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Major Winter Storm Delaying Travel in Eastern U.S.; Lehar Weakens to a Tropical Storm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:04 PM GMT on November 27, 2013

The busiest travel day of the year in the U.S. is at hand this Wednesday, and Winter Storm Boreas continues to slow travel over much of the Eastern U.S. with a nasty mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, heavy rain, and high winds. Dangerous snowy and icy travel will continue to cause trouble in many of the high elevation areas from the Smoky Mountains to Maine Wednesday. The greatest snows of 6+ inches will fall in the Adirondack Mountains of New York, and strong northwest winds will bring lake effects of 2 - 4" to Rochester, NY and much of the south shore of Lake Ontario.


Figure 1. Winter Storm Boreas heads up the Eastern U.S. on Tuesday, November 26, 2013. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory.

A very wet and windy storm for the U.S.
Boreas has tapped into an "Atmospheric River" of very moist air from the Gulf of Mexico, and the amount of water vapor available to make rain (the "Precipitable Water") was near record highs (for November) along the East Coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. The high elevation areas of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia received more than 3" of rain in a 24-hour period ending at 8 am EST Wednesday, and both New York City and Philadelphia got more than 2". The heavy rains, combined with cloud ceilings as low as 500 feet and wind gusts as high as 40 mph, have slowed air traffic landing at New York's La Guardia airport and in Philadelphia. The FAA web site warned of 1 hour delays for flights arriving in Philadelphia, and 2 hours at La Guardia, on Wednesday morning. However, none of the other 38 major airports in the U.S. was reporting delays in excess of over 15 minutes Wednesday morning, and Winter Storm Boreas has been more of a nuisance than a travel disaster.

Accompanying Boreas' heavy rains along the coast have been high winds; a Wind Advisory for sustained winds of 20 - 30 mph, with gusts up to 60 mph, is in place along much of the coast from New Jersey to Maine. While the rains will be gone on Thursday in time for the Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade in New York City, winds will still be strong, making conditions potentially too dangerous for the balloons used in the parade. These balloons are not allowed to fly if the city experiences sustained winds of 23 mph with gusts of 34 mph. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 15 - 25 mph gusting to 40 mph on Thursday.


Figure 2. Observed precipitation for the 24-hour period ending Wednesday, November 27, 2013. Image credit: NOAA.

Lehar weakens to a tropical storm; threat to India lessens
Cyclone Lehar has met up with dry air and strong upper level winds that have torn into the storm, reducing it to a tropical storm with 65 mph winds at it heads west-northwest at 17 mph towards India's Bay of Bengal coast. Satellite images show that Lehar is much less organized than before, with a much diminished area of heavy thunderstorms. Cooler waters near shore and continued dry air and wind shear as the storm nears landfall will keep Lehar below hurricane strength until landfall. Landfall is expected to occur between 06 - 12 UTC Thursday, November 28, in the Andhra Pradesh state of India.

Have a great Thanksgiving, everyone, and I'll be back Friday with a new post.

Jeff Masters
Storm Boreas..
Storm Boreas..
hitting us hard up here in the Mt Washington Valley of NH and Western mountains of Maine..heavy freezing rain over snow, sleet..flood warnings are in place and downed/broken trees/wires beginning to occur..
November Rose
November Rose
I was surprised to see these crystals on the Rose. I guess I had a little hoar frost. Need to get out earlier.

Winter Weather Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

502. flsky
Quoting 474. CybrTeddy:
Don't forget about the SpaceX launch tonight at 5:39pm EST. It'll make up for ISON if all goes well.


Too many clouds. Won't see it from my house this time.
503. flsky
Quoting 502. flsky:


Too many clouds. Won't see it from my house this time.

Just aborted. Can launch thru 640p
Just coming home, checking in and reading back. Ummm, RIP ISON? Just a shadow of its former self??
What a disappointment...




Current stereo pics (saved images) of what is left from ISON. Source.
Down from 30% to 20% in five days.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST THU NOV 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GRADUALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
THE AZORES. ALTHOUGH THE LOW COULD ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AFTER
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


Lake-induced meso low spinning in western Lake Superior, expected to bring 4-6" additional inches of snow to the southern shore snow belts.
Quoting 501. nrtiwlnvragn:
Falcon 9 flight on Spaceflightnow


Watching it now 10 minutes to go.

New pic (saved). At least something visible still is left from ISON.
(Some confusion on Twitter, as you can imagine: "RIP" - "Alive", like watching the tropics with some Invest, lol).

Solarham:
New imagery released by LASCO suggests that a portion of the comet may actually have survived. Stay Tuned.
509. VR46L
Interesting image from Mobile NWS

T minus 4 minutes...
They are a go for launch with 1 minute remaining. Watching history in the making here.

Are the particles falling off the rocket ice? This is when the rocket is still on the launch pad.
Never mind. launch aborted.
What happened?
Don't know, one of the techs yelled abort, abort, abort.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #40
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA, FORMER TC LEHAR (BOB07-2013)
23:30 PM IST November 28 2013
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The depression over coastal Andhra Pradesh weakened further and now lays as a well marked low pressure over coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Telangana.

This is the final tropical cyclone advisory from the India Meteorological Department...
They just put the tower back to hold the rocket into place and shut everything down. Doesn't look like it is going up tonight. :(

They just announced that no more atempts to launch will occur today.
Apparently engineers needed to review some more data.

Scrubbed for a few days...
Ran out there in the cold (58.8ºF) with my camera & all. All good in the name of safety though.
Quoting 517. Tropicsweatherpr:
They just announced that no more atempts to launch will occur today.


2351 GMT (6:51 p.m. EST)
SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk sent a tweet a few minutes ago saying launch would likely be delayed a few days while engineers lower it horizontal and move it into the hangar for inspections.
Quoting 519. Skyepony:
Ran out there in the cold (58.8ºF) with my camera & all. All good in the name of safety though.


That's right skye you are close! I can usually see the launches at night - although it is weird, since I am 200 miles away it takes several minutes before it is visible.
Not a good day for the space followers with the comet and now this abort.
Quoting 522. Tropicsweatherpr:
Not a good day for the space followers with the comet and now this abort.


But just watch the remnants (?) of ISON. Another update is available but I don't want to post this image every some minutes, lol.
I don't now about that. They abort is in the name of safety and the rocket didn't go "boom" or fall out of the sky. And pieces of the comet, if not the comet itself, made it around the sun.

If anything it was a space followers day to watch. And they can watch another day now too.
Quoting 493. allancalderini:
Many where thinking Melissa was the last but the Atlantic looks poise to bring Nestor.lol I love mother nature sometimes :P
Im very concerned about Nestor. This could be the start of huge hurricane season.

Hey, hey ...
The "no traces left" headlines obviously failed, lol (even if ISON is kind of headless now).



(Saved images).
Nice Aqua pass of 90L earlier.



Quoting 521. Dakster:


That's right skye you are close! I can usually see the launches at night - although it is weird, since I am 200 miles away it takes several minutes before it is visible.

Yeah, I'm a bit rocket junkie & usually close enough for a half decent view. Maybe it's the curvature of the earth. ~40 miles away it takes roughly 30-40 secs til I can see it come over the trees.
Quoting 525. eyewallblues:
Im very concerned about Nestor. This could be the start of huge hurricane season.


I guess you will be alone in that worry... I won't be worrying about Nestor...
Quoting 524. Dakster:
I don't now about that. They abort is in the name of safety and the rocket didn't go "boom" or fall out of the sky. And pieces of the comet, if not the comet itself, made it around the sun.

If anything it was a space followers day to watch. And they can watch another day now too.


What I mean't was that we lost the opportunity to see a coment make it intact after moving close to the sun and that would be a very nice view afterwards. And the aborted launch postponed for a few days was the climax for a disappointed day. But better times will come ahead for us who are space followers.
Quoting 529. Tropicsweatherpr:


What I mean't was that we lost the opportunity to see a coment make it intact after moving close to the sun and that would be a very nice view afterwards. And the aborted launch postponed for a few days was the climax for a disappointed day. But better times will come ahead for us who are space followers.


Yep, exciting times for us in the future for sure.
Quoting 519. Skyepony:
Ran out there in the cold (58.8ºF) with my camera & all. All good in the name of safety though.


Got down to 39 in Longwood last night.
Time to load up on another cocktail
Scott - Dang. That cold.. wow... Nice...

Temps back near 80. The cold was great while it lasted!

I can always tell when the temps break into the 60's down here. You can smell people's fireplaces. It is the only time you can use them, because the lower temp. gives your A/C a chance to overcome the heat of the fireplace.

...A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTH GEORGIA...AND INLAND
NORTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT THE SOUTHEAST BIG BEND...

.CLEAR SKIES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW THE FREEZING POINT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WILL RAISE MOISTURE LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BIG
BEND...ESPECIALLY DIXIE COUNTY...JUST ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
FREEZE...OR ONLY ALLOW PATCHY FREEZE CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR
LESS RIGHT AT SUNRISE. WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAWN...PATCHY FROST
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE FREEZE WARNING.

It went down to 38.8°F in Melbourne lastnight.


Fresh Cloudsat of 90L. It doesn't have much height.

Updated 11/28/2013 @ 22:15 UTC

Did ISON Survive?

Below is a video by STEREO Ahead COR2 capturing what was once thought to be the final moments of Comet ISON. The video is looped twice at higher speed and shows what appeared to be the comet vaporizing just before the predicted Perihelion. The third loop in slow motion stops on the possible point of disintegration. New imagery released by LASCO suggests that a portion of the comet may actually have survived. Stay Tuned.

ISON Update Below is updated imagery by LASCO C2 within the past hour which continues to show that perhaps a small fragment of Comet ISON survived. More to follow.



Evening all. It was a genuinely cool day today here in Nassau, though we didn't get very much rain. Nice to be able to wear a long sleeved shirt without sweating... lol

I'm hoping the haziness lasts for another 24 hours or so, which would help keep temps down during the day tomorrow. I'm sure by Saturday, though, we'll be up to the lower 80s again.

I'm just heading home from work after a long day, so I may or may not check in later. I hope all my US fellow-bloggers enjoyed their Thanksgiving Day, and I'm sure at least some are now resting up in preps for heavy-duty shopping tomorrow... :o)

Just checked... our overnight low at the airport still didn't go below 70... :o/ At my house it got a little cooler, I think, but unfortunately I didn't measure.

I'm watching this "high low temp" with interest. Maybe we'll get to be a real "heat island" this winter, in both senses of the phrase... lol
We have a Survived Sun Grazer Now climbing fast from the Corona field !!!!

Wooo, da friig, Hooo!!

YeeeeeHaaaaaawwwwwww Patrap...
If it continues to brighten, after Dec 2-3 itsa going to be a Morning and evening playah'..


Quoting 464. CybrTeddy:


So badly ripped apart by the Sun's gravity that it didn't even show up on SDO's images.
Moving at 622,000 mph around the Sun can be hard on such objects..Second fastest thing that I have ever seen.
I'll have to keep eye on her Patrap. Would be neat to see ISON in person.
At Perihelion ISON was moving at approx 1% of the speed of light.

That's hauling the mail.

Quoting 546. hydrus:
Moving at 622,000 mph around the Sun can be hard on such objects..Second fastest thing that I have ever seen.


Ok, I'll bite. What was the first thing?
I have some Hyper-ed Kodak Royal Gold 1000 speed film in the fridge for a morning attempt at it.

My first try since Hale Bopp, 97,April

I remember Hale Bopp... Good photo of it.

Gonna drag out the old camera to try for ISON? Of course, now, where are you going to get "film" developed nowadays?
DANG !!!! Did you see the 18z GFS , i almost fainted , so much snow engulfs the Ohio valley and Mid-atlantic mid-December!
Quoting 549. Dakster:


Ok, I'll bite. What was the first thing?
God...1985..
Developing Film is as easy as making jello..

Folks been doin it since tin type.



I have a dealer processor.

Retro Film and Photography is a Huge rage atm.

Washi is gonna have a heart attack... when she sees the 12z and 18z..
Quoting 554. Patrap:
Developing Film is as easy as making jello..

Folks been doin it since tin type.



I have a dealer processor.

Retro Film and Photography is a Huge rage atm.



I used to develop my own B&W and Color film, but finding the chemicals to do so now are tough.


You know the day destroys the night
Night divides the day
Tried to run
Tried to hide
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side, yeah



I need to see a bit more consistency to say about the snowstorm, i told you it was our turn but i got ignored...
Quoting 553. hydrus:
God...1985..


Umm. Explain? Year you were born?
Can someone show the 18z run of the GFS.
Quoting 559. Dakster:


Umm. Explain? Year you were born?
No. I was at work on the Detroit River.. It was 3 A.M. out on deck when I said to myself " if there really was a God, He would have given me a sign by now..He obliged me by ripping the heavens apart from horizon to horizon in about a tenth of a second..It was like he took his finger and whipped it across the starry sky..For the record I was sober then and now..:)
Quoting 558. Climate175:
I need to see a bit more consistency to say about the snowstorm, i told you it was our turn but i got ignored...


I'm sorry, what did you say?
Quoting 561. hydrus:
No. I was at work on the Detroit River.. It was 3 A.M. out on deck when I said to myself " if the really was a God,he would have given me a sign by now..He obliged me by ripping the heavens apart from horizon to horizon in about a tenth of a second..It was like he took his finger and whipped it across the starry sky..For the record I was sober then and now..:)


:)

Quoting 562. Dakster:


I'm sorry, what did you say?
Im sorry didn't you understand about the GFS or not ?
Wow, quite a happening or sign , hydrus.
566. beell
Quoting 562. Dakster:


I'm sorry, what did you say?


I'm surprised no one is talking about the big snowstorm...
;-)
New Frame from 00:18 shows more brightening.

568. beell

11/28 18Z GFS 2 m temp/10 m wind/12 hr precip-valid Friday, 12/6
Quoting 561. hydrus:
No. I was at work on the Detroit River.. It was 3 A.M. out on deck when I said to myself " if the really was a God,he would have given me a sign by now..He obliged me by ripping the heavens apart from horizon to horizon in about a tenth of a second..It was like he took his finger and whipped it across the starry sky..For the record I was sober then and now..:)


But have you laid off the LSD now?

(Sorry couldn't resist)


Climate175 - It was a joke... trying to lighten your mood is all.
Quoting 565. originalLT:
Wow, quite a happening or sign , hydrus.
I have never forgotten it, and remember vividly. I never talk about it , but tonight I say why not..:)
Anyone seen the movie "Chasing Ice". Decided to watch that tonight...
Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving..A blessed and safe night to all.
What. An. Odd. Comet.

Totally baffled by this thing. Even the experts are at a loss for this.
What did ISON do, stop and have lunch behind the sun?
SOHO gif.

www.solarham.net

Updated 11/29/2013 @ 02:00 UTC

Comet ISON Recap

Thursday was a day full of excitement and also many questions in regards to Comet ISON. The eyes of sky watchers around the world were tuned into a number of space weather websites wondering if the sungazing comet would survive its close encounter with our star. Comet ISON brightened throughout the day as it neared the sun, with a long dusty tail visible behind it in both LASCO and STEREO imagery. When it came time for the predicted perihelion (closest approach to the Sun) at 18:44 UTC, initial indications were that ISON did not survive the intense solar atmosphere and burned up. Comet ISON was declared dead by many. After a few hours had passed, what appeared to be a fragment of the comet re-emerged in both LASCO C2 and STEREO Ahead coronagraph imagery. Did ISON survive? Imagery and video below appear to support that scenario. More updates to follow regarding this event. Stay Tuned!
AL, 90, 2013112900, , BEST, 0, 252N, 391W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 375, 150, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M
We could be tracking our next winter storm for the Northeast very soon.
Another cold night for the SE US.

Yep, it is going to be brutally cold down here at 69F.
Quoting 581. Dakster:
Yep, it is going to be brutally cold down here at 69F.


Of coarse not FL atleast not C & S FL.
69 is COLD... I actually had to turn the A/C off.
Quoting 571. Dakster:
Anyone seen the movie "Chasing Ice". Decided to watch that tonight...
Excellent documentary - had to download it to watch it here in Panama, but it was worth it. Incredible effort and amazing filming - spectacular on a big hi-def LCD TV.
Quoting 584. Xulonn:
Excellent documentary - had to download it to watch it here in Panama, but it was worth it. Incredible effort and amazing filming - spectacular on a big hi-def LCD TV.


Just finished watching it. It is incredible. Between Chasing Ice and Tipping Points I am truly scared about what is going on in the world. (I'll leave the debate on how much 'we' are causing it out)

The changes are amazing.

I had previously watched the big calving event on youtube shortly after it happened. It was neat to have that put into perspective with the movie.
For perspective, it was 72 at the Airport (KRAL), 70.0 at my place. Didn't go out much today. If your watching a movie full of Ice that would make you want to turn off the AC and fire up the heat (mentally) and it is cooler today. I saw the National view earlier and everyone is getting chilled.
Hope everyone had a good holiday. We here had our Thanksgiving last weekend in San Diego so we didn't over do it.
Quoting 585. Dakster:


Just finished watching it. It is incredible. Between Chasing Ice and Tipping Points I am truly scared about what is going on in the world. (I'll leave the debate on how much 'we' are causing it out)

The changes are amazing.

I had previously watched the big calving event on youtube shortly after it happened. It was neat to have that put into perspective with the movie.



faster and faster
The Good Times......
NASA Comet ISON Observing Campaign

After perihelion, a very faint smudge of dust appeared in the the LASCO C2 images along ISON's orbit. This surprised us a little, but we have seen puffs of dust from Sungrazer tails, so it didn't surprise us enormously and didn't change our diagnosis. We watched and waited for that dust trail to fade away. Except it didn't.

Now, in the latest LASCO C3 images, we are seeing something beginning to gradually brighten up again. One could almost be forgiven for thinking that there's a comet in the images!

Matthew and I are ripping our hair out right now as we know that so many people in the public, the media and in science teams want to know what's happened. We'd love to know that too! Right now, here's our working hypothesis:

As comet ISON plunged towards to the Sun, it began to fall apart, losing not giant fragments but at least a lot of reasonably sized chunks. There's evidence of very large dust in the form of that long thin tail we saw in the LASCO C2 images. Then, as ISON plunged through the corona, it continued to fall apart and vaporize, and lost its coma and tail completely just like Lovejoy did in 2011. (We have our theories as to why it didn't show up in the SDO images but that's not our story to tell - the SDO team will do that.) Then, what emerged from the Sun was a small but perhaps somewhat coherent nucleus, that has resumed emitting dust and gas for at least the time being. In essence, the tail is growing back, as Lovejoy's did.

..much more,
peaceful and cold night nothing on the big board

Quoting 590. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
peaceful and cold night nothing on the big board

Do the models show a snowstorm on Dec 11-12 ?
We typically see a snowmaggedon-like storm every 7 years , and a major snowstorm every 4 years...
Was Sup Keeper? Hows your temps?

58.7F here....
2016-2017 may be the winter maybe if the trend is true.
Quoting 591. Climate175:
Do the models show a snowstorm on Dec 11-12 ?
18z run show something by hr 192

Quoting 593. PedleyCA:
Was Sup Keeper? Hows your temps?


nothing much ped

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 11:00 PM EST Thursday 28 November 2013
Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:30.4 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:22.6°F
Dewpoint:11.8°F
Humidity:63%
Wind:N 7 mph
Wind Chill: 15
Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, North Carolina states are due for snow! Times up !
Quoting 595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z run show something by hr 192



00z run is running now will see if its still showing and moved up in time
Quoting 595. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
18z run show something by hr 192

Any snow around then ?
Quoting 599. Climate175:
Any snow around then ?
looks like rain snow further north and west
18z hr 192
That is plenty brisk up there. Even without the wind.
like I said lets see what 00z run says
Good Night Peeps - Stay Warm - Stay Safe - Enjoy what's left of the day....
see ya tomorrow ped

have a good evening
FYI... in response to recent (and ongoing) discussions about tornado safety and the myth that persons must get below ground to survive a violent tornado, I have created a detailed blog post about mortality rates in violent tornadoes.  Of particular note is information presented in the recently-released National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report on the Joplin tornado, which allows some analysis to be done on survival vs. fatality depending on location and tornado strength.

In short, the science says that "Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.
00z shows snow for MD again !
Quoting 606. Climate175:
00z shows snow for MD again !
system moved up into the mid 150 range lows 60's



Well, 9 heart attacks later (Due both to the amount of food eaten and the stressful Ravens game) I think I should go to bed. Good Night everyone!! Hope everyone sleeps well.

(And I did not actually have heart attacks. Just making a joke)
Comet ISON is confirmed to have survived, partially, its encounter with the sun.
way out into left field another sys showing for 192 204 216 hr





Quoting 607. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
system moved up into the mid 150 range lows 60's



For Dec 11-12th.
From Houston-Galveston NWS discussion:

SATELLITE TRENDS HAVE DIMINISHED THE HIGH CLOUD COVER. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE WHICH SHOULD HELP MAXIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...PREFERRED THE COOLER MAV GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT OVER THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE.
Looks like Nestor is not coming.FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND THE AZORES. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY WHILE IT MOVES GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
Significant ice storm on the GFS for North Carolina by December 10th. Taken verbatim, I would leave the area until power was restored.
Quoting 609. CybrTeddy:
Comet ISON is confirmed to have survived, partially, its encounter with the sun.


That's because it's really, really cold.
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link

Quoting 616. Walshy:
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link
There was a supposed incident or two like that in the one I work at. Luckily, I was in automotive helping one of the assistants with TV sales.
Quoting KoritheMan:

There was a supposed incident or two like that in the one I work at. Luckily, I was in automotive helping one of the assistants with TV sales.


Oh no. Someone posted this to reddit. Jumped to 114K views at night time. My local Walmart is going to be on the news tomorrow.
Good Morning.Chilly here but not too bad this morning..
Quoting 616. Walshy:
My friend got kicked out of Walmart for recording black Friday footage, lol.

Elkin, North Carolina

Link
Lol.
622. VR46L
Morning Folks !

Bracing day here ,



EDit withdrew comment maybe in bad taste
surf forecasting is not easy so many variables can affect the forecast.
Quoting 605. ScottLincoln:
FYI... in response to recent (and ongoing) discussions about tornado safety and the myth that persons must get below ground to survive a violent tornado, I have created a detailed blog post about mortality rates in violent tornadoes.%uFFFD Of particular note is information presented in the recently-released National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) report on the Joplin tornado, which allows some analysis to be done on survival vs. fatality depending on location and tornado strength.

In short, the science says that "Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.

As long as it isn't a EF5 that does this to you house.
Lets try this in a different post.

EF5 damage - nothing but slab left. But I do agree that most tornadoes (even EF3 or stronger ) are survivable if you get in the right location of the home.


Not sure how large this will appear.
Damage from May 15, 2013 GRANBURY, Texas -6 deaths
Not sure how this tornado was rated an EF4 with some homes "wiped clean from their foundations."
This house had just been finished being built a few hours before the tornado hit. Tornado left nothing but the slab.
comet? kind of like wishcasting this atlantic hurricane season
The Forecast was 61 degrees i got down to 55 degrees !:)Next Cold front on MONDAY!!:)
Big warm up compared to yesterday.
I woke up to 39 degrees at our house yesterday morning and 54 this morning.
15 degree warm up in 1 day.

Fort Myers Fl.
If Comet Ison teams up with Sub Tropical Storm Nestor....It is very apparent to me that we are DOOMED.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

DISCUSSION...
A SLIGHTLY WARMER START TO THIS MORNING CAN BE FELT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WHERE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE AROUND 7-10 DEGREES
WARMER THAT AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

A FAIRLY DOCILE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED ACROSS MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES WILL ALLOW NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS DURING THIS TIME WITH BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY OVER THE
ATLANTIC.

BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. A
THIN MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY BRINGING SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MODEST RIDGING
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
Quoting 629. eyewallblues:
If Comet Ison teams up with Sub Tropical Storm Nestor....It is very apparent to me that we are DOOMED.
i done wanna die, sniffle, cry..
plus








equals
Quoting 577. Patrap:
ISON was moving at speeds hard for many people to comprehend. The rule of thumb many years ago was if an object was moving faster than 72 kilometers per second, it come from outside the Solar System. ISON was moving at around or even over 80 KPS.
Quoting 632. PensacolaDoug:
plus








equals
I,ll have one of who,s wearing I love Nestor.
Quoting 633. hydrus:
ISON was moving at speeds hard for many people to comprehend. The rule of thumb many years ago was if an object was moving faster than 72 kilometers per second, it come from outside the Solar System. ISON was moving at around or even over 80 KPS.



In a word, haulin' mass...
636. MPI88
Quoting 605. ScottLincoln:
Yes, you can survive that violent tornado above ground", and the odds are likely in your favor.


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.
What does the Euro say?
Quoting 635. PensacolaDoug:



In a word, haulin' mass...
Yep. Speaking of which, if ISON would have been much larger, we would have had a great celestial show. jmo
A shell of its former self.
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.
Huh? I see no signs of such "encouragement". The article Scott cited in his blog post merely explained in a very scientific and objective way that being above ground when a tornado hits is not an automatic death sentence. That's all.

(Announcing that not all people who smoke cigarettes die of cancer or emphysema shouldn't be looked at as "encouraging" people to smoke; it's just a simple statement of scientific fact.)
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.


I graduated from Moore High School just south of Oklahoma City. We had a house just West of Moore out in an undeveloped area at the time (just oil pumps).

I wouldn't live in Oklahoma (tornado alley region) of the country without a basement or a shelter of some kind.
Tornadoes 1962 - 2011 (Central Oklahoma)
Area just north of Oklahoma City shows a lot of long track tornadoes. This is also the area where the chasers were killed this year.


Catastrophic situation in Madeira Island again due flash floods Link
Off topic
Just took a picture of this guy out my window. I guess it's some type of hawk.
Quoting 643. Sfloridacat5:
Off topic
Just took a picture of this guy out my window. I guess it's some type of hawk.


my guess - either an immature Sharp-shinned or Coopers Hawk. Size and tail would help confirm.

Edit: after thinking about your location, Florida, and the speckled wing markings, I think this may be a red-shouldered hawk. :) One I rarely see in Wisconsin.
If its a chicken hawk, Foghorn Leghorn better hide.
Quoting 642. Luisport:
Catastrophic situation in Madeira Island again due flash floods Link
Amount of rain 'comparable' to the 2010 catastrophic flash floods Link
Event into space in Greece on Friday, 29 November, 2013 at 04:31 (04:31 AM) UTC.
Description
Meteor falling into the sea at night time in Greece, on the island of Zakynthos to cause panic in citizens but concluded that there was no damage. Greek official news agency ANA-MPA reported, eyewitnesses of the air with a violent explosion that lit up one of the object, like a ball of fire fall very quickly towards the sea, the statement was given.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 624. Sfloridacat5:
As long as it isn't a EF5 that does this to you house.

In my blog post I reference two papers that summarize fatalities in F5 tornadoes. The majority of persons survived in areas with F4/5 damage. The chance of being hit by the isolated areas of EF5 winds in the EF5 tornado is also quite small.
Quoting 625. Sfloridacat5:
Lets try this in a different post.

EF5 damage - nothing but slab left. But I do agree that most tornadoes (even EF3 or stronger ) are survivable if you get in the right location of the home.


Not sure how large this will appear.
Damage from May 15, 2013 GRANBURY, Texas -6 deaths
Not sure how this tornado was rated an EF4 with some homes "wiped clean from their foundations."
This house had just been finished being built a few hours before the tornado hit. Tornado left nothing but the slab.

An important discriminator in deciding EF4 vs. EF5 is how well the home was attached to the foundation. Typically engineers will look for a continuous load path through the structure into the foundation that provides resistance to high winds.

Also of note... a detached home of average construction that is completely swept clean has expected winds of 200 mph. With the new EF-scale, winds must be 201 or greater for an EF5 classification, meaning that homes must be of above-average construction, even if just slightly. This is a slight difference between the F-scale and the new EF-scale.
Quoting 636. MPI88:


I find this a rather odd conclusion that more or less encourages inadequate sheltering.

Obviously tornado's do not have to be lethal when you are above ground. However the probability of getting injured greatly increases with inadequate sheltering.

Risk = probability x consequence.

Given the amount of uncertainty (tornado track, intensity, quality of your home) I would not take that bet. An 1% probability on a major consequence (death) is a no go.

I am absolutely in no way advocating that a person choose to remain above ground if they have the option of getting below ground during the treat of a tornado. The best action to take during a tornado is to get inside a sturdy structure, into a small interior room on the lowest floor.

The point of my technical blog post is to comment on the myth that you must get below ground to survive a tornado, which implies that those without a basement or safe room should evacuate or search for other shelter if faced with a confirmed large and dangerous tornado. Empirical evidence strongly suggests that your chance of surviving a violent tornado - one that completely destroys your house down to the foundation - is not low, even in portions of the country with few basements. This empirical evidence was corroborated by additional details on the Joplin tornado. I also showed evidence that the chance of fatality increases as the "relative sheltering" decreases.
Dear Dr. Masters, I have enjoyed reading your forecast and report. I liked the photo of the rose with the first frost as well as the cabin on Mt. Washington New Hampshire. According to that photo of the cabin in the snow atop Mt. Washington, there doesn't seem to be much snow on Mt. Washington at this time. That mountain should have more than five feet of snow by now. Hopefully, larger storms will arrive there in the next month or so. Nothing much has happened out west in San Jose, California. We just had one day of measurable precipitation in September as well as one day of precipitation in November. I hope that we will be getting some more rain and mountain snow here soon.
Sincerely, Dave Five