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M, N, O... P?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:12 PM GMT on September 06, 2005

The tropics are really cooking now, with activity typical of what sees at the height of a busy hurricane season. We are only in the 4th inning of a 9-inning ball game, and already have our 14th named storm, with the 15th likely on the way! At this rate, the old record of 21 tropical storms set in 1933 will easily be eclipsed, and we'll have to start naming storms using the Greek Alphabet--Alpha, Beta, Gamma, etc. So let's dig in and start discussing the storms, from most important to least important.

Depression developing near Miami
The area of most serious immediate concern is the stationary tropical low centered about 75 miles east of Ft. Lauderdale, FL. This low has increased its deep convection markedly in the past six hours, and appears that a tropical depression will form here later today. The hurricane hunters are scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

The best to way to track the storm is on Miami radar. The radar loop shows a large circular ring of strong echoes developing. Doppler radar estimates of the wind velocity from the Miami radar (see image below) show peak winds in the 20 - 26 knot range, which is still below the threshold for a tropical depression (30 kt).


Figure 1. Doppler wind velocities from the Miami radar. The storm to the east of Miami is rotating counter-clockwise, so winds to the northeast of the city blow towards the radar, and winds to the southeast of the city are blowing away from the radar. Wind speeds over the ocean to the northeast of Miami are coded shades of green, meaning winds are blowing at 10 - 26 knots towards the radar (the radar is located in the exact center of the image, and is denoted by a hard-to-see white cross). To the southeast of the radar, the winds are colored yellow to orange, meaning winds are blowing 10 - 26 knots away from the radar. Ignore the echoes over land, most of these echoes are ground clutter. Velocities marked pink (RF) mean that the echoes are too far from the radar for velocities to be determined.

This system should move very slowly the next three days, since it is trapped under a strong high pressure ridge where steering currents are very weak. A slow northward or northwestward motion is indicated by most of the models, which would bring heavy rains to the east coast of Florida starting Wednesday. Most of the models bring the system inland over Central Florida by Thursday as a weak tropical storm and dissipate it. However, some models keep it just off the coast of Florida, and forecast that as the storm tracks further north, it will move more northeasterly away from Florida, following Nate out through a weakness in the ridge. This all depends upon how strong Nate becomes. However, none of the models forecast that the system will follow Nate all the way out to sea. A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in behind Nate and force the system back towards Florida. This system seems destined to spend most of the coming week hanging around Florida. As far as intensity goes, shear levels over the system are 5 - 10 knots, which should allow for some modest strengthening. It is likely we'll have Tropical Storm Ophelia by Thursday. Shear levels are forecast to decrease even lower the next few days, so if the system remains off of the coast of Florida, it has a chance to be a hurricane by the end of the week.


Figure 2. Early forecast model tracks for the developing system east of Ft. Lauderdale.

Tropical Storm Nate
Nate formed last night on the eastern lobe of the same trough of low pressure that spawned the system near Ft. Lauderdale. Remarkably, the GFS forecast from last Thursday correct predicted that two separate storms might emerge from this trough. Nate's satellite signature has improved markedly the past six hours, is over warm waters, and has light shear overhead. We're likely to see Hurricane Nate by Thursday. Nate is moving very slowly, as it is trapped under a strong ridge of high pressure. A trough moving off the east coast Friday should create a weakness in the ridge that will allow Nate to follow Maria out to sea. The only threat from Nate to the U.S. coast will be some high surf that may develop late in the week.

Hurricane Maria
Maria peaked in intensity early this morning, and is now showing significant deterioration thanks to wind shear and cold water. She barely made it to major (Category 3) status last night, with 115 mph winds, the 4th major hurricane of the season. Maria is expected to continue zooming northeastward and turn into a huge and powerful extratropical low that will slam Iceland with high winds and heavy rain on Saturday. Maria's remnants will then weaken, but still bring Norway significant wind and rain on Tuesday.

P?
So, we've talked about M, N, and O, but not P yet. Well, I have no speculations about where the "P" storm might form. My long-range eyes can't see any evidence of other threats in the tropics. The tropical wave that just entered the eastern Caribbean has strong easterly winds at high levels that are shearing it, so that is not a threat. There is a low pressure center off the coast of Africa near 13N 33W, but convection is limited there. The ITCZ is pretty quiet, so for now we just have the M, N, and O storms to worry about.

Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

oh joy! more rainy days for So FL, what about wind?
BTW, fig. 1 is a box w/a red x... :(
AHA! Now it came up, thanks!
Beach erosion is what I am reading thru Dr. Masters report...gonna be with FL all week? Anyone who has visited FL beaches knows they have had enough erosion!!!!
I hope this stays out of the Gulf, another Katrina-like event would likely happen.
Yep like i stated earlier I am here in St. Augustine and when we get events like this it is devistating to our beaches. Right now they are still putting sand back on our beaches from last years hurricanes. Already the buoy east of here has 9ft. seas.
The beaches here are a mess
I doubt a second Katrina event will happen. It could come severe but doubt it will reach strength of Katrina. However, even something small in the area of Katrina's destruction path will be significant. Besides, I see this storm taking a more northerly path.

My question is: What happened to the TD15 (Now Nate) coming towards the Carolina coast? I was looking to get some weather up this way...

- C
Okay, Floridians, I have a question...

Here in IL, if it rains 6-8 inches in a day, we get serious flooding issues quickly. Is it just me, or can FL handle that amount better than most other states?
Oh let me revise that, now they are up to 10ft..lol..
Some areas can, Most of the flooding we get here is from coastal flooding. But we also have alot of low lying areas so we can flood pretty quickly as well. In our downtown here in St. Augustine, the combination of higher then normal tides and alot of rain can put this city under water pretty quickly, because we are right on the intercoastal and the ocean.
But normally we can handle the typical T-storm rains that pop up during the summer.
we have the st johns basin that is relatively low ground...but last year, the St Johns actually looked like a huge river. The water seems to drain that way in Brevard Cty...it caused major flooding to the county north of us (Volusia) because that river flows north.
look at that visible...Link...Florida is ready to get pounded by some rain today..And this starting to get better organized also.
Here in Lake Butler FL, 30 miles N of Gainesville, we are still soggy from last year, puddling from any afternoon thunderstorm lasts for days. I don't know what 6-8 inches would do. Since we are on 5 acres and turn into a mud bog everytime it rains nor, I bought a 4 wheel drive car end of May.


Does anyone know about the bunch of storms in the center of the gulf? Is this also something we need to watch?
From 8AM discussion prosac...

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE E
LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W S INTO THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 23N W OF 87W.

Looks like upper level low, nothing to worry about.
Latest Quikscat pass still doesnt show TD winds yet...Link...You can see the strongest winds in the NE flow to the north of system along the coast.
Lake Ochechobee looks a lot like Lake Ponchartrain on the map. I know the surrounding areas are different than NO, but what type of scenario would develop if that lake took a direct hit from a Cat 3 or 4?
we'll know whats up in less than an hour...new updates are gonna come in...wondering if we'll have another TD...wonder if Nate is getting stronger (looks so)...if the low off FL does develop, it is dealing with some shear, so I don't think it will get too serious too quick, just painfully slow for us folks on the east coast....
The Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 hit as a Cat 3/4 and overwhelmed the dikes, killing over 3400 people, most of them poor (sound familiar?). In the outcry that followed, the dikes were built up to withstand a Category 5 hurricane, but have not yet been tested by anything stronger than a Category 3.

Jeff Masters
Dr. Jeff, thanks for the link and the info! I would hope the dikes would hold and are maintained, etc., better than the levees of NO were. Thanks again, that is just what I wanted to know.
Yes stormy I am more worried about the beach erosion and coastal flooding with this one. Wow, great info Dr. Masters didnt know that, learn something new everyday here.
Thanks weatherguy03

I don't know the difference between a high and a low, that's why I listen to you guys.

All I know is if it looks remotely spinny it makes me nervous.
a nice band of rain is heading my way...you can see on radar Link how that low is just dragging it towards the state....
Link sorry
where are you stormydee?
titusville, fl...watching the clouds coming in...moving ssw around 15-20mph...
it appears the low off FL is drifting ese...on radar at least...
We now have td 16 and just gotta love the circle of uncertainity, Katrina put holes in my roof here in Ft lauderdale, hope my tarps stay on good.
stepping out...catch up with everyone after 12PM...
This system does look much better organized on sattelite and on radar than yesterday. You can somewhat make out an idea where the center might be on the radar loop. As katrina proved to us here in south florida, just because the storm is weak do not underestimate it. I foresee this system becoming a tropical depression if it is not one right now. It needs to have 25 knot winds to become a depression and from the graphic that Jeff gave us proves that it has the strength. When the hurricane hunter investigates it later today they will find a closed circulation. It will make landfall somewhere along the coast from west palm to daytona as a minimal tropical storm but will dump tons of rain all along the coast starting with miami today.

Looks sickly familiar to katrina but about hundred miles north and west from where katrina sprouted. And we all saw how katrina went from 45 mph to 80 mph in one day off the coast of florida with the slow movement.

this to tell you all we now have TD16
corn, we sure do...
it is not drifting ese. it only appears that way because the vast center that it has is filling in from the west to east. It is consolidating or getting better organized.
Yep we do..i guess we arent waiting for the plane..lol..Oh well time to get ready for the rain and wind.
Hello Everyone, I sure hate to see TD 16. I see that the GFDL has it possibly coming across Florida into the Gulf. WE DO NOT NEED THAT! Is there a pretty good chance of that happening?
Storms this close to the coast have a tendancy to move in a sw direction though, you cant rule out Miami or Broward county. Especially with it just sitting there sucking up the bathtub water out there.
Oh joy, TD 16 ....Hey cornflake What part of FTL, I have holes in my roof too, and my bathroom ceiling is falling cuz of Katrina. Hope this start moving a lil bit....This rain is not good for us right now...or is there any chance of this one backing in down here.
Im in dania beach
at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the East Coast of Florida from north of Jupiter northward to
Titusville including Merritt Island...and the government of the
Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Grand Bahama and
the Abacos.

Tropical depression center located near 26.5n 78.6w at 06/1500z
position accurate within 30 nm

present movement is stationary

estimated minimum central pressure 1007 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt (30mph)

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html


Is it just me or is this td 16 expanding quite a bit?
Got a serious tropical storm party going on.. hopefully TD16 aka Ophelia stays on the track they are projecting and doesn't slip south like Katrina did. Also anyone ready to start bets on if we going to make it thru the name list this year (ie ends a "W")?
here are current model forecasts Pasc...Link
Getting very heavy rain here in Rockledge, which is near Cocoa Beach, and very gusty winds
I feel sorry for weatherguy and me, looks like were gonna take this one, whether its a hurricane or not, remains to be seen
halon--is TD 16 it forcasted to be a hurricane?
I'm in Ft Lauderdale as well.... Oakland Park area... Corn- ya think it may move SW?
steve just posted update
depends, on how quick it can get its act together, obviously the NHC thinks so, according to the the wind speed estimate table
yep Halon..well the good news is the first track has it going right over me..that means it will change..lol..but again a slow mover like this not good for beach erosion here.
coral gables here... lost alot of trees in the city, not complaining against what happened in Gulf States...
would prefer no more rain... obviously...
steve g seems to feel rain more than wind, but is preliminary statement... will update later
WG03 I am about 25 minutes due west of you.... PK....
Bills, there is a possibility, however with all the new model updates looks like St. augustine or JAX might be in trouble. They rarely get direct hits up that north. And if the track remains true it gives it more time to be in water, so they might be looking at a cat 1.
yep look at that big cone....very uncertain in the forecast track...Link
Where at Halon?
Ya THINK???
Palatka
I am in jax. I JUST gave all my water away to the old couple across the street that was having problems with their city water supply. Doesn't look like it's going to be much, but I guess you never know. I guess I need to go shopping...
what gets me is the rapid expansion of this storm over yesterday....WOW
Oh..lol..just went through there yesterday my parents live in Interlachen..small world.
Models show several several scenarios, the main concensus is to take the system NNW into Northern Fla. A few models take it up the coast and then turn out to sea. While these models are useful for intitial guidence, they are not very reliable in the early going. Thet tend to be much better after a storm is more established (at least this year). Thus, the gulf is not out of the woods yet.
LOL In-Laws live in Hollister :P
well, one thing we cannot complain about.. cool temps
One distinct difference, the longer it stays out the stronger it will get, nobody can argue that.... And welcome to mobile home world..... thank god I live in a concrete home...
halon-- LOL "and welcome to mobile home world"

That just cracked me up!
Can anyone give me a worst case on how strong it might get. One of those models takes it pretty much directly over us.
everybodys take on intensity is different but this is the NHC's forecast tableLink
in other words if it stays off the coast 48 hours the NHC is saying there will be a 35% possibility of being a cat 1 hurricane....(bear in mind, that this table too, is constantly changing....)
Probably not enough time for it to get stronger than a Cat.1, if that. However, if it stays over open water long enough it might get a little stronger. Just way to early to tell. I have a feeling we will know pretty much what the system will do by tomorrow morning. One more night should allow us to see how rapidly it is strengthening. I know that sounds like a cop out but the system just gained TD status and the center is now undergoing organization. That is why I wouldn't put to much faith in the models until the system has organized to TS status (which I believe will happen).
i think intensity will depend on proximity to coast obviously..Looks like upper levels will get better, SST high, so basically land interaction would be its only affect.
Hey weatherguy, dont look now but Nexrad shows a line heading your way.....
TD16 will move onshre in Florida south of the forecasted position. The ridge to the North will not allow this system to gain this much latitude. I agree with the 6Z GFDL in forecasting a landfall near Melbourne in 48 hours and taking this system inland, very slowly to the West.
The intensity could be upwards of 60 MPH, even if it only stays over water for 48 hours.
I bet old Tim Deegan is having fun with this one :)
oh yeah..I am at work..lol..let the fun begin..Going down to beach when I get off later to see how the surf is..It will be low tide so it may not look to bad yet..
Thanks guys, I like to be prepared for the worst, hope for the best!
Should Savannah Georgia be worried about TD #16?
I wouldn't be surprised if the system doesn't track W or just S of W into Fla. eventually coming into the gulf. If it does, the Gulf looks very hostile for a tropical system at the moment. I don't know how long the upper low in the gulf is forecast to stay there but as long as it is there no system will stand a chance for much intensification. One danger point, although relatively rare, upper lows can develop into tropical systems and that low in the gulf sure has a lot of convection associated with it.
check this satellite loop! cool how it shows how this thing has blown up!!!!Link
Anything is possible right now..Look how big the cone was on the NHC forecast track..i couldnt even guess right now, but a slow N to NW motion seems resonable, we will know more by tomorrow, maybe, hopefully..lol..
Halon that is cool.
As long as Stormtop doesnt get on and say a CAT 5 is coming my way I feel safe..lol..
Anyone heard from stormtop?? Gosh. he was so eerily right about Katrina so far in advance, it's almost creepy.
A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to build in behind Nate and force the system back towards Florida.

I've seen this happen before this time of year which is why I don't stop wathing untill the storm is well out to sea.
Say up by Nova Scotia :-)
Hopefully ST is OK. I am hoping that he re-located and is not posting because of lack of internet access. He was planning on staying put and taking pictures of Karina, hope better sense came to him.
TD 16 gives me an impression of what Frances did last year once it hit land. A huge storm that SLOWLY drags across Florida, dumping more rain than what we can handle. I surely hope it tracks up the state instead of getting into the gulf.
Granted, this is not a big issue but according to the TAOS run, the windfield for this storm covers up the main Florida peninsula, and part of s.e. Georgia.... that seems to me to be fairly ummmm.... far fetched....
I posted my forecast map at Link
Halon the windfield will be large because of the pressure gradient between the large high to the north and TD16...Gusts all along coast have been between 35 to 40mph from Ga to Florida..More due to the pressure gradient.
This has no chance of being another Katrina. Even if it does get in the Gulf. Katrina has left behind a pretty massive cool wake. It will be another couple of weeks before the water gets back to the tempreture/heat content it was pre-Katrina.
I remember getting battered by T.S. Gordon in the mid 90s. When it was way down in the Keys, most of the state was getting T.S. force winds because of the gradient. They didn't initially forecast that to happen. There were water spouts that came on sure as well. It lasted for days.
WOW..........Man I am in hog heaven........we have tropical disturbances every where...........ophelia is right around the corner from me.....possibilities of her reaching hurricane are descent....and Im not sold on her path.......as katrina did.....im in orlando.....so its not to far away..........the upper low in the gulf is also an interesting feature.....it seems to be at the midlevels also...........nate is starting to cook and maria is dying a little.........
I can't help but think that STORMTOP would move heck and high water (literally in this case) to post to this site.

If someone hears from him or knows who he is and his whereabouts, please post and let those of us who are genuinely worried him know he is safe.

What about TD16...what do the other models say? I have only seen 2 models so far?
Getting dumped with rain today in the Leewards as well as some pretty impressive thunderstorms....I thought the tropical wave passed over us this morning...is it possible that we're getting the runoff from Maria and Nate's tails?
Anyone else just a little bit worried about the possibility of the last few frames on VIS... of that disturbance (looks to be TROF related) in the GOM.. that there's development potential there? Looks like shear could inhibit... but even a rain event could be a disaster.
Weatherguy...maybe you need to visit the coast?

what is up in the gulf? for those of us that are cleaning up?
Latest 12Z GFS in...Link
Check out this awesome picture. Todays satellite, showing the life cycle of a tropical cyclone, from pre-development (left) to decay (right) Link
Upon further review, I'm starting to see (maybe it's just my imagination) a UL rotation in the GoM...
I live on the coast butterfly.
Anything is possible with any of these storms......dont kid yourself...granted that the chances are not good for TD16 to make it into the gulf.....there is plenty of warm water for a hurricane to become intense.......the whole western half of the Gulf of mexico is hot.....the minimum water temp needed for maintaining a tropical storm is 80 degrees.....when katrina came thru we had 85-90 temps.....the temps were knocked down but not that far.... and in case you havent forgotten, its hot out there.....and one last thing......water temps are only one ingredient amongest many........everyone needs to watch and be ready!!
That is classic 79..One to keep.
Ok, it's not just my imagination after looking at the WV loop. ugh.
sorry weatherguy...sincerely.

I meant weatherBOY...in response to his "I am in hog heaven" comment re: our current hurricane situation.
Hello Everyone,

I would like to begin by saying... "It's about time!" For those FSU fans out there, you know exactly what I mean.

Now... TD #16 WOW.... It is so amazing that we are at #16 already. Anyone feel this thing may head to the Palm Beaches? It has been raining on and off for two days now as this thing has been trying to develop.
I knew we would have TD by 11AM....
Alright, no comparisons of TD 16 to Frances. The similarities are striking. We had been deluged with rain before Frances and then got something like 15" with Frances, not to mention the obligatory squalls that dump 2" an hour after Frances.

We have been rained on for a week. By our rain guage we have gotten over 6" in the last week. Our ground is saturated! The water control guys are dumping it as fast as possible, but they can only do so much. You guys in the Carolinas wanted a storm, you take her! :)

Am I ever going to see the sun again? These liquid sunshowers are getting depressing.
im in tropical storm warning....great!
Butterfly.......I understand.........Im a stormchaser and I had three storms come right over my house last year.....but I also dont live on the coast for a reason.......I think people need to consider not living within 2 miles of the coast........If you do, you have to expect that mother nature may come to collect every once in a while.....
As to Lake Okeechobee, there was an article in the Palm Beach Post today regarding our dikes. I don't know how to make a link, sorry. They monitor the levees for problems pretty regularly. They do develop leaks. They did last year after Frances and Jeanne. However, they say they can stand up to a storm. Sound familiar?
FSU IM so with ya..............Im here in orlando and we are starting to get the first outer bands now.......
Be back at 11PM have to work
Nate will be a hurricane by next advisory...but models still show that it will not affect the US....I hope this holds true since I have TD16 to worry about....
stormnut.....first let me say...'GO NOLES'!!!!!
We have been having rain the past two days here (near Cocoa Beach) as well.
No problem butterfly..lol...it gets confusing with so many weather..somethings..lol..I need to change my name..lol..
yep here in St. Augustine as well..a few waves of rain today..more coming..wind gusts around 30 to 35mph..just a nice noreaster..lol..
boy look at the latest GFS just slowly ride it up the coast...Link..
when I left Friday, I thought that there were two lows spinning out there by the bahamas, I figured that either one would be absorbed or maybe we'd get two storms, but I thought, nah, NOW look at the mess, there are THREE of them lined up...and TD16 is exploding. May be a T.S Ophelia by 5PM.....if not sooner....(what a name!!)
Blipvert, I see the circulation in the gulf too, so it's more than just imagination, but whether it can develop or not or be a threat, I certainly don't know.
Maria has a wicked tail....
Yeah, the most likely scenerio at this time does take it up the coast.
the gulf is an upper low, it is poss to get a low level circulation, but as of this moment, it doesn't look to possible to form into a tropical system...too much dry air to the north, west, and south...
TD #16 and proximity

I say this at risk of being wrong, but hey, whatever.

Being stuck between Nate and a hard place (the state of Florida), TD #16 probably isn't destined for great things... strengthening is limited to sitting over the gulf stream, and outflow will probably be restricted by land masses and Nate.

Its only chance will be to get kicked out into the Gulf, and with how slow it's projected to move, I'd place my bet that it would strengthen to a Tropical Storm, and then dissipate in north-central Florida.
Actually I am not worried about it getting too strong, but the overall envelope of winds pounding the coast here for 3 to 5 days worries me. Especially with beach erosion and coastal flooding, and of course alot of rain. Those could be the three things we talk about with this storm in the next few days.
LpAngelRob, you are giving the most likely scenario. For this storm to be of any consequence, it has to stay over open water for a longer period of time (which it might). I don't mean to downplay this storm because it WILL be a large rain maker which will present its own set of problems for those near it.
Still too early to tell anything except that it highly probable that this will be a strong TS, maybe a Cat. 1 cane.
well, at least we will get updates every 3 hours on TD16. I agree that rain and beach erosion will be our biggest problem in FL with this storm. Unfortunately, though, the shearing is letting up and that water is very warm right now, I do think she will strengthen by days end to a hurricane or at least a strong tropical storm.
stormydee..did you say you are in t-ville?
weatherguy,, i only have about 5 mis,, do you think there is a chane of it moving to the NC coast, i havent read all the other post if you have already said
Looks like the upper low in the gulf is also infleuncing the mid levels. Don't see too much happening in the lower levels. The system is drifting Westward, should stay out of New Orleans, another rain maker, only for Texas. It is possible for this type of system to develop although it usually takes quite a bit time for it to happen.
yep, I am in ts warning...lucky me! Fortunately, it isn't raining (yet)but the sky looks omninous.
Another area to watch is the Southern end of the trough (West of Yucatan) extending from the gulf upper low. This area looks suspiciously like TD16 did a few days ago. Also close to land though.
Sorry low I am at work slow to respond..lol..At this point a slight chance but I think if it doesnt cross Florida it may end up moving NE and out to sea before it gets to NC..Still too early, but at least its a slow mover, alot of time to watch it.
WOW..Big squall coming through..wow....
Gusted to 40mph with squall an hour ago..will have to see what kind of gusts we are getting with this one
Weather deteriorating here.....can't tell the gusts cause Im inside, but the trees are swaying slighty...my loop-d-loops won't loop, I am wishing that they'd do their job (silly dialup...bellsouth needs to open some dsl in my area so I can do this quicker than the turtle speed I go now...)
oh yeah sbc yahoo is doing a special now if you order online you get it for 14.95 for 12 months and then it goes up to like 25 dollers
it nice to see 3 storms behind each other happily they dont follow each other to US :-)
stormydee..I'm located in the same area...new to this site as of a week or so ago...very interesting weather info..My father was a meterologist, so I guess it is in my blood...
oh yeah and thats dsl sry
rebooted, the loops are loading...and we will get an update soon on TD16 aka Ophelia...
stormyde are you sure about that?
storms are very interesting and no matter what knowledge we have, mother nature will do what she wants....
Convection has really spread out around 16 today. I am thinking this thing could make it aaround the GA/SC boarder. This concerns me due to the time it would spend over very warm water. Not an expert though. Any thoughts on this?
she may not get named at 2PM, the shear is still pretty strong, stretching her up to the Carolina's, but if that shear lets up some, then I expect the name by 5PM....
Hey StormJunkie. I don't think the "bomb" will like that forcast too much. :-)

Afternoon Tybee, sorry did not mean to put you under the buyllseye, that is just my feeling on this one.
on radar, the supposed center seems to be drifting ENE, although very slowly...the fact that it isn't wrapping more tightly means she is not very organized.....YET! But still a rainmaker, no matter what she becomes...
SJ...It does not look very good does it. But it is still very early. At this point I think it is anyones geuss. However, I do think we will see some "weather" related to it either way. Just don't know how bad...
With that forcast you could end up on the S side of the storm with little or no surge. I think the bomb would not mind that too much.
l0l is it possible that TD 16 and nate will meet each other?
True!!
StormJunkie?

What makes you think it will hit the GA/SC border? That's where I live.
The system is undergoing some shear but the outflow is improving in all sectors except its Southern end. This storm is certainly going to intensify.
seems strengthening Nate is trying to make an eyewall....
It is still too early Tybee. We need a little better defined center and then several model runs before I think anyone has any confidence.
I agree SJ. But I WILL be watching this one closely.
NO expert Obsidian and I am wrong more than I am right, but just from looking at the early model runs and listening to what different people have said I think this thing will track further N than expected and will stay a little further off the coast of Florida.
well Nate and soon-to-be Ophelia are sitting almost stationary, I don't think they will come together, but push off eachother, if anything...
Tybee Bomb Story

For those that are wondering why Tybee and myself keep reffering to the "bomb" read the above link.
Just a quick note SJ about the "bomb". A friend of mine here on the island is a boat mechanic. Someone lost a pontoon out here in the back river...the boat sank except this single pontoon. This guy was called to go get it. He put it in the back of his truck to take it to his shop. Told one guy laughing when asked "what the H#!! is that"...that it was "the Tybee Bomb". Within 30 min everyone on the island thought this guy had found it. It was one of the funniest things I have ever seen. It took two weeks for everyone to quit talking about it.
looks like td16's center is just above Freeport....
LMAO.
The GFS on this page is what worries me because Dr. Maters stated that it will only move E for son long before it turns back to the W due to a building high once Nate exits stage right.
That GFDL on this page also has it way too far south I think. It will be intresting to see what the new GFDL does with it now that it is a storm.
Here is latest GFS from 12Z SJ if you want to look...Link
update on TD in...
Is it the same as above 03?
stormydee,

You seem to be referring to the Fujiwara Effect. This effect is talked about more often than it's been observed (ever), so having Nate and Ophelia rotate around each other is highly unlikely.

This is 2005, though, and really, I'm of the opinion that anything that can happen will happen.
ah, still disorganized, still stationary....
No that one was 6Z this one is 12Z..Loop it and you will see how it slowly moves it up the east coast of Florida.
What is your opinion on track 03?
never heard of "Fujiwara Effect", and I don't think they will spin around eachother, I just don't think they'd become one as someone else asked earlier...I am no expert, but I go on my hunches....
TD seems to want to follow her shearing...it may be brushing her up the east coast of FL. But the fact that radar isn't showing any true rain bands, its obvious that it has not organized better. If she decides to stay and idle by Freeport, then the shear is gonna let up and we won't be happy campers....
Okay, maybe not everyone knows about the Fujiwara Effect. :-)

Information not in Japanese is a little hard to come by, but basically it's the published theory of an observation that when two strong tropical cyclones approach each other (within 500 miles), they do not merge. Instead, the stronger cyclone's winds (not sure if this means outflow or low-level rotation) "capture" the weaker cyclone, and the weaker storm rotates around the stronger.

And apparently, this is very, very rare.

It tends to happen more in the Pacific, where two supertyphoons can often be seen on satellite. Plus the water tends to be water, and there's a LOT more of it to draw energy from.
I like a slow N to NW drift along the coast, cant see it at this time moving all the way across Florida. May stay weak if it hugs the coast, but just 50 to a hundred miles off shore would make a big difference.
gotcha LP...thanks, that would be awfully weird if it happened in the Atlantic...
Here's a link with better Fujiwara stuff. This link makes the claim that eventually, the two tropical systems merge.

This particular link describes how a MCS (mesoscale convective system) affects the path of a tropical cyclone, and vice versa.
Again SJ big rain event for us here in FLorida, with coastal flooding and beach erosion a big factor..Hopefully that is all we will see.
TD isn't wrapping its southern end...must be the shear. Remember, we've all seen shear tear these systems up. Anyone have links to the shearing forecasted for the storm? Or when/if it will let up?
So far this morning here, three of these rain squalls have come in giving us almost an inch of rain here. Gusts have been ranging from 30 to 40 mph with each of these.
For those of you in South Fl that haven't seen this yet:
Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Miami Florida
205 PM EDT Tuesday Sep 6 2005


Discussion...
forecast package all dependant on what T.D. 16 does and GOES. All
models in fair agreement to drift it to the north-northwest and
official forecast track is as such. Main problem is how extensive
rain banding will be on the SW side of the system. Seems to be
enough subsidence occurring that convection is not developing over
the peninsula where sun has been shining all day. This even when
the precipitable water well over two inches. For now have lowered probability of precipitation just a
tad to account for the inactivity but may not have lowered enough.
The other factor are the temperatures as enough clouds around on the East
Coast to keep temperatures down and GFS/mav has initialized far better
than the met guidance. As 16 drifts north S fla to stay under a
lot of moisture feeding into the system from the S and SW so will
leave scattered coverage in for Wednesday/Thursday with the East Coast being the
most vulnerable at least by Thursday. By the weekend system far enough
to the north that drier air could spread across the region.
On Friday, before they were even classified as tropical, TD16 and Nate were very close and then Nate moved away...now looking at TD16, it is possible she could branch and become 2 tropical storms? Anyone know????
goodmorning. wow td 16. man when i said 12-24hrs yesterday i expected it would take a little longer. now we need to see where she goes
some interesting insights from the tampa nws afternoon update (kinda lengthy sorry)

THE UPPER LOW IN THE GULF IS GRADUALLY GETTING OUT OF THE WAY...EXIT STAGE LEFT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WHATEVER SHEAR IN THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT (MAINLY IN THE EASTERN GULF) TO WEAKEN. COMBINE THIS WITH THE LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE NEAR/OVER THE GULF STREAM...SEE NO
REASON WHY THE CYCLONE WON`T STEADILY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HOW QUICKLY? NOT SURE YET...BUT NOTE THAT NEARBY WATER TEMPERATURES HAVE LOWERED IN THE WAKE OF KATRINA.

SECOND...TRACK. THOUGH THE CENTRAL GULF LOW IS SLIDING WEST...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW...ALBEIT LIGHT...IN THE EASTERN GULF TO NUDGE THE SYSTEM ALONG ITS CURRENT FORECAST NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUT IT`S GONNA BE CLOSE. THE WINDS AROUND THE GULF TROUGH ARE QUITE TIGHT (NOTE
THAT ATLANTA`S RAOB HAS DECENT SOUTHWESTERLIES ABOVE 400 MB WHILE BIRMINGHAMS`S WERE NORTHEAST!). THE LATEST GFDL NOW TAKES THE SYSTEM MORE WESTWARD...SO MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THEREAFTER...THE MOVEMENT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER THE CYCLONE GETS FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO "FEEL" THE FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. IF IT DOES...IT SHOULD MAKE THE TURN WITH THE WESTERLIES AND HEAD AWAY FROM THE REGION.

HOWEVER...IF IT DOESN`T...THE LATEST MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTH AND EAST...WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY STEER THE SYSTEM OR ITS REMNANTS BACK TO THE WEST AND PERHAPS INTO THE GULF. STAY TUNED!

The diernal period should be intresting tonight. Widespread convection should die down some, but deeper convection should develop around the center. Shear should continue to weaken if the forcasts I have read are correct. Ships brings it to 70mph in 72 hrs.
stormydee. that is unlikely. nate and td 16 all formed from a complex system. td 16 from an area of low pressure that built in behind a low trof. nat developed from the trof. as of right now there would be no other mechanism to form another system from td 16. i do belive we may see as she forms for the center to redevelop somewhere with in the deepest convection and this will likely affect the track of this sytem and the length over water
Afternoon Lefty. I will be watching this one closely. Have to head to work in about 20 mins.
yeah this one could get interesting
The further N she moves the further she will get away from Katrina's wake.
thanks tampawx...that answered some of my wondering questions...
the key to track will be where her center is as she develops and the strngth of the ridge to her north. that ridge is suppose to weaken and split. that will be key
New vortex in...Link..Barely a depression.
Lefty I know you liked the GFDL with Katrina, but what is your take on the GFDL on this one?
glad u could join Lefty, u seem to have good knowledge.
i would like to see another run or two to see if it has a handel on the system. remebr it had a cane in the gulf 2 days ago and dissipated it all day yesterday. so it has not had any concitency
from the latest discussion:
A BIT OF SHEAR IS HITTING THE DEPRESSION BUT WILL DISAPPEAR ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ON TOP OF IT. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BE IN WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS...AND THUS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST LATER TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COASTS OF FLORIDA AND GEORGIA.
oh, i'm in the TS warning. Can anyone think of a storm that has developed to hurricane stength on top of or around fl historically, like Katrina did? I remember 1 or 2 as a kid that crossed or moved around fl as TS then moved off to develope. & wftv said a recon is headin to TD16 now.
Convection is starting to bulid to the S in the lower Bahamas. That strengthen is forcasted for the diernal period also Dee. Have to watch tonight and see how organization does. We need a well defined center to get an idea of where she is going.
can anyone get TD's computer models off this website? Mine are all messed up looking, not sure if its my computer or the website...
Storydee, it is not your pc. All the models look distorted at the bottom.
Here stormy you can check this out..this is some of them from this morning...Link..Should have new stuff soon..I am at work dont have all my sites here, but at least you have some to look at.
thanks weatherguy, much better models... :-)
Here is another link http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.pngLink
what beach u going to after work weatherguy? Closest I have is Cocoa Bch...
Again this is also good...Link..but doesnt update fast enough forme..lol..
boy sngalla, seems they aren't agreeing on much right now....
I am here in St. Augustine. I am on the intercoastal here. I can see it from my window. So i just go over the bridge and I am there in like 5 minutes..lol..
I agree, Stormydee. Guess the whole east coast of FL needs to keep a watchful eye on it.
weatherguy, I'll be busy checking out that site..thank you so much!
Link
Now that is what I was looking for...thanks again weatherguy!
As I mentioned last night. The shear was "somewhat" hostile and continues to be. That's why we have minimal depression right now. And latest recon has it below a depression. But as shear weakens I think we will see an "average" ts within 24-36 hrs. Look out though for the huge ridge in New England to weaken. If it does look for a possible track out to sea or NC/SC. If not, probably Jacksonville. Of course, track is very uncertain at this time and these are just my opinions. We have to wait for more recon reports etc.
p.s. gfdl has handled this sytem poorly from its inception. Take it with a grain of salt until a better llc is discovered.
loop-d-loops r going down again, but its the end of my day. I guess TD16 wants to hold up and let the shear let up. More banding is starting to wrap around her...maybe she won't get her name by 5PM, but you can tell, she wants to get her act together...she has all day to wait for the winds to die down...she isn't going anywhere anytime soon....maybe tomorrow we'll be talking about Ophelia (who came up with these names anyway?...) and hopefully Nate will pull on out of here...
based on radar and sat, i belive the center is or has reformed more north or east of fort peirce. she appears to also be drifting ever so slowly north or nnw.
in vis sat immagery earlier today allc was clearly visible east or miami. since that time that llc as dissipated and the over all circulation is now centred more north. appears llc redveloped underneath the deep convection as she fights that bit of shear.
YW stormy..sorry at work had to deal with people...Seems about right leftyy, hard to pinpoint it but I would go with that.
yes you can see that on the visible as well...Link..Deftinately north of where it was this morning.
ist only slightly north of the nhc 2pm location. maybe 50 milesmore north. if this did indeed happen than we might see some decent streggthening into a ts by late tonight. intensity beyond that is sketchy but we will have to watch it
theres a new update folks
weatherguy, this is a big system as well and i think her impact might be some training resluting in some bad flooding. these bands have just been swinging in and some parts of florida have or will get alot of rain from this
Getting ready to get blasted again with some big rains here..Another huge wave of rain moving in from ocean.
yeah its been terrible today so far, alot of rain here, I was mentioning before this could turn out to be a big coastal flooding and beach erosion event for us here..With these NE winds that continue to pile up here.
As far north as Savannah Ga, I can look to the South and East towards Tybee Island and it's extremly overcast, and to the west it begins to clear up. No rain yet that I know of, but the sky looks very threatening. Hmm nevermind here comes the rain...
I don't know lefty...I'm having a tough time discerning an obvious llc. You are indeed correct about training rains though. I've had over 5" since Sunday! It's nice though. It takes the bite out of the inccessant heat we've endured all summer long.
Obsidian...It has been raining steady here on Tybee since about 3:00. A LOT!! NE winds about 30 - 35 mph.

it look like we may see TD17 it is in the gulf and it is a low that may be come TD17
What is a TROF?

What is ITCZ?

Thanks!:-)

podunk