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Major Storm Surge, Massive Rains as Hurricane Hermine Sweeps Ashore

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 4:14 AM GMT on September 02, 2016

Widespread storm surge was barreling into Florida’s northeast Gulf Coast late Thursday night with the approach of Hurricane Hermine. The warm waters of the eastern Gulf fueled an well-advertised strengthening of Hermine on Thursday afternoon and evening. Hermine was an 80-mph Category 1 hurricane as of the midnight update from the National Hurricane Center. NHC placed the center of Hermine about 40 miles southeast of Tallahassee, FL, just an hour or two from making landfall. Thunderstorms were wrapped around a semi-distinct eye, and heavy bands of rain were clearly evident on radar. An especially intense belt of rain was moving across the northernmost FL peninsula late Thursday.

A Hurricane Warning remained in effect from Suwanee River to Mexico Beach, FL. A variety of other hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings plastered the Gulf and Atlantic coasts from Florida all the way to northern New Jersey (see below for more on Hermine’s expected track). With Hurricane Gaston also active in the Central Atlantic, we now have multiple hurricanes in the Atlantic for the first time since the first week of September 2012, when Hurricane Leslie and Hurricane Michael were both active. Hermine will be the first hurricane to strike Florida since Wilma hit South Florida as a Category 3 storm in October 2005. Hermine will also be the first hurricane to strike the U.S. since Hurricane Arthur hit North Carolina on July 3, 2014 as a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds.


Figure X. Hermine approaching landfall in Florida at 6:15 pm EDT September 1, 2016.

Observations this evening
A Personal Weather Station (PWS) at Alligator Point in the northern eyewall of Hermine measured sustained winds of 59 mph, gusting to 78 mph, at 10:25 pm EDT, and had picked up 2.15” of rain since 11 am.

Tyndall AFB Tower C, located about 20 miles south of Apalachicola, Florida, recorded sustained winds of 61 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 8:50 pm EDT. The anemometer on the tower is at an elevation of 35 meters, which is higher than the standard 10 meters used to reference surface winds, so these winds need to be scaled down to what they would be at a height of 10 meters for a valid comparison to other surface wind measurements.

A PWS on Cedar Key, Florida recorded sustained winds of 44 mph, gusting to 52 mph, at 11:15 pm EDT.

A coastal C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida, in the stronger eastern eyewall of Hermine, measured sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11 pm EDT.


Figure 2. Regional radar of Hurricane Hermine at 11 pm EDT September 1, 2016, with three time traces of the storm surge at water gages in Apalachicola, Cedar Key and Tampa, Florida. The storm surge (green line) had peaked in Tampa at this time, but was still rising at Apalachicola and Cedar Key. Surge images were taken from NOAA Tides and Currents page for Hermine.


Storm surge a major concern overnight
Even after Hermine’s expected landfall between 1 and 2 am Friday near the head of Apalachee Bay, the strong winds east and south of its center will continue to shove water into the bay and points east along Florida’s Big Bend. This is the bay’s first direct hit from a hurricane in half a century—since Alma, in 1966. NHC warned that surge levels could reach as high as 9 feet in parts of Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend. Fortunately, this is one of the most sparsely settled parts of the Florida coast, but widespread inundation in such places as the flood-prone community of Cedar Key will have a major impact. By 11 pm EDT Thursday, the surge had climbed to 7.2 feet at Cedar Key and 4.0 feet at Apalachicola. HIgh tide will be around 3 am EDT in Cedar Key, which means that the total water level (surge plus tide) could still be rising even after the surge itself peaks.

According to the U-Surge project, headed by storm surge expert Hal Needham, Hermine is likely to produce the highest water level for many locations between St. Marks and Clearwater since the March 1993 “Storm of the Century”. That extremely powerful winter-type storm produced a record surge of 6 to 12 feet across the region.

The forecast for Hermine
Hermine will be rolling along or near the Southeast coast on Friday, emerging off North Carolina’s Outer Banks by Saturday. At that point, Hermine will probably have undergone at least a partial conversion into an extratropical (post-tropical storm), deriving energy from atmospheric dynamics rather than from the heat energy of the ocean.

By later in the weekend, however, Hermine may regain some of its tropical characteristics. Computer models indicate it will slow down Sunday into Monday and perhaps even carry out a tightly looping path east of the Delmarva and south of Long Island, NY. Ocean temperatures are more than 2°C above average in this region. This may be warm enough to allow Hermine’s winds to restrengthen close to hurricane force near its center by Monday or Tuesday, regardless of whether it is classified as a tropical or post-tropical storm by that point. Even if it does become post-tropical, NHC will continue issuing advisories on Hermine as long as it remains a significant threat to land.


Figure 3. The official track forecast for Hurricane Hermine as of 11 pm EDT Thursday. Hermine’s dramatic slowdown is evident in the period from Sunday to Tuesday.

The biggest impact from Hermine after landfall will be a swath of torrential rain stretching from far north Florida to eastern North Carolina, extending from the coast up to 200 miles inland. Flash flood watches are in effect from Georgia to Virginia along a belt northwest of tropical storm warnings. Rains of 5” - 10”, with local totals on the order of 15”, will affect far northern Florida and southern Georgia, with 4” - 8” totals widespread up to the Carolinas. Rains of 1” - 5” and gusty winds will work their way up the Delaware, New Jersey, and New York coastlines from Saturday into Sunday and perhaps Monday--a very unwelcome prospect for Labor Day beach goers.

A zone of very heavy rain (perhaps 5” to 10”) and stronger wind could develop in parts of the eastern Delmarva and/or southern New Jersey on Sunday and Monday, depending on how close ex-Hermine gets to the Mid-Atlantic coast when it slows down.

Hurricane Watch continues for Hawaii ahead of Category 3 Lester
It’s quite rare to have two separate parts of the United States threatened by two hurricanes at the same time. So it was on Thursday night, with Hurricane Lester continuing to bear down on Hawaii. As of 11 pm EDT Thursday (5:00 pm HST), Lester was about 600 miles east of Hilo. Lester is again a major hurricane, with top sustained winds of 125 mph. Computer models agree on taking Lester along a west-northwest path that will parallel the Hawaiian island chain on Saturday. Uncertainty remains over how strong Lester will be at that point (most likely a Category 1 hurricane) and how close its path will be to the islands. The model guidance is now in fairly close agreement on a track just north of the islands, but perhaps within 100 miles—close enough to require continued vigilance.

We’ll be back on Friday with more than one update on the evolving Hermine situation.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 497. Patrap:







Yo models CHILL, Florida needs at least 2 weeks in between landfalls :P
Quoting 475. 900MB:

Anyone notice that the NHC has this back to a hurricane at 8am Monday? Whaaah?

INIT 02/1500Z 31.9N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
12H 03/0000Z 33.5N 79.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 35.4N 76.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0000Z 36.7N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 04/1200Z 37.5N 72.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 05/1200Z 38.1N 72.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 06/1200Z 38.8N 71.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 07/1200Z 39.3N 71.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL



After Sandy, is it protocol to call hurricane-force, non-tropical systems "Super Storm"?
Quoting 482. AussieStorm:

Did any of the models predict Hermine making landfall in the Florida Panhandle 10 days out?

I remember a few years ago, The Euro had Sandy pegged from the start.

It appears that CLP5 was very close @ 8-9 days out.

SEL2

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 462
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
745 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN
COASTAL WATERS

* EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 745 AM UNTIL
400 PM EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR A FEW TORNADOES WILL LIKEWISE PERSIST IN
ADVANCE OF THE STORM CENTER AS BROKEN BANDS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
MOVE INLAND FROM THE ATLANTIC...AND REACH NORTH CAROLINA BY
MIDDAY-EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH
GEORGIA TO 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 461. WATCH NUMBER 461 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER
745 AM EDT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 18040.


...THOMPSON
I think it straddles the coast starting around Winyah Bay (Georgetown/Myrtle Beach) up through Buxton, NC, mainly due to the prevailing angle of the coastline.

Quoting 467. lexslamman:


Still looks to me like this comes off shore anywhere between Georgetown, SC and Nags Head, NC. Too early and too much uncertainty to predict if and where it stalls - we know Hermine slows down as she interacts with the blocking high, but how much and when is still up in the air. The models don't have a good grasp on that yet. I don't like what the GFS has been telling us.
Tides are gonna get bad here with a strenghening Hermine driving water into the Bay. Major flooding expected.


Quoting 494. CybrTeddy:

Well, I said that 99L wouldn't develop and I got hit by a hurricane. I half expected to find dead crow on my doorstep this morning.



How was it Teddy?
92L shaping up well on sat pics this morning. some banding is appearing signifying that the system is getting slowly organised.
Yeah, you don't get to the ocean without a bridge or a boat. Or without expecting to get wet.

Quoting 499. Methurricanes:

Once this thing passes Savannah I think it is basically done weakening. Because after that coastal land is sort of a strong word for anything withing 20 miles of the open Atlantic in SC.
Quoting 508. stoormfury:

92L shaping up well on sat pics this morning. some banding is appearing signifying that the system is getting slowly organised.

Looking at it, I think this will perform much differently that 99L/TD9/Hermine for the worst.
Hopefully not.
I have two questions about statements in the 11 a.m. Hermine discussion:

"Strengthening through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the
system moves offshore."

What is the diabatic process and how does it strengthen a storm?

"but model fields do not show it undergoing a full extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a
warm seclusion structure"

What is a 'warm seclusion structure' and does a 'warm seclusion structure' count as tropical or extratropical?

Thanks!
Quoting 415. Brock31:



Man...doesn't it look like she's heading towards Savannah?

Really dumping here in Wilmington now. The nice rain isn't helping my motivation after a minimal nights sleep thanks to my dog.

So far in the Savannah area, the impact has been surprisingly minimal. That could change as the storm passes. My brother 60 miles west in Metter has received much more rain and wind.
Quoting 510. HaoleboySurfEC:

Yeah, you don't get to the ocean without a bridge or a boat. Or without expecting to get wet.




Well it IS called the low country. Was based there at the Air Station in Beaufort for a few years.
Quoting 492. number4steel:

I work for at&t. I am also a shop steward. as a union company rep all he has to say is that it is unsafe and ask his manager to put it in writing that it is safe (never in 18 yrs has one put it in writing yet). then turn his van around and go back to the shop. contact his shop steward , t.v. installs are non-vital to network ops. it takes a set rocks to do it, but I have done it before. they preach safety , then they have to answer when the choir sings it. after all the company line is all accidents are your fault, because you made a judgement call

Seems like a sound idea to me. When we had our 1000 year flood last year, he was out. Sent to an install and water was beginning to rise in the road. He was told something along the line if there was not a barrier put up, to do the install. He said he did not think it was a good idea and took pictures and sent it to them, saying just so you know.. this is what I am seeing. They still wanted him to park the truck and do the install. He did the install, came back to a vehicle in the water that was almost floated away from where it was parked. He and the vehicle ended up ok (well it had to be towed).
Quoting 494. CybrTeddy:

Well, I said that 99L wouldn't develop and I got hit by a hurricane. I half expected to find dead crow on my doorstep this morning.


I think it shows that patience really is a virtue. All storms carve out their own history, they are all different. There are some that blow up right away and there are some that take time to organize. The end result is what matters. This system fought through bad conditions and in the end became a pretty potent system.

At least for me, it changes how I look at these systems. Looking at 92L, I believe it has potential. It does not have a ton of model support, but as 99L got closer to the Gulf, a lot of systems dropped development and then picked it up again. I will keep an eye on this system as well, since it is not far from impacting the Islands.
Quoting 509. Patrap:




The southern core half of Hermine looks to be out over water by the time it gets to the SC/NC border. Really going to be interesting to see the interaction, if any, with that aspect.
Quoting 512. BaltimoreBrian:

I have two questions about statements in the 11 a.m. Hermine discussion:

"Strengthening through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the
system moves offshore."

What is the diabetic process and how does it strengthen a storm?

"but model fields do not show it undergoing a full extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a
warm seclusion structure"

What is a 'warm seclusion structure' and does a 'warm seclusion structure' count as tropical or extratropical?

Thanks!


Hey Brian,

Diabatic in thermodynamics means when two systems exchange energy because of a temperature difference. So it will be in a favorable thermodynamic set up to strengthen. Warm seclusion I believe means more of a sub-tropical storm, still mostly warm core. Not fully tropical, but not completely extra-tropical.

Quoting 478. CaribBoy:

92L you better slow down now! Fast mover = south = weak = bust


Maybe not down the road.. Seen that before. ;)

Ain't all bout you, kid. :)

You live on a beautiful, tropical island. That'd be good enough for me. I bet I wouldn't be on an internet blog much.

I know it's been dry. Don't worry. Things change. Soon enough, you'll have a serious system and you'll wish it was somewhere else. Just a matter of time.
In reference to this tweet, could Hermine (or any system) become tropical again after it is designated post-tropical? (Not that it would really change the impacts.)
Amazing sunset last night from Santa Rosa Beach. Hermine was kind to us on her west side.
Quoting 512. BaltimoreBrian:

I have two questions about statements in the 11 a.m. Hermine discussion:

"Strengthening through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the
system moves offshore."

What is the diabetic process and how does it strengthen a storm?

"but model fields do not show it undergoing a full extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a
warm seclusion structure"

What is a 'warm seclusion structure' and does a 'warm seclusion structure' count as tropical or extratropical?

Thanks!

diabatic process: strengthening occurs because of the difference in temperature--it's how Alex became a hurricane in January.

warm seclusion: This write up on Sandy does a good job, I think, explaining Warm Seclusion. https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/8243/h ybridization-sandy
also ryan maue wrote a thesis on it. http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/object/fsu%3 A180923
2016 Hurricane Season GOES East Satellite Animation - May thru August 2016

This is an animation using imagery derived from the GOES East satellite. The area in this imagery is called the Hurricane Sector. The animation contains EXACTLY 4,798 individual images.

Features include:
Exact moments when all named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes formed.
Precise data on peak intensity of all storms.
Thumbnail imagery of all storms at their peak intensity at each stage of their formation.
Tracks of each storm.
SPECIAL daily count up from 10/24/2005 - the date Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida (the last time a major hurricane hit the USA.) As of 08/31/2016...3963 days have passed. Day 4000 will fall on 10/06/2016.

Quoting 507. Grothar:




How was it Teddy?


Surprisingly rough. The first squall line that came through yesterday evening caused a tornado that did pretty decent damage nearby. I think a lot of people were complacent with this storm considering how far north it was expected to make landfall and how long it had been since an actual hurricane had hit Florida.
Minimal impact thus far in Charleston. Heavy rain has been much further inland. Will have to see what kind wind impacts we have when the storm skirts west of us this afternoon.
Hurricane Hermine reapproaching the coast...

Quoting 512. BaltimoreBrian:

I have two questions about statements in the 11 a.m. Hermine discussion:

"Strengthening through a combination of diabatic and baroclinic processes is shown after the
system moves offshore."

What is the diabetic process and how does it strengthen a storm?

"but model fields do not show it undergoing a full extratropical transition, as it instead appears to acquire a
warm seclusion structure"

What is a 'warm seclusion structure' and does a 'warm seclusion structure' count as tropical or extratropical?

Thanks!

Don't know Brian. But, speaking for myself, I'm sure there's insulin involved! ;-}
still there... goodness this would drive so much water into the coast

Bring on 92!
Just bring it on a sun or mon so I can be there this time.

Dammit Hermine, you were supposed to hit FL's ec Monday! Da heck?
Quoting 520. AllStar17:

In reference to this tweet, could Hermine (or any system) become tropical again after it is designated post-tropical? (Not that it would really change the impacts.)


I know there was a lot of debate about Ivan in 2004.

It lost tropical characteristics over Virginia, but the remnant low got caught in an anti-cyclonic eddy and ended up sliding down the coast and regaining tropical characteristics in the GOM. Weather nerds everywhere almost came to blows as to whether this new tropical system was "Ivan" or a new storm. In the end, it was decided that it was in fact Tropical Depression Ivan that made landfall in Louisiana a week after Hurricane Ivan made landfall in Alabama.
call me if you detect a inbound sharknado,...


Presslord, 5 min ago.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
My goodness ... GFS 12z expands #Hermine into a monster late Sun into Labor Day.

Quoting 531. CBJeff:



I know there was a lot of debate about Ivan in 2004.

It lost tropical characteristics over Virginia, but the remnant low got caught in an anti-cyclonic eddy and ended up sliding down the coast and regaining tropical characteristics in the GOM. Weather nerds everywhere almost came to blows as to whether this new tropical system was "Ivan" or a new storm. In the end, it was decided that it was in fact Tropical Depression Ivan that made landfall in Louisiana a week after Hurricane Ivan made landfall in Alabama.


I do recall that. Ivan was of course a memorable storm, though I'm sure many think of the first landfall and don't recall the fact that it swing back around and made another landfall. I'm not sure we'll ever see that again.
Quoting 513. JParsons:


So far in the Savannah area, the impact has been surprisingly minimal. That could change as the storm passes. My brother 60 miles west in Metter has received much more rain and wind.


Wind still very light here. Still raining steadily .We're at about 3" or just shy of that. The bulk of the 5-6" stuff remained just offshore.
Wow, 92L not backing down after basically being convection-less near the Cape Verdes. Looks like we have another persistent "seed" to contend with.

Some of my family is traveling east across the FL Panhandle today. They noticed many power trucks and some trees down in Tallahassee (power out). Starbucks was so crowded they didn't even try to go in. Damage was then getting worse the farther east they went.
Quoting 432. FunnelVortex:



Won't happen.

Why not?
Please elaborate on statements like this.
Im glad I let my kids stayed home

A message from NEW HANOVER COUNTY SCHOOLS
Good afternoon parents,
The National Weather Service has adjusted the forecast and we are now expecting a greater rainfall. Due to this change, students in New Hanover County will be released from school one hour early: Elementary Schools at 1:30 pm, Middle and High Schools at 2:30 PM, and the Early colleges at 12:30 PM. Staff – Please consult with your Principal or Building Supervisor regarding your release.

Thank you
Quoting 534. AllStar17:



I do recall that. Ivan was of course a memorable storm, though I'm sure many think of the first landfall and don't recall the fact that it swing back around and made another landfall. I'm not sure we'll ever see that again.

For what's it worth, I was in the "That's not Ivan" camp. Pressure isn't a thing, it's a condition. Circulation is a thing. So once the circulation stops, the named storm should stop with it. If the remnant low manages to create a new circulation, then it's just that: new.

Wow, I didn't realize that 12-year-old gripe was still gnawing at me.

I gotta get a life...
Quoting 482. AussieStorm:

Did any of the models predict Hermine making landfall in the Florida Panhandle 10 days out?

I remember a few years ago, The Euro had Sandy pegged from the start.


From Aug 20. Location correct but route to get there not so good.


Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 2m2 minutes ago
A loop westward Sunday night would be devastating for coastal surge. Amazing atmospheric dynamics/energy #Hermine
Quoting 520. AllStar17:

In reference to this tweet, could Hermine (or any system) become tropical again after it is designated post-tropical? (Not that it would really change the impacts.)


The short answer is yes, and it has happened before, and undoubtedly will again in the future. Hermine will not however become a fully baroclinic (little remaining energy contribution from latent heat release from convection), storm, more like a subtropical storm which gets energy both from large scale cold air sinking and warm air rising, and from latent heat release from convection. As the large scale temperature gradient reduces and then vanishes, early next week, the storm may again become a textbook tropical cyclone.
Quoting 541. CBJeff:


For what's it worth, I was in the "That's not Ivan" camp. Pressure isn't a thing, it's a condition. Circulation is a thing. So once the circulation stops, the named storm should stop with it. If the remnant low manages to create a new circulation, then it's just that: new.

Wow, I didn't realize that 12-year-old gripe was still gnawing at me.

I gotta get a life...

But you just contradicted yourself there by referring to it as a 'low'. If it's the same low from the original storm, well than doesn't that make it the same storm? Lol
Quoting 410. Patrap:


If Hermine moves off sooner and further south, there will be big problems....big problems...
Quoting 539. Grothar:



Even with a mid-strength tropical storm (50-60 mph sustained) that would be catastrophic coastal and areal flooding for Cape May and the Delaware Bay, and that's before we take into consideration that a few feet of surge may also be pushed onshore as she flirts with landfall.
 
949  
WGUS52 KCAE 021556  
FFWCAE  
SCC009-011-017-027-075-022000-  
/O.NEW.KCAE.FF.W.0009.160902T1556Z-160902T2000Z/  
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
FLASH FLOOD WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1156 AM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...  
ORANGEBURG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
BARNWELL COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
BAMBERG COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
SOUTHWESTERN CLARENDON COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
* UNTIL 400 PM EDT  
 
* AT 1152 AM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED HEAVY  
RAIN AND NUISANCE FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES HAVE FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED  
TO BEGIN SHORTLY.  
 
* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...  
ORANGEBURG...BARNWELL...BAMBERG...DENMARK...BROOKD ALE...  
WILLISTON...BLACKVILLE...HOLLY HILL...BRANCHVILLE...BOWMAN...  
ELLOREE...SANTEE...NORTH...EHRHARDT...SPRINGFIELD. ..HILDA...  
CAMERON...NEESES...NORWAY AND EUTAWVILLE.  
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE  
WARNED AREA.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TURN AROUND...DON'T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD  
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3312 8119 3311 8136 3316 8153 3311 8160  
3312 8166 3366 8118 3370 8109 3346 8014  
3345 8022 3330 8025 3327 8030 3328 8035  
3326 8036 3326 8043 3329 8049 3333 8051  
3313 8089 3306 8090 3310 8094 3303 8108  
 
 
 
LM  
 
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Well thats not good..

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Quoting 534. AllStar17:



I do recall that. Ivan was of course a memorable storm, though I'm sure many think of the first landfall and don't recall the fact that it swing back around and made another landfall. I'm not sure we'll ever see that again.


If the 06Z GFS is to be believed we may well see it for the Canadian Maritime provinces the week AFTER next with
our new long lived friend Hermine.
Base Radial Velocity.

Hermine left an impact here in Central Florida. I experienced overnight between 12-3 I would say off and on wind gusts around 50-60 mph rain was torrential got a few inches, two power outages over night each time came on within minutes. Seen a large tree down a block away other then that damage is minimal and I'm ok. Some friends I know in Citrus County not too far away had some river and street Flooding. Now Hermine wants to head up the coast and affect New Jersey where I have family as well. They are getting prepared keeping them informed. I'm just worried this may intensify more then expected with the above average waters there could be severe coastal and inland impacts with it sitting there for days, that's the worse part.
Quoting 553. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I wouldn't wade in those waters if I were him.
Quoting 552. ncstorm:

Well thats not good..

Latest HRRR run




Hmmmm. sooo, I guess I WON'T mow the grass today....
TALLAHASSEE — Tens of thousands of residents of northern Florida and southern Georgia could be without electricity for days after strong winds from Hurricane Hermine swept through overnight, downing trees and powerlines.
Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum said power outages are “pretty ubiquitous,” with about half the city and up to 100,000 residents left in the dark.
Many roads in the area were covered in debris, downed trees and power lines, making many of them impassable. Emergency officials urged residents to stay off the roads.
“We had a pretty stiff storm last night and it dropped about four to five inches of rain on us through the night,” said Leon County Sheriff Mike Wood. “We have lots and lots of trees down and lots of power outages."
One person was killed by a falling tree in Marion County, weather.com reported.
Georgia Power reports that more than 30,000 of its customers were without power shortly before dawn Friday as Hermine rolls across the southern section of the state. Georgia Power’s online outage map showed that many of the outages were in and around the cities of Valdosta and Brunswick.
On Cedar Key, on the Florida coast about halfway between Tallahassee and Tampa,, many parts of the island were underwater, according to the Cedar Key Police Department. State Road 41 was closed.
As the storm closed in, many residents shrugged off the threat and instead joined a hurricane party at a photo studio.
Pat Bonish, owner of Bonish Studio in downtown Cedar Key, said water was waist-deep in his business and was likely a total loss. As the storm approached on Thursday, and an evacuation order was issued, Bonish held a hurricane party there for local holdouts.
“It was like a river coming up and under,” he said Friday.

Mayor Heath Davis, who popped into the party Thursday, was traveling in a small boat on Friday was observing damage and flooding in the streets.

Martin Kemp, owner of 1842 Daily Grind, a coffee shop said they are offering free coffee, muffins and water. The business got two inches of water. Kemp said he felt “lucky.”
“How can I charge people when they’ve lost half their stuff?” he asked.
Farther north up the coastline, Wakulla County and much of the Big Bend area took a beating as the first hurricane to hit the states in over 10 years made landfall across the northern tier  packing 80 mph winds and gusts close to 100 mph.
Wakulla County Administrator Dustin Hinkel said one couple suffered minor injuries when they hit a tree that had fallen into the road, the Associated Press reported.
He also noted that a storm surge of 8 to 10 feet hit the county’s beaches, damaging docks and flooding coastal roads in the county located south of Tallahassee.
Wakulla County Undersheriff Trey Morrison estimated between 150 and 200 trees were felled by high winds throughout the night, bringing down dozens of power lines.
“If we're lucky it's going to take two days to get power throughout the county,” he said.
WCSO made several emergency rescues including pulling a mother and her three daughters from a Crawfordville home after a tree came crashing through the roof.
Several people along Mashes Sands and Ochlocoknee Bay were pulled from flood waters, Morrison said, but there were no injuries.
“It’s kind of mind-boggling,” he said. “The scary part is we dodged a bullet. It could have been so much worse.”
In Pasco County, just north of Tampa,, fire rescue and sheriff’s deputies used high-water vehicles to rescue people from rising water and take them to a nearby shelter. At least 18 people were forced from their homes in Green Key and Hudson Beach by flooding.
Burlew and Etters report for the Tallahassee Democrat; Stanglin reported fromMcLean, Va. Contributing: Chris Bonanno, Florida Today
Quoting 525. SCwannabee:

Minimal impact thus far in Charleston. Heavy rain has been much further inland. Will have to see what kind wind impacts we have when the storm skirts west of us this afternoon.
Quoting 525. SCwannabee:

Minimal impact thus far in Charleston. Heavy rain has been much further inland. Will have to see what kind wind impacts we have when the storm skirts west of us this afternoon.
Winds really starting to pick up in Charleston, I can see that tomorrow will be a yard clean up day
Quoting 558. FunnelVortex:



I wouldn't wade in those waters if I were him.


I'm 95% sure that's a woman
so the real question is, What are your thoughts on 92L??

Quoting 494. CybrTeddy:

Well, I said that 99L wouldn't develop and I got hit by a hurricane. I half expected to find dead crow on my doorstep this morning.
Click image for loop

Quoting 558. FunnelVortex:



I wouldn't wade in those waters if I were him.
Lynne Garrett speaks to loved ones on the phone as she surveys damage outside of her home from the winds and storm surge associated with Hurricane Hermine on Friday in Tampa, Fla
Heavy wind driven rain hitting the windows here at the house south of Fort Myers.
Looks like the rain will be working its way all the way down the state.
1 death from a fallen tree it seems
Quoting 563. HurricaneDevo:

so the real question is, What are your thoughts on 92L??




Uh.. no comment? Lol. Wait and see, I suppose.
Quoting 565. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Lynne Garrett speaks to loved ones on the phone as she surveys damage outside of her home from the winds and storm surge associated with Hurricane Hermine on Friday in Tampa, Fla


I still wouldn't wade in those floodwaters.

You don't know what is swimming around in there.
Man, Hermine has a LONG tail. Thought we (in SWFL) were done with her when the main band pulled to the NE as she approached landfall last night. But the tail has sagged back south since that time Link

Can't really complain too much after seeing some of the damage so far and what the Tampa area has lived through the last couple of days. But it sure is ugly out.
Quoting 533. Luisport:

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 3m3 minutes ago
My goodness ... GFS 12z expands #Hermine into a monster late Sun into Labor Day.




Is there a chance that Hermine could enter the Atlantic off the coast of Ga? I am in Wilmington NC. We have had around 3 inches of rain, minimal wind as of 12 noon.
Quoting 547. lexslamman:


Even with a mid-strength tropical storm (50-60 mph sustained) that would be catastrophic coastal and areal flooding for Cape May and the Delaware Bay, and that's before we take into consideration that a few feet of surge may also be pushed onshore as she flirts with landfall.



It may be a unique situation. I don't recall any system that stayed in that area for days. Even a weak system will cause tremendous coastal flooding.
Quoting 567. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

1 death from a fallen tree it seems


Can you confirm? Can't seem to find a source saying this.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 539. Grothar:




The guy at WBZ for CBS has been saying for nearly 2 days that our problem child, may stall out just East the Jersey Shore till Tuesday. This plot is down right creepy.

Why the water off the Jersey shore is the warmest it's ever been
By DAN SKELDON, Press meteorologist Aug 11, 2016


Link
Photo by: Associated Press
A street is blocked from debris washed up from the tidal surge of Hurricane Hermine Friday, Sept. 2, 2016, in Cedar Key, Fla. Hermine was downgraded to a tropical storm after it made landfall. (AP Photo/John Raoux)



Quoting 574. FunnelVortex:



Can you confirm? Can't seem to find a source saying this.
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 2h2 hours ago
1 dead after Hermine causes 'severe' coastal damage, thousands without power: http://wxch.nl/2cl2ac0
The Naval Fleet @ Norfolk may depart.



Quoting 550. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Keeper, just one line with a locality name would make me happy ...
edit: Thanks for the article.
Quoting 502. CBJeff:



After Sandy, is it protocol to call hurricane-force, non-tropical systems "Super Storm"?


Super Storms are a dynamic combination of two different extremes of low pressure systems - Cold core system colliding and providing energy to a warm core tropical system.

It creates a storm that can strengthen under almost any circumstances. Warm water, cold water, shear, high land interaction. Storms combining in this rare manor become enormous in size as well. Thats why we call them SUper Storms.
Quoting 579. Patrap:

The Naval Fleet @ Norfolk may depart.




more than likely time to sortie is 24 hrs from now if not they will have to ride it out in port
Quoting 491. HighOnHurricanes:

So, we went from 99L to TD9 to Hermine - who made official landfall just after midnight eastern time, which meant it was in September, the 9th month. And she had a very distinct shape on radar at landfall:



Models current suggest that she could linger of the NE coast of the US, and possibly turn back towards the US. Probably on 9/9. FWIW, the ninth state of the union was New Hampshire,

You're on a good lead there, look at my user name... 2+0+1+6 = ?
Quoting 580. EmsiNasklug:



Keeper, just one line with a locality name would make me happy ...
sorry here is caption for the picture

member of Cedar Key Fire Rescue checks on damage from Hurricane Hermine to a building on the waterfront early Friday in Cedar Key, Fla.
I can't trust my eyes.

When I look at the various loops it looks like Hermine is trying to get out to sea at (or even a bit south of) Charleston. But when I plot points and extrapolate, it still seems to be on the NHC track.
11 hrs ago

Cedar Key

The witch is on the move and feeling her groove.

Those feeders are over the gulf stream.

As far back as the 26th most models were showing more of an impact on northern Florida when most people had written it off. Some even earlier models showed the same. It think they performed extremely well. Including holding off on intensity as was expected..

The is from the 26th of August



Quoting 585. CBJeff:

I can't trust my eyes.

When I look at the various loops it looks like Hermine is trying to get out to sea at (or even a bit south of) Charleston. But when I plot points and extrapolate, it still seems to be on the NHC track.


I think the radar may be misleading you. On visible, it looks like it is headed toward MYB or further N for an exit. Center is falling apart and hard to track per radar. Maybe some decoupling of the layers as well.
Unless something changes, seems to be more shear than usual in the Atlantic basin for the peak day of hurricane season. La Nina is a dud?
Quoting 588. Grothar:

As far back as the 26th most models were showing more of an impact on northern Florida when most people had written it off. Some even earlier models showed the same. It think they performed extremely well. Including holding off on intensity as was expected..

The is from the 26th of August




TVCA pegged it too.
Caymans time too keep an eye out.

Quoting 588. Grothar:

As far back as the 26th most models were showing more of an impact on northern Florida when most people had written it off. Some even earlier models showed the same. It think they performed extremely well. Including holding off on intensity as was expected..

The is from the 26th of August






Pretty good, even if it went slightly farther west when it initially entered the gulf.



Chris Bonanno, FLORIDA TODAY
The first floor of the Tres Palmas Condominium complex was inundated with water overnight from Hurricane Hermine.

Cedar Key residents: Hermine sent water through the walls
 
WFUS52 KCAE 021658  
TORCAE  
SCC061-085-021730-  
/O.NEW.KCAE.TO.W.0005.160902T1658Z-160902T1730Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC  
1258 PM EDT FRI SEP 2 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN COLUMBIA HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA...  
 
* UNTIL 130 PM EDT  
 
* AT 1258 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MULBERRY...OR NEAR SUMTER...MOVING  
NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...TORNADO.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  
 
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT  
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.  
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE  
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.  
 
* THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF  
SOUTHWESTERN LEE AND NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE  
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: OSWEGO AND DALZELL.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST  
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...IN  
A MOBILE HOME...OR IN A VEHICLE...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL  
SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY HIDE THIS TORNADO. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE  
TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW!  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3401 8027 3394 8034 3404 8053 3417 8038  
TIME...MOT...LOC 1658Z 138DEG 11KT 3402 8034  
 
TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED  
HAIL...<.75IN  
 
 
 
CJR  
 
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The Nexlab SC Page

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Quoting 540. ncstorm:

Im glad I let my kids stayed home

A message from NEW HANOVER COUNTY SCHOOLS
Good afternoon parents,
The National Weather Service has adjusted the forecast and we are now expecting a greater rainfall. Due to this change, students in New Hanover County will be released from school one hour early: Elementary Schools at 1:30 pm, Middle and High Schools at 2:30 PM, and the Early colleges at 12:30 PM. Staff – Please consult with your Principal or Building Supervisor regarding your release.

Thank you


Yup knew it would happen. Should have done it last night
Quoting 558. FunnelVortex:



I wouldn't wade in those waters if I were him.


Believe that's a her. And sometimes you have no choice. Not to mention the more esoteric point that if you were him (her) you would BE her and therefore would do exactly what she's doing.
602. TX2FL
Quoting 577. Patrap:

Photo by: Associated Press
A street is blocked from debris washed up from the tidal surge of Hurricane Hermine Friday, Sept. 2, 2016, in Cedar Key, Fla. Hermine was downgraded to a tropical storm after it made landfall. (AP Photo/John Raoux)






I stayed at that Inn 8 years ago, this photo has been all over the news. Broke my heart to see this. Hoping they pull through and fix/repair OK. My Cedar Key weekend has been one of my favorite weekend getaways ever.
The CMC has 92L ending up on same destination on the coastline as Hermine. Oh, it is the CMC.
Is 92L going to be another storm that tangles itself with the Yucatan or Hispaniola? These two pieces of land have been "hurricane grabbers " in recent years. Makes for a difficult and frustrating forecast
605. vis0

Quoting 523. NutZilla:

2016 Hurricane Season GOES East Satellite Animation - May thru August 2016

This is an animation using imagery derived from the GOES East satellite. The area in this imagery is called the Hurricane Sector. The animation contains EXACTLY 4,798 individual images.

Features include:
Exact moments when all named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes formed.
Precise data on peak intensity of all storms.
Thumbnail imagery of all storms at their peak intensity at each stage of their formation.
Tracks of each storm.
SPECIAL daily count up from 10/24/2005 - the date Hurricane Wilma made landfall in Florida (the last time a major hurricane hit the USA.) As of 08/31/2016...3963 days have passed. Day 4000 will fall on 10/06/2016.


2016TS SAT animation:: very good graphics, clean interface information, sharp text