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Los Conchas Fire New Mexico's largest fire in recorded history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on July 01, 2011

The largest fire in New Mexico history is now the dangerous Los Conchas wildfire, which continues to threaten Los Alamos, New Mexico. The fire had consumed 94,000 acres (147 square miles) as of Thursday night, matching the 2003 Dry Lakes Fire in Gila National Forest in Southern New Mexico as the largest fire in state history. The Los Conchas fire was fanned yesterday by winds that reached sustained speeds of up to 25 mph, gusting to 34 mph, along with temperatures in the low 80s and humidities as low as 15%. The fire was 3% contained as of Thursday night. Today, winds will be lighter, 10 - 15 mph, and according to the NOAA Storm Prediction Center, these will not be critical fire conditions. Critical fire conditions are not expected in the Southwest U.S. through July 8, which should allow firefighters to gain control of the Los Conchas fire over the weekend. Conditions in the area are so dry that flames reached 500 feet into the air yesterday, and the fire burned downed trees that were scorched in the huge Cerro Grande fire in 2000.

The 4.7 million acres that have burned in the U.S. so far this year is more than double the 10-year average of 2.3 million acres, according to the Interagency Fire Center. Both Arizona and New Mexico have seen their largest fires in recorded history, and Texas has seen the most acreage burned in recorded history. The Christian Science Monitor today quoted Grant Meyer, a geologist at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque who studies the interaction of climate and weathering processes, as saying: "these big, severe fires are not unprecedented" in hot, dry intervals the region has experienced during the past 10,000 years. "But recent experience down here suggests that what we're looking at in the last few decades is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we've seen since the last Ice Age." A build-up of fuels from forestry practices that emphasized fire suppression is partly responsible, he said, "but part of it as well--and the data are very good on this --it's climatic warming", as human industrial activity and land-use changes have pumped increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A long-term average decline in annual snow pack, which provides the bulk of the region's water, along with rising average temperatures have lengthened the fire season and dried out the fuel.


Figure 1. Summertime temperatures in New Mexico have increased by about 1°F over the past 100 years. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 2. Change in the average date of onset of the spring snow melt runoff pulse between 1950 - 1999. Reddish-brown circles indicate significant trends towards onsets more than 20 days earlier., Lighter circles indicate less advance of the onset. In a few locations, onset is later (blue circles.) The earlier snow melt in large portions of the West has led to a much longer fire season in recent decades. Image credit: Changes in Streamflow Timing in the Western United States in Recent Decades, USGS, 2005 (as reproduced by the USGCRP.)

Warmest and driest month on record for portions of Texas
June 2011 was the warmest and driest month of all-time in Midland, Texas, since records began in 1931. The average temperature was 88°F, beating the old record of 87.2°F set in August 1964. No rain fell, making it the first June in recorded history in Midland where no rain fell. June 2011 was the warmest on record in San Angelo and Borger, 2nd warmest in Austin and Amarillo, 3rd warmest in Dalhart, 4th warmest in San Antonio, and 10th warmest at Brownsville. Yesterday's 3.39" of rain that fell in Brownsville from Tropical Storm Arlene helped make June 2011 the 4th wettest June on record for the city.

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 8.

Enjoy your holiday weekend, everyone, and I'll be back with a new post on Tuesday at the latest.

Jeff Masters
Smoke Sunset
Smoke Sunset
Smoke from Las Conchas Fire Near Los Alamos, as seen from Taos NM June 30
Los Alamos Fire, Smoke, Storm, Snset All in One
Los Alamos Fire, Smoke, Storm, Snset All in One
Taken at sunset from White Rock, NM shows the Los Alamos (Las Conchas) smokey fire at sunset with a thunderstorm falling apart to the right (north).

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:
Folks can post to the Blog entry topic here as they seem fit.


Its Dr. Masters blog entry,,and as members we can discuss whatever we feel appropriate as to that entry.


"these big, severe fires are not unprecedented" in hot, dry intervals the region has experienced during the past 10,000 years. "But recent experience down here suggests that what we're looking at in the last few decades is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we've seen since the last Ice Age."


That being said,,, do you guys over there have a green political party, they want things like burning of undergrowth outlawed and such?
BTW, why are all the blog topic comments being removed????
The interest in the wave in the TWO is probably associated with the fact that in 5 days or so, energy related to it could be a threat to develop (CMC and GFS are showing this)
Seems someone has a logic problem..LoL

Typical denier profile.

So Im gonna go swimming .

Its Hotsui
Quoting uptxcoast:
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE SE TX
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK. THE
PORTION OF THE HIGH OVER SE TX WILL WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY
BEGINNING ON MONDAY BUT THIS WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL WEATHER.

Any of the experts here have any good guesses when this ridge might weaken and/or move? I have never seen this kind of drought in SE Texas. We need rain!
Usually the High Pressure Systems over Texas move or weaken in September? Not sure what has to happen because High Pressure has dominated this state for the past 6 to 9 months. May is Texas wettest month but High pressure was over this state making it feel like August. Texas does get good rains during El Nino. High pressure moves out the next day another builds in its place. I have never seen where southeast Texas does not get the sea-breeze showers at least. Texas needs a strong tropical system but can one move in with High Pressure not letting anything get near this state?
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:

It's okay Aqua. I haven't finished my coffee either, so my mind is a little scatterbrained. How's the weather along the NE FL coastline. Here in southern Georgia--not a cloud in the sky. But a little too hot & muggy for my liking. ;-)


Gio, I never finish my coffee. :)

We are muggy, sluggy, n'buggy here. Slimy n'grimy, garden work will do that.

(lifts coffee cup) here's to some good rain soon.
Quoting AussieStorm:

That being said,,, do you guys over there have a green political party, they want things like burning of undergrowth outlawed and such?


U guys,,?

Dunno bout dat as Im more a Science type than political..

Feel free to google whatever you please,,lotsa info on the web,but be aware its not all facts.

Have a good evening aussie.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The interest in the wave in the TWO is probably associated with the fact that in 5 days or so, energy related to it could be a threat to develop (CMC and GFS are showing this)

Teddy you going to make a tropical update blog today?
Quoting aquak9:


Gio, I never finish my coffee. :)

We are muggy, sluggy, n'buggy here. Slimy n'grimy, garden work will do that.

(lifts coffee cup) here's to some good rain soon.

LOL. Yes, garden work will do that. Cheers to a good soaking soon. ;-)
BTW, why are all the blog topic comments being removed????

Someone without a clue is pushing minus and ! Buttons with a skewed mind.

I found my bathing suit though
Quoting Patrap:


U guys,,?

Dunno bout dat as Im more a Science type than political..

Feel free to google whatever you please,,lotsa info on the web,but be aware its not all facts.

Have a good evening aussie.

I am just asking, if you remember, last year we had the severe bush fires in Victoria that claimed 181 lives. It was put down to weather conditions and fuel levels that had built up over many years due to the ban on clear burning of those undergrowth fuels by the greens political party. If the fuel levels were lower then the fires wouldn't of been as intense.
Quoting Patrap:


U guys,,?

Dunno bout dat as Im more a Science type than political..

Feel free to google whatever you please,,lotsa info on the web,but be aware its not all facts.

Have a good evening aussie.

You sure about that? ;-)

LOL
Can some one update me as to what the chances of salt water getting into the Florida aquifers is now that rain has fallen in Florida?
Quoting AlabamaWx85:

You sure about that? ;-)

LOL


Thanx for the free Bump.

Much appreciated sport.

Glad to see another progressive here.
514. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

I am just asking, if you remember, last year we had the severe bush fires in Victoria that claimed 181 lives. It was put down to weather conditions and fuel levels that had built up over many years due to the ban on clear burning of those undergrowth fuels by the greens political party. If the fuel levels were lower then the fires wouldn't of been as intense.


So, how many years have the greens been in power in Australia?
Quoting Patrap:
BTW, why are all the blog topic comments being removed????

Someone without a clue is pushing minus and ! Buttons with a skewed mind.

I found my bathing suit though

I found the kettle button and also the switch for my electric blanket. going to bed soon. need to warm up before going to bed, tonight is cold
Feel free to browse this entry from Nov 2009 as well.

US-Cuba Conference

Posted by: Patrap, 12:17 PM CST on November 24, 2009


The Panel was Chaired by Jay Higginbotham, Archivist Emeritus of Mobile,Alabama.
His expertise was telling as he knew of the Long standing relationship between America, and also explained How and why the Cuban US relation is so vital...in Hurricane tracking.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Usually the High Pressure Systems over Texas move or weaken in September? Not sure what has to happen because High Pressure has dominated this state for the past 6 to 9 months. May is Texas wettest month but High pressure was over this state making it feel like August. Texas does get good rains during El Nino. High pressure moves out the next day another builds in its place. I have never seen where southeast Texas does not get the sea-breeze showers at least. Texas needs a strong tropical system but can one move in with High Pressure not letting anything get near this state?


It's going to take a significant weather system to break the pattern. More significant than the high itself.
Maybe you should check with Mobal who has that company he moved to Mexico then?


Most USMC Vets are progressives,,as I .

Enjoy your Hot dogs.



Quoting 1911maker:
Can some one update me as to what the chances of salt water getting into the Florida aquifers is now that rain has fallen in Florida?


Lessening slightly however, we're still over 20" away from normal so, nowhere near free from drought. The recent rains have started us in the right direction though. We need a good tropical system this year along with average rainfall to buck this drought. It's funny, even the local West Palm MET's are wishcasting a storm our way...
Quoting scooster67:
Point taken Nea, but the fact is that most people come here to learn and talk about tropical weather and not AGW. I don't even disagree with a lot of what you say. I just don't want to hear about it on a weather blog during tropical weather season.

Fair enough. Have you written to Dr. Masters to tell him the same?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Lessening slightly however, we're still over 20" away from normal so, nowhere near free from drought. The recent rains have started us in the right direction though. We need a good tropical system this year along with average rainfall to buck this drought. It's funny, even the local West Palm MET's are wishcasting a storm our way...


Thanks,
Quoting DEKRE:


So, how many years have the greens been in power in Australia?

they haven' really been in power here, just blocking things passing through govt and objecting to clearing of undergrowth in fire prone areas. At the moment, in the senate the greens took power and will be looking to use it to take my country back 200 years.
Quoting ncstorm:
I think people who post AGW talk in this blog and who dont post in the climate change blog is that they cant hang over there..they "appear" smarter in this blog and will get tore a new one in the acutal climate change blog. I've actually seen the conversation over there and believe me, its very intense and scientific..
I visit it on occasion and Nea is up for the task on that blog, and that is where it belongs.
pssst,

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 8.
Quoting AussieStorm:

they haven' really been in power here, just blocking things passing through govt and objecting to clearing of undergrowth in fire prone areas. At the moment, in the senate the greens took power and will be looking to use it to take my country back 200 years.


Anyone would think you've something against them, Aussie.... ;)
I hope they dont set back the Australian Man on the Moon funding.

: )
Quoting 1911maker:


Thanks,


Your welcome, this CMC run would be just what the doctor ordered.
Quoting scooster67:
I visit it on occasion and Nea is up for the task on that blog, and that is where it belongs.

Again, I politely suggest you tell Dr. Masters that. I'll stop discussing it here when he does. I promise. ;-)
Now that two models, the CMC and GFS, show some sort of development I have a little bit more interest of this wave in the Caribbean. Though, if the GFS pans out it will be no threat to land once it gets going that is. If the NOGAPS hops on board then I'll probably do a blog update, and if the CMC and GFS are consistent.
533. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

they haven' really been in power here, just blocking things passing through govt and objecting to clearing of undergrowth in fire prone areas. At the moment, in the senate the greens took power and will be looking to use it to take my country back 200 years.


yes, the greens are really ugly -

Cleaning pollution,
Creating jobs in alternate energies,
Keeping wetlands from being drained
Pesting against open-pit mining
Fighting for aboriginal rights
and so on
Poor Ozzies!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The interest in the wave in the TWO is probably associated with the fact that in 5 days or so, energy related to it could be a threat to develop (CMC and GFS are showing this)
maybe semi tropical development north of the greater antillias 1974 had a similiar kind of system if i remember right july 4th week.
Quoting Cotillion:


Anyone would think you've something against them, Aussie.... ;)

it's not just me, everyone here is worried, even the ruling state political parties.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Again, I politely suggest you tell Dr. Masters that. I'll stop discussing it here when he does. I promise. ;-)
I think I will do that, ut for now just tell Aqua what type of Coffee you drink so we can get back on topic.

LOL
A question: are those deleting my perfectly allowable comments under the impression that if we don't talk about AGW, it'll go away? CO2 is climbing, and so are global temperatures; will silencing the science make that stop? Personally, I don't believe it will... ;-)
538. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's not just me, everyone here is worried, even the ruling state political parties.


I don't believe that. When I was in Australia, I met quite a lot of intelligent people.
As much as I am a firm believer in AGW, I don't see it's place here today, either. Not today at least.

The climate blog is Here.
Quoting DEKRE:


I don't believe that. When I was in Australia, I met quite a lot of intelligent people.

are you calling me un-intelligent cause i don't agree with the greens party?
541. DEKRE
Quote from Dr. Master's blog:

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 8.
The system will boot that offender soon Nea,as it will recognize the only input is from a single member.

Its a Logic based algorithm and will see the offender and his/her input will be disregarded.


One cant sit back and bang away on one member for too long.
AGW or not, what man has done to this planet is just a fart in the wind when compared with what Mother Earth or an asteriod could dish out!!!
544. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

are you calling me un-intelligent cause i don't agree with the greens party?


Comment 553

With which of the goals do you disagree?
any one wanna do a tropics chat/??
co2now.org



394.35ppm


CO2 Data Set:


Original data file posted by Scripps on Wednesday June 1, 2011



Measuring Location:


Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii




Data Source:

Scripps CO2 Program UCSD / Scripps Institution of Oceanography




Why is CO2 significant?

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the chief greenhouse gas that results from human activities and causes global warming and climate change. To see whether enough is being done at the moment to solve these global problems, there is no single indicator as complete and current as the monthly updates for atmospheric CO2 from the Mauna Loa Observatory.





What is the current trend?

The concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere are increasing at an accelerating rate from decade to decade. accelerating from decade to decade. The latest atmospheric CO2 data is consistent with a continuation of this long-standing trend.




What level is safe?

The upper safety limit for atmospheric CO2 is 350 parts per million (ppm). Atmospheric CO2 levels have stayed higher than 350 ppm since early 1988.
Quoting GiovannaDatoli:
As much as I am a firm believer in AGW, I don't see it's place here today, either. Not today at least.

For those who feel do not see it's place here, feel free to hit the report button to remove them.

Those who feel you would like to continue to discuss the topic at hand, then feel free to do so.

The climate blog is Here.
unfortunately it is "on topic" for Dr. Masters post so reporting it would be inappropriate.
Quoting DEKRE:
Quote from Dr. Master's blog:

The Atlantic is quiet
The Atlantic is quiet, and none of the computer models is predicting tropical cyclone formation through July 8.


Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:23 PM GMT on July 01, 2011

Current date and time: 4:11 PM GMT on July 02, 2011.

Development/no development changes day by day.
The 4.7 million acres that have burned in the U.S. so far this year is more than double the 10-year average of 2.3 million acres, according to the Interagency Fire Center. Both Arizona and New Mexico have seen their largest fires in recorded history, and Texas has seen the most acreage burned in recorded history. The Christian Science Monitor today quoted Grant Meyer, a geologist at the University of New Mexico in Albuquerque who studies the interaction of climate and weathering processes, as saying: "these big, severe fires are not unprecedented" in hot, dry intervals the region has experienced during the past 10,000 years. "But recent experience down here suggests that what we're looking at in the last few decades is at least as severe and maybe more so than anything we've seen since the last Ice Age." A build-up of fuels from forestry practices that emphasized fire suppression is partly responsible, he said, "but part of it as well--and the data are very good on this --it's climatic warming", as human industrial activity and land-use changes have pumped increasing amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. A long-term average decline in annual snow pack, which provides the bulk of the region's water, along with rising average temperatures have lengthened the fire season and dried out the fuel.
Quoting Patrap:
The system will boot that offender soon Nea,as it will recognize the only input is from a single member.

Its a Logic based algorithm and will see the offender and his/her input will be disregarded.


One cant sit back and bang away on one member for too long.

Yeah, I know. They may not understand that any particular member's visibility is based on a "karma" system, so abusing the minus and/or report buttons is a certain path to imminent obscurity.

Quoting Patrap:
Seems the matters of a warming globe scare's the Be Jeeebus outta some.

The warming continues unabated while your belief matters not.

Why some have missed the Big "Conference"

Climate Change Skeptics Unite At Heartland Conference

insider9909
Freedom and justice for all, not some
358 Fans
Become a fan
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54 minutes ago (9:57 AM)
What the King of Polluters did not tell anyone is that he was made very ill last Monday evening by the very thing he says doesn't exist. It seems that Flat Earth Jim has a home on Grand Lake in northeaste%uFFFDrn Oklahoma. Good ole boy Jim took a dip in the lake last Monday evening and got VERY sick. It seems that the blue green algae has turned the lake into a witches brew of pollution and toxicity. You see, chicken farms are allowed to pollute the local streams and rivers that run into the lake. We have higher levels of ultra-viol%uFFFDet light and carbon dioxide, both of which the algae LOVE. A test of the water by Oklahoma DEQ has found 18 levels of toxins and pollutants that are above the safety standard and the state of Oklahoma Health Department has order no swimming in the lake. Meanwhile, Inhofe is still pretty sick.

So, it seems that the very pollution and global climate change that Mr. Jim has denied for the last few years has bit him where the sun doesn't shine.

Karma baby, KARMA!!!


Very sad to cheer when someone is ill...speaks volumes

Now if Mann became ill and some cheered would you be happy..

has to be the most disrespectful post on human life WU has ever had..

amazing
Its a quote sport,,and I could care less what some pouter in Alabama thinks.


You show up only to spew what you do.

Nothing.


Maybe do a Blog entry on my post,,that should garner the masses.




Splash,,,,,ahhhhhhhhhhhhh
Quoting DEKRE:


Comment 553

With which of the goals do you disagree?

I do not disagree with those goals, it's how they go about it. They can be pretty out there. They also want to legalize gay marriage, that is one of there priorities
557. DEKRE
Quoting AussieStorm:

I do not disagree with those goals, it's how they go about it. They can be pretty out there. They also want to legalize gay marriage, that is one of there priorities


LOL
I find it highly ironic that Sen. Inhofe is kept from a Conference on the Denial of Climate Change by swimming in a Lake that's polluted and Baked to a frothy Sickly soup.

Karma indeed.



Quoting DEKRE:


LOL

Why/what do you find that funny.
I'm out, bed time.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
The interest in the wave in the TWO is probably associated with the fact that in 5 days or so, energy related to it could be a threat to develop (CMC and GFS are showing this)


Ensembles (GFS and CMC) don't support any serious tropical development through the week. There are a few outliers in the CMC Global supporting weak cyclogeneis near FL July 4-6 from the Carrib wave but it looks like around a 10% probability.
Arlene still trying hard over there in the Epac,unlikely to redevelop however. High wind shear is still impacting our wave in the Caribbean.


rotation on the fl west coast?

Link
Quoting Progster:


Ensembles (GFS and CMC) don't support any serious tropical development through the week. There are a few outliers in the CMC Global supporting weak cyclogeneis near FL July 4-6 from the Carrib wave but it looks like around a 10% probability.


And they're not going to either for the next few days, right now all you can do is sit and wait. We'll see a storm soon more than likely.
Lol at the NHC chart.A near 0% chance.Maybe they've seen the latest runs of the models?.But even the models don't seem to "excited" over anything developing really.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


And they're not going to either for the next few days, right now all you can do is sit and wait. We'll see a storm soon more than likely.


As long as other conditions permit, I don't see a reason we can not see our second storm of the season in the next few weeks.





Isn't the conditions in the Caribbean supposed to improve for development next week?
Quoting hurricaneben:
Isn't the conditions in the Caribbean supposed to improve for development next week?


Correct.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct.


That's what I saw, which means there's a possibility some of the activity associated with the Puerto Rico tropical disturbance may try to get its act together and become potentially our next depression or even Bret a couple of weeks out.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Lol at the NHC chart.A near 0% chance.Maybe they've seen the latest runs of the models?.But even the models don't seem to "excited" over anything developing really.


Well it's for the next 48 hours. There's almost no way this develops before 8 AM Monday. Upper level trough needs to move out first. Even then there's still little model support, but we'll see.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's going to take a significant weather system to break the pattern. More significant than the high itself.
a cat 5 would do the trick clear everything out in no time
Quoting AussieStorm:

I do not disagree with those goals, it's how they go about it. They can be pretty out there. They also want to legalize gay marriage, that is one of there priorities
its already legal here its ok aussie don't be afraid there regular folk just like you and me and in a free world thats what its about being free to make ones own choice however to impose that on someone that does not wish to engage in that type of behavior is against the law at the same time so there is a sense of protection from anyone forcing themselves on you
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Well it's for the next 48 hours. There's almost no way this develops before 8 AM Monday. Upper level trough needs to move out first. Even then there's still little model support, but we'll see.
Yeah I know.Winds are just way to strong for anything to get going.A moist envierment,warm sst are all there.It's just the upper level pattern...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a cat 5 would do the trick clear everything out in no time


And cause massive damage/high death toll at the same time. Lets keep whatever comes our way a slow-moving and large TS/minimal hurricane, that will significantly bust the drought without causing any excessive damage, most of the time that is.
Quoting hurricaneben:


And cause massive damage/high death toll at the same time. Lets keep whatever comes our way a slow-moving and large TS/minimal hurricane, that will significantly bust the drought without causing any excessive damage, most of the time that is.
only if you are stupid enough to stay behind for the cat5 to get you if you leave you live if you stay you die its simple
For a change of pace (?) take a gander at this fire tornado video. The video was made by a character billing himself as "The Practical Pyromaniac". I put a question mark above after "change of pace" because wish-casting for a hurricane probably has something in common with pyromania psychologically. At least we can't actually start a hurricane in the real world. We can only wish. : )
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a cat 5 would do the trick clear everything out in no time


Including everyone's kitchen sink along with all of their house too!
Punctuation is a lost art seems as well.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a cat 5 would do the trick clear everything out in no time



okay what doestht acomplish... five inches of raincoveedup by storm surge that kills all plants or destroy everyones house causing billions of dollars in damage... maybe we oughta hope for a cat 5 so thegovt has to spend more money they dont haveor kill a thousand people... never even suggest, sarcastic or not to have a cat 5
Quoting Patrap:
Punctuation is a lost art seems as well.



yes itis
nobody is on i take it
Greetings, all.
It's good to feel the Sun today here, after days of drenching rain.
Quoting Patrap:
Punctuation is a lost art seems as well.



+100
It's so annoying when people don't even try to use punctuation or spell correctly when they post. It's one thing if you can't do it, it's another when you don't even try.
Total Rainfall for June at my house is 10.25"
This is lower than the average by nearly 1/2", which surprises me.

We had measured rain on 22 days for June, which is really high.
No doubt that this is why it is so wet outside, we have hardly seen the Sun....
water 85F in n/c coast line!! i see red colors there

Quoting Patrap:
Punctuation is a lost art seems as well.

ialwaysassumethatpeopledontusecorrectgrammarbecau setheyareinahurrytocommentbeforelosingtheirtrainof thought o maybe iz jus a kew thang
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
only if you are stupid enough to stay behind for the cat5 to get you if you leave you live if you stay you die its simple
You can't expect everyone to evacuate keeper

Even if they did, a cat 5 would cause billions of dollars in damage.
Nogaps and cmc with almost identical runs. Rides it up the central/northern east coast of florida and landfall into southern south carolina as a ts.
blog seems slow

Yet American officials were also caught unprepared. Most continue to deny outright that the radioactive pollution will have a palpable effect on the United States. Recent reports, however, indicate that infant mortality rates in eight major cities in the northwestern United States, where the fallout was greatest, jumped 35% in the four weeks following the accident. This is consistent with the biological effects of radiation. [4]

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Japan/MF25Dh02.html
Link

I forgot to add same sex unions in the first line of my last post.
Quoting TomTaylor:
You can't expect everyone to evacuate keeper

Even if they did, a cat 5 would cause billions of dollars in damage.
What about places like the Cayman Islands where it is impossible to evacuate everyone ? A Cat 5 will cause billions of dollars in damage but deaths can be kept to a minimum if you are smart. We had 2 deaths in Ivan both which could have been prevented.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


It's going to take a significant weather system to break the pattern. More significant than the high itself.
That is what I thought. Would a Strong Tropical system have a chance against a High Pressure system or does the High pressure win every time?
still a wild looking radar swirl off off swfl west coast

Link
597. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
a cat 5 would do the trick clear everything out in no time


Jeez, everyone in here is so touchy, it's not like you said you want a cat 5.
Quoting JLPR2:


Jeez, everyone in here is so touchy, it's not like you said you want a cat 5.
well its a poor solution anyway. This is a deep layer ridge so a cat 5 would be steered right around the ridge, not through it.
Quoting NuclearJim:
Man Made Global Warming......What a crock. But hey, it keeps the Grants coming right? Keep living the lie. eventually you will come to believe it.

"Fidelis Ordo of Terminatio Os'ed"

For me....The real term should be Man Made Global Pollution or contamination.... and its consequences....
Ya'll don't let something sneak up on us,now.....vigilance is required ;0/
603. JLPR2
Quoting TomTaylor:
well its a poor solution anyway. This is a deep layer ridge so a cat 5 would be steered right around the ridge, not through it.


Yeah, but a strong cat 5 will give it a run for its money, pushing much harder against it than a weaker hurricane or TS.

In other words, Highs rule! XD
uhhh...weatherwise that is....lol...

Quoting ncstorm:
I think people who post AGW talk in this blog and who dont post in the climate change blog is that they cant hang over there..they "appear" smarter in this blog and will get tore a new one in the acutal climate change blog. I've actually seen the conversation over there and believe me, its very intense and scientific..
I stopped posting on hat blog because I got bored with it. Same arguments from each side. Same evidence. Same rebuttals. Same counter evidence. Never went anywhere. Got bored.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is what I thought. Would a Strong Tropical system have a chance against a High Pressure system or does the High pressure win every time?
depends on how strong the high is (pressure wise and layer wise-how far through the atmosphere it is). In this case, it is a deep layer high, meaning the high pressure extends all the way from the lower to mid/upper levels of the atmosphere. A cat 5 storm is steered by deep layer winds, so if anything, it would be steered around the ridge and not plow directly through the ridge.
607. red0
Quoting 1911maker:
blog seems slow

Yet American officials were also caught unprepared. Most continue to deny outright that the radioactive pollution will have a palpable effect on the United States. Recent reports, however, indicate that infant mortality rates in eight major cities in the northwestern United States, where the fallout was greatest, jumped 35% in the four weeks following the accident. This is consistent with the biological effects of radiation.


This infant mortality meme was originally started by anti-nuclear activist Janette Sherman, and first picked up by Al-Jazerra. It has spread from there to less reputable news sites. The data and methodology used to support a like between Fukushima and infant mortality is fundamentally flawed in many ways. Please ignore here, she is as credible about nuclear power as the HAARP people are about anything weather related.

Here is a good analysis of her "research". http://nuclearpoweryesplease.org/blog/2011/06/17/ s hame-on-you-janette-sherman-and-joseph-mangano/
Very nice here in Fargo. Kinda warm (84F), but very low humidity. (DP 48F). Not a cloud in the sky!
So models beginning to hint at the formation of a storm, CMC the leader, Nogaps a little behind, GFS behind not quite there yet, EMCWF the caboose(as normal) with a broad low in the Eastern gulf.

The pattern has shifted to the ridge carrying the tropical wave across the caribbean islands and into the bahamas and then into florida, goergia, and carolinas. but if the ridge in the next month begins to strengthen youll be seeing many more strong gulf storms coming right into the US...
Quoting sunlinepr:

Hey, I don't mind if you are gay or not... that's your choice and your life... But (for me) that name is improper for this Met. blog...
For me the same will apply for someone calling itself CatholicMet, BuddistCane, atheistStorm, GlobalWarmingCane, antiObamaInvest etc.
We are not here to sell our ideals and advance or our preferences, but to discuss and learn meteorology...
And all these kind of names will bring is conflict in here.... One group in one side and the other....


I thought he/she was just happy about weather. Probably likes shower curtains too.
~
Well didn't look like that in the preview...rich text bites again.

Edit failed too.
3 hours ago Now 850mb vorticity showing up a "little" better


Thats odd the straight lines off the east coast
Hey Everyone "Hows The Weather"????

Here it is starting to look stormy :o)

Anyway I thought I would check in and see what is coming.
Link
Meh...CMC wants to develop every wave in the Caribbean like usual. Taking that model with a grain of salt. Too much shear down there form the ULL
Look like a fun blog today.

I think I'll take the progressive-conservative approach i.e. live in the present, and go outside, and enjoy the weather while grilling (yes over an open fire, oh my) hot dogs, sausage, burgers, etc. and enjoy them with homemade potato salad and some cold adult beverages instead of fretting and worrying about carbon footprints, coming ice ages, etc.

Be thankful no-one is currently in harms way of a tropical event, and help those who are rebuilding (flood, tornado, etc. victims) even if it's just with our thoughts and prayers if that's all one can do.

Folks! In the U.S.A. it's Independence Day Weekend! Enjoy It! And most importantly Be Safe!

Hi all,

Well this season is what 1/6 of the way over? Question for those in the know. Why would the NHC make a yellow circle and say 0 or almost 0 percent chance of development? If something tried to spin up would they not have plenty pf time to put a yellow, orange or red circle?
Shear is gradually on the decline in the Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% at 8pm est
No too sure exactly what this map means for the AOI, could someone help me out please?
Quoting Autistic2:
Hi all,

Well this season is what 1/6 of the way over? Question for those in the know. Why would the NHC make a yellow circle and say 0 or almost 0 percent chance of development? If something tried to spin up would they not have plenty pf time to put a yellow, orange or red circle?
I gess they just didn't want to use the crayons today.... Other than that I'm not sure what they were thinking when they done that....

Taco :o)
Quoting stormpetrol:
Shear is gradually on the decline in the Caribbean, wouldn't be surprised to see a 10% at 8pm est
No too sure exactly what this map means for the AOI, could someone help me out please?
low level convergence. Positive values indicate convergence, negative values indicate divergence. Low level convergence is good, or perhaps a better word would be necessary, for tropical development, while divergence inhibits development.
Shear
Always enjoyed the SciGuy over at the Houston Chronicle when it comes to local weather blogging. He looks into the future a bit & sees lotsa rain! Albeit toward August. In which our friendly neighborhood HIGH will start to set up shop in the Rockies. Of course this may spell Trouble during the heart of the Hurricane Season. Still, interesting.

630. red0
Quoting Skyepony:
Red~ Slamming someone doesn't change mortality records.


Please read her actual "research", if you can find it that is. She talks about it on her web site as if she wasn't the author. The methodology she uses is fundamentally flawed. It is so flawed that even if she didn't have a long history of bias in the past, it's obvious to me she has gone way past activism into deception in order to sell her books.

Her original publication: http://www.counterpunch.org/sherman06102011.html
Quoting TomTaylor:
low level convergence. Positive values indicate convergence, negative values indicate divergence. Low level convergence is good, or perhaps a better word would be necessary, for tropical development, while divergence inhibits development.

Thank you , I thought something along those lines but I wasn't sure, Tks again.
Interesting little area SW of Jamaica.


Tried to post a loop. :) Didn't work.
no shear in the middle of the gulf
well getting a little interesting for sure on the blogs whats the word iam looking for idle banter thats it
Maybe some rain in East Texas?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRENGTHENING BROAD-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAY PERIOD. PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DESPITE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY BUT
AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS...JUST NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON THE COOL SIDE SO HIGHS
WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES...BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVELIKE FEATURE MAY PUSH WESTWARD INTO OUR EASTERN CWA...ENHANCING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
Quoting weatherh98:
no shear in the middle of the gulf
maybe if ya covered it over with your shower curtain it would stop any storm from forming
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Maybe some rain in East Texas?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
A STRENGTHENING BROAD-SCALE RIDGE PATTERN ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE
FOUR-CORNERS REGION OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
DURING MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAY PERIOD. PERSISTENT STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WITH LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIABILITY WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DRYING OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DESPITE WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES CONSIDERABLY BUT
AN OCCASIONAL ISOLATED SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS...JUST NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. GUIDANCE CONTINUES ON THE COOL SIDE SO HIGHS
WERE RAISED A FEW DEGREES...BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND
IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTION. FORECAST LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER MIGRATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY...A WEAK TROPICAL
WAVELIKE FEATURE MAY PUSH WESTWARD INTO OUR EASTERN CWA...ENHANCING
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.


You know I like weather but i like weather close to home so i can see and i like lots of it... i like the tropics also therefore the fourcorners insnt for me
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well getting a little interesting for sure on the blogs whats the word iam looking for idle banter thats it


Kicked back and watching the grass grow sort of day. Not very much in the tropics forming this weekend looks like.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe if ya covered it over with your shower curtain it would stop any storm from forming


shower curtain and a bedspread
Quoting AllStar17:
Interesting little area SW of Jamaica.
getting that way
Guys look what is coming off africa. there are a couple strong waves in the central atlantic that will be moving west into the carribean
NASA's Aura Satellite Measures Pollution from New Mexico, Arizona Fires

ScienceDaily (July 1, 2011) — NASA's Aura Satellite has provided a view of nitrogen dioxide levels coming from the fires in New Mexico and Arizona. Detecting nitrogen dioxide is important because it reacts with sunlight to create low-level ozone or smog and poor air quality.

Link
Quoting TropicalTracker2011:
Guys look what is coming off africa. there are a couple strong waves in the central atlantic that will be moving west into the carribean


i saw that too.... it looks pretty active for early july off toward the african coast.
Quoting stormpetrol:


count em two low pressures in the carribean under forty knot wind shear
double post...womp womp wah
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Maybe some rain in East Texas?




Why next week? Why not now! Perhaps we'll need to 'increase' NOAA's budget. It might be the only way to get the forecast we want.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the one in the eastern carribean is dead but the one by jamaica looks healthy
Quoting cycleranger:


Why next week? Why not now! Perhaps we'll need to 'increase' NOAA's budget. It might be the only way to get the forecast we want.


that sir/ ma'am would involve govtt money
According to the NHC's 1200 UTC surface analysis, a tropical wave was located just to the east of the area SW of Jamaica. An interaction there may cause some mischief. The area the NHC highlighted in the TWO is not the area SW of Jamaica.

Trying my hardest for even something to keep an eye on. Maybe that is it.
Quoting weatherh98:


the one in the eastern carribean is dead but the one by jamaica looks healthy

I would agree with you if going by looks, but I've learned look are deceiving, according to the maps, the one SW of PR has all the lower convergence, the one SW of Jamaica has more divergence, but things could change, who knows? I sure don't :)
Quoting stormpetrol:

I would agree with you if going by looks, but I've learned look are deceiving, according to the maps, the one SW of PR has all the lower convergence, the one SW of Jamaica has more divergence, but things could change, who knows? I sure don't :)


okay thank you
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IN REGARDS TO TROPICAL WEATHER...ENOUGH 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WERE SPLAYED OUT ALONG AN ELONGATED AXIS ACROSS/AROUND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT WEEKEND TO DEPICT A RETROGRADING INVERTED
TROUGH ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO/WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD AS IT APPROACHES
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.



Quoting weatherh98:


okay thank you


havnt done this long enough to look below the clouds
Is someone sending an SOS smoke signal off of Pinellas County?

Quoting clwstmchasr:
Is someone sending an SOS smoke signal off of Pinellas County?



thats a lot of smoke... it would have to be a ship going down
Quoting GayMeteorology:
Hopefully a major cane will hit our country in September, fingers crossed, ^_^.


for the secondtime today i will give all of you wishcasters a talk... ill make this one short and sweet.... YOU DONT WANT A MAJOR CANE
Quoting GayMeteorology:
Hopefully a major cane will hit our country in September, fingers crossed, ^_^.
Obviously you have never had the "pleasure" of this experience before.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Obviously you have never had the "pleasure" of this experience before.


Trust me... the month ofcleanup that followswill be maddening because you wanted it
Quoting weatherh98:


Trust me... the month ofcleanup that followswill be maddening because you wanted it
LOL. Month of clean-up ? Not after a major. It takes years of clean-up.
Quoting GayMeteorology:


On the contrary, ma'am, I have.
Okay JFV. If you say so. Yes, I know it is you because very few on here know whether I am male or female and you do thus the ma'am.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. Month of clean-up ? Not after a major. It takes years of clean-up.


for katrina it took southeast louisiana north of lake pontchartrain took a month
Quoting weatherh98:


that sir/ ma'am would involve govtt money


Why yes, yes it would. Their request for the next budgetary year increase of $749 million would go a long way in bringing a little confidence to my local forecaster.
Quoting weatherh98:


for the secondtime today i will give all of you wishcasters a talk... ill make this one short and sweet.... YOU DONT WANT A MAJOR CANE
Look at the join date, look at his posts, look at the username

Give him the benefit of the doubt, might not be a troll. But at least be aware that its more than likely a troll
Ignore it and move on. That is all.
Quoting cycleranger:


Why yes, yes it would. Their request for the next budgetary year increase of $749 million would go a long way to bringing a little confidence to my local forecaster.


theres just one tinsy wincy problem we dont have 749 million bucks they spent it all learnin how shrimp run on treadmills
Rain is popping up in my area. Plenty of outflow boundaries making waves along the SE Tx/SW La border. Let's see if one can make it my way.
Quoting weatherh98:



if it were jfv we would be lookin at obama givin us the finger
That wasn't him I don't think. This I am sure is. The clean-up, in other words, getting rid of the heaviest debris might take a month but a real clean-up takes quite a bit longer. After Ivan we didn't even have garbage pick up for at least 3 weeks to a month. Heavy equipment went through what was left of the roads and pushed up what they could but it took a lot longer to clean up.
12z CMC, 108 hrs. No one freak out, no model support behind it.
Quoting weatherh98:



if it were jfv we would be lookin at obama givin us the finger


I don't think it's JFV, because he wants a cane to hit Florida, but then again, whom am I to look into his mind.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That wasn't him I don't think. This I am sure is. The clean-up, in other words, getting rid of the heaviest debris might take a month but a real clean-up takes quite a bit longer. After Ivan we didn't even have garbage pick up for at least 3 weeks to a month. Heavy equipment went through what was left of the roads and pushed up what they could but it took a lot longer to clean up.


i was one of theidiots whostayed for katrina sowe went toworkright away
That's quite the blob in the Carib. this afternoon! Any thoughts on it developing, potentially speaking here?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z CMC, 108 hrs. No one freak out, no model support behind it.


okay great CMC the apocalypse model has a storm
Quoting CybrTeddy:
12z CMC, 108 hrs. No one freak out, no model support behind it.


Teddy, of more interest, take a look at that beautiful Azores/Bermuda Ridge. God, if that stays positioned like that into Aug. and Sept., then I'll be one extraordinarily happy blogger on here, =).
Quoting weatherh98:


theres just one tinsy wincy problem we dont have 749 million bucks they spent it all learnin how shrimp run on treadmills


Oh I see. I figured requesting money was a lot like how I received an increase in my allowance when I was a kid. I would give a presentation in the living-room to my parents, marking my achievements over previous years, sweeping out the garage & mowing the lawn.

Or not.
Quoting cycleranger:


Oh I see. I figured requesting money was a lot like how I received an increase in my allowance when I was a kid. I would give a presentation in the living-room to my parents, marking my achievements over previous years, sweeping out the garage & mowing the lawn.

Or not.


i think they should und nhc or noaa more but they wont personally i likemy shrimp fat and juicy
Quoting weatherh98:


for the secondtime today i will give all of you wishcasters a talk... ill make this one short and sweet.... YOU DONT WANT A MAJOR CANE


Yep, too damaging. But a TS or minimal hurricane would be fine.
Quoting hurricaneben:


Yep, too damaging. But a TS or minimal hurricane would be fine.


i like weaker stormsthat dump much neaded rainn but storms thatkill people.... anyone who wants that is sick
Fireworks bansLink
Quoting weatherh98:


i like weaker stormsthat dump much neaded rainn but storms thatkill people.... anyone who wants that is sick


I hate the part with the deaths...we can handle some minor damage and brief power outages, no problemo, as long as no one dies.
it seems nature is alittle clogged up in the western atlantic
Quoting hurricaneben:


I hate the part with the deaths...we can handle some minor damage and brief power outages, no problemo, as long as no one dies.


thank you
Quoting presslord:
Fireworks bansLink


Local news took up the story on counties banning fireworks. Unfortunately few 'round here are heeding the warnings. Last few nights I've heard poppers.
Quoting cycleranger:


Local news took up the story on counties banning fireworks. Unfortunately few 'round here are heeding the warnings. Last few nights I've heard poppers.


can we ust celebrte independence day without this bans
Quoting weatherh98:


count em two low pressures in the carribean under forty knot wind shear


Umm, not the Puerto Rican one.

wow shear is droping in the caribbean and its going to be gone by 48 hours





Quoting tropicfreak:


Umm, not the Puerto Rican one.



yes that one too
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Okay JFV. If you say so. Yes, I know it is you because very few on here know whether I am male or female and you do thus the ma'am.
If you know its a troll why engage with it? Thats what keeps them coming back. - ! ignore = end of story
Quoting weatherh98:


yes that one too


Look at wunderkid's post above.
Quoting tropicfreak:


Look at wunderkid's post above.


then what is it..... a high pressure or what nothin the nhc obviously doesnt think so
Quoting tropicfreak:


Look at wunderkid's post above.


and wunderkids are the next generation of wunderadults ilike them
No tropical for at least a week.
Quoting weatherh98:


then what is it..... a high pressure or what nothin the nhc obviously doesnt think so


Never mind, in any case shear has been dropping in that area pretty rapidly since last night, so eventually it will become favorable.
Quoting weatherh98:


i was one of theidiots whostayed for katrina sowe went toworkright away
Same here after Ivan. We had caskets with bodies in them all over and major damage. I guess it all boils down to available resources.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Same here after Ivan. We had caskets with bodies in them all over and major damage. I guess it all boils down to available resources.


yes thats exactly it... preperation preperation preperation
Quoting weatherh98:


and wunderkids are the next generation of wunderadults ilike them


He really isn't a kid. He's actually an adult.
Quoting sunlinepr:

What's that off Brazil? Maybe south Atlantic storm this year?
oh okay wait i misunderstood nevermind that convo
Quoting red0:


Please read her actual "research", if you can find it that is. She talks about it on her web site as if she wasn't the author. The methodology she uses is fundamentally flawed. It is so flawed that even if she didn't have a long history of bias in the past, it's obvious to me she has gone way past activism into deception in order to sell her books.

Her original publication: http://www.counterpunch.org/sherman06102011.html



I have read her original piece & just reread it..thanks.. The numbers are provided. & yes normally the infant mortality deaths are low enough to where it doesn't take much increase to statistically increase the % by 35%. That's also the same area that fallout was found in the milk. It's compared to the 4 weeks prior & not years past which makes this more valid & even though it's a little spike it's a spike that doesn't normally happen...the trend has been a slow increase. Country wide there was a 2.3% increase. Both are significant..because it isn't normal & is what is expected from an accident such as what occurred, after looking at how nuclear radiation has sickened & killed people in the past. Just because she wrote a book about it doesn't mean that didn't happen. CDC provided the numbers, not her. Statistics is a pretty accepted form of comparing things mathematically. I bet i could even come up with the same results.


Quoting presslord:
Fireworks bansLink


Gotta admit, the part where they suggest a Mentos geyser as an alternative cracked me up.

I think some of the cities in North Texas are still going to put on their displays but I wish they wouldn't.
Quoting NuclearJim:
Man Made Global Warming......What a crock. But hey, it keeps the Grants coming right? Keep living the lie. eventually you will come to believe it.

"Fidelis Ordo of Terminatio Os'ed"


Where do you pick up these infamous cash award grants for believing in global warming? I could really use that conspiracy money to pay off my student loans.
Quoting weatherh98:


can we ust celebrte independence day without this bans
the reason for the ban is to prevent fires from breaking out but i guess if you want to take that chance hopefully you're house or apartment or trailer or tent or cardboard box don't burn down
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the reason for the ban is to prevent fires from breaking out but i guess if you want to take that chance hopefully you're house or apartment or trailer or tent or cardboard box don't burn down


i know that but think about the chil'ren
Quoting weatherh98:


can we ust celebrte independence day without this bans
Pop fireworks around here, major fires will start and homes will burn, it is simple as that. Water supplies are low, hurting for water to fight fires in huge part of Texas.
720. DEKRE
Quoting weatherh98:


i know that but think about the chil'ren


Yes, they are going to enjoy the nice big fires when your houses burn!
Not too long ago a homeless person was frying eggs, he did not put the fire all the way out, wind picked up and 10 homes burned down. Most of these people had No insurance and they lost everything. No fireworks period especially for the children.
G M yes its still neutral but it seems you have been nuked

? thought it was a bloghole...
but just s l o w
ya just a little slow
we are averaging about 23.3 posts per hour
ok. Back to what is current. Does anyone see any threat within the next 10 days in the Carib, or GOM?
slow because the dr said there is not going to be anything for at least now 6 more days we are waisting our time with these wannabees
Finally...some pop-ups for Texas...:)

:)))

Conditions at 42058 as of
(4:50 pm EST)
2150 GMT on 07/02/2011:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 70 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 6.9 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 5.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 85 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.03 in ( Falling )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 88.7 °F
Visual

Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
If you know its a troll why engage with it? Thats what keeps them coming back. - ! ignore = end of story


Then you have JFV, who comes back no matter what.
I see there are a lot of troublemakers on the blog today. If you don't get serious, I am going to take away your dessert. And GM are you really SSIG?

Quoting FrankZapper:
I see there are a lot of troublemakers on the blog today. If you don't get serious, I am going to take away your dessert. And GM are you really SSIG?

maybe but GM has been banned it appears but he's new screen name is homocane how do i know i got an email from him/her a few minutes ago
Which wave will win? The one in the Caribbean or the will one develop of the East coast of Florida next week. Both are good candidates. Conditions are not favorable for either right now, but might be after Monday. I know which one it is, but I'm not telling.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
we are averaging about 23.3 posts per hour


Is that like 1 per minute?
Quoting Grothar:


Is that like 1 per minute?


Hey Grothar.....glad ya stopped by....lazy day on the blog....
Quoting Grothar:


Is that like 1 per minute?
0.38 POSTS A MINUTE
Quoting FrankZapper:
I see there are a lot of troublemakers on the blog today. If you don't get serious, I am going to take away your dessert. And GM are you really SSIG?



No Frank, GM is actually he-whos-name-starts-with-the-letter J.
and were you not to be gone a couple of weeks or was it a couple of days
Quoting Grothar:
Which wave will win? The one in the Caribbean or the will one develop of the East coast of Florida next week. Both are good candidates. Conditions are not favorable for either right now, but might be after Monday. I know which one it is, but I'm not telling.



I think everyone does LOL
Quoting EYEStoSEA:


Hey Grothar.....glad ya stopped by....lazy day on the blog....


You know I would never leave you guys alone. I'm not like some bloggers who only come on hear when there is a big system out there. I always check on my friends and see if they are enjoying their weather. I finally got to where I was going. All I can say is that it is very, very hot here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
0.38 POSTS A MINUTE


can't ever beat you kids, can I?????
Quoting caneswatch:


I think everyone does LOL



Hi! So what is your prognosis for the next 10 days?

I am just wondering? Ty.


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LOOSEN IT`S GRIP ON THE AREA
STARTING TOMORROW AND IN FACT BY MIDDLE OF NEXT TROF IS FORECAST
TO REPLACE THE RIDGING. THEREFORE WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND RAIN
CHANCES. MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
QPF STILL NOT FORECAST TO BE TOO GREAT AT THIS POINT.

A glimmer of hope for our parched ground...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and were you not to be gone a couple of weeks or was it a couple of days


I know you can check IP addresses. See where I am? I will be gone for quite a while. Just had a quick chance to come on, or would you rather I stay off for two weeks??????
Quoting caneswatch:


I think everyone does LOL


Oh, yeah!! Who squealed?
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN




EDIT - Wow, that's a real TWO.

I've never seen one this early.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022238
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting Grothar:


Oh, yeah!! Who squealed?


I didn't, especially after I caught that bonita today haha.
Quoting caneswatch:


Then you have JFV, who comes back no matter what.
That was meant for me and it was JFV LOL. He cannot hide when he comes on here.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe but GM has been banned it appears but he's new screen name is homocane how do i know i got an email from him/her a few minutes ago
KOG, he was JFV.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Not the best idea to post false TWO's, people take them seriously or even think its 8 o'clock.

EDIT - Wow, that's a real TWO.

I've never seen one this early.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 022238
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


He probably wanted to get home and watch the fireworks. Can't blame the guy. What could change in an hour?


heat is on
Quoting rmbjoe1954:



Hi! So what is your prognosis for the next 10 days?

I am just wondering? Ty.


I'd be looking for development mid-late next week in the western Caribbean, and then whatever that has formed there will make its way up into the Gulf.
Quoting Grothar:


I know you can check IP addresses. See where I am? I will be gone for quite a while. Just had a quick chance to come on, or would you rather I stay off for two weeks??????
its good to see ya anytime and you're location is safe with me
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN CAMERON PARISH HAVE STARTED NUMEROUS FIRES
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL


We need a lot of rain.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That was meant for me and it was JFV LOL. He cannot hide when he comes on here.
The best way to out JFV is to get Taz on the blog as bait and if the subject starts pestering and nibbling at the bait then the suspect is JFV.
Remember,,we support the "catch and release" policy.

Tyvm
Quoting caneswatch:


I'd be looking for development mid-late next week in the western Caribbean, and then whatever that has formed there will make its way up into the Gulf.


Thanks. I value your synopsis.
Quoting Grothar:


He probably wanted to get home and watch the fireworks. Can't blame the guy. What could change in an hour?


And no more mention of the wave.
Quoting Patrap:
Remember,,we support the "catch and release" policy.

Tyvm


Bonita are always released after being caught.
Quoting rmbjoe1954:


Thanks. I value your synopsis.


No problem, I appreciate it.
Quoting Patrap:
Remember,,we support the "catch and release" policy.

Tyvm
I keep everything over 12 inches. Small speckled trout pan fried are VERY tasty.
I like um with pecans or almonds Pan fried,,

FunkTop

Quoting caneswatch:


Bonita are always released after being caught.



So how big was it? I have never been fishing.
Quoting Patrap:
I like um with pecans or almonds Pan fried,,



I like trout grilled with butter and oregano.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


And no more mention of the wave.


Which I found odd. The Canadian and The European models are already coming up with scenarios and even the GFS is on board with development of some kind. I think it should have deserved at least an honorable mention. I get they only save those for the 'discussions part'.
Quoting Patrap:
FunkTop



Rainbow

Quoting Grothar:



So how big was it? I have never been fishing.


About 2 feet. They're very distinct-looking.



We got rained on during the first couple hours. Apparently, there was a Severe Thunderstorm Warning while we were out.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
345 PM CDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG VARIOUS BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHTNING
STRIKES ACROSS SOUTHERN CAMERON PARISH HAVE STARTED NUMEROUS FIRES
THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL


We need a lot of rain.

I lived in La. for several years and it rained all the time so lightning starting fires there is unheard of to me. There are pop up showers in Texas but they are few and far between. 100 and clear here at 6:15 pm.
Quoting Grothar:


You know I would never leave you guys alone. I'm not like some bloggers who only come on hear when there is a big system out there. I always check on my friends and see if they are enjoying their weather. I finally got to where I was going. All I can say is that it is very, very hot here.
Are you trying to tell us they have WiFi in Hades?
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Are you trying to tell us they have WiFi in Hades?


Shen, that's not nice, even from you. :)
Hi Yall!
longtime lurker, never posted. anyway, just wanted to let you know we lurkers appreciate your insights. I am from New Orleans and unfortunately have always found tropical weather fascinating.
The Vanishing Face of Gaia

There is two different systems to watch in the atlantic in the coming days, one more likely to form than the other.

Tropical Watch for the next five days:
AOI #1: A monsoonal area of low pressure with a anticyclone is producing little convection near the center and most thunderstorm activity is centered off to the Northwest due to some shear from an upper level low off to the North-Northeast of the system. with this disorganization, and moderate shear apparant in the next four days, little development of this system is expected over the next 120 hours. There is a low chance, 15%, of formation from this system.

AOI: #2 A tropical wave centered East of Puerto Rico is producing disorganized showers, and thunderstorms. With a Upper-level low off to its West, there is 30 knots of shear impacting it at the time, though the shear could let up in the coming days, and hurricane models have hinted at some slow development of this system in the next 120 hours. This system will have to wait until later, near the Bahamas, before development will begin to occur due to the Upper-level low off to it's west. There is a Medium chance, 35%, of formation from this system in the next 120 hours.

Forecaster Hurricanedean07
Quoting FrankZapper:
I keep everything over 12 inches. Small speckled trout pan fried are VERY tasty.


Agreed they are "Wonderful Fried"


Taco :o)
well since there is not much going on we could watch ice melt


Quoting caneswatch:


Bonita are always released after being caught.
Why ? Just asking because down here if they are caught they are eaten.
Quoting Skyepony:
I have read her original piece & just reread it..thanks.. The numbers are provided. & yes normally the infant mortality deaths are low enough to where it doesn't take much increase to statistically increase the % by 35%. That's also the same area that fallout was found in the milk. It's compared to the 4 weeks prior & not years past which makes this more valid & even though it's a little spike it's a spike that doesn't normally happen...the trend has been a slow increase. Country wide there was a 2.3% increase. Both are significant..because it isn't normal & is what is expected from an accident such as what occurred, after looking at how nuclear radiation has sickened & killed people in the past. Just because she wrote a book about it doesn't mean that didn't happen. CDC provided the numbers, not her. Statistics is a pretty accepted form of comparing things mathematically. I bet i could even come up with the same results.

On a related side note, there's this little bit of news from Japan:
Radiation traces found in Fukushima children

Small quantities of radioactive substances have been found in the urine samples of ten children living in the same region as Japan's damaged nuclear power plant.

All ten children surveyed, aged between six and 16, tested positively for trace amounts of caesium-134 and caesium-137 as part of a study conducted by a local citizens' group and a non-government organisation.

The children live in Fukushima city, located around 37 miles from the stricken power plant, with the findings likely to fuel growing concerns surrounding the risk of internal radiation contamination among residents.

The test results coincided with the government recommending the evacuation of a further 113 families from Date, Fukushima prefecture, after four locations in the area were newly identified as radiation "hot spots".

All those who wished to evacuate the areas would be supported by the government, in particular children and pregnant women, as a result of its status as a "hot spot" %u2013 defined as an area in which household radiation levels are estimated to exceed 20 millisieverts a year.

- - - - - - - - - -

Meanwhile, the government today started its compulsory power usage restrictions as planned, in order to regulate electricity consumption to prevent serious summertime shortages.

Government fines of up to 7,712 (1 million yen) will be imposed on firms who violate the energy-saving restrictions, which are expected to stay in place until September 22.

As Japan braces itself for the hottest summer on record, the government is currently monitoring power usage to ensure that the supple-demand radio does not exceed 97 per cent.

The Telegraph Article...

(Don't worry about that last sentence; I'm sure it's just another coincidence.)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Why ? Just asking because down here if they are caught they are eaten.


Probably because they're so small. I don't really know why we don't keep them, maybe because we target the mahi-mahi and the kingfish.
Quoting Charliesgirl:
Hi Yall!
longtime lurker, never posted. anyway, just wanted to let you know we lurkers appreciate your insights. I am from New Orleans and unfortunately have always found tropical weather fascinating.


Hi, I thought I was the only lurker who didn't post.
Doom,despare,agony oh my!!Welcome to the twilight zone!
Quoting Neapolitan:

As an aside, there's this little bit of news from Japan:
>Radiation traces found in Fukushima children

1 result could be lower iq and DNA damage, which is persistent in offspring. Leading to mutated babies.
Beside this, cancer will take a huge toll.

The question is how hard the japan country is affected long term wise. Probably a good part of the island is rendered inhabitable.

Plus the situation is still not under control, especially the food-chain contamination is an issue. This does include other pacific nations and nations through global markets, as well.
Quoting Neapolitan:
As Japan braces itself for the hottest summer on record, the government is currently monitoring power usage to ensure that the supple-demand radio does not exceed 97 per cent.


(Don't worry about that last sentence; I'm sure it;s just another coincidence.)


No Need to Worry: Record Tornadoes, Raging Fires, Mega Floods, & Crop-Killing Droughts Are NOT What Climatologists Predicted

This op-ed originally appeared in the Washington Post.

Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week’s shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history). No, that doesn’t mean a thing.

It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected.

If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air.

It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest.

Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline?

Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.” Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don’t start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year’s failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland’s failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France’s and Germany’s current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic.

It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.

Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign 350.org and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont. LINK
Quoting caneswatch:


Probably because they're so small. I don't really know why we don't keep them, maybe because we target the mahi-mahi and the kingfish.
Ok. They are good frying fish though.
NHC is perplexing. This morning when shear was high we had a yellow circle. Shear has been dropping throughout the day and conditions improving and no circle.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Are you trying to tell us they have WiFi in Hades?


I dont care who you are..thats funny!
Concerning tornadoes and AGW:


From here.

There doesn't appear to be a link between recent warming and strong tornado counts to me.
Crownweather:

Will Be Watching The Western Caribbean & The Gulf Of Mexico Next Week For Possible Development
Rob Lightbown on July 2, 2011, 10:51 am

This morning’s satellite and surface analysis showed a tropical wave over the central Caribbean. There were showers and thunderstorms occurring across the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. The reason for the uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity is because this tropical wave is interacting with an upper level trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions are currently very unfavorable for any type of development due to strong wind shear values.

Heavy rainfall with the threat for flash flooding will affect Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic from today through Sunday.

This tropical wave will track westward over the next couple of days reaching the western Caribbean on Sunday night and Monday and eventually the Gulf Of Mexico by the middle part of next week. Environmental conditions may become more favorable as this tropical wave reaches the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. The latest Canadian model tries to spin up a tropical cyclone along the east coast of Florida during the Tuesday to Thursday time period. The European model forecasts that this tropical wave will try to organize as it tracks across the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. The GFS model, on the other hand, forecasts that this system will split off to the north and develop an area of low pressure off of the US East Coast next week.

I think the GFS model may be handing off the energy too quickly to the north and an idea closer to the European model may be closer to reality. So, I expect no development whatsoever from today through Sunday. Once we get into next week, this tropical wave may start to look more organized and it will have to be monitored for possible development; albeit any development of this tropical wave will be quite slow to occur.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NHC is perplexing. This morning when shear was high we had a yellow circle. Shear has been dropping throughout the day and conditions improving and no circle.
that's for sure. And they put up a 0%...don't really understand the reasoning behind that
Quoting help4u:
Doom,despare,agony oh my!!Welcome to the twilight zone!

Brought to you this week by ExxonMobil. If you can't make it to the Gulf, they'll bring the Gulf to you!
Ruptured pipeline sends oil coursing down the Yellowstone River

An ExxonMobil oil pipeline that ruptured beneath the Yellowstone River has fouled more than 150 miles of the waterway between Laurel and Miles City.

Exxon officials have not said what caused the leak, but in a morning press conference Saturday, Yellowstone County officials noted that the high level of the river, the speed of the water and quickly moving debris all may be factors.

The oil slick started just east of the Laurel Bridge late Friday night and by 9 a.m. Saturday had reached Worden. By about 3 p.m. it had reached the Myers Bridge in Hysham. The pipe itself connects Exxon's Silvertip Line — which brings crude from the oilfields in northern Wyoming — to the Billings refinery.

At various points along the Yellowstone, strings and pools of black and red-brown crude collected in eddies and clung to plant life and riverbanks. White pelicans sitting on floating logs in the morning sun Saturday were ringed with brown slurry.

"It's going to be a heck of a cleanup," said Duane Winslow, Yellowstone County director of disaster and emergency services.

Article...
Quoting sirmaelstrom:

There doesn't appear to be a link between recent warming and strong tornado counts to me.

You cannot draw direct conclusion from the tornado amount to the theory of AGW.


In terms of destruction, intensity and location this years tornado season has been remarkable.

Along with the Tri-State Tornado and the 1896 St. Louis-East St. Louis tornado, it ranks as one of Missouri's and America's deadliest tornadoes and is likely to be the costliest; the cost to rebuild Joplin could reach $3 billion.[4][5] It was the first F5 or EF5 tornado in Missouri since the Ruskin Heights tornado struck south of Kansas City in 1957. It is also only the second F5 or EF5 tornado in Missouri history dating back to 1950. The May 2011 tornado was the deadliest tornado to hit the United States since 1947 - the seventh-deadliest single tornado in U.S. history, and 27th-deadliest in World history. As of June 25, officials reported that 157 people died from the tornado, with another killed by a lightning strike during cleanup operations the next day. Wikipedia
Wow, Just north of Houston something broke through the cap to what looks like over 40K Feet. We have rain....

At 643 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated two
strong thunderstorms rapidly developing near The Woodlands and
Tomball... moving northwest at 5 mph.

One half inch diameter hail... winds greater than 40 mph... are
possible with this storm.

Heavy downpours with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
likely with these storms.

Locations in the path of this storm include... Tomball... The
Woodlands... Stagecoach and Pinehurst.

Gusty winds may cause unsecured small objects such as trash cans to
blow around. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure or non-convertible
automobile until this storm has passed.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:

You cannot draw direct conclusion from the tornado amount to the theory of AGW.


In terms of destruction, intensity and location this years tornado season has been remarkable.

Along with the Tri-State Tornado and the 1896 St. Louis-East St. Louis tornado, it ranks as one of Missouri's and America's deadliest tornadoes and is likely to be the costliest; the cost to rebuild Joplin could reach $3 billion.[4][5] It was the first F5 or EF5 tornado in Missouri since the Ruskin Heights tornado struck south of Kansas City in 1957. It is also only the second F5 or EF5 tornado in Missouri history dating back to 1950. The May 2011 tornado was the deadliest tornado to hit the United States since 1947 - the seventh-deadliest single tornado in U.S. history, and 27th-deadliest in World history. As of June 25, officials reported that 157 people died from the tornado, with another killed by a lightning strike during cleanup operations the next day. Wikipedia


It has been a bad season to be sure, but can you draw the conclusions that you are simply from one season? Regrettably, my graph only goes to 2008 (NCDC seems to have stopped producing it as part of their annual report in succeeding years, for some reason), and I'm not sure if we have final numbers on what the number of F3-F5 tornadoes is so far this year. However, I would still think that the fifty-year record would be more telling than just what has happened this year.

Certainly number of F3-F5 tornadoes is a better measure than cost of damage and number of deaths, isn't it? I would imagine the latter will biased toward recent events being worse due to other reasons, population and urban expansion, to name a couple.

If there is a link between AGW and severe tornado events, why would we not see an increase in F3-F5 events over the last fifty years?


Shear has really fallen quite a bit today.



Still falling.
Quoting uptxcoast:
Wow, Just north of Houston something broke through the cap to what looks like over 40K Feet. We have rain....

At 643 PM CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated two
strong thunderstorms rapidly developing near The Woodlands and
Tomball... moving northwest at 5 mph.

One half inch diameter hail... winds greater than 40 mph... are
possible with this storm.

Heavy downpours with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
likely with these storms.

Locations in the path of this storm include... Tomball... The
Woodlands... Stagecoach and Pinehurst.

Gusty winds may cause unsecured small objects such as trash cans to
blow around. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure or non-convertible
automobile until this storm has passed.
Great news, looks like a slight weakness in high pressure or that it has moved northward a little?
Oh my the end is near! We have a broken line,i quess we are all doomed!
Quoting sirmaelstrom:


If there is a link between AGW and severe tornado events, why would we not see an increase in F3-F5 events over the last fifty years?

The Dice Dude, the Dice get loaded.


JUAN GONZALEZ: And Bill, you%u2019ve also %u2014 you also mention in your article what%u2019s happened in the past year in Pakistan and Australia and other parts of the world. Could you talk about that, as well?

BILL McKIBBEN: Flooding is probably, Juan, the biggest example of what we%u2019re doing. Warm air holds more water vapor than cold. On average, the earth%u2019s atmosphere is about four percent wetter than it was 30 years ago, which is an astonishingly large change in a basic physical parameter. What it does is load the dice for downpour and deluge and flooding, and one country after another has been crapping out in the last year, throwing snake eyes.

I mean, you saw the pictures from Queensland in Australia, because Queensland in Australia has a lot of white people and TV cameras. You didn%u2019t see similar pictures from Sri Lanka, from Vietnam, from the Philippines, from Brazil northeast of Rio, where they%u2019ve had similar kinds of megafloods, now Colombia. There were some pictures from Pakistan, because it was such an epic event. There were, last year, last summer, about a quarter of that country under water. The Red Cross said in February that there were still four million homeless people from those floods in Pakistan. Of all the big things that have happened in Pakistan in the last year, the biggest one, by far, was that epic, biblical flood that came pouring down the Indus.

AMY GOODMAN
: Bill, in your piece, you go on to talk about, well, the connections you shouldn%u2019t make. And you say, "Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade %u2014 well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining?" And you go on with a series of questions. First, talk about the Amazon. This is always what is linked, raised, on those who are questioning climate change. You%u2019re talking about a drought in the Amazon, and you%u2019re talking about these massive floods. "Obviously there is no connection," they say. But talk about government policy under President Obama.

BILL McKIBBEN: Sure. First of all, just two connections. The atmosphere gets moister. That means that in some areas there%u2019s more evaporation, and hence more drought. And in other areas, that stuff is coming down.

Now, to President Obama, look, the guy has done a better job on climate change than George Bush. That%u2019s not an enormous claim to make, but, you know, happily, he%u2019s doing something. He%u2019s also doing a lot of things that are very, very damaging. He has opened this vast swath of the Powder River Basin in Montana and Wyoming to coal mining. The early estimate is there%u2019s enough coal there to be at the equivalent of having 3,000 coal-fired power plants running for a year. His administration is currently considering allowing a permit for a huge pipeline across the center of the country that will run from Canada from the tar sands in Alberta down to refineries in Texas. That%u2019s the equivalent of lighting a fuse on the biggest carbon bomb on the planet.

So, we need the President and the rest of his administration to focus a lot harder on climate change. It%u2019s nice that they%u2019ve talked about green jobs, and so on and so forth, but we need them to understand that global warming right now is the most difficult problem that we face, and we can%u2019t do anything that will make it worse. The Congress, at the moment, is clearly preventing us from doing much that will make it better, but we%u2019ve got to do everything we can to engage that battle. That%u2019s what we%u2019re doing at 350.org now, and with some increasing success, I%u2019m happy to say. The movement itself, at least, is building. It%u2019s not big enough yet to defeat the fossil fuel industry, but we%u2019re getting larger.LINK

Almost 4th of July!
here is a big firework in red!!
Quoting help4u:
Oh my the end is near! We have a broken line,i quess we are all doomed!


Yea, just a minor line break. Nothing to see. Move along now don't hold up progress.

Yellowstone River
Click here for interactive river map

From Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks

The Yellowstone River originates in Wyoming and flows through Yellowstone National Park before entering Montana at Gardiner. From the park boundary to Livingston, the river flows north through Paradise Valley, flanked by the Absarokee Mountains on the east and the Gallatin Range on the west. It continues in a northeasterly direction from Livingston and meets up with the Missouri River just across the North Dakota border.

The Yellowstone has survived as one of the last, large, free flowing rivers in the continental United States. Lack of mainstem impoundments allows spring peak flows and fall and winter low flows to influence a unique ecosystem and aesthetic resource.

From the clear, coldwater cutthroat trout fishery in Yellowstone National Park to the warmer water habitat at its mouth, the river supports a variety of aquatic environments that remain relatively undisturbed.

The good trout water extends downstream from Yellowstone National Park all the way to the Columbus area. The nature of the river changes a bit over those 150 or so miles, but the fishing remains good with more cutthroats and rainbows in the upper portion of that stretch and more brown trout in the lower stretch.

The adjacent terrestrial environment, through most of the 550 Montana miles of river, is an impressive cottonwood-willow bottomland.

The river has also been a major factor in the settlement of southeastern Montana, and retains much cultural and historical significance.
The African Monsoon Trof is just crazy far north

Quoting uptxcoast:


Gusty winds may cause unsecured small objects such as trash cans to
blow around. Seek shelter in a sturdy structure or non-convertible
automobile until this storm has passed.

That's good news that you're getting rain........but trash cans blowing around. DEWEY.....where are you? This calls for a DoomCon raise. I'll have to do an emergency raise under clause 10.6 if you're not around, as per the rules, "for awhile".
Quoting Neapolitan:

Brought to you this week by ExxonMobil. If you can't make it to the Gulf, they'll bring the Gulf to you!
Ruptured pipeline sends oil coursing down the Yellowstone River

An ExxonMobil oil pipeline that ruptured beneath the Yellowstone River has fouled more than 150 miles of the waterway between Laurel and Miles City.

Exxon officials have not said what caused the leak, but in a morning press conference Saturday, Yellowstone County officials noted that the high level of the river, the speed of the water and quickly moving debris all may be factors.

The oil slick started just east of the Laurel Bridge late Friday night and by 9 a.m. Saturday had reached Worden. By about 3 p.m. it had reached the Myers Bridge in Hysham. The pipe itself connects Exxon's Silvertip Line — which brings crude from the oilfields in northern Wyoming — to the Billings refinery.

At various points along the Yellowstone, strings and pools of black and red-brown crude collected in eddies and clung to plant life and riverbanks. White pelicans sitting on floating logs in the morning sun Saturday were ringed with brown slurry.

"It's going to be a heck of a cleanup," said Duane Winslow, Yellowstone County director of disaster and emergency services.

Article...
My Uncle owned an Esso station in NOLA in the 50& 60s. He said their products were great and he sold Esso Extra for 32 cents a gallon. That was in the good old days before oil spills and wars over oil. He even gave away free Esso street maps.
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
If there is a link between AGW and severe tornado events, why would we not see an increase in F3-F5 events over the last fifty years?

Perhaps there has been, but our current metric is insufficient.

Almost all other weather phenomena can be measured objectively and absolutely: for temperature, we measure with thermometers; for precipitation, we can measure snow depth or rainfall; for tropical cyclones we can measure wind speed and barometric pressure; for droughts, we can measure days between precipitation and soil dryness; and so on. But tornado strength is measured solely by subjective interpretations of observed damage. While the guidelines for determining Fujita Scale strength have been improved over the years, they are still left to an individual storm assessment team, if not a lone assessor, meaning there is room for subjectivity. That is, what I determine to be an EF-3 you may determine to be an EF-2, or vice versa.

Complicating matters, of course, is the fact that building codes and methods have improved dramatically over the years; a weaker tornado nowadays that may be dismissed as an EF-1 after going through a modern subdivision could easily have destroyed a home built to mid-century construction standards, and thus been labelled an F-2 or stronger.

And still further complicating matters is the fact that the original Fujita scale wasn't developed until the early 1970s, meaning that the F-numbers for the first 23 or 24 years on your chart were determined by a small handful of people going through old newspaper articles, photos, and storm reports. Not to take anything away from their diligence and effort, but that is a methodology definitely prone to error; it's like measuring the voltage of lightning by looking at old photographs of thunderstorms.

At any rate, I'd like to see that chart with the 2009-2011 storms added. I'd also like to see it with the full year included, and not just March through August, as there have been literally hundreds of tornadoes that are not accounted for on it.
Quoting Hurrykane:
The African Monsoon Trof is just crazy far north

Which means ?
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
here is a big firework in red!!


Mother nature's finest.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which means ?


If it persists, we could be looking at less SAL during the heart of the season, leading to a more active Cape Verde season.

Also, a higher than normal monsoon trough over Africa allows tropical waves to reach higher latitudes, and thus makes development more likely in the Atlantic since waves don't go into the Pacific.
№ 806

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
The Dice Dude, the Dice get loaded.


Hypothetically they do, but where is the long term observational evidence?

I didn't see anything specific to tornadoes in this post, unless I missed it, so I'll assume you're changing the discussion to other types of severe weather events and links to AGW. If one is going to attribute a severe weather phenomenon to AGW, there should be a way to demonstrate with long-term actual observations that the event in question is occurring more often, overall average occurrences are progressively worse etc. Shouldn't attribution be limited to phenomena for which a corroborating long-term observational record shows a correlation with recent warming?

In fact, I'm not even necessarily saying that there is no chance that, assuming recent warming continues, that some severe weather types (including tornadoes) may yet increase and begin to show a link with AGW. It's just that, as of yet, the link doesn't seem to exist with tornadoes and it seems at best premature, at worst misleading, to suggest that it does.

I won't begin to imply that, off the top of my head, I can recall what the long term trend in all severe weather events are over the last fifty years or so, and thusly how they correlate to AGW. But, if you want to make a case that some of the events mentioned in your link are AGW-linked, a chart of some long-term correlation to warming will be more convincing to me than simply referring to specific and recent events, even record-setting ones.
Quoting KoritheMan:


If it persists, we could be looking at less SAL during the heart of the season, leading to a more active Cape Verde season.

Also, a higher than normal monsoon trough over Africa allows tropical waves to reach higher latitudes, and thus makes development more likely in the Atlantic since waves don't go into the Pacific.
Thank you Kori. It seems almost impossible to get an answer sometimes. We are not all weather experts :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

fiery looking
Quoting Hurrykane:
The African Monsoon Trof is just crazy far north





The Caribbean & the states are going to get it this year. High pressure dominates.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thank you Kori. It seems almost impossible to get an answer sometimes. We are not all weather experts :)


Thanks for the compliment, Laurie, but I'm no expert either. :P

And yeah, it can definitely be difficult to get an answer sometimes. I wouldn't take it personally -- some people probably just don't know.
№ 813
Quoting Neapolitan:

Perhaps there has been, but our current metric is insufficient.

Almost all other weather phenomena can be measured objectively and absolutely: for temperature, we measure with thermometers; for precipitation, we can measure snow depth or rainfall; for tropical cyclones we can measure wind speed and barometric pressure; for droughts, we can measure days between precipitation and soil dryness; and so on. But tornado strength is measured solely by subjective interpretations of observed damage. While the guidelines for determining Fujita Scale strength have been improved over the years, they are still left to an individual storm assessment team, if not a lone assessor, meaning there is room for subjectivity. That is, what I determine to be an EF-3 you may determine to be an EF-2, or vice versa.

Complicating matters, of course, is the fact that building codes and methods have improved dramatically over the years; a weaker tornado nowadays that may be dismissed as an EF-1 after going through a modern subdivision could easily have destroyed a home built to mid-century construction standards, and thus been labelled an F-2 or stronger.

And still further complicating matters is the fact that the original Fujita scale wasn't developed until the early 1970s, meaning that the F-numbers for the first 23 or 24 years on your chart were determined by a small handful of people going through old newspaper articles, photos, and storm reports. Not to take anything away from their diligence and effort, but that is a methodology definitely prone to error; it's like measuring the voltage of lightning by looking at old photographs of thunderstorms.

At any rate, I'd like to see that chart with the 2009-2011 storms added. I'd also like to see it with the full year included, and not just March through August, as there have been literally hundreds of tornadoes that are not accounted for on it.


I'll concede that this is a good point; there is uncertainty in the scale/evaluation of events. I would still like to see some observational evidence of a link to AGW, before I would concede that there is one. I think, at best, we simply don't have enough actual evidence to say that there is.

I would also like to see the 2009-2011 data, but I haven't been able to find it; I also imagine that the 2011 data is still preliminary anyway.

I'm not sure if I agree that "out-of-season" (outside of the March-August period) is significant, as I would think there is a good reason why even the NCDC seems to focus on those months. I would like to find the numbers for the full years myself, but I have been unable to.

* * *

Added:

I did find this older graph which doesn't specifically list "March-August" in the caption, but I'm not sure if it is actually full-year data. I've been meaning to check, but I haven't had the time.
Quoting TomTaylor:
that's for sure. And they put up a 0%...don't really understand the reasoning behind that

I think you're being trolled. LOL
StormwatcherCI, are you getting any rain in Cayman this evening? Looks like it
826. ackee
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




The Caribbean & the states are going to get it this year. High pressure dominates.

last year TROF turn most storms north of the carrib and USA guess we see if HIGH we contine to rule has the seasons gets going
Quoting superpete:
StormwatcherCI, are you getting any rain in Cayman this evening? Looks like it
LOL. If you go by looks we would be flooding. Not a drop. Yet.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:




The Caribbean & the states are going to get it this year. High pressure dominates.

and with trof riding high stronger cyclonic turning coming off higher than normal will pretty well lead to dev everytime something comes off we wait watch see
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
That looks like a monster coming off now. Waves are coming off one right after the other now.
832. JLPR2
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


That's quite a blob.
here is a still water vapour enhanced image as of 920 pm edt of complete disk northern hemisphere

Quoting Neapolitan:

Perhaps there has been, but our current metric is insufficient.

Almost all other weather phenomena can be measured objectively and absolutely: for temperature, we measure with thermometers; for precipitation, we can measure snow depth or rainfall; for tropical cyclones we can measure wind speed and barometric pressure; for droughts, we can measure days between precipitation and soil dryness; and so on. But tornado strength is measured solely by subjective interpretations of observed damage. While the guidelines for determining Fujita Scale strength have been improved over the years, they are still left to an individual storm assessment team, if not a lone assessor, meaning there is room for subjectivity. That is, what I determine to be an EF-3 you may determine to be an EF-2, or vice versa.

Complicating matters, of course, is the fact that building codes and methods have improved dramatically over the years; a weaker tornado nowadays that may be dismissed as an EF-1 after going through a modern subdivision could easily have destroyed a home built to mid-century construction standards, and thus been labelled an F-2 or stronger.

And still further complicating matters is the fact that the original Fujita scale wasn't developed until the early 1970s, meaning that the F-numbers for the first 23 or 24 years on your chart were determined by a small handful of people going through old newspaper articles, photos, and storm reports. Not to take anything away from their diligence and effort, but that is a methodology definitely prone to error; it's like measuring the voltage of lightning by looking at old photographs of thunderstorms.

At any rate, I'd like to see that chart with the 2009-2011 storms added. I'd also like to see it with the full year included, and not just March through August, as there have been literally hundreds of tornadoes that are not accounted for on it.


That is the best written, most well thought out, most concisely presented post I have seen here in a loooong time.
Quoting TomTaylor:
x
What happened to your post ? I had just gotten to When and was going to ask where the rest of it was.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


heat is on


And humidity, UGH!!! I fear that this is going to be another very humid summer for Fargo, like last year.
839. skook
Vivid lightning southwest of Tampa tonight, Really an awe inspiring show.
Hmmmm.... this sounds interesting...

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHARP UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS SEABOARD
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WEST ATLC
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM 30N76W TO 26N81W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 70 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN IS BRINGING SIMILAR CONVECTION INTO THE ATLC S OF 23N
BETWEEN 60W-72W. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WILL SPLIT AND TRACK NW ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB
AND 1026 MB HIGHS NEAR 36N49W AND 35N32W RESPECTIVELY.

I know pple were mentioning this earlier today. Looks like we will actually have some tropical style wx over the next few days... I still associate this kind of Twave activity with June, though.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Complicating matters, of course, is the fact that building codes and methods have improved dramatically over the years; a weaker tornado nowadays that may be dismissed as an EF-1 after going through a modern subdivision could easily have destroyed a home built to mid-century construction standards, and thus been labelled an F-2 or stronger.


Very true. I do CAD work (Industrial and Residential) as well as construction. I live in Florida, so I'm not quite sure about code in the tornado zones, but I assume they have a serious focus on wind/ uplift loads as rigorous (if not more so) than hurricane susceptible zones.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


MAJOR BLOBBAGE ALERT!

What's the DOOMCON level? :-)
Quoting sirmaelstrom:
I didn't see anything specific to tornadoes in this post, unless I missed it

Here is more on tornadoes... this article covers the specific topic of tornadoes and climate change quiet good. Link

Tornadoes, extreme weather, and climate change
The Effect of Climate Change on Tornado Frequency and Magnitude: “There is an obvious increase in tornado frequency between 1950-1999. This could be due to increased detection. Also this could be due to changing climatic conditions.”

For decades, scientists have predicted that if we kept pouring increasing amounts of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we would change the climate. They specifically predicted that that many key aspects of the weather would become more extreme — more extreme heat waves, more intense droughts, and stronger deluges.

As far back as 1995, analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (led by Tom Karl) showed that over the course of the 20th century, the United States had suffered a statistically significant increase in a variety of extreme weather events, the very ones you would expect from global warming, such as more — and more intense — precipitation. That analysis concluded the chances were only “5 to 10 percent” this increase was due to factors other than global warming, such as “natural climate variability.” And since 1995, the climate has gotten measurably more extreme.

Multiple scientific studies find that indeed the weather has become more extreme, as expected






The dice get loaded, instead of just 1-6 you have 1-7 or more chances to get extreme events.

Quoting Jeff Masters:
As the Earth gets warmer and more moisture gets absorbed into the atmosphere, we are steadily loading the dice in favor of more extreme storms in all seasons, capable of causing greater impacts on society.


And that's exactly what's happening

Strongest storm in Southwestern U.S. history
The most powerful low pressure system in 140 years of record keeping swept through the Southwest U.S. on January 20 - 21, 2010, bringing deadly flooding, tornadoes, hail, hurricane force winds, and blizzard conditions.
Link



Quoting sirmaelstrom:
But, if you want to make a case that some of the events mentioned in your link are AGW-linked, a chart of some long-term correlation to warming will be more convincing to me than simply referring to specific and recent events, even record-setting ones.


Sure.

Storm Warnings: Extreme Weather Is a Product of Climate Change

More violent and frequent storms, once merely a prediction of climate models, are now a matter of observation. Part 1 of a three-part series

"Now we can make the statement that particular events would not have happened the same way without global warming," says Kevin Trenberth, head of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colo. Link


Global Warming and the Science of Extreme Weather

How rising temperatures change weather and produce fiercer, more frequent storms. Second of a three-part series
Link
Good evening....Is the tropical atlantic SST's about as warm as they were in 2005 // 2008??
Hmmm.... haven't seen any SST / TCHP comparisons for a while....
Also noting via NHC / TAFB's new gridded forecasts that the high pressure over the GoM looks set to moderate over the next few [5] days..
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hmmm.... haven't seen any SST / TCHP comparisons for a while....
Me either.
All images below are from July 1 of the presented years:

2011



2008



2005

Quoting KoritheMan:
All images below are from July 1 of the presented years:

2011



2008



2005

Thank you.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Thank you.


For future reference, go here.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
LOL. If you go by looks we would be flooding. Not a drop. Yet.

Thanks for that, traveling just now and was wondering how the lawn was doing at home!
TYVM....

Looks like TCHP is down from both 2008 and 2005.... not sure if that's not because of the recent Twave activity, though.
new update map!!
№ 843

Concerning tornadoes increasing overall:

I think observation bias is significant when considering weaker tornadoes; certainly we would have missed many F0 and F1 tornadoes in the past, and the F0-F1 tornadoes are the only categories we really see an increase in. F2-F5 tornadoes would have been less likely to be missed and haven't seen an increase; in fact, the trend of these seem to be slightly negative over the last fifty years.

* * *

I haven't read through the other links yet (I think I've seen them before though); however, what I would be looking for in attribution is long-term observational evidence. As I said before, record events are less convincing--as the observational period continues to get longer, new records are going to happen. As an example, if there is a relationship of floods to AGW, we should be able to see a correlating increase in overall precipitation, I would think. Similarly with severe thunderstorms, hurricanes, etc.

If these events have become more likely, as is hypothesized, shouldn't there be observational long term evidence in frequency? I believe any time a claim is implied that a particular weather event is linked to AGW, some form of long-term evidence should be given that cannot be explained by other means.
SST anomaly's as of 6/30/11.
Full size image
Link

Quoting BahaHurican:
TYVM....

Looks like TCHP is down from both 2008 and 2005.... not sure if that's not because of the recent Twave activity, though.


Tropical waves would not have a substantial net cooling effect. In fact, they would barely have any.
Quoting superpete:

Thanks for that, traveling just now and was wondering how the lawn was doing at home!
Lawn is greener than it was but still a ways to go.
UPDATES on the Scariest Graphs you will ever see (from Remote Sensing Systems: MSU and AMSU channels) They are all here. This one is my favorite..the way enso creates patterns.

I think we will have a busy year...Ive read more landfalls and that with the gulf of guinea being so cool.. the ITCZ may move more north over africa producing more stronger tropical waves
Phoenix sets record heat for day at 118 degrees

About 4,000 homes in the metropolitan Phoenix area are without power -- and air-conditioning -- on a record-shattering day of heat in one of the nation's hottest cities.

Phoenix hit a high temperature of 118 degrees on Saturday, topping a 10-year-old record of 116 degrees for the date.

The National Weather Service say clouds from monsoon activity likely kept the area from reaching 120 degrees, but they say it's still the city's hottest day so far this year.

The monsoon brought wind gusts that toppled power lines and knocked out electricity to homes in Phoenix suburbs.
- - - - -
Ouch...
Quoting Hurrykane:
The African Monsoon Trof is just crazy far north

It's extratropical lol

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which means ?
lots...

For one, it means more rain over the sahel...if the monsoon trough were further south it would mean less rain over the sahel. More rain over the sahel means the ground is wetter. When the ground is wetter, the soil weighs more and it is condensed or stuck together. Conversely, when soil is drier, the ground is looser and weighs less, and therefore dust is more easily picked up by the winds and blown out to sea. Therefore, rainfall over the sahel partially (wind speed is also a factor) dictates how much dust will be blown out into the Atlantic. The relative amount of dust over the Atlantic is very importnat because dust is notorious for its negative effects on tropical wave development since dust is typically associated with more shear and less moisture in the atmosphere. Therefore, when the monsoon trough is further north, there is usually more rain over the sahel, and therefore less dust available to blow out into he Atlantic and inhibit development.

More rain over the sahel also means more evapotranspiration (evaporation due to bodies of water such as a lake or puddle, and transpiration from plants. Transpiration is essentially the release of water vapor into the atmosphere...so its the same net effect as evaporation. Transpiration is released mainly through the stomata on the underside of leaves, but also trough stems and the other parts of a plant. When stomata open to allow co2 in, they let out some water vapor.) over the sahel. More evapotranspiration means more moisture in the atmosphere, which increases instability, lowers dew points making condensation easier, basically creating a more conducive environment for thunderstorms. Therefore this can be viewed as a positive feedback loop since increased rainfall over the sahel leads to increased evapotranspiration over the sahel which allows more thunderstorms, which once again allows more rain.

Also, when there is less rain over the sahel, it is typically hotter in the region due to less cloud cover, less cooling effect of rain, and the fact that when there is little moisture in the air and ground, the sun can heat up the atmosphere faster due to specific heat capacity of water. When its hotter than normal, dew points are raised and you need more moisture than you would at a lower temperature to allow condensation to occur.

Basically, these positive feedback loops mean that if the monsoon trough is positioned anomalously north (south), these feedback loops will continue to favor the monsoon trough being further north (south) which therefore causes the rain pattern to favor being north (south). As already mentioned, when the monsoon trough is furher north, less dust is available to blow out to sea and inhibit development.


One final thing about the monsoon trough being further north is what it implies. When the monsoon trough is further north than usual it typically implies a stronger temperature gradient between the Sahara and the Gulf of Guinea - the ocean region in the Atlantic that is to the south of the Sahara. The reason it implies a stronger temperature gradient is because a stronger temperature gradient causes the southerly winds from the Gulf of Guinea to be stronger (due to the stronger pressure gradient as a result of the stronger temperatres gradient) which pushes the region where S/SW winds meet NE winds (monsoon trough) further north.

Now, a stronger temperature gradient means a stronger pressure gradient, which means stronger winds (as already mentioned). The strength of these winds governs the strengh of the tropical waves. Stronger winds means stronger tropical waves. The stronger the tropical wave, the more likely it is to develop.

Also, the further north the monsoon trough is, the further north tropical waves exit from Africa. The further north the waves exit, the more vorticity they have due to the coriolis effect.


Anyways, sorry for the essay. I'm not trying to brag or show off, I just like running these exercises as it forces me to remember and I usually learn something new. Hopefully others can learn as well.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Phoenix sets record heat for day at 118 degrees

About 4,000 homes in the metropolitan Phoenix area are without power -- and air-conditioning -- on a record-shattering day of heat in one of the nation's hottest cities.

Phoenix hit a high temperature of 118 degrees on Saturday, topping a 10-year-old record of 116 degrees for the date.

The National Weather Service say clouds from monsoon activity likely kept the area from reaching 120 degrees, but they say it's still the city's hottest day so far this year.

The monsoon brought wind gusts that toppled power lines and knocked out electricity to homes in Phoenix suburbs.
- - - - -
Ouch...



I don't think we could make it without our AC. We didn't get that high today but broke a couple records none the less.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Tropical waves would not have a substantial net cooling effect. In fact, they would barely have any.
Was thinking a similar thing... not deep enough to have a serious impact... So surface temps pretty warm, but anything slowmoving not likely to have as much deep heat energy available as in other years....
Global and Planetary Change, doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.06.005


Recent melt rates of Canadian Arctic ice caps are the highest in four millennia
David Fishera, low asterisk, E-mail The Corresponding Author, E-mail The Corresponding Author, James Zhenga, David Burgessa, Christian Zdanowicza, Christophe Kinnardb, Martin Sharpc and Jocelyne Bourgeoisa

aGlaciology Section, Northern Division, Geological Survey of Canada, 601 Booth Street, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0E8, Canada
bCentro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Aridas-CEAZA, Casilla 599-Campus Andres Bello, Colina El Pino s/n, La Serena, Chile
cEarth and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2E3, Canada

(Received 3 January 2011; revised 12 June 2011; accepted 13 June 2011. Available online 30 June 2011.)
Abstract

There has been a rapid acceleration in ice-cap melt rates over the last few decades across the entire Canadian Arctic. Present melt rates exceed the past rates for many millennia. New shallow cores at old sites bring their melt series up-to-date. The melt-percentage series from the Devon Island and Agassiz (Ellesmere Island) ice caps are well correlated with the Devon net mass balance and show a large increase in melt since the middle 1990s. Arctic ice core melt series (latitude range of 67° to 81° N) show the last quarter century has seen the highest melt in two millennia and The Holocene-long Agassiz melt record shows the last 25 years has the highest melt in 4,200 years. The Agassiz melt rates since the middle 1990s resemble those of the early Holocene thermal maximum over 9,000 years ago.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S092181811100097X
This is from today's NWS discussion... Appears July 8-10 weekend could have some action in the Gulf??

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH GULF OF MEXICO DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. OVERALL GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET. MID WEEK AND BEYOND...SOME UNCERTAINTY IS THE
WILL BE THE IMPACT OF ANY TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO.
Baha~ This year the MDR might not hold as much heat potential but around the Bahamas..FL, the gulf coast is warmer.

Quoting TomTaylor:
The relative amount of dust over the Atlantic is very importnat because dust is notorious for its negative effects on tropical wave development since dust is typically associated with more shear and less moisture in the atmosphere.
Subsidence I can understand, but shear? How exactly would a Saharan dust storm be an indicator of vertical shear?
State Highs:
Shreveport 103°F
Natchitoches 102°F
Shreveport Downtown 102°F
Monroe 102°F
Barksdale AFB 101°F

State Lows:
Bastrop 68°F
Natchitoches 71°F
Ruston 71°F
Monroe 72°F
Barksdale AFB 73°F
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
This is from today's NWS discussion... Appears July 8-10 weekend could have some action in the Gulf??

THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST OVER THE
NORTH GULF OF MEXICO DURING MOST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS WITH SUBTLE
CHANGES TO THE ORIENTATION. OVERALL GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK...THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE HIGHER WINDS OVER SOME OF THE EASTERN
NEARSHORE WATERS DUE TO THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET. MID WEEK AND BEYOND...SOME UNCERTAINTY IS THE
WILL BE THE IMPACT OF ANY TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO.


The CMC has been developing that into a tropical storm that strikes Florida (though today's 12z run had it moving up through central Cuba and into South Carolina), but none of the other models have. And as we know, the CMC is prone to convective feedback errors, and thus often develops anything.

Quoting TomTaylor:
The relative amount of dust over the Atlantic is very importnat because dust is notorious for its negative effects on tropical wave development since dust is typically associated with more shear and less moisture in the atmosphere.
Subsidence I can understand, but shear? How exactly would a Saharan dust storm be an indicator of vertical shear?
Quoting KoritheMan:


The CMC has been developing that into a tropical storm that strikes Florida (though today's 12z run had it moving up through central Cuba and into South Carolina), but none of the other models have. And as we know, the CMC is prone to convective feedback errors, and thus often develops anything.


18z NOGAPS shows something similar.. but in 48 hours and much, much weaker, a invest at most.
Link

GFS and ECMWF show.. nada.
Quoting KoritheMan:


For future reference, go here.


Great link! Now I have 54 weather bookmarks ready for the first sign of 'mischief'.

Disturbances near the Lesser Antilles showing up nicely on the Atlantic MIMIC.

Quoting KoritheMan:

Subsidence I can understand, but shear? How exactly would a Saharan dust storm be an indicator of vertical shear?
not sure to be perfectly honest.

Read it somewhere. I'll look it up later maybe, but I'm watching a movie.
@ Kori... I dunno why in my mind I associate the dust and the shear.... How far upwards in the atmosphere does the SAL dust actually move? Maybe the dust requires wind conditions that contribute to / give rise to high wind shear.

Going to look up African easterly jet etc....
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's extratropical lol

lots...

For one, it means more rain over the sahel....


So basically if this continues we're hosed ??? LOL
UPDATE: Child killed, fierce storm surprises Wisconsin campers


GRANTSBURG, Wis. — A fierce thunderstorm swept through a normally rural Wisconsin county that was packed with holiday campers, toppling trees that killed an 11-year-old girl, blowing boats ashore and injuring more than three dozen people, officials said Saturday.
Quoting marknmelb:


So basically if this continues we're hosed ??? LOL
no not all

But it will do more to increase activity than decrease it
Quoting Neapolitan:
Phoenix sets record heat for day at 118 degrees

About 4,000 homes in the metropolitan Phoenix area are without power -- and air-conditioning -- on a record-shattering day of heat in one of the nation's hottest cities.

Phoenix hit a high temperature of 118 degrees on Saturday, topping a 10-year-old record of 116 degrees for the date.

The National Weather Service say clouds from monsoon activity likely kept the area from reaching 120 degrees, but they say it's still the city's hottest day so far this year.

The monsoon brought wind gusts that toppled power lines and knocked out electricity to homes in Phoenix suburbs.
- - - - -
Ouch...
I hope the good people of Phoenix looked in on their elderly neighbors. That is oppressive.
Had some awesome storms here in the Tampa Bay area. Despite talks of dry air completely cutting out storm chances here by forecasts. The PWAT remained at 1.9 inches, this combined with lots of heating, instability and sea breeze convergence led to powerful thunderstorms here. Picked up over an inch during the quick moving storm. Thousands of intense lighting strikes did a number on power lines tonight knocking my power out. Lighting seems to fry the power grid like once a week during the wet season here hahaha

Its has rained 9 days straight and over 13 inches of rain since the rain streak started. My kinda stuff :)

Hopefully this will be a sign of things to come in the weeks and months ahead in Florida. Even the "dry" days like today are eventful now.
Quoting Jedkins01:
Had some awesome storms here in the Tampa Bay area. Despite talks of dry air completely cutting out storm chances here by forecasts. The PWAT remained at 1.9 inches, this combined with lots of heating, instability and sea breeze convergence led to powerful thunderstorms here. Picked up over an inch during the quick moving storm. Thousands of intense lighting strikes did a number on power lines tonight knocking my power out. Lighting seems to fry the power grid like once a week during the wet season here hahaha

Its has rained 9 days straight and over 13 inches of rain since the rain streak started. My kinda stuff :)

Hopefully this will be a sign of things to come in the weeks and months ahead in Florida. Even the "dry" days like today are eventful now.


Same here in the east.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.UPDATE...
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER METRO PALM BEACH
LATE THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

UPDATE 2...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD BACK WEST INTO FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DRY TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


oops, lol. 3 1/2 inches of rain fell around West Palm this evening. I was hoping this trough was going to take over the east coast however, doesn't look like it will. Getting into the meat of the season and not liking the high set up.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Same here in the east.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1016 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011

.UPDATE...
PUT ISOLATED SHOWERS BACK IN THE FORECAST FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS TONIGHT...DUE TO ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER METRO PALM BEACH
LATE THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM EDT SAT JUL 2 2011/

UPDATE 2...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD BACK WEST INTO FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND WILL HELP TO KEEP THE
MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DRY TONIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.


oops, lol. 3 1/2 inches of rain fell around West Palm this evening. I was hoping this trough was going to take over the east coast however, doesn't look like it will. Getting into the meat of the season and not liking the high set up.


Yeah I here ya, but it doesn't mean we will get a hurricane. I just hope I don't have to hear about the word drought again for a very long time.

Next week we should get some deep tropic moisture surging again. Probably a southest flow this time though, which usually means 2 to 4 inches of rain and severe weather for us when a tropical wave moves through in a southeast flow.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What happened to your post ? I had just gotten to When and was going to ask where the rest of it was.
sorry, I hit the post button too soon, wanted to write more.

Post is up now though
Ah.... nice little rain shower getting sharted right now.... best kind of rain - overnight, and not too hard....

Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah.... nice little rain shower getting sharted right now.... best kind of rain - overnight, and not too hard....



& all that is coming my way, sounds pleasant.. hope the coastal showers hold together as they move in.

Some 00Z runs are out. CMC looks more like a gentle depression for FL (try not to look at the GOM toward the end of the run~ doom)..gfs bring FL rain.
Ya know, I'd really like to believe this. But I've seen it too many times lately to get excited. :/ Sigh.



Pretty complicated setup....

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS NE
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERING THE FAR W ATLC N OF 27N
W OF 73W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
28N74W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH AND GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF
LINE FROM S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE ALONG 28N76W TO BEYOND
32N68W. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS
NEAR 24N75W SE ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AMPLIFYING
AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N56W JUST E OF THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 29N69W. THIS
UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N57W TO 18N60W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM FROM 18N60W
TO 27N66W. THE UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
27N50W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 54W-59W. THE ATLC E OF 70W IS
DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1027 MB HIGHS
N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC UNDER
FAIR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A CENTRAL ATLC TROPICAL WAVE
WILL SPLIT FROM THE WAVE AND MOVE NW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS
THROUGH SUN NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MON AND TUE
AND THEN IN THE VICINITY OF THE NW BAHAMAS WED AND THU.
THE
CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW ACROSS THE N TROPICAL N
ATLC AND NE CARIBBEAN SEA MON THROUGH THU. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WED NIGHT INTO THU.

Looks like that Twave split will take its own sweet slow time getting to SE FL....
AtHome, if that's for next weekend, it may come true in some form or other. There seems to be a strong expectation for this high of doom to break down by then....
Quoting BahaHurican:
AtHome, if that's for next weekend, it may come true in some form or other. There seems to be a strong expectation for this high of doom to break down by then....


That would be nice. Hopefully as you say it'll at least bring some rains to some of these parched areas. Western Louisiana seems to be in the same boat Texas is in.
Looks like NOGAPS may be thinking the same thing. With something going into SE LA at the same time.But I can't tell if there's any rain with it or not. They won't let me post a pic. Lol Link


Quoting KoritheMan:

Subsidence I can understand, but shear? How exactly would a Saharan dust storm be an indicator of vertical shear?
Well after doing some research, here's a brief list of the effects of the Saharan Air Layer on tropical cyclones

Pros:
1. Jenkins et al. (2008) found that dust can serve as condensation nuclei, effectively enhancing convection in outer rain bands of tropical storms

Cons
1. Dunion and Velden (2004) found the SAL negatively impacts tropical cyclones in three ways. 1. It enhances the low to mid level African Easterly Jet, increasing vertical wind shear. 2. It consists of dry air which promote downdrafts in thunderstorms. 3. It is associated with a stronger trade wind inversion (inversion is around 850mb).
2. Wong and Dessler (2005) found that it lifted the LCL (Lifted Condensation Level) and LFC (Level of Free Convection), effectively inhibiting deep convection.
3. Evan et al. (2006) and later Zhang et al. (2007) both ran statistical studies indicating SAL has a negative impact on tropical cyclones.

Most sites listed the Saharan Air Layer as a well mixed, warm, dry, dusty air layer between 850-500mb, capped below by the trade inversion. To sum up the findings above, SAL can help tc intensification by providing condensation nuclei, however, it can hamper intensification by providing a dry air mass which reduces instability and promotes downdrafts, increasing local wind shear due to the AEJ, and strengthening the trade wind inversion.

For some heavy reading, you can check out the studies listed, but I've already pretty much summarized the interesting parts. For some lighter reading which will echo what I just said

Hurricane Research Division on SAL
CIMSS on SAL
Quoting Skyepony:
Baha~ This year the MDR might not hold as much heat potential but around the Bahamas..FL, the gulf coast is warmer.
still a month to go plenty of time to warm up
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


(Don't worry about that last sentence; I'm sure it;s just another coincidence.)


No Need to Worry: Record Tornadoes, Raging Fires, Mega Floods, & Crop-Killing Droughts Are NOT What Climatologists Predicted

This op-ed originally appeared in the Washington Post.

Caution: It is vitally important not to make connections. When you see pictures of rubble like this week’s shots from Joplin, Mo., you should not wonder: Is this somehow related to the tornado outbreak three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, Ala., or the enormous outbreak a couple of weeks before that (which, together, comprised the most active April for tornadoes in U.S. history). No, that doesn’t mean a thing.

It is far better to think of these as isolated, unpredictable, discrete events. It is not advisable to try to connect them in your mind with, say, the fires burning across Texas — fires that have burned more of America at this point this year than any wildfires have in previous years. Texas, and adjoining parts of Oklahoma and New Mexico, are drier than they’ve ever been — the drought is worse than that of the Dust Bowl. But do not wonder if they’re somehow connected.

If you did wonder, you see, you would also have to wonder about whether this year’s record snowfalls and rainfalls across the Midwest — resulting in record flooding along the Mississippi — could somehow be related. And then you might find your thoughts wandering to, oh, global warming, and to the fact that climatologists have been predicting for years that as we flood the atmosphere with carbon we will also start both drying and flooding the planet, since warm air holds more water vapor than cold air.

It’s far smarter to repeat to yourself the comforting mantra that no single weather event can ever be directly tied to climate change. There have been tornadoes before, and floods — that’s the important thing. Just be careful to make sure you don’t let yourself wonder why all these record-breaking events are happening in such proximity — that is, why there have been unprecedented megafloods in Australia, New Zealand and Pakistan in the past year. Why it’s just now that the Arctic has melted for the first time in thousands of years. No, better to focus on the immediate casualties, watch the videotape from the store cameras as the shelves are blown over. Look at the news anchorman standing in his waders in the rising river as the water approaches his chest.

Because if you asked yourself what it meant that the Amazon has just come through its second hundred-year drought in the past five years, or that the pine forests across the western part of this continent have been obliterated by a beetle in the past decade — well, you might have to ask other questions. Such as: Should President Obama really just have opened a huge swath of Wyoming to new coal mining? Should Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sign a permit this summer allowing a huge new pipeline to carry oil from the tar sands of Alberta? You might also have to ask yourself: Do we have a bigger problem than $4-a-gallon gasoline?

Better to join with the U.S. House of Representatives, which voted 240 to 184 this spring to defeat a resolution saying simply that “climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for public health and welfare.” Propose your own physics; ignore physics altogether. Just don’t start asking yourself whether there might be some relation among last year’s failed grain harvest from the Russian heat wave, and Queensland’s failed grain harvest from its record flood, and France’s and Germany’s current drought-related crop failures, and the death of the winter wheat crop in Texas, and the inability of Midwestern farmers to get corn planted in their sodden fields. Surely the record food prices are just freak outliers, not signs of anything systemic.

It’s very important to stay calm. If you got upset about any of this, you might forget how important it is not to disrupt the record profits of our fossil fuel companies. If worst ever did come to worst, it’s reassuring to remember what the U.S. Chamber of Commerce told the Environmental Protection Agency in a recent filing: that there’s no need to worry because “populations can acclimatize to warmer climates via a range of behavioral, physiological, and technological adaptations.” I’m pretty sure that’s what residents are telling themselves in Joplin today.

Bill McKibben is founder of the global climate campaign 350.org and a distinguished scholar at Middlebury College in Vermont. LINK
The human groundhog made a curious forecast this year.

This is what he said ....

"Forget seeing his shadow or not, you know it's a bad when they have to drag poor little Punxsutawney Phil from his burrow or box. This leads me to believe that many of his human counterparts will be hiding in theirs in the coming year, for reasons as yet unspecified." - [Groundhog Day Feb. 2, 2011]

There is only one weather phenomena that causes men to hide underground in their burrows or boxes.

Joplin, Missouri has called itself the lead capital of the world.

How much of that lead do you suppose, is responsible for the deaths of how many people on this planet?

When the earth screams in rage against men, will she not also scream for her greatest achievement?

She presents a conundrum of sorts, for she points to a place where men have hurt one another, to perhaps teach us a lesson of what is to come.
The UKMET has a bit of a low looks like in the NE Caribbean. Rain headed Baha's way.

Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Looks like NOGAPS may be thinking the same thing. With something going into SE LA at the same time.But I can't tell if there's any rain with it or not. They won't let me post a pic. Lol Link


25kt low to ride up the Fla. SC/NC coast.

GFS show's nothing.
Quoting TomTaylor:
It's extratropical lol

lots...

For one, it means more rain over the sahel...if the monsoon trough were further south it would mean less rain over the sahel. More rain over the sahel means the ground is wetter. When the ground is wetter, the soil weighs more and it is condensed or stuck together. Conversely, when soil is drier, the ground is looser and weighs less, and therefore dust is more easily picked up by the winds and blown out to sea. Therefore, rainfall over the sahel partially (wind speed is also a factor) dictates how much dust will be blown out into the Atlantic. The relative amount of dust over the Atlantic is very importnat because dust is notorious for its negative effects on tropical wave development since dust is typically associated with more shear and less moisture in the atmosphere. Therefore, when the monsoon trough is further north, there is usually more rain over the sahel, and therefore less dust available to blow out into he Atlantic and inhibit development.

More rain over the sahel also means more evapotranspiration (evaporation due to bodies of water such as a lake or puddle, and transpiration from plants. Transpiration is essentially the release of water vapor into the atmosphere...so its the same net effect as evaporation. Transpiration is released mainly through the stomata on the underside of leaves, but also trough stems and the other parts of a plant. When stomata open to allow co2 in, they let out some water vapor.) over the sahel. More evapotranspiration means more moisture in the atmosphere, which increases instability, lowers dew points making condensation easier, basically creating a more conducive environment for thunderstorms. Therefore this can be viewed as a positive feedback loop since increased rainfall over the sahel leads to increased evapotranspiration over the sahel which allows more thunderstorms, which once again allows more rain.

Also, when there is less rain over the sahel, it is typically hotter in the region due to less cloud cover, less cooling effect of rain, and the fact that when there is little moisture in the air and ground, the sun can heat up the atmosphere faster due to specific heat capacity of water. When its hotter than normal, dew points are raised and you need more moisture than you would at a lower temperature to allow condensation to occur.

Basically, these positive feedback loops mean that if the monsoon trough is positioned anomalously north (south), these feedback loops will continue to favor the monsoon trough being further north (south) which therefore causes the rain pattern to favor being north (south). As already mentioned, when the monsoon trough is furher north, less dust is available to blow out to sea and inhibit development.


One final thing about the monsoon trough being further north is what it implies. When the monsoon trough is further north than usual it typically implies a stronger temperature gradient between the Sahara and the Gulf of Guinea - the ocean region in the Atlantic that is to the south of the Sahara. The reason it implies a stronger temperature gradient is because a stronger temperature gradient causes the southerly winds from the Gulf of Guinea to be stronger (due to the stronger pressure gradient as a result of the stronger temperatres gradient) which pushes the region where S/SW winds meet NE winds (monsoon trough) further north.

Now, a stronger temperature gradient means a stronger pressure gradient, which means stronger winds (as already mentioned). The strength of these winds governs the strengh of the tropical waves. Stronger winds means stronger tropical waves. The stronger the tropical wave, the more likely it is to develop.

Also, the further north the monsoon trough is, the further north tropical waves exit from Africa. The further north the waves exit, the more vorticity they have due to the coriolis effect.


Anyways, sorry for the essay. I'm not trying to brag or show off, I just like running these exercises as it forces me to remember and I usually learn something new. Hopefully others can learn as well.

Thanks, this was very insightful




Wisconsin storms leave 3 dead, 39 injured

(CNN) -- Emergency officials sifted through damage and debris scattered across roadways Saturday after a line of fast-moving storms and high winds swept through northwestern Wisconsin the night before, leaving at least one person dead and 39 others injured.

Three people were critically injured and a second person died, though not as a result of the storm, Burnett County spokeswoman Dawn Sargent said.

The storms also contributed to "widespread power outages" in a county with a population that normally swells to more than 80,000 people during the Fourth of July weekend.

Burnett County's typical population is about 17,000.

"We ask nonresidents to avoid the area because of the road closures and the presence of emergency crews trying to clear debris from the roadways," Sargent added.

Roughly three-quarters of the county have been affected, while its northern sections were more heavily hit.

The towns of Grantsburg, Washburn, Danbury and Web Lake were among the hardest-hit areas, said Wisconsin's emergency management spokeswoman Rhonda Reynolds.

"Last night we were working, and at about 7 o'clock the winds really picked up," said Carinna Coy, an employee at T-Dawgs restaurant in Grantsburg. "From what we could see today, there's a lot of trees that tipped over and a lot of roads that are closed.

"Main Street is a mess," she added.

A hardware store owner in neighboring Washburn described gusty winds, heavy rains and lightning that preceded power outages.

"Power's been out in parts of Washburn for most of the day, though they say that hopefully it'll be back soon," Nate Swiston of Washburn Hardware said.

An aerial survey of the region revealed storm damage to homes and downed trees throughout the region.

Officials said Saturday that they are focused on looking for trapped residents and distributing food, water and emergency medical supplies.

The American Red Cross also opened a meals station for the general public at the Grantsburg Middle School, Sargent said. Link
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


It's so hot in Texas right now, the squirrels are clearing areas in the grass so they can cool their bodies against the dirt! Link
Are all of NOAA's webpages down or is it just me. I can't get NWS NHC NOAA SPC etc.
Quoting texwarhawk:
Are all of NOAA's webpages down or is it just me. I can't get NWS NHC NOAA SPC etc.


It's working for me. Keep trying. Good luck. :)
Scorching hot weather set to continue across much of US
Temperatures expected to be above 100 in California, Illinois and Mississippi


VIDEO
The scorching hot weather was expected to continue in the West on Sunday — after reaching 118 degrees in Phoenix — and other parts of the U.S. from Illinois to the lower Mississippi Valley.

The temperature in Phoenix broke a 10-year record of 116 for the city, where about 4,000 homes in the metropolitan area were without power — and air-conditioning — after a monsoon brought wind gusts that toppled power lines.

Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio ordered thousands of bags of ice to the county's outdoor jails, saying inmates could have as much as they want and for any use — including to sit on.

Santa Barbara County planned cooling centers in libraries, senior centers and other community facilities in seven cities.

The high temperatures were expected to continue Sunday, remaining well into the 100s, with some areas of the Southwest pushing above 110 degrees, according to The Associated Press. Human body temperature is about 98 degrees.

The National Weather Service issued heat advisories for the San Francisco Bay area and for parts of Illinois and Missouri.

The Bay area notice warned the elderly, the very young and the infirm to avoid spending too much time outdoors.

"Individuals who fall into this categoy should be especially careful by drinking plenty of water and seeking a cooler location for the day if no air conditioning is available in your living quarters," it said.

The advisory was due to be in effect from 12 p.m. to 9 p.m. PT Sunday, with temperatures expected to range from the 90s to 105.

The Illinois/Missouri heat advisory was due to be in effect until 7 p.m. CT. Temperatures were expected to reach about 100 for the fourth straight day, which the NWS said would result in a greater chance of heat-related illness because of the cumulative effect.

Over 120 in Death Valley
The Weather Channel reported that temperatures could be up to 15 degrees above average in parts of the Southwest, with highs during the day from the 90s across central and eastern Montana to more than 120 degrees in California's Death Valley.

Temperatures were expected to range from the upper 90s to more than 100 degrees from the lower Mississippi Valley to the southern Plains, the Weather Channel said.

It warned isolated thunderstorms would begin to develop from the mountains of Southern California to parts of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Arizona, where a large wildfire has been burning for days, threatening the Los Alamos nuclear laboratory.

"A few of these storms could produce damaging wind gusts in Arizona. Unfortunately, lightning could ignite more fires," Mark Ressler, lead meteorologist at the Weather Channel, said.

He also said thunderstorms were expected to hit Montana and "could turn severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail."
Good morning or good day, where-ever you might be, as the sun or darkness is near you.

It's ya'lls favorite coffee-caster here, to report that MAYBE Jedkins MIGHT be right; maybe some kinda semblance of rain will be returning to Fla. Well, there's dew in the mornings...I suppose that's a start.
Quoting aquak9:
Good morning or good day, where-ever you might be, as the sun or darkness is near you.

It's ya'lls favorite coffee-caster here, to report that MAYBE Jedkins MIGHT be right; maybe some kinda semblance of rain will be returning to Fla. Well, there's dew in the mornings...I suppose that's a start.

Good morning back at ya. Here in Naples, it's rained at least a little every day for the last week. We're still far below normal, but parts of the county have seen three and four inches since last weekend, so lawns suddenly no longer look like patches of brown sand.

Good luck to you northerners...
Morning Aquak, coffee is really good this morning! Fireworks got rained out last night :(
Morning aqua, et al.....

I haven't had coffee yet, but it seems like a good day due to the fact that I finally dozed off last night to the sound of rain.... lol
hi splash, ahven't seen you in a while. I bet middle Fla is a madhouse of traffic about now.

Nea- I DID mow last weekend, it was so hot. But I thought, this is like the southern version of shoveling snow? Luckily we lawn-mowin' folks don't hafta do it every 8 hours, and the grass does not make it impossible to drive.

Would LOVE to hear of more rain for anywhere in Fla, Texas too. 3-4 inches in a week is GREAT.
I keep thinking about last year, with that massive heat wave in Russia and the catastrophic flood in Pakistan.... seems like we just changed continents....

At least it seems a break may finally be coming for TX. I hope they get some rain over the worst areas this week....
no more rain for this part of florida please ecen. mosquitos are vicious. sure sign we've had enough
use bug spray, islander. Malaria, eastern equine, west nile- they are real. Believe me.

baha- I'd really like to see TX get rain, that whle situation is scary.





Looks like that trough is still pushing south... they keep pushing back the dissipation time, too.

No wonder the Twave split will take so long to move through the area...
Quoting presslord:


That is the best written, most well thought out, most concisely presented post I have seen here in a loooong time.

I would like to have seen the words "we do not know" in there some place. That's the bottom line.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:


It's so hot in Texas right now, the squirrels are clearing areas in the grass so they can cool their bodies against the dirt! Link

Dust baths are a common treatment for fleas and mites.
It was definitely warm across the United States in June. According to the NCDC, there were 1,641 record daily low or low maximum temperatures records set or tied during the month, and a whopping 7,317 record daily highs or high minimums, a high/low ratio of 4.46/1.

For the year, the numbers are more even but still lopsided, with 24,589 highs and 15,023 lows, a ratio of 1.64/1.

On a somewhat related note, the one-week-old Los Conchas Fire has now consumed 190 square miles. It is 11% contained.
And speaking of Inciweb, there's this update:
Texas Fires 2011

Since fire season began on Nov. 15, 2010, Texas Forest Service and local firefighters have responded to 13,467 fires that have burned a record-setting 3,292,070 acres [5,144 square miles]. The largest fire burned 314,444 acres in Presidio county in West Texas in April. Six of the state's largest wildfires occurred in a 19-day period during that month.

A state-wide drought combined with unseasonably strong winds have resulted in extreme fire behavior with high flame lengths and rapid fire growth in grasses, shrubs and timber. Texas Initial Attack crews and equipment are pre-positioned throughout the state to assist local fire departments with wildfire suppression actions when requested. The state Incident Command Post is located in Merkel, 15 miles west of Abilene.

Hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist across the state, unless relief is provided by tropical storms or hurricanes. Currently 237 of 254 Texas counties have burn bans. More than two-thirds of Texas counties have experienced wildfire this season. More than 2,000 structures, including 554 homes, have been lost.


InciWeb Article...

That's nearly 2% of the state, and more acreage than Delaware and Rhode Island combined, with enough left over for nearly one more Rhode Island. And it should be noted that the start of the next fire season is just four months away. :-\
Hope is a good thing maybe the best of things!Hope you have a great day everyone!
Hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist across the state, unless relief is provided by tropical storms or hurricanes. Currently 237 of 254 Texas counties have burn bans. More than two-thirds of Texas counties have experienced wildfire this season. More than 2,000 structures, including 554 homes, have been lost.

Ya know it's bad when THAT'S the solution.
hi AtHome- you're still awake?

Really sad when YES, most all of us are almost begging for a good TS or low-end Cat1. Not for the excitement of it, or to watch cyclogenesis or to try to our-forecast our fellow blogger- but simply because we need the rain SO BAD.
What really happened at FukushimaDaiichi?
Apparently things went fubar immediately after the quake and before the tsunami arrived. Enough so that it's questionable whether the tsunami itself caused significant damage.
the trick is to be smarter than the bug bite dont scratch it and thats the hard part.. after andrew they sprayed the impacted area repeatingly. we were lucky that yr not only was the storm was a dry one before and after it was dry or we of had even more problems. the worst time to get hit in florida by a major would be mid august no a/c for a wk or so it would be hard. life threatning to some. nothing except epac the dr was right again
There is an upper ridge trying to build in the carribean and shear is decreasing pretty good
cansomeone post a link to shear maps
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Hot and dry conditions are forecast to persist across the state, unless relief is provided by tropical storms or hurricanes. Currently 237 of 254 Texas counties have burn bans. More than two-thirds of Texas counties have experienced wildfire this season. More than 2,000 structures, including 554 homes, have been lost.

Ya know it's bad when THAT'S the solution.
I agree. 101 here yesterday and that is our 7 to 10 day forecast, no relief for the Central parts of Texas in the near future according to NWS and local weathermen. Less than 10 percent chance of a pop up shower.
Really starting to hate the word Persistence.

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENCE PATTERN OF HOT DAYS AND WARM NIGHTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE IN GOOD CONSENSUS THAT THE
500MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL WOBBLE
A BIT EACH DAY...BUT WILL GENERALLY REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS/DESERT SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
LOW...BUT DAILY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE. THE NAM/MET IS
VERY BULLISH WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN ON TUESDAY AS IT INDICATES
MOISTURE STREAMING WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL GULF AND POOLING
ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. HOWEVER...THIS MODEL IS AN OUTLIER
WITH THIS SOLUTION SO HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS CLOSER TO THE GFS.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MID/LONG-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
DIVERGE ON WHETHER TO DEVELOP SOMETHING MORE ORGANIZED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASING POPS LATE
NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET TOO EXCITED OVER RAIN
CHANCES THIS FAR OUT.
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2011/07/01/new -normals-vs-old-state-by-state/

"We are a Lighthouse.
Your call, Enterprise."
Does anyone know what 'contained' means in reference to wild fires?
eg The 540,000acre WallowFire is 95% contained:
Does that mean 5%(27,000acres) is still burning while 95% has burnt out?
Or does it mean that there are no-burn barriers around 95% of the perimeter of the still burning areas?
Morning, going to do this everyday(Morning and Afternoon)
Tropical Weather Watch for the next 5 days~
AOI #1: A tropical wave in association with a upper ridge is located in the northern caribbean and Hispaniola at this time. This system is in a non conducive for any development at this time, though upper-level winds could begin to ease in the coming days as a trough located just off the east coast lifts northwards, and development, if any, will be slow to occur. There is a medium chance, 30%, of this system developing in the next 120 hours. Otherwise, locally heavy rainfall is expected over the greater Caribbean islands, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas in the next 72 Hours.
Athome, we are not really begging for a low end Cat 1 or a tropical storm. What we really want is something along the likes of a sub par or sub tropical storm like we saw a couple years back in South Florida. Something that is training a lot of tropical moisture into the Florida region but that does not come along with the garden variety hurricane like issues.
aspectre what it means is that 95% of the fire is contained to an area that will allow it to either be put out or burn itself out. The other 5% is basically low brush and such that is burning out of control in other locales.
Quoting aspectre:
Does anyone know what 'contained' means in reference to wild fires?
eg The 540,000acre WallowFire is 95% contained:
Does that mean 5%(27,000acres) is still burning while 95% has burnt out?
Or does it mean that there are no-burn barriers around 95% of the perimeter of the still burning areas?

Great glossary here.
Thanks, guys. Google is useful for a lotta things, but looking up what commonly used words mean within the context of jargon used in a particular field ain't one of them.
Just finished reading a very interesting article on 200/300/500 mb Jetstream analysis....

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