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Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current and hit the Keys

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:21 PM GMT on May 06, 2010

The oil slick from the April 20 explosion and blowout of the offshore oil rig Deepwater Horizon is moving little, thanks to the light winds of 10 knots or less that have affected the northern Gulf of Mexico over the past few days. According to the latest NWS marine forecast, winds will remain light through Saturday, which should result in little transport of the oil slick. The latest trajectory forecast from the NOAA Office of Response and Restoration continues to show that the mouth of the Mississippi River and the Chandeleur Islands will be the only land areas affected by the spill over the next two days.

On Sunday, the winds will begin increasing and shifting to the southeast. The latest run of the GFS model shows that this will be a week-long period of southeast winds, with wind speeds at times reaching 20 - 25 knots. These winds will threaten to bring oil to a large portion of the Louisiana coast, including regions of the central Louisiana coast west of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The Mississippi and Alabama coasts will also be at risk next week, but the risk to the Florida Panhandle is lower.


Figure 1. Forecast location of the oil spill for Friday, May 7, 2010. Image credit: NOAA Office of Response and Restoration. See also the trajectory maps available at State of Louisiana web site.

Long-range prospects for oil to enter the Loop Current
A major concern with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill is the possibility for the oil to move southwards and become entrained into the mighty Gulf of Mexico Loop Current, which would rapidly transport the oil through the Florida Keys, impacting northwest Cuba, South Florida, the western Bahamas, and the U.S. East Coast all the way to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. However, there is no immediate danger of this happening. The latest forecast of Gulf currents from the NOAA HYCOM model (see also this alternative view of the HYCOM ocean current forecast) indicate that the currents will not be favorable for pulling any oil southwards into the Loop Current over the next five days. Oil will have to travel approximately 100 miles to the south-southeast to get entrained into the Loop Current, and we probably would need a 2+ day period of strong winds out of the north for this to happen. The long-range GFS model indicates that the earliest this might happen is 10+ days from now. As summer gets closer, the incidence of cold fronts making it far enough south to bring an extended period of offshore northerly winds to the Gulf of Mexico decreases. I think there is a 40% chance that the next cold front capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current will arrive by the end of June. However, I think it is more likely that the next such front will not arrive until October, when fall comes.

That makes a tropical storm or hurricane as perhaps the most likely weather event to push oil into the Loop Current over the next few months. A tropical storm hitting the Panhandle of Florida would do the trick, by bringing northerly winds over the oil spill location, thanks to the counter-clockwise flow of air around the storm. Looking ahead to June, June tropical storms tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico, and we've been averaging one June storm every two years since 1995. This year, the odds of a June Gulf of Mexico storm are probably a little lower than usual. While Gulf of Mexico sea surface temperatures are near average, wind shear from our lingering El Niño will probably be above average. Since 1995, there have been three June tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico that have followed a track capable of pushing oil into the Loop Current. These storms were Hurricane Allison of 1995, Tropical Storm Allison of 2001, and Tropical Storm Arlene of 2005. Taking into account all these factors, I'll give a 20% chance that we'll get a June tropical storm capable of transporting oil into the Loop Current.


Figure 2. Tracks of all June tropical storms and hurricanes, 1851 - 2006.

Next Post
I'll have a new post Friday. Next week, I'm in Tucson for the American Meteorological Society's bi-annual conference on hurricane science, and will be updating you on all the latest advancements in hurricane research.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks very circular and tight. It definitely looks better than the Panama AOI.


Except that the wave axis doesn't go through the "circular" part....it's off to the east. It looks like there's low pressure under there, but there isn't. That's a big reason why tropical wave analysis while still over the African continent is so tough, and that's why the NHC doesn't bother with it until they are over water. Looks on satellite can be very deceiving.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Looks very circular and tight. It definitely looks better than the Panama AOI.


C'mon folks. We're a little over anxious here. Waaaaaaay to early for Cape Verde stuff.
Seems some are tracking and Plotting tonight.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, no dry air.


Dry Air Shouldn't be a problem this year...
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, no dry air.


Well not really....the SSD METEOSAT sector is weird....their water vapor imagery has always had the color legend shifted down, or to the left, relative to all the other imagery on the site. Compare the GOES sector showing an upper low northwest of the Cape Verdes, with the same region in the METEOSAT sector. See the color difference? What is grayish white on the African sector is actually black or orange on the regular imagery that we are used to seeing. So then, it's actually drier than it looks on that image.

GOES sector Atlantic-wide:



METEOSAT African Sector:

506. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


Well not really....the SSD METEOSAT sector is weird....their water vapor imagery has always had the color legend shifted down, or to the left, relative to all the other imagery on the site. Compare the GOES sector showing an upper low northwest of the Cape Verdes, with the same region in the METEOSAT sector. See the color difference? What is grayish white on the African sector is actually black or orange on the regular imagery that we are used to seeing. So then, it's actually drier than it looks on that image.

GOES sector Atlantic-wide:



METEOSAT African Sector:

Oh, interesting.
Quoting Patrap:
Seems some are tracking and Plotting tonight.



Well I'm just having fun tracking our first 2 tropical waves. I don't see anything else to do.
Quoting Levi32:


Well I'm just having fun tracking our first 2 tropical waves. I don't see anything else to do.
me too, I'm also watching the Panama AOI for some strange reason.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
me too, I'm also watching the Panama AOI for some strange reason.


It must be a very strange reason indeed....lol.
Google iz a WUnderful tool.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, no dry air.


Theres a bit of SAL
Quoting Levi32:


I can imagine it must be a very strange reason indeed....lol.
LMAO, I don't know I just got a gut feeling that something is going to unfold from this even though I know it isn't.


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518. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Google iz a WUnderful tool.


It most certainly is.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO, I don't know I just got a gut feeling that something is going to unfold from this even though I know it isn't.


I hear ya. It's when I am away from my computer and the satellite images, that is when systems will develop. lol
Quoting laflastormtracker:


I hear ya. It's when I am away from my computer and the satellite images, that is when systems will develop. lol
Me too, lol.
Hey guys at approxamately 6:30 pm a great mentor and my best friend passed away. this was unexpected and demoralizing to me and my family so i hereby be leaving the blogs to be with family as family is top priority over everything else i will never forget you guys and i thank you from the bottom of my heart i will update my blog but thats it i thank you again and god bless each and every one of you. And may you live long and healthy lives!

Your friend,

Alexander Barrios
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey guys at approxamately 6:30 pm a great mentor and my best friend passed away. this was unexpected and demoralizing to me and my family so i hereby be leaving the blogs to be with family as family is top priority over everything else i will never forget you guys and i thank you from the bottom of my heart i will update my blog but thats it i thank you again and god bless each and every one of you. And may you live long and healthy lives!

Your friend,

Alexander Barrios
I think I have sheded a tear. My deepest condolences to your and your family. I wish you the best and I hope to see you again sometime in the future. Again, my prayers will be dedicated to you and your family, may God bless.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey guys at approxamately 6:30 pm a great mentor and my best friend passed away. this was unexpected and demoralizing to me and my family so i hereby be leaving the blogs to be with family as family is top priority over everything else i will never forget you guys and i thank you from the bottom of my heart i will update my blog but thats it i thank you again and god bless each and every one of you. And may you live long and healthy lives!

Your friend,

Alexander Barrios

Alex, I am sorry to hear about your loss, be blessed and I will keep you all in my prayers.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey guys at approxamately 6:30 pm a great mentor and my best friend passed away. this was unexpected and demoralizing to me and my family so i hereby be leaving the blogs to be with family as family is top priority over everything else i will never forget you guys and i thank you from the bottom of my heart i will update my blog but thats it i thank you again and god bless each and every one of you. And may you live long and healthy lives!

Your friend,

Alexander Barrios


I'm so sorry to hear about your loss Alex. My thoughts and prayers will be with you and your family.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Me too, lol.


Sorry Alex.

I was able to watch Hurricane Bill beginning from its genesis last year. Truly amazing. It is the only storm that I've seen the entire progression of its life cycle.
Pretty scary to see what's going on compared to the previous record-holding year for MDR SSTs:

May 5th 2005:



May 5th 2010:

Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hey guys at approxamately 6:30 pm a great mentor and my best friend passed away. this was unexpected and demoralizing to me and my family so i hereby be leaving the blogs to be with family as family is top priority over everything else i will never forget you guys and i thank you from the bottom of my heart i will update my blog but thats it i thank you again and god bless each and every one of you. And may you live long and healthy lives!

Your friend,

Alexander Barrios
Alex, you have my condolences.
Good night everyone, God bless.
So sorry for your loss Alex.
Switching over to Severe Weather real quick. Monday looks huge. 3000 j/kg CAPE as forecast by the GFS, but there will be a cap to deal with. Should erode away though as the Low P ressure System strengthens and Monday Afternoon looks bad. Significant Tornadoes look possible...
Maybe we'll see you again Alex! Pleasure having you on the blogs for the pre-season
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
Switching over to Severe Weather real quick. Monday looks huge. 3000 j/kg CAPE as forecast by the GFS, but there will be a cap to deal with. Should erode away though as the Low P ressure System strengthens and Monday Afternoon looks bad. Significant Tornadoes look possible...


The cap WILL break, and the storms that develop will be UGLY!
Quoting Bordonaro:


The cap WILL break, and the storms that develop will be UGLY!


Yep, it will break...Funny how our NWS has Showers here for SUNDAY not Monday...
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Yep, it will break...Funny how our NWS has Showers here for SUNDAY not Monday...

Gotta love OUR National Weather Service!!
PcolaDan, the Hvo cam is showing the top of the "E" ash plume!!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Gotta love OUR National Weather Service!!


Yep...
Greetings all...
another 96F day here today! Some showers forecast for the w/e, but seeing is believing....
Interesting feature off Africa, but loads of dry air west and north of it.
Interesting feature off Panama, with some moisture for it to feed on?

Interesting discussion on the oil leak here and on the previous blog. I wish that we were privvy to all the information. For instance-
1-where is the restriction that is reducing the flow? From a partially closed valve? A kinked pipe?
2-If the restriction is a kinked pipe, then the pipe itself is under enormous pressure and is damaged. How do we place domes over the pipe without breaking the damaged pipe? (a kinked pipe that is leaking is in pretty bad shape).
3- the domes (images were posted earlier by Patrap, I think) look like they are well thought-out and if all goes according to plan will no doubt help. Providing the weather is calm and gentle. What happens if things get rough? No way to stop the flow, as the dome will fill and oil will come out through the openings where the pipes are entering/exiting.

As I said, it would be real nice if we knew all the thinking on this one.
My very best wishes for success, to all involved.
541. xcool
TROPICAL WAVES nice
Quoting pottery:
Greetings all...
another 96F day here today! Some showers forecast for the w/e, but seeing is believing....
Interesting feature off Africa, but loads of dry air west and north of it.
Interesting feature off Panama, with some moisture for it to feed on?

Interesting discussion on the oil leak here and on the previous blog. I wish that we were privvy to all the information. For instance-
1-where is the restriction that is reducing the flow? From a partially closed valve? A kinked pipe?
2-If the restriction is a kinked pipe, then the pipe itself is under enormous pressure and is damaged. How do we place domes over the pipe without breaking the damaged pipe? (a kinked pipe that is leaking is in pretty bad shape).
3- the domes (images were posted earlier by Patrap, I think) look like they are well thought-out and if all goes according to plan will no doubt help. Providing the weather is calm and gentle. What happens if things get rough? No way to stop the flow, as the dome will fill and oil will come out through the openings where the pipes are entering/exiting.

As I said, it would be real nice if we knew all the thinking on this one.
My very best wishes for success, to all involved.

They are supposed to have the "dome" in place over the next few days. Hopefully they can position the dome properly and pump the crude and store it in barges. If that fails, we will have another 3-6 mos of oil spill to deal with until the relief well is drilled :O(!

Hang tough, rain will be arriving! The Calabash tree does not lie :o)!
543. xcool
2005 may02 and 2010 frist wave hmmmm





joe



Link
Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:


Yep...

The NWS Ft Worth-Dallas, TX will have a new Area forecast Discussion out by 4AM on 5-7-10 and we'll have a better idea on the severe weather threat for early next week, stay tuned!
Wow May 6th already... how time flies
546. xcool
this hurricane season is going to be almosttoo much
Hi Everyone,
Could someone please tell me what the hurricane/tropical storm forecast is for this season?
Thank you!
LOL Bordonaro.
And if the rain does not fall, the Calabash leaves will fall off again.
Then what will I do?
It is an anomolous situation, and one that I do not have any historical data on!
Quoting pottery:
LOL Bordonaro.
And if the rain does not fall, the Calabash leaves will fall off again.
Then what will I do?
It is an anomolous situation, and one that I do not have any historical data on!

Patience dear grasshopper, patience! I believe the rain will return within the next 2 weeks!
Quoting MrstormX:
Wow May 6th already... how time flies
its always just a matter of time we all got it coming
Quoting Bordonaro:

Patience dear grasshopper, patience! I believe the rain will return within the next 2 weeks!

Thank you, Oh Wise One.
I am gladdened by your words.
I too, expect that rains will fall, with the next moon.
Moist Africa:

Twenty, Eleven, and Five. A Greek Sighting? Possible, but Don't Count on It, M8B says.

:-)
Quoting pottery:

Thank you, Oh Wise One.
I am gladdened by your words.
I too, expect that rains will fall, with the next moon.

I checked your local forecast, you all have a 20-40% chance of rain staring this weekend, through all of next week!
555. xcool



remember people no more blackout!!!!!
Could someone please tell me what the forecast is for this season?
Quoting weatherbrat:
Could someone please tell me what the forecast is for this season?

Read post 553. It's official ;)
Opps....thank you!!
559. beell
Quoting weatherbrat:
Hi Everyone,
Could someone please tell me what the hurricane/tropical storm forecast is for this season?
Thank you!


Try this one, weatherbrat.
Link
Quoting pottery:

Thank you, Oh Wise One.
I am gladdened by your words.
I too, expect that rains will fall, with the next moon.




as we type dry air pulls away moist flow building NW WARD in off NE SA and ITCZ
Quoting weatherbrat:
Could someone please tell me what the forecast is for this season?


Could be close to 2005!
Quoting Bordonaro:

I checked your local forecast, you all have a 20-40% chance of rain staring this weekend, through all of next week!

Yeah, and if you look at the recent past forecasts, you will see that we have been getting that for some time now.. I know it's coming, and I know this is "transition" time. I just wish it would get here soon.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




as we type dry air pulls away moist flow building NW WARD in off NE SA and ITCZ

Thanks Keeper. But I have been trying not to look at that......
Quoting Drakoen:
Moist Africa:

once a little further along into season with a slight lift north along african wave train things won't take long to happen
that little enity breaks away from front and moves into nw carb will be interesting to watch
With the record SSTs and lack of shear I wouldn't be surprised to see the first CV developer roll off by say, the 4th week of June. However we're certainly not there yet. We could have 3 storms in June like we did in 2005 and an active July.
567. 789
it seems things are about a month out of wack !but lets not wish !
With everything coming together so fast, guess I'm going to have to speed up the assembly of the storm shutters for the new house. It's the last major project to get done before the end of May.
My Raw Prediction

Alex - around Memorial Day/first week of June, NW Caribbean, heads NE into Florida as a strong TS or minimal hurricane

Bonnie - 2nd week of June, off Florida coast, heads north and parallels East Coast as a TS then eventually dies

Colin - 4th week of June, NW Caribbean, heads north into Gulf Coast as strong TS/weak hurricane

Danielle - first CV hurricane of the season, forms in C. Atlantic in very late June/very early July, plunges into Caribbean

Earl - another CV hurricane in early July, chugs into Caribbean behind Danielle similar to Emily and Dennis in 05

Fiona - mid July entity off East coast, TS never making landfall

Gaston - mid July CV hurricane, forced west by the extention of the high into Caribbean, very impactful there, crashes into Mexico as a Cat 5 like Dean

Hermine - late July entity that will follow in Fiona's footsteps, TS and out to sea between East Coast and Bermuda


Igor - last week of July, Caribbean, minimal hurricane: impacting both the Yucatan and Mexican coastlines as a cat 1/2.


And then, August commences...
Quoting altesticstorm10:
With the record SSTs and lack of shear I wouldn't be surprised to see the first CV developer roll off by say, the 4th week of June. However we're certainly not there yet. We could have 3 storms in June like we did in 2005 and an active July.


2005 had two June storms; Cindy did not develop until July 3.
Forecasting a season like 2005 is like forecasting that a slice of bread with peanut butter on one side will land on it's left edge. Actually forecasting something that has happened twice in a hundred years is just like that, considering the statistics.
Post 569.
Well, if things turn out that way, you will get to be the next Edgar Cayce or something......
Quoting altesticstorm10:
My Raw Prediction

Alex - around Memorial Day/first week of June, NW Caribbean, heads NE into Florida as a strong TS or minimal hurricane

Bonnie - 2nd week of June, off Florida coast, heads north and parallels East Coast as a TS then eventually dies

Colin - 4th week of June, NW Caribbean, heads north into Gulf Coast as strong TS/weak hurricane

Danielle - first CV hurricane of the season, forms in C. Atlantic in very late June/very early July, plunges into Caribbean

Earl - another CV hurricane in early July, chugs into Caribbean behind Danielle similar to Emily and Dennis in 05

Fiona - mid July entity off East coast, TS never making landfall

Gaston - mid July CV hurricane, forced west by the extention of the high into Caribbean, very impactful there, crashes into Mexico as a Cat 5 like Dean

Hermine - late July entity that will follow in Fiona's footsteps, TS and out to sea between East Coast and Bermuda


Igor - last week of July, Caribbean, minimal hurricane: impacting both the Yucatan and Mexican coastlines as a cat 1/2.


And then, August commences...
wow thats precise,you dont happen to have a tropical weather office in yer basement do you
Quoting atmoaggie:
Forecasting a season like 2005 is like forecasting that a slice of bread with peanut butter on one side will land on it's left edge. Actually forecasting something that has happened twice in a hundred years is just like that, considering the statistics.

Atmo, awesome analogy. That is not very likely, by the way.
575. beell
Quoting atmoaggie:
Forecasting a season like 2005 is like forecasting that a slice of bread with peanut butter on one side will land on it's left edge. Actually forecasting something that has happened twice in a hundred years is just like that, considering the statistics.


I've dropped the peanut butter bread way more than twice in 100 years.
Quoting pottery:

Yeah, and if you look at the recent past forecasts, you will see that we have been getting that for some time now.. I know it's coming, and I know this is "transition" time. I just wish it would get here soon.

Season is changing, there is plenty of moisture close by to your east :o).
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wow thats precise,you dont happen to have a tropical weather office in yer basement do you

I think that's the toned down version...
Quoting beell:


I've dropped the peanut butter bread way more than twice in 100 years

Does it land on is left edge, or on the floor peanut butter side down?
Quoting pottery:
Post 569.
Well, if things turn out that way, you will get to be the next Edgar Cayce or something......


Greetings and salutations Pottery!
580. JRRP
first wave 2005

2006

2007

2008

now
Quoting beell:


I've dropped the peanut butter bread way more than twice in 100 years

But how many times in a hundred did it land on it's left edge?
Quoting atmoaggie:
Forecasting a season like 2005 is like forecasting that a slice of bread with peanut butter on one side will land on it's left edge. Actually forecasting something that has happened twice in a hundred years is just like that, considering the statistics.


Not really understanding the forecasts for a 2005-like season, myself. The only factor that is as favorable (or arguably more favorable) as in 2005 are SSTs. These, of course, are only one of many factors.

A season like 1995 or 1998 is much more plausible.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Season is changing, there is plenty of moisture close by to your east :o).

I hear you. I just felt to grumble a little about the dam heat and dry.
Hopefully, I dont have to grumble about too much rain come next month and beyond..
584. JRRP
Quoting JRRP:
first wave 2005

2006

2007

2008

well... see you tomorrow
Link
585. beell
Quoting Bordonaro:

Does it land on is left edge, or on the floor peanut butter side down?


And @atmo

Sorry, not familiar enough with the coordinate system used to identify the left edge of peanut butter bread.
Quoting atmoaggie:

But how many times in a hundred did it land on the it's left edge?


Darn! Mine always land on its right edge! I'm unlucky I guess..
Howdy, Snake.
Seen the sun recently?
Quoting beell:


And @atmo

Sorry, not familiar enough with the coordinate system used to identify the left edge of peanut butter bread.

Well, if you use a compass and orient the top to north...

Awww, nevermind...
Quoting beell:


And @atmo

Sorry, not familiar enough with the coordinate system used to identify the left edge of peanut butter bread.

A serious flaw in your education, obviously.
heheheheh
As a skeptical old man from the desert, I will wait for reality to dictate besides some of youse is scaring me.
591. beell
orient the top to north...

yeah, i don't know either, lol
better let it rest. forgive the diversion.


Quoting msphar:
As a skeptical old man from the desert, I will wait for reality to dictate besides some of youse is scaring me.
Yeah, I never met a peanut butter sandwich that did not terrify me too.....
Quoting beell:


And @atmo

Sorry, not familiar enough with the coordinate system used to identify the left edge of peanut butter bread.


Your holding the peanut buttered bread, peanut butter side up. Look at the left crust of the bread. OK, when you dropped the peanut buttered bread, did it land on that left corner? Probably not, just kidding with you of course. Beell, you're a very intelligent blogger, forecasting TC development is not an exact science. The odds of us having another 28 TC season is slim to none this year.

Quoting pottery:
Howdy, Snake.
Seen the sun recently?


Today in fact, yard is still swampy but one more day of sunshine should dry things out nicely. We have an incredible group of mushrooms and/or toadstools growing in the back yard. Some of them we have not even been able to identify. Have one in particular that is quite odd. Dark red open topped creature that looks a little like a Venus Fly Trap sort of thing. Still can't identify that one.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not really understanding the forecasts for a 2005-like season, myself. The only factor that is as favorable (or arguably more favorable) as in 2005 are SSTs. These, of course, are only one of many factors.

A season like 1995 or 1998 is much more plausible.
sst's will be no where like 2005 but exceed them in fact it shall exceed all other seasons and become a record sst year basin wide in my opinion
Quoting Bordonaro:


Your holding the peanut buttered bread, peanut butter side up. Look at the left crust of the bread. OK, when you dropped the peanut buttered bread, did it land on that left corner? Probably not, just kidding with you of course. Beell, you're a very intelligent blogger, forecasting TC development is not an exact science. The odds of us having another 28 TC season is slim to none this year.


Well given that in one hundred years of paying attention we saw 1933 and 2005, well, the odds are exactly 2% we could have a season like 2005 (which was somewhat like 1933), this year or any year, exclusive of conditions. (well, maybe not exactly 2%, a little less in reality)

Yeah, more than 2% considering conditions so far this year, but really, not likely.
597. beell
Quoting pottery:

A serious flaw in your education, obviously.
heheheheh


Obviously.

No problem, Bordo
Just raggin' the Aggie!
Quoting RTLSNK:


Today in fact, yard is still swampy but one more day of sunshine should dry things out nicely. We have an incredible group of mushrooms and/or toadstools growing in the back yard. Some of them we have not even been able to identify. Have one in particular that is quite odd. Dark red open topped creature that looks a little like a Venus Fly Trap sort of thing. Still can't identify that one.

I would avoid eating that one. Although, you never know.
Glad to hear that the Sun is upon your shoulders.
compare maps 2010/2005

Quoting atmoaggie:

Well given that in one hundred years of paying attention we saw 1933 and 2005, well, the odds are exactly 2% we could have a season like 2005 (which was somewhat like 1933), this year or any year, exclusive of conditions.

Yeah, more than 2% considering conditions so far this year, but really, not likely.

And just in case, I enjoy my crow slow cooked in sweet cooking sherry, with a hint of garlic, oregano and thyme, well done please. Hopefully, crow tastes like chicken :o).

And, no, I wasn't dropped on my head as a child, and no closed brain injuries either.
I don't want to start something, but anybody knows there are some things you don't drop. Example being a peanut butter sandwich,which only has a bad outcome, never have never will unless I am having a coronary.Oops I mean half made.
There was some discussion the other day about the effects that the oil spill could have on SST's in the area it is in.
Any thoughts on that?
Quoting beell:


Obviously.

No problem, Bordo
Just raggin' the Aggie!

Sorry, I am going through severe weather and Iceland ash plume withdrawls, and suffering from flood and oil-spill-itice!
Quoting beell:


Obviously.

No problem, Bordo
Just raggin' the Aggie!

Yeah, glad you did...funny guy.
*Sheesh, coordinate system...hmmm, that would depend on white or wheat*
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well given that in one hundred years of paying attention we saw 1933 and 2005, well, the odds are exactly 2% we could have a season like 2005 (which was somewhat like 1933), this year or any year, exclusive of conditions.

Yeah, more than 2% considering conditions so far this year, but really, not likely.


I wonder what the odds would turn into if we started chopping off years that are completely dissimilar ... eg strong el nino years, years with below normal SSTs, years in the inactive AMO years, etc..
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well given that in one hundred years of paying attention we saw 1933 and 2005, well, the odds are exactly 2% we could have a season like 2005 (which was somewhat like 1933), this year or any year, exclusive of conditions.

Yeah, more than 2% considering conditions so far this year, but really, not likely.


Also one thing about freakish years number-wise is they can sometimes limit themselves in terms of total ACE. 2005 was spread out all over the Atlantic, from the Bay of Campeche to the Canary Islands, and thus was able to crank out 7 majors, and set the record for highest ACE. 1933, on the other hand, was all bunched up, at least in the west where we observed the storms. 1933 likely rivaled 2005 in total number when you consider possible storms in the east, but the main concentration was through the Caribbean. No doubt a horrid year for the folks in that area, but look at the result. Only 5 majors....and they were all to the north of the Caribbean, away from where the main concentration of tracks was. The sheer massive number of storms running through the Caribbean likely drained the ocean of any significant heat to support a major hurricane, thereby saving the Caribbean countries from what would have been a far worse year had the number of storms been cut in half.

Wind shear over the past 11 days:


The bottom image shows the anomalies. Red= anomalously below average; blue= anomalously above average
Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah, glad you did...funny guy.
*Sheesh, coordinate system...hmmm, that would depend n white or wheat*

OK try this one on for size, as a math question:

"Atmo has buttered a piece of wheat bread with an even layer of peanut butter. The slice of peanut-buttered bread has 4 squared sides and the peanut buttered face. What are the odds that the slice of bread will fall and land on its left crust? Please show your work".
Quoting Bordonaro:

OK try this one on for size, as a math question:

"Atmo has buttered a piece of wheat bread with an even layer of peanut butter. The slice of peanut-buttered bread has 4 squared sides and the peanut buttered face. What are the odds that the slice of bread will fall and land on its left crust? Please show your work".

Due to natural tendencies, a slice of PBB dropped from the RIGHT hand will tend to fall on it's left quadrant (detirmined by looking at the PBB from the Holder's veiwpoint).
Similarly, the opposite is true.
You will have to come here, to see the ghastly results. The dog is pleased.
Quoting Levi32:


Also one thing about freakish years number-wise is they can sometimes limit themselves in terms of total ACE. 2005 was spread out all over the Atlantic, from the Bay of Campeche to the Canary Islands, and thus was able to crank out 7 majors, and set the record for highest ACE. 1933, on the other hand, was all bunched up, at least in the west where we observed the storms. 1933 likely rivaled 2005 in total number when you consider possible storms in the east, but the main concentration was through the Caribbean. No doubt a horrid year for the folks in that area, but look at the result. Only 5 majors....and they were all to the north of the Caribbean, away from where the main concentration of tracks was. The sheer massive number of storms running through the Caribbean likely drained the ocean of any significant heat to support a major hurricane, thereby saving the Caribbean countries from what would have been a far worse year had the number of storms been cut in half.


I see your thinking, yet, I question how thoroughly any amount of hurricanes can cool the Caribbean. Yes, storms move heat, thereby removing it from a body of water, but how effectively. So effectively that they really can cool large swaths of the Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the mixed layer is very deep? I have doubts.

Could be that some other function was the limiting factor in that latitude band, as is usually the case.
Quoting pottery:

Due to natural tendencies, a slice of PBB dropped from the RIGHT hand will tend to fall on it's left quadrant (detirmined by looking at the PBB from the Holder's veiwpoint).
Similarly, the opposite is true.
You will have to come here, to see the ghastly results. The dog is pleased.

Thanks Pottery, I enjoyed the detailed answer, and please, give your dog a big bowl of cool water to wash down that peanut butter sandwich :o).
The situation here has become untenable.
Ants in their millions are swarming under the door.(due to the mass of PB on the floor)
I have sprayed with Instant Death, and will have to retreat to the upper reaches of the house, where my kerosene and matches are.
Goodnight.
Quoting Bordonaro:

OK try this one on for size, as a math question:

"Atmo has buttered a piece of wheat bread with an even layer of peanut butter. The slice of peanut-buttered bread has 4 squared sides and the peanut buttered face. What are the odds that the slice of bread will fall and land on its left crust? Please show your work".

I am afraid I will need the thickness of the edges, relative to the dimensions of the sides to figure the surface areas correctly...

j/k, G'Nite, all.
Quoting pottery:
The situation here has become untenable.
Ants in their millions are swarming under the door.
I have sprayed with Instant Death, and will have to retreat to the upper reaches of the house, where my kerosene and matches are.
Goodnight.

Maybe they smelled the peanut butter!
Quoting Bordonaro:

Maybe they smelled the peanut butter!

Yeah! And they got the dog too..........
Hey all.

Just popped on to share a weather video. This is my neighborhood's entrance last night. Had marble-sized hail today also. Portable hoop aside the driveway was displaced two feet when I went out this AM.

Watch the left-hand pole get ripped off by a wind gust. After that, not much excitement, but was quite a storm that passed through.

J/K...
I'm gone...
put the dog and peanut butter outside the door
Quoting Bordonaro:

OK try this one on for size, as a math question:

"Atmo has buttered a piece of wheat bread with an even layer of peanut butter. The slice of peanut-buttered bread has 4 squared sides and the peanut buttered face. What are the odds that the slice of bread will fall and land on its left crust? Please show your work".


I discovered during my semi-scientific test that the initial information listed above was slightly off. There is the peanut buttered side, the non peanut buttered side, the left crust, the right crust, the front crust, the back crust, and during my test I noted that it is possible for the slice of bread to also land on any of the four corners of the bread also. Therefore, the odds of the dropped peanut buttered bread landing on the left crust at any one drop would be 10 to 1. :)

Does anyone know how to get peanut butter off a hardwood floor without damaging the floor?

Maybe I should wake up my wife and ask her, on second thought, not a good idea.

See you guys tomorrow! :)
Quoting pottery:
There was some discussion the other day about the effects that the oil spill could have on SST's in the area it is in.
Any thoughts on that?


Obviously, I'm no scientist, but after consulting with some folks here, along with doing my own research, I have concluded that it is quite likely that the oil will create an anomalous warming trend, at least on the ocean surface.

Unsure about the subsurface, though...
this cant be good


Can't stand it - on the peanut butter, smooth, or crunchy? Fat-free? Organic, or not? Seriously, does it ever make it to the floor if your dog is around?
Organic is marketing at it's finest.

Pay more for something that tastes worse?

Knock yourself out.
Look at the moisture plume going from the S.W.Caribbean all the way across the Atlantic to Portugal. It is like a road of clouds.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I see your thinking, yet, I question how thoroughly any amount of hurricanes can cool the Caribbean. Yes, storms move heat, thereby removing it from a body of water, but how effectively. So effectively that they really can cool large swaths of the Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the mixed layer is very deep? I have doubts.

Could be that some other function was the limiting factor in that latitude band, as is usually the case.


I'd have to agree; I don't see how those storms could have cooled the Caribbean enough to prevent major hurricanes from forming.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I see your thinking, yet, I question how thoroughly any amount of hurricanes can cool the Caribbean. Yes, storms move heat, thereby removing it from a body of water, but how effectively. So effectively that they really can cool large swaths of the Caribbean where the waters are very warm and the mixed layer is very deep? I have doubts.

Could be that some other function was the limiting factor in that latitude band, as is usually the case.


That is true....the Caribbean would be the hardest area of the Atlantic to cool down. However, I would not rule it out during the year where the most storms ever recorded passed through the Caribbean.
Green is another marketing ploy.

I'll buy it if it is of the same or higher quality. Otherwise, it is a waste of money.

I'm a huge CF guy now. Especially since I can now run my 1K watt chandelier lights with 275 watts and not have to replace for years.

Practical works. That's capitalism. The only true democracy ever. Vote is with the wallet and there are no elections necessary.

Although I am sure I will be pounded later that I'm using too much mercury. ;)

Goodnight.
632. 789
Quoting pottery:
There was some discussion the other day about the effects that the oil spill could have on SST's in the area it is in.
Any thoughts on that?
oz has flares ready its already affecting sst
633. xcool
mmm





kind old
634. xcool
look at cmc and gfs wow
tgif good morning we should know by sunday if the box works
Quoting xcool:
look at cmc and gfs wow
Can you post links to them please? Thanks I'm on another computer don't have my bookmarks
TROPICAL WAVES...

A SERIES OF TROPICAL WAVES ARE EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. ONE JUST
OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ALONG 15W...A SECOND ONE ALONG
36W...AND A THIRD ONE ALONG 45W. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE ELEVATED NEAR THESE WAVES. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF EACH WAVE AXIS.
638. IKE
Quoting Engine2:
Can you post links to them please? Thanks I'm on another computer don't have my bookmarks


There's nothing on either one of them related to the Atlantic. Not sure what he's "wowing" about.
639. MahFL
IKE, I was thinking the same thing too, maybe it was some sarcasim, which is hard to portray online.
still cleaning up peanut butter here...
Quoting IKE:


There's nothing on either one of them related to the Atlantic. Not sure what he's "wowing" about.
Thanks IKE I just took a look at the ones from wunderground and there is absolutely nothing noteworthy on them.
oh great now it more tropical waves

Quoting aquak9:
still cleaning up peanut butter here...
watch out for the ants
Morning all, My wife told me it rained in the front yard for 10 mins then it started in the back yard. I have 2 gauges one in the front had 1.14 and back had .93. Little crazy. Wish i could have been there to see that.
Negative NAO
I've been here for years but try to keep my mouth shut because I'm no meteorologist; I learn so much here and thank you all for that. Hoping someone can advise me...
Of course on Florida's west coast, we are obsessing over the loop current. On another forum I belong to, speculation is that surface currents aren't the same as deep currents. Ergo, could the underwater oil plume be migrating faster than surface pattern indicates? This doesn't make intuitive sense to me but I'm hoping you can direct me to a laymen-level explanation. If it's on this thread already, I will go back farther (just back to peanut butter post #1 right now)!
Thanks!
ETA: I should have said "migrating in a different direction than surface currents indicate" sorry. We realize loop current predominates, just don't know if there are additional possibilities hiding out there...
A mission to the bottom of the sea to try to avert a wider environmental disaster progressed early Friday as crews said a 100-ton concrete-and-steel box was close to being placed over a blown-out well on the Gulf floor in an unprecedented attempt to capture gushing oil.

Douglas Peake, the first mate of the supply boat that brought the box to the site, confirmed a radio transmission from the nearby vessel lowering the device that said the device would be in position over the well soon.
Noticed this little flare-up in the SW portion of the pix (NW of South America).


Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, My wife told me it rained in the front yard for 10 mins then it started in the back yard. I have 2 gauges one in the front had 1.14 and back had .93. Little crazy. Wish i could have been there to see that.


That's Florida! I had the same thing happen in my area yesterday.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, My wife told me it rained in the front yard for 10 mins then it started in the back yard. I have 2 gauges one in the front had 1.14 and back had .93. Little crazy. Wish i could have been there to see that.

That reminds me that one time we needed rain so bad, and it was coming, but then it stopped about 100 ft from our house, AT THE STOP SIGN. No Joke. Several of us saw it
Quoting WarEagle8:
Noticed this little flare-up in the SW portion of the pix (NW of South America).




I believe that is the spot where our 1st tropical system will form in about two weeks.

If you look at the ITCZ, all the energy being sent from Africa is funneling right up into that area...off Panama.

It's only a matter of time now...
Quoting CycloneOz:
A mission to the bottom of the sea to try to avert a wider environmental disaster progressed early Friday as crews said a 100-ton concrete-and-steel box was close to being placed over a blown-out well on the Gulf floor in an unprecedented attempt to capture gushing oil.

Douglas Peake, the first mate of the supply boat that brought the box to the site, confirmed a radio transmission from the nearby vessel lowering the device that said the device would be in position over the well soon.
with the way things have gone so far...I wouldn't be surprised the next headline reads "Drum on crane lowering coffer Dome only had 4900 ft of cable. BP expects to lift coffer dome back to the surface and refit drum with adequate amount of cable more details to follow"

I hope this works...
I expect scattered strong to severe storms again across East Central Florida due to the -10 to -11 temps in the upper levels. NWS wants to focus these storms over S FL but I am not seeing this today and you can thank an Upper Low near the Great lakes. This Upper Low will tug an old frontal boundry north and focus strong to severe wx across East Central Florida today. Also, the east coast seabreeze will move into the interior today rather than being pinned along the east coast. Be ready for very dangerous lightning with these storms as well.
Quoting Jeff9641:


That's Florida! I had the same thing happen in my area yesterday.

Hi jeff, yes your right this is florida. and you said i would get some rain. bravo to you.
Quoting severstorm:

Hi jeff, yes your right this is florida. and you said i would get some rain. bravo to you.


Today is more complicated across C FL.
Good morning all, heard on the news that there are tar balls on Mississipi beaches this morning - didn't see any pictures though. Anybody living there who can confirm? Now if only the ants could converge on them and find them yummy....
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, My wife told me it rained in the front yard for 10 mins then it started in the back yard. I have 2 gauges one in the front had 1.14 and back had .93. Little crazy. Wish i could have been there to see that.


PensacolaDoug and I were fishing on a dock at Bayou Davenport in Warrington when a tropical depression began to form right above us.

Eventually, the depression moved off to the south and west and went into LA...but before it did, it dropped copious amounts of rain on us.

In one of the downbursts, the rain came hard and straight down, but stopped at the edge of the dock we were on. We were not getting wet at all, not a drop, but we could stick our arm out over the edge of the dock and put it into the rain up to our shoulder.

The rain snaked across the bayou out in front of us. It looked like a solid wall.

from AP Story this morning by Harry Weber and Tamara Lush:

...the crane lifted the containment box from the deck and into the Gulf after 10 p.m. CDT, dark oil clinging to its white sides as it entered the water and disappeared below the surface.

The technology has been used a few times in shallow waters, but never at such extreme depths -- 5,000 feet down, where the water pressure is enough to crush a submarine.

The box -- which looks a lot like a peaked, 40-foot-high outhouse, especially on the inside, with its rough timber framing -- must be accurately positioned over the well, or it could damage the leaking pipe and make the problem worse.

BP spokesman Doug Suttles said he is not concerned about that happening. Underwater robots have been clearing pieces of pipe and other debris near where the box will be placed to avoid complications.

"We do not believe it could make things worse," he said.


Other risks include ice clogs in the pipes -- a problem that crews will try to prevent by continuously pumping in warm water and methanol -- and the danger of explosion when separating the mix of oil, gas and water that is brought to the surface.

"I'm worried about every part, as you can imagine," said David Clarkson, BP vice president of engineering projects.

If the box works, a second one now being built may be used to deal with a second, smaller leak from the sea floor.

"Hopefully, it will work better than they expect," Peake, said.


Big Polluter has credibility issues.
At least the engineer on the ground says he's worried.
Yesterdays T storms almost got to the east side of Saint Lucie county last night. Good lightning show for a little bit. Back to summer seabreeze thunderstorms.
Quoting Levi32:


That is true....the Caribbean would be the hardest area of the Atlantic to cool down. However, I would not rule it out during the year where the most storms ever recorded passed through the Caribbean.

Two Cat 4's, one after the other, trekked through the Caribbean in the same period in early and mid July of a certain very recent year...no upwelling.
CycloneOz - Is that a fish story? Only kidding - really interesting.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not really understanding the forecasts for a 2005-like season, myself. The only factor that is as favorable (or arguably more favorable) as in 2005 are SSTs. These, of course, are only one of many factors.

A season like 1995 or 1998 is much more plausible.

1995 named storm total, with 2004-2005-2008 tracks

I just wish people would quit bringing up 1998, that was a very late starting hurricane season with a modest number of named storms. People keep forgetting that even 2007 and 2008 were more active than 1998 and the conditions this year are much more favorable in many ways than both 07 and 08 whereas in 1998 the El Nino lasted until like July and the shear was strong in the Caribbean all season long (minus Late October, but that doesn't count).
Quoting Jeff9641:


Today is more complicated across C FL.


From the NWS

...FL...

STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL ENHANCE THERMAL CIRCULATIONS ALONG SEA
BREEZES LATER TODAY ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PENINSULA. NWLY FLOW AT
MID LEVELS IS A EXPECTED TO BE A BIT STRONGER THAN THURSDAY...THUS
ACTIVITY MAY BE MORE ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY REQUIRING AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
DOWNBURSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG MULTI CELL...AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
Quoting CycloneOz:


PensacolaDoug and I were fishing on a dock at Bayou Davenport in Warrington when a tropical depression began to form right above us.

Eventually, the depression moved off to the south and west and went into LA...but before it did, it dropped copious amounts of rain on us.

In one of the downbursts, the rain came hard and straight down, but stopped at the edge of the dock we were on. We were not getting wet at all, not a drop, but we could stick our arm out over the edge of the dock and put it into the rain up to our shoulder.

The rain snaked across the bayou out in front of us. It looked like a solid wall.



as my grandfather always said

wait things happen
666. P451
Good Morning.

12HR WV Imagery Loop - Ending 830AM ET.
Light Green and above is moist, Light Blue and below is dry.



Nature reminding us the tropical season is about to kick off.
quite a few meso cyclones in my area yesterday. Palm Beach Gardens got nickel size hail.
That 'entity' in the SW Caribbean is merely the tail end of a frontal boundary (TUTT). As you can see the cloud tops are getting sheared pretty badly. It's not going to develop into anything tropical. I know we're all waiting for our first system, just wait 2-3 more weeks and we'll get one, hold your horsies, lol
Good Morning. Yup, that little area of persistent convection in the SW Caribbean might be the "crystal ball" event as to where we might see our first storm of the season in the Atlantic basin as the ITCZ is moving along nicely and slowly moving North. Problem right now is still too much shear, and as noted yesterday by another Blogger, that the active ITCZ may well signal a very active E-Pac season as the activity moves towards Central America/Panama area where this area is currently located. Have to watch the upcoming MJO cycle but I am not certain that the first storm to form down there, in mid-May to early June, will be an Atlantic Basin event; it could well be an E-Pac storm........Will have to wait to see what happens but that general area seems to be the one to watch over the coming weeks.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Yup, that little area of persistent convection in the SW Caribbean might be the "crystal ball" event as to where we might see our first storm of the season in the Atlantic basin as the ITCZ is moving along nicely and slowly moving North. Problem right now is still too much shear, and as noted yesterday by another Blogger, that the active ITCZ may well signal a very active E-Pac season as the activity moves towards Central America/Panama area where this area is currently located. Have to watch the upcoming MJO cycle but I am not certain that the first storm to form down there, in mid-May to early June, will be an Atlantic Basin event; it could well be an E-Pac storm........Will have to wait to see what happens but that general area seems to be the one to watch over the coming weeks.

Or, we could see one of each (Adrian, then Arlene)

or, we could see one cross over and get a sex change (Alma-Arthur)
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Or, we could see one of each (Adrian, then Arlene)

or, we could see one cross over and get a sex change (Alma-Arthur)


True............. :)
our first system will be when and where we least expect it. It will be a year of unexplainable tropical phenomenon.
Quoting K8eCane:
our first system will be when and where we least expect it. It will be a year of unexplainable tropical phenomenon.


Yup.....I think this little "thingie" down there may have officially kicked off our "blob watch" this season.
Quoting K8eCane:
our first system will be when and where we least expect it. It will be a year of unexplainable tropical phenomenon.



that, oddly enough, makes a lot of sense to me...
I still believe our 1st system is going to start right there...and either run off to the east or dive into Belize.
676. IKE
NEW BLOG...