WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Little change to Florence

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:11 PM GMT on September 07, 2006

Florence continues to struggle with 10-15 knots of wind shear today, and doesn't appear any stronger than yesterday. QuikSCAT satellite data from this morning at 5:26am showed only a few patches of 50 mph winds. Compounding Florence's troubles has been the presence of some dry air at mid levels, which Dr. Jason Dunion of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division pointed out in a blog yesterday.

The big questions with Florence are, will she intensify, and how close will she pass to Bermuda? Well, the intensity forecast remains the same, with the upper level low to the west forecast to move off and allow a lower shear environment for Florence to intensify in. The GFDL model intensifies Florence to a strong Category 2 hurricane at her closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. However, Florence has thus far resisted intensification, so a more conservative intensity forecast may be in order.


Figure 1. QuikSCAT satellite winds estimates for Thursday morning, September 8, 2006. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

All the computer models are unanimous in bringing Florence close to Bermuda, then out to sea, missing both the U.S. and Canada (although a sideswipe of Newfoundland is possible). It would be a major surprise if Florence hit the U.S. We can, however, expect plenty of heavy surf and minor beach erosion along the East Coast next week if Florence does intensify into a Category 2 hurricane. Bermuda is a small target in a big ocean, and I expect that island will escape a direct hit from Florence. Florence is a very large storm, though, and tropical storm force winds will probably affect the island Sunday through Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Florence Friday afternoon.

Florence strangles her little brother
Tropical disturbance 91L, about 800 miles east-southeast of Florence, is no longer a threat to develop. The disturbance's close proximity to its big sister has proved too much for the disturbance, which now has very little spin and just a few thunderstorms. There is a small chance 91L could separate from Florence on Sunday and make a comeback, just northeast of the northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands.

Carolinas disturbances
A stalled cold front off the Carolina coast spawned a low-pressure area yesterday that moved quickly northeast and is now northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. This low is under 30 knots of wind shear and is transitioning into an extratropical storm, and is not a threat to become a tropical storm. This morning's 7:07am EDT QuikSCAT pass (Figure 1) does show one orange 30 knot (34 mph) wind barb, so this low is of tropical depression strength. Another area of low pressure off the South Carolina coast this morning is poised to repeat what yesterday's system did. This area of disturbed weather had winds up to 40-50 mph in some heavy squalls in the QuikSCAT satellite pass at 7:13am EDT today. The system does have some potential to develop into a tropical depression today as it scoots northeast just offshore the North Carolina coast. However, it will probably not have enough time to develop, and will become extratropical by Friday afternoon over the waters to the northeast of Cape Hatteras.

Huge extratropical storm hits Brazil
Perhaps the most damaging storm in the world this September was not Ernesto in the Atlantic, John in Baja, nor Ioke on Wake Island. Brazil had an usually intense wintertime extratropical cyclone bring wind gusts to hurricane force along the coast of Brazil's southernmost state, Rio Grande do Sul, on September 2. Winds of 101 km/h in that state's capital city of Porto Alegre tore roofs of of houses, downed trees and powerlines, and caused power outages to half a million people. Luiz Fernando Nachtigall, Chief Meteorologist for MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center, sent me a link to some damage photos from the event. After the wind event, the storm brought the most widespread snow event in Southern Brazil since 1994. It snowed in 62 cities.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the September 2, 2006 extratropical cyclone that affected Brazil. The storm had a minimum pressure of 980 mb, similar to what one finds in a Category 1 hurricane! Extratropical cyclones that move over warm ocean currents can start to exhibit characteristics of hurricanes, as I described in my February blog, Flying into a record Nor'easter. Extratropical storms of this intensity happen fairly regularly off the Northeast U.S. coast, but are extremely rare along the Brazilian coast. Image credit: MetSul Meteorologia Weather Center.

Next update
I'll have an update this afternoon or Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

ok weather poll, will the center of Florence head east or west of Bermuda or hit it straight on?
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 9:11 PM AST on September 07, 2006.

Honestly, people are arguing about how far it moved in three hours, like its gonna make landfall tonite!..LOL Wait for the 11PM Rand, you will see where it went.


I really don't care where it is. I stated it didn't matter anyway till tomorrow after recon. Who's excited?
I know Florence was foracast to consume 91L but it looks like a system might be forming in Florence's wake- just a humble observation :)
For those who missed it earlier,

Florence is continuing to grow and stregnthening will start soon. Florence may be a threat to Bermuda and Canada. Read more on the 8:30 PM

Hurricane Warning Florence Analysis
savannah
Zephyr - I think what you are seeing is just part of FLO's ridiculously large circulation LOL! Its absolutely huge!
Instead of thik that was a wabble, was that the S-SW shear dropping off.The higher cloud tops are taking some impressive shape on Floater 1 Dvorak, better looking than IR 2.

I think this will be a getting much more organized over night.
Zephyr, you can't make a humble observation in this blog, people will jump your sh!t and tell you you're wishcasting.

I've been keeping track of the coordinates for the last three days, and I have a humble opinion as to it's past and current track, but I just keep it to myself because the experts, or should I say huge egos on this blog will argue they're right til the cows come home.
yes t-numebrs continue to rise now up to 2.8 she is def doing better
By the looks of Flo's speed and the speed of the trough, unless there is an increase with one or the other IMO the official trac by tommorow will shift about 2 degrees to the W when she hits 29N. So, Sunday, 68W-68.5W 29N.
Not enough to make any impact unless you live in the Maritimes.
Not written in stone. Sand, I prefer sand, easier to change.
ihave27windows- :) smart people = large egos (law of human physics)hehe, but hey i'm here reading right ;)
Guys on this WATER VAPOR image you can see the TROF digging into the southeast which will soon begin to have an affect on Florence.



CLICK HERE FOR WATER VAPOR LOOP
neverpanic

i donlt know the exact cordinates i just know she will recurve ne and it will be because the massive trough off the east coast.

be interesting to see how bermuda fairs i have a feeling this one could be rough.
Zephyr, that's not true....the most intelligent people I know are the most humble. it's the ones who HAVE to be right, who feel INADEQUATE, that have the huge egos.
Latest Quikscat about 7:30pm EDT click image for a clearer view.

text
thanks tampa

very nice circulation and very strong looking. tonight will be interesting

see that bright red blob on the east coast of florida on H-23 water vapor post-thats me, lol boy did we just get pounded.
JER
Wow, hey everyone. Good evening.
I cannot believe the size of Florence.. It's amazing. Phew. 405 miles from the center Tropical Storm force winds extend to.. WOW. That is amazing. They say she'll get bigger too. Big surf to the east coast this weekend. That's for sure.
Hey Jeff LOLOLOLOL!!!!!!!
Rand mail
1538. GoofOff
Randewl -- Get your umbrella ready. It getting pretty noisy out there in our neck of the woods.
So I am new here posting but have been reading this site for hours every day since we got caught off guard by Ernesto. Very good reading on Florence. She scares me even though it's only a 10 percent chance of it hitting the East Coast. Ernesto battered us bad!
Welcome 83 :) All the east coast is gonna get from Flo is some high surf, nothing to worry about. Should be fun actually!
GoofOff...I hear it. Looks like it might go around me again.
lefty,
The trough looks to me to be moving to the E NE at about 2-1 the speed of Flo. Not exact science I know. But you are right, Burmuda will probable feel the crunch. Along with the Maritimes.
Guys i expect Florence to be close to hurricane strength in the morning hours if the current organization trend continues.
KissMyGrits - What is up with you?!
what is WUBA?!
I felt that pounding too Jer...
Atmosweather...thanks I am intrigued by the comments. I'm actually Chesapeake Bay side so I don't think we will see the surf. I just know Ernesto combined with the high pressure system we had happened way too quick, we were not prepared for all the damage. Just like Isabelle 3 years ago but less warning and preparation.
i never think of gender in here but sometimes i get suprised
Posted By: TampaCat5 at 8:43 PM CDT on September 07, 2006.

what is WUBA?!


Weather Underground Bloggers Anonymous
The higher cloud tops are really working up up and out with a lot of cemetre. Think Florence may have found some warmer SST's along with loss of SLY shear
Yep 83 the pressure gradient caught people by surprise.
My name is Henry and I'm a blogger.
Yeah Sky-but fortunately it's moved on out of here now
JER
Right now convection is exploding right over the LLC.

IR image of convection exploding near the center.


Oh is that like Alcoholics Anonymous? lol
Flo is certainly looking better then earlier today. If the COC is under that burst I think she is well on her way. Only problem with Flo is that it's been to hard to really pin her down.
Mabye by tommorow I'll have to start addressing her as Miss Florence. Show a little respect after all the catcalls. :)
Posted By: atmosweather at 9:48 PM AST on September 07, 2006.

KMG - for you I recommend a heavy dose of Lunesta.

LOL! Just report him. Been doing this the past few days. The more reports..the faster he'll be history!
Florence could become a strong tropical storm 60+mph by 11am on Friday if this continues:

Step One, We admited that we were powerless over Blogging and that our lives had become unmanageble.
Rand check yahoo and hope for the best.lol
OK my post vanished... what is the white area in the center on the wv loop?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
I think that's the center.
iamcanadian - the white area is just an area with very high moisture content; in this case, very deep and intense convection.
1574. ebzz
Possibly an eye forming canadian.
Diurnal Maximum.
KissMyGrits sounds familiar...
KMG - I'm administering you a strong dose of SPAM!!!
Hey all back from work whats the latest, flo still going fishing?
sandcrab39565...Nothing in the mail yet.
the winds could be 60 to 70mph right now and if this keeps on it could be a hurricane at 5am
1581. ebzz
Yes Clear, I highly doubt it'll hit land now unless the high moves it more west.
Canadian- It's an extremely COLD cloud top. -80 Celsius at least.
If you look at the color scale at the bottom, you can see white is off the scale (it goes up to dark blue, then nothing).
Here's another view of the convection exploding over the LLC.



Posted By: ebzz at 1:54 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Possibly an eye forming canadian.


Lets not call it an eye untill we're sure... Its only a TS...
Cool ty it appears to me this hurricane season is dead and im not complaining
Rand I was affraid of that you have to save it to a file go to another site attach it and well I tried.lol
sandcrab39565..Sorry...thanks anyway. How bout faxing something tomorrow?
who in here is a girl....just curious
Rand will do update am tommorrow by the other means.
hmmmmm my post seems to be missing. Repeats:

I think the 11 p.m. advisory will show a 2-3 mb drop and no increase in winds (less sure about that) I also think the pressure will fall slowly but steadily all day tomorrow, but it will not become a hurricane until Saturday. It is so big! If it stays the same size, the pressure may have to fall below 980 before hurricane winds begin. Of course if it shrinks and consolidates, hurricane winds may start sooner.

sandcrab39565...Great! I'll catch up with you in the morning.
Here is an IR of Florence; the yellow is cloud tops -80 C or colder.

TS Florence:

1596. louastu
I'm not. I know Taz isn't. I am 100% sure that Randrewl isn't
can we please drop anything gender- this isn't an- I wanna get lucky blog- thanks
Nope....I'm a guy!
What is SST under COC?
Also, the Economist www.economist.com is having a special issue about global warming next week; the issue is online now.
ClearH20- This season is by no means dead. I got news for ya'. We still haven't reached the "Official" peak. Yeah.. But we'll see a few storms. The El Nino like conditions thankfully pointed out by Dr. Gray and brought to my full attention by Zaphod won't allow a Major Hurricane to Landfall this season, MOST LIKELY. It could still happen, later this month, and during October, but for the most part.. Alberto and Ernesto will probably be the only U.S. landfalling storms this season. We'll see, things change. It depends.
Rand I will forward after 7am cdt tommorrow
Fl30258713 - SST map here.
Sea Surface Temperature under the Center of Circulation!

SST...COC.
all this time i thought rand was a male. it all makes sense now! the outbursts, quick exits... the moodiness. man, how could i have missed that? i think there needs to be a gender marker on here!
about 80degrees F....
That's fine Crab...thanks again.
1608. louastu
You forgot Beryl. She hit Nantucket Island.
its not an issue of trying to get lucky..I was just curious as to who the girls and the guys are
1610. PBG00
hey..what an interesting conversation going on in here!
It all started with KMG calling all the guys girls. And ricstevenson I am a man!
Magic I hope you are rite I could use the break.lol
SSTs are about 82-84 F, increasing to 84-86 F by tomorrow (notice the red spot in its forecast path).
Guys here is a close up WINDSWATH for Florence nearing Bermuda...




Tropics are boring as a chitty twister...
Posted By: sandcrab39565 at 10:09 PM AST on September 07, 2006.

KMG + Desert Eagle 50 cal = more grits.lol

Little tiny grits!
It would not surprise me at all if bermuda gets a brush or hit from florence as a CAT3.
MichaelSTL,how far below surface does that map include?
KMG is the New ST... Except Shes not Intelligent...
Have a good night everyone
Posts keep disappearingggggggg.....

I think that's the center.

Do you mean an eye?
1623. PBG00
Why don't we just call kmg Flo..isn't that the name of the waitress on Mels diner who said that all the time??Does anyone else remember that show?(showing my age here)
That is a SST map, so it only shows surface temperatures (I know of maps for the Gulf that show temperature vs depth, but not for other areas).
Probably not an eye canadian, but that's where the intense convection is developing, right over the center.
i think i need to go now. i have a girlfriend to call before i go to bed... and the gender twists on here are really confusing! who is a guy that talks and reacts like a fem... and who is a fem that expresses things like a guy would? i know one thing.... i'd listen, react and think differently to each person if i knew the difference
1628. GoofOff
It looks like that dry air and dust southwest of Florence are about the only thing that has kept it from really cranking up.
I was curious to know if there had been an increase over Florence's path in SST's to account for what looks to be increasing to becoming eventual outflow.
Thanks for link
Rand KMG really pressed my button last nite and I still am sorry about my reaction. I lost my composure will not happen again.
ricstevenson...agreed 100%
1633. GoofOff
ric, why should that make any difference?
sandcrab39565...Guess I had already signed off. Missed that one! Believe me...I know my gender and I have been called much worse by better people. Doesn't bother me...just ignore and spam them.
Probably not an eye canadian, but that's where the intense convection is developing, right over the center.

Thanks
KMG- doesn't even offer bad information,just personal attacks. !-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-!-
Evening all.

Posted By: Fl30258713 at 2:15 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.
I was curious to know if there had been an increase over Florence's path in SST's to account for what looks to be increasing to becoming eventual outflow.


Increasing outflow is typically because of decreased wind shear. However, higher SSTs can cause increased convection, also causing increased outflow.

Prob. what we're seeing is a combination of the two.
1638. PBG00
Been called worse? whats wrong with being called a girl??LOL
The outflow is also enhanced by the fact that Flo is moving closer to the ULH and further away from the ULL.
PBG00...Alright.....Geezuz....ya can't say anything on here anymore! lol.
LOL the spam button is gone all I could do was - him.
atmos-I agree 100%
1643. PBG00
Can't you ! him?
So the air around Florence is dropping and making it easier for coc air to rise?
1645. louastu
Nothing's wrong with being called a girl.......... if you're a girl. Kind of awkward if you are a guy and you are being called a girl though.
I just noticed the modify comment button.
-AWESOME-
1648. PBG00
Off to walk the dogs. G'night.Catch ya all tomorrow.
1649. louastu
The "!" button is the same as spam/obscene/copyright.
1650. will40
Flo is still going through diurnal max also right?
Reviewing Flos past track I have seen drunks walk a straighter line.lol
PBG00...OK...manana.
Thanks for the info on the buttons. I am a AARP member takes a bit to catch up.lol
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

there really seems to be a second vortex to the east??? spawn?
If models are correct BERMUDA is going to get a direct hit from this tropical system.or at least come very very close to it.
700
WTNT31 KNHC 080228
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM AST THU SEP 07 2006

...FLORENCE REMAINS LARGE BUT REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN...

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...810 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE YESTERDAY...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Hanging out in isobars...
UKMET 132
At the present track it shows +- 73 miles west of Bermuda. I know this will change.
That front went stationary just off South Carolina.
...FLORENCE REMAINS LARGE BUT REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN...

That's how it's been looking to me!
PLEASE enough of the mindless chatter. We all know when a useless comment is made. IGNORE IT and move on . If you don't have WEATHER input stay off the blog PLEASE
Does it really matter what gender people are???
(Here is the 11:00 Discussion on FLORENCE)


WTNT41 KNHC 080229
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
1100 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2006

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
USING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING
THE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 21.3N 56.1W 45 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 22.3N 58.0W 50 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 23.7N 60.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 25.0N 62.5W 65 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 26.5N 64.5W 75 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 30.0N 65.5W 90 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 42.0N 58.0W 90 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
Ts force 405 miles out...Holy S***T!!
1666. Zaphod
Nice convection tonight. I think its time to worry about Bermuda. Yeah, it's a small target, but an awfully big missile!

I think this is the most core convection I've seen this year.
Zap
has avila not seen al the dry air on WV?
After reading the latest report on Florence...I have to reiterate my statement about how this is the year of total unpredictability. I love it that these storms are giving the weather forecasters hell! LOL
1669. louastu
Floyd had tropical storm force winds up to 580 miles from the center. If Florence gets that big, then I will be impressed.
Whom ever committed earlier about Bermuda hit rite the 10pm cdt update nails Bermuda . I still think the trend has been more and more east. Lets hope so for Bermudas sake.
How far did Gilbert's ts winds extend out at it's peak?
Floyd wasn't a 50mph T.S., though :)
1673. wxgssr
Avila...what a Clown. Seems he wrote his forecast and analysis way too early in his shift....makes no mention of the convection coalescing about the core...

Heeelllllooooooooo
1674. Zaphod
TC5,
Avila did mention dry air -- humidity:
THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY
When is the NHC gonna realize that this is the year of storms finding every way possible not to strengthen(polar opposite of last year) and undercut guidance a lil in the intensity forecast!
Although Flo is not that strong in winds can anyone tell me how much surge a storm of this size might push a surge? (in the NE quad)
Posted By: TampaCat5 at 2:37 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.
has avila not seen al the dry air on WV?


LOL;
someone should send him a link
And forecaster Avila is way far from a clown.
Track forcast takes it right over bermuda.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED
WITH AN ELONGATED SHAPELESS CLOUD PATTERN WHICH IS NOT VERY TYPICAL
OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT..CURRENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM SAB
AND TAFB DO NOT SUPPORT WINDS HIGHER THAN 35 KNOTS. HOWEVER...
USING CONTINUITY AND QUIKSCAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE.

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YETINTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALTHOUGH THEY HAVE BEGUN TO
BACK OFF A LITTLE. THE ONLY SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO
INTENSITY CHANGE ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL ARE THE TEMPERATURES
AT THE UPPER LEVELS...AND THE HUMIDITY. HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN....HOWEVER...I AM
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 13 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AND WITHIN WELL-DEFINED STEERING CURRENTS. IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...FLORENCE WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE TRACK MODELS. THIS FORECAST WOULD BRING
THE CYCLONE NEAR BERMUDA IN A LITTLE MORE THAN 3 DAYS.






FLORENCE REMAINS LARGE BUT REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN...
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLORENCE DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.1 WEST OR ABOUT 505
MILES...810 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND
ABOUT 930 MILES...1495 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH FLORENCE HAS NOT STRENGTHENED SINCE YESTERDAY...
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 405 MILES...650 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.3 N...56.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.



ok all the nhc give up and they are starting to be funny dont you
1681. GoofOff
I hope that UKMET proves correct. It shows no other systems in the Atlantic for the next 5 days. After the last 2 years, I'll take as many 5 day forecasts as they want to make like that.
We don't call dry air ~ humidity in south MS. lol
Avila DID mention the convection, adding to his confusion as to why "No Show Flo" isn't strengthening.
isn't storm surge a result more of low pressure than wind speed?
Does anyone else see a possible anticyclone starting to form on top of the convection on visible imagery?
1686. wxgssr
Well, his discussion sure was funny.

Florence has developed core convection for the first time in her existence, and he fails to mention it. What a joke. Bwaaaaaaaahahaha.

Better?
Hell yeah; Avila is GOOD!!! Really one of the best, imo.
Ive actually met Lex Avila....He is in my opinion one of the greatest forcasters in the NHC.
Stormsurge would not really be much of a factor in NE quad. because the water will go around Bermuda.
Hey Stormaddict,

I am sorry I wasn't available in order to respond to your question when posted earlier in Dr. Masters blog. Honestly, I hardly ever visit there anymore, and I would have never seen it had it not been for the thoughtfulness of Louastu, who subsequently posted it in my blog for me.:)

Posted By: louastu at 12:40 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

This comment was posted in Dr. Masters' blog. In case you didn't see it there, I have decided to post it here, so it does not go unanswered.

Posted By: stormaddict at 8:33 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

NCFORECASTER:

Looking at the timeline you listed earlier regarding years when no hurricanes made U.S. landfall - what causes this to occur? Is that what's happening this year? Thanks in advance

First of all, every hurricane season is quite unique just as the same is true of an individual tropical cyclone as well. This is why no one really can offer a fairly accurate forecast more than 5 days ahead of time. Even then, forecast error can be pretty large for even the very best at the NHC, whose average forecast track error at this time frame is roughly 260 miles. That being said, we can still review some of the factors that have been instrumental in preventing hurricanes from making a U.S. landfall during the aforementioned seasons I had alluded to earlier.

1) There are numerous examples of strong tropical storms that made a U.S. landfall during these seasons that simply didn't have enough time to achieve hurricane intensity before reaching our shores like Ernesto in NC less than a week ago. In other instances, these tropical storms were in an unfavorable atmospheric environment that inhibited then from doing so.

2) There are other examples of powerful hurricanes like Michelle in 2001 that was a serious threat to south Fl. that crossed Cuba and dropped from a category 4 to a category two, and just missed striking the U.S. and pounded the Bahamas instead. The same is true of the powerful category 3 Isidore that was expected to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast in September of 2002 and break the 3 year drought of no hurricane landfalls since Irene had hit South Fl. in October 1999, that unexpectedly turned almost due S and drifted into the Northern Yucatan Pennisula, before reemerging back into the Gulf a day and a half later, as a minimal tropical storm. As was the case with Ernesto after striking Cuba less than two weeks ago, Isidore's circulation was so disputed that he could only achieve 60 mph winds before reaching the La. coastline.

3) There are other years like 2000 and 2001 that also saw above normal tropical cyclone activity and each had two very powerful category four hurricanes that could've threatened the Gulf Coast. Instead, these historic hurricanes (Keith and Iris) were steered into Central America by a strong Bermuda High stretching far over the Atlantic at the time.

4) In most cases, tropical cyclones in general don't affect the U.S. coastline because they aren't steered in that direction as most of these storms form during the peak active months of August and September. Consequently, the size and location of the Bermuda High over the Subtropical North Atlantic plays a significant role as to whether these waves off of Africa are able to be steered far enough west to ever become a threat to U.S. shores. The reason we saw so many landfalls in 2004 and 2005 was that the Bermuda High was displaced farther to the WEST than usual and was more intense as well. Therefore, more storms were steered towards the Gulf and the South Fl. Pennisula.

5) In other seasons, the El nino phase of the ENSO cycle plays a very significant role as it inhibits tropical cyclone development throughout the Atlantic Basin (most specifically in the MDR "main development region" where approximately 65% of all storms develop between Africa and Central America during the peak months of August and September as stated previously). During the hurricane inhibiting EL NINO phases of the ENSO cycle, it causes stronger than normal wind shear or upper level westerlies that move WEST to EAST from the Eastern Pacific through the MDR regions of the Atlantic, and shear away any convection (thunderstorm activity) that tries to development with a potential tropical wave moving from WEST to EAST across the Atlantic. This was a very dominate reason that there was yet another 3 year drought (longest on record) between the August landfall of category 3 hurricane Allen of 1980 (extreme S Texas) and August 1983's category 3 hurricane Alicia (Galveston, Tx.).

6) The period from 1970-1994 was one of well below tropical cyclone activity overall cumulative in the Atlantic Basin, corresponding to below normal sea surface temperatures induced by a multidecadal natural climate cycle known as the AMO. This below normal activity meant that there were less available storms and hurricanes to threaten the U.S. during these particular seasons.

7) In relation to 2006, there have been three significant factors (in my own personal opinion) that have had a significant impact on both overall tropical cyclone activity thus far, as well as limited U.S. hurricane landfall threats.

a) First, the Bermuda High has been situated back in its more typical locality, unlike the 2004 and 2005 seasons, and is not nearly as strong. As a result, we are seeing a pattern more reminiscent of the 1995 season which saw lots of troughiness set up along the U.S. East Coast that created a counterclockwise steering current between it and the clockwise flow on the western most periphery of the Bermuda High, thereby steering one storm after another out to sea, just like should be the case with Florence in a few days.

b) Secondly, there has been an abundance of strong upper level lows roaming the Central and Western Atlantic that have inhibited development of this seasons storms by inducing strong upper level wind shear. Moreover, this general pattern is typical of the early phases of a EL NINO cycle that I predicted might transpire by this October in my January early seasonal outlook. I felt this might be the case with such a short La Nina and a drastically shifting change in the water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, which is the reason I had the lowest forecasted tropical cyclone activity (15-19) than anyone else back then when most were calling for 22-26 storms. Consequently, I would expect the conditions to become increasingly less favorable relative to wind shear, as we get into early October which should reduce overall activity.

c) There are are just so many other unforeseen circumstances such as storms like Ernesto, which just as easily could've followed the early forecast track and avoided the mountainous terrain of Haiti and Cuba, and we could've already had a major hurricane landfall. Likewise, we had Alberto weaken from a borderline strong tropical storm/hurricane (70 mph winds) a few hours before weakening to a 50 mph tropical storm at landfall in the shallower waters in the Big Bend area of Fl. Moreover, it is not impossible that the NHC may reclassify Ernesto to category one intensity for the NC landfall since the lowest barometric pressure was measured at the Wilmington airport 25 miles inland (a full hour after landfall) at 985.4 mb. This is 2 mb lower than their current official lowest b.p for the entire storm event.

I want to conclude by stating that we have yet to reach the absolute peak of the hurricane season which is officially September 10th. Therefore, we honestly have another good 40 days or so left of the Cape Verde season. Furthermore, there have been their fair share of later season storms like Lili which hit in early October of 2002, breaking that 3 year drought of zero U.S. landfalls between 1999-2002. Moreover, hurricane Michelle was a very powerful category four threat in October of 2001 (as mentioned previously). There was the October of 1999 landfall of Irene in South Fl. Not too mention, the two strong category three October landfalls in the U.S. of hurricanes Opal in 1996 and Wilma just last season. In short, it's way too early to write this season off just yet, and I personally do fully anticipate that we will have a hurricane landfall this season, if not a major one at that (alot is dependant for me on the developing El Nino and if so, we may not see one this season).

In others words, it's just too early to make that kind of prediction just yet. Simply put, there is still a long ways to go. I hope this was helpful, and that you have a truly blessed night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
HE DID MENTION THE CONVECTION!!!
Wind pushes water. The greater the surface it pushes may effect its height. The true question is the shore of its effected area is it long and shallow or abruptly shear. At any rate the mass of the storm does effect the lenght of the surge.
1693. louastu
Posted By: seminolesfan at 10:44 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

isn't storm surge a result more of low pressure than wind speed?

No. The size of a storm's surge is dictated mostly by how strong the storm's winds are, the overall size of the storm, slope of the ocean floor, and the shape of the coastline. There is a "pressure surge" as well, but this is only a couple of feet above normal (even in very intense storms).

Modified to include "shape of coastline".
ok now the nhc is starting to be funny


...FLORENCE REMAINS LARGE BUT REFUSES TO STRENGTHEN...


thats funny from the 11pm updats for the nhc



her more from the 11pm update

I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED



there being funny with this storm



her more

HAVING SAID THAT...I HAVE
NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING AGAIN.



HOWEVER...I AM
CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST. FLORENCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST


ah now this is the nic part lol there being funny tonight lol
I CANNOT FIND ANY REAL GOOD REASON WHY FLORENCE HAS NOT YET
INTENSIFIED SINCE THE INGREDIENTS COMMONLY USED TO FORECAST
STRENGTHENING ARE PRESENT. THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM...ABOUT 29
DEGREES CELSIUS ACCORDING TO NEARBY BUOYS...THE SHEAR IS LOW...AND
THERE IS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WITH PLENTY OF
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...


could it be xenergy dived with a second vortex to the east instead of the main???

interesting blob forming on the easten side of the main convection mass the side facing the eastern vortex...
Avila is humorous. But he presented a very thorough discussion tonight. He hit all the bases.
If you just sit and stare at the floaters or zooms you can't see the whole picture.
Avilia is a good person as well as forcaster. I have had some training with him and will have more in the up-coming winter. 1st rate person.
1699. Gatorx
Where is Nash today?
Here's the 100m deep ocean temp now, 48hrs & 120hrs.
Correction:

There was the October of 1999 landfall of Irene in South Fl. Not too mention, the two strong category three October landfalls in the U.S. of hurricanes Opal in 1995 and Wilma just last season.
ncforcaster-that was absolutly the best post i've read today. I would like to thank you for your time and knowledge.
Zeph-IVe been noticing that too. I don't know enough about it to really comment but was wondering if it has something to do with old 99l. Maybe one of our resident experts can elaborate.
JER
Good nite all and thanks for the wisdom and knowlege you share I choose not to have GRITS for dinner.
Nothn to see here folks, but an eventual chalk outline of Florence' remains in the N Atlantic...on that note I am off to bed, good nite all.
1707. wxgssr
I guess I'm just amazed at his whole thesis for his forecast..."Florence refuses to strengthen", when the system is the best developed it has been in its entire exhistence, and this development has occured over the last 4-5 hours...which is a major change in overall system presentation.

Posted By: louastu at 2:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Posted By: seminolesfan at 10:44 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

isn't storm surge a result more of low pressure than wind speed?

No. The size of a storm's surge is dictated mostly by how strong the storm's winds are, the overall size of the storm, and the slope of the ocean floor. There is a "pressure surge" as well, but this is only a couple of feet above normal (even in very intense storms).



Unless you work as an adjuster for an insuranse company along the gulf coast. In that case Storm Surge flooding has nothing to do with wind or science in general. (just kiding, couldn't resist)
Here's the page for the ocean hieghts from now through 120 hrs...most interesting.
It's not 99L...that one exited over Central America yesterday...91L has been absorbed by Florence...maybe that is what you are seeing.
1711. Jerrob
Just set this up. Wanted to make sure I did it right. Jerrob
See ya Crab.
1713. Gatorx
Taz-

Isn't nice that mother nature has a few surprises for us mere humans...lol...even the NHC has a sense of humor.
Hey Seminolesfan,

Thank you so much for your very thoughtful and most appreciative post.:) I want to take this opportunity to wish you and everyone else a great rest of the night.:)

Most sincerely,
Tony
Thanks Rand. is that swirl to Flo's east remenants of 91l do you think?
JER
Tropical Storms hate it when you anthropomorphize them.
FL3025, I have to laugh with you only because you guys bring in "exsperts" that claim they can tell the difference and actually convince the courts that they are right when eye witnesses actually saw it fall before the water got there. (sorry I could not resisit it) Have a good evening I just had to say it.
Some Black IR appearing with Florence....Maybe some intensificaton in the over night hours.


Here is a pic Showing some Black IR over the burst of convection over the LLC.


sebastianjer...I can't tell at night. I have lost it. Wait...Navy says it is at: 20.7N...41.8W...yeah, that would probably be what you are seeing.

Very nicely done, ncforcaster!
1721. louastu
Posted By: HIEXPRESS at 11:04 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

Tropical Storms hate it when you anthropomorphize them.

LOL. Then why are you doing it? Only humans are capable of hate. I couldn't resist.
: Gatorx yes they do
i really never saw a death in 91L all day it did seem to jump foward this evening and absorb some tstorms from the main convection (Florence) which seems to have revieved it (at least for now)... is this possible???
1724. Gatorx
Good night everyone...
Actually it was a jab at the insurance folks who claim storm surge damage should not be covered by wind coverage. Without wind, no storm surge. As apposed to rising water from rain only.
Thanks again- Is it possible that approaching trough could pull Flo North and leave 91l behind-or is it more likely to pull them both to the North. Or is there any real way of telling one way or another,lol
JER
zephyr63...NHC is considering 91L as part of Florence now. That's all I can tell you. If something else happens....who knows?
I think the COC is outrunning the convection again. If this persists, the remnants of 91L could eventually outdo Florence.
Here's something I was wondering about earlier...a theoretical question -

Let's say that a storm the size of Florence breaks up and by some weirdo chance, re-forms as two smaller systems. Would one of them keep the name "Florence" and the other be the G name? Would they take one and make it G and the other F? Is there any kind of precedent for an event like this?

Thanks,

32*
sebastianjer...Yeah, Flo could leave it behind...or just totally absorb it which appears to be happening.
1731. louastu
Posted By: Fl30258713 at 11:12 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

Actually it was a jab at the insurance folks who clain storm surge damage should not be covered by wind coverage. Without wind, no storm surge.

I completely agree.
Posted By: louastu at 2:49 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Posted By: seminolesfan at 10:44 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

isn't(edit: wouldn't) storm surge (edit:be) a result more of low pressure than wind speed?

No. The size of a storm's surge is dictated mostly by how strong the storm's winds are, the overall size of the storm, and the slope of the ocean floor. There is a "pressure surge" as well, but this is only a couple of feet above normal (even in very intense storms).


Poor proof reading on my part.
I ment wouldn't, not isn't; and didn't even type the be. Meaning that in a Bermuda landfall there wouldn't be areas for the wind to shove water and pile it up
so the pressure would be the main source of surge.

I shouldn't try to watch football and blog at the same time. LOL

Posted By: CaptainTomato at 2:32 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

PLEASE enough of the mindless chatter. We all know when a useless comment is made. IGNORE IT and move on . If you don't have WEATHER input stay off the blog PLEASE
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
How 'bout No Scott....
91L~ for the navy pic

NHC 8:05pm disscussion.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AT
ONE POINT THIS WAVE WAS WELL-DEFINED AND ORGANIZED WITH A SFC
LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. HOWEVER...THIS ENERGY IS NOW BECOMING
ABSORBED BY THE ABNORMALLY LARGE AND CONTINUOUSLY EXPANDING
CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE CENTERED ABOUT 600-700 NM
TO THE WNW.

There seems to be some lagging circulation around 50 if that's what ya'll are refuring to. The convection is coming along but Florence really needs to tighten up & pull in her many little & bigger vorticies she's got sprawled all over the place, if she wants to be a 'cane.
randrewl- thanks :)
1736. Melagoo
Geeze Saban
Why did he throw it underhand?
Yeah Skye...it will be interesting to see how she looks in the morning. Lot of work yet to do before a hurricane.
I'll see y'all then!
I was thinking about a scenario of Florence getting somewhat close to East Coast with front still there, this one or next, and thinking about the southern flow of Florence's west side apposing north wind on front.

Would this creat a high risk of tornados on west side of Florence if close enough to land?
Actually what I'm more concerned about-other than thhe fins losing-is that if Flo does not develope and absorb 91l. Flo goes away to the great north, but there sits 91l-ready to carry on,
JER
Goodnight ya'll
Melagoo-QB coach should help him out; work on some better technique. LOL
well i cannot explain what is going on, but it is very interesting- maybe when they get out there tomorrow =]
I've been thinking about that front interaction. The ULL is plowing infront & would be slinging warm front air into Florence. If she holds together I think we could defiantly see some strengthing in Florence as the ULL runs into the front.
I see that possibility Jer. The models have been playing different versions of it all week. Almost never have they gave 91L any scary intensity though.
1748. Zaphod
2006 - the season for UGLY storms.

It's really hard to see how the string behind Flo/91L will behave.

Any idea how long it will take for a big storm like Flo to eat all the dry air?
Zap
Yes Sky-I noticed that before but wasn't really concerned with 91l. But if the conditions are favorable for developement of Flo,wouldn't they be favorable for a orphan 91L. Anyway the Fins just lost so it doesn't really matter lol
JER
1751. Melagoo
Flo is a strange storm where is the eye or is there one?
1752. Melagoo
Jello
1753. louastu
Florence is only a 50 mph tropical storm right now. Most storms don't form an "eye" until they are near (and often above) hurricane strength.
1754. dees006
"Unless you work as an adjuster for an insuranse company along the gulf coast. In that case Storm Surge flooding has nothing to do with wind or science in general. (just kiding, couldn't resist)"


Fl30258713, Your policy does not cover RISING water regardless of cause (unless it is confined to your property and is less than 1/4 of an acre). Problem with angry home owners is that we dont bother to read our policies even though these policies cost us thousands. We will never learn.
1755. GoofOff
Don't expect to see an eye until completly closed circulation, better rotation and lower pressure, but am sure plenty of people will see one long before i do.
1756. Melagoo
Looks like one may develop very soon though
I no longer think Florence will reach Cat 3. I am very curious as to what Florence will be like by Sunday.
Well Marlins lost, Fins lost and I ahave to work tommorow, boy what a bummer, lol. Chances are good that Flo will still be on my computer in the morning so nite all
JER
1759. louastu
Posted By: GoofOff at 11:41 PM EDT on September 07, 2006.

Don't expect to see an eye until completly closed circulation, better rotation and lower pressure, but am sure plenty of people will see one long before i do.

The system has a closed circulation. Without a closed circulation, this would not even be a depression.
1761. Melagoo
it looks more organized in the latest images
skypeony, regarding your ocean heights link--sea level here has been about 1 to 1.5 feet above forecast tide levels, and has caused some minor coastal flooding with the full moon tides.
1763. GoofOff
Night all, happy dreams of swirls and blobs. Just keep them off the east coast of Florida.
1764. IADCW
Hate to do this - but Flood as defined in insurance policy is water that travels over land. If it rains hard enuf for water to build up on your property and enter from the ground. Its a flood. Homeowners doesnt cover flood.
1765. louastu
Florence is a fat lady. Still not singing though (which is good).
Guys Florence is still holding her own but showing no signs of further intensification.Not signs of improveing banding features at the present time.I'm still expecting some steady strengthing with this system in the next 2-3 as it makes a heading in general direction of bermuda.
1767. dees006
hate to do this but I have worked flood policies for 17 years. flood is defined as "rising water that occurs over two property lines or 1/4 of an acre on a single property" and this is completely removed of the origin. The only key word is "rising" and the parameters of area in which that is was previously defined. This has been held up in every court in every coastal county since the Feds offered flood insurance. My advice is to buy the policy if you live in the area. But I understand the confusion after all you are the weather guy, I simply explain to you the parameters of the contracts that you and I purchase for our homes under these named perils.
1768. augur
Florence will likely pull her arms in now and begin to spin faster.
nite Jer~ the Nogaps which has wanted 91L to make it has an ULL infront of it earlier on after the break away, shear is forcasted low...not sure about the inhibiting factors, if it survives being around Florence.
1770. wxgssr
St Simons...last night I posted that we would all be amazed at what Florence looks like in 48 hours...

I think we will all be amazed at what she looks like in 24 hours...

I do not rule out Cat 3....yet.

The last few hours on the WV floater...very interesting. The presentation has improved markedly. It looks to me like 2 feeder bands have developed about the core and you can see their signature in the cloud top temps in the CDO.
I have little sympathy for people suing for flood coverage when they hadn't bought it. We have been paying for flood insurance since 1993. If you didn't purchase and pay for flood insurance, fine, but don't whine when you get flooded!
GA Guy~ You should probibly see it in 2-D then... the 3-D didn't do justice to GA, which looks to have about the highest 120hr sea height forecast, along the eastern seaboard.
1773. dees006
I would like to say that this blog has some of the most intelligent weather related discussions I have ever seen. The possible alternatives to the forecast route are not only fascinating but they make sense and are backed up with a scientific reasoning. All of you do a bang up job. Keep it up.
wxgssr, I am not sure about no cat 3 at all. But Florence is still very asymmetrical, and it will have to become more symmetrical and a lot more organized. I do think pressures typical of a Cat 3 will happen, but it will be a huge storm, with a 60 mile wide eye, maybe an annular hurricane. My guess is 85 kts 954 mb. That is all it is, a guess though.
awesome link skypeony! Well it is midnight and bedtime for me, we switched to a new software system this week and work has been insane......
luckily, in 120 hours the full moon tides will be gone and the astronomical tides will be about 2 feet lower than they are today.
is the fujiwara effect subject to the Coriolis effect or in other words- will two cyclones orbit each other clockwise or counter in the N. Hemisphere???
1779. louastu
Hey everyone,

I am off for tonight. I hope you all have a great night.
is it just me or does anyone else get the feeling that this Abnormal Flo is going to be a huge hurricane ?

Not only that, but compare to hazard insurance, flood insurance is not that expensive at all!

I pay $289 and live in a flood zone.
1782. wxgssr
Makes sense St Simons...

I will be surprised if Florence does not really ramp up tomorrow.

Hasta Manana
1784. MZT
I have seen storms reach hurricane strength in the relatively far north Atlantic before (36-38 degrees latitude) when the season it at peak, such as now. So I think there could be several days left to Flo's story.
1785. wxgssr
I think it will be a huge Hurricane.
night y'all!
1788. dees006
Sunrise,
Im with you, I pay less than that and its worth every penny. Also NFIP pays VERY liberally (about 1.5 times the actual repair costs) and 3 to 4 times faster than our H/O policies. Its a no brainer. On the other side some people honestly dont know better and I truly feel bad for them.
On another note, I have seen a couple of posts suggesting this storm splits into two storms. I am not a meteoroligist and know very little about actual storm formation so forgive me if this is a stupid question, but is it possible for this to happen? Just a question for those pros out there from a newbie. Thanks.
NITE ALL,
Anything too that small flare up between s. america and africa?
looks like florence is eating the vortex to it's east- the one that in IMHO was sucking energy all day and kept it from growing like forcast by the NHC - its about to really grow into a larger storm and follow the NW Elongation of its outflow
Flo is gonna be a large one,lets hope she doesnt get too angry!
Randrewl- good call on that absorption :)
Here's Extratropical Ioke slamming into Alaska:
Link
Do we need to look towards the carribean for the rest of the season or will the trend for african waves continue?
But then you have people like my parents, who had inquired about flood coverage and were told that we did not live in a flood zone and did not need flood coverage. Also, how does the Gulf of Mexico flood. Storm surge is caused by the bulge of the water due to the low pressure of the HURRICANE as well as the wind of the HURRICANE pushing the water. If has nothing to do with RAIN.
Sprocketeer- what storm! still going- amazing
For the SE surfers...



I've added a more detailed wave forecast graphic to my blog for those on the east-central coast of FL. Click on my name to get there.
sorry typo

Sprocketeer- what A storm! still going- amazing
1799. Zaphod
What is the source of the convection at 10N 35-40W?

Are there any models for 91L anymore?
Zap
Do hurricaines split?
I'm not an expert, but sometimes shear, a trough, or land can separate the main circulation from a strong area of convection If it gets far enough away from the other piece, it won't be torn apart by it. It can then develop its own circulation and become a new storm.
These pieces do not carry any circulation with them, because in order to split from the main system, you would at some point have two centers that were so close together that one must tear the other apart. Therefore, one storm does not split into two, but a piece that is left behind may develop.

On the other hand, tropical storms can and do form new centers, and considering the size of this system, I wonder if it might not be possible for a second center to form far enough away from the main circulation that it would be possible that it might not get torn apart.
Thoughts?
1801. dees006
Your community must apply for emergency status and then be moved into the regular flood plan. I feel for your parents but lack of availability does not dictate whether or not the event was or was not flood, just a lack of availability to purchase a policy related to the peril.
You are correct that storm surge is a result of the storm pushing the water forward and up. However, this is RISING water and as I posted earlier the SOURCE of the RISING water is not relevant. Flooding can result from rain accumalation, surge, etc. Our home owner policy exclusion for flood states that it does not cover "rising water". I think you see the recurring phrase here (rising water) and I agree with you that the source is the storm however that is ntt the argument that you pose. You state that surge should be covered. Flood policy covers surge b/c it is "rising water" however H/O policies do not b/c surge is "rising water". If I am correct surge is water that rises and not water that falls as rain. If I am incorrect I will resign my position and my NFIP certification. Grab your H/O policy and flood policy, review the exclustions and parameters and then post a response. You may also want to refer to all suits filed against H/O carriers (also called WYO companies) in coastal areas over the last few decades. I say all this respectfully as I believe that many are misled in not what storm surge is but rather in exactly what types of perils are covered. Storm surge is covered under flood policies and not wind policies. Insure yourself accordingly.
1802. dees006
Caffinehog,
thank you for that post as I find it very interesting. I would find an event like that fascinating. Anyone else with thoughts on this?
1803. Buhdog
Wow....can u say rapid expansionification?
The cmc purposes a split with Florence way down the line.

There hasn't been any spagetti models on 91L in a few days.

nite ya'll

Posted By: Zaphod at 4:58 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

What is the source of the convection at 10N 35-40W?

Are there any models for 91L anymore?
Zap



I believe the convection near 10 N 35-40 west is just part of the ITCZ.

They are not running models anymore for 91L..the last time was at 06-09 at 06Z
Caffinehog- that is an excellent point! but you can have a nearby t-wave that interacts with a large 'cast off' mass of convection and causes an increase in development- although, like you said it would be subject to any nearby cyclone- tomorrow should be interesting :)
Florence is not close to developing a CDO but will probably develope one by tommorow evening as the effects of the ULL currently in the vicinity move away.
( 2:05am Tropical Weather Discussion on TS Florence)


TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE IS CENTERED NEAR 21.3N 56.1W AT 08/0300
UTC MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION HOWEVER FLORENCE
IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND ELONGATED REMAINING A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM. CONVECTION IS NOW MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CENTER WITH
LITTLE OR NO SHEAR. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM
OF LINE 23N54W-21.5N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN
50W-54W AND FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 54W-60W.
There is a weak low near 11.5 and 34.5

Link
that was at 11 her t-numbers shot up in the last 2 hrs. the cenetr is fully covered in convection and a cdo growth has begun

latest t-numbers




on a side note the latest gfs calls for 3 tropical systems in the next 5-7 day period the first that appears ot might want to come form mroe south. just and interesting note
Very good model agreement on Florence moving NE away from the U.S.



Posted By: leftyy420 at 1:52 AM EDT on September 08, 2006.

on a side note the latest gfs calls for 3 tropical systems in the next 5-7 day period the first that appears ot might want to come form mroe south. just and interesting note.

Lefty iam thinking after Florence departs the area strong high pressure is suppose to build across the atlantic.Iam expecting a burst of activity very soon across the atlantic basin.East coast should watch out .
Another interesting note:

In 1998 hurricane Season...the letter A(Alex) developed in
1.Alex-27 Jul
2.Boonie-19 Aug
3.Charley-21 Aug
4.Danielle-24 Aug
5.Earl-31 Aug
6.-Frances 8 Sept

I Put Frances in bold since is the letter "F" as Florence..r the 6th named storm. Almost the same day as Florence!!

The rest of the season was:
7.Georges-Sept 158.Hermine-Sept 17
9.Ivan-Sept 19
10.Jeanne-21 Sept
11.Karl 23 Sept
12.Lisa 5 OCt
13. Mitch 22 OCt
14. Nicole 24 Nov

Except Georges and Mitch..the rest were fish...But Georges and Mitch was enough to caused a lot of damage.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 5:57 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Lefty iam thinking after Florence departs the area strong high pressure is suppose to build across the atlantic.Iam expecting a burst of activity very soon across the atlantic basin.East coast should watch out .



I agree with you. That it's the weather pattern that expect in September...although this year looks like the TUTT has been a factor across the Atlantic.
Folks we still have a long way to go as we are in the heart of the season.its only sept 8.I expect activity to pick in the coming 2-weeks.
(Intensity guidance Takes Florence to a strong CAT2)



Good night guys...Have a wonderful night everyone.be back in the morning.
Morning all. Just here till the young'uns wake up.

I think that at the very least the Eastern tip of Canada is going to get Florence...if no one else does. But my bets are still hedged in that I think it may surprise yet and stay more West than tracks dictate. If only because she is MASSIVE. A storm with a span of close to 600 miles???

I see we in Barbados have a little concern trying to start SE of us. Looks like Flo is far enough away to not suck this in too. (If she does then what more does she want???).

Gotta watch this.

Looks like Flo is pulling together this am..no? Hurricane soon?
Posted By: bajelayman at 9:01 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Morning all. Just here till the young'uns wake up.

I think that at the very least the Eastern tip of Canada is going to get Florence...if no one else does. But my bets are still hedged in that I think it may surprise yet and stay more West than tracks dictate. If only because she is MASSIVE. A storm with a span of close to 600 miles???

I see we in Barbados have a little concern trying to start SE of us. Looks like Flo is far enough away to not suck this in too. (If she does then what more does she want???).

Gotta watch this.

Looks like Flo is pulling together this am..no? Hurricane soon?


Nogaps have a cyclonic system(looks like a TD) near the easterm caribbean in 96 hrs...coming from the area of disturb weather near 11N-40W right now...
1821. ebzz
Caribbean Weather, I think the high pressure is going to shift it west and I don't feel it will be a fish storm.
Yup, looks like its trying to pick up. These things are just popping up out of nowhere...seems to me anyway. The last blob that tried this got sucked in by Flo.

But this looks to be too far away from Flo to be sucked in.
1823. ebzz
Now, I know this is a while from now but anyone else think the thing behind it might not really do anything because the waters are sturred up by flo?
Gone for the day. Enjoy - lets hope Flo stays with the models (though Bermuda/ Eastern Canada will still get it)
1825. BigToe
Good Morning Wunderheads,

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 am AST on September 08, 2006

...Florence shows little change...


the Bermuda Weather Service will likely issue watches or warnings
within the next 24 hours.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 22.1 north...longitude 57.6 west or about 445
miles...720 km...northeast of the northern Leeward Islands and about
830 miles...1340 km...southeast of Bermuda.


Florence is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph...26 km/hr
...And this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.


Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph...85 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Although Florence has not strengthened...conditions appear
favorable for intensification during the next day or two.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 405 miles...650 km
mainly to the north of the center.


Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.


Repeating the 500 am AST position...22.1 N...57.6 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1000 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Mainelli/Beven
Clouds this am in Barbados moving North, so Flo must be still pulling resources from this low down.

Later.

1827. BigToe
Flo is starting to remind me of a lawnmower I used to have....could'nt start the d*** thing. Here we are, 3 days away from the peak of the season, and things are about as quiet as we could possibly hope for. After last year, I think Mother Nature's giving us a break.
Thanks Mom!
1828. fla54
In the 5:00am advisory NOAA said GFS is showing the trough to be under estimated. What do you think this will do to the track in the long term.
Posted By: fla54 at 10:38 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

In the 5:00am advisory NOAA said GFS is showing the trough to be under estimated. What do you think this will do to the track in the long term.


I believe they are trying to said is that The turn toward the north or north-north east for them..si going ot be more than the models are suggesting...for the NHC the trough is stronger than the models are showing
Carribean weather...

Bonnie wasn't a fish storm.
skyepony,
your 4:51:
That wavewatch...is that some type of software, or is there a link for that? I likes dat!

StormW - Go to www.wavewatch.com
Posted By: LemonAromatique at 11:10 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

Carribean weather...

Bonnie wasn't a fish storm.


I know...I talked in general...Bonnie was close from the Antilles and Puerto Rico...I remember it:))
carribbbeanwx
Ivan was not a fish it took out whole condos in alabama and fla. was very bad no power for three weeks on mobile bay for me.
Is it just me or is Flo getting a really good CDO
Good Morning, I have watched without comment for a long time. I think this storm has been nailed by the NHC. I only hope Bermuda gets a glancing blow.
Posted By: onthebay at 11:21 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

carribbbeanwx
Ivan was not a fish it took out whole condos in alabama and fla. was very bad no power for three weeks on mobile bay for me.

Check my post again my friend...1998 hurricane season..not 2004:))
OTB, Ivan left me 3 weeks without power, minus a truck, a fence, and the better part of a roof.

::in Springhill::

wish I were on the bay except when a storm blows up.
1839. ricderr
shh liam...don't you know...you can never praise the NHC....LOL....but you're right..this storm has followed their track....debbie did too by the way....so....question...and maybe you know stormw...cape verde storms...easier to track?..less land mass?...less inhibiting factors?
Morning all. Well, looks like a long wait for recon. They're not flying till early tomorrow morning.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT THU 07 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-100

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE
A. 09/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0106A FLORENCE
C. 09/0330Z
D. 24.2N 62.0W
E. 09/0430Z TO 09/0800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TEAL 39
1841. ricderr
good morning rand.....so...it's friday...time for the rand report yet?
ricderr...LOL...not just yet. I still have the whole day if I need it. This storm is still ragged looking.
1843. ricderr
ahem........so..your forecast date of a forecast is off?.....oh the controversy we can cause with this....
ric....check the surface chart. Looks like that trough is just stalled.
1845. ricderr
WEATHER UNDERGROUND UPDATE #1
Recent reports have just arrived at the WU news desk, that Randrewl may not be making his Friday Florence forecast. Now at this time unconfirmed, but this reporter has heard that Rand spent the early morning hours with 2 women. Could this be the famed 27 Windows and Saddlegait, both of the coconut fame? Stay tuned we will endeavor to bring you more throughout the day.
G'morning everyone I see Florence is still just wandering around.
ric...LOL!
So THAT'S what he does when he's not here!

For shame for shame:)
1849. ricderr
by the way..the above post...will be replayed at doc masters update.....
ok..i may show just how stupid i am by this...but..isn't one of the big influenses of florences movement that it will travel around the high? so the fact that the trough being stalled only allows it to track closer to the east coast?
Rand, check yahoo tried again.
"Oh my god we might all die. No recon today!" I say let them rest we might go through a period soon where we need them everyday for a couple wks. Anyone else feel the way I do? On the side note Florance is hanging in there but shows no sign of turning into a major hurricane.
Good morning everyone
1853. IKE
Come on randrewl...don't make us wait. Give us your forecast!!!!!!!!!!
ricderr...Don't get carried away...I said it appears that way on paper. I need to check the WV loops.
i feel i need to apologize to a few of my peers for off topic comments i made last night. as we all know, off topic seems acceptable if it's comical or freaky enough... but personal attacks aren't and i take reponsibility for that

sorry
caribbeanwx

Sorry did not notice the dates on your post.

Liam.
love it on the bay except when a strom bl;ows up as you can imagine. had brother who lost whole house with ivan in spanish fort.
1857. IKE
If TWC IS the "hurricane authority"...shouldn't Cantore be lodged on Bermuda by now???

And if so...is there anyone left on the island or did they all evacuate when they saw his shiny bald head?
1858. ricderr
rand..i don't flo will strike land...and i'm not about to get carried away...if it was a blob only....i would for comedy sake...but....hey...we are talking about a hurricane
1859. ricderr
other ric.......first of all...i have no clue what you did...i....had to work til 11 last night..to make up for my playing on here...secondly...thanx for the apology..and with that..i wouldn't let it bother you....none of us...is immune to being an arse once in awhile
Rand did it work?
1861. ricderr
ike...it would be evacuated all but one tourist...27 would be there...
High Pressure, apply directly to the florence.
High Pressure, apply directly to the florence.
High Pressure...
ricstevenson...Yeah, shame on you!
1864. Zaphod
Well, Flo is still an ugly hag, though she has rounded out a bit.

I remain curious about the growing blob at 8N 37W. If this can grow and follow in Flo's wake it could affect islands next week.

Interaction between this blob and the remnants of 91L will be interesting to watch.
Zap
Crab, waiting for a plug-in to Adobe to download.
1866. refill
I see the morning satellite images of Africa. The wave that exit the coast look good. Another good looking one is going to exit. In two days we will be in the peak of the season (9/10) and maybe we are seeing the beginnig of the peak.
A real CDO has finally come together over Florence's true COC, and it's looking like she might be developing an eyewall on Rainbow.
ok all you weather experts...thanks for all the good info. any changes to Flo that might pull her close to the east coast or off the current forecast track?
Good Morning,

I have a complete new update on Tropical Storm Florence:

Tropical Storm Florence Tropical Discussion


Water Vapor Imagery
1870. Patrap
..Good morning to all..Flo still churning in the open Atlantic.Atlantis crew arriving @ 39b for a scheduled 10:31 cst Launch attempt.
Morning y'all!

The last few GFS runs have been trying to develop some of the waves coming off of Africa so we will need to keep an eye on this. It also looks like these waves are going to stay a good bit further S then Florance, but this is long range forecasting so take it with a grain of salt.

Working today and going to the Carolina Georgia game tomorrow, so I will be making myself scarce around here, but will stop in from time to time.

Good to see ya Ric and Rand. Sounds like Rand may have had a good night. Looking forward to the update later Ric...lol

StormJunkie.com-Easily find some of the best weather sites on the web. Including forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info, storm video, and much more.

See ya
1872. ricderr
mornin junk man.......hmmm..who to root for.....go georr......coccccccc....ok..go navy!!!!!
Not too likely Pgirl. Looks like Flo will threaten Bermuda.

Sweet....Modify Comment....I like!
1874. IKE
Looks like recon will be flying overnight into Flo.
1875. ricderr
yep...can correct my spelling and typing errors now....after i post them..and they stand out like a sore thumb
1876. funeeeg
456: What is the ball of convection 1000 miles south east of Florence? Is it just being enhanced by some upper level divergence or is associated with a tropical wave? Another thing; is it unusual to have had so much Saharan dust over the south Atlantic this year. Seems to me that this has been the main reason that alot of these waves have not been able to get organised into TC's. Thank you for your posts, they are really interesting and informative.
Morn'n all. So far so good with Flo. No surprises is a good thing!
i'd have to agree that 456 is probably the best expert here.

2 questions... was it anticipated all along as to how slow flo has moved and when is the approximate time frame for it's turn northerly?
1880. ricderr
SAVANNAH...DA DA DA BOOM!!!!!!!
Sandcrab.....I can't get that file to open.
1883. IKE
Posted By: SavannahStorm at 7:27 AM CDT on September 08, 2006.

When I told my wife Flo wasn't going to pay us a visit, she snarled and snapped back, "Like hell it isn't! I get a visit from her once a month!"


Bless her heart. That suxs.
funeeeg, that is mostly associated with convection from a trough/front in the eastern Atlantic:

After the wind event, the storm brought the most widespread snow event in Southern Brazil since 1994. It snowed in 62 cities.


Blame it on Global Warming....
Dad blame puters lol ok will fax it I know that works.
Rand, fax sent
sandcrab39565...Got it...thanks!
Rand it just helps see the timeing and a view other projections. I thought along with the loops and other info might give you a better insight to the train of thought.
Morning guys - ric - Rand is not writing prose yet - that should answer part of your question about his evening! Then again, his interest in writing the forecast is somewhat waning...

I see still good news on Flo - at least the part about her NOT hitting the U.S. or at least that's what our locals are broadcasting this morning.
1891. ricderr
SADDLE...my spies are out and about..and the rumor mill is filling up...wait for doc's update for post number 2...more breaking news to follow
Good mornin all.It looks like Florence is finally trying to organize. The shear has relaxed quite a bit over the center since yesterday creating a more favorable environment. Dry air continues to be a problem but not as much as yesterday. Still the dry air will slow intensification. I still think Flo will be a hurricane sometime tomorrow.
ric baby - rumors are just that - you know that - it will be SO OBVIOUS if something happens - sort of like a tsunami effect - the earth will shift on its axis. Oh and I ALWAYS KNEW Rand was a fella!
1895. ricderr
my lips are mummmmmm........
Oh and I ALWAYS KNEW Rand was a fella!

I always thought that myself..LOL!
Well, need to get things back on topic as I seem lately to shift the focus OFF weather and that is not my intent, but was sort of shocked that anyone questioned that.
Good morning all.

Does anyone know why there hasn't been a GFS update? If there has and I'm missing it, someone just tell me to drink another cup of coffee and try again.

:)
Swlaagie. Look in my blog. I have it updated in there.
rand, re: "Posted By: Randrewl at 11:42 AM GMT on September 08, 2006.

ric....check the surface chart. Looks like that trough is just stalled." against my better friday judgement, i looked at your link. "stationary" and "stalled" being the same animal, where did this chart come from, and how often is it updated, and can i have this link jo
Thanks WG03,

I should have known. :)
Top of the morning to you GS.
TGIF everybody! Good morning! :)


saw this off the NE coast of S. America.....






appears to a "spin" starting up this morning, and "seems" to be in an area of relatively low shear, atm..... and always seems this year to be dry air around.... never the less, this will have to be watched for further development! :)
1906. Zaphod
Looks to me like the blob at 8N 38W is exhibiting rotation, though it remains awfully far south for much earth rotational help. Any thoughts on where the Flo and the upper level features would steer it?

Flo, for the first time, has convection over the rotational center (at least the area that I have maintained is the primary center -- sometimes there have been others). She is still dry on the SW side, but in another day it looks like she should have pushed past that.

Now for the BIG question...since "my" center is, and has been, well to the S of the NHC center, how would that affect the track? Since it's been pretty much a straight line, not at all up until now. If it continues to follow the curve, the difference will be nil. If, however, a further S track delays a wave pick-up, the turn N will be later, and the East Coast effects will be greater.

I can see no reasonable (>5% chance) of it getting anywhere close to the coast, but Flo is SO BIG that any sort of near-miss could still have significant effects.

Zap
Good morning everyone from Beautiful Bermuda...Jim and I arrived last night. We know there is a storm headed this we but frankly, we don't care.....

bermuda
LOL as I sit in front of my computer in PetroChemical Heaven.
1910. Zaphod
27, be honest here...........
Are you logging on due to a natural and reasonable fear of being hit squarely by the biggest hurricane of the season, or by an irrational desire to blog with the rest of us?

Inquiring minds want to know.....
Zap
Did you bring enough sunscreen for Jim's head! If the sun is covered by the storm you can use it to deflect the winds and stay safe.
1912. Zaphod
27,
LOL, you had me going!

I'd forgotten the whole Jim fantasy thing!

Zap
I really thought Y'all would get it....Jim, aka Jim Cantore.
morning 27..... YOU LUCKY DEVIL! :)

howdy to the hubby, and enjoy your time!

I would just hate the idea that you may be sending us back storm reports, vs. a much needed/ deserved vacation!

We will see if we can "wishcast" it away! LOL

See my previous post!
1916. eye
Are there any promising blobs out there?
My husbands name is Kirk.....Sorry, I hope no one is ticked off at me.
DOH!

duped again! LOL

Saddle picked up on immediately....

How is everyone this morning?
NO, I WAS JUST WISHING I WAS IN BERMUDA AS WELL! LOL
Is there anything out there, other than Flo we can watch?

I have to admit I'm getting bored with this season....I should be ashamed.
I can only imagine how disapointed the TD and open wave wishers are as Flo continues to see more favorable conditions and is likely to begin slowly gaining strength today.
1924. Zaphod
Obviously, I am slow, thickwitted, and sleepy!

But I am interested in the new blob at 8N 38W. Flo is waxing and waning as usual, and as ugly as ever.

Zap
Good Morning Gulf......I think we should have fun today......and who the heck is Captain Tomato?
1926. PBG00
Wow! You people start early! G'mornin to all!
1927. Zaphod
Is there a recent quikscat out?
Zap
Mornin PGB....or as I call you PB&J.
Good morning!

32*
1931. PBG00
Better than Goo!
1932. Gatorx
Thank you 456-

Your posts with graphics are the single most informative learning tool for me. Keep up the good work.
Mornin 32.

Does anyone know if Bermuda is a British Crown Colony or is it an independent nation?

No, I don't feel like going to Wikipedia.
1934. PBG00
I thought independent...i will check
Goo is that stuff thats in the bottom of the trash can.
27 - it's a Crown dependancy of Great Britain.

32*
Thanks 32, and PB&J, for checking.
Posted By: ihave27windows at 1:33 PM GMT on Septiembre 08, 2006.

Mornin 32.

Does anyone know if Bermuda is a British Crown Colony or is it an independent nation?

No, I don't feel like going to Wikipedia.


Bermuda is externally a self-governing overseas territory of the United Kingdom. It makes all its own laws. UK and European Community laws do not apply in Bermuda. Britain, as the country responsible for Bermuda, shrugs off the citizenship laws of Bermuda that state that newcomers from other countries can come here to work despite the island's small size and exceptionally high population per square mile but, unlike in Britain, are not allowed to gain citizenship or vote or acquire lower-priced real estate unless they they qualify for citizenship in ways no other Western country require. In the UK, USA, Canada and elsewhere, citizenship comes after 3 (if married to a national) or 5 years, tops. But not in Bermuda, not even if you stay longer than 5 years.
1939. Gatorx
Good Morning everyone....that's all I can say...I mean there is just nothin to say about the weather..
1940. Zaphod
Note the NHC position of 22.1N 57.6W. Their 5:00 position is well S of their own forecast track.

With a little luck Flo will go W of Bermuda and E of the coast.

Zap
yawm whats new with are TS today
1942. eye
Bermuda, Bahamas, come on pretty momma...
IH27W, starting early,lol.

Have fun while you can. 15 or 20 years Jim will be hunched over wearing earphones for his metal detector, scanning the beach for his microphone,lol.
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:38 PM GMT on Septiembre 08, 2006.

yawm whats new with are TS today


Taz..i have good news and bad news for yuo..the good news...we have right now 6 tropical systems in the altantic to track...is amazing!!....the bad news...I am lying..there is only 1 and is flo....lol
91L and 92L are gone now from the navy site
what is a 'detecture'?
While Florence is still a Tropical Storm...she is still disorganized. Convection is holding a bit to the North and NW of the system trying to stay away from shear and being fired by interaction with the ridge. Still there is dry air involved to the South and West. This will probably keep intensification somewhat in check for the next 24 hrs. Even without the dry air intrusion, as large and disorganized as Florence is it would take quite some time to wrap up into a Hurricane.
At this point I see no reason to doubt the models and their call for the track of Florence to start curving to the North and eventually the NE. It's just a matter of when that will occur. Official track calls for that to happen on Saturday.
So, it's a matter of intensity and when the turn starts for now!
1949. Gatorx
OK I said good morning to everyone..and no one said good morning back...so now I will say goodbye...grocery shoppin day...TGIF ..payday
1950. eye
Jim is going to be chasing Canes when he is 100. He will look 50 however...he is going to be the next Hope.
Sorry Gator......Morning
1952. eye
Taz, there is nothing else out there besides Fisherwoman Flo.
Tropical Storm Florence:

1954. Zaphod
GLOBAL WARMING! HERE COME THE DINOSAURS!

The latest super-heated earth blurb:
Link

Fortunately, while we're heading pell-mell for a mass extinction event, we're also heading for the technology cross-over point at which amateurs will be able to create new and interesting life forms (viruses, pets, etc) via genetic engineering.

Zap

27 you really there??? friggin beautiful view if in fact you are. i am going to panama city florida 1st week of october cant wait to see the white sand and blue water. have fun
1956. Gatorx
ihave27windows-

thank you..but you have a good explanation..if I were in Bermuda with hunky Jim..I would not be on this blog...
1957. ricderr
RAND.....ok..so i take it that is the official rand forecast?......ok..so the rumor mill will just have to shift to..why such a delay....
not enough coffee yet, mornin' all, thank you WU for modify comments option.
1959. eye
So do yall think we will have a major cane this season?

Tis the season of no eyes?(clear)?
why such a delay


Yeah that's official...for now! Delay caused by digging for too much information. I didn't find anything that made me too suspicious. Just keeping an eye on the evolution of that trough and the high behind it. Florence still has a long way to go before Hurricane status from what I see.
Of course some of the delay may have been caused by staying up all night with those two women....but I'm back on track now...LOL!
1962. ricderr
Delay caused by digging for too much information
rand...while that may be true....it doesn't make for colorful commentary..so...until it is confirmed...we here at the WU Bugle cannot accept that statement and will have to report the 'facts" as we know them
ric....I modified my comment above. That's a great feature!
Posted By: Zaphod at 8:27 AM CDT on September 08, 2006.

Obviously, I am slow, thickwitted, and sleepy!
But I am interested in the new blob at 8N 38W. Flo is waxing and waning as usual, and as ugly as ever.

Does anyone see any potential with this blob?
Robin, it was a joke.....Earlier, while I was lurking, ricderr made a comment that if they evacuated Bermuda, and Jim Cantore was ther, I would be the only tourist staying.

For Everyone, I AM NOT IN BERMUDA! LOL
1966. A4Guy
Jim Cantore is v. sexy!
ok i get it. but i like jim too.... even though..... lol... that was a beautiful picture though
I don't mind sharing Robin.
Well at least there's a couple cloud blobs in Atlantic today. Yesterday looked vacant other than Flo...
Historical note: Today is the anniversary of the 1900 Galveston Hurricane. Still the deadliest US natural disaster.
New Blog!
Is there anything out there, other than Flo we can watch?

I have to admit I'm getting bored with this season....I should be ashamed.


How can you get bored with Flo? She is Large,mysterious,and interesting to look at!
what a storm!!!
1973. funeeeg
Global warming is a fact, the question is how much of it is man made. It seems that the argument is becoming increasingly polarised; the scientists on one side and those in denial on the other. The greater the denial the more seeingly outraged and outrageous the scientists claims and conjecture becomes.