WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Little Change to Dorian as it Heads West-Northwest

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:31 PM GMT on July 25, 2013

Tropical Storm Dorian continues steaming west-northwest at 17 mph across the middle of the Atlantic Ocean with little change in appearance this morning. Satellite images show that Dorian is a small but well-organized system with a moderate amount of heavy thunderstorms. Although Dorian is a small storm, it has tapped into a large area of moisture to its southwest associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and has significantly moisturized its environment. A large area of dry air still lies to Dorian's west, as seen on water vapor satellite images. Dorian is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, which will tend to allow slow development. Ocean temperatures are barely adequate for maintaining strength of a tropical storm, about 25.5°C, but are now on the rise.


Figure 1. This morning's 00Z GFS model was run 20 different times at low resolution with slight perturbations to the initial fields of temperature, moisture, pressure, and winds. This ensemble of forecasts for Dorian is presented here in the pink lines, with the regular high-resolution forecast in white. The ensemble shows that the long-range track of Dorian is likely to follow one of two paths: a sharp recurvature to the north, missing the U.S., or a continued west-northwest path into the Bahamas, Florida, or Cuba.

Forecast for Dorian
The band of moist, unstable air to its southwest that has been feeding Dorian the past two days is forecast to get cut off on Friday, which will leave the storm isolated in a region with relatively dry, stable air. However, the SHIPS model predicts that wind shear will stay in the low range through Sunday, so there may be no mechanism to drive dry air into the storm to weaken it significantly. Ocean temperatures will begin to rise significantly next two days, reaching 27°C by Friday night and 28°C by Sunday. This increase in water temperature may counteract the more stable air Dorian will be in, allowing the storm to maintain its strength. Given its small size, Dorian is capable of relatively large changes in intensity in a short amount of time, and it would not surprise me if the storm dissipated by the end of the week--or became a Category 1 hurricane. The official NHC forecast of a tropical storm passing just north of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday is the most likely outcome; the 11 am wind probability forecast from NHC gave Dorian a 25 - 32% chance of being a hurricane at that time. Since Dorian is a small storm, the impacts to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands may be minor, if the core of the storm passes more than 50 miles to the north of the islands, as the official NHC forecast currently anticipates. It currently appears that Dorian will be a potential threat to the Bahama Islands, Bermuda, and the U.S. East Coast next week. There will be a trough of low pressure capable of recurving Dorian out to sea before the storm reaches the Bahamas and U.S., but it is uncertain if this trough will be strong enough to do the trick.

The Friday and Saturday updates on Dorian will be later than usual this week, as I am traveling on the West Coast.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 2497. nocanesplease:
Who's JVF?

I'm just a lurker down here in Puerto Rico.



Nevere mine Welcome too the blogs
Quoting 2466. SouthernIllinois:

Awwwwwwwwwwww SO CUTE. He's on a treasure hunt and going to make you a rich man!! haha. Did he make a beeline for the water after getting all sandy or did you have to force him in beyond his will to wash off 'fore gettin' back into the car. :)

Gorgeous pier picture! My goodness!! Thanks for sharing Mik!

Nat


Natalie, I swear you're the bubbliest person on the blog! Such a pleasure to read your posts. Actually, we trotted off to find the Johnson's, an elderly couple that feeds some of the cat 'pods' in the neighborhood. They also carry treats for Dex, who loves Mr. & Mrs. J to the point of trembling, squeaky excitement!

Quoting 2468. K8eCane:



Whats he getting into today???


Off to work with mom who's an office manager for a roofing company. Somebody's gotta keep that roofing contractor in line! (He works for peanuts - literally).
Quoting 2498. centex:



Me and you Barbecue
stinky pinky
pew pew pew

Mr Jingles he a circus mouse, he gonna live in a mouse city down in Florida
2504. 62901IL
Quoting 2502. mikatnight:


Natalie, I swear you're the bubbliest person on the blog! Such a pleasure to read your posts. Actually, we trotted off to find the Johnson's, an elderly couple that feeds some of the cat 'pods' in the neighborhood. They also carry treats for Dex, who loves Mr. & Mrs. J to the point of trembling, squeaky excitement!



Off to work with mom who's an office manager for a roofing company. Somebody's gotta keep that roofing contractor in line! (He works for peanuts - literally).

Are you talking about ME?
2505. LargoFl
days ago, at a 2am NHC forecast, it had dorian down to a depression righta about where he is now,,which maybe happening now..BUT..it also had him north of the Islands later on as a very strong TS...seems that forecast may be the one to listen to and watch for days later..we'll see what happens..but the fat lady hasnt sung yet huh.
2506. Dakster
Quoting 2503. HimacaneBrees:



Me and you Barbecue
stinky pinky
pew pew pew

Mr Jingles he a circus mouse, he gonna live in a mouse city down in Florida


Feeling OK this morning?
Quoting 2485. Dakster:


I can't believe you were able to eat a whole can of spam.
Dak..Not to bad if you marinate it for 3 days in rum and lemon, then put it on the grill...I usually just drank the juice and threw the rest away...Heck, I had to survive didn't I?
2508. 62901IL
Quoting 2505. LargoFl:
days ago, at a 2am NHC forecast, it had dorian down to a depression,which maybe happening now..BUT..it also had him north of the Islands later on as a very strong TS...seems that forecast may be the one to listen to and watch for days later..we'll see what happens..but the fat lady hasnt sung yet huh.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Dorian is on his last leg this morning, much like Chantal. Right now, Dorian is on the verge of collapsing and one wrong move could kill him off. Right now, it's do or die, and the likelihood of him becoming a Hurricane has been much diminished. It Appears Dorian may just scrape away with his life but will be subject to hostile conditions if they are in the vicinity, north of the islands.
My intensity forecast-
INIT: 50 Mph
06 HRS: 45 Mph
12 HRS: 45 Mph
24 HRS: 50 Mph
36 HRS: 50 Mph
48 HRS: 50 Mph
72 HRS: 60 Mph
96 HRS: 60 Mph
120 HRS: 50 Mph (Weakening, in assumption that the environment turns less favorable)

It appears the likelihood of Dorian tracking up the East coast as a hurricane has vanquished, and interests in the Greater Antilles and Gulf of Mexico should keep an eye on the storm, as it will be tracking more westward than first thought.
JUST LESSON TO REMEMBER BUT,

Andrew is in about the same condition at this point in time like Dorian? Sorta the same track if I recall. Andrew was also a tiny little thing like Dorian as well. Just remember SMALL system like Dorian can start Spinning very quickly very Quick and wind down very Quickly as well.
Quoting 2504. 62901IL:

Are you talking about ME?
.


No he is not
2512. LargoFl
Outta here for now folks. Another busy day, have a good one!
2514. centex
Quoting 2508. 62901IL:

It ain't over till the fat lady sings.
Unless it's a double header and she will need to sing twice.
2515. 62901IL
Quoting 2514. centex:
Unless it's a double header and she will need to sing twice.

I wonder what song the fat lady will sing.
Interesting lightning in the Mid- USA.



Link
2517. 62901IL
Quoting 2516. AussieStorm:
Interesting lightning in the Mid- USA.



Link

Nice!
Quoting 2506. Dakster:


Feeling OK this morning?



Yep just fine. just quoting a little of the "Green Mile" Centex posted the pic lol.


Jesus is here again this morning. We were just talking and he still say's that Dorian is headed for Florida then the Gulf. It rained yesterday so Jesus wasn't able to finish mowing the lawn and the pasture.
2519. scott39
Goodmorning, Dorian is a vigorous piece of energy. He is doing quite well with the enviroment he has to work with. I hope that he doesnt find a sweet spot down the road....
2520. LargoFl
( the storm clouds are building here on the coast right now,thick dark clouds,gonna be big boomers later today)..............THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
EARLY MORNING STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS SCATTERED LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST AND PUSH INLAND. STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINS AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE THE MAIN
HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.
So now we got the GFS hitting CUBA instead of Hispaniola. I have been saying this from the beginning and I will stick to my guns. Dorian will enter the GOMEX at least as a Tropical Storm. The NHC has their forecast right as usual.

When do you the waves will get a yellow crayon.
A 2p
B 8p
C 2a

I think A.
Quoting 2518. HimacaneBrees:



Yep just fine. just quoting a little of the "Green Mile" Centex posted the pic lol.

Jesus is here again this morning. We were just talking and he still say's that Dorian is headed for Florida then the Gulf. It rained yesterday so Jesus wasn't able to finish mowing the lawn and the pasture.


Seems "Hey Zeus" is an expert on this Dorian
So it looks like Flossie may maintain TS strength as it hits Hawaii
2526. Dakster
Quoting 2514. centex:
Unless it's a double header and she will need to sing twice.


I thought this was a family blog...
I see Dorian is still headed downhill from last night...no surprise. Expected weakening, but maybe he'll regain his intensity tomorrow morning.
2528. ncstorm
NHC discussion..

THE GFS...NAVGEM...AND HWRF ARE THE
SOUTHERNMOST OF THE MODELS...FORECASTING THE STORM TO PASS NEAR OR
OVER HISPANIOLA IN 4-5 DAYS. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE THE NORTHERNMOST...FORECASTING A POSITION NEAR THE
BAHAMAS IN 5 DAYS. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THESE
SCENARIOS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

DORIAN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EXPERIENCING MODERATE SHEAR AND DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT FOR THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE
SHOWS SOME WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME...AND THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT SCENARIO IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY
CONSENSUS. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT DORIAN
SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WHILE
THE GFS SHOWS CONTINUING SHEAR DURING THIS INTERACTION...THE ECMWF
AND UKMET SHOW A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. BASED ON THE PREMISE
THAT THE SHEAR COULD BE LESS THAN FORECAST BY THE GFS AND THE SHIPS
MODEL...THE FORECAST SHOWS SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AT 96 HOURS.
AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT DORIAN COULD DISSIPATE...EITHER
FROM LANDFALL ON HISPANIOLA OR FROM DEGENERATING TO A TROPICAL WAVE
DUE TO THE CURRENT HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.


Not very impressive on WV
2530. T3CH
Some interesting information presented in HAARP related patents referencing weather modification.

Method and Apparatus for Altering a Region in the Earth's Atmosphere, Ionosphere, or Magnetosphere.

http://www.google.com/patents/US4686605?dq=468660 5&hl=en&sa=X&ei=bX3yUYPWA4jO8QSB6YDQDQ&sqi=2&pjf=1 &ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA

"This invention has a phenomenal variety of possible ramifications and potential future developments...Weather modification is possible by, for example, altering upper atmosphere wind patterns or altering solar absorption patterns by constructing one or more plumes of atmospheric particles which will act as a lens or focusing device."


Cosmic Particle Ignition of Artificially Ionized Plasma Patterns in the Atmosphere

http://www.google.com/patents/US20070238252?dq=20 07/0238252+A1&hl=en&sa=X&ei=jnvyUamUDIXg8wST_oD4Bg &ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA

Look at section 0012 of the Objectives

"Weather control applications include a method of localized heating of the troposphere that can generate acoustic atmospheric waves or gravitational atmospheric waves for modification of the steering winds that influence weather phenomena. Another application is to provide ionized plasma patterns that can influence the charge distribution in meso-cyclones and provide a novel means of lightening protection."

2531. LargoFl
Quoting 2522. HurricaneAndre:
When do you the waves will get a yellow crayon.
A 2p
B 8p
C 2a

I think A.

They won't be mentioned, there is no threat for them to develop so why would the NHC mention them? They likely will never be mentioned, the SAL will choke it out.
Quoting 2523. RitaEvac:


Seems "Hey Zeus" is an expert on this Dorian


I don't know if he's an expert on tropical systems or not. But when it started raining yesterday, Jesus and I had a few beers and the guy seems to know a whole lot about everything after a 12 pack.
Quoting 62901IL:

Nice!


Close-up of Texas....



Link
I still say Dorian will strengthen quite nicely as he gets to/ passes north of the islands, and he recurves. Also, something else im sure of...I am HUNGRY!!
2536. LargoFl
Quoting 2533. HimacaneBrees:


I don't know if he's an expert on tropical systems or not. But when it started raining yesterday, Jesus and I had a few beers and the guy seems to know a whole lot about everything after a 12 pack.


Don't we all? Lol
interesting inverted trough just to the nw of dorian
Quoting 2535. SPLbeater:
I still say Dorian will strengthen quite nicely as he gets to/ passes north of the islands, and he recurves. Also, something else im sure of...I am HUNGRY!!


I am David, nice to meet you
Although Dorian looks awful today, I would not rule out further development down the road. Several have alluded to Andrew, and on Friday night before the storm, the report was that it was going into an open wave. Come Sunday night, that certainly wasn't true.

Andrew is not the only storm that has regenerated after getting beat up coming up from Africa. Most of the storms have a hard time across this stretch.

Doesn't hurt to make sure your hurricane plan is ready. As I tell my husband, if everything is all set and ready, it will never come! Our own hurricane shield.
2541. Dakster
I am still trying to figure out what the Home Affordable Refinance Program has to do with weather...







(Just in case - Sarcasm: on)
Anyone have a new ASCAT?
Quoting 2535. SPLbeater:
I still say Dorian will strengthen quite nicely as he gets to/ passes north of the islands, and he recurves. Also, something else im sure of...I am HUNGRY!!

He is not recurving now. He is too weak, and will remain weak. The ridge is going to continue to back west in tandem with Dorian and this will keep him going West or WNW through the Bahamas. The most western solution is now going to have to be considered because of Dorian's weakening.
2544. LargoFl
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 15SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.6N 44.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.3N 48.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.9N 52.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 56.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.0N 63.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.5N 68.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.5N 73.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
2545. AztecCe
ugh. Dorian turned out to be another crap-storm, just like Chantal. Hopefully the next wave will give us something better
2546. AztecCe
ugh. Dorian turned out to be another crap-storm, just like Chantal. Hopefully the next wave will give us something better
Quoting 2543. TylerStanfield:

He is not recurving now. He is too weak, and will remain weak. The ridge is going to continue to back west in tandem with Dorian and this will keep him going West or WNW through the Bahamas. The most western solution is now going to have to be considered because of Dorian's weakening.


Conditions in the GOMEX are not conducive for intensification right now. I'm starting to think that the GFS has a point when it dissipates it. Whether it is by hitting Cuba or by entering the hurricane hostile GOMEX. Anyone here has a forecast for the GOMEX?
Hispaniola looks like it will win again..a waste of a good name..I wanted him to be like Danielle in 2010..
2549. LargoFl
great lakes going to have storms tomorrow..stay safe folks up there..
2550. Patrap
AL042013 - Tropical Storm DORIAN

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Good morning all and TGIF. One thing I love about these 20 MPH moving storms is that the following day I wake up and check in on them, and they get closer to having a more accurate forecast. :)
2553. LargoFl
2554. AztecCe
.
2555. Patrap
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have a new ASCAT?


4hrs old but ......


2557. LargoFl
...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN INTERIOR AND EAST...
...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES AREA WIDE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS: CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR.
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND BISCAYNE BAY, DUE TO THE
COLLISION OF THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE MAINLAND AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR JUST OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTH FLORIDA AREA.
TS Flossie
2560. LargoFl
Keeper..does the Canadian GEM model still have Dorian slipping thru the straights of florida into the gulf then swinging Back into central florida?


"K" was laughed at at this point as well, I'm realistic and I know that in 2005 conditions were perfect for any system to intensify into a monster. Fortunately, that's not the case here. SSTs in the GOMEX are at record low and even that we have low shear at this time, we don't see every ingredient needed for rapid intensification out there. In 2005 the GOMEX was a hurricane incubator this year the GOMEX is a hurricane graveyard. I don't see much future for Dorian.
2562. LargoFl
alot of Lightning around the TX/LA borders,must be strong storms there...
2563. beltane
Quoting 2542. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have a new ASCAT?

sorry, my ASCAT is old and ragged.

Try Ebay.
Goodnight all... Stay cool, stay dry, stay safe.
after watching this blog for the past 2 days I am amazed about how unprofessional this blog has become. Some of you, like always, are terrific and should be commended for your good work and your participation....

however where in the hell have all these new people come from? this blog is now crammed full of bullcrap, conjecture, and downright dart-throwing.

i guess the weather channels purchase of Weather Underground, and the subsequent advertisement of this website led to a bunch of uneducated and unwise trolls and wish casters joining and adding their two cents.....

it really is sad because now it is almost not worth searching through this blog for the tidbits of pertinent, valid, correct information that are buried in tons of horsesh*t.......

i guess nothing good lasts forever..... thanks Weather Channel, you have f*cked up a great thing.....5 years ago Weather Underground used to be something special......now it is a playground full of distractions, lies, and bullcrap.....
2566. Dakster
Quoting 2562. LargoFl:
alot of Lightning around the TX/LA borders,must be strong storms there...


All I see is a black box. Did lightning take out the server?
Quoting LargoFl:
alot of Lightning around the TX/LA borders,must be strong storms there...




Close-up of Texas....



Link
Quoting 2556. AussieStorm:


4hrs old but ......




That was last night's pass. More like 12 hours old.
2569. hydrus
Quoting 2510. TampaSpin:
JUST LESSON TO REMEMBER BUT,

Andrew is in about the same condition at this point in time like Dorian? Sorta the same track if I recall. Andrew was also a tiny little thing like Dorian as well. Just remember SMALL system like Dorian can start Spinning very quickly very Quick and wind down very Quickly as well.
Yep..Andrew was actually forecast to dissipate. It was down to 40 mph, and looked about dead. I remember vividly.
Slow blog... and I perfectly understand it. Pathetic Dorian + WNW motion :(
mick jagger is 70 today
2572. SLU
Quoting 2570. CaribBoy:
Slow blog... and I perfectly understand it. Pathetic Dorian + WNW motion :(


+ death before US landfall.
Quoting 2553. LargoFl:


Largo, could you just nudge that storm a little more down into west central Louisiana for me?
2574. Relix
Quoting 2570. CaribBoy:
Slow blog... and I perfectly understand it. Pathetic Dorian + WNW motion :(


I really want this thing to hit you :P! Really! You need the rain haha, hopefully it'll hold on and revive near 50W like most systems do in this area. Just think... it's weak right now so it could be pushed west and even WSW if the ridge goes hyper on it. I am all perfect with a 40mph Storm hitting PR :P.
2575. hydrus
Quoting 2559. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
If Dorian makes the the Florida Straits with some kind of circulation, there may be a significant problem. It is worth mentioning that the GFS has a very potent short wave swinging rapidly into the Mid-South in 10 days. To far out to say if it happens, but it does show that the persistent troughing over the eastern third continues even though we are well into summer...strange weather indeed.
ASCAT pass from 2 hours ago reveals Dorian's closure is weak. NESDIS imagery says 5-10kts of westerlies on the south side. KMNI imagery says Dorian is an open wave. I don't think Dorian is an open wave yet, but satellite imagery confirms the circulation is weak. No westerlies evident south of the convective mass on the RGB loop.

NESDIS




KMNI

This morning I received the first rain in 4 days in Fort Myers. A nasty line of storms moved through starting at 5:30 am. A lot of lightening and thunder too. No hail. At 6:45 am when it finally let up enough to head to work my stratus rain guage registered 1.32".
2578. LargoFl
Quoting 2573. aislinnpaps:


Largo, could you just nudge that storm a little more down into west central Louisiana for me?
it sure looks like that whole area will get some of those bad storms
Quoting 2530. T3CH:
Some interesting information presented in HAARP related patents referencing weather modification.

Method and Apparatus for Altering a Region in the Earth's Atmosphere, Ionosphere, or Magnetosphere.

http://www.google.com/patents/US4686605?dq=468660 5&hl=en&sa=X&ei=bX3yUYPWA4jO8QSB6YDQDQ &sqi=2&pjf=1 &ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA

"This invention has a phenomenal variety of possible ramifications and potential future developments...Weather modification is possible by, for example, altering upper atmosphere wind patterns or altering solar absorption patterns by constructing one or more plumes of atmospheric particles which will act as a lens or focusing device."


Cosmic Particle Ignition of Artificially Ionized Plasma Patterns in the Atmosphere

http://www.google.com/patents/US20070238252?dq=20 07/0238252 A1&hl=en&sa=X&ei=jnvyUamUDI Xg8wST_oD4Bg &ved=0CDQQ6AEwAA

Look at section 0012 of the Objectives

"Weather control applications include a method of localized heating of the troposphere that can generate acoustic atmospheric waves or gravitational atmospheric waves for modification of the steering winds that influence weather phenomena. Another application is to provide ionized plasma patterns that can influence the charge distribution in meso-cyclones and provide a novel means of lightening protection."

The only thing "interesting" about such debunked silliness is that it keeps popping up from time to time despite how long ago it was shown to be a bunch of nonsense. I'm too tired to go into detail; just read here if you're interested.
2580. LargoFl
Quoting 2556. AussieStorm:


4hrs old but ......




Thanks Aussie
Meanwhile, where people live, A raw day as a coastal storm hits New England. 30 mph or so winds on Cape Cod and Nantuket
2583. LargoFl
Quoting 2569. hydrus:
Yep..Andrew was actually forecast to dissipate. It was down to 40 mph, and looked about dead. I remember vividly.


Yes, but how about the conditions surrounding Andrew and Katrina and rap[idly intensifying hurricanes. The are just not there for Dorian. At least not in the GOMEX. I could see it intensifying a little bit, but I honestly doubt that it will ever make it to hurricane strength.
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;)

Still looking puny, but convergence seems to have shown the first sign of improvement as it's also finally broken away from the moisture of the monsoonal trough. See, too, that the escape window and route out to sea is closing.



If it can maintain vorticity, get better organized, the weak system will continue to track more westwards underneath a growing stronger Atlantic high. Its trouble now will be being able to grow its own convection facing a dry air environment in its path. I've my doubts, doesn't look near the fighter as was Chantal.
Tropical Storm DORIAN
...DORIAN REMAINS DISORGANIZED WHILE MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

11:00 AM AST Fri Jul 26
Location: 17.7°N 43.4°W
Moving: WNW at 21 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph
Quoting 2579. Neapolitan:
The only thing "interesting" about such debunked silliness is that it keeps popping up from time to time despite how long ago it was shown to be a bunch of nonsense. I'm too tired to go into detail; just read here if you're interested.
"Meanwhile back at the ranch"
2588. IKE
From the new discussion.....from the NHC....on Dorian....

AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
2589. Patrap
Boston
NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation
Range 248 NMI



Quoting 2565. odinslightning:
after watching this blog for the past 2 days I am amazed about how unprofessional this blog has become. Some of you, like always, are terrific and should be commended for your good work and your participation....

however where in the hell have all these new people come from? this blog is now crammed full of bullcrap, conjecture, and downright dart-throwing.

i guess the weather channels purchase of Weather Underground, and the subsequent advertisement of this website led to a bunch of uneducated and unwise trolls and wish casters joining and adding their two cents.....

it really is sad because now it is almost not worth searching through this blog for the tidbits of pertinent, valid, correct information that are buried in tons of horsesh*t.......

i guess nothing good lasts forever..... thanks Weather Channel, you have f*cked up a great thing.....5 years ago Weather Underground used to be something special......now it is a playground full of distractions, lies, and bullcrap.....


Weren't all of you new at some point? Like myself, some people have been lurking for several years and finally decided to join. While I do agree the level of trolls has went up, it doesn't take away from the great information given on this blog.
2591. LargoFl
2593. Patrap
Portland-Gray
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

Quoting 2576. TomTaylor:
ASCAT pass from 2 hours ago reveals Dorian's closure is weak. NESDIS imagery says 5-10kts of westerlies on the south side. KMNI imagery says Dorian is an open wave. I don't think Dorian is an open wave yet, but satellite imagery confirms the circulation is weak. No westerlies evident south of the convective mass on the RGB loop.

NESDIS




KMNI



Thanks Tom!
2595. Grothar
2596. IKE

Quoting SecretStormNerd:


Weren't all of you new at some point? Like myself, some people have been lurking for several years and finally decided to join. While I do agree the level of trolls has went up, it doesn't take away from the great information given on this blog.
This blog has always had real good bloggers. It's also had trolls and wishcasters.
Quoting 2579. Neapolitan:
The only thing "interesting" about such debunked silliness is that it keeps popping up from time to time despite how long ago it was shown to be a bunch of nonsense. I'm too tired to go into detail; just read here if you're interested.


HAARP just sound like conspiracy theories to me. Although you have to think. Sandy last year pretty much helped Obama win the election by diverting attention to the storm. Perfect timing and perfect location for landfall. Or could it be that Republicans had a dud for a candidate?
Lack of recent microwave is killing me...on the other hand, Dorian is certainly not dead.



Looking at 17.8, 42.4, it is evident that a mid-level circulation is reestablishing itself, and if you look closely, you can see low level clouds streaming underneath the MLC in a cyclonic fashion the south side of the storm, suggesting that there is still indeed a closed surface low, since the northeast quad is the side which has had the most trouble with circulation in Dorian.
Quoting 2555. Patrap:
Quoting 2551. CaneHunter031472:


Yeah it's definitely trying via microwave, it also looks somewhat better then it did earlier, it may be organizing.. just maybe.
Good morning everyone! Well working on Day 3 here in my part of NW Florida with no rain and with the forecast it looks like we might finally be drying out a bit. Says we only have a 30% of isolated thunderstoms for the next week though I am a bit concerned about some rain in parts of Texas and Okalahoma that look to be headed SE. Not sure why are rain chances aren't higher but sure hope they are right. We could use a week or so without rain to dry out some, still standing water everywhere.
2601. IKE



Quoting 2540. zoomiami:
Although Dorian looks awful today, I would not rule out further development down the road. Several have alluded to Andrew, and on Friday night before the storm, the report was that it was going into an open wave. Come Sunday night, that certainly wasn't true.

Andrew is not the only storm that has regenerated after getting beat up coming up from Africa. Most of the storms have a hard time across this stretch.

Doesn't hurt to make sure your hurricane plan is ready. As I tell my husband, if everything is all set and ready, it will never come! Our own hurricane shield.


This is interesting. Not all tropical storms that severely struggle in the open Atlantic turn out to be nothing..

The change in track also brought the tropical storm into an environment of strong southwesterly vertical wind shear and quite high surface pressures to its north. Although the estimated maximum wind speed of Andrew varied little then, a rather remarkable evolution occurred.

Satellite images suggest that Andrew produced deep convection only sporadically for several days, mainly in several bursts of about 12 hours duration. Also, the deep convection did not persist. Instead, it was stripped away from the low-level circulation by the strong southwesterly flow at upper levels. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigated Andrew and, on the 20th, found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained. Andrew's central pressure rose considerably (Fig. 2 [87K GIF]). Nevertheless, the flight-level data indicated that Andrew retained a vigorous circulation aloft. Wind speeds near 70 kt were measured at an altitude of 1500 ft near a convective band lying to the northeast of the low-level center. Hence, Andrew is estimated on 20 August to have been a tropical storm with 40 kt surface winds and an astonishingly high central pressure of 1015 mb (Figs. 2 and 3 [87K GIF]).

Significant changes in the large-scale environment near and downstream from Andrew began by 21 August. Satellite imagery in the water vapor channel indicated that the low aloft to the east-southeast of Bermuda weakened and split. The bulk of the low opened into a trough which retreated northward. That evolution decreased the vertical wind shear over Andrew. The remainder of the low dropped southward to a position just southwest of Andrew where its circulation enhanced the upper-level outflow over the tropical storm. At the same time, a strong and deep high pressure cell formed near the U.S. southeast coast. A ridge built eastward from the high into the southwestern Atlantic with its axis lying just north of Andrew. The associated steering flow over the tropical storm became easterly. Andrew turned toward the west, accelerated to near 16 kt, and quickly intensified.
Quoting 2588. IKE:
From the new discussion.....from the NHC....on Dorian....

AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.


Hey Ike, great to see ya... From what I've been reading on here folks are saying he really doesn't have a chance, and then some are saying he does. Plus folks saying the GOM is shut down. What is your thoughts? Again great to see ya.

sheri
ugh a somewhat detailed post of mine is stuck at the very end of the last page
Quoting 2565. odinslightning:
after watching this blog for the past 2 days I am amazed about how unprofessional this blog has become. Some of you, like always, are terrific and should be commended for your good work and your participation....

however where in the hell have all these new people come from? this blog is now crammed full of bullcrap, conjecture, and downright dart-throwing.

i guess the weather channels purchase of Weather Underground, and the subsequent advertisement of this website led to a bunch of uneducated and unwise trolls and wish casters joining and adding their two cents.....

it really is sad because now it is almost not worth searching through this blog for the tidbits of pertinent, valid, correct information that are buried in tons of horsesh*t.......

i guess nothing good lasts forever..... thanks Weather Channel, you have f*cked up a great thing.....5 years ago Weather Underground used to be something special......now it is a playground full of distractions, lies, and bullcrap.....


It was going downhill long before TWC got involved, most people use this blog like it is Facebook and fill it with irrelevant banter and immature innuendos.
2606. Grothar
Quoting 2563. beltane:

sorry, my ASCAT is old and ragged.

Try Ebay.


I know how you feel.
2607. IKE

Quoting catastropheadjuster:


Hey Ike, great to see ya... From what I've been reading on here folks are saying he really doesn't have a chance, and then some are saying he does. Plus folks saying the GOM is shut down. What is your thoughts? Again great to see ya.

sheri
Dorian may not survive. Just going by models I don't see anything in the GOM  for at least a few days.
I do think a worst case scenario is for Dorian to just become an open wave. this will make him head to a more west or southwest direction for the next 3 days. And get him into the gulf where ssts are high. something to watch.
Just remember , I have been talking about ANDREW ! All along about Dorian , same type of setup . Don't count him out .
what happern to Dorian http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES08452013207s flq2G.jpg
Dorian look sick right now.
Quoting 2596. IKE:

This blog has always had real good bloggers. It's also had trolls and wishcasters.


Isn't what this is all about? Learning and discussing weather with like minded people? True there are some outrageous claims and forecasts here all the time, but I have learned more in the 8 years I have been lurking and commenting here than what I did in Navy "A" school for Aerographer's Mate. I did learn how to launch weather balloons in the Navy pretty good tho. If someone here complain about how much worst this site got well I have been here since 2007 and I have not seem much change since. New faces and the same ole ppl, but good chat and blogging. Anyway, you have to be a fool to come here to make life or death decisions that's why we have the NHC for. Come here to learn, entertain yourself, and have fun and go there to get true accurate forecast.
2613. Grothar
Finally in view on this one.
Quoting 2609. EyEtoEyE:
Just remember , I have been talking about ANDREW ! All along about Dorian , same type of setup . Don't count him out .


He does seem similar. He is a very compact storm. I'm interested in what the models said for him at the time. I know as far as strength, but what about path?
Quoting 2572. SLU:


+ death before US landfall.


LOL!
2616. Patrap
Quoting 2609. EyEtoEyE:
Just remember , I have been talking about ANDREW ! All along about Dorian , same type of setup . Don't count him out .


For every Andew there are hundreds that remain weak or vanish.
The comparisons to Andrew are HYSTERICAL!!!!!
2619. flcanes
Quoting 2614. SecretStormNerd:


He does seem similar. He is a very compact storm. I'm interested in what the models said for him at the time. I know as far as strength, but what about path?

It's possible track wise. Intensity wise i highly doubt. But you never know....
2620. Grothar
I'm not writing anything off just yet.


2621. Grothar
Quoting 2574. Relix:


I really want this thing to hit you :P! Really! You need the rain haha, hopefully it'll hold on and revive near 50W like most systems do in this area. Just think... it's weak right now so it could be pushed west and even WSW if the ridge goes hyper on it. I am all perfect with a 40mph Storm hitting PR :P.


XD XD maybe the 12Z will hear us ! I want rain and weather so badly lol. It's been dead boring for so looooooong :/
2623. flcanes
I think what we may see here is either a track similar to ike or andrew, more than likely i think its gonna shoot the straights with winds of about 60 in one weeks time
tropical storm Dorian will be a tropical wave by Saturday night
2625. flcanes
Quoting 2620. Grothar:
I'm not writing anything off just yet.



Nothing is out of play right now (except for it all the sudden turning around and heading back towards africa)
Quoting 2608. blueyedbiker:
I do think a worst case scenario is for Dorian to just become an open wave. this will make him head to a more west or southwest direction for the next 3 days. And get him into the gulf where ssts are high. something to watch.


High SSTs?


NOAA goes 'live' with new weather supercomputers

Hurricane model forecasting improvements will come immediately, thanks to the new 213 teraflop Linux-based systems

Computerworld - The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Thursday switched on two new supercomputers that are expected to improve weather forecasting.

The "go live" switch over to the new systems was made today without any fanfare, just a box of donuts on hand to mark 18 months of preparation and testing. The new IBM systems are now responsible for producing forecast data that's relied on in the U.S. and around the world.



http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9241087/NO AA_goes_live_with_new_weather_supercomputers
2629. hydrus
Quoting 2584. CaneHunter031472:


Yes, but how about the conditions surrounding Andrew and Katrina and rap[idly intensifying hurricanes. The are just not there for Dorian. At least not in the GOMEX. I could see it intensifying a little bit, but I honestly doubt that it will ever make it to hurricane strength.
I do not trust any circulation this time of year when it is near land and over warm water..At all.
Just FWIW, this is the advisory for Andrew the morning it very nearly died:

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

ANDREW CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES...ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CREW OF THE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO LOCATE A
CENTER...HOWEVER A 54 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE 5000 FT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST DAYLIGHT RECON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ON THE SURFACE.

THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NMC GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL...AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...INSISTS THAT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF ANDREW
CAN SURVIVE UNTIL THAT TIME. IT IS ALSO WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE AVN MODEL WINDS AT 200 MB LOOK REALISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CIRRUS LEVEL MOTIONS AROUND THE STORM. THIS
MIGHT GIVE SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE MODEL FORECAST. AGAIN...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WITHSTAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX
HOURS EARLIER...IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE STATISTICALLY-BASED OBJECTIVE
AIDS...NHC90 AND CLIPER...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...QLM AND BAM.
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TURNS ANDREW MORE NORTHWARD. THE AVN MODEL
PREDICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 62.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 23.3N 64.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.3N 66.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.8N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 70.0W 55 KTS
2631. flcanes
Quoting 2624. hurricanes2018:
tropical storm Dorian will be a tropical wave by Saturday night

I am holding firm and sticking with possible disspation due to land interaction by Monday morning.
Quoting 2565. odinslightning:
after watching this blog for the past 2 days I am amazed about how unprofessional this blog has become. Some of you, like always, are terrific and should be commended for your good work and your participation....

however where in the hell have all these new people come from? this blog is now crammed full of bullcrap, conjecture, and downright dart-throwing.

i guess the weather channels purchase of Weather Underground, and the subsequent advertisement of this website led to a bunch of uneducated and unwise trolls and wish casters joining and adding their two cents.....

it really is sad because now it is almost not worth searching through this blog for the tidbits of pertinent, valid, correct information that are buried in tons of horsesh*t.......

i guess nothing good lasts forever..... thanks Weather Channel, you have f*cked up a great thing.....5 years ago Weather Underground used to be something special......now it is a playground full of distractions, lies, and bullcrap.....



Forceful but I agree, I often find myself looking at the people who come in with their "know it all attitude" with pure disappointment because meteorology is such a beautiful thing to learn about. I see all these new people with member dates of 2013 some good some bad don't know em from the next guy. You throw out a joke that would get laughs over the past years and someone immediately try's to correct you. I enjoy this blog and the people, as we try to sift facts from obvious ignorance while trying to add some things as I see them. It's all rather disappointing the direction this place has gone:/
2633. barbamz
Quoting 2613. Grothar:
Finally in view on this one.


Not looking too bad, on one side, lol.

Dorian Gray
SecretStormNerd hello, I do believe Andrew was a little North of Dorian , and he fell apart , in same general , and came back to LIFE , around 70 and 75 W , then BAM ! and we know the rest of that sad story ! Please keep in contact !
2635. 62901IL
Quoting 2630. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just FWIW, this is the advisory for Andrew the morning it very nearly died:

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

ANDREW CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES...ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CREW OF THE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO LOCATE A
CENTER...HOWEVER A 54 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE 5000 FT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST DAYLIGHT RECON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ON THE SURFACE.

THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NMC GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL...AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...INSISTS THAT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF ANDREW
CAN SURVIVE UNTIL THAT TIME. IT IS ALSO WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE AVN MODEL WINDS AT 200 MB LOOK REALISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CIRRUS LEVEL MOTIONS AROUND THE STORM. THIS
MIGHT GIVE SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE MODEL FORECAST. AGAIN...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WITHSTAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX
HOURS EARLIER...IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE STATISTICALLY-BASED OBJECTIVE
AIDS...NHC90 AND CLIPER...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...QLM AND BAM.
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TURNS ANDREW MORE NORTHWARD. THE AVN MODEL
PREDICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 62.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 23.3N 64.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.3N 66.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.8N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 70.0W 55 KTS

Where'd you find that???????
I think the fact that Dorian popped up so far east so early on in the season as a legit CV type storm in and of itself makes for an interesting discussion. One of the things I like so much about weather is its dynamic properties. One thing I know for sure is that the data we get from each and every storm and even the outlier storms adds to an invaluable growing data pool. Add to that its exciting from a mets standpoint to see what happens/where it goes plus its nice to have a heads up in the preparation dept. Also as my CO has told me countless times, its better to prepare and be wrong than to not prepare and ask what happened.
2637. flcanes
Quoting 2634. EyEtoEyE:
SecretStormNerd hello, I do believe Andrew was a little North of Dorian , and he fell apart , in same general , and came back to LIFE , around 70 and 75 W , then BAM ! and we know the rest of that sad story ! Please keep in contact !

I dont mean to sound an alarm, but a track similar to that rita is possible
2638. flcanes
Quoting 2636. calkevin77:
I think the fact that Dorian popped up so far east so early on in the season as a legit CV type storm in and of itself makes for an interesting discussion. One of the things I like so much about weather is its dynamic properties. One thing I know for sure is that the data we get from each and every storm and even the outlier storms adds to an invaluable growing data pool. Add to that its exciting from a mets standpoint to see what happens/where it goes plus its nice to have a heads up in the preparation dept. Also as my CO has told me countless times, its better to prepare and be wrong than to not prepare and ask what happened.

Yep. Both Chantal and Dorian are indications that we are going to be in it for the long haul.
Quoting 2605. TideWaterWeather:


It was going downhill long before TWC got involved, most people use this blog like it is Facebook and fill it with irrelevant banter and immature innuendos.


I still think it is a excellent blog, with just too much good information and people on it . All through the wish,doom casters and personal insults....... I have so much more knowledge of tropical weather. I joined only 3 years ago and thought I knew quite a bit about tropical weather.....I did not. Thanks to all the good folks on here! ...You know who you are.
Definitely looks as if that may have been a one off near death experience. New LLC formed that was what occured from what I can tell. Current LLC is north of the forecast point moving closer to 290 after yesterdays westward jog.
SouthernIllinois , Hysterical !! Go back and look at the storm history books , he's very similar , I think you find it out ! LOL !!
2642. Grothar
Quoting 2630. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just FWIW, this is the advisory for Andrew the morning it very nearly died:

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

ANDREW CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES...ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CREW OF THE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO LOCATE A
CENTER...HOWEVER A 54 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE 5000 FT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST DAYLIGHT RECON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ON THE SURFACE.

THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NMC GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL...AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...INSISTS THAT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF ANDREW
CAN SURVIVE UNTIL THAT TIME. IT IS ALSO WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE AVN MODEL WINDS AT 200 MB LOOK REALISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CIRRUS LEVEL MOTIONS AROUND THE STORM. THIS
MIGHT GIVE SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE MODEL FORECAST. AGAIN...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WITHSTAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX
HOURS EARLIER...IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE STATISTICALLY-BASED OBJECTIVE
AIDS...NHC90 AND CLIPER...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...QLM AND BAM.
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TURNS ANDREW MORE NORTHWARD. THE AVN MODEL
PREDICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 62.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 23.3N 64.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.3N 66.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.8N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 70.0W 55 KTS


Scary, but I remember reading that.
2643. JRRP

INIT 26/1500Z 17.7N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.7N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.7N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 20.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
Quoting 2620. Grothar:
I'm not writing anything off just yet.




So true..... never say never with tropical cyclones.
2645. flcanes
Quoting 2641. EyEtoEyE:
SouthernIllinois , Hysterical !! Go back and look at the storm history books , he's very similar , I think you find it out ! LOL !!

Except andrew formed a whole lot later
5:00 cone probably has Dorian running aground over Cuba, I think they went a little too far north with the 11:00, considering recent model guidance. Of note, TVCN and a few others consider the possibility of a reemergence in the NW Caribbean.

Personally, I see a Dorian who will fluctuate for another day, and then run into a bunch of shear at about 55W. No indication that it will abate, and it is holding right now at about 50 knots of killer, westerly shear.



To me, he'll open up once he hits 55-60, unless the shear drops. At the same time, he'll be concomitantly affected by the dry air already beginning to plague him ever since his moisture shield disappeared. With the models indicating a possible southerly component to his motion at 4/5 days, I think it's entirely possible he'll scoot through the Windward Passage, but moving into, instead of out of, the Caribbean as we were thinking might happen a few days back.

With regard to my forecast yesterday of Hurricane Dorian at 11:00 PM, I put too much stock into a small storm with a retreating moisture shield entering into an unfavorable environment. I recognize my mistake, and I certainly won't be doing anything like that again any time soon.
Quoting 2635. 62901IL:

Where'd you find that???????

Link



Not sure how much of a problem the trades are for Dorian but you can sure see em moving westward... Haulin...
2649. barbamz
Quoting 2626. Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Dorian Struggling More Today - Long-term Future Still Uncertain


Very prudent. Thanks, Levi!
2650. 62901IL
Quoting 2647. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Link

Thanks!!!!
Quoting 2627. CaneHunter031472:


High SSTs?



You do understand that this an anomaly map, not a true temperature map, and is therefore very misleading when talking about true water temperatures. If you really want to prove a point about the true water temperatures not being warm, then post the true temperature map, not the anomaly map.
Quoting 2642. Grothar:


Scary, but I remember reading that.


I wasnt even born 0____0
Quoting 2630. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just FWIW, this is the advisory for Andrew the morning it very nearly died


Sure sounds like what Dorian is doing and similar to his forecast track....although I highly highly doubt this will get a chance to increase windspeeds to a triple digit number in its lifetime.
2654. Grothar
Quoting 2626. Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Dorian Struggling More Today - Long-term Future Still Uncertain


Very good one today. I'm almost tempted to plus it. I also believe the GFS is to far South. I have maintained for 4 days it would move North of Hispaniola. After that?????
2655. Grothar
Quoting 2652. weatherh98:


I wasnt even born 0____0


That was the year I retired. (you little twit) :)
Dorian is literally on his death bed.Why the Andrew comparisons?.This won't be the next cat 5 to hit the U.S. I can assure you that.All they have in common is that they were weak beaten up storms,That's it! I don't think he'll make such a strong comeback.Future doesn't look bright for Dorian either with land entanglement with shear along with dry air.Such a beautiful name wasted..
Looks like Dorian may have survived...for now. ADT numbers are rebounding and the weakening flag is now off. Short-term change?
2658. Grothar
Quoting 2633. barbamz:


Not looking too bad, on one side, lol.

Dorian Gray


Close, but I have violet eyes, not blue. :)
Quoting 2656. washingtonian115:
Dorian is literally on his death bed.Why the Andrew comparisons?.This won't be the next cat 5 to hit the U.S. I can assure you that.All they have in common is that they were weak beaten up storms,That's it! I don't think he'll make such a strong comeback.Future doesn't look bright for Dorian either with land entanglement with shear along with dry air.Such a beautiful name wasted..


I think we all know(except the persistent wishcasters) that Dorian will not come anywhere close to the intensity of Andrew...the comparisons come from track, current strength and long-range uncertainty.
It was expected for Dorian to significantly be affected by dry air once it detached from the ITCZ which it did. Dorian will struggle from now on, but if it moisturizes its surroundings, I could see some restrengthening and restructuring south of the Bahamas. Looking at the Bermuda high setup I am very doubtful of Dorian making a turn to the North especially if it continues to move as a weakened storm. I think that dissipation due to interaction with Cuba is the most plausible scenario and the NHC could be updating their track soon to be in better agreement with the latest GFS run if the next run confirms this. Two more plausible scenarios are A. It enters the GOMEX or B. It hits South Florida. SSTs in the GOMEX are not very conducive for development. Its a very grim future for Dorian. One thing is for sure. If the Bermuda high continues to perform the way it has been performing these past few months, we could get more vigorous systems tracking toward the Eastern US and even perhaps the GOMEX in September during the peak of the season. This setup is definitely not conducive for fish storms
2661. JRRP
Dorian looks like a TD or 40mph TS
It's not dead/dying right now.
Andrew happened in august though this is July and the only reason why it was a beat up storm was thanks to the El nino that year.
2665. Levi32
Storms like Chantal and Dorian can be rather maddening to forecast due to their small size in environments that are neither overwhelmingly favorable nor unfavorable (well Chantal's was pretty unfavorable). The result is an unstable situation wherein the storm could fall apart or intensify, often due to small changes that can go unseen by forecasters or the models. The good news right now is that Dorian is a tropical storm, not a hurricane, and therefore not the biggest worry for the Caribbean islands at this time.
2666. flcanes
Quoting 2665. Levi32:
Storms like Chantal and Dorian can be rather maddening to forecast due to their small size in environments that are neither overwhelmingly favorable nor unfavorable. The result is an unstable situation wherein the storm could fall apart or intensify, often due to small changes that can go unseen by forecasters or the models. The good news right now is that Dorian is a tropical storm, not a hurricane, and therefore not the biggest worry for the Caribbean islands at this time.

Thanks for the tidbit!
Current sea surface temperature map below.

That cool pool CSU was worried about has pretty much disappeared for the time being. The East Atlantic has also become much warmer. We'll see how long both of these trends last.

Like Dr. Neil Frank (Director of the NHC from 1974 to 1985) used to say, A Hurricane or Tropical Storm hitting anywhere along the coast from Brownville to New England is always a relatively rare event all in itself. It's not a common event nor has it ever been to experience a land-falling Hurricane anywhere in the United States. A lot of you people are talking as if this type of thing happens all of the time. Just the fact that Dorian is still a tropical Storm and not an open wave is rare in itself.
2669. Grothar
These are the waves VR46L has been trying to claim.

Quoting 2665. Levi32:
Storms like Chantal and Dorian can be rather maddening to forecast due to their small size in environments that are neither overwhelmingly favorable nor unfavorable (well Chantal's was pretty unfavorable). The result is an unstable situation wherein the storm could fall apart or intensify, often due to small changes that can go unseen by forecasters or the models. The good news right now is that Dorian is a tropical storm, not a hurricane, and therefore not the biggest worry for the Caribbean islands at this time.


Is Dorian's small size the reason the NAVGEM, ECMWF and CMC do not initiate the system correctly?
Thanks Levi, Very informative.
Quoting 2626. Levi32:
Good morning.

Blog update:

Dorian Struggling More Today - Long-term Future Still Uncertain
2672. flcanes
Quoting 2667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current sea surface temperature map below.

That cool pool CSU was worried about has pretty much disappeared for the time being. The East Atlantic has also become much warmer. We'll see how long both of these trends last.


Um, those are anomalies
I'm somewhat but not overly surprised about Dorian's current situation, as the upper level westerlies are quite intense to the west northwest of his current position. Two areas of convection over eastern Atlantic are involved with a strong vorticity at 850mb.
Quoting 2655. Grothar:


That was the year I retired. (you little twit) :)



21 years removed from the work force congrats:)
2675. barbamz
2676. flcanes
Quoting 2670. SPLbeater:


Is Dorian's small size the reason the NAVGEM, ECMWF and CMC do not initiate the system correctly?

Possibly.
2677. JRRP
2678. Levi32
Quoting 2670. SPLbeater:


Is Dorian's small size the reason the NAVGEM, ECMWF and CMC do not initiate the system correctly?


That is likely true, though it shouldn't be true. The GFS has had no problems initializing Dorian. The ECMWF shouldn't have any problems either. That said, given Dorian's appearance this morning, the ECMWF initialization likely won't be as inaccurate today.
Quoting 2667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current sea surface temperature map below.

That cool pool CSU was worried about has pretty much disappeared for the time being. The East Atlantic has also become much warmer. We'll see how long both of these trends last.



What was CSU concerned with?
Quoting kmanislander:


That was last night's pass. More like 12 hours old.



Wanna check that again....

It does say Jul 26 15:06 UTC 2013

Current UTC is Jul 26 15:30 2013

I know this is kind of a crazy unrealistic path especially compared to the current models. But if those models were to flip again, and Dorian were to do her worst for South Florida, this is what I would expect worst case scenario.
2682. flcanes
Quoting 2678. Levi32:


That is likely true, though it shouldn't be true. The GFS has had no problems initializing Dorian. The ECMWF shouldn't have any problems either.

This really wasnt happening with Chantal either
Is the new burst of convection over the center or is it just part of the chaos?
Good morning/afternoon all.

GFS is running now out to 12 hrs.

Quoting 2672. flcanes:

Um, those are anomalies

...yeah. I know lol.

Quoting 2679. weatherh98:


What was CSU concerned with?

The area of cool water southeast of the Azores bleeding south into the East Atlantic.
Thank You TropicalAnalyst , I knew I was right in someway , with the comparisons , between the two storms , that advisory on Andrew is very eerie , sounds very much like what is going on with Dorian ! Very SCARY !
2687. barbamz
Quoting 2678. Levi32:


That is likely true, though it shouldn't be true. The GFS has had no problems initializing Dorian. The ECMWF shouldn't have any problems either. That said, given Dorian's appearance this morning, the ECMWF initialization likely won't be as inaccurate today.


Levi, do you have any idea, why a model like ECMWF would miss to initialize such a system which is sticking around for some days already? They must have the data.
Quoting 2651. HurricaneDevo:


You do understand that this an anomaly map, not a true temperature map, and is therefore very misleading when talking about true water temperatures. If you really want to prove a point about the true water temperatures not being warm, then post the true temperature map, not the anomaly map.


Exactly, temps in the GOM have risen enough recently to easily support a stopical system and strengthen it. That anomaly map is very misleading.

Quoting 2630. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just FWIW, this is the advisory for Andrew the morning it very nearly died:

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

ANDREW CONTINUES TO BE POORLY ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE
ARE NO BANDING FEATURES...ONLY INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION
WHICH CONTINUE TO BE SHEARED NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ESTIMATED
CENTER. THE CREW OF THE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO LOCATE A
CENTER...HOWEVER A 54 KNOT WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE 5000 FT
FLIGHT LEVEL IN AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION. WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE FIRST DAYLIGHT RECON TO
DETERMINE WHETHER A CLOSED CIRCULATION STILL EXISTS ON THE SURFACE.

THE LATEST AVN RUN OF THE NMC GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL...AS IN PREVIOUS
RUNS...INSISTS THAT THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
MUCH MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF ANDREW
CAN SURVIVE UNTIL THAT TIME. IT IS ALSO WORTHWHILE TO NOTE THAT THE
INITIAL STATE OF THE AVN MODEL WINDS AT 200 MB LOOK REALISTIC IN
COMPARISON TO OBSERVED CIRRUS LEVEL MOTIONS AROUND THE STORM. THIS
MIGHT GIVE SOME CREDIBILITY TO THE MODEL FORECAST. AGAIN...THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL WITHSTAND THE SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEARING FOR MUCH LONGER.

THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ABOUT THE SAME AS SIX
HOURS EARLIER...IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE IS A
SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD BETWEEN THE MORE STATISTICALLY-BASED OBJECTIVE
AIDS...NHC90 AND CLIPER...AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...QLM AND BAM.
THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE TURNS ANDREW MORE NORTHWARD. THE AVN MODEL
PREDICTS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
THIS WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME AS SHOWN BY THE
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. THE OFFICAL FORECAST...AS BEFORE...IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO BUT LEANS MORE TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE.

PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0900Z 21.0N 61.0W 40 KTS
12HR VT 20/1800Z 22.2N 62.7W 40 KTS
24HR VT 21/0600Z 23.3N 64.7W 45 KTS
36HR VT 21/1800Z 24.3N 66.4W 50 KTS
48HR VT 22/0600Z 24.8N 68.0W 55 KTS
72HR VT 23/0600Z 25.5N 70.0W 55 KTS


Wow. Forecaster Pasch has been at this for a long time :-)
This is an ASCAT pass from a little over two hours ago. Very barely closed. We'll see what happens.

Quoting 2680. AussieStorm:



Wanna check that again....

It does say Jul 26 15:06 UTC 2013

Current UTC is Jul 26 15:24 2013



The time stamp in purple at the bottom is what you need to look at. Here is the current ASCAT just out. Dorian still closed but almost open on the South side.

Quoting 2671. eyesontheweather:
Thanks Levi, Very informative.
Thank you Levi.........Me and the gang huddle around my desk when I say "Levi has a new Tidbit"...We all listen to you with open ears.. Thanks Levi
Quoting 2667. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Current sea surface temperature map below.

That cool pool CSU was worried about has pretty much disappeared for the time being. The East Atlantic has also become much warmer. We'll see how long both of these trends last.



In fact,TSR went down in the numbers by one because of the cooler waters.


SSTs are not very conducive for intensification





Wind shear ahead is not optimal neither

Also note how cloud free the GOM is now compared the past few weeks, nothing but sunshine reaching the waters now to heat it up!

2690. TropicalAnalystwx13

LOL. Posted same thing at the same time !
Quoting 2680. AussieStorm:



Wanna check that again....

It does say Jul 26 15:06 UTC 2013

Current UTC is Jul 26 15:24 2013

you do know the actual time is on the bottom of the image in purple color
Quoting kmanislander:


The time stamp in purple at the bottom is what you need to look at. Here is the current ASCAT just out. Dorian still closed but almost open on the South side.



I've learnt something new today.
Now I should really get to bed.
Quoting 2698. AussieStorm:


I've learnt something new today.
Now I should really get to bed.
Good night Aussie
Quoting 2698. AussieStorm:


I've learnt something new today.
Now I should really get to bed.


Not to worry. We all learn something new at some time on here.
wow!!
Quoting 2685. TropicalAnalystwx13:

...yeah. I know lol.


The area of cool water southeast of the Azores bleeding south into the East Atlantic.


Gotcha

The anoms in march looked so promising too. If we had those anomalies now through September this would be a rare year indead (as it still may be)
07/26/2013 Daily Update - GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

This is a long loop animation from the GOES East Infrared Hurricane Sector imagery. Featured are the death of TS Chantal and the track conditions ahead of TS Dorian, including tracking forecasts by the NHC for 7/25/2013 and 7/26/2013.

2704. Levi32
Quoting 2687. barbamz:


Levi, do you have any idea, why a model like ECMWF would miss to initialize such a system which is sticking around for some days already? They must have the data.


I'm not a designer of the model so I'm not familiar enough with its initialization schemes to know. It is also possible that NCEP "forces" the GFS to more aptly represent tropical cyclones that have estimated intensities and positions from the NHC. I believe the position of the low in the GFS is forced to the NHC position, but I'm not sure about a bogus vortex.
Quoting 2694. CaneHunter031472:


SSTs are not very conducive for intensification





Wind shear ahead is not optimal neither



An anomaly map is NOT an indication of whether surface temps can support a tropical system. Trust me the SST's ahead of Dorian are more than capable of supporting a tropical system.

Why is everyon using SST anomaly maps for real temperatures? Inaccurate. This is a 7 day analysis, which shows Dorian is headed for more favorable waters. It's also the only thing going good for him right now...

Quoting 2675. barbamz:
Those waves are trying to form an invest.
Right now Dorian isn't much more then a couple of afternoon summertime thunderstorms being held together by scotch tape. Most of the time the month of July is a dead period with nothing more then a few waves traversing the Atlantic.
2709. tj175
By early August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h).[4] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum[5] and as the storm turned to the northwest, increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[2] On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center[6] and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (30.0 inHg). The flight indicated Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft, with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) recorded at flight level. Subsequently, the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, which decreased the wind shear over the storm. Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.


Not saying Dorian is an Andrew and no way shape or form but don't count this small system out just yet.
Quoting 2687. barbamz:


Levi, do you have any idea, why a model like ECMWF would miss to initialize such a system which is sticking around for some days already? They must have the data.






There have been resolution updates to the ECMWF but I believe it still does not insert any type of "bogus" TC at initialization. Other global models due insert a TC with NHC specified data, that is why the recent GFS showed 999 MB at initialization.
42 hrs.

latest from Canada

2714. LargoFl
Quoting 2681. opal92nwf:
I know this is kind of a crazy unrealistic path especially compared to the current models. But if those models were to flip again, and Dorian were to do her worst for South Florida, this is what I would expect worst case scenario.
that path was given by the canadian GEM model many days ago with the exception that dorian recurved into central florida out into the atlantic..and another model earlier had the same path..up the gulf coastline all the way into Tenn...so its not out of the question should dorian get Into the gulf..and the gulfstream waters are quite warm

Above Average.
Quoting 2681. opal92nwf:
I know this is kind of a crazy unrealistic path especially compared to the current models. But if those models were to flip again, and Dorian were to do her worst for South Florida, this is what I would expect worst case scenario.

Remember this^^^^...... Time for me to eat breakfast and get out of bed, see you all later
2717. LargoFl
notice most of models now miss the huge mountains........
Quoting 2694. CaneHunter031472:


SSTs are not very conducive for intensification





Wind shear ahead is not optimal neither



Don't use SST anomaly maps for reading water temps. They are very misleading.

Actually shows Dorian moving into warmer waters. Small systems like this do react quickly to warmer water temperatures.



Given however, that there may be wind shear around, it will be a nip and tough type of situation where it will more or less, hold its own over the next couple of days. And in regards to the shear, we will just have to see how much that upper level trough weakens to determine how much the shear has relaxed once Dorian enters that area.
I will be laughing out loud , when Dorian pulls an Andrew on us . How does everybody like there crow pie , you all will be eating! Gloria Gaynor song , I Will Survive ! That's Dorian !


Gulf and carribean cooler than average :/ first time I've seen that in while
2721. Times2
Quoting 2663. CaneHunter031472:

.
Tha patch of dry air seems to be running form him....
2722. barbamz
Quoting 2704. Levi32:


I'm not a designer of the model so I'm not familiar enough with its initialization schemes to know. It is also possible that NCEP "forces" the GFS to more aptly represent tropical cyclones that have estimated intensities and positions from the NHC. I believe the position of the low in the GFS is forced to the NHC position, but I'm not sure about a bogus vortex.


Thank you! And I've learned something new:

bogus vortex
A representation of a tropical vortex based on a blend of observed surface winds and typical tropical storm wind profiles.

Because of limited observations and coarse model resolution for the production of background fields, tropical cyclones are often poorly resolved in operational analyses. To alleviate this problem, a bogus vortex can be used in the analysis of tropical cyclones both in global data assimilation systems and for initial conditions of limited area, high-resolution hurricane models.
Hi Levi. Apart from Dorian, is the anything that might develop as we enter August? I guess the bigger question is how will the environmental conditions be for ASO in terms of the dry air,the TUTT trough oriented etc? What is the latest MJO forecast?
66 hrs. if it can hold together by this time it wil really come down to the ULL and its position or strength of that ULL as to whether wind shear will be high or low.

2725. sar2401
Quoting tj175:
By early August 18, the storm maintained concentrated convection near the center with spiral bands to its west as the winds increased to 50 mph (80 km/h).[4] Shortly thereafter the thunderstorms decreased markedly during the diurnal minimum[5] and as the storm turned to the northwest, increased southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level low prevented Andrew from maintaining deep convection.[2] On August 19, a Hurricane Hunters flight into the storm failed to locate a well-defined center[6] and on the following day, a flight found that the cyclone had degenerated to the extent that only a diffuse low-level circulation center remained; observations indicated the pressure rose to an unusually high 1,015 mbar (30.0 inHg). The flight indicated Andrew maintained a vigorous circulation aloft, with winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) recorded at flight level. Subsequently, the upper-level low weakened and split into a trough, which decreased the wind shear over the storm. Simultaneously, a strong high pressure cell developed over the southeastern United States, which built eastward and caused Andrew to turn to the west.


Not saying Dorian is an Andrew and no way shape or form but don't count this small system out just yet.

Andrew had way different condition than what Dorian faces. Of course, it's not impossible for Dorian to become an Andrew, but it's also not impossible that you could win the lottery today. The chances of both are about the same. :-)
thank you levi

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2013/07/26/do rian-struggling-more-today-long-term-future-still- uncertain/

it is good to see that there remains some sort of sanity and scientific method in this blog.....


ironically, i bet levi is good at playing darts in real life.....because he is calm, methodical, and patient.....makes for a good aim....


again ty levi.....good to see your still around.....

have a good weekend everyone
With all these weak not mounting to nothing storms going on, this blog is having "summa summa, summertime... summertime sadness"...
2728. SLU
lots of convection off africa
2729. LafLA
Quoting 2720. weatherh98:


Gulf and carribean cooler than average :/ first time I've seen that in while


Not sure why... I fish offshore Louisiana and about 75 miles out the water temp was 91 degrees 3 weeks ago. The water in the GOM is hot.
78 hrs.

here's your song for the day via YouTube....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdBcfRhzzAA

toto....
Quoting 2727. RitaEvac:
With all these weak not mounting to nothing storms going on, this blog is having "summa summa, summertime sadness"...

Still got that song in your head Michael. :)
2734. LargoFl
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
1100 AM AST FRI JUL 26 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DORIAN IS
RATHER DISORGANIZED...WITH LITTLE OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING
FEATURES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 45 KT IN
AGREEMENT WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A RECENT ASCAT
OVERPASS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA
INDICATE THAT DORIAN WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRY AIR OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO AND THIS...ALONG WITH MODERATE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR...SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. LATER
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ONLY A LITTLE BELOW THE STATISTICAL-
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...WHICH IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE...IS THAT DORIAN COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL WAVE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE FLOW
SOUTH OF A STRONG MID- TO LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA. THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD TO THE
NORTH OF DORIAN...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF WEST THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NHC TRACK AND LEANS TOWARD THE GFS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO...BUT A LITTLE SLOWER THAN...THE FLORIDA
STATE UNIVERSITY SUPERENSEMBLE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 17.7N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.1N 46.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.7N 50.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 19.2N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 19.7N 58.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 20.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 20.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 21.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Quoting 2727. RitaEvac:
With all these weak not mounting to nothing storms going on, this blog is having "summa summa, summertime... summertime sadness"...
I'm just suffering from weak storm syndrome..
Quoting 2727. RitaEvac:
With all these weak not mounting to nothing storms going on, this blog is having "summa summa, summertime sadness"...


"Sometimes I wonder, what im gonna do, cause there aint no cure for the summertime blues" :D
Quoting 2733. SouthernIllinois:

Still got that song in your head Michael. :)


On the radio again! becoming a summer time classic, lol
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2739. wxmod
Greenland will be in FULL MELT DOWN today, all the way to the highest peaks.

Dorian isnt looking too good.. small system like that isnt likely to survive this early out there
If anything that pesky ULL will keep Dorian from reorganizing.

2742. Levi32
Quoting 2723. Tropicsweatherpr:
Hi Levi. Apart from Dorian, is the anything that might develop as we enter August? I guess the bigger question is how will the environmental conditions be for ASO in terms of the dry air,the TUTT trough oriented etc? What is the latest MJO forecast?


The GFS and ECMWF still show the MJO moving into phase 1 or 2 during the next 2 weeks, which would make the Atlantic more favorable. No storms are showing up on the models though.

Quoting 2737. RitaEvac:


On the radio again! becoming a summer time classic, lol

I know right! Last year it was Call Me Maybe!! haha
2744. sar2401
Quoting barbamz:


Thank you! And I've learned something new:

bogus vortex
A representation of a tropical vortex based on a blend of observed surface winds and typical tropical storm wind profiles.

Because of limited observations and coarse model resolution for the production of background fields, tropical cyclones are often poorly resolved in operational analyses. To alleviate this problem, a bogus vortex can be used in the analysis of tropical cyclones both in global data assimilation systems and for initial conditions of limited area, high-resolution hurricane models.

Good morning/afternoon, Barb. The whole bogus vortex issue is why I just don't get too interested in track or intensity until the Hurricane Hunters can fly and get some real information. I don't think most people realize that most models except the Euro initialize off the "best guess" the NHC can make based on satellite estimates, and that's why we often get screwy results for storms way out in the Atlantic.
Looks like he is getting ready to take in a huge swath of dry air. IMO, next 24hrs define his future.
Quoting 2745. MonsterTrough:
Looks like he is getting ready to take in a huge swath of dry air. IMO, next 24hrs define his future.
Can you keep the hurricanes away this season?.Thanks :).
Quoting 2694. CaneHunter031472:


SSTs are not very conducive for intensification





Wind shear ahead is not optimal neither



Again with the anomaly maps? Why do you not use the real temperature maps when making these points?
Quoting 2747. HurricaneDevo:


Again with the anomaly maps? Why do you not use the real temperature maps when making these points?




There you go. Let's hope Dorian doesn't make it to the Gulf then.