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Major steering current shift; Typhoon Man-Yi wallops Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on July 13, 2007

There are no threat areas in the tropical Atlantic to discuss, and none of the computer models are forecasting tropical storm formation over the coming week. However, there is there a major development to report--it appears likely that a major shift in the weather pattern will occur in late July across the Northern Hemisphere. If the GFS model is correct, the trough of low pressure that has been consistently in place over the Eastern U.S. will finally move off, to be replaced by a ridge of high pressure (Figure 1). This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal risk. The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July. Such a shift would bring the western U.S. some relief from the current heat wave, and bring high heat and air pollution problems to the Midwest and East Coast. How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season. I'll have an updated forecast on this pattern shift Monday, when I issue my bi-weekly hurricane outlook.



Figure 1. Observed 500 mb heights at 00 GMT today (top), and forecast height in two weeks' time from the GFS model(bottom). The white lines in these plots show how close to the surface a pressure of 500 millibars (mb) is found. When there is low pressure aloft, due to a trough of low pressure, the height at which a pressure of 500 millibars is found moves closer to the surface, and one sees a "U" shaped area of 500 mb height lines. We can see a trough over the Eastern U.S. in the top plot. When a ridge of high pressure occurs aloft, the height at which a pressure of 500 millibars is found moves higher up in the atmosphere, away from the surface, and one sees an upside-down "U" shape to the height lines. A ridge of high pressure is apparent over the Eastern U.S. in the bottom plot. This ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. will be accompanied by an extension of the Bermuda High to the west over the the U.S., which will act to block recurvature of hurricanes.

Typhoon Man-Yi
In the Pacific, Typhoon Man-Yi battered Japan's Okinawa Island this morning, striking as a super typhoon with 155 mph winds. Naha, Okinawa recorded sustained winds of 76 mph with gusts to 105 mph (Figure 1), and a pressure of 939 mb. This was very close the the minimum pressure estimated by satellite, 937 mb. Media reports indicate substantial damage occurred on Okinawa, and over 100,000 people lost power. Twelve crew members of a Chinese ship were missing after the vessel sank some 600 km northwest of Guam in strong winds and high seas. Man-Yi is expected to make landfall on the Japanese island of Kyushu Saturday. However, the storm should weaken to a Category 1 storm by landfall, as wind shear from an approaching trough of low pressure has already reached 20 knots on the west side of the storm, and is expected to increase further. Some links for those following the storm:

Japanese radar. Click on an area of interest to zoom in.

Latest satellite images of Typhoon Man-Yi, courtesy of NOAA.

Guam sector satellite images.

Awesome image of Man-Yi from NASA's Aqua satellite.

Current conditions in Japan:
Kagoshima, southern Japan
Miyazaki, southern Japan
Tanegashima, southern Japan


Figure 2. Wind trace from Okinawa airport during Typhoon Man-Yi. Note the shift in wind direction as the eye passed over, and sharp drop in wind speed at this time.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The wave coming off africa is not to
far south. If it was much further north,
it would probably recurve as soon as it
picks up any strength.
Posted By: randommichael at 3:52 PM EDT on July 13, 2007.

How did Okinawa only have a gust of 105 when there was a Cat 5 right on top of it...that doesn't make sense.


It can be entirely possible if the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant (the way it usually is in the northern hemisphere) and the location measuring the winds is in the SW quadrant (usually the weakest part of the storm in the northern hemisphere). A lot would also depend on how far from the centre the cat-5 winds extended.


That being said, I'm wondering if Man-yi was in fact still at the Cat. 5 strength when it passed Okinawa.
Another lurker here...thanks to all for your discussions, they are very enlightening and helpful. For all you forecasters/opinionators...how strong are the odds of a hurricane coming in and hitting the Galveston/Houston area this year? Just out of curiousity!
how strong are the odds of a hurricane coming in and hitting the Galveston/Houston area this year? Just out of curiousity!

Thats impossible to forecast this far out. Point is always be prepared.
seems that the CATL wave is gaining some convection.
there maybe some spin associated with the wave.
I'm out for the afternoon, but, I would advise all of our people in Florida, and Carribean, (if you have not done so) to get your basic regular "season" supplies/plans in place over this coming week/weekend while it is still quiet....Stock up for the season (including any needed plywood) so you can avoid the "panic" lines and the like which may become a likely occurance going into the next four-five weeks...Everyone have a great weekend....
this one might blossom some time tonight . it is looking better now .
509. IKE
Posted By: Drakoen at 4:55 PM CDT on July 13, 2007.
there maybe some spin associated with the wave.


The one near 50?
Did Okinawa lose power before
the worst of the storm hit??
Posted By: IKE at 9:56 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 4:55 PM CDT on July 13, 2007.
there maybe some spin associated with the wave.


The one near 50?


Yes.
drak are u checking the qickstats yet . thanks
The Atlantic is no longer quiet....StormKat nailed it.
LOL..thats the best yet in 3 hours..Stormkat LMAO
The Atlantic is no longer quiet....StormKat nailed it.

avccording to twc its very quiet heheh
Ill get some Lego's ..everyone can build a weekend strom..LOL
517. IKE
StormKat...who is fishing in Alaska just waiting to come back in a week and really ignite this blog. This should be an exciting 3 months coming up on here! LOL!
Stormkat is up in AK fishing he said by July 20th it would be active, lol
Posted By: stormybil at 9:59 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

drak are u checking the qickstats yet . thanks


No. I don't think its updated yet.Just look a the vis shots.
He wont last a day...If one relies on that kinda er, love. Best get a divorce lawyer.
521. IKE
I built my weekend storm right over my house. Already 2 thunderstorms today. 70% chance of rain tomorrow. 60% on Sunday.

What drought?
Stormkat is up in AK fishing he said by July 20th it would be active, lol

A mouse stoned in Bangkok could have said that. LOL
523. 0741
i take care of stormkat if he/she start wisecasting in here it not allow
True Patrap, lol
Maybe StornKat will make a prediction based on the kinds of fish he catches...LOL.
I agree with W.wannabe. I REALLY hope I'm
wrong, but I've had a sinking feeling
in my stomach about this coming season
since March. I had the same gut feeling
in 04.
Posted By: bam412 at 9:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I'm a bit skeptical when it comes to a report of 10.37" of rain in just one hour on Okinawa.
I also think that the winds may have been higher than reported. Perhaps a damage asessment team can clear that up.
Posted By: Dakster at 9:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.




Apperntly you dont understand much about physics or how troical cylones function, they suck up incredible amounts of moisture and energy from the warm tropical waters and release it in the atmosphere.


Study the hurricane engine in detail and it will make clear since why it produced 10 inches in one hour, in fact, hurricane hunters have reported rain rates frequently in eye walls at such levels. In strong hurricanes, its been known to be heavier for brief times greater then 15 inches per hour.


The type of thunderstorms that exsist in a hurricane becomed overloaded with moisture and energy at levels that occurr nowhere else on earth. This allows extremely intense convection to form, causing storms that break the stratosphere. They are known as "hot towers" reaching as high as 80,000 ft or taller. This effect is found at or near the core of a hurricane, a phenomenon unique to hurricanes.





Ivan, you also? I have a feeling we may see a repeat of 04 with a little bit of 05 mixed in.
I know he means well..hes a good dude. But the overbearing CAPS and condescending tone..isnt the way to reach the masses. Its insane at best. My take..only.
530. IKE
I'm shocked he doesn't have his laptop and give us updates thru his blog about his thoughts on the tropics and what all he's been catching in the great state of Alaska.
531. ryang
LOL Eagles...
that wave off Africa is still below 10 degrees.
I can see this when StormKat comes back:

hello all the tropics are quiet but chantal will form in the following week...then it will be quiet for 2 more weeks....i can tell this because i caught some bass and a trout...StormKat
535. 0741
Drakoen that sat pic we cannot see wave that good
536. ryang
QuickSCAT out yet?
537. 0741
StormKat wont do that i wont allow StormKat wisecast in here
0741 We are loosing the light of the day.
539. ryang
Posted By: 0741 at 6:17 PM AST on July 13, 2007.

Drakoen that sat pic we cannot see wave that good

0741... It's visable...LOL
Ivan & Plywood, I'll Third That Sinking '04 Feeling.
Good Advice WxmanWannabe, Check Those Supplies Now.
I didn't have this feeling in 05, but I did in 04. I don't know what to expect this year but my gut feeling is not good at all. I doubt seriously we'll have the numbers of 05 but see a whammy coming for someone. Gut feelings aside, there was no upwelling in the western Atlantic last year so if something comes our way it will probably be worse than 04.
ryang the QuickSat hasn't reached that area yet.
so the quikscat goes all the way around the world?
Posted By: HurricaneGeek at 10:24 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

so the quikscat goes all the way around the world?


Yes.
Every 90 minutes...
Orbital Mechanics Tutorial..
test Monday..
Link
547. 0741
thanks for not wisecasting we donot need that in here only real weathher and tropical talk with data you all get from world wild web
okay
this is interesting. There is a low near South America. I don't exactly know when this picture was made but it might be the low that ryang was talkign about that has moved to the north. Hard to tell.
Why don't you all take the weekend off? Instead of looking at nothing, waiting anxiously for the next set of model runs, or speeding up loops and holding a foot in the air with your nosed pressed against the screen until you maybe see a spin. Go ahead and help mom and dad get the home hurricane prepared. Rent "One Flew Over The Cuckoo's Nest". It's a good movie and has some similarities to this board. Or go outside and play with friends. Clean your room. I promise you, you won't miss anything, and there will be real tropical cyclone stuff to talk about at some point in the season.
CosmicEvents its a blog we can talk about anything we want and do anything we want within reason. Thats why i am here. I like this blog and i don't see why i can't discuss the tropics with other bloggers.
and what is he doing here anyway mama needs you cosmic
553. 0741
if you notice area coming out central america? it look like moving nw
Posted By: CosmicEvents at 6:32 PM EDT on July 13, 2007.

... waiting anxiously... holding a foot in the air with your nosed pressed against the screen until you maybe see a spin.


LOL Cosmic, Great Imagery!
A TOE SENSOR!!! ROTFL
Posted By: Patrap at 3:03 PM CDT on July 13, 2007.
Lets see what we can see. Look below the Yucatan in the SW CArb...theres some convection to drag on about.
And its definately the closet.
So ..who has an op on this ..

Link
I would not hold my breath for the Quikscat pass to disclose a surface low with the wave near 50 W. At best there may be a wind shift evident which would be consistent with a high amplitude wave.
Man-Yi's looking more organised as a Cat. 2 than it was as a Cat. 4 at times.
Ivansvrivr & plywoodstatenative im in aggreance with you guys last time i had this gut feelings was before katrina and the other before wilma, and my feeling is here in Miami but i truly hope i am wrong
I'm out for the afternoon, but, I would advise all of our people in Florida, and Carribean, (if you have not done so) to get your basic regular "season" supplies/plans in place over this coming week/weekend while it is still quiet....Stock up for the season (including any needed plywood) so you can avoid the "panic" lines and the like which may become a likely occurance going into the next four-five weeks...Everyone have a great weekend....


I find the "panic" lines comical. I always go out to watch other people panic. It gets me in the "hurricane mood"
Cosmic: That is a great movie and comparison you made. Had to chuckle at that one.
Afternoon all ☺

Hey Fran :~)
good evening StormJunkie..
I'm not looking to make enemies and I don't mean to insult anyone here. But I am serious about taking a break. There are some productive things that you can do. Helping mom and dad get the home prepared is a big one. It's also good for your own mental health. Save the energy and enthusiasm for when it's needed.
Good to see ya Drak, I see the CMC is back on the CATL..

lmao CE ~)
Posted By: bam412 at 9:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I'm a bit skeptical when it comes to a report of 10.37" of rain in just one hour on Okinawa.
I also think that the winds may have been higher than reported. Perhaps a damage asessment team can clear that up.


Posted By Jedkins at 10:09 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Apperntly you dont understand much about physics or how troical cylones function, they suck up incredible amounts of moisture and energy from the warm tropical waters and release it in the atmosphere.


Study the hurricane engine in detail and it will make clear since why it produced 10 inches in one hour, in fact, hurricane hunters have reported rain rates frequently in eye walls at such levels. In strong hurricanes, its been known to be heavier for brief times greater then 15 inches per hour.


The type of thunderstorms that exsist in a hurricane becomed overloaded with moisture and energy at levels that occurr nowhere else on earth. This allows extremely intense convection to form, causing storms that break the stratosphere. They are known as "hot towers" reaching as high as 80,000 ft or taller. This effect is found at or near the core of a hurricane, a phenomenon unique to hurricanes.

Posted by bam412:

actually I have a degree in physics and am a PhD student in atmospheric sciences at UCLA specializing in hurricane dynamics.
automated obs always make me skeptical in extreme situations like this.

Actually updrafts tend to me rather weak in hurricanes (around 5 m/s tops) so I doubt there would be much penetration into the stratosphere. You're prob thinking about mid latitude severe thunderstorms.
Posted By: StormJunkie at 10:51 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Good to see ya Drak, I see the CMC is back on the CATL..

lmao CE ~)


Yea it is. It has it stronger than the previous 12z run lol.
Half of these ppl r over 18 dude xD
Cosmic

I am going to print off your post and hand it to my kids. Maybe you will have better luck getting them in motion than I have LOL

Seriously though, I do agree that sitting here for hrs every day posting can be hazardous to ones physical ( and probably mental ) health. Thats why I deliberately get up and walk away from the computer sometimes for hrs at a time. If I am at work then not posting comes easy. When you work by the hour time spent posting can become very expensive !!

Once the season does get rolling in earnest there will be lots to post about.
strong wave that this came off and i think there may be a 1011mb low with it has well




Posted By: BahaHurican at 9:48 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Posted By: randommichael at 3:52 PM EDT on July 13, 2007.

How did Okinawa only have a gust of 105 when there was a Cat 5 right on top of it...that doesn't make sense.

It can be entirely possible if the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant (the way it usually is in the northern hemisphere) and the location measuring the winds is in the SW quadrant (usually the weakest part of the storm in the northern hemisphere). A lot would also depend on how far from the centre the cat-5 winds extended.


That being said, I'm wondering if Man-yi was in fact still at the Cat. 5 strength when it passed Okinawa.



it never passed right over the island, it officially passed 20 miles to the west of the island.


Very similar to wimla, Man-yi had a large expanse of TS and hurricane force winds, but only a very small core of winds at category 3 or better.


Not only that, wind instrements have been known to have isssues during hurricanes and cannot always be trusted as offical speeds. Sometimes they are accurate, but most commonmly as winds get very strong in a more powerfull cyclone wind OBS can become distorted.
yea Kman lol. Most people here are over 18... There aren't any kids here.


Because i got bored i decided to layout what the CMC does in terms of cyclongenesis. I don't trust that model and i don't believe its forecast. I need model agreement.


(Waves Heartily to SJ>>>>>)
This Was My First Peek Into WU Today...
Can Always Count on You'All For The Updates,
& Some Good-Natured Giggles.
Thanks Everyone. Have A Great Weekend.
FRAN

Oh! My Actual Weather Post:
Conditions in Vero Beach, FL at 7:00 EST
HOT 88 w/ Heat Index at 96
Sticky 72% Humidty
Wind 7mph
Maybe A Passing Rain Cloud Later
Hello everyone. I hope you have a nice weekend! My local MET, Paul Delegato is talking now about changes in the weather pattern coming soon. He said that this could be a change coming in the tropics! I believe that he, and DR. Masters are on the same page!

Please be prepared!! ALSO, if you know of anyone in your area that needs help preparing, give them a hand. A single mom working, yet struggling, a senior citizen, or anyone that may need help! I know you all have your own problems, yet take a few minutes and help others!! THANKS!!
ok cosmic - that made me actually LAUGH. Thanks for the chuckle tonight. I am going to throw my kids outside in the heat and tell them to pick up sticks.

Still seems to be the only model hinting at it right now. Will be waiting to see if any others jump on board. Just don't trust the CMC when it is a lone duck, even though it has done well with a few early systems.
Hey Drak

Is that the reverse cone of death ? LOL
Taz here is an update view of the wave
i call the new wave off africa to be a invest first before the other waves anyone else ?
Well here is your QuikSCAT pass
Good to see you mel, and ml :~)

lol mel ☺
Great idea Mermaid - I volunteer for senior citizen's meals on wheels and i KNOW those folks are pretty jammed in a hurricane situation. Folks can barely make it to the door to pick up their meals let alone get prepared...thanks for putting it into perspective.
LOL Kman no. that just shows where the moisture/system is headed. The two seperate line actually two different areas of moisture. The first circle above Haiti. is where some convergence happens and then the wave develops.
Drakoen i say 97L is likey with that wave
Those QS passes are old ( from this morning )
Hey SJ - haven't seen you for a while. Great to see you. (As i watch my kids outside sweating to death...and i enjoy a nice glass of chardonney...)
rainman look at that last picture that you posted and enlarge it. It looks like there might be a low there.
Anyone heard from StormW today? Didn't get an update and I know he was feeling pretty awful yesterday...
I call the new wave off africa to be a invest first before the other waves anyone else ?

No, Waves coming off of arfica always look good it really when they get out into the open when you see... This wave will be a dud in south america in 4 days.
I never posted an image, Rainman did and they are from this morning's ascending pass
Posted By: kmanislander at 11:05 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I never posted an image


Sry i was refering to rainman. Too much confusion lol.
22:22/32 UTC.. check your clock here
I am not seeing it Drako... All I see is some skewed rain driven wind readings.
Yes I can make that out Drak.. images are less than an hour old
Check the purple numbers at the bottom of the image on the right side. That is what determines the time of the pass, not what is on the clock or on the top of the image page
Thanks MEL!!
ah yea Kman is right lol. we have to wait for the descending pass.
Posted By: randommichael at 11:07 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

When is the next CMC?


1-3am EDT
You got it Drak !
her is what the nhc said about it

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS JUST E OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SSMI DERIVED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY BROAD
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A HINT OF AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N22W.
UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DISPLAYED A
CLEAR WAVE SIGNAL WITH THE PASSAGE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE 00Z. IN
ADDITION...SYNOPTIC SFC OBS IN THE REGION INDICATE 24-H PRES
FALLS NEAR 2 MB
. DESPITE THE LARGE STRUCTURE AND WELL-DEFINED
SIGNAL
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL
NEAR THE AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST OF IT ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ.


this wave will not go poof like the past few this one needs to be watch
Back in a while
Your right, I was looking at the data buffer time.. thanks for the info.
604. ryang
Evening All.

Let's see what 97L does tonight...I mean the CATL wave...LOL
97L LMAO. This will will not be 97L unless it does something crazy.
606. ryang
Taz if the circulation is that north...SAL will kill it...
I Use this program and I just have it running in the back round the whole time. Does not slow down the CPU a bit. I have UTC as well as all of the US times. I just shrink it down and put it next to the time in the bottom. Just click the show time in title button and you have every time zone you want in the world.

Time Zone Clock
608. ryang
Posted By: Drakoen at 7:13 PM AST on July 13, 2007.

97L LMAO. This will will not be 97L unless it does something crazy.

LOL... Let's see what it does tonight...
Posted By: bam412 at 10:52 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.


Posted By: bam412 at 9:20 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

I'm a bit skeptical when it comes to a report of 10.37" of rain in just one hour on Okinawa.
I also think that the winds may have been higher than reported. Perhaps a damage asessment team can clear that up.
Posted By: Dakster at 9:23 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.




Apperntly you dont understand much about physics or how troical cylones function, they suck up incredible amounts of moisture and energy from the warm tropical waters and release it in the atmosphere.


Study the hurricane engine in detail and it will make clear since why it produced 10 inches in one hour, in fact, hurricane hunters have reported rain rates frequently in eye walls at such levels. In strong hurricanes, its been known to be heavier for brief times greater then 15 inches per hour.


The type of thunderstorms that exsist in a hurricane becomed overloaded with moisture and energy at levels that occurr nowhere else on earth. This allows extremely intense convection to form, causing storms that break the stratosphere. They are known as "hot towers" reaching as high as 80,000 ft or taller. This effect is found at or near the core of a hurricane, a phenomenon unique to hurricanes.


actually I have a degree in physics and am a PhD student in atmospheric sciences at UCLA specializing in hurricane dynamics.
automated obs always make me skeptical in extreme situations like this.

Actually updrafts tend to me rather weak in hurricanes (around 5 m/s tops) so I doubt there would be much penetration into the stratosphere. You're prob thinking about mid latitude severe thunderstorms.



I wont argue much further, maybe your telling the truth, maybe you aren't. Its a blog, anybody could say they have a degree in anything here. Now its all possible you aren't lying to me, but I really don't know that. And there have been tons of liers here so its easy for me to get jumpy here.


But as far as the "hot towers" deal goes, I learned that straight from the experts.

Also, they do produce massive amounts of moisture and energy and realease it, which makes 10 inches in one hour quite reasonable, plus historical records back this up as well.

Also hurricane hurters fequently encounter such intense rain,as I stated earlier, quite often.






As far as the updraft deal goes, now that I recall it, you're right, because sub tropical ridges form over Tropical cyclones which means relatively warm air aloft. Plus convection forms differently in hurricanes and in the tropics then in mid lattude zones.


610. ryang
By the way, I still see a spin...LOL
I do the same UTC Clock thing with one from here, neat lat/lon converter there too
612. 0741
kmanislander you got big storm to your south let see if their move toward nw or west into south america
Kman and mel....let me know if you have any success with the kids. I can use any help I can get with my own. lol
.
.
To all...what I said applies to all, including me. It's not an age thing. It doesn't matter if you're 15 or 50, there's other things to do. Other people to help, as Mermaidlaw eloquently suggested. It doesn't mean things here need to cease and desist.
It's still a tad early for Cape Verde action. Cooler water eats them up usually until around the beginning of Aug. This one seems like its hanging on though.
Lets see what the NHC says about the waves.
Does anyone know if the NWS or the TCHP is saying something about either of these waves?
: Drakoen if you have not seen my post yet the nhc did say say some in about the wave


her is what the nhc said about it

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 12Z ANALYSIS JUST E OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 21W/22W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SSMI DERIVED TPW PRODUCT SHOWS A VERY BROAD
AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING WITH A HINT OF AN ELONGATED
CIRCULATION NEAR 16N22W.
UPPER AIR DATA FROM DAKAR DISPLAYED A
CLEAR WAVE SIGNAL WITH THE PASSAGE OCCURRING JUST BEFORE 00Z. IN
ADDITION...SYNOPTIC SFC OBS IN THE REGION INDICATE 24-H PRES
FALLS NEAR 2 MB
. DESPITE THE LARGE STRUCTURE AND WELL-DEFINED
SIGNAL
IN THE AFOREMENTIONED DATA...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL
NEAR THE AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST OF IT ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ.

Taz that was posted this morning...
I already saw that.
620. 0741
their no 8pm posting yet
Good evening. It was a great Friday 13 th.

Whats the story with the wave east and south of the Carib. Isles. ? It has stalled ?? Does it move west tomorow ??
622. RL3AO
97E is up in the EPac with a TCFA and the NHC is expecting a TD tonight or tomorrow.
Posted By: weathersp at 4:27 PM PDT on July 13, 2007.

Taz that was posted this morning...


No it was not they add that at the 2:05pm update
Posted By: pottery2 at 11:30 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.

Good evening. It was a great Friday 13 th.

Whats the story with the wave east and south of the Carib. Isles. ? It has stalled ?? Does it move west tomorow ??


Suppose to move to the west maybe WNW.
626. 0741
it look like one east of islands moving into south america
and that TD 5E wont last long be for it move in to colder waters
If the newest wave is going to do something,
it won't do it this early. I figure 1 or 2
days past the carary islands before it gets going (if at all). If we start getting
Cape Verdi action this soon, it will be a
looooong season!
629. ryang
Evening Pottery...
Drak, whats the water temps out near the verdes?
631. ryang
The wave off Africa will soon go poof...
if the catl blossoms tonight like they usally do we will have something to talk about tomorow night shift report to blogs at 12 am stay tuned
633. ryang
Plywood, 80-81F.
634. 0741
shift report to blogs at 12 am stay tuned
??????????
thats what you all think
Posted By: Patrap at 10:43 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.
Posted By: Patrap at 3:03 PM CDT on July 13, 2007.
Lets see what we can see. Look below the Yucatan in the SW CArb...theres some convection to drag on about.

It doesn't look like there is much lower level convergence there (although the graphic I saw shows the region having some 850mb vorticity). Since there is good upper level divergence, where does the air come from? Mid level convergence? Still, without LLC, I think you've got bupkis, for now. Maybe it will go when it hits the EPAC.

Hard to tell from the graphics, but it looks to me like the GFS is tending more toward the NAO going positive than the ensemble mean. Is this the forecasted pattern shift Dr. Masters mentioned?
okay anyone have an sst map?
Whats the chance that we may have a shift to a late neutral La Nina pattern. like we had late el nino come in last year
639. RL3AO
Man-yi could have gotten a lot stronger but its size limited strengthening for a few days.
640. ryang
sst
GOES WV Loop of Tropical Basin

Link
Most often anything T.D or stronger
before reaching the Cape Verde islands
turns north really quick. If it is
going to be something for the W.Atlantic
or Carribean, it would probably stay
weak for a few days, at least. I can't remember anything named or numbered
before the Cape Verdes making it this far.
Does anyone else?
Man-yi could have gotten a lot stronger but its size limited strengthening for a few days.

Let's be thankful it only got to 155 mph. Anything like 180 or 185 would've destroyed Okinawa.
I can't remember anything named or numbered
before the Cape Verdes making it this far.
Does anyone else?


Wasn't Ivan one of them?
Posted By: Tazmanian at 11:11 PM GMT on July 13, 2007.
..........................................
................................................

this wave will not go poof like the past few this one needs to be watch


What I said two days ago they are hanging together better now. LOL and whoever said 97L, I thought it would be when I got home tonight!!

And randommichael, you are right, we will all be idiots or genius's in the next week or so.

Back to quietly napping.
Still fairly disorganized but the system has the upper air flow as well as moisture on its side.
Mid upper level water vapour image of the atlantic


Link
...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGES OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THEREFORE THE CURRENT
POSITION FOLLOWS CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN
85-88W...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W S OF 17N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. LITTLE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON
SATELLITE IMAGES OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...THEREFORE THE CURRENT
POSITION FOLLOWS CONTINUITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA
ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN
85-88W...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM
11N-17N BETWEEN 82W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 6N30W 6N40W 10N50W 6N60W.
OTHER THAN CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 25W-40W...AND FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N91W
PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE
WINDS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER N FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO ALONG 30N81W 28N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 60
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FURTHER NORTH... A STATIONARY FRONT IS
INLAND OVER S GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ALONG 32N81W
31N85W 32N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 80W-88W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N100W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. EXPECT THE SURFACE HIGH TO REMAIN
STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF STATES...FLORIDA...
AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 88W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE INFLUENCING THE WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. SEE ABOVE. TRADEWINDS ARE ALSO THE STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST OF N COLOMBIA AT 25-30 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA BETWEEN 76W-84W.
SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO HISPANIOLA ...AS NOTED
ON THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N82W. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N61W.
EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 76W-78W. A DOMINATE
1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N49W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE ATLANTIC. A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 70W. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N50W. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 24N34W.
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 5N-30N E OF 40W.

$$
FORMOSA
650. ryang
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

651. ryang
LOL... Three of the same thing post, on the same time.
LOL triple posts. The NHC doesn't really say much...
If I remember correctly, Ivan wasnt
classified until after the Cape Verdes.
Ivan was so far south, the experts really
weren't expecting it do develop at all.
I'm almost positive, Ivan broke some kind
of record for being so far south,and so
strong. Below 8 degrees I think

I checked the 04 archive. Ivan formed about 28w
150-200mi ssw of C.V.
the system needs to have more clouds to consolidate nesr an apparent centre
655. 0741
ok the wave near south america going over land one less of wave to watch
Might be something just west of 10N 50W.
657. 0741
TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 23N42W 14N48W 3N51W MOVING W 15-20
KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED INVERTED V-SHAPE LOW
CLOUD SIGNATURE. CONVECTION IS FAIRLY MINIMAL WITH ONLY A SMALL
PATCH OF ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 48W-55W.

658. 0741
TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG
22W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A VERY BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THE
AXIS ITSELF WITH MOST CONVECTION ALIGNED LINEARLY ALONG THE
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-25W.
I'm almost positive, Ivan broke some kind
of record for being so far south,and so
strong. Below 8 degrees I think


Several records in fact:

Records

Ivan set several new records for intensity at low latitudes.

When Ivan first became a Category 3 hurricane on September 5 (1800 UTC), it was centered near 10.2 degrees north; this is the most southerly location on record for a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin. Just six hours later, Ivan also became the most southerly Category 4 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin when it reached that intensity while located at 10.6 degrees north. Finally, Ivan managed to become the most southerly Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin; it achieved this at midnight (UTC) on September 9 while centered at 13.7 degrees north.

Ivan had a total ACE of 70.6, second only to the San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899.

Ivan had the world record of 33 (32 consecutive) 6 hourly reports at or above category 4 strength. This record was later broken two years later by Pacific Hurricane/Typhoon Ioke, which had 36 (33 consecutive) 6 hourly reports at category 4 strength.

On September 16th 2004 Hurricane Ivan created the largest "wave" of water ever recorded. Scientists from the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Centre, Mississippi, have had to employ a computer model to predict that, while they were not looking, the height of the storm the wave reached 131 ft, equivalent to the height of a 15 story building. By comparison, the tsunami wave that swept across the Indian Ocean in December 2004 stood about 30 ft high as it hit shorelines, although in some parts of Indonesia it was reported to have reached 65 ft.
anyways i'm of for now.
Me too. I'm Off
Hey guys...

Back for a sec... Anything worth watching?
Back for a sec... Anything worth watching?

Couple good movies out. Also. Yankees V. Devil Rays.
LOL Bob:-)...

Guess I got my answer!
Drakoen
that Quickscat lookd quite interesting. pressures are about 1012mb
Ok, well I literally meant back for a sec:-)

Time to grab the ice cream, couch and put a movie in:-)

Not much to do on here until 00z CMC, which I will see tomorrow morning...

Have a good night.
As bad as Ivan was, It had weakened some
right before landfall. So did Katrina,
Rita, Dennis, Frances, Jeanne etc. Since
there was no upwelling in the W.Atlantic
Basin, I'm afraid things will be different. With
no upwlelling, the layer of warm water
will be deeper. As if the entire Gulf Stream,
Carribean and Gulf will be one big "loop current".
Scary.
Now you're talkin Nash!!..LOL Have a good night. See ya later!
20-30 knots wind shear has begun to tear away the cloud tope off the system


Link
Hey guys!!!! I haven't been on in a few days. It looks like we are getting to get a little active. Is anyone putting out any model runs yet?????
LOL wind shear is only 5-10kts.
the CMC is forecasting a strong TS or Hurricane in South Florida. It is the only model doing that, therefore that run cannot be trusted. We will have to see what the 0z runs do.
Okay. This may sound stupid but I am not a meterologist but I am learning about these models and I am not sure what a 0z run is?? Can you explain it to me and how I can look at it??
What is supposed to trigger this supposed t.s over S. Florida?
675. RL3AO
That is the time of the run. 0z = 0000 zulu = midnight zulu = midnight GMT = 8 pm eastern time.
the 0z run usually runs about 1-3 am EDT. the "0z" is just the time. You can look at it when it comes out at this page. IF 1-3 am EDT is late for you, you can always wait till you wake up. You can use the Sea level pressure or the 850 mb vorticy which is at the lower levels.
Link
Posted By: Ivansvrivr at 12:32 AM GMT on July 14, 2007.

What is supposed to trigger this supposed t.s over S. Florida?


That what i want to know it appears by looking at the 850mb loop, that the wave in the CATL will develop once it gets near Haiti. Agian the CMC is the only model doing this and there fore cannot be trusted. I would just expect an increase chance of rain If you live in South Florida.
679. RL3AO
0z = 8pm ET, but maybe it isn't put online until 1-3am ET.
hmm randommichael its 8:42 EST. and the run hasn't come out so i think i am right. The 0z run usually comes out late. between 1-3am.
If that wave were to develop,
Id expect it to wait til then.
However, my gut feeling says
not yet. My gut feelings are
usually right.
The time of the models is when they are initilized; it takes several hours to process all of the data (to model the entire earth's atmosphere requires some serious computing, it would probably take a year for your average home PC to run a model), which is why they usually come out about 6 hours after the initial time (which means that when you look at the times, you need to allow for that; the 6 hour forecast is really more like the current conditions, so +18 hours is really about +12 hours).
We had a good rainstorm today.
that wave off the coast of africa looks to be drawing in or contacting good convection with a wide low and mid level cirulation
heres the wave of Africa.
The CATV WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE BETTER. 11.5N 49W
Major steering current shift

Dr. Masters would never hype anything up. To hear him say something like that doesn't look good for those in Florida and the Gulf Coast. But one must remember what he also said:

...The GFS model has been inconsistent in its prediction of the timing of this shift, but has been persistent enough about it that I'm forecasting a 70% likelihood of this major pattern shift occurring by the end of July...How long such a shift might last is impossible to predict--it could last for a week, or could remain in place for the remainder of hurricane season...

Lets hope it last about a week. Even if it does last a week, you should always be prepared.
I've had a bad feeling about this
season since march. It's hard to
compare 2 years apart but this feeling
seems a little worse than 04. I'm
already prepared. I got a good dose
of Ivan in 04. Last year, no feeling,
every storm missed my location or
was a dud. I'm not taking any chances
this year. This time around my feeling seems more "dire".or "dark" or whatever.
almost positive we get one and I wouldn't
be surprised if it's worse than Ivan.
I hope that this is one of those
rare times my gut feeling is wrong.
Ivansurvivor in your list of storms that weakened before landfall, Jeanne should be omitted. It is the only one that did not. It actually got a little stronger right before landfall which was a reversal of Frances 3 weeks earlier.
Too early to judge that wave. Dry air won't be a factor, though.
Even now, before the pattern change is supposed to occur, the steering currents look bad:



Don't see how a recurvature could occur before the Caribbean or Gulf with a pattern like that, and it has been like that for at least several days now - the trough over the East Coast does not go THAT far south. Especially as most systems would develop in the tropics, below 20N, not mid-latitudes.
wave off africa should have disappear by now getting a bad feeling think this one may be what ya all wanted if convection holds on jsl this may be trouble it looks to be contacting or tighen up
The end of July is usually about the
time the steering pattern locks in.
By then, the winter jetstream has lifted
north. Upper level steering currents
die out, monsoon kicks in in sw U.S. The Bermuda high locks in for August, September
into the 1st half of October. That pattern
makes or brakes the season.
My mistake. You're right Jeanne went from
a 2 to a 3 right before landfall. My point,
though was deeper warm water is what supports
the BIG ONES. Each one that went over the
loop current(80+beyond 20 ft deep) exploded
over the L.C. then weakened slightly when the
deeper waters were cooler. With no upwelling
last year in the Gulf, Carribean, or Western
Atlantic, the whole Enchilada may be warm,
deeper than usual like the L.C
. This could be the recipe
for a disaster. Areas that don't expect
The bad ones might be in for surprise. I hope
and pray that i'm wrong.
"You" definitely refers to someone
besides me.
look like this wave got in a little strong and its holding up too this is some in to watch

Just looking at the weather pattern here in Grand Cayman, it reminds so much like the same weather pattern of 2004 . Ivan pounded us with winds 150-160 mph for over 30 hours.It is an experience I wouldn't have missed, but sure as hell one I wouldn't want to ever go through again.I have a "strange feeling" about this season, I believe all hell will break loose in the Atlantic basin soon.Can't say I'm happy reading about this predicted steering pattern.Makes me kinda jittery.
I usually don't pay much attention to
Cape Verde action till August. There are
simply too many things working against this
area this early. If it survives, I wouldn't
expect development until 1/2 way toward
leeward islands.
703. 0741
Ivansvrivr good point it too early for system to form near afica look what happen to 96l
704. 0741
not thing going form soon the wave near islands going die soon other one die as move into central atlantic
that wave that this came off has not yet die off like most do when they 1st come off this wave is holding up vary well so far wind shear is 20-25kt but it drops to 5kt and it stays 5 to 20kt all the way up to the gulf of mx
My Ivan experience was in Pensacola and I
feel the same way. I wouldn't trade it
for the world, wouldn't wish it anyone,
can't imagine seeing another one like it.
Can't shake this feeling about this year.
I'm noticing alot of folks share my "gut
feeling" and are describing it in the same
way. COINCIDENCE??? Ivan such a powerful
experience for everyone who was touched by it.
From 1 IVANSURVIVR 2 another!!!
0741, can you explain why those things are going to happen?
708. RL3AO
probably because storms usually don't form off of Africa in July.
709. 0741
look at sat pic you will see that wave near islands moving into south america and one out their near afica will not make trip because of shear and afica dust
Depending on how the High sets up could mean more storms threatening South Florida(2005) then Central Florida (2004)? Unless trofs come back and change the pattern?
There isn't too much dry air around it, but shear could be a problem this time.
Taz,
Good point!
0741 OK, I see those things. But I think the shear is dropping, and the wave near Africa is still south of the SAL. I think it may hold together if it stays on a track that keeps it south for a few days.

I am in Trinidad, so I am interested in the waves in July, they tend to bring bad weather here.
Gust front with Approaching Boomer..Lake Ponchartrain Sliding WSW toward west New Orleans,Metairie-Kenner Area..Link
Do anybody think this hurricane season do anything even after the pattern shift July 29th? I'm really starting to think the African dust itself will limit most activity for the rest of the season...
Everyone having lot's of gut feelings, nagging feelings, that this year is it for them, no matter where they live... VA, Caymans, FL, or TX. Same gut feelings last year. Must be human nature... everyone's a mystic.

It's all exciting until you actually have to board up and watch the thing clobber your neighborhood and knock the power out for weeks leaving a big mess... then it's just an exhausting pain in the a**.
Any storms that form, will have to do so where there is no Sahara dust ( or dry Sahara air ) That leaves the atlantic south of about 15 deg., and the GOM, and the east coast from Florida north.

( are'nt predictions fun ?? )
I am a lurker, and I finally registered to post a question... I have read alot about Florida might be in for a rough season.. What about the carolinas? Anybody have a gut feeling for us?
JP,
I just watched Eye on the Tropics on WRDQ 27 with Tom Terry and he echoed Jeff Masters sentiments of a ridge and tracks similiar to 04 storms he said could get very close to the Gulf closer then we'd like.
I kinda have a gut feeling that it's the Florida Panhandle's turn this season for a pretty powerful storm... hopefully not too bad, though.

I rode out Katrina... I certainly wouldn't wanna wish that junk on ANYBODY
jp what are your thoughts on that wave off of africa
2004 and 2005 had lots of Saharan dust in July and into August too.... then bam!
keeping my eyes on the africa wave that looks best bet right now and on 20 north for the cmc model prediction on the ts . for now anyway
I have a gut feeling that tonight's Taco bell is going to bring a disaster in the southern region by morning... ugh!
It's all exciting until you actually have to board up and watch the thing clobber your neighborhood and knock the power out for weeks leaving a big mess... then it's just an exhausting pain in the a**.

I have some idea of what you mean, though I have never been in one (being in the middle of the country), I have been through some bad weather, especially last year:

The Heat Wave of 2006 derecho series was a series of severe wind events associated with powerful thunderstorms, known as Derechos, that occurred in a five-day period between July 17 and July 21, 2006. The first storms took place across a wide swath of north-central and northeastern North America stretching from the Upper Midwest, through much of Ontario and into the northeastern United States. Another round of storms affected the middle Mississippi River Valley, notably the city of St. Louis, Missouri, which took a direct hit twice by powerful derechos. During the period over 3,000,000 people across the region were left without power from the storms, some more than once and some did not have power restored for weeks after the event.
Do La guy do english?
New Storms erupting over the City Proper..The Boomer still inbound with possible Half-inch hail...Link
I had no such feelings last year.
I also had no such feelings in 05.
Only 04 and this year. In 04 I had
no power for a month and a half.
Not "mystical" or "magical" I believe
every living thing is in tune with nature.
like when an animal grows a thicker
winter coat when it's going to be a cold
winter. I believe that that's how God made
us.
if somthing does form around 20 north like the cmc is thinking it will be a ts for fla lets see who will be the first to spot it . again there will not be too much warning it will be close if does happen so stay tuned
This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas northward. The east coast of Florida would remain at normal risk.


Really I think I beg to differ with Normal Risk, 04 was not normal risk nor 05, let's see Jeanne, Katrina, Frances, Ophelia



Statement from NWS TBW:

... New buoy offshore of the Tampa Bay waters...

The buoy is located about 90 miles west of Egmont Key and is owned and maintained by scripps institution of oceanography. Data provided includes wave height... dominant wave period and water temperature. This data is available from the National data buoy center web site listed below.

Station: 42099
water depth: 93.9 meters
latitude: 27.3403 north
longitude: 84.245 west
data: http://www.Ndbc.NOAA.Gov/station_page.Php?Station=42099


I have a nagging gut paranormal feeling this thing will be part of a deep water artificial reef by Nov 30, 2007.
wave off Africa is just that, it just came off of Africa, no circulation with it, watch it and see, but im not too impressed with it right now

You aren't impressed by the convection? o.o

The convection is very impressive. I'm not concerned with development yet, though. Not at all.

And people seriously, omg, there isn't very much SAL around. It's moderate at most; there aren't really any pink areas in that SAL graph. SAL is tapering off, whether anyone believes it or not. It's true.

023
WFUS53 KGLD 140245
TORGLD
NEC087-140330-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0084.070714T0246Z-070714T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STRATTON NE...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 53.

IF YOU ARE AT HOME...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT IF POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. AVOID
WINDOWS AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 4016 10077 4016 10132 4001 10132 4000 10079

023
WFUS53 KGLD 140245
TORGLD
NEC087-140330-
/O.NEW.KGLD.TO.W.0084.070714T0246Z-070714T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
946 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 943 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF STRATTON NE...MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL OTHERWISE IMPACT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF THE
INDICATED COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 34 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 45 AND 53.

IF YOU ARE AT HOME...SEEK SHELTER IN A BASEMENT IF POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...GO TO A SMALL INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR. AVOID
WINDOWS AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 4016 10077 4016 10132 4001 10132 4000 10079

Link
"Stormhype: I have a gut feeling that tonight's Taco bell is going to bring a disaster in the southern region by morning... ugh!"


ROTFL!!!!
740. RL3AO
Thank you JP. I've been following the blog all day and I can't believe some of this "blobs" that people are watching for development.
Radar TVS..Link
Grab Toto and head fer da cellar..
The sahara dust may have actually played
a role in steering the storms.It may have kept
storms that formed further north(Katrina,Rita,
possibly even Frances) weaker so they wouldn't
recurve until they got closer to Florida and the
gulf. Storms taking the southern route (into the
carribean) were south of the dust got stronger
sooner and generally turned northward from the
carribean into the gulf.(Ivan' Dennis, Wilma) this
was a lose/lose for Florida and the Gulf states
because the weaker north tracking storms got free
of the dust as they neared the Gulf. Once free
of the sahara dust these storms strengthened then
turned northward into the Gulf States too. this better?
sorry, i'll try 4 next time
I live in Satsuma,Al and we had some bad storms come thru here earlier and we lost power and the winds where blowing pretty hard and the rain was hard. but it cooled everything down. It was a rough storm.
Jp,
What does impress me of that wave off Africa is the moisture out front of it something prior waves lacked.
Well, there are two area of interests...the one that just exited the african coast and the CATL wave near South America

Both of them are very unlikely to form...but maybe in a few days conditions may become more favorable for some slow development. Umm...well, that is if they're still around in a few days. lol

Shear isn't currently any problem for any waves and the dry-air and dust seems to be limited.

Even though the CMC is picking up on a storm forming and hitting Florida doesn't mean it will happen. It's very, very unlikely for that scenario to come to play..unless other models pick up on this, of course, and stay consistent. Other than that, I wouldn't pay much attention to it...

But overall, IF anything were to form, I give the better percentages to the South American CATL wave since it has stuck around longer...the new wave off of Africa needs to hold its convection during the day consistently before development is actually possible...and that is if it makes it though any dry air or dust that might come its way.

750. JLPR
Well i think that the wave in the central atlantic should die soon because its supposed to be the time to fire up now at night and it's not doing it.
Now the one in Africa really looks amazing compared to others earlier this year.
I've been following Man-Yi and trying to find different live cams and came across these, which actually are from numerous places in Japan. They may be interesting to follow as the typhoon crosses Japan.
Link
Evening all :~)

Spent a long day editing and archiving video among...Arghhh

Anywho, I have added some pretty cool lightning pics to my blog and have also updated the SST comparison maps.
Good evening wanted to post this article real quick...

No La Nina This Summer, NOAA Says
By RASHA MADKOUR (Associated Press Writer)
From Associated Press
July 13, 2007 7:33 PM EDT
MIAMI - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that La Nina - a cooling of Pacific Ocean waters that generally brings a more active Atlantic hurricane season - will be absent for the next two months.

But don't get rid of those disaster kits just yet.

The absence of La Nina doesn't necessarily herald a tame summer for tropical storms and hurricanes, said Dennis Feltgen, meteorologist and spokesman for NOAA in Miami.

"There are so many other ingredients that contribute to the development of tropical cyclones, it's not just the fact that we don't have a La Nina that comes into play here," Feltgen said.

Hurricane season 2005 was a textbook example of this. La Nina wasn't around, but the season managed to break records, with 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes, seven of which were major.

La Nina is the counterpart to the better known El Nino, a warming of Pacific waters near the equator that creates a less conducive environment for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic. Both ocean conditions are hard to predict long-term and don't follow regular patterns.

This year, forecasters have predicted an above-average hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November. They believe there will be 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 of them becoming hurricanes and three to five of those reaching at least Category 3 strength.

Part of the reason behind this, Feltgen said, is that we're in an active hurricane cycle - a phenomenon of heightened activity that can last for decades. The last one spanned the 1940s through 1960s. The current one started in 1995 and could last for another decade, Feltgen said.

"So all things being equal, we expect an above average number of cyclones," he added. "Be prepared."

There have been two named storms in 2007: Subtropical Storm Andrea, which formed in May, and Tropical Storm Barry, which formed June 1, the first day of hurricane season.

Here is the wave off the African coast still well organised. By lunch time Sunday it may give you all something to really watch

000
FXUS62 KMLB 140150
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...

WILL BE INCREASING POPS A LITTLE BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...SOME AREAS
OF EAST CENTRAL FL STILL NOT WORKED OVER BY CONVECTION AND A MID LVL
S/W ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NRN FL PENINSULA. EXPECT SCATTERED
ACTIVITY TO LINGER THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM BEFORE
DIMINISHING AND WILL ADD CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE GRIDS THROUGH THAT
TIME PERIOD. ALSO...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT TEMPS
BASED ON RAIN COOLED READINGS AT 00Z ACROSS AREAS WITH
CONVECTION/LIGHT RAIN. 15Z CAPE SOUNDING FROM EARLIER TODAY AGAIN
POINTED TO WET MICROBURSTS WHICH WE REALIZED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
THE STRONGEST RECORDED GUSTS WERE AROUND KTTS AT 64 AND 68 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS BASED ON CURRENT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS/OUTFLOWS...THEN SHOULD SEE RETURN TO S/SSW FLOW
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FROM KMLB-KVRB WILL BE PUSHING OFF
INTO THE ATLC THROUGH 03Z...BUT STILL A CHC FOR TSRRA FROM KLEE-KDAB
THROUGH AROUND 05Z.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

VOLKMER/WIMMER








Severe storms produced hurricane force wind gusts in parts of east central Florida today
JLPR...I think the central atlantic wave has a chance though, to get some convection back...if it doesn't in the next 24 hours, I think chances of development will definately have decreased a lot.

But, the truth is, there isn't any "real" threats for formation as of now...we are just looking at typical July waves rolling through-out the atlantic with a lot of hype, but with very little chances of development.
no im not impressed with its convection, its the middle of the night there, convection should look good at this time

Oh yeah, I forgot about that. Stupid me. >_>

I do need to see the wave keep its convection throughout the daytime for two consecutive days before I'm worried. I just don't see that happening.
Isn't that wave a little too far south?
Kman...we'll see...lol
Posted By: nawlinsdude at 3:28 AM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Isn't that wave a little too far south?

If you mean the wave in the far E ATL, absolutely not. Its around 9 N now.
hurricane23: In response to that article: I wouldn't count La Nia out yet. I am not wishcasting for it definitely, but just saying, don't count it out just yet. Cooler water in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is still there, and is actually spreading more westward than it was, looking at the SST map on wunderground's tropical page. While I still doubt an official La Nia will occur, a cold-bias ENSO neutral appears likely, and keep in mind that's what 2005 had, as that article said.
762. JLPR
Yup exactly weatherblog typical waves.
Why one gets hipper when a blob forms lol we should take it easy.
:D
Gdnsetter- try rolaids, maybe zantac 75
Taco Bell causes excess abdominal shear.
Not good for Tropical development, just
convection.
Weatherblog

Thats the best looking one to come off this season but I will not be watching it every hour on the hour LOL
I think conditions are getting more favorable by the day and its only a matter of time now, theres no dry air left off the coast of Africa and look at the convection moving through Africa on Kman's picture. The Steering currents are not so good for the U.S. or the Islands. Shear is somewhat high but that will come down soon, when you think of it the only thing that might prevent development is ULL and their position. Just my take I think the quietness is over.
Lightning Pics, for taking it easy ☺
JLPR, yup, unless something big happens like a circulation in the low levels with some banding, then we shouldn't worry. I don't see any of that with this wave yet. Don't forget people that tropical cyclones are organized areas of deep convection that have a closed surface circulation.

This means that just because a blob looks impressive, doesn't necessarily mean it will develop. Without turning and all that, a blob is just that - a blob.
nawlinsdude...as of now, it is, but will most likely gain latitude as it travels through the atlantic...

I think it's moving at wnw path..so it should??

lol...im confusing myself.
769. 0741
when their wave out their this blog go cazy
I think that African wave has a great chance to develop because it has moisture on the West side something past waves lacked.
Well see you guys lunch time Sunday ( or before ) LOL

Good night all.
I am still going with what this says - a strong La Nina (not to mention that just about EVERY model says so - wouldn't YOU think that something was up if many models forecast something):



And I look at current trends as well:



Oh, the ECMWF was practically DEAD ON in its March forecast for April-June SST anomalies...
No offense sporteguy, but it's too early to tell. It may be impressive tonight, but if it isn't impressive tommorow, it may just fizzle out in about 3 days without doing a thing.
well local news metion the catl wave again said it will bring rain to so fla in 4 days didnt say it will develope . but my favoite is the africa wave right now .
Not crazy, but when you notice changes in patterns it makes you more alert to what is happening and I see changes to are promoting to development real soon in the Atlantic.
same her bill
Kori,
I agree but notice the changes that are occuring past waves did not have western convection this one does in the very least the short term. Thats telling me the atmosphere is changing out there and the next wave will have a better chance.
MichaelSTL-- I think you are right. We could have a La Nina year this year. Based off of your pictures, it seems reasonable.
Taz,
You see what I said about the western convection?
local mets said la nina is and will stay nuetual same as 2005 .
umm thats disturbing has anyone checked out Man-yi lately???


Cause its lookin much more impressive on sattelite, not weakening...
did anyone see the 10 day gfs run ouch
is the new cmc out yet
hate to inform u guys but according to tropical outlook discussion they have reported a low level and mid level turning in wide area in that wave off africa
yes 03 i did
Posted By: stormybil at 8:50 PM PDT on July 13, 2007.

did anyone see the 10 day gfs run ouch


why you say that bill???
787. JLPR
well if la nia gets going and the tropical waves start to get bigger and stronger we may have a busy season ahead.
And with that pattern that Jeff masters said it would be a desaster.
Lets see how it plays.
if i am reading it right the 10 day gfs run forms the african wave strong then drops it after 2 days while in the atl. but from the 18 on it has big things happening in the atl.
ok ill let u guys call it im not sure here is the link
Link
790. JLPR
yup Jedkins Man-yi is looking strong
with a nice eye
MichaelSTL-- I think you are right. We could have a La Nina year this year. Based off of your pictures, it seems reasonable.

I also have a problem with NOAA's definition:

For historical purposes cold and warm episodes (blue and red colored numbers) are defined when the threshold is met for a minimum of 5 consecutive over-lapping seasons.

That means 5 overlapping 3 month periods, and you may recall that even though there were some clear signs of an El Nino developing as early as May in 2006, they didn't delare one until September (and many people were supposedly taken by surprise and used that as an excuse for all of the blown forecasts, when some did indeed forecast an El Nino, like this site):

from the 2006 Hurricane season forecast

The Hurricane season of 2006 will NOT be nearly as bad as many forecasters are forecasting. WxRisk is calling for 13 named Tropical Cyclones... and it could less than that IF an El Nino develops by AUGUST 2006. There will be nothing like the severe Hurricane activity in the Gulf . WXRISK also strongly disagrees with the assertion made by some other well known Private weather forecast services that the East coast will see an increased chance of seeing several Land falling Hurricane or near Misses in 2006. In fact WXRISK sees a late Summer early Autumn pattern that makes such a forecast extremely unlikely.


They now say this about this year:

The QBO will continue to drop into the Negative numbers.... probably reaching -20 or greater during the Heart of the Hurricane season.

In addition Wxrisk.com sees at least a 50% chance a moderate La Nina developing during the heart of the Summer and into the early autumn and a 25% of seeing the La Nina reaching STRONG threshold for several weeks


And add this tidbit about the QBO and 2005/2006 - and then what is happening this year:

The QBO massive switch 2005 vs 2006. The 3 most destructive and active months of any Hurricane season on record was AUG / SEPT/ OCT 2005. In those months the AUGUST of 2005 QBO value was the strongest Negative Value AUG value ever recorded (since 1950) and 3rd lowest of all time. The QBO value in SEPT 2005 was the lowest Negative QBO value EVER as was OCTOBER 2005. Now in AUG 2006 (+9.10) the QBO was 35 points HIGHER than AUG 2005 .... In SEPT 2006 (+10.20) the QBO Value was 37 points higher .... and in OCT 2006 the QBO value (+10.86) was again +40 Points higher when compared to OCT 2005 . The point is that this massive swing in the QBO was NOT supportive of the forecast for a Much above Normal activity Hurricane season for 2006 .
792. JLPR
Jum your right bil im asking myself why if it forms a low in the african wave then drops the low ...
what could cause the low to go away?
...
maybe dust i don't know
:S
does anybody know what happened in the latest run of the cmc
maybe dust i don't know

i dont know either hehe let the pros ill tell us .

does anybody know what happened in the latest run of the cmc

cant wait to see the new run too
Some great research there Michael...!

Unfortunately, this is going to be a really bad year with the steering currents and the hot, hot, hot SST's... though the La Nina surely doesn't help to this season's forecasted 2005/2004 set-up.

Just to mention, the wave off of Africa is taking advantage of the night...looks better every frame. But, as it turns to day there, most of its convection will probably fizzle.


If it does keep the convection and structure in the next 24-48 hours, an invest is possible...but I don't see anthing more than that, due to the fact it's only July and the environment is not totally favorable.

But, of course, the most likely scenario is it to fizzle and not amount to anything...just as it's brother's and sister's (93L, 96L and numerous of other waves)...lol
796. JLPR
i dont know either hehe let the pros ill tell us .


:D:D
797. JLPR
hey people what do you think of my three wunderphotos?

just click my name to see them
Typhoon Man-Y has just made landfall on Kyushu


http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/imgs/radar/215/200707141250-00.png


does anybody know what happened in the latest run of the cmc

The 12z run (00z should be coming out soon) shows a a pretty strong storm system impacting South Florida. The CMC is showing consistency, but as of yet no other model has shown anything developing in this area.

850 Vort

I found something interesting about the equatorial SOI (not the same SOI that is based on Darwin and Tahiti, like Australia's BOM has):



2007 is ahead of 1995 and 1998.
hmm i dont see that materializing... i mean they call for it to come out of our old wave that has pretty much dissipated by now.
although ive seen enough systems dissipate and resuscitate to know that its not over till its over.
Tropics quiet....

shhhh


Don't disturb them
This would bring a hurricane steering pattern much like we saw in 2004 and 2005, with increased risk for the Gulf of Mexico and reduced risk for the U.S. East Coast from the Carolinas



i hope the good dr doesnt mind us sharing this view with cnn and some other major networks so that all can be aware of this new weather pattern change and the fact that some are at much less risk now possibly
K8eCane: I seriously hope you aren't sharing that with CNN and others. They would overhype it completely, and get everyone worried when the main part of the season has yet to pan out.
Tropics quiet....

For now they are. ;)
Getting a little nighttime thunderstorm activity here. No rain so far, but definitely some storms building to the south of here.

Wonder if this is the northern-most edge of that Twave that is crossing the central Caribbean right now . . .
The CMC is very persistent in generating a significant storm near S Florida. It now has the storm skirting the southern tip of Florida and moving into the Gulf about 5 days from now. Note that at the same time this storm centre is skirting S Florida, the model is now showing a lesser storm coming ashore near Galveston. Is this the old one-two shaping up?
omg if they cmc is right THATS the day of Warped tour ;[
Posted By: KoritheMan at 5:08 AM GMT on July 14, 2007.

K8eCane: I seriously hope you aren't sharing that with CNN and others. They would overhype it completely, and get everyone worried when the main part of the season has yet to pan out.





are you kidding? thats important information
I'm sure they'd pick up on it even if you didn't tell them. Don't they always?
All I'm saying is, even if the setup is like 2004 and 2005, that doesn't mean crap if the upper-level conditions aren't favorable. I am betting they will be, but just saying. We don't know how 2007 will pan out just yet.
well i think people need all the heads ups they can get!
i'm off
for now
randommichael said:
I didn't have these bad feelings in 2005, or 2006...this year though I've just knew this was the year. That's why I found this site and began to follow it. I've just had an awful nagging feeling. A couple of nights ago I had this dream where I left home and came back and nothing was there. Just a concrete foundation. I hope that isn't going to happen, but my gut is hardly ever wrong.


ROFLMAO

Bad feelings could be a sign of depression. Pfizer says see your doctor. Nagging could be coming from your wife. Bon Scott says see your backdoor man.

On a serious non-paranormal note:
Latest CMC again shows extreme S and possible SW florida storm but it's past 5 days out which holds little credibility.
815. IKE
Someone posted about it earlier...I looked...and the GEM/CMC is still on board with a storm developing in the SE Bahamas...heading across extreme southern Florida. It puts it in the extreme SE GOM in 144 hrs. w/1001 mb's.....


Link
168 hours has a 996mb storm in the central GOM. Looks like it runs it into south Texas and Mexico. But that is a ridiculously long way out.
817. IKE
The latest unreliable NAM 06Z run...has some impressive moisture building in the SE Bahamas in 84 hours...almost the same spot the GEM/CMC starts the system at....


Link
818. IKE
Anticyclone1...appears to aim it toward the central GOM coast at 996mb's.
820. IKE
Ok...I see it at 192...that's an odd path...from the SW coast of Florida, toward the central GOM coast...to west-SW, aiming it toward Texas/Mexico.
CMC still showing signs of the wave found around 15N/55W entering the Caribbean around 66 hours but has moved it more southeast now, sliding a bit south of Florida into the GOM. It has been pretty consistent on this feature developing, but none of the other models are showing development atm.

The GFS shows convection associated with this wave impacting Florida 166 hours out but no significant development(depicting a slower moving wave then the CMC does).

NOGAPS appears to be moving this wave on a more southeastern track, running into the Yucatan Peninsula and showing no development.

USTropics
822. IKE
Must be a drunk storm in the GOM!

It is odd IKE. But it's so far in the future, I hate even posting the chart.
824. IKE
Miami, FL. extended...


"Monday through middle week...model confidence is low at this point
and have not made many changes to the going forecast as a result.
The GFS continues to advertise a surge in moisture from the
southeast...possibly associated with the northern extent of a
tropical wave moving through the northwest Caribbean...moving across
South Florida with significantly higher chances for
showers/thunderstorms on Monday...and then the southeasterly flow
continues into Thursday with daily moisture surges and a period of
higher probability of precipitation. However, only about half of the GFS ensembles are as
aggressive with this pattern and the Canadian/European model (ecmwf) models do not
agree either. Most guidance agree on taking a tropical wave
currently along 50w across the region in the Wednesday time frame
with just continued easterly flow and mainly western interior
convection between Monday and Wednesday.
825. IKE
Key West forecast discussion....


"Forecast...
has the long awaited northward migration of the Atlantic high
pressure ridge begun? A check with the Cudjoe Key profiler indicates
steady albeit light winds out of the east and southeast through 15k
feet. The simple upper air pattern becomes slightly more complex as a
deep trough axis builds in near or west of the Mississippi River
through the weekend. This may allow the weak western portion of the
middle level ridging over the Atlantic to edge through the central
Florida Peninsula...with low level ridge axis drifting further north
towards North Florida. It is cautioned that the numerical
predictions of this happening keep sliding back in time...but
perhaps the depth of the midwestern trough will finally do the
trick. As low to middle level ridging drift north...it allows energy
from the southern portion of a central Atlantic trough to possibly
close off and role southwest or west under the ridge. The GFS shows
a stronger solution with a closed low at 250 mb rolling west
southwest towards Cuba...providing upper diffluence at that level
working into The Straits. Beneath...one of many minor perturbations
rippling through the easterlies becomes favorably positioned
according to the GFS and rightfully flares enough to bring very high
chance probability of precipitation by Monday. The NAM is more reserved although it
acknowledges an approaching upper trough from the east.
However...even the wet GFS solution shows dry air at middle levels
poised just to the north...which could easily be brought south to
temper any chance of a widespread convective event over the Keys.
For this reason...the upward click of probability of precipitation from 30 to 40 percent
will hold for Monday."
826. IKE
The water temps in the gulf are getting warmer..the 90's are expanding in the eastern GOM...

The buoy 262 miles south of Panama City, Fl. yesterday got up to 92 degrees!
Ike,
The track the CMC has makes no sense after the system crosses FL the weakness is right there in the ridge does not make sense for system to move SW instead of a more NNW around the ridge? The GFS model shows the ridge extended into the Gulf then the track the CMC has would make more sense if it followed the GFS guidance.
i hope the good dr doesnt mind us sharing this view with cnn and some other major networks so that all can be aware of this new weather pattern change and the fact that some are at much less risk now possibly

CNN reported this 2 days ago.
HArd to initalize anything without genesis occuring .They arent gospel..only numerical insight to a possible scenerio.A model
830. IKE
And the ridge should be breaking down by the end of next week...


"Global models then showing signs toward the beginning of next
weekend of East Coast troughing trying to break down the ridge."....

From the Tallahassee,Fl. extended.
All coastal areas from Brownsville to MAine..are vulnerable to Danger. Every year...
All the networks have Mets who get the info,...
N Atlantic Imagery

Link
No they are not Gospel Patrap, sometimes they show pattterns that set-up or trends. Dr.M I think posted a few years back a GFS model showing three systems in the ATL and said most likely this won't happen but is a pattern or trend towards development in that area. That ended up being the case.
835. IKE
Found this in the 8:05 AM EDST tropical weather discussion...

"A middle to upper level cyclonic circulation center
is near 23n60w and may impact the Caribbean Sea after another
24 to 48 hours.".....


Wonder if that's connected with the GEM/CMC and the 84 hour NAM model run?
Like I mentioned..its "numerical insight",Tools for da trade. The frays will pick up soon. Its time and the conditions are swinging into place.
The 10day GFSx...Link
Good morning everyone.

Just checked the 00z CMC. I see they have kept the hurricane solution and it is a little further south....

Morning Nash. The long-range takes it into the GOM as a hurricane hitting Mexico.
Here is a blog reply to me from our local meteorologist from Fox News.. Paul Dellegatto

Hey Nash,

Excellent points. I noticed on some of the longer range models that the Bermuda high is expected to strengthen in its more traditional position while the troughiness along the east coast weakens. The CMC model even trys to spin something towards us in 6-7 days though that looks questionable. The Pacific is still in an ENSO neutral state with a shift to more of a La Nina pattern expected.
The most active part of the season is getting closer. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Stay tuned!
would someone please post a link to the models?
google Hurricane models and you can get them all.Its easy.
Fox casting...interesting
I really like Paul. He's a good guy..
Good local mets carry the load for the Locals.
Our FOX local guy has like 25years here on the same channel.Bob Breck
Here is my reply to Paul that I just sent....

Hey Paul. Thanks for the reply:-) The 00z run of the CMC/GEM still shows hurricane passing south of FL into the Gulf. They need to show consistency as well as some of the other globals jumping on board before I buy into the solution...

One thing to note is that the CMC nailed TS Barry several days out, and it was basically the only model that handled Barry well.. What is interesting to me is that Barry deepened quickly under pretty hostile upper level conditions (30kt wind shear).. I think the CMC is picking up on this again. Barry had an anticyclone over it for a short period of time, which protected it allowing some deepening before the shear tore it up as it approached the coast...
848. IKE
Here's a link for the models....

Link
Thank you
I see their is a blowup of thunderstorms in the southern part of the bahamas is that the start of this hurricane that the cmc is predicting
CMC's track: and intensity:

According to that track, the CMC is showing one hell of a blocking high over the Gulf.
853. IKE
Posted By: al3112 at 8:09 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
I see their is a blowup of thunderstorms in the southern part of the bahamas is that the start of this hurricane that the cmc is predicting


I doubt it...the CMC doesn't really form anything until about Monday or Tuesday.

Looks like a track someone overlayed on a MAp...never seen that look before.
855. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 8:11 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
According to that track, the CMC is showing one hell of a blocking high over the Gulf.


And I haven't read anywhere about a massive high over the SE USA next weekend.
Anyone notice at the end of the CMC run that bit of energy coming ashore in Texas?
Agreed Ike...

I just checked all of the models and cannot find a blocking high in that position....
858. IKE
I saw a 1012mb low going into SE TX on that CMC....

Forecast for the northern gulf coast this weekend. Plenty of rain. Maybe too much in spots...New Orleans is thinking of issuing a Flash Flood Watch at some time.
A big ol high on the 24th Im seeing. With a westward nose ..protruding into the GOM central.

Link
Florida Panhandle rain maybe?
Great find Pat! CMC has a steering in place before that high flanks.
Ike I know it doesn't show anything for a while but the tropical wave that yall expect to be the wave to develop is dissipating so it could be possible that this blowup can possibly join with this tropical wave and form into something
UNISYS GFSx has a good record on the 7-10day time frame
Thanks Pat. I added that to my endless weather bookmarks:-)
Surface chart. Valid 7/19.
Guys and gals-

Has anyone heard from StormW? I am getting worried about his well being since he went to the hospital.
Has anyone heard from StormW? I know he wasn't feeling well - wondering if anyone has seen him or heard from him...
Guess we're thinking along the same lines Nash - I usually get an email from him every day and I haven't heard a word or seen him here since he said he was going in to get checked out.
869. IKE
Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:17 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Florida Panhandle rain maybe?


Yup...more rain. Fire ban lifted in Walton County.
Me either Mel. I just sent him an email asking about him....

I ma little concerned.
871. IKE
Posted By: al3112 at 8:20 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Ike I know it doesn't show anything for a while but the tropical wave that yall expect to be the wave to develop is dissipating so it could be possible that this blowup can possibly join with this tropical wave and form into something


I don't know. The area to look at seems to be the SE Bahamas in 3 or 4 days.
anyone have his phone number? Last time we spoke on the cell I was in Tampa (about 5 months ago) and I didn't store the number in my cell...
Let's see if the CMC stays consistent. If it does for the next two days, then we have something to keep an eye on..
Sorry, bad choice of words with "eye".

:-)
I don't Mel. We had been discussing about dinner and drinks after work soon, since he lives pretty close by.
876. ryang
Morning Everyone...
877. IKE
Wasn't he having some type surgery? I remember him posting on it?

The Bahamas has an increased chance of rain next Tuesday/Wednesday...3 to 4 days out.


"Tuesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. High: 86 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 40%.
Tuesday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. Low: 78 F. Wind ESE 13 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. High: 86 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%.
Wednesday Night
Chance of a Thunderstorm. Scattered Clouds. Low: 78 F. Wind ESE 11 mph. Chance of precipitation 50%."
He's unlisted to boot. Guess we're just gonna have to wait and see. Nash - do you have his regular email address? I was cleaning up my mailbox and deleted all the tropical updates.
Surgery? I don't remember that...
880. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 8:38 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Surgery? I don't remember that...


You're right. He didn't mention that. I remember now.
I might....

Hang on, let me see if I can find it.
He said he had been feeling dizzy for a few days - not feeling well.
Mel- You have mail.
Posted By: IKE at 1:29 PM GMT on July 14, 2007.

Posted By: MisterPerfect at 8:17 AM CDT on July 14, 2007.
Florida Panhandle rain maybe?

Yup...more rain. Fire ban lifted in Walton County.


Water restictions are slowly being lifted...
Come on Tropics...we've seen worse...give us a soakin!!

SHHHHHH MP!!!

Don't wake her.....
Crist signs orders for greener Florida
Cheered on by fellow Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, Gov. Charlie Crist signed tough -- if general -- orders to combat global warming.

BY MARTIN MERZER
MiamiHerald.com

The silver-haired governor of Florida stood arm-in-arm Friday with the silver-screen governor of California, joked about being recast in Twins, and then -- as the cameras rolled -- signed a groundbreaking set of environmental protection orders.

Gov. Charlie Crist described the mandates as a framework for a new, more future-friendly way of living and conducting business in Florida.

''State government is leading by example,'' he said. ``It is the right thing to do.''

It also is a popular thing to do. Symbolizing the new star power of environmentalism, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger joined Crist at the signing ceremony after delivering a variation of his trademark line:

'We have to say `Hasta la vista, baby' to greenhouse gases.''

Among the components of Crist's plan, long on goals though short on specifics:

Tough new pollution standards for automobiles; a strong regulatory push for solar and wind energy; state vehicles powered by biofuel -- all contributing to sharply reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 2017, with deeper cuts by 2025 and even more by 2050.

Friday's action propelled the state -- and Crist -- into the forefront of a new, still evolving but already politically popular struggle with global warming.

Schwarzenegger insisted that the effort represented more than a lot of hot air.

''We have our work cut out for us, and there is no time to waste,'' Schwarzenegger told 600 people at the conclusion of the two-day Florida Summit on Climate Change sponsored by Crist at the InterContinental Miami hotel. ``You are on your way.''

About an hour later, Crist signed three orders:

Many, but not all, state operations will be required to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide and other so-called greenhouse gases by 10 percent in 2012, 25 percent by 2017 and 40 percent by 2025.

New state buildings and rented offices must be ''energy efficient'' and include solar panels where possible. State vehicles must be ''fuel efficient'' and use ethanol and biodiesel fuels when available.

Exempted from the requirements, though ''encouraged'' to embrace them: the Legislature, university system, Cabinet agencies and several state departments.

Power companies must reduce emissions to 2000 levels by 2017, to 1990 levels by 2025 and to 80 percent of the 1990 levels by 2050.

State regulators must demand that utilities use wind, solar or other renewable sources to produce 20 percent of their power by 2020.

Florida will adopt California's motor vehicle emission standards, including a 22 percent reduction by 2012 and a 30 percent reduction by 2016. Those standards are being challenged in court.

Asked if he favored a return to annual inspections for Florida vehicles, a widely unpopular program that ended years ago, Crist said he preferred to pressure automakers into improving engines.

BEARING THE COST

No costs were detailed or even discussed, but most seemed likely to be borne by private industry, though they could be passed along to consumers in the form of higher prices and rates.

The varied forces at the conference -- activists, utility and other corporate officials, lobbyists, entrepreneurs -- largely lauded the effort and its goals. But they expressed awareness that the true test will come as specific plans are mapped to meet the general targets.

Challenges include technological limitations, financial constraints and competition from developing -- and less environmentally sensitive -- nations in Asia and elsewhere.

Michael Williams, a spokesman for Florida Power & Light, said his company already is recognized within the industry as a ''clean'' utility but is eager to move forward -- in ways to be determined.

'The governor has set the bar very high, and now we all have to go back and say, `OK, how do we get there?' '' Williams said.

Schwarzenegger said he has learned that some business interests might try to derail efforts to reduce pollution, even those sponsored by Republicans, who had been viewed as more sympathetic to business than Democrats.

As an example of what he faced, he mentioned a campaign in Michigan that accuses him of harming the auto industry.

'They have billboards that say, `Arnold to Michigan: Drop dead,' but that's not what I'm saying,'' Schwarzenegger told the crowd. 'What I'm saying is, `Arnold to Michigan: Get off your butts.' ''

He said Crist was joining him as a Republican governor who is ''defying conventional wisdom'' by adopting a program that could be seen as harmful to business and the economy.

''But we won't have an economy if we destroy our environment,'' Schwarzenegger said.

In addition, the Bush Administration has blocked progress at every turn, he said, compelling a growing number of governors to make an end run around Washington.

''They are not looking to Washington for leadership any more,'' Schwarzenegger said. ``They want to do their own thing.''

Finding a path through those minefields is essential, Crist and others said, especially for Florida.

ENERGY CONSUMPTION

The nation's fourth most populous state, Florida ranks third in total energy consumption -- and is still gaining an average of 980 residents a day. In addition, 70 percent of its electricity is produced by fossil fuels, which pollute the atmosphere with carbon emissions.

''State government is the largest single enterprise within Florida,'' Crist said. ``It makes sense for us to lead by example, and over the course of this summit, we will begin that leadership.''

He and supporters said that by the end of the two-day conference, little doubt remained that an important corner had been turned -- not only for the state but for the nation.

''What happens in Florida does not stay in Florida,'' said Larry Schweiger, chief executive officer of the National Wildlife Federation. ``Florida is now in the eye of a great storm.''
Total Recall!!
I sure miss StormW's input in this CMC Model Nash, he would have great analysis on this, I hope he is ok he is missed on here.
Bring it on NASH...Florida needs it.
right back at ya, Nash.
Gotta run for a bit.

BBL.
892. IKE
Look at all of those clouds in SE Texas and western LA just exploding...and it's moving east...
Florida Panhandle is ready for the soakin'

Starting early in east texas...
I hear thunder in Miami..darnit...am I ever gonna get to play golf?
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2007


...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 25W/26W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 25W AND 29W.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM 10N TO 17N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...WITH ONE CYCLONIC CENTER POSSIBLY NEAR
13N23W AND ANOTHER ONE POSSIBLY NEAR 15N27W.
896. IKE
I was just looking at that wave off of Africa...moving west...doesn't look bad.
That CMC track drawn is to south its a little futher north and closer to the florida keys.

Not much model support here and also keep in mind the CMC model has done poor so far this season on genesis.
Miami Herald Tower Cam
July 14, 2007 9:55 am
Miami, Florida



What a Wunderful Day
so whats the time line of this storm that cmc is predicting
Morning all ☺

I see the CMC is still at it, but as 23 said there is not much other model support for it yet.

Added some lightning pics to my blog last night and hope to get more up on the website today depending on what the weather here does as we could have a stormy afternoon in some places.

Off to get the mop chopped, see y'all this afternoon
Nice pics SJ!

That's dangerous photography
More southflorida cams here on my site...

SEE HERE
Thanks MP ☺

I know, kind of stupid. But then some get there kicks jumping out of perfectly good planes, bungee jumping, mountain biking, etc...I try to be a safe as I can, but when I went back and looked at this video, some of these strikes were closer then I would have liked. I do try to keep myself under good cover for the most part.
where is that Adrian?
I agree 23, except for one storm.... Barry. It was the only major model to handle the formation and strength of that one very well.
jumping out of perfectly good planes

Point break reference...where's my Reagan mask..

Try the link again misterperfect i fixed it.
Hello everyone. I see the CMC 0z still wants a hurricane in Florida lol.
I'm closest to the Cocowalk Cam so are you bro
I'm listening to Jeff Masters on NPR. He's talking about the NHC.

Mostly making the points he made here, but for a much wider audience.

I'm sure you'll be able link to his interview.
I don;t know about that Random Mike...


I feel a 1998 or 1999 Florida year...
I'm listening to Jeff Masters on NPR. He's talking about the NHC.

Mostly making the points he made here, but for a much wider audience.

I'm sure you'll be able link to his interview.
link Dr. M do it!
I got Barometer Bob to admit being a die-hard Dolphins fan on his blog the other day..lol
Does Environment Canada think highly of the CMC model? I wonder why it sees something the other models don't?
New blog is up.

Really off to get hair cut now...
MrPerfect: I see you said something about the Dolphins back when we lived in Tampa,Fla my dad loved the dolphins and watched every game. My Uncle Sonny was good friends with Don Shula and I have 2 Footballs signed 1 by Don Shula and 1 from Bob Greisy. I have them put up there i think there about 32 yrs old. I just thought I would add this little tid bit. Sorry off the subject back to weather. Sheri
Hurricaniac, plz don't agitate. The inmates are watching, and it won't be pretty.