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Little change to Maria; Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:31 PM GMT on September 13, 2011

There's not much new to report this morning regarding Tropical Storm Maria. Maria continues to creep slowly to the northwest, and continues to struggle with moderate wind shear of 15 - 20 knots that is preventing the storm from organizing. Satellite loops reveal a shapeless mass of heavy thunderstorms that don't much resemble a tropical cyclone. Long-range radar out of Puerto Rico does show a few respectable low-level spiral bands, and these bands have brought heavy flooding rains to the island this morning. Radar-estimated rainfall amounts over eight inches have occurred over portions of southern Puerto Rico, and flash flood warnings are posted for the La Plata River.


Figure 1. Morning radar image of Tropical Storm Maria from the Puerto Rico radar.

The trough of low pressure that is bringing hostile wind shear to Maria is predicted to weaken slightly on Wednesday, which may allow the storm to grow to Category 1 hurricane strength. Intensification will be hampered by the fact that Maria will be passing over the cold water wake left by Hurricane Katia, though. NHC is giving Maria a 24% chance of reaching hurricane strength in their 5 am EDT wind probability forecast. On Thursday, Maria will be making its closest approach to Bermuda. Bermuda will see an 8-hour period of sustained winds in the 25 - 35 mph range, accompanied by heavy rain squalls, beginning near 2 am local time on Thursday. Most of the models show that Maria will brush or strike Newfoundland, Canada on Friday afternoon. Heavy rains will be a flooding threat to the west of where Maria passes, and tree damage and power failures from high winds of 45 - 55 mph will be a concern to the east of where the center goes.


Video 1. Video of what Extratropical Storm Katia's winds were like at Malin Head, Ireland, at 1:45 pm September 12, 2011. Wind gusts reached 75 mph on Malin Head during the storm.

Extratropical Storm Katia batters the U.K.
The extratropical version of Hurricane Katia roared over northern Scotland in the U.K. yesterday, bringing hurricane-force winds gusts and heavy rains to much of the British Isles. Glen Ogle, Scotland, at an elevation of 1500 feet (546 meters), received sustained winds of 60 mph, gusting to 86 mph, at 1900 local time. Cairngorm, in the Scottish Highlands at an elevation of 4085 feet, reported sustained winds of 67 mph at 6:50 pm local time. With the trees in full leaf, tree damage was much higher than a winter or springtime storm of similar ferocity would have caused. One person was killed by a falling tree, and heavy tree damage and numerous power failures were reported throughout Britain. Other gusts experienced in Britain included 76 mph at Edinburgh Blackford Hill, 75 mph at Capel Curig in Wales, 72 mph at Glasgow Bishopton, and 71 mph at Loftus, North Yorkshire.

Wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says that Cairngorm summit holds the U.K. record for highest wind gust, with 172 mph measured on March 20, 1986. The record wind gust at a low-level site is 141 mph at Kinnaird's Head Lighthouse, Scotland, on February 13, 1989. Damage on the Isle of Skye during this storm was such that wind speeds in excess of 150 mph were estimated.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Does anybody know when the FINAL damage costs from Irene will come in?

Preliminary still lies around $10.1 billion.
Quoting Levi32:


That's the other point to be made for the other side as well. Meteorologically this season may be nothing extraordinary at this point, but it has left a painful mark and has demonstrated its threat to land. The entire theme of this season was supposed to be smaller numbers than last year but greater threat to land.
Levi i hate asking predictions lol but so far we got 2 hurricanes how many more YOU SEE from your point of view forming? and it only takes 1 to hurt somebody and we got a perfect exmaple how one storms slips and misses the trough and boom into the US causing 10 billion damage. i dont pay attention to tropical storm numbers more the lines of hurricanes, how strong they get and where they go. thanks
Levi, do you think the MJO may be a factor on how the Atlantic ends the 2011 season in terms of more hurricanes than the average of 6?
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


...She was historic.
imo, no.
Not unless you want to automatically include every cyclone that's hit the NE as being historic.

Arlene 65mph storm in june. not bad NUMBER 1
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Does anybody know when the FINAL damage costs from Irene will come in?

Preliminary still lies around $10.1 billion.

These things take a while, of course; even the NHC's TCRs, which come out in the winter, sometimes use only estimated numbers.

I'm very interested in the Lee damage. Pennsylvania alone says Lee may have caused up to $3 billion damage in that state.
Quoting robert88:
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.
Why wasn't all the DRY AIR factored in the long term forecasts? Cause they didn't see it coming. It will be a learning experience for them. And they will have to explain it to us.
Quoting Neapolitan:

These things take a while, of course; even the NHC's TCRs, which come out in the winter, sometimes use only estimated numbers.

I'm very interested in the Lee damage. Pennsylvania alone says Lee may have caused up to $3 billion damage in that state.


Ok.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure Lee is/will be a multi-billion dollar disaster when the totals are added up...or the preliminary...whatever, lol.
There is still half of September and October to dodge a potential major hurricane from hitting the US Coast... I know technically November is in the picture, but at that point things have started to cool off a little.

AL, 14, 2011091400, , BEST, 0, 230N, 681W, 45, 1004, TS, 34, NEQ, 150, 150, 0, 0, 1011, 165, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MARIA, M,
504. robert88 8:16 PM EDT on September 13, 2011

Those troughs that we have had the pleasure of having this season, are no longer going to be our friends come October and November. Those are the bad boys that screw over the Caribbean islands and the southeast United States when they turn Caribbean cyclones north and northeastward towards landmasses.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
504. robert88 8:16 PM EDT on September 13, 2011

Those troughs that we have had the pleasure of having this season, are no longer going to be our friends come October and November. Those are the bad boys that screw over the Caribbean islands and the southeast United States when they turn Caribbean cyclones north and northeastward towards landmasses.


Lol.

I guess that is a good way to put it. :P
Quoting robert88:
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.


I agree with that. This 2011 Atlantic season has to be studied a lot by the experts to see what has been the real cause of the lack of hurricanes. And there was no El Nino to blame as it has been Neutral to La Nina, although with La Nina being officially proclamed recently,the effects in the Atlantic will be later.
MH09 - That is kinda what we need to watch for...

But this is really nothing new...

Where is the PATTERN CHANGE that the experts have been calling for over a month that was supposed to bring CONUS trouble? Where is Bastardi's FRENZY? The pattern is now changing and it looks like trough city and early fall.
Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)
Quoting FrankZapper:
Where is the PATTERN CHANGE that the experts have been calling for over a month that was supposed to bring CONUS trouble? Where is Bastardi's FRENZY? The pattern is now changing and it looks like trough city and early fall.
last week of september strong ridging no troughs. if a cape verde storm forms thats its final destination. if theres no trough east coast hit. also troughs are bad in the fall they pull carribean storms north into the US
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
last week of september strong ridging no troughs. if a cape verde storm forms thats its final destination. if theres no trough east coast hit. also troughs are bad in the fall they pull carribean storms north into the US
ive been wondering about every storm and every forcast this whole season and what went wrong
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why? Because there haven't been many hurricanes? Oh well...There has still been a lot of storms that deserved a name (Jose MAY be an exception). I think people are using 2005 as the bar too much as the basis of a record breaking season. Even if we HAVE only had two hurricanes this season...more are to come.<br>
(Not trying to be rude, btw)



How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.
evening everyone
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Well, given that its really slow up in here, I thought it would be good to make an announcement.

Starting on June 1st, 2012 I will be posting 5-10 minute video updates with my tropical weather updates on a daily basis. I will be working and experimenting with video editing, recording and sound recording over the next few months with my first video in May.


Cool, I look forward to watching them.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Why not? Plus, I said "Pretty Much". I didn't say it was certain. Think about it:

The regular storm alphabet features 21 storms, or letters.

We've already gotten A-N, or 14 named storms. That leaves seven more...With a good likelihood of at least 1-2 named storms over the next two weeks.

It's going to be tough to make it to the greek alphabet. We'd need 8 more storms.

Personally, I don't think we'll make it, but that's just my prediction.

Quoting Levi32:


That's the other point to be made for the other side as well. Meteorologically this season may be nothing extraordinary at this point, but it has left a painful mark and has demonstrated its threat to land. The entire theme of this season was supposed to be smaller numbers than last year but greater threat to land.


??

14 named storms and only 2 hurricanes? 8 Tropical Storms in a row to start off the season?

That's incredibly extraordinary. As far as I am aware, it's never happened before.
Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.


Yep - A multi-billion dollar hurricane that caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well is a minor blimp on the radar.

COMPLETELY AGREE...100%!

yeah right..
Quoting Levi32:


The entire Gulf of Mexico is open for business until the end of September, and 2-3 cold nights aren't going to freeze it over with ice. Let's not start feeling all safe while we're in the peak 2 weeks of the season.


How do you feel about the GFS developing the NW caribbean, and not the ECMWF? I feel like when the ECMWF doesn't develop something this year, it usually doesn't. I know it can still change it's tune considering it is a long way out, but what are you thoughts? What do you think is hindering development on the Euro, MJO or perhaps the syestem that is suppose to develop off the NC coast that the Euro showed for a few runs?
Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.
I think....it's pretty much agreed at this point that the weather story of the year is the Texas drought. Despite the horrendous spring tornados and the historic floods in Vermont and New Jersey and parts of Pa. Texas is bigger(and no I'm not from Texas). At this point the whole country is praying for rain in Texas. This is an ongoing event as well.
Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.

Dude, what the hell?


Although Maria has been quite a dud intensity wise due to wind shear issues, she has absolutely dumped on Puerto Rico with rain. Hope all our bloggers in PR are doing well, rains should be easing up as Maria moves off. Still more rain in the forecast, however


Latest QPF, hours 12-36


Quoting wunderweatherman123:
last week of september strong ridging no troughs. if a cape verde storm forms thats its final destination. if theres no trough east coast hit. also troughs are bad in the fall they pull carribean storms north into the US
If what you say comes true then that's the pattern change and we may be in trouble. I personally think CV is over. And anything that approaches the Gulf from the Caribbean gets choked by Texas hot and dry air. Now if that dry air goes away?
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)


Thanks Nea

I thought Texas was finally supposed to be cooling off though lol
Quoting jascott1967:


How do you know there are more to come? This hurricane season has been unspectacular. The real story this year, where the weather is concerned, has been the tornado outbreak in the spring and the drought/record breaking high temps in OK/TX. The 2011 tropical season is a mere blip on the radar, something that will quickly be forgotten in the national conscious. The Texas drought will be remembered for many years to come.


Irene caused around 10 billion in damages and killed over 40 people in the US alone.

Your comment about this season being unspectacular is way off base and it kind of scares me. Makes me think that it would take a Katrina-like disaster for you to not feel this way.
Not sure if you've heard this, but Lee destroyed a bridge built in 1885.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Dallas officially reached 107 today, a new record a full seven degrees higher than the previous September 13 record of 100. (It reached 103 there yesterday, itself breaking the record of 100.) Dallas has now reached 100 on 70 different days since June 13, the most ever in a single year there.

Wichita Falls reached 105, also a record. More astoundingly, this was the 100th day in that city this year in which the temperature reached 100, completely obliterating the previous record of 79.

Finally, Oklahoma City also reached a record 102 today, the 63rd day this year the temp has reached 100. The previous record was 50.

FWIW, Dallas should be close to 100 tomorrow before the cold front passes through; Thursday's predicted high is just 81. Wichita Falls will drop to 59 Thursday night after reaching the upper 90s tomorrow; and OKC will be into the low 50s Thursday night. The cool spell will be short-lived, but my family in the area says it will be very welcome. One would imagine so... ;-)
Nea, why do you think it's been so HOT in Texas this year?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yep - A multi-billion dollar hurricane that caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well is a minor blimp on the radar.

COMPLETELY AGREE...100%!

yeah right..


Tropical Storm Allison dumped over 40 inches in Jefferson county in Texas, killed 41 people and caused 6.8 billion dollars in damage. remember Allison? Maybe you do but if you poll people in the wake of Irene, I bet 90% of those polled wouldn't have a clue about Allison. Why?

But you're probably right. The nation as a whole will have a better recollection of Irene than Allison because, and only because of the fact it a) was talked about ad naseum by media and b) it was an Eastern US event.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Talk about cold...

International Falls, Minnesota is currently a Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning. Guess what their low tomorrow night will be?

52? No.

42? No.

32? No.

22? YES.

With a slight chance of rain.


Heh, my husband and brother are about 100 miles north of there. Glad I didn't go now!

Quoting Grothar:


Thanks for sticking up for us atmo!

Atmo is still here. Just sayin'.
Quoting basti11:



LEVI all im saying for the next 2 weeks ill use louisiana im sure feeling good with these cool fronts coming in so early...we will just have to see how things pan out...the ones that should be concerned is south fla they are the ones going to be under the gun when something develops in the nw or western caribbean...it can take only 2 tracks west into mexico or ne into the keys and south fla..

that must be a misstatement,"thats the only way they can go"ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm i don't think so. i see 4-6 more named storms for the season.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think....it's pretty much agreed at this point that the weather story of the year is the Texas drought. Despite the horrendous spring tornados and the historic floods in Vermont and New Jersey and parts of Pa. Texas is bigger(and no I'm not from Texas). At this point the whole country is praying for rain in Texas. This is an ongoing event as well.
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.
Quoting Neapolitan:

These things take a while, of course; even the NHC's TCRs, which come out in the winter, sometimes use only estimated numbers.

I'm very interested in the Lee damage. Pennsylvania alone says Lee may have caused up to $3 billion damage in that state.
The other thing to watch out for is the 'insured damage' and the estimated damage. The estimated damage is very subject to who is putting the number together.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Yeah but only 2 hurricanes thus far. NHC is making this season MUCH more incredible than it is in reality. I don't think it deserves the title of 2nd most active season on record.
NHC has criteria that needs to be met to name a storm. They don't just say ummmmmmmmmm, let's flip coin, heads wins and we name the storm. if it's a weak storm, it's a weak storm....just my 2 cents
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So Levi, when is the next hurricane landfall? :P

That seems a bit unreasonable to ask. Are you making fun?
Quoting aquak9:
NOAA local says, winds 15- gust to 32.

No idea where westheimer and eldridge is...I'm in florida.

are you N, S, E or W of the fire?

The grass fire is south of I10 just west of highway 6. SW of the intersection of I10 and 6. Appeared to be headed north when I drove by at rush hour.

Edit: video and news report from 6 pm CDT.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.
2011 will not be remembered as an ordinary year.
Quoting FrankZapper:
2011 will not be remembered as an ordinary year.
What is an ordinary year?
Quoting bappit:

That seems a bit unreasonable to ask. Are you making fun?


Yeah.
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:

that must be a misstatement,"thats the only way they can go"ummmmmmmmmmmmmmm i don't think so. i see 4-6 more named storms for the season.
I've been saying since the beginning of the season that will use up all the names on the list. So I see 7 more names coming.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
The Texas drought may last another year or so, who knows? The future outlook for most of Texas into 2012 is not looking promising. The floods throughout the midwest and northeast are terrible, the tornadoes were unbelievable. There is a very good chance the Texas drought will be the most costly by the time it ends? The Winter in the Northeast was not good. The Texas drought is the most persistent disaster that is for sure. To describe 2011 weather in the U.S.A. Costly Disasters come to mind for me. Bless all of those who have suffered losses and who continue to suffer.


2011 is an anomaly. 100% sure that 2012 will be somewhat better although not normal rainfall wise. Better hope for El Nino by the end of fall 2012 to bring in tons of rainfall...

I went through hell in 2005 when I got only 14 inches of rainfall just south of Dallas then it got a little better at 26 inches or whatever in 2006. 2007 was magical....
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa.
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.
--Jeff Masters

there is nothing going on right now except strange maria. in another week it may be a different story.
Quoting twincomanche:
What is an ordinary year?
Let me rephrase. 2011 will be remembered as an extraordinary year.
Neapolitan, I also read that Lee caused up to 3 billion in damages. If that's the case, Lee could merit retirement.. becoming the 2nd ever Tropical Storm ever retired.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
Well if we combine the GFS and ECMWF we'll have Ophelia from the wave off of Africa. Philippe the Caribbean disturbance and Sean and Rina in the middle of the Atlantic by months end.
Quoting FrankZapper:
Let me rephrase. 2011 will be remembered as an extraordinary year.
Agreed........we all hope.
Quoting FrankZapper:
2011 will not be remembered as an ordinary year.
Is there ever an ordinary year?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.


I think we'll have a couple more storms this month...

* Ophelia
* Philippe
* Rina
* Sean?

Then October...

* Tammy
* Vince
* Whitney
* Alpha

And November...

* Beta
Quoting Chicklit:
Several of the models predict the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance 4 - 5 days from now off the coast of Africa.
The NOGAPS and GFS models are predicting the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 7 - 8 days from now, as moisture from the Eastern Pacific flows northeast into the Caribbean.

Jeff Masters


good evening.
appears that we're in a mid-season breather.
another week appears things will percolate.
substitute the calm before the storm for the lull before storms.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.



lol i hope you are not SERIOUS....if we are going to see a hurricane develop it will be in september..im so glad TAMMY IS AT THE END of the list..if she forms this season she will be A BIT** FOR SOMEONE SOUTH OF 23N..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I think we'll have a couple more storms this month...

* Ophelia
* Philippe
* Rina
* Sean?

Then October...

* Tammy
* Vince
* Whitney
* Alpha

And November...

* Beta


Imma go a bit more conservative for now and say that we will get to Whitney. Although, if I'm wrong, it will probably be too low.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dude, what the hell?


And that chart will be even more dramatic when they total Lee's rain, and overlay the two.

Some of the same areas got hit from both, IIRC.
Quoting basti11:



lol i hope you are not SERIOUS....if we are going to see a hurricane develop it will be in september..im so glad TAMMY IS AT THE END of the list..if she forms this season she will be A BIT** FOR SOMEONE SOUTH OF 23N..


I am dead serious. Last time I checked, that didn't include hurricanes but named storms in total.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
substitute the calm before the storm for the lull before storms.

agree. it's hot out there.
The caribbean for example. The GOM.
Saturday was mid-point on The Chart.
anyway, goodnight.
if TAMMY forms she will be the QUEEN BIT** of this 2011 HURRICANE SEASON...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
523. Thanks!!

And I think we'll make it to Alpha this year in late November or December.

We're on Nate now, 14 names in.

Good bet we'll see Ophelia over the weekend or next week, Philippe and Rina late next week into early next, followed by Sean in October. Tammy, Vince come in October as well. Whitney in November, Alpha in late November or early December.
Yeah, we'll see. It should be a really close call between reaching the Greek alphabet and not making it.

Personally, I'm thinking we'll finish out the season with 20-21, although I do recognize that if we do not end on these numbers, it will be more likely that we surpass them then fail to meet them. I could easily see 3 in Sep, 3/4 in Oct, and 1/2 in Nov happening.
Quoting BDADUDE:
Is there ever an ordinary year?
I believe 1955 is considered to be the most ordinary year of all time. It was PLEASANTVILLE.
Quoting hcubed:


And that chart will be even more dramatic when they total Lee's rain, and overlay the two.

Some of the same areas got hit from both, IIRC.

If damage estimates are correct, the total damage this season has done to the US would be over $13 billion. And we still have half of September, October and November.
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.



Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah, we'll see. It should be a really close call between reaching the Greek alphabet and not making it.

Personally, I'm thinking we'll finish out the season with 20-21, although I do recognize that if we do not end on these numbers, it will be more likely that we surpass them then fail to meet them. I could easily see 3 in Sep, 3/4 in Oct, and 1/2 in Nov happening.


Very active season, that is for sure.

One thing I find interesting is the amount of frontal boundary storms we've had this season. Never seen so many..
Quoting BDADUDE:
Is there ever an ordinary year?
Quoting BDADUDE:
Is there ever an ordinary year?
Welcome back Caicos!
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Dude, what the hell?

I have to agree with jascott1967. The season has been unspectacular stats-wise--except I find the storms interesting. I still want to know why Irene had such low surface winds when it had a low pressure and higher winds aloft. What I read indicated that the stability of the lower atmosphere affects how strongly winds aloft propagate to the surface. Of course, that is familiar to low level jet watchers when there is an inversion at night, but inversion and hurricane are two words that don't go together, I would think. Must be something more subtle than that. Maybe if a shallow layer of dry air snuck into the circulation ... that would be stable relative to the moist air above. There is such a thing as elevated convection--familiar with that when over cool air masses in Texas, but the heavy rain in North Carolina might not be consistent with that. It is a puzzlement.

Edit: oops I meant to disagree with WNPR and agree with Jascott.
Just a hello :)

Quoting txag91met:
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.



Did you get any afternoon thunderstorms this summer?
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If damage estimates are correct, the total damage this season has done to the US would be over $13 billion. And we still have half of September, October and November.
That may well be a bit overblown at this time. However I must admit we are still arguing about how much damage was done by Rita and Katrina.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Im watching an argument on youtube right now. America v. Anti-Americans. For some reason its on Cyndi Lauper messes up on the National Anthem at the U.S. Open Tennis video, but one thing is certain, the Anti-US people are making stuff up like, " America has as much poverty as africa. Sry this is really of topic but what a disgrace.
link please
575. Relix
This season has been good for me. I got hit by Irene, tracked close Emily and Maria.. etc. I expect one more to get close to PR! :P!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Very active season, that is for sure.

One thing I find interesting is the amount of frontal boundary storms we've had this season. Never seen so many..
Very active in terms of named systems, indeed. Although named storms is certainly not the only way to measure tropical activity. As Levi said, it's also probably the worst way to measure total tropical activity and how much the global atmosphere was affected by these storms. For these kind of measurements, ACE would be a better measure of tropical activity.

Anyway, yea we've had 5 storms from frontal boundaries and 8 storms form outside of the tropics (north of 23N). This probably isn't a record (I don't care to go dig through the archives to find out) but it's certainly a rarity, especially at this point in the season.


Sure doesn't look like much going on the next few days.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Very active in terms of named systems, indeed. Although named storms is certainly not the only way to measure tropical activity. As Levi said, it's also probably the worst way to measure total tropical activity and how much the global atmosphere was affected by these storms. For these kind of measurements, ACE would be a better measure of tropical activity.

Anyway, yea we've had 5 storms from frontal boundaries and 8 storms form outside of the tropics (north of 23N). This probably isn't a record (I don't care to go dig through the archives to find out) but it's certainly a rarity, especially at this point in the season.
It's kinda groovy, don't ya think?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Neapolitan, I also read that Lee caused up to 3 billion in damages. If that's the case, Lee could merit retirement.. becoming the 2nd ever Tropical Storm ever retired.


Well most of that is attributed to damage in PA and NY after Lee merged with a frontal system so it's still up in the air.
Quoting bappit:

I have to agree with jascott1967. The season has been unspectacular stats-wise--except I find the storms interesting. I still want to know why Irene had such low surface winds when it had a low pressure and higher winds aloft. What I read indicated that the stability of the lower atmosphere affects how strongly winds aloft propagate to the surface. Of course, that is familiar to low level jet watchers when there is an inversion at night, but inversion and hurricane are two words that don't go together, I would think. Must be something more subtle than that. Maybe if a shallow layer of dry air snuck into the circulation ... that would be stable relative to the moist air above. There is such a thing as elevated convection--familiar with that when over cool air masses in Texas, but the heavy rain in North Carolina might not be consistent with that. It is a puzzlement.

Edit: oops I meant to disagree with WNPR and agree with Jascott.


I disagree with both Jascott and you. While this season has not produced the amount of hurricanes that a typical season would, both of the hurricanes we've had have been deadly and costly. Hurricane Irene has killed at least 55 people, and the damage estimates are up to $10.1 billion. It caused record flooding in the Northeast, as well as destroying a very popular bridge (yes, I know, so very anti-climatic). It was the first hurricane to strike the USA in three years as well. To add to your question, my opinion of why Irene was never able to match its pressure, is that the answer is simple -- the storm was so big, it didn't have time enough to up its winds, especially once the dry air began really getting into the system right before the Bahamas.

I could go on about Lee being very costly too, or should be I should say, but I am not going to do that :P
GFS shows ALL OF THE CAPE VERDES RECURVING WHILE SHOWING THE CARRIBEAN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Im watching an argument on youtube right now. America v. Anti-Americans. For some reason its on Cyndi Lauper messes up on the National Anthem at the U.S. Open Tennis video, but one thing is certain, the Anti-US people are making stuff up like, " America has as much poverty as africa. Sry this is really of topic but what a disgrace.

Well, the US Census Bureau says that 46.2 million Americans (almost 1 in 6) currently live in poverty.....

I have no idea what the figures for "Africa" are.
But many people say "Africa" without distinguishing where they are talking about.
It's an entire Continent.....
Quoting txag91met:
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.





Done. :)
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
GFS shows ALL OF THE CAPE VERDES RECURVING WHILE SHOWING THE CARRIBEAN SYSTEM MOVING NORTH
This is what Basti11 has been saying all along!
585. JLPR2

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.
Quoting FrankZapper:
link please
Link
it makes no sense that the gfs recurves 3 Cape verde systems all east of 50W.... thats not right. at least it shows cape verde development. take with a grain of salt all of them form or recurve
Quoting JLPR2:

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.

So they're twins now? LOL.
589. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:
This season has been good for me. I got hit by Irene, tracked close Emily and Maria.. etc. I expect one more to get close to PR! :P!


If we do get affected again it will probably come from the south, like Omar in 2008.

Storms from the CV area seem ready to swim north.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I believe 1955 is considered to be the most ordinary year of all time. It was PLEASANTVILLE.



September 1959 was an extrordinary month.


"cause I was born!
mjo now shows neutral to negative on the atlantic side meaning favored upward motion. greens showing up. makes sense for the green off africa and western carribean
Quoting pottery:

Well, the US Census Bureau says that 46.2 million Americans (almost 1 in 6) currently live in poverty.....

I have no idea what the figures for "Africa" are.
But many people say "Africa" without distinguishing where they are talking about.
It's an entire Continent.....
And our government's idea of poverty is way way different than real poverty. No one in the US is going hungry, or without shelter unless they are way ignorant or mentally ill unlike many other places in the world where the resources are just not there to sustain life.
593. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

So they're twins now? LOL.


Well of course. Been calling them that since yesterday. Both are struggling TS, good enough for me. XD
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
mjo now shows neutral to negative on the atlantic side meaning favored upward motion. greens showing up. makes sense for the green off africa and western carribean
The MJO kicks butt!!
A billion just isn't what it used to be.
In all things, not only meteorologcally, as some way of comparing one disaster to another, it's just not as simple as looking to a conveniently large number to say it's "greater".
Even adjusted for inflation, the numbers alone don't tell the story. Times change....there weren't as many expensive homes by the coast as there are now. When Gloria blew through the NE, my home at the time was worth 50k, which is when I sold it. Today it's worth 1.4 million, even in a down housing market. It also didn't cost nearly as much to rebuild inland. What would have been a 30k loss to a home in years past is now a 250k re-construct. Especially in the NE. These factors, plus population shift from urban to suburban density, really need to be taken into account when comparing some storm in 1822 or 1964 to another in 2011.
Quoting JLPR2:


Well of course. Been calling them that since yesterday. Both are struggling TS, good enough for me. XD

Well, Maria is doing better. Still a hideous sight though XD
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So they're twins now? LOL.



Fraternal.
Quoting JLPR2:

Maria's twin in the WPac is doing slightly worse than her.


Is it just me, or do Western Pacific storms always look elongated, and scary? They are always in the bottom part of the satellite position :P
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
So they're twins now? LOL.



Fraternal.

Heheh.
Why the Cape Verde storms recurve? They don't understand that we need them in the caribbean... Come come come...
603. txjac
Bush Park fire update.

175 firefighters on the scene. There is NO water in the bayous to put the fire out with. Water is being flown and trucked in. Fire is moving NORTH (previously I said south) so it's moving away from my direction. There are tenative evacuation measures. The north side of highway 6 is closed. This thing just took off so freaking fast ...

I do have my valuables together so I'm pretty ready if I got to get out quickly
Hurricane Irene likely won't end up in the top 10 costliest hurricanes, but it wont be far behind either..

Quoting JLPR2:


If we do get affected again it will probably come from the south, like Omar in 2008.

Storms from the CV area seem ready to swim north.
I believe alot of this can be attributed to PensacolaDoug. I'm just sayin'...
Quoting txjac:
Bush Park fire update.

175 firefighters on the scene. There is NO water in the bayous to put the fire out with. Water is being flown and trucked in. Fire is moving NORTH (previously I said south) so it's moving away from my direction. There are tenative evacuation measures. The north side of highway 6 is closed. This thing just took off so freaking fast ...

I do have my valuables together so I'm pretty ready if I got to get out quickly


Stay safe! I live in Leon County where a big fire was last week. It is so scary to live in Texas now. We want rain so badly, but no lightning!!!!!
Quoting pottery:

That is absolutely true.
I did not mean to suggest differently.

In fact, one of the issues I have with rating "poverty" is that in many cases unrealistic expectations are assumed.

There are many people here who fall way below the 'official' poverty line.
But, like in the US, they are well fed, have a home, are healthy etc etc.
But they dont earn enough $$$ to pay tax!

It's all relevant.
+1
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.
What you said. LOL.
Quoting txag91met:
Houston is in a desperate situation. We have had 10" of rain this year, and we average 47" a year. Most people don't know this, but Houston is lush and has a lot of trees similar to Atlanta or any other city in the SE. Most of these pines are dead now. If we get a strong cold front in October, we could see an inferno break out across many neighborhoods and across this city.

Put in a good word up above and pray for rain here.

Thanks.




Totally agree! I live in the piney woods of East Texas. It is so dry here that I live in fear of a storm with lightning without a lot of rain. We had high winds in Leon County last weekend from Tropical Storm Lee and trees blew down and hit the power lines and started a huge fire. Our trees are sooooo stressed!
Quoting BDADUDE:
Caicos!!!!
616. txjac
Bush Park was an awesome place to go. Spent a lot of time there. My son played baseball there from 6-13 and then coached a team during his high school years. There is a large picnic area and plenty of places to walk and let the kids be kids. Also has a nice dog part that my Lylla loves to run in

618. JLPR2
What is happening in the Atl is happening in the WPac.
So far the West Pacific has only produced 5 typhoons, a little on the low side if you ask me.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

Well I was younger than you when I was younger than you but now I'm older than you because you are younger than me.

(well, it makes sense to me)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hurricane Irene likely won't end up in the top 10 costliest hurricanes, but it wont be far behind either..

As your chart indicates those are U.S. Landfall damage estimates, but a couple of those storms also caused billions in damage in the Caribbean. Wilma in Mexico as an example ( not sure figures there) but I know Ivan caused over (U.S$) 3 billion in insured damages just here in Cayman alone.
Quoting pottery:

Well I was younger than you when I was younger than you but now I'm older than you because you are younger than me.

(well, it makes sense to me)


and that's all that matters...

Seriously, I'm off to bed now, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

LOL I guess I'll go to sleep as well, unless I wanna get up 20 minutes late. XD
Good Night WU.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Yup and 90% of the world does not understand that, one of the reasons why getting into a good collage and making good grades matters so much.
Starting with learning how to spell college. LOL. Just making fun, not trying to offend.
I    think you are wright.
Quoting JLPR2:


If we do get affected again it will probably come from the south, like Omar in 2008.

Storms from the CV area seem ready to swim north.

Quoting presslord:


I have a residential tenant who insists on referring to herself as 'homeless'...because she doesn't own a home...she rents......it nearly makes my head explode...

Give her a weekend in Port-au-Prince.....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


and that's all that matters...

Seriously, I'm off to bed now, lol.

Yeah, me too!

Good night all.
Stay Safe.
Quoting pottery:

Give her a weekend in Port-au-Prince.....


precisely
55 deaths...

13-18 Billion (US plus Caribbean)

the cost of Irene....


Throughout its path, Irene caused widespread destruction and at least 55 deaths; monetary losses in the Caribbean could be as high as US$3.1 billion according to preliminary estimates.[7] Early damage estimates in the U.S. are about $10–15 billion.[8]
Quoting presslord:


I have a residential tenant who insists on referring to herself as 'homeless'...because she doesn't own a home...she rents......it nearly makes my head explode...
However I have seen some things that would make your head cave in. Ever see a dirt floor?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Probably get a bit of rain from that soon.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
However I have seen some things that would make your head cave in. Ever see a dirt floor?


Stayed in a cabin with one in Belize 20 or so years ago.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
However I have seen some things that would make your head cave in. Ever see a dirt floor?
Not many in the US.
Quoting twincomanche:
Not many in the US.


I lived in an apartment tower in Toronto at one time. One of the residents made a garden in his 25th floor apartment by putting down plastic sheeting, and then spreading dirt everywhere. He was growing vegetables. The plastic sprung a leak, which is how the indoor garden was found.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Well, Maria is doing better. Still a hideous sight though XD


Floods for Haiti and Dominican Republic. Maria has caused a lot of problems.
I wonder what it will be?

A trough coming to pick it up.

A front pushing it back north east.

neither and it goes into Mexico.



Of course, we will need to have the "it" first. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm headed off to bed, night older people, except for WNPR, who is younger than me, while MH09 is slightly older than me, and Levi is older than me, but some people are younger than me.

Night younger person.
Quoting JNCali:
Unfortunately our moral poverty far outweighs our economic poverty. A country can survive the latter much better than the former...
Not sure where you are from or if you are quoting someone, but if you are referring to the United States, you are wrong. Just because our leaders have lost their way the rest of us have not.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like she is finally done with PR. I hope there was little to no loss of lives.
Quoting twincomanche:
Not sure where you are from or if you are quoting someone, but if you are referring to the United States, you are wrong. Just because our leaders have lost their way the rest of us have not.

I'm in SoCal and most people are not kind unless it is convenient or benefits them in some way. I'm moving my family to TN next month because I don't want to raise my kids in this environment..
Quoting scooster67:
I wonder what it will be?

A trough coming to pick it up.

A front pushing it back north east.

neither and it goes into Mexico.



Of course, we will need to have the "it" first. :)
gfs and euro clearly make no sense when showing that cape verde wave recurving right away, they show a weakness in the high for a fast recurve yet we are going to be positive nao at the time which means a stronger bermuda high and no weakness...
Quoting JNCali:

I'm in SoCal and most people are not kind unless it is convenient or benefits them in some way. I'm moving my family to TN next month because I don't want to raise my kids in this environment..
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I disagree with both Jascott and you. While this season has not produced the amount of hurricanes that a typical season would, both of the hurricanes we've had have been deadly and costly. Hurricane Irene has killed at least 55 people, and the damage estimates are up to $10.1 billion.

When I mentioned Irene's stats, I wasn't thinking of the damage caused by the flooding. For comparison, Allison did tremendous damage in Houston killing a number of people all from its flooding rains. Allison's name was retired. It was just a tropical storm.

I'm defending what might be Jascott's point of view nonetheless. He may have a different outlook than me of course. At any rate.

I suppose one reason I am sticking with my opinion is that I am worn out by the news of disasters and their horrors. I don't think I have recovered from the calamities of the earthquakes in Haiti and Japan. Patrap posted a video shot by someone in a car floating in the tsunami not long ago. I wonder if they survived or if someone just found the video with their body. Maybe I would like to insulate myself from it all and just think of the physics of the storm. In that respect Irene's stats are intriguing but not particularly extreme for a hurricane.

Also worth considering is that compared to the earthquakes in Haiti and Japan, Irene's damage totals are not that overwhelming either. That may be a harsh statement to anyone who was left homeless by Irene or lost someone close to them, but I don't rate U.S. disasters only on a U.S. scale. I also don't rate hurricane disasters on a hurricane-only disaster scale either.

If I were somehow ignorant of the two tragedies I just mentioned, I might find Irene more imposing--not that I have any intention of diminishing the heartache that Irene has brought to people. I just have a hard time of forgetting the video of Port Au Prince showing a cloud of dust rising over the city, and I cannot forget the terror of the people in the many videos made of the tsunami.
Quoting twincomanche:
Not many in the US.
I have never been outside the North American continent.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
gfs and euro clearly make no sense when showing that cape verde wave recurving right away, they show a weakness in the high for a fast recurve yet we are going to be positive nao at the time which means a stronger bermuda high and no weakness...
I see what your saying. I was thinking some Caribbean mischief at that time and wondering where it might go. If that cap storm forms it will go west for a while.
Quoting twincomanche:
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.

Visited there in the spring and couldn't believe how many folks would smile and wave at a stranger (me) driving down the road. I'm also looking forward to some real weather..
Quoting scooster67:
Looks like she is finally done with PR. I hope there was little to no loss of lives.


For the moment I haven't heard of fatalities... only material ones....
collapsed bridges, lost homes....
659. DVG
Is Maria reforming a new center, or is that new blob just a temporary burst of convection?
The AO and NAO by week two is forecasted to plunge into negative territory which should weaken the Bermuda ridge and slacken the trade winds over the Caribbean. Deepening the troughs over the East. So we should watch the Western Caribbean rather then the coast of Africa.
To finish the evening off on a more appropriate note...
ECMWF is showing Maria impacting Maine on the 16th and then another system doing the same on the 20th.. 17th and 18th showing something for North TX... hopefully that will expand as we head to the weekend..
Night all
Hey everyone, Checking in for one sec...
So Maria still the same, Pathetic, but we could see Ophelia and Philippe in the next 10 days. Just got home from my team's first game. We lost, 6-12, but not dissipointed knowing that we lost 42-0 last season against the same team.
Quoting DVG:
Is Maria reforming a new center, or is that new blob just a temporary burst of convection?


Did a new center form in the south blob closer to Domincan Republic?
Maria's COC North in the Atlantic...


Quoting PLsandcrab:

Totally agree! I live in the piney woods of East Texas. It is so dry here that I live in fear of a storm with lightning without a lot of rain. We had high winds in Leon County last weekend from Tropical Storm Lee and trees blew down and hit the power lines and started a huge fire. Our trees are sooooo stressed!


It's the same way here in the Golden Triangle of SETX. I loved that slow soaker of a rain we got from TS Lee. But it was less than 2" here, so it helped a little, but only a very little, and for only a few days. A real rainstorm with the lighting that goes along with it could spell disaster.
21.9n67.9w, 22.1n67.9w have been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Maria's_12amGMT_ATCF
21.8n67.8w, 22.3n67.9w, 23.0n68.1w are now the most recent positions
Starting 13Sept_12amGMT and ending 14Sept_12amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the 14Sept_12amGMT straightline projection,
the coastline dumbbell at 44.395n67.9w-05ME is the endpoint of the straightline projection
on the
13Sept_6pmGMT*mapping connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 34.716n76.703w-MRH is the same for the 13Sept_12pmGMT*mapping.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6pmGMT then 12amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 8.3mph(13.8k/h) on a heading of 345.2degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over Belmar,NewJersey ~6days from now

Copy&paste 34.716n76.703w-mrh, 44.395n67.9w-05me, 21.1n67.4w-21.4n67.6w, 21.4n67.6w-21.8n67.8w, 21.8n67.8w-22.3n67.9w, 22.3n67.9w-23.0n68.1w, blm, 22.3n67.9w-40.178n74.012w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 13Sept_6pmGMT)

* The alteration of the endpoint of a TropicalCyclone's previous path also changes its previous travel-speed&heading, and the endpoint of its previous straightline projection.
In this case, the endpoints denoted by 44.395n67.9w-05ME and 34.716n76.703w-MRH have been individually shifted southward and westward...
...but I'm choosing to preserve the historicity of the mappings.
Interesting subject you all are discussing this evening
I have found most of what you would call the poor as in having very little financess or two paychecks from being homeless and most middle class or two paychecks from being poor my opinion anyway for what it might be worth

Looks to be a pretty strong front coming down this ways

48 hr forecast

Oh it might get alittle windy up the east coast in a couple of days forgot to mention that in previous post
thanks and good night
Uncle Sam sent me to all kinds of places off the N.A. continent.

Even paid me to go.
And in Puerto Rico as well.
I don't want to be too premature, but I think we may be out of the woods for this season needs in NW FL. Just experience and the feel of the air.. and many years
I feel the same. Irene and Lee were enough. Maybe a few more fish would be nice.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST September 14 2011
===============================

The low pressure area now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and coastal areas of West Bengal and Orissa with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels tilting southwestward with height.

Vortex over north Bay of Bengal moved westward and lies over northwest Bay of Bengal with center near 20.3N 87.5E.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0

Wind shear at this time is between 10-20 knots but cloud features indicates weakening signs. Associated broken intense convection over Jharkhand and northeast Orissa. Moderate to intense convection over northwest Bay of Bengal
Quoting robert88:
Troughs are unbelievable for this time of year. They are already making it into the Caribbean. There could be a good deal of shear in store for any disturbance that forms in that region. We could easily end up with one cane for the month of September. I have been tracking storms for about 26 years and this year has been quite boring for hurricanes in general. It's mainly been a bunch of struggling tropical storms with very weak on and off pulsating cores. Irene and Katia....meh. Their cores struggled as well and were quite unimpressive for the most part. You would think we would have seen at least one stadium effect eyewall by the peak of the season....especially going by the strong amount of majors we were expected to see by the expert forecasters. Wake me up when we have something like this to track.
Ah, I remember Igor. Entertaining storm to track.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #35
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
15:50 PM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (996 hPa) located at 24.6N 136.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 26.9N 131.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 27.4N 129.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 27.5N 128.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Japan Meteorological Agency will be issued at 18:50 PM JST..
Roke's LLC is excessively exposed. Most of the convection is at a distance to the west. It's an interesting observation that the ATL is at a break and the WPAC kicked off.
This is mesmerising. Igor had all the hallmarks of a powerful system. We have not yet seen one like this in the ATL.
Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).
Quoting fldude99:
I don't want to be too premature, but I think we may be out of the woods for this season needs in NW FL. Just experience and the feel of the air.. and many years


Then you should know the second half
Quoting Quadrantid:
Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).


Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?
Crap, won't let me modify my comment. I started to comment on NWFL, but elected not to but it put it in there anyhow. Guess I need to finish it...

You should know then that the second half of the season is usually pretty active for NWFL. Especially the first half of October...
Quoting Quadrantid:
Off topic warning, but since it's awfully quiet here, I thought I'd stir the pot a little -- here's a really interesting article from a big name astronomer here in Australia about the difference between how the media react to Astronomical results and Climate Change results.

I'm really lucky that I work in a field (Astronomy) where people's response is almost universally positive - the few bits of media attention my work has got (far smaller than that which prompted this article though!) have all been great fun, and not at all stressful. I can't imagine what it must be like to be a researcher into Climate Change, knowing how your results will be hammered in the press by people who don't agree with them - regardless of which side of the fence they come down.

Regardless of whether you think Climate Change is happening or not, or whether you think that man is having any influence on it, or not, surely you'd agree that pillorying people purely because their results don't fall into line with your ideas/beliefs is very, very wrong. It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;)).


Very good article, and

is that Parkes in the background? Certainly looks like 'the paddock'
Quoting BLee2333:


Then you should know the second half

Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?


Sadly, I think not -- it's just too far away. In fact, from what I can spot about it on the web, it's probably peaked in brightness. It's still a pretty awesome story, though, to catch it so soon after detonation - there'll be loads of great new science that'll come out of the study of it :)

Fingers crossed we get a closer one some time soon -- I'd love to see a proper naked-eye nova or supernova :) Sadly, I was still a kid, and nothern-hemisphere bound when 1987A happened, so I never got to see that!
Quoting ktymisty:


Very good article, and

is that Parkes in the background? Certainly looks like 'the paddock'


Looks like it to me -- I need to make an effort to get out there while I'm working here. Might be hard to sell a trip to the Dish to my gf, though - think she's more interested in visiting the Barrier Reef and Kangeroo Island, for some reason ;)
Yes, interesting article.

Whether the Diamond Planet is real or not, things on Earth are not affected by the discovery.(except maybe the price of diamonds might go down.......jk)
But with CC/AGW we could be dealing with a future worse than a post-nuclear one. Who knows?
Quoting FrankZapper:
Yes, interesting article.

Whether the Diamond Planet is real or not, things on Earth are not affected by the discovery.(except maybe the price of diamonds might go down.......jk)
But with CC/AGW we could be dealing with a future worse than a post-nuclear one. Who knows?


Oh, I know that :) But that doesn't justify the unpleasantness that happens around the Climate Change debate.

An interesting thought occurred to me after I posted that article - thinking back, I can't think of a single scientist I know personally who thinks that the climate isn't changing (and I should caution that I know no climate scientists, so no experts on the subject). Similarly, I can't think of any single scientist I've discussed it with (usually at the pub) who would argue that that change is anything other than man made - among the people I work with, at least, its generally accepted that that is the single best explanation for the evidence we've seen. That said, I wouldn't say a single one of us [i]believes[/i] in man-made climate change - that's just not how science works.

The reason that's interesting to me is that when I think about the friends I have who aren't scientists, they're much more divided on the issue. Sure, there are more of them who think the climate is changing than those who think it isn't, but there's still debate there. These include some of the brightest people I know, and so I find it really interesting that there's such a glaring difference in the way that the issue is viewed, just among my friends, between those who are scientists, and those who aren't. Maybe it's down to the way things are played out in the media, or maybe I do know some scientists who disagree with man-made climate change, but they feel peer pressure to remain silent when we're at the pub (though I really hope not! and, to be honest, I doubt it -- most of my mates are an argumentative bunch, so they'd be likely to shout all the louder if they disagreed ;)). I don't know -- but it's an interesting thought/observation :)
695 Quadrantid "It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;) ."

Most of the prominent members on the Board of Inquisition had previously also been subject to an Inquisition themselves. The Renaissance equivalent of the grilling one would receive to obtain a PhD nowadays, so to speak. And basicly, they gave him a pass.

What got Galileo into trouble was a certain lack of people skills, and a far far more abysmal (as in "What deep dark hole did you just climb out of?") understanding of international politics.
The Pope had asked him some cogent questions about his theory. Galileo answered by publishing a treatise in which those same questions were asked by "The Idiot".
Which unfortunately put the Pope in a bind: let followers think that the Head of the Church allows people to slander&insult the Maker of Kings -- the Pope played both roles in WesternEurope at the time -- or punish Galileo for his (knowing or not) impertinence. The "punishment" of house arrest was about as mild as the Pope could get away with considering the times and the political implications.
Quoting Quadrantid:


Looks like it to me -- I need to make an effort to get out there while I'm working here. Might be hard to sell a trip to the Dish to my gf, though - think she's more interested in visiting the Barrier Reef and Kangeroo Island, for some reason ;)


Stay in Sydney, travel through the Blue Mountains National Park ( world heritage and all ). Drive through to Dubbo and check out the old goldfields ( might find enough for a ring hehehehe ) then on to Parkes for the telescope...a couple of days out west with history and warm sunny days..and even might find a nugget or two
Quoting Quadrantid:


Sadly, I think not -- it's just too far away. In fact, from what I can spot about it on the web, it's probably peaked in brightness. It's still a pretty awesome story, though, to catch it so soon after detonation - there'll be loads of great new science that'll come out of the study of it :)

Fingers crossed we get a closer one some time soon -- I'd love to see a proper naked-eye nova or supernova :) Sadly, I was still a kid, and nothern-hemisphere bound when 1987A happened, so I never got to see that!


Mine will be crossed with you. I missed out on 87 as well. (Still in High School)
TS.Maria's_6amGMT_ATCF : Starting 13Sept_6amGMT and ending 14Sept_6amGMT

The 4 southeastern line-segments represent TropicalStormMaria's path,
the northwesternmost line-segment is the straightline projection for 14Sept_6amGMT,
the coastline blob at 40.178n74.012w-blm is the endpoint of the 14Sept_12amGMT
straightline projection connected to its nearest airport,
and the coastline blob at 44.395n67.9w-05me is the same for the 13Sept_6pmGMT*mapping

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12amGMT then 6amGMT :
TS.Maria's travel-speed was 10.2mph(16.4k/h) on a heading of 335.3degrees(NNW)
TS.Maria was headed toward passage over Corolla,NorthCarolina ~3days22hours from now
(on the Virginia border)

Copy&paste 44.395n67.9w-05me, 40.178n74.012w-blm, 21.4n67.6w-21.8n67.8w, 21.8n67.8w-22.3n67.9w, 22.3n67.9w-23.0n68.1w, 23.0n68.1w-23.8n68.5w, konx, 23.0n68.1w-36.522n75.862w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 14Sept_12amGMT)
Quoting aspectre:
695 Quadrantid "It's no different, in fact, to the way Galileo was treated in my own field, purely for talking about his results (and being a contrary, argumentative sod, too, but we don't mention that ;) ."

Most of the prominent members of the Board of Inquisition were also previously subject to an Inquisition themselves. The Renaissance equivalent of the grilling one would receive to obtain a PhD nowadays, so to speak. And basicly, they gave him a pass.

What got Galileo into trouble was a certain lack of people skills, and an even more abysmal understanding of the politics of Statehood.
The Pope had asked him some cogent questions about his theory. And Galileo answered by publishing a treatise in which those same questions were asked by "The Idiot".
Which unfortunately put the Pope in a bind: let followers think that the Head of the Church allows people to slander&insult the Maker of Kings -- the Pope played both roles in WesternEurope at the time -- or punish Galileo for his (knowing or not) impertinence. The "punishment" of house arrest was about as mild as the Pope could get away with considering the times and the political implications.


Interesting :) It's been a fair while since I've read much about Galileo's arguments with the church (in fact, it's probably been more than a decade :) I knew that his cantankerous and confrontational behaviour had played a role in his punishment (which is a salutory lesson for both sides of the Climate Change debate, actually -- you're more likely to get people to see your point of view if you don't abuse them :P) - though I hadn't realised quite how much so :P

It's interesting that so many of the "big name" scientists from back then were very difficult characters - Newton and Hooke spring to mind, among others. That said, my girlfriend (who's a biologist) has often remarked on how many of my colleagues in the different physics/astro departments I've worked in were somewhat socially lacking - there's definitely still some truth in the fact that physics attracts more than its fair share of difficult characters ;)
Quoting ktymisty:


Stay in Sydney, travel through the Blue Mountains National Park ( world heritage and all ). Drive through to Dubbo and check out the old goldfields ( might find enough for a ring hehehehe ) then on to Parkes for the telescope...a couple of days out west with history and warm sunny days..and even might find a nugget or two


Been up to the Blue Mountains already (though both times I've been up there with my good lady, it's done nothing but rain ;)). I'm definitely going to have to take her with me the next time I go up to the AAT, if she can get some leave (and if my boss is ok with it!). The road trip up from Sydney to the observatory is just awesome - especially coming from a country where a two hour drive is considered a really long way! Seven hours, or so, from UNSW to Siding Spring, going out through the Blue Mountains then turning north - it's just awesome, and really drives it home just how big and empty this place is compared to the UK :D Will have to drag her out to the goldfields at some point, though - though I suspect she'll make the same kind of ring comments... she keeps on hinting about rings, for some reason - I can't quite work it out, myself - after all, she's never been all that keen on jewelery before ;)
Quoting Quadrantid:


Oh, I know that :) But that doesn't justify the unpleasantness that happens around the Climate Change debate.

An interesting thought occurred to me after I posted that article - thinking back, I can't think of a single scientist I know personally who thinks that the climate isn't changing (and I should caution that I know no climate scientists, so no experts on the subject). Similarly, I can't think of any single scientist I've discussed it with (usually at the pub) who would argue that that change is anything other than man made - among the people I work with, at least, its generally accepted that that is the single best explanation for the evidence we've seen. That said, I wouldn't say a single one of us [i]believes[/i] in man-made climate change - that's just not how science works.

The reason that's interesting to me is that when I think about the friends I have who aren't scientists, they're much more divided on the issue. Sure, there are more of them who think the climate is changing than those who think it isn't, but there's still debate there. These include some of the brightest people I know, and so I find it really interesting that there's such a glaring difference in the way that the issue is viewed, just among my friends, between those who are scientists, and those who aren't. Maybe it's down to the way things are played out in the media, or maybe I do know some scientists who disagree with man-made climate change, but they feel peer pressure to remain silent when we're at the pub (though I really hope not! and, to be honest, I doubt it -- most of my mates are an argumentative bunch, so they'd be likely to shout all the louder if they disagreed ;)). I don't know -- but it's an interesting thought/observation :)
The CC debate is evolving, and politics, big business and religion are stepping in IMO. On this blog opinions are about 60/40 proCC. Unfortunately a few CC proponents are overzealous, and seem to harp on the subject alienating those on the fence.

Yes astronomy is a much better field. As is particle physics.

In the iconic movie "The Graduate" he tells the graduate one word about his future........ "plastics". I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ "Gravity".
Quoting Quadrantid:


Been up to the Blue Mountains already (though both times I've been up there with my good lady, it's done nothing but rain ;)). I'm definitely going to have to take her with me the next time I go up to the AAT, if she can get some leave (and if my boss is ok with it!). The road trip up from Sydney to the observatory is just awesome - especially coming from a country where a two hour drive is considered a really long way! Seven hours, or so, from UNSW to Siding Spring, going out through the Blue Mountains then turning north - it's just awesome, and really drives it home just how big and empty this place is compared to the UK :D Will have to drag her out to the goldfields at some point, though - though I suspect she'll make the same kind of ring comments... she keeps on hinting about rings, for some reason - I can't quite work it out, myself - after all, she's never been all that keen on jewelery before ;)


Yeah I agree the Blue Mountains are really nice. To bad to hear it rained both times you went up ):. I just recently went up to the Blue Mountains with a group of people from UNSW to do some longboard skateboarding on some of the empty roads which was heaps fun plus we had good weather. I also like the road trip to Siding Spring and the area itself is quite nice. I just like getting out of Sydney period. Hopefully we will have nice warm weather this summer, so I can enjoying the beach for surfing. I wonder if this year will be an active stormy season for NSW and if Queensland will yet again be hit by more tropical cyclones eh?
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
15:00 PM JST September 14 2011
================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 21.0N 124.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving southeast slowly

Meanwhile, another Tropical Depression (1010 hPa) located at 20.0N 154.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #36
TROPICAL STORM ROKE (T1115)
18:50 PM JST September 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In Sea South Of Japan

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Roke (996 hPa) located at 25.0N 136.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center in east quadrant
120 NM from the center in west quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=====================

24 HRS: 27.0N 131.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 27.4N 129.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 27.5N 128.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Quoting Astrophysics:


Yeah I agree the Blue Mountains are really nice. To bad to hear it rained both times you went up ):. I just recently went up to the Blue Mountains with a group of people from UNSW to do some longboard skateboarding on some of the empty roads which was heaps fun plus we had good weather. I also like the road trip to Siding Spring and the area itself is quite nice. I just like getting out of Sydney period. Hopefully we will have nice warm weather this summer, so I can enjoying the beach for surfing. I wonder if this year will be an active stormy season for NSW and if Queensland will yet again be hit by more tropical cyclones eh?


Will have to tell you all about New Zealand next time we grab lunch -- I might actually make it into the office tomorrow, rather than being stuck here working ;)

We're looking like heading back to La Nina, so I reckon it'll be another stormy season for Queensland. Hoping we get more exciting thunderstorms this year -- apparently last year was relatively restrained from that point of view :)

Interestingly, just spoke to my folks on Skye in the UK, and they said the tail end of Katia was really overblown and a total non-event. It was no more windy than a normal storm there (which makes sense, since it was only 970ish), though it was a bit worse in central/southern Scotland
709 FrankZapper "In the iconic movie The Graduate he tells the graduate one word about his future........ 'plastics'. I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ 'Gravity'."

Especially if the Higgs fails to show up at the LargeHadronCollider and/or gravity waves fail to show up at LIGO/etc under circumstances in which "it definitely should have" (eg Betelgeuse going supernova).
If either or both were to occur, it'd once again become time for a new "Newton/Einstein" to remake the Universe in his/her own image.
is maria behind schedule?
Quoting Quadrantid:


Will have to tell you all about New Zealand next time we grab lunch -- I might actually make it into the office tomorrow, rather than being stuck here working ;)

We're looking like heading back to La Nina, so I reckon it'll be another stormy season for Queensland. Hoping we get more exciting thunderstorms this year -- apparently last year was relatively restrained from that point of view :)

Interestingly, just spoke to my folks on Skye in the UK, and they said the tail end of Katia was really overblown and a total non-event. It was no more windy than a normal storm there (which makes sense, since it was only 970ish), though it was a bit worse in central/southern Scotland


Wow I didn't realize we were heading back to a La Nina. I definitely want to see more thunderstorms, I miss the ones in Florida we get almost every summer arvo. I'll be heading back home most likely in December but that's winter time so I won't see the summer thunderstorms ): If you are in tomorrow then definitely we should get some lunch. Very interested to hear how your ski trip in New Zealand went. Yeah 970mb isn't really that low for typical winter storms the UK experiences but that pressure is common for a moderately strong cat 1 hurricane.
Quoting islander101010:
is maria behind schedule?
about 8 days
Quoting Astrophysics:


Wow I didn't realize we were heading back to a La Nina. I definitely want to see more thunderstorms, I miss the ones in Florida we get almost every summer arvo. I'll be heading back home most likely in December but that's winter time so I won't see the summer thunderstorms ): If you are in tomorrow then definitely we should get some lunch. Very interested to hear how your ski trip in New Zealand went. Yeah 970mb isn't really that low for typical winter storms the UK experiences but that pressure is common for a moderately strong cat 1 hurricane.
back to fl. in dec thankfully in time to see the allman brothers at wanne april 13
Good morning, all. Another super hot day to be had here.
Good morning.

A beautiful sunny morning in Puerto Rico contrasts with what occured yesterday when the tail of Maria was causing the massive floodings. The rivers are slowly going down and all is returning to normal.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning.

A beautiful sunny morning in Puerto Rico contrasts with what occured yesterday when the tail of Maria was causing the massive floodings. The rivers are slowly going down and all is returning to normal.


Good to hear. It really looked like you guys were being pounded with rain from Maria.
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms


I typed a reply and then deleted it. Thinks about my stash, come mid November I think we'll have a party here with it.
Quoting kipperedherring:
I believe alot of this can be attributed to PensacolaDoug. I'm just sayin'...



I'll bake ya a cake!
Quoting Bielle:


I lived in an apartment tower in Toronto at one time. One of the residents made a garden in his 25th floor apartment by putting down plastic sheeting, and then spreading dirt everywhere. He was growing vegetables. The plastic sprung a leak, which is how the indoor garden was found.



What was he growing? I'm guessing not tomatoes.
I'm off. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
Wow, not even 200 posts since I left last night, lol.

I knew Maria would be a little stronger this morning, and should be stronger still as we go to bed last night, since shear has let up. There is still a chance for hurricane status, especially over the next 24 hours.
TROPICAL STORM MARIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 31A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
800 AM AST WED SEP 14 2011

...MARIA REPOSITIONED TO THE WEST...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 69.0W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ENE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
If the NHC says Maria was repositioned west then why do they have her movement NNW? Maria is 60mph. I think she becomes a hurricane. This looks bad for Canada.
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms


I thought people were saying a big storm was going to form in the Caribbean?
even if a big storm does form there, regardless of if there is low to moderate shear and warm water temps, there would be plenty of dry air for any system to contend with.

been a large high pressure past few days pumping in drier air. atmosphere needs to moisten a bit.
The only sign of tropical activity ,apart from Maria is a 1010 mb low pressure embedded in the monsoon trough near 11N 20W.None of the global models have latched on this slowly organising area of disturbed weather.
on water vapor imagery of the Atlantic, you can see Maria getting squeezed.

and lol at the 8 days late comment, she certainly didn't follow the plan, taking her sweet time to move on out of the caribbean.
Sudan: Heavy Rains in N. Bahr El Ghazal Displace Thousands Amid High Food Prices
Still waves over there..
Quoting thisishsyterical:
looks like this active season is finnally over thank god it was one terrbile season to many storms
The 'Season' as you put it hasn't even started yet in the NW / SW Caribbean



Maria getting some convection over LLC
"is maria behind schedule"

"about 8 days"

I would start thinking about a pregnancy kit If I were her!
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



Maria getting some convection over LLC
She would have been a formidable storm if the shear was not so fast.
trust me the season aint over by a long shot!!! who has the chart to remind these people!
you said it perfectly. exactly correct

just because the oceans are dormant right now, do not expect that to continue especially with a La Nina in play

some yellow, orange and red circles should be appearing soon on the NHC website!! :)
Amazing how slow the blog has become over the last couple days...


I do not think this got a lot of press, but UTMB in Galveston has been conducting a study since Ike paid a visit to town about the effects on adolescents of evacuating vs. not evacuating for a storm. I have included a couple of links, I will let everyone decide for themselves what they think but I did find it interesting. The first link is to a Youtube video about it the second is from as local station KUHF

UTMB Youtube

KUHF article

Man I actually was able to just work in a mental health point into a weather blog. This actually might make a good point for Dr. M to consider for a future blog of his....
Seein' as how the blog needs a wake-me-up this morning...

* * * TEXAS * * * KingsRanch to be precise. Are we awake yet? ;-)
lol...this blog has become super slow

if there were upcoming storms or especially current storms with a possible threat to land, there would have been at least 4,000 posts by now!! :)
Quoting aspectre:
Seein' as how the blog needs a wake-me-up this morning...

* * * TEXAS * * * KingsRanch to be precise. Are we awake yet? ;-)


That looks like Baton Rouge to me, what are we looking at anyways?
97L could be in the making southeast of the cape verde islands. the area is showing signs of organisation with good cyclonic turning.IIN 22W
Good Morning
An article in our local Keys paper, full article can be found at www.keysnews.com

KEY LARGO — A combination of atmospheric conditions have helped steer tropical storm activity away from
the Florida Keys so far this
year, but weather experts caution against being too confident until after October.
Rizzo warns Floridians not
to become complacent in
early autumn since cyclonic
storms tend to form suddenly in a “Genesis region” near
Venezuela. These storms tend
to travel north in October,
rather than northwesterly as
they do in summer.
“On TV you see storms that
form off Africa and watch their
progress for 10 or 12 days and
have plenty of time to prepare.
In October, you may have 36 to
48 hours [of warning with the
Southern Caribbean storms],”
he said. “They go northerly,
not westerly, and then the fall
cold fronts [that sweep from
the northwest] tend to push
them toward Florida.”
753. jpsb
Quoting LillyMyrrh:


It's the same way here in the Golden Triangle of SETX. I loved that slow soaker of a rain we got from TS Lee. But it was less than 2" here, so it helped a little, but only a very little, and for only a few days. A real rainstorm with the lighting that goes along with it could spell disaster.
You got 2 inches lucky you! Here in San Leon we got maybe 1/2 inch :( not looking good for any rain any time soon here.

ESL by LSU GOES-13 Atlantic view

click image for loop

Quoting jpsb:
You got 2 inches lucky you! Here in San Leon we got maybe 1/2 inch :( not looking good for any rain any time soon here.


Only 0.14" near FM 646 and I-45
Quoting twincomanche:
TN will welcome you. Good choice. That's part of real America.



ummmmmmm,I don't want to sound.geez Im not sure of the right word there.I live in Soo Cal,is that part of "real america"? Let me know where I need to be in the USA to be in "real america", as I don't want to be in the wrong area.I want to be "really" American.


As expected, P26L was absorbed by Maria.

P27L should be one of the key ingredients for a possible TC development in the W/NW Carib. by next week.
760. jpsb
Quoting BLee2333:


Then you should know the second half

Hey, in your opinion, do you think that supernova will reach a level bright enough to be seen with the naked eye?
The Earth could soon have a second sun, at least for a week or two.

The cosmic phenomenon will happen when one of the brightest stars in the night sky explodes into a supernova.

And, according to a report yesterday, the most stunning light show in the planet’s history could happen as soon as this year.



Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-134 9383/Betelgeuse-second-sun-Earth-supernova-turns-n ight-day.html#ixzz1Xw1TmUrK
New Blog.
762. jpsb
Quoting FrankZapper:
The CC debate is evolving, and politics, big business and religion are stepping in IMO. On this blog opinions are about 60/40 proCC. Unfortunately a few CC proponents are overzealous, and seem to harp on the subject alienating those on the fence.

Yes astronomy is a much better field. As is particle physics.

In the iconic movie "The Graduate" he tells the graduate one word about his future........ "plastics". I say to Astronomers and Physicists........ "Gravity".
I can believe we are having a resonable dicussion! hope I don't ruin that. I am inclined not to believe in AGW, however I am not certain in that believe, as I think more research needs to be done to explain the lack of predicted warming over the last ten years or so. I do not think I am being unreasonable, but the quite a few AGW believers think I am an idiotic heretic, lol. According to them it is settled science. Well I am not a scientist (just a math guy) but doesn't a theory have to be provable? And isn't not one of the proofs predicting accurately future events pertanate to the theory?