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Looking back at Hurricane Gustav's record 211 mph wind gust

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:28 AM GMT on December 30, 2008

As we look back at the weather events of 2008, perhaps the most impressive record set during the year occurred during Hurricane Gustav, which pounded Cuba as a Category 4 hurricane in August. Gustav set a new world record for highest wind gust ever measured in a hurricane. As Gustav passed over the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station in the western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, on the afternoon of August 30, 2008, a wind gust of 211 mph (94.4 m/s) was recorded (it was originally pegged at 212 mph, but has been "downgraded" to 211 mph after an official review by the World Meteorological Organization). The powerful winds blew down the anemometer, and it is possible that higher gusts occurred after the instrument failed. Not only is this the highest wind speed ever measured in a hurricane, it is the second highest wind gust ever measured at a non-mountain location on Earth, and is the third highest wind gust ever measured on the surface of the planet. The highest wind gust in recorded history is the amazing 253 mph reading recorded on Barrow Island, Australia, during Tropical Cyclone Olivia in 1996. The second highest wind speed ever measured was 231 mph (370 km/hr) on the top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire, on April 12, 1934, during passage of an extratropical storm. The fourth highest wind gust on record was the 207 mph gust measured in Greenland at Thule Air Force Base on March 6, 1972. The previous highest wind gust measured in a hurricane was 186 mph at Blue Hill Observatory, Massachusetts, during the notorious 1938 "Long Island Express" hurricane.


Figure 1. Anemometer used to measure the record 211 mph gust in Hurricane Gustav. Gustav's powerful winds flattened the instrument against the roof of the observing station. Image credit: Jose M. Rubiera Torres, Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba.

Is this a believable record?
The instrument used for the measurement in Gustav was a Dines pressure tube anemometer mounted on the roof of the weather office. According to Jose M. Rubiera Torres of Cuba's Instituto de Meteorologia, "The graph is neat and the instrument was in perfect technical working condition. The wind peaked up to 340 km/h and then the anemometer mast fell over the concrete roof of the station's building, sharply interrupting the measurement. The graph [Figure 2], shows that wind gusts were increasing at a regular pace with time, until the instrument broke down when it got to the 340 km/h mark." Dines anemometers have a proven track record of reliability, and have been used in Cuba for over 60 years. A formal committee under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) certified the record in 2009.


Figure 2. Trace of the Dines anemometer used to measure the record 211 mph gust in Hurricane Gustav. Image credit: Jose M. Rubiera Torres, Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba.

How did such a strong gust occur?
At the time Hurricane Gustav moved over the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station, the storm was rated a Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph, gusting to 185 mph. When the peak wind gust of 211 mph was measured at 22:35 GMT, the western eyewall of Gustav was over the anemometer site, as seen on Cuban radar (Figure 3). The town of Paso Real de San Diego is at an elevation of about 40 meters, and lies 25 km inland, about 12 km south of a rugged line of mountains up to 700 meters high. The counter-clockwise flow of air around Gustav's eyewall meant that the winds arriving at Paso Real de San Diego were forced to pass over these mountains first. The mountains probably focused and accelerated the winds through gaps between the peaks, and the air accelerated further as it rushed downhill under the force of gravity. Strong downbursts due to collapsing precipitation cores inside Gustav's eyewall probably contributed to the extreme gusts. When hurricanes make landfall, the intense thunderstorm cells that comprise the eyewall sometimes collapse suddenly, sending a downward cascade of intense winds to the surface. When this rush of wind hits the ground, it spreads out in all directions, forming a strong surface wind event known as a downburst. It has been theorized that some of the extreme damage noted in Florida during Hurricane Ivan in 2004 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 may have been associated with downbursts from collapsing eyewall thunderstorm cells. This behavior may also be responsible for some of the extreme damage in Mississippi from Hurricane Katrina. Animations of infrared satellite imagery available from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS Satellite Blog show that the eyewall of Gustav collapsed during passage over the high mountains to the north of Paso Real de San Diego, but this occurred after the world record wind gust was measured.


Figure 3. Radar image of Hurricane Gustav (top) at 22:25 GMT on August 30 2008, five minutes before the world record 211 mph hurricane wind gust was measured. The site of the Paso Real de San Diego meteorological station where the record was set is marked with a red dot. A topographic map (bottom) shows the line of mountains up to 1200 meters high that lies just north of the town. The counter-clockwise flow of air around the eye of Gustav brought the strongest winds of Gustav across the mountain range then downhill to Paso Real de San Diego. Radar image credit: Instituto de Meteorologia of Cuba. Topographic map image credit: Wikipedia.

Note: this post was updated in 2010 to reflect the official WMO review of Gustav's wind gust, plus the addition of the new World Record wind gust set in TC Olivia in 1996.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting presslord:
What an idiot he was...on Penny's Creek...it's lovely...

Penny's Creek? Starts at the Stono were the Stono Marina is - and dead-ends somewhere in the marsh?
KEH....you're good...actually, at high tide it connects to the ICW...
Quoting presslord:
KEH....you're good...actually, at high tide it connects to the ICW...

Does it! We tried one time, but became hopelessly lost. Getting dark. Trawling motor gave out. Closer to low tide, with the tide coming in. Here we are paddling with one oar back to the Stono (against the tide, of course - probably would have been just as easy to slog through the plough mud). No-See-Ums laughing in our ears.
Lord....the tide really runs through there...don't think I'm man enough to paddle against it....
1005. vortfix
There's a week of bad weather ahead for a lot of folks:


Photobucket

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2009


LONG TERM...SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO SETTING UP FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION.

THE STALLED BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...TRENDING FARTHER N THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. DEEP
MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOP ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT AS 850
MB FLOW INCREASES. FORCING INTENSIFIES SIGNIFICANTLY TUESDAY. LOW
LEVEL JET FLOW IS FORECAST TO REACH 60 KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTER AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS IN TO HELP DESTABILIZE THE AIR
MASS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 65-67 DEG RANGE AND 850 MB THETAE
VALUES AROUND 330. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KTS WILL
ACCOMPANY HELICITY VALUES FROM 200-300 WITH 70-80 KT WINDS AT 500
MB. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AS IS THE
RISK FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IN INTENSE UPPER DIV IN THE RIGHT
REAR QUADRANT OF AN INTENSE UPPER JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO TREND SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH TIME. WILL CONTINUE THE
MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HWO.

CONVECTION DIMINISHES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WHEN
THE SECOND LOBE OF THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD
LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. MOS TEMPERATURES LOOK A BIT TOO WARM
CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
COOLER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER SURFACE/850
MB HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY...LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION REDEVELOPS
IN SWLY 850 MB FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.
SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES NOTED ON FRONTAL SPEED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS AND EURO ALMOST 12 HOURS DIFFERENT IN FRONTAL
PLACEMENT FOR SATURDAY. FOLLOWED COOLER GFS MOS FOR NOW WHICH
REFLECTED FASTER GFS SOLUTION BUT THIS WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED WITH
TIME.


Photobucket

Quoting presslord:
Lord....the tide really runs through there...don't think I'm man enough to paddle against it....
It was grueling - fortunately, we had brought some sustenance (for me it was a tumbler of rum and coke). The mosquitoes were incentive.

I learned to take Penny's Creek tidal influence seriously when docking at Stono Marina. One might have the craft moving along at a nice slow pace, have everything lined up for docking. Then as you pass the entrance to the creek, you would be sucked toward the creek (in coming tide) or pushed back into the Stono (out going). Quite a surprise for the unaware. Not a problem for the bridge-side of the marina, but those on the south side learned fast.
the current at Buzzard's Roost and Stono make docking and undocking a nightmare....Bohicket is worse....
Quoting presslord:
the current at Buzzard's Roost and Stono make docking and undocking a nightmare....Bohicket is worse....

I agree Bohicket is worse - just the layout of the docks makes it hazardous.
1009. surfmom
Quoting KEHCharleston:

It will be interesting to see what lowercal has to say. Does the magma beneath us experience tidal phases?? Astronomical high tides??
Good, you expressed my wondering better then I could
Mom, do you know if LowerCal checks in every day?

Fog has lifted here on the Charleston Peninsula.

Wondering how Severe made out last night - anyone know?
KEH....my daughter (C of C soph) just did an English research paper on your home....
Quoting presslord:
KEH....my daughter (C of C soph) just did an English research paper on your home....

Fantastic! Did she get a chance to visit here?
yea...she did...she's been in and out of there her whole life...her 16th birthday party was there...actually, I think she kinda cheated...she can recite the history of that place in her sleep....
KEH...I remember as a child going to the 100th anniversary ceremony of the place...my grandmother spoke...she and her sister graduated from the school there (their father was a vet)....
1015. surfmom
wondered about Severe myself -- but it seems the rain stopped in time.... were the pumps working??

I posted the question on LowerCal's blog -- he seems to check in frequently

is this the reformed presslord.....? I need to know if I have to put my halo on, and put my brain on filter
surmom....I'm pure as Ivory soap....
1017. surfmom
your heritage sounds so, so Gentrified -- what happen to you Press???? bit of the rogue gene surfaced ehhh?
1018. surfmom
surmom....I'm pure as Ivory soap....

sounds like tub time ROTFL
1019. vortfix
I'm pure as Ivory soap....


LMAO!

A "Crock" of ivory soap!

Press, One of the reasons I enjoy living in Charleston are these relationships we have to each other and to Charleston. Because families have stayed in one location so long, it is inevitable that so many are connected by life's experiences - and that we still ask "Who's your mama?"

MODIFIED - I suspect the difficulties we have faced (hurricanes, fires, war, pestilence, and earthquakes) probably tends to bring us together as well
vort (((((smooch))))
surf....more like petrified....
1023. surfmom
Quoting presslord:
vort (((((smooch))))


LOL I could HEAR that!!!
Severe~ Hey glad it wasn't worse. All about getting it clean & dry as quick as possible now. Hope it didn't get any carpet. That's a bunch of work..
Sounds like severe may have had just enough water to ruin a carpet or certain types of wood floors in one room. Depending on the flooring, he may not have any damage from it.

I think his neighbors got a couple of inches in the house, though.

I think those pumps and the canals can only handle 1 inch the first hour and less than that in the following hours. They got 5.33 inches in about 3.5 hours.
1026. surfmom
MODIFIED - I suspect the difficulties we have faced (hurricanes, fires, war, pestilence, and earthquakes) probably tends to bring us together as well

Just the difficulties.... ???? howz about the pleasures..like mint julep tea, or southern hospitality...... (this has always intrigue the Northerner in me.... what exactly is Southern Hospitiality and does it follow behind the heels/sips of Southern Comfort.... all of which sound very inviting to my New York state of mind...or imagination

cough, cough -- OK back to the weather...w/out Orca overseeing me and my long run (which tames me --just ask spouse) I see myself getting into trouble or bum,bum, bum.... banned--
1027. surfmom
I think those pumps and the canals can only handle 1 inch the first hour and less than that in the following hours. They got 5.33 inches in about 3.5 hours.

This is the best they can do -- bit unnerving -- how is it the Dutch have such an incredible system?
1028. surfmom
I'm out - time to RUN - See you all this evening!!!
This is Southern hospitality...

If you're wearing a REALLY ugly dress....we'll tell you how pretty it is...and then talk about what poor taste you have behind your back....
Quoting presslord:
This is Southern hospitality...

If you're wearing a REALLY ugly dress....we'll tell you how pretty it is...and then talk about what poor taste you have behind your back....

But always amended with a "bless her heart"
Quoting surfmom:
I think those pumps and the canals can only handle 1 inch the first hour and less than that in the following hours. They got 5.33 inches in about 3.5 hours.

This is the best they can do -- bit unnerving -- how is it the Dutch have such an incredible system?


It is millions of gallons per minute, currently. And the pump design used worldwide is one that was invented in NOLA. I don't know what the Dutch system could handle. I know they have spent a lot more money on levees, but I am not sure about the pumps. I don't think they get the volume of rainfall that NOLA does.
Quoting KEHCharleston:

But always amended with a "bless her heart"


How true!
* Sea-level rise from 1993 and 2006 - 3.3 millimetres per year as measured by satellites %u2014 was higher than the IPCC climate models predicted.

STL has it not slowed to 2mm a year based on satellite measurements since 2005? Yes short time period, but so is 1993-2006.

"Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere by a variety of natural sources, and over 95% of total CO2 emissions would occur even if humans were not present on Earth."


Oh no, not that again. Need to go anyway. TC, all.
"...poor thing..."
I just updated my Weather blog if anyone would like to review....big changes coming!!

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
1037. GBlet
And when we bat our eyes and tell you "that's nice" what we really mean is **** ***!
Quoting TampaSpin:
I just updated my Weather blog if anyone would like to review....big changes coming!!

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link


Thanks TampaSpin - appreciated as always
Morning all :)
You to Presslord
Quoting presslord:
surmom....I'm pure as Ivory soap....


watch out.. that only means he "floats" on dirty bathwater.
Quoting whatwhat1:
* Sea-level rise from 1993 and 2006 - 3.3 millimetres per year as measured by satellites %u2014 was higher than the IPCC climate models predicted.

STL has it not slowed to 2mm a year based on satellite measurements since 2005? Yes short time period, but so is 1993-2006.

"Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere by a variety of natural sources, and over 95% of total CO2 emissions would occur even if humans were not present on Earth."


Quoting whatwhat1:
* Sea-level rise from 1993 and 2006 - 3.3 millimetres per year as measured by satellites %u2014 was higher than the IPCC climate models predicted.

STL has it not slowed to 2mm a year based on satellite measurements since 2005? Yes short time period, but so is 1993-2006.

"Carbon dioxide is released to the atmosphere by a variety of natural sources, and over 95% of total CO2 emissions would occur even if humans were not present on Earth."




Sheesh.. I think you are now number 1 and 2, if you use both your nicks on the list


Where did everyone go????
Morning Orca,
Kinda lazy today. I think folks are in and out.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Morning Orca,
Kinda lazy today. I think folks are in and out.


Thats what I have been doing....
Have to fix the laptop later... its "o" is sticking.. makes it hard to type.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Thats what I have been doing....
Have to fix the laptop later... its "o" is sticking.. makes it hard to type.

Gotcha - When my son was young, we would need to pull the keys off and clean the keyboard fairly often. We got pretty efficient with it. Wish I had a dollar for every mouse we replaced, though.
1046. GBlet
We wrap keyboard and sometimes mouse when the little ones are using puter. Saran wrap truly does have 1001 uses.
offshore pt canaveral it was noticed the schools of sailfish were abundant. offshoot of warmer than normal weather?
I just had to add a 'lol'... Accuweather.com doing the weather report for NFL.com for the playoff games.

Considering some of their reports at times,

'...And in the 1pm kickoff between the Phins and Ravens, it'll start sunny but by the third quarter Hurricane Rene will appear out of nowhere and explosively intensify while being magnetised towards Florida... expect heavy gusts and waterlogged conditions.'

:)
Quoting GBlet:
We wrap keyboard and sometimes mouse when the little ones are using puter. Saran wrap truly does have 1001 uses.



That is brilliant...absolutely brilliant...
1050. GBlet
ziploc works ok for wireless mouse too...
1051. pottery
Hello there.
A nice, lazy day going on here.
Scattered showers persist. The place is Damp and Muddy. The weeds are taking over. The car needs cleaning. The wife is Humming a Joyful Ditty.
I'm all right, Jack......
1052. GBlet
Seems strange that we have not had our usual storm yet. Usually happens right after the holidays. I could really use a snow day or 2.
1053. vortfix
Photobucket
1054. GBlet
Does anyone remember what mask type that patrap talked about using for storm cleanup. We are remodeling and husband has crappy lungs, so I want him protected during this tear out.
1055. GBlet
HELLO, HELLO, HELLO, is there anybody in there?
1056. vortfix
Send him an email and ask him GBlet.

Well the water is drained, however everybody who flooded or nearly flooded in my neighborhood is furious with the Parish President.
I found this on foxnews.com

Here is a passage on the Yellowstone supervolcano from "A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson. He interviews a Yellowstone geologist, Paul Doss. I don't find it reassuring:

I asked him what caused Yellowstone to blow when it did.

"Don't know. Nobody knows. Volcanoes are strange things. We really don't understand them at all. Vesuvius, in Italy, was active for three hundred years until an eruption in 1944 and then it just stopped. It's been silent ever since. Some volcanologists think that it is recharging in a big way, which is a little worrying because two million people live on or around it. But nobody knows."

"And how much warning would you get if Yellowstone was going to go?"
He shrugged. "Nobody was around the last time it blew, so nobody knows what the warning signs are. Probably you would have swarms of earthquakes and some surface uplift and possibly some changes in the patterns of behavior of the geysers and steam vents, but nobody really knows."

"So it could just blow without warning?"

He nodded thoughtfully. The trouble, he explained, is that nearly all the things that would constitute warning signs already exist in some measure at Yellowstone. "Earthquakes are generally a precursor of volcanic eruptions, but the park already has lots of earthquakes-1,260 of them last year. Most of them are too small to be felt, but they are earthquakes nonetheless."


A change in the pattern of geyser eruptions might also be taken as a clue, he said, but these too vary unpredictably. Once the most famous geyser in the park was Excelsior Geyser. It used to erupt regularly and spectacularly to heights of three hundred feet, but in 1888 it just stopped. Then in 1985 it erupted again, though only to a height of eighty feet. Steamboat Geyser is the biggest geyser in the world when it blows, shooting water four hundred feet into the air, but the intervals between its eruptions have ranged from as little as four days to almost fifty years. "If it blew today and again next week, that wouldn't tell us anything at all about what it might do the following week or the week after or twenty years from now," Doss says. "The whole park is so volatile that it's essentially impossible to draw conclusions from almost anything that happens."

Evacuating Yellowstone would never be easy. The park gets some three million visitors a year, mostly in the three peak months of summer. The park's roads are comparatively few and they are kept intentionally narrow, partly to slow traffic, partly to preserve an air of picturesqueness, and partly because of topographical constraints. At the height of summer, it can easily take half a day to cross the park and hours to get anywhere within it. "Whenever people see animals, they just stop, wherever they are," Doss says. "We get bear jams. We get bison jams. We get wolf jams."

In the autumn of 2000, representatives from the U.S. Geological Survey and National Park Service, along with some academics, met and formed something called the Yellowstone Volcanic Observatory. Four such bodies were in existence already-in Hawaii, California, Alaska, and Washington-but oddly none in the largest volcanic zone in the world. The YVO is not actually a thing, but more an idea-an agreement to coordinate efforts at studying and analyzing the park's diverse geology. One of their first tasks, Doss told me, was to draw up an "earthquake and volcano hazards plan"-a plan of action in the event of a crisis.

"There isn't one already?" I said.

"No. Afraid not. But there will be soon."

"Isn't that just a little tardy?"

He smiled. "Well, let's just say that it's not any too soon."

RE:1058. SevereHurricane
Interesting
Glad you made it through the night with minimal damage. Did the potting plant dirt in bags work at all - or was it too clumpy??
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE:1058. SevereHurricane
Interesting
Glad you made it through the night with minimal damage. Did the potting plant dirt in bags work at all - or was it too clumpy??


At first there was a little getting through but we cloged it with towels.But we had put everything important on the second story. One of my neighbors had as much as 3 inches in their house.
"A Short History of Nearly Everything" by Bill Bryson

one of the best books ever, anywhere, by anybody...
I have a little sticky next to my computer - to remember the sand bags for next hurricane season. Ones from 07 got dumped in the garden - and forgot them until Fay. Shows they could be useful now.
my, my....Doesn't this sound like a fun time?!

Last great greenhouse climate change to be studied
January 4, 2009, 12:42 pm NZPA

World authorities on the history of climate change are converging on Wellington for a conference on the greenhouse climate of the Paleogene period, 65 to 35 million years ago.

The Paleogene was the last time that the Earth experienced greenhouse climate conditions and associated global warming on a scale comparable to projected future global warming.

The conference will include a one day "Greenhouse Earth Symposium" on January 14 in which leading international research scientists will showcase the role that research into the ancient greenhouse world of the Paleogene plays in advancing understanding of modern climate change.

Presentations will be targeted toward a non-specialist audience with an interest in the science behind climate change and, specifically, greenhouse gas-induced global warming.

A common theme to several presentations is the discovery that during times of extreme global warming sea temperatures in polar and temperate regions, such as New Zealand , soared to levels far higher than is predicted by climate models.

The conference, "Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene", has drawn together 130 scientists and students from over 20 countries, and runs from January 12 to January 15.
Wonder if YouKnowWho is gonna flame me for posting about yet another "...minor European politician..."?!?!?!

Khaleej Times Online >> News >> NATION Blair to Report on Climate Change Deals at Abu Dhabi SummitT. Ramavarman

4 January 2009
ABU DHABI - Former British prime minister Tony Blair will report on the state of the deals on climate change at the World Future Energy Summit 2009 to be held here from January 19 to 21 at Abu Dhabi National Exhibitions Centre (ADNEC).

Tony Blair will be delivering the closing speech at the Summit which brings together over 100 experts, 300 exhibiting companies and 12 national country pavilions from around the world, the organisers told Khaleej Times here.

The former British prime minister is now leading the %u2018Breaking the Climate Deadlock Initiative%u2019, through which he is working with world leaders to develop an international climate policy framework.

Backed by the Climate Group, a non-profit international business body dedicated to a global deal on climate change, Blair is leading a team of international experts to work on various international projects to tackle the intractable problem of securing a global deal on climate change.
Wonder if YouKnowWho is gonna flame me for posting about yet another "...minor European politicain..."?!?!?!

ROFL!!!!!
greetings from the center of the universe
Glad to see you weathered your storm last night, severe.
Quoting GBlet:
HELLO, HELLO, HELLO, is there anybody in there?


"Just not if you can hear me...
is there anyone home?
Come on, come on now....
I hear you're feeling down...
I can ease your pain, get you on your feet again..
Relax, I need some information first..
Just the basic facts, can you show me where it hurts?..."

Link

13-3 to us at HT, Vort ;)
Next TD wins it, methinks.
Thanks to the horrible leadership we have here in Jefferson parish we flooded.
1068. Cotillion

Looking good!
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.
RE:1064. presslord

Must be a whole lotta money in GW market
Quoting Cotillion:
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.


haha go ravens
Quoting Cotillion:
Make that 20-3. Our D is just lights out today.
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game


Yes, as our offence has been no great shakes today. 5-1 turnovers, and Mia still have a shot. Paints the picture, really.
Next week(mid-January) the synoptic scale will shift. Which means much below average temps over the east(deep mean trough) while a mean ridge finally anchors itself firmly over the west.
Wow, over 1000 comments in the off-season?!? The freezing rain has started!
Quoting GBlet:
Seems strange that we have not had our usual storm yet. Usually happens right after the holidays. I could really use a snow day or 2.

Hmm? Where I live at least, the holidays end when school usually begins on Monday, so tehcnicly the holidays aren't over. Or is it different in the US?
By the way, the International Year of Astronomy kicks off this January. Depending on where you are it might begin on different dates.
1080. IKE
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Wouldn't get too complacent. Dolphins are only 2TD with goals away from making it anyone's game


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.
Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.


Now lets see my Eagles beat the Vikings.


Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.


Now it is. Got a little hairy with Pennington marching down the field. That was a huge TD.
1083. IKE
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....
Quoting IKE:


This game is over.

Ravens head to round 2.

Bye-bye Dolphins.

Praises Be!!!
Works for Me

Quoting IKE:
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....


Well, I don't know. We probably would've moved the ball better on NE, and Pennington was great until today. Cassel might've been the same.. last year our 5-11 Ravens nearly beat the Pats (And they had Brady, and our entire secondary was gone.)

Just hope we come out of this relatively unscathed. It's amazing what we've done... 12-5 with a rookie HC, a rookie QB AND no bye since Week 2.
Quoting IKE:
New England would have put up a better fight then the Dolphins. 4 picks by Pennington....


defidently,I was all patriots last year to the end, I was mad about what happened this year, they got the carrot.
1087. IKE
Miami had an easier schedule based on their lousy record in 2007. The Ravens may have beaten NE, but it wouldn't have been as one-sided.
Quoting weatherbro:
Next week(mid-January) the synoptic scale will shift. Which means much below average temps over the east(deep mean trough) while a mean ridge finally anchors itself firmly over the west.


I would be happy to see snow from Macon all the way to the FL panhandle.. they deserve it.. I mean.. they need it :)
Orca - are you weather hating again? tsk, tsk

I for one would be glad to have a little cooler weather - its make for a nice change of pace.

Quoting IKE:
Miami had an easier schedule based on their lousy record in 2007. The Ravens may have beaten NE, but it wouldn't have been as one-sided.


Yeah, it would be closer.

Titans, next - be a lot more even. Provided we don't have any players out, I think we'll sneak it. Chargers-Steelers will be interesting.

Quoting zoomiami:
Orca - are you weather hating again? tsk, tsk

I for one would be glad to have a little cooler weather - its make for a nice change of pace.



I want to be able to see my Koi again.. last time I saw them was before we went to Mexico... I know they have to be in that iceberg somewhere.
Ok what will that deep ridge translate to in Houston area?
1093. Drakoen
Isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through portions of central and northern Louisiana. Surface moisture flux convergence and high mixing ratio within the theta-e ridge over portions of Louisiana and Mississippi values 336K within the warm sector of a surface warm front moving up the mid-Atlantic states. Positive surface frontogenesis marked by an increasing thermal gradient. Generally conditional adiabatic lapse rates 6.5C/km and steep low level lapse rates near 7C/km...Lifted index values near -4 and CAPE between 1,000-1,500jkg. Currently a great chance of hail in the in the cell north of Monroe in extreme northern Louisiana and the cell to the northwest of Baton Rouge.
1094. beell
Now if we just had some shear and moisture.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Marine Bulletin
06:00 AM FST January 5 2008
============================

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (Not Numbered) [1002HPA] NEAR 16S 161E SLOW MOVING.

POSITION POOR.

2100 UTC Tropical Disturbance Summary, if any, will be issued later today on this disturbance (if system gets a tropical cyclone number)

---
this disturbance is west of Vanuatu and northwest of New Caledonia
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "AURING" conitnues to accelerate as it move northward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #7
===============================
At 5:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Auring located at 12.8N 126.7E or 210 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.

Signal Warnings
===============

Signal Warning Number 1 (30-60 kph winds)

Visayas Region
------------
1. Eastern Samar

---
Philippines is sort of lucky that 99W (Auring) changed course.


1097. Drakoen
Quoting beell:
Now if we just had some shear and moisture.


You're right. Moderate to High BRN shear values though we do have some directional shear between the low levels and upper levels. Lack of any significant speed shear. We do have some inflow base within the surface frontogenesis region.
1098. beell
MLCape would probably be a better indicator of updraft potential in the cool season. Closer to 500 j/kg. Mix the lowest 100mb up well and add to updraft. It will usually be lower than SBCape.
If you look at all the parameters I would say it would be near impossible to get anything substantial or close to any persistence, but there is a tor warning up in SW MS so what do I know lol?


India Meteorological Department
Earthquake Report

1/4/2009 20:22:54 UTC (1:52 am IST, Jan 5)
Lat: 6.4N
Long: 94.3E
Depth: 15
Magnitude: 5.4
Region: NICOBAR ISLANDS





1100. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
NEW!! Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

Link


TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 403 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 359 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 356 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
TORNADO WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 334 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
FLASH FLOOD WARNING LAKE CHARLES LA - KLCH 325 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 324 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 322 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 246 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2009
1101. Drakoen
There's also a lack of a low level jet. Not really pulling that GOM moisture. Southeast will get a better chance for rain on Tuesday. GFS shows a 64knt low level jet developing and a 150knt upper level jet with directional shear. The thermodynamics should be there for deep moisture to spread across the southeast especially around the Tennessee River Valley. Amount could be near 6inches according to the HPC: Link
Quoting Drakoen:
There's also a lack of a low level jet. Not really pulling that GOM moisture. Southeast will get a better chance for rain on Tuesday. GFS shows a 64knt low level jet developing and a 150knt upper level jet with directional shear. The thermodynamics should be there for deep moisture to spread across the southeast especially around the Tennessee River Valley. Amount could be near 6inches according to the HPC: Link

That link really shows it - Yikes! Though, as a Carolinian, I do not consider the Tennessee River Valley as the southeast.
1103. Drakoen
Quoting KEHCharleston:

That link really shows it - Yikes! Though, as a Carolinian, I do not consider the Tennessee River Valley as the southeast.


Tennessee is part of the southeast and so North Carolina. There's no exact definition for the southeast.
Quoting Drakoen:


Tennessee is part of the southeast and so North Carolina. There's no exact definition for the southeast.

You are exactly right about Tennessee being part of the southeast as is Kentucky and West Virginia (two other states that I did not think of as southern).
Southeast Region
1105. GBlet
I have often wondered why Kansas would not be considered the "midwest" as we are in the middle of the country.
Quoting GBlet:
I have often wondered why Kansas would not be considered the "midwest" as we are in the middle of the country.

Acccording to this site Kansas would be Midwest
Maryland ( which historically was considered a southern colony) is listed as part of the northeast.
And as we discussed above West Virginia (historically not a part of the south) is of course in the southeast
1108. IKE
Here in the Florida panhandle, looks like 2 fronts coming through this week...one on Tuesday night and Wednesday....the 2nd one on Saturday. The 2nd one has the colder air....

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows 29 to 34.

Sunday
Partly cloudy. Highs 52 to 56.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
6:00 AM FST January 5 2009
============================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance (1002 hPa) located at 16.0S 161.0E. Position POOR based on Multispectral Visible/Infrared Radar/Enhanced Infrared Radar imagery with animations. Sea Surface Temperatures around 30-31C.

Convection has been persistenet in the last 12 hours with a poor organization. Cyclonic circulation is from low-mid level in a low to moderate sheared environment.

Global models (US/AVN/GFS) expect the system to move southeastward with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW.
1110. GBlet
Cool, on most forecast dicussions we are considered the plains.
Series of quakes hit Indonesia, killing 4
By MURSIDIN ODE – 6 hours ago

MANOKWARI, Indonesia (AP) — A series of powerful earthquakes killed at least four people and injured dozens in remote eastern Indonesia Sunday and briefly triggered fears of another tsunami in a country still recovering from 2004's deadly waves.

One of the quakes — a 7.3-magnitude tremor — was felt as far away as Australia and sent small tsunamis into Japan's southeastern coast.

Residents near the epicenter in Papua province rushed from their homes in search of higher ground shortly after the first 7.6-magnitude quake struck at 4:43 a.m. local time (1943 GMT), afraid that huge waves might wash over the island.

The epicenter was about 85 miles (135 kilometers) from Papua's main city of Manokwari and occurred at a depth of 22 miles (35 kilometers), the U.S. Geological Survey said. It was followed by dozens of aftershocks.

At least four people died, dozens were injured and some 135 homes and other buildings were badly damaged or toppled in the province. Power lines fell, cutting off electricity, and the runway of Manokwari's Rendani airport was cracked, prompting the cancellation of commercial flights.

Continue reading here.
Quoting GBlet:
Cool, on most forecast dicussions we are considered the plains.

Makes you wonder who gets to set the designations, and how many are there. Just look at federal government - are the regions set up for weather forcasts the same as the regions set up for umm.. health administration etc. - Is there any uniformity?
I thought the Midwest included everything east of the Rockies and west of the Mississippi from North Dakota to Oklahoma. Am I wrong?
1114. GBlet
I agree that certain boundries be set, possibly 6 areas of the nation. Then set up the infastructure; disaster preparedness, healthcare, education. A coordinated effort, all ares connected.
1115. GBlet
Until you get a weather forecast, that really cofuses. When our local weather man is talking about the midwest, he is talking about Michigan,Wisconsin, and Minnesota areas. CRAZY I TELL YA!!
There was a really extreme thunderstorm in South Africa that killed atleast 8.
Indian Meteorological Department
Earthquake Report
1/4/2009 23:12:59 (4:52 am IST)

Location: 36.6 N 71.0 E
Depth (kms) 188
Magnitude: 5.8
Region HINDUKUSH,AFGHANISTAN
1119. surfmom
SWFL Surfers - Yeaaa Baby Here come the Waves - A kink in the jet will bring low pressure to the south --first with South West then WEST winds (my favorite wind -Zephyr) across the Gulf. Fun surf mid week..starting tuesday pm 1-23ftrs @ south facing beaches -- Wednesday showers then waist high building to chest --till Thursday **** 3ft @8-9 seconds west beach swell.

now how am I going to get off of work????? this is what i have been waiting so patiently for................
Frontline: Six months after Hurricane Katrina slammed into New Orleans, producer June Cross came across 82-year-old Herbert Gettridge working alone on his home in the lower Ninth Ward, a neighborhood devastated when the levees broke in August 2005. The moving personal story of Mr. Gettridge and his family reveals the human cost of this tragedy, the continued inadequacies of governments response in the aftermath of Katrina, and how race, class, and politics have affected the attempts to rebuild this American city.


1121. surfmom
Hades -- planet earth continues to keep you busy!! quakes all over, Activity by the Philippines..... busy already
11" of rain is a lot for a Tstrm.
We are happy to have Tennessee in the SE, but I always just called that area Appalachia.
surfermom: the earth sure is quaking nearly everywhere in the world.
shortened activity of today only..

MAP 3.6 2009/01/04 23:36:05 41.514 -116.159 16.0 NEVADA
MAP 5.8 2009/01/04 23:13:00 36.519 70.883 184.4 HINDU KUSH REGION, AFGHANISTAN
MAP 2.7 2009/01/04 22:27:12 54.050 -164.099 79.1 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 4.5 2009/01/04 22:24:15 20.308 147.069 35.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 2.9 2009/01/04 22:23:34 53.666 -163.776 71.8 UNIMAK ISLAND REGION, ALASKA
MAP 2.5 2009/01/04 22:20:06 38.724 -119.634 1.8 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 2.7 2009/01/04 21:27:13 53.711 -166.059 27.3 FOX ISLANDS, ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, ALASKA
MAP 2.5 2009/01/04 21:10:51 62.256 -145.778 0.0 CENTRAL ALASKA
MAP 4.9 2009/01/04 20:39:14 19.966 146.929 35.0 MARIANA ISLANDS REGION
MAP 3.1 2009/01/04 20:27:20 19.140 -67.763 5.7 DOMINICAN REPUBLIC REGION
MAP 5.3 2009/01/04 20:22:57 6.306 94.133 67.2 NICOBAR ISLANDS, INDIA REGION
MAP 2.5 2009/01/04 19:44:22 56.811 -156.384 36.5 ALASKA PENINSULA
MAP 5.0 2009/01/04 17:46:34 -58.297 -139.822 10.0 PACIFIC-ANTARCTIC RIDGE
MAP 4.2 2009/01/04 17:27:10 38.783 -122.772 4.3 NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
MAP 5.4 2009/01/04 00:00:38 -0.730 133.312 35.0 NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF PAPUA, INDONESIA
1125. surfmom
Hades -- has any one found out if the perihelion would be stirring up trouble???
1126. surfmom
Whoaa -- that is a lot of activity - which if it's releasing pressure on the plates I think is a good thing --rather then a massive buildup.... When California shakes -- I always get nervous, relieved I live on a sandbar!!
1127. surfmom
1120 -- LOUD APPLAUSE FOR YOUR POST Geof!
not sure
it does seem to be northern hemisphere with most of the activity
Quoting GBlet:
Until you get a weather forecast, that really cofuses. When our local weather man is talking about the midwest, he is talking about Michigan,Wisconsin, and Minnesota areas. CRAZY I TELL YA!!


They also usually consider Missouri to be part of the Midwest; below is how the U.S. Census Bureau defines it (according to Wikipedia):



Usually, this area is more commonly referred to as the "bi-state region", referring to Missouri and Illinois by the local weathermen (NWS also often uses it).
Geoff, thanks for the heads up on that story. It sounds like it will be quite interesting.
Raining fairly hard for the moment, but will not last long (not much to show on radar). Glad SevereH is not having a repeat performance of last night.

G'night all
Quoting surfmom:
Whoaa -- that is a lot of activity - which if it's releasing pressure on the plates I think is a good thing --rather then a massive buildup.... When California shakes -- I always get nervous, relieved I live on a sandbar!!


Your aware of course.. that is the worst place in the world to be in an earthquake? It is very susceptible to surface liquefaction.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Raining fairly hard for the moment, but will not last long (not much to show on radar). Glad SevereH is not having a repeat performance of last night.

G'night all


thank you
1135. surfmom
Thanks Orca -- more to worry about LOL -- I thought my location was clear of quakes ...maybe a tsunami ...but no quakes
Earthquake Information (Information about Seismic Intensity at each site)
Issued at 10:44 JST 05 Jan 2009 (01:44 AM UTC)

10:36 JST 05 Jan 2009 37.0N 141.7E 40km 4.6 Fukushima-ken Oki

.
Quoting surfmom:
Thanks Orca -- more to worry about LOL -- I thought my location was clear of quakes ...maybe a tsunami ...but no quakes


Near St. Augustine, St. Johns County, Florida
1879 01 13 04:45 UTC (local Jan 12)
Intensity VI

Largest Earthquake in Florida

Plaster was shaken down and articles were thrown from shelves at St. Augustine and, to the south, at Daytona Beach. At Tampa, a trembling motion was preceded by a rumbling sound. Felt from a line joining Tallahassee, Florida, to Savannah, Georgia, on the north to a line joining Punta Rassa and Daytona Beach, Florida, on the south. Two shocks occurred, each lasting 30 seconds.
1139. BtnTx
Well it appears the blog has died. I myself head to bed to rest up for what I call Super Monday! I don't like normal Mondays, but the first Monday to get up early for work in several weeks is going to be a challenge! Good Night all!
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "Auring" has shifted it course to its northeast away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Auring located at 12.8°N 127.5ºE or 300 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
Forecast for areas between 142E-160E
2:30 PM AEST January 5 2009
===========================================

A weak subtropical low is located over the central Coral Sea. This low is expected to move slowly east, though not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone during the forecast period.
MissNadia, BF and RTLSNK, looking for a way out of the Blog before the next GW lecture..

More snow here this mornin'. Not a lot, a gentle sprinkling - though it's unexpected.

Snow hinted at tomorrow night also.

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-F
18:00 PM FST January 5 2009
===============================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 04F (1001 hPa) located at 16.0S 161.0E. Position FAIR based on multispectral visible/infrared radar/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30-31C.

Cyclonic circulation is from low-mid level in a low to moderate sheared environment. Low level circulation is exposed with convection displaced to the north.

Global models (US/AVN/GFS) expect the system to move southeastwards with little intensification.

Potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains LOW.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Depression "Auring" has shifted it course to its northeast away from the country.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #8
===============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Auring located at 12.8°N 127.5ºE or 300 kms east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.


First tropical Cyclone of 2009.
1146. RTLSNK
52.5*F this morning in Macon,Ga with FOG.
Line of thunderstorms from Montgomery to Atlanta heading East towards us at this time.
Time for more coffee.
39Degrees F in Northern VA actually quite warm for now it gets warm just as soon as is was going to snow *sigh*
Bye haf to go
1148. aquak9
g'morning all you fine well educated folks in here.

5.6 smak dab in between the tip of the baha peninsula and mainland mexico. still being reviewed.
1149. surfmom
Greeted this morning by a misty fog here in SWFL.

SWFL Surfers - Yeaaa Baby Here come the Waves - A kink in the jet will bring low pressure to the south --first with South West then WEST winds (my favorite wind -Zephyr) across the Gulf. Fun surf mid week..starting Tuesday pm 1-3ftrs @ south facing beaches -- Wednesday showers then waist high building to chest --till Thursday **** 3ft @8-9 seconds west beach swell.

now how am I going to get off of work????? this is what i have been waiting so patiently for................
1150. surfmom
Post 1138 Orca - Amazing --
1151. aquak9
1152. RTLSNK
Gives new meaning to the phrase shake rattle and roll!
1153. surfmom
Thanks Aquak9 -- California - while I love it -- has always been Shake & Bake (fires) to me
1154. surfmom
Lovely 62 degrees in SWFL - light fog - dawn - and the first Monday of the New Year greets us
1155. vortfix
Good morning.
First full week of the new year brings us some severe weather across the lower MS valley and gulf coast states:


Photobucket

Photobucket

1156. pottery
Good Morning. Happy Monday !!
Lovely weather-
76 F
Bright sky, gentle N/E breezes, 40% chance of showers, and loads of work to do.
Hope everyone has a Good one...
Good morning, afternoon

Fog here in Charleston, 55 F (might get as high as 72 F). Rain will probably hold off til this evening.

Need coffee and to get over my grumps (going into work on my day off - yck). Fog fits my mood.

Quoting Orcasystems:
MissNadia, BF and RTLSNK, looking for a way out of the Blog before the next GW lecture..

Good Morning Orca/All: I've been staying away from the blog as the GW stuff just isn't any fun - some way too serious and take away from the off-season fun! Love the merkats! LOL
1159. surfmom
Conchy -- looks like some cooler running weather ahead-- good for the horses... not so much for me
Are there warnings that the upward circulations in the thunderstorm cells have shut off? If we have dopplar sweeps of the cells every few seconds, it may be possible to give some warning as the huge amounts of water begin their fall from thousands of feet.
It would be cool to see the radar signatures at a finer temporal scale and observe the circulation collapse.
I take it that this is a microburst on a much grander scale.

P.S. HAPPY and Prosperous New Year and epiphany.
conchygirl....

My New year's resolution....

I don't care if the ground beneath my feet comes to a boil...I ain't discussing YouKnowWhat....

Good morning all! He must be asleep, no string of charts at the mere mention of subject!!! I have found that if I hit the "hide" button when it looks like a tirade is starting it saves much wear and tear on the scroll button and the scroll finger.
Morning everyone......looks like Colder Weather coming South on Thursday with snow in the Ohio Valley more likely now.
Quoting presslord:
conchygirl....

My New year's resolution....

I don't care if the ground beneath my feet comes to a boil...I ain't discussing YouKnowWhat....



I Salute you......and Ahmen......LOL
Quoting conchygirl:
Good Morning Orca/All: I've been staying away from the blog as the GW stuff just isn't any fun - some way too serious and take away from the off-season fun! Love the merkats! LOL


Alright, I will follow you and Presslord's lead. My lips are zipped.
Quoting Aloysius:
Good morning all! He must be asleep, no string of charts at the mere mention of subject!!! I have found that if I hit the "hide" button when it looks like a tirade is starting it saves much wear and tear on the scroll button and the scroll finger.


Or just ignore the offenders (click the "Ignore User" link at the bottom of the comments, then click the update button on the page it opens up), then you don't have to click the hide button all the time, much less see what they posted.
Good morning and Happy New Year all. Hope it is going well for everyone.

Highlight video of the Christmas party for the residents of Bridge City, Tx is now up for those that missed the live feed.
Meerkats are loose again! Thought you were suppose to find them a place to stay Orca?

Good Monday morning (have to at least try to think positive)

Really enjoyed a four day weekend, no more for a long time to come.
Quoting presslord:
conchygirl....

My New year's resolution....

I don't care if the ground beneath my feet comes to a boil...I ain't discussing YouKnowWhat....

I like it! :)
1170. NEwxguy
Press,
If we could only get that resolution passed on to a blod resolution,lets hope everyone follows your lead
I just updated my Weather Blog if anyone would like to view.......

TampaSpins Weather Blog Link
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
1173. NEwxguy
Looks like the year of ice,wednesday storm looks like snow to sleet and ice
Quoting NEwxguy:
Looks like the year of ice,wednesday storm looks like snow to sleet and ice


Yep it could be a very big also, and a secondary low develops behind it that could be worst as the cold air will already be in place.
1175. NEwxguy
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep it could be a very big also, and a secondary low develops behind it that could be worst as the cold air will already be in place.


yep,early season predictions said this could be a very stormy winter and so far its true
1176. Patrap
Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 7:16 AM CST on January 05, 2009

... Flash Flood Watch in effect until 4 PM CST this afternoon...

The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of southeast Louisiana...
including the following areas... Assumption... lower Jefferson...
lower Lafourche... lower Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard...
lower Terrebonne... Orleans... St. Charles... St. James... St.
John The Baptist... upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper
Plaquemines... upper St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne.

* Until 4 PM CST this afternoon

* a stationary front extending from southern Mississippi to south-
central Louisiana will be focusing warm moist air off the Gulf
of Mexico over southeast Louisiana. Recent heavy rains have
saturated soils across the watch area and 2 to 3 inches of
rainfall will result in some urban and small stream
flooding... possibly extensive if the rates should exceed 2
inches per hour.

* The primary concerns will be periods of street flooding due to
poor drainage or periods of very heavy rainfall with high rates
of 2 inches or more per hour. Should the rains persist then some
vehicles... homes or businesses in low lying areas may become
threatened.

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

In traveling around the Metro area today... do not enter streets
that are covered with water. Do not enter underpasses that have
water in them as the water will be deeper than it would appear and impassible.




SEVERE WEATHER AREA POSSIBLY DEVELOPING..

On a different weather site on the Premium version, there is the CFS 300 Day Forecast (Coupled Forecast System from the NOAA, goes off trends). Now, I don't see how anyone takes it seriously but a nice bit of fun anyway. (Probably not terribly inaccurate - forecasts rain 2/3 of the time for the year... well it IS Britain, can't go far wrong with that one...)

But I had a giggle when it came to midway September especially. Winds around 0-15mph for a few days then... 143mph for a day or two, equivalent of a Cat 4. Then 140mph for the rest of September and October.

Wasn't aware that Earth was going to create its own Red Spot on top of us. Lol.



2008 Arctic Sea Ice Ends Year at Same Level as 1979.

Rapid growth spurt leaves amount of ice at levels seen 29 years ago.


Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.

http://www.dailytech.com/Article.aspx?newsid=13834


Quoting Cotillion:
On a different weather site on the Premium version, there is the CFS 300 Day Forecast (Coupled Forecast System from the NOAA, goes off trends). Now, I don't see how anyone takes it seriously but a nice bit of fun anyway. (Probably not terribly inaccurate - forecasts rain 2/3 of the time for the year... well it IS Britain, can't go far wrong with that one...)

But I had a giggle when it came to midway September especially. Winds around 0-15mph for a few days then... 143mph for a day or two, equivalent of a Cat 4. Then 140mph for the rest of September and October.

Wasn't aware that Earth was going to create its own Red Spot on top of us. Lol.





I'm surprised that they actually show the hourly forecasts from the CFS, but they do; I usually only look at what is displayed here (for monthly or seasonal/3 month periods). That said, it is often wildly inaccurate; here is an example:



Can't get much wronger than that... basically looks like you reverse its forecast (Alaska was just about the only area it correctly forecast the sign of anomalies; it did pretty badly globally as well, including over Europe)...
1181. pottery
Greetings.
Off Topic >> but,
Gisele Salandy, Trinidadian Boxer, holder of 7 World Titles, was killed in a traffic accident here yesterday.
She was an incredible athlete, and a very good Ambassador.
She also held the record for most titles in 1 fight. 5 !
She will be missed, especially in these times when Boxing seems to need some heroes in good standing......

1182. pottery
There are rough sea warnings here for the past 15 days. Seas to 3 meters in open water. Surf at the North coast beaches are 15 to 20 feet, according to Lifeguards.
Have not been able to confirm this with my surfer-son. I wonder where he is ??
1183. pottery
It is still overcast, windy, scattered showers. Those conditions will persist for a few days at least.
New blog is up.
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