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Lufthansa jet narrowly avoids crashing in German windstorm

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:39 PM GMT on March 05, 2008

A Lufthansa Airbus A320 with 137 people on board nearly crashed at the Hamburg, Germany airport on Saturday, March 1, as the pilot struggled to land the airplane during high winds kicked up by winter storm "Emma". If you don't have a fear of flying, take at look at the remarkable video an amateur photographer captured of the landing. It's been uploaded to LiveLeak.com and YouTube. As seen in the still images captured from the video (Figure 1), the pilot attempted to land the aircraft with a strong crosswind blowing from right to left. The crosswind is so strong that the drift angle of the aircraft (the difference between where the nose is pointed and the actual track of the airplane along the runway) is about 20 degrees. As the pilot touches the wheels down, he kicks the rudder to straighten the airplane out, and at that moment, a strong gust of wind lifts up the right wing, pushing the left wingtip of the aircraft into the runway. The pilot is skillful and lucky enough to avoid having the airplane cartwheel down the runway and explode, and aborts the landing attempt. You can see the blast of the engines kick up a cloud of dust on the left side of the runway as he goes to full throttle for a "go around" (thanks to Jeff Weber of UNIDATA for making the correct analysis of this dust cloud). The plane landed safely on its second attempt. Do you think the passengers were praying during that second landing? I do! Only minor damage was done to the left wingtip, and the plane was back in service by the next day.


Figure 1. Still photo of the Lufthansa jet (left) as it approached the runway. Note sharp angle between the direction the airplane's nose is pointed, and the track it is taking along the length of the runway. Strong winds of 40 mph gusting to 63 mph were observed at the airport that afternoon. Right photo: the left wingtip of the jet scrapes the runway as a big gust of wind hits. Image credit: LiveLeak.com.

The weather that led to the near disaster
The initial press reports indicated that a wind gust of 155 mph hit the aircraft as it tried to land. That sounded rather dubious to me, so I took a closer look at the weather conditions that day. The only way a wind gust of that magnitude could have been generated would be from a powerful microburst flowing out from the base of a severe thunderstorm. The world record strongest thunderstorm microburst occurred on August 1, 1983, when winds of 149.5 mph were clocked at Andrews Air Force Base near Washington D.C., just five minutes after President Reagan landed there aboard Air Force 1. So, a 155 mph wind gust is possible, but it would be a new world record.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image from 10:20 GMT Saturday March 1 2008. Winter storm "Emma", a 960 mb low pressure centered north of Hamburg over Norway, has pushed a cold front through Germany. A strong northwest to west-northwest flow of air coming off the North Sea (red arrows) brought sustained winds of 36 mph, gusting to 56 mph, to Hamburg, Germany. Image credit: University of Bern, Switzerland.

Were there severe thunderstorms near Hamburg on March 1 that could have generated such a wind gust? A powerful low pressure system (Emma) with a central pressure of 960 mb passed to the north of Hamburg, Germany that morning, dragging a strong cold front through in the late morning (Figure 2). After cold frontal passage, the wunderground history page for Hamburg at 12:50 GMT, five minutes before the time of the incident, shows sustained winds of 35 mph, gusting to 56 mph. A temporary wind reading of 40 mph, gusting to 63 mph, also occurred. The temperature was about 45°F, with occasional rain. This is classic post-cold front weather, and is not the sort of environment where severe thunderstorms with strong microbursts occur. Later press reports corrected the 155 mph wind gust, reducing it to 56 mph. Apparently, the aircraft's landing speed was 155 mph. In any case, the plane was operating very near to the maximum crosswinds an Airbus A320 is permitted to land in--38 mph, gusting to 44 mph. There are questions whether air traffic control should have used that runway for landings, and whether or not the pilot should have attempted a landing in those conditions. There is an interesting discussion at the LiveATC.net discussion forum where some pilots weight in on the near-disaster.

Winter storm Emma did considerable damage across Germany. Six people died in weather-related automobile accidents, power was cut to 150,000 homes, and high winds ripped the roof off of a school in Hesse. In neighboring countries, 260 buildings lost their roofs in Poland, flooding collapsed a bridge in Romania, and in the Czech Republic, 92,000 people (about 10 percent of the population) lost power.

Jeff Masters

Aviation

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Our US economy is now feeling the full affects of the idiots that support their Global warming aggenda. All the laws and deregulations that hamper business to succeed has now put the US businesses in the hands of foreign governments to excell. Thank you very much those of you that support such crap.
1002. Patrap
LOL..what is it with folks today?
IS this a Political forum? ..no.
There a dime a dozen,
This is a individuals blog with a PHD in meteorology.

Politics are 2-3 blog doors down.
1001. TampaSpin 10:06 PM CDT on March 09, 2008
Our US economy is now feeling the full affects of the idiots that support their Global warming aggenda.


LOL...

Yeah right... you are obviously so deluded that you can't think straight anymore... If we were not so dependent on now $100+ oil (soon to be $200, $1000, $10000, etc, especially when it starts to run out), we wouldn't be having any problems right now... Or if the human race wern't so intent on raping and destroying the Earth (this applies to all environmental damage that we have been causing... get your head out of the sand if you think that we have not caused thousands of species to become extinct, destroyed countless rivers (even things like hydroelectric power aren't that environmentally friendly), ecosystems, etc, polluting everything (why is there so much cancer), and changed the climate (which is no different that all of the aforementioned).
Sorry to and if i did offend the democrates and the green heads.
When it starts to run out you gotta be kidding me.......OMG.....lol
Last thing, NO degree means nothing to me, if good judgement is not used and facts not stated correct without evedience to back up only theroies.
1009. Patrap
LOL...I didnt vote for the Bonehead thats been leading this train wreck for 8 years.
Ive seen 10 Presidents come and go.

Im ashamed to even mention his name. I watched his lame ass fly over me and lotsa others Sept 4th 2005 while we were very busy 4 days Post-K.
Then watched his Lil spiffy Silver Jet with the Flag on the rudder, turn Neast..and just cruise on away Back to D. C..

At least after Betsy here in 65, Lyndon Johnson was in New Orleans in the Flooded 9th ward 30 Hours after the Cane. With a flashlight up to his face in a Public School in the middle of the night saying.."I am Your President, I am here to help."

Thats how one leads ..

1010. Patrap


Look, When I came into office,Oil was what? 31-32 dollars a Barrel?

We got them by the nads Sheik, hell,they dont even remember that 15 of the 911 Hijackers were Saudi's.
We diverted that with the Saddam/Iraqi thing, they dont even care.

We gonna go for 110$ a BBl this week. I'll have my peeps call yer peeps..
Lovely new Hair dye your using, it dont even look Fake attall..
Patrap keep your liberal thoughts and thinking my friend and you might become a wanna be president like Hillary someday.
And anyway, many of the changes are for the better - for example, compact fluorescents do cost more (I am sure many people only see the store price and shy away from them) than incandescents, but they use less energy and actually save over the long run (they are everywhere in my house, we only have incandescents where they have not been replaced/used up yet - and not a single CFL has had to be replaced yet either, and after several years).

And if you are wondering, the econamy is considered when considering impacts of climate change mitigation; in some cases, it could even stimulate the ecomomy. On a related note, while ethanol is currently largly corn produced, native plants like switchgrass could solve the using food for fule problem and increase efficiency by 5 times (that is, 5 times more energy out vs. input - the fuel produced could even be used to run the farms with plenty to sell elsewhere; while greenhouse gasses are still generated by burning the fuel, the plants themselves absorbed it from the air).

This means that switchgrass ethanol delivers 540 percent of the energy used to produce it, compared with just roughly 25 percent more energy returned by corn-based ethanol according to the most optimistic studies.

So, that takes care of concerns about ethanol being viable as well as the food problem...


How would you like gas at less than a dollar a gallon? Many people sure would...

Given sufficient investment in research, development, demonstration and deployment, the report projects biorefineries producing cellulosic ethanol at a cost leaving the plant between $.59-$.91 per gallon by 2015. The price range is dependent upon plant scale and efficiency factors. At these prices, biofuels would be competitive with the wholesale price of gasoline.

Not bad at all (unless you are an anti-climate change oil lord... LOL, I think that is the real reason why some people are afraid of anything that cuts oil use).
Rant on Patrap:)

Good stuff with the model verification for last year..

Gfs & Ukmet beat the Nogaps & gfdl. The gfdl had an unseasonably bad year. Dship & Lgem were the intensity winners. The new HWRF did terrible on intensity but faired well on track.
Just to make clear, the focus of my comment was about Dr. Grey. without whom hurricane forecasting would be 20 yrs behind in accuracy and knowledge not politics. It is not my desire to have a political firestorm on the main blog. If someone of his or even Dr. Masters importance to hurricane forecasting, I would come to their defense no matter what group was doing the attacking. That was my only intent. Anyone who wants to discuss that subject further please do so on my blog and not on the main blog. Thanks!!!
1016. Patrap
Look out, Spring is a coming soon. Maybe..Kinda..Still alil iffy.
1012. TampaSpin 3:32 AM GMT on March 10, 2008
Patrap keep your liberal thoughts and thinking my friend and you might become a wanna be president like Hillary someday.


Hey Mr. Neocon....he's freakin' right. Just accept the fact....our prez is an oil guy...oil's shooting up...he's friends with the Saudi's....do the math jackass. Patrap's a good guy and not some drone. Turn the volume on Fox News down so you can concentrate, and think about what he's saying.

1018. Patrap


LSU Earth Scan Labs Link
Tense silence ensues....
1020. Patrap
YA can hear the wheels a smoking too..LOL

Thought Police, dey eberywhere..


Your State Tax dollars at Work..where?

Gang im not here to get in a fight but, 65 management employees was released on friday from a major US company because of all the regulations that are in place to prevent them from producing a product that competes across seas. The Chinese Gov. just employeed a law that increased the price of imports by nearly 25%. Wait tell these effects hit the US in 6 months. Global warming inaccurrate statements without sufficient evedience is careless. Can we make a differece and save our climate, of course we should, but lets use the assests we have, that we can use without having government stopping free enterpise because of Global warming theroies. Patrap i appoligize and did not mean to attack you. You are a hero as those are that serve this country. But, I will not disgrass any President no matter the party.
China’s labour laws
Published: January 10 2008 09:44 | Last updated: January 10 2008 20:23

Is it payback time for Chinese workers? The country’s massive labour force, whose low wages kept the lid on global inflation for much of this decade, will this year benefit from a raft of new employment laws – raising the spectre of higher prices for consumers everywhere.

New labour laws make it harder to fire workers or rely on casual labour. This, together with an enhanced role for labour unions, hits at the core of employers’ modus operandi: Baker & Mackenzie reckons manufacturers rely on temporary staff for 80 per cent of their labour force, and even in some IT companies the figure is over 50 per cent. Not all of these will need to be replaced: there are some waivers and enforcement may not be stringent. Even so, more permanent contracts will end up being written on superior terms, including welfare insurance payments and improved discretionary benefits. Higher salaries are a given; even without legal changes wages are forecast to rise 10-15 per cent this year.

1024. Patrap
Well.,to be sure dissent is expected.
AS sure as its the right of the people to vocalize their thoughts into speech.

Many have died for that right in this Great Country for centuries. I can diss the Man in the Oval Office all night and day.
I respect the Office.
But this man hasnt .
Im full grown. Hell,Ive been in tougher spots than a Blog skirmish. LOL
Folks bash Politicians vocally Like a Baker Cracks eggs,what you dont seem to grasp is that we can.
In reality,your upset cause hes your Partys man. Thats cool too.
But dont think you can police the thoughts and rights of Fellow Americans just because you dont like what they saying about a sitting President.


Comedy careers are built on such things.

No bad feelings here. But I didnt bring the subject up..I just roll with the flow and give my opine..

Its my right.
1024. Patrap 4:12 AM GMT on March 10, 2008
Well.,to be sure dissent is expected.
AS sure as its the right of the people to vocalize their thoughts into speech.


PatRap, well said!
1026. Patrap
Been fun,relaxing..and exciting.But I hear dem cookies and Milk a calling.Its my weakness. I must attest to that.
Gnight all.
Patrap, from 1 independent to another, I agree w/ you 100%. Still as I said before, my comment was not intended to spark a political debate. As I said before please feel free to discuss any politics you like on my blog so the nice folks here can chat about weather. if not then let's just agree to disagree.
Last one:
By BLOOMBERG NEWS
Published: December 27, 2007
China, which makes one-third of the world’s steel, said Wednesday that it would introduce export tariffs on some steel products and increase rates on other items to rein in a record trade surplus and cut energy consumption and pollution.

A new 10 to 15 percent tariff on stainless-steel sheets will be imposed on Tuesday, along with a new 15 percent levy on steel tubes and a 15 percent tariff on cold-rolled sheets, the ministry of finance said in a statement. Existing tariffs on the export of other products, including carbon steel billets and pig iron, will be raised.

China, seeking to curb its trade surplus, cut tax rebates and raised duties on some steel shipments this year. Last month, the European Union threatened to impose tariffs to shield its producers, including ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steel maker.

“We had expected the government to keep tax policies unchanged next year as exports have been falling,” said Ma Haitian, an analyst with the Beijing Antaike Information Development Company, referring to steel shipments. “Still, the government raised the tax barriers as it’s apparently under pressure from the E.U. and the U.S.”

1029. Patrap
Sometimes ya gotta give a dose of reality Ivan...
Oil and Vinegar will mix better than Politics and weather in a Met blog.
And leave less mess too.

Gnight
Patrap, i was thinking more like tin foil and pool acid.
1031. beell
If anybody is going to be up all night, might keep an eye on the radar in deep S TX. Most ingredients seem to be present for severe surface based storms. Just need some lift.
Any combination of upper divergence, dry line (which is now showing up on some sfc charts) or the surface low may be enough. Cap looks breakable if not already eroding.
Call me cautious. Might be after sunup anyways.
Night
1032. ycd0108
You "dingalings" remind me of listening to "skip" on a CB radio: all fired up about opinions and ready to fight because you will never actually meet each other. Is this what the best internet blog has come to?
I do not think that.
Hey, Beel. long time no see. Hope your wrong about the severe weather, but have a feeling that we'll have some pretty violent storms by morning.
Cricket... cricket...

...

...

This blog is slower than a snail trying to lift a turtle.

Seriously, I know it's not hurricane season but still...

And to the guys mad at the political comments recently, I don't see their point. It's not hurricane season, there's not really much else to talk about here...unless you want to talk about sports or something which is even more off-topic.
It's not hurricane season, there's not really much else to talk about here

...Severe weather anyone?
1013. MichaelSTL 11:32 PM EDT on March 09, 2008
And anyway, many of the changes are for the better - for example, compact fluorescents do cost more (I am sure many people only see the store price and shy away from them) than incandescents, but they use less energy and actually save over the long run (they are everywhere in my house, we only have incandescents where they have not been replaced/used up yet - and not a single CFL has had to be replaced yet either, and after several years).


They're also cooler, on average, which makes me REALLY happy in the middle of summer. I bought a few on spec about 15 months ago. Now I'm replacing every bulb in my house, little by little. I agree we can do more.

1032. ycd0108 1:04 AM EDT on March 10, 2008
You "dingalings" remind me of listening to "skip" on a CB radio: all fired up about opinions and ready to fight because you will never actually meet each other. Is this what the best internet blog has come to?


Hey. We have had "ready to fight" in here on occasion since I started reading this blog years ago. Nothing new. I'm actually amazed the politics got restrained to 12:30 a. m. . ..
1034. Altestic 2:59 AM EDT on March 10, 2008
Cricket... cricket...


Could it be that bloggers are . . .[duh duh duh] asleep?!?!?! lol

But, SERIOUSLY . ..

we've been watching two storms in the Indian ocean, one of which has already made one landfall and may be poised to make another.

Recent satpic of Indian Ocean:



Look at Kamba (on the right). Good thing that's forecast to stay out to sea . . .
Well, I'm out. Have a good morning and a great day, everyone!
Pretty well-defined eye with Kamba.
1040. beell
katadman!
Really has been long time no see. I guess I cried wolf on the severe potential for S TX. I'll get over it lol.

Look forward (sorta) to a chat or two during Hurricane Season if not before. Hope you and yours are well and take care.
Storm Synopsis...

A 954 mb deep storm is currently pusing over the island of Ireland, producing gale-storm force conditions over the Atlantic between 45N and 54N...from 13W to the coast of Europe. Expect winds in excess of 50 knots and swells of 23-35 ft. Gale warnings with dangerous seas, all craft should excercise extreme caution over these seas. The storm is forecast to push into the Europe later today bringing heavy wind and light to moderate rain (1-2 in per hr) to the Southern United Kingdom and Northeastern France. After which, the storm will weaken and move into the North Sea, bringing moderate (20-30 knots) wind and light rain (less than 1 in per hr) to parts of Belgium, the Netherlands and Northern Germany and Denmark on Tuesday (there time) or 00Z-06Z Tuesday.

UK Storm System.....Image taken last night by NOAA-17 satellite



Storm battering the West Coast of Europe with high winds, heavy surf and rain.

Ocean scene live surf web cam
Lahinch, Ireland


Current Infrared Satellite Imagery



The GFS forecast showing a much weaker, but strong, storm over the Southern North Sea. Countries along the coast include Belgium, the Netherlands and the Northeast corner of Germany. Image valid 00Z 11 Mar 2008.


Simply beautiful

Infrared Eye Pattern

Surrounding Infrared Temperature - White (-70C)

E6.0

Eye Temperature - Off White ( 9 to -30C)

Eye Adjustments - 0.0

DT No. 6.0

MET No. 6.0

Final T No. 6.0/115/927

1044. Buhdog
I mentioned it on Friday when the storms were rolling into South Florida......The Peace and Calusahatchee river have some weird climatolgical effect on storms coming in. Everytime these fronts approach(now matter how strong a line) the energy splits and we hardly get a thing. All we got in Cape Coral the other night was a couple hours of rain. There was a split right in the middle of line and we watched it on radar happen! I did blog this on Friday and it happened just that way. Can anyone explain this Phenom? Anyone who live in the Ft Myers area can attest to this....there seems to be an area of protection around the coast to I-75 in our area.
1045. Patrap

March 10, 2008
The rotating service structure has been rolled away from space shuttle Endeavour in a major milestone leading up to launch. The liftoff of Endeavour on the STS-123 mission remains on schedule for 2:28 a.m. EDT Tuesday, March 11.

The movement of the enclosed gantry clears the way for the loading of about 500,000 gallons of supercold liquid oxygen and liquid hydrogen propellants into the orange external tank this evening.

The rotating service structure provides weather protection to the shuttles at the launch pad and gives technicians access to the shuttle.

The current weather forecast calls for only a 10 percent chance atmospheric conditions will delay the launch, with the primary concern coming from a slight chance of a low cloud ceiling around Kennedy.

The flight is commanded by Dominic Gorie with Gregory H. Johnson serving as Pilot. The crew also includes Mission Specialists Rick Linnehan, Robert L. Behnken, Mike Foreman, Garrett Reisman and Japanese astronaut Takao Doi.

The crew will deliver the first section of the Japanese-built Kibo laboratory and the Canadian Space Agency's two-armed robotic system called Dextre.

STS-123 is an international mission combining the expertise and experience of several countries working together to create a working 'home' in space.
Good morning folks,


Looks like this weather blog is at its best again today and look whose in the middle of it again........

It takes two people to argue.........Move on!!!!!!


By the way, the earth is warming, on its own, in the northern hemisphere.....But, the southern hemisphere is cooling.....

The Antarctic is surrounded by more ocean ice than ever before recorded in modern history. Its all a natural cycle which we are apart of. Man has very little to do with changes in our climate in the short term. In the long term he has almost nothing to do with it.

Man will destroy himself long before the earth! You can take that to the bank and put your money right next to Al Gore's!!!!!!!!
1047. Patrap
Fascinating...
Keep the name calling out of this blog please, at least be creative.

As for climate change... Look at the glaciers, or where they were. I don't know what "natural" cycle you are on but when ice that is thousands of years old is melting at accelerating rates you are not looking at any historical cycle.

If you can live on cacti, algae, and jellyfish you may be naturally pleased by the climate changes.
1049. Patrap
GOES WV Loop of the Tropical Basin Link
1036. BahaHurican 9:43 AM GMT on March 10, 2008
Now I'm replacing every bulb in my house, little by little. I agree we can do more.

Baha, be sure and read what the EPA says about handling those bulbs.

Fluorescent Light Bulb Information

The lamp contains a small amount of mercury, but you can clean this up yourself if you do the following:

Do not use a vacuum cleaner to clean up the breakage. This will spread the mercury vapor and dust throughout the area and could potentially contaminate the vacuum.
Keep people and pets away from the breakage area until the cleanup is complete.
Ventilate the area by opening windows, and leave the area for 15 minutes before returning to begin the cleanup. Mercury vapor levels will be lower by then.
For maximum protection and if you have them, wear rubber gloves to protect your hands from the sharp glass.
Carefully remove the larger pieces and place them in a secure closed container, preferably a glass container with a metal screw top lid and seal like a canning jar.1 A glass jar with a good seal works best to contain any mercury vapors inside.2
Next, begin collecting the smaller pieces and dust. You can use two stiff pieces of paper such as index cards or playing cards to scoop up pieces.
Pat the area with the sticky side of duct tape, packing tape or masking tape to pick up fine particles. Wipe the area with a wet wipe or damp paper towel to pick up even finer particles.
Put all waste and materials into the glass container, including all material used in the cleanup that may have been contaminated with mercury. Label the container as “Universal Waste - broken lamp.”
Remove the container with the breakage and cleanup materials from your home. This is particularly important if you do not have a glass container.
Continue ventilating the room for several hours.
Wash your hands and face.
Take the glass container with the waste material to a facility that accepts “universal waste” for recycling. To determine where your municipality has made arrangements for recycling of this type of waste, call your municipal office or find your town in this list municipal collection sites (MS Excel format) (pdf format).
When a break happens on carpeting, homeowners may consider removing throw rugs or the area of carpet where the breakage occurred as a precaution, particularly if the rug is in an area frequented by infants, small children or pregnant women.
Finally, if the carpet is not removed, open the window to the room during the next several times you vacuum the carpet to provide good ventilation.
The next time you replace a lamp, consider putting a drop cloth on the floor so that any accidental breakage can be easily cleaned up. If consumers remain concerned regarding safety, they may consider not utilizing fluorescent lamps in situations where they could easily be broken. Consumers may also consider avoiding CFL usage in bedrooms or carpeted areas frequented by infants, small children, or pregnant women. Finally, consider not storing too many used/spent lamps before recycling as that may increase your chances of breakage. Don’t forget to properly recycle your used fluorescent bulbs so they don’t break and put mercury into our environment.
forgot the link

Link
And if your closed minded and only looking at what you want to look at(the northern hemisphere), you can make any conclusion you want.....as you are doing now! In case you didnt know, there is a southern hemisphere.....It is located below the equator!

Go to the "The Glenn Beck Radio Show", you can access on the internet.....He did an hour long interview with some world renowned Scientists from Austalia which is a country in the southern hemisphere near the southern pole.

And one more thing, I usually dont agree with Mr. Glenn Beck, but when he's right, he's right.........
1054. yacoub
A credit to Luftanza's pilots, for sure. Lesser airlines that hire less experienced pilots would have had a disaster for sure.
Biff has a point about the melting glaciers.... if you only look at the Northern glaciers. The Southern glaciers are growing as fast as the northern ones are melting. Since 80% of the land on earth is in the northern hemisphere, the north pole and it's glaciers get most of the attention.
Flourescent lights give me migraines. When they stop selling traditional lights here I will live in the dark.
1057. Patrap
Thats a ridiculous statement.
Trying to land in Max Limit or more crosswinds is crazy at Best.
The MAn was lucky to recover the Aircraft and do a Go around.
One should never put Humans or the Aircraft at risk in such a manner. Live.ATC.net Link
I don't know if the glaciers are melting, as much as they just haven't grown as much to keep up.
It takes a lot of snow to make a glacier grow.
And warmer means more snow.
I agree with you IVANSRVIV.....

I am over closedminded people..... They have good intent but need to open there eyes completely....No more comments on that...

Boy, did we get some rain in florida......Our lakes are still below where they historically should be.....We have counties that rerouted our waterflow....its a shame,,,,,,,,,,its called greed which affects everything.......except the weather......lol....thank God!

So which is it? The Glaciers in N.America are shrinking because we're having "Global Cooling". I'm not trying to be rude, but it seems like you are trying to have it both ways. it simply doesn't make since to blame shrinking northern glaciers and growing southern glaciers on global warming.
I am not closed minded to the possibility of climate change. I am very open minded to the issue of cleaning up the environment and eliminating our addiction to foreign oil. I simply see too many holes in the arguements made by those promoting "man made climate change" A.K.A Global Warming.
I wasnt refering to you IVANSRVIVR as being closedminded......I am agreeing with you..... I was talking in general.........People in general need to be more open bigger ideas, not just there back yard....

1063. Patrap
Castor Oil Pollutes too..Link
To put the compact fluorescent mercury problem in perspective:
Each bulb contains about 0.005g mercury. There are some modern bulbs that contain as little as 0.002g mercury; look them up.

Mercury thermometers contain 0.5g-3g of mercury. If anyone ever broke a mercury thermometer in your house, you could easily have 0.5g-3g mercury between your floorboards and not know it. That's the equivalent of breaking 100 or more compact fluorescent bulbs in your house!

Not to mention old thermostats, which sometimes contain up to 10g mercury, old light switches, some of which used up to 5g mercury. You may also have the much bigger problem of lead paint.

The extra coal burned to power an incandescent light bulb releases more mercury into the atmosphere than is contained in a CF bulb. So, while they should be recycled, even if they are just thrown in a landfill, they release less mercury into the atmosphere than incandescent bulbs.

The mercury worries spread by the far right are just as much a fallacy as the doom-and-gloom spread by the far left. Things said on the EIB network are just as full of political BS as things said on CNN. Check facts, don't just buy into fear.

I, for one, think you should be able to use whatever light bulb you choose. But I encourage you to look into CF. They help reduce my electric bill, and provide more light in low wattage sockets. You don't have to care about saving the planet to have good reason to use them.
hog, I don't think anyone can say that the Environmental Protection Agency
is a tool of the far right. rotfl

This is just what the EPA says to do if you break
one of the new fluorescent light bulbs.

Link

What Never to Do with a Mercury Spill

Never use a vacuum cleaner to clean up mercury (but see the "What to Do if a Fluorescent Light Bulb Breaks" section below for more specific instructions about vacuuming broken fluorescent light bulbs). The vacuum will put mercury into the air and increase exposure.

Never use a broom to clean up mercury. It will break the mercury into smaller droplets and spread them.

Never pour mercury down a drain. It may lodge in the plumbing and cause future problems during plumbing repairs. If discharged, it can cause pollution of the septic tank or sewage treatment plant.

Never wash mercury-contaminated items in a washing machine. Mercury may contaminate the machine and/or pollute sewage.

Never walk around if your shoes might be contaminated with mercury. Contaminated clothing can also spread mercury around.

What to Do if a Fluorescent Light Bulb Breaks

Fluorescent light bulbs contain a very small amount of mercury sealed within the glass tubing. EPA recommends the following clean-up and disposal guidelines:

Before Clean-up: Ventilate the Room

Have people and pets leave the room, and don't let anyone walk through the breakage area on their way out.
Open a window and leave the room for 15 minutes or more.
Shut off the central forced-air heating/air conditioning system, if you have one.
Clean-Up Steps for Hard Surfaces

Carefully scoop up glass fragments and powder using stiff paper or cardboard and place them in a glass jar with metal lid (such as a canning jar) or in a sealed plastic bag.
Use sticky tape, such as duct tape, to pick up any remaining small glass fragments and powder.
Wipe the area clean with damp paper towels or disposable wet wipes and place them in the glass jar or plastic bag.
Do not use a vacuum or broom to clean up the broken bulb on hard surfaces.
Clean-up Steps for Carpeting or Rug

Carefully pick up glass fragments and place them in a glass jar with metal lid (such as a canning jar) or in a sealed plastic bag.
Use sticky tape, such as duct tape, to pick up any remaining small glass fragments and powder.
If vacuuming is needed after all visible materials are removed, vacuum the area where the bulb was broken.
Remove the vacuum bag (or empty and wipe the canister), and put the bag or vacuum debris in a sealed plastic bag.
Disposal of Clean-up Materials

Immediately place all cleanup materials outside the building in a trash container or outdoor protected area for the next normal trash.
Wash your hands after disposing of the jars or plastic bags containing clean-up materials.
Check with your local or state government about disposal requirements in your specific area. Some states prohibit such trash disposal and require that broken and unbroken mercury-containing bulbs be taken to a local recycling center.
Future Cleaning of Carpeting or Rug: Ventilate the Room During and After Vacuuming

The next several times you vacuum, shut off the central forced-air heating/air conditioning system and open a window prior to vacuuming.
Keep the central heating/air conditioning system shut off and the window open for at least 15 minutes after vacuuming is completed.
1066. Patrap
Yeah,well Im sure the 200,000 homes in Miss,LA, and Texas devastated and gutted in the Rita and Katrina storms heeded that advice to the letter. LOL!!!

Never saw 1 EPA outfit here in the 50plus structures we gutted or demolished in late 05 early 06.


BBC coverage about the winter storm in South and West England:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/7286921.stm
The pictures of battering waves in the photo-show on this page are quite impressive. In the other article http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7285859.stm
gusts up to 82 mph are reported.
1068. Patrap
Europe: Infrared satellite animation
Link
The EPA often worries about things that aren't that big of a deal. Any disagreement on that?
That's your opinion, fine.

I'm not giving my opinion

I'm just posting what the Environmental Protection Agency
says to do if you break one of the new fluorescent light bulbs.

If you broke a CF bulb in a 15'x15' room with 8ft celings, you'd be below the OSHA limits for mercury exposure.

The chemical that is most likely to kill anyone is cholesterol.

Check out what the EPA says to do about lead. Are you doing all of these things?
http://www.epa.gov/lead/pubs/leadinfo.htm
1072. N3EG
The worst problem I've had with CFLs is the driver circuitry burning up. They can fill a room with smoke really fast. They also blink faster in response to voltage dips - I once had my deaf granddaughter get my attention from the other end of the house by switching her lights on and off and making mine flicker.
1073. ycd0108
click on "sea height" to animate
http://www.stormsurf.com/locals/brit.shtml
At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone 13R [930 hPa] located near 19.3S 78.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts up to 145 knots. The cyclone is reported moving south-southwest at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane-Force Winds within 35 NN from the center

Storm-Force Winds within 60 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds within 80 NM from the center

Near Gale-Force Winds within 100 NM from the center extending up to 145 NM in the eastern semi-circle.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 21.7S 78.0E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 24.6S 77.9E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 28.1S 76.9E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropical)
72 HRS: 32.5S 74.6E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropical)

Additional Information
======================
Intense Tropical Cyclone Kamba has maintained its wonderful configuration of a powerful system. During the last 6 hours, however a deterioration on the cloud pattern seems to have started at 1700z. FT is based on DT. This system will track on the western edge of a strong and stationary upper level subtropical ridge. Kamba should soon begin to weaken due to the association with stronger windshear.

Extratropical transition should start beyond 24 hours. Available dynamic aids are in good agreement with the forecast scenario and present guidance is on the eastern edge of all NWP tracks in close agreement with the ECMWF solutions.
Hey, if you guys want to do something many times more effective than swapping your bulbs, go ahead and make the plunge if your nearly religous faith in the incomplete science of AGW is strong enough:

1. Move to a 600 sq ft flat within walking distance of your school/job/etc.
2. Trade in your H2 for a prius or sell it outright but still do not use public transport...walk/bike.
3a. Spend most of your money to install a geothermal well for heating/cooling...or just do without and sweat/freeze.
3b. Spend the rest of your money to install a solar panel on top of your building and do not gripe when three days of overcast causes you to miss your favorite weather blog for a while.
4. Install 2 sets of pipes, one potable water, the other grey water for use in everything but drinking.

If you haven't done this already, yet you are willing to tell everyone else what they should do, the hypocrisy looms large. If you have already done this, I must say the strength of your faith in what has become subjective research, the media's honesty and objectivity, politician's (both aisles) honesty and objectivity is quite impressive.

As for myself, I am all for a reasonable effort to reduce man's negative impacts on the planet/atmosphere/oceans. I simply do not have the faith that the problems, answers, causes, and effects have been thoroughly proven and I shall not cheer for energy facism until such time. Thus far the holes in the theory and the half-truths leave me unimpressed.
1076. nash28
Maggie- I have to say that was impressive. Can't argue that, and anyone who does is just drinkin' the koolaid without thought to the other side of the argument.

Well done.
1077. Patrap
Oil runs out in Spring of 2032,..Drive like a banshee till then..,LOL

Most Americans have a Brain and can filter out the Political rethoric and go with the data..

Others just cow up and snuggle to the Opinions of others that lean to their way of believing. That aint science.

Thats Congress Like..LOL




1077. Patrap 6:52 PM GMT on March 10, 2008
Oil runs out in Spring of 2032,..Drive like a banshee till then..


Negative, it is entirely reasonable and cost-effecitve to drive a fuel-efficient car in the name of gas prices, oil consumption, love for your soldier-relative, lessened emissions of pollutants, and the like. As for telling others how to live based on a shaky theory, that is a different story.

I would probably enter the field of alternate erengy research if it was funded and there were stable jobs. We should be looking to what happens when the oil tap runs dry. Instead, the brightest minds in the country cannot get funded for anything but combating AGW.
TROPICAL CYCLONE JOKWE ADVISORY NUMBER TWENTY-FIVE
=============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone 12R [947 hPa] located near 21.9S 40.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts up to 120 knots. The cyclone is reported moving south-southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane-Force Winds within 25 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds within 45 NM from the center

Gale-Force winds within 65 NM from the center

Near Gale-force winds within 100 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM from the center in the southern and eastern semi-circle

Forecast Position
=================================
12HRS: 23.1S 40.8E.
24HRS: 24.3S 40.4E.
48HRS: 25.6S 38.3E.
72HRS: 24.5S 37.7E.

Additional Information
========================
The system shows rapid variation of intensity. Currently, the system is strengthening with a visible eye on enhanced infrared radar pictures and is well defined on latest microwave imagery. Tropical Cyclone Jokwe is now again near intense tropical cyclone stage.

This system is expected to keep on tracking generally southeastward to southwards, toward a mid to upper level trough located south of the Mozambique Channel. On this track, Jokwe should be very near the east of Europa later tonight. By 24 hours in the forecast, this low should dissipate as a ridge rebuilds over the southern channel, resulting in slower motion and a more northwestward track
1080. Patrap
Water is the solution..it can Power this whole star system.
And will probably in the far future.
Hydrogen and Oxygen get the Shuttle to Orbit. Hydrogen is a unlimited Earth resource. Handling it,harnessing it.. is the Key.
But the push will come in the decades ahead. Not in the near future.
We are doomed to struggle with Oil for decades to come. So it is written..so it shall be.




Cool anomalies continue to expand across the atlantic!Ive been keeping tabs on the anomalies in the basin the past couple of weeks and the waters were indeed warm of the florida and up the eastcoast but thats changed on this update which of course will go up and down in the coming weeks.The MDR has always been cool so far this year but now its expanded a bit towards the african coast.Overall its something to moniter as we get into the tropical season in the next 3 months.

(Click Here) to see the view of those cool anomalies.

Also for those who are not aware there will be some big changes to the way the NHC does there things when tropical cyclones are present.

Here are some of the some of the changes!

Disturbances will be circled in yellow, orange or red for low, medium or high probability, respectively, of the potential for further development.

Additionally, the probability graphics, which were first included twice a day last year, will be issued four times a day to coincide with the tropical weather outlook, which has been given for 35 years four times a day.

The times of the forecast are changing as well to give news outlets, especially television evening news, more lead time to get the word out, said hurricane specialist Jamie Rhome of the National Hurricane Center during the 62nd Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference, which ends today in Charleston.

For instance, instead of giving the forecast every six hours starting at 11:30 a.m. Eastern Time, the forecast will move to every six hours starting at 8 a.m.

It will take some getting use to.

www.AdriansWeather.com

Cool anomalies continue to expand across the atlantic!

Thanks, 23. Those are always interesting.

Just to clarify, those anomalies are as relative to the Reynold's SST climatology. This climatology has gone through some adjustments for instrument biases and much work has been done to error check and look for cloud contaminated pixels, but it only runs from 1971 to 2000. This is all that is available, obviously, as it runs from when satellites were first launched.

I must say it is as complete as possible, yet we must consider that it only captures 30 years. When these climatologies are used for GW opining, they just don't withstand scrutiny as they only cover part of any multidecadal cycle.

They are very useful in determining the SST relative to an average from 1971 to 2000. They could also be called a "measurement of the depature from a recent 30 year average".
Ive been useing his maps for years....

Not sure why there is no comments on the NHC site on the upcoming changes this season.
23, you can seen all upcoming and recent changes for all of NWS here.

For the currently posted NHC product descriptions, see this. That site may not yet reflect the changes, but it will.

Finally, to get on the mailing list for all NWS changes in products, etc. go here and select "nws-changes", but be warned, you will get about 15 emails a week on everything from "they replaced the radiosonde at NWS's Slidell office" to "they are changing the timing of public updates at NHC." The list usually does give useful warnings of NCEP model data changes.
Adrian, could you provide a link to that info?
Faint sense of anticlimax here in the UK: OK it's windy but there are only sporadic power outages and garage roofs coming off, and some water on the floor if you live next to the sea in a few ill-chosen places. Perhaps the next storm (Wednesday) may be different. Why do I get the impression the news media is disappointed (rather than relieved) ?
1084. atmoaggie 3:35 PM EDT on March 10, 2008
23, you can seen all upcoming and recent changes for all of NWS here.

For the currently posted NHC product descriptions, see this. That site may not yet reflect the changes, but it will.

Thanks buddy!

Yea a spoke to a friend at the NHC this past week on these changes and i was told a link to the new changes will be posted in the next few weeks.
I know that it isnt hurricane season but there are other weather related issues which would be more profitable to discuss here than any politics. Of is apparent that no one is changing anyone else's mind. Let's keep in mind that this is a weather blog.
Anyone watching the cold front building over SE Texas? Looks like its getting stronger. They have us here in Tampa under a 30% chance of rain on Friday. Any thoughts on this thing holding together (any kind of severe weather expectations)
1085. weatherboykris 3:38 PM EDT on March 10, 2008
Adrian, could you provide a link to that info?

Not a problem man!

Here you go.
AWeatherLover did you get my email!
23, finally, to get on the mailing list for all NWS changes in products, etc. go here and select "nws-changes", but be warned, you will get about 15 emails a week on everything from "they replaced the radiosonde at NWS's Slidell office" to "they are changing the timing of public updates at NHC." The list usually does give useful warnings of NCEP model data changes.

Sorry, I think I screwed up the blog for a moment there. Man, posting a link is really hard ;-)
1092. hcubed
I like the lines from the EPA:

If consumers remain concerned regarding safety, they may consider not utilizing fluorescent lamps in situations where they could easily be broken. Consumers may also consider avoiding CFL usage in bedrooms or carpeted areas frequented by infants, small children, or pregnant women. Finally, consider not storing too many used/spent lamps before recycling as that may increase your chances of breakage. Don’t forget to properly recycle your used fluorescent bulbs so they don’t break and put mercury into our environment.

Good advice, except some areas are going to outlaw the use of incandecants. No other bulbs to use.

Second, go to the store and check the place of manufacture: China. Haven't yet found a US manufacturer. Could it be that they're cheaper/easier to make if the workplace rules aren't followed? Why else would there be no US makers?

So China handles the mercury to make CFL's, and they have a problem with lead paint...
1093. BtnTx
There are LED based replacement bulbs that can be used as an alternative to CFL. They are energy efficient and safe. They are expensive, but they are supposed to last a long time.
I did Adrian and I replied. Sorry it took so long to respond. I don't have wifi here so I am using my iPhone, which takes a while to navigate. Thanks again.
Highest Gusts Reported Today over Western Europe (knots)

CULDROSE, United Kingdom (EGDR) - 1550 UTC - 65
GUERNSEY, United Kingdom (EGJB) - 1620 UTC - 62
JERSEY, United Kingdom (EGJJ) - 1650 UTC - 62
GUIPAVAS, France (LFRB) - 1220 UTC - 55
CORK, Ireland (EICK) - 1600 UTC - 53
QUIMPER PLUGUFF, France (LFRQ) - 1600 UTC - 47
Southwest Indian Ocean has very intense tropical cyclones this season. =/

4th in a row, is there a pattern here, LOL

Hondo: 906hPa (very intense)
Ivan: 930hPa (intense)
Jokwe: 930hPa (intense)
Kamba 930hPa (intense)
Speaking of mobile i picked up one of these babies works great!
another system to form near 12S 60E?

CMC model for 93S?
....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

This afternoon visible imagery showed a vigorous squall moving across Eastern Texas, and into Louisiana and Arkansas. This activity is clearly associated with a surface cold front as indicated by the cloud ropes observed. In addition, surface observations indicated this feature associated with a weak low pressure area in the vicinity of 30N/94W. This feature is being enhanced surface inflow off the Gulf in conjunction with upper divergence between an upper trough over the Central Plains and a broad ridge over the Caribbean. Doppler radar is showing numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms over Southeastern Texas and much of Louisiana. The cold front is also clearly identified on radar imagery. In the meantime, a surface ridge remains over the Gulf of Mexico providing for a weak surface pressure gradient resulting in light winds which is driving 6-7 ft northeast swells mainly over open waters. Widespread low clouds continue to be scattered over the Gulf of Mexico which is caused by remnant moisture found in the tranquil marine layer (little mixing occurring). High level cirrus clouds are seen extending from Southeast Mexico across the Central Gulf Region and into the Atlantic. Water vapor imagery showed these clouds clearly associated with high level moisture advection between the two aforementioned upper level features. Fair weather dominates elsewhere across the Southeastern United States where the surface ridge is in control.

A very well define frontal boundary has stalled out across the Western Atlantic with a band of cloudiness and showers extending from Straits of Florida, across the Northern Bahamas and within 120 nm of 28N/70W 30N/60W 36N/50W. In the meantime, a stable marine layer situated over the Western Atlantic is supporting stable air low clouds across much the region behind the front. As the front struggles westward, the surface ridge ahead is tightening the pressure gradient and maintaining a surge of steady northeasterlies and fair weather from 70W to 50W.

by W456

Visible image taken earlier this afternoon shwowing rope clouds over Southern Texas indicating the presence of a front.



Later, radar imagery showed the front has just move offshore Southern Texas, illustrated by the band of showers and possible t-storms extending from the main area of low pressure over Eastern Texas.

CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN REGION....

The upper level pattern across the region consist of a large 250 hpa ridge centered near 14N/75W and a trough that dips into the Eastern Caribbean near Grenada. Abundant dry/stable air aloft...especially over the Eastern Caribbean where convergence is favored...is resulting in moderate to strong subsidence and fair weather dominates most of the basin. The weather will be further modified by patches of low level clouds that are invading the region south of the ridge. Trades are rather steady at 10 knots...increasing to 15 knots over the Southwest Caribbean. This is pushing 4-7 ft swells over most parts and 7-8 ft swells across the Southwest Caribbean.

by W456

Pat the more I think on it the more inclined I am to agree with your opinion of the pilot. He had no business trying to land. When you've used up your margin of error it's time to back off no matter how good you think you are. Particularly if others lives and property are at stake. Hope he got a proper chewing and some time off without pay to think it over.
1102. nash28
That pilot has zero business trying to land that aircraft. Peoples lives in danger, for him to try and be a hero was asinine! He was fortunate enough to touch and go his way out of a sure disaster.
Some N.C ski resorts will close early in 2weeks.Warm temps above 50 and rain made most of the snow melt.
Hit a couple of pilot forums and looked at it all again. Whole deal was wrong. Bunch of lucky people. Tower should have never put them on that runway. Pilots should have never accepted it and aborted long before if they did. I don't care how d@mn busy your airport is or how many others you are going to back up, close the dicy runways. Some fool in a company Lear wants to try it maybe but tower is still responsible. Doesn't matter how many successful landings you've had that computer will tell you if you're over the design limits (they were). I don't care if the 7th son of the 7th son of The Red Baron is pilot and you've got all your national pride wrapped up in the landing I don't want to be on the plane.
So... Could that be a Tropical Depression moving into the big bend area Sat????


Doesn't look all that frontal.
Lord we have a few cool days and all of a sudden GW is a hoax. What a bunch of politico types posting here that listen to "scientific" arguments on AM radio.

The Problem is of course, that even a degree change on average, in our heavenly populated world, can have catastrophic consequences.

Now with fuel prices crippling our Economy I think some are feeling self conscious if not guilty of resisting regulation that would have been good for America had it been enacted decades ago. (Like the Japanese did in their auto industry.) Allowing energy Companies to "self regulate" and even influence policy has been the hight of ignorance.

1107. FLBlake
Yes, "a few cool days". Many parts of the world are suffering from the coldest season in 50 years.
"The Problem is of course, that even a degree change on average, in our heavenly populated world, can have catastrophic consequences."

I have a question about that.

The earth temp normally fluxs a degree, little more, little less. This year has been a perfect example of that.

Since we are told that we have the technology to change the climate on this planet - if we act right now.
To actually alter the climate on the planet. That's a pretty big deal.

But yet, somehow we do not have the technology to survive a 1/2 of a degree, or even a whole degree in temp change in the next few hundred years.

How is that possible?



Just really average in the US. Still actually above in many places.


And you have a degree in ....

I think its about people suffering that cant adjust and not wanting to harm others. But yea, exactly :

"we do not have the technology to survive a 1/2 of a degree, or even a whole degree in temp change"


Well, The AC wont last forever. And disastrous climatic changes for populations are often less than a degree.


Im tired of political hacks arguing without any scientific reference whatsoever. Don't come in here and do that. Stay on your own blog posting drivel or Present new and valid research.

Im not going to be your reference librarian.


This isnt myspace.
1107. FLBlake 7:22 PM CDT on March 10, 2008
Yes, "a few cool days". Many parts of the world are suffering from the coldest season in 50 years.


LOL...



Cold?

Sure, some places have been cold - for a short time that is... for example:



Anybody who thinks even a record cold wave is proof that global warming doesn't exist is obviously, well, you know. Even South Africa, which had snow for the first time on record last year, hasn't been that cold (a few day cold snap again proves nothing):



The same can be said where I live (and all of the massive snowstorms also prove nothing; precipitation has been twice the average for the last few months; more precipitation = more snow, this applies to much of the central U.S, the fact that it has been colder also helps of course, although it still melts in a few days, at least here):

Gosh we almost got to Normal in north America, overall, were it not for the warming in Canada and Alaska. But whew look at everywhere else. Thank you STL, that has been posted here before, of course, but if you are too busy "saying what you think", or "exposing the lies" you tend to miss the all important pesky details.

Like the truth. But hey, reality is probably a liberal conspiracy anyway.

1106. JFLORIDA 12:18 AM GMT on March 11, 2008
Lord we have a few cool days and all of a sudden GW is a hoax. What a bunch of politico types posting here that listen to "scientific" arguments on AM radio.

"I think its about people suffering that cant adjust and not wanting to harm others."

You could also be a product of the propaganda that you choose to listen to.

How would you feel if the same news was reported, just as accurately,
this way:

Global Warming Advocates Destroy Environment
In their uninformed rush for bio-fuels, more land is being cleared for bio-fuels. Releasing more CO2, putting more demand on water, and polluting with fertilizers, perticides, and run-off.

Global Warming Advocates Responsible for Highest De-Forestation and Record Destruction of Rainforests:
As bio-fuels become more in demand, the push for more palm oil, and the increase in price, has led to record rain forest destruction.

Global Warming Advocates Responsible for Extinction of Orangutans:
The rising price of palm oil for bio-fuel has led to record clearing of rainforests. The lack of habitat has forced orangutans to invade palm plantations, where the owners have placed a bounty - reward on every orangutan killed.
Estimated that because of bio-fuels, the great apes could be extinct within the next 20 years.

Global Warming Advocates Responsible for World Food Shortage
As more money is to be made in converting human food, cereals, into bio-fuel, the UN has announced another world food shortage. It is estimated that over one million people could die as a result of this in the next few years.

All in the way you spin it.

.



What? so Im supposed to get mad and dispute GW? Come on where did that stuff come from?

See this is what I mean. "spin" actually has nothing to do with it. Its not a he said/she said kind of thing.

What the heck is a "Global Warming Advocate." Thats totally absurd. Its beyond absurd.

Please present new research/data to back your claims.

If you think the truth is just swaying political argument you personally have more serious problems than Global Warming.
It's all true.
1115. FLBlake
Geez, a little defensive are we? I don't think I used any data to deny anything, did I? I hope you feel better now.

I just read quite a few articles about this winter being the coldest for many places, in 50 years.

http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2008/01/06/br_r_r_where_did_globa l_warming_go/

http://www.washingtontimes.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071219/COMMENTARY/10575140

I like this about the ice.
http://www.thedailygreen.com/environmental-news/latest/arctic-sea-ice-47121205

Let's not forget about how accurate all these temperature records are.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=YjU3Yjc0OWYxYWFkMjJlYmZmM2I0ZjYzNWVkY2JhY2I=

I wish I had some real scientific charts and graphs to show how right I am, but all I keep finding are these articles.
http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/908

All these right-wing neocon news sources must be showing my ignorance.

I wish there was an example to show me how to use the "link" function though.
The Problem is of course, that even a degree change on average, in our heavenly populated world, can have catastrophic consequences.

This is true. Think of the human body. Even a 1°F increase in temperature can cause fever. Why a measly 1°F matters, we don't know, but it just does. It's the same with the earth's temperature.

Besides, if nothing is done to negate the effects of global warming, average global temperatures will go WAY up within the next 20 years or so. By 2030, I wouldn't be surprised to see it get to at least 115°F during the hottest days of summer down here in Louisiana. But that's if something isn't done about it. And a 15 to 20°F temperature change makes a significant difference.
Evening everyone.

1051. latitude25 10:24 AM EDT on March 10, 2008

Baha, be sure and read what the EPA says about handling those bulbs.

Fluorescent Light Bulb Information

The lamp contains a small amount of mercury,


Thanks for the info, lat. I appreciate it.

1081. hurricane23 3:10 PM EDT on March 10, 2008

Also for those who are not aware there will be some big changes to the way the NHC does there things when tropical cyclones are present.


The changes sound mostly for the better. It shouldn't be that hard to adjust . . .
1086. PaulBedfordUK 3:40 PM EDT on March 10, 2008
Faint sense of anticlimax here in the UK: . . . Why do I get the impression the news media is disappointed (rather than relieved) ?


A disaster would have made more exciting news . . . LOL
Thanks Baja, enjoying this cool weather?

1116. KoritheMan
This is true. Think of the human body. Even a 1°F increase in temperature can cause fever. Why a measly 1°F matters, we don't know, but it just does. It's the same with the earth's temperature.

no no, it's not the same thing at all.

The planet has natural swings of several degrees. Some in short time frames, and some not.
Our bodies do not do that.

It was the cold swing in the 60's-70's that caused some people to panic and think we were heading into another ice age.

1102. nash28 7:03 PM EDT on March 10, 2008
That pilot has zero business trying to land that aircraft. Peoples lives in danger, for him to try and be a hero was asinine! He was fortunate enough to touch and go his way out of a sure disaster.


I thought someone said it was a downburst that caused the problem. I'm not clear on how forecastable they are, but wouldn't that weather phenomenon create some unexpected effects for the pilots?
I just read quite a few articles about this winter being the coldest for many places, in 50 years.

No doubt many of those articles have been based on actual data - but data which was twisted to make it look like it has been far colder than it actually has been (I especially like the articles that claim that an entire century of warming was erased over the last few months when in actuality you only need to go back to 2000 to find a colder month). And, (not so coincidently) just as La Nina peaked and started to decline over the last few weeks, global temperature anomaly maps have shown considerable warming, which points the finger at the cause of the cooling (nevermind that last year set some monthly and seasonal records, including a yearly land temperature record - and yes, I do recognize that natural cycles like ENSO do cause large fluctuations in year-to-year temperatures, the long-term trend is more important, last year was influenced by El Nino, although not on the scale that 1998 was, which had a much stronger El Nino followed by a weaker La Nina).

Also, I should add (to my previous post) that just as a heat wave doesn't prove global warming, a cold wave doesn't prove global cooling, it is again about longer-term trends.
The changes sound mostly for the better. It shouldn't be that hard to adjust . . .

Huh? Can you enlighten me on this, Baha? Preferably through WU mail?

no no, it's not the same thing at all.

The planet has natural swings of several degrees. Some in short time frames, and some not.
Our bodies do not do that.

It was the cold swing in the 60's-70's that caused some people to panic and think we were heading into another ice age.


But the fact still stands that 1°F increase in temperature CAN make a difference. Take snow, for example; the freezing point is 32°F, and it can snow at that temperature. Usually though, unless the ground is very cold from prior days of freezing weather, it won't stick. If it gets just a few degrees colder though, it can stick.
The weather was good and bad. Cool temps were OK. Cloudy all day was not. I'm not used to days of overcast weather anymore . . .LOL

To all the pro and anti GW debaters out there, can we end the political debate? I don't have a problem with erring on the side of caution, but it would be great to avoid rehashing the same old points. Right now I doubt anybody has come across any NEW information on GW, whether pro or anti.

Can we let it rest?
Also, even before much was even known about La Nina, it was known that it causes global temperatures to drop (the following was from 1988, the current La Nina is even stronger in several ways, like the lowest Jan-Feb MEI since 1974 - also the second lowest on record, the coldest February Nino 3.4 index on record, suprassing 1950, the highest February SOI on record, although the CPC is on drugs and is only listing the ONI at -1.5 when it is clearly lower based on monthly readings):

Already La Nina has been credited with a role in causing this summer's drought in the Midwest, the deluges that flooded Bangladesh in September and the severe hurricane season in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. While widespread attention has been paid to the greenhouse effect -- the trend toward global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide and other gases in the atmosphere -- some scientists believe that this winter La Nina will bring on a dramatic, though probably temporary, drop in average global temperatures. Says meteorologist and oceanographer James O'Brien of Florida State University: "We are predicting that by next year, average global temperature will retreat to 1950s levels, slowing up planetary warming by 30 to 35 years."
1125. Patrap
NWS Spaceflight Meteorology Group STS-123 Launch Forecast Link
1126. nash28
You want a great GW debate??? Visit my blog, and click on the link in my title paragraph. If you have any intellectual honesty after perusing some of the articles, then you will be able to actually see both sides, as opposed to "we're all to blame and we're all gonna die in 30 years".
1127. nash28
STL- Why am I banned from your blog???
It was the cold swing in the 60's-70's that caused some people to panic and think we were heading into another ice age

"Some people" - the MEDIA (which is a colossal hype machine, of course, they hype everything to sell more). Here are the real facts about the "global cooling myth" (click link to read whole article):

Every now and again, the myth that "we shouldn't believe global warming predictions now, because in the 1970's they were predicting an ice age and/or cooling" surfaces. Recently, George Will mentioned it in his column (see Will-full ignorance) and the egregious Crichton manages to say "in the 1970's all the climate scientists believed an ice age was coming" (see Michael Crichton’s State of Confusion ). You can find it in various other places too [here, mildly here, etc]. But its not an argument used by respectable and knowledgeable skeptics, because it crumbles under analysis. That doesn't stop it repeatedly cropping up in newsgroups though.
rah rah rah

Its a natural cycle people, the quicker everyone understands this, the quicker everyone can stop losing sleep over it.

Should we become more clean? Yes without a doubt, but not by using scare tactics and making politicians fatter in the pocket.

The whole GW debate is lame anymore, there are facts and statistics to back up both sides claims, all anyone ever ends up doing is arguing over what reference you want to put out there.

rah rah rah
1130. nash28
Bueller???

Did I kill the blog?
1123. BahaHurican
I don't have a problem with erring on the side of caution,

But that's not where we are heading with this right now.

Typical humans, we think we know so much more than we really do
and we are running around helter skelter
totally forgetting the fact that we are humans

The rainforests really are being detroyed at the fastest rate ever
because of clearing land for palm oil plantations for bio-fuel.

The orangutans really are heading to rapid extinction because of those same palm oil plantations.

The world really is in a world food shortage because cereals are being diverted to bio-fuel and it is estimated that millions could starve.

Water use, pesticides, fertilizers, etc really are on the increase because more land is being cleared to convert to farm land to grow bio-fuels.

The cost of every thing down line from what was cereal, is rapidly rising, because of those cereals being diverted to bio-fuel. Not only a limited supply, but some refief agencies are being priced out of the market.

and on and on

We are creating an environmental disaster out of this.
Right now.

1132. BtnTx
Well stated latitude. Let's have all of us humans starve to deathe to save the planet from global warming. Then all will be well.
Hey. I just discovered that if I hit that little red KML button on the NRL page it will put the hurricane tracks into my Google Earth . . . .

Kewl . . .
1109. JFLORIDA 12:31 AM GMT on March 11, 2008
Just really average in the US. Still actually above in many places.


And you have a degree in ....


A bit condescending, huh? This is nothing more than name calling without doing the name calling.

And the answer is atmopsheric science, specifically, atmospheric chemistry and numerical modeling. How about you? Never know who you might run into in a blog on WU.
1135. BtnTx
http://www.dailytech.com/Researcher+Basic+Greenhouse+Equations+Totally+Wrong/article10973.htmLink
latitude, the true GW advocates do not like biofuels any more than you do. Burning ethanol emits more CO2, more hydrocarbons and more NOx than gasoline.
I'm still saying, this has all been said before. On BOTH sides. I don't think anybody else is being convinced, one way or the other.

So, can we let the debate rest until we have new evidence to weigh? I don't mean the GLOBAL debate, just the one in the blog.

Anyway, I'm beat. I started work at 6:30 this morning, and I have another early start tomorrow. I think I'm going to turn in.

Have a good night, everybody!
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NUMBER TWENTY-SIX - Upgraded To Intense Tropical Cyclone
===============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone 12R [940 hPa] located near 22.8S 40.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts up to 130 knots. The cyclone is reported moving south-southeast at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane-Force Winds within 30 NM from the center

Storm-Force Winds within 50 NM from the center

Gale-Force winds within 70 NM from the center

Near Gale-force winds within 80 NM from the center extending up to 110 NM from the center in the southern and eastern semi-circle

Forecast Position and Intensity
=================================
12HRS: 24.4S 41.1E - 85 knots (CYCLONE TROPICAL)
24HRS: 25.3S 40.5E - 80 knots (CYCLONE TROPICAL)
48HRS: 25.4S 39.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE TROPICAL)
72HRS: 24.4S 38.3E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
The system shows rapid variation of intensity. Jokwe gave its best presentation between 1630z and 2200z (unfortunately during nighttime blackout of satellite pictures, but it is likely that it maintains DT around 5.5/6.0. Making CI at 5.5 during that time) so Jokwe is upgraded to Intense Tropical Cyclone stage with winds at 90 knots. SInce 2200z, overall configuration has deteriorated.

This system is expected to keep on tracking generally southeastwards to southward, toward a mid to upper level trough located south of the Mozambique Channel. Jokwe has passed around 2000z at 35 Nm to the north of Europa Island where a minimal pressure of 985 hPa has been measured.

By 24 hours in the forecast, the aforementioned mid to upper level low should dissipate as a ridge rebuilds over the southern channel, resulting in a slower motion and a more northwestward track.


---
what a life for this cyclone.. strengthen to cyclone stage strike Northern Madagascar causing it to weaken. Redevelop in the Mozambiquw Channel to an intense tropical cyclone, strike Mozambique coastline causing it to weaken again below Tropical Cyclone stage. It manages again to re-enter the Mozambique Channel to strengthen once again to an intense tropical cyclone. Forecast has it turn northwest towards Mozambique again for hopefully its final landfall as a severe tropical storm.
1130. nash28 1:52 AM GMT on March 11, 2008

Bueller???

Did I kill the blog?

**********

No, you didn't kill the blog...you made STL uncomfortable with the truth and shunning you is his method of dealing with opposition to his pet ideas.

Heck Shen would have you censor anyone he has likewise decided to shun by demanding that you not quote those he is shunning in your replies. They even falsely accused me of being another blogger from the past. They knew better, it was simply a way to minimize the truth of my words. I thought I heard the faint thud of goose-stepping in the background...no matter. No apology either.

Ignorance is bliss and those who blindly shun and ban you from their blogs are, obviously, very blissful people. You are quite capable of clear and concise writting...keep up the good fight, in the long run it will be well worth it.
STL, I have the late 1970's Nat Geo with Global cooling as the main story. I also have the 84 one that covers the 82-3 El Nino, which mentions a possible trend towards warmer temps than previously thought.

I see the current fuel crisis as an opportunity for the United States to be the true leader of the world in developing clean (not from food supply) energy. It would take a "moon shot" type effort by Private business with Government incentives. I would like nothing better than for us to be the world leader in clean energy, which would reinvogorate our economy unlike anything that has occurred in my lifetime. I look at the energy issue from a different perspective than most environmental advocates.
Burning ethanol emits more CO2

And just where did the CO2 that is emitted come from? Hmmm... Plants take in CO2 from the air... ethanol is made from plants...

And, using other plants, like switchgrass, can give far more energy than it takes to produce (540% vs. 25% for corn ethanol - and no worry about using food for fuel, switchgrass is also native, and can be grown on land not suitable for food crops; other materials can also be used like wood waste).
1136. atmoaggie 2:07 AM GMT on March 11, 2008
latitude, the true GW advocates do not like biofuels any more than you do. Burning ethanol emits more CO2, more hydrocarbons and more NOx than gasoline.

I know, but it still does not stop humans from smelling money.

Downburst was final straw. Most likely would have got away with it if it hadn't happened. However plane was coming in with a crosswind beyond rated angle and speed/gust specs before downburst. Sooner or later that's going to catch up with somebody and then disaster. Several posts seemed to imply that is accepted common practice. Several were discussing special tricks like dropping landing gear on one side, over-riding computer settings etc. Hard to tell which were real pilots and which were blow-hards (Wish casters?) but ones that worried me most were not the ones who were the loudest but some low key exchanges about tricks to get away with landings which exceeded design specs. Good stuff to know if need arose but not as standard practice. Just came away with general feel of a system running at absolute limits. Ok if I'm running my lathe and chancing wrecking a part if thats what the boss wants. Not OK if machine is an airplane and I'm the product being risked.
and you think Exxon has not figured out that if you water and fertilize and pesticide switchgrass

you increase your yield.

It's not going to be grown by some old hippy with dirty toenails in their backyard.

It's going to go commercial.
1145. Patrap
NASA Launch Blog Link

No technical issues are in work at this point, and only a 10 percent chance of weather prohibiting a liftoff at 2:28 a.m. EDT. The only concern is for low clouds moving onshore at the time of launch.
Michael,
After considering the energy to produce it, and less available energy per unit volume, there is no net gain. Still to be considered is the increased hydrocarbons and NOx. Letting the corn/sugar/switchgrass grow for food supply and the rest return to a natural state would be far more useful. A forest instead of fields would suquester more CO2 than the same field would replace in fossil fuels.

Simply stated: More efficient use of resources would have far more profoud effects on the evironment. More efficient vehicles and more efficient use of vehicles would be much more reasonable, effective, and cost-effective than any ethanol answer. I've said before, I am not against intelligent and reasonable ways of reducing our impact on the planet/atmosphere/oceans, just not to the point of energy facism.

$10/lb of beef is coming. Milk will be $10/gallon. Iowa has convinced enough politicians that corn is the only way to make ethanol. Are you sure this is what you want?
1141. MichaelSTL 2:15 AM GMT on March 11, 2008
Burning ethanol emits more CO2

And just where did the CO2 that is emitted come from? Hmmm... Plants take in CO2 from the air... ethanol is made from plants...

And, using other plants, like switchgrass, can give far more energy than it takes to produce (540% vs. 25% for corn ethanol - and no worry about using food for fuel, switchgrass is also native, and can be grown on land not suitable for food crops).

*************

Hold your horses there STL.

Plants take in CO2 and slice off the carbon for use in their growth while releasing the oxygen back into the environment. It is, usually, only during natural decomposition (rotting)or combustion (fire)that the carbon combines with the oxygen in the atmosphere to form CO2 as well as water. The black you see in smoke is actually free carbon which is not the same as CO2.

One simple way to sequester Carbon and therefore potential CO2 would be to bury all plant waste which would prevent the carbon from combining with oxygen and releaseing CO2.

Switchgrass? Are you saying that all the gurus on the planet chose corn over swithgrass? 540% vs 25% is a huge difference in output and it just doesn't seem possible that they could have missed such an opportunity. How can that be? Do you have an explanation?
Lat25, we are already growing everything half the world eats commercially. If commercial agriculture can help break our addiction to oil that comes from our enemies who use the oil money to better arm themselves, I'm all for it. the fact is most of the folks we buy oil from would wipe us off the map given the opportunity. Our best resource in the USA is our ability to grow food. Why not grow our energy alongside it. Is there something wrong with farmers making money instead of our enemies?
I'm not that convinced GW politics is driving bio fuels. Seems like $100/brl oil might have a little bit to do with it. Government actions can and do distort markets but not nearly to the extent the politicos would like us to believe. Issue facing us is not what kind but how much particularly as a nation.


"A forest instead of fields would suquester more CO2 than the same field would replace in fossil fuels."

That's a given.

But aren't we mandated to produce X amount of ethanol in the next X years?
I forget the numbers.
I think Cornell is doing another study on how much new land, forests destroyed, water, fertilizer, pesticides, etc that will take.
Have you seen that study yet? I'm looking for it.

"$10/lb of beef is coming. Milk will be $10/gallon."

And all of this coming at a time, when the largest demographic in this country is going on a fixed income and can not afford it.

1148. Ivansrvivr 2:34 AM GMT on March 11, 2008
Why not grow our energy alongside it. Is there something wrong with farmers making money instead of our enemies?

I didn't mean to imply that at all.

There are two big problems with it though.

Cornell U did a study that it would take approx 95% of the land mass of this country,
to grow just the fuel we need for our transportation industry.
That in itself, is a ecological disaster.

We have very few farmers. Most is owned and run by huge corporations and businesses. So there really are very few farmers involved.

The energy companies are just swapping over from buying land to punch a hole in it,
to buying land to plow and irrigate it.

No matter what crop you choose, they will all require lots of water, fertilizer, pesticides, etc.

There are many things driving the price of oil. Speculation on the part of investors, increasing demand in emerging nations, the roughly $.75 a gallon tax by the fed govt plus your local taxes are helping too. The influx of money to oil rich countries that are constantly arming themselves is major cause of instability both geo-politically and economically around the world. Just this week, Chavez has been "sabre rattling" towards Panama, Iran never stops threatening us, and China is undergoing massive arms buildup much like Germany in the 1930's but on much larger scale. Those are a few of the reasons oil is so high.
I did research project about agricultural chemicals draining into the everglades as a science project in high school( a long time ago ). I realize the destructive potential of chems abused in agriculture well. The Corps may own the land, but crops don't grow on their own. Something that I support that many argue about is selective breeding (aka geneticically engineered) crops that are drought, insect resistant and thrive in poor soil, opening up areas to agriculture never before available. "Reverse Osmosis" desalinization of deep ground water and seawater for large scale irrigation has potential for arid areas too. Both processes could eliminate much unnecessary use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.
Typical humans, we think we know so much more than we really do
and we are running around helter skelter
totally forgetting the fact that we are humans

The rainforests really are being detroyed at the fastest rate ever
because of clearing land for palm oil plantations for bio-fuel.

The orangutans really are heading to rapid extinction because of those same palm oil plantations.

The world really is in a world food shortage because cereals are being diverted to bio-fuel and it is estimated that millions could starve.

Water use, pesticides, fertilizers, etc really are on the increase because more land is being cleared to convert to farm land to grow bio-fuels.

The cost of every thing down line from what was cereal, is rapidly rising, because of those cereals being diverted to bio-fuel. Not only a limited supply, but some refief agencies are being priced out of the market.

and on and on

We are creating an environmental disaster out of this.
Right now.


Now THAT is a fact.



And just where did the CO2 that is emitted come from? Hmmm... Plants take in CO2 from the air... ethanol is made from plants...


You have to take into account the ecosystem being destroyed to grow corn. Sure, ethanol production will eventually counteract this, but it will take decades, at least.
You have to take into account the ecosystem being destroyed to grow corn

Corn, corn, corn... You obviously aren't really reading my comments about much better non-food, natural alternatives (some of which produce 20+ times more energy output than corn)...


There are many things driving the price of oil....

Especially the record profits the greedy companies are making...
Biofuels are NOT the solution to the CO2 crisis, especially not ethanol. Probably the best short-term solution is carbon sequestration. Using nearly pure oxygen instead of plain air will make it easier to trap CO2. Instead of having to separate CO2 from air, you just capture all the gas that comes off, which is actually easier. It also locks up some of the nasty pollutants. Burning coal with pure oxygen also allows for higher temperatures in the power plant, which leads to increased Carnot efficiency.

Eventually, the world will turn to solar power for most of its energy, and LED's will be the lighting source. All it will take is for efficiency to increase and prices to drop for both, and LED's could use improved phosphors to make a more natural light.

Cars will still have to use fossil fuels for a while, even if that makes hippies cry. Eventually, they will move to electric. Don't count on fuel cell powered cars.
Actually, the main thing driving up the price of oil is irrationally exhuberant investors riding the latest bubble. Oil prices WILL drop. Trust me.
Sadly, the technology just isn't in place for switchgrass ethanol production. It will probably take at least several decades, even it we do figure it out.

And nothing will change this: Ethanol has 27% less energy per gallon than gasoline. Ethanol is also more dense than gasoline. That not only means that you'll fill up more often, but it also means that more energy will be used moving the fuel. This isn't a deal breaker, but it definately is a serious disadvantage to the fuel.
And you have a degree in ....


A bit condescending, huh? This is nothing more than name calling without doing the name calling.



What, if they have a degree in climatology or meteorology then their opinion would matter because his subjectivity would be backed by a legitimate thought out conclusion - hopefully.


What someone "believes" is of no consequence.

The temp of the earth is rising.
Greenhouse Gases in the atmosphere causes the temp to increase.
Mankind has greatly increased the amount Greenhouse gases while eliminating many greenhouse gas reducers.

What part of that do you have contrary information for? You should present it. NOW


I wonder how many think that the scientific peer review process couldn't pick out something caused by a natural normal fluctuation.


Dont you think they thought of that? COME ON!!!


Or, there is a huge conspiracy in science against corporations because scientists don't like money?! Right?

Just because they avoid discussing it on AM radio with Rush Limbaugh doesn't mean they are hiding something.

There are other implications to continued unbridled use of fossil fuels also.
1160. FLBlake
Yes, those greedy oil companies I assume.
http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2007/20070323.html
isn't anyone tired of being lead around by the nose by people exploiting your ignorance and fear of complexity?
1163. FLBlake
So, the big five have increased exploritory spending over 50% in 2006 over 2005. The twenty-next lowest never reduced this spending, but increased since 1998.

What's the point here? Who doesn't want us drill in Alaska? Who doesn't want to drill off Florida, while the Chinese pump Cuban oil 90 miles from Key West? Who doesn't want wind farms out of site off Nantucket Sound?

If the oil companies want to under-spend themselves out of future production thru exploration, let them. Other companies will take the role. I suppose you agree with the hildabeast wanting to sieze billions of dollars of private money to, redistribute it. Sounds a little chavezian to me.

I'd prefer to give government less power over most things in life. I guess we disagree here.
That wouldn't solve anything. Alaska and Florida do not have the oil people think, it hasn't been cost effective. Not to mention the Alaskan Outback is a DISASTER from the hardly limited drilling there.

And yes i have seen it.



I suppose you agree with the hildabeast wanting to sieze billions of dollars of private money to, redistribute it. Sounds a little chavezian to me.




Private MONEY = HAHHA, you were born yesterday.

In Alaska they ARE GIVEN OUR OIL, YES YOURS AND MINE, ON FEDERAL LANDS and we take 30 percent of PROFITS > ONLY - meaning they NEVER LOSE MONEY.

I personally do not get any deals like that from the Feds - Worth Billions and Billions - Do you???

Oil Companies own NONE of the oil they pump in the US. They sell OUR oil back to us.
1165. Patrap
Exxon 2017

If temps are rising so fast, why is the antarctic glacier growing as fast as the arctic is melting? how can Global Warming be proven with only 50 years of solid data? That is barely a snapshot if data compared to cycles that last hundreds, even thousands of years. Look at history...when the Vikings explored Greenland in the latter 13th century-it was green!!! Then the climate shifted into what was known as the "little Ice Age" and greenland was white. What culture was putting out so much greenhouse gasses that the climate warmed from 1000-1300A.D? Did the E.P.A. shut them down causing the earth to cool?
Personally i could care less if the scientific community debates Rush Limbaugh, but the way many have tried to eliminate any sort of debate against their beliefs shows a lack of credibility on their part. If someone is right, they don't have to hush everyone that disagrees with them. You'd think such scientists would be debating everyone that disagrees, not silencing them.
Look up that, im too tired, as it gets warmer glaciers move faster and spread out. Also more snow occurs in warmer wetter climate. Come on. thats silly.

If there was something legit, Id be at the front of the Parade, but just disagreeing on this to disagree isn't cool. It hurts people.
I'd prefer to give government less power over most things in life. I guess we disagree here.



We don't actually.


But you'd let someone exploit the government infrastructure WE paid for, Transportation, shipping, security, etc.. Including the land we own, to the Nth degree AND pollute and cause US health problems because ......?....?


I don't think you would.


All the while, as Government has grown larger, more intrusive, and secretive than ever under the "free Market" crowd.

That doesn't add up.

Dont let the "little government" scam allow others to steal what you have paid for.
Saw maybe 2 seconds of the launch. Night launches are awesome if there aren't clouds.


nada
Interactions with Mid-Latitude Flow

Mid-latitude circulations often affect the tropics. These interactions are illustrated by the interaction between a mid-lattitude trough in the upper troposheric westerlies and the ITCZ or NECZ. As a trough approaches from the west and dig deep into the tropics, rising motion ahead of the trough induces a band of cloudiness and bad weather extending from actvity along the ITCZ/NECZ into the mid-latitudes. Other effects include the slackening or break within the tradewind regime as seen by the QuikSCAT pass.

This is seen in the image below. A very broad positively tilted upper trough extends from the northeast Atlantic into the tropics. Upper divergence (associated rising motion) "taps" into moisture assoicated with thunderstorms along the ITCZ/NECZ. This flow produces a continuous band of cloudiness into the mid-latitudes.


(This chart was from Saturday 8 March...Same trough, same concept, but not the exact location).



Visible Image showing a cloud band extending from activity over NE South America into the Subtropical Atlantic over a stratocumulus cloud deck.

Last Night

....SYNOPSIS....

GULF OF MEXICO/NORTHWEST ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 50W....

This afternoon visible imagery showed a vigorous squall moving across Eastern Texas, and into Louisiana and Arkansas. This activity is clearly associated with a surface cold front as indicated by the cloud ropes observed. In addition, surface observations indicated this feature associated with a weak low pressure area in the vicinity of 30N/94W. This feature is being enhanced surface inflow off the Gulf in conjunction with upper divergence between an upper trough over the Central Plains and a broad ridge over the Caribbean. Doppler radar is showing numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms over Southeastern Texas and much of Louisiana. The cold front is also clearly identified on radar imagery. In the meantime, a surface ridge remains over the Gulf of Mexico providing for a weak surface pressure gradient resulting in light winds which is driving 6-7 ft northeast swells mainly over open waters. Widespread low clouds continue to be scattered over the Gulf of Mexico which is caused by remnant moisture found in the tranquil marine layer (little mixing occurring). High level cirrus clouds are seen extending from Southeast Mexico across the Central Gulf Region and into the Atlantic. Water vapor imagery showed these clouds clearly associated with high level moisture advection between the two aforementioned upper level features. Fair weather dominates elsewhere across the Southeastern United States where the surface ridge is in control.

A very well define frontal boundary has stalled out across the Western Atlantic with a band of cloudiness and showers extending from Straits of Florida, across the Northern Bahamas and within 120 nm of 28N/70W 30N/60W 36N/50W. In the meantime, a stable marine layer situated over the Western Atlantic is supporting stable air low clouds across much the region behind the front. As the front struggles westward, the surface ridge ahead is tightening the pressure gradient and maintaining a surge of steady northeasterlies and fair weather from 70W to 50W.

by W456

Visible image taken earlier this afternoon shwowing rope clouds over Southern Texas indicating the presence of a front.



Later, radar imagery showed the front has just move offshore Southern Texas, illustrated by the band of showers and possible t-storms extending from the main area of low pressure over Eastern Texas.

1174. FLBlake
I see many entities exploit the government. I see the government exploit the people of this country. I'm willing to let the oil companies drill in my backyard if it will lessen our dependence on imported oil. To single out these things that drive our economy and most of the the world's economy, and paint them evil, quite frankly is childish. Oil is vital to our national defense, our economy, our infrastructure, and our general well being. You go ahead and beat that drum, pal. Oh, and did I read you correctly, did you say oil company revenues belong to the government? If anyone is laughing here, sir, it's me, at you. I suppose we should take billions from Weyerhaeuser, and Nike, and while we're at it why not from private colleges. Let's nationalize health care, and nationalize our auto industry, and give everything to the government. They do such a good job at everything else.
Oil is vital to our national defense, our economy, our infrastructure, and our general well being.



I don't see how this is relevant. Oil is a finite resource which is going up expodentially in price. If we build a different infrastructure that is dependent on renewable sources of energy, it brings jobs to this country and it supports a sustainable way of living as sources for wind, solar and tidal/coriolis energy are infinite.

It won't be pretty if oil runs out and there's nothing else to fall back on.
1176. P451
1139. lindenii 2:14 AM GMT on March 11, 2008 Hide this comment.
1130. nash28 1:52 AM GMT on March 11, 2008

Bueller???

Did I kill the blog?

**********

No, you didn't kill the blog...you made STL uncomfortable with the truth and shunning you is his method of dealing with opposition to his pet ideas.

Heck Shen would have you censor anyone he has likewise decided to shun by demanding that you not quote those he is shunning in your replies. They even falsely accused me of being another blogger from the past. They knew better, it was simply a way to minimize the truth of my words. I thought I heard the faint thud of goose-stepping in the background...no matter. No apology either.

Ignorance is bliss and those who blindly shun and ban you from their blogs are, obviously, very blissful people. You are quite capable of clear and concise writting...keep up the good fight, in the long run it will be well worth it.


Yeah and it's just plain silly. Tell these few people that we only have about 10 years of reliable global data and you can't make a future prediction based on such and they go nuts.

Heck, Shen told me I was endangering people's lives by posting my ideas or debating some people's ideas on here. He informed me that this blog is a life and death situation during hurricane season and I had to be policed.

I couldn't even find the words to reply to that but then again we're talking about someone who thought a news story about the Weather Underground meant that political leaders of nations read this blog for ideas on how to run their countries. He didn't understand that the Weathermen, aka the Weather Underground was a faction from the 1960s of US Students.

Again I couldn't find the words to reply to that.

Anyways, it's not about a good fight or results this is a blog a place to talk about weather and debate and share ideas.

Those who treat this place as life or death and want to ban all who don't agree with them are close minded individuals who will have a hard time helping the world make scientific advances.

It's okay to be firmly rooted in one's beliefs but if you can't be open to debate then you can't make a difference.


I myself am a hobbyist who likes to shoot the shit about weather and nature which is why I joined this blog.

Maybe that was a mistake seeing how nasty some people become if you choose to debate their ideas. They think their posts are the letter of the law when in fact they too are hobbyists posting their ideas in a public forum. To them their ideas are not open to debate they are truth. They're wrong on both counts.

/boo hoo rant

Don't like it? Don't care.
P451 12:26 PM GMT on March 11, 2008

People work hard to understand things. Its disrespectful for those, in a fit of ignorance, to repeat whatever that were able to take in on the radio by a total hack, while driving, as some type of valid, factual gospel.

So, what "truth" would that be P451?

They're wrong on both counts.

/boo hoo rant

Don't like it? Don't care.


THAT really doesn't cut it and is just disrespectful to be disrespectful. That is what you are saying. You really should be banned.
Oh, and did I read you correctly, did you say oil company revenues belong to the government? If anyone is laughing here, sir, it's me, at you. I suppose we should take billions from Weyerhaeuser, and Nike, and while we're at it why not from private colleges. Let's nationalize health care, and nationalize our auto industry, and give everything to the government. They do such a good job at everything else.

Continuum fallacy, also called fallacy of the beard[citation needed], is a logical fallacy related to the Sorites paradox, or paradox of the heap. The fallacy appears to demonstrate that two states or conditions can not be considered distinct (or do not exist at all) because between them there exists a continuum of states. According to the fallacy, differences in quality cannot result from differences in quantity.

The oil does belong to the people of the US. Its not yours or the Oil companies and doesn't just magically appear as a result of a fallacious "free market". That is exactly what I said.

So I have yet to see this new information/research/deduction that places so much doubt on Global Warming. Now we are talking political/ economic and social theories? You opened your mouths and spam WU blogs, but in reality, there is nothing there.
1161. JFLORIDA 4:13 AM GMT on March 11, 2008

isn't anyone tired of being lead around by the nose by people exploiting your ignorance and fear of complexity?


**************

Yes, we are and that is why we are shineing the light of truth on you and your fellow alarmists.
Ok, I'm ready for a new topic Dr. Masters.

Since we are still here...
"Greenland" was green... um no. The ice cores in greenland go back thousands of years and thousands of feet. It is not the result of the little ice age. Unless you are going back to Gondwana land.
You want to talk southern hemisphere? Lets look at the oceans there. Aren't they warmer too? Aren't we begining to see Tropical storms in the southern Atlantic and looking for a naming convention? Are the Glaciers calving off texas sized pieces because it is colder?
Our oceans and air are connected.
The greenhouse effect doesn't stop in winter. This is shaping up to be an average year around the southeast U.S.and I for one will be happy to see it.
We have RAIN! After years and years of lake lowering drought.
Yes, we are and that is why we are shineing the light of truth on you and your fellow alarmists.

Good then at least provide ONE valid argument. ONE, cant you guys even do that.

Its so courageous of you to stand tall for oil companies and the wealthy. But you may want to take some time out to prefect your arguments.

Sorry storm, thank you, didn't mean to jump in front of a legitimate post.
1184. NEwxguy
Thanks Storm,watching this weekend here in New England closely
1185. Patrap
Im thinking Boca....How bout you dear?

1186. FLBlake
Where is this evidence that global warming is caused by human activity? As far as I can tell, human activity results in around 2% of emissions. Is there some proof otherwise? Where is your proof af anything, other than a few charts that show temperature changes over the past few months? Oh, no, I'm asking questions, better ban me. How dare I.
1187. Patrap
I Suggest one goes here for that debate..Climate Change Blog Link

Or maybe here Link
As far as I can tell, human activity results in around 2% of emissions. Is there some proof otherwise?

PER YEAR!!

I don't understand how this argument is still used? Add up ALL the co2 emissions since the beginning of the industrial revolution. I can guarentee you that you won't get 2%...
Its so courageous of you to stand tall for oil companies and the wealthy. But you may want to take some time out to prefect your arguments.

I just love the stance people take that don't agree with the likes of you and others. Its not a matter of standing tall for oil companies and the wealthy, that's just your slam to make on someone. Why would anyone in their right mind want to do that when they don't receive the benefits? We are all falling victim to oil companies, so that is a rather weak statement/slam to make on some one unless they truely are benefiting.

Kind of hypocritical to talk about banning someone when you want to label people yourself. The arguments are out there, closed mindness is choosing to ignore them though. That can often prevent rational thinking.

Like any other message board on the internet, they have their own cliches, and if your not part of it, you better get out of the way. This applies here to say the least.

i'll go crawl back under the rock where I came from though, it's safer there. lol
Patrap,

LOL

The WU climate pages lnks you back here under the 'climate change blogs' section on the right.
1191. Patrap
No banning here.
Cept during high volume times like a Hurricane threat.
We have the ol filter , or just use the ignore feature.

Its simple.
1192. Patrap
Its a supply and demand market the Oil Business.Never been a crime to make money, last I checked.
Hell, its good for Oil Producing states and those who do the Majority of Refining. Plus it employs Millions of Americans. Or do you think the Magic Oil Fairy just waves the magic Wand and oil turns into unleaded Gas?
Do some research on Oil,Drilling, Production, transporting and refining. Then come back on a bicycle and tell us more.
1193. Patrap
The featured Blogs are a lil overated I feel. And theres not much traffic on a good percentage of them too.
Patrap,

You're telling me...lol

I just put out my hurricane season forecast and waited for wars to break out. Thus far it's been benign.
1195. Michfan
So how about them bears?
1196. beell
Just as a curious item to watch:

Supposed to be a surface low moving up through the OH and TN Valleys this Friday with attendant cold front dragging behind. GFS appears to be showing a surface feature forming at the S end of the front in the N Central Gulf then moving it across FL. Could be a CAT 5 headed for NOLA...

GFS seems to be the only model showing this.

Graphic is from 3/11 06Z GFS Valid 06Z Fri 03/14.

Photobucket
beell,

That's convective feedback. It's a little quirk the GFS model seems to have.
1198. FLBlake
"So how about them Bears"

We'll see. I hold no hope. I'm a Bears fan.


Sully -
Care to present any data?
FLBlake,

Data?? What do you mean?
1200. beell

Thanks sullivan, was just about to post this tutorial.
GFS Convective Feedback
beell,

Wouldn't it be nice if one day someone would commission enough funds for the NWS to create a model as good, or better than, the ECMWF?

The Europeans are very secretive over their little model. If you're in the general public, good luck trying to find data output for that model...
1202. beell
Ain't that the truth-after all we have taught them about weather lol

One useful link here for CONUS-and only 500mb/SLP. Have to scroll down a ways to get to it. Some of the other models presented here are user friendly. Step thru loops, etc.

Link
Well, at least we don't have to rely on the nested grid model anymore...LOL

It's fun to look at the model and laugh at it...
1204. beell
Still would not be surprised to see something at the tail end of this front.

NGM? You must be older than me...j/k
hahaha

Only 26 here. I was trying to make a point...LOL
1206. beell
You made one...53 here. Time for my nap lol.
Have a good rest!
Good then at least provide ONE valid argument. ONE, cant you guys even do that.

The charge of a valid argument falls in the court of those wishing to change the status quo.
1209. pottery
Good day all.
Still experiencing unusual weather here in Trinidad. ( 11n 61w)
The dry season has not yet set in at all, although it would normally do that in Feb.
The persistant jet stream from northern South America toward north Africa seems to have kept the Sahara Dust away as well. Visibility is good, and from where I am at 300 Feet I can see all the way down to the Andes on the Paria Peninsula of Venezuela . For the past couple of years, the visibility has been very low, and the absense of the dust is great.
The BAD NEWS is, that if the dust and the associated dry air from Africa dont materialise this season, then we will probably be looking at a very active Atlantic Hurricane season.

Any comments ?
Things can change over the next several months (don't know when the "peak" of the SAR actually is), but, you are correct; an absence of significant dust layers would allow for better warming of the cyclogenisis region off of West Africa, and, be less of a dry air obstacle for the waves once they start coming off the coast.....However, I'm staying away from any potential cause and effect until we get closer to July and August to see what conditions look like at that time....If the pattern you are suggesting holds, then we can expect a higher percentage of tropical depressions forming as the waves come off the coast but the odds of the complete "crossing" into the tropics intact is another thing...We will see
1212. pottery
Its been fun reading through the last few days entries, and noting the two sides of the G/W, Big Oil, Who Did What disscusions.
What vexes me is the attitude that one side is right, and the other side is talking crap and should be banned or something.
I enjoy the argument but really, there are 2 opposing points of view, and both sides have valid points to make.
It is not good to dis each other in these topics, because there is as yet not enough hard evidence to show one thing or the other conclusivly.
I have very strong views on the subject, but appreciate hearing the other side ( even if you are talking crap ! )heheheh
So keep it coming.......


1213. pottery
Yes Weatherman, I'm waiting to see how things shape up in June as well.
It does seem that the SAL hold a lot of the cards that will detirmine what comes, and it should be an interesting one.
Klotzbach and Grey seem to be calling for only a slightly above average season. Very slight. Looking forward to their report once hurricane season gets closer. I have a feeling that will change, but who knows. Could be more like a 2007 season. I've heard La Nina is weakening. Thoughts? Could there be more hurricanes this season than previously reported?
1215. pottery
I'm back to work. Check you all later..........
1217. FLBlake
Sully-
I was asking if you had any data you could post regarding the total Co2 contributed to humans. And what methods are used to compile such data.
You wrote as if you have some insight on the subject, and I've asked an another message board without any real response.
A notice from email about dropsonde data in TCs some of you might wish to know:

SUBJECT: ENHANCEMENT TO THE TEMPDROP MESSAGE:
EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008

THE TEMPDROP MESSAGE PROVIDES REAL-TIME OBSERVATIONS FROM
DROPWINDSONDES RELEASED IN AND AROUND TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE
CURRENT MESSAGE FORMAT PROVIDES INSUFFICIENT LOCATION PRECISION
FOR CERTAIN DROPWINDSONDES RELEASED IN VERY STRONG WINDS CLOSE TO
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

EFFECTIVE MAY 15 2008 THE FOLLOWING CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE
62626 NATIONALLY-DEVELOPED CODE GROUP IN THE TEMPDROP MESSAGE:

1. ADDITION OF A RELEASE LOCATION/TIME DESIGNATOR...CODED /REL/
2. ADDITION OF A NEW SPLASH LOCATION/TIME DESIGNATOR...CODED /SPG/

NOTE: THE FORMER SPLASH/LOCATION TIME DESIGNATOR...CODED
SPL...WILL BE RETAINED BUT LIKELY NOT BE USED.

AN EXAMPLE OF THE NEW 62626 CODE GROUP FOLLOWS:

62626 REL XXXXNXXXXXW HHMMSS SPG XXXXNXXXXXW HHMMSS

COMPLETE TEMPDROP MESSAGE FORMATS ARE PROVIDED IN THE NHOP. SEE
TABLE G-6. THE NHOP IS PROVIDED ONLINE AT /USE LOWER CASE
LETTERS/:

HTTP://WWW.OFCM.GOV/HOMEPAGE/TEXT/PUBS.HTM

THE 2007 NHOP IS NOW POSTED ON THE INTERNET AND THE 2008 NHOP
WILL BE POSTED BY JUNE 1 2008.
1219. FLBlake
Pottery-
Thank you for recognizing there are two sides to this issue. I don't think anyone is denying global warming is happening. It's the driving force behind the phenomenon that is up for debate. Depending on who you ask of course.

I made one comment on how many parts of the world were experiencing the coldest winter in 50 years. I was then systematically fed the condescending, you don't know anything routine. Supplied with all the formal color charts, bells and whistles that Algore himself would be proud of. Then he'd eat it. I just don't like being muffled, and suppresed by some blog bully who for all anyone knows, could be a complete kook. That's all I have left for this one....... and I'm spent.
I just don't like being muffled, and suppresed by some blog bully who for all anyone knows...

Heh, im surprised you even noticed the facts as you were so busy pointing out the virtues of big oil and how we should be so much more accommodating to their whims. I got nothing else from your posts.

The Facts for the CO2 emissions have been posted here several times and you need to make the effort to read them before you make outrageous and incorrect statements. It is not other peoples purpose to spoon feed you information for fear you will continue to make a fool of yourself.

People spend their LIVES studying this stuff and for others to take advantage of the complexity of the issue and spout off incorrect assumptions, or some political line without even bothering to read up on it is just wrong.

Dr Masters has posted several times on this here.

Its all down there in black and white.
1214. AWeatherLover 1:30 PM EDT on March 11, 2008
Klotzbach and Grey seem to be calling for only a slightly above average season. Very slight. Looking forward to their report once hurricane season gets closer. I have a feeling that will change, but who knows. Could be more like a 2007 season. I've heard La Nina is weakening. Thoughts? Could there be more hurricanes this season than previously reported?

First of grays december forcast is really what you call garbage as its impossible to even get an idea on what the season might look like sooo far away.My best advice is wait till late april or early may to see how the atlantic is behaveing in terms of what patterns and features might be in place.My worry is that the public has fallen asleep when it comes to hurricane preps cause of the 2 mild seasons we have seen for the U.S.unfortunately i think the only thing that will get folks attention once again is a major hurricane strike some were on the U.S. iam truly hopeing for another quite one this season but if you asked me the odds favor atleast one tropical cyclone making landfall this year in the united states now were that will be no one knows thats why hurricane preparation is always very important and should be completed come june1 if you live near a hurricane prone area.

Hurricane prepardness week starts may25!

Remember even a slow seasons have the possibity of haveing huge impacts 1992 is a prime example.Only takes one over your community to do the damage.

www.AdriansWeather.com
1222. NEwxguy
23,thats why I think the east coast is so vulnerable,its been so long since the east coast has been hit,everyone is very complacent.
Especially up here in new england,probably half the people haven't experienced a hurricane,but no one should let their guard down.
Does anyone know where stand in the AMO ossilation and 11 year solar cycle? Have we passed the warming peak in both of them?
1222. NEwxguy 3:53 PM EDT on March 11, 2008
23,thats why I think the east coast is so vulnerable,its been so long since the east coast has been hit,everyone is very complacent.
Especially up here in new england,probably half the people haven't experienced a hurricane,but no one should let their guard down.

Things could get rather active for parts of the eastcoast this season.

Remember this!! I sure do. I miss john big time.

1225. FLBlake
JFL-
It seems you can't get past the fact that I don't believe companies are evil. I don't have time to search thru eons of boring posts about belittling people who challenge your opinions. This is another tactic of narrow minded, angry people.

"I got nothing else from your posts."

The same could easily be said of your predictable one sided point of view. Corporations=Bad
Government Control/Socialism=Good

I never claimed to have a degree. I made a few loose statements, and asked for some info. Isn't that what a blog is typically used for? From what I can tell this is a pretty good place, aside from a couple assholes, and I'll continue to read and post. Some of us weren't born knowing everything, and I'm at least open to listening to other points of view.
1226. NEwxguy
thanks 23,that does bring back some memories
1226. NEwxguy 4:16 PM EDT on March 11, 2008
thanks 23,that does bring back some memories

No problem at all....John was the best of the best in my opinion nobody when into details like him.
How can you tell when 'blog bullys' are losing a discussion?

.....When they question you about your 'credentials' !!

:-)>
1229. pottery
I'm back.
Some good points re; the set-up for the coming season.
Concerning landfalling storms in the CONUS, and especialy the Eastern Seaboard, a lot will depend on the location and strength of the Bermuda high, not so ?
1230. Patrap

NOAA Cmdr. Barry Choy pilots a 1975-vintage
Lockheed WP-3D Orion Lockheed WP-3D Orion during a 2,100-mile data-collecting mission over the Pacific Ocean on Friday.



Riding aboard the Hurricane Hunter


By Jack Broom

Seattle Times staff reporter


Length:116 feet, 10 inches

Wingspan: 99 feet, 8 inches

Engines: Four Allison T56-14 turboprops

Maximum takeoff weight: 135,000 pounds

Useful load: 62,000 pounds

Maximum range: 4,370 miles

Crew size: Typically 7 to 11, depending on mission

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

PORTLAND — Struggling to try on a bulky, orange survival suit which, I'm told, could mean the difference between life and death in an emergency, I'm focusing on the fact that, statistically speaking, this seven-hour flight will be safer than my morning commute down Interstate 5.

But part of my brain insists on raising a few issues:

• The pavement on I-5 never disappears from underneath my tires, dropping 100 feet in a matter of seconds.

• The seats in my car don't have "ditching procedure" signs posted alongside, saying what to do if it ends up belly-down on the surface of the ocean.

• And perhaps most important: No one has ever called my 1999 Toyota a "Hurricane Hunter."

Hurricane Hunter is what they call the 1975-vintage Lockheed WP-3D Orion we've just boarded, and the moniker is no exaggeration: Painted on its fuselage are more than 80 red symbols with names and dates of the hurricanes into which it has flown, from Bonny in 1976 to Felix in 2007.

OK; I respect its credentials. But should we really ride into a storm in an plane built the year after Richard Nixon left office? Shouldn't an airplane that uses propellers be headed somewhere a little safer — say, the Museum of Flight?

"It's an older aircraft, but it does exactly what we need it to do," says Paul Flaherty, a project manager for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which operates two of these "P-3's" and is in the process of acquiring another from the Navy.

It's exceptionally sturdy, says Flaherty. It's dependable. It accommodates a wide range of scientific gear. And in rough weather the turboprop engines make it easier to maneuver.

Despite sending these planes into some of the nastiest weather nature dishes out, like the 216-mph winds of Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, NOAA has never lost a P-3 or a single member of its crew.

"I wouldn't say I enjoy getting beat up in hurricanes, but it's not boring," said NOAA Cmdr. Mark Nelson, 37, co-pilot on our flight.

We seldom see these aircraft in the Northwest. They and their crews are based in Tampa, Fla., where hurricane hunting is routine business.

But for the past few weeks, this plane has been part of NOAA's Winter Storm Reconnaissance Program, making flights over the Pacific from a temporary base in Portland.

Our mission, which occurred Friday, was to get a close look at a band of weather headed toward the West Coast, a system that could generate heavy rains this week as far away as Texas.

To accomplish that, our crew dropped 16 cardboard-covered cylinders at assigned points during the flight. As the tubes fell to earth, transmitters inside sent back readings on temperature, humidity, pressure, wind speed and direction.

The results not only help shape National Weather Service forecasts; they're being used in a new project to study "atmospheric rivers" — bands of low-level moisture with long-term implications for flooding, snowpack and water-resource management.

Donning the survival suits had been a preflight exercise to make sure Times photographer Erika Schultz and I could manage them if necessary. As soon as we got them on, we were allowed to take them off, though they rode the entire flight in a bin near our seats, bright-orange reminders of what could happen.

Just before departure, NOAA Cmdr. Barry Choy, the day's aircraft commander, briefed the entire crew on what-if scenarios and procedures.

Virtually every object on the aircraft is either bolted, strapped or tied down — fire extinguishers, cardboard boxes, coffee urn, binders full of paperwork. That dent on the overhead handrail? We're told it was made by a life raft that wasn't secured when the plane hit a dip.

This is no luxury vehicle. Plain metal cabinets, panels, and even the padding against the inside of the fuselage are all a government-issue shade of yellow-tan, with plenty of nicks and scratches attesting to their use.

Shortly after takeoff, Choy clicked off the "fasten seat belt" light and we could roam around the interior of the 116-foot-long plane, watching the work of each of the nine crew members — pilots, flight engineers, navigator, meteorologists, electronics technicians. About half were NOAA Corps officers, the others were civilians.

Seasoned hurricane hunters such as Steve Wade, 60, a flight engineer, track not the number of flights they've made, but the number of "penetrations" into hurricanes — and he has more than 400 in his 19 years with NOAA. A typical hurricane mission flies through the storm from several angles and at different altitudes.

"You get some serious updrafts and downdrafts. At times you feel weightless and if you weren't strapped in you end up in the overhead. ... It can be pretty unnerving," said Wade.

Nelson told of a particularly harrowing flight last year in which three of the plane's four engines shut down about 500 miles east of Newfoundland.

On that mission, with Nelson as commander, heavy seas and severe updrafts carried enough sea salt up to the plane's 3,000-foot elevation to coat the engine compressor blades, choking the engines.

In seven minutes, the plane dropped more than 2,000 feet, and it was only about 800 feet above the 40-foot seas when it went through a heavy rain shower that rinsed away enough salt to let the engines be restarted.

"For a while I honestly thought we weren't going to make it," he said.

In comparison, our 2,100-mile flight out over the Pacific Ocean was a walk in the park. Only once did turbulence prompt Choy to click on the "fasten seat belt" sign sending everyone back to their seats to ride out a bumpy patch.

At the heart of this mission was the work of Bill Olney, 40, an electronics technician, who prepared, dropped and monitored the 16-inch-long cylinders called "GPS dropwindsondes," or simply "sondes," from a French word for probe.

Worth $750 apiece but weighing less than a pound, each of these cylinders, which come wrapped in silver foil, contains a small circuit board, sensors and a little parachute to stabilize it as it falls.

At assigned points, Olney would unwrap a cylinder and place it in a tube leading out of the belly of the plane. With the flip of a switch, a hatch would open and the low pressure outside would suck the sonde away with a whoosh.

Shortly after each device left the plane, Olney tracked its readings, displayed as colored lines on a screen. Dropped from 21,000 feet, a sonde takes about eight minutes to hit the water, sending back readings every half-second.

We watched the readings from one, which showed winds drop from 71 mph on high to 9 mph at sea level. During that same fall, the temperature rose from 26 degrees below zero Fahrenheit to 50 above.

A blue line on the screen revealed the contents of the clouds below us: The sonde reported a sharp increase in humidity from 15,500 feet down to 9,000 feet.

Operating this aircraft costs between $5,000 and $15,000 an hour, depending on its mission, crew size, equipment used, fuel costs, travel expenses and other variables.

A hurricane flight, which helps plot a storm's likely track, can save some money for local governments, since it's estimated to cost more than $1 million per mile of coastline to prepare for a major storm.

But this is about more than money, said Nelson. "We feel we are absolutely saving lives," he said. "When we allow forecasters to make predictions about where a storm is going to go, how long it's going to last and how strong its winds are, they can get people safely out of its way."
Thanks PATRAP that is a thrilling post.
Love your images too.
1233. Patrap
Thanx, I use "Hurricane" in Google "News" search every few days.

I agree about waiting til closer to hurricane season. I just get the feeling that this could be a more active season than most are expecting. Although la niña is on the downswing they are calling for it to last through at least spring and some even until fall 2008. That doesn't sound good for the peak months of hurricane season. I guess I just think people should be prepared. I also think Klotzbach and Grey get too much publicity for their December forecasts. It is often highly flawed. I think it is better to over estimate than under, knowing how much publicity these forecasts get. I think what will turn out to be under estimated numbers are just calming the public into complacency. But thats just my opinion.
1236. Patrap


Always eyeing the next storm

March 10, 2008, 11:08PM

New director emphasizes need to prepare towns for hurricanes

By ERIC BERGER
Copyright 2008 Houston Chronicle

Bill Read

• Age : 58

• Family: Wife, Donna; son, Jonathan

• Formerly: Meteorologist-in-charge of the Houston/Galveston office of National Weather Service

• Now: Director of the National Hurricane Center

Longtime Houston meteorologist Bill Read's move to Miami to become the new director of the National Hurricane Center hasn't changed his views on hurricane safety one bit. But becoming the nation's most visible forecaster has given him a bigger stage.

From that platform, Read plans to continue delivering a simple message: Local and state planners — not just in Texas, but in all areas vulnerable to hurricanes — need to do more to prepare their communities for storms.

Texas has taken some steps since Hurricane Rita to facilitate evacuations, Read said, but officials haven't done enough to encourage smart development along the coast. That didn't happen in Houston even after Rita, Read said.

"I defy you to find one community that changed their land-use and building codes based upon hurricanes Katrina or Rita," he said. "I'm not a builder, maybe our codes are satisfactory. But that's not what people in that business are telling me. So, we're setting the table for the next big one."

After 16 years of leading the Houston area's National Weather Service forecasting office and seeing his share of floods and strong winds, Read is passionate about protecting coastal communities and speaks his mind. But don't mistake him for his outspoken predecessor, Bill Proenza, who sharply and publicly criticized his bosses and divided his employees.

It was after Proenza's expulsion as director last summer that officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called Read to Miami to be the hurricane center's temporary deputy director.

Being far from his League City home, Read worked extra hours, coming into the office whenever an active storm threatened, to learn more about the craft of the hurricane center's senior forecasters.

He began to win their confidence and, slowly, their trust, no easy task in a workplace where supporters and opponents of Proenza were deeply riven. The extra work helped Read convince his superiors that he was the right choice for the top job, which NOAA announced in January.

"The mood's better now, but there's still a lot of things we need to do," Read said of the Miami office.

A private company with expertise in conflict resolution and organization building has been brought in.

"It takes time," Read said. "It's like any traumatic event in your life."

An early interest

Regardless of the circumstances, Read is thrilled to be in Miami.

By some estimates, 80 percent of all National Weather Service forecasters know before junior high that they want a career in weather. Read said he knew by the fourth grade, when his parents told him to close the front door as he stood in its frame, transfixed by winter storms in Delaware.

Of the 13 U.S. schools that offered undergraduate degrees in meteorology, Texas A&M University was the only one to accept Read unconditionally. He described himself as an average high school student. As he studied weather in college, Read said, he did better academically.

After earning his bachelor's degree, Read enlisted in the Navy and obtained a slot in its weather reconnaissance program. He soon learned that volunteers who flew into winter storms and hurricanes were paid an extra $100 a month.

Read, who at that point in his life had taken a total of five airline flights, found himself guiding P3 airplanes into hurricanes. After the pilots lost radar, Read's job was to keep the plane pointed toward the storm's center, based upon the wind pattern on the ocean.

"Can you imagine seasoned aircrews flying into hurricanes and winter storms, trusting their safety to a fresh graduate who had been on five flights?" he asked. "I didn't think about that until much later, but I probably brought religion to a bunch of people who thanked God that they got back alive."

After a four-year stint in the Navy, Read returned to Texas A&M for graduate school and by 1978 had landed a forecast intern position at the National Weather Service office in San Antonio. He became a staff forecaster and served in Fort Worth and at the National Weather Service headquarters in Silver Spring, Md., before being appointed head of the Houston/Galveston office in 1992.

Late last month, sitting in his League City office filled with little more than packed boxes, Read recalled the turbulent weather he experienced in Houston, including the outbreak of 17 tornadoes just after he moved to the area and the Hurricane Rita evacuation. He's learned to stay calm under fire.

"Anyone who has seen me working on a computer when it freezes up might question whether I'm calm under duress," Read said. "But I can stay calm on the big issues. It's the little ones that drive me insane, like shanking a wedge on the last hole when I've got a chance to shoot a good round."

Earning respect
The quality of remaining calm has helped Read win over local emergency planners.

"The thing about Bill, he's not going to get you worked up unless you need to be," said John Simsen, Galveston County's emergency management coordinator. "He's helped us not overreact. He's helped us draw that fine line between creating hysteria and not warning people sufficiently."

That's important praise for Read, whose main job now, in part, is to work with emergency management coordinators in coastal communities.

Read's experience also should help him succeed, said Lew Fincher, vice president of Hurricane Consulting Inc., a local firm that works with the public and private sectors to prepare for hurricanes.

"He brings to the table his experience in a local forecast office," Fincher said. "Few of the hurricane specialists in Miami have been there before, and they really don't understand what these guys are going through when they're preparing a local forecast."

In another boost for Read, the proposed 2009 federal budget contains more money for hurricane research and new weather satellites. Read said the money is important if scientists are to better understand how storms rapidly intensify. Last season, he and other forecasters were amazed as a cloudy swirl of low pressure intensified into Hurricane Humberto within 30 hours. The system struck the upper Texas coast as a strong Category 1 hurricane.

"It was just another reminder that we don't know how to forecast rapid intensification," he said. "That's going to be a priority of mine.
1237. Patrap
2008 National Hurricane Conference

March 31-April 4 |The Rosen Centre Hotel |Orlando, FL

The nation's forum for education and professional training in hurricane preparedness!
Link

Purpose of the Conference

The primary goal of the National Hurricane Conference is to improve hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation in order to save lives and property in the United States and the tropical islands of the Caribbean and Pacific. In addition, the conference serves as a national forum for federal, state and local officials to exchange ideas and recommend new policies to improve Emergency Management.

To accomplish these goals, the annual conference emphasizes:



* Lessons Learned from Hurricane Strikes.

* State of the art programs worthy of emulation.

* New ideas being tested or considered.

* Information about new or ongoing assistance programs.

* The ABC's of hurricane preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation -- in recognition of the fact that there is a continual turnover of emergency management leadership and staff.
1238. NEwxguy
We can have hurricane preparedness week,publicize the importance of planning ahead,but the nature of humans is to wait until the storm is approaching.
1228. lindenii 8:22 PM GMT on March 11, 2008
How can you tell when 'blog bullys' are losing a discussion?

.....When they question you about your 'credentials' !!


Which is about all someone here has successfully done. I am very reluctant to use the ignore feature as I usually want to hear anything and eveything anyone has to contribute to a subject, but now I have 2 names on my ignore list. He didn't contribute only detract from intelligent discussion.

Does anyone have a good link of teleconnections between the AO and the Atlantic TC season?
I agree about waiting til closer to hurricane season. I just get the feeling that this could be a more active season than most are expecting. Although la niña is on the downswing they are calling for it to last through at least spring and some even until fall 2008. That doesn't sound good for the peak months of hurricane season. I guess I just think people should be prepared.

A strong La Niña, believe it or not, doesn't appear to be too favorable for a hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season, since a few of the bloggers on here (I myself have noticed this as well) have said that it cools the Atlantic (hence the cool MDR this year; reminds me of 1996, which had similar SST anomalies in the MDR). With lower SSTs, there is less energy to fuel tropical cyclones. But if La Niña weakens a little bit (it appears to be doing that right now, but it could just be related to MJO/kelvin wave activity, and it could quickly return to its previous strength; time will tell), then I would worry a bit, since not only will the Atlantic have a chance to warm up even slightly, the steering currents could change a bit (stronger La Niña's tend to cause storms to form further south and track further south and west, like last year and in 1988, which had a similar La Niña), and put the U.S. in danger. I would really worry when we get a neutral year with a cold bias (trending toward La Niña), since that's what typically brings the most dangerous seasons for the U.S.

I also think Klotzbach and Grey get too much publicity for their December forecasts. It is often highly flawed. I think it is better to over estimate than under, knowing how much publicity these forecasts get. I think what will turn out to be under estimated numbers are just calming the public into complacency. But thats just my opinion.

Any forecast that far out for hurricane season can automatically be discarded. I don't even know why they try and make a forecast in December for something that happens in June. And I agree about the public becoming complacent.
1241. Patrap
So many factors have to fall in place to foster a very active season, for the CONUS or the Carribbean,(Bermuda High Position/ SAL/SST's/Shear Values) and the hard part for long-term forcasting is trying to "assume", based on "current" trends, what conditions may look like during the peak of the season...Almost impossible to predict with any certainty, and I certainly agree with the comment below as to 1992 (Andrew) which happened to be the "first" late in the season which caught so many off guard, what conditions will look like, or which of the factors (like excessive shear or dust) may suddenly choke formation in the middle of an active season as we have seen in some recent years (in spite of alarming predictions earlier in the season)........Agree that prepardness and vigilence, every season regardless of the predictions, is the most important "reason for the season" so to speak..........
1950 La Nina year - ACE 243!!
1955 La Nina year - ACE 199!!
1998 La Nina year - ACE 182!!
1999 La Nina year - ACE 177!!
1964 La Nina year - ACE 170!!


These are all hyperactive seasons...

I dunno where this theory started that La Nina doesn't bring hyperactive seasons. Some of the worst seasons have occured during La Nina years
Also, look at La Nina years during positive AMO. The East Coast, especially North Carolina, gets slammed.
Hello all

I just started a blog, about my expectations of this year's SSTs forecast, see here.
sullivanweather: that is what I thought. People have been saying that on this blog, that stronger la niña means a less hyperactive season. However that is not what I learned in any meteorology class I have taken. Of course I know that I don't know much about cyclogenesis, and am open to any data someone can show me regarding this. I wonder what the strength of those la niña years were that you posted? Any info on this would be greatly appreciated.
1247. Levi32
I'm not sure what all this about La Nina is about either....but I think they're all jumping on the colder SSTs that seem to be correlating with the current strong La Nina episode. Also last year La Nina certainly didn't seem to help activity.....but that's one year....look at the big picture and La Nina seasons are still bad on average. Everything about La Nina supports an active season, how it changes the upper air patterns, SSTs, the MJO, everything. I can see a few reasons why a neutral ENSO with a cold bias could be possibly worse than a full-blown La Nina, but on the whole La Nina always equates to a large threat to the eastern seaboard especially.
Well, I'm off for the day (from the Blog) and enjoyed the conversation today.......As to those SST's (Stormdude), we'll have to see what happens down the pike.......That magic "80F" for tropical formation has been pretty consistent over the years and (post Katrina)we have been spared another potential tragedy for the Gulf region given the very hot SST's there during the peak of the season the last two seasons....Let us not forget the loss of life outside the CONUS the last two seasons when some of the strongest storms [like Dean] were steered into the Yucatan and never entered the bathwater in the Gulf.......Have a great day all...........
ONI values for the years posted...

1950
-1.7
-1.5
-1.4
-1.4
-1.3
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0


1955
-1.0
-0.9
-0.9
-1.0
-1.1
-1.0
-1.0
-1.0
-1.4
-1.8
-2.0
-1.7
1998
2.3
2.0
1.4
1.1
0.4
-0.1
-0.7
-1.0
-1.1
-1.2
-1.4
-1.5

1999
-1.5
-1.2
-0.9
-0.8
-0.8
-0.8
-0.9
-1.0
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.7

1964
0.9
0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.8
-1.0
-1.1
-1.1
-1.0

First of grays december forcast is really what you call garbage as its impossible to even get an idea on what the season might look like sooo far away.My best advice is wait till late april or early may to see how the atlantic is behaveing in terms of what patterns and features might be in place.My worry is that the public has fallen asleep when it comes to hurricane preps cause of the 2 mild seasons we have seen for the U.S.unfortunately i think the only thing that will get folks attention once again is a major hurricane strike some were on the U.S. iam truly hopeing for another quite one this season but if you asked me the odds favor atleast one tropical cyclone making landfall this year in the united states now were that will be no one knows thats why hurricane preparation is always very important and should be completed come june1 if you live near a hurricane prone area.

Hurricane prepardness week starts may25!

Remember even a slow seasons have the possibity of haveing huge impacts 1992 is a prime example.Only takes one over your community to do the damage.

www.AdriansWeather.com
Hey Adrian. Forgot to tell you, but I posted my hurricane forecast yesterday. It's up in my blog right now in case you're interested.
Don't know why my earlier post didn't go up, but, as to the SST issue (another variable very hard to predict out several months in advance) the CONUS has been lucky (Post-Katrina) that some of our larger, and deadly, storms like Dean did not get into the Gulf where the temps have been like the proverbial bathwater the last two seasons.......However, that magic "80F" threshold seems to hold water (no pun intended) every year and anything above that temp is always dangerous if a storm traverses over such warm water.......I'm out for the day but enjoyed the conversations today and everyone have a Great Day....
so I'm just a little bit curious... Are we saying that la niña is less hyperactive in terms of the CONUS getting hit, or also that it is less active in general?