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Long range oil spill forecast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on June 04, 2010

Onshore winds out of the south, southwest, or west are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico over through Tuesday, resulting in a continued threat of landfalling oil to Alabama, Mississippi, and the Florida Panhandle, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. The latest ocean current forecasts from the NOAA HYCOM model show that these winds will generate a 0.5 mph current flowing from west to east along the Florida Panhandle coast Sunday through Tuesday. If this current develops as predicted, it will be capable of bringing light amounts of oil as far east as Panama City, Florida, by Wednesday. Long range surface wind forecasts from the GFS model for the period 8 - 14 days from now predict a return to a southeasterly wind regime, which would bring the oil back over Louisiana by mid-June. If you spot oil, send in your report to http://www.gulfcoastspill.com/, whose mission is to help the Gulf Coast recovery by creating a daily record of the oil spill.

Long range oil spill outlook
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) issued a press release yesterday showing 4-month model runs (Figure 1) of where the Deepwater Horizon oil spill might go. The model runs show that given typical ocean currents in the Gulf of Mexico, we can expect the oil to eventually affect most of the Florida Panhandle, Keys, and Florida East Coast, as well as coastal areas of South Carolina and North Carolina. Very little oil makes it to the West Florida "Forbidden Zone", where offshore-moving surface currents dominate. The oil may eventually affect three foreign countries: Mexico along the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba near Havana, and the Bahamas in the Bimini Islands and along the western side of Grand Bahama Island. Once oil does get into the Loop Current, it will probably reach the coasts of France, Spain, and Portugal in about a year. The oil will be too dilute by then to be noticeable, though.

The present ocean current configuration in the Gulf features a newly formed Loop Current Eddy (dubbed "Franklin"), which will tend to capture the majority of oil that flows southwards from the Deepwater Horizon spill site. A plot of drifting buoys (drifters) launched into the Gulf May 19 - 24 (Figure 2) reveals how this clockwise-rotating eddy has been capturing southward-moving surface water. Eddy Franklin will move slowly west-southwest at 2 - 3 mph in the coming weeks. By August or September, the eddy will have moved far enough west that the Loop Current will be able to push northwards towards the spill location again, increasing the chances of oil getting into the Loop Current and being advected through the Florida Straits and up the U.S. Southeast Coast. Between now and mid-August, I doubt that a significant amount of oil will get into the Loop Current, unless a hurricane or tropical storm goes through the Gulf of Mexico. I put the odds of this happening by mid-August at 50%. The odds of a named storm in the Gulf of Mexico will increase sharply after mid-August, when the peak portion of hurricane season arrives. Past history shows a 95% chance of getting two or more named storms in the Gulf of Mexico during hurricane seasons with above-normal activity.


Figure 1. Animation from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) showing one scenario of how oil released at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico may move in the upper 65 feet of the ocean.


Figure 2. During the R/V Bellows 19-24 May 2010 Cruise into the Loop Current, drifters were dropped on the eastern edge of the Loop Current. These drifters have all been caught in Loop Current Eddy "Franklin", and are orbiting the central Gulf of Mexico in clockwise loops. Additional drifters deployed by the Coast Guard over the past few weeks (orange colors) are also shown. The colored balloons show the starting location of the drifters. Image credit: University of South Florida.

Oil spill resources
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
Oil trajectory forecasts from NOAA
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phet on Friday, June 4, 2010.

Tropical Cyclone Phet unleashes heavy rains on Oman
Tropical Cyclone Phet hit the northern tip of Oman yesterday as a Category 2 storm, bringing torrential rains and killing at least two people. Masirah, Oman recorded sustained winds of 74 mph yesterday, and Sur, Oman on the northeast coast has received 3.25 inches of rain so far. Phet was the 2nd strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Arabian Sea, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph. Only Category 5 Cyclone Gonu of 2007, which devastated Oman, was stronger. Phet has emerged from the coast of Oman this morning, but is likely to weaken over the next day due to increased wind shear. Phet should hit Pakistan as a tropical storm on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and serious flooding.

Next update
I'll probably have one update over the weekend. The tropical Atlantic is quiet right now, with no models predicting tropical cyclone development over the next seven days.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

here is # 5000
Wow the Shear has simply tumbled too!
Hi, id like thank you guys for the coverage on the severe weather last night, who were the bloggers active then, id like to thank them.
5004. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


The wave over western Africa is going towards its diurnal minimum, but the one over the Atlantic is heading towards its diurnal maximum because it is over water. So far it is nothing particularly impressive, but if it lifts north out of the ITCZ like the GFS is forecasting, it may look better in coming days.


Actually, I was referring to the one over Africa, but I really do appreciate the clarification. But they both appear to be in some form of diurinal.
5005. xcool
june 07 or june 17 frist names storms.hmm.i'm call .
I knew Levi would hog #5000!
levi is the winner lol
5008. Motttt
Well there still trying to get there nut off.. On the oil well
Link
5009. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I knew Levi would hog #5000!


LOL...I wasn't even thinking about it :P
5010. xcool
Levi what site are you using when posting the Model graphics! Thanks!
5012. xcool
lmaoo
lookiing at that satellite img theres quite a bit of activity on that itcz over there, along with the waves.
5014. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL Grothar...No one even knows what we are talking about.


I don't think anyone ever does.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Wow the Shear has simply tumbled too!
Are we in june because i look at the shear tendency map and the shear maps and i think we are in the end of july going into august.
Quoting xcool:
lmaoo
Hey scott! rob! everybody!
5017. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:
Levi what site are you using when posting the Model graphics! Thanks!


NOGAPS comes from here.
Wait, is that a tropical storm near Africa? I don't know weather so I am confused.
5019. xcool


heyyyyyy
5021. xcool
alex hey
5022. Levi32
Quoting peoriagirl:
Wait, is that a tropical storm near Africa? I don't know weather so I am confused.


No, it is just a tropical wave, and is not a concern for development out there right now.
5023. xcool
101 PAGE oooo my
Quoting xcool:
101 PAGE oooo my
Wow and not even one named storm yet this year!
5025. Asta
Quoting Levi32:


NOGAPS comes from here.

Thanks for the link
And Levi32 thx, if you were the one who Blogged about the tornadoes last night, I was lurking here to keep safe.
Levi..have you ever heard of the "The Hound of the Baskervilles"?
Quoting Levi32:


No, it is just a tropical wave, and is not a concern for development out there right now.
Quoting Levi32:


No, it is just a tropical wave, and is not a concern for development out there right now.
Good news cause I have a sister in Georgia, and they can get hurricanes.
5029. Levi32
Quoting peoriagirl:
And Levi32 thx, if you were the one who Blogged about the tornadoes last night, I was lurking here to keep safe.


I usually leave the tornado postings to those who are better than me in that area. Although I am as concerned as the rest of you when a severe outbreak is in progress, I usually stick to the tropics. There are more than enough excellent posters in here who cover the severe weather.
5030. xcool
alexh-- Just Waiting time Come you gonna need head on..Apply directly to the forehead lmao
5031. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Levi..have you ever heard of the "The Hound of the Baskervilles"?


Yes, I know the rough outline of the story from a Wishbone episode (lol)
I must be old. What is a Wishbone episode?
5033. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Yes, from a Wishbone episode (lol)


Good Lord, this whole generation is lost. LOL only kdding levi. that was a clever response. I'll explain it to Geoff later.
5034. xcool



omg shi--- cmc and ngp hmmm
5035. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I must be old. What is a Wishbone episode?


A very excellent kids' show from around the turn of the century that is no longer aired. I used to love it.
Quoting Levi32:


I usually leave the tornado postings to those who are better than me in that area. Although I am as concerned as the rest of you when a severe outbreak is in progress, I usually stick to the tropics. There are more than enough excellent posters in here who cover the severe weather.
That's cool, you guys kept me safe last night and I am very grateful to those who kept peoria safe
Thanks and bye
5038. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I must be old. What is a Wishbone episode?


It is a series about a dog who reads novels and uses the stories lines in realation to his human ownder and other dogs. Where have you been.
Quoting xcool:



omg shi--- cmc and ngp hmmm

wow in 30 hrs wth i think its crazy in developing it
In my opinion...Levi should be a featured blogger.
5041. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Good Lord, this whole generation is lost. LOL only kdding levi. that was a clever response. I'll explain it to Geoff later.


LOL.

I know....I am culturally deprived.
5042. xcool
GeoffreyWPB why?
5043. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


A very excellent kids' show from around the turn of the century that is no longer aired. I used to love it.


The turn of which century? Many of us here rember both. LOL
5044. xcool
btwntx08 wave 35 w cmc
5045. xcool
<<< pizza sosoos good mmmmm
5046. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
In my opinion...Levi should be a featured blogger.


Oh dear goodness no. Just read 456's blog from this morning. He smokes me....I don't even have the time to output that kind of superb work. It is guys like him that deserve featured status.

Besides....Dr. Masters doesn't like me because of my position on certain issues...lol.
Quoting Grothar:


It is a series about a dog who reads novels and uses the stories lines in realation to his human ownder and other dogs. Where have you been.


Still catching up on the reruns of Match Game with Gene Rayburn.
5048. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


The turn of which century? Many of us here rember both. LOL


LOL...I knew that was coming.
Quoting xcool:
<<< pizza sosoos good mmmmm

lmao
5050. xcool
:)
5051. xcool







<<<< <<<< i'm like a fat kid love cake
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
In my opinion...Levi should be a featured blogger.


Na, he is too hot headed........JUST KIDDING......LOL
Looks like the allusions need to go over Reichenbach Falls ;)
A hot-headed global warming skeptic? ;)
LOOKS Like the CAP on the oil spill has sprung a leak near the bottom of the BOP
5056. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A hot-headed global warming skeptic? ;)


Rofl.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Na, he is too hot headed........JUST KIDDING......LOL


Yeah...those hot-headed political-stock-minded-oil-spill driven bloggers are nuts!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A hot-headed global warming skeptic? ;)


I didn't say HARD-HEADED as he is that too....LOL
5059. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Oh dear goodness no. Just read 456's blog from this morning. He smokes me....I don't even have the time to output that kind of superb work. It is guys like him that deserve featured status.

Besides....Dr. Masters doesn't like me because of my position on certain issues...lol.


I don't believe that at all. Professionals don't dislike each other because they carry different views. Just the manner in which they present them. I have many different views than you and I still respect the manner in which you conduct yourself. Many of us have very divergent views. I cannot speak for Dr. Masters, but I am sure he appreciates the observations you make and the contribution you and others like you make on this blog.
5060. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


I didn't say HARD-HEADED as he is that too....LOL


I am ;)
5061. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Yeah...those hot-headed political-stock-minded-oil-spill driven bloggers are nuts!


Come on, how do you really feel? LOL
5062. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


I don't believe that at all. Professionals don't dislike each other because they carry different views. Just the manner in which they present them. I have many different views than you and I still respect the manner in which you conduct yourself. Many of us have very divergent views. I cannot speak for Dr. Masters, but I am sure he appreciates the observations you make and the contribution you and others like you make on this blog.


Well at least I've never been banned lol.
Quoting Levi32:


I am ;)


Honestly, i believe you, StormW, ScottSvb and of course Weather456 are the 4 sharpest in here that give an unbias approach to how things are. Thanks!
5064. Motttt
To me it looks like nut is welled on. Don't they have a plasma cuter or somethink else to do the work??
Link
Quoting Levi32:


Well at least I've never been banned lol.


Damit i take it all back now........ROFLMAO
5066. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


I am ;)


Opinionated is a better word. You will find that you will change many of your opinions that you now have. We all have to some degree.
Quoting Grothar:


Come on, how do you really feel? LOL


I got my elbow stuck in my ear again.
5068. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I got my elbow stuck in my ear again.


Could have been worse.
5069. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


Opinionated is a better word. You will find that you will change many of your opinions that you now have. We all have to some degree.


I am sure I will.
Quoting Grothar:


Could have been worse.


Sorry I left the chat. Internet went out.
5071. Levi32
Quoting TampaSpin:


Damit i take it all back now........ROFLMAO


Lol.
5072. xcool


5073. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Well at least I've never been banned lol.


I was banned thanks to GeoffWPB for posting a picture of the "three Stooges" Can you imagine, a man of my distinction banned for that. LOL
5074. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Sorry I left the chat. Internet went out.


.
Quoting Grothar:


I was banned thanks to GeoffWPB for posting a picture of the "three Stooges" Can you imagine, a man of my distinction banned for that. LOL


Let me fix my tie for you!
5076. Levi32
Quoting Grothar:


I was banned thanks to GeoffWPB for posting a picture of the "three Stooges" Can you imagine, a man of my distinction banned for that. LOL


Well, although I have never seen that show, that's pretty weird that you would get banned for that lol.
5077. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Let me fix my tie for you!


How could you possibly remember that?????
Levi...you have to watch The Three Stooges. It's part of American Culture.
Quoting Grothar:


How could you possibly remember that?????


Shemp told me!
5080. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Levi...you have to watch The Three Stooges. It's part of American Culture.


I know...that's what I tell everyone about Little House on the Prairie, but my brother and many others lost all respect for me when I told them that I watched that entire series...lol.
5081. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


Well, although I have never seen that show, that's pretty weird that you would get banned for that lol.


It was early morning and I believe there were only 3 or 4 people on, absolutely nothing was happening, and they lowered the beam. My family actually made a dunce cap for me and told me to sit in the corner. For real. I hadn't felt that bad since I found out Dewey had lost the election.
5082. Grothar
Quoting Levi32:


I know...that's what I tell everyone about Little House on the Prairie, but my brother and many others lost all respect for me when I told them that I watched that entire series...lol.


Well,, after that revelation, you may have dropped a few levels in my opinion as well. Only kidding.
I am a jack of all trades...master of none. And I loved Little House On The Prairie.
5084. xcool
:0
5085. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
I am a jack of all trades...master of none. And I loved Little House On The Prairie.


.
What are they lowering down.......is that the new Riser they are installing or is that Mary Poppins Balloon Basket.........LOL
And I liked Touched By An Angel also!
5088. xcool
lmao
5089. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:
What are they lowering down.......is that the new Riser they are installing or is that Mary Poppins Ballon Basket.........LOL


What are you doing still up at this hour? What are they trying now?
5090. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
And I liked Touched By An Angel also!


Never missed an episode. I always wanted that Cadillac convertible , too!
Quoting Grothar:


What are you doing still up at this hour? What are they trying now?


OLD MAN can't sleep without his Depends as i ran out and i don't wanna wet the bed.........OH and my wife works Nite shifts....LOL
LOL...From the Three Stooges...to Little House on the Prairie...to Touched By An Angel.
5093. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


OLD MAN can't sleep!


Hear ya. I don't know how I could look so good and feel so bad.
ok g2g good night scott,and all c ya later
Quoting btwntx08:
ok g2g good night scott,and all c ya later


Nite Bro!
5096. xcool
bye rob
Seriously what is that basket they have on the LIVE FEED! If you know my web go to it.
5098. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
LOL...From the Three Stooges...to Little House on the Prairie...to Touched By An Angel.


.
Quoting Grothar:


I think we were very fortunate to have lived when we did. The talent that we saw is never to be equalled. How do we explain a Jack Benny or a Bob Hope. Who would understand Sophie Tucker's appeal, or the talent of Ethel Merman. Who can remember how beautiful Elizabeth Taylor really was, or how Marilyn Monroe was liked by both men and women for her innocence.



Dont forget Laurel and Hardy.......those 2 cracked me up bad!
5100. Grothar
Time to go too. See you all later. Say Goodnight Gracie!
5101. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:



Dont forget Laurel and Hardy.......those 2 cracked me up bad!


Classic timing and got laughs with a look. Who could do that today?
5102. xcool
Link


new ecmwf
---
5104. Halyn
You are right, Grother .. there isn't anyone in Hollywood today who can even come close .. such a shame .. and with that .. I bid you gentlemen goodnight .. :)
Quoting xcool:
Link


new ecmwf


It is not updated all the way

It is only updated through 48 hours, there are 2 frames that say Wednesday
5107. xcool
Hurricanes101 nooway. ??
Quoting xcool:
Hurricanes101 nooway. ??


yes way lol
5109. xcool
lmao .damm websites
Looks like the Monsoon Season has started in Arizona and New Mexico.......wow!



5111. Motttt
BP releases apology ad: phony or heartfelt?
Link
5112. RTLSNK
This looked even worse an hour ago, at one point there were 12 seperate cells showing. One of them was a 42,000 footer with 1.25" hail.
2 consecutive runs so far

Good morning, btw

5114. Motttt
We have 3 rov's taking pics of the well leaking and 1 rov taking a pic of them???
What are they doing down there??

Link
5115. Motttt
Morning 456.. hope you got some sleep..I read every thing that you put on the blog but a little hard for me to understand .. thanks
Quoting Motttt:
Morning 456.. hope you got some sleep..I read every thing that you put on the blog but a little hard for me to understand .. thanks


Morning

yea, the genesis of tropical waves is not a simply process since I have been studying them for quite some years now.
5117. P451
Quoting Motttt:
We have 3 rov's taking pics of the well leaking and 1 rov taking a pic of them???
What are they doing down there??

Link


A lot of standing around it would seem.

What happened to closing the vents on this thing and stopping the leak?

Is this as good as it's going to get?
5118. Motttt
456 hope you don't get any oil spills..
Link
5119. Motttt
They spent all nite trying to take off (that it looked like to me)welled on nuts with a impack rinch
My concern is what a tropical storm in the GOM will do the oil later this month if the GFS verifies.
5121. Motttt
I don't want to see what will look like if that happens but it will come in time soon
5122. RTLSNK
And now for some good news, at least for this blog. It seems that Admin came in here last night and did some major cleanup work. Many comments have been replaced by empty space. Thanks guys and/or gals, hope it stays that way.
5124. Motttt
so I guess that means I can clean out me iggey list now?
5125. Motttt
Hey OZ. Didn't you get a lot of lighting storms last nite?
Good Morning everyone, 78.4 here in zephyrhills fl. Going to be hot hot hot today
Quoting Motttt:
Hey OZ. Didn't you get a lot of lighting storms last nite?


Starting yesterday PM, it was amazing here. Lots of lightning, rain, and one of the more incredible sunsets I've seen in quite a while.
5128. Motttt
Sarasota, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 47 sec ago
83 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 78 °F
Wind: 8 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.96 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 93 °F
Visibility: 8.0 miles

Tropical Update

See yall a little later
Good morning everyone....anything going on in the tropics?
5131. IKE
Good morning to all.

75.7 at my house this morning.

00Z ECMWF through June 17th.


6Z GFS through June 23rd.
Quoting IKE:
Good morning to all.

75.7 at my house this morning.

00Z ECMWF through June 17th.


6Z GFS through June 23rd.


Nothing will likely happen until the latter part of June. At the moment, a deep layered that hinders surface convergence is situated over the western Caribbean. The subtropical jet is also expected to kink farther south during much of next week.
5133. Motttt
I lived in Las Cruces and Ruidoso by the horse trak back in the late 70's
Wow, still no update from Jeff Masters. I also see that the GFS is showing a system in the GOM for two consecutive runs. And the wave train continues.
5135. Makoto1
Morning, 59 F here.

Easy to forget that very little is supposed to happen in June, but through the first week it's held pretty much to form.
Coral Gables, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 6 min 1 sec ago
Overcast
80.1 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 85%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 3.0 mph
Pressure: 29.92 in (Rising)
Heat Index: 86 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 14000 ft
Overcast 25000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 21 ft
5137. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Nothing will likely happen until the latter part of June. At the moment, a deep layered that hinders surface convergence is situated over the western Caribbean. The subtropical jet is also expected to kink farther south during much of next week.


I agree. I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't take until July....

MJO looks rather suppressed.....




Quoting Makoto1:
Morning, 59 F here.

Easy to forget that very little is supposed to happen in June, but through the first week it's held pretty much to form.


Anticipation is high in 2010. Five-thousand + posts over nothing.
5138. Makoto1
Beginning of summer break for people in school and all could be helping too. Always hard to figure out what to do really early on there.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, still no update from Jeff Masters. I also see that the GFS is showing a system in the GOM for two consecutive runs. And the wave train continues.
Yea...its quite interesting.




Got this from Weather456. One of his comments.
Quoting IKE:


I agree. I wouldn't be shocked if it doesn't take until July....

MJO looks rather suppressed.....






Anticipation is high in 2010. Five-thousand + posts over nothing.
Well the MJO doesn't completely stop tropical development, it just lowers it. I think we could see development from these African waves down the road. Well I'm off, later all.
5141. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Quoting Makoto1:
Beginning of summer break for people in school and all could be helping too. Always hard to figure out what to do really early on there.
My summer begins this Thursday, after that summer.
5143. IKE

Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic Basin
Jun 7, 2010 7:13 AM

As of Monday morning, EDT, a series of three tropical waves were found over the open North Atlantic Ocean. None of these waves are forecast to show any significant development for at least the next 48 hours due to moderate wind shear and cool sea surface water temperatures. The rest of the Atlantic remains very quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick.
I'll be having an analysis on what the GFS is showing this evening. Now I'm really leaving.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well the MJO doesn't completely stop tropical development, it just lowers it. I think we could see development from these African waves down the road. Well I'm off, later all.
Thank You! That's why people over WU are still looking at models and other AOIs.
Quoting IKE:

Tropics Quiet in the Atlantic Basin
Jun 7, 2010 7:13 AM

As of Monday morning, EDT, a series of three tropical waves were found over the open North Atlantic Ocean. None of these waves are forecast to show any significant development for at least the next 48 hours due to moderate wind shear and cool sea surface water temperatures. The rest of the Atlantic remains very quiet.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Justin Povick.


I have to ask accuweather,where are the cool sea surface temperatures they are talking about?

5147. Makoto1
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I have to ask accuweather,where are the cool sea surface temperatures they are talking about?



I think they mean the actual temperatures, not SST anomalies. It's still decently cool out there.
5148. IKE
Common blog sayings in June....

(1)It's suppose to be quiet, it's June.
(2)A named storm only happens 1 out of every 2 years in June.
(3)Just wait til July.
(4)The season doesn't really begin until August.
(5)0-0-0.
(6)SST's are really heating up.
(7)We can't even get an invest!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, still no update from Jeff Masters. I also see that the GFS is showing a system in the GOM for two consecutive runs. And the wave train continues.


He normally updates by Midday.
Quoting IKE:
Common blog sayings in June....

(1)It's suppose to be quiet, it's June.
(2)A named storm only happens 1 out of every 2 years in June.
(3)Just wait til July.
(4)The season doesn't really begin until August.
(5)0-0-0.
(6)SST's are really heating up.
(7)We can't even get an invest!



noteded
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Wow, still no update from Jeff Masters. I also see that the GFS is showing a system in the GOM for two consecutive runs. And the wave train continues.



dr m will update hils blog when he feels like updateing the blog
5152. P451
72 Hour Forecast per WeatherStreet

Note the system that forms north of Haiti and moves NW towards the SE US Coast.

5153. P451
courtesty of Weatherstreet

Atlantic Storm Climatology:

Wow, that is weird #5137,
Watching dry weather move east from Africa, and East across the Pacific. I must be reading that wrong, but the legend says time progresses and it moves down.
5155. breald
Quoting CycloneOz:


It seems you will be busy chasing down storms this hurricane season. I hope it is not as bad as they think it will be.
5156. MahFL
Most of the MDR seems to be at 25 C or so. Is it 26 or 28 you normally need for developmeant ?
Atlantic SST anomalies in the MDR continues to decrease:





Could the CFS SST anomalies forecast get lucky and be right for once?


5158. MahFL
Though looking at a different SST map most of the MDR is at 27 or 28, so it's anyones guess what the temps are.....
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Atlantic SST anomalies in the MDR continues to decrease:





Could the CFS SST anomalies forecast get lucky and be right for once?




They went down to average or still are above the average?
Quoting P451:
72 Hour Forecast per WeatherStreet

Note the system that forms north of Haiti and moves NW towards the SE US Coast.



I saw that too P451 on the NAM. What is happening is an ULL north of Haiti right now may begin to form a surface low then moves it NW then turns WNW as a UPPER Level Ridge moves north toward the Carolinas providing a WNW steering current. You have to watch these sort of systems come June & July for quick developement.
5161. beell
Quoting P451:
72 Hour Forecast per WeatherStreet

Note the system that forms north of Haiti and moves NW towards the SE US Coast.



A quick post from Friday:

And for a conditional event, a nice east coast trough split at 700mb along 20N 70W for the first of next week. Broad cyclonic flow over the central Caribbean that may/may not coincide with the passage of tropical wave.
P451:if that scenerio happens,it would be a good example of a TUTT low transitioning to a warm core surface reflection....I doubt it'll happen though...
Our next invest may come north of Haiti over the next couple of days.
5164. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON JUN 07 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK HIGH PRES OFF THE SW COAST OF FLORIDA EXTENDS E
TO THE NW BAHAMAS...WHILE A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTED FROM THE SE
BAHAMAS N-NE TO NEAR 28N72W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE
UNITED STATES COAST THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE SE...REACHING FROM
NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY TUE AFTERNOON...THEN STALL
TUE NIGHT FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN LIFT N AND
DISSIPATING BY THU. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 27N INTO THE
BAHAMAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SINK S INTO
THE NE WATERS LATE FRI.

Don't look now, but some of the models show something going into the Gulf.
Another storm should form in the Caribbean next week and this has a great chance to become ALEX and head toward the Yucatan Penisula then to Mexico or S. Texas.
Quoting CaneWarning:
Don't look now, but some of the models show something going into the Gulf.



nic
The Caribbean system could become quite an intense storm before it hits near Belize or the Rivera Maya region.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


They went down to average or still are above the average?


They are still above climatology, but not as much as they were previously.
The pattern that is shaping up across the Tropics and the US does not look good right now. With a strong Bermuda high setting up next week this could mean TS/Hurricanes hitting the SE US and TX in the near future. This looks like a 2004/2005 year all over again where just about every storm that forms hits the US.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
In my opinion...Levi should be a featured blogger.


I'll 2nd that...
Quoting StormW:


26.5C


Hey storm, the models seem to really be pushing for developement in the Caribbean next week any thoughts on this?
Quoting StormW:
Upper level anti-cyclone IVO tropical wave near 40W



That's the Caribbean storm next week guys.
Hey guys did I miss something what system Caribbean GOM MDR N of Bahamas what where how help me out guys
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey guys did I miss something what system Caribbean GOM MDR N of Bahamas what where how help me out guys


The wave near 40W is heading into the Caribbean later this week and is forecast by several models to develope and push toward the Yucatan next week.
Good morning everyone....
No reason why we shouldn't have 1 to 3 storms the second half of June with most development in the Caribbean. Second half of June looks rough for the Caribbean islands (especially the NW Caribbean).
Quoting CycloneOz:


what happened to the generator powered lighting you had priced? The flares seem to work even if it were only a temporary solution.
strong storms expected for the Fl peninsula this afternoon and evening..as a deteroirating cold front saggs into north FL it w/be a destablizing mechinism and will cause strong and possibly isloated severe wx starting early afternoon along from I-4 North and I-75 east and then sagging south and east with a convective t-storm complex forming along FLs central east coast and then moving offshore a bit after sun down,IMO....gonna get wet today!!!
where is everybody?
Quoting StormW:


Hi Storm- Now that doesn't look good for this time of year. All that juice about to traverse into the EATL.
5187. Drakoen
I see the GFS continues to forecast for development later this week in the Western Caribbean and the system could potentially get into the GOM. If the GFS continues to be consistent then you know we have something to watch.
when the ITCZ pushes further north in a month its going to get real busy,real fast.....as the SST's in the MDR combined w/lower sheer values than normal w/create a production line of strong/healthy waves propagating to the west towards a ripening carribean!!!......for the next 2 or 3 weeks the STS should keep the carib basin closed!!!
5190. srada
Good Morning Everyone

Our Meteorologist in Wilmington said we needed to watch the disturbance in the Leeward Islands..sounds like the hurricane season is getting active..
5191. breald
Quoting Jeff9641:
The pattern that is shaping up across the Tropics and the US does not look good right now. With a strong Bermuda high setting up next week this could mean TS/Hurricanes hitting the SE US and TX in the near future. This looks like a 2004/2005 year all over again where just about every storm that forms hits the US.


So, the Bermuda high will block storms from going out to sea or moving up the east coast? Florida got walloped in 2004 and we all know what happened in 2005. Does the Bermuda high maintain its strength/position the entire season or does it change?

Thanks
5192. MahFL
Jeff9641...
Another storm ? We have not had one yet in the Atlantic basin.
This pattern favors lots of landfalling systems from TX to NC. With the 2 main impact areas FL and TX as the Bermuda High will be in a prime location starting next week.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


what happened to the generator powered lighting you had priced? The flares seem to work even if it were only a temporary solution.


The flares will be additional to the generator lighting. We may have to go to places in the eye-wall without the generator.
Quoting MahFL:
Jeff9641...
Another storm ? We have not had one yet in the Atlantic basin.


Nothing coming to FL as a dominate high will protect FL but the Caribbean to TX storm is becoming a possibility next week.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Nothing coming to FL as a dominate high will protect FL but the Caribbean to TX storm is becoming a possibility next week.


Texas is easy for me.
Quoting stillwaiting:
strong storms expected for the Fl peninsula this afternoon and evening..as a deteroirating cold front saggs into north FL it w/be a destablizing mechinism and will cause strong and possibly isloated severe wx starting early afternoon along from I-4 North and I-75 east and then sagging south and east with a convective t-storm complex forming along FLs central east coast and then moving offshore a bit after sun down,IMO....gonna get wet today!!!


It's going to be nasty this afternoon / evening. Stronger than yesterday if you can believe that. My area, Jupiter, had nasty storms up till 10pm yesterday. Thunder was the deep billowing kind that shook a picture off the wall. Shotty installation, Maybe, lol.
5198. leo305
Quoting breald:


So, the Bermuda high will block storms from going out to sea or moving up the east coast? Florida got walloped in 2004 and we all know what happened in 2005. Does the Bermuda high maintain its strength/position the entire season or does it change?

Thanks


it changes, but a stronger high means the storm moves further west..
Quoting breald:


So, the Bermuda high will block storms from going out to sea or moving up the east coast? Florida got walloped in 2004 and we all know what happened in 2005. Does the Bermuda high maintain its strength/position the entire season or does it change?

Thanks
Quoting stillwaiting:
strong storms expected for the Fl peninsula this afternoon and evening..as a deteroirating cold front saggs into north FL it w/be a destablizing mechinism and will cause strong and possibly isloated severe wx starting early afternoon along from I-4 North and I-75 east and then sagging south and east with a convective t-storm complex forming along FLs central east coast and then moving offshore a bit after sun down,IMO....gonna get wet today!!!




yeah, the PW at tampa is at 2.37 right now! With an LI of -8!


Man I can't wait till we get back to a southeast flow though, we haven't more then a little brief downpour the past 10 days accept for thurs night when we had a 5 inch in one hour slammer.

This westerly flow pattern usually has more rain coming off the water than this, I'm really surprised how dry its its been on the west coast of Florida lately considering the deep tropical air mass, we usually get numerous trains of thunderstorms off the gulf in this pattern. Its been nothing but east coast favoring last week or so.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's going to be nasty this afternoon / evening. Stronger than yesterday if you can believe that. My area, Jupiter, had nasty storms up till 10pm yesterday. Thunder was the deep billowing kind that shook a picture off the wall. Shotty installation, Maybe, lol.


Yes... Jupiter has been getting hammered over the past few days. Yesterday's storms had some really strong gusts that came with them...it was pretty impressive.
new blog
5204. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Not too sure right now about development in the Caribbean from the wave near 37W next week. Based on it's current speed, it's gonna take about 84-96 hours to reach 60W, right at the Islands. Current wind shear forecast map shows shear in the Caribbean by the time it would enter.



It will not be from the wave in the central Atlantic. This appears to be associated with on e of the low-latitudes that advect over South America with he poleward portion of the wave axis extending into the Caribbean.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Dont forget Laurel and Hardy.......those 2 cracked me up bad!

Yay someone that's heard of them! One summer I was at the beach and got bad sunburn so was sitting in a cold dark room and channel flipping, that's how I found them!