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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Lots of disturbances, but not much threat

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:12 PM GMT on August 30, 2007

You can tell it's getting near peak hurricane season, since we are tracking four separate areas of disturbed weather that NHC has labeled as "Invests." None of these disturbances are a major concern at present, but we will need to watch them closely.

Not much has changed from yesterday with 94L, the tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. The wave has slowed down its forward speed to 10-15 mph, so should be entering the islands on Saturday, bringing gusty winds and heavy rain. QuikSCAT data from last night showed that the storm became less organized yesterday, with a weak, elongated circulation. Top winds were 20 knots (23 mph). Visible satellite loops show a limited amount of disorganized thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is still a favorable 5-10 knots over 94L, and may decrease some by Saturday, allowing a better chance for development. It looks like 94L will stay well south of the shearing winds of the upper-level low spinning north of Puerto Rico.

The presence of a large, dusty area of dry air surrounding its north side continues to cause major problems for 94L. Once again today, this dry air is being sucked into 94L's thunderstorms. This dry air is creating strong downdrafts visible as arc-shaped surface cumulus clouds along the ocean surface. The presence of these arc-shaped surface clouds is usually a good sign that a storm is struggling with dry air and will not intensify significantly for at least the next 12 hours.

Water vapor satellite loops of the region show that 94L has not significantly moistened its environment. As the storm continues further west, it may be able to gradually do so, allowing it more of a chance to get organized. None of the reliable computer models forecast that 94L will develop into a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Friday afternoon.


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image showing the various disturbed area of weather in the Atlantic today.

95L and 96L
An area of low pressure ("95L") about 400 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida has an elongated, closed circulation, but very little heavy thunderstorm activity. A separate low ("96L") is about 400 miles east of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and has a well defined closed circulation with plenty of heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT data from 6:08am EDT this morning shows this circulation nicely. Top winds seen by QuikSCAT were 30 knots (35 mph). Wind shear over both disturbances was 10-20 knots, and some development of both systems is possible today. It appears now that the North Carolina disturbance, 96L, is becoming the dominant system, which will make 95L's development slow, since the two systems are so close together. We can pretty much throw out the model predictions for these disturbances, since none of the models properly initialized two low pressure systems in this region. 96L (the North Carolina low) has developed some upper level outflow and low-level spiral bands, and this storm may become a tropical depression today or tomorrow. It should get caught up in the jet stream and whisked out to sea to the northeast, and at present does not appear to be a threat to any land areas except the Canadian Maritime provinces.

It is possible 96L will grow into a strong tropical storm who's outflow will choke off and kill 95L. If 95L survives, it may have a chance to develop into a tropical depression once 96L vamooses. It is less clear what the track of 95L might be, since it is further south where steering currents are weak. I expect 95L may wander erratically for a few days.

There is a Hurricane Hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon to investigate 96L. No missions are scheduled for Friday into this system.

Mexico is watching 97L
An area of low pressure ("97L") is bringing heavy rains to the same part of the Mexican coast inundated by Hurricane Dean. 97L has only about 12 more hours over water before it moves ashore, but may become organized enough to become a tropical depression before doing so.

Coast of Africa
None of the computer models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression during the coming week off the coast of Africa. There is a large surge of moisture with tropical waves embedded in it coming off the coast of Africa this week, so we will need to continue to monitor this area for development.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks Dr. Masters
tanks dr.m for the update
looks like we could have a TD later today
Thanks Dr. Masters.
so folks dont miss it..

Weather Radios Recalled by Oregon Scientific Due to Failure to Receive National Weather Service Alerts

Looks like the bark is worse than the bite.

Thanks for the update.
grrr the link didnt post

Link
Thanks Doc.........Its a crap shoot........pick ur storm....... Its funny...There are so many areas that the troublemakers on here wont be able to concentrate on any one storm........They cant keep up...........lol
to be 98L has began to increase in convection over the SW side could have another invest later today
Wow! The Doctor thinks there's a possiblity of two tropical depressions forming within the next 48 hours!
Thank you as always
13. IKE
Posted By: TerraNova at 9:23 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
Wow! The Doctor thinks there's a possiblity of two tropical depressions forming within the next 48 hours!


The good news is, their no threat to the US.
Yep as ive been stateing fun to watch but no worries.Adrian
Posted By: sullivanweather at 1:25 PM GMT on August 29, 2007.

95L is going to have to lose some of the shear that it's under right now.

I would also caution that 95L isn't the only low pressure along this old front. There's another non-tropical area of low pressure about 350 miles to it's northeast which could be more of a threat.

The front that extends from the upper Great Lakes down into the Texas panhandle isn't supossed to move off the coast completely until Friday evening, so these systems have about 60 hours or so to get their act together.


------------------

Just wanted to add that again since the blog just changed.

It seems funny to me that Dr.Masters says there's 'not much threat' in his blog title.

Albeit a weak tropical storm is really not that much of a big deal, but the fact that it's close enough and happening at the start of a long holiday weekend (Friday is a big get-away here in the Northeast during Labor Day weekend), I would at least say there's some threat.

Anyway, I have a brief synopsis on 96L and it's potential impact on the Northeast in my blog if anyone cares to take a look.
Bonedog - Thanks
I posted about Oregon Scientific Weather Radio Recalls yesterday, not realizing that the page I linked was to an outdated similar story - the same company but a different model WR122 - back in 2000. Not a good track record for them is it?
dr masters

how can you say theres not much threat?

94l could develop into dean part 2

and 96l could develop into a better debby!

oh and dr ty for the tips!
HIExpress I did notice that then lost the page so I just reposted. I am shooting the Doc an email to see if he could add it to the main blog page so it doesnt get buried. 60,000 customers affected might warant a little front page coverage.
Posted By: hurricanehamster at 10:28 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

dr masters

how can you say theres not much threat?

94l could develop into dean part 2

and 96l could develop into a better debby!

oh and dr ty for the tips!

Threat meaning for the united states.
wow i woke up today and we have t-storms and rain the roads are wet not raining right now but wow
94L is not Dean II. It isn't even a TD.

94L continues to track 2 degrees south (latitude) of the Dean track.
i sed could!

theres a diffrence between is and could
oh taz u fineally woke up then!
Is the hurricane center's website broke? Or are the met's really having a hard time keeping up with all of this?
ty for insulting me
where would fictional 98L be?
BrandonC I said earlier that the reason they haven't updated the NHC site is the fact that when all 4 popped up this morning the met on duty spit his coffee all over the computer :)
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 30 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 13.0N 58.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 01/0930Z
D. 13.5N 62.0W
E. 01/1030Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12 HRLY FIXES
STARTING AT 02/0600Z.

POTD
wow no TCPOD for 95 or 96L. Thats odd.


fictional 98L will be the CV wave with the embedded low attached.
96L:

gy9go9
There is alot of dry air around 94L.
LOL bonedog I did see that earlier and thought it was funny enough to include it in a reference I posted when I saw the QScat of 96L before the Dr. posted it. By the way hurricane hamster I wasn't insulting you as much as I was pointing out that there is no reason to go about saying Dean 2 when there is nothing even classified as a tropical depression yet much less a cat 5 hurricane. Sorry for callin you a troll though :P
None of these areas look as if they will be of any bother to the US other than the shipping lanes........
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301442
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

Well, it is safe to say the tropics are awake and open for business.

One of these will surely pop. Question is, which one?
Am I looking at this correctly, is 96L appearing much larger than any of the other invests out there. Also I am assuming from the Dr's blog that a wave is coming off of Africa as a TD which would make it much more of a threat several days from now. Sorry for the ??, just trying to understand these charts.
franklin must have been the one to spit it.

read the line in the first paragraph..

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 301442
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
I knew that 94 was moving the factors together in its favor. Last night, the convection was strong on the eastern sides. Also, like in 2005, the models were discounting the moist air on the southern side because they were looking at only the dry northern side. Furthermore, the wave is entering climatic conditions close to warm sea temps off NE South America. In addition, the outflow boundaries are unhindered by shear and while dry add instability for storm generation and you can see a very nice circular pattern compared to a more elongated one previously.
New Tropical weather outlook is out!! Hurricane center points out 5 different storms but only 3 really to watch. The low east of Florida is dead according to them, the low near mexican coast is also nothing to worry about since it's moving onshore. The closed low east of NC coast will be moving NE as early as today. They did point out that 94L could develop into tropical depression as ealy as today or tomorrow. Sorry for the synopsis but interesting stuff.
ok so we can scratch off the 95l than as referring to the TWO.
thats what i thought bonedog
Exceptional shear setting up for Atlantic coastal corridor. No wind event there for sure.
and now I feel dumb for giving the synopsis when 2 people have posted it . . .
it happens Brandon. while your typing a whole page can go by when this place is rocking
Posted By: WeatherfanPR at 3:15 AM GMT on August 30, 2007.

I think 94L it's still alive and it's gonna give us a big surprise!!!just wait and see!!!


I still believe this!!!
Eeny, meeny, miny, mo,
Catch an invest by the swirl:
If he pulls, let him go,
Eeny, meeny, miny, mo.
This may be a silly question but could any of these disturbances effect the Yucatan Peninsula (Cancun) within the next 9 days? Not sure how long these things take to travel from the Winward Islands to the Cancun area. Any opinions would be greatly appreciated!
Posted By: Tropix3 at 2:56 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

This may be a silly question but could any of these disturbances effect the Yucatan Peninsula (Cancun) within the next 9 days? Not sure how long these things take to travel from the Winward Islands to the Cancun area. Any opinions would be greatly appreciated!


one is affecting it right now does that count
Five areas of interest, and of them, one's a fish, one is dead, one is about to move inland, the one everyone was in love with (CV/97L) may be a non-starter and the oldest and at times weakest of the bunch (94L) is the only one the NHC says could become a depression. Go figure.

Meanwhile in the E-Pac, Tropical Storm Gil is living up to his Simpsons namesake. Looks like he's about to fail his evaluation from Senor Ding Dong.
im just gonna sit back and wait and see kinda of thing. football season is back and just in time for a busy active season so if it gets boring again than ill watch my football games.
Tropix3, 94L is the disturbance to watch in the next few days and the only threat to Yucatan down the road.
57. IKE
Posted By: nsbweatherman at 9:48 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
ok so we can scratch off the 95l than as referring to the TWO.


Yep...scratch off 95L....
I thought 94L would survive, which is why I said Friday it may be a TD.
I know there's a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, not sure it's going to effect Cancun at all. I'm more concerned about 94L as I leave for Cancun this Saturday for 7 days.
Here is a large MCIDAS visible of 94L with invest location...

gggg
NHC on the wave of africa...

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH
hey 23 do you think 94L is coming to visit us
Even if 94L finds a way to survive, arent the steering condition still showing it headed for Mexico.....
The forward speed of 94L now at 10kt is helping it. TD by tomorrow morning looking more possible every slide.
Posted By: Miamiweather at 11:06 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

hey 23 do you think 94L is coming to visit us.

Whats up?

Right now i would say no but were now at the peak of the season and anything is possible.The wave behind it if it developes could make things interesting.Overall get out and enjoy the holiday weekend.Adrian
96L's circulation appears to be elongated NNW to SSE along the occlusion that it's trying to break off from.

The fact that a frontal feature still hangs back towards the northwest of this system should tend to keep it moving north, closer to the area of lowest pressures in its vicinity.

The high to it's east also has a small ridge axis that extends to the NNW up to around 40N. That should also effictively block 96L from moving too far eastwards until it gets north of 40N.

By then increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal boundary should accelerate this storm to the northeast, but it should get close enough to the coast to give some winds and rain to Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, and the Cape and perhaps downeast Maine. But Canada could see a landfall along the southeast coast of Nova Scotia. This storm probably wont get much stronger than a 50kt tropical storm before it encounters cooler waters and increasing shear. But for the next 24 hours development into a tropical cyclone appears likely in my opinion.
Sounds good another quick question the HH are going to go visit 94L today
I'm not giving up on 94L either, rather watching with more interest here in E Central Fl. It's slowing forward speed suggests to me (steering wind & spaghetti graphics notwithstanding)to watch for a departure from that WEST Northwest "Dean" track.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 301442
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
LIMITED...THE WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED
THIS MORNING. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES GENERALLY
WESTWARD. INTERESTS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 350 MILES EAST OF
CAPE HATTERAS. THIS SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LOW WILL HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION BEFORE BECOMING OVERTAKEN BY THE
FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED THIS MORNING WITH THE WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO LATER TODAY BEFORE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. NEVERTHELESS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MAINLAND MEXICO OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISORGANIZED NON-TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE GEORGIA COAST HAS
DIMINISHED...AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/PASCH

71. 786
Whatever happened to the wave that just exited CV???

94L is hurting; although it is entering warm waters which will quench its thirst

doesn't look like anything exiting will be happening for the next 24hours
Its a Wave-Wave.
Miamiweather As you can see the models take this mess to the south of our area for now.

Click on Early-cycle track guidance-Frame 3 to view.

Yes the will likely fly out of the islands.

. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 13.0N 58.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 01/0930Z
D. 13.5N 62.0W
E. 01/1030Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12 HRLY FIXES
STARTING AT 02/0600Z.

I dont think they will find anything there of great significance but the islands should watch it but not need to get very worried as of now.

Thank you 23
Posted By: Miamiweather at 11:18 AM EDT on August 30, 2007.

Thank you 23

I fixed the model link so you can view them.
I think that we could see a weak tropical storm moving south of Puerto Rico by Saturday or Sunday.
None of these systems pose a significant threat to the united states and to be honest i feel great being able to say that on this date.Hopefully dean was all 2007 had to offer.Adrian
Weatherfan,

If 94L has any thoughts of developing it'll have to do so before reaching the islands.

The 'Dead Zone' lurks right in its path.
Posted By: sullivanweather at 3:24 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

Weatherfan,

If 94L has any thoughts of developing it'll have to do so before reaching the islands.

The 'Dead Zone' lurks right in its path.



I think it could develop, even in that "Dead Zone".
Sheesh! Houston, I think we need another floater.
so do I they need to take one of the Pacific ones
I don't think Puerto Rico will notice the passing of 94L at all. Its track so far is holding 2 degrees South of Dean's track. That is about 100 - 120 further south than Dean. If that relationship holds 94L will pass 300 miles or more South of Puerto Rico.

Dean magnitude grew from Cat 1 to Cat 4 while it was passing south of Puerto Rico. Winds at Roosevelt Roads when from 20 Kts to 40 Kts. 94L has 10 degrees of Longitude to get its act together before reaching the islands hence is running out of time and water.

I don't think 94L will develop anywhere as fast and as large as Dean so impact to the Northern Islands should be a great deal less.
Things could very be well be much different right now and we could have something like this in the gulf or something like this approaching florida so my overall thinking is this is great news the fact that we dont a have a major baring down on the U.S.

The fact that we are in an active period does not mean every season will be super active in between we could have seasons with less activity.Also remember numbers dont matter as its the ones that make landfall that have the greatest impact. Adrian
85. 786
Nope 94L is not gonna be much, prob. a tropical storm at most.
It sure does not sound like Dean was all that the 2007 season has to offer, considering that we are just entering the peak of the season and there is lots of activity. I think it is way to soon to become too optimistic. We don't need a catastrophe; we need RAIN!!
96/95 are basically frontal lows still. 96 will develop into a nor'eastern, not a cane. maybe it will get sub-tropical storm designation.
Weatherfan don;t bother for some reason you can't post images from that website.
We need rain bad again here in Florida as well. Got a good soaking then not much this month. Lake O is still 4 feet below normal. Not good considering the dry season starts in November.
Also we should use the shear map from UniSys; the CIMSS maps have been accidentaly replaced by a WV image.

Shear is currently low around 96L and 94L. 95L and 97L are in higher pockets of shear but it is still in tolerable levels.

djdtju
Hi all.

A newbie question:

Dr.Masters talk many times about steering currents. What is the difference's from the Jet stream ?
Or, what are the layers when we talk about "steering currents" ?

For example, in this site "Steering Layers" from http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu , about what layer Dr.Masters talk ?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html
(700-850,500-850,400-850,300-850, 250-700,200-700 )

Thank you for any help and sorry for my bad english.
Walfa

The steering layer page is correct. Look at the MSLP designation to find the proper layer. For example, 94L has a pressure of 1010 so you would look at the 700-850 steering layer which steers disturbances between 1000-1010mb and so on down the line.
Has the water temp returned to normal since Dean. I believe they said it droped around 3 degrees. Noting it would take a few weeks or more to return back to previous temp. Which leads me to ask when will the water temps start to drop over all. Mid-Oct?
Wind scans from QuickSCAT for 97L in the BOC:

gkcguk

QuickSCAT also scanned 96L:

gkcguk
Is recon still going out today? If so, when do they leave?
98. IKE
I think 94L is on it's way to forming...into a TD...may take until tomorrow.
94L should be a TD by Friday. It is starting to finally hold its own and is moving closer to the anticyclone, which should help to ventilate the system.

100. IKE
Latest 12Z GFS has 94L close by Jamaica in 96 hours.
I is wierd to me how Dr. M. says that 94L is less organized than yesterday and the NHC says this it has become more organized since yesterday.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 291415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 29 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z TO 31/1100Z AUGUST 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-097

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 30/1500Z
D. 29.0N 76.5W
E. 30/1730Z TO 30/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 31/0200Z
D. 28.0N 76.0W
E. 31/0500Z TO 31/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12 HRLY FIXES IF
SYTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS REMAINS A THREAT.
POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST NEAR 13N 58W AT 31/1800Z.

94L looks much better this afternoon compared to anytime yesterday.
107. IKE
Here's what Dr. Masters said....

"QuikSCAT data from last night showed that the storm became less organized yesterday, with a weak, elongated circulation."....

He did say it was fighting the elements this morning...but, that was a couple of hours ago when he posted the blog...appears to be better organized now.
The fact that 94L has slowed down significantly is what scares me about this system as this could allow it to moisten the surrounding area as well as avoid the shear from the ULL. I still think that in spite of the models that this has a real chance to intensify. It also appears that the Sal to its West is diminishing. Only time will tell but it has put up a good fight thus far in very adverse conditions.
Skyepony - that means they leave pretty soon, no?
12z GFS is out through 126 hours. It forecasts a surface low coming off Africa with plenty of convection.
111. 786
If it does become anything how close will it come to Grand Cayman do you think???

And what happened to the CV wave?
The Doc says,"We can pretty much throw out the model predictions for these disturbances, since none of the models properly initialized two low pressure systems in this region." While none of the Doc's "reliable" initialized two low pressure systems, that unreliable CMC did do so. CMC shows 96l moving rapidly up to the Canadian Maritimes leaving 95l room to develop into a pretty respectable fish storm. The latest GFDL run appears to agree with the CMC solution.

None of the models are now predicting 94l to do anything which is rather interesting since it currently looks to have the best shot.
Agreed. 94L is beginning to consolodate convection around the COC and I believe this will be the one to make it.

Ok, off to sweat my rear end off mowing the backyard:-(
Are there any recent pictures available on 94L. Is it still heading due west or WNW?

115. CapnK
Does anyone know of a list which shows NOAA/NWS forecast/watch/warning zones that are in the following format:

scz034

?

I'm trying to find the specific zone for my location, and much Googling is not coming up with any definitive results. If we had a warning/watch today, I'd parse it from that, but thankfully, no such luck.

TIA!
Check out the NHC SAT link and choose either IR or Visible. It is still moving WWD, albeit slower than before.



000
NOUS42 KNHC 301430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 30 AUGUST 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUGUST TO 01/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-098

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 31/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 31/1530Z
D. 13.0N 58.0W
E. 31/1700Z TO 31/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 01/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 02FFA CYCLONE
C. 01/0930Z
D. 13.5N 62.0W
E. 01/1030Z TO 01/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE 12 HRLY FIXES
STARTING AT 02/0600Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF
So far this year the systems have struggled to develope, excluding Dean. Maybe in September the tropics will pick up at a normal pace but there have been lots of systems that haven't been able to fully develope.
September will most likely be our active month. With the late onset of La Nina conditions, it would not surprise me at all to see four named systems during September.
September is also climatology wise our peak active month.
The actual center is most likely ahead of those clouds a hundred miles or so. ninety four. Look at the outflow clouds.
I'm getting a headache from all these invests, worse then eating a whole gallon of ice cream lol.
123. LLJ
RECON is flying the West Atlantic slop today. Reports should begin around 1:30 or so this afternoon.
Tasking is still a go for tomorrow regarding 94L approaching the Lesser Antilles.
786, it is still way too early to speculate on that as it will depend on the rate at which it develops ( if it does at all)and what the steering patterns are at the time of development. Must say though that I have 50 years living here and ANYTHING South and East bears watching.
Nash28. From the colour infrared loop of 94L it looks like it heading a little north of west. Barbados at 13.1N might stand sticky if it were to develop substantially. The slowing down to 12-13mph is worrying.
126. IKE
Posted By: leftovers at 11:27 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
The actual center is most likely ahead of those clouds a hundred miles or so. ninety four. Look at the outflow clouds.


According to the Navy site...the center is at 11.3N, 51.3W...right where the convection is spinning.
127. IKE
Posted By: Barbados at 11:29 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
Nash28. From the colour infrared loop of 94L it looks like it heading a little north of west. Barbados at 13.1N might stand sticky if it were to develop substantially. The slowing down to 12-13mph is worrying.


It's headed close to where you live. The first flight is set for 13N, 58W...that's close to Barbados.
128. 786
Thanks Caymanite, it does look like it has potential, but seems really weak... don't quite understand steering patterns, care to explain??
Hi Barbados,almost wish I was in your location as it is unlikely that it will develop significantly before reaching there. You should continue to monitor it however as anything is possible.
I like 94L as the best one to devolope. I think in 12 hours I think 95, 96 and 97 will no longer be with us and 98L going up.
Points for "vamooses," Dr. M.! :~)


How ironic that the "F-word" storm might turn out to be a non-lander.

Thanks LLJ.
I'm just counting our lucky stars for now..at least up in the FL panhandle if we can get thru the next 4 wks i'll breathe easier..we had opal 10/4 but thats pretty much unusual..start the countdown-i hate the summer
hosweather~ I was thinking the same thing. The CMC saw the 2 centers for several runs.
94L has been moving west but in the last few frames it has a wnw component.
136. IKE
Posted By: fldude99 at 11:39 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
I'm just counting our lucky stars for now..at least up in the FL panhandle if we can get thru the next 4 wks i'll breathe easier..we had opal 10/4 but thats pretty much unusual..start the countdown-i hate the summer


I hate the heat and humidity here in the Florida panhandle. Seems to last forever. Looks like we have a rainy weekend ahead according to the GFS.
786, basically the more intense the storm the higher up the clouds are and hence it is affected by the higher steering currents.I am sure that someone here can give you a link to a site with more detailed answer. If not I will find 1 for you.
What would happen if there were 11 invests at once in the atlantic.... i know it is extremely highly improbably, but given the numbering is 90-99, what would the 11th be called?
hows the cv wave evere one and how is 94L and 96L doing???
Nevermind, I looked at the RGB, and plumes are clearing visible.
141. IKE
According to the 12Z GFS...a trough/cold front will move into the SE USA the end of next week and weekend. Hopefully 94L will be out of the way by then.
142. 786
Thanx Caymanite. Taz I've been asking about that CV wave for awhile, looks like it could develop very well
WeatherfanPR at 4:41 PM GMT on August 30, 2007.

94L has been moving west but in the last few frames it has a wnw component

i agree and with now 96l out there it might put a hole in the high and when 94l develops it could be going wnw then nw thats the one we have to watch and see if the models pick up on this and have 94l soon to be td more north
144. MTJax
IKE, the front looks like it will cause more trouble than help. There are some interesting changes in the model runs and some of the differences. We might have a string of LOW areas in the GOM and WSTRN ATL.
145. MTJax

ENERGY OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND GULF STATES...
06Z/12Z NAM SOLNS ARE FARTHER WEST THAN THE 00Z RUN W/ THE VORT
SITTING OVER THE SERN STATES EARLY SAT...WHICH LIKELY ALLOWS IT TO
COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS. AS SUCH...THE
NEWER NAM RUNS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY FASTER/FARTHER WEST W/ THE
WEAK SFC LOW FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR OR ALONG THE NERN AND CTRL
GULF COAST FRI INTO SAT. BY DAY 3...THE 06Z/12Z NAM RUNS ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE/MORE NORTHEAST W/ THIS FEATURE AS IT EXITS
THE CAROLINA COAST. NAM RUNS REVEAL A SHEAR AXIS RUNNING FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN VORT INTO EAST TX SAT...ALONG WHICH A SECOND VORT
APPEARS STRONGER IN 06Z/12Z NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST.

KIMBERLAIN

MODEL BIASES AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
146. MTJax
The images have not caught up with the models yet, but this SFC for Sunday shows some of this

DAY 4 SFC PROG
147. IKE
Posted By: MTJax at 11:53 AM CDT on August 30, 2007.
IKE, the front looks like it will cause more trouble than help. There are some interesting changes in the model runs and some of the differences. We might have a string of LOW areas in the GOM and WSTRN ATL.


Yeah.

The GFS has been on to this for a few days.
Dang, I thought I already did this...

Dr M has a new blog up
149. IKE
Thanks SJ...I wish WU had a way to notify us of a new blog. All I do is refresh the page.
Is anyone else having a problem refreshing this site without being kicked out with an error message.