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Little change to Richard; Giri strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar; Megi nears China

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:07 PM GMT on October 22, 2010

Tropical Storm Richard continues to struggle with dry air and wind shear, despite the fact that both of these influences have waned significantly today. However, the storm is poised to begin a period of steady intensification that should take it to hurricane strength by Sunday. There have not been any hurricane hunter aircraft in Richard since late this morning, and we have to wait until 8pm tonight for the next mission to arrive. The closest buoy to Richard is NOAA buoy 42057, which is about 80 miles north of the center. Winds at the buoy were 38 mph, gusting to 47 mph, at 3:43am EDT. Recent satellite imagery shows that Richard has not changed much in organization today. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west of Richard, and this dry air may cause some trouble for the storm over the next few days. The waters beneath Richard are very warm, 29°C.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Richard.

Intensity forecast for Richard
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will remain in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, Saturday through Monday. As the storm moves westwards on Saturday, it may draw close enough to coast of Honduras to hamper intensification. Assuming Richard avoids making landfall in Honduras, the light shear and warm waters that extend to great depth should allow Richard to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday. The 5pm NHC wind probability forecast is giving Richard a 7% chance of becoming a major Category 3+ hurricane. I believe the odds are higher, near 20%. The main inhibiting factor for intensification will be interaction with the north coast of Honduras, and the possibility of the dry air to the west of Richard getting wrapped into the core of the storm while it is trying to organize. A band of very strong upper-level winds associated with the jet stream will be over the Gulf of Mexico early next week, so it is likely that if Richard crosses into the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will be unable to intensify once it passes north of the latitude of the Florida Keys.

Track forecast for Richard
The latest set of 8am EDT (12Z) model runs are similar to the previous set of runs. On Saturday, Richard will move west at an increasing rate of speed in response to a ridge of high pressure that is expected to build in over the Caribbean. This path will bring the center of Richard close to the northern coast of Honduras on Saturday and Sunday, resulting in very heavy rains of 3 - 7 inches along the coast. None of the models predict a more northwesterly path towards Cancun/Cozumel or the western tip of Cuba, and Florida is not at risk of Richard coming its way over the next five days. The 5pm EDT NHC wind probability forecast is giving the highest odds for tropical storm-force winds at Guanaja in Honduras, at 70%. Belize City is next highest, at 65%, and the odds are 31% for Cozumel. If Richard never reaches hurricane strength, it may dissipate over the Yucatan Peninsula, as predicted by the NOGAPS and ECMWF models. If Richard does intensify into a hurricane, as predicted by the GFDL model, the storm may survive crossing the Yucatan, and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Very high wind shear associated with the jet stream is expected to be over the Gulf of Mexico next week, so if Richard begins moving north or northeast towards the U.S. Gulf Coast, dissipation before landfall is to be expected.

Invest 90L
A tropical wave (Invest 90L) centered about 100 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa has a modest amount of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, and the waters are warm enough to support tropical storm formation. NHC is giving the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday. By Sunday, 90L's northwest movement will take the storm into a region of high wind shear of 20 - 40 knots, discouraging further development. This system is not a threat to cross the Atlantic and affect the Lesser Antilles or North America.

Cyclone Giri hits Myanmar
Powerful Cyclone Giri made landfall this morning on the coast of Myanmar (Burma) as an upper-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds. Giri strengthened from a 60 mph tropical storm at 8am EDT yesterday to a 155 mph Category 4 storm by 8am this morning, becoming the strongest cyclone ever to hit Myanmar. Giri's winds at landfall were 20 mph stronger than those of Cyclone Nargis of 2008, which killed over 138,000 people. However, Giri hit a portion of the Myanmar coast that is not as heavily populated or as low-lying, so this will not be another Nargis catastrophe. Nevertheless, Giri's record strength and remarkably rapid intensification rate undoubtedly surprised an unprepared population, and the potential exists for a significant death toll due to Giri's surge and winds. Also of major concern is flooding from heavy rains. Giri is expected to dump 4 - 8 inches of rain along its path inland over Myanmar over the next 24 hours.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giri taken at 2:55am EDT October 22, 2010. At the time, Giri was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Megi unleashes torrential rains on Taiwan and China
Torrential rains from Typhoon Megi have triggered flooding and landslides in Taiwan that have left 7 people dead and 23 missing. The typhoon is also being blamed for the deaths of 36 people and $176 million in damage earlier this week in the Philippines. Megi continues its slow march towards China at 5 mph, and is expected to make landfall Saturday afternoon on the Chinese coast opposite from Taiwan. Megi is a large and powerful Category 1 typhoon with 90 mph winds, but rising wind shear has significantly weakened the storm today. Megi will continue to weaken until landfall, but will still be capable of causing considerable wind and storm surge damage even at Category 1 strength. Heavy rain will likely cause serious flooding since Megi is moving slowly and is a huge storm. I expect Megi will be a billion-dollar disaster for China, mostly due to flooding from heavy rains. The outer rain bands of Megi will continue to affect Taiwan and the coast of China near Taiwan through Saturday, as seen on China's radar composite and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Radar image of Typhoon Megi at 4:30pm EDT (4:30am Taiwan time) on October 22, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Next update
I'll have an update Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

http://www.brecklivecam.com/


Check this one!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link



My favorite vacation spot.

Nice place, but a little pricey; I had the, er, "pleasure" of living there for 14 months in the late 80s while doing construction. Great place to visit, but not so great for the working locals... ;-)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
http://www.brecklivecam.com/


Check this one!

Ok...I'm officially cold now. LOL. A little Bailey's Irish Cream & coffee time.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nice place, but a little pricey; I had the, er, "pleasure" of living there for 14 months in the late 80s while doing construction. Great place to visit, but not so great for the working locals... ;-)



cheaper than Vail and Aspen.
Richard is really getting his act together. I think he could become a strong category 1 before hitting Belize/Yucatan.
Link


Barrow Alaska Sea Ice webcam.
If my guess is correct, the healthy, consolidated, and spinning blob just coming off the coast--that is, the one I mentioned this morning--will become 91L or 92L in a day or two:

Click for loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



cheaper than Vail and Aspen.


I need the Caribbean and GOM to figure out what to do to end the season soon. I have to book a vacation.

Cancun. Cuba or Puerto Valarta.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Nice place, but a little pricey; I had the, er, "pleasure" of living there for 14 months in the late 80s while doing construction. Great place to visit, but not so great for the working locals... ;-)


i lived there in 89..pretty place...but yeah...dvs....down valley scum...what they called the workin peeps...lol...
Link


Shoulda done it this way the 1st time.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



cheaper than Vail and Aspen.

True...but then again, almost anywhere is cheaper than Vail or Aspen. ;-)
Shear around 10 knots, but much more favorable from yesterday's vertical shear that was really impacting his outflow.

Click To Enlarge
Actually, what I mean and I may be wrong, is the system would need to intensify of course, gain more latitude (at least a true wnw) and not speed up. The diving shortwave in the central U.S. will be followed by another stronger one which will carve out a full latitude longwave trough. If Richard gets to the coast and goes well inland the game is over especially if he goes in at a heading of 280 degrees. The ridge will eventually change in configuation but not that quickly. Like I said this is my opinion. However, jogs to the north can occur especially in the Gulf of Honduras. I think there are some tricks awaiting us and hopefully some of the moisture makes it to Florida. It should be pointed out that you see some high level moisture creeping northward to S. Fla. Also, this storm has a bulg to the north...it does not have that squished look of a west moving storm shunted south by an enormous ridge. Just my opinion. You can rip me if you want..it's open season
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Link



My favorite vacation spot.


Which Breckenridge is that? It snowed over parts of S. Ontario Thursday evening and Friday morning.
Quoting Ameister12:
Richard is really getting his act together. I think he could become a strong category 1 before hitting Belize/Yucatan.

He could. Not out of the question. Much of it may come down to his proximity to the northern Honduras coastline. Other than that, he doesn't have too many adverse conditions working against him before landfall. He may have a good run soon.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


Which Breckenridge is that? It snowed over parts of S. Ontario Thursday evening and Friday morning.


Colorado
Quoting Orcasystems:


I need the Caribbean and GOM to figure out what to do to end the season soon. I have to book a vacation.

Cancun. Cuba or Puerto Valarta.

You got me in a knot there. All great places. Cancun I'm a little biased since last time I was there I was in college....which speaks for itself ;) But you can't go wrong with Puerto V.
RE: 1014


Seems well thought out and reasonable. But as always...it's weather!
1020. kramus
Growing Dick could bring moisture to some in Central America today. No need to panic though, they've experienced others.
Quoting Neapolitan:
If my guess is correct, the healthy, consolidated, and spinning blob just coming off the coast--that is, the one I mentioned this morning--will become 91L or 92L in a day or two:

Click for loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


Looks like it's almost trying to develop!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
21:00 PM JST October 23 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 22.7N 154.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving northeast at 6 knots
I got beautiful beaches right where I live. That's why I like to hit the slopes when I can sneak away for a week. Stormchasers convention in Denver coming up February 18,19 and 20, 2011. Perfect excuse to indulge my two favorite pastimes. Wild weather and sliding down big frozen mountains! Downhill skiing is the most fun you can have with your clothes on!
Here's a nice one showing Richard spinning up and the nasty tornado-making cold front pushing through south-central Texas:

Click for large loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Neapolitan:
If my guess is correct, the healthy, consolidated, and spinning blob just coming off the coast--that is, the one I mentioned this morning--will become 91L or 92L in a day or two:

Click for loop:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image

I agree. We already had 90L; why stop there. That CV train sure seems to have a second wind so to speak.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You got me in a knot there. All great places. Cancun I'm a little biased since last time I was there I was in college....which speaks for itself ;) But you can't go wrong with Puerto V.


Been to PV 3 times

Cancun 4 times...giving serious thought to doing two weeks in Cuba..

BUT, I am a little worried about the weather (I think the season is going to run long this year)and the missing GOM oil.

So, we may just go back to PV for two weeks.

Atlantic ACE is now at 143.3475 with the 11 AM update at 55kts. Will Richard intensify more than what NHC is forecasting? If it intensifies more,then it will reach the 150 line of hyperactive season. Lets see what occurs.
Richard looking better by the moment.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been to PV 3 times

Cancun 4 times...giving serious thought to doing two weeks in Cuba..

BUT, I am a little worried about the weather (I think the season is going to run long this year)and the missing GOM oil.

So, we may just go back to PV for two weeks.


Yeah, might be the safer choice, even despite having been there 3 times already. GFS has been trigger-happy the past several days with these systems just west of there anyway. Either way, at least you get the two weeks. Kudos to that.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Been to PV 3 times

Cancun 4 times...giving serious thought to doing two weeks in Cuba..

BUT, I am a little worried about the weather (I think the season is going to run long this year)and the missing GOM oil.

So, we may just go back to PV for two weeks.



I'd like to visit "Whistler" someday as well.
Hints of an eyewall..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hints of an eyewall..

Look at that. He could be laying the groundwork as we speak.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRING
11:00 PM PhST October 23 2010
=====================================

Tropical Depression "KATRING" has maintained its strength and is moving generally westward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Katring located at 15.0°N 133.3°E or 1,170 km east of central Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is forecasted to move west southwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=======================
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KATRING
11:00 PM PhST October 23 2010
=====================================

Tropical Depression "KATRING" has maintained its strength and is moving generally westward.

At 10:00 PM PhST, Tropical Depression Katring located at 15.0°N 133.3°E or 1,170 km east of central Luzon has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is forecasted to move west southwest at 7 knots.

Additional Information
=======================

Oh my that scared me - I had to look at that name a second time. Katring. Yet another one out there.
I still do not think that Richard will have time to become anything significant with land interaction literally imminent on the south side. In addition to this the land will continue to get closer from the west until it is enclosed with land. It needs to pull northward to become anything significant
1037. Dakster
On a somber note,condolences to those in Barbados. I see that their Prime Minister has passed away at the ripe old age of 48.

http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/americas/10/23/barbados.prime.minister.obit/index.html?hpt=T2

1038. Patrap





OK, now this is true and funny :)
he should just be the first of many

The first teacher banned for life for being useless

A teacher who is judged to be incapable of ever improving his work has become the first to be banned for life from the classroom due to incompetence.

Wind Shear is in the unfavorable range over the Southern Gulf of Mexico...Mon-Wed. but not highly unfavorable
1041. Dakster
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, now this is true and funny :)
he should just be the first of many

The first teacher banned for life for being useless

A teacher who is judged to be incapable of ever improving his work has become the first to be banned for life from the classroom due to incompetence.



I guess this means he will be a CEO in some large company now.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh my that scared me - I had to look at that name a second time. Katring. Yet another one out there.


ya imagine if Juan was named Katring instead.
1043. IKE


RE: 1039


Can you imagine that in the US?
We can't get rid of them here. The US is probably where he'll end up. With tenure no less.
If and when you weather lovers get a chance, be sure to head over to Christopher Burt's "Weather Extremes" WU blog. Today's installment is a very detailed--and very convincing--deconstruction of various all-time global heat "records". That is, most of those "records" are anything but...
Lookin like "Big Richard" went to "See Alice"!
Morning, all, ^_^
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Lookin like "Big Richard" went to "See Alice"!


Lookin'
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I still do not think that Richard will have time to become anything significant with land interaction literally imminent on the south side. In addition to this the land will continue to get closer from the west until it is enclosed with land. It needs to pull northward to become anything significant

Any further south of a track and he'll be following in his little brother Matthew's footsteps...

I'm with you. While the conditions aloft are favorable along with the TCHP's (which are more than enough to sustain rapid development), I just think the land interaction (whether it's from the northern coast of Honduras) or from his approaching encounter with Belize will keep his intensity to nothing more than a minimal hurricane if he continues with the same forward motion and speed.

He'd really have to slow down, and I just don't see that happening. He might have a nice run soon, but nothing spectacular.
Quoting Dakster:


I guess this means he will be a CEO in some large company now.



NPR? MSNBC?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


ya imagine if Juan was named Katring instead.

They would all be screaming conspiracy theory!! LOL
Quoting HurricaneRichard:
Morning, all, ^_^



here a nic wake up call for you reported
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



NPR? MSNBC?

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.
Quoting HurricaneRichard:
Morning, all, ^_^


oh and poof
1,234,567 Photos!
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.


I knew that'd rouse ya!
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned northward to (10.8degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous center*reformation dueEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions has been ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h)

TropicalStormRichard
22Oct 03pmGMT - 15.8n81.1w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv#7
22Oct 06pmGMT - 15.8n81.3w - 40mph(~64.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#7A
22Oct 09pmGMT - 16.2n81.7w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#8
23Oct 12amGMT - 15.8n82.3w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#8A
23Oct 03amGMT - 15.8n82.4w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9
23Oct 06amGMT - 15.8n82.6w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1007mb - NHC.Adv.#9A
23Oct 09amGMT - 15.8n83.2w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#10
23Oct 12pmGMT - 15.8n83.0w - 45mph(~72.4km/h) - - 1004mb - NHC.Adv.#10A
23Oct 03pmGMT - 15.9n83.5w - 65mph(~104.5km/h) - 1000mb - NHC.Adv.#11

Copy&paste 15.8n81.1w, 15.8n81.3w, 16.2n81.7w, 15.8n82.3w, 15.8n82.4w-15.8n82.6w, 15.8n82.6w-15.8n83.2w, 15.8n83.2w-15.8n83.0w, 15.8n83.0w-15.9n83.5w, bze, rtb, 15.9n83.5w-16.44n86.3w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the headings and distance travelled over the last 12^hours.

.Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~15hours from now to JoseSantosGuardiola,RoatanIsland,Honduras

^ The (westnorth)westernmost line-segment is the straightline projections

* On 23Oct 12pmGMT, TS.Richard's center had reformed dueEast of it's previous position after having earlier travelled dueWest for the 9hours prior to 23Oct 09mGMT.
Hence the westernmost position on the straight east-to-west line is the third most recent.
And the newest line-segment (which represents TS.Richard's most recent 3hours of travel) departs from the second-most western position on that straight east-to-west line.
Quoting IKE:



Someone picked up a cold or fever or something.
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
1,234,567 Photos!

LOL. Don't see that everyday.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


I knew that'd rouse ya!

Really? So you were thinking the same thing, then? Cool! I always knew you had to be more intelligent than you normally come across! ;-)
1063. 7544
is richard moving north now tia ?
Richard will likely survive the yucatan if it can stay farther north and strengthen. I'll be back after making my update.
Good morning, Levi! How's everything at school? Thanks for the vid. I'll go check it out right now. It's my daily bible on here, you're the best.
1066. unf97
Quoting 7544:
is richard moving north now tia ?


He is moving just slightly north of due west.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd


If it does as you suspect.. wouldn't the shear kill it when it gets back over water after the Yucatan?

I don't like your day 13 :(

How am I suppose to book a sunny vacation when you keep saying things like that :(
NEW BLOG
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd


More west like track for Richard and we should be alert here in the caribbean..... Thanks for your Tropica Tidbit....
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, October 23rd

Thanks Levi
NEW BLOG
1072. txjac
Thanks again Levi
This blog is now the old blog.
There is now a new blog.
ok so i am her in southeast florida so i really have nothing to worry about when it comes to richard over the next seven days right?
Quoting Neapolitan:

I was thinking maybe a job at Fox, or even as Palin's 2012 running mate.


you are joking of course, because Palin is now a reality star.