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Major Nor'easter pounds New England; icy mess in the South; record floods in Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:10 PM GMT on January 12, 2011

A classic Nor'easter continues to intensify this morning off the New England coast, bringing heavy snow and strong winds from New Jersey to Maine. The snow has ended in New York City, which received 9.1" at Central Park as of 7am EST. Heavier snows of just over a foot fell on nearby regions, with 12.1" in Bedford Park, 13.2" in Levittown, and 12.5" in East Rutherford, NJ. The heaviest snow is occurring in Connecticut, where a storm-high 23" has fallen so far at North Haven. Twenty-two inches fell at Ridgefield on the Connecticut/New York border. The storm is at peak intensity this morning in Rhode Island and Massachusetts, and blizzard warnings are now posted for Boston and the surrounding coast of Massachusetts. Blizzard conditions occur when a storm has frequent wind gusts over 35 mph or sustained winds over 35 mph, plus visibility less than 1/4 mile for at least three consecutive hours. Today's Nor'easter intensified a little more than expected, reaching a central pressure of 983 mb at 8am EST. The storm is currently centered along the Southeast Massachusetts coast, and is bringing very high winds to all of coastal Massachusetts. Winds at the Provincetown airport on the tip of Cape Cod were sustained at 43 mph, gusting to 79 mph, at 6:35am EST. A personal weather station at Humarock Beach in Scituate, southeast of Boston, recorded a wind gust of 64 mph at 5:51am EST this morning. Snow fall rates of 1 - 2 inches per hour are common over Rhode Island, western Connecticut, and much of Massachusetts this morning. Some of the heaviest bands are producing three inches of snow per hour, accompanied by thunder. The highest snowfall amounts in Massachusetts as of 6am EST were 14" at Goshen and Worthington. A few locations in the state may see as much as 20" from the storm.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image taken at 8:30am EST of the Nor'easter of January 12, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Winter misery continues in the South
Meanwhile, travel over much of the nation's South remains difficult this morning due to the winter storm that left up to a foot of snow and dangerous ice accumulations in its wake. Atlanta had all of its interstate highways open this morning, but continued icy conditions resulted in numerous crashes on area roads. With temperatures expected to remain below freezing in Atlanta and surrounding regions today, the area will be slow to shed its coasting of snow and ice. Temperatures will struggle to reach freezing on Thursday, and it is not until Friday that much of the South will see significant melting of their ice and snow. The South's storm began Sunday in northeast Texas and tracked eastward, bringing snow amounts as high as 7 - 8 inches to northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas, 9 - 11 inches to northern Mississippi, northern Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina, and southern Tennessee. The heaviest snow as reported in the NOAA Storm Summary occurred in the Smoky Mountains at Bakersville, North Carolina--20 inches. The worst freezing rain was reported in central Georgia at Wrightsville, which received 1.5" of ice. Aiken, South Carolina received 1" of ice, and numerous locations in South Carolina, Central Georgia, and Central Alabama received over 1/2" of ice. Freezing rain amounts of 1/4" were also reported in northern Louisiana, central Mississippi, and western Arkansas.

According to our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in his blog post this morning titled, "Snowstorms in the South: A Historical Perspective", the 8.9" that fell on Huntsville, Alabama from this week's storm was that city's third heaviest snow on record. The post has a nice summary of the remarkable heavy snow storms that have hit the South in the past.


Figure 2. A unusually heavy snow storm for North Carolina dropped 20" on Bakersville in the Smoky Mountains, and 7 inches in Asheville, near where this photo was taken. Image credit: wunderphotographer jettking..

Extreme flooding continues in Australia
Flood-weary Queensland, Australia suffered a new flooding disaster on Monday when freak rains of six inches fell in just 30 minutes near Toowoomba. The resulting flash flood killed twelve people, and 40 are still missing. The flood waters poured into the Brisbane River, causing it to overflow, and significant flooding of low-lying areas in Brisbane, Australia's third largest city with some 2 million people, is expected on Thursday. At least 20,000 homes and businesses are expected to be inundated when the Brisbane River crests at a record 18 feet, according to media reports. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) reports that an additional 100+ mm (4") of rain has fallen in the Brisbane area in the 24 hours ending at 9am local time this morning, further adding to the city's flood woes. No further significant rains are forecast in the Brisbane area until next week, though. According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, this is the most significant flooding event in Australia since at least the 1970s. In 2010, Australia had its wettest spring (September - November) since records began 111 years ago, with some sections of coastal Queensland receiving over 4 feet (1200 mm) of rain. Rainfall in Queensland and all of eastern Australia in December was the greatest on record, and the year 2010 was the rainiest year on record for Queensland. Queensland typically has its rainiest years when La Niña events occur, due to the much warmer than average ocean temperatures that occur along the coast. The BOM notes, "Previous strong La Niña events, such as those of 1974 and 1955, have also been associated with widespread and severe flooding in eastern Australia. Sea surface temperatures off the Queensland coast in recent months have also been at or near record levels." The BOM's annual summary also reported, "Sea surface temperatures in the Australian region during 2010 were the warmest value on record for the Australian region. Individual high monthly sea surface temperature records were also set during 2010 in March, April, June, September, October, November and December. Along with favourable hemispheric circulation associated with the 2010 La Niña, very warm sea surface temperatures contributed to the record rainfall and very high humidity across eastern Australia during winter and spring." Beginning in December, the Queensland floods have killed at least 22, and damage estimates are now as high as $13 billion. Queensland has an area the size of Germany and France combined.


Figure 3. Still frame from a remarkable 6-minute YouTube video showing the sad fate of a row of parked cars when a flash flood in Toowoomba, Queensland sweeps away dozens of the cars. A note to the wise: Two minutes into the video, we see a man enter the flash flood to save his car. He is successful, but his actions were extremely risky--most flash flood deaths occur when cars with people inside get swept away. I would not have attempted to save my car in that situation.

Jeff Masters
Snowstorm Arrives@ Newport, RI
Snowstorm Arrives@ Newport, RI
Fast and furious
roof glacier
roof glacier

Flood Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Around and around we go,

Where we stop...

Nobody knows.


Just as there's always been hurricanes, blizzards, and extreme weather...they'll always be part of the weather.
Looks like a warm up in 3 days and then lasting for about 5. Then another blast of cold air comes in late next week. I love the cold. I would just once, like to see snow 2 feet deep. Just see it and visit... Not live there!
Normal winter wx if you ask me.
Many of you were wondering about AussieStorm.

For those of you who might not look back at the previous blog now, here is his message from that blog

***********************

454. AussieStorm 2:23 PM GMT on January 12, 2011

Morning all. I was away from Australia for 5 weeks and returned to mass flooding in Qld. My back yard is a mess of dirt from overflowing pots. I am lucky. In SE Queensland it's a brown inland sea that's flowing towards the Pacific ocean.
Brisbane is expecting a peak flood height of 5.2m, There is 115,000 people without power. Billion$ worth of damage to infrastructure. Billion$ worth of lose of crops and coal production. Sadly 23 people have lost there lives since the flood crisis, 12 in the last few days. Currently there is 49 people missing. Whole towns have been wiped out. Whole towns have been evacuated.


Thanks Jeff...
Haiti marks its one year anniversary since the Earthquake. People are still miserable and thier leaders have been little or no help. Its corruption as usual and profits are being made off the backs of the Haitian people. Thank God for the private organizatios that have gone in and helped. Hopefully with thier outgoing president, 2011 will be better for them.
Thanks for the update Jeff. Just measured 14" in Methuen MA and still adding up, quite a storm.
You can really see the storm wrapping up on radar as it passes over SE MA. Link
Quoting scott39:
Haiti marks its one year anniversary since the Earthquake. People are still miserable and thier leaders have been little or no help. Its corruption as usual and profits are being made off the backs of the Haitian people. Thank God for the private organizatios that have gone in and helped. Hopefully with thier outgoing president, 2011 will be better for them.


nothing needs to be added to this except a hearty "Well said!!"
What's wrong with this picture?



While snow in Georgia is an inconvenince, it is good to see snow in the Rocky Mountains and the Sierras. Hopefully this will be enough for agriculture next summer.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Just as there's always been hurricanes, blizzards, and extreme weather...they'll always be part of the weather.

This is true. The looming questions are these:

Will such events get worse as the climate warms? And if so, how much worse?
As a public service from a snow driver to those in the South who haven't had to deal with this much I offer the following:

1) Make sure you have decent tires on your car.
2) Learn how your car handles on ice and snow by going to an empty parking lot or other safe location and do some emergency maneuvers such as, panic stop, hard avoidance turns left and right and skid control. Do this till comfortable with the car pointing one way while traveling in another direction.
3) Increase following distance by a factor of two or three.
4) Learn to stop without using brakes. Let the engine slow you.
5) Get a good snow brush and keep your windows clear, all of them. If you can't see where you are going and what is ahead you shouldn't be moving.
6) Warm up before moving so your defroster works.
7) Beware of idiots and don't be one yourself. Stop signs don't work if the other guy can't stop.
8) Full throttle doesn't make your car move faster on ice. Idle or a little more does. Tire adhesion on ice is about 1/10th or less of that on dry pavement. On snow it is about 2 to 3 tenths. ABS sometimes makes stops longer than expected on ice.
9) Pedestrians like walking in the road in winter snow. But you don't get points for knocking them down, especially kids playing in snowbanks.
Lake effect snow for the Marquette area is really going right now. Just got done shoveling a inch that fell in the last 1/2 hour and when I got done there was a 1/4 inch covering already. I'm getting just a little tired of these north winds!
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is true. The looming questions are these:

Will such events get worse as the climate warms? And if so, how much worse?

Oh no....the great global superstorms! Nooooooo!!

lol. Once again...and I'll keep going back to it because it cracks me up. But I still won't ever forgot everyone fearing we're all heading into the next ice age in the wake of the cold winters of the 1970's and 1980's. Oh no!!!! But last time I checked (it was this morning but I should check again just in case), the glaciers have not taken over yet. It's this same knee-jerk reaction scientists are applying to global warming when the earth decides to go through YET ANOTHER temperature trend that those scientists can never fully understand.

By the way...weren't you the one that said our nice little streak of 7 category 5 hurricanes over the past eight years (2003-2010) were perhaps the result of the warming climate? Well last time I checked, the seven year span of 1955-1961 had a streak of 6 cat 5's. If anyone thought that streak was a result of a warming globe, I'm sure that argument went straight out the window when the seven year span of 1981-1987 saw 0 category 5 hurricanes. Answer: It might be called a trend.
Quoting kellnerp:
As a public service from a snow driver to those in the South who haven't had to deal with this much I offer the following:

1) Make sure you have decent tires on your car.
2) Learn how your car handles on ice and snow by going to an empty parking lot or other safe location and do some emergency maneuvers such as, panic stop, hard avoidance turns left and right and skid control. Do this till comfortable with the car pointing one way while traveling in another direction.
3) Increase following distance by a factor of two or three.
4) Learn to stop without using brakes. Let the engine slow you.
5) Get a good snow brush and keep your windows clear, all of them. If you can't see where you are going and what is ahead you shouldn't be moving.
6) Warm up before moving so your defroster works.
7) Beware of idiots and don't be one yourself. Stop signs don't work if the other guy can't stop.
8) Full throttle doesn't make your car move faster on ice. Idle or a little more does. Tire adhesion on ice is about 1/10th or less of that on dry pavement. On snow it is about 2 to 3 tenths. ABS sometimes makes stops longer than expected on ice.
9) Pedestrians like walking in the road in winter snow. But you don't get points for knocking them down, especially kids playing in snowbanks.

Excellent. And I'd like to expound on your item #7: drive (in snow and any other conditions) defensively. That is, assume that every other person on the road is a first-time driver with an uncorrected vision impairment, an utter lack of spatial skills, non-existent hand/eye coordination, terrible reaction time, anger-management issues, a drinking problem, and a death wish, and that he or she is driving an old but overpowered vehicle with bald tires, weak brakes, no brake lights, broken turn signals, and missing mirrors, all while he or she is texting, talking on the phone, applying makeup, balancing a checkbook, updating his or her facebook status on a laptop, arguing with a spouse, trying to calm a crying infant, yelling at the kids in the back seat to stop fighting, following a GPS while looking at a map, and eating a cheeseburger while playing air guitar to the song blaring on the stereo. Oh, and late for work.

Assume that, and you'll be okay. ;-)
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Just as there's always been hurricanes, blizzards, and extreme weather...they'll always be part of the weather.


Too true! If conditions weren't different everyday, they would not be called 'weather', they'd be called 'definite' - or else just ignored.

I saw Baryshnikov trip on his way to accept some award on TV once, yet he still believed in AGW.
Quoting kellnerp:
As a public service from a snow driver to those in the South who haven't had to deal with this much I offer the following:

1) Make sure you have decent tires on your car.
2) Learn how your car handles on ice and snow by going to an empty parking lot or other safe location and do some emergency maneuvers such as, panic stop, hard avoidance turns left and right and skid control. Do this till comfortable with the car pointing one way while traveling in another direction.
3) Increase following distance by a factor of two or three.
4) Learn to stop without using brakes. Let the engine slow you.
5) Get a good snow brush and keep your windows clear, all of them. If you can't see where you are going and what is ahead you shouldn't be moving.
6) Warm up before moving so your defroster works.
7) Beware of idiots and don't be one yourself. Stop signs don't work if the other guy can't stop.
8) Full throttle doesn't make your car move faster on ice. Idle or a little more does. Tire adhesion on ice is about 1/10th or less of that on dry pavement. On snow it is about 2 to 3 tenths. ABS sometimes makes stops longer than expected on ice.
9) Pedestrians like walking in the road in winter snow. But you don't get points for knocking them down, especially kids playing in snowbanks.


Another one is this: 4 wheel drive only helps you go better in a straight line, e.g. up a hill. It doesn't make your car corner or stop any better.
All the extremes are what makes weather so fascinating, just feel the pain of those who suffer when those extreme situations occur on their portion of the planet. AI wonder how this big snow storm will affect those on the other side of the Atlantic?
19. Xion
We have about 25" now (on top of old snow) in North Haven, it's pretty insane considering we usually don't get even near this much.

Might post pics later if camera finishes charging.
"Extreme flooding in Australia"....

could it be..... GLOBAL WARMING?!.....AAAAGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!....

( brought to you by ManBearPig )

Hopefully with thier outgoing president, 2011 will be better for them.

sure.... just like 2010 was a banner year for us....
Quoting NRAamy:
"Extreme flooding in Australia"....

could it be..... GLOBAL WARMING?!.....AAAAGGGGGHHHHHHHHHH!!!....

( brought to you by ManBearPig )



It could certainly be due to Climate Change, Amy...

BTW

AMY!!!!!
Jerry!!!!

:)
Quoting youngmoney:


Yup, all that money raised by having Wycelf, Akon, etc. on National TV doing animalistic dances did no help. The only way people in Haiti will get help are by on ground operations such as PortLight. Haiti was in bad shape before the Earthquake and will be here on because of the way Haiti is run. Period like it or not.


Yup. Run the models on wealth creation and social stability. Corruption is the one factor that cannot be overcome (except by temporary one time events). The only way to have a decent society is without corruption.

By the way, I am really sorry for Haiti and don't want my comments to indicated any sort of 'they got what they deserved' emotion. I don't think that.
Quoting greentortuloni:


Yup. Run the models on wealth creation and social stability. Corruption is the one factor that cannot be overcome (except by temporary one time events). The only way to have a decent society is without corruption.

By the way, I am really sorry for Haiti and don't want my comments to indicated any sort of 'they got what they deserved' emotion. I don't think that.


until the rule of law is established in Haiti there will be very little lasting change...
27. DDR
1/2 inch of rain in Trinidad this morning as a moisture surge passes through.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Excellent. And I'd like to expound on your item #7: drive (in snow and any other conditions) defensively. That is, assume that every other person on the road is a first-time driver with an uncorrected vision impairment, an utter lack of spatial skills, non-existent hand/eye coordination, terrible reaction time, anger-management issues, a drinking problem, and a death wish, and that he or she is driving an old but overpowered vehicle with bald tires, weak brakes, no brake lights, broken turn signals, and missing mirrors, all while he or she is texting, talking on the phone, applying makeup, balancing a checkbook, updating his or her facebook status on a laptop, arguing with a spouse, trying to calm a crying infant, yelling at the kids in the back seat to stop fighting, following a GPS while looking at a map, and eating a cheeseburger while playing air guitar to the song blaring on the stereo. Oh, and late for work.

Assume that, and you'll be okay. ;-)

Have you driven in Houston lately? I have seen all of those on the freeways. In the last week.
12Z GFS is showing very stormy situation for FL starting late Sunday and turning to a severe wx situation Monday and Tuesday. Looks like severe wx season is getting going here in FL.

KABOOM!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh no....the great global superstorms! Nooooooo!!

lol. Once again...and I'll keep going back to it because it cracks me up. But I still won't ever forgot everyone fearing we're all heading into the next ice age in the wake of the cold winters of the 1970's and 1980's. Oh no!!!! But last time I checked (it was this morning but I should check again just in case), the glaciers have not taken over yet. It's this same knee-jerk reaction scientists are applying to global warming when the earth decides to go through YET ANOTHER temperature trend that those scientists can never fully understand.

By the way...weren't you the one that said our nice little streak of 7 category 5 hurricanes over the past eight years (2003-2010) were perhaps the result of the warming climate? Well last time I checked, the seven year span of 1955-1961 had a streak of 6 cat 5's. If anyone thought that streak was a result of a warming globe, I'm sure that argument went straight out the window when the seven year span of 1981-1987 saw 0 category 5 hurricanes. Answer: It might be called a trend.


1000



Unfortunately some people are too full of themselves to ever regard even simple wisdom these days, though.



we should all be here right now.....
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh no....the great global superstorms! Nooooooo!!

lol. Once again...and I'll keep going back to it because it cracks me up. But I still won't ever forgot everyone fearing we're all heading into the next ice age in the wake of the cold winters of the 1970's and 1980's....


*sigh*

It was the media, not scientists, who trumped up the "next ice age is coming" crap. No reputable climate scientists went on record saying that the the Earth was going into an ice age. It was media sensationalism and nothing more. It did sell a lot of papers and magazines though.

Scientists were far more concerned with warning about real threats like acid rain and ozone depletion, both of which were correct calls and despite clear evidence they had to fight tooth and nail before anything was done about them.

~X~
Quoting NRAamy:



we should all be here right now.....


LOL! Yeah I figure I would bring some hope of warmth to fellow bloggers.
Quoting kellnerp:
As a public service from a snow driver to those in the South who haven't had to deal with this much I offer the following:

1) Make sure you have decent tires on your car.
2) Learn how your car handles on ice and snow by going to an empty parking lot or other safe location and do some emergency maneuvers such as, panic stop, hard avoidance turns left and right and skid control. Do this till comfortable with the car pointing one way while traveling in another direction.
3) Increase following distance by a factor of two or three.
4) Learn to stop without using brakes. Let the engine slow you.
5) Get a good snow brush and keep your windows clear, all of them. If you can't see where you are going and what is ahead you shouldn't be moving.
6) Warm up before moving so your defroster works.
7) Beware of idiots and don't be one yourself. Stop signs don't work if the other guy can't stop.
8) Full throttle doesn't make your car move faster on ice. Idle or a little more does. Tire adhesion on ice is about 1/10th or less of that on dry pavement. On snow it is about 2 to 3 tenths. ABS sometimes makes stops longer than expected on ice.
9) Pedestrians like walking in the road in winter snow. But you don't get points for knocking them down, especially kids playing in snowbanks.


I want to accent the braking without brakes part. Your tires will lock up much more quickly on ice than normal. Driving in snow is similar to driving in deep sand. Once you are completely stopped, it's hard to get going again.
Quoting NRAamy:



we should all be here right now.....
Crab Island, Destin, FL?
Quoting Floodman:


It could certainly be due to Climate Change, Amy...

BTW

AMY!!!!!
Good morning Flood....Eastern Australia could use your services.....What a monster flood...
Zinger alert! "Unfortunately some people are too full of themselves to ever regard even simple wisdom these days, though."

Not the best zinger ever, clearly but still a zinger. Points on the board!

Wait! I just realized! Folksy, down home anti-intellectual zinger! ooh, double points!
okay, okay, I put myself on ignore again. Ciao a tutti.
Hey Flood, Welcome back to WU Land, haven't seen you on for a long time! Hope all is well is Texas.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Crab Island, Destin, FL?


Looks like Islamorada , just off from Holiday Isle to me, on the sandbar
Florida is the only state in the continental U.S. without snow on the ground.


Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


Looks like Islamorada , just off from Holiday Isle to me, on the sandbar
Either one, I'm in, I'll drive...
not sure where the photo is..... it's youngmoney's avatar.... just looked nice to me.....

:)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:


Looks like Islamorada , just off from Holiday Isle to me, on the sandbar


No it's the Cayman's.
Quoting jwh250:
Florida is the only state in the continental U.S. without snow on the ground.




hello from florida
Either one, I'm in, I'll drive...


will you come pick me up in Southern Calif?
Quoting NRAamy:
Either one, I'm in, I'll drive...


will you come pick me up in Southern Calif?
I'm on the way...
Quoting greentortuloni:
Zinger alert! "Unfortunately some people are too full of themselves to ever regard even simple wisdom these days, though."

Not the best zinger ever, clearly but still a zinger. Points on the board!

Wait! I just realized! Folksy, down home anti-intellectual zinger! ooh, double points!


Or maybe intellectuals need to stop being so full of themselves...


That is what I love about my calculus professor, hes extremely knowledgeable about math, but hes very down to earth. He doesn't have an ego to the moon, neither does he try to prove an agenda in class.

Thank God, not all professors and scientific or intellectual people have massive egos and manipulate and lie in an attempt to get everyone else to believe their B.S.

So no, I am not anti science, or anti-intellectual. I am just against the selfish, egotistic intellectuals who think they know way more than they really do just because they have a gift that most people don't have.

I am in the process of becoming a meteorologist myself. I love science. So please, stop your judgments.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Or maybe intellectuals need to stop being so full of themselves...


That is what I love about my calculus professor, hes extremely knowledgeable about math, but hes very down to earth. He doesn't have an ego to the moon, neither does he try to prove an agenda in class.

Thank God, not all professors and scientific or intellectual people have massive egos and manipulate and lie in an attempt to get everyone else to believe their B.S.

So no, I am not anti science, or anti-intellectual. I am just against the selfish, egotistic intellectuals who think they know way more than they really do just because they have a gift that most people don't have.

I am in the process of becoming a meteorologist myself. I love science. So please, stop your judgments.


Hi Jedkins, it's Jeff by the way. How have you been and did you get some heavy storms Monday as I saw very vivid Lightning and heavy rain Monday afternoon with a forecast for just showers?
Quoting NRAamy:



we should all be here right now.....



I don't know, I like the cold weather we've had the last couple winters in Florida. I don't bitter cold northern winters with mountains of snow and ice. However, I get sick of winters where its still in the 70's and 80's

Personally I am not a attracted to the same old beach weather all year long. Its funny how my neighbors tell me how great Aruba is compared to Florida. They love it because its high in the upper 80's all year long and lows in the 70's. Also they love it cause it never rains.

Why the heck would anyone want the same old boring day where its 88 and clear skies.

I love the sun, but if that's all there is days on end, that's just boring. What I love about Florida summer is a the plentiful thunderstorm activity to make the weather more enjoyable.

What we usually lack though is change in season. I don't like the bitter cold north, I am glad to live in Florida most of the time. But a change in seasons is always more enjoyable then the same temperatures year round. I'm glad we are starting to see more of a change in season here in Central Florida in recent years!
Quoting youngmoney:


Hi Jedkins, it's Jeff by the way. How have you been and did you get some heavy storms Monday as I saw very vivid Lightning and heavy rain Monday afternoon with a forecast for just showers?


hey man, yeah it was funny to see that kind of thunderstorm activity when it just wasn't even mentioned in the forecast. I didn't see it coming either. Just like the last low pressure system brought way more rain and strong thunderstorm activity than it was forecasted to.


Honestly I think it was from having such a dry fall, and the fact that every system the forecasted to bring rain never did. Well now that they went more conservative, we are heading deeper into the winter with a new pattern chance in rainfall coverage. So now they have been too conservative. It seems like we are always playing catchup in the weather world!
Whoa. Kewl roof glacier pic!
Ok, I understand we have our own tragedy here in the USA to morn about but people PLEASE let's not forget what happened a year ago TODAY in Haiti. Thousands of people died from that earthquake compared to 6 people on Saturday. Please take this time to stop and remember the lives that were lost in that country. We will never forget our brothers and sisters in Haiti.
jed..... I swear, you consistenly make more sense that most of the "adults" on here.... it's young men like you that give me hope for our future..... I always look forward to your posts.... take care.....
And what is wrong with this weather observation below?? Notice the barometric pressure & temp at the 11:53 AM CST observation:

Dallas / Fort Worth International Airport
Lat: 32.91 Lon: -97.03 Elev: 560
Last Update on Jan 12, 11:53 am CST

Overcast

31 F
(-1 C)
Humidity: 43 %
Wind Speed: NE 6 MPH
Barometer: 30.78" (1042.7 mb)
Dewpoint: 11 F (-12 C)
Wind Chill: 25 F (-4 C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
Quoting youngmoney:
12Z GFS is showing very stormy situation for FL starting late Sunday and turning to a severe wx situation Monday and Tuesday. Looks like severe wx season is getting going here in FL.

KABOOM!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml


Thought Severe wx season was during the time when we get day time thunderstorms? Tell you what-- those can be some intense thunderstorms in my area.
This global warming is going to kill us with cold. Currently FL is the only state in the country without fresh snow. Even Hawaii has snow in the mountains.
Please,Please don't point to GW for this storm we have up here.This is nothing to do with GW,I've lived in Massachusetts all my life,this is what we get in the winter,this is why we have snowshovels and snowblowers,and snowplows.Anyway,I have 16.5 inches of GW at my home just 10 miles west of Boston.
I'd have to say that temperatures around SE Michigan have been above average for most of the winter, snow wasn't that bad either up till today. The current cold conditions probably won't be occurring too often after this winter, so enjoy it while it's still around.
Quoting DDR:
1/2 inch of rain in Trinidad this morning as a moisture surge passes through.


Reports of rain are not accepted unless they can be tied to a warming climate.

Sorry.
Manila, Jan 12 (IANS) At least 40 people have been killed and over one million displaced in flash floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains in central and southern Philippines, officials said Wednesday.

Nearly 1 million people affected in Sri Lanka floods
What is worse is that the livelihood of the victims is likely to be affected with more than one third of the country's paddy productions coming from the flooded districts.

About 40000 acres of paddy cultivation has already been damaged.


Sao Paulo

More than 30,000 people have been forced to abandon their homes and find refuge with relatives or in state-run shelters.

The rainfall recorded so far this month accounted for nearly the total average precipitation for all of January.


RIO DE JANEIRO, Jan 12 (Reuters) - At least 61 people were killed when heavy rains triggered landslides and destroyed buildings in towns in a mountainous area near the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro, officials said on Wednesday.

South-western Holland and most parts of Belgium have been the worst hit by the torrential rain and floods, combined with melting water coming down from higher areas. After around 10cm of rain fell over the weekend (some areas recorded almost 15cm of rain in 12 hours), cities like Bouillon flood.

Torrential rain in Sri Lanka, 16 dead and 832 thousand displaced
Torrential rains continued to lash Batticaloa District for the last few days with the area receiving 85.6 mm of rain during the 24 hours ending 8.30 am yesterday.

The previous day, there was 317 mm of rain which was the highest rainfall recorded for a day for the last 100 years, said a spokesman for the Batticaloa District Meteorological Department Office.


Links Here
Quoting jwh250:
Florida is the only state in the continental U.S. without snow on the ground.




Wow. Kinda looks like the extent of the glaciers during the last Ice age.

That's ok, though. Because of the warming climate, it'll all be gone next week...
I got a whopping 4" of snow out of this storm. Again another Quote"big snowstorm" that only hit the coast and not far enough inland to say so. I live 30 miles southeast of syracuse and this year has been very weird for snow. Most of our snow has been lake effect snow which sucks for riding snowmobiles on. When are we going to get a measurable snowstorm to actually hit further inland then that last two storms. Boston and nycity i feel bad for ya.
Visibility near zero in northern VT. I just drove to work in Burlington and it was the hardest snow I've seen in years. They blew the forecast up here on this one. 8 inches in 4 hours in Jeffersonville and still snowing hard.


AT 1215 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING FROM
NEWPORT TO BELVIDERE JUNCTION...THROUGH ESSEX CENTER AND DOWN TO
SHELBURNE. THIS LINE IS MOVING NORTHWEST...AND WILL AFFECT
BAKERSFIELD AND FAIRFAX...MILTON AND BURLINGTON...COLCHESTER AND
ENOSBURG. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ALMOST ZERO MILES.
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CREATING
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 2 PM. DRIVERS SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW.

I was being facetious.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Please,Please don't point to GW for this storm we have up here.This is nothing to do with GW,I've lived in Massachusetts all my life,this is what we get in the winter,this is why we have snowshovels and snowblowers,and snowplows.Anyway,I have 16.5 inches of GW at my home just 10 miles west of Boston.


Indeed, it is still snowing in Canada even though many areas have been as much as 14-15°C (yes, Celsius) above average for the past month (it also coincides nicely with the cold in the U.S.):



Talk about an "upside-down" winter (not really, because it is still too cold for rain up there, well, usually).
I expect that things won't really change until these areas freeze up - if they ever do, that is, before the spring thaw begins:



Quoting youngmoney:


No it's the Cayman's.
Hi youngmoney. SMB ?
70. Inyo
Quoting snowinvermont:
Visibility near zero in northern VT. I just drove to work in Burlington and it was the hardest snow I've seen in years. They blew the forecast up here on this one. 8 inches in 4 hours in Jeffersonville and still snowing hard.


AT 1215 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW STRETCHING FROM
NEWPORT TO BELVIDERE JUNCTION...THROUGH ESSEX CENTER AND DOWN TO
SHELBURNE. THIS LINE IS MOVING NORTHWEST...AND WILL AFFECT
BAKERSFIELD AND FAIRFAX...MILTON AND BURLINGTON...COLCHESTER AND
ENOSBURG. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED TO ALMOST ZERO MILES.
SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THIS BAND WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 1 TO 2
INCHES AN HOUR...GREATLY REDUCING VISIBILITY AND CREATING
DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS THROUGH 2 PM. DRIVERS SHOULD EXERCISE
EXTREME CAUTION AND BE PREPARED FOR VERY HEAVY SNOW.



Wow. I am out of town but I live in Burlington. When I return on Friday it's going to be really snowy!
"I've lived here 25 years and I've never seen anything like it," Teresopolis citizen Manoel Rocha Sobrinho told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper. "I live on high ground and when I looked below, I only saw a sea of mud. Most people saved themselves by climbing trees."

Torrential rain, mudslides in Brazil kill 99
---------
The VOA is reporting that this event rained a month's worth of rain in 24 hours.
Also Russia having temps of -50 to -60 and people say the Globe is Warming well tell that to those in Alaska & Russia who have had a brutal winter already.
Fairbanks Weather

Partly Cloudy
-15°F
Quoting youngmoney:
Also Russia having temps of -50 to -60 and people say the Globe is Warming well tell that to those in Alaska & Russia who have had a brutal winter already.


Global warming doesn't only mean warming.
Now that is coolllldddddd!!!
some rain is needed ecent florida
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
3:00 AM WST January 13 2011
========================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (986 hPa) located at 15.3S 109.1E, or 910 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.6S 110.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.2S 113.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.3S 115.0E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 18.3S 112.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

The system remains under decent shear of around 20 knots which is expected to decrease due to a retrogressing upper trough with conditions becoming more favorable for development over the next 48 hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern. The separation between the LLCC and the CDO has varied over the past 24 hours giving DT of 2.0 to 3.0 though overnight the separation steadied at around 0.5 degrees for a period before the cold overcast became more removed from the LLCC in the last few hours. FT is 2.5 and CI has been held half a T number higher at 3.0. Latest ASCAT pass shows marginal gales around the system.

TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast before it recurves westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours]. There is some divergence between the models on how fast the system will move while on the east southeastwards track, however all models now agree on no coastal impact to the Pilbara, with the system recurving well off the coast. Assuming a decrease in shear, the system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological rate until it begins its westwards movement. After this, shear and SST's become less favorable and the system should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Quoting islander101010:
some rain is needed ecent florida


It's coming brother come Sunday thru Tuesday I bet many in E C FL get a good solid 2" to 4" of rain and that maybe conservative depending if we can get some training of storms which could be a problem on Monday for C & N FL. THe GFS and EURO are getting wetter each run for FL.
78. youngmoney 11:36 AM PST on January 12, 2011

I see the Queens of the blog aren't on today!


dare I ask..... who are the Queens?
Quoting lickitysplit:
Its not "Global Warming". Its "Climate Change". And its smacking us in the face now.

How stupid can you be?


Climate Change has been occurring since the planet was born.
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:


Global warming doesn't only mean warming.


OK, it means any weather, right?

A hypothesis that is supported by any and all observations is a pointless one.
Quoting mikester:
I got a whopping 4" of snow out of this storm. Again another Quote"big snowstorm" that only hit the coast and not far enough inland to say so. I live 30 miles southeast of syracuse and this year has been very weird for snow. Most of our snow has been lake effect snow which sucks for riding snowmobiles on. When are we going to get a measurable snowstorm to actually hit further inland then that last two storms. Boston and nycity i feel bad for ya.
Now you know how I feel.
I don't believe in "Global Warming" I just think the Earth is aging and has issues through it's aging process. I don't believe man is destroying the climate, that's bs in my opinion. Some of the bloggers are trying to push something that Al Gore has created.
Quoting youngmoney:


Not as "stupid" as the one in your avatar! LOL
You see every time when you don't agree with that global warming or climate change stuff,and go against it theirs always someone that's busting your chops for it.SMH.If someone doesn't belive in global warming/climate change stuff then let them hold on to their beliefs.
Quoting Seastep:


Climate Change has been occurring since the planet was born.


Sure, but we know what is causing the current climate change, as evidenced by observations of what happened in the past and the current factors that are changing right now.

Also, this isn't the first time a living organism radically changed the climate:

The Great Oxygenation Event (GOE), also called the oxygen catastrophe or oxygen crisis or Great Oxidation, was the appearance of free oxygen (O2) in Earth's atmosphere. This major environmental change happened around 2.4 billion years ago.

Photosynthesis was producing oxygen both before and after the GOE. The difference was that before the GOE, organic matter and dissolved iron chemically captured any free oxygen. The GOE was the point when these minerals became saturated and could not capture any more oxygen. The excess free oxygen started to accumulate in the atmosphere.

The rising oxygen levels may have wiped out a huge portion of the Earth's anaerobic inhabitants at the time. From their perspective it was a catastrophe (hence the name). Cyanobacteria were essentially responsible for what was likely the largest extinction event in Earth's history. Additionally the free oxygen combined with atmospheric methane, triggering the Huronian glaciation, possibly the longest snowball Earth episode ever.


Mere BACTERIA were able to do that!

Also:

The Azolla event occurred in the middle Eocene period,[1] around 49 million years ago, when blooms of the freshwater fern Azolla are thought to have happened in the Arctic Ocean. As they sank to the stagnant sea floor, they were incorporated into the sediment; the resulting draw down of carbon dioxide has been speculated to have helped transform the planet from a "greenhouse Earth" state, hot enough for turtles and palm trees to prosper at the poles, to the icehouse Earth it has been since.


What we are doing now is just the opposite of what happened during those events. As happened before as well:

Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum

Global temperatures rose by about 6°C (11°F) at the start of the PETM, which appears to have occurred within 20,000 years. At nearly the same time, many deep-sea benthic foraminifera went extinct, and mammalian life on land experienced a major turnover, which marks the emergence of numerous modern mammalian orders. The event is linked to a prominent negative excursion in carbon stable isotope (δ13C) records from across the globe, and dissolution of carbonate deposited on the seafloor of all ocean basins. The latter observations strongly suggest that a massive input of 13C-depleted carbon entered the ocean or atmosphere at the start of the PETM. The event has become a focal point of geoscience investigations because it is perhaps the best past analog in which to understand the fate and consequences of current fossil fuel emissions on an intermediate time-scale (>1000 years).


Just because none of these events were caused by humans doesn't mean that humans could do the same.
Quoting reedzone:
I don't believe in "Global Warming" I just think the Earth is aging and has issues through it's aging process. I don't believe man is destroying the climate, that's bs in my opinion. Some of the bloggers are trying to push something that Al Gore has created.
The earth goes through a cycle.It just so happens we're in a warming cycle is all.I don't think global warming/climate change is man made like some people have been trying to push.
Quoting youngmoney:


It's coming brother come Sunday thru Tuesday I bet many in E C FL get a good solid 2" to 4" of rain and that maybe conservative depending if we can get some training of storms which could be a problem on Monday for C & N FL. THe GFS and EURO are getting wetter each run for FL.
Weren't you just banned? And wrong? Again.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The earth goes through a cycle.It just so happens we're in a warming cycle is all.I don't think global warming/climate change is man made like some people have been trying to push.


Agreed, it's just a cycle. Some people just love to drive too much into the scientific things of nature. Like forecasting a Hurricane, they'll say "it's going to hit here or there" yet Mother Nature proves us wrong and the Hurricane hits a few hundred miles south of north of that area.
Quoting reedzone:
I don't believe in "Global Warming" I just think the Earth is aging and has issues through it's aging process. I don't believe man is destroying the climate, that's bs in my opinion. Some of the bloggers are trying to push something that Al Gore has created.


LOL!!!!!

Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. (born March 31, 1948) served as the 45th Vice President of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election.


Svante Arrhenius

Arrhenius developed a theory to explain the ice ages, and in 1896 he was the first scientist to speculate that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.[3] He was influenced by the work of others, including Joseph Fourier. Arrhenius used the infrared observations of the moon by Frank Washington Very and Samuel Pierpont Langley at the Allegheny Observatory in Pittsburgh to calculate the absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric CO2 and water vapour. Using 'Stefan's law' (better known as the Stefan Boltzmann law), he formulated his greenhouse law. In its original form, Arrhenius' greenhouse law reads as follows:

if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression.

This simplified expression is still used today:

ΔF = α ln(C/C0)



Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (21 March 1768 – 16 May 1830) was a French mathematician and physicist best known for initiating the investigation of Fourier series and their applications to problems of heat transfer and vibrations. The Fourier transform and Fourier's Law are also named in his honour. Fourier is also generally credited with the discovery of the greenhouse effect.[1]


Perhaps you should do some research before posting nonsense.
Quoting NRAamy:
78. youngmoney 11:36 AM PST on January 12, 2011

I see the Queens of the blog aren't on today!


dare I ask..... who are the Queens?
Report him, he is circumventing a ban for listing naked pictures.
Quoting washingtonian115:
The earth goes through a cycle.It just so happens we're in a warming cycle is all.I don't think global warming/climate change is man made like some people have been trying to push.


Cycle? What cycle? Please post some proof of your "magical cycle" One that is backed up by hard evidence. And explain how the laws of physics have changed since the events I posted in comment 89.
Don't cyclones move East to West down under?

Quoting islander101010:
some rain is needed ecent florida


Florida was abused by the rainy season during the last summer. I could have counted on my fingers how many thunderstorms we got in my area last year (one however produced a tornado 10 minutes to my south in June) I hope we get some rain quick before either sinkholes pop up again or worse!
Related to events down under? PDF file made accessable without cost today.

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/r-357.pdf
Areas north of Tampa are going to be in the mid to lower 20's tonight yet again.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOL!!!!!

Albert Arnold "Al" Gore, Jr. (born March 31, 1948) served as the 45th Vice President of the United States from 1993 to 2001 under President Bill Clinton. He was the Democratic Party nominee for President in the 2000 U.S. presidential election.


Svante Arrhenius

Arrhenius developed a theory to explain the ice ages, and in 1896 he was the first scientist to speculate that changes in the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could substantially alter the surface temperature through the greenhouse effect.[3] He was influenced by the work of others, including Joseph Fourier. Arrhenius used the infrared observations of the moon by Frank Washington Very and Samuel Pierpont Langley at the Allegheny Observatory in Pittsburgh to calculate the absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric CO2 and water vapour. Using 'Stefan's law' (better known as the Stefan Boltzmann law), he formulated his greenhouse law. In its original form, Arrhenius' greenhouse law reads as follows:

if the quantity of carbonic acid increases in geometric progression, the augmentation of the temperature will increase nearly in arithmetic progression.

This simplified expression is still used today:

ΔF = α ln(C/C0)



Jean Baptiste Joseph Fourier (21 March 1768 – 16 May 1830) was a French mathematician and physicist best known for initiating the investigation of Fourier series and their applications to problems of heat transfer and vibrations. The Fourier transform and Fourier's Law are also named in his honour. Fourier is also generally credited with the discovery of the greenhouse effect.[1]


Perhaps you should do some research before posting nonsense.


You're being very rude.. I'm amazed at how some people looked up to you in the past on here. We can't have our own opinions heard on here? Are you scottsvb? You sure sound a heck like him. I was just expressing my opinion on "Climate Change". Funny thing is, it's not even on topic. Ignore me Michael cause you ain't changing my opinion ;)
Quoting reedzone:


You're being very rude.. I'm amazed at how some people looked up to you in the past on here. We can't have our own opinions heard on here? Are you scottsvb? You sure sound a heck like him. I was just expressing my opinion on "Climate Change". Funny thing is, it's not even on topic. Ignore me Michael cause you ain't changing my opinion ;)


Opinions don't matter, actual facts do! And if people don't want to hear any talk of climate change, then don't talk about it!

Also, LOL @ the implication that I am somebody else!

Member Since: February 21, 2006 Posts: 84 Comments: 31877
Quoting youngmoney:


Go gettem REED! How are you doing SIR?


Got a few days off from work.. My friend up in NY reported about a foot of snow in Center Moriches. My brother was snowed in, so he had to take off of work. Certainly not as bad as the Post-Christmas Day Superstorm of 2010
Quoting reedzone:


Got a few days off from work.. My friend up in NY reported about a foot of snow in Center Moriches. My brother was snowed in, so he had to take off of work. Certainly not as bad as the Post-Christmas Day Superstorm of 2010


Good to hear from you!
Dr. Masters certainly would approve of me, and he doesn't have to put up with it either:

Yale profile of Wunderground.com’s Jeff Masters: “The ignorance and greed that human society is showing [on climate change] will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction.”

Masters says he believes that the conclusions of the IPCC report are “genuine, valid, and probably understated.” And he is critical of what he sees as well orchestrated and well funded climate misinformation campaigns.

“They’re able to persuade even intelligent people with a background in meteorology” that climate change isn’t occurring, he said. “It’s going to be a terrible wake-up call when the climate becomes unstable, and we’ll kick ourselves for being resistant to cutting our use of fossil fuels.”

He’s shared these views in his blogs, not surprisingly leading to hundreds of “hate e-mails” a year. Critics call him biased and chastise him for defending scientists named or involved in last fall’s hacked e-mails controversy at the University of East Anglia in the U.K. While he respects the right of these people to voice their point of view, he doesn’t pull punches: “The ignorance and greed that human society is showing in this matter will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction,” he says.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Cycle? What cycle? Please post some proof of your "magical cycle" One that is backed up by hard evidence. And explain how the laws of physics have changed since the events I posted in comment 89.
Why the hell are you being rude?.Their is proof that the earth has been through warm,and cold patterns.Their was a research some years ago down in antartica.And in the Ice it showed that their were cycles in the earth's climate.Warm,and cold cycles.You know antartica use to be a tropical place,but now it's nothing but a continent of ice,oh gee I wonder why?.Becuase of warm,and cold ptterns.Now cal yourself down!!.You see thats why I don't like talking about global warming on this blog becuase of petty arguments.Now I see why some people avoid even bringing it up.Rolls eyes...
As the winter has been unfolding there are some signs emerging about the 2011 hurricane season.


PDO is down to -1.21 in December.
Link

SST anomalies in 2011


2010



The true signs of the hurricane season in 2011 will be truthfully determined in March when the winter is just about wrapped up. What I believe is going to happen is your going to see more warm anomalies appear, and La Nina will gradually weaken to a weak La Nina by the time Hurricane season begins, followed by a neutral pattern similar to that of 2008 in the fall time period. This leads me to believe also that 2011 could be as active as 2010, maybe 1 or 2 storm less. I will not speculate on possible effects to the USA this season, I have no idea what mother nature has in store for us. 2010 was proof that an active season doesn't mean US landfalls, but to be honest, our streak without major hurricanes hitting the USA is going to end eventually. It doesn't even have to be a major to be considered a bad storm either. Erin, Gustav, and the most obvious, Ike are proof of that. Better to be prepared than to sit around.
Just over a year ago (I think):
"King Penguin
There are currently 2 million pairs of breeding King Penguins on the islands north of Antarctica. Research suggests that the population is declining as sea temperatures warm and the birds are forced to travel longer distances to find food."

http://www.time.com/time/photogallery/0,29307,1938690_1988649,00.html#ixzz1AqyIDfqr

Wow, already indicating climate change in Antarctica? Something needs to be done, and soon.

Today:
"In an article already creating controversy in animal conservation circles, a French team of marine biologists says that putting flipper bands on king penguins impairs their survival and ability to reproduce and should be ended, based on a 10-year study on Indian Ocean islands north of Antarctica.

Because of this, they say, studies that use the penguins as an indicator of climate change need to be seriously reconsidered as it might be the bands, not the climate, that is contributing to penguin population declines."

http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/environment/2011-01-12-banded-penguins_N.htm

Umm, oops (maybe, maybe not; see article). I guess the simpleton's usual response to why something changes of just latching onto the agenda and casting aside the notion that other factors need to be considered has finally been exposed for what it is? Finally?

Ehh, I can dream, right?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As the winter has been unfolding there are some signs emerging about the 2011 hurricane season.


PDO is down to -1.21 in December.
Link

SST anomalies in 2011


2010



The true signs of the hurricane season in 2011 will be truthfully determined in March when the winter is just about wrapped up. What I believe is going to happen is your going to see more warm anomalies appear, and La Nina will gradually weaken to a weak La Nina by the time Hurricane season begins, followed by a neutral pattern similar to that of 2008 in the fall time period. This leads me to believe also that 2011 could be as active as 2010, maybe 1 or 2 storm less. I will not speculate on possible effects to the USA this season, I have no idea what mother nature has in store for us. 2010 was proof that an active season doesn't mean US landfalls, but to be honest, our streak without major hurricanes hitting the USA is going to end eventually. It doesn't even have to be a major to be considered a bad storm either. Erin, Gustav, and the most obvious, Ike are proof of that. Better to be prepared than to sit around.
Oh I almost forgot about hurricane season due to this cold weather.Now I'm going to stay on this topic since hurricanes are my expertise.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Dr. Masters certainly would approve of me, and he doesn't have to put up with it either:
Maybe he approves of you and doesn't have to put up with you. He's complex enough to do both, I'm sure.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As the winter has been unfolding there are some signs emerging about the 2011 hurricane season.


PDO is down to -1.21 in December.
Link

SST anomalies in 2011


2010



The true signs of the hurricane season in 2011 will be truthfully determined in March when the winter is just about wrapped up. What I believe is going to happen is your going to see more warm anomalies appear, and La Nina will gradually weaken to a weak La Nina by the time Hurricane season begins, followed by a neutral pattern similar to that of 2008 in the fall time period. This leads me to believe also that 2011 could be as active as 2010, maybe 1 or 2 storm less. I will not speculate on possible effects to the USA this season, I have no idea what mother nature has in store for us. 2010 was proof that an active season doesn't mean US landfalls, but to be honest, our streak without major hurricanes hitting the USA is going to end eventually. It doesn't even have to be a major to be considered a bad storm either. Erin, Gustav, and the most obvious, Ike are proof of that. Better to be prepared than to sit around.


NOT GOOD! Very Ominous to see that.
114. Jax82
The Earth = 4,540,000,000 +/- years old

Accurate record keeping = 100 +/- years old

There is a lot of stuff on here that is really disturbing. I really cannot support people with religious beliefs who stand by and watch other humans in a coming tragedy and yet do nothing because of their oh so self righteous belief.



Quoting Jax82:
The Earth = 4,540,000,000 +/- years old

Accurate record keeping = 100 +/- years old

Exsacally.And then they say the proof is in the satelites.But remember satelites have been around for not even 50 years almost.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maybe he approves of you and doesn't have to put up with you. He's complex enough to do both, I'm sure.


LOL! Buddy it is cold we are struggling just to hit 50 here north of Orlando!
Quoting greentortuloni:
There is a lot of stuff on here that is really disturbing. I really cannot support people with religious beliefs who stand by and watch other humans in a coming tragedy and yet do nothing because of their oh so self righteous belief.





Our job as Christians is to save the unsaved so that they may not see the wrath of God. We don't just sit around with pride. Well most "proclaimed Christians" do but it is the true Christians that get the job done.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh I almost forgot about hurricane season due to this cold weather.Now I'm going to stay on this topic since hurricanes are my expertise.


Well its 138 days away at last count, I wouldn't be too interested in it until April when CSU puts out its predictions again based on the post-winter setup.
Quoting reedzone:


Our job as Christians is to save the unsaved so that they may not see the wrath of God. We don't just sit around with pride. Well most "proclaimed Christians" do but it is the true Christians that get the job done.


I've heard your comment on here and I realize you are young and idealistic. On the other hand, I've seen a lot of the world and the damage that religion does. Very few people I have met who profess to believe in God really do. The very people I have met who do love God never seemed to talk about it. Of course there may be many I met who believed and also just kept it inside. However, this belief you have.. I don't know if what you worship is what you think it is but I judge you by how you prefer your belief over the welbeing of fellow humans. I hereby pledge my immortal soul to the opposite of everything you stand for.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well its 138 days away at last count, I wouldn't be too interested in it until April when CSU puts out its predictions again based on the post-winter setup.


The other models show El-Nino come August or Sept. THe CFS is the only one showing this. Also I read the the MJO is moving toward the C Pacific and if that happens then warming could quickly occur in the C Pacific over the next few months. Lots of variables on the table right now so we will see what happens.
Quoting reedzone:


Our job as Christians is to save the unsaved so that they may not see the wrath of God. We don't just sit around with pride. Well most "proclaimed Christians" do but it is the true Christians that get the job done.
This is another topic that some bloggers don't like hearing for some odd reason.Just like they don't like hearing people say they don't belive in.... never mind.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
SST anomalies in 2011


Those aren't actually SST anomaly maps (the first two) - they show sea level anomalies. Here are the actual SST anomalies for the same (or close to) dates:





It is actually warmer than last year in the tropical Atlantic, especially off Africa.
Quoting greentortuloni:
There is a lot of stuff on here that is really disturbing. I really cannot support people with religious beliefs who stand by and watch other humans in a coming tragedy and yet do nothing because of their oh so self righteous belief.





There is a lot of stuff on here that is really disturbing all right. And a lot of it has to do with the anti-social comments and general lack of respect for other peoples opinion. Come on folks, sometimes you sound like the nut cake in Tucson.
Quoting reedzone:


Our job as Christians is to save the unsaved so that they may not see the wrath of God. We don't just sit around with pride. Well most "proclaimed Christians" do but it is the true Christians that get the job done.


Indeed, like this:

A physicist by training, John Cook is an evangelical Christian who runs the website skepticalscience.com, which seeks to debunk climate change deniers’ arguments.
Quoting youngmoney:


The other models show El-Nino come August or Sept. THe CFS is the only one showing this. Also I read the the MJO is moving toward the C Pacific and if that happens then warming could quickly occur in the C Pacific over the next few months. Lots of variables on the table right now so we will see what happens.


I think the CFS is wrong. The PDO has never been this far deep into the negative range with that kind of come back with the El Nino.
Quoting greentortuloni:


I've heard your comment on here and I realize you are young and idealistic. On the other hand, I've seen a lot of the world and the damage that religion does. Very few people I have met who profess to believe in God really do. The very people I have met who do love God never seemed to talk about it. Of course there may be many I met who believed and also just kept it inside. However, this belief you have.. I don't know if what you worship is what you think it is but I judge you by how you prefer your belief over the welbeing of fellow humans. I hereby pledge my immortal soul to the opposite of everything you stand for.


I will pray for you as I see you may need it!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Those aren't actually SST anomaly maps (the first two) - they show sea level anomalies. Here are the actual SST anomalies for the same (or close to) dates:





It is actually warmer than last year in the tropical Atlantic, especially off Africa.


Gah! I knew something wasn't right. My mistake. Interesting to note that the yellow extends well more west than in 2010 -- and the Caribbean too.
Quoting reedzone:


It's called a left blog ;)


LOL!
That 'roof glacier' picture is awesome!

Heaviest snow on record in Hartford, CT. Very cool.

000
SXUS71 KBOX 122016 AAA
RERBDL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

...GREATEST SNOWSTORM AND DAILY SNOWFALL TOTAL ON RECORD IN THE
GREATER HARTFORD AREA JANUARY 12 2011...

NEW SNOWFALL THROUGH 1 PM AT BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN
WINDSOR LOCKS CT TOTALED 22.5 INCHES. THIS BEATS THE GREATEST SNOW
STORM TOTAL 21.9 INCHES WHICH OCCURRED FEBRUARY 12 2006. THIS ALSO
BEATS THE GREATEST DAILY SNOW TOTAL 21.9 INCHES FEBRUARY 12 2006.
I think that 2011 will be almost just as active as 2010.It will probally get off to a more earlier start though.
I predict that we have a more intense landfalling tropical system in the USA in 2011 compared to 2010. That is all.
Quoting youngmoney:


I will pray for you as I see you may need it!


I could probably use a little prayin' and GoodBook thumpin', too...
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
I'll predict that we have a more intense landfalling tropical system in the USA in 2011 compared to 2010. That is all.
I think so as well.But it's to early to speculate.
Quoting Ossqss:
Related to events down under? PDF file made accessable without cost today.

http://pielkeclimatesci.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/r-357.pdf

Very interesting paper; thanks for posting the link. It postulates that 13 million hectares of SW Australia--50,193 square miles, an area slightly larger than the state of New York--has been stripped of native vegetation over the past few decades and replaced by non-native, rain-fed species; this change in vegetation is responsible for altering the west coast trough, a large feature that drives convection and precipitation. This, in turn, is leading to drought.

Proof again, reasonable people will agree, that, regardless of what some choose to believe, man's carelessness is completely capable of changing in negative ways both the atmosphere and the earth below it.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think that 2011 will be almost just as active as 2010.It will probally get off to a more earlier start though.

I think we will have an earlier start as well with more intense landfalls. The only wildcard is if El-Nino makes an appearence toward summer's end.
Quoting aquak9:


I could probably use a little prayin' and GoodBook thumpin', too...


Everything Ok?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I think the CFS is wrong. The PDO has never been this far deep into the negative range with that kind of come back with the El Nino.


The PDO index for April 2009 was -1.65, yet El Nino started developing a month later (actually, signs of one were already occurring in the subsurface). The PDO also lagged ENSO that time, not becoming positive until after El Nino developed (some think that the PDO simply integrates the effects of ENSO on the North Pacific and its variation simply reflects ENSO variability).

For example, in this paper:

ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The PDO is dependent upon ENSO on all timescales. To first order, the PDO can be considered the reddened response to both atmospheric noise and ENSO, resulting in more decadal variability than either. This null hypothesis needs to be considered when diagnosing and modeling ‘‘internal’’ decadal variability in the North Pacific. For example, the observed spatial pattern of Pacific SST decadal variability, with relatively higher amplitude in the extratropics than in the Tropics, should be at least partly a consequence of a reddened ENSO response.

It has been suggested that decadal variability in the North Pacific may be more prominent during summer than during winter (e.g., Zhang et al. 1998). Our results suggest just the opposite: the PDO has little multiyear persistence during summer, so decadal variability of North Pacific SST is largely a winter/spring phenomenon.


Note also that the decadal PDO variation is mainly expressed in the winter and spring.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I think so as well.But it's to early to speculate.


Don't worry about that. Most of what's on this blog is speculation.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Very interesting paper; thanks for posting the link. It postulates that 13 million hectares of SW Australia--50,193 square miles, an area slightly larger than the state of New York--has been stripped of native vegetation over the past few decades and replaced by non-native, rain-fed species; this change in vegetation is responsible for altering the west coast trough--a large features that drives convection and precipitation--causing drought.

Proof again, reasonable people will agree, that, regardless of what some choose to believe, man's carelessness is completely capable of changing in negative ways both the atmosphere and the earth below it.
All ~3% of the earth we occupy? Of course.

Does the paper say how the landuse changes affected the nearby surface observation station? (Assuming there is one).
Quoting youngmoney:


Everything Ok?


nuthin' a little holy water can't cure
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The PDO index for April 2009 was -1.65, yet El Nino started developing a month later (actually, signs of one were already occurring in the subsurface). The PDO also lagged ENSO that time, not becoming positive until after El Nino developed (some think that the PDO simply integrates the effects of ENSO on the North Pacific and its variation simply reflects ENSO variability).

For example, in this paper:

ENSO-Forced Variability of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The PDO is dependent upon ENSO on all timescales. To first order, the PDO can be considered the reddened response to both atmospheric noise and ENSO, resulting in more decadal variability than either. This null hypothesis needs to be considered when diagnosing and modeling ‘‘internal’’ decadal variability in the North Pacific. For example, the observed spatial pattern of Pacific SST decadal variability, with relatively higher amplitude in the extratropics than in the Tropics, should be at least partly a consequence of a reddened ENSO response.

It has been suggested that decadal variability in the North Pacific may be more prominent during summer than during winter (e.g., Zhang et al. 1998). Our results suggest just the opposite: the PDO has little multiyear persistence during summer, so decadal variability of North Pacific SST is largely a winter/spring phenomenon.


Note also that the decadal PDO variation is mainly expressed in the winter and spring.


Are those same signs present in the current?
Quoting aquak9:


nuthin' a little holy water can't cure

I like my holy water about 80 proof. That'll cure about any ailment I might have...
That said, the only possible indicator of an El Nino is the buildup of heat in the western Pacific region:



We'll have to have the right weather patterns during the spring transition period to get an El Nino, a opposed to a return to neutral/weak La Nina conditions, as in 2008.

Also of interest, during the last negative PDO phase, before 1977, El Ninos often immediately followed La Ninas in the same year (in 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, and 1976, according to the ONI). No such cases - not even one - occurred during the positive PDO phase, perhaps because ENSO spent more time in La Nina as opposed to neutral. Recently, while not quite officially La Nina episodes (because of the duration criteria), El Ninos followed La Nina conditions in 2006 and 2009.

Mauna Kea photo courtesy Adrel Vicente

Snow in 49 states including Hawaii
Quoting reedzone:
Some of the bloggers are trying to push something that Al Gore has created.

Of course! As always! The deniers always come up with Al Gore’s name because they have nothing else to say! They don’t know/don’t want to know the basic physics and they are not interested in science. Deniers will always be deniers!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I like my holy water about 80 proof. That'll cure about any ailment I might have...


Could cause one too? 80 proof gets me in trouble.
GetReal- wow hello

Nea- I still have two straws, wink wink
Quoting MichaelSTL:
That said, the only possible indicator of an El Nino is the buildup of heat in the western Pacific region:



We'll have to have the right weather patterns during the spring transition period to get an El Nino, a opposed to a return to neutral/weak La Nina conditions, as in 2008.

Also of interest, during the last negative PDO phase, before 1977, El Ninos often immediately followed La Ninas in the same year (in 1951, 1957, 1963, 1965, 1968, 1972, and 1976, according to the ONI). No such cases - not even one - occurred during the positive PDO phase, perhaps because ENSO spent more time in La Nina as opposed to neutral. Recently, while not quite officially La Nina episodes (because of the duration criteria), El Ninos followed La Nina conditions in 2006 and 2009.


MJO moving east across the Pacific could be the key. If this happens then all the other models would be right in showing El-Nino by late Summer. By the way MJO does appear to be moving east over the coming weeks so we should see those C Pacific waters start warming.
Quoting reedzone:


It's called a left blog ;)


I rather some it up to that most average Americans stay away from divisive subjects. The dirty two (as I would like to call it) religion and politics have always been and will always be divisive. My friends and I have banned the dirty two from any of our conversation insofar that it will cause fights and separation from the closest of friends. Religion and politics does nothing but divide our country to the extremes preventing any rational discussion by either side of the spectrum. That is why when this forum starts getting that decisive, I refrain from discussion on here until it returns to the whether at hand.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
6:00 AM FST January 13 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category Two (977 hPa) located at 19.2S 168.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 4 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center is sectors from north through east to southwest

120 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=======================

Overall organization improved past 24 hours. Primary band wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Deep convection along main band warming past 3-6 hours due to diurnal influence. Outflow good to north, east and south, but restricted elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMMS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak assessment based on 0.80 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=3.5, MET=3.5, PT=3.5. Final Dvorak T number based of DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 19.9S 168.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 20.5S 167.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 22.8S 167.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:00 AM UTC..
Quoting aquak9:
GetReal- wow hello

Nea- I still have two straws, wink wink



I have to wonder whehter the ski lifts are operating on the mountain in Hawaii???
Quoting GetReal:

Mauna Kea photo courtesy Adrel Vicente

Snow in 49 states including Hawaii



I'm jealous:o Unfortunately this is not the year that is extreme enough to drop any significant snow onto Florida to make it all 50 states other than a pellet or two over NE Florida. I remember so many Winters in the 80s and early 90s that actually dropped snow onto the panhandle. Hasn't been any for a decade at least. I know the season is not over, but I think the pattern isn't favoring though this year.:(
Quoting Grecojdw:



I'm jealous:o Unfortunately this is not the year that is extreme enough to drop any significant snow onto Florida to make it all 50 states other than a pellet or two over NE Florida. I remember so many Winters in the 80s and early 90s that actually dropped snow onto the panhandle. Hasn't been any for a decade at least. I know the season is not over, but I think the pattern isn't favoring though this year.:(


Especially considering the wx pattern is changing toward warm and stormy for FL. I like the model output for rain Sunday thru Tuesday for FL it is looking like some drought busting rains maybe on the way.
Quoting youngmoney:


MJO moving east across the Pacific could be the key. If this happens then all the other models would be right in showing El-Nino by late Summer. By the way MJO does appear to be moving east over the coming weeks so we should see those C Pacific waters start warming.


If El Nino does appear by late summer it probably might not have a massive effect on the hurricane season, if I remember correctly some people said that El Nino has a tendency to lag.
Stumbled across this again while cleaning up last years papers. Free also !

Yo GR!

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/10/2053/2010/acp-10-2053-2010.html
Quoting youngmoney:


Especially considering the wx pattern is changing toward warm and stormy for FL. I like the model output for rain Sunday thru Tuesday for FL it is looking like some drought busting rains maybe on the way.


Up here in the Northwestern Panhandle it can get annoying. For example we've had heavy rain and 34F before with not even an ice pellet. Some of the forecast temperatures for next week call for PM rain with a low of 27F. That is the type of stuff we experience practically every winter. We have several below freezing nights every winter yet they fall during dry air and clear skies. I know the weather down there is much warmer than up here so there is always a chance for the white stuff, but the word is "almost" sigh. By the way, we had a day a few days ago that it was 39F up here on the coast in the Panhandle while it was 75F in West Palm Beach. The extremes that are experienced between one end of the state and the other amaze me living in Florida.
Here's the "damage" in central CT
Link
Quoting GetReal:

Mauna Kea photo courtesy Adrel Vicente

Snow in 49 states including Hawaii
Is that for this year or last?
NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

A few highlights:

  • Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).
  • According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
  • The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively
  • In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.
  • Preliminary totals indicate there were 1,302 U.S. tornadoes during 2010. The year will rank among the 10 busiest for tornadoes since records began in 1950. An active storm pattern across the Northern Plains during the summer contributed to a state-record 104 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, making Minnesota the national tornado leader for the first time.
  • Twelve states, mainly in the Southeast, but extending northward into New England, experienced a record warm June-August. Several cities broke summer temperature records including New York (Central Park); Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del.


More
Magnitude 6.6 - BONIN ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
2011 January 12 21:32:55 UTC
To: U.S. West Coast, Alaska, and British Columbia coastal regions
From: NOAA/NWS/West Coast and Alaska Tsunami Warning Center
Subject: Tsunami Information Statement #1 issued 01/12/2011 at 1:44PM PST

A strong earthquake has occurred, but a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, or Alaska coast. NO tsunami warning, watch or advisory is in effect for these areas.

Based on the depth of the earthquake within the earth, a tsunami IS NOT expected along the California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska coasts.

At 1:33 PM Pacific Standard Time on January 12, an earthquake with preliminary magnitude 6.6 occurred in the Bonin Islands, Japan region at 523km depth. (Refer to the United States Geological Survey for official earthquake parameters.)

Pacific coastal regions outside California, Oregon, Washington, British Columbia, and Alaska should refer to the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center messages for information on the event.

This will be the only statement issued for this event by the West Coast/Alaska Tsunami Warning Center unless conditions warrant. See the WCATWC web site for basic tsunami information, safety rules, and a tsunami travel time map and table. (NOTE: Travel time maps and tables indicate forecasted times only, not that a wave was generated.)
000
WEHW42 PHEB 122143
TIBHWX

HIZ001>003-005>009-012>014-016>021-023>026-122343-

TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT NUMBER 1
NWS PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER EWA BEACH HI
1143 AM HST WED JAN 12 2011

TO - CIVIL DEFENSE IN THE STATE OF HAWAII

SUBJECT - TSUNAMI INFORMATION

THIS STATEMENT IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY. NO ACTION REQUIRED.

AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH THESE PRELIMINARY PARAMETERS

ORIGIN TIME - 1132 AM HST 12 JAN 2011
COORDINATES - 27.4 NORTH 141.0 EAST
LOCATION - BONIN ISLANDS JAPAN REGION
MAGNITUDE - 6.6 MOMENT

EVALUATION

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

THIS WILL BE THE ONLY STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT UNLESS
ADDITIONAL DATA ARE RECEIVED.
...SP...


DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) — A surprising drop in the U.S. corn and soybean crop sent grain prices surging to their highest level in 2 1/2 years Wednesday. The price increases stoked concerns about higher food prices and tighter supplies of feedstock for food and biofuels.

Wet weather and abnormally higher temperatures contributed to lower U.S. corn production in 2010, according to a report from the U.S. Agriculture Department. The report also showed declines in soybean, wheat and grain sorghum production.

January corn futures jumped between 20 and 25 cents to $6.30 a bushel. Soybean prices jumped between 50 and 60 cents to just over $14 a bushel.

The report confirmed traders’ fears that historically low stockpiles of grain and oilseeds could leave little buffer in coming months as demand rises with a growing global economy. Prices reached their highest points since the financial crisis of 2008 caused a collapse in global demand for food and fuel.
Quoting Neapolitan:
NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record


And that is despite this:

Strongest La Nina ever: expert

A LEADING weather expert has labelled the conditions experienced across Queensland as possibly the strongest ever La Niña pattern since records began in the late 1800s.

Professor Neville Nicholls is an Australian Research Council Professorial Fellow in the School of Geography and Environmental Science at Monash University and president of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society.

He said the La Niña was associated with record warm sea surface temperatures around Australia.

“The Queensland floods are caused by what is one of the strongest (if not the strongest) La Niña events since our records began in the late 19th century,” he said.


Of interest also:

The strongest La Niña on record?

Temperatures in this region are usually lower than normal during a La Niña episode. But these temperatures have several failings, if we want to use them to rank La Niña episodes. Firstly, they are not readily available back more than about 60 years, so it is difficult to use them, for instance, to compare 2010 with events early in the 20th century.

Secondly, the general ocean warming we have seen over the past 50 or so years, due to anthropogenic enhancement of atmospheric greenhouse gases, confounds the use of these temperatures to compare a recent episode of cool temperatures with cool temperatures earlier in the record – the global warming may have offset some cooling associated with the strong, recent La Niña. This would bias any comparison between the 2010 event and earlier events, prior to the strong global warming of the second half of the 20th century.


That may very well explain why SSTs have lagged behind the SOI and other ENSO indices.

And this:



And yes, even the recent "warm-Arctic-cold continents" pattern, which leads to NOAA to underestimate warming because they don't include the extreme warm anomalies in the Arctic, where most of the warming has occurred since 1998 (in fact, 2010 was cooler than 1998 outside of the polar regions; also, last December was a full 0.6°C cooler according to NOAA, as compared to NASA, in the Northern Hemisphere, showing the effect of this pattern). Note also that NOAA was also tied for January-November, thus December wasn't incredibly cold as some claim (December 2005 also had a similar pattern, if not as extreme).
Quoting youngmoney:


Especially considering the wx pattern is changing toward warm and stormy for FL. I like the model output for rain Sunday thru Tuesday for FL it is looking like some drought busting rains maybe on the way.
You said that this week would be warm in Fl - now this-
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
HERNANDO...SUMTER...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...

.A STRONG AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FLZ049-051-052-055>057-060-061-131415-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FZ.W.0003.110113T0500Z-110113T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.A.0002.110114T0500Z-110114T1400Z/
/O.EXB.KTBW.HZ.W.0001.110113T0500Z-110113T1400Z/
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA
304 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT...

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S AROUND
SUNRISE WITH DURATIONS OF 2 TO 4 HOURS BELOW 27 DEGREES LIKELY
OVER INLAND AREAS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES 32 DEGREES OR
LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD AND
DAMAGING FREEZE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. DURING THE FREEZE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN
8 HOURS.
Mauna Kea has no lifts but people do ski there on the "pineapple powder"





RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) - Torrential summer rains tore through Rio de Janeiro state's mountains, killing at least 140 people in 24 hours, Brazilian officials said Wednesday. Rescuers using heavy machinery, shovels and bare hands struggled to dig through tons of mud and debris in a search for survivors.

In Teresopolis, a town 40 miles (65 kilometers) north of Rio, flash floods tossed cars into trees and mudslides poured tons of red earth over houses below. At least 114 died, according to a local Civil Defense official who spoke on condition of anonymity because she was not authorized to release the information. She added that 10 inches (26 centimeters) of rain fell on the town during 24 hours.

Survivors waded through waist-high water, carrying what belongings they could, trying to reach higher ground. Floodwaters continued to flow down the mountains, though rains had stopped.

"I've lived here 25 years and I've never seen anything like it," Teresopolis citizen Manoel Rocha Sobrinho told the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper. "I live on high ground and when I looked below, I only saw a sea of mud. Most people saved themselves by climbing trees."

With the new disasters, nearly 200 people have died since Christmas across the southeastern portions of the country. more
It is also interesting to compare global SSTs with the last La Nina, which was comparable in strength when measured by SST anomalies, but weaker in other indices; it appears that the minimum will be 0.1°C warmer (I wonder if this has any effect on the ENSO timing; i.e. a bigger drop in global SST leads to a longer "recharge" time before the next El Nino, since one theory of ENSO is that an El Nino develops to get rid of heat buildup):


(data comes from this site)
Good stories skyepony.
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
You said that this week would be warm in Fl - now this-
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
304 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LEVY...CITRUS...
HERNANDO...SUMTER...PASCO...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
MANATEE...SARASOTA...HARDEE...DESOTO AND HIGHLANDS COUNTIES...

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR CHARLOTTE AND LEE
COUNTIES...

.A STRONG AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OUT OF THE PLAINS AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FLZ049-051-052-055>057-060-061-131415-
/O.CAN.KTBW.FZ.W.0003.110113T0500Z-110113T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KTBW.FZ.A.0002.110114T0500Z-110114T1400Z/
/O.EXB.KTBW.HZ.W.0001.110113T0500Z-110113T1400Z/
PASCO-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW PORT RICHEY...ZEPHYRHILLS...
BRANDON...TAMPA...LAKELAND...WINTER HAVEN...BRADENTON...
WAUCHULA...SEBRING...AVON PARK...SARASOTA...VENICE...ARCADIA
304 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011

...HARD FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EST THURSDAY...
...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...
...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR TONIGHT...

HE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A HARD FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST THURSDAY. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH A HARD FREEZE WARNING.

A FREEZE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FREEZE WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FREEZING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING UNTIL MID MORNING
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 20S AROUND
SUNRISE WITH DURATIONS OF 2 TO 4 HOURS BELOW 27 DEGREES LIKELY
OVER INLAND AREAS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT MORE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR 3 TO 5 HOURS OF TEMPERATURES 32 DEGREES OR
LESS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HARD FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
IMMINENT OR HIGHLY LIKELY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KILL CROPS AND
OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

A FREEZE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A WIDESPREAD AND
DAMAGING FREEZE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS. DURING THE FREEZE
PERIOD...TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES FOR MORE THAN
8 HOURS.
I think they were referring to the pattern change that is coming next week
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think they were referring to the pattern change that is coming next week
Youngmoney was banned - he used to be Jeff, (posted nude pics) last week he convinced everyone that there would be a return to warm weather this week when the models said otherwise.
Summit, Greenland
Extended Forecast

Updated: 9:00 AM WGT on January 12, 2011

Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy.
Low:
-68
Wind
ESE
13 mph
Windchill:
-99

Thursday
Partly Cloudy.
High:
-59
Wind
ESE
8 mph
Windchill:
-97

Thursday Night
Partly Cloudy.
Low:
-85
Wind
ESE
4 mph

Friday
Scattered Clouds.
High:
-52
Wind
Calm.

Friday Night
Scattered Clouds.
Low:
-54
Wind
Calm.
Windchill:
-70

Saturday
Clear.
High:
-25
Wind
SSE
13 mph
Windchill:
-99

Saturday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-45
Wind
SSE
15 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(water equivalent of 0.02 in).
Windchill:
-72

Sunday
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
High:
-23
Wind
SSE
15 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-74

Sunday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-54
Wind
SSE
11 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(water equivalent of 0.01 in).
Windchill:
-74

Monday
Overcast.
High:
-31
Wind
SE
11 mph
Windchill:
-70

Monday Night
Overcast.
Low:
-43
Wind
SE
11 mph
Windchill:
-58


Tuesday
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
High:
-31
Wind
SSE
11 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-79

Tuesday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-56
Wind
SE
17 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-88
177. G8GT
Local Wx station on drugs! ....

Spring Hill, FL reporting 76.2 degress. All other stations reporting mid-40's.

Funny how "Global Warming" is so very local. Call Al Gore!

Link
Quoting G8GT:
Local Wx station on drugs! ....

Spring Hill, FL reporting 76.2 degress. All other stations reporting mid-40's.

Funny how "Global Warming" is so very local. Call Al Gore!

Link
Hah. Some yahoo brought their PWS inside...

Then finally woke up at 9:30 and turned the heat up.
Quoting youngmoney:


No it's the Cayman's.
Was about to say it looks like the islands...

BTW, hellowwwww ouuuuutttt thhheeerrrrrreeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!

;)
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Youngmoney was banned - he used to be Jeff, (posted nude pics) last week he convinced everyone that there would be a return to warm weather this week when the models said otherwise.


By the way I said it would be near 80 Monday and Tuesday and infact it was 79 on Monday here in Orlando and it was 74 on Tuesday.
Hmmmm.... our temps dropped 8 degrees between noon and 4 p.m..... I wonder if a cold front is coming through.... [takes tongue out of cheek]

It also went from looking like that photo in youngmoney's avatar to fully overcast.... think I'll have soup for dinner....
My apologies for being off topic but how does one quote a post? If I click "quote", I only have the option to post a new comment. Thank you for your time and attention.
Quoting supercoachdave:
My apologies for being off topic but how does one quote a post? If I click "quote", I only have the option to post a new comment. Thank you for your time and attention.


The comment you quote should appear in the comment box. If not, then there must be some bug (what browser do you have?).
MichaelSTL, I have IE.
For West Palm Beach...I don't think it reached 67 today.

Quoting jwh250:
Summit, Greenland
Extended Forecast

Updated: 9:00 AM WGT on January 12, 2011

Wednesday Night
Partly Cloudy.
Low:
-68
Wind
ESE
13 mph
Windchill:
-99

Thursday
Partly Cloudy.
High:
-59
Wind
ESE
8 mph
Windchill:
-97

Thursday Night
Partly Cloudy.
Low:
-85
Wind
ESE
4 mph

Friday
Scattered Clouds.
High:
-52
Wind
Calm.

Friday Night
Scattered Clouds.
Low:
-54
Wind
Calm.
Windchill:
-70

Saturday
Clear.
High:
-25
Wind
SSE
13 mph
Windchill:
-99

Saturday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-45
Wind
SSE
15 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(water equivalent of 0.02 in).
Windchill:
-72

Sunday
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
High:
-23
Wind
SSE
15 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-74

Sunday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-54
Wind
SSE
11 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(water equivalent of 0.01 in).
Windchill:
-74

Monday
Overcast.
High:
-31
Wind
SE
11 mph
Windchill:
-70

Monday Night
Overcast.
Low:
-43
Wind
SE
11 mph
Windchill:
-58


Tuesday
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
High:
-31
Wind
SSE
11 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-79

Tuesday Night
Chance of Snow.
Overcast.
Low:
-56
Wind
SE
17 mph
20% chance of precipitation
(trace amounts).
Windchill:
-88
Now that's what you call cold.
Quoting supercoachdave:
My apologies for being off topic but how does one quote a post? If I click "quote", I only have the option to post a new comment. Thank you for your time and attention.


Quick workaround. It involves doing a 'cut & paste'.

Start a new comment.

Go to the quote you are interested in, select the part of the quote you want and 'cut' it...then go back to your 'new comment' and 'paste' it there.

ie...This is from your original post... If I click "quote", I only have the option

There is another way but it requires you to understand html codes.




Quoting supercoachdave:
MichaelSTL, I have IE.
That's the bug. Inept Explorer strikes again!

(j/k. IE has been known to work here...sometimes.)
Quoting Neapolitan:
NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

A few highlights:



  • Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).

  • According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.

  • The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively

  • In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.

  • Preliminary totals indicate there were 1,302 U.S. tornadoes during 2010. The year will rank among the 10 busiest for tornadoes since records began in 1950. An active storm pattern across the Northern Plains during the summer contributed to a state-record 104 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, making Minnesota the national tornado leader for the first time.

  • Twelve states, mainly in the Southeast, but extending northward into New England, experienced a record warm June-August. Several cities broke summer temperature records including New York (Central Park); Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del.


More


Central Park has posted record temps after the past temperatures have been "adjusted" by the great government weather manipulators:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
What's wrong? I don't like homophobic people circumventing bans.
Ehh just let it go.Seems he has good intentions so far anyway.And is that the same jeff who lives in Orlando if I'm not mistaken?.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach



The last few model runs are showing lots of rain for the FL Penisula Sunday Night thru Tuesday and maybe severe wx as well. Looking like a perfect set up for very heavy rains for most of FL.
Quoting supercoachdave:
My apologies for being off topic but how does one quote a post? If I click "quote", I only have the option to post a new comment. Thank you for your time and attention.
In all seriousness, if you have scripts disabled, somehow, that would cause the behavior you are seeing.

(I see the same when browsing here by "smart" phone with that browser setting).
Quoting youngmoney:


YES!
Why did you name yourself after a rap group who's trying to be like the next wu-tang clan?.I don't like their music that much,well the same can be said for most music I here nowadays anyway.Now are their any model runs that show a big nor'easter anytime soon?
Quoting Neapolitan:

Proof again, reasonable people will agree, that, regardless of what some choose to believe, man's carelessness is completely capable of changing in negative ways both the atmosphere and the earth below it.


Even here in Texas there is another push against certain aquatic invasives.

Invasives should be a nobrainer, as should be efficiency.
Quoting issues - appreciate the feedback, I'll play around with the settings or install another browser.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Now that's what you call cold.


Cold doesn't mean that it is below average:



Yeah, so this is a day or two old, but people have been posting such nonsense the past few days, including for Summit.

Also, this is relevant and shows how people react to winter cold and snow (and then in the summer they scream global warming):



Indeed, it has been proven that less people believe in global warming when it is colder where they live:



Note that even at the low end, deniers make up only 30% of the population, so they still lose. On the other hand, around Hudson Bay, close to 100% believe in global warming right now, based on extrapolating the above graph:

Tampa, Florida



Long term (friday night-wednesday)...
high pressure will be in place across the region through Saturday
night. A weak trough will then develop in the southern Gulf and
lift over the area Sunday through Monday night as an upper trough
to the west moves a series of upper disturbances over the area.
This will allow for 20-30 percent rain chances. The trough will
lift north of the area Tuesday and develop into a low over the
Atlantic with 20 percent rain chances continuing across the area
for Tuesday. Temperatures will be below normal through Saturday
night...then increase to near normal Sunday and rise above normal
Sunday night through Tuesday.


Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Clear
54 F | 25 F

Partly Cloudy
54 F | 29 F

Clear
63 F | 40 F

Partly Cloudy
70 F | 47 F

Chance of Rain
72 F | 50 F
Quoting youngmoney:


The last few model runs are showing lots of rain for the FL Penisula Sunday Night thru Tuesday and maybe severe wx as well. Looking like a perfect set up for very heavy rains for most of FL.


I'll swap the chill for some rain.
Quoting Patrap:
Tampa, Florida



Long term (friday night-wednesday)...
high pressure will be in place across the region through Saturday
night. A weak trough will then develop in the southern Gulf and
lift over the area Sunday through Monday night as an upper trough
to the west moves a series of upper disturbances over the area.
This will allow for 20-30 percent rain chances. The trough will
lift north of the area Tuesday and develop into a low over the
Atlantic with 20 percent rain chances continuing across the area
for Tuesday. Temperatures will be below normal through Saturday
night...then increase to near normal Sunday and rise above normal
Sunday night through Tuesday.


Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Clear
54 F | 25 F

Partly Cloudy
54 F | 29 F

Clear
63 F | 40 F

Partly Cloudy
70 F | 47 F

Chance of Rain
72 F | 50 F
None of the models the other poster is talking about is showing heavy rain. I wish he posted links.
Emergency sirens blared across Brisbane, Australia's third-largest city, on Wednesday as floodwaters that have torn a deadly path across the northeast poured into an empty downtown, swamping neighbourhoods. At least 22 people have died and more than 40 are missing across Australia's northeastern state of Queensland since drenching rains that began in November sent swollen rivers spilling over their banks, flooding an area larger than France and Germany combined.

I see several pple posting super cold temps, -15 and -50 and such. My question is, how much of a departure from normal is that? If it's -15 when it's usually -20, it's actually WARMER than usual....

I think I've been colder here in Nassau in the last 13 months [since Jan 2010] than I have in the previous 11 winters. While I certainly attribute some of that to a larger wx / climate pattern that goes through warm / cold oscillations, e.g. PDO and other, multidecadal patterns, I don't see one or two cooler than average winters as a sign that GW is not taking place.

Now, 10 years from now, I might go along w/ the global cooling scenario....
Quoting reedzone:


You're being very rude...


Reed:

You are correct about that but...

Since I am a conservative type let me respond to some of the things that have come up, specifically the scientific parts. Yes I upchuck when faced with certain famous folks who don't walk what they talk... ignore them.

The scientific facts chased by Arrhenius and Fourier are classic. Outside of climate I still use Arrhenius plots in fluid dynamics from time to time. Arrhenius was one smart dude.

Arrhenius' radiation equation is very key. Arrhenius did predict around 1900 about a 7 C rise in arctic temperatures over 100 years... not bad; in the ball park. The basic problem these days is that there is a constant that can be determined for the radiation but we do not know the interactions with water vapor and aerosols, so there is a wide variability in the answers. The Dessler paper attempting to quantify the water vapor feedback has such a low correlation coefficient (0.02) as to render the numbers almost meaningless. The answer is 1, +/-1!? So while denying that a greenhouse gas would act like a greenhouse gas is, well, not very scientific, it is likewise not very scientific to keep off the error bars.

The IPCC report does carry wide error bars in its forward modeling. I am a mathematical scientist by degree (with strong physical science background) and I see nothing wrong in the statistical analysis of the forward modeling. Much of the controversy is centered around the statistics of the hockey stick… the most recent paper basically says the hockey stick is one possible solution of many but that it is pretty likely its hot right now.

Personally I accept the error bars of the IPCC forecasts.

The Azolla science is very interesting... what is known about this is mainly through oil and gas exploration in the Arctic. From Treehugger.com

Can we make biofuel from Azolla?

Azolla arctic oil

Getting back to the warming, is this a problem?

Yes.

First we have to understand what drives the US economy.

The US economy is almost completely coupled to coal and somewhat less coupled to oil.

Let's make a simple model to see how dependent our GDP is on an energy source

use_2005 = use_1960 * ( ( gdp_2005 / gdp_1960 ) ^ power )

Here we are just comparing 1960 to 2005 values... it's slightly more complex than this but this illustrates the principle.

For coal, the dirtiest of the fossil fuels even with respect to such things as mercury, SOX, NOX, etc., the power is 0.7. While the constant dollar GDP rose by a factor of 4 our coal use roughly tripled.

For oil the power is 0.5. Our oil use in 2005 was roughly twice that of 1960.

For natural gas the power has been 0 since 1970. Natural gas, by far the cleanest of the fossil fuels, is the poor servant that works only when others fail.

Coal is the number one problem. Hansen correctly understands this.

It is societal madness that we still have any GDP dependence upon oil. After the oil shocks in the 1970's Japan and Europe managed to decouple their GDP from oil use.

It is societal madness that we are still dependent upon coal for an increase in GDP.

We import over 50% of the oil we use, from places in the world that are generally very unfriendly to us and horrible human rights violators. What happened in the GOM is very bad but this has been going on for decades in places like Nigeria to feed America's addiction to oil.

We have to use less oil. We all have a personal responsibility to do this. This is why I always as the question to those who say AGW is important, "What is your carbon footprint and what are you doing to reduce it"?

Since you mention religion I will only point out that the biblical understanding of ecological disasters (Noah, for example) is that problems in the environment are the result of man's actions, namely, sin. Man does impact the environment according to Genesis.
This is just too cool!!!
Check the time stamp too.



"Multiple tower upward lightning flash captured at 9,000 images per second in Rapid City, SD on 6/16/10. A preceding downward positive ground flash triggers upward leaders from seven towers, three of which are visible in the video."
Quoting supercoachdave:
Quoting issues - appreciate the feedback, I'll play around with the settings or install another browser.


IE: Click Tools/Compatability View. Then set comment display to 50.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


IE: Click Tools/Compatability View. Then set comment display to 50.
Use FireFox or Chrome.

Current Conditions

University Wi Id 8918 Relay Stat, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 2 hr 18 min 58 sec ago
Temperature: -26 °F
Wind: 13 mph from the NNE
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in (Rising)
Elevation: 11001 ft


Actual Time Sun does not set Sun does not set
Civil Twilight Sun does not set Sun does not set
Nautical Twilight Sun does not set Sun does not set
Astronomical Twilight Sun does not set Sun does not set
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Use FireFox or Chrome.


Yeah, that's a better idea IMO. But we understand not everyone in the world wants to use those, right?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
None of the models the other poster is talking about is showing heavy rain. I wish he posted links.



Dont know where some get their er,,info..

But the little Box at the top of every wunderpage has the forecast for anywhere.

By City,Zip,,or country,
Quoting Patrap:



Dont know where some get their er,,info..


Do know where some get their misinfo, though...
Quoting BahaHurican:
I see several pple posting super cold temps, -15 and -50 and such. My question is, how much of a departure from normal is that? If it's -15 when it's usually -20, it's actually WARMER than usual....

I think I've been colder here in Nassau in the last 13 months [since Jan 2010] than I have in the previous 11 winters. While I certainly attribute some of that to a larger wx / climate pattern that goes through warm / cold oscillations, e.g. PDO and other, multidecadal patterns, I don't see one cooler than average winters as a sign that GW is not taking place.

Now, 10 years from now, I might go along w/ the global cooling scenario....


For people who live in the tropical Pacific, the climate has been cooling for the past three decades, thanks to the PDO and/or ENSO - yet it is warming overall:

Quoting TampaFLUSA:
None of the models the other poster is talking about is showing heavy rain. I wish he posted links.


Maybe this is what you are looking for! By the way this is the same Tampa office that forecast slight chance of showers on Monday and ended up with severe thunderstorm warnings with some areas picking up 2" to 3" of rain. The Tampa office always goes conservative until 48 hours prior.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp0_132.shtml
Quoting reedzone:


It's called a left blog ;)
So if I believe in God I must be a Republican??? First time I knew that being a Christian automatically means you are anti-left....

See, this is why I personally believe religion needs to stay out of this blog. It's much too easy for it to lead to politics.

Even though they are not SUPPOSED to be the same thing....

Quoting washingtonian115:
I think so as well.But it's to early to speculate.
It's never too early to speculate.... lol

Quoting supercoachdave:
Quoting issues - appreciate the feedback, I'll play around with the settings or install another browser.
Click the quote button. If u don't get the quote in the post comment, go back and click the quote button again. It usually works the second time. This also works for the [modify] button as well.

Quoting BahaHurican:
See, this is why I personally believe religion needs to stay out of this blog. It's much too easy for it to lead to politics.



If you follow Reed's thread (he is a bright young man so I find it ashame that somebody was rude to him) he rejects the AGW theory owing to the politicization of it.

Hopefully I was able to present it in a way that would not be offensive to him.

A certain famous politician is very offensive to me.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


For people who live in the tropical Pacific, the climate has been cooling for the past three decades, thanks to the PDO and/or ENSO - yet it is warming overall:

Hey, STL. U r pointing at what I'm talking about, that is, it's really hard to have a trend on 1 1/2 winters....

I haven't looked at local records before 1999, but between then and now, last Jan and Dec were the coldest on record for Nassau.
BahaHurian tell that to some of the people on the blog.Just like 2 weeks ago I said D.C will probally not see any snow from a storm that was occuring.And what happend?.Someone said "it's to early".Oh and don't even get me started with the hurricane Igor situation where dividog?(I'm not sure how to spell it's name)was using sarcastic comments of a cyrstal ball....
Quoting Patrap:



Dont know where some get their er,,info..

But the little Box at the top of every wunderpage has the forecast for anywhere.

By City,Zip,,or country,


Of course, there is a little caveat - WU only displays official forecasts for locations in the U.S.; otherwise, they use the GFS model output. In addition, the records displayed for those same stations usually only go back to 1996, even though the real records might be much longer (the record highs/lows are usually either blank or the min/max during that period).

For example, look at Moscow, Russia; the drop-down menu for the years only goes back to 1996 and the daily records are all from very recent years, whether warm or cold, and sometimes not far from the average, which is unlikely since daily anomalies are often large, especially in areas like that (there is also a note saying that averages and records are not official).
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, STL. U r pointing at what I'm talking about, that is, it's really hard to have a trend on 1 1/2 winters....

I haven't looked at local records before 1999, but between then and now, last Jan and Dec were the coldest on record for Nassau.


I was actually referring to your statement about a global cooling trend if you had 10 winters or more that were cooler than average, or at least trending colder, since even with global warming there are regions that show cooling over periods of 3 decades or even longer because of regional climate patterns (e.g. some, but not all, of the North Atlantic warming since 1995 has been due to the AMO, which will probably show less warming a few decades from now, like from 2010-2040, relative to the global average).
Ugh... my wife just came home and is now telling me that contrary to Texas law they want to charge me property tax for the solar panels...

"Section 11.27 of Texas tax law provides a property tax exemption available to residential, commercial and industrial applicants who use solar power. The requirements for exemption are that the solar-powered device be used for the production, storage and/or distribution of energy on-site; the exemption is limited to the appraised value of the property."

Read more: Solar Panel Incentives in Texas | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/list_7386721_solar-panel-incentives-texas.html#ixzz1ArymXsRd

Law is meaningless in this country.
Quoting EnergyMoron:


If you follow Reed's thread (he is a bright young man so I find it ashame that somebody was rude to him) he rejects the AGW theory owing to the politicization of it.

Hopefully I was able to present it in a way that would not be offensive to him.

A certain famous politician is very offensive to me.
I [+]ed your comment. It was the one reasoned and sensible argument / discussion on this topic today.

I agree that too many bloggers are letting their emotions get the best of them, and to the detriment of whatever argument they are trying to present. I don't have a problem with Reed, or with him disagreeing w/ AGW. My problem is that he is conflating religion and politics, which IMO is not right.

It would be really GREAT!!! if everybody [including u, STL] would stop making ad hominem attacks like "that's really dumb" or " you must be stupid to...." or vituperative name-calling. Unfortunately, we are not likely to see that soon. Therefore it also behooves the youngsters AND the oldsters to grow a slightly tougher skin....
Quoting washingtonian115:
BahaHurian tell that to some of the people on the blog.Just like 2 weeks ago I said D.C will probally not see any snow from a storm that was occuring.And what happend?.Someone said "it's to early".Oh and don't even get me started with the hurricane Igor situation where dividog?(I'm not sure how to spell it's name)was using sarcastic comments of a cyrstal ball....
WoaDB, DC115.... u just gotta let some things roll. I'm always too timid to through out any SERIOUS early projections - I don't spend enough time in study of the available data - BUT! if I do make a speculative comment, I don't see how somebody can logically challange it as "too early". IMO the very nature of speculation is that you are going on some intuition or "gut feeling" which does not necessarily need to be tied to a specific set of facts.... there's no time frame to that.

Otherwise we'd have no science fiction.
Quoting EnergyMoron:
Ugh... my wife just came home and is now telling me that contrary to Texas law they want to charge me property tax for the solar panels...

"Section 11.27 of Texas tax law provides a property tax exemption available to residential, commercial and industrial applicants who use solar power. The requirements for exemption are that the solar-powered device be used for the production, storage and/or distribution of energy on-site; the exemption is limited to the appraised value of the property."

Read more: Solar Panel Incentives in Texas | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/list_7386721_solar-panel-incentives-texas.html#ixzz1ArymXsRd

Law is meaningless in this country.

Not really.

Law is not set in stone.

The Constitution allows for us to change things as we wish.

All we have to do is follow their outline for doing it.

Like voting the bums out for example.


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...I don't think it reached 67 today.



I believe the afternoon high was 63. Maybe 64 between the hours.

But it was 66 shortly after midnight last night.

000
CDUS42 KMFL 122148
CLIPBI

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI, FL
447 PM EST WED JAN 12 2011


...................................

...THE WEST PALM BEACH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 12 2011...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1971 TO 2000
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1894 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
..................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MAXIMUM 66 1252 AM 86 1901 75 -9 63
MINIMUM 52 808 AM 29 1982 57 -5 38
AVERAGE 59 66 -7
Quoting MichaelSTL:


I was actually referring to your statement about a global cooling trend if you had 10 winters or more that were cooler than average, or at least trending colder, since even with global warming there are regions that show cooling over periods of 3 decades or even longer because of regional climate patterns (e.g. some, but not all, of the North Atlantic warming since 1995 has been due to the AMO, which will probably show less warming a few decades from now, like from 2010-2040, relative to the global average).
Agreed. But to me, it certainly makes more sense to think we've entered a global cooling trend if there's actually some data showing a cooling trend in the first place. To say it's cooling, or not warming, because we've had a couple of bad winter snowstorms seems ... fallacious to me.

On the bolded part, wouldn't there have to be a GLOBAL cooling trend? I don't see how having only some regions experiencing cooling would indicate a world-wide trend. So I get your point on that. If u look back at what I originally said, I wasn't indicating that a cooling trend in my own region would automatically indicate a world-wide trend. My point was "go get a trend, and then we'll talk". Sorry if it sounded like something else...
Going to be a very emotional Memorial service tonight in Tuscon. Begins at 8:00 p.m. EST.
Quoting BahaHurican:
WoaDB, DC115.... u just gotta let some things roll. I'm always too timid to through out any SERIOUS early projections - I don't spend enough time in study of the available data - BUT! if I do make a speculative comment, I don't see how somebody can logically challange it as "too early". IMO the very nature of speculation is that you are going on some intuition or "gut feeling" which does not necessarily need to be tied to a specific set of facts.... there's no time frame to that.

Otherwise we'd have no science fiction.
My speculation on hurricane Igor was unfortunally correct.I had speculated months in advance that hurricane Igor was probally going to be the bad boy of the season.The name was intimidating.Also!that reminds me I need to check the hurricane naming list this year to see which ones are going to be wimpy,and intimidating.
Careful with names. Back in 1954 the Weather Bureau was excoriated because people didn't think that hurricanes named Carol, Edna or Hazel could be dangerous. Although Hazel sounds dangerous to me personally ;)
Seems as if the record temperatures of last summer aren't so warm if the temperature history isn't adjusted:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf
Quoting BahaHurican:
It's never too early to speculate

ROFL

Edit: It seems so obvious, but ...
Quoting washingtonian115:
My speculation on hurricane Igor was unfortunally correct.I had speculated months in advance that hurricane Igor was probally going to be the bad boy of the season.The name was intimidating.Also!that reminds me I need to check the hurricane naming list this year to see which ones are going to be wimpy,and intimidating.
I remember that.... lol OTOH, nobody expected much of Fay and Hanna, and they caused some of the worst flooding all season...
Quoting BahaHurican:
I [+]ed your comment. It was the one reasoned and sensible argument / discussion on this topic today.

I agree that too many bloggers are letting their emotions get the best of them, and to the detriment of whatever argument they are trying to present. I don't have a problem with Reed, or with him disagreeing w/ AGW. My problem is that he is conflating religion and politics, which IMO is not right.

It would be really GREAT!!! if everybody [including u, STL] would stop making ad hominem attacks like "that's really dumb" or " you must be stupid to...." or vituperative name-calling. Unfortunately, we are not likely to see that soon. Therefore it also behooves the youngsters AND the oldsters to grow a slightly tougher skin....


I plussed yours also for the last paragraph.

Quoting BahaHurican:
I remember that.... lol OTOH, nobody expected much of Fay and Hanna, and they caused some of the worst flooding all season...
I still feel as though Hanna should of been retired.
Quoting Cochise111:
Seems as if the record temperatures of last summer aren't so warm if the temperature history isn't adjusted:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf


Looks like a bunch of unsubstantiated garbage to me. No author given. Seems to me if this were real, whoever wrote it would put their names on it.

Who wrote it, and who reviewed it? What publication published it?
Quoting Neapolitan:
NOAA: 2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

A few highlights:

  • Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest such period on record at 1.12 F (0.62 C) above the 20th century average. The range of confidence (to the 95 percent level) associated with the combined surface temperature is +/- 0.13 F (+/- 0.07 C).
  • According to the Global Historical Climatology Network, 2010 was the wettest year on record, in terms of global average precipitation. As with any year, precipitation patterns were highly variable from region to region.
  • The 2010 Pacific hurricane season had seven named storms and three hurricanes, the fewest on record since the mid-1960s when scientists started using satellite observations. By contrast, the Atlantic season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. The year tied for third- and second-most storms and hurricanes on record, respectively
  • In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.
  • Preliminary totals indicate there were 1,302 U.S. tornadoes during 2010. The year will rank among the 10 busiest for tornadoes since records began in 1950. An active storm pattern across the Northern Plains during the summer contributed to a state-record 104 confirmed tornadoes in Minnesota in 2010, making Minnesota the national tornado leader for the first time.
  • Twelve states, mainly in the Southeast, but extending northward into New England, experienced a record warm June-August. Several cities broke summer temperature records including New York (Central Park); Philadelphia; Trenton, N.J.; and Wilmington, Del.


More


Something's wrong with that list.

Not a single mention of AGW/global warming/climate change/climate disruption...

That's not a good sign.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:


Looks like a bunch of unsubstantiated garbage to me. No author given. Seems to me if this were real, whoever wrote it would put their names on it.

Who wrote it, and who reviewed it? What publication published it?



Me thinks the lad doth protest too much.

The data is sourced.

If it is 100 degrees outside, there is no need for a Phd to agree that it is hot outside for someone to make the comment that it is hot outside.

There is no Harry Potter Wand of Infallibility that you can always hide behind when discussing the weather.

Normal people can take information and analyze it and be correct in their conclusions. There is no need for a Phd to give an imprimatur to make the observation valid and accurate.


Quoting Cochise111:
Seems as if the record temperatures of last summer aren't so warm if the temperature history isn't adjusted:

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

Just playing there. But, still, I'm not sure why anyone would give credence to a site that purports to be devoted to scientific truth, yet at the same time openly admits to coming from a biased, non-neutral position. Science isn't about staking a position, then attempting to bend and twist facts to fit it; it's about rigorously testing a hypothesis while knowing full well you may have to alter--often drastically--your presupposition(s). Know what I mean?
Quoting hcubed:


Something's wrong with that list.

Not a single mention of AGW/global warming/climate change/climate disruption...

That's not a good sign.


So how did that global cooling bet work out?

Quoting hcubed:


Something's wrong with that list.

Not a single mention of AGW/global warming/climate change/climate disruption...

That's not a good sign.

Why would they need to say that? It's how scientific observation is done: the basic facts are laid out, and people can interpret as they see fit. Now, I'm sure some will agree, but when I see "wettest on record" and "tied for hottest on record" and "14th consecutive year with temps above the long-term average" and "12 states experienced their hottest summer on record", I interpret that to mean that something's going on--and it sure doesn't look like cooling.
My questions are still valid. Who wrote the article? Who reviewed it? Where are the references? No sources are linked to confirm anything. No references are given.

There's no other reason to write up something anonymously and unsourced unless it is garbage. Which the article is.

References, sources and author please.

An 8th grade science teacher would give an F to any paper like that. Justifiably.

We'll see if caluskat and cochise111 can shed any light on the author and references and sources for that article.

I seriously doubt it.
All the Global Modeling trends show a Warmer Solution..and a faster rate.

When we see the PPM increase..,

WV Increases at a known rate to the CO 2 %...



Jeff Masters has plenty in his archive on that.

A review is always easy.




Quoting calusakat:



Sounds like you are talking about yourself.

Hypocrite.

"Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful." - Dr. Jeff Masters (Jan. 11, 2011)

Thanks!
Steve Metzler says:
January 12, 2011 at 7:27 pm

Well, there’s at least one canard the deniers shouldn’t bring up any longer (but they inevitably will): “Since 1995, there has been no statistically significant global warming.”

Because of the ‘fine performance’ of 2010, the warming since 1995 is now statistically significant at the 95% level. They’ll just move the goalposts though. It’s the 21st century. I think they have motorised goal post movers now.


See also: Did global warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
Don't worry MichaelSTL. If any future year is even 0.01 degrees cooler than 2010 the deniers will make sure we hear all about it.

Quoting MichaelSTL:
Steve Metzler says:
January 12, 2011 at 7:27 pm

Well, there’s at least one canard the deniers shouldn’t bring up any longer (but they inevitably will): “Since 1995, there has been no statistically significant global warming.”

Because of the ‘fine performance’ of 2010, the warming since 1995 is now statistically significant at the 95% level. They’ll just move the goalposts though. It’s the 21st century. I think they have motorised goal post movers now.


See also: Did global warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
evening bloggers
i got a message from mother earth a couple of weeks ago did not say much but then again sometimes ya don't have to

MESSAGE FROM MOTHER EARTH
... --- ...
I stopped the GW debate long ago, Oil Companies (and most other companies especially auto) want GW to disappear, but scientist and alternative fuel companies would also benefit if GW were true. So all sources are biased and I trust no one, I'm just hiding until a general consensus is reached
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Don't worry MichaelSTL. If any future year is even 0.01 degrees cooler than 2010 the deniers will make sure we hear all about it.



Well, this is what Spencer's satellite data shows:



Of course, it should be compared to 2008 (which is why I included it), not 2010, because of La Nina - global warming should (and does) make La Nina years warmer, even if they are cooler than El Nino years. Also, note that the average shown here is NOT the actual average as used by UAH, as shown here (that said, Spencer recently changed his base period so that anomalies are now lower).
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Careful with names. Back in 1954 the Weather Bureau was excoriated because people didn't think that hurricanes named Carol, Edna or Hazel could be dangerous. Although Hazel sounds dangerous to me personally ;)
Carol, Edna and Hazel were very bad storms..I would guess you have heard 1974,s Fifi which killed thousands..And if that does not sound threatening enough, here is 2005,s Typhoon Longwang. It killed 148 people in the Western Pacific...
Quoting hydrus:
Carol, Edna and Hazel were very bad storms..I would guess you have heard 1974,s Fifi which killed thousands..And if that does not sound threatening enough, here is 2005,s Typhoon Longwang. It killed 148 people in the Western Pacific...



I forgot about Fifi, which reminds me of an annoying toy poodle. I remembered "Longwang" but I let that one go. I'm trying to decide if I should go back and look at the blog entries back then talking about it.

Naaaaaah ;)
Quoting all4hurricanes:
I stopped the GW debate long ago, Oil Companies (and most other companies especially auto) want GW to disappear, but scientist and alternative fuel companies would also benefit if GW were true. So all sources are biased and I trust no one, I'm just hiding until a general consensus is reached

There will never be a general consensus; even if winter disappeared altogether, snow became a thing of the past, the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets melted into a couple of stray puddles, global sea levels rose 30 feet, and atmospheric CO2 thickened to 100,000 ppm, there'd still be some swearing it wasn't warming, and even if it was, it wasn't from CO2, and even if it was, it wasn't really all that bad. :-\
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:



I forgot about Fifi, which reminds me of an annoying toy poodle. I remembered "Longwang" but I let that one go. I'm trying to decide if I should go back and look at the blog entries back then talking about it.

Naaaaaah ;)
There were some entries. I honestly did not believe it, then of course Google.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I still feel as though Hanna should of been retired.
I think the main reason it wasn't was because there had already been so much damage in Haiti that it was hard to tell whether it was Fay, Gustave, Hanna or Ike that caused the problem... that plus I am not sure Haiti's government was much motivated to retire it.

Hanna was basically a non-event here for us, despite the fact that we were the other 1/3 of her crazy triangle. The worst of her was the pounding waves that impacted the ocean sides of the eastern facing islands, which washed out beaches and roads.
Tropical Storm Vania eyeing the country of New Caledonia. Should hit the country as a strong Category 1 cyclone (Saffir Simpson Scale). It may be strong enough to be a Category 2 cyclone (saffir simpson scale)

Neapolitan, once the summer arctic ice disappears, I fully expect that we will read denier claims that the arctic ice area has stopped decreasing.
Tropical Cyclone Vince:



Could become a Category 1 cyclone. It has a weird projected path. :)

Quoting cyclonekid:
Tropical Storm Vania eyeing the country of New Caledonia. Should hit the country as a strong Category 1 cyclone (Saffir Simpson Scale). It may be strong enough to be a Category 2 cyclone (saffir simpson scale)



You think Vania will go major after New Caledonia or start its decline?




Good evening, folks.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:


You think Vania will go major after New Caledonia or start its decline?
It should start it's weakening. SSTs are much too cold for strengthening.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Good evening, folks.


Good evening PSL!
Good to know cyclonekid, I'll keep an eye on it.
I have a serious question to ask all you GW people with all respect. Are you willing to accept the economic consequences of the collapse of civilization as we know it to stop right now of the use of fossil fuels?

This isn't going to happen but just for discussion I want to know if you are willing to go with no electricity, no heat, no modern agriculture, no jobs, no food, whatever?

It's a really cool position to take, however I really really want to know if you understand what's going to happen if we do this?

Quoting caneswatch:


Good evening PSL!



Hello friend, how are ya?
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:




Good evening, folks.


Evening. Had a lot of fun cleaning 1/2" of ice off my vehicles today. Would rather have had 5" of snow, I believe.
Shivering South





Quoting Neapolitan:

"Glad to see y'all are passionate about the truth--just keep it respectful." - Dr. Jeff Masters (Jan. 11, 2011)

Thanks!
That's what I meant in my earlier post. That last word is just not necessary. It doesn't prove anything about the ARGUMENT.

The only other thing I'll add before I head out is that we still have a LOT to learn before we fully understand what's happening to our planet. It makes a lot more sense to find out what the facts are rather than thinking up cute new ways to insult people you disagree with.

If u missed it, go back and read EnergyMoron's post #206. There's a lot of sense in there.

Goodnight to all, and hope u snowed under ones stay safe.
Vince is supposed to make an aweful sharp turn how reliable is that?
Quoting twincomanche:
I have a serious question to ask all you GW people with all respect. Are you willing to accept the economic consequences of the collapse of civilization as we know it to stop right now of the use of fossil fuels?

This isn't going to happen but just for discussion I want to know if you are willing to go with no electricity, no heat, no modern agriculture, no jobs, no food, whatever?

It's a really cool position to take, however I really really want to know if you understand what's going to happen if we do this?

Can you say baby and bath water? Who says we have to quit cold turkey? President Obama proposed an eminently logical approach; set a national goal to reduce dependence on foreign oil, then on fossil fuels, say, by 2030 or 2040. PEOPLE OF AMERICA get out and develop innovative new ways to produce energy which do less damage to the environment. These are adopted en masse, thus cutting down the costs.

What's so hard to do?

[Sorry folks, I was leaving when I heard this one. Sheesh.]
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Evening. Had a lot of fun cleaning 1/2" of ice off my vehicles today. Would rather have had 5" of snow, I believe.


Ice is a bad deal.

Good evening to you, Bud.
Quoting twincomanche:
I have a serious question to ask all you GW people with all respect. Are you willing to accept the economic consequences of the collapse of civilization as we know it to stop right now of the use of fossil fuels?

This isn't going to happen but just for discussion I want to know if you are willing to go with no electricity, no heat, no modern agriculture, no jobs, no food, whatever?

It's a really cool position to take, however I really really want to know if you understand what's going to happen if we do this?



Uh, collapse of civilization? Who are you listening to?

Introduction to climate economics: Why even strong climate action has such a low total cost
A cost of one tenth of a penny on the dollar -- not counting co-benefits

Energy and global warming news for January 12, 2011: Global investment in clean energy soaring; China, still outspending US, now matches us in wind capacity

Global investment in low-carbon energy surged to a record $243 billion last year, boosted by a 30 percent spending increase in China and a burst in small-scale solar-power installations.

The figure eclipses the $186.5 billion spent in 2009 and is more than double the level in 2005, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said today in a statement. The investment came even as clean energy shares had a “lackluster performance” last year, the London-based research company said.

The investment “flies in the face of skepticism about the clean-energy sector among public market investors,” New Energy Finance Chief Executive Officer Michael Liebreich said. “We have been saying for some time that the world needs to reach a figure of $500 billion per annum investment in clean energy if we are to see carbon emissions peak by 2020. What we are seeing in these figures for the first time is that we are halfway there.”


Of course, then we have stuff like this, where China says that coal demand will continue to increase for the foreseeable future, regardless of how much we put into renewable energy:

Special Report- China tries to give old king coal a merrier soul

Chinese government analysts expect annual coal demand to reach at least 4 billion tonnes by 2020, 25 percent higher than 2009, even after taking into account unprecedented levels of investment in nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro that the country is likely to see over the period.
Quoting twincomanche:
I have a serious question to ask all you GW people with all respect. Are you willing to accept the economic consequences of the collapse of civilization as we know it to stop right now of the use of fossil fuels?

This isn't going to happen but just for discussion I want to know if you are willing to go with no electricity, no heat, no modern agriculture, no jobs, no food, whatever?

It's a really cool position to take, however I really really want to know if you understand what's going to happen if we do this?


Praise be to thee for asking this question. It really is The Question.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Good to know cyclonekid, I'll keep an eye on it.


Here is the GFS forecast track with SSTs for Vania (I got it from here):

Quoting twincomanche:
I have a serious question to ask all you GW people with all respect. Are you willing to accept the economic consequences of the collapse of civilization as we know it to stop right now of the use of fossil fuels?

This isn't going to happen but just for discussion I want to know if you are willing to go with no electricity, no heat, no modern agriculture, no jobs, no food, whatever?

It's a really cool position to take, however I really really want to know if you understand what's going to happen if we do this?


First, whether or not AGW mitigation is economically feasible in no way invalidates the theory. But, okay, allow me to reverse the question: are you willing to accept famine, droughts, disease, loss of major coastal cities, forced mass migrations, and at least the possibility of a man-caused ELE to continue the unimpeded use of fossil fuels?

At any rate, we're at or near peak oil already, so we're going to be forced one way or the other to move away from fossil fuels. Why not do it now while we still have a chance to do it on our own terms?
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can you say baby and bath water? Who says we have to quit cold turkey? President Obama proposed an eminently logical approach; set a national goal to reduce dependence on foreign oil, then on fossil fuels, say, by 2030 or 2040. PEOPLE OF AMERICA get out and develop innovative new ways to produce energy which do less damage to the environment. These are adopted en masse, thus cutting down the costs.

What's so hard to do?

[Sorry folks, I was leaving when I heard this one. Sheesh.]

At least the post does not deny the climate problem. Give credit where credit is due.
The question assumes that economic supplies of fossil fuels are infinite, which they are not. They day is coming that all economically viable fossil fuels will be consumed. And that is a reality even if global warming weren't a concern.

I'd like to know what twincommanche's plan is to continue our civilization without fossil fuels, and how long we can continue increasing fossil fuel consumption (India, China, et al.)
Quoting BahaHurican:
That's what I meant in my earlier post. That last word is just not necessary. It doesn't prove anything about the ARGUMENT.

The only other thing I'll add before I head out is that we still have a LOT to learn before we fully understand what's happening to our planet. It makes a lot more sense to find out what the facts are rather than thinking up cute new ways to insult people you disagree with.

If u missed it, go back and read EnergyMoron's post #206. There's a lot of sense in there.

Goodnight to all, and hope u snowed under ones stay safe.

What last word? "Thanks"? I wasn't being facetious; I was simply saying something polite people say when showing appreciation.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Can you say baby and bath water? Who says we have to quit cold turkey? President Obama proposed an eminently logical approach; set a national goal to reduce dependence on foreign oil, then on fossil fuels, say, by 2030 or 2040. PEOPLE OF AMERICA get out and develop innovative new ways to produce energy which do less damage to the environment. These are adopted en masse, thus cutting down the costs.

What's so hard to do?

[Sorry folks, I was leaving when I heard this one. Sheesh.]


Splain to me the plan. I run a business and need to know the details. That's always the hard part.
Quoting Ossqss:


What the heck is wrong with you? Are discussions on hurricane defeating tunnels next? Just sayin, you have now achieved the rare fringe category.

What do we expect next from your type, if we don't hide ?

And now for something completely different, NOT! Gheeze!!!!!!!!! think about it ~~~~~~









LMAO, I love that clip! Nice Oss. Thanks.
Quoting Neapolitan:

First, whether or not AGW mitigation is economically feasible in no way invalidates the theory. But, okay, allow me to reverse the question: are you willing to accept famine, droughts, disease, loss of major coastal cities, forced mass migrations, and at least the possibility of a man-caused ELE to continue the unimpeded use of fossil fuels?

At any rate, we're at or near peak oil already, so we're going to be forced one way or the other to move away from fossil fuels. Why not do it now while we still have a chance to do it on our own terms?


Rejecting several of your premises the answer is yes. Shutting down civilization as we know it is not a option.
Quoting Ossqss:


What the heck is wrong with you? Are discussions on hurricane defeating tunnels next? Just sayin, you have now achieved the rare fringe category.

What do we expect next from your type, if we don't hide ?

And now for something completely different, NOT! Gheeze!!!!!!!!! think about it ~~~~~~






And still nothing to add but ad hominem attacks. Will you please put me on ignore so you don't have to be bothered by my posts? Please? I'll even pay you if you want. It'll make me happier, and it'll save you from needing to waste time on YouTube looking for "clever" videos with which to insult. Deal?
@ Nea.... I meant the last word in the post you quoted. YOUR last word was ok.... lol guess that's just another sign of my "beated"-ness...
Quoting BahaHurican:
@ Nea.... I meant the last word in the post you quoted. YOUR last word was ok.... lol guess that's just another sign of my "beated"-ness...

Oh, I gotcha. ;-)

I'm out; another conference call with some clients from Down Under. Behave while I'm gone--and, as always, let politeness and scientific truth rule the day. And the evening and night, too. ;-)
Quoting bappit:

At least the post does not deny the climate problem. Give credit where credit is due.
Well, that is true, but I was trying to give a sensible answer.... lol..... I think this "all or nothing", "black and white" approach to every issue is what is killing America right now [I don't mean literally, I mean in terms of making progress instead of just stagnating or limping along]. I think some people take pride in sheer stubbornness, as if compromise is a dirty word. It makes a difficult climate in which to face the kinds of challenges Americans, and to be frank the Americas as a whole, are likely to face in the next 40 years....

I'm REALLY gone this time.... lol
Quoting twincomanche:


Splain to me the plan. I run a business and need to know the details. That's always the hard part.

Sorry, you weren't given credit for asking a legitimate question.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
9:00 AM WST January 13 2011
========================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (986 hPa) located at 15.2S 109.4E, or 900 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.6S 111.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.0S 113.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 17.0S 114.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 17.0S 112.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

The system remains under approx 15 knots of shear, with shear decreasing due to a retrogressing upper trough. Conditions are favourable for development over the next 48 hours.

Dvorak analysis is based on a shear pattern, with the LLCC moving closer to deep convection over the past 12 hours as shear decreased. Some difficulty in discerning LLCC overnight and on recent vis imagery. TC Vince is forecast to move slowly east-southeast before it recurves westwards around 12Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours].

The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological rate until it begins its westwards movement. After this, shear and SST's become less favorable and the system should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..



Apparently, I'm not up to speed on the "slights" category.


I just like Monty Python.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
10:00 AM EST January 13 2011
==========================================

At 9:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.9S 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as almost stationary.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 151.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 13.1S 152.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #13
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
12:00 PM FST January 13 2011
=====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 19.8S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots and is reported as moving west southwest at 5 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center is sectors from north through east to southwest

120 NM from the center elsewhere

Additional Information
=======================

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. Primary bands wrapping tightly around low level circulation center. Deep convection along main band warming past 6 hours due to diurnal influence. Outflow good to north, east and south but developing elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak assessment based on 1.10 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=4.0, MET=4.0, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 20.6S 167.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.4S 166.9E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 24.1S 167.2E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 8:00 AM UTC..
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
The question assumes that economic supplies of fossil fuels are infinite, which they are not. They day is coming that all economically viable fossil fuels will be consumed. And that is a reality even if global warming weren't a concern.

I'd like to know what twincommanche's plan is to continue our civilization without fossil fuels, and how long we can continue increasing fossil fuel consumption (India, China, et al.)


First let me say that our children's children will not see the end of the supply of fossil fuels. Hydrogen technology will take over in the next few years and oil will only be used for petro chemicals and the like. If the dumb butts of the left allow nuclear energy to flourish in America it will become a major player in electricity.
We cannot allow ourselves to become victims of the "we'll tax the hell out of present energy" to get to new energy. We must let the market place to work, not do things that most of the world won't buy, to drive us.
Quoting twincomanche:


Splain to me the plan. I run a business and need to know the details. That's always the hard part.
You work it out. I'm not an American. As a Bahamian, I'm looking for ways to change how we do things here, and you betcha my government is going to find out about them. It's easy to play devil's advocate and naysay all day. In your position as a businessman, YOU should be looking at the economic viabilities of alternative energy sources; YOU should be figuring how to make it work.
Quoting BahaHurican:
You work it out. I'm not an American. As a Bahamian, I'm looking for ways to change how we do things here, and you betcha my government is going to find out about them. It's easy to play devil's advocate and naysay all day. In your position as a businessman, YOU should be looking at the economic viabilities of alternative energy sources; YOU should be figuring how to make it work.


In Obama's America I spend most of my time just trying to survive and maintain my employees jobs.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW
10:00 AM EST January 13 2011
==========================================

At 9:00 AM EST, Tropical Low (1000 hPa) located at 14.9S 151.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The low is reported as almost stationary.

The low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 12 to 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.4S 151.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS: 13.1S 152.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 7:00 AM UTC..

Will this system affect the already flood devastated areas?...
that roof glacier picture is awesome!
Dr. Master's blog is very informative, but I wouldn't look here for advice on business planning, twincommanche.
Quoting hurristat:
that roof glacier picture is awesome!


Check comment #131 :)
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
My questions are still valid. Who wrote the article? Who reviewed it? Where are the references? No sources are linked to confirm anything. No references are given.

There's no other reason to write up something anonymously and unsourced unless it is garbage. Which the article is.

References, sources and author please.

An 8th grade science teacher would give an F to any paper like that. Justifiably.

We'll see if caluskat and cochise111 can shed any light on the author and references and sources for that article.

I seriously doubt it.


I guess you didn't read post 241 did you.

If a person created a graph showing ...

0 1=1
1 1=2
1 2=3
1 3=4
1 4=5
1 5=6

Using your twisted methodology, that graph would be judged invalid until someone waved their Harry Potter Wand of Infallibility over it first.

The presentation we are discussing made it clear the source of information. Perhaps you might want to take the time to see for yourself if the data was actually used in the discussion. No, instead you attempted the AGW technique of re-direction.

Time to stop hiding behind Harry Potter and get your hands dirty for a change.


Quoting twincomanche:


First let me say that our children's children will not see the end of the supply of fossil fuels. Hydrogen technology will take over in the next few years and oil will only be used for petro chemicals and the like. If the dumb butts of the left allow nuclear energy to flourish in America it will become a major player in electricity.
We cannot allow ourselves to become victims of the "we'll tax the hell out of present energy" to get to new energy. We must let the market place to work, not do things that most of the world won't buy, to drive us.


Advanced nuclear reactor technology would enable a nearly 50,000 year supply of energy (not accounting for growth, since people do have that problem - if there is this much energy available, lets use it! Or, higher efficiency lights, for example, may make people leave them on more):



That's a thousand times more energy than conventional reactors, which use only a tiny fraction of the available energy (hence all of the nasty waste).

Also, the figures on fossil fuels (and uranium, although thorium can also be used and is more abundant) assume that we can extract them at current rates until they are depleted; in reality, production peaks before all reserves are used, and some will never be extracted because it is too expensive. Although, that depends - one barrel of oil is equivalent to about 25,000 hours of manual human labor - so at $10 per hour, that is $250,000 per barrel of oil (and people complain when oil is only $90 a barrel!); also, advanced extraction technologies do enable us to extract more, but also accelerates depletion, and more significantly, the eventual decline rate.
from Calusakat. The presentation we are discussing made it clear the source of information.

No, it didn't. It gave no author. It gave no sources. It gave no references. Period.
I must have made too much sense. No comments. Have to go for tonight. Night all.
Quoting twincomanche:


In Obama's America I spend most of my time just trying to survive and maintain my employees jobs.

I would not give any one president ownership of the state of the economy and everything else. That sounds like you are looking for a scapegoat.

Edit: what timing on my post.
Inspirational Memorial Service. I hoped some of you watched it. Also, the first anniversary of the Haiti earthquake. All are in our prayers.
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
from Calusakat. The presentation we are discussing made it clear the source of information.

No, it didn't. It gave no author. It gave no sources. It gave no references. Period.



Oh yes it did.

Take off the AGW rose colored glasses and you will find the the sources referenced multiple
times.

Oh...and one more thing...open your eyes this time too.

Kind of difficult reading through your eyelids.


FYI

For the rest of you folks, the article under discussion is presented through the icecap.us website.

Not too shabby.

Check them out for yourselves.


Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Inspirational Memorial Service. I hoped some of you watched it. Also, the first anniversary of the Haiti earthquake. All are in our prayers.


Warm weather suits my family fine. We are in the home refrigeration business. AGW? Cha Ching!!
Quoting calusakat:



Oh yes it did.

Take off the AGW rose colored glasses and you will find the the sources referenced multiple
times.

Oh...and one more thing...open your eyes this time too.

Kind of difficult reading through your eyelids.




No, it didn't. If it had, you would link the article we are talking about and give the author, sources and references. It has none of those things. Period.
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:



Hello friend, how are ya?


Completely forgot I was on LOL, but i'm good, how about you?
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:


No, it didn't. If it had, you would link the article we are talking about and give the author, sources and references. It has none of those things. Period.


Hello...hello...tap..tap..is anybody in there?

This discussion is based on your misinformed comments in post 239.

You yourself provided that link by including the quote which referenced it.


Quoting caneswatch:


Completely forgot I was on LOL, but i'm good, how about you?


If you'd stop listening to that old music, you would know what you are doing.
Quoting KrippleCreekFerry:
Warm weather suits my family fine. We are in the home refrigeration business. AGW? Cha Ching!!


Hmmm... if you were a farmer, you'd be saying very different, that's for sure!

Extreme weather events help drive food prices to record highs

India Farmer Suicides Linked To Crop Failure, Climate Change (VIDEO)

Australia floods: Food prices 'to rise 30%'

Also... you DO have to buy food, don't you? Well, maybe it isn't such a problem in the U.S. (unless you are unemployed and don't have anybody to depend on), but it sure is in other parts of the world where people consider themselves lucky to make a dollar per day.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Hmmm... if you were a farmer, you'd be saying very different, that's for sure!

Extreme weather events help drive food prices to record highs

India Farmer Suicides Linked To Crop Failure, Climate Change (VIDEO)

Australia floods: Food prices 'to rise 30%'

Also... you DO have to buy food, don't you? Well, maybe it isn't such a problem in the U.S. (unless you are unemployed and don't have anybody to depend on), but it sure is in other parts of the world where people consider themselves lucky to make a dollar per day.


everything that happens in this world isn't caused by climate change just saying...
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf

And as I said, this article contains no author, no references and no sources.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


everything that happens in this world isn't caused by climate change just saying...


Right, and extreme weather events are NOT increasing in frequency and intensity! That is always what the naysayers say (reinsurance companies beg to differ, and no, claims from earthquakes and volcanoes are not increasing at the same rate so something must be causing more weather extremes)! Of course, no single event can be solely blamed on climate change (although some recent events have been so extreme that you just have to wonder), but the general trend is what is expected to occur.
Okay, so heres my problem with this Global warming... It cant reduce and increase something at the same time... not physically possible... yet there are papers on it...
Global Warming Causes More and Less Tornadoes

That doesn't even make sense to the reasonable person...

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


everything that happens in this world isn't caused by climate change just saying...


Yup, much needs re-evaluation for certain :)

Quoting MichaelSTL:


Right, and extreme weather events are NOT increasing in frequency and intensity! That is always what the naysayers say (reinsurance companies beg to differ, and no, claims from earthquakes and volcanoes are not increasing at the same rate so something must be causing more weather extremes)! Of course, no single event can be solely blamed on climate change (although some recent events have been so extreme that you just have to wonder), but the general trend is what is expected to occur.


I understand that, but like saying these rains and snowfalls are "unprecedented", that is such the wrong word... It's Unprecedented for the 500 or so years there has been accurate recordings of history... these storms could have happened thousands of times and either humans not there to document it, or without the knowledge to.
Hi Evening Folks.
CONUSIRLoop
It's 40 and feels quite cold here in ECFL tonight.
I grew up in Connecticut and know I do not want to try to tolerate that sort of relentless cold anymore. Somewhere on the news it said 100,000 people in Massachusetts had lost power. Not a good night for that!
Quoting Grothar:


If you'd stop listening to that old music, you would know what you are doing.


What are you saying about 80s music LOL
Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Central_Park_Temperatures_Two.pdf

And as I said, this article contains no author, no references and no sources.


If you want hand holding from me...aint no way.

Your laziness is not my problem.

The answers are all there for you to find if only you weren't so lazy.

Okay...okay, one hint. That which you called an article is actually a PDF which is part of an article. The PDF is referred to as an Update.

Get busy and do your homework cause I aint doing it for you.


Quoting Neapolitan:


At any rate, we're at or near peak oil already, so we're going to be forced one way or the other to move away from fossil fuels. Why not do it now while we still have a chance to do it on our own terms?


My goodness I agree with Nea for a change.

We are at peak-cheap-oil (my energy company allows me to say that) and peak oil will happen sometime (my energy company says 2026 but does anybody really know?).

A tremendous amount of energy will be needed to crossover to a renewable economy. It will take 30 years if history is a guide.

The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stones.

I agree with Nea PRECISELY because we are going to need all of that fossil fuel energy to build the next generation of stuff.

And here is the kicker neither party has figured out yet. Hopefully the environmental problems with coal are well understood... they are a resource, and perhaps if 2,000 years or so another ice age hits (estimate from planetary source) burning coal would be a good thing. If one wanted to solve the problem without coal we were up a creek....

All this shale gas is a life-line, a bridge to a clean energy future.

Use it wisely... we came about this close to being up a creek without a paddle (other than old king coal).




Maybe the greatest graphs of all time to debunk the AGW theory... notice the slope of the ice loss and sea level rise before the increase and after the increase in fossil fuels. Notice how there is no change.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Evening Folks.
CONUSIRLoop
It's 40 and feels quite cold here in ECFL tonight.
I grew up in Connecticut and know I do not want to try to tolerate that sort of relentless cold anymore. Somewhere on the news it said 100,000 people in Massachusetts had lost power. Not a good night for that!


"BOSTON (CBS/AP) – The heavy, wet, wind-blown snow caused massive power outages across southeastern Massachusetts, especially in Plymouth County.

According to Gov. Deval Patrick, 100,000 customers had no electricity as of noon Wednesday.

That was reduced to 80,000 two hours later by the state Emergency Management Agency.

By 8 p.m. Wednesday evening, restoration efforts continued, with just more than 13,000 customers reporting no electricity.

National Grid reported more than 73,000 customers without power late in the morning, more than half in Plymouth County, with the Bridgewater area the hardest hit, including Halifax and Pembroke."
Brazil floods, mudslides kill at least 270

Floods and mudslides have devastated mountain towns around Rio de Janeiro and in Brazil's south, killing at least 270 people in 24 hours as the nation braces for more deaths.

Many died in the night and early morning as the rain in some areas came so quickly people did not have time to evacuate. The Serrana region north of Rio received about a month's rainfall in 24 hours, Reuters reports. Rescue workers attempted to find survivors in homes buried by mudslides.
Quoting Neapolitan:

First, whether or not AGW mitigation is economically feasible in no way invalidates the theory. But, okay, allow me to reverse the question: are you willing to accept famine, droughts, disease, loss of major coastal cities, forced mass migrations, and at least the possibility of a man-caused ELE to continue the unimpeded use of fossil fuels?

At any rate, we're at or near peak oil already, so we're going to be forced one way or the other to move away from fossil fuels. Why not do it now while we still have a chance to do it on our own terms?


The question really is this.

Why all the lies?

Conservation of resources and elimination of pollution are vital to our survival as a species.

WHY
ALL
THE
LIES
???

Why not tell the truth and push for conservation of resources and elimination of pollution?

There is no justification for doing a bad thing in the name of a good thing.

AGW is a lie.





Quoting EnergyMoron:


My goodness I agree with Nea for a change.

We are at peak-cheap-oil (my energy company allows me to say that) and peak oil will happen sometime (my energy company says 2026 but does anybody really know?).

A tremendous amount of energy will be needed to crossover to a renewable economy. It will take 30 years if history is a guide.

The Stone Age didn't end for lack of stones.

I agree with Nea PRECISELY because we are going to need all of that fossil fuel energy to build the next generation of stuff.

And here is the kicker neither party has figured out yet. Hopefully the environmental problems with coal are well understood... they are a resource, and perhaps if 2,000 years or so another ice age hits (estimate from planetary source) burning coal would be a good thing. If one wanted to solve the problem without coal we were up a creek....

All this shale gas is a life-line, a bridge to a clean energy future.

Use it wisely... we came about this close to being up a creek without a paddle (other than old king coal).


Everyone should read the book Peak Everything by Richard Heinberg


Quoting MichaelSTL:
Brazil floods, mudslides kill at least 270

Floods and mudslides have devastated mountain towns around Rio de Janeiro and in Brazil's south, killing at least 270 people in 24 hours as the nation braces for more deaths.

Many died in the night and early morning as the rain in some areas came so quickly people did not have time to evacuate. The Serrana region north of Rio received about a month's rainfall in 24 hours, Reuters reports. Rescue workers attempted to find survivors in homes buried by mudslides.


again the average rainfall, which has been taken for how long? which means for the millions of years the earth's been alive it could've happened how many times?
Quoting caneswatch:


What are you saying about 80s music LOL


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




Maybe the greatest graphs of all time to debunk the AGW theory... notice the slope of the ice loss and sea level rise before the increase and after the increase in fossil fuels. Notice how there is no change.


The Planet is not Recovering from the LIA

To sum up, with the exception of the human population, the factors which contributed to the LIA cannot account for the global warming of the past 50-100 years. Further, it is not physically accurate to claim that the planet is simply "recovering" from the LIA. This argument is akin to saying that when you drop a ball off a cliff, it falls because it used to be higher. There is a physical mechanism for these changes. In the case of the ball, it falls because of the gravitational pull at the Earth's surface. In the case of the global temperature, it is warming from the increased greenhouse effect due to human activities.
Are glaciers growing or retreating?

Although Glaciologists measure year-to-year changes in glacier activity, it is the long term changes which provide the basis for statements such as "Global Glacier Recession Continues". Some Skeptics confuse these issues by cherry picking individual glaciers or by ignoring long term trends. Diversions such as these do not address the most important question of what is the real state of glaciers globally?



(hint, hint, Arctic sea ice volume vs. area or extent)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Everyone should read the book Peak Everything by Richard Heinberg




Looked at the reviews and with caveats I would say yes. Also good (with caveats) is Collapse by Jared.

I don't share the inherent Malthusianism and am (except for the stupidity of the politicians of both stripes) an optimist, but the case for action is definitely there.

Doing nothing is not an option.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:




These guys were on Jimmy Fallon playing this last night:

Quoting MichaelSTL:


The Planet is not Recovering from the LIA

To sum up, with the exception of the human population, the factors which contributed to the LIA cannot account for the global warming of the past 50-100 years. Further, it is not physically accurate to claim that the planet is simply "recovering" from the LIA. This argument is akin to saying that when you drop a ball off a cliff, it falls because it used to be higher. There is a physical mechanism for these changes. In the case of the ball, it falls because of the gravitational pull at the Earth's surface. In the case of the global temperature, it is warming from the increased greenhouse effect due to human activities.


STL, the slope hasn't changed in ice loss, or sea level rise, its undeniable that that graph proves, it started naturally before the industrial revolution, you can't ignore that.


(wonder what this would look like if you included the past decade)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


The Planet is not Recovering from the LIA

To sum up, with the exception of the human population, the factors which contributed to the LIA cannot account for the global warming of the past 50-100 years. Further, it is not physically accurate to claim that the planet is simply "recovering" from the LIA. This argument is akin to saying that when you drop a ball off a cliff, it falls because it used to be higher. There is a physical mechanism for these changes. In the case of the ball, it falls because of the gravitational pull at the Earth's surface. In the case of the global temperature, it is warming from the increased greenhouse effect due to human activities.
So, you're saying that glaciers, etc. wouldn't reflect the solar changes between the Dalton minimum and now? Impervious to changes in the heat budget of the planet?
Wow.

Or, are you proposing that all glaciers would have immediately reverted to a state appropriate to insolation changes?

I note the AGW-proponents talking points guide has no mention that the usual "indicators" of global warming would also be affected by the same.
Love that song Canes....Here is another one I like:

Quoting MichaelSTL:


(wonder what this would look like if you included the past decade)


STL you know that graph is so skewed, just because of the ease of access it is now to report things as they happen! Now there are 24 hours news stations, and tabloids, its just so much easier to find out and report things that happen. I also would like to see that graph in the past decade cause im sure it'd either level out or decrease a bit.

Its just like the cancer, like it has risen like 150% in the past 50 years.(not sure if that correct, just for sake of arguement) its just the doctors now know what it is. The number hasnt actually increased.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Love that song Canes....Here is another one I like:



Here's another one that's awesome:

Quoting atmoaggie:
So, you're saying that glaciers, etc. wouldn't reflect the solar changes between the Dalton minimum and now? Impervious to changes in the heat budget of the planet?
Wow.

Or, are you proposing that all glaciers would have immediately reverted to a state appropriate to insolation changes?

I note the AGW-proponents talking points guide has no mention that the usual "indicators" of global warming would also be affected by the same.


Solar changes?





Not so much, unless you are looking at some really outdated reconstructions (hint - look at stratospheric aerosols)...

Not to mention, as usual, you utterly fail to explain the warming by any plausible natural cause that SOMEHOW has been overlooked by millions of scientists around the globe!
Quoting Grothar:


If you'd stop listening to that old music, you would know what you are doing.


Good night Gro.

Actually, a very good night... actually found a point of agreement with Nea (you know you need to emphasize the positive).

And...

Het was echte koud gisteren avond, zoals je had gezedgt. Het tuin is nu "Zwart Dood". Herinnerin je dat in het 14st eeuw of zo?

je ben juist... het is koud.

Te veel "anti-freeze" mischien?

Wel te rustig...
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Solar changes?





Not so much, unless you are looking at some really outdated reconstructions (hint - look at stratospheric aerosols)...
From your talking points guide:



You don't know what the LIA is? Or the Dalton minimum?

Again: So, you're saying that glaciers, etc. wouldn't reflect the solar changes between the Dalton minimum and now? Impervious to changes in the heat budget of the planet?
Wow.

This is tiresome and boring. G'Nite.
I'll raise you this...

353. flsky
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Speaker of the House John Boehner stayed in Washington for a fundraiser. I report...you decide.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Speaker of the House John Boehner stayed in Washington for a fundraiser. I report...you decide.

This is a man who cries a lot and "prays all day long."
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Good night Gro.

Actually, a very good night... actually found a point of agreement with Nea (you know you need to emphasize the positive).

And...

Het was echte koud gisteren avond, zoals je had gezedgt. Het tuin is nu "Zwart Dood". Herinnerin je dat in het 14st eeuw of zo?

je ben juist... het is koud.

Te veel "anti-freeze" mischien?

Wel te rustig...


Ik vertelde u. Geloof mij nu?

It is nice to agree with someone now and then. Have a good one. Turning in early tonight. If AGW turns out to be true, I am going to buy some water front property in Kansas. Just speculating. Have a good night everyone.
Gnight!

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I'll raise you this...

Lol..We had some good laughs when that one first came out..They have written some cool songs.
Quoting Grothar:


Ik vertelde u. Geloof mij nu?

It is nice to agree with someone now and then. Have a good one. Turning in early tonight. If AGW turns out to be true, I am going to buy some water front property in Kansas. Just speculating. Have a good night everyone.
....Geloof?...:)
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Yes, and you wouldn't be so smug if we were face-face in real life (because you'd never ever talk back to me again - or anybody else for the matter).

Not to mention, you still fail utterly to grasp the meaning of this:



By the way:



Interpretation:



Yale profile of Wunderground.com’s Jeff Masters: “The ignorance and greed that human society is showing [on climate change] will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction.”

Indeed...

(So I give the last punch)


you ignored me cause i outsmarted you? thank goodness! didnt realize you were so mature
LOL:

Turns out humans are not like slowly boiling frogs … we are like slowly boiling brainless frogs

I learned something new or, rather, old from reading Fallows’ blog. The famous metaphor* — “the fatally slow human response to climate change makes us like a slowly boiling frog” — is not quite right. As Wikipedia puts it, German physiologist Friedrich Goltz “demonstrated that frogs will indeed remain in slowly heated water, but only if their brain is removed.”

Technically, we are the subspecies Homo sapiens sapiens, as I’ve said before (see “Is the global economy a Ponzi scheme?“). Such are the privileges of being the only species that gets to name all the species, so we can call ourselves “wise” twice! But given how we have been destroying the planet’s livability, I think at the very least we should drop one of the “sapiens.” And, perhaps provisionally, we should put the other one in quotes, so we are Homo “sapiens” sapiens at least until we see whether we are smart enough to save ourselves from ourselves.
Quoting hydrus:
....Geloof?...:)


Dutch for believe. Just busting chops! EnergyMoron and I always write little zingers to each other in Dutch. This way we won't get attacked if we say something inflammatory.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


you ignored me cause i outsmarted you? thank goodness! didnt realize you were so mature


way to show your lack of maturity when commenting on someone else's maturity.

The only time people ever get ignored around here is for breaking the rules, or for not listening to common sense.

Since you aren't banned, I'm guessing it's the latter of the two.
Quoting TomTaylor:


way to show your lack of maturity when commenting on someone else's maturity.

The only time people ever get ignored around here is for breaking the rules, or for not listening to common sense.

Since you aren't banned, I'm guessing it's the latter of the two.


sorry i look at facts and graphs instead of listening to "common sense"
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sorry i look at facts and graphs instead of listening to "common sense"
move along nothing to see here it was only fireworks
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


sorry i look at facts and graphs instead of listening to "common sense"

Then what good are you.

If you can't think for yourself, you aren't thinking at all.

And want some facts? Here are some facts:

Humans add CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases warm the planet.

Put the pieces of the puzzle together, and maybe you will understand what every single other form of scientific evidence (ice caps melting, glaciers melting, animal migration patterns changing, temperature's rising, ssts rising, etc, etc) is trying to tell you.
Quoting alfabob:
I'd have to say that temperatures around SE Michigan have been above average for most of the winter, snow wasn't that bad either up till today. The current cold conditions probably won't be occurring too often after this winter, so enjoy it while it's still around.

Quoting NRAamy:
jed..... I swear, you consistenly make more sense that most of the "adults" on here.... it's young men like you that give me hope for our future..... I always look forward to your posts.... take care.....



Thanks, I'm just learning from my parents, in case you wonder where I got it from lol. Of course these days most young people trash their elders and just accept every well designed lie that hits their ears. Of course, not all parents give their kids wisdom as I'm sure we know lol. but in a general sense you know what my point is.
Quoting TomTaylor:

Then what good are you.

If you can't think for yourself, you aren't thinking at all.

And want some facts? Here are some facts:

Humans add CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 is a greenhouse gas. Greenhouse gases warm the planet.

Put the pieces of the puzzle together, and maybe you will understand what every single other form of scientific evidence (ice caps melting, glaciers melting, animal migration patterns changing, temperature's rising, ssts rising, etc, etc) is trying to tell you.


trust me im a physics major, I'm greatly aware that humans, can not physcically not impact the earth however, the minute .32% of the atmosphere that humans do affect does not change it a whole lot. Plus the graphs i posted before clearly show that glacier melting and sea level rise are on the same slope now as they weer in 1850. Guess how many cars were on the road then?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
move along nothing to see here it was only fireworks


wait, there are more dead birds? :p
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
move along nothing to see here it was only fireworks


Great movie, great line.... LOL
Dr. Masters should do a post on the link I posted in comment 358 (about greedy, ignorant people), so the people in this blog would really see how he feels about them, since a link to another site apparently isn't convincing enough. then they will wonder what they are doing on this site. After all, most other pro-AGW sites (like Climate Progress and RealClimate) aren't overrun by such people. Of course, Climate Progress moderates comments, even ones I have posted, but apparently only because of certain words or links (they usually get approved), as even Anthony Watts has posted comments before - you also don't even have to register, which should encourage trolling.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Dr. Masters should do a post on the link I posted in comment 358 (about greedy, ignorant people), so the people in this blog would really see how he feels about them, since a link to another site apparently isn't convincing enough. then they will wonder what they are doing on this site. After all, most other pro-AGW sites (like Climate Progress and RealClimate) aren't overrun by such people. Of course, Climate Progress moderates comments, even ones I have posted, but apparently only because of certain words or links (they usually get approved), as even Anthony Watts has posted comments before - you also don't even have to register, which should encourage trolling.

don't worry STL
soon nothing is to matter at all

the scales have already tipped
and we have passed the point of no return
a while ago
Quoting atmoaggie:
From your talking points guide:



You don't know what the LIA is? Or the Dalton minimum?

Again: So, you're saying that glaciers, etc. wouldn't reflect the solar changes between the Dalton minimum and now? Impervious to changes in the heat budget of the planet?
Wow.

This is tiresome and boring. G'Nite.


More superstition - what a surprise. If you really knew something you'd flesh out one point with some degree of competence. You dont, so you play the field attempting to plant uncertainty anywhere you can and it shows. When that doesn't work you go for a more individual approach.

Totally unethical methodology but look at who you link to and get inspiration from.

Thats not science. Thats your political issues.

I think you are projecting also with the "tiresome and boring" part.

Add predictable to it.
358 Put me on that long list of people i feel left out! :(
Some real geniuses on today. Cant say much about global warming without being attacked in some way by someone. Global warming is real and a serious problem for the globe. Imagine what it will be like a 100 yrs from now... oh man!
379. jpsb
Quoting MichaelSTL:




Not to mention, as usual, you utterly fail to explain the warming by any plausible natural cause that SOMEHOW has been overlooked by millions of scientists around the globe!

What warming? It's freaking freezing here in Texas
another lovely evening of arguing.
Hey Michael STL, I bet this site will sure get your blood pumping :)

Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


trust me im a physics major, I'm greatly aware that humans, can not physcically not impact the earth however, the minute .32% of the atmosphere that humans do affect does not change it a whole lot. Plus the graphs i posted before clearly show that glacier melting and sea level rise are on the same slope now as they weer in 1850. Guess how many cars were on the road then?



HAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAH

AHAHAHA


You can't be serious. You have no idea, NOT A CLUE, how much of an effect humans have on the atmosphere.

But you admit humans have an effect, so I'm glad you understand that this is, at least in part, man made global warming. To what extent, nobody truly knows.
The truth comes out eventually, thank God some scientists have always stood by the truth, no matter how much trash they have to take. The good news is, all this junk will be over soon enough, I can't wait to hear from the the International Conference on Global Warming that will be arriving in May :)

Link
What a total lie and fraud.

Thats not a real conference by a scientific body.

Heres their history:

In the 1990s, the Heartland Institute worked with Philip Morris to question the link between secondhand smoke and health risks

In 2005, it was estimated that exposure to secondhand smoke kills more than 3,000 adult nonsmokers from lung cancer, approximately 46,000 from coronary heart disease, and an estimated 430 newborns from sudden infant death syndrome. -- U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The Health Consequences of Involuntary Exposure to Tobacco Smoke: A Report of the Surgeon General%u2014Executive Summary
A FAKE CONFERENCE. How much lower and dishonest can you get.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Thats just ignorant jed. A FAKE CONFERENCE. How much lower and dishonest can you get.


Do you need me to take you to the hospital?

Cause your blood pressure looks dangerously high :)

Its funny, it must have been because I posted a link to a website that also gives you access to scientists who support science without government agenda and belief in fake science based around lies and assumptions.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
3:00 PM WST January 13 2011
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (986 hPa) located at 15.7S 109.5E, or 850 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 111.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 113.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.6S 113.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.7S 110.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Some difficulty in determining the fix using VIS imagery but a combination of VIS and microwave imagery was used to get a moderate confidence fix. Shear has decreased to around 15 knots as the system interacts with the upper trough. Conditions are considered moderately favorable for development over the next 24-36 hours.

Dvorak analysis using an IR shear pattern gives 3.0 and with the LLCC under the overcast. It is possible to get a 0.7 curved band wrap but the scene is not a classic curved band scene. The trend of D- using VIS imagery gives a MET of 3.0. The morning CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate is consistent with a 40 knot [10-min] final intensity estimate.

TC Vince is forecast to move east-southeast before it recurves westwards around 18Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours].

The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological rate until approx 12 hours after starting its westwards movement. After this, shear and SST's become less favorable and the system should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 10U
4:00 PM EST January 13 2011
==========================================

At 3:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (997 hPa) located at 14.2S 149.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving northwest at 7.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.3S 150.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 13.7S 152.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)

Curved band pattern with 0.3 degree wrap on log10 spiral, giving DT of 2.0.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
Continue to blow your fuses, while I got some sleep.

By the way, the weather underground blogs were not created so people can freak out about the end of the world because they believe in an unproved hypothesis known as Global Warming.

If you want to blow your top like a volcano, please go to the Green Peace blogs or something of that nature. Because you are ruining what makes these blogs great.

Jed, from what I see Dr. Masters cares a great deal about global warming. He's also a member of http://www.350.org/ So it is reasonable to discuss the issue.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Do you need me to take you to the hospital?

Cause your blood pressure looks dangerously high :)

Its funny, it must have been because I posted a link to a website that also gives you access to scientists who support science without government agenda and belief in fake science based around lies and assumptions.


No, and since you want to quote that because I was being nice and removed it.

It is ignorant - you didn't even bother to research the source or present a single specific argument.

I know that criticism of the messenger is a favored tactic with the anti science crowd around here - and harassment, but you jsut betraying a general lack of rigor in your own belief system.

My blood pressure in neither here nor there. You posted a complete fraud as a scientific movement.

Lets face it you cant make a legitimate referenced climate related post.

You should let the adults in the room discus it If they wish and not behave poorly by harassing them or posting irrelevant material. If you do not wish to discus it technically then simply dont and ignore it.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


No, and since you want to quote that because I was being nice and removed it.

It is ignorant - you didn't even bother to research the source or present a single specific argument.

No I know that is a favored tactic with the anti science crowd around here - harass the messenger, but you jsut betraying a general lack of rigor in your own belief system.

My blood pressure in neither here nor there. You posted a complete fraud as a scientific movement.

Lets face it you cant make a legitimate referenced climate related post.

You should let the adults in the room discus it.


Have fun man :)
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST January 13 2011
======================================

Low Pressure Area lies over southwest Bay of Bengal persists.

Vortex over southwest Bay of Bengal centered near 7.5N 83.5E. Dvorak Intensity T1.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over southwest Bay of Bengal south of 10.5N and west of 83.5E, Sri Lanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar.
Ive also seen you say several inappropriate things to stl when basically you have no legitimate comments or counter arguments to make.

This is isnt facebook or a popularity contest.

"Have fun man"?

Good and well considered response. I stand rebuked and corrected.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE VINCE (09U)
3:00 PM WST January 13 2011
========================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Vince, Category One (986 hPa) located at 15.7S 109.5E, or 850 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 55 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D0.5/24HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
80 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 111.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 113.1E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 16.6S 113.3E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
72 HRS: 16.7S 110.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)

Additional Information
======================

Some difficulty in determining the fix using VIS imagery but a combination of VIS and microwave imagery was used to get a moderate confidence fix. Shear has decreased to around 15 knots as the system interacts with the upper trough. Conditions are considered moderately favorable for development over the next 24-36 hours.

Dvorak analysis using an IR shear pattern gives 3.0 and with the LLCC under the overcast. It is possible to get a 0.7 curved band wrap but the scene is not a classic curved band scene. The trend of D- using VIS imagery gives a MET of 3.0. The morning CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate is consistent with a 40 knot [10-min] final intensity estimate.

TC Vince is forecast to move east-southeast before it recurves westwards around 18Z on 14 Jan [+/- 12 hours].

The system is forecast to intensify at nearly the climatological rate until approx 12 hours after starting its westwards movement. After this, shear and SST's become less favorable and the system should weaken.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..


Sorry hades, I was just reading about Vince too. It is not expected to worsen flooded areas - THANKFULLY.
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Ive also seen you say several inappropriate things to stl when basically you have no legitimate comments or counter arguments to make.

This is isnt facebook or a popularity contest.

"Have fun man"?

Good and well considered response. I stand rebuked and corrected.


To be fair, STL is equally guilty of such derogatory comments. Granted, he seems to have improved a bit since his return, but still.
Quoting jwh250:
Mount Etna briefly erupts on Italy's Sicily Island




wow! an awesome sight to behold
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
18:00 PM FST January 13 2011
=====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category Two (975 hPa) located at 20.2S 167.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots and is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots. Position POOR based on multispectral visible/infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in the sector from north through east to southwest

within 120 NM elsewhere

Additional Information
=======================

Overall organization has improved past 24 hours. Primary band has wrapped tightly around low level circulation center. Deep warming of cloud tops along main band over past 6 hours due to diurnal influence. Outflow good to north, eat and south but developing elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track for the next 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.

Dvorak assessment based on 1.30 LOG10 spiral yielding DT=4.0, MET=PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 21.6S 167.3E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.9S 167.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 25.3S 167.5E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 14:00 PM UTC..


Global Warming's gonna freeze us to death here in Florida!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Global Warming's gonna freeze us to death here in Florida!


It might actually just do that too. At least in short bursts. Until rather recently there was not really even modeling of this kind of destabilization.

These radical swings in temperature are disastrous for wildlife. Not to mention the spreading of pathogens in the wetter and stressed environment. I wonder how bad it can get.



2010 tied for Earth's warmest year on record

Last year tied with 2005 as the world's warmest on record, according to data released Wednesday by the National Climatic Data Center. Records began in 1880.

also the wettest year on record globally as measured by average precipitation, according to the center.

Nine of the Earth's 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, and all 12 of the warmest years have occurred since 1997.

In a separate global temperature report released last week, 2010 finished in a tie with 1998 for the warmest year in the 32-year satellite temperature record,
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Global Warming's gonna freeze us to death here in Florida!


I just saw that Accuweather has a low of 19F for FWB/Niceville Fl for tonight while NOAA indicates an upgrade to a hard freeze warning for our area because of the snow pack to the North of our area not allowing for warming to occur. It says we will barely get out of the thirties today:o Amazing!!!
Quoting Grecojdw:


I just saw that Accuweather has a low of 19F for FWB/Niceville Fl for tonight while NOAA indicates an upgrade to a hard freeze warning for our area because of the snow pack to the North of our area not allowing for warming to occur. It says we will barely get out of the thirties today:o Amazing!!!


I have a reading of 21F with a windchill of 6F currently. Wow!! (Fort Walton Beach, Fl/Northwestern Florida Panhandle to be specific).
Brazil mudslides kill at least 335, destroy towns

'There are so many disappeared — and so many that will probably never be found'


"RIO DE JANEIRO — Driving rains sent tons of rusty red earth sliding into mountain towns, killing at least 335 people and leaving dozens more missing, Brazilian media reported Thursday.

"Hillsides and river banks in the picturesque Serrana region north of Rio de Janeiro buckled under about 10 inches of rain — the equivalent of a month's rainfall in 24 hours — destroying houses and killing many people early Wednesday, rescue officials said."

More...
406. IKE
23.5 my low so far...inland Florida panhandle...surrounded by 2 lakes.
23*F in Macon, Ga this morning. High today 38 and Sunny.
Low tonight around 16, NW winds of 10 to 15 mph.
Wind chill around 10.
408. IKE
23.2 my new low.

Florida huh?
morning, been reading a long time and decided to say hello. 30 here in north tampa
410. IKE
Low now 22.8 at my location.

Quoting oceanminded:
morning, been reading a long time and decided to say hello. 30 here in north tampa


Welcome.
Quoting oceanminded:
morning, been reading a long time and decided to say hello. 30 here in north tampa

Welcome oboard. Never thought I'd say this but it is currently warmer in Alaska than in Florida. Kodiak, Alaska is 32 degrees right now.
412. IKE
22.5 my low. Sun-up in about 10 minutes.

Sing it George....Link
its 30 with a windchill of 17 here in Northern Pinellas County! Definitely the coldest morning Ive ever seen where its windy. Usually we need radiational cooling for that. This wind makes it feel down right brutal...
It is 35.2 with wind chill of 28F in Fort Myers at this time. We are not expected to reach 60F today
Cold though it may be, it's not much out of the ordinary for the second week of January; according to HAMweather, just 13 record daily lows were set or tied yesterday across the CONUS (there were no record daily highs). The coldest of the records: -47 in Dickinson, ND (a tie with that station's all-time record). Ouch... I would imagine there will be many more today, though we'll have to wait until all stations have reported.

Danbury, CT, received 21.8" of snow yesterday, a new all-time record snowfall.
416. IKE
5 day QPF...



..............................................

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 20 2011

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ENGULFING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND TROUGHING MID-CONTINENT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LINE UP UNDER
THE BASE OF A POLAR VORTEX WAXING AND WANING ACROSS NUNAVUT. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE GENERAL IDEAS.
DETAIL-WISE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS OUT PHASE WITH THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
CROSSING CANADA FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ENDING UP WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. USED A COMPROMISE OF
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO GET MORE REALISTIC PRESSURES...THOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE
MOVED BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SURFACE LOWS WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE
LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED OVER THE GEFS
MEAN FOR PRESSURE VERIFICATION REASONS. THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH OUR PREVIOUS DAY OF SOLUTIONS.

THIS SOLUTION SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WET INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE STORM TRACK/UPPER
TROUGH SETS UP FARTHER WEST THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX
WEEKS...WHICH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE JANUARY THAW.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CYCLONE
CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH AND EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
EAST...THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER
WEST/INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ROTH


Thanks for the info, Ike.
I was wondering about that system to the WNW.
img src="Click for New Smyrna Beach, Florida Forecast">
It's after 8 a.m. and still subfreezing in New Smyrna Beach.
It was 29.8F at 8:15am here in old downtown Palm Harbor, FL near the coast. This winter and the last have had the lowest temps I've ever experienced in north Pinellas County since I moved here during the 1983 freeze.
ETC3 Studio, Ellijay, Georgia (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
13.0 °F
Scattered Clouds

Snow's got a nice crunch to it today.

420. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Thanks for the info, Ike.
I was wondering about that system to the WNW.
img src="Click for New Smyrna Beach, Florida Forecast">
It's after 8 a.m. and still subfreezing in New Smyrna Beach.


You're welcome.....

.........................................


Sunshine today. Warm-up starts tomorrow.

McCartney....let me roll it....
Quoting FloridaKestrel:
It was 29.8F at 8:15am here in old downtown Palm Harbor, FL near the coast. This winter and the last have had the lowest temps I've ever experienced in north Pinellas County since I moved here during the 1983 freeze.


It'll be a little chilly eatin' steamed oysters at JBs tonight.
Maybe this will warm some of you... ;-)

We've previously posted the following list showing the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations across the CONUS from January 1960 through September 2009:

1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Now, according to figures from the NCDC, 19,213 daily record highs were set or tied in 2010, compared to 8,374 record daily lows:

2010: 2.29 to 1

Pretty incredible. Obviously if the climate were neither warming nor cooling, the ratios would be expected to be pretty close to 1:1. If it were cooling as some have theorized, the ratios would likely be reversed (that is, one would expect there to be more record lows than record highs). Of course, the ratio for 2011 may not be as extreme as 2010's, but it will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the decade. If things go as most climate scientists believe, that CONUS ratio for this decade should be somewhere close to 2.8 or 2.9 to 1. If, on the other hand, The Great Global Cooldown gets underway, as a few have theorized is about to happen, the high/low ratio should have a higher number to the right. But as they say: we'll see.
Chicklit, I must of hit the wrong "quote" But you already knew that. Must be the cold.
We got a few hours of flurries yesterday here in N. Ga. Doesn't look like any melting anytime soon.
I don't think it would feel much warmer at home.

Pine Channel Estates, Big Pine Key, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 12 sec ago
53.4 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 77%
Dew Point: 46 °F
Wind: 27.0 mph from the NNW

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Chicklit, I must of hit the wrong "quote" But you already knew that. Must be the cold.
We got a few hours of flurries yesterday here in N. Ga. Doesn't look like any melting anytime soon.

Not sure exactly where you are, but the ten-day for Dalton calls for only today to stay below freezing; every other day is above to well-above 32 for a high (and Monday's forecast to not even get there overnight). So--fortunately or unfortunately, depending how you look at it--it's not going to be around long after today...
We're between Ellijay & Blue Ridge. Tomorrows high in town is forecast at 36. We usually run about 6 degrees lower, Summer or Winter.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
424 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

NCZ021>023-038-039-073>075-083>086-088-089-140930-
FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
424 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 DEGREE
RANGE. ICY PATCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING ON SECONDARY
ROADWAYS AS WELL AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

$$
428. Jax82
9-Jan-2010 SST


9-Jan-2011 SST
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe this will warm some of you... ;-)

We've previously posted the following list showing the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations across the CONUS from January 1960 through September 2009:

1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Now, according to figures from the NCDC, 19,213 daily record highs were set or tied in 2010, compared to 8,374 record daily lows:

2010: 2.29 to 1

Pretty incredible. Obviously if the climate were neither warming nor cooling, the ratios would be expected to be pretty close to 1:1. If it were cooling as some have theorized, the ratios would likely be reversed (that is, one would expect there to be more record lows than record highs). Of course, the ratio for 2011 may not be as extreme as 2010's, but it will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the decade. If things go as most climate scientists believe, that CONUS ratio for this decade should be somewhere close to 2.8 or 2.9 to 1. If, on the other hand, The Great Global Cooldown gets underway, as a few have theorized is about to happen, the high/low ratio should have a higher number to the right. But as they say: we'll see.


How much of an impact has the Iceland volcano had on the artic circulation being in reverse?

You talk of the great global cooldown...do you have any source links or deeper insight of that.

Appreciate it.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Uh, collapse of civilization? Who are you listening to?


Introduction to climate economics: Why even strong climate action has such a low total cost
A cost of one tenth of a penny on the dollar -- not counting co-benefits

Energy and global warming news for January 12, 2011: Global investment in clean energy soaring; China, still outspending US, now matches us in wind capacity

Global investment in low-carbon energy surged to a record $243 billion last year, boosted by a 30 percent spending increase in China and a burst in small-scale solar-power installations.

The figure eclipses the $186.5 billion spent in 2009 and is more than double the level in 2005, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said today in a statement. The investment came even as clean energy shares had a “lackluster performance” last year, the London-based research company said.

The investment “flies in the face of skepticism about the clean-energy sector among public market investors,” New Energy Finance Chief Executive Officer Michael Liebreich said. “We have been saying for some time that the world needs to reach a figure of $500 billion per annum investment in clean energy if we are to see carbon emissions peak by 2020. What we are seeing in these figures for the first time is that we are halfway there.”


Of course, then we have stuff like this, where China says that coal demand will continue to increase for the foreseeable future, regardless of how much we put into renewable energy:


Special Report- China tries to give old king coal a merrier soul

Chinese government analysts expect annual coal demand to reach at least 4 billion tonnes by 2020, 25 percent higher than 2009, even after taking into account unprecedented levels of investment in nuclear, wind, solar, and hydro that the country is likely to see over the period.


Speaking about China's coal, I wonder if they've ever put out those fires:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/4330469.stm

"...But the scale of China's own entangled history with coal is overwhelming. Right across northern China, coal seams burn in un-stoppable fires.

Some have been burning naturally for thousands of years, but others are being set alight by small-scale mining operations seeking to cash in on soaring coal prices.

Together, these perpetual fires are letting off a total amount of carbon dioxide each year equal to all the cars in the USA..."
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #15
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA (03F)
0:00 AM FST January 14 2011
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Vania, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 20.6S 167.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots and is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Storm Force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
210 NM from the center in the sector from north through east to southwest

within 120 NM elsewhere

Additional Information
=======================

Overall organization has improved over the past 24 hours. Primary band has wrapped tightly around the low level circulation center. Deep warming of cloud tops along main band past 3 hours. Outflow good to north, east, and south but restricted elsewhere. Cyclone lies under a 250 HPA diffluent region with low shear. CIMSS indicates decreasing shear along forecast track for the next 12 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System currently steered by a weak northerly deep layer mean regime.


Dvorak assessment based on embedded center pattern with MG surrounding yielding DT=4.5, MET=PT=4.5. Final Dvorak T number based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity:T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southwest with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity:
========================
12 HRS: 21.3S 167.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 22.4S 167.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 26.0S 167.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 20:00 PM UTC..
Quoting MichaelSTL:


You still fail utterly to grasp the meaning of this:



By the way:



Interpretation:



Yale profile of Wunderground.com%u2019s Jeff Masters: %u201CThe ignorance and greed that human society is showing [on climate change] will be to our ultimate detriment and possible destruction.%u201D

Indeed...

(So I give the last punch)



Hahahaha!

Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
We're between Ellijay & Blue Ridge. Tomorrows high in town is forecast at 36. We usually run about 6 degrees lower, Summer or Winter.


Good Morning,

Drive threw your neck of the woods from the Florida Panhandle several time a year heading to Murphy. Alway enjoy driving through some real mountains.
Quoting JFLORIDA:


More superstition - what a surprise. If you really knew something you'd flesh out one point with some degree of competence. You dont, so you play the field attempting to plant uncertainty anywhere you can and it shows. When that doesn't work you go for a more individual approach.

Totally unethical methodology but look at who you link to and get inspiration from.

Thats not science. Thats your political issues.

I think you are projecting also with the "tiresome and boring" part.

Add predictable to it.
Aww, couldn't find anything at all wrong with the discussion of glaciers and the LIA solar minimums?

So, had to invoke "attack scary science type" emergency action plan. Sad that you guys cannot use any logic on the topic, which would make it a lot less tiresome and boring.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Cold though it may be, it's not much out of the ordinary for the second week of January; according to HAMweather, just 13 record daily lows were set or tied yesterday across the CONUS (there were no record daily highs). The coldest of the records: -47 in Dickinson, ND (a tie with that station's all-time record). Ouch... I would imagine there will be many more today, though we'll have to wait until all stations have reported.

Danbury, CT, received 21.8" of snow yesterday, a new all-time record snowfall.


Isn't this like the second winter in a row that's had snow repored in a majority of states (last year, on Feb 12th, all 50 at one time, this year, 49 of 50 with flurries possible tonight in Fla)?

Not that it's a sign of global cooling, but a trend is starting...
40 here this morning in Terra Ceia FL.
Bottomed out at 21 F in Slidell (~25 miles NE of NOLA)
[This article translated by Google.]

Beyond the Arctic Circle, can find the time needed for day and night depending on latitude up to half a year, the sunrise something very special - even more so when the always joyfully anticipated event is just around two days early is taking place. According to the KNR Radio Greenland, the sun was in West Greenland Ilulissat on Tuesday (11.1.) at exactly 12:56:57 Clock. Normally the sun goes there until 13 January for the first time after the polar night again. Inhabitants of the third-largest city with 4,500 inhabitants of Greenland, made because of the early sun appeared worried. "Here in the place the sun comes up until 13 January. There will not be the right one or the other," quoted the Greenlandic radio KNR Holger Sivertsen, a 74-year-old local, in a report on his website. Scientists rule out that the observation could have geophysical or astronomical reasons. "In the constellation of the stars has not changed, "said Wolfgang Lenhardt, head of the geophysics department at the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) on the high tower. "Since even an outcry would have gone around the world." The data of Earth's axis and Earth's rotation in question were constantly and meticulously monitored. Thomas Posch from the Institute for Astronomy at the University of Vienna completed astronomical reasons for the premature end of the polar night also made. He suggests that the observation is due to a change in the local horizon. An accelerated by the melting of the Greenland ice sheet-related lower horizon earlier than previously allowed a glimpse of the sun appears, as "by far the most obvious"explanation. According to Lenhardt it could possibly also to an atmospheric phenomenon - act - for example by ice crystals caused a mirage.

Here ya go...what 1030am and still in the 30's in wcfl.
Global Warming in the news

http://theweek.com/article/index/210181/irony-alert-the-unusually-chilly-global-warming-summit

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/climatechange/8178162/Are-we-freezing-because-of-globa l-warming.html

Quoting ILwthrfan:

You talk of the great global cooldown...do you have any source links or deeper insight of that.

The "Great Global Cooldown" comment was a joking reference to the theory offered by a number of people--including some right here on WU--that states not only is there no such thing as "global warming", but the planet is actually cooling. Source-wise, it's easy to find plenty of press; here's a representative sampling:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/19/global-cooling-scientists-warming/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6965342/Big-freeze-could-signal-global-w arming-pause.html

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling/article10866.htm

http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/12/18/cooler-year-on-a-cooling-planet/

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

IMO, it takes a special kind of person to look at certain facts--2010 was one of the warmest ever recorded, seven of the warmest years ever recorded start with "20", the top ten warmest year ever have been since 1995, the growing imbalance between record highs and record lows etc.--and proclaim with certainty, "Yep, the globe is definitely cooling." Now, the "coolistas" may eventually be proven correct--but so far there are absolutely no signs of it happening.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The "Great Global Cooldown" comment was a joking reference to the theory offered by a number of people--including some right here on WU--that states not only is there no such thing as "global warming", but the planet is actually cooling. Source-wise, it's easy to find plenty of press; here's a representative sampling:

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/05/19/global-cooling-scientists-warming/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/environment/globalwarming/6965342/Big-freeze-could-signal-global-w arming-pause.html

http://www.dailytech.com/Temperature Monitors Report Widescale Global Cooling/article10866.htm

http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2008/12/18/cooler-year-on-a-cooling-planet/

http://www.isthereglobalcooling.com/

IMO, it takes a special kind of person to look at certain facts--2010 was one of the warmest ever recorded, seven of the warmest years ever recorded start with "20", the top ten warmest year ever have been since 1995, the growing imbalance between record highs and record lows etc.--and proclaim with certainty, "Yep, the globe is definitely cooling." Now, the "coolistas" may eventually be proven correct--but so far there are absolutely no signs of it happening.


Are temperature comparisons made from site to site, or overall global temperatures?

It seems to me that more reporting stations are coming online everyday, perhaps these stations are in warmer, developing countries, while the older readings are from cooler, developed countries.

Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.
Quoting hcubed:


Isn't this like the second winter in a row that's had snow repored in a majority of states (last year, on Feb 12th, all 50 at one time, this year, 49 of 50 with flurries possible tonight in Fla)?

Not that it's a sign of global cooling, but a trend is starting...

That "trend" of which you speak is called "winter". It's a recurring phenomenon long-term climate records show happens on average once a year. ;-)

Click for larger image:

See No Science. Speak No Science. Hear No Science.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.
Hey Aussie!

That sounds bad...
WD has another explanation for the earlier sunrise.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hi all, back again.
If anyone has any questions about the flooding in Northern NSW and SE Queensland WU-mail me and i'll try to answer them as best as I can.

Latest news,
25 dead since the start of the flood crisis. 15 this week.
12 from the inland tsunami that struck Toowoomba and Gatton on Tuesday afternoon.
59 people still missing.
103,000 people without power.
50-80 Suburbs in Brisbane effect by flooding.
4.2m/13.2ft Brisbane river peaked at 4:15am.

Been watching that in the news and via blogs from Oz. Pretty amazing, and pretty devastating. I know a lot of people are wishing you guys all the best...
Lets have a closer look at those surface stations.

http://surfacestations.org/

Then lets listen to the, soon to follow, well tamed scientific explanation of how they have a cold bias and the temps should be higher :)
Quoting Skyepony:
WD has another explanation for the earlier sunrise.
That is interesting. Wonder if something about the atmosphere is different from other years to allow for it...
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey Aussie!

That sounds bad...

The area of the disaster declared zone is the size of France, Spain and half of Germany combined.

I was just re-reading the seasonal outlook by the BOM and it says:
Queensland may experience above average tropical cyclone activity this coming season, with up to six cyclones developing in the Coral Sea. It is also likely to be wetter than normal in most parts.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Queensland Regional Director, Jim Davidson, said this is because we're now in a La Nina climate phase, which he expects will remain the dominating influence through the Spring and Summer months.

La Nina events are usually associated with above normal rainfall across much of Queensland and enhanced tropical cyclone activity in the Coral Sea.

Mr Davidson said "What this translates to is where historically we could expect an average of four cyclones a season in the Coral Sea, we now expect the number to be potentially higher, but the number of cyclones actually making landfall can be quite variable from season to season."

"However, under these conditions, we have a good chance of a cyclone crossing the coast before the year is out." he said.

Mr Davidson urged Queenslanders to "prepare early not only for cyclones but also for floods as we have already experienced record September rainfalls across the state."

"Preparation is the key to safety, and we encourage communities to factor in the possibility of a destructive cyclone or major flood into their pre-season planning." said Mr Davidson.
Quoting Neapolitan:

That "trend" of which you speak is called "winter". It's a recurring phenomenon long-term climate records show happens on average once a year. ;-)

Click for larger image:

See No Science. Speak No Science. Hear No Science.


Winter is just another of those "global cycles", and is well understood.

But find any mention, in recorded history, of two winters in a row having that kind of coverage.

The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once.

THAT'S the trend I'm talking about. Snow cover in all 50 states at once sounds "unprecedented" to me...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Been watching that in the news and via blogs from Oz. Pretty amazing, and pretty devastating. I know a lot of people are wishing you guys all the best...

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.

Here is a 3min slideshow of photos from the Qld flooding.

Austrailans have so far donated over $32million towards the flood appeal.

Further more, in parts of Victoria are bracing for flooding from the same system that dumped trumendous amounts of rain on Qld. Some towns have been put on high alert for flash flooding and river/creek flooding.
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.


What was the inland tsunami caused from, Earthquake? been sort of keeping up but had not seen that
Quoting Ossqss:
Lets have a closer look at those surface stations.

http://surfacestations.org/

Then lets listen to the, soon to follow, well tamed scientific explanation of how they have a cold bias and the temps should be higher :)

I would definitely trust a pack of witch-hunting amateur volunteers led by a non-degreed TV weatherman/self-professed "skeptic" with performing a neutral, fair, balanced, and wholly scientific assessment of "official" temperature measuring devices.
Rome (CNN) -- Mount Etna rumbled Wednesday, sending lava down its side. Italian vulcanologists are monitoring the Sicilian volcano, they said Thursday.
Etna began tremors Tuesday night, the Italian Institute of Vulcanology said.
They reached their peak Wednesday morning, and lava flowed down the eastern rim on Wednesday night.


isn't that where kronos is?
Quoting EnergyMoron:


Good night Gro.

Actually, a very good night... actually found a point of agreement with Nea (you know you need to emphasize the positive).

And...

Het was echte koud gisteren avond, zoals je had gezedgt. Het tuin is nu "Zwart Dood". Herinnerin je dat in het 14st eeuw of zo?

je ben juist... het is koud.

Te veel "anti-freeze" mischien?

Wel te rustig...



For those of you interested in a quick way to translate the Dutch passages into English.

Go to http://translate.google.com/#

Cut and paste the passage you are interested in and the translation appears as if by magic.

Takes less than a minute.


№ 422
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe this will warm some of you... ;-)

We've previously posted the following list showing the ratio of record daily highs to record daily lows observed at about 1,800 weather stations across the CONUS from January 1960 through September 2009:

1960s: 0.77 to 1
1970s: 0.78 to 1
1980s: 1.14 to 1
1990s: 1.36 to 1
2000s: 2.04 to 1

Now, according to figures from the NCDC, 19,213 daily record highs were set or tied in 2010, compared to 8,374 record daily lows:

2010: 2.29 to 1

Pretty incredible. Obviously if the climate were neither warming nor cooling, the ratios would be expected to be pretty close to 1:1. If it were cooling as some have theorized, the ratios would likely be reversed (that is, one would expect there to be more record lows than record highs). Of course, the ratio for 2011 may not be as extreme as 2010's, but it will be interesting to see the stats at the end of the decade. If things go as most climate scientists believe, that CONUS ratio for this decade should be somewhere close to 2.8 or 2.9 to 1. If, on the other hand, The Great Global Cooldown gets underway, as a few have theorized is about to happen, the high/low ratio should have a higher number to the right. But as they say: we'll see.


Actually...No. The ratio favors record highs because the average temperature in 2010 was above the average of the entire historical record. If temperatures were to remain flat for the next several years the ratio would not be 1:1, but still greater than 1:1, as temperatures would still remain above the historical average. Even if temperatures decrease in the near future, the ratio would be expected to favor record highs as long as the average temperature exceeds the historical average. For there to be more record lows than record highs, the average temperature would have to drop to near or below the historical average.

In short the ratio of record highs to record lows says something about current temperatures relative to the historical mean, but does not reveal much concerning the trend.

Quoting AussieStorm:

We are Austrailan, we are tough hardy people.
We look after our friends and neighbours, anyone, when times get tough or rough. We are always willing to give our fellow man a hand when needed.
It may take a few weeks to a few years for the effected areas to get back on there feet but they will.

Here is a 3min slideshow of photos from the Qld flooding.

Austrailans have so far donated over $32million towards the flood appeal.
I hope there will not be any more weather systems that bring more rain to the devastated areas..Sending prayers your way Aussie.
Quoting bassis:


What was the inland tsunami caused from, Earthquake? been sort of keeping up but had not seen that

The inland tsunami was caused by 8inches of rain falling in the ranges east of Toowoomba. On Tuesday alone they had 14inchs of rain.
Quoting AussieStorm:

The inland tsunami was caused by 8inches of rain falling in the ranges east of Toowoomba. On Tuesday alone they had 14inchs of rain.


That slide show speaks for itself.
Quoting hcubed:


Winter is just another of those "global cycles", and is well understood.

But find any mention, in recorded history, of two winters in a row having that kind of coverage.

The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once.

THAT'S the trend I'm talking about. Snow cover in all 50 states at once sounds "unprecedented" to me...

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...

By the way, you wrote, "The map you chose shows the rarity of snow in all 50 states, especially at once." I suppose that's one way to look at it. Another way would be to say the map shows that on average it snows every year in every state but Florida.
Quoting hydrus:
I hope there will not be any more weather systems that bring more rain to the devastated areas..Sending prayers your way Aussie.

Unfortunately there is a chance of a cycone developing off the NE Qld coast but is expected to track east away from the coast. There is also Cyclone near New Caledonia that could move close to the Qld coast.
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...
Good morning Neap...Please be sure to tell the folks in Florida that if they do in fact need any snow to water there plants with, or to keep them from feelin left out, they can have some of mine.....There is plenty..:)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Unfortunately there is a chance of a cycone developing off the NE Qld coast but is expected to track east away from the coast. There is also Cyclone near New Caledonia that could move close to the Qld coast.
I saw the footage. It is hard for me to imagine that it could get worse...I have been through a couple of floods. I almost was killed in one of them...Dangerous stuff.
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is the statistical coldest week of January, which is itself the statistical coldest month of the year (in the northern hemisphere). To have at least a little snow on the ground simultaneously in 49 states is unusual, perhaps, but it's nowhere near unprecedented; after all, as you yourself stated, it happened just last year...
Ummm...

"The latest snow storm to smack New York has made a name for itself. Thanks to the storm, 49 states out of all 50 have snow in them right now in the United States.

The last time that happened was last year when all states except Hawaii had snow and in 1977 when all states except South Carolina had snow.

But today, it's Florida who is the odd man out.

Since Tuesday the National Weather Service has reported that 49 out of the 50 states in the country has snow on the ground somewhere, a rare phenomenon.

There have been no reports of all 50 states having snow at once
"

January 13th, 2011
http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/01/13/snow-in-49-states-snow-in-all-49-states-right-now/

Maybe they are mistaken? Sounds more than "unusual, perhaps". Nice attempt at downplay, though ;-) And, wow, how the heck did GA, FL, and NC get snow and SC didn't in 1977? Whacky.
Nice twisting motion down near Panama, just what the hell is it think its doing.
467. DEKRE
Here in Quebec we are now for the last two months well above average with hardly any snow - about same as last year.

To give you an idea, this morning people fron North FL reported here temperatures of 23 °F, we had -2°C, which is 28 °F

Normals in the morning are -16 °C, or 3°F!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I would definitely trust a pack of witch-hunting amateur volunteers led by a non-degreed TV weatherman/self-professed "skeptic" with performing a neutral, fair, balanced, and wholly scientific assessment of "official" temperature measuring devices.


Right..... They photo-shop all of the pictures to make them look bad also. Gheeze Bjorn!

Dekre thats called a pattern shift
Doesn't mean the cold is gone, it's just somewhere else
471. DEKRE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Doesn't mean the cold is gone, it's just somewhere else


I agree
This is the real point about "Global Warming", not the small increase in temperature
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
In short the ratio of record highs to record lows says something about current temperatures relative to the historical mean, but does not reveal much concerning the trend.

So to summarize your comment: increasing warmth is no sign of increasing warmth? Got it! ;-)

Seriously, though, those record highs (and lows) aren't based on means; they're not anomalies; they're not in comparison to any baseline. They are, instead, absolutes. As each new high (and low) record is set, it moves the standard, meaning it takes an even hotter (or colder) temp to exceed the old record. The fact that each passing decade shows an increasing number of those record highs (and a decreasing number of those record lows) is very telling, don't you think?
Quoting RitaEvac:
Nice twisting motion down near Panama, just what the hell is it think its doing.
Lol..Maybe it will bring some needed rain to Belize.
Quoting Neapolitan:

So to summarize your comment: increasing warmth is no sign of increasing warmth? Got it! ;-)

Seriously, though, those record highs (and lows) aren't based on means; they're not anomalies; they're not in comparison to any baseline. They are, instead, absolutes. As each new high (and low) record is set, it moves the standard, meaning it takes an even hotter (or colder) temp to exceed the old record. The fact that each passing decade shows an increasing number of those record highs (and a decreasing number of those record lows) is very telling, don't you think?


Actually, to summarize, a greater than 1:1 trend in record highs over record lows is not necessarily indicative of an upward trend as you suggested, but simply indicates that the current temperatures are above the historical mean.

The increase in ratio is a better indicator of trend admittedly. However, by comparing decades only, more recent trends are harder to see. There seems to be a much greater warming trend from the late 70s to the mid to late 90s than there has been since. Comparing temperatures a decade at a time downplays this.
That sounds wacky to me too. Especially since South Carolina had 3 snow events in Jan 1977.

And Hawaii gets snow every year. Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea are snow-covered every winter without exception.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Ummm...

"The latest snow storm to smack New York has made a name for itself. Thanks to the storm, 49 states out of all 50 have snow in them right now in the United States.

The last time that happened was last year when all states except Hawaii had snow and in 1977 when all states except South Carolina had snow.

But today, it's Florida who is the odd man out.

Since Tuesday the National Weather Service has reported that 49 out of the 50 states in the country has snow on the ground somewhere, a rare phenomenon.

There have been no reports of all 50 states having snow at once
"

January 13th, 2011
http://www.longislandpress.com/2011/01/13/snow-in-49-states-snow-in-all-49-states-right-now/

Maybe they are mistaken? Sounds more than "unusual, perhaps". Nice attempt at downplay, though ;-) And, wow, how the heck did GA, FL, and NC get snow and SC didn't in 1977? Whacky.
Current Conditions

Mid City Station, New Orleans, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 0 sec ago

Clear

36.7 °F

Clear
Windchill: 32 °F
Humidity: 55%
Dew Point: 22 °F
Wind: 5.0 mph from the West
Wind Gust: 7.0 mph

A Dayquil Day.

zzzzzzzz...........
All 50 states have had snow on the ground at the same time see here:

http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/us/2010/February/Rare-Snowy-Weather-Impacts-South/