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Little Change to Julia and Karl in the Atlantic

By: Jeff Masters 3:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2016

Like some annoying insect that keeps buzzing around and won’t go away despite repeated attempts to swat it, Tropical Depression Julia continues to spin away a few hundred miles off the coast of South Carolina. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed that Julia continued to struggle with high wind shear, with the low-level center of the storm completely exposed to view and the heaviest thunderstorms several hundred miles from the center. No offshore buoys were reporting sustained winds over 15 mph on Sunday morning.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Julia.

Forecast for Julia
Julia is embedded in an atmosphere with very dry air (50% relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere) and wind shear is expected to stay high, 20 - 30 knots, through Sunday evening. These conditions should cause the storm to continue to struggle as it meanders off the coast of South Carolina in an atmosphere with weak steering currents. Wind shear is expected to weaken to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots on Monday, which may give Julia a window of opportunity to intensify into a weak tropical storm once more. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft is on call to investigate Julia on Monday afternoon, if necessary. Wind shear is expected to increase again to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, by Monday night, which would likely stop any further attempts at intensification.


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of Karl.

Tropical Storm Karl continues west with little change
Tropical Storm Karl was headed west at 12 mph in the central tropical Atlantic late Sunday morning, and does not pose a threat to any land areas for at least the next five days. Satellite images on Sunday morning showed much the same picture as the previous three days: Karl had a large circulation and plenty of low-level spiral bands, but the center was nearly completely exposed to view due to moderate wind shear of 15 knots, with the storm’s heavy thunderstorms limited to the northeast side of the center. Karl had marginal conditions for development, with relative humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere 45 - 50% and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) near 27.5°C (82°F). By Monday, SSTs will increase to 28°C and wind shear is expected to drop to the low range—less than 10 knots. These conditions favor strengthening. However, the atmosphere surrounding Karl will be quite dry through Tuesday, which should slow development.

The track forecast for Karl for the next five days is fairly straightforward, with the steering currents expected to take the storm west, then west-northwest. Karl should clear the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by several hundred miles at the time of its closest approach on Wednesday, and wind up at a point midway between the Bahamas and Bermuda on Friday. At that point, Karl is likely to be a hurricane, and will start generating large swells which will begin impacting the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas early next week. The big question is—will Karl make landfall on the U.S. East Coast early next week? Hurricane forecasts more than five days in advance are quite unreliable, but residents along the U.S. East Coast can take heart from the fact that a strong trough of low pressure is predicted to pass to the north of Karl early next week. This would result in a recurving path for Karl to the north and then northeast, with the storm missing the U.S. East Coast. This was the prediction from the 12Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday runs of our two top models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models. Moreover, more than 90% of the 50 members of the 00Z Sunday run of the European ensemble forecast and all 20 members of the 00Z Sunday GFS ensemble forecast predicted that Karl would miss the U.S. Given these forecasts, it currently appears that Bermuda and the Maritime Provinces of Canada are the only land areas at significant risk from a direct hit from Karl next week. Still, long range forecasts like this are unreliable, and we will have to watch the evolution of the forecast of the upper air pattern in the coming days to see if a landfall along the U.S. East Coast early next week might be in the cards.

96L off the coast of Africa may develop
A large tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 96L) was located between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday morning. The tropical wave has favorable conditions for development through Tuesday as it heads west-northwest at 10 - 15 mph through the Cabo Verde Islands. The latest 00Z Sunday runs of our three top models for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, European and UKMET models—all showed development of the system over the next three days. 96L is headed into a region of ocean where very few storms ever threaten any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Sunday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC kept their 2-day and 5-day development odds at 40% and 70%, respectively.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for sunday morning update
Seem to be posting early each day but I thought I already posted early to this same blog yesterday. Anyway, thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks Dr. Masters! Let's see what the next 2 months and 14 days left of the season have to offer, I am looking forward to the cool-down expected for late September to really kick off the Fall season.
The year of the stubborn swirl. The leftover 500mb circulation of old 92-L is still producing rain along the C. Louisiana coast.


EPac Paine, forecast to be a flash-in-the-pan 48-hour wonder as it speeds over the tight SST gradient off Baja, heading north and probably bringing substantial rains to the lower Colorado River valley along the CA-AZ border.
watch for matthew down the road.
Great blog. Yes Julia is still ANNOYING....Thanks Doc!
Thanks Dr. Masters. A pretty anemic hurricane season indeed so far. Not to say that's good or bad, just the way it is. No changes at all to my thoughts from yesterday about the state of things in the Atlantic.

-Julia is a non-issue. Could become a remnant low at any time (maybe right now?)
-Karl remains very weak and could still degenerate into a remnant low in the next couple days. Assuming it survives, it should strengthen as it starts to recurve. Only potential direct land impacts would be to Bermuda, but they should keep a close eye on it.
-96L may spin up, may not, either way should be a non-issue.

The only thing impressive in the Atlantic right now is the strength and expanse of large-scale subsidence.

By the way, on the other side of the world, Malakas has re-intensified to a secondary peak. JTWC has its intensity at 90kts, but it's more likely around 105kts. Heading for southwest Japan. Should start weakening again very soon as it hits the higher latitude shear.

Quoting 9. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. Masters. A pretty anemic hurricane season indeed so far. Not to say that's good or bad, just the way it is. No changes at all to my thoughts from yesterday about the state of things in the Atlantic.

-Julia is a non-issue. Could become a remnant low at any time (maybe right now?)
-Karl remains very weak and could still degenerate into a remnant low in the next couple days. Assuming it survives, it should strengthen as it starts to recurve. Only potential direct land impacts would be to Bermuda, but they should keep a close eye on it.
-96L may spin up, may not, either way should be a non-issue.

The only thing impressive in the Atlantic right now is the strength and expanse of large-scale subsidence.





i do not agreed with this please go read the NHC forecast so you can get a better idea on whats going on has this idea of yours is going too be all wrong
Quoting 7. markot:

watch for matthew down the road.

What? Karl not plowing into the east coast as a cat 3 anymore? In all seriousness, I did see the 384 hour model (I know, fantasy land) and would like to know if most storms in the extreme western carib turn NE into FL.
Quoting 9. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. Masters. A pretty anemic hurricane season indeed so far. Not to say that's good or bad, just the way it is. No changes at all to my thoughts from yesterday about the state of things in the Atlantic.

-Julia is a non-issue. Could become a remnant low at any time (maybe right now?)
-Karl remains very weak and could still degenerate into a remnant low in the next couple days. Assuming it survives, it should strengthen as it starts to recurve. Only potential direct land impacts would be to Bermuda, but they should keep a close eye on it.
-96L may spin up, may not, either way should be a non-issue.

The only thing impressive in the Atlantic right now is the strength and expanse of large-scale subsidence.



Polarized: Atlantic and Australia being the Poles.
Quoting 11. thetwilightzone:




i do not agreed with this please go read the NHC forecast so you can get a better idea on whats going on has this idea of yours is going too be all wrong

I can assure you I've read the NHC forecasts... Perhaps you should take a closer look at them? I haven't said much if anything that contradicts their forecasts. I'd be interested in what you disagree with...
Wow, two posts in two days. Hmmm something must be up. Still not sure why the tropical wave that passed the Lesser Antilles is not noted anywhere.
Quoting 14. MAweatherboy1:


I can assure you I've read the NHC forecasts... Perhaps you should take a closer look at them? I haven't said much if anything that contradicts their forecasts. I'd be interested in what you disagree with...


Julia may be a non issue to you, but we in coastal carolina watch her skeptically. Been burned before with storms crossing Gulf stream.
And also some folks in Louisiana just got dumped on by invest 92 which is something they certainly didnt need.
My point is that the season hasnt been a non issue to everybody.
Quoting 16. K8eCane:



Julia may be a non issue to you, but we in coastal carolina watch her skeptically. Been burned before with storms crossing Gulf stream.
And also some folks in Louisiana just got dumped on by invest 92 which is something they certainly didnt need.
My point is that the season hasnt been a non issue to everybody.

Nothing wrong with a skeptical eye... I don't think you have much to worry about this time though. Rarely will a full hurricane season go by without someone being impacted, but given some of the pre-season predictions, I think a lot of people were expecting much worse things this year. It's not over of course, plenty of time left.
Quoting 3. Climate175:

Thanks Dr. Masters! Let's see what the next 1 month and 14 days left of the season have to offer, I am looking forward to the cool-down expected for late September to really kick off the Fall season.
Amen. I see the first 60's for our lows at end of our ten day forecast here in Mississippi. It's been a long summer this year. The nights had no relief. Just caught a nice batch of rain from the gulf this morning, not sure if it was ex 92l, but it was a great downpour.



This is a surface map...,very rare thing here.



Thanks Doc...Subsidence over the Atlantic Basin is a blessing...May it continue..
Here comes that Front in the Central US that will bring the late September cool-down.
Quoting 21. hydrus:

Thanks Doc...Subsidence over the Atlantic Basin is a blessing...May it continue..
Not so much for the islands that need the rain.
With the decreasing shear and warming SSTs, Karl is finally starting to get dressed:



Nice convective burst occuring around the center. Will be interesting to see what it does overnight tonight.
Quoting 3. Climate175:

Thanks Dr. Masters! Let's see what the next 1 month and 14 days left of the season have to offer, I am looking forward to the cool-down expected for late September to really kick off the Fall season.


I hope the NHC keeps looking for 2 months and 14 days.......
Abrupt turn to the NE due to the trough.
Quoting 22. Climate175:

Here comes that Front in the Central US that will bring the late September cool-down.
Yes to the Midwest, and that's about it.
Quoting 25. nrtiwlnvragn:



I hope the NHC keeps looking for 2 months and 14 days.......
Until December? LOL, wouldn't be surprised. By the way, are they still watching NONAME?
Quoting 25. nrtiwlnvragn:



I hope the NHC keeps looking for 2 months and 14 days.......

How about 3 months and 13 days!?
Quoting 7. markot:

watch for matthew down the road.


What, you've given up on Karl? Just yesterday you said it was a serious threat to the US.
Quoting 27. NativeSun:

Yes to the Midwest, and that's about it.
It extends it's way to the east eventually.
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters, No mention of Payne.

Looks like this maybe a Payne in the ass for Baja California.
Quoting 23. Kyon5:

Not so much for the islands that need the rain.
This is true..They still may get some if the T-wave train continues into October.
Quoting 28. Climate175:

Until December? LOL, wouldn't be surprised. By the way, are they still watching NONAME?


Last I checked the Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 to November 30. Actually it is the Navy having NONAME still active.


Big changes in the 12Z GFS. Karl misses the trough and stalls out, strengthening into a powerful hurricane. Then a 2nd trough comes in to save the day.

Dry air with Relative Humidity of 45-50% is the battle Karl will have to fight, everything else is poised for strengthening. I do believe it will be a struggle with only slow strengthening until 60W. We should know by that point what will be the steering influences of Karl. Although less likely for a U.S landfall I'm not confident U.S. is out of the woods yet, especially if Karl remains weak longer, keep watching.
Quoting 34. nrtiwlnvragn:



Last I checked the Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 to November 30. Actually it is the Navy having NONAME still active.




December storms do form from time to time. They usually either develop in the Caribbean or central Atlantic. The last time we had a December named storm was Olga in 2007, although 2013 had an unnamed subtropical storm near the Azores. I wouldn't be overwhelmingly surprised if we got one this year with warmer than normal SSTs and expected below-normal shear in December in parts of the Atlantic.
Quoting 9. MAweatherboy1:

Thanks Dr. Masters. A pretty anemic hurricane season indeed so far. ..


Actually we are above ave for the number of storms, and we still have 10 weeks left of the hurricane season.
Not every year is going to be like 2005.
This year however have been unusual in that storms have had to deal with much more shear than anticipated by the long range forecasters.
I remember when we had circular blobs approaching the Islands all the time, not the sheared messes we have had recently.
39. vis0
The gyroLOW SSE of Mississippi (gyro?, what i call as to those "weird" L(O)Ws with same sized HIGH over it, caused La. and neighboring states non TS named major floods recently ) is using its HIGH to cut into Julia's NE quad. trough also in the deal.
 
Little change to Julia and Karl in the Atlantic
"Little" TO ME could mean step by step to nature so stay aware and with the utmost respect observe the 365/24/7 teacher(s), Dr. Master?/Mr. Benson? oh yeah and nature.
 
Has there ever been the same invest number existing 2 times in any ocean (though Ques. centered on ATL)
 
Example two 92Ls or an x92L and a 92L. (not expecting anything this TS year but in the near future??)

going to watch some games so no need to rush the research.
Quoting 34. nrtiwlnvragn:



Last I checked the Atlantic Hurricane Season is from June 1 to November 30. Actually it is the Navy having NONAME still active.



Ok.
LoL...

Ack!


Ppppfth'


Blog hole?
Quoting 43. washingtonian115:

Blog hole?
Yep, this is really getting old.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 181733
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Julia, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of the
coast of South Carolina, and on Tropical Storm Karl, located midway
between the Leeward Islands and Africa.

A large low pressure, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by mid-week while the low moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and strong
gusty winds are possible in the Cabo Verde Islands during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 32. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters, No mention of Payne.

Looks like this maybe a Payne in the ass for Baja California.


The hurricane that just recent hit Baja was labeled as a surprise because of its location and rapid development, even though people were watching it and talking about it for many days.
I wonder if this system will also be a "surprise" just because it happens to be in the Eastern Pacific?
Karl is at DMIN right now, will be interesting to see if it will have a good DMAX, pull itself together and strengthen a bit.
Quoting 13. Uragani:


Polarized: Atlantic and Australia being the Poles.


Sorry for OT, but I couldn't resist.



Would not be good for North Atlantic TC activity.
49. 7544
keeping one eye north of pr looks like something trying to get together there imo
Where the comments end up:
Been dry here the last few weeks and we could really use a good soaking.October has delivered these last few years like clock work so hopefully we get some good rains coming out way.
Looks like some banding may be starting to form:



An intense convective burst is also starting to occur over the center. First time in a while Karl is generating convection southeast of the center. Looks to be benefitting nicely from the lower shear and warming SSTs. Tonight should give a nice kick start to Karl with SSTs of 28C and shear lowering to less than 10 kts during Dmax. Its current convective bursts are a good sign given it's nearing Dmin over the system.
Anyone out there?
Comment will not appear immediately. If I'm wrong, I shall eat my face
Wow it's dead
Anything left this season?
Not that we had much to look at...few could have beens
Quoting 8. K8eCane:

Great blog. Yes Julia is still ANNOYING....Thanks Doc!

Annoying?? She's such a cute little swirl ...
Why do we have two named systems in the atlantic

Quoting 57. EmsiNasklug:


Annoying?? She's such a cute little swirl ...
We in the Eastern Pacific are of no consequence, so we're not worth mentioning......
Quoting 46. Sfloridacat5:



The hurricane that just recent hit Baja was labeled as a surprise because of its location and rapid development, even though people were watching it and talking about it for many days.
I wonder if this system will also be a "surprise" just because it happens to be in the Eastern Pacific?
Evac'd to Albuquerque, NM.

Quoting 32. PedleyCA:
Thanks for the Update Dr. Masters, No mention of Payne.
I was surprised to see that name (actually Paine, so it's even less a stretch). Sort of like naming a storm Morte.
TS Karl...

Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Been dry here the last few weeks and we could really use a good soaking.October has delivered these last few years like clock work so hopefully we get some good rains coming out way.


134 days without rain here. Hope you get yours soon. Currently 95.9F, 103F at the Airport across the river (KRAL).... about the same number of days since this site worked right...lol
Quoting 61. bappit:

I was surprised to see that name (actually Paine, so it's even less a stretch). Sort of like naming a storm Morte.


Must have read that wrong (obviously). TY for the correction....
I think Karl will be well south of this if it is that weak as shown here on 12z Euro, if it is much stronger then yes that is probably a good position in 4 days.


Quoting 56. 19N81W:

Wow it's dead
Anything left this season?
Not that we had much to look at...few could have beens


Has more to do with the way the server has been lately. We have had plenty to look at, get your head out of the sand
For all who missed the very good news from Itbayat (the lost island) this morning in the old blog:

Zero casualty: Government reaches isolated Batanes island

'We will treat rehabilitation in Batanes with urgency' says Undersecretary Ricardo Jalad, NDRRMC chief
Rappler, Published 8:24 PM, September 18, 2016

Photos here on facebook.

---------------------------

Another subject. Stumbled over this article (nice read):
When Hurricane Hunters Are Replaced by Drones
For more than 70 years, pilots have flown into the center of deadly storms to collect crucial scientific and forecasting data. Is it time to have robots do that work for them?
Adrienne LaFrance Sep 15, 2016
Excerpt:
“The Hurricane Hunters have a fantastic, 70-year history and I enjoyed my years flying as a crew member,” he [Jeffrey Long] said. “But, I can't see manned recon flights lasting much more than 10 more years. I just hope they're not decommissioned much sooner. I think the NOAA aircraft—Kermit, Miss Piggy, and Gonzo—would be the last to go, but we might see a phased drawdown in the 10 Air Force WC-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft with a drone replacement.”
Quoting 60. beell:

Evac'd to Albuquerque, NM.




What did you do to get evac'ed to Albuquerque? Must have been bad in a previous life.
.................

Fish after fish after fish after fish :\
Quoting 70. CaribBoy:

Fish after fish after fish after fish :\

Quoting 70. CaribBoy:

Fish after fish after fish after fish :\

Alex, Bonnie, Collin, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, and Julia weren't fishes.
Bruh. Ga weg.

Quoting 69. CaribBoy:

.................




That might be fish for you, maybe not for some of us. I do think the trough will lure Karl northeast beforehand though. But the strong ridging pattern doesn't make me feel confident about it.
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Been dry here the last few weeks and we could really use a good soaking.October has delivered these last few years like clock work so hopefully we get some good rains coming out way.

You and many others on the East Coast look to be recieving some much needed rain over the next few days.
Australia: More heavy rain set to lash flooded Victorian towns
AAP, 6:01am September 19, 2016


Falling rocks forced a partial closure of Great Ocean Road. (9NEWS)

Video: Flooding on Victoria's Great Ocean Road
Guardian/AAP: Sunday 18 September 2016 04.59 BST
Video footage of the Great Ocean Road before it was closed on Tuesday 13 September due to landslides, flooding and fallen trees. Fifty kilometres of the road from Moggs Creek to Skenes Creek were closed.
77. nw5b

Quoting 68. VAstorms:



What did you do to get evac'ed to Albuquerque? Must have been bad in a previous life.
Believe me...There are much worse places in New Mexico than Albuquerque!
...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is entering the E Caribbean waters. The wave
extends from 10N to 20N with axis near 62W moving west at 15 kt
over the past 24 hours. The wave is in a region of favorable deep
layer wind shear, however CIRA LPW imagery from the surface to 850
mb show patches of dry air within its environment that likely
limit the convective activity to isolated showers across the
Lesser Antilles.
Caribbean Water Vapor Loop
TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
500 PM AST SUN SEP 18 2016

Karl predicted to strengthen.
The GFS and ECMWF models continue to forecast the vertical wind
shear to decrease to less than 10 kt from now through the end of the
forecast period, with near-zero shear values at times
between 72-120 hours. Such low shear values continue to favor a
strengthening trend, especially since Karl will be moving over 30C
SSTs by days 4 and 5.

Still we've seen how dry air strips these systems of convection.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 18.3N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 18.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 19.0N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 19.7N 52.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 20.5N 54.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 22.9N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 25.4N 64.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 28.0N 67.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Is Karl following forecast points?
I have them written down for next 72 hours so can return the favor.
And here's our next little bundle of joy, 96L:

. A large low pressure, located a couple of hundred miles southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a widespread area of
cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by mid-week while the low moves
west-northwestward to northwestward across the eastern tropical
Atlantic. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and strong
gusty winds are possible in the Cabo Verde Islands during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent
Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 80. Chicklit:

Is Karl following forecast points?
I really don't think so.
Afternoon all. I see Julia is set to make landfall again, and Karl is supposed to strengthen to hurricane again this week .... plus gold in the eastern ATL .... active, but in a low-key sort of way ....
Quoting 70. CaribBoy:

Fish after fish after fish after fish :\


What are you talking about? I've been impacted by 2 tropical storms so far this year.
Quoting 72. MrTornadochase:


Alex, Bonnie, Collin, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, and Julia weren't fishes.


Gaston affected the Azores too
In case somebody already feels cold ;-)
Good night, folks ...

What it was like holidaying in Dubai in the middle of a 50C heatwave
September 19, 20167:08am

The hottest inhabited place on earth: Inside Ethiopias sizzling cauldron
BBC Travel, By Dave Stamboulis, 16 September 2016
Quoting 71. barbamz:




Lol
Quoting 68. VAstorms:



What did you do to get evac'ed to Albuquerque? Must have been bad in a previous life.


Just a horrible place to be...working.



Albuquerque, Albuquerque International Airport (KABQ)
Lat: 35.04° N Lon: 106.61° Elev: 5351ft.
Fair
85°F
29°C
Humidity 8%
Wind Speed SW 8 mph
Barometer 30.19 in (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint 17°F (-8°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 82°F (28°C)
Last update 18 Sep 3:52 pm MDT

Quoting 71. barbamz:





Yep, here FISHY here FISHY FISHY lol!
Quoting 83. Bucsboltsfan:



What are you talking about? I've been impacted by 2 tropical storms so far this year.


Don't hate me but honestly I don't pay much attention to storms W of 63W. Unless they move E... like Lenny and Omar.

Based on that, this year is very disappointing to me.

Fiona = Fish

Gaston = Fish

Ian = Fish

Karl = Fish

96L/Future Lisa = Fish

99L/Pre Hermine was my only real chance to experience a TC but didn't develop E of us.

So yes, storms E of 63W were mostly Fishes. The other half that have occured west of 63W, well ...
"Julia's low-level circulation has continued to improve despite the
lack of organized deep convection near the well-defined center.
However, some tight curved banding features consisting of shallow to
moderate convection have developed within 100 nmi of the center
during the past few hours" -NHC 5PM discussion.

If they say so... looks to me like it's been a naked swirl for close to 12 hours. Barring a burst of real convection in the next few hours, the 11PM advisory should be its last based strictly on the definition of a tropical cyclone.

Lol that cone is silly huge...we need the rain here. Who knows where she will go.

Surf could be up next week courtesy of Karl. Hopefully that is all. Just got back from Nags Head/ Kitty Hawk. Big and sloppy surf yesterday.

Quoting 73. win1gamegiantsplease:

Bruh. Ga weg.


GFS and GEFS show something near the Lesser Antilles by 240h.

GEFS shows two possible tracks : W towards the SE Caribbean or NW towards the NE Caribbean



GFS likes the S solution for now.



Considering how weak the ridge is... I don't understand by the 18z GFS moves the storm towards the West..



Quoting 93. CaribBoy:

Considering how weak the ridge is... I don't understand by the 18z GFS moves the storm towards the West..


Matthew and Nicole. Would be pretty sweet to have them. I hope if Matthew forms it continues west to Central America.
Quoting 89. CaribBoy:



Don't hate me but honestly I don't pay much attention to storms W of 63W. Unless they move E... like Lenny and Omar.

Based on that, this year is very disappointing to me.

Fiona = Fish

Gaston = Fish

Ian = Fish

Karl = Fish

96L/Future Lisa = Fish

99L/Pre Hermine was my only real chance to experience a TC but didn't develop E of us.

So yes, storms E of 63W were mostly Fishes. The other half that have occured west of 63W, well ...



Gaston was not a fish it made land fall in the Azores has a TS

its way too early too say what Karl will do but if it make land fall on bermuda on the way it wont be a fish


Alex was all so not a fish has it made land fall in the Azores has well

this be come the storm dos not make land fall on you dos not mean it will be a fish has it could be land falling on some one else other then you

Quoting 81. HurricaneAndre:

I really don't think so.

Thanks Andre, but I was talking about specific forecast points as posted in the NHC Tropical Storm KARL Discussion
what the heck ? did Karl just DISSIPATED ? tonight ?

Quoting 87. beell:



Just a horrible place to be...working.



Albuquerque, Albuquerque International Airport (KABQ)
Lat: 35.04 N Lon: 106.61 Elev: 5351ft.
Fair
85F
29C
Humidity 8%
Wind Speed SW 8 mph
Barometer 30.19 in (1014.1 mb)
Dewpoint 17F (-8C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 82F (28C)
Last update 18 Sep 3:52 pm MDT



People move out there for that 8% humidity factor.
Particularly those of us with sensitive sinuses or sinusitis.
I could go for some of that air after living in FL for 31 years.
Malakas heading for Japan.

u.n.m.grad.here...\\lobos.basketball
101. SLU
Quoting 93. CaribBoy:

Considering how weak the ridge is... I don't understand by the 18z GFS moves the storm towards the West..






This one is for me. I've had absolutely no activity this year so far. Not even an interesting wave like pre-Earl, 92L or 99L. They all went north of me. In fact I haven't experienced a TC since Dean 2007.
There's only one thing I can say, BRING ON WINTER!!!!!!
103. nw5b
Quoting 100. islander101010:

u.n.m.grad.here...\\lobos.basketball



NMSU here...Aggies.
Quoting 97. thetwilightzone:

what the heck ? did Karl just DISSIPATED ? tonight ?


Yep Karl is done.
Quoting 93. CaribBoy:

Considering how weak the ridge is... I don't understand by the 18z GFS moves the storm towards the West..


Gonna take a lot to pull a storm out from under 15N
Quoting 104. HurricaneAndre:

Yep Karl is done.

Personally I don't think so, latest NHC discussion said that Karl has a very small but vigorous circulation. We'll see what they have to say at 11PM though.
In Karl's life thus far, this probably represents a sweet spot.
109. ackee
So the GFS keeps dropping and developing that wave once it nears the eastern carribbean given how the season has been system have struggle in the carribbean seeing is believing for me plenty of time to watch it
Quoting 95. thetwilightzone:



Gaston was not a fish it made land fall in the Azores has a TS

its way too early too say what Karl will do but if it make land fall on bermuda on the way it wont be a fish


Alex was all so not a fish has it made land fall in the Azores has well

this be come the storm dos not make land fall on you dos not mean it will be a fish has it could be land falling on some one else other then you




we have been over this everything that isn't a cat 5 typhoon tip size storm doing loop de loops around him for 10 days is a fish to carriboy.
a Houdini poof again?
Quoting 111. ETFRIEND:

a Houdini poof again?


That was a serious poof. However, just in the last frame a new cell is forming.
Quoting 101. SLU:



This one is for me. I've had absolutely no activity this year so far. Not even an interesting wave like pre-Earl, 92L or 99L. They all went north of me. In fact I haven't experienced a TC since Dean 2007.


Hurricane Tomas, 2010 -should have been right in your area likewise to Dean... what's up with the lack of recollection of that system?

Blessings!
Quoting 97. thetwilightzone:

what the heck ? did Karl just DISSIPATED ? tonight ?




Relax! We wouldn't look so good either, if we just ingested 4 million tons of dust
AL, 12, 2016091806, , BEST, 0, 179N, 418W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016091812, , BEST, 0, 180N, 429W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016091818, , BEST, 0, 182N, 443W, 35, 1006, TS
AL, 12, 2016091900, , BEST, 0, 182N, 456W, 35, 1006, TS

116. SLU
Quoting 113. NatureIsle:



Hurricane Tomas, 2010 -should have been right in your area likewise to Dean... what's up with the lack of recollection of that system?

Blessings!


I wasn't on island during those days so I missed Tomas.
Quoting 81. HurricaneAndre:

I really don't think so.

Karl was forecast to weaken to a TD for a few days around now but has stayed a little stronger that's about the only ting that wasn't on point. Karl wasn't forecast to really get going until two-three days from now.
I wonder if NHC will finally terminate advisories on Julia tonight. This is NOT a tropical cyclone.
Quoting 119. HurricaneFan:

I wonder if NHC will finally terminate advisories on Julia tonight. This is NOT a tropical cyclone.



I would love to see one reporting station with sustained TD winds. I feel pretty confident there isn't one.
What are they saying about the Atlantic's new invest?
Quoting 116. SLU:



I wasn't on island during those days so I missed Tomas.


Ok, understood...still despite of your 'personal T.C. drought' -let's hope & pray that You don't experience anything too severe or devastating in the line of Atlantic tropical cyclones. Tomas; from all accounts was deadly enough for you guys- to say nothing of 'Evil Erika' for us here. We are actually having of sort of system fatigue, and cyclogenesis weariness in our locale for the most part given the stressful nature of recent impacts...

May the Good Lord continue to Richly Bless us All this season!
Quoting 121. Icybubba:

What are they saying about the Atlantic's new invest?

It's likely to be a weak tropical storm that curves out to sea without affecting land.
Quoting 61. bappit:

I was surprised to see that name (actually Paine, so it's even less a stretch). Sort of like naming a storm Morte.
Yea, at first I thought it was someone being funny... They really shouldn't name a storm that-it's just wrong. At least it's not in the WPac-that would be way wrong
Quoting 117. GeoffreyWPB:







Is there any danger to the GOMEX from TD Julia?
Quoting 125. pureet1948:




Is there any danger to the GOMEX from TD Julia?


NO
Quoting 123. HurricaneFan:


It's likely to be a weak tropical storm that curves out to sea without affecting land.


I thought I heard reports that this would also be the last system of the entire season.
128. JLPR2


Hmm... IMO Karl should be downgraded to a TD at 11pm, LLC should be weaker due to the lack of sustained convection today.

Also... it looks like Julia is done.


Paine without suffering.
Quoting 131. Patrap:


Another beauty the Atlantic season was able to produce.
Quoting 132. Gearsts:

Another beauty the Atlantic season was able to produce.


Indeed.
Karl is at lest a TD right now




is there even a low level center any more ??? its really looking like there nothing lift of Karl tonight wind shear and dry air has taken its toll on it

The doom of the day!
Brought to you by the great forecasting system known as the gfs!
Quoting 51. washingtonian115:

Been dry here the last few weeks and we could really use a good soaking.October has delivered these last few years like clock work so hopefully we get some good rains coming out way.


Dry here as well. A/C died in my dorm room today. No A/C. :( Kinda stuffy now. University planted a stalky grass in the new quad area on campus, it's dying rapidly, not made for dry times and not made to be stepped on...which is the point of a quad - be stepped on. >.<

Celebrated my friend's 21st with his family today, so I had real food! :)
138. SLU
What a waste of a name

139. SLU
You know the Atlantic is ailing when you see a TC limp across the MDR like Karl in mid-September.

140. SLU
Quoting 129. BayFog:


Paine without suffering.


Nothing Paineful about tracking 17E.
I think with Karl the center will be closer to 18.1 or 18.2 at 11pm. Idk I'll find out when I wake up.
i say this blog hole thing is getting old fast you guys
Quoting 101. SLU:



This one is for me. I've had absolutely no activity this year so far. Not even an interesting wave like pre-Earl, 92L or 99L. They all went north of me. In fact I haven't experienced a TC since Dean 2007.


I understand, lack of action is really frustrating :( I got something from 97L, 99L, 92L and 93L... also we got good rains past 3 weeks and over 6 inches since the first of this month... so I should be happy with that... but despite this, I still want to experience a true storm. Being in an invest and being in a strong TS or hurricane is quite different :)
Quoting 136. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


The doom of the day!
Brought to you by the great forecasting system known as the gfs!
Don't worry. It will drop that idea next run.
Quoting 110. James1981cane:



we have been over this everything that isn't a cat 5 typhoon tip size storm doing loop de loops around him for 10 days is a fish to carriboy.


Definitely...
Quoting 130. Gearsts:




Hopefully stronger in the next few runs
End of the 18Z GFDL run. No way Karl turns northeast with that setup...

148. SLU
Quoting 143. CaribBoy:



I understand, lack of action is really frustrating :( I got something from 97L, 99L, 92L and 93L... also we got good rains past 3 weeks and over 6 inches since the first of this month... so I should be happy with that... but despite this, I still want to experience a true storm. Being in an invest and being in a strong TS or hurricane is quite different :)


lol. there's always more excitement when the system carries a name.
Quoting 144. unknowncomic:

Don't worry. It will drop that idea next run.

I agree with you 100 percent.
Quoting 127. Hurricanes101:



I thought I heard reports that this would also be the last system of the entire season.

Incredibly unlikely, we still have the rest of September, October, November and December before 2017, plus we have 96L
well the NHC said the heck with it RIP JULIA
Julia is finally a remnant low! Thereby ends the multiday saga of the weirdest tropical storm I have seen.
Karl is a tropical storm with 40 mph winds. Not a depression.
Quoting 150. Icybubba:


Incredibly unlikely, we still have the rest of September, October, November and December before 2017, plus we have 96L


very rare do we ever see a named storm in December hurricane season is over nov 31st i think we can still get named storms in nov but getting harder and harder and we will have higher wind shear out there OCT is the last moth we get some good size named storms out there after that we start getting in too higher shear and that is when we see things start shuting down for the season
155. JLPR2
Lesser Antilles visible to the west.


karl may be come a REMNANT LOW soon has well if it dos not start getting t-storm over the center the NHC normal waits 12hrs be for storms a REMNANT LOW


right now karl is in the same spot that julia is in if it dos not start too get t-storms over the center soon too keep it from be coming a Remnant low then it will soon be come a Remnant low has well like it or not

NHC mentions Karl is poorly organized, I think it has been that way since this morning well before this latest update going back to this morning surface vorticity was not looking good. Dry air could end Karl completely or he will survive because of the other favorable factors we will see. Should stay weak until past 60W.
The eye of Typhoon Malakas will be passing over the Kagoshima Prefecture (pop. 1.6 million).
The storm surge flowing into Kagoshima Bay should be quite substantial.
Track shows Malakas passing right over the city of Kagoshima and the placement of the eye puts Kagoshima Bay in the right front quadrant, being the worst place for storm surge into the bay.
...Aaaand, the 18z GFS is responding to the significant change in the upper air pattern over the United States by showing Caribbean development, just like I said might happen.



Obviously it's 276 hours and blah blah blah, so that's not my point. But it's showing how relevant this pattern is for generating something down there. Even if the trough is only temporary, we still need to watch it.
Quoting 160. KoritheMan:

...Aaaand, the 18z GFS is responding to the significant change in the upper air pattern over the United States by showing Caribbean development, just like I said might happen.



Obviously it's 276 hours and blah blah blah, so that's not my point. But it's showing how relevant this pattern is for generating something down there. Even if the trough is only temporary, we still need to watch it.


It needs to be consistent over several runs before I'll believe that. Too far out to say anything about this.
Quoting 129. BayFog:


Paine without suffering.


That made me laugh. :)
Quoting 161. SSL1441:



It needs to be consistent over several runs before I'll believe that. Too far out to say anything about this.


Like I said, it's not the actual prediction itself that's important. I'm sorta just saying that it's meteorologically plausible that we'll see an increase in moisture over the Caribbean if you get a big longwave trough stuck over southeast like that. The western Caribbean in particular is very responsive to these kind of situations.
Quoting 163. KoritheMan:



Like I said, it's not the actual prediction itself that's important. I'm sorta just saying that it's meteorologically plausible that we'll see an increase in moisture over the Caribbean if you get a big longwave trough stuck over southeast. The western Caribbean in particular is very responsive to these kind of situations.


The gfs originates this as a cape Verde system that broke away from the itcz
Quoting 137. Astrometeor:



Dry here as well. A/C died in my dorm room today. No A/C. :( Kinda stuffy now. University planted a stalky grass in the new quad area on campus, it's dying rapidly, not made for dry times and not made to be stepped on...which is the point of a quad - be stepped on. >.<

Celebrated my friend's 21st with his family today, so I had real food! :)


We had a good soaking here, got 1.23, though some parts of town had 2 or 3 inches today.
Rain total for September is 8.46 so far, though 5.81 came from Hermine.

That's crazy your A/C is broken, they better get on that, but you never know with dorms. I've never lived in a dorm and never wanted to, lol.

The period where weather gets boring here isn't too far away, though October and November do bring the first round of cold fronts which means more time to be outside and play football and go camping.

I'm always torn this time of year, I love the beach, summer thunderstorms, and tropical weather, but at the same time, 5 months of mostly 90's and 100 heat index days leaves me happy that cold fronts and the outdoor activities associated with them aren't far away.
Quoting 156. thetwilightzone:

karl may be come a REMNANT LOW soon has well if it dos not start getting t-storm over the center the NHC normal waits 12hrs be for storms a REMNANT LOW


right now karl is in the same spot that julia is in if it dos not start too get t-storms over the center soon too keep it from be coming a Remnant low then it will soon be come a Remnant low has well like it or not





I noticed much earlier today via nullschool, that it looks to be supporting 2 centers of circulation, hence the elongated vorticity. But, it was forecast for this anyway, so maybe not an actual big deal anyway.



Aside from that, just want to say a temporary good-bye to everyone. My uni course re-starts Tuesday, so aside from quick looks at the blog, no time for anything otherwise, as between that and work (and helping my daughter), just hardly a moment to spare. Tonight has been my last night of freedom! LOL

It's been really great having time to post a bit, as the previous season or two, I was working so much I didn't have time either. I know it's no big loss, as my comments are hardly mega and don't have much to say that's not already been said. But, for those I have some camaraderie with, just wanted to let you know, that I've not vanished because of the blog problems or anything else, just cause of uni!

So will end with, I hope Carriboy gets a load of much needed rain, a few OTS lovely storms for Washi and others, some rains for So. Cal and our commentors there cause it's my native lands, Vis 0 keeps with his sometimes difficult to translate posts, Aquadog continues with her singular wit, baha has fun working her local bar when she can, twilightzone taz keeps being quite funny and rather thoughtful in his posts as of late, Pat continues with his work and Gro looks no more than 50 for a 700 year old. So many more I could add, but about to go to bed on my last night of freedom, so that's all I can muster quickly. But I love you all, even those who bug me LOL And I do hope the issues really are being resolved, and it's not a method to make the blog seem obsolete by those higher up, to cut a bit of costs, as I've been looking in since the 2005 season and would be so completely sad if they were to trash it. Until later on, best wishes to all of you! I'll still be lurking any chance I get though! Mwah!
Quoting 164. SSL1441:



The gfs originates this as a cape Verde system that broke away from the itcz


Doesn't matter. Same situation, really. The formation point is irrelevant; it's showing the western Caribbean more favorable under such a pattern.
This will be imberrising for the NHC if Karl dissipates, I sure hope it does not dissipate
Quoting 168. Icybubba:

This will be imberrising for the NHC if Karl dissipates, I sure hope it does not dissipate


Your grammar is imberrising.
Quoting 156. thetwilightzone:

karl may be come a REMNANT LOW soon has well if it dos not start getting t-storm over the center the NHC normal waits 12hrs be for storms a REMNANT LOW


right now karl is in the same spot that julia is in if it dos not start too get t-storms over the center soon too keep it from be coming a Remnant low then it will soon be come a Remnant low has well like it or not



Caribboy is always saying stuff will become a cat 5 and you are always saying things will dissipate
Quoting 169. KoritheMan:



Your grammar is imberrising.

I noticed that after I typed it and did not bother to change it
Quoting 171. Icybubba:


I noticed that after I typed it and did not bother to change it


lol, I couldn't resist. It was the perfect opportunity.
173. IDTH
The longer Karl meanders, the longer it has a chance to avoid the trough's. Sinking air keeping a cap on it right now.
Nothing is dissipating!!
Quoting 174. Grothar:

Nothing is dissipating!!


Except Julia

Getting better.
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Julia,
which has become a post-tropical remnant low, and on Tropical Storm
Karl, located well east of the Leeward Islands.

1. A broad area of low pressure located near and south of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for some development over the next couple of days, and
a tropical depression is still likely to form by mid-week before
large-scale conditions become less favorable. Occasional heavy rains
and gusty winds associated with this system should diminish later
today over the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 127. Hurricanes101:



I thought I heard reports that this would also be the last system of the entire season.
The laugh value in reports like that is prodigious....
The most devastating storm of the 2015 season didn't get going until October.....
Quoting 127. Hurricanes101:



I thought I heard reports that this would also be the last system of the entire season.
The laugh value in reports like that is prodigious....
The most devastating storm of the 2015 season didn't get going until October.....
Quoting 158. SPShaw:

The eye of Typhoon Malakas will be passing over the Kagoshima Prefecture (pop. 1.6 million).
The storm surge flowing into Kagoshima Bay should be quite substantial.

I'm sure Taiwan's glad not to have gotten a direct strike from this ....
If Karl does strengthen, I sure hope it just goes out to sea. I mean who in their right mind would want a storm to inflict catastrophic damage and loss of life on anyone? Just saying.
good/morning...carib...two weeks could get hectic on the board.
Hi good morning everyone. Am here reporting from Northern leeward islands St.maarten.It's now 5 am and tropical storm Karl has not made the west north west turn like what the nhc model and the rest models forecasting. In fact just took a look at this on the live floater it seems to be jogging to the southwest again at 15 mph. I have notice every forecasted position where Karl was forecasted to be at a certain time frame it end up being different. Well we are here patiently waiting to know for sure if we are in the all clear.
Quoting 185. geraud1987:

Hi good morning everyone. Am here reporting from Northern leeward islands St.maarten.It's now 5 am and tropical storm Karl has not made the west north west turn like what the nhc model and the rest models forecasting. In fact just took a look at this on the radar it seems to be jogging to the southwest again at 15 mph. I have notice every forecasted position where Karl was forecasted to be at a certain time frame it end up being different. Well we are here patiently waiting to know for sure if we are in the all clear.
Seems to be moving as forecast imo.
189. JRRP7
Quoting 185. geraud1987:

Hi good morning everyone. Am here reporting from Northern leeward islands St.maarten.It's now 5 am and tropical storm Karl has not made the west north west turn like what the nhc model and the rest models forecasting. In fact just took a look at this on the radar it seems to be jogging to the southwest again at 15 mph. I have notice every forecasted position where Karl was forecasted to be at a certain time frame it end up being different. Well we are here patiently waiting to know for sure if we are in the all clear.

which radar ?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/12L/imager y/vis_lalo-animated.gif.

Like I said patiently waiting for the west north west turn from Monday and then northwestern turn. Until then we will watch. We here on this island have been through simular forecast where they expected stronger storm systems to pass north of the Northern leeward islands and some how they end up close or head on to us forecast tracks changes. Perfect example of this is hurricane Luis of 1995 September 4 and 5. Was first forecasted to pass the northern leeward islands end up hitting us very hard. A hurricane no one will ever forget. Also hurricane earl of 2010 was forecasted to pass north end up very close caused alot of problems. Since then we don't take chances with these systems.
after a long discussion of the forecast mlb nws posted this " if karl works out"
Quoting 191. islander101010:

after a long discussion of the forecast mlb nws posted this " if karl works out"


I agree if Karl works out..
Quoting 185. geraud1987:

Hi good morning everyone. Am here reporting from Northern leeward islands St.maarten.It's now 5 am and tropical storm Karl has not made the west north west turn like what the nhc model and the rest models forecasting. In fact just took a look at this on the live floater it seems to be jogging to the southwest again at 15 mph. I have notice every forecasted position where Karl was forecasted to be at a certain time frame it end up being different. Well we are here patiently waiting to know for sure if we are in the all clear.


That must be some super radar! No worries, Karl is going nowhere near the islands.
Quoting 193. Bucsboltsfan:



That must be some super radar! No worries, Karl is going nowhere near the islands.


Well like I said patiently waiting for the all clear
Quoting 193. Bucsboltsfan:



That must be some super radar! No worries, Karl is going nowhere near the islands.
It's not radar, it's satellite.
Quoting 195. Forsaken:

It's not radar, it's satellite.


Thanks but Didn't you see I've edited that post and replaced it with floater that's what I meant to type.
gfs watch out s. california
Well we are officially out of the cone in SE NC after a few days of the windshield wiper effect. Julia has been laid to rest and Karl is forecast to take an offshore fishing trip in the NE Atlantic ( and hopefully miss Bermuda). SE NC rarely escapes being in two, three, four, five cones during cane season. It just happens. Always has and probly always will. Oh and good morning everybody!
(if anybody is actually here)
Quoting 198. K8eCane:

Well we are officially out of the cone in SE NC after a few days of the windshield wiper effect. Julia has been laid to rest and Karl is forecast to take an offshore fishing trip in the NE Atlantic ( and hopefully miss Bermuda). SE NC rarely escapes being in two, three, four, five cones during cane season. It just happens. Always has and probly always will. Oh and good morning everybody!

Dude, you were never "officially" in the cone.
96L is certainly acquiring that 'Look' - it should not be long before designation as TD 13 occurs. Already it seems to be rather potent. Hopefully that OTS movement begins to take effect sooner than later. I would hate to see such a potentially menacing true Cape Verde System ramp-up towards the Lesser Antilles islands in September.

Karl also certainly bears watching as its broad circulation nears the islands -especially the Leewards. Its circulation and Vort are extensive albeit a little weaker, but as aforesaid which is unfortunately typical for tropical systems approaching the islands -irrespective of shear & SAL/ dusty, dry air- 'The Lesser Antilles Rule' should begin to take effect by 55W. That being said the Leewards are likely to at least get brushed by Karl along with some surf...Hopefully Nothing much worse that that should materialize.

Keep safe this season Everyone!
God Bless!
Td 13 should be coming later today or tonight if current trends continues.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON SEP 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Karl, located well east of the Leeward Islands.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a large but
well-defined low pressure system located southwest of the Cabo Verde
Islands is beginning to show signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development over the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form
later today or on Tuesday before large-scale conditions become less
favorable. Occasional heavy rains and gusty winds associated with
this system should diminish later today over the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Stewart
Quoting 199. Wunderwood:


Dude, you were never "officially" in the cone.


Dude
You better get a handle on your geography or your mind or something
...The new track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one through 48
hours, with more emphasis put on the weaker GFS solution. The track
forecast from days 3-5 has been adjusted to the east of the previous
one, and is consistent with the expectation of stronger cyclone as
depicted in the ECWMF solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.2N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
24H 20/0600Z 19.1N 52.1W 40 KT 45 MPH TS
36H 20/1800Z 19.9N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH TS....

-This point from the public advisory (TWO/TWD) has a 'bad -dejavu' ring to it...Time will tell. Hopefully any impacts will likely not be too bad bearing in mind a strengthening system in light of the 'Lesser Antilles Rule'...
is that near the Antilles in ten days, matthew.
Quoting 203. NatureIsle:

...The new track forecast is nudged to the south of the previous one through 48
hours, with more emphasis put on the weaker GFS solution. The track
forecast from days 3-5 has been adjusted to the east of the previous
one, and is consistent with the expectation of stronger cyclone as
depicted in the ECWMF solution.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 18.2N 47.7W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
12H 19/1800Z 18.6N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH TS
24H 20/0600Z 19.1N 52.1W 40 KT 45 MPH TS
36H 20/1800Z 19.9N 54.6W 45 KT 50 MPH TS....

-This point from the public advisory (TWO/TWD) has a 'bad -dejavu' ring to it...Time will tell. Hopefully any impacts will likely not be too bad bearing in mind a strengthening system in light of the 'Lesser Antilles Rule'...


Exactly I agree it changed again well we will just have to wait and see like I was saying patiently waiting
Quoting 200. NatureIsle:

96L is certainly acquiring that 'Look' - it should not be long before designation as TD 13 occurs. Already it seems to be rather potent. Hopefully that OTS movement begins to take effect sooner than later. I would hate to see such a potentially menacing true Cape Verde System ramp-up towards the Lesser Antilles islands in September.





Quoting 186. Gearsts:

Seems to be moving as forecast imo.
Yes because they change the forecast points every time they do an update. Go back a few days or see the original forecast points, and see how different they are.
Quoting 207. NativeSun:

Yes because they change the forecast points every time they do an update. Go back a few days or see the original forecast points, and see how different they are.


Agreed They have changed this forecast so many times each update
209. HTTR
Quoting 154. thetwilightzone:



very rare do we ever see a named storm in December hurricane season is over nov 31st i think we can still get named storms in nov but getting harder and harder and we will have higher wind shear out there OCT is the last moth we get some good size named storms out there after that we start getting in too higher shear and that is when we see things start shuting down for the season

November 31 LOL
As I have stated before El-Nino is becoming likely for 2017/2018. Could be a moderate to strong event as well. This in large part due to a positive PDO cycle that we entered into back in 2014 which as I stated as well would kill off La-Nina from being declared.


Indon haze killed 100,000 in 2015: report
September 19, 20166:49pm, Lauren FarrowAustralian Associated Press
Green groups and health experts have called on the Indonesian government to do more to tackle forest and peatland fires after a study estimated more than 100,000 people died prematurely last year when deadly haze blanketed Southeast Asia.
The report by researchers from Harvard and Columbia universities published in Environmental Research Letters on Monday estimated the haze resulted in 100,300 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore last year - much of which was due to fires in Indonesia's South Sumatra province.
The thick smoke which blanketed the region during September to October was likely the "worst haze episode" since 1997, with a combination of conditions - including El Nino - promoting drought and thus allowing fires to spread out of control, the report states.
Comparing it to a similar event in 2006 - the report states smoke-related mortality was almost three times higher.

An estimated 91,600 people died in Indonesia, while a further 6500 died in Malaysia, and 2200 in Singapore.
While the underlying triggers were similar across the extreme haze events of 2006 and 2015 - the report states global markets for palm oil, pulpwood and timber and increases in small-scale agriculture was "evolving rapidly".
Greenpeace Indonesia forest campaigner Yuyun Indradi said it highlighted the need for the government to stop forest clearing and peatland drainage for plantations. ...
Watching Karl carefully - Bermuda's a small target that none-the-less gets hit often. Was hoping to see Karl strengthen earlier and turn sooner but doesn't seem to be the case now and a shallow storm always creeps further west. SST's and atmosphere just south of here is crazy hot and humid - the perfect accelerator. Last year we were surprised with two storms in 7 days so who knows? Time to dig out the storm shutters.
The moisture and thunderstorms from ex-Julia brought worse weather to the Jersey Shore than Hermine ever did.
Quoting 211. barbamz:

Indon haze killed 100,000 in 2015: report
September 19, 20166:49pm, Lauren FarrowAustralian Associated Press
Green groups and health experts have called on the Indonesian government to do more to tackle forest and peatland fires after a study estimated more than 100,000 people died prematurely last year when deadly haze blanketed Southeast Asia.
The report by researchers from Harvard and Columbia universities published in Environmental Research Letters on Monday estimated the haze resulted in 100,300 excess deaths across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore last year - much of which was due to fires in Indonesia's South Sumatra province.
The thick smoke which blanketed the region during September to October was likely the "worst haze episode" since 1997, with a combination of conditions - including El Nino - promoting drought and thus allowing fires to spread out of control, the report states.
Comparing it to a similar event in 2006 - the report states smoke-related mortality was almost three times higher.

An estimated 91,600 people died in Indonesia, while a further 6500 died in Malaysia, and 2200 in Singapore.
While the underlying triggers were similar across the extreme haze events of 2006 and 2015 - the report states global markets for palm oil, pulpwood and timber and increases in small-scale agriculture was "evolving rapidly".
Greenpeace Indonesia forest campaigner Yuyun Indradi said it highlighted the need for the government to stop forest clearing and peatland drainage for plantations. ...



The possibility of a growing El-Nino in 2017 could have a major impact of Pacific Marine life as well as the coral reefs near South America.
NHC has more confidence that Karl takes the first escape route. Cool beans.
Well defined closed circulation with 96L
Good Morning; the global tropics today and a very bone dry environment on the Atlantic side of things including closer to home in the Caribbean and Gulf with the exception of the little bubbles of moisture that represent Julia, Karl, and the wave exiting Africa..............Not the most promising conditions (lack of any viable disturbances) for the main traditional peak period areas closer to the Caribbean or Gulf Region (in the Orange sectors). 


September Hurricane Climatology
Combined image of all basins

Up over 10.50" for September here in Wekiva Springs. That's on top of 9" in August.
Picked up 1.44" from and impressive lightning storm around 11pm last night. 3.57" up in Rock Springs according to a PWS.
Lol 96L looks better then Karl could see weak TS out of 96L
vis. the system just wnw of karl looking suspect
Basin wide El-Nino which could be more focused in terms of strength further east compared to the one in 2015/2016.

Can someone tell me if there is also another spin of convection south of 96l that just came off africa
Sitting here entertaining myself watching ex post tropical cyclone Julia encroaching on the ILM weather. Per MY uneducated assessment, it will cross Gulf Stream, which is about 40 miles offshore, within next hour. I love watching these systems. She has a front chasing her from the SW and catching up quickly, but I want to see if the Gulf stream affects her. Meanwhile, watching Karl also. Never underestimate a tropical entity.
Weekly Enso values are still in La Nina mode......this weeks reading for the 3.4 region is -0.6 we now have averaged in the La Nina range for 14 weeks
Right now I see similarities to a Fabian track, but much can and will change in the upcoming days. Hopefully Karl just brings us more groundswell and nothing else.

Edit. lol sorry I did not mean to plus my own post. Ha.

I chased Fabian swell from Buxton, NC lighthouse to Ogunquit, ME with many points in between.



Quoting 212. midatlanticoutpost:

Watching Karl carefully - Bermuda's a small target that none-the-less gets hit often. Was hoping to see Karl strengthen earlier and turn sooner but doesn't seem to be the case now and a shallow storm always creeps further west. SST's and atmosphere just south of here is crazy hot and humid - the perfect accelerator. Last year we were surprised with two storms in 7 days so who knows? Time to dig out the storm shutters.
Quoting 221. islander101010:

vis. the system just wnw of karl looking suspect

Yeah, should be pegged as an invest, starting to wrap up. Question... if this system does turn into a storm, how does that affect the future placement of the two high pressures steering Karl and therefore how does that affect the future path of Karl??? I don't think this was factored into the models.
Julia


A little piece of Paine is drifting up our way(SoCal), low rain chance 15% overnight.
Quoting 223. waccamaw33:

Can someone tell me if there is also another spin of convection south of 96l that just came off africa
LinkIt doesn't look like it.
Meanwhile very close to Japan........


Karl gaining a little more convection this morning, looking better.
The killer hurricane of 1947: See historical photos



Hurricanes didn't start getting names in the United States until 1953, so the big storm of 1947 doesn't have an iconic name to recall. At one point a Category 5 storm, it killed at least 51 people on its path through the Bahamas, Florida, New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.

By the time it roared into the New Orleans area on September 19, 1947, it was a Category 1 or 2 storm, depending upon which account you read, with winds of around 100 miles an hour. The biggest local damage was in Metairie where backwash from Lake Pontchartrain overtopped levees, took out the Bucktown bridge and dumped floodwaters as deep as seven feet from the lake to Metairie Road.

Some of that water took weeks to drain out, affecting about 5,000 homes. The hurricane killed 31 people in the metro area and caused about $110 million in damage. Here are some photos from our archives that show the aftermath of this storm.
The thick smoke which blanketed the region during September to October was likely the "worst haze episode" since 1997, with a combination of conditions - including El Nino - promoting drought and thus allowing fires to spread out of control, the report states.
Comparing it to a similar event in 2006 - the report states smoke-related mortality was almost three times higher.


Today’s pass over central Russia is truly shocking ,

Terra/MODIS
2016/263
09/19/2016
04:30 UTC


Quoting 236. pingon:

Meanwhile very close to Japan........

Going to be a sleepless night for many. Daylight is good for storm chasers and for monitoring, but having a strong system overhead through the night must be a frightening thing. That center location is a prime spot to send surge into the Kagoshima Bay. A million people live on the shores of that inlet.
Here's the latest RAMMB showing the entire country covered in Malakas shear:
Today’s pass over central Russia is truly shocking ,

Aqua/MODIS
2016/263
09/19/2016
06:20 UTC


Quoting 210. StormTrackerScott:

As I have stated before El-Nino is becoming likely for 2017/2018. Could be a moderate to strong event as well. This in large part due to a positive PDO cycle that we entered into back in 2014 which as I stated as well would kill off La-Nina from being declared.




Hi Scott. It certainly appears that you were right.
This home,my father in law built in 47-48',...the wood was on the lot here,and at the height of the 47' storm,he was corralling the wood as it was being floated off by the lake storm surge.

The home here survived Katrina,.....in 2005.
Quoting 202. K8eCane:



Dude
You better get a handle on your geography or your mind or something

If you were referring to your proximity to Julia, I can vaguely see your point. You will receive rain from the remnants but your post made it seem like your area was in imminent danger from one or both of these storms and that just wasn't the case. You didn't have a cat 5 bearing down on you. I know your area quite well having been there numerous times in my life. I also recognize hyperbole when I see it.
Quoting 244. Wunderwood:


If you were referring to your proximity to Julia, I can vaguely see your point. You will receive rain from the remnants but your post made it seem like your area was in imminent danger from one or both of these storms and that just wasn't the case. You didn't have a cat 5 bearing down on you. I know your area quite well having been there numerous times in my life. I also recognize hyperbole when I see it.



Oh please. My post did nothing of the sort. But thats if you actually read it and dont look for something to blow your jaws about. Be gone. Dont have time for you. Watching the tropics.
Quoting 209. HTTR:


November 31 LOL

Yes there is a leap fall this year didnt you know???? Lol :)
96L looking very good:



Should be upgraded to a TD given the latest ASCAT pass.

Karl is really suffering from the dry air. :( But SSTs are now 28C+ and wind shear is continuing to fall. RH will be in the 50%+ range later today which should help a little.

Quoting 202. K8eCane:



Dude
You better get a handle on your geography or your mind or something

I like this new "Dude" thing! I think we should try it out today and incorporate it as much as possible into any comments. Thanks dude!
If this catches on we can use a different term every day! I would like to go ahead and nominate "Bro" for tomorrow,
Quoting 248. Llamaluvr:


I like this new "Dude" thing! I think we should try it out today and incorporate it as much as possible into any comments. Thanks dude!
If this catches on we can use a different term every day! I would like to go ahead and nominate "Bro" for tomorrow,


I dont usually use "dude" but I was responding to him the way he responded to me, which was "dude". For the record I'm also female lol
Quoting 232. PedleyCA:


A little piece of Paine is drifting up our way(SoCal), low rain chance 15% overnight.

I mean the 1939 Long Beach Tropical Storm must happen again eventually.
Update From K8eCane

Im going to continue with one of my hobbies now, which is watching the tropics and reading great posts such as the one Pat just posted. Some people cant really take it if they know that someone else is enjoying something.
I had mentioned earlier that i was watching Julia as she gets absorbed by this front thats chasing her. The dynamics are mesmerizing ( sorry if that bothers some) . I am having more and more difficulty making out what was Julia and what is the front LOL. But hey ,I LOVE my hobby.
Quoting 249. K8eCane:



I dont usually use "dude" but I was responding to him the way he responded to me, which was "dude". For the record I'm also female lol


Ok, I did not pay close attention to your username. Sorry about that, but I have heard even females being referenced as dude. So you are either Katy or Katie?
Quoting 216. HurricaneFan:

Well defined closed circulation with 96L

this one looks better to me than Karl!
255. JRRP
The MDR is dry and ......
Quoting 255. JRRP:




LemiT will like. SLU could like (still south of St Lucia). But I may not like :\ Unless it's moving NNW lol
Quoting 223. waccamaw33:

Can someone tell me if there is also another spin of convection south of 96l that just came off africa
was thinking the same thing but I don't know the answer to your question
If the future storm moves NW\NNW all E and NE Caribbean wishcasters will be happy :))
Quoting 222. StormTrackerScott:

Basin wide El-Nino which could be more focused in terms of strength further east compared to the one in 2015/2016.


Has it done this before? Meaning back to back strong El Nino's?
Quoting 253. Wunderwood:



Ok, I did not pay close attention to your username. Sorry about that, but I have heard even females being referenced as dude. So you are either Katy or Katie?
OK, I know this is straightened out, but are we still good with using "Bro" tomorrow?
Quoting 260. Loduck:

Has it done this before? Meaning back to back strong El Nino's?


Anyways strong El Nino or not, the Atlantic won't change. Still dry air and shear even in cool neutral...







#255 could be matthew....






6z GEFS shows that perfect and exciting NNW track xD
Quoting 232. PedleyCA:


A little piece of Paine is drifting up our way(SoCal), low rain chance 15% overnight.
But it looks like a lot more could be coming and I know that you guys really need it
GEFS moves the storm across the Windwards\Leewards\Virgin Islands....
Quoting 254. Loduck:

this one looks better to me than Karl!

Yeah, convection is becoming more organized and deeper. Will probably be classified as TD 13 at 5PM if it continues to improve in organization.
yes system south of 96l maybe matthew. down the road....
96L



At 1200 UTC, 19 September 2016, LOW INVEST (AL96) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.2N and 27W. The current intensity was 30 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb.




Japanese radar with landfalling Malakas at the southern tip of Kyushu and torrential rains.
Source for updates.
Quoting 246. hurricaneryan87:


Yes there is a leap fall this year didnt you know???? Lol :)
You know, I'm pretty sure quite a few noticed that....but chose not to point it out. Don't make a big deal out of it because it really doesn't matter
273. bwi
Best animation I've seen yet -- the 2016 Arctic sea ice melting season

https://uhh.de/cen-arctic-sea-ice-16
HWRF model from this morning has Karl intensifying rapidly after 60W into a monster.

Quoting 265. K8eCane:














It lives!!!


Karl



At 1200 UTC, 19 September 2016, TROPICAL STORM KARL (AL12) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 18.3°N and 47.7°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 10 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.



Indeed, Tropical systems are never to be underestimated... Should Karl persist in moving more westerly and its southern Quadrant decides to fill up more substantially, it could turn out to be more than a little surprise especially for the more Northerly Lesser Antilles islands.
Also, 96L looks very well organised at the moment and appears like it may choose to go straight to Tropical storm Intensity -here comes Lisa...

Blessings!
Quoting 262. CaribBoy:



Anyways strong El Nino or not, the Atlantic won't change. Still dry air and shear even in cool neutral...
yea, unfortunately I think that you are probably right. I'm really hoping that the issues (sal and dry air) with the Atlantic aren't a permanent feature maybe due to climate change and the "old" Atlantic will return sooner than later
I think what is left of Julia has about had it.
Quoting 248. Llamaluvr:


I like this new "Dude" thing! I think we should try it out today and incorporate it as much as possible into any comments. Thanks dude!
If this catches on we can use a different term every day! I would like to go ahead and nominate "Bro" for tomorrow,


Sir or ma'am, still works for me. :)
Quoting 266. Loduck:

But it looks like a lot more could be coming and I know that you guys really need it

They are not forecasting any JOY from this, max 15%, but you never know...
Quoting 280. Grothar:



Sir or ma'am, still works for me. :)

What is up Sensei?
Quoting 280. Grothar:



Sir or ma'am, still works for me. :)
Yes sir, it does
Testing to see if my post is mysteriously elongated
Quoting 281. Patrap:





Ugh! Hate seeing all that dry air coming at us.
Been beastly here this week, 98 or so over the last couple of day and today isnt going to be much better.
Looks like a cool down and some possible rain this coming weekend
12z GFS keeps Karl very weak through 4 days but still turns it north.
Got the impression blog is quick this morning/today. Any freezes yet? Fingers crossed!

Quoting 185. geraud1987:

Hi good morning everyone. Am here reporting from Northern leeward islands St.maarten.It's now 5 am and tropical storm Karl has not made the west north west turn like what the nhc model and the rest models forecasting. In fact just took a look at this on the live floater it seems to be jogging to the southwest again at 15 mph. I have notice every forecasted position where Karl was forecasted to be at a certain time frame it end up being different. Well we are here patiently waiting to know for sure if we are in the all clear.


Sounds eerily like the experience viewing Jouaquin from Long Island Bahamas last year.

It will turn
It will turn
It will turn

Won't it??
Quoting 248. Llamaluvr:


I like this new "Dude" thing! I think we should try it out today and incorporate it as much as possible into any comments. Thanks dude!
If this catches on we can use a different term every day! I would like to go ahead and nominate "Bro" for tomorrow,
I'll second the nomination and nominate "Dog " for Wednesday and " Homey" for Thursday and "Skillet" for Friday.
Quoting 260. Loduck:

Has it done this before? Meaning back to back strong El Nino's?
Sure looks like that will be a bust, as the SOI is positive and expected to stay positive, in fact it is suppose to strengthen thru the fall and winter.
Quoting 284. PedleyCA:


What is up Sensei?


Hey, Peds. Any rain for you yet? We're just watching boring systems again. The only good thing is that they are all hopefully staying away from land.
Quoting 282. Patrap:




Gulf Coast force field: Activated.
Quoting 289. barbamz:

Got the impression blog is quick this morning. Any freezes yet? Fingers crossed!




When you have tomato plants and are still enjoying the fruits "freezes" esp at this time of year means something else.

No prospect of such in the Mid Atlantic for the foreseeable future, climatology here is Mid October to early November.
Quoting 267. CaribBoy:

GEFS moves the storm across the Windwards\Leewards\Virgin Islands....
What storm is that?
Quoting 293. Grothar:



Hey, Peds. Any rain for you yet? We're just watching boring systems again. The only good thing is that they are all hopefully staying away from land.


Nope, nothing since 5/7/2016 and nothing promising in the forecast. It is just a matter of time.
The former Biscay system still got a beautiful spin, now recharging over the bathtub that is the Adriatic sea.

These "Genoa lows" or "V-track cyclones" may spell a lot of trouble for central Europe when moving N towards Poland ...
Source: 999Ai2016's blog.
Quoting 297. PedleyCA:



Nope, nothing since 5/7/2016 and nothing promising in the forecast. It is just a matter of time.


May?? I'll try and move these a little closer to you.

8N 22W this could be Mathew. In a very low latitude position. could be the September storm.
Quoting 295. georgevandenberghe:


When you have tomato plants and are still enjoying the fruits "freezes" esp at this time of year means something else.
No prospect of such in the Mid Atlantic for the foreseeable future, climatology here is Mid October to early November.


From earlier: Frozen blog/ck with some of CaribBoy's fishes :-)


May it not happen again!
Quoting 299. Grothar:



May?? I'll try and move these a little closer to you.



Some of that LBAR would do the trick...lol
Karl looks to be clothing himself again with a new convective burst near the center.
Typhoon Malakas makes landfall in Kagoshima
36 min ago
A powerful typhoon has made landfall on Japan's southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima.
Officials with the Meteorological Agency say Typhoon Malakas hit near Osumi Peninsula in the prefecture's south shortly after midnight on Tuesday.
The storm has an atmospheric pressure of 945 hectopascals at its center. It is forecast to continue heading east along the Pacific coast of Japan's main island.
In Makurazaki City in Kagoshima Prefecture, officials recorded heavy rainfall of more than 110 millimeters per hour. ...
CaribBoy umbrella party.



Quoting 296. rockcity340:

What storm is that?
QUOTING 296 rockcity340
Quoting 267. CaribBoy:

GEFS moves the storm across the Windwards\Leewards\Virgin Islands....
What storm is that?
area of disturbed weather SSE of Cabo verdes
Quoting 260. Loduck:

Has it done this before? Meaning back to back strong El Nino's?

If that materializes we will get a total arctic meltout as early as next year.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 291. PensacolaDoug:

I'll second the nomination and nominate "Dog " for Wednesday and " Homey" for Thursday and "Skillet" for Friday.

Thanks Doug! I also like "Chief" or "Sport" !
12z GFS :\\
13-12-4-1.

Huh.

September 20.

Huh.