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Little change to Domincan Republic disturbance 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:46 PM GMT on September 23, 2008

Tropical disturbance 93L continues to hang out just inland along the northeast coast of the Dominican Republic, and is not a hurry to go anywhere. Dominican Republic radar shows a broad circulation with a large area rain, but the rain is not organized into low-level rain bands, and is mostly to the southeast. Visible satellite loops show very little heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of 93L, near the northeast coast of Hispaniola. The heavy thunderstorm activity is mostly to the south and east, but there are no signs that the center of 93L will relocate itself under the heavy thunderstorm activity, and I do not expect this to happen. The thunderstorm activity is displaced to the southeast because strong upper-level winds from the west are pushing the thunderstorms away from the west side of the storm. The wind shear remains about 15 knots, which is marginal for tropical storm development.

The record rains of 93L--as much as 24 inches in 24 hours--have left a gigantic mess in Puerto Rico. Several highways are blocked by flood waters and landslides, and one bridge was washed out in Guayanilla by a flooded river. All but two rivers have fallen below flood stage this morning, and the worst of the rains and flooding are done. Damage to agriculture in Puerto Rico from the storm has been estimated at $14 million.

In the Dominican Republic, heavy rain has been limited to the extreme eastern end, near Punta Cana, where satellite estimates indicate up to six inches of rain has fallen. Rainfall in the capital, Santo Domingo, has been less than an inch, according to three personal weather stations there. Additional heavy rains of 4-8 inches are likely today and Wednesday in many portions of the Dominican Republic from 93L.

Haiti has thus far escaped heavy rains from 93L. It will be a close call, but I believe Haiti will only receive 2-4 inches of rain from 93L, except for the extreme northeastern part of the country near the Dominican Republic border, where 3-6 inches may fall. Highest rains in the Turk and Caicos islands and southeastern Bahamas should be in the 3-6 inch range.


Figure 1. Rainfall rate from 93L as estimated by microwave satellite imagery at 6:30 am EDT 9/23/08. The heaviest rains of 1.4 inches per hour were just south of the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

The forecast
Well, 93L has not done what we expected, and continues to resist the models' efforts to pull it to the north. The northward turn has been delayed by about a day behind what the models originally forecast, likely delaying the eventual impact of 93L on New England until Saturday. I have no choice but to continue to forecast that 93L will turn to the north in the next 24 hours. A developing coastal storm off the coast of North Carolina should impart enough of a northward motion in the steering currents to make this happen. Wind shear over 93L has also refused to obey model forecasts, and remains at a higher-than-expected 15 knots. The current wind shear forecast from the SHIPS model keeps the shear at 15-20 knots for the remainder of the week. Other models show lower shear, but intensification of 93L into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane later this week, as has been consistently forecast by the GFDL and HWRF models, is probably overdone. There is also a large amount of dry air to the northwest of 93L that will probably interfere with development.

The models are now in fairly good agreement that a strong coastal storm--which could be extratropical or subtropical--will develop off the coastal of North Carolina today. This low will probably bring winds near 40 mph to the coastal waters of North Carolina on Wednesday. As 93L is drawn northwards, the two storms will probably rotate cyclonically around a common center (the Fujiwhara effect), sending 93L hurtling into the coast somewhere between North Carolina and Nova Scotia. Considering that we are trying to forecast a complicated interaction between a storm that hasn't formed yet and another storm that refuses to obey the forecast models, confidence in the forecasts for both of these storms is low. Residents along the entire U.S. and Canadian coast from Georgia to Nova Scotia should anticipate the possibility of tropical storm conditions this week. In Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, this would likely be due to the extratropical low pressure system. New England may get a 1-2 punch on Saturday and Sunday: a tropical storm, followed by heavy rains drawn up from the south from the remnants of the extratropical storm.

Links to follow
Dominican Republic radar
Puerto Rico radar
Video of a boat that weathered Hurricane Ike in Galveston Bay

The Hurricane Ike "NEXT TRUCK CHALLENGE" continues
Two wunderground members, presslord and violet312s, have announced that they will match two dollars for every dollar in contributions made to portlight.org. This charity has really made a difference in some of the hard-hit areas of Texas and Louisiana affected by Hurricane Ike neglected by the traditional relief efforts. A quote from Paul Timmons (AKA Presslord), who has helped coordinate this effort:

My wife just called...they will NOT be staying in Bridge City. They unloaded half the truck there, and the folks from Winnie TX (on the Bolivar Peninsula) called by radio and begged them to bring the rest of the supplies there. So, they are on the road to Winnie, where they will stay at the fire house in the dark. She and SJ are in tears...my wife quoted one of the Bridge City officials: "Thank God for y'all.


Figure 2. A Florida fireman sits behind supplies that Portlight Strategies delivered to the Winnie-Stowell fire station. Image credit: Storm Junkie.

Your contributions do make a difference, and you can read more about the effort at at stormjunkie's blog.

I'll have an update later today, after the Hurricane Hunters have had a chance to check out the storm.

Jeff Masters
Winnie Ike Damage
Winnie Ike Damage
Picture speaks for itself...
Could not do it...
Could not do it...
After dropping some supplies at the Bridge City Fire Department, we chatted with the fireman for a little while. One brought up Bolivar. I asked if they really wanted to see the pictures. I sat, and brought up "The short but eventful life of Ike" pictures. As I started to show them the pictures I realized that I could not do it. Showing the pictures, for the first time, to the men and women who have years of family vacation memories was just too much and it was not my place. They are going to have to deal with this as a community for a long time to come. It takes a lot to make me cry.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

93L - where exactly is the COC on this thing? i'm confused. and no, i still don't understand all the terminology that is used here so forgive me for what probably seems like a stupid question.
hey guys
got some cool rain here in south florida
the storms brought very cold rain and wind
is this a cold front?
Last few hours of 93L it is really losing it's convection and spreading out substantially. Cloud tops are warming. Interesting that it is weakening at this point.
woohoo
dipping into the low 70s on thursday!
lol
Hmmm...no 5pm update.
Quoting billy305:
woohoo
dipping into the low 70s on thursday!
lol
Global warming at its finest. LOL
Quoting 69Viking:
416. hurricane23

Awesome, after that trough passes some beautifully dry weather here in NW Florida, lows of 65, 60, and 61 for the next 3 days along the coast, into the 50's north away from the coast!

The way troughs kept getting the GOM this year I have a feeling this could be a cooler than normal fall and winter for Florida. Perfect weather for the upcoming hunting season!


Sounds GREAT to me... I am SOOOO looking forward to some cool weather.
508. Mikla
This is a good link.
Quoting NorthxCakalaky:
Whats the difference of a extra tropical and a subtropical storm?

(Anyone have a link?)

onamet radar seems to show a new stronger llc south of dr taking the place of the one that is possibly dissipating....
(IMO)
Isn't it nice the way the spaghetti is all in agreement as to where 92 is going??

And yesterday they all had it going into the mid-Atlantic.

Tomorrow??
conchy girl we are getting some of that frontal weather now, earth shaking thunder and lightning quite the show and god seems to have turned the AC on for us down here, LOL :)
harleychick:

Officially it's at 19N/70W, but other info says more like 18N/69W.

You can find the info on WU under tropical weather. Click on coordinates.

Link
Quoting 69Viking:
416. hurricane23

Awesome, after that trough passes some beautifully dry weather here in NW Florida, lows of 65, 60, and 61 for the next 3 days along the coast, into the 50's north away from the coast!

The way troughs kept getting the GOM this year I have a feeling this could be a cooler than normal fall and winter for Florida. Perfect weather for the upcoming hunting season!


Sounds GREAT to me... I am SOOOO looking forward to some cool weather

wat does that mean for South Florida
Link

press inna dress
Buoy 42058 at 15N 75W has a W wind and falling pressure of 1008.5

Whoa.. easy trigger.(goddess4noel) Kyle isnt even born yet. He is still just a little embryo with PLENTY of time to watch
They said a below average temperature winter so temps around 25-30 for lows 1-2 times this winter ins't out of the question.
interesting
519. JRRP
Un niño muere intentando cruzar un rio entre El Seibo y La Romana
woah at 15 north so i suspect the center is around 1005 or less by now.
in south Florida
0.0
for real!?
Quoting fortyish:
i will try this again, can anyone tell me where the line is drawn, from highpressure/lowpressure in milibars. is it above 1000 considered high pressure? it would be nice to know. thanks in advance anyone who knows.


Someone answered earlier that it is about 1012/1013 - the dividing line between high and low pressure.
93L is going to hide behind the mountains till the trough clears, lol. Move along, nothing to see here.
Quoting will40:
Link

press inna dress


LOL..
524. RMM34667

he gonna kill me
526. JRRP
A child dies trying to cross a river between El Seibo and La Romana
Quoting HeliChopper:
Finally back online;

Has there been a detailed mapping of the actual track that Ike took?


I guess not, or, nobody cares. Oh well.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
93L is going to hide behind the mountains till the trough clears, lol. Move along, nothing to see here.


Woa, I see 93L moving north now.
I say we are likely to see a trend back to the west on the next model runs. Thats a pretty far shift east from this morning
93L is supposed to be to 23N tomorrow, better get a move on.
It happend once last winter billy I think the low was 30-33 degrees. When I woke up however it was at 45 degrees around 10:00 am.
Quoting JRRP:
Un niño muere intentando cruzar un rio entre El Seibo y La Romana


A child dies trying to cross a river between El Seibo and La Romana
533. Mikla
A quick google found this

Quoting HeliChopper:


I guess not, or, nobody cares. Oh well.
After a short time i went out Hagupit made landfall apparently between Yangjiang and Maoming, what about the landfall intensity: cat 3 or 4? I'm still in doubt, the regional weather centers of both Macau and Hong Kong don't talk about storm category, they just say: tropical storm, severe tropical storm or typhoon.
Back...

Let's hope the HH heading out to 93L from Tampa won't experience the same issues as the last one.
523. lol
Sorry, 22N now, they just updated.

$$
AMZ088-240330-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL TROUGH 31N74W TO 25N79W THROUGH WED MOVES TO
31N75W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND BECOMES DIFFUSE FRI. STORM
CENTER N OF AREA MOVES W TO NW TO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE THU.
LOW OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 1008 MB DRIFTS NORTH AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOW MOVES TO 22N69W
WED...26N70W THU AND 31N70W FRI AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH. WEAK
RIDGE BUILD ALONG 25N SAT BEHIND TROUGH AND LOW.
Quoting WxLogic:
Back...

Let's hope the HH heading out to 93L from Tampa won't experience the same issues as the last one.


What issues did they encounter? thanks
That system SE of North Carolina is the precuror system for that nor'easter. Also, notice that frontal convective blob northeast of Bermuda? Run it on the computer models, and you will see that the models are agreeing on it intensifying near the Azores, then possibly turning back west to hit Atlantic Canada (I'm guessing Nova Scotia)!
actually....I think I'm pretty hot.....
Someone answered earlier that it is about 1012/1013 - the dividing line between high and low pressure.

When talking about pressure, understand that pressure is relative to its surrounding environment....The bigger the pressure change over a fixed distance, the stronger the pressure gradient....Stronger gradients lead to faster wind speeds due to the pressure gradient force(acceleration caused by the gradient, from higher to lower pressure)....
540. presslord i cuda picked a better color dont you think lol?
Quoting HeliChopper:


I guess not, or, nobody cares. Oh well.


Link

That?
Quoting Mikla:
A quick google found this



Thanks Mikla, Thought my posts weren't posting (G).

Actually looking for something down to the Area Level. We have some conflicting reports.
Press.. I have a buddy who is your twin.. name of Bob P. When I first saw your pic, I thought it WAS him for the first second... You are doing good work brother, there isn't much of a higher calling than helping your fellow man. Well done.
Quoting RMM34667:


What issues did they encounter? thanks


Not sure... but they stopped reporting for some reason.
Press if it gets another single dollar i will be happy.
P-3 Orion(42) is on it way for a research mission. I see we got totally left in the dark last flight. Looks maybe a tad less organized & the markets have closed...wonder if we get to watch this flight.
Hey Presslord -- now I always figured you to be the Captain Jack Sparrow type....gnarly, salty & a bit untamed........ this outfit disoriented me a bit....ROTFL
Geeze -- Dress up like Captain Jack Sparrow --wave a sword.... you'll see "cha-ching"

Direct Donations to People in need - help those who have suffered the wrath of IKE
www.portlight.org
Quoting presslord:
actually....I think I'm pretty hot.....
hey come down here the AC is on, :)
The MLC spin looks good wonder if the LLC in DR will just keep going and leave its convection behinds with the MLC and that will develop.
Quoting HeliChopper:


I guess not, or, nobody cares. Oh well.


Link
Really hoping that Mother Nature does NOT send Kyle to NY to clean up/out the mess on WallStreet
Quoting Cotillion:


Link

That?


Best yet, Thanks.
helichop~ here's an Ike path from TRMM with rainfall amounts included.
Drak or anyone super smart on here... If the mid-level vorticity appears on sattelite to be to the south of Hispaniola, why does it appear on CIMSS that it is more north than the LLC? The LLC on CIMSS has remained constant over DR while the MLC has shifted north. Wasn't the anticyclone predicted to move in tandem with 93L? Because the anti-cyclone has moved south of Hispaniola.
Quoting presslord:
actually....I think I'm pretty hot.....I have deleted Charlstown from my Tom-Tom!
LMAO I cannot wait to see Press in a Dress! Gnarly or frilly... its gonna be good! he!he!he!
Quoting surfmom:
Geeze -- Dress up like Captain Jack Sparrow --wave a sword.... you'll see "cha-ching"

Direct Donations to People in need - help those who have suffered the wrath of IKE
www.portlight.org
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Drak or anyone super smart on here... If the mid-level vorticity appears on sattelite to be to the south of Hispaniola, why does it appear on CIMSS that it is more north than the LLC? The LLC on CIMSS has remained constant over DR while the MLC has shifted north. Wasn't the anticyclone predicted to move in tandem with 93L? Because the anti-cyclone has moved south of Hispaniola.


ULAC not always moves in tandem with these system. If the system is strong enough to affect the atmosphere around it then you would typically see it hanging with the system... but with systems like this and the shear currently present to the N, makes it a bit hard for coupling to occur... just my .50 cents.
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Someone answered earlier that it is about 1012/1013 - the dividing line between high and low pressure.

When talking about pressure, understand that pressure is relative to its surrounding environment....The bigger the pressure change over a fixed distance, the stronger the pressure gradient....Stronger gradients lead to faster wind speeds due to the pressure gradient force(acceleration caused by the gradient, from higher to lower pressure)....



From post 342: It's relative to the ambient pressure of the environrment around it. We've seen 1012mb lows lotsa times.
on WU tropical page invest 93L movement N @ 0 mph? am I reading this correctly?
564. JRRP
Quoting nolesjeff:


A child dies trying to cross a river between El Seibo and La Romana

yeah, look at 526
Quoting Beachfoxx:
LMAO I cannot wait to see Press in a Dress! Gnarly or frilly... its gonna be good! he!he!he!




What'chall think? He gotta thong on underneath?
I more inclined to throw money at pirates w/breeches & swords....but till one shows up.....

Got Surf withdrawal - Summer is gone - but now beautiful dry weather -- blue skies - NE then N winds will remind us of Fall this week. -NO real surf, 1ft or less N windswell dev. late Wednes -- good for skimmers or desperate LongBoarders on Thursday AM - The EC of FL blows up, but it's messy
LMAO

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




What'chall think? He gotta thong on underneath?
Quoting WxLogic:


ULAC not always moves in tandem with these system. If the system is strong enough to affect the atmosphere around it then you would typically see it hanging with the system... but with systems like this and the shear currently present to the N, makes it a bit hard for coupling to occur... just my .50 cents.


Thanks. Any idea on the circulation differences?
That recon plane anywhere near 93L yet?
Recon should be there in 2-3 hours?
Quoting Engine2:
That recon plane anywhere near 93L yet?


Not yet... is currently in the Central Bahamas, near Young Island.
Good Evening Everybody!

Just wanted to say the real story for the US is going to revolve around the low off the east coast of North Carolina.

Sub-Tropical Development off the North Carolina Coastline

A very deep low pressure is forecast to form offshore east of Myrtle Beach, SC and move ashore late on Thursday or early Friday somewhere between the central South Carolina coastline and the central North Carolina coastline.

The combination of a central pressure around 980-985 mb (or similar to a strong Cat 1 hurricane) and a seasonally strong high pressure centered over the northeast US will bring sustained winds possibly approaching hurricane strength (74mph) to a long stretch of coastal area north of the landfall location, and will bring 50+mph sustained winds inland over the eastern half of North Carolina.

This system will evolve from a frontal system interacting with a strong trough, which is more typical of a extra-tropical system like a Nor'easter. However, the low itself will form in an area of relatively low shear in the trough axis, and it will be in a fairly unstable environment with only moderately warm SSTs (26-28°C) - but under fairly cold air aloft associated with the mid-latitude trough.

This instability should lead to some deep convection and combined with moderately low wind shear should allow the low pressure area to become more like a tropical system with a warm core. Even if they keep it designated as a sub-tropical storm, it would likely still get a name from the NHC.

Here is a view of the 48 hour model projection from this mornings WRF high res North American run. It shows a sub 984 mb low heading for the NC/SC border. You can also see the 1032 high over the Northeast US.

The strong pressure gradient between the two will lead to strong onshore flow with some strong surge/coastal erosion issues in vulnerable areas.



talk about markets crashing..
Gorgeous Weather today in SWFL - East of I75 good stiff breeze and LOW/NO humidity. Horses were in a great mood, seemed eager to hit the track- my son opened the ex-race horse (now polo pony) up. Tail high up , good stretch/reach -- he was thrilled to move -- and just go......been a long hot summer
weird Weather, Weird Economy......very strange times we are living in
It looks worse than it is but it still isn't good, thats a drop of 4% if the same happend on the US stock market it would drop from 10850 to 10416.
CatastrophicDL~ Shear & disorganization has it horribly stacked. A big system like this can tilt pretty far. As for the anticyclone on top~ land interaction can be pretty effective in decoupling those & leaving them behind. When Gustav crossed Cuba he left his behind for good. Good thing too, he had a big one.
Finally update on Hagupit cat 4, was similar to Charley as intensified before landfall (but much larger).
glaring hungry male(s) lurking - better head for the kitchen b/4 I have a Cat 4 in here! later tonight.

A Crash would be stocks falling 20% or more in a trading say although we are in a heavy ressesion right now.
SPECIAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT is out
How many times will it be copied to here?
Quoting CatastrophicDL:


Thanks. Any idea on the circulation differences?


That will be a good question... I'm inclide to say that due to the broad nature of this system that it's not being inialized correctly.
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/KNABB
Quoting Skyepony:
helichop~ here's an Ike path from TRMM with rainfall amounts included.


Thanks Sky... We've been thru just about every source available and seems that there has not been any area level plotting done yet.
Interesting wind shift at this bouy.

Is it me, or does the convection to the E look to be detaching?
Gotta go now. Everybody play nice!
Quoting Seastep:
Interesting wind shift at this bouy.

Is it me, or does the convection to the E look to be detaching?


SE, rather...
There's number 1.
Based on the Special Statement just issued... they did got a succesful run from the last HH... so that means they decided not to make the data public... I guess.
Quoting WxLogic:
Based on the Special Statement just issued... they did got a succesful run from the last HH... so that means they decided not to make the data public... I guess.


Or comms were down and they pulled the data after it returned home.
Quoting WxLogic:
Based on the Special Statement just issued... they did got a succesful run from the last HH... so that means they decided not to make the data public... I guess.


The conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this !
Quoting Seastep:


Or comms were down and they pulled the data after it returned home.


True...
Quoting kmanislander:


The conspiracy theorists will have a field day with this !


LMAO... I hope they just have a little picnic...
594. Mikla
Ok, I'll bite... what do you mean by "area level plotting"?
Quoting HeliChopper:


Thanks Sky... We've been thru just about every source available and seems that there has not been any area level plotting done yet.
Now that I have seen the steering currents the computer models have been forecasting materialize over the past 24 hours and this deep trough moving further south and east than expected, my confidence has increased significantly in the computer model runs and I now agree with them. Just doubted them before as the steering currents weren't supporting the computer model outputs.

But, in analyzing Invest 93L on satellite and radar imagery as well as surface observations (I haven't checked any Hurricane Hunter data and will not likely have time to go over them), it would appear that the system still remains rather disorganized with no defined low-level circulation and very ragged thunderstorm activity. Satellite offers the appearance that this could be nothing more than a ULL-induced surface trough that has been trying to gain tropical characteristics but has failed to in the presence of marginally favorable shear.

So, all in all, I'm now forecasting Invest 93L to begin its long-awaited march northward over the next 24 hours as it struggles to organize over Hispanola. Unlike pretty much all the models and the major consensus out there, I'm no longer calling for this to become a tropical storm as its energy and moisture will get entrained into the developing coastal storm.

Thats my analysis on Invest 93L tonight.
596. bwi
Quoting kmanislander:
Buoy 42058 at 15N 75W has a W wind and falling pressure of 1008.5



Surface observations on DR still seem to indicate a pretty weak low somewhere inland, maybe north side.

I haven't followed the blog much today. Did the HH find anything interesting?

I don't know much -- my only contribution here usually is to check which way the wind's blowing -- but to me the large area of westerly winds, the persistent storms south of the islands, and the fact that NHC's red circle extends almost all the way down to Venezuela, means that something could spin up south of Hispaniola too, eventually...
Quoting Mikla:
Ok, I'll bite... what do you mean by "area level plotting"?


Thanks for stepping up.
Quoting bwi:


Surface observations on DR still seem to indicate a pretty weak low somewhere inland, maybe north side.

I haven't followed the blog much today. Did the HH find anything interesting?

I don't know much -- my only contribution here usually is to check which way the wind's blowing -- but to me the large area of westerly winds, the persistent storms south of the islands, and the fact that NHC's red circle extends almost all the way down to Venezuela, means that something could spin up south of Hispaniola too, eventually...


No data stream was downloaded via the Live Decoder but the NHC issued a statement saying still disorganized. Still no TD. Another aircraft is on the way there now.
If the shear persists and 93L remains a shallow system... I will doubt it will hardly make any pronounced northward movement and if it does... it'll most like miss the trof and be picked up by the next building high.

I will doubt that the Gale center developing will push through the Atlantic to pick this shallow system up.
Buoys 42058 and 42059 both have W winds now and 42058 has a falling pressure of 1007.6
"Press in a Dress"

An actual working google search term now. HaHa!

returns:

www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum= 1096&tstamp=200809&page=15

as 1st result

Wow Press, of all the things you thought you might be famous for.

-rob
Lets see what D-Max does for it in the morning
Quoting Mikla:
Ok, I'll bite... what do you mean by "area level plotting"?


Coordinate plotting down to the County level.
Going on 10 days - no power - the generator humm has become almost unberable - huge piles of debri remain all around and this is the FIRST day i have'nt had to wait for 2 hours or more for gas and ice... the city remains in gridlock due to most of the traffic lights remaning inoperable, what used to take 20 mins now takes 1hr and half.. none of the open grocery stores have replinshed their perishables or produce.. and not a power truck in sight! All that is outside now is, just downed trees.. downed power lines, and noise pollution from 100's of generators running in sequence...

SO all you wishcasters keep up the good work!!
you can have em all!!
...
new convection exploding near i think the center might be
Link
000
WONT41 KNHC 232134
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
545 PM EDT TUE SEP 23 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FLOWN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER HISPANIOLA INDICATES THIS SYSTEM HAS
NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED...AND STILL LACKS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
HISPANIOLA. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM AND ANY PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR RESPECTIVE WEATHER
FORECAST OFFICES.

$$
Sub-Tropical Development off the North Carolina Coastline

A very deep low pressure is forecast to form offshore east of Myrtle Beach, SC and move ashore late on Thursday or early Friday somewhere between the central South Carolina coastline and the central North Carolina coastline.

The combination of a central pressure around 980-985 mb (or similar to a strong Cat 1 hurricane) and a seasonally strong high pressure centered over the northeast US will bring sustained winds possibly approaching hurricane strength (74mph) to a long stretch of coastal area north of the landfall location, and will bring 50+mph sustained winds inland over the eastern half of North Carolina.

This system will evolve from a frontal system interacting with a strong trough, which is more typical of a extra-tropical system like a Nor'easter. However, the low itself will form in an area of relatively low shear in the trough axis, and it will be in a fairly unstable environment with only moderately warm SSTs (26-28°C) - but under fairly cold air aloft associated with the mid-latitude trough.

This instability should lead to some deep convection and combined with moderately low wind shear should allow the low pressure area to become more like a tropical system with a warm core. Even if they keep it designated as a sub-tropical storm, it would likely still get a name from the NHC.

Here is a view of the 48 hour model projection from this mornings WRF high res North American run. It shows a sub 984 mb low heading for the NC/SC border. You can also see the 1032 high over the Northeast US.

The strong pressure gradient between the two will lead to strong onshore flow with some strong surge/coastal erosion issues in vulnerable areas




Where did you get that info from OSU?


Sounds pretty bad...and the winds are already whipping here in Eastern NC...has the low even formed yet?!?!
The last few frames of the floater show that shear has decreased. Also CIMSS shows shear is, at least right now, a little more favorable.
Quoting billy305:
...
new convection exploding near i think the center might be
Link


I agree. I was noticing that too.
Now that I have seen the steering currents the computer models have been forecasting materialize over the past 24 hours and this deep trough moving further south and east than expected, my confidence has increased significantly in the computer model runs and I now agree with them. Just doubted them before as the steering currents weren't supporting the computer model outputs.

But, in analyzing Invest 93L on satellite and radar imagery as well as surface observations (I haven't checked any Hurricane Hunter data and will not likely have time to go over them), it would appear that the system still remains rather disorganized with no defined low-level circulation and very ragged thunderstorm activity. Satellite offers the appearance that this could be nothing more than a ULL-induced surface trough that has been trying to gain tropical characteristics but has failed to in the presence of marginally favorable shear.

So, all in all, I'm now forecasting Invest 93L to begin its long-awaited march northward over the next 24 hours as it struggles to organize over Hispanola. Unlike pretty much all the models and the major consensus out there, I'm no longer calling for this to become a tropical storm as its energy and moisture will get entrained into the developing coastal storm.

Thats my analysis on Invest 93L tonight.
Quoting Houstonian:
Going on 10 days - no power - the generator humm has become almost unberable - huge piles of debri remain all around and this is the FIRST day i have'nt had to wait for 2 hours or more for gas and ice... the city remains in gridlock due to most of the traffic lights remaning inoperable, what used to take 20 mins now takes 1hr and half.. none of the open grocery stores have replinshed their perishables or produce.. and not a power truck in sight! All that is outside now is, just downed trees.. downed power lines, and noise pollution from 100's of generators running in sequence...

SO all you wishcasters keep up the good work!!
you can have em all!!


Brings back bad memories. I hope you get things in order . I don't mean to be a downer but, by the time y'all get to shut your generators off you'll be hearing nail guns for another 3-4 months. That gets old fast too.
604. Houstonian 10:06 PM GMT on September 23, 2008



I feel your pain man. I live in Liberty. Power came back on last night and all my ac,hotwaterheater refrigerator are fried.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Brings back bad memories. I hope you get things in order . I don't mean to be a downer but, by the time y'all get to shut your generators off you'll be hearing nail guns for another 3-4 months. That gets old fast too.
it reminds me of wilma
2 weeks no power (miami)
To be expected... the 18Z packages are starting to show basically nothing being left out of this system when it does decide to exit DR. Shear combined with poor organization pretty much will leave the Gale center to move alone towards the NE.
wow 93L just keeps getting bigger in coverage - shear must have lessened a bit
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Brings back bad memories. I hope you get things in order . I don't mean to be a downer but, by the time y'all get to shut your generators off you'll be hearing nail guns for another 3-4 months. That gets old fast too.


I am afraid the next time I race at the drag strip the sound of the generators in the pits are going to send me into shell shock.
Quoting Engine2:
wow 93L just keeps getting bigger in coverage - shear must have lessened a bit


Just happened in the last six hours. Now almost 600 miles across.
Helicop~ I just stumbled across this. Click pic again for super close up.

Quoting Houstonian:
Going on 10 days - no power - the generator humm has become almost unberable - huge piles of debri remain all around and this is the FIRST day i have'nt had to wait for 2 hours or more for gas and ice... the city remains in gridlock due to most of the traffic lights remaning inoperable, what used to take 20 mins now takes 1hr and half.. none of the open grocery stores have replinshed their perishables or produce.. and not a power truck in sight! All that is outside now is, just downed trees.. downed power lines, and noise pollution from 100's of generators running in sequence...

SO all you wishcasters keep up the good work!!
you can have em all!!


Houstonian,

Let me try to make you feel better.... I have one of the managers with Centerpoint living with me because they don't have power yet. They live in the Montrose, within walking distance from downtown.

What area are you in, I'll make sure that you're on the list.
Quoting Skyepony:
Helicop~ I just stumbled across this. Click pic again for super close up.



Bingo.... Thanks a bunch.
93L growing in size is a sign of weakness. The convection isn't being held in by the center and is just wandering off with the shear.

On a nowcast point, it's been blowing here in E NC all day long with mid teens to low twenties winds and gusts around 30 all day.
Ya'll can say conspiricy theorists.. We saw the law pass after Katrina, Bush made it so they can turn the data off when ever. Never seen bouy blackouts like '06... That seemed pretty clear the recon got turned off today the moment decent started, as while they were flying NHC was commenting on what recon found. Usually with transmission probs it shows up after the flight & nothing..
RE: 604

We were without electricity for 3 1/2 weeks after Hugo. Didn't use a generator, and in some ways I think we were better off - you are right, that noise gets real old, real fast.

Where do you get your gas and ice? From your post it sounded like someone was delivering it.

The debris will be with you for quite sometime.
Kids will want to climb the debris, but there will be a snake etc hazard.

When Christmas was rolling around, I wondered if I should string lights on the debris. As it turned out, I did not have to. It started snowing (Christmas Eve, I think) and Christmas was one of the prettiest I have ever seen. Literally a gift from heaven.

It was about 5 years before I would have a real Christmas tree in the house. After loosing so many trees it was like looking at a corpse.

Now only a little less than 20 years later, only those with long memories of what it looked like before would know we ever had such a storm.

You will be amazed at how neighbors pull together. Strangely some of my fondest memories were of the time after the storm with friends and family.

If you do not lose a love one, the rest is stuff.
so does this means NYC and Jersey are out of the woods for the most art....because it really wasnt looking good yesterday...any thoughts?
623 largeyes

I was thinking same thing and that the large area of convection to the SE was detaching.

Not so sure anymore in looking at the recent frames.
Quoting New2SOFLA:
so does this means NYC and Jersey are out of the woods for the most art....because it really wasnt looking good yesterday...any thoughts?


does what mean??
Upper level anticyclone has formed over the center of 93L producing 10kts of shear according to CIMSS analysis. Once it moves northwestward north of DR should see development.
recon now descending...
convection seems to rotate around a fixed point (near south coast of hipaniola) lately in the floaters
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...


Been noticing pressure is low well north of 93L.
they are at 1006 still pretty far north of Hispaniola
Unofficial word on City of Houston Debris Removal per one of their managers over a beer.

They're holding off until the power is restored in each pick-up area. They don't want the trucks to interfere with Centerpoint.
Storm,

If:
1. I knew enough about weather I'd love to help
2. Can we go sailing around the globe w/ him? ahh... now that would be devine!
Quoting StormW:
Good evening!

I posted this a few days ago. I'm looking for at least one more person with solid forecasting skills to join my forecast team. So far, I have cchs, and caneaddict. We will be forecasting for a good cause, as stated in this excerpt of an email I received from UWalkTheMall. I have spoken to both her, and Kris Scheppe on the phone.

Please email me here on WU if you have an interest.

Thanks!

"Storm"

Mankind’s passion to sail the seas is a desire that is ingrained in many humans. This desire is what has motivated and inspired many of the great sailors from the Vikings to the Renaissance explorers such as Columbus and Magellan. This desire is one that still motivates and inspires sailors today.
Kristopher Scheppe is equally inspired and motivated by a great love of sailing the seas. Just as Magellan and his crew used their passion to become the first people to successfully sail around the world, Scheppe strives to become the first legally blind person to successfully sail around the world.
At a very young age Scheppe was diagnosed with Retinitis Pigmentosa (RP). RP is a genetic eye disease, which results in gradual loss of peripheral vision and legal-blindness in most cases. Kris can only see directly ahead through a small patch of central vision, what most would refer to as “tunnel vision”.

Kris will be needing a team of weather people to watch the daily weather as well as the seas ahead during his voyage around the world. Would you be interested in participating in this voyage or would you possibly know of others who might.
Here in se NC it been blowing 15 to 20 with gusts in the upper 20`s
Can still see 2 different points of rotation on the DR Radar Link
Quoting riograndpa:


does what mean??


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly
Has anyone been watching the BOC lately? There's definately convection, an upper level anticyclone, and low shear. Ascat shows a circulation. Satellite loops show good outflow to the east. The only thing preventing development is proximity to land and marginal shear. If it stays offshore, we might be looking at development.
shear
Quoting TideWaterWeather:


Been noticing pressure is low well north of 93L.
they are at 1006 still pretty far north of Hispaniola


Have to wait for them to level off to get any meaningful readings.
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...
Quoting Seastep:
recon now descending...


CLICK!

LOL J/K
Friendly reminder... hehe.

GOM will need to be watch this weekend into next week... there's some indication that a weakness and return flow from the Carib.. into the GOM could potentially sping something up and shoot it towards the eastern GOM states. This has been based on consistencies with Global models.
Quoting New2SOFLA:


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly
Not necessarily, remember the models dont have a definite point of circulation to initiate off but if and when they do, they will better handle the future forecast. Also alot rides on the trough, nor'easter, and the weakness in stearing currents. Still to early to say but tomorrow we should have a better idea of exactly whats going on and the future of 93L. Models will have the tendency to shift east then shift back west just like a windshield wiper. Don't count anyone out yet
Quoting listenerVT:
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!


I was wondering the same thing!!! ;-)
bbl
tha
Quoting Engine2:
Not necessarily, remember the models dont have a definite point of circulation to initiate off but if and when they do, they will better handle the future forecast. Also alot rides on the trough, nor'easter, and the weakness in stearing currents. Still to early to say but tomorrow we should have a better idea of exactly whats going on and the future of 93L. Models will have the tendency to shift east then shift back west just like a windshield wiper. Don't count anyone out yet


thanks 4 the info ill just keep watching it hopefully its out with the fish
Quoting New2SOFLA:


since its moving north and the low off sc is strengthening should it pull whatever ccomes of 93l out to sea? or farther north and east? yest. the models had it hitting nj or nyc directly


depends on how strong 93 is at any given point of time. i believe the models expected a stronger storm at this stage which would make a turn north probable. its a short system with nothing but wobble. imo
You know you’re from the Gulf Coast when:
1. You have FEMA’s number on speed dial.

2. You have more than 30 C and D batteries in your kitchen drawer.

3. Your pantry contains more than 5 cans each of Spaghetti O’s, Wolf Brand Chili, Vienna Sausages and Sterno.

4. You are thinking of repainting your house to match the plywood covering your windows.

5. When describing your house to a prospective buyer, you say it has three bedrooms, two baths and an “open air feel to it.”

6. All you favorite possessions have been moved to interior closets on the second floor.

7. You are on a first-name basis with the cashier at Home Depot.

8. You are delighted to pay $3.75 for a gallon of regular unleaded.

9. The road leading to your house has been declared a No-Wake Zone.

10. You decide that your patio furniture looks better on the bottom of the pool.

11. You own more than three large coolers.

12. You can wish that other people get hit by a hurricane and not feel the least bit guilty about it.

13. You rationalize helping a friend board up by thinking it’ll only take a gallon of gas to get there and back

14. You have 2-liter coke bottles and milk jugs filled with water in your freezer.

15. Three months ago you couldn’t hang a shower curtain; today you can assemble a portable generator by candlelight.

16. Less than 10 people in front of you at the gas station is cause for celebration.

17. Less than 15 people in front of you at the grocery store is only a fond memory.

18. You consider taking a vacation to stunning Tupelo, Mississippi.

19. At the next generator-powered block party, people will still be bragging about chainsaw size.

20. You have had tuna fish more than 5 days in a row and are happy to still have some left.

21. There is a roll of tar paper in your garage.

22. You can rattle off the names of three or more meteorologists who work at the Weather Channel or Wunderground.

23. Someone comes to your door to tell you they found your roof.

24. Ice is a valid topic of conversation.

25. Drive-thru meals may realistically consist of MRE’s and bottled water.

26. Relocating to South Dakota does not seem like such a crazy idea.

27. You spend more time on your roof and your porch then in your living room.

28. You’ve been laughed at over the phone by a roofer, fence builder or a tree worker.

29. A battery powered TV is considered a home entertainment center and comes with bragging rights.

30. You don’t worry about relatives wanting to visit during the summer.

***31. Your child’s first words are “hunker down!”

32. Having a tree in your living room does not necessarily mean it’s Christmas.

33. Toilet paper is elevated to the coin of the realm.

34. You know the difference between the good side of a storm and the bad side.

35. You can recite from memory whole portions of your homeowner’s insurance policy.

36. You go to work early and stay late just to enjoy the air conditioning.

37. Your garage smells like gasoline.

***38. You are more concerned about someone stealing your generator then your car.

***39. You get excited when you see the heavy trash guys in your neighborhood.

***********40. You get REALLY excited when you see a Centerpoint truck in your neighborhood!

41. You can create memorable meals with a can of SPAM and one gas burner.

42. You are prepared to wait in line at Starbucks for 2 hours to get a cup of coffee and internet access.

Good luck to everyone who was affected by Ike. Each day brings us a little closer back to normal. Hang in there!
627 seastep

I think without a doubt that it has lost that convection. It is obviously building new confection, but what was to the SE is no longer with the storm center.
Quoting listenerVT:
Invest 93's report says:

Movement N at 0mph.

If it's 0mph, how do they know it's moving N?

LOL!


I guess they asked it. ;)
Quoting Cotillion:


I guess they asked it. ;)

No, if it stalls, it will stay stationary, or the same as going 0deg at 0mph.
649. Houstonian

Oh..My..Gawd - That is so funny and so true.

Houstonian, your post is a real keeper. I am copying and pasting and putting in my "pull it out later when you need it file"

Bless you.
Quoting Seastep:


Have to wait for them to level off to get any meaningful readings.


been 1007-1006 (EXTRAP) all the way across the bahamas, i dont think it has anything to do with flight level. Was just commenting that there is broad low pressure all around to the north, if the RECON surface pressures are accurate anyway.

Quoting Cotillion:


I guess they asked it. ;)



That's it! ROFLMEO! :~D
Quoting billy305:
...
new convection exploding near i think the center might be
Link
convection was a lot batter this morning looks to have scattered
Houstonian-

LOL. I'm still rolling around the floor laughing. After living here thru Andrew, Georges, Lily, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Gustav and Ike, I can identify with every line of your list. What a classic. I've printed it and will put it on My fridge every June 1st!
Quoting StormW:
649. Houstonian 6:54 PM EDT on September 23, 2008
You know you’re from the Gulf Coast when:


Jim Cantore takes up a 6 month residence in your neighborhood!
LOL great one Storm W


attack of the "BLOG FOG!!!"

649. Houstonian 10:54 PM

Many thanks for the laugh!

I am sending that along to a good friend who lived across from the Galveston Island seawall, and evacuated to Austin.

She is a chaplain for those in need, and wants to go back to Galveston to help.
663. Vero1
NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!!