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Major flooding in Oregon, heavy snows in Washington and California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:07 PM GMT on January 19, 2012

A major atmospheric pattern change is underway, and the Pacific storm door is open. A major winter storm supported by an atmospheric river of high moisture is pounding Oregon, California, and Washington today, bringing record flooding, heavy snows, freezing rain, and damaging winds. The ridge of high pressure that had brought much of Northern California its driest winter period on record during the past two months has retreated to the northwest towards Alaska, allowing the subtropical jet stream to dive underneath the ridge. The subtropical jet is bringing a plume of moisture called an "atmospheric river" to the coast between Northern California and Southwestern Washington, resulting in heavy rains near the coast and snow measured in feet to the mountains. Heavy rains of 2 - 5 inches have affected much of Western Oregon over the past 24 hours, and the Marys River in Philomath has risen to its highest flood on record. Additional rains of 1 - 3 inches are expected today over the region, and damaging major flooding is expected along several Oregon rivers.


Figure 1. Radar-estimated precipitation for Oregon shows a wide swath of greater than 8 inches of rain has fallen since January 16 over Western Oregon.


Figure 2. The Marys River in Philomath, Oregon crested at its highest flood height on record this morning. Image credit: NOAA.

Heavy snow, ice storm hit Seattle
Yesterday in Seattle, Washington, 6.8" of snow fell, making it their greatest 24-hour snowfall since November 1985. Winds gusting to 85 mph in the mountains to the east of Seattle closed some ski areas, but heavy snows of 38" in 36 hours fell at White Pass, and the this weekend will see the best skiing of winter in Washington. The problem will be getting to the ski areas--an ice storm this morning has closed the Sea-Tac airport and snarled traffic.

Record dry spell ends for California and Nevada
Skiiers, take heart: Tahoe's Ski Season From Hell will end this weekend. A series of three snowstorms will pound the Sierra Mountains of California and Nevada, bringing the first heavy snows since November. According to Tahoe weather historian Mark McLaughlin, December 2011 was the second driest in the Sierra Mountains since record keeping began in 1920. He based this on an aggregate of data from eight locations from Highway 50 in the south to Mt. Shasta in the north in the central and northern Sierra Nevada. This winter has seen the longest winter dry spell in history in Reno, Nevada (56 days). The dry spell ended on January 16, when .03" of precipitation fell. The previous longest dry spell was 54 days, ending on January 24, 1961. Farther to the south in Minden, Nevada, the record dry spell ended at 72 days on January 16. Nevada's Carson River Basin snowpack is at 8% of normal, compared to 224% last year at this time. In San Francisco, the first significant rains since November 20 are expected to begin later today. The past two months have seen just 0.26" of rain in the city, making it the longest two-month winter dry period in the city since records began in 1850, according to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt. Fresno, Califonia has seen no rain at all since November 20, and that dry spell should end today or Friday. Today's storm in Northern California will be followed by a new storm on Friday, which will bring 100 mph wind gusts and 1 - 2 feet of snow to the Sierras (2 - 3 inches of rain equivalent). A third storm with more snow is expected on Sunday night.


Figure 3. Satellite estimated water vapor in the atmospheric expressed as how much rain would fall if the entire amount of vapor were condensed in a vertical column. Where this "Total Precipitable Water" exceeds about 25.4 mm (1 inch), heavy precipitation can occur. An "Atmospheric River" extending from Hawaii with very moist air harboring precipitable water values near 1.5 inches (38 mm, light blue colors) is impacting the coast near the California/Oregon border, bringing heavy rains and snows. Image credit: University of Wisconsin SSEC.

I'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters
Snowstorm in Tacoma
Snowstorm in Tacoma
First big snowstorm in Tacoma since the mid 90's. 9
Overshadowed
Overshadowed
The overarching snowy limbs somehow remind me of God...
Young Sentinal
Young Sentinal
Juvenile Bald Eagle perches over the Skagit River. Wonder what he thinks of this week's heavy snowfall.
Distant
Distant
Gonna be a great cloud watchin' day

Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

just rain here in longview now we got hit pretty good most snow in town is gone now
Thanks Dr Jeff!
I have family in Bellingham WA who got a foot of snow and some 4 foot drifts with the winds.. this should make for some great skiing in Utah!
Thanks Jeff...
Increasing solar activity increases rate of satellite debris reentry.

Page 4.

Link

Seems like We could experience real Global Warming....

Russia warns West it risks war over Syria, Iran
Posted on January 19, 2012
January 19, 2012 – MOSCOW – The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has warned outside encouragement of anti-government uprisings in the Middle East and north Africa could lead to “a very big war that will cause suffering not only to countries in the region but also to states far beyond its boundaries.” Mr. Lavrov’s annual news conference on Wednesday was largely a critique of Western policies in Iran and Syria, which he said could lead to a spiral of violence. He said Russia would use its position on the United Nations Security Council to veto any UN authorisation of military strikes against forces loyal to the government of Syria’s President, Bashar al-Assad. The UN has called for the government to end a crackdown on opposition demonstrators, which Arab League monitors say resulted in hundreds of deaths over the past month. “If someone conceives the idea of using force at any cost – and I’ve already heard calls for sending some Arab troops to Syria – we are unlikely to be able to prevent this,” Mr. Lavrov said. “But this should be done on their own initiative and should remain on their conscience. They won’t get any authorization from the Security Council.” Mr. Lavrov said a military strike against Iran would be a “catastrophe”’ and that sanctions proposed against Tehran had been couched in terms of nuclear non-proliferation but were “seriously intended to have a smothering effect on the Iranian economy.” -SMH

Strange Noises: Are they UFOs, thunder, HAARP or a hoax? Link

Thu Jan 19 2012 12:01
Strange Noises: Are they UFOs, thunder, HAARP or a hoax?

The online community have been spooked by a series of videos uploaded to YouTube and other video sharing websites which appear to show loud noises rumbling apparently from beneath the ground.

People from a wide ranges of cities and countries have uploaded videos.

While some appear to be relatively obvious hoaxes, others remain unexplained and ideas as to what the noises might be range from the mundane to the arguably ridiculous.

Some people on social networking sites, online forums and video sharing sites have suggested the strange noises might be the work of HAARP or High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program. HAARP is a US-based research project that studies the ionosphere - a part of the Earth's upper atmosphere - and it has regularly been the subject of conspiracy theorists' discussions.

Other people have proposed the sounds might be being caused by cloaked UFOs or Fracking, a controversial method for extracting natural gas from the ground.

Nick Pope, who used to investigate UFOs for the MoD, believes that although there is unlikely to be one single cause, something more mundane will certainly explain some of the sounds.

He said: "One possibility is that we're dealing with some sort of phenomenon involving thunder. Sound can behave in very funny ways.

"Another option might be power lines. Again, under some circumstances we know power lines can make a humming and crackling sound. That may well explain some of these events."

Some have also suggested the apparent atmospheric rumblings might be the product of nearby freight trains or high-speed rail links, though it is not known whether any of the videos were filmed near railway lines.
Solar Status: Chance of M-Class flares from rotating sun spot
Posted on January 19, 2012

January 19, 2012 – CHANCE OF AURORAS: NOAA forecasters estimate a 15% to 20% chance of polar geomagnetic storms during the next 24 hours in response to a possible glancing blow from a CME. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras. Earth’s atmosphere has been puffing up in response to increasing levels of UV radiation from sunspots. This is good news for satellite operators, because a puffed up atmosphere helps clean up low-Earth orbit. Meanwhile, sunspot 1401 poses a threat for some M-class solar flares. –Space Watch

Solar wind
speed: 351.2 km/sec
density: 5.0 protons/cm3




Ethel should be able to reach Category 1 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Scale tomorrow.

Funso is expected to hang around and not expected to move much. Under ideal conditions, Funso will strengthen into a possible dangerous cyclone being the equivalent of a Category 3 hurricane.
Quoting Patrap:
Pat are you lost? That's not NOLA.
A lot more rain and snow on the way for the Pacific NW.

Wow im not that late this time lol.

TC Ethel looks nice
Seattle Snow Pics


Disasters cost $366 billion in 2011: UN
by Staff Writers TerraDaily
Geneva (AFP) Jan 18, 2012

Natural disasters such as the huge earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan caused a record $366 billion (285 million euros) damage in 2011, the UN disaster risk reduction agency UNISDR said on Wednesday.

A total of 29,782 people were killed in 302 disasters last year, the body said.

Storms and floods accounted for up to 70 percent of catastrophes but earthquakes were the biggest killer.

Figures released by the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) and the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction showed quakes claimed 20,943 lives, most of them in Japan.

The earthquake and tsunami that sparked the Fukushima nuclear plant catastrophe in March was also the costliest disaster, causing damage worth $210 billion.

This was followed by the floods that hit Thailand from August to December which cost the country $40 billion.

The number of disasters was down on 2010, when 385 occurred, according to CRED figures.

However 2011 practically saw a tripling in costs from $123.9 billion recorded in the previous 12 months.

CRED director Debarati Guha-Sapir said: "It was notable last year that many of the disasters were in high and middle-income countries which have the resources for better disaster prevention."

In addition to the Japan earthquake, the centre cited the floods in Brazil in January, the quake that hit New Zealand in February, and Hurricane Irene in the United States in August and September.

The Brazil floods were the deadliest in the country's history, taking 900 lives.

Other major disasters included the October earthquake in Turkey and the tropical storm Sendong that hit the Philippines last month, claiming 1,430 lives.

This was the second highest death toll for disasters in 2011 after the 19,846 who died in Japan.

"The Japan earthquake and the accompanying tsunami is a reminder to us all that we cannot afford to ignore the lessons of history no matter how forgotton," said UNISDR chief Margareta Wahlstrom.

"The many major cities located in seismic zones need to take seriously the probability of return events even if many years have passed since the last seismic event of major magnitude.

"Unless we prepare for the worst, then many earthquake-prone urban areas around the world are destined to see even greater loss of life in the future as more and more people move to cities."

In total 206 million people were affected by disasters last year. This includes 106 million hit by floods and 60 million by drought, mainly in the Horn of Africa.

Guha-Sapir said droughts and famines were rarely "spectacular" events but caused a massive number of deaths which often went uncounted.

"Reliable statistics and data should be a priority for better and more timely preventative action," the expert said.

NOAA just released their December 2011 State of the Climate report and their Global Stats report. Dr. Masters may have more on this in one of his blog entries, so I'll keep this short, and only include a few tidbits:

--Globally, 2011 was the 11th warmest year on record (held in check by La Nina).

--2011 was the second wettest year on record behind first-place 2010.

--2011 was the 35th consecutive year, since 1976, that the yearly global temperature was above average.

--Including 2011, all eleven years of the 21st century so far (2001-2011) rank among the 13 warmest in the 132-year period of record. Only one year during the 20th century, 1998, was warmer than 2011. (Another way to look at it: 2011 was the second coolest year of the 21st century, although tied with the second warmest year of the 20th century.)

--There were officially 14 billion-dollar climate disasters in 2011, with one more--the pre-Halloween Northeast snowstorm--still being analyzed.

Uh-oh

Uh-oh
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Pat are you lost? That's not NOLA.


Pat was not sure were he was when he woke up this morning. ... He was pretty sure it was not NOLA. ;-)
whyzit so quiet...got 2 tropical cyclones and its this quiet lol...
Man..anybody been on Classic Wunderground lately? Sure looks different when you been on the upgraded version for a year...
Quoting SPLbeater:
whyzit so quiet...got 2 tropical cyclones and its this quiet lol...
Well, one cyclone is out in the middle of nowhere, and the other is, basically, close to nowhere, although I'd imagine those between Madagascar and the eastern side of Africa would differ on the opinion. And no REAL disasters happening in the US at this time, other than a minimal snowmageggan in Washington state.
Quiet can be nice sometimes.
All those red dots



And all that ice still manages to form



Quoting HouGalv08:
Well, one cyclone is out in the middle of nowhere, and the other is, basically, close to nowhere, although I'd imagine those between Madagascar and the eastern side of Africa would differ on the opinion. And no REAL disasters happening in the US at this time, other than a minimal snowmageggan in Washington state.
Quiet can be nice sometimes.


THE quiet before the storm.

The blog needs at least one "the end is nigh" every day.

sorry I could not resist. :)

Link

The link is to the NOHRSC snow cover picture. Less snow then normal.

Every one enjoy the day.
http://www.cocorahs.org/Maps/

Now has google maps for viewing stations down to the houses
WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
Quoting RitaEvac:
All those red dots



And all that ice still manages to form





if only that ice was as thick as [fill in the blank].
Quoting FatPenguin:


if only that ice was as thick as [fill in the blank].


12 inches
Sea fog expected to return to TX/LA coasts this evening and into weekend
Vegetation

November 2000



November 2011

Carbon Monoxide

December 2000


December 2002


December 2004


December 2006


December 2008


December 2010


December 2011

Quoting TampaSpin:#26
cheers.. we've almost reached the lower boundary of the average standard deviation.. almost
Quoting Minnemike:
cheers.. we've almost reached the lower boundary of the average standard deviation.. almost



Shooooo...be very very quite......don't tell'm..LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:

That image you showed in #26 is from January 3. Here's one from yesterday showing that a lot of ice has been lost over the past several days, and extent is now lower than it was on this date during the record low year of 2007:

Uh-oh
Long range GFS continues to ping at a major Arctic outbreak coming down the plains first week of February.
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH HEAVY SNOW...HEAVY RAINS...SIGNIFICANT ICING
AND VERY STRONG WINDS...


Excerpts:

Snowfall, inches

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0 ESTIMATED 50-55
TIMBERLANE 45.0 ESTIMATED 45-55
BLAZED ALDER 35.0 ESTIMATED
MOUNT HOOD TEST 35.0 ESTIMATED 35-40
GOVERNMENT CAMP 34.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0 ESTIMATED 32-36
NORTH FORK 31.0
CLACKAMAS LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
CLEAR LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
DALY LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
GREENPOINT 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35
LITTLE MEADOWS 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35
MUD RIDGE 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35


THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MONTANA...ALL OF IDAHO...WESTERN
WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN WASATCH AND
UINTA RANGES OF UTAH. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO A LARGE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Long range GFS continues to ping at a major Arctic outbreak coming down the plains first week of February.


no surprise seein the NAO is probably going to be very very wek in positive stage
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES WITH HEAVY SNOW...HEAVY RAINS...SIGNIFICANT ICING
AND VERY STRONG WINDS...


Excerpts:

Snowfall, inches

...OREGON...
MT. HOOD MEADOWS 50.0 ESTIMATED 50-55
TIMBERLANE 45.0 ESTIMATED 45-55
BLAZED ALDER 35.0 ESTIMATED
MOUNT HOOD TEST 35.0 ESTIMATED 35-40
GOVERNMENT CAMP 34.0
BEAR GRASS 32.0 ESTIMATED 32-36
NORTH FORK 31.0
CLACKAMAS LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
CLEAR LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
DALY LAKE 30.0 ESTIMATED
GREENPOINT 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35
LITTLE MEADOWS 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35
MUD RIDGE 30.0 ESTIMATED 30-35


THIS WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN UNITED STATES FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON AND INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MONTANA...ALL OF IDAHO...WESTERN
WYOMING...NORTHEASTERN NEVADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN WASATCH AND
UINTA RANGES OF UTAH. A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING OFF
THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO A LARGE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK.


Looks to be setting up for a perfect snow/ice pack in the rockies and plains, just in time for the Arctic Plunge come the 1st of February, gonna be some serious cold if that snowpack is in place as it comes down
Morning photos of the Delta 4 scheduled to launch this evening.


Good Lawd, GFS showing a huge 1040mb ridge off the Pacific coast plowing Deep Arctic Siberian frigid air down into the plains....
Expect major Jet Stream pattern change come the 28th as the northern jet is coming straight south down the pike from Alaska and Yukon.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Morning photos of the Delta 4 scheduled to launch this evening.



I'll be watching it, camera at the ready...
Quoting Neapolitan:

I'll be watching it, camera at the ready...


Hope to see it also as it heads in a ~SE direction.
Cold front just to the north, skies clearing from the west. Spfld, IL - 21, Litchfield, IL - 27, StL - 30. Some light snow, freezing rain possible Fri. afternoon.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Expect major Jet Stream pattern change come the 28th as the northern jet is coming straight south down the pike from Alaska and Yukon.


I don't think I would give the GFS any credience to that right now as the models are having a hard time pinning a forecast 5 days in advance due to this lingering La-Nina. If any thing it's going to get even warmer. I wouldn't be surprised to start seeing 90's popping up in TX & FL over the next couple of weeks.

Hopefully we can get some rain in FL soon as brush fires are really becoming a problem now. We don't need another 1998 again.


Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Pat are you lost? That's not NOLA.


Nope.

They have this thing called traveling?

Like when ycd0108 and his Better Half came here during Carnival from Vancouver last year.

That was fer dem.

30 minutes ago:



now:



Look at the western eyewall, it now is covered in firing deep convection with a slight gap in convection in between the two eyewalls....I'm just throwing the possibility for EI out there.

For comparison sake, here is Funso 3 hours ago, and here is Funso 4 hours ago.
Gottcha Pat. And thanks!
deltas are a thrill good viewing beeline banana river
As someone living western Oregon, I can testify that it really is as floody as Jeff says. And the rivers haven't even crested yet.

The map below shows just how many of our local highways are flooded or closed for other reasons. In fact, all highways from the Willamette Valley to the central Oregon coast are now closed.


Graphic from ODOT website tripcheck.com.



Both systems are continuing to show signs of organization. However, Funso is expected to strengthen very gradually, if not rapidly. Meteo France expects this to reach a strength of "Intense Tropical Cyclone". In 5 Days, Funso should continue to meander in the Mozambique Channel.


75kts-85kts my best guess as to actual windspeed.

Tropical Cyclone Ethel(07S)

oops, forgot to look at the time lol. this is 12 hours old
Quoting SPLbeater:

Tropical Cyclone Ethel(07S)

oops, forgot to look at the time lol. this is 12 hours old




Not very impressive, despite the amazingly favourable conditions.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Morning photos of the Delta 4 scheduled to launch this evening.



That looks a lot like a giant rabbit. This giant rabbit:

Two very impressive storms in the South Indian Ocean.

Funso is probably the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane. It will probably hit Mozambique very hard.


Ethan is a strong tropical storm and shouldn't be a threat to land.
With tornado season rapidly approaching, there's this very promising bit of forecasting news:

Scientists Make Progress in Assessing Tornado Seasons: Study Offers First Step in Short-Term Forecasting
from Lowercal' current entry

Rocket/Payload:  A Delta IV Medium+ (5,4) configuration will launch the Air Force’s Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS-4) mission.



Date/Launch Time/Site:  Thursday, Jan. 19, 2012, from Space Launch Complex-37 at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. The 93-minute launch window opens at 7:38 p.m. (EST).

Mission Description: The WGS-4 mission is the fourth installment of the Wideband Global SATCOM (WGS) system. The WGS satellites are important elements of a new high-capacity satellite communications system providing enhanced communications capabilities to America’s troops in the field for the next decade and beyond. WGS enables more robust and flexible execution of Command and Control, Communications Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance (C4ISR), as well as battle management and combat support information functions. WGS-4 is the first Block II satellite and augments the existing service of the WGS-1, WGS-2 and WGS-3 satellites by providing additional information broadcast capabilities.

Viewing the Launch Online: A live simulcast of the launch broadcast will begin at approximately 7:17 p.m. EST.
Checking out that article Nea. This conclusion is not surprising.

"... they identified two parameters that seemed closely associated with monthly tornado activity: rain associated with strong updrafts; and helicity, which measures the tendency of winds to spin those updrafts."

The following observation might have to do with tropical cyclones.

"The index correlated significantly with the observed numbers of tornadoes in all months except September and October."

This bit does sound interesting, though.

"Moreover, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) system for making seasonal forecasts, known as the Climate Forecast System (CFS), was able to use the index to forecast monthly tornado activity with some success up to a month in advance. This success, especially notable in June, is the first evidence for the predictability of monthly tornado activity.

"Harold Brooks, a NOAA tornado expert not involved in the study said the forecast technique worked where others have failed because the CFS produced higher resolution results. “The real breakthrough is that CFS is skillful enough at the right scale,” he said"

The real story seems to be the CFS.


Evening ya'll.... I'm reading some, but not posting so much.

Interesting to see so much activity in the Mozambique Channel this year. This is not one of the more common patterns... And this is the equivalent our our July, right? I always think of February as their big month down there. To be on E already is preeety busy...
Lot's of interesting articles on that website, Nea. Thanks for posting the link.

I'll flog AGW with this one.

"Social scientists are struggling with a perplexing earth-science question: as the power of evidence showing manmade global warming is rising, why do opinion polls suggest public belief in the findings is wavering? Part of the answer may be that some people are too easily swayed by the easiest, most irrational piece of evidence at hand: their own estimation of the day%u2019s temperature.

"In three separate studies, researchers affiliated with Columbia University%u2019s Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia, and found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. A new paper describing the studies appears in the current issue of the journal Psychological Science."

The moral seems to be: All climate is local weather.

Which is reminiscent of Tip O'Neil's observation: All politics is local.

My own position is that global warming is just a political problem now. The science is stout.
Today, NOAA Updated the number of Billion dollar disasters in 2011: They added 2, with a third pending.

"NOAA has identified two additional events in 2011 that caused an economic impact of $1 billion or greater, bringing the total number of major billion-dollar weather and climate disasters to 14 (not including the pre-Halloween snowstorm in the Northeast, which is still being analyzed)." Link

-Tropical Storm Lee ($1 Billion)
-A Rockies and Midwest severe weather outbreak($1.3 Billion)

It'll be interesting to see whether or not Lee gets retired.
Quoting Ameister12:
Two very impressive storms in the South Indian Ocean.

Funso is probably the equivalent of a category 1 hurricane. It will probably hit Mozambique very hard.


Ethan is a strong tropical storm and shouldn't be a threat to land.


I disagree, Funso is probably a category 2 hurricane atm.

Quoting HurrikanEB:
NOAA Updated the number of Billion dollar disasters in 2011: They added 2, with a third pending.

"NOAA has identified two additional events in 2011 that caused an economic impact of $1 billion or greater, bringing the total number of major billion-dollar weather and climate disasters to 14 (not including the pre-Halloween snowstorm in the Northeast, which is still being analyzed)." Link

-Tropical Storm Lee ($1 Billion)
-A Rockies and Midwest severe weather outbreak($1.3 Billion)

It'll be interesting to see whether or not Lee gets retired.
Lee deserves to get retired.Even though they didn't retire Dolly...
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 19 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Funso (990 hPa) located at 18.2S 39.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.0/12 HRS

Gale Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
60 NM radius from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 18.4S 38.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 18.9S 37.6E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 18.4S 37.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
72 HRS: 18.7S 39.0E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

Cloud pattern has consistently improved along the day with very deep convection flaring and wrapping around the center. Europeans numerical weather prediction models (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) are in good agreement for a globally southwestwards forecast track up to 36-48 hours. On the northern edge of a subtropical ridge and then a eastwards to southeastwards track with a steering flow directed by the equatorial ridge to the northeast before a new westwards turn at the end of the forecast period under th e steering influence of a subtropical ridge that should build south of the channel.

Over this track, environmental conditions are very favorable for regular further development with a good low level inflow on the both sides, weak vertical wind shear, well sustained by two upper level outflow channels, heat potential is strong over 29-30C sea surface temperature. The intensification process is held off between 36-72 hours as the system should move little near the Mozambican coasts. This slow motion over the same waters could be an inhibiting factors.

Within the next 48 hours, the system should get closer of the Mozambican coasts near the Quelimane region with a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time ...Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:00 AM UTC..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lee deserves to get retired.Even though they didn't retire Dolly...


True. It wouldnt really make sense to retire one but not the other. Except, maybe it's just because i live in the northeast, but i feel like overall Lee got more press coverage than Dolly. did it seem like that in other places?
Cyclone Warning: Class 2 is in force for Rodriques Island


During a cyclone warning class ll

Verify that your emergency kit contains all essential items

  • Store sufficient amount of drinking water
  • Continue to monitor cyclone bulletins on Radio/TV.

    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
    FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    22:00 PM RET January 19 2012
    =======================================

    At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (990 hPa) located at 17.4S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 13 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24 HRS

    Storm Force Winds
    ================
    20 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    60 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    70 NM radius from the center extending up to 90 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.3S 64.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 19.3S 64.1E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 22.6S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 25.8S 62.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    1618 PM UTC F18 microwave imagery confirms the improving of satellite feature. Ethel keeps on intensifying.

    Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a southwestwards to south-southwestwards track over the next 2 days then a southwards recurving motion. On this track the system should move over or near Rodrigues island Friday late or Saturday early.

    Within the next 36 to 48 hours, environment remains rather favorable for further development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve day after day. The system should close to it speak intensity as it passed near Rodrigues.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
  • Quoting yqt1001:


    I disagree, Funso is probably a category 2 hurricane atm.


    I think you're right. Funso is rapidly intensifying.
    Quoting BahaHurican:
    Evening ya'll.... I'm reading some, but not posting so much.

    Interesting to see so much activity in the Mozambique Channel this year. This is not one of the more common patterns... And this is the equivalent our our July, right? I always think of February as their big month down there. To be on E already is preeety busy...
    We are actually on F Funso
    Quoting HurrikanEB:


    True. It wouldnt really make sense to retire one but not the other. Except, maybe it's just because i live in the northeast, but i feel like overall Lee got more press coverage than Dolly. did it seem like that in other places?
    They really didn't give Dolly as much coverage at first because they though it was going to be just another T.S.But it manage to intensify to a cat 2,and at that moment it started getting coverage.
    Quoting bappit:
    Lot's of interesting articles on that website, Nea. Thanks for posting the link.

    I'll flog AGW with this one.

    "Social scientists are struggling with a perplexing earth-science question: as the power of evidence showing manmade global warming is rising, why do opinion polls suggest public belief in the findings is wavering? Part of the answer may be that some people are too easily swayed by the easiest, most irrational piece of evidence at hand: their own estimation of the day%u2019s temperature.

    "In three separate studies, researchers affiliated with Columbia University%u2019s Center for Research on Environmental Decisions (CRED) surveyed about 1,200 people in the United States and Australia, and found that those who thought the current day was warmer than usual were more likely to believe in and feel concern about global warming than those who thought the day was unusually cold. A new paper describing the studies appears in the current issue of the journal Psychological Science."

    The moral seems to be: All climate is local weather.

    Which is reminiscent of Tip O'Neil's observation: All politics is local.

    My own position is that global warming is just a political problem now. The science is stout.
    That's interesting, all right. It reminds me of a similar study--and I'll link to it if I can find it--that said people who live in warmer climates (tropical, desert) are more liekly to agree that the planet is warming than those who live in more temperate or polar regions.

    Anyway, I would agree with your position.
    Mission Status Center
    By Justin Ray

    Welcome to Spaceflight Now's live coverage of the Delta 4 rocket launching the WGS 4 military communications satellite. Text updates will appear automatically; there is no need to reload the page. Follow us on Twitter.




    0005 GMT (7:05 p.m. EST Thurs.)
    The ULA launch team and the mission management group are guiding the countdown from the Delta Operations Center, located about 9,200 feet from the pad. The engineers overseeing the rocket and ground systems are located on the third floor and the Mission Directors Center room is on the fourth floor. Both rooms have a view of pad 37B and the Delta 4 rocket out their windows. Other rooms are also set up for engineering support.

    The DOC was formerly built to support the Titan-Centaur program but was refurbished to support Delta 4.
    Hurricane Dolly wasn't retired because it's primary impacts were in Mexico, and we all know how they are.
    So I don't know how many one here follow things like this. Today megaupload got raided by authorities, and now Anonymous is on a DoS hacking spree shutting down everything.

    Link
    the whole 'retiring names' business has gotten kinda silly....it's just about lost whatever impact it had...it really doesn't have much meaning anymore...I think they should just stop retiring any names...
    Quoting presslord:
    the whole 'retiring names' business has gotten kinda silly....it's just about lost whatever impact it had...it really doesn't have much meaning anymore...I think they should just stop retiring any names...

    It's not about what impact it has, it's so that the public doesn't get confused with names and to avoid legal issues and other stuff.

    "Whenever a hurricane has had a major impact, any country affected by the storm can request that the name of the hurricane be "retired" by agreement of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Retiring a name actually means that it cannot be reused for at least 10 years, to facilitate historic references, legal actions, insurance claim activities, etc. and avoid public confusion with another storm of the same name. If that happens, a like gender name is selected in English, Spanish or French for Atlantic Storms."
    Rocket: Delta 4
    Payload: WGS 4
    Date: Jan. 19, 2012
    Window: 7:38 to 9:11 p.m. EST
    Site: SLC-37B, Cape Canaveral, Florida
    Feed: SES 2, Transp. 21, C-band, 87° West

    Quoting Patrap:
    Mission Status Center
    By Justin Ray

    Welcome to Spaceflight Now's live coverage of the Delta 4 rocket launching the WGS 4 military communications satellite. Text updates will appear automatically; there is no need to reload the page. Follow us on Twitter.




    0005 GMT (7:05 p.m. EST Thurs.)
    The ULA launch team and the mission management group are guiding the countdown from the Delta Operations Center, located about 9,200 feet from the pad. The engineers overseeing the rocket and ground systems are located on the third floor and the Mission Directors Center room is on the fourth floor. Both rooms have a view of pad 37B and the Delta 4 rocket out their windows. Other rooms are also set up for engineering support.

    The DOC was formerly built to support the Titan-Centaur program but was refurbished to support Delta 4.
    That looks like a very young Gene Kranz.
    Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
    So I don't know how many one here follow things like this. Today megaupload got raided by authorities, and now Anonymous is on a DoS hacking spree shutting does everything.

    Link
    Yeah I know.That sucked total...I have so many words to say that will not be brought upon this blog that will ensure a permma ban.
    Quoting hydrus:
    That looks like a very young Gene Kranz.


    It is.

    : )

    DMI SeaIceExtent


    AMSR-E has been down since October, so no current map is available from IARC-JAXA.
    Does anyone know what's happening to its replacement, AMSR-2?
    All I could find is that it was supposed to be launched in November (with no confirmation of any launch) and that it was supposed to become fully operational by mid2012 (with no confirmation of any orbital testing/etc).
    We had a good view from the Lower Keys.
    Quoting presslord:
    the whole 'retiring names' business has gotten kinda silly....it's just about lost whatever impact it had...it really doesn't have much meaning anymore...I think they should just stop retiring any names...
    No it hasn't.Over the last few years the storms that have been retired have caused some serious damage.Like Igor for an example.He was NewFoundland's worst hurricane in over 75 years.In 08 Gustav and Paloma,and Ike were retired for good reasons.If Ike wasn't retired I'm sure there wouldv'e been some rage amungst the public.Once you get storms on the Ike,Katrina,Wilma,and Rita level than they should be retired.It's also disrepectful to the people that were affected/died.
    Here's a (very) quick and (very) dirty exposure montage of this evening's launch:

    rocket
    Thanks to all those who provided links and info for the Delta 4 launch. Those of you who think this blog should be weather only even in the off season, I hope it never does as this site is where I can get some of the best and freshest info on what's interesting in this world. Plus it would be awfully slow in here right now.

    Thanks to all who contribute!!!

    Keep it up!!!
    According to Meteo France, Funso has rapidly intensified from a Moderate Tropical Storm to a Tropical Cyclone.
    Quoting Patrap:
    Mission Status Center
    By Justin Ray

    Welcome to Spaceflight Now's live coverage of the Delta 4 rocket launching the WGS 4 military communications satellite. Text updates will appear automatically; there is no need to reload the page. Follow us on Twitter.




    0005 GMT (7:05 p.m. EST Thurs.)
    The ULA launch team and the mission management group are guiding the countdown from the Delta Operations Center, located about 9,200 feet from the pad. The engineers overseeing the rocket and ground systems are located on the third floor and the Mission Directors Center room is on the fourth floor. Both rooms have a view of pad 37B and the Delta 4 rocket out their windows. Other rooms are also set up for engineering support.

    The DOC was formerly built to support the Titan-Centaur program but was refurbished to support Delta 4.


    Nice image ;>) - post sent from my home computer ...
    Link
    Quoting cyclonekid:
    According to Meteo France, Funso has rapidly intensified from a Moderate Tropical Storm to a Tropical Cyclone.


    A 70kts (10-min) one aswell.



    Not looking so great anymore..the pinhole eye has (probably temporarily) disappeared...
    I see after looking at the temperatures for where I live (northern mn) the temp has not been above 0 since Monday evening and doesn't look like it will break 0 till Saturday.
    Say what....For West Palm Beach...

    How could you fight a brush fire in hurricane force winds?
    Quoting nymore:
    I see after looking at the temperatures for where I live (northern mn) the temp has not been above 0 since Monday evening and doesn't look like it will break 0 till Saturday.
    i've been noticing it much cooler up there than in the Cities. far milder down here, only having that arctic air today mainly... doesn't appear to be lasting much longer either; Sunday looking mild statewide and trending warmer each day leading up to it. how far up there are ya?
    Cesium is stocked 1.3 times more in unborn baby than mother from the study of cattle in Fukushima
    Posted by Mochizuki on January 19th, 2012 No Comments

    Prof. Hashimoto Manabu from Institute of development, aging and cancer in Tohoku University confirmed cesium is stocked 1.3 times more in unborn baby than mother from the study of stray cattle in Fukushima.

    In 20km area, cattle are abandoned and living in the wild. Having analyzed 88 cattle of them, it turned out that unborn babies are 1.3 times more contaminated in their organs than their mothers.
    Additionally, they found out muscle concentrates cesium 20~30 times more than blood, and tongue and liver concentrate 10 times more than blood.(60 Bq/Kg in blood 1800 Bq/Kg in muscle)
    Also, radioactive silver is concentrated in liver, tellurium is concentrated in kidney.
    Prof. Hashimoto is expecting to study more about internal exposure by analyzing 300 cattle by March so they can apply the knowledge to humans internal exposure...



    Tepcos second biggest stockholder moved their capital to an Indian investment company
    Posted by Mochizuki on January 19th, 2012 No Comments

    Nissay announced they are going to invest 22 billion yen into Reliance capital asset management Ltd. in India.
    Nissay will obtain 26% of the company stock and send board members. They will finish transferring the capital within a couple of weeks.
    Reliance capital asset management is the second biggest investment company in India, and Nissay is the second biggest stockholder of Tepco.

    NASA Finds 2011 Ninth-Warmest Year on Record


    The global average surface temperature in 2011 was the ninth warmest since 1880. The finding continues a trend in which nine of the 10 warmest years in the modern meteorological record have occurred since the year 2000.



    While average global temperature will still fluctuate from year to year, scientists focus on the decadal trend. Nine of the 10 warmest years since 1880 have occurred since the year 2000, as the Earth has experienced sustained higher temperatures than in any decade during the 20th century. As greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continue to rise, scientists expect the long-term temperature increase to continue as well. (Data source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Image credit: NASA Earth Observatory, Robert Simmon)


    NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York, which monitors global surface temperatures on an ongoing basis, released an updated analysis that shows temperatures around the globe in 2011 compared to the average global temperature from the mid-20th century. The comparison shows how Earth continues to experience warmer temperatures than several decades ago. The average temperature around the globe in 2011 was 0.92 degrees F (0.51 C) warmer than the mid-20th century baseline.
    24 hours imprisoned Canadian Journalist who criticized Tepco
    Posted by Mochizuki on January 19th, 2012 · No Comments

    Sorry, The economist. I thought spreading the truth is important.

    AN EXTRAORDINARY story is making the rounds among the hacks and other expats inJapan. A Canadian freelance journalist who has lived in Japan for years fell into the ugly whirlpool of Japan’s immigration-and-detention system. For years human-rights monitors have cited Japan’s responsible agencies for awful abuses; in their reports the system looks like something dark, chaotic and utterly incongruous with the country’s image of friendly lawfulness.

    Still the case of Christopher Johnson beggars belief. Returning to Tokyo after a short trip on December 23rd he was ushered into an examination room, where his nightmare began. Over the next 24 hours he was imprisoned and harassed. Most of his requests to call a lawyer, the embassy or friends were denied, he says.

    Officials falsified statements that he gave them and then insisted that he sign the erroneous testimony, he says. Guards tried to extort money from him and at one point even threatened to shoot him, he says—unless he purchased a wildly expensive ticket for his own deportation, including an overt kick-back for his tormentors. Once he was separated from his belongings, money was stolen from his wallet and other items removed from his baggage (as he has reported to the Tokyo police).

    LONG ARTICLE.... Link
    Quoting Minnemike:
    i've been noticing it much cooler up there than in the Cities. far milder down here, only having that arctic air today mainly... doesn't appear to be lasting much longer either; Sunday looking mild statewide and trending warmer each day leading up to it.
    We call the cities the banana belt. I should not complain as it was only 23 below last night (no wind chill included) it gets so much worse most years
    Funso has developed real banding!

    Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
    How could you fight a brush fire in hurricane force winds?

    I guess you can't; it's 0% contained at this time.
    Fukushima Worker: Camera can resist 1000 sieverts, today it was broken — Spots on images show radioactivity — Tepco yet to measure radiation level (PHOTOS)

    Title: Result of endoscope operation on 1/19/2012
    Source: Fukushima Diary
    Date: January 19th, 2012

    The camera we used today can resist for 1000Sv, but even the camera got so much noise (the white spots), the radiation level is really high. At usual reactor test, we put water-resistant camera into the reactor but it gets too much noise when the camera goes close to the highly radioactive place called top guide.

    If you put the camera at too radioactive place for too long, the camera gets broken. Today the endoscope became like that. To get more detailed image, we would need a more protective camera. It would cost 100 million yen to buy the camera what can get close to the fuel debris with color image.

    For the next time, we need to develop new equipment. We shall use the same hole to measure the radiation level next time. We can’t even tell what to do if we don’t know the radiation level inside.

    Title: Radiation, Rusty Metal Seen In Tsunami-hit Reactor | Fox News
    Source: AP
    Author: MARI YAMAGUCHI
    Date: Jan 19, 2012

    [...] Radiation appeared on the images as static, or electronic interference with the equipment being used. Some parts that were photographed inside the reactor’s containment vessel are not yet identifiable. [...]



    Good news.... snow in PR is posible...

    Earths weird weather: Parts of Sahara desert, near Algeria, hit with snow
    Posted on January 20, 2012
    January 20, 2012 BECHAR, Algeria - Snow fell Tuesday in the Sahara Desert in western Algeria. A 24-hour cold spell brought snow and rain to the region. Strong wind blew the snow across roads and buildings in the province of Bechar. Meteorologists predicted a return of good weather Wednesday. People who live in the region said the snow was good for the palm trees because it killed parasites. Bechar is located in the northern Sahara, about 36 miles south of the Moroccan border.Nine News
    Link

    Quoting yqt1001:
    Funso has developed real banding!



    Gotta love the name.

    Apparently it has designs on becoming a Cat 4.
    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/si2 01208_5day.html
    There are some very bad things occurring in Fukushima, esp under the reactor that went, er..south.


    January 7 2012 Picture - Reactor 4 in fore ground - Reactor 3 (Mox Fuel) 2nd




    A view of grating (R) and the inner wall (L) of the containment vessel of the No. 2 reactor of Tokyo Electric Power Co. (TEPCO)'s tsunami-crippled Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.
    Image by: HANDOUT / REUTERS





    Photos: Radiation, rusty metal seen in Fukushima tsunami-hit reactor

    Read more: http://www.3news.co.nz/Photos-Radiation-rusty-meta l-seen-in-Fukushima-tsunami-hit-reactor/tabid/417/ articleID/240047/Default.aspx#ixzz1jxpfz0Bo



    Better assessment will help workers know how best to plug holes and cracks in the containment vessel - a protective chamber outside the core - to contain the radiation leaks and gradually work toward dismantling the reactors.

    Three of six reactors at the Fukushima plant melted down after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami knocked out the plant's cooling systems and set off the world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl.

    TEPCO and nuclear officials have said that melted fuel probably fell to the bottom of the core in each unit, most likely breaching the bottom of the core and falling into the primary containment vessel, some dropping to its concrete floor.

    Experts have said those are simulation results and that exact location and condition of the fuel could not be known until they have a first-hand observation inside.

    The probe Thursday successfully recorded the temperature inside the containment vessel at 44.7 Celsius (112 F), confirming it stayed below the boiling point and qualifying a "cold shutdown state," the stable condition that the government had declared in December despite scepticism from experts.

    The government has said that it would take 40 years until the Fukushima plant is fully decommissioned.




    Back of unit 4, cropped and enhanced. The buckling of the upper side walls can be seen in this back few from
    the seaside area of the plant. Image has been enhanced and cropped, please keep watermark in place if used elsewhere


    New Photos From Inside Fukushima Daiichi (Simply Info, Jan. 16, 2012):

    These images appear to be from late 2011. The spent fuel pool end of unit 4 is partially dismantled yet the upper side corners remain. Those were eventually removed. All images appear to be from a video from NHK broadcasting. (Many thanks to Mary W for finding them). Commentary before each photo.

    North East corner of unit 4 circles indicate breaks in the outer building frame. The green vertical line shows where the building begins to angle off vertical.
    Without another image from this angle it is unclear if the back of unit 4 is buckling in more or not. Rust has begun appearing on the
    weld joints of the vent tower seen behind the building. Image has been enhanced and cropped, please keep watermark in place if used elsewhere.

    From the Sea Looking toward Plant





    New Photos From Inside Fukushima Daiichi (Simply Info, Jan. 16, 2012):
    Pat, Skyepony used to post animated loops of the Fukushima fallout. do you or anyone out there have a link for that? Tried to search it but couldn't find the one Skye posted.
    Quoting listenerVT:


    Gotta love the name.

    Apparently it has designs on becoming a Cat 4.
    http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/si2 01208_5day.html


    The projected path would be a happier or "Funso" place for it to stay.
    And on that note, we cue the music. Goodnight.
    Quite the debate this evening!
    Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
    And on that note, we cue the music. Goodnight.


    Quoting Patrap:
    ..."The Fate of Nations and of all their deeds

    Lies trapped inside these hearts of greed,"



    The two tone talk is the place to be and the two tone likes me and what I want to be.....
    110 ChillinInTheKeys "Skyepony used to post animated loops of the Fukushima fallout. Do you or anyone out there have a link for that?"

    Skyepony quit posting them when the site quit posting them.
    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
    CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (972 hPa) located at 18.3S 38.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 5 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.0/12 HRS

    Hurricane Force Winds
    =====================
    15 NM radius from the center

    Storm Force Winds
    =================
    30 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    55 NM radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ====================
    65 NM radius from the center

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 18.5S 38.0E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    24 HRS: 18.8S 37.5E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 19.2S 38.8E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    72 HRS: 20.1S 39.8E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    The small eye has disappeared on the last satellite pictures.

    Available numerical weather prediction models are in good agreement within the next 24 hours. System is expected to keep on tracking slowly globally southwestwards on the northern edge of a subtropical ridge.

    Numerical weather prediction models diverge then strongly. A near-equatorial mid-level ridge (cf z500) is expected to build on the north side of the system and should steers it east southeastwards within the next 36 to 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, another mid-tropospheric ridge building in its southeast should steer the system southwestwards.

    Current forecast is close to the ECMWF one.

    For the next 48 hours, proximity of the coast and weakening of the oceanic energetic potential (slow movement of the system) are expected to be limiting factors for deepening. Beyond 48 hours, system should encounter better environmental conditions in the lower levels. Upper levels conditions remain favorable and system is expected to intensify again regularly beyond 48 hours.

    Even this scenario is currently considered by RSMC la reunion as the most likely, the system should within Saturday 21 and Sunday 22 get closer of the Mozambican coasts near Guelimane or Beira regions.. with a potential direct impact that could not be ruled out at this time. Inhabitants of this sector should closely monitor the progress of this potentially dangerous system.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 13:00 PM UTC..
    Mauritius Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
    FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ETHEL (07-20112012)
    10:00 AM RET January 20 2012
    =======================================

    At 6:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ethel (985 hPa) located at 18.4S 64.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 8 knots.

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

    Storm Force Winds
    ================
    20 NM radius from the center

    Gale Force Winds
    =================
    50 NM radius from the center extending up to 160 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    90 NM radius from the center extending up to 250 NM in the southern semi-circle

    Forecast and Intensity
    =======================

    12 HRS: 19.6S 63.7E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    24 HRS: 21.1S 63.1E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    48 HRS: 25.0S 62.6E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
    72 HRS: 29.8S 63.8E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

    Additional Information
    ======================

    Most available numerical weather prediction models remain in good agreement to forecast a south southwestwards to southwards track over the next 2 days then a southeastwards re-curving motion. On this track the system is forecast to move near Rodrigues island tonight in about 18 hours.

    Within the next 24 hours, environment remains rather favorable for slight development. In the upper levels, system takes currently always benefit from a good outflow channel poleward which is expected to improve during the next 24 hours. The system is forecast to move near Rodrigues close to its peak of intensity.

    Vertical northwesterly wind shear, cooler sea surface temperature and interaction with the westerlies is forecast to weaken the system and make it loose tropical characteristics at the end of the period.

    The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ETHEL will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
    Plume detected but very diluted.... Check it yourself with your Geiger counter....

    Published: March 19th, 2011 at 04:24 PM EDT | Email Article Email Article
    By Enenews Admin

    Fukushima nuclear plume “covered most of North America” — Now over N. Atlantic; Including Caribbean, Canada’s east coast
    Fukushima cloud now at the Atlantic, no risk – France, ABS-CBN News (Philippines), March 20, 2011 at 3:23 am:
    The plume from Fukushima has now reached the western Atlantic but its radioactivity is likely to be “extremely low” and have no impact on health or the environment, France’s Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) said on Saturday.
    “As of yesterday, the cloud covered most of North America and northeastern Siberia. It is currently passing over the North Atlantic,” it said, naming French terroritories in the Caribbean and off Canada’s eastern coast.
    The cloud has been progressively thinning as it heads eastwards around the northern hemisphere at high altitude and will reach mainland Europe on Wednesday or Thursday, it said, citing a computer model jointly compiled with the French weather service, Meteo France. …

    Read the report here.
    BBC at 18:41: The cloud plume from Fukushima has now reached the western Atlantic, but radioactivity is likely to be “extremely low” with no impact on health or the environment, France’s Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN) says, according to the AFP news agency.


    U.S. network detects Fukushima plume
    The radiation is quite small but bears the signature of damaged nuclear fuel
    By Janet Raloff
    Web edition : Saturday, March 19th, 2011

    Late Friday, March 18, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy jointly announced that a network of federal radiation-monitoring stations had begun picking up traces of radioactivity attributable to the earthquake-damaged Fukushima reactor complex in Japan.

    The finding was hardly a surprise. Radioactive contaminants can ride the winds. They easily cross continents and oceans, as has been witnessed since the 1950s following nuclear tests — and, of course, the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

    On Friday, a federal radiation monitoring station in Sacramento, Calif., “detected miniscule quantities of the radioactive isotope xenon-133,” the EPA said. “The origin was determined to be consistent with a release from the Fukushima reactors in Northern Japan.”
    Fukushima Plume Animation

    Link




    Old animation
    Slight risk on da map today..warm too.. And quite wet.. Drought will stick around..
    No MJO for us.
    Models still cant pin the NAO..
    Here it comes, hope ther are no tornadies..
    Quoting hydrus:
    Here it comes, hope ther are no tornadies..

    Tommorow is gonna be a great sunrise (I am a photographer) I think, because right at dawn it's gonna be foggy and then the fog is supposed to clear out right when the sun comes up.
    IF it's good, I will share the pictures with you guys.