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Little Change to 91L; Amateur Storm Chaser Killed in May 31 El Reno, OK Tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:59 PM GMT on June 04, 2013

There has been little change to tropical disturbance 91L in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico and Western Caribbean. Satellite loops show a large area of heavy thunderstorms with poor organization, and there is no evidence of an organized surface circulation trying to form. Wind shear is a high 30 knots, and is forecast to remain high, 20 - 30 knots, today, so any development should be slow to occur. However, wind shear is predicted to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, on Wednesday, which should give 91L a better chance to organize. NHC is giving the disturbance a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Thursday. I put these odds higher, at 40%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to fly into 91L on Tuesday afternoon, but this flight will likely be cancelled. Regardless of whether or not 91L develops into a tropical depression, heavy rains will be the storm's main threat. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Western Cuba, and South Florida can expect 5 - 8" of rain from the disturbance over the next four days. Heavy rains from 91L may spread up the U.S. East Cost late this week. The computer models predict that 91L should stay large and poorly organized, and if it does develop, it will be difficult for it to get any stronger than a 45 mph tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 91L.


Video 1. The May 31, 2013 El Reno, Oklahoma EF-3 tornado as filmed from a commercial tornado tour led by Tempest Tours. This is one of the most impressive videos I've ever seen, from a meteorological standpoint, of a developing tornado. It appears that the chasers got closer to the tornado than they liked, as evidenced by the honking horns you hear, telling people to leave, a few minutes into the video.

Amateur storm chaser killed in Friday's El Reno tornado
Tornado scientist Tim Samaras and his two chase partners, Paul Samaras and Carl Young, were killed Friday by an EF-3 tornado that hit El Reno, Oklahoma. It has now been revealed that the storm killed an amateur storm chaser, Richard Charles Henderson. According to an article in The Oklahoman,

From his pickup, amateur storm chaser Richard Charles Henderson took a cellphone photo of the first tornado Friday and excitedly sent it to a friend. Minutes later, that tornado would kill him.

“That was the end of his life right there,” said the friend, George “Sonny” Slay. “He said, ‘I'm having fun,'” Slay recalled Monday. “He told me he was riding around … chasing the storms …. I said, ‘You better quit that!'
“And, then, I guess he was en route to the position that he got in because he said, ‘There goes Channel 9!' He said, ‘You might even see me on TV.' And, then a few seconds later, he said, ‘Oop, there's Channel 5!'”

Slay said the picture came in at 6:05 p.m. About 10 minutes later, Slay heard a loud popping noise over the phone. Henderson cursed, and then asked Slay if he had heard the sound.

“I said, ‘Yeah, I heard it. What was it?' And he said, ‘It's debris hitting my pickup.' I said, ‘You better get your ass out of there.' Then the phone went dead.

Henderson, of Hinton, was one of at least 18 people who died because of Friday's tornadoes and storms. His body was found near El Reno.


Henderson's death underscores the dangers of storm chasing by people who don't know what they are doing, and is also likely the unfortunate consequence of the huge amount of dramatic media attention that storm chasing has received in recent years.


Video 2. The view from my veteran storm chaser Chris Novy's D-TEG dashcam as he accidentally drove his storm chasing vehicle into a swollen creek, nearly killing him.


Figure 2. Chris Novy posted on his Facebook page this image of the bridge he drove off. Note the guard rail that stops short of the plunge he took. I hope the road commission extends this guard rail to prevent a future accident!

Veteran storm chaser almost killed in Friday's El Reno flash flood
There is also news that another veteran storm chaser, Chris Novy, nearly died in Friday's storm--but from a flash flood. As Novy recounted in Mike Smith Enterprises Blog,

"I approached a flooded road and made a quick U-turn rather than driving [all the way] into the water. This was a naturally smart move. Unfortunately my turn resulted in me plunging off a hidden embankment and splashing nose-first right into a swollen creek where I sunk straight to the bottom, I traveled several hundred feet underwater with the car quickly filling up. At one point I was completely surrounded by water and just holding my breath in the darkness. Somehow the driver-side and passenger-side windows broke and I was flushed from the vehicle. I surfaced after a bit and found myself racing down the creek. A cop called out to me and I was able to swim to him and his life-saving grab.

Analysis:
It probably would have been best for the police car (seen right before my turn) to have completely blocked the road the emergency lights on. As it was, the scene seemed like just a water hazard but probably should have been clearly marked as a no-go zone.

I should have come to a complete stop and taken more time to evaluate the situation. Ideally I should have just put it into reverse and slowly backed out. I took a dangerous situation and made it even worse leaping before I looked.

Lessons learned:
Turn around, don't drown!"



Figure 3. Portlight volunteers hard at work in Moore, Oklahoma, after the devastating May 20, 2013 tornado.

Portlight helping victims of Oklahoma tornadoes, and hosting the Getting It Right Conference
I had the pleasure last night of giving the welcoming speech to the attendees of the "Getting It Right Conference" in Atlanta, hosted by my favorite disaster relief charity, Portlight.org.The conference has brought together over 125 disaster response professionals to discuss shelter and transportation accessibility for people with disabilities. There will be live blogging from the conference on Portlight's wunderground blog, 8am to 5pm Tuesday, and 8am to 11am on Wednesday. Check it out! It's remarkable how far Portlight has come since its humble beginnings in September 2008, when wunderground members Patrick Pearson and Paul Timmons put together a grass-roots effort to help out victims of Hurricane Ike. Portlight has now dispensed over $2 million in aid to the needy, and hundreds of volunteers have worked on various Portlight projects since 2008. Indeed, Portlight volunteers are now hard at work helping victims of Oklahoma's devastating May tornadoes. Keep up the great work!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Dakster:
Bluestorm5 - There is always going to be another major storm on the horizon. As bad as Andrew was down here, if another major Hurricane comes rocking through South Florida, it will be the latest event to talk about, until it too, is replaced.

It isn't unrealistic to think that there is more, in store, for Moore, OK in the future.
I know Moore is never going to be tornado proof. There will be more for Moore and it's not unthinkable that an EF5 will destroy OKC one day. However, I can't see a tornado any stronger than what happened at El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013. However, anything is possible like you said.
Quoting Andrebrooks:
Do you think the wind shear is gone.Do you think their will be a special advisory in 30 minutes.

Andre, have you heard of the word "troll"? You should look it up if you haven't.
Quoting Tazmanian:




oder up


Event is not even over. However, I am with Tyler. I don't see this becoming 50+ mph storm. However I'm half/half on this becoming a tropical storm unlike last night when I had 40%.
Maybe not stronger, but just as, if not more destructive in the future.

Stopping tornado's there is like stopping hurricanes in the Atlantic.
Re: Chasers dying and injured.

While I know your heart is in the right place, Doc M, the article does not speak to what degree of knowledge this "amateur" had. I read that article in The Oklahoman yesterday. I didn't link it in my blog because it does not state anything one way or another about this particular storm chaser's experience - chasing. "Amateur" means unpaid. A 35-year-old Okie from Hinton (if he was) had some degree of knowledge of tornadic supercells, you can bet on that, and there is no indication how many times he'd chased one. The Storm ruled amateur and professional chasers alike. And the storms always will.

According to law enforcement Friday night, seven people perished in vehicles in that area. Last I checked, still one vehicle death around El Reno/Union City unidentified. Might be another chaser.

People here in central OKlahoma are running scared to the point some in OKC ran out of their homes and took shelter, where they had before, under bridges in drainage canals, and they drowned when flash flooding hit. They're still looking for bodies.
Quoting Dakster:
Tyler - Why are you putting a 'max' on the storm?

It would be unrealistic to think it could be a Cat 2 or higher storm (at this point). But not a low end Cat 1 or a high end TS. It doesn't take much -and while I haven't looked at the NHC wind probs, I doubt that those levels are truly zero %.

For it to be a Hurricane, it would need 74 mph winds and the MOST IMPORTANT thing, a closed Eyewall. This thing would never be able to pull that off, it would have to have convection on its west side, which it has never had in it's existence. Okay I'll give in that it could become a 60 mph storm, because Im mean even Debby got to there but this system is definitely not promising to become any kind of Strong Tropical Storm and Especially not a Hurricane. Low Level Invest-60 Mph Tropical Storm is the range that this thing is capable of being.
Quoting sar2401:

Andre, have you heard of the word "troll"? You should look it up if you haven't.




LOL



did you no hes a 15 year old?
And Dakster, you're right those wind probabilities aren't 0% they're 1% or <1%
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
we will be receiving the brunt of this system regardless of track. Just think back to last year's little ms debby event. The best case for Tampa would be for the low to form quickly today and come into Florida south of the bay, which is just not going to happen. Don't worry yourself largo, it will rain lol


Forecast rainfall by the GFS was high with Debby as well and although the GFS did well with the path of Debby it was wrong in that it kept its heavy precip bullseye offshore. I expect the results to be similar as the heaviest rain will be more farther removed from the center than the models think it is just as it it has so far.
Quoting TylerStanfield:
Alright now Im out.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

For it to be a Hurricane, it would need 74+ mph winds and the MOST IMPORTANT thing, a closed Eyewall. This thing would never be able to pull that off, it would have to have convection on its west side, which it has never had in it's existence. Okay I'll give a 60 mph storm, because Im mean even Debby got to there but this system is definitely not promising to become any kind of Strong Tropical Storm and Especially not a Hurricane. Low Level Invest-60 Mph Tropical Storm is the range that this thing is capable of being.


Fair enough.... Thanks for your thoughts behind it. I agree that at the moment it is the highest probable outcome. Absolutes in weather are not always good things and mother nature tends to prove weather forecasters wrong.
Quoting Dakster:


Fair enough.... Thanks for your thoughts behind it. I agree that at the moment it is the highest probable outcome. Absolutes in weather are not always good things and mother nature tends to prove weather forecasters wrong.

It was a pleasure discussing it with you :)
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Glad I could Discuss with you :)


That is why we are here. Have a good rest of your day.
Quoting Tazmanian:




what do you ues too look up the web evere day


do you ues IE chrome or firefox?



if you ues IE i would get rid of it and ues chrome its the best and faster then IE


I use Chrome and Firefox and it seems to me....the blog, IMHO is the slowest I have ever seen it, with few exceptions.
I now feel more confident that we may NOT see andrea out of this system.

Surface circulation is currently utterly exposed and convection is waning. Will have to see what the next 36 hours brings but I don't expect any more than a TD out of this.

Certainly the main issue will be rainfall, but the sfc circulation is visible meandering to the southwest at present on visible satellite with the mid-level circulation collapsing altogether.


We will see but it could easily dissipate in 24 hours. Too much shear.
Not sure any of the discussions cleared up a lot but here's one :)

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
326 PM EDT TUE JUN 4 2013

THE GENERAL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THE SAME WITH THE TROUGH
PREVAILING OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS AND EXPECTED FORMATION OF A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE TROUGH AND LOW WILL SHIFT
NE AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SE UNITED
STATES LATER IN THE WEEK. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A LOW FORMING ON THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 23N88W.
THIS FEATURE...OR THE ONE THAT DOES BECOME THE MORE DEFINITIVE
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL HAVE A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

AS FOR MODEL DEPICTIONS...AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
EXPECTED TO FORM. THE GFS IS APPEARING SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH
REGARD TO THE WIND FIELD RELATED TO THE UPCOMING LOW FEATURE. THE
UKMET CONTINUES TO BE MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE WINDS AND
RESULTING SEAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BUT HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE FUTURE
TRACK OF THE EXPECTED LOW FEATURE IN COMPARISON TO THE OTHER
GLOBAL MODELS.

THE MAIN POINT HERE IS THAT IT IS THAT ONCE THE LOW HAS DEVELOPED
IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT IT WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH LATER IN THE WEEK. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...EXPECT
SQUALLY CONDITIONS WITH TSTMS PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AT
TIMES ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WILL HIGHLIGHT FUTURE FORECAST
CHARTS AND TEXT PRODUCTS WITH "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
POSSIBLE."
i personally dont see daytona beach getting anything but our typical afternoon t storms from this system as it maybe winds up a little bit more but heads way to north to give east coast florida to much
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Re: Chasers dying and injured.

While I know your heart is in the right place, Doc M, the article does not speak to what degree of knowledge this "amateur" had.


It doesn't, I agree. But (as I stated earlier) the "Reed Timmer"-ization of tornado chasing has to be curtailed. A number of the "ameteurs" would not have been motivated to do what they do without glorification from tv (Discovery Channel, TWC), movies (Twister), and that all important "15 seconds" of fame called "Youtube". Plus, that there is a market for these videos - ahem, StomChasers.com (an example of the "Reed Timerization") who had a "roll-in-the-hay" - is ridiculous.

What explanation is there, if you are out there doing "research", do you have cameras pointing at you in the car recording?

The dramatization - at this point "over-dramatization - of storm chasing has now reached the equivalent of "tornado porn".

Quoting Bluestorm5:
I know Moore is never going to be tornado proof. There will be more for Moore and it's not unthinkable that an EF5 will destroy OKC one day. However, I can't see a tornado any stronger than what happened at El Reno, Oklahoma on May 31, 2013. However, anything is possible like you said.
Plenty have been that strong. This El Reno EF5 just happened to have an OU research team around to prove the true winds.

BTW, this is the third EF5 in what might be called the OKC Metro area since May 24, 2011. It would take an EF5 20 or more miles wide to "destroy OKC." Tornadoes are not like hurricanes. Destruction within, say, a mile-wide path is what you see in news photos and vids. Everything appears normal if you look to one side of the path or the other. Some things can even look relatively normal within the path of a violent tornado.
Quoting CaribBoy:


Just a little bit more south please!
What wave and what is gonna happen?
Quoting Gearsts:
What wave and what is gonna happen?
the one on the mid-Atlantic
I'm going to give this thing between 50% and 70%
523. FOREX
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm going to give this thing between 50% and 70%


DataNerd recently posted within the last 30 minutes that the system is most likely falling apart as we speak.
22.30 Clock: requests for assistance via Facebook


The social media prove themselves during the current Flutnot as a valuable tool. In the affected cities to network people and seek help through groups such as "flood Dresden" or "flood district of Leipzig and Altenburger Land" . There overnight offers for each affected region to be made public, not least.


22.17 Clock: water level continues to rise in Dresden


The worst seems not yet over. Here you can track the water level of the river Elbe in Dresden.
Quoting Gearsts:
What wave and what is gonna happen?

The one east of Puerto Rico...he's just hoping for some rain.
Quoting DataNerd:
I now feel more confident that we may NOT see andrea out of this system.

Surface circulation is currently utterly exposed and convection is waning. Will have to see what the next 36 hours brings but I don't expect any more than a TD out of this.

Certainly the main issue will be rainfall, but the sfc circulation is visible meandering to the southwest at present on visible satellite with the mid-level circulation collapsing altogether.


We will see but it could easily dissipate in 24 hours. Too much shear.


With all due respect, not much of this makes any sense. The surface circulation that you are speaking of is not the real center. There is one large low pressure gyre, as there has been for days, with several small vorticies spinning around it. Secondly, convection is pretty much persisting as it has for 2 days now. And finally, nothing points to it dissipating. In fact, the best conditions for development should be tomorrow and Thursday.
527. FOREX
Quoting Andrebrooks:
the one on the mid-Atlantic


has a nice spin and some convection.
The district Deggendorf orders more evacuations, in the Czech region of Bohemia, the water is high on the streets, houses were evacuated, the A3 highway is closed in both directions due to flooding.
New center looks to be forming around 23.0N and 86.5W and is moving E/NE under the convection.
Quoting Gearsts:
What wave and what is gonna happen?


The one around 40W. It will bring some squally weather to the NE Caribbean by Sunday.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Plenty have been that strong. This El Reno EF5 just happened to have an OU research team around to prove the true winds.

BTW, this is the third EF5 in what might be called the OKC Metro area since May 24, 2011. It would take an EF5 20 or more miles wide to "destroy OKC." Tornadoes are not like hurricanes. Destruction within, say, a mile-wide path is what you see in news photos and vids. Everything appears normal if you look to one side of the path or the other. Some things can even look relatively normal within the path of a violent tornado.
True. Wasn't thinking when I said that. There are some tornadoes in recorded history as bad or worse. I was just stunned how strong it was. This tornado was still one of the strongest that regular radar (WSR-88D) ever recorded. Even Scott Lincoln was very impressed and he have seen about thousand of cases of strong tornadoes. Also, I was speaking of downtown OKC. It's not unthinkable an EF5 will hit metro OKC itself and goes through downtown OKC one day and wipe it off. Beside, people said Joplin and Moore was "destroyed" even though tornado only got between 33% to 50% of town.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


The one around 40W. It will bring some squally weather to the NE Caribbean by Sunday.
Didn't the GFS show it recurving?
Good afternoon. Really no big changes to 91L today, just a very slow, gradual organization. If shear lets up another 5-10kts I think it will have a real shot at getting at least TD status.

SOI values for 04 Jun 2013

Average for last 30 days: 11.9
Average for last 90 days: 6.0
Daily contribution to SOI calculation: 22.8
Quoting daddyjames:


It doesn't, I agree. But (as I stated earlier) the "Reed Timmer"-ization of tornado chasing has to be curtailed. A number of the "ameteurs" would not have been motivated to do what they do without glorification from tv (Discovery Channel, TWC), movies (Twister), and that all important "15 seconds" of fame called "Youtube". Plus, that there is a market for these videos - ahem, StomChasers.com (an example of the "Reed Timerization" who had a "roll-in-the-hay" - is ridiculous.

What explanation is there, if you are out there doing "research", do you have cameras pointing at you in the car recording?

The dramatization - at this point "over-dramatization - of storm chasing has now reached the equivalent of "tornado porn".

Researchers, I'm guessing might use visuals to correlate with data. Also, they need to be close to get their instruments close.

I went out and watched the fascinating cloud that was tor-warned for my town on Thursday. At the same time, I got out of the storm's path without placing myself in danger from another cell off to my SW. Friday I drove to the dryline where I'd feelo safe and I photographed the El Reno cell forming and also observed and photoed its rear flank before the tornado before and after the tornado dropped. Was a huge storm - Giant.

Frankly my dear, I don't give a darn who chases tornadoes and who doesn't, as long as they don't charge money and bring tourists.
they just went down90% to 60 and 50% chance of rain here thursday and friday and their not really talking much about it anymore here in daytona beach today... and they dont have the watch box around thursday anymore on the 5 day outlook so i think i may be right.. we wont get much here from this
im also thinking that most of the atlantic storms will miss florida like they have the past 9 years and curve out to sea or get torn apart by shear or dust or troughs
Quoting Gearsts:
Didn't the GFS show it recurving?


ThHis is an excerpt from the San Juan NWS discussion of this afternoon.

PRECIPITABLE
WATER BEGINS INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT FROM A LOW OF AROUND 1.35
REACHING 1.8 INCHES BY SUNDAY WHEN ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO PASS BY.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
they just went down90% to 60 and 50% chance of rain here thursday and friday and their not really talking much about it anymore here in daytona beach today... and they dont have the watch box around thursday anymore on the 5 day outlook so i think i may be right.. we wont get much here from this

I give you a 60% chance of injuring a shoulder if you keep patting yourself on the back so vigorously.
Looks horrid.91L (if it develops) has a shot at surpassing Danny and his ugliness.
Quoting Dakster:


I'll third that recommendation - if I didn't HAVE to use IE for a couple of work websites I need to access, I would never open it up.


I agree....kinda like the Neil Young song....." Piece Of Crap".....lol
542. FOREX
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks horrid.91L (if it develops) has a shot at surpassing Danny and his ugliness.


It looks better than 48 hours ago.
just finished watching the tropical update on the weather channel, and they said no tropical development is expected in the atlantic or carribean over the next 10 days sounds good to me
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm going to give this thing between 50% and 70%


And still developing down in the GOH like you have saying all day?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks horrid.91L (if it develops) has a shot at surpassing Danny and his ugliness.


It's identical to the system that became Debby at this point.
Did anyone see that Judge Judy case with the Parrot just now?

I can't believe Judge Judy believes a classified ad is a legally binding document.

Someone should throw HER out of court, not the plaintiff.

People write classified ads which are very short because you pay by the word or by the character. The ad is not a legal contract, which ought to be obvious because barter transactions are almost always negotiated anyway.

For example, if you had an ad where a used car was for sale, advertised for $5000. The buyer and seller negotiate and agree on $4500. Later it turns out the buyer only actually paid $4000.

Using Judge Judy's insane non-logic which she used in the bird case, if the hypothetical car seller took the buyer to court, he would be awarded $1000, which is clearly wrong and ridiculous.

The verbal contract was for a "Sitter" to take care of the bird until she could take it again later. It was not for an actual free Bird.

Judge Judy literally just robbed the plaintiff on nation wide television.

One of the worst small claims court injustices I've ever seen.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Researchers, I'm guessing might use visuals to correlate with data. Also, they need to be close to get their instruments close.

I went out and watched the fascinating cloud that was tor-warned for my town on Thursday. At the same time, I got out of the storm's path without placing myself in danger from another cell off to my SW. Friday I drove to the dryline where I'd feelo safe and I photographed the El Reno cell forming and also observed and photoed its rear flank before the tornado before and after the tornado dropped. Was a huge storm - Giant.

Frankly my dear, I don't give a darn who chases tornadoes and who doesn't, as long as they don't charge money and bring tourists.


But you did not have a video camera mounted on your dash/windshield recording every single expression you made. And you then did not edit that video together and release it - with a "not for broadcast" watermark on it - so you could profit from it . . .

Why do you think the Samaras and Young families were so concerned about the cameras falling in to the hands of the media?

Tornado Porn.

I can only hope, we never see the video of what happened to them. Even in the name of "education".
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's identical to the system that became Debby at this point.
Debby was hard on the eyes as well so I'm sure if 91L develops she won't feel so lonely.At least we don't have one of these in the gulf..

Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's identical to the system that became Debby at this point.

I was thinking the same thing.
22.55 Clock: districts evacuated Straubingen


The residents of five municipalities in the district of Straubing-Bogen forced to leave their homes. The district office shall order the immediate evacuation of entire districts or major streets. In local gyms or community centers have been set up homeless shelters.

Affected communities are the Parkstetten, Aiterhofen, Irlbach, Niederwinkling and Mariaposching. Local residents can receive on citizens' phone in Straubing-Bogen district office by phone 09421/973-332 further information.


22.30 Clock: Bitterfeld dam bursts


The situation in Bitterfeld has again a little relaxed. On Seelhausener lake, the water has reached a critical level, a piece dike was blown up. This prevents that the dam stops. The lake water is now flowing towards depression. Reiner Haseloff, Minister and Interior Minister Holger Stahlknecht (both CDU) followed the controlled demolition site with.
I did some size comparisons of the El Reno tornado to College Station, TX (where I live) and Texas A&M (where I go to school) in Google Earth, and the results are pretty dramatic. The width of the tornado is slightly more than double the length of the university campus and almost as wide as the town itself, which is mind boggling to me. I have the actual measurements up on my twitter if you're interested in actually looking at them.

@1900hurricane
Quoting DataNerd:
I now feel more confident that we may NOT see andrea out of this system.

Surface circulation is currently utterly exposed and convection is waning. Will have to see what the next 36 hours brings but I don't expect any more than a TD out of this.

Certainly the main issue will be rainfall, but the sfc circulation is visible meandering to the southwest at present on visible satellite with the mid-level circulation collapsing altogether.


We will see but it could easily dissipate in 24 hours. Too much shear.

The NHC confirmed that shear would be weakening to the moderate range by tomorrow.
553. FOREX
Quoting nigel20:

I was thinking the same thing.


Weather Channel just said the El Reno Tornado was an EF 5
Quoting seminolesfan:

I give you a 60% chance of injuring a shoulder if you keep patting yourself on the back so vigorously.


And I'm not sure what he's talking about either, I live in west-central Florida and I've got an 80% chance of rain through the week.
Ryan Maue‏@RyanMaue2 min
91L is doing a fair job battling dry air & some vertical shear. If org trend continues, then we get a subtropical or half-tropical storm
Tornados belong to the sphere of exceptional experience a lot of people are looking for today (as well as f.e. base jumping, racing, hiking Mount Everest, climbing active volcanoes, looking for violence and so on). Probably because daily life usually won't provide those borderline experiences as it did in challenging former times. It's difficult to deal with this "need". Prohibit all those activities? Some people would run wild (especially males - and I don't add a "lol").

Concerning tornados which undoubtedly are especially breathtaking: I remember an early interview with the swiss and in Germany famous-infamous weatherman Joerg Kachelmann, who answered - being questioned how he would like to die: "As a weatherman of course in the eye of an tornado". Now his saying is formed into the slogan: "Better to die in a tornado, than never to see a tornado." I restrain myself commenting this.
Quoting luvtogolf:


And still developing down in the GOH like you have saying all day?


lol very funny

I would put it somewhere near 23N 87W
Quoting Bluestorm5:
True. Wasn't thinking when I said that. I was just stunned how strong it was. However, I was speaking of downtown OKC. It's not unthinkable an EF5 will hit metro OKC itself and goes through downtown OKC one day and wipe it off. Beside, people said Joplin and Moore was "destroyed" even though tornado only got between 33% to 50% of town.
Well at least I got you to stop and think about what you meant. What you say is the same for all metro areas in Tornado and Dixie Alleys. (And elsewhere, Chicago maybe.) Truth is, the odds of it happening are with the house, in other words, slim, when you consider the vast area tornadoes have to run around in (add: and how many EF4 and 5 actually occur). "Destroyed," when people use it that way, and I am not saying it's proper to do so, refers to level of damage, not the extent of damage. I see "destructive" used quite often. And "war zone." That way you don't need a percentage. Yes, in this sense "it is not unthinkable a destructive tornado would hit downtown OKC."

'Bye now. I need to check on the weather.
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Funny guy. Sorry but no. Shear has barely dropped over the last 3 hours, and wont really drop much more.
Bubble Burster.....LOL
Everybody, think for a second... a tornado with the same size and same winds hitting Arlington. University of Texas-Arlington would be gone. Cowboy Stadium would be heavily damaged if not collapsed to ground due to lack of support, Six Flags of Texas would be gone, along with about 100,000 homes and 400,000 people in path of tornado. Fort Worth and/or Dallas will be affected as well. This is not that unthinkable as you think.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


And I'm not sure what he's talking about either, I live in west-central Florida and I've got an 80% chance of rain through the week.
west central florida is not east central florida tampa might get rain but daytona wont get mearly as much and that makes sense being this pathetic storm is no longer forcasted to come into tampa and go across central florida anymore.. its now going into the panhandle so the further east the less you get ( thats pretty easy to understand dont ya think?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Frankly my dear, I don't give a darn who chases tornadoes and who doesn't, as long as they don't charge money and bring tourists.


Why not? It's a free market - if people can make money posting videos of houses/farms being demolished, why can't people operate tours so that they can see it in person?

Edit: sarcasm flag ON.
Quoting FOREX:


Weather Channel just said the El Reno Tornado was an EF 5


Worse, widest tornado ON RECORD
Image fronm Normon NWS
I can't get over the magnitude of this. We tracked both the widest tornado ever observed and very nearly, if not the, strongest ever recorded on the planet.

It's no wonder many chasers were overtaken by this thing...the subvorticies had a forward motion of over 150 mph.
Remember don't feed the trolls..they can get really grouchy..

near 23N 87W
Quoting Dakster:


Fair enough.... Thanks for your thoughts behind it. I agree that at the moment it is the highest probable outcome. Absolutes in weather are not always good things and mother nature tends to prove weather forecasters wrong.

If you live in S Fla the weather forecast has called for 60% chance of rain for monday and tuesday, yet nary a drop, and 70 and 80% chance for tomorrow and thursday we shall see, I for one have my doubts.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


lol very funny

I would put it somewhere near 21N 86W

It seems as if 91L's circulation is still pretty broad.
Quoting FOREX:


Weather Channel just said the El Reno Tornado was an EF 5
here is a link to NWS Norman info
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1206 PM CDT TUE JUN 4 2013

...UPDATE ON MAY 31 EL RENO TORNADO...

METEOROLOGISTS WITH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND RESEARCHERS FROM
THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA CONTINUE TO INVESTIGATE INFORMATION
RELATED TO THE MAY 31 EL RENO TORNADO.

WITH THIS INVESTIGATION... THE TORNADO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EF5
TORNADO BASED ON VELOCITY DATA FROM THE RESEARCH MOBILE RADAR DATA
FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF OKLAHOMA RAXPOL RADAR
. IN ADDITION... THE
WIDTH OF TORNADO WAS MEASURED BY THE MOBILE RADAR DATA TO BE 2.6
MILES AFTER THE TORNADO PASSED EAST OF US HIGHWAY 81 SOUTH OF EL
RENO. THIS WIDTH IS THE WIDTH OF THE TORNADO ITSELF AND DOES NOT
INCLUDE THE DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS NEAR THE TORNADO AS
DETERMINED BY THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MOBILE RADAR DATA. THE 2.6 MILE
TORNADO PATH WIDTH IS BELIEVED TO BE THE WIDEST TORNADO ON RECORD
IN THE UNITED STATES.

.EL RENO TORNADO

RATING: EF5
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 16.2 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 2.6 MILES
FATALITIES: N/A
INJURIES: N/A

START DATE: MAY 31 2013
START TIME: 6:03 PM CDT
START LOCATION: 8.3 WSW OF EL RENO /CANADIAN COUNTY /OK NEAR COURTNEY ROAD ABOUT 1 MILE NORTH OF REUTER ROAD
START LAT/LON: 35.495 / -98.095

END DATE: MAY 31 2013
END TIME: 6:43 PM CDT
END LOCATION: 6.2 ESE OF EL RENO /CANADIAN COUNTY /OK NEAR INTERSTATE 40 AND BANNER ROAD
END LAT/LON: 35.502 / -97.848

$$

SMITH/GARFIELD/SPEHEGER/AUSTIN
Quoting weaverwxman:

If you live in S Fla the weather forecast has called for 60% chance of rain for monday and tuesday, yet nary a drop, and 70 and 80% chance for tomorrow and thursday we shall see, I for one have my doubts.
NOT EVEN A DROP? thats what ive been saying i also have my doughts here in daytona, but some of the experts in here seem to disagree with me after all they have been very accurate the past 3 days ( not ) maybe we need to go to weather school like them
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't get over the magnitude of this. We tracked both the widest tornado ever observed and very nearly, if not the, strongest ever recorded on the planet.

It's no wonder many chasers were overtaken by this thing...the subvorticies had a forward motion of over 150 mph.
And you were right-on (old hippie word) saying you thought it was stronger than EF3.
Quoting Tazmanian:




LOL



did you no hes a 15 year old?

And what does it mean that he is 15 years old. There are teenagers on here, like myself, that are smart.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good afternoon. Really no big changes to 91L today, just a very slow, gradual organization. If shear lets up another 5-10kts I think it will have a real shot at getting at least TD status.


I could see this system becoming a weak TS if all goes right. I highly doubt a strong TS as conditions are only marginal. I give it a 50% chance of developing.
Shear Today:


Shear Thursday:



It isn't gonna blow up to a HURR and it shouldn't totally die.

Don't downcast or wishcast; Forecast or Watchcast!
Quoting Gearsts:
What wave and what is gonna happen?


Sorry I was out... well I mean the wave currently at 40W! The GFS says it will miss the NE Carib but has trended closer, like the CMC.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks horrid.91L (if it develops) has a shot at surpassing Danny and his ugliness.

I don't think that is possible
91L is certainly not a looker though but I think the first storm of the season gets some bonus credit just for developing
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


lol very funny

I would put it somewhere near 23N 87W


Why funny?
577. SLU
Seeing this on June 4th is a very bad sign.

Quoting JTDailyUpdate:


Worse, widest tornado ON RECORD
Image fronm Normon NWS

With winds of up to 295.... yes 295 MPH just 500 feet off the ground. It is probably the strongest tornado so far this century.
 
This was what I call a BIGGIE BOOGIE TWISTING STORM. Just horrible:( 
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
And you were right-on (old hippie word) saying you thought it was stronger than EF3.

it originated in the hippie days but my friends and I use it all the time. and I know a lot of people who use it who aren't hippies. i'm 19.
Quoting nigel20:

The one east of Puerto Rico...he's just hoping for some rain.


You're right, good rain! I'm happy when the rain is falling, I like to see my island lush and green (and hate the opposite lol).
Quoting SLU:
Seeing this on June 4th is a very bad sign.



Maybe the NHC will put a yellow circle on it at 8PM
Quoting seminolesfan:
Shear Today:


Shear Thursday:



It isn't gonna blow up to a HURR and it shouldn't totally die.

Don't downcast or wishcast; Forecast or Watchcast!




you forgot fishcaster
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
NOT EVEN A DROP? thats what ive been saying i also have my doughts here in daytona, but some of the experts in here seem to disagree with me after all they have been very accurate the past 3 days ( not ) maybe we need to go to weather school like them
My brother in law lives in Daytona near the Walmart on Dunlawton and Clyde Morris. We should meet for an Iced tea. I will be in town on July 4 weekend.
585. SLU
91L not looking too bad either

Quoting daddyjames:


It doesn't, I agree. But (as I stated earlier) the "Reed Timmer"-ization of tornado chasing has to be curtailed. A number of the "ameteurs" would not have been motivated to do what they do without glorification from tv (Discovery Channel, TWC), movies (Twister), and that all important "15 seconds" of fame called "Youtube". Plus, that there is a market for these videos - ahem, StomChasers.com (an example of the "Reed Timerization") who had a "roll-in-the-hay" - is ridiculous.

What explanation is there, if you are out there doing "research", do you have cameras pointing at you in the car recording?

The dramatization - at this point "over-dramatization - of storm chasing has now reached the equivalent of "tornado porn".



Forbidding amateur storm chasing would probably require a constitutional amendment, particularly since it affects interstate commerce since the chasers are almost guaranteed to be crossing state lines at some point, and the videos are sold and distributed to interstate markets: television and internet.

Start telling people you'd like to make it illegal to drive down the highway while a passenger films, and I'm sure you'll get like zero votes.
587. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Maybe the NHC will put a yellow circle on it at 8PM


Yeah if we were in July or later this would be an invest by now but the chances of it developing further are extremely low.
Quoting weaverwxman:
My brother in law lives in Daytona near the Walmart on Dunlawton and Clyde Morris. We should meet for an Iced tea. I will be in town on July 4 weekend.
im in ormond next to daytona and i dont like guys just women
Quoting SLU:
Seeing this on June 4th is a very bad sign.

That's the one the models develop..if dust hasn't completely engulfed the Atlantic by July we could see trackers like Bertha.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
NOT EVEN A DROP? thats what ive been saying i also have my doughts here in daytona, but some of the experts in here seem to disagree with me after all they have been very accurate the past 3 days ( not ) maybe we need to go to weather school like them
This will be a tricky system to forecast. If the low forms a well defined circulation at the surface ( which may not happen if the shear sticks around ) then it would likely take off and hit north of Tampa. If it stays on the baroclinic side, a more northerly track would be possible. The NAM model actually has the system going into the panhandle.
Quoting Tornado6042008X:

With winds of up to 295.... yes 295 MPH just 500 feet off the ground. It is probably the strongest tornado so far this century.
 
This was what I call a BIGGIE BOOGIE TWISTING STORM. Just horrible:( 


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
here is a link to NWS Norman info


And "newby" Levi just happened to be in touch with this extraordinary monster ... Maybe he's attracting this sort of stuff? OK people should consider it, lol.
Quoting CaribBoy:


You're right, good rain! I'm happy when the rain is falling, I like to see my island lush and green (and hate the opposite lol).

It was pretty dry here in Jamaica up to a month ago, but it's very green at the moment. I love when the vegetation is lush and green as well.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.

Actually, he is correct. He said probably the strongest tornado this century(2000 ), and the other Moore F5 happened in 1999. The 1999 Moore tornado is the strongest on record all time.
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.

That was technically last century
Quoting stormgirI:

it originated in the hippie days but my friends and I use it all the time. and I know a lot of people who use it who aren't hippies. i'm 19.
Good for you. lol
Quoting RTSplayer:


Forbidding amateur storm chasing would probably require a constitutional amendment, particularly since it affects interstate commerce since the chasers are almost guaranteed to be crossing state lines at some point, and the videos are sold and distributed to interstate markets: television and internet.

Start telling people you'd like to make it illegal to drive down the highway while a passenger films, and I'm sure you'll get like zero votes.


Only way out: lift your prices for gas to the level of european countries (esp. Germany). Few would be able to afford those huge chasing rides any longer ...
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.
This is where people make mistake. 318 mph winds were recorded higher up in tornado in couple of thousands of feet, not on ground. Surveys and research said that tornado is about 200 mph on ground (can't back this up however as I can't find the source anymore). 2013 El Reno tornado is 296 mph just few hundred of feet above the ground. I'm not saying El Reno tornado is the strongest ever, but 1999 Moore tornado is just an typical F5 that killed lot of people in metro area.
Figures.
600. SLU
Quoting washingtonian115:
That's the one the models develop..if dust hasn't completely engulfed the Atlantic by July we could see trackers like Bertha.


Yep. I'm actually expecting very early Cape Verde development this year. Note that according to CSU's forecast, 1961, 1996, 2005, 2007, 2011 are all analogue years and most of these seasons featured pre-August 1st named storm days south 23.5n and east of 75w which is a tell-tale sign of a major hurricane season ahead.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Actually, he is correct. He said probably the strongest tornado this century(2000 ), and the other Moore F5 happened in 1999. The 1999 Moore tornado is the strongest on record all time.

Yeah, 1999 was the end of the 20th century and we're now in the 21st century.
Quoting nigel20:

It was pretty dry here in Jamaica up to a month ago, but it's very green at the moment. I love when the vegetation is lush and green as well.


Models want to bring above average rainfalls in the Caribbean and MDR. This setup seriously reminds me of 2010... which was very wet!
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
im in ormond next to daytona and i dont like guys just women
I wasnt asking you out on a date.
Im an old married guy myself.




























Quoting barbamz:


And "newby" Levi just happened to be in touch with this extraordinary monster ... Maybe he's attracting this sort of stuff? OK people should consider it, lol.
LOL, yes. I think Levi will either fall in love with severe weather or go "whew" and leave as soon as he can and never return to Oklahoma.

605. VR46L
Quoting SLU:
91L not looking too bad either



The wind sat from a few hours ago is virtually worthless due to the rain contamination



hmm just wondering what could happen if 91L loops around from the W side cyclonic movement looking at the steering this could happen
For those doing comparisons, consider this: Friday's Union City/El Reno EF5 tornado was bigger across at its largest than Hurricane Wilma's eye at its smallest. That is, the former wouldn't even fit inside the latter...
Quoting Bluestorm5:
This is where people make mistake. 318 mph winds were recorded higher up in tornado in couple of thousands of feet, not on ground. Surveys and research said that tornado is about 200 mph on ground (can't back this up however as I can't find the source anymore). 2013 El Reno tornado is 296 mph just few hundred of feet above the ground. I'm not saying El Reno tornado is the strongest ever, but 1999 Moore tornado is just an typical F5 that killed lot of people in metro area.


Not to strain out hairs or anything but an EF5 tornado is never typical :)
610. SLU
Quoting VR46L:


The wind sat from a few hours ago is virtually worthless due to the rain contamination





Well is was also 8hrs earlier too...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Forbidding amateur storm chasing would probably require a constitutional amendment, particularly since it affects interstate commerce since the chasers are almost guaranteed to be crossing state lines at some point, and the videos are sold and distributed to interstate markets: television and internet.

Start telling people you'd like to make it illegal to drive down the highway while a passenger films, and I'm sure you'll get like zero votes.


LOL - yeah, I know that.

The proliferation of news outlets putting their workers into harm's way during weather events is ludicrous, and the "one-upmanship" it inadvertently creates is ridiculous.

I have tremendous respect for forecasters at TWC, and recognize legitimate reasons for spotters and researchers having to place themselves at risk for legitimate purposes. However, there is no need for TWC to send chasers here. They could patch into local affiliates who have experienced chasers. And the dramatization of it . . .

TWC should be renamed TWPC - The Weather Porn Channel
Quoting Jedkins01:


Not to strain out hairs or anything but an EF5 tornado is never typical :)
Yeah, victims would disagree with me. Sorry for not thinking right today. I'm just tired from work. However, I'm just stating that we will never know which tornado is stronger. Yes, Moore tornado of 1999 was the highest winds ever, but that was also measured higher up in tornado so wind speed would be little lower at 500 feet. I'll say El Reno tornado of 2013 is little stronger, but we need research to compare both of tornado to see. There's many other tornadoes that wasn't measured by DOW as well so we'll never know.
i thought 91 would be a td tomorrow now it seems like thurs as it starts northeast to the big bend area
614. VR46L
Quoting SLU:


Well is was also 8hrs earlier too...


Na It wasn't, 17.00 UTC was less than 5 hrs ago ...

GMT , UTC and Zulu all stand for the same thing
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh ok thats cool no offense its just that there are alot of fruits in here as you can see by the childish and fruity comments

^^^
This post just broke my irony meter!
Quoting RTSplayer:
Did anyone see that Judge Judy case with the Parrot just now?

I can't believe Judge Judy believes a classified ad is a legally binding document.

Someone should throw HER out of court, not the plaintiff.

People write classified ads which are very short because you pay by the word or by the character. The ad is not a legal contract, which ought to be obvious because barter transactions are almost always negotiated anyway.

For example, if you had an ad where a used car was for sale, advertised for $5000. The buyer and seller negotiate and agree on $4500. Later it turns out the buyer only actually paid $4000.

Using Judge Judy's insane non-logic which she used in the bird case, if the hypothetical car seller took the buyer to court, he would be awarded $1000, which is clearly wrong and ridiculous.

The verbal contract was for a "Sitter" to take care of the bird until she could take it again later. It was not for an actual free Bird.

Judge Judy literally just robbed the plaintiff on nation wide television.

One of the worst small claims court injustices I've ever seen.


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th
Quoting CaribBoy:


Models want to bring above average rainfalls in the Caribbean and MDR. This setup seriously reminds me of 2010... which was very wet!

2010 was a very wet year for Jamaica! We got drenched by TS Nicole..we had up 37.42 inches over a period of about 4 days.
619. SLU
Quoting CaribBoy:


Models want to bring above average rainfalls in the Caribbean and MDR. This setup seriously reminds me of 2010... which was very wet!


Numbers-wise, 2013 should be very close to 2010 too.

2010

named storms - 19
named storm days - 89.5
hurricanes - 12
hurricane days - 38.5
major hurricanes - 5
major hurricane days - 11
ACE - 165
NTC - 196


2013 (CSU's forecast)

named storms - 18
named storm days - 95
hurricanes - 9
hurricane days - 40
major hurricanes - 4
major hurricane days - 9
ACE - 165
NTC - 175

In 2010 the pattern favoured recurvature but i'm not too sure about that setup this year which is why this season looks very grim for the Caribbean and the US.
Quoting barbamz:


Only way out: lift your prices for gas to the level of european countries (esp. Germany). Few would be able to afford those huge chasing rides any longer ...


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.

Tornado chaser deaths in the past several years:4.

Total tornado deaths in the past several years: A several hundred.

Alcohol related deaths in the same time: Probably around 100,000 or so.

Murder related deaths in the same time: Several ten thousands (45 per day on average).


A few storm chasers screwing up is insignificant compared to the societal problems, therefore I see no reason to punish anyone for an accident, when we don't even do what's necessary to catch or prevent murderers.

One third of Americans are already arrested at least one time before they turn 21 years of age. At least one in every 3 people you know is a convicted criminal.

That's a much bigger problem than a few deaths of tornado chasers who know the risks and made their own decisions.
look at the invest page on this site here the deal with 91l for those guessers Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 23.3 88.8W — Movement: NNW
Quoting RTSplayer:


No.

The strongest tornado on record is the OTHER Moore/Bridge Creek, Oklahoma tornado (1999), with winds over 300mph.
I mean this century(2000-2013 so far).
624. SLU
Quoting VR46L:


Na It wasn't, 17.00 UTC was less than 5 hrs ago ...

GMT , UTC and Zulu all stand for the same thing




The actual time of the pass is at the bottom of the image in purple.
Quoting seminolesfan:

^^^
This post just broke my irony meter!
I have had him on ignore for a few days. The username was an obvious give away.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th

Where will you be visiting?
When has a great looking organized storm FORMED in the GOM last?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.


The ad came first, but was clearly not adequate description of the "giver's" intent.

The description of the verbal agreement was that she was looking for a "sitter" to keep the bird, that's what she said she agreed to. Her complaint was that the woman was not taking proper care of "her" bird. The other woman claimed she was taking care of it.

Judge Judy threw out the plaintiff's case and gave custody of the bird to the woman who did not own it.

In fact, she never really let the plaintiff make her case, because she's so God aweful arrogant that she interrupts everyone every time they try to speak. "Go ahead...(plaintiff starts to talk), [interuptions] blah, blah, changet he subject, etc."

How she got to be a judge is perplexing to me. She's incompetent.
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
When has a great looking organized storm FORMED in the GOM last?
Alex from 2010. Did not really form in the GOM though.
actually looks like the ejected llc might come all the way back around as the real one.

hard to tell how many possible llc's exist
631. VR46L
Quoting SLU:


Fair enough !
I stand corrected .

Sorry My error
Quoting Neapolitan:
For those doing comparisons, consider this: Friday's Union City/El Reno EF5 tornado was bigger across at its largest than Hurricane Wilma's eye at its smallest. That is, the former wouldn't even fit inside the latter...



WOW
Quoting nigel20:

2010 was a very wet year for Jamaica! We got drenched by TS Nicole..we had up 37.42 inches over a period of about 4 days.


Wow! That's almost our yearly total for an average year!
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
oh ok thats cool no offense its just that there are alot of fruits in here as you can see by the childish and fruity comments


Sorry, but POOF
Quoting RTSplayer:


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.
That's a much bigger problem than a few deaths of tornado chasers who know the risks and made their own decisions.


Sure, I won't object to this.

Edit: Just my personal impression following the streams of the chasers (yes I do sometimes) and seeing them stopping at the gas stations over and over: I would soon run out of money doing this in Germany. No joke.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


As someone who has taken someone business law classes, a verbal agreement is all that is needed to verify a contract unless the contract is a substantial amount of money, or for any real estate.


Ok, but a classified advertisement is not a contract. It is an offer, or just a statement of an expected price.

People never pay the actual advertised amount in a classified advertisement, and the transaction is virtually never exactly what is advertised. That's what negotiation is, and it's why I gave that example above about a hypothetical used car ad.

Judge Judy used a classified ad as though it were a binding contract, when that cannot be the case, since there actually was no "transaction". The Bird was never given away, it was supposed to be a "Sitter" relationship, where the second woman was supposed to care for the bird till the first would reclaim it later.


If classified ads were legally binding, then "Pawn" businesses like American Pickers would be in deep crap, because they'd never be able to legally negotiate a price without later getting sued for the difference...
Quoting RTSplayer:


Woah, woah.

Let's put things in context.

Not to mention Germany is approx the size of Oregon and has an infrastructure' taxi's, street cars, and trains, that can get you almost anywhere on the cheap. Germany's population= >81 million, Oregon's population approx 4 million.
Quoting anotherwrongyear:
im in ormond next to daytona and i dont like guys just women

i happen to agree that i think all this talk of massive rain for florida wont pan out but
your also kind of a jerk , since everyone on here is wrong with forecasting why dont you hang out on another site where everyone is right just like you.
Great to see you all again. I figured now would be a great time to come back to the best blog ever. Cape Coral checking in! .65 rain today.
Just taking a quick glance at 91L, it has definitely become better organized today. I'd give it a 50% or 60% chance in the 8pm TWO.

Bumping my chances of it ever developing to 50% (from ~40%).
Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Wednesday A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a low around 67. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Thursday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Cloudy, with a high near 82. Light east wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 2am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 8am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 83. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66.

Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 84.

Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.

Sunday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64.

Monday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 85.

Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71.

Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87.


all good except

FOR NOW THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
643. SLU
Quoting VR46L:


Fair enough !
I stand corrected .

Sorry My error


that's fine
644. MTWX
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Plenty have been that strong. This El Reno EF5 just happened to have an OU research team around to prove the true winds.

BTW, this is the third EF5 in what might be called the OKC Metro area since May 24, 2011. It would take an EF5 20 or more miles wide to "destroy OKC." Tornadoes are not like hurricanes. Destruction within, say, a mile-wide path is what you see in news photos and vids. Everything appears normal if you look to one side of the path or the other. Some things can even look relatively normal within the path of a violent tornado.


The 1999 Moore, OK tornado still holds the record for highest recorded winds... 318 MPH, if I'm not mistaken...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
THE BIGGEST POINT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST SOLUTION IS
CONCERNING THE GULF LOW AND THE COLD FRONT. IF THE COLD FRONT SLOWS
ITS PROGRESSION OR DOES NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH...THE GULF
LOW COULD TAKE A MORE NORTHERLY TURN. THIS WOULD GREATLY INCREASE
THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW...CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE IN THE DRY SLOT...CUTTING OFF THE
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. FOR NOW...WITH MODELS CONSISTENTLY PUSHING THE LOW OFF
TO THE EAST...FEEL THAT IT IS BEST TO DO A MODEL COMPROMISE WITH
POPS...AND CONTINUE THE LIKELY POPS FRIDAY.


BMX
Quoting RTSplayer:


Forbidding amateur storm chasing would probably require a constitutional amendment, particularly since it affects interstate commerce since the chasers are almost guaranteed to be crossing state lines at some point, and the videos are sold and distributed to interstate markets: television and internet.

Start telling people you'd like to make it illegal to drive down the highway while a passenger films, and I'm sure you'll get like zero votes.
Sure, but I imagine the waivers are lawyer-ed up and insurance costs are high.
648. SLU
Quoting SLU:


Numbers-wise, 2013 should be very close to 2010 too.

2010

named storms - 19
named storm days - 89.5
hurricanes - 12
hurricane days - 38.5
major hurricanes - 5
major hurricane days - 11
ACE - 165
NTC - 196


2013 (CSU's forecast)

named storms - 18
named storm days - 95
hurricanes - 9
hurricane days - 40
major hurricanes - 4
major hurricane days - 9
ACE - 165
NTC - 175

In 2010 the pattern favoured recurvature but i'm not too sure about that setup this year which is why this season looks very grim for the Caribbean and the US.


..... the reason being that the mean pattern from April 1st to June 2nd has been for a large area of anomalous ridging near eastern Canada which is the opposite of 2010.

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Quoting CaribBoy:


Wow! That's almost our yearly total for an average year!

It can get very wet here in Jamaica, that's one of the reasons the island is so called "Land of Wood and Water" Our wettest tropical cyclone is the "November 1909 Hurricane"...up to 135 inches was recorded in sections of Jamaica.
Quoting seminolesfan:

I give you a 60% chance of injuring a shoulder if you keep patting yourself on the back so vigorously.

I can't wait to hear what he has to say when Daytona ends up receiving 3-6 inches of rain. Probably something along the lines of " I told you guys all along Daytona was going to get a bunch of rain but nobody believed me..."
Quoting nigel20:

It can get very wet here in Jamaica, that's one of the reasons the island is so called "Land of Wood and Water" Our wettest tropical cyclone is the "November 1909 Hurricane"...up to 135 inches was recorded in sections of Jamaica.


Really incredible!


Latest one.
There is a new blog in case anyone missed the WunderBot post on the last page...
It is very possible the El Reno tornado was the strongest tornado ever observed. The 318 MPH record set by the OKC tornado in 1999 was measured ~30m up. The 296 MPH observation with the El Reno tornado was ~500ft up. Tornadoes usually have their strongest winds in the lowest 100m (maximizing around 50m up). So, the radar was looking a a stronger level of the tornado during the OKC tornado. Had the radar been at a lower level for the El Reno tornado (like the OKC tornado), it probably would've recorded a bit stronger winds...

Impossible to say for sure though. Additionally, none of these observations are surface observations. It is impossible to say how fast winds were at the surface.
There appears to be a low trying to form just east of the Belize/Mexico also.
According to NOAA.gov, the average # of F3-F5 tornados appears to be declining consistently during the last 60-years (1954-present). Link

The average # of reported tornados during the same years (F-1 or larger) has been relatively stable. Link

There are several possibilities;
1) Change in standards for classifying tornados (i.e. better investigation, research & fact finding).

2) More structures are being built, more people living in the path of the storms. Fujita scale is based on severity of damage... and there is unquestionably more structures & vehicles to damage.

3) Actual reduction in strength of the most serious tornados as evidenced by the reduced trending #'s of F3-F5 tornados reported on a yearly basis.

Is there an aparent reason for the 60-year decline in powerful F3-F5 tornados, even though the average # of overall tornados is consistent?
Quoting RetainingH2O:
According to NOAA.gov, the average # of F3-F5 tornados appears to be declining consistently during the last 60-years (1954-present). Link

The average # of reported tornados during the same years (F-1 or larger) has been relatively stable. Link

There are several possibilities;
1) Change in standards for classifying tornados (i.e. better investigation, research & fact finding).

2) More structures are being built, more people living in the path of the storms. Fujita scale is based on severity of damage... and there is unquestionably more structures & vehicles to damage.

3) Actual reduction in strength of the most serious tornados as evidenced by the reduced trending #'s of F3-F5 tornados reported on a yearly basis.

Is there an aparent reason for the 60-year decline in powerful F3-F5 tornados, even though the average # of overall tornados is consistent?

#1 plus better construction standards in tornado prone areas. Structures that would have been totally destroyed by an EF-3, especially commercial structures, have much better connections and foundation ties than 60 years ago. I also suspect, with aerial storm damage assesment and satellite and radar data, that tornadoes that would have been classified as EF-3's are now more often classified as EF-2's.
Quoting MTWX:


The 1999 Moore, OK tornado still holds the record for highest recorded winds... 318 MPH, if I'm not mistaken...
My point is plenty other tornadoes had that kind of wind, just no one around to measure it for science

Just for the record, that 1999 tornado wind measurement also came from researchers. By now, Dr Masters has cleared this up in his new blog. Read on, MacDuff.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well guys I'll be in Jamaica next week Friday and I'll be there till the 24th
What? I thought Caymanians didn't go near Jamaica??
Quoting seminolesfan:
Shear Today:


Shear Thursday:



It isn't gonna blow up to a HURR and it shouldn't totally die.

Don't downcast or wishcast; Forecast or Watchcast!
If it were August or September I would be concerned.