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LIttle Change to African Tropical Wave 94L Headed Towards Lesser Antilles

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:58 PM GMT on August 11, 2014

A tropical wave (Invest 94L) that moved off the coast of Africa on Saturday was located near 12°N, 26°W on Monday morning, and could potentially be a tropical storm when it arrives in the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday. Satellite loops show the wave has a modest amount of spin and respectable amount of heavy thunderstorms. Water vapor satellite images and the Saharan Air Layer analysis show that 94L is located in a fairly moist environment, with the dry air coming off or Africa located well to the north and west of the disturbance. Wind shear was a high 25 knots, but the 8 am EDT Monday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would fall to the low range, 5 - 10 knots, by Wednesday. Sea Surface Temperatures beneath 94L were 27°C on Monday, but were predicted to fall to 25.5°C by Wednesday, limiting the potential for development through Wednesday. The wave is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, and by Friday, will move over warmer waters of 27°C, as the storm nears the Lesser Antilles Islands. However, 94L will gain some latitude as it approaches the islands, and move into increasingly dry air to the northwest. These conditions are similar to what Bertha encountered as it approached the islands. If 94L does develop, the odds are that it will be a storm similar to Bertha--struggling against dry air, never reaching hurricane strength in the islands. Arrival in the islands should occur on Saturday, according to the Monday morning runs of the GFS and European models. None of the reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation (GFS, European, and UKMET) develop 94L, but about 1/3 of the 20 members of the GFS model ensemble show development late this week (the GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) None of these ensemble forecasts showed 94L reaching hurricane strength. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 94L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 1. Satellite analysis of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) done at 8 am EDT August 11, 2014, showing Invest 94L lying just south of a large area of dry air that covered much of the Atlantic. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS/NOAA Hurricane Research Division.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Grothar:

Run out of Polident again?

Never annoy Grothar ;)
Quoting 484. hydrus:

The highest I have seen in Florida was 69,000 ft. in the early 90,s. Vince Miller from the TWC mentioned it in his update, and was associated with a T.D.


Thunderstorms in Florida during the rainy season often become amazingly tall, especially along sea breeze collision points. The difference is that most of the time we don't have the dynamics for any severe weather, so only the tallest thunderstorms produce isolated severe weather. However, as I'm sure most are aware of, dynamics enhance a thunderstorm cell's capability.

I've experienced thunderstorms here many times that look and feel worse than thunderstorms along cold fronts during significant severe events. One of the reasons to explain this, is that a thunderstorm in a severe outbreak may have to only reach 35,000 ft to produce severe weather, which is still strong, but we can have 40-50,000 ft thunderstorms that may most of the time produce sub-severe weather, small hail and gusty winds of 40-50 mph, or brief pulse severe weather, but not larger amounts of reports. The intensity of their rain and the extreme lightning often combine with such thunderstorms to produce what feels like severe weather, but isn't.

Although, after living here long enough, all those little isolated events eventually add up and most people experience a local severe event. I see locally severe thunderstorm conditions at my places at least once or twice a year. I've seen significant damage only from a tropical events though because they were of greater duration. When I mean significant I mean visually down trees and building damage that's obvious.

Personally, I prefer the frequent thunderstorms that are fun to watch, but I never have to worry about violent long tracked super cells producing baseball size hail and wedge tornadoes ;)

504. FOREX
Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





My eyes are bad, which wave or entity are wee observing? What is it that it is showing? Thanks.
94L is moving relatively slowly at 15 mph instead of 20+ mph. How much will that help?
Quoting 485. Grothar:



Thanks Bappit. Nice to see somebody say something nice than always criticize. But there's always one in the crowd.


People criticize constantly on WU???..

well I never!!

Quoting 499. washingtonian115:

I've about lost all hope in this basin I think about half of the blog has.Like I said earlier it could have potential down the road and the NHC still has interest.But since 2011 onward these things don't happen.
Yea.
Quoting 482. bappit:


Cool site. Brohavwx.com Thanks!

And the one behind its a whopper too...
Does anyone have a Caribbean trades wind forecast website or something similar? Will be interesting to see how high they are once 94L enters the Caribbean.
Quoting 446. hydrus:

We had a big soaker here too..3.00 in in two days..Half a foot the past week.


Geeze man, you've had more rain than the monthly average in a week, that's like us getting 10-12 inches in a week. It happens, but not very often.
Quoting 498. hydrus:

Everything.?...What did you have for dinner tonight...?... Mr. Grothar please, if you will....


Low-fat cottage cheese with pears on lettuce. Cucumber and onion salad. One piece of baked chicken.
Hurricane models picking it up to some degree, heck up to almost CAT2 in the Bahama's in the intensity models. However the population of the bigger models picking it up on the SFWMD page are slim pickins'. Got a while to watch this one, maybe more will jump on board. Being optimistic here.
My concern for this season is the SW Atlantic, Northwest Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico. The way conditions are set-up and trends with the first two storms you really do not want anything in those areas especially this year.
Quoting 511. Grothar:



Low-fat cottage cheese with pears on lettuce. Cucumber and onion salad. One piece of baked chicken.


Cottage cheese on lettuce? What the heck is that? You old people sure do eat weird things.
ASCAT 94L
Quoting 512. ProgressivePulse:

Hurricane models picking it up to some degree, heck up to almost CAT2 in the Bahama's in the intensity models. However the population of the bigger models picking it up on the SFWMD page are slim pickins'. Got a while to watch this one, maybe more will jump on board. Being optimistic here.

I am not surprised at 94L's lack of development, I was not expecting much because of the conditions ahead. The Southwest Atlantic has relatively lower shear and high ssts. It is not by any coincidence the NHC wrote what they did in the 8pm outlook.
Quoting 503. Jedkins01:



Thunderstorms in Florida during the rainy season often become amazingly tall, especially along sea breeze collision points. The difference is that most of the time we don't have the dynamics for any severe weather, so only the tallest thunderstorms produce isolated severe weather. However, as I'm sure most are aware of, dynamics enhance a thunderstorm cell's capability.

I've experienced thunderstorms here many times that look and feel worse than thunderstorms along cold fronts during significant severe events. One of the reasons to explain this, is that a thunderstorm in a severe outbreak may have to only reach 35,000 ft to produce severe weather, which is still strong, but we can have 40-50,000 ft thunderstorms that may most of the time produce sub-severe weather, small hail and gusty winds of 40-50 mph, or brief pulse severe weather, but not larger amounts of reports. The intensity of their rain and the extreme lightning often combine with such thunderstorms to produce what feels like severe weather, but isn't.

Although, after living here long enough, all those little isolated events eventually add up and most people experience a local severe event. I see locally severe thunderstorm conditions at my places at least once or twice a year. I've seen significant damage only from a tropical events though because they were of greater duration. When I mean significant I mean visually down trees and building damage that's obvious.
The worst storms ( by far ) in Florida I witnessed were in the late 70,s and early 80,s..Man do I wish I had a video camera then...The lightening in one storm actually had color to it. Purple , orange, blue, and pink. and it was to this day the most intense lightening I ever saw. Came home from school ( in Bonita Springs at the time ) up to Fort Myers every billboard had damage or was flattened. The marina I lived at was a disaster. Boats sunk in there slips, floating dock in pieces thrown on to the marina grounds. Yachts, speed boats, fishing boats all thrown around like little toys. Finally got to our dock with huge chunks torn out of it. Our 1951 Chris*Craft ( built like a wooden tank for all practical purposes ) suffered extensive damage to the deck and stanchions. Lost one bit and a cleat, very hard thing to do on an old chris. Uncles had an Egg Harbor sports fisherman with heavy damage. It was sad to see some lost everything in less than an hour. It was a freak storm and no one was ready.
Quoting 510. Jedkins01:



Geeze man, you've had more rain than the monthly average in a week, that's like us getting 10-12 inches in a week. It happens, but not very often.


Yea, and he lives just to the southwest of me. I've had 1.4" in the last few days, the first rains in like three weeks. First decent rain since even longer.
Quoting 514. Astrometeor:



Cottage cheese on lettuce? What the heck is that? You old people sure do eat weird things.


It's the pears that make the magic. I've had it, it's great.
Quoting 505. DonnieBwkGA:

94L is moving relatively slowly at 15 mph instead of 20+ mph. How much will that help?


I wouldn't look for any type of development until after Wednesday.
Quoting 509. Envoirment:

Does anyone have a Caribbean trades wind forecast website or something similar? Will be interesting to see how high they are once 94L enters the Caribbean.


Here
Quoting 515. Skyepony:

ASCAT 94L



Did it get it this time?
The way I see it 94L is just getting started
Quoting 504. FOREX:



My eyes are bad, which wave or entity are wee observing? What is it that it is showing? Thanks.

94l
it shows wind barb speed and direction its waving now

Quoting 506. ncstorm:



People criticize constantly on WU???..

well I never!!




Really, it's true. You never noticed? :)
Sad to see that Robin Williams took his life today battling severe depression.
Evening all. Quiet on the Eastern front huh?

If 94 is ever to develop, I wouldn't expect much before 50W, but even that seems somewhat unlikely at this point.
Quoting Envoirment:
Still making good progress on clearing the dry air.

Before:



After:

I'm not a big fan of that graphic. It makes the dry air look much more pervasive than it really is. Water vapor is a much better indicator of the conditions a storm really faces. 94L has a slug of dry air still ahead and a much larger slug moving in from the N. If it continues to suck that dry air while it's over marginal SST's it's going to have a tough time maintaining convection.


This has probably been posted several times but hey, it's new to me.
Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."
Still seeing spin to 94L though NHC isn't showing it much respect.
Quoting 524. Grothar:



Did it get it this time?

No..got another look at the west side.
Keep an eye on 94L I give it a 50% chance of development, conditions will get better as it approaches the islands.
Quoting 511. Grothar:



Low-fat cottage cheese with pears on lettuce. Cucumber and onion salad. One piece of baked chicken.
Good eating..Your body will thank you..Two peanut butter on wheat, whey protein shake with all the BCAA,s..One yogurt..I eat healthy too..:)
537. FOREX
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."
Still seeing spin to 94L though NHC isn't showing it much respect.

I see you
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."


Yes I do. It's happening to me too. Perhaps just a temporary thing?
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."
Still seeing spin to 94L though NHC isn't showing it much respect.



My avatar disappeared also. Tomorrow it will probably be back.
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."
Still seeing spin to 94L though NHC isn't showing it much respect.


It happens to me sometimes too, but I see your avatar. Just a glitch.
94L should change little for the next couple of days. I'd probably start watching for development as it nears 50W.
Quoting 533. Chicklit:

Do you guys see my avatar/picture?
It's telling me to "click here and add your portrait."
Still seeing spin to 94L though NHC isn't showing it much respect.



Yes, I see it and you are still cute. I keep getting knocked off the site. Something must be wrong. The message is Cannot connect with Gateway.
542. FOREX
Quoting 541. Grothar:



Yes, I see it and you are still cute. I keep getting knocked off the site. Something must be wrong. The message is Cannot connect with Gateway.
same here.
Quoting 536. hydrus:

Good eating..Your body will thank you..Two peanut butter on wheat, whey protein shake with all the BCAA,s..One yogurt..I eat healthy too..:)


I think my family is just trying to pickle me so I will stay around longer.

Quoting 541. Grothar:



Yes, I see it and you are still cute. I keep getting knocked off the site. Something must be wrong. The message is Cannot connect with Gateway.


Server is ingesting dry air...Bordering on becoming a junk server if it doesn't pull its act together.
546. txjac
Quoting 511. Grothar:



Low-fat cottage cheese with pears on lettuce. Cucumber and onion salad. One piece of baked chicken.


I love Mrs Grothar more and more when I read posts like this from you ...lol
So this is interesting

548. FOREX
Quoting 544. Grothar:


hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm
Quoting 518. hydrus:

The worst storms ( by far ) in Florida I witnessed were in the late 70,s and early 80,s..Man do I wish I had a video camera then...The lightening in one storm actually had color to it. Purple , orange, blue, and pink. and it was to this day the most intense lightening I ever saw. Came home from school ( in Bonita Springs at the time ) up to Fort Myers every billboard had damage or was flattened. The marina I lived at was a disaster. Boats sunk in there slips, floating dock in pieces thrown on to the marina grounds. Yachts, speed boats, fishing boats all thrown around like little toys. Finally got to our dock with huge chunks torn out of it. Our 1951 Chris*Craft ( built like a wooden tank for all practical purposes ) suffered extensive damage to the deck and stanchions. Lost one bit and a cleat, very hard thing to do on an old chris. Uncles had an Egg Harbor sports fisherman with heavy damage. It was sad to see some lost everything in less than an hour. It was a freak storm and no one was ready.


That's crazy, sounds like hurricane force winds over a large area. We had some terrible thunderstorms here the last couple summer and ridiculous amounts of rain. This year has been more tame in the rain and strong thunderstorm department thanks to this weird endless trough bringing drier than average conditions to the west side of the state and above average over the eastern side of the state.

Its not like we haven't had any, we have still had some fun thunderstorms and heavy downpours, but we haven't had any major rain events or epic type thunderstorm days yet.

Quoting 511. Grothar:



Low-fat cottage cheese with pears on lettuce. Cucumber and onion salad. One piece of baked chicken.
That's good food Grothar. Eating healthy is the way to go.
Quoting 545. StormJunkie:



Server is ingesting dry air...Bordering on becoming a junk server if it doesn't pull its act together.


Your reaching Sj... How about turning off the water enough is enough.
Quoting 548. FOREX:

hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm


Two out of the six seem reasonable.
Quoting 547. Stormchaser2007:

So this is interesting




Yes, so is this which I just posted.

554. FOREX
Quoting 552. StormJunkie:



Two out of the six seem reasonable.
Well if Ships bring it to a cane in 96 hours and the NHC has it at 20 percent, something ain't right.
Quoting 551. rescueguy:



Your reaching Sj... How about turning off the water enough is enough.



lol rg. Not much to keep one occupied. It's either cottage cheese and pears, or the desolate Atl. Thankfully, college football is just around the corner.
Quoting 550. GTstormChaserCaleb:

That's good food Grothar. Eating healthy is the way to go.


I'd give anything for a pizza with anchovies.
Quoting 547. Stormchaser2007:

So this is interesting




I wouldn't believe those if I were you. Keep in mind were nearing the middle of the Cape Verde season and most statistical models (all the ones that are showing Cat 2 or above) expect a lot of systems in that area to intensify. If you want further proof of my statement, just look how the AVN (GFS) is so much lower than the others. It's a dynamical model. I don't expect this to be as strong as these statistical models are showing.
Quoting 556. Grothar:



I'd give anything for a pizza with anchovies.
Is this the Food Channel blog?
559. FOREX
Quoting 555. StormJunkie:



lol rg. Not much to keep one occupied. It's either cottage cheese and pears, or the desolate Atl. Thankfully, college football is just around the corner.
Who is your team Stormjunkie? My daughter attends Boise State, so I'm a blue turf guy of course.
Have a peaceful night everyone. See you all tomorrow.
94L sure has that look ....


Click to embiggen.
Quoting 556. Grothar:



I'd give anything for a pizza with anchovies.


I always wondered who eats anchovies. Now I know. I don't wanna grow old! :(

Um. Weather. Saw a few nice thunderheads today.
Everyone here on the blog needs a cat5 to watch.Boring is killing us.
Quoting 563. Astrometeor:



I always wondered who eats anchovies. Now I know. I don't wanna grow old! :(

Um. Weather. Saw a few nice thunderheads today.


It's an acquired taste. Just like good manners. :):)
Quoting 554. FOREX:

Well if Ships bring it to a cane in 96 hours and the NHC has it at 20 percent, something ain't right.


Well something probably isn't right with the Ships model and I'd bet NHC >>>>>>>> Ships.
Quoting 562. SavannahStorm:



Click to embiggen.


That is deserving of a lol.
That blue turf always threw me for a loop forex. Gamecocks here...SEC strong, and until Spurrier came along...Our football team was pretty much rubbish. There was that one year under Morrison where we had it all in sight. The big prize...and then lost to Navy.
Just imagine the calling of bust season and such at this time in 92.....
Quoting 495. FOREX:

hi, what's your thoughts on the 94L situation and its future???
It's doing good and should develop very soon.
571. FOREX
Quoting 568. StormJunkie:

That blue turf always threw me for a loop forex. Gamecocks here...SEC strong, and until Spurrier came along...Our football team was pretty much rubbish. There was that one year under Morrison where we had it all in sight. The big prize...and then lost to Navy.
I always enjoy watching when the Gamecocks are playing. They always seem to have a quality team and love the pre-game atmosphere you guys have.
LLC.......where?...
Quoting 570. Climate175:

It's doing good and should develop very soon.


Good? I don't know, looks a bit like .....

Quoting 565. Grothar:



It's an acquired taste. Just like good manners. :):)
That model you showed that showed Bertha becoming a Hurricane, does it only initialize when there is a Tropical Storm? COMPAS model I think I recall if that even is the name.
Quoting 565. Grothar:



Just like good manners. :):)


:(

I was wondering how many I could get off before you'd bet me back.
Quoting 573. StormJunkie:



Good? I don't know, looks a bit like .....


I have been patient with this storm this day one and my opinion is not changing.
As fans, we've been through hell and high water over the years Forex...but were always loyal and show up in numbers. Even for those occasional 1-11 seasons.

00z GFS 24hrs out.

Quoting 573. StormJunkie:



Good? I don't know, looks a bit like .....



Trash?

I'll start running now.
Quoting 408. Jedkins01:

Detroit just had their second wettest day on record thanks to a slow moving low pressure system and well above normal moisture levels near 2.00 inch PW.

There is widespread flooding in the city, I have family living there that have some street flooding.
I picked up 6.25" of rain today from this system. The flooding in my neighborhood was severe with water being over 2 feet high in spots. I cleared out the storm drains and that has helped reduce the flooding on my block. All the basements are flooded with some people having a total loss. Never seen anything like this. I'll have some pictures later.
Quoting 574. Climate175:

That model you showed that showed Bertha becoming a Hurricane, does it only initialize when there is a Tropical Storm? COMPAS model I think I recall if that even is the name.


It is also what I used for Arthur. It tracks Invests and storms. For some reason, it does not have 94L running. I really don't know why, but I don't expect anything developing until after Wednesday. I will let you know.
581. FOREX
Quoting 576. Climate175:

I have been patient with this storm this day one and my opinion is not changing.
Will be interesting to see what it looks like in 24 hours.
Quoting 575. Astrometeor:



:(

I was wondering how many I could get off before you'd bet me back.


If you're going to have a battle of wits, you have to bring at least one wit with ya!!!

Quoting 549. Jedkins01:



That's crazy, sounds like hurricane force winds over a large area. We had some terrible thunderstorms here the last couple summer and ridiculous amounts of rain. This year has been more tame in the rain and strong thunderstorm department thanks to this weird endless trough bringing drier than average conditions to the west side of the state and above average over the eastern side of the state.

Its not like we haven't had any, we have still had some fun thunderstorms and heavy downpours, but we haven't had any major rain events or epic type thunderstorm days yet.




We've had some pretty intense thunderstorms this summer here in Orlando, with rainfall amounts approx average (below average so far in August though). No epic thunderstorms lasting hours or 3" plus rainfall amounts. Really, where I've been at any given time, I have not seen a torrential downpour last more 15-20 minutes this whole summer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Trash?

I'll start running now.

couldnt help it could u? -_-
Quoting 582. Grothar:



If you're going to have a battle of wits, you have to bring at least one wit with ya!!!




That depends on if it is my wit vs your wit; or my wits vs your wits. So might have to bring at least two depending on the dual of your choosing.
48hrs.
60 hrs.
Quoting 566. boltdwright:



Well something probably isn't right with the Ships model and I'd bet NHC >>>>>>>> Ships.


I agree. SHIPS has one of the higher average intensity error for 94L after 24hrs.. 7.3kts.

AVNO is in the lead..
AVNO 1.0 1.0

These days it seems you have to have a disclaimer on every post. There are many models that run these. This one happens to be the NCEP only. It simply shows a percentage of possibility of development. Believe it or not, they are not always correct.

Quoting 581. FOREX:

Will be interesting to see what it looks like in 24 hours.

Euro still saying its a no-go...
78 hrs, keep note of the wave behind trying to develop a low, the one coming off Africa now, even though weak now, the trend is your friend.
Quoting 589. Grothar:

These days it seems you have to have a disclaimer on every post. There are many models that run these. This one happens to be the NCEP only. It simply shows a percentage of possibility of development. Believe it or not, they are not always correct.




What, you don't think a category 4 landfall at Tampa is good call at this point?
Quoting 582. Grothar:



If you're going to have a battle of wits, you have to bring at least one wit with ya!!!




Hey, a battle of wits is about all you can do. If we do a real battle, I'm afraid I might mortally wound you with nary a touch.
Quoting 590. Kowaliga:


Euro still saying its a no-go...


GFS as well...And all the global/dynamical models. If there were one or two showing even slight development; then it would be more beliveable...But when all of them say "nada"...It is getting increasingly hard to believe that 94 will amount to anything more than ....

Quoting Grothar:


Yes, so is this which I just posted.

We can always count on the LGEM to find a cat 3 in a mass of disorganized thunderstorms...
596. JLPR2
Hmm...


Well this is a mess.
When you need a red circle to identify where the invest is it means it's in trouble
597. JLPR2
Quoting 595. sar2401:

We can always count on the LGEM to find a cat 3 in a mass of disorganized thunderstorms...


Eh? Where's that? XD
Quoting 594. StormJunkie:



GFS as well...And all the global/dynamical models. If there were one or two showing even slight development; then it would be more beliveable...But when all of them say "nada"...It is getting increasingly hard to believe that 94 will amount to anything more than ....



I forgot to add...Euro has it making it to S FL as a weak open wave.......now there's something you can hang your hat on! :-D
Quoting 595. sar2401:

We can always count on the LGEM to find a cat 3 in a mass of disorganized thunderstorms...

The LGEM is the best intensity model we've got. The issue is that people look at it when invests are first designated when it's only supposed to be used after a tropical cyclone has been designated.
Quoting 598. Kowaliga:


I forgot to add...Euro has it making it to S FL as a weak open wave.......now there's something you can hang your hat on! :-D


The GFS is trying to break out the defibrillator at 87 hrs as it approaches the islands...

Quoting 593. Astrometeor:



Hey, a battle of wits is about all you can do. If we do a real battle, I'm afraid I might mortally wound you with nary a touch.
Careful astro ;)
Quoting 600. StormJunkie:



The GFS is trying to break out the defibrillator at 87 hrs as it approaches the islands...




Yup, makes Bertha look like an Andrew. (lol)
604. FOREX
Well, I don't think 94L will develop, ever. I'll be watching the next few waves though.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The LGEM is the best intensity model we've got. The issue is that people look at it when invests are for designated, when it's only supposed to be used after a tropical cyclone has been designated.
Yeah, that's kind of what I meant. It gets all psychotic when it looks at a mass of disorganized thunderstorms.
606. FOREX
Quoting 604. FOREX:

Well, I don't think 94L will develop, ever. I'll be watching the next few waves though.
Gfs kills it this run. Never makes it to the islands.
Quoting 602. DonnieBwkGA:

Careful astro ;)
Shush Donnie.
Quoting 578. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Trash?

I'll start running now.
Well You never know it might very well develop. :P Ex Bertha.
This really has been a weird season so far. A surprise East Coast hurricane on the 4th of July, active Cape Verde storms, extremely unfavorable conditions much of the time in the MDR, the most disorganized hurricane classified ever, and an alleged El Nino that hasn't materlalized.
Quoting JLPR2:
Hmm...


Well this is a mess.
When you need a red circle to identify where the invest is it means it's in trouble
It's even worse when three people disagree with you.
Quoting FOREX:
Gfs kills it this run. Never makes it to the islands.
Do you enjoy pain, or what?
Quoting 604. FOREX:

Well, I don't think 94L will develop, ever. I'll be watching the next few waves though.


Regardless of whether it is a trashy, rubbish wave or not...Those that really take an interest in "The Season" will watch it none the less.

That said, I concur. It is unlikely to develop. Which is pretty much what the consensus has been saying ever since this "impressive" wave emerged. The globals will flip flop between development and not when something has at least a chance of making it. The only thing 94 ever had was a good Sat presentation as it exited the African coast. It has never had much model support. Yet there was plenty of "This one is going to get interesting" mindset.
We really don't have a clue of what's going to happen next.

LIke I said before, can you conceive what it must have been like to be sitting here close to mid-August with no named storms at all, I would imagine that a Category 5 hitting South Florida was low on the list in many people's minds.

I guess it just boils down to watching things unfold as they happen. Who would have thought the most costly hurricane to hit the US was partly formed by a dissipating TD that scraped its way through the central Atlantic.

Lot of times these things pop up with not much model support. Claudette, etc..
94L
Yesterday we had a little storm in Greater Carrollwood, Tampa FL. I want to share the video with you.

Hmm , I don't see the video.

How can I post a video here ?










Quoting 613. opal92nwf:

We really don't have a clue of what's going to happen next.


But we do. The models are by no means perfect. Yet they are a far, far cry from the chaos of yesteryear. Katrina was the most recent model "fail" I can recall. Even then, they had it down three days out. Zero global support for 94 says a whole lot imo.
A couple pictures I got of the flooding in Metro Detroit (Berkley, MI).





Quoting 616. StormJunkie:



But we do. The models are by no means perfect. Yet they are a far, far cry from the chaos of yesteryear. Katrina was the most recent model "fail" I can recall. Even then, they had it down three days out. Zero global support for 94 says a whole lot imo.

A trained meteorologist could draw a line on a map and it would probably be more accurate than some models.

They are better for a situation that is already happening. We've had plenty short notice pop-ups in the past several years.

To put in bluntly in what I meant. No one knows if we will get an Andrew in the next 2 weeks or a little less.
Quoting 614. Skyepony:

94L


It's............................................. ........there
620. flsky
Where is this??
Quoting 617. wxchaser97:

A couple pictures I got of the flooding in my area.






Quoting 618. opal92nwf:


A trained meteorologist could draw a line on a map and it would probably be more accurate than some models.

They are better for a situation that is already happening. We've had plenty short notice pop-ups in the past several years.


Short notice pop ups? I would argue that most of those were "hinted" at by the globals. Yes, there will be the occasional Humberto which blows the intensity forecast in a short time frame. With these CV waves, we aren't talking about short time frames. There is at least a little interest in better potential in the longer term so that seems more viable to me then 94 suddenly becoming any sort of real, long lived system.

Night all.

And just to add once more...The models are a far cry from 1992. Technology has evolved ten fold. Not reasonable to compare model performance 20 years ago with model performance today. That is like comparing your HD flat screen tv and HD signal with a tube TV trying to get Fox using tin foil.
Quoting 620. flsky:

Where is this??

Berkley, MI, a suburb of Detroit.
The flooding got a little worse than after I took the pictures, but my phone's battery died so I couldn't take anymore pictures. My family did get pictures after mine so I'll look to see if they are any good.
624. flsky
I was in Pensacola about a month ago after the heavy rains and flooding. People were still talking about Ivan.

Quoting 523. Climate175:


Quoting 613. opal92nwf:

We really don't have a clue of what's going to happen next.

LIke I said before, can you conceive what it must have been like to be sitting here close to mid-August with no named storms at all, I would imagine that a Category 5 hitting South Florida was low on the list in many people's minds.

I guess it just boils down to watching things unfold as they happen. Who would have thought the most costly hurricane to hit the US was partly formed by a dissipating TD that scraped its way through the central Atlantic.

Lot of times these things pop up with not much model support. Claudette, etc..
The jet stream moved. I am looking due south. That swirl by Cuba could develop. Probably nothing, but look away and it will. I will never forget TS Bob. It started just off shore out of nowhere. I predicted it, but I thought I was crazy for contradicting the local weathermen. It was so hot and humid for so long with no steering patterns whatsoever. I noticed a small patch of thunderstorms on the radar before I went to school. The next day I skipped school to surf 13 ft waves.
627. flsky
Interesting article to read if you've forgotten just what a strong hurricane can do. If you get excited when a hurricane targets a populated area, keep this in mind.

Link
We really don't have a clew of what's going to happen next.

lovely words...
Good Morning folks. Look at the huge wave over Africa. If 94L clears that Sal good that wave can seriously be organized quickly in the Atlantic


invest 94L IS now moving west at 25 mph!! its on the move now!
632. FOREX
I give 94L a 0% chance for development through 14 days.
heres another look at the wave it looks even bigger on this satellite pic
Quoting 624. flsky:

I was in Pensacola about a month ago after the heavy rains and flooding. People were still talking about Ivan.




I remember the eye wall, probably won't ever forget it. I remember thinking at 11PM (We lost power at 8:00, right about the time hurricane force winds set in) that we had to be in the eye wall, that it would begin to let up before too long. By midnight it was absolutely roaring, roof was starting to peel away, water running down the walls and dripping from the ceiling, upstairs windows blew out. The storm surge missed us by just a couple of blocks, but that's because we were sittin' pretty at 17 feet above sea level, ha! Ivan was one Hell of a storm at the coast, and the one that's set the bar for the western FL panhandle.
This is a great video, it's amazing how the pilot describes flying into Hurricane Edith. Dr Masters is young too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KWVMcLQioQs
636. FOREX
I know this has not been designated by Grothar, but the blob out in front of 94L seems to have some spin to it. Can anyone confirm that?
Looking at 94L
It's not looking to bad
LLC seems to be further S than the BEST track data closer to 11N
Convection is starting to increase and starting to get organised it's starting to spin with the system

Vort max at 850,700,500mb was decoupled and really broad
Now they have somewhat consolidated and became somewhat concentrated


I hope we get that satellite swap to GOES-EAST Tropical Atlantic on the floater soon
So we can get a clearer picture
Quoting FOREX:
I know this has not been designated by Grothar, but the blob out in front of 94L seems to have some spin to it. Can anyone confirm that?

Just your bog standard monsoon trof circulation


I am watching this tropical wave hit the water now its holding all it t.storms with it
Quoting 639. hurricanes2018:



I am watching this tropical wave hit the water now its holding all it t.storms with it
maybe a yellow x soon for the next tropical wave on water now!
This date in history 12th August 1970 tropical storm Dorothy claimed 50 lives in the island of Martinique. Most of the fatalities were through drowning around the capital Fort De France.
Looks like if you want tropical activity this year,move to Hawaii ,another 2-storms to come in from the east in a week per GFS
most characters on this blog go on and on about how slow it was last yr. hold on now. for cyclones yes. not for invest and wannabe invest. strange how it works out.
gfs is playing with 94 near the yucatan almost closes it off
Good morning.

For being in the peak weeks of the season (August 28) to have only a weak TD on the GFS map is not a good sign for the North Atlantic to have plenty of activity in that period.

we will get invest 95L soon

94L rip



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila
Quoting 647. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

For being in the peak weeks of the season (August 28) to have only a weak TD on the GFS map is not a good sign for the North Atlantic to have plenty of activity in that period.



And you are looking at 384 hours out that is the first mistake.
Quoting 651. hurricanes2018:


maybe invest 95L AND invest 96L down the ROAD
With this type of convergent pattern in place I would expect totals much higher than what is being forecast by the HPC across C & N FL. Already this morning 2" to 3" of rain have already fallen around Ocala on top of heavy rain yesterday.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

goodbye to invest 94L!!! HAHAHA
Quoting 649. Tazmanian:

94L rip



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

I LOVE IT..
Quoting 654. hurricanes2018:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

goodbye to invest 94L!!! HAHAHA


Poof it goes! Just so everyone knows I called 5 to 7 named storms this and it looks like I have a good shot at staying with in those numbers.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
With this type of convergent pattern in place I would expect totals much higher than what is being forecast by the HPC across C & N FL. Already this morning 2" to 3" of rain have already fallen around Ocala on top of heavy rain yesterday.




I agree Scott, 2-3" is what the HPC is expecting across C-NFL but we know there will be locally heavier amounts. Looks to be a wet day. Good for the grass!
0Z Euro shows heavy rain across C FL all day on Friday & Saturday due to a stalled cold front yes that's right a cold front!

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Poof it goes! Just so everyone knows I called 5 to 7 named storms this and it looks like I have a good shot at staying with in those numbers.



Poof? We are in the beginning of August, the peak season is still 4 weeks away and the African wave train is just starting to rev its engines. Easy now bubba, no way we get 5-7. I would agree if you said 7-11 but you are too low.
A cold front stalling across C FL with a strong low level convergent SW FL at the surface tapping upper 80 SST's from the Gulf spells a set up from excessive rains across our area.

Quoting Tazmanian:
94L rip



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with with a westward-moving broad area
of low pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cape
Verde Islands has diminished. Environmental conditions are not
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Avila's really the best, rofl. I love how simply and matter-of-factually he wrote that. 94L's done, at least for the next seven days.
Quoting 643. LargoFl:




Seems to me that if 94 can somehow make it to TS status in 48 hours, it has a chance of being our 3rd 2014 Atlantic hurricane. Let's see just how much of a fight this little puppy's got.
Not only does the CFS show El-Nino coming but it also shows the values holding steady or even increasing some again April on of 2015. Not a good sign for the 2015 Hurricane Season either if the CFS is correct.

00z ECMWF shows zero development in the tropical Atlantic for the next 10 days.
The EPAC continues very active and it looks like Hawaii may be dealing with more threats.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE AUG 12 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
located a few hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Shower activity has not become any better organized since
yesterday, but environmental conditions remain conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form within the
next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. A broad area of disturbed weather is centered about 1500 miles east-
southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii. Development of this system,
if any, should be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
If you look at the CFS precip anomalies for September you will see very dry conditions across the Caribbean which would suggest that convection will be very limited across the Caribbean during the Peak of hurricane season.

Quoting 664. CybrTeddy:

00z ECMWF shows zero development in the tropical Atlantic for the next 10 days.
that's awful. GFS doesn't do much either. amazes me how inactive the models show the tropical atlantic..... not an el nino year for the 2nd year too.... at a loss of words
October not much better across the Caribbean but gives the idea that we could see atleast some action in the Caribbean once October comes around.

Quoting 667. wunderweatherman123:

that's awful. GFS doesn't do much either. amazes me how inactive the models show the tropical atlantic..... not an el nino year for the 2nd year too.... at a loss of words


Expect a ramp up toward El-Nino over the next 3 monts.

Quoting 650. sporteguy03:


And you are looking at 384 hours out that is the first mistake.


What I meant was that in past years you saw many TC's on the GFS in the peak weeks but in 2014 only one so far.
This picture speaks a 1000 words in regards to the Pacific vrs Atlantic. Atlantic may just be shut down for business for quite sometime to come.

Looks like the Hurricane Center was snake bit by the GFS on 94l .Will it happen again?
Quoting 671. StormTrackerScott:

This picture speaks a 1000 words in regards to the Pacific vrs Atlantic. Atlantic may just be shut down for business for quite sometime to come.


it already has been shut down without an el nino.... something really wrong going on in the atlantic. maybe the el nino will be a sign of fresh air for the tropics. maybe shake things up. I can't explain the lack of ANYTHING the models show in late august. that's scary
Euro shows the Atlantic with not very ideal conditions for tropical storm formation during the peak of hurricane season and beyond.

Quoting 673. wunderweatherman123:

it already has been shut down without an el nino.... something really wrong going on in the atlantic. maybe the el nino will be a sign of fresh air for the tropics. maybe shake things up. I can't explain the lack of ANYTHING the models show in late august. that's scary


Only problem is we could have a 2 year El-Nino event across the Pacific as some of the models are hinting at this. Something to watch as we head toward the end of the year.
MDR = massively dry region
I somewhat think it's irrelevant that the models generally don't show any long-range development. Showing such could indicate a favorable Atlantic, but it could just as easily be a ghost storm that would've been picked up regardless.

Also, it's not uncommon for the models to not show development with a disturbance at first, only to do so when that disturbance begins consolidating. Not that there's anything like that now, but I'm just saying.
Quoting 666. StormTrackerScott:

If you look at the CFS precip anomalies for September you will see very dry conditions across the Caribbean which would suggest that convection will be very limited across the Caribbean during the Peak of hurricane season.


Oh God my poor country in all that brown. My country is in emergency status right now.
Quoting 664. CybrTeddy:

00z ECMWF shows zero development in the tropical Atlantic for the next 10 days.
I am worried we are not going to make to Isaias this year. want to see the storm that will have that name.
Quoting 673. wunderweatherman123:

it already has been shut down without an el nino.... something really wrong going on in the atlantic. maybe the el nino will be a sign of fresh air for the tropics. maybe shake things up. I can't explain the lack of ANYTHING the models show in late august. that's scary
El Niño might bring vertical instability up in the Atlantic but I am not sure if its been proved it can.
Quoting 624. flsky:

I was in Pensacola about a month ago after the heavy rains and flooding. People were still talking about Ivan.


Quoting 634. GBguy88:



I remember the eye wall, probably won't ever forget it. I remember thinking at 11PM (We lost power at 8:00, right about the time hurricane force winds set in) that we had to be in the eye wall, that it would begin to let up before too long. By midnight it was absolutely roaring, roof was starting to peel away, water running down the walls and dripping from the ceiling, upstairs windows blew out. The storm surge missed us by just a couple of blocks, but that's because we were sittin' pretty at 17 feet above sea level, ha! Ivan was one Hell of a storm at the coast, and the one that's set the bar for the western FL panhandle.


Yes, Ivan caused unbelievable damage!

At 4PM it appeared that Ivan might come ashore near Mobile, AL, or Pascagoula, MS, but the hurricane swung to the NNE in the final hours, just before landfall. Pensacola, FL, and the surrounding area wound up being in Ivan's unfortunate devastating NE quadrant. It was roaring on all sides of the building where I was staying. Same thing happened here, windows blowing in, severe roof damage. Waking up the next morning, was a shocker! Thousands of huge trees down on homes ... and in the streets everywhere. Walls and bricks blown off some buildings, and whole roofs off several homes and businesses. You are right, Ivan the Terrible definitely set the bar for hurricanes in NW Florida, and the area east of Mobile Bay, AL. The aftermath was also terrible, and seemed to last forever!
681. FOREX
Quoting 662. LongIslandBeaches:



Seems to me that if 94 can somehow make it to TS status in 48 hours, it has a chance of being our 3rd 2014 Atlantic hurricane. Let's see just how much of a fight this little puppy's got.
this chart only valid with a designated tropical storm.

Quoting 679. allancalderini:

El Niño might bring vertical instability up in the Atlantic but I am not sure if its been proved it can.
It hasn't. No idea why that idea keeps being proposed.
Quoting 679. allancalderini:

I am worried we are not going to make to Isaias this year. want to see the storm that will have that name. El Niño might bring vertical instability up in the Atlantic but I am not sure if its been proved it can.
ill take vertical instability and a 2009 like season next year just so we can get rid of this trend we have been in
Quoting 677. KoritheMan:

I somewhat think it's irrelevant that the models generally don't show any long-range development. Showing such could indicate a favorable Atlantic, but it could just as easily be a ghost storm that would've been picked up regardless.

Also, it's not uncommon for the models to not show development with a disturbance at first, only to do so when that disturbance begins consolidating. Not that there's anything like that now, but I'm just saying.


The problem is there's no convection. Take El-Nino aside because this is even abnormal during El-Nino years. Almost in the Peak of hurricane season and there is hardly any thunderstorms across the MDR. Makes no sense to me.



685. FOREX
Quoting 661. CybrTeddy:



Avila's really the best, rofl. I love how simply and matter-of-factually he wrote that. 94L's done, at least for the next seven days.
it is done. been ragged and void for two days with no hope in sight.
Quoting 677. KoritheMan:

I somewhat think it's irrelevant that the models generally don't show any long-range development. Showing such could indicate a favorable Atlantic, but it could just as easily be a ghost storm that would've been picked up regardless.

Also, it's not uncommon for the models to not show development with a disturbance at first, only to do so when that disturbance begins consolidating. Not that there's anything like that now, but I'm just saying.
kori, so far the models have been dead on when they had something developing before dropping it. I have a good amount of confidence in them in the short range. 7 days out. what's extremely disappoint is even in the most unfavorable years, they would hint at development. maybe the track was wrong and in most cases it was but at least we expected something to get going
I believe the large t-waves crossing Africa are at least partially responsible for pulling Saharan dust into the Atlantic.
Quoting 684. StormTrackerScott:



The problem is there's no convection. Take El-Nino aside because this is even abnormal during El-Nino years. Almost in the Peak of hurricane season and there is hardly any thunderstorms across the MDR. Makes no sense to me.




exactly.... my point.... exactly like last year and the year before and even 2011. from 2011 to now. every year it gets worse and worse. notice the trend?

Quoting 686. wunderweatherman123:

kori, so far the models have been dead on when they had something developing before dropping it. I have a good amount of confidence in them in the short range. 7 days out. what's extremely disappoint is even in the most unfavorable years, they would hint at development. maybe the track was wrong and in most cases it was but at least we expected something to get going
The short range is what's important, yes. I'm not gonna say it's impossible they're wrong about no development in the next two weeks (as we clearly saw last year time and time again), but they're just models. Hints in the pattern can be gleaned two weeks in advance, but when it comes to predicting tropical cyclogenesis, those signals usually aren't as apparent in my experience. Although I could be mistaken.
Quoting 686. wunderweatherman123:

kori, so far the models have been dead on when they had something developing before dropping it. I have a good amount of confidence in them in the short range. 7 days out. what's extremely disappoint is even in the most unfavorable years, they would hint at development. maybe the track was wrong and in most cases it was but at least we expected something to get going


GFS was buzzing in the long range tropical activity during July & August of 2013 this year nothing. Gives the idea that condition are even worse than 2013 across the Atlantic basin.

Quoting 684. StormTrackerScott:



The problem is there's no convection. Take El-Nino aside because this is even abnormal during El-Nino years. Almost in the Peak of hurricane season and there is hardly any thunderstorms across the MDR. Makes no sense to me.




Things suck right now. By no means will conditions ever really get favorable, but I think too many people are downplaying climatology. Even last year had its moments.
Quoting 687. hydrus:

I believe the large t-waves crossing Africa are at least partially responsible for pulling Saharan dust into the Atlantic.



You know I never thought of that and is a very good point because the waves over Africa have been very strong and it is amazing that we have had 1 TD and a TS from waves exiting Africa so far despite the desert like conditions across the MDR region.
Very good point by hydrus! Looking at the waves exiting Africa it seems as each vigorous wave exits it pulls off a Sal Plume just north of were the wave exits Africa.
Now this is a monsoon. Look at India for the last 30 days and it shows atleast 20" of rain across many areas of India. Looks like India is making up from a late start to the rainy season.

Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb 2:58 AM GMT on August 12, 2014

Keep an eye on 94L I give it a 50% chance of development, conditions will get better as it approaches the islands.

I think the forecasters at NHC need to work closely with each other to avoid putting out updates that are almost opposite. It's amazing how Avila completely disregarded Blake's prognosis

This is what Blake wrote at 8 p.m. last night.

8 p.m. Aug 11Eric Blake wrote: Little development is expected during the next
couple of days due to the system moving through a dry and stable atmosphere over marginally warm waters. After that time, "environmental conditions could become more conducive for some development" over the western tropical Atlantic Ocean

In the 2 a.m. update Blake again said conditions are expected to become more favorable closer to the Caribbean.

In the 8 a.m. update Avila said conditions are unfavorable. This may be true, but they need to work together to avoid the perception that the right hand does not know what the left hand is doing.
"I've lived in this area 40 years, and can't ever recall all the major expressways closing for flooding like happened in today's storms," said Jeff Masters, director of meteorology for The Weather Channel's sister company, Weather Underground...................................Some of the heaviest rain came in the 6 p.m. hour, when 1.24 inches of rain fell at Detroit Metropolitan Airport in just 24 minutes, part of a record-breaking 4.57 inches of total rainfall for the day. It is the second-heaviest calendar-day rainfall on record in the Motor City, behind only a 4.74-inch deluge on July 31, 1925.

In Oakland County, a spotter reported 6.25 inches of rain over just 12 hours in Southfield.

Despite measuring its snowiest winter on record earlier this year, breaking a 133-year-old record, Detroit's precipitation total for 2014 to date was near normal before Monday's storm.


Link

The Japan Meteorological Agency issued an "emergency weather warning" for Mie Prefecture over the weekend as it was drenched by all-time record rainfall, with nearly 17 inches of rainfall in 24 hours.

The maximum reported rainfall occurred in Yanase, Kochi Prefecture, on Shikoku. The site recorded 1,081 millimeters (42.56 inches) of rain in the 72-hour period ending at 12:30 p.m. JST Sunday, Aug. 10, including a remarkable 862 millimeters (33.94 inches) of rain in just 24 hours.


Link
Quoting 691. KoritheMan:


Things suck right now. By no means will conditions ever really get favorable, but I think too many people are downplaying climatology. Even last year had its moments.

last year did not have ANY moments. neither did 2012. Sandy is a once in a lifetime storm. 2011 was the last REAL season. there is something really wrong with the atlantic. It's like its been stuck have a really bad flu for years now...
698. FOREX
Can someone recommend a site where I can see the visible of waves that just exited Africa? The NHC site sucks when it comes to these particular waves.
699. SLU
Phase 2 MJO in mid-August but we still can't get a wave to wind up and the models are uninteresting.

The active era is over.


Quoting 699. SLU:

Phase 2 MJO in mid-August but we still can't get a wave to wind up and the models are uninteresting.

The active era is over.



that's a distinct possiblity. 2010 was the last year before the stable air came in and pretty much destroyed the atlantic basin. only 15 years. very memorable 15 years.
Quoting 697. wunderweatherman123:

last year did not have ANY moments. neither did 2012. Sandy is a once in a lifetime storm. 2011 was the last REAL season. there is something really wrong with the atlantic. It's like its been stuck have a really bad flu for years now...



Wow, 2012 did not have any moments??

I bet the residents of coastal NJ and NY would disagree. Hurricane Sandy (although declared extratropical at landfall) was a devastating natural disaster, only 2nd in damage totals after Hurricane Katrina. It was also amazing that it hit the NE USA during the last week of October 2012. That is very unusual .....
Quoting 682. KoritheMan:


It hasn't. No idea why that idea keeps being proposed.



I have seen several people post that as well..but no one ever provides a link for evidence..I would be interested to see if that is the case that an el nino will set all right with the Atlantic..
703. SLU
Quoting 700. wunderweatherman123:

that's a distinct possiblity. 2010 was the last year before the stable air came in and pretty much destroyed the atlantic basin. only 15 years. very memorable 15 years.


Even though 2011 and 2012 had 19 storms each, it was a case of quantity over quality but since then the evidence suggests that the 1995 - 2010 pattern we observed has obviously changed.
Just saw Dr Rick Knabb for the first time. Seems like a likeable guy but no one can touch Carl Parker in my book lol
705. Mikla
Quoting 698. FOREX:

Can someone recommend a site where I can see the visible of waves that just exited Africa? The NHC site sucks when it comes to these particular waves.


There is this one
And this one
And this one
And this one
706. FOREX
Quoting 705. Mikla:



There is this one
And this one
And this one
And this one
thank you.
Quoting 703. SLU:



Even though 2011 and 2012 had 19 storms each, it was a case of quantity over quality but since then the evidence suggests that the 1995 - 2010 pattern we observed has obviously changed.


Give it a few more years .... it is possible that when the number of named Atlantic storms decreases, we might get more USA land-falling hurricanes. Just might happen this year! It just takes the right storm to get under the right conditions, at the right time .. even if it is just for one week ... in a very hostile unfavorable season.
The Tracker owns this blog?
Quoting 698. FOREX:

Can someone recommend a site where I can see the visible of waves that just exited Africa? The NHC site sucks when it comes to these particular waves.


I like this one for west and central Africa:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/ Africa/West/Infraredcolor.htm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/ Africa/Central/Infraredcolor.htm
Quoting 692. StormTrackerScott:



You know I never thought of that and is a very good point because the waves over Africa have been very strong and it is amazing that we have had 1 TD and a TS from waves exiting Africa so far despite the desert like conditions across the MDR region.
I suspect that at some point, the added nuclei will affect the future potential of a wave. There's probably a fine balance. Nuclei vs dry air .... Hmmmm
711. FOREX
Quoting 709. slavicthunder:



I like this one for west and central Africa:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/ Africa/West/Infraredcolor.htm

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/satellite/ Africa/Central/Infraredcolor.htm

thank you.
Waves are strong in Africa until they hit waters close to the Verdes.After that Sal and dry air kill them.What a shame.
THAT TROPICAL WAVE HIT THE WATER STILL GOT ALL ITS RAIN WITH IT..
714. FOREX
The wave that just exited Africa looks promising, at least in the short term. Doe?s anyone know if it has any model support yet?
715. FOREX
Quoting 713. hurricanes2018:

THAT TROPICAL WAVE HIT THE WATER STILL GOT ALL ITS RAIN WITH IT..
Do you know if it has any model support yet?
717. FOREX
Quoting 716. LargoFl:


Do you think 94L has a future?
2013 even had systems during the peak of the season. I am not saying they were majors by no means but there was development. This year we had 2 hurricanes already we are nearing the peak of the season you will get your named systems to track don't need a 384 hour GFS model to tell me that. Let us hope that none of the systems that do form cause destruction to anyone they effect.
720. WWPR
Quoting 717. FOREX:
Do you think 94L has a future?


Not at least for the next 5 day.
Quoting 714. FOREX:

The wave that just exited Africa looks promising, at least in the short term. Doe?s anyone know if it has any model support yet?


I can tell you it is being watched very closely. Both of them are. I never gave 94L much of a chance and even when I first wrote about it and the Doc's blog, discussed the unfavorable conditions it would encounter. No model I know of had 94L developing any earlier than Wed or Thurs anyway as was mentioned by a number of bloggers. I believe there will be a small opportunity to develop at the end of the week but the dry air has persistent with this little system. The next two features may be a different story. I was more concerned with the feature now moving off of Africa and definitely would be interested in seeing what happens to the large feature in central Africa.



Good Morning.  The Norwegian weather service posts some of the best European satt data for Africa, the Middle East, and Europe (link below) IMHO:

http://www.yr.no/satellitt/afrika_dag_natt.html

Quoting 703. SLU:



Even though 2011 and 2012 had 19 storms each, it was a case of quantity over quality but since then the evidence suggests that the 1995 - 2010 pattern we observed has obviously changed.
The AMO is negative though..... the real culprit behind the 4 years of boring season is the stable dry air. don't know how to get rid of it... SAL is not the problem.
Quoting 679. allancalderini:

I am worried we are not going to make to Isaias this year. want to see the storm that will have that name. El Niño might bring vertical instability up in the Atlantic but I am not sure if its been proved it can.
With the strange patterns, almost nothing would surprise me. This a chance to learn something new about atmospheric dynamics over the tropics.
Quoting 721. Grothar:



I can tell you it is being watched very closely. Both of them are. I never gave 94L much of a chance and even when I first wrote about it and the Doc's blog, discussed the unfavorable conditions it would encounter. No model I know of had 94L developing any earlier than Wed or Thurs anyway as was mentioned by a number of bloggers. I believe there will be a small opportunity to develop at the end of the week but the dry air has persistent with this little system. The next two features may be a different story. I was more concerned with the feature now moving off of Africa and definitely would be interested in seeing what happens to the large feature in central Africa.




That is one of the largest t-waves I have ever seen over Central Africa.
Quoting 707. Stormwatch247:



Give it a few more years .... it is possible that when the number of named Atlantic storms decreases, we might get more USA land-falling hurricanes. Just might happen this year! It just takes the right storm to get under the right conditions, at the right time .. even if it is just for one week ... in a very hostile unfavorable season.
There is evidence that supports that very thing.



feature now moving off of Africa NEED TO BE WATCH
Quoting 704. K8eCane:

Just saw Dr Rick Knabb for the first time. Seems like a likeable guy but no one can touch Carl Parker in my book lol
Both are superb Mets.
The Dog Days of Summer are officially over. The period known as the hottest period in summer.
Quoting 724. hydrus:

With the strange patterns, almost nothing would surprise me. This a chance to learn something new about atmospheric dynamics over the tropics.


There is at at least some model support for those two waves. Namely the second one I think. 94L has never been loved by anything except the intensity models and those solutions seem very unreasonable.

Morning all
Quoting 699. SLU:

Phase 2 MJO in mid-August but we still can't get a wave to wind up and the models are uninteresting.

The active era is over.



I usually agree with all your posts, but I believe we are still in the active phase, and will be for at least 10 more years with 2 or 3 seasons slightly below average.
They moved the page I used to look at to see when an invest was activated/deactivated, but I see there wasn't 12Z SHIPS on 94L. Is 94L officially dead?


ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/

No 12Z run...
Quoting 730. Climate175:
The Dog Days of Summer are officially over. The period know as the hottest period in summer.


Eh, speak for yourself. We still have a few weeks left before the peak of our temps out here lol.



maybe invest 95L down the road
Quoting 733. Grothar:


maybe a yellow x soon
Quoting 732. hydrus:

I usually agree with all your posts, but I believe we are still in the active phase, and will be for at least 10 more years with 2 or 3 seasons slightly below average.


Euro and Euro ensemble MJO forecasts have been barely into phase 2, or close to the little circle of no phase at all...
the windshear are getting interesting for 94L
Quoting 730. Climate175:

The Dog Days of Summer are officially over. The period know as the hottest period in summer.


Now I know why I've been craving Milkbones the past few days.
Quoting 738. hurricanes2018:

maybe a yellow x soon


Please, you will get all the naysayers excited and they'll be here in droves.
06z GFS seems a bit confused. Shows an 850mb vort S of the Cape Verdes at 120hrs. Still shows that same system sitting in the same place at 168hrs. That doesn't seem very likely. Trouble determining which wave to pick up?



Quoting 735. TimSoCal:



Eh, speak for yourself. We still have a few weeks left before the peak of our temps out here lol.


That is the average in some places, but from this point on temps are going to be on the decrease on average. Some places the process will be slower than others.
Rick Knabb and Carl Parker- Knabb is a PhD. Parker has a BA degree and has finished the 60 hour, mostly online, certificate program from Miss State that allows one to call oneself a broadcast met. That program is no math, low science, mostly preparing a coherent forecast for TV.

Most of the Ken and Barbie TV 'mets' have Bachelor of Arts degrees in something like journo or communications and the MSU certificate.

Al Roker and Vivian Brown have real BS degrees in met or a related program. Rule of thumb, better looking the TV met, the lower the probability they actually studied any math or science in college. Brown has been on TWC 25 years, and she isn't bad looking, actually...

Abrams is a real met, as is Cantore...
Asked, not answered, based on what looks like 12Z modeling for 94L, has it been deactivated?
Quoting 745. EdMahmoud:

Rick Knabb and Carl Parker- Knabb is a PhD. Parker has a BA degree and has finished the 60 hour, mostly online, certificate program from Miss State that allows one to call oneself a broadcast met. That program is no math, low science, mostly preparing a coherent forecast for TV.

Most of the Ken and Barbie TV 'mets' have Bachelor of Arts degrees in something like journo or communications and the MSU certificate.

Al Roker and Vivian Brown have real BS degrees in met or a related program. Rule of thumb, better looking the TV met, the lower the probability they actually studied any math or science in college. Brown has been on TWC 25 years, and she isn't bad looking, actually...

Abrams is a real met, as is Cantore...
Good post.
Quoting 742. Grothar:



Please, you will get all the naysayers excited and they'll be here in droves.


No trash wave should get an X of any kind until it reaches 25-30W; imo. Unless of course there is a chance it impacts the Cape Verde Islands. There is a period of wind down immediately after they exit the coast and it takes a little time for them to either find their sea legs; or fall apart.
Typing Error: Known*
Quoting 746. EdMahmoud:

Asked, not answered, based on what looks like 12Z modeling for 94L, has it been deactivated?


Yes. 94 is no more. Sent to the rubbish bin.

Good catch by the way.
751. WWPR
Quoting 742. Grothar:


Please, you will get all the naysayers excited and they'll be here in droves.


I would dare to say red by tomorrow.
sooooo no 94L anymore
Enjoy this weekend as we expect a surge of increased heat and humidity next week with more 90s returning for a final summer hurrah. - CWG, You better give a big Hurrah for that.
www.sat24.com to see the tropical wave
Quoting 745. EdMahmoud:

Rick Knabb and Carl Parker- Knabb is a PhD. Parker has a BA degree and has finished the 60 hour, mostly online, certificate program from Miss State that allows one to call oneself a broadcast met. That program is no math, low science, mostly preparing a coherent forecast for TV.

Most of the Ken and Barbie TV 'mets' have Bachelor of Arts degrees in something like journo or communications and the MSU certificate.

Al Roker and Vivian Brown have real BS degrees in met or a related program. Rule of thumb, better looking the TV met, the lower the probability they actually studied any math or science in college. Brown has been on TWC 25 years, and she isn't bad looking, actually...

Abrams is a real met, as is Cantore...



My BS is in engineering, but if I had been/was a met student, I'd be furious at the AMS for letting people with zero math/science background get a 'broadcast meteorologist certificate' when most people graduating with a BS in met/atmospheric sciences can't get a job. Many are going for their MS degrees, in a few years, that market will saturate, and they'll feel compelled to get a doctorate. And since so many colleges offer met, and graduate many more mets than the market can absorb, people will have spent 6 or 8 years studying difficult subjects in college, running up student loans, and still won't be able to get jobs in the field.

Here in Houston, only KHOU-TV has degreed mets, the ABC and NBC affiliates use the 60 hour green screen trained people and buy their forecasts from AccuWeather or a similar service.

I'm a little sad Wunderground's corporate relative uses BA degree holders. Good looking people, but no trained mets.
Is this going to be like the 70's and 80's again where we had a quite Atlantic?.However we did have quality storms vs this 2011 and onward phase..
Quoting 756. washingtonian115:

Is this going to be like the 70's and 80's again where we had a quite Atlantic.However we did have quality storms vs this 2011 and onward phase..
1979.... david and fredrick. ill be happy if we get 2 MH a year. maybe in a la nina we get 4.... i feel like we are stuck in neither phase. something far worse....
Quoting 751. WWPR:



I would dare to say red by tomorrow.


:)
736. hurricanes2018 Gosh man that is one huge wave in the central Africa area
Quoting 736. hurricanes2018:


maybe invest 95L down the road


It has the 'look' on satellite
Quoting 757. wunderweatherman123:

1979.... david and fredrick. ill be happy if we get 2 MH a year. maybe in a la nina we get 4.... i feel like we are stuck in neither phase. something far worse....
Both killers. I was east of Moorehaven when David hit. It was impressive.
Quoting 756. washingtonian115:
Is this going to be like the 70's and 80's again where we had a quite Atlantic.However we did have quality storms vs this 2011 and onward phase..

Good morning Washi! I haven't talked to you in a while. How have you been?
And yes we haven't had a good quality storm (well maybe Auther) in a while. It's just a matter of time though...............I think ;)
holy moly

i am impressed at what the balmy GoM and 94L (to a small degree) have done to the SAL....
36 hrs ago....we had brick red solid from HoA to Less. Antilles....now its yellow with pockets of brick red, and fading fast....
sets the stage for that 92L or 95L right behind this low rider.....maybe just enough SAL and H pressure to make it railroad to Americas instead of fishing quickly because of strength....yet not enough SAL to really kill 92L or 95L down? hmmmm...

anyway good morning.....another hot balmy day ahead along the Emerald Coast....Sun is just rising and it's already in the mid 80's and humidity is deep....everything outside is drenched in dew.....about to create more SAL killing air all along the GOM today.....

i wonder if the remaining pocket of SAL around the Antilles will be yellow gone by the time 94L gets there....
the past 36 hours of moisture being fed all through the SAL has taken its toll on the dry air.....
Quoting 730. Climate175:

The Dog Days of Summer are officially over. The period known as the hottest period in summer.


man enjoy it!

not in the same boat here....this is our hottest time of the year...
another day here in Mobile in the high 90's, probably over 100 at the airport
with dewpoints in the 70's
its gonna fire storms again today probably, and kick huge moisture into the Atlantic Basin......

Link
765. FOREX
Does anyone know if the steering for future 95L will be the same as it was for 94L?
Quoting 701. Stormwatch247:




Wow, 2012 did not have any moments??

I bet the residents of coastal NJ and NY would disagree. Hurricane Sandy (although declared extratropical at landfall) was a devastating natural disaster, only 2nd in damage totals after Hurricane Katrina. It was also amazing that it hit the NE USA during the last week of October 2012. That is very unusual .....


It had a moment...the moment my childhood home in Point Pleasant Beach was destroyed.
755

Mike Iscovitz (Ch 26) has a BS in Meterology from FSU


nice looking tropical wave here!
Quoting 762. Tornado6042008X:


Good morning Washi! I haven't talked to you in a while. How have you been?
And yes we haven't had a good quality storm (well maybe Auther) in a while. It's just a matter of time though...............I think ;)
Good morning Tornado6042008X .It's dark and rainy here this morning.I just have lost all hope for this basin.Something is missing and it's not what it used to be.
4" to 6" of rain across the nature Coast so far this morning with more heavy rain training in.

771. FOREX
Quoting 768. hurricanes2018:



nice looking tropical wave here!
what site do you get this from?
This rain appears to be building toward the northside of Orlando later on.

Quoting Astrometeor:


Hey, a battle of wits is about all you can do. If we do a real battle, I'm afraid I might mortally wound you with nary a touch.


My mind is like a well honed blade of tempered steel

... that's been left in the rain way too long.
Quoting 767. Stats56:

755

Mike Iscovitz (Ch 26) has a BS in Meterology from FSU


Forgot. He was on a Lafayette, LA station when I lived there, and they take their weather seriously in South Louisiana. Guy named Rob Perillo, maybe sharpest TV met ever, but doomed to small market Lafayette as he is short and balding...
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yes. 94 is no more. Sent to the rubbish bin.

Good catch by the way.
I wonder if 95L will still breed the same high level of of excitement that we had with 94L?
Quoting Seattleite:


I wonder what temp would constitute a heat advisory there? I've seen Heat Warnings in Seattle posted for 93F before. Having lived in the south, it still bemuses me sometimes... Wait, wasn't Alaska under heat advisories last year?


Yes. The interior gets hot regularly and an easterly flow under a big high to the north in summer can make the panhandle really hot also (rare). But it seems not possible yet for Barrow.
Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...
Quoting odinslightning:
holy moly

i am impressed at what the balmy GoM and 94L (to a small degree) have done to the SAL....
36 hrs ago....we had brick red solid from HoA to Less. Antilles....now its yellow with pockets of brick red, and fading fast....
sets the stage for that 92L or 95L right behind this low rider.....maybe just enough SAL and H pressure to make it railroad to Americas instead of fishing quickly because of strength....yet not enough SAL to really kill 92L or 95L down? hmmmm...

anyway good morning.....another hot balmy day ahead along the Emerald Coast....Sun is just rising and it's already in the mid 80's and humidity is deep....everything outside is drenched in dew.....about to create more SAL killing air all along the GOM today.....

i wonder if the remaining pocket of SAL around the Antilles will be yellow gone by the time 94L gets there....
the past 36 hours of moisture being fed all through the SAL has taken its toll on the dry air.....
94L's not getting anywhere. It's dead and gone. Officially.
779. JRRP
R.I.P
Quoting 775. sar2401:

I wonder if 95L will still breed the same high level of of excitement that we had with 94L?


It (or what could, possibly, maybe be it) already is. Not even fully detached from the continent yet. Waves just off the coast are almost always more impressive than they are a day or two later. Patience is the word of the month. ;-)
781. FOREX
Quoting 779. JRRP:

R.I.P


Now time to watch the new wave.
Quoting 779. JRRP:

R.I.P
Who? 94L or Robin Williams.
Quoting 771. FOREX:

what site do you get this from?


Well that particular image is a picture of a computer screen. Can see the reflection of a plant in a window in the upper right. Not sure why one wouldn't just use a screen shot. ;-)
Anybody have the current link to invests being activated, upgraded and deactivated? Used to be on the NHC ftp server, where I still see the full SHIPS model, but I don't see the list of invests and numbered storms...
785. FOREX
Quoting 782. HurriHistory:

Who? 94L or Robin Williams.
Both.
The Dog days of summer are right now for me............I walk my 10 year old Chocolate Lab every morning around 6:30; been incredibly nice and cool in the early am here in North Florida the past few weeks (in spite of blistering heat by noon).  Yesterday and today, I busted out in a hot sweat walking the dog for 10 minutes............................
Quoting 784. EdMahmoud:

Anybody have the current link to invests being activated, upgraded and deactivated? Used to be on the NHC ftp server, where I still see the full SHIPS model, but I don't see the list of invests and numbered storms...


There have been some changes made to the way the ftp server is handled in order to protect sensitive information from the dark meteorological corners of the internet. nrti has more info if around?
788. FOREX
Quoting 783. StormJunkie:



Well that particular image is a picture of a computer screen. Can see the reflection of a plant in a window in the upper right. Not sure why one wouldn't just use a screen shot. ;-)

Can you tell what kind of plant? We can all argue about that for the next 8 days.
Getting to the time of year where the rate of change of day length and sun angle is becoming large enough to be noticeable. On the Equinox, the rate of change will be maximized.


I'm noticing the later sunrise and earlier sunsets now. You don't notice that a few weeks either side of the Solstice.
Quoting 777. EdMahmoud:

Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...


Channel 4 NY with Chuck Scarborough and Jack Cafferty I believe. He was the real deal.
Quoting 787. StormJunkie:



There have been some changes made to the way the ftp server is handled in order to protect sensitive information from the dark meteorological corners of the internet. nrti has more info if around?


Thanks.

I've also noticed when NHC is close to pulling the trigger on an invest, the lat/long forecast fed to SHIPS is hidden, and replaced by 'xx.x'. Distance to land still there, and since the official NHC forecast on an actual system is almost always very close to the consensus, I don't know why they need to hide that.

But they do. Early in the life of an invest they use the medium BAM.
Quoting FOREX:
Do you think 94L has a future?
No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.
Next!
i know some people wanna write off 94L due to a lack of cyclonic activity, but i think that may change once it gets past Antilles and organizes....the southern low rider track is keeping the cyclonic activity at a minimum....
i really think that may save this trash wave
if it did cyclone now it would chew huge SAL fast out of the northern quads
and then the wave really would die then.....

not saying 94L will fire....i am just saying that it has been impressive in creating convection on the southern deep SAL basin, and the GoM firing the humidity is really chewing into the SAL now....and that probably isn't gonna stop anytime soon now....its just that time of year....balmy as heck here!

the wave may look like crap presentation wise right now....but its a wave....and its made it this far.....so.....
94L may be officially dead, but the wave is still there, and maybe is 7 or 10 days from trying to develop again. Glass 1/32nd full on 94L's corpse becoming a TC in the next two weeks, add a week and include the East Pac, 5/32nds full optimistic.
Quoting 789. EdMahmoud:
Getting to the time of year where the rate of change of day length and sun angle is becoming large enough to be noticeable. On the Equinox, the rate of change will be maximized.


I'm noticing the later sunrise and earlier sunsets now. You don't notice that a few weeks either side of the Solstice.
:(
Quoting 761. hydrus:

Both killers. I was east of Moorehaven when David hit. It was impressive.
I think i won the bet ;)
Quoting StormJunkie:


It (or what could, possibly, maybe be it) already is. Not even fully detached from the continent yet. Waves just off the coast are almost always more impressive than they are a day or two later. Patience is the word of the month. ;-)
I rather agree with your proposal. No "X" until it has spent at least 72 hours over water. Maybe 10 years ago, it wouldn't have been as big of an issue, but now we have all the dark meteorological corners of the internet hoping on these, and the GFS ensemble running off them before there's even a decent CoC. Just leave them alone and let the nerds argue over clouds.
Quoting 778. sar2401:

94L's not getting anywhere. It's dead and gone. Officially.


yah that may be....
but it has done a toll on the SAL on the southeastern end around the Horn, for what it was worth....
here comes 95L though....
800. FOREX
Quoting 793. Skyepony:

Next!

LOL. what???
Quoting odinslightning:


yah that may be....
but it has done a toll on the SAL on the southeastern end around the Horn, for what it was worth....
here comes 95L though....
Do you check real close to make sure your steak's not moving before you put it on the grill too?
Quoting 777. EdMahmoud:

Aside- Dr. Frank field, on WNBC when I was wee one, was a medical doctor. In that sense, 'Doctor' was a bit misleading. However, the Army sent him to college to study met during WW2, so he was an actual meteorologist...
They made this guy the "lead" met and fired the more professional one...

Wondered how that happened...
Quoting 792. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.
I agree. No matter how good a Tropical Wave looks while it is over Africa (and as we know, some of these waves can look like full blown Cyclones), only a tiny percentage of them will ever amount to anything as they traverse the Atlantic. Putting every Tropical Wave under a microscope as it moves off the African Coast between August and October can drive you nuts.
Quoting 802. washingtonian115:

They made this guy the "lead" met and fired the more professional one...

Wondered how that happened...
I have never liked that guy that much.
Quoting 792. sar2401:

No, it doesn't. It's dead. It was never going to organize before Wednesday at the earliest. I wrote you about that yesterday. Until these waves can spend a couple of days over water, we won't know if they have any staying power. It's up to you if you want to hang with every wave that comes off Africa. The vast majority, no matter how good they look over land, will not develop into even a depression. If the last couple of days of blog silliness with 94L doesn't convince you, I don't know what will.


it couldnt form
it a) is too far south (the magnets are netural, it cant spin)
b) even if it did form now a cane will not get huge and come across the atlantic....if it gets big far out in all likelihood it is gonna polar and hook n to go fish....

the stronger the storm, the more of a pull it feels from the magnetism from the pole....
but 94L is still a wave....look what it did to that pocket around the Horn in the past 36 hrs....
it has fired a LOT of convection....
it may not have held onto that convection, but it did tear the SAL apart with it.....
it may look like crap, but it is still a wave.....
not saying the 14 day outlooks on sunday were cool, u all know how i feel about that crap....
just keeping things in context.....
Quoting 793. Skyepony:

Next!

nice tropical wave


anyone watching invest 99E
94L is not dead yet

Vort at low to mid level (850,700,500) continues to stregnthen and consolidate

Conditions are like 95-98% good with only the SAL and dry air (more SAL than dry air though) mostly being an inhibiting factor

We should still keep close eye on this one it may just find that spot with even better conditions

Also I see a nice wave that just came off the African Coast reminds me of when 94L just came off

It may suffer the same short tem fate as 94L although it has one less inhibiting factor which would be dry air the wave is sitting in moist air

It's got less SAL than 94L has to deal with but it's still got a bit of it that it need to get through

Wave behind not bad
Pouch 017L has been introduced as a Tropical Wave on the 12z TAFB surface analysis.

Quoting 804. Climate175:

I have never liked that guy that much.
Me either.Something seems fake about him..He's the "Chief" meteorologist but I think they gave him that position based off looks and to attract a younger audience.
Well, 2013 was looking better than this in terms of dry air around this time last year:



If our waves off Africa had that to work with, then I think we would seen some rather interesting systems. But for now it seems dry air will keep them in check for a little bit. Although we have 2 very strong waves coming our way who could beat out the dry air - the one currently coming off of Africa and the one behind.
WKC, according to the professionals, and all the major models. 94 is done. Kaput. I'll take their word for it. Anyway, this was always the most likely outcome for ex94. Time to glance E over the next few days.
Quoting 797. Gearsts:

I think i won the bet ;)
how so.? It did become invest 94L.....You said it wouldnt..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Me either.Something seems fake about him..He's the "Chief" meteorologist but I think they gave him that position based off looks and to attract a younger audience.

That's the thing I don't like about these days
These days it's all about looks or brawns
Before it use to be all about the experience/expertise or brain
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 773. georgevandenberghe:



My mind is like a well honed blade of tempered steel

... that's been left in the rain way too long.
In one of your posts, you claimed yourself a sociopath..Is that the truth.? Why post that.?
Quoting 813. hydrus:

how so.? It did become invest 94L.....You said it wouldnt..
damn it
Quoting 812. StormJunkie:

WKC, according to the professionals, and all the major models. 94 is done. Kaput. I'll take their word for it. Anyway, this was always the most likely outcome for ex94. Time to glance E over the next few days.

The thing isn't done just because it's barren, Bertha? Still has some decent vorticity with it, it should still be watched if it makes it's way into the Western Caribbean or BOC. (Even professionals make mistakes sometimes, and the models are effectively just tools to get a general idea of what MIGHT happen, and they are wrong more often than not no matter how technologically advanced they have become now or will become in the future)
ive seen worse looking storms than this surprise us.................................94L
820. SLU
Quoting 732. hydrus:

I usually agree with all your posts, but I believe we are still in the active phase, and will be for at least 10 more years with 2 or 3 seasons slightly below average.


Time will tell if the active era has ended or not but it really does seem that the Atlantic has been slowly running out of steam since 2010.