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Little change to TD 15; new Caribbean distubance gathering strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:10 PM GMT on October 13, 2008

Tropical Depression Fifteen continues to move little as it spins over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft has just arrived, and found a 1001 mb central pressure at 5:47 pm EDT, and top surface winds of 35-40 mph. Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059 is in the heavy thunderstorm region to the east of TD 15's center, and recorded sustained winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon. Satellite loops show the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased some this afternoon. However, the heaviest thunderstorms now lie very close to the center of circulation, a sign the storm is getting more organized. Wind shear has fallen to a moderate 10-15 knots over TD 15, allowing this increased organization to occur. Radar from Puerto Rico and the Netherlands Antilles shows that the rain area is poorly organized, with no spiral rain bands evident. Dominican Republic radar was down this afternoon.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of TD 15.

The track forecast for TD 15
The storm is expected to move little through Tuesday afternoon. An upper-level trough of low pressure is forecast to position itself to the north of Puerto Rico by Tuesday afternoon, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this trough should draw TD 15 to the northeast across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or the eastern Dominican Republic on Wednesday or Thursday. There are considerable timing variations between the models. The fastest model is the GFDL, which predicts a Wednesday morning landfall in Puerto Rico. The slower NOGAPS and UKMET models predict a Thursday morning landfall. If a Wednesday landfall occurs, it would probably be as a tropical storm with 50-60 mph winds. A landfall delayed until Thursday would allow a stronger storm to develop, and TD 15 could be a Category 1 hurricane in this case. Up to five inches of rain has already fallen over the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico (Figure 2), but the heaviest rains have retreated to the south for the time being. Heavy rains are likely to develop over these islands again on Tuesday, and move into the eastern Dominican Republic and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Additional rain amounts of 5-10 inches are likely over some of these regions. Over Puerto Rico, isolated rain amounts in excess of 20 inches are possible before the storm clears the islands by Thursday. It currently appears that Haiti will only get 1-2 inches of rain from TD 15.


Figure 2. Current radar-estimated rainfall from TD 15.

The intensity forecast for TD 15
Wind shear is expected to remain in the moderate 10-20 knot range over the next three days, and waters will remain warm, 29°C. This should allow TD 15 to intensify into a tropical storm by Tuesday. The HWRF and GFDL models both intensify TD 15 into a Category 1 hurricane before it hits Puerto Rico on Wednesday. This seems overly aggressive, given the moderate 10-20 knots of wind shear expected. I'm expecting Thursday will be the earliest that TD 15 will become a hurricane.

Links to follow
Puerto Rico radar
Eastern Caribbean buoy 42059
San Juan, Puerto Rico weather

Disturbance 99L off the coast of Nicaragua
An area of disturbed weather (99L) has formed in the Southwest Caribbean, off the coast of Nicaragua. An ASCAT pass from 11:28 am EDT showed a circulation center developing near 14N 83W, about 100 miles offshore from Puerto Cabeza, Nicaragua. The pressure there was 1005 mb and falling at 3 pm EDT today. The region is under low wind shear, 5-10 knots. Satellite loops show a moderate area of heavy thunderstorms that is increasing in areal coverage and intensity. Heavy rain has moved into extreme northeast Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras.

The forecast for 99L
Most of the models forecast development of a tropical depression in this region by Wednesday. The system is expected to track northwest, just off the coast of Central America, until Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure is expected to build in, forcing 99L to the west. It currently appears that the center of 99L will remain over water, which should allow the storm to intensify into a tropical storm by Wednesday. Wind shear is forecast to remain low, 5-10 knots, for the rest of the week. As long as the center remains over water more than 50 miles from land and does not stall out, intensification should occur. The system will likely bring 5-10 inches of rain to northern Honduras tonight through Thursday, potentially causing flash flooding and destructive mudslides. Heavy rains may also spread over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday afternoon. It is 40% likely that the counterclockwise flow of air around the storm will grow large and strong enough to tap the Pacific Ocean as a source of moisture, triggering very heavy rains of 10-15 inches along the Pacific coasts of northern Costa Rica and Nicaragua Tuesday through Thursday. Rains of this magnitude are capable of causing severe flooding and life-threatening mudslides. By Thursday, 99L could be as far west as Belize (as forecast by the GFDL model), or wandering erratically in the Western Caribbean (as forecast by the NOGAPS model). Heavy rains will likely begin affecting Belize, northern Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula beginning on Wednesday. If the storm is large enough, if will also bring heavy rains to the Pacific coasts of Honduras and El Salvador beginning on Wednesday. No models are currently forecasting a threat to the U.S. in the coming seven days from 99L.


Figure 3. Current satellite image of 99L.

Nana and the child of Nana
Tropical Depression Nana, over the middle Atlantic Ocean, is being torn apart by wind shear of 30-40 knots. A small vortex near 13N, 42W (90L) that was part of the original disturbance that developed into Nana, has developed its own cluster of heavy thunderstorms. The circulation of this "child of Nana" is apparent on this morning's ASCAT pass, which noted top winds of 25 mph on the south side. The child of Nana is south of the region of high wind shear affecting Nana, in a region where the shear is only 5-10 knots. Nana should be able to pull its child northwestward into the higher shear region on Tuesday, but this may be enough time for the child of Nana to develop into a tropical depression.


Figure 4. Current satellite image of 90L, the Child of Nana.

Hurricane Ike relief efforts: Monday 10/13/08 update
From StormJunkie's blog today: Portlight.org is currently preparing the next push of supplies to head to the forgotten populations and disabilities community along the Texas Gulf Coast. Due to the exceptional pricing that U-haul has given us on trucks we have found the cheapest way to transport these goods is to continue to utilize our U-haul deal to transport these goods. We will be delivering many items to these outlying communities early to mid next week. Look for updates on this trip as it happens!

Some of the supplies that are being delivered include 50 manual wheel chairs that were specifically requested by the Houston Mayor of Disabilities. We have also received items from Coleman and Dick's Sporting goods which will be on the truck. A pallet of tents has also been donated by an anonymous person. Some quantity of socks has also been donated. As we receive and secure more items we will continue to update. In the mean time, if any have connections that may be able to help us acquire some of the following items; your timely help is greatly appreciated.


Figure 5. These are the supplies that were shipped.

Contributions to the portlight.org charity fund are fully tax-deductible, and will go to provide relief supplies for those smaller communities typically bypassed by the traditional relief efforts. More details can be found at StormJunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

QS(HR)
15

99
Good night folks,

Guess I will wait to see what the morning brings.
convection seems to be increasing in 99L
So, a slight shift west. And very slow movement expected.
Curiouser and curiouser......
Quoting SSideBrac:


1st post lost (I think). Your thoughts on 99L as far as Caytman is concerned - a rain event?


Lots of rain already. Pouring here now. Convection refiring with 99L and would not be surprised to see a big blow up overnight. Might be more than a rain event
Great, QS got it this time .
507. 7544
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
convection seems to be increasing in 99L


dmax should set the stage for 99l tonight and if it gets further north it could ri before getting into the gulf anyone agree /
the ? is will this take a wilma track like the hwrf is hinting . will the rest of the models follow soon ?
99L

Classic anticyclonic signature aloft. Very conducive for development.
My update for TD15 and 99L:

I won't expect much from TD15 yet as current SFC analysis don't are not showing strong enough winds at the SFC... only some 15 to 20kts. Is currently fighting shear being caused by 99L and enhanced a bit by the developing ULL to the N. Due to the nature of this ULL... I would expect the nature of this possible T.S. system to be of an enlongated one from SW to NE. If the COC stays shallow and if the deep convection keeps getting blown off I would expect this one to miss the trough as it won't feel enough atmosphere to start moving NE to ENE.

In regards 99L... I'm leaning towards this system to meander very close to the Nicaragua and Belize coast lines. Based on models trends and now the 00Z NAM... that the High currently on the E CONUS and building south will loose its punch in 48 to 72hr... not saying that it won't go away but it will be weaker and a weakness to open in the S GOM as the NOGAPS and ECMWF have been pointing out... between 90 and 100 degrees W.

These are my observations in regards the current situation with these systems and patterns depicted by models. We shall see how further ECMWF, NOGAPS, and GFS runs do on the 00Z outputs... unfortunately won't be up when they come out... but tomorrow is another day.

Have a nice evening.
510. KBH
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



Keeper you like you have other thoughts, where is TD15 going?
KMANISLANDER:

Blog is eating the post again so I'll try one more time.

Aparently based on this notice they are doing some equiptment upgrade. Perfect timing, huh?

From: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/

DATA STATUS :
(as of 14 Oct 2008 / 02:51UTC)

Due to a changeover to a new processing machine, some products and storms
in the Storm Coverage section may be temporarily unavailable.
td 15 looks like a paw print lol
Quoting kmanislander:


Lots of rain already. Pouring here now. Convection refiring with 99L and would not be surprised to see a big blow up overnight. Might be more than a rain event
i feel the same way here 99l far from dying its refireing and this is going to be one to watch
Yeah, keep an eye on that Kman. ( not that you wont...)
Quoting RobDaHood:
KMANISLANDER:

Blog is eating the post again so I'll try one more time.

Aparently based on this notice they are doing some equiptment upgrade. Perfect timing, huh?

From: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/

DATA STATUS :
(as of 14 Oct 2008 / 02:51UTC)

Due to a changeover to a new processing machine, some products and storms
in the Storm Coverage section may be temporarily unavailable.


Thanks. Saw that.
Noticed the paw print a little earlier. Yesterday was the puppies face and now his paw. Hope it's not an omen that TD15 is going to leave his prints on the Caribbean.
Not good....
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
COMPARED TO SIX HOURS AGO THE GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WESTWARD...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE CYCLONE
WILL BE CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS NOW
SHOW THE CYCLONE BEING LEFT BEHIND BY THIS FEATURE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AT THE LONGER RANGES AND IS
IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF. THE HWRF AND GFDL ARE MUCH
SLOWER BRINGING THE SYSTEM OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CONSEQUENTLY
ARE EVEN FARTHER TO THE LEFT.


When I read this part of the NHC statement I was totally puzzled b/c the models look like they shifted to the East compared to early today... Anyone have any explanation for why their statement would not match up with the models (or am I remembering wrong)? If it does not get picked up by the low does that mean it will not turn to the NE? Thanks!
Just seen on your graphic - TY.
Still dry on the Brac but very cloudy and cool - distant lightning off to S and SE. Hope the tunder etc waits till tomorrow day as I can never sleep with those sizzlers getting closer along the iron shore
For all PRican folks, this is a tread for us 98l will be Omar streagthen coming in (All models show's that) and will bring stormy conditions Wenesday buy some stuff tomorow and prepare for at least a week with out power and potable water. We has been so lucky these past seasons.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
QS(HR)
15

99


99 looks like the giants in a huddle
Quoting antonio28:
For all PRican folks, this is a tread for us 98l will be Omar streagthen coming in (All models show's that) and will bring stormy conditions Wenesday buy some stuff tomorow and prepare for at least a week with out power and potable water. We has been so lucky these past seasons.

u mean td 15 not 98L
i all soo like too point out that 99L is starting too look a lot better and fast
i was just about to post that TAZ
Quoting Tazmanian:
i all soo like too point out that 99L is starting too look a lot better and fast



ditto that taz-

overnight lookout
omar at 5am
From Caribwx on 99L-TROF expected to lie diagonally from NE Caribbean to SW Caribbean should not establish early-enough to cause NE-E motion of any feature that develops thru mid-week...so, if LO develops thru tomorrow, I'd have to go with a GFS track near Coasts of Nicaragua-Honduras-Belize. Interests from Jamaica & all of Cuba W-ward throughout NW Caribbean should monitor this potential system
Quoting kmanislander:


Lots of rain already. Pouring here now. Convection refiring with 99L and would not be surprised to see a big blow up overnight. Might be more than a rain event
theres more coming

T.C.F.A. is highly likely with this system 99l as dynamics and overall structure is showing this at this time it appears to show me a track n then nw to yuc then ne after that but ull coming down needs to do what it got to do this may end up being a bit of a hat trick if it does not work out as planned
Quoting dewdana:


When I read this part of the NHC statement I was totally puzzled b/c the models look like they shifted to the East compared to early today... Anyone have any explanation for why their statement would not match up with the models (or am I remembering wrong)? If it does not get picked up by the low does that mean it will not turn to the NE? Thanks!
STORMWATCHERCI i tried that url but did not get it can u post it again
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
From Caribwx on 99L-TROF expected to lie diagonally from NE Caribbean to SW Caribbean should not establish early-enough to cause NE-E motion of any feature that develops thru mid-week...so, if LO develops thru tomorrow, I'd have to go with a GFS track near Coasts of Nicaragua-Honduras-Belize. Interests from Jamaica & all of Cuba W-ward throughout NW Caribbean should monitor this potential system


in other words...

all interests should monitor everthing.....*crowd roars!*
www.weatherincayman.com gives you all the local info and a link to Naval Research
My badest fear TD15 is building an antyciclonic and it is stationary that equal rapin streaghten, now the model intensity is taken sence.
99L is reminding me of wilma!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol, jk, but can you guys imagine?
cool got it thanks!
Wilma Oct 15-25 2005
Blog ate my response. Was going to say that the models didnt look farther west to me either.
Td15 appears to have drifted even further south,99L appears to be organizing fast.
541. 7544
99l could take a wilma track but not as strong as wilma was maybe a cat 1 tho we have to see what happens at dmax it could be a rapid int. system
Hello everyone.......wow i just logged on and have we got active or what.....wow
yes tampa just a little
lots of thunder & lightning& rain here in South Sound ,Grand Cayman,rain has eased abit in the last few minutes,hope its not a forboding of things to come.
well guys i am calling it a night check back in the AM hope i am wrong on 99l, g-night all
AT 0000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION (22) OVER THE WESTERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 18.6N 108.0E AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS.
Everyone have a good night,we'll see what tomorrow brings.
548. 7544
blog is acting up again YAWNNNNNNNNNNN
Thank you Portlight.org for the update:)
Hi Tim, good game
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Depression ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana

Tropical Depression ... 15 (Omar)
Hurricane Hunters TD 15 (Omar) ... Tracks and Vortex reports
Present Satellite picture ... TD 15 (Omar)

Invest ... 99L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 99L

Invest ... 90L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 90L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
I wasn't planning on using all of my prediction before the end of October :(

My predictions for the rest of the Season
(uneducated guess as of October 1, 2008)

2-3 TD/TS
1-2 Cat 1
1 Major

hey taz - check the latest sat on 99. explosive
Quoting voortex:

hey taz - check the latest sat on 99. explosive

i think he left for the night voortex
Orca...It is so good to see that you are alive and kicking. I was worried that you had eaten too much turkey.

When trying foreign foods, one must always remember moderation.

A day or two of blubber and carribou and you'll be right as rain.

This dam blog is eating everything....
558. KBH
It seems that the probability of TD15 shifting further south is increasing, so I will add my guesstimate of those odds also increasing by tomorrow morning,later
Morning all.

Seems the claims we have Omar are yet unfounded, though seemingly a matter of when rather than if.
Is it just me or is Nana and it's child (90L) doing the fujiwhara effect. Look for yourself!
Quoting weatherblog:
Is it just me or is Nana and it's child (90L) doing the fujiwhara effect. Look for yourself!


I noticed this early this evening. 90L is riding along the eastern periphery of Nana's larger circulation, and because of this, the two will likely undergo a Fujiwhara Interaction. Even if this doesn't occur, and 90L ends up surviving as a separate entity, northerly shear along the eastern flank of the trough that's supposed to recurve TD15/Omar to Puerto Rico will bring 10-20 knots of northerly shear to 90L, hindering its chances for development.

All in all, I don't expect development from 90L.
562. Enola
The blog is calm tonight? Good. Hope everyone is snug and safe. Denver may see 25F tonight - no more garden :(

Orca, I hope you're feeling better.
Quoting Enola:
The blog is calm tonight? Good. Hope everyone is snug and safe. Denver may see 25F tonight - no more garden :(

Orca, I hope you're feeling better.


Very quiet, it seems. Although 500 posts in 12 hours still approaches a post a minute.

Brr 25. I haven't felt 25 degrees since the 80s!

A turn to my left and see that the outside temperature is 82.9, and at dewpoint. Very sticky.


...NANA DISSIPATES...

REPEATING THE 500 AM EDT POSITION...18.4 N...43.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

..DEPRESSION SPREADING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...14.3 N...69.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

99L:

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF IT REMAINS OVER
WATER. A SLOW MOTION TO THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT
THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND
BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

90L:
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NANA AND APPROXIMATELY 1100 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS
SYSTEM WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

Names remaining:
* Omar (unused)
* Paloma (unused)
* Rene (unused)
* Sally (unused)
* Teddy (unused)
* Vicky (unused)
* Wilfred (unused)

'The current active hurricane era began in 1995. Hurricane seasons during 1995- 2007 have averaged 14.5 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes.'

Seasons since upturn in AMO...

'95: 19 storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 majors.
'96: 13 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 majors.
'97: 7 storms, 3 hurricanes, 1 major.
'98: 14 storms, 10 hurricanes, 3 majors.
'99: 12 storms, 8 hurricanes, 5 majors.
'00: 14 storms, 8 hurricanes, 3 majors.
'01: 15 storms, 9 hurricanes, 4 majors.
'02: 12 storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 majors.
'03: 16 storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 majors.
'04: 14 storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 majors.
'05: 28 storms, 15 hurricanes, 7 majors.
'06: 10 storms, 5 hurricanes, 2 majors.
'07: 15 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 majors.

2008 is well on its way of being one of the most active seasons in this current stage. The AMO has a predicted end anywhere between 2015 and 2035 (Though some attribute Global Warming and lack of understanding about the phenomenon to a possible 2050 end.)
568. Enola
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


A turn to my left and see that the outside temperature is 82.9, and at dewpoint. Very sticky.

Just had to rub it in, eh? lol
Cold and a little damp for Denver. Nice pneumonia weather.
NHC on TD 15 "Depression is nearing Tropical Storm Strength"
Some of the coldest cloud tops I've ever seen in the Atlantic.


~It looks plain evil.
572. IKE
Tropical season over here....

Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s.

Saturday Night
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday
Sunny. Highs in the mid 70s.
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning all.

Seems the claims we have Omar are yet unfounded, though seemingly a matter of when rather than if.


Read NHC discussion, its getting close.
I find it very hard to believe that this "recurvature" is gonna happen with TD15. It's not even moving northwest! It's moving southeast. If things don't change with the motion, expect 15 to slide under that trough and head westward as climatology would favor it. 99L is basically TD16, NHC not recognizing this yet, look at it guys, it's a TD! The hurricane forecast models are starting to switch to my idea, towards Cuba.. In all due respect to Florida, southern floridians may want to watch this one and TD15 if the "unexpected" happens. Oh btw IKE, wait till November first before you put the clear on us :).
575. IKE
Quoting reedzone:
I find it very hard to believe that this "recurvature" is gonna happen with TD15. It's not even moving northwest! It's moving southeast. If things don't change with the motion, expect 15 to slide under that trough and head westward as climatology would favor it. 99L is basically TD16, HC not recognizing this yet, look at it guys, it's a TD! The hurricane forecast models are starting to switch to my idea, towards Cuba.. In all due respect to Florida, southern floridians may want to watch this one and TD15 if the "unexptected" happens. Oh btw IKE, wait till November first before you put the clear on us :).


I'm not putting the clear on you, I am on me.

I live in the Florida panhandle...and yes, season over here. Lows in the 40's and highs in the lower 70's....OVER!
576. IKE
Extended from Miami,FL...

"Extended...Friday through Monday...as the middle/upper ridge breaks down
and moves west...a deep trough develops over the east U.S. Friday with a
real life front expected to move through S fla Sat.
Minimal temperature
changes are expected but the relative humidity will be lower and probability of precipitation...if any
..will be minimal.".........


Front clears south Florida.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Read NHC discussion, its getting close.


000
NOUS42 KNHC 131530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT MON 13 OCTOBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z OCTOBER 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-135

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF COAST OF NICARAGUA)
FLIGHT 0NE -- TEAL 75
A. 14/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST
C. 14/1600Z
D. 15.0N 82.0W
E. 14/1930Z TO 14/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 15/1800Z
NEAR 16.5N AND 83.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 14/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0215A CYCLONE
C. 14/1530Z
D. 15.7N 69.5W
E. 14/1700Z TO 14/2030Z
F. SCF TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 70
A. 15/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0315A CYCLONE
C. 15/0400Z
D. 16.5N 68.2W
E. 15/0500Z TO 15/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
4. SUCCEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Looking like we may get TD16 and Omar today. I don't think they'll update either till recon is in, unless satellite really shows something up.

Guess the next is in a couple of hours or so.
My newest animation compiled from the GOES East satellite imagery has been uploaded to YouTube and can be watched in high quality.

Click here to see the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation from July - September 2008.

Enjoy!

Oz---
579. IKE
Latest GFS takes 99L into the Belize area. No threat for Florida....

Takes TD15 across Puerto Rico and then NE out into the north Atlantic graveyard. Doesn't show a stall as much w/TD15 on this run. Maybe the flood threat won't be as high with TD15...06Z GFS
580. ackee
seem 99L ha gotten more convection what chance syetem makes a more NE or E movemet
Quoting CycloneBoz:
My newest animation compiled from the GOES East satellite imagery has been uploaded to YouTube and can be watched in high quality.

Click here to see the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation from July - September 2008.

Enjoy!

Oz---


Brian, did you do the original set for the 2005 one? From Arlene to Epsilon?

Can't find it on YT anymore.
So is this true?

TD 15 will become a tropical storm at 11am. I mean they found ts winds, right?
Good Morning...

Looks like DMAX is helping these 2 develop some deep convection.
Good morning all!



MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF VORTEX MOVED W INTO W BAY OF CAMPECHE
ALLOWING BROAD ANTICYCLONE OVER ERN CONUS TO MOVE OVER SE
STATES. TROUGH ALOFT FROM VORTEX TO NE GULF AND ACROSS N
FLORIDA BECOME E-W ORIENTED ACROSS SW N ATLC. TROUGH FORCED
S BY RIDGE MOVING OVER SE STATES BRINGS DRY AIR MASS ALL
THE WAY S TO 25N BY THU BEFORE STALLING THEN DRIFT E OUT OF
FORECAST AREA FRI.

ANTICYCLONIC GYRE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS OUTFLOW OVER LOW
PRES CENTER NEAR 15N82W ENHANCING ITS CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT...
ALBEIT ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN NEAR
14N69W COMPLICATES SCENARIO BY FORCING THE EXTENSION OF RIDGE
EASTWARD. HOW MUCH THE OUTFLOW OF ONE LOW PRES AFFECT THE OTHER
BRINGS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY OF
EITHER ONE.

MID LATITUDE SHORTWAVE MOVE E FROM CENTRAL UNITED STATES TO E
COAST AND BRING BROAD TROUGH TO AREA N OF 25N FROM 70W-85W SAT.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
TODAY AND DRIFT NE ACROSS PUERTO RICO WED NIGHT THEN INTENSIFY
TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER TROPICAL ATLC THU NIGHT.
REFER TO NHC ADVISORIES UNDER MIATCMAT4 AND MIATCDAT4 FOR
DETAILS.

LOW PRES OVER WRN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N82W EXPECTED TO DRIFT N THEN
SHIFT W INTO GULF OF HONDURAS. SIMILARLY TO INTENSITY...
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF
TWO SYSTEMS SO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.
GUIDANCE SPLIT IN TIMING
AND POSITION BUT FORECAST FOLLOW THE BULK OF CONSENSUS MODELS.

COLD FRONT MOVE OFF N GULF COAST LATE FRI AND MOVE RAPIDLY
ACROSS N GULF EXTENDING FROM N CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SAT.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
586. Enola
Quoting CycloneBoz:
My newest animation compiled from the GOES East satellite imagery has been uploaded to YouTube and can be watched in high quality.

Click here to see the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation from July - September 2008.

Enjoy!

Oz---

Wow...amazing! Thank you!
587. Relix
Definitively we will have TS Omar at 8AM. I am kinda glad to say it's been drifting SE and the models agree that it will spare a direct impact to PR since most convection is to the east,k but darn I feel bad for the people at the VI. Still gonna see how this plays out. Morning to all!
588. IKE
Quoting Relix:
Definitively we will have TS Omar at 8AM. I am kinda glad to say it's been drifting SE and the models agree that it will spare a direct impact to PR since most convection is to the east,k but darn I feel bad for the people at the VI. Still gonna see how this plays out. Morning to all!



Spare a direct impact?

Wednesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Variably cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 80 lower elevations ranging to 68 higher elevations. North winds 55 to 65 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
What I don't understant is that it's still a depression yet the pressure is 1001 mb, which is usually for ts.
590. IKE
Coastal low develops off of the east coast this weekend according to the latest GFS. TD15...gone...by then. Invest 99L....history by then....

591. Relix
Quoting IKE:



Spare a direct impact?

Wednesday Night
Tropical storm conditions possible. Variably cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 80 lower elevations ranging to 68 higher elevations. North winds 55 to 65 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.


I am feeling optimist, I am sorry =(. I like the build up of a storm in my vicinity but I hate the affects and the aftermath is just horrible. But why is the chance of rain so low? It's a freaking storm for God's sake =P.
What I don't understant is that it's still a depression yet the pressure is 1001 mb, which is usually for ts


It is not organized well enough.

The TS force winds are too far from the COC.
They will name it some time today due to proximity to land and future track.
Based on the current SFC/Ships obs... TD15 will be a TD for a while longer. DMAX is helping boost the convection for both of these 2 systems but TD15 won't be quite there yet... I believe may be tonight if its able to shake OFF 99L shear and the SW shear induced by the developing trough to the N.

As 585. Vortfix posted... the Outflow of 99L are proving to produce an environment of uncertainty.

Heck even some global models at the 00Z outputs are having a bit of problem figuring this one out.
594. IKE
Morning discussion from San Juan....

"For now this will be a slow progression feature...however the local
environment remains very moist and unstable for late morning and
afternoon convection...and there is still the problem of the bands
from the outer fringes reaching the islands and enhancing shower
activity...leading to heavy rainfall and flooding into the evening
hours today...then followed by increasing wind of 35 to 60 miles per hour or
more occurring across the local islands by late Wednesday morning
and continuing at least through Thursday...with potential for wind
damage and power outages."
seems they are effecting each other should prevent one from getting really dangerous
Quoting Cotillion:


Brian, did you do the original set for the 2005 one? From Arlene to Epsilon?

Can't find it on YT anymore.


I had a mirror site with the animation on Google!

Click here to see the 2005 Hurricane Season Animation as compiled from the GOES East satellite.

Enjoy!

Oz---
they found the ts winds in heavy rain bands so thats the reason that nhc can not conf. it is a ts
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
What I don't understant is that it's still a depression yet the pressure is 1001 mb, which is usually for ts.


Pressure aren't directly linked to category.

Hanna had a pressure of 978mb yet was still a tropical storm at the time. (Possibly a Cat 1, can't recall.) 978mb is usually a Cat 2, of a moderate intensity.

Fay had a 986mb reading, which is usually a moderate Cat 1, yet never attained that intensity.

Ike had a very low mb reading for a long time, but the winds never caught up. Overall, it's just been one of those years where pressure needs to be lower than normal to correlate with the winds usually attributed to such.

Last year, it was more the other way round, with high pressure TS like Gabby but a wind speed sustained of around 60mph. (For 1004mb.)

Felix had a lowest rating of 929mb, usually a Cat 4, yet it was a moderate-strong Cat 5.

It varies, depends on the environment.
Quoting CycloneBoz:


I had a mirror site with the animation on Google!

Click here to see the 2005 Hurricane Season Animation as compiled from the GOES East satellite.

Enjoy!

Oz---


Thanks very much. Aside the fact the videos were very interesting and well put together, the music choice seems inspired.

May I ask what the backing tracks were for the two videos you linked? Quite atmospheric.
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF
TWO SYSTEMS SO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.



This is what I have been concerned about since they declared 99L.
There is no definite believable tracking for 99L yet and quite possibly TD 15 will have a problem now depending on what the eventual set up is.
601. IKE
Strong shear on TD15...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

ALTHOUGH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING THAT THE
SYSTEM IS NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
SINCE THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE AREA. THEREFORE THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE. THE
CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION...INDICATIVE OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 091500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:46 N Lon : 69:11:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.4 / 995.2mb/ 53.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.4 3.5 4.4


Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -78.0C Cloud Region Temp : -77.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

--

The ADT seems to like it.
603. IKE
Looks like 90L makes it into the Caribbean according to the latest GFS.
90l in the carib doubt it
Quoting Cotillion:


Thanks very much. Aside the fact the videos were very interesting and well put together, the music choice seems inspired.

May I ask what the backing tracks were for the two videos you linked? Quite atmospheric.


For the 2005 Hurricane Season video, I created a seemless loop of the instrumental "Lucifer by The Alan Parsons Project" I also threw in some wind and thunder effects.

For the July - September 2008 animation, I used the original theme from Batman in honor of Dr. Master's Joker storm, Fay...and of course, my old standby...the theme from Jurassic Park.
606. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
90l in the carib doubt it



Quoting vortfix:
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SUSPICIOUS GIVEN THE COMPLEX NATURE OF
TWO SYSTEMS SO CLOSE TO EACH OTHER.



This is what I have been concerned about since they declared 99L.
There is no definite believable tracking for 99L yet and quite possibly TD 15 will have a problem now depending on what the eventual set up is.


I have to agree... even though I just like to think that GFS has it nailed... I will have to say that GFS recent performance on these past weeks have been poor vs. towards the begining of the season when it was doing rather well.

Latest forecast models are actually "fighting" over each other in regards which one will be come the dominant Cyclone. Its just a matter to see which one gives in first.

I would like to wait until the 12Z outputs come out to see what happens.

Look at the latest spagetti plots and you'll see that even HWRF is starting to diverge along with other models:

Link
Quoting CycloneBoz:


For the 2005 Hurricane Season video, I created a seemless loop of the instrumental "Lucifer by The Alan Parsons Project" I also threw in some wind and thunder effects.

For the July - September 2008 animation, I used the original theme from Batman in honor of Dr. Master's Joker storm, Fay...and of course, my old standby...the theme from Jurassic Park.


Righty, thanks very much!
Mornin Brian.
Right....the HWRF is having second thoughts.
Even the TVCN....:


Photobucket


TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)
thanks for the model post ike. thats interesting.
Quoting vortfix:
Right....the HWRF is having second thoughts.
Even the TVCN....:


Photobucket


TVCN - Consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (replaces old CONU model)


Hah. 99L takes one look at Belize and hightails it the other direction.
613. IKE
You can see the low north of Bermuda that should pick up TD15...Link
Thats pretty much a "done deal" that the the low north of Bermauda will take 15D up and out right?
Hey Doug! :)

Getting ready for some snow here today in Los Alamos! [ACK!]

I hope all is well for you and your family in good, ol' Pensacola today.

I'm probably two weeks away from re-releasing my Hurricane Dolly video to YouTube.

Nothin' else goin' on. Work looms! :)
06Z NAM has been trending towards 99L becoming the dominant Cyclone and has been consistant at it since 18Z.

I'm giving a bit more credit this time towards it trends since it was able to successfully forecast cyclogenesis on TD15 for a long time... this excluding actual cyclogenesis location.

One thing that is helping validate my though is that Mets. in FL specially those in MLB have been found themselves backing away from GFS and using ECMWF and in some instances a blend of it because GFS has been too strong with High pressure systems and some Lows... so we shall see.

This is just my explanation onto one of the reasons I would rather get confirmation from other models.
617. IKE
Looks like a 2nd front early next week according to the extended discussion from Knoxville,TN area....

"Long term (friday night through monday)...
upper trough continues east across the Appalachians driving surface
system off the East Coast. Cooler and dry weather in store behind
departing front on Saturday. Flat Ridge builds toward the region on
Sunday with temperatures rebounding a few degrees. Maintained dry
forecast through Monday as GFS/European model (ecmwf) hint at possible shortwave
trough dropping southeast across the northern and central
Appalachians later Tuesday."
618. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Thats pretty much a "done deal" that the the low north of Bermauda will take 15D up and out right?


Odds are...yes.
Skii season looms! Hope to get out there this year. The economy being what it is....who knows.
Good Morning Early Birds-peeking in -waiting for the sun to rise b/4 I go for my AM run --certainly better reading then the newspaper. Glad to see Nana croaking, hoping PR doesn't get too soaked and it's not looking like 99L is a threat to FL, but no surf waves for the gomex either.. (better not to have the cane) now that I'm updated -- I'm off--still pretty dark out there, going have to look out for holes, mad dogs and englishmen LOL..LOL See you all later
Hey Doug...

I'm expecting you to join me next year on one of my hurricane hunts.

You've got alot of time to get some gear!

Buy a riot police helmet, Mustand 3085D life vest and some baseball catchers gear. Don't forget a pair of really good tennis shoes. [I use a lucky pair of Reeboks that really hold their ground.]

No excuses! I'll bring all the other gear and some MREs so we won't starve.
Quoting WxLogic:
06Z NAM has been trending towards 99L becoming the dominant Cyclone and has been consistant at it since 18Z.

I'm giving a bit more credit this time towards it trends since it was able to successfully forecast cyclogenesis on TD15 for a long time... this excluding actual cyclogenesis location.

One thing that is helping validate my though is that Mets. in FL specially those in MLB have been found themselves backing away from GFS and using ECMWF and in some instances a blend of it because GFS has been too strong with High pressure systems and some Lows... so we shall see.

This is just my explanation onto one of the reasons I would rather get confirmation from other models.



T
hose of us that have been doing the tropics for a while have learned that there is no "favorite" model or one better than the other.
On any given day any model can be wrong...or right!

I always look for the reason a model is pointing in a certain direction...the feature that is causing it to go one way or the other.
That is what it's all about with the models.
They're just tools...when you understand the mechanics of weather then you can intelligently use the models to back up what you see and believe will happen.

That's the difference between just being a model reader and a forecaster.
Good Morning all

Question, All season long the storms went from east to west, now suddenly they are going from west to east. Or am I just out to lunch here? Why? Is this normal?
BTW did anyone here find it a little silly that NANA got named while the storm that hit the Carolins didn't?
My wife'll kill me Brian, Unless I pull a fast one....LOL
Quoting Autistic2:
Good Morning all

Question, All season long the storms went from east to west, now suddenly they are going from west to east. Or am I just out to lunch here? Why? Is this normal?


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_06Z.gif

High is blocking the movement west.
99l and 15D are alot more deserving {IMO} than NANA ever was. Heck 90L too for that matter.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
BTW did anyone here find it a little silly that NANA got named while the storm that hit the Carolins didn't?


Whether that Carolinas storm existed or not, still think it's silly Nana was named.
629. JLPR
wow Td15 looks amazing =S
I am amazed that it is still a TD maybe when I come back at 2PM it will be Omar =\
630. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Skii season looms! Hope to get out there this year. The economy being what it is....who knows.


I was up in Andalusia,AL. yesterday afternoon....

3 things....

(1)Crimson Tide fans.
(2)John McCain country.
(3)$2.87 a gallon for gas!!!!! OMG!
it will be harder to pull on each individual system as they are pulling on each. cant wait to see dr masters post
632. IKE
Nana...

622. vortfix - Definitely...
Quoting leftovers:
it will be harder to pull on each individual system as they are pulling on each. cant wait to see dr masters post


You got that right... hehe. He should have something out shortly for us. I'm pretty sure he's pulling his hairs out trying to figure things out a bit.
636. IKE
90L....maybe another storm in the making...

remember the cyclone in the indiam ocean that made landfall in burma. that was a freak. bertha fay on and on and now twins in the carib. maybe this is what is going to happen in the age of global warming. stock mkt guys good luck
Well, Good Morning all.
TD 15 is proving to be another jokey trickster so far. Not conforming at all, to the rules and doing its own thing. Thats great ! Gives everyone a chance to practice their tracking/forecasting skills.
I must say, yesterday I could not go with the N/E idea. Today, so far, I am still dubious.........
ok ADT shows this storm closer to a hurricane then a tropical depression now

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 OCT 2008 Time : 101500 UTC
Lat : 14:17:16 N Lon : 69:09:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 994.3mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
3.5 3.8 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.3mb

Center Temp : -71.0C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



this should at least be a 50 mph TS right now
640. IKE
TD15 and 99L...my guess, they both get named.
Quoting leftovers:
remember the cyclone in the indiam ocean that made landfall in burma. that was a freak. bertha fay on and on and now twins in the carib. maybe this is what is going to happen in the age of global warming.


Nargis... -shudder-. That was the storm of the year.

As long as we don't get this...
Conditions in Curacao--
Wind WSW 18 mph
Pressure 1005.
Rain.
Everyone gone back to bed ??
635 - Stormchaser

That looks like an MRI of my cat, 17 pounder with a bad attitude. Knocked something over at 0530 this morning, haven't found it yet. LOL
Morning Everyone...

Oh. I see what happened. Someone mentioned Global Warming..........
LOL
Quoting Cotillion:


Nargis... -shudder-. That was the storm of the year.

As long as we don't get this...


I like to watch the sci-fi chanel somtimes (stargate) but would not like to see that. At those temps it would kill everthing in the ocean?
Morning Mel. Trust that you are having a sparkling one today ?
Quoting Cotillion:


Nargis... -shudder-. That was the storm of the year.

As long as we don't get this...

IMO, I don't think a Hypercane could possibly ever form in the Atlantic. Maybe in the West Pacific, but not the Atlantic. The Atlantic is way too small.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
800 AM AST TUE OCT 14 2008

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Tropical Depression ... Nana
Present Satellite picture ... Nana

Tropical Depression ... 15 (Omar)
Hurricane Hunters TD 15 (Omar) ... Tracks and Vortex reports
Present Satellite picture ... TD 15 (Omar)

Invest ... 99L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 99L

Invest ... 90L
Present Satellite picture ... Invest 90L

Present Satellite picture Caribbean
Present Satellite picture GOM
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
Present Satellite picture Large overall Coverage
CMC 00Z..
652. KBH
I was waiting for some official updates on TD15, but suppose not I wanted to see. It's still TD even though pressure is 1001mb, movement is SE and warning for Netherland Antilles..but still going towards PR later, what about warnings for the smaller caribbean islands.?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.

INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.


Those are all the warnings that have been issued.
They seem fairly confident in the eventual track....but I would keep my eye on this if I was in the islands.
Hi there KBH.
TD 15 is not following instructions. I think the forecasters are saying " well, I dont really know what to say " LOL
A trop. storm watch in PR and the Virgins, and the Neth. Antilles should keep an eye out............
Pretty vague forecast that.........
Same for TD15, no upgrade yet. Didn't think so, they'll wait till recon.
good morning

Two very interesting systems in the Caribbean. 99L may be stronger than currently estimated as Puerta Cabezas has a pressure of 1005 mb and NNW winds. It stands to reason that the pressure near the center of the system is somewhat lower to the East of there. From the shortwave loop the center looks to be near 15.5N and 82W. Hopefully Quikscat will give us a clean pass on it.

TD 15 is meandering around as is typical for late season Caribbean systems. The further S it drifts the greater the risk that is just sits, intensifies and gets left behind by the trough.

99L is also in no hurry to go anywhere by the looks of it and still lots of very warm water around.
Quoting pottery:
Morning Mel. Trust that you are having a sparkling one today ?


Completely wonderful day here...gotta love it - no rain and the temps are cool finally.

Heading off to school with my 14-year-old. Tired of her flunking mythology so I'm going to class WITH her. She's going to love it...

...how WHAT TO WEAR...

The current satpic of the Carribean has got to be the most impressive October shot that I know of and its getting better (or worse depending on you point of view) by the minute.

15D isn't named yet but they name NANA? I know which cloud mass I'd rather be under if I was on a boat.
Good morning to those who just said "Good Morning"... hehe...
Morning Thomas!!!!!
Quoting Autistic2:


I like to watch the sci-fi chanel somtimes (stargate) but would not like to see that. At those temps it would kill everthing in the ocean?


Not everything. Some organisms live at way beyond those temperatures already. (Some algae and bacteria living on the ocean floor near the vents, bringing up hot temperatures from the crust below.)

Quoting primez:

IMO, I don't think a Hypercane could possibly ever form in the Atlantic. Maybe in the West Pacific, but not the Atlantic. The Atlantic is way too small.


According to some, a hypercane has already happened, which is what killed the dinosaurs (I say apparently.) And the meteor/asteroid that supposedly did it was where the Yucatan is right now... which is in the Atlantic.

It's a theory, though it seems reasonable enough. That said, my link was more in jest than anything... GW isn't (Even with the most extreme predictions) going to get 15C above normal (for the tropics). Possibly 7C tops, and that'd be more at the poles, I'd guess.

For a hypercane to happen, the catalyst would need to be of an astronomical background, for example, a crashing meteor, the Sun's progression to a Red Giant... so on and so forth.
664. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN...LOCATED ABOUT 140 MILES NORTH OF CURACAO AND
ABOUT 360 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE FINAL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA...LOCATED
ABOUT 1175 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 60 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS
BORDER IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER
TODAY...IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WATER. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE ITS STRENGTH.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS
OF NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND BELIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DISSIPATED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NANA AND APPROXIMATELY 1125 MILES WEST OF THE
SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SYSTEM
WILL ENCOUNTER UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER STEWART

This is my concern...that high was supposed to push 99 to the NW eventually west...how will it impact on 15...anyone have any info on when that high will be building and how strong and how far west will it push?
Quoting kmanislander:
The area around 14.5N 68.5W is where the strongest winds are likely to be found in 15L as that is where the deepest convection is.

This is displaced to the SE from the area of lowest pressure found so far
and could be another set up that is conducive for the center to relocate further S into the deepest convection. If so, would the trough still pick it up or would it meander around and then feel the high pressure that will build in when the trough lifts out ??

This can be a crazy time of year track wise.
Morning Storm!
Quoting IKE:


I was up in Andalusia,AL. yesterday afternoon....

3 things....

(1)Crimson Tide fans.
(2)John McCain country.
(3)$2.87 a gallon for gas!!!!! OMG!


Ike Change is Coming!
668. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT 14/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 69.1W...OR ABOUT 315 NM...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 NM...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 2 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

A 1006 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT
50 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14.5N82W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N
80W AND 86W...TOUCHING PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N WEST OF 74W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME ISOLATED OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.

670. IKE
System out in the Atlantic(90L), may not amount to anything...

And morning to anyone who has just meandered in.

Coffee all round, lol?
Hi Kman. I would like to fast-forward to tomorow. These 2 are most strange. Not going to get a lot done today.........
Morning everyone
Quoting IKE:
Looks like a 2nd front early next week according to the extended discussion from Knoxville,TN area....

"Long term (friday night through monday)...
upper trough continues east across the Appalachians driving surface
system off the East Coast. Cooler and dry weather in store behind
departing front on Saturday. Flat Ridge builds toward the region on
Sunday with temperatures rebounding a few degrees. Maintained dry
forecast through Monday as GFS/European model (ecmwf) hint at possible shortwave
trough dropping southeast across the northern and central
Appalachians later Tuesday."


Are you going on a trip to Knoxville? I know some good places there:)


...Link

"Yes, yes you are."
Quoting Vero1:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 141152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2008

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN AT 14/1200 UTC IS NEAR
14.2N 69.1W...OR ABOUT 315 NM...580 KM...SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN
PUERTO RICO AND ABOUT 120 NM...225 KM...NORTH OF CURACAO. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING SOUTHEAST 2 KT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE EAST
AND THEN NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TODAY...WITH A SLOW INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT SPREADS HEAVY RAINS OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

A 1006 MB WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ABOUT
50 NM TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 14.5N82W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 13N TO 18N
80W AND 86W...TOUCHING PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH
OF 17N WEST OF 74W FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME ISOLATED OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATED.



WEll, they agree my estimate for the center but I think they are a little high on the pressure. If PC onshore Nic has 1005 it is a virtual certainty that offshore in the center the pressure is at least that or lower, more like 1004
678. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike Change is Coming!


If you mean weather...yes....

47 days...
16 hours...
58 minutes...
190 GFS and NOGAPS model runs, and it's OVER!
679. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Are you going on a trip to Knoxville? I know some good places there:)


I use to live there...great place to go!

Phillip Fulmer needs...

(1)To break away from the buffet line.
(2)A new job.
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman. I would like to fast-forward to tomorow. These 2 are most strange. Not going to get a lot done today.........


Tomorrow might look like today LOL
681. IKE
A sure sign it's fall here....acorns are falling off of the trees and hitting my roof about every 5-10 minutes. I took my dog out for some relief the other day and got hit on the head with one.
As if there was not already enough uncertainty, Quikscat places the center of TD 15 near 12N 70W !!. Go figure

Link
Quoting IKE:
A sure sign it's fall here....acorns are falling off of the trees and hitting my roof about every 5-10 minutes. I took my dog out for some relief the other day and got hit on the head with one.


Don't park your car near them though and watch out for rabid squirrels.
good morning everybody!
Hi Storm i wonder how much longer the CIMSS site will be down.....what a drag with this activity.......do you have anyother site that has the steering maps like this STormW.
WOW, that QS image is enough to make a man say WOW........
What goes on ????
Quoting pottery:
WOW, that QS image is enough to make a man say WOW........
What goes on ????


Drifting S all night it would seem
688. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Don't park your car near them though and watch out for rabid squirrels.


My car with 230,000+ miles on it...sits right underneath a tree. They roll off of the roof too and hit it. I should park it away from my house...lol.....***use brain***

There's squirrels everywhere out here...and rabbits...cats...turtles...gator in the lake...ducks...snakes...I've seen a deer or 2 close by...

Out-in-the-country.
That trough will have to dig much further S in order to pick up TD 15.

Not a good scenario setting up with that.
690. IKE
Quoting kmanislander:
As if there was not already enough uncertainty, Quikscat places the center of TD 15 near 12N 70W !!. Go figure

Link


This may go east of PR.
Quikscat will probably only catch the W edge of 99L so will check back later. Out for now
Quoting kmanislander:
As if there was not already enough uncertainty, Quikscat places the center of TD 15 near 12N 70W !!. Go figure

Link


Indeed... looks are deceiving, hopefully people are not focused on the convection burts too much and rely more on SFC/Ships observations before trying to upgrade a system that is not that organized yet for such upgrade.

Not hitting on anyone... just making sure all available resources are looked at before saying something compromising... hehe.
anything new with 99L i still believe that 99L will stall out near belieze and then start moving towards western cuba, i just cannot see this thing moving inland with a cold front coming down from the midwest
694. KBH
kman, give me your take, cause it sounds like we on the blog know where this system is going and not noaa
Kman, I am a little surprised that there is no circulation to speak of, on the sat. loops. QS showing it, but 99L looks to have a better formation than 15. And has done for a while.
If 15 does start to rotate, things could get very hairy...
What a MESS! Guess mother nature wants one last oncore before she sleeps..



No problem with the Water temps....they are still steaming....

Quoting KBH:
kman, give me your take, cause it sounds like we on the blog know where this system is going and not noaa


The difficulty this time of year in forecasting track for Caribbean systems is that typically steering is weak. This allows for a lot of meandering around, sometimes for days on end, before a storm will lift out with a front from the NW.

I expect that guidance will flip flop all over the place today. The true center location of TD 15 will probably raise some concerns for the NHC on the current forecast reasoning.

My best guess is that it will sit there all day. After that who knows.
698. KBH
Quoting pottery:
Hi there KBH.
TD 15 is not following instructions. I think the forecasters are saying " well, I dont really know what to say " LOL

that's a good one, local met here are waiting, seem to be reactive, no flood warnings being considered
Quoting pottery:
Kman, I am a little surprised that there is no circulation to speak of, on the sat. loops. QS showing it, but 99L looks to have a better formation than 15. And has done for a while.
If 15 does start to rotate, things could get very hairy...


Like I said earlier 99L could be stronger than currently estimated. I expect the pressure with it is down to 1004. The only question I have is whether it has reestablished a solid circulation as quikscat last night showed it as an open wave. The sat imagery this morning suggests at least a strong mid level circulation and possibly a closed low at the surface but imagery can be deceiving so we need either a good pass from QS or a HH mission to determine surface conditions
Have to run now. See you all later in the day
I hate to think this but, low pressure could be developing in the GOM also......
702. Prgal
Quoting kmanislander:


The difficulty this time of year in forecasting track for Caribbean systems is that typically steering is weak. This allows for a lot of meandering around, sometimes for days on end, before a storm will lift out with a front from the NW.

I expect that guidance will flip flop all over the place today. The true center location of TD 15 will probably raise some concerns for the NHC on the current forecast reasoning.

My best guess is that it will sit there all day. After that who knows.


I believe the models "predicted" this "stalling" of the system. Its supposed to sit there for a while and then it should turn to the NE tonight.
StormW, morning to you !
What is your take on the Caribbean today. Particularly, how much effect is 99 having on the location of the center of 15.
Is there a strong relationship developing between the two of them ?
GM all
Later Kman......
Quoting TampaSpin:
I hate to think this but, low pressure could be developing in the GOM also......


Where, Tampa?
I just hope they dont hold off classifying it as a Tropical Storm and the reconnaissance flight gets in and they go...
"oh. its a 60 mph TS and thats what we warned people might be the worst case scenario... I guess the GFDL was right"
Also, does anyone know what kind of rain those islands are getting?
Any radars there?
Quoting Prgal:


I believe the models "predicted" this "stalling" of the system. Its supposed to sit there for a while and then it should turn to the NE tonight.


It looks like both carribean systems are in no hurry to move.
709. Relix
Quoting Prgal:


I believe the models "predicted" this "stalling" of the system. Its supposed to sit there for a while and then it should turn to the NE tonight.


They did, and meteorologists were calling for this to happen already. Track stays the same. You need to stop doubting NOAA people, besides this is nature, she does whatever she wants we like it or not. Anyway, here at the University of Puerto Rico in Rio Piedras... its cloudy and checking the weather every minute =D
Good morning everyone!

Should be fun watching our myriad of Caribbean systems today, eh?
Quoting TampaSpin:
I hate to think this but, low pressure could be developing in the GOM also......


Thankfully... is just some TS clusters being enhanced by the outflow from the ULL to the SSW of it... so hopefully we'll not see much out of this.
I think TD15 will get picked up with the trough...look at this loop as it is digging south.....

Link
713. Prgal
Quoting Relix:


They did, and meteorologists were calling for this to happen already. Track stays the same. You need to stop doubting NOAA people, besides this is nature, she does whatever she wants we like it or not. Anyway, here at the University of Puerto Rico in Rio Piedras... its cloudy and checking the weather every minute =D


Agreed! I just wanted to clarify because there have been comments about it. I think we should all keep in mind that we are just amateurs and they know what they are doing. By the way, good morning to everyone :D, specially you guys here in PR.
Good morning all!
Wasnt it Storm or the DR that said the trough would go down to near South America...
In that case, wouldn't it be near impossible for it to miss 15?
Quoting StormW:
Morning Spicy!
storm when will you be putting out your synopsis for today
Relix, I am not bashing NOAA people per. se.
But as you rightly said, it is nature. Does what it wants most times. This system, again this year, has proved that.
It may indeed go N/E as predicted ( the conditions CURRENTLY suggest this ).
But yeah, Nature will decide on the track. We can only really guess.
How long the storm stays in the current position detirmines everything else.
Good morning Storm! How are you today?
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think TD15 will get picked up with the trough...look at this loop as it is digging south.....

Link


I see that. Why wouldn't 99l feel that trough also? It looks like it will dig far enough south. Why would 99l go west?
Good Morning.......Yeah; plenty of surprising action this morning in the Caribbean....MJO must be up and these two systems, in whatever form they ultimately take, could produce devastating rains and life threatenting flooding for our friends in Central American and the Greater Antilles.....Not CONUS events but dangerous and noteworthy systems (Boy is that TD 15 huge...........)....
723. KBH
pottery, my guesstimate is that TD15 was going to move NE, but 99L has more circulation that is causing TD15 to stall and is being pushed SE, like a stalled car without gas. I think that record of two weeks of rain here is going to be broken...now entering day 8
Thats a very big trough digging down,don't see how TD15 can miss being picked up
Lets hope everyone is wrong and 15 sits, spins, and dies.
Or sheers picks up and decapitates it.
THAT would be swell.
Quoting champagnedrmz:


I see that. Why wouldn't 99l feel that trough also? It looks like it will dig far enough south. Why would 99l go west?
thats what i am trying to figure out how can the models say its going to go inland near belieze i believe it will go towards western cuba/yucatan channel
Thanks Storm
720. SpicyAngel1072 8:39 AM EDT on October 14, 2008
Good morning Storm! How are you today?


Good!
You?

good ty... alot of action today
LOL KBH.
Here, we have had very little rain for the last 10 days. Go figure.......
721. champagnedrmz 8:39 AM EDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
I think TD15 will get picked up with the trough...look at this loop as it is digging south.....

Link


I see that. Why wouldn't 99l feel that trough also? It looks like it will dig far enough south. Why would 99l go west?


99L might be too far west and under a ridge of HIgh pressure to the NW. It is possible that the trough does pick it up
Quoting champagnedrmz:


I see that. Why wouldn't 99l feel that trough also? It looks like it will dig far enough south. Why would 99l go west?


Well the TVCN and HWRF are hinting that it's going to double on itself and go back east instead of continuing on towards Belize.

They may well be indicating the trough.
725. NEwxguy 8:40 AM EDT on October 14, 2008
Thats a very big trough digging down,don't see how TD15 can miss being picked up


Sorta like the RAYS hitting yesterday.....they couldn't miss hitting it over the wall...:)...lol sorry i had to do that....home field is now back...
735. KBH
sometimes gut feeling and experience goes along way than qualifications. Some of the best ideas come from the people at the bottom..like us..the ones at the top implement them and natually get the credit!
Quoting Cotillion:


Well the TVCN and HWRF are hinting that it's going to double on itself and go back east instead of continuing on towards Belize.

They may well be indicating the trough.
or the trough will miss it and leave a channel open between western cuba and the yucatan channel and move NE similar to Hurricane wilma but further south
morning
the tropics look rather interesting this morning. my emphasis this morning will be on td 15. although theQS on the system should very little i believe that it will form in a TS today. my concern is the south east movement of the disturbance and how long it will continue that motion. the longer it takes to make that ne turn the more threatening it will be for the central islands the forecast is for east then northeast . this is dependant how far south the trough gets and how soon. my take is the system will pass to to ne of puerto rico bringing heavy rains and gusty winds wed night into thursday morning.
738. Relix
Heh, some news are saying it's gonna pass to the east of PR now =P. I'll see what happens....
New tropical update posted...Link
be back later but, this is very convencing....

TD 15 has lost some of its very heavy convection from overnight. The convection is trending east now. Setting up for the N/E turn ???


Quoting KendallHurricane:
or the trough will miss it and leave a channel open between western cuba and the yucatan channel and move NE similar to Hurricane wilma but further south


I doubt it.

Firstly, there's a ridge sitting in the Gulf as well as over the Yucatan channel. WNW is about as far up as it's going to go right now unless it interacts with the front sweeping down. Wilma's movement NE was also caused by a trough, so it'd have to wait for the next to come along, which may not go so south, I haven't looked.
Quoting Cotillion:




I doubt it.

Firstly, there's a ridge sitting in the Gulf as well as over the Yucatan channel. WNW is about as far up as it's going to go right now unless it interacts with the front sweeping down. Wilma's movement NE was also caused by a trough, so it'd have to wait for the next to come along, which may not go so south, I haven't looked.
okay but if you check out weatherguy03 his track sounds really good for 99L
BrutaL run in SWFL this morning....past few days there was little to NO humidity -- Today it's back, like trying to run through a brick wall in a Turkish bath house....

Reviewing the posts -- what a Weird Weather Day... lots of variables out there....starting not to trust 99L -- it seems to be spying the HOT TUB of Mexico preferring that over Belize. Most of the 'canes we had this year were very savvy when it came to self-preservation......thinking 99L may be one of those.
Quoting surfmom:
BrutaL run in SWFL this morning....past few days there was little to NO humidity -- Today it's back, like trying to run through a brick wall in a Turkish bath house....

Reviewing the posts -- what a Weird Weather Day... lots of variables out there....starting not to trust 99L -- it seems to be spying the HOT TUB of Mexico preferring that over Belize. Most of the 'canes we had this year were very savvy when it came to self-preservation......thinking 99L may be one of those.
maybe but i don't think so
I am still not convinced that the models are right.
Is the effect on 15, by 99, being taken into good account? The models do not have a lot of experience with 2 systems in the area like now.
It is an un-usual set-up.
It could result in un-usual results....
Good morning everyone. 15 looks about the same as it was yesterday. Tropics sure got active since last Friday.
Quoting pottery:
I am still not convinced that the models are right.
Is the effect on 15, by 99, being taken into good account? The models do not have a lot of experience with 2 systems in the area like now.
It is an un-usual set-up.
It could result in un-usual results....


It's almost a shame that Nana ran into the wall of death.

TD15 and Nana were on a collision course. (Assuming that Td15 is going NE and Nana continues its WNW/NW jaunt) Would've been an interesting result what would happen if they did.
Why can't I get the image to past argggg. Anyway I was trying to show the spaghetti models for 99L.



Quoting TampaSpin:
725. NEwxguy 8:40 AM EDT on October 14, 2008
Thats a very big trough digging down,don't see how TD15 can miss being picked up


Sorta like the RAYS hitting yesterday.....they couldn't miss hitting it over the wall...:)...lol sorry i had to do that....home field is now back...



Rays on TBS...October!
Quoting pottery:
I am still not convinced that the models are right.
Is the effect on 15, by 99, being taken into good account? The models do not have a lot of experience with 2 systems in the area like now.
It is an un-usual set-up.
It could result in un-usual results....


I agree that when you get two storms close together, one appears to affect the other. Just like Nana and her child. The both have a lot of warm water to feed off. Waiting for Storms and Tampas updates.
could all be mute though.... if the center of 99L goes inland, which it looks close to doing, then it won't develop at all.
Champ, post 749.
Thanks for that. It all makes sense now. LOL
post 749,
Are you in the military?
Josh. Not "mute". You mean "moot".
Different thing altogether.
Quoting champagnedrmz:

Edit Failed!
Can you say confused?

Quoting pottery:
Champ, post 749.
Thanks for that. It all makes sense now. LOL


Not funny having a very bad morning. I can't get anything to work right. Anyway I edited it saying that I was trying to show the spaghetti models for 99l from google earth. Very frustrating. Glad you understand now though. Ha Ha
14/1145 UTC 14.4N 69.2W T2.5/2.5 15L -- Atlantic Ocean
14/1145 UTC 15.7N 82.8W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean
14/1145 UTC 15.4N 41.0W T1.5/1.5 90L -- Atlantic Ocean
well....is it TD 16...or Omar?
There's a good argument in favor of Omar this morning...we'll see what they say.
unless he meant that 99L was going to get very quiet once it got inland....maybe there are many libraries in that area? He is an FSU guy...what do you expect? Go Gators...
Quoting sporteguy03:
post 749,
Are you in the military?


No. Just a very tired Mom. Thank goodness though because I obviously would be sending out secured info. LOL
LOL Probly.
Ok blog bog or are they telling me I am too much of a mess today to blog?
Hmmm...when did they change 99L to TD #16?


Navy
As always and as simple as it may sound: Thank you for the update:)
he have td 16 on the navy site
768. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
he have td 16 on the navy site


Sure do.
btw someone last night said td 16 was not going to form and said it was R.I.P
770. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
btw someone last night said td 16 was not going to form and said it was R.I.P


Well...they were wrong...has some banding type features.

Looks like 90L is falling apart.
i see we now have TD 16
Quoting IKE:


Well...they were wrong...has some banding type features.

Looks like 90L is falling apart.

yup
Quoting btwntx08:
btw someone last night said td 16 was not going to form and said it was R.I.P


Why are you so surprised this blog thought 94L was RIP too, happens with every system just ask Ike.
Morning Taz.
Its all happening man.
Good to see you...
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?

well i see nana's spin and her baby's spin on this image
777. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Why are you so surprised this blog thought 94L was RIP too, happens with every system just ask Ike.


True.

newly formed td 16
whats see wish one gets the O storm 1st
781. KBH
from Barbados, the rains from a tropical wave have started. Been raining for 15 minutes and I can see some flooding outside...and to think TD15 looks like it is coming this way
775. sporteguy03 6:34 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?




what are you talking about??? am not geting snow one more thing like that and i put you up on my Ignore i wont get any snow in tell may be late oct or nov



now back too TD 15 and TD 16
Afternoon!

I see we have our 16th storm of the season....Thankfully by the look of the ridge forcasted to develope this thing has no were to go but onshore possible even moving SW in time.Just dont see this as florida/gulf threat based on everything ive seen.Things can change but that what iam seeing. Adrian

Here's a view at this afternoon's early models reflecting a SW motion in time. Adrian
784. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
775. sporteguy03 6:34 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see we now have TD 16


How is the snow there Taz?




what are you talking about??? am not geting snow one more thing like that and i put you up on my Ignore i wont get any snow in tell may be late oct or nov



now back too TD 15 and TD 16



hmmm??????????????????????????????????

He was just asking you....like a friend to a friend.
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it
um taz, look at your pic?!?! i'm sure that's where he got that from....
787. KBH
where is the link for TD16?
788. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year.
i no IKE but i wish they think 1st be for saying words if you no what i mean and no i dont have any snow at all so i dont no why or what he was talking about he can ask me that when i get my 1st snow fall
790. IKE
Quoting IKE:


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year.


Guess that makes me a wish-snow-caster.
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


Why are you so defensive? He didn't threaten your life. He asked about snow which is weather related. Not tropical but weather.
788. IKE 6:46 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year



i no and i said i was sorry i hop 03 nos that
I'm sure by the time my winter is done Ike,I'll be more than happy to send you some of mine.
wow morning all tempers are flaring this AM !
795. IKE
TD16 WILL be a TS...I'm calling it>>>

who and where does it show that 99L is now TD 16 i just got back on
Quoting IKE:


Guess that makes me a wish-snow-caster.


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away last October and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.
799. IKE
Quoting KendallHurricane:
who and where does it show that 99L is now TD 16 i just got back on


Navy site...

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2008&MO=10&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=99L.INVEST&PROD =track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/data/www/atlan tic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
NEW BLOG
Quoting KendallHurricane:
who and where does it show that 99L is now TD 16 i just got back on

navy site
803. IKE
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.


I agree to you and NEwxguy...once is enough. I lived in east Tennessee...it's no fun with snow and ice storms.

Here...if it ever snows, it usually melts by the next day. It is a pain in the a** to deal with.
Quoting Tazmanian:
788. IKE 6:46 AM PDT on October 14, 2008
Quoting Tazmanian:
ok may be that was a little rude but you no what and am sorry for that but i wish they think about what they say be for they start saying it


TAZ..I would ask you the same question. He's just asking...I don't know if you've had snow yet either...I wish I could see it at least once a year



i no and i said i was sorry i hop 03 nos that



Its all Good Taz, don't sweat it, I figured you had gotten snow by looking at your picture.
805. Relix
Wow Taz just went berserk for a simple comment... geesh, someone's a bit sentimental or something.

Anyway... from PR... it's cloudy, no rains the north coast where I am. Yet. News saying the arrival will be delayed and that it will pass to the east.
Quoting hurricane23:
Afternoon!

I see we have our 16th storm of the season....Thankfully by the look of the ridge forcasted to develope this thing has no were to go but onshore possible even moving SW in time.Just dont see this as florida/gulf threat based on everything ive seen.Things can change but that what iam seeing. Adrian

Here's a view at this afternoon's early models reflecting a SW motion in time. Adrian


Wow, Adrian, are you away from FL? I did not know it was already afternoon here, I have just before 10am :)
RIP 90L
Quoting IKE:
TD16 WILL be a TS...I'm calling it>>>



I'm with you... I believe TD16 has a 55% and TD15 has a 45% chance of becoming a TS first... but they will be very close. Whoever becomes the dominant low first... should greatly impact the other. Specially if TD16 goes to TS first.
Quoting champagnedrmz:


Funny because I had my fair share last year. I was in NH taking care of my Grandmother who passed away last October and didn't get back here until July. Let me tell you 100 inches of snow shoveling and knowing that in an application for snow plowing one of the prerequisites for getting the job is being very nasty, I had my fair share.

So I take that to mean you don't want to return for more?
Quoting Tazmanian:
i no IKE but i wish they think 1st be for saying words if you no what i mean and no i dont have any snow at all so i dont no why or what he was talking about he can ask me that when i get my 1st snow fall


Taz ... im sure ALOT of people around here wish YOU WOULD THINK before you type. Lighten up dude. Funny that YOU of ALL PEOPLE would say that. Dude was just asking you about the snow. Look at your picture and CHILL OUT!!!
The same trough that is supposed to pull Td15 N, then NE is supposed to push TD16 to the west or SW, lets see if this pans out so far its not doing so with TD15.
IF TD15 keep drifting south it might end up onshore in SA.
No tropical depresion ,but Omar at 11:00am
We have TD16 and Omar..

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...15.6 N...83.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...14.0 N...69.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.




very bad weather here in aruba strong winds and rain from sw , are we in the storm or just outside bands ?
also very rough seas at the coastel area,trees down, roofs blown off , flooding , fusebox fires, wanted too know if someone can tell me if its coming this way or not?? thx