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Little change to 96L; El Salvador flood among its worst in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:55 PM GMT on October 22, 2011

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua and Honduras, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression Sunday or Monday. Visible satellite loops show that 96L has changed little in organization since yesterday. Some rotation is apparent, but the heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited due to a large region of dry air to the east, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. There are no signs of a surface circulation. Surface pressures have been falling since Thursday at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Tuesday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow for some development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east, and perhaps by proximity to the land areas of Nicaragua and Honduras. The models are less enthusiastic today about developing 96L into a tropical depression than they were yesterday. The ECMWF no longer predicts development, and the GFS and NOGAPS predict only weak development before 96L moves ashore over Honduras on Tuesday. On Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Western Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The UKMET model predicts 96L will develop into a tropical storm that moves through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico on Thursday. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, though, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. NHC gave 96L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook today. The hurricane hunter mission scheduled for today was cancelled due to the lack of development of 96L; the mission has been re-scheduled for Sunday afternoon.

97L
A broad region of low pressure near 10°N, 57°W, about 400 hundred miles east of Trinidad (Invest 97L), is moving slowly west-northwest towards the Lesser Antilles Islands. This low has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity, due to dry air to the northwest. NHC is giving 97L just a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. 97L is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and this shear is expected to drop to the low range, less than 10 knots, by Monday, when the storm will be in the Eastern Caribbean Sea. By the time 97L approaches Jamaica in the Central Caribbean in 5 - 6 days, the storm should find a moister environment, and there is a chance for 97L to develop into a tropical depression, as predicted by the NOGAPS model.


Figure 2. Rainfall in El Salvador for the 10-day period ending on Friday, October 21, at 8 am EDT. At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell during those ten days. Image credit: Hydrological Service of El Salvador.

Death toll from Central American rains rises to 105
“I want to tell the world that El Salvador is going through one of the most dramatic disasters in its history,” President Mauricio Funes said on national radio and television Wednesday night, as he appealed for international aid. A week of torrential rains across Central America have triggered extreme floods and landslides that have killed 105 people, according to media reports. El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have declared states of emergency due to the disaster. El Salvador and Guatemala have seen the worst flooding, with 34 and 38 people killed, respectively. Another 18 have died in Honduras, 13 in Nicaragua, and 5 in Costa Rica. The rains were due to a large area of low pressure that was moistened by the landfall of Tropical Depression 12-E near the Mexico/Guatemala border last week. Contributing to the record-intensity rains were ocean temperatures off the coast of El Salvador that were 0.5 - 1°C above average during the first half of October, allowing more water vapor than usual to evaporate into the air. Over the past ten days, rainfall amounts of over a meter (39.4") have fallen over a large area of southwest El Salvador (Figure 2.) At Huizucar, an astonishing 1.513 meters (4.96 feet) of rain fell in the past ten days.

I'll have a new post on Sunday.

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Latest ROSAT Update from German Aerospace Center (Oct. 22, 10:45 p.m. EDT):

"On Sunday, 23 October 2011, between 1:45 UTC (3:45 CEST) and 2:15 UTC (4:15 CEST) the german ROentgen SATellite ROSAT has re-entered Earth's atmosphere. There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth's surface."
Quoting KoritheMan:


The circulation seems a bit too small for that, though.


Do you know where they have the center approximately? Each place I look has different coordinates.
Quoting JTDailyUpdate:
Latest ROSAT Update from German Aerospace Center (Oct. 22, 10:45 p.m. EDT):

"On Sunday, 23 October 2011, between 1:45 UTC (3:45 CEST) and 2:15 UTC (4:15 CEST) the german ROentgen SATellite

ROSAT has re-entered Earth's atmosphere. There is currently no confirmation if pieces of debris have reached Earth's surface."
That would make since. Entering the Earth's atmosphere, but maybe not broken up yet. The last one fell apart at about 50 miles or so. I think I'll keep a heads up for a little while longer. You never know.
Quoting FrankZapper:
I just finished a conference call with my boy, and he said "mark my word 96 is dead in the water". I told him a lot of "enthusiasts" are wishing for one last BIG ONE. He said "good luck and Happy Halloween ".

Who's wishing?????
507. ackee
Quoting Skyepony:
Nogaps has outperformed the rest on 97L so far.
agree
Quoting WoodyFL:


Do you know where they have the center approximately? Each place I look has different coordinates.


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.
Early models. I think this was done before the current blow up of convection.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.


TY
Quoting WoodyFL:
Looks like its building cold cloud tops now.

What could this mean????? hmmmm


oh no, it could pop out an eye any second/minute/hour/day/week/month/year now. lol
Quoting KoritheMan:


Not sure. I have it at 13.5N 81.5W, though.

I'd go a tad farther north, but that's just me...Maybe a hint farther west too.

Anyways, I'm out for the night. Will check in and analyze the system in the morning.

See ya everyone.
dmax is when 2am right
Quoting AussieStorm:

oh no, it could pop out an eye any second/minute/hour/day/week/month/year now. lol


I'm not an eye guy until I see a big circle. LOL It sure has grown in the last few hours though.
The air around 96L definitely seems a lot more moist than just 12 hours ago.
when is dmax???
Quoting WoodyFL:


I'm not an eye guy until I see a big circle. LOL It sure has grown in the last few hours though.


Yes it has.
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???



there is no set time it is between sunset and sunrise where the system is located
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???


Usually right before sunrise, where the system is, when the air temp is at it's coolest. The cool air of early morning over the warm water is what feeds the convection.

There is also a Diurnal dance. A two day cycle. Once one goes off & makes a bunch of convection overnight, the next day the water is shaded by clous so the next night isn't so spectacular. Causing a noteworthy dmax every other morning.

I'm expecting a better Dmax tonight than lastnight. Not much cloud cover today.
522. 7544
Quoting chrisdscane:
when is dmax???



there is no set time it is between sunset and sunrise where the system is located

anytime after 2 am est thats when these things start to pop
.
Quoting Skyepony:


Usually right before sunrise, where the system is, when the air temp is at it's coolest. The cool air of early morning over the warm water is what feeds the convection.

There is also a Diurnal dance. A two day cycle. Once one goes off & makes a bunch of convection overnight, the next day the water is shaded by clous so the next night isn't so spectacular. Causing a noteworthy dmax every other morning.

I'm expecting a better Dmax tonight than lastnight. Not much cloud cover today.


How do you know all these things?
Quoting WoodyFL:


How do you know all these things?
She has a Yoda....
Couple of possible tornadoes looking like they might pass on the east side of Dallas, TX.
orionoid meteor shower overnight 15 or so a hr,and maybe a sat debris reentry if your lucky!!
Quoting Abacosurf:
She has a Yoda....


So that's it. Until a few months ago I thought a Dmax was a movie with Mel Gibson.
AL, 96, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting WoodyFL:


How do you know all these things?


I (mostly) gave up trashy novels for research papers. If I had a Yoda he'd read them too.

Lefty covered them pretty well in '05 as well, but really looking at a long paper draws out the many details. It's a fickle thing with many factors. I almost explained it too simply.

Here's an in depth one..

You can google the diurnal dance one, it's out there somewhere.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Shark kills US tourist in Western Australia


Hey Aus,

A little off topic but hey, it's not like it's a mad house in here LOL.... and your talking about my home mate!

Just to add to the story for all the peep's here - that's the second fatal attack within a week in Western Australia and the fourth (I think) in just over a year....

the way it looks atm wheather its a TC or not itll be very hard of 96L to miss forida
First TRMM on 96L. Great pass. Crazy amount of rain in that one area. Click pic for Quicktime.
536. 996tt
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
You don't have to write a perfect sentence to be intelligent and this is not English class.


Agree whole heartedly, but very incongruent to try and sound like your using a thesarus when sentence structure is not even high school level structure. Dude, I mean it's bad, really bad. Run ons, fragments and no clear grasp on use of punctuation. I am a JD and taught legal writing class in law school. I, however, have never stooped to bashing someone's grammer or structure. Haha, I get a slew of typos myself on my iPhone with it's intuitive autocorrect.
Quoting Skyepony:


I (mostly) gave up trashy novels for research papers. If I had a Yoda he'd read them too.

Lefty covered them pretty well in '05 as well, but really looking at a long paper draws out the many details. It's a fickle thing with many factors. I almost explained it too simply.

Here's an in depth one..

You can google the diurnal dance one, it's out there somewhere.


Appreciated! I bookmarked it. Since I am a speed reader, I can read trashy novels and still peruse technical papers. At least I'll learn something new this week.
538. 996tt
Quoting indianrivguy:


Haha, consider using good sentence structure if you're trying to sound intelligent.





Close, but seriously. Alarming that every sentence was either a run on, a fragment, or an incorrect use of punctuation. I taught legal methods (writing class in law school) as an adjunct. Perhaps my expectations are litlle high. Nope. I write lazy as hell on blogs from iPhone. Seriously, I have never criticized anyone's grammer on net before. I was just taken back by the attempted use of large words crammed into sentence structure you would expect from a 6th grader. My apologies if young.
Yes, so profound and worthless.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN BORDER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUAN/HONDURAN BORDER. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
here comes the 18 tropical depression of the season
543. 7544
Quoting allancalderini:
here comes the 18 tropical depression of the season


might just do it at dmax getting a nice shape at this hour
tstorms need to start wrapping around center
Quoting chrisdscane:
tstorms need to start wrapping around center
Either that or the center could tuck itself into the tstorms.
Could not sleep........WOW was just looking at 97L.....i never put it up on the WEB thinking that it would not mean much, but ........HECK it might become a storm as much or maybe more than 96L. Need to watch this very close as it moves thru the entire Caribbean. Its possible to get 2 named storms here the last week in OCTOBER.......that is UNREAL!!! Anyways all the graphics are now up on 97L!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Could not sleep........WOW was just looking at 97L.....i never put it up on the WEB thinking that it would not mean much, but ........HECK it might become a storm as much or maybe more than 96L. Need to watch this very close as it moves thru the entire Caribbean. Its possible to get 2 named storms here the last week in OCTOBER.......that is UNREAL!!! Anyways all the graphics are now up on 97L!!!
good morning! 60 here at 5am est, no wind to speak of, just calm...looks like we have to watch both storms later in the week huh
Good morning to all.

Euro is back!! with 96L,although not a hurricane as it was showing before.

Miami NWS Discussion

NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
AT THIS TIME GIVING IT A HIGH CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. MODEL GUIDANCE
IN GENERAL MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
COMING WEEK WITH SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN
THE WEEK PROBABLY TAPPING SOME OF ITS MOISTURE WHICH COULD ENHANCE
THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THE FRONT. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT SYSTEM IS LARGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE WEEK.

97L

morning
latest ascat is showing a closed low with 97L. It is very possible that a depression could be forming near 11N 55W
Quoting #536:

Agree whole heartedly wholeheartedly, but (it's) very incongruent to try and sound like your you're using a thesarus thesaurus when sentence structure is not even (at a) high school level high school-level structure. Dude, I mean it's bad, really bad. Run ons Run-ons, fragments and no clear grasp on use of punctuation. I am a JD and taught legal writing class in law school. I, however, have never stooped to bashing someone's grammer grammar or structure. Haha, I get a slew of typos myself on my iPhone with it's its intuitive autocorrect.
Quoting #538:

Close, but seriously (Fragment; consider revising). Alarming that every sentence was either a run on run-on, a fragment, or (contained) an incorrect use of punctuation. I taught legal methods (writing class in law school) as an adjunct. Perhaps my expectations are litlle a little high. Nope. I write lazy as lazily as hell on blogs from (my) iPhone. Seriously, I have never criticized anyone's grammer grammar on (the) net before. I was just taken back aback by the attempted use of large words crammed into sentence structure you one would expect from a 6th grader. My apologies if young.

Hope this helps... ;-)
Uh-oh:

== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

Region: EASTERN TURKEY
Geographic coordinates: 38.627N, 43.534E
Magnitude: 7.3 M
Depth: 7 km
Universal Time (UTC): 23 Oct 2011 10:41:21
Time near the Epicenter: 23 Oct 2011 13:41:21
Local standard time in your area: 23 Oct 2011 05:41:21

Location with respect to nearby cities:
19 km (12 miles) NE (43 degrees) of Van, Turkey
116 km (72 miles) N (351 degrees) of Hakkari, Turkey
130 km (81 miles) SSE (161 degrees) of Karakose (Agri), Turkey
192 km (119 miles) SSW (206 degrees) of YEREVAN, Armenia
Quoting Neapolitan:

Hope this helps... ;-)
Looks like people in glass houses :)
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AL, 96, 2011102300, , BEST, 0, 135N, 814W, 25, 1005, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Getting close to a TD.
Hello what's this behind 97L???


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 23 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS BORDER HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION EARLY THIS
MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA
THROUGH MONDAY.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

Back down to 60% again .LOL
The shallow 7.3 earthquake in Turkey (comment #555) has reportedly caused the collapse of many buildings in the large modern city of Van (pop. 600,000), which sits not too many miles from the quake's epicenter. One really has to feel for them, facing the ravages of another quake striking right at the beginning of winter...
Good morning.
The NHC keeps changing the percentages, as if it makes a difference.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The shallow 7.3 earthquake in Turkey (comment #555) has reportedly caused the collapse of many buildings in the large modern city of Van (pop. 600,000), which sits not too many miles from the quake's epicenter. One really has to feel for them, facing the ravages of another quake striking right at the beginning of winter...

A seven story building collapsed and people are trapped under the rubble.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning.
The NHC keeps changing the percentages, as if it makes a difference.


I dont understand why they do those ups and downs. And no mention of recon going this afternoon. I would have kept it at 70%.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Good morning.
The NHC keeps changing the percentages, as if it makes a difference.
From the 8 am TWD.



ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I dont understand why they do those ups and downs. And no mention of recon going this afternoon. I would have kept it at 70%.
See post 565. The last sentence says recon is scheduled for this afternoon.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

A seven story building collapsed and people are trapped under the rubble.

Yes. The USGS gives a 33% chance of between 10,000 and 100,000 fatalities, with an overall 83% chance of more than 1,000 deaths. There's an 87% chance that economic losses will amount to more than a billion dollars, and a 34% chance those losses will be between $10 billion and $100 billion.

"Red alert for shaking-related fatalities and economic losses. High casualties and extensive damage are probable and the disaster is likely widespread. Past red alerts have required a national or international response. Estimated economic losses are 1-5% GDP of Turkey."

(The USGS just lowered the magnitude to 7.2 from 7.3)

Quake
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yes. The USGS gives a 33% chance of between 10,000 and 100,000 fatalities, with an overall 83% chance of more than 1,000 deaths. There's an 87% chance that economic losses will amount to more than a billion dollars, and a 34% chance those losses will be between $10 billion and $100 billion.

O_O
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
See post 565. The last sentence says recon is scheduled for this afternoon.


They didn't put that in the TWO.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


They didn't put that in the TWO.
No. In the TWD.
No change to wind or pressure. The center has moved half a degree north, and 2/10 of a degree east. So, you know, ENE:

AL, 96, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 810W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Good morning.

The models are struggling with 96L and are unreliable at this time. Steering remains very weak and a continued slow Northward drift looks to be the scenario for today. An anticyclone now sits right over the center of the system and there is the possibility of a significant increase in development by later today if upper level conditions hold.

Quoting Neapolitan:
AL, 96, 2011102312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 810W, 25, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 225, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Close ta being a depression.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello what's this behind 97L???


Duh...I don't know?
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning.

The models are struggling with 96L and are unreliable at this time. Steering remains very weak and a continued slow Northward drift looks to be the scenario for today. An anticyclone now sits right over the center of the system and there is the possibility of a significant increase in development by later today if upper level conditions hold.



everybody seems to generally has some sort of an "S" shaped track to varying degrees and abruptness:

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
97L
Lookin' better.
t-storms still removed from llc we'll see if this changes today
Quoting interstatelover7165:
Close ta being a depression.


The 36 hours I gave this on Friday night to become a TD ends this morning. There was no Ascat pass last night but it does look very close to TD status now IMO.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Hello what's this behind 97L???



I don't know.


she talking with dry air in the GOM
Non-tropical low south of Iceland.
Quoting whepton3:


everybody seems to generally has some sort of an "S" shaped track to varying degrees and abruptness:



I would discount any track that takes it to the Yucatan at this time.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The shallow 7.3 earthquake in Turkey (comment #555) has reportedly caused the collapse of many buildings in the large modern city of Van (pop. 600,000), which sits not too many miles from the quake's epicenter. One really has to feel for them, facing the ravages of another quake striking right at the beginning of winter...

There has been a cluster of 10 aftershocks following the 7.2 Quake at Ermisler, 2.73 km (1.70 miles) S of the epicenter. Some as shallow as 2km (1.24 miles).
Here is a good resource website I got off this blog a few days ago.
Rivers.
I say it again 96L is moving ENE so what does this me well you could expect a Eward shift of the models


shear on the increase
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say it again 96L is moving ENE so what does this me well you could expect a Eward shift of the models


More NNE or NE but short term drift motion should not be focussed on IMO
trust me this we be a storm maybe a TD until there are better banding features and convection wraps around the eastern side
hmm I also noticed the convection is now starting to comeover the COC so its pulling away from the coast and movin ENE/NNE as well
Quoting chrisdscane:
t-storms still removed from llc we'll see if this changes today
To much dry air around.
center is exposed in the first visible
The "center" is easy to see now and convection sufficiently close to it to warrant an upgrade IF there is a closed low.

Quoting chrisdscane:
center is exposed in the first visible

On IR2 loop you can see the Anti-cyclone goin g to work.
Quoting chrisdscane:
center is exposed in the first visible

That's all for his morning but will return later.
hey Kman I have a feeling that this current movement is going to be a little longer that short term prob wouldn't change till maybe reaching 16/17N
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning.

The models are struggling with 96L and are unreliable at this time. Steering remains very weak and a continued slow Northward drift looks to be the scenario for today. An anticyclone now sits right over the center of the system and there is the possibility of a significant increase in development by later today if upper level conditions hold.



Morning Kman, morning all.

Your right about the models as they don't handle very slow movement well. Especially in the case of 96L where the slow movement is days long. Haven't looked yet this morning however, I would assume by looking at satellite the flight for today will be a go. I agree 96L is very close to becoming a depression.
Quoting AussieStorm:

um...... no.



um.... yes look on the SE side >.<
this should be a TD a storm im not so sure
Quoting kmanislander:
The "center" is easy to see now and convection sufficiently close to it to warrant an upgrade IF there is a closed low.


that just about matches to coordinates from ATCF 14.5 81.0
Quoting WatcherCI:
To much dry air around.

There's dry air, but 96L is still in a moist environment and is moving little.
Quoting chrisdscane:


um.... yes look on the SE side >.<

You are correct and I corrected what I said. Take a look at the IR2 loop link I posted. Notice the clockwise movement? Anti-cyclone????


Partially exposed but beginning to cover up.
morning. Roatan is currently having some pretty nasty conditions rain all night and now pouring. the winds are steady around 15-20 with higher gusts out of the north at the moment but it keeps shifting. this island is already soaked from tuesday's storm and the previous saturdays storm. flooding, mudslides and trees down. currently no power island wide. please keep me informed if you see this developing and especially where it might be heading. thanks. rg
from TWD

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND THEN
NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF HONDURAS
AND NICARAGUA THROUGH MONDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE
THIS AFTERNOON
...IF NECESSARY.
Quoting kmanislander:


The 36 hours I gave this on Friday night to become a TD ends this morning. There was no Ascat pass last night but it does look very close to TD status now IMO.
You're cutting this one close Kman...LOL
An interesting Sunday ahead to see what develops for us


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:



isn't that yesterdays map
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...

oh ok
Until 96L gets more convection near the center...not sure if recon will be paying a visit today. It's not going anywhere fast. One thing to note...the slower it moves the less threat it is for S FL and the keys.
Crown Weather has a very interesting discussion about 96L this morning.

Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

isn't that yesterdays map
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


This pass is old, but shows how slow the movement is...

Yes, as stated.

Satellite imagery from the overnight hours and into this morning is showing that thunderstorm activity has become somewhat more concentrated with Invest 96L, which is located about 150 miles to the east-southeast of the Nicaraguan/Honduran border in the southwestern Caribbean. The greatest vorticity is located to the southeast of the deepest convection, however, the best convergence is located right over the deepest thunderstorm activitiy, which is near 15.9 North Latitude and 82.5 West Longitude.

As for current environmental conditions this morning, wind shear values are running from 5 to 10 knots down near where the best vorticity lies to around 20 knots where the deepest convection is located. Given that the environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development and intensification this week, I see no reason why this wont become a tropical depression by late tonight or on Monday and then potentially a tropical storm once we get into Tuesday and Wednesday. The model guidance continues to waffle on how much this will develop and there is frankly very little agreement among the model guidance regarding how much Invest 96L will develop
crownweather
Sure enough, just as quick as it dropped it, the ECMWF is back onboard with 96L.
any idea what time for the HH?
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

14:00 is there normal time. I am happy to be corrected.

Myanmar flash floods kill more than 100—official

YANGON—More than 100 people were killed in flash floods caused by heavy storms in central Myanmar this week, an official in the military-dominated country said on Sunday.

“So far, 35 dead bodies were found out of 106 missing people. The other 71 people are also believed to have been killed in the floods,” a government official who did not want to be named told AFP.

“We haven’t found their bodies yet and are still searching.”

He added that more than 2,000 houses were swept away by the mass of water that hit four towns in the Magway region on Thursday and Friday, and some 6,000 homes were still flooded.

The official put the estimated damage from the disaster at around $1.7 million.

More than 1,500 people had sought refuge in two shelters in the flood-hit town of Pakokku, he added.

The state-run New Light of Myanmar newspaper also mentioned the flood tragedy in its Sunday edition, but kept the toll to three dead and 80 missing.

Roads, bridges, monasteries and other buildings had been damaged by strong winds and heavy rains in the region but the waters had since receded, it added.

Local officials had started distributing relief aid to the flood victims, the paper said, including providing clean water “to avoid (an) outbreak of cholera.”

They were also “engaged in repair works for collapsed bridges and damaged roads,” the report said, adding that vehicular traffic in the affected areas had “returned to normal as floods subsided.”

A monk in Pakokku told AFP on Friday that the water level in a nearby river was believed to have risen to about three meters (10 feet) high after several days of torrential rain.

“Some people, animals, houses and a monastery were swept away when the water rose up,” he said at the time.

Another Pakokku resident, who did not want to give his name, told AFP on Sunday that locals had rallied “to donate water, food and clothes” to those affected by the flash floods.

“The water level is back to normal now,” he said. “Transportation is still difficult as the bridge was destroyed and most telephone lines are still down,” the man added.

Southeast Asia has been battered by particularly severe monsoon rains this year.

According to the United Nations, more than 750 people have been killed across Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and the Philippines.

Thailand has been particularly severely hit, with more than 350 people dead and tens of thousands of families sheltering in evacuation centres.

Flood waters have also reached the northern outskirts of low-lying Bangkok and the capital is anxiously bracing for worse to come as the government said the country’s flood crisis could go on for up to six more weeks.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_late stBW.gif
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

yeah
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting chrisdscane:
any idea what time for the HH?

A. 23/1900Z

3pm eastern, in the storm. take off in an hour and a half
A 7.2-magnitude earthquake has struck eastern Turkey, causing buildings to collapse and causing deaths and injuries, officials said.

The quake hit just north-east of the city of Van, where Anatolia news agency said at least 50 people were injured.

Link
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_late stBW.gif


Pulse look at the shear in the gulf the european developes a moderate ts before those strong winds rip it to shreads. Count on another increase in moisture across sfl later this upcoming week.
96L has a lot of spin, but just can't seem to get convection to build over its center.
But we could have a T.D. on our hands. 96L looks to be pretty wrapped up at the lower levels.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Sure enough, just as quick as it dropped it, the ECMWF is back onboard with 96L.


I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again

If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.

To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me
the convection is start to cover the COC from the NNW side
Quoting roatangardener:
morning. Roatan is currently having some pretty nasty conditions rain all night and now pouring. the winds are steady around 15-20 with higher gusts out of the north at the moment but it keeps shifting. this island is already soaked from tuesday's storm and the previous saturdays storm. flooding, mudslides and trees down. currently no power island wide. please keep me informed if you see this developing and especially where it might be heading. thanks. rg

Sounds pretty Dread, there.
Keep Safe.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Lookin' a lot better.
Good morning all.

Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am not understanding why the NHC dropped the chances of development again

If you look, they have changed the percentages on the last 4 TWOs, to me that was not necessary. They should have just kept it around 60% then if they were going to go up and down like this.

To me this looks better than it ever has and we could have a depression when recon flies in today. Unless of course they cancel that too; which would not surprise me

I will scream if they cancel it, because there is a high, HIGH likelihood that we are dealing with a tropical depression right now.

Strong shear In the S GOM will be awaiting 96L in the coming days.
00Z HWRF, very optimistic.
Recon will go this afternoon as there is no remark on the contrary.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 231415
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT SUN 23 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 24/1100Z TO 25/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-145

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 24/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 24/1445Z
D. 16.6N 82.4W
E. 24/1730Z TO 24/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0318A CYCLONE
C. 25/0245Z
D. 16.9N 83.3W
E. 25/0530Z TO 25/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.

96L is going to pass over that cell of 100+ TCHP values....

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.


I will scream if they cancel it, because there is a high, HIGH likelihood that we are dealing with a tropical depression right now.

Everybody say 'Aye' if you will scream along with him if they don't.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
96L is going to pass over that cell of 100+ TCHP values....

Oh ****
623:
You did get it up there. I slept in here and fiddled about on my blog before checking USGS.
Looks bad
Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.

Invest 96L is now far enough North that even if it does move West it nearly stays over Water NOw.......Shear and conditions are getting more favorable....

Invest 97L is a real Sleeper currently....This could become a Major Cane in my opinion in the Caribbean. Wouldn't that be something in Late October or early November.

These next few days are gonna get rather interesting to say the least.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.



You haven't seen post 634? You dont have to scream.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Ex-Invest 97L may be something to worry about as we head into the middle of the week. SHIPS analyzed about 20-25 knots of wind shear over 97L, which isn't really conducive for development, but it takes the shear down to under 15 knots by this time tomorrow, and under 10 knots in 36 hours.

In addition, Relative Humidity values are expected to increase over the next 120 hours, becoming really favorable for development by the end of the period (120 hours).

Lastly, TCHP values are relatively low right now (58 as analyzed by SHIPS), and increasing pretty fast, in the 90s by 96 hours.




X intvest 97L....its an Invest Now i do beleive.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


You haven't seen post 634? You dont have to scream.

They cancelled recon yesterday a little later than now, I believe.
Quoting TampaSpin:



X intvest 97L....its an Invest Now i do beleive.

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link
Goodmorning, Tropical Atlantic has a 12 hour average of 96L moving NNE or 23 Degrees at 6mph.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
00Z HWRF, very optimistic.
,path maybe,stregth no way!!!,between shear and ladn interaction with cuba,the most fl should see is a slight increase in pops,30-40% for sfl and 20-30% for central fl imo,more fluff for the season....any news on the satellite that came down last night?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They cancelled recon yesterday a little later than now, I believe.


On todays TCPOD there is any remark of recon canceled as it occured with yesterdays TCPOD.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link


Sorry, maybe you are correct.....i seen it on other sites and just assumed it was.....thanks!
649. ackee
question will 96L NE mostion be long term or short live
Anti-cyclone developing could block shear for 96L. Possibly great.... just like Alabamas defense! Roll Tide Roll!!
Looks like a little storm. Reminds me of Midget Hurricanes Lisa and Paula.
seems like the ow is trying ot get pulled under IMO if not we'l see if t-storm wrap around it
finally 96L consalidated.. maybe now it can become a td
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

ATCF hasn't updated since 00Z, and its not on FSU's model page any more.

Link


They are still running models on 97L so i thought they still have it has an Invest........the GFDL is looking nasty.





The HWRF is also running on Invest 97L
655. ackee
I think ex 97L will start to devlop once it reach the CAENTRAL CARRB would not be suprise if this end up being a TD or TS
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
finally 96L consalidated.. maybe now it can become a td


ya i think so if you look at the visible clouds and t-stroms are trying to wrap around we'll see im sticking with my 60mph storm just south of keywest prediction
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Looks like a little storm. Reminds me of Midget Hurricanes Lisa and Paula.

You're Right:
img src=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Li sa_2010-09-24_2200Z.jpg

And:



img src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ 0/0e/Hurricane_Paula_2010-10-12_1620Z.jpg
It was a good decision to send recon as this is now organizing on a steady pace.
Quoting TampaSpin:


They are still running models on 97L so i thought they still have it has an Invest........the GFDL is looking nasty.





The HWRF is also running on Invest 97L

Hmmm...I don't know then.
Quoting interstatelover7165:

You're Right:
img src=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Hurricane_Li sa_2010-09-24_2200Z.jpg

And:



img src=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/ 0/0e/Hurricane_Paula_2010-10-12_1620Z.jpg



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:






From Wikipedia:
Less than 2 degrees latitude Very small/midget
2 to 3 degrees of latitude Small
3 to 6 degrees of latitude Medium/Average
6 to 8 degrees of latitude Large
Over 8 degrees of latitude Very large
Quoting chrisdscane:


ya i think so if you look at the visible clouds and t-stroms are trying to wrap around we'll see im sticking with my 60mph storm just south of keywest prediction
Which means nothing to us in the Caribbean. Paloma was a Cat4 over the Cayman Islands and weakened to a TD over Eastern Cuba.
Just woke up and saw there was a 7.2m in Turkey. 377k of the population felt IX level of movment and 29k felt X. I cant imagine the ammount of damage this has caused.
Windsat is mostly a miss this morning.






Below are the BAM Models.......the one going North is the BAMD so the stronger this system gets the more likely it is to go North which is generally the rule with these systems.
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.
Quoting TampaSpin:






Below are the BAM Models.......the one going North is the BAMD so the stronger this system gets the more likely it is to go North which is generally the rule with these systems.

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:





Is 96L bigger than TS Marco 2008?

Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.

Don't scare us... :(
Quoting AussieStorm:


Is 96L bigger than TS Marco 2008?


Yes, a lot bigger.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Don't scare us... :(


I try not to let it get to me for the first 48hrs, especially over the weekend.

Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.

No...NO!
Seriously, better hope it updates soon.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Which means nothing to us in the Caribbean. Paloma was a Cat4 over the Cayman Islands and weakened to a TD over Eastern Cuba.


Eastern Cuba also has some very high mountains as well
still say models are crap we need that darn c130 out there now hey how much longer till they take off
We were tracking a very dangerous hurricane entering the Gulf of Mexico and headed towards Florida six years ago.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes, a lot bigger.

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.



They won't be wrong if it does not become at least a Tropical Storm......those other models are BAMS and BAMM! The BAMM is usually for Tropical Storms while the BAMS is for systems under Tropical Storm status. We will see what happens with 96L......my guess is it will become a TS at least but, i am not sure it goes North....Heck the GFS has nearly dropped it....So I don't know!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
still say models are crap we need that darn c130 out there now hey how much longer till they take off


Around 11 AM EDT is the departure from Biloxi.
roatangardener~ Lastnight's TRMM pass showed this storm loaded with rain, especially on your side of it. You may be in for crazy rain..


Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

No...NO!
Seriously, better hope it updates soon.

Link Reconize it? It goes along with this situation.
My game got rained out so back home :-(. The sun is out now but not for long it seems.

96L looks like it has got to TD status and I would be surprised if this is not classified today. The risk with these October/November systems is that they take forever to close off then ramp up very quickly catching everyone by surprise.

I expect a renumber on this at any time whether the HH goes or not.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak or Kman.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What Da F?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

All of them sending 96L into Nicaragua/Honduras or the Yucatan are likely wrong.

100% agree
Quoting TampaSpin:



They won't be wrong if it does not become at least a Tropical Storm......those other models are BAMS and BAMM! The BAMM is usually for Tropical Storms while the BAMS is for systems under Tropical Storm status. We will see what happens with 96L......my guess is it will become a TS at least but, i am not sure it goes North....Heck the GFS has nearly dropped it....So I don't know!

true but if you look at the BAM models they always jump all over the place weak or strong it didn't matter they still do that
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak.
Maybe the ol' CATL wave?
Quoting kmanislander:
My game got rained out so back home :-(. The sun is out now but not for long it seems.

96L looks like it has got to TD status and I would be surprised if this is not classified today. The risk with these October/November systems is that they take forever to close off then ramp up very quickly catching everyone by surprise.

I expect a renumber on this at any time whether the HH goes or not.

Does it still have a chance to ramp up quickly? I mean, isn't it a little too close to land?
Highest rain rate on here is over 10 inches in the last 12 hrs..

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Thank you Capt. Obvious :)

I'm not sure what it is...Looks like it did a while back when Invest 97L was being spawned.

This is a question ask Levi or Drak.

It just doesn't look like something you'd expect at this time of the year.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Does it still have a chance to ramp up quickly? I mean, isn't it a little too close to land?


Paloma went from TS to Cat 4 over Cayman Brac and Little Cayman from the same position
Quoting interstatelover7165:

What Da F?

Earth. lol
Quoting Skyepony:
Highest rain rate on here is over 10 inches in the last 12 hrs..


I'd hate to be in Invest 96L...Didn't 95L only have rain rates of like 3 inches or something?

Intense...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Earth. lol
I know that. Africa. Isn't it a little late for Cape Verde?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

100% agree

true but if you look at the BAM models they always jump all over the place weak or strong it didn't matter they still do that


They are suppose to be a large spread difference depending on the strength of systems......that is what they are suppose to do........then they will finally come into very good agreement....Love the BAM and believe they give us different ways of looking at systems.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
I know that. Africa. Isn't it a little late for Cape Verde?

I know right? This year is so bizarre...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!


Waters are still warm. CMC likes to consolidate it a bit more to the north. Could use more instability. It's found a sweet spot of lower shear. I give it a decent chance of becoming an invest at some point an an outside chance of becoming more.
Meanwhile, in the EPAC...


Nada.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

What do you think about this?:

It's late October!
Yep I noticed that earlier, actually looks better than 96 & 97L :-P and the Atlantic is acting as though it is the peak of the Hurricane Season.
Quoting Skyepony:


Waters are still warm. CMC likes to consolidate it a bit more to the north. Could use more instability. It's found a sweet spot of lower shear. I give it a decent chance of becoming an invest at some point an an outside chance of becoming more.

It'll be an Invest, just for curiosity. I don't think it will do anything else.
The waters are definitely warm, though:
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Yep I noticed that earlier, actually looks better than 96 & 97L :-P and the Atlantic is acting as though it is the peak of the Hurricane Season.

Eh, more like July.

Quoting interstatelover7165:

Link Reconize it? It goes along with this situation.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'd hate to be in Invest 96L...Didn't 95L only have rain rates of like 3 inches or something?

Intense...


95L was actually a pretty strong system even though it never even became a T.D.
On its east side it had that really strong complex of convection.
Doppler radar indicated winds in excess of 60mph
2000 ft above the surface within this convection as it approached Fl west coast. Wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range were common with the system as it moved across South Fl during the late evening and over night.



Quoting Skyepony:
ASCAT data hasn't updated in more than 12hrs.


May be untill the end of the day before data starts again.

DUE TO A METOP SATELLITE ANOMALY, METOP INSTRUMENT DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE
FROM SENSING TIME 21:53 ON DOY 295 UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
METOP-A PLM HAS BEEN SWITCHED OFF AFTER A PLSOL ON DOY 295 22:38 UTC.
RECOVERY IS ON GOING. AVHRR, AMSU, MHS, HIRS, ASCAT, GRAS, SARR,
SARP SHOULD BE RECOVERD BY THE END OF THE DAY.
IASI AND GOME ON TUESDAY.

Link
Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!
based on satalite i think we have a td..
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!


supposed to take off at 11:30 eastern so it a wait and see



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...
Quoting stormpetrol:
Good Morning , anyone if Recon is still on for today? I see it still there , but sames confusing!


Todays TCPOD didn't have a remark about any cancellation,so is a go for this afternoon.
4.1 earthquake South of Grand Cayman last night

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


95L was actually a pretty strong system even though it never even became a T.D.
On its east side it had that really strong complex of convection.
Doppler radar indicated winds in excess of 60mph
2000 ft above the surface within this convection as it approached Fl west coast. Wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range were common with the system as it moved across South Fl during the late evening and over night.




95L, too bad it was never named.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...


We'll have to keep watch on 96L. Several of the models following this thinking and move 96L to the southwest into Central America.
Good morning.

96L has gotten better organized since yesterday. I think recon is gonna find a tropical depression.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Not much steering for 96L! What there is should move it WSW tho...


Actually that high to the W of 96L would block any motion to the WSW as 96L is too far N now IMO to be influenced by it. The high extends all the way into the Pacific. No way for 96L to get underneath it unless it builds over it to the N and does not look to be happening at this time. This set up has been around for over 24 hours.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


We'll have to keep watch on 96L. Several of the models following this thinking and move 96L to the southwest into Central America.

Yeah, several of the poor models.
Just noticed the GFDL run takes 97L from a TS to a Cat 3 in 6 hours (between 114 & 120 hrs).

Fear mongerer model!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, several of the poor models.



LMAO
So far, 96L's formation and evolution has been very similar to what we saw last year with Paula. Lets see if that continues, 96L is better organized than it was yesterday. It is entirely possible the recon will find a 35 mph Tropical Depression 18. Looks closed from what little the ASCAT caught.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Eh, more like July.

Oh yeah I know was just making a comparison, especially if we get 3 named storms from these areas this late in the season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, several of the poor models.


Currently, I have very little confidence in any of the models.
But it looks like something (T.D or T.S) will affect the Belize area in a few days. What happens after that is anyone guess.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
So far, 96L's formation and evolution has been very similar to what we saw last year with Paula. Lets see if that continues, 96L is better organized than it was yesterday. It is entirely possible the recon will find a 35 mph Tropical Depression 18. Looks closed from what little the ASCAT caught.

It really has...Looks exactly like Paula did as an invest as well.

If 96L wants to follow Paula exactly, recon should find 60 mph winds. However, I do not think that will be the case.
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