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Little change to Brazilian tropical disturbance

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2010

An area of disturbed weather off the coast of Brazil, near 17S 38W, has changed little over the past day. It has a slight potential to develop into subtropical or tropical depression early next week. Satellite winds estimates from the WindSat instrument show an elongated area of converging winds, but no organized surface circulation. Satellite loops show little organization to the cloud pattern, and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. Wind shear over the region is about 20 knots, which is rather high, and should keep any development slow. Sea surface temperatures are about 28°C, about 1°C above average, and plenty warm enough to support a tropical storm. The system is small, and this will limit its potential to become a tropical cyclone.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the Brazilian disturbance.

The ECMWF, UKMET, and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of development a fair amount in recent runs. Phase space diagrams from Florida State University show that this storm has less of a warm core than before, meaning it would probably be classifiable as a subtropical storm if it gets more organized and achieves surface wind speeds of at least 39 mph. The system does not appear to be a threat to bring heavy rains to the Brazilian coast. I give this storm a low (< 30% chance) of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression by Monday. The storm should move to the south or southeast away from the coast. Only six known tropical or subtropical cyclones have formed in the South Atlantic. Tropical cyclones rarely form in the South Atlantic Ocean due to strong upper-level wind shear, cool water temperatures, and the lack of an initial disturbance to get things spinning (no African waves or Intertropical Convergence Zone exist in the proper locations in the South Atlantic to help spawn tropical storms).

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
Portlight and the Liberty Schooner are sponsoring "The Haitian Food Voyage," shipping 10,000 pounds of rice to Haiti. Thanks to your generous donations, the mission is set to sail to Haiti during the second week of April. Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate to this worthy cause.


Figure 2. R.Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, assists a woman who has just received a new walker from Portlight. The woman was injured when a 3-story building collapsed on her during the January earthquake.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning Dr Masters,

Thank you for the update.

Hope you enjoy the weekend and please see what you can do to help us get some "normal" warmth down here in South Florida. This winter has been crazy cold, breaking records for cold temps almost daily! Those of us in the Sub Tropics cannot deal with all this cold for months on end! LOL

Hi everyone,

take care,
Gams


Myspace Comments
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2.0 Myspace Layouts


Hi I like the new wunder maps! :)
Good Morning Dr Masters,

Thank You for the update....

This site is getting better and better and I want to say thank you for all you do for all of us here....

Taco :0)
Giant hailstorm strikes Melbourne, causing flooding and chaos

UPDATE 12.00am: Hail blanketed Melbourne like snow as a mini-cyclone storm lashed the city, causing transport chaos and forcing the cancellation of sporting events and a festival.

SA and Melbournians should expect another dose of nasty weather today, with rain of up to 100mm forecast..

Victoria Police spokeswoman Sharon Darcy last night uged people to stay away from the CBD.

%u201CWe%u2019d much prefer people stay away tonight," she said.



Nineteen millimetres of rain bucketed down on the city in less than 18 minutes this afternoon, the weather bureau said.

The huge storm cell, which hit at 2.40pm, resulted in a total of 26mm of rain in Melbourne in less an hour, bringing emergency services to a grinding halt as reports of flooding and storm damage came in from across the city.

Hail pummelled city streets and brought traffic to a standstill, with some residents reporting hail stones as big as 5cm.

"It was a very dangerous thunderstorm,'' the bureau's senior forecaster, Richard Carlyon, said.

"We don't often see storm cells like that.''

Southern Cross train station had to be evacuated as heavy rain tore a hole in its roof and a deluge splashed down on the train platforms.

Train and tram services faced widespread delays as winds peaked at 100km/h.

"This is an extreme weather condition and something Melbourne hasn't experienced for quite some time,'' a Yarra Trams spokesman told 3AW radio as some trams were left stranded between mini-lakes forming across the tracks.

The storm forced the cancellation of friendly game between Brisbane and Geelong.

In an ironic twist, the game was only rescheduled to Melbourne at the last minute because of poor weather all week on the Gold Coast, where the match was supposed to be played.

Flemington's Super Saturday races were also postponed as rain poured down the stairs at the grandstand like a waterfall.

"It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through,'' said Josh Bell, who was in the members' grandstand when the storm hit.

"Marble-sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes.

"The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed.''

The rain continued for about 30 minutes, overpowering the sewerage system and forcing the water down the grandstand's public stairs.

"The track's just not up to safe racing,'' Racing Victoria's chief steward Terry Bailey told the Seven Network after the race was rescheduled to next weekend.

Racehorse King Pulse also suffered serious injuries after the hail storm spooked the horse and it broke free, slipping over twice.

In the CBD, water had flooded some intersections nearly knee-deep. Shopping centres were cleared out.

The Moomba water festival along the Yarra River had to be shut down as well out of fears of further storms.

A storm warning is still in place for Melbourne and surrounding areas for the remainder of the day.

The State Emergency Service has been swamped with more than 300 calls for help, primarily from the city's western suburbs.

The freak autumn storm struck about 2pm.

The weather bureau reported tennis-ball sized hail at Ferntree Gully and more than 800 lightning strikes across the metropolitan area.

Roads were blanketed in ice so thick it looked like snow.

Cars were forced to a halt in the city centre, with some abandoned.

Reports of damage flooded in from across the city, including caved-in roofs.

Highpoint shopping centre was evacuated.

The Domain Tunnel has been closed to traffic with Flinders St also closed Westbound with flooding.

Drivers have been warned about flooding near Kings Way and heavy ice on the Monash Freeway.

CBD intersections including Little Bourke and Spencer St, King St and Collins St were closed off, causing gridlock.

Traffic lights in South Melbourne were blank, causing intersection jams.

Two cars were left floating under a rail bridge at Ferrars and York Sts, South Melbourne, after the drivers misjudged the depth of water.

Ben Eisentraut, of pet store Petstock, ran into the water to help a young woman whose Ford Fiesta was sinking.

%u201CThe car was floating,%u201D he said. %u201CI pulled it back, then some others helped me drag it out.%u201D

Vicroads has advised drivers to keep their headlights on at all times and allow greater safety distance between their car and the vehicle in front.

A car was reportedly stuck under a bridge on Kensington Rd, Ascot Vale.

The West Gate Fwy and Citylink were clogged with traffic, with the on-off ramps in gridlock.

At Moomba, festival crowds were caught by surprise in the thunderous deluge. Parents desperately shielded their children from the huge hailstones. Tonight's fireworks were cancelled.

Melton, on Melbourne's northwest fringe, was one of the first suburbs to feel the storm's wrath.

Hail the size of golf balls hammered the township while shops were flooded and roofs collapsed.

A man is lucky to be alive after his sports car lost control on the Melton Highway about 2.30pm, skidding for 100m, hitting a driveway making it airborne and ploughing into a tree.

A rural ambulance helicopter en route to a road accident had to make an emergency landing.

A spokesman said the helicopter's side window popped off its hinges, forcing the helicopter to land in a paddock near Daylesford.

The helicopter was on the way to a road accident in Daylesford at the time.

At the height of the storm, police and emergency service crews warned Brunswick residents to close their doors and windows to avoid inhaling toxic smoke from a fire in Sydney Rd.























Video

Video
Queensland flooding news video
Good morning.

We made it through the night without losing power here. The snow has been lighter than we feared, and in the first little bits of light it looks like only an additional 6 inches may have fallen overnight. Light snow and gusty winds are still present but the blizzard warning has expired. The temperature is down to 12 degrees and will continue to fall today, likely remaining in the single digits and lower teens throughout the weekend.

As soon as we dig out though we have another major blizzard poised to move in on Sunday night. It looks like we're finally getting the kind of storm train that you people on the eastern seaboard have been getting all winter lol.

Current Satellite:



Next Blizzard already on the way:


Quoting Levi32:
Good morning.

We made it through the night without losing power here. The snow has been lighter than we feared, and in the first little bits of light it looks like only an additional 6 inches may have fallen overnight. Light snow and gusty winds are still present but the blizzard warning has expired. The temperature is down to 12 degrees and will continue to fall today, likely remaining in the single digits and lower teens throughout the weekend.

As soon as we dig out though we have another major blizzard poised to move in on Sunday night. It looks like we're finally getting the kind of storm train that you people on the eastern seaboard have been getting all winter lol.

Current Satellite:



Next Blizzard already on the way:



they will come one after another for ya till mid april levi ya might get a springwinter



Dr Bill Gray's rebuttal to an op-ed piece in the BOSTON GLOBE.


http://icecap.us/images/uploads/Gray_Rebuttal_to_Emanuel.pdf
Ausssie! Those pics are incredible!!!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Giant hailstorm strikes Melbourne, causing flooding and chaos

UPDATE 12.00am: Hail blanketed Melbourne like snow as a mini-cyclone storm lashed the city, causing transport chaos and forcing the cancellation of sporting events and a festival.

SA and Melbournians should expect another dose of nasty weather today, with rain of up to 100mm forecast..

Victoria Police spokeswoman Sharon Darcy last night uged people to stay away from the CBD.

%u201CWe%u2019d much prefer people stay away tonight," she said.



Nineteen millimetres of rain bucketed down on the city in less than 18 minutes this afternoon, the weather bureau said.

The huge storm cell, which hit at 2.40pm, resulted in a total of 26mm of rain in Melbourne in less an hour, bringing emergency services to a grinding halt as reports of flooding and storm damage came in from across the city.

Hail pummelled city streets and brought traffic to a standstill, with some residents reporting hail stones as big as 5cm.

"It was a very dangerous thunderstorm,'' the bureau's senior forecaster, Richard Carlyon, said.

"We don't often see storm cells like that.''

Southern Cross train station had to be evacuated as heavy rain tore a hole in its roof and a deluge splashed down on the train platforms.

Train and tram services faced widespread delays as winds peaked at 100km/h.

"This is an extreme weather condition and something Melbourne hasn't experienced for quite some time,'' a Yarra Trams spokesman told 3AW radio as some trams were left stranded between mini-lakes forming across the tracks.

The storm forced the cancellation of friendly game between Brisbane and Geelong.

In an ironic twist, the game was only rescheduled to Melbourne at the last minute because of poor weather all week on the Gold Coast, where the match was supposed to be played.

Flemington's Super Saturday races were also postponed as rain poured down the stairs at the grandstand like a waterfall.

"It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through,'' said Josh Bell, who was in the members' grandstand when the storm hit.

"Marble-sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes.

"The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed.''

The rain continued for about 30 minutes, overpowering the sewerage system and forcing the water down the grandstand's public stairs.

"The track's just not up to safe racing,'' Racing Victoria's chief steward Terry Bailey told the Seven Network after the race was rescheduled to next weekend.

Racehorse King Pulse also suffered serious injuries after the hail storm spooked the horse and it broke free, slipping over twice.

In the CBD, water had flooded some intersections nearly knee-deep. Shopping centres were cleared out.

The Moomba water festival along the Yarra River had to be shut down as well out of fears of further storms.

A storm warning is still in place for Melbourne and surrounding areas for the remainder of the day.

The State Emergency Service has been swamped with more than 300 calls for help, primarily from the city's western suburbs.

The freak autumn storm struck about 2pm.

The weather bureau reported tennis-ball sized hail at Ferntree Gully and more than 800 lightning strikes across the metropolitan area.

Roads were blanketed in ice so thick it looked like snow.

Cars were forced to a halt in the city centre, with some abandoned.

Reports of damage flooded in from across the city, including caved-in roofs.

Highpoint shopping centre was evacuated.

The Domain Tunnel has been closed to traffic with Flinders St also closed Westbound with flooding.

Drivers have been warned about flooding near Kings Way and heavy ice on the Monash Freeway.

CBD intersections including Little Bourke and Spencer St, King St and Collins St were closed off, causing gridlock.

Traffic lights in South Melbourne were blank, causing intersection jams.

Two cars were left floating under a rail bridge at Ferrars and York Sts, South Melbourne, after the drivers misjudged the depth of water.

Ben Eisentraut, of pet store Petstock, ran into the water to help a young woman whose Ford Fiesta was sinking.

%u201CThe car was floating,%u201D he said. %u201CI pulled it back, then some others helped me drag it out.%u201D

Vicroads has advised drivers to keep their headlights on at all times and allow greater safety distance between their car and the vehicle in front.

A car was reportedly stuck under a bridge on Kensington Rd, Ascot Vale.

The West Gate Fwy and Citylink were clogged with traffic, with the on-off ramps in gridlock.

At Moomba, festival crowds were caught by surprise in the thunderous deluge. Parents desperately shielded their children from the huge hailstones. Tonight's fireworks were cancelled.

Melton, on Melbourne's northwest fringe, was one of the first suburbs to feel the storm's wrath.

Hail the size of golf balls hammered the township while shops were flooded and roofs collapsed.

A man is lucky to be alive after his sports car lost control on the Melton Highway about 2.30pm, skidding for 100m, hitting a driveway making it airborne and ploughing into a tree.

A rural ambulance helicopter en route to a road accident had to make an emergency landing.

A spokesman said the helicopter's side window popped off its hinges, forcing the helicopter to land in a paddock near Daylesford.

The helicopter was on the way to a road accident in Daylesford at the time.

At the height of the storm, police and emergency service crews warned Brunswick residents to close their doors and windows to avoid inhaling toxic smoke from a fire in Sydney Rd.























Video

Video

seasonal transition in full swing i see
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
they will come one after another for ya till mid april levi ya might get a springwinter


Not necessarily. We've only had one major snowstorm all winter until now due to the same pattern that brought the incredible winter to you guys in the lower 48. The first half of March looks to be cold and snowy here, but the 2nd half of March looks like it will see a return to warm here and cold in the eastern United States. After that I think April and May will be warmer down there for you guys and winter will come to a close.

Next storm lining up SE of the Kamchatka Peninsula:

Where in Alaska do you live Levi?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Where in Alaska do you live Levi?


Homer, the big red dot on this map:

Here's a closer look on the radar. That big dot covers a lot lol.

img src=" " alt="" />

VS




Why the heck are the SSTs COLDER today than 3 days ago and we're supposed to be warming up?
any cool down should be brief i doubt we get any sub zero artic air now and if we do hopefully won't last long sun getting strong now just outside and its real warm in the direct sun its giving good heat now the ground is already soft here
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any cool down should be brief i doubt we get any sub zero artic air now and if we do hopefully won't last long sun getting strong now just outside and its real warm in the direct sun its giving good heat now the ground is already soft here

Interesting, the S.Atlantic and EPAC is also colder. The MDR and entire North Atlantic is colder than 3 days ago as well...A trend?
we could hit 50 or more today last time we hit 50 or more was dec 2 2009
Lol funny. 5-day SST change:

Sea ice is making an epic recovery!







Hey StormW...what can you say about the recent colding trend of SSTs in the Atlantic when it's supposed to be warming up?
havn't seen this message in a while

Quoting CycloneUK:
Sea ice is making an epic recovery!









And that's really impressive considering all the blocking that's been over the arctic this winter. I would have expected sea ice to be a lot less than that right now.

Quoting StormW:


According to the NAO forecast, it's possible the NAO could go slightly positive for a little bit. With that said, a slight cool down would not be unexpected. However, keep in mind, SST's are still warmer than average, and this past season, were cooler than normal, and we still pulled out 9 named storms.

Another thing we look at is, as far as conditions being more favorable, mainly in the sense of wind shear, is how warm is the Atlantic Basin, relative to the EPAC, mainly the equatorial region. Even if we go to neutral, or had a very weak El Nino lingering, if the Atlantic is anomalously warmer, it kinda offsets the other.


That's a good point. If the Atlantic out-performs the East Pacific, even if both are warmer than normal, the greatest focus of heat and upward motion would still be over the Atlantic.
Quoting StormW:
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Good to see you Gams!


Hi Storm, I am around when I can and I do lurk here sometimes! Good to see you too.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Hey StormW...what can you say about the recent colding trend of SSTs in the Atlantic when it's supposed to be warming up?

My comment is that we have only a couple of satellite instruments that can measure SST when clouds are present and they are rather coarse, have fairly small swaths, and the revisit rate is long. There have been *some* clouds present, so a 3 day or 5 day change *could* just be updated data where week-old data (or longer in higher latitude places that are cloudy for months) once was.

At the very least, I can guarantee that we do not have any actual SST measurements for every single pixel in those plots every day. Sometimes for far longer.

For example, in this plot, which is populated by the latest measured SST from MODIS on the Aqua satellite, which passes over this region at 19 Z every day



contains SST data over 2 weeks old.

(Plot of data age:)
Trade winds are still quite weak across the eastern Atlantic, due to a weaker-than-normal Azores High, as one would expect with a negative NAO.

Surface Wind Anomalies:


Sea-level Pressure Anomalies:
And, Hi Y'all.
Quoting atmoaggie:
And, Hi Y'all.


Hey Atmo. That's a good point about the SSTs. I don't think the cooling is a significant trend, though it would be nice if it was.
hey altestic -

Look, you have 3 posts in here saying "OMG the SSTs are cooling", and that statement has already been disproved with ONE post by Levi.

It's not a trend, and it seems like you, by repeatedly stating it, are trying to make it one in some peoples minds.



hey altestic -

I thought it an interesting comparison in the data 3 days apart, even if I have doubts about how real it is. Pay no attention to the tude you got from that one living up to his moniker.
Yeah Altestic do what atmo said just ignore that troll.
still the Quote is not fix too where it will hid some ones commet if you had them on Ignore



am thinking about asking the Admin to re move the Quote if they cant get it fixs too where you have some one on Ignore you cant see there commet you can see there name but not the commets or some in like that


you cant have both the Ignore and the Quote on here at the same time some in of one of the too need to be fixs
Quoting Tazmanian:
still the Quote is not fix too where it will hid some ones commet if you had them on Ignore



am thinking about asking the Admin to re move the Quote if they cant get it fixs too where you have some one on Ignore you cant see there commet you can see there name but not the commets or some in like that


you cant have both the Ignore and the Quote on here at the same time some in of one of the too need to be fixs


Sorry about that I didn't realize he was a troll until I really looked at his handle. I'll remove the quote.
Quoting StormW:


Now if someone would put a cork in that hole between Cuba and the Yucatan we would be all set. :)
Lots or pretty graphs today. Ooohh...
Quoting tornadofan:
Lots or pretty graphs today. Ooohh...


Must be getting close to hurricane season.
The snow is still coming down lol.

Click for Homer, Alaska Forecast



MODIS image from yesterday afternoon showing the blizzard powdering everything white. The storm is centered near the very center of the image.



do we get to 50 looks possible
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)
Next blizzard forecast to be strengthening right at the southern coastline, bottoming out in the 960s, right about where the first blizzard was at landfall, although the first one was weakening by that point.

Canadian Model (CMC) 60-hour Surface:


GFS 54-hour Surface:
Quoting taco2me61:
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)


Yes they reached the target amount yesterday :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


do we get to 50 looks possible

We *might* see 70 F today in SE LA for the first time since Jan 22(?). Might have to wait until Mon or Tues, though. Had a couple of Jan days of 70+, otherwise has been since mid Dec since we had our usual winter highs. (Is a little above normal, but we normally have 70 F for a day or 2 ahead of every cold front in winter)

I can remember riding my new bike on Christmas day in shorts in the mid-80s...and sweating while doing it...
As far as the sea surface temps cooling a bit across the eastern atlantic we'll some esemble members from the GFS seem to finally develop something close to a proper Azores high which has been missing in a big way this winter.
How long is the NAO expected to be positive? A week or so, or enough to actually last into hurricane season before it becomes negative again?
Quoting taco2me61:
I asked this question on here a few days ago
but not sure if the answer was given...
Did they raise enough money to send StormW
to the Conf????

Taco :0)
yes i beleive just over 500 was received so everything is good to go
Thank You Levi,
I was wondering if I needed to
send more????

I want to also thank everyone in here that was able to do that for StormW....


Taco :0)

I think the Gulf still has a long ways to go. Cold water is spreading to the Caribbean now, too. The far NW Caribbean is also below average.
Quoting atmoaggie:

We *might* see 70 F today in SE LA for the first time since Jan 22(?). Might have to wait until Mon or Tues, though. Had a couple of Jan days of 70+, otherwise has been since mid Dec since we had our usual winter highs. (Is a little above normal, but we normally have 70 F for a day or 2 ahead of every cold front in winter)

I can remember riding my new bike on Christmas day in shorts in the mid-80s...and sweating while doing it...
the forecast tomorrow calls for 55 or higher that will be nice mild the entire week with temps around high 40's till end of week
Quoting hurricane23:
As far as the sea surface temps cooling a bit across the eastern atlantic we'll some esemble members from the GFS seem to finally develop something close to a proper Azores high which has been missing in a big way this winter.


Yeah, the storm track looks like it may lighten up on the far eastern Atlantic over the next couple weeks. That wouldn't explain the cooling of the SSTs that has already occurred during the last 5 days though. Atmo may be right that it's a satellite thing, but who knows.

GFS Ensembles Initial Conditions (no solid Azores High north of 30N):


GFS Ensembles 180-hour (stronger high building between 30N and 50N over the NE Atlantic):


GFS Ensembles 288-hour (Azores High still weak but is at least there over the NE Atlantic):
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah, the storm track looks like it may lighten up on the far eastern Atlantic over the next couple weeks. That wouldn't explain the cooling of the SSTs that has already occurred during the last 5 days though. Atmo may be right that it's a satellite thing, but who knows.

Don't ever say "Atmo may be right" There will be no living with him on this blog if he is right. Only kidding people, he may be right on this one. Unusual to see a continuous cooling trend this late (or early) in the season.
GFS at 240 hours has a 1037mb Azores High.

Link
Even thought it's been sunny with mid'30's to 40's for several days here in SW Mich., we still have close to a foot of snow and the lake is completely frozen over. However, rain is predicted, so the melt will speed up significantly. I always hate to see the snow go. I sure do like winter.


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
any cool down should be brief i doubt we get any sub zero artic air now and if we do hopefully won't last long sun getting strong now just outside and its real warm in the direct sun its giving good heat now the ground is already soft here
Good afternoon to everyone. Things are quiet weatherwise for the lower 48, except for the blizzard in Alaska.

I am here in Dallas-Ft. Worth, TX, where the temperatures have finally returned to normal. Right now we're about 71F, Pt Sunny, and breezy! Beats the temps in the 20's, 30's and 40's we had the majority of Feb 2010.



156 hours


Valid 00z Saturday
Could be related to the SST's.

850mb Temp Anomaly
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,

good afternoon all
929

ACUS01 KWNS 061948

SWODY1

SPC AC 061946



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0146 PM CST SAT MAR 06 2010



VALID 062000Z - 071200Z



...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SMALL CHANGES MADE TO

THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES.



..MEAD.. 03/06/2010



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST SAT MAR 06 2010/



COLD UPPER LOW WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING SWD OFF THE CA COAST WILL

TURN EWD TO JUST W OF LAX/SAN BY 12Z SUN. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE SWRN

STATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BOTH MOISTURE AND

INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TONIGHT...SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AT LEAST

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL TO

THE W...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED THRU THE

PERIOD AND WELL BELOW ANY SEVERE LEVELS.



STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ONSHORE SRN CA OVERNIGHT BUT ANY

INSTABILITY WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS WWD TO THE

UPPER LOW CENTER. GIVEN WEAK UPWARD MOTION AND SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS

THAT DO OCCUR SHOULD BE LIMITED TO COASTAL REGION.



COLD CORE UPPER LOW NWRN NEB WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON TOP OF

SCENTRAL U.S. RIDGE AS IT MOVES EWD TO IA OVERNIGHT. SUFFICIENT

HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON EWD ACROSS NEB FOR A FEW LOW

TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR

MASS...SPREADING EWD INTO IA AND NRN MO THIS EVENING

277

NWUS22 KWNS 062106

STAHRY



SPC TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM REPORTS

UNOFFICIAL - FOR OFFICIAL REPORTS, SEE PUBLICATION 'STORM DATA'

FOR 06CST SAT MAR 6 2010 THRU 15CST SAT MAR 6 2010



EVENT LOCATION REMARKS (CST)TIME



********** NO SEVERE REPORTS RECEIVED BY SPC **********
Grothar! (Funny old codger)
.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
How long is the NAO expected to be positive? A week or so, or enough to actually last into hurricane season before it becomes negative again?


It appears the NAO will climb toward neutral(00's positive or negative) while the AO continues to make a leap. The models put that at a positive 1.5-3.0!

But by Saint Patrick's Day, both the AO and NAO look to plummet once more while the PNA goes positive.
Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 18 min 2 sec ago

18 °F
Snow Blowing Snow
Windchill: -1 °F
Humidity: 86%
Dew Point: 14 °F
Wind: 26 mph from the SW

Wind Gust: 31 mph
Pressure: 29.37 in (Steady)
Visibility: 0.5 miles
Elevation: 82 ft
Just saw there was an earthquake in the mediteranean sea within the last week and just wondered if that had anything to do with the wave that hit the cruise ship last week.
Sanford Conditions=Sunny

Temp=61F

Humidity=16%

Dewpoint=15F

Winds light NW at 5-10MPH

I just went out for a walk and couldn't believe how gorgeous it was outside!
Quoting weatherbro:
Sanford Conditions=Sunny

Temp=61F

Humidity=16%

Dewpoint=15F

Winds light NW at 5-10MPH

I just went out for a walk and couldn't believe how gorgeous it was outside!


we got to a high of 51 today here clear sunny skies tomorrow and mon same a tad warmer highs mid 50's or slighly higher
where can one gets imagery of the south Atlantic disturbance?
Latest freeze since 1996 this morning: Link
Quoting weatherbro:


It appears the NAO will climb toward neutral(00's positive or negative) while the AO continues to make a leap. The models put that at a positive 1.5-3.0!

But by Saint Patrick's Day, both the AO and NAO look to plummet once more while the PNA goes positive.

K, that's what I wanted to hear. So this "positiveness" is not going to be a long-term event at all.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
where can one gets imagery of the south Atlantic disturbance?


Here

Or Here

Or Here
78. WAHA
You better look at this; the south atlantic disturbance he was talking about looks like it's circulating! If this does become a storm, keep in mind that I have a complete name of lists for the south atlantic, starting with Abrew.
It's been unseasonably cool here in the Caymans, so I suspect the water temperatures are slightly below average.Nevertheless I suspect the upcoming hurricane season in 3 months will be an active one full of surprises, just my opinion of course.
Quoting stormpetrol:
It's been unseasonably cool here in the Caymans, so I suspect the water temperatures are slightly below average.Nevertheless I suspect the upcoming hurricane season in 3 months will be an active one full of surprises, just my opinion of course.


It is cooler than normal there. You're right the edge of the cold winter to the north, but warm waters and seasonable temperatures are just to the south.

Quoting WAHA:
You better look at this; the south atlantic disturbance he was talking about looks like it's circulating! If this does become a storm, keep in mind that I have a complete name of lists for the south atlantic, starting with Abrew.


Yeah well it looked a ton better two days ago. It had a well-defined tight, closed circulation and everything. Now it's just a broad trough with spread-out and disorganized convection. I suspect the 20 knots of westerly shear was just too much for the poor thing. It's running out of time now. Of course there's still a chance, but I'm starting to lean towards less so.
82. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah well it looked a ton better two days ago. It had a well-defined tight, closed circulation and everything. Now it's just a broad trough with spread-out and disorganized convection. I suspect the 20 knots of westerly shear was just too much for the poor thing. It's running out of time now. Of course there's still a chance, but I'm starting to lean towards less so.
I meant just north of the system that you were talking about. That is what I'm talking about.
Quoting WAHA:
I meant just north of the system that you were talking about. That is what I'm talking about.


You mean south...lol. I was talking about the northern system east of Caravelas, which I have been tracking for 3 days now. You must be looking at the system southeast of Sao Paulo just off the coast, which does have a lot of apparent spin. That spin is not a surface circulation but a mid-upper shortwave that has moved NE from over Uruguay today. The models can't decide which area to use for cyclogenesis. The latest 12z GFS has compromized by developing the low to the north, east of Caravelas, and moving it SW under the shortwave SE of Sao Paulo. This would technically be a subtropical low at that point, which is shown by the phase diagram below, but something tells me they wouldn't name it if this situation came to pass.

The other possibility is the northern trough just fizzles and the mid-level circulation associated with the cut-off shortwave near Sao Paulo works its way to the surface. However this would make the low even more cold-core than the former possibility, and hence even less chance of it being named. The system would get picked up quite fast by the westerlies and convert to fully extratropical.

At any rate, a subtropical system is still possible in either of the two areas, but I doubt we'll be able to get a name out of the NHC. Heck they didn't even want to give Catarina credit for being tropical.

Also, the CMC, which was previously developing this into a hurricane, has become confuzzled since yesterday morning and no longer has a clear picture of the lows at hand. The low that it does develop ends up being fully tropical for a short time on the model, but that doesn't make sense because by that time the model has the system over 24C waters and already being picked up by the westerlies.

86. WAHA
Okay, thanks, Levi! Do you think Abrew is the name, if so?
Quoting WAHA:
Okay, thanks, Levi! Do you think Abrew is the name, if so?


I don't know, did you find an official list? There wasn't one back when Catarina formed, which is why it got named Catarina.
88. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


I don't know, did you find an official list? There wasn't one back when Catarina formed, which is why it got named Catarina.

I came up with my own. I wish to send it to the comitee (or whatever it's called).
Quoting Levi32:


I don't know, did you find an official list? There wasn't one back when Catarina formed, which is why it got named Catarina.


Here is a link you might find interestin:

Link
Quoting Grothar:


Here is a link you might find interestin:

Link


Thanks that is an interesting article. Yeah I remember all the NHC's troubles with that storm. I laughed when I found out their hurricane models wouldn't run. I remember thinking why don't they just forecast the dang thing themselves? That's what they're there for...they don't HAVE to have a computer do it for them right? And then they had doubts the system was even tropical....LOL.

Oh well...
Looks like the storm that was expected in Australia was worse than expected..10cm hail. Impressive flooding in the video.

BLOODIED festival-goers, spooked racehorses, smashed windows and torrential rain inside major buildings were some of the surreal scenes unfolding across Melbourne in one of the most intense storms in years.

Quoting Levi32:


Thanks that is an interesting article. Yeah I remember all the NHC's troubles with that storm. I laughed when I found out their hurricane models wouldn't run. I remember thinking why don't they just forecast the dang thing themselves? That's what they're there for...they don't HAVE to have a computer do it for them right? And then they had doubts the system was even tropical....LOL.

Oh well...


Yes, Like watching a rerun of an old Star Trek. "Oh, computer.........! Afraid to make a decision until the computer said it was OK.
93. WAHA
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, Like watching a rerun of an old Star Trek. "Oh, computer.........! Afraid to make a decision until the computer said it was OK.
yeah i don't want the same with this one.
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, Like watching a rerun of an old Star Trek. "Oh, computer.........! Afraid to make a decision until the computer said it was OK.


LoL, anyone remember the HAL 9000 :)



HAL9000
Average time between comments on the blog tonight 17.5 minutes. Now if atmoaggie were on he would say "Actually, Grothar that would be 17.6 minutes. Only kidding Atmo! You keep us all on our toes.

Anyone figure out why the sudden cooling of the SST's in the Atlantic? If would be a good question for Dr. Master's for new blog entry.
Quoting Ossqss:


LoL, anyone remember the HAL 9000 :)



I am sure Dave does.
Quoting Grothar:
Average time between comments on the blog tonight 17.5 minutes. Now if atmoaggie were on he would say "Actually, Grothar that would be 17.6 minutes. Only kidding Atmo! You keep us all on our toes.

Anyone figure out why the sudden cooling of the SST's in the Atlantic? If would be a good question for Dr. Master's for new blog entry.


I'm not sure. The usual influencing factors that have been making the SSTs warm (weak trade winds, warm temps in the tropics) have not changed over the last week, so I'm at a loss for explanations. Atmo may be right that it's just variability with the satellite's ability to measure through clouds. I seriously doubt the cooling trend will continue.
98. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:


I'm not sure. The usual influencing factors that have been making the SSTs warm (weak trade winds, warm temps in the tropics) have not changed over the last week, so I'm at a loss for explanations. Atmo may be right that it's just variability with the satellite's ability to measure through clouds. I seriously doubt the cooling trend will continue.


I would post the image, but the link has more information, such as the standard deviation used to determine the anomaly. The use the average over a 20 year period. Very interesting link of SST' up to last week.

Link
Edited -- Could the Ocean currents have played role with the unusually cold weather in parts of the Northern Hemisphere on the SST's? I believe I read about some changes in the North Atlantic currents a while ago. Just a thought. We don't know very much about the dynamics/impacts of deep water currents on many things. :)
wow not much going on in here tonight.....

So I will say this....

MARCO
Quoting taco2me61:
wow not much going on in here tonight.....

So I will say this....

MARCO

POLO

How are you, taco?
Doing Good Atmo as long as they don't call me back in....
LOL How about you....

Taco :0)
Quoting Grothar:
Average time between comments on the blog tonight 17.5 minutes. Now if atmoaggie were on he would say "Actually, Grothar that would be 17.6 minutes. Only kidding Atmo! You keep us all on our toes.

Anyone figure out why the sudden cooling of the SST's in the Atlantic? If would be a good question for Dr. Master's for new blog entry.

Alright, Gro...

Thinking further on that...the values didn't change *that* much...and there does seem to be a little smoothing in the SST anomaly plots. It is possible that an erroneously cold, cloud-contaminated pixel(s) got into the data.

There is no such thing as a perfect cloud mask algorithm. Aggressive ones remove a lot of valid data. The more amicable ones *do* allow a slightly cloud-contaminated (thereby erroneously cool) pixel in now and again. Not saying I can verify that this is the case, but is certainly possible.

Our satellite data is reasonably good, but is does have a few certain caveats to watch out for...
Quoting taco2me61:
Doing Good Atmo as long as they don't call me back in....
LOL How about you....

Taco :0)

I am pre-sore. Already hurting in my back, arms, shoulders, and fingers from 3 hours of machete work today...prolly will not want to move tomorrow.

After our freezes, though, now is a great time to clear out brush and reclaim a little of the yard from the forest...well, the undergrowth, anyway.

Call you back...to work? What do you do?
Ok so is that the real reason why the SST's are so different than 3 days ago????

It does make a big difference and explains alot... But I do see that it will not last that long and everything will be warming back up....

Taco:0)
Quoting taco2me61:
Ok so is that the real reason why the SST's are so different than 3 days ago????

It does make a big difference and explains alot... But I do see that it will not last that long and everything will be warming back up....

Taco:0)

Can't say. Is a possible reason. As StormW and Levi so eloquently pointed out, there simply doesn't seem to be a good atmo/ocean reason for it, so I am just discussing other possibilities.
Atmoaggie I work for Mobile Area Water Sewer System and it was my turn to be on call.... Working for the city has it's ups and downs but I have to take call every 4 weeks (the part I hate)..... It's ok at least I do have a Job where there are so many that don't, if you know what I mean....

Taco :0)
Quoting Skyepony:
Looks like the storm that was expected in Australia was worse than expected..10cm hail. Impressive flooding in the video.

BLOODIED festival-goers, spooked racehorses, smashed windows and torrential rain inside major buildings were some of the surreal scenes unfolding across Melbourne in one of the most intense storms in years.



It was raining heavily down seven floors through two skylights at Media House, home to The Sunday Age, while a similar water feature adorned the ABC headquarters in Southbank, where a reporter delivered a 7pm news broadcast inside, holding an umbrella.

Quoting taco2me61:
Atmoaggie I work for Mobile Area Water Sewer System and it was my turn to be on call.... Working for the city has it's ups and downs but I have to take call every 4 weeks (the part I hate)..... It's ok at least I do have a Job where there are so many that don't, if you know what I mean....

Taco :0)

May not be glamorous, but we collectively sure are glad when someone is around to fix a problem in that industry!
Quick, name the song:
"I've got wild, staring eyes"
Many South Australian farmers say they were disappointed with the 2009 grain harvest, despite achieving the second-largest yield on record.

A Department of Primary Industries and Resources South Australia (PIRSA) report says the 2009 season was 25 per cent higher than the 10-year average, with almost eight million tonnes of grain harvested.

But the report says despite nearly ideal conditions in September, the bumper crop was partly destroyed by a record heatwave and heavy rain in November.

It says poor grain prices this year are adding to the disappointment felt by many farmers.

PIRSA's report predicts the poor outlook for prices may lead to a reduction in the size of the crop sowed this season, with some farmers choosing wheat crops over barley, and a possible increase in the amount of lentils, chickpeas and canola sown.

The PIRSA report says the season in the upper south-east finished on a bad to worse note, with only a few positive stories in the region.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/03/05/2837519.htm
What todo when under flood condition and casual transport fails?






Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
What todo when under flood condition and casual transport fails?









"Cowboy Dundee" just doesn't have the same ring as "Crocodile Dundee" tho!
I would doubt that the cooling of the Caribbean and the Western Atlantic is caused by pixels captured by cold clouds. It's been unusually cold and clear the past few days. The cooling is actual cooling.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Quick, name the song:
"I've got wild, staring eyes"


Nobody Home - Pink Floyd

Quoting atmoaggie:

Alright, Gro...

Thinking further on that...the values didn't change *that* much...and there does seem to be a little smoothing in the SST anomaly plots. It is possible that an erroneously cold, cloud-contaminated pixel(s) got into the data.

There is no such thing as a perfect cloud mask algorithm. Aggressive ones remove a lot of valid data. The more amicable ones *do* allow a slightly cloud-contaminated (thereby erroneously cool) pixel in now and again. Not saying I can verify that this is the case, but is certainly possible.

Our satellite data is reasonably good, but is does have a few certain caveats to watch out for...


Thanks Atmo, sorry for the jabs, I just didn't want you to feel left out. I haven't been on in a while. I have been following the SST's the past few weeks and it did seem odd. Did you happen to catch that link I posted on the SST"s?
Quoting Birthmark:


Nobody Home - Pink Floyd


Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.
Quoting Grothar:


Thanks Atmo, sorry for the jabs, I just didn't want you to feel left out. I haven't been on in a while. I have been following the SST's the past few weeks and it did seem odd. Did you happen to catch that link I posted on the SST"s?

Hehe..no need to apologize, Gro, I did call you old codger, earlier.

Yes, I did look at the link...not sure what to think.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hehe..no need to apologize, Gro, I did call you old codger, earlier.

Yes, I did look at the link...not sure what to think.


Yes, saw that one! "OLD" Atmo. BTW can't find a current image of the S. Atlantic storm. Someone said it was getting more organized. Strange season.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.





Thriller became%u2014and currently remains%u2014the best-selling album of all time, with estimated sales between 65-110 million copies worldwide, and as the best-selling album in the United Stateshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ThrillerLink
Kenya flood: Eyewitness
I was sleeping when the flood came. It was 0630 and I was woken by an alarm call from my team members.


I saw immediately that our camp was completely surrounded by the flood water - the offices, the tents, the 4x4 vehicles. Everything was engulfed.

Tilas Lekongo (left) at Samburu national park, Kenya
Tilas Lekongo (left) at Samburu national park, Kenya
There was no escape route and the waters were rising fast. Everybody was trying to rescue themselves. I went into my hut and gathered my valuables - my camera and my phone - and then I ran for the nearest tree and climbed up.


It wasn't long before a log came sweeping towards me and knocked my tree down. I had to swim for the next tree and climb up again. But again - a log smashed into my tree and knocked me off.

I was scared. I have never seen a flood like this before.

I swam for one of the buildings. I made it and I clambered up on to the roof.

There were three of us up there - and we could hear the cries of others all around us. We had tourists staying from Germany, the US and Britain - they had all climbed trees.

It was about 10am that the waters came down and we were able to climb down from the roof. We had some injuries - some of the tourists were taken away by helicopter for medical attention. But there were no deaths - we were very lucky.

I went back into my hut and saw what was left of my bedroom. Oh my God! The whole place was a swimming pool.

I have never seen a flood like this.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/8552630.stm



Centers set up to help students overcome ‘flood phobia’
According to him, flood phobia was discovered in certain students when it was noticed that they had a marked fear of clouds and that they linked rain and clouds to floods and death.
http://www.saudigazette.com.sa/index.cfm?method=home.regcon&contentID=2010030765504
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, saw that one! "OLD" Atmo. BTW can't find a current image of the S. Atlantic storm. Someone said it was getting more organized. Strange season.

Big, hires image from the Brazilians here: http://pyata.cptec.inpe.br/repositorio1/goes12/goes12_web/ams_col_alta/2010/03/S11219894_2010030703 00.jpg

From their site at: http://satelite.cptec.inpe.br/home/
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ding ding ding ding!

From The Wall.

Hugely successful upon its release, The Wall was the best selling album of 1980 in the United States. It is one of the best-selling double albums of all time, and is in the top five best-selling albums of all time in the US.

This has been a good music lesson for not-so-young people brought you by my strong urge to fly.


I'm a bit of Floyd fanatic. :)
Quoting Birthmark:


I'm a bit of Floyd fanatic. :)

There's someone in my head, but it's not me.

My 80 yr old grandma and I will stay up playing cards, drinking vodka, and listening to Dark side...her fav.
There was an earthquake in northeastern China yesterday, magnitude 4.7 east of Beijing. Some slight potential for damage near the epicenter.

Wow the freak storms continue in australia.

Victoria warned to brace for more severe storms

Victoria has been warned to brace for more extreme weather after one of the most intense storms seen in years smashed into Melbourne yesterday.

SURREAL STORM: WILD WEATHER BRINGS CHAOS TO MELBOURNE

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a severe weather warning for the entire state, forecasting more heavy rain and thunderstorms this afternoon.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/victoria-warned-to-brace-for-more-severe-storms-20100307-pq0d.htm l

Where is Aussie now, like some firsthand report.
Quoting atmoaggie:

There's someone in my head, but it's not me.

My 80 yr old grandma and I will stay up playing cards, drinking vodka, and listening to Dark side...her fav.


I do like Floyd A Lot better Than Michael Jackson But he did sell the most
Now y'all got me listening to Dark Side.

On the weather front, it finally reached a decent temperature in the Western NC mountains. The snow hasn't completely melted, but I have hopes it'll be gone by tomorrow.


Some developments from global SSTs:

Two deep intrusions as cold as 11C are digging into the warm Kushiro Current east of Japan.

The sub-20C zone in the Humboldt is almost completely gone, although rebounded from yesterday, and the 21C and 22C lines are reaching in toward it.

Waters in the Aghulas Current as warm as 27C are clashing with cooler sub-polar water as cool as 12C, while the 13C and 22C lines are very close together.

South of South Korea, the 14C line collides with the 8C line near the coast.

The unusual flatness in the 20C line in the Atlantic is being disturbed.

Global SST anomalies. Notice the cold temperatures west of Florida colliding with the Loop Current, the warm anomaly emanating from the coast of Chile, and the warm intrusion in Pine Island Bay, the warm eddies in the Aghulas Current, the cold anomalies in the Baltic Sea, the warm anomalies near Tasmania, and the warm anomaly east and northeast of the Galapagos.

What is this blog, "Name that Tune"
Floyd with no Links:) Edit - oops!
just very quiet was busier back in late jan early feb
waitin on severe weather
Quoting Grothar:
What is this blog, "Name that Tune"


no "post a tune"
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just very quiet was busier back in late jan early feb


I am just jealous I don't know how to post YouTube links on here. I have tried about 10 times and failed each time. I got a few great ones I would like to post before we all get banned for off-topic subjects. It will be difficult for us to refrain from getting off topic once the season starts.
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?
Quoting Grothar:


I am just jealous I don't know how to post YouTube links on here. I have tried about 10 times and failed each time. I got a few great ones I would like to post before we all get banned for off-topic subjects. It will be difficult for us to refrain from getting off topic once the season starts.


Quoting Grothar:
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?


MOI??? C'est NON!!!
138 - Yep, they probably have a site that can name that tune, nah!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





KEEPER!!!! And I thought you were a gentleman. LOL
i just like a little AC/DC
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


MOI??? C'est NON!!!


Wi, se ou li ye!
Quoting Ossqss:
138 - Yep, they probably have a site that can name that tune, nah!


Wow, that is scary! I now have visions of sitting at my PC humming a tune and a voice will come on telling me what it is. Where did you ever find that??
Quoting Grothar:
By the way, anyone here old enough to remember that TV show "Name That Tune"?


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"
Quoting Grothar:


Wi, se ou li ye!

And I thought I could lie and you'd swear to it *sigh*

You know, I got absolutely no help on getting tunes for this year's hurricane names.

If we make it to "S," (Heaven forbid) there's a couple tunes for Sheri, Sherry, etc. if folks don't mind different spellings...

Maybe there's a Russian song for "Igor"?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i just like a little AC/DC


LoL L8R >>>>
Quoting PcolaDan:


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"


Arguably the cruelest show ever on TV. Those poor women. What they went through for a washing machine.
Quoting Grothar:


Wow, that is scary! I now have visions of sitting at my PC humming a tune and a voice will come on telling me what it is. Where did you ever find that??


Hey Grothar. I just checked it out and it wanted permission to access my mike (okay) and my camera(WHOOOAAAA Nelly). Backed up on that one.
i like this html thing finding lots making a list up to 14 so far
Quoting Grothar:


Arguably the cruelest show ever on TV. Those poor women. What they went through for a washing machine.


But it was a really good washing machine, right?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Or "Queen for a (the) Day"


Now that was just downright pitiful and weird. It was right up there with some of today's reality shows -- almost as awful as the "clean up your disgusting stinky home" one!

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

i just like a little AC/DC


Me, too, Keeper. I used to ask for it at the Dance Clubs in the late 80's just to crack people up... you know what, everybody loved it, too!

BTW, what in heck is going on in our personal blogs tonight? There's crazy whackos in there!
Quoting Birthmark:


But it was a really good washing machine, right?


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)
156. xcool
The snow has stopped falling but it is still quite nasty outside right now.

Current Conditions

Homer, Alaska (Airport)
Updated: 32 min 46 sec ago

17 °F
Blowing Snow
Windchill: -1 °F
Humidity: 71%
Dew Point: 9 °F
Wind: 25 mph from the WSW

Wind Gust: 33 mph
Pressure: 29.49 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Mostly Cloudy 3200 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 82 ft
Quoting PcolaDan:


Hey Grothar. I just checked it out and it wanted permission to access my mike (okay) and my camera(WHOOOAAAA Nelly). Backed up on that one.


It didn't call you Dave, did it? This world is getting to scary.
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)

OY VEY. (Be careful, Dan-the-Altar-Boy.)
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Now that was just downright pitiful and weird. It was right up there with some of today's reality shows -- almost as awful as the "clean up your disgusting stinky home" one!



Me, too, Keeper. I used to ask for it at the Dance Clubs in the late 80's just to crack people up... you know what, everybody loved it, too!

BTW, what in heck is going on in our personal blogs tonight? There's crazy whackos in there!
not really sure they will be empty space soon enough
Quoting Grothar:


Yeah, but they really put them through the wringer to get one. (Like that one, Awake?)


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.
Quoting xcool:


Hey xcool, Been a long time. Better sharpen you tools for this season. Looks like it could be an active one. We are going to depend on you for those graphics.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.


Where's that "SCREAM" emoticon?
Quoting Grothar:


It didn't call you Dave, did it? This world is getting to scary.


Well after reading about the school that snooped on kids with school computers, makes one wonder. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist either.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
not really sure they will be empty space soon enough

The sooner the better.
I noticed your new html effects!
Quoting PcolaDan:


Punny you mention that. :) My wife says she got her hair caught in one when she was little. Lucky it was hand crank.


Yeah, From what I heard people got a lot of things caught in them, especially the electric ones. Maybe that is where all those expressions come from.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


Where's that "SCREAM" emoticon?


There appears to be a stalker in a couple of blogs. One female has apparently removed all her blogs.



by the way, where's the chicken soup (yea, I got chutzpah) :)
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well after reading about the school that snooped on kids with school computers, makes one wonder. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist either.



I'm not either, but you should be careful about saying things like that on blogs. (You never know who could be watching us)
Ahh, there's The Scream, thanks, Dan.

Yes, she was a really lovely blogger, too. Some of us really miss her. I really don't know what happened.

Oh, sorry about the soup. The hubby made pork chops tonight (so not Kosher... but you know, the Irish).
170. xcool
hey .i'm ready now need hurry upppp







Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Ahh, there's The Scream, thanks, Dan.

Yes, she was a really lovely blogger, too. Some of us really miss her. I really don't know what happened.


Don't lose hope, Awake. In a few years she may come back as "Old Yeller". Come on, someone has to stop me. Even I am getting sick of them.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

The sooner the better.
I noticed your new html effects!
just foolin with them they can be annoying if used too much
Quoting Grothar:


I'm not either, but you should be careful about saying things like that on blogs. (You never know who could be watching us)


Quoting PcolaDan:




At least we see eye to eye on this one.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just foolin with them they can be annoying if used too much

I hope they annoyed the heck out of the troll(s).
I thought they were funny...(your html, not the trolls)!
you might have to use a couple on Grothar, maybe! :)

I think I'd better say good night!
We're supposed to have another nice day tomorrow ... that makes two...whoo hoo!
Quoting Grothar:


At least we see eye to eye on this one.


Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

I hope they annoyed the heck out of the troll(s).
I thought they were funny...(your html, not the trolls)!
you might have to use a couple on Grothar, maybe! :)

I think I'd better say good night!
We're supposed to have another nice day tomorrow ... that makes two...whoo hoo!


Say Goodnight, Gracie! It has been fun.
178. xcool
lmao
Quoting PcolaDan:




I have said it before and I will say it again; I just don't know how you post these so quickly, and so appropriately. That is the ugliest cat I have ever seen. You always give us a big laugh before beddy-bye. Hope I wasn't too punny tonight. It is just my language training. I always have to think of so many words and phrases at the same time that they just pour out of me. I shall try to reign them in a little.
Quoting xcool:
lmao


That kitty! Don't show that pic to your baby boy -- too scary for him!

OH

Good night, Gracie!
Quoting Grothar:


I have said it before and I will say it again; I just don't know how you post these so quickly, and so appropriately. That is the ugliest cat I have ever seen. You always give us a big laugh before beddy-bye. Hope I wasn't too punny tonight. It is just my language training. I always have to think of so many words and phrases at the same time that they just pour out of me. I shall try to reign them in a little.


Quick googler, and a little luck. And to your last sentence, Neigh. :)
182. xcool
lol yeah
from john seach:

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano

Eyjafjöll volcano is located in southern Iceland under Eyjafjallajökull icecap. The southern end of the volcano was once part of the Atlantic coastline. The sea level has retreated some 5 km, leaving behind sheer cliffs with and many waterfalls such as Skógafoss.

Eyjafjoll volcano contains a 2.5 km wide caldera.

Eyjafjöll has been much less active than neighboring volcanoes. Since 1600's there have only been two eruptions at Eyjafjoll, while nearby Katla had 20 eruptions.

2010 Earthquakes
An earthquake swarm began under Eyjafjoll volcano in January 2010. There was a 40 mm inflation of the volcano. At the beginning of March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were measured in a 24 hour period, with a maximum at magnitude 3.1.

Eyjafjöll Volcano Eruptions
1821-23, 1612
Quoting WaterWitch11:
from john seach:

Iceland

63.63 N, 19.62 W
summit elevation 1666 m
stratovolcano

Eyjafjöll volcano is located in southern Iceland under Eyjafjallajökull icecap. The southern end of the volcano was once part of the Atlantic coastline. The sea level has retreated some 5 km, leaving behind sheer cliffs with and many waterfalls such as Skógafoss.

Eyjafjoll volcano contains a 2.5 km wide caldera.

Eyjafjöll has been much less active than neighboring volcanoes. Since 1600's there have only been two eruptions at Eyjafjoll, while nearby Katla had 20 eruptions.

2010 Earthquakes
An earthquake swarm began under Eyjafjoll volcano in January 2010. There was a 40 mm inflation of the volcano. At the beginning of March 2010 over 3000 earthquakes were measured in a 24 hour period, with a maximum at magnitude 3.1.

Eyjafjöll Volcano Eruptions
1821-23, 1612


That's kind of scary, partially because: Typical eruption style - explosive.

It's only about 75 miles SE of Reykjavic.
Quoting PcolaDan:


That's kind of scary, partially because: Typical eruption style - explosive.

It's only about 75 miles SE of Reykjavic.


Iceland has always been called the Island of Fire and Ice. It is a common occurrence for sudden eruption to melt enormous amounts of ice and have floods. In 1963 off the coast an entire island formed in a month from an underground volcano called Surtsey. It was quite an event and followed by thousands of scientists. It is much to early to tell how eventful this could be. Be very interesting to watch. As many of you know I spent a great deal of time in Iceland. A fascinating place, especially if you like to drink, which I do not.
Hi Pcola,

the volcano that i have issues with is axial off the oregon coast. grant it i know there is a bunch to be concerned about but that one, i don't know. there was a ton of research being done on it in 2001 and then nothing.
Quoting Grothar:


Iceland has always been called the Island of Fire and Ice. It is a common occurrence for sudden eruption to melt enormous amounts of ice and have floods. In 1963 off the coast an entire island formed in a month from an underground volcano called Surtsey. It was quite an event and followed by thousands of scientists. It is much to early to tell how eventful this could be. Be very interesting to watch. As many of you know I spent a great deal of time in Iceland. A fascinating place, especially if you like to drink, which I do not.


I only spent a few days there. Fascinating is right. Did have me an Icelandic beer and some fish at a nice restaurant in Keflavik. The place is a living organism it seems. But that many earthquakes in such a short time... Could be normal for all I know though.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
Hi Pcola,

the volcano that i have issues with is axial off the oregon coast. grant it i know there is a bunch to be concerned about but that one, i don't know. there was a ton of research being done on it in 2001 and then nothing.


May have to look that up, but later I think. Think it's time to hit the hay for now though. Having to backspace and retype too many times. :) Night all.
Quoting PcolaDan:


I only spent a few days there. Fascinating is right. Did have me an Icelandic beer and some fish at a nice restaurant in Keflavik. The place is a living organism it seems. But that many earthquakes in such a short time... Could be normal for all I know though.


Actually, the only place I truly fear in the entire world is El Cumbre Vieja, on Las Palmas, Canary Islands. I will post a link on it. If it were to collapse it would make all other disaster pale in comparison. It is actually weather related, because of the amount of rainfall being absorbed. Here is one link for it. You must look at other to get the full story. Very frightening scenario, and quite real. This is the one we should be watching for.

http://www.newsmedianews.com/tsunami.php
Ok here is the real link.


Link
i heard of this:

Abstract. Geological evidence suggests that during a future
eruption, Cumbre Vieja Volcano on the Island of La Palma
may experience a catastrophic failure of its west flank, drop-
ping 150 to 500 km3 of rock into the sea. Using a geologically
reasonable estimate of landslide motion, we model tsunami
waves produced by such a collapse. Waves generated by the
run-out of a 500 km3 (150 km3) slide block at 100 m/s could
transit the entire Atlantic Basin and arrive on the coasts of the
Americas with 10-25 m (3-8 m) height.
Quoting Grothar:


Actually, the only place I truly fear in the entire world is El Cumbre Vieja, on Las Palmas, Canary Islands. I will post a link on it. If it were to collapse it would make all other disaster pale in comparison. It is actually weather related, because of the amount of rainfall being absorbed. Here is one link for it. You must look at other to get the full story. Very frightening scenario, and quite real. This is the one we should be watching for.

http://www.newsmedianews.com/tsunami.php

heard about this Miami would be sunk
When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?

6.3 2010/03/07 07:05:25 -16.108 -115.256 10.0 SOUTHERN EAST PACIFIC RISE
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
Quoting AussieStorm:
When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?

G'Day Mate, are you near Melbourne Aussie?
Yuk!!! with a sssshhhhiiivvverrrrr :)

Braden Oaks Area, Bradenton, Florida (PWS)

36.5 °F
Clear
Windchill: 36 °F
Humidity: 92%
Dew Point: 34 °F
Once-in-a-century storm hits Melbourne
“It was very dark and all of a sudden it was like a hurricane or a howling wind came through,” said Josh Bell, who was in the members' grandstand when the storm hit. “Marble-sized hail stones came down for about 10 minutes. The track was covered in hail. It was all white. It looked like it had snowed.”

Kevin Parkyn, an Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecaster, said that the storm brought hailstones 10cm in diameter — the size of lemons — in an event perhaps not seen since early last century.

“The weather system that brought the damage to Melbourne is known in meteorological terms as a supercell thunderstorm, an organised beast of a storm that once it gets going tends to last more than your average thunderstorm,” he said.

As the mop up from Saturday’s freak storm continued in the Victorian capital today, where the temperature was a mild 22C, locals were warned to brace themselves for more wild weather that was predicted to hit in the next 24 hours.

The weather bureau issued a severe thunderstorm warning and said that more wind gusts of up to 100km/hr were expected to lash the state.

Meanwhile in the northeastern state of Queensland, rural communities that were inundated by floodwaters last week were bracing for more floods as their rivers rose. Queensland declared a state of emergency and made emergency funds available for the communities.

The Balonne River in St. George was expected to peak over the weekend at 44ft (13.5m) — its highest level since records began in 1890 — as some locals stayed at a makeshift evacuation centre at the highest point in town.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/article7052888.ece
Quoting AussieStorm:
When did this become the volcano/doomsday blog, what happened to the weather blog?


We were waiting for you to come back on to give us a first hand on the bad weather your country has been having. Look at the times we posted those. We were all burned out at midnight. We wanted a light subject before we went to sleep and decided volcanoes and tsunamis would lull us to sleep. A little active down your way, eh?
Orlando, March 1992 NWS pictures -- That's hail, not snow !

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=record_hailstorms

Quoting Ossqss:
Orlando, March 1992 NWS pictures -- That's hail, not snow !

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=record_hailstorms



I remember that because at my house we had grape fruit size hail for 5 minutes and every house in my neighborhood had to get a new roof. I was in Lake Mary at the time. While 3 miles south of me the hail was 3 feet deep. I was 12 yr old at the time.
Mid to upper 80's could fuel another severe wx outbreak in C FL on Thursday. The high is forecast to be 84 or 85 with high humidity. It's been very quite in the severe wx dept. so far this year but that is about to change in a few days starting in East TX. on Wed.
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.
Quoting Ossqss:
Orlando, March 1992 NWS pictures -- That's hail, not snow !

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mlb/?n=record_hailstorms



By the way the storm top 75,000 feet when this occured.
hi jeff9641, been quite chilly over here in the mornings. last 3 days 27.1 28.2 27.1 again this morning.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.


After I posted that last night, I turned on the TV and saw it. Really scary coincidence. It just said Mega Disasters and sure enough that is what they showed. I am glad someone else saw it.
People in East TX and surounding states to the east need to get ready becuase Wed will be a very busy day. I expect numerous tornadoes some of which will f3 or greater.Then this threat will move into Georgia and Florida on Thursday.
Quoting severstorm:
hi jeff9641, been quite chilly over here in the mornings. last 3 days 27.1 28.2 27.1 again this morning.


Hi John, good news the cold is over now. 70 today and then climbing to the mid to upper 80's late next week. Spring is now here in Florida!!!
Grother, I,m sorry i got the name wrong. still to early in the morning. need another cup of java but yeah that was something. everything in fl would have a problem. I am at 85ft so may be ok but i think your down around ft meyers so keep eyes to the east.
Jeff, i love the cold but its time for some warmth. I am tired of scraping the windows at 5 am before i leave for work. Did get to 63.7 yesterday whoo hooo!!
Quoting severstorm:
Jeff, i love the cold but its time for some warmth. I am tired of scraping the windows at 5 am before i leave for work. Did get to 63.7 yesterday whoo hooo!!


My low was 40 this morning. Amazing to see how much cooler the rural areas can get. Also, I like our Storm chances on Thursday. We could really see some nasty wx thurs. afternoon.
Quoting severstorm:
Grother, I,m sorry i got the name wrong. still to early in the morning. need another cup of java but yeah that was something. everything in fl would have a problem. I am at 85ft so may be ok but i think your down around ft meyers so keep eyes to the east.


Don't worry about the name thing. I am the youngest of nine children. My mother would call me at least 8 other names before she slapped me. LOL But, We are in Ft. Lauderdale, on one of Islands on the Intracoastal Waterway. But don't worry about me, I am at least 12 feet above sea level. HA
Good (owww) Morn (owww)

(MY hands and fingers really are sore from brush clearing by machete)
ok so i cant get anything right today day, so what did the other kids do to you after your mom got done with you. did they slap as hard or harder lol 12 ft you better have a quick way out. I myself lived in hollywood fl for about 5 yrs. I was 1/2 miles from the beach. use to go to the beach to watch the thunderstorms roll in or out. what a site that was.
jeff I am hearing you and paying attention. thanks for the heads up.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Good (owww) Morn (owww)

(MY hands and fingers really are sore from brush clearing by machete)


What are you planning on chopping down today?
Quoting Grothar:


What are you planning on chopping down today?

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.
That clearing was a lot easier than it could have been, btw. About half of what I wanted to clear was killed by our freezes and was easy to clear out.
The azaleas (sp) are way behind schedule here in Pensacola. Normally they are blooming by now, this year they aare noteven close!
Quoting severstorm:
ok so i cant get anything right today day, so what did the other kids do to you after your mom got done with you. did they slap as hard or harder lol 12 ft you better have a quick way out. I myself lived in hollywood fl for about 5 yrs. I was 1/2 miles from the beach. use to go to the beach to watch the thunderstorms roll in or out. what a site that was.


Actually, there are 3 sisters and 1 brother whom I haven't spoken to in years. The others and I just pretend they don't exist. It is much more peaceful. Not nice people at all. By the way, my mother's family moved to Hollywood in 1924. My grandfather worked for the Young family. I lived there many years. It is still just a short distance from where I am now. Had nice beaches. They were there for the 1926 Hurricane, my Aunts and Uncles would often talk of it. They had just completed the Hollywood Hotel which was a magnificient building in its day. They told us that hardly a building was left standing in Miami.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......
Quoting Grothar:


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.
Quoting atmoaggie:

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.


She was on last night. I don't know what could have happened. We were all actually civil last night, if you can believe that.
Quoting Grothar:


Don't worry about the name thing. I am the youngest of nine children. My mother would call me at least 8 other names before she slapped me. LOL But, We are in Ft. Lauderdale, on one of Islands on the Intracoastal Waterway. But don't worry about me, I am at least 12 feet above sea level. HA

Cool. Grothar.. I live in Lauderdale...what a beautiful morning....
Quoting 954FtLCane:

Cool. Grothar.. I live in Lauderdale...what a beautiful morning....


We are lucky. It is a great day. People actually pay for this and we get it for free.
Quoting Grothar:


We are lucky. It is a great day. People actually pay for this and we get it for free.

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.
226. WAHA
Hey, grothar, the storm from yesterday strengthened, the one in the South Atlantic! Check it out!
227. WAHA
anyone needs me, I'll be in tropics talk for 2 hrs unless someone comes then it might be longer
Temperatures are warmer. Finally we got an average weekly temp of 50.4 which is rizing.


High: Low: Average:
Temperature: 69.9 %uFFFDF 31.8 %uFFFDF 50.4 %uFFFDF
Dew Point: 19.8 %uFFFDF -2.7 %uFFFDF 9.1 %uFFFDF
Humidity: 25.0% 14.0% 18.9%
Wind Speed: 11.0mph from the East - -0.2mph
Wind Gust: 15.4mph from the SSW - -
Wind: - - SE
Pressure: 30.09in 29.74in -
Precipitation: 0.66in



Come cheak out my blog and comment if you like.

Link


005

WTNT80 EGRR 070600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC
AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.03.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 22.0S 37.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.03.2010 22.0S 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 08.03.2010 23.8S 39.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.03.2010 26.5S 42.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.03.2010 28.6S 44.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2010 29.5S 45.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2010 29.4S 47.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.03.2010 30.6S 46.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.03.2010 31.0S 45.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2010 32.8S 43.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2010 35.1S 40.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.03.2010 37.7S 35.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.03.2010 39.9S 28.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070459


Quoting Grothar:


I swear Atmo, sometimes I believe that plants don't react, they think. Which leads into a weather related story about plants......


Wellll - you may want to reconsider that statement. There is evidence that plants communicate and react: Link

I'm not so sure about the thinking, though.
232. WAHA
I'm serious there is a storm in the south Atlantic!
Link
Quoting atmoaggie:

What happened to AIM's posts? Did I iggy her on accident or...

Nope, her blog has been banned by admin. Wunder what went down.


Quick flyby, out in the beautiful weather working in the yard. I suspect AIM may have gotten another ban (hopefully temp) because her blog may have seemed like a sales pitch for specific beauty products. IMO it was about beauty products in general, because it started in someone else's blog and she took it a little deeper. Of course I could be wrong about the whole thing. But I saw no other reason for a ban.

Back to the yard now.
Quoting GrtLksQuest:


Wellll - you may want to reconsider that statement. There is evidence that plants communicate and react: Link

I'm not so sure about the thinking, though.

Huh. I wonder what the plan is for woodpeckers...cacophony of (read really fast) rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap, rap here every now and then.
Quoting WAHA:
I'm serious there is a storm in the south Atlantic!
Link


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Mid to upper 80's could fuel another severe wx outbreak in C FL on Thursday. The high is forecast to be 84 or 85 with high humidity. It's been very quite in the severe wx dept. so far this year but that is about to change in a few days starting in East TX. on Wed.


Right now, I'm really not concerned for severe weather in Central and Southern Florida come the latter part of the upcoming week. Even though temps will be climbing into the middle 80s across Florida heading towards Thursday and Friday, the air mass in place will be relatively stable and not conducive to severe storms. In analyzing the latest GFS and ECMWF models, the forecast soundings show unimpressive CAPE and weak lift for Thursday and Friday despite increasing moisture from the south. At this time, all I'm anticipating is some scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms, which is rather typical for our transition into spring here in Florida.
Quoting Levi32:


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.

Haven't found much better than this site for looking at sat images of it: http://sos.cptec.inpe.br/sos/
(brush up on your Portuguese)
238. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


Aww man you really had me hoping there when I woke up lol.

Unfortunately it looks to me just like an extratropical low developing north of Uruguay with a sort of front starting to develop over and east of Brazil. Our little friend is getting entrained into this front as an open surface trough, and can't compete with the large circulation to its southwest. I'm afraid there's little chance now. The thing isn't fully extratropical yet but it soon will be. The whole system will be stuck in that area for the next 4 days but with cold air aloft and strong westerlies overhead, there's little chance for significant subtropical development. The models have it as shallow warm-core for the next couple days, but with an enlarging wind-field. That means it's well on its way to becoming non-tropical, so I doubt we'll get any recognition of the system by the NHC as being anything worthy of note.
Not that one! It's in the center of this circle.
Well the models just keep getting scarier and scarier with the 2nd punch of my blizzard week coming tonight and tomorrow. The difference between this storm and the last one is this one is deepening late, bombing out right as it nears my area, and it's going to stall just to my east and just sit there for 36 hours. It's also taking a track about 50 miles to the southeast of the 1st one. This track could end up meaning less precipitation than the first one due to down-sloping, but the winds are going to be far worse as the low bombs out just to the south. Hurricane-force gusts are likely both in front and behind the system. We shall see what happens. I am rooting (however you spell that) for my 60-inch snowstake to get buried with this one. It's currently covered up to 40 inches after packing down 3 inches since the last storm yesterday.

The animation I put together below shows the GFS surface forecast from 0-60 hours. Sorry that the legend isn't on there but the colors represent 925mb temperature, with the pink line and white color representing 0C.

12z GFS Surface Forecast 0-60hr:



GFS Cyclone-Phase Diagram and Track with SSTs:





Quoting atmoaggie:

Haven't found much better than this site for looking at sat images of it: http://sos.cptec.inpe.br/sos/
(brush up on your Portuguese)


You can also use Nexsat, but ya, theres not much coverage of the South Atlantic. Doesn't help GOES-10 was decommisioned before GOES-11 can move into its place.
Quoting WAHA:
Not that one! It's in the center of this circle.


Yeah I know that's what I was talking about. Big brother to the southwest is killing it.
North America 2m temperature last night, degrees Celsius (1 map)
Link
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I know that's what I was talking about. Big brother to the southwest is killing it.


And in fact now that I look at it more closely I don't think that band of clouds is a front. The comma-shape is probably just the upper low drawing in dry air off the continent with thunderstorms breaking out in the area of upper divergence over the water. At any rate it's pumping 20-30 knots of shear over our little "invest".
Quoting atmoaggie:

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.


If anyone could do it, you could. I'm not fluffing you either. I am going to send you a link you might find interesting though.
I mean there's a low look at it...

But as much as I wish there was a chance for it to develop tropically I just don't see one.

Notice on the WindSat image how the core of high winds is well-removed from the center. That's a strong sign that tropical processes aren't at work and the wind maximum is being created baroclinically.


246. WAHA
Quoting Levi32:


And in fact now that I look at it more closely I don't think that band of clouds is a front. The comma-shape is probably just the upper low drawing in dry air off the continent with thunderstorms breaking out in the area of upper divergence over the water. At any rate it's pumping 20-30 knots of shear over our little "invest".

And how do you know it won't form? We don't have accurate measurments and excel like in the North Atlantic. And also, if you flip an image of it upside down and put the screen infront of a mirror, it looks like Zeta before it formed.
Also, the Ascat swath is being blocked.
Quoting severstorm:
Morning all, Ossqss they had that topic on the discovery channel last night. Las Palmas Was quite interesting and amazing what can happin if that west side of that volcano sides into the ocean. 27.1 again here in w c fl this morning.



I hope your not refering to West Central Florida on that 27.1 lowest readings were around 37 deg, most locations went down to the upper 30s to low 40s
Quoting doabarrelroll:

heard about this Miami would be sunk


miami and the rest of the eastern seaboard

not a matter of if but when
Quoting WAHA:

And how do you know it won't form? We don't have accurate measurments and excel like in the North Atlantic. And also, if you flip an image of it upside down and put the screen infront of a mirror, it looks like Zeta before it formed.


Nobody "knows" what the weather will do lol. I'm just offering up my opinion. Anything can happen but I can pretty much guarantee that if it does develop it will be far from fully tropical, a hybrid system at best. And with 30+ knots of shear over it for the next 3 days I don't think we can get a convective core going. The shear is what has prevented it from developing over the last 4 days or it would have been a hurricane right now. It was on its way you didn't get to see it when I saw it several days ago with a well-defined tight closed circulation and spinning convection over the center. It would have developed but the shear was too much for it and the convection collapsed.

I will still hope but I gave up on it 2 days ago when I saw how this system deals with shear. Every tropical disturbance deals with it a different way and this one hasn't been able to handle it so far.
231- this is a little bit newer and not $31. I have read some time ago of cascade reactions. Mostly chemical in nature. :)

Plants Can Recognize, Communicate With Relatives, Studies Find


Plants Communicate to Warn Against Danger

Then of course plants have twitter now - LoL

Quoting atmoaggie:

Grothar, btw, I did build a script to poll this site: ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/ss/ and process all of the ssvx files. Decodes through the dbdrcu AWIPS decoder. (Yes, is WMO FM-18 format).

Ended up with 20,000 buoy records from the drifters and TAO and PIRATA arrays in 24 hours. Data from 2000 platforms.

Will eventually have an operational product.


You can download the software.

Link
is AwakeInMaryland = AWeatherLover?
Quoting Ossqss:
231- this is a little bit newer and not $31. I have read some time ago of cascade reactions. Mostly chemical in nature. :)

Plants Can Recognize, Communicate With Relatives, Studies Find


Plants Communicate to Warn Against Danger

Then of course plants have twitter now - LoL



That would explain the strange message I received, "Cut off one more of my leaves and we are done" signed your friend Arica Palm.

Good image. That really is funny.
I actually take back what I said about W-C-FL temp Mins last night. Although brooksville reporting station is not a offical site and has erorrs to it. Alot of locations went under guidance by 3-5 deg and down into the lower 30s and a couple had 29. Anyways my bad!
Quoting scottsvb:
I actually take back what I said about W-C-FL temp Mins last night. Although brooksville reporting station is not a offical site and has erorrs to it. Alot of locations went under guidance by 3-5 deg and down into the lower 30s and a couple had 29. Anyways my bad!


We had frost on the roofs here in East Bradenton this morning. Brrrrr, even the dog didn't want to go out :) L8R all out (☼¿☼)
Quoting Grothar:


You can download the software.

Link

LOL! That's what I meant. DCDRBU...uses the NAWIPS Library.
Using it! Thanks anyway.

Will need to translate the interface output to a useful format for further use, but all over the decoder, ATM.

Anyone know of a Linux-compatible program that will automatically poll a site and recognize that a couple of files have changed and them download only the new ones?

Currently invoking wget every 5 minutes in a looped script.
Impressive storm in the mediterranean sea.


Quoting atmoaggie:

I plan on suffering through lifting a coffee cup, so far, nothingmore.

I was chopping and pulling vines and underbrush out of a mixed growth wooded area next door. It would be nice if the oaks and magnolias could actually grow. Of course, they are towered over by pines. Had to be a little careful with the vines. Two went all the way up to the crown of oak trees that have bird nests in them. Just cut those as high as I could rather than pull them out, lest I pull some cardinal eggs or chicks out...

Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring and went ahead with it's business. Thus far, all of the maples are still pretty sure it is still winter. How they know is beyond me.


Yes, the same thing here in the DFW, TX area. By now, at least half of the trees have started to bloom...Well, this year maybe 10% of the trees are showing their new buds for spring.

Finally, here in N TX, we have had a few days above normal, with high temps averaging right around 70F. It is raining today, and will do so tomorrow, so high temps will run for 60F.

Come on Tu/We. We are expecting highs both days between 70-75F, before a cool down back to the low 60's for the Th-Sa period.
Quoting CycloneUK:
Impressive storm in the mediterranean sea.




All I gotta say is hot damn. Definitely not a good day for a Mediterranean cruise. lol
Quoting cchsweatherman:


All I gotta say is hot damn. Definitely not a good day for a Mediterranean cruise. lol



VALID 081200Z - 091200Z



...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...



...SYNOPSIS...



AN ALREADY POWERFUL MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER

THE SRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY FURTHER WHILE TRANSLATING NEWD INTO

THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE

ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND A CORRIDOR OF

12-HR HEIGHT FALLS OF 100-150 M WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE SRN PLAINS

THROUGH THE PERIOD.



AT THE SURFACE...AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE AREA INITIALLY OVER THE

CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A DEEPENING CYCLONE

OVER THE TX/OK PNHDLS MONDAY PRIOR TO OCCLUDING AND SLOWLY FILLING

OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST

PERIOD. PACIFIC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH

EWD/NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO CNTRL PARTS OF OK AND TX...WHILE A WARM

FRONT LIFTS MORE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN PARTS OF TX.



LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO A COUPLE OF AREAS: ONE NEAR THE

OCCLUDING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND THE OTHER

NEARER TO THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX.



...OK/TX PNHDLS...SWRN KS...WRN OK...



CLUSTERS OF MAINLY ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD

THROUGH REGION EARLY IN THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LEADING EDGE

OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO UPPER SYSTEM. FORECAST

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN

MARGINAL WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE

HAIL THREAT.



BY AFTERNOON...A SERIES OF LOW-TOPPED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP

FROM VICINITY OF OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW SEWD ALONG PACIFIC/OCCLUDED

FRONT WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S/ BUT STEEP

LAPSE RATES. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME

OWING TO APPROACH OF MIDLEVEL LOW...BUT LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILE WILL

EXHIBIT MODEST VEERING E OF SURFACE FRONT. THE PRIMARY HAZARD

ASSOCIATED WITH THESE DIURNAL STORMS WILL BE HAIL /SOME THAT MAY

APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA/...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE

NEAR SURFACE LOW WHERE AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED.



...CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/SRN TX...



HERE TOO...CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE

DAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRENGTHENING WAA ALONG 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS.

THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED TO THE N OF

SURFACE WARM FRONT WITHIN A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. WITH

TIME...REGENERATIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD

PROGRESSIVELY SWD/SWWD...EVENTUALLY BECOMING ROOTED IN

MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN TX.

FARTHER N ALONG PACIFIC/OCCLUDED FRONT... ISOLATED...SURFACE-BASED

STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CNTRL OK INTO N-CNTRL TX MONDAY

AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.



THE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE

60S/ WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT OVER

CNTRL/SRN TX. HOWEVER...LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAKER THAN LOCATIONS

TO THE N/NW...LIMITING MLCAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG.

MIDLEVEL WIND FIELD WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY TO THE S/SE OF

PARENT CIRCULATION /I.E. GENERALLY S OF THE RED RIVER/...RESULTING

IN INCREASINGLY LONG HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR

ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ AXIS WILL REMAIN LARGELY DISPLACED TO THE NE/E

OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NET

RESULT IS RATHER LONG...STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS...SUPPORTIVE OF

ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY HAIL AND DAMAGING

WINDS.



THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A MORE

ROBUST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THEREFORE...LOW SEVERE WEATHER

PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THIS FORECAST. AN UPGRADE TO

SLIGHT RISK MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUBSEQUENT DAY ONE OUTLOOKS ONCE

FINER-SCALE DETAILS IN THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY FIELD BECOME MORE

CLEAR.



..MEAD.. 03/07/2010
UKMET office still forecasting development in the South Atlantic:




015

WTNT80 EGRR 071800


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.03.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 24.2S 39.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.03.2010 24.2S 39.7W WEAK
12UTC 08.03.2010 27.3S 42.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.03.2010 29.4S 45.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.03.2010 30.1S 47.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.03.2010 30.1S 47.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.03.2010 30.6S 47.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.03.2010 31.4S 47.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.03.2010 32.1S 45.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.03.2010 33.5S 42.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.03.2010 35.4S 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.03.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071704


Quoting CycloneUK:




Wow, looks like that ship was left "high and dry"! Do you know where that picture was taken?
Quoting Ossqss:
231- this is a little bit newer and not $31. I have read some time ago of cascade reactions. Mostly chemical in nature. :)

Plants Can Recognize, Communicate With Relatives, Studies Find


Plants Communicate to Warn Against Danger

Then of course plants have twitter now - LoL


Hmmm, next thing, of course, is that a pet bird can send a tweet that it needs food, water, or a fresh layer of newsprint...
(Doh! Is that a bad techno-pun?)
265. WAHA
I am on tropics talk, I came in and everybody's gone
btw what about south atlantic storm?
Deary me this med storm is big.
Look at the top

Quoting scottsvb:



I hope your not refering to West Central Florida on that 27.1 lowest readings were around 37 deg, most locations went down to the upper 30s to low
40s


scottsvb,I was saying it got that cold heres another site 5 miles from me.check out Dade City just as cold.
269. xcool
poor IE6






Quoting CycloneUK:
Deary me this med storm is big.
Look at the top



HERE IS SOME REAL TIME IMAGES OF SYSTEM



267. WAHA 8:52 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
South atlantic storm strengthening
Action: Quote | Ignore User


273. WAHA
South atlantic tropical cyclone? Every time this happens there's no posts for a while then someone goes offtopic from what i'm saying. besides this is the comments section, not a chat section. The topic was on South atlantic tropical cyclones.
274. WAHA
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
267. WAHA 8:52 PM GMT on March 07, 2010
South atlantic storm strengthening
Action: Quote | Ignore User



THANK you.
The last 3 hours have started to look a lot better on the IR, and have revealed where the low's center is. It seems to have found a pocket of 10-knot shear, but strong westerlies are just to the south. We know for nearly a fact that a subtropical low is going to develop, but it's a question of what the structure will be, and exactly how warm-core the system is. This isn't a fully-tropical system and I doubt we'll get the NHC to pay attention to this, but I still find it interesting. I dismissed the possibility of a true tropical storm or hurricane 2 days ago though because this low missed that opportunity and is now too far south interacting with the upper low.

It's fantastic here in Ohio! It is sunny and warm for a change and it looks like it is going to stay that way for a while (except for the days that it's going to be rainy!)
The med storm really bombed out over warm waters

Both systems
keeper where do you get those sat. images you are showing.
so guys what up with S ATL Invest 80SL
Quoting MississippiBoy:
keeper where do you get those sat. images you are showing.

If you go here, you'll find most any sat image you want for the eastern hemisphere: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/BW/EUROPE/index.htm
And this gives a little more southern coverage and for the South Atlantic: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR039/BW/index.htm

Such as:
Water vapor is a better one to see the flow:

Quoting atmoaggie:

If you go here, you'll find most any sat image you want for the eastern hemisphere: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MTP/IMAGERY/IR115/BW/EUROPE/index.htm
thanks atmo just came back
S Atlantic cyclone is looking good
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
thanks atmo just came back

I am going to have to remember these for when we have systems approaching the lessers...that don't have a floater on yet, anyway.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I am going to have to remember these for when we have systems approaching the lessers...that don't have a floater on yet, anyway.
i will have an array of these images up on my tropical blog as season approaches as a matter of fact already starting to write a code for the blog page hang on i will post a brief sample image
289: Well, no surprises cropping up there! Well monitored, that is.
;-)
Quoting StormW:
Evening all!

Just got kicking some numbers around...and going just by some years that transitioned from El Nino to Neutral, no other factors...I picked 6 years. I threw in 1992 for kind of an offset, but wnet with years since we picked up in activity since 1995. I tried to come as close to what we might expect as departure temps from El Nino (with only spending a short time on them), and I came up with 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2007, and the off one, 1992. These 6 averaged out to 14.3 total named systems. If you take out 1992, the average comes up to 15.8

Cold and Warm Episodes by Season


Evening Storm!

Those are good picks. I don't have 2003 or 2004 in my package due to upswinging in the ONI during those hurricane seasons.

One question though...if you're gonna put 2003 and 2004 in there why not 2005 as well? 2005 was more similar with the ONI than either of those years.
Quoting StormW:
Evening all!

I came up with 1995, 1998, 2003, 2004, 2007, and the off one, 1992. These 6 averaged out to 14.3 total named systems. If you take out 1992, the average comes up to 15.8


Interesting that all of those years except 1995 (which had 3 Category 4's) had Category 5 hurricanes. 2007 even had two.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Interesting that all of those years except 1995 (which had 3 Category 4's) had Category 5 hurricanes. 2007 even had two.


Both of those two Category 5's in 2007 made landfall at that intensity.
297. WAHA
Storm, do you see a possible tropical cyclone?
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Both of those two Category 5's in 2007 made landfall at that intensity.


Yep

Can never forget Felix and Dean
atmo: "Noticed my weeping willow thinks it is spring"

They always come out earlier than other trees. Check out the willows along rivers.

Quoting atmoaggie:
Water vapor is a better one to see the flow:



Has really increased in organization lately. If this forms I will be really impressed.
Quoting StormW:


2005 was considered an anomaly, and I was trying to go with years that had a moderate to strong El Nino. 2005 ONI didn't modify that much. Actually, Don't know why I picked 2004. Even throwing out 2004, it averages to 16...if you include 1992...14. Comes within the range I have in mind right now, until we get to May, and I see what else is happening.


Ok I see. Sounds good. 1998 is also a possibility if you don't consider that an anomaly as well lol. That year did slip into a considerable La Nina quite fast but the NAO was analogous to this year. 1998 also has the most similar winter SST profile to this year. I can't find a more perfect analog in that regard, at least since satellite SST-measuring began. The only big difference is the shear strength of the 1998 El Nino, which is obviously unsurpassed by any other year.

March 1998:



March 2010:





I'm out for now later all.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Yep

Can never forget Felix and Dean


If post 2005 terror had a name it would be them. I remember just looking at the radars of Dean as it ramped up coming into the Yucatan.. I must have sent out at least a dozen prayers, and Felix on the other hand was just as terrifying and was only within a few weeks of each other.
306. WAHA
Quoting StormW:


When?

Today, and possibly in the future. Where I found it
Quoting CybrTeddy:


If post 2005 terror had a name it would be them. I remember just looking at the radars of Dean as it ramped up coming into the Yucatan.. I must have sent out at least a dozen prayers, and Felix on the other hand was just as terrifying and was only within a few weeks of each other.


Cant forget Felix's little RI episode

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
HAS INTENSIFIED AND IS NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE AIRCRAFT
REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 152 KT...WITH PEAK SFMR WINDS
OF 142 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. HIGHER SFMR WINDS WERE FOUND
IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...UP TO 163 KT
...BUT THESE MAY HAVE BEEN
CONTAMINATED BY GROUPEL. A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT
...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.

309. WAHA
Quoting StormW:


Are you speaking of the South Atlantic feature?
Yes. The center of circulation is exposed but there might be another center of circulation, but I don't have enough imagery to go that much into detail of if there is. I figured since you're a proffesional, you might.
304: Maybe it is the result of a penchant for data analysis. A certain aptitude, maybe.

But, I, personally, never come in here bashing the NHC.

You, apparently have been having a series of bad days. Maybe you should chew out your refrigerator, or something, instead of bringing it in here. Though, relatively benign, post flagged for lack of civility. Rule of the Road, numero uno.
Quoting atmoaggie:
304: Maybe it is the result of a penchant for data analysis. A certain aptitude, maybe.

But, I, personally, never come in here bashing the NHC.

You, apparently have been having a series of bad days. Maybe you should chew out your refrigerator, or something, instead of bringing it in here. Though, relatively benign, post flagged for lack of civility. Rule of the Road, numero uno.
Typical of your post.
I just helped my young one finish up a project on the GRS. Talk about bad weather... That's one big spinner...and kinda weather related...and slow, so I thought it OK to share.. LoL



Perspective of size :)



I'll leave Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (or was it Levi) on the shelf (ª¿ª)
Quoting Ossqss:
I just helped my young one finish up a project on the GRS. Talk about bad weather... That's one big spinner...and kinda weather related...and slow, so I thought it OK to share.. LoL



Perspective of size :)



I'll leave Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (or was it Levi) on the shelf (ª¿ª)
A hurricane the size of Earth. Wow.
Storm damage likely to be in the millions

The RACV is predicting the weekend's storms will result in the most claims ever made from one event in Victoria.

The company has put on extra staff and is asking people to be patient while it processes customer claims.

One customer waited until 4:00am to get through on the congested phone lines which are operating around the clock.

RACV claims manager John Simpson says he is expecting thousands of claims to be lodged.

"If you put that into context, the biggest ones in the past have had in excess of 10,000 claims. We think we'll exceed that," he said.

The massive clean-up is in full swing.

The wild weather damaged buildings and cars and flooded streets in Melbourne on Saturday.

There is roof damage at Southern Cross station and Docklands stadium, and flooding closing the National Gallery of Victoria at the height of Melbourne's violent storm on Saturday.

Yesterday, Shepparton and Numurkah in the state's north-east were the hardest hit, with one school badly damaged and trees uprooted.

The Melbourne to Sydney rail line has been closed because of flood damage at Mangalore.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has received more than 5,600 calls for help and says it may take another few days to respond to everyone.

SES spokesman Danny May says they are expecting more calls this afternoon as people return home from the long weekend.

He says more than 1,000 volunteers are working in the field, including some from interstate.

"I expect our crews to be working for the next two to three days," he said.

"We'll have a better understanding later today, with the extra crews in the field, just how many calls for assistance can be completed."

Weather bureau senior forecaster Scott Williams says there is a possibility of some thunderstorms this afternoon.

"We will get showery weather and cool weather in the wake of the low going southwards tomorrow and quite blustery southerly winds," he said.

"Then the large high will slowly move in and fine conditions up later in the week."

- ABC


______________________________________________________________________________________________
Remember the very large LPA(Low Pressure Area) image i posted a week back, That LPA and a new one joined up to become a super LPA which brought warm tropical air and cold antarctic air together which then produced the very dangerous and damaging severe thunderstorm that hit most parts of Melbourne on Saturday.
Sorry This was an old post my Bad....

:0)

Taco :0)
Quoting cg2916:
A hurricane the size of Earth. Wow.

Not really a hurricane or even a low pressure center it's a high that formed between opposing jet streams, still counts as weather though, and it is very interesting to watch
Not quite slight risk tomorrow for the southern plains. A lack of instability (read: CAPE) holding it back. Watch for daytime heating-driven possibilities, though.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Storm damage likely to be in the millions

The RACV is predicting the weekend's storms will result in the most claims ever made from one event in Victoria.

The company has put on extra staff and is asking people to be patient while it processes customer claims.

One customer waited until 4:00am to get through on the congested phone lines which are operating around the clock.

RACV claims manager John Simpson says he is expecting thousands of claims to be lodged.

"If you put that into context, the biggest ones in the past have had in excess of 10,000 claims. We think we'll exceed that," he said.

The massive clean-up is in full swing.

The wild weather damaged buildings and cars and flooded streets in Melbourne on Saturday.

There is roof damage at Southern Cross station and Docklands stadium, and flooding closing the National Gallery of Victoria at the height of Melbourne's violent storm on Saturday.

Yesterday, Shepparton and Numurkah in the state's north-east were the hardest hit, with one school badly damaged and trees uprooted.

The Melbourne to Sydney rail line has been closed because of flood damage at Mangalore.

The State Emergency Service (SES) has received more than 5,600 calls for help and says it may take another few days to respond to everyone.

SES spokesman Danny May says they are expecting more calls this afternoon as people return home from the long weekend.

He says more than 1,000 volunteers are working in the field, including some from interstate.

"I expect our crews to be working for the next two to three days," he said.

"We'll have a better understanding later today, with the extra crews in the field, just how many calls for assistance can be completed."

Weather bureau senior forecaster Scott Williams says there is a possibility of some thunderstorms this afternoon.

"We will get showery weather and cool weather in the wake of the low going southwards tomorrow and quite blustery southerly winds," he said.

"Then the large high will slowly move in and fine conditions up later in the week."

- ABC


______________________________________________________________________________________________
Remember the very large LPA(Low Pressure Area) image i posted a week back, That LPA and a new one joined up to become a super LPA which brought warm tropical air and cold antarctic air together which then produced the very dangerous and damaging severe thunderstorm that hit most parts of Melbourne on Saturday.
welcome to fall with winter on the way
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Anybody know what's stretching the blog?

Anyway, it was a few degrees warmer here in ECFla today. Off to read for a bit.
Have a good evening!LoopEATL
Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Anybody know what's stretching the blog?

Had no idea it was. Using an older version of internet explorer?
6 or greater mid eastern region up dated to a 5.9


different angle
Magnitude 5.9 - EASTERN TURKEY
2010 March 08 02:32:42 UTC

Magnitude 5.9 - EASTERN TURKEY
2010 March 08 02:32:35 UTC
DetailsMapsEarthquake Details
Magnitude 5.9
Date-Time Monday, March 08, 2010 at 02:32:35 UTC
Monday, March 08, 2010 at 04:32:35 AM at epicenter

Location 38.886N, 39.974E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN TURKEY
Distances 44 km (27 miles) W (271) from Bingol, Turkey
68 km (42 miles) ENE (70) from Elazig, Turkey
103 km (64 miles) SSE (156) from Erzincan, Turkey
414 km (257 miles) WSW (251) from YEREVAN, Armenia

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 6.3 km (3.9 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=187, Nph=187, Dmin=433.8 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 40,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID us2010tpac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Magnitude 5.9 - EASTERN TURKEY
2010 March 08 02:32:35 UTC
DetailsMapsEarthquake Details
Magnitude 5.9
Date-Time Monday, March 08, 2010 at 02:32:35 UTC
Monday, March 08, 2010 at 04:32:35 AM at epicenter

Location 38.886�N, 39.974�E
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region EASTERN TURKEY
Distances 44 km (27 miles) W (271�) from Bingol, Turkey
68 km (42 miles) ENE (70�) from Elazig, Turkey
103 km (64 miles) SSE (156�) from Erzincan, Turkey
414 km (257 miles) WSW (251�) from YEREVAN, Armenia

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 6.3 km (3.9 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=187, Nph=187, Dmin=433.8 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 40�,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=7
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID us2010tpac

328. JRRP
Well 2010 keeps going from one side to the other... Had been talking about how we kept breaking high temp records and how crazy dry it has been in PR. Today it is the opposite, second coldest high temp (74, it's cold for us) and rainiest beginning March so far.
Go figure, no?
It really has been cold here for us today, by our standards. At 5pm at my home it was 68, usually it is about 82... Now it's about 64 which for the coast is very damn cold.
Quoting StormW:


I haven't really been following it...I'll see what I can find tomorrow. I'm gettin' ready to sign off...still battling this sinus infection.


Seems to be a flu going around here too.

Quoting Chicklit:
Evening, Wunderfolk.
Anybody know what's stretching the blog?

Anyway, it was a few degrees warmer here in ECFla today. Off to read for a bit.
Have a good evening!LoopEATL


So, we've got a massive bout of moisture in the Central Atlantic, headed for Western Europe and the Mediterranean region. Has me thinking what the tracks for the hurricane season will be like. At my location in S. Ontario, it was our first day above 10C (50F) although there's still about 20 cm of snow in the higher spots.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
6 or greater mid eastern region up dated to a 5.9


That quake is located on the eastern part of the massive Mediterranean storm that stretches from Tunisia to Romania to Iraq. Probably a coincidence, but recently there seem to possibly be more connections between earthquakes and weather.
332. JLPR
Quoting benirica:
Well 2010 keeps going from one side to the other... Had been talking about how we kept breaking high temp records and how crazy dry it has been in PR. Today it is the opposite, second coldest high temp (74, it's cold for us) and rainiest beginning March so far.
Go figure, no?
It really has been cold here for us today, by our standards. At 5pm at my home it was 68, usually it is about 82... Now it's about 64 which for the coast is very damn cold.


yep we are in the same boat XD
a little crappy thermometer my dad has read 68 at 3-4pm here in Carolina and I was like seriously? O_o 68? at 3pm? XD thats crazy here
Well but thats just the cold front, once it passes we will probably warm up quickly :D
Lucky escape as tree crushes car in inner-city




A 15M TREE collapsed on five cars in inner-Sydney this morning with locals saying it is ''extraordinary'' no one was killed or injured.

The tree fell near the corner of Crown and Cathedral streets in Darlinghurst about 11.20am, with the bulk of its thick branch landing on a silver Holden Barina.

The owner hasn't returned to their car yet.

Behind it was another small white car that has sustained minor damage, while three other cars parked across the street appear to have no structural damage.

The owners of the East Sydney Hotel say they have been contacting the City of Sydney Council for weeks to complain about a leak.

"Our cellar was flooded two weeks ago and since then there has been some leaking,'' hotelier Harald Muller said.

"When I saw this morning how raised the asphalt was, I thought something like this could happen.
"It is just extraordinary that no one was killed.

"(Wife) Trish and I have been worried about the tree for some time, given how top-heavy it is."

Andrew McCarroll returned to his 4WD after having coffee with his brother - only to find his car "hidden" under the tree's branches and leaves.

"It was definitely a shock to come down the street and see that,'' he said.

"From what I can see my car has no structural damage, just a lot of scratches."
I wish I could keep up with all you 'youngsters' but I'm going to call it a night.

As I've mentioned before, I really enjoy winter and hope for snow and ice to remain at least through March. Even though we have had high temps in the mid 30's to low 40's for the last few days, we still have more than 1/2 foot of snow and our lake is still frozen over. The predicted rain is passing to our south but we are supposed to have more rain next week. I guess I'll just have to follow the Iditarod race and enjoy winter vicariously.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0158
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CST SUN MAR 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL/SE NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 080306Z - 080430Z

SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY 850 MB JET /UP
TO 30 KT/...BENEATH 30-50 KT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW...
APPEARED TO HAVE INVIGORATED STORM DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY HAVE BEEN AIDED BY MID-LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD TOP RADIATIONAL COOLING.
HOWEVER...LOWER LEVELS ARE NOW BEGINNING TO STABILIZE WITH CONTINUED
SURFACE COOLING...AND STORMS PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WITHIN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA SUGGEST THAT
THIS COULD ALREADY BE UNDERWAY...BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE COLD POOL SOUTHWEST OF CLOVIS MAY NOT YET
BE COMPLETELY NEGLIGIBLE.

..KERR.. 03/08/2010
2007 isn't a great analog year because the High was too strong that year. Dry air, dust and trade winds were king of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, though we did see a couple exceptions (namely, Dean and Felix).

1998 wasn't a great analog year because shear was prevalent most of the hurricane season, as aforementioned. Though, the SST's were close to being as warm as this year's and we were coming out of the infamous 1997 El Nino.

1995 is a good analog year, the High wasn't too strong and the shear wasn't very strong at all, though it was a weak to moderate La Nina year.

2003 is a mediocre analog year because although we did see some impressive storms, and the dry air/dust wasn't bad in 2003, I just didn't see a lot of things forming that could have that year. Isabel made it all the way across the Atlantic when she should have definately been a fish storm, indicating that the high was strong that year and the trade winds were above average.

2004 isn't a good analog year because the SST's in the South and Central Atlantic were below average and it was indeed a weak El Nino hurricane season, whereas this year it's expected to be dead neutral or the slightest La Nina. The entire fun part of 2004 was crammed into a span of about 6 weeks (Alex through Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne, finishing with Karl and Lisa and after that pretty much nothing).
338. JRRP
Quoting altesticstorm10:
1998 wasn't a great analog year because shear was prevalent most of the hurricane season, as aforementioned. Though, the SST's were close to being as warm as this year's and we were coming out of the infamous 1997 El Nino.


how do you know??????
post 302 said so.
340. JRRP
ook
ya
did you guys here that Internet Explorer 6 has pass a way


Quoting altesticstorm10:
post 302 said so.


Actually no I must have misspelled "sheer".

"The only big difference is the shear strength of the 1998 El Nino, which is obviously unsurpassed by any other year."

Altestic, you are bringing up things that haven't even happened yet this year, so you can't demote those years as analogs if you don't even know what this summer's conditions will be like yet. The analogs are based on current conditions, such as this winter so far and the state of the ENSO.

2003 and 2004 as I mentioned earlier are not in my analog package for good reason, but 1998 is a great analog. Saying it isn't would be being too picky. Again you can't base an analog off of what hasn't happened yet. We don't know how wind shear will turn out this year.
Sick has made me scarce as well..

AS far as analog years, any year in FL coming out of strong El Niño seems a little concerning about fire season.. Ya'll remember 1998 when Volusia county was evacuated? Tourists sent home, central FL was burning down.. It happened back in 1983 after El Nino too. Lots of rain & growth, freezes in the winter, extra fuel then the rains would stop. So far we have by in large missed our El Nino Feb & Mar extreme tornado weather here in ECFL, maybe we can get so lucky with the up coming fire season. ONI didn't quite make it to 2, hard to say.

As for the next big system I think we may see more severe weather mid country than in FL. My late week trough outlook for Central & SFL lies between Jeff9641 & probably closer to cchs with an outside chance of thunderstorms, damaging winds & small hail, not expecting numerous severe events..
When you get to this time of year and week forecast is warm you plant tomato’s . The season is short because of the summer heat. I got mine in last week and not worried about freeze at this point.
331. AstroHurricane001

That quake is located on the eastern part of the massive Mediterranean storm that stretches from Tunisia to Romania to Iraq. Probably a coincidence, but recently there seem to possibly be more connections between earthquakes and weather.


Or it may not have been a coincidence. This is from the Lake Charles Rita log as she was making her approach... Link

8:35 PM - The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting an earthquake, magnitude 5.0, in the Gulf of Mexico, 530 miles south of Brownsville.
Is there even a fault line in that area?

I just thought the whole log was pretty cool. A play by play of a land-falling major hurricane. Especially one coming in at night where there is little visual evidence to pour over. But of course the equipment failed before she made landfall. Sigh. So she's still holding on to her secrets.
Special on tornadoes and Hesston tornadoe.


1990 tornadoes increased awareness of dangers
http://www.kansas.com/2010/03/07/1213543/1990-tornadoes-increased-awareness.html

347. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


We will have severe wx Thursday and Friday. So get ready because your forecast will fail again.






DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0351 AM CST MON MAR 08 2010

VALID 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
WITH THE BROAD/CLOSED UPPER TROUGH LIKELY TO INITIALLY REMAIN
CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST...SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO
DAY 4/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES/FL VICINITY.
HOWEVER...A WIDESPREAD/APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED AS PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVECTION AND/OR MARGINALLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR BECOMES INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/FLOW ALOFT.
AS THE MS VALLEY CENTERED UPPER
TROUGH BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MID/UPPER FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION/SOUTHEAST STATES ON DAY 5/FRIDAY...A SEVERE
THREAT MAY EXIST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...LIMITED
PREDICTABILITY AT THIS JUNCTURE PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF 30% DAY-1
EQUIVALENT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. THEREAFTER...A POTENTIALLY DEEP
FRONTAL PENETRATION ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IMPLIES LIMITED
PROSPECTS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
CONUS.

..GUYER.. 03/08/2010
good morning everyone a nice one ahead. the crowd is here nascar and bike wk were boys town. what about the micro chips in the new garbage cans? "pay as you go" if you dont like your neighbors just put in a brick when their not looking e cen florida
349. IKE
From Miami,FL....

"GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST...AS ENERGY FROM THREE DISTINCT UPPER LOWS IS FORECAST
TO PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE U.S. BY MIDWEEK...LEADING
TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD UPPER LOW ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE...AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL STREAM WILL
PERSIST...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING THAT A MORE PROMINENT
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FEATURE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA MAY
WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT. IF THIS INDEED
OCCURS...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...WITH SHOWERS/STORMS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA. RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT...THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AS SOUTHWESTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER JET STRENGTHENS ADVECTING RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE LIMITED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES...

ALTHOUGH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY OFFSET THIS SOMEWHAT...
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY BE
PRESENT...AS PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF
THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO END ON SATURDAY
MORNING...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO WEST WITH PASSAGE OF COLD
FRONT. DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY."
Heatwave keeps rescue services busy across city

Rescuers working in sweltering heat have helped at least four hikers on Table Mountain, while fire services battled a number of blazes, and lifeguards monitored packed beaches.

Three people died in a fire in Bishop Lavis at the weekend, and a fire on Sunday gutted 39 shacks in Railway Street, Woodstock, leaving about 110 people homeless.

No one was injured in the Woodstock blaze, the cause of which had not been established by late on Sunday.

The temperature soared to 38°C in the city centre and peaked at about 45°C in Vredendal on Sunday.

The heat wave is expected to continue on on Monday.
http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=14&art_id=vn20100308041948780C360581
PAGASA: Heatwave possible due to El Niño

MANILA, Philippines - Weather bureau PAGASA on Monday warned of hotter days ahead as the summer season officially starts and the El Niño phenomenon brings an earlier dry spell to the country.

Nathaniel Cruz, PAGASA deputy administrator for operations and services, said recent temperatures recorded in Metro Manila showed that the region is slowly heating up.

Metro Manila experienced its warmest day on Saturday after temperatures hit 35.8 degrees Celsius. It also reached a record 35.5 degrees Celsius last Wednesday.

"There is a high possibility that we could experience a heatwave so we need to prepare for it. If the temperature hits 40 degrees in just one day, that is OK. But if it reaches 39 to 40 degrees and stays that way for up to 5 days, the effect is tremendous. Even if we don't reach 39 degrees but just 37 degrees in Metro Manila and it stays that way for 5 days, the effect is tremendous," Cruz said in a radio dzMM interview.

At least two people have died due to heatstroke over the weekend, an ANC report said Monday.

The first fatality was a hypertensive government employee in Tuguegarao who died because of the intense heat while the second victim was a 16-year-old in Zarraga, Iloilo who collapsed while playing basketball.

Cruz, meanwhile, said he expects temperatures in Metro Manila and the rest of the country to go higher, reaching its peak in the middle of summer from mid-April to May. He added that the hotter weather could continue until June if the rainy season is delayed.

The PAGASA official said Metro Manila normally registers higher temperatures compared to nearby provinces such as Bulacan and Pampanga since it is considered an "urban heat island" with a lot of concrete structures.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/metro-manila/03/08/10/pagasa-heatwave-possible-due-el-ni%C3%B1o
Morning Ike, Havent seen you for awhile 33.7 here in zephyrhills this fine day
353. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Morning Ike, Havent seen you for awhile 33.7 here in zephyrhills this fine day


Been busy.

Warmer weather is on the way. May approach 80 here later this week before a cool down.
I will take the warmer weather. I like the cold but 3 months is enought. lol I made it up to 66.7 yesterday and that was like paradise.
37 degrees this morning in Lakeland.

I declare Florida a new frozen tundra.
Quoting severstorm:
I will take the warmer weather. I like the cold but 3 months is enought. lol I made it up to 66.7 yesterday and that was like paradise.


Same here, this is March for crying out loud not January. Suppose to get about 80 by Thursday, lets hope so!
this cold weather has been great to wipe out the bugs and critters that are not suppose to live in florida the cold snap was needed
Morning Ike, long time no see....can't beat the warmer weather. let's just hope it's here to stay
359. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Morning Ike, long time no see....can't beat the warmer weather. let's just hope it's here to stay


Suppose to cool back down this coming weekend...highs in the 60's...lows in the 40's.

Daylight savings time starts Sunday @ 2 am.
You stii in Florabama Ike?
361. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
You stii in Florabama Ike?


Yup. Defuniak Springs.....
That's good, We're safe again this year. Storms are scared of you.....lol
363. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
That's good, We're safe again this year. Storms are scared of you.....lol


Hopefully.
I was reading up on the farmers alm. and on some post the other day, (try not to read too much. it hurts). Seems to be a the general idea we might have an active year on the gulf coast
365. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
I was reading up on the farmers alm. and on some post the other day, (try not to read too much. it hurts). Seems to be a the general idea we might have an active year on the gulf coast


Wouldn't surprise me.
Good Morning Folks.....Spring is just about here with a high of 80 forecast for Tallahassee on Friday. Let's hope we don't have one of those Winter to Summer transitions but the temps in the morning will be nice and brisk for the next several weeks while SST's around Florida and the Gulf start to recover. Amazing how Mother Nature knows when it is Spring. Very quiet in the yard on my wooded lot (birds and the like) for the past several weeks but working in the yard all day yesterday cutting back trees and vines, I felt like I was in a Disney movie with all the birds and squirels watching me work.
Heavens open up over NSW

# From: The Daily Telegraph
# March 08, 2010 11:52PM



COLLIDING weather systems have dumped record rain on parts of western NSW, soaking one town with its biggest downpour in more than 60 years.


A "conveyor belt" of storms dropped 110mm of rain on Wagga Wagga in the 24 hours to 9am yesterday - the most in a single day since records began in 1942.

"I've never seen anything like it," property owner Tanya Friend said.

"From Friday night to Sunday everything just became a river - then Sunday night we got our biggest downpour," she said.

The deluge forced the evacuation of residents in Ladysmith, southeast of Wagga, after the swollen Kyeamba Creek threatened to flood homes.
Flooding from the same system cut the main rail line from Sydney to Melbourne and prompted the rescue of four motorists near Narrandera.

Weather Channel meteorologist Alex Zadnik blamed the wild conditions on a pair of weather systems that collided over the weekend above southern NSW and Victoria.

"Tropical moisture moved down from the Northern Territory and through Queensland and that became a low pressure system," Mr Zadnik said.

"There was a region of cool air moving into southern Australia at the same time and the clash of that cooler air mass from the south and the tropical moisture from the north led to some pretty violent weather."

A trough line sitting above Wagga meant it bore the brunt of the rain.

"It meant that rather than getting just one storm they were getting numerous storms moving across the one spot like a conveyor belt," Mr Zadnik said.

The 110mm of rain, more than double the town's March average, has been a blessing for farmers in the area, filling dams and adding vital sub-soil moisture to help future crops.
48.5 This morning in Feather Sound, FL.

Looks like Thursday may bring us some thunder storms here on the Florida Penn.
World's Coolest Hot Springs

Sometimes surreal, always sublime, and occasionally stinky, these 10 steaming pools of wellness are worth a dip.
By Donna Heiderstadt
Travel + Leisure

From the icy tundra of Alaska to the arid desert of the Atacama, our molten-to-the-core planet is laced with underground plumbing that regularly springs a surface leak. And visiting these hot springs can be a therapeutic addition to any vacation.

An hour or two in a thermal pool—especially one surrounded by natural beauty and clean air—is just about the greenest way to relax and recharge, courtesy of our blue planet.
Even though we have active radar in some tornado sensitive parts of the country today, there are currently no tornado watches or tornado warnings...and none expected in the coming days.

This is very interesting as there are some pretty heavy cells just east of Amarillo this morning.

I've read through some weather statements. Apparently, there is still not enough of a separation between cold, dry air and warm, moist air. It is still pretty much all mixed together, as temps down south still are not seasonably warm.
Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation




Live Without Limits
New Orleans, Louisiana
March 10, 2010
PROGRAM AGENDA

10:00 AM – 10:15 AM
Introduction

Master of Ceremonies:
Patrick Pearson
Volunteer, Portlight Strategies

Joe Canose
Vice President, Quality of Life, and Director of the Paralysis Resource Center,
Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation

10:15 AM - 10:30 AM
Opening Remarks

Brandon Burris
Executive Director, Louisiana Governors Commission on Disability

10:30 AM – 11:00 AM
Introduction to the Paralysis Resource Center
and Quality of Life Grant Program

Priti Mehta
Director of Community Outreach Programs,
Christopher & Dana Reeve Foundation

11:00 AM – 11:10 AM

Paul Timmons
CEO, Portlight Strategies

11:10 AM – 11:20 AM

Eric Gibson
Reeve Foundation Ambassador

11:30 PM – 12:00 PM
Question and Answer Session with Priti Mehta, Joe Canose and Reeve Foundation Ambassadors

12:00 PM
Closing Remarks

Deborah E. Nowinski,Emmy Rose
Founding Artistic Director, Dionysus Theatre



Mapquest Directions to The Conference


A few months ago I was contacted by the Christopher Reeve foundation thru portlight and was informed they were coming to New Orleans in March to spread the Word Locally about their Work in the Disabled Community.

Im excited to announce today that there are seats still available here for the Conference this week.

The invite is open to any interested party or Group wanting to attend.

The Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation has been very supportive of Portlight and have graciously given out of Cycle Grants to portlight to support our continuing Mission in Haiti.
Portlight and the Reeve Foundation have partnered together since Hurricane Katrina struck the Gulf Coast in 2005.

New Orleans is Proud to have been selected to Host this WUnderful event and Im Hoping to see a lot of you here next week.

And to augment the days Speakers,Priti Metha,
Director, Reeve Foundation Community Outreach Programs
Center for Development and Disability has been working diligently to make this event one to attend and be part of.


And on a Special note,..2 wunderbloggers will be speaking at the Conference next week..

Wunderblogger Emmy Rose from Galveston Bay is one of the Days fine Speakers as she has been a Advocate for the Disabled for many a Year in Texas,and her work with her Theater for the Disabled,is a Testament to her and all she does within the Houston/Galveston area.

Also Speaking, is Presslord, or Paul Timmons,Board Chair for Portlight.org and we look Forward to their Words as they both have a enlightening History within the Disabled Community.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
World's Coolest Hot Springs


San Antonio Hot Springs - Jemez Mountains, NM




This is our favorite! The forest road leading to it is 5 miles long, and is closed in the winter. Once the road opens in May, we drive our ATV to the location. It is a short hike up to the spring.

The Army Corps of Engineers created the spring. It has four levels, which are fed by the main pipes shoved into the mountainside.

The water coming out of the "main pipe" is very hot and not steady, even though it is a torrent. It comes out like whoosh-splat, whoosh-spat...

It feels like "the hand of God" patting you on the back.
Quoting CycloneOz:


San Antonio Hot Springs - Jemez Mountains, NM




This is our favorite! The forest road leading to it is 5 miles long, and is closed in the winter. Once the road opens in May, we drive our ATV to the location. It is a short hike up to the spring.

The Army Corps of Engineers created the spring. It has four levels, which are fed by the main pipes shoved into the mountainside.

The water coming out of the "main pipe" is very hot and not a steady, even though it is a torrent.

It feels like "the hand of God" patting you on the back.

What's the temps in the different pools?
Quoting AussieStorm:

What's the temps in the different pools?


120 top
115 2nd
110 3rd
100 4th
Quoting CycloneOz:


120 top
115 2nd
110 3rd
100 4th

I'll start in the 4th and work my way up. I can handle pretty high temps in the bath and shower, sometimes even only hot water on which is set at 140. I do come out looking like a lobster.
San Antonio Hot Springs - Jemez Mountains, NM

Another shot of these beautiful springs

Quoting AussieStorm:

I'll start in the 4th and work my way up. I can handle pretty high temps in the bath and shower, sometimes even only hot water on which is set at 140. I do come out looking like a lobster.


I go right to the spigot!
379. JRRP
Quoting CycloneOz:
San Antonio Hot Springs - Jemez Mountains, NM

Another shot of these beautiful springs


It really is nice having something this spectacular within 45 minutes of my home.

I miss the beach, but if I were to choose somewhere else to spend my life other than a beach, it would be right here where I am now.

The ATV is a great substitute for a boat!
Oz -- Love, love, love NM!

Haven't been to the hot springs; thanks for the excuse to come back...as if any excuse was needed!

"The light is different there..."
LSU Earth Scan Lab

Welcome to the LSU Earth Scan Lab. The ESL is a satellite data receiving station and image processing facility for environmental data from six unique earth observing sensor systems. We specialize in real-time access to satellite imagery and measurements of the atmosphere, oceans and coastal areas within the Gulf of Mexico / Caribbean Sea region, data which we obtain directly from satellite transmissions to three antennas on LSU rooftops.

These data have many applications for research, education, and state emergency response.
This will mean something to at least few of you...

SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE 10-17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
945 AM EST MON MAR 8 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-NOAAPORT
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: THERESE Z. PIERCE
CHIEF...MARINE AND COASTAL SERVICES BRANCH

SUBJECT: CHANGE TO CODING OF HIGH DENSITY OBSERVATION /HDOB/
MESSAGE FOR MISSING DATA: EFFECTIVE JULY 15 2010

EFFECTIVE JULY 15 2010...THE CODING OF THE HDOB MESSAGE FOR
MISSING DATA TRANSMITTED FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WILL CHANGE FROM 999 TO ///. THIS CHANGE IS BEING MADE
FOR HDOBS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE CODING OF MISSING DATA FOUND
IN OTHER METEOROLOGICAL DATA MESSAGES.

IN ADVANCE OF THIS CHANGE...USERS OF HDOB MESSAGES MAY NEED TO
MAKE CHANGES TO THEIR SOFTWARE TO CORRECTLY PROCESS THE NEW DATA
FORMAT.

THERE WILL BE NO CHANGES TO WMO HEADINGS OR AWIPS IDS OF THE
HDOB MESSAGES.

IF THERE ARE ANY CHANGES TO THE IMPLEMENTATION DATE... AN
ADDITIONAL SERVICE CHANGE NOTICE WILL BE ISSUED AS EARLY AS
POSSIBLE TO NOTIFY USERS. FOR EXAMPLE IF THERE IS AN ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE DAYS PRIOR TO JULY 15...OR TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AROUND THIS DATE... A NEW
IMPLEMENTATION DATE WILL BE PROVIDED.

THE OLD AND NEW HDOB MESSAGE FORMATS WILL BE PROVIDED IN THE
2010 NATIONAL HURRICANE OPERATIONS PLAN /NHOP/ APPENDIX G. THE
2010 NHOP WILL BE AVAILABLE BY JUNE 1 2010 AT /USE LOWERCASE/:

HTTP://WWW.OFCM.GOV

High Density Observations (HDOB) Bulletin



The HDOB message is used to transmit High-Density/High Accuracy (HD/HA) meteorological data from hurricane reconnaissance aircraft. These are created automatically by the system software. Each message consists of a communications header line (Table G-3), a mission/ob identifier line (Table G-4), and 20 lines of HD/HA data (Table G-5).

Within an HDOB message, the time interval (resolution) between individual HD/HA observations can be set by the operator to be 30, 60, or 120 seconds.

However, regardless of the time resolution of the HD/HA data, the meteorological parameters in the HDOB message always represent 30-s averages along the flight track (except for certain peak values as noted in Table G-5).

The nominal time of each HD/HA record is the midpoint of the 30-s averaging interval. This means that an HD/HA record at time t will include data measured at time t 15 s. For purposes of determining peak flight-level and SFMR winds, the encoding interval begins 15 s after the nominal time of the last HD/HA record and ends 15 s after the nominal time of the record being encoded.


Figure G-2. Sample HDOB message (message begins with URNT15...)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
01234567890123456789012345678901234567890123456789012345678901234567890
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

URNT15 KNHC 281426
AF302 1712A KATRINA HDOB 41 20050928
142030 2608N 08756W 7093 03047 9333 192 134 133083 089 080 999 00
142100 2609N 08755W 7091 03054 9330 166 146 133106 115 103 999 00
142130 2610N 08754W 7058 03040 9295 134 134 135121 124 111 999 00
142200 2611N 08753W 7037 03060 9291 124 124 138129 136 122 999 00
.
.
.
142230 2612N 08752W 7010 03057 9282 102 102 141153 166 148 999 00
142300 2612N 08751W 7042 03010 9293 088 083 133159 164 147 999 00
142330 2613N 08750W 6999 03064 9279 088 088 138158 161 144 999 00
142400 2614N 08749W 7005 03046 9281 080 080 138155 158 142 999 00
142430 2614N 08748W 6998 03048 9278 078 078 138151 153 137 999 00
142500 2615N 08747W 7002 03048 9279 084 084 140146 148 133 999 00
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
Oz -- Love, love, love NM!

Haven't been to the hot springs; thanks for the excuse to come back...as if any excuse was needed!

"The light is different there..."


I find the place "enchanting" as all get-out!

Robert Redford LOVES it here! Alot of movies being made here now...one is shooting today here in Los Alamos.

Gene Hackman lives here. Dennis Hopper, he's just right down the road (he's fighting cancer right now, too.)

It's a better place than California is right now. I hope we don't ruin it!
Aha! Good follow up, Pat!
atmo,u going to Red Stick on the 16th for the Conference Dude?
I got a HDOB Google Alert on the NOAA message atmo...
This is taken from the old hill road going into town.

I live in the "Old West," where daunting mesas tower over dangerous canyons.

Closer to our home, and historically very interesting:



Berkeley Springs, West Virginia
The Country's First Spa


The Story of Berkeley Springs

History of Berkeley Springs, West Virginia - The Country's First Spa
Berkeley Springs, a fountainhead of warm mineral waters frequented by Native Americans long before Europeans arrived in the New World, are at the heart of a mountain spa community in West Virginia's Eastern Panhandle. First noted as Medicine Springs in 1747 on a map drawn by Thomas Jefferson's father, the waters for many centuries have drawn visitors seeking health and relief from the stress of everyday life.

In 1776, George Washington's family and friends drew up a plat of 134 lots, named the streets, and incorporated The Town of Bath, invoking the muses of the renowned English spa. Yet the magic of the springs prevailed, and the town and surrounding area are known by their name -- Berkeley Springs.

The waters flow at a constant 74F from the base of Warm Springs Ridge. You may still drink freely and fill your jugs at Lord Fairfax's public tap, and wade in the ancient stone pools in the nation's smallest state park. The town has endured cycles of notoriety, fashion, war and modern progress, but remains the Country's First Spa, a quiet, friendly haven surrounded by West Virginia's splendid outdoors.

NOTE: If this is considered spamming, Admin, just please remove and don't ban me again, please -- good intentions...
Quoting Patrap:
atmo,u going to Red Stick on the 16th for the Conference Dude?

I *think* so. Got a bunch to get done between now and then.

Unfortunately, I think I am trading that for the March 10 event down your way. Sure would be easier to get together if I had any work-related reason to be on the southshore...

I am going to call ya up next time we go to the zoo, though. Stone's throw from da house.
Quoting Patrap:
I got a HDOB Google Alert on the NOAA message atmo...

Ah. I hope tropicalatlantic.com either knows about it or has coded in such a way that it doesn't matter. That is one very useful site in season.

Back at it, L8R.
Quoting atmoaggie:

I *think* so. Got a bunch to get done between now and then.

Unfortunately, I think I am trading that for the March 10 event down your way. Sure would be easier to get together if I had any work-related reason to be on the southshore...

I am going to call ya up next time we go to the zoo, though. Stone's throw from da house.



Sounds Like a Plan,..the Zoo close and a fun day for sure.

Were going to have a fine time here Tuesday thru Friday with visitors and the Reeve Foundations Conference
Quoting CycloneOz:


I find the place "enchanting" as all get-out!

Robert Redford LOVES it here! Alot of movies being made here now...one is shooting today here in Los Alamos.

Gene Hackman lives here. Dennis Hopper, he's just right down the road (he's fighting cancer right now, too.)

It's a better place than California is right now. I hope we don't ruin it!


Las Cruces has been named one of the 10 Best Places to Retire... I forget which magazine... prob. AARP or U.S. News and World Report.

Shhh, let's keep that between ourselves.
Quoting Patrap:



Sounds Like a Plan,..the Zoo close and a fun day for sure.

Were going to have a fine time here Tuesday thru Friday with visitors and the Reeve Foundations Conference


Oh, and you could possibly join us there, if interested. Grand parents got us a membership that includes free passes in excess of our fam of 4 so they could join when visiting. Get at least one every time we go.

Really out, now.
We would most certainly go atmo...thanks
hey guys what's up with our south atlantic invest
FYI, on a tornado item. It appears the revised stats for the US in Feb, went from 0 (which has never happened) to 1 :)

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/newm.html
Good morning all. Round 2 is underway here. Wind gusts are already approaching 50mph at my house.

WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KENAI...SOLDOTNA...HOMER...
COOPER LANDING
502 AM AKST MON MAR 8 2010

BLIZZARD WARNING

IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
TUESDAY AROUND KACHEMAK BAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
TUESDAY AROUND KACHEMAK BAY. THE BLIZZARD WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

A POWERFUL STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND
THEN MOVE INLAND OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA TONIGHT. AS IT
APPROACHES THE KENAI PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG KACHEMAK BAY. THESE WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW TO PRODUCE VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHEN THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS
AND POOR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WHITE-OUT
CONDITIONS...MAKING TRAVEL EXTREMELY DANGEROUS. ALL TRAVEL AND
OUTDOOR ACTIVITY IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~






Hey all.
So what is up? Is the Atlantic cooling??
Quoting benirica:
Hey all.
So what is up? Is the Atlantic cooling??


No cooling, still warming...



Quoting benirica:
Hey all.
So what is up? Is the Atlantic cooling??


Wasn't cooling in the first place, at least nothing too abnormal.
Quoting Levi32:


That's a impressive low pressure reading, 964mb.


Most of the water vapor is still in the Pacific heading your way. But what a stream of moisture.



Roughly 5099 miles of a Moisture plume coming into the center of this storm. Thats a whole lot of water.
404. JRRP
Quoting benirica:
Hey all.
So what is up? Is the Atlantic cooling??

part yes and part no

Quoting StormChaser81:


That's a impressive low pressure reading, 964mb.


Most of the water vapor is still in the Pacific heading your way. But what a stream of moisture.



Roughly 5099 miles of a Moisture plume coming into the center of this storm. Thats a whole lot of water.


Yeah it has a decent moisture plume. The last one had even more. This storm won't dump as much snow as the last one but is more dangerous to be out in. Due to its rapidly strengthening nature (could get down to the mid-950s in the next 12 hours) the winds are much higher and blizzard conditions have already moved in here.

Precipitable Water

South of france WTH?

Quoting CycloneUK:
South of france WTH?



Lol that's the result of an elongated polar vortex that stretches out ENE over eastern Europe. It's got a nice kick to it.


Goodbye El Niño
Quoting CycloneUK:


Goodbye El Niño


Thanks... it was good having you around last hurricane season...
just curious to see how many WU bloggers have read and studied up on HARRP. I used to be a cynic and made fun of people wearing tin foil hats. I must say thought after reading as much as i did this weekend....I am concerned about what is taking place with their facilities. I am not saying that they are completely controlling hurricanes...but something very weird is going on there. Why would we want to heat up the ionosphere? I have been here a long time (2005) and hate to be cast as a freak all of a sudden...but this stuff is crazy.