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Madagascar Braces for Extreme Rains From Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Enawo

By: Jeff Masters 2:33 PM GMT on March 06, 2017

Dangerous Category 2 Tropical Cyclone Enawo was plowing westwards at 6 mph on Monday morning towards Madagascar, and is expected to make landfall on the island on Tuesday morning. The storm is passing over waters of 29°C—approximately 0.5°C above average in temperature—and is an unusually wet storm, with amounts of water vapor near the very high end of what is observed in tropical cyclones (precipitable water values up to 3.0 inches.) Recent runs of the HWRF model (Figure 2) have shown some very worrisome amounts of rain falling on heavily populated regions of Madagascar, and Enawo has the potential to be a top-five most damaging storm in the island’s history. With warm waters, moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots, and plenty of moisture available, intensification into a Category 3 storm appears likely on Monday afternoon and evening, before interaction with land knocks the intensity of the storm back to Category 2 at landfall on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS image of Enawo taken at 10:10 UTC (5:10 am EST) Monday March 6, 2017. At the time, Enawo was a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

According to the 7 am EDT (12 UTC) Monday bulletin from the official cyclone forecasting agency for the Southwest Indian Ocean, Metro France on La Reunion, Antongil Bay in northeast Madagascar is likely to undergo a significant storm surge of 3-4 meters (10-13 feet) near Maroantsetra, but only 1 meter south of Antalaha.


Figure 2. Predicted storm-total rainfall amounts for Tropical Cyclone Enawo from the 06 UTC Monday (1 am EST) March 6, 2017 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts in excess of 16 inches (orange colors) are expected in many areas of Madagascar, with 4 - 8” expected near the capital of Antananarivo (population 1.6 million).

Enawo is the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere so far in 2017. It has been an unusually quiet tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post.

Madagascar’s cyclone history
According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Madagascar has been struck by twelve major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclones since 1983. The deadliest of these was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Gafilo killed 363 people; damage was estimated at $250 million, the fifth costliest natural disaster on record in Madagascar. The island’s costliest storm was Tropical Storm Emilie, which caused devastating flooding on February 1, 1977 of $1.4 billion (2017 dollars.) The strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar was Cyclone Hary, which brushed the northeastern coast of the island on March 10. 2002, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Hary was a small storm, and caused four deaths and relatively little damage in Madagascar.


Figure 3. Tracks of all major (Category 3 and stronger) tropical cyclones to make landfall in Madagascar, 1983 - 2016. Image credit: NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

There is an enhanced risk of severe weather over Missouri and portions of neighboring states on Monday afternoon, and Bob Henson plans to have an update on this potential in a post later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Looks like a bad time to be a lemur
So the recent post indicating southern inactivity is falling by the wayside now?
Thanks Dr. Masters for the stats on recent Madagascar storm history. The most worry some part about this storm is what appears to be a track right down the spine of the Island and right over the coastal mountain ranges; if this track holds, then we could see huge mudslides and flooding coming from the back side after the storm surge issues on the front side at the Coast.



Image result for map of madagascar mountain ranges

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 MAR 2017 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 14:11:42 S Lon : 52:45:22 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 936.1mb/119.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +14.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 188km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MSG1
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.1 degrees

************************************************* ***



Here is a portion of an article from the the Guardian (last year) on Madagascar; don't be fooled by the great pictures of the beautiful Island resorts on the Coast............The nation has been in crisis due to weather issues; God Speed to them with this storm:

The severe drought afflicting southern Madagascar has left 330,000 people on the brink of famine, a senior UN official has warned.

Three successive years of failed rains have left the island nation wrestling with crop failure and a chronic lack of food and clean drinking water, with agencies warning last month that nearly 850,000 people are experiencing “alarming” hunger levels.

“Three hundred and thirty thousand are on the verge of a food security catastrophe, next step being famine,” said Dominique Burgeon, director of emergencies and rehabilitation at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO).

“People go from one lean season to the next, resorting to negative coping strategies. People are eating anything to fill their stomachs, selling most of their belongings, cattle and land. It shows the severity of the situation and the need for us to act.”

Farmers talk of the earth changing; of failed rains and crops, and barren land. Meanwhile, agencies are fighting a desperate rearguard action. Unicef, the UN children’s agency, reports growing demand for the high-calorie, peanut-based paste used to combat severe acute malnutrition.

People are living under extreme conditions. We are dealing with a development crisis that has lasted for decades now, worsened by El Niño. For many, it is day-to-day survival,” said Elke Wisch, country representative for Unicef Madagascar.

Wisch emphasised the need to build resilience in the disaster-prone country, where food production has all but ground to a halt as the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbates the effects of the drought. “We know that natural disasters will occur,” she said. “The important thing is how the local population can respond to these shocks.”

Caractéristiques de la Perturbation Cyclonique
Actuellement, il y a un système actif dans le bassin.


Concernant le dernier bulletin émis

CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 6 (ENAWO), ce Lundi 06-03-2017 à 18h locale
Déplacement : OUEST-SUD-OUEST 6 KT
Pression au centre : 954 HPA
Position : en Mer à 300 Km au NORD-EST d'ANTALAHA (14.1 S / 53.0 E) à 0600 UTC
Régions en état d'alerte :
ALERTE ROUGE sur VOHIMARINA, ANDAPA, SAMBAVA, ANTALAHA, SOANIERANA-IVONGO, VAVATENINA, FENOARIVO-ATSINANANA, MANANARA-AVARATRA, MAROANTSETRA, SAINTE MARIE.
ALERTE JAUNE sur AMBANJA, NOSY-BE, AMBILOBE, ANTSIRANANA, MAMPIKONY, BEALANANA, ANTSOHIHY, BEFANDRIANA-AVARATRA, ANALALAVA, MANDRITSARA, PORT-BERGER, ANOSIBE-ANALA, ANDILAMENA, MORAMANGA, AMBATONDRAZAKA, AMPARAFARAVOLA, ANTANAMBAO-MANAMPOTSY, MAROLAMBO, MAHANORO, VATOMANDRY, VOHIBINANY, TOAMASINA.
ALERTE VERTE sur KANDREHO, TSARATANANA, MITSINJO, MAROVOAY, AMBATO-BOINA, MAEVATANANA, MAHAJANGA, MANANDRIANA, VOHIPENO, IKONGO, MANAKARA-ATSIMO, MANANJARY, NOSY-VARIKA, IFANADIANA, FANDRIANA, AMBOSITRA, AMBATOFINANDRAHANA, FENOARIVO-AFOVOANY, ANTANANARIVO-ATSIMONDRANO, FARATSIHO, ANDRAMASINA, ANTANIFOTSY, SOAVINANDRIANA, MIARINARIVO, TSIROANOMANDIDY, AMBATOLAMPY, BETAFO, ANTSIRABE, ANJOZOROBE, MANJAKANDRIANA, ARIVONIMAMO, ANKAZOBE, AMBOHIDRATRIMO, ANTANANARIVO.
Prévision : position et intensité prévues :
A 12H POUR LE 07/03/2017 A 00 UTC: 14.7 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE
A 24H POUR LE 07/03/2017 A 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 50.1 E, VENT MAX = 100 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE


As Donald Trump Denies Climate Change, These Kids Die Of It | The New York Times

The incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, has denied manmade climate change. The Times’s Nicholas Kristof travels to drought-stricken Madagascar to see the unfolding crisis for himself.

Read the story here: http://nyti.ms/2kvyKJ8


Here are the results from the March 1 Severe Weather Outbreak, for Middle TN. Pretty impressive results.

Here is the most recent CIMSS info with regard to the upper level divergence; very nice outflow over the top of the storm that should help it intensify a bit this afternoon as the shear gets a little lower closer to the coast:





Perryville, MO tornado was upgraded to EF-4, 180mph peak, .6 mi wide w/ a 50.4 mi track. Overall, 162 homes damaged, 61 destroyed and another 24 uninhabitable.

Expecting a front line passage around midnight to 2 tonight in S C IL, only marginal risk tonight. Currently 57 and overcast, slightly under 30", southerly winds 10-15 gusting to near 25. Some rain to S & E, may get some pop ups ahead of line today.

Hope damage in Madagascar is minimal, but that rains make it to the drought areas in the S.
Sting jet & powerful windstorm across Brittany, NW France this morning - March 6th, 2017
Severe Weather Europe.

So far, the peak wind gusts observed across the Brittany region costal areas were locally up to 193 km/h! Here are some of the local station reports:
193 km/h* - Camaret (*120 mph)
191 km/h - Ouessant
180 km/h - l'Ile de Groix
170 km/h - Pointe du Raz


---

Still waiting for news of the aftermath (in English). Local news say hundreds of thousands without electricity this afternoon. Lots of damage, overturned trucks, roads cut and houses damaged by fallen trees, all kinds of stuff got blown around (including some boats) but nothing too catastrophic it seems. 2 fatalities reported though, and several people have been badly injured.
The meteorology of this event is interesting. Textbook sting jet developed (see link above), numerous new monthly wind gusts records set as well, and the windfield was/is very wide. Now the focus shifts to the Mediterranean where storm winds are forecast tonight.

- Max wind gusts recorded until 1600z (main weather stations only): Link
- Wind gust values - near real time - from meteo-ciel.fr (click "animation sur 24h" to display, well, you get it): Link
Wow, what a hit piece. President Trump has been in office less than 100 days and you are blaming children's deaths and a country's drought on him? Can we keep the politics off the blog and stick to weather and science?

I know that you are referring to a stance he has taken. But President Trump is a pragmatist (Obama's words), and given the chance he may yet help them. And that is why folks there are suffering because they need help and have not gotten it. Isn't this really an indictment on the last administration for not helping?

History will judge us as much, or more, on our response and adaption to Climate Change. The jury is out on how much we can really affect the weather and changes it course.

I usually just use the scroll wheel to skate past the blatantly partisan policy related comments, but I could not pass this up.

Quoting 11. Xandra:

As Donald Trump Denies Climate Change, These Kids Die Of It | The New York Times

The incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, has denied manmade climate change. The Times’s Nicholas Kristof travels to drought-stricken Madagascar to see the unfolding crisis for himself.

Read the story here: http://nyti.ms/2kvyKJ8



Quoting 15. 999Ai2016:

Sting jet & powerful windstorm across Brittany, NW France this morning - March 6th, 2017 ...


Loop of the windstorm over the day.
600.000 without power: Link
Average surface air temperatures for February 2017 - Copernicus.eu.

(...) February 2017 extended the spell of exceptional global warmth that has now lasted since mid-2015. Although the global temperature anomaly peaked in February 2016 and declined steadily from March to June, it rose again in July and August, and has remained high since. February 2017 was the most anomalous month since April 2016, and was:

0.69 C warmer than the average February from 1981-2010;
the second warmest February on record;
0.18 C cooler than February 2016, the most anomalous month on record.

Only two months from October 2015 onwards have been less extreme than January 2007, which was previously the month with the highest anomaly (0.54 C). Each month from August 2015 to September 2016 successively became the warmest on record for that particular month. (...)
Kind of hard to keep politics out of the weather and climate science these days, seems to me that politics want to remove the science aspect of it. Sticking your head in the ground does not resolve the issue...

from a previous blog...

Quoting 227. Xandra:

Bill McKibben: "EPA to cut environmental education for kids by 94%. Cuz you definitely don't want kids finding out what you're up to"

From OregonLive:

Here are 42 of President Donald Trump's planned EPA budget cuts

[...]

The Trump budget, the basic outlines of which were revealed Wednesday, is not yet final, and the EPA's new administrator, Scott Pruitt, has cautioned that he will make changes. But it offers the first glimpse into Trump's vision for an agency he has attacked as a job-killer. The EPA did not respond to a call for comment.

Some highlights:

Puget Sound. Funding for restoration work in the country's second-largest estuary would be cut from $28 million to $2 million.
The Great Lakes. Funding to combat algae blooms, invasive species and other water pollution problems in the world's largest group of freshwater lakes would be cut from $300 million to $10 million.
The Chesapeake Bay. Funding for restoration in the country's largest estuary would be cut from $73 million to $5 million.
Research on endocrine disruptors. The EPA's work studying chemicals that can interfere with the body's reproductive and developmental systems would nearly be eliminated, dropping from $7.5 million to $445,000.
Diesel emissions. Since 2008, the EPA has issued grants to accelerate the country's transition from old, dirty diesel engines to cleaner burning trucks and equipment. They've been responsible for most of Oregon's progress in addressing cancer-causing diesel soot, a major air pollution source.
Beach water quality testing. The EPA spends about $9.5 million to fund state testing of bacteria levels at beaches around the country. In Oregon, it funds state testing during the summer. That would be eliminated.
The U.S.-Mexico border. Sewage and garbage from Mexico frequently sweeps into San Diego during winter rainstorms. The EPA has funded work there to slow the flood of garbage into the Pacific Ocean. Its program to address problems like that would be cut from $3 million to $275,000.
Environmental education. The EPA spends $8.7 million annually on programs to educate children. Spending on them would be cut to $555,000.

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters...
I see the blog is back to the reason why its disappearing.

Dr. Masters writes a great blog about Tropical Cyclone Enawo and the discussion (as always) ends up being about President Trump (travel ban, empowering terrorists, connections with Russia, etc).

Yes, because the blog members can not stay on topic and focus on the weather, this blog is being flushed down the toilet. Don't believe it. Open your eyes.


Quoting 16. DFWdad:

Wow, what a hit piece. President Trump has been in office less than 100 days and you are blaming children's deaths and a country's drought on him? Can we keep the politics off the blog and stick to weather and science?

I know that you are referring to a stance he has taken. But President Trump is a pragmatist (Obama's words), and given the chance he may yet help them. And that is why folks there are suffering because they need help and have not gotten it. Isn't this really an indictment on the last administration for not helping?

History will judge us as much, or more, on our response and adaption to Climate Change. The jury is out on how much we can really affect the weather and changes it course.

I usually just use the scroll wheel to skate past the blatantly partisan policy related comments, but I could not pass this up.




First of all, it's an op-ed piece, so informed opinions are the whole point. Secondly it's not blaming Trump for these deaths; rather, it's noting that actual children are actually dying of the very environmental effects that Trump denies exist. When the president refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of a problem that is having real effects then that's a problem.

And finally, as you know, it's Trump who has suddenly politicized science by trying to cut funding for, and in some instances outright muzzle or suppress, legitimate scientific research.

You say that history will judge us by how we respond to climate change, and I don't disagree. But pretending climate change doesn't exist would seem to be the worst possible response.
The Low level Southerly flow is deep..

So I can't respond to #16 which I did with facts? Suppressing that here now too?
I met a Sheikh from Mozambique (ZZ Top Song)

Looks pretty impressive!





Thanks for the update Dr Masters!







Biggest problem I can see on the horizon at the moment with Enawo making landfall tomorrow morning is with the NE coast at landfall; that very strong band (red) on the Eastern side of the core might be able to wrap around to the West side by the morning lashing that part of the Coast with hurricane force winds and a strong storm surge before pushing on into the mountains over the Island: even if the wrap occurs overnight due to the slow forward speed of the storm at the moment, at the least, it should able to close off that dry slot before the core reaches the coast. 

Mediterranean Wave Forecast (WAM) - significant wave height (m) & 10m Wind (click "animate", and watch from March 7 on...)
Severe weather across the US today:



Including a hatched area for tornados:



So may seem some nasty tornados today.
California snowpack currently sitting at 182% of average for this date. Based on data from 98 automated sensor locations in the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and Trinity Alps.
CA Snow Water Content
Quoting 31. Envoirment:

Severe weather across the US today:



Including a hatched area for tornados:



So may seem some nasty tornados today.





Well, this low level inflow is heading due N that away fast, and with Max heating into the later afternoon and evening,...





Quoting 30. 999Ai2016:

Mediterranean Wave Forecast (WAM) - significant wave height (m) & 10m Wind (click "animate", and watch from March 7 on...)

Oh, wow, worth watching! Hope the boats and ships will stay away from that storm!
This nearly matches the forecast for Enawo:


Source:
I am grateful for the international coverage that this blog, and it's commentators, present. I want to know what going on around the world. The headline news' world we live in does not always present it.

However, googling "Madagascar Drought", there are many news sites that report it without the inferences.

The author of this op-ed is Nicholas Kristof and is described as as "liberal / progressive op-ed columnist". Not my words.

A quick google search on "madagascar drought causes", and on the 1st page / from the site phys.org, I find this article, "Drought caused by El Nino threatening southern Africa: UN".
"The region's "intense drought... has expanded and strengthened since the earliest stages of the 2015-2016 agricultural season, driven by one of the strongest El Nino events of the last 50 years".

Yes, yes, I know, you will argue that AGW is making everything worse.

But this article never mentions El Nino, repeatedly hammers climate change, and Trump's name even as the hapless villager says "whatever you say".

You call it an Op-Ed, but because of its spin, I call it Fake News.


Quoting 25. MaineGuy:



First of all, it's an op-ed piece, so informed opinions are the whole point. Secondly it's not blaming Trump for these deaths; rather, it's noting that actual children are actually dying of the very environmental effects that Trump denies exist. When the president refuses to acknowledge the legitimacy of a problem that is having real effects then that's a problem.

And finally, as you know, it's Trump who has suddenly politicized science by trying to cut funding for, and in some instances outright muzzle or suppress, legitimate scientific research.

You say that history will judge us by how we respond to climate change, and I don't disagree. But pretending climate change doesn't exist would seem to be the worst possible response.
Quoting 32. oldnewmex:

California snowpack currently sitting at 182% of average for this date. Based on data from 98 automated sensor locations in the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and Trinity Alps.
CA Snow Water Content


Awesome! Great news!
Quoting 32. oldnewmex:

California snowpack currently sitting at 182% of average for this date. Based on data from 98 automated sensor locations in the Sierra Nevada, southern Cascades, and Trinity Alps.
CA Snow Water Content
Link

https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/wate r/westwide/snowpack/wy2017/snow1703.gif

It looks like the snow pack is awesome in California, but pretty decent throughout the west. It looks like both the Colorado river and the Rio Grande will be getting good water through out the spring. I am not sure about the Platte or the Missouri though.
About the only good thing about Enawo is the area of landfall has small population centers. Of course some will be seriously affected and prayers go out to them.
Mr. Henson is doing a post on the severe weather issue for the US this PM; when the Conus jet position coincides with a strong low pressure system, and warm temps out ahead of the front, things go boom..........................




Ignorance is still free,..

for now.


Sing along!




Today is Red beans and rice Monday...,

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 35. DFWdad:

I am grateful for the international coverage that this blog, and it's commentators, present. I want to know what going on around the world. The headline news' world we live in does not always present it.

However, googling "Madagascar Drought", there are many news sites that report it without the inferences.

The author of this op-ed is Nicholas Kristof and is described as as "liberal / progressive op-ed columnist". Not my words.

A quick google search on "madagascar drought causes", and on the 1st page / from the site phys.org, I find this article, "Drought caused by El Nino threatening southern Africa: UN".
"The region's "intense drought... has expanded and strengthened since the earliest stages of the 2015-2016 agricultural season, driven by one of the strongest El Nino events of the last 50 years".

Yes, yes, I know, you will argue that AGW is making everything worse.

But this article never mentions El Nino, repeatedly hammers climate change, and Trump's name even as the hapless villager says "whatever you say".

You call it an Op-Ed, but because of its spin, I call it Fake News.





You are free to call it fake news. What was fake in what was said?

While El Nino conditions did have an impact of the drought there it is also true that any El Nino event is limited to the heat content of the ocean at the time of the event. The ENSO does not create nor does it destroy heat energy. The greater heat content of the oceans has to be coming from some place else. You know where this extra heat content is coming from. You cannot defend Trump on his denial of this simply because Trump had no play in the current drought that is happening there. Just my thoughts on this.
All the rain this winter Lake Henshaw about 7 miles SSW of mi casa has gone from 5% full to 29% full. From 3000 acre feet to over 15,000 acre feet! Henshaw has flows from Palomar MT and some creeks/rivers in the Warner Springs area. Rainfall has already beaten the normal/average yearly rainfall with over 32" so far since July 1. Normal rainfall is 23+" per year. At my place 7 miles NNE of the lake, I'm sitting at 26" since July 1.

Pic from East Grade Rd on Palomar Mountain.



Link

COD severe weather.
The severe weather is still 200 miles away, but it is heading this way!