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Little change to 99L, which remains very close to tropical depression status

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:11 PM GMT on October 20, 2010

A tropical disturbance (Invest 99L) centered 160 miles southwest of the Cayman Islands is moving south to southeast at 5 - 10 mph. A Hurricane Hunter flight arrived in the storm at about 11am this morning, and found a closed circulation with top winds at flight level (700 feet) of 33 mph. A closed circulation and 30 mph surface winds are necessary conditions for a tropical depression to exist, but the storm must also have a great deal of heavy thunderstorm activity near the center that persists for many hours. In the judgment of NHC, 99L does not qualify as a tropical depression in that regard. The storm is bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands; 4.14" inches has fallen over the past 2 1/2 days at Savannah on Grand Cayman Island. Heavy rains have diminished over the Cayman Islands, but have spread to western Jamaica and west-central Cuba this afternoon. Recent satellite imagery shows that the surface circulation center is exposed to view, and 99L has a relatively meager amount of heavy thunderstorm activity. The center is more than 80 miles west of the heaviest thunderstorm activity, and it is likely that 99L's center will relocate itself to the east to be more underneath the heaviest thunderstorms. Wind shear is marginal for development, 15 - 20 knots, due to the clockwise flow of air around an upper-level high pressure system near the coast of Honduras. The high is bringing strong upper-level winds out of the southwest to 99L. Water vapor satellite loops show considerable dry air to the west and north of 99L, and the strong southwesterly winds over the storm are bringing some of this dry into into the core of the storm, keeping all the heavy thunderstorm development confined to the east side of the center. The waters beneath 99L are very warm, 29°C, but 99L will not be able to take advantage of these warm waters until the shear relaxes. A new hurricane hunter aircraft will be in the storm tonight near 8pm EDT.

Forecast for 99L
The current southward movement of 99L is carrying the storm into a region of lower wind shear, and we should see 99L accumulate more heavy thunderstorm activity near its center beginning tonight. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear over the Western Caribbean will decline below 15 knots Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, which should allow the storm to become a tropical depression by Thursday. Steering currents will be weak today through Friday in the Western Caribbean, making it difficult to predict where 99L may go. The models are split into two camps, with the GFDL and HWRF models taking 99L to the west-northwest over the western tip of Cuba or the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday as a hurricane. The rest of the models take 99L to the south over Honduras on Sunday, and keep the storm below hurricane strength. Given 99L's current southward motion and the possibility that the center will relocate farther to the east later today, this makes a track to the southwest towards Honduras more likely, I predict. NHC is giving 99L a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I expect this will become Tropical Storm Richard by Friday.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of Invest 99L.

Death toll from Super Typhoon Megi in the Philippines remarkably low
The power is still out and communications are down over the majority of the northern portion of the Philippines' Luzon Island blasted by Typhoon Megi yesterday, so the full extent of the destruction wrought by the great storm is still unclear. However, the death toll from the great storm stands at only 19, reflecting the superior effort Philippines officials made to evacuate low-lying areas and get people out of locations prone to flash flooding and mudslides. Previous major typhoons to strike the Philippines have nearly always killed hundreds, and sometime thousands, so the preparation and evacuation efforts for Megi likely saved hundreds of lives. Megi hit Luzon on Monday morning at 3:30 UTC as a Category 5 super typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb. Severe damage was done to Isabela Province in northern Luzon, and media reports indicate that 200,000 people are homeless.


Figure 2. Visible MODIS satellite image of Megi from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at 1:30am EDT October 20, 2010. At the time, Megi was a Category 4 typhoon with 135 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island destroyed Megi's eyewall and inner core region, and the storm compensated by expanding and intensifying the portions of its circulation that were over water. Now that its center is back over water in the South China Sea, Megi has re-developed its inner core and has intensified into a formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds. Megi has been able to maintain its larger size, and is now a much larger typhoon than when it hit the Philippines. This is similar to what happened to Hurricane Ike in 2008 when it passed over Cuba, and helped give Ike a very destructive storm surge when it came ashore over Texas. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots over Megi, and the waters of the South China Sea have a very high total heat content to great depth, so Megi should be able to remain a very dangerous major typhoon through Friday. The larger size of Megi means that it will be able to deliver a significant storm surge in excess of ten feet to the coast of China of Friday or Saturday, when the storm is expected to make landfall north of Hong Kong. As the storm approaches the coast on Friday, wind shear is expected to rise to the moderate or high range, and the total heat content of the ocean will drop significantly, so some weakening is to be expected. Still, Megi will probably hit China as a major Category 3 typhoon, or as a strong Category 2, bringing a significant storm surge, high winds, and widespread torrential rains that will likely make this a multi-billion dollar disaster for China. The outer rain bands of Megi are already affecting the coast of China north of Hong Kong, as seen on Hong Kong radar and Taiwan radar.


Figure 3. Still frame of damage to NE Luzon Island from a video posted to YouTube by storm chaser James Reynolds of typhoonfury.com.

Next update
I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. scott39
Who said we have Richard??
Quoting scott39:
The GFDL and the HWRF have Richard moving faster than the EURO. We will see!


That's because of the trough moving in and forcing a faster movement to the NE. It is appearing that this is our first major threat to the US so far this year.
Quoting scott39:
Who said we have Richard??


Recon is finding 50 to 58 mph winds right now.
Quoting Chicklit:
What does GFDL say about little richard?


It's latest model run, along with the hwrf (which has be consistant) have it move through the Yuc. Penn and into the gulf, onto West Coast FL.
1005. whadat
Link
Station 42057. Good Morning.
1006. scott39
Quoting Jeff9641:


That's because of the trough moving in and forcing a faster movement to the NE. It is appearing that this is our first major threat to the US so far this year.
I think its too soon to say where Richard is going to make landfall in the US.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Recon is finding 50 to 58 mph winds right now.

That has to be in the eastern semicircle where all the convection is present.
1008. afj3
Quoting scott39:
I think its too soon to say where Richard is going to make landfall in the US.

Or if it makes landfall as something of any note?
Quoting scott39:
I think its too soon to say where Richard is going to make landfall in the US.
I know you really meant to say if Richard makes landfall in US
AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS
Lower Level Convergence

Click To Enlarge
1013. scott39
Quoting weaverwxman:
I know you really meant to say if Richard makes landfall in US
Ok, If it makes it into the GOM, some form of it landing in the US is too soon!
Upper Level Divergence

Click To Enlarge
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS



so have they announced t.s. status at nhc?
1016. NotJFV
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO
THE NORTH...AND IS HEAVILY BASED ON THE GFS...THE UK MODELS AND
CONTINUITY. I HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
BECAUSE THE GFDL...THE HWRF AND THE ECMWF TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD
THE NORTH OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE TRACK HAS TO BE ADJUSTED
NORTHWARD LATER ON.


The NHC has definitely given themselves an "out" to change the cone north. I think they're waiting for recon and then they'll figure out how the new "Cone of uncertainty" sets up.

Disclaimer, I am a complete novice but thus is what I have gathered so far.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



so have they announced t.s. status at nhc?
no they havent as to time of this post
1018. scott39
When is the trough forecasted to influence Richards stearing when and if he gets in the GOM?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Just got off of the phone with him.
We figure the odds at 60% for him to leave for Tampa tommorrow. Driving from New Mexico to Florida takes alot of time!


Keep me posted buddy! I live north of Orlando and it appears we could get hurricane force winds here this far inland if the GFDL and HWRF pan out. I do think the Tampa Shield is gone with this one. Orlando mets are making references to the last hurricane to hit Tampa in 1925 I believe is the year as that happened as well in October.
What are the Newest Models saying?
1021. WxLogic
A Special Advisory might be issue to announce the newly developed TS Richard, since we're no near close to 11AM EST.
Now it's really official, with a name and everything...

AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, RICHARD, S,
Quoting scott39:
When is the trough forecasted to influence Richards stearing when and if he gets in the GOM?

Not until days 4 or 5...so a while yet. And only if the mid-level ridge over FL will begin to break down enough in time
king richard has arrived. ty nea for the update.

we will see what kind of a crusade he has planned next....lol
1026. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS


I saw this...just upgraded....

Information About Tropical Storm Richard

Storm information valid as of: Thursday, October 21, 2010 12:00 Z
Coordinates: 16.5N 80.7W (View Map or View Storm Centered Satellite Image)
Location: 199 miles (320 km) to the SSE (167°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR)
Distance Calculator: How far away is this storm from me?
Pressure (MSLP): 1006 mb (29.71 inHg | 1006 hPa)
Sustained wind speed (1 min. avg.): 35 knots (40 mph | 18 m/s)
1027. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Newest Models saying?


Believe it or not,none of the official models are posted yet. They just removed all of them. They must be doing a serious update.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Newest Models saying?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ models
Quoting Grothar:


Believe it or not,none of the official models are posted yet. They just removed all of them. They must be doing a serious update.


Are you serious?
1030. Grothar

not much on west side.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Check post 979 and before you look please look with extreme caution!

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/nineteen19l.2010102106_nest3.png


Ouch!! If it wasn't early in the game I would be super worried. But, as happens anytime the models point to something hitting the Tampa Bay area this early - it always shifts away. I'll take that model look now rather than later.
will megi hit north korea?
Quoting WxLogic:
A Special Advisory might be issue to announce the newly developed TS Richard, since we're no near close to 11AM EST.

That's a fair possibility.
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ models
Published 21st October, 7:06am

Tropical Depression 19 is currently south of the Cayman Islands.

At 5 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has TD19 near 17.0 N 80.7 W or about 160 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, 197 miles south of Cayman Brac.

TD19 is currently moving towards the southeast near 3 mph with maximum sustained winds near 35mph. This system posses no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands; however, rainfall associated with the system will continue to impact the islands over the next day or two. Swells are expected to affect the south and east coast of the Cayman Islands.

The CINWS will continue to monitor the progress of this storm. All interest within the Cayman Islands should continue to monitor the local media for the latest information on this system.

The next bulletin will be issued at 10 a.m. today.

For further information contact: Simon Boxall
1036. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Not until days 4 or 5...so a while yet. And only if the mid-level ridge over FL will begin to break down enough in time
Thanks, So its all about the timing?
Quoting gordydunnot:

not much on west side.

Not yet. He's very lopsided and partial to his eastern semicircle.
1038. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you serious?


No, I kid a lot, but not about storms.

They just posted this a few minutes ago. One of the dynamic models:

Although storm does appear to be getting larger in area not good if it starts to wrap up.
rick knabb is predicting a landfall into the yucatan with complete dissipation shortly thereafter. he also said hard shear was coming in from the sw. i no longer trust the weather channel, nbc, or general electric for that matter. not that he could be right about the yucatan landfall, but the sheer attempt at misinformation he just showed. now watch, they will advertise a trip to cozumel 3 minutes later in the commercials.....pathetic.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
will megi hit north korea?

Hong Kong sure is going to dodge a bullet. Brunt of the system traversing well to the north.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Published 21st October, 7:06am

Tropical Depression 19 is currently south of the Cayman Islands.

At 5 a.m. the National Hurricane Center in Miami Florida has TD19 near 17.0 N 80.7 W or about 160 miles south-southeast of Grand Cayman, 197 miles south of Cayman Brac.

TD19 is currently moving towards the southeast near 3 mph with maximum sustained winds near 35mph. This system posses no immediate threat to the Cayman Islands; however, rainfall associated with the system will continue to impact the islands over the next day or two. Swells are expected to affect the south and east coast of the Cayman Islands.

The CINWS will continue to monitor the progress of this storm. All interest within the Cayman Islands should continue to monitor the local media for the latest information on this system.

The next bulletin will be issued at 10 a.m. today.

For further information contact: Simon Boxall
what ajoke!!
For those of you wondering about possible Shary in the far eastern Atlantic: while it's not unheard of at this time of year, it is very rare. From the NHC, here are the birthplaces of all TCs that formed over the past 100 years from October 21 to Halloween:

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
will megi hit north korea?

Very unlikely. However, Megi's remnants might eventually reach it.
Quoting scott39:
Thanks, So its all about the timing?

NP. It might come down to that, yes. The model spread is very great right now as there are many variables currently at play, especially beyond 72 hours.
Quoting Grothar:


No, I kid a lot, but not about storms.

They just posted this a few minutes ago. One of the dynamic models:



The TVCN will be the new 11am track.
Just got off the phone with the Melbourne office and they expect the NHC to shift the track east with the new TVCN track. We could be talking about a storm coming here in 5 days.
1048. Grothar
Navy site has it named.

1049. scott39
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
rick knabb is predicting a landfall into the yucatan with complete dissipation shortly thereafter. he also said hard shear was coming in from the sw. i no longer trust the weather channel, nbc, or general electric for that matter.
I saw on the local news last night, that winds are going to shift from the NW to the SW starting next week.
How exciting!
Hi everyone long time lurker here in the Tampa area. Just saw this man named Richard pop up lol. As life would have it, I am suppose to leave Florida next Wednesday to start a new job in Pittsburgh. I am getting a funny feeling that could be delayed a few days. When is Richard predicted to come into the area if all the pieces fall into place?
guess they are busy updating
For those of you keeping score at home, that's 17-9-5, on its way to a very likely 17-10-5, and even an outside chance of 17-10-6....
According to the Google Earths data from the NHC, there is a 90L out there somewhere.... They have the header listed.. just no data yet.




1055. HCW
1056. Grothar
Quoting Jeff9641:


The TVCN will be the new 11am track.


The TVCN is only a concensus model, not really a tracking model. It usually just combines at least 2 or more models and and gives an assumed plot. It changes much more than the regular models.
1057. scott39
Quoting Jeff9641:
Just got off the phone with the Melbourne office and they expect the NHC to shift the track east with the new TVCN track. We could be talking about a storm coming here in 5 days.
Are you a Met?
Quoting Orcasystems:
According to the Google Earths data from the NHC, there is a 90L out there somewhere.... They have the header listed.. just no data yet.





That could be the invest associated with the wave off the African coast...which the NHC is giving 10% chance of development... But I'm not sure.
and you all thought the Florida landfall idea was nuts.. Maybe Richard will be a CONUS landfall.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Just got off the phone with the Melbourne office and they expect the NHC to shift the track east with the new TVCN track. We could be talking about a storm coming here in 5 days.


That's kinda cool...do you have a contact there or do you just call and they'll talk to you?
Quoting Chicklit:
What does GFDL say about little richard?





pdoug: oz is coming to fl,for a ts??,cause its highly unlikely the tampa area gets a hurricane lanfall imo, id offer support,but the way they threw away half the chase team(xtreme wx),for$ $$....i wont offer a thing!!!
Quoting scott39:
I saw on the local news last night, that winds are going to shift from the NW to the SW starting next week.


no thats not what he said at all. he said that currently the sw quad was taking a pounding with wind shear. he is a complete liar.

the weather channel is gone. if you want to trust them, well if your an american you have the right to believe in whatever you want. i just tend to not trust liars, thats all. no offense to you, it was just disgusting to see him lie like that. but to each their own :)

downcasters should love the new weather channel. they will always back up a downcaster lol.
Quoting HCW:


Every model bends this to FL now.
90L is the eastern Atlantic disturbance...

Quoting cat5hurricane:

That could be the invest associated with the wave off the African coast...which the NHC is giving 10% chance of development... But I'm not sure.
Thursday morning (U.S. time), Typhoon Megi had maximum sustained winds of 110 mph, which is a strong category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

1068. Jax82
SSTs
This thing could become a hurricane...
Check out MIMIC-TPW

TD19 aint gettin any further north than Yucatan, then it either goes East or West.

North? Not very likely, there is a wall there and if TD19 tries going that way, it will be in a dead zone real soon.

Then 'poof'.

Real disappointing, cause we need the rain real bad here in SWFLA.

1071. Grothar
90L!!

It was born down there, it will die down there. Not going to Florida.
Quoting DookiePBC:


That's kinda cool...do you have a contact there or do you just call and they'll talk to you?


Anybody can call. If you have questions then call them if you wish. They are very nice people there.
Yikes

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:






GFDL still appears to be the big cheese
Wow, now that is an out on the limb statement.

Quoting RitaEvac:
It was born down there, it will die down there. Not going to Florida.
Navy site: Richard

1078. scott39
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


no thats not what he said at all. he said that currently the sw quad was taking a pounding with wind shear. he is a complete liar.

the weather channel is gone. if you want to trust them, well if your an american you have the right to believe in whatever you want. i just tend to not trust liars, thats all. no offense to you, it was just disgusting to see him lie like that. but to each their own :)

downcasters should love the new weather channel. they will always back up a downcaster lol.
Ok, I thought you were refering to wind direction and the effects on wind shear in the GOM. No offense taken.
1079. Grothar
Didn't think I would be posting my Globe again this season, but here is a view of 90L

1080. NotJFV
Quoting Jeff9641:


Every model bends this to FL now.

No the do not all take R towards Florida, they may eventually but as of right not NO ALL MODELS DO NOT TAKE THIS INTO FL.
Please make sure to post facts before you write them down.
These are the types of posts that causes WU to go insane.
Yep: ATCF:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al192010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201010211240
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
RICHARD, AL, L, , , , , 19, 2010, TS, O, 2010101700, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 4, AL192010
Quoting Jeff9641:


Anybody can call. If you have questions then call them if you wish. They are very nice people there.


Cool...thanks for the info. I'll have to keep this in mind in the future!
1083. JRRP
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Yikes



Well it looks like our dry spell will come to an end!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Yikes



Maybe the Models will come into greater Consensus Later Today or tommorow.

A Wilma Situation is quite possible.. almost at the same time.....
1088. Jax82
You can see Megi's cold water trail.

1090. Grothar
Steering direction this time of year in Carribbean is stagnant, they meander down there.
1092. quante
Given this shear map, could even a strong hurricane survive in the GOM??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=&sat=wgE∏=shr&zoom=&time =0
1093. Grothar
Remember two things when it comes to Richard...

First, this forecast US landfall is still five days away... And, here are the error trends for the five day forecast in blue:



Second, the last time that the Tampa Bay area took a direct landfall was October 25, 1921...

So, it's best to pay attention, make sure those plans are all up to date, and watch carefully...
1095. Grothar
Sub-tropical jet is expected to lift north with the steering high that would bring the system in the gulf. Cannot have a jet stream like it depicted right now going through a high pressure system. Only place to go is north, if the forecast verifies...

Then the jet would come back south with the passing trough

Quoting quante:
Given this shear map, could even a strong hurricane survive in the GOM??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=&sat=wgE%u220F=shr&am p;zoom=&time =0
Quoting Grothar:


DoomCoom Level Elvated to 5.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Steering direction this time of year in Carribbean is stagnant, they meander down there.

Therefore the next couple days will tell alot in regards to where he might finally end up. But he is currently meandering south and it's not out of the relm of possibility that motion may continue a little longer than anticipated.
Quoting RitaEvac:
It was born down there, it will die down there. Not going to Florida.


Absolutely. You hit it 5 by 5.

And we really need the rain.

Oh well, maybe next year.

Quoting LdyAvalon:
Hi everyone long time lurker here in the Tampa area. Just saw this man named Richard pop up lol. As life would have it, I am suppose to leave Florida next Wednesday to start a new job in Pittsburgh. I am getting a funny feeling that could be delayed a few days. When is Richard predicted to come into the area if all the pieces fall into place?



You have WU Mail
1102. JRRP
Quoting Jeff9641:


Well it looks like our dry spell will come to an end!



I would like that. Hopefully, if Richard decides to pay a visit, he will have had too many Cerveza's in the Yucatan.
Quoting Grothar:


No, I kid a lot, but not about storms.

They just posted this a few minutes ago. One of the dynamic models:



Yep, I've been watching the dynamics for a last couple of phases...looking like more consensus along those lines.

What are we seeing by way of the steering mean?

Good morning, by the way...I was just singing the Pre-Cambrian Tech fight song...do you remember it? LOL
Very very good suggestions Tom...

Quoting TampaTom:
Remember two things when it comes to Richard...

First, this forecast US landfall is still five days away... And, here are the error trends for the five day forecast in blue:



Second, the last time that the Tampa Bay area took a direct landfall was October 25, 1921...

So, it's best to pay attention, make sure those plans are all up to date, and watch carefully...
As for Richard our top two performers eventually hit SouthWest Florida..one to watch..
Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
HWRF DECREASING 54.2 81.4 60.3 80 -1
GFDL CONSTANT 61.8 78.4 158 235.4 -1
BAMD INCREASING 147.2 233.5 345.4 512.5 -1
LBAR INCREASING 147.5 248 298.9 266.5 -1
MM5B DECREASING 191.4 182.8 140.1 176.3 -1

HWRF is a little slower & doesn't quit make landfall at the end of the run here's GFDL (current 2nd place) yellow is Cat 3 winds the red within that is Cat 4...

Quoting quante:
Given this shear map, could even a strong hurricane survive in the GOM??

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=&sat=wgE∏=shr&am p;zoom=&time =0

I highly doubt it.
If Richard can take a path like the GFDL and HWRF are showing looks like there could be a window of less shear off the SW coast of FL and could be a hurricane at landfall. If it goes into the central gulf it will get sheared apart into a rain shower where the bulk of the shear will be present. The crazy thing is if the storm does go into the direction of SW FL the GFS nailed this scenario almost 2 weeks ago. If that happens it makes you wonder why it dropped the ball. It has been clearly the best model for sniffing out development and sometimes gets the long range tracks close 7-10 days in advance with the early runs. When the storm actually starts to form or just before it seems to change it's mind and go another route. That is the only major con i have seen with the GFS since the upgrade this season.
1109. Jax82
I wouldnt get too excited about where its going until the 5 day cone (which still can have an error up to 300+ miles) hits the U.S. Most of us know how often these models see saw back and forth.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
CYCLONIC STORM GIRI (BOB04-2010)
14:30 PM IST October 21 2010
====================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Cyclonic Storm Giri lays centered over the same area near 17.5N 91.5E, or about 350 kms south southwest of Sittwe, Myanmar, 450 kms south of Cox Bazar, Bangladesh, and 650 kms southeast of Digha, West Bengal.

The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction models suggest that the system would intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm. It would move northwards initially and then north-northeastwards and cross north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts by tomorrow evening between Teknaf, Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu, Myanmar near Sittwe Myanmar.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gust of 50 knots. The central pressure of the system is 996 hPa. The state of the sea is high around the system's center.

Satellite imagery indicates banding pattern with further organization. The Dvorak intensity is T2.5. Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over east central Bay of Bengal between 14.0N to 20.0N and east of 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is around -80C.

Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is low to moderate. 24 hours tendency of vertical wind shear shows no significant change. Sea surface temperature is 28-32C and the ocean heat content over central Bay of Bengal are favorable for intensification. However, Ocean heat content is less than 100 kj/cm2. The relative vorticity at 850 hPa level and upper level divergence around the system's center is also favorable for intensification. The system lies close to the south of tropospheric ridge, which roughly runs along 18.0N at 200 HPA level. There is an anticyclonic circulation over central India to the northwest at mid-tropospheric level and is expected to influence the movement of GIRI towards the northeast direction.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
6 HRS: 18.0N 92.0E - 45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
12 HRS: 18.5N 92.5E - 50 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 19.5N 93.5E - 60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
Quoting Skyepony:
As for Richard our top two performers eventually hit SouthWest Florida..one to watch..
Average Position Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
HWRF DECREASING 54.2 81.4 60.3 80 -1
GFDL CONSTANT 61.8 78.4 158 235.4 -1
BAMD INCREASING 147.2 233.5 345.4 512.5 -1
LBAR INCREASING 147.5 248 298.9 266.5 -1
MM5B DECREASING 191.4 182.8 140.1 176.3 -1

HWRF is a little slower & doesn't quit make landfall at the end of the run here's GFDL (current 2nd place) yellow is Cat 3 winds the red within that is Cat 4...



Wilma...
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #67
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Megi (935 hPa) located at 20.2N 117.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0

Storm Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
240 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.6N 118.0E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 23.4N 117.7E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 24.6N 116.9E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near The Marianas

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1002 hPa) located at 17.2N 141.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 137.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
1114. Grothar
Quoting Floodman:


Yep, I've been watching the dynamics for a last couple of phases...looking like more consensus along those lines.

What are we seeing by way of the steering mean?

Good morning, by the way...I was just singing the Pre-Cambrian Tech fight song...do you remember it? LOL


Twit!! Yes, I remember it well.
The steering currents will remain weak for at least 24 to 36 hours. Then the high over the Gulf should retreat to the North and allow a more Norther movement of the system. I believe it will be a trough that MIGHT move Little Richard more to the NE.
Quoting Jax82:
I wouldnt get too excited about where its going until the 5 day cone (which still can have an error up to 300+ miles) hits the U.S. Most of us know how often these models see saw back and forth.


I agree. It'll be a while before that happens.
TropicalStormRichard's heading had turned southward to dueSouth
from its previous heading of (3.2degrees east of) SouthSouthEast
TS.Richard's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions increased to ~11.3mph(~18.2km/h) from its previous moving speed of ~5mph(~8km/h)
Invest 99L
20Oct 12amGMT - 17.7n83.2w - 30knots - 1009mb - ATCF*17.6n83.4w
20Oct 06amGMT - 17.8n82.9w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF
20Oct 12pmGMT - 17.7n82.5w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*1007mb
20Oct 06pmGMT - 17.6n81.7w - 30knots - 1008mb - ATCF*17.1n82.2w*17.6n81.6w
TropicalDepression19
21Oct 12amGMT - 17.5n81.2w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.6n81.2w
21Oct 03amGMT - 17.5n81.1w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1006mb - NHC.Adv.#1
21Oct 06amGMT - 17.2n80.8w - 30knots(~55.6km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*17.3n80.9w*1005mb
21Oct 09amGMT - 17.0n80.7w - 35mph (~56.3km/h) _ 1005mb - NHC.Adv.#2
TropicalStormRichard
21Oct 12pmGMT - 16.5n80.7w - 35knots(~64.8km/h) - 1006mb - ATCF*30knots
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers. Also see comment993.

Copy&paste 17.7n83.2w, 17.8n82.9w, 17.7n82.5w, 17.6n81.7w, 17.5n81.2w-17.5n81.1w, 17.5n81.1w-17.2n80.8w, 17.2n80.8w-17.0n80.7w, 17.0n80.7w-16.5n80.7w, rtb, puz, nbw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19
21:00 PM JST October 21 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Minami Torisima

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 20.3N 157.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 23.3N 154.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
1119. Grothar
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Wilma...


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:




We chase 'em when presented. About the other, friends is friends but business is business. Sucks, I know. It wasn't done lightly.
...shows true colors,money trumps friendships,rather know sooner than later anyways,glad i never wasted to much time w/the hillbillies,lol
1121. hulakai
climatologicly October TS within 50 km of 16.5 and -80.7 Central Am 17% N. Gulf 17% Fla 42% and Bahamas 25% Fla had 2 cat 3 hits and one cat 3 brush and 2 cat 2 hits. Most recently, Wilma Cat 3 2005.

Not happy with odds. Antennae up!
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.



Hahahaha. Good morning Grothar and everyone else. I see that the models have taken a very dramatic shift. This is getting scarier by the moment.
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.



Hopefully Shear rips it apart.
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.


LOL
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.



LOL, Nice.
1126. afj3
Am I evil to say this but ever since I was a little kid, every time a hurricane brews I want it to hit where I live? I see the models are really changing....
FAT cone

IF a tc threatens the west coas of fl i will be streaming live linked thru wunderground.com,IF,...no profits intended,100%free,as im a chaser because its what i love doing..all will be welcomed!!
Thanks for the info Skye.
We could sure use the rain.
Quoting stillwaiting:
IF a tc threatens the west coas of fl i will be streaming live linked thru wunderground.com,IF,...no profits intended,100%free,as im a chaser because its what i love doing..all will be welcomed!!

Look fwd to that. Not the cane heading to FL, but to see that live steam. Very cool man. Just be careful
1131. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Hahahaha. Good morning Grothar and everyone else. I see that the models have taken a very dramatic shift. This is getting scarier by the moment.


Told you so, told you so! How you doing Canes?

Just make sure you are all stocked up on batteries, water and Cheese Doodles. You should be OK.
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.



Best laugh of the day .... so far.
Everyone forget about recon?

13:22:00Z 16.567N 80.367W 962.7 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg) 402 meters
(~ 1,319 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)
1134. NotJFV
Quoting afj3:
Am I evil to say this but ever since I was a little kid, every time a hurricane brews I want it to hit where I live? I see the models are really changing....

No not evil, just probably have never been thru one.
Believe me it all changes after:
your community has been ripped apart,
you're sweltering in 90 degree heat with out air conditioning,
creature comforts are all gone except for the literal creatures,
insurance payments double,
contractors take over 8 months to fix your roof (if you're lucky),
someone cuts you off at a light because, oh yeah there is no light to stop at,
you scrounge around for water and decide that maybe drinking out of the toilet isn't a bad idea,
you can see the moonlight thru your roof and under an umbrella,
you have to protect your house with a gun because looters might be out to get at the little you have left,
etc.
Yeah, are you sure? OK, enjoy!
AL, 19, 2010102112, , BEST, 0, 165N, 807W, 35, 1006, TS

Tropical Cyclone "RICHARD"
Quoting Grothar:


Told you so, told you so! How you doing Canes?

Just make sure you are all stocked up on batteries, water and Cheese Doodles. You should be OK.


I was saying it too lol. No hurricane experience should be without beef jerky for me either. I'll be stocking up on what you said, including some Mr. Pibb, Cool Ranch Doritos, and some salsa con queso.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Everyone forget about recon?

13:22:00Z 16.567N 80.367W 962.7 mb
(~ 28.43 inHg) 402 meters
(~ 1,319 feet) 1007.7 mb
(~ 29.76 inHg)


What's going on?


Cyclonic Storm Giri
Quoting Grothar:


Come on Sammy, I told you before, don't get excited until you see something like this.

LMAO. Now can you put Nixon there....
Quoting Jeff9641:


What's going on?


Looks like they are trying to locate the center.
1142. Grothar
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Best laugh of the day .... so far.


Got to calm people down sometime with a little levity. Glad you got a chuckle.
Navy site has TS Richard
12:00Z Upper-Level Winds

12:00Z Lower Level Convergence

1146. kwgirl
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:



I would like that. Hopefully, if Richard decides to pay a visit, he will have had too many Cerveza's in the Yucatan.
Good morning everyone. This is all we need! A drunk storm that meanders all over the place. Then no one will be able to tell where it is going!LOL
1147. Grothar
Quoting Abacosurf:
LMAO. Now can you put Nixon there....


Sorry, that's too "Tricky"
Quoting IceSlater:
Navy site has TS Richard

Colorado State does as well.
Quoting NotJFV:

No not evil, just probably have never been thru one.
Believe me it all changes after:
your community has been ripped apart,
you're sweltering in 90 degree heat with out air conditioning,
creature comforts are all gone except for the literal creatures,
insurance payments double,
contractors take over 8 months to fix your roof (if you're lucky),
someone cuts you off at a light because, oh yeah there is no light to stop at,
you scrounge around for water and decide that maybe drinking out of the toilet isn't a bad idea,
you can see the moonlight thru your roof and under an umbrella,
you have to protect your house with a gun because looters might be out to get at the little you have left,
etc.
Yeah, are you sure? OK, enjoy!
Brings back memories...a little humor here but mostly reality. Good post.
coc 16.0 80.2
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Look fwd to that. Not the cane heading to FL, but to see that live steam. Very cool man. Just be careful
...notice the word" if" in bold letters twice,i'm still highly suspect of a cane forecast to make landfall in my area,because we always get tye threat,but never the landfall,so i doubt it until its imenent tomany false alarms to gt workd uo yet,jmo
Basically what it comes down to is the faster Richard moves the better chance it will not deal with as much shear and could impact FL as a strong TS or hurricane. If the ECMWF is correct on the timing it will get smacked with strong shear and will end up a remnant LP.
Complete Update

HH data and the new 90L



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
06Z GFS (250MB) 48 hours out gives Richard the green light for the most part to really get itself together. Conditions aloft pretty favorable.

1156. scott39
NHC has Richard on thier Floater. It also looks like hes moving due S.
GOES East is in rapid scan mode (8 images per hour) today. GHCC loop
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:45Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 309)
Tropical Depression: Number 19 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:27:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°19'N 80°29'W (16.3167N 80.4833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 215 miles (346 km) to the SSE (164°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 28kts (~ 32.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 93 nautical miles (107 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 130° at 26kts (From the SE at ~ 29.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 93 nautical miles (107 statute miles) to the NE (36°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1007mb (29.74 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 431m (1,414ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 429m (1,407ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 21°C (70°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Levels (sfc and flt lvl centers are within 5nm of each other): Surface and 1,500 feet
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 5 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the east quadrant at 12:25:00Z
Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: Below 1,500 feet
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the NNE (25°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
Convection East Quad
Max SWS 37kts east quad 12:25:35Z
Quoting stillwaiting:
...notice the word" if" in bold letters twice,i'm still highly suspect of a cane forecast to make landfall in my area,because we always get tye threat,but never the landfall,so i doubt it until its imenent tomany false alarms to gt workd uo yet,jmo

I understand. I'm really not buying the track to FL to begin with and was only speaking on a hypothetical basis.
Quoting scott39:
NHC has Richard on thier Floater. It also looks like hes moving due S.

Yeah...he's been pretty persistent with that motion all morning.
Quoting cat5hurricane:
06Z GFS (250MB) 48 hours out gives Richard the green light for the most part to really get itself together. Conditions aloft pretty favorable.



Cloud shields are up! Richard could gradually organize more tonight into tomorrow.


The cloud shield protects a storm from entraining dry air into the core. Like I said a few days ago, dry air won't be much of an inhibitor.
Quoting robert88:
Basically what it comes down to is the faster Richard moves the better chance it will not deal with as much shear and could impact FL as a strong TS or hurricane. If the ECMWF is correct on the timing it will get smacked with strong shear and will end up a remnant LP.

That exactly what I was thinking too. It's going to come down to timing I think.
r.i on the way
Quoting reedzone:


Cloud shields are up! Richard could gradually organize more tonight into tomorrow.


The cloud shield protects a storm from entraining dry air into the core. Like I said a few days ago, dry air won't be much of an inhibitor.

No...I do not see dry air impeding his development on the level it affected Paula.
New blog :)
1167. fmbill
Kind of looks like the COC is trying to reform to the east, under the heavy convection.

Link
Quoting cat5hurricane:

No...I do not see dry air impeding his development on the level it affected Paula.


No, I'm not saying you said that, just giving my opinion on the storm as of this morning.
there we go now we are at 17-9-5
Quoting reedzone:


No, I'm not saying you said that, just giving my opinion on the storm as of this morning.

I know. I should have worded it better. My bad.
Quoting reedzone:


Cloud shields are up! Richard could gradually organize more tonight into tomorrow.


The cloud shield protects a storm from entraining dry air into the core. Like I said a few days ago, dry air won't be much of an inhibitor.
....yes it" could",verrry sneaky wording matt(joke)...imo a track into the yucatan is most likely w/no curve to the north(gom),just have to wait and see,i" could" change my thinkng on that,lol...
1172. afj3
Quoting NotJFV:

No not evil, just probably have never been thru one.
Believe me it all changes after:
your community has been ripped apart,
you're sweltering in 90 degree heat with out air conditioning,
creature comforts are all gone except for the literal creatures,
insurance payments double,
contractors take over 8 months to fix your roof (if you're lucky),
someone cuts you off at a light because, oh yeah there is no light to stop at,
you scrounge around for water and decide that maybe drinking out of the toilet isn't a bad idea,
you can see the moonlight thru your roof and under an umbrella,
you have to protect your house with a gun because looters might be out to get at the little you have left,
etc.
Yeah, are you sure? OK, enjoy!

I have been through tons of them. Tons. Bad ones, too. I don't wish damage on anyone but just to see what Mother Nature can do whips up some base curiosity in me....
Quoting stillwaiting:
IF a tc threatens the west coas of fl i will be streaming live linked thru wunderground.com,IF,...no profits intended,100%free,as im a chaser because its what i love doing..all will be welcomed!!


You obviously took the business communication the wrong way and now you're misrepresenting it.

Our stream will be free too just as it always has been.

We'll be streaming live from wherever Richard makes landfall (in the US), how about you?
1174. kwgirl
Quoting afj3:
Am I evil to say this but ever since I was a little kid, every time a hurricane brews I want it to hit where I live? I see the models are really changing....
I don't think it is evil, maybe naive. As a kid growing up in the Keys, a hurricane coming our way was great excitement. Even the adults while buying supplies in the store would wish every a "Happy Hurricane". Then Camile came barreling toward us as a Cat 5. Thank God it crossed over Cuba several times, knocking the wind out of her before she hit the keys. And we all know what happened in Biloxi while the people were having a hurricane party. When you have a loss of life and/or property, then you realize how serious these storms get. Put it down to your curiosity. But don't wish it on yourself. Maybe you should go into storm chasing. JMO
Quoting hurricanejunky:


You obviously took the business communication the wrong way and now you're misrepresenting it.

Our stream will be free too just as it always has been.

We'll be streaming live from wherever Richard makes landfall (in the US), how about you?
no,i'm just a amateur doing it for fun and to learn...
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic

90L.INVEST
19L.RICHARD

East Pacific

Central Pacific

West Pacific
98W.INVEST
16W.SIXTEEN
15W.MEGI

Indian Ocean
04B.GIRI

Southern Hemisphere