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Little change to Caribbean disturbance 94L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:54 PM GMT on November 15, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (Invest 94L) in the southern Caribbean between Colombia and Nicaragua has seen a modest increase in thunderstorm activity this morning, but is battling dry air, and the odds are against the system becoming Tropical Storm Virginie. Satellite images show that 94L has a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, but the activity is increasing, and a low-level circulation is getting better defined. Water vapor satellite images show a large amount of dry air lies to the north over the northern Caribbean, and this dry air is slowing development. SSTs are warm, 29°C, and wind shear as analyzed by the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group is a moderate 10 - 15 knots.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 94L.

Forecast for 94L
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days. The modest shear and warm SSTs may allow for some slow organization of 94L over the next few days, if the storm can wall off the dry air at mid-levels that has been interfering with development. The models predict that the steering currents in the southern Caribbean will keep 94L moving generally west-northwestward at about 5 - 10 mph for the next three days, which would bring the storm ashore over Nicaragua or northeast Honduras on Wednesday. The models are not showing much development of 94L, and NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday. I'd put the odds higher, at 30%. The Hurricane Hunter mission into 94L scheduled for today has been canceled, but is slated to go on Tuesday afternoon. At this time, it appears that 94L will stay confined to the Caribbean, and will not be drawn northwards across Cuba towards Florida and the Bahamas.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I find myself conflicted once again; I want to see a 20th storm if for no other reason than to allow my pre-season forecast to be verified, but I don't wish to see one in the Caribbean, so I'm kinda rooting against 94L. Just a nice quick spin-up far out in the open waters would be more to my liking... ;-)
GOM IR Loop



Thanks Jeff.. your right about little change.. this is like slow motion to the extreme.

Complete Update

I wonder if the little Blob over by Pottery will be anything?






TSPIN BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Thank You Dr. and Enjoy the Upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday if nothing significant forms in the tropics after 94L comes ashore in Central America........... :)
Thanks Doc.

Regarding yesterday's discussion, here is a link to Richard feynmans lecture on electricity in the atmosphere, this helped me get my head around it a while back.
As has been the case for most of the last several months, above-average temps are still the norm for the CONUS. According to HAMweather, just 30 low or low maximum temperature records have been set or tied in the past three days, while 372 record highs or high minimums have been set over the same time frame. (Over the past week, things are only slightly more balanced, with the high record/low record ratio standing at 597/127.)
In 2005, 20 days passed between the formation of Hurricane Beta (10/26) and Gamma (11/15), after which there were still three more storms. It's now been 17 days since Tomas was formed; will we see Virginie in the next three days?

For the record, 1969 also saw a 21-day lull beginning on Halloween and ending with the formation of that season's last storm on November 21.
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting Neapolitan:
I find myself conflicted once again; I want to see a 20th storm if for no other reason than to allow me pre-season forecast to be verified, but I don't wish to see one in the Caribbean, so I'm kinda rooting against 94L. Just a nice quick spin-up far out in the open waters would be more to my liking... ;-)


At least you did better than my 16-9-4 forecast ;)

For a storm over open water, you need to look N of the Caribbean this time of year, an extratropical cyclone that becomes tropical. Its pretty impossible now to get a tropical cyclone E of the Anitlles and W of the Cape Verde Islands this late in the game.
Quoting Neapolitan:
In 2005, 20 days passed between the formation of Hurricane Beta (10/26) and Gamma (11/15), after which there were still three more storms. It's now been 17 days since Tomas was formed; will we see Virginie in the next three days?

For the record, 1969 also saw a 21-day lull beginning on Halloween and ending with the formation of that season's last storm on November 21.


La Nina (1969) or La Nina like (2005) years tend to have late or even post-season activity as you can still get pockets of low wind shear.

94L for instance is in a pocket of low shear in the south Caribbean. 94L is one "lucky" disturbance, but dry air is making it run out of "luck."

Anyway, I wouldn't be surprised if we get one December storm this year.
suspicious area near 11N 51Wmoving wnw. at the moment very little 850mb vorticity. the area is under 10-15 knots of shear. there is also good convergence and divergence. it is an interesting area which needs watching
Record breaking heat Tuesday here on the first coast. Looks like 7,879 degrees, i'll be wearing sunscreen. LOL

Quoting Jax82:
Record breaking heat Tuesday here on the first coast. Looks like 7,879 degrees, i'll be wearing sunscreen. LOL


Now if that isn't a sign of global warming, nothing is... ;-)
how cold will it get in south fla for thanksgiving i heard a strong cold front coming and it will be cold
Quoting Jax82:
Record breaking heat Tuesday here on the first coast. Looks like 7,879 degrees, i'll be wearing sunscreen. LOL



It's a lot warmer 90 minutes south of you in Orlando as our high tomorrow is expected to hit 84 to 85 with cooler conditions as highs fall back to near 80 Friday thru the weekend.
jeff 9641 tell me how cold u think it will get
Quoting eddye:
jeff 9641 tell me how cold u think it will get


78 to 82! LOL! It looks as if we are going to have a lot of winter days like this season as we are in a moderate La Nina. La Nina is however expected to dissipate or weaken to .5 come late Feb or into March.
jeff 9641 it shows mid 40 and lower 40 the day after thanksgiving
it show mid 40 to lower 40 the day after thanksgiving
Quoting eddye:
jeff 9641 it shows mid 40 and lower 40 the day after thanksgiving


I see that but some models keep the cold air over the Central Plains. We will know for sure in couple of days if FL will get a big cool down later next week.
12Z GFS does dump very cold air toward the deep south next weekend. We will see if this pans out.
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
Not many teams beat the Steelers. Tom Brady not only beats them, he embarrasses them!!!!WOW!!!


Thanks for that Booger.
...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
BRING A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
UNLIKELY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A VARIETY OF WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I find myself conflicted once again; I want to see a 20th storm if for no other reason than to allow my pre-season forecast to be verified, but I don't wish to see one in the Caribbean, so I'm kinda rooting against 94L. Just a nice quick spin-up far out in the open waters would be more to my liking... ;-)
Lol...What.?..You dont want a cat-5 to stall over the greater Miami area.?..jk
Quoting Jax82:
Record breaking heat Tuesday here on the first coast. Looks like 7,879 degrees, i'll be wearing sunscreen. LOL



As long as GISS uses readings like that to extrapolate the Arctic anomolies, I don't see a problem.
29. JRRP
Solid Neutral conditions to a slight El-Nino come July of 2011 could mean a monster 2011 hurricane season with maybe lots of landfalls.
Conditions seem favorable for that mass of water vapor to turn into something. Think we may finish the list this year.



000
NOUS42 KNHC 151415 CCA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0915 AM EST MON 15 NOVEMBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z NOVEMBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-167 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/2100Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 16/1600Z
D. 14.0N AND 79.0W
E. 16/2000 TO 16/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 24-HRLY FIXES AT
17/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: MISSION FOR 15/1800Z CANCELED
BY NHC AT 15/1055Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

Recon cancelled for today!
Quoting alfabob:
Conditions seem favorable for that mass of water vapor to turn into something. Think we may finish the list this year.



It is my prediction that the"mass of water vapor" lol,..will make it to the Caribbean Sea. If the MJO is upward in the area when it gets there, maybe something could spin up..Even that area E-SE of the islands looks a little interesting.

Tornado Warning

TORNADO WARNING
ALC003-053-FLC033-151900-
/O.NEW.KMOB.TO.W.0032.101115T1803Z-101115T1900Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1203 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST FLORIDA...
SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF ATMORE...
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 100 PM CST

* AT 1201 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 8 MILES EAST OF
BAY MINETTE...OR NEAR CARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
ATMORE AROUND 1230 PM CST...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHEN A TORNADO WARNING IS ISSUED BASED ON DOPPLER RADAR...IT MEANS
THAT STRONG ROTATION HAS BEEN DETECTED IN THE STORM. A TORNADO MAY
ALREADY BE ON THE GROUND...OR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SHORTLY. IF YOU
ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS DANGEROUS STORM...MOVE INDOORS AND TO THE
LOWEST LEVEL OF THE BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF DRIVING...DO
NOT SEEK SHELTER UNDER A HIGHWAY OVERPASS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

LAT...LON 3110 8750 3093 8737 3087 8764 3093 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 233DEG 21KT 3091 8764

$$







The rotation appears to have weakened

Hello everyone, 94L is running out of time. DRY AIR!
Buckets of rain here today in lower AL.
Severe Weather Statement

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1230 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

ALC003-053-FLC033-151837-
/O.CAN.KMOB.TO.W.0032.000000T0000Z-101115T1900Z/
ESCAMBIA AL-BALDWIN AL-ESCAMBIA FL-
1230 PM CST MON NOV 15 2010

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA...CENTRAL BALDWIN
AND SOUTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATES THAT ROTATION WITHIN THE
STORM HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS
STORM AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERN ESCAMBIA COUNTY ALABAMA.


LAT...LON 3110 8750 3093 8737 3087 8764 3093 8769
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 233DEG 21KT 3099 8751

$$






Looks like a cold rainy Thanksgiving. I will take cold and rainy over hot. My relatives in S FL. plan on baking most of the fall and winter. Combustion was the word my dad used.
Thanks Tornado
Quoting scott39:
Thanks Tornado


no problem.

a minimal threat for tornadoes as well across the central Florida Panhandle tomorrow as well
Is the winter forecast still suppossed to be dry for the SE or just mostly Fl. We have gotten some good rain in the last 4 weeks on the Gulf Coast.
Quoting scott39:
Is the winter forecast still suppossed to be dry for the SE or just mostly Fl. We have gotten some good rain in the last 4 weeks on the Gulf Coast.
It seems yall have had some good rains for over a year. With only one small break.(for some).
Interesting date/time on post 44.
44. sunlinepr 5:16 PM AST on May 21, 2009
hyrdrus it will be in the lower 40 after thanksgiving day
Another COC relocation, East for 94L?
GPS and Weather

Soon we will have 4 main global GPS systems running in parallel: The US GPS, Russia GLONASS, Europe's Galileo's GPS (up to 1m accurate) and the Chinese (GPS service with a secondary, encrypted signal that can be used (presumably) by the military).

The Global Positioning System (GPS) is a space-based global navigation satellite system that provides reliable location and time information in all weather and at all times and anywhere on or near the Earth when and where there is an unobstructed line of sight to four or more GPS satellites. It is maintained by the United States government and is freely accessible by anyone with a GPS receiver.

Other satellite navigation systems in use or various states of development include:

* European Union Galileo – a global system being developed by the European Union and other partner countries, planned to be operational by 2014
* People's Republic of China Beidou – People's Republic of China's regional system, covering Asia and the West Pacific[72]
* People's Republic of China COMPASS – People's Republic of China's global system, planned to be operational by 2020[73][74]
* Russia GLONASS – Russia's global navigation system
* India IRNSS – India's regional navigation system, planned to be operational by 2012, covering India and Northern Indian Ocean[75]
* Japan QZSS – Japanese regional system covering Asia and Oceania
this is what it says for me:

44. sunlinepr 9:16 PM GMT on May 21, 2009
Glitches and Bugs on the Blog, like last night....
Quoting eddye:
hyrdrus it will be in the lower 40 after thanksgiving day
We will be lucky if we reach that for a high.
Looks like coc of 94L has relocated farther east around 12.3N/76W, showing signs of organization to me at least also.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like coc of 94L has relocated farther east around 12.3N/76W, showing signs of organization to me at least also.
That's what I'm seeing also re: post 53
Quoting sunlinepr:
Looks like feeder bands to the south are forming but convection to the north is still having a bit of trouble.
Also land interaction on SW will do?
94L looks a little better than yesterday to me, but not much. If that dry air to the north reduces its influence it may have a chance.
Quoting outlookchkr:
Looks like feeder bands to the south are forming but convection to the north is still having a bit of trouble.
That dry air to its north will be a factor whether it forms or not...
Pressure at San Andreas on Providencia Island is 0.04" lower than this time yesterday. 29.89" yesterday and 29.85" today.
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
...STRONG STORM TO AFFECT EASTERN IDAHO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL
BRING A COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND TO SOUTHEAST IDAHO. EXPECT
LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SPREAD
INTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING. EXPECT ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 3
INCH RANGE IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES IN THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ALTHOUGH VERY HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE
UNLIKELY WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL CAUSE EXTENSIVE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30
TO 40 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS AND SNAKE
RIVER PLAIN. A VARIETY OF WIND AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES OR
WARNINGS MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED WITH THIS FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

Hello How u doing? Enjoying the cold weather? LOL
Quoting hydrus:
That dry air to its north will be a factor whether it forms or not...
I see what you're saying, but the winds have been pushing some of the moisture from the NE but like you said, the NW quadrant is dry.Link
Good Afternoon. What a slooowww day on the blog today.
Quoting outlookchkr:
I see what you're saying, but the winds have been pushing some of the moisture from the NE but like you said, the NW quadrant is dry.Link
Yes I see...If it does spin up, it will "ingest" big parcels of the incredibly dry air to the northwest...However, the water there is very warm, and will help it develop whether it has dry air in it or not...
69 posts in 6 hours?

The cloud people are leaving in droves.



5 Day Dr. M Blog Forecast:

Monday - Partly bloggable. Interests in invests 30%. Chance for troll showers 60%

Tuesday - Hardly bloggable. Chance for Global Warming/Ice Melt propaganda 70%. Heavy troll storms possible.

Wednesday - Partly bloggable. Interests in invests 20%. Chance for troll showers 30%.

Thursday - Hardly bloggable. Interests in invests 20%. Chance for troll showers 50%.

Friday - Bloggable and clear. Interests in invests 10%. No troll showers likely. Chance of weekend global warming blog 50%.

Quoting hydrus:
That dry air to its north will be a factor whether it forms or not...
Also, if I might ask being a Newbie, how much will land interaction to the SE play in development? I read in one of Dr. Masters posts that the COC had to stay somewhat offshore (for Tomas's development) but I don't recall the distance he referred to.
Some on this mainly tropical blog call it "Wintertime" I have heard.

There is still an nice storm system forming out west - no to mention hurricane season isnt totally over.
WOW! The 12Z GFS Sure wants to dump COLD air into the east and deep south after Thanksgiving. Cold to finish the month going into the 1st week of December all the way to the Gulf Coast if, and pretty big if, it should verify.
Quoting Surfcropper:
69 posts in 6 hours?

The cloud people are leaving in droves.



5 Day Dr. M Blog Forecast:

Monday - Partly bloggable. Interests in invests 30%. Chance for troll showers 60%

Tuesday - Hardly bloggable. Chance for Global Warming/Ice Melt propaganda 70%. Heavy troll storms possible.

Wednesday - Partly bloggable. Interests in invests 20%. Chance for troll showers 30%.

Thursday - Hardly bloggable. Interests in invests 20%. Chance for troll showers 50%.

Friday - Bloggable and clear. Interests in invests 10%. No troll showers likely. Chance of weekend global warming blog 50%.

This is great post.!...Subject matter from the S.E at 10, switching to the N.W. and increasing 15 to 20 with the possibility of global warming posts at near 100 %..:)
Quoting Jeff9641:
12Z GFS does dump very cold air toward the deep south next weekend. We will see if this pans out.


We can only hope. Would love to see a real cold Thanksgiving in Miami for a change. Last year I seem to remember it being 82º or 83º.
Quoting outlookchkr:
Also, if I might ask being a Newbie, how much will land interaction to the SE play in development? I read in one of Dr. Masters posts that the COC had to stay somewhat offshore (for Tomas's development) but I don't recall the distance he referred to.
It depends(I guess) on how close to land it is, and what type of terrain. I have seen storms form and strengthen with there centers right on the coast..And not just in the Atlantic Basin, but all over the world. When the environment is right, these storms do all sorts of strange things.
Sunline, just drove through Rincon ;)
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010xo:
Cool video J.
Quoting orthodoxkc:


We can only hope. Would love to see a real cold Thanksgiving in Miami for a change. Last year I seem to remember it being 82 or 83.

Speak for yourself; I came to Florida to get away from that "real cold" stuff... ;-)

94L looks great this evening. Convection has died down only a little with DMIN, and rotation seems to be on the increase. Circulation appears elongated and multi-centric, however, and at some point the whole mess will run out of room. Still, while I may be wrong (yet again), I'm guessing pressure will be down and winds will be up later this evening...

Quoting Jeff9641:
12Z GFS does dump very cold air toward the deep south next weekend. We will see if this pans out.


Not to mention models are calling for a possible winter storm for parts of the NE and mid-atlantic around thanksgiving towards the following weekend.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
WOW! The 12Z GFS Sure wants to dump COLD air into the east and deep south after Thanksgiving. Cold to finish the month going into the 1st week of December all the way to the Gulf Coast if, and pretty big if, it should verify.


Pretty strong 1041mb Artic high

94L still firing convection even with D/min, banding evident, could be that 94L means business.
40-60% for 94l at 7 pm?


San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 13 min 48 sec ago
29 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 66%
Dew Point: 22 °C
Wind: 6 km/h / 1.5 m/s from the North

Pressure: 1009 hPa (Falling)
Heat Index: 32 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 1 out of 16
Clouds: Few 579 m
Mostly Cloudy 6096 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m



Barranquilla, CO (Airport)
Updated: 15 min 40 sec ago
24 °C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 9 km/h / 2.6 m/s from the WSW

Pressure: 1011 hPa (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 365 m
Mostly Cloudy 2133 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 m

Rapid Fire Updates:

i have almost completed transition from tropical blog to a winter blog drop by let me know if there is anything you would like added

Link
They just banned me for 11900 hours. I wrote them a letter, and the ban was immediately lifted. But no apology. :(
easternuswx.com now offline

update ...


getting dark and 94L looking impressive
XCool, why are you living in the past. May 22, 2009?
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
They just banned me for 11900 hours. I wrote them a letter, and the ban was immediately lifted. But no apology. :(


you're kidding right? Thats some kind of error that happens when you log on or change users, or sometimes occurs during edits. I assume it is happening to everyone - Dr Ms blog has been disappearing in the countdown too. Also at lest one poster and probably more are missing membership data at the bottom of their posts. I suspect they are testing something for an upgrade.
;))) i been so busyy
Quoting JFLORIDA:


you're kidding right? Thats some kind of error that happens when you log on or change users.
It may have been a coincidence. I had not even posted recently.
Did 94L relocate east? that would give it an extra day or two
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
It may have been a coincidence. I had not even posted recently.


See post 94 - I think its real. just not worth your time to write in for. Ill drop a trouble ticket too. Its done.
Link
Dry air retreating, moistening to the NW, Shear lowering, condition becoming more favorable for 94L
Quoting JFLORIDA:


you're kidding right? Thats some kind of error that happens when you log on or change users, or sometimes occurs during edits. I assume it is happening to everyone Dr Ms blog has been disappearing in the countdown too. I suspect they are testing something for an upgrade.


This blog has been really buggy lately. People's 'Member Since' info disappearing, wrong post times, illegitimate bans, etc. If they're working on an upgrade, they wouldn't be testing it on a production server. Or shouldn't be, anyway. IMHO, it's just bugs which I'm sure are giving the web folks fits, as it continues.
102. xcool
here new websitee ...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
XCool, why are you living in the past. May 22, 2009?
The blog has been weird the past two days with the dates and the 12,000 + hour bans. Don't know what is going on with it.
100 - I put all those things on the trouble ticket. I blame the "Rich Text" for a lot of mishaps now. Although I really like it for some posts and wouldn't want to be without the option.

I suspect the models will shift NW/N also.
That was weird, I was banned from this blog for a minute, and I didn't say anything that would cause chaos. LOL
Quoting stormpetrol:
I suspect the models will shift NW/N also.
They have been slowly shifting more NW all day.


Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They have been slowly shifting more NW all day.



I think this might be one late season one we "might" just have to watch as well it may not amount to much!
Quoting stormpetrol:

I think this might be one late season one we "might" just have to watch as well it may not amount to much!
I agree. Can anyone say "Paloma " ? Same area and same difficulty developing.
Tornado chances from november 15 2005

We certainly have not had some of the big storms like November has in the past only 1 storm this fall that has really been powerful... maybe they will happen in December this year
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
We certainly have not had some of the big storms like November has in the past only 1 storm this fall that has really been powerful... maybe they will happen in December this year


if they happen with some cold air in place, we might see some pretty good snow and ice storms
I've not had any problems yet on wunderground except that really annoying pop up pages happen here a lot. Sometimes get 10 pop-up pages when I open a blog page, and then go look at radars. Pages like intellus and avagate. Avagate seems like a site full of trojan viruses, don't go there. Same with dgpile.com. mdlinx.com (gastroenterology page) And San Francisco job search vids pages (pay $69.95 for your video resume!)

These pop up pages are very annoying. And firefox pop-up blocker is not working on these either.
Quoting tornadodude:


if they happen with some cold air in place, we might see some pretty good snow and ice storms
they will happen not a matter of if but when
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they will happen not a matter of if but when


I mean usually there is a 2nd peak in tornadoes in the fall but there sure has not been one this fall
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I've not had any problems yet on wunderground except that really annoying pop up pages happen here a lot. Sometimes get 10 pop-up pages when I open a blog page, and then go look at radars. Pages like intellus and avagate. Avagate seems like a site full of trojan viruses, don't go there. Same with dgpile.com. mdlinx.com (gastroenterology page) And San Francisco job search vids pages (pay $69.95 for your video resume!)

These pop up pages are very annoying. And firefox pop-up blocker is not working on these either.
if ya pay 10 bucks get rid of ads and pop ups as a paying member also get some cool extra features

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 152334
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 PM EST MON NOV 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED AND REMAINS
DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

NHC not impressed with 94L





Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I've not had any problems yet on wunderground except that really annoying pop up pages happen here a lot. Sometimes get 10 pop-up pages when I open a blog page, and then go look at radars. Pages like intellus and avagate. Avagate seems like a site full of trojan viruses, don't go there. Same with dgpile.com. mdlinx.com (gastroenterology page) And San Francisco job search vids pages (pay $69.95 for your video resume!)

These pop up pages are very annoying. And firefox pop-up blocker is not working on these either.


Get adblock plus here

Get Spywareblaster here

They cut out most if not all popups.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
if ya pay 10 bucks get rid of ads and pop ups as a paying member also get some cool extra features


What are the extra features?
40 frame radars I know that is a big extra feature
Firefox in Linux doesn't seem to have them.
Link
I still think 94L is impressive as it ever been.Lots of spin no doubt about that!
Link

Looks as though 94L circulation keeps relocating further east look at 12.7N/75W
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Looks as though 94L circulation keeps relocating further east look at 12.7N/75W
Looks like a couple spins but I do see one where you pinpoint it.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link

Looks as though 94L circulation keeps relocating further east look at 12.7N/75W


I think there were multiple locations of vorticity, but one is starting to become the main feature (76.5W, 12N).

Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
I still think 94L is impressive as it ever been.Lots of spin no doubt about that!
CaribWX update for today.

TROPICS:
--NOAA estimates 20% chance of Tropical LO formation next 48hrs...I'll go with a 30%-40% chance of Tropical LO formation thru Thu18.

--This morning, Invest 94 seemed well on its way to developing an organized surface LO...but convection weakened today, and vorticity became less-focused...so we're still a good ways from developing a Tropical LO.

--Ingredients for Tropical LO lie 10N-13N btwn 77W-80W & should continue moving slowly somewhere between W and NW...passing near (or N or S of) Providencia-SanAndreas tomorrow or Wed17 / move into any part of NicaraguanCoast Thu18 or Fri19.

--The other good news today is nearly all models that develop a Tropical LO keep it a 25-35k TropicalDepression, and only 1 model strengthens it into a 35k+ TropicalStorm...so it seems we can take wind in excess of 50k off-the-table.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Get adblock plus here

Get Spywareblaster here

They cut out most if not all popups.


Thanks dontannoyme
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:


Thanks dontannoyme


Sure, hope it helps.

Quoting alfabob:


I think there were multiple locations of vorticity, but one is starting to become the main feature (76.5W, 12N).

The genesis of Paloma was fairly well anticipated. The area of disturbed weather that became Paloma was first mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) at 1800 UTC
2 November, 72 h prior to genesis. The initial genesis forecast was in the “low” category (less than 20% probability of genesis in 48 h), and the probability was increased to “medium”
(20–50% probability of genesis) at 0000 UTC 3 November and remained in this category for
36 h. Six hours prior to genesis, at 1200 UTC 5 November, the genesis forecast was increased to “high” (greater than 50% probability of genesis). While the genesis of Paloma was well anticipated overall, the probability of genesis was not raised into the “high” category until just prior to genesis.
Not getting popups on other sites I go to. One time I got 14 pop up pages when opening a blog here.

Not sure if the extra features are worth 10 bucks or not, to be honest.


I have adblockplus already. I'll try the spywareblaster.

A nasty bit of rogue software "Windows Security Essentials 2011" has been making the rounds in my circle. It's one of those fake programs that turns off your security software and flashes fake security alerts on your computer. Malwarebytes was the only security software I have that took care of it.
Even if you don't run it, I think it is good to update your security software daily. And if you get that rogue software, run the malwarebytes immediately.
Take a look at the weather summary by Kari Keifer:


Weather Summary

Kari Kiefer
Weather Underground midday recap for Monday, November 15, 2010.

A strong frontal boundary extended down the East Coast on Monday, which brought scattered showers to the Northeast and heavy rains to the Southeast. The front was created as a low pressure system developed in the Gulf of Mexico. Flow around this area of low pressure pushed ample moisture over the Gulf states, which allowed for moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms to develop. These storms have not yet turned severe, but rainfall totals have reached up to 1.51 inches in Atlanta, Georgia, to 2.03 inches in Alexander City, Alabama. In the North, rain showers remained light, less than a tenth of an inch, due to less available moisture. Just behind this system in the Southern Plains, scattered showers developed ahead of a trough of low pressure. Rainfall totals only ranged from 0.09 inches in Meridian, Oklahoma, to 0.14 inches in Watonga, Oklahoma.

Meanwhile in the West, a trough of low pressure over the Rocky Mountains triggered moderate to heavy snowfall across the Northern and Central Rockies. Snowfall totals ranged from 6 to 11 inches across higher elevations of Colorado and 2 to 4 inches in Utah. Montana and Wyoming saw between 1 to 3 inches of snow. Further west, scattered showers returned to the Pacific Northwest as a low pressure system in the Pacific pushes a cold front onshore. Most areas saw light showers with rainfall totals less than a quarter of an inch. California and the Southwestern US remained warm and dry as a ridge of high pressure created strong offshore flow.

Temperatures in the Lower 48 states Monday have ranged from a morning low of 12 degrees at Alamosa, Colo. to a midday high of 90 degrees at Augusta, Maine.


90 degrees in Maine on the ides of November seems a bit much.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
90 degrees in Maine on the ides of November seems a bit much.


Busted electronics somewhere.

ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...
AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY
321 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

TODAY
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

Although, it is sometimes warmer in coastal ME/MA than it is in central NC.
Quoting DontAnnoyMe:


Busted electronics somewhere.

ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LEWISTON-AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...
AUGUSTA...WATERVILLE...WINTERPORT...UNITY
321 AM EST MON NOV 15 2010

TODAY
CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE
THIS MORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.

Although, it is sometimes warmer in coastal ME/MA than it is here in central NC.
I thought that Augusta ME might have had a high of 32 F. With the 32 becoming 32 C which equals 90 F.

But it seems the high in Augusta ME was 47 F today. So just some fluky error.

Spywareblaster seems to be working. Thanks.
hey guys well I have to say I think we are in for another Paloma with 94L
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The genesis of Paloma was fairly well anticipated. The area of disturbed weather that became Paloma was first mentioned in the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) at 1800 UTC
2 November, 72 h prior to genesis. The initial genesis forecast was in the “low” category (less than 20% probability of genesis in 48 h), and the probability was increased to “medium”
(20–50% probability of genesis) at 0000 UTC 3 November and remained in this category for
36 h. Six hours prior to genesis, at 1200 UTC 5 November, the genesis forecast was increased to “high” (greater than 50% probability of genesis). While the genesis of Paloma was well anticipated overall, the probability of genesis was not raised into the “high” category until just prior to genesis.


May see something similar with this, not so sure about the steering though. Convection may have decreased, but vorticity is picking up; and once the system consolidates some more it should begin to intensify.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys well I have to say I think we are in for another Paloma with 94L


just like the 2010 season its all fading away

I have to ask: where are some of you seeing a more poleward shift in 94L's future? CIMSS steering data still shows that low- to mid-level tropospheric ridging is sufficient to produce a slow WNW motion.
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
I thought that Augusta ME might have had a high of 32 F. With the 32 becoming 32 C which equals 90 F.

But it seems the high in Augusta ME was 47 F today. So just some fluky error.

Spywareblaster seems to be working. Thanks.


Great. Update now, then every couple of weeks.
give it some time KEEPEROFTHEGATE soon it will look deadly
winter weather blog for 2011

Link
On 94L it is unlikely to develop. Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is inhibiting develop, suppressing thunderstorm development and 94L has lost all major model support.
Summary

Westerly winds of 60 to 80 km/h will develop over southern sections of Greater Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and metro Vancouver tonight. Northwest winds up to 90 km/h will develop over west coast Vancouver Island this evening. This is a warning that potentially damaging winds are expected or occurring in these regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

Details

A deepening low pressure system is forecast to move from the north coast this evening and track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds reaching 90 km/h are expected over west coast Vancouver Island this evening and westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h are forecast to develop over Victoria, the Southern Gulf Islands and Vancouver tonight. Winds will abate early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
well any way this is what they said in our forcast last bit

OUTLOOK:(An increase in cloudiness and shower activity from Wednesday morning as cloudiness associated with a broad area of low pressure system over the southwest Caribbean drifts west to northwest) this is important anyway I am going to work tomorrow so by then we should have an idea of what's going on
so what is this sunlinepr maybe a possible invest (95L)
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Thank You Dr. and Enjoy the Upcoming Thanksgiving Holiday if nothing significant forms in the tropics after 94L comes ashore in Central America........... :)
I hope we don't get any tropical turkeys bruing this Thanksgiving and if there is I hope a cold front wil gobble gobble gobble them up!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so what is this sunlinepr maybe a possible invest (95L)


For the moment, just a trop. Wave..... checking models....
Conditions seem pretty favorable for 94L to develop, convection should start to slowly pickup again. IMO 50% chance of TC in the next 48 hours, but NHC will either increase to 30% or keep it at 20%.



That wave East of islands 84 hrs... Close to Venezuela....

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IDAHO ON TUESDAY. EXPECT
TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES WITH 3
TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. EXPECT 30 TO 40 MPH
WINDS IN THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN AND SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS WITH THIS
STORM AS WELL.
Dang Canucks are sending me their weather again..:(
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Dang Canucks are sending me their weather again..:(


We can't control our borders! ;)
Quoting wxvoyeur:


We can't control our borders! ;)
lol! Send beer, not snow!
Quoting wxvoyeur:


We can't control our borders! ;)


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
Quoting Orcasystems:


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
yeah, that would do it. You getting any weather your way Orca?
Quoting Orcasystems:


We were going to build a fence...
Then someone said, lets flash up the BBQ and have a beer... so I guess we forgot ;)
BTW...love your commercial!

a href="" target="_blank">Link
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
yeah, that would do it. You getting any weather your way Orca?


A little on the breezy side... and rain

Wind Warning

Details

A deepening low pressure system currently over the north coast will track across the southern interior tonight. In the wake of the low strong northwest winds up to 90 km/h will continue over West Vancouver Island tonight. Additionally, westerlies of 60 to 80 km/h will continue over Greater Victoria and the Southern Gulf Islands tonight and develop late this evening over metro Vancouver. Winds will gradually diminish early Tuesday morning as the low exits the interior.
Wind Advisory
Hazardous Weather Outlook


Overnight: A 30 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. South southwest wind between 14 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tuesday: A chance of rain before 11am, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Snow level 5300 feet lowering to 4700 feet. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Windy, with a southwest wind between 24 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
18W & 98S are gone.. Model performance on 94L is very similar to Tomas. CMC is out preforming with 21nm error. Was a little farther off yesterday. GFS ~72, has shown some skill (if we throw out yesterday). I still think Belize might bear the brunt. Roatan should see some rain from it too. HWRF is doing well so far on intensity (current 8kt error in the last 24hrs), it's leaning for a fairly weak storm.
Quoting Skyepony:
18W & 98S are gone.. Model performance on 94L is very similar to Tomas. CMC is out preforming with 21nm error. Was a little farther off yesterday. GFS ~72, has shown some skill (if we throw out yesterday). I still think Belize might bear the brunt. Roatan should see some rain from it too. HWRF is doing well so far on intensity (current 8kt error in the last 24hrs), it's leaning for a fairly weak storm.
Will it be strong enough to get named?
Quoting DoverWxwatchter:
Not getting popups on other sites I go to. One time I got 14 pop up pages when opening a blog here.

Not sure if the extra features are worth 10 bucks or not, to be honest.


I have adblockplus already. I'll try the spywareblaster.

A nasty bit of rogue software "Windows Security Essentials 2011" has been making the rounds in my circle. It's one of those fake programs that turns off your security software and flashes fake security alerts on your computer. Malwarebytes was the only security software I have that took care of it.
Even if you don't run it, I think it is good to update your security software daily. And if you get that rogue software, run the malwarebytes immediately.


I got this one. If you have windows, restart your computer in basic mode (F8 when booting), then go to start\user\whatever you are\AppData\local\temp\ and then eliminate the *.exe that starts with numbers. Then run your security software to get the rest of the files.
I think 94L will not make it to TD status. Conditions are only marginally favorable and convection is almost all gone. Pressures have risen in that region as well. I believe the 2010 season has come to an end imo.
Quoting robert88:
I think 94L will not make it to TD status. Conditions are only marginally favorable and convection is almost all gone. Pressures have risen in that region as well. I believe the 2010 season has come to an end imo.
I think you are right. It's time to let go of 2010 and move on to postseason analysis, the playoffs and superbowl..... Wait,.... I think I am confusing the tropics and the NFl. Never mind.
Whether or not it forms into a TS, a lot of rain will fall and can be just as destructive.

The Mosquito Coast will be full of newly hatched ones very soon.
Wake up Ike!


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...THE FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 160847Z - 161115Z

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE...PRIMARILY AFTER 10-11Z OVER
THE FL PANHANDLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE WW.

CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM SOUTH OF APALACHICOLA
WWD AND INTERSECTS A NE-SW ORIENTED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTH OF GULF SHORES SWWD TO JUST OFF SERN TIP OF LA. ACTIVITY
IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRENGTHENING SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP NWD
THROUGH THE WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO AL AS PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
AND LIFTS NWD INTO THE TN VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH NEWD EJECTING VORT MAX. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A RESERVOIR OF
70F DEWPOINTS OVER THE NRN GULF SOUTH OF E-W BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...AND IS
ALREADY APPROACHING THE COAST NEAR APALACHICOLA. REMAINING PORTIONS
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY NOT MOVE INLAND UNTIL AFTER 11Z.
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
STORMS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY WHERE THE MOIST WARM SECTOR MOVES
ONSHORE. LARGE HODOGRAPHS ACCOMPANYING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL
PROMOTE A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS...BOWING SEGMENTS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE COASTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAKE ONLY LIMITED INLAND
PROGRESS THIS MORNING SUGGESTING THE THREAT AREA SHOULD REMAIN
SMALL.

..DIAL.. 11/16/2010


Afew hours old but if not a closed low, very close to being one, though weak.
Good morning. A lovely 55 degrees here.
good morning guys I was just looking at the models and I am not liking the BAMD model even more so between 72 and 168 hours but anyway I expect the rest of the models will follow soon
182. IKE
SQUAWK...thanks for the heads up, but the rain is moving east of here now.

As far as 94L...

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
430 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE NW
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THU.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THU AND REACH THE WATERS N OF THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS SAT.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys I was just looking at the models and I am not liking the BAMD model even more so between 72 and 168 hours but anyway I expect the rest of the models will follow soon
I don't think anything will come of it.
IKE you always believe everything they say well let me tell you I am waiting for them to be correct and it has been a long time and a long future it will be but anyway look I never trusted that plus it always changes and most times drastically so it may seem dead now but this afternoon it may very well look healthy and strong
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS MINIMAL. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF
THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT DRIFTS WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/CANGIALOSI
NNNN


Still at 20% and I really thought it would say near 0% this morning the way it is looking.
186. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
IKE you always believe everything they say well let me tell you I am waiting for them to be correct and it has been a long time and a long future it will be but anyway look I never trusted that plus it always changes and most times drastically so it may seem dead now but this afternoon it may very well look healthy and strong


Where did I say that I believed that? Please answer.
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I think you are right. It's time to let go of 2010 and move on to postseason analysis, the playoffs and superbowl..... Wait,.... I think I am confusing the tropics and the NFl. Never mind.


Goodmorning I need coffee!

Carb dist is almost dead.

I was almost fead once, 30 years ago
I think the season is over for the us. There may be some small something spin up in the carb or a semi trop east of bermuda but basically, I think its done
I killed the blog!
Quoting Autistic2:
I think the season is over for the us. There may be some small something spin up in the carb or a semi trop east of bermuda but basically, I think its done
I think so too and also pray so. Mexico and St Lucia etc received more than enough damage and lives lost.
191. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:
I killed the blog!


Actually time killed it. The time on the tropical season ran out for the lower 48, 2 months ago.

I hope it's finished for everyone.
I have a reason for why the NHC kept 94L at 20% is because the T storm and showers have increased over the center although minimal and it is also organising it self slowly

well sorry IKE I thought that is what you intended when you posted that
Jason..It's all Hood:P

These waves are incredible! Surfers ride massive 50-foot waves off Ireland