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Loop Current Eddy cuts off; oil danger to Keys now greatly reduced

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:24 PM GMT on May 28, 2010

A major ocean current re-alignment is underway the Gulf of Mexico right now, and the new configuration that is developing greatly reduces the threat of oil entering the Loop Current and affecting the Florida Keys and U.S. East Coast. As I explain in my Loop Current Primer, the Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward just south of the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and past the western Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. Every 6 - 11 months, the top bulge of the Loop Current cuts off, forming a 250-mile diameter circular eddy in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico. This clockwise-spinning eddy is filled with warm water from the Loop Current, and is called a Loop Current Eddy. The main body of the Loop Current then takes a fairly direct eastward path from the Yucatan Channel to the Florida Keys.

Over the past two days, surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico have aligned to form a Loop Current Eddy, as seen in the analysis of surface currents done by the U.S. Navy (Figure 1, and see also a 30-day animation of the eddy forming.) It remains to be seen if the deep water currents have followed suit, and a stable Loop Current Eddy cannot exist until the deep water currents also cut off into a clockwise-rotating ring of water at depth. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is out over the Gulf of Mexico today dropping expendable buoys and current probes to determine if a stable Loop Current Eddy has formed. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the Loop Current Eddy formation.


Figure 1. Comparison of surface currents in the Gulf of Mexico on May 19 (top) and May 27 (bottom) as simulated by the HYCOM model. On May 19, the Loop Current made a large northward loop into the Gulf, and was able to transport oil from the near the spill location southwards through the Keys. By May 27, this loop had cut off, and new oil moving southwards from the spill will now be trapped in the clockwise rotating Loop Current Eddy that is cut off from the Loop Current. Note on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico, off the coast of Texas, there is an old Loop Current Eddy that cut off from the Loop Current in July 2009. This eddy cut off in the same location as this week's eddy, and has drifted west-southwestward at 3 - 5 km per day over the past ten months. Image credit: U.S. Navy.

If the eddy does remain in place, it will greatly reduce the chances of oil making it to Cuba, the Florida Keys, and beyond. Any oil moving southwards from the spill location will now become entrained in the eddy, and will move in a 250 mile-wide clockwise circle in the east-central Gulf of Mexico. A small portion the oil will get shed away from the eddy's periphery and make it into the Loop Current and waters surrounding the eddy, but the concentrations of oil doing so will be small. Keep in mind, though, that during the first 1 - 2 months that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it is common for the eddy to exchange substantial amounts of water with the Loop Current, and in some cases get re-absorbed into the Loop Current. A 1-year animation of the Loop Current shows that the last Loop Current Eddy, which cut off in mid-July 2009, experienced a 2-week period in early August when it re-attached to the Loop Current. A significant portion of any oil entering the eddy during a period of re-attachment will be able to enter the Loop Current and flow past the Keys.

One bad result of the eddy breaking off is that now we have an extra source of heat energy for passing hurricanes during the upcoming hurricane season. Loop Current eddies have high-temperature water that extends to great depth, and hurricanes passing over such eddies often undergo rapid intensification. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita of 2005 both underwent rapid intensification as they passed over warm Loop Current eddies in 2005. The formation of a Loop Current Eddy during hurricane season means that a much greater portion of the Gulf of Mexico has deep, warm water capable of fueling rapid intensification of hurricanes.

Oil spill update
Light offshore northwesterly winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Saturday, resulting decreased threats of oil to the Louisiana shore, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These offshore winds may be able to transport oil southwards into the Loop Current Eddy that just formed; a streamer of oil moving southeastward into the Loop Current Eddy is visible in yesterday's NASA MODIS imagery (Figure 2). Winds will shift to onshore out of the south on Saturday night, then shift to southwesterly by Tuesday. The long-range forecast from the GFS model indicates continued southwesterly winds all of next week. If this forecast verifies, we will see our greatest chances yet of significant amounts of oil reaching the beaches of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of the Gulf of Mexico taken at 2:55pm EDT Thursday May 27, 2010, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. Thin streaks of oil can be seen moving southeast and then southwest around the eastern side of the new Loop Current Eddy. Image credit: NASA.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Central American disturbance
The Atlantic is currently quiet, with none of our reliable global forecast models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next 6 days. There is an area of disturbed weather (90E) just off the Pacific coast of Mexico that will be a major concern for southern Mexico and much of Central America over the next 3 - 4 days. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the weekend, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. NHC is giving the disturbance a high (>60% chance) of the disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on the tropics.


Figure 3. Satellite image of the Central American disturbance 90E this morning.

Join the "Hurricane Haven" with Dr. Jeff Masters: a new Internet radio show
Beginning next week, I'll be experimenting with a live 1-hour Internet radio show called "Hurricane Haven." The show will be aired at 4pm EDT on Tuesdays, with the first show June 1. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. Some topics I'll cover on the first show:

1) What's going on in the tropics right now
2) Preview of the coming hurricane season
3) How a hurricane might affect the oil spill
4) How the oil spill might affect a hurricane
5) New advancements in hurricane science presented at this month's AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology
6) Haiti's vulnerability to a hurricane this season

I hope you can tune in to the broadcast, which will be at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. If not, the show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I'll be back with at least one update over the coming 3-day Memorial Day weekend. Have a great holiday!

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting EricSFL:
You people have no idea how much FIU2010 has offended people in this blog in Spanish.


If he has.....his butt should be throwed out for good. I am a friend of his, and have defended him many times.....but enough is enough.
Quoting EricSFL:
You people have no idea how much FIU2010 has offended people in this blog in Spanish.

did you report him to the admins? I could un-ignore him and do a translation of what he said.
why is the blog being bombarded by trolls?????????????????????????????????????
3506. EricSFL
Quoting FIU2010:


y tu, no? el que me ofende a mi, yo lo ofendere para tras, tu no harias lo mismo? eso no es justo, ese degenerado me llamo un cancer, un CANCER, TU sabes que significa eso? en fin, olvidalo, eso es castigo por dios. tu me caes mas o menos, no me sigues molestando, para que no tenga que reportarte yo a ti tambien.


OK
Quoting FIU2010:


y tu, no? el que me ofende a mi, yo lo ofendere para tras, tu no harias lo mismo? eso no es justo, ese degenerado me llamo un cancer, un CANCER, TU sabes que significa eso? en fin, olvidalo, eso es castigo por dios. tu me caes mas o menos, no me sigues molestando, para que no tenga que reportarte yo a ti tambien.


and you, no? that offends me me, I take offense to after, you would not do the same? that's not fair, that I call myself a cancer degenerate, a CANCER, YOU know what that means? Finally, forget it, that is punishment by God. I like your more or less, there still bothering me, so I do not have to report you to you too
3508. FIU2010
thank you for understanding, SF. naw tim, plz dont say that,w e're good friends for forever, besides he had called me a cancer, a cancer, would you take a remmark like that lightly and not defend yourself? i wouldn't think so.
JFV's Spanish is lulz worthy...
Quoting FIU2010:
thank you for understanding, SF. naw tim, plz dont say that,w e're good friends for forever, besides he had called me a cancer, a cancer, would you take a remmark like that lightly and not defend yourself? i wouldn't think so.

I hope you have changed for the better. But you know good and well that your past actions under other handles were VERY inappropriate. We are giving you another chance, but that comes with A) accepting the jokes on you and B) understanding that not everyone likes you.
You seem much nicer and less naive now, and I hope that is the case, but past transgression can be forgiven but not forgotten and you need to know that and live with it.
3511. FIU2010
back to weather, xcool. my bad.
3512. xcool
I'M TO OLD FORTHIS HAHA
Quoting FIU2010:
thank you for understanding, SF. naw tim, plz dont say that,w e're good friends for forever, besides he had called me a cancer, a cancer, would you take a remmark like that lightly and not defend yourself? i wouldn't think so.


WHAT! Don't say we are good friends forever......didn't say i was a good friend. See ya!
3514. FIU2010
yes, you are right, thanks for comprehending, i appreciate that, i've changed ofr the better, sir.
Bah gawd it must suck to be JFV/tropicalamanda/WeatherStudent/FIU2010...I mean, I'm a troll in my own right, yada since 2006 . . . but getting that much attention is definately lulzy and disgraceful
Quoting intunewindchime:
why is the blog being bombarded by trolls?????????????????????????????????????

cause they always come out at this time of year and try to disrupt the blog and put it into conflict.
3517. FIU2010
wow, tim, that really hurted me, i thought we were good buds, but that's ok, i respect that.
Quoting xcool:
I'M TO OLD FORTHIS HAHA

lol
I think Tim just iggy'd you, JFV.
3520. FIU2010
:). aggy is looking promising
3521. FIU2010
you and i both, xcool.
3522. xcool
btwntx08 LMAOO
How is aggy looking promising?

The flooding in Central America could be devastating
Quoting FIU2010:
:). aggy is looking promising

to redevelop into Hurricane Alex and curve around and hit Miami as a Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds amirite?!?!? Amirite amirite amirite!!!1!1!!1one!!1!eleven!!1!11!
Quoting FIU2010:
:). aggy is looking promising
Aggy is looking pretty bad too me the coc is to the left of the heviest storms.
3526. bappit
Quoting xcool:



LOW SHEAR CHANGE


There is still a lot of shear. Average the low and high shear areas together and they might even out.
I see JFV/TropicalAmanda/PresidentalElection/1000Windows/Weatherstudent/FIU2010 has made his presence known tonight. lol
3528. xcool



I HAVE HOPES
so where do you guys think that TD Agatha's COC is
huh???
3531. EricSFL
Agahtha seems, whats the word... discombobulated?
3532. guygee
It is the bigot who picks on people for speaking Spanish here. If you don't want to learn, just open a tab on Babel Fish or equivalent.

I am glad we have people from all over the world posting here, whatever the language. More weather-watchers from different places can only be a good thing on this blog.
Sheesh! Sorry to have to state the obvious...
Quoting xcool:



I HAVE HOPES
I think it wont last long its already weakening rapidly.
3534. FIU2010
they could redevelop, alex.
Google translate is amusing.

More than one permabanned troll is back.

Agatha is looking better over land than water. If it wasn't heading into mountains and the convection centered better, I'd wonder about her pulling a Fay.
Quoting xcool:



I HAVE HOPES


Hopes? You want it to survive the crossing?
3537. xcool
I'm going SIT backing & drink,MY BEER ..WAIT ON FORECAST MODELS.
Quoting FIU2010:
they could redevelop, alex.

yep we need to watch that :o
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Google translate is amusing.

More than one permabanned troll is back.

Agatha is looking better over land than water. If it wasn't heading into mountains and the convection centered better, I'd wonder about her pulling a Fay.

I hear ya
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Bah gawd it must suck to be JFV/tropicalamanda/WeatherStudent/FIU2010...I mean, I'm a troll in my own right, yada since 2006 . . . but getting that much attention is definately lulzy and disgraceful


OK, but notice you are starting trouble right now by saying that. You and everyone else just need to stop giving him attention. It's getting annoying. I'm in high school too and I don't act as immature as some of you. That's really all there is to say about that.

Anyways, it looks like Agatha may drench Florida in rain.
3541. EricSFL
Quoting guygee:
It is the bigot who picks on people for speaking Spanish here. If you don't want to learn, just open a tab on Babel Fish or equivalent.

I am glad we have people from all over the world posting here, whatever the language. More weather-watchers from different places can only be a good thing on this blog.
Sheesh! Sorry to have to state the obvious...


It is not about speaking Spanish, it's about what is beeing said in Spanish.
3542. xcool
KoritheMan NONO .I SAY HOPE MEAN FOR FIU2010
lmao xcool
Quoting FIU2010:
they could redevelop, alex.
Nope not seeing it sorry wont have enough time to redevelop before going into the buzzsaw shear which is in the gulf.
Why must JFV come back every season?
3546. scott39
By this time tomorrow it will be------ Agatha who????
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan NONO .I SAY HOPE MEAN FOR FIU2010


Ah, okay. Just checking.
3548. FIU2010
amanda??? you wish.
Quoting xcool:



I HAVE HOPES

i would downgrade it to a TD
Quoting extreme236:
Why must JFV come back every season?


To remind us every year that the ignore button still exist.
Quoting AussieStorm:

i would downgrade it to a TD


It already is a TD
3552. xcool
btwntx08 COME ON NOW YOU IT'S A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN neighborhooOOOO LMAO LMAO
If google translate is accurate, some pretty bad things are being said. I'm not a fan of people trying to sneak bad stuff in through another language.
Quoting extreme236:
Why must JFV come back every season?


Good to see you back Extreme!
Quoting extreme236:
Why must JFV come back every season?

Cause he can't stay away from this place. He likes causing trouble and conflict.
3556. FIU2010
agreed. sspnaish is a beautiful language, guys. i ahve a B.A Degree from FIU in SPN. XCool, what?
Quoting AussieStorm:

i would downgrade it to a TD
It has been downgraded already.
3558. xcool
FIU2010 BE NICE .THANKS.
3559. EricSFL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
If google translate is accurate, some pretty bad things are being said. I'm not a fan of people trying to sneak bad stuff in through another language.


Exactly.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
If google translate is accurate, some pretty bad things are being said. I'm not a fan of people trying to sneak bad stuff in through another language.

That is bad, They know not everyone, only a few can speak spanish. so they risk saying some pretty bad things and hope to get away with it.
Quoting AussieStorm:

i would downgrade it to a TD

it is already
3562. FIU2010
speak for yourself, aussie. it's sunday morning over there, dont you have to go to church or something, mate? anyways, EXt,w elcome back, sir.
Quoting xcool:
FIU2010 BE NICE .THANKS.

He doesn't know how to be nice, I wonder how many of his handle I have on ignore???
3564. FIU2010
I shall, XCool. is the ECW out yet?
Woah, what's going on in here tonight???
3566. xcool
FIU2010 NOT YET
Quoting FIU2010:
I shall, XCool. is the ECW out yet?
Nope not yet
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Woah, what's going on in here tonight???


We both missed it.
3569. FIU2010
ssst's int he carin are boiling hot.
Quoting FIU2010:
speak for yourself, aussie. it's sunday morning over there, dont you have to go to church or something, mate? anyways, EXt,w elcome back, sir.


Not everyone goes to church, because not everyone is a Christian. You're getting rusty, Janiel.
3571. FIU2010
thanks, gentlemen.
Quoting btwntx08:

it is already

i've been told 3 times its been downgraded, does that mean its a 3 time downer?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not everyone goes to church, because not everyone is a Christian. You're getting rusty, Janiel.


LOL!
South NSW hit by wild storm

DESTRUCTIVE winds are lashing southern NSW, causing damage to dozens of homes as a series of storms bringing flooding rains and huge seas approach the coast.

The town of Narooma was hit early this morning by a low pressure system and winds up to 135km/hr, the State Emergency Service (SES) said.

About 50 homes were damaged as windows broke, roofs were torn off and trees fell.

The state SES crews have so far attended to about 110 calls for help in the area.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued a severe weather warning for the south coast, the southern tablelands and the Illawarra region.

A series of offshore low pressure systems is due to cross the south coast today before moving north towards Batemans Bay, the bureau said.

It predicts gales exceeding 125km/hr and torrential rainfall, likely to cause flash flooding.
People are being warned to stay indoors and keep off beaches, and away from creeks, storm drains and causeways.

Sydney will avoid the brunt of the storms.

But, the SES yesterday warned Sydneysiders to stay indoors away from windows and to keep clear of power lines.

Extra SES volunteers are standing by to cope with increased call-outs.

Surf Life Saving Australia wants people to stay out of waterways and the surf, and waterfront residents should check their homes for erosion.

The severe conditions, whipped by an intense low, are similar to the storm that forced the Pasha Bulker container ship ashore in Newcastle in 2007.In the southern half of NSW, winds should exceed 90km/h today with at least 150mm of rain to be dumped on parts of the area.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Barry Hanstrum said: "Very strong to gale-force winds are expected along the southern coast, which will also result in very dangerous sea conditions and coastal erosion in vulnerable areas."

An SES spokesman said the service would closely watch Bulli, in Wollongong, where about 400 people from 130 homes were evacuated on Wednesday as a dam at an old mine threatened to flood homes.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not everyone goes to church, because not everyone is a Christian. You're getting rusty, Janiel.

He can comment to me all he like, I have him on ignore.
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.
Quoting AussieStorm:

i've been told 3 times its been downgraded, does that mean its a 3 time downer?

idk lol but later today the final advisory will probably go out
3578. xcool
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.


agreed 100%

really everyone should ignore him, ignore his questions, ignore his insults

and get back to the more important things
Whats going on!? Why everyone fighting :((
3582. xcool



WT[[[[[ WT[[[[ THAT KIND CRAZYYYY
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.
I agree wholeheartedly this is getting ridicolous!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.

very nice explained rich :)
3585. FIU2010
likewise, you australian bumblebee.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.

Amen to that brother.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
1900hurricane, an explosion of banned trolls coming back.

And FIU2010, if you think Spanish is a beautiful language, then you shouldn't use it in such an ugly way.

A serious blog cleanup is in order.


Cripes, people are dying right now in flooding in Guatemala and this drama is going on. It's really disgusting.

Sigh... I was a prolific poster back in 2006 and 2007, but I rarely post in here anymore. Now I remember why...
3588. guygee
Quoting EricSFL:


It is not about speaking Spanish, it's about what is beeing said in Spanish.


OK, I admit I did not read all the way back.
My bad.

With that said, I bid you a chagrined goodnight.
3589. xcool
anticyclone IN ATL TP
3590. FIU2010
wow, geeze, xcool, when did wind-shear becoem so high in the GOM? maybe this guys are right, aggy cannot survive throuh all of that, its impossible.
3591. EricSFL
xcool, I think Agatha might be torn into shreds by those upper level winds.
Quoting FIU2010:
likewise, you australian bumblebee.
Dude that was uncalled for im this close of putting you on ignore i want to like you but you are making it hard for me to.
Quoting FIU2010:
wow, geeze, xcool, when did wind-shear becoem so high in the GOM? maybe this guys are right, aggy cannot survive throuh all of that, its impossible.


wind shear has been high in the GOM for quite some time now
3594. FIU2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:


wind shear has been high in the GOM for quite some time now


i know, but that's absolutely extraordinary, when will it let down, since we're in neutral conditions now.
GEM continues to indicate the low re-developing next week and move into Florida by next Thursday/Friday...
3596. FIU2010
alex, he deserved it after hurting my feelings, my apologies, sir.
3597. xcool
EricSFL LMAO.SHE BE SMOKE TO EAST TO WEST LMAO
Quoting FIU2010:
wow, geeze, xcool, when did wind-shear becoem so high in the GOM? maybe this guys are right, aggy cannot survive throuh all of that, its impossible.
Im glad your seeing the same things we were seeing for some time now.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dude that was uncalled for im this close of putting you on ignore i want to like you but you are making it hard for me to.

i think u should alex this is out of hand
And you're a good poster 1900--I remember.

I've thought for a couple years that blogging and posting comments should be for paid members only. These trolls wouldn't come back if they had to pay. And even if they tried, they'd have to give their name on a credit card and the name could be blocked.

Not that featured bloggers should have to pay--I think weather456 deserves a stipend :)

The only reason not to make blogging a paid privilege is that so many young people in middle and high school post here. Would be a shame to exclude them.

Quoting FIU2010:
likewise, you australian bumblebee.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Dude that was uncalled for im this close of putting you on ignore i want to like you but you are making it hard for me to.


a personal attack..... i wonder what the admins will think of that???
FIU or whatever alias you go by, that question has been answered several hundred times on this blog the last 2 weeks

maybe if you actually paid attention instead of insulting people in Spanish and sparking arguments you would know that
3603. FIU2010
my fello collegues, when are we gonna see the la nina conditions set in?
Quoting FIU2010:
alex, he deserved it after hurting my feelings, my apologies, sir.
If someone hurts your feelings you dont have to lash back like you do sometimes either ignore him or just carry on your conversation with someone else alright.
as I say if Agatha was to be alive in the caribbean/atlantic it need to stay in the caribbean and do what I think it might do which is wobble around in the mountains and move into the W Caribbean cross ing Central Cuba and into bahamas and in that process redevelop into a TD or TS Alex.
3606. EricSFL
Quoting WxTracker15:
GEM continues to indicate the low re-developing next week and move into Florida by next Thursday/Friday...


Maybe shear will relax by mid-week and allow for regeneration.
3607. xcool
:0
Quoting FIU2010:
my fello collegues, when are we gonna see the la nina conditions set in?
They are set it just takes time patience is a virtue you will get your hurricane!
3609. FIU2010
:)
3610. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
EricSFL LMAO.SHE BE SMOKE TO EAST TO WEST LMAO


lol
Quoting FIU2010:
alex, he deserved it after hurting my feelings, my apologies, sir.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
If someone hurts your feelings you dont have to lash back like you do sometimes either ignore him or just carry on your conversation with someone else alright.


excuse me, how did i hurt your feelings?????
3612. xcool
FAVORABLE SHEAR COME SOONING
I have had my fill of JFV for one night. Good night everyone!
Quoting FIU2010:


i know, but that's absolutely extraordinary, when will it let down, since we're in neutral conditions now.


Well lemme go check my crystal ball and I will get back with you on that one.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting FIU2010:
likewise, you australian bumblebee.


a personal attack..... i wonder what the admins will think of that???

indeed a attack and yes admins will take care of it...we wont seehis face not much longer
Quoting extreme236:


Well lemme go check my crystal ball and I will get back with you on that one.


general answers have said a few more weeks before the shear relaxes, minus one or two momentary decreases

it has been said so many times here, yet he asks anyway
3617. xcool
btwntx08 HAHA ..
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting FIU2010:
alex, he deserved it after hurting my feelings, my apologies, sir.


excuse me, how did i hurt your feelings?????
I dont know how i was just telling him better alternatives in case someone does hurt his feelings i was not saying you did in my opinion you didnt.
3619. FIU2010
:)
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I dont know how i was just telling him better alternatives in case someone does hurt his feelings i was not saying you did in my opinion you didnt.

im my opinion I didn't unless he doesn't like someone telling to his face he has been ignored.
Well, the Southern Oscillation Index has switched back to positive, so technically we should be in a more La-Ninaish pattern right now:



The current reason why we are seeing so much shear over the Gulf is because of a jet split:

Ok well time for bed

A serious situation is unfolding in Central America with all this flooding. I hope that is what is focused on the rest of the night and not some kid who wants attention

Quoting FIU2010:
:)
Yes you are happy
3624. xcool
LMAOOOO
Quoting AussieStorm:

im my opinion I didn't unless he doesn't like someone telling to his face he has been ignored.
Thats probably it
he shouldnt be of course
3627. FIU2010
Quoting AussieStorm:

im my opinion I didn't unless he doesn't like someone telling to his face he has been ignored.


yes you did.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

I really don't get what's so hard about this.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Thats probably it

lol.
3630. EricSFL
You always have a very nice attitude xcool. Good to have you around in the blog.
Quoting FIU2010:


yes you did.


If your feelings are being hurt by a weather blog then I hate to see what your like in real life. I can already imagine...
Quoting charley11:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

I really don't get what's so hard about this.

maybe it should be tattooed on someones hands to when they type they can read it.
Anyways back to the realm of sanity a very serious situation is unfolding in central america hevy rain can be here for days leading to more flooding and unfortunately more deaths i hope thats not the case but they are in my prayers.
Quoting EricSFL:
You always have a very nice attitude xcool. Good to have you around in the blog.

indeed xcool ur very funny most of the time :)
Quoting FIU2010:


yes you did.
YOU NEED TO LIGHTEN UP!
3636. FIU2010
really? xcool? whne? shear needs to relax, now in order to get the canes cranking
3637. xcool
EricSFL THANKS btwntx08 :)
3638. xcool
FIU2010 YEAH .
Quoting FIU2010:
really? xcool? whne? shear needs to relax, now in order to get the canes cranking
Why do you want hurricanes cranking you should be saying the oppisite if you dont want property loss and human lives lost.
3640. xcool
I can't. wait to seeing ecmwf models...
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Why do you want hurricanes cranking you should be saying the oppisite if you dont want property loss and human lives lost.


Ignore him. He says statements like that to get reactions. Just ignore him.
Quoting extreme236:


If your feelings are being hurt by a weather blog then I hate to see what your like in real life. I can already imagine...

yeah... lol
Quoting xcool:
I can't. wait to seeing ecmwf models...
Me too probably show nothing developing.
Ladies and Gents, I would like to say that Janiel F. Vargas does not speak for us Southern Floridians or FIU students. Please don't think of us all in his light. We're much better than that :)
3645. xcool
alexhurricane1991 yeah probably show 0000%%%%
3646. szqrn1
okay hi! I have not been on this blog since last hurricane season and have moved out west. this question i have i am sure has been discussed in detail with y'all here... so forgive me for asking ...but what in the world is gonna happen when all this oil gets stirred up and sucked into a potential storm in the gulf this year? Gosh... the thought is scary to me.... my home was previously Gulfport, MS and my adult kids are still there. Any thoughts?
-
Quoting FloridaTigers:


Ignore him. He says statements like that to get reactions. Just ignore him.
Yeah you may be right i tried to like him but these stupid statements like that really makes it hard to like him this is my first year posting and wanted to give him a chance but its becoming clearer that chance is being wasted.
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Ladies and Gents, I would like to say that Janiel F. Vargas does not speak for us Southern Floridians or FIU students. Please don't think of us all in his light. We're much better than that :)

man u shouldve seen what took place a while ago
3650. Makoto1
If we need to have a hurricane to track can we have one more like this?



We don't have to have category 5's hitting anything that way but we still can track something.
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Ladies and Gents, I would like to say that Janiel F. Vargas does not speak for us Southern Floridians or FIU students. Please don't think of us all in his light. We're much better than that :)
dont worry i dont!
3652. FIU2010
Quoting FloridaTigers:
Ladies and Gents, I would like to say that Janiel F. Vargas does not speak for us Southern Floridians or FIU students. Please don't think of us all in his light. We're much better than that :)


im going to report you, continue to violate my personal info that way, and i will take darstic measures with you.
Haven't posted much since I've been back in CA but been watching and reading.

Please exercise the ignore button...

That being said however, I am ready to "take one for the team" and get banned. It's really taking everything I have to NOT do it. But hey, if I do, I can just create 1,000 handles and come back.

Hope everyone stays safe this season...my thoughts are with all of you.

But hey...a hurricane COULD hit san diego right guys??? Hey, should I board up the house right now and get ready for the storm that's in Central America? I mean I heard that it could come this way...
3582 xcool "WT[[[[[ WT[[[[ THAT KIND CRAZYYYY"

On the one hand, high shear over the Gulf of Mexico, good.

On the other hand, temperatures are so high and the shear is so low in the Caribbean west of the LesserAntilles and south of the DominicanRepublic that that even a peanut butter sandwich should grow into a hurricane.
So what am I not seeing that makes a hurricane not there? Dryness ne plus ultra?
3655. FIU2010
incrediable, dios mio. alex, i meant it from a tracking hobbyest prospective not from a carnage one.
Quoting melwerle:
Haven't posted much since I've been back in CA but been watching and reading.

Please exercise the ignore button...

That being said however, I am ready to "take one for the team" and get banned. It's really taking everything I have to NOT do it. But hey, if I do, I can just create 1,000 handles and come back.

Hope everyone stays safe this season...my thoughts are with all of you.

But hey...a hurricane COULD hit san diego right guys??? Hey, should I board up the house right now and get ready for the storm that's in Central America? I mean I heard that it could come this way...
LMAO!!!! LMAO!!!!
And Alex, I'm sure I'll get a "nastygram" any minute...

Warm Regards,

That "chick formerly from GA"

Quoting szqrn1:
okay hi! I have not been on this blog since last hurricane season and have moved out west. this question i have i am sure has been discussed in detail with y'all here... so forgive me for asking ...but what in the world is gonna happen when all this oil gets stirred up and sucked into a potential storm in the gulf this year? Gosh... the thought is scary to me.... my home was previously Gulfport, MS and my adult kids are still there. Any thoughts?


The worst effects from the oil would be from the storm surge of a potential storm. Oil could get washed inland and make a huge mess on inland environments. Jeff Masters wrote a detailed blog about it the other day:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1492&tstamp=.

Hope it helps :)
Quoting FIU2010:
incrediable, dios mio. alex, i meant it from a tracking hobbyest prospective not from a carnage one.
But you should have said to track in your statement if i misinterpreted what you said im sorry but next time be more specific!
3660. xcool
aspectre...high shear in aTL TP
3661. FIU2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
LMAO!!!! LMAO!!!!


I'm off to the University of San Diego next month for a conference, I cant wait to visit cali, :)
Excellent JFV...can't WAIT.
Quoting xcool:
aspectre...high shear in aTL TP
Yep
3664. szqrn1
Thank You Charley! I will check out that link.. like I said ... haven't been on here at all since I am in the desert.... and I sure miss the rain and humidity!!!!
3665. FIU2010
Quoting melwerle:
Excellent JFV...can't WAIT.


Do not worry about it, my route will take me NOWHERE near you.
3666. xcool
FIU2010 plz stop be so meann.
FloridaTigers, thanks for the info! Checked him out on facebook.
3668. BtnTx
post related to JFV deleted...
Daniel Sain, of Hopedale, La., said he was laying boom last week when he came across a rust-colored area of water with a pungent smell. Afterward, he experienced headaches, nausea and sinus irritation, he said.

"I don't smoke cigarettes or anything, but I'm coughing like a smoker," he said, adding that no medical personnel were available when he docked.

Even residents not working on the spill reported unaccustomed ailments. Lisa Louque, a restaurant worker, said she felt dizzy and disoriented and couldn't breathe several days after walking on a nearby beach. She said she stayed at Lady of the Sea General Hospital in Cut Off, La., for a day and a half.
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/nation/la-na-oil-spill-20100530,0,841698.story?page=3


See the original image at i.imgur.com
Dead dolphin covered with oil, sponsored by BP
http://digg.com/pets_animals/Dead_dolphin_covered_with_oil_sponsored_by_BP
3670. FIU2010
she started it. my sincere apologies, x
Oh snap...I was hoping we could get together for lunch.

Stay safe everyone. I'll be thinking of you and lurking around to see what's going on. Only earthquakes here and we've had plenty of them. Last week another two whoppers and felt the floor rock one way, then rock the other and shaking. Another three minutes later. No warning with them but I'm not sure which is worse - having no warning or having warning for DAYS and having that worry that comes along with it.

Just have your plans together and be prepared. This site is a wonderful place for information if you can sort through some of the nonsense.

3672. xcool
lmao ecwmf haha



go here

Link

Quoting melwerle:
Oh snap...I was hoping we could get together for lunch.

Stay safe everyone. I'll be thinking of you and lurking around to see what's going on. Only earthquakes here and we've had plenty of them. Last week another two whoppers and felt the floor rock one way, then rock the other and shaking. Another three minutes later. No warning with them but I'm not sure which is worse - having no warning or having warning for DAYS and having that worry that comes along with it.

Just have your plans together and be prepared. This site is a wonderful place for information if you can sort through some of the nonsense.

Thats so true take care!
Quoting xcool:
lmao ecwmf haha


Whats it showing to make you LMAO?
3675. xcool
ecwmf down player alot of stuff..i have no clue why..
3676. xcool
Link


go here..
3677. FIU2010
bigg deal, looking at my pic at FB proves what? look at your self on here, sigh.
3678. hcubed
Quoting FIU2010:
agreed. sspnaish is a beautiful language, guys. i ahve a B.A Degree from FIU in SPN. XCool, what?


English is beautiful, too... for those that can spell and use it properly.

And catch that? Now he has a B.A. degree in Spanish.

Your professors must be proud of your mastery of the language...
Quoting xcool:
ecwmf down player alot of stuff..i have no clue why..


What's it downplaying?
3680. xcool



weaker
Quoting AussieStorm:
Quoting FIU2010:
likewise, you australian bumblebee.


a personal attack..... i wonder what the admins will think of that???


dang, since it's late I'm gonna say.....who feels the NEED to personally attack Aussie?

Aussie is a great dude and if someone feels the need to personally attack him, well, .........well, I have no words that I can post w/out getting banned but since I'm not a paid member, I will save my "words" for someone who really counts on this blog

Luv Ya Aussie, you da bomb!!
what is it downplaying?
Quoting xcool:



weaker
Diffinately weaker we could be looking at a final advisory today
3684. xcool
KoritheMan STORMS IN EPAC aNYthing IN ATLtropical ..I HAVE NOO CLUE.
BA in spanish? I thought you were minoring in spanish and graduating in 2011?
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


dang, since it's late I'm gonna say.....who feels the NEED to personally attack Aussie?

Aussie is a great dude and if someone feels the need to personally attack him, well, .........well, I have no words that I can post w/out getting banned but since I'm not a paid member, I will save my "words" for someone who really counts on this blog

Luv Ya Aussie, you da bomb!!

Thanks
Aussie has NEVER SAID anything derogatory to anyone since I've been around. Always informative and polite...

Aussie IS da bomb...
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan STORMS IN EPAC aNYthing IN ATLtropical ..I HAVE NOO CLUE.

looks good to me, it destroys ex-Agatha over the terrain. completely plausible. looks like it may drag a weak low into the boc, but it hits that shear and .. well it doesnt matter anymore :)
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan STORMS IN EPAC aNYthing IN ATLtropical ..I HAVE NOO CLUE.
I dont think thats downplaying anything.
3690. xcool
storms very weaker
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Diffinately weaker we could be looking at a final advisory today

i did mention about the last advisory in the past posts
3692. xcool
alexhurricane1991 .ecwmf best forecast models.
Quoting btwntx08:

i did mention about the last advisory in the past posts
Oh i didnt see that too preoccupied with other matters if you know what i mean.
Aussie IS da bomb...never have I heard a derogatory word or anything other than a polite manner since I've been around.

3695. hcubed
Quoting FIU2010:


...and i will take darstic measures with you.


Oh, no! Don't do anything darstic...
3696. EricSFL
I just hope Agatha gets out of Central America as soon as possible. New convection blowing along the Pacific coast of Guatemala dumping even more rain.

Good night everyone.
Quoting xcool:
alexhurricane1991 .ecwmf best forecast models.
Yes it is but of course it can be wrong so dont take the model run verbatim.
Quoting hcubed:


Oh, no! Don't do anything darstic...
LOL! LMAO!!!!!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Oh i didnt see that too preoccupied with other matters if you know what i mean.

yea i know what u mean...i had mentioned it when aussie said "i think it should be a td" which it was then i said it
3700. FIU2010
por favor, we're loosing her xcool? dammit.
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan STORMS IN EPAC aNYthing IN ATLtropical ..I HAVE NOO CLUE.


It's right to downplay the remnants of Agatha. They won't redevelop.
I gotta go to bed or I'm going to get in a heap of trouble.

However I do have to post a link to Aussie's new song...(who the heck calls someone a bumblebee???) Imma be

Link
Good to see you melwerle :)
3704. xcool
FIU2010 yeah she high on """""
Deadly storm hits Central America

Tropical Depression Agatha unleashed torrential rains over Guatemala, southeast Mexico and much of El Salvador, triggering flash floods and mudslides.

Downgraded from a tropical storm -- the first of the Pacific season -- Saturday night, Agatha left at least 12 people dead and another 11 missing in Guatemala, the UK Press Association reported, citing National Disaster Relief Coordinator spokesman David de Leon.

Four children were buried in a landslide outside Guatemala City, and four adults were killed in the capital itself, de Leon said. Another two children and two adults were killed when a boulder, dislodged by heavy rains, crushed a house in the department of Quetzaltenango, 125 miles (200 km) west of Guatemala City, de Leon said earlier.

The system was expected to bring 10-20 inches (25-51 cm) of rain over the three countries, with possible 30 inches (76.2 cm) in some parts through Sunday.

Guatemala is already under a 15-day state of calamity because of the eruption on Thursday of the Pacaya volcano, which killed at least three people. At least 1,800 people were already evacuated to shelters, de Leon said earlier. The volcano had shut down the capital's international airport.
http://edition.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/weather/05/30/guatemala.agatha/
HI Stsimon!!! Good to see ya
3707. FIU2010
it kills it
3708. FIU2010
G'morning, all.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Good to see you melwerle :)
Good to see you stsimmonsislandGAguy!
3710. xcool
KoritheMan I'm real tracks Storm but hit noo land
Quoting melwerle:
Oh snap...I was hoping we could get together for lunch.

Stay safe everyone. I'll be thinking of you and lurking around to see what's going on. Only earthquakes here and we've had plenty of them. Last week another two whoppers and felt the floor rock one way, then rock the other and shaking. Another three minutes later. No warning with them but I'm not sure which is worse - having no warning or having warning for DAYS and having that worry that comes along with it.

Just have your plans together and be prepared. This site is a wonderful place for information if you can sort through some of the nonsense.



sadly, I thinking this is the beginning of many reports like this

you are right, we gotta be prepare but like I posted earlier this morning, how do ppl on the Gulf Coast prepare for something like this? So many questions and not enough answers.

It's obvious what ya gotta do to prepare for a hurricane but a storm blowing in with oil? No one knows. You can read posts here and there but really, let's face it, no one really knows,

I told hubby today (he asked) I said don't be suprised by late Sept the EPA or our local officals tell us we must move, we are 1 city block from the beach, with the casinos blocking us some what from a full on "oil hurricane" ** yeah I know, hopful thinking**

so many things to ponder, no answers and it's a wait and see type of thing........you gotta LOL cuz really, it's like a hurricane, the wait and see game of where it's gonna hit and the effects from it
Quoting FIU2010:
it kills it
And rightly so it is not looking to good for agatha but the problem is going to be the very heavy rainfall in central america.
3713. xcool
FIU2010 you go stop be so mean. im asking you..
Quoting xcool:
KoritheMan I'm real tracks Storm but hit noo land


Oh, I'm certainly hoping for an Atlantic system to track, as well. I'm just saying that any potential for Agatha's regeneration is slim to none.
Quoting hcubed:


Oh, no! Don't do anything darstic...


lol!!!
3716. FIU2010
im not being mean to nobody right now
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, I'm certainly hoping for an Atlantic system to track, as well. I'm just saying that any potential for Agatha's regeneration is slim to none.

i would agree other than that it will bring heavy rains to fl
3718. xcool


3719. xcool
FIU2010 .ok
Agatha is crossing at one of the narrowest parts of Cental America. Once you get beyond the inital mountians, its all a coastal plain. And this is not hyping, its fact, you can't hype geography... and besides once it gets over (which I think it will, barely.) Then it will get ripped to shreads, eaten, swallowed then regurgitated by the shear.

Quoting btwntx08:

i would agree other than that it will bring heavy rains to fl


Yeah. The subtropical jet will not be lifting within the next week and beyond.
3722. xcool


3723. FIU2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah. The subtropical jet will not be lifting within the next week and beyond.


by when then, korith.
Quoting btwntx08:

i would agree other than that it will bring heavy rains to fl


if it does bring heavy rains to Fl, even it tracking across the southern Gulf, will that engery be enough to cause the oil to push up farther to the coast lines?
Quoting FIU2010:


by when then, korith.
Too early too tell just be PATIENT!!!!
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


if it does bring heavy rains to Fl, even it tracking across the southern Gulf, will that engery be enough to cause the oil to push up farther to the coast lines?


No, because there will be no strong winds to accompany it.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, because there will be no strong winds to accompany it.


Blob of Mid-level/low level showers with wispy cirrus clouds by sunday.
3728. xcool
i need to check on subtropical jet models
Quoting xcool:
i need to check on subtropical jet models

If I had to guess, I'd put my timestamp on around the first of July for it to start really clearing out (we need more heat to build up to really drive it north)
Quoting xcool:
i need to check on subtropical jet models
Yeah can you post them?
3731. xcool
alexhurricane1991 yeah.i'm try find models.i have 3,000 website
Quoting weathersp:


Blob of Mid-level/low level showers with wispy cirrus clouds by sunday.


I meant surface winds. As far as I can tell, there will be no appreciable pressure gradient as the system nears the Gulf of Mexico, and the convection will be minimal due to strong vertical shear. Hence, no strong surface winds.
Quoting xcool:
alexhurricane1991 yeah.i'm try find models.i have 3,000 website
You can just call me alex i dont mind.
Quoting xcool:
i need to check on subtropical jet models


There are no "subtropical jet models". That is determined simply by checking the vertical shear forecasts.
3735. xcool
<< scott here
3736. FIU2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Too early too tell just be PATIENT!!!!


no me grites, ok, CARAMBA.
3737. FIU2010
you ahve the many links, xcool? wow, :). lol
Quoting weathersp:


Blob of Mid-level/low level showers with wispy cirrus clouds by sunday.


ok with the 3726 post and ur post.....what does that mean? I am one who comes here looking for info. I know the basics but don't know as much as many here on this blog

I know we are in for a busy season and to add the "oil" issue too, I am worried. it's kinda funny/sad how ppl here in Biloxi are reacting to the NOAA outlook. Most have the feeling that since Katrina happened, they are good for another 30 years and think the NOAA outlook is BS and are with the mindset that they will deal with a storm when it happens. None of them have prepared or even are thinking about prep plans.

It just frustrates me no one can heed the warnings
Quoting melwerle:
Aussie has NEVER SAID anything derogatory to anyone since I've been around. Always informative and polite...

Aussie IS da bomb...

Thanks
Quoting FIU2010:


no me grites, ok, CARAMBA.
Please stop asking questions that you know people have no idea what the answer is i beg of you please.
3741. xcool
icannot find it damm
3742. xcool
yeah alot too much
3743. xcool
MRF models create the gfs
Quoting xcool:
<< scott here
Hey scott!
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Please stop asking questions that you know people have no idea what the answer is i beg of you please.


best post of the Sunday Blog.......and it's early in the day!!!....but for you Aussie...LMAO!!
lol
3747. xcool
hey alex ///// lmao crazy
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


ok with the 3726 post and ur post.....what does that mean? I am one who comes here looking for info. I know the basics but don't know as much as many here on this blog

I know we are in for a busy season and to add the "oil" issue too, I am worried. it's kinda funny/sad how ppl here in Biloxi are reacting to the NOAA outlook. Most have the feeling that since Katrina happened, they are good for another 30 years and think the NOAA outlook is BS and are with the mindset that they will deal with a storm when it happens. None of them have prepared or even are thinking about prep plans.

It just frustrates me no one can heed the warnings

Do you know of the Barometer Bob show, It's on Thursday at 8pm ET. The show this week had a guest, his name, David Dilley from Global Weather Oscillations Inc. They talked about regions that could be impacted this hurricane season. Very eye-opening stuff. You can download the podcast from here.
I was actually on the show on April 29 with my lightening strike story.
Hurricane Hollow is also a very informative website.
and u can call me rob :)
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


best post of the Sunday Blog.......and it's early in the day!!!....but for you Aussie...LMAO!!

lol, 5:30pm sunday night here. Still waiting for heavy rain.
Quoting xcool:
icannot find it damm
Koritheman just said just look at the vertical shear forecasts
Quoting btwntx08:
and u can call me rob :)

you can call me "Al".
3753. xcool



3754. FIU2010
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Please stop asking questions that you know people have no idea what the answer is i beg of you please.


:)
Hey guys new to the place. I'm currently an undergrad student and I want to get my masters in broadcast meteorology. Check out my 2010 Hurricane Forecast. I think this upcoming hurricane season will keep me coming back here often.
3756. FIU2010
indeed, it trully was a pehnomenal show, in fact, Mr. Dilley, even spoke about how he expects a couple of south florida hurricane landfall this summer, including one major, let's hope he's wrong, but i do not think that he is, sgh. it wasa tremendosu show, aussie is right.
3757. xcool



54hr





162..
Quoting AussieStorm:

you can call me "Al".

hey al my neighbor next door is al too lol
3759. FIU2010
Welcome to the WU Community. We're looking forward to chatting with you. Where may I find it to read it, young lad?
3760. xcool
btwntx08 haha lmao
Quoting btwntx08:
and u can call me rob :)
Well hello there rob!
since the blog is slow I am going to post this

I saw the names for the up coming season and a few of the names are ppl I work with
Alex...busser
Danielle...server
Lisa...server
Matthew...cook
Nicole...upper mang
Paula...server
Richard...cook

since we are in a gambling town ( Biloxi, Ms ) I said we should take bets on these names and which ever names reaches the lowest pressure wins the pool........so far no takers LOL
Quoting StarnzMet:
Hey guys new to the place. I'm currently an undergrad student and I want to get my masters in broadcast meteorology. Check out my 2010 Hurricane Forecast. I think this upcoming hurricane season will keep me coming back here often.
Welcome to the blogs!
3764. xcool



check this outtt
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Well hello there rob!

well i know ur alex already we sometimes meet in the weather chat room here
Quoting btwntx08:

well i know ur alex already we sometimes meet in the weather chat room here
Yeah i know havent been in the chat room at all lately.
3767. xcool


3768. FIU2010
Quoting xcool:



check this outtt


excellent vid. i love max.
3769. FIU2010
G'nite, all. I'll be back in the am.
Quoting FIU2010:
Welcome to the WU Community. We're looking forward to chatting with you. Where may I find it to read it, young lad?


Thanks. You can find my forecast as my first blog.

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Welcome to the blogs!


Thanks!
3771. xcool


3772. xcool
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Yeah i know havent been in the chat room at all lately.

yea me too been on chatango more
Quoting xcool:


Dang looks like agatha got run over by a mack truck looks horrible
3775. xcool
big time..she doom buzzz
om i have rain to my west hmmm looks like the shortwave is getting closer to us
well im out for the night goodnight all see ya later
3778. xcool
bye rob
Well it was an eventful first hours os sunday to say the least but its time for me to sign off i will see you all tomorrow and have the people in central america in your prayers as they are dealing with heavy rainfall from what soon will be Ex-agatha but that doesnt mitigate the impact what so ever so with that i bud you farewell till tomorrow!
3780. xcool
i'm out to bye alex
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST May 30 2010
=====================================

A low pressure area would form over southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea during the next 48 hours

Convective clouds are seen over parts of south and adjoining central Arabian Sea, east central Bay of Bengal, and Andaman Sea.

Hello,

What about 20N 80W?

is it posible to developed?
3582 xcool "WT[[[[[ WT[[[[ THAT KIND CRAZYYYY"

3654 aspectre "...the Caribbean...what am I not seeing that makes a hurricane not there?"

3660 xcool "...high shear in aTL TP "

Sorry, I am unfamiliar with the abbreviations?acronyms aTL TP.
Atlantic Tropopause? a TropicalLow TroughPressure? a TrulyLousy TemperatureProfile?
Yep, I don't know enough to even make a halfway respectable guess.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER AGATHA (EP012010)
9:00 AM UTC May 30 2010
==============================================

SUBJECT: "AGATHA" dissipates over the mountains of western Guatemala

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Agatha (1007 hPa) located at 15.6N 91.7W or 60 NM northeast of Tapachula, Mexico has sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 30 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northeast at 5 knots.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM..
Post Time: 8:40 AM GMT on May 30, 2010
high shear in aTL TP"

Sorry, I am unfamiliar with the abbreviations?acronyms aTL TP.
Atlantic Tropopause? a TropicalLow TroughPressure? a TrulyLousy TemperatureProfile?
Yep, I don't know enough to even make a halfway respectable guess.


hmm

ATL TP = Atlantic Tropical Potential?

There is so many abbrievations that other people use now a days, LOL
Oh c'mon guys, don't quit now. We only got a little more than 5hours left to make another 214 comments to get to 4000posts in 48hours.
anyone on???
Usually just hear alotta crickets chirping for the next couple of hours or so.
"A little sun and air and water, and all the flowers of spring are blooming."
Quoting szqrn1:
okay hi! I have not been on this blog since last hurricane season and have moved out west. this question i have i am sure has been discussed in detail with y'all here... so forgive me for asking ...but what in the world is gonna happen when all this oil gets stirred up and sucked into a potential storm in the gulf this year? Gosh... the thought is scary to me.... my home was previously Gulfport, MS and my adult kids are still there. Any thoughts?


Read the last few blog entries by Dr. Masters. They are quite informative. NHC also has a 2 page "brochure" out on this ... perhaps someone could post the link? I failed to save it.
3653 melwerle "But hey...a hurricane COULD hit san diego right guys??? Hey, should I board up the house right now and get ready for the storm that's in Central America? I mean I heard that it could come this way..."

No problemo, it ain't like SD has mosquitoes. And ya barely even need a house 'ceptin' to keep out mosquitoes.

Just be grateful that ya don't hafta face the huge and powerful acne that's gonna make landfall in Miami this year. AND they've got mosquitoes. Things're gonna get really ugly really quick.
szqrn1, The oil will not get "sucked" up into the storm. As your thinking, that is evaporation and oil does not do that. Not in the way your thinking anyway. It may, however, come further inland due to storm surge. And while I'm at it Good Morning everyone!!
anyone on? morning all
3752 AussieStorm "you can call me 'Al'."

Great. Just what this blog needs, another one of them thar GlobalWarmers.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


Read the last few blog entries by Dr. Masters. They are quite informative. NHC also has a 2 page "brochure" out on this ... perhaps someone could post the link? I failed to save it.

NHC "brochure"
3797. Greyelf
Wow. 76 pages with the first named storm. It's going to be a long season.
3798. IKE
If you believe....

(1)The ECMWF...quiet in the Atlantic through June 9th.

(2)The GFS...quiet in the Atlantic through June 15th.
3793 msgambler "szqrn1, The oil will not get "sucked" up into the storm. As your thinking, that is evaporation and oil does not do that. Not in the way your thinking anyway."

About 30%to40% of sweet light crude is composed of volatiles that evaporate quite readily&rapidly...if it's allowed to stay on the surface rather than mixed into the water column by dispersants.
And if a hurricane can pick up lawn furniture, it can pick up thin-film oil from the sea surface and loft it inland as spray.

Obviously there ain't gonna be an oilycane for real: WAY WAY WAY too high water-to-oil ratio for that. But I suspect folks are gonna smell&taste crude in the same manner that they smell&taste salt&seaweed.
morning ike i see theres still alotta shear over GOM thru bahamas....like 60mph plus...probabaly take that awhile to lessen,may not have a early start,im guessing later June til things pop
I was answering the question at hand. Thank you
Need 198 more comments in 3hours to get to 4000posts in 48hours. We can do it!
erm... post.

3804. IKE
Quoting stormhank:
morning ike i see theres still alotta shear over GOM thru bahamas....like 60mph plus...probabaly take that awhile to lessen,may not have a early start,im guessing later June til things pop


Agree...too much shear.
Looks like alot of rain here in pan handle today n tommorow 70% chance
3806. IKE
I had 1.10 inches of rain yesterday at my house, bringing my monthly total to 6.51.
Any previous discussion and/or thoughts what the oil in the GOM will do to the SST?
Decent wave exiting africa at the moment. Showing some good 850mb vorticity and upper divergence, lower convergence isn't very high though. Shear is low and the wave is producing new cloudtops over water. One to watch over the next day to see if it can keep convection going over water.
Good morning Sir Ike
3810. cg2916
Good morning everyone!

Just got done editing the Wikipedia page on Agatha.
3811. cg2916
Hey, I just noticed! Dr. Masters was gone this whole time, and Agatha formed!

And so the curse continues...
3812. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Sir Ike


Morning...

Good Morning

Blog Update

Agatha floods Central America
3814. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


Morning...



Morning, Ike. Doesn't quite look as good anymore, the mountains really killed it.
3815. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Agatha floods Central America


Good morning 456!
3816. IKE
Quoting cg2916:


Morning, Ike. Doesn't quite look as good anymore, the mountains really killed it.


And quickly.
3817. cg2916
Good post, 456.

I never really expected Agatha to re-organize in the Atlantic. It would either hit the GOM, or the NW Caribbean, and then the GOM.

Even if it made it into the SW or Central W Caribbean, it would have much time before it would hit Cuba, and then the subtropical jet stream.
3818. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


And quickly.

I know. Only got 2 advisories out of it after it made landfall (not counting 3a).
Yea those waves off africa look decent for so early,,,hence the forecast for active season
3820. cg2916
Quoting stormhank:
Yea those waves off africa look decent for so early,,,hence the forecast for active season


Yup. If the ITCZ would move north a little bit, we could have a fairly active June/July. IMO, of course.
3821. cg2916


Nice wave rolling off of Africa. Doesn't have terribly strong convection, but it looks pretty strong.
3822. kingy
good morning all,

Agatha may be done but the oil spewage continues, seemingly faster than before. Perhaps the topkill did indeed flush the pipework sufficiently to allow increased spewage. Life is not without its irony, call it karma if you will. But BP is in a hell of a mess just as the gulf is being poisoned.

By the time this summer is done man will have wreeaked environmental chaos in the gulf. The food chain may well be showing signs of oil contamination for many a year to come. After just 1 month BP says it has spent half a billion dollars on the clean up, imagine what they will be forced to spend in the next decade. This will be the biggest financial hit that ANY company will have ever taken in corporate history by the time this is done.

The bad news is that we have perhaps another 60-90 days (maybe much more) of oil gushing at around a million gallons a day.

And then we got the storm systems ploughing through it all. What a legacy.
3823. cg2916
It's too far south, though (look at the E end of the ITCZ).

3798 IKE "If you believe....
(1)The ECMWF...quiet in the Atlantic through June 9th.
(2)The GFS...quiet in the Atlantic through June 15th.
"

(3)The INEPT...HurricaneSeason fires up between 11June and 14June...
3825. cg2916
Quoting kingy:
good morning all,

Agatha may be done but the oil spewage continues, seemingly faster than before. Perhaps the topkill did indeed flush the pipework sufficiently to allow increased spewage. Life is not without its irony, call it karma if you will. But BP is in a hell of a mess just as the gulf is being poisoned.

By the time this summer is done man will have wreeaked environmental chaos in the gulf. The food chain may well be showing signs of oil contamination for many a year to come. After just 1 month BP says it has spent half a billion dollars on the clean up, imagine what they will be forced to spend in the next decade. This will be the biggest financial hit that ANY company will have ever taken in corporate history by the time this is done.

The bad news is that we have perhaps another 60-90 days (maybe much more) of oil gushing at around a million gallons a day.

And then we got the storm systems ploughing through it all. What a legacy.


I know, we got a mess.
3826. cg2916
Quoting aspectre:
3798 IKE "If you believe....
(1)The ECMWF...quiet in the Atlantic through June 9th.
(2)The GFS...quiet in the Atlantic through June 15th.
"

3)The INEPT...HurricaneSeason fires up between 11June and 14June...


(4) The CFS... quiet through June 5th.
Im thinking along the lines of June 20th or later for the first storm,,due to all the shear in gulf n carribean
Quoting IKE:
I had 1.10 inches of rain yesterday at my house, bringing my monthly total to 6.51.


Hey Ike,

How's it go? A short distance to your SW, we only had thunder and a few drops of rain over here.
3829. cg2916
Dang it, the blog is quieting down. IKE and 456 left.
3830. cg2916
Quoting stormhank:
Im thinking along the lines of June 20th or later for the first storm,,due to all the shear in gulf n carribean


I have June 14th or so, because the shear has lifted into the Caribbean, and the shear should lift in the Gulf in June.
3831. IKE
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Hey Ike,

How's it go? A short distance to your SW, we only had thunder and a few drops of rain over here.


I got lucky and you missed out.

Maybe today?
Shear is one factor. Remember for TC genesis we need a pre-existing disturbance, in this case, a tropical wave. The current tropical waves most northern extent are 12N, which is too far south to develop. The one that emerged off Africa has some northern extent to it and might be the one that kicks of the season in 7-10 days.
U know the storms in west pacific have formed before though around 5 deg north..that basin always seems to have the right conditions since their season can last year round at times
Quoting IKE:


I got lucky and you missed out.

Maybe today?


I hope not, kids want to swim today and grass is growing like wild fire.
Quoting stormhank:
U know the storms in west pacific have formed before though around 5 deg north..that basin always seems to have the right conditions since their season can last year round at times


Yea but we can't apply everything to the Atlantic. Each basin has a unique climatology. At 5N in the WPAC is the monsoon trough and at 5N in the Atlantic basin is the ITCZ. The former favors cyclogenesis while the latter does not.
Quoting aspectre:
3752 AussieStorm "you can call me 'Al'."

Great. Just what this blog needs, another one of them thar GlobalWarmers.

my name isn't really Al.
Live video link from the ROV

Can this get any uglier....YES IT CAN! Wait another 2 months and just 1 storm in the GOM!
3838. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:
Shear is one factor. Remember for TC genesis we need a pre-existing disturbance, in this case, a tropical wave. The current tropical waves most northern extent are 12N, which is too far south to develop. The one that emerged off Africa has some northern extent to it and might be the one that kicks of the season in 7-10 days.


It may. We'll have to track that, mainly because there's nothing else to track. Ex-Agatha will be sheared, if it's not already gone, so we can't track that.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Live video link from the ROV

Can this get any uglier....YES IT CAN! Wait another 2 months and just 1 storm in the GOM!


I agree TS.. When the leak was first announced that was the first thing I thought of. I don't think people are aware of what kind of devestation even a CAT 2 would bring to the shorelines and well up into all of the rivers and lakes if you are on the East side of the storm.


Been very consistent



Looks like a LLC is developing off the Yucatan...GEESH.....SHEAR in the GOM is still very high tho.
and they have alot more ocean to form storms also 456
Agatha may have just jumped ship??
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I agree TS.. When the leak was first announced that was the first thing I thought of. I don't think people are aware of what kind of devestation even a CAT 2 would bring to the shorelines and well up into all of the rivers and lakes if you are on the East side of the storm.


Maybe our Government will start taking this serious and stop escorting BP! This has been taken to the next level now. This is the greatest Country in the world with the most creative minds. This is totally unexceptable to allow this to continue.
Evening all.
If you have Google Earth, you'll like this website, has plenty of weather add-on's.
Quoting Weather456:


Yea but we can't apply everything to the Atlantic. Each basin has a unique climatology. At 5N in the WPAC is the monsoon trough and at 5N in the Atlantic basin is the ITCZ. The former favors cyclogenesis while the latter does not.

5N is definitely too far south for development in the Atlantic. However, I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss something at 12N. We've seen development that far south plenty of times, maybe not this early in the season, but then again, this doesn't appear to be a typical season coming up...
Quoting TampaSpin:


Maybe our Government will start taking this serious and stop escorting BP! This has been taken to the next level now. This is the greatest Country in the world with the most creative minds. This is totally unexceptable to allow this to continue.


Wishful thinking Tampa... I think the govt. and BP are both in the Oh Sh*t mode and are grasping at straws.
Chuck this thing could tank the US economy what recovery we have going and bring it to a halt and start things the other direction if it gets in the LOOP!

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Wishful thinking Tampa... I think the govt. and BP are both in the Oh Sh*t mode and are grasping at straws.
the problem is
no backup plan
was mandated

and that pre-dates
this administration

this is hardly
Obama's Katrina

it's just the latest
Bush/Cheney
tragic-comedy
3850. kingy
Quoting TampaSpin:
Live video link from the ROV

Can this get any uglier....YES IT CAN! Wait another 2 months and just 1 storm in the GOM!


it is an enviromental disaster that they will write books about in the future, and it is unfolding right before our eyes with the media mostly blind to what is coming.

The currents will be spreading this oil far and wide over coming months, many storms bringing oil to beaches and marshes, in the end few will escape it.

Not so long in the future people will start rethinking their views of eating anything caught in the gulf.

The loop currents combined with storm effects will be the perfect way to distribute this to all shores on most coastal counties. Sinking oil will systematically foul each ocean layer they penetrate.

It hasn't really hit home as a major disaster yet and won't until the first big slick comes in. That could be in a weeks time with the onshore winds. Then other slicks will wash ashore but in general the media will be behind the game so far as the significance of this.

I think their will be oil-impact forecasts accompanying hurricane warnings by the NHC by the time this geyser has finished spewing.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Wishful thinking Tampa... I think the govt. and BP are both in the Oh Sh*t mode and are grasping at straws.

And the govt has been "in charge of this disaster since the moment it occurred", BP is operating at the govt's direction...makes me feel better, how about you all?
Quoting smarterthanyou:
the problem is
no backup plan
was mandated

and that pre-dates
this administration

this is hardly
Obama's Katrina

it's just the latest
Bush/Cheney
tragic-comedy


You need to get over it... I am not blaming any one person. Both BP and the current administration have EPICALLY FAILED. It dosen't matter what you walk into, it's how you handle it once you are inside.
//I posted this last night

was just on BP.com clicked on response in pictures then command center at the bottom. Look at this clearly photoshopped pic of the "command center" Link

zoom in on the heads of the 2 guys in the back of the room, you can see the image on the large projection screen was manipulated.

I think it just a quick contrast/brightness adjust on the proj. screen but still, I don't trust these guys
Obama became president in 2009, not 2010, this is Obamas situation and he has failed to get there quick enough, like he cares lol. Heck, he rather go on vacation to Chicago then honor our troops who are fighting for their lives for us tomorrow.
Quoting smarterthanyou:
the problem is
no backup plan
was mandated

and that pre-dates
this administration

this is hardly
Obama's Katrina

it's just the latest
Bush/Cheney
tragic-comedy


Why do people continuously feel the need to play the blame game. "It's Obama's fault! It's Bush's fault!"
Progress can only be made when people stop blaming their least favorite government officials and actually become actively involved with this crisis. Why is there so much hate in the world?
Quoting smarterthanyou:
Funny!

all the right wing
government hating
whackos
are now crying
like a bunch
of little pansies
for the
government
to do
something


Ok, forget my previous comment, you're just a troll...
Quoting smarterthanyou:
Funny!

all the right wing
government hating
whackos
are now crying
like a bunch
of little pansies
for the
government
to do
something
That may be because they say they are " IN CHARGE OF EVERYTHING".

"Let the capitalist
free enterprise system
work without
government
interference."

How's that
workin'
for ya'?
Quoting johnbone:


Why do people continuously feel the need to play the blame game. "It's Obama's fault! It's Bush's fault!"
Progress can only be made when people stop blaming their least favorite government officials and actually become actively involved with this crisis. Why is there so much hate in the world?


Get another cup of Coffee and take a deep breathe then open your eyes! PLEASE!
If Bush was president or Mc. Cain, he would have been to blame, it's like all you left wing people love to blame us right wings and it's alright, no bashing goes around, then when we blame you, it's wrong.. politics pshhh
Quoting smarterthanyou:

"Let the capitalist
free enterprise system
work without
government
interference."

How's that
workin'
for ya'?


Wow... I truly feel sorry for you. Did you pick your screen name for a 2nd grade chat room?
It is BP, Transocean, Halliburton, and MMS fault. And nobody can change my mind on that. My opinion and you can have yours.
I may be a Christian Conservative, but I look at BOTH sides of the situation, this is clearly BPs fault, and it is the Obama Admin. fault for getting there almost 40 days after the crisis, good job on their part lol.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Wow... I truly feel sorry for you. Did you pick your screen name for a 2nd grade chat room?


Seriously?!?!?!?!?!

That's the
best ya got?!?!?!?!?!
OBAMA even said he was in charge from Day 1. Nice job MR. President! Nice job on protecting our Shores. THAT IS THE GOVERNMENT ONE OF ITS SOLE FREAKING JOBS for something you LIBERALS don't understand! What a joKE YOU ARE!
3867. skep
What could either Bush or Obama do to help? Really..the experts don't sit in the government, but in the oil-drilling industry. Anyway, I'm sitting here far far away from most of you guys in europe, but this blame game sounds so ridiculous and childish. And btw. conservatives vs. demokrats or right vs. left..always funny that some see obama as leftist socialist or something in that area. In most parts of the world your democrats would be put on the right political side ;)
Man, if you would know how I vote here where I live you would call me a freaking communist..hehe..(oh..and I'm far from being one).

So back to the real topic:
Now with BP's new plan (I've heard they are running out of cool names like "top kill") and the relief drilling only ready in august, it seems to me that the worst is still to come, if thats possible. I hope for the best.
Quoting smarterthanyou:


Seriously?!?!?!?!?!

That's the
best ya got?!?!?!?!?!


No, I would get banned for life if I really told ya what I thought of you.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Get another cup of Coffee and take a deep breathe then open your eyes! PLEASE!


Huh? So you're trying to tell me that you actually believe this is the fault of the government? And if it is, it's merely one administration's fault? Politics is politics. If you truly believe that the Obama administration is remarkably different than the Bush or Clinton one for that matter, I don't know what to say.
My eyes are wide open, and I see corruption on both sides.
Quoting TampaSpin:
OBAMA even said he was in charge from Day 1. Nice job MR. President! Nice job on protecting our Shores. THAT IS THE GOVERNMENT ONE OF ITS SOLE FREAKING JOBS for something you LIBERALS don't understand! What a joKE YOU ARE!


google
punctuation

and
grammar
Quoting smarterthanyou:


google
punctuation

and
grammar

Irony
3872. pottery
Quoting reedzone:
Obama became president in 2009, not 2010, this is Obamas situation and he has failed to get there quick enough, like he cares lol.

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.
Everyone have a good day and Thank God for some that understand What our Government is suppose to do and what they are not suppose to do. Its really very simple and in the Constitution that ever President was suppose to pledge to uphold. OH maybe this one did not get that message!
Geee I guess alot people ignored me from either the last political argument, or last year.. I would have been bashed already lol...
Quoting pottery:

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.

The voice of reason!
You hit the nail on th head pottery.... And good morning
Hey Tampa,

Follow suit, I should've done this before my blood pressure topped out. smarterthanyou = *poof*

Sometimes it's better to ignore that blind
3878. bappit
Yep. Everyone went tut-tut and rolled their eyes when Halliburton, BP and Transocean pointed fingers at each other before a congressional committee. What hypocrites! Pointing fingers is the great American past time if you go by how the politicians act.

I was impressed with the way the Plaquemines Parish president acted in an interview a couple of weeks ago. No more. Heard him again and his tune has changed. He is saying what his constituents want to hear.
3879. pottery
Morning Gambler. What are the odds today? LOL.
Good morning to everyone else too.
Quoting cg2916:


(4) The CFS... quiet through June 5th.

What do you all think of the WRF model? I don't see much discussion of it on here.
Quoting msgambler:
It is BP, Transocean, Halliburton, and MMS fault. And nobody can change my mind on that. My opinion and you can have yours.


This is, in my opinion, the bottom line. The government allowed sloppy practices to go on but BP was drilling and operating that well on the cheap and it caught them.

I'm an American and don't think either party is representing me, or what I have always perceived as America. There is blame to hand out in all directions, the self serving inmates are running the asylum and have been for more than two administrations, but it doesn't need to be partisan. If you are going to shake your finger at Washington please do it because of performance, or lack thereof, not party.

Watching Agatha last night it looked like she might just jump across the isthmus.. IMO, that was her only hope, the stall is allowing the mountains to drive the life out of the system. The stall is also going to take progressively more lives too as rain totals add up and start coming down the mountainsides :(
Quoting pottery:

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.


This is a small case of many cases that I blame him for.. Gosh he's not even going to a Memorial Service tomorrow.. That hurts the heart dude, he put a health care bill up by force, against the constitution and he should be impeached for that, he also MAY have been part of a cover up job by the admin. to stop a democrat for getting into the senate. It's time to stop blaming Bush/Cheney for everything, Obama is TODAYS president and whatever happens in this country, especially with the active Hurricane Season, IF he doesn't respond or do anything, it's HIS fault. The oil crisis was BPs fault, but Obama took almost 40 days to get there, he even said he was in charge of it, then why didn't he do something? BTW, you do know that Obama blames the American People for stuff, he got tired of blaming Bush all time, he's soo perfect he can't do anything wrong. Ok, gotta get ready for Church now, I'm done with politics for the day, cause thats what this is, politics, not dealing with the crisis.
I don't play odds only sure winners.....lol
Quoting johnbone:

The voice of reason!


I second that!
Quoting pottery:

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.


how dare you!! you are your logical thinking! geesh! :)
Quoting pottery:

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.

And did you have the same perspective on Bush's response to Katrina?
3887. pottery
Quoting indianrivguy:


This is, in my opinion, the bottom line. The government allowed sloppy practices to go on but BP was drilling and operating that well on the cheap and it caught them.

I'm an American and don't think either party is representing me, or what I have always perceived as America. There is blame to hand out in all directions, the self serving inmates are running the asylum and have been for more than two administrations, but it doesn't need to be partisan. If you are going to shake your finger at Washington please do it because of performance, or lack thereof, not party.

Watching Agatha last night it looked like she might just jump across the isthmus.. IMO, that was her only hope, the stall is allowing the mountains to drive the life out of the system. The stall is also going to take progressively more lives too as rain totals add up and start coming down the mountainsides :(

I am questioning whether it is 'the Gov' or the minor individual on the ground who, for whatever reason, did not do what he/she was supposed to be doing in monitoring the Regulations that are already in place.
Yes, politically the buck stops at the top, but to blame the "Government" is a bit far fetched you know...
3888. aquak9
Listen ya'll!!!

This is the reason that you can create you OWN BLOG!! you wanna fight? you wanna go off-topic from Doctor Master's blog? Do it in your own blog!

Not here!

Have a little respect for Dr.Masters and the dedicated weather bloggers. Have a little respect for yourselves and all the readers.

Take this fight elsewhere!
3889. pottery
Quoting reedzone:


This is a small case of many cases that I blame him for.. Gosh he's not even going to a Memorial Service tomorrow.. That hurts the heart dude, he put a health care bill up by force, against the constitution and he should be impeached for that, he also MAY have been part of a cover up job by the admin. to stop a democrat for getting into the senate. It's time to stop blaming Bush/Cheney for everything, Obama is TODAYS president and whatever happens in this country, especially with the active Hurricane Season, IF he doesn't respond or do anything, it's HIS fault. The oil crisis was BPs fault, but Obama took almost 40 days to get there, he even said he was in charge of it, then why didn't he do something? BTW, you do know that Obama blames the American People for stuff, he got tired of blaming Bush all time, he's soo perfect he can't do anything wrong. Ok, gotta get ready for Church now, I'm done with politics for the day, cause thats what this is, politics, not dealing with the crisis.

Please say a small prayer for us.
indianriv., I can't verify this but a few weeks ago i read something that stated BP owned the well and transocean was drilling and halliburton was mudding and cementing. Which means Transocean and Halliburton employees were the workers doing the work. I could be wrong though. Just remember reading that. If that is the case then if was being done unsafely then transocean and halliburton should have told BP that they would not do it that way and stopped the process and reported the problem. JMHO. Like I said, I may have read it wrong. That was a few weeks ago and I can't remember what I did yesterday.
Quick question. If Agatha crosses into the Atlantic do they rename it Alex or just keep the name it already has? Thanks all. Been reading for years but first post.
3892. pottery
Quoting msgambler:
I don't play odds only sure winners.....lol

Well it would be a hard winner to pick, with this one LOL
3893. kingy
this is so american, everyone arguing about whose fault it is.

You are missing the point, the worst eco disaster in our history is getting worse to the likely tune of a million gallons of oil a day and the best bet is that it is 2 more months until this is shut off.

They need a plan to have hundreds of miles of boom and a fleet of oil sweepers and even that would take them too long.


I think it gets renamed nccatman. Now that it has been downgraded.
Quoting pottery:

To carry this a little further, you must also blame Obama for the faulty brake-pedal spring on the Toyota's, the the poisons in Tylenol, the oil-pipe that spewed oil in Alaska last week, etc etc etc.
You cannot call for less and less Federal involvement in every aspect of life, then blame the President for not personally supervising every item on every specification sheet written.
Give this a break....

This oil leak is an unprecedented disaster, that was caused by a multitude of bad decisions, errors, human frailty.
The fact that is has not been sealed up is noboddy's FAULT. It is due to the simple fact that there is no way to stop it as yet. Have you understood the situation?
There is no grand conspiracy here.

Quoting LoneStarWeather:

And did you have the same perspective on Bush's response to Katrina?


No reply? I guess that answers my question.
3897. pottery
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

And did you have the same perspective on Bush's response to Katrina?

Yes I did.
I was under the impression that there was an entire department, with the authority to deal with an emergency like Katrina.
But it failed. What was his name? Nagin or something? Human frailty. Wrong man for the job. Bad moves. Whatever...
Quoting pottery:

I am questioning whether it is 'the Gov' or the minor individual on the ground who, for whatever reason, did not do what he/she was supposed to be doing in monitoring the Regulations that are already in place.
Yes, politically the buck stops at the top, but to blame the "Government" is a bit far fetched you know...


I think you misread my post Pottery, and I was not exactly clear with my wandering... my blame for the leak goes to the contractors for poor performance and decisions that circumvented procedure and ignored clues that things were going south...not the Government.


IMO, the Government could have done a better job of trying to protect the coast and lessen the impact upon the people, but this disaster "is" unprecedented and lessons will sometimes be learned the hard way.
Quoting pottery:

Yes I did.
I was under the impression that there was an entire department, with the authority to deal with an emergency like Katrina.
But it failed. What was his name? Nagin or something? Human frailty. Wrong man for the job. Bad moves. Whatever...

Ok, fair enough. Just checking. Thanks for the reply.
A good read, lots of similarities.
Doubt many remember this.
Ixtoc I, well blowout
3902. pottery
Quoting indianrivguy:


I think you misread my post Pottery, and I was not exactly clear with my wandering... my blame for the leak goes to the contractors for poor performance and decisions that circumvented procedure and ignored clues that things were going south...not the Government.


IMO, the Government could have done a better job of trying to protect the coast and lessen the impact upon the people, but this disaster "is" unprecedented and lessons will sometimes be learned the hard way.

I agree with this entirely. Sorry if I misunderstood.
3903. Dakster
Quoting kingy:


it is an enviromental disaster that they will write books about in the future, and it is unfolding right before our eyes with the media mostly blind to what is coming.

The currents will be spreading this oil far and wide over coming months, many storms bringing oil to beaches and marshes, in the end few will escape it.

Not so long in the future people will start rethinking their views of eating anything caught in the gulf.

The loop currents combined with storm effects will be the perfect way to distribute this to all shores on most coastal counties. Sinking oil will systematically foul each ocean layer they penetrate.

It hasn't really hit home as a major disaster yet and won't until the first big slick comes in. That could be in a weeks time with the onshore winds. Then other slicks will wash ashore but in general the media will be behind the game so far as the significance of this.

I think their will be oil-impact forecasts accompanying hurricane warnings by the NHC by the time this geyser has finished spewing.



The worst part is that BP really won't be paying for this mess. WE ALL WILL for generations to come. My grandkids, grandkids will be paying for this.


BTW - This isn't totally Obama's fault - yet. This is the result of policies put into play a long time ago. The disaster just happened to hit now. In order for ME to decide about blaming Obama for this mess, I need to see HOW he continues to respond to the crisis. Anyone who thinks ONE MAN can re-write the S.O.P.'s for EVERY Federal Governemnt Agency the minute they take office is naive to the inner workings of U.S. Government. He sets the general policies and directions he wants each agency to take and can make corrections along the way. But to say MMS was fine under the past president's before and now all of a sudden it is messed up isn't taking a fair look at the whole situation. To be honest with I knew we had an agency that overlooked oil exploration, but I didn't know it was called MMS until now - I bet many folks on this board didn't either.
Quoting Dakster:



The worst part is that BP really won't be paying for this mess. WE ALL WILL for generations to come. My grandkids, grandkids will be paying for this.


BTW - This isn't totally Obama's fault - yet. This is the result of policies put into play a long time ago. The disaster just happened to hit now. In order for ME to decide about blaming Obama for this mess, I need to see HOW he continues to respond to the crisis. Anyone who thinks ONE MAN can re-write the S.O.P.'s for EVERY Federal Governemnt Agency the minute they take office is naive to the inner workings of U.S. Government. He sets the general policies and directions he wants each agency to take and can make corrections along the way. But to say MMS was fine under the past president's before and now all of a sudden it is messed up isn't taking a fair look at the whole situation. To be honest with I knew we had an agency that overlooked oil exploration, but I didn't know it was called MMS until now - I bet many folks on this board didn't either.


a
reasoned
view
3905. pottery
Well said, Dakster.
3906. bappit
Nagin was the mayor of New Orleans. The head of FEMA was the guy in the phrase "Heckuva job, Brownie." Human frailty gave us that quote for sure. There but for the grace of God go I.
what happened to blogging about weather? when did this turn into a political platform?
3908. pottery
Quoting bappit:
Nagin was the mayor of New Orleans. The head of FEMA was the guy in the phrase "Heckuva job, Brownie." Human frailty gave us that quote for sure. There but for the grace of God go I.

LOL I stand corrected.
"Brownie" was the Hero of the day.
What would we have done without him?
Quoting pottery:
Well said, Dakster.


I agree too.... "Well Said"

Taco :o)
Quoting Dakster:



The worst part is that BP really won't be paying for this mess. WE ALL WILL for generations to come. My grandkids, grandkids will be paying for this.


BTW - This isn't totally Obama's fault - yet. This is the result of policies put into play a long time ago. The disaster just happened to hit now. In order for ME to decide about blaming Obama for this mess, I need to see HOW he continues to respond to the crisis. Anyone who thinks ONE MAN can re-write the S.O.P.'s for EVERY Federal Governemnt Agency the minute they take office is naive to the inner workings of U.S. Government. He sets the general policies and directions he wants each agency to take and can make corrections along the way. But to say MMS was fine under the past president's before and now all of a sudden it is messed up isn't taking a fair look at the whole situation. To be honest with I knew we had an agency that overlooked oil exploration, but I didn't know it was called MMS until now - I bet many folks on this board didn't either.
3911. pottery
Quoting keywestdingding:
what happened to blogging about weather? when did this turn into a political platform?

We just waiting on some weather...
And Dr. Masters has the Oil Leak as the topic of this blog. Sort of. So we were trying to decide who actually caused it. Otherwise he would not have had a topic. Kind of convoluted, like the weather.
Totally agree with your comments..Drakster
3913. hydrus
Quoting nccatman:
Quick question. If Agatha crosses into the Atlantic do they rename it Alex or just keep the name it already has? Thanks all. Been reading for years but first post.
It would get a name from the Atlantic list.
I agree with you Pottery...Oil is the topic right now with Agatha down grading. No matter what is happening now...Storms or Oil...both are disasters and people need to talk about it to help them ease their pain ...the pain we all feel in some way or the other.
3916. pottery
Talking about weather-- a nice sunny morning here, after a week of tropical wave, heavy rain and some flooding.
A new wave coming off Africa needs to see if it can keep it's moisture with it and get to 50W or so. Then we will have some more fun.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
*Final Advisory* - 5 am EDT Graphics Update
**All graphics by AllStar17
Greed caused it.
all this oil talk is old... is Jen Carfagno looking hot, or what???
Met Service of Jamaica Website

May 30, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Broad Trough across the central Caribbean, including Jamaica.

Comment…
Comment… The Trough will remain across the central Caribbean until Tuesday.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Expect scattered showers over central and western parishes, mostly cloudy elsewhere.

This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will affect sections of most parishes.

Tonight… Partly cloudy.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Mon/Tue… Isolated afternoon showers mainly across northern parishes.
Wed… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Regionally… A Tropical Wave across the southeastern Caribbean.

grb
cloudy in my location
3922. pottery
Quoting nola70119:
Greed caused it.

To a large degree, yes.
I still demand that electricity is cheap, gas is far cheaper than rum, and that plastic bottles cost nothing.
Dont raise any prices, or I will vote you out. Simple.
3923. bappit
You're on a roll, Pottery.
From 8 a.m NHC Discussion:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 8N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT A LOW AMPLITUDE WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND IS CURRENTLY SUPPRESSED DUE TO A STRONG SAHARAN AIR LAYER TO THE NORTH. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W S OF 11N MOVING NW 20-25 KT. WAVE REMAINS WELL DEFINED AS A CYCLONIC CURVATURE MAINLY BETWEEN 8N-11N AND ALSO REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION/SHOWERS.

CATLoop

3925. pottery
Hi Kimoskee. All quiet in the capital?
Quoting HurricaneObserver:

What do you all think of the WRF model? I don't see much discussion of it on here.

NAM is a WRF platform. So is RUC.

I don't know of anyone running a basin-wide WRF or global WRF, but it could be done.
Quoting pottery:

To a large degree, yes.
I still demand that electricity is cheap, gas is far cheaper than rum, and that plastic bottles cost nothing.
Dont raise any prices, or I will vote you out. Simple.

plastic bottles are made oil.

3928. pottery
Quoting bappit:
You're on a roll, Pottery.

Yeah, I'm standing here on my soapbox, but the crowds have all gone to see the latest version of Robin Hood.
I got to get my priorities seen to!
Flash flood prone areas

3930. Grothar
If memory serves, last year many on here were blaming the "tree huggers" for not letting us drill for oil in Alaska and off-shore of the U.S. The refrain was "Dig, Dig, Dig". Perhaps we should blame the "tree-huggers for not fighting harder in asking for more federal regulations. I believe we have all watched too many movies in which disasters are prevented in the last few minutes of the movie and we have our heroes, when the cavalry arrives.

This is not the time for name-game playing. It is an event which may eventually affect the entire world, and yes, even our weather. Like it or not, the rest of the world will be watching how well we respond to it. It must give our enemies great joy to see how united we are as a people.

On a lighter note, does anyone believe that ex-Agatha will make it into the Caribbean? I personally think Guatemala should have done more in preventing this system from crossing over and possibly threaten our shores.
3931. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

plastic bottles are made oil.


You dont say!!
And if we did not have oilwells, we would have no thinners to get the tar off our toes.
The mind boggles at the thought.
Drill, baby, drill.
Good Morning Pottery! So far so good. Hope it says that way. Just got back from church so I haven't heard the news this morning. But everything sounds quiet.
Quoting atmoaggie:

NAM is a WRF platform. So is RUC.

I don't know of anyone running a basin-wide WRF or global WRF, but it could be done.

myFoxHurricane runs both an Atlantic and Caribean WRF. I was just wondering how accurate it is. For example does it have the same problems with convective feadback early in the season?
Destructive winds smash into NSW


A violent low pressure system is delivering destructive winds, heavy rainfall and huge seas along southern coasts of New South Wales.

The system developed overnight from a trough that pushed through the southeast. Currently, several low pressure centres are spinning off the main system.

Since the early hours of Sunday, destructive wind gusts beyond 130km/h have been recorded. Montague Island was blasted by 135km/h wind gusts at around 6am, the strongest in at least eight years.

The effects of the low have been felt in Victoria too, with Mt Hotham hit by a gust of 120km/h, the highest in nine months.

Rainfall has been heavy too, with showers infiltrating the Southern Tablelands. Totals this morning in just six or seven hours were:

- Mt Darragh 85mm.
- Eden 47mm.
- Cooma 40mm.
- Nimmitabel 79mm.

Conditions offshore have deteriorated significantly, with maximum wave heights off Eden reaching between six and eleven metres.

Towards Sydney, sunshine and light winds are bringing a pleasant day with little evidence of the maelstrom to the south.

The weather will head north though, but Sydney may now miss the worst of it.



© Weatherzone 2010
3935. hydrus
Quoting scottc42:
all this oil talk is old... is Jen Carfagno looking hot, or what???
She always looks hot.....:) :) :)
3936. aquak9
Quoting AussieStorm:

plastic bottles are made oil.



Aussie!!! NO!!! I'm addicted already! Does he ever drink form the water bottle? EVER? How long do I have to watch this??

AAAUURRGHHH!!!
3937. pottery
Quoting kimoskee:
Good Morning Pottery! So far so good. Hope it says that way. Just got back from church so I haven't heard the news this morning. But everything sounds quiet.

Excellent.
Ackee for breakfast?
130kph winds lash NSW south coast

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) is warning residents on the south coast of NSW that a combination of low pressure systems is creating dangerous weather conditions, with gale-force winds and heavy rain.

BOM meteorologist Rob Webb says there are already wind gusts blowing at more than 130 kilometres per hour that have damaged homes. He says the winds will increase throughout the day as the system moves up the coast.

"It's already happening down there now, so we've already have seen winds in excess of 130 kilometres an hour as we speak on the south coast," he said.

"During the course of this morning and into the afternoon these type of conditions will continue to develop.

"The event is already happening and will continue to do so for the remainder of the day as these low pressure systems spin in off the Tasman Sea."

Mr Webb says the worst-affected areas are around Montague Island and Narooma, with the storm moving towards Bateman's Bay later in the day.

"There's three main areas of concern to the community: one would be the very damaging winds and there already has been some damage on the south coast of New South Wales with damage to homes, very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding and possible riverine flooding," he said.

"We have flood watches out and also very dangerous swells, very large swells, 8 to 9-metre swells hitting the coastline. So today is not a day to be down at the beach at all."

Torrential rains and gale-force winds are forecast to hit the south coast and eastern parts of the Southern Tablelands this morning and Phil Campbell from the SES says crews are also preparing for flash flooding.

"We have all of our volunteers across the south coast - and that's some hundreds of volunteers - who are on standby for this weather event," he said.

"We're also poised to bring in volunteers from other parts of NSW should weather conditions deteriorate."

Heavy rain is expected to cause flooding in the Bega, Moruya, Tuross and Shoalhaven Rivers this morning, and flash flooding is also predicted for Wollongong.

After lashing the south coast, the weather system is expected to track northwards, bringing rain and wind to the Illawarra region.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a storm force wind warning for the south coast and a gale warning for the Illawarra coast.

It also warned of strong winds for the Sydney coast and the Hunter coast.

Emergency services advised people in the area to stay clear of creeks, storm drains and causeways.

Predictions that waves will exceed five metres in the surf zone have also prompted a warning to stay well away from surf-exposed areas.

© ABC 2010
Crews standby as wild weather heads north

Emergency crews are on standby as severe weather continues to lash the New South Wales south coast and a cluster of low pressure systems heads north toward Wollongong and Sydney.

Winds of up to 120 kilometres per hour have hit parts of the coast, damaging property and causing large-scale blackouts.

The low pressure system has moved further up the coast and is now sitting over Ulladulla and Bateman's Bay, where there has been reported of wind gusts of 95 kilometres per hour.

A forecaster at the Bureau says the winds are expected to worsen in the area.

Rob Webb from the Bureau of Meteorology says the system will gradually move north but the winds will weaken.

"The winds will extend up towards places like Wollongong, but we're expecting them to lose a lot of their bite by the time that does occur," he said.

New South Wales Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan is warning people south of Sydney to be prepared as the storm moves further up the coast.

"We just reiterate the warning to people not to go into flooded waterways or creeks, make sure they're staying a bit back from the coast, obviously the waves on the coast are pretty severe," he said.

Earlier today a surfer was taken to hospital with suspected spinal injuries at Cronulla in Sydney's south.

The State Emergency Service says they've had around 230 calls for help, with Narooma and Bermagui the worst hit towns. The SES number is 132 500.

SES spokesman Colin Johnson says extra crews are travelling from Sydney and the Southern Highlands.

"The low is very slow at the moment and it's still dumping rain right across the southern south-east section of New South Wales," he said.

"Calls for assistance have been focused from Moruya or Batemans Bay south to even as far as Eden."

Mr Johnson says teams from other areas around the state are providing assistance, and more are on stand-by as the low heads toward Wollongong.

"As the low moves north our focus of attention of course will start moving into the more populous areas of our region," he said.

He says the low will reach the Wollongong area in the next 12 to 18 hours.

Peter Higgins from the SES says some houses have been damaged.

"There has been some unroofing but not complete houses lost," he said.

Mr Higgins says communities will experience a calm patch before wind and rain re-intensifies.

"This low has a number of cells that will come across land at different points along the south coast," he said.

"The communities will have an impact of heaving rain or wind or both, then there may be a lull, then there may be a follow on after that."

The weather bureau says Narooma, Moruya and Bateman's Bay were copping the brunt of the wild weather this afternoon.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Gina Laurie says there is still a chance of flash flooding later today.

"There is still a possibility that the rain will pick up through the afternoon and potentially cause some flash flooding in some areas," she said.

She says the low pressure system is due to cross the coast late this afternoon.

"It's expected it will be somewhere in the north part of the south coast or possibly parts of the Illawarra, that would be late this afternoon," she said.

"That's when we're expecting the more serious weather to impact parts of the Illawarra."

The ABC's Thomas Oriti, reporting from Bega on the far south coast, described some of the damage.

"There's a lot of debris on the road, the arms of trees all over the place, very, very wet and gusty," he said.

"Power is flicking on and off quite often. We have heard that all the way down the coast from towns such as Quaama to Eden, the power is out completely."

Electricity wires have collapsed onto local roads and more than 9,000 people have been left without power in the Eden, Bega, Bodalla and Narooma areas.

Country Energy says it has returned power to 2,000 Bombala homes, but 2,000 more in Tuross Heads remain blacked-out.

The energy supplier says the chances of everyone getting power back on before nightfall are very remote.

The Princes Highway is blocked at various locations.

Earlier today the wild weather caused road closures in the worst-affected areas of the south coast between Bega and Ulladulla.

Police Inspector Jason Edmunds from the South Coast Local Area Command says the Princes Highway is closed at Cobargo and there is very limited access at Bodalla.

He says fallen trees are blocking the Snowy Mountains Highway at Brown Mountain and crews from the local council are working with the RTA to clear the roads.

"We're all doing the best we can at the moment, with the conditions remaining the same and trees still coming down at different places," he said.

"We're advising motorists to avoid unnecessary travel and certainly to be very careful of their speeds given the fact that they wont know what's around the next corner."

New South Wales Emergency Services Minister Steve Whan says it is too early to tell how much damage the storms are causing.

"It wouldn't be the worst that we've ever seen but it's certainly causing some damage at the moment," he said.

"[It's] hard to know until it finishes exactly what that total damage will be, about 160 calls is not massive at the moment but we are expecting that to increase over the day as the storm progresses north up the coast."

A flood watch is in place for the Bega, Moruya, Tuross and Shoalhaven rivers and the weather bureau is warning of possible flash flooding at Wollongong and other areas below the Illawarra escarpment.

The owner of a bed and breakfast at Eden, Fay Speer, says she has had power outages, heavy rain and strong winds.

"I'm not sure how much rain we had but it absolutely teemed all night and then the winds came up early this morning," she said.

"Now we've had a couple of blackouts early this morning and the seas are very, very rough."

Farmer James Thomson lives on a property between Narooma and Moruya and says he is preparing for more heavy rain.

"It had been a little bit slacked off there, but it's just coming in really heavy now," he said.

"It was windy, the wind has backed off now, but around 7 and before that it was just a howling gale.

"I think there's a fair bit of rain yet to come by the look of it, out to the west there."


© ABC 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:

NAM is a WRF platform. So is RUC.

I don't know of anyone running a basin-wide WRF or global WRF, but it could be done.


Link

Has not run recently, but does during the season.
Quoting aquak9:


Aussie!!! NO!!! I'm addicted already! Does he ever drink form the water bottle? EVER? How long do I have to watch this??

AAAUURRGHHH!!!

click on it and you will drop food, drop 1 near the water bottle and it will drink.
**REPOST**
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA
*Final Advisory* - 5 am EDT Graphics Update
**All graphics by AllStar17
Hey Pottery, (or any one else who may want to answer) With no end in sight to the oil leak, should the islands start worrying about their beaches specifically Jamaica and Cayman?
Quoting scottc42:
all this oil talk is old... is Jen Carfagno looking hot, or what???

Who????
Quoting pottery:

Excellent.
Ackee for breakfast?

French toast and bacon! The ackee tree isn't bearing and I used the last of my frozen ones last week. I personally don't like the tinned ones.
Damn Aussie, Now I'm addicted....... Good evening
3947. pottery
Quoting kimoskee:
Hey Pottery, (or any one else who may want to answer) With no end in sight to the oil leak, should the islands start worrying about their beaches specifically Jamaica and Cayman?

No way I can answer that.

and NEW BLOG!!
Quoting msgambler:
Damn Aussie, Now I'm addicted....... Good evening

hahaha & Good Morning.
as a survivor of Katrina and a life long resident of st. Bernard parish i can tell you it wasn't the federal govt. who screwed us. it was our local govt. gov. blanco refused to let the federal govt. in at first. but people love to forget or not even report on that issue. when she did give the ok for them to come in they did and that's when the money started coming in and the water started getting pumped out. when that money started coming in our local govt. worked around the clock trying to decide how much of that money they wanted and how much they were going to give to the public. our local govt. put together programs such as the road home and lra. both claimed they ran out of money a few times. they got more money from the feds each time they so called ran out of funds. then at the end of the programs they had a surplus of funds, which then lead to the question" what will we do with the rest of the money we screwed to people of Louisiana out of?" i have yet to hear another word about that surplus and what they did with it. gov. blanco halted efforts by the feds after Katrina. that is fact! i watched the local news conferences, and listened to wwl radio, and i remember all the conversations that went on. i guess you have to be local to remember that, or not have your mind made up by talking points. is saw the facts and lived through the facts of Katrina, the feds, and our local govt. Mississippi had no problem recovering. you know why? because their local govt. didn't screw them. their gov. gave them the money and said that's it. you rebuild, buy new, or whatever but this is it. our local govt. had to get their hands on the majority of the money that the feds gave us. you can talk about the people in the super dome. yeah, that was horrible, but i remember nagin coming on t.v. several times saying the super dome is not a shelter. if you feel you must come here bring food water and blankets, and clothing to last at least 3 days per person. did anyone who went to the super dome do that? no!! i watched people with kids in brand new cars pull up with nothing and admit they had nothing to eat or drink for their kids. if you have a car you could have gotten out. i guess i am one of the dying breed who still believes in personal responsibility. people were warned about the dangers of this storm and the dangers of going to the super dome with no food or water, and how long it may take for them to get help several times. this is the behavior that you see in a generation of nanny state. people depend too much on others rescuing them, instead of taking the lead and rescuing yourself. i was a poor single mother, with a piece of crap car that ran hot all the time and i managed to get my family out. we didn't get far, but we got far enough where we didn't drown. had to sleep in a car and make a deal with a hotel owner to let me clean the hotel rooms so i could have a room for free. its so sad that we have forgotten how to strap up our boots and take leadership of our own lives and safety. god bless our troops and happy memorial day!
sorry but i'm so sick of hearing katrina and bush. he's gone. its been almost 2 years. if bush was president right now, this would be his problem and rightfully so. did obama personally cause the spill? no, but there were signs ignored a year ago by this administration. bp just won a saftey award. policies don't work if there not enforced
Quoting Grothar:
If memory serves, last year many on here were blaming the "tree huggers" for not letting us drill for oil in Alaska and off-shore of the U.S. The refrain was "Dig, Dig, Dig". Perhaps we should blame the "tree-huggers for not fighting harder in asking for more federal regulations. I believe we have all watched too many movies in which disasters are prevented in the last few minutes of the movie and we have our heroes, when the cavalry arrives.

This is not the time for name-game playing. It is an event which may eventually affect the entire world, and yes, even our weather. Like it or not, the rest of the world will be watching how well we respond to it. It must give our enemies great joy to see how united we are as a people.

On a lighter note, does anyone believe that ex-Agatha will make it into the Caribbean? I personally think Guatemala should have done more in preventing this system from crossing over and possibly threaten our shores.

Dare I say it? Oh, alright.

Could it be that all of the available environmental lobbying, legislation, attention, and even voter interest has been exhausted by AGW for the last 10 years all the while common sense legislation, with clear, positive results have been neglected entirely. And over sight by the environmental watch dogs has instead been getting the message out about cap and trade, of late, IPCC before that.

I have said before that since we cannot do without fossil fuels right now, we should be effectively regulating industries that lead to environmental pollution while funding alternate energy research until the time comes that we can do without crude oil.

Is this disaster a direct result? Probably not. Is it an indirect result of ALL of the think-tanks trying their level best to convince a populace and their representation that we need to arbitrarily raise the costs of maintaining our standard or living? And no one is overseeing what environmental concerns exist from drilling in deep waters without the ability to close an open well? Possibly.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Link

Has not run recently, but does during the season.

Right, I knew about that one...forgot.
3952. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

Who????
She is a meteorologist at The Weather Channel.
3953. Xyrus
Quoting pottery:

To a large degree, yes.
I still demand that electricity is cheap, gas is far cheaper than rum, and that plastic bottles cost nothing.
Dont raise any prices, or I will vote you out. Simple.


When it comes to "What's Best" vs. "What's Best For Me", "What's Best For Me" usually wins. Until we change that we will continue to get the government that we deserve.

I agree that there should have been a larger response by the government, however the government's initial response was based on what BP told them (which at best could be considered a gross underestimation). When the real magnitude became apparent it was too late.

I think one big lesson here is that corporations will always act in their best interests (we should have learned this by now), especially in situations like this where damage control is priority one. We should ALWAYS assume the worst and respond accordingly. Sure, it may end up being overkill, but in situations like this it is far better to overreact at the beginning than discover later that the problem is worse than everyone thought.

Today I was just reading an article about how BP knew there were issues even further back than was currently known and yet still continued to press onward. BP should be dismantled with it's assets sold off to other companies, and everyone responsible for the chain of decisions (those who ignored the reported warnings and problems) leading up to this disaster should be imprisoned in facilities close enough to the areas affected where they can go out in prison jumpsuits to clean up the mess.

~X~
3954. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Dare I say it? Oh, alright.

Could it be that all of the available environmental lobbying, legislation, attention, and even voter interest has been exhausted by AGW for the last 10 years all the while common sense legislation, with clear, positive results have been neglected entirely. And over sight by the environmental watch dogs has instead been getting the message out about cap and trade, of late, IPCC before that.

I have said before that since we cannot do without fossil fuels right now, we should be effectively regulating industries that lead to environmental pollution while funding alternate energy research until the time comes that we can do without crude oil.

Is this disaster a direct result? Probably not. Is it an indirect result of ALL of the think-tanks trying their level best to convince a populace and their representation that we need to arbitrarily raise the costs of maintaining our standard or living? And no one is overseeing what environmental concerns exist from drilling in deep waters without the ability to close an open well? Possibly.



You are 80% correct, as usual. You know I could never agree with you 100% atmo. LOL
There is much less lobbying on AGW than you would be led to believe. Rather, it is the lack of lobbying on the rebuilding of our infrastructure that has been neglected and the oversights on the energy industry, with which I totally agree with you. We simply cannot survive without oil at this time and that is a fact. How we control it is of vital interest to the entire world. (By the way, how is your buoy watching coming?)
Quoting kimoskee:
Hey Pottery, (or any one else who may want to answer) With no end in sight to the oil leak, should the islands start worrying about their beaches specifically Jamaica and Cayman?

their is an end in sight. its august. lol! that's forever away in this situation. but i don't think i would worry about it until it gets close and is inevitable that its going into the loop current. and i think i heard it on here that its not looking like its going to happen now. i may be wrong on that, correct me. but really maybe all should get a plan in place to fight it off if it does come your way. i would like to see a million boat owners/americans get together and circle the spill and just fight it like it was terrorist trying to invade us. that would be awesome! and when the feds or the coast guard try to stop them, they scream WOLVERINES!!! and take off into the gulf. sorry, just watched red dawn. lol! get prepared early. just in case.
hey guys I am finding somthing weired with the remnants of Agatha
#1 Most of the heaver clouds and showers are moving more eastward
#2 The strongest vort is between Honduras, Guatemala, and Belize going into the GOH
#3 the (TCFP)=Tropical cyclone formation prob is very much good in the area
#4 But the 700-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 1000-1010 mbs) is taking it north
#5 BUT at the 500-850 mb Mean Wind Analysis (TC Sfc Pressure Range 990-999 mbs)
it is going ENE

so any ideas the graphics as follows









Other major US-affecting offshore blowouts averaged 8,000to10,000barrels per day over 10days at Santa Barbara, and 11,000to12,000barrels per day over 295days at Ixtoc I, Gulf of Mexico.
Initial spill rate at Ixtoc I was ~30,000barrels per day.
The ExxonValdez wreck spilled ~11million gallons or ~262,000barrels in total.

Three different methodologies used by UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey assessment teams have independently arrived at a minimum spill rate of 12,000barrels per day:
with the surface survey team coming up with 15,500plus-or-minus3500 barrels per day;
the plume-source measurement team coming up with 18,500plus-or-minus6500 barrels per day;
with the third team's study as yet incomplete and its methodology remaining unannounced.

Using the newly agreed-upon minimum rate of 12,000barrels per day, the DeepwaterHorizon spill will have released two times as much as the ExxonValdez shortly after noon on 3June2010.
Using the 17,000barrels per day average of the two released USGS studies, the DeepwaterHorizon spill will have released three times as much as the ExxonValdez before dawn on 6June2010.

In 2005, TropicalStorm Arlene reached near-hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico on June10th. And passed near what is now the DeepHorizon spill area before making landfall at the extreme western end of the Florida panhandle on June11th.
Comparisons with the day before TropicalStorm Arlene began spinning on 8June2005

30May2010

7Jun2005

30May2010

7Jun2005

30May2010