WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Major Typhoon SOUDELOR Heading for Taiwan

By: Steve Gregory 6:43 PM GMT on August 05, 2015





WEDNESDAY: 05-AUG-15
(By Steve Gregory - Substituting for Dr. Masters and Bob Henson.)

MAJOR TYPHOON TO STRIKE TAIWAN FRIDAY

What was the strongest Super Typhoon of the year just 36 hours ago with top winds estimated near 200mph, has weakened to a Major, CAT 3 Storm some 460NM SSE of Okinawa as outflow, especially to the north, has weakened considerably and the upper level Outflow weakened proportionately. Even in the WPAC, Super Typhoons like SOUDELOR with extremely small ‘pinhole’ eyes (at one point, less than 4NM across) rarely are able to maintain their MAX intensity following a ERC (Eyewall Replacement Cycle) – and in this case, the significant reduction in the outflow Jet speeds has only accelerated the current weakening phase. In addition, the symmetric and well developed outflow pattern of SOUDELOR is likely being negatively impacted by developing INVEST 96W well to the east of SOUDELOR.

That said – as the storm continues on a generally westward heading (280˚-290˚), the global models show a significant increase in the poleward outflow speeds in 36-48 hrs which should lead to re-intensification – possibly to a CAT 4 intensity by the time it reaches Taiwan late Friday/early Saturday. With virtually every global and specialized Hurricane Forecast model in excellent agreement on the track, there is a very high probability of a direct, full-force strike to the Island nation. After crossing the Island, the cyclone should weaken to a CAT 2 before striking the mainland China coast.

Next UP: INVEST 96W

Another large, developing TC (INVEST 96W) is estimated near 18˚N/147˚E, still well east of the Mariana Islands, is likely to intensify into a Typhoon during the next 48 hrs as it’s already developing an outflow pattern aloft and is in an area of low shears and very warm SST’s.

TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN

Former Hurricane GUILLERMO has continued to weaken over the past several days to Tropical Storm strength with sustained winds now estimated near 50Kts and is located about 280NM east of the Big Island. The storm is expected to pass parallel to, but north of, the Hawaiian Island chain on Thursday and Friday, and will likely have minimal impact on any of the Islands as all significant convection (and max winds) is now only found to the north of the cyclone center.

Numerous RECON flights - including G-IV missions – confirm the steady increase in westerly wind shear observed in Satellite (SAT) imagery over GUILLERMO. This has greatly disrupted the inner circulation field as the vortex now has a strong ‘tilt’ in the mid and upper levels, and a major degradation in high level outflow.

Considering the increasing shear environment and current trends, it would not be surprising to see the storm weaken to depression intensity by the time it passing north of Hilo, and could easily become a remnant Low well north of Honolulu by Friday.

THERE’S MORE COMING WHERE GUILLERMO CAME FROM…

The next system to potentially pose a threat to Hawaii is INVEST 92E, now near 12˚N/127W, or about 1,400NM SW of the southern tip of Baja. The system is still quite close to the ITCZ but should extradite itself from its influence within the next 24-36 hours, allowing the system to begin developing. The latest model runs call for the system to slowly intensify to Tropical Storm intensity in 36-48 hours, as it heads WNW. This system is at least 6-8 days away from it becoming a possible threat to Hawaii.

Several global models are calling for a series of cyclone formations in the EPAC over the next 10-14 days, all of which have the potential to threaten Hawaii. It certainly appears that this year’s strong El Niño environment will be producing numerous EPAC storms with a significant potential to reach the Islands.

TROPICAL ATLANTIC – BELIEVE IT OR NOT - IT REALLY IS HURRICANE SEASON

The Tropical Atlantic is ‘stirring’ – but don’t expect a cyclone formation anytime soon.

Even though former INVEST 94L can still be identified in the central Atlantic, and ‘silly’ INVEST 95L exits from any real concern – we do see a more active environment continuing to develop over the far eastern Atlantic, with a significant Tropical Wave (TW) now just off the African coast, with distinct mid-level rotation observed in the TPW imagery loops. However, this system is solidly embedded within the ITCZ, and considering its current track that will send it towards a more stable environment, it’s unlikely this system will be able to spin-up.

On the ‘plus’ side (for those anxious to have a bona-fide cyclone to track), conditions have become more conducive for cyclone formation over the past week or so. SST’s in the EATL have finally risen to a level that can support ongoing convection, and wind shear is generally low enough south of 20˚N to not be a major hindrance. Probably more importantly at this point is the very large drop-off in the SAL (Saharan Air Layer) flow that has been a major hostile force all summer as the warm, dry air layer has produced a very stable environment across much of the tropical Atlantic.

This seasonal drop-off in the SAL is likely to continue, though occasional surges are likely at times over the next few weeks, especially if/when especially strong TW’s come off the African coast at ‘higher’ latitudes – which typically happens by the end of AUG thru mid-September – coinciding with ‘Cape Verde Season’.

As I’ve pointed out in earlier posts, wind shear in the CARIB has been extremely high this season – primarily induced by the strong El Niño event in progress over the EPAC. This will likely to continue for the rest of Hurricane season, though no doubt, there will be some periods of reduced shear especially in SEP and early OCT.

For additional coverage on national weather, El Nino and other related topics - I will be posting a new Blog update late this afternoon on my own WU Blog.

**

Fig 1: 48 Hour Color Enhanced IR (infrared) image loop of Typhoon SOUDELOR


Fig 2: Water Vapor Imagery of SOUDELOR from earlier today highlighting the banding structure of the storm, along with cloud top Temps that are as low as -70˚C. The CDO signature has weakened compared to yesterday, and while not cloud filled, there are some low level clouds within the eye – characteristic of a weakening system.


Fig 3: WPAC SST’S (left) and total OHC (Ocean Heat Content - right) SST’s are well above levels needed to support a CAT 5 intensity, and remain above 30˚C until reaching the Taiwanese coast. OHC along the projected track for SOUDELOR does drop off some, but remains high enough to support a Major storm as long as the storm’s forward motion does not slow appreciably. A major slowdown (not expected) would lead to widespread, strong upwelling which could weaken the storm – or at least prevent any strengthening.


Fig 4: Micro-wave Image highlighting possible ERC. This early AM image shows the most intense convective feeder band and eye wall of SOUDELOR. On this image, you can see what appears to be major weakening of the inner eyewall as an outer wall develops.


Fig 5: Upper level Wind analysis from CIMSSshows a much reduced outflow jet towards the north, and a bit weaker equatorward jet which has led to the weakening observed over the past 36 hours. In addition, a developing outflow over INVEST 96W to the east of SOUDELOR is also interfering with the Typhoon’s outflow.


Fig 6: Navy Track and Intensity Forecast from this AM is in excellent agreement with all global and specialized hurricane model forecasts – especially on the track – with a direct hit to Taiwan expected by early Saturday. Note the forecast for an increase in intensity prior to landfall as upper level outflow – especially poleward – should increase in 36-48 hrs, allowing an increase in low level surface winds.


Fig 7: Last VIS image showing SOUDELOR on the far left, with developing INVEST 96W about 950NM east of SOUDELOR. It’s can be tough to determine which system’s circulation field will be most impacted by the other’s!


Fig 8: Color Enhanced IR image and Shear analysis of T.S. GUILLERMO shows most of the significant convection is now only found to the north of the storm, with wind shear values approaching 40Kts. With shears increasing to over 60Kts near Honolulu, GUILLERMO’s days are numbered.


Fig 9: Navy Track and Intensity Forecast for GUILLERMO calls for the tropical Storm to weaken to depression intensity in within 48-72 hrs. This is likely too generous – as the system is likely to weaken to Depression intensity within 36-48 hrs.

CLICK IMAGE to open full size image in a new window
Fig 10: Color Enhanced IR (infrared) image of the Tropical Atlantic The remnant disturbance that was INVEST 94L is still discernable as a very weak Low near the base of the TW along 48W which is westbound at about 15Kts. Aside from several other very weak TW’s, a stronger wave with mid-level rotation is located just off the African coast, but is solidly embedded within the ITCZ which is inhibiting development. Most notable in today’s overview of the tropical ATL is the major reduction in the SAL flow – with little dust filled air found anywhere over the ATL ocean. However, the forecast for the SAL (below) does show a strong, but limited SAL flow spreading over the EATL in the next day or two. While none of the global models call for this TW to develop into a cyclone, an upstream wave over central Africa and still a couple days away from reaching the coast, is forecast by the ECMWF to spin-up into a cyclone by early next week – though none of the other global models concurs with this outlook.



Fig 11: The TPW (Total Precipitable Water) Loop (Top) and latest image frame (bottom) highlights areas with deep layered moisture. ‘Bluish’ colors represent dryer air while the darker, ‘orange’ tones highlight areas of deep moisture in the column of air above the surface. The 72 hour looped imagery shows a clear rotation in vicinity of the African coast – embedded within the ITCZ.


Fig 12: Specialized ‘Dust’ focused imagery from the EUMETSAT product suite. The magenta/pinkish colors correspond to specific light wavelengths that have been shown to correlate with atmospheric dust.If you've been following my blogs this summer, you know by now there are quite a few different products that aim to highlight Dust and other aerosols associated with the SAL (Saharan Air Layer). Many of these products tend to ‘overdo’ dust concentration - for example, the Univ. Of Wisconsin CIMMSS product which tends to rely on moisture content analysis in the lower portion of the atmosphere. The above 24 hour loop tends to underplay actual dust content; but, the 3 different products I've posted this season, when used together, usually results in a fairly accurate analysis. While I haven’t posted any this season, even ‘normal’ Visible imagery taken early in the day, along with MODIS True Color imagery can do an excellent job of highlighting aerosol content. What makes the ABOVE imagery so useful is the simultaneous depiction of deep convection over Africa at hourly intervals, enabling us to get a good handle on Tropical Waves moving across the African continent. The strongly highlighted area of low-level dust north of the ITCZ is forecast to come off the African coast during the next day or two (See Below), while we can also see the strong area of convection over central Africa that the ECMWF is forecasting to develop into a cyclone early next week.


Fig 13: Specialized ‘Dust’ analysis / forecast from NASA calls for a strong burst of dust filled air over the next few days – but is significantly less ‘dense’ and ultimately less expansive than we’ve seen over the past couple months.

For additional coverage on national weather, El Nino and other related topics - I will be posting a new Blog update late this afternoon on my own WU Blog.

Steve

TYPHOON TROPICS

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TYPHOON HANNA
11:00 PM PhST August 6 2015
======================
Typhoon "HANNA" has weakened while continuously moving in west northwest direction

At 10:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (948 hPa) located at 20.1N 132.1E or 1,060 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the Northern and Eastern seaboards of Luzon, the seaboards of Palawan, of Visayas and of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 AM tomorrow.
   Thanks for the Update....
The Atlantic will awaken..soon nuff.




Another large, developing TC (INVEST 96W) is es8imated near 18˚N/147˚E, still well east of the Mariana Islands, is likely to intensify into a Typhoon during the next 48 hrs as it’s already developing an outflow patter aloft and is in an area of low shears and very warm SST’s.


Japan Meteorological Agency already has a 25 knot tropical depression for this disturbance.




Dangerous heat coming, but I'll be in Jersey and NYC middle of next week

      and I thought it was HOT here.....
great post thanks Doc
Guillermo is slightly stronger than advertised. A reconnaissance aircraft investigating the storm has found flight-level winds above 60kt, with surface winds near 60kt.

Quoting 5. RitaEvac:





Dangerous heat coming, but I'll be in Jersey and NYC middle of next week


Yea, it's going to be dangerously hot. Hopefully the libraries, churches, malls and such have cooling stations for all the people that live outdoors (homeless). Hopefully the high heat comes with plenty of cloudiness.

Enjoy your time away in the cooler portion of the states
I despise everything about this hurricane season.

12z ECMWF 240 hours. Dropped any CV development.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #55
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON SOUDELOR (1513)
3:00 AM JST August 6 2015
=========================
In Okinotori-shima Waters

At 18:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Soudelor (945 hPa) located at 20.1N 131.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=============
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 21.3N 126.4E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Sea South Of Okinawa
48 HRS: 23.3N 121.3E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
72 HRS: 24.9N 117.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Southern China
1013 mb not sure if it is ex 94 or what but not too bad AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N49W. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W/41W SIX HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
     
 

      This is from Guillerrmo, My brother up East of S.F. said his high was 81 yesterday, instead of low nineties. This is North of me and is working its way down here for tomorrow, hence the forecast cool down.
Thank you, Steve Gregory, for filling in with such a detailed post.
I like your explained maps. Moreover Fig. 13 with the Saharan dust is very useful. I haven't seen it yet elsewhere (guess it isn't accessible for the public?).
Quoting 10. CybrTeddy:

I despise everything about this hurricane season.

12z ECMWF 240 hours. Dropped any CV development.


We shouldn't be surprise. :(
The View From Goresat


Quoting 3. Patrap:

The Atlantic will awaken..soon nuff.







But ex 94L is looking real good:)
Quoting 12. islander101010:

1013 mb not sure if it is ex 94 or what but not too bad AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N49W. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 40W/41W SIX HOURS
AGO HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.


Yep that's 94L


From last blog

Quoting 250. Bucsboltsfan:



I respectfully disagree about your analysis that it has "everything going for it but the dry air." The dry/stable air is everything and thats why it had no chance to develop when everyone talked about it days ago. There's hardly any clouds left and my understanding is that a tropical entity that has everything going for it should have a concentrated area of thunderstorms.

Why weren't you hyping up 95L? It dumped record rains in Florida, had a well defined llc, the NHC sent a plane to investigate.


It has almost everything going for it except surrounding air mass which is dry
It does have thunderstorms over it although not so organised and are not that strong

The reason I'm not hyping 95L is it even still designated as 95L anymore by NHC BEST Track data
Is because it's not really tropical and is not expected to be anything tropical

Unlike the tropical low to which is Ex-94L and the E Atlantic AOI are indeed well tropical

Anyway sometimes systems may have everything or almost everything going for it but it just won't soar

Anyway let's watch and see


Anyway I strongly believe we will see a good amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin in the second half of Aug and into Sept
Quoting 10. CybrTeddy:

I despise everything about this hurricane season.

12z ECMWF 240 hours. Dropped any CV development.




As you should. A AEI reading of 4.01 sigma means the atmosphere is strongly responding to El-Nino combine that with a unfavorable sea surface temp set up across the Atlantic means we'll likely only get 3 to 5 more storms if were lucky.
Quoting 17. Bucsboltsfan:



But ex 94L is looking real good:)


Ex-94L looks ok
But looks great for a supposedly dead system
My prediction for the rest of the season is 4/2/1. Conditions are hostile as we've ever seen out there; near record wind shear dominates the Caribbean and an incredibly dry airmass dominates the central Atlantic. Our best hope, assuming nothing changes, is brief development near the Cape Verde Islands or in the northeastern Gulf, or formation in the subtropics.
Quoting 20. wunderkidcayman:



Ex-94L looks ok
But looks great for a supposedly dead system
So you think 94L has a chance and is not dead?
Well, wasn't the monsoon expected to be considerably weaker in an El Nino year? Just wondering ...

Monsoon rain claims hundreds of lives
BBC weather video, 5 August 2015 Last updated at 16:49
India, Myanmar and other countries in the area have been badly hit by heavy monsoon rains in recent days and weeks. BBC Weather's Jay Wynne has the latest.
Quoting 23. barbamz:

Well, wasn't the monsoon expected to be considerably weaker in an El Nino year? Just wondering ...

Monsoon rain claims hundreds of lives
BBC weather video, 5 August 2015 Last updated at 16:49
India, Myanmar and other countries in the area have been badly hit by heavy monsoon rains in recent days and weeks. BBC Weather's Jay Wynne has the latest.


Isn't the Indian Ocean warmer than the usual El Nino pattern? Maybe that is making the difference.

What I got from this post:Atlantic is dead.
Quoting 22. Gearsts:

So you think 94L has a chance and is not dead?



Ex-94L is not dead

Yes I think 94L has a chance but low % at this time if ex-94L does develop I'd say TD maybe weak 40mph TS at best and that's really pushing it

I think shear will be lower than that in about 120hrs ;)

I know shear will ease up in the Caribbean more like it's been doing for past 24-48hrs during the next 24-48hrs

But will see just have to wait and watch

All i want from EX 94L is rain
Great update with good graphics Steve.
Quoting 25. washingtonian115:

What I got from this post:Atlantic is dead.

NO, it is not dead. It is just the sleeping beast. It can bite less frequently, but if it bites you...




Hmm I see convection has weakened on ex-94L
If continues and low level structure fails the it dies but if convection increases then it remains alive
Quoting 26. wunderkidcayman:



Ex-94L is not dead

Yes I think 94L has a chance but low % at this time if ex-94L does develop I'd say TD maybe weak 40mph TS at best and that's really pushing it

I think shear will be lower than that in about 120hrs ;)

I know shear will ease up in the Caribbean more like it's been doing for past 24-48hrs during the next 24-48hrs

But will see just have to wait and watch


I show you graphics maps and computer model runs for the shear but you just think shear will be lower.
Quoting 3. Patrap:

The Atlantic will awaken..soon nuff.







That's what they told us last year... I am thinking at it's peak we'll get maybe 3 more storms this year, perhaps a hurricane. If we get a major it will likely be off the east coast.

I'm here watching what is now becoming former ex-94L vaporizing before my eyes. No rain then. This former invest is all but a ghost now.
Nice blog.

Anyone remember this theme song....

Rollin', rollin' rollin'

Government in PR plan use cloud seeding technology to improve the water collection at several the hydrologic basins. Some called experts from UPR (University of Puerto Rico) will supervise the procedure and collect data for there months at the expense of more than $60000/month. The "scientists" in charge are really they are NOT experts. This is just a desperate and ridiculous attempt from the Government to occult his top incompetence to solve the water crisis. More than 60 % of potable water is lost through the obsolete system of distribution. According to the information (Endi.com) the seeding substances will be CaCl2 and AgI. DANGER, specially from AgI...
Quoting 31. juracanpr1:


NO, it is not dead. It is just the sleeping beast. It can bite less frequently, but if it bites you...
It's dead for now I'm not saying it'll be dead the entire season.
Even at 48hours the shear is way too high.
Could be higher than a 3

Precipitable water at 48 hours





Precipitable water at 54 hours


Quoting 35. Grothar:

Nice blog.

Anyone remember this theme song....

Rollin', rollin' rollin'



Rollin', rollin' rollin'
Keep those doggies rollin'
Rollin', rollin' rollin'
Rawhide!
Quoting 16. JohnLonergan:

The View From Goresat




Wow, just wow.
Quoting 18. wunderkidcayman:

<

The reason I'm not hyping 95L is it even still designated as 95L anymore by NHC BEST Track data
Is because it's not really tropical and is not expected to be anything tropical

Unlike the tropical low to which is Ex-94L and the E Atlantic AOI are indeed well tropical

Anyway sometimes systems may have everything or almost everything going for it but it just won't soar

Anyway let's watch and see


Anyway I strongly believe we will see a good amount of storm activity in the Atlantic basin in the second half of Aug and into Sept

95L had probably a better chance to develop then 94L will ever had, it didn't have to contend with dry air had warm SSts, and only dealt with land interaction and shear. I would argue it was very tropical based upon the rainfall amounts, if it was classified it would have been a tropical cyclone.
@ 38
Keep them dogies rollin
Quoting 6. PedleyCA:


      and I thought it was HOT here.....


I cant resist posting this for you Ped.

Link
Re: quote # 10 - map - look at the THREE high-pressure centers showing just in the Eastern Caribbean.... Not sure I can recall the Caribbean ever being quite so dry for so long across so much of its expanse, in mid- to late summer.
Quoting 14. barbamz:

Thank you, Steve Gregory, for filling in with such a detailed post.
I like your explained maps. Moreover Fig. 13 with the Saharan dust is very useful. I haven't seen it yet elsewhere (guess it isn't accessible for the public?).



NASA product Link
Heat wave in Brazil.
I don't support seasonal forecast but...that was uncalled for.
Quoting 23. barbamz:

Well, wasn't the monsoon expected to be considerably weaker in an El Nino year? Just wondering ...

Monsoon rain claims hundreds of lives
BBC weather video, 5 August 2015 Last updated at 16:49
India, Myanmar and other countries in the area have been badly hit by heavy monsoon rains in recent days and weeks. BBC Weather's Jay Wynne has the latest.

I think there are several factors at play -- not only is the Indian Ocean warmer, but the air is warmer and able to carry more water vapor. However, one other factor that I think gets overlooked is that a lot of people die every year during the Asian monsoon, mostly from the flooding that is a normal part of it. In addition, though, it was hot and dry before the monsoon commenced and the soil was pretty well baked, which meant that most of the early monsoon rains ran off more than soaked in, so that added to the flooding tendency. Yet another factor is the enormous population of the region, still growing and thus straining the system even more. It all adds up.
Quoting 40. Grothar:

Could be higher than a 3



They keep changing their minds and charts!

Quoting 46. PlazaRed:


I cant resist posting this for you Ped.

Link


All I see at that link is NOPE.
In plenty middle of the Winter, the Argentina could reach more than 40C/104F this weekend in a very unusual heat wave. The Argentina won't be the only place striked by this heat wave, Paraguay, Uruguay and South Brazil also will be striked. The Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil) and the other areas could reach more than 35C this weekend.





The Jet stream pattern and a strong high pressure over Brazil will block all fronts and cold air masses. With this block, torrencial rain event (floods and severe thunderstorm) will affect the area between Uruguay and Argentina:




And Chile and Argentina, a winter storm will strike the Andes will torrencial rain and heavy snow (in areas of desert).


The Severe Thunderstorms can be accompanied by tornadoes in Argentina, in the provinces of Crdoba, Santa F, Entre Rios e Buenos Aires.

Anyways, Soudelor is trying to mix out the large amounts of dry air that made it into its circulation last night. The system reminds me of Typhoon Chan-hom from a few weeks ago, which was never really able to recover from the same struggle. Hopefully that's the case here.

And man--I'm still in love with that outflow pattern.

3-day water rationing starts August 13 for customers of the Carraizo reservoir. Sigh...

First two reservoirs in the graphic supply water to most of PR's metropolitan area and as you can see they both have a little more than 4 meters left before reaching the out of service state.

Thanks for the update Mr Gregory
ex-94.a.future.contender?
Quoting 54. CaneFreeCR:

I think there are several factors at play -- not only is the Indian Ocean warmer, but the air is warmer and able to carry more water vapor. However, one other factor that I think gets overlooked is that a lot of people die every year during the Asian monsoon, mostly from the flooding that is a normal part of it. In addition, though, it was hot and dry before the monsoon commenced and the soil was pretty well baked, which meant that most of the early monsoon rains ran off more than soaked in, so that added to the flooding tendency. Yet another factor is the enormous population of the region, still growing and thus straining the system even more. It all adds up.


Surely the ground is always baked in the pre-monsoon heatwaves of that part of the world though? While currently based in Bratislava, Slovakia, I can vouch that the (continental) European heatwave is gathering pace again. The Wunderground forecast high for this city is 99F for Friday, with no break from the 90s in the coming ten days. It's also possible that some all-time records could be broken. For central Europe, an area which does not utilise much air conditioning, this 10C per day anomaly is particularly significant. The one bonus is that while the night temperatures will only drop to the low 70s, the air is not very humid this far from the sea, which makes this heatwave a little more comfortable by night. The average high should be around 80 with a low of 55, pretty ideal conditions which I signed up for...
Quoting 13. PedleyCA:

     
 

      This is from Guillerrmo, My brother up East of S.F. said his high was 81 yesterday, instead of low nineties. This is North of me and is working its way down here for tomorrow, hence the forecast cool down.



Still, all in all, it has been quite the nice summer in Sooo Cal thus far. We have had some nice monsoon rains and seems to moi it has been cooler than normal overall so far. Keep them Lows a coming into the state and keep that ridge away! Warm today at 94 but the window A/C is doing well and 74 inside. Another Dolores type setup would be nice in the next couple weeks, but a ridge may push them toward the Hawaiian Island as Mr Gregory noted in his update. Also, keep them Kelvin Waves a coming!
66. bwi
Beautiful August weather here in the Dc area -- hot but normal hot. Not too humid.

Meanwhile up north, this year's melting season has gotten very exciting (yeah, I know watching ice melt may not be exciting for others...). After a record low extent last spring, the weather turned cold in the Arctic in June, and another humdrum sea ice melting season was expected. However, July was very warm and sunny, and ice volume has plummeted. Now, the sun is receding, and most melting will be from the (relatively) warm water, at least into September when the refreeze starts. If a big storm churns up the ice and water, it's possible (though unlikely) that we could approach 2012's stunning record lows for sea ice extend and area and volume.

Over in Greenland, the melt also started slow, then hit a very warm spell, but has dropped back to around normal or maybe even a bit less on melt extent measure for the last couple weeks. http://nsidc.org/greenland-today/





Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TYPHOON HANNA
5:00 AM PhST August 6 2015
======================
Typhoon “HANNA” has maintained its intensity as it moves closer to Batanes area

At 4:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (948 hPa) located at 20.3N 131.1E or 955 km east of Basco, Bataneshas 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings


Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the Northern and Eastern seaboards of Luzon, the seaboards of Palawan, of Visayas and of Mindanao.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 60. JLPR2:

3-day water rationing starts August 13 for customers of the Carraizo reservoir. Sigh...

First two reservoirs in the graphic supply water to most of PR's metropolitan area and as you can see they both have a little more than 4 meters left before reaching the out of service state.




Bummer! Hope ya get some rain!
Quoting 55. PlazaRed:


They keep changing their minds and charts!




A Cat 3 or 4 gonna be bad either way.........just hope it doesn.t slow down and dump on them mountains, they will get enough rain if it maintains it's forward speed. Batten down the hatches. They are used to this though.
Quoting 32. wunderkidcayman:





Hmm I see convection has weakened on ex-94L
If continues and low level structure fails the it dies but if convection increases then it remains alive


looks to be on its last legs now!
Still 94........and a low of 64 this am. Nice and dry with 16%Rh.


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Wed, 05 Aug 3:19 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Wed, 05 Aug 3:10 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
05 Aug 3:10 pm PDT 94 41 16 NW 8G14 OK
05 Aug 3:00 pm PDT 94 41 16 NW 7G12 OK
Quoting 69. HurricaneHunterJoe:



A Cat 3 or 4 gonna be bad either way.........just hope it doesn.t slow down and dump on them mountains, they will get enough rain if it maintains it's forward speed. Batten down the hatches. They are used to this though.

If they get hit at a 4 then even if the transit speed is relatively high the winds together with the massive width of the storm are bound to bring a lot of devastation.
If the transit speed is slow, then its anybody's guess how much will be left standing.
Then its on to part 2, as it drifts into China.

Quoting 65. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Still, all in all, it has been quite the nice summer in Sooo Cal thus far. We have had some nice monsoon rains and seems to moi it has been cooler than normal overall so far. Keep them Lows a coming into the state and keep that ridge away! Warm today at 94 but the window A/C is doing well and 74 inside. Another Dolores type setup would be nice in the next couple weeks, but a ridge may push them toward the Hawaiian Island as Mr Gregory noted in his update. Also, keep them Kelvin Waves a coming!
   98 at the Airport(was 100), 93.8 here(was 94.5) 28% humidity, 77 in here, still using the Water Cooler.
Looks to me Soudelor's eye wall replacement cycle is almost finished:





With SSTs of 30C+ ahead of it and very favourable upper level winds, let's hope it doesn't manage to strengthen into a category 5 once again.
Fish stew? Soup?



#HotWater
Quoting 59. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Anyways, Soudelor is trying to mix out the large amounts of dry air that made it into its circulation last night. The system reminds me of Typhoon Chan-hom from a few weeks ago, which was never really able to recover from the same struggle. Hopefully that's the case here.

And man--I'm still in love with that outflow pattern.



There's some bad potential here. It's definitely made a big effort in the last few hours to throw out the dry air, as evidenced by deep convection wrapping all the way around the eye, as opposed to earlier when there were large gaps caused by dry air. Microwave imagery still shows a pretty ragged core, and it's very possible that between those internal issues and the threat of more dry air intrusions, it may remain pretty much steady-state until landfall, dangerous but not catastrophic. I like the Chan-hom comparison. However, if it is indeed mixing out the dry air, and begins organizing in the next 12-18 hours, the timing could work out such that it achieves a secondary peak very close to the time of landfall in around or a little less than 48 hours, as suggested by several models. As you say, the outflow is fantastic, and shear will not be an issue for it. SSTs and OHC will also be increasing after a drop in the past 24-36 hours, which may have contributed to its struggles. It's grown so much too... used to be a tiny little thing. Now it barely fits in the floater box.

Quoting 70. stormpetrol:



looks to be on its last legs now!


The NHC dropped it about 4 days ago for good reason.
Quoting 77. Bucsboltsfan:



The NHC dropped it about 4 days ago for good reason.
Been five days now. 94L was dropped on Saturday. What remains of 94L might help kick off some more thunderstorms in Trinidad and Venezuela but that's about as far west as it will get. It's still firmly attached to the monsoonal trough and really has nowhere else to go. Unfortunately for the eastern Caribbean, it's not suddenly going to dash north and give them any rain.
Quoting 73. PedleyCA:


   98 at the Airport(was 100), 93.8 here(was 94.5) 28% humidity, 77 in here, still using the Water Cooler.

High of 101 here with a low dewpoint of 71. It's down to 87 now but still with a dewpoint of 76 after some outflow winds from thunderstorms west of me. They are now beginning to collapse as we lose the heat of the day. These diurnal storms always begin to die about now. There's a trough that will enter north Alabama tomorrow and give them a decent chance of rain but it's going to wash out before it gets this far south. My last rain (0.28") was on July 28. Between the persistent high temperatures and lack of rain, my garden and lawn are looking pretty sorry now. The A/C hasn't quit running since early June.
Quoting 76. MAweatherboy1:


There's some bad potential here. It's definitely made a big effort in the last few hours to throw out the dry air, as evidenced by deep convection wrapping all the way around the eye, as opposed to earlier when there were large gaps caused by dry air. Microwave imagery still shows a pretty ragged core, and it's very possible that between those internal issues and the threat of more dry air intrusions, it may remain pretty much steady-state until landfall, dangerous but not catastrophic. I like the Chan-hom comparison. However, if it is indeed mixing out the dry air, and begins organizing in the next 12-18 hours, the timing could work out such that it achieves a secondary peak very close to the time of landfall in around or a little less than 48 hours, as suggested by several models. As you say, the outflow is fantastic, and shear will not be an issue for it. SSTs and OHC will also be increasing after a drop in the past 24-36 hours, which may have contributed to its struggles. It's grown so much too... used to be a tiny little thing. Now it barely fits in the floater box.


This is going to be a tough storm for Taiwan and China. As you said, it has grown to massive proportions now, and Hong Kong up to Shanghai will feel the effects from Soudelor as it makes landfall in the PRC. I don't know what the ultimate effect will be on Taiwan. I was impressed with their civil defense plans for typhoons, including mandatory evacuations and some pretty big shelters. I expect the loss of life will be quite low, but damage to property and infrastructure may be another matter. Soudelor has to cross some big mountains to get past Taiwan, so that may be China's best hope for less effects from this storm.
Quoting 72. PlazaRed:


If they get hit at a 4 then even if the transit speed is relatively high the winds together with the massive width of the storm are bound to bring a lot of devastation.
If the transit speed is slow, then its anybody's guess how much will be left standing.
Then its on to part 2, as it drifts into China.


Many things would have to align for this system to be "devastating". Taiwan is extremely mountainous on its east side, so as long as the system doesn't track over the northern tip (Taipei) or southern tip (Kaohsiung), it shouldn't be too bad. Even if it does move a bit north or south, this island is used to extreme rainfall events. I was there just a few months ago and it rained non-stop for 5 days. No one even blinked at that. Add to that its earthquake preparedness and I think the buildings will hold up just fine.



two storms to watch soon
Well I would be kinda worried if it hits the river delta in the north or specifically just to the south of it due to the fact it is heavily populated and is quite low in comparison to the rest of the east cost making much more susceptible to storm surge and river flood.
Quoting 81. LAGotNoWeather:



Many things would have to align for this system to be "devastating". Taiwan is extremely mountainous on its east side, so as long as the system doesn't track over the northern tip (Taipei) or southern tip (Kaohsiung), it shouldn't be too bad. Even if it does move a bit north or south, this island is used to extreme rainfall events. I was there just a few months ago and it rained non-stop for 5 days. No one even blinked at that. Add to that its earthquake preparedness and I think the buildings will hold up just fine.


Quoting 81. LAGotNoWeather:



Many things would have to align for this system to be "devastating". Taiwan is extremely mountainous on its east side, so as long as the system doesn't track over the northern tip (Taipei) or southern tip (Kaohsiung), it shouldn't be too bad. Even if it does move a bit north or south, this island is used to extreme rainfall events. I was there just a few months ago and it rained non-stop for 5 days. No one even blinked at that. Add to that its earthquake preparedness and I think the buildings will hold up just fine.


I agree. I was last there in 2002, when Taiwan was more of a dictatorship than it is today. No one argued about evacuating when they were told to do so. I don't know if that's still the case, but Taiwan's civil defense system is well organized. Almost every public building and most hotels have designated evacuation centers for everything from a typhoon to an invasion from the PRC. It's hard to visualize all the things Taiwan has done to prepare for disasters of both the natural and military types unless you've been there and seen it in operation.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 1425 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula have become better organized during the
past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are conducive for
additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form tonight or Thursday while the low moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

2. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system during the next several days while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent
Ah, that's looking much more organized.


Quoting 23. barbamz:

Well, wasn't the monsoon expected to be considerably weaker in an El Nino year? Just wondering ...

Monsoon rain claims hundreds of live

Your memory serves you well. I've read exactly the same thing.
Quoting 32. wunderkidcayman:





Hmm I see convection has weakened on ex-94L
If continues and low level structure fails the it dies but if convection increases then it remains alive
Still has one more Dmax before it reaches the graveyard ....
Quoting 89. MAweatherboy1:

Ah, that's looking much more organized.



Yeah, it looks like the core has solidified itself for at least the time being. We'll have to see if Soudelor can mix out the remaining dry air. We'll have to watch for eyewall replacement cycles too, as those could open the core up to dry air entrainment once again. Tricky situation.
Quoting 86. sar2401:

I agree. I was last there in 2002, when Taiwan was more of a dictatorship than it is today. No one argued about evacuating when they were told to do so. I don't know if that's still the case, but Taiwan's civil defense system is well organized. Almost every public building and most hotels have designated evacuation centers for everything from a typhoon to an invasion from the PRC. It's hard to visualize all the things Taiwan has done to prepare for disasters of both the natural and military types unless you've been there and seen it in operation.


Good point about the variety of things they prep for. I actually just finished (5 min ago) teaching a group of my students who are in Taipei (I teach virtually sometimes w/ them). They were very nonchalant about the typhoon. They know it is coming, they will be in school tomorrow, and said their families are all notified w/ specific directions on what to do and where to go. Like you said Sar, very prepared Civil Defense.
Quoting 63. islander101010:

ex-94.a.future.contender?
In the EPac, sure ....

Quoting 78. sar2401:

Been five days now. 94L was dropped on Saturday. What remains of 94L might help kick off some more thunderstorms in Trinidad and Venezuela but that's about as far west as it will get. It's still firmly attached to the monsoonal trough and really has nowhere else to go. Unfortunately for the eastern Caribbean, it's not suddenly going to dash north and give them any rain.
Don't we wish....

Quoting 79. sar2401:
 
Between the persistent high temperatures and lack of rain, my garden and lawn are looking pretty sorry now.
Out here... we irrigate. Seems to help. :)

OK, I'm kidding, of course. But when the temps are over 95 here, I honey-water the tomaters twice a day. They un-nod in appreciation.
Just a couple of things:

1. We mostly go through this period of angst in the ATL because everyone seems to forget that activity really doesn't pick up until the second decade of the month; in fact, after Aug 15 is about as reasonable a date to see something form as one can expect. We were lucky to get a couple of invests already in the month ...

I do expect we'll see some activity after the midpoint of the month, though whether anything gets beyond invest status remains to be seen. Given the current setup, I'd still say our best bet for activity will be just off the African coast, where SSTs and shear are close to average, and where a vigorous Twave might stand a chance.

I do also like to remind people that Andrew was pretty much decimated by the trip from about 30 to 50 W, and didn't really get going properly until north of 20N. I say this because anyone expecting typical CV tracks or Car or even GoM tracks is likely to be surprised. Rest easy and find a cool spot. If the ATL is still this dead on 5 Oct, I might be inclined to begin thinking it's really dead .... lol ...
Quoting 98. BahaHurican:

Just a couple of things:

1. We mostly go through this period of angst in the ATL because everyone seems to forget that activity really doesn't pick up until the second decade of the month; in fact, after Aug 15 is about as reasonable a date to see something form as one can expect. We were lucky to get a couple of invests already in the month ... I do expect we'll see some activity after the midpoint of the month, though whether anything gets beyond invest status remains to be seen. Given the current setup, I'd still say our best bet for activity will be just off the African coast, where SSTs and shear are close to average, and where a vigorous Twave might stand a chance. I do also like to remind people that Andrew was pretty much decimated by the trip from about 30 to 50 W, and didn't really get going properly until north of 20N. I say this because anyone expecting typical CV tracks or Car or even GoM tracks is likely to be surprised. Rest easy and find a cool spot. If the ATL is still this dead on 5 Oct, I might be inclined to begin thinking it's really dead .... lol ...
Andrew track:


Quoting 89. MAweatherboy1:

Ah, that's looking much more organized.




Could it be strengthening again?
Quoting 100. Articuno:



Could it be strengthening again?
Likely and even expected. Steve Gregory was talking about possible cat 4 over Taiwan...
102. MahFL
This is ex 94L, right ?

Quoting 99. BahaHurican:

Andrew track:



Initially, moderate wind shear prevented strengthening, until a decrease in shear allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Andrew at 1200 UTC on August 17.[5]

By early August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h).[7] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum[8] and as the storm turned to the northwest, increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[5] On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center[9] and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (30.0 inHg).


1992 was an el nino year ... note I'm not saying we'll have another Andrew. I'm just saying the horrible conditions don't completely preclude TC development.
Quoting 79. sar2401:



High of 101 here with a low dewpoint of 71. It's down to 87 now but still with a dewpoint of 76 after some outflow winds from thunderstorms west of me. They are now beginning to collapse as we lose the heat of the day. These diurnal storms always begin to die about now. There's a trough that will enter north Alabama tomorrow and give them a decent chance of rain but it's going to wash out before it gets this far south. My last rain (0.28") was on July 28. Between the persistent high temperatures and lack of rain, my garden and lawn are looking pretty sorry now. The A/C hasn't quit running since early June.


I got about 9" of rain on Monday. Probably 30" since mid-June and this morning I drove by a condo complex in my neighborhood with the sprinkler system going full speed. Angers the hell out of me.
Quoting 102. MahFL:

This is ex 94L, right ?


Yep.... got about 6 hours to get some clothes on and drop some drops on the Lesser Antilles ....
Quoting 101. BahaHurican:

Likely and even expected. Steve Gregory was talking about possible cat 4 over Taiwan...
i know it was expected, but i didn't think it was expected to already
Quoting 104. Bucsboltsfan:



I got about 9" of rain on Monday. Probably 30" since mid-June and this morning I drove by a condo complex in my neighborhood with the sprinkler system going full speed. Angers the hell out of me.


I noticed the same thing this morning during my 5 AM run. I wanted to bang on doors and tell them to shut it off.
Quoting 106. Articuno:

i know it was expected, but i didn't think it was expected to already

Still needs to get the EWRC completely done as that should help with the dry air issues ... should see strengthening pretty much up until landfall, IMO ....
Quoting 103. BahaHurican:

Initially, moderate wind shear prevented strengthening, until a decrease in shear allowed the depression to intensify into Tropical Storm Andrew at 1200 UTC on August 17.[5]

By early August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h).[7] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum[8] and as the storm turned to the northwest, increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[5] On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center[9] and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (30.0 inHg).


1992 was an el nino year ... note I'm not saying we'll have another Andrew. I'm just saying the horrible conditions don't completely preclude TC development.
Also taking a quick look at the archives, 1972, 1977 had few storms and none out of the MDR. Even climatology suggests what to expect ...


I have a bad feeling about Soudelor...
Quoting 110. Envoirment:



I have a bad feeling about Soudelor...
It's definitely not done yet ...
Yikes I almost thought Ex-94L was a goner but just in the nick of time convection started to refire over the LLCOC now it needs to expand on that and hopefully cover fully before it reaches the E Caribbean dead zone
Quoting 93. BahaHurican:

Still has one more Dmax before it reaches the graveyard ....

I know it is farfetched, but I would really have a good laugh if ex94L at least made it to TD or low end TS status!
I think Barbados might get a shower or 2 from ex94L
Quoting 111. BahaHurican:

It's definitely not done yet ...


I would not be surprised if it became a category 5 again. It seems to be mixing out the dry air quite easily now its core has finally stabilised/solidified. Not to mention it'll be over warmer waters with increasing ocean heat content along its track. Will be interesting to see what it's like when I wake up.

Still appears to have a LLC
Quoting 113. stormpetrol:


I know it is farfetched, but I would really have a good laugh if ex94L at least made it to TD or low end TS status!


Nah ex-94L becoming TD could be possible % is low at this time but possible it becoming TS maybe be far fetched but it indeed would be nice to see

Quoting 114. stormpetrol:

I think Barbados might get a shower or 2 from ex94L


Hmm might even get more than one or two showers we need to wait and see

Quoting 116. stormpetrol:





Hmm
Quoting 111. BahaHurican:

It's definitely not done yet ...
Everyone is saying how Souledor will become a low-end Cat. 4 at most. I would not be surprised for it to become a Super Typhoon again and gain Cat 5 status. It looks to be organizing again, and building high altitude thunderstorms around its eye again, and is solving the dry air issues. Late tomorrow it will move into warmer waters and get even stronger. People in Taiwan better get ready!
Hello all..

Didnt read back but has there been any discussion of the Low coming off the NC coast..is it tropical? Looks like there is model agreement on this but disagreement on exactly where in NC/SE VA...within 72 hours..

18z NAM





123. MahFL
Ex 94L has only 5 kts of shear over it, can't get much lower than that.


i do not think so!!
125. MahFL
Ex 94L is though pushing up against some rally dry air, at least at the upper levels.


Yikes look buy HI and i see 2 other name storms for the E PAC







all so the GFS has not droped this idea not one little bit of a strong hurricane fourming in the E PAC and that starts by AUGS 15th



then the GFS has other storm fourming around the 384 area


pluse we got 92E wish is this about ready too be a TD and then soon too be 93E so the E PAC is really on fire
Quoting 126. Tazmanian:


Yikes look buy HI and i see 2 other name storms for the E PAC







all so the GFS has not droped this idea not one little bit of a strong hurricane fourming in the E PAC and that starts by AUGS 15th



then the GFS has other storm fourming around the 384 area


pluse we got 92E wish is this about ready too be a TD and then soon too be 93E so the E PAC is really on fire




this is to far out maybe a tropical storm in few weeks from now
129. vis0

Quoting 36. juracanpr1:

Government in PR plan use cloud seeding technology to improve the water collection at several the hydrologic basins. Some called experts from UPR (University of Puerto Rico) will supervise the procedure and collect data for there months at the expense of more than $60000/month. The "scientists" in charge are really they are NOT experts. This is just a desperate and ridiculous attempt from the Government to occult his top incompetence to solve the water crisis. More than 60 % of potable water is lost through the obsolete system of distribution. According to the information (Endi.com) the seeding substances will be CaCl2 and AgI. DANGER, specially from AgI...
What they need is Nu Yorican "vis0" to visit his parents Puerto Rican home in Agaudilla,PR, Barrio Guerrero, sector Munez and bring the ml-d...again search January 2010 thru early/mid -Feb 2010 THEN  May ~14th thru early June 2010 (an ml-d made of natural substances was set near Ponce i think survived till mid July 2010 so after i left some more rain should have fallen till the natural ml-d decomposed...

Why are these dates important? search the rain records and see how there where deluges in PR during the usually dry month of Jan. So much rain,  that Jan 2010(Feb) entered top 20 moths as to rainfall records while being the only top 50 record month in rainfall, WITHOUT a TS...MAJEEK!


Sad thing is Native Indians had this knowledge, study the American Indians headdress (feathers) its design is to take the body's energy (custom design for each persons height) and blend it into what i call the Galacsics dimension of energies so that drum beats and ones heart beat when meditating can open natural windows to influence nature...reads as zilly? well many yrs from now watch whom laffs i do not laff at others only at my 'looks.'

When you look at my "treebreeze" VIDs study how certain tree types/shapes, bark roughness, roundness of stump, sap viscosity inside,  causes more of a breeze reaction as i (ml-d) gets closer.

THINK if you have community invest in planting certain trees WITHIN their community and a few miles around it while allocating lots/land/forest areas to plant other types of trees tornadoes will become more attracted towards those type of trees that allow unencumbered up flows while the type of trees near &* within communities will cause a sort of chaotic up flow/intake into storms/clouds retarding the growth of STRONGER storms NOT STOPPING them just creating 5 F1-2s instead of 2 F4+s tornadoes.  Again one does not want to force natures hand to dance just as her to dance to your NATURAL tune. shes a lady whoa whoa whoa  she's a lady.

***this was all on my now deleted 250 blogbytes, so the public is out of luck (that's what happen when one ignores people) but WxU admin can search servers.
Quoting 125. MahFL:

Ex 94L is though pushing up against some rally dry air, at least at the upper levels.



Its been a fighter despite adverse conditions that I will say!
18z run

Typhoon Soudelor (Left) and the future Tropical Storm Molave (Right):



Source: NOAA

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 129.8W
ABOUT 1490 MI...2400 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Quoting 127. hurricanes2018:







why did you show me this i am not tracking storms in the Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico this year am tracking olny the E W and C PAC storms this year may be next year if we get a strong LA NINO so dont be quote me with a molde run of Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of Mexico thanks
i wounder if CA will see any lift over moister from this storm seems like ever few storms CA has been getting some in

easy Taz your not the only Blogger on Dr Masters Blog ..
Quoting 130. stormpetrol:


Its been a fighter despite adverse conditions that I will say!

94L just may rally off the ropes. A fighter indeed. Danny-to-be dominant LLCOC is plowing on west. This one's fighting down to the very last pixel of doom.
Hey guys how are you. I see we might have development off the East Coast.
Ex-94L starting to pop some decent convection
Despite the dry air
It does have some light 5kt shear
And it's starting to enter warmer SSTs
The Navgem Ensembles keep showing off and on (not sure if ex 94L) making a beeline to US coastline..

This 12z run it shows Florida and GOM..

You all have a good evening..





Quoting 128. hurricanes2018:



this is to far out maybe a tropical storm in few weeks from now
The same cyclone being push back on every run to 384hours.
Pinhole eye is back.

Quoting 143. wunderkidcayman:

Ex-94L starting to pop some decent convection
Despite the dry air
It does have some light 5kt shear
And it's starting to enter warmer SSTs
I'm hoping for some rain here from ex 94l.
Quoting 146. unknowncomic:

Pinhole eye is back.


That's not a pinhole eye.
149. JLPR2
Hmm... if it weren't for the dry air this little one would be Danny right now. Seems to have a pinch of northern movement, should miss Barbados to the north by a hair and I highly doubt I'll see anything from it, it should stay to the south of PR.
Bummer... :(

Quoting 145. Gearsts:

The same cyclone being push back on every run to 384hours.
They saw it first syndrome...
152. SLU
Quoting 149. JLPR2:

Hmm... if it weren't for the dry air this little one would be Danny right now. Seems to have a pinch of northern movement, should miss Barbados to the north by a hair and I highly doubt I'll see anything from it, it should stay to the south of PR.
Bummer... :(




In this take-it-or-leave-it kind of a year i'm glad there's even a blob to track :)
X94L/AOI/XX

13W/TY/S
Quoting 16. JohnLonergan:

The View From Goresat




Now can anyone identify when that picture was taken? It had to have been during the new moon when the Moon passed between the Sun and the Earth. I speculate that the tight swirl off the tip of Baja California might be Dolores.
Quoting 149. JLPR2:

Hmm... if it weren't for the dry air this little one would be Danny right now. Seems to have a pinch of northern movement, should miss Barbados to the north by a hair and I highly doubt I'll see anything from it, it should stay to the south of PR.
Bummer... :(




Tonight it's doing very very good despite the dry air
If this continues overnight and this deep ball of convection spreads over the whole LLC area and is being sustained through the morning we could see an official comback of 94L

Barbados radar will be handy tomorrow

Let's see what happens
Quoting 144. ncstorm:

The Navgem Ensembles keep showing off and on (not sure if ex 94L) making a beeline to US coastline..

This 12z run it shows Florida and GOM..

You all have a good evening..








Well, that would be something that hasn't happened in a LONG time.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #4
TYPHOON HANNA
11:00 AM PhST August 6 2015
======================
Typhoon “HANNA” has slightly weakened as it continues to move towards Batanes area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Hanna [SOUDELOR] (954 hPa) located at 20.6N 129.9E or 825 km east of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warnings #1
Very light or no damage to high risk structures.
Light damage to medium to low risk structures.
Slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities. Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged.
Twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 1.25-4.0 meters


Luzon Region
========
1. Batanes province including Itbayat
2. Calayan
3. Babuyan group of islands

Additional Information
===============
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 700 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fisher folk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Palawan, Visayas and Mindanao.

Southwest Monsoon is affecting Palawan, Bicol Region, Visayas and Mindanao. Residents in low lying and mountainous areas are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Quoting 154. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

X94L/AOI/XX




Yay thanks KOTG for the floater on Ex-94L

I'd say if this continues overnight and in the morning the I'd expect an official comeback of 94L

My question is if it was to comeback would it retain 94L status or will it be retagged as 96L
I would think it stays at 94L
Quoting 158. HurrMichaelOrl:



Well, that would be something that hasn't happened in a LONG time.


Frances was the first to come to mind. Generally, steering patterns have favored a curve out to sea or along the US Eastern Seaboard (see: Sandy, Irene, Earl) or a direct westward path into the Caribbean. At least as of late. We'll see if a consensus is formed on this one

(Disregard: Double post)
Quoting 158. HurrMichaelOrl:



Well, that would be something that hasn't happened in a LONG time.


If I recall correctly, Frances pulled a similar westward track that was neither a curve out to sea/parraleling the US Eastern Seaboard nor a direct path into/through the Caribbean. Typically, steering patterns don't favor such a path but this season sure has been an odd one. We'll see if a consensus is set.
Quoting 58. pablosyn:

In plenty middle of the Winter, the Argentina could reach more than 40�C/104F this weekend in a very unusual heat wave. The Argentina won't be the only place striked by this heat wave, Paraguay, Uruguay and South Brazil also will be striked. The Metropolitan Area of Porto Alegre (Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil) and the other areas could reach more than 35�C this weekend.





The Jet stream pattern and a strong high pressure over Brazil will block all fronts and cold air masses. With this block, torrencial rain event (floods and severe thunderstorm) will affect the area between Uruguay and Argentina:




And Chile and Argentina, a winter storm will strike the Andes will torrencial rain and heavy snow (in areas of desert).


The Severe Thunderstorms can be accompanied by tornadoes in Argentina, in the provinces of C�rdoba, Santa F�, Entre Rios e Buenos Aires.




Brownsville TX reached its station record highest temperature in late MARCH 1984. The sun was still seasonally weak but early spring dynamics made for sinking and downsloping off the mountains to the west and compensated for the weaker sun. Station record highs don't always happen in the hemisphere's summer and these points in South America are in the deep subtropics or upper tropics.

In DC metro 38N April can generate as intense heat as May because the trees are still not leafed out and all insolation with a hot air mass goes into sensible heating rather than some evaporating water from leaves. But we are too far north to ever get intense winter heat although a temperature of 29C (84F) was
observed once in February. The only months that have never reached 80F are December and January (79F is the record for both and one of the 79F days happened during a four day warm wave in Dec 1998 when every day reached over 70F) Richmond VA 100 miles south has reached 80F every month of the year.
Yawn...enough with these WPAC Typhoons getting tired of seeing them. I want to see some Atlantic hurricanes now. I know this may sound blunt, but it just gets boring watching the same thing over and over again. Not wishing harm, death, or destruction on anyone, but maybe for once we can get a long track Cape-Verde that makes landfall in the US as a Category 1 even if it is just to mix things up and get back to normal for once. I would like an opportunity to chase a storm too and I'm sure there are plenty of stormchasers who share the same belief as well. 10 years is just too damn long for a hurricane not to have hit the state of FL. I'm sorry, but this is just insanity, it's not normal, and anyone who says so is fooling you. And no I don't just blame El-Nino or Global Warming for this, there has been a lot more factors as to why the Atlantic isn't producing healthy hurricanes in recent years or for the seasons that did produce them, 2010 and 2011 they recurved out to sea. Changes in the oscillations, ocean currents, and global wind circulations like the Walker circulations are probably some of the factors. But on more regional scale factors like the SAL, position of the Bermuda High, and East Coast trough. I suppose maybe we are in a similar pattern to what we saw in the 70s or 80s. But as a meteorology community and researchers in the field, it will be our duty to not point to one factor, but zoom out and look at it from a global perspective and look at how the weather is behaving in other countries and how that compares to normal, then look at the factors that may be causing the weather to be extreme one way or the other. Very interesting times ahead if you are going to become a Meteorologist, especially with advances in technology, more computer power and computer models, but it will still be important to relay the information from the human forecasting perspective.
I haven't been posting here as much as I used to and I figured now may be the right time to break through as this season may have come to a standstill (or in a pessimist's words, a bust)... Do you think these adverse conditions will persist, because with El Nino settlin' in, I won't be surprised if it does.
Quoting 161. wunderkidcayman:



Yay thanks KOTG for the floater on Ex-94L

I'd say if this continues overnight and in the morning the I'd expect an official comeback of 94L

My question is if it was to comeback would it retain 94L status or will it be retagged as 96L
I would think it stays at 94L
But then when we see this...
Quoting 165. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yawn...enough with these WPAC Typhoons getting tired of seeing them. I want to see some Atlantic hurricanes now. I know this may sound blunt, but it just gets boring watching the same thing over and over again. Not wishing harm, death, or destruction on anyone, but maybe for once we can get a long track Cape-Verde that makes landfall in the US as a Category 1 even if it is just to mix things up and get back to normal for once. I would like an opportunity to chase a storm too and I'm sure there are plenty of stormchasers who share the same belief as well. 10 years is just too damn long for a hurricane not to have hit the state of FL. I'm sorry, but this is just insanity, it's not normal, and anyone who says so is fooling you. And no I don't just blame El-Nino or Global Warming for this, there has been a lot more factors as to why the Atlantic isn't producing healthy hurricanes in recent years or for the seasons that did produce them, 2010 and 2011 they recurved out to sea. Changes in the oscillations, ocean currents, and global wind circulations like the Walker circulations are probably some of the factors. But on more regional scale factors like the SAL, position of the Bermuda High, and East Coast trough. I suppose maybe we are in a similar pattern to what we saw in the 70s or 80s. But as a meteorology community and researchers in the field, it will be our duty to not point to one factor, but zoom out and look at it from a global perspective and look at how the weather is behaving in other countries and how that compares to normal, then look at the factors that may be causing the weather to be extreme one way or the other. Very interesting times ahead if you are going to become a Meteorologist, especially with advances in technology, more computer power and computer models, but it will still be important to relay the information from the human forecasting perspective.


I share those exact sentiments. That's why I have diverted my attention from tropical weather momentarily, and I am now training my focus on other related sciences, politics, etc, etc... But I'm no expert in either, so...
Quoting 165. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yawn...enough with these WPAC Typhoons getting tired of seeing them. I want to see some Atlantic hurricanes now. I know this may sound blunt, but it just gets boring watching the same thing over and over again. Not wishing harm, death, or destruction on anyone, but maybe for once we can get a long track Cape-Verde that makes landfall in the US as a Category 1 even if it is just to mix things up and get back to normal for once. I would like an opportunity to chase a storm too and I'm sure there are plenty of stormchasers who share the same belief as well. 10 years is just too damn long for a hurricane not to have hit the state of FL. I'm sorry, but this is just insanity, it's not normal, and anyone who says so is fooling you. And no I don't just blame El-Nino or Global Warming for this, there has been a lot more factors as to why the Atlantic isn't producing healthy hurricanes in recent years or for the seasons that did produce them, 2010 and 2011 they recurved out to sea. Changes in the oscillations, ocean currents, and global wind circulations like the Walker circulations are probably some of the factors. But on more regional scale factors like the SAL, position of the Bermuda High, and East Coast trough. I suppose maybe we are in a similar pattern to what we saw in the 70s or 80s. But as a meteorology community and researchers in the field, it will be our duty to not point to one factor, but zoom out and look at it from a global perspective and look at how the weather is behaving in other countries and how that compares to normal, then look at the factors that may be causing the weather to be extreme one way or the other. Very interesting times ahead if you are going to become a Meteorologist, especially with advances in technology, more computer power and computer models, but it will still be important to relay the information from the human forecasting perspective.


I feel ya, hold on
Quoting 163. hurricaneben:



If I recall correctly, Frances pulled a similar westward track that was neither a curve out to sea/parraleling the US Eastern Seaboard nor a direct path into/through the Caribbean. Typically, steering patterns don't favor such a path but this season sure has been an odd one. We'll see if a consensus is set.

Discounting tropical rain storm Bonnie in 2010, I think Katrina was the last tropical cyclone to hit the FL E Coast from a traditional Atlantic track. There was Fay in 2008 (which was a fun experience), but it came from the Caribbean and GOM, though it technically did emerge into the Atlantic then hit the E Coast as a TS. Then there was Beryl in 2012, but that was a more of a home grown spin-up that happened to come W/SW towards Florida (most don't). We are definitely due for an East Coast hit from something.
Quoting 167. Gearsts:

But then when we see this...



Welcome to the "thunderdome"....
Quoting 165. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yawn...enough with these WPAC Typhoons getting tired of seeing them. I want to see some Atlantic hurricanes now. I know this may sound blunt, but it just gets boring watching the same thing over and over again. Not wishing harm, death, or destruction on anyone, but maybe for once we can get a long track Cape-Verde that makes landfall in the US as a Category 1 even if it is just to mix things up and get back to normal for once. I would like an opportunity to chase a storm too and I'm sure there are plenty of stormchasers who share the same belief as well. 10 years is just too damn long for a hurricane not to have hit the state of FL. I'm sorry, but this is just insanity, it's not normal, and anyone who says so is fooling you. And no I don't just blame El-Nino or Global Warming for this, there has been a lot more factors as to why the Atlantic isn't producing healthy hurricanes in recent years or for the seasons that did produce them, 2010 and 2011 they recurved out to sea. Changes in the oscillations, ocean currents, and global wind circulations like the Walker circulations are probably some of the factors. But on more regional scale factors like the SAL, position of the Bermuda High, and East Coast trough. I suppose maybe we are in a similar pattern to what we saw in the 70s or 80s. But as a meteorology community and researchers in the field, it will be our duty to not point to one factor, but zoom out and look at it from a global perspective and look at how the weather is behaving in other countries and how that compares to normal, then look at the factors that may be causing the weather to be extreme one way or the other. Very interesting times ahead if you are going to become a Meteorologist, especially with advances in technology, more computer power and computer models, but it will still be important to relay the information from the human forecasting perspective.


I agree.
Quoting 170. HurrMichaelOrl:


Discounting tropical rain storm Bonnie in 2010, I think Katrina was the last tropical cyclone to hit the FL E Coast from a traditional Atlantic track. There was Fay in 2008 (which was a fun experience), but it came from the Caribbean and GOM, though it technically did emerge into the Atlantic then hit the E Coast as a TS. Then there was Beryl in 2012, but that was a more of a home grown spin-up that happened to come W/SW towards Florida (most don't). We are definitely due for an East Coast hit from something.


It's called repression of nature, mother nature is repressing itself from traditional occurrences and what happens is the next time a system does follow that traditional westward track that Katrina, Frances and so many others before it pulled off (Andrew as well), it will probably set a precedent for others to follow the same trend. Like Gustav and Ike, Ivan and Dennis.
And this applies to the seismic world too. The more long overdue fault lines are repressed, common logic, the more powerful the next major strike will be. I feel for those who haven't taken necessary precautions for such disasters to unfold in their neck of the woods, I know a few myself here in SE Fla who might be in for a heckuva rude awakening.
Quoting 170. HurrMichaelOrl:


Discounting tropical rain storm Bonnie in 2010, I think Katrina was the last tropical cyclone to hit the FL E Coast from a traditional Atlantic track. There was Fay in 2008 (which was a fun experience), but it came from the Caribbean and GOM, though it technically did emerge into the Atlantic then hit the E Coast as a TS. Then there was Beryl in 2012, but that was a more of a home grown spin-up that happened to come W/SW towards Florida (most don't). We are definitely due for an East Coast hit from something.


And I'm taking precautions but not nearly as much as I should in such a scenario
Ex-94L LLCOC current estimated LLCOC location is near 12.9N 52.5W or 416.6 (nautical miles) to the E (92°) of Barbados

Quoting 167. Gearsts:

But then when we see this...



But then when I see this I see that ex-94L are beating the odds look at the water vapour loop you can see as the convection increases it pushes away the dry air while doing so anyway we wait and watch overnight and into morning seeing how well it handles overnight and morning will determine what happen to it
Soudelor decently shielded from dry air for now, but it could have trouble re-strengthening if a giant eyewall develops from those outer bands.



Quoting 157. wunderkidcayman:



Tonight it's doing very very good despite the dry air
If this continues overnight and this deep ball of convection spreads over the whole LLC area and is being sustained through the morning we could see an official comback of 94L

Barbados radar will be handy tomorrow

Let's see what happens


Unfortunately our radar is down. I was hoping this would come over us but it looks (as usual with most systems) to be going just to our north... :(

Close enough to hope, far enough to disappoint.
Quoting 173. hurricaneben:



It's called repression of nature, mother nature is repressing itself from traditional occurrences and what happens is the next time a system does follow that traditional westward track that Katrina, Frances and so many others before it pulled off (Andrew as well), it will probably set a precedent for others to follow the same trend. Like Gustav and Ike, Ivan and Dennis.
And this applies to the seismic world too. The more long overdue fault lines are repressed, common logic, the more powerful the next major strike will be. I feel for those who haven't taken necessary precautions for such disasters to unfold in their neck of the woods, I know a few myself here in SE Fla who might be in for a heckuva rude awakening.


moved here to surfside beach, tx this past january and the girl that helped me move in said "i've lived here all of my life and have never seen anyone with totes labeled 'hurricane supplies'" Blew....my...mind..
Quoting 95. LAGotNoWeather:



Good point about the variety of things they prep for. I actually just finished (5 min ago) teaching a group of my students who are in Taipei (I teach virtually sometimes w/ them). They were very nonchalant about the typhoon. They know it is coming, they will be in school tomorrow, and said their families are all notified w/ specific directions on what to do and where to go. Like you said Sar, very prepared Civil Defense.
And they'll all be going to school or work when the typhoon makes landfall. There's no concept of a "weather day" in Taiwan. As long as the power remains on, they'll do what they do every day. If civil defense tells them to go to a shelter, they will. Otherwise, it's just another windy, rainy day in Taiwan. They have been preparing for an invasion from China since 1949, and I think Taiwan averages about three typhoons a year, so everyone is pretty dialed in on emergency procedures.
180. MahFL
Ex 94L looking reasonable:

Quoting 177. LemieT:



Unfortunately our radar is down. I was hoping this would come over us but it looks (as usual with most systems) to be going just to our north... :(

Close enough to hope, far enough to disappoint.


Aww that sucks

Hey don't count it out yet it is moving W and if it continues it could pass directly over the North side of Barbados

Anyway as I said wait and see I know you guys need the rain as much as us if not more so just hope for the best
Quoting 175. wunderkidcayman:

Ex-94L LLCOC current estimated LLCOC location is near 12.9N 52.5W or 416.6 (nautical miles) to the E (92°) of Barbados



But then when I see this I see that ex-94L are beating the odds look at the water vapour loop you can see as the convection increases it pushes away the dry air while doing so anyway we wait and watch overnight and into morning seeing how well it handles overnight and morning will determine what happen to it
Watch what's happening to the convection out in front of ex-94L. That low is not pushing dry air away, it's being drawn into the circulation. We can expect to see some convective blowups with a weak low like this but there's nowhere near enough organization for this to become a TD or TS. We have now been watching and waiting since last Saturday. It doesn't seem likely that one more night is going to make a huge difference.

Quoting 13. PedleyCA:

     
 

      This is from Guillerrmo, My brother up East of S.F. said his high was 81 yesterday, instead of low nineties. This is North of me and is working its way down here for tomorrow, hence the forecast cool down.



It was pretty nice by us, too. And 40% or 50% chance of precip on Friday.
Quoting 180. MahFL:

Ex 94L looking reasonable:




Yes quite reasonable

With it moving into warmer SSTs and 5kts shear environment
Also looking at water vapour more so MIMMIC TPW moisture building around its immediate area
It should be watched
Quoting 182. sar2401:

Watch what's happening to the convection out in front of ex-94L. That low is not pushing dry air away, it's being drawn into the circulation. We can expect to see some convective blowups with a weak low like this but there's nowhere near enough organization for this to become a TD or TS. We have now been watching and waiting since last Saturday. It doesn't seem likely that one more night is going to make a huge difference.




I sorta see what you seeing but I have to disagree I don't think that dry air is being drawn in
I do think we will see more blow ups to add to the current one I do think we may get just enough organisation for this to become back to invest maybe TD hell it ain't gonna be pretty it just may win ugliest system but it just may make it

Yes we've been watching since Sat but condition were not as good as they are now now having said that current conditions are not perfect but it just may do it

Before time it had more dry air more SAL more shear and less SSTs
Now it has a little less dry air little to no SAL 5kts or less shear and increasing SSTs

I would honestly have to say the chances of this developing is a lot higher than what it was a couple days ago IMHHO
Quoting 185. wunderkidcayman:



I sorta see what you seeing but I have to disagree I don't think that dry air is being drawn in
I do think we will see more blow ups to add to the current one I do think we may get just enough organisation for this to become back to invest maybe TD hell it ain't gonna be pretty it just may win ugliest system but it just may make it

Yes we've been watching since Sat but condition were not as good as they are now now having said that current conditions are not perfect but it just may do it

Before time it had more dry air more SAL more shear and less SSTs
Now it has a little less dry air little to no SAL 5kts or less shear and increasing SSTs

I would honestly have to say the chances of this developing is a lot higher than what it was a couple days ago IMHHO
But shear is forecast to increase ahead of little blob 94.
Quoting 180. MahFL:

Ex 94L looking reasonable:


"dat's atmo 2.0....now with 10% added water vapor!
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach Aug 4
July Caribbean shear in 2015 5 m/s stronger than any other year on record since 1979.
In case there was any doubt.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 186. Gearsts:

But shear is forecast to increase ahead of little blob 94.


Hmm lets see currently low 5-10kts shear from where ex-94L is currently all the way to 70W/75W over the next 48hrs that extends to 80W/85W but that only to S of 18N/19N after that slowly yeah maybe at this point I'll wait when 48hrs come

Quoting 187. CosmicEvents:

"dat's atmo 2.0....now with 10% added water vapor!


Huh

Nothing on TWO no suprise there
Quoting 180. MahFL:

Ex 94L looking reasonable:





You know it's a bland season when this looks reasonable ;)
Quoting 173. hurricaneben:



It's called repression of nature, mother nature is repressing itself from traditional occurrences and what happens is the next time a system does follow that traditional westward track that Katrina, Frances and so many others before it pulled off (Andrew as well), it will probably set a precedent for others to follow the same trend. Like Gustav and Ike, Ivan and Dennis.
And this applies to the seismic world too. The more long overdue fault lines are repressed, common logic, the more powerful the next major strike will be. I feel for those who haven't taken necessary precautions for such disasters to unfold in their neck of the woods, I know a few myself here in SE Fla who might be in for a heckuva rude awakening.

Long time no see you Ben.
We can look at hurricane preparedness from the point of view of domestic security.
You can put on your house strong doors and bars on the windows, install security systems and have a neighbourhood watch system in place.
After a long time, nobody gets broken into and people say there is/was no real threat of it!
This is human activity to protect against human activity.

With the hurricane threat its different, as nothing people can do is going to affect the place of a landfall.
The longer the time span from a landfall to the now, the more complacent people become, saying its a thing of the past.
Looking at it logically, given the topography of a lot of the land around the GOM along with the coastal buildings and infrastructure, its not a matter of damage limitation but of how much damage will be caused by the next big hurricane strike?
The more time that elapses, the more complacent people will become.
I can not avoid thinking that the next major hurricane strike to the GOM will be so bad that it will change the attitudes of the people there permanently.
To me looking at the GOM coastal areas I think that living there unprepared for a hurricane strike is like holding a party on thin ice. The whole area is a bit like Pompeii in Italy being built near a volcano.

Every year that passes without a hurricane stick is a huge relief but there should never be a time when it becomes assumed that hurricanes are a thing of the past in the GOM area.
Here is a general heat chart fro the area around Taiwan of Saturday afternoon, probably about the time of landfall for Soudelor.
The whole area is very warm, I don't think we will have to wait very much longer for the formation of the next system after this one.
Although the Taiwan people may be used to cyclones this one might be an eye opener with the amounts of rainfall it may deliver.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
Gale Warning
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14
15:00 PM JST August 6 2015
=========================
Near Mariana Islands

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.9N 149.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 20.3N 148.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Minamitori-shima waters
196. vis0
image host
and for the close2home Orthodox view(passed through my funktopGal filter15)::
image host

a picture is worth 2 GFs ghost storms, redeem their value at TS season's end at El Nino's tree house...i hear it has a refrigerator with snow cone

capabilities towards the east coast (yahoooooooooooooooooo...sit down washi115...nothing is written in stone...STS!?!!!, stop carving "El Nino was here" in that stone)
Quoting 176. 1900hurricane:

Soudelor decently shielded from dry air for now, but it could have trouble re-strengthening if a giant eyewall develops from those outer bands.

Doesn't seem to have too much trouble right now.
Quoting 165. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Yawn...
But as a meteorology community and researchers in the field, it will be our duty to not point to one factor, but zoom out and look at it from a global perspective and look at how the weather is behaving in other countries and how that compares to normal, then look at the factors that may be causing the weather to be extreme one way or the other. Very interesting times ahead if you are going to become a Meteorologist, especially with advances in technology, more computer power and computer models, but it will still be important to relay the information from the human forecasting perspective.

Hey GT..
I was checking out your post and went to your bio page to see if you had updated it to include what kind of research you may be into and ...
Nothing..
I hope you may consider doing that as some here are interested in folks, and I would have much more to comment on to you if you had a bio..
It would be helpful..
Just a suggestion by me.. :)
And I do agree..
Very interesting time to be alive and paying attention to our world as we understand it..
:)
Tropical Depression TEN-E

2:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2015
Location: 12.5°N 130.8°W
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

Dry mid- to upper-level air from the south has wrapped into the
circulation and now surrounds the inner core, having completely cut
off and weakened the convective band in the northern semicircle.
However, a small concentration of deep convection has persisted
near and to the west of the well-defined low-level center as noted
in recent passive microwave satellite imagery. Dvorak satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB,
and a partial ASCAT-B overpass around 0552 UTC indicated 27-kt
surface winds in the convection just west of the center. Therefore,
the initial intensity remains at 30 kt for this advisory.

The motion continues to be 270/10 kt. The depression is forecast
to maintain a general westward motion for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by 72 hours as the
cyclone reaches the southwestern periphery of the deep-layer
subtropical ridge located to its north. Most of the 0000 UTC global
models, especially the GFS and ECMWF, have backed off somewhat on
developing a large break in the ridge to the northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands by days 4 and 5. This has resulted in a significant
westward and southward shift of the guidance envelope. The official
forecast track follows suit and has been shifted to the left of the
previous advisory track after 72 hours, but not nearly as far left
as the GFS-ECMWF model consensus. I would prefer to see a couple of
more model runs before making such a large shift in the forecast
track, in case this is a diurnal fluctuation for only one cycle.

The cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters of at least 28C
for the next 72 hours, and in a low-shear environment of 5-10 kt for
the next 96 hours. These favorable factors would normally result in
significant strengthening. Although proximity to the aforementioned
dry air will likely inhibit and disrupt the normal intensification
process, the cyclone is still forecast to achieve hurricane status
by day 4. Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected
to impinge on the system by day 5, resulting in steady weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the intensity consensus
model IVCN.


Westerly vertical wind shear of at least 20 kt is expected
to impinge on the system by day 5,
1979?ex94?///td..now
Quoting 86. sar2401:

I agree. I was last there in 2002, when Taiwan was more of a dictatorship than it is today. No one argued about evacuating when they were told to do so. I don't know if that's still the case, but Taiwan's civil defense system is well organized. Almost every public building and most hotels have designated evacuation centers for everything from a typhoon to an invasion from the PRC. It's hard to visualize all the things Taiwan has done to prepare for disasters of both the natural and military types unless you've been there and seen it in operation.

Weather had been very extreme in Taiwan this year. Southern parts had been in a very serious drought this spring with hard water rationing in place. I've just looked it up when it has been lifted (in June: see below). Sure they'll have to handle the opposite problem with Soudelor very soon :-o

Water rationing lifted as seasonal rain relieves Taiwan drought
CNA 2015-06-09
The worst drought to hit Taiwan in decades is finally over thanks to the seasonal plum rains, which have freed all cities and counties in the country from water rationing restrictions. ...
Quoting 121. Camerooski:

Everyone is saying how Souledor will become a low-end Cat. 4 at most. I would not be surprised for it to become a Super Typhoon again and gain Cat 5 status. It looks to be organizing again, and building high altitude thunderstorms around its eye again, and is solving the dry air issues. Late tomorrow it will move into warmer waters and get even stronger. People in Taiwan better get ready!

Reading back over some of the comments last night about Taiwan being used to typhoons and other disasters, hence having a good infrastructure and shelters.
Well! With something like this I am not too sure.
The most rain I ever saw in a single session was about 10 inches in about 8 hours. The next day I walked down what was left of a road by a river and was amazed to see the woods and fields gone. Only boulders remained with a strong stream running over them.
I think that a lot of rain will come with this system.
8am///FARTHER SOUTH...A 1012
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N53W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A
And here your hot morning read with some mixed news from all over the world:


Temperature anomalies for Friday.


European max temps.


EUROPE POWER-Spot broadly steady, higher use offset by supply

Wed Aug 5, 2015 12:50pm GMT
FRANKFURT, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Rising temperatures supported European spot power prices on Wednesday as the region prepared for another heatwave set to peak on Friday although more thermal and renewable supply curbed price rises.
"Consumers are switching on their air conditioning and electric fans. On Friday, the temperatures will go to the high 30s," one trader said. ...


At least 100 drown in Turkey as nation gripped by summer heatwaves
August 5, 2015
Doctors are warning heatwave-stricken Istanbulites to be careful while swimming as a spate of drownings makes headlines in Turkey.
Thousands of people in Istanbul have been flocking to coastal spots to escape some extremely hot weather, which has seen temperatures reach a scorching 40C (104 Fahrenheit), according to meteorology officials.
However, at least 100 people have drowned across the country in the last three weeks in lakes, pools, and at sea while trying to cool off. ...


Heatwave in Cyprus prompts ministry to impose work ban
Scorching temperatures prompt the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Labor in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to impose a four day work-ban, to be observed between noon and 04:00 pm local time starting next week, according to press reports on Wednesday.

Spanish heatwave claims ANOTHER victim, aged 36, as temperatures soar to blistering 41C
21:05, 5 August 2015

France set for record wheat crop despite hot, dry spell: Analysts
By Reuters | 5 Aug, 2015, 10.57PM IST
PARIS: France is heading for a record wheat crop this year after strong yields during harvesting showed little effect from a hot, dry start to summer, analysts said on Wednesday. ...

Well, I wonder what's true. Yesterday I've found these quite opposite news (and the persistent lack of rain in central and southern parts of Germany is staggering!):
French Corn Fried by Heat Wave Signals Plunging European Harvest
by Rudy Ruitenberg, August 5, 2015 - 12:01 AM CEST

Horrifying giant swarm containing MILLIONS of locusts sparks state of emergency in southern Russia as crops are decimated
DM, August 5, 2015
A horrifying swarm made up of millions of locusts the size of 'small sparrows' have decimated crops across southern Russia as farmers look on helplessly.
The swarm - the worst invasion in years - has already eaten its way through huge swathes of the corn fields in the Stavropol region, and have now turned their attention to 'other sources' of food.
Authorities are now desperately treating some 90,000 hectares of farmland with pesticides - but their efforts are being thwarted by high temperatures, decreasing the poison's effectiveness. ...


Shutdown Of Iraqi Health Facilities Leaves Millions Without Care
August 06, 2015
Health programs in Iraq are facing drastic cuts in the face of severe funding shortages, the World Health Organization said, leaving people exposed to diseases amid searing summer temperatures.
Almost 3 million people will have no access to urgently needed services because 84 percent of the country's donor-funded health programs were shut down last month, WHO said August 4. ...


Heatwave warnings issued for most of Korea
Updated: 2015-08-06 09:19:23 KST

Tokyo Endures Longest Heat Wave Ever Recorded; Death Toll Surges to 55 in Japan
TWC, By Nick Wiltgen, Published Aug 6 2015 12:04 AM EDT
Quoting 207. islander101010:

8am///FARTHER SOUTH...A 1012
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N53W SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W. A



Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion


000
AXNT20 KNHC 061036
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU AUG 06 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN W ATLC SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW
PRESSURE OVER N COLOMBIA WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W THROUGH 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. SEAS
OF 10 TO 16 FT CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE WARNED AREA. SEE THE
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN EASTERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE HAS AN AXIS FROM 17N36W TO
10N33W...MOVING W AT AROUND 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH AN INVERTED 700 MB TROUGH BETWEEN 30W AND
38W. MODERATE MOISTURE IS N OF 12N WITH HIGH MOISTURE S OF 12N.
NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE.
Soudelor...

Quoting 208. barbamz:

And here your hot morning read with some mixed news from all over the world:France is heading for a record wheat crop this year after strong yields during harvesting showed little effect from a hot, dry start to summer, analysts said on Wednesday. ...


Well, I wonder what's true. Yesterday I've found these quite opposite news:

Re French harvests. Take care, the crops are different, corn vs wheat. Apparently the wheat fared very well whereas corn harvests slump.
Quoting 213. cRRKampen:

Re French harvests. Take care, the crops are different, corn vs wheat. Apparently the wheat fared very well whereas corn harvests slump.

Ah, yes. This should be the solution, thanks.

And here severe news from an already poor country:
Romanian farmers stand to lose EUR 2 bln because of the drought
Added on August 5, 2015 06:47 pm
The drought in Romania has severely affected crops this year and has caused local farmers losses of almost EUR 2 billion, representing sunk investments.
This will lead to an increase in the prices of Romanian food products, said Laurentiu Baciu, president of the League of Associations of Agricultural Producers in Romania (LAPAR), quoted by Hotnews.ro.
In the most affected regions, the corn crops are ruined almost completely, whereas more than half of the sunflower crops will be lost. The wheat harvest will be half compared to last year....
Looks like the remnants of 95L are coming to life around 55W , maybe good for the lesser Antilles to get some rain


Tenacious little wave!

Lol, ex-94L looks more concentrated than the big tropical wave off Africa which is obviously diffusing its moisture towards the north.

News from beneath the wave train inside Africa:
Cameroon announces plans to release excess water from dam, Nigeria on flood alert
AFP | 06 August, 2015 13:12
Nigeria on Thursday warned tens of thousands of people living along one of its main rivers to expect massive flooding as neighbouring Cameroon announced plans to release water from a dam. ...
Good Morning Folks. The Atlantic is quiet this morning and all eyes are on the Pacific Basin and Taiwan:

Ominous shot with Taiwan in the cross-hairs; hope that the storm weakens..........Taiwan is full of fishing villages on the coast as is typical in this region of the world and the NE quad of the storm would go right over the Capitol of this track verifies:



Found this Taiwanese news source online (link below); this article is a little disturbing but I have no idea what their history is with strong Typhoons and their infrastructure......I would hope that they do follow protocol in terms of evacuation issues for coastal areas:

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php ?id=2783155


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Local governments in Southern Taiwan announced that offices and schools would not be closed Friday despite the onslaught of Typhoon Soudelor.

The storm, which some international media have labeled the strongest of the year, was expected to impact Taiwan on Friday and Saturday, while it was highly likely to make landfall in the middle of the east coast, probably in Hualien County, before trekking west to the Taiwan Straits.Most areas in South Taiwan announced earlier in the evening that Friday would be a normal working day, with schools and offices remaining open. The list included Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Tainan, Yunlin, Chiayi County and City.Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City were originally scheduled to announce their decision at 8 p.m., but they postponed the announcement until 10 p.m.By 5 p.m. Thursday, the eye of the storm was located 790 kilometers east-southeast of Hualien City over the Pacific Ocean. Soudelor was moving in a west-northwestern direction at the relatively high speed of 23 kilometers per hour, the Central Weather Bureau said.Wind speed was recorded at 173 km per hour with gusts of up to 209 km per hour, forecasters said.Sea warnings had been issued for waters east and north off Taiwan earlier in the morning, with land warnings expected to be announced at 8:30 p.m.A mother and her three daughters were reportedly swept away by strong waves in Yilan County, and one girl was reported as showing no sign of life.Already, several events planned for Friday had been postponed, while flights were canceled or brought forward to avoid the worst of the storm. Ferry traffic between Green Island and Taitung stopped Thursday noon and was unlikely to be resumed until Sunday August 9, reports said.

Quoting 208. barbamz:

And here your hot morning read with some mixed news from all over the world:


Temperature anomalies for Friday.


European max temps.


EUROPE POWER-Spot broadly steady, higher use offset by supply

Wed Aug 5, 2015 12:50pm GMT
FRANKFURT, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Rising temperatures supported European spot power prices on Wednesday as the region prepared for another heatwave set to peak on Friday although more thermal and renewable supply curbed price rises.
"Consumers are switching on their air conditioning and electric fans. On Friday, the temperatures will go to the high 30s," one trader said. ...


At least 100 drown in Turkey as nation gripped by summer heatwaves
August 5, 2015
Doctors are warning heatwave-stricken Istanbulites to be careful while swimming as a spate of drownings makes headlines in Turkey.
Thousands of people in Istanbul have been flocking to coastal spots to escape some extremely hot weather, which has seen temperatures reach a scorching 40C (104 Fahrenheit), according to meteorology officials.
However, at least 100 people have drowned across the country in the last three weeks in lakes, pools, and at sea while trying to cool off. ...


Heatwave in Cyprus prompts ministry to impose work ban
Scorching temperatures prompt the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Labor in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus to impose a four day work-ban, to be observed between noon and 04:00 pm local time starting next week, according to press reports on Wednesday.

Spanish heatwave claims ANOTHER victim, aged 36, as temperatures soar to blistering 41C
21:05, 5 August 2015

France set for record wheat crop despite hot, dry spell: Analysts
By Reuters | 5 Aug, 2015, 10.57PM IST
PARIS: France is heading for a record wheat crop this year after strong yields during harvesting showed little effect from a hot, dry start to summer, analysts said on Wednesday. ...

Well, I wonder what's true. Yesterday I've found these quite opposite news (and the persistent lack of rain in central and southern parts of Germany is staggering!):
French Corn Fried by Heat Wave Signals Plunging European Harvest
by Rudy Ruitenberg, August 5, 2015 - 12:01 AM CEST

Horrifying giant swarm containing MILLIONS of locusts sparks state of emergency in southern Russia as crops are decimated
DM, August 5, 2015
A horrifying swarm made up of millions of locusts the size of 'small sparrows' have decimated crops across southern Russia as farmers look on helplessly.
The swarm - the worst invasion in years - has already eaten its way through huge swathes of the corn fields in the Stavropol region, and have now turned their attention to 'other sources' of food.
Authorities are now desperately treating some 90,000 hectares of farmland with pesticides - but their efforts are being thwarted by high temperatures, decreasing the poison's effectiveness. ...


Shutdown Of Iraqi Health Facilities Leaves Millions Without Care
August 06, 2015
Health programs in Iraq are facing drastic cuts in the face of severe funding shortages, the World Health Organization said, leaving people exposed to diseases amid searing summer temperatures.
Almost 3 million people will have no access to urgently needed services because 84 percent of the country's donor-funded health programs were shut down last month, WHO said August 4. ...


Heatwave warnings issued for most of Korea
Updated: 2015-08-06 09:19:23 KST

Tokyo Endures Longest Heat Wave Ever Recorded; Death Toll Surges to 55 in Japan
TWC, By Nick Wiltgen, Published Aug 6 2015 12:04 AM EDT



It's that pesky jet stream again. Everything to the north of it (including me in Scotland) is anomalously cool, while everything to the south is anomalously warm. And since it's now getting stuck in the same place for longer, warm air can't dissipate north as freely as it used to, so we get persistent 'heat domes', with associated drought, crop failures and heat related deaths.


Looks to be right on track towards Taiwan at present:

Thank you, Steve, for the very nice analysis of the current Atl. Setup. It,s appreciated.
We had some heavy afternoon showers yesterday along the northern parts of the island but they were pretty isolated.
Interested to see how the coming week pans out, as we need soaking rains for a couple of days to saturate this dry ground.
Not convinced that will happen, So keeping an eye on that progression of waves as they come closer.

Oh. And good morning everyone !
nice cool weather this morning in the northeast only 60F IN new haVEN AT 5AM this morning
Quoting 224. pottery:

Thank you, Steve, for the very nice analysis of the current Atl. Setup. It,s appreciated.
We had some heavy afternoon showers yesterday along the northern parts of the island but they were pretty isolated.
Interested to see how the coming week pans out, as we need soaking rains for a couple of days to saturate this dry ground.
Not convinced that will happen, So keeping an eye on that progression of waves as they come closer.

Oh. And good morning everyone !


We are heading quickly toward the peak of Hurricane Season and it appears things aren't expect to change much between now in September. The case has been all season to look close to the US for development and I see no reason to deviate from that especially with the Pacific going into overdrive again and Sal getting stronger the next few weeks

For those of you familiar with Taiwan, could you explain how they can still go to work/school during a Cat 4/5 storm? When Charley hit S. Florida, I couldn't get back to my office for a couple of days because of the debris and power lines in the roads through Charlotte County. How do you go to work/school and maintain a normal schedule through massive flooding, homes being destroyed, etc? It boggles my mind that people would be out and about, going through their normal routines, during the storm. I'm thinking from an infrastructure standpoint alone, how do you get to or from work/school during a storm like this??
Quoting 220. weathermanwannabe:

Found this Taiwanese news source online (link below); this article is a little disturbing but I have no idea what their history is with strong Typhoons and their infrastructure......I would hope that they do follow protocol in terms of evacuation issues for coastal areas:

http://www.taiwannews.com.tw/etn/news_content.php ?id=2783155


TAIPEI (Taiwan News) – Local governments in Southern Taiwan announced that offices and schools would not be closed Friday despite the onslaught of Typhoon Soudelor.

The storm, which some international media have labeled the strongest of the year, was expected to impact Taiwan on Friday and Saturday, while it was highly likely to make landfall in the middle of the east coast, probably in Hualien County, before trekking west to the Taiwan Straits.Most areas in South Taiwan announced earlier in the evening that Friday would be a normal working day, with schools and offices remaining open. The list included Kaohsiung, Pingtung, Tainan, Yunlin, Chiayi County and City.Taipei City, New Taipei City and Keelung City were originally scheduled to announce their decision at 8 p.m., but they postponed the announcement until 10 p.m.By 5 p.m. Thursday, the eye of the storm was located 790 kilometers east-southeast of Hualien City over the Pacific Ocean. Soudelor was moving in a west-northwestern direction at the relatively high speed of 23 kilometers per hour, the Central Weather Bureau said.Wind speed was recorded at 173 km per hour with gusts of up to 209 km per hour, forecasters said.Sea warnings had been issued for waters east and north off Taiwan earlier in the morning, with land warnings expected to be announced at 8:30 p.m.A mother and her three daughters were reportedly swept away by strong waves in Yilan County, and one girl was reported as showing no sign of life.Already, several events planned for Friday had been postponed, while flights were canceled or brought forward to avoid the worst of the storm. Ferry traffic between Green Island and Taitung stopped Thursday noon and was unlikely to be resumed until Sunday August 9, reports said.



Taipei should be fairly sheltered from main impact, but counties w/ town Yilan/Luodong and even more so Hualien will take the main blast north of the eye. The Yilan region will suffer a large flood with this geology, Link
I think the disconnect with this blog comes from overall knowledge of atmospheric set up/conditions. Anytime you have a 4.01 sigma AEI index higher than 1997 at its peak means that all the energy will continue to get focused across the Pacific. Energy as in lift, lower pressures, higher overall instability, and reversal of Trades due to strengthening El-Nino giving cyclones that extra spin needed for formation. The graph below from the CPC given a excellent idea of what to expect thru the rest of August.

cmc..57w.28n
Well by the looks of it it's seems safe to say ex-94L survived the night and so far this morning it's doing well and conditions around it are getting even better
Good Morning..

Quoting 227. flbeachgirl:

For those of you familiar with Taiwan, could you explain how they can still go to work/school during a Cat 4/5 storm? When Charley hit S. Florida, I couldn't get back to my office for a couple of days because of the debris and power lines in the roads through Charlotte County. How do you go to work/school and maintain a normal schedule through massive flooding, homes being destroyed, etc? It boggles my mind that people would be out and about, going through their normal routines, during the storm. I'm thinking from an infrastructure standpoint alone, how do you get to or from work/school during a storm like this??


They don't work during strong typhoons, I think the reason they didn't cancel school/work on Friday is because it is scheduled to make landfall Saturday morning (can't forget the time change, they're 13 hours ahead of CDT). Tropical storm conditions wouldn't warrant school closings for them.

My mother is from Taipei and she's told me stories of typhoons flooding the streets up to their two story apartment. The large cities do have a great infrastructure to handle typhoons, but regardless when this happens everything gets shut down for days and there is extensive damage.

There are also many rural areas in Taiwan in the mountains, the buildings there are not very strong and this is where you typically see most of the fatalities in the country during land falling typhoons. These areas are also far more prone to land slides.
Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:

I think the disconnect with this blog comes from overall knowledge of atmospheric set up/conditions. Anytime you have a 4.01 sigma AEI index higher than 1997 at its peak means that all the energy will continue to get focused across the Pacific. Energy as in lift, lower pressures, higher overall instability, and reversal of Trades due to strengthening El-Nino giving cyclones that extra spin needed for formation. The graph below from the CPC given a excellent idea of what to expect thru the rest of August.




I think the majority of the people on this blog have an understanding of atmospheric set up conditions.
Taiwan Work and Class Status during Natural Disasters
Link

County/City Government
Yilan County Work and Classes Cancelled Tomorrow.
Hualien County Work and Classes Cancelled Tomorrow.
Taitung County No Announcements

Hopefully this thing continues to weaken as it approaches.. Wishing those about to be affected by Soudelor as it approaches the islands. Haven't posted one of these in a long time.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
Remember earlier this week when the GFS was spinning up a Cape Verde System? Oops. Don't get fooled by AEWs in models
Wasn't Michael Ventrice calling for a super el nino just a couple of weeks ago..oops, don't get caught up in CFSv2 models..

In Entertainment news and somewhat related to weather as his memes are posted on here constantly, its going to be a sad evening for a few individuals here..

The Daily Show: Jon Stewart to Sign Off as Host of Comedy Central Late Night Talk Show Thursday
Quoting 238. ncstorm:

Wasn't Michael Ventrice calling for a super el nino just a couple of weeks ago..oops, don't get caught up in CFSv2 models..




We are heading into Super El-Nino. The atmosphere is already set up as such. The difference from 1997 vrs 2015 is the warmest surface anomalies come this Fall are likely going to be across Nino 3.4 as opposed to Nino 1&2 in 1997

Speaking of the CFSv2 August update is @ 3C


Poama (BOM Models) updated on Monday 2.5C surpassing the 1997 (2.35C) ENSO.

Quoting 233. pipelines:



They don't work during strong typhoons, I think the reason they didn't cancel school/work on Friday is because it is scheduled to make landfall Saturday morning (can't forget the time change, they're 13 hours ahead of CDT). Tropical storm conditions wouldn't warrant school closings for them.

My mother is from Taipei and she's told me stories of typhoons flooding the streets up to their two story apartment. The large cities do have a great infrastructure to handle typhoons, but regardless when this happens everything gets shut down for days and there is extensive damage.

There are also many rural areas in Taiwan in the mountains, the buildings there are not very strong and this is where you typically see most of the fatalities in the country during land falling typhoons. These areas are also far more prone to land slides.


Ah, okay, that helps explain it a little if the storm isn't expected to make landfall until Saturday. It's interesting to see the contrasts in when things are shut down, since our bridges here close at TS wind speeds.
Quoting 238. ncstorm:

Wasn't Michael Ventrice calling for a super el nino just a couple of weeks ago..oops, don't get caught up in CFSv2 models..




Oh by the way here are the rest of the models. Again I am glad to be of much assistance.

Nearly every model is forecasting a Super Nino now

Quoting 212. GeoffreyWPB:

Soudelor...

I'm telling you… Soudelor has a perfect eye and eyewall setup. If it can solve the dry air issue in the northern part of the storm, this will then be a cat 5 again. Remember, later today this storm will be re-entering warmer waters, and better conditions for development.
Here is more info from the Aussies

NINO3.4 outlook
The latest NINO3.4 forecasts (initialised in July) indicate that sea surface temperatures across the central tropical Pacific Ocean are likely to persist at above El Niño thresholds through until the end of 2015. The all-model average NINO3.4 outlook for October is just above +2.6 °C, increasing to +2.7 °C by December. Since the start of the satellite era of ocean observations in the late 1970's, NINO3.4 values this large have only been observed during the 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Niño events. Individual model values range between +2.2 °C and +3.4 °C for December; all well above the El Niño threshold and indicative of a substantial El Niño.
The most recent NINO3.4 value is +1.5 °C for the week ending 12 July 2015. NINO3.4 values above +0.8 °C typically occur during El Niño events.
The following graph shows the average forecast value of NINO3.4 for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. If the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the blue dashed line, there is an increased risk of La Niña. Similarly, if the bars on the graph are approaching or exceeding the red dashed line, there is an increased chance of El Niño.
This isn't an eye of a category 2:



Soudelor shouldn't have much issue becoming at least a category 4 again.
We've been baking down here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers) with no rainfall the past couple days. It was so hot yesterday afternoon I couldn't stand it.

Here's our NWS forecast for today and tomorrow. (heat index around 100 degrees, light winds, 20% chance of a shower)

Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 100. Light and variable wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Quoting 246. Sfloridacat5:

We've been baking down here in S.W. Florida (Fort Myers) with no rainfall the past couple days. It was so hot yesterday afternoon I couldn't stand it.

Here's our NWS forecast for today and tomorrow. (heat index around 100 degrees, light winds, 20% chance of a shower)

Today
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 101. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming west southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. West northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday
Isolated showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 100. Light and variable wind becoming west 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 20%.




Looking at the models it appears another active pattern is just a 1 day away from beginning again infact 500mb temps are expected to first cool to -7C/-8C @ 500mb this weekend into early next week then cool to -10C at 500mb mid to late next week across FL. A sure sign that some of these afternoon storms across FL could go severe next week with large hail and strong winds. Reason for this is a anomalous 500mb cut off low diving south and carving out over FL. Very indicative of El-Nino!

Near record low heights forecast over the SE US next week. Unheard of in early/mid August. This pattern is more like October coming up not August.




As a result of these low heights you guessed it another low close to FL.

Quoting 231. wunderkidcayman:

Well by the looks of it it's seems safe to say ex-94L survived the night and so far this morning it's doing well and conditions around it are getting even better


That's not a blob, it's a blip. :) Who knows, crazier things have happened.
Very much a Fall like pattern setting up across the Eastern US. Even seeing temps in the 30's for lows across the Great Lakes in the long range.

nice.sunsets.tonight....melb....PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT MIAMI AND KEY WEST SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
NEAR 850MB WITH DRYING ABOVE. THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES THERE HAVE
NOTED THIS DRY LAYER IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR.
252. vis0
image host
GFS 336 hours out in EPAC... Surprised no one has posted this yet.



And all the way out...

Quoting 241. flbeachgirl:



Ah, okay, that helps explain it a little if the storm isn't expected to make landfall until Saturday. It's interesting to see the contrasts in when things are shut down, since our bridges here close at TS wind speeds.
I should have clarified my post to point out the difference in the Taiwan mindset between a tropical storm and a 120 mph typhoon. A TS is almost an every month occurrence during the season in Taiwan, and shutting things down for them would interfere with industrial production in what was, until quite recently, a poor developing country trying to compete with the world. The value of education and hard work, regardless of risk, is stressed in Taiwan to a degree that seems a little strange to Westerners, but an understanding of their history and economy makes it a little more clear, at least to me. A "real" typhoon will shut everything down, just because the power and transport infrastructure will take a big hit, if nothing else.

The one real flaw I saw in their civil defense planning was a relentless sense of optimism that things wouldn't be too bad. I suppose you need a sense of relentless optimism when the country with the largest army in the world has been threatening to invade you for more than 65 years, but that also extends to natural disasters. Most typhoons do weaken before hitting Taiwan, but they'll ramp up all their systems in the last 24 hours before landfall if it looks like the typhoon will hold together. They can do an amazing amount of evacuations in 24 hours. The other impression I got was that almost all their efforts are focused on urban areas. Taiwan is heavily urbanized (78% according to the UN) so that makes some sense, but I believe the government pretty much has put rural areas on their own in this kind of storm until they can free up resources from urban areas. I was a guest of the Taiwan (Republic of China, as I was reminded several times during my visit) government doing some search and rescue training with their civil defense organization. Every time I asked about their evacuation and rescue plans were for farmers in hills they wanted to show me another seawall they had built on the coast. It became pretty clear to me that I was on a touchy subject best left alone. That was in 2002, so things may have changed some, but I doubt it.
Quoting 251. islander101010:

nice.sunsets.tonight....melb....PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT MIAMI AND KEY WEST SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
NEAR 850MB WITH DRYING ABOVE. THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES THERE HAVE
NOTED THIS DRY LAYER IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR.



Main reason why S FL has stayed dry all Summer. Lower heights next week should make for wet times ahead for S FL. Very anomalous pattern moving in across the SE US. It's like October in August coming. Amazing again you can';t have a 4.01 sigma AEI index and not see anomalous pattern across the US especially FL! Maybe time to invest in a kayak.


The Tampa reporting station has already exceeded it's average annual rainfall by over an inch.

Im going to huff and puff and blow your house down!
Quoting 257. tampabaymatt:



The Tampa reporting station has already exceeded it's average annual rainfall by over an inch.


Totals really drop off going into SE FL/ the Keys
Quoting 245. Envoirment:

This isn't an eye of a category 2:[pic] Soudelor shouldn't have much issue becoming at least a category 4 again.

No it is not.
Yes it could near Taiwan as a cat. 4 and let's be wary for the remainder of its track to the coast.
CMC depicts another threat for Hawaii at the end of the run.

Quoting 231. wunderkidcayman:

Well by the looks of it it's seems safe to say ex-94L survived the night and so far this morning it's doing well and conditions around it are getting even better
Ex-94L is approaching from stage right in this view. Once again, look at the convection out ahead of it as a preview of what's going to happen with this low. It has lost almost all the strong convection this morning and, as it approaches the Caribbean Dead Zone, it will be harder and harder to regain it. The best case scenario is this low holds together long enough to bring some rain to the Windward islands. We can hope for the best but, objectively, even that's a doubtful proposition at this point.

Another key reason for all the strange weather coming across the SE US is the SOI as it has been tanking for the last 10 days now with values consistently in the -20 TO -40 range on the daily average. This supports a East Coast Trough.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 06 Aug 2015
Average for last 30 days -16.74
Average for last 90 days -14.10
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -25.92

The weather is not strange in Se. Louisiana, its just August.

People are strange though, like the Doors sing.
Tokyo Endures Longest Heat Wave Ever Recorded; Death Toll Surges to 55 in Japan

The heat even spread to the normally cool shores of Hokkaido, the northernmost of Japan’s four main Islands. The city of Nemuro reached an all-time record high of 33.6 C (92.5 F) Wednesday, topping the previous record of 33.0 C (91.4 F) set Aug. 6, 1960. Records in Nemuro date all the way back to 1879, making this an especially significant record climatologically.

Link
Quoting 260. cRRKampen:


No it is not.
Yes it could near Taiwan as a cat. 4 and let's be wary for the remainder of its track to the coast.


Ensemble runs do depict the system strengthening a bit before landfall in Taiwan.. But how much is the question.

GFS: Potential landfall of Soudelor at 961 or even less.



HWRF shows a potential Sub 940!

Quoting 264. Patrap:

The weather is not strange in Se. Louisiana, its just August.

People are strange though, like the Doors sing.


come back to me next week. Very deep trough is going to push a cold front all the way into FL mid to late next week. SE US is going to enjoy some nice nights (60's maybe even some 50's for lows) mid to late next week.
This is some very cold mid level air next week across the SE.

Conus-wise, that frontal low pushing towards the Eastern Seaboard is pretty deep but thankfully not approaching any severe limits:

Central Great Lakes sector loop
Houston, TX


Some umphhh going on out there...
Come back to me?

I never knew yer feelings went dat deep Scott.

I am flattered, thanx.

: )
Tropical Storm HILDA
8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2015
Location: 12.7°N 132.3°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1004 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Quoting 259. StormTrackerScott:



Totals really drop off going into SE FL/ the Keys


Hard to believe Tampa has received almost 30 more inches of rain YTD than Ft. Lauderdale.

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HILDA ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
800 AM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilda was
located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 132.3 West. Hilda is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through tonight followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Hilda is expected to be near hurricane strength by Saturday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).




Kauai and Oahu (and Niihau) will get Guillermo rain.
very fall like over lower lakes today
nice actually perfect weather
trees are even showing a little color change
starting early real early
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:



come back to me next week. Very deep trough is going to push a cold front all the way into FL mid to late next week. SE US is going to enjoy some nice nights (60's maybe even some 50's for lows) mid to late next week.


Yeah, nothing strange at all about Tampa exceeding its annual rainfall average by August 2nd.
Quoting 278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very fall like over lower lakes today
nice actually perfect weather
trees are even showing a little color change
starting early real early


Very deep tough being depicted on both the Euro and GFS next week with lows in the 30's & 40's across the Great lakes later next week. That is some very cold air for August.

Here is the Euro. Don't let the early cold fool you though as this Winter could be quite mild for you guys.

Quoting 279. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, nothing strange at all about Tampa exceeding its annual rainfall average by August 2nd.


Indeed, its right on scale and par with the warming Global atmosphere with more Water Vapor.

2015, the year the Climate Strikes Back.



Tropical Storm HILDA 8:00 AM PDT Thu Aug 6 2015
Quoting 283. Gearsts:




The Caribbean Desert
Quoting 268. StormTrackerScott:



come back to me next week. Very deep trough is going to push a cold front all the way into FL mid to late next week. SE US is going to enjoy some nice nights (60's maybe even some 50's for lows) mid to late next week.


wow!!
Quoting 257. tampabaymatt:



The Tampa reporting station has already exceeded it's average annual rainfall by over an inch.
It sure looks like the focus of the vast majority of that rain was in the Tampa area. The much lower totals for stations surrounding Tampa are pretty good evidence of this. How much of the Tampa rain was from the low that was ex-95L? I was under the impression that it was around 10"-15", which makes up a pretty good part of the total, if that's true.

We had a rare occurrence last night - nocturnal thunderstorms. The developed on an old outflow boundary just to west of me, and a trough to the north supplied just enough energy to act as the kicker. I couldn't stay awake past 1:00 this morning but the storms were already developing by then. According to the chart from my PWS, the storms got here about 3:30 and dropped 0.18". Not exactly a toad choker but better than the nothing I've had the past week. There are some thunderstorms around this morning, and all I can hope for is enough cloud cover to keep the temperature in check. It's already 91 with a dewpoint of 79 so my free sauna bath is operation. :-)
Quoting 254. sar2401:

I should have clarified my post to point out the difference in the Taiwan mindset between a tropical storm and a 120 mph typhoon. A TS is almost an every month occurrence during the season in Taiwan, and shutting things down for them would interfere with industrial production in what was, until quite recently, a poor developing country trying to compete with the world. The value of education and hard work, regardless of risk, is stressed in Taiwan to a degree that seems a little strange to Westerners, but an understanding of their history and economy makes it a little more clear, at least to me. A "real" typhoon will shut everything down, just because the power and transport infrastructure will take a big hit, if nothing else.

The one real flaw I saw in their civil defense planning was a relentless sense of optimism that things wouldn't be too bad. I suppose you need a sense of relentless optimism when the country with the largest army in the world has been threatening to invade you for more than 65 years, but that also extends to natural disasters. Most typhoons do weaken before hitting Taiwan, but they'll ramp up all their systems in the last 24 hours before landfall if it looks like the typhoon will hold together. They can do an amazing amount of evacuations in 24 hours. The other impression I got was that almost all their efforts are focused on urban areas. Taiwan is heavily urbanized (78% according to the UN) so that makes some sense, but I believe the government pretty much has put rural areas on their own in this kind of storm until they can free up resources from urban areas. I was a guest of the Taiwan (Republic of China, as I was reminded several times during my visit) government doing some search and rescue training with their civil defense organization. Every time I asked about their evacuation and rescue plans were for farmers in hills they wanted to show me another seawall they had built on the coast. It became pretty clear to me that I was on a touchy subject best left alone. That was in 2002, so things may have changed some, but I doubt it.


This is a great post, Sar! Thanks for the insight! I'm in charge of a crucial component of our local emergency operations, so I'm very interested in how this all works in other places.
Quoting 262. sar2401:

Ex-94L is approaching from stage right in this view. Once again, look at the convection out ahead of it as a preview of what's going to happen with this low. It has lost almost all the strong convection this morning and, as it approaches the Caribbean Dead Zone, it will be harder and harder to regain it. The best case scenario is this low holds together long enough to bring some rain to the Windward islands. We can hope for the best but, objectively, even that's a doubtful proposition at this point.




Good morning.

Agree with you on that. Bone dry in the Caribbean and ex 94L weaker than your average afternoon thunderstorm. It could be the end of August or even into September before we see anything worth blogging about spin up in the Atlantic. After that we would be looking to cold fronts dipping down into the Caribbean for any potential development with an early shut down of the CV season, such as it will be, quite likely.

What is needed is for a few CV waves to moisten the MDR sufficiently for a low to develop but my suspicion is that by the time that happens shear will be up. It will be very difficult to get all the right conditions aligned at one time this year except in possibly small windows of opportunity.

The precip forecast through August for the Caribbean is for below average rainfall which has been the case now for several weeks. Anything entering the Caribbean will struggle to hold on to convection.


win 10 test post



this a why notting happern in the Tropical Atlantic
Quoting 284. Patrap:



Indeed, its right on scale and par with the warming Global atmosphere with more Water Vapor.

2015, the year the Climate Strikes Back.




But yet, there is drought in other parts of FL. I think the actual explanation is a little more complicated.
Climate change adds to the extremes.

Thus 100 drowning in Turkey, or those dying from Prolonged drought.

Even the Saudi King's Family have fled North to escape the Heat.




cooler water to the north in the Eastern Atlantic keeping the air dry and the dry air moving from the northeast where the cool water from!
Quoting 294. tampabaymatt:



But yet, there is drought in other parts of FL. I think the actual explanation is a little more complicated.


El-Nino at play causing Saharan Dust plumes to be stronger than usual keeping the Caribbean dry along with SE FL. The Stronger El-Nino typically bring dry summers to SE FL. Nothing GW related just an every 3 to 7 year cycle of El-Nino with 15 to 18 year cycles for Strong El-Nino's.
"Gee"

Quoting 288. hurricanes2018:



wow!!


Explains a lot.
Life on Earth will look dramatically different by mid-century

TANYA LEWIS

Climate change is happening far faster than predicted, and it's causing a huge decline in animal life, according to a recent report released by Boston-based asset management firm Grantham Mayo van Otterloo (GMO).

Last year was the hottest year on record, and 2015 is on track to be even hotter. Research suggests that our warming planet is pushing us toward a sixth mass extinction.

The total amount of animal life on Earth has halved in the last 35 years, and bird populations have decreased by 40%, a recent report from the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) estimates.

Here's a chart from the WWF showing how much animal populations have declined:

animal populations skitch
WWF, ZSL, 2014

But all this change isn't going to take years to shape up. Life on Earth is already starting to look dramatically different. Here are some of the trends in animal decline that have emerged in the past several decades:

1. The number of animals has declined by half since 1970.
Animal populations plummeted by 52% between 1970 and 2010, according to the WWF's Living Planet Index, which is calculated using trends in 10,380 populations of over 3,038 vertebrate species (fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals).

2. Populations from all animal groups are shrinking
Birds, fish, reptiles, amphibians, and mammals have all seen some of their populations decline over the past few decades. But one group has lost more animals than any other...

3. More birds are disappearing than any other species
There are more groups of birds in the report than any other species, and the number of bird populations has dwindled by more than 2,000. A recent report from the Audubon Society found that suitable ranges for 10 bird species will disappear entirely due to climate change.


There is no room for complacency. The negative effects of climate change are only just beginning, and "it is easy to imagine that in another 40 years we will have springs that are very silent indeed," the GMO report states.

Quoting 289. sar2401:

It sure looks like the focus of the vast majority of that rain was in the Tampa area. The much lower totals for stations surrounding Tampa are pretty good evidence of this. How much of the Tampa rain was from the low that was ex-95L? I was under the impression that it was around 10"-15", which makes up a pretty good part of the total, if that's true.

We had a rare occurrence last night - nocturnal thunderstorms. The developed on an old outflow boundary just to west of me, and a trough to the north supplied just enough energy to act as the kicker. I couldn't stay awake past 1:00 this morning but the storms were already developing by then. According to the chart from my PWS, the storms got here about 3:30 and dropped 0.18". Not exactly a toad choker but better than the nothing I've had the past week. There are some thunderstorms around this morning, and all I can hope for is enough cloud cover to keep the temperature in check. It's already 91 with a dewpoint of 79 so my free sauna bath is operation. :-)


The heart of the Tampa Bay area (Pasco, Pinellas, and Hillsborough) counties, have picked up anywhere between 10”-18” in the past 12 days or so, with some heavier amounts in western Pasco. I picked up 7.04” in about 30 hours from Friday, 7/24 to Saturday morning 7/25. That was due to a slow moving front sagging south bringing tremendous PWATs. Then, that moisture kind of hung around all week and brought random storms with locally heavy amounts. Then, the low formed and sat right on top of Tampa, and I picked up 7.20” in about 6 hours the morning of Monday, 8/3. My total rainfall from 7/24 to 8/3 was 17.84”. I am in NW Hillsborough County, which was one of the harder hit spots.

The main cause of the long duration of the event was the front that didn’t move and the low that didn’t move. It kept extremely high PWATs over us for days on end and there was plenty of upper level energy to bring the rain. It was just a miserable stretch and is going to cause tons of issues to come. The saturated ground really undermines the roads and infrastructure and I expect to see tons of reports of sinkholes and utility cave ins in the coming weeks.
Quoting 279. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, nothing strange at all about Tampa exceeding its annual rainfall average by August 2nd.
Tampa seems to be the centre of strange, though. Look at the difference between it and Bradenton.... just a few miles south.
El-Nino at play causing Saharan Dust plumes to be stronger than usual


i believe we discussed this before and provided a copy and paste of the study disproving this theory.....in short..the study showed that rather than el nino the reason for a stronger SAL layer would be the year prior drought conditions in the sahara region
Quoting 291. kmanislander:



Good morning.

Agree with you on that. Bone dry in the Caribbean and ex 94L weaker than your average afternoon thunderstorm. It could be the end of August or even into September before we see anything worth blogging about spin up in the Atlantic. After that we would be looking to cold fronts dipping down into the Caribbean for any potential development with an early shut down of the CV season, such as it will be, quite likely.

What is needed is for a few CV waves to moisten the MDR sufficiently for a low to develop but my suspicion is that by the time that happens shear will be up. It will be very difficult to get all the right conditions aligned at one time this year except in possibly small windows of opportunity.

The precip forecast through August for the Caribbean is for below average rainfall which has been the case now for several weeks. Anything entering the Caribbean will struggle to hold on to convection.
There certainly doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the waves themselves... I was just thinking that if conditions had been slightly more conducive, ex-94L might have been a serious threat to the Lesser Antilles. If it survives the trek across the south Car, I fully expect it to be the next big thing in the EPac.
306. MahFL
Quoting 231. wunderkidcayman:

Well by the looks of it it's seems safe to say ex-94L survived the night and so far this morning it's doing well and conditions around it are getting even better


I don't see it getting any moister....which conditions are getting better in your opinion ?
307. MahFL
Quoting 305. BahaHurican:

There certainly doesn't seem to be anything wrong with the waves themselves... I was just thinking that if conditions had been slightly more conducive, ex-94L might have been a serious threat to the Lesser Antilles. If it survives the trek across the south Carolina, I fully expect it to be the next big thing in the EPac.


South Carolina is not in the path of ex 94L.
am forcasting 5 name storms and no hurricanes this season we have had 3 name storms so far and we are getting later and later in the season has each day gos by i think 5 name storms for the hole season will be are lucky # this year if that is if we can make it too 5 name storms we may vary well end the season with olny 3 name storms if we get nothing in AUGS and nothing in SEP
in the mean time am forcasting 5 too 10 nam storms for the E PAC for AUGS and other 5 to 10 name storms for SEP 4 in OCT and 2 in nov
the E PAC is going too be on fire the the new few weeks and moths
311. txjac
Quoting 272. RitaEvac:

Houston, TX


Some umphhh going on out there...


I am so not looking forward to the upcoming days ..
I cant believe how "crispy" everything has become ...some rain is definitely needed
Quoting 282. hydrus:




Best looking "Category 2" I've seen since Ike...

...yeah I don't think this is a Category 2 anymore
I have a feeling the JWTC is under estimating the potential of Typhoon Soudelor. 

As part of his weakening phase over the last 2 days have been confined over waters that had been churned up by the previous two typhoons over the region.  Soudelor has cleared those waters now, and has plentiful untouched waters with much deeper TCHP underneath him. 

His core has re-established himself and has nearly perfect outflow in all quadrants.  Soudelor will only continue to intensify up until landfall.

Probably already a 100 knot system at the least.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him jump up to 130 knots just before landfall on Tawain.  I don't understand the 105 knot max peak.  30C water temps here and you can clearly see the marked increase in TCHP vs. what he has been transversing up until now...

I believe we can see this strengthening presenting itself right now on satellite....









Quoting 304. ricderr:

El-Nino at play causing Saharan Dust plumes to be stronger than usual


i believe we discussed this before and provided a copy and paste of the study disproving this theory.....in short..the study showed that rather than el nino the reason for a stronger SAL layer would be the year prior drought conditions in the sahara region


Correct, I just got finished looking this up myself.
The Typhoon looked slightly skimpier a few hours ago in the NW quad but the inner core is picking up in intensity again; the Taiwanese are well aware of the storm but we will still be on pins and needles to see how strong or weak it gets approaching landfall; pretty scary looking eyewall in the western flank at the moment:

Quoting 306. MahFL:



I don't see it getting any moister....which conditions are getting better in your opinion ?
There's usually a slight improvement in conditions for TCs approaching the Antilles ... someone else can explain why.
318. MahFL
Quoting 227. flbeachgirl:

For those of you familiar with Taiwan, could you explain how they can still go to work/school during a Cat 4/5 storm? Taiwan's homes and businesses are built to withstand high winds


Taiwan's homes and businesses are built to withstand high winds, TWC said Taiwan has been hit by 40 Cat4 Typhoons alone, so any weak stuff will be long gone. Also their whole philosophy in that part of the world is different from Western values.
Quoting 307. MahFL:



South Carolina is not in the path of ex 94L.
Should be south Caribbean..... blame Autoinsert
Typhoon Soudelor in the western Pacific Ocean will remain a powerful tropical cyclone into this weekend threatening Taiwan and eastern China with flooding and damaging winds.
Satellite imagery continues to show most of Guillermo's low-level center exposed, as strong shearing winds and dry air have taken a heavy toll upon the weakening storm. This strong vertical wind shear along with Guillermo taking a path into somewhat cooler waters will cause Guillermo to weaken to a depression as the center passes north of the Hawaiian Islands. Even though the center of Guillermo will remain to the north and northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, there will still be some impacts from the storm over the next few days. Rough surf, large waves and rip currents will continue to affect the Hawaiian Islands through Friday. In addition, as the storm center passes by to the north and northeast, gusty showers with locally heavy rainfall will affect the islands, particularly the northern sides. The heaviest rain will fall over the mountainous terrain today and tonight. Moisture wrapping into the storm could move over some of the islands, causing additional gusty showers through Friday on Kauai.
Elsewhere, newly formed Tropical Storm Hilda is located about 1,630 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Hilda will gradually intensify through the rest of the week as it tracks off to the west-northwest with warm waters and limited wind shear in its path. Hilda may become a hurricane by this weekend. Hilda will have to be watched for eventual potential impacts to Hawaii, but any effects there are still several days away. 8/6/2015 11:05:00 AM
Quoting 317. hurricanes2018:


Looks like the CVIs are getting some [much needed]rain from this Twave ... could this be our moistener?
Just to give you a size scale for Taiwan; not that big of a place and if the Typhoon crosses near the center, the entire Island may be subject to tropical storm winds and gusts (and even hurricane gusts) well away from the core:


The island of Taiwan, in Eastern Asia, is about 161 kilometers (100 miles) away from the southeast part of mainland China, and about 483 kilometers (300 miles) north of the Philippine island of Luzon.The territory is slightly smaller than the combined area of Maryland and Delaware in the United States. Taiwan occupies a total area of 35,980 square kilometers (13,892 square miles). Its capital city, Taipei, is in the northeast, and is the most densely populated area in the territory.
br style="box-sizing: border-box;">br style="box-sizing: border-box;">
324. MahFL
A quick look at Google Street view of some houses on the east coast of Taiwan show many solidly built houses on pillars 15 feet or so high. Big mountains protect the western large cities. Of course some older houses will be badly damaged.

Even houses with tin roofs have extra concrete slabs on them to hold the roof down. The houses look like they have been there a long time.
Quoting 317. hurricanes2018:




*poof*
Toxic algae blooms in Pacific Ocean worse than first feared

SEATTLE (AP) -- A vast bloom of toxic algae off the West Coast is denser, more widespread and deeper than scientists feared even weeks ago, according to surveyors aboard a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration research vessel.

This coastal ribbon of microscopic algae, up to 60 kilometres wide and 200 metres deep in places, is flourishing amid unusually warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. It now stretches from at least California to Alaska and has shut down lucrative fisheries. Shellfish managers on Tuesday doubled the area off Washington's coast that is closed to Dungeness crab fishing, after finding elevated levels of marine toxins in tested crab meat.


Link
Soudelor starting to appear on Japanese radar for the southern islands:



Should come into view tonight/tomorrow morning.
Quoting 227. flbeachgirl:

For those of you familiar with Taiwan, could you explain how they can still go to work/school during a Cat 4/5 storm? When Charley hit S. Florida, I couldn't get back to my office for a couple of days because of the debris and power lines in the roads through Charlotte County. How do you go to work/school and maintain a normal schedule through massive flooding, homes being destroyed, etc? It boggles my mind that people would be out and about, going through their normal routines, during the storm. I'm thinking from an infrastructure standpoint alone, how do you get to or from work/school during a storm like this??

They must spend money on infrastructure......We seem to not want to do that for the last 30 years.
Soudelor's outflow pattern is really helping to mix out dry air and to moisten the environment:



Just look at that dry air get pushed away and replaced by moister air to its west!
NOAA's seasonal update today calls for an additional 3 to 7 named storms, 1 to 4 hurricanes, and 0 to 1 major hurricanes.

Worth noting that TS Hilda has joined the east Pacific team for this season now.
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA's seasonal update today calls for an additional 3 to 7 named storms, 1 to 4 hurricanes, and 0 to 1 major hurricanes.




IMO, I think 7-2-0 is a likely seasonal total. Two minimal hurricanes (both in September, one probably developing from a non-tropical nature) and two additional tropical storms.
Quoting 278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very fall like over lower lakes today
nice actually perfect weather
trees are even showing a little color change
starting early real early
Greetings Keep..I am growing more concerned with the possibility of another rough winter.
Quoting 330. TropicalAnalystwx13:

NOAA's seasonal update today calls for an additional 3 to 7 named storms, 1 to 4 hurricanes, and 0 to 1 major hurricanes.




Sounds about right. No doubt it's going to be slower than normal.
336. vis0
http://youtu.be/0_ZJ84rsj-s(1300x812, below::600x376)


...i can hear Grothar is getting up, putting on his slippers (nice furry bunnies) reaching for his spectacles and saying...that "B" word...backache!
2015 hurricane season is beginning to look like the 1972 season.
Quoting 328. HurricaneHunterJoe:




I visit Taiwan about 2 months out of each year. There are a couple reasons why they can go to work during a storm like this. First, the entire east side of the island is largely mountainous with very few people and no cities. Taipei is surrounded by large hills and mountains, so winds at ground level will be much lower than in Florida which has no hilly terrain to slow winds. And lastly, they have a tropical environment, so they are very used to high rains/flooding. Now, if Soudelor reaches cat 5 and makes a direct hit on Taipei, people would stay home. But barring that, they will put on their raincoats, get on their scooters and drive to work.
Quoting 280. StormTrackerScott:



Very deep tough being depicted on both the Euro and GFS next week with lows in the 30's & 40's across the Great lakes later next week. That is some very cold air for August.

Here is the Euro. Don't let the early cold fool you though as this Winter could be quite mild for you guys.




Up there yeah the Nino signal is fairly strong.

Here in the Mid Atlantic, the signal is much weaker esp. for temperature. The precip signal is stronger.. somewhat wetter than normal but the weak temperature signal masks a significant paucity of arctic outbreaks in Nino years which makes a big difference in how brutal the winter feels. And it's hard to get much snow here in strong and super Nino years, though Feb 1983 shows it certainly isn't impossible. 1957-58 was a strong Nino, and cold and VERY snowy winter but there was more to that than just the Nino phase
Quoting 339. georgevandenberghe:



Up there yeah the Nino signal is fairly strong.

Here in the Mid Atlantic, the signal is much weaker esp. for temperature. The precip signal is stronger.. somewhat wetter than normal but the weak temperature signal masks a significant paucity of arctic outbreaks in Nino years which makes a big difference in how brutal the winter feels. And it's hard to get much snow here in strong and super Nino years, though Feb 1983 shows it certainly isn't impossible. 1957-58 was a strong Nino, and cold and VERY snowy winter but there was more to that than just the Nino phase


I don't think we have enough stronger years to determine what really happens based on a Strong El Nino alone. The deciding factor for us will probably be the NAO/AO and PNA.


Nino forecast falling again
Here a connection from Florida to Taiwan (Taipei) and approaching Soudelor ;-)

Live Wire: Limp Bizkit in the eye of the storm
By David Frazier /Taipei Times, Fri, Aug 07, 2015
So you book Limp Bizkit and a hundred other bands, build a giant stage for 10,000 people and then the most powerful storm the world has seen so far this year, Typhoon Soudelor, makes a bee-line for Taiwan. The Heart Town Festival, which will hold its second edition this weekend, has not had it easy. But, as the organizers say, the show must go on.
The Heart Town Festival, a music festival for metal, hardcore and rock, was originally scheduled to start today and run through Sunday, with four stages and 104 bands and international headliners ...
But with Typhoon Soudelor bearing down and expected to sweep over Taiwan tonight, Heart Town organizers have canceled Friday’s performances, but will continue to go more or less as scheduled on tomorrow and Sunday. They will move as many of today’s performances as possible to tomorrow and Sunday. ...
Limp Bizkit plays Sunday night and is in fact the reason that Heart Town has changed venues this year, from last year’s downtown location to a more expansive site next to the Taichung High-Speed Rail Station. ...
Limp Bizkit formed in 1995 in Jacksonville, Florida, and though critics have always held a grudge against them for music that is, if not stupid, at least lowest common denominator. But they still managed to create one of the most powerful mosh-pit engines in music and an incredible crossover appeal. They sounded hard, but they didn’t have long hair or any of the gothic or horror film stylings of other metal bands. ...



Falling now down to 1.9C

Quoting 341. wunderkidcayman:



Nino forecast falling again


Now nearing 2.5C
Quoting 341. wunderkidcayman:



Nino forecast falling again
Dan Leonard ‏@DanLeonard_wx 1h1 hour ago
The Atmos El Nino Index poised to peak at +4.14 which would break the all time record of 4.1 set in apr '83.
WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 13W (SOUDELOR) WARNING NR 30//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (SOUDELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 30NM
EYE WITH DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING PERSISTING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON
THE EYE FEATURE. A 061240Z METOP-B IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS
WITH A SMALL INNER EYEWALL OF ABOUT 50NM DIAMETER AND A LARGER,
160NM DIAMETER EYEWALL, SEPARATED BY A WELL-DEFINED MOAT FEATURE.
THIS DOUBLE EYEWALL CONFIGURATION HAS PERSISTED FOR ABOUT 18 HOURS
WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY; THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO
102 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW;
HOWEVER, DRY AIR IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM IN THE ISHIGAKI-JIMA SOUNDING AND RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. TY SOUDELOR IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 13W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR. IN
THE SHORT TERM, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER THE SYSTEM
COMPLETES THE CURRENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC); HOWEVER,
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AN ERC AS THEY CAN
PERSIST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WHICH VARIES SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE DEGREE OF RE-
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36. THE JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO
REFLECT A RE-INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 24 DUE TO
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW, INCREASING SST AND INCREASING OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT. NEAR TAU 36, TY 13W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER
TAIWAN THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRANSITS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN THEN RE-EMERGE OVER THE TAIWAN STRAIT AS A WEAK TYPHOON. BY
TAU 48, TY SOUDELOR WILL MAKE A SECOND LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN
COAST OF CHINA NEAR QUANZHOU.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY SOUDELOR WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STEERING STR AND TURN POLEWARD. THE CYCLONE WILL
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AS IT TRACKS INLAND, LEADING TO ITS
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN
Here's the wind map for 24 hours from now over Taiwan, it seems that the storm will be more to the north of the island.
Winds look to be freely running at more than 100 MPH.

Link

Its worth clicking on the link for the projection even though it will not be 100% accurate, its impressive.
Interesting how the circular winds are completely surrounding the whole island to the west side and still making a near perfect circle.


Can you see the concentric eyewalls they are talking about?
NWS in San Francisco has just issued a red flag warning, but not for the usual reason of strong dry offshore winds. Some of the models are indicating the likelihood of strong but mostly dry thunderstorms developing out of the upper level outflow from Guillermo entraining into an upper level low SW of SF. The forecasters are calling for FREQUENT lightning and evaporative downbursts. Meanwhile, coastal SSTs remain elevated, in the lower to mid 60s F.
More news from Taiwan's capital which show that they are pretty much relaxed with Soudelor, as LAgotNoWeather (#338) and SAR had pointed out ...

Thousands flock to Comic Exhibition
ANIME ATTRACTION: As of noon yesterday, the exhibition featuring more than 70 publishers at 610 booths had already drawn about 50,000 enthusiastic visitors
Taipei Times, Fri, Aug 07, 2015
... Although Typhoon Soudelor is expected to bring wind and rain to the nation in the next two days, Chinese Animation and Comic Publishers Association secretary-general Roger Kao said the exhibition would not be canceled or postponed and would continue as planned.
Safety measures have been taken and fans would be asked to line up indoors instead of outdoors, he said.
Last year, the fair attracted 601,000 visitors and generated about NT$260 million in sales, according to the association.
Quoting 314. Naga5000:



Correct, I just got finished looking this up myself.


Wrong the Strong El-Nino has caused and is continuing to cause increased Easterly Trades so strong that the Saharan Dust is being carried across the MDR region. Some of these Dust plumes have been significant. Look it up all you want but that's not the whole story. The cooler than normal MDR is result of increased trades causing big time SAL Plumes thus lowering SST's across the MDR.

From NOAA

2015 Updated Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary

NOAA's updated 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a below-normal hurricane season is very likely. The outlook calls for a 90% chance of a below-normal season and a 10% chance of a near-normal season, with no realistic expectation that the season will be above-normal. This 90% probability of a below-normal season is the highest given by NOAA for any such season since their seasonal hurricane outlooks began in August 1998. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.

The main difference between this updated outlook and the pre-season outlook issued 27 May is that there is now an even higher chance of a below-normal season (90% compared to 70%), along with lower chances of a near-normal (10% compared to 20%) or an above-normal (negligible compared to 10%) season.

The likelihood of a below-normal hurricane season has increased for three main reasons. First, El Nio has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA's latest prediction calls for a significant El Nio to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season. Second, atmospheric conditions that are exceptionally non-conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation are now present in response to El Nio. These conditions, which include strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion, are predicted to continue through the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001). Third, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across the MDR are predicted to remain below average, and to also remain much cooler than the rest of the global tropics. Cooler Atlantic SSTs are associated with stronger trade winds, and further reduce the ability of storms to form and gain strength in the MDR.

Based on the current and expected conditions, combined with model forecasts, we estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2015 hurricane season:

6-10 Named Storms, which includes the three named storms to date
1-4 Hurricanes
0-1 Major Hurricanes
Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 25%-70% of the median.
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years.
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:



Wrong the Strong El-Nino has caused and is continuing to cause increased Easterly Trades so strong that the Saharan Dust is being carried across the MDR region. Some of these Dust plumes have been significant. Look it up all you want but that's not the whole story.
All mets here say the same thing, +Nao and El nino is causing strong trades increasing dust over the atlantic, but i'm sure there is way more factors here.
Quoting 351. StormTrackerScott:



Wrong the Strong El-Nino has caused and is continuing to cause increased Easterly Trades so strong that the Saharan Dust is being carried across the MDR region. Some of these Dust plumes have been significant. Look it up all you want but that's not the whole story.
We get these dust plumes even in la nina years and imo the dust hasn't been any worse here than usual.
Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone's eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is "choked" by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.
Correct, I just got finished looking this up myself.


thank you for your support naga
Quoting 354. BahaHurican:

We get these dust plumes even in la nina years and imo the dust hasn't been any worse here than usual.
It has been worst than usual.
The likelihood of a below-normal hurricane season has increased for three main reasons. First, El Ni�o has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA's latest prediction calls for a significant El Ni�o to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season. Second, atmospheric conditions that are exceptionally non-conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation are now present in response to El Ni�o. These conditions, which include strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion, are predicted to continue through the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001). Third, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across the MDR are predicted to remain below average, and to also remain much cooler than the rest of the global tropics. Cooler Atlantic SSTs are associated with stronger trade winds, and further reduce the ability of storms to form and gain strength in the MDR.


please note the absense of NOAA mentioning the SAL
Quoting 354. BahaHurican:

We get these dust plumes even in la nina years and imo the dust hasn't been any worse here than usual.


True but the SAL plumes have been stronger across the MDR region due to increased trades from the East. Look at it like this anytime you have very low pressures across the E-Pac and high pressures across the Atlantic air moves toward the lower pressure. Depending on how low the pressures are and how high the pressures air determine the strength of winds moving toward the lower pressure.

This case being 2015 Strong El-Nino causing very low pressures across the Pacific and near record high pressures across the Atlantic at times has caused very strong Easterlies all summer thus pulling off huge thick SAL Plumes off Africa thus lowering SST's across the MDR. Again MR Scott come thru with some teachings for the BLOG in need.

Perfect illustration below.
Quoting 358. ricderr:

The likelihood of a below-normal hurricane season has increased for three main reasons. First, El Ni�o has strengthened as predicted, and NOAA's latest prediction calls for a significant El Ni�o to continue through the remainder of the hurricane season. Second, atmospheric conditions that are exceptionally non-conducive to tropical storm and hurricane formation are now present in response to El Ni�o. These conditions, which include strong vertical wind shear and enhanced sinking motion, are predicted to continue through the peak months (August-October, ASO) of the hurricane season across the Atlantic hurricane Main Development Region (MDR, which spans the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic Ocean between 9oN-21.5oN; Goldenberg et al. 2001). Third, sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) across the MDR are predicted to remain below average, and to also remain much cooler than the rest of the global tropics. Cooler Atlantic SSTs are associated with stronger trade winds, and further reduce the ability of storms to form and gain strength in the MDR.


please note the absense of NOAA mentioning the SAL


It's common sense Ric.
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PUSH ASIDE THE MONSOON MOISTURE FOR QUICK DRYING
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IT WILL ALSO DEEPEN UP OUR MARINE LAYER TO
PRODUCE MORE EXTENSE COASTAL CLOUDS...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO SNEAK INTO
PARTS OF THE INLAND EMPIRE BY SUNRISE FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING COOLER
WEATHER TO THE ENTIRE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGE. SOME HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEK SO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT A NEW LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
OFF THE COAST WILL DAMPEN THAT TREND. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
REMAIN IN BETWEEN THE WESTERN TROUGH AND THE EASTERN RIDGE WITH SOME
SEASONAL WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT WOULD BRING IN SOME MONSOON MOISTURE AGAIN
NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

Looks like another warm day today however.


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Thu, 06 Aug 10:31 am PDT
Most Recent Observation: Thu, 06 Aug 10:20 am PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
06 Aug 10:20 am PDT 90 42 19 E 8G13 OK
06 Aug 10:10 am PDT 90 44 20 ESE 6G10 OK
06 Aug 10:00 am PDT 89 44 21 ESE 7G11 OK
Ada Monzón ‏@adamonzon Jul 28 View translation
Se considera eventos polvo Sahara 2015 son de los más significativos y de comienzo temprano en récord.
Trying to protect itself but dry air in the vicinity. Eye appears to be shrinking a bit?

From Mr. Tibbetts @ the NWS


El Nino and Saharan dust positive for Cayman
Posted By: Content EditorPosted date: Thursday, July 30, 2015in: Local NewsNo Comments
John Tibbetts, acting director general of the National Weather Service (NWS)
John Tibbetts, acting director general of the National Weather Service (NWS)
Saharan dust spreading out over the Atlantic. (Image: NASA)
Saharan dust spreading out over the Atlantic. (Image: NASA)
By: Monique Spence

While tropical storm development in the Pacific Ocean may see an increase this year, the opposite is expected to occur in the Atlantic Ocean, which bodes well for Cayman.

John Tibbetts, acting director general of the National Weather Service (NWS) of the Cayman Islands, said, El Nino, which the NWS anticipated would develop over summer and fall of 2015, appears stronger than predicted. El Nino is a warming of the central to eastern tropical Pacific that occurs every two to seven years, on average, and affects weather around the world.

The prediction for this year was for a weak El Nino to start the year and become a bit stronger during the year. Observations and resultant forecast updates support a stronger El Nino than expected earlier in the season. The general impact on the hurricane season is to decrease tropical storm development in the Atlantic Ocean and increase tropical storm development in the Pacific Ocean,%u201D said Mr Tibbetts.

In addition to El Nino, wind sheer, lower than average Atlantic ocean temperatures and an increase in Saharan dust is expected to contribute one of the least active seasons the Atlantic basin has seen since the middle of the 20th century.

Jason Dunion, a research meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, explained how these dust storms which consist of a mixture of sand and dust from the vast desert area that covers most of North Africa can serve as hurricane suppressants on this side of the Atlantic.

These Saharan air layers, as we call them, have a lot of dry air, there' a lot of aerosol dust, and a lot of strong winds,%u201D Mr Dunion said. All three of these factors work against hurricane formation, he added.

South Florida newspaper Sun Sentinel reported that the abnormally heavy concentrations that currently are blanketing the main region of the Atlantic where storms develop is the cause of the thick haze Floridians experienced this month. Though Cayman is not known for having a lot of haze Mr Tibbetts mentioned there have been traces of the dust in our atmosphere. Over the past week or so haze has been logged in the national weather service registers, however the amount was not significant enough to limit visibility. This is rather typical of the amounts of haze we get, he said.

Mr Tibbetts also confirmed the more Saharan dust increases in the Atlantic the greater the effect will be on the hurricane season within the region. The presence of Sahara dust has been found to have a negative impact upon the development of storms. The greater the outbreak of Saharan dust the greater the impact generally,he noted.

In April the NWS published an extended range forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane activity and Landfall Strike probability for 2015 on its site. The Atlantic Basin Seasonal Hurricane Forecast for this year predicts a below 2013 average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. Despite the forecast for below2013 average activity, the NWS are reminding residents it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted, the NWS site stated.


There are quite a few small islands to the north and east of Taiwan.
Very soon they will probably be suffering from very strong winds even though they are not in the eye wall area lets hope that they are well prepared.

Quoting 357. Gearsts:

It has been worst than usual.


Anything to try to combat me even though they know its not true. It is what it is so i just deal with and keep being right. I think some should stick to Climate Change.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 AUG 2015 Time : 171500 UTC
Lat : 21:29:59 N Lon : 126:59:51 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 937.7mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 30 km

Center Temp : +13.7C Cloud Region Temp : -63.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 181km
- Environmental MSLP : 1000mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 32.4 degrees



Quoting 362. Gearsts:

Ada Monzón ‏@adamonzon Jul 28 View translation
Se considera eventos polvo Sahara 2015 son de los más significativos y de comienzo temprano en récord.


4.14 AEI index is just absolutely UNREAL and to think we aren't anywhere near the peak of this El-Nino yet! This means early Fall in the East folks!
@NWSCPC 9m9 minutes ago
Latest SST constructed analog forecast continues with +PNA signature across North America for upcoming winter.

Quoting 369. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@NWSCPC 9m9 minutes ago
Latest SST constructed analog forecast continues with +PNA signature across North America for upcoming winter.




What dos that mean for me
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:



4.14 AEI index is just absolutely UNREAL and to think we aren't anywhere near the peak of this El-Nino yet! This means early Fall in the East folks!
Okay so after the el nino is done will you be posting coverage like this for La nina? Surely you're going to give fair attention to each am I right?
It's common sense Ric.

you know what scott......i agree with you....it would seem like that....however.....i...as joe amateur....no formal schooling....rather than go on what would seem like common sense to me...i look these things up....and as i stated earlier...and naga also looked up....it's not the case....peer reviewed studies have proven otherwise
Quoting 369. TropicalAnalystwx13:

@NWSCPC 9m9 minutes ago
Latest SST constructed analog forecast continues with +PNA signature across North America for upcoming winter.


And that's good for?
Quoting 372. washingtonian115:

Okay so after the el nino is done will you be posting coverage like this for La nina? Surely you're going to give fair attention to each am I right?
I have that cover
378. vis0

Quoting 333. hydrus:

Greetings Keep..I am growing more concerned with the possibility of another rough winter.
Rough as in bitter cold - record cold (BTW with that and STILL Earth, the entire PLANET is warming)
or
Rough as in record snowfall
or
Rough in hearing Cantore expound on "DID YA HEAR THAT thunder snow!"
Quoting 378. vis0:


Rough as in bitter cold - record cold (BTW with that and STILL Earth, the entire PLANET is warming)
or
Rough as in record snowfall
or
Rough in hearing Cantore expound on "DID YA HEAR THAT thunder snow!"



If I have to pick SOMETHING to worry about this winter in DC I'll worry about flooding rains.
TROPICAL STORM HILDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
200 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2015

Hilda's cloud pattern has rapidly increased in organization during
the past 12 hours. Conventional satellite imagery reveals a tiny
tropical cyclone with a nearly symmetric dense overcast and a
prominent band over the northern half of the circulation. A 1503
UTC Windsat pass showed a closed low-level ring of convection,
suggesting that the inner core of the tropical cyclone is already
well established. The initial intensity estimate is raised to 50 kt
in best agreement with an earlier AMSU pass.

The initial motion has been due west or 270/11. Nothing has
changed regarding the forecast philosophy in the previous advisory.
Hilda should continue moving westward and then turn west-
northwestward in about 36 hours as it nears the western periphery of
a subtropical ridge to its north. The cyclone should begin to
respond to a weakness in the ridge located to the east of the
Hawaiian Islands and turn northwestward at a significantly reduced
forward speed by 96 hours. The official track forecast has been
shifted significantly to the left during the first 48 hours but
still lies on the right side of the guidance envelope. The track
forecast after 48 hours is also left of the previous forecast but
is closer to the multi-model consensus late in the forecast period.

There are no obvious obstacles to additional intensification in the
short term, except for somewhat drier and more stable air mass to
the north and west of the cyclone. Given Hilda's small size, it is
assumed that the entrainment of this air is not likely to be an
inhibitor. The SHIPS model output indicates less conducive
thermodynamic variables in 2 to 3 days which should halt any further
intensification. Once the cyclone gains enough latitude in the
central Pacific after 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear
associated with a mid- to upper-level trough near the longitude of
Hawaii should result in weakening. In fact, the shear could be
strong enough late in the period to cause a decoupling of the
cyclone as depicted in global model fields. The new intensity
forecast is boosted much higher in the short term to account for the
current strengthening trend and is closest to the LGEM. The
intensity forecast is near or below the multi-model consensus after
72 hours to emphasize the weakening expected at that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.7N 133.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.6N 135.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.7N 137.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.1N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 13.7N 141.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 15.5N 145.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 147.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 18.5N 150.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Quoting 289. sar2401:

It sure looks like the focus of the vast majority of that rain was in the Tampa area. The much lower totals for stations surrounding Tampa are pretty good evidence of this. How much of the Tampa rain was from the low that was ex-95L? I was under the impression that it was around 10"-15", which makes up a pretty good part of the total, if that's true.

We had a rare occurrence last night - nocturnal thunderstorms. The developed on an old outflow boundary just to west of me, and a trough to the north supplied just enough energy to act as the kicker. I couldn't stay awake past 1:00 this morning but the storms were already developing by then. According to the chart from my PWS, the storms got here about 3:30 and dropped 0.18". Not exactly a toad choker but better than the nothing I've had the past week. There are some thunderstorms around this morning, and all I can hope for is enough cloud cover to keep the temperature in check. It's already 91 with a dewpoint of 79 so my free sauna bath is operation. :-)



Actually, that image deceivingly looks that way, but Sarasota/Bradenton has been in a weird local rain hole all year even though it on average receives 58 inches per year whereas Tampa International airport on average is the driest station in Central FL and the Tampa Bay area, receiving a climatological year average rainfall of 46 inches which is 6-10 inches lower than the average in other Tampa Bay area official stations. With that said though, the Tampa Bay area did get some of the heaviest totals, but heavy rains have been widespread and above average on the entire west coast of FL from the big bend down to Ft. Myers accept for Sarasota Bradenton which has oddly a rainy season deficit and a year to day deficit. Also these above average rains have extended about 1/3 inland in most areas, and then by the time you get to the interior to the east side of the state, rainfall has been near average with some regions of above or below. East Central FL and the interior was once below average by a lot in June, but the west coast torrential rain events have impacted the east side of the state positively enough to shift the region from well below to closer to average rainfall.

Having already nearly reached the average year to date precip here with 53.24 inches since Jan 1st so far, and a whopping 39.4 inches since June first, we are incredibly saturated here, even after no rain since the washout on Monday, the ground still looks like we had a few inches of rain recently, even with the sandy soil here.

Some areas have had even more, amazingly some places have had 45-55 inches since June first just north of the Bay area, which has led to persistent suburban and river flooding. The anclote river has gotten into it's top 5 most major flood events on record.

BTW long term guidance brings a return to a similar pattern with widespread rains from stalled fronts in the extended period starting with mid to late week next week.

Also, it has seemed like your summer has been very dry and brutally hot up there. With such sandy soil here, that much heat and dryness would turn our grass to sand dunes. But I think the soil does help hold in moisture better up there due to more organic compost. Last summer for example when I returned to Tallahassee, the grass at my apartment was just as green as here at the house in the Tampa Bay area despite that Tallahassee had it's driest summer on record and also had one of it's hottest. The amount of heat and and little rain they had would completely kill the grass here. The soil is more clay-like there though, so it holds in moisture better, the problem is it's more prone to flash flooding than the soil here as a result.

The University of Florida notes that due to most areas having sandy soil in Florida, it dries out and gets hot easier due to a lack of organic compost. They note that grass here needs at least 2 inches a week to keep a healthy lawn, and at least some rain every 3 days, they note that the same species of grass will only need 2 inches of rain per month and rain once every 10 days to stay healthy and green up north due to more organic rich soil, being much older soil.
Quoting 333. hydrus:

Greetings Keep..I am growing more concerned with the possibility of another rough winter.


November-Type Gales Hit England in August — Looks Like a Weird Atmospheric Response to El Nino + Climate Change May Be Unfolding


They say that a picture can paint a thousand words. How about a graph that exceeds 100 El Ninos? It may not jump out at you at first, but that’s what we’re looking at above.

Link
Am I just especially prone to deja-vu, or do some people keep posting the same articles over and over?