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Louisiana Floods Overtop Levee, Inundating 15,000 Homes; 98L May Develop

By: Jeff Masters 3:48 PM GMT on August 16, 2016

The highest flood crest ever observed on Louisiana’s Amite River has overtopped the Laurel Ridge Levee in Ascension Parish, about 20 miles southeast of the capital of Baton Rouge, resulting in the flooding of at least 15,000 homes—one third of the parish’s homes, reported the Baton Rouge Advocate on Tuesday morning. The river was not forecast to fall below its previous record height (set in 1983) until Wednesday. At least nine people have died in flooding in Louisiana that began last Friday, with at least 20,000 people rescued from flooded homes and vehicles; 10,000 people are in shelters due to the disaster. The federal government has declared the event a major disaster in four parishes: Tangipahoa, St. Helena, East Baton Rouge and Livingston. The governor of Louisiana, John Bel Edwards, said on CNN that he expects nearly half of all of the state’s parishes—30 out of 64—to be declared disaster areas. Update: Some 40,000 homes in all have now been affected by the Louisiana flooding, according to a Tuesday morning press conference from Governor Edwards.


Figure 1. This aerial image shows flooded areas on and near the campus of Louisiana State University (LSU), Saturday, Aug. 13, 2016, in Baton Rouge, La. (Patrick Dennis/The Advocate via AP)


Figure 2. The Amite River at Port Vincent, Louisiana crested at least 2.8 feet above its previous record level on Monday. The river was forecast to fall below its previous record height (set in 1983) by Wednesday. Image credit: NWS/AHPS.

A tropical depression-like storm with massive amounts of moisture
Multi-day rainfall amounts of 20” to 30”, produced by a slow-moving low pressure center similar to a tropical depression, hit a swath of south-central and southeast Louisiana from Friday through Sunday. Some parts of Louisiana recorded more than 20" of rain in 48 hours, which qualifies as a 1-in-1,000 year rainfall event (having a 0.1 percent chance of occurring at a particular location in any given year), according to the NWS Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center. The highest rainfall total from the storm was 31.39” in Watson, Louisiana. The storm system carried near-record amounts of atmospheric moisture, drawn from the Gulf of Mexico and northwest Atlantic, where sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were at near-record levels. SSTs over the northern Gulf of Mexico have since cooled, due to the week-long period of cloud cover and strong winds from the storm.


Figure 3. MODIS visible satellite image of 98L, located about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, taken on Tuesday morning, August 16, 2016. The brownish colors to the northeast of the disturbance are due to a large region of African dust. Image credit: NASA.

African tropical wave 98L may develop later this week
A strong tropical wave located about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands on Tuesday morning was headed west-northwest at 15 mph, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this week. This disturbance was designated Invest 98L on Sunday evening by NHC. Satellite loops on Tuesday morning showed 98L had a modest area of heavy thunderstorms which had acquired a respectable amount of spin. Wind shear was light to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were warm enough for development—28°C (83°F), which was about 1°C (1.8°F) above average. Water vapor satellite imagery showed that 98L was in a moist environment on its southern flank, but dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) was along the northern side of the disturbance, interfering with development. These conditions are marginal for development.

Forecast for 98L
Steering currents favor a west-northwesterly to northwesterly motion at about 10 - 15 mph for 98L on Tuesday, slowing to 5 - 10 mph during the remainder of the week. This track will likely take the system too far to the north for it to be a long-range threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands, though we can’t rule out a threat to Bermuda yet. The 8 am EDT Tuesday run of the SHIPS model showed moderately favorable conditions for development through Friday, with wind shear in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, a moist atmosphere, and SSTs near 27 - 28°C (81 - 83°F.) Working against development of 98L will be the dry air of the SAL to its north, plus large scale sinking air over the tropical Atlantic imparted by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days. The active portion of the MJO is currently located in the Western Pacific, which leads to increased typhoon activity in the Northwest Pacific, but compensating sinking air and surface high pressure over the tropical Atlantic, with reduced chances of tropical cyclone development there.

The Tuesday morning operational runs of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the European, GFS and UKMET models, had two of the three--the European and GFS--showing development of 98L into a tropical storm late this week. In their 8 am EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70% and 80%, respectively. 98L appears to be struggling with dry air today, and I think these development odds should be reduced to 50% and 70%, respectively. Should 98L become a tropical storm, the next name on the Atlantic list is Fiona.

More African waves coming
A series of tropical waves will emerge from the coast of Africa during the next week, and we will have to watch these for development as they track westwards to west-northwestwards across the tropical Atlantic. The models have been inconsistent in their handling of the track and potential development of these waves over the past few days; the Tuesday morning runs of the GFS and European models showed that the only new tropical wave that might develop in the coming week is one due to come off of Africa on Saturday.


Figure 4. In this Sunday, Aug. 14, 2016 photo, people wait for members of the Louisiana Army National Guard to rescue them from the side of the road near Walker, La., after heavy rains inundated the region. (AP Photo/Max Becherer) 

Louisiana disaster survivors with disabilities need your support after historic flooding
The Portlight.org disaster relief charity, founded and staffed by members of the wunderground community, is responding to this week's devastating floods in Louisiana. The disaster is particularly troublesome for a state that is still in recovery from major flooding just last March, and many resources are completely depleted because of the March flooding. That storm left more than 5,000 homes damaged or destroyed and cost $1.5 billion across a three-state area. This past week's floods have affected at least three times as many homes, and insurance broker Aon Benfield anticipates that the floods may end up being even more costly than the March disaster. There is an urgent need for durable and consumable medical supplies as well as housing. Portlight will be working with the American Red Cross, local stakeholder organizations, and federal partners to respond to this historic flooding event. Your support is needed to make this happen! Please consider making a donation to Portlight's disaster relief fund at the portlight.org website to further their reach and response in the state of Louisiana. Thank you for any support you can offer!

Why have so many people been unaware of this huge disaster? Marshall Shepard has a great essay in Forbes, 5 Reasons Some Were Unaware Of One Of The Biggest Weather Disasters Since Sandy.

Bob Henson will have a post this afternoon on the Great Arctic Cyclone (2016 version) that is currently churning through the Arctic.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters! TD/TS Fiona is certainly on its way based on current trends.
If you have water eh masse,bottled or canned to donate, contact me here,the portlight entry or wu mail.

Thanks
Thanks Dr. Masters. My dad already sent the RC a check, got tired of not hearing about it on the local news. Mostly about Milwaukee and Lochte's hold up on Sunday, didn't get around to leading with it until yesterday.

Quoting 821. GTstormChaserCaleb:

GFS 500 mb. absolute vorticity, which is close to 6 kilometers or 19,685 feet in the troposphere. Shows positive values for both 98L and the tropical wave expected to emerge off the coast of Africa and into the Atlantic in 4 days.

Definition of absolute vorticity from the American Meteorological Society (AMS):

The vorticity of a fluid particle determined with respect to an absolute coordinate system.

The absolute vorticity vector is defined by 2Ω + ∇ × u, where Ω is the earth's angular velocity vector and u is the three-dimensional relative velocity vector.

The vertical component η of the absolute vorticity vector (as defined above) given by the sum of the vertical component of the vorticity with respect to the earth (the relative vorticity) ζ and the vorticity of the earth (equal to the Coriolis parameter) f:








I like to see these definitions pop up on the blog. I actually get them lol. I enjoyed vorticity and circulation in fluids dynamics.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters..
Thanx Doc for the update. Sad situation down here in the south. Fiona looks to be coming soon. Hope this steers away from Louisiana witch it should.
Here comes the spin of the Saturday Wave.
Quoting 5. bayoubug:

Thanx Doc for the update. Sad situation down here in the south. Fiona looks to be coming soon. Hope this steers away from Louisiana witch it should.
Going way out to sea.
11n
31w

imo
This has been updated, and it appears now the second wave is Pouch 21L still, and now we have Pouch 22L.

Another wicked day. Humidity is supposed to be decent today, normal is 94/65, Airport was 108 yesterday. Indian Hills was 102.9, I was 100.8
Dust doing some work.
What an amazing set of circumstances to set up such a deluge. 15,000 homes...incredible.
It might not a been a stinkin' hurricane, but it stinks nevertheless.
Portlight to the rescue again.
Time to cough up a little dough.
Even 5 bucks is better than nothing.
Portlight is the real-deal. All the money goes to victims.



"We're lookin' for a light ahead
In the distance a candle burns
Salvation
Keeps the hungry children fed"

EJ
Due to the elongated warmth we've seen, it's only natural that you see more of these guys.



I wish I had a pic of the little rattlesnake I saw a couple years ago. Didn't have my phone and when I returned with it he/she was gone :( Pretty though, blue, grey, and peach-colored.
Good evening, and thanks for the new blog, though with more bad news from poor Louisiana!

At present, Chanthu is hitting Japan with strong rains:


Source for updates.



Meanwhile we've got absolutely gorgeous weather in Germany. So I see you later, folks.
Thank You Dr. Masters; the fact of the matter is that while we have been discussing 98L this morning on the blog, and exited at the prospect of tracking storms this season, Louisiana has already been devastated, including several dead, from this current tragedy................................Just as bad as a slow moving land falling tropical storm and worse in many respects.

Also, (respectfully.......:))please correct the spelling of LA in your title.
Interesting that the models aren't real consistent on the longer term forecasting - usually this time of year the CV storms are predicted well in advance. I wonder if this is due to MJO phase...


(4277)

Incident period: August 11, 2016
Major Disaster Declaration declared on August 14, 2016

If you or somone you know needs shelter in Louisiana, please visit Redcross.org for locations.

Designated Parishes: East Baton Rouge, Livingston, St. Helena, and Tangipahoa. Damage assessments are continuing for other parishes.

Please visit disasterassistance.gov to apply for assistance.


www.disasterassistance.gov

Enter your full address to see if your area has been declared for Individual Assistance:

Example Address: 123 Main Street, Washington, DC 55555

Note: Your address and personal data will not be stored.
98L is now encountering dry air and that should reduce the chances of it developing in the near future. it is quite possible with a reduce speed of 5 to 10 mph that 98L could well miss the weakness in the ridge and continue west.
Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. Masters; the fact of the matter is that while we have been discussing 98L this morning on the blog, and exited at the prospect of tracking storms this season, Louisiana has already been devastated, including several dead, from this current tropical tragedy.

Also, please correct the spelling of LA in your title.


Maybe he's trying to emphasize how "Lousy" it is there at the moment!
A Huge shout out to Wisconsin who just donated ......155,600 12oz units of water.

Semper Fi'

👍


Quoting 12. Climate175:




Why is there purple in the gulf?????
patrap, can you post the link again for mudding out of homes? also, I understand that bleach is becoming difficult to obtain in baton rouge if you are aware of a good location nearby baton rouge please let me know so I can forward the info. thanks. donations of fuel gift cards, restaurant gift cards, non perishable food, square head shovels/scoops, tank type sprayers, 5 gallon buckets, mops, and bottled water are being accepted at 1st church of the Nazarene in baton rouge.
Quoting 24. SELAliveforthetropic:



Why is there purple in the gulf?????
There is some favorable environment in that part of the Gulf in which something could take advantage of.
Quoting 18. ConchConvert:

Interesting that the models aren't real consistent on the longer term forecasting - usually this time of year the CV storms are predicted well in advance. I wonder if this is due to MJO phase...


It took a while for the models to get a hold of 96L and 97L. Due to the fact that both waves were active at the same time the models couldn't figure out which wave would develop.
GFS was completely wrong and developed 96L into a hurricane and turned it north into the Central Atlantic.
97L ended up being the wave that developed and it took a southerly route all the way to Mexico.
Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Dr. Masters; the fact of the matter is that while we have been discussing 98L this morning on the blog, and exited at the prospect of tracking storms this season, Louisiana has already been devastated, including several dead, from this current tropical tragedy................................Just as bad as a land falling tropical storm and worse in many respects.

Also, (respectfully.......:))please correct the spelling of LA in your title.


Thanks! The title has been corrected. The title does not go through our spell-checker, unfortunately.

If any of you ever see typos, please email Bob or myself so we can correct these:

jmasters@wunderground.com
bob.henson@weather.com

Dr. M.
Once again the GFS develops Fiona into a minimal hurricane. Very different from the ECMWF.
Quoting 24. SELAliveforthetropic:



Why is there purple in the gulf?????


Because there is a small chance of tropical development in that area in the next 24-48 hours.
Quoting 23. Patrap:

A Huge shout out to Wisconsin who just donated ......155,600 12oz units of water.

Semper Fi'

👍





Awright Wisconsin!

I take back everything bad I said about ya.

Only kidding. I've always thought of them as my right hand.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h
Strong vertical wind shear predicted to persist across Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean for next 10 days.
Quoting 23. Patrap:

A Huge shout out to Wisconsin who just donated ......155,600 12oz units of water.

Semper Fi'

👍




Jeez. That's 40,000 litres of water. Which is equivalent to 5714 of one of these:
Things just keep getting worse and worse for those affected in Louisiana. Terrible tragedy to say the least. Thoughts and prayers to the victims and their families.
You can see an eye. Also the Saturday Wave seems to be gaining moisture as it heads in a generally westward to NW direction.
Holy cow! 968 mbar on the GFS!
And lets pray and hope that the Northern Gulf coast, including LA, does not see a land falling storm or hurricane this season; given those already saturated soils, and current recovery efforts, this would amount to pouring gasoline on the current situation......................Shields Up for the Gulf.
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h
Strong vertical wind shear predicted to persist across Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean for next 10 days.
oh well he has been right all along.Can't argue with the best.

Tropical Storm Pavlof almost affecting Alaska.
Quoting 36. HurricaneFan:

Holy cow! 958 mbar on the GFS!
Quoting 33. NunoLava1998:


Only 2,460,000 more litres to fill up an olympic size swimming pool.
Quoting 32. washingtonian115:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 1h
Strong vertical wind shear predicted to persist across Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean for next 10 days.


The wave coming off Africa on Saturday will not make it to the Caribbean until after 10 days assuming it does not re-curve.
Quoting 41. mikatnight:


It's only 40 thousand litres, which is still a lot. Assuming the water thickness is the one of a quarter of a normal 7L bottle, that is water enough to go from surface to 12 km above surface.
Quoting 25. nfloridandr:

patrap, can you post the link again for mudding out of homes? also, I understand that bleach is becoming difficult to obtain in baton rouge if you are aware of a good location nearby baton rouge please let me know so I can forward the info. thanks. donations of fuel gift cards, restaurant gift cards, non perishable food, square head shovels/scoops, tank type sprayers, 5 gallon buckets, mops, and bottled water are being accepted at 1st church of the Nazarene in baton rouge.


Flooded house? Here's what to do first


1 / 24
Rescue officials and civilians alike work to pull people from their flooded homes along the flooded Tangipahoa River near Amite, Independence, Tickfaw and Robert, Louisiana Saturday, August 13, 2016. (Photo by Ted Jackson, Nola.com | The Times-Picayune)
Ted Jackson, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Susan Langenhennig, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune By Susan Langenhennig, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune
Email the author | Follow on Twitter
on August 13, 2016 at 6:10 PM, updated August 15, 2016 at 3:57 PM
Stay connected to NOLA.com ×




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Unfortunately south Louisiana has all too much experience cleaning up after a flood.

More than 10,000 people are waking up in shelters Monday morning (Aug. 15) after historic flooding during the past few days in Louisiana. The federal government has declared four parishes -- Tangipahoa, St. Helena, East Baton Rouge and Livingston -- to be major disaster areas.

The days ahead won't be easy for flooded homeowners. To help, here are some articles on mold remediation and other tips for cleaning out flooded homes. They were written in the wake of Hurricane Katrina by then Times-Picayune home and garden editors Renee Peck and Karen Taylor Gist and other writers.

Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
Mold, mildew, damage repair: LSU's LaHouse offers resources for flood victims
The LSU AgCenter's website offers guides for flood recovery, mold and mildew cleanup, carpet and floor restoration, moisture problems and housing repair.

TAKE PHOTOS

Disaster response officials say it's important to document the damage before you begin your cleanup and repairs. It's best to have a date and time stamp on the photos, if possible, and document the damage in every room and inside closets and cabinets. The photos should be given to your insurance adjuster and, if necessary, the Federal Emergency Management Agency.

CLEAN-UP

Do a form of triage: Decide what can be saved and what can't. If in doubt, throw it out.

Strip the house of all furnishings impacted by flood waters. Cover salvageable items with plastic and leave outdoors to dry.

ADVERTISING

inRead invented by Teads

If the carpet got very wet, it has to go, since carpets harbor mold. Saturated carpet is heavy, so remove in 6-foot sections, roll them up with the pad and take it to the dump or put it out with the trash. (High quality oriental or wool rugs may be able to be saved; try not to fold it and get it to a cleaner as soon as possible.)

Throw away anything porous that got wet: bedding, books and papers, upholstered furniture, kitchen utensils.

Remove linens and clothing to a dry place; they may be able to be laundered and restored. Non-porous dishes can be cleaned after the water is declared safe to drink and the sewer lines are clear.

If your refrigerator wasn't underwater, and you think you can salvage it, unplug it and throw everything inside it away. Take out all removable parts. If there is one, empty the defrost water disposal pan. Wash all parts thoroughly with hot water and rinse with disinfectant made from 1 teaspoon chlorine bleach to each gallon of water. With a solution of hot water and baking soda (or 1 cup vinegar or household ammonia to 1 gallon of warm water) wash the interior, including doors and gaskets. Leave the door open for the appliance to ventilate it. WARNING: Do not mix ammonia and bleach as it can release poisonous gas.

If you have mud: Shovel out as much as you can, being careful to wear protective clothing such as rubber boots and gloves. Then, if you have running water, hose down the floors, washing mud out the doors. Don't allow the water to sit on the floor for long; use a wet vac or squeegee mop to remove it promptly.

Any food including canned food that has been touched by flood water must be considered contaminated and discarded.

Remove limbs, debris and trash.

Start the interior drying-out process. There are several ways to do this, some of which will have to wait until it's safe to turn on the electricity:

Open up closet and cabinet doors. As cabinets dry, you should be able to remove swollen drawers.

Use fans to move the air. Do not use central air conditioning until ducts have been inspected and cleaned. If ducts run through the slab or were flooded they may contain debris and bacteria, which will just be blown into your home.

Run dehumidifiers and window air conditioning units.

Use desiccants (materials that absorb moisture) in closets or other enclosed areas. These include chemical dehumidifying packets used to dry out boats, cat litter made of clay, or calcium chloride pellets used to melt ice in the winter. Hang the pellets in a pillow case in the closet and place a pan beneath to catch dripping water.

Start removing waterlogged surface materials. Wallboard acts like a sponge; even several inches of water can be soaked upward in what is called a wicking effect. Wallboard will have to go. Plaster survives a flood better than wallboard, but takes a very long time to dry. If plaster separates from the wall laths (studs) as it dries, it will have to be replaced. Wood swells and distorts with moisture intake, but generally regains its shape as it dries.

Even if walls and ceilings look undamaged, open them at various places to check for mold and mildew. If you see either, drywall must come out.

Remove, bag and throw away all insulation in the walls. This will have to be replaced.

Clean all non-porous surfaces with a disinfectant. Ceramic tile is nonporous, so it can be cleaned as usual, although the grout, which is porous, may require special effort. Nonporous materials such as Corian countertops or stainless steel also can be cleaned.

Vacuum floors if possible with a vacuum that has a HEPA filter. Do not use your regular vacuum unless you can cover the exhaust with a filter or direct the exhaust outside; you may simply blow bacteria around your house.

MOLD REMOVAL

The rule of thumb is that anything that stays wet for 48 hours has potential mold growth. And anything porous - sheetrock, ceiling tiles, insulation - will host mold. So if you had any standing water for more than two days, you should remove all porous materials.

Always wear protective clothing when dealing with mold; respirators, preferably made of neoprene, are recommended.

The Terrebonne Readiness and Assistance Commission recommends that you use the following mixture to clean all moldy surfaces to keep mold from spreading as you remove porous surfaces: In a garden pump sprayer, mix 3/4-gallon bleach and 1/4-gallon TSP (trisodium phosphate, a common ingredient used in pressure-washing, available in paint and hardware stores) with 1-1/2 gallons water. Spray infested surface so that it is wet to the touch. The kill time is 10 minutes MINIMUM. Scrub infected area if necessary. Allow drying to the touch. Repeat procedure. Others recommend a mixture of one part chlorine bleach to nine parts water, but the chlorine smell will linger. Acceptable as well are phenolic or alcohol-based germicides available at janitorial supply stores.

Remove and discard all porous materials (that is, anything that will absorb water): wallboard, ceiling tiles, insulation, carpet, etc.

Remove Sheetrock in the following manner: Make a horizontal cut parallel to the floor at least 3 feet above the level of flood water contamination; if the water was 1 foot high in the house, go up to 4 feet of sheetrock and cut it out. If flood waters were 4 feet or above, the entire wall needs to be removed.

Disinfect studs and other exposed structural wood with a good germicide and then seal them with a fungicidal encapsulant, such as Kilz. Be prepared to remove flooring, since most ceramic tile is installed on top of drywall or greenboard. Spaces between floors and subfloors can harbor mold and bacteria.

Allow exposed walls to dry thoroughly before starting restoration. This will take at least a week or more. Moisture meters can test for wood moisture.

While wood frame homes will survive flooding, those fully impacted by flood waters may not be good candidates for repair. On a square-foot basis, new construction is cheaper than remodeling.

SOURCES: The Red Cross; Federal Emergency Management Agency; interviews with contractors, structural engineers, industrial hygienists, insurance adjusters, residents who have previously mitigated after hurricanes and floods. Click here for the Red Cross and FEMA publication, "Repairing Your Flooded Home."
Quoting 38. help4u:

oh well he has been right all along.Can't argue with the best.


So what? Does not mean a hurricane can't develop or pass through that area. :)
Fun time was really really short....

GFS has nothing good for me :(((
patrap, thanks
12z GFS seems to make 98L a Hurricane and make the wave that will come off on Saturday a Hurricane down the road too.
98=scenario=felix1995
Wave that will emerge West Africa on Saturday is now Pouch 22L.



Pouch 22L
Nice to see the GFS recurving the storms OTS, reminds me of 2010 when it started with Danielle recurving in the Central Atlantic and Earl recurving just offshore of the East Coast of the U.S. At least it looks like we'll have some storms to track that will hopefully stay harmlessly OTS.
45. Patrap:

Oh man!
That's just what to do first?
If "What to do second" is anything other than "win the lottery and give Donald Trump an atomic wedgie", then I'd have to say that list is going to be at the top of my list of "Anything I'd Rather Be Doing Than This".
Thank God there's people out there like you...
Sea Surface Temperatures are favorable for development all the way towards 40N latitude to 70w longitude.
Quoting 54. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Nice to see the GFS recurving the storms OTS, reminds me of 2010 when it started with Danielle recurving in the Central Atlantic and Earl recurving just offshore of the East Coast of the U.S. At least it looks like we'll have some storms to track that will hopefully stay harmlessly OTS.
Wants another storm to kickoff September, but you know the deal with the GFS, especially with all the questions surrounding what will happen next.
Quoting ... kallenjrtx:

While everyone is debating what 98L is gonna do or not do....my attention is on the heavy rain moving in the Houston area right now....it's pouring buckets at my house and backyard has some standing water in it. Have had about 5" inches of rain in last 3 days and could get 2/4 today....pretty large "blob" moving into area. Hope folks in Louisiana are drying out and be able to begin clean up, prayers go out to families who lost loved ones in the flood there.


Indeed, heartfelt prayers and sympathies to All those who have lost Loved Ones. May the Grace, and Peace of Christ Comfort You all in these difficult times of tragedy and Loss. In time may You find an abundance of the Lord's sweet Joy, courage and strength to move on in hope and face whatever the future holds with confidence and unshakable faith.

May God continue to Richly Bless us All this Season!
One story from Dehnam Springs.

Imagine your business,a utility,boat,jet ski,4 wheeler off road vehicle repair shop..flooded for three days.

The individual vehicles are now scattered flooded out in now muddy grass..all 65 Vehicles of his clients.

Let that one person be known

There are thousands just like him.

Relive Louisiana.

Please.
98L looks good developing on a nice rate not seeing any movement wnw yet still due west
98L is beginning to consolidate this afternoon, and convective organization is increasing. It still has some coalescing to do, but it should be classifiable tomorrow.

Quoting 23. Patrap:

A Huge shout out to Wisconsin who just donated ......155,600 12oz units of water.

Semper Fi'

👍



love that giving spirit! :)
If the models are right and this system tracks thru fairly good conditions,it may get a good chunck of ACE units that the North Atlantic needs as is below normal to this date. (10.915 units so far) And if wave (Pouch 22L) that emerges on Saturday does the same,even more ACE will be added.We shall see.
AIRBNB users offer free homes to flood victims.

Their website feature is highlighted on their home page.

Thru Sept 4th.


A Huge shout out to them.

Semper Fi'

👍
So much dry air north and northwest of 98L having an inhibiting effect right now, we will see if it can create a moisture field to fight it off soon.

New Entity at 13%.
lol i just have a " guten tag" salute on my profile thingy and i dont speak german XD
Quoting 47. CaribBoy:

Fun time was really really short....

GFS has nothing good for me :(((


Be patient.
Quoting 66. Climate175:


nice to see that Louisiana is clearing some from that satellite point of view.they dont need more rain for quite awhile
There is more support from the ensembles this run of the next wave.

Stop it.

Now.

A bit better organized:

Quoting 72. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is more support from the ensembles this run of the next wave.



Yep, much in line with the ECMWF. Looks like Cape Verde may be dealing with a direct hit with Gaston in less than a week if these runs are true...
Now for the Euro to have its take on 98L and the the Saturday Wave soon.
TWO upped 98L high/high 80/90%
TD 6 by tomorrow
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave centered about 600 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is beginning to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear to be favorable for additional
development, and a tropical depression could form on Wednesday.
This system is expected to move toward the west-northwest and then
northwest over the open waters of the central Atlantic during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Avila
Quoting 65. Patrap:

AIRBNB users offer free homes to flood victims.

Their website feature is highlighted on their home page.

Thru Sept 4th.


A Huge shout out to them.

Semper Fi'

%uD83D%uDC4D

The outpooring of people willing to help has been amazing - but then again, that is what us Cajuns do when disaster strikes. While our home was spared, we have numerous friends and family who were not so lucky. And we're still getting info on those who could still be affected. This was unbelievable to watch unfold, and it's still like living in a bad dream. From gutting of homes, to watching the mounds of carpet pile up on streets, along with furniture and piles of trash bags. Thanks God most of the Parishes affected have been included for Federal assistance, but still a few more need to be approved. All we can hope is that this area is spared from a TS or heck, even a TD at this point. I just don't think the ground can hold any more water.
Quoting 73. Patrap:

Stop it.

Now.




How are you doing Patrap? Has the flooding affected you?

80/90 2pm update on 98L. Getting close.
Lord,

Louisiana governor: 40K homes damaged by historic flooding
Aug 16, 2016 12:06 PM
By MICHAEL KUNZELMAN, MELINDA DESLATTE and REBECCA SANTANA
Associated Press



BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) - At least 40,000 homes were damaged and eight people killed in the historic Louisiana floods, the governor said Tuesday, giving a stark assessment of the widespread disaster.

Gov. John Bel Edwards spoke at a news conference alongside FEMA administrator Craig Fugate, saying "well over" 20,000 people have been rescued since the flooding began Friday. His office later increased the figure to more than 30,000 rescues.

Beginning Friday, a torrent of about 2 feet of rain inthe southern part of the state over a 48-hour period, and days later many homes and businesses were still underwater.

While some areas were entering recovery mode, the governor warned new places downstream could see flooding and that officials are still in search and rescue mode.

"I don't know we have a good handle on the number of people who are missing," the governor said.

Some residents returned to their flood-damaged homes for the first time Tuesday and found a soggy mess.

David Key used a small boat to get to his house in Prairieville and said it had taken on 5 inches of "muddy nasty bayou water." There were fish and thousands of spiders. And mold has started to set in.

"I'm not going to lie, I cried uncontrollably," he said. "But you have to push forward and make it through. Like everybody says, you still have your family."

The extent of damage was coming into clearer view. About 40,000 people had signed up for FEMA assistance and eight more parishes were added to the federal disaster declaration, bringing the total number to 12.

In Livingston Parish, one of the hardest-hit areas with about 138,000 people, an official estimated that 75 percent of the homes were a "total loss."

But Lori Steele, spokeswoman for the Livingston Parish Sheriff's Office, was upbeat, saying the rescues taking place now are less of a "life-saving nature" and more to help people who were running low on supplies in flooded areas. As the main roads drain, emergency crews were going to be able get hot meals, water and medical supplies to the 25 shelters in the parish.

"We're tired but today's a good day," she said.

Rivers and creeks were still dangerously bloated in areas south of Baton Rouge as people filled sandbags there to protect their houses, bracing for the worst as the water worked its way south. In Ascension Parish, officials said some small towns have already been inundated.

The governor said more than 8,000 people were in shelters, but the number was constantly fluctuating as people arrive and leave.

The slow-moving, low-pressure system that dumped more than 20 inches of rain on some parts of Louisiana was crawling into Texas, but the National Weather Service warned the danger of new flooding remained high due to the sheer volume of water flowing toward the Gulf of Mexico.

In and around Baton Rouge, many were anxious to check on damage. But a police officer at one Baton Rouge area roadblock warned Jack Miller that the 60-year-old was risking arrest if he tried to drive a boat on a trailer down a stretch of the highway down to just two lanes.

"I'm trying to get back to my home and rescue my cat," Miller said.

The eighth storm-related death was the accidental drowning of a 66-year-old man whose body was found in the Sherwood Forest area, which has been a site of severe flooding, state officials said.

Karla and Johnathon McDaniel waded through chest-deep water to revisit their home they fled late Saturday night but the water was too deep to get inside.

On their way out, the McDaniels stopped to gawk at a monster truck revving its engine in a failed attempt to free a National Guard vehicle mired in a muddy ditch. It was a welcome moment of levity after days of worry around the state's southeast, which saw thousands of water rescues.

Julee Doiron, 56, and a friend walked down the road to a flooded storage facility where she has a valuable record collection. She felt fortunate the flooding stopped a block short of her home, but she owns a couple of water-damaged rental properties that aren't covered by flood insurance.

"None of these places are in a flood zone," she said. "Why buy it if you don't need it? My agent didn't recommend it to me."

In a state more accustomed to hurricanes, forecasters said the rains were nearly off the charts in intensity. Meteorologist Ken Graham of the National Weather Service's office in Slidell, near New Orleans, said forecasters had alerted people days ahead of the rain. Yet the forecasts Thursday were for 8 inches of rain, with higher totals expected in some areas.

One town, Zachary, received more than 2 feet of rain in a 48-hour period that ended Saturday morning. Another, Livingston, got nearly 22 inches over the same stretch. Rivers in the region reached historic highs - occasionally shattering old records dating to 1983 floods.

Santana reported from New Orleans. Kevin McGill and Bill Fuller in New Orleans contributed to this report.

Copyright 2016 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
@help4u ... to answer you from last thread ... i was basing that solely on climatology ... this is the time of year conditions USUALLY become more favorable .... cold pool or not ... its still more favorable than nov thru june
Quoting 81. Dakster:



How are you doing Patrap? Has the flooding affected you?




No...as I'm near the causeway bridge on the s shore...west of the 17th Street canal
Quoting 82. WeatherkidJoe2323:

80/90 2pm update on 98L. Getting close.
Can't wait till it is officially a TD or TS Fiona.
Good spin, organization will continue as long as it fights off the dry air

Quoting 86. Climate175:

Can't wait till it is officially a TD or TS Fiona.


Same here, glad we have something to track and it is a plus that it will likely not affect anyone either . 6th storm is on the way and a few weeks ahead of the average schedule too.
Quoting 89. WeatherkidJoe2323:



Same here, glad we have something to track and it is a plus is that it will not affect anyone either. 6th storm is on the way and a few weeks ahead of schedule too.
Yep, to me, still look on tap to end the month with at least 2 storms.
98L is fighting off the dry air, dry air does not appear to be an issue at this time as convection is organizing quickly.
Anywhere west of 60w longitude the ocean supports a category four hurricane or stronger.
I've been waiting for a few years now to track a beautiful long track cape Verde hurricane and the latest GFS looks like eye candy.
Dehnam Springs yesterday.

Quoting 57. Climate175:

Wants another storm to kickoff September, but you know the deal with the GFS, especially with all the questions surrounding what will happen next.


Watch the GFS drop it like a Virgin Mobile call.

But I don't think Gaston is too far away.
Good lord no...

It be a blowing and a pouring here BaD like.

98L, just another fish storm in a series of many to come over the next 3-weeks or so. The ridge might build in around mid. September and then the SE US might see a threat. Until then it's "tight lines and good fishing everyone".
Quoting 103. Climate175:



Not really doing much with 98L on this run, but that "Saturday Wave" looks to be nearly a tropical cyclone by the time it exits the coast...the GFS ensembles were also hinting at some development there...maybe that is Gaston...
Quoting 103. Climate175:




Euro seems to be a little further west with 98...Look how vigorous the low is off Africa.
Another Wave is coming off Africa most likely by tomorrow. would not be surprised if there is a yellow crayon.
Quoting 102. HurriHistory:

98L, just another fish storm in a series of many to come over the next 3-weeks or so. The ridge might build in around mid. September and then the SE US might see a threat. Until then it's "tight lines and good fishing everyone".


Sitting here in Bermuda I would have to disagree with your reference to 98L.
Quoting 106. bigwes6844:

Another Wave is coming off Africa most likely by tomorrow. would not be surprised if there is a yellow crayon.


Yep, from now until early October, the message "Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days" isn't seen very often in the Atlantic, except in dead seasons.
ECMWF has the "Saturday wave" making a direct hit over Cape Verde as a moderate TS. Quickly kills off 98L though.
Euro now takes 98L more farther west, but weaker. The plot thickens.
Quoting 112. stormwatcherCI:


Tighter and tighter.
Oh, man! What else do Louisiana residents need?

Woeful news this p.m.

Afternoon all.


The GFS has Gaston and Hermine forming after Fiona, with Gaston becoming a hurricane. The GFS also brings Fiona to near hurricane strength while moving offshore of Bermuda.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Euro putting the remnants of 98L in a dangerous area
The rain with no name has crippled Louisiana.


Quoting 101. Patrap:

Good lord no...

It be a blowing and a pouring here BaD like.


This low LOOOVES LA .... :o( It's been raining there for a week or more now ....
122. JRRP7
Good bye 98L
Quoting 68. Climate175:

New Entity at 13%.


Another fish trash.
Quoting 72. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is more support from the ensembles this run of the next wave.




Any chance of seeing that a little more to the south :)
Quoting 102. HurriHistory:

98L, just another fish storm in a series of many to come over the next 3-weeks or so. The ridge might build in around mid. September and then the SE US might see a threat. Until then it's "tight lines and good fishing everyone".


Where is the ridge when we need it...

If all waves become fishes, then no rain in sight for a loong looooong time :(
Quoting 109. GTstormChaserCaleb:




I really hate how the EURO has adjusted past 24/48hours...
.
The NY Times Public Editor posted an article this afternoon that is rightly critical of the Time's news room for being slow to cover this disaster. The rain fall amounts and flooding should not have been a surprise. I read an accurate prediction of the potential of the storm on this blog 4 or 5 days before it started. I appreciate the early prediction and the updates on the storm as it progressed and its impact. Great job.
NHC upped 98L to 90/90% and advisories will likely be issued either later tonight or tomorrow morning