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Little change to TD 7; 93L may develop off the coast of Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on August 10, 2012

Tropical Depression Seven continues westward across the central tropical Atlantic with little change in appearance. Looking remarkably like the tropical depression that became Tropical Storm Ernesto last week, TD 7 has a limited region of heavy thunderstorms, as seen on satellite loops. A large amount of dry air to the west and north is visible on water vapor satellite loops, and this dry air is interfering with TD 7's heavy thunderstorms. Wind shear is a light 5 - 10 knots, which is favorable for intensification. Ocean temperatures are 26.5°C, which is a bit on the cool side, but these temperatures are 0.5° warmer than on Thursday. Winds at the Middle Atlantic buoy 41041 peaked at 29 mph, gusting to 38 mph, at 1:50 am EDT this Friday morning, when the center of TD 7 passed about 40 miles to the south. TD 7 will pass about 60 miles south of buoy 41040 near midnight tonight. The first hurricane hunter mission into TD 7 is scheduled for Saturday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of TD 7.

Forecast for TD 7
TD 7 formed about 400 miles east-northeast of where Ernesto became a tropical depression, as seen on our wundermap. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are currently quite similar to what Ernesto experienced, and I expect TD 7 will struggle with dry air like Ernesto did. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will remain light through tonight, then rise to the moderate range on Saturday, when the storm will encounter upper-level southwesterly winds associated with a trough of low pressure. However, ocean temperatures will warm to 28°C, which may partially counteract the increase in shear, as far as maintaining a favorable environment for development. Dry air and shear may be significant enough to destroy TD 7 on Sunday, as predicted by the GFS and ECMWF models. These models tried to kill off Ernesto in a similar situation last week, so I am inclined to believe TD 7 will survive for the coming five days, but struggle. The official NHC forecast of a 45 mph tropical storm moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands Saturday night and Sunday is a reasonable one.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

93L
A strong tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic that emerged off the coast of Africa Thursday night was designated Invest 93L by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 93L a 50% chance of becoming a tropical depression by Sunday morning. Satellite loops show a pronounced spin to the atmosphere at mid levels, but little in the way of heavy thunderstorm activity. The latest Saharan Air Layer Analysis from the University of Wisconsin shows that while the atmosphere immediately surrounding the disturbance is moist, there is a large area of dry air from the Sahara to the west and north. This dry air will be a significant impediment to development during the coming week. The ECMWF model shows some weak development of 93L over the coming week, and predicts a general west-northwesterly track. The storm may be something Bermuda needs to be concerned about in eight or so days.

I'll have a new post this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting DrMickey:

Big R on that; TWC is controlled by Bain Corp.


so?
if td 7 is not name Gordon today or tomorrow morning it may never will.
Quoting jascott1967:


The conditions ahead of TD7 are not any better and are actually worse than what Ernesto encountered. There's more dry air in front of TD7 and a ULL is racing down from the north which will cause high shear for TD7 before it makes it to the Lesser Antilles. It is extremely likely that TD7 will be destroyed before it makes it to the western Caribbean.

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could

At this rate, they will probably be issuing TS watches and/or warnings for Barbados (first in line) and the rest of the Lesser Antilles by 5:00 pm or 11:00 pm at the latest.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could




Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could


The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already here if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


fatladycaster
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

wow ok you guys can't listen must be deaf look as that ULL in the NW caribbean moves N the one N of TD7 moves S the caribbean will still have lower shear its like this
this is what I think could happen and it you think about it is does seen like it could


Actually, the ULL in the Western Caribbean is more likely to push west, since there is a trough coming to the east coast. Also, TD7 already has an anticyclone. But the TUTT isn't forecast to do much except create shear.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


You don't think it staying shallow will help it? I mean look how strong that high is moving 07L if it stays shallow shouldnt it hitch the same ride?
93L would actually be steered by the A/B High and move in tandem with it until it reaches a weakness which looks to develop around 60 W, since it is already more farther north the chances of this happening seem really good as well as history would suggest it. TD7 is also being steered by the A/B High but right now it is farther south and west of 93L and will continue to travel westward until it reaches the western Caribbean where either one of two things will happen the Sonoran High will take over steering and continue moving TD 7 westward or a trough will pull it into the GOM.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...

What I mean by that is, that a set-up like that would mean good enough conditions to intensify, which is not exactly what is expected as it crosses the caribbean.
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


Dude.. It's August.
Link
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.


Yaaaaa about your "El Nino" have fun sitting on the sidelines why we enjoy our above average season
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Good. Please delete your link to this blog while you're at it, since you won't need to log on here, either.
Quoting Coastalgramps:



Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?

now you listen old man I am not foecasting it to go to cayman so sshhh and sit down


Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The Set-up would have to be Perfect...
Still possible, but not likely at this time...

ah you hit the key words

at this time
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Who called Debby Downer?
Get her, the hell outta here...
Like about 5 other people in the past week... IGNORED
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.

Todays date: August 10th, still lots of time left and the wave train is getting into full swing. We aren't even in peak season yet. Rethink that and don't give up of forget about this hurricane season.
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already hear if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.
Even the Noaa is predicting more storms for this season.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


certainly not for a good team like the Saints...


Fixed that for ya.
A quick shout out to the all the wonderful bloggers on here for all their amazing information and analysis during hurricane season. I have been a constant lurker here for many years and certainly appreciate all of the insight shared here.

My quick thoughts on TD7, threat to GOM in a few days if it can survive the dry air and shear. Water temps are too high for this to just go away.

Thoughts on ridging and track for TD7 if it reaches far enough west?
Quoting dfwstormwatch:
Link

Yaaaaa about your "El Nino" have fun sitting on the sidelines why we enjoy our above average season

slightly* above average season
still more enjoyable than a 2006-09 season :)
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already here if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.
I guess they want you to get the hell out of Dodge.... LOL... Matt Dillon would say the same
Dude........?
Well, looks like mcluvin accomplished his/her goal of riling up/trolling the blog. Look at all the responses. Lol.
unless system is organized enough and northward to feel the pull north, hard to see a trough picking this up. I see your point but the high above too strong
Quoting mcluvincane:
One can almost hear a faint voice coming from the fat lady on the hurricane season, guess she's looking at the euro and GFS lol. The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing. I was hoping for a tropical system to help out with the drought but that just ain't going to happen with this set up. The door was open for a CONUS strike but now has quickly shut. The strong high has broken down allowing for recurvature to happen. The trade winds in the Caribbean are way to high to allow a storm to develope. El nino will be arriving soon also (officially), it's already here if u ask me but that will more than likely put the final nail in this years hurricane season. Putting away my tracking charts, deleting my tracking software and I'm done this year.



have fun digging them out for the season in a few weeks
Quoting wxchaser97:

Todays date: August 10th, still lots of time left and the wave train is getting into full swing. We aren't even in peak season yet. Rethink that and don't give up of forget about this hurricane season.
Not to mention there wasn't much going on until Irene entered the picture last year, which is 10 days from now and after that the Tropics stayed active and didn't end until November. 2009 which was also an El Nino didn't end until November. So still plenty of time and I wouldn't doubt we have 3 tropical systems simultaneously spinning at one time.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Just kidding lmao!! I knew i would get that kinda response lol. You guys are nuts. Hell, i waiting on the big one. I'm here till the end
Yea right
I think Mcluvincane is just being an attention whore, to get everyone to quote him/her...
Comments:
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Sarcasm Flag: Partially ON
Quoting mcluvincane:
Just kidding lmao!! I knew i would get that kinda response lol. You guys are nuts. Hell, i waiting on the big one. I'm here till the end


im mcluvin it....
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, looks like mcluvin accomplished his/her goal of riling up/trolling the blog. Look at all the responses. Lol.

534.
...was boomers east of me, high dark clouds too but they moved on..looks like someone else is getting the storms and lightning
lol!
Quoting mcluvincane:
Just kidding lmao!! I knew i would get that kinda response lol. You guys are nuts. Hell, i waiting on the big one. I'm here till the end

Really?
Are you really kidding?
Or are you just "Kidding" because you got bashed for calling this season a "Bust" by about 7 People...
I'm just glad it's Friday
....................................yep its going to be a wild weekend here alright, starting early too
Quoting Grothar:
I've been listening to this guy for years. It is a nice link.




Link





Love it.

thanks!
Quoting LargoFl:
....................................yep its going to be a wild weekend here alright, starting early too

No shield to protect you tonight...
Quoting jeffs713:

Actually, the ULL in the Western Caribbean is more likely to push west, since there is a trough coming to the east coast. Also, TD7 already has an anticyclone. But the TUTT isn't forecast to do much except create shear.

hey I did not say is more likely I said is moving that means I just looked at it on WV and its moving N

and currently TD7 has a very weak anticyclone on it I'm thinking it will move into the caribbean and a bigger one will be provided when it reaches

these TUTTs have a tendency to change against forcast sometimes


Quoting HurricaneDean07:


I think conditions will be good enough for it to be alive and some slight strengthening maybe 5-10kt higher

and plus things change nothing is really as we expect anymore
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

No shield to protect you tonight...
..lol..shields being serviced lol
look guys I am not expecting conditions to be perfect but just good enough
539
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Really?
Are you really kidding?
Or are you just "Kidding" because you got bashed for calling this season a "Bust" by about 7 People...


Kidding, I've been tracking storms way to long to call it this early. I did that one year and Opal was at my front door a week later
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey I did not say is more likely I said is moving that means I just looked at it on WV and its moving N

and currently TD7 has a very weak anticyclone on it I'm thinking it will move into the caribbean and a bigger one will be provided when it reaches

these TUTTs have a tendency to change against forcast sometimes




I think conditions will be good enough for it to be alive and some slight strengthening maybe 5-10kt higher

and plus things change nothing is really as we expect anymore

I guess so...
E.I. Debby and Ernesto...

I only expect it to be a 45 Mph TS when it reaches the islands... and 50 Mph TOPS in the central caribbean... Once it reaches the Western caribbean, 65-70 is possible :)
wow the whole east coast is gonna get the heavy rains in the forecast
Largo.........It seems like your little quadrant of Florida has been getting hammered with the storms lately... It seems like here in Palm Beach county we get the same thing... Many say it is because of Lake Okeechobee.......Not sure, but we sure do get our share of bad storms here
Be back later...
Quoting Tribucanes:
NHC, come on keep it real, Ernesto is a TS now without a doubt imo. Looking for the NHC to come out with the statement that Ernesto did the rare feat of making the crossover. Ernesto never changed entities, COC didn't die, it simply relocated.


It's a tough call, but I can relate to NHC's thinking on it. The LLC was truly disrupted as expected, becoming quite diffuse to point I couldn't identify a coherent, trackable center from sat imagery and obs which remains the NHC's criteria for cross-basin continuity... although a somewhat broad circulation in "low level" wind field via MX observations, such as between Mexico City and Acapulco has been apparent... At any rate a new LLC is trying to form now along / off the coast - ha, past day the strong convection bursting out along MX's SW coast in response has been calling out, "Hey Erny, look we found another warm water source, come on over!"...

LOL, I did get a kick outta NHC's change in outlook on the probability the mid-upper vortex would survive the trek across to either regenerate or reform another TC, as many of us pointed out since about last Sunday via GFS forecast analysis - I thought might had a chance to retain it's name had it made a shorter, less disruptive trip across, say dropping more SW-ward to re-emerge... Anyway, we all know the now 70% chance development originated directly from Ernesto, more clearly so than the Alma / Arthur connection in 2008.

Later friends...
I respect what you are saying and I am sure you know more about weather and tropical systems than I do but to call this season a bust? If el nino does develop quicker than storm totals will be less but looking at the season still ahead and having 3 landfalls (2 florida and 1 Yucatan), I would say recurves have not happened that much. Also, the high weakening? It could not be that weak if Ernesto and TD 7 are going west. The high is stronger this year than the previous three years. There are probably going to be some recurves in any season regardless of a strong high or not. I would not count this season out yet. The most active part of the season and dangerous is still yet to come especially home grown storms. The caribbean and the gulf are very warm and trade winds near normal. Is it possible this hurricane season could be a bust? Yeah, it's possible but it's also possible to have an average active or even above active season. If anyone disagrees with me, please prove me wrong.


It's trying to get a little more convective organization, but still a long way to go.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Just kidding lmao!! I knew i would get that kinda response lol. You guys are nuts. Hell, i waiting on the big one. I'm here till the end


Well I've been lurking so far all season but I just had to login here to POOF! this troll. Life is just a tad bit better now.
Any thoughts on the W. Caribbean blobbage? Looks nice 'n wet, but I didn't see any good outflow on it as of sat pic a few minutes ago. I'd just like to know where we think that's headed -- assuming it can hang together.
561. SLU
10/1745 UTC 17.1N 21.5W TOO WEAK 93L
10/1745 UTC 13.8N 51.1W T1.5/1.5 07L
Quoting waveRoller:


Love it.

thanks!


Did you read his memories on Katrina? Impressive.
http://28storms.com/about/
(Scroll down)
Threat for spinup tornadoes in my area today:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1734
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0103 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101803Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT...WHICH CURRENTLY APPEARS A BIT
MARGINAL...BUT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DISCUSSION...A DISTINCT CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER AND ASSOCIATED
40-50 KT 500 MB JET STREAK...EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES CYCLONE...CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND AREA AT AROUND 25-30 KT. A CLUSTER OF
VIGOROUS CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE...SUPPORTED BY LIFT OF
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS ABOVE 70/ WHICH EXTENDS IN A
CORRIDOR NEAR...BUT SLOWLY BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST OF ATLANTIC
COASTAL AREAS.

AS THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION MIGRATES TOWARD EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS/THE CAPE COD AREA...BETWEEN NOW AND 21-22Z...THE
CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.
GIVEN THE MOIST PROFILES WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES...HEAVY RAINFALL
APPEARS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...BUT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THIS THREAT LARGELY HINGES ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERLY LEVEL-LEVEL FLOW AND ASSOCIATED NEAR SURFACE VERTICAL
SHEAR. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS CURRENTLY APPEAR SOMEWHAT WEAK...BUT
MODEST STRENGTHENING AT WINDS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF
RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 08/10/2012

Quoting ParanoidAndroid:


Well I've been lurking so far all season but I just had to login here to POOF! this troll. Life is just a tad bit better now.
I give everyone benefit of the doubt..We have all said things we regret saying. Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you.... That's the way it is
Quoting kwgirl:
Did you know that he helped in the prison, Fort Jefferson, with the yellow fever epidemic when the Doctor at the fort died? That's how he got his pardon, I was told. Pardoned to go work in Panama.
This was the place in the Keys, right? Think I read a Nnevada Barr novel set there....
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I give everyone benefit of the doubt..We have all said things we regret saying. Sometimes you eat the bear, and sometimes the bear eats you.... That's the way it is


Not a troll by no means, i was just trying to live up the blog. Seems a bit down to me lately.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Not a troll by no means, i was just trying to live up the blog. Seems a bit down to me lately.
I'm ok with you.........
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208101814
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 94, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1025W, 25, 1005, DB
Quoting Coastalgramps:



Have you ever created a "forecast" that doesn't involve a system coming straight for the Cayman islands?
Gramps with the hammer!
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How about we all stop quoting trolls and just ignore them?

I know that 2pm TWO was kind of a buzzkill but surely we can still find tropical weather related topics to talk about.
When there is nothing major going on... and the blogs slows down... HERE COME THE POLITICS ARGUMENTS! I hate politics -__-
581. VR46L
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Any thoughts on the W. Caribbean blobbage? Looks nice 'n wet, but I didn't see any good outflow on it as of sat pic a few minutes ago. I'd just like to know where we think that's headed -- assuming it can hang together.


Some folks I know spotted it yesterday, around the T&C Isalnds ,therefore its moving south ... But I would doubt it will develop into much but its an interesting Cloud Of Interest in fact a nice blob



Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
There are so many intrusive animals and insects here in sout Florida now..Fire ants, Iguanas, Peacock bass, Oscars, Cuban lizards, Africanized bees, Now freekin' Pythons......


And too many people wanting bling status pets :-)

In Cayman, we are suffering badly from Lion Fish - non indigenous, no known local predators, huge potential to deplete juvenille reef fish stocks (they do make good ceviche though) - and - it is thought that they came from Florida - some pet owner emptying his/her aquarium when fish became a little bigger than originally anticipated - but who really knows????
TD 7 Viz Loop



Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Carolina..... Just like to know who you report something like this to?......Just curious


I don't know, isnt that what the red "!" is for? If not, then I guess I'll just leave for the blog for the day and let the right wing nut jobs run the blog with their political jargon... I don't want to be a part of it
With the MJO impact we should see a lively pickup Aug 31st~Sept.15th.

Who knows, this year we can get another September to remember.
Quoting Phoenix30:
Thoughts on ridging and track for TD7 if it reaches far enough west?

Looking ahead to next week, the large north-south oriented ridge of high pressure over the western US is forecast to flatten out as a trough of low pressure pushes inland across the Pacific Northwest. In fact, by the middle of next week, the ridge is forecast to stretch east-west across the southern US, roughly from southern California to northern Florida. The models also indicate the magnitude of the ridge should weaken some during the middle and latter parts of next week.
This from our local LCRA met, Bob Rose http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/weather/weath er_column.html
mcluvincane, you certainly fooled us otherwise.
588. SLU
570

WHXX01 KWBC 101840

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1840 UTC FRI AUG 10 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN (AL072012) 20120810 1800 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120810 1800 120811 0600 120811 1800 120812 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.7N 50.9W 14.2N 55.0W 14.8N 59.3W 15.1N 63.7W

BAMD 13.7N 50.9W 14.1N 53.4W 15.0N 55.8W 16.1N 57.9W

BAMM 13.7N 50.9W 14.1N 53.8W 14.8N 56.8W 15.5N 59.5W

LBAR 13.7N 50.9W 13.9N 54.4W 14.4N 58.0W 15.1N 61.4W

SHIP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 37KTS

DSHP 30KTS 32KTS 36KTS 37KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120812 1800 120813 1800 120814 1800 120815 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 15.5N 68.3W 16.0N 77.5W 16.4N 85.4W 17.3N 91.2W

BAMD 17.2N 59.6W 19.1N 62.6W 20.3N 65.8W 21.5N 69.1W

BAMM 16.2N 62.0W 17.4N 66.7W 18.7N 71.5W 20.4N 76.2W

LBAR 15.8N 64.5W 17.9N 69.5W 20.6N 72.8W 21.6N 76.2W

SHIP 39KTS 43KTS 51KTS 62KTS

DSHP 39KTS 43KTS 51KTS 62KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 50.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 22KT

LATM12 = 13.6N LONM12 = 46.3W DIRM12 = 269DEG SPDM12 = 19KT

LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 42.9W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting Bluestorm5:
When there is nothing major going on... and the blogs slows down... HERE COME THE POLITICS ARGUMENTS! I hate politics -__-

We have a TD and an invest, this shouldn't happen.
Category 5 Hurricane Isaac couldn't come soon enough.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Dunno about anything over 50% for 93L.
CVIs def. getting some wx from it, tho....
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep942012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201208101814
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

EP, 94, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 170N, 1025W, 25, 1005, DB
Ernesto, gone yet renumbered.
;)

Add:


(T-5)
Quoting Patrap:
WunderBlogAdmin

WunderBlogAdmin is a generic handle used by the employees to interact with bloggers. This gives a single point of contact for our members to report issues and dispute bans.

As noted in our terms of service, Weather Underground does not maintain 24/7 watch over the blogs and administration is not real time. Administrators will deal with problems and answer notes when they can, so please be patient.
For questions about these rules please contact

WunderBlogAdmin.


How do I contact them?
I'm surprised how few people are interested in Ernesto making the transition from one basin to another... This doesn't happen all that often, it's a pretty cool event IMO:

Quoting SSideBrac:


And too many people wanting bling status pets :-)

In Cayman, we are suffering badly from Lion Fish - non indigenous, no known local predators, huge potential to deplete juvenille reef fish stocks (they do make good ceviche though) - and - it is thought that they came from Florida - some pet owner emptying his/her aquarium when fish became a little bigger than originally anticipated - but who really knows????
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.
Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)
If it isn't related to the tropics and weather, you had better stow it. Last chance.
Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)


Go post your nonsense on a fox for kids website. This is a weather blog.
.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


... and you have been reported as well. TROPICAL WEATHER... not politics
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:


... and you have been reported as well. TROPICAL WEATHER... not politics
Blog police or what? Ignore it
6.3 earthquake in the Aleutian Islands.



TSUNAMI SEISMIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NWS WEST COAST/ALASKA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER PALMER AK
1040 AM AKDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...THIS IS AN INFORMATION STATEMENT...

EVALUATION
AN EARTHQUAKE HAS OCCURRED WITH A MAGNITUDE SUCH THAT A TSUNAMI
IS NOT EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY WCATWC MESSAGE ISSUED
FOR THIS EVENT.

PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE PARAMETERS
MAGNITUDE - 6.3
TIME - 1038 AKDT AUG 10 2012
1138 PDT AUG 10 2012
1838 UTC AUG 10 2012
LOCATION - 52.6 NORTH 167.4 WEST
70 MILES/113 KM SE OF NIKOLSKI ALASKA
400 MILES/644 KM E OF ADAK ALASKA
DEPTH - 19 MILES/31 KM

THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE ARE BASED ON PRELIMINARY INFORMATION.
FURTHER INFORMATION WILL BE ISSUED BY THE UNITED STATES
GEOLOGICAL SURVEY - EARTHQUAKE.USGS.GOV - OR THE APPROPRIATE
REGIONAL SEISMIC NETWORK.

$$
Quoting LargoFl:
.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
This has become the new normal it seems a tropical wave every week to enhance our rainfall.
Extensively using the ignore list with the politics today.
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
TD #7

Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





Early Model Wind Forecasts

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.
SS , Looks a a problem that is going to be tough to stop... Very nasty fish
Why the hell are we talking about politics?.And your right GTcooolibai.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

FLZ055-060-101915-
MANATEE-SARASOTA-
229 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN SARASOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MANATEE COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATES STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED NEAR FRUITVILLE...OR NEAR SARASOTA...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH...
WILL AFFECT FRUITVILLE...SAINT ARMANDS KEY...BEE RIDGE AND
SARASOTA...UNTIL 315 PM EDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 205 AND 224.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.
TO BE SAFE GO INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW
SPOT...AND STAY AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA
SIZE HAIL. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE
A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8241 2729 8235 2723 8254 2735 8260
2734 8256 2739 8257 2742 8260 2738 8262
2742 8261 2743 8264 2748 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 162DEG 5KT 2734 8247

$$
anyone think Gordon will come at the 5pm advisory?
Quoting LargoFl:
.................................it looks like it IS the wave that is going to cross florida and into the gulf, going to be a wild and wet weekend..big boomers just to the east of me now, seems to be headed back this way, cant tell the clouds are moving so slow,tampa must be getting it good right now
NWS says they're drifting to the NE at 5 mph. It looks as if the sea breeze has pushed east of Tampa on the high-def radar.
Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)


" A few Good Men" LOL
Quoting washingtonian115:
Why the hell are we talking about politics?.And your right GTcooolibai.

Nobody should since we got TD7, 93L, epac Gilma and 94E.
Quoting SouthTampa:
NWS says they're drifting to the NE at 5 mph. It looks as if the sea breeze has pushed east of Tampa on the high-def radar.
..ok, man its Booming here now, one just shook my house lol..strong thunderstorms for sure
Quoting allancalderini:
anyone think Gordon will come at the 6pm advisory?

18z ATCF update kept it a TD so most likely not.
I'm hearing thunder.......Need to go check the local radar..BRB
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I'm surprised how few people are interested in Ernesto making the transition from one basin to another... This doesn't happen all that often, it's a pretty cool event IMO:

It would have been amazing if it has retain Ernesto as a name instead they would name it Hector when it strength.
TD7 Should be TS Gordon at 4pm imo., Just want to say the Difference between TD7 and Ernesto, Td7 though smaller has a much better defined tighter LLC IMO.
anyone here from NY?..how is it up there?.......................BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
247 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...

* UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

* AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES PER HOUR...WHICH COULD
RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING ON ROADWAYS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.



LAT...LON 4107 7185 4072 7289 4097 7291 4099 7263
4117 7225 4116 7223 4112 7226 4112 7233
4105 7226 4104 7220 4107 7216 4102 7212
4102 7211 4103 7211 4108 7211 4113 7213
4113 7212 4110 7207 4100 7210 4108 7196


SEARS
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Non weather question here..... Are you all getting up to 5 calls a day on your land line wanting to know who you are voting for in the upcoming elections.? This is the worst I have ever seen.. What is scary they know that you voted, and for what party............."BIG BROTHER" If I never voted they would not bother me.
which makes the voter id fraud claims I've heard even more specious... wonder if such calls are actually designed to turn potential voters off from voting... or if they have legal access / rights to be soliciting the info... they don't do that kind of stuff here... the current fave is having listeners call in to talk shows to say who they would vote for...

BTW, it's clearing here for the nonce... saw a glimmer of sun a few minutes ago... lol... first time today...

Here ya go Largo I hear the boomers too.

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
I'm hearing thunder.......Need to go check the local radar..BRB
Back.........Looks like most of it is over the ocean...For now
Quoting LargoFl:
..ok, man its Booming here now, one just shook my house lol..strong thunderstorms for sure


Yep. They're popping up all over the place now. Should be a fun commute home!
Quoting stormpetrol:
TD7 Should be TS Gordon at 4pm imo., Just want to say the Difference between TD7 and Ernesto, Td7 though smaller has a much better defined tighter LLC IMO.


It is certainly fighting off the dry air and will hit the sweet spot between 55 and 60 W during Dmax so it definitely has a good chance of "bulking up" for the ride through the Eastern caribbean.
Quoting SouthTampa:


Yep. They're popping up all over the place now. Should be a fun commute home!
..yes be careful ok
Quoting GTcooliebai:
This has become the new normal it seems a tropical wave every week to enhance our rainfall.
Just said this to a friend of mine... lol

TD 7 WV Loop

TD07's new coordinates:

AL, 07, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 137N, 509W, 30, 1009, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 100, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SEVEN, M,

Meanwhile, 93L isn't doing so well:

AL, 93, 2012081018, , BEST, 0, 169N, 216W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 240, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

One a side note: when will people grow up and stop trolling? And when will everyone else learn to ignore those trolls?
Quoting SouthTampa:
Extensively using the ignore list with the politics today.


I would be careful with that..some of our really good tropics contributors also like to "contribute" politically...I would just minus the political comments as they come, if you don't like to read them....then you don't miss the quality tropics discussion....just my opinion..feel free to do whatever you like :)
Quoting Patrap:
Is the Blog the right Height?

LOL
Good quote Pat..... Mine is "Does this hat make my butt look big"?
here is the 2pm discussion....................................000
AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI AUG 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO AT 10/1500 UTC IS
NEAR 18.0N 99.2W. THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO ARE INLAND MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE FORECAST MOVEMENT OF THE REMNANTS
ERNESTO MAY MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...NEAR
17N104W...DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN MEXICO AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W...AND FROM
18N TO 20N BETWEEN 98W AND 101W AT 10/0715 UTC.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND THE PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN THOSE AREAS. COLD CLOUD TOPS AND
POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 19N TO 20N
BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN...ON THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...
TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 95W AND 105W.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN AT 10/1500 UTC IS NEAR
13.7N 49.5W. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 47W AND 57W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20W/21W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 16N.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 16N TO 18N
BETWEEN 21W AND 23W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 24N
BETWEEN 20W AND 27W. THIS FEATURE HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 17 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR
18N16W...THROUGH THE 20W/21W TROPICAL WAVE TO 14N21W 9N30W
AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W TO COASTAL FRENCH
GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND
30W...AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 30W AND 35W. CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE
MOVING FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND IN GUYANA AND
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 58W AND 62W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE WEST OF 90W...MOVING AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 86W.
THIS WIND FLOW IS PART OF THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE REST OF THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW RESULTS FROM THE 32N88W TO
28N88W TROUGH.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N88W TO
28N88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
27N BETWEEN 82W AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST
OF MEXICO.

FROM FLORIDA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA NEAR 21N83W. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...THROUGH THE 21N83W CYCLONIC
CENTER...TO 10N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 74W AND 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 23N TO
26N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 70W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N
TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN
THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N86W TO THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 70W. THIS WIND
FLOW RESULTS FROM NORTHERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 30N50W 24N52W 18N55W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W...
TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN 75W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 84W IN NICARAGUA
AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N50W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N52W 18N55W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W...AND FROM
22N TO 27N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 35N38W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 32N47W...TO 31N69W...TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS RELATED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


Big Rain coming in to S FL now
WOW...Ernesto has already made headway into the E-pac...looks like he's destined to reincarnate himself there...

I've done yet another detalied blog updated this morning covering all corners of the action packed Atlantic tropics...Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.


No Romney or Obama, please. This is a weather blog!
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming in to S FL now
Yep........Getting noisy, and dark
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming in to S FL now
..lots of lightning too i bet..stay safe down there
Quoting LargoFl:
..lots of lightning too i bet..stay safe down there
Looks like both coasts are getting hammered
Early-August 2012 Greenland ice reflectivity dips again below 2 standard deviations

As in the mid-July case, the early August ice sheet albedo has declined to an average more than 5% (or 2 standard deviations) below the average of the previous 12 years (2000-2011). A “2-sigma” event has a probability of occurrence under 5% in a random climate.

93L isn't looking that great, wonder if the GFS may be right in only weakly developing this.
Quoting DocNDswamp:


It's a tough call, but I can relate to NHC's thinking on it. The LLC was truly disrupted as expected, becoming quite diffuse to point I couldn't identify a coherent, trackable center from sat imagery and obs which remains the NHC's criteria for cross-basin continuity... although a somewhat broad circulation in "low level" wind field via MX observations, such as between Mexico City and Acapulco has been apparent... At any rate a new LLC is trying to form now along / off the coast - ha, past day the strong convection bursting out along MX's SW coast in response has been calling out, "Hey Erny, look we found another warm water source, come on over!"...

LOL, I did get a kick outta NHC's change in outlook on the probability the mid-upper vortex would survive the trek across to either regenerate or reform another TC, as many of us pointed out since about last Sunday via GFS forecast analysis - I thought might had a chance to retain it's name had it made a shorter, less disruptive trip across, say dropping more SW-ward to re-emerge... Anyway, we all know the now 70% chance development originated directly from Ernesto, more clearly so than the Alma / Arthur connection in 2008.

Later friends...


Hey Doc, my Leo/Snake/Bro!!!

Been lurking and getting really bored until you posted.
We have Birthday's coming up soon... We are getting old!!!
Good to see you post!
Gams
The big problem with political trolls is that some of them are "tropical experts" that likes to discuss politics as well. I just can't put them on ignored list in the case that this person is legal and not a troll.
TD 7 Viz

Quoting barbamz:


Did you read his memories on Katrina? Impressive.
http://28storms.com/about/
(Scroll down)



The Katrina paras brought back some memories for sure.
Good writing.
Telling people to ignore trolls is like telling some people to ignore the obvious shark in the water.Lol.I still think T.D 7 has a chance to become Gordon.Especially since 93L isn't doing so well.So their's definitely a chance for it to happen into tonight and tomorrow morning before it get's ripped apart in the eastern caribbean.
Quoting mcluvincane:
The conus will more than likely be spared yet once again from a strong hurricane, something i think will be a trend for a few more years which is a good thing.


You mean like how we were spared from the 5th costliest hurricane in history last year? Oh right, that doesn't count because it wasn't a hit on the Gulf states and especially florida.

Irene
Joan-Miriam 1988 deadly and expensive hurricane


Desar-Douglas 1996 I experienced this one


Greta-Olivia 1978


Fifi-Orlene 1974

I don't understand the Epac track of this storm...

IRENE!!!!-Olivia 1971 long back irene goes


TD 11E-Hermine 2010


Gert-TD 14E 1 1993




and many others have done what stubborn Ernesto wants to do

Ernesto-Hector 2012 both guy names


and the big picture
.....................................GT we are surrounded lol...first few raindrops starting to fall here by me
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS. I was diving in Key Largo a few weeks ago. On the bay side. Saw quite a few lionfish there.... Here in Palm Beach county we have regular lionfish roundups... We are getting hundreds of them.... Very scary.


Cannot kill them quickly enough - sad but true - they seem to have found the ideal environment for success - no predators and lots of food - in between weather watching, trying to find the magic bullet of Lionfish Caviar!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.


Pretty strong storms moving into SE Fla this afternoon.
07L approaching Buoy 41040:

Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!
..ive been watching that for days now, its a tropical wave that stalled there for what seems like a week now, there IS a watch for it there..still purple so far
Check the FRONTS and MSLP Boxes here

Gulf Of Mexico - Water Vapor Loop
I don't want to discuss politics on a WEATHER BLOG!!!!!.Their is plenty other blogs to discuss this.I want to talk about weather.I have to hear my husband,dad,mother,and brothers and sisters discuss politics on the regular bases along with my co-workers.So please take it some where else.....We know politics affect us.But this isn't the place to discuss especially when their's several tropical entities out there...
Quoting 954FtLCane:


Pretty strong storms moving into SE Fla this afternoon.
..yes i see that..supposed to move over florida this weekend..by me they have it at 50% for the weekend into monday i think
For the central north Pacific, between 140W and 180.

1. A gale low centered about 270 miles northwest of Midway atoll, or about 1440 miles west-northwest of Lihue Hawaii, was moving to the north-northeast at around 20 miles per hour. This system briefly had tropical characteristics and will continue to produce large areas of thunderstorms with strong and gusty winds as well as locally heavy rainfall. Environmental conditions are not conducive for tropical cyclone development within this area, and there is a low chance, near 0 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.

so it was briefly TS Pewa?

Quoting washingtonian115:
Telling people to ignore trolls is like telling some people to ignore the obvious shark in the water.Lol.I still think T.D 7 has a chance to become Gordon.Especially since 93L isn't doing so well.So their's definitely a chance for it to happen into tonight and tomorrow morning before it get's ripped apart in the eastern caribbean.


Agreed on both parts.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!


I thought I saw one there yesterday also but everyone said it was nothing just a wave...

we've been getting big storms off and on today here in SE Fla.

Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to discuss politics on a WEATHER BLOG!!!!!.Their is plenty other blogs to discuss this.I want to talk about weather.I have to hear my husband,dad,mother,and brothers and sisters discuss politics on the regular bases along with my co-workers.So please take it some where else.....We know politics affect us.But this isn't the place to discuss especially when their's several tropical entities out there...
..so..are you..going to stop?..post weather..
Quoting SSideBrac:


Cannot kill them quickly enough - sad but true - they seem to have found the ideal environment for success - no predators and lots of food - in between weather watching, trying to find the magic bullet of Lionfish Caviar!
Last year "they" were saying they were excellent to eat... Now I have heard "please be careful eating them"
Very nasty storm over St. Petersburg. Ominous clouds, frequent lightning, very heavy rain with flooding of streets here 1.5 miles east of First Street and north of 47th Avenue, periods of strong gusty winds driving the rain. Street flooding is the biggest issue right now. Very large raindrops some of which may have been small hail. This storm is close to severe.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
156 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DIAMONDHEAD...
SOUTH CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF STENNIS SPACE CENTER TO STENNIS SPACE
CENTER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PICAYUNE TO 9 MILES SOUTH OF PICAYUNE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10
MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KILN
AND PEARLINGTON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

PLEASE FOLLOW OUR OFFICE ON BOTH FACEBOOK AND TWITTER FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON SEVERE WEATHER AND TO RELAY WEATHER REPORTS AND
PHOTOS.



LAT...LON 3045 8934 3038 8934 3019 8958 3031 8964
3031 8963 3034 8963 3036 8966 3041 8969
3043 8968 3060 8956
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 309DEG 10KT 3047 8955 3039 8964



22/TD
From 2 pm discussion.

What the heck does the last sentence mean.....LOl


A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE
Beware the Anti-Post?

: )
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Just because you don't take an interest in politics, doesn't mean they don't take an interest in you.
One of the biggest elections in our countries history is occurring in 3 months I don't understand why everyone's so up in arms about discussing it.


Maybe because this is a weather blog not a politics blog.. just saying...
Quoting TampaBayStormChaser:
Very nasty storm over St. Petersburg. Ominous clouds, frequent lightning, very heavy rain with flooding of streets here 1.5 miles east of First Street and north of 47th Avenue, periods of strong gusty winds driving the rain. Street flooding is the biggest issue right now. Very large raindrops some of which may have been small hail. This storm is close to severe.
oh yes been hearing all the boomers alright..stay safe down there
Time to sit back - shrug off any prevailing "Caribbean blob phobia" and observe, identify, assess and act(as required).
Quoting LargoFl:
..ive been watching that for days now, its a tropical wave that stalled there for what seems like a week now, there IS a watch for it there..still purple so far
Very interesting,it seems that all the action this Hurricane Season will be in the Caribbean??,to close for comfort!!!!,for us here in South Florida.
Quoting Hurricane1956:
I just wondering is a low is trying to form south of Western Cuba,you can see a define spin in that area, a lot of moisture around,maybe another Invest?,the way things are going in the tropics now,it will not surprise me to see something developing south of Cuba,I remember a couple of days ago,the CMC model having a system forming in that area and moving North,it dosen't show it anymore but at one point it did.Will see!!
Actually a tiny spin there and just SSE of key west.
It's rumbling up again here in Northwest Florida. Expecting today's third round of heavy rain and lighting to arrive shortly.
An interesting race is developing between a ULL digging down from the N of TD7 and the depression itself trying to scoot to the West underneath it before it can impart too much shear over the circulation. At the present forward speed TD7 may win that race.

See WV loop here
Quoting Abacosurf:
From 2 pm discussion.

What the heck does the last sentence mean.....LOl


A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 25N
INTO COASTAL HONDURAS MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
THE WAVE IS MOVING OUT OF AND AWAY FROM THE AREA OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IT IS DIFFICULT TO ASSOCIATE
ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT JUST ACCOMPANIES ONLY THE
TROPICAL WAVE
..looks like it means they see rain but its all around the wave but its hard to tell if the rains are WITH the wave
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Last year "they" were saying they were excellent to eat... Now I have heard "please be careful eating them"


Whoops - checks all my body parts, heart beat etc - fine so far - but TY for tip
Quoting kmanislander:
An interesting race is developing between a ULL digging down from the N of TD7 and the depression itself trying to scoot to the West underneath it before it can impart too much shear over the circulation. At the present forward speed TD7 may win that race.

See WV loop here


Yeah, I was mentioning that last night during the night shift. It's often difficult for models to predict the movement of TUTTs accurately. They are often times to quick with moving them.
Quoting HondosGirl:
It's rumbling up again here in Northwest Florida. Expecting today's third round of heavy rain and lighting to arrive shortly.
..stay safe up there ..lots of lightning today with these storms, went outside before and I cant remember the sun being THIS hot before, and ive been here for a long time, the strong heat and ALOT of humidty..the storms are strong, and possibly dangerous today
Quoting SSideBrac:


Whoops - checks all my body parts, heart beat etc - fine so far - but TY for tip
SS, Where are you?
My forecast of TD7....NOT OFFICIAL!!!
img src="Photobucket">
We had some very heavy rain this morning.I'm talking about torrential.When I drove through rock creek park today the water was still unsettled and rather high.In some parts you can't tell because it's humid outside.It's threatening to storm again to.The clouds have been ominous,and it's also been windy.
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:


Maybe because this is a weather blog not a politics blog.. just saying...


Right, and no one ever talks about anything other than weather here.

Anyway, here is the big picture:


07L dealing with a lot of dry air to its north and west. A nice slow moving cold front is draped along the eastern CONUS. And a surface trough south of Cuba is being enhanced by the divergence that is being created by a TUTT of to its NE.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS, Where are you?


Cayman Islands - Cayman Brac - Yes - another one from Cayman
Quoting Hurricane1956:
Very interesting,it seems that all the action this Hurricane Season will be in the Caribbean??,to close for comfort!!!!,for us here in South Florida.
..yes i think the NWS said back in march..for us to be on the lookout this season for the local storms that form near us
Quoting LargoFl:
.....................................GT we are surrounded lol...first few raindrops starting to fall here by me
Big downpour here at ACH.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
My suggestion to you after the last hour ..........Sssshhhhh. Just an opinion
or I could say the same about the other "guy" but this aint the place or the forum for politics...
Quoting washingtonian115:
We had some very heavy rain this morning.I'm talking about torrential.When I drove through rock creek park today the water was still unsettled and rather high.In some parts you can't tell because it's humid outside.It's threatening to storm again to.The clouds have been ominous,and it's also been windy.
..the whole east coast is getting it, some real badly too
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.

Actually, the nonsense is posted uncited "research" as fact, then being indignant when asked for citations or verification. Also, it is complete nonsense to post political attacks and questionable information on a WEATHER BLOG.
Quoting LargoFl:
oh yes been hearing all the boomers alright..stay safe down there


Rain stopped in my area but has moved south and west of me though the storm looks to be sliding SE. Still constant lightning but the winds are calm.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Big Rain coming in to S FL now



You posted earlier that something off to the SE was suppose to cross fla into the GOM. Is this it?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
SS , Looks a a problem that is going to be tough to stop... Very nasty fish


We're also losing the battle here in the Virgin Islands with the Lion Fish. Nasty, nasty critters. Seems you can't snorkel anywhere without seeing one now.

Lindy
Quoting MississippiWx:
Well, looks like mcluvin accomplished his/her goal of riling up/trolling the blog. Look at all the responses. Lol.
We're bored while waiting to see what happens next w/ our three systems... lol

Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Really?
Are you really kidding?
Or are you just "Kidding" because you got bashed for calling this season a "Bust" by about 7 People...
I think he actually was just kidding... really.... lol

Quoting jrweatherman:
For those who can't handle the truth - I've got more:)
Just not in the WX blog, please. You will get banned if u keep it up. Look: pple have been told not to talk about the OLYMPICS in this blog... what makes u think politics is ok??? Sheesh...
Quoting LargoFl:
..yes i see that..supposed to move over florida this weekend..by me they have it at 50% for the weekend into monday i think

I hope you're right. I'll take rain over oppressive heat anytime!
wow looks like TD 7 is a stronger system it not even reached the bouy yet already seing pressure drop to 1012mb and still falling with wind at 19kts
bouy Station 41040 located at 14.477 N 53.008 W (14%uFFFD28'38" N 53%uFFFD0'28" W)

the TD is at 13.7N 50.9W

Link

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Agreed on both parts.
Might lose some of its punch while crossing the hostile zone, but would rise again like his predessor, good old Ernesto in the western Carobbean but in a more northern track of course...,
Quoting barbamz:
Did you read his memories on Katrina? Impressive.
http://28storms.com/about/


I just read Jason's memoirs of Katrina. They are more than just impressive. I teared-up when I finished reading the piece.

If the lad ever tires of met, he could have a helluva future as a writer.
Quoting LargoFl:
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
156 PM CDT FRI AUG 10 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
HANCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF DIAMONDHEAD...
SOUTH CENTRAL PEARL RIVER COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 152 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG



22/TD


Yes, as you say its been booming here all morning and my weather alert has been going off every 5 min.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


LOL cause it bashes a liberal its nonsense? I love how thats uncalled for, but if you come in here and bash Romney and Bain its fair game and no one peeps about it.
Actually, I don't need any of it here... lots of wx to talk about these days.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This was the place in the Keys, right? Think I read a Nnevada Barr novel set there....
Fort Jefferson is in the Dry Tortugas, about 70 miles west of Key West. It is a National Park, but the Government doesn't have the money to repair it. One of the curtain walls is falling down. They get hit with a lot of hurricanes out there. It is beautiful. Google it!
I finally got my first good storm since Monday, got nailed with plenty of heavy rain and most of all a great light show with numerous hits close to me.

Despite the fact that below average coverage was expected into to the weekend, I guess we are finally going to be headed back to where we should, which is great because August has started way too dry after having so much rain in June and July over much of the area
Quoting CrozetDutch:
Fox News : masters in psychology to snow millions of viewers. Propaganda channel superieure with mixes of lies and half-truths (selectively chosen) to beat democrats to pulp and idolize rightwing tea baggers and "republicans" 24/7. The most malignant cancer ever on the airwaves. One cannot call it journalism. No surprise as the boss is Roger Ailes, decades long GOP propagandist-in-chief.


Stop fussing about politics and stick to weather, the other major sources are no better, just from a different end of the political spectrum.

Quoting Bluestorm5:
The big problem with political trolls is that some of them are "tropical experts" that likes to discuss politics as well. I just can't put them on ignored list in the case that this person is legal and not a troll.
[-] the posts. Works most of the time.

Quoting LargoFl:
..ive been watching that for days now, its a tropical wave that stalled there for what seems like a week now, there IS a watch for it there..still purple so far
It's only been there for a couple days, no matter how lonw it seems... lol

Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Last year "they" were saying they were excellent to eat... Now I have heard "please be careful eating them"
I thought they were poisonous...

Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
My forecast of TD7....NOT OFFICIAL!!!
img src="Photobucket">
How come it's only wrong to forecast a storm getting close to the Caymans when you're from the Caymans???

uh...
just sayin?
...
Quoting kwgirl:
Fort Jefferson is in the Dry Tortugas, about 70 miles west of Key West. It is a National Park, but the Government doesn't have the money to repair it. One of the curtain walls is falling down. They get hit with a lot of hurricanes out there. It is beautiful. Google it!


When I was a kid (early teen) I spent a week down there, camped on the beach, the Fort was my playground, the ocean my swimming pool. I understand they have roped off a lot of it now, for many reasons, to protect it. It is a very special place, and it would be a shame if the storms damaged it.
I say TS watches for the Islands of Barbados, St. Vincet, St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica and Guadeloupe at 5pm advisory
Quoting BahaHurican:
[-] the posts. Works most of the time.

It's only been there for a couple days, no matter how lonw it seems... lol

I thought they were poisonous...

How come it's only wrong to forecast a storm getting close to the Caymans when you're from the Caymans???

uh...
just sayin?
...

you know so when I forecast it its wrong I don't think so
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Last year "they" were saying they were excellent to eat... Now I have heard "please be careful eating them"
Like any reef fish, they could have cigutera (SP?), which is very painful if you ingest fish with the bacteria (I think it's a bacteria). You can get it from snapper, grouper any reef fish. Mostly in the Caribbean, people get it from Barracuda. They prey on reef fish so they accumulate more. Just eat the little fish.:)
found this on the weather channal explaning whats in the western caribbean.


An upper-level trough which brought heavy rain to the northern Caribbean islands, and whose strong high-altitude winds "sheared" the remnants of Florence, has now, on its southern periphery, contributed to the formation of a concentrated area of convection (thunderstorms) over the western Caribbean. Satellite loops show that cluster of tstorms spinning, i.e. what meteorologists call a "mesoscale convective vortex" (MCV) has formed, which can sometimes lead to surface low pressure forming. That's what happened with the recent tropical storm wannabe in the Bahamas and Florida. On the other hand, such features can dissipate after a few hours. We'll watch to see what this one does.
two surface lows near florida
Quoting CrozetDutch:
Fox News : masters in psychology to snow millions of viewers. Propaganda channel superieure with mixes of lies and half-truths (selectively chosen) to beat democrats to pulp and idolize rightwing tea baggers and "republicans" 24/7. The most malignant cancer ever on the airwaves. One cannot call it journalism. No surprise as the boss is Roger Ailes, decades long GOP propagandist-in-chief.


Do you know what that term means, or could mean? I'm only asking because one definition of it is a vulgar slur that could get you banned from this site. I won't report you (I still believe in freedom of speech) but others may and have the right to try because of the site rules.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Stop fussing about politics and stick to weather, the other major sources are no better, just from a different end of the political spectrum.



+1000

Quickest way to get banned from this site is by talking politics. jrweatherman should not have started this garbage.
Quoting ncstorm:
two surface lows near florida

If we could beg, borrow or steal a decent anti-cyclone over the GOM it would make use of all the moisture thrashing about. Anything for even clouds, if we can't have rain....
Quoting washingtonian115:
I don't want to discuss politics on a WEATHER BLOG!!!!!.Their is plenty other blogs to discuss this.I want to talk about weather.I have to hear my husband,dad,mother,and brothers and sisters discuss politics on the regular bases along with my co-workers.So please take it some where else.....We know politics affect us.But this isn't the place to discuss especially when their's several tropical entities out there...


Here Here Im with you on this one!!

+1000
10August12pmGMT's 13.7n480w was re-evaluated&altered at ~1pmGMT
10August06pmGMT's 13.6n48.6w-13.7n50.9w are now the most recent positions
(Vectors and straightline projections have been corrected from the previous mapping)
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalDepressionSeven for 10August6pmGMT:
MinimumPressure remained 1009millibars
MaxSusWinds held at 30knots(35mph)56km/h
Vector changed from 270.3°West@25.8mph(41.5km/h) to 272.8°West@25.8mph(41.5km/h)

POS-Trinidad :: GND-Grenada :: BGI-Barbados :: SLU-St.Lucia

The easternmost dot on the connected;omes is where 92L became AL07
The next dot to the right is where AL07 became TD.7
The easternmost dot on the longest line is TD.7's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TD.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach (within 18miles or 29 kilometres) to a coastline
9August6pmGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over GrantleyAdamsInternationalAirport (bottomBGIblob)
10August12amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over Bathsheba (middleBGIblob)
10August6amGMT: TD.7 had been headed for passage over HighCliffPoint (topGNDdumbbell)
10August12pmGMT: 10August12pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over LittleBay (topBGIblob)
10August6pmGMT: TD.7 was heading for passage over LinnisPoint,Dennery(town) in ~23hours from now (when this comment was posted)

Copy&paste pos-10.595n61.023w, bgi-13.09n59.457w-13.198n59.488w-13.31n59.579w, gnd-12.191n61.602w,slu,axa, 13.7n41.7w-13.7n42.9w, 13.7n42.9w-13.7n44.6w, 13.7n44.6w-13.6n46.3w, 13.6n46.3w-13.6n48.6w, 13.6n48.6w-13.7n50.9w, 13.6n48.6w-13.89n60.883w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
724. yoboi
storms are headed south bond into setex/swla