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Major flooding disaster continues in Central America

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on October 23, 2008

One of this hurricane season's biggest disasters continues to unfold in Central America, where the death toll now stands at 39 from ten days of heavy rains triggered by last week's Tropical Depression Sixteen and this week's tropical disturbance 91L. At least 10,000 homes have been destroyed and 250,000 people made homeless by the floods. Hardest hit is Honduras, where 23 are dead and 8 missing in flash floods and landslides. Approximately 60% of the nation's roads have been damaged, and the flooding is the worst since Hurricane Mitch of 1998 killed 10,000 people there. The past week's flooding has also killed four in Guatemala, seven in Costa Rica, four in Nicaragua, and four in El Salvador. In Belize, damage is at least $15 million from the floods, and some areas are seeing flooding worse than was experienced during Hurricanes Mitch and Keith. Satellite estimates suggest that up to a foot of rain has fallen over some parts of Central America in the past week. The heavy damage to crops across the region will likely cause severe food shortages in coming months, and substantial international aid will be required.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The forecast
Rains over the hardest hit areas of Central America have eased in the past day, with only 1-2 inches of rain reported. However, visible satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity continues over the Western Caribbean, and has moved into northeast Honduras and Nicaragua this morning. While there is currently little chance that a tropical cyclone will form in the Western Caribbean over the next five days, persistent low pressure and sporadic heavy rains will continue to affect the region. A strong cold front is expected to push southward into the area next Tuesday or Wednesday, and the tail end of this cold front could serve as the nucleus for a new tropical disturbance that will generate another round of very heavy rains for Honduras and Belize late next week.

Elsewhere in the tropics
No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days. The National Weather Service office in Houston has posted the storm surge map for Harris County from Ike. It shows a surge of up to 15 feet affected the east side of Houston.

Thursday update on the Hurricane Ike portlight.org charity effort
A fully packed 26-foot truck left yesterday from Charleston, South Carolina, loaded with an estimated $200,000 worth of donated goods for the good citizens of Bridge City, the Bolivar Peninsula, and Houston. You can check out the truck's progress using the streaming video available at http://portlight.camstreams.com/. There's also a chat feature there one can use. The total cost to portlight for this week's charity effort will be approximately $5000-$7000, which will cover truck rental, fuel, lodging, and food. An additional $1750 will be spent for building materials for rebuilding over a dozen ramps for disabilities service organizations, so that clients have access to services. Visit the portlight.org website to engage in the or Stormjunkie's blog for more updates on the effort.

A rough video schedule:

Thursday October 23
Morning: drive to Bridge City, Texas. Noon to 5 pm CDT, unload at Bridge City and Chambers County

Friday October 24
Repatriating WU blogger BillyBadBird to Bolivar Peninsula to begin rebuilding his life there

Saturday October 25
Noon - 3P CDT, free meal for 400-500 Bolivar Peninsula residents


I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters
Where Bolivar Went...
Where Bolivar Went...
The pictures speak for themselves...This is where the homes and other items that were on Bolivar Peninsula ended up after Hurricane Ike's massive surge.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thank you Jeff

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
thanks doc...I hope they can catch a break down there....
Incredible picture, thanks for the update. My thoughts to all in Central America struggling to cope with what the weather does to their daily lives.
Good morning....

Looks like the western caribbean has a circulation..... I guess its a mirage of some sort considering that the NHC doesnt have any special focus on its home page..... Maybe they will reconsider later today......
Anyone agree?
Quoting weatherboyfsu:
Good morning....

Looks like the western caribbean has a circulation..... I guess its a mirage of some sort considering that the NHC doesnt have any special focus on its home page..... Maybe they will reconsider later today......


From the 8am discussion:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 83W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS
WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AS WELL
AS A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION
BASED ON
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 79W-84W. ALSO...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF WAVE AXIS S
OF 11N. THIS CONVECTION IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE W OF AN UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W.
10. JRRP
Elsewhere in the tropics
No computer models are forecasting tropical storm development anywhere in the Atlantic over the next seven days.
what about the CMC ???
Tropical Depression 16 Leaves 250,000 Homeless In Central America
10/23/2008 2:53 AM ET


RTTNews) - Tropical Depression 16, which made landfall in northern Honduras October 16, left a trail of destruction across Central America, killing more than 39 persons, leaving six missing, and 250,000 others homeless, media reports said.

Authorities reported Wednesday that widespread flooding destroyed nearly 10,000 homes besides roads and bridges in Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, Guatemala and El Salvador.

They also said thousands of hectares of farmland were inundated in what is believed to be the worst weather-related catastrophe since Hurricane Mitch tore through the region in 1998, killing almost 20,000 persons.

The latest tropical depression killed 20 persons and left six others missing in Honduras; killed four in Guatemala; seven in Costa Rica; four in Nicaragua and four more in El Salvador.
thanks for the update Dr. Masters! Thoughts and prayers with all of those affected in Central America. Unbelievable damage down there.
Also a spin out at 54W:

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W S OF 20N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM
IN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-14N BETWEEN 47W-56W...LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ITCZ.
Thx... Doc.
If you look at the latest infra-red pics....how can you not acknowledge something?

Granted...there may be only a short window of opportunity but.....It is still there! If something were to form out of this, it would be tracking towards cuba and then Florida in a hurry.....Come on NHC, show some love to this little low that could........ ;-)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...CNTRL GULF CST REGION...
CDFNT THAT SURGED E OF THE MS DELTA AND CNTRL LA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL STALL TODAY IN WAKE OF THE MID-LVL IMPULSE EJECTING NWD INTO
THE MID-MS VLY. 12Z MESOANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS THAT THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR WAS BECOMING SQUEEZED BY THE APCH OF COLDER AIR FROM THE W
AND THE ELY TRANSPORT OF LWR THETA-E AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE
SERN ATLC RIDGE. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO APPRECIABLE CHANGE AS THE LOW-LVL FLOW MAINTAINS AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT OWING TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW IN THE CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO.

OCCLUDED CYCLONE OVR THE PLNS WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY EWD
TODAY...AWAITING ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE FROM THE HIPLNS TO
THE LWR MS VLY LATER TONIGHT. AS IT APCHS THE REGION...THERE WILL
BE A LOW PROBABILITY THAT SCTD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER FAR ERN
LA...SRN MS AND SRN AL ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE OCEANIC INSTABILITY
RESERVOIR. MOST STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ROOTED JUST ABOVE THE
SFC...BUT IF A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CAN MANAGE TO FORM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE CST...THERE WILL BE A SMALL RISK FOR A DMGG WIND
GUST/BRIEF TORNADO.

..RACY/BOTHWELL.. 10/23/2008
weatherboy, NHC has spoken about it, albeit not as a low. Pressures are pretty high at all the buoys in the Carib right now.
The surge link Dr. Masters posted says it all. This should be broadcast widely. Miles inland, and more importantly, miles UPRIVER, storm surge can get you. I bet many of these people in their wildest dreams never thought surge wold get them. Some flooding, maybe, since they are on rivers, but never surge. We saw the same thing happen here and many were caught unaware.
very interesting feature south of the isle of youth at 17.5N,83W...looks to be at the mid-levels,but may be working down to the surface...sheer is about 20kts over the area,We'll just have to keep an eye on it!!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:
very interesting feature south of the isle of youth at 17.5N,83W...looks to be at the mid-levels,but may be working down to the surface...sheer is about 20kts over the area,We'll just have to keep an eye on it!!!!


NHC says circulation is at the surface.
weatherfsu:if something did form it looks like we might get a "close encounter" from it,I'm down here on siesta key,in sarasota...
Pressures are relative.....How about difference in pressure! You could have a low at 1012 mb be as strong as a 1002 mb low....Depends on the pressure around it. If we have a extreme high pressure surrounding the area.....Granted, that is rare but possible......I learned a long time ago, believe half of what you see and almost nothing that you hear!!!! All I know is what I see on the visible loops of that area and I see a circulation.....bottomline!
I'm with you weatherboy. Watching closely.

Shear is forecast to lessen and as StormW mentions in his synopsis, anti-cyclone above.
Quoting Seastep:


NHC says circulation is at the surface.


Oh snap!!!,Ta-Dow!!...Ima go check and see if the quickscat got it.....brb
I would think that we will be hearing more later today on this area.....
Speaking of circulations and lows, check out this Quikscat of the Aleutians in Alaska.
28. IKE
Rain approaching the coast of NW FL....

28. IKE

Time to batten down the hatches Ike. Couple days of messy stuff then back to autumn bliss.
Latest TPC surface analysis:


Photobucket

Photobucket

quickscat missed the area,it would be pretty cool if "marco's" twin formed,its not out of the question,there's alot of energy out there to feed on,the GOM is primed....
32. IKE
Too much shear in the GOM....

Shear can change and/or move......lets wait and see....
32. IKE 11:01 AM EDT on October 23, 2008
Too much shear in the GOM....
Yes, and TCHP way down, in fact only a couple pockets of really warm stuff left in the carib.

We are well on our way to a winter pattern. Not saying that nothing could happen in the next couple weeks, just looking better every day.
primed w/moisture to be specific.......there's a few low's out there the next 24hrs should be very interesting down here!!!!
good morning all, after a tiny bit of overnight rains, we here in "IKE BLOWN" country are in temps of low 50's locally. its actually a beautiful day here, but not smiling too much, still worried about our neighbor's family in Honduras, still no contact. jope everyone else is fairing well, i see the rain headed to my friends in florida, stay dry, & be safe...<3 EVERYone have a great day!!
Quoting messageinabottle:
...i see the rain headed to my friends in florida, stay dry, & be safe...<3 EVERYone have a great day!!


Hey MIB
hey message, rob, everyone, just found out we had 7inches here yesterday, broke a record, way more rain than the hurricanes that rocked on by this year,
Yo, Brat!!

So didja have an umbrella parade last night? Way things have gone last few years maybe the CofCommerce should add that one to their list.

You're just what I need this morning, make me smile sheila!
hey, rob
yep had the brolley out, but my car leaks right on my leg, so was soaked by the time i got home anyway LOL
Tomorrow nite is the big Masquerade, right?

Hopin it will clear out for you by then
Quoting RobDaHood:


Hey MIB

hello...=D how are ya?? just when you think its calm out there in the ocean....lol
Quoting RobDaHood:
Tomorrow nite is the big Masquerade, right?

Hopin it will clear out for you by then
yep and saturday, big parade, get the beads, get the beads,LOL hope the rain nicks off by then, and yes I will try to behave myself, no guaranties(cant spell that) though
Quoting keywestbrat:
hey message, rob, everyone, just found out we had 7inches here yesterday, broke a record, way more rain than the hurricanes that rocked on by this year,

hey BRAT how r ya? hope the rain didnt put too much of a damper on ya...{LOOK i fixed it, LOL..
Quoting messageinabottle:

hello...=D how are ya?? just when you think its calm out there in the ocean....lol


Not really worried about it...Had to shuffle my guys aroud a bit today, major drama, but it's all good. Couple days of nasty then back to the good stuff. How are the efforts on Bolivar going...Ya ought to try to make the pizza party.
Quoting messageinabottle:

hey stef, how r ya? hope the rain didnt put too much of a damper on ya...
MIB am a brat but not stef
BRAT, sorry i called you stef, still half asleep, my daughter was diagnosed with scoliosis & has been keeping me up all night, still tired & had to deal with FEMA yesterday, wanna get into my own place & out of familys home.. xmas is almost here..
Quoting keywestbrat:
MIB am a brat but not stef

yep, thought baout it only after i had sent..SORRY brat, dont vote me off...lol
mib, hope she gets better, sounds like you have your hands full, :) sending coffee your way
MIB

Don't mention XMAS. Not ready for that yet. BTW gonna have to think of something better to call you than MIB, always makes me think of Will Smith...
bolivar, slow, but SURE. can't really ask for more than that. sometimes {IMO}, we all have to be looking around in the harder hit areas & saying...how???? BUT, everyone wants to rebuild. weather is an issue EVERYwhere you go on the earth, why pack up whats left and move into another type of disaster zone??? we don't have the prettiest beaches, but they are our paradise, its where we grew up & WE WILL BE BACK!! <3 &&& mmm yeah pizza sounds good...
Quoting RobDaHood:
MIB

Don't mention XMAS. Not ready for that yet. BTW gonna have to think of something better to call you than MIB, always makes me think of Will Smith...

just call me Heather...like weather with an H... =0 sorry guess stand ups not for me..
I've made a new blog entry, feel free to view...Link
52. messageinabottle

Heather it is then, knew that but didn't know if you wanted it used in public.

Thank you to 2 of my best sheilas, Heather and Brat for putting a smile on my face this morning
53. stormdude77

Thanks for your input.

-rob
Quoting keywestbrat:
mib, hope she gets better, sounds like you have your hands full, :) sending coffee your way

Thanks,i never knew it was such a serious thing- but she is in alot of pain.
her spine on the xray, looks like a backwards kinda question mark..thats the best way to describe it. i feel bad because i thought when she complained of pain it was her kidneys. i kept pumping her full of water & cranberry juice, i should have looked more into the pain.
yeah i'm not scared to use it in public..HEATHER is fine..glad you are smiling, its a beautiful day...i wish everyone had something to smile about today...
Quoting messageinabottle:




My mom has it from a mild bout with polio as a child. (she grew up in TX BTW) and my girlfriend has it "just because".
A late thanks Dr. Masters. This has been a stange year with all of the damage caused by smaller storms.
Quoting RobDaHood:



My mom has it from a mild bout with polio as a child. (she grew up in TX BTW) and my girlfriend has it "just because".

hahaha..lmao, oh yeah i think i may have it too..i think i will just lay around all day..
wow, your mom grew up here huh?? cool..
well, my daughter would claim to have bad pains & i thought she was trying to get outta school, she likes to help with the cleanups & outreach, she one day claimed to be sick , but was better by the time i had to leave to help deliver some supplies, & just insisted on going. one sunday she painted faces at one of the sites for the younger children, she feels so bad for them, now i feel bad, she had no fever, i should have known kidneys would have caused a fever.
Hey all.

Even more moist and windy today. Will it ever go away? :(
60. messageinabottle

Yep, mom's from the longview area. Children are amazing. I imagine your daughter had some pain but was so excited about helping others that it distracted her from it. Storm might have agravated it for her, but going out and doing things makes her feel better. Also, with any type of joint ailments, weather can have a effect. The old cliche about old timers feeling the weather changes in their bones is real.
Quoting Cotillion:
Hey all.

Even more moist and windy today. Will it ever go away? :(


sorry man, don't have a recipe for that one.LOL
Quoting RobDaHood:


sorry man, don't have a recipe for that one.LOL


Pity, was hoping you would...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231141
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

Yum.
Hello everyone.
Hey Tim!

Nice to see ya!
DJIA*
8,678.90 159.69 +1.87%

This probably won't last.....
67. RobDaHood 12:02 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
Hey Tim!

Nice to see ya!


Dido

Quoting RobDaHood:

yeah i know. my mom "feels" the weather. & yes my daughter is awesome, i am glad she wants to help, it would be really easy for her to say when is someone gonna help us, she had her own rm before & now she shares with a cousin, but she sees it as an adventure..& a way to reach out to others, to let them know, they have not been forgotten.. the kids especially love to see her, she is great at face painting, so creative..i wish we could help the people in honduras, they are really suffering, and its not over yet..
68. TampaSpin

It'll be a bit of a roller-coaster for a while, at least till after the elections
I would not be surprised if the World Series might have some snow in the Philly area this weekend and Monday.
Think all this weather is getting to me, coming down with something... ick.

And on the markets, ours is up a little today.
72. TampaSpin

Definitely cold and wet, snow would be no surprise.

I'm having a lot of fun right now cause my girlfriend is going to Bufallo, NY for her sister's halloween wedding. She's lived in FL for 15+ years and going to freeze her butt off!
Quoting RobDaHood:
72. TampaSpin

Definitely cold and wet, snow would be no surprise.

I'm having a lot of fun right now cause my girlfriend is going to Bufallo, NY for her sister's halloween wedding. She's lived in FL for 15+ years and going to freeze her butt off!


Ya i here that.......had family down from Indiana last week and now they are also freezing they say...I really feel bad....LMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:
I would not be surprised if the World Series might have some snow in the Philly area this weekend and Monday.


When does that end? :D

(And from the previous blog Rob, you don't agree with me on the 'Phillies', Lol? I've the same issue with other names... like the Texans for example. I love the NFL, best sport in the world. But that name was lacking originality. It's like a football team here called the 'Liverpool Scousers.' ... Well, duh? - Rant over before I get ejected, lol.)

Anyway, out in the EPac we have TD17-E. Expected to become Polo soon. (Who'd have thought it.. Marco in the East and Polo in the West...)
Quoting RobDaHood:
72. TampaSpin

Definitely cold and wet, snow would be no surprise.

I'm having a lot of fun right now cause my girlfriend is going to Bufallo, NY for her sister's halloween wedding. She's lived in FL for 15+ years and going to freeze her butt off!
she's freezing her butt off, we're wearing cut offs, bartender, give me another beer, LOL
How strange is it for a tropical storm to be hitting Yemen?



77. Cotillion

wasn't saying I disagreed with you, just thought you weren't looking to make a lot of new friends here poking fun a the team names LOL

Not a big baseball fan myself, would rather play than watch, but right in there pullin' for the rays, if only for Tim's sake.
79. oddspeed

didn't that happen last year too? Yeah, desert and Tropical weather don't seem to go together, but maybe we're just to pre-occupied to notice sometimes. What about it Cotillion, how common is this?
Quoting RobDaHood:
77. Cotillion

wasn't saying I disagreed with you, just thought you weren't looking to make a lot of new friends here poking fun a the team names LOL

Not a big baseball fan myself, would rather play than watch, but right in there pullin' for the rays, if only for Tim's sake.


Thanks Rob.....very much....
Hello all again.
A roof blown off in the City today, injuring 1. Where I am, constant drizzle, no wind. Trying to get some report from Tobago, where most of this cloud has sat since early this morning. The noon news said nothing about them, so maybe similiar conditions, rain-wise.
Quoting RobDaHood:
79. oddspeed

didn't that happen last year too? Yeah, desert and Tropical weather don't seem to go together, but maybe we're just to pre-occupied to notice sometimes. What about it Cotillion, how common is this?


I seem to recall from last year that the cyclone hitting Oman was fairly irregular. It's uncommon, but not unheard of. In terms of an Atlantic comparison... probably more common than say, a tropical system hitting Europe (While still tropical, I hasten to add) or a storm impacting Panama/Costa Rica. Perhaps slightly less common than a storm making direct landfall in New England.

That's about as much of a comparison I can think of making.
Quoting TampaSpin:
71. RobDaHood 12:05 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
68. TampaSpin

It'll be a bit of a roller-coaster for a while, at least till after the elections


YOu got that right....simply put if Obama wins the market goes down big time...If McCain wins the Market will slowly rise......


Interesting...

How did you come to this conclusion?
82. TampaSpin

No problem, man

78. keywestbrat
believe me, I am showing no mercy LOL

83. pottery wow, but hey, you wanted rain...don't blame me now.
85. Cotillion

Thanks!

Not gonna touch the political stuff...
91. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
DJIA*
8,678.90 159.69 +1.87%

This probably won't last.....


You're right, it didn't....

DOW
29.47
-0.35%
8,489.74
Not blaming you (yet) Rob....... LOL
It is cool, gloomy, rainy, and I just ate an avocado the size of Nebraska, stuffed with tuna salad. Burp.
May have to take to my bed for a siesta......
93. Cotillion

American girlfriend, huh? poor guy LOL
Appreciate your honesty and humor

Duty calls and must leave for a while to earn living, else my "American Girlfriend" will be none too pleased. See you guys in a few hours!
Quoting RobDaHood:
Tomorrow nite is the big Masquerade, right?

Hopin it will clear out for you by then


I can't believe the constant downpours yesterday.- Last time I can remember this much rain in Key West was back in the middle 90's when the remnants of a tropical storm (started with a D) moved through, dumping 7-8 inches of rain in 24 hours. And yes, the parade tomorrow night will hopefully remain dry or all my pirate make-up will run. LOL
Sounds like a plan Pottery,

later!
Sounds to me like there are lots of people in for some major surprises, with this US election.
Quoting pottery:
Not blaming you (yet) Rob....... LOL
It is cool, gloomy, rainy, and I just ate an avocado the size of Nebraska, stuffed with tuna salad. Burp.
May have to take to my bed for a siesta......

We're about to have a great deluge here on the NW Fla coast. How much do avocadoes cost there?? Just wondering.
102. IKE
On the latest cover of the Rolling Stone

Tropical storm force gusts in the GOM south of the Florida panhandle....buoy 42039

Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 11.2 ft

5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.07 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.01 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.0 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 72.1 °F
Quoting sugarsand:

We're about to have a great deluge here on the NW Fla coast. How much do avocadoes cost there?? Just wondering.
I just bought a Florida avacado for a buck at Albertsons
Can we leave politics off the board please? Some of us think the Obama has less experience than Palin, so please stick to the weather. This is like when celebrities become political and I can no longer watch them. Thank you. Getting of my soapbox.
Hi, Sugar. Avocados ( we call them Zabocas ) come free, from several trees in the garden. The best ones are big, about a pound, but they dont travel well, so are not exported. Sorry !!
I think I'm going to cry.

My forecast for the next 5 days...

Thursday, Heavy Rain. High: 12, Low: 9. (I need only look outside my window for this. It's dark, windy and all round miserable.)
Friday, Showers. High: 10, Low: 8.
Saturday, Heavy Rain. High: 13, Low: 10.
Sunday, Showers. High: 12, Low: 6.
Monday, Showers. High: 9, Low: 5.

-sigh- Yet more rain on the way.
20 Frame Radar Loop, NOLA Link
Quoting pottery:
Hi, Sugar. Avocados ( we call them Zabocas ) come free, from several trees in the garden. The best ones are big, about a pound, but they dont travel well, so are not exported. Sorry !!

Another great reason to live there, Pottery! I have an avocado tree I planted, but it takes 8 years to bear fruit. I paid .99 ea. at Publix, and they are scrawny.
Quoting pottery:
Hi, Sugar. Avocados ( we call them Zabocas ) come free, from several trees in the garden. The best ones are big, about a pound, but they dont travel well, so are not exported. Sorry !!


Can we come and lounge at your place for an avocado holiday instead then? :D
Quoting KeyWestwx:


I can't believe the constant downpours yesterday.- Last time I can remember this much rain in Key West was back in the middle 90's when the remnants of a tropical storm (started with a D) moved through, dumping 7-8 inches of rain in 24 hours. And yes, the parade tomorrow night will hopefully remain dry or all my pirate make-up will run. LOL
hey WX looks like most of the rain is off to the west today, a few sprinkles here so far, still some major lakes in and around key west, amazing
Ah, Cotillion.
Spoke to my daughter in Stevenage today. She is getting a little desperate for the sun. I may have to finance a trip for her here, for Christmas !
Quoting Patrap:
20 Frame Radar Loop, NOLA Link
Yep, it's coming!
1) we had tropical storm force gusts here today... IN england as well!

2)


Avocado season is nearly over, Cotillion. You better hurry man.....
i am working for the obama campaign in the big bend/panhandle of florida...and i am hoping the rain doesn't hinder our 'get out the vote' efforts saturday....stay away rain come back after the election please. i wishcast you away, rain.
1) we had tropical storm force gusts here today... IN england as well!

Uh, Ipswich. That's nothing new. We get winds of up to an equivalent Cat 3 here. Research 'Windstorms'... our season's on its way.

And pottery, perhaps next year, as long as you don't eat all of 'em. ;)
86. BeanTech 12:27 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
71. RobDaHood 12:05 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
68. TampaSpin

It'll be a bit of a roller-coaster for a while, at least till after the elections

YOu got that right....simply put if Obama wins the market goes down big time...If McCain wins the Market will slowly rise......



Interesting...

How did you come to this conclusion?


No conclusion of mine, just a fact of Obama's policy of raising corp. taxes. Its his plan. I have many friends in Corp. American and some are CEO's that say a rise in Corp. taxes will mean a loss of jobs and much higher inflation to to the fact of the Corp. trying to pass on higher cost of goods on to the consumer which is already suffering. Its really very basic Economics.
122. IKE
Quoting wishcasterfromfsu:
i am working for the obama campaign in the big bend/panhandle of florida...and i am hoping the rain doesn't hinder our 'get out the vote' efforts saturday....stay away rain come back after the election please. i wishcast you away, rain.


I just went and voted early here in Walton county. Took me about 10 minutes to get in and out.


Rain moving in here.....

Quoting weathers4me:
Don't worry, Obama will win and we will all be better off for it, except the rich. They will be paying the same tax rate as when Clinton was in charge. As far as the Dow. The market will rise when Obama get in. You had that point a bit backward.


No i have it correct....the Market is falling under the persumtion that Obama will win....thats why its falling now as much as it has.
124. GBlet
Good day everyone! Waiting to see how far the snow line moves. At least the wind is gone. Oh and BTW, if CEOs were not being compensated with such extravagent pay and benefit pkgs, that might leave a little more "breathing room" against all those taxes. Ok, I know, back to my corner now. I am personally sick of paying shipping and handling on every loaf of bread I buy.
Quoting TampaSpin:
86. BeanTech 12:27 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
71. RobDaHood 12:05 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
68. TampaSpin

It'll be a bit of a roller-coaster for a while, at least till after the elections

YOu got that right....simply put if Obama wins the market goes down big time...If McCain wins the Market will slowly rise......



Interesting...

How did you come to this conclusion?


No conclusion of mine, just a fact of Obama's policy of raising corp. taxes. Its his plan. I have many friends in Corp. American and some are CEO's that say a rise in Corp. taxes will mean a loss of jobs and much higher inflation to to the fact of the Corp. trying to pass on higher cost of goods on to the comsumer which is already suffering. Its really very basic Economics.


Yep. Corporations do not pay taxes. People do. Corporations just collect them from their customers.
At least you guys have an election now.

We still have to wait for another 1 1/2 years yet. With a leader that we didn't explicitly vote for...

Probably a change of guard at the next election going off the polls. Thankfully.
I don't like what either candidate stands for(both are Builderburg puppets). If the media wasn't so biased, I strongly believe Ron Paul would've had a great chance on winning the nomination at the Republican National Convention.

I just Hope he makes it to congress again.:) He along with Aaron Russel, Mike Adams, Kevin Trudeau, and Alex Jones really opened my eyes to the truth. Before, I was a blind naive supporter of George W. Bush.:(

Quoting TampaSpin:
86. BeanTech 12:27 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
71. RobDaHood 12:05 PM EDT on October 23, 2008
68. TampaSpin

It'll be a bit of a roller-coaster for a while, at least till after the elections

YOu got that right....simply put if Obama wins the market goes down big time...If McCain wins the Market will slowly rise......



Interesting...

How did you come to this conclusion?


No conclusion of mine, just a fact of Obama's policy of raising corp. taxes. Its his plan. I have many friends in Corp. American and some are CEO's that say a rise in Corp. taxes will mean a loss of jobs and much higher inflation to to the fact of the Corp. trying to pass on higher cost of goods on to the comsumer which is already suffering. Its really very basic Economics.


It's corporate America, the stock market and bad government that got us in this mess to begin with. Obviously the past 8 years of lower taxes didn't help much, just made them greedy.


A storm possible around election day?

We shall see...
Trinidad weather now-
temp 75 ( nice )
humidity 100% ( huh!)
press 1011 falling (well well well)
wind calm
Raining.......
Quoting TampaSpin:


No i have it correct....the Market is falling under the persumtion that Obama will win....thats why its falling now as much as it has.

I'll prolly get banned, but for kicks and Giggles,
Revelation 11 people, Revelation 11!
A vote for McCain we could be in Pain.....A vote for Obama we would be in Painful Drama....LOL
Quoting weatherbro:
I don't like what either candidate stands for(both are Builderburg puppets). If the media wasn't so biased, I strongly believe Ron Paul would've had a great chance on winning the nomination at the Republican National Convention.

I just Hope he makes it to congress again.:) He along with Aron Russel, Mike Adams, Kevin Trudeau, and Alex Jones really opened my eyes to the truth. Before, I was a blind naive supporter or George W. Bush.:(

Kevin Trudeau in Congress.....?!
Okay I'm out of here.
Airport weather station on Tobago-
wind calm
light rain
1012 pressure.

I am surprised that there is so little rainfall with this heavy cloud over us.
The sat, images were a little scary, and still look heavy.
Its all good....
Quoting TampaSpin:


No i have it correct....the Market is falling under the persumtion that Obama will win....thats why its falling now as much as it has.


You sure?

Dear Investor,

*****Hmmm. The Dow Industrials got killed two days in a row. So much for my "up one day, down the next" theory.

We are in the heart of earnings season, so it shouldn't be a big surprise that buyers are patiently waiting on the sidelines. We'll have seen the majority of third quarter corporate earnings by the end of the first week in November.

I know it may seem like a horrible Halloween prank, but stocks may stay volatile for another 2 weeks.

That's probably the best hope for any kind of sustained rally. Once earnings are out of the way, at least analysts should have some idea of how earnings going forward will look. And then investors can price those expectations into stocks.

Ike thank you for voting!! Doesn't Walton County go Republican?
Quoting TampaSpin:


No i have it correct....the Market is falling under the persumtion that Obama will win....thats why its falling now as much as it has.


sorry tampa your wrong!!!
I will list a few reasons why the market has been falling

1.Credit freezes
2.more houses and condo's than there are people to occupy them.
3.morgage forclosures
4.outsourcing of american jobs
5.less confidence in the U.S. market worldwide
6.fearcession


hope that helps,there are better times ahead for the working middle class,just everyone keep your darn retirement out of the stock market!!!
here's an idea....

Why don't we all go over to the political blog and talk weather?
Quoting presslord:
here's an idea....

Why don't we all go over to the political blog and talk weather?


Ha this is whether. Whether or not we're doomed from obama or doomed from McCain.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


It's corporate America, the stock market and bad government that got us in this mess to begin with. Obviously the past 8 years of lower taxes didn't help much, just made them greedy.


yea tell me about it!!!,my boss has gone on vacation to europe 2 times in the last 2 months,yea he's really hurting right now,what a joke the tax cuts for the rich pay for there extra vacations,obama's would help the middle-class save there morgages!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
here's an idea....

Why don't we all go over to the political blog and talk weather?


Your right press, my apologies. Easy to get caught up a couple weeks before the election.
Good one Press.LOL
How are you faring with all this effort you are putting into the relief effort ? Hope all is well.
' Nuff Respect man.
145. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:
Ike thank you for voting!! Doesn't Walton County go Republican?


Usually. McCain will win the panhandle counties.....
Quoting stillwaiting:


sorry tampa your wrong!!!
I will list a few reasons why the market has been falling

1.Credit freezes
2.more houses and condo's than there are people to occupy them.
3.morgage forclosures
4.outsourcing of american jobs
5.less confidence in the U.S. market worldwide
6.fearcession


hope that helps,there are better times ahead for the working middle class,just everyone keep your darn retirement out of the stock market!!!


Part of what you say stated is fact.....the market is falling because of not making there profit margins....but, its also falling with the expected election outcome. Big momey from overseas is pulling out....for that reason.
Hey Brat- trying to quote you but can't seem to capture it in a post-

Yes! the corner of venetia and ?, by the highschool, is a lake. There was a crew there all night working in feet of water- even the crews truck seemed to be stuck in the water.......
all is well....no apoligies necessary...I was just trying to be funny....without revealing specifics, my wife and I are on complete opposite sides politically...I'll be so glad when election season is over....
Quoting stillwaiting:


yea tell me about it!!!,my boss has gone on vacation to europe 2 times in the last 2 months,yea he's really hurting right now,what a joke the tax cuts for the rich pay for there extra vacations,obama's would help the middle-class save there morgages!!!!!



No, Obama will take your money and do with it what HE wants. Instead of you being able to give to the charity of your choice. Oh forget it. I'm really leaving now.
Quoting presslord:
here's an idea....

Why don't we all go over to the political blog and talk weather?

thats a great idea presslord, it would go over as well as the talks here of politics..
HEY PEOPLE, i love ya, but this is & CAN GET UGLY, lets get back to why we are all here in THIS BLOG...weather....in the words of many anchormen at 15 past 6 &&&& NOW HERES THE WEATHER........:::::::::
"I will be so glad when the election is over". Amen.
so basically when things get rough,the ceo's cut jobs instead of taking a pay cut,that sounds like greed to me,they get nice bonuses when things are good,but if they underperform they get no pay cut?????
153. GBlet
HONESTY, that's what's missing. It started with a Jeep commercial, "NO DOWN PAYMENT, NO PAYMENT TILL NEXT YEAR, NO INTEREST TILL NEXT YEAR." It started right after Sept 2001. Companies desperate to keep the money machine moving. Making false promises and coming up with "programs" to suit every credit need imaginable. Anywho, most of the schools in the western part of the state are now closed.
Sunny, cloudy, rainy and snowy....all in 1 line...........LMAO
Quoting sugarsand:
"I will be so glad when the election is over". Amen.

&&& AMMMMENNN... its getting ugly in here, uglier than a hurricane....BY THE WAY WE HAVE trop dep 17 E in the pacific...JUST BY the way....
TD 17 in the pacific.....just saying...
allright I'm finished ranting,back to tropical weather....??????
158. GBlet
If this low doesn't move soon I'm going to get really dizzy!
hey WX usually you have to press the quote button twice
Quoting TampaSpin:
Sunny, cloudy, rainy and snowy....all in 1 line...........LMAO



An old weather forecast that was up on the weather channel my dad told me about. It may or may not snow. It may or may not rain. It may or may not storm. It may or may not ice.

Something like that. It acutally makes since for my area. You can have severe storms on the outer banks. Along the coast rain and about 20miles inland ice. Just a little farther inland snow.
Oh and btw. If you live along the coast of NC and they say slight chance of snow. Prepare for a blizzard.
Quoting pottery:
Hi, Sugar. Avocados ( we call them Zabocas ) come free, from several trees in the garden. The best ones are big, about a pound, but they dont travel well, so are not exported. Sorry !!

Yum to the avocado. Even envied you the belch (grin). Nothing like tropical off the tree fresh fruit. My favorite is a papaya right off the tree with a key lime right off the tree to sprinkle juice over it. aaaah Need to get further south in latitude - it's been way too long.
there's something going on there south of the isle of youth....
164. GBlet
All ready craving sun, sand and surf. This winter is going to be looonnng and dreary.
Back to yellow:

rays are not done yet because it is a seven game series meanwhile the election is all even according to AP news
Quoting Seastep:
Back to yellow:


man they are getting pounded. one paper from there showed a man who found his 2 yr old son in the water!!! they are really graphic with their news over there...i just pray for a speedy end to the disaster there, but i know better, they have more rain next week.
It's BLOWING STINK here...cold...i am trying to hold off on turning the heat on yet...refusing to do it - keep telling the kids "put a sweater on" - would like ONE MONTH without a $350 electric bill...
ok everyone have a great day, i am off to pick up gumbo supplies to enhance my cool forecast!! =D everyone be safe & well. i will talk to you all tomorrow!<3
167 - Yes. Always sad. Hopefully what rain is left there will pull N.
Quoting stillwaiting:
there's something going on there south of the isle of youth....


Yeah, it's called lack of shear.
You around pottery?

How's the weather down your way. Looking like you'll get more rain than you asked for.
Good Afternoon everyone. We got hammered with rain in the early morning hours in Grand Cayman. In the last few days I think we probably got more rain than the whole year combined.
Portlight Truck... SJ & Rainman about 10 miles from Bridge city...
Quoting sugarsand:
Kevin Trudeau in Congress.....?!


Na I just mentioned him cause of his boldness in blowing the lid off the corruptions of the western healthcare system.

Back to the weather. Next week Florida's in for a fall treat. Woohoo!
Good Afternoon everyone! I see its time to watch the Caribbean again, this will likely bring rains to Florida
Portlight truck unloading live on webcam at Bridge city now...
Quoting Jedkins01:



category 3?

No wonder europeans have started every world war, you guys are retarded lol.

Seriously man, you might want to educate yourself better category 3?, thats like calling Barrack Obama a conservative


No they do get windstorms that sweep across Europe with cat 3 winds. Most of the time they are weaker but they do get them. I saw a documentary on it a couple years ago.
Link

Here ya go jed.
A European windstorm is a severe cyclonic storm that tracks across the North Atlantic towards northwestern Europe in the winter months. These storms usually track over the north coast of Scotland towards Norway but can veer south to affect other countries including England, Wales, Ireland, Switzerland, France, Belgium, Austria, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Germany, Lithuania, Latvia, and Poland. As these storms can generate hurricane-force winds, they are sometimes referred to as hurricanes, even though very few originate as tropical cyclones. Highest recorded peak winds at landfall have been comparable to Category 3 hurricanes on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

These storms cause economic damage of €1.9 billion per year, and insurance losses of €1.4 billion per year (1990-1998). They rank as the second highest cause of global natural catastrophe insurance loss (after U.S. hurricanes).
This is also interesting:

Several European languages use the word Orcan (or cognates thereof) to indicate the European windstorm. "Orcan" derives from the Mayan god Huracan, also the source of the word hurricane.


They even call them hurricanes as well over there, for example.
Quoting Seastep:
Back to yellow:



That's 91L, right?
Of course, such storms also occur elsewhere as well; for example, this hit Alaska a couple days ago:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
410 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

CORRECT SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


That's 91L, right?


Nope. 91L is just about to go into BOC from the Yucatan. It's an "area of disturbed weather."
Actually, check that. The low associated with 91L is supposed to pull NNE, but it was stationary on the W coast of the Yucatan.

And, weird because the surface analysis below still shows it at 12Z, but the one here does not. Go figure?

Quoting Seastep:
Actually, check that. The low associated with 91L is supposed to pull NNE, but it was stationary on the W coast of the Yucatan.

And, weird because the surface analysis below still shows it at 12Z, but the one here does not. Go figure?



The link is the 24hr forecast. In 24hrs the low in the gulf, former 91l and the blob in the caribbean are all going off th the ne outta here. They're all that one low.
List of the top Most destructive hurricanes by 2004:

$40.7 Hurricane Andrew
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$16.2 Hurricane Charley

$15.23 Hurricane Agnes
$14.1 Hurricane Hugo
$10.4 Hurricane Frances
$9.35 Hurricane Betsy

By 2008

$81.2 Hurricane Katrina
$40.7 Hurricane Andrew
$31.5 Hurricane Ike
$29.1 Hurricane Wilma
$18.1 Hurricane Ivan
$18.0 Hurricane Gustav
$16.2 Hurricane Charley

Look at that, just in 2005 & 2008 Ivan gets topped off to number 5, and Charley to number 7.
That's pretty amazing. Something to be read from that... just not sure what exactly. Maybe all the coastal development in the past four years combined with property appreciations? Or, um, GW?
I'd retort Jedkins, but it has already been done admirably by others.

Thank you guys. ;)
Quoting captainhunter:
That's pretty amazing. Something to be read from that... just not sure what exactly. Maybe all the coastal development in the past four years combined with property appreciations? Or, um, GW?


It would be even more dramatic if you used the actual damage estimates:

$81.2 Hurricane Katrina (2005)
$31.5 Hurricane Ike (2008)
$29.1 Hurricane Wilma (2005)
$26.5 Hurricane Andrew (1992)
$19.2 Hurricane Ivan (2004)
$18.0 Hurricane Gustav (2008)
$16.3 Hurricane Charley (2004)


As for why, it is mainly because people are too stupid to learn not to live right along the coast (yes, damage can also occur inland but the potential is far higher right along the coastline; as you can guess, I agree with the current WunderPoll).
Quoting HurricaneKing:


The link is the 24hr forecast. In 24hrs the low in the gulf, former 91l and the blob in the caribbean are all going off th the ne outta here. They're all that one low.


Ah, that explains it. Thanks.
Chance of snow next week!!

First flakes next week this Fall in North Carolina.
That low in the gulf is strengthening fast! Is wrapping up south of Louisiana, its a big low....
Another point CyberTeddy, If Ivan had hit in a more populated and more developed area such as S Fla it's damage assessment would be a whole lot higher. I was at ground zero a few weeks afterward and saw beach front condos collapsed in piles of rubble. The devastation was absolutely mind boggling. It's just that Gulf Shores and points eastward are relatively undeveloped when compared with S Fla.
Quoting captainhunter:
Or, um, GW?


I also wonder why that is always brought into play as well; not that I disagree with global warming, but it certainly can't account for the dramatic rise in damage in recent years, especially for individual storms. Probably about half of the contribution to stronger storms in recent years is due to the AMO and the other half to global warming (when comparing SST anomalies to that imparted by the AMO, the AMO explains about half of it, a rise of 1*C increases MPI by about one category, though not all storms can take advantage of MPI, especially in the cool AMO phase when other factors like shear, dust, etc are also more unfavorable). Though stronger storms alone doesn't automatically mean more damage; Katrina was only a Cat 3 at landfall, the damage was mostly because people decided that living below sea level is a good idea.
#193,

And to add, we've not even not the big Miami or New York storm yet this century. (Andrew was close on the former, but made landfall just away from Miami.)

I hope it doesn't happen, but following history, there's a fairly big chance it will someday.
198. MichaelSTL

I was kidding about the GW thing. I agree with you completely.
Kind of like how people decide living in floodplains is a good idea, even after they loose their houses several times, although earlier this year many places in the Midwest saw flooding where none had ever occurred before; others saw two "500 year" floods in a few months.
Well, no place on Earth is really under no threat from some disaster or another.

Yes, sure some are bigger risks than others. But with like 8 billion people in the world, gotta put them somewhere.

And by not living there, you'd miss out on some resources that you'd need, as well as ports and the like. While it may not seem a good idea on the face of it, you take the rough with the smooth.

You as an individual though, can make the choice for yourself in terms of risk assessment.
Quoting MichaelSTL:
This is also interesting:


Several European languages use the word Orcan (or cognates thereof) to indicate the European windstorm. "Orcan" derives from the Mayan god Huracan, also the source of the word hurricane.


They even call them hurricanes as well over there, for example.




Yes I cannot disagree that deep violent windstorms can and do occurr even in europe...

However sustained winds never reach higher then category 1 outside of warm core systems, accept for in high elevations.

But Hurricanes( warm core, tropical cyclone) also will produce much stronger winds at higher elevations so that oviously isn't my point...


And that source that said "comparable up to category 3" is bullcrap, not surprising its from wikipedia.


Look man I agree that hurricane force winds are possible in cold-cored mid lattitude cyclones, as they have been recorded.

However sustained winds any higher then a minimal category 1 hurricane(warm core cyclone) just don't happen, Ive even heard of wind gusts recorded over 100 mph which is very severe.


But my point was to make that category 3 compareable is just not true, not surprising the source is wikipedia lol



Just so you you know, no hard feelings right guys?

Yeah I know I started the harsh statements, but I do'nt mean it, its just fun to, I cant resist :)
Quoting Cotillion:
Well, no place on Earth is really under no threat from some disaster or another.

Yes, sure some are bigger risks than others. But with like 8 billion people in the world, gotta put them somewhere.

And by not living there, you'd miss out on some resources that you'd need, as well as ports and the like. While it may not seem a good idea on the face of it, you take the rough with the smooth.

You as an individual though, can make the choice for yourself in terms of risk assessment.



I do apologize for the harsh comment at any rate lol. Hey you have the right to crack on dumb americans then right? haha
No worries.

Though if you don't wanna take Wiki... try this:

Link

118mph, Cat 3. (Yes, not sustained. That's why I say 'up to.')

Link

Yes, it's Wiki, but look at all the footnotes. (The 140mph recording - Cat 4 - was on high elevation, however. Another of 132mph as well, though also on high elevation. Others on sea level around 100mph, Cat 2. Possibly stronger.)



Quoting Jedkins01:
not surprising the source is wikipedia lol


Just what do you have against them? They base their information on factual articles (they have even been regarded as more accurate than some leading encyclopedias and have recently taken measures to crack down on vandalism).

'Nature': Wikipedia is accurate
By Dan Goodin, Associated Press
SAN FRANCISCO — Wikipedia, the encyclopedia that relies on volunteers to pen nearly 4 million articles, is about as accurate in covering scientific topics as Encyclopedia Britannica, the journal Nature wrote in an online article published Wednesday.


PS: Did you know that if you find an obvious error, you can edit the page yourself and fix it?
That said, they shouldn't be called hurricanes.

As they just aren't, lol.
I remember when in 2006 some people said that there wouldn't be another hurricane as Strong as Katrina, Rita, or Wilma for years. 1 year later, a Hurricane with 905 MB pressure, winds 165 MPH hit the Yucatan at that intensity, year after that a Category 4/5 hit Cuba (which I wont be surprised to see Gustav upgraded to Category 5 intensity.)
I know that this is accurate because I experienced it and saw some of the quoted facts on the news myself:

Heat wave of 2006 derecho series
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Jump to: navigation, search

The heat wave of 2006 derecho series was a series of severe wind events associated with powerful thunderstorms, known as derechos, that occurred in a five-day period between July 17 and July 21, 2006. The first storms took place across a wide swath of north-central and northeastern North America stretching from the Upper Midwest, through much of Ontario and into the northeastern United States. Another round of storms affected the middle Mississippi River Valley, notably the city of St. Louis, Missouri, which took a direct hit twice by powerful derechos. During the period, over 3,000,000 people across the region were left without power from the storms, some more than once and some did not have power restored for weeks after the event.

St. Louis area derecho event (July 19, 2006)

For the third consecutive day, a major derecho took place, albeit further south this time, making a direct hit on the St. Louis metropolitan area on the evening of July 19. In all, 9 storm-related deaths were reported with 7 confirmed tornadoes.

St. Louis area

The derecho moved across the St. Louis area at about 19:45 CDT (00:45 UTC) that evening. The storms produced destructive straight-line winds across the metropolitan area, along with two isolated F0 tornadoes. These storms downed many trees atop active power lines, creating the largest electricity outage in the history of the City of St. Louis. More than 1,200,000 residents of the area were left without power amidst a heat wave during an already hot and humid midwestern United States summer. The outage was described by Ameren as the worst in the utility's history.[18] The highest winds officially recorded were in Macoupin County, Illinois, in the northern part of the metropolitan area, where 160 km/h (100 mph) winds were recorded. Most of the region saw hurricane-force wind gusts near 130 km/h (80 mph).

The storms went on to hit other cities in Illinois, including Alton, O'Fallon, Edwardsville, Bethalto, Glen Carbon and East St. Louis. The neighbouring towns of East Alton, Wood River, and Roxana house the third largest oil refinery in the United States. When the storms hit, they uprooted nearly 30% of all trees in the area, knocked out power for nearly a week, and left the refineries powerless.

Aftermath

Many people seeking generators or ice after the storms were faced with long queues at local grocery and hardware stores. Many point-of-sale readers and automated banking machines were malfunctioning. Cash was the only usable tender at many locations. Gas shortages also became an issue.

After a few days, power began to come back on for most St. Louis citizens. Illinois was entirely up and running by July 27. The Florissant, Missouri area, which was hardest hit, was finally turned on by July 29, ten days after the storm.

The storms left a heightened awareness within local and state governments that this is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the country inside the outer belt of "Tornado Alley"; hence it is not completely safe. Ameren UE was criticized by some for not attending to their needs as quickly as others. They did, however, have to deal with a large scale disaster, unprecedented in the area, and many people didn't realize the full extent. In retrospect, they have been praised for their hard work and their willingness to work long hours to get local residents and businesses back up and running.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I remember when in 2006 some people said that there wouldn't be another hurricane as Strong as Katrina, Rita, or Wilma for years. 1 year later, a Hurricane with 905 MB pressure, winds 165 MPH hit the Yucatan at that intensity, year after that a Category 4/5 hit Cuba (which I wont be surprised to see Gustav upgraded to Category 5 intensity.)


Dean was actually upgraded to 175 mph, so was Felix (though Felix was 160 at landfall, Dean was also a Cat 5 twice as well).
I knew about Dean being upgraded to 175, didn't know about Felix.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Dean was actually upgraded to 175 mph, so was Felix (though Felix was 160 at landfall, Dean was also a Cat 5 twice as well).


Although discounted because of graupel, I recall Felix having a wind speed recorded of around 190mph.

From purely an academical point of view, Felix was a fascinating storm to track.
Latest:

Photobucket
Quoting Cotillion:


Although discounted because of graupel, I recall Felix having a wind speed recorded of around 190mph.

From purely an academical point of view, Felix has a fascinating storm to track.


Interestingly enough, that reading was actually confirmed to be accurate, according to somebody who works at the Hurricane Research Division. The NHC apparently discounted it as a local effect though (i.e. mesovortex) and not representative of the whole storm.
215. P3EWO
From Websters....

Hurricane:

1 : a tropical cyclone with winds of 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour or greater that occurs especially in the western Atlantic, that is usually accompanied by rain, thunder, and lightning, and that sometimes moves into temperate latitudes — see beaufort scale table
2 : something resembling a hurricane especially in its turmoil.

From reading the article, it sounds like "European Windstorms" cause their share of TURMOIL.

And if it was a hurricane and it maintains it's hurricane force winds, at what point does it stop being a hurricane? Where is the magic line??
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Interestingly enough, that reading was actually confirmed to be accurate, according to somebody who works at the Hurricane Research Division. The NHC apparently discounted it as a local effect though (i.e. mesovortex) and not representative of the whole storm.


Interesting. Very interesting. I don't recall any other readings of that strength, so I can appreciate that stance. Although the wind radii of that strength was relatively small, Felix was very compact. Wouldn't surprise me if it had that much strength.

Won't be long before we do have another confirmed 190mph storm, perhaps even stronger...
Quoting P3EWO:
And if it was a hurricane and it maintains it's hurricane force winds, at what point does it stop being a hurricane? Where is the magic line??


A hurricane is a tropical cyclone, which is defined as organized convection around a nonfrontal warm-core low.

Although many strong extratropical cyclones also obtain a warm-core and even convection around the center during their peak stages, but this is referred to a warm seclusion and the warm-core is very shallow compared to tropical cyclones.
Quoting P3EWO:
From Websters....

Hurricane:

1 : a tropical cyclone with winds of 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour or greater that occurs especially in the western Atlantic, that is usually accompanied by rain, thunder, and lightning, and that sometimes moves into temperate latitudes %u2014 see beaufort scale table
2 : something resembling a hurricane especially in its turmoil.

From reading the article, it sounds like "European Windstorms" cause their share of TURMOIL.

And if it was a hurricane and it maintains it's hurricane force winds, at what point does it stop being a hurricane? Where is the magic line??


Simply, hurricanes are tropical and warm core.

Windstorms are super charged extratropical cyclones, and are cold core (I think). That's really the difference.

Yes, they do cause turmoil... Kyrill killed around 40, and caused over a billion damage. But even going through that (Looking through videos of hurricanes, it was a very similar experience. Winds very strong even though it's clear skies... then it darkens, wind gets stronger, and the rain just pelts down.. and so on.) I still wouldn't call it a hurricane.

Perhaps in a literary sense it may've been, but meteorological? It wasn't. Only way Europe can get a proper, honest hurricane is if another Faith or Vince occurs.

(Okay, or GW far beyond even the most apocalyptic predictions or an event of astronomical proportions, i.e. meteor hits the Northern Atlantic, warms the seas up considerably, and a hurricane may form, I guess. But excepting the extremes....)
Remember the outrageous recordings in Cuba with Gustav?
What was that....well over 200mph as I remember.


Supposedly the strongest winds ever recorded in a tropical cyclone.
220. N3EG
Quoting Jedkins01:



category 3?

No wonder europeans have started every world war, you guys are retarded lol.

Seriously man, you might want to educate yourself better category 3?, thats like calling Barrack Obama a conservative


I remember when someone was saying "Wow, 987mb! Amazing hurricane off the west coast of Mexico!" and I replied that there was a 987mb low heading for us in the Pacific Northwest - and guess which one made landfall? Pacific systems can be bigger than Tip, but they don't have the bells and whistles and flames painted on the hood.
The term hurricane is often used to describe winds in excess of 74 mph as well ("hurricane force"), although this obviously doesn't make the storm a hurricane:

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
410 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

CORRECT SYNOPSIS

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ172-221400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AKDT TUE OCT 21 2008

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 70 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.


SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT
FOR LINCOLN...ST. CHARLES...ST. LOUIS AND ST. LOUIS CITY COUNTIES...

AT 711 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH. SIREN
ACTIVATION IS SUGGESTED. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED OR ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM CENTREVILLE TO AFFTON TO WILDWOOD TO 11 MILES EAST OF
MONTGOMERY CITY...MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.
Quoting vortfix:
Remember the outrageous recordings in Cuba with Gustav?
What was that....well over 200mph as I remember.


Supposedly the strongest winds ever recorded in a tropical cyclone.


212mph gust, yes. "Ever recorded" is the subjective term. Have there been stronger winds than that? You bet. They just haven't been found - because the winds aren't the same on land, recon hasn't found it, or winds that strong simply destroys any recording device.

Camille and Allen - 190mph sustained - prob'ly had gusts stronger than that.
Quoting N3EG:


I remember when someone was saying "Wow, 987mb! Amazing hurricane off the west coast of Mexico!" and I replied that there was a 987mb low heading for us in the Pacific Northwest - and guess which one made landfall? Pacific systems can be bigger than Tip, but they don't have the bells and whistles and flames painted on the hood.


Last winter there was a storm that had winds to 200 mph (the NWS even actually said that in a discussion/advisory, they also even used the term "biblical proportions" to describe it), although in the mountains, they can also cause lots of damage as well, like one last winter.
'course if we wanna talk about really powerful storms, just gaze a few planets down the line...


"Around the Great Dark Spot, winds were measured blowing up to 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles) an hour, the fastest in our Solar System."

Should be noted... the 212 mph winds in Gustav were at landfall, by an official weather station and verified to be accurate (unlike the 236 mph winds in Paka in Guam in 1997), not ever recorded (Isabel had 240 mph winds recorded by recon, Rita also had 235 mph winds recorded).
Quoting MichaelSTL:
Should be noted... the 212 mph winds in Gustav were at landfall, by an official weather station and verified to be accurate (unlike the 236 mph winds in Paka in Guam in 1997), not ever recorded (Isabel had 240 mph winds recorded by recon, Rita also had 235 mph winds recorded).


Oh, lord, I hate that word 'Isabel', caused a 2 inch deep cut in my stomach, I doubt Isabel was a Category 2 at landfall if were I lived I recorded 2 seperate 130 or very close to 130 MPH Wind gusts.
is there something going on with the sat. links on the nhc site? i can pull up only a few that I would like to see.
Just wanted to get your opinions on my new style for forecasting. On Facebook, I send out updates regarding the weather to friends and this is the one I sent a short while ago. This is for Florida weather, by the way.

Now, onto the Wacky World of Weather. Got some mixed news. I'll start with the bad and end with the good since too many times in my updates have I had bad news. Gotta mix it up, you know what I'm saying.

Starting today, Southern and Central Florida will get very wet as there's a clash occuring overhead. Got a strong warm front moving up the peninsula while a "Big Mamma" cold front comes rolling in late Saturday. As we all learned in school, when warm and cold air collide, it ain't going to be pretty. No severe weather is expected, but heavy rainfall could lead to some flooding over the next few days.

Now, onto the good news. No need to worry about the tropics for quite some time. This "Big Mamma" cold front won't take crap from any tropical systems and will throw them out the proverbial door before they have the chance to enter.

Not only with this "Big Mamma" cold front protect us from the tropics, but it will bring some cold air down the peninsula. Been watching the computer models and coordinating with the NWS and it seems like we're fixing to get quite a shock to the system. Over the past few days, forecasted temperatures have continued to decrease statewide for next week. In my update tomorrow, I'll have detailed digits for you.

Well, peace out everyone and get ready for some rumbling in the jungle the next few days before "Big Mamma" cold front comes sweeping on through to reclaim the jungle.
Quoting StormW:
Is it just me, or is there some rotation starting near 17N;84W?


Don't usually see you asking for confirmation like this. I'll check it out right now.
cchs...earlier today they had the low temp. for weds. morning (West Palm) at 49. Now, they have upped it to 57. What changed?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Don't usually see you asking for confirmation like this. I'll check it out right now.


Gotta say that there does appear to be some rotation developing right around those coordinates. Will be keeping an eye on that area now.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
cchs...earlier today they had the low temp. for weds. morning (West Palm) at 49. Now, they have upped it to 57. What changed?


Don't know. By the way, when I say "coordinated with the NWS", that means I used their data and discussions. Don't have an inside source to the NWS.
BTW Will be updating my site tomorrow morning.
Possibly could turn extra tropical the spin in the W carribean? It would be quite a specticle to see if it did.
Quoting StormW:
Is it just me, or is there some rotation starting near 17N;84W?


Good evening everyone...

StormW... My take in regards that circulation. It is just a deceiving little swirl... at least for now convergence/divergence values at low/upper levels respectively are not indicative of a developing low. Don't see any SFC backing of anything at low levels yet.

Of course not saying something can develop but for now is not there.
Afternoon :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Hi Orca...

In regards the forecast models... there seems to be some additional hesitation by the GFS in moving this next cold front too fast across FL and from what I can see it seems to be leaning a bit more towards the NOGAPS in which a complete FROPA won't happen until late Saturday N FL to Sunday Afternoon/Evening S FL.

Will be interesting to see if the large ULL on the Central CONUS moves N to NE while taking away the energy needed to push the front through FL without a reinforcing shot.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Oh, lord, I hate that word 'Isabel', caused a 2 inch deep cut in my stomach, I doubt Isabel was a Category 2 at landfall if were I lived I recorded 2 seperate 130 or very close to 130 MPH Wind gusts.


Can we count the wind speed of a solar flare as it reaches the earths upper atmosphere?
In that case wind speeds of 369000 m/s or 823,000 mph is that the fastest winds ever recorded?
226. StormW 10:01 PM GMT on October 23, 2008
Is it just me, or is there some rotation starting near 17N;84W?


My kids were just playing opposite day. I think the same game is going on here.
nice banding dragging in moisture
Heavy rain is now rapidly moving east toward Fl. Very wet night ahead. I expect this system may stick around a little longer than expected as the low is a little stronger than previously forecast. I don't see the front coming through until at least Saturday evening for Tampa area.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232326
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST PRIMARILY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.



244. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 240001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
THE 59TH TROPICAL WAVE OF THIS SEASON HAS EMERGED OFF THE WEST
COAST OF AFRICA TODAY AND IS ANALYZED ON THE 1800 UTC MAP ALONG
16W SOUTH OF 15N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM
CIMSS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN THE WAVE AXIS AND THE
AFRICAN COAST. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM ALSO DEPICTS THE WWD
PROPAGATION OF THE WAVE SINCE YESTERDAY. INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATES MOVE THE WAVE WWD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 16W-19W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE BEHIND THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
9N13W AND 6N14W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE INTERSECTION
OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ. AN 850 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM
SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. SWLY
FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED TO THE WEST OF
THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS KEEPING MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL BEHIND
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 48W-52W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AHEAD OF THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ENHANCING CONVECTION BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA
ALONG 86 S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND IS
HELPING TO INDUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER
PARTS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THIS WAVE EXTENDS SOUTH INTO
THE EPAC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 7N25W 9N40W 11N53W 10N62W.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 24W-28W AND
WITHIN 50-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR
TAMPICO MEXICO. AS SUGGESTED BY THE COMPUTER MODELS...A 1012 MB
SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N90W
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING MAINLY EWD ALONG 28N86W TO NEAR THE
TAMPA BAY AREA. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVER
THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE N OF THE
WARM FRONT. ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS IS ALSO SEEN OVER THE SE GULF
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT
ACROSS THE NE GULF AND NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY FRI AND WILL BE NE
OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...THE COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SE AND MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW
PRES MOVING SLOWLY NE OVER THE SE CONUS. MODERATE TO STRONG NLY
WINDS ARE FOUND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED
FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NE PORTION OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FRIDAY MORNING. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND
PRODUCE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION BY
TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER IS
APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.
FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED JUST
WEST OF JAMAICA DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN AND CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS UPPER HIGH...AND ONLY LOW TOPPED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ARE SEEN. CONVECTION HAS FLARED-UP OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA LIKELY DUE TO THE COLOMBIAN OR PANAMANIAN LOW ANALYZED
1008 NEAR 8N75W. MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
AFFECTING PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N60W THEN CONTINUES MAINLY
WWD TO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W. A NARROW BAND OF
MAINLY LOW CLOUDS IS RELATED TO THIS FRONT. A STRONG HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER THE NE CONUS IS BEHIND THE FRONT. PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS OVER
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH...
REFLECTION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC ALONG 31N53W 25N54W. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE E ATLC LARGELY IN
PART TO A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE E ATLC E OF 40W. ALOFT...A
RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA. THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
EXTENDS A RIDGE NWD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE W ATLC. ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND THE W
ATLC WEST OF 70W AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMS EAST FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N53W. THIS LOW HAS A TROUGH EXTENDING SW
INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND A WEAK RIDGE TO THE EAST
CENTERED NEAR 30N38W IS GENERATING A WIDE BAND OF MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS BETWEEN
48W-53W FROM THE ITCZ TO 31N. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
SPINNING OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 20N31W. A JET-STREAM BRANCH IS
AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH PRODUCING A BAND OF TRANSVERSE
HIGH CLOUDS WHICH EXTENDS FROM 10N35W ALL THE WAY NE CROSSING SE
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WEST AFRICA.

$$
GR



239 - snotly

Wind speeds: 369,000 miles/sec X 60(sec in a min) = 22,140,000 miles/min X 60(min in an hour) = 1,328,400,000 miles/hour.

I would think that wind speed would qualify!!
It's faster than my motorcycle for sure!!
Good Evening. In for a short.....
The very heavy rains that were expected never fell here. At least one school, in Tobago, was closed for the day in anticipation.
I am surprised. The sat.images and the forecast called for more than continual drizzle all day long. Not raining now.
All in all, a nice, cool, damp one.

Overall, all systems seem to be in remission in the Atl and the GOM and Carib. Sea.
Still time for something to get going, but looking less likely each day.
..especially with all that dry air out in the Alt.
Quoting RTLSNK:
239 - snotly

Wind speeds: 369,000 miles/sec X 60(sec in a min) = 22,140,000 miles/min X 60(min in an hour) = 1,328,400,000 miles/hour.

I would think that wind speed would qualify!!
It's faster than my motorcycle for sure!!


I think that has extra zeros in it; the solar wind is up to 800 kilometers per second according to this. Still pretty fast, 1.8 million mph.

Of course, that is kind of irrelevant to the discussion at hand, which was highest winds recorded at ground level (much higher winds have been recorded aloft but not on the ground) and specifically in hurricanes.
248 - MichaelSTL

Thanks Michael, great link, clicked on the left question mark - From London to New York in seven seconds, would have to make sure I didn't have breakfast before that flight!!LOL
UKMET and some other models are predicting a particularly strong extratropical system to hit the East coast of Canada and the US. By the way, the notion that non-warm core storms never reach winds above a minimal cat. 1 is just wrong. What about some cold-core tornadoes? In 1990, a series of "unprecedented" extratropical storms hit Britain, and winds in the English Channel consistently reached over 120 km/h. Also, some models regularly predict cat. 2 and above winds for some extratropical systems, especially GFDL with Ike during one model run in Southern Ontario, and just yesterday 2/5 models roughly depicted a weekend windspeed of over 64 kt for my location in Ontario, but luckily the models are now easing off on that crazy forecast. Extratropical storms frequently reach 70+ kt around Alaska. Also, sorry if this is off-topic or if the discussion has ended, but although Wikipedia has some bad information sometimes, most well-developed articles, especially those on tropical cyclones, are kept rather accurate and up-to-date and clear of vandalism. I personally check my watchlist, which contains over 1000 pages and is a user list on Wikipedia of articles that you are watching for new edits, several times a week and I revert, or change back to its original version, vandalism on sight. Some people even patrol all recent changes to the entire website, and there are like several per second, can you believe that?! Anyway, a lot of models are still depicting the remnants of 91L to affect SE CONUS.
Here is a good example of an extratropical system over Iceland that is currently producing hurricane force winds (the analyzed winds here are not surface winds, but 104 kts aloft certainly translates to 80-90 kts at the surface):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Quoting WxLogic:
Hi Orca...

In regards the forecast models... there seems to be some additional hesitation by the GFS in moving this next cold front too fast across FL and from what I can see it seems to be leaning a bit more towards the NOGAPS in which a complete FROPA won't happen until late Saturday N FL to Sunday Afternoon/Evening S FL.

Will be interesting to see if the large ULL on the Central CONUS moves N to NE while taking away the energy needed to push the front through FL without a reinforcing shot.


I doubt the low will move in that direction since where not in a La Nina event. Which is infamous for Floridian stalled out frontal boundaries.
1. THE W/M-LOPAR OVER WC-AR-SEA AND ADJ GULF OF ADEN HAS BECOME UNIMPORTANT(.)

(The well marked low pressure area over West Central Arabian Sea and adjoining Gulf of Aden has become unimportant)

2. THE LOPAR OVER SE & ADJ EC-AR-SEA PERSISTS(.)
SYSTEM IS LIKELY BECOME MORE MARKED(.)


(The low pressure area over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea persists and is likely to become more marked)

3. THE TRGH OF LOW AT S L OVER SW & ADJ WC-BAY OF BENGAL OFF AP - T-NADU COTS PERSISTS(.)

(The trough of low at Sri Lanka and southwest and adjoining west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts persists.

----

Indian Ocean sure got active all of a sudden.
Area 1 is (ARB02-2008)
Area 2 is (99A)
Area 3 is (90B)
MichaelSTL....Do you happen to know the temp there?
Checked in for the first time in three days... too long. Last time I checked, we were all saying 91L was going to become Paloma. Thankfully, it didn't. Can someone catch me up to date?
Presslord,

Check out this page, has all the iceland info
Rob...Thanks!!!
no wonder they call it ICEland.....
If you thought Iceland was cold, look at Greenland temperatures below 20F in some areas.
I'm terribly allergic to cold weather...though I know some folks love it....
Nuuk, Greenland (Capital)

17F Partly Cloudy, windchill 1F
Quoting presslord:
MichaelSTL....Do you happen to know the temp there?


You can look it up using the Search box (just put in Iceland); here is a selection of some of the stations; looks pretty nasty there although the highest wind are to the west according to the GFS analysis posted above:


Bolungavik 33 °F / 1 °C 94% 28.32 in / 959 hPa Light Snow NNE at 40 mph / 65 km/h

Keflavik 34 °F / 1 °C 70% 28.38 in / 961 hPa Mostly Cloudy WNW at 47 mph / 76 km/h / 21.1 m/s

Kirkjubaejarklaustur 36 °F / 2 °C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

Reykjavik 36 °F / 2 °C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

Stykkisholmur 36 °F / 2 °C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s
1F?!?!?!?!?!?! think I'll have to pass....
Quoting MichaelSTL:


You can look it up using the Search box (just put in Iceland); here is a selection of some of the stations; looks pretty nasty there although the highest wind are to the west according to the GFS analysis posted above:


Bolungavik 33 F / 1 C 94% 28.32 in / 959 hPa Light Snow NNE at 40 mph / 65 km/h

Keflavik 34 F / 1 C 70% 28.38 in / 961 hPa Mostly Cloudy WNW at 47 mph / 76 km/h / 21.1 m/s

Kirkjubaejarklaustur 36 F / 2 C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

Reykjavik 36 F / 2 C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s

Stykkisholmur 36 F / 2 C 81% 28.29 in / 958 hPa Light Showers Rain Snow WNW at 44 mph / 70 km/h / 19.5 m/s


We're below those right now in MI. Not nearly that windy tho. The pure temperature is below those given, tho. I love cold weather!!
MichaelSTL...that's rather interesting....thanks...
For true cold, there is Vostok:

Vostok, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 7 min 43 sec ago
Overcast
-76 °F / -60 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: -84 °F / -64 °C
Wind: 9 mph / 15 km/h / from the West
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in / hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 12.0 miles / 20.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Elevation: 11220 ft / 3420 m


Extended Forecast
Updated: 6:00 AM VOST on October 23, 2008

Friday
Overcast. High: -61° F. / -52° C. Wind SW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.

Friday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -85° F. / -65° C. Wind WSW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.


These are the warmest places in Antarctica right now, the ones at or above 32 degrees:


Base Arturo Prat 33 °F / 0 °C 81% 29.13 in / 986 hPa Partly Cloudy WNW at 9 mph / 15 km/h

Base Jubany 33 °F / 1 °C 46% 29.11 in / 986 hPa Overcast Calm

Base Esperanza 32 °F / 0 °C 63% 29.07 in / 984 hPa Scattered Clouds West at 16 mph / 26 km/h

Base Orcadas 32 °F / 0 °C 87% 29.51 in / 999 hPa Overcast NNW at 17 mph / 28 km/h

Palmer Station 32 °F / 0 °C 64% 28.95 in / 980 hPa Fog ENE at 22 mph / 36 km/h
Whaa.......Iceland/Greenland - sure sounds like GW to me. Great weather (except for the rain) in Central Florida.
Quoting conchygirl:
Whaa.......Iceland/Greenland - sure sounds like GW to me.


???
Quoting MichaelSTL:
For true cold, there is Vostok:


I may like cold, but not that much.
I knew a guy who sailed into Baffin Bay in a steel hulled sailboat in September....he intentionally got himself iced in...just himself...stayed that way 'til May....just to get away from it all....wrote a book about it....very weird dude...,
Quoting MichaelSTL:
For true cold, there is Vostok:

Vostok, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 7 min 43 sec ago
Overcast
-76 °F / -60 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: -84 °F / -64 °C
Wind: 9 mph / 15 km/h / from the West
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in / hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 12.0 miles / 20.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Elevation: 11220 ft / 3420 m


Extended Forecast
Updated: 6:00 AM VOST on October 23, 2008

Friday
Overcast. High: -61° F. / -52° C. Wind SW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.

Friday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -85° F. / -65° C. Wind WSW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.




Doesn't the high elevation of the weather station make it colder? I would love to see it closer to the surface, although I think it would still be very cold.
Quoting hurristat:


We're below those right now in MI. Not nearly that windy tho. The pure temperature is below those given, tho. I love cold weather!!


I like it too, as long as it comes with this (no snow = wasted cold):

Lambert-St. Louis International Airport
Lat: 38.76 Lon: -90.37 Elev: 568
Last Update on Feb 1, 1:51 am CDT
Heavy Thunderstorm Snow Fog
Temperature: 23°F (-5°C)
Humidity: 85 %
Wind Speed: NW 13 MPH
Barometer: 29.82" (1011.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 19°F (-7°C)
Wind Chill: 11°F (-12°C)
Visibility: 0.25 mi.



(usually not like this though; last winter was a once in several decades, at least, event; unfortunately none of the snow stayed around for more than a few days-week, a few days after the storm above it reached 75 degrees, then we had that infamous tornado outbreak)
On an extremely unrelated topic, there is a hurricane in this animated satellite sequence. Helene is in the extreme left. You can see it at the end of the cycle. And the remnants of Gordon are N of England.

Link
Quoting MichaelSTL:


???
sorry Michael - I wasn't clear here but really don't buy into GW!
Quoting MichaelSTL:
For true cold, there is Vostok:

Vostok, Antarctica (Airport)
Updated: 1 hr 7 min 43 sec ago
Overcast
-76 °F / -60 °C
Overcast
Humidity: 33%
Dew Point: -84 °F / -64 °C
Wind: 9 mph / 15 km/h / from the West
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: in / hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 12.0 miles / 20.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Elevation: 11220 ft / 3420 m


Extended Forecast
Updated: 6:00 AM VOST on October 23, 2008

Friday
Overcast. High: -61° F. / -52° C. Wind SW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.

Friday Night
Partly Cloudy. Low: -85° F. / -65° C. Wind WSW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.


These are the warmest places in Antarctica right now, the ones at or above 32 degrees:


Base Arturo Prat 33 °F / 0 °C 81% 29.13 in / 986 hPa Partly Cloudy WNW at 9 mph / 15 km/h

Base Jubany 33 °F / 1 °C 46% 29.11 in / 986 hPa Overcast Calm

Base Esperanza 32 °F / 0 °C 63% 29.07 in / 984 hPa Scattered Clouds West at 16 mph / 26 km/h

Base Orcadas 32 °F / 0 °C 87% 29.51 in / 999 hPa Overcast NNW at 17 mph / 28 km/h

Palmer Station 32 °F / 0 °C 64% 28.95 in / 980 hPa Fog ENE at 22 mph / 36 km/h


All of my eyes and Russia's eyes are on Vostok.
Soyuz TMA-16 is coming home, last mission they were almost killed when the Soyuz came in backwards with 10 gs and near disintegration of the vehicle. They aren't sure they fixed the problem.
Quoting stormdude77:

Doesn't the high elevation of the weather station make it colder? I would love to see it closer to the surface, although I think it would still be very cold.


It does; even in the tropics you can get snow on high mountains; for example, I have seen blizzard warnings for the peaks in Hawaii (it always looks really weird to look at the NWS map for Hawaii and see winter weather advisories), there is also Mount Kilimanjaro; at least for now.
273. MichaelSTL

I like it when the snow comes like that. Due to the Great Lakes, the systems roll off with a ton of water, so we got 10 inches 4 or 5 times last year. Fortunately, it all got compacted before the next big storm. Except once. We had 15 inches of snow on the ground. It made it hard to sled. :(
Quoting conchygirl:
sorry Michael - I wasn't clear here but really don't buy into GW!


It is a confirmed fact (not going to go into how and why we know, etc); if you don't believe it is happening, then pity on you!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It is a confirmed fact (not going to go into how and why we know, etc); if you don't believe it is happening, then pity on you!
your opinion!
Quoting hurristat:
On an extremely unrelated topic, there is a hurricane in this animated satellite sequence. Helene is in the extreme left. You can see it at the end of the cycle. And the remnants of Gordon are N of England.

Link


That says March 29...
Cotillion:
No worries.

Though if you don't wanna take Wiki... try this:

Link

118mph, Cat 3. (Yes, not sustained. That's why I say 'up to.')

Link

Yes, it's Wiki, but look at all the footnotes. (The 140mph recording - Cat 4 - was on high elevation, however. Another of 132mph as well, though also on high elevation. Others on sea level around 100mph, Cat 2. Possibly stronger.)








Yeah I think its safe to say, no matter where you live in the world, you can be hit, by dangerously powerfull storms lol
Quoting stormdude77:


Yes, but when you're in the middle of the continent with the highest average land height plus a lot of snow, like half a mile of it, and at the S Pole, you can't really do much about anything.
off topic..but John McCain's Joe the Plumber is not a plumber...not registered to vote...and is going after a book deal...I Love America!!!!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


That says March 29...


What I think is cool in that loop, it shows the March 29 Solar Eclipse from orbit!
Quoting conchygirl:
your opinion!


If you are in Florida, I wouldn't care about opinions, I would prepare for the worst. Nothing good ever came of preparing for the best, i.e. doing nothing.
I usually bag the blog after tropical season.....think I'll stick around this year....might learn something about winter weather.....
Quoting conchygirl:
your opinion!


Care to tell me why you disagree with all of the scientists who know much more than you do (and yes, those scientists have examined every other possibility as well and none have been able to explain the warming over the last century, which is far outside of natural variations anyway, especially considering that we had been cooling since the interglacial peak ~8000 years ago)? Or is it just a "stick my head into the sand like an ostrich and believe whatever I want to" belief?
Quoting hurristat:


If you are in Florida, I wouldn't care about opinions, I would prepare for the worst. Nothing good ever came of preparing for the best, i.e. doing nothing.
Right!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Care to tell me why you disagree with all of the scientists who know much more than you do (and yes, those scientists have examined every other possibility as well and none have been able to explain the warming over the last century, which is far outside of natural variations anyway, especially considering that we had been cooling since the interglacial peak ~8000 years ago)? Or is it just a "stick my head into the sand like an ostrich and believe whatever I want to" belief?
All the scientists? I am married to one who disagrees!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What I think is cool in that loop, it shows the March 29 Solar Eclipse from orbit!


I didn't notice that; I thought something looked strange though, although I was looking more at the Atlantic.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


What I think is cool in that loop, it shows the March 29 Solar Eclipse from orbit!


I typed in Satellite September 22, 2006 Eclipse on Google images, and that came up!!! aaaah!! still, it's cool looking.
Quoting conchygirl:
All the scientists? I am married to one who disagrees!


Is he a climate scientist (otherwise your argument is null)? And just how does he disagree if so?
Quoting conchygirl:
Right!


Which means preparing for Global Warming, whether it exists or not.
Quoting presslord:
I usually bag the blog after tropical season.....think I'll stick around this year....might learn something about winter weather.....


was thinking that myself. Already learning stuff this year. Never paid much attention, 'cause for us winter means a night or two in the 30s in between a couple weeks of nice weather.
Yea, anywere you prepare for the worse.
I remember Bill O'reilly saying that 'Hurricane Ike was all Hype'. Personally I say thats got to be one of the greatest screw ups that Ole bill Ever did.
Quoting RobDaHood:


was thinking that myself. Already learning stuff this year. Never paid much attention, 'cause for us winter means a night or two in the 30s in between a couple weeks of nice weather.


Come up North sometime... It's well worth it. If you don't want to experience true winter, then stay in FL.

Also, sometimes it's funny. There's a steep hill near where I live, and it was snowing like crazy, and cars were having problems climbing the hill. LOL!!
298. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening. In for a short.....
The very heavy rains that were expected never fell here. At least one school, in Tobago, was closed for the day in anticipation.
I am surprised. The sat.images and the forecast called for more than continual drizzle all day long. Not raining now.
All in all, a nice, cool, damp one.

Overall, all systems seem to be in remission in the Atl and the GOM and Carib. Sea.
Still time for something to get going, but looking less likely each day.

Hi pottery
It rained by me,1 3/4 inches
The gfs model has an ugly looking blob right on top of us for tomorrow,watch out...
Don't forget this gem from Mr. O'Reilly...

On the January 15 edition of Fox News' The O'Reilly Factor, host Bill O'Reilly said of Shawn Hornbeck -- who was abducted at the age of 11, held for four years, and recently found in Missouri -- that "there was an element here that this kid liked about this circumstances" and that he "do[esn't] buy" "the Stockholm syndrome thing." O'Reilly also said: "The situation here for this kid looks to me to be a lot more fun than what he had under his old parents. He didn't have to go to school. He could run around and do whatever he wanted." When fellow Fox News host Greta Van Susteren pointed out that "[s]ome kids like school," O'Reilly replied: "Well, I don't believe this kid did."

Quoting MichaelSTL:


Care to tell me why you disagree with all of the scientists who know much more than you do (and yes, those scientists have examined every other possibility as well and none have been able to explain the warming over the last century, which is far outside of natural variations anyway, especially considering that we had been cooling since the interglacial peak ~8000 years ago)? Or is it just a "stick my head into the sand like an ostrich and believe whatever I want to" belief?
We are warming, we are coming out of an ice age and could be warming for many thousands of years until we reach the peak of the interglacial stage (if that occurs, but the last 2M years indicates it probably will). Believe in GW from that perspective, with some effect likely caused by man, according to the National Academy of Sciences. The variation that we have been seeing over the last several decades has been well identified as highs and lows within multi-decadal climate variability
Quoting hurristat:


Come up North sometime... It's well worth it. If you don't want to experience true winter, then stay in FL.


Been there, snowmobiles, skiing, sledding, all fun, but wouldn't want to deal with it on a daily basis.
yea Rob.....we get very little cold here ...maybe a couple weeks in the 30's....
Quoting hurristat:


Which means preparing for Global Warming, whether it exists or not.


It does exist; see these:





Note that the first graph marks 2004, but it needs to be moved upwards now to about +0.55*C, the end of the trendline, yearly variations of course are just weather noise; 2008 will be lower than the last few years but that is just La Nina; temperatures are recovering quite nicely, in contrary of the "AN ICE AGE IS COMING!!!" alarmists who don't know how to read trends or think that every year has to be warmer than the last.

Here is an interesting current weekly surface anomaly map:

Born and raised in so. fla. love our version of cold weather...disappointed that the coming cold front will not drop temps. as earlier predicted.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It does exist; see these:





Note that the first graph marks 2004, but it needs to be moved upwards now to about +0.55*C, the end of the trendline, yearly variations of course are just weather noise; 2008 will be lower than the last few years but that is just La Nina; temperatures are recovering quite nicely, in contrary of the "AN ICE AGE IS COMING!!!" alarmists who don't know how to read trends or think that every year has to be warmer than the last.

Here is an interesting current weekly surface anomaly map:

The first graph shows the variability since the last glacial stage but do not be fooled by a small snapshot in time that falls within the multi-decadal period.
Quoting presslord:


Looks like it's pretty comfy there now.

I gotta run...Have a nice evening, buddy!
Quoting conchygirl:
We are warming, we are coming out of an ice age and could be warming for many thousands of years until we reach the peak of the interglacial stage (if that occurs, but the last 2M years indicates it probably will). Believe in GW from that perspective, with some effect likely caused by man, according to the National Academy of Sciences. The variation that we have been seeing over the last several decades has been well identified as highs and lows within multi-decadal climate variability


That is a void argument; look at my last post and compare the temperature variations since the ice age and then over the last century; that is exceptionally unusual. Also, greenhouse gasses certainly can and have caused drastic climate changes; ever hear of the PETM event? That was caused by large methane releases, similar (but not as fast) as the rate at which we are adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere - temperatures rose by about 6*C and mass extinctions occurred, the Earth was also ice-free:

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum lasted around 20,000 years, and was superimposed on a 6 million year period of more gradual global warming,[6] peaking later in the Eocene at the "Eocene climatic optimum". Other "hyperthermal" events can be recognised during this period of cooling, including the Elmo event (ETM2). During these events, of which the PETM was by far the most severe, around 1,500 to 2,000 gigatons of carbon were released into the ocean/atmosphere system over the course of 1,000 years. This rate of carbon addition almost equals the rate at which carbon is being released into the atmosphere today through anthropogenic activity.


Also, how do explain a relatively constant temperature over billions of years despite the fact that the sun was initially only 70% as bright as today?
no one has any thoughts about the "area" near 18n,83W?????been trying to work to the surface for about 8 hrs now,moving north...
Last night's low here was 28 degrees. We're supposed to get snow on Monday. YAY!!
Quoting MichaelSTL:


It does exist; see these:


Never doubted its existence; just saying that so Conchygirl doesn't flip out when we force our opinions upon her.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


That is a void argument; look at my last post and compare the temperature variations since the ice age and then over the last century; that is exceptionally unusual. Also, greenhouse gasses certainly can and have caused drastic climate changes; ever hear of the PETM event? That was caused by large methane releases, similar (but not as fast) as the rate at which we are adding greenhouse gasses to the atmosphere - temperatures rose by about 6*C and mass extinctions occurred, the Earth was also ice-free:


The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum lasted around 20,000 years, and was superimposed on a 6 million year period of more gradual global warming,[6] peaking later in the Eocene at the "Eocene climatic optimum". Other "hyperthermal" events can be recognised during this period of cooling, including the Elmo event (ETM2). During these events, of which the PETM was by far the most severe, around 1,500 to 2,000 gigatons of carbon were released into the ocean/atmosphere system over the course of 1,000 years. This rate of carbon addition almost equals the rate at which carbon is being released into the atmosphere today through anthropogenic activity.


Also, how do explain a relatively constant temperature over billions of years despite the fact that the sun was initially only 70% as bright as today?
You probably believed that in the 50's, we were going into another little ice age. That was the hype of that period by gloom and doom 'scientists'. Perhaps we agree to disagree and all is good!
Quoting conchygirl:
The first graph shows the variability since the last glacial stage but do not be fooled by a small snapshot in time that falls within the multi-decadal period.




What multi-decadal variability, and due to what (yeas, there is the AMO and PDO, but these certainly can't cause a warming trend over a century or more, especially since the oceans are gaining heat)? The Sun? Not according to Leif Svalgaard, who suggests that while there is a long-term cycle in solar cycle variations, currently we are in a phase similar to 100 years ago (that is, declining since 1950, which is also when most of the recent warming has occurred). And you are not getting it either; it is warmer right now than any other time in the recent interglacial period.
Hi everyone. Had some real strong thunderstorms last night and I think I hear thunder rumbling in the distance again. Boy, we have been getting our share of rain this past week.
Quoting MichaelSTL:




What multi-decadal variability, and due to what (yeas, there is the AMO and PDO, but these certainly can't cause a warming trend over a century or more, especially since the oceans are gaining heat)? The Sun? Not according to Leif Svalgaard, who suggests that while there is a long-term cycle in solar cycle variations, currently we are in a phase similar to 100 years ago (that is, declining since 1950, which is also when most of the recent warming has occurred). And you are not getting it either; it is warmer right now than any other time in the recent interglacial period.
You must be familiar with some of the information out of Scripps?
Quoting conchygirl:
You probably believed that in the 50's, we were going into another little ice age. That was the hype of that period by gloom and doom 'scientists'. Perhaps we agree to disagree and all is good!


LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO!!!!

I wasn't even here in the 1950s, and that was mostly due to media hype, not sound scientific reasoning (the science was the discovery of Milankovitch cycles and the timing of them, and any predictions were for the long term, thousands of years; the media made it sound as it it was imminent). Plus, we know know that the cooling in the 50s-70s was mostly due to industrial aerosols, this is backed up by no cooling in the Southern Hemisphere at that time (little industry or pollution down there).

Frankly, I think you are a troll who deserves to be permanently added to my **** lists (you can guess what that means when I no longer acknowledge that you even exist).
Quoting MichaelSTL:




What multi-decadal variability, and due to what (yeas, there is the AMO and PDO, but these certainly can't cause a warming trend over a century or more, especially since the oceans are gaining heat)? The Sun? Not according to Leif Svalgaard, who suggests that while there is a long-term cycle in solar cycle variations, currently we are in a phase similar to 100 years ago (that is, declining since 1950, which is also when most of the recent warming has occurred). And you are not getting it either; it is warmer right now than any other time in the recent interglacial period.


I'll debate with someone on this topic, and when I use this stuff, it completely turns them off from the subject and they get bored with it, so I win but I would have had more fun if they kept going. This is why I love this blog. No matter how technical you get in meteorological or climatological terms, someone will understand you.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO!!!!

I wasn't even here in the 1950s, and that was mostly due to media hype, not sound scientific reasoning (the science was the discovery of Milankovitch cycles and the timing of them, and any predictions were for the long term, thousands of years; the media made it sound as it it was imminent). Plus, we know know that the cooling in the 50s-70s was mostly due to industrial aerosols, this is backed up by no cooling in the Southern Hemisphere at that time (little industry or pollution down there).

Frankly, I think you are an troll who deserves to be permanently added to my **** lists (you can guess what that means when I no longer acknowledge that you even exist).
I guess I struck a nerve regarding your hypotheses. Really not a troll. Good bye!
Night all. Have fun following TD17-E... and fighting to the death about Global Warming.
Quoting hurristat:
Night all. Have fun following TD17-E... and fighting to the death about Global Warming.
GW is always a stimulating topic. LOL
Good evening.. slow tonight :)
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Quoting MichaelSTL:


LOLLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLO!!!!

I wasn't even here in the 1950s, and that was mostly due to media hype, not sound scientific reasoning (the science was the discovery of Milankovitch cycles and the timing of them, and any predictions were for the long term, thousands of years; the media made it sound as it it was imminent). Plus, we know know that the cooling in the 50s-70s was mostly due to industrial aerosols, this is backed up by no cooling in the Southern Hemisphere at that time (little industry or pollution down there).

Frankly, I think you are a troll who deserves to be permanently added to my **** lists (you can guess what that means when I no longer acknowledge that you even exist).


Shes a troll for having a different opinion? Just confused...dont ignore me for this question.
DId everyone leave ?
Conchy is definitely not a troll. She's here a lot and always polite and friendly.

Many here will not even get involved in this type of discussion because it is almost impossible to discuss online in a productive manner. Have had some good discussions with people face to face but as far as the internet goes, it is on my list along with religion and politics that I stay away from.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Conchy is definitely not a troll. She's here a lot and always polite and friendly.

Many here will not even get involved in this type of discussion because it is almost impossible to discuss online in a productive manner. Have had some good discussions with people face to face but as far as the internet goes, it is on my list along with religion and politics that I stay away from.
Thanks Rob. I typically stay away from these discussions too but was drawn into it tonight! Work tomorrow so off soon!
Evening folks, coastal flood warning, small craft warnings, and rip tide warnings. A bit chilly, nice tonight - but rain is coming tomorrow.

303. MichaelSTL
Michael, I am not a scientist, have never been married to a scientist, however from a laypersons view
First Graph
The first graph comes courtesy of "GlobalWarmingArt.com". Possibly not the most unbiased source around. In any case, I am not sure what the different colors of the lines are supposed to mean, so perhaps that it why it makes not sense to me. It looks like at about 10,000BP, the temperature variations seem all over the place as the world warms. It looks like the graph is saying that at 2004, the temp variations is about -(MINUS) 0.25 from the norm. I cannot be reading this right, because I do not see the global warming part.

The second graph
Does not match the first - In the first graph, from about 4000BP to 2004, the variation is below the zero mark. On the second graph shows a steady rise from about 1960 above the zero mark. Both graphs cannot be correct, or we are comparing apples and oranges. I am assuming that you know that equating changes from 1880 - 2000 as climatic changes is sort of silly, and does not give merit to your thesis.

Third graph - Current WEEK?

I am not saying Global Warming does not exist, certainly our planet has experienced it before.
But then our planet has also experience Global Cooling.

There are many other reasons to be careful to avoid poisoning our environment.

Also I suspect there is much more grant money available to scientist proving Global Warming.
There was a time when every authority knew that the sun travels around the earth. I become very nervous when only scientists who agree with a thesis are considered valid
325. conchygirl

no problem, nite conchy.
I'm with you on that rob, but the rays are roasting their philly tonight 4 zip so far top of the 7th
I think I should add, while I think most of the warming over the past century is likely due to increasing levels of greenhouse gasses (from human sources), there is no doubt natural variability as well, most notably, the year to year variations which are mostly due to ENSO, up to +/-0.2*C for the strongest events; this year we had a strong La Nina which certainly had a big impact for the first half of the year although recent months have been closer to the last few years and it appears that 2008 may not be quite as cool as some forecasts, currently at +0.39 with last month being +0.49, one forecast called for it to be around +0.37, note also that the forecast considered other things as well, although I don't take these individual yearly forecasts very seriously since that is more weather than climate, especially long-term climate.
328. keywestbrat

Hey,

sounds good to me. Tim must be thrilled.
Quoting keywestbrat:
I'm with you on that rob, but the rays are roasting their philly tonight 4 zip so far top of the 7th
Go Rays!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Evening folks, coastal flood warning, small craft warnings, and rip tide warnings. A bit chilly, nice tonight - but rain is coming tomorrow.

303. MichaelSTL
Michael, I am not a scientist, have never been married to a scientist, however from a laypersons view
First Graph
The first graph comes courtesy of "GlobalWarmingArt.com". Possibly not the most unbiased source around. In any case, I am not sure what the different colors of the lines are supposed to mean, so perhaps that it why it makes not sense to me. It looks like at about 10,000BP, the temperature variations seem all over the place as the world warms. It looks like the graph is saying that at 2004, the temp variations is about -(MINUS) 0.25 from the norm. I cannot be reading this right, because I do not see the global warming part.

The second graph
Does not match the first - In the first graph, from about 4000BP to 2004, the variation is below the zero mark. On the second graph shows a steady rise from about 1960 above the zero mark. Both graphs cannot be correct, or we are comparing apples and oranges. I am assuming that you know that equating changes from 1880 - 2000 as climatic changes is sort of silly, and does not give merit to your thesis.

Third graph - Current WEEK?

I am not saying Global Warming does not exist, certainly our planet has experienced it before.
But then our planet has also experience Global Cooling.

There are many other reasons to be careful to avoid poisoning our environment.

Also I suspect there is much more grant money available to scientist proving Global Warming.
There was a time when every authority knew that the sun travels around the earth. I become very nervous when only scientists who agree with a thesis are considered valid


First, the black line is the average of all of those proxies (collectively they are more accurate than individually), and if you look at the scale the point marked 2004 is clearly above the zero line, not below.

Second, you misread the first graph, which also cannot accurately show the very brief last century (the first is in 2,000 year increments).

Third, the recent monthly trend has been of warming as the globe recovers from La Nina (September was +0.49*C, above the yearly average so far of +0.39*C, October looks to be warmer or close to that, certainly over land as that map from the CPC has looked like that for a few weeks now).
Brat

Looks like things have dried up a bit for you. Just light rain on and off here tonight. Looks like most of the wet stuff is currently going north of Tampa, where I seem to recall is the area that really needs it
Quoting JUSTCOASTING:
DId everyone leave ?
This is not the place to be drooming up business. Go Elsewhere.
hey rob, still blowing a bit of a gale, lots of outside stuff going on down here tomorrow, so hope that's it for the rain,
Evening all! WE have landed safely on the Deck and will repatriate Billybadbird in the morning after unloading supplies in Chambers County which is setting up distribution points on Bolivar. Trip out to Chambers County distribution should start around 8:30. Will meet billy and unload around 9:30. After we unload supplies we will take Billy and his supplies out to Bolivar. We SHOULD have a webcam running that will handle 200 viewers at once! Keep your fingers crossed and let's all hope rain can work his magic.

Quoting RobDaHood:
Brat

Looks like things have dried up a bit for you. Just light rain on and off here tonight. Looks like most of the wet stuff is currently going north of Tampa, where I seem to recall is the area that really needs it
RDH, are you dealing with the heavy rain and winds tonight as we are here in Melbourne?
shouldn't have said anything it's pouring again
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all! WE have landed safely on the Deck and will repatriate Billybadbird in the morning after unloading supplies in Chambers County which is setting up distribution points on Bolivar. Trip out to Chambers County distribution should start around 8:30. Will meet billy and unload around 9:30. After we unload supplies we will take Billy and his supplies out to Bolivar. We SHOULD have a webcam running that will handle 200 viewers at once! Keep your fingers crossed and let's all hope rain can work his magic.

SJ -amazing the things you are accomplishing!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
off topic..but John McCain's Joe the Plumber is not a plumber...not registered to vote...and is going after a book deal...I Love America!!!!

Have to respond to this. My husband is a Master Electrician we own a electrical contracting company. We employee electricians they are not licensed my husband holds the license. How it works is you first are an apprentice electrician, after 4 years and enough knowledge you are a journeyman electrician, with 6 years of experience you can then take the state test to become a master electrician and are licensed. Only a licensed electrician can pull permits to work on jobs. You only need one person in the company to be licensed all the rest work under that persons license and he is responsible for everything they do. But they are still electricians. This is the same for plumbers. So if Joe the plumber works for a licensed plumber doing the work of a plumber he is a plumber
RE:332. MichaelSTL

As I say, I have no education in Climatology.
But again in your post #329 you have a link to a Reuters report that 2008 will be one of the top 10 warmest since.....(drum roll please)1850.

Also I would love to know how many grants are available to scientist on the Global Warming band wagon, and how many scientist on the other side are being pushed out of the arena.

I am old enough to remember the Global Cooling scare.
Quoting Robin08:

Have to respond to this. My husband is a Master Electrician we own a electrical contracting company. We employee electricians they are not licensed my husband holds the license. How it works is you first are an apprentice electrician, after 4 years and enough knowledge you are a journeyman electrician, with 6 years of experience you can then take the state test to become a master electrician and are licensed. Only a licensed electrician. You only need one person in the company to be licensed all the rest work under that persons license and he is responsible for everything they do. But they are still electricians. This is the same for plumbers. So if Joe the plumber works for a licensed plumber doing the work of a plumber he is a plumber
Kudos to you for educating us.
335. keywestbrat

You'll probably get some more, but maybe the timing will work out for you...Besides, a little wind and rain never stopped a conch or an aussie from throwing a party. Just takes a little more rum and Fosters
My first ever discussion with someone passionate about Global Warming - I thought that went rather well!

Thanks Michael for the lively discussion.

I am out of here. Got to pull out my galloshes for tomorrow.
I should add, the first graph does have a zoomed-in box of the last 2,000 years, which shows the most recent period as well.

Also, I do know that posting a map of weekly temperatures isn't very meaningful, but for the most part you will find that more areas are warmer than colder (most of the variations of surface temperatures in a year are due to changes in heat transfer between the oceans and atmosphere; also note that even with general warming, you can still easily get cold, even record, since local variations can easily exceed +/-10*C in a single day, "record cold" is also more likely at stations with a short record than ones with a long record).
Quoting conchygirl:
RDH, are you dealing with the heavy rain and winds tonight as we are here in Melbourne?


Light rain on and off, looks like it will clear up for a while soon. Wind - a light gust now and then but mainly around 10 which is lower than forecast for once. The wind and rains do wierd things here so by morning things could be totally different.
Quoting RobDaHood:
335. keywestbrat

You'll probably get some more, but maybe the timing will work out for you...Besides, a little wind and rain never stopped a conch or an aussie from throwing a party. Just takes a little more rum and Fosters
yep she'll be right mate, the beer doesn't know its raining LOL
This has been an extremely fun evening. Off for the night, must work tomorrow.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:332. MichaelSTL

As I say, I have no education in Climatology.
But again in your post #329 you have a link to a Reuters report that 2008 will be one of the top 10 warmest since.....(drum roll please)1850.

Also I would love to know how many grants are available to scientist on the Global Warming band wagon, and how many scientist on the other side are being pushed out of the arena.

I am old enough to remember the Global Cooling scare.


Umm... Did you see this? You memories are more due to the way the media hypes everything up than actual scientific basis (basically, it was due to the discovery of Milankovitch cycles and how they drove the ice ages; needless to say, any cooling would be very gradual, over thousands of years, the media treated it like it was happening in years or less; Day After Tomorrow stuff). Even at the time, most scientists thought that rising levels of greenhouse gasses would overwhelm any cooling (the science here goes back to the 1800s; indeed, the first calculations of how much of an effect doubled CO2 could cause were done around 1900 and possibilities were raised about what could happen, although back then there were no global temperature datasets or records of atmospheric CO2 levels; it was based on physics).
Holy crap, is that a waterspout on Mobile radar south of the coast???

Radar
350. PcolaDan

very interesting loop

Thinking that might be your low.

going to look at nws radar for a moment...
NWS Mobile radar had a Severe Thunderstorm marker on it that dropped off in the last frame. Really creepy looking.

Here's a short term forecast for that area:


SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1005 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

GMZ630-650-655-670-675-240500-
MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
1005 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2008

.NOW...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 90 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
WITH EMBEDDED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...LOCATED 20 TO 60 MILES SOUTH OF
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND GULF SHORES...CONTINUE MOVING NORTH AT 15 KNOTS.
THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEAR 45 KNOTS IN ADDITION TO VERY ROUGH SEAS AND BLINDING HEAVY
RAINS. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REGARDING THE LATEST ON THESE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTSIDE OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORM AREAS...EASTERLY WINDS AT 25 TO
30 KNOTS GUSTING PERIODICALLY TO NEAR 35 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY MORNING...WITH OFFSHORE SEAS RUNNING FROM 11 TO 14 FEET.
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Umm... Did you see this? You memories are more due to the way the media hypes everything up than actual scientific basis (basically, it was due to the discovery of Milankovitch cycles and how they drove the ice ages; needless to say, any cooling would be very gradual, over thousands of years, the media treated it like it was happening in years or less; Day After Tomorrow stuff). Even at the time, most scientists thought that rising levels of greenhouse gasses would overwhelm any cooling (the science here goes back to the 1800s; indeed, the first calculations of how much of an effect doubled CO2 could cause were done around 1900 and possibilities were raised about what could happen, although back then there were no global temperature datasets or records of atmospheric CO2 levels; it was based on physics).


I understand, and certainly the media can hype anything.

I have no doubt that human activities can increase warming, it only makes sense. What I have a hard time buying into, is that the major cause of global warming is man made.

Years ago, we were told to switch from paper to plastic bags because it will save trees and therefore be better for the environment. We do need to save the rainforest, however as far as I know we were using fast growing pine, that increased oxygen the oxygen in the environment, was renewable, paper was bio-degradable. It never made sense to me to use petroleum based plastic. Now it seems my non-scientific common sense was right.
On the other hand, prohibiting the use of DDT, made perfectly good sense. This prohibition has made a tremendous amount of difference, not only in the return of the eagle and the improved shells of other birds. It also has proved to be good for agricultural sustainablility.

I do admire your knowledge and commitment.
However, as I mentioned, I do doubt that the research being done is balanced. I greatly hate to see scientific research go from being a bastion of logic to being a tool of some with agendas.

After posting this, I will lurk a bit, in case you wish to comment on this post. (You get the last word!)

Then I really am out for the night :)
Quoting RobDaHood:


If that's the low, it's an awful tight one. Don't think I've ever seen radar signal like that. I just happened to take a peak to maybe get an idea if it would still be raining in the morn and saw that spiral. Interesting, gonna watch it for a bit and go see if Mobile TV says anything.
Ohhh... and check your "green bags" that you are buying in the grocery stores.

1) Made in China - hardly the poster country for environmental safety ( to say nothing of sweat shops)
2) They say they are made of poly...whatever. Do they say they are made of recycled plastic? Most do not - Check out yours

I see hundreds and hundreds a day, made by factories known for not utilizing environmentally friendly methods. But we sure do feel like we are saving the environment with them.

Back to lurking.
354. PcolaDan

That's got to be one of the strangest things I've seen on radar. Severe warning is back too.
rays 4 phillies 2, well of to bed see ya
Nite brat!
PcolaDan

Post back with anything you find out. I'll check back later...stay safe up there.
RobDaHood:

Nobody mentioning it that I can find. Oh well, off to bed.
361. 7544
something blowing up on the west side of fla looks interesting at this hour

Link
I just got home from work. It's blowing about 25 - 30 outside right now! I didn't realize how tight this thing was. Cool! I don't want a 'cane , but I like this storm!
Latest report from Pensacola NAS is 34 Gusting to 43!

The tower is about a mile away across the bayou from where I live.
G'morning guys.

I see we had a GW debate... I can see the residue of the sparks from here. ;)

Weird radar loop outta Mobile right now. Looks like low is elongated just offshore P'cola.
Indian Meteorological Department

Tropical Cyclone Outlook (0600z 24OCT)
========================================

(1). Yesterday's Low Pressure Area (99A) over southeast and adjoining East Central Arabian Sea now lies over East Central and adjoining Southeast Arabian Sea.

(2). Another Low Pressure (90B) lies over west central Bay of Bengal off Andhra Pradesh coast. It is likely to concentrate into a depression during the next 48 hours.

Convective clouds are seen over southeast and east central Arabian Sea, parts of south Andaman Sea, and south and west central Bay of Bengal.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Weird radar loop outta Mobile right now. Looks like low is elongated just offshore P'cola.


You guys should have seen that thing when PcolaDan first noticed it...Looked for all the world like a Hurricane symbol.
Looks like this will be a quick-hitting rain event in Orlando as the rain has been spotty up to now. Some heavy rain is finally about to move in but now appears it will move out quickly later today. Not the 2 day rain event originally thought. I'll take anything we can get to keep dryness at bay this winter.
Didn't think of doing a capture until the north part started to fade but you get the idea

It is pretty nasty here in Pcola right now, we just lost a tree in the back yard. uprooted, wind is ferocious, I can't believe they don't have any kind of warnings up for this mess. Seems alot like what we got with Gustav.
We have lost power 3 times for a few moments, had almost 2 inches of rain since midnight.
Quoting Jebekarue:


You still hangin in there?
G'mornin!

Sounds like Pensacola is having some fun this morning.
Just a heavy breeze here and only a few sprinkles overnight.
Morning Rob.

Looks like Florida's getting pelted with a fair amount of rain today.

And.. for the moment... it's not raining here. Huzzah!
ya, still here, seems the wind has slowed some, I tend to get tense when the wind blows like this. My husband thinks I'm crazy, but after Ivan I'm paranoid, granted this is noooo Ivan, but when I can hear the wind howling thru the water tower less than a block from me i get worried.
My avatar is from Ivan, my parents back yard, we were in the house when the trees fell, fortunately the builder of the house was an architect and used 2 2x4's in the attic for extra support, so there wasn't a whole lot of damage at least across the main span of the house.
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning Rob.

Looks like Florida's getting pelted with a fair amount of rain today.

And.. for the moment... it's not raining here. Huzzah!


Big puff of convection in the gulf last night, but has died down considerably and rain seems to be fading out a bit as it comes on shore. Good thing too because if you believe the radar estimates that blob was dropping about 3 inches per hour well off-shore.

I'm in the center of the state, just been drippy here all night and no real wind. P-Cola has been getting hammered though


BTW Goodmorning
375. Jebekarue

Yeah, radar shows it moving out of your area shortly, folks to the east of you need to keep an eye out though, 'specially right along the coast.

That nevousness you feel is perfectly understandable after Ivan.
379. vortfix

If that mess had come through in the middle of the afternoon at 85 degrees I have a feeling that radar would be a whole lot scarier.
Something wrong with Photobucket....it keeps grabbing the wrong image.
That surface analysis I posted is incorrect.

Here is the link to the latest one.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-242145-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-

534 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WITH A WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
THE RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES
AND ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE ON THE GULF AND ALSO TAMPA BAY.
THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN STRONG SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE GULF...WITH POSSIBLE GUST TO NEAR 35
KNOTS...ALONG WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS. TAMPA
BAY WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 30
KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND THEN SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.
Yes, Rob. Fortunately there is no heating to cook up any severe.
I have checked and there has not even been any thunderstorm warnings issued recently.
Whew!
Good morning...
As far as I know we have had no warnings of any kind here, except maybe marine warnings. I don't have my weather radio on right now (don't want the kids to wake up just yet HA) and no kind of warnings are up on wunderground local.
Yeah, all I've seen have been special marine warnings popping up on NWS Radar near Mobile, PCola and KWest. Hoping it stays that way.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Yeah, all I've seen have been special marine warnings popping up on NWS Radar near Mobile, PCola and KWest. Hoping it stays that way.

me too, hope the front hurries and pushes it out quickly
Well based on current SFC/Radar OBS... seems that FL specially the Peninsula is going to be on a long rain event.

Also high Helicity values of 350 to 500 are starting to spread accross N FL to SCFL. Once the warm front moves up it will be interesting to see if the convection currently training S to N on the W/SW FL coast(s) about 50 to 100NM will ease up. If it does then there could be breaks in the clouds and we might be in some trouble.

Let's just hope it just keeps raining all day.
385. Jebekarue You are correct, as far as I saw.

384. WxLogic

Good Morning!

looks like Georgia is getting some much needed rain though, hope they get enough to hold them out of drought for a while.
The SPC has not been too concerned regarding the severe potential:


...SOUTHEAST STATES...
AN INFLUX OF HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR IS UNDERWAY...ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION
REGIME...ABOVE THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION TO THE PENINSULA... WHERE
SEA BREEZES COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON STORMS.

EVEN WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 70F...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES WILL GENERALLY ONLY SUPPORT WEAK CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG MID/HIGH LEVEL
FLOW NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL JET...30-50 KT SOUTHERLY 850
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THIS WILL PROVIDE AT LEAST A
LOW RISK FOR A SUPERCELL OR TWO...WITH POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING BENEATH BROADLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK...BUT MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
DURING THE 16-20Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS A BIT LATER ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.



On weatherbug it has the current daily rainfall total for a particular station, how can you find out the total for that station for say since noon yesterday? It started raining around 12:30/1 yesterday and I don't think we have had a break in the rain at all. Last night on the news said 2.5 inches fell yesterday, the weatherbug station I have up says 2.24 since midnight
391. Vortfix... the general consensus has been that due to the large amount of cloud debri in the area the distabilization will be the primary factor. Sure enough by having a cloudy day yesterday it did not allow enough of the low level atmosphere to get modify so we all ended up with a "relatively" cool air. Yet there's a potential that if a TS does develop that it could gain rotation rather quickly... heck even a strong CS Congestus producing some heavy shower could rapidly get rotation under these conditions.
NWS Ruskin, FL Discussion was an interesting read this morning. Don't know that I learned that much from it, but nice to know they don't have it all figured out yet either.

Out for a while, have a nice morning.
395. IKE
According to a weather station within 6 miles of me...over 3 inches of rain here since this started yesterday here in the Florida panhandle.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A PERSISTENT 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N89W IN
NORTHERN BELIZE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOME FORM
HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS/THE INLAND
HONDURAS AREA SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MADE LANDFALL IN
AND DISSIPATED IN INTERIOR HONDURAS ON 16 OCTOBER 2008. RAIN HAS
BEEN FALLING IN HONDURAS AND NEIGHBORING AREAS DURING MUCH OF
THE LAST TEN DAYS OR SO. MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. THE MAJOR
RIVERS HAVE FLOODED OVER THEIR BANKS. NEWS MEDIA REPORTS
INDICATE THAT ABOUT 200,000 RESIDENTS IN HONDURAS HAVE SUFFERED
DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO COVER THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AREAS
OF GUATEMALA TO NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...TO BELIZE...AND OVER
THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 20N PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS AT
THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W IN
WESTERN CUBA AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA BETWEEN
76W AND 83W...EVEN REACHING SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...MOST
PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE DIRECTION
OF POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
This dang persistent low pressure area is going to get left behind again!
Argh
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS
THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...AND REACHES THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18.5N 93.5W. DRY AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27.5N89W. A WARM
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR
29N86W...PASSING OVER FLORIDA TO 27N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
EAST OF 90W. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND IT
WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE
1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC
ALREADY.
Regarding KEHcharleston's post . "green" has become the watchword of this decade. Like most things it started out as a noble goal ,but again like most things it's been hijacked by those with something to gain. "green" has a whole different meaning to them. From Chinese sweat shop "green" bags to carbon credits. Sincere concern for the long term, has been turned into a green goldmine for some.
Yet there's a potential that if a TS does develop that it could gain rotation rather quickly... heck even a strong CS Congestus producing some heavy shower could rapidly get rotation under these conditions.


A Tropical Storm?
Are you referring to the little low in the upper Gulf?
Quoting RobDaHood:
NWS Ruskin, FL Discussion was an interesting read this morning. Don't know that I learned that much from it, but nice to know they don't have it all figured out yet either.

Out for a while, have a nice morning.


Indeed that's the trend being shown by some model in not quite cleaning the front completely out of FL... looks like a and only IF this happens that a low near Yucatan could develop and track NE to ENE along the frontal boundary.

l8r Rob... Hi IKE.

Going to be departing for a while...
Quoting vortfix:
Yet there's a potential that if a TS does develop that it could gain rotation rather quickly... heck even a strong CS Congestus producing some heavy shower could rapidly get rotation under these conditions.


A Tropical Storm?
Are you referring to the little low in the upper Gulf?


LOL... nahh when I used the word TS I was referring to Thunderstorms... should have used another acronym... hehe.
Photobucket

Gulf Surface Analysis is showing the low has already been absorbed within the front.
OK...whew! LOL

Hey vort, Logic, Ike and anyone else I've missed. :)

Glad to hear it's not so bad as first thought.

Seems today here is just a break before yet another low works its way in. Gotta love autumn. The heavy wind came from a low above us (Moved north of Scotland, just trailed wind and rain everywhere) measuring around 944mb. (Yay...)

Next one doesn't seem as bad, though it'll go right through us. 978mb, or something. Then some higher pressures after that, doesn't seem much wind with it either. Whee!

Now is also the season to keep an eye on any upcoming windstorms. Usually from around mid October to March time, with the peak around January usually. It's all fun...
Precipitaion forecast for today and tonight.
Looks good for those areas in the SE that really need this rain:


Photobucket

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
557 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008


FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID OCT 24/1200 UTC THRU OCT 27/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR


DAY 1...

UPDATED...NERN GULF SFC LO IS EXPECTED TO TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER
EAST THIS MRNG/AFTN THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED.
ACCORDINGLY...ADJUSTED QPF SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INVOF
THE SRN APLCNS FM THE PRELIM DAY1 FCST. OTHERWISE...MOST CHANGES
FM THE PRELIM TO THE FINAL DAY1 QPF WERE A RESULT OF CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. IN PARTICULAR...ADDED TO AMTS OVR SWRN FL TO
REFLECT SHWRS PUSHING ACROSS THE COAST THERE.

Hi Cot...
408. IKE
Buoy 64 NM south of Dauphin Island,AL....winds have shifted to the NNW....low is now east of there....

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 11.8 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 78.1 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 65.7 °F
S&P 500, Dow Average Futures Reach `Limit Down' Level

By Sarah Jones and Alexis Xydias

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been limited after declines in the contracts of more than 6 percent triggered a so-called limit down restriction.

The S&P 500 futures will not trade below 855.20 until U.S. exchanges open for regular trading at 9:30 a.m. New York time, said Jeremy Hughes, a London-based spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dow Average futures won't trade below the 8,224 level, he said. The ``limit down'' suspension allows both contracts to trade above those levels, he said.

Stocks tumbled around the world today and U.S. index futures fell on deepening concern the global economic slump will crimp corporate earnings.

410. IKE
Looks like the low is tracking along the NW Florida coast on this radar...

411. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
S&P 500, Dow Average Futures Reach `Limit Down' Level

By Sarah Jones and Alexis Xydias

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Trading in futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has been limited after declines in the contracts of more than 6 percent triggered a so-called limit down restriction.

The S&P 500 futures will not trade below 855.20 until U.S. exchanges open for regular trading at 9:30 a.m. New York time, said Jeremy Hughes, a London-based spokesman for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Dow Average futures won't trade below the 8,224 level, he said. The ``limit down'' suspension allows both contracts to trade above those levels, he said.

Stocks tumbled around the world today and U.S. index futures fell on deepening concern the global economic slump will crimp corporate earnings.



Yeah...I was gonna post that earlier but thought someone would flame me for it being "off-topic".....bad futures for the DJIA.
Thanks a pantload Vort!!! Aren't you just a little ray of sunshine this morning?
Sorry guys!
Looks like another rough day ahead on wall Street.


World markets slump on recession fears


LONDON (AP) -- World stock markets tumbled Friday on growing alarm that a global recession will ravage corporate profits and push smaller developing economies to the brink of collapse.
Futures indicated a sharp drop on Wall Street, with futures down 550 points, the maximum daily price change.

looks like most people are going to be cutting back on their vacations
OPEC has even joined in the panick and is slashing output as oil sinks.

Going to be some rough times ahead y'all.
I hope folks have some security stuffing in their mattresses.
416. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
looks like most people are going to be cutting back on their vacations


I gave that up a few years ago.

Economy is in the tank...badly.

Good news is...since no one has any money, gas prices are tumbling...down to $2.68.9 here. I heard earlier from someone on CNBC that a barrel of crude oil may drop to 50 bucks. Could we see gas prices under $2 a gallon? I also heard OPEC is cutting production to drive prices up***thanks***
the low is leaving alot of energy behind it in the carib.
418. IKE
37 days...
16 hours...
58 minutes and it's over........


419. DDR
Good morning all
People in barbados must be really fed up with all that rain,its going to be yet another rainy afternoon in the southern windwards.
Morning everyone, 50 degrees in Macon, Ga have had a little over an inch of rain since 5 AM so far, local radar out of Robbins AFB shows heavier rain moving in now. Went out to get the paper and noticed clouds going counter clockwise and thought hmmmmm, thats odd. Came in and looked at the radar and sure enough there was a large rotation in the middle of the storm that is now void of rain and clouds and headed towards Athens, Ga.
Nice precip shield all over Georgia this morning.
I hope you needed some rain there RTL:




Memphis NWS:


Photobucket
Quoting RobDaHood:


Big puff of convection in the gulf last night, but has died down considerably and rain seems to be fading out a bit as it comes on shore. Good thing too because if you believe the radar estimates that blob was dropping about 3 inches per hour well off-shore.

I'm in the center of the state, just been drippy here all night and no real wind. P-Cola has been getting hammered though


BTW Goodmorning



Radar estimates are always way too low around here in central Florida compared to actual rain amounts, so you can usually double the rain rate of what the radar estimates for a real reading.

For example, I have had 0.78 this morning here on the west coast of Florida, but radar says only 0.25 or less fell...

Ive seen where the radar reads 0.50 to 1.00 per hour and the actual rate is over 3 inches an hour, esspecially in tropical systems...


As you go up north, radar tends to over-estimate rainfall, due to drier cooler air.


Where as here, the radar under-estimates due to the rainfall being more tropical in nature.
Hey Vort, yeah its great, we just planted some trees in the yard and the rain is coming down slow and steady so it soaks in without running off. Looks like the heavy rain will hit that lake NE of Atlanta that they get their water from so thats good news!
425. code1
3.75" of rain at my house since yesterday afternoon Ike. Yayyyy Hope your Walton Co. got even more as you are a bit dryer than Okaloosa. Starting to get windy here now in the last 15-20 minutes though. Time for a closer look at radar. Re your comment: I gave that up a few years ago. I come home for vacation mostly. People from all over the world come to our beaches. We don't need to go anywhere for vacation!
426. IKE
Quoting code1:
3.75" of rain at my house since yesterday afternoon Ike. Yayyyy Hope your Walton Co. got even more as you are a bit dryer than Okaloosa. Starting to get windy here now in the last 15-20 minutes though. Time for a closer look at radar. Re your comment: I gave that up a few years ago. I come home for vacation mostly. People from all over the world come to our beaches. We don't need to go anywhere for vacation!


It's pouring here now....low is kicking it up out in the GOM....buoy 42036

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 13.1 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.3 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 76.1 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.7 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 73.4 °F
427. IKE
Winds are shifting around to the NW here. Rain is ending within an hour, maybe 2.

61 degrees outside.
Quoting IKE:


I gave that up a few years ago.

Economy is in the tank...badly.

Good news is...since no one has any money, gas prices are tumbling...down to $2.68.9 here. I heard earlier from someone on CNBC that a barrel of crude oil may drop to 50 bucks. Could we see gas prices under $2 a gallon? I also heard OPEC is cutting production to drive prices up***thanks***



Damned if you do damned if you don't. We were told to stop using so much gas and the price will go down. We did that and the price went down. Now it's too low, lol????
Listened to Radio Havana the last few nights. They are still recovering from the mess that Ike and Gustav created. Russia sent 150 tons of aid.
430. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:



Damned if you do damned if you don't. We were told to stop using so much gas and the price will go down. We did that and the price went down. Now it's too low, lol????


Yup....that barrel of crude oil needs to go back up...lol.

Just like if you pay off your credit cards it lowers your credit score....uh...what? Keep them open? Get charged fees? Stay in debt? Is better....oh-kay.........

The economy needs modernizing...it's screwed up....

Like Pink Floyd sings...money...is the root of all evil to~~~~day.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
Morning. All I can say is WOW. little ornamental rain gauge I got says over 4.5" last night and yesterday. And evidently a pretty good blow too. A few branches down and couple of my potted plants knocked over. Glad IKE posted that loop from last night. That little swirl I noticed last night kept on going I see. Last few frames actually looked like a baby eye forming. Like I said, WOW. All quiet now though, should end up a nice day once remaining clouds clear out.
Just saw the funniest radar shot I've ever seen, looks like a giant snake head about to eat Athens, Ga. Wish I knew how to copy it and show it to you, but I don't.
My fill up peaked at $85 dollars

Just filled up this morning $54. That is a respectable price to pay for a tank of gas today IMO.
Looks like we missed the really heavy stuff. That little swirl area south of us really dumped some rain.

436. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:
Morning. All I can say is WOW. little ornamental rain gauge I got says over 4.5" last night and yesterday. And evidently a pretty good blow too. A few branches down and couple of my potted plants knocked over. Glad IKE posted that loop from last night. That little swirl I noticed last night kept on going I see. Last few frames actually looked like a baby eye forming. Like I said, WOW. All quiet now though, should end up a nice day once remaining clouds clear out.


Winds here are gusting near 40 mph...branches down in my yard...the rain and wind can stop.
437. IKE
...
Morning folks, I've been lurking, while building the interior part of another fire station for a neighboring dept. It's been raining since last night here in SE Ga. , so I thought I'd take a minute to say howdy. I'm sure glad we are having this quiet time here at the close of the season. The only sad note is what happened in Central America. I won't mind if we have seen the last landfall storm storm event for this year. I hope y'all are doing fine, (or lots of help is headed your way). Back to lurking.
Quoting IKE:


Winds here are gusting near 40 mph...branches down in my yard...the rain and wind can stop.


Look at storm totals so far. I must have slept through the worst of it, which could have been lots worse. Look south of Mobile and just south of me.

LINK
Quoting IKE:


Yup....that barrel of crude oil needs to go back up...lol.

Just like if you pay off your credit cards it lowers your credit score....uh...what? Keep them open? Get charged fees? Stay in debt? Is better....oh-kay.........

The economy needs modernizing...it's screwed up....

Like Pink Floyd sings...money...is the root of all evil to~~~~day.


Pink Floyd misquoted - the original statement is "the LOVE of money is the root of all evil"
Comes from the bible
Morning all

New Ike Relief webcam-we will be on Bolivar in a few hours...This new page handles more viewers!!!

New Ike Relief Chat


See y'all in a little while
But "Money" is a great song - one of my all-time favorites - hee hee
Hey SJ - long time no see. :)

And kudos to the 'Money' mention, what a great song.
Into everyones life a little rain must fall



Click to enlarge
morning kids!!!!!,looks like the low in the northern gom has been absorbed by the front....on the visable sat loop it looks like the low is moving ESE now??????instead of the ENE forcast....
what surprises me is that this low did not clear out the western carib. the onslaught of heavy rain continues for latin america
447. IKE
DOW
452.64
-5.21%
8,238.61
looks like the central and south west coast of FL should get some "rays" of sunshine in a couple hrs,further destablising the atmosphere further as a clod front approaches, I have a feeling we could get a bit of severe weather rolling on shore a little later here in srq,w/heavy rain squalls,gusty winds up to 55mph and isolated waterspouts/weak tornado's....time will tell....
Good morning all!!
no more than 60 seconds after I post,The sunshine has arrived here in srq...the sun is peaking out from behind the clouds now,and if we get enough sunshine to warm the air through the 80's,we'll be primed for some strong weather later this afternoon....anyone else read the nws disscusing the possibility of the front not clearing fl's south tip and then returning north stationary as a Tropical low rides NE along the front???????
I can now see blue skies to my north!!!!
Please check out the video and chat feature..as well as the donate button....at stormjunkie.com...it's REALLY cool....and pass it around....post to other blogs, e-mail to your in-laws, etc....

Thanks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
new surface low forming just ESE of cozumel,MX....going to check sheer over area...brb
sheer over the area is favorable,5-10kts there's divergence aloft,sheer in the eastern gom is dropping quickly,oh and there's decent vorticity in the area...I expect a new invest as this area appears to be condusive enviornment for TD to form and move NE or ENE toward the southern half of the FL peninsula.....