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Longest Coral Bleaching Event on Record Continues to Hammer Reefs

By: Bob HEnson 3:30 PM GMT on March 28, 2016

Even as the El Niño of 2015-16 winds down, coral reefs remain threatened by the longest episode of global-scale bleaching on record. NOAA announced in October 2015 that the third global bleaching event had begun, with reefs from the Florida Keys to Fiji suffering widespread damage over the past year. In February, NOAA scientists announced that the bleaching event was the longest on record. The event is a result of widespread ocean warming related to long-term climate change as well as regional warmings triggered by El Niño, which began in early 2015. The prolonged nature of the bleaching event is especially worrisome because it allows for multiple years of damage during seasonal peaks in upper-ocean temperature, giving the reefs less time to recover. “We may be looking at a 2- to 2½-year-long event,” said Mark Eakin, coordinator of NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch program. “Some areas have already seen bleaching two years in a row.”

In its 2015 annual summary of conditions across U.S. coral reefs, issued on March 7, 2016, NOAA projected that the global bleaching event will likely extend into 2017. Since 2014, the report noted, 100% of all U.S. coral reef areas have experienced at least some level of thermal stress associated with unusually warm waters, with 41% experiencing Alert Level 2 thermal stress (typically associated with widespread bleaching and mortality). Record-breaking events occurred in 2015 near Hawaii, American Samoa, the Northern Mariana Islands, and Florida. Reefs near Hawaii were hard hit by bleaching in both 2014 and 2015.


Figure 1. Bleached coral at Lizard Island, north of Cooktown, Australia, captured by the XL Catlin Seaview Survey in March 2016. The global insurance firm XL Catlin is working with scientific institutions around the world to carry out the ongoing survey, which has collected more than 700,000 panoramic images along nearly one million kilometers. Image credit: XL Catlin Seaview Survey, via globalcoralbleaching.org.

Major damage at Great Barrier Reef
Severe bleaching is now under way across the northern reaches of the Great Barrier Reef, which is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and one of the world’s great treasuries of marine diversity. At some reefs off far northeast Australia near the tip of Cape York, up to 50 percent of coral have already died. The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority classified the unfolding event as Level R3, the most dire, because of severe regional bleaching over the last few days. (R3 can also be triggered if less-severe bleaching is particularly widespread.) “To put it in simple, stark terms, multiple areas of the reef are now dead and dying,” said David Suggett (University of Technology Sydney) in a Conversation essay published last week. South of the hardest-hit area, clouds and heavy rain had tamped down ocean temperatures and reduced the extent of bleaching, according to a March 21 update from the park authority.

“The damage this year seems more localized but much more intense than 1998 and 2002,” Justin Marshall (University of Queensland) told me in an email, referring to past events across the Great Barrier Reef. The focus toward the north this year, he said, is “likely due to [an] unfortunate stack of factors there—the south got more wind and rain for a bit, and that seems to have shielded it a bit.” Marshall is chief investigator of Coral Watch, a nonprofit that fosters public awareness and entrains students, visitors, and others in helping to monitor and protect the reefs.

After conducting an aerial survey north of Cairns that extended some 600 kilometers (270 miles), veteran researcher Terry Hughes (James Cook University) saw evidence of severe bleaching across all but four of the 520 reefs surveyed. Hughes told Australia’s ABC News that he expects roughly half of the bleached coral across the northern Great Barrier Reef to die over the next month. This week his group plans to extend the surveys southward toward Townsville. “How many 100s of reefs blitzed?” he wondered aloud in a tweet, after calling last week’s expedition “the saddest reef trip of my life.” Both Hughes and Marshall are interviewed in this ABC video.


Figure 2. High-alert areas for coral bleaching across the Pacific Ocean for the week beginning March 26, 2016, based on satellite-derived sea surface temperature data. The areas currently at highest risk are concentrated along and south of the Equator, as upper-ocean temperatures are now close to their seasonal peak in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition, warmer-than-usual waters directly related to El Niño have enhanced the risk in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Image credit: NOAA Coral Reef Watch


Figure 3. The sequence of events involved in coral bleaching. Image credit: Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority.

How warm water damages reefs
Bleaching is a sure sign of a coral reef in trouble. The brilliant colors associated with coral reefs are produced not only by the reefs themselves (which are animals related to jellyfish or sea anemone) but also by the microscopic algae called zooxanthellae that coexist with the reefs. As the coral send polyps upward and outward from their hard skeletons (Figure 3), the zooxanthellae lodged in the coral tissue carry out photosynthesis and provide nutrients to the coral. In return, the coral provides shelter and carbon dioxide to the algae. Because the algae need sunlight to photosynthesize, coral reefs are located just below the ocean surface in warm tropical and subtropical waters. Stresses such as unusually high water temperatures, increased water acidity, or pollution can disturb the symbiotic relationship between the corals and the algae that live inside them. If water temperatures are more than 1-2°C above their typical warm-season highs for an extended period, the algae may began to photosynthesize too quickly for the coral to handle. To protect its own tissue, the coral may expel the algae, and the grayish-white skeletons of the coral become visible through the now-translucent tissue of the polyps. The more severe and prolonged the bleaching, the more difficult it is for the reef to recover.

Third time is no charm
The global bleaching that struck during and after the “super” El Niño of 1997-98 was a shocker--the first global-scale mass bleaching ever recorded. Although the world’s oceans had been gradually warming for decades, the 1997-98 El Niño was the first time that large sections of coral were exposed to temperatures warm enough to cause extensive bleaching. Some 16% of the world’s reefs died as a result of this mass bleaching. It was followed in 2010 by the second mass global bleaching, again triggered by El Niño on top of long-term warming. About a third of all carbon dioxide emitted by human activity goes into the oceans, where it can degrade coral in another way. Coral growth rates in the Great Barrier Reef have dropped by some 40% in the last 40 years, apparently in large part due to the acidifying influence of human-produced carbon dioxide absorbed by the oceans.

Less than a thousandth of the ocean floor is covered by reefs, but these areas play host to a spectacular variety of life--an estimated quarter of all marine species known to exist--and they help support the ocean-based livelihoods of half a billion people. Reefs are under a variety of threats in addition to long-term human-caused warming, including diseases and overfishing. In the Caribbean alone, surveys indicate that reef habitats have declined by more than 50% since the 1970s. While some types of coral may be able to grow upward quickly enough to keep up with modest sea level rise, not all species will be able to adapt to fast-warming temperatures. We may end up seeing a few hardy coral species proliferate in our warming climate, while many others, including some of the most delicate and beautiful creatures on Earth, struggle--and sometimes fail--to adapt to our new and evolving normal. An interesting article by Meehan Crist in The Atlantic touches on some of the efforts being made to preserve and strengthen reefs and the ecosystems they support, including the development of artificial reefs.

We’ll have a new post by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob Henson   


Figure 4. Departures from the 1971-2000 seasonal average in sea surface temperature for February 1998 (top) and February 2016 (bottom), just after the peaks of the “super” El Niño events of 1997-98 and 2015-16. Image credit: IRI

Climate Change Coral Reefs Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Gaia suffers ever more so from the effects of Mans continued use of Fossil Fuels to run His societies.

The insanity of that is we have a Main Sequence Yellow Star only 93,000,000 miles away.

Words to ponder for a new week.




I went diving in Bonaire around the time of the last event. It's heartbreaking to see up close.


Got a trace of rain this morning, and this shows why. figures for rain are:
since July 2015     9.89        07/1/15-03/28/16
water year       &nbs p;     6.02       10/1/15-03/28/16
this month       &nb sp;     1 .31       03/1/16-03/12/16

Quoting 2. largeeyes:

I went diving in Bonaire around the time of the last event. It's heartbreaking to see up close.


My son and his fiance are in Perth at the moment ...they plan on scuba diving at the Great Barrier Reef before coming back to the US.

The condition of the reef is so sad to hear.
Quoting 5. justmehouston:



My son and his fiance are in Perth at the moment ...they plan on scuba diving at the Great Barrier Reef before coming back to the US.

The condition of the reef is so sad to hear.


its ok Houston
it will all be wiped clean only to begin again
the great cycle of life its all borrowed energy
from which it all must return to its source
good informative update as always gentlemen

have a great day
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 30 minHace 30 minutos Lafayette, CA Ver traducción
Weekly Nino 3.4 SST anomaly down to 1.5C, the coolest anomaly since week centered on July 8, 2015. #Elnino weakening
   Thanks for the new Post Mr. Henson....
Quoting 8. JRRP7:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 30 minHace 30 minutos Lafayette, CA Ver traducción
Weekly Nino 3.4 SST anomaly down to 1.5C, the coolest anomaly since week centered on July 8, 2015. #Elnino weakening
CFS not fix?
More proof that corals don't watch Fox News.
Quoting 10. Gearsts:

CFS not fix?
Nope...
Quoting 10. Gearsts:

CFS not fix?

was supposed to be fix today
12:30 PM EDT Monday 28 March 2016
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong northwesterly winds with a few gusts to 80 km/h are expected this afternoon and early evening.

Loose objects may be tossed by the wind.

Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
mid week event

Quoting 14. JRRP7:


was supposed to be fix today

I could be off base here but anyhow, the CFSV2 is an average of 48 runs, so maybe it win take more than a run or two to reflect a large change in output.
Quoting 20. gr8lakebreeze:


I could be off base here but anyhow, the CFSV2 is an average of 48 runs, so maybe it win take more than a run or two to reflect a large change in output.
Or maybe the problems are more complicated and more involved then first anticipated, thus leading to a longer time frame for the fix.
00Z
Thanks for the update Mr Henson!
Quoting 22. Gearsts:

00Z




I'm wondering if this will have any measurable impact on the AMOC (Atlantic Meridonial Overturning Circulation) for northbound "warm" waters towards the Gulf Coast.


Anybody know of any active sensors to do this task? Buoys that sample Salt and Temperature gradients?


Found what I wanted to look at - it's a Buoy system called "Argo" - Wikipedia link - there' some direct links to different slices of it
Spring Breakers are probably not too happy today. The sea fog is still holding on at the beach and it's 2:45 pm.


In town the sun has been out most of the day. Image in town at the airport.

cool water east of brazil is wrong and will be changed shortly. j.b.
Any drizzle yet Ped?


Quoting 6. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



its ok Houston
it will all be wiped clean only to begin again
the great cycle of life its all borrowed energy
from which it all must return to its source


1st of all, how is that ok?
2nd, is that melodrama really necessary? I don't think it helps anything to peddle what basically amounts to hopelessness. Just saying.
Quoting 26. islander101010:

cool water east of brazil is wrong and will be changed shortly. j.b.
Quoting 28. Mediarologist:



1st of all, how is that ok?
2nd, is that melodrama really necessary? I don't think it helps anything to peddle what basically amounts to hopelessness. Just saying.


well I am hoping mankind will prove me wrong
but that is yet too happen and likely will not
as its growing stronger and faster everyday

its ok
cause nature has repeated this grand scheme of life on this planet 5 times
and I am sure there will be a 6th and 7th and so on and so forth
till the sun expands to consume all the inner planets in the end
4.9 billion years from now

Quoting 30. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



well I am hoping mankind will prove me wrong
but that is yet too happen and likely will not
as its growing stronger and faster everyday

its ok
cause nature has repeated this grand scheme of life on this planet 5 times
and I am sure there will be a 6th and 7th and so on and so forth
till the sun expands to consume all the inner planets in the end
4.9 billion years from now




Even if you take the geologic view of time, it's rational to hope that self-aware organisms can die at some sort of relative peace. So I would say that while few of us as a species have that luxury today, fewer of us will have it in the future, due to AGW and the fact there are exponentially more of us.

It's shocking on a long enough timeline, but I agree that pulling back to deep time makes it all somewhat benign.
The Great Sandwich continues to suffer through a moistening of her ciabatta due to a lack of moisture barrier between the lettuce, tomato and her delicate skin. Yet Man remains oblivious to the fact that there are several cans of high-quality latex paint sitting in my garage.


Pavlof volcano in eruption, March 27, 2016. Photo courtesy of Colt Snapp, taken from a flight enroute to Anchorage, from Dutch Harbor.

Quoting 30. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



well I am hoping mankind will prove me wrong
but that is yet too happen and likely will not
as its growing stronger and faster everyday

its ok
cause nature has repeated this grand scheme of life on this planet 5 times
and I am sure there will be a 6th and 7th and so on and so forth
till the sun expands to consume all the inner planets in the end
4.9 billion years from now




I agree that anyone who says we're going to kill the Earth, and we have to save the Earth is mistaken. We're going to kill ourselves before that happens, and while I have my doubts sometimes about the survival of humanity, the end of us is not ok. If that's where you're coming from then head over to Nature Bats Last and start your mourning for our near term extinction, but I ain't buying that just yet.
Quoting 28. Mediarologist:



1st of all, how is that ok?


Because it's comforting to know that no matter how stupid we are, how destructive we are, or how much we pollute and poison our little spec of life giving dust in the endless vastness of the universe (the only place we know of that can actually support and sustain life), that it will eventually recover and life will begin again. Maybe with slightly more intelligent life forms the next go around. Evolution is like a box of chocolates.

Quoting 28. Mediarologist:
2nd, is that melodrama really necessary? I don't think it helps anything to peddle what basically amounts to hopelessness. Just saying.


What melodrama? Facts are facts. If we continue along our current path, we're going to wipe ourselves out. I'm not even talking about climate change. As a species, we are not living in a sustainable manner. In nature, when a species suddenly finds itself expanded beyond what the system is capable of supporting, they die off. Unfortunately, humans aren't exactly known for going quietly into that good night. When resources become scarce, war happens. In the modern age, that could easily mean the destruction of modern life as we know it (and that's without further weapons advancement). Now add in the other problems of climate change, pollution, etc. and suddenly the future isn't looking so bright (for us or the unfortunate species who're getting taken out directly and indirectly).

Hopeless? Not if we're proactive. But that's not exactly our strong suit.
Well, the sun is finally out here, yesterday's total was 2.21 and we had a 4 day total of 4.72. It's not like such rainfall amounts are rare here, but usually the come in shorter duration. The sky was overcast and raining most of the time during the whole period from Thursday evening into Sunday.

It wasn't all light to moderate rain though. We did have brief periods of heavy rainfall that would last for 10 minutes or so on and off during this last few days, and that actually probably accounted for about 2.5 inches of the total even. The other 2 inches was just for about 10 hours each day of constant steady rain over the last 4 days.

I like my share of rain, but was glad to see it end and have the sun come out after 4 days of overcast. I'm used to the typical Florida precip which is heavy down pours for 30 min to an hour then have the sun come back out, which is a more exciting and enjoyable way to get precip rather than hours of steady rain and overcast all day.

We were quite a bit below average going into this event with 2.18 for the month when the March average is around 5 inches, but now we are slightly above at 6.90 for the month after this wet 4 day stretch.
40. bwi
Didn't notice any coral bleaching where we were in Fiji in January. But the water temps were super warm, and there was some brown algea(?) at the surface that you could see from the plane even.
The CFS not doing well.
Anything I wanted to know, anyplace, I needed,..to go'

Preparing for Major Coral Bleaching in Fiji in 2016

Posted by Austin Bowden-Kerby on October 29, 2015 at 7:00am




Fiji has some of the most beautiful and diverse coral reefs on the planet, which create beaches, protect communities, provide fisheries resources, and attract guests to our shores. However, a mass coral bleaching event is now occurring in Hawaii and Kiribati and is expected to spread to Fiji waters in 2016.
Scientists have predicted that the present crisis could become the biggest coral die-off in history. Please support our local initiative to protect, cultivate, and replant bleaching resistant corals to our reefs, helping coral reefs adapt to climate change.

We will be seeking out community groups, individuals, and resorts who we can work with to tackle this problem and to make a difference.

Austin abowdenkerby@gmail.com (679) 938-6437

Thanks for supporting this urgent request.
http://www.globalgiving.org

coral bleaching in Fiji

Quoting 41. Gearsts:

The CFS not doing well.



Hopefully at 06z on March 29 is finally fixed.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 8m8 minutes ago

CFSv2 update to fix South Atlantic equatorial ocean abnormality failed at 06z. EMC to try again Tuesday.

Greetings and Blessings from the islands Every One- I trust that Everyone had a Glorious Easter Sunday and are continuing to bask in the Splendour of this Blessed Easter Season!
Alleluia! Jesus Christ is Risen!

Currently, we are enjoying copious bouts of sunshine mixed with some brief Easter showers. We couldn't have hoped for a better combination this time of year -especially since we were predicted to have been in a much drier than usual spell for this year's dry season. However, thus far -no complaints- so far so good... To God be the Glory!
Also, We continue to be vigilant to see whether the forecast for the GFS/ CFS will actually manifest for the islands by next month...time will tell for sure. Let's all continue to keep safe, and pray and work for the best of situations in all things!
God Bless!
this coming weekend might get interesting....................................... ..
Quoting 45. LargoFl:

this coming weekend might get interesting....................................... ..
Yep. Later this week may have some severe weather...



Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 am CDT Monday Mar 28 2016

..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from a portion of the central and
Southern Plains into the Lower-Middle MS valley...


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms from a portion of the plains
into the MS valley areas...


Corrected for day of the week in summary.


...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from portions of the
central and Southern Plains into the lower to middle Mississippi
Valley region on Wednesday. Threat may persist into the overnight
over the lower Mississippi Valley area. Damaging wind...large hail
and tornadoes will be possible.

Models have trended toward similar solutions regarding amplitude and
timing of a significant shortwave trough that will rotate through
base of western U.S. Cutoff upper low Tuesday before emerging over the
Central High plains by late morning Wednesday. This feature will
continue east-northeastward into the middle-upper MS valley region. Lee surface low will
deepen in association with the shortwave trough and move northeastward
through Nebraska into Iowa by Wednesday night. Trailing cold front will
merge with dryline and continue southeastward through the central and Southern
Plains and middle MS valley area. Farther south a fast moving
subtropical jet will move through Texas during the day and into the
lower MS valley Wednesday evening and overnight.


..srn and Central Plains through the middle MS valley area...


Partially modified Gulf air will return northward along a strong southerly low level jet
and beneath an eml contributing to moderate instability along with a
capping inversion. Low clouds and presence of the cap may limit
surface-based thunderstorm development...especially with southward extent
along the dryline. Moreover...the low level jet will gradually veer and shift
eastward during the day. Low-clouds should gradually mix out from the
west...and forcing attending the shortwave trough and accompanying
cold front will likely contribute to thunderstorm development from
eastern Nebraska southward through central/eastern Kansas. Development might occur as far
south as central/eastern OK and north central Texas along dryline...but is more
conditional on northward extent of early elevated convection that could
affect parts of OK and northern Texas. Where surface-based storms
develop...strong deep shear will support organized severe storms
including a few supercells.


..ern Texas into the lower MS valley region...


Rich Gulf moisture with upper 60s to near 70 f dewpoints will advect
northward through the warm sector in advance of a progressive upper jet
maximum. Current indications are that at least some storms will
develop early within the warm advection regime ahead of this feature
and lowers confidence where the best destabilization will evolve
coincident with strengthening deep layer winds. Given the rich
low-level moisture and favorable low-level hodographs...a threat
will exist for some storms to intensify and develop supercell
structures from eastern Texas and spreading into the lower MS valley.
Threat will exist for a few tornadoes...damaging wind and hail. This
area will continue to be monitored for possible higher probabilities
in later outlooks...but uncertainty regarding extent of early
convection lowers confidence in more than a slight risk area at this
time.


.Dial.. 03/28/2016



Quoting 41. Gearsts:

The CFS not doing well.


lol
Quoting 43. Tropicsweatherpr:



Hopefully at 06z on March 29 is finally fixed.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 8m8 minutes ago

CFSv2 update to fix South Atlantic equatorial ocean abnormality failed at 06z. EMC to try again Tuesday.



ahh that is the reason
Is global warming causing marine diseases to spread?

Global climate change is altering the world’s oceans in many ways. Some impacts have received wide coverage, such as shrinking Arctic sea ice, rising sea levels and ocean warming. However, as the oceans warm, marine scientists are observing other forms of damage.

My research focuses on diseases in marine ecosystems. Humans, animals and plants are all susceptible to diseases caused by bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi. Marine diseases, however, are an emerging field.


Warming waters promote marine diseases

Recent studies show that for some marine species diseases are spreading and increasing. Climate change may also promote the spread of infectious agents in oceans. Notably, warming water temperatures can expand these agents’ ranges and introduce diseases to areas where they were previously unknown.

Many diseases of marine species are secondary opportunist infections that take advantage when a host organism is stressed by other conditions, such as changes in pH, salinity or temperature. A bacterium that is dormant (and therefore noninfective) at a certain temperature may thrive at a slightly higher temperature.

Winter Storm Troy has been named.
Link
The CFS is so messed up now...it shows a cold MDR but a warm North Atlantic...
Quoting 27. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Any drizzle yet Ped?

Got a trace of rain this A.M. here, CoCoRaHS site around corner backed it up, nothing since.
been off here since 10A.M. helping my Sister update her laptop....


Quoting 50. HurricaneFan:

The CFS is so messed up now...it shows a cold MDR but a warm North Atlantic...
Fix tomorrow.
Quoting 281. swflurker:

Your theory was debunked last night. Move onto something new please. Thanks.




It wasn't debunked. Are you not in search of the truth?
I can assure you the practices cane farmers here in
Louisiana use are the same as in Florida. I can also assure you that, if runoff from cane farmers here impacted crawfish in any way (there would be a war) down here.
Quoting 54. Gearsts:



very robust and solid
I realize this is off topic to the post.

I drove home to Fallon from Irvine yesterday. We had a grand time with short day hikes at Red Rock Canyon State Park and Fossil Falls. Got home around 7:45pm, the wind had kicked up but skirting Walker Lake wasn't bad at all.

I can't tell you how extreme my relief is that I came home yesterday and not today.

Right around this time we were an hour past Bishop, I had to pull off in Chalfont because the 9 year old viking was having an asthma reaction to some Gummy Lifesavers, so after a bit of inhaler and a lot of water, we stopped at the rock shop in Benton for Gatorade and so she could chill talking geology with the eccentric but sweet owners and their brother. Pretty clouds to the north but the weather was gorgeous. Even leaving as late as 7am, it was great to have daylight for almost all of the drive home.



Right about now the wind is stupid, when we haven't been getting snow we've been getting freaking HAIL for crying out loud, it's 32.4*F, and I just got a black ice warning for tonight into tomorrow morning.



I mean yay YAY for more snow in the Sierras, but sheesh. Did I mentioned my relief about not driving home today?
Quoting 45. LargoFl:

this coming weekend might get interesting....................................... ..


And I will be out of town this weekend. Which is bad news for ILM/MYR, I'm the good luck charm

Not a Major(sic)rainfall Event, only got a trace at my place, and the Airport got none. Downtown got .04....
Pavlov is starting to shut down Anchorage airport. More and more flights getting cancelled. I don't blame the airlines, no one would like to fly into as ash cloud at 37000 feet and lose engines. I'd need a wardrobe change if I survived that.

So far I haven't seen any ash in the Anchorage area, good thing this one is 600 miles away. As long as redoubt doesn't decide to go up again all should be well here. I hope the communities near Pavlov are OK...

Ped I got your rain up here, trying to send it down to you.
Kind of off-topic, but anybody watching Scorpion on CBS
Yeah... But I am an episode or so behind..... I like that show.
Quoting 64. Dakster:

Yeah... But I am an episode or so behind..... I like that show.

Not gonna spoil anything, but they are trying to use dry ice to stop a F4 tornado

EDIT: And now they just spoofed the whole tying your thing down to stop being sucked into the tornado (Ala Twister)

Quoting 62. Dakster:

Pavlov is starting to shut down Anchorage airport. More and more flights getting cancelled. I don't blame the airlines, no one would like to fly into as ash cloud at 37000 feet and lose engines. I'd need a wardrobe change if I survived that.

So far I haven't seen any ash in the Anchorage area, good thing this one is 600 miles away. As long as redoubt doesn't decide to go up again all should be well here. I hope the communities near Pavlov are OK...

Ped I got your rain up here, trying to send it down to you.
Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Rain= Nasty Ass MUD.....
Quoting 66. PedleyCA:


Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Rain= Nasty Ass MUD.....



If the rain stops the ash from getting here, it would be nice.

Last time Anchorage was covered in mud the water company couldn't keep up with demand to wash things off. The mud is like sand paper and eats the paint off your car/truck.

Good thing I just got my pressure washer!
This is really bad... Maybe BB can put it in his list of articles...

http://www.adn.com/article/20160328/years-arctic- sea-ice-growth-appears-be-lowest-ever

arctic-sea-ice-growth-appears-be-lowest-ever
see u tomorrow
Quoting 61. sanflee76:


Yeah, Fox News is to blame for all the worlds problems.....give me a break man, you know how ridiculous you sound? Im sure you prefer a Dan Rather made up lie of a story on CBS


Missing the point.
Here's an article about the Saharan dust, its affects on climate,and a long-term prediction for it, from Science Daily...

The past, present and future of African dust

Date:
March 23, 2016
Source:
CNRS
Summary:
So much dust is scattered across the planet by the winds of the Sahara that it alters the climate. However, the emission and transport of this dust, which can reach the poles, fluctuate considerably. Although many hypotheses have been put forward to explain this phenomenon, no unambiguous relationship between this dust and the climate had been established until now. According to new research meteorological events such as El Niño and rainfall in the Sahel have an impact on dust emission, by accelerating a Saharan wind downstream of the main mountain massifs of Northwest Africa. The scientists have also developed a new predictive model showing that emissions of Saharan dust will decline over the next hundred years.

More at Link
Quoting 70. Naga5000:



Missing the point.
Went over my head. What is the point?
I feel the Bern!
Quoting 68. Dakster:

This is really bad... Maybe BB can put it in his list of articles...

http://www.adn.com/article/20160328/years-arctic- sea-ice-growth-appears-be-lowest-ever

arctic-sea-ice-growth-appears-be-lowest-ever

just the first two and half months has been more than interesting
much more of 2016 too come






Quoting 70. Naga5000:



Missing the point.


You gotta point there Naga. And if you flip your hair over to the other side, you'll cover it. :)

I don't get how any news organization has done anything, other than they all have a slant and skew the facts towards their point of view. But that's human nature. Not one of us here could write a truly unbiased article....
end of march compare date 03 29 2015/2016


Keep - That's not good to start off summer that warm.
Quoting 76. Dakster:

Keep - That's not good to start off summer that warm.


ya really but sst's are one of many things needed for a bad season but water temps are there for sure

maybe once the Greenland icecap melts away into the Atlantic things will cool off for a bit but just a bit
here is a 2005 /2016 compare same date


80. vis0
Quoting 61. sanflee76:


Yeah, Fox News is to blame for all the worlds problems.....give me a break man, you know how ridiculous you sound? Im sure you prefer a Dan Rather made up lie of a story on CBS
Ya know ya just went against the ethical rhetoric of  "2 wrongs don't make a right". ...

(be it one  had just one error or at most two or three, the  other has more than three a week)

... Yet,  i defend Fox, if they want to present a point of view that gets them more viewers that otherwise would not have a "news" outlet then go ahead its the  USofA Fox has the same rights as the adult industry. (Patrap, please don't say anything in comparing both, i can read yer mind).

A better example is  just like a channel that caters to SciFic, odds are is not going to air many program on reality.   

The trouble is in the Education system where money is cut, slashed,  taken out to pay for other things that are of less value to society and in some cases even quasi-private schools which in the end cost more.

Cost more?

Look around you, sure the following statements do not account for every Human being actions but it is a scenario that leads to more problems in the long run than preventing problems.

As a modern society, is it not modern to stop short term problems from becoming long term problems?
 


If we educate 1000 children all at a public school with good teachers that are paid well and in paying them well they HAVE to pass refresher courses every 4 years otherwise they get paid less for knowing less, AFTER all they are teachers not baby sitters then odds are 900 of those 1000 will become well rounded adults...not perfect but better off.
 

If we take out the best 200 and place them in schools that use private money AND public money sure we'll see 170 kids becoming intelligent adults but not well balanced as they grew up in a bleached classroom environment. Since money was taken from the public Scholl now the  800 children left have even less funds/funding. Now these less funded public schools might START  with good teachers that in time become discouraged in seeing or feeling no one cares and that translates to a paycheck that does not keep up with their basic economic needs.  Teachers buying school needs out of their pockets, to basic needs for themselves, and you get what you presently see building up for a few decades.  
 

Guess what those 800 kids that become adults whom had discouraged teachers as the example of life, will be more apt to cause trouble NOT THAT BY NATURE the public school kids are bad, they began as normal kids with curious minds (unless the environment as a child had things like Lead, polluted air etc) but just like when one places a human being that made a slight error in judgement Petty theft at a young age) in jail and not reforming the child now  comes of of jail as a person that has a higher tendency to do wrong.
 

Those 200 kids are better off in the end not speed learning, but quality learning as in being together as they learn, learning BY EXAMPLE how to deal with real life,  interact with others not just what is on a   paper  screen and BONUS the kids become better educated.
 

Remember its not 2 and 2 that equal 4 that is important to society but that  tu and tu equals nosotros.   - Another crappy saying created by vis0 as a kid circa 1970ish.

 (its in Spanglish, if loosely translated it means you & you equal us as in the US of America, not the UofA)


(Disclaimer, use of slang terms are meant to attract comments from those that use LCDs to think with.)

LOOK! the 3 stooges oh boy!, gotta go.
 

The rest keep reading - observing how the coral bleaching is yet another thing that will cost more in the long run as everything made by nature or gawd has a use that can help all living things.   The less variety humans have the less chance there is to discovering new cures or new areas of science.  

Is like kids going into a school and burning it down then as adults wondering why they are worse off socially and economically.

Those that speaketh of things/needs costing too much now, do not know if the coral one day healthy coral will help the gas companies by finding that a specific type of HEALTHY coral when broken down by certain LAB CONTROLLED chemicals reactions can create a cleaner running gasoline so gas companies can make more money and pollute less, but destroy what's around you and you'll never know.

oops forgot the moral added 10 hours later:: Many Fox viewers are hard working country people (folk) and guess what by no fault of their own  they had their education funds cut. Those cuts favour the politicians that make money off being re-elected by constituents/local voters that know not what is happening behind closed doors that in the end hurt those local voters as in quick rich schemes for politicians.   If the Fox viewers had more complete educations in the public schools odds are they not only watch FOX but other channels and thus get a more well rounded idea as to things as science...why do you think the first things cut from schools are the Arts & Sciences?
Zilly but why not:: Those "closed doors" should be transparent doors. (idea i had decades ago was make all politicians offices of clear materials, their words/talks still are private but one can see whom they are dealing with and if any handshakes are made or their demeanor changes...BTW i know transparent in politics is not to be literal)
Trying to track the ash cloud from Pavlov... Worried this could happen.

http://gizmodo.com/a-massive-alaskan-volcano-erup tion-could-throw-the-us-i-1767551030

Link
82. vis0

Quoting 81. Dakster:

Trying to track the ash cloud from Pavlov... Worried this could happen.

http://gizmodo.com/a-massive-alaskan-volcano-erup tion-could-throw-the-us-i-1767551030

Link
CHECK the box next to each if it affects you.

  • Will it block me from watching my TV or comup'r screen [  ]
  • Will it stop me from going to buy my favorite double dipped in fat and spice chips? [  ]  (washi115 i'm joking i'm still eating healthier)
  • Will it prevent my team from winning the Major league Super Championship? (all sports wrapped into one) [  ]
  • Will is ruin my cars shine? [ ]
  • Will it interfere with the latest REALITY SHOW, Electionmania I [  ]
If none of the above, sadly most do not care.
Was watching my USGS page alerting me ~yesterday and wondering, when Dakster was going to come on.Winds outside my window gusting to 30-40mph (from 11pm, now 1251AM EDT) no joke at street level not as windy (20-30mph, gusts) but garage cans (NYC still had those thick meta;l wire type, so they hard to blow over) have blown into the street 3 times.
Hey Vis! It can affect my car's shine and ability to get my favorite high calorie desert (or food for that matter).

And has the ability to disrupt air travel in the US West Coast. (Can you imagine if LAX ot shut down for a week?)

Your sarcasm was great though... I hope your weather calms down a bit... Good thing you don't have those new plastic cans that you look at cross eyed and they fall over.
Hey guys just updating ENSO numbers yeah El Nio is going bye bye anyway here are the numbers

CPC(US) // BOM(AU)
NIO 1 2---0.9C // NIO 1 2-------
NIO 3------1.4C // NIO 3----------1.4C
NINO 3.4----1.5C // NIO 3.4--------1.4C
NIO 4------1.2C // NIO 4----------1.2C
Quoting 74. Dakster:



You gotta point there Naga. And if you flip your hair over to the other side, you'll cover it. :)

I don't get how any news organization has done anything, other than they all have a slant and skew the facts towards their point of view. But that's human nature. Not one of us here could write a truly unbiased article....


Absolutely true, however, bias aside, most of us could write something that doesn't blatantly distort reality. I think we can differentiate between lies and damn lies.
Big Sugar Should Clean their own Pollution
by Florida Sportsman Newswire %u2022 March 29, 2012 %u2022 0 Comments

Guest editorial from The Everglades Foundation

In the Everglades, the taxpayers foot the bill for the agriculture industry%u2019s mess.



The Everglades Foundation released an independent study conducted by the respected research institute, RTI International, that uncovered some rather stunning findings. We always knew taxpayers were paying a disproportionate share of the cost of cleaning up pollution flowing into the Everglades from agricultural interests south of Lake Okeechobee. We just had no idea the disparity was this bad. The numbers aren%u2019t pretty: While the giant sugar conglomerates and other agribusiness operations south of the lake produce a whopping 76 percent of the phosphorus pollution in the Everglades, they pay only 24 percent of the costs of clean up.

Who pays the rest?

You do. Floridians pay through higher property taxes and with money raised through other tax revenues to the state%u2019s general fund. We pay again (along with all other taxpayers in the U.S.) through federal tax revenues spent to finance Everglades restoration projects designed to protect this fragile ecosystem and the water supply for 7 million Floridians.

We all agree that tax dollars need to be invested in projects to save this very special place. "But it is hard to imagine why the handful of heavily subsidized sugar companies that are producing most of this pollution should be allowed to stick us with the bill to clean up their mess.

The fragile wetlands of the Everglades have long been choked by pollution, especially phosphorus from fertilizers used in industrial agriculture. Sugar cane in particular makes up the largest share of the crop land that drains directly into the national park. "But a new study shows that despite the fact that the preponderance of gunk feeding into the Everglades comes from agriculture, it is the taxpayers, not the industry, who fork over for clean up.

Why this state of affairs?



Read more: http://www.floridasportsman.com/2012/03/29/big-sug ar-should-clean-their-own-pollution/#ixzz44Gf5ojzC
Quoting 55. cajunkid:



It wasn't debunked. Are you not in search of the truth?
I can assure you the practices cane farmers here in
Louisiana use are the same as in Florida. I can also assure you that, if runoff from cane farmers here impacted crawfish in any way (there would be a war) down here.
More reading for the uninformed!

Link
Quoting 55. cajunkid:



It wasn't debunked. Are you not in search of the truth?
I can assure you the practices cane farmers here in
Louisiana use are the same as in Florida. I can also assure you that, if runoff from cane farmers here impacted crawfish in any way (there would be a war) down here.
Gonna see more of this :

UNH climatologist: Sell Portsmouth South End homes now

PORTSMOUTH — People who live in a low-lying area of the city like the South End should consider selling their house — “and I’m not kidding,” said Cameron Wake, University of New Hampshire professor of climatology and glaciology.

If there is a big coastal storm like Hurricane Sandy, “those houses are at risk of flooding” today. And it won’t get any better in the years to come, as sea levels inevitably continue to rise.

“My recommendation is why deal with the headache? Sell now while you can still get money out of the home,” he said.


Link
SandFlea -

Some other things that don't watch Fox News -

Pine beetles
Ticks
Moose
Arctic sea ice
Permafrost
The Greenland ice sheet
Atmospheric nitrogen leads to loss of plant diversity in sites across US

Rising levels of atmospheric nitrogen pollution threaten plant diversity at nearly one-quarter of sites across a widespread portion of the U.S., according a new study led by University of Colorado Boulder researchers.

The findings, which were published today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, are the first to examine ecosystem-specific vulnerabilities to atmospheric nitrogen pollution on a continental scale.

Nitrogen plays an important role in biological processes and makes up a key element of fertilizer, but previous research has shown that it is possible for plants to get too much of a good thing. Global emissions of nitrogen to the atmosphere have tripled in the last century due to agriculture and industry, and elevated levels of nitrogen have been shown to cause environmental damage, including decreased plant species richness in experimental plots.

The study examined more than 15,000 forest, woodland, shrubland and grassland sites across the country, measuring the threshold at which nitrogen inputs become harmful to plants while also taking other environmental factors such as climate and soil conditions into account.


Read more at: Link
This risk is also increased through the threat of ballast water translocation and contamination of locales - organisms travel long distances in ship ballast water and can and have caused serious problems through invasive organisms displacing local varieties, etc.

Quoting 48. RobertWC:

Is global warming causing marine diseases to spread?

Global climate change is altering the world’s oceans in many ways. Some impacts have received wide coverage, such as shrinking Arctic sea ice, rising sea levels and ocean warming. However, as the oceans warm, marine scientists are observing other forms of damage.

My research focuses on diseases in marine ecosystems. Humans, animals and plants are all susceptible to diseases caused by bacteria, viruses, parasites and fungi. Marine diseases, however, are an emerging field.


Warming waters promote marine diseases

Recent studies show that for some marine species diseases are spreading and increasing. Climate change may also promote the spread of infectious agents in oceans. Notably, warming water temperatures can expand these agents’ ranges and introduce diseases to areas where they were previously unknown.

Many diseases of marine species are secondary opportunist infections that take advantage when a host organism is stressed by other conditions, such as changes in pH, salinity or temperature. A bacterium that is dormant (and therefore noninfective) at a certain temperature may thrive at a slightly higher temperature.


12,460 year old puppies emerge from melting Siberian permafrost.

Link

I'm a bit sceptical about the very precise dating, but what do I know?
Good morning.

The Aussies update of ENSO has El Nino weakening but cautions on the Spring Barrier at long range forecasts.Neutral /La Nina have equal chance by Summer or Fall.

Tropical Pacific Ocean continues towards ENSO-neutral

Issued on 29 March 2016 | Product Code IDCKGEWW00

The decline of the 2015-16 El Niño continues in the tropical Pacific. Temperatures below the ocean surface have cooled steadily, with only the top 50 metres more than +1 °C warmer than normal. It is likely this is the coolest this top layer of ocean has been since January 2015. Atmospheric indicators reflect such changes in the ocean. For instance, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has returned to weak El Niño levels. However, some indicators, such as cloudiness near the Date Line, have been slower to respond and still show a clear El Niño signal.

International climate models suggest El Niño will continue to weaken during the southern autumn, returning to neutral levels by mid-2016. For winter and spring, climate models suggest neutral and La Niña are equally likely. However, the accuracy of forecasts made at this time of year is lower than those at other times, and therefore some caution should be exercised.

ENSO-Wrap-up
Quoting 87. swflurker:

More reading for the uninformed!

Link
I read about pumping the waters from agricultural run-off some time ago and I was initially shocked. Arguably sugar production in this state is not profitable without government subsidies and the support of the taxpayers, so it is a fair question to ask why we bother?
But the general idea of pumping storm overflow water deep into the ground deserves more research. Will the underground filter out arsenic and chemical carcinogens? I highly doubt it. But aquifers may have some filtering capacity. Every aquifer is different, and there can be multiple aquifers stacked in depth at a single location. As an example, on my property I have a 50 ft deep well for irrigation and a 350 ft deep well for cooling, while the City of Melbourne takes water from wells 650-850 ft deep (link). Some aquifers flow more freely than others, and the filtering capacity for bacteria and organics should be studied on a case-by-case basis. In the article you cite, there was no serious research, it was just done, and it is not even an experiment because no one is making measurements. That is why the outrage is warranted.
Quoting 94. JrWeathermanFL:


Nice shortwave coming in! Looks like the remnant boundary is sitting right over Tampa bay too. Hopefully I get another round of boomers
Quoting 55. cajunkid:



It wasn't debunked. Are you not in search of the truth?
I can assure you the practices cane farmers here in
Louisiana use are the same as in Florida. I can also assure you that, if runoff from cane farmers here impacted crawfish in any way (there would be a war) down here.


The area south of the lake is absolutely dominated by agricultural production, not to mention the composition of the fertilizer runoff matches the fertilizers used by said agribusiness in the region. There have been several studies on this topic, all of which have been conveniently ignored.

There's also the significant difference in population between LA and FL when it comes to runoff.

No one is saying that urban runoff isn't a factor. However, what's going on around the Okeechobee region is mostly agricultural runoff. Florida has more than 10 million acres of active farming, with a good chunk of that taking place around that region. Furthermore, even a casual inspection of population density shows that the areas around Okeechobee (and other farming regions around the smaller lakes to the north) are relatively unpopulated. Almost all of Florida's 20 million residents are located along the coastal regions, where urban coastal runoff IS a problem. The addition of agricultural runoff from the interior just makes things that much worse.
Wow, those are some really intense thunderstorms out there in the central Gulf of Mexico.



Quoting 61. sanflee76:


Yeah, Fox News is to blame for all the worlds problems.....give me a break man, you know how ridiculous you sound? Im sure you prefer a Dan Rather made up lie of a story on CBS


Dan Rather lied and got nailed to the proverbial cross for it.

Fox News lies all the time and are never held accountable for it. In fact, they'll do a Trump and double down on it.

No, Fox isn't to blame for all the world's problems. But they certainly aren't helping.
Quoting 86. swflurker:

Big Sugar Should Clean their own Pollution
by Florida Sportsman Newswire %u2022 March 29, 2012 %u2022 0 Comments

Guest editorial from The Everglades Foundation

In the Everglades, the taxpayers foot the bill for the agriculture industry%u2019s mess.



The Everglades Foundation released an independent study conducted by the respected research institute, RTI International, that uncovered some rather stunning findings. We always knew taxpayers were paying a disproportionate share of the cost of cleaning up pollution flowing into the Everglades from agricultural interests south of Lake Okeechobee. We just had no idea the disparity was this bad. The numbers aren%u2019t pretty: While the giant sugar conglomerates and other agribusiness operations south of the lake produce a whopping 76 percent of the phosphorus pollution in the Everglades, they pay only 24 percent of the costs of clean up.

Who pays the rest?

You do. Floridians pay through higher property taxes and with money raised through other tax revenues to the state%u2019s general fund. We pay again (along with all other taxpayers in the U.S.) through federal tax revenues spent to finance Everglades restoration projects designed to protect this fragile ecosystem and the water supply for 7 million Floridians.

We all agree that tax dollars need to be invested in projects to save this very special place. "But it is hard to imagine why the handful of heavily subsidized sugar companies that are producing most of this pollution should be allowed to stick us with the bill to clean up their mess.

The fragile wetlands of the Everglades have long been choked by pollution, especially phosphorus from fertilizers used in industrial agriculture. Sugar cane in particular makes up the largest share of the crop land that drains directly into the national park. "But a new study shows that despite the fact that the preponderance of gunk feeding into the Everglades comes from agriculture, it is the taxpayers, not the industry, who fork over for clean up.

Why this state of affairs?



Read more: http://www.floridasportsman.com/2012/03/29/big-sug ar-should-clean-their-own-pollution/#ixzz44Gf5ojzC



Yep, it seems to always work that way, another example of this is over fishing. Over fishing of course comes from corporate bulk fishing offshore, and when a particular species is threatened, I would no longer be able to catch the fish, yet sometimes the same companies that caught too many of that fish, will get loop holes to keep fishing, while private citizens, who make little impact in the fish population, are banned.

Companies that cause environmental damage should pay 100% for the advises costs and reparation, not only would it be a great help for the environment in the future, but it would cause them to think twice before raping the environment to make a bigger profit.

There are multiple triggers for coral bleaching, way more than just the increased water temperature cited above. In fact, cooling water temperature can also cause it. Here's a good article that includes the many triggers for coral bleaching:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_bleaching

It's in the second paragraph.
Quoting 101. Sandy82579:

There are multiple triggers for coral bleaching, way more than just the increased water temperature cited above. In fact, cooling water temperature can also cause it. Here's a good article that includes the many triggers for coral bleaching:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral_bleaching

It's in the second paragraph.
Thanks for that tidbit. Of course, the current bleaching event, the longest on record (as the headline states), isn't being caused by "cooling water temperatures". We know that because there is no cooling water where the corals are being bleached. It's being caused by warm waters--and as our unmitigated atmospheric dumping of millions of tonnes of CO2 every hour continues unabated, those waters will continue to get warmer, and warmer, and warmer, and bleaching events will increase in frequency, duration, severity, and geographic extent.

Yay, us!
HRRR is showing strong storms later today across southern Florida.
Here they come. Storms already appearing on radar in the GOM heading towards the west coast of Fl.
CFSv2 has been fixed.



Nice blob

When Roger Edwards speaks
it is wise to listen.

Excerpt from today's early (0100 cdt) severe outlook for Wednesday:
...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO WRN GULF COAST -- GENERAL THOUGHTS...
GIVEN POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH...ASSOCIATED FLOW/MASS-FIELD GEOMETRIES...AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION TO ERUPT OVER PARTS OF TX/OK...SCENARIO REGARDING TIMING/PLACEMENT/EVOLUTION OF GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL REMAINS FRAUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTIES FOR MOST OF SLGT-RISK AREA. AS SUCH...WILL CONTINUE WITH BROAD BRUSH ON UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES...ACKNOWLEDGING THAT 30%/TOTAL-SVR CONCENTRATION ULTIMATELY IS LIKELY TO BECOME APPARENT ON MESOSCALE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ERN NEB AND UPPER TX COAST. RELATIVE GAP MAY BE PRESENT IN SVR POTENTIAL OVER SOME PARTS OF SRN KS OR OK BETWEEN REGIMES DISCUSSED BELOW...HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS TOO GREAT ATTM TO DRAW EITHER TWO SEPARATE OUTLOOKS OR AREAL INDENTATION.

image is a link to the complete 0100 cdt Day 2 Convective outlook
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
152 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016

AKZ181-291500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.AF.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-160329T1500Z/
ALASKA PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLD BAY...SAND POINT
152 AM AKDT TUE MAR 29 2016

...ASHFALL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM AKDT THIS MORNING
NORTH AND EAST OF PAVLOF VOLCANO...

* LOCATION...FOR COMMUNITIES NORTH AND EAST OF PAVLOF VOLCANO
INCLUDING NELSON LAGOON.

* ASHFALL...LIGHT ACCUMULATION LESS THAN ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CARRY AND DEPOSIT VOLCANIC ASH TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF PAVLOF VOLCANO TODAY. A SHIFT IN THE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEPOSIT ASH TO AREAS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
PAVLOF.

* IMPACTS...PERSONS WITH RESPIRATORY PROBLEMS MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY BREATHING WHEN OUTSIDE. ELECTRONIC DEVICES MAY BE
DAMAGED IF NOT PROTECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... AN ASHFALL ADVISORY MEANS
THAT ASH WILL BE DEPOSITED IN THE ADVISORY AREA. PEOPLE IN AREAS
OF ASHFALL SHOULD SEAL WINDOWS AND DOORS. PROTECT ELECTRONICS AND
COVER AIR INTAKES AND OPEN WATER SUPPLIES. MINIMIZE DRIVING.
LISTEN TO YOUR RADIO STATION FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.
110. vis0

Quoting 83. Dakster:

Hey Vis! It can affect my car's shine and ability to get my favorite high calorie desert (or food for that matter).

And has the ability to disrupt air travel in the US West Coast. (Can you imagine if LAX ot shut down for a week?)

Your sarcasm was great though... I hope your weather calms down a bit... Good thing you don't have those new plastic cans that you look at cross eyed and they fall over.
Forgot to add the sarcasm flag, (can damage certain crops (vegatation or as you pointed out desserts)
Those cans if not, need to be tethered or a simple bar into loop attached to a pole extension so the can be lifted "easily" by garbage trucks or sanitation workers
Quoting 83. Dakster:

Hey Vis! It can affect my car's shine and ability to get my favorite high calorie desert (or food for that matter).

And has the ability to disrupt air travel in the US West Coast. (Can you imagine if LAX ot shut down for a week?)

Your sarcasm was great though... I hope your weather calms down a bit... Good thing you don't have those new plastic cans that you look at cross eyed and they fall over.


Hey, Dak. Ever since you moved to Alaska, there has been record heat, no snow, 100 mph storms, and now volcanoes. You want to try Hawaii next?? :)
113. vis0

Quoting 86. swflurker:

Big Sugar Should Clean their own Pollution
by Florida Sportsman Newswire %u2022 March 29, 2012 %u2022 0 Comments

Guest editorial from The Everglades Foundation

In the Everglades, the taxpayers foot the bill for the agriculture industry%u2019s mess.



The Everglades Foundation released an independent study conducted by the respected research institute, RTI International, that uncovered some rather stunning findings. We always knew taxpayers were paying a disproportionate share of the cost of cleaning up pollution flowing into the Everglades from agricultural interests south of Lake Okeechobee. We just had no idea the disparity was this bad. The numbers aren%u2019t pretty: While the giant sugar conglomerates and other agribusiness operations south of the lake produce a whopping 76 percent of the phosphorus pollution in the Everglades, they pay only 24 percent of the costs of clean up.

Who pays the rest?

You do. Floridians pay through higher property taxes and with money raised through other tax revenues to the state%u2019s general fund. We pay again (along with all other taxpayers in the U.S.) through federal tax revenues spent to finance Everglades restoration projects designed to protect this fragile ecosystem and the water supply for 7 million Floridians.

We all agree that tax dollars need to be invested in projects to save this very special place. "But it is hard to imagine why the handful of heavily subsidized sugar companies that are producing most of this pollution should be allowed to stick us with the bill to clean up their mess.

The fragile wetlands of the Everglades have long been choked by pollution, especially phosphorus from fertilizers used in industrial agriculture. Sugar cane in particular makes up the largest share of the crop land that drains directly into the national park. "But a new study shows that despite the fact that the preponderance of gunk feeding into the Everglades comes from agriculture, it is the taxpayers, not the industry, who fork over for clean up.

Why this state of affairs?



Read more: http://www.floridasportsman.com/2012/03/29/big-sug ar-should-clean-their-own-pollution/#ixzz44Gf5ojzC

i'm an expert at nothing** (please sit down WxU members and stop yelling "ya got dat right"), yet why not find out what can be reused from the waste sugar companies produce.  i'm sure its being done somewhere.
Learn from nature / gawd ALL can be recycled.
Here is a deal If sugar mills clean up their waste, technology that will help them prevent waste AND MAKE THEM MORE MONEY will be installed at less the cost that was paid in doing the clean up CORRECTLY after a 5 year period goes by ...
 
(think of it as an investment for both sides, as that is what REAL recycling is the best investment EVER!)
 
... to make sure the clean up is being done, not just a year or two of just talk and show but talk and doing (doing as in forever doing there part).
 
** One of one & a half readers might say:: But don't you (vis0) say you know an area of the sciences you call Galacsics?
Galacsics is clear matter so to most today it falls under "nothing".
Quoting 106. Grothar:

Nice blob




Too bad it isn't June. We might have had something interesting to talk about.
Record Report
Issued: 1:45 AM PDT Mar. 29, 2016 %u2013 National Weather Service

... Record daily maximum precipitation set at Reno Tahoe Airport NV...

A record precipitation amount of 0.68 inches was set at Reno Tahoe
Airport NV yesterday. This breaks the old record of 0.39 set in 1897.

Coincidentally, my PWS recorded 0.68 inches of precip as well (melted snow).
That's a monster of a "blob" and its still growing.
.."Everybody's doing the Blob-a-motion, come on baby, do the Blob-a-motion'

Quoting 117. Patrap:


Nice overcast day here on the NW side of da blob..
Gawjus and Partly cloudy here in NOLA.

I started painting the House yesterday
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT TUE MAR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
A SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THE 12Z MIA SOUNDING
THIS MORNING SHOW THAT THE 500 MB TEMPS WERE AROUND -11C AND THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB TEMPS TO COOL DOWN TO
-12C TO -13C THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...A 40
TO 50 KNOT MID LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE
SHORT WAVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE SHORT WAVE...MID LEVEL
JET...AND THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO EVEN
SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50
MPH...HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SPC ALSO HAS SOUTH FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL SEVERE OUTLOOK
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POSSIBLE STRONG TO A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR TODAY.
Quoting 114. Bucsboltsfan:



Too bad it isn't June. We might have had something interesting to talk about.


Hey, Bucs. We might have something to talk about next week!!!!
I just got a nice clap of thunder from one of the cells developing right over my location in south Fort Myers. It also just started raining heavily. I must be right in the perfect location under the western cell.
Will a storm be able to take advantage of the caribbean waters this year? That is yet to be seen
Looks like a squall line is starting to form on the southern end of the system.
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

Will a storm be able to take advantage of the caribbean waters this year? That is yet to be seen

The bomb is ticking.
Red Alert. Load all torpedo bays. Ready phasers.

For clarity, being it is Tuesday, is that the Wet or Dry Season in Florida?

tia.
The weather channel just reported on the local on the 8's that Fort Lauderdale is expected to have severe T-storms tonight with a chance for tornadoes winds of over 50 mph and small hail. Also 5-8 inches of rain? Seems ridiculous imo.
Area forecast discussion...updated 
National Weather Service Miami Florida
930 am EDT Tuesday Mar 29 2016

Update...
a short wave over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue to move
eastward and across South Florida this afternoon before moving
into the western Atlantic waters tonight. The 12z mia sounding
this morning show that the 500 mb temperatures were around -11c and the
short range models are showing the 500 mb temperatures to cool down to
-12c to -13c this afternoon over the area. At the same time...a 40
to 50 knot middle level jet will be moving through the area with the
short wave. The combination of the short wave...middle level
jet...and the cool air aloft will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop over South Florida this
afternoon. Some of the storms could even become strong to even
severe with the primary impacts being gusty winds up to 50
miles per hour...hail...frequent lightning strikes...and locally heavy
rainfall. Storm Prediction Center also has South Florida in a marginal severe outlook
for this afternoon. Therefore...we will continue to mention the
possible strong to a few severe storms in the severe weather potential statement for today along
with keeping the scattered to numerous probability of precipitation in the forecast.

Rest of the forecast looks good at this time and no other changes 
are planned.

&&

Aviation...
the winds will be light over all of South Florida taf sites today.
There could be an east and West Coast sea breeze developing along
the coasts this afternoon. However...the sea breezes will not move
inland to far this afternoon. Therefore...the taf sites will carry
a light and variable wind flow for today.

Thunderstorms in the vicinity will continue for all of the taf sites for the afternoon
hours today...as a short wave will be moving through the area from
the west which will help to generate thunderstorms. Some of the
storms could become strong to even severe with the primary impacts
being hail, gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy
rainfall. At this time will wait on putting a tempo group in for
the taf sites for this afternoon until activity gets going on the
radar. The ceiling and visible will also remain in VFR conditions
outside of any showers and thunderstorms. However...the ceiling
and visible will fall into the IFR conditions with the passage of the
showers and thunderstorms over the taf sites.
Quoting 132. Camerooski:

The weather channel just reported on the local on the 8's that Fort Lauderdale is expected to have severe T-storms tonight with a chance for tornadoes winds of over 50 mph and small hail. Also 5-8 inches of rain? Seems ridiculous imo.


Local on the 8's is the local NWS forecast for a given area...and is not a TWC product.


Previous discussion... /issued 404 am EDT Tuesday Mar 29 2016/

.Strong thunderstorms possible as disturbance passes over South
Florida today...
.Marginal risk of severe weather for South Florida today...

Discussion...
as the weak surface frontal boundary nears South Florida today,
moist air to the south of the front will combine with middle and
upper level energy passing through today to create higher shower
and thunderstorm chances compared to previous days. The main impulse
pushing in aloft from the Gulf of Mexico should arrive at the West
Coast later this morning and push across the southern peninsula
right as peak diurnal heating has provided plenty of available
instability for convection.

Steep lapse rate profiles over much of the area, including cold
500 mb temperatures, will create strong wind and hail concerns for
today with these storms. At the moment, any risk of tornadoes or
supercellular behavior seems less likely due to little available
shear. 0-1 km helicity values over South Florida are well below
100 m2/s2 today. Storm Prediction Center discusses the marginal risk of severe weather
across the region in their day 1 outlook /swody1/.
Fresh partial ASCAT of that blob in the Gulf of Mexico..
The GOM is a ticking time bomb for a massive hurricane again. I believe it's time for one unfortunately.
Quoting 138. RitaEvac:

The GOM is a ticking time bomb for a massive hurricane again. I believe it's time for one unfortunately.
I don't like how the gulf stream is practically hugging the east coast this year as well.Not saying we'll get a hurricane up here but if one were to come up the east coast it wouldn't weaken substantially like what we've seen in the past.
Quoting 130. 62901IL:

Red Alert. Load all torpedo bays. Ready phasers.





Shields Mr Scott!
Quoting 127. washingtonian115:

Will a storm be able to take advantage of the caribbean waters this year? That is yet to be seen



Cold core, but interesting origin & path.

Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:




Shields Mr Scott!


The dilithium crystals will never hold, Captain !!!!!!
The Houston/Galveston region has completely and utterly exploded population wise and development wise. Not necessarily the island of Galveston but on the mainland and inland towards Houston and all areas surrounding Houston now. If a cat 4 not even a cat 5....were to strike Freeport or west end of Galveston on a NW path, I believe this area will make it's headlines.
Meanwhile it looks like a December day outside, dreary, hazy/foggy, dark overcast


This spins up briefly from the tail end of a low that crosses Florida on Monday.


I hope Central Florida is ready for a ton of rain Monday!
"Blob" definitely has some organization to it. It has a pretty noticeable rotating head with a trailing squall line.
Quoting 140. georgevandenberghe:




Shields Mr Scott!


Our shields are being drained! 64%! 42!
Quoting 147. Sfloridacat5:

"Blob" definitely has some organization to it. It has a pretty noticeable rotating head with a trailing squall line.



It's a meso
January hurricane and blob watching in late March, certainly an interesting year so far.

Hopefully we'll be able to see what the fixed CFS is predicting in terms of ENSO later today. I personally have a bad feeling about this year.
Quoting 149. RitaEvac:



It's a meso


It's a pretty large scale circulation.
Ugly December like day







We've had two bad beach days in a row. Yesterday the sea fog never burned off at the beach. It was sunny all day in town, but the beach was really foggy.
I checked beach cam at Fort Myers Beach and there's still a decent crowd at the beach even though it's cloudy.
We've got our first warning showing up.
Quoting 152. RitaEvac:
Ugly December like day









Yes, but is the beer cold?
Quoting 149. RitaEvac:



It's a meso


Quoting 154. Sfloridacat5:

We've got our first warning showing up.



Shields have failed!

Full reverse!

Maintain all-*consoles explode*
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 155. NttyGrtty:



Yes, but is the beer cold?


I need one, it should be holding at 29F
There is much talk and panic over the most recent coral bleaching event that has resulted apparently from the current intense ENSO event superimposed over AGW.  There might be some cause to question the popular theory that places ENSO / AGW as the primary cause of mass coral  bleaching.

Corals  are not recently evolved creatures, and in fact can be traced back via the fossil record to early geologic times, long before the appearance of Vertebrates. It is therefore unlikely that recently observed increases in water temperature and possibly water pH, are primarily responsible for coral bleaching as observed in recent years - given that much higher variations in all these environmental variables have occurred over geological time. Any severe bleaching episodes that might have occurred over the aeons did not wipe out the worlds' corals.

The deleterious effects of river discharge from disturbed and eroded catchments, along with contamination from fertilizers and various pesticide and herbicidal treatments in proximity to drainage basins near coral reefs, are all amplified when a planetary scale event such as ENSO occur. The aforementioned effects of human activity can bring about disruption of species population dynamics, causing plagues of predators such as the Crown of Thorns Starfish along the Great Barrier Reef.
Slight correction: " ... increases in water temperature and possibly water pH... " should read: " .... increases in water temperature and possibly DECREASES in water pH ... " apologies :-)
Quoting 164. Fredqwert:

There is much talk and panic over the most recent coral bleaching event that has resulted apparently from the current intense ENSO event superimposed over AGW.  There might be some cause to question the popular theory that places ENSO / AGW as the primary cause of mass coral  bleaching.

Corals  are not recently evolved creatures, and in fact can be traced back via the fossil record to early geologic times, long before the appearance of Vertebrates. It is therefore unlikely that recently observed increases in water temperature and possibly water pH, are primarily responsible for coral bleaching as observed in recent years - given that much higher variations in all these environmental variables have occurred over geological time. Any severe bleaching episodes that might have occurred over the aeons did not wipe out the worlds' corals.

The deleterious effects of river discharge from disturbed and eroded catchments, along with contamination from fertilizers and various pesticide and herbicidal treatments in proximity to drainage basins near coral reefs, are all amplified when a planetary scale event such as ENSO occur. The aforementioned effects of human activity can bring about disruption of species population dynamics, causing plagues of predators such as the Crown of Thorns Starfish along the Great Barrier Reef.
So, do you believe it's a "theory" and not established fact that anomalously warm water causes coral to bleach?

Oh, dear.

It's been known for many, many, many years that coral colonies are subject to thermal stress. That's not to say there aren't other stressors that can negatively affect those colonies, such as pollution. But in this case, very clear and direct lines can be drawn between the AGW-exacerbated El Nino event and the ongoing bleaching event. IOW, while correlation isn't necessarily causation, this time it most definitely is.
Thanks Neapolitan, for clarifying the subtle, or not so subtle distinction that defines correlation vs causation ... such information is always priceless.

Now to address your problem with coral bleaching, and how "in this case ... very clear and direct lines [that] can be drawn between the AGW-exacerbated El Nino ... "

Firstly, there is no actual evidence that this most recent ENSO or previous similar events are directly or even indirectly related to AGW . Again the spectre of causation vs correlation rears its head - not simply with elevated greenhouse gases / global temperatures / powerful ENSO events ... and coral bleaching - but with a more or less parallel increase in agricultural pollution, along with sediment loads from soil disturbance sometimes tens of kilometres away from a coral reef coastline. All of these variables are probably significantly intercorrelated, but the clincher is the fact that human activities adjacent to reefs, while responsible for varying amounts of fossil fuel related emissions, also include disproportionately large amounts of the afore-mentioned soil disturbance and the application of fertilizers, herbicides and pesticides - much of which finds its way to the reefs.

Finally, singling out AGW as the primary, of not only cause of coral bleaching, flies in the face of geological history that contains far greater temperature and pH excursions than are currently prevailing - and coral - an ancient organism still survives to this day. What is unique about bleaching episodes over the last three or four decades ? At risk of repetition, ad nauseam: the variables directly related to mechanised land disturbance combined with industrially manufactured fertilizers along with various lethal compounds (lethal to coral reef communities) applied to crops in the general vicinity of river catchments discharging to reef waters, are very likely to be contained in the first (largest) Principal Component that isolates causality from intercorrelation.