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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Little change to Kyle; Western Caribbean disturbance may threaten Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:29 PM GMT on September 27, 2008

Tropical Storm Kyle has intensified to a 70 mph tropical storm in the face of about 20 knots of hostile wind shear. However, visible satellite loops show little change in the appearance of Kyle today, and for now the shear is keeping the storm just below hurricane strength. The latest Hurricane Hunter mission's center fix at 10:37 am EDT found that the pressure had risen to 999 mb, which is quite high for a strong tropical storm. Top surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument were in the 60-70 mph range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Kyle.

The forecast
Wind shear is forecast to increase to 25 knots today and remain at least 25 knots for the remainder of Kyle's life. That is high shear, but the upper-level winds over Kyle creating this shear will also be spreading out horizontally as they pass over the storm. When upper-level winds diverge like this, it creates a suction effect that acts to intensify the updrafts in the thunderstorms beneath. Thus, this "upper-level divergence" will act to intensify Kyle. It remains to be seen whether the upper-level divergence will be strong enough to overcome the shear and allow Kyle to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane, as the GFDL, HWRF, and SHIPS intensity models have consistently been predicting. Given the storm's current struggle to organize, I doubt Kyle will ever attain hurricane strength.

Kyle's storm surge
Storm surge should not be a major issue with Kyle. If it makes landfall in the Maine/New Brunswick region as a Category 1 hurricane, it would likely generate a storm surge in the 3-5 foot range, according to NOAA's SLOSH model. Given that the range between low tide and high tide is at least 12 feet in the region, Kyle would have to hit very close to high tide to cause any storm surge flooding. Kyle's likely impact as a tropical storm makes surge flooding problems improbable. Hurricane Edna of 1954, which hit just west of Eastport, Maine, as a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds, generated a storm surge of just 3.4 feet at Eastport. If Kyle hits Nova Scotia as a Category 1 hurricane or tropical storm, a storm surge of 1-3 feet is likely. Hurricane Juan of 2003, which hit Halifax, Nova Scotia as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds, generated a storm surge of 4.9 feet in Halifax.

Kyle's winds
Kyle's cone of uncertainty covers the eastern coast of Maine and the western half of the coast of Nova Scotia. Recent model runs have trended to take Kyle a little more to the west, near the Maine/New Brunswick border. given the tendency of the models in recent runs to flip-flop, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the forecast track shift back to Nova Scotia in future runs. This province will probably get Kyle's worst winds and rain, since wind shear is keeping Kyle's heaviest thunderstorms on the east side of the storm. My best guess is a landfall in western Nova Scotia as a tropical storm with 45-55 mph winds. The latest runs of the GFDL and HWRF models bring tropical storm-force winds of 40 mph to Cape Cod, Nantucket, and the entire Maine coast, as well as western Nova Scotia and eastern New Brunswick. The strongest Kyle is likely to be at landfall is a 65 mph tropical storm, as forecast by the GFDL model.

Kyle's rains
Kyle's main threat is heavy rain. Kyle's rains will primarily affect Nova Scotia and New Brunswick at landfall on Monday morning. However, Kyle should pull copious amounts of tropical moisture and the remains of the unnamed storm that hit South Carolina Thursday northwards into Canada and northern New England. This will create potential flooding problems early next week in the region. NOAA is forecasting up to five inches of rain could fall in New England over the next five days (Figure 2).


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts for the 5-day period ending 8 am Thursday 10/2/08. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Links to follow
Provincetown, MA weather
Bar Harbor, ME weather
Yarmouth, Nova Scotia weather

Yucatan disturbance may threaten western Florida next week
A 1008 mb low pressure system in the Western Caribbean, just east of Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. Visible satellite images show a modest-sized area of heavy thunderstorms that is currently not increasing in size. QuikSCAT from this morning showed top winds near 45 mph offshore of Belize in the heaviest thunderstorm activity, but no sign of a surface circulation. Wind shear is about 10-20 knots over the region, which is low enough to allow some slow development. NHC is giving this system a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict the low will start to develop over the next few days, although interaction with the landmass of the Yucatan Peninsula will be a problem for it. The low should lift northeastwards beginning Monday, and the west coast of Florida can anticipate heavy rains from this system by Wednesday. NOAA is predicting up to four inches of rain may fall over southern Florida (Figure 2). Due to the very high wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico, this storm will not be a threat to the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward.


Figure 3. Super Typhoon Jangmi at 3:30 am EDT Saturday, 9/27/08. Image credit: NOAA.

Super Typhoon Jangmi takes aim at Taiwan
Super Typhoon Jangmi put on an impressive burst of rapid intensification yesterday, and now stands as an extremely dangerous Category 4 Super Typhoon with 155 mph winds. Jangmi is expected to hit Taiwan Sunday as a Category 4 typhoon. Jangmi is tied with May's Super Typhoon Rammasun as the strongest tropical cyclone on the planet this year. There have not yet been any Category 5 storms anywhere on Earth this year, which is unusual.

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort along with Patrap and StormJunkie, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. We're up to $4800 so far. The effort has raised a grand total of $25,000 so far. Great work, everyone!


Figure 3. The town of Bridge City was inundated with a massive storm surge even though it was far displaced from Ike's landfall point. This speaks to just how massive Ike was. The people of Bridge City, Winnie, and other small towns in Ike's path will need help for a long time to come: www.portlight.org. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

You can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


98W
502. 7544
Quoting HurrikanEB:
WHOA! massive picture

just poppin in b4 bed

444. Ron5244 3:00 AM GMT on September 28, 2008
what the heck is that thing off of florida?!



as that gfdl for real or a joke can i get the link to that thanks
Link this one looks kinda scary for S Fl hope its wrong.
look at the date
505. 7544
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Link this one looks kinda scary for S Fl hope its wrong.
belive it or not that model has shown a strong
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Link this one looks kinda scary for S Fl hope its wrong.


yeap that model has shown that strong strom over cuba for 5 runs stright and the others are also showing it but not as strong so maybe the run taht ron posted for the gfdl wasnt a fake bit it does look too perfect lol idk
Was from midnight last night? I didnt notice that. Well good hope it doesnt develope it in next runs.
Link cmc showing something strong as well. Link
5am eastern this about an hour ago in taiwan,Link where is cantore LOL
getting windy in Taipei


Link
landfall, I don't know if this map refreshes or not, so by the time you guys get up it may have passed over,

Link
well those links do refresh, bugger, oh well
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well. I'm trying to decide if I need to take any action today in preparation for what's coming our way next week.
Morning everyone.

Kyle's kept at himself at a hurricane for now, though doubt that will last for all that much longer. Expected to become extratropical in about 24 hours, perhaps prior to landfall?

Kyle does look like a mess at the moment, but not totally surprising.

Jangmi looks like it has a bizarre track, but with it hovering over the northern coast of Taiwan, that area's going to take quite the beating. Prayers for all those in its way.
Quoting Cotillion:
Morning everyone.

Kyle's kept at himself at a hurricane for now, though doubt that will last for all that much longer. Expected to become extratropical in about 24 hours, perhaps prior to landfall?

Kyle does look like a mess at the moment, but not totally surprising.

Jangmi looks like it has a bizarre track, but with it hovering over the northern coast of Taiwan, that area's going to take quite the beating. Prayers for all those in its way.


I was looking for some radar sites in Tiawan and ran across a statement about the last typhoon to affect then.. a couple weeks ago. The northern part of the island go 20+ inches.. now this.
Quoting indianrivguy:


I was looking for some radar sites in Tiawan and ran across a statement about the last typhoon to affect then.. a couple weeks ago. The northern part of the island go 20+ inches.. now this.


Yeah, Sinlaku lingered a long time. Saw on the news here images of bridges over rivers being taken out as the rivers swelled and raged from the rain.

This one seems to be moving much faster. But still...
Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau Radar
Nice radar link and precip map Daai, thanks.. are you in Taiwan now?

I need to work on my mm to inches conversions :)
Nah, I'm in HK. We only got sideswiped by Hagupit which makes me glad the trough that forced Hagupit west disappeared.

And roughly 25 mm to 1 in.

Oh and the mention of Typhoon Sinlaku made me wander over to youtube to see whether TyphoonHunter had posted any video of his last trip to Taiwan.

James Reynolds and Sinlaku (Cantore, eat your heart out.)

and this storm is even bigger than Sinlaku.
dang.. James Reynolds has some good footage there.. I am pretty grateful I haven't had to deal with that since Wilma.... I'm about to sacrifice a sammich to the storm Gods to keep this mess by Yucatan from becoming more than a wet event here in Florida.

Nice stuff Daai, thanks.
517. DaaiTouLaam ....how many people inhabit Taiwan? evacuation is obviously not an option?
Quoting indianrivguy:
dang.. James Reynolds has some good footage there.. I am pretty grateful I haven't had to deal with that since Wilma.... I'm about to sacrifice a sammich to the storm Gods to keep this mess by Yucatan from becoming more than a wet event here in Florida.

Nice stuff Daai, thanks.
I hope that was a good samich...lol...mornin Indianriverguy
Lurker Ike, Kman,
There is now some vorticity, low level convergence and upper level divergence with the Yucatan disturbance.
1006mb, am I reading that right? Anyone have any info on the shear forecast for the next 5 days or so? Thanks
Why did the NHC take off that one possibly subtropical system?
could somone get me a longrange radar loop of Kyle please?
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
Why did the NHC take off that one possibly subtropical system?


They didn't, Orange alert for the Sub-Tropical system.
Azores disturbance moved to Orange.

May be another 'Jerry'. Which to me, was a total waste of a name. But, we shall see.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...39.3 N...68.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB.

Kyle strengthens.
525. Now I see, but it wasn't there at 5:00am.
Azores low might be what the ASP would tour needs at Mundaca Spain this wk for the professional surf contest. We will see.
Quoting tkeith:
517. DaaiTouLaam ....how many people inhabit Taiwan? evacuation is obviously not an option?


23 million or so. And evacuation? To where?

and this is 6th typhoon to hit Taiwan this year. and if you watched the video I linked above from Sinlaku, that was only 2 weeks ago. So not much time to clean up and catch your breath.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They didn't, Orange alert for the Sub-Tropical system.




If it keeps going say hi to Laura
Cycloon... I perused all the nexrad sites and none really show anything about Kyle.. in fact, the weather Kyle is pushing before it is very different than what "I" would expect here in Florida. It is not moving with the windfeild of Kyle, but is moving along the cold front before Kyle. The Boston 248nm radar is showing the outer bands and may get better as Kyle passes bye.

thank you indianrivguy :)
If the yucatan system could get its act together not only does it have the warmest water in the basin under it, it has alot of energy it could drag out of the e pac. Past wk my arms have felt like rubber.
Even though it's strengthening, why is the NHC saying that Kyle is going to weaken later today in to a ts?
536. Vero1
Quoting leftovers:
If the yucatan system could get its act together not only does it have the warmest water in the basin under it, it has alot of energy it could drag out of the e pac. Past wk my arms have felt like rubber.


DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES
THROUGH NORTHWESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A JET STREAM OF UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW STARTS IN THE WATERS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WITH 30 TO 45 KT...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...EVENTUALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEYOND 32N74W. THE FAST WINDS SPEEDS OF 60 KT TO 80 KT
WINDS ARE WITHIN 75 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N83W BEYOND 32N74W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON SIDE
OF 32N72W 23N83W 17N89W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE JET STREAM.

538. Vero1
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:




If it keeps going say hi to Laura


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N47W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N31W TO
24N40W TO 23N51W. A 993 MB STORM CENTER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 37N42W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE FORECAST WITH THIS LOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE
THAT MARKS THE FRONT...31N33W 25N40W 22N50W 23N56W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THE 51W/52W WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W.

$$
MT

anything that could threaten florida in the next week or so?
Just checking in this fine Sunday morning.

The Azores low has grabbed my interest as it appears that deep convection has developed and wrapping around the circulation center this morning. It currently resides over 77-79 degree water temps, which aren't too favorable for tropical development, but its possible. This system has been trying to lose the frontal feature attached to it and has been moving WSW over the past 24 hours. If it can lose the frontal boundary and continue moving WSW, then conversion into a subtropical/tropical storm could be quite possible.

In analyzing the computer models, this may be what the models have been depicting over the Central Atlantic for the past few days. This is going to be a major marine concern as this has a very powerful circulation and could create very treacherous seas.



Now, onto the Yucatan disturbance. In analyzing satellite imagery and surface data, there is a closed surface circulation, but it remains rather broad at this time. Through my analysis, it appears the circulation center is under the strong thunderstorm activity off the coast. I'm fully expecting this area to be declared an invest later today and development into a tropical depression by tomorrow afternoon.

With the latest computer model runs, they all seem to agree on some tropical development with this disturbance. But, the main difference between the models exist on the timing and location of the development. Based upon my observations, it appears that development would begin in the Northwest Caribbean near the Yucatan Channel and would move NE towards Southern Florida.



Elsewhere in the tropics, there are no other areas of concern or interest for that matter.
Quoting Vero1:


THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 24N47W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N31W TO
24N40W TO 23N51W. A 993 MB STORM CENTER LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 37N42W. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WERE FORECAST WITH THIS LOW
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE CLOUD LINE
THAT MARKS THE FRONT...31N33W 25N40W 22N50W 23N56W. A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 24N42W TO 21N48W TO A 16N56W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO TRINIDAD. THE 51W/52W WAVE IS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
24N42W-TO-TRINIDAD TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 16N BETWEEN 42W AND 65W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EAST OF 40W.

$$
MT




Should get an invest # soon.
Quoting indianrivguy:
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well. I'm trying to decide if I need to take any action today in preparation for what's coming our way next week.
i feel you! might run to the store to get some batteries and water
Quoting Cotillion:



Should get an invest # soon.


And... before it

" with a dissipating frontal low"
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review.......Thanks

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
541. Maybe a subtropical depression # afterwards.
Highest
winds 400 km/h (245 mph) (1-minute sustained)

Lowest pressure 870 hPa (mbar)

This is not right for Typhoon Tip
right?
Good morning everyone.
Good morning Tampa! Just wanted to confirm with you that there is a closed surface low with the Yucatan disturbance. If you look at the current surface observations, you can clearly see one exists under the deep convection offshore. In my opinion, this should be our next Invest or even Tropical Depression if it can maintain this convection.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


And... before it

" with a dissipating frontal low"


That means that the front is detaching from it. The Low isn't dissipating or else the NHC wouldn't have given it an Orange.
Quoting cycloone:
Highest
winds 400 km/h (245 mph) (1-minute sustained)

Lowest pressure 870 hPa (mbar)

This is not right for Typhoon Tip
right?
Quoting cycloone:
Highest
winds 400 km/h (245 mph) (1-minute sustained)

Lowest pressure 870 hPa (mbar)

This is not right for Typhoon Tip
right?


No. Tip had a top wind speed of 190mph, which is the joint record. Shared with Allen, Camille etc. (Though, that's 'officially', there has probably been a cyclone or two to beat that.)
Good morning Tim, good to see you.
548. cchsweatherman 8:57 AM EDT on September 28, 2008
Good morning Tampa! Just wanted to confirm with you that there is a closed surface low with the Yucatan disturbance. If you look at the current surface observations, you can clearly see one exists under the deep convection offshore. In my opinion, this should be our next Invest or even Tropical Depression if it can maintain this convection.


I agree there certainly appears to be a Surface low there......not sure it is closed yet but, its mighty if its not.....I would expect an Invest be declared rather sooner than later for sure.

552. indianrivguy 9:01 AM EDT on September 28, 2008
Good morning Tim, good to see you.


Hey my friend, it might just be our turn to get a little blow from something....i don't see it being anything very big tho.

Beginning to look like our Yucantan system will eventually be our next player. Even though the convection is pulsing I expect it will take a few days. You know NHC wont give it td status until its already a tropical storm.
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I can confirm a Surface circulation also by visible, last night when there was no convection there was a distinct swirl.
520. tkeith 7:18 AM EDT on September 28, 2008

The Bucs and Packers game is going to be a very emotional game for the Bucs with the death of Matt Bryants 3 month old boy...That sent shock waves thru Tampa. The Bucs will in no way loose this game playing with so much emotion.
I'm predicting that by tonight, we will probably have two invests, and maybe even a depression tommorow.
Jangmi made landfall and as usual winds were TS force over Taipei, maximum about 46mph gusting to 75 mph, of course much stronger in the area where the eye came ashore well south of capital, but as every typhoon that approaches Taiwan it started to weaken well before landfall affected by terrain.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
I'm predicting that by tonight, we will probably have two invests, and maybe even a depression tommorow.
We allready have 95L an invest that could be a subtropical low
Daai 517.
morning all i just seen the clips of James Reynolds in Taiwan. Now that is called getting your a** in the wind. These people in Taiwan get weather like this every year almost. the building codes must be stout there. thanks Daai, good stuff. God be with them.
Quoting storm7:
Jangmi made landfall and as usual winds were TS force over Taipei, maximum about 46mph gusting to 75 mph, of course much stronger in the area where the eye came ashore well south of capital, but as every typhoon that approaches Taiwan it started to weaken well before landfall affected by terrain.


you can see the storm come apart in the radar loop provided by Daai

Taiwan radar
Quoting bayouflower:
Subject: Press and SJ

By StormJunkie and presslord changing the paypal buttons and opening a new
PayPal account the earmark for the WUBA IKE RELIEF fund is no longer in place.
This means that portlight strategies can spend the monies as the wish and not
use it for WUBA IKE RELIEF if they choose not to.

If you click on the donate button in the patrap blog it is still
earmarked for the fund.


By clicking on the button in stormjunkies blog or
portlight.org you will see that the monies go directly to portlight strategies
and they are no longer earmarked for our efforts. I will no longer support
portlight strategies, inc. or stormjunkies blog. I intend to post a new entry
with all the relevant and factual information if this is not cleared up soon.

I do not want to be associated with someone that is trying to
control every aspect of this project and can not present a spread sheet of
accountability of how much money was received and how much money has been spent
and on what. This is supposed to be public record and has to be produced upon
request. I have requested accountability and a spread sheet on several
occasions.
I sent all checks to Paul in overnight shipping from here that I received and
all were endorsed to portlight.

$1485 total for 16 checks.

And I received only $1000 USD that went to deliver the Donated goods in the
Penske Truck to Anahuac and Double Creek Weds and Thurs this past week.

Other than that,,the Monies received via PayPal in the WUBA IKE Relief since the
buttons were created Sept 15th are in Portlight's absolute control.
The Bank that the Deposits are moved from PayPal into is Portlight Strategies
Inc,and not a Escrow account.

Unusual to say the least.

I could see all the incoming PayPal donations as I am the Primary Account Holder
on the WUBA Ike Relief Fund..portlight is the FIscal Guardian. I never had nor
wanted access to it.
I thought he would be a good steward of it.
But I havent seen a spreadsheet one. Period.

And One discrepancy is a $150.00 Dollars Purchase from the account for a
WarGames Video site.
That Matter is Under PayPal Internal security and Law enforcement Investigation
and the account is not able to be drawn on till it is resolved.

Funny how fast they moved that money and havent popped up since I posted the
25,000 figure yesterday.


But I do have ALL the TRANSACTIONS since it was opened.

Up until the time when today as they created a new Button and my info flow
stopped.

And they even hacked in and blocked my e-mail access to the account and hacked
the controls as wel Friday Evening .


But I had a back door and locked them out.

Only $712 Dollars is currently in the WUBA IKE Relief Fund as the other Balance
is in Pauls and portlights hands and the New Stormjunkie and portlight PayPal
Buttons go into that.

Not the Original WUBA IKE Account as in my Blog.

Im saddened at such Mutiny.



I think its time Stormjunkie and portlights loze there nice status amongst these blogs...

I suggest you email Jeff and tell him.
NHC does a good job waiting to name a storm. This season many storms have suddenly developed into TS's giving the NHC no time to give a Depression status. the future of what happens with this system is unknown. Models hint in 5 days of a hit on Southern Florida but it is 5 days out.
I am not going to get into a debate over the relief funds, but I would caution that no one make a judgment based on a single post without all the information.

Press's 501-3-c was always to be used for the control of the money - the fund has only been operating for 3 weeks - to expect accountings why they are still trying to get the trucks out is a little unrealistic.

If you have an issue with what has occurred, take it directly to the blog - not here on the board.
570. Vero1
Quoting Vortex95:
NHC does a good job waiting to name a storm. This season many storms have suddenly developed into TS's giving the NHC no time to give a Depression status. the future of what happens with this system is unknown. Models hint in 5 days of a hit on Southern Florida but it is 5 days out.


From the:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR 20N87W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS
ARE N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND NE ABOUT 15 KT OVER
THE REST OF THE GULF NW OF THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES N OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE N TO NE THROUGH TUE.
So what your saying they can use the money for what ever they want? Likely they used most of it for the right purposes and thought they could get away with a few purchases?
bayou 566.
I was gonna contribute to this fund, and something told me not to. this is sad. I hope there is a logically explanation for this. I am just one person amongst the many who were very blessed and fortunate that i didnt need any relief from Ike, but there are many who do to say the least. Bayou God Bless You.
bayouflower: Thank you for all the info. I won't say too much more here at this time---however, you DO need to make Dr Masters aware since he is giving a lot of coverage to what I thought was our joint effort to help those effected by Ike.

Thank you again for the heads up.

574. Vero1
48 hrs:


72hrs:
575. 7544
Quoting Vero1:


From the:

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
240 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING NEAR 20N87W. A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. WINDS
ARE N TO NE 20 TO 25 KT OVER THE SW GULF AND NE ABOUT 15 KT OVER
THE REST OF THE GULF NW OF THE TROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER MOST OF THE GULF AS THE LOW MOVES N OVER THE S
CENTRAL GULF WATERS. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE N TO NE THROUGH TUE.


back to weather is this suppose the system for so fla that everyone is talking about tia
No - what I said was that it is an established charitable foundation that has a good track record.

What I find sad is that people are willing to pass judgment without all of the facts. How would you like to be the at the end of a post stating absolutes, without you being there to post an answer.

Also - how do you know that if a game was purchased it wasn't for a child who lost everything or for the station house for the guys in their off time?
Good morning all!

I was just checking all the maps and I ntcied not only the on hit on FL on Wednes day but also one the following Tuesday andthat one looks worse.

I'm new to reading all the maps so please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks!
Something weird is going on. Bayouflower is Teresa, Patrap's wife.
Vero.. that doesn't look to bad... what does the central pressure say on the 48hr.. 1003? that's not so scary.. I like not so scary.
Zoo I understand your skepticism and I am a little as well, but I do see it suspect to buy a $150 worth of video games. Video games are fun but it should not be any part of a relief effort imo. However he could be trying to undermine them for no reason as well so i'll wait before I go to conclusions of he gives some hard evidence.
Patrap's blog no longer exists.

Banned
This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin.
PLEASE IGNORE THAT POST FROM BAYOUFLOWER. IT IS LIES. THAT IS PATTRAP AND SINCE HE IS BANNED HE IS USING HIS WIFE'S HANDLE TO SPREAD LIES. THAT IS ALL I AM GOING TO SAY.
Starting to see Kyle on Canadian radar..

RE: 569. zoomiami
I agree. This effort was put together quite quickly. The fact that no spread sheet has been delivered in itself is not indicative of problems.
Those who are on site, would have to get all their receipts to Portlight for a full accounting.

RE: bayouflower
Bayouflower is quite correct to to question the fund and state his concerns, however, it is a bit early for a condemnation of portlight.

In anycase, there are many ways to donate to the cause, and there is no reason for those of us spared this year not to take a part in the relief effort.





Well let's look at some facts here, Pat (bayouflower) is the banned one, and now circumventing the ban to spread his version of events, doesn't that make you wonder?

Woohoooooo Code!

bayouflower is pat's wife....I suggest you take notice of the fact that pat's blog has been banned by WU admin....they are aware of the situation and helping us take action to correct it....in short, because this fund was set up hurriedly by Pat, Portlight never had full control of the PayPal account...and yesterday he got hinky with it...he froze the PayPal account , thus making it impossible for us to monitor it and access the funds.and he would not cooperate with facilitasting a resolution....our responsibility to be good stewards was seriously hindered...and pat had unfettered access to the funds...the total amount in question, for which pat must answer is less than $800..so we had to take steps to ensure the accountability of the funds received....as well as the tax deductibility...what we did was with the full knowledge and cooperation of all the responsible parties....ESPECIALLY WU Admin....
Sounds like sour grapes to me.
Can someone tell me why no on answers my posts?
the $150 transfer attempt was caught by me, reported to PayPal, investigated, determined to be a hack attmpt, and returned to the account....
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Can someone tell me why no on answers my posts?

I am new as well, but it might help if you put a link to the maps that you are looking at.
Sounds like you are well on your way to learning!
we are 2 weeks into this....I have posted and copied Jeff Masters....on our financials as I know them....

as to no 3rd party oversight: we are governed by a board, as well as Federal and state authorities.....Pat is not....he is doing this because I would not indiscriminately send him $3000 without an accounting for it.....
Well maybe now I will finally donate. To be honest with you, and I have been here at the WU for over 4 years, I wouldnt donate to this relief cause because Pat was involved. I trusted all the others involved but not him. Sorry, thats the truth.
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Good morning all!

I was just checking all the maps and I ntcied not only the on hit on FL on Wednes day but also one the following Tuesday andthat one looks worse.

I'm new to reading all the maps so please correct me if I am wrong.

Thanks!


could you give me a link to the graphics you were viewing? thanks!
Oh and once this finally gets sorted out, let us know and maybe then I will finally donate. Thanks.
Is it too early for popcorn?
602. Enola
deleted
603. 7544
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
Thank You Bob.
The many long timers know.
605. IKE
Wow......what a blog this morning!
606. code1
*
Wow!!! This is getting good! Reading the blog this am is like watching a cat fight!!!
Quoting indianrivguy:
Vero.. that doesn't look to bad... what does the central pressure say on the 48hr.. 1003? that's not so scary.. I like not so scary.


not tryin to be the reaper, but look at the CMC model as well as some others which are hinting this system will be a little stronger than expected.
Quoting 7544:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


Well this had to be sorted out.
Quoting IKE:
Wow......what a blog this morning!


Yea. I'm just sitting back and reading.
LOL! waters are starting to get rough!!
I have no evidence that all involved in WUrelief are not honorable people. Lets all sit back and let folks with access to the whole story sort things out befor the rest of us pile on with a bunch of speculation and rumor.
as for where the $1000 we sent to pat went: We don't know...he has never produced recepts, as I asked....

and as for any investigation....I welcome it.....what we did yesterday was to ensure that the generous donations of many would be used properly.....
Quoting 7544:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


Anything included in the Doc's blog can be blogged on and the relief effort is there.
Back to the tropics...95L

here is one:

http://meteocentre.com/animate.php?lang=en&satdir=/models/gemglb_amer_00/&satname=gemglbPR00&satext =gif&num=41&speed=5&src=1&title=GEM%20GLB%2000Z%20ANIM

i have to go and finsd the the other one that was showing them both.
WOW what a blog this AM
Where is 95L?
Press, Pat, Storm, Bayou, et. al.
Weather Blog knock it off call. Can you sort this out on WU mail - or maybe a quiet phone call. Big picture - good work is being done. Details - apparently a disagreement about a $150 charge (game site?), missing $485 in reciepts (details always a problem but non-profit rules are very strict), and then posting instead of phoning one another.
Should not be a debate - anything to a 501C is gonna get audited so I'm pretty confident there. Once the bucks are passed out the receipts are the only trail, and I'm willing to wait until this is done before passing judgement.
Let's get back to moving supplies (easy for me to say as I'm not the one driving a truck). Hat's off to all of you.
Yogi
623. IKE
Quoting presslord:
as for where the $1000 we sent to pat went: We don't know...he has never produced recepts, as I asked....

and as for any investigation....I welcome it.....what we did yesterday was to ensure that the generous donations of many would be used properly.....


Well...I'm surprised. I know nothing about any of it but wouldn't have thought Patrap would do anything dishonorable. I haven't donated because I don't have the funds to.
ok here is the other one.

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/loop/nam_pres_loop.html
stop fighting guys, only days of peace left in the tropics, come on. SW FL might get a hit in 5 days and you guys are bickering, even if important, please try to settle your differences, quicky, as seeing thibgs could get nasty soon
what is going on here?

what did pat do?
In short....we have raised about $26000...and spent about $12000-13000....I don't have the checkbook with me but the vast majority went to fuel and purchasing supplies, as well as truck rentals....some went to the crews for food and lodgeing on the road.....and to get the crews home...ca't do a full accounting til we're done...but have frequently updated specifics of income and outgo....we have other loads preparing to be seent and delivered in a number of different ways....
95L is in north central Atlantic
Quoting sngalla:
Where is 95L?


West of the Azores.

Those of us that have been here since the start of the blogs stand behind what we are saying. Many here don't know the things we do.
Quoting sngalla:
Patrap's blog no longer exists.

Banned
This blog has been banned by WunderBlogAdmin.


why is he banned?

what did he do?
Quoting Raysfan70:
.......... Many here don't know the things we don't.


Say what??
95L look march better then 94L was
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
ok here is the other one.

http://weather.unisys.com/nam/loop/nam_pres_loop.html

thanks a bunch!!
637. 7544
thanks cchsweatherman but how does it track to so fla from west to east if so where does it cross over from naples or south thanks again
638. IKE
633....maybe giving to the Red Cross was the way to go.

A lot of BS on here this morning...I'm glad I have a life away from these blogs. It's just too involved too often.

CMC predicts such a strong system coming off Guatemala because it fully merges the Yucatan low, the disturbance near Colombia, and that wave in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This appears to produce a TS hitting Cuba, and if you extend the model, it looks like a TS landfall on south Florida, and perhaps a hurricane affecting the New York region. The mm5fsu-merge model also predicts merging, and the NOGAPS and UKMET models predict partial merging. A system, combined with the Yucatan low and the system near Florida, could hit south Florida before the second wave arrives. As for Invest 95, the Azores low, it's predicted to skirt Newfoundland and give them some heavy rain. Jangmi moved south as soon as it hit Taiwan, by the way.
Wow we have some drama in here today. Now were talking criminal investigations instead of just banning. Exciting.
The moral of the story is don't donate to some random charity. Donate to places you know like the Red Cross, your church etc....
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
Can someone tell me why no on answers my posts?


I have. And that was before I saw your avatar... GO STEELERS! :)

It's a sunday morning w/o a major threat so not as many folks around.

Most times, people aren't ignoring, just don't have a quick answer.

Many times people just haven't had a chance to look.

I find it more cconstructive to repost the question/comment.

If taht fails, WUmail someone. I find most to be very approachable.
633. bayouflower
Just blew any credibility
645. IKE
Quoting JupiterFL:
Wow we have some drama in here today. Now were talking criminal investigations instead of just banning. Exciting.
The moral of the story is don't donate to some random charity. Donate to places you know like the Red Cross, your church etc....


You're exactly right. I'm not flaming anyone, but if I was to donate it would be to the Red Cross.
CrisW sorry I corrected it.
647. 7544
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
CMC predicts such a strong system coming off Guatemala because it fully merges the Yucatan low, the disturbance near Colombia, and that wave in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This appears to produce a TS hitting Cuba, and if you extend the model, it looks like a TS landfall on south Florida, and perhaps a hurricane affecting the New York region. The mm5fsu-merge model also predicts merging, and the NOGAPS and UKMET models predict partial merging. A system, combined with the Yucatan low and the system near Florida, could hit south Florida before the second wave arrives. As for Invest 95, the Azores low, it's predicted to skirt Newfoundland and give them some heavy rain. Jangmi moved south as soon as it hit Taiwan, by the way.


so so fla can get a one two punch ? the second one goes north from cuba to so fla ? too
649. code1
*
650. IKE
Problem is there's too much being thrown out here that's no one's business.

Back to the tropics.
651. code1
*
could we get back too the weather Please



or are you all looking forword to a 24hr or longer ban from the Admin ????
Drak - if you are still lurking - can you explain how one system can go southwest from the Atlantic, and another ne from the Yucatan?

If it were to actually happen (who knows), would this be similar to the Hurricane Grace, noreaster in the north atlantic?

Its an interesting scenario that I don't quite understand.

TIA
Sorry Pat, when you start personal attacks on members and their family--jeez even their children pretty much seals the deal for me.---NOT the person I thought you were.

Press and SJ carry on---you are doing a wonderful job and we do have faith in you. That goes for Doc Masters too or he wouldn't have taken the action of banning Pats blog

my last word on this: anyone with any questions can call me anytime @(843)817-2651
Wow, and all this with my first cup of coffee.
Quoting JupiterFL:
The moral of the story is don't donate to some random charity. Donate to places you know like the Red Cross, your church etc....


Good sound advice. And if you don't have $$ to donate you can always volunteer with the Red Cross to help in your community. :-)
660. 7544
whats moving sw the sts ?
Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. I'm just sitting back and reading.


Diddo,
Yesterday was a very slow blog day. Today, I'm not so sure.
Quoting YogiNav:
Press, Pat, Storm, Bayou, et. al.
Weather Blog knock it off call. Can you sort this out on WU mail - or maybe a quiet phone call. Big picture - good work is being done. Details - apparently a disagreement about a $150 charge (game site?), missing $485 in reciepts (details always a problem but non-profit rules are very strict), and then posting instead of phoning one another.
Should not be a debate - anything to a 501C is gonna get audited so I'm pretty confident there. Once the bucks are passed out the receipts are the only trail, and I'm willing to wait until this is done before passing judgement.
Let's get back to moving supplies (easy for me to say as I'm not the one driving a truck). Hat's off to all of you.
Yogi
A voice of reason!
663. IKE
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Diddo,
Yesterday was a very slow blog day. Today, I'm not so sure.


From foot fetishes to questions of donated money...what a blog!
Quoting 7544:
whats moving sw the sts ?


Yeah, or westward.

I'll have a guess at the high above it (going off the ATSA) is blocking the northward progression, while the NE progression of the Yucatan low is caused by a trough or front pushing through, or is sitting there. I think I saw a earlier diagram of 95L's path basically doubling on itself going NE, which maybe because of an interaction with a front... possibly the same one that's taking Kyle?

My guess. :P
Why someone would donate to a charity that was obviously not organized properly baffles me. Apparently the folks that set whatev er legal parameters there were not educated and honestly had no business doing the same. Had the charity and its moneys been properly controlled this could have all been avoided but I guess the powers that be were not smart enough to do so.
666. 7544
Quoting Cotillion:


Yeah, or westward.

I'll have a guess at the high above it (going off the ATSA) is blocking the northward progression, while the NE progression of the Yucatan low is caused by a trough or front pushing through, or is sitting there. I think I saw a earlier diagram of 95L's path basically doubling on itself going NE, which maybe because of an interaction with a front... possibly the same one that's taking Kyle?

My guess. :P


yeah but the models did show this early this week then for it going to the sw then it clips off t the ne again in a short while
Quoting iluvjess:
Why someone would donate to a charity that was obviously not organized properly baffles me. Apparently the folks that set whatev er legal parameters there were not educated and honestly had no business doing the same. Had the charity and its moneys been properly controlled this could have all been avoided but I guess the powers that be were not smart enough to do so.


Dr Master's endorsed this charity. This person is just trying to make problems. Our money has been going to the people who needed it...the Ike survivors.
RE: BOC / West Carib. / Buoy Readings

When that Carolina un-named storm was along the coast, I posted buoy info showing the changes in the buoy readings.
I am not sure if that information was at all helpful - or a waste of blog space.
If it was helpful, I will do the same for the BOC/West Carib. - Otherwise I will save the blog space (We may need it LOL!)
669. 7544
good one ike and then when the blog gets to 25 pages it stalls and we get a hole here so lets try to keep talking weather and take that other stuff elswhere it dosent look good in the good dr. blog people will get the wrong idea here ty
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: BOC / West Carib. / Buoy Readings

When that Carolina un-named storm was along the coast, I posted buoy info showing the changes in the buoy readings.
I am not sure if that information was at all helpful - or a waste of blog space.
If it was helpful, I will do the same for the BOC/West Carib. - Otherwise I will save the blog space (We may need it LOL!)


I'd like to see it. Thanks
I know nothing of the rights and wrongs of the situation. I do, however, know something about the laws of libel and would just caution some of you that you are very close to overstepping the mark!
Quoting KEHCharleston:
RE: BOC / West Carib. / Buoy Readings

When that Carolina un-named storm was along the coast, I posted buoy info showing the changes in the buoy readings.
I am not sure if that information was at all helpful - or a waste of blog space.
If it was helpful, I will do the same for the BOC/West Carib. - Otherwise I will save the blog space (We may need it LOL!)


Can only post my vote - I like the buoy readings - use them around florida when something is up.

I give to my church, put together packages of supplies that people really need in the areas hardest hit here. They actually know what is really needed and go from there...My kids school also puts together packages. We drop off supplies at the school from a list provided to us. These supplies go directly to schools in the areas that need them...Also, the Red Cross really helped us after Katrina/Rita
Anyone want to call me? I'll tell you the truth.

WU-mail me and I'll give you my ph#
Also see that the track for Kyle has moved more to the west - seems that the biggest affect for the NE will be the rain.

Have watched the wind warnings for most of Maine, not much in the way of winds.

Anyone on here from Nova Scotia?
OK well if someone can look at the links I posteed and maybe email me if I am reading them correctly I would I appreciate it.

Have to go now... My twins 6th birthday today. We have family that has flown in for it and they will be here the whole week which is why I have been watching the one for this week but then seen the other one coming and it looked worse.

thanks!
You people keep mentioning the Red Cross, but don't forget the Salvation Army. I feel they are doing an excellent job down in Galveston.
Jangmi is doing interesting things judging by the satellite image, seems to be breaking up in two parts after the landfall.
Endorsements do not guaranty ti legality of the situation. Had an attorney set up the entity the funds would have never been under the control of one person. I would be wary of contribitutng any more money to any fund raiser untill proper documentation has been provided supporting the ethical substinence of the same.
Quoting zoomiami:
Also see that the track for Kyle has moved more to the west - seems that the biggest affect for the NE will be the rain.

Have watched the wind warnings for most of Maine, not much in the way of winds.

Anyone on here from Nova Scotia?


I live in Halifax.. not much wind here yet..a freshening S flow though.. maybe 20km but uncannily sustained..
Quoting presslord:
In short....we have raised about $26000...and spent about $12000-13000....I don't have the checkbook with me but the vast majority went to fuel and purchasing supplies, as well as truck rentals....some went to the crews for food and lodgeing on the road.....and to get the crews home...ca't do a full accounting til we're done...but have frequently updated specifics of income and outgo....we have other loads preparing to be seent and delivered in a number of different ways....

And why did you kick someone out?
683. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
Endorsements do not guaranty ti legality of the situation. Had an attorney set up the entity the funds would have never been under the control of one person. I would be wary of contribitutng any more money to any fund raiser untill proper documentation has been provided supporting the ethical substinence of the same.


Wouldn't it have been a lot less costly to just donate to an organization you trust rather than the expenses associated with moving supplies hundreds, thousands of miles?
BAYOOFLOWER

Paul(presslord) is not trying to call you!! he's been on the ph w/my husband for over twenty minutes!!

wu-mail me- ANYONE- I'll tell you
670. bystander
675. zoomiami

Alrighty! So far the buoys are not showing anything interesting (in fact the pressure tendency has been rising)
As soon as they start showing something I will post the 5 day readings.
687. 7544
is this going to go on all day enough already take it to another blog sechhhhh
688. bcn
According to this image Caribean is dry while nordatlantic is wet. And according this map the only 3 lows are Kyle, Azores and Spain. Is it a normal september situation?
Quoting Vortex95:
Zoo I understand your skepticism and I am a little as well, but I do see it suspect to buy a $150 worth of video games. Video games are fun but it should not be any part of a relief effort imo. However he could be trying to undermine them for no reason as well so i'll wait before I go to conclusions of he gives some hard evidence.


$150 for a video game could be fraud by a hacker who exploited the account to make an online purchase. This type of thing is common with PayPal and credit card accounts. Looks like several people had access to the account. Just one of those folks with an exploited PC (virus) or email account is all it takes to get the account info and password passed out to crooks on the internet.
For those that have come to this blog seeking to discuss the active tropics and instead have found yourself in a toxic stew of despicable acts, worthless banter, and immature bickering, you can come over to the CCHS Weatherblog and have your wish fulfilled. I have posted my Graphical Tropical Update there.
Thanks Tbone - what kind of weather are they calling for in your area?

Local mets usually have a more detailed view of the situation.

Keep us posted, let us know what's going on your way.
I knew somthing was up with him when he was posting 30 different radars in 2 mins. lol...

back to tropics.
anyone posting on portlight Bruhaha other than DR Masters will be flagged and ignored by this poster. I suggest others adopt same policy. Only way to stop this thing getting out of hand.

Respect to all involved and I trust you to work it out ASAP

Shen
Quoting 7544:
is this going to go on all day enough already take it to another blog sechhhhh
wats going on?
sorry
tired
just woke up...
695. code1
I've deleted my comments out of respect for WU, Dr. M, and the relief effort here. Anyone who comes on later, reads back, and wants them. Contact me via WU mail. I will send them to you.
hey everyone, Jim Cantore is in Maine
Very true. One should always be cautious contributing money to a charity that pops up immediately following a disaster. It takes time to set up a charity with all of the proper legal ramifications and guidelines. Pop up charities are notorious for problems like this. Even if the the intention is good, usually the people involved are not educated as to the proper steps to take to ensure the integrity of the entity and its operations.
Well morning all, what a lovely way to be awoken from my first good nights sleep in two and a half weeks.

For those that do not know, bayouflower is patrap.

Let me first address some of the inaccuracies in that post. First of all monies were ALWAYS supposed to be under the control of Portlight Strategies which is a non profit that has been in existence for over 10 years. Portlight Strategies has a board of directors as well as a requirement to report all fiscal information to the government with complete transparency. As with every other year; they will do the same this year. Paul has also continued to provide financial updates to the bloggers as well as Dr Masters.

Yes, pat did set the original PayPal account up in HIS name and Paul (presslord) followed up by submitting all 501c3 documentation to PayPal and attaching the Portlight bank account to it. The only way to pay for supplies and bills is to have this money in the checking account, and it is also the only way to verify it as valid tax deductible money.

As for pat not having or wanting access to the money, the first part is true, the second not so much. Pat did not nor has ever had the ability to withdraw money from the PayPal account. In fact he did WU mail me stating he needed access to the PayPal funds. Pat never was a non-profit and this all started with him asking people to send him personal checks; not only questionable in character, but quite frankly illegal.

The mistakes that were made with the PayPal account were numerous, and the biggest being that the name Patrick Pearson should have never been the primary name on the account. That was Paul and myself's fault which was made in the heat of the moment trying to get things rolling quickly. We spent the past three days trying to get Pat on a three way call with PayPal in order to rectify the name on the account. Not only was he unwilling to do this, but he flat out refused to respond to emails or phone calls. Not only that but he cursed and threatened legal action against both Paul and myself. Neither of which concerned us in the least as we ARE doing the right thing here and those in Texas will continue to need help for sometime to come. It did speak to Pat's unwillingness to communicate with us and his constant choice to make rash decisions.

Now to address the WorldofWarcraft issue, and the rest of his rant. Paul saw this very shortly after it happened and notified PayPal to start an investigation of how this money got withdrawn from the account. If I understand correctly, the transaction was stopped while PayPal investigates. This did not in anyway freeze the account. It simply froze that transaction while PayPal investigates. Pat never bothered to pick up the phone or email Paul or myself questioning this transaction, if he had he would have understood that very shortly after it happened we had the PayPal security department on it.

The account was actually frozen yesterday when Pat called PayPal and had them change the password and log in information. This was not his place to do this and honestly he should have been more then willing to have the three way conversation with Paul, PayPal, and himself in order to get the name on the account changed. Paul is the Chief Officer for Portlight Strategies and therefore it should have been his name on the account all along. Again, Pat refused phone calls and would not respond to emails all day yesterday as we did everything we could to get him to continue to work with us and not against us. Again, he either refused to respond or threatened us with legal action; which quite frankly would ultimately lead to more trouble for him then it ever would for Portlight, Paul, or myself.

As for the $25,000; just read my blog which was posted yesterday, and was really the first time in a couple of weeks I have had to update it. Rest assured that Portlight is working as hard as possible to make every dime go as far as possible. This is one reason that we are not immediately sending another truck to drive halfway across the country. We can rent a truck in Texas and deliver supplies, or we can have supplies delivered where they need to go. This is a much more efficient method then driving 500 to 1500 miles across country.

One of the thing that I find most bizarre about all of this is that numerous times over the past week Paul has told Pat to get an itemized list of supplies and travel expenses together and that he would overnight a check to him. Pat never did this; I have a really hard time understanding this. It was a very simple thing to do and if his concern was really getting relief in to the area, then why did he not follow through on it. Really makes me scratch my head.

As for the new PayPal account which you can find buttons for in my blog, my website, and the Portlight website; yesterday we realized that Pat was never going to cooperate and the only option left was to create a new account. It has absolutely nothing to do with what the money is earmarked for or how it will be spent. It was simply the only option we had to have Paul Timmons name on the account and as Chief Officer, it IS his name that should be on the account.

For those of you that know pat on a more personal level, you saw this coming a mile away. For those that do not, please understand that it is very hard to truly know a person from a blog. I am not going to go in to all of the details; just saying sometimes things are not what they seem.

There is a reason that Dr Masters and the Wunderground has been supportive of this relief effort, and that should speak loudly enough to all of you that these accusations and rants by Pat are unfounded.

I truly apologize to Dr Masters, The Wunderground, and all of the bloggers that we have had to waste anytime at all on this issues. Every second we spend on this is a second away from Portlight continuing the relief effort. Which we intend to continue for as long as possible. Many of the larger organizations will leave the area and there will still be many that need help. Hopefully Portlight can still be their meeting specific need of the folks in Texas.

Portlight will continue to provide relief and documentation of that relief work in Texas. Paul and myself will be in touch with Bridge City, Winnie, and Anahauc (pronounced Anawack; and don't mess that up if you are in Tx!) to get specific needs and arrange more supply deliveries. Again, we are going to make every dollar go as far as possible, both for the sake of our donors and the folks of Texas who need it. We also continue to work the local community in Charleston as well as several national entities in order to raise funds; the WU has been a huge part of this effort, and many thanks to all of you from the folks of Texas. Rest assured that your money is getting used effectively and efficiently to provide relief to the outlying areas that are not getting as much mainstream support as the Houston/Galveston area.

Now, for those of you that know me or have spoken with me before; if you have my phone number you are welcome to call me. If you do not have it you can WU mail me and if I recognize your handle I will send it to you. You may also call Paul as he has posted several responses in Dr M's blog. Again, for those that have been around the WU for sometime; I think you all know I have been working my arse (as nash would say) off to get the help where it is needed. I can not remember a two week period of the tropical season where I have spent so little time on the blogs. As I said, I will be glad to take phone calls on any questions y'all may have, but beyond that this is a waste of time and there is still a lot of work to be done and a lot of people in Texas who have absolutely nothing so I will not be addressing this again. There are plenty out there that know the truth and will stand up and tell it.

Thank you all for your support and I count that as we continue to show the results of our efforts we will be able to continue to count on your support.

John
Rain and light winds. Lucky so far off the coast of Maine.
700. IKE
Folks got involved in something they should have never gotten involved in. Now it's spread all over this blog.

Donate to the Red Cross...Salvation Army, etc. and let it be.
Assuming Payton Place is almost over...
Blog Update.. on WEATHER

All Systems ... Atlantic
Maine - NS ... Hurricane Kyle ... complete with Models
Maine - NS ... Hurricane Kyle ... with Cloud Cover
Maine - NS ... Hurricane Kyle ... complete with Hurricane Hunter Plots (when ontask)
Maine - NS ... Hurricane Kyle ... predicted Landfall
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean Blob
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC & ... BOC
CMC & ... Caribbean
CMC & ... Caribbean Blob into Cuba
CMC & ... Caribbean Blob into Tampa
CMC 00Z..
Ipswich Weather Center statement at 16:08 BST on Sunday 28th September 2008:


The Ipswich Weather Center is now taking a impartial view on this subject. However both turns of events from both patrap and john and co sound very fishy. We feel that we should suggest at this time to get Doctor Jeff to find someone to do an external investigation while still getting john and co to continue there "Brilliant" work.


If you have any questions please see my blog.
When should we expect the low forming off the Yucatan Peninsula to become an invest?
There looks to be a decent circulation just off the East Coast of the Yucatan this morning.
Thanks for clearing everything up StormJunkie.
Well i'll let the blog simmer down until this gets sorted out plz try to do your messaging off the blog I beleive we got the story now so please keep this off the blog.
iluvjess....this nonprofit has been around since 1997....
Patrap(bayouflower), can you please take your garbage out of this blog. This is a weather blog not somewhere for you exhaust your temper tantrum.
Throughout the past three hours, I have been attempting to inform others who desire to learn about the tropics and wish to get the latest information regarding them. But, with the latest developments between Patrap, Presslord, and StormJunkie, it has been very difficult and quite frustrating to place it generously. This matter should be handled through the legal process and should not be forced into people's faces. All this was not necessary to place here and should be handled in private as you all are becoming quite detrimental to those who wish to come on here regarding the tropics. If this does not come to a conclusion on the blogs soon, you will find that I will be conspicuously absent from the blogs for quite some time.
I do not doubt the validity of the organization. However, the proper steps were not taken to ensure the integrity of the contributions. This is not uncommon when the proper attention is not taken. I am sure that the charity means well and has had success in the past. Hopefully a lesson has been learned.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
For those that have come to this blog seeking to discuss the active tropics and instead have found yourself in a toxic stew of despicable acts, worthless banter, and immature bickering, you can come over to the CCHS Weatherblog and have your wish fulfilled. I have posted my Graphical Tropical Update there.

Thank you. Am on my way!
Good morning everyone. The storm over the Yucatan looks like it could develope into something shortly.
That Azore low is truly amazing havent seen anything larger than the U.S. out in the Atlantic before. Was the storm of the century that large. Remember the winter storm that ran the whole US from coast to coast, bringing near hurricane force winds to about everyone. P.S. everyone please calm down I know a lot of emotions are involved but just remember what goes around comes around, and it will all come out in the wash.
Quoting zoomiami:
Thanks Tbone - what kind of weather are they calling for in your area?

Local mets usually have a more detailed view of the situation.

Keep us posted, let us know what's going on your way.


You bet. CHC has Halifax just out of the Tropical Storm watch area, but under a wind-warning. Expecting sustained 70km with gusts 90km later this evening. On the southern tip of NS, in Yarmouth for example, CHC maintains a TS warning and a Hurricane watch, expecting sustained 90km, gusts 130km.

It seems clear that Kyle is beginning ET, and it has been suggested by CHC that the SE arm of the storm is starting to look frontal. Kyle will probably marginally weaken (5-10kts over the next 12-24hrs). Because of ET I expect I will see little rain here on the southeast side of the track, but perhaps stronger winds as the field displaces from the center.

I'll keep you posted.
Quoting Drakoen:
Patrap(bayouflower), can you please take your garbage out of this blog. This is a weather blog not somewhere for you exhaust your temper tantrum.


Agree, and even before this, I stayed away from him as far as possible (WU provides features to do this), for past reasons I am not going to put here.
Quoting Drakoen:
Patrap(bayouflower), can you please take your garbage out of this blog. This is a weather blog not somewhere for you exhaust your temper tantrum.


Drak.... put up with it.... this is something to do with the blog...

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Drak.... put up with it.... this is something to do with the blog...

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


consider it done
719. IKE
Quoting lawntonlookers:
Good morning everyone. The storm over the Yucatan looks like it could develope into something shortly.


And the storm in here is under RI. A cat 3...a major.
wow the spin in the middle atlantic is huge, will it get stronger and where do we think it will go?

Link
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.


So it follows 1 rule yet breaks another....

ROFL
This situation does directly affect many members of this forum/blog.

The Hurricane Ike relief effort continues
Thanks to everyone who has contributed to the portlight.org charity! We raised enough money to send another truck with relief supplies to Winnie and Bridge City, Texas, where traditional relief efforts have fallen short. Wunderground member Presslord (AKA Paul Timmons, Jr.), who is coordinating this effort along with Patrap and StormJunkie, has announced that if we raise an additional $10,000 mark, he will pose in a dress for our wunderphoto gallery. We're up to $4800 so far. The effort has raised a grand total of $25,000 so far. Great work, everyone!
Quoting IKE:


And the storm in here is under RI. A cat 3...a major.


Ike,,,, what?
Quoting sammywammybamy:
WTF What the heck ... Hold Up Why is Patrap Banned...

Oh Boy another OJ Simson Trail

Awww Dang it


Read... all posts in this blog.... and Johns...
727. IKE
Quoting iluvjess:
I do not doubt the validity of the organization. However, the proper steps were not taken to ensure the integrity of the contributions. This is not uncommon when the proper attention is not taken. I am sure that the charity means well and has had success in the past. Hopefully a lesson has been learned.


Apparently not and it's being splattered all over this blog. Why????????????????????

Like I said....give to reputable organizations and move on. Not saying those involved aren't reputable, but their cred has taken a hit on here....I don't know whose right or wrong but the parties need to avoid each other, if possible...
723. Sfloridacat5 3:28 PM GMT on September 28, 2008 Hide this comment.
This situation does directly affect many members of this forum/blog.


Indirectly yes.. pertinent to the Blog.. NO
730. IKE
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Ike,,,, what?


Folks accusing other folks of tampering with money. Folks slandering other folks...
Patrap/bayouflower:

do you honestly think Doctor Master's would have had you banned, if he did not have complete and total documentation of YOU hijacking the account?

This is Doctor Master's site, his self-respect.

Does anyone really think Doctor Master's would be swayed by any illegal activity? Or would he serve us the truth of the matter?

You've been banned, Patrap.

There's your truth, folks.
TAIPEI (AP): Typhoon Jangmi lashed Taiwan with torrential rains and powerful winds on Sunday, causing widespread flooding, shutting down offices and forcing the cancellation of international flights.

Jangmi _ the fourth and most powerful typhoon to hit the island this year _ made landfall in Ilan county in northeastern Taiwan at mid afternoon Sunday, the Central Weather Bureau said.

Power was cut to 86,000 households as the area was hit by gusts of up to 140 miles (227 kilometers) per hour, the highest level the bureau's equipment can measure, it said.

ETTV Cable News reported the strong winds overturned a bus on a highway in Ilan, injuring three passengers.

The usually bustling capital of Taipei was eerily quiet with only a few cars on streets buffeted by the stormy weather. Trees were uprooted and building scaffolding blown off.

The Disaster Relief Center said dozens of villagers were evacuated from the scenic mountain resort of Lushan in central Taiwan, where all 20 hotels were ordered closed. The area was badly damaged when Typhoon Sinlaku hit two weeks ago, with massive mudslides destroying at least three hotels.

Hundreds of fishing boats sheltered at ports, and domestic flights and rail services were canceled, television stations reported.

Taiwan's China Airlines and EVA Airways said several flights to Asia were canceled or rescheduled for Monday. China's Southern and Hainan Airlines canceled their flights to the island from Beijing and Shanghai.

The Disaster Relief Center said authorities were pumping flood waters from many low-lying areas and were closely monitoring water levels in rivers, particularly at 19 major bridges that would be closed if necessary.

The Central Weather Bureau said Jangmi would move northwest toward southern China early Monday but its outer bands would continue to dump heavy rains in Taiwan. Mountainous areas could record up to 40 inches (1,000 millimeters) of rain in the two-day period, the bureau said.

Typhoons frequently hit Taiwan between July and October, causing flash floods and deadly landslides. Typhoon Sinlaku killed 12 people and left 10 others missing
I just found the perfect way to make the Blog calm and easy to read :)

Someone tell me when its all over so I can change my ignore list
Any comments on the low trying to form off the East Coast of the Yucatan?

736. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
Patrap/bayouflower:

do you honestly think Doctor Master's would have had you banned, if he did not have complete and total documentation of YOU hijacking the account?

This is Doctor Master's site, his self-respect.

Does anyone really think Doctor Master's would be swayed by any illegal activity? Or would he serve us the truth of the matter?

You've been banned, Patrap.

There's your truth, folks.


TMI.....this is not going to end nicely and looks terrible.
On another note, look at the pressure here this morning:

Grantley Adams, BR (Airport)
Updated: 33 min 55 sec ago
Mostly Cloudy
82 °F / 28 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 79 °F / 26 °C
Wind: 5 mph / 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the ENE
Pressure: 0.38 in / 13 hPa (Steady)
Heat Index: 92 °F / 34 °C
Visibility: 6.2 miles / 10.0 kilometers
UV: 9 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1000 ft / 304 m
Scattered Clouds 3200 ft / 975 m
Mostly Cloudy 26000 ft / 7924 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 184 ft / 56 m
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Any comments on the low trying to form off the East Coast of the Yucatan?



That should the topic of discussion. South Florida didn't prepare for Wilma and don't think they want a repeat.
739. IKE
Looks like something is trying to get going north of the Yucatan.
Quoting IKE:


Folks accusing other folks of tampering with money. Folks slandering other folks...


It's libel, not slander, as I suggested in an earlier post.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Any comments on the low trying to form off the East Coast of the Yucatan?


Link
CMC & ... Caribbean

CMC & ... Caribbean Blob into Cuba

CMC & ... Caribbean Blob into Tampa
This is my final warning.....

Anyone who breaks the rules will not only be flagged... will be banned from my blog to.
Drop it guys.. the list is getting to long to manage
Quoting IKE:
Looks like something is trying to get going north of the Yucatan.


Yea...it looks like that is where the broad area of low pressure is...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Drop it guys.. the list is getting to long to manage



Lol.... I hope you ain't ignored me...
FKPQ31 RJTD 281200
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20080928/1200Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: NIL
NR: 1
PSN: N1455 E11205
MOV: WNW 03KT
C: 998HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 28/1800Z N1505 E11155
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 29/0000Z N1530 E11155
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 29/0600Z N1555 E11155
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 29/1200Z N1620 E11155
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20080928/1800Z =
Quoting stormdude77:


Yea...it looks like that is where the broad area of low pressure is...


Is this the area that some are saying is headed towards FL?
750. Enola
Hey, I've got a weather question!

As a non-met, both Kyle and 95L seem to be very far north for this time of year. Why are they there?
possible new cyclone near Hainan Island and Vietnam.

753. IKE
NCEP shows a 1008 mb low over the Yucatan.
755. bcn
The third atlantic low (Kyle, 95L and Spain):




Aka: Spain still learning to construct hurricanes (link)
How sad this is. I came on to read about the tropics and this is what I find. Truely SAD!!!!
757. IKE
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
people on iggy list:

* Ike
* Bay


Thanks.
Quoting bcn:
The third atlantic low (Kyle, 95L and Spain):




Aka: Spain still learning to construct hurricanes (link)


If it moves West... we might see another invest.
Holy Shitake mushrooms Batman --- forget "As The World Turns", we have "As The Blog Spins"
"Ignoring" the problem and discussion of the same only raises more doubt.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Power was cut to 86,000 households as the area was hit by gusts of up to 140 miles (227 kilometers) per hour, the highest level the bureau's equipment can measure, it said.


They need more modern equipment... like what Cuba has.
Ahhh serenity :)
Lot of missing posts.. but at least I can read the weather and not get mad :)

I thinks that surfmom is going to have her hands full in the next week or so.. that Caribbean blob is going to Tampa after it leaves Cuba
Quoting zoomiami:
Also see that the track for Kyle has moved more to the west - seems that the biggest affect for the NE will be the rain.

Have watched the wind warnings for most of Maine, not much in the way of winds.

Anyone on here from Nova Scotia?


I'm in Yarmouth, NS. Not looking forward to the next 24 hours.
Quoting sngalla:


Is this the area that some are saying is headed towards FL?


Yes
Quoting IKE:
NCEP shows a 1008 mb low over the Yucatan.


Do you see the spin down near Chetumal ( but off the East Coast of the Yucatan)?
On the GOM visible there seems to be a nice spin down there just off the coast.
high orca, how strong do you think the winds will be when the low cruises by key west TIA
767. IKE
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Do you see the spin down near Chetumal ( but off the East Coast of the Yucatan)?
On the GOM visible there seems to be a nice spin down there just off the coast.


I see a spin near the north coast of the Yucatan.
Quoting IKE:


I see a spin near the north coast of the Yucatan.
I also see one on the east coast of the yucatan under that blob.
769. bcn
Spain low quikscat
Quoting bluenosedave:


I'm in Yarmouth, NS. Not looking forward to the next 24 hours.


I need you to do me a favor.. drive up to Halifax.. and protect Chris Brothers from Storm damage and looters.. while your there.. ship me any excess TNT pepperoni they have.
It looks like there are a couple of ''spins'' around the Yucatan...we'll see which one wins to become the ''main center''...
772. IKE
Forecast for Montgomery,AL for next week...

Wednesday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Wednesday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Thursday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Thursday Night
Clear. Lows in the lower 50s.

Friday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.

Friday Night
Clear. Lows in the mid 50s.

Saturday
Sunny. Highs in the upper 70s.
Quoting Enola:
Hey, I've got a weather question!

As a non-met, both Kyle and 95L seem to be very far north for this time of year. Why are they there?


Storms regularly move as far north as where Kyle and 95L are; one storm was even still tropical when it reached the Arctic Circle! The current location of 95L is also very close to where Jerry formed last year (in fact, Jerry formed pretty much the same way).
Quoting keywestbrat:
wow the spin in the middle atlantic is huge, will it get stronger and where do we think it will go?

Link


How come this huge area is being ignored on this blog? (I mean other than all the chaff)Is it the "95L" that is eing referred to, and if so why doesn't it show up on the Tropic graphics along with Kyle?
Tropical Cyclone Warning #37 (1500z 28SEPT)
===========================================

Subject: CATEGORY THREE TYPHOON OVERLAND TAIWAN

At 0:00 AM JST, Typhoon Jangmi (960 hPa) located at 24.4N 121.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts up to 105 knots. The storm is reported as moving north-northwest at 7 knots.

JMA Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center in east quadrant
50 NM from the center is west quadrant

Gale-Force Winds
================
210 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 27.8N 122.6E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
45 HRS: 29.5N 126.7E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
69 HRS: 31.0N 135.8E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
Let us all learn from this. Forgiveness is in the heart. Hatred and anger is from evil. Thank you to all for your contributions and efforts. Remeber the cause that is before us, however you contribute.

May GOD Bless you all.
777. IKE
Trough at 96 hrs. on the 12Z GFS....

Now that I have done further analysis on the Yucatan disturbance, its rather disorganized at the moment as there may not be a closed surface circulation as I had stated earlier and the center remains over Belize at this time. The Yucatan disturbance is struggling with dry air and stronger wind shear on the north side which has prevented any further organization from occuring. This may take much longer than I had anticipated for this all to come together into a tropical depression.

Photobucket
Where have my posts gone?
test,,,
c'mon fixed the blogs please this is my 4th post eaten
782. Enola
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Storms regularly move as far north as where Kyle and 95L are; one storm was even still tropical when it reached the Arctic Circle! The current location of 95L is also very close to where Jerry formed last year (in fact, Jerry formed pretty much the same way).

Thank you! :)
this is the 3rd on this if its eaten again i'll go ugh
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Where have my posts gone?


I think the Admin is busy "cleaning" the blog up; I am sure many of the posts from earlier are disappearing.
786. Enola
Quoting btwntx08:
...this is my 4th post eaten

The blog is hungry this morning :)
Quoting IKE:


TMI.....this is not going to end nicely and looks terrible.


Ike, what will not end is our support for the folks in Texas. I posted a response to all of this earlier and will waste no more time on it. I also just posted my last response to this issue in my blog if you are interested in reading it.

There are more important things for us to be working on, like the logistics of getting the next load of supplies in to the area. So that said, I am off to continue the effort that is truly important. Thanks for everyone's support and as usual, we will continue to provide updates on our actions.

John
Where is my last post? Did I say something wrong?
Expanding on what Michael posted in comment #773, although SST's are cooler around 40°N and generally below the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation, the atmosphere at this latitude is cooler, which allows for these initially cold core storms to gradually acquire a warm core relative to their environment. These cyclones are usually much more shallow than their purely tropical counterparts and can withstand bouts of high winds at upper levels as these storms are generally located below the 300mb level.
Quoting bluenosedave:


I'm in Yarmouth, NS. Not looking forward to the next 24 hours.


Go to Timmie's before it hits, get some essential supplies and hunker down ;-)
make that 5 posts ughh
RE:790. sullivanweather

Thanks, I was wondering the same thing as Michael...

This is an ahhhh... that makes sense moment
Quoting sullivanweather:
Expanding on what Michael posted in comment #773, although SST's are cooler around 40°N and generally below the 26°C threshold for tropical cyclone formation, the atmosphere at this latitude is cooler, which allows for these initially cold core storms to gradually acquire a warm core relative to their environment. These cyclones are usually much more shallow than their purely tropical counterparts and can withstand bouts of high winds at upper levels as these storms are generally located below the 300mb level.


Thanks to both of you, for that informative insight and elaboration.
Quoting Cotillion:


Thanks to both of you, for that informative insight and elaboration.


It even scared me.. I actually understood it.
Now that I have done further analysis on the Yucatan disturbance, its rather disorganized at the moment as there may not be a closed surface circulation as I had stated earlier and the center remains over Belize at this time. The Yucatan disturbance is struggling with dry air and stronger wind shear on the north side which has prevented any further organization from occuring. This may take much longer than I had anticipated for this all to come together into a tropical depression.

Photobucket
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:
people on iggy list:

* Ike
* Bay


Is publishing this on the blog necessary? I think not.
AFternoon all. RE:762 Orca - LOL Yup looks like I'm going to have my hands full this week, figures the spouse will be away on business. Always seem to get what I ask for....but then I have to pay LOL...hopefully --at the very least....I'll get some good surf.

piecing together the humanblog story this AM -- my heart hurts. Why I love my four-leggeds - far more honest
RE: 797. presslord

I will send you send you a copy of the paypal transaction details (w/o my account info, naturally) to update your records. I would rather send it email, so if you WUmail me with your email - it will be on the way.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Ahhh serenity :)
Lot of missing posts.. but at least I can read the weather and not get mad :)

I thinks that surfmom is going to have her hands full in the next week or so.. that Caribbean blob is going to Tampa after it leaves Cuba


are you talking about the low near the yucatan or act 2 after it??
A new blog at this juncture would be a welcome remedy.

From the NHC discussion, they're getting less bullish on Kyle, hinting it may not even be a hurricane anymore with the extratropical process already beginning. Fairly stable weakening is forecast which is welcome news.
NEW BLOG!
LOL...my wu family is as dysfunctional as my own!!! Ok...back to the purpose of this blog.

It is a rare day when I have to talk to NavCanada (the Canadian air traffic control folks) about hurricanes/tropical storm impact to aviation in their airspace. Due to cloud height on convective activity associated with Kyle I believe the traffic destined to Europe via the North Atlantic Tracks will be affected. I hate to say it but I am starting to wish for snow events!!!!!