WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Little Development Threat in Atlantic; The Story of This Week's Remarkable Floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:40 PM GMT on August 16, 2014

A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Friday was between the Cape Verde Islands and Africa on Saturday morning, but is headed west-northwest into drier air. Satellite loops show the wave has a closed surface circulation, but heavy thunderstorm activity is lacking due to high wind shear of 25 knots and dry air. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 95L is entering a dry airmass. Sea Surface Temperatures beneath 95L were a marginal 26°C on Saturday, but were predicted to fall to 25.5°C by Sunday, limiting the potential for development. The wave is drifting slowly west-northwest, and will affect the weather over the Cape Verde Islands Saturday and Sunday. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, European, and UKMET) develop 95L. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 20%.

A second tropical wave midway between the Cape Verdes Islands and the Lesser Antilles Islands is headed west at about 15 mph. This wave has a decent amount of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorms due to dry air. Some of the members of the GFS and European ensemble model predict that this wave could develop, but the atmosphere is likely far too dry for this to occur.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image of 95L between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands at approximately 8:00 am EDT August 16, 2014. Image credit: NASA.

The story of this week's remarkable floods in Detroit, Baltimore, Long Island, and Maine
This week saw one of the most remarkable summer rainstorms in U.S. history, as Detroit, Baltimore, Long Island, and Maine all suffered top-five rainiest days in their history. Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, offers his take on the storm in his latest post, Incredible East Coast Rainfall Event of August 12-14. Dr. Marshall Shepherd, who is Director of the Atmospheric Sciences Program at University of Georgia and 2013 President of the American Meteorological Society (and hosts a noon EDT Sunday weather talk show on The Weather Channel called "Weather Geeks"), has a post discussing this topic in more detail, Recent Urban Floods: A simple equation. His equation:

Urban Flooding = Increase in intensity of top 1% rain events + expanding urban impervious land cover + storm water management engineered for rainstorms of "last century"


Figure 2. Flooding near Islip, New York, on August 13, 2014. Islip set an all-time New York state record for 24-hour precipitation with 13.57". Image credit: wunderphotographer Hurricane765.

Wunderground has an excellent new infographic on floods.

Wunderground's climate change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, offers his thoughts on this week's remarkable floods.

Jeff Masters
Flooding In Ronkonkoma
Flooding In Ronkonkoma
The streets are currently waist high with water. Time to break out the watercraft!

Hurricane Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting JLPR2:
Trying to create a ring of convection around the very broad LLC.

That's a very generous interpertation of some scattered convection. :-)
Quoting 428. JLPR2:



This is the part I think will probably give the wave a chance. In comparison Bertha darted across the CATL.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has developed in association with
a broad area of low pressure located about 1000 miles west of the
Cape Verde Islands. Some gradual development of this system is
possible during the next few days while it begins to move slowly
westward
across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


The end of BORING fast-moving/sheared/weak TS :-)
Quoting opal92nwf:

If there was just a little island out there where the eye would go over while at peak intensity and be able to experience that that would be incredible
I'm assuming you mean "If I was in some kind of protective bubble so I could experience 180 mph winds and not die" kind of incredible. ;=)
Quoting 495. CaribBoy:



Waiting for it to visit me

I think its going to be a low rider, but it is so huge , I think you'll get much needed rain .
505. SLU
Quoting 498. CaribBoy:



The LEEWARDS still need more and more and more rain!



Hard to believe that even with all the SAL and dry air the rainfall has been well above normal from Africa to the Windwards.
An echo from last year. A newcomer who probably was miffed at and interpreted our constant posting of model runs and such as doomcasting... disappointingly, she was correct in her prediction

648. 7:41 PM GMT on August 10, 2013 0
why do people keep trying to scare people.. nothing is gonna happen
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
507. silas
Normally this would be the point where I'd say "Hey guys, the tropics are dead, so why don't we talk about (insert severe weather event of some sort)?" but unfortunately there's not much to talk about there either...

Not that having no tornadoes or hurricanes for a while is bad, but it's way too boring for me =)

Night all.
Quoting 503. sar2401:

I'm assuming you mean "If I was in some kind of protective bubble so I could experience 180 mph winds and not die" kind of incredible. ;=)

Of course.... (:
509. JLPR2
Quoting 501. sar2401:

That's a very generous interpertation of some scattered convection. :-)


It's scattered convection around a broad LLC in the process of moistening its environment.

Is that better? XD
Quoting CaribBoy:


The end of BORING fast-moving/sheared/weak TS :-)
I give it a 40/60.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Interesting revelation in the pressure pattern this update.

Yes, it is, although I assume that the high will build back in behind the cold front. I'm not sure we've seen the end of the high pressure, high dust regime yet.
Quoting JLPR2:


It's scattered convection around a broad LLC in the process of moistening its environment.

Is that better? XD
So could this be the beginning of major hurricane?
513. JLPR2
Quoting 502. CaribBoy:



The end of BORING fast-moving/sheared/weak TS :-)


Watch them turn into a beautiful hurricanes turning NW before the islands...
Nah... XD
514. JLPR2
Quoting 512. HurricaneAndre:

So could this be the beginning of major hurricane?


That's quite a stretch, let it try to become a TS before considering H strength.
What would give the AOI?
A 20/30
B 30/30
C 30/40
D 40/40
E same
F your choice

Me F 40/60.
Quoting opal92nwf:
An echo from last year. A newcomer who probably was miffed at and interpreted our constant posting of model runs and such as doomcasting... disappointingly, she was correct in her prediction

648. 7:41 PM GMT on August 10, 2013 0
why do people keep trying to scare people.. nothing is gonna happen
Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: August 7, 2013 Posts: 0 Comments: 18
BWAHAHAhaha...
Don't just hate it when some newbie gets it right while we all sit here staring at satellite photos and model runs. Frankly, it's not much different now than it was last August. We should all get drunk. :-)
Contrasting with much of 2013, the surge of blog activity with Arthur was exciting and refreshing. Now we are back down to the core group of bloggers again. Reminds me of a night I came on here about this time last year during the "doldrums." There was literally like only 4 or 5 people on.

This blog is going to be hit with a bomb if we have something like a major hurricane in the GOMEX (that's not going to Mexico)
Quoting JLPR2:


It's scattered convection around a broad LLC in the process of moistening its environment.

Is that better? XD
Absolutely. Nice "glass half full" kind of post. :-)
Quoting 171. PedleyCA:


Your link didn't work. I think you meant to post this Spaceflight Now
Thanks, PedleyCA. I actually meant to post this link and I'll fix it in the original comment.
Sorry for playing the devil's advocate a little bit back there. Just feel bewildered right now that's all :p
521. JLPR2
Quoting 515. HurricaneAndre:

What would give the AOI?
A 20/30
B 30/30
C 30/40
D 40/40
E same
F your choice

Me F 40/60.



F 10/40
Trashlantic...

Another word to add to the rubbish dictionary.. :P
Quoting opal92nwf:
Contrasting with much of 2013, the surge of blog activity with Arthur was exciting and refreshing. Now we are back down to the core group of bloggers again. Reminds me of a night I came on here about this time last year during the "doldrums." There was literally like only 4 or 5 people on.

This blog is going to be hit with a bomb if we have something like a major hurricane in the GOMEX (that's not going to Mexico)
That's what I'm afraid of. This blog barely works right on a normal day. A real hurricane threatening the Gulf Coast or the NE US will cause a total implosion of the servers. I'm certain there are tens of thousand of new people since Isaac and Sandy who rarely post, but they will when something is actually happening. That's compared to now, when the only thing happening is fantasy storms long out in the distant mists of time.
Well, since this year is shaping up to be somewhat like 2013 (with the many Cape Verde misfires/fails), maybe we'll get a Karen-part-2 minus the obliteration in the Gulf.
Quoting JLPR2:


F 10/40
Does he mean right at this minute in time? That's important, since you would have missed the TD if you saw it an hour later last night. :-)
Quoting 511. sar2401:

Yes, it is, although I assume that the high will build back in behind the cold front. I'm not sure we've seen the end of the high pressure, high dust regime yet.


Stay tuned. That new X could be the Azores high. Obviously will filter east but it's at the latitude it should be this time of year. More notably is that the trough will cut off the flow of SAL in the near term and what will be 96L will duck under high pressure and increasing SST's ahead.
527. beell
This product does not depict moisture or lack of. Just the dust.

Quoting JLPR2:


That's quite a stretch, let it try to become a TS before considering H strength.
That Andre is such a card...
Quoting opal92nwf:
Well, since this year is shaping up to be somewhat like 2013 (with the many Cape Verde misfires/fails), maybe we'll get a Karen-part-2 minus the obliteration in the Gulf.
All I can say is I WANT SOME ACTION!!!!IS THAT HARD TO ASK??!!
Quoting sar2401:
That Andre is such a card...
You really think so, do you I'm cool.
531. JLPR2
Quoting 525. sar2401:

Does he mean right at this minute in time? That's important, since you would have missed the TD if you saw it an hour later last night. :-)


95L reached TD strength, I stand by that, an area of low pressure with a closed circulation, winds of at least 30mph and convection over the center is a TD in my book.

The fact that it lasted less than patience in this blog doesn't take that away. xD
Quoting beell:
This product does not depict moisture or lack of. Just the dust.

That's like a 10 times lifetime supply of dust right there. All that red just can't be good for our little "x".
Quoting 525. sar2401:

Does he mean right at this minute in time? That's important, since you would have missed the TD if you saw it an hour later last night. :-)


I honestly believe that 90L qualified as a TD for about 12 hours..lol
And 95L somewhat..It probably would have been one if its clump of convection didnt die off..
534. beell
Quoting 532. sar2401:

That's like a 10 times lifetime supply of dust right there. All that red just can't be good for our little "x".


Line up 40W and 72 hrs. Somebody has to keep the dream alive. Actually, the least "red" in a while.
Quoting JLPR2:


95L reached TD strength, I stand by that, an area of low pressure with a closed circulation, winds of at least 30mph and convection over the center is a TD in my book.

The fact that it lasted less than patience in this blog doesn't take that away. xD
If that ASCAT pass had been a couple of hours before the 8:00 pm, you might have been right. By the time 2:00 came around, it clearly wasn't a TD. For now, at least, your claim is assigned to the dustbin of history.
95L not doing well tonight;

a shadow of its former self.
Quoting beell:


Line up 40W and 72 hrs. Somebody has to keep the dream alive. Actually, the least "red" in a while.
I did notice that the red had decreased. I also noticed that the supply of red over Africa had an awful lot of purple. It doesn't seem very likely that the dust supply is suddenly going to shunted off to Iceland. A little bit of dust seems to still be too much for our waves this year.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
What would give the AOI?
A 20/30
B 30/30
C 30/40
D 40/40
E same
F your choice

Me F 40/60.



I give E. 0/0 Ch there two march dry air wind shear may be ok for the most part but with it being bone dry. I don't see march of any thing coming from it
Quoting 529. HurricaneAndre:

All I can say is I WANT SOME ACTION!!!!IS THAT HARD TO ASK??!!

Kinda would be hard to ask if you wanted to use those words..
I WANT SOME ACTION?
SOME ACTION I WANT?
I ACTION WANT SOME?
ACTION? I WANT SOME!
SOME WANT ACTION I?

pretty hard to ask...
If 95L is gone, why is it still on here?

Quoting Chicklit:
95L not doing well tonight;

a shadow of its former self.



95L is gone no longer on the back up navy site still find it odd noaa still has it floater up likely be take in down soon it's sould now be called ex 95L
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Kinda would be hard to ask if you wanted to use those words..
I WANT SOME ACTION?
SOME ACTION I WANT?
I ACTION WANT SOME?
ACTION? I WANT SOME!
SOME WANT ACTION I?

pretty hard to ask...
ACTION?...WANT SOME?...I? :-)
Quoting 540. unknowncomic:

If 95L is gone, why is it still on here?




12Z was the last run. It's gone for now. Will be back IMO in some form.
5Days!
545. beell
Quoting 499. sar2401:

Not if it was jet propelled. :-) It clearly said "A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 12N37W." I'm just a messenger here.


So what happened to the wave at 44W moving west at 10-15 knots on the 2PM TWDAT? I'm just a curious here.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
All I can say is I WANT SOME ACTION!!!!IS THAT HARD TO ASK??!!




Your not going two get the ACTION you want this year if you want ACTION you need two look in the E and W PAC. That is where the ACTION will be staying this season so if you want two track storms that's the place you want two be the Atlantic is on vacation this season it's going two be a long slow season for the ones that are going for ACTION. In the Atlantic you may want two look in the E and W PAC that is where all the fun is
Quoting unknowncomic:
If 95L is gone, why is it still on here?

Because that graphic comes from a water agency, and they don't work weekends.

But seriously, 95L is dead as a doornail. It's gone from the official Navy site. It still has a GOES floater though. It seems like, unlike us, they are in no hurry to change things until they get word 96L has formed. All this adding and deleting is a lot of work. :-)

TROPICAL STORM KARINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 16 2014

The low-level center of Karina was exposed to the east of the deep
convection in the last-light visible images, consistent with the
nearly 15 kt of shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS. Overall, the cloud
pattern remains relatively unimpressive, with little banding and a
general decrease in the cold convective tops during the past few
hours. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on the latest
Dvorak estimate from SAB. Little change in intensity is expected
during the next 24 hours, but some re-strengthening is forecast
after that time as SSTs along the forecast track begin to increase a
little. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one
and is near or a bit above the IVCN intensity consensus.

The latest satellite fixes yield an initial motion estimate of
260/10. Karina will continue moving westward to west-southwestward
for the next couple of days as the cyclone is steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the steering
currents weaken as the ridge erodes and the global models show other
tropical cyclones possibly forming east and west of Karina. Little
net motion is expected after 48 hours, and confidence in the details
of the track forecast beyond that time is lower than normal. The new
NHC track forecast is close to the previous one, but a little faster
in the first 36 to 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 17.8N 126.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 17.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 17.1N 129.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 16.6N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 16.0N 132.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 16.0N 132.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 16.0N 133.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
ECMWF, GEM, and FIM on board with development.





Quoting 547. sar2401:

Because that graphic comes from a water agency, and they don't work weekends.

But seriously, 95L is dead as a doornail. It's gone from the official Navy site. It still has a GOES floater though. It seems like, unlike us, they are in no hurry to change things until they get word 96L has formed. All this adding and deleting is a lot of work. :-)


Just have to remember to look at the times. It's the only map I use. Last run was 12Z on the map.
Quoting beell:


So what happened to the wave at 44W moving west at 10-15 knots on the 2PM TWDAT? I'm just a curious here.
I think someone made a mistake. There was a wave at 44w at 0000z on 8/14, as shown on this map -



That very same wave is now off the coast of Venezuela, as shown by this map -



Fat fingers? Summer intern?
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Just have to remember to look at the times. It's the only map I use. Last run was 12Z on the map.
Well, that too.
Quoting 546. Tazmanian:
The life of the party!




Your not going two get the ACTION you want this year if you want ACTION you need two look in the E and W PAC. That is where the ACTION will be staying this season so if you want two track storms that's the place you want two be the Atlantic is on vacation this season it's going two be a long slow season for the ones that are going for ACTION. In the Atlantic you may want two look in the E and W PAC that is where all the fun is
Aight. 4 systems in the eastern pacific according to the GFS. Lol

Quoting 549. GTstormChaserCaleb:

ECMWF, GEM, and FIM on board with development.






How close does the FIM take it to the coast again?
Hello all. Just checking in.
Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised at the lack of activity for this time of year. It looks like an El Niño out there without the actual enso feature to back it up. While the Atlantic dries up into a desert, the eastern pacific continues to pump out storms as we near the basin's peak with 2-3 more storms that could form before the end of the month.
I won't be 'that guy' that updates their hurricane forecast in the middle of the season, but If I did go back to change my predictions, I'd probably reduce them down to 8-3-0. Quite a pathetic display once again in the tropics.

Goodnight all.
558. beell
Quoting 551. sar2401:

I think someone made a mistake. There was a wave at 44w at 0000z on 8/14, as shown on this map -



That very same wave is now off the coast of Venezuela, as shown by this map -



Fat fingers? Summer intern?


Those are the wrong maps (one of them, anyway) for our discussion.

Your top map is is from 00Z on the 14th. The wave near 44W is x94L. The bottom map is 18Z today. The wave in the eastern Caribbean is...still...x94L.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Hello all. Just checking in.
Quite frankly I'm a bit surprised at the lack of activity for this time of year. It looks like an El Niño out there without the actual enso feature to back it up. While the Atlantic dries up into a desert, the eastern pacific continues to pump out storms as we near the basin's peak with 2-3 more storms that could form before the end of the month.
I won't be 'that guy' that updates their hurricane forecast in the middle of the season, but If I did go back to change my predictions, I'd probably reduce them down to 8-3-0. Quite a pathetic display once again in the tropics.

Goodnight all.
Yeah, maybe is turning out to be like 1914. ;)
560. JLPR2
Here is our broad AOI in color.

I'm still in the process of calculating the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the top 10 Pacific hurricane seasons so we can compare activity thus far to those years--in the meantime, I made a pie chart of the ACE by storm for this season. Be mindful of the fact that I have combined the ACE for storms that originated in the East Pacific but tracked into the Central Pacific (Genevieve, Iselle, Julio).

The single greatest contributor so far has been Hurricane Julio, accounting for 23.9% of the seasonal total (91.255 units), while the single least contributor has been Tropical Storm Boris, accounting for 0.0026% of the seasonal total.

Quoting 549. GTstormChaserCaleb:

ECMWF, GEM, and FIM on board with development.







That's only one set of model runs. Wait a little longer for consistency, and then go from there. Don't set yourself up for disappointment. The development originates from consolidated gyre of ex95L and two other African waves. The large elongation of lowered pressures from east to west would result in a high uncertainty of cyclone genesis due to the unknown location of exactly where a surface low may try to develop along the axis and the lack of resolution with the models in these situations. If it forms too far east or west it may not develop, so it will have to find a sweet spot and develop from there.
563. beell
Ok, I'm out. Night all.
Quoting HurricaneAndre:
What would give the AOI?
A 20/30
B 30/30
C 30/40
D 40/40
E same
F your choice

Me F 40/60.

I'd say either E same 10/20%
Or A 20/30% or B 30/30% or F 10/30%

I haven't got my early update from NHC yet
Quoting 556. sar2401:

Taz has been called many things. Life of the party is one of the more rare terms.


Who else is attending that party, eesh! Tonight at SAL'S, featuring, "You've been reported!", Taz dazzles with dryer humor than the Atlantic. More laughs than this season is featuring majors in the Atlantic, Taz delivers just like the 2014 Atlantic season!
Quoting JLPR2:
Here is our broad AOI in color.


Yep got some work to do
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm still in the process of calculating the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for the top 10 Pacific hurricane seasons so we can compare activity thus far to those years--in the meantime, I made a pie chart of the ACE by storm for this season. Be mindful of the fact that I have combined the ACE for storms that originated in the East Pacific but tracked into the Central Pacific (Genevieve, Iselle, Julio).

The single greatest contributor so far has been Hurricane Julio, accounting for 23.9% of the seasonal total (91.255 units), while the single least contributor has been Tropical Storm Boris, accounting for 0.0026% of the seasonal total.




Why do you have Genevieve ace at only 3.75 I find that vary low for a storm that came a cat 5 And it really added some ace when it was in the C and W PAC I all so think it added some good ace when it was 1st in the E PAC
Quoting 554. Thrawst:

Aight. 4 systems in the eastern pacific according to the GFS. Lol



Choo, choo.

We're going to run out of names this season if things don't slow down. Eleven named storms in the East Pacific so far, another one forecast to form this upcoming week, and three more to end August.

Quoting 567. Tazmanian:




Why do you have Genevieve ace at only 3.75 I find that vary low for a storm that came a cat 5 And it really added some ace when it was in the C and W PAC I all so think it added some good ace when it was 1st in the E PAC

This chart only includes ACE for Pacific hurricanes (broad term; hurricanes can also be used to mean tropical cyclones), so east of the International Dateline (east of 180W). Genevieve didn't become a Category 5 typhoon until entering the West Pacific. Before then, it was a struggling storm.
Meanwhile, in Alabama...



Gosh darn.

Hey Joe, Time to hit Home Depot and get some Plywood....
Going to California
Quoting 568. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Choo, choo.

We're going to run out of names this season if things don't slow down. Eleven named storms in the East Pacific so far, another one forecast to form this upcoming week, and three more to end August.




Hey, so far this East Pacific season has been very fun to track. Not many have impacted land and many just die in the central pacific graveyard due west of Baja. Would love to see a Cat 5 though.
573. flsky
Anyone from the Detroit area? I'm set to be deployed there soon. Can anyone give me a clue as to what to expect weather-wise? When does the cold weather start? What about rain and snow during the fall?
Oh hail...

Flash Flood in Pakistan on Saturday, 16 August, 2014 at 04:32 (04:32 AM) UTC.
Description
Heavy rains and hailstorms have killed at least 16 people in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province Friday, a media report said. More than 80 people have been injured in severe hailstorms that hit Peshawar city in northwest Pakistan and wrecked havoc with life and properties in major parts of the city Friday evening, dawn online reported. The officials confirmed the death of 16 people from rain-related incidents in Peshawar. The rescue personnel have been facing problems due to choked roads and expressed fears that the death toll may increase. Taking note of the damage, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced compensation of Pakistani rupees 300,000 to the family members of each of the deceased and Pakistani rupees 100,000 to each injured person. Nawaz also directed the National Disaster Management Authority to assess the losses of people affected by rain in Peshawar and help in their rehabilitation. According to reports, 10 people, including six children and two women, were killed and 50 others injured when the roof of a madrasa and boundary walls collapsed in the city. Meanwhile, over 20 trucks of food and related materials were dispatched for the rain affected residents of Peshawar, the report said.
Quoting 568. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Choo, choo.

We're going to run out of names this season if things don't slow down. Eleven named storms in the East Pacific so far, another one forecast to form this upcoming week, and three more to end August.



If all those storms actually come to pass, that's going to develop a lot of southerly fetch over the coastal waters, playing havoc with the normal current. We've already seen a prolonged weakness of the upwelling from Point Reyes south resulting in above 60F SSTs along the Central California coast.
Rescue efforts are ongoing in Nepal.
Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 16 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -7.1
Average for last 90 days -1.7
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.5
Quoting 522. JrWeathermanFL:

Trashlantic...

Another word to add to the rubbish dictionary.. :P

It's years like this when the two major oceans ought to exchange names.
KoritheMan: The cops are here. I don't know the whole story yet.

o.O
Quoting 573. flsky:

Anyone from the Detroit area? I'm set to be deployed there soon. Can anyone give me a clue as to what to expect weather-wise? When does the cold weather start? What about rain and snow during the fall?


Feel free to shoot wxchaser97 a email. He lives in the suburbs of Detroit. He's been lurking here recently, but he'll answer your questions.
Quoting 580. Astrometeor:

KoritheMan: The cops are here. I don't know the whole story yet.

o.O


Cops are where?
Quoting 582. VAbeachhurricanes:



Cops are where?


My apartment. Or they were, anyway.

Apparently there's this drunk dude in the apartment on the opposite side, and he and his buddies have been trying to break into people's vehicles for some time.
Local NWS discussion here in the SF Bay Area has been mentioning the possibility (thus far low) of an early season North Pacific trough drawing in a tropical impulse which, if it were to occur, would bring copious rains to Central California about a week from now. I assume that tropical impulse is 91E which the GFS brings near the California coast in about a week's time. Drought denter?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Meanwhile, in Alabama...



Gosh darn.
Hey, I saw that guy down in the swamp the other day. He was one of the babies....
Quoting KoritheMan:


My apartment. Or they were, anyway.

Apparently there's this drunk dude in the apartment on the opposite side, and he and his buddies have been trying to break into people's vehicles for some time.
I hope they hooked 'em up and dragged them off. Maybe people will get their stereos back.
Quoting BayFog:
Local NWS discussion here in the SF Bay Area has been mentioning the possibility (thus far low) of an early season North Pacific trough drawing in a tropical impulse which, if it were to occur, would bring copious rains to Central California about a week from now. I assume that tropical impulse is 91E which the GFS brings near the California coast in about a week's time. Drought denter?
91E is the logical suspect. Does anyone remember when I said, before hurricane season, that I thought this was the year California would see at least the remnants of a TS? Probably not, but I really did.
Quoting Skyepony:
Rescue efforts are ongoing in Nepal.
Along with the weather, this is the major problem in Nepal -

A 10-year insurgency ended in 2006, but politicians have been unable to agree on a constitution. With government activities at a standstill, much of the country’s infrastructure is crumbling or in poor repair.

“The rescue and relief distribution to the victims is sluggish,” said Sanjay Gautam, a member of the Constituent Assembly for the governing Nepali Congress Party from Bardiya. “As a lawmaker I am really ashamed with the government’s functioning and response.”


Link
Quoting beell:
Ok, I'm out. Night all.
GN, Beell
Quoting beell:


Those are the wrong maps (one of them, anyway) for our discussion.

Your top map is is from 00Z on the 14th. The wave near 44W is x94L. The bottom map is 18Z today. The wave in the eastern Caribbean is...still...x94L.
What I'm saying is someone mistakenly transferred x94L's position on the map to today from the 14th, thus we ended with a phantom wave. I'm only guessing of course, but there clearly was no wave at 44W today.
Quoting 583. KoritheMan:



My apartment. Or they were, anyway.

Apparently there's this drunk dude in the apartment on the opposite side, and he and his buddies have been trying to break into people's vehicles for some time.


A great way to get shot for pocket change. Car shopping is usually the first step to larger crimes.
Quoting 581. Astrometeor:



Feel free to shoot wxchaser97 a email. He lives in the suburbs of Detroit. He's been lurking here recently, but he'll answer your questions.
He's also been affected by the recent historic flooding and is still helping with the cleanup. He may be slow to answer any questions, but will try to do so in a timely manner. He also sometimes randomly talks in the 3rd person, like now!

I'm actually going to try to write a blog about my experiences with the record rains/flooding tomorrow or Tuesday as I'll be at a NASCAR race today.
593. OCF
Some summer rain in California? I could appreciate that, rare as it is.
Quoting 587. sar2401:

91E is the logical suspect. Does anyone remember when I said, before hurricane season, that I thought this was the year California would see at least the remnants of a TS? Probably not, but I really did.


Are you channeling your inner WKC? :) Like I said...... But yes you did, threading the needle through waters that cold and still maintaining some tropical characteristics is quite the challenge. Has happened, what, once ever really before?
Quoting 592. wxchaser97:

He's also been affected by the recent historic flooding and is still helping with the cleanup. He may be slow to answer any questions, but will try to do so in a timely manner. He also sometimes randomly talks in the 3rd person, like now!


Can you tell him he needs to get more active on WU again? The whole lurking thing really isn't his style.
Wind shear is on the increase across the Caribbean once again, and the GFS ensemble mean shows it remaining anomalously high over the next two weeks.

Sigh.

Quoting 584. BayFog:

Local NWS discussion here in the SF Bay Area has been mentioning the possibility (thus far low) of an early season North Pacific trough drawing in a tropical impulse which, if it were to occur, would bring copious rains to Central California about a week from now. I assume that tropical impulse is 91E which the GFS brings near the California coast in about a week's time. Drought denter?

GEOS-5 was showing that for a few days & has dropped it. Sorry, this is all the rain it shows for Central California for the next two weeks. Has a little rain for extreme Southern California on Thursday.




Keeps showing dumps of heavy rain around upper midwest, Michigan area.

Yes, sigh TA, more waves, more dying waves, and no chance of a CV reaching the Gulf. Early September before we see our next named storm? Season shaping up in the under ten category. One of the slowest in history. Hate to say it but 7-3-0 may be in the ballpark. What do you see for September? SAL lessening and vertical instability on the increase is a given, but will it be enough to get some decent storms?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Wind shear is on the increase across the Caribbean once again, and the GFS ensemble mean shows it remaining anomalously high over the next two weeks.

Sigh.


You sure about that

Quoting 594. DeepSeaRising:



Are you channeling your inner WKC? :) Like I said...... But yes you did, threading the needle through waters that cold and still maintaining some tropical characteristics is quite the challenge. Has happened, what, once ever really before?

A Category 1 hurricane hit San Diego in early October 1858 (obviously not a lot of information is known about it), and a tropical storm hit San Pedro in late September 1939.
Quoting 571. PedleyCA:


Hey Joe, Time to hit Home Depot and get some Plywood....
Going to California

I would LOVE to see a Cat. 1 go into LA in the sense of seeing the reaction and effects.
sar~ I think we discussed it. I went with 26-10-6 for the EPAC. With numbers like that, couldn't help gut give that better odds than most years.
Anyway I'll be back in about an hour
Quoting opal92nwf:
Sorry for playing the devil's advocate a little bit back there. Just feel bewildered right now that's all :p
Dry air is there devouring everything that tries to do sonethibg....
Quoting 595. Astrometeor:



Can you tell him he needs to get more active on WU again? The whole lurking thing really isn't his style.
I've been rather busy lately. Of course there has been the flooding and cleanup, but I've just been overall busy. I did just recently get accepted to Central Michigan University, which has a good meteorology program and I can get at least $8,000 in scholarships per year. Already been up there once, like the campus, like the program, and really like one of the met professors.
606. csmda
It has been really, really hot here and I don't like it. Also, I am DONE with tourists. Seriously, GO HOME!! You can't be hot and deal with people who don't know where they're going. I know it's whiny... At least learn how to drive and don't be a jerk! I think they forget that some of us LIVE here. And why do people leave everything on the beach? How hard is it to pick up your stuff?

We need some rain. I can't believe a little north of us it rained today because it was sunny and HOT for us.
Quoting DeepSeaRising:


Are you channeling your inner WKC? :) Like I said...... But yes you did, threading the needle through waters that cold and still maintaining some tropical characteristics is quite the challenge. Has happened, what, once ever really before?
Twice, in terms of actually being a tropical storm when it made landfall, one in 1939 and Hurricane Nora, which made landfall as a tropical storm in 1997. California being affected by tropical cyclone remnants is actually not all that uncommon, happening about every six years. There is a correlation between El Nino years and California being affected by tropical cyclones. California was hit four times in 1997 by tropical cyclones, and 1997 was a strong El Nino year. It seems we have some kind of weird stealth El Nino this year, since the Pacific and Atlantic are behaving exactly as one would expect during an El Nino. I don't really understand the whole thing, since all the indicators are not there for an El Nino, but I'm also not convinced we know everything about how an El Nino behaves.
Quoting csmda:
It has been really, really hot here and I don't like it. Also, I am DONE with tourists. Seriously, GO HOME!! You can't be hot and deal with people who don't know where they're going. I know it's whiny... At least learn how to drive and don't be a jerk! I think they forget that some of us LIVE here. And why do people leave everything on the beach? How hard is it to pick up your stuff?

We need some rain. I can't believe a little north of us it rained today because it was sunny and HOT for us.
Hey, hey, hey. Any more whining and I'll send some of our Alabama gators down to live in your swamps. Then you'll really have something to complain about. :-)
Quoting 598. DeepSeaRising:

Yes, sigh TA, more waves, more dying waves, and no chance of a CV reaching the Gulf. Early September before we see our next named storm? Season shaping up in the under ten category. One of the slowest in history. Hate to say it but 7-3-0 may be in the ballpark. What do you see for September? SAL lessening and vertical instability on the increase is a given, but will it be enough to get some decent storms?

More of the same--SAL decreases, but dry air remains while the Atlantic continues to be dominated by upper-level sinking. Maybe a robust wave or two develops with the aid of a bypassing kelvin wave. Maybe some subtropical action? Hard to say how it'll turn out.

Quoting 599. wunderkidcayman:


You sure about that



Am I sure that shear has increased? Yes. Am I sure that the GFS ensembles show it remaining anomalously high over the next two weeks? Yes.
Quoting 586. sar2401:

I hope they hooked 'em up and dragged them off. Maybe people will get their stereos back.


I think he's only a suspect for now. My family is leery about it, but I'm only mildly cautious.
That was so much fun-- my best weather moment this year so far. I rarely get that excited.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

A Category 1 hurricane hit San Diego in early October 1858 (obviously not a lot of information is known about it), and a tropical storm hit San Pedro in late September 1939.
And (oops - Nora) Kathleen hit the California/Arizona border as a TS. There's almost no information about that supposed hurricane in 1858, but the Padres from the missions have stories about what sounds like a hurricane in 1784. Maybe there's some kind of return period happening there.
Quoting opal92nwf:
That was so much fun-- my best weather moment this year so far.
That's nice. What is it?
Quoting 591. DeepSeaRising:



A great way to get shot for pocket change. Car shopping is usually the first step to larger crimes.


Yeah, I'm hoping this doesn't escalate.
Quoting 613. sar2401:

That's nice. What is it?

Jan 28*
616. csmda
Quoting 613. sar2401:

That's nice. What is it?

Pretty sure it's snow. We didn't get any down here but we got a lot of ice and kids were sliding down the bridges in clothes baskets.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think he's only a suspect for now. My family is leery about it, but I'm only mildly cautious.
Every one I ever hooked up was a suspect. The convicted ones are usually in jail somewhere. Oh, you probably mean they came out, took a report, and that's the last you'll ever hear of it. That kind of suspect. :-)
Quoting opal92nwf:

Jan 29
Oh, I see now. That looked like a big coral fan and you were night diving underwater. :-)
Quoting 616. csmda:


Pretty sure it's snow. We didn't get any down here but we got a lot of ice and kids were sliding down the bridges in clothes baskets.

Probably all of what you see in that picture was a good sleet falling, but at times during that night, very very fine snow mixed in: almost like dust.
This year is very strange, El-Nino is looking less likely, yet WPAC and Atlantic are behaving as if it is. WPAC has storms going NE of the Philippines due to a blocking high pressure and Atlantic has high trade winds in the Caribbean and MDR is behaving as one would expect in an El-Nino year. Yet conditions seem to be headed away from a classic El-Nino year in many other ways. Your right Sar, much we don't understand, this is a very strange year indeed.
Quoting 617. sar2401:

Every one I ever hooked up was a suspect. The convicted ones are usually in jail somewhere. Oh, you probably mean they came out, took a report, and that's the last you'll ever hear of it. That kind of suspect. :-)


Yeah, lol.
The area devastated from the earthquake in China is suppose to get some heavy, heavy rain next. Landslides are a concern.


sar~ There was an article & a youtube a few days ago blaming the Nepal flooding on the govt. Poor urban drainage. Looked like Michigan the other day.
Quoting opal92nwf:

Probably all of what you see in that picture was a good sleet falling, but at times during that night, very very fine snow mixed in: almost like dust.
That was a good night. We had 3 inches of real snow on top of 1/4" of ice. It was a real winter wonderland. The only downside was it lasted for three freakin' days! I've never seen us below freezing for so long. First time Radar Dog refused to go for a walk. That whole snow thing really freaked him out.
Quoting 623. sar2401:

That was a good night. We had 3 inches of real snow on top of 1/4" of ice. It was a real winter wonderland. The only downside was it lasted for three freakin' days! I've never seen us below freezing for so long. First time Radar Dog refused to go for a walk. That whole snow thing really freaked him out.


Last year's Atlanta incident was a real wake up call. Two inches of snow as temps hover around freezing is a recipe for disaster on warm pavement and roadways. Yet that basic science was not understood in the least by officials leading to mayhem. Hard to fathom the South having to better prepare for more severe cold spells in a AGW climate, but that is what it is. Governor did a great job in taking accountability, and now the experts are far up the food chain in making calls in Georgia.
Quoting 623. sar2401:

That was a good night. We had 3 inches of real snow on top of 1/4" of ice. It was a real winter wonderland. The only downside was it lasted for three freakin' days! I've never seen us below freezing for so long. First time Radar Dog refused to go for a walk. That whole snow thing really freaked him out.

I took what I could get down near the coast. About a 10th of an inch of freezing rain, some extremely light, fine snow flurries mixed in, and sleet which dusted the ground. Still was unbelievable; last time this area got something like that was 1993.

Didn't get above something like 27 deg the 2nd day thanks partly to the cloud cover which apparently was somewhat unprecedented. The 3rd day barely got above freezing if I remember right. Went to class on monday: had classes off through Thurs. It would refreeze overnight, and that coupled with inexperienced drivers in the winter conditions made them decide to cancel.
Quoting Skyepony:
The area devastated from the earthquake in China is suppose to get some heavy, heavy rain next. Landslides are a concern.


sar~ There was an article & a youtube a few days ago blaming the Nepal flooding on the govt. Poor urban drainage. Looked like Michigan the other day.
I wouldn't say the government caused the flooding in Nepal but the constant civil war and fighting has made what was already a very small rescue and response infrastructure much worse. Most of the areas in the article have no drainage systems at all, so flooding and landslides are very common. As an example of what's happened with the government, Nepal used to pride itself on its force of rescue helicopters, even though the army air force numbers are small. The highest helicopter rescues ever made were done by a Nepal army air force pilot. Since the start of the civil war, all the very limited funds for new equipment has been funneled into attack helicopters, which are totally unsuited for rescue work. Nepal now has a grand total of three rescue helicopters left flying. Very sad for a country which, by 1995, was starting to make real progress in getting out of poverty.
I wish I had saved it. One of the forecast discussions for the Panhandle stated how the January 29th event had the potential to cause as much damage as a tropical cyclone. I believed it. We dodged a huge bullet. With so many leaning trees from hurricanes and almost all of them being evergreen (which I found to be a major weakness from an ice storm I experienced in Illinois), if we had gotten even a fourth an inch of ice, countless roads would have been blocked and a lot of property damage would have occured.

When it did happen, looking at some of the pine trees with a 10th of inch of ice, I could see that the tipping point was not to far off for some of them. The sand pines appeared more susceptible.
And NHC goes with keeping it 10/20%
Quoting 607. sar2401:

Twice, in terms of actually being a tropical storm when it made landfall, one in 1939 and Hurricane Nora, which made landfall as a tropical storm in 1997. California being affected by tropical cyclone remnants is actually not all that uncommon, happening about every six years. There is a correlation between El Nino years and California being affected by tropical cyclones. California was hit four times in 1997 by tropical cyclones, and 1997 was a strong El Nino year. It seems we have some kind of weird stealth El Nino this year, since the Pacific and Atlantic are behaving exactly as one would expect during an El Nino. I don't really understand the whole thing, since all the indicators are not there for an El Nino, but I'm also not convinced we know everything about how an El Nino behaves.

Indeed. Earlier today I posted about NOAA's reassessment of the 1918 El Nino which, as they described it, sounded very similar to what we're seeing right now, i.e. few indications off South America, and higher temps in the Central Pacific. Other data shows that both 1917 and 1918 were dud years for Atlantic hurricanes, with the exception of a single storm.
The complete lack of excitement in the Atlantic continues...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it begins to move slowly westward across the
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
hello everyone how is everybody? just wanted to say something about el-nino I don't think it matters how strong or weak or not having one at all, can cause dull winter, in fact we are in for a cold winter and as long as you have the storm track southeast this year, then we will be in business. last year was not nino year but with the southern jet and P.V. diving down it was a incredible winter for the southeast.
Southern Okaloosa County has actually had a wild weather year so far.

1. Extreme freeze in early January (17 degrees overnight, next day didn't get above 33, next night well into the 20's)
2. Late January winter storm event (ice on roads a major problem, extended sub-freezing temps not seen in years)
3. North Central Gulf Coast Historic Flash Flood Event %u2013 29-30 April 2014 (some neighborhoods completely inundated, heavy storms also brought horrendous overnight lightning storm)
4. Late March wind storm (caused widespread damage in southern Okaloosa county with few roofs near the coast being ripped apart, signs and fences blown down with tree damage)
Quoting 605. wxchaser97:

I've been rather busy lately. Of course there has been the flooding and cleanup, but I've just been overall busy. I did just recently get accepted to Central Michigan University, which has a good meteorology program and I can get at least $8,000 in scholarships per year. Already been up there once, like the campus, like the program, and really like one of the met professors.


Apply to Millersville and come and visit me, Isaac. :P Don't have to attend, of course, but you should visit. I'm trying to get Logan to do the same thing.

And I understand being busy about the clean-up. I'm just teasing you about lurking (though you have before the flood).
Quoting 625. DeepSeaRising:



Last year's Atlanta incident was a real wake up call. Two inches of snow as temps hover around freezing is a recipe for disaster on warm pavement and roadways. Yet that basic science was not understood in the least by officials leading to mayhem. Hard to fathom the South having to better prepare for more severe cold spells in a AGW climate, but that is what it is. Governor did a great job in taking accountability, and now the experts are far up the food chain in making calls in Georgia.


If I remember correctly, the governor did a good job the second time of taking responsibility. The first failure he ignored his responsibilities and blamed the NWS.
Source
Quoting 601. opal92nwf:


I would LOVE to see a Cat. 1 go into LA in the sense of seeing the reaction and effects.

Doubtful we'll ever see a full fledged hurricane ever in California given the SSTs. Those model tracks include sub hurricane remnants. But a categorical tropical storm maybe, especially if phased with a mid latitude system.
Shhhhsshh, like 13.5" 24 hour rain total is a big deal for Islip, NY minus a TC of any kind. So over these global warming extremists. Ice age baby!

Quoting 636. BayFog:


Doubtful we'll ever see a full fledged hurricane ever in California given the SSTs. Those model tracks include sub hurricane remnants. But a categorical tropical storm maybe, especially if phased with a mid latitude system.


1939 was close...
Quoting 637. GatorWX:

Shhhhsshh, like 13.5" 24 hour rain total is a big deal for Islip, NY minus a TC of any kind. So over these global warming extremists. Ice age baby!




Yeah, that Bush/Katrina picture, because major hurricanes never struck the US before 2005, post of the year material.



I was watching weather stuff in 1997, and Hurricane Linda barely missed getting caught by a trough, and as a Cat 5, with that warm ENSO, if it has recurved toward California it might have made it as a hurricane.

I was watching that one.
ECMWF 00z continues to show development in the tropical atlantic.
Hello all... I see the Atlantic is still kinda quiet. Of course that can always change in an instant.

Temps are awesome up here in the sub-arctic. Goes down to 50F at night... I love grilling outside in this weather, you don't sweat like crazy... Still can wear shorts and a short sleeve t-shirt too.
Quoting 641. Drakoen:

ECMWF 00z continues to show development in the tropical atlantic.


Also shows the modeled system moving northwest in the wake of a departing central Atlantic trough instead of recurving.

This pattern is a godsend. We just need storms to take advantage of it.
Quoting 596. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear is on the increase across the Caribbean once again, and the GFS ensemble mean shows it remaining anomalously high over the next two weeks.

Sigh.


GOOD!!
645. JRRP
here is all the GFS ensembles that shows development



(lol)


Quoting 645. JRRP:

here is all the GFS ensembles that shows development



(lol)



And that is what wave?
648. JRRP
Quoting Gearsts:
And that is what wave?

I suppose that is the yellow color wave
649. VR46L
Good Morning !

Looks like the EPAC is going to produce a Tango



Dance Dance !!!
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure area located midway between the Lesser Antilles
and the Cape Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and
showers. Some gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while it moves slowly westward across the central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Nothing new by NHC at 8 AM. This will be a slow process to develop if it does at all.
The same old story, nothing to shout about of any significant entity that may show signs of development in the tropical atlantic. One area though that could only be classified as an area of interest is an elongated area of disturbed weather east of 38W. Last night the area looked more organized with a low of 1012mb near 12N 38W. t he is really disorganized this morning and will take sometime to gel. It is the continued story of the dry air and SAL taking toll of this system. BY the look of things Cristobal is a long way off . It is already mid August and there is yet to have a major in the Atlantic for nearly two years. somehow the hurricane development in the atlantic is about to go into a slumber. it could be the end of the active period which started in 1995.
ex94 headed for the florida straits
something spinning at 5 west and 11 north!
655. SLU
Quoting 652. stoormfury:

The same old story, nothing to shout about of any significant entity that may show signs of development in the tropical atlantic. One area though that could only be classified as an area of interest is an elongated area of disturbed weather east of 38W. Last night the area looked more organized with a low of 1012mb near 12N 38W. t he is really disorganized this morning and will take sometime to gel. It is the continued story of the dry air and SAL taking toll of this system. BY the look of things Cristobal is a long way off . It is already mid August and there is yet to have a major in the Atlantic for nearly two years. somehow the hurricane development in the atlantic is about to go into a slumber. it could be the end of the active period which started in 1995.


If the CATL wave doesn't wind up within the next 4 days, 2014 will become the slowest season since 1992 in terms of the formation of the 3rd named storm.

need to watch invest 91E!!!

The question about if the active multidecade period since 1995 has ended earlier than expected is the most important one right now.I guess Dr Masters will discuss about it soon.
The last frame of RAMSDIS is showing that convection has started to build near what appears to be the apparent centre at 12N 39W. If this sign of organization continues through out the day then we could get 96L by evening
Quoting 653. islander101010:

ex94 headed for the florida straits


Been watching ex 94.
Off topic Sunday post, but as the Atlantic Ocean doesn't provide news the landmass of Iceland may fill in with a swarm of earthquakes near Bardarbunga Volcano (part of Vatnajokull) in the eastern part of the Island. Probably subglacial eruption so far, but not many news out yet.





Discussed at volcano cafe blog.
662. SLU
Quoting 658. Tropicsweatherpr:

The question about if the active multidecade period since 1995 has ended earlier than expected is the most important one right now.I guess Dr Masters will discuss about it soon.


If it hasn't ended, this lull in activity is very unusual. We have not seen this 2013-2014 pattern for 2 consecutive years without an El Nino since the active period began in 1995.
663. ryang
I still don't believe the active period has ended. As some have said, the lack of an El Nino may be the problem. Look at the last two years we had an El Nino and what happened the following year.

2006-2007
2009-2010
I saw a new spin at 25 west!! and 11 north maybe its ex invest 95L
On this date, August 17, 1969, Cat 5 Hurricane Camille made landfall along the Mississippi Coast.

The compact catastrophic hurricane had sustained winds of 175MPH, and gusts reportedly over 200MPH. The damage near the coast was so extreme, it was visible ... for many years .... after the hurricane! Little did we know that the damage and storm surge caused by Camille .. would be topped by Hurricane Katrina in 2005!

If lightening can strike the same place twice, so do hurricanes!



LOOK AT 10 WEST!!!! wow very big tropical wave!!!!
Quoting 659. stoormfury:

The last frame of RAMSDIS is showing that convection has started to build near what appears to be the apparent centre at 12N 39W. If this sign of organization continues through out the day then we could get 96L by evening
what is going on 29 west nice rain and t.storms going on there


You guys see this?
remnants of hurricane in east pacific


I am watching two tropical waves this morning
Good Morning.  Just noting that patience (on the Blog as well) and persistence (in terms of convective activity) is key when it comes waves and blobs. The convection on the mini-blob yesterday afternoon has apparently waned/dissipated overnight and now some of the convection in the broad  area of low pressure/wave has shifted south by about a hundred miles from yesterday.  In any event, Africa continues to prime wave-wise from the East but it is is going to take several waves, over the next two weeks, to help moisten the Central Atlantic MDR to help provide some moisture support for any waves that do break out of the ITCZ as they cross the Atlantic:
    
Flood in India on Sunday, 17 August, 2014 at 05:15 (05:15 AM) UTC.
Description
Over 200 villages in different districts of Uttar Pradesh were marooned on Saturday with the river Rapti flowing above danger mark. The rising level has left many other villages with seizable population in Bahraich, Gonda, Shrawasti and Lakhimpur districts quite vulnerable. Rising water level also posed threat to the Suhelva Wildlife Sanctuary which is famous for its Tiger, Leopard, Bear and Boar. Issuing flood alert for the entire area that fall along the river on its both sides, the Central Water Commission (CWC) on Saturday afternoon said, "The river Rapti in Balrampur district of UP is now flowing in high flood situation". The 'high flood situation' (HFS) is considered quite dangerous, specifically when water level in the river continues to rise. The CWC in its report said, " At 8 AM on Saturday, the river was flowing at a level of 104.79 meters with a rising trend. This is 0.17 meters above its danger level of 104.62 meters and 0.46 meters below its previous HFL of 105.25 meters recorded on September 11, 2000". The river Rapti falls in the Ganga basin and flows near Suhelva sanctuary. Meanwhile, the National Crisis Management Committee (NCMC) of the central government, under the chairmanship of the Cabinet Secretary Ajit Seth, took stock of the preparedness in the wake of floods in Nepal. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) teams have also been kept ready for rescue operations in Nepal, if required. "Three helicopters have been kept on the stand-by at Gorakhpur for this purpose", said an official statement of the ministry of water resources. It said, "Flood situation in UP, Bihar and recent heavy rains and cloudburst in Uttarakhand were also reviewed with the state governments"
Good morning from NW Florida. got a nice LOUD wake up call about an hour ago followed by a half inch of rain to make the streets nice and clean.. Have a great day everyone! Just took this shot from our balcony looking WSW (towards New Orleans?)
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I saw a new spin at 25 west!! and 11 north maybe its ex invest 95L

No former 95L is clearly visible just E of the CV Islands near 15N
Here is the eastern E-Pac and central E-Pac  ITCZ by comparison today; that is a healthy storm-friendly environment; it remains to be seen whether the Central Atlantic can pull off anything even remotely close to that by mid-September this year:


Volcano Activity in Iceland on Sunday, 17 August, 2014 at 04:14 (04:14 AM) UTC.
Description
Seismic activity in Bararbunga volcano has increased. A seismic swarm has been ongoing since 03AM this morning, and near continuous earthquakes have been occurring since then. The depths of earthquakes in the present swarm are in the upper crust and their magnitudes are mainly around 1.5; a few earthquakes are of magnitude greater than ML3. Long-term seismic and GPS data indicate that there is increased unrest in the northwestern region of Vatnajokull glacier, where Bararbunga is located: Over the last seven years seismic activity has been gradually increasing in Bar?arbunga and the fissure swarm north of the volcano. This activity dropped down at the Grímsvotn eruption in May 2011, but soon after, the activity started to gradually increase again and has now reached similar level of activity to that just before the Grímsvotn eruption. Earlier this year, in the middle of May 2014, there was a small swarm of over 200 events and now the present swarm has already generated at least 300 earthquakes. Since early June 2014, displacements at GPS stations around Vatnajokull (Hamarinn, Grímsfjall, Vonarskar and Dyngjuhals) show an increased upward movement and away from Bar?arbunga. Together, these two systems indicate magma movements in Bararbunga. Due to increased seismicity IMO has decided to turn volcano Bar?arbunga status to yellow. In case of a sub-aerial eruption, an ash plume of potential concerns for aviation will be generated.
676. ackee
The wave in the NHC label yellow is moving slow and I think when it reach 50 west and beyound will be intresting to see what happens
Quoting stoormfury:
The last frame of RAMSDIS is showing that convection has started to build near what appears to be the apparent centre at 12N 39W. If this sign of organization continues through out the day then we could get 96L by evening

Maybe
Finally today's shear chart; Central Atlantic is getting there but the lowest shear in recent days, as well as the highest SST's over the past month, is in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and around Florida/Florida straights.  Watch out in a few weeks if a wave/TD/struggling TS is able to make it to any of these regions and shear conditions look like this:
Video of the flooding in India taking out a bridge. Not sure if everyone that made a last second dart to cross that made it across.

Good Morning,

The 00z Euro Ensembles are very interesting and has something for all about everyone..one scenario I saw that would have this blog completely bonkers than it already is it has a hurricane hitting Florida and a tropical storm simultaneously hitting LA and traversing back west along TX and then going inland to Mexico..

the fact that that some of it members are now showing TC activity along with the operational is a strong signal we will see a good CV tracker but then again the next run could drop it altogether..so until 2pm enjoy the thrill..

683. SLU
Quoting 663. ryang:

I still don't believe the active period has ended. As some have said, the lack of an El Nino may be the problem. Look at the last two years we had an El Nino and what happened the following year.

2006-2007
2009-2010


If we do get an El Nino this year but 2015 faces the same dry air and lack of moisture problem then the experts will have to find another excuse ....
Ukmet

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 37.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.08.2014 12.7N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2014 14.0N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.7N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.8N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 17.7N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 17.9N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 18.6N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 19.8N 64.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 21.3N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.9N 96.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.08.2014 11.0N 98.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 22.08.2014 11.9N 101.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 13.0N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
685. SLU
Quoting 682. ncstorm:

Good Morning,

The 00z Euro Ensembles are very interesting and has something for all about everyone..one scenario I saw that would have this blog completely bonkers than it already is it has a hurricane hitting Florida and a tropical storm simultaneously hitting LA and traversing back west along TX and then going inland to Mexico..

the fact that that some of it members are now showing TC activity along with the operational is a strong signal we will see a good CV tracker but then again the next run could drop it altogether..so until 2pm enjoy the thrill..




Link?
Quoting 684. ncstorm:

Ukmet

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 37.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.08.2014 12.7N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2014 14.0N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.7N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.8N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 17.7N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 17.9N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 18.6N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 19.8N 64.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 21.3N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.9N 96.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.08.2014 11.0N 98.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 22.08.2014 11.9N 101.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 13.0N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
The Twave at 39w?
A mild El Nino year, or even a neutral year, might not be the best analog to "declare" the end of the active multi-decadal signal for the Atlantic.  However, if we have a few La Nina years, and the numbers remain low it could signal the beginning of a quieter era (but not potentially dangerous hurricanes).

What fascinates me the most about the last two Atlantic seasons is the large numbers of tropical storms and relative lack of majors.  If we get a third season where the "predicted" majors do not materialize, then the research scientists are going to have to re-model, write some papers, and postulate the "why" of this drop for three years in a row due to anomalous dry-stable air and faster trades in the Central Atlantic the past few seasons. I certainly don't have the answer and it will take several decades to figure out if climate change will ultimately have an impact on the Atlantic season (which Klotzbach and Gray currently reject).  But if we continue to see the current issues over the next few seasons (proliferation of struggling tropical storms as opposed to less hurricanes but more intense ones as some have postulated) , this might be a good place to start.  
Quoting 685. SLU:



Link?


can't post due to Weatherbell..sorry..
GEOS-5 is back to a storm riding up Baja into Southern CA, in ~a week..

690. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:
Ukmet

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.3N 37.9W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 19.08.2014 12.7N 37.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2014 14.0N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2014 15.7N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2014 16.8N 47.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2014 17.7N 52.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2014 17.9N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2014 18.6N 60.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2014 19.8N 64.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 21.3N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY



NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.9N 96.8W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 22.08.2014 11.0N 98.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 22.08.2014 11.9N 101.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2014 13.0N 103.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


For the end of the month it has a second weaker system coming up Baja & a monster inverted trough for FL..

As noted by another Blogger about a week ago, the last time we had a major hurricane go through the Caribbean was Dean in 2007; so 6 years and counting so far without a major in the Caribbean.  It used to be the norm there pretty frequently for a period of time in the past; not that this is a bad thing but just noting that something appears to be going on that is suppressing majors (with the exception of a few years with fish majors in the Central Atlantic that did not threaten land) in recent seasons.

Conversely, we have had some monster storms in the Pacific Basin the past several seasons.  Part of that would be consistent with the recognized inverse relationship between the E-Pac - Atlantic that is Enso based but I am starting to wonder if a broader based issue is at play that we do not understand yet..............................I'll leave that up to the Pro Mets to figure out. 
later all..

06z Navgem..last frame
HOUSTON: ...er, 2014, we see your AMO is in the O-F-F position, over?

695. SLU
Quoting 692. weathermanwannabe:

As noted by another Blogger about a week ago, the last time we had a major hurricane go through the Caribbean was Dean in 2007; so 6 years and counting so far without a major in the Caribbean.  It used to be the norm there pretty frequently for a period of time in the past; not that this is a bad thing but just noting that something appears to be going on that is suppressing majors (with the exception of a few years with fish majors in the Central Atlantic that did not threaten land) in recent seasons.


Dean entered the Caribbean on this very day in 2007.

ASCAT of the wave ~12N 28W
I MISS THIS TYPE OF STORM.
698. JRRP
Quoting 696. Skyepony:

ASCAT of the wave ~12N 28W

Quoting 669. hurricanes2018:



I am watching two tropical waves this morning


Quoting 679. Skyepony:

Video of the flooding in India taking out a bridge. Not sure if everyone that made a last second dart to cross that made it across.




Doesn't look like they cleared it. Very unfortunate.
Quoting 678. weathermanwannabe:

Finally today's shear chart; Central Atlantic is getting there but the lowest shear in recent days, as well as the highest SST's over the past month, is in the Western Caribbean, Gulf, and around Florida/Florida straights.  Watch out in a few weeks if a wave/TD/struggling TS is able to make it to any of these regions and shear conditions look like this:



Remnants of ex 94L appear to be headed toward Straits of Florida.


.....nuttin'


Last week of August might get interesting rainfall wise.....................................


what is all that rain in the GOM
Quoting 700. HaoleboySurfEC:



Doesn't look like they cleared it. Very unfortunate.

Just north of there is Nepal where over 240 have died in the last 2 weeks in the flooding. Now it's coming on down into India like that. It's getting to be real unfortunate.
I watch 30 west!!
711. beell
No wave at 28-30W per this morning's TWD.


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N24W TO 22N23W MOVING W AT 5 KT.
THE WAVE HAS MOVED WEST OF A LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
FOCUSED ON A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR
15N20W. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB GLOBAL MODEL
INDICATED TROUGHING THAT HAS LARGELY MOVED WEST OF THE LOW AND
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 25W-29W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N38W TO 20N40W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.
A 1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AT THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N38W. IN ADDITION...WEAK
AND BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING IS NOTED ON GLOBAL MODEL DATA BETWEEN
30W-50W WITH 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY FOCUSED IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-
14N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N71W TO 21N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE BETWEEN 65W-74W WITH
A 850 MB RELATIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE AXIS FOCUSED NEAR 13N71W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 69W-72W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 19N16W TO
13N24W TO 13N34W TO 07N49W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 07N49W TO 06N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION
IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 11W-18W...AND FROM 07N-10N
BETWEEN 29W-33W.


I think at 2:00 our little yellow X will go from 10-20 to 0% and 0% I don't even see anything there worth mentioning
Quoting 692. weathermanwannabe:

As noted by another Blogger about a week ago, the last time we had a major hurricane go through the Caribbean was Dean in 2007; so 6 years and counting so far without a major in the Caribbean.  It used to be the norm there pretty frequently for a period of time in the past; not that this is a bad thing but just noting that something appears to be going on that is suppressing majors (with the exception of a few years with fish majors in the Central Atlantic that did not threaten land) in recent seasons.

Conversely, we have had some monster storms in the Pacific Basin the past several seasons.  Part of that would be consistent with the recognized inverse relationship between the E-Pac - Atlantic that is Enso based but I am starting to wonder if a broader based issue is at play that we do not understand yet..............................I'll leave that up to the Pro Mets to figure out. 
I agree there has not been any CV storm in the Caribbean since Dean but there has been a major hurricane since Dean in the Caribbean. Remember Paloma and Gustav ? Both major hurricanes in the Caribbean.
we have a yellow x at 10% right now with no rain and t.storms with this tropical wave or tropical low!!
its right here
It seems like the years where tropical storm formation is lacking in the CV or MDR of the Atlantic or Caribbean basin, we get something form in our own backyard.

Keep an eye on the GOM and W Atlantic ... for the rest of the 2014 hurricane season. Our next storm threat might be homegrown!
Quoting 695. SLU:



Dean entered the Caribbean on this very day in 2007.




Morning All!

What a beast he turned out to be. I remember that storm went a long time as a strengthening hurricane with a cloud filled eye. It was either Dean or Felix, pretty sure it was Dean though. First time I had ever witnessed that.
mdr region seems somewhat clogged get the plunger
719. beell
Quoting 715. hurricanes2018:

its right here


Failure to recognize the monsoon trough and its interaction with passing t-waves can lead to confusion as to what is a wave and what are little blobs of transient vorticity circulating around the larger monsoon circulation.

Hey, maybe one of the vorts will come together.
Quoting 708. hurricanes2018:



what is all that rain in the GOM


I should have looked at that all better. Here is the same but different perspective. That in the GOM is what is coming up on 30W now. That over FL is the wave about to come off Africa now. According to this they will be too close all the way across, disrupting each other. One blobs up, then the other. Land looked somewhat disruptive too. Rain across the islands PR, Hispaniola, Cuba into SFL..

722. JRRP
Michael Ventrice %u200F@MJVentrice 48 min
Expect probabilities to increase w/ Atlantic MDR invest. EC ENS shows increased risk for Southeastern U.S. landfall
ASCAT.. I think the yellow X is that at ~12N 40W, so sort of miss but a look at the west side of it.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I agree there has not been any CV storm in the Caribbean since Dean but there has been a major hurricane since Dean in the Caribbean. Remember Paloma and Gustav ? Both major hurricanes in the Caribbean.

Anybody remember Hurricane Rina back in 2011
Or Hurricane Sandy in 2012
Both were major Hurricanes in the Caribbean
Quoting 713. stormwatcherCI:

I agree there has not been any CV storm in the Caribbean since Dean but there has been a major hurricane since Dean in the Caribbean. Remember Paloma and Gustav ? Both major hurricanes in the Caribbean.
Fairly recent was Hurricane Rina..A major with 115 mph winds..2011 Hurricane season was a busy one, but mostly ocean storms.

First system formed June 28, 2011
Last system dissipated November 11, 2011
Strongest storm Ophelia – 940 mbar (27.77 inHg), 140 mph (220 km/h)




Total depressions 20
Total storms 19
Hurricanes 7
Major hurricanes (Cat. 3+) 4
Total fatalities 100 direct, 14 indirect
Total damage ≥ $18.585 billion (2011 USD)




From NOAA 8/7/14

(for large image, increase size or place face closer to screen)



The primary factors influencing the increased chance of a below-normal season are:

Overall atmospheric conditions are not favorable for storm development. This includes strong vertical wind shear, a weaker West African monsoon, and the combination of increased atmospheric stability and sinking motion. These conditions mean fewer tropical systems are spawned off the African coast, and those that do form are less likely to become hurricanes. These conditions are stronger than originally predicted in May and are expected to last mid-August through October, the peak months of the hurricane season;

Overall oceanic conditions are not favorable for storm development. This includes below-average temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, which are exceptionally cool relative to the remainder of the global Tropics. This cooling is even stronger than models predicted in May and is expected to persist through the hurricane season; and

El Niño is still likely to develop and to suppress storm development by increasing vertical wind shear, stability and sinking motion in the atmosphere.


Link
727. beell
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

Anybody remember Hurricane Rina back in 2011
Or Hurricane Sandy in 2012
Both were major Hurricanes in the Caribbean


And to add to 2008
Hurricane Omar was a major Hurricane in the Caribbean
730. SLU
Quoting 719. beell:



Failure to recognize the monsoon trough and its interaction with passing t-waves can lead to confusion as to what is a wave and what are little blobs of transient vorticity circulating around the larger monsoon circulation.

Hey, maybe one of the vorts will come together.


The models are just as confused. The GFS develops a low at the eastern end of the trough, the EURO somewhere in the middle and the UKMET at the western end. Hence the significant track and timing differences.

So far the western end seems to be the most dominant.

Quoting SLU:


The models are just as confused. The GFS develops a low at the eastern end of the trough, the EURO somewhere in the middle and the UKMET at the western end. Hence the significant track and timing differences.

So far the western end seems to be the most dominant.


W side is the dominant side
IMHO of course
I am in total agreement with the mass of confusion from 50W to the African coast south of 12N. it is very difficult to pinpoint what areas are primed to take the lead in establishing some form of cyclogenesis. There is quite a bit of cyclonic turning in this large area with a low near 12n 39w and another area to the east near 28W where it is evident that low level clouds are streaming to the area and also to the wave exiting the African coast. 94L is still that exposed swirl which is moving slightly south of west towards the gyre of cloudiness I the monsoonal trough. whatever happens from this area will take a few days to evolve/
Quoting 709. Skyepony:


Just north of there is Nepal where over 240 have died in the last 2 weeks in the flooding. Now it's coming on down into India like that. It's getting to be real unfortunate.


My neighbors are from Nepal. They have family there. In fact their little boy goes back and forth between here and the grandparents because they want him to know the culture and language. We were talking yesterday and I asked him about the floods. He seemed surprised. He said they are real bad (and late) this year.

He knows I surf so we started talking about global weather, how strange it has all been and that is why my surfboards are collecting dust in the garage this summer. I also said get ready for the possibility of another weird fall/winter (we had hellish ice storms last year in SC).

He said how do you know about this stuff. I just said Skyepony... no just kidding, but I have been lurking here for probably close to 10 years and you always have the most interesting and informative posts. So thanks.
Quoting 720. wunderkidcayman:




Oh boy, that steering. We all better watch what we wish for.
735. beell
Quoting 730. SLU:



The models are just as confused. The GFS develops a low at the eastern end of the trough, the EURO somewhere in the middle and the UKMET at the western end. Hence the significant track and timing differences.

So far the western end seems to be the most dominant.




Yes they are! Resolution on a global model can't do much with a "vort-of-the moment".
:)
Quoting beell:


Failure to recognize the monsoon trough and its interaction with passing t-waves can lead to confusion as to what is a wave and what are little blobs of transient vorticity circulating around the larger monsoon circulation.

Hey, maybe one of the vorts will come together.
Geez...are you doing that science stuff again? Those vorts will come together into a big...thing...of some kind.
lots of red here if we get a tropical storm here..we need to watch it
Quoting 729. Grothar:



Ex 94L
739. IDTH
Waiting for some consistency from the models. But if the euro continues to hint at development then It is usually very likely that development will occur but I will have to see some consistency. It only takes one to be a devastating season and with how warm the waters are including the lowering shear in the western Atlantic and gulf of mexico I can't see a storm not being able to take advantage of that environment this season, especially with how strong Arthur and Bertha (it was strong but it's appearance was hindered by a trough very close to the storm) was when they were in that environment.
740. JRRP
741. beell
i think we had a transient breakthrough of sorts this morning, sar. My work here is done.
;)
Quoting 738. HaoleboySurfEC:


Ex 94L



Any chance?
743. beell
Quoting 731. wunderkidcayman:


W side is the dominant side
IMHO of course


It does have the wave imposed on/near the western end of the monsoon trough-but if it acts like a wave, it will continue west and may lose the monsoon enhancement. Maybe not.
anything that forms where the UkMet is suggesting , will go as straight as an arrow through the cental islands and into the central Caribbean. if anything it will not be a Dean.
Quoting 717. ProgressivePulse:



Morning All!

What a beast he turned out to be. I remember that storm went a long time as a strengthening hurricane with a cloud filled eye. It was either Dean or Felix, pretty sure it was Dean though. First time I had ever witnessed that.

Felix was awesome. Went through RI almost as soon as the wave entered the Carib Basin

Felix Sept. 2, 2007
Here's the wiki summary: Felix formed from a tropical wave on August 31, passing through the southern Windward Islands on September 1 before strengthening to attain hurricane status. A day later it rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane, and early on September 3 it was upgraded to Category 5 status; by 2100 UTC, the hurricane was downgraded to Category 4 status, but was upgraded to a Category 5 hurricane for a second time by the morning of September 4.
Wiki Link
Meteorological history for it being a weak CV wave until it organized into a TD around the Leeward Islands. It made landfall on the Mosquito Coast of Nicaragua and killed nearly 150 people. And of course the name was retired.
invest 91E starting to looking like a T.D SOON
Post via twitter @Michael Ventrice

Expect probabilities to increase w/ Atlantic MDR invest. EC ENS shows increased risk for Southeastern U.S. landfall.

Quoting beell:
i think we had a transient breakthrough of sorts this morning, sar. My work here is done.
;)
Yes, you may now take a well deserved rest from your labors...until the next vort rears its ugly head. :-)
Quoting 719. beell:



Failure to recognize the monsoon trough and its interaction with passing t-waves can lead to confusion as to what is a wave and what are little blobs of transient vorticity circulating around the larger monsoon circulation.

Hey, maybe one of the vorts will come together.

I'm failing to recognize the monsoon trough since the center of the low is at sea. Looks like just a broad low pressure area along the ITCZ. But what do I know?
Inbound boomer.


intense felix in the carib. that was the one recon had a close call.
752. JRRP
Quoting hurricane23:
Post via twitter @Michael Ventrice

Expect probabilities to increase w/ Atlantic MDR invest. EC ENS shows increased risk for Southeastern U.S. landfall.


looks like exactly the post 722
Of course wind shear is way too high in the Carib Basin now for another Felix in these conditions.

The Florida Straits and GOM are another story entirely.

Dare I say 'tinderbox?'
Quoting 747. hurricane23:

Post via twitter @Michael Ventrice

Expect probabilities to increase w/ Atlantic MDR invest. EC ENS shows increased risk for Southeastern U.S. landfall.



If you believe what he posted September should be pretty active.
Quoting 742. saltydog1327:




Any chance?


Most of the vets on here seem to think unlikely. I have to respect their knowledge and agree.

I just like an underdog.

It has somehow survived this far and for the first time it will approach decent conditions for intensification. So I think it is worth watching. No models make anything of it
Quoting 687. weathermanwannabe:

A mild El Nino year, or even a neutral year, might not be the best analog to "declare" the end of the active multi-decadal signal for the Atlantic.  However, if we have a few La Nina years, and the numbers remain low it could signal the beginning of a quieter era (but not potentially dangerous hurricanes).

What fascinates me the most about the last two Atlantic seasons is the large numbers of tropical storms and relative lack of majors.  If we get a third season where the "predicted" majors do not materialize, then the research scientists are going to have to re-model, write some papers, and postulate the "why" of this drop for three years in a row due to anomalous dry-stable air and faster trades in the Central Atlantic the past few seasons. I certainly don't have the answer and it will take several decades to figure out if climate change will ultimately have an impact on the Atlantic season (which Klotzbach and Gray currently reject).  But if we continue to see the current issues over the next few seasons (proliferation of struggling tropical storms as opposed to less hurricanes but more intense ones as some have postulated) , this might be a good place to start.  


IMHO, it's not hard to figure out what is causing the issues for the Atlantic & it comes down to the MEI (or ENSO index, pic your favorite). The lack of an El Nino does a number of things not just to the Atlantic, but to the global tropics in general. Through sunlight & atmospheric driven processes, the displacement of water out of the western Pacific & the subsequent upwelling leads to a redistribution of heat into the atmosphere, thus it's also why there is a tendency for the global ACE index to spike in the presence of El Ninos, as was the case during the 1990s, & most recently in 2006, & then fall when La Nina returns....


The effects of ENSO on the Atlantic are profound throughout a wide range of timescales, and it's also evident that the AMO index which generally modulates Atlantic Hurricane activity, lags ENSO & MEI, especially over a long period of time. Comparing the two phenomena, it's obvious this relationship exists. The extension of the Pacific jet causes the Aleutian low to intensify and shift east, as the left exit region of the jet where air diverges towards the poles also shifts eastward as result of El Nino through increased SSTs that finally become supportive of significant latent processes, thus promoting intraseasonal eastward shifts of the MJO, and hence the aforementioned Pacific Jet shits via increases in poleward propagating upper level divergence from tropical convection, leading to a relative bottleneck of mass in the Pacific jet that must be compensated for by increases in jet speed. This increase in Atmospheric Angular Momentum also forces a trough on the lee side of the Appalachians, giving aid to the invigorated subtropical jet over the western hemisphere, commonplace in El Nino.

Warm AMO DJF 500mb N hem pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb N hem pattern


MEI vs AMO index 1950-present (Note how closely the AMO follows the MEI, thus should you be surprised, given recent downturns of the AMO, that this was eventually going to transpire w/ the MEI crash that occurred in the late 2000s?)


Thus, when you go w/o El Nino, or experience a period with scant El Ninos for that matter, the AMO is @ some pt bound to fall, especially considering that w/o the El Nino in the northern hemisphere winter to erode warmth in the subtropical Atlantic, over time, heat will begin to accumulate in the subtropics, as is the case over the last few years. This accumulation of heat in the subtropical Atlantic stretches & weakens the Hadley Cell over the Atlantic by focusing upward motion over a broader area, instead of in the deep tropics, thus air will have a greater tendency to sink. This sinking air also leads to drying & w/ drying out of the atmosphere and then comes a lack of instability (as is currently the case) as drier parcels of air rising through the atmospheric column will cool faster than those which are saturated, and this is simply due to the fact that the release of latent heat keeps the air warmer than it otherwise would have been, leading to taller & longer-lived thunderstorms & mesoscale convective complexes, which thereby induce lowering pressures & have the capability to take more advantage of favorable intraseasonal states imparted by a variety of Equatorial Wave types & even mid-latitude Rossby Waves. In addition, I want to mention that the prominence of dry air in the Atlantic is not due to the Saharan Air Layer. Although the portion of the atmosphere @ which the SAL occupies & significantly affects is drier than normal...

850 mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



The dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere doesn't even compare to how dry the atmosphere is in the upper portions of the troposphere, which implies that the SAL that dominates primarily below 500mb is not to blame for the lack of instability & dry air throughout the tropical Atlantic this season, giving credence to influence from the MEI & ENSO index...
300mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014


Quoting 755. HaoleboySurfEC:



Most of the vets on here seem to think unlikely. I have to respect their knowledge and agree.

I just like an underdog.

It has somehow survived this far and for the first time it will approach decent conditions for intensification. So I think it is worth watching. No models make anything of it

I wouldn't rule it out.
759. beell
Quoting 749. BayFog:


I'm failing to recognize the monsoon trough since the center of the low is at sea. Looks like just a broad low pressure area along the ITCZ. But what do I know?


You might be able to see it if you check out the GOES RGB loop and focus on the low-cloud: the dingy, yellowish ones on on either side of 10N. Northeasterly trades to the north, and west or southwest monsoon winds to the south.


click for loop

Quoting 757. Webberweather53:



IMHO, it's not hard to figure out what is causing the issues for the Atlantic & it comes down to the MEI (or ENSO index, pic your favorite). The lack of an El Nino does a number of things not just to the Atlantic, but to the global tropics in general. Through sunlight & atmospheric driven processes, the displacement of water out of the western Pacific & the subsequent upwelling leads to a redistribution of heat into the atmosphere, thus it's also why there is a tendency for the global ACE index to spike in the presence of El Ninos, as was the case during the 1990s, & most recently in 2006, & then fall when La Nina returns....


The effects of ENSO on the Atlantic are profound throughout a wide range of timescales, and it's also evident that the AMO index which generally modulates Atlantic Hurricane activity, lags ENSO & MEI, especially over a long period of time. Comparing the two phenomena, it's obvious this relationship exists. The extension of the Pacific jet causes the Aleutian low to intensify and shift east, as the left exit region of the jet where air diverges towards the poles also shifts eastward as result of El Nino through increased SSTs that finally become supportive of significant latent processes, thus promoting intraseasonal eastward shifts of the MJO, and hence the aforementioned Pacific Jet shits via increases in poleward propagating upper level divergence from tropical convection, leading to a relative bottleneck of mass in the Pacific jet that must be compensated for by increases in jet speed. This increase in Atmospheric Angular Momentum also forces a trough on the lee side of the Appalachians, giving aid to the invigorated subtropical jet over the western hemisphere, commonplace in El Nino.

Warm AMO DJF 500mb N hem pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb N hem pattern


MEI vs AMO index 1950-present (Note how closely the AMO follows the MEI, thus should you be surprised, given recent downturns of the AMO, that this was eventually going to transpire w/ the MEI crash that occurred in the late 2000s?)


Thus, when you go w/o El Nino, or experience a period with scant El Ninos for that matter, the AMO is @ some pt bound to fall, especially considering that w/o the El Nino in the northern hemisphere winter to erode warmth in the subtropical Atlantic, over time, heat will begin to accumulate in the subtropics, as is the case over the last few years. This accumulation of heat in the subtropical Atlantic stretches & weakens the Hadley Cell over the Atlantic by focusing upward motion over a broader area, instead of in the deep tropics, thus air will have a greater tendency to sink. This sinking air also leads to drying & w/ drying out of the atmosphere and then comes a lack of instability (as is currently the case) as drier parcels of air rising through the atmospheric column will cool faster than those which are saturated, and this is simply due to the fact that the release of latent heat keeps the air warmer than it otherwise would have been, leading to taller & longer-lived thunderstorms & mesoscale convective complexes, which thereby induce lowering pressures & have the capability to take more advantage of favorable intraseasonal states imparted by a variety of Equatorial Wave types & even mid-latitude Rossby Waves. In addition, I want to mention that the prominence of dry air in the Atlantic is not due to the Saharan Air Layer. Although the portion of the atmosphere @ which the SAL occupies & significantly affects is drier than normal...

850 mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



The dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere doesn't even compare to how dry the atmosphere is in the upper portions of the troposphere, which implies that the SAL that dominates primarily below 500mb is not to blame for the lack of instability & dry air throughout the tropical Atlantic this season, giving credence to influence from the MEI & ENSO index...
300mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014





That is a great post that explains a lot.

Note=Can you post it at S2K?
Quoting 760. hydrus:



Monstrous chubasco (MCC} starting to move up the Gulf of California. Let's see of it survives to the next nocturnal max.
Quoting 761. Tropicsweatherpr:



That is a great post that explains a lot.

Note=Can you post it at S2K?

In short, the Atlantic is downwind of the enhanced and re-located convection over the Pacific in an El Nino.
Quoting 761. Tropicsweatherpr:



That is a great post that explains a lot.

Note=Can you post it at S2K?

Sure, no problem...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Great post. Thank you.

Quoting 757. Webberweather53:



IMHO, it's not hard to figure out what is causing the issues for the Atlantic & it comes down to the MEI (or ENSO index, pic your favorite). The lack of an El Nino does a number of things not just to the Atlantic, but to the global tropics in general. Through sunlight & atmospheric driven processes, the displacement of water out of the western Pacific & the subsequent upwelling leads to a redistribution of heat into the atmosphere, thus it's also why there is a tendency for the global ACE index to spike in the presence of El Ninos, as was the case during the 1990s, & most recently in 2006, & then fall when La Nina returns....


The effects of ENSO on the Atlantic are profound throughout a wide range of timescales, and it's also evident that the AMO index which generally modulates Atlantic Hurricane activity, lags ENSO & MEI, especially over a long period of time. Comparing the two phenomena, it's obvious this relationship exists. The extension of the Pacific jet causes the Aleutian low to intensify and shift east, as the left exit region of the jet where air diverges towards the poles also shifts eastward as result of El Nino through increased SSTs that finally become supportive of significant latent processes, thus promoting intraseasonal eastward shifts of the MJO, and hence the aforementioned Pacific Jet shits via increases in poleward propagating upper level divergence from tropical convection, leading to a relative bottleneck of mass in the Pacific jet that must be compensated for by increases in jet speed. This increase in Atmospheric Angular Momentum also forces a trough on the lee side of the Appalachians, giving aid to the invigorated subtropical jet over the western hemisphere, commonplace in El Nino.

Warm AMO DJF 500mb N hem pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb N hem pattern


MEI vs AMO index 1950-present (Note how closely the AMO follows the MEI, thus should you be surprised, given recent downturns of the AMO, that this was eventually going to transpire w/ the MEI crash that occurred in the late 2000s?)


Thus, when you go w/o El Nino, or experience a period with scant El Ninos for that matter, the AMO is @ some pt bound to fall, especially considering that w/o the El Nino in the northern hemisphere winter to erode warmth in the subtropical Atlantic, over time, heat will begin to accumulate in the subtropics, as is the case over the last few years. This accumulation of heat in the subtropical Atlantic stretches & weakens the Hadley Cell over the Atlantic by focusing upward motion over a broader area, instead of in the deep tropics, thus air will have a greater tendency to sink. This sinking air also leads to drying & w/ drying out of the atmosphere and then comes a lack of instability (as is currently the case) as drier parcels of air rising through the atmospheric column will cool faster than those which are saturated, and this is simply due to the fact that the release of latent heat keeps the air warmer than it otherwise would have been, leading to taller & longer-lived thunderstorms & mesoscale convective complexes, which thereby induce lowering pressures & have the capability to take more advantage of favorable intraseasonal states imparted by a variety of Equatorial Wave types & even mid-latitude Rossby Waves. In addition, I want to mention that the prominence of dry air in the Atlantic is not due to the Saharan Air Layer. Although the portion of the atmosphere @ which the SAL occupies & significantly affects is drier than normal...

850 mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



The dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere doesn't even compare to how dry the atmosphere is in the upper portions of the troposphere, which implies that the SAL that dominates primarily below 500mb is not to blame for the lack of instability & dry air throughout the tropical Atlantic this season, giving credence to influence from the MEI & ENSO index...
300mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



a very educational post. is this the real cause for the dry sinking air. This might be all theoretical, but is it the real reason why there is this dormancy the last 3 years? I have my doubts.
Quoting 759. beell:



You might be able to see it if you check out the GOES RGB loop and focus on the low-cloud: the dingy, yellowish ones on on either side of 10N. Northeasterly trades to the north, and west or southwest monsoon winds to the south.


click for loop



The graphic merely shows the change of wind direction resulting from the Coriolis Effect as southern hemisphere trades cross the equator. That's commonplace across the Pacific ITCZ. My understanding of the difference between the ITCZ and the monsoon trough is that the monsoon trough is that portion of the ITCZ that is subordinate to a monsoon system, i.e. the thermal low pressure that seasonally develops over various land masses across the globe. In this instance, perhaps a more detailed chart would show that the low over the ocean off Cape Verde is subordinate to the one over the Sahel.
Quoting 757. Webberweather53:



IMHO, it's not hard to figure out what is causing the issues for the Atlantic & it comes down to the MEI (or ENSO index, pic your favorite). The lack of an El Nino does a number of things not just to the Atlantic, but to the global tropics in general. Through sunlight & atmospheric driven processes, the displacement of water out of the western Pacific & the subsequent upwelling leads to a redistribution of heat into the atmosphere, thus it's also why there is a tendency for the global ACE index to spike in the presence of El Ninos, as was the case during the 1990s, & most recently in 2006, & then fall when La Nina returns....


The effects of ENSO on the Atlantic are profound throughout a wide range of timescales, and it's also evident that the AMO index which generally modulates Atlantic Hurricane activity, lags ENSO & MEI, especially over a long period of time. Comparing the two phenomena, it's obvious this relationship exists. The extension of the Pacific jet causes the Aleutian low to intensify and shift east, as the left exit region of the jet where air diverges towards the poles also shifts eastward as result of El Nino through increased SSTs that finally become supportive of significant latent processes, thus promoting intraseasonal eastward shifts of the MJO, and hence the aforementioned Pacific Jet shits via increases in poleward propagating upper level divergence from tropical convection, leading to a relative bottleneck of mass in the Pacific jet that must be compensated for by increases in jet speed. This increase in Atmospheric Angular Momentum also forces a trough on the lee side of the Appalachians, giving aid to the invigorated subtropical jet over the western hemisphere, commonplace in El Nino.

Warm AMO DJF 500mb N hem pattern


All El Ninos since 1950 DJF 500mb N hem pattern


MEI vs AMO index 1950-present (Note how closely the AMO follows the MEI, thus should you be surprised, given recent downturns of the AMO, that this was eventually going to transpire w/ the MEI crash that occurred in the late 2000s?)


Thus, when you go w/o El Nino, or experience a period with scant El Ninos for that matter, the AMO is @ some pt bound to fall, especially considering that w/o the El Nino in the northern hemisphere winter to erode warmth in the subtropical Atlantic, over time, heat will begin to accumulate in the subtropics, as is the case over the last few years. This accumulation of heat in the subtropical Atlantic stretches & weakens the Hadley Cell over the Atlantic by focusing upward motion over a broader area, instead of in the deep tropics, thus air will have a greater tendency to sink. This sinking air also leads to drying & w/ drying out of the atmosphere and then comes a lack of instability (as is currently the case) as drier parcels of air rising through the atmospheric column will cool faster than those which are saturated, and this is simply due to the fact that the release of latent heat keeps the air warmer than it otherwise would have been, leading to taller & longer-lived thunderstorms & mesoscale convective complexes, which thereby induce lowering pressures & have the capability to take more advantage of favorable intraseasonal states imparted by a variety of Equatorial Wave types & even mid-latitude Rossby Waves. In addition, I want to mention that the prominence of dry air in the Atlantic is not due to the Saharan Air Layer. Although the portion of the atmosphere @ which the SAL occupies & significantly affects is drier than normal...

850 mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



The dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere doesn't even compare to how dry the atmosphere is in the upper portions of the troposphere, which implies that the SAL that dominates primarily below 500mb is not to blame for the lack of instability & dry air throughout the tropical Atlantic this season, giving credence to influence from the MEI & ENSO index...
300mb relative humidity deep tropical Atlantic June-July 2014



This is a very well written comment. Thank you for taking time to write it. I have marked in bold my favorite parts..:)
Quoting 728. wunderkidcayman:



And to add to 2008
Hurricane Omar was a major Hurricane in the Caribbean



in the NE Caribbean "Dead Zone".... ;-)