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March 2012: Earth's 16th warmest on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:30 PM GMT on April 25, 2012

March 2012 was the globe's 16th warmest March on record, but the coolest March since 1999, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). March 2012 was the 17th warmest on record, according to NASA. March 2012 global land temperatures were the 18th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 14th warmest on record. The relatively cool global temperatures were due, in part, to the lingering effects of the La Niña event in the Eastern Pacific that is now ending. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were near average, the 17th or 11th warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). March temperatures in the stratosphere were the 1st or 2nd coldest on record. We expect cold temperatures there due to the greenhouse effect and to destruction of ozone due to CFC pollution. Northern Hemisphere snow cover during March was near average, ranking 23rd largest (24th smallest) in the 46-year record. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, has a comprehensive post on the notable weather events of March in his March 2012 Global Weather Extremes Summary. Notably, Norway, Iceland, and Scotland all recorded their hottest March temperatures on record, and it was the warmest March in U.S. history. Portions of Italy received no measurable precipitation whatsoever, and for most of southern Europe, it was the driest March on record. In the U.K. it was the driest March since 1953.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2012. The U.S. and Canada experienced the most extreme warmth of anywhere in the globe during March. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) .

La Niña conditions no longer present
La Niña conditions are no longer present in the equatorial Pacific, where sea surface temperatures were approximately 0.4°C below average during March and the the first half of April. The threshold for a La Niña is for these temperatures to be 0.5°C below average or cooler. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts that La Niña will be gone by the end of April. The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic.


Figure 2. Ice age data show that first-year ice made up 75% of the Arctic sea ice cover this March. Thicker multi-year ice used to make up around a quarter of the Arctic sea ice cover. Now it constitutes only 2%. Image credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

March Arctic sea ice extent ninth lowest on record
Arctic sea ice extent was at its ninth lowest extent on record in March, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). This was the highest since 2008 and one of the highest March extents in the past decade. Ice extent as of April 23 was close to average, one of the few times during the past decade that has occurred. However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic. During the 1980s, more than 20% of the Arctic ice was more than 4 years old; this March, that fraction was just 2%. Satellite sea ice records date back to 1979.

I'll have a new post by Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great post Doc!
ice will be gone by summer of 2015


thanks for the update doc
wow that speaks to just how fast we may be free of all Arctic sea ice. If someone had made this chart in 83' they would have been committed. It would have been deemed an impossibility. Great post, yet terrifying in so many ways.
Those Arctic Sea ice age charts are startling--and should be. The fact that the current extent/area is so reliant on thin and brittle first-year ice is very telling. There are but a few skinny strips of the oldest and thickest multi-year ice left, and much of that will be flushed southward through the Fram Strait, where it melts in the warmer waters of the Atlantic.

It's fascinating. Very sad. But fascinating...
Does this mean we have escaped the next ice age, which in theory, would be a good thing; or does this mean we're at a tipping point and what may happen next is anybody's guess? AKA could losing all this ice coverage actually trigger the next ice age. Love the insight and input from all of you, thanks.
America looks just like one giant red dot.


Storm Prediction Center not as confident in their MCS development today as they were last night...sigh  

RECENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAVE BRED
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. MOISTURE QUALITY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH 12Z REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF ONLY 6-9 G/KG.
THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY
IMPACT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS TODAY.
FINALLY...THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM IMPULSE MAY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FAIRLY EARLY
TODAY...PRIOR TO ENVIRONMENT SUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZING
.




Quoting Tribucanes:
Does this mean we have escaped the next ice age, which in theory, would be a good thing; or does this mean we're at a tipping point and what may happen next is anybody's guess? AKA could losing all this ice coverage actually trigger the next ice age. Love the insight and input from all of you, thanks.


.
And I wonder what our options are? If not triggering another ice age will we have rapid sea rise, global water shortages, new pandemics, rapid rise in insect populations, rapid desert creation; which will lead to global food shortages, and that's just for starters. This is what I've read is likely. I'm looking for you out of the box thinkers........just how bad could this get and how fast could it happen?
Thanks for the insulting comment, really, your classy. Looking to gain knowledge, not all of us know it all like you so clearly do. Insulting seekers of knowledge who come here to learn from the sharp minds here is a good way to only have only "know it alls" at this site, which is I'm sure not Jeff's aim. So how bout you don't be a jerk, it's not nice, thanks.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Thanks for the insulting comment, really, your classy. Looking to gain knowledge, not all of us know it all like you so clearly do. Insulting seekers of knowledge who come here to learn from the sharp minds here is a good way to only have only "know it alls" at this site, which is I'm sure not Jeff's aim. So how bout you don't be a jerk, it's not nice, thanks.


I've been on here a fairly long time, and when someone comes on this blog with a recent join date making ridiculous comments about a new ice age, it raises red flags about whether they are a troll or not. I'm not sure yet if you are or not, but to be honest, the way it seems so far I'm leaning towards you are. I would hope you would prove me wrong though, and that you are honestly here to learn.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Looks like from the data posted that the ice is soon to be gone.
This is a tragedy.
Thanks again.
Don't want to cause trouble on here, just annoyed with the constant denialist trolls, that's all...



Look at the remains of 91L generating some convection...
Doing a little research, I see that 2011 had a total of 15 days on which there were 500 or more high (or high minimum) temperature records, and six days on which there were 500 or more low (or low maximum) records. Meanwhile, for 2012, there have already been 15 days on which there were 500 or more high temp records, and zero days with 500 or more low records (the most so far has been 173).

This summer is going to be interesting...
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I've been on here a fairly long time, and when someone comes on this blog with a recent join date making ridiculous comments about a new ice age, it raises red flags about whether they are a troll or not. I'm not sure yet if you are or not, but to be honest, the way it seems so far I'm leaning towards you are. I would hope you would prove me wrong though, and that you are honestly here to learn.


Seriously? This person is just making comments to create discussion on the effects of the loss of Artic sea ice. I don't smell a troll. Their odor usually wreaks something fierce. Until he crosses the line, I say give them a chance. New ice age comments are by no means ridiculous. I believe it's normal for one to ponder those types of things with the nature of this particular blog post by Dr. JM. Lighten up!
5,8,9:

To date, most of your comments have been incendiary in nature, which is the hallmark of a troll. I'm not expressly accusing you of trolling, mind you... it is just a quick take of your posts so far. (heck, some of my posts could be considered troll-ish) Talking about an ice age starting in a marked warming trend is kinda like asking when our next drought will be during a long wet period.

That said... we're already seeing some of the effects of a warmer world, with more fighting over resources, some sea level rise (the nation of Kiribati is close to being in a world of hurt, for example), and more volatile weather. Right now, many of the effects can be dismissed as "just a natural cycle", but eventually, it will become markedly apparent that this isn't just "some cycle". Allow me to list off some of the real-life instances of the effects you listed:

rapid sea rise - The nation of Kiribati is close to losing their islands to the sea
global water shortages - droughts are becoming more commonplace, and severe.
new pandemics - H1N1, SARS
rapid rise in insect populations - I'll have to do more research on this one, I remember a locust outbreak recently, just can't remember where.
rapid desert creation - The Sahara is rapidly encroaching on the Sahel, at an alarming pace
global food shortages - East Africa (need I go on with this?)
And yet, I see you took you insulting comment down or it was removed. If you go back to my post history you will see nothing but pluses. I may ask the silly question here and there, so sorry. Being a jerk is no way to conduct yourself. I try to inject a little humor and ask a few thought provoking questions; I am so glad you aren't the norm here.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Doing a little research, I see that 2011 had a total of 15 days on which there were 500 or more high (or high minimum) temperature records, and six days on which there were 500 or more low (or low maximum) records. Meanwhile, for 2012, there have already been 15 days on which there were 500 or more high temp records, and zero days with 500 or more low records (the most so far has been 173).

This summer is going to be interesting...


Despite all of this, James Lovelock is now acting like global warming won't be that big of a deal. I'm very disappointed in this. He was the first to really open my eyes to this issue, when he predicted it would cull the earth's population to 500 million by the end of the century. Now he claims it hasn't warmed in 12 years and that we will see no more than 1 or 2C of warming, and that would be harmless. I don't know what data he's looking at to cause such an abrupt about-face in his thinking. 2010 and 2005 are the warmest years on record. We've seen shrinking ice caps, unprecedented heat waves, droughts, and flooding in the years since his book was published. As recent as 2010, he still seemed on board for the doomsday vision. The only thing I can think of is senility (he's 92) or he's being bought and paid for by big oil. Either that or he never actually believed what he said in the past, but only said it to sell copies of his book and gain attention.
Quoting Tribucanes:
And yet, I see you took you insulting comment down or it was removed. If you go back to my post history you will see nothing but pluses. I may ask the silly question here and there, so sorry. Being a jerk is no way to conduct yourself. I try to inject a little humor and ask a few thought provoking questions; I am so glad you aren't the norm here.

Just to be devil's advocate... getting lots of pluses is good... but not indicative of quality posting by itself. (I've seen troll posts get pluses because they are funny, for example)

I've also personally removed comments that I've made when they are proven to be incorrect or unfounded, as I don't want to sow confusion on the blog.

Ok, now I'm done being devil's advocate, please continue posting. :)
Ya Jeffs I have no problem with you. I very well may have taken your comments out of context when you were speaking about that lady in Florida. Thought it was judgmental and sexist. I did what you asked, I went back and saw it was part of a larger conversation, so I don't believe that about you at all. Sorry for my judgmental comment about you. I'm looking for intelligent commentary and to learn and to inform sometimes. I love this site Jeff does a great job.
Quoting ClimateChange:


Despite all of this, James Lovelock is now acting like global warming won't be that big of a deal. I'm very disappointed in this. He was the first to really open my eyes to this issue, when he predicted it would cull the earth's population to 500 million by the end of the century. Now he claims it hasn't warmed in 12 years and that we will see no more than 1 or 2C of warming, and that would be harmless. I don't know what data he's looking at to cause such an abrupt about-face in his thinking. 2010 and 2005 are the warmest years on record. We've seen shrinking ice caps, unprecedented heat waves, droughts, and flooding in the years since his book was published. As recent as 2010, he still seemed on board for the doomsday vision. The only thing I can think of is senility (he's 92) or he's being bought and paid for by big oil. Either that or he never actually believed what he said in the past, but only said it to sell copies of his book and gain attention.
We talked about Lovelock a bit yesterday. In short, his personal pendulum was almost always too alarmist for most climate scientists, and now that he's turned 92, that pendulum seems to have gone too far the other direction. (For instance, claiming that there's been no warming since 2000 is bizarrely wrong.) Too, it's unfair for him to lump people such as Al Gore in with himself when looking at his early alarmism; Gore never came close to predicting the illogical catastrophes that Lovelock did.
Quoting Tribucanes:
And yet, I see you took you insulting comment down or it was removed. If you go back to my post history you will see nothing but pluses. I may ask the silly question here and there, so sorry. Being a jerk is no way to conduct yourself. I try to inject a little humor and ask a few thought provoking questions; I am so glad you aren't the norm here.


Yeah I did remove the post. I might have jumped the gun and cried "troll" when you might not be one. Consider it an apology, as I don't like to start stuff and hurl insults. Time will tell whether that original post was warranted or not.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yeah I did remove the post. I might have jumped the gun and cried "troll" when you might not be one. Consider it an apology, as I don't like to start stuff and hurl insults. Time will tell whether that original post was warranted or not.
I've done the same thing before, it's all too easy to assume someone's a troll because there are so many of them. He may have been referring to the theory that rapid arctic ice melt would flood the Atlantic Conveyor with fresh water, effectively shutting it down and stopping the transport of warmer water from the equatorial regions.
Quoting BigTuna:
I've done the same thing before, it's all too easy to assume someone's a troll because there are so many of them. He may have been referring to the theory that rapid arctic ice melt would flood the Atlantic Conveyor with fresh water, effectively shutting it down and stopping the transport of warmer water from the equatorial regions.


Agreed! Wasn't there a movie about that? The day after tomorrow? or something
All good no hard feelings! I'm sure your a great guy.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Agreed! Wasn't there a movie about that? The day after tomorrow? or something

Yep. And The Day After Tomorrow was SO ridiculously far off base in terms of science it was mildly amusing. Yes, massive freshwater flows would disrupt the Gulf Stream. But it wouldn't spin up massive polar storms. Or pull down stratospheric super-chilled air. (It would, however, really ruin the day in the UK)]

In regards to disrupting global currents... LOL. The arctic has two major cold water drainage points - the Bering Sea and around Greenland. The drainage via the Bering sea actually drives a major current, and would only enhance the California current, so no biggie there. (it would, in theory, strengthen the PDO, tho) Around Greenland, it would disrupt the Gulf Stream some, but not "shut it down". Most cold water currents actually sink to the bottom, or at least lower layers, so they don't have as large of an effect on global currents - they actually DRIVE some of the warm-water currents.
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Agreed! Wasn't there a movie about that? The day after tomorrow? or something


Is this déjà vu, because I swear that movie was being talked about two days ago....?
Quoting TXMegaWatt:


Agreed! Wasn't there a movie about that? The day after tomorrow? or something
It appears so. It looks like they took the general idea and made it completely implausible, Hollywood-style. If the theory is true the reality would fortunately be much less dramatic.
The Weather Channel 2012 Hurricane Forecast.

...SEASON`S LAST SHOT OF COOL AIR?...

Excerpt:

COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE LAST TWO MORNINGS
ARE A REMINDER THAT SUMMER`S PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE STILL
A FEW WEEKS AWAY. TEMPERATURES BOTH THIS MORNING AND YESTERDAY
MORNING DROPPED INTO THE 40S OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TO THE 50S OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA METRO AREAS.
ONLY IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MIAMI
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FAILED TO DROP BELOW 60 DEGREES.

HOW UNUSUAL ARE THESE TEMPERATURES IN LATE APRIL? FROM A RECORD
PERSPECTIVE, IT CERTAINLY IS! WEST PALM BEACH SET A DAILY RECORD LOW
OF 53 DEGREES YESTERDAY MORNING, BREAKING THE OLD RECORD OF 55 SET
BACK IN 1998. WEST PALM BEACH ALSO TIED THEIR RECORD "LOW MAXIMUM"
YESTERDAY WITH AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF ONLY 75 DEGREES. NAPLES ALSO
ESTABLISHED A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE WHEN THEY ONLY REACHED
74 DEGREES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE TO THE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE RUN
ABOUT 8 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. FOR MID-WINTER, THESE DEPARTURES
FROM NORMAL WOULDN`T BE THAT UNUSUAL, BUT FOR LATE APRIL WHEN
TEMPERATURE VARIABILITY IS LOWER, IT IS MORE SIGNIFICANT.
Re: #17, remember there was the finding a couple years back ---- that the much-trumpeted stats showing that temps in the Tropics were NOT warming year-after-year --- turned out to be because the satellites originally measuring daytime maximums in the Tropics, had slowed their orbital speed and begun measuring/reporting nighttime temps instead. So years of data showing "no increase in daytime maximums in the Tropics" turned out to be bogus -- but only after denialists had for years used the bad data to make a lot of arguments.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #17, remember there was the finding a couple years back ---- that the much-trumpeted stats showing that temps in the Tropics were NOT warming year-after-year --- turned out to be because the satellites originally measuring daytime maximums in the Tropics, had slowed their orbital speed and begun measuring/reporting nighttime temps instead. So years of data showing "no increase in daytime maximums in the Tropics" turned out to be bogus -- but only after denialists had for years used the bad data to make a lot of arguments.


Citation please
Pretty warm around here as well. Even for Texas :)







Temperatures above normal in 2012
Posted: Apr 24, 2012 9:09 PM CDT Updated: Apr 24, 2012 9:09 PM CDT
By Patrick Vaughn


Every month in 2012 has averaged warmer than normal.

In January, the average low temperature was 50...the average normal low is 43 or 7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 71...the average normal high temperature is 62 or 9 degrees above normal. Averaging the all the lows and highs together you get a monthly temperature of 7 degrees above normal.

In February, the average low temperature was 52...the average normal low is 47 or 5 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 67...the average normal high temperature is 65 or 2 degrees above normal. Averaging the all the lows and highs together you get a monthly temperature of 4 degrees above normal.

In March, the average low temperature was 59...the average normal low is 52 or 7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 78...the average normal high temperature is 72 or 6 degrees above normal. Averaging the all the lows and highs together you get a monthly temperature of 7 degrees above normal.

So far in April, the average low temperature have been 62...the average normal low is 55 or 7 degrees above normal. The average high temperature has been 80...the average normal high temperature is 78 or 2 degrees above normal. Averaging the all the lows and highs together you get a monthly temperature of 3 degrees above normal.

So far this year, we are averaging 5.3 degrees above normal.
2nd consecutive day for Kansas seeing 90-95 for highs.  Records will likely be set again today.


No ice by 2015! it was suppose to be this year,Prince Charles said the world would melt this year and the Mayan's said 2012!!!Al Gore said the earth was a million degree's hot!!We are standing on a boiling pot of mud!!Polar bear populations are way up this year according to the experts!Wind turbines are killing birds by the thousands!!Man is eating animals,we have not had a major hurricane in 7 years,Europe had the worst winter in years ,record cold in Alaska!!All the money in world being directed to global warming experts for their UTOPIA SOCIETY WHERE WE ALL BOW DOWN TO THE ELITES!!ALL hail the king's of earth!!
Quoting help4u:
No ice by 2015! it was suppose to be this year,Prince Charles said the world would melt this year and the Mayan's said 2012!!!Al Gore said the earth was a million degree's hot!!We are standing on a boiling pot of mud!!Polar bear populations are way up this year according to the experts!Wind turbines are killing birds by the thousands!!Man is eating animals,we have not had a major hurricane in 7 years,Europe had the worst winter in years ,record cold in Alaska!!All the money in world being directed to global warming experts for their UTOPIA SOCIETY WHERE WE ALL BOW DOWN TO THE ELITES!!ALL hail the king's of earth!!


I cannot help my chuckling :) Preach on brotha!
Quoting ILwthrfan:
2nd consecutive day for Kansas seeing 90-95 for highs.  Records will likely be set again today.




Wow! We haven't gotten near 90 yet. Although other parts of the state have. But Kansas!
Quoting help4u:
No ice by 2015! it was suppose to be this year,Prince Charles said the world would melt this year and the Mayan's said 2012!!!Al Gore said the earth was a million degree's hot!!We are standing on a boiling pot of mud!!Polar bear populations are way up this year according to the experts!Wind turbines are killing birds by the thousands!!Man is eating animals,we have not had a major hurricane in 7 years,Europe had the worst winter in years ,record cold in Alaska!!All the money in world being directed to global warming experts for their UTOPIA SOCIETY WHERE WE ALL BOW DOWN TO THE ELITES!!ALL hail the king's of earth!!


LMAO
I think help4u is slowly becoming unhinged... their rants have become less and less attached to this thing called "reality". It is partially amusing, partially irritating, and partially sad.

(I find the statement "Man is eating animals" the most amusing, since we've been doing that for oh... a few million years.)
Quoting jeffs713:
I think help4u is slowly becoming unhinged... their rants have become less and less attached to this thing called "reality". It is partially amusing, partially irritating, and partially sad.

(I find the statement "Man is eating animals" the most amusing, since we've been doing that for oh... a few million years.)


His mayan calendar has kicked in a lil early
Quoting help4u:
No ice by 2015! it was suppose to be this year,Prince Charles said the world would melt this year and the Mayan's said 2012!!!Al Gore said the earth was a million degree's hot!!We are standing on a boiling pot of mud!!Polar bear populations are way up this year according to the experts!Wind turbines are killing birds by the thousands!!Man is eating animals,we have not had a major hurricane in 7 years,Europe had the worst winter in years ,record cold in Alaska!!All the money in world being directed to global warming experts for their UTOPIA SOCIETY WHERE WE ALL BOW DOWN TO THE ELITES!!ALL hail the king's of earth!!
In kind--you know, to help with your comprehension:

Prince Charles isn't a climate scientist and neither were the Mayans!!!Al Gore isn't either and also degrees doesn't require an apostrophe!!Not sure what you mean about the boiling pot of mud!Some polar bear populations are up thanks to conservation efforts!Oil pollution kills people by the tens of thousands!!What does man eating animals have to do with anything?!We had major hurricanes last year! And this year!!!Europe had a very mild winter in spite of the cold snap that lasted all of two weeks!!!Yes it was cold in Alaska this winter; it's often cold in Alaska in winter or so I've been told!!!The five largest oil companies alone last year made $100 billion in profit which isn't "all the money in the world" but I think it's probably a lot more than global warming experts made!!!!!Is your space bar broken I have to ask because you seem a tad unfamiliar with it!!!!! Also, "kings" doesn't need an apostrophe, either.
Quoting Neapolitan:
In kind--you know, to help with your comprehension:

Prince Charles isn't a climate scientist and neither were the Mayans!!!Al Gore isn't either and also degrees doesn't require an apostrophe!!Not sure what you mean about the boiling pot of mud!Some polar bear populations are up thanks to conservation efforts!Oil pollution kills people by the tens of thousands!!What does man eating animals have to do with anything?!We had major hurricanes last year! And this year!!!Europe had a very mild winter in spite of the cold snap that lasted all of two weeks!!!Yes it was cold in Alaska this winter; it's often cold in Alaska in winter or so I've been told!!!The five largest oil companies alone last year made $100 billion in profit which isn't "all the money in the world" but I think it's probably a lot more than global warming experts made!!!!!Is your space bar broken I have to ask because you seem a tad unfamiliar with it!!!!! Also, "kings" doesn't need an apostrophe, either.


I've said it before I think thats Joe Bastardi. That would sound like his post if he were to post one. Infact last week he was recruiting people to weatherbell so that right there makes me think it's him.

Quoting help4u:
No ice by 2015! it was suppose to be this year,Prince Charles said the world would melt this year and the Mayan's said 2012!!!Al Gore said the earth was a million degree's hot!!We are standing on a boiling pot of mud!!Polar bear populations are way up this year according to the experts!Wind turbines are killing birds by the thousands!!Man is eating animals,we have not had a major hurricane in 7 years,Europe had the worst winter in years ,record cold in Alaska!!All the money in world being directed to global warming experts for their UTOPIA SOCIETY WHERE WE ALL BOW DOWN TO THE ELITES!!ALL hail the king's of earth!!


everything will change in a blink of an eye
climate shift is and has been occuring for some time now since 2005 anyway and as we progress further along the change will become more pronounce things are happening faster than anyone ever expected


faster and faster we are going
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


We've hit 90 I think 11 times at my place so far this year and it looks like we may add some more the rest of the week as today the high is projected at 84 then 89 tomorrow and Friday.
Good morning all...i. Can't believe it....only 2% of the sea ice is over 4 years old, we may have an iceless summer in the artic sooner than expected
Quoting help4u:


maybe there truly is nohelp4u
The models are getting downright interesting as something may try to spin up near SE FL.


After having lived for 25 years in Miami, Florida, I moved since five years down to Colombia, which is a Country almost in the Equator line: the frontier between the North and South Pole. Colombian naturals do not have a definition as to what the four seasons are, but they use the term " invierno " (winter) for two times in the year, because during these two times it rains a lot and also because Colombia is a mostly mountainous country and therefore the roads around the mountains get interrupted due to slides and cities near rivers get flooded. The infraestructure is very undeveloped and consequently it is a nightmare when with this new "free trade agreement" more trucks want to reach from and to the port at the coast. Literally the freight costs are cheaper between China and Colombia than from the coast of Colombia to the Capital city. In satellite pictures of the Earth I see a circle of clouds forming around the Earth precisly where this country lies. So, the point is that after 25 years of living in a hurricane zone, now I have to adapt to this new weather behavior. And today, almost begining May a cold front is coming from the North aproaching Colombia while coming from down of the Faulkland Islands another cold front wants to reach Colombia to colide head to head with the one coming from the North and here where I sit at the belly button of the Earth (where it is very hot) all hell will break loose tonight. Check the wunderground satellite picture for tonight on this region!
Thanks !

And regards from Vientoenpopa (tail wind )

And here something to enjoy :

http://youtu.be/DJ73aj6FkXw
Quoting StormTracker2K:


We've hit 90 I think 11 times at my place so far this year and it looks like we may add some more the rest of the week as today the high is projected at 84 then 89 tomorrow and Friday.


Guess I better stay in Texas where it's cool lol. And windy. :)

Quoting Tribucanes:
If we are to bow down to the elite it's because in the last ten years 46 trillion is what the top one percenters have raked in, while debt based economies head towards insolvency. The elite fight climate change realities at every turn with propaganda and every increasing funds. Not to mention Christians have been hoodwinked in this country horribly. If your a moral or fiscal conservative I don't see how you vote for the right. Morally they've taken us into unconstitutional wars, and fiscally they've given hundreds of billions to the top five percent, while the middle class has been gutted and the poor ignored. Would Christ tells us to give to the rich and ignore the most needy, I think not. Propaganda and sheeple thinking has led us to this abyss . We are the most entertained country in the world. That's why so few get the facts, get involved, and make a real difference. I'm a conservative Christian, but I choose not to take the ostrich stance. I could morally rail against the left for days, but at least they aren't the Right Wing monster that's taken our national wealth and many peoples' ability to think for themselves.


and the relevance to this weather blog is?
April 24, 2011

April 24, 2012
April 24, 2011

April 24, 2012
I think We've probably seen our last gasp of winter. Just hoping these rain chances don't become the norm... again!

ONLY MINOR DAY TO DAY VARIATIONS IN THE TEMPLATE OUTLINED ABOVE
ARE EXPECTED AS THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY STAGNANT...WHILE
THE PATTERN ALOFT IS GENERALLY ONE OF RIDGING. ECMWF HAS BACKED
AWAY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS THAT SHOWED A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE
REGION OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS OF MAINTAINING THE
STATUS QUO. MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES...WHICH WERE ALREADY
SMALL...HAVE BEEN EXPUNGED FROM THE FORECAST.
To reply to the right rant was the purpose and to further explain why so many Americans buy into the lies of the right. If you want to understand why so many on the right don't believe in climate change, this I was hoping would be helpful. Feel free to ignore, report, or enjoy.
Link

Morning Nigel, This is that storm in the WPAC
Quoting PedleyCA:
Link

Morning Nigel, This is that storm in the WPAC

Good morning pedley...thanks much
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Quoting help4u:


maybe there truly is nohelp4u


Absolutely none
Quoting MrNatural:


and the relevance to this weather blog is?
Maybe... somehow relates to the global debate on warming and, in the U.S. anyway, how "green," which 35 years ago meant "concern for the environment," has somehow become a synonym for liberal, no matter one's political stance. Could be it's just the head chasing the tail of a blogger who's trying to figure out what this debate is all about. I can sure relate to that.

Maybe it's time to hold hands and dance a Merry Minuet.
I wonder if all global warming believing parents send their kids to school on the bus.... You know, carpooling and stuff. :)

On a more weathery note, it is finally warm again in GA.
I was starting to get cold.
Highs in the 80s for the foreseeable future.
MJO coming around:

Later all
Quoting nigel20:
Good morning all...i. Can't believe it....only 2% of the sea ice is over 4 years old, we may have an iceless summer in the artic sooner than expected
Absolutely.. The ice at the North Pole is melting faster than expected.. There were scientists around 30 years ago that said the ice caps at the North pole and Greenland would melt faster than predicted, and would increase exponentially as time went on. This process will only speed up now, this is proof enough I think...
Ice - Surface melting revealed by the North Pole Environmental Observatory


Sea Ice | North Pole Observations | Glaciers | Snow Cover

Since 2002, the multi-agency USA-Japan joint project entitled "North Pole Environmental Observatory" (NPEO) has deployed Web Cameras along with instruments that monitor air, ice and ocean conditions. These Web Cams provide an otherwise unobtainable view of sea ice conditions throughout the Arctic summer.

The summers observed by the North Pole Web Cams were very different, as seen in the table below. A brief commentary for each observation year follows the table. You can also see the ice conditions animated in YouTube videos.August 18, 2002
Widespread melt pond coverage was not observedJuly-7-2011......Widespread
Melt pond coverage...This IS the North Pole folks..Anyone doubting that the Earth is getting warmer needs to check the latest findings...Soon enough there will be irrefutable evidence that mankind has a part in it. To what extent we contributed to it with a certain degree of accuracy will be no easy task.
The commonalities that bind us have been broken by this left vs right false doctrine of no agreement on anything ever. It's a discourse that only serves to further the interest of the elite. Being "green" is now only attributed to the left, which is of coarse crazy. We must remember that the major newspapers, news channels, all radio stations, are controlled by five, that's right five, corporations; aka: the elite. We have been pitted against each other by the powers that be, and many have taken the chum thrown off the back of the boat. Problem is most people who aren't open to seeking truth will only go to sites that back up what they already believe. There should be NO argument on global warming, and among scientists there really isn't. Over 97 percent of those in the field agree it's happening and happening fast. The facts support nothing else. And yet the counterargument gets just as much face time in the media. The truth will set us free, and lies will bind us to ignorance of the truth.
Quoting hydrus:
Absolutely.. The ice at the North Pole is melting faster than expected.. There were scientists around 30 years ago that said the ice caps at the North pole and Greenland would melt faster than predicted, and would increase exponentially as time went on. This process will only speed up now, this is proof enough I think...
Ice - Surface melting revealed by the North Pole Environmental Observatory


Sea Ice | North Pole Observations | Glaciers | Snow Cover

Since 2002, the multi-agency USA-Japan joint project entitled "North Pole Environmental Observatory" (NPEO) has deployed Web Cameras along with instruments that monitor air, ice and ocean conditions. These Web Cams provide an otherwise unobtainable view of sea ice conditions throughout the Arctic summer.

The summers observed by the North Pole Web Cams were very different, as seen in the table below. A brief commentary for each observation year follows the table. You can also see the ice conditions animated in YouTube videos.August 18, 2002
Widespread melt pond coverage was not observedJuly-7-2011......Widespread
Melt pond coverage...This IS the North Pole folks..Anyone doubting that the the Earth is getting warmer needs to check the latest findings...Soon enough there will be irrefutable evidence that mankind has a part in it. To what extent we contributed to it with a certain degree of accuracy will be no easy task.
was watching a program this last weekend, among other things it said, many countries are already mapping out and securing area's thru the northwest passage which is Now..ice blocked, so they KNOW, the ice will be gone
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The models are getting downright interesting as something may try to spin up near SE FL.




The CMC is on board







Quoting nigel20:
Good morning all...i. Can't believe it....only 2% of the sea ice is over 4 years old, we may have an iceless summer in the artic sooner than expected
the north pole isnt what people should be worried about..its the South they really should be concerned with..3 miles thick in places and if IT goes..the oceans rise 60 meters..gotta love those scientific shows on the weekends..just really know how to make you feel good huh..well anyway by the time it does happen i'll be poof i guess
clipped this from"how stuff works" but lots of other sites say the same thing..............The main ice covered landmass is Antarctica at the South Pole, with about 90 percent of the world's ice (and 70 percent of its fresh water). Antarctica is covered with ice an average of 2,133 meters (7,000 feet) thick. If all of the Antarctic ice melted, sea levels around the world would rise about 61 meters (200 feet). But the average temperature in Antarctica is -37°C, so the ice there is in no danger of melting. In fact in most parts of the continent it never gets above freezing.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Does this mean we have escaped the next ice age, which in theory, would be a good thing; or does this mean we're at a tipping point and what may happen next is anybody's guess? AKA could losing all this ice coverage actually trigger the next ice age. Love the insight and input from all of you, thanks.



I'll see if I can field this one for you.

We had been, as I understand it, heading toward another ice some time far into the future. Tens/hundreds of thousands years from now.

What we seem to have done is created a short term hot spell. We've screwed ourselves to a moderate degree by trapping enough heat to increase average global temperature, storm strength, rain intensity, drought intensity and a few other things that will be butt kickers. We're in the process of melting out glaciers which will rob hundreds of millions of their water supplies. We're increasing the height of the oceans which is going to flood coastal areas. We're probably going to lose some of our most productive agricultural land and have to make do with low quality rocky replacement areas.

And that's if we stop burning fossil fuels really, really soon. Like this afternoon.

Since we won't stop burning fossil fuels rapidly we'll further screw things up, making hot times hotter, wet times wetter and dry times dryer. The planet will become a less enjoyable place to live.

Now, I think by 2050 we will have gotten the message and either have cut our fossil fuel to close to zero or will be there soon after. The question remains as to how bad things will get at the peak. Could be very nasty.

Then, about 40 years of so after we quit fossil fuels the climate will start mellowing out once more. Over a few decades the climate will return to roughly 1850 conditions and continue on toward the next scheduled ice age.

What kind of shape we humans are in after this next 40 - 100 years is anyone's guess. We could, worst case, be down to a very small breeding population huddled in "biospheres" close to the poles. The larger number of us could lose out and get wiped out as we compete for the last livable parts of the globe.

Or we could get our act together over the next 20 or so years and turn to renewable energy and, with some luck, dodge the worst. We might get by with only abandoning our lowest, most flood prone real estate and our most drought hit areas.

Quoting LargoFl:
clipped this from"how stuff works" but lots of other sites say the same thing..............The main ice covered landmass is Antarctica at the South Pole, with about 90 percent of the world's ice (and 70 percent of its fresh water). Antarctica is covered with ice an average of 2,133 meters (7,000 feet) thick. If all of the Antarctic ice melted, sea levels around the world would rise about 61 meters (200 feet). But the average temperature in Antarctica is -37°C, so the ice there is in no danger of melting. In fact in most parts of the continent it never gets above freezing.
just imagine, if the temps rise...what is it, half the worlds population lives near a coast?..how many cities are above..200 feet?....something real scary to think about huh...if this would happen..WHERE would half the worldfs population go?...WW3 it would big on such a grand scale i dont want to ever be around for it.
Quoting LargoFl:
was watching a program this last weekend, among other things it said, many countries are already mapping out and securing area's thru the northwest passage which is Now..ice blocked, so they KNOW, the ice will be gone
I understand what your saying in post# 67, but the North Pole should still be monitored.....Commentary:

The onset of melting is typically in early June, but occurred in late July in 2002, and late June in 2003 and 2004. The Web Cam images show very limited melt pond coverage in 2002, but widespread melt pond coverage in 2003 and 2004. In 2003, the melt ponds were widespread by July 4, but diminished in late July, and then reformed in mid-August. Freezeup began in late August in 2002, Sept 7 in 2003, and in mid-August in 2004.

Summer sea ice transition information was not available for 2005 or 2007.

In 2008, the snow became waterlogged June 25, and extensive meltponds formed quickly, only five days later (June 30). Meltponds are still observed August 25 in standard web cam images. After that time, the only clear images are from another webcam with a fisheye lens observing sky conditions, but also revealing snow conditions. Meltponds are visible on the fisheye image from September 14. Although further images are at least partially obscured by water drops or snow on the lens, there appears to be snow cover in an image from Sepember 22. In summary, in 2008, the onset of melt progressed more quickly than in previous years, and melt ponds persisted longer and later than usual.

In 2009, the snow became soft and meltponds started to form July 8, but never became very widespread, with the maximum meltpond extent observed around July 14-16. Meltponds were closing over by Aug 11, but small slits of open water were still visible Sept 8. After that date, only one image was received from the web cam, on Sept 25, at which time the melt ponds were all snowcovered. In summary, in 2009, onset of melt was later than most years (later only in 2002). Meltpond coverage was less widespread than any year observed by the web cams other than 2002, but the snow remained soft later than most years (at least through Sept 8).

In 2010, the snow became soft Jun 25, similar to many other years, but widespread meltponds formed by Jun 27, earlier than in any of the other years observed by the webcams. Freezeup began Aug 12 and meltponds were covered by Aug 23.

"Web cams show more melt ponds than last year, but less than in other recent years. This is in spite of there having been more snow in April 2010 than the previous 2 springs. For the most part, the ice at both 2010 Web Cam locations looks fairly well drained, presumably contributing to increased albedo - As evidenced by the number of times we have seen the 2010 melt ponds freeze over already, we think the early summer input of heat to the ice from the atmosphere is less than average". From July 13, 2010 discussion by J. Morison and N. Untersteiner (University of Washington) in the Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Outlook in the SEARCH Sea Ice Outlook.

In 2011, the Arctic lost sea ice very rapidly in the first half of July. Ice loss slowed in late July-early August, but resumed again later in August. The September 2011 sea ice minimum was at or near a record low.

Find more information:

The North Pole Environmental Observatory (NPEO)
The North Pole Web Cam
The Puzzling Arctic Summer or 2003, observed by the N. Pole Web Cam
The Short Arctic Summer of 2004, observed by the N. Pole Web Cam


Awards
About the Arctic Change Indicator website | http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/detect
arctic.webmaster@noaa.gov
NOAA Arctic website, http://www.arctic.noaa.gov...Here is a link....Link
Quoting LargoFl:
clipped this from"how stuff works" but lots of other sites say the same thing..............The main ice covered landmass is Antarctica at the South Pole, with about 90 percent of the world's ice (and 70 percent of its fresh water). Antarctica is covered with ice an average of 2,133 meters (7,000 feet) thick. If all of the Antarctic ice melted, sea levels around the world would rise about 61 meters (200 feet). But the average temperature in Antarctica is -37°C, so the ice there is in no danger of melting. In fact in most parts of the continent it never gets above freezing.


Warm ocean driving Antarctic ice loss

Excerpt:

"Previously, you would have thought that we needed a lot of warming in the atmosphere to get a substantial loss of ice from Antarctica - because it's such a cold place. But what we show is that that's not necessary; you don't need radical change.

"All you need are quite subtle changes - such as a change in the winds - and that can produce effects at the edges of Antarctica that then lead to a loss of a lot of ice."
thanks for that prognosis.
thanks for fielding my question and for your prognosis.
Low pressure brewing near Panama at the tail end of front?
Quoting Tribucanes:
Does this mean we have escaped the next ice age, which in theory, would be a good thing; or does this mean we're at a tipping point and what may happen next is anybody's guess? AKA could losing all this ice coverage actually trigger the next ice age. Love the insight and input from all of you, thanks.


The only way an ice age could result from this is if there was one or more strong negative feedbacks that could be induced from warmer temperatures. The current research, both from modern physical studies as well as paleoclimate studies, shows that at best any negative feedbacks act to reduce the amount of warming, not prohibit or reverse it.
Quoting LargoFl:
was watching a program this last weekend, among other things it said, many countries are already mapping out and securing area's thru the northwest passage which is Now..ice blocked, so they KNOW, the ice will be gone
There are already passages they could take. It is still a risky task. There are bergy bits, growlers and hidden ice to deal with. It is extremely dangerous and can sink a large ship with ease.
Re: #31 - sorry, could not get to this sooner.

From SCIENCE magazine, 2 September 2005:
The Effect of Diurnal Correction
on Satellite-Derived Lower
Tropospheric Temperature, by
Carl A. Mears and Frank J. Wentz

Article header/summary reads: "Satellite-based measurements of decadal-scale temperature change in the lower troposphere have indicated cooling relative to Earth’s surface in the tropics. Such
measurements need a diurnal correction to prevent drifts in the satellites’ measurement time from causing spurious trends. We have derived a diurnal correction that, in the tropics, is of the opposite sign from that previously applied. When we use this correction in the calculation of lower tropospheric temperature from satellite microwave measurements, we find tropical warming consistent with that found at the surface and in our satellite-derived version of middle/upper tropospheric temperature."

Though several years hence, now, this was the incident that had stuck in my mind.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Warm ocean driving Antarctic ice loss

Excerpt:

"Previously, you would have thought that we needed a lot of warming in the atmosphere to get a substantial loss of ice from Antarctica - because it's such a cold place. But what we show is that that's not necessary; you don't need radical change.

"All you need are quite subtle changes - such as a change in the winds - and that can produce effects at the edges of Antarctica that then lead to a loss of a lot of ice."
Great post...And some scientists believe that a minimal shift in the oceanic currents could send the Earth back into a cold phase, regardless of global warming. Ice Ages are a incredible subject to study, and I have been fascinated by them since I was a kid..
G'afternoon, bloggers! I hope you're all doing well on this gorgeous Hump Day!

Now, what is this I hear about a possible ''tropical entity'' impacting Southern Florida by this upcoming weekend?

Anyone care to elaborate on this matter? I'd appreciate it.

Thanks, =)
Quoting Tribucanes:
thanks for fielding my question and for your prognosis.
Troll or not, you are interesting.
This is 240 hours out, but if it were to happen, we could move into a pattern that favors severe weather outbreaks..
Quoting hydrus:
This is 240 hours out, but if it were to happen, we could move into a pattern that favors severe weather outbreaks..

If the trough and high both move east, yes. With that forecast, the trough is too far west to help create shear and act as a focus for storm development.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


Wouldn't a pattern like that be favorable for land-falling storms here in the states? Or am I wrong, Hydrus?

The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007). To get more landfalling storms during the hurricane season, you need a break in the high pressure, and a trough over the midwest, or over the mountains (ideally, you would have a more zonal flow, with less amplification). On this map, the trough is too far west.
Quoting ClimateChange:


Despite all of this, James Lovelock is now acting like global warming won't be that big of a deal. I'm very disappointed in this. He was the first to really open my eyes to this issue, when he predicted it would cull the earth's population to 500 million by the end of the century. Now he claims it hasn't warmed in 12 years and that we will see no more than 1 or 2C of warming, and that would be harmless. I don't know what data he's looking at to cause such an abrupt about-face in his thinking. 2010 and 2005 are the warmest years on record. We've seen shrinking ice caps, unprecedented heat waves, droughts, and flooding in the years since his book was published. As recent as 2010, he still seemed on board for the doomsday vision. The only thing I can think of is senility (he's 92) or he's being bought and paid for by big oil. Either that or he never actually believed what he said in the past, but only said it to sell copies of his book and gain attention.


James Lovelock used to hold a very extreme position that was not backed up by the science and not endorsed by climate scientists in general. His original warming claims exceeded event the IPCC worst case scenario by a fair margin when it came to temperature rise, which by itself is a considerable stretch in regards to the response of CO2.

Recently, I think he came to the realization that the climate science community had it right and that his DOOM scenarios were a mistake. However, his other statements don't necessarily follow. For instance, there is no corroborating science that temperatures will only rise another 1-2C, and certainly no science stating that rise will have no impact on the globe.

So he's gone from one extreme to the other. Instead of claiming climate scientists are wrong and we are doomed, he is now saying that climate scientists are wrong and we will be peachy. At least he is consistent in thinking that climate scientists are wrong. :P

In any event, neither his previous claims of the end of the world nor his current claims of nothing bad will happen are backed up by any reviewed research I'm aware of. It's just his (rather flawed) opinion. I wouldn't attribute it to malice though.
Quoting jeffs713:

The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007). To get more landfalling storms during the hurricane season, you need a break in the high pressure, and a trough over the midwest, or over the mountains (ideally, you would have a more zonal flow, with less amplification). On this map, the trough is too far west.


HIGHLY DOUBTFUL as that ridge of high pressure is no where near as strong as the MONSTROSITY that was in place over the Southern Atlantic during the '07 hurricane season. Of which, yes, kept everything buried down in the Caribbean as you had mentioned. Such as Felix and Dean. But don't exaggerate, please.
The Euro has the NOA going negative..That in itself could make things interesting.
Quoting jeffs713:

The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007). To get more landfalling storms during the hurricane season, you need a break in the high pressure, and a trough over the midwest, or over the mountains (ideally, you would have a more zonal flow, with less amplification). On this map, the trough is too far west.
Hold on a minute guys. Please reread my post. I was not referring to tropical cyclones, I said " severe weather outbreaks ".
Quoting hydrus:
Hold on a minute guys. Please reread my post. I was not referring to tropical cyclones, I said " severe weather outbreaks ".

I know. I put in my $.02 on that too, in post# 85. I was answering Hurricanes2012 in post #86.

Quoting Hurricanes2012:


HIGHLY DOUBTFUL as that ridge of high pressure is no where near as strong as the MONSTROSITY that was in place over the Southern Atlantic during the '07 hurricane season. Of which, yes, kept everything buried down in the Caribbean as you had mentioned. Such as Felix and Dean. But don't exaggerate, please.

I wasn't speaking in regards to the relative strength of storms or the high... just the pattern. 2007 is the closest general pattern I could come up with, consisting of a high pressure over the SE, and a trough in the west. When you have that general pattern type, tropical cyclones have a harder time pushing north, due to the high blocking them. The exception would be the TX coast, but that depends on the relative strength of the high and the storm... which I didn't delve into.
Quoting ncstorm:


The CMC is on board







That low you are talking about is showing up on the NWS 5 day as a tropical wave...
Quoting LargoFl:
the north pole isnt what people should be worried about..its the South they really should be concerned with..3 miles thick in places and if IT goes..the oceans rise 60 meters..gotta love those scientific shows on the weekends..just really know how to make you feel good huh..well anyway by the time it does happen i'll be poof i guess


The Antarctic continental ice shelf won't be melting anytime soon. Due to it's unique environment and the fact that it is land locked, the impacts of warming are gradual and mainly relegated to the edges of the continent. That can accelerate ice loss but it will still take quite a long time.

The Arctic ice, on the other hand, is melting from both sides. Most of the world's population lives in the norther hemisphere, and when our arctic regulator vanishes it's going to bring some noticeable changes (some of which we are already seeing). Current projections have the arctic ice melting out this century (sooner rather than later it seems). Greenland and Antarctica won't be melting out completely for quite some time.

The Arctic is the big focus for now because it will affect the most people and will be happening in the very near future. Eventually Antarctica will become an issue, but not anytime in the near future.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
G'afternoon, bloggers! I hope you're all doing well on this gorgeous Hump Day!

Now, what is this I hear about a possible ''tropical entity'' impacting Southern Florida by this upcoming weekend?

Anyone care to elaborate on this matter? I'd appreciate it.

Thanks, =)


Look to HPC JFV


Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT SRN FL AND THE BAHAMAS/CUBA AS A STRONGER THAN AVERAGE SYSTEM BEGINS THE LATE MID SPRING WET SEASON IN THIS REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF DIGGING INTO THE ERN GLFMEX/WRB CARRIBEAN WITH MDT/STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY CONVERGENCE INTO THE BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES.



TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS

Excerpt:

THROUGH 72-84 HRS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH A LOW LEVEL TROUGH/ILL ORGANIZED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION PROVIDING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. NOTE THAT FOR THIS AREA THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MAXIMA OF NEARLY 100MM FOR
DAYS 04-05.
1 year ago today, the record breaking April 25-28 super outbreak would begin. Several tornadoes devastated parts of Arkansas on the 25th, including the town of Vilonia which was hit very hard by a massive EF2 tornado.
Quoting hydrus:
That low you are talking about is showing up on the NWS 5 day as a tropical wave...


Interesting! Looks like South Florida will get those much needed rains.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


HIGHLY DOUBTFUL as that ridge of high pressure is no where near as strong as the MONSTROSITY that was in place over the Southern Atlantic during the '07 hurricane season. Of which, yes, kept everything buried down in the Caribbean as you had mentioned. Such as Felix and Dean. But don't exaggerate, please.


That's no exaggeration there. We all know what you want.
Euro



Quoting ncstorm:
Euro





Hmmm.
Looks like some decent rains coming for SFL, which y'all desperately need. (now if we can just get the panhandle and big bend area those same rains...)
Hello everyone. Reporting from just north of the Sargasso sea near Bermuda. Sailing under tropical like skies, blue seas, calm, sunny days, absolutely beautiful. The navigator says this will last until we dock at the Azores on Saturday at which things get wet again and dismal. Interesting weather gathering fact, Celebrity partipipates as do do many cruise lines in extensive weather reporting and filed 29,000 plus actual weather observations from all over the globe last year to NOAA and other weather orgs to help with real time condition reporting. Also, their enhancements to GPS allows then to always calculate locations within 4 inches of actual location. I guess our car GPS's aren't as hot as we thought as they tell us within about 50 feet. Sigh.

Signing off - Sat coverage out here a little spotty so I pop in when it's up and operating.
Quoting ncstorm:
Euro





Do I spy.. mischief?
Quoting jeffs713:
Looks like some decent rains coming for SFL, which y'all desperately need. (now if we can just get the panhandle and big bend area those same rains...)


We need more rains in TX, this high pressure and sunny clear days isn't needed
For those wondering about steering patterns for 2012 the important thing to watch for is what the conditions are that steer the storms when there is a storm in the area. Timing is critical. A pattern that would steer a Cape Verde Hurricane directly into Florida for example could exist for two months, but if there is no Hurricane to be steered the pattern is meaningless. Charley slammed into SW Florida because an early season trough just happened to be in the right place as Charley turned north in the Gulf. History shows most Tropical Cyclones that enter the Gulf pass west of the southwest coast of Florida and vent their fury from the Florida panhandle to Mexico. In 2007 as jeff713 mentioned a few posts above we watched as two Cat 5 monsters traveled the whole length of the Caribbean but couldn't turn north because of the strong high pressure system to the north that happened to be in place at just the right time to protect Florida and the gulf coast. In 2004 and 2005 we watched as Charley, Dennis, Katrina, and Rita were able to get into the Gulf because they were not blocked. Regardless of how strong a Tropical Cyclone is, it always follows the path of least resistance. It's not "where" a Hurricane is, but "when".

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Do I spy.. mischief?
NAO negative and MJO in the region...hmm..
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Good day, KOG!

good day
well fla got nothin to worry about for as long as you and the shower curtain have been here there has not been a strike will the luck hold stay tuned to find out
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

goodday
well fla got nothin to worry about for as long as you and the shower curtain have been here there has not been a strike will the luck hold stay tuned to find out


lol
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Hello everyone. Reporting from just north of the Sargasso sea near Bermuda. Sailing under tropical like skies, blue seas, calm, sunny days, absolutely beautiful. The navigator says this will last until we dock at the Azores on Saturday at which things get wet again and dismal. Interesting weather gathering fact, Celebrity partipipates as do do many cruise lines in extensive weather reporting and filed 29,000 plus actual weather observations from all over the globe last year to NOAA and other weather orgs to help with real time condition reporting. Also, their enhancements to GPS allows then to always calculate locations within 4 inches of actual location. I guess our car GPS's aren't as hot as we thought as they tell us within about 50 feet. Sigh.

Signing off - Sat coverage out here a little spotty so I pop in when it's up and operating.
A safe and happy journey to you T.T.
Quoting RitaEvac:


We need more rains in TX, this high pressure and sunny clear days isn't needed

True. At least it isn't 100+ outside, though.
Quoting hydrus:
NAO negative and MJO in the region...hmm..
spotted that a couple of days ago watchin waiting
Quoting jeffs713:
Looks like some decent rains coming for SFL, which y'all desperately need. (now if we can just get the panhandle and big bend area those same rains...)


Yeah, parts of FL could be out of this drought over the coming months. Especially if the MJO continues to hangout in our region. Also this MJO could spell tropical DOOM for US down the road.


The GFS has dropped the development of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific and continues to show an empty Atlantic basin over the next 16 days--would we really expect otherwise?
Quoting jeffs713:

True. At least it isn't 100+ outside, though.


Yeah that ridge that has been parked out in the SW US all winter seems to wanna move east and is now over TX. Let's hope it doesn't stay like it did last year.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah, parts of FL could be out of this drought over the coming months. Especially if the MJO continues to hangout in our region. Also this MJO could spell tropical DOOM for US down the road.



I am in that isolated "persistence" spot in md. :(
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS has dropped the development of a tropical cyclone in the Eastern Pacific and continues to show an empty Atlantic basin over the next 16 days--would we really expect otherwise?


May's around the corner, my man.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah that ridge that has been parked out in the SW US all winter seems to wanna move east and is now over TX. Let's hope it doesn't stay like it did last year.


Again if you read my previous post above on steering currents if the bermuda high were to stay exactly were it is most storms would get shunted westward into CA. Our atmosphere is just to complex and coupled to be able to determine what absolute locations will be impacted this season. One must prepare regardless of what seasonal forecast may say.
Just because I find it interesting, areas in and surrounding the Springfield experienced a "Heat Burst". These are relatively rare evening/nighttime atmospheric events in which the temperature drastically increases and the dewpoint/humidity values significant decrease. Very gusty winds, sometimes in excess of 50 mph, also occur occasionally.

This heat burst occurred around 3:00 am CDT.

So, I know that a negative NAO in wintertime spells big trouble for us SoFLA gardeners, but if the NAO is going negative at this time of year, what does that indicate for the US?

(Thanks in advance!)
From the SPC for tomorrow..a lot of uncertanity

...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
ENSURE SFC PRESSURES RISE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WV/KY INTO TN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF SFC LOW. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY SEVERE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LACKING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRAILING BOUNDARY IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS
. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY...BUT IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT STORMS WILL
FORM IN GREATER CONCENTRATION THEN THESE PROBS WILL BE INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The Weather Channel 2012 Hurricane Forecast.


hurricane season y u no average?
Keeper! You'll never change; I love ya, man.
Funny thing, TWC didn't even mention where the main threats might be in their predictions. No mention of the record warmth in the Gulf.

Just that always be prepared and it only takes one.
Quoting hurricane23:


Again if you read my previous post above on steering currents if the bermuda high were to stay exactly were it is most storms would get shunted westward into CA. Our atmosphere is just to complex and coupled to be able to determine what absolute locations will be impacted this season. One must prepare regardless of what seasonal forecast may say.


El Nino years seem to have more troughs too associated with them. Heck the last front that came through pushed 40 degree weather into FL in late-April. That will probably cause storms to want to recurve away from land, and if timed right in the Caribbean - headed more northward.
127. Because it is the truth. Would you rather a map with a gigantic "high risk" area directly over your house, and its shower curtain?
Quoting jeffs713:
127. Because it is the truth. Would you rather a map with a gigantic "high risk" area directly over your house, and its shower curtain?

That is exactly what he would prefer actually.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


El Nino years seem to have more troughs too associated with them. Heck the last front that came through pushed 40 degree weather into FL in late-April. That will probably cause storms to want to recurve away from land, and if timed right in the Caribbean - headed more northward.


Yeah I disagree with Adrian. El-nino years tend to have a weaker Bermuda high and this could pose a problem for the US especially Gulf Coast areas from TX to FL. I remember August 2004 all to well to say C.A. will be the target. Infact I think people even said that on here during that year that C.A appeared to be the hot spot instead it turned out to be FL. So If someone says Central America could be in trouble then if I lived along the Gulf then I would be worried.
I would be worried all across the Gulf Coast for weak tropical systems. But in terms of hurricanes, Florida and Texas seem to be targets.
133. MTWX
Quoting LargoFl:
clipped this from"how stuff works" but lots of other sites say the same thing..............The main ice covered landmass is Antarctica at the South Pole, with about 90 percent of the world's ice (and 70 percent of its fresh water). Antarctica is covered with ice an average of 2,133 meters (7,000 feet) thick. If all of the Antarctic ice melted, sea levels around the world would rise about 61 meters (200 feet). But the average temperature in Antarctica is -37°C, so the ice there is in no danger of melting. In fact in most parts of the continent it never gets above freezing.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Warm ocean driving Antarctic ice loss

Excerpt:

"Previously, you would have thought that we needed a lot of warming in the atmosphere to get a substantial loss of ice from Antarctica - because it's such a cold place. But what we show is that that's not necessary; you don't need radical change.

"All you need are quite subtle changes - such as a change in the winds - and that can produce effects at the edges of Antarctica that then lead to a loss of a lot of ice."


Antartica is quite mountainous with most of the ice trapped in glaciers slowly sliding into the warmer oceans. The air temperatures aren't really a driving factor in Antartic ice depletion. Their is still massive amounts of ice loss on our southern continent due to calving glaciers and collapsing ice shelves.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would be worried all across the Gulf Coast for weak tropical systems. But in terms of hurricanes, Florida and Texas seem to be targets.


If we follow the analog of 2002 then you would be right. I remember a powerful hurricane LILI that year that was target TX & LA but luckly weakened before she came ashore.


Appears to be a circulation in the south Caribbean ,couple hundreds miles south of Jamaica 15N/78W
Quoting stormpetrol:


Appears to be a circulation in the south Caribbean ,couple hundreds miles south of Jamaica 15N/78W


You folks are in for some squally wx in a couple of days in the Cayman Islands.
137. MTWX
Here are some photos a buddy of mine took when he was stationed there.



There is a good read on Weatherbell by Joe D about sea level rise and the melting ice caps, check it out it shows the other side of what might be really happening.
Quoting MTWX:
Here are some photos a buddy of mine took when he was stationed there.




Cool photos, where was he stationed again?
Antarctic ice shelves melting from warm water, study shows

CBS News Link

I don't brake for trolls !
Good afternoon all
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I would be worried all across the Gulf Coast for weak tropical systems. But in terms of hurricanes, Florida and Texas seem to be targets.


What's your reasoning behind this? If I may ask.
XX/XX/XX
Quoting RevElvis:
Antarctic ice shelves melting from warm water, study shows

CBS News Link

I don't brake for trolls !

This is not we want to hear...Antartica was once thought to be stable, but it seems as if that's not the case anymore. Thanks for the link
"The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic."

Masters's saying there is a strong probability of having neutral conditions during the hurricane peak season. Does neutral means more or less hurricane activity over the Atlantic?

Quoting Hurricanes2012:


What's your reasoning behind this? If I may ask.

Those two states tend to be the primary target for strong systems in Neutral/weak El Niño years.

At least, from what I've went back and looked upon.
149. MTWX
Quoting Articuno:

Cool photos, where was he stationed again?

He was at McMurdo Station for a bit and also did some time at the South Pole. All in all he was there for a year in the 2010-2011 timeframe.
Nothing is stable in the world, never has, never will.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


Good afternoon, Nigel.

Good afternoon
Quoting tatoprweather:
"The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic."

Masters's saying there is a strong probability of having neutral conditions during the hurricane peak season. Does neutral means more or less hurricane activity over the Atlantic?


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



WOW

Thanks.
Quoting nigel20:

This is not we want to hear...Antartica was once thought to be stable, but it seems as if that's not the case anymore. Thanks for the link


faster and faster we go
Random thought here: Why does the NWS use "freeze warnings" and "hard freeze warnings"?

The descriptions for both are almost exactly the same:

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Couldn't they just stop using one of them?

And it's the same with "freeze watch" and "hard freeze watch"
Quoting tatoprweather:
"The majority of the El Niño computer models (48%) predict neutral conditions for this fall, during the August - September - October peak of hurricane season, though 35% of the models predict an El Niño will develop. El Niño conditions tend to decrease Atlantic hurricane activity, by increasing wind shear over the tropical Atlantic."

Masters's saying there is a strong probability of having neutral conditions during the hurricane peak season. Does neutral means more or less hurricane activity over the Atlantic?


Generally we have average to above hurrcane seasons during neutral years
anyone here read online "the Independant"......................here is the Headline....pretty scary too if you ask me.........................Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer
138 NativeSun: There is a good read on WeatherBELL by Joe D about sea level rise and the melting ice caps...

I can't find it. Could you provide a link to the article?
We really don't have any problems with reading contrarian views... Admittedly the majority of us will read them mostly to point out the errors in fact and in reasoning.
In other news, a professional meteorologist who had occasionally provided VERY good info to WUblog's comments section, Dr. Ryan Maue has joined the WeatherBELL Analytics staff.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Random thought here: Why does the NWS use "freeze warnings" and "hard freeze warnings"?

The descriptions for both are almost exactly the same:

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Couldn't they just stop using one of them?

And it's the same with "freeze watch" and "hard freeze watch"

Freeze = Temperatures from 28-32 °F.

Hard freeze = Temperatures below 28 °F.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If we follow the analog of 2002 then you would be right. I remember a powerful hurricane LILI that year that was target TX & LA but luckly weakened before she came ashore.


Ah yes, Lili. Evacuation number 2 for me. Andrew was my first and they like Gustav #4 went to my neighbors in Louisiana. We basically split the other two Rita #3 and Ike #5. Needless to say all of the fall babies in the family have spent their b-days on the road a time or two. Lol. Or in the case of Humberto just in the dark. :)
EX 91L is looking better can could make a comeback.

Link
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


everything will change in a blink of an eye
climate shift is and has been occuring for some time now since 2005 anyway and as we progress further along the change will become more pronounce things are happening faster than anyone ever expected


faster and faster we are going

I don't know that that's true. But the bad part is that I don't know that it's not true.

There's no doubt that there are rough times ahead for human civilization, though.
while surfing the web i came across a site that..well what do you think about this...COULD it happen, since this IS..2012.......................................... .."NASA has verified that there is now positive magnetism energy appearing in the south pole, which is normally supposed to be in the north pole only. The South pole is supposed to only have a negative magnetic charge. In the past 150 years, there has been a migration between the north and south poles and their respective magnetic charges of positive and negative magnetic reversal. Another thing that NASA has observed is that the sun literally reverses its poles every 11 years at the peak of each sunspot cycle. The solar pole shift will happen again in 2012 exactly. There is some concern about the extra solar activity that will be happening in the sun during this cycle, solar cycle 24, but there is some comfort in the fact that 2012 is just another normal time for the solar cycle to happen. It is natural...the article also went on to say OUR poles will reverse this year
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Those two states tend to be the primary target for strong systems in Neutral/weak El Niño years.

At least, from what I've went back and looked upon.


Thanks.
Lili's abrupt weakening is still a worthy case for in-depth meteorological study. So is Ethel in 1960 if her purported Category 5 intensity (unlikely considering the central pressure) is correct:

Quoting KoritheMan:
Lili's abrupt weakening is still a worthy case for in-depth meteorological study. So is Ethel in 1960 if her purported Category 5 intensity (unlikely considering the central pressure) is correct:


Recon actually did measure Category 5 hurricane winds at the time which is what makes the case even more suspicious...
Question time!

When I do my blogs this year, I'm considering drawing actual 5-day track and intensity forecasts for active storms, including written latitude and longitude coordinates spanning those five days. I might also consider writing six-hour intensity, position, and pressure estimates for individual storms when I write my TCRs this year.

Thoughts? If enough people show interest, I'll consider it.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Question time!

When I do my blogs this year, I'm considering drawing actual 5-day track forecasts for active storms, including written latitude and longitude coordinates spanning those five days. I might also consider writing six-hour intensity, position, and pressure estimates for individual storms when I write my TCRs this year.

Thoughts? If enough people show interest, I'll consider it.

Yes.

Just don't use paint. Use Powerpoint at the very least.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Random thought here: Why does the NWS use "freeze warnings" and "hard freeze warnings"?

The descriptions for both are almost exactly the same:

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Couldn't they just stop using one of them?

And it's the same with "freeze watch" and "hard freeze watch"


Certain crops may be able to tolerate a regular freeze, but may not be able to tolerate a hard freeze.
Rainy in Hispaniola
Quoting KoritheMan:
Question time!

When I do my blogs this year, I'm considering drawing actual 5-day track and intensity forecasts for active storms, including written latitude and longitude coordinates spanning those five days. I might also consider writing six-hour intensity, position, and pressure estimates for individual storms when I write my TCRs this year.

Thoughts? If enough people show interest, I'll consider it.


Sounds good. I'd like to read it. :)
Quoting LargoFl:
while surfing the web i came across a site that..well what do you think about this...COULD it happen, since this IS..2012.......................................... .."NASA has verified that there is now positive magnetism energy appearing in the south pole, which is normally supposed to be in the north pole only. The South pole is supposed to only have a negative magnetic charge. In the past 150 years, there has been a migration between the north and south poles and their respective magnetic charges of positive and negative magnetic reversal. Another thing that NASA has observed is that the sun literally reverses its poles every 11 years at the peak of each sunspot cycle. The solar pole shift will happen again in 2012 exactly. There is some concern about the extra solar activity that will be happening in the sun during this cycle, solar cycle 24, but there is some comfort in the fact that 2012 is just another normal time for the solar cycle to happen. It is natural...the article also went on to say OUR poles will reverse this year
all things have occured in the past and will occur in the future they are not going to stop just cause we are here
pole shift is just another example of things we have yet to witness so far anyway
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Freeze = Temperatures from 28-32 °F.

Hard freeze = Temperatures below 28 °F.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Certain crops may be able to tolerate a regular freeze, but may not be able to tolerate a hard freeze.

Thanks to both of you... I think they should specify that a little more on the warnings
The relationship between the ENSO cycles and hurricane formation is well studied and documented. What relationship if any is there between the solar/sunspot level of activity and hurricane frequency? It just seems that this a component of hurricane activity that should be given greater weight than what I see talked about on this blog. I'm all ears....
Can anyone tell me what happened to the NOGAPS model runs on the navy site? the link I had saved tells me the page has moved?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Question time!

When I do my blogs this year, I'm considering drawing actual 5-day track and intensity forecasts for active storms, including written latitude and longitude coordinates spanning those five days. I might also consider writing six-hour intensity, position, and pressure estimates for individual storms when I write my TCRs this year.

Thoughts? If enough people show interest, I'll consider it.


I personally do not know what you do for a living but if you actually have the "time" on you hands to go that in-depth, go for it........As long as it is based on science, and not guesswork, would be certainly interesting to see how you stack up against NHC and their dynamical model forecasts......... :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Link


Thanks
been kind of wet in greater antillias this yr
Quoting MrNatural:
The relationship between the ENSO cycles and hurricane formation is well studied and documented. What relationship if any is there between the solar/sunspot level of activity and hurricane frequency? It just seems that this a component of hurricane activity that should be given greater weight than what I see talked about on this blog. I'm all ears....


I haven't really studied it, but I've read some articles that point to decreased solar activity as generally producing more hurricanes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Technically this isn't correct. The criteria for those warnings are entirely arbitrary, expedient across specific locations. Same with heat advisories, etc.

For Heat advisories, excessive heat watches/warnings, wind chill advisories, wind chill watches/warnings, these are arbitrary.

A Freeze is a freeze. It's when crops and vegetation are at risk of cold temperatures, at or below 32 for a long period of time. 10 degree wind chills in North Dakota would not warrant a wind chill warning, where 30 degree wind chills in Miami would.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


I personally do not know what you do for a living but if you actually have the "time" on you hands to go that in-depth, go for it........As long as it is based on science, and not guesswork, would be certainly interesting to see how you stack up against NHC and their dynamical model forecasts......... :)


Not to boast, but have you even seen my forecasts? I do not advocate wishcasting. It's either science or GTFO.

And I work retail. About... 33 hours a week on average? I can do it!
Quoting EugeneTillman:

For Heat advisories, excessive heat watches/warnings, wind chill advisories, wind chill watches/warnings, these are arbitrary.

A Freeze is a freeze. It's when crops and vegetation are at risk of cold temperatures, at or below 32 for a long period of time. 10 degree wind chills in North Dakota would not warrant a wind chill warning, where 30 degree wind chills in Miami would.


I stand corrected. Though I guess it should have been obvious.
Quoting islander101010:
been kind of wet in greater antillias this yr


In Puerto Rico,is almost 10 inches above normal the rainfall so far in 2012.

Link
NOGAPS



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL AND SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252136Z - 252300Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY.

THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT STILL
STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...WHEN MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S F AND DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 60 F...CIN IS NEARLY GONE. INDEED...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER CNTRL IL...NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WHERE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS TO
HAVE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT NW ORIENTED DEEP SHEAR...THIS WILL
FAVOR LONG LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS. STORM
MODE COULD REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR IF OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS KEPT
LOW...BUT SOME SWWD PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE...AND MERGING OUTFLOWS
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND THREAT.

THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO TORNADOES WILL BE THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN RELATION TO RELATIVELY WARM/DRY AIR FROM 850-700 MB AND
MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. A ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE AREA FROM SRN IL INTO SWRN
IND...NEAR THE BOUNDARY BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO
POTENTIAL.

..JEWELL.. 04/25/2012


ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON 40428869 40028747 39048605 37858600 37048679 36768786
36858879 37378952 38039024 38369061 38999082 39789033
40428869
Quoting islander101010:
been kind of wet in greater antillias this yr

Yes it has and we still have a long rainy season to deal with
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


Is that a TS on the NGP? But it is the NGP, so, phew.

No, just a weak area of low pressure that should bring some rainfall to Florida.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not to boast, but have you even seen my forecasts? I do not advocate wishcasting. It's either science or GTFO.

And I work retail. About... 33 hours a week on average? I can do it!


Lol.............Your honesty is greatly appreciated... :)
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Kory, home from work early today, man?


Off actually. I work 9 to 6 tomorrow, which isn't too bad (I'm just not used to going to sleep early, since I usually have to close).
OT: "An active geological fault lies directly beneath one of two reactors at a nuclear power plant in western Japan, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said."

UPI Story
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
OT: "An active geological fault lies directly beneath one of two reactors at a nuclear power plant in western Japan, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency said."

UPI Story
there have been several newspaper stories that this japan thing is not over yet
Quoting LargoFl:
there have been several newspaper stories that this japan thing is not over yet


Few disasters of that magnitude are. You just don't usually hear about it because we are a forgetful, prioritizing species.
That awkward moment when you try and sneeze but can't. Luckily I'm sitting in my room alone, so no one saw the weird faces I was making. Whew!
is this the same number of storms this summer that YOU predicted?..Link
Quoting KoritheMan:
That awkward moment when you try and sneeze but can't. Luckily I'm sitting in my room alone, so no one saw the weird faces I was making. Whew!

Glad you decided to share that little piece of information with us...
Quoting aspectre:
138 NativeSun: There is a good read on WeatherBELL by Joe D about sea level rise and the melting ice caps...

I can't find it. Could you provide a link to the article?
We really don't have any problems with reading contrarian views... Admittedly the majority of us will read them mostly to point out the errors in fact and in reasoning.
In other news, a professional meteorologist who had occasionally provided VERY good info to WUblog's comments section, Dr. Ryan Maue has joined the WeatherBELL Analytics staff.
Maue is pretty good with weather--as is Bastardi--but, like Bastardi, he, too, has a very strong streak of ideologically-based climate science denial running all through him. Check out his infrequently-updated political blog some time to see what I mean...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Glad you decided to share that little piece of information with us...


Happy to oblige. ;)
Oh look yet another storm instantly vanishes before it gets to me.  

I'd say they will hold back on the watches.  Not enough energy to break the CAP that is in place.

93 here today and humid, just west of Austin 100 to 102 today, too early in the year for it to be so hot.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a weak area of low pressure that should bring some rainfall to Florida.


Appreciate that clarification, Tropical.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
93 here today and humid, just west of Austin 100 to 102 today, too early in the year for it to be so hot.

wow! Steaming down there
I'm hoping the East Pacific throws Aletta at us soon. This dearth of tropical cyclone activity (even worldwide) is killing me. :/
30 OrchidGrower: Re: #17, remember there was the finding a couple years back ---- that the much-trumpeted stats showing that temps in the Tropics were NOT warming year-after-year --- turned out to be because the satellites originally measuring daytime maximums in the Tropics, had slowed their orbital speed and begun measuring/reporting nighttime temps instead...

Corrections did have to be made... but it wasn't a matter of slowing or timing.
The lower the orbit, the faster a satellite has to travel so that its centifugal force can counterbalance the downward gravitational force. The satellites' orbits were speeding up due to orbital decay caused by collisions with the little amount of "air" up there.
(Hadda use scare quotes cuz the molecules and atoms and ions are so scarce in the extremely-near-vacuum of the thermosphere.)
Due to those collisions, the cameras have to be facing slightly backwards to minimize lens erosion and to prevent lens-heating from being an overly significant part of the captured heat-image.

Because the cameras are facing slightly backward, an increase in orbital speed causes a RedShift in the photons catching up with the camera from behind. ie Those photons appear to be coming from a cooler source than they actually are.
To correct for that illusion, the effect of DopplerShifting-due-to-orbital-decay had to be included in the calculations.
Evening Everybody!
So some chappy called Donald Trump from the USA is saying that by installing wind turbines in Scotland it will ruin the tourist industry, of which he says in the interview, he is an expert.
He doesn't say as far as I can see, that he is an expert in power generation, global warming, or alternative energy suppliers but he did say wind turbines are harmful to tourism! Here's the link:-

http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/trump-wind-fa rms-destroying-tourism/2imd5p34

So, is it the sight of them, the noise of them, the existence of them, or just the fact that they produce non oil/nuclear based energy, that is the problem for tourists?
Sometimes news makes you THINK!
This image shows how lucky Jamaica was with Dean
Guess what guys? I'm eating pizza that I put in the oven for 11 minutes.

Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm hoping the East Pacific throws Aletta at us soon. This dearth of tropical cyclone activity (even worldwide) is killing me. :/

It's called the off-season. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'm hoping the East Pacific throws Aletta at us soon. This dearth of tropical cyclone activity (even worldwide) is killing me. :/


Screw that! The ATL needs to have its first storm already, man.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Evening Everybody!
So some chappy called Donald Trump from the USA is saying that by installing wind turbines in Scotland it will ruin the tourist industry, of which he says in the interview, he is an expert.
He doesn't say as far as I can see, that he is an expert in power generation, global warming, or alternative energy suppliers but he did say wind turbines are harmful to tourism! Here's the link:-

http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/trump-wind-fa rms-destroying-tourism/2imd5p34

So, is it the sight of them, the noise of them, the existence of them, or just the fact that they produce non oil/nuclear based energy, that is the problem for tourists?
Sometimes news makes you THINK!
ahh here is why.......................Donald Trump on Wednesday swept into Scotland’s parliament to demand the country end plans for an offshore wind farm he fears will spoil the view at his exclusive new $750-million-pound ($1.2-billion) golf resort.
Quoting LargoFl:
ahh here is why.......................Donald Trump on Wednesday swept into Scotland’s parliament to demand the country end plans for an offshore wind farm he fears will spoil the view at his exclusive new $750-million-pound ($1.2-billion) golf resort.
we have an old saying here in the states..."money talks,bullcrap walks"..want to bet he wins his case?
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


Screw that! The ATL needs to have its first storm already, man.
Agree it already try two times with Invest 90L and 91L Maybe 92L will the given :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Random thought here: Why does the NWS use "freeze warnings" and "hard freeze warnings"?

The descriptions for both are almost exactly the same:

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE IMMINENT OR
LIKELY TO OCCUR. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND OTHER
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

Couldn't they just stop using one of them?

And it's the same with "freeze watch" and "hard freeze watch"

I'll guess that it depends on how sensitive the crops are to cold. Some crops might survive a freeze but not a hard freeze. Did a quick search on the definition of a hard freeze and it varies a bit. Wikipedia puts a hard freeze at 28F. Also saw this post listing 26F for one specific location (Mobile, Ala.).

Edit: I think of a freeze as being below 32F. If the temps would not damage anything because everything was frozen weeks ago, then there'd be no warning. Thank God that never happens where I'm at.
Did You..know this?..................July is the month where the tradewinds south of the northward-moving subtropical ridge expand northwestward into Florida. Dust from the Sahara moving around the southern periphery of the ridge moves into the state, suppressing rainfall and changing the sky from a blue to a white appearance and leads to an increase in red sunsets. Its presence negatively impacts air quality across the Southeastern United States during the summer, by adding to the count of airborne particulates.[2] Over 50% of the African dust that reaches the United States affects Florida.[6] Since 1970, dust outbreaks have worsened due to periods of drought in Africa. There is a large variability in the dust transport to the Caribbean and Florida from year to year.[7] Dust events have been linked to a decline in the health of coral reefs across the Caribbean and Florida, primarily since the 1970s.[8]
Quoting LargoFl:
we have an old saying here in the states..."money talks,bullcrap walks"..want to bet he wins his case?

Bob Dylan! One of your lot from the States, said,
" Money doesn't talk, it Swears."
Radar showing that we only had a glancing blow with Dean
Quoting PlazaRed:
Evening Everybody!
So some chappy called Donald Trump from the USA is saying that by installing wind turbines in Scotland it will ruin the tourist industry, of which he says in the interview, he is an expert.
He doesn't say as far as I can see, that he is an expert in power generation, global warming, or alternative energy suppliers but he did say wind turbines are harmful to tourism! Here's the link:-

http://video.uk.msn.com/watch/video/trump-wind-fa rms-destroying-tourism/2imd5p34

So, is it the sight of them, the noise of them, the existence of them, or just the fact that they produce non oil/nuclear based energy, that is the problem for tourists?
Sometimes news makes you THINK!


He says he's an expert on tourism. Of course he is pissed off. He spent a bunch of money to built a golf resort there. He's also an expert on bad hair.
Tough luck Donald, my vote is for the wind farms.

So, how ya doing Red....
Quoting PedleyCA:


He says he's an expert on tourism. Of course he is pissed off. He spent a bunch of money to built a golf resort there. He's also an expert on bad hair.
Tough luck Donald, my vote is for the wind farms.

So, how ya doing Red....

It seems as if no one likes Donald Trump...whats up pedley?
Quoting nigel20:
Radar showing that we only had a glancing blow with Dean


And look at this impressive loop.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And look at this impressive loop.


Yeah, quite impressive....just goes to show how lucky we were
Quoting PedleyCA:


He says he's an expert on tourism. Of course he is pissed off. He spent a bunch of money to built a golf resort there. He's also an expert on bad hair.
Tough luck Donald, my vote is for the wind farms.

So, how ya doing Red....

I personally would say that this Trump chap hasn't got a hope in hell of convincing anybody north of Hadrian's wall that he knows what hes talking about!
After all he isn't one of them to start with and he hasn't got a an acceptable accent, added to that, even though in the video he appears to have a slightly ginger tinge to his hair, he isn't apparently 'kilted up,' I would give him less than a 1 % chance of developing into something significant given the amount of cash shear that the natives will be experiencing during the next few months, plus they wont like him anyway as he is a foreigner exploiting them.
I'm OK in Southern Spain where it is warm and pleasant, with a favorable breeze. We are all looking forward to the forthcoming drought and ecological disasters with the usual gusto.
The UK ( cold damp island,) is experiencing severe thunderstorms, with gales and torrential rains, so much for their Spring.
Quoting nigel20:

It seems as if no one likes Donald Trump...whats up pedley?


He's a Rich Pompous A$$.

Just sitting here waiting for the rain to commence. Supposed to be a 90% chance of it. I got 86F/21% humidity and no rain yet. This might be one of
our last rain chances of the year.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
''Gotta catch them all, Pokemon; I know it's my destiny''

^_^.




hi JFV welcome back you this dont get it dont you


if some one bannds you that dos not mean come back with other name any ways reported
Quoting PedleyCA:


He's a Rich Pompous A$$.

Just sitting here waiting for the rain to commence. Supposed to be a 90% chance of it. I got 86F/21% humidity and no rain yet. This might be one of
our last rain chances of the year.

hopefully you get some rain
Quoting nigel20:

wow! Steaming down there
Quoting nigel20:

wow! Steaming down there
Several West Texas Locations today hit 108 degrees, All time high temps for April.
Quoting nigel20:
Radar showing that we only had a glancing blow with Dean


With the exception of Wilma, Dean and Felix where the most impressive hurricanes I have ever witnessed. Proof that just because it doesn't hit the USA, that doesn't mean it's effects aren't widespread and devastating.
Quoting nigel20:

hopefully you get some rain


We get missed to the North alot. Storms usually come out of the NW or West. This one is being fed by Tropical moisture and it coming out of the South. Doesn't look like much. Time will tell.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:


An absolutely tremendous picture of Dean! God willing, let's hope we get to see something like that heading towards the conus later on this summer. Cause we're very much overdue for one.



you may want too some some in like that but other dont
Quoting nigel20:

Yeah, quite impressive....just goes to show how lucky we were


Nigel,Puerto Rico was lucky even as Georges made landfall as a high end cat 2 because it could have been a cat 3 or higher and the damage would have been more extensive. As we know,Georges was a high end cat 4 just east of Guadeloupe,but weakened to cat 2 just before it crossed the Leewards.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Wilma, Dean and Felix where the most impressive hurricanes I have ever witnessed. Proof that just because it doesn't hit the USA, that doesn't mean it's effects aren't widespread and devastating.

*cough*





Does anybody have a link to SAB/TAFB? I lost it. :\
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Nigel,Puerto Rico was lucky even as Georges made landfall as a high end cat 2 because it could have been a cat 3 or higher and the damage would have been more extensive. As we know,Georges was a high end cat 4 just east of Guadeloupe,but weakened to cat 2 just before it crossed the Leewards.


Yeah...you guys were quite lucky, as even as a cat 2 the damage was quite extensive in Puerto Rico
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Wilma, Dean and Felix where the most impressive hurricanes I have ever witnessed. Proof that just because it doesn't hit the USA, that doesn't mean it's effects aren't widespread and devastating.

Agreed
I wish some nice surf comes to the Bahamas soon!



Those were the days :/ and yes, that is me xD
Only good thing about Trump is his hair won't move in a Cat. 5, what a crony! 1.2 billion for a golf course, wonder how many wind turbines he could have built? In fact, golf courses in America alone make up the size of Rhode Island. Should plant trees on all of them, and wind turbines where applicable. Have no problem with golf, but the need for drastic change is now; Donald............your fired.
sweet wave looks like a fun one to body surf
Did anyone know that hurricane charley hit florida on friday the 13th?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, just a weak area of low pressure that should bring some rainfall to Florida.



Just Thunderstorms and Rain please, no severe weather or wind.

This will be in the vicinity on Saturday?

Study: Antarctic ice melting from warm water below



WASHINGTON (AP) — Antarctica's massive ice shelves are shrinking because they are being eaten away from below by warm water, a new study finds. That suggests that future sea levels could rise faster than many scientists have been predicting.

The western chunk of Antarctica is losing 23 feet of its floating ice sheet each year. Until now, scientists weren't exactly sure how it was happening and whether or how man-made global warming might be a factor. The answer, according to a study published Wednesday in the journal Nature, is that climate change plays an indirect role — but one that has larger repercussions than if Antarctic ice were merely melting from warmer air.

Hamish Pritchard, a glaciologist at the British Antarctic Survey, said research using an ice-gazing NASA satellite showed that warmer air alone couldn't explain what was happening to Antarctica. A more detailed examination found a chain of events that explained the shrinking ice shelves.

Twenty ice shelves showed signs that they were melting from warm water below. Changes in wind currents pushed that relatively warmer water closer to and beneath the floating ice shelves. The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview.

As the floating ice shelves melt and thin, that in turn triggers snow and ice on land glaciers to slide down to the floating shelves and eventually into the sea, causing sea level rise, Pritchard said. Thicker floating ice shelves usually keep much of the land snow and ice from shedding to sea, but that's not happening now.

That whole process causes larger and faster sea level rise than simply warmer air melting snow on land-locked glaciers, Pritchard said.

"It means the ice sheets are highly sensitive to relatively subtle changes in climate through the effects of the wind," he said.

What's happening in Antarctica "may have already triggered a period of unstable glacier retreat," the study concludes. If the entire Western Antarctic Ice Sheet were to melt — something that would take many decades if not centuries — scientists have estimated it would lift global sea levels by about 16 feet.

NASA chief scientist Waleed Abdalati, an expert in Earth's ice systems who wasn't involved in the research, said Pritchard's study "makes an important advance" and provides key information about how Antarctica will contribute to global sea level rise.

Another outside expert, Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, said the paper will change the way scientists think about melt in Antarctica. Seeing more warm water encircling the continent, he worries that with "a further push from the wind" newer areas could start shrinking.
Quoting Thrawst:
I wish some nice surf comes to the Bahamas soon!



Those were the days :/ and yes, that is me xD


I don't know what happened to the waves over the FL east coast. They used to be humongous in the 90's but now they barely make a ripple!!! I've even heard of the Daytona Beach Rogue Wave!
Quoting BrickellBreeze:



Just Thunderstorms and Rain please, no severe weather or wind.

This will be in the vicinity on Saturday?


More like Sunday/Monday.
Quoting Tribucanes:
Only good thing about Trump is his hair won't move in a Cat. 5, what a crony! 1.2 billion for a golf course, wonder how many wind turbines he could have built? In fact, golf courses in America alone make up the size of Rhode Island. Should plant trees on all of them, and wind turbines where applicable. Have no problem with golf, but the need for drastic change is now; Donald............your fired.

Some people just have to get reality into perspective:-
This Trump Chappy has modified an almost insignificantly small part of the planet which spends a lot of its time as borderline tundra, in order that a few selected rich can hit small balls about with oddly shaped clubs!
Now from an extraterrestrials point of view, these ball knockers should be grateful that the general background populace have had the foresight to put up windmills in order that the future generations of ball knockers will not suffocate from heat and CO2 before they expire from alcholic poisoning after their pointless trudge to hole 19 as they call it.
With a bit of clever marketing the view of windmills could bring in 'green' golfers, who appreciate that humanity might have a "wind blown future?"
214 LargoFl: Donald Trump on Wednesday swept into Scotland%u2019s parliament to demand the country end plans for an offshore wind farm he fears will spoil the view at his exclusive new $750-million-pound ($1.2-billion) golf resort.

The same golf course that nobody* in the area wants because it'll spoil the scenery... and shut down longheld public rights-of-way for walkers, hikers, riders, bicyclists, and tourists.

* Except for potential members (ie social-climbers), building contractors, and employees.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


With the exception of Wilma, Dean and Felix where the most impressive hurricanes I have ever witnessed. Proof that just because it doesn't hit the USA, that doesn't mean it's effects aren't widespread and devastating.


Those were some impressive ones, but I always remember Gilbert. I remember seeing on the WC that it was so strong at one point, it was pulling air from below the equator; something which they had never seen. Can anyone find that report?




And Mitch took so many lives. Terrible storm.

Hurricane Igor:
20100914 | 2345 | ATL | 7.0 (DT) | 7.0 (FT) | 7.0 (CI) | 18.9 | 53.4 | 921 | 140 | 11L | IGOR | 1 | 10 | KL
=========
On September 14 at 11:45 pm when this info was recorded, Igor was a Category 5 with 160 mph and a pressure of 921 mbars.
April 25, SST Anomaly
Quoting Grothar:


Those were some impressive ones, but I always remember Gilbert. I remember seeing on the WC that it was so strong at one point, it was pulling air from below the equator; something which they had never seen. Can anyone find that report?




And Mitch took so many lives. Terrible storm.


Gilbert was massive it was over 500 miles across, it is also Jamaica's costliest hurricane...Mitch was impressive and deadly, with over 15000 deaths
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

*cough*





Does anybody have a link to SAB/TAFB? I lost it. :\


Dean at landfall far exceeded either of them, imo.
Quoting nigel20:
Radar showing that we only had a glancing blow with Dean


I thought Hurricane Dean's north core pounded Jamaica pretty harsh (especially on Jamaica's south coast). How was your experience?

You know its off season by the way when Donald Trump takes center stage here...
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!
Quoting nigel20:
April 25, SST Anomaly


Here is tonight's update of the 30 day SOI.

86 jeffs713 The pattern on the charts Hydrus posted would actually push storms further south, keeping them from landfall (like Dean and Felix in 2007).

Make that "...from landfall in the contiguous US..."
Both Dean and Felix made landfalls elsewhere as Cat5s.
Just deviating back to the blog heading; as I do from time to time, I sort of noticed that Greenland is about to become an ice free island if the first year ice all melts this season.
I think that this might signal the beginning of the end of summer ice in the Arctic as we know it, ( did Spok say that?)
If we get a season as similar to the last 2 with a lot of storms heading off up in the general direction of Greenland, then that warmed air may just tip the scales in favour of Greenland being ice free on the majority of its shorelines.
I would not personally know if this would be the first time in recent recorded history that this has occurred but the surface currents will then be free to circulate and erode more northerly regions of surface ice.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I thought Hurricane Dean's north core pounded Jamaica pretty harsh (especially on Jamaica's south coast). How was your experience?

You know its off season by the way when Donald Trump takes center stage here...

The south central end of the island experienced the worst conditions, but that part of Jamaica is not highly populated....there some strong wind gust in the interior Jamaica due to the higher elevation, we also had some coastal surge on the south....luckily both Ivan and Dean wobble to the west just before impact
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!

Somewhere in the back of the mind! you also have to think, that by posting some things, there might be a sinister knock on the door!
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone here read online "the Independant"......................here is the Headline....pretty scary too if you ask me.........................Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer


It's certainly a possibility. Given how thin the ice is all it would take is the right weather pattern and it would make the pole ice free. It's been relatively close a couple of times over the past few years.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is tonight's update of the 30 day SOI.


The SOI is hovering just under 7.0
87 Xyrus2000: James Lovelock used to hold a very extreme position that was not backed up by the science and not endorsed by climate scientists in general.

Make that "...at all." eg Any back-of-the-envelope calculation would show that even having the Earth's total insolation -- ie the total amount of sunlight falling on Earth -- focused exclusively on Antarctica would not cause its icecap to melt as rapidly as he was saying.
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Grothar, compatriota, que bola, mi viejo?

Manolo, como anda todo por alla riba en Broward County?


que bola, acere? No lo creo!
LOL...found some old hurricane season videos from the 1980s on youtube.

Some of the meteorologists in these videos are nuts. Particulary the first meterologist in this video covering Tropical Storm Bob 1985...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZturdeRpUg
Quoting Tribucanes:
Good one Plaza lol somewhere Donald is reading your post thinking hey.....I think I could market that!


Either that, or he wants to fire us all.
Quoting LargoFl:
while surfing the web i came across a site that..well what do you think about this...COULD it happen, since this IS..2012.......................................... .."NASA has verified that there is now positive magnetism energy appearing in the south pole, which is normally supposed to be in the north pole only. The South pole is supposed to only have a negative magnetic charge. In the past 150 years, there has been a migration between the north and south poles and their respective magnetic charges of positive and negative magnetic reversal. Another thing that NASA has observed is that the sun literally reverses its poles every 11 years at the peak of each sunspot cycle. The solar pole shift will happen again in 2012 exactly. There is some concern about the extra solar activity that will be happening in the sun during this cycle, solar cycle 24, but there is some comfort in the fact that 2012 is just another normal time for the solar cycle to happen. It is natural...the article also went on to say OUR poles will reverse this year


Post links please.

Just based on your post, I would say at least some of the info is incorrect. The sun doesn't really have any fixed poles. It has many poles and they move about quite frequently.

The poles on Earth are always moving as well. They don't change nearly as quickly as the sun, but they poles don't really stay fixed.

Pole reversals on Earth do happen but the take a long time to occur. They don't happen in the span of a year.

Also, even during a pole reversal sequence the Earth still has plenty of magnetic field. It's weakened to be sure, but it is still there, and it is more than enough to keep the planet adequately shielded. And even if it went away entirely the Earth's relatively thick atmosphere would still provide protection.
Quoting Ameister12:
Hurricane Igor:
20100914 | 2345 | ATL | 7.0 (DT) | 7.0 (FT) | 7.0 (CI) | 18.9 | 53.4 | 921 | 140 | 11L | IGOR | 1 | 10 | KL
=========
On September 14 at 11:45 pm when this info was recorded, Igor was a Category 5 with 160 mph and a pressure of 921 mbars.
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.
Quoting Grothar:


que bola, acere? No lo creo!

No es mejor:-
Lo soy que soy?
Estoy solamente aqui, para ti , en este momento?
que bola, es un juego de ninos!
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??

Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.

Igor was large as well...what's up W115?
Quoting PlazaRed:

No es mejor:-
Lo soy que soy?
Estoy solamente aqui, para ti , en este momento?
que bloa, es un juego de ninos!



Hay una canción con ese nombre.

How you doing? Are you back in the chilly British Isles or in sunny Spain?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Dean at landfall far exceeded either of them, imo.

We were talking about how impressive the hurricanes were, not the strength at which they made landfall. I'd say a storm going from a post-tropical cyclone to a Category 4 in two days is pretty impressive, is it not?
Quoting washingtonian115:
I knew Igor was always a 5..but he looked like a 10.


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/TCR-AL112010_Igor.pdf

The National Hurricane Center post-storm report says it was officially at 135 knots (155 mph) and 924 mb at peak intensity...which made it at the very top of Cat 4. But with it knocking on the doorstep of cat 5...I can see why some believe it was while others don't...
Lol, the spin is tiring. Next year it will be a cool summer but labeled the warmest since the groundhog saw his shadow or some such such BS.
Quoting Grothar:
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??


Nothing beats the marker


Gilbert coverage.
161 StormTracker2K: EX 91L is looking better can could make a comeback.

Last I saw of 91L, it was travelling northwestward from Bermuda. I don't see how it could have gotten to either east of the Bahamas or east of the Caribbean...
...which are the only two systems that I see on your link that appear to be somewhat circular.
Quoting nigel20:

Igor was large as well...what's up W115?
Hey Nigel.Yeah Igor was big.I think it was one of the biggest storms of the
Atlantic.
And if that was the case, would they really knock? Lets remember what free speech is. Everyone is o.k with what is mainstream speech, free speech in America is about allowing unpopular speech. I'm just a modern day Paul Revere........the NWO is coming, the NWO is coming, hope people are listening.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We were talking about how impressive the hurricanes were, not the strength at which they made landfall. I'd say a storm going from a post-tropical cyclone to a Category 4 in two days is pretty impressive, is it not?


Like Felix, for example. He became a Category 5 in two days.

Rina became a major hurricane in 24 hours too.
"Folks, it doesn't get any bigger than this...this is HUGE...and if it comes here, you'll remember it."

Well, I guess that statement said by Jeff Morrow came out true.

Quoting Grothar:



Hay una cancin con ese nombre.

How you doing? Are you back in the chilly British Isles or in sunny Spain?

Buenas Noches Caballero.
Estoy aqui en Espana y el tiempo is moy bueno.
La isla de frio u viento, con mucho humidad no es para mi y toda mis obras estan terminado.
Como la cosa's ahora? Donde andas?
Tenemoms una peste aqui? o No?

I have been back in Spain now for 2 months and there is a drought here of biblical proportions. The sun shines most of the time but they are having 90 MPH winds on the north coast at the moment with torrential rains.
A large deep low pressure is affecting the British Isles with powerful thunder storms and gales, it accompanies a return to long term financial recession.
Sort of Depression/Recession etc, rhymes
Que Sera, Srea?
Quoting owenowen:
Lol, the spin is tiring. Next year it will be a cool summer but labeled the warmest since the groundhog saw his shadow or some such such BS.


Groundhog's day & other forms of "conventional wisdom" don't apply when the jet stream is loopy like it has been this year...
you have to say that the most "siked" out hurricane was Floyd..first Florida East Coast had to evacuate..sike! Then GA East coast had to evacuate..sike! then SC east coast had to evacuate...sike! and then it finally made up its mind and hit NC..priceless
Quoting Hurricanes2012:
Grotha, do you believe that we'll be hit by anything down here this summer?

Oh great Wise one!



poof
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey Nigel.Yeah Igor was big.I think it was one of the biggest storms of the
Atlantic.

Yes it was
Quoting ncstorm:
you have to say that the most "siked" out hurricane was Floyd..first Florida East Coast had to evacuate..sike! Then GA East coast had to evacuate..sike! then SC east coast had to evacuate...sike! and then it finally made up its mind and hit NC..priceless

My dad has pictures of where they were on a boat and the water was up past the stop sign..

That's a lot of water.
Quoting Grothar:
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??



ROFL...LOL...I found that video hugely entertaining...

The antics they used to report weather in the 1960s are better than today's (I liked Wilbur the bird and Clammity Clam). Apparently they had to scribble the weather map from memory (unlike today's meteorlogists on TV where the maps are auto-generated on a silver platter).
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

My dad has pictures of where they were on a boat and the water was up past the stop sign..

That's a lot of water.


Dude....Floyd was a Hurricane God, if you will! sadly for me, I did not live in Florida back in 1999.
" However, ice in the Arctic is increasingly young, thin ice, which will make it easy for this year's ice to melt away to near-record low levels this summer, if warmer than average weather occurs in the Arctic."

Wishful thinking. :)
Quoting aspectre:
161 StormTracker2K: EX 91L is looking better can could make a comeback.

Last I saw of 91L, it was travelling northwestward from Bermuda. I don't see how it could have gotten to either east of the Bahamas or east of the Caribbean...
...which are the only two systems that I see on your link that appear to be somewhat circular.


Remnant surface trough of 91L was removed from 1800Z TAFB on Sunday April 22. The dissipating remnant trough was tracking eastward at the time while steered by the south side of its parent upper low. 91L is long gone in other words...

While this was happening...the parent upper low produced yet another extratropical cyclone just to the north of dissipating 91L (which is what you remarked as the thing traveling northward from Bermuda's vicinity). That second extratropical cyclone could have easily been confused with 91L but was not 91L. What's left of that 2nd extratropical cyclone's cold front is a cloud-free surface trough in the central Atlantic as of the current TAFB analyses.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

My dad has pictures of where they were on a boat and the water was up past the stop sign..

That's a lot of water.


It was so much water that roads and highways caved in..it was predicted to come in at a cat 4 but weakened right before landfall to a 2..we were going to ride it out..looking back, I can say I was foolish to do so..
Concerning Antarctic ice - post# 248

"The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview."

Strange that he left out the important influence of world-wide cow farting. :)
The 18Z GFS is showing a very potent system 48 hours out, or on Friday (April 27). Depending on cap erosion, we could be looking at isolated rain showers or isolated supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.
Quoting ncstorm:


It was so much water that roads and highways caved in..it was predicted to come in at a cat 4 but weakened right before landfall to a 2..we were going to ride it out..looking back, I can say I was foolish to do so..

Yes you were, but hind sight is 20/20 vision
LargoFl anyone here read online "the Independant"...here is the Headline..pretty scary too if you ask me
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer


They're talking of the NorthPole*itself (and not the ArcticOcean as whole), so that wouldn't be a brand spanking new phenomenum.
Within recent years, an (or several) adventure-tourism "Expedition(s) to the NorthPole" failed because the ice had melted there and/or in an ocean area totally surrounding the NorthPole.
But before those recent "expedition"(s), the NorthPole had been solidly embedded in traversable sea-ice as far as back as anybody had checked.

* edited because I found a link to the story.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is showing a very potent system for 48 hours from now, or Thursday (April 27). Depending on cap erosion, we could be looking at isolated rain showers or isolated supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is showing a very potent system for 48 hours from now, or Thursday (April 27). Depending on cap erosion, we could be looking at isolated rain showers or isolated supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.

Today is Thursday 26th of April, (or will be shortly depending on where you are?)
Can you please clarify how the potent system will be about 48 hours from now on the 26th of April when its allready here?
Note:- You may have allready modified your comment by the time I posted this, if so apologies.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Today is Thursday 26th of April, (or will be shortly depending on where you are?)
Can you please clarify how the potent system will be about 48 hours from now on the 26th of April when its allready here?

I meant in Central Daylight Time, and 48 hours out on the model run.

Should have clarified.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is showing a very potent system for 48 hours from now, or Thursday (April 27). Depending on cap erosion, we could be looking at isolated rain showers or isolated supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.

April 27 is a Friday :)
Gilbert was wild. It made final landfall at La Pesca, Tamaulipas Mex. (Around 24 N) Mammatus clouds completely covered the skies in San Antonio 8 hours before it landfall - about 400 miles away. The next day it spawned a bunch of tornadoes in South Texas.
Quoting Grothar:
Who said we didn't have great technology years ago??



Ah the good old days, black and white TV. What would a modern Met do if they handed them that situation. Run screaming off the set. Too funny.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

April 27 is a Friday :)

Wait...today is Wednesday?

0.o

I thought it was Tuesday!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wait...today is Wednesday?

0.o

I thought it was Tuesday!

Yes! In fact, it's almost Thursday!
Quoting DoctorDave1:
Concerning Antarctic ice - post# 248

"The wind change is likely caused by a combination of factors, including natural weather variation, the ozone hole and man-made greenhouse gases, Pritchard said in a phone interview."

Strange that he left out the important influence of world-wide cow farting. :)

Come on now, Keeper! We all know that 2012 was a joke of a movie.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wait...today is Wednesday?

0.o

I thought it was Tuesday!


I thought it was thursday till I read this haha

I'll be In early tomorrow, detention:( buenos noches.

It's gonna get hot heads up!!!
The 18z GFS jumped back on the idea of a TS in the East Pac 11-12 days from now...
Other than me, how else in here went through Wilma back in '05? Just curious.
Quoting weatherh98:


I thought it was thursday till I read this haha

I'll be In early tomorrow, detention:( buenos noches.

It's gonna get hot heads up!!!

What'd you do to get detention?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The 18z GFS jumped back on the idea of a TS in the East Pac 11-12 days from now...

Yep..

Thanks Keeper powerful and strangely invigorating
Quoting aspectre:
LargoFl anyone here read online "the Independant"...here is the Headline..pretty scary too if you ask me
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summer


If they're talking of the NorthPole itself (and not the ArcticOcean as whole), it wouldn't be a brand spanking new phenomenum.
Within recent years, an (or several) adventure-tourism "Expedition(s) to the NorthPole" failed because the ice had melted there and/or in an ocean area totally surrounding the NorthPole.
But before those recent "expedition"(s), the NorthPole had been solidly embedded in traversable sea-ice as far as anybody had checked.


The whole North Pole thing is interesting, I have talked to submariners who have surfaced at the North Pole and say that there was no ice there only slushy stuff. They don't mean it isn't normally iced over, just that sometimes its ice free.
Thinking about it if the North Pole area and Arctic ice in general melts completely then there will be a great imbalance in the temps at the poles? With the South Pole area running well below freezing all of the year and the North Pole running well above freezing, ice free? Well we might just be in for a few weather surprises! Maybe. maybe not, of course.
The implications of an ice free Northern Arctic Ocean have not yet been contemplated in sufficient depth!!
Quoting SubtropicalHi:
Gilbert was wild. It made final landfall at La Pesca, Tamaulipas Mex. (Around 24 N) Mammatus clouds completely covered the skies in San Antonio 8 hours before it landfall - about 400 miles away. The next day it spawned a bunch of tornadoes in South Texas.


I was just reading about that, while fruitlessly searching for something else, but that was pretty amazing.

September 16-17th, 1988 (Gilbert): The hurricane with the second lowest pressure ever recorded within the Western Hemisphere, Hurricane Gilbert tore across Jamaica with winds of 115 mph, before striking Cancun, Mexico as a strong category five with sustained winds estimated at 185 mph. To the right is an image of this hurricane on the 13th, provided by the National Climatic Data Center. As it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, its intensity never rose back above category three intensity. It is believed that significant dry air intrusion and cooler sea surface temperatures prevented Gilbert from restrengthening futher. Gilbert struck the coast of Mexico
on the 17th, before accelerating north and east into the Central Plains.

Even though Gilbert struck well south of the border, gusty winds and 29 tornadoes were seen with the system in Texas. The thirteen tornadoes that touched down in the San Antonio area caused $35 million of the damage. Gusts to 83 mph were measured near Brownsville. Although the heaviest rainfall from Gilbert fell south of the border in northeast Mexico, heavy rains fell along the Rio Grande valley past Del Rio, then across the Trans Pecos and Big Country regions of the state. Laredo set a daily rainfall record for the 16th (1.85"). South Padre Island was flooded by its storm surge. Three perished in San Antonio from tornadoes. Damages totaled $50 million.

I'll go with 14-7-3 for the 2012 Season. Just my take. No scientific data to back this , just a wild guess! Everyone have a goodnight!
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


ROFL...LOL...I found that video hugely entertaining...

The antics they used to report weather in the 1960s are better than today's (I liked Wilbur the bird and Clammity Clam). Apparently they had to scribble the weather map from memory (unlike today's meteorlogists on TV where the maps are auto-generated on a silver platter).


It was much easier when we only had 13 states. Much less territory to cover. Glad you enjoyed it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The 18Z GFS is showing a very potent system 48 hours out, or on Friday (April 27). Depending on cap erosion, we could be looking at isolated rain showers or isolated supercells capable of producing significant tornadoes.


yeah, the SPC said they may have to add updates to the forecast for tomorrow
Quoting stormpetrol:
I'll go with 14-7-3 for the 2012 Season. Just my take. No scientific data to back this , just a wild guess! Everyone have a goodnight!

Good night stormpetrol
Quoting PlazaRed:

Buenas Noches Caballero.
Estoy aqui en Espana y el tiempo is moy bueno.
La isla de frio u viento, con mucho humidad no es para mi y toda mis obras estan terminado.
Como la cosa's ahora? Donde andas?
Tenemoms una peste aqui? o No?

I have been back in Spain now for 2 months and there is a drought here of biblical proportions. The sun shines most of the time but they are having 90 MPH winds on the north coast at the moment with torrential rains.
A large deep low pressure is affecting the British Isles with powerful thunder storms and gales, it accompanies a return to long term financial recession.
Sort of Depression/Recession etc, rhymes
Que Sera, Srea?


Una peste???? I can never keep up with where you are.
Is not common to see flood advisories being issued in Puerto Rico on the nightime hours,but here is one tonight. There were three issued this afternoon.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012

PRC005-013-017-027-054-065-071-091-099-115-145-26 0345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0139.120426T0151Z-120426T0345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-FLORIDA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-MOCA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...FLORIDA...HATILLO...MANATI...MOCA... VEGA BAJA...
ARECIBO...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 946 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED EXPANDING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATE
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1145 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS...
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6691 1850 6678 1848 6674 1850 6660
1848 6646 1850 6640 1838 6642 1837 6656
1841 6678 1839 6709 1842 6717 1848 6718
1852 6714 1852 6710

$$

BCS
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Gilbert coverage.


Thanks,Geek!
Quoting PlazaRed:


The whole North Pole thing is interesting, I have talked to submariners who have surfaced at the North Pole and say that there was no ice there only slushy stuff. They don't mean it isn't normally iced over, just that sometimes its ice free.
Thinking about it if the North Pole area and Arctic ice in general melts completely then there will be a great imbalance in the temps at the poles? With the South Pole area running well below freezing all of the year and the North Pole running well above freezing, ice free? Well we might just be in for a few weather surprises! Maybe. maybe not, of course.
The implications of an ice free Northern Arctic Ocean have not yet been contemplated in sufficient depth!!


If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:
LOL...found some old hurricane season videos from the 1980s on youtube.

Some of the meteorologists in these videos are nuts. Particulary the first meterologist in this video covering Tropical Storm Bob 1985...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZturdeRpUg
This was fun to watch. Thank you for posting it..
I don't know what storm you are all talking about. I haven't seen anything on any of the forecast maps. Link, please!

Quoting Grothar:


If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?


Guess were just going to have to place a weather buoy right there.
US Senator Issues Press Release on Fukushima Spent Fuel Pools — Urges Japan to accept international help — Warns situation worse than reported after touring plant

Read letters sent to:

US Ambassador to Japan Fujisaki
Link

Secretary of Energy Chu
Link

Secretary of State Clinton
Link

NRC Chairman Jaczko
Link



________________________________________

Gov’t Report: EPA’s ability to protect human health with RadNet was “potentially impaired” for Fukushima — Officials questioned why they were using “dramatically less strict” standards for radiation contamination



Audit Confirms EPA Radiation Monitors Broken During Fukushima Crisis
Source: Global Security Newswire | NTI
Author: Douglas P. Guarino
Date: Apr 23, 2012
Emphasis Added

An internal audit has confirmed observers’ concerns that many of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s radiation monitors were out of service at the height of the 2011 Fukushima power plant meltdown in Japan [...]

RadNet consists of 124 stations scattered throughout U.S. territories and 40 deployable air monitors that can be sent to take readings anywhere, according to the IG report. [...]

At the time of the Fukushima crisis, “this critical infrastructure asset” was impaired because many monitors were broken, while others had not undergone filter changes in so long that they could not be used to accurately detect real-time radiation levels, the IG report says.

“On March 11, 2011, at the time of the Japan nuclear incident, 25 of the 124 installed RadNet monitors, or 20 percent, were out of service for an average of 130 days,” the report says. “In addition, six of the 12 RadNet monitors we sampled (50 percent) had gone over eight weeks without a filter change, and two of those for over 300 days,” the report adds, noting that EPA policy calls on operators to change the filters twice per week.

Currently, “EPA remains behind schedule for installing” radiation monitors and has not resolved contracting issues identified as causing similar problems with the system in a 2009 audit, the report says. “Until EPA improves contractor oversight, the agency’s ability to use RadNet data to protect human health and the environment, and meet requirements established in the National Response Framework for Radiological Incidents, is potentially impaired.” [...]

EPA uses FDA standards

[I]n Hilo, Hawaii, EPA had detected radioactive iodine in milk at concentrations of 18 picocuries per liter, which is about six times greater than the agency’s maximum contaminant level of 3 picocuries per liter for the contaminant in drinking water. In Little Rock, Ark., the agency detected radioactive iodine in milk at concentrations of 8.9 picocuries per liter – about three times the regulatory level.

At the time, the agency defended its statements that the iodine levels were not a threat by noting that they were below emergency guidelines established by the U.S. Food and Drug administration. Documents the agency released under the Freedom of Information Act showed that some EPA officials, though, had questioned whether the FDA guidelines were appropriate given how dramatically less strict they were than the agency’s own enforceable regulations.


Taking Action


Advocacy groups – including the Natural Resources Defense Council, Physicians for Social Responsibility and Committee to Bridge the Gap – raised concerns about broken and out of service monitors in an August 2011 letter to the agency and during an October 2011 presentation to top EPA officials in Washington.

Daniel Hirsch, a nuclear policy lecturer at the University of California (Santa Cruz) and president of Committee to Bridge the Gap

The April 19 report by the EPA Inspector General’s Office also casts further doubt on the agency’s already controversial claims that radiation from Fukushima did not pose any public health threat on U.S. soil
The report “raises serious questions about bland assurances at the height of the Fukushima disaster that no radiation was reaching the U.S.”
“It also raises serious questions about whether EPA will be prepared if a nuclear incident occurs in the United States”
Hirsch asked whether the agency “views its job as providing reassurance or providing factual information”

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wait...today is Wednesday?

0.o

I thought it was Tuesday!


If it's Tuesday, this must be Belgium. (Before your time, TA)
Quoting Grothar:


Una peste???? I can never keep up with where you are.

Estoy Aqui:-
En Andalucia.
Sometimes I have to go to other places, where there are inclement conditions and all sorts of undesirable background events going on but with the Freia de Abril in Sevila, the Motor GP in Jerez, and an unprecedented drought in the backyard, at least we have something to watch, whilst you are preparing for things of major atmospheric significance on the other side of the pillars of Hercules!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Is not common to see flood advisories being issued in Puerto Rico on the nightime hours,but here is one tonight. There were three issued this afternoon.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012

PRC005-013-017-027-054-065-071-091-099-115-145-26 0345-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0139.120426T0151Z-120426T0345Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BARCELONETA PR-FLORIDA PR-HATILLO PR-MANATI PR-MOCA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
ARECIBO PR-AGUADILLA PR-ISABELA PR-CAMUY PR-QUEBRADILLAS PR-
951 PM AST WED APR 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
BARCELONETA...FLORIDA...HATILLO...MANATI...MOCA... VEGA BAJA...
ARECIBO...AGUADILLA...ISABELA...CAMUY AND QUEBRADILLAS

* UNTIL 1145 PM AST

* AT 946 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED EXPANDING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES AND U.S.G.S. RAIN GAGES INDICATE
THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE
ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 INCH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 1145 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS...
AND POSSIBLY SOME FLOODING ON SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING
OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL
AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS
COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6691 1850 6678 1848 6674 1850 6660
1848 6646 1850 6640 1838 6642 1837 6656
1841 6678 1839 6709 1842 6717 1848 6718
1852 6714 1852 6710

$$

BCS

I saw the showers on radar, hopefully you'll have better conditions tomorrow
Quoting PlazaRed:

Estoy Aqui:-
En Andalucia.
Sometimes I have to go to other places, where there are inclement conditions and all sorts of undesirable background events going on but with the Freia de Abril in Sevila, the Motor GP in Jerez, and an unprecedented drought in the backyard, at least we have something to watch, whilst you are preparing for things of major atmospheric significance on the other side of the pillars of Hercules!


.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Estoy Aqui:-
En Andalucia.
Sometimes I have to go to other places, where there are inclement conditions and all sorts of undesirable background events going on but with the Freia de Abril in Sevila, the Motor GP in Jerez, and an unprecedented drought in the backyard, at least we have something to watch, whilst you are preparing for things of major atmospheric significance on the other side of the pillars of Hercules!


Sorry for the double post. I had a runaway cursor and it stretched my blog. Yes, I have been to a few places with undesirable background events, too. Luckily I have not traveled much lately. I have not been to Spain in many years. I don't think anyone who has not been there, know what a beautiful country it is.
Quoting Grothar:


If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?

Everybody agrees that the South one is safe for the moment at least, though Nea might dispute this later?
The North one is a bit of a problem but maybe some sort of gyroscopic, coriolis effect, aided by a few guy wires and a redundant Soviet geostationary submarine, would suffice until the onset of the next ice age!
Good Night All. Stay Safe and Have a Good Rest.
vote for Daffy Duck for president
Quoting PedleyCA:
Good Night All. Stay Safe and Have a Good Rest.

Same to you pedley
Interesting video

Quoting Tazmanian:
vote for Daffy Duck for president
HaHa! I love the Tazmaniac! Who's with me???
Quoting Grothar:


If there is no ice, what is going to hold up the poles?
LOL

Classic.
Good night fellow bloggers
Quoting nigel20:
Good night fellow bloggers
Have a good night Nigel!
Anyone up?
is cold here!! New Haven, CT – Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford, Branford, Connecticut (PWS)
39.0 °F Clear
fukishimia is not dead looking to be #1
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
417 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A PERSISTENT DRY AIRMASS AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WILL RESULT IN A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS.

THE DRY CONDITIONS AND DRY VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH DANGER
OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. FIRES MAY START RAPIDLY AND SHORT-DISTANCE
SPREADING BY EMBERS WILL BE COMMON. OUTDOOR BURNING MAY BE
PROHIBITED IN YOUR AREA.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
RH VALUES MAY AGAIN DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR LONG DURATIONS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE BY THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH...THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

GLITTO
Geesh.. when did this happen?
I'm on the road all day in south middle TN.. maybe I'll get some good photos of some weather..
I gotta say, the best part about spring rain is not that it is helping end the drought, but the fact that it washes the ?!&@?%* pollen out of the air!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What'd you do to get detention?


Squirted water out of a mio bottle in class and it flew up and went in the air, and then hit a table and she saw it lol

Good morning!

Its already hot this weekend could be some of the hottest temps all year!
Quoting JNCali:
Geesh.. when did this happen?
I'm on the road all day in south middle TN.. maybe I'll get some good photos of some weather..
Very windy here on the plateau last night. The worded forecast might throw anyone who is an amateur with the terminology and abbreviations......SRN WV/ERN KY TO MID-SOUTH REGION AND ERN OK...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF
SFC COLD FRONT DURING AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR IN MODE
WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND SPORADIC LARGE HAIL EXPECTED. TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL/BOWING STRUCTURES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE...LOCALLY ENHANCING
HAIL/WIND THREAT RESPECTIVELY. SFC DEW POINTS 60S F AND PLUME OF
ENHANCED MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH
STRENGTHENING SFC DIABATIC HEATING THROUGH AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
WEAK MLCINH AND POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT/GROWTH AND UPSCALE
MERGER OF CONVECTION. AS SUCH...AGGREGATED COLD POOLS MAY DEVELOP
IN SOME AREAS...ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCING WIND THREAT. OVERALL SVR
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE AFTER DARK...AS COMBINATION OF OUTFLOW POOLS
AND SFC COOLING REDUCES BUOYANCY. COVERAGE/DURATION SHOULD DIMINISH
FROM MID-SOUTH WWD OVER ERN OK.
Many/most of you have probably already seen this, but I thought it might be worthy of a repost, seeing as how it's that time of year again. It's a snippet of the IMAX documentary Stormchasers that deals with Hurricane Hunters. It's all pretty good, but punching through Emily's eyewall (roughly 3:00) is, IMO, the best part. (Best viewed in full-screen HD.)

Good morning! It appears that a low maybe trying to form north of Panama. Very early to see convection firing like this in the Southern Caribbean.




Heres a link to below to get a better picture of whats going on.
Link
Very windy here. Outflow boundaries I think.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Good morning! It appears that a low maybe trying to form north of Panama. Very early to see convection firing like this in the Southern Caribbean.




Heres a link to below to get a better picture of whats going on.
Link
It is certainly not unusual to have a low pressure area form on the tail end of a front. I must say, if it stayed there long enough, and shear was minimal, we could have something..I do think there will be more heavy rain.
Oh My!! I bet we see Alberto soon. Those dark greens extend all the way up to S FL. GEESHH!!



This is the result.


This is as the MJO peaks.




I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?
Quoting stormpetrol:



I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?


I agree the shear is the biggest obstacle but there seems to be a spin there north of Panama so we will see what happens over the next several days.

Gusty storms moving across the Smokey MTNs this morning.



Bahamas will have a nasty weekend this one coming up...
Quoting stormpetrol:



I would say shear is the biggest obstacle to anything forming in the SW caribbean, though if it relaxes a bit who knows?

Yep. Getting it to relax 15-20kt at the end of april is the issue.
Quoting ncstorm:
The CMC just slams the bahamas and keys and eventually Florida with heavy rain starting this Sunday into Next Sunday




The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)
Quoting jeffs713:

The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)


actually the CMC along with the Euro have been pretty good with formation of storms lately (I know they aren't tropical)as opposed to the GFS being the outlier in some cases..It also goes by the name "Canadian Model on Crack"..lets see if the winning streak will continue into the tropical season
Quoting ncstorm:


actually the CMC along with the Euro have been pretty good with formation of storms lately (I know they aren't tropical)as opposed to the GFS being the outlier in some cases..It also goes by the name "Canadian Model on Crack"..lets see if the winning streak will continue into the tropical season


I honestly don't look at the CMC that much, preferring to focus on the ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and RUC models. (RUC for local weather)

I will watch the CMC during hurricane season, but it is kept in mind more as a consistent outlier (it is consistently an outlier, that is). If the CMC agrees with what other models are putting together... then I *know* something is up.
Quoting jeffs713:

The CMC seems to be the outlier for the models (as far as rainfall totals go). Most of the models are forecasting rain, but the CMC tries to spin the system up pretty quickly... Then again, CMC = Constantly Making Cyclones. (the CMC has never handled tropical or subtropical environments well, as it is focused on Canada, and isn't really designed for the dynamics inherent in the tropics)
we sure could use the rain here in florida, getting real dry here again
Hey folks. Just letting u know I'm still alive! Looking forward to the coming season!
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-262200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
900 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

.NOW...
...SUNNY AND WARM THIS AFTERNOON...VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER INLAND...


UNDER SUNNY SKIES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE LOWER 80S ALONG
THE COAST AND THE MID TO UPPER 80S INLAND. A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
CONTINUES FOR VOLUSIA...LAKE...SEMINOLE...ORANGE...OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
COUPLE WITH DRY GROUND CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE COUNTIES.

&&

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...INCLUDING GRAPHICS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/BLOG.PHP

$$
I've issued a special tropical update immediatlely this morning concenring the disturbance developing in the central Caribbean...check it out!

Good morning all

April 26, 2012 SST Anomaly
I see the SPC upgraded to slight risk for my area today and upgraded the whole state of NC for a 2% tornado risk



April 25, 2011

April 25, 2012

SEL0

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 190
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
805 AM EDT THU APR 26 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE
FAR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 805 AM UNTIL
100 PM EDT.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF BRISTOL TENNESSEE TO 110 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
ASHEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH
SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 188...WW 189...

DISCUSSION...A LONG-LIVED/FAST MOVING MCS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
APPROACH/MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION THIS MORNING.
EVEN WHILE INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE MCS WILL BE TEMPERED AS IT
APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS...THE WELL-ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING NATURE OF
THE MCS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN AT LEAST AN ISOLATED DAMAGING
WIND/SEVERE HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 31045.

XX/AOI/XL
All the other models push it well east of Florida by Monday.
Quoting weatherbro:
All the other models push it well east of Florida by Monday then into the Atlantic south of Bermuda.