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Little change to 93L; Brazilian floods kill 42

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:18 PM GMT on June 23, 2010

There has been little change over the past 24 hours to the tropical wave (Invest 93L) located a few hundred miles south of Haiti. The storm has brought heavy rains to the waters south of Hispaniola, with radar precipitation estimates from the Puerto Rico radar of over six inches of rain in the past day. The heaviest rains have avoided land areas so far. Satellite loops show a very disorganized system, with no low-level spiral bands and only limited heavy thunderstorm activity. There are no signs of a surface circulation visible on satellite imagery. Pressures at the ground stations surrounding the storm (Bahahona and Kingston) are not falling. Water vapor satellite loops show that moist air surrounds 93L, though there is a modest patch of dry air to the storm's southwest. This dry air is likely contributing to the lack of heavy thunderstorms on 93L's west side, slowing development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 15 knots. The high wind shear associated with the strong winds of the subtropical jet stream are over the northern Caribbean, too far north to interfere with development, but close enough to provide good upper-level outflow for the storm. Visible satellite loops show high level cirrus clouds streaming away from 93L to the northeast, evidence of the upper-level outflow channel that is developing to the storm's north. Sea Surface Temperatures are plenty warm, a record 29 - 30°C. The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) currently favors upward motion over the Caribbean, which will act to increase the chances of tropical storm formation this week. The main negative for 93L continues to be the lack of spin. The University of Wisconsin 850 mb relative vorticity analysis is showing that spin at 850 mb (roughly 5,000 feet in altitude) has increased over the past day, but 93L needs to acquire additional spin before it can grow more organized. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 93L Thursday afternoon. Today's flight was canceled, due to 93L's lack of development.


Figure 1. Morning visible satellite image of the central Caribbean disturbance 93L.

Track forecast for 93L
NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning, which is a reasonable forecast. Given the storm's current lack of spin and relatively modest amount of heavy thunderstorms, the earliest I'd expect 93L to become a tropical depression would be Thursday afternoon, with Friday more likely. Wind shear is expected to be low, less than 10 knots, over the central and western Caribbean this week. Water temperatures will be warm, dry air limited, and the MJO favorable. I don't see any major impediments to the storm becoming a tropical depression by Friday, except for possible interaction with land. There is a low (less than 20% chance) of 93L becoming a hurricane in the Caribbean. Expect 93L to bring flooding rains of 3 - 6 inches to Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and southwestern Haiti today through Thursday. These rains will spread to the Cayman Islands and central Cuba by Thursday through Friday, and western Cuba and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and Saturday. The current run of the SHIPS model has 93L slowing down late this week to a forward speed of just 7 knots (8 mph) from its current speed of about 10 mph, in response to a weakening in the steering currents. A trough of low pressure is expected to swing down over the Eastern U.S. on Monday. If this trough is strong enough and 93L develops significantly, the storm could get pulled northwards and make landfall along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. This is the solution of the ECMWF, GFDL, and HWRF models. This seems like a likely solution, since recent runs of most of the models have been showing a stronger trough. If 93L stays weak and/or the trough is not so strong, the storm would get pushed west-northwestwards towards the Texas coast. This is the solution of the NOGAPS and Canadian models, which foresee a more westerly track for 93L across the Yucatan Peninsula, with the storm eventually threatening Texas by Monday or Tuesday. The GFS and UKMET models do not develop 93L. A likely landfall location is highly uncertain this point, and the storm could hit virtually anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast from South Texas to the Florida Panhandle given the current uncertainty in its development, and the strength of next Monday's trough that may steer 93L northwards.

Intensity forecast for 93L
Forecasting the amount of wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico next week is problematic. There is currently a band of high shear near 30 knots over the Gulf, and most of the models predict that this band of high shear will lift northwards, keeping low wind shear over the Gulf next week. This should allow 93L to intensify to at least a 50 mph tropical storm, as predicted by the HWRF model. The GFDL and ECMWF models are calling for 93L to become a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, and this is certainly a possibility. I expect 93L will become Tropical Storm Alex in the Gulf of Mexico next week, and give a 20% chance that it will become a hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
None of the reliable computer models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. Total accumulated precipitation in millimeters (left) for the 7-day period ending at 8am EDT June 21, 2010. The yellow colors (200+ mm, 8+ inches) are where extreme flooding was observed. Satellite image from NASA's MODIS instrument (right) for June 17, 2010, showing heavy thunderstorms over the Alagoas state of Brazil. Image credit: NASA and NOAA Climate Prediction Service.

Floods in Brazil kill dozens
Heavy rains over the past week in the northeast state of Alagoas in Brazil have led to major flooding that has killed at least 42 people. Six hundred people are still missing. This weekend rains in Alagoas and Pernambuco states are the latest in a series of devastating floods to strike Brazil this year. Since the start of Brazil's rainy season last November, 488 people have been killed by flooding and 7.5 million have been affected in 10 states. Much of the heavy rains can be blamed on El Niño, which ended in May. In April, flooding and landslides triggered by torrential rain killed at least 229 people and did $13.3 billion in damage in the Rio de Janeiro area.

It's been a bad year for floods, and there are two other major flooding disasters that have occurred in the past week. In China, the death toll has risen to 211 people, with 119 people missing, because of flooding in the southern portion of the country. France suffered a flash flood last week that killed 25.

Wind and ocean current forecast for the BP oil disaster
East to southeast winds of 10 - 15 knots will blow in the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Sunday, according to the latest marine forecast from NOAA. The resulting weak ocean currents should push the oil to the west and northwest onto portions of the Louisiana and Alabama coasts, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA and the State of Louisiana. I would expect Mississippi to have its most serious threat of oil yet early next week as these winds continue. The longer range outlook is uncertain, and will depend upon what 93L does.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool allows one to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting IKE:


What are the GFDl/HWRF based off of? That can make a huge difference in track/intensity.


Initially the NHC (atcf) position, but those models use a technique called a "bogus vortex" in which they spin up a storm at the NHC position. Has to do with the resolution difference between the GFS fields and the hurricane specific models inner nest.
Quoting MississippiWx:
I see that 93L has done nothing to improve its organization overnight. Looks like it may never develop at all. What a waste of a bunch of energy.

To only worsen matters, it looks like shear has picked up as well. Notice the flat line of convection beginning at 80W extending northeast.



Looks to me like it has tonight to organize until it hits that shear according to CIMSS. SSD shear maps show that shear band is nearly non-existent however.
Quoting FLHL2:
cmc2010062400 forcast @ 850mb vorticity is showing two systems hitting the north Gulf coast in tandem. Any thoughts about this scenario?


Very likely.

And Mississippi hit and one for Louisiana.
Cat4 and Cat2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wx, actually 93L has increased in organization. The COC has relocated into the deeper convection and could relocate even deeper. And now we have a tighter surface circulation too and the NHC has raised its odds to 40%.



You may be right. My eyes may be deceiving me early this morning and I'm just grumpy because I'm tired. LOL. I'm just being pessimistic because I'm getting tired of tracking this booger...

But if it's supposed to develop through the circulation to the west, you can forget it. I was on here late last night and didn't think it had a chance with that circulation. I thought it was getting better organized then, but it just looks crappy again (mainly convection wise.
Still nothing significant? Pfftt.


I should move to the Eastern Pacific along the southern mexican coast. In that case I won't have to envy all those storms. No, wait, I'm not supposed to be a wishcaster. But hey, it sure is hard to be one living on the east coast at this time of year.
TS tomorrow,nice geesh
Quoting StormW:


That seems right Drak...based on their own analysis from NHC, that LLfeature you are speaking of, based on the NHC Surface Anal. map, should be where the wave axis is approximately, and the TWO states the convection is east of it.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS
...AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
The interesting thing about the area southeast of Jamaica, is that it may wind up taking over. It could even be considered a new possible invest area (It's not really even the same wave), but I'm not sure how that would be handled -- probably just continuing as 93

If this area kicks up then it changes things as far as the track discussed in the article.

Mostly it means the model runs this morning are all but worthless... again.

Also the recon flight for today has been canceled.

Okay, now seems a good to to clear up the dispute with 93L so that everyone who comes on here today does not have to read the 3500 posts i just did. So...here we go.

1. 93L is RIP
2. 93L is alive and well
3. 93L has a clearly defined COC and LLC
4. 93L has no COC and no LLC
5. The model predictions are spot on.
6. The model predictions cannot be right because there is no tropical system to track!
7. Anyone under 14 needs to be quiet.
8. All people under 14 need to speak their minds
9. Everyone over 14 needs to be more sensitive.
10. Everyone over 14 needs to correct the juvies.
11. 93L will impact SF(South Florida) as a Cat 5
12. 93L will impact SF(San Francisco) as a cat 5
13. 93L will be the first of 11 named storms in the month of June.
14. 93L will not be named, nor will there be a named storm until 2014

Here's my point, opinions are like butts, everyone has one, but you don't have to behave like one.

My advice, for what it's worth, and I am over 14 (by a bunch) is to add to my list, have a little fun and have a LOT of respect.

Really rather simple guys and gals.


Quoting MississippiWx:


You may be right. My eyes may be deceiving me early this morning and I'm just grumpy because I'm tired. LOL. I'm just being pessimistic because I'm getting tired of tracking this booger...

But if it's supposed to develop through the circulation to the west, you can forget it. I was on here late last night and didn't think it had a chance with that circulation. I thought it was getting better organized then, but it just looks crappy again (mainly convection wise.


Satellite alone is deceiving, and 93L's under an anti-cyclone currently, 5-10 knot shear.
The interesting thing about the area southeast of Jamaica, is that it may wind up taking over. It could even be considered a new possible invest area (It's not really even the same wave), but I'm not sure how that would be handled -- probably just continuing as 93

If this area kicks up then it changes things as far as the track discussed in the article.

Mostly it means the model runs this morning are all but worthless... again.

Also the recon flight for today has been canceled.

3513. Drakoen
The area in the Caribbean looks like a West Pacific Monsoon
Quoting apocalyps:
TS tomorrow,nice geesh


YOu can't use my words.....HEHEHEHEHE
Quoting stillwaiting:
looks to be due south to me(any coc forming)is very near 17N,82W thats my best idea of a centers poistion..


You sure of those coordinates? You just jumped 260 nautical miles to the west from a couple of hours ago if they are (at that time you were "south of Jamaica", which I took to mean south of the center of Jamaica at 17 lat).

I'm not keeping score, just trying to keep track of the COC estimates. You are now very close to Drakoen and the satellite fix. That's a long ways away from S to ESE of Jamaica ... it will be interesting to see if we do, in fact, have two COCs.
Quoting TampaSpin:


YOu can't use my words.....HEHEHEHEHE


nice respons geesh lol
3510. asgolfr999 1:22 PM GMT on June 24, 2010

I like it :)
Quoting TampaSpin:
It appears the Wave directly behind 93L is going to overtake 93L grab its energy as it is already starting to do and it will be the one that develops......850mb vorticity is showing the energy transfer taking place....





Yep, that's what I see happening too.
3520. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Initially the NHC (atcf) position, but those models use a technique called a "bogus vortex" in which they spin up a storm at the NHC position. Has to do with the resolution difference between the GFS fields and the hurricane specific models inner nest.


Thanks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wx, actually 93L has increased in organization. The COC has relocated into the deeper convection and could relocate even deeper. And now we have a tighter surface circulation too and the NHC has raised its odds to 40%.

Quoting MississippiWx:
Best 850mb vort is now east of Jamaica:




Same close LOw as last nite.....strange that Vorticity is not showing that tho.....any ideas why they would not line up......unless something is giving us a false reading.
Alex will be a black hiurricane with so much oil in the gom.And i am no rascist.
Nice thinking of me...geeshh
wow Any body notice that massive wave that emerged from africa in the past 24 hours?
3524. hercj
Quoting StormW:


That seems right Drak, you're thinking that is...based on their own analysis from NHC, that LLfeature you are speaking of, based on the NHC Surface Anal. map, should be where the wave axis is approximately, and the TWO states the convection is east of it.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS
...AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Senior, have you got any word on recon. If I were a betting man I'd bet they don't fly. Now that I've said that they will and we will get some data. lol
Quoting Jeff9641:
Lots of convection SSE of Jamaica. I wouldn't be surpised for some sort of relocation to occur with the center later. Lots and lots of convection organizing. Once this cranks then we could see this thing really go. Tracks are shifting to the FL Panhandle which is very reasonable considering the trough is on it's way. TX threat has greatly diminished it seems with some many relocations of the COC or invest.
That's the general notion I had about that whole mess down there. It should be able to consolidate into a single vorticity maximum when either:

A. The LLC to the south and east absorbs 93L
or
B. 93L moves far enough away out of the picture (or dissipate) to allow the LLC behind it to begin to organize even further.
3526. FLHL2
"I'm not keeping score, just trying to keep track of the COC estimates. You are now very close to Drakoen and the satellite fix. That's a long ways away from S to ESE of Jamaica ... it will be interesting to see if we do, in fact, have two COCs."

That is what the last CMC run is showing, with both systems heading north in the gulf in tandem
Quoting Drakoen:
The area in the Caribbean looks like a West Pacific Monsoon


Mainly the reason why it's taking so long to organize is because of this. The only problem is that we don't have as much water to work with as the Western Pacific does. The Caribbean is, obviously, a much smaller body of water.
I'm a little surprised to see 93L failing to make it. Now comes the shear. I'm wondering if that wave behind it is going to eat it up and be the one to develop or will that hit that shear also?
Quoting lickitysplit:
I'm a little surprised to see 93L failing to make it. Now comes the shear. I'm wondering if that wave behind it is going to eat it up and be the one to develop or will that hit that shear also?


shear is not a problem.
TS tomorrow
Quoting TampaSpin:



Same close LOw as last nite.....strange that Vorticity is not showing that tho.....any ideas why they would not line up......unless something is giving us a false reading.


Hi Tampa I think something is trying get going in that mess S of Jamaica. When I see convection like that I would get worried for a COC to form anywhere in there. Claudette last was a great example it blew up in just hours SW of Tampa.
3531. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
The area in the Caribbean looks like a West Pacific Monsoon


West Pacific SSTs should definitely be able to give us an indication on how an environment such like it would behave under such high water temps and vice versa.



I posted this on my blog update on Monday with the track and color coded to what i thought 93L would do .....so far everything looks right on.....GEESH!
Quoting apocalyps:


shear is not a problem.
TS tomorrow


REALLY? I dont see that. From which one?
Quoting TampaSpin:



I posted this on my blog update on Monday with the track and color coded to what i thought 93L would do .....so far everything looks right on.....GEESH!


Nice!
3536. Drakoen
This mornings sounding out of Kingston, Jamaica showed a saturated layer from 500mb to the surface. What I find interesting is the report of 850mb winds near 70 knots. StormW, what your take on this.

3537. hydrus
Quoting Drakoen:
The area in the Caribbean looks like a West Pacific Monsoon
I was thinking the same thing yesterday.
Quoting asgolfr999:


Nice!


NICE
Quoting koolkiddvc:
wow Any body notice that massive wave that emerged from africa in the past 24 hours?


I was wondering about that wave. It does look unhindered.
Quoting TankHead93:
That's the general notion I had about that whole mess down there. It should be able to consolidate into a single vorticity maximum when either:

A. The LLC to the south and east absorbs 93L
or
B. 93L moves far enough away out of the picture (or dissipate) to allow the LLC behind it to begin to organize even further.


That's a good take.
RAMMB Visible loop doesn't really support a surface circulation south of Jamaica:

Link
Quoting IKE:


Thanks.


If you are really interested you can read through Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model Scientific Documentation. Once you understand it get back to me and explain it so I can understand it also. One interesting thing, the great grandparent of the HWRF was the NAM.
3544. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...further down in the TWO, they state the flight has been canceled for today

That makes sense. Nothing to look at. Yet.
It appears that climatology wins out with 93L. Despite all of the things that 93L had going for it (warm SST's, low sheer, upward pulse of MJO, good ventilation with anticyclone overhead) it simply could not develop. Had this been August or September I think we would be looking at a major hurricane but it is only June. I don't believe we will see Alex until July.
Let us pray...

Dear Lord

Please let Dr. Masters post any darn thing REAL soon so the slate gets wiped clean and we can start again.

Amen
Quoting TampaSpin:



I posted this on my blog update on Monday with the track and color coded to what i thought 93L would do .....so far everything looks right on.....GEESH!


tampa spin could you put the live oil feed back on your blog? at work if i view it oin the bp site they subtract it from my quota time but on your blog I can keep it up all day and go check in on it from time to time without using quota. thanks whether you do it or not tho :)
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hi Tampa I think something is trying get going in that mess S of Jamaica. When I see convection like that I would get worried for a COC to form anywhere in there. Claudette last was a great example it blew up in just hours SW of Tampa.


That area you are referring too is also where CyberTeddy just posted the graphic to show a CLOSED Surface LOw.....that is also the same place NHC has the low located i believe. ML Spin is fooling many including me at times...especially at nite.
Quoting MississippiWx:
RAMMB Visible loop doesn't really support a surface circulation south of Jamaica:

Link


Give it time! One is coming vorticity is increasing near Jamaica.
Quoting coffeecrusader:
It appears that climatology wins out with 93L. Despite all of the things that 93L had going for it (warm SST's, low sheer, upward pulse of MJO, good ventilation with anticyclone overhead) it simply could not develop. Had this been August or September I think we would be looking at a major hurricane but it is only June. I don't believe we will see Alex until July.


You will see Alex tomorrow
Quoting Drakoen:
This mornings sounding out of Kingston, Jamaica showed a saturated layer from 500mb to the surface. What I find interesting is the report of 850mb winds near 70 knots. StormW, what your take on this.



Met at NCEP did not like it.


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1331Z THU JUN 24 2010
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
DRA/72387 - UNAVB
KPP/78970 - 10142
KJP/78397 - PURGED ALL WINDS
GYM/76256 - PURGED REPORT FOR GFS...TWIN REPORT FROM 23/12Z.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP
The impatience in the blog by many members is really starting to annoy me. This is Dolly all over again.
Quoting Drakoen:
The area in the Caribbean looks like a West Pacific Monsoon


Continues to look very disorganzed this morning... Think the GFS model may have been on to something never really developing this wave.
3555. hydrus
Link. HWRF model still has a storm hitting the Panhandle of FL.
With so much convection once it goes watchout. Ttrack then should due N then NNE. The longer it sits the better chance of a more east track.
3557. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:
RAMMB Visible loop doesn't really support a surface circulation south of Jamaica:

Link


Neither does surface obs at this time
At this point I think the only options for 93L are:

1. Develop the eastern LLC
2. No development

It's had all night long to try to build something over the western one. It failed to do so, and I see no reason why it would do today what it wouldn't do last night (or at any time before). I was leaning towards "no development" yesterday because of this, but with the increase in vorticity to the NE now, it has opened up another option for itself.
Quoting asgolfr999:
Let us pray...

Dear Lord

Please let Dr. Masters post any darn thing REAL soon so the slate gets wiped clean and we can start again.

Amen


AMEN!!!!!
Quoting hurricane23:


Continues to look very disorganzed this morning... Think the GFS model may have been on to something never really developing this wave.


Could be but that rain has to go somewhere and the lastest runs have this soaking FL ie GFS model. Does anybody have the GFS precip outlook?
3561. Drakoen
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Met at NCEP did not like it.


SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
1331Z THU JUN 24 2010
12Z NCEP MODEL PRODUCTION IS ON TIME...
12Z NAM RAOB RECAP...
DRA/72387 - UNAVB
KPP/78970 - 10142
KJP/78397 - PURGED ALL WINDS
GYM/76256 - PURGED REPORT FOR GFS...TWIN REPORT FROM 23/12Z.
CRITICAL WEATHER DAY STATUS...
NCEP DOES NOT ANTICIPATE A CWD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
$$
SHIREY/SDM/NCO/NCEP


Not surprising...

Quoting StormW:


That is strange...only thing I can make of it off the top of my head, is maybe a small shear zone? I don't know if you remember, cause I can't remember which system it was, but we were all watching it here on WU, and based on the CIMSS wind shear map, upper winds were pretty much favorable, but we couldn't figure out why the system wasn't developing. I think Doc M. had posted about it that day, and whatever agency, made the statement there was wind shear along the 700 mb level, but not showing on the CIMSS site.


Yea I was wondering the same thing too.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


You sure of those coordinates? You just jumped 260 nautical miles to the west from a couple of hours ago if they are (at that time you were "south of Jamaica", which I took to mean south of the center of Jamaica at 17 lat).

I'm not keeping score, just trying to keep track of the COC estimates. You are now very close to Drakoen and the satellite fix. That's a long ways away from S to ESE of Jamaica ... it will be interesting to see if we do, in fact, have two COCs.




huh???
Quoting Drakoen:


Neither does surface obs at this time


I wonder if the graphic CyberTeddy posted is completely wrong showing the Closed Low.....very strange.
and its one two three what are we fighting for
lemme tell you i dont give a ham
next stop is ________ (cant think of anything good)
nrt, what does 'purged all winds' mean?
What a joke.

We have simply been watching a thunderstorm for 2 weeks.

Pathetic 93L, pathetic.
Drak, interesting post of the Skew-T of Kingston, Jamaica. If they are indicating nearly 70 kt winds at 850mb, then if we can get some storms with that vorticity nearby... Idk, could we could see some quick development with those winds transferring to the surface? The operative word is IF.
Quoting Dropsonde:
At this point I think the only options for 93L are:

1. Develop the eastern LLC
2. No development

It's had all night long to try to build something over the western one. It failed to do so, and I see no reason why it would do today what it wouldn't do last night (or at any time before). I was leaning towards "no development" yesterday because of this, but with the increase in vorticity to the NE now, it has opened up another option for itself.


Would this be 94L. I thought this the whole time should have been 93L but the NHC seems to be catching on to this as I stated yesterday.
Quoting twhcracker:


tampa spin could you put the live oil feed back on your blog? at work if i view it oin the bp site they subtract it from my quota time but on your blog I can keep it up all day and go check in on it from time to time without using quota. thanks whether you do it or not tho :)


If you go to my WU blog i have links there that will take you to my Website where i have them up and running with a ChatRoom .....if that does not work let me know and i will try to post them on the WU Blog..."if i can"
3571. MTWX
Quoting Walshy:
Anyone here a expert on plum trees?


I planted one and its about 6 feet tall now and the plums are weighing the limbs down. One of the branches snapped. Do I need to pull the plums off? It is a pretty new tree and plums about the size of golf-balls are slightly larger.

depend on the species of plum you got. If they are weighing the branches down too much, but the fruit is suppose to be larger than they currently are, I would suggest pulling of about half to let the remaining fruit mature to full size
I have wasted too much time waiting for this thing to develop. Bottom Line: IT NEVER WILL
At least it moistened the environment to lead the way for future waves.
Quoting TampaSpin:


I wonder if the graphic CyberTeddy posted is completely wrong showing the Closed Low.....very strange.


I've been wondering that too, I think the real closed LLC is further off to the East in that higher area of vort. Drak, when does the next ASCAT pass come out?
3574. hercj
I'm not a forecaster, more of an interested observer who is trying to learn some tropical met because it interests me. Having said that however I find it funny with this very complex system forming at the opening of a forecasted hyperactive season that NHC keeps going up with its probability for this system. Up to 40% and saying that the upper air environment is becoming more conducive for development. Point is, I in my admitted ignorance of all the complexities this system presents are in no way going to write it off.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Wx, actually 93L has increased in organization. The COC has relocated into the deeper convection and could relocate even deeper. And now we have a tighter surface circulation too and the NHC has raised its odds to 40%.



That 00Z pass was not quite 14 hours ago. Taking that against the 12Z BEST, the COC has been moving along at about 9 mph on a heading of around 250.
Quoting RecordSeason:
What a joke.

We have simply been watching a thunderstorm for 2 weeks.

Pathetic 93L, pathetic.


I agree nothing yet. We are in wait and see mode.
3577. Crawls
Here is my take on 93: The old saying regarding a watched pot not boiling. 93 knows we are watching and is waiting for us to look away THEN the burner either goes out or the boiling takes place quickly! LOL
Yea I'm tired of this 93L, Ready for something that doesnt play around and just develops and able to track. 92L was much more impressive
Quoting coffeecrusader:
I have wasted too much time waiting for this thing to develop. Bottom Line: IT NEVER WILL
At least it moistened the environment to lead the way for future waves.


tomorrow TS.Be happy,nice....geesshhh
Quoting CybrTeddy:
nrt, what does 'purged all winds' mean?


Not used in the model run, as if they never received the report.
3581. Drakoen
93L still looks located here to me. Run the loop and the speed it up and you can definitely see a low level swirl.
Sunday you will see the eye of the monster Alex...........beware nice geesh
Quoting Crawls:
Here is my take on 93: The old saying regarding a watched pot not boiling. 93 knows we are watching and is waiting for us to look away THEN the burner either goes out or the boiling takes place quickly! LOL


My thought, exactly. This thing is a huge TEASE.
Yes, I think we see Alex tomorrow...today he's just taking a peek at the south coast of Jamaica.
Quoting stillwaiting:




huh???


17N, 82W is a long ways from the south of Jamaica. More like approaching the western tip of Cuba on a longitude basis. Google Earth ... it's a great tool.
We just have too much vorticity duking it out. It seems like 93L has had an elongated area of vorticity its entire lifespan. The area of vorticity to the west is now inferior in strength to the one ENE of Jamaica. I can see a little spin in the clouds there on Visible as well. I also see spin in the clouds to the west and south west of Jamaica. 93L's best chance would be to take advantage of the vorticity to the ENE of Jamaica.

3587. aquak9
We have simply been watching a thunderstorm for 2 weeks.

good one.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Would this be 94L. I thought this the whole time should have been 93L but the NHC seems to be catching on to this as I stated yesterday.
I don't know. Originally the designation of 93L referred to the whole area of disturbed weather around the wave. If it reforms to the NE, they might keep the designation the same and just say that it reformed its LLC. That is what they do when a TD or TS pulls that. If that's what it does, then we're looking at a TD anyway as soon as they are satisfied with the persistence. It might be confusing and almost pointless to some to give a different invest # to something so close.
Quoting RecordSeason:
What a joke.

We have simply been watching a thunderstorm for 2 weeks.

Pathetic 93L, pathetic.


True. We should have been tracking the bow echo near the Great Lakes last night. At least that was producing Tropical Storm force winds...

What I keep trying to figure out is why can't a "new" LLC form near where the bursts of convection have been concentrated? Why does it *have* to be this swirl way out west? I often read about how COCs change even once a storm has reached depression status. The convection has been fairly consistent between 75-80W and 14-18N... seems logical to me that if this thing were to develop, that it would need to be somewhere within this area (absent a ton of sheer pushing it all east, in which case it'd be unlikely to develop anyway).
The new wave coming off of Africa appears to already have an anti-cyclone above it.

3593. Drakoen
Quoting StormW:
Mother Nature tryin' to sneak one in on us while we watchin' 93L




Impressive wave
3594. hercj
Storm is this wave a player?
Quoting Drakoen:
93L still looks located here to me. Run the loop and the speed it up and you can definitely see a low level swirl.


Yep I see it, but it's so damn far ahead of the convection its ridiculous. Looks like that spin is gonna be coming ashore in the not too far future.
3597. Drakoen
As more visible images come out I see nothing that suggests the is a low level center south of Jamaica. The low level circulation is east of Honduras as predicted by the ECWMF model where it is expected to slow down and potentially organize once the heat/convection catches up.
3599. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
We have simply been watching a thunderstorm for 2 weeks.

good one.


LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:


I wonder if the graphic CyberTeddy posted is completely wrong showing the Closed Low.....very strange.


That graphic is produced from satellite derived winds, a combination of AMSU, GOES Infared, GOES Cloud Drift and Scatermeter winds. Most of the time one or more is missing from the analysis such as the Scat winds so it depends on the "weight" applied to each source of info to derive the graphic.
Still, even if 93L never does development we're in for an active season. I noted at the end of the ECMWF's run, it develops a tropical cyclone off the East Coast and its been consistent.

shows the low at 168 hours off the East Coast.


At 192 hours


At 240 hours.


Thoughts?
Now that the paint has dried I think I'll go outside and watch my grass grow.
3603. hydrus
Canadian GEM model...Link
3604. hercj
Quoting StormW:


The one I just posted?

Yeah, the one off Africa last night.
3605. Inyo


This site already has my credit card info (because i am a member) but honestly if they asked for a credit card to verify age, I'd quit. That is a huge invasion of privacy and a stupid idea. This message board is just that - a message board, and like anything else, when you throw away freedom for control you get crap.
Quoting weatherman566:


True. We should have been tracking the bow echo near the Great Lakes last night. At least that was producing Tropical Storm force winds...



I saw that! That nice was something when it blew through Chicago.
3607. Drakoen
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Now that the paint has dried I think I'll go outside and watch my grass grow.


LOL
Just watching one of the rover cams, seems they are following long cracks in the gulf floor!!! ... ???

http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam
3609. beell
Quoting StormW:


That seems right Drak, you're thinking that is...based on their own analysis from NHC, that LLfeature you are speaking of, based on the NHC Surface Anal. map, should be where the wave axis is approximately, and the TWO states the convection is east of it.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THE ADJACENT
WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOST OF
THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING TO THE EAST OF THE
WAVE AXIS
...AND THE AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MISSION TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OR WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Could very well be that the eastern most wave axis is along 75W with its apex near 18N. Even though current analysis puts this one along 70W. Cloud motion is to the NW east of the axis. SW on the W side. The other, along 82W with its apex near 20N.

The 700mb ridge is slanted from SE to NW and both waves along for the ride.
I am at the point that 93L will never get is act together...low-level swirl is so disorganized and the convection is far east of the center. This thing will probably push into the Yucatan and die.
Well, everyone has assumed that once it hits the Yucatan it will just fizzle.

That isn't always the case, I have seen a few systems actually intensify over land on the Yucatan.

So just because the center hits land in the Yucatan doesn't mean we should write it off entirely.
Quoting Drakoen:
As more visible images come out I see nothing that suggests the is a low level center south of Jamaica. The low level circulation is east of Honduras as predicted by the ECWMF model where it is expected to slow down and potentially organize once the heat/convection catches up.


Yeah, that zoomed in visible that you posted was pretty nice. What do you think about the area of higher vort to its northeast, though?
GFS latest run continues to miss a 70 mph TS in the EPAC, Darby. Poor resolution, thats why its not picking up on 93L.
Here is the visible link to 93L

If you speed it up as fast as you can, it appears a LLC is located just off the Jamacia SouthCentral Coast....don't know for certain tho......that would also be where Vorticity is also observed

Quoting Jeff9641:


Could be but that rain has to go somewhere and the lastest runs have this soaking FL ie GFS model. Does anybody have the GFS precip outlook?


Some that i use.

1-DVD's Main Meteorological Model Page
2-NCEP precip charts
3-HPC quantitative precip forecasts
4- Coolwx precip maps




Quoting txag91met:
I am at the point that 93L will never get is act together...low-level swirl is so disorganized and the convection is far east of the center. This thing will probably push into the Yucatan and die.


downcaster
Quoting txag91met:
I am at the point that 93L will never get is act together...low-level swirl is so disorganized and the convection is far east of the center. This thing will probably push into the Yucatan and die.<

Which has been the GFS forecast for a few days now.
3619. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


Yeah, that zoomed in visible that you posted was pretty nice. What do you think about the area of higher vort to its northeast, though?


I don't think anything of it. It is not showing any signs of bending the surface flow.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, even if 93L never does development we're in for an active season. I noted at the end of the ECMWF's run, it develops a tropical cyclone off the East Coast and its been consistent.

shows the low at 168 hours off the East Coast.


At 192 hours


At 240 hours.


Thoughts?


GFS also at the end of its run predicts this. But its resolution is so poor, I'm not sure whether or not to believe it.

3623. 900MB
Quoting StormW:
Mother Nature tryin' to sneak one in on us while we watchin' 93L





Storm- What do you make of that little blob ahead of it at 7.5N 37.5W?
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Now that the paint has dried I think I'll go outside and watch my grass grow.
Best way to describe this non situation!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Still, even if 93L never does development we're in for an active season. I noted at the end of the ECMWF's run, it develops a tropical cyclone off the East Coast and its been consistent.

shows the low at 168 hours off the East Coast.


At 192 hours


At 240 hours.


Thoughts?


What is that off the east coast of Florida?
GFS misses Darby, but its been dead on for all the invests in Atlantic
both never happen!
Quoting CaneWarning:


What is that off the east coast of Florida?


A low from a old front. It is the front that is coming later this weekend.
Alex will eat BP alive
Quoting Inyo:


This site already has my credit card info (because i am a member) but honestly if they asked for a credit card to verify age, I'd quit. That is a huge invasion of privacy and a stupid idea. This message board is just that - a message board, and like anything else, when you throw away freedom for control you get crap.


Plus it doesn't keep anyone under age out. When I was under age 18 and a website wanted credit card information for age verification, I'd just go swipe a card from my dad's wallet. :)
Quoting CaneWarning:


What is that off the east coast of Florida?


Thats what I was talking about. It appears to either be a sub-tropical cyclone or a tropical cyclone. I could be wrong, but the GFS also predicts it.
Quoting StormW:


No.



If a COC does form S of jamaica any thought on intensification?
In six days one half of the GOM will be oil and the other half will be Alex.Nice for visitors.
I'm not an expert but I think the Jamaica spin will dominate to LL tomorrow.
hello all, i don't post much unless i have something i think is of interest. On the local news radio here i heard them saying Thad Allen said they need about 6 days to evacuate the BP oil spill site and get all ships and workers to safety before a approaching storm.

Seems like a long time but i know less about oil drilling then hurricane prediction
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats what I was talking about. It appears to either be a sub-tropical cyclone or a tropical cyclone. I could be wrong, but the GFS also predicts it.


Very interesting.
3640. Drakoen
As far as I am concerned, the 93L has been doing what the most reliable model has been showing: the ECMWF. Moving westward in the Caribbean getting close to the coast of Honduras and slowing down. The ECMWF has always showed it getting this close to central America before heading northward; the model is one of the primary models I have been using with this system.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Very interesting.


Could see it by June 30th if that verifies.
Quoting hurricane23:


Some that i use.

1-DVD's Main Meteorological Model Page
2-NCEP precip charts
3-HPC quantitative precip forecasts
4- Coolwx precip maps






Thank you!
3643. IKE
Accuweather calling for the wind shear west and NW of 93L to weaken...Link
Quoting RecordSeason:
Well, everyone has assumed that once it hits the Yucatan it will just fizzle.

That isn't always the case, I have seen a few systems actually intensify over land on the Yucatan.

So just because the center hits land in the Yucatan doesn't mean we should write it off entirely.
Which system intensified over the Yucatan??? I have never seen one intensify there.
Well just want to sign on real quick today and admit I was wrong about the HH flight yesterday...was pretty certain they were going to go but 93L lost too much over night. Ill eat my crow. Hopefully they go today. These tracks are starting to make me a little nervous.
yes I can see it now TampaSpin LLC near 17.4N 77.0W
What is the deal with all of the models having useless initializations?

The CMC starts with Celia, a re-strengthening category 2 hurricane, a being little more than a tropical wave.

Meanwhile, the GFS doesn't even recognize a 70mph Darby.
3649. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather calling for the wind shear west and NW of 93L to weaken...Link


Yup
3650. beell
Quoting StormW:


No.



Gee Storm, I'm not sure if I understand your answer, LOL.
Thanks.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could see it by June 30th if that verifies.


Things have to start moving for that to happen. I'm still not sure I believe 93L will do anything.
3652. IKE
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
Well just want to sign on real quick today and admit I was wrong about the HH flight yesterday...was pretty certain they were going to go but 93L lost too much over night. Ill eat my crow. Hopefully they go today. These tracks are starting to make me a little nervous.


Recon canceled for today.
Quoting apocalyps:


downcaster

lol
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Thats what I was talking about. It appears to either be a sub-tropical cyclone or a tropical cyclone. I could be wrong, but the GFS also predicts it.


It looks like a cold front pushing into the Southern United States with an area of low pressure developing from it and moving rapidly to the Northeast. Nothing to worry about. I doubt it is even tropical.
Quoting Drakoen:


Yup


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.
Quoting IKE:


Recon canceled for today.


They run out of oil,no flight today
3659. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.


I agree.
John Hope's ghost has been haunting this system. That is why we have no seen any organization so far.
3661. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)


Pressure is falling

AL, 93, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 165N, 796W, 25, 1008, WV
Quoting weatherman566:


It looks like a cold front pushing into the Southern United States with an area of low pressure developing from it and moving rapidly to the Northeast. Nothing to worry about. I doubt it is even tropical.


Yup I agree. I just posted that. Trough in place for awhile starting later weekend across FL.
New blog up !
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather calling for the wind shear west and NW of 93L to weaken...Link

always inaccuweather i see lol
Darby now a hurricane

EP, 05, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 127N, 983W, 65, 990, HU

Celia a major again

EP, 04, 2010062412, , BEST, 0, 123N, 1133W, 100, 963, HU
Quoting IKE:


I agree.


tomorrow is the day.
Come on beautifull Alex
Quoting extreme236:


I'm assuming if 93L's gonna develop, it's gonna really start happening tomorrow or Saturday at the latest.


You are right.
3670. hydrus
Quoting CaneWarning:
John Hope's ghost has been haunting this system. That is why we have no seen any organization so far.
Good. I hope he keeps up the good work.
Quoting apocalyps:


tomorrow is the day.
Come on beautifull Alex


So...apocalyps...I get this feeling that you're thinking this is going to become TS Alex tomorrow......correct me if I'm wrong.

:-)
3672. 900MB
Been out of the loop for the past 24 hours, but looks like I haven't missed much.

Can someone just recap if we are expecting the blob at 16N/77.5W or the blob at 15.5N/74W to be the blob that will finally spin? Thanks!
Just zoomed in on Visible that was only 15minutes old on loop and It does appear that a Surface LOw is trying and i say TRYING to develop just to the SOUTH Central of Jamacia.

16N 77W

Quoting IKE:


Recon canceled for today.

That stinks. I wouldnt be surprised if this system hits my house since everything is breaking at the moment in my house.
3675. 10Speed
We worry about 93L but nothing is going to come up out of the Carib to the GOM until some highs to the north move off. It's understandable to have extra GOM concern because of the oil, etc. but if I was in the Carolinas I'd start paying attention to the Atlantic weather closely in a few days or so.
Thad Allen said, he needs 6 days to get everyone off of the Gulf working the oil spill and for BP to do what they need to do if a storm is coming. I wish them luck with this storm or any other storm this year! They are in contact with the National Hurricane Center.
Morning all. Looks like 93L's low level circulation is still pretty much a naked swirl. I'm very skeptical about anything becoming of this. It has had ample time and yet there is still virtually no deep convection associated with it. All of the heavy convection is well east of this. I expect something at the mid-levels might develop due to persistent thunderstorm activity...some where to the east/ east-southeast of Jamaica. Multiple vortices (mid/ lower), as well as dry air intrusion yesterday and the anticyclone which for a short time slightly sheared the system, all contributed to 93L not getting its act together more quickly. I think it’s still a wait an see scenario, as always.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
Just watching one of the rover cams, seems they are following long cracks in the gulf floor!!! ... ???

http://globalwarming.house.gov/spillcam


Remember that this well was drilled in the Miocene fold belt off the Louisiana coast...the bottom looks like that anyway, whether someone had drilled a well or not
Quoting jazzygal:
Thad Allen said, he needs 6 days to get everyone off of the Gulf working the oil spill and for BP to do what they need to do if a storm is coming. I wish them luck with this storm or any other storm this year! They are in contact with the National Hurricane Center.


Maybe thats the real reason the dome was lifted....?
93L has no shortage of heat to work with on its expected path of travel. From UM.

Hmm, I think we could all agree with Mr. Bastardi on this one!

Joe clarified that competing areas of low pressure in the Caribbean, combined with high pressure building to the north could give birth to a tropical cyclone in a similar way typhoons form in the western Pacific.
Quoting CaneWarning:


Plus it doesn't keep anyone under age out. When I was under age 18 and a website wanted credit card information for age verification, I'd just go swipe a card from my dad's wallet. :)


PERV!

LOL
Quoting Floodman:


Remember that this well was drilled in the Miocene fold belt off the Louisiana coast...the bottom looks like that anyway, whether someone had drilled a well or not

Some of them that they were following look like openings in silt. Thought maybe there was a dome growing under that area. been a commercial diver since "77".
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.
The Ocean Intervention III ROV 2 has following these fissure looking things in the silt around the Deep Water Horizon all morning.
Link
One of them looks like an anchor drag, but some they were looking at earlier look like cracks in soft mud.
Quoting 69Viking:
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.


Hope was an incredible man and boy did he love the tropics.

Thats when the Weather Channel had some merit.

I remember how we used to joke that he was the one getting all the girls pregnant on TWC...LOL
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

Some of them that they were following look like openings in silt. Thought maybe there was a dome growing under that area. been a commercial diver since "77".


When I asked some of my more geologically educated friends (I had the same idea a few weeks back) I was told that the "fractured" or "cracked" appearnce of the seabaed in this area was "normal" and that with the pressure being relieved by the tremendous gusher in the area a dome would likely not build...on the other hand, they could be completely wrong, but I don't think so; remember that the oil reservoir is actually another 8000 feet below the seabed, so a dome building would be pretty damned unlikely
Quoting 69Viking:
Did you guys know this about John Hope?

In 1969, Hope's daughter graduated from high school, so he added her name to the list of names to be used for hurricanes that year (at that time, there was no organized list of assigned names to be used, the only requirements were that the names had to be female – male names were not used at that time – in alphabetical order, and not otherwise retired). He had no way of knowing at the time that the storm that would take his daughter's name – Camille – would become one of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes to ever hit the United States when it slammed into Mississippi as a Category five hurricane. His daughter Camille is married to U.S. Congressman Jim Marshall of Georgia.


Perhaps he did know...I have a daughter that would make a great hurricane; beautiful, powerful and oh so wonderfully destructive...LOL
I don't know what seems longer, John Isner's fifth set or 93L's formation into a TD.