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Little Change to Alberto

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:38 AM GMT on June 12, 2006

This is Shaun reporting for Dr. Masters one last time before he updates us all tomorrow.
Little has changed in the structure of Alberto since the last recon flight investigated the storm. The reported center of the storm is actually the mean position of several swirls within the interior of the storm.
The satellite image (Figure 1) shows that most of the deep convection remains on the east side of the storm west Florida will soon be receiving heavy rain and thunderstorms as seen on the regional radar (Figure 2).
As for the movement of the storm, it was moving north-northeastward at 6 mph as per the latest update. The upper-level ridge of high pressure over Florida has weakened, but the lower-level ridge has remained strong while shifting to the north. This, combined with southwesterly upper-level flow pattern, will create a strong shear environment that should do a good job of ripping Alberto apart.
After its turn to the northeast, some strengthening of the system is possible due to weakening shear, but any strengthening will not be too intense.
The official forecast track has not changed (Figure 3) very much since the last update.
Figure 1. IR satellite image of Alberto.

Figure 2. Regional radar for Florida.

Figure 3. Official NHC forecast track.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

C. 925 mb 732 m -- what's this stat?
YAY!
I miss the old layout of the satellite products. Whereas these are more helpful and from official sources, they are much less user friendly.
From the last blog Haydes. 51kts at flight level correct 10% at the surface would be 46kts, solid tropical storm. forcast to get stronger in 24 to 36.
That is Flight Level Hades
Little change to Alberto? The computer models show landfall between Tallahassee and New Orleans. lol
rlwalker unless there is an extreme turn to the northwest, IT NOT GONNA HAPPEN, lol.
oh okay
Alberto has had a nice burst of convection in the NE quadrant. This burst is much deeper then most of the convection we've seen today, however still obviously being sheared from the SW. This round of convection also looks to be much closer to the ciculation center, but it is hard to tell during the nightime hours. It almost appears that there is an enlongated SW-NE low pressure area from about 24.5N 88W to near 26N 86W with many small scale circulations embedded within. Still hard to tell what kinda of movement the low level center as a whole is making, if any, so I'm gonna go to bed and see what's happened in the morning.
Are the white dots moving rapidly in the collapse of the old center? On the last three frames – zoomed and now its shifted back to a smaller center??? last frame.
oh dear god is it going west too – we’ll never hear the end of it! - check the last few frames
New models should be out in about an hr or two

JFLORIDA, when you wake up you will see the same thing you seen sat morning. Difference is that yes the convection is at the center again and in 24 hours or less the shear is expected to drop and is forcast to strengthen to landfall.
It is not moving west it is on a steady pace to the NE, get prepared.
someone wanted an update on our locations in Tampa- South Tampa here... near Bayshore Blvd.
Im worried about the dim area on the full view ir – that would correspond to the vis sector – it might have shifted west. With the center emerging on the other side of the recent convection.
land fall New Orleans you are jokeing are you they do not need it right now
Posted By: TPAweatherguy at 1:04 AM EDT on June 12, 2006.
what are you talking about ctampa? I live off bayshore by the way..
We're probably neighbors.
freakster asked for locations for all of us Tampa folks. Sorry to jump in like that. I am a frequent lurker, but rarely post.
yes E NE
Ctampa the NHC has a good handle on this storm as far as track goes, intensity is always a ?. It is forcast to pass to the north of Tampa, you are in the cone of error though, Expect TS force winds through landfall.
Thanks for the update Shaun!
PP= Thanks for the info. I'm not expecting much here. Bayshore already flooded today when the one and only band went through, but that is all I think we should expect. By the way, Bayshore can flood from less than a TS. :)
Some of the 0z model runs are out here.
low level circulation seems to drift west in the last few frames, prob dosn't mean much though, he's shredded
Yea Tampa has some bad feeder bands coming in now
Hey whens the next NWS statement out
StormJunkie- thanks for the updated link. If my novice eyes and tired mind are reading the new ones correctly, it looks like they need to adjust the NHC track much further to the west.
I still haven't heard a rumble or gust of wind since this afternoon. It seems to dissipate before it reaches Tampa Bay.
Thank StormJ, the new models should be closer.
St. Marks, 45knots, mid day Tuesday. (Col. Mustard, in the kitchen, with a rope...oops, wrong game!)
hmm 1006 mb pressure now
100 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...10
KM/HR ...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
400 AM CDT.
36. MJH
the storm has never went east it was supposed to many hours ago. The models will definetly go west. I just wonder why the NHC is so delayed when it is obvious to everyone else?
Night see you guys in the AM - stay dry!!!
Those models still depict the forcast track from the NHC and they do not have the latest ONLY center fix, you can throw out the outlier. I still say just north of Tampa, Strong TS, Border Cat1
39. MJH
No way Tampa amd No way near a Cat1
Plot the last 3 recon fixes and you will find that it has moved wnw.
Evening SirVivor.

Anywho, the do not need to shift the forecast way W, they need to shift it N a little, but it looks like it will ride right up the E coast and exit NC after it comes in around the center to left of center of the big bend.

SJ
Good night all. i'd guess the panhandle, but we shall see tomorrow if he's still together.
If you look at the Northwest loop you can see the top of Alberto Starting to Flatten, the shortwave trough is taking over. And yes is is coming down strong and getting stronger.
Turn on the trop points in the floater and look at the last couple of frames. Unless this was updated to a more westerly track already, the system appears south and east of the "official track".

It looks like they moved the floater (notice how everything jumps down) without moving the forecast points.
I though we we to have a slow start to the season, lol!
At least this year (so far) has not been like 1886.
Guys this IS headed to the Big Bend of Florida, hands down. NHC has a great handle on the track, follow it and people in the path prepare for a catagory or 2 higher.
Your not seeing shear from the southeast are ya?
52. MJH
Prepare for a cat2 hurricane!! That is a little ridiculous. If you live on the coast prepare for some much needed rain and some strong thunder storms. Cat2, they dont need to be lied to.
Sorry MJH that is a common statement we carry here in FL to be prepared for the worst. We always hope for the best though, never lie to anyone.
Word to my chat folks!
56. MJH
It is hurricane season and everyone should be prepared for a major hurricane this season. It will be likely for someone this season. Maybe as early as the beginning of July.
57. Alec
oops....im still searching CJ....lol
Major hurricanes can occur in June, even a Category 4 hurricane can occur.
I do beieve what your seeing in the N movement is the convection building over the center again. It is in it's Diurnal Max, I do believe you will see the same the same sheared storm most of the day tomorrow until the shear relaxes as it takes it's turn to the NE. It will have 12 hours to strengthen to landfall.
well,I got the tropical storm right BUT, got the landfall way way off if the forecast map holds true.
Storm Junkie,

As usual, I think we are on the same page. I almost said Appalach...but then looking at the steering currents, I felt like a slightly more easterly turn, which would put it at St. Marks...aka the big bend...tracking through to J'ville and going extratropical...possibly, depending on what it encounters on the other side, it might bite Cape Fear and the outer banks on the hiney. I think they are overdue for a hit....but it probably won't be this one...maybe later in the season.
I think it will take a run at a Cat1, have a good night.
Hey is it me or does it look like the main center is trying to reform on the SW corner of the newest convection blob?
25-30 north, 40-45 west on the central atlantic water vapor loop spinning.....Can anyone tell me waht that is??? I saw it last nite too. Very curious..Thanx
oops forgot the link
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html
agreed on the strengthening a little bit
Yeah this is showing some of the best convection so far in its lifetime. It may finally be trying to get at least a little better organized. Definitely a diurnal maximum going on right now.

Link
LOL your going to have to explain that one....
diurnal maximum ????????
Do you have any idea how sad it is that you have to post first?
what time does the new report come out???
The 5am update should be out in the next 5-10 minutes...
...Alberto strengthens...Tropical Storm Warning issued...
At 4 am CDT...0900 UTC...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued
for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass. A
Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Englewood to
Bonita Beach.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 400 am CDT...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Alberto was
located near latitude 26.2 north...longitude 87.2 west or about 275
miles...445 km...south-southwest of Apalachicola Florida and about
320 miles...515 km...southwest of Cedar Key Florida.

Alberto is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph...13 km/hr
...And a turn to the northeast is expected over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased and are now near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 230 miles...370
km...to the northeast and southeast of the center. The large extent
of tropical storm force winds means that these winds will be felt
along the coast well in advance of the arrival of the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb...29.56 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...can be expected over a large portion of the warning area.
Storm total rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with isolated
maximum amounts to 10 inches...are possible through Tuesday across
portions of central and northern Florida and southeastern
Georgia...mainly along and to the right of the track of Alberto.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over west-central and northwestern
Florida tonight.
Repeating the 400 am CDT position...26.2 N...87.2 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50
mph. Minimum central pressure...1001 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 700 am CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1000
am CDT.

Forecaster Franklin

Good Morning to all on the Doctor's blog.
seems to be getting it's act together.
'morning
NHC has updated the tracking map. Has storm warnings up!!!!!
000
WTNT31 KNHC 120842
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
400 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

...ALBERTO STRENGTHENS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

AT 4 AM CDT...0900 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD TO INDIAN PASS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.2 WEST OR ABOUT 275
MILES...445 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
320 MILES...515 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA.

ALBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR
...AND A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370
KM...TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE LARGE EXTENT
OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MEANS THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE FELT
ALONG THE COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 6 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...CAN BE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS TO 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OF ALBERTO.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
FLORIDA TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 400 AM CDT POSITION...26.2 N...87.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

good morning all..does anybody know if nhc is going to post a 5am discussion, and if not when will the next one be?
thanx
sometimes they are a little slow in releasing the discussion. Keep re-trying...
the convection on the ne side is really intensifying!!!Hmmmmmm.....
although the last reconnaissance aircraft pass through Alberto near
05z found only a flat pressure gradient with a minimum of 1006 mb
and no clear center...the cyclone has become better organized since
then. Deep convection has developed and built westward against the
shear...and the low-cloud lines in the night-vis imagery suggest
that a center is becoming better defined just to the west of this
convection. A dropsonde on the edge of the convection reported 40
kt at the surface at 06z...and the pressure at buoy 42003 has
fallen to 1002.9 mb. Based on these observations the advisory
intensity has been increased to 45 kt. The next reconnaissance
aircraft will be in the system in about three hours.
The initial motion is 020/7. Model guidance is not in very good
agreement on the future track of Alberto...which is still embedded
in a environment of strong southwesterly shear. However...the
UKMET and NOGAPS both drop an upper low into the western Gulf that
backs the flow just enough to allow a more northward track than the
current official forecast. For now...the official forecast has
been shifted just a little to the left of the previous track...and
most closely resembles the GFS...which had been indicating a
redevelopment of the center to the northeast.
None of the guidance models suggest that the southwesterly shear
will decrease dramatically...but if the UKMET and NOGAPS are
correct it will decrease enough to allow some further organization.
The official forecast is a blend of the SHIPS and GFDL guidance.
The large extent of tropical storm force winds dictates a Tropical
Storm Warning at this time. These winds are expected to reach the
coast well in advance of the arrival of the center.

Forecaster Franklin
85. IKE
Boy...looks more impressive this morning!
86. IKE
Oh no that discussion...it may make it up here to the panhandle of Florida. We need the rain, but...
check out thr ir loop. Really shows strengthening
88. IKE
It's blowing up around the center...ugh........shear must be lessening. I thought it might have one more shot!
89. IKE
buoy 260 miles south of PC....38 MPH winds...NINETEEN foot seas...pressure down to 29.62...it's strengthening!
Ike, if it's rain u need, rain you will get. We got lucky down here in Miami. Really cloudy but, not too much rain.
91. IKE
Definitely rain...
I have been checking last few hours....
Definitly seems to be getting stronger
that main blob really got stronger over those few hours!!!!!!
seems like that is where the center is. Round, storms starting to wrap around center.
I see Alberto is having an early morning workout!
yea really blossomed last few hours. Hmmmmm....
I see the official track has jogged a bit more to the left also.
check out the water vapor loops
Hmmmmmm
99. IKE
Agree...thunderstorms are blowing up over the center. I can't get my link to work for the computer models. Anyone out there provide me with a link???
I though this storm would be struggling right now BUT, sure appears to be getting healthier.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200601_model.html
103. IKE
On water vapor...that dry air is losing the battle...WOW...impressive!
yea saw that too
Storm is really blossoming and slight storm activity is swirling around the center... Could it have time to become a Cat 1 Hurricane!?!? I would think at this strengthing rate it has that possibility.
The GFDL shows Berto moving right over there!
storm punching right into the dry air...
Panama City I mean.
Hmmmmmm... man we can have another weird storm. Everyone in the cone should really start to pay attention to this thing. LOL that stormtop guy said it would be a cat 1 storm. Maybe not so far off after all
110. IKE
Thanks for the links...looks like a panhandle to big bend landfall..ugh...IF the models are right...their ALL up here!

Wonder why they haven't shifted the warnings further north or at least included us in a watch?
I completely agree... Storm keeps strengthening like it appears to be doing within the last few hours we could have us a Category 1 Hurricane...

I'm going to say landfall at the Florida Panhandle.
The diurnal is at its worse right now....let's see what happens by noon or after today as far as strengthening cause I don't think we will know enough by the 11am.
113. IKE
It could be close.

On TWC just now they showed....hurricane Alberto...just a msitake...I guess...for now...
Best to prepare for the worst....
Hope for the best.
Way this thing looks now I think I might start preparing.
Maybe their getting the idea it could become a Hurricane LOL... Gotta love their rubbing their Hurricane Coverage in - Guess trying to compete with CNN & Fox News.
INLAND t.s. WARNING NOW UP FOR fl CHECK OUT NWS SITE
Alberto seems to be sitting over the hot spot of the loop current, and I think that it has a good shot of at least a Cat1 in the next 6 - 12 hours. I also belive that it will head more northward and head for the panhandle. I think that people in Flordia are going to wake up this morning to a bit of a suprise....
118. IKE
It's suppose to hit in about 24 hours. It's got time...unfortunately for us......
What is this diurnal I keep hearing??????
If any of you live in that area or especially to the left of the cone....you should prepare at first light if you are not already. This could be another of "those" storms.
Ike I would start preparing just in case thats for sure.
122. IKE
I was sleeping...woke up and saw that radar/satellite with it back building and I knew something was going on.

Agree... a lot of surprised folks this morning.
123. gecko
Something is blooming in the Pacific too just at the same rate! You can see both on the Eastern Pacific Infrared Ch. 4 Loop.
Gonna be a lot of grumpy people up that way today.
telling u guys I have been watching for like 3 hours WOW Major blowup!!!
LOL all the main bloggers here going to be real suprised when they 1st see this
FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND
MOST CLOSELY RESEMBLES THE GFS...WHICH HAD BEEN INDICATING A
REDEVELOPMENT OF THE CENTER TO THE NORTHEAST.

NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY...BUT IF THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE
CORRECT IT WILL DECREASE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FURTHER ORGANIZATION.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS DICTATES A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AT THIS TIME. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
COAST WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

From latest discussion.
We just might have the 1st hurricane of 2006 season!!
We could possibly have cat.1 for a short time.
hard to believe that it nudged that dry air so much.....like a wall
Predictions at Landfall:

75 MPH Winds ( Cat 1 )
992 MB
Posted By: Randrewl at 10:01 AM GMT on June 12, 2006.
We could possibly have cat.1 for a short time.

agreed!!!!
133. IKE
Thunderstorms blew up right over the center. Looks like its only about 300 miles...slightly less...from the coast.
Ike lucky for you guys that it is so close. The sooner it gets there the better.
135. IKE
Could be close...

Ugh....double ugh.......
Come on guys start your predictions.
Check out the heat potential on this map. The black spot is where Alberto is sitting right now.

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/hh3.watl.jsmovie.html
138. IKE
"""Ike lucky for you guys that it is so close.""""

But that works both ways.
Boy, know that double ugh feeling from last year thats for sure!!! Katrina, Wilma, & the other close ones.
One thing for sure like I said prepare for the worst.
I still feel that we are seeing the diurnal blow-up here. The water in that area is not hot enough or warm deep enough to support hardly a TS. Noontime will tell.
142. IKE
I am...my car needs looking at. Brakes are squeeling. Gonne get it checked out this morning, just in case.
Usually means ya going to start needing brake pads soon
the storm is sitting in the warm water going towards Louisiana. If it stalls for any length of time there, it has all the warm water it needs.It also appears to be shifting westward a nudge when the main convection blossomed.
146. IKE
Those thunderstorms are close to the center OR getting there. That buoy 260 miles S of Panama city has 20 foot waves and a current pressure of 29.63..thats about 110 miles ENE of the center.
148. IKE
Still looks like its getting it's act together every frame.

Looks like it's intensifying.
yea agreed that convection getting real close to center.As soon as it starts to wrap.....
Both the CMC and the GFDL are showing Panama City area....the FSU also. But 5 out of six are showing right in that general area for landfall right now.
151. IKE
Oh yeah...thanks for the links on the computer models...they are almost all having it come in between Tallahassee and Panama City. Maybe slightly further west then that.
totally different storm from a few hours ago.
where u at again Ike???
Check them again:
Link
155. IKE
Alberto is getting stronger...just my amateur opinion.
156. IKE
Defuniak Springs...inland about 30 miles...but...I'm on a lake and anytime a storm comes in around here, that east wind just howls up this embankment I live on....
Ike...you'll probably getting some rain in a few hours there. Did you get any overnight?
158. IKE
No rain yet...but the way that IR satellite looks it won't be long.

Their scrolling on the bottom of TWC now...
Good Morning All.

If you live in the State of florida. Please be safe. Roads will be tricky today and tommorow.


WEATHERGUY03- Nailed it again.

Just as I thought.
Local statements for Berto:
Link
161. IKE
That's what is on TWC now...thanks....
Hurricane Alberto will be hear...cant beleive it......the thing looked like it was gone yesterday.....Cant judge a book by its cover.
163. IKE
Two tornado warnings....Sarasota county...Hardy county...
164. IKE
Kim Perez on TWC...not really an expert analysis....
Kim Perez is about an idiot in my opinion just like Cheryl Lemke
166. IKE
Continues to back-build....looks stronger...
TWC....no experts on much.
Now Jen Carfango and Stephanie Abrams - They can be my expert. LOL
169. IKE
They just about need to shift that cone if these models pan out...shift it west...they mentioned it in the NHC discussion.
170. IKE
Jen...oh God....don't get me started...nice
Ike....yes, a possible shift was mentioned. It will be interesting to see how far West they are finally willing to go!
Just can't win, supposed to be heading home back to Tallahassee tomorrow. Unfortunately it's looking like a better organized storm this morning...
My opinion also Heather Tesch is qualifiable as well as the other blonde but I want Jen more lol
Well, good morning. Alberto, the little storm that could.
Is that a hint of outflow on the western part?

West: Sure looks that way... -DAMN- the convection has picked up in 24 hours!!
Where the hell is Indian Pass? Is that Port St. Joe?
When the cap broke over the gulf it sure took advantage of it..
Watch this storm carefully. It will pass over florida and head out to the warm waters of the atlantinc. It will then strengthen and loop back and hit the carolinas as a cat 3.
Indian Pass is the very tip of the Peninsula thatjuts out of the Panhandle-- West of Appalach but East of Pt St Joe. The St Joseph peninsula extends out from Indian Pass to the West then North(like a cuphook) .
WB...thanks...I found it.
WHAT THE HELL? Can someone tell me what happened while I slept....I was joking last night that it might turn into a hurricane.....It looks like it now!
Patrick - Way Negative!!!!
The visible satelite loop looks like the center is further east than the NHC plots , could it have reformed there?
No Tampa...the center is on the WEST side of the blob of convection...its still exposed
Patrick thats so not funny since I am in NC and close enough to the coast that we feel te effects of it here where I am.
check out the GFDL now....even further west.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=01
190. yppub
IKE - I am in Destin. Do you watch channel 7, Jason Kelly? I can no longer get the station since I went to satellite.

Is there any way to get a Private message to you or from you to me without publishing my e-mail address?
Alberto looks like a big beach ball.
Atmos...that WV loop does look just like that! LOL
193. WSI
The lastest hurricane hunter report from the storm was not that impressive. Temperature between the eye and storm was virtually the same, and the max flight wind was 30 kts.


weathercore.com
Hello everyone..........

Where are the Texas Warnings.....OMG

I read on here the other day that was where it was going.....What happened?

Oh well.....lol

Seriously........Alberto has made a comeback. The lastest satellite presentation along with the first visibles shows that the center has been interacting with the convection that will enhance the wind speeds. The convection is very impressive relative to yesterday. If the wind shear drops much more and/or the storm moves more with the shear(not fighting the shear) this has a outside chance of becoming a hurricane. The infrared pics are impressive! Now im pumped up....I may have to drive north from Orlando.....
I personally don't believe recon was actually looking for the highest winds...it looks like they wanted to find the low pressure center this time. The pressure is continuing to drop so I know the winds are still in there.
Link
What happened to those predicting it was going much further west? What happened to all that certitude? Looks like the weather is smarter than us all! ;-)
The 1001mb central pressure is consistent with a surface wind of 45kts or 45mph.
The visuals are all that i care about.....Sometimes it takes a couple of hours for conditions to follow whats happening aloft. It would not surprise me if the winds go up at 11AM. Possibly 60-65mph....we will see....
oops meant 45kts (50mph)
Morning all
ypub, you can send wunder mail. Just click on Ike's name and on the right you will see a "send message" button.

Al looks a little better this morning. It will be interesting to see what the other 6z model runs say.

Find all the models, imagery, and more; including WU blogger storm video at StormJunkie.com


SJ
Morning wbFSU. Thanks again for the video. Let me know if you ever want anymore of it on the site. You have seen it since it was put in the Flash player right?

Thanks again
SJ
Currently there is about a 30% chance that this could become a hurricane.

NHC Graphic
Well, looking at the latest wv loop, it appears there are some large t-storms starting to wrap around a more defone center..... my amateur opinion is that if the current storm trend holds up, we WILL have a catagory one storm at landfall...... the last update was what..... 45knots? i would say at this moment, 55kts, and increasing would be more accurate! ;)

we will see i guess, but when you start seeing the outflow on the visible, and banding on the wv..... this storm is getting its act together pretty quickly! :)

amazing last year and this, how fast these storms can intensify!
Correction make that a 35% chance.
Alberto: "I think I can I think I can..." lol
What a change from yesterday afternoon and even last night. I had thought the system might be completely sheared yesterday, but now that big burst of convection is covering the eastern half of the elongated center, and the center is a little more compact and oriented more west to east, judging from the first few visible sat images. It does look like Alberto will have the chance to strengthen some as it approaches landfall.

Here are some excerpts from last nights forecast discussion from Melbourne FL (no longer easily accessible in archived form since the Federal government defunded and shut down IWIN):

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT MON JUN 12 2006

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE TIMING OF HEAVY RAINS AND 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM ALBERTO IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BEEN CLOSELY FOLLOWING TAMPA RADAR LOOP AND RUNNING THE DISTANCE SPEED AWIPS TOOL TO GET A
BETTER FEEL FOR ETA OF RAIN SHIELD FOR BOTH PUBLIC AND AVIATION PRODUCTS. WITH ALBERTO`S PATH CURRENTLY GOING NNE MUCH OF THE HEAVY
PRECIP HAS STAYED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA. ONCE THE STORM`S PATH SHIFTS MORE
NORTHEAST THE HEAVIER PRECIP SHOULD START TO IMPACT WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE TODAY/AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ALSO BETTER TIME FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR/HELICITY AND POSSIBLE TORNADO
FORMATION IN FAST MOVING AREAS OF RAIN TO BE ADDRESSED IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK/HWO.

TUE-WED...LATEST NHC TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ALBERTO ONSHORE THE NW FL COAST/BIG BEND AROUND MIDDAY TUES....WITH TS FORCE WINDS PRECEDING IT TO THE EAST. THESE WINDS MAY AFFECT THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF EC FL IF TRACK/INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS CONSISTENT AND HAVE INDICATED WINDY CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THESE SECTIONS BUT WILL WAIT THROUGH ANOTHER RUN BEFORE BEEFING UP BEYOND THAT. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE HEAVY BURSTS OF RAIN AND STRONG WIND GUSTS IN FAST MOVING SQUALLS...ALONG WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TC TORNADOES. SOME HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER LEVEL JET DIVERGENCE.
HYDROLOGY...GIVEN THE CURRENT FCST TRACK OF ALBERTO...EVENT TOTALS EXPECTED TO REACH 3-5 INCHES IN MANY AREAS. DRY SOIL CONDITIONS AND
LOW LEVELS ON RIVERS/LAKES MEAN THAT EC FL WILL HAVE SOME TIME BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT RUNOFFS BECOME AN ISSUE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE SHORT PERIODS WHEN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEMS MAY NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE HEAVIER RAINFALL...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM PONDING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. THESE WOULD BE HANDLED WITH URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORIES/FLOOD STATEMENTS AS NEEDED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
Alberto: the little storm that could.
208. IKE
yppub...send me an email on here. Im at home. No one will see it but me.
not to beat a dead horse but if you notice st will
tell you every reason why he thinks he is right but never comes back
and explains why he is wrong although he was right about the storm not dying
lefty got the track right but missed on the strength so i say they ended with a push.
but st come back and tell us why you turned out to be wrong
Were it not for ST and Lefty this would have been a boring couple days.
I think they should come up with a new weather forecast reporting format for television news. You know, that old format where they just show you the maps and pass on the information from the NWS, NHC and other experts is, you know, just so boring.

Let's make it more like "Crossfire"...from the right, here's Stormy Cloudtops, and from the left, here's Sonny Driarre...
Randrewl - My last post was not a response to your post, just coincidence and just an attempt at humor...
213. IKE
Buoy 260 miles south of Panama city has sustained winds at 40 mph, gusts to 45-50, from the SSW. Storm is west of there...center of it.
Thanks Ike!
Guy and everyone else....I take no offense over any post. Apologies in advance today if I might rattle anyone's cage. Things will probably get fast and furious in the next 24 and nothing I might say is meant to be malicious or demeaning...even if it might appear that way.
Same here Randrewl, I'm glad to meet someone that has a good sense of humor and proportion about blogging here. I think this blog is great for keeping informed, and for moral support and even meetng some new friends, but I don't get too obsessed about it.

I just wanted let you know my lame attempt at humor wasn't directed towards you...
Cheers!
THnaks to Ike also for the buoy obs, this storm is worth keeping an eye on...I'll feel better when it gets well north of my latitude.
Guy, agreed. We all need to be very tough skinned about now and not get off track or hung up about nonsense. If you can't take it...go somewhere else is how I feel. Let's please keep the sense of humor though....I can't make it without humor!!
I hear you about the humor Randrewl, these storms can be pretty grim for the people in their path.

I don't care what a certain other person said yesterday about people wanting hurricanes in Florida; nobody who has been through one wants another one.

I thought I had suffered very little damage from the FL canes 2 years ago, but I have been repainting my eaves around my roof (the soffit things had gotten blown away), and I keep finding places where the roof is now leaking and the wood is rotting. I can't afford to pay outrageous prices for a new roof, so I need to get everything repaired myself, and it's hurricane season again and another storm is already coming.

If anyone has some good jokes to tell, I'm all ears...
Guy, those problems always show up eventually. So stop painting! Then you won't see it!
222. yppub
IKE I don't know how to send you a private e-mail on here, however, please send me one at semco_semco_semco@yahoo.com.

I will pick it up and reply from my private e-mail.

Thanks so much. I am only a block from the beach and without channel 7 I am lost. WEAR in Pensacola is useless.
Randrewl - Kind of hard to ignore when a little tree takes root and sprouts out of your eaves... lol.
LOL!
Faethe - I also keep ntoicing little cracks in my walls that I don't think were there before...
I left for Francis but stayed for Jeanne, and the house was creaking and shaking all night.
After Wilma I noticed some separation cracks in the ceiling drywall joints in my garage. Lots of creaking going on in that one!
227. IKE
yppub...my email address is... reichorn@panhandle.rr.com
I took a bus trip down 95 through Miami to the NASDAQ pro tennis match this past late March (my wife is in the tennis business, so it was mostly a freebie)...from the raised road riding in the bus, you can look down on the neighborhoods, and I couldn't believe how many people still had blue tarps over their roofs...don't know if that was from Wilma or Katrina...but I think that there must still be a lot of people that are not ready for this hurricane season yet.
Guy...those tarps are from Wilma. Really shredded things there.
Alberto is gaining strength and a Hurricane Warning has been issued...

ROPICAL STORM ALBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006
1500Z MON JUN 12 2006

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO
ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO
BONITA BEACH.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 85.9W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......125NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......200NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 250SE 0SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Seems our little storm is doing it's best to survive.

Hope all is well with everyone!

Good Morning all, looks like Alberto is putting on it's Sunday's Best before landfall.
Feathe - I used to work a lot of construction jobs when I was younger, so I don't mind fixing things myself...it's finding the time to do it that is hard for me. But I've heard from my neighbors exactly what you say, that it has taken a year or more just to get a contractor to come out and fix their roofs. Now I keep hearing the mantra repeated on T.V. and in the newspapers - "You are on our own". Not hard to believe after watching Katrina destroy N.O.

Whatever happened to the sense of community in this country? I think we need to get back to the point where everyone remembers their neighbors and starts chipping in to help rebuild, because our national treasury is looted and the government isn't going to be there to help us anymore. I don't mean that as a political statement; more like a sad acknowledgment of where we are, right now.
Here we go again. Attention all tropical cyclones, blobs and MCSs: this is 2006, not 2005! Time to go back to all the nice little rules we had set up about how you are supposed to behave. Better yet, why don't you all just take a vacation to Mars or somewhere and leave us alone.
I was off looking at the Vis, IR and WV loops, and that big blob of convection is cooling a bit, but the center of it looks to be persistant. Also looks to be moving more ENE right now, I hope that is temporary. Alberto is definitely more organized now, maybe we can hope he speeds up and gets far out to sea before he has the chance to get much stronger.

Good talking to you Randrewl and Feathe, I am off to cut out and prelace more rotten wood under my roof eaves before it rains...
KS - Like I said, my statement is not political, I am not blaming any particular poltical party, I think both share the blame.

Check some of the rants in yesterdays blog before you jump on my mild statement. Were you there to complain then?
Anyways I'm off, will check in later...don't mean to offend, but I guess I cannot please everyone.
Wow am I off base! Sorry KS, I misunderstood, I guess I am the idiot...

Well the idiot will be leaving now, but will return.