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Major winter storm pounds Pacific Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:24 PM GMT on January 18, 2012

A ferocious winter storm is pounding the Pacific Northwest, bringing heavy snow, flooding rains, and winds near hurricane force over coastal waters. The snow is falling in earnest in Seattle this morning, where 3 - 5 inches are expected. The storm's heaviest snows have fallen in Southwest Washington, just north of Portland, Oregon, where Toutle, Washington received 18" as of 6 am PST this morning. The storm also brought 2 inches of snow to Portland, Oregon overnight. The wet, heavy snow brought down numerous trees and power lines, causing power outages to 30,000 people. Portland averages just 6.5 inches of snow per year. Very heavy snows of 1 - 3 feet have fallen in the Cascade Mountains east of Seattle, causing extreme avalanche danger. From the latest NWS Seattle forecast discussion:

Strong winds and heavy snow have overloaded fragile snow layers weakly attached to old crusts and produced increasingly large and sensitive avalanches. Field reports late Tuesday already indicated lots of natural and human triggered slides ranging from about 1 to 3 feet deep. Avalanche warnings already in effect for high danger...and with warming...further winds and additional heavy to very heavy snow...some quite dense...avalanche activity should become larger and more severe on Wednesday. This should lead to extreme danger above about 5000 feet with increasing high danger below. Due to very dangerous conditions getting worse...back country travel should be avoided Wednesday.

At sea, the National Weather Service has issued a hurricane force wind warning for the Southern Oregon coastal waters. Hurricane force winds of 70 - 75 mph, gusting to 90 mph, are expected today, with waves of 22 - 25 feet.


Figure 1. Heavy snow in Mt. Vernon, Washington on January 17, 2012. Image credit: wunderphotographer spiritjoy.

Seattle snow history
Seattle only averages 8 inches of snow each winter, and so today's storm is a major event for them. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, the last major snowfall for Seattle (Sea-Tac Airport location) was 12.0" over the week of Dec. 18 - 25, 2008. It appears the max. 24-hour fall during that event was 6.0" on Dec. 20 - 21. Prior to 2008, it appears Nov. 1985 had 17.5", but what the biggest storm 24-hour total then is not clear. Seattle's record 24-hour snowfall was 21.5" on Feb. 2, 1916, and 32.5" fell as a storm total between Jan. 31 - Feb. 2, 1916. Much deeper snow was reported during the famous Storm King event of January 9 - 12, 1880 when "four to six feet" accumulated according to press reports.


Figure 2. Satellite estimated water vapor in the atmospheric expressed as how much rain would fall if the entire amount of vapor were condensed in a vertical column. Where this "Total Precipitable Water" exceeds about 25.4 mm (1 inch), heavy precipitation can occur. An "Atmospheric River" extending from Hawaii with very moist air harboring precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (38 mm, light blue colors) is impacting the coast near the Washington/Oregon border, bringing heavy rains and snows. Image credit: University of Wisconsin SSEC.

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters
The driveway
The driveway
After 12 inches of snow here in Clearview Washington. We are about 30 miles north east of Seattle.
Parting 2
Parting 2
The clouds part after the snow storm at Silver Lake, WA
Powder Land
Powder Land
5-6 inches so far, with an extra 1-2 feet expected by Thursday! This picture was shot in a short break of the snow.
Top hats
Top hats
Lots of snow at Lake Cavanaugh, at least a foot. This is a little east of Mt. Vernon, about 50 miles north of Seattle.
Snow!!! III
Snow!!! III
Snow at the beach, a pretty rare sight.

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 18 2012
====================================

At 1000 AM UTC, low level circulation center is centered near 16.6S 41.4E, slowly drifting east southeastwards. Surface low pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa (1005.7 hPa at Juan de Nova at 0900 AM UTC). 0603Z ASCAT swath shows maximum winds at about 15/20 kt within a well defined clockwise circulation.

Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to TAU 60 to 72h and then a south-eastwards track. American numerical weather prediction models NOGAPS and GFS and the consensus CONW forecast a more quickly track towards the south in a first time then a west southwestwards track more closer to the African coastline.

Over all this aforementioned tracks, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflows on the both sides , weak vertical wind shear and a good upper level divergence , well sustained by 2 upper level outflow channels. Heat Potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. Convective activity is currently not consolidated enough near the center for rapid intensification within the next 24 hours but potential for further deepening is good and a system at a significant stage is expected in this area within the next days. Depending of the uncertain future track and more likely intensity, this meteor should concern directly or indirectly Mozambique and western Malagasy coastlines.
Second. Thats allota snow.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20112012
16:00 PM RET January 18 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (1000 hPa) located at 13.1S 69.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 14.1S 67.6E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.7S 65.7E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.0S 64.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 20.6S 62.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west-south-westwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is however partially exposed on the eastern edge of the small curved band.

Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. Low level equatorward inflow remains rather good but indirect due to the intertropical convergence zone in the north.. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within Thursday 19th in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently benefit from 2 good outflow channels. The equatorward one is expected to progressively dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours but the poleward one should improve day after day. Vertical easterly wind shear remains weak to moderate within the next 30 hours.
more snow and cold yet to come

thanks for update doc have a good day
Meteor?

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
15:00 RET January 18 2012
====================================

At 1000 AM UTC, low level circulation center is centered near 16.6S 41.4E, slowly drifting east southeastwards. Surface low pressure is estimated at 1003 hPa (1005.7 hPa at Juan de Nova at 0900 AM UTC). 0603Z ASCAT swath shows maximum winds at about 15/20 kt within a well defined clockwise circulation.

Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to TAU 60 to 72h and then a south-eastwards track. American numerical weather prediction models NOGAPS and GFS and the consensus CONW forecast a more quickly track towards the south in a first time then a west southwestwards track more closer to the African coastline.

Over all this aforementioned tracks, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflows on the both sides , weak vertical wind shear and a good upper level divergence , well sustained by 2 upper level outflow channels. Heat Potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. Convective activity is currently not consolidated enough near the center for rapid intensification within the next 24 hours but potential for further deepening is good and a system at a significant stage is expected in this area within the next days. Depending of the uncertain future track and more likely intensity, this meteor should concern directly or indirectly Mozambique and western Malagasy coastlines.
NWS has 20% for my area today, somehow I'm not buying that lol. Convection has become more impressive ahead of the front in recent trends, not weaker.
Long range 06ZGFS showing big time rains along TX/LA coast around the 25th and 26th, and massive arctic outbreak on the 3rd of February with 2 large ridges off the US coasts of the Atlantic and Pacific plunging Arctic air down the plains...
I don't even shovel the drive for 10".

Seriously, is this system related to those that dropped all the snow on Alaska this winter?
February might be colder than January, which seems what always happens the past few years
Quoting RitaEvac:
February might be colder than January, which seems what always happens the past few years
For some reason I'm not buying it, at least here in the Southeast. Seems like the Northwest is the place to be if you want snowfall. We might get some severe weather in February, but not expecting any real cold air.
Quoting RitaEvac:
February might be colder than January, which seems what always happens the past few years


Later winters?
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Later winters?


In TX February's are known to be colder than January

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting RitaEvac:


In TX February's are known to be colder than January


Perry seems to follow dat trend as well.

: )
The snow machine is finally turning out west! Calling for several disturbances to impact central/northern Colorado through Sunday bringing lots of moisture with it. The first disturbance today is set to bring another round of serious winds to the mountains and foothills with gusts up to 120mph!

Quoting Patrap:


Perry seems to follow dat trend as well.

: )


Who Dat??
Quoting RitaEvac:


In TX February's are known to be colder than January


Oh, I agree. I was just thinking that last weekend I was sweating, in a t-shirt, while out mowing the yard and doing some general spring yard work. I never remember having to mow the yard in January before. ... I hope I never have to do so again. That just ain't right! ;-)
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Oh, I agree. I was just thinking that last weekend I was sweating, in a t-shirt, while out mowing the yard and doing some general spring yard work. I never remember having to mow the yard in January before. ... I hope I never have to do so again. That just ain't right! ;-)


Clover and weeds growing like crazy with the warm spells and rainfall
Quoting RitaEvac:


Clover and weeds growing like crazy with the warm spells and rainfall


The weeds, being weeds, did survive the drought quite well. The recent warm spells and much needed rain did result in a sudden uprising, shall we say, of the weeds. Very, very little clover this year. That is a first, for me. ... The pecan trees survived! That was my biggest concern over the past summer.
Really that's all people are mowing is weeds not the grass
FINALLY! a real live pacific storm watcher style storm! This type of weather is not unusual for the Pacific NW. What's unusual is the long dry spell leading up to it. Felt like we were living in the Gobi Desert. And then, on top of that, LA was trying to divert every storm to the south, polluting the heck out of everything with aluminum dust.
Think I'll dance in the rain, beautiful rain!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


The weeds, being weeds, did survive the drought quite well. The recent warm spells and much needed rain did result in a sudden uprising, shall we say, of the weeds. Very, very little clover this year. That is a first, for me. ... The pecan trees survived! That was my biggest concern over the past summer.


Pecan trees have a tap root that is deep as the tree is high, so I was told.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Really that's all people are mowing is weeds not the grass


Very much true but, I have never had to mow in January before now.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Very much true but, I have never had to mow in January before now.


Good for the lawnmower, keeps the gas from sitting in the tank stagnant, not good for it
we got nailed lastnight log trip to work they havent plowed the roads yet
Quoting RitaEvac:


Pecan trees have a tap root that is deep as the tree is high, so I was told.


An interesting read.

Evaluating Pecan Trees
Quoting RitaEvac:


Good for the lawnmower, keeps the gas from sitting in the tank stagnant, not good for it


That is why I condition the gas with "Sea Foam" for the winter months. .... When I went to get the riding mower out last weekend, I could imagine the mower asking, "What? Spring already?".
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


That is why I condition the gas with "Sea Foam" for the winter months. .... When I went to get the riding mower out last weekend, I could imagine the mower asking, "What? Spring already?".


sea foam?
Hey Pat and all.

We planted a camelia last winter, kept it alive through the drought, and it is stupendous now!
For the record:
O900 PST
6" of light snow accumulation measured.
Approximate rate of accumulation: 1" per hour.
We are about 100 miles northwest of Seattle. Environment Canada is still calling for up to 5 cm (2").
Just now they have issued a warning:
"Amount 10 to 20 cm except 5 cm over northern sections. High minus 3."
Looks like we may exceed the "20 cm." (8") warning.
We were predicted to be just north of the main snow amounts and I guess we are from the report above.
nice blog
Quoting Jedkins01:
NWS has 20% for my area today, somehow I'm not buying that lol. Convection has become more impressive ahead of the front in recent trends, not weaker.


Yeah I know! The times we had likely rain chances it amounted to nothing this however looks pretty impressive. There are some strong thunderstorms embedded in this rain shield heading toward the W Coast of FL.

Great post Doc! You must have read mine and Nea's post this morning.
If this verifies the NWS offices Of Tampa & Melbourne might want to think about make some changes to their forecast for this weekend and next week.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Great post Doc! You must have read mine and Nea's post this morning.


Hey Storm, I posted that last night first, and you commented on it. How come you mention Nea and not me? LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Hey Storm, I posted that last night first, and you commented on it. How come you mention Nea and not me? LOL


Sorry to be honest I forgot about that. My memory is not the best and I'm only 31.

Lots of lightning with these storms coming ashore right now.

992 mb Low

Quoting RitaEvac:


sea foam?


Yes, it is the name of a gasoline stabalizer. Most automotive parts houses will have it.
Quoting RitaEvac:


sea foam?


Sea Foam is one of those miracle things you put in any engine to clean the engine, store fuel while the engine is not in use for long periods of time, etc. It is a pretty cool product!

Link
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Sea Foam is one of those miracle things you put in any engine to clean the engine, store fuel while the engine is not in use for long periods of time, etc. It is a pretty cool product!

Link


Oh yea, I remember a guy at AutoZone telling me about this stuff
Quoting ycd0108:
For the record:
O900 PST
6" of light snow accumulation measured.
Approximate rate of accumulation: 1" per hour.
We are about 100 miles northwest of Seattle. Environment Canada is still calling for up to 5 cm (2").
Just now they have issued a warning:
"Amount 10 to 20 cm except 5 cm over northern sections. High minus 3."
Looks like we may exceed the "20 cm." (8") warning.
We were predicted to be just north of the main snow amounts and I guess we are from the report above.
That can't be right. Storm stops at the 49 parallel. Saw it on the TV weather map.


Two earthquakes this morning in Virginia, biggest was 2.5,

Two earthquakes in extreme SE Missouri of 1.6 and 1.9

Earthquake in Arkansas of 2.1 this morning as well

Seattle has more snow than the D.C area has thus far.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies the NWS offices Of Tampa & Melbourne might want to think about make some changes to their forecast for this weekend and next week.

quiet here now and overcast, temp around 71, the cool front is just north of me, might get a shower maybe out of this one, supposedly the weekend will be nicer, hope that dont play out with THAT model lol
Quoting Patrap:

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
i dont know why folks keep denying this warming trend, the earth goes thru these changes since its beginning, warm for a few thousand then cold or a few thousand, florida under water, florida out of the water..glaciers growing, glaciers receeding etc..its all normal in the grand scheme of things, humans are just witnessing this particular change and think its NOT normal or man made..sheesh
Shen: I saw that too.
I'm not sure what this stuff is but I had better get out there and shovel some off the deck.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
For some reason I'm not buying it, at least here in the Southeast. Seems like the Northwest is the place to be if you want snowfall. We might get some severe weather in February, but not expecting any real cold air.


dont count cold weather out in febuary the PNA and NAO are forecast to be trending towards a scenario for cold weather in east/southeast
Quoting kellnerp:
I don't even shovel the drive for 10".

Seriously, is this system related to those that dropped all the snow on Alaska this winter?


Well it depends on what you mean by "related", but it was not created by the same pattern that brought us all of the snow here in Alaska.
Wow it got quiet, lol.
Oregon is getting it bad right now. Port Orford recently reported a 77mph gust, and they're still expecting worse. Oh, and rain is in the forecast; lots and lots of rain:

Today: Rain. High near 49. Windy, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight: Rain. Low around 49. Windy, with a south wind between 36 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday: Rain. High near 51. Windy, with a south wind between 33 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 49. South southwest wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday: Rain. High near 51. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 18 mph increasing to between 34 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: Rain. Low around 47. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday: Showers. High near 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44.

Sunday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49.

Sunday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 43.

Monday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oregon is getting it bad right now. Port Orford recently reported a 77mph gust, and they're still expecting worse. Oh, and rain is in the forecast; lots and lots of rain:

Today: Rain. High near 49. Windy, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 95 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Tonight: Rain. Low around 49. Windy, with a south wind between 36 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday: Rain. High near 51. Windy, with a south wind between 33 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Thursday Night: Rain. Low around 49. South southwest wind between 11 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Friday: Rain. High near 51. Windy, with a south wind 15 to 18 mph increasing to between 34 and 37 mph. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: Rain. Low around 47. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Saturday: Showers. High near 48. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 44.

Sunday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 49.

Sunday Night: Rain. Cloudy, with a low around 43.

Monday: Rain. Cloudy, with a high near 50.
Hi all, Nea, I would call that normal weather for Oregon this time of year, except for the wind gusts. I was wondering, do they marvel at a sunny day the way Floridians marvel at a rainy day?
I play a game on the internet called roblox, they have started the protesting against sopa. Here's a link to the blog post on roblox. IMO, SOPA would destroy the internet, it would make many businesses decline and eventually collapse. Also, if it gets passed, we will lose search engines, and without the internet, we would not have the knowledge we have right now, we NEED the info, piracy or not.
If this passes...it will destroy alot of the internet.
Imagine the world without the web! :-(


Oh yeah, and if seattle doesn't want the snow, I will be glad to get it! :)
In the far southern oceans at least, GlobalWarming is producing larger soaring seabirds.
GlobalWarming = higher winds = bigger waves
Higher winds hitting bigger winds = stronger updrafts
Stronger updrafts = easier soaring for seabirds
Easier soaring = less calories expended on flight
Less calories for flight = less time needed for feeding to satiety
Less time needed for feeding = shorter fasting periods for the seabird's mate guarding the nest
Shorter periods of fasting = larger sea birds

Evolutionarily, the higher winds would also make survival easier for seabirds with genes that produce a tendency toward growing larger.
Quoting Levi32:


Well it depends on what you mean by "related", but it was not created by the same pattern that brought us all of the snow here in Alaska.

Thanks. What I wanted to know.
Quoting LargoFl:
quiet here now and overcast, temp around 71, the cool front is just north of me, might get a shower maybe out of this one, supposedly the weekend will be nicer, hope that dont play out with THAT model lol
light off and on showers, a few thunder boomers off in the distance, cool front is approaching
Quoting kwgirl:
Hi all, Nea, I would call that normal weather for Oregon this time of year, except for the wind gusts. I was wondering, do they marvel at a sunny day the way Floridians marvel at a rainy day?


Yes, we do! :-)
62. N3EG
The snow overnight was bad, but now we've got two inches of slush to walk through. Next comes the pineapples and the flooding...
For those in the Virginia area who were wondering what the "weird noises" were:
Small quake rattles central Virginia, 82nd since last summer
World Bank Warns: Global Recession Risk High!

January 18, 2012 by Daily Market Briefing
The World Bank Wednesday slashed its 2012 growth forecasts for both emerging and developing economies from its estimates of only six months ago, and warned the world is on the cusp of a new global recession that could be as bad as the crisis four years ago.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) --
It warned that an escalation in Europe's sovereign debt crisis, a new oil shock, or a "hard landing" in one of the larger developing economies could trigger a global economic downturn. The bank added that the risks of those events makes even the bank's lowered growth forecasts "very uncertain."

A meltdown in financial markets triggered by the sovereign debt problems in Europe poses the greatest immediate risk, according to the report.

"An escalation of the crisis would spare no one," said Andrew Burns, manager of global macroeconomics and lead author of the report. "Developed and developing country growth rates could fall by as much or more than in 2008 and 2009."

A full-blown European crisis would shave a full 4 percentage points off of global growth, which would tip the global economy from a position of weak growth into recession.

Quoting aspectre:
For those in the Virginia area who were wondering what the "weird noises" were:
Small quake rattles central Virginia, 82nd since last summer

The earthquakes occurred last night,
The posts were posted yesterday about the day before.
So it's not seismic related. I might be wrong though.
From a post on another site


What is coming isn't a recession. It's a depression. We are already in it, Just take a look at Food Stamps participation and the REAL unemployment rate (21-22%) and you'll see it's true.

They never solved anything back in 08-09. They just bailed out the "too big too fail" and kept the same old song going. Not a single regulation on the derivatives market was passed, not a single change in US debt policy was made, and the same criminals that created the 2008 crisis are still the ones in charge of the world's financial system.

Since then the stock market has recovered, yes. Why? Because of near zero interest rates. Remember what happened back in 03 when interest rates were low, they inflated the housing bubble. What's happening now? They are inflating another bubble! This is the bubble of all bubbles, it's a worldwide bubble based on how the "recovery" well doing. Just look at yesterday's market report to have the proof. Markets all around the world IGNORED the Eurozone downgrades (which is pretty big deal) and felt back on reports coming from China (who is known for manipulating it's economic data for a long time).

US and Europe debt problems are real, still investors prefer to ignore them. As it is going right now, we're heading straight into a wall. Once the interests rates will go up again (they can't remain low forever.), interest payments on these countries debt will skyrocket untill these countries will not be able to pay back their loans, and they will just default. This is what's currently happening in Greece and Iceland. This is what's coming for the US and the rest of the Eurozone. Who bails the US out when it defaults on it's 15 TRILLION dollars debt?

What we are witnessing is the possible complete collapse of our financial system. It has generated so much debt over the years that it cannot function right anymore. If major reforms aren't brought up for the US, Europe, and the "too big to fail", well everything will just shut down.

You cannot put gas in a broken engine and expect it to run right forever. One day the engine will break beyond repair and the car won't work anymore. What we're seeing right now is faith in a broken engine.

Get out of debt ASAP. As soon 10 yr bonds will be down enough, they will be looking at interest rates raises, if you have money invested into the market, this will be the right moment to sell off.

Buy silver, canned food, seeds and ammo
Quoting SPLbeater:


dont count cold weather out in febuary the PNA and NAO are forecast to be trending towards a scenario for cold weather in east/southeast
febuary per normal is normally the coldest month of all the winter,also the shortest month then spring begins.
march 1st marks the 90 days before cane season starts 90 days is not that long
Yesterday's tornadoes in Kentucky/Indiana were "the region's most prolific January tornado outbreak ever recorded". The preliminary tornado count for this month so far is 13. That compares with 16 all of last January, and a three-year average of 17 (2010 saw 30).

I overheard one weather watcher wondering whether this week's Pacific Northwest storm could be the first billion-dollar disaster of 2012. Guess we'll see...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
febuary per normal is normally the coldest month of all the winter,also the shortest month then spring begins.


In the south,if there hasn't been freezes during the month of January, I've seen things blooming by February such as the flowers on the peach trees and fig trees budding out leaves only to get wiped out by a hard freeze in mid to late February
There is little hope of February being a cold month for the United States. In all honesty, it looks like February will be, to use Levi's term, "blowtorch warm", especially in the Eastern USA, where it has been well above average all winter.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
febuary per normal is normally the coldest month of all the winter,also the shortest month then spring begins.


I thought January was the coldest in correspondence to July being the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere?
Quoting wxgeek723:


I thought January was the coldest in correspondence to July being the warmest in the Northern Hemisphere?

It is.
12ZGFS showing massive ridge amplification around the 31st, building down from Canada, super cold air outbreak over Canada, being sucked from other side from Siberia with 1050mb core over Yukon. Jet stream looks too progressive west to east to bomb it south
Nine tornadoes were confirmed in the first 'real' Severe Weather Outbreak of 2012. Of the confirmed tornadoes, three were rated EF0, five were rated EF1, and one was rated an EF2.

Other than tornadoes, six reports of hail were reported, with the largest being golf balls. In addition, 146 reports of high winds were reported. Three have been injured, but still, no fatalities. (:
Here in New England the coldest period for us is the last two weeks in January and the first two weeks of February.
Coldest is usually late Dec. - Jan. up here in C IL, always have a Feb. thaw it seems.

Rem. going to Portland on biz in '92, they'd had 10' on Mt. Hood over the previous few weeks. Thought I'd have fun skiing, but night before got up there, freeze line moved up to 7000' feet, ice hitting me in face all day and crust on snow - not much better than WI hills. Went to lower area next day, rain instead of ice, but much more enjoyable. At least I can say I skied it.

47) Answered some of your concerns from yesterday at end of previous blog.
SOPA is stupid
Quoting LargoFl:
i dont know why folks keep denying this warming trend, the earth goes thru these changes since its beginning, warm for a few thousand then cold or a few thousand, florida under water, florida out of the water..glaciers growing, glaciers receeding etc..its all normal in the grand scheme of things, humans are just witnessing this particular change and think its NOT normal or man made..sheesh


No, what we are seeing isn't normal.That's been pretty well established. Isotope analysis shows that the additional carbon going into the atmosphere is from fossil fuels. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere hasn't been this high since the Mesozoic. That alone should be cause for concern. However, there is a huge amount of additional data and research demonstrating that this warming is not natural.

The Earth's surface does not spontaneously warm up or cool off on a global scale without something to drive that change. Drivers can be large volcanic eruptions, positive feedback thresholds, meteor impacts, etc. . But whatever the scenario, something triggered the change.

The Earth does not produce a significant amount of surface heat. Without the atmosphere to trap heat, the Earth's global average temperature would be below freezing. This is known as the greenhouse effect and was first studied in the late 19th century.

Remove all the complexity from the situation and look at it from a logical standpoint. The planet has warmed significantly. In order to increase planetary temperature, there either has to be a planetary change that increases the net heat trapped by the planet, or the sun has to put out more energy (or a mixture of both). The laws of physics are pretty clear on this. Energy doesn't come out of nowhere, especially energy of the magnitude require to significantly heat a planet.

The most obvious source for additional heating would be the sun. However, solar output has not increased in any significant fashion over the past 100 years, and certainly not over the past 50 years where even more accurate records track the sun. In fact we were in a relative lull recently and temperatures still remained warm.

With sun ruled out, we have to look at planetary changes to account for the heating. Starting from what we know, we can eliminate several possible factors. We know the heating has been very recent (past 100 years or so). We know it has happened rapidly. This narrows the possible causes down to planetary changes that have happened within the recent past.

Orbital and axial variations are ruled out (if any such changes had happened in the pat 100 years, you would certainly notice it). There hasn't been any sudden increase in geothermal releases (again, this is something that would be quite obvious).

So what has changed significantly on the planet in the past 100 years that could possibly trap additional heat on a planetary scale? Well, since the beginning of the industrial age human activities have added a significant amount of various greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Given that these greenhouse gases are known for there ability to trap heat, the logical conclusion is that the recent rapid warming has been triggered by us.

If you have another possible mechanism whereby the planet's recent rapid warming can happen without increased solar output, orbital or axial variations, or the increased effect of greenhouse gases from human activity, then I would be most interested to hear it.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is little hope of February being a cold month for the United States. In all honesty, it looks like February will be, to use Levi's term, "blowtorch warm", especially in the Eastern USA, where it has been well above average all winter.



when is that forecasted for or is that winter history
Plains go into DEEP FREEZE by the 3rd
Quoting SPLbeater:


when is that forecasted for or is that winter history

For February.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, what we are seeing isn't normal.That's been pretty well established. Isotope analysis shows that the additional carbon going into the atmosphere is from fossil fuels. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere hasn't been this high since the Mesozoic. That alone should be cause for concern. However, there is a huge amount of additional data and research demonstrating that this warming is not natural.

The Earth's surface does not spontaneously warm up or cool off on a global scale without something to drive that change. Drivers can be large volcanic eruptions, positive feedback thresholds, meteor impacts, etc. . But whatever the scenario, something triggered the change.

The Earth does not produce a significant amount of surface heat. Without the atmosphere to trap heat, the Earth's global average temperature would be below freezing. This is known as the greenhouse effect and was first studied in the late 19th century.

Remove all the complexity from the situation and look at it from a logical standpoint. The planet has warmed significantly. In order to increase planetary temperature, there either has to be a planetary change that increases the net heat trapped by the planet, or the sun has to put out more energy (or a mixture of both). The laws of physics are pretty clear on this. Energy doesn't come out of nowhere, especially energy of the magnitude require to significantly heat a planet.

The most obvious source for additional heating would be the sun. However, solar output has not increased in any significant fashion over the past 100 years, and certainly not over the past 50 years where even more accurate records track the sun. In fact we were in a relative lull recently and temperatures still remained warm.

With sun ruled out, we have to look at planetary changes to account for the heating. Starting from what we know, we can eliminate several possible factors. We know the heating has been very recent (past 100 years or so). We know it has happened rapidly. This narrows the possible causes down to planetary changes that have happened within the recent past.

Orbital and axial variations are ruled out (if any such changes had happened in the pat 100 years, you would certainly notice it). There hasn't been any sudden increase in geothermal releases (again, this is something that would be quite obvious).

So what has changed significantly on the planet in the past 100 years that could possibly trap additional heat on a planetary scale? Well, since the beginning of the industrial age human activities have added a significant amount of various greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Given that these greenhouse gases are known for there ability to trap heat, the logical conclusion is that the recent rapid warming has been triggered by us.

If you have another possible mechanism whereby the planet's recent rapid warming can happen without increased solar output, orbital or axial variations, or the increased effect of greenhouse gases from human activity, then I would be most interested to hear it.


It's called the SUN, it controls everything on this planet


Forecasted to be barely in the negative if not going positive.
Quoting aspectre:
Congressional Republicans kill Keystone pipeline project


Then everybody in America better shut up and get ready to pay SKY HIIIIIGH fuel prices.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Then everybody in America better shut up and get ready to pay SKY HIIIIIGH fuel prices.


If gas is so high then I would really appreciate if they could lower bicycle prices to bout 25$ lol...get me a speed bike to ride to church
I have a question for anyone that feels like answering..There have been reports of strange sounds all over the globe, why are the main news channels talking about these events?
Additional to #86, SkyePony gave me link awhile back that shows plain and simple what a positive PNA does for the Eastern CONUS. Link
Quoting SPLbeater:


Forecasted to be barely in the negative if not going positive.
The models have failed us where the NAO is concerned. I do believe February will have a couple of big snow storms. There will be a severe weather outbreak next week.
Quoting hydrus:
The models have failed us where the NAO is concerned. I do believe February will have a couple of big snow storms. There will be a severe weather outbreak next week.


If u noticed that was the PNA not the NAO. :D

And, if you look at the 14 day forecast history on the PNA, the models havnt been that accurate on intensity of it, but have covered overall action of it. Wether it goes positive or dives negative.
There's been a 110 mph wind gust at Otter Rock, Oregon. That, and 28" of snow at Mt. Hood Meadows.

Ouch.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Then everybody in America better shut up and get ready to pay SKY HIIIIIGH fuel prices.


But then again, if economy tanks, it wont matter people wont be doing anything, making prices fall
Quoting RitaEvac:


Then everybody in America better shut up and get ready to pay SKY HIIIIIGH fuel prices.


I was already prepared to pay sky high fuel prices. Well, maybe prepared is not the right word. Expecting would be the better word to use here. What happens every time there is an uptick in the economy? What happens to the economy ever time fuel prices go sky high? ... Now, imagine that the dog is watching as we chase our own tail.

How would the pipeline prevent sky high fuel prices?
Quoting LargoFl:
i dont know why folks keep denying this warming trend, the earth goes thru these changes since its beginning, warm for a few thousand then cold or a few thousand, florida under water, florida out of the water..glaciers growing, glaciers receeding etc..its all normal in the grand scheme of things...sheesh


Yes, it is normal. Our current understanding of physics shows that it is normal for the average global temperature to change when the planetary energy balance is out of equilibrium. During the current geologic period, the lack of equilibrium is being caused mostly by a change in greenhouse gas concentrations traced to human activities.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was already prepared to pay sky high fuel prices. Well, maybe prepared is not the right word. Expecting would be the better word to use here. What happens every time there is an uptick in the economy? What happens to the economy ever time fuel prices go sky high? ... Now, imagine that the dog is watching as we chase our own tail.

How would the pipeline prevent sky high fuel prices?


Punishment by the elite, only way to get outta this, is for the whole global system to tank into the ground. Make the rich lose their investments and their a$$, little people like us have less, shall have less to lose. Then grab the pitch forks and torches and rule
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I was already prepared to pay sky high fuel prices. Well, maybe prepared is not the right word. Expecting would be the better word to use here. What happens every time there is an uptick in the economy? What happens to the economy ever time fuel prices go sky high? ... Now, imagine that the dog is watching as we chase our own tail.

How would the pipeline prevent sky high fuel prices?


It likely won't. Tar sands are not oil. The processing required to create gasoline is more intensive than using crude oil. Given that we use more oil in the U.S. than can ever be supplied by oil or any other gasoline source within our borders, we are dependent on world demand because oil is on the world market. Without alternative sources of energy, there is no incentive for lower prices. Providing another avenue to keep using the same fuel source provides no alternative and just further feeds the addiction.
aspectre "For those in the Virginia area who were wondering what the "weird noises" were:
Small quake rattles central Virginia, 82nd since last summer."
66 Articuno "The earthquakes occurred last night.
The posts were posted yesterday about the day before.
So it's not seismic related. I might be wrong though.
"

I was thinking more in terms of the series of 82 earthquakes since last summer.
And of pulling a shed down: tend to hear some creaks and groans before the building falls over.
Virginia is shot through and through with caves, caverns, and mines. Which would tend to amplify and transmit sounds of shallow fault scraping up to the surface.
Quoting aspectre:
aspectre "For those in the Virginia area who were wondering what the "weird noises" were:
Small quake rattles central Virginia, 82nd since last summer."
66 Articuno "The earthquakes occurred last night.
The posts were posted yesterday about the day before.
So it's not seismic related. I might be wrong though.
"

I was thinking more in terms of the series of 82 earthquakes since last summer.
And of pulling a shed down: tend to hear some creaks and groans before the building falls over.
Virginia is shot through and through with caves, caverns, and mines. Which would tend to amplify and transmit sounds of shallow fault scraping up to the surface.


The first thing I checked when I heard the noises was the USGS site, and there were no earthquakes in the last day.
Quoting kellnerp:
Whatever warming is happening seems to be affecting the oceans the most. This has to be direct radiative warming of the ocean, not transfer from atmosphere to ocean. Notice how rapidly the entire ocean heat content has increased. And it would appear that the heating of the ocean is driving the heating of the atmosphere.


Heat Content


CO2


Um...any planetary warming affects the oceans the most. The oceans are the largest heat sinks on the planet (high heat capacity). Land surfaces, on the other hand, are not heat sinks (low heat capacity). Therefore, any long term heating will end up affecting the oceans more than land in overall heat.

Your conclusion:

This has to be direct radiative warming of the ocean, not transfer from atmosphere to ocean.

Does not follow, and is contradicted by the NOAA page you link to. The NOAA page clearly states that solar output has not been increasing, therefore direct radiative heating is NOT responsible.

Logically, your conclusion is contradictory. Let's assume for the sake of argument that direct radiative heating was responsible. This would imply that, in the absence of increased solar output, that the Earth's atmosphere was more transparent to incoming IR radiation, allowing more heat energy to hit the ocean. If it were more transparent in the IR, then that would also imply that re-radiated/reflected IR radiation would also be more easily radiated back into space. In other words, global average temperatures would not be increasing as the increased IR transparency would allow any excess heat to be radiated off into space more easily.

The planet (and thus the oceans) isn't warming because of more incoming energy. It's warming because the atmosphere is preventing heat from escaping. Satellite measurements verify this by showing a decreasing IR signature from the planet (colder stratospheric temperatures, for example).
Quoting WxGeekVA:


The first thing I checked when I heard the noises was the USGS site, and there were no earthquakes in the last day.


And there were no planes overhead
Quoting RitaEvac:


Punishment by the elite, only way to get outta this, is for the whole global system to tank into the ground. Make the rich lose their investments and their a$$, little people like us have less, shall have less to lose. Then grab the pitch forks and torches and rule
God why make yourself sound so stupid? Link Watch this. Spreading the wealth does not work. You will make people afraid to be the best financially they can be. Think a little please.

Quoting RitaEvac:


Punishment by the elite, only way to get outta this, is for the whole global system to tank into the ground. Make the rich lose their investments and their a$$, little people like us have less, shall have less to lose. Then grab the pitch forks and torches and rule


I do not blame the ones with money and I do not envy their wealth. I blame market manipulation and speculation on the market. When oil gets too cheap, the oil producing countries just curtail production to create a false low supply. Speculation could be curtailed if the buyers were forced to take 20% delivery of what they buy. Eliminate the market manipulation and speculation and we would see a more even price level. This up and down and ring-around-the-rosey methodology is what keeps everyone jittery and the markets and job markets confused and edgy.
There is a poster on this site that I find intolerable for their personal off-topic beliefs which are constantly stated. I have repeatedly flagged the remarks and finally decided to Ignore this person. However, everytime I try to update my Ignore list, their name disappears off the list. Help, what am I doing wrong and how can I correct it!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And there were no planes overhead


Freeport, TX along the coast had similar incident but it was shaking like an earthquake, everybody felt it, but USGS said nothing was monitored

FREEPORT, TX (KTRK) -- We've gotten several calls into our newsroom over the past 24 hours about a mystery in the Freeport area. On Tuesday, a lot of people -- even the city manager -- felt the ground shake. So was it a rare earthquake?

"In 88 years, I've never even known of one in the area," Hickey said.

But one may very well have shaken Freeport and the surrounding area on Tuesday. At around 4:15 in the afternoon, the city manager felt something.

"All industry is safe, so you're thinking it's an earthquake; it makes you think it was. I never have been in an earthquake, but I know what the ground felt like," said Freeport City Manager Jeff Pyne.

The shaking lasted just a few moments, but enough to cause phones to ring throughout the area. The Freeport Fire Department checked with local plants to make sure there were incidents.

"We called all of our contacts to make sure everything was OK. The best guess is something happened, but nobody knows what," said Freeport Fire Chief Brian Davis.

Eyewitness News checked with the National Earthquake Information Center, which says it didn't record any seismic activity in the area. But that doesn't mean there wasn't an earthquake. It's gotten residents talking. And for 88-year-old Nat Hickey, it might finally be something he's never experienced.

"I'm not really aware of any... gee, any earthquake in this area would be real unusual to me," said Hickey.

Link
This is about 8 degrees above average here in Orlando.

Quoting Neapolitan:
28" of snow at Mt. Hood Meadows.

Ouch.


That's the lowest one, I didn't get to ski it in '92. Timberline was the highest one, where US ski team skis in summer - rem old milwaukee bikini skiing commercial? That part was closed then, only open below tree line. Can't rem the name of the one in the middle though.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
God why make yourself sound so stupid? Link Watch this. Spreading the wealth does not work. You will make people afraid to be the best financially they can be. Think a little please.



You need to listen to some better music.


I think you might enjoy this.
Jokes aside, the USSR anthem is the best national anthem ever made in human history. Communists/Stalin sure knew how to brainwash people through epic music.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
God why make yourself sound so stupid? Link Watch this. Spreading the wealth does not work. You will make people afraid to be the best financially they can be. Think a little please.



People don't need to be millonaires, sorry, that's what the problem is in this world, the sky is the limit and so on is BS, supposed to live within your means, not wanting a 5,0000 sq ft house. TRUST me, big things are coming, and my response earlier is what is to come
Quoting aspectre:
Congressional Republicans kill Keystone pipeline project
Wait. it was Obama that killed it. Obama rejected it to please the environmental groups till further research is done. Very misleading title.
Looking at the long range I just don't see any cold air coming to the SE US. Hell by February especially mid to late Feb I bet we are hitting 90 already like we were last year.
Quoting Guysgal:
There is a poster on this site that I find intolerable for their personal off-topic beliefs which are constantly stated. I have repeatedly flagged the remarks and finally decided to Ignore this person. However, everytime I try to update my Ignore list, their name disappears off the list. Help, what am I doing wrong and how can I correct it!


If it is Tebow you are trying to ignore, you must first add Brady to your allow list. ;-)
Quoting RitaEvac:


People don't need to be millonaires, sorry, that's what the problem is in this world, the sky is the limit and so on is BS, supposed to live within your means, not wanting a 5,0000 sq ft house. TRUST me, big things are coming, and my response earlier is what is to come
Lol, you just said living within your means? Well if you have the means do it! Also who are you to tell everyone how to live their lives? If I want to be rich I'm going to be rich and I will die before I let anyone stop me. Btw your a text book example of what Karl Marx called the "proletariat" who will rise up. Well it happened and look how many people it killed.
Quoting Neapolitan:
There's been a 110 mph wind gust at Otter Rock, Oregon. That, and 28" of snow at Mt. Hood Meadows.

Ouch.
gee i was watching weather channel yesterday, said in that area winds could top 125 mph along with heavy snows, gee if you live there please be careful, hail in that storm might be like bullets at 110-125 mph
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 07-20112012
22:00 PM RET January 18 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 07R (999 hPa) located at 13.9S 68.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 15.0S 66.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 64.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 18.1S 62.9E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 20.8S 61.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west southwestwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is located under the eastern edge of the small curved band.

Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 3 days then a southwards recurving motion. Within the next 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. Low level equatorward inflow remains rather good but indirect due to the intertropical convergence zone in the north.. Poleward inflow is expected to weaken within Thursday 19th in relationship with a weakening in the subtropical belt but should improve again after that. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system at the end of the period
Btw, im sorry I responded to an outlawed topic. Sometimes I just cant help myself.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol, you just said living within your means? Well if you have the means do it! Also who are you to tell everyone how to live their lives? If I want to be rich I'm going to be rich and I will die before I let anyone stop me. Btw your a text book example of what Karl Marx called the "proletariat" who will rise up. Well it happened and look how many people it killed.


Buckle up.....gonna get REAL interesting for folks like you
Not sure why they need one to the Gulf coast refineries, already have one to Wood River refinery and Patoka storage tanks. That one has already leaked from below standard Indian pipe they used (which had been protested by StL area steelworkers before installation). I guess if hurricane wrecked signicant amount of gulf production, but not the refineries, could supply them, but is it worth contaminating the sand hills or the Ogalla? Did hear NE trying to come up with a better route around the more sensitive areas though. Why not build a refinery in WY or ND and use existing network?
Quoting RitaEvac:


People don't need to be millonaires, sorry, that's what the problem is in this world, the sky is the limit and so on is BS, supposed to live within your means, not wanting a 5,0000 sq ft house. TRUST me, big things are coming, and my response earlier is what is to come


Your response earlier may be what is coming but, it will be through the collapse of the middle class. The middle class supports the top of the pyramid and therefore the top will also fall. Except they fall on top of the crumpled middle class.

I still do not hold any animosity towards those with "wealth". I do wonder why they strive to continue to make more money when having any more money would not do anything to increase their comfort level. Should you give Bill Gates $100,000,000, would it do anything to increase his comfort level? Emotionally, there may never be enough but, logically there is a point of no return.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol, you just said living within your means? Well if you have the means do it! Also who are you to tell everyone how to live their lives? If I want to be rich I'm going to be rich and I will die before I let anyone stop me. Btw your a text book example of what Karl Marx called the "proletariat" who will rise up. Well it happened and look how many people it killed.


An Indian once said, America has forgotten the instructions on how to live....
Quoting RitaEvac:


An Indian once said, America has forgotten the instructions on how to live....


+100
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Your response earlier may be what is coming but, it will be through the collapse of the middle class. The middle class supports the top of the pyramid and therefore the top will also fall. Except they fall on top of the crumpled middle class.

I still do not hold any animosity towards those with "wealth". I do wonder why they strive to continue to make more money when having any more money would not do anything to increase their comfort level. Should you give Bill Gates $100,000,000, would it do anything to increase his comfort level? Emotionally, there may never be enough but, logically there is a point of no return.


Exactly what I'm trying to say, how much more do those folks need to meet comfort level
89 hydrus "I have a question for anyone that feels like answering..There have been reports of strange sounds all over the globe, why are the main news channels talking about these events?"

There's unexplained groans and rumblings going on all the time. But what with it bein' 2012 and all, there's gotta be some Signs of the End of Times.
Since there ain't nothin' particularly Omenous goin' on, the media hasta hype regular ol' strange sounds as if they hold Portent... as a service to the public. I mean how would you feel if the Apocalypse swung past and ya missed it entirely? Ain't like you could catch another one anytime soon.
Not to mention the hurt feelings. Imagine bein' one of the Four Horsemen, and all of your ingenious plans and hard work bein' wasted on folks who ain't payin' any attention. Probably 'd make me wanna give up on the gig altogether.
Has been quite warm this winter here in southern Florida.
Quoting RitaEvac:


An Indian once said, America has forgotten the instructions on how to live....
Yes, because an Indian is obviously all knowing. Btw the man is referencing how incredibly rich people seem to always strive for more in America. Personally I do not understand this myself but taking away their money to share it to people who have not worked to earn it? Sure there are people that work as harder than them but how are you going to decide that?
Quoting RitaEvac:


Exactly what I'm trying to say, how much more do those folks need to meet comfort level
But is it better to take all they have? You act as if all rich people are evil.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Lol, you just said living within your means? Well if you have the means do it! Also who are you to tell everyone how to live their lives? If I want to be rich I'm going to be rich and I will die before I let anyone stop me. Btw your a text book example of what Karl Marx called the "proletariat" who will rise up. Well it happened and look how many people it killed.


It's already done begun....son....

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/rise-praetorian- class
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes, because an Indian is obviously all knowing. Btw the man is referencing how incredibly rich people seem to always strive for more in America. Personally I do not understand this myself but taking away their money to share it to people who have not worked to earn it? Sure there are people that work as harder than them but how are you going to decide that?


Don't take away people's money, or make them share it, not reasonable, only thing the rich man has done, is caused his class to be extinct in the long run, when the RISE up begins
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
But is it better to take all they have? You act as if all rich people are evil.


No, they're not. But it will create war
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes, because an Indian is obviously all knowing. Btw the man is referencing how incredibly rich people seem to always strive for more in America. Personally I do not understand this myself but taking away their money to share it to people who have not worked to earn it? Sure there are people that work as harder than them but how are you going to decide that?


Using this philosophy, those that work the hardest should reap the greatest wealth. Yet, we still have this inequality.
Doppler radar failed miserably in rain estimation today, I supposedly received a trace of rain but I got 0.79. That's weird...

Oh well, original forecast was only supposed to be a 20% chance of an outside shower, and a solid line of showers and storms ended up being the result, its been dry and I love rain so I ain't complaining :)
How about take it away, for a little while, to pay down the debt their lobbyists and institutions helped run up, repair and upgrade infrastructure, then, with hopefully, better spending limits in place, return them to previous rates. I know, a pipe dream, but...
Rita, Re: Post #97. I didn't put you on the "Iggy" for that, but have definitely lost some respect for you.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Rita, Re: Post #97. I didn't put you on the "Iggy" for that, but have definitely lost some respect for you.


Last sentence was sarcasm.....but might be what's coming down the pike as long as this turmoil continues on down the road
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Using this philosophy, those that work the hardest should reap the greatest wealth. Yet, we still have this inequality.
Yes but they choose to work hardest in the field they work. They could always choose to enter any other field and with work ethic they will achieve the same. Everyone in America can achieve whatever they want, yes its true that its much harder for some than others but you can still overcome those challenges.
Quoting hydrus:
I have a question for anyone that feels like answering..There have been reports of strange sounds all over the globe, why are the main news channels talking about these events?

Slow news day.
Quoting RitaEvac:


But then again, if economy tanks, it wont matter people wont be doing anything, making prices fall

Careful, doing a Mr. Kimball act. : )

My favorite green acres dude.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes but they choose to work hardest in the field they work. They could always choose to enter any other field and with work ethic they will achieve the same. Everyone in America can achieve whatever they want, yes its true that its much harder for some than others but you can still overcome those challenges.


Yea, but what's happening is, look at professional athletes, singers, movie stars, Kardashians, Jersey Shore, actresses, These people do nothing for the world and make millions, yet engineers, computer techs, NASA, NHC, make 6 digits if that? everybody ought to be RISING up, and not take this anymore
Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, but what's happening is, look at professional athletes, singers, movie stars, Kardashians, Jersey Shore, actresses, These people do nothing for the world and make millions, yet engineers, computer techs, NASA, NHC, make 6 digits if that? everybody ought to be RISING up, and not take this anymore
Well if people stopped watching TV and going to movies they would be worth nothing. So I challenge you to end all entertainment. You get paid what your worth.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wait. it was Obama that killed it. Obama rejected it to please the environmental groups till further research is done. Very misleading title.

No. Congressional Republicans overplayed their hand by trying to force the President to bow to Big Oil pressure via an arbitrary deadline. IOW, they thought they held better cards than they did, and Obama called their bluff.

It worked. This time. But it'll be back. We basically have more time to try convincing the President not to cave (again) to the pro-polluters.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


And there were no planes overhead

Or weedeaters revving up. Or someone just blowing into a microphone.
We all need to stop the political talk before were all banned.
I'm done, my last quote said it all....
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Rita, Re: Post #97. I didn't put you on the "Iggy" for that, but have definitely lost some respect for you.


I'm a realist and I do believe it's possible, but let's not stoke those fires. But just like extreme weather, there're a lot of people who think they'd love to see it until it arrives on their doorstep.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Wait. it was Obama that killed it. Obama rejected it to please the environmental groups till further research is done. Very misleading title.

It will "rise from the grave" eventually, so just saying it was killed is overstatement.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes but they choose to work hardest in the field they work. They could always choose to enter any other field and with work ethic they will achieve the same. Everyone in America can achieve whatever they want, yes its true that its much harder for some than others but you can still overcome those challenges.


That is a nice way to view things. Obviously you have not paid attention as to how the deck is being stacked and by who.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
We all need to stop the political talk before were all banned.


I was on an economics topics. I suppose I should also say how weather has proven a detriment to local economies.
Quoting Guysgal:
There is a poster on this site that I find intolerable for their personal off-topic beliefs which are constantly stated. I have repeatedly flagged the remarks and finally decided to Ignore this person. However, everytime I try to update my Ignore list, their name disappears off the list. Help, what am I doing wrong and how can I correct it!


Whenever i add somebody to my ignore list, the first time i hit OK it dissappears but the 2nd time it stays.
Seems like such a long time ago since we had anything major in the tropics...

Quoting RitaEvac:


No, they're not. But it will create war


Some people get mixed up with money. Like the statement "The root of evil is money" well...no. money is fine, need money to buy food and clothes and all that. to rephrase that statement, "The root to evil is THE LOVE OF money" SOund better?

Quoting yqt1001:
Seems like such a long time ago since we had anything major in the tropics...



Very bland lately, lol. I could use a kenneth right now!
You know I am not a snow lover, I just want to see it falling...but, looking at the forecast febuary temperatures from CPC, I just want a winter! something different from the mid-6 months of the previous year:D



Black Hole Picture, Never Before Possible, To Be Planned At University Of Arizona Conference

At the center of our galaxy, an enormous black hole has worked invisibly for billions of years, and now scientists are gearing up to snap its picture.

A conference will be held to discuss the never-before-attempted photographic gambit on January 18 at the University of Arizona (UA). There scientists will map out an interstellar imaging project that astronomers of previous decades never could have imagined.

Why unimaginable? According to the statement,

Even though the black hole suspected to sit at the center of our galaxy is a supermassive one at 4 million times the mass of the sun, it is tiny to the eyes of astronomers. Smaller than Mercury's orbit around the sun, yet almost 26,000 light years away, it appears about the same size as a grapefruit on the moon.

Getting the picture will be a herculean task. The team will connect 50 telescopes of all sizes, from Hawaii to the South Pole, and use them as components of a single, enormous virtual telescope. The Event Horizon Telescope, as the project is called, will bring scientists "as close to the edge of black hole as we will ever come," according to the telescope's website. "In essence," said Sheperd Doeleman, principal investigator of the project, "we are making a virtual telescope with a mirror that is as big as the Earth."

Dimitrios Psaltis, co-organizer of the conference and associate professor of astrophysics at UA's Steward Observatory, spoke of the project in ambitious terms. "We need the entire world to come together to build this instrument because it is as big as the planet," he said. "People are coming from all over the world because they have to work on it."

And for good reason: the black hole image will verify or disprove a part of Albert Einstein's theory of general relativity. General relativity predicts that the swirl of dust and gases around a black hole which is all the telescope will be able to see, since the hole itself is, of course, black should form a perfect circle. If it looks even slightly distorted, we may have to rethink parts of Einstein's important theory.

One to really see..

Video News Release 25: Unprecedented 16-year long study tracks stars orbiting Milky Way black hole (eso0846b)


Where is thy snow?.Thy hasn't no snow this winter?.Ha what a humorous joke.Seattle hast more?.SERIOUSLY?.I'm ashamed...
Quoting RitaEvac:
From a post on another site


What is coming isn't a recession. It's a depression. We are already in it, Just take a look at Food Stamps participation and the REAL unemployment rate (21-22%) and you'll see it's true.

They never solved anything back in 08-09. They just bailed out the "too big too fail" and kept the same old song going. Not a single regulation on the derivatives market was passed, not a single change in US debt policy was made, and the same criminals that created the 2008 crisis are still the ones in charge of the world's financial system.

Since then the stock market has recovered, yes. Why? Because of near zero interest rates. Remember what happened back in 03 when interest rates were low, they inflated the housing bubble. What's happening now? They are inflating another bubble! This is the bubble of all bubbles, it's a worldwide bubble based on how the "recovery" well doing. Just look at yesterday's market report to have the proof. Markets all around the world IGNORED the Eurozone downgrades (which is pretty big deal) and felt back on reports coming from China (who is known for manipulating it's economic data for a long time).

US and Europe debt problems are real, still investors prefer to ignore them. As it is going right now, we're heading straight into a wall. Once the interests rates will go up again (they can't remain low forever.), interest payments on these countries debt will skyrocket untill these countries will not be able to pay back their loans, and they will just default. This is what's currently happening in Greece and Iceland. This is what's coming for the US and the rest of the Eurozone. Who bails the US out when it defaults on it's 15 TRILLION dollars debt?

What we are witnessing is the possible complete collapse of our financial system. It has generated so much debt over the years that it cannot function right anymore. If major reforms aren't brought up for the US, Europe, and the "too big to fail", well everything will just shut down.

You cannot put gas in a broken engine and expect it to run right forever. One day the engine will break beyond repair and the car won't work anymore. What we're seeing right now is faith in a broken engine.

Get out of debt ASAP. As soon 10 yr bonds will be down enough, they will be looking at interest rates raises, if you have money invested into the market, this will be the right moment to sell off.

Buy silver, canned food, seeds and ammo
I love the optimism of this post....
Quoting BahaHurican:
I love the optimism of this post....


I agree with that post, and it scares me a little to think about what will happen when the big meltdown really does happen. Will there be chaos and collapsing governments? Will people wake up and depose the morons in the Senate and House? Will the government give itself extraordinary and illegal powers to stay in charge? This may keep me up at night....
Guys I don't support that PIP and Sopa thing at all..it's rather retared.We'll be like China if congress passes that bill.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I love the optimism of this post....


As a cautious optimist, I can relate to the last line of that post. It could also serve you well after a major natural disaster.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I agree with that post, and it scares me a little to think about what will happen when the big meltdown really does happen. Will there be chaos and collapsing governments? Will people wake up and depose the morons in the Senate and House? Will the government give itself extraordinary and illegal powers to stay in charge? This may keep me up at night....
Hey did you hear those winds last night???.They were wicked mad.It woke me up at 2:00 in the morning.I thought a train had crashed or something.Nope.It was just those winds.It sounded like a tropical storm was passing by.I recorded some of it with my phone.(Yes I went outside 2:15 in the morning to go a record those crazy winds).
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey did you hear those winds last night???.They were wicked mad.It woke me up at 2:00 in the morning.I thought a train had crashed or something.Nope.It was just those winds.It sounded like a tropical storm was passing by.I recorded some of it with my phone.(Yes I went outside 2:15 in the morning to go a record those crazy winds).


They were a little crazy. Some conspiracy theorists suggest they were the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse going into town to warn the Senators to hide in their money vault.. I MEAN panic room.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


They were a little crazy. Some conspiracy theorists suggest they were the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse going into town to warn the Senators to hide in their money vault.. I MEAN panic room.
LOL.They came in feirce.Like old man winter was back for revenge or something saying "spring you won't be making that early of a return on my watch".If only we had some snow to go with those winds.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Guys I don't support that PIP and Sopa thing at all..it's rather retared.We'll be like China if congress passes that bill.

and that is the reason Wikipedia is down today. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and that is the reason Wikipedia is down today. :)
I know that sucks.I tried to do more research to see if warm winters across the U.S lead to the U.S getting hit several times with tropical cyclones.And Boom there it was that ugly gray image popped up.It appears to be working now however.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I know that sucks.I tried to do more research to see if warm winters across the U.S lead to the U.S getting hit several times with tropical cyclones.And Boom there it was that ugly gray image popped up.It appears to be working now however.


Just add ?banner=none to the end of the URL, or go to another language.
Quoting yqt1001:


Just add ?banner=none to the end of the URL, or go to another language.

Or just simply press escape before the banner can load :)

Of course, that doesn't do us any good considering we need to EDIT and not VIEW. :P
Here's a gif of the atmospheric river getting revved up. Masters gives a snapshot of it up above.

Note that all that water vapor represents heat. That's what some anonymous popular science writer imagined that hurricanes do for the planet. These rivers flow in obscurity.
Quoting yqt1001:


Just add ?banner=none to the end of the URL, or go to another language.
It was working for me in English and for about 10 minutes.Someone wasn't doing their job :).
The Atlantic is showing some river action.

Riding the waves in the west Pacific.

Quoting bappit:

Slow news day.
Man, I am sorry. That post is a type o..I was asking why were the news channels NOT talking about the strange sound events around the globe..I wish I saw that mistake earlier.


NASA image and documented video provide first glimpse of new island formed in the Red Sea
Posted on January 18, 2012
January 18, 2012 – RED SEA – NASA has released two stunning images of the world’s newest, and as yet unnamed, island. Located about 60 miles from the coast of Yemen the new island began forming by volcanic activity in mid-December 2011. After nearly a month long eruption NASA believes that the volcano has now stopped: creating this peanut shaped island. The satellite images show the new island among neighboring islands and clearly show the cinder cone at the island’s centre. The new island is only a few meters from Rugged Island and Haycock Island in the Red Sea and now forms the 11th island in the Zubair Islands group located between Yemen and Eritrea. It measures 530 by 710 meters (1,700 by 2,300 feet) across and has surprised many scientists who didn’t expect the eruption from the Red Sea volcano to form any long lasting land mass. Eruptions such as this usually form short lived islands but NASA expects that this one will remain a permanent feature on the map. Below, the eruption in the Red Sea is captured on video. The scale of the eruption and how little press attention it received is both equally surprising. –Sociable

Going global. Looks like something rotating in the central Indian Ocean as well as going inland west of Madagascar.

Quoting hydrus:
Man, I am sorry. That post is a type o..I was asking why were the news channels NOT talking about the strange sound events around the globe..I wish I saw that mistake earlier.

lol -- I don't follow the mass media much except public radio (includes BBC) so I'm oblivious.
Currently Active Tropical Cyclones


Southern Hemisphere

SH942012 - INVEST




SH952012 - INVEST

AmyRochelleColon come out from hiding >.>....
Quoting bappit:

lol -- I don't follow the mass media much except public radio (includes BBC) so I'm oblivious.
How can something like weird noises that 10,s of millions of people are hearing not fricken breaking news.?..I saw and heard the video from Costa Rica..Very, very strange.
Wow, probably the deepest convection I have ever seen.



What is that, like -100C?
Quoting yqt1001:
Wow, probably the deepest convection I have ever seen.



What is that, like -100C?

Hmm...more like -90/-95C me thinks.
Quoting hydrus:
How can something like weird noises that 10,s of millions of people are hearing not fricken breaking news.?..I saw and heard the video from Costa Rica..Very, very strange.
I've been hearing rumbling noises to around here.And so has my fellow Virginian WXGeekVA.What's going on?.Is a strong volcano about to blow?
north florida actually got some rain today! hallelujah!
Time to bailout the bailouter? IMF seeks $600 billion in new funding to cope with crisis
Posted on January 18, 2012

January 18, 2012 – EUROPE – The International Monetary Fund is seeking to boost its war chest by $600 billion to help countries reeling from the euro zone debt crisis, but some nations insist Europe must first do more to support its ailing members, international financial sources said on Wednesday. Group of 20 officials will discuss increasing IMF resources at a meeting in Mexico City on Thursday and Friday, the first under Mexico’s 2012 presidency of the group of developed and emerging economies. The IMF said it will need $500 billion to lend to member countries in need and IMF sources who were present at an IMF board meeting on the issue on Tuesday told Reuters that another $100 billion is needed as a “protection buffer.” The IMF also estimated there would be a $1 trillion global financing gap over the next two years if global economic conditions worsened considerably, the sources added. On foreign exchange markets, the reports of plans for increased IMF lending capacity helped boost the euro. Euro zone nations have already promised to inject an extra 150 billion euros ($200 billion) into the IMF, which is included in the total estimate. G20 officials in Mexico for the meeting of deputy finance ministers and central bank officials said there was still resistance in some quarters to increase funding. “Many countries want the Europeans to move ahead with tougher and clearer measures, which at this moment translates to more resources to its stability fund,” said a senior Brazilian government source attending the meeting. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney said it was not clear European governments had done everything necessary to make sure they could fund themselves at sustainable interest rates over the next few years. “If it makes sense to enhance the resources of the IMF the principal focus, it would seem, should be on dealing with fallout of the European crisis for innocent bystanders,” he told a news briefing in Ottawa. The IMF currently has a lending capacity of about $380 billion and estimates demand could be about $ 1 trillion in the medium-term.”Based on staff’s estimate of global potential financing needs of about $1 trillion in the coming years, the fund would aim to raise up to $500 billion in additional lending resources. This total includes the recent European commitment of about $200 billion in increased fund resources,” an IMF spokesman said. “At this preliminary stage, we are exploring options on funding and will have no further comment until the necessary consultations,’ he added. -Reuters
Quoting marsHen:
north florida actually got some rain today! hallelujah!
You can take our rain if ya won't.We don't need any.The ground is very saturated here.This also why snow would be good so that it could melt slowly.More rain is in the forecast for us though.
Quoting yqt1001:
Wow, probably the deepest convection I have ever seen.



What is that, like -100C?


You will probably never see an IR temperature colder than about -90C because the air doesn't get colder than that in the upper troposphere. Any higher than that cold level, and the IR sensor will not be a good indication of how high the cloud tops are.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Guys I don't support that PIP and Sopa thing at all..it's rather retared.We'll be like China if congress passes that bill.


I made my channel on youtube black. i even removed my hurricane profile. Link
Here's another beautiful ISS time-lapse:



From the description: "This video was taken by the crew of Expedition 30 on board the International Space Station. The sequence of shots was taken December 29, 2011 from 20:55:05 to 21:14:09 GMT, on a pass from over central Africa, near southeast Niger, to the South Indian Ocean, southeast of Madagascar. The complete pass is over southern Africa to the ocean, focusing on the lightning flashes from local storms and the Milky Way rising over the horizon. The Milky Way can be spotted as a hazy band of white light at the beginning of the video. The pass continues southeast toward the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. The Lovejoy Comet can be seen very faintly near the Milky Way. The pass ends as the sun is rising over the dark ocean."
67 RitaEvac [quoting from a post on another site] "...Buy silver, canned food, seeds and ammo."

Why canned food? Fresh werewolves are nutritious and delicious once lightly grilled.
Quoting SPLbeater:


I made my channel on youtube black. i even removed my hurricane profile. Link


You a railfan?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's another beautiful ISS time-lapse:



From the description: "This video was taken by the crew of Expedition 30 on board the International Space Station. The sequence of shots was taken December 29, 2011 from 20:55:05 to 21:14:09 GMT, on a pass from over central Africa, near southeast Niger, to the South Indian Ocean, southeast of Madagascar. The complete pass is over southern Africa to the ocean, focusing on the lightning flashes from local storms and the Milky Way rising over the horizon. The Milky Way can be spotted as a hazy band of white light at the beginning of the video. The pass continues southeast toward the Mozambique Channel and Madagascar. The Lovejoy Comet can be seen very faintly near the Milky Way. The pass ends as the sun is rising over the dark ocean."


I'd love to spend a couple of orbits up there.
Quoting yqt1001:


You a railfan?


well, they way cooler in person lol. i dont really have anything exciting to upload at this time, so thats what i got:)
Quoting sunlinepr:


Thats an OLD animation
Quoting SPLbeater:


I made my channel on youtube black. i even removed my hurricane profile. Link
I signed a petition to stop congress in there progress.I don't want them involved in internet.Next think you know the only websites that will be for free are kid friendly ones.And I do occasinally like to go off and do adult things.I shouldn't have to pay for it/it being censord.
Quoting Guysgal:
There is a poster on this site that I find intolerable for their personal off-topic beliefs which are constantly stated. I have repeatedly flagged the remarks and finally decided to Ignore this person. However, everytime I try to update my Ignore list, their name disappears off the list. Help, what am I doing wrong and how can I correct it!


So what I do is hit ignore, then update. This will usually make the name vanish. However if you then add the name again (typing it or pasting it into the field) and hit update, it sticks.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I signed a petition to stop congress in there progress.I don't want them involved in internet.Next think you know the only websites that will be for free are kid friendly ones.And I do occasinally like to go off and do adult things.I shouldn't have to pay for it/it being censord.


Thats why my channel is all ugly n stuff. You would think that Youtube would send something to its 150 milllion users about protesting.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Thats why my channel is all ugly n stuff. You would think that Youtube would send something to its 150 milllion users about protesting.
Wikipedia is ugly to.My research has been temporally interupted.I hope it works tomorrow.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wikipedia is ugly to.My research has been temporally interupted.I hope it works tomorrow.


I'm on Wiki right now. When you get to the main page, refresh the page, then press the Esc key on your keyboard.
202. Wyote
Quoting Patrap:

How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans. These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements.

These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change. A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


No, what we are seeing isn't normal.That's been pretty well established. Isotope analysis shows that the additional carbon going into the atmosphere is from fossil fuels. The level of CO2 in the atmosphere hasn't been this high since the Mesozoic. That alone should be cause for concern. However, there is a huge amount of additional data and research demonstrating that this warming is not natural.

The Earth's surface does not spontaneously warm up or cool off on a global scale without something to drive that change. Drivers can be large volcanic eruptions, positive feedback thresholds, meteor impacts, etc. . But whatever the scenario, something triggered the change.

The Earth does not produce a significant amount of surface heat. Without the atmosphere to trap heat, the Earth's global average temperature would be below freezing. This is known as the greenhouse effect and was first studied in the late 19th century.

Remove all the complexity from the situation and look at it from a logical standpoint. The planet has warmed significantly. In order to increase planetary temperature, there either has to be a planetary change that increases the net heat trapped by the planet, or the sun has to put out more energy (or a mixture of both). The laws of physics are pretty clear on this. Energy doesn't come out of nowhere, especially energy of the magnitude require to significantly heat a planet.

The most obvious source for additional heating would be the sun. However, solar output has not increased in any significant fashion over the past 100 years, and certainly not over the past 50 years where even more accurate records track the sun. In fact we were in a relative lull recently and temperatures still remained warm.

With sun ruled out, we have to look at planetary changes to account for the heating. Starting from what we know, we can eliminate several possible factors. We know the heating has been very recent (past 100 years or so). We know it has happened rapidly. This narrows the possible causes down to planetary changes that have happened within the recent past.

Orbital and axial variations are ruled out (if any such changes had happened in the pat 100 years, you would certainly notice it). There hasn't been any sudden increase in geothermal releases (again, this is something that would be quite obvious).

So what has changed significantly on the planet in the past 100 years that could possibly trap additional heat on a planetary scale? Well, since the beginning of the industrial age human activities have added a significant amount of various greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Given that these greenhouse gases are known for there ability to trap heat, the logical conclusion is that the recent rapid warming has been triggered by us.

If you have another possible mechanism whereby the planet's recent rapid warming can happen without increased solar output, orbital or axial variations, or the increased effect of greenhouse gases from human activity, then I would be most interested to hear it.


Xyrus and Ptrap: thanks for taking the time to post!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I'm on Wiki right now. When you get to the main page, refresh the page, then press the Esc key on your keyboard.

It'll work tomorrow (in less than 3.5 hours, actually). But if you really need to get in now, just do the following:

1) Go to Google;
2) Enter your search subject;
3) Look for the Wikipedia entry; it's usually within the first five or six returns;
4) Mouse over it, and you'll see a a pair of arrows appear to the right of the entry;
5) Move your mouse over those arrows, and you'll see a miniature version of the Wikipedia page;
6) Click on the 'Cached' link above that miniature.

(By the way, you can do this with almost any page, at almost any time.)
..
Who's in charge here?!
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!


Why?

Edit:
Wow 313 comments for me! I feel quite 8-Miley
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!

Jeff Bastardi
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yes but they choose to work hardest in the field they work. They could always choose to enter any other field and with work ethic they will achieve the same. Everyone in America can achieve whatever they want, yes its true that its much harder for some than others but you can still overcome those challenges.


That hasn't been true for at least the past several decades. There are very few fields where you will ever get rich working in, and even then it takes a mixture of luck and ruthlessness to get there.

Unless you were born into a rich family already. In that case all the doors are already open for you.

That's not to say hard work on't get you anywhere. You can make a comfortable life based on hard work. But it won't make you a millionaire. Any such claim is simply not backed by the statistics. What the statistics do say is that if you weren't born into a rich family, then your chances of becoming rich are pretty small.

In other words, upwards mobility is, for the most part, a myth. Any chart on income growth and wealth distribution in this country paint a pretty clear picture of what's happening. The only thing moving upwards is wealth for the upper classes. Everyone else is stagnating or losing wealth, and I highly doubt that is because of a sudden pandemic of laziness striking the country.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
PERTURBATION TROPICALE 08-20112012
4:00 AM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 08R (1001 hPa) located at 17.7S 41.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.1S 40.6E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.4S 39.4E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.5S 37.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 18.9S 38.1E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Convection has built near the center during the last hours. 1834 PM UTC ASCAT swath shows now maximum winds at about 20-25 knots within a well defined clockwise circulation.

Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) and also avno are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 48 to 60 hours and then a southeastwards track. Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the Both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperatures, only the vicinity of the coast during the first 48 hours may limitate the rate of intensification.
Another indication (as if any were needed) of just how mild this winter has been:

The Twin Cities Set to Break a Record for the Latest Below Zero Temperature

"The likelihood of witnessing a below zero temperature across southern Minnesota and west central Wisconsin during any given winter is very good indeed. There has NEVER been a winter where temperatures failed to drop below zero.

In the Twin Cities, the long term average for the first below zero reading is December 9th. The least number of below zero days was 2, back in the winter of 2001-2002. January 18th is the latest date on record during the winter season that the Twin Cities has experienced its first below zero temperature (set back in 1889 and 2002).

The temperature Wednesday morning (January 18th) failed to drop below zero, and is expected to remain above zero for the rest of the day, so this record has been tied. The "latest sub-zero temperature" record is expected to be broken tomorrow (January 19th) when temperatures drop below zero at the Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport early Thursday morning. "


Fortunately (or unfortunately, depending on your POV) temperatures will be back to nicely-above normal by next week.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 07-20112012
4:00 AM RET January 19 2012
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 07R (998 hPa) located at 14.4S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 11 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
30 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 15.8S 65.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 16.8S 64.7E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
48 HRS: 19.2S 63.5E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 23.0S 62.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

The low is on the northern edge of the high level ridge and in relationship with its own west southwestwards motion, is only slightly constrained by the moderate easterly vertical wind shear existing over the area. Low level vortex is located under a the small central dense overcast

Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. Within the next 48 to 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system at the end of the period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on Tropical Depression 07R will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


As a cautious optimist, I can relate to the last line of that post. It could also serve you well after a major natural disaster.


Buying silver and gold in preparation for a world economic collapse is sort of like buying insurance against being trappled to death by a camel on the moon.
Quoting sunlinepr:

Thank you. That was beautiful. :)
Part of a class lecture on:
Meteo 1020 – Lecture 2
The Radiation Balance of the Atmosphere

http://meteo04.chpc.utah.edu/class/1020/Lecture2. 201009.pdf
Link

I thought you weather geeks might like this. I expect Xyrus2000 will find this a bit watered down, given some of his posts, but for the rest of you.......

Duckduckgo.com is another good search tool also. I just discovered it. Not as "main stream" as Google. The guy who runs it also claims he does not keep, or track your searches.
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!


thought you were?
I'm a tad tardy as the Door was stuck..

Did I miss anything?
Quoting sunlinepr:


What is the date on this? IT is cool.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Buying silver and gold in preparation for a world economic collapse is sort of like buying insurance against being trappled to death by a camel on the moon.


...I know a Gecko that may cover dat..


..why we do mate, I think,

first Java and Wiki is down so I best tele the Main..









Quoting Xyrus2000:


Buying silver and gold in preparation for a world economic collapse is sort of like buying insurance against being trappled to death by a camel on the moon.
You gotta figure out what folks will need so you can trade for what you need.. can't eat or drink gold or silver.. can't hunt with it, can't see in the dark with it..etc.. if you have a box of gold and someone with a gun comes to visit guess what??? They now have a gun and a box of gold!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Jeff Bastardi


I think I sprained a retina and some of my Cerebral Cortex with that Twisted Mutant Image..

Thanx.
Tropical Cyclone 07S is here!
Can some one provide the energy (watts/sq meter, or any measure, I can convert) in IR spectrum between 1 and 10 microns that hits the Midwest (surface, not top of atmosphere) on a clear day in July?

A graph would be best.

My searching is not working. I found the total energy in the full spectrum, but I need the 1 to 10 micron range of the spectrum.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Tropical Cyclone 07S is here!

It's been here silly.

I'm scared to see what I will wake up to in the morning.



Quoting SPLbeater:
Tropical Cyclone 07S is here!




Image from Réunion Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (METEO FRANCE)©
Comparisons!

07S 12 hours ago:



07S now:

Link

higher forecast intensity than RSMC Mauritius by a lot
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Link

higher forecast intensity than RSMC Mauritius by a lot


"UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS" Could be a fun day tomorrow.
Quoting 1911maker:
Can some one provide the energy (watts/sq meter, or any measure, I can convert) in IR spectrum between 1 and 10 microns that hits the Midwest (surface, not top of atmosphere) on a clear day in July?

A graph would be best.

My searching is not working. I found the total energy in the full spectrum, but I need the 1 to 10 micron range of the spectrum.
check Carnegie Mellon I think I may have found something there for you
Japan tsunami death toll at 19,300 10 months on

Agence France-Presse January 10, 2012

Houses are swept by water following a tsunami and earthquake in Natori City in northeastern Japan March 11, 2011. A massive 8.9 magnitude quake hit northeast Japan, causing many injuries, fires and a ten-metre (33-ft) tsunami along parts of the country's coastline.

Houses are swept by water following a tsunami and earthquake in Natori City in northeastern Japan March 11, 2011. A massive 8.9 magnitude quake hit northeast Japan, causing many injuries, fires and a ten-metre (33-ft) tsunami along parts of the country's coastline.
Photograph by: KYODO, Reuters

TOKYO — Ten months after a massive tsunami crashed into Japan following a huge undersea earthquake, police figures show a total of 19,294 people are believed to have died.

Across the disaster zone, 15,844 people have been confirmed dead since the March 11 disaster, the national police agency said in a tally released Tuesday.

In addition, the whereabouts of 3,450 people are yet to be confirmed, the police said, as the hunt for bodies — many of which are believed to have been washed out to sea — continues.

As well as laying waste to vast stretches of coastline in Japan's northeast, wiping out towns and destroying communities, the tsunami knocked out cooling systems at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

Reactors were sent into meltdown and radioactive materials leaked into the air, soil and the sea in the world's worst nuclear accident in a quarter of a century.

Read more: http://www.theprovince.com/news/Japan+tsunami+deat h+toll+months/5976524/story.html#ixzz1jsAzERxg
Quoting yqt1001:


"UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS" Could be a fun day tomorrow.


ya. Tropical Cyclone 08S does not look like fun either.. forecast to become a hurricane close to land.
Quoting nymore:
check Carnegie Mellon I think I may have found something there for you


I did not find what I want so far but this was cool:
http://www.cmu.edu/iwess/workshops/IWESS_Solar_Oc t06.pdfLink

thanks for the responce
Raw Dvorak estimates for 07S are at T 3.5:



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 19 JAN 2012 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 14:40:09 S Lon : 67:13:59 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1001.8mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 3.5

Center Temp : -81.9C Cloud Region Temp : -81.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Seems to be getting its act together nicely.

Link
The sun is coming up on 07S:



Nice banding.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:




Image from Réunion Tropical Cyclone Warning Center (METEO FRANCE)©



JTWC and Wunderground didnt count it in until an hour ago or so
Anybody seen the movie Anacondas; Hunt For The Blood Orchid ? :D just finished it
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The planet (and thus the oceans) isn't warming because of more incoming energy. It's warming because the atmosphere is preventing heat from escaping. Satellite measurements verify this by showing a decreasing IR signature from the planet (colder stratospheric temperatures, for example).


Well technically it is due to more incoming energy - the energy imbalance is from greenhouse gases absorbing and re-emitting longwave radiation. It's not more incoming energy relative to the entire earth system, but it is more incoming energy relative to the earth's surface, where warming must occur due to this imbalance.

"Trapping heat" as in the greenhouse metaphor is a nice way to describe it for the public or those not heavy into the science disciplines, but it's not exactly an accurate way to describe the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Quoting presslord:
Who's in charge here?!


Some person from the Carolinas.
Great TRMM pass through the COC of 07S..click pic for quicktime movie.
City officials say 480 people were flooded out of their homes in Mozambique's capital after a tropical depression brought torrential rain and high winds. City officials said the homeless were being sheltered Wednesday in schools, churches and even sports fields. Emergency officials, meanwhile, said tropical depression Dando had now dissipated after two days of destroying homes, downing power lines and causing other damage in Maputo and other southern areas. No deaths were reported. In the southern Inhambane province, officials said roofs were blown off 71 classrooms, seven teachers' homes and two offices at a school. In neighboring Gaza province, 40 small homes were swept away and 1,000 goats were killed.
At least 313 indigenous communities are mostly affected by lack of food caused by the drought which has affected Paraguay since the end of November, for this reason President Fernando Lugo signed a decree yesterday which declares food emergency for 90 days. About 110,000 natives, belonging to twenty ethnic groups living in poverty in Eastern and Western regions of this Latin American country are those mainly affected by the gravity of the situation. The scarcity of rainfall has also caused a series of fires that have destroyed acres of pasture, thereby reducing food for animals. What also raises concern is the lack of water for domestic use, which may cause the spread of diseases related to the use of polluted water. The decree orders state to take all necessary administrative and financial measures to provide an immediate response to problems related to food production. Drought affects mainly the cultivation of soy, the main economic source of Paraguay, of cotton, corn, sesame and peanuts. Commercial shipping is also impossible due to low water levels in rivers.
It is 12:32 AM here in NC...and I am wearing sunglasses. lol
PHOBOS-GRUNT vs. US RADAR: Sources within the Russian Space Agency have suggested to newspapers that a US radar on the Marshall Islands might have accidentally disabled Phobos-Grunt. The mishap could have occured, they say, while the radar was using megawatt pulses to track near-Earth asteroid 2005 YU55 on the same night the Mars probe was launched. According to an analysis by satellite tracking expert Ted Molczan, however, "the asteroid was below Kwajalein's horizon during both of Phobos-Grunt's passes" over the radar facility. An errant "zap" seems unlikely. Besides, says NASA, they weren't using the radar anyway.
Minneapolis did not set a record for the latest first zero reading in the winter after all. 0 degrees at 11 p.m. there.

January 18th record is tied but still stands.
Hello.

Quoting Grothar:
Hello.



evenin grothar
http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/01/27/nasa-climate-ch ief-labors-targets-a-recipe-for-disaster/
Hey Grother~ That came through here pretty dry. Just a trace of rain. Looked like virga, radar had far more rain over me than was falling. Had a high of 81ºF.
Quoting Skyepony:
Hey Grother~ That came through here pretty dry. Just a trace of rain. Looked like virga, radar had far more rain over me than was falling. Had a high of 81ºF.


We didn't get a drop. Not a leaf moving. Very dry.
Quoting SPLbeater:


evenin grothar


What are you doing up at this hour?
Quoting Grothar:


What are you doing up at this hour?


well...i dont really know. what time is it where u at?
Quoting SPLbeater:


well...i dont really know. what time is it where u at?


12:56 AM
Only 162 days until B-day.
Quoting Grothar:


12:56 AM


ah, so your not where i didnt think you were. :D

Bedtime for me. Talk with ya later Gro!
Quoting Grothar:
Only 162 days until B-day.


On Groundhogs Day you and I will be the same age.

Gee, that is scary. :)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (994 hPa) located at 14.7S 67.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 to 40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 15.8S 65.4E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 17.6S 64.4E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 20.5S 63.0E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 24.0S 62.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

An irregular 2 degrees diameter central dense overcast with very cold top associated has maintained over the system since 2100 PM UTC. Microwave imagery show an improve organization of the low level circulation center with a developing small inner core. Most available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards recurving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues Island Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Within the next 48 to 60 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

Vertical northwesterly wind shear is forecast to weaken rapidly the system and make it lose tropical characteristics at the end of The period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Natural disasters: Quakes the biggest killer

Earthquakes killed more people last year than all other types of natural disasters combined, new United Nations figures show.

A report by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction shows 20,943 people died in earthquakes last year, out of a total 29,782 people killed by 302 disasters.

Most of the quake toll was from the massive 9.0 magnitude earthquake and resulting tsunami that claimed the lives of 19,846 people in Japan last March.

However, it was the 182 deaths from the February 22 Christchurch earthquake that hit hardest for New Zealand.

UNISDR chief Margareta Wahlström said many major cities such as Christchurch needed to ready themselves for the possibility of more destructive earthquakes.

"In 2010 we saw this phenomenon as well when over 220,000 people died in Haiti, which had not been hit by an earthquake of such strength for almost 200 years."

"Unless we prepare for the worst then many earthquake-prone urban areas around the world are destined to see even greater loss of life in the future as more and more people move to cities."

Floods were the second biggest killer of 2011, claiming more than 5,000 lives.

Storms killed more than 3,000 people, while extreme temperatures claimed 231 lives compared to the annual 10-year average of 14,731 between 2001 and 2010.

Asia accounted for 45 per cent of disasters and more than 85 per cent of the total death toll.

Meanwhile, Europe experienced very few disasters and impacts in 2011 with the lowest numbers killed, numbers affected and economic damages since 1990.
261. JRRP
Quoting RTLSNK:


On Groundhogs Day you and I will be the same age.

Gee, that is scary. :)


Shh. Don't give away his age.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEPRESSION TROPICALE 08-20112012
10:00 AM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 08R (999 hPa) located at 17.4S 40.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
30 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 17.8S 40.0E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
24 HRS: 18.1S 38.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
48 HRS: 18.3S 37.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 18.7S 38.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

The system is close to moderate tropical storm strength. Latest satellite imagery depict an overall improving organisation with recently some convectively bands wraping in the northern semi-circle. Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) and also AVNO are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast.

Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature.

Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be excluded at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on Tropical Depression 08R will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Quoting JRRP:


Almost 4 days without any quake in the area and we get a 5 in RD....

dont know if we can conclude that inactivity in the region accumulates energy that will be released later..
The snow is really piling up in the Pacific/Mountain Northwest now. A few examples:

Ketchum, ID: 38.5"
Stanley, ID: 32.9"
Mt. Hood Meadows, OR: 50"
Timberlane, OR: 45"
June Lake, WA: 31"

Rain has been heavy, too, of course:
Salem, OR: 4.47"
Corvallis, OR: 4.21"

...and wind. Lots of wind:
Livingston, MT: 71 mph
Wheatland, WY: 77 mph
Bend, OR: 66 mph

There's also some deep cold to the east and ahead of that storm, with temperatures in northern North Dakota expected to reach -20 and lower, with wind chill readings near -50 in a few locations. Most areas will be back to, or above, normal by the weekend.
Low temperature in Macon, Georgia this morning was 30.1*F at 0630 hours.(edited just now at 0632)

No snow yet. :)


"Thank you.

The Wikipedia blackout is over - and you have spoken.

More than 162 million people saw our message asking if you could imagine a world without free knowledge. You said no. You shut down Congress's switchboards. You melted their servers. Your voice was loud and strong. Millions of people have spoken in defense of a free and open Internet.

For us, this is not about money. It's about knowledge. As a community of authors, editors, photographers, and programmers, we invite everyone to share and build upon our work.

Our mission is to empower and engage people to document the sum of all human knowledge, and to make it available to all humanity, in perpetuity. We care passionately about the rights of authors, because we are authors.

SOPA and PIPA are not dead: they are waiting in the shadows. What's happened in the last 24 hours, though, is extraordinary. The Internet has enabled creativity, knowledge, and innovation to shine, and as Wikipedia went dark, you've directed your energy to protecting it.

We're turning the lights back on. Help us keep them shining brightly."

Read more
morning all. I see that 08S came to be while i was sleeping.
Tropical Cyclone Ethel(07S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 990.3mb/ 55.0kt

Raw T# 3.6
Adj T# 3.6
Final T# 3.5

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
------------------------------------------------- ---

Tropical CYclone Eight(08S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.0 / 995.8mb/ 45.0kt

Raw T# 3.5
Adj T# 3.3
Final T# 3.0

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
MId TN Forecast low for tonight is 25.. for tomorrow night it is 50 with the daytime highs in the 60's! This has got to be one of the mildest winters around here in a long time..
27 here in D.C.Luckly the winds are calm and not like they were yesterday.See ya around.
Quoting 1911maker:
Can some one provide the energy (watts/sq meter, or any measure, I can convert) in IR spectrum between 1 and 10 microns that hits the Midwest (surface, not top of atmosphere) on a clear day in July?

A graph would be best.

My searching is not working. I found the total energy in the full spectrum, but I need the 1 to 10 micron range of the spectrum.


You're not finding much because you're asking for a very specific detail that would normally require research level type equipment.

That being said, it's something you should be able to calculate and get a decent estimate of from available data sources. For example, there are multiple solar insolation maps that will show you the overall watts/m^2 for places in the US. For Minnesota in July, the value seems to be around 5.7 kWh/m^2/day.

The typical breakdown of solar energy hitting the surface is about 52.5% IR, 44.3% visible, and about 3.2% UV. So this rough calculation shows that in July Minnesota (on average) gets about 2.99 kWh/m^2/day of IR radiation total.

But that is only showing direct solar contribution. A chunk of visible light is also converted into long-wave IR radiation so the surface IR radiation actually is higher. This also covers the IR spectrum, not just the the range of wavelengths you specified.

Very back-of-the-envelope, but should get you in the ballpark.
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well technically it is due to more incoming energy - the energy imbalance is from greenhouse gases absorbing and re-emitting longwave radiation. It's not more incoming energy relative to the entire earth system, but it is more incoming energy relative to the earth's surface, where warming must occur due to this imbalance.

"Trapping heat" as in the greenhouse metaphor is a nice way to describe it for the public or those not heavy into the science disciplines, but it's not exactly an accurate way to describe the enhanced greenhouse effect.


I was referring to incoming energy in the context of direct solar insolation, as the poster seemed to be implying. I also try to keep things simple because not everyone is familiar with/wants to hear about the actual dynamics involved. :)
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ETHEL (07-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Ethel (991 hPa) located at 16.1S 66.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 to 50 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
======================
60 to 70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 17.4S 65.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.6S 64.6E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 21.4S 63.1E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.5S 62.6E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

After a slight decrease in the overall cloud pattern during midday, the cloud pattern is now improving again. AMSUB microwave imagery also suggest that the small inner core structure is still improving.

Ethel made a harp south southwest turn, a little bit sooner than previously expected. Consequently, the forecast track moved eastwards in agreement with latest ECMWF output. Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards re-curving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island early Saturday morning.

Within the next 36 to 48 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperatures and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Funso (994 hPa) located at 17.8S 40.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM radius from the center extending up to 60 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.3S 39.3E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.7S 38.3E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.6S 37.2E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.5S 38.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern has consistently improved along the day with very deep convection flaring and wrapping around the center. Latest high resolution imagery depict an hint of a warm spot in the central dense overcast. Consequently, intensification could be stronger than said in the current forecast.

Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36 to 48 hours on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a eastwards to southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast before a new westwards turn at the end of the forecast period under the steering influence of a
subtropical ridge that should build south of the channel.

Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. The intensification process is held off between 36 to 72 hours as the system should move little near the Mozambican coasts. This slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factors.

Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region ... With a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time...inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 19:00 PM UTC..
276. MahFL
We only got 1/4 inch of rain from yesterdays front, here in Orange Park.
277. MahFL
Quoting Skyepony:... Besides, says NASA, they weren't using the radar anyway.


The Russians have a long history of blaming other things for thier spacecraft failing. If they admit they screwed up, they'd be off to Siberia, as it were.....
Moderate earthquake rattles northeastern Iran- strongest in 10 years

Posted on January 19, 2012
January 19, 2012 – IRAN – An earthquake hit north-eastern Iran on Thursday but there were no immediate reports of casualties or major damage. The magnitude 5.5 earthquake hit at 4:05pm (local time) about 10 kilometers outside the city of Neyshabur, which is some 70km away from the holy city of Mashhad, the official IRNA news agency said. “There have been no reports of casualties yet,” Red Crescent official Ali Asghar Hassanzadeh told the semi-official Fars news agency, adding that windows of some houses in Neyshabur had been shattered. The IRNA news agency said the quake lasted seven seconds and was the strongest felt in the region in 10 years. Many parts of Iran are prone to earthquakes. At least seven people were killed in a magnitude 6.5 quake that jolted the south east on December 20 in 2011, the same region where a huge tremor killed some 31,000 people in the city of Bam in 2003. -ABC
Re: #260 --- I thought Dr. Masters had recently published a blog stating that the drought and subsequent famine in Africa had killed more people than any other disaster in 2011.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Minneapolis did not set a record for the latest first zero reading in the winter after all. 0 degrees at 11 p.m. there.

January 18th record is tied but still stands.
haven't checked up on official numbers or the record yet, but i'm pretty sure it was sub-zero temps they were tracking on this one. perhaps a -1F still occurred before midnight.
Quoting Minnemike:
haven't checked up on official numbers or the record yet, but i'm pretty sure it was sub-zero temps they were tracking on this one. perhaps a -1F still occurred before midnight.

NWS says the temp fell to -1 at 11:25 PM, meaning that the record was merely tied. (The official time will be marked as 11:59 PM.)

Now we have to see how many subzero days there are in total in the Twins and elsewhere (St. Cloud, Mankato, Eau Claire, Albert Lea, etc.)
Quoting Xyrus2000:


You're not finding much because you're asking for a very specific detail that would normally require research level type equipment.

That being said, it's something you should be able to calculate and get a decent estimate of from available data sources. For example, there are multiple solar insolation maps that will show you the overall watts/m^2 for places in the US. For Minnesota in July, the value seems to be around 5.7 kWh/m^2/day.

The typical breakdown of solar energy hitting the surface is about 52.5% IR, 44.3% visible, and about 3.2% UV. So this rough calculation shows that in July Minnesota (on average) gets about 2.99 kWh/m^2/day of IR radiation total.

But that is only showing direct solar contribution. A chunk of visible light is also converted into long-wave IR radiation so the surface IR radiation actually is higher. This also covers the IR spectrum, not just the the range of wavelengths you specified.

Very back-of-the-envelope, but should get you in the ballpark.


http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html

Xyrus2000 Thanks a lot. My back ground is electrical Engineering, I did not know the term solar insolation. By looking that up, I am way far ahead of were I was. Thanks for doing the calculation also.

Quoting Neapolitan:

NWS says the temp fell to -1 at 11:25 PM, meaning that the record was merely tied. (The official time will be marked as 11:59 PM.)

Now we have to see how many subzero days there are in total in the Twins and elsewhere (St. Cloud, Mankato, Eau Claire, Albert Lea, etc.)
as painful as this morning was, outside for about 40-45min, it is comforting to see this air arrive.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Re: #260 --- I thought Dr. Masters had recently published a blog stating that the drought and subsequent famine in Africa had killed more people than any other disaster in 2011.
I noticed that. Earthquakes are sudden and without warning. The drought is old news to many people and does not have the same shock value as an earthquake. Therefor less ratings, hype and money for news organizations. It does not matter how many killed or why, it has to be newsworthy. Earthquakes have been very deadly past few years............................................. .................................................. ..................January 12, Haiti region, M7.0
According to official estimates, 316,000 people killed, 300,000 injured, 1.3 million displaced, 97,294 houses destroyed and 188,383 damaged in the Port-au-Prince area and in much of southern Haiti. Other estimates suggest substantially lower numbers of casualties, perhaps as low as fewer than 100,000. The casualties include at least 4 people killed by a local tsunami in the Petit Paradis area near Leogane. Tsunami waves were also reported at Jacmel, Les Cayes, Petit Goave, Leogane, Luly and Anse a Galets. The tsunami had recorded wave heights (peak-to-trough) of 12 cm at Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and 2 cm at Christiansted, US Virgin Islands. Uplift was observed along the coast from Leogane to L'Acul and subsidence was observed along the coast from Grand Trou to Port Royal. Felt (VIII) at Leogane; (VII) at Carrefour, Port-au-Prince and Petionville; (VI) at Vieux Bourg d'Aquin; (V) at Port-de-Paix. Felt (V) at La Vega, Moca and San Cristobal; (IV) at Bani, Bonao, Luperon, Nagua, Puerto Plata, Santiago, Santo Domingo and Sosua, Dominican Republic. Felt throughout Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Felt (III) at Oranjestad, Aruba; (IV) at Santiago de Cuba and (III) at Guantanamo, Cuba; (II) in the Kingston-Mona area, Jamaica; (II) at Carolina and San Juan, Puerto Rico; (III) at Cockburn Harbour and (II) at Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands; (III) at Maracaibo and (II) at Caracas, Venezuela. Felt in parts of The Bahamas, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands and as far as southern Florida, northern Colombia and northwestern Venezuela. Date
UTC Region Magnitude Number Killed *
2011 01 18 Southwestern Pakistan 7.2 3
2011 02 04 Myanmar-India border region 6.2 1
2011 02 21 South Island of New Zealand 6.1 181
2011 03 10 Myanmar-China border region 5.5 25
2011 03 11 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan 9.0 20352
2011 03 24 Myanmar 6.9 74
2011 04 07 Near East Coast of Honshu, Japan 7.1 3
2011 04 11 Eastern Honshu, Japan 6.6 7
2011 05 11 Spain 5.1 10
2011 07 19 Kyrgyzstan 6.1 14
2011 09 05 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia 6.7 10
2011 09 18 Sikkim, India 6.9 108
2011 09 19 Guatemala 5.6 1
2011 10 23 Eastern Turkey 7.1 601
2011 10 28 Near the coast of central Peru 6.9 1
2011 11 09 Eastern turkey 5.6 8
2011 12 11 Guerrero, Mexico 6.5 2
Total 21401--- Earthquakes


Deaths from Earthquakes in 2010

Deaths in 2010
Deaths from Earthquakes in 2010 Date
UTC Region Magnitude Number Killed *
2010 01 10 Java, Indonesia 5.1 1
2010 01 12 Haiti region 7.0 316000
2010 01 17 Guizhou,China 4.4 8
2010 01 30 Eastern Sichuan, China 5.1 1
2010 02 27 Offshore Bio-Bio, Chile 8.8 547
2010 02 27 Salta, Argentina 6.3 2
2010 03 08 Eastern Turkey 6.1 42
2010 04 04 Baja California, Mexico 7.2 2
2010 04 13 Southern Qinghai, China 6.9 2968
2010 04 18 Central Afghanistan 5.6 11
2010 05 14 Northern Algeria 5.2 2
2010 06 16 Near the North Coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.0 17
2010 06 30 Oaxaca, Mexico 6.3 1
2010 07 20 Southern Iran 5.8 1
2010 08 27 Northern Iran 5.7 3
2010 09 27 Southern Iran 5.8 1
2010 10 10 Pakistan 5.2 1
2010 10 25 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 7.8 503
2010 11 03 Serbia 5.5 2
2010 12 20 Southeastern Iran 6.7 7
Total 320120
Tepco will raise the electricity cost for the families
Posted by Mochizuki on January 19th, 2012

Tepco will raise the electricity bill for non-corporation consumers by 5~15% to pay for compensation and abandoning the nuclear plants.
Tepco employees were paid bonus last December (Average 300,000JPY) but they claim they will have 600 billion yen of deficit for this March. They assert “If they can’t re-start nuclear plants, they will have 800~900 billion of deficit annually, it can’t be a business.”
Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Edano refused them to try to raise the electricity bill the end of last year.
However, if Tepco goes bankrupt, they can no longer pay for compensation and abandoning the reactors. Japanese government agreed with Tepco to raise the fee.
Japanese citizens will be compensated from their own electric fee after Tepco steals their own profit.
Something may be trying to get itself together over Solomon Islands

30 minutes ago:



now:



Look at the western eyewall, it now is covered in firing deep convection with a slight gap in convection in between the two eyewalls....I'm just throwing the possibility for EI out there.

For comparison sake, here is Funso 3 hours ago, and here is Funso 4 hours ago.
This is the slowest I have ever seen the blog....I bet if I could serve delicious, ice cold, home brewed and 3 x,s the kick of average beer on this blog, there would be a couple more blog entries...just my harmless opinion...:)...I also hope that I am not castigated by the wanna be blog police....I,m lonely......sniffle, snurf...