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Little change to 90L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on May 25, 2010

The extratropical low pressure system (90L) approaching North Carolina has weakened some over the past 24 hours, and has a much reduced chance of developing into a subtropical storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 20% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on it. Last night's ASCAT pass saw a large area of 35 mph winds to the north and east of the center, and buoy 41048 to northeast of 90L's center was seeing sustained E winds of 31 mph, gusting to 36 mph this morning. Bermuda radar showing an area of moderate to heavy rain has now moved north of the island, and seas are running 10 - 15 feet in the outer waters of Bermuda today.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L and the Central American disturbance this morning.

Strong upper-levels winds out of the west are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over 90L, and the shear has been gradually decreasing over the past day. Visible satellite loops show that 90L has a well-defined surface circulation. The main thunderstorm activity is in a large curved band to the north and northeast of the center. This band is several hundred miles removed from the center, which is characteristic of subtropical storms. Sea surface temperatures are near 24°C today and will remain in the 23 - 24°C range the next two days. These relatively cool SSTs have hampered formation of much heavy thunderstorm activity, as has the presence of a large area of dry air to the west, as seen on water vapor satellite loops .

The system will move slowly towards the Southeast U.S. coast today, making its closest approach to the coast on Wednesday, when most of the models indicate the center will be 300 - 500 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. All of the major models currently predict that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly eastward out to sea on Thursday, when a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Guatemala. The disturbance will move inland over Central America during the last half of the week, potentially bringing flooding rains to portions of Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean late this week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tornadoes rip through the Plains
The Storm Prediction Center logged 17 reports of tornadoes yesterday, with twisters reported in South Dakota, North Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas. In addition, there were 158 hail reports and 126 reports of damaging winds. Fortunately, there were no deaths or injuries reported, and it was a good day for the Vortex2 tornado field research project. Former wunderblogger Mike Theiss caught up with a very picturesque tornado near Faith, South Dakota, and has posted some spectacular video of the tornado.


Figure 2. Large tornado near Faith, South Dakota on May 24, 2010 just misses hitting a church. Image credit: Mike Theiss, ultimatechase.com. Check out his spectacular video of the tornado.

I'll be back later today to discuss how a hurricane might affect the oil in the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1502. Ossqss
Quoting MrstormX:
1491. Arthur of 2008 came from the EPAC


LoL, The storm that did a change from Alma to Arthur. Good job, but that was not the first was it? :)
1503. xcool
Quoting Ossqss:


LoL, The storm that did a change from Alma to Arthur. Good job, but that was not the first was it? :)


Most go Atlantic to Pacific.
hmmm the NAM 00Z has the system in the NW Caribbean in the GOH in 84 hours = day 4 = 29/5/10

1506. aquak9
lordy lordy...

pass the advil...
1507. Drakoen
Quoting SouthALWX:

stubborn


lol
Quoting Ossqss:


Trivia then I guess, when has the first named storm in the Atlantic side of the house, come from the EPAC side of the house? :)

Too easy with this sort of write up out there: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E15.html

1. Northeast Pacific Hurricane Cosme became Atlantic Tropical Storm Allison (June 1989).
2. A Northeast Pacific Tropical Storm (September-October 1949) became an Atlantic Hurricane (Storm #10) and made landfall in TX.

(But this only considers developed, named systems, not every puff of clouds...)
1510. pottery
I'm out.
Lets hope that BP's engineers can get a good result with the planned plug of the leaks tomorrow.
Stay safe all.
1511. Drakoen
The way the trough axis is extending would support the advection of vorticity and moisture from the EPAC into the Caribbean:

Why did the earth cool down 12,800 years ago? Not enough mammoth farts.
RE: 1510

Yes. Lets hope so. Then lets hope that BP isnt let off the hook for this mess. I dont want a penny of my tax dollars going to help a multi-billion dollar oil company get out of a mess of thier own making.
1514. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:
What was the term used to refer systems crossing basins?

And the answer is? You better get your punctuation right on this :)
1515. DDR
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmmm the NAM 00Z has the system in the NW Caribbean in the GOH in 84 hours = day 4 = 29/5/10


Hey kman
That will be alot of rain for some areas,we're getting a generous share these days,including tonight.
Hey everybody,

Well we have been 1687 miles so far and no Tornado's yet... Last night we missed the storm by approx 12 miles and tonight was only Thunderstorms :o(
Maybe tomorrow will be a little better.... Still in the Texas Panhandle and looks good for the chase.... Lets hope anyway....
I do want to say it is a "Long Way" from Mobile AL thats for sure....

Taco :o)
1517. Drakoen
Quoting Ossqss:
Quoting Drakoen:
What was the term used to refer systems crossing basins?

And the answer is? You better get your punctuation right on this :)


transbasinite
1518. Levi32
Popcorn, anyone?

Quoting taco2me61:
Hey everybody,

Well we have been 1687 miles so far and no Tornado's yet... Last night we missed the storm by approx 12 miles and tonight was only Thunderstorms :o(
Maybe tomorrow will be a little better.... Still in the Texas Panhandle and looks good for the chase.... Lets hope anyway....
I do want to say it is a "Long Way" from Mobile AL thats for sure....

Taco :o)

Well, enjoy your cruise through the plains.
(might need an oil change soon)
Quoting Drakoen:


transbasinite

lol
1521. xcool
Levi32 meme mee
1522. FIU2010
guys, phil ferro just mentioned that he is watching 90E.
1523. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


transbasinite


LoL, That sounds like something on the periodic table, but I cannot find it :)

L8R

Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, enjoy your cruise through the plains.
(might need an oil change soon)


I did get it changed right before we left, but I know I will have too have another one by Monday :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting Drakoen:


transbasinite


lol



WET
1528. xcool


1529. Drakoen
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
11N89W HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SE MEXICO. PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS OCCURRING ALONG THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR
GUATEMALA AND MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND WITHIN 180 NM N
OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 97W. A 2348 UTC WINDSAT PASS SHOWED
20-25 KT INFLOW INTO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION OVER RAIN FREE AREAS
WELL TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM...AND A POSSIBLE CIRCULATION FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
new surface maps (00Z)



1531. FIU2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


lol


that sounds sexual, drak. would the storm accquire a sex change, j/k.
1532. FIU2010
guys we have a low, so it begins. xcool stay with me, i'll be up until 2am waiting for the new ecmwf to come out, lol
1533. xcool
lmao i just post ooz map
1534. xcool
lmao
So far the 00z GFS really develops 90E. That doesnt look good for our possible Caribbean storm.

(Using StormVista)
The 00z GFS turns 90E into a Cane.

1537. xcool
stormchaser2007do you pay for (Using StormVista) ?
Quoting xcool:
stormchaser2007do you pay for (Using StormVista) ?

Yes, its a paid site.
1539. xcool
Stormchaser2007 DAM THANKS.
1540. FIU2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The 00z GFS turns 90E into a Cane.



hwo so, wouldn't that give it a greater likelyhood of it making the cross? or im i missing something here.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The 00z GFS turns 90E into a Cane.

the first of many this season tracks over then along cayman trench deepest water there greatest heat contend it may be a howler things are coming together across all basins not long now
1542. Motttt
So What are they rite now doing on this oil well??Link
OH MY...... Look at those strong t-storms near Trinidad and Tobago, they've exploded!


1544. FIU2010
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the first of many this season tracks over then along cayman trench deepest water there greatest heat contend it may be a howler things are coming together across all basins not long now


what do you mean, keeper, do you think it'll survive and it will make it into the carib?
Out to 90 and the 00z GFS barely develops anything in the Caribbean.

G'night
1547. FIU2010
gezze, bro, stop deahcasting it and give ita chance, :). anyways, g'morning luisiana man,
1548. Motttt
Hey Pat, Any info on the oil well? Link
1549. Patrap
Just watching the BP Live feed,,..hoping the Top Kill gets a chance to occur on time in the morning.


Oil spill cleanup important phone numbers and information

by WWLTV.com

wwltv.com



Phone numbers for people needing to report information on the oil spill.

* Emergency Volunteers - 1-866-448-5816
* If you have a boat that can be used - 1-425-745-8017
* To report oiled birds - 1-866-557-1401
* Spill related damages - 1-800-440-0858
* For St. Bernard residents looking to have questions answered: 504-277-4911. Toll-free: 1-877-902-4911


JP leaders have started their own training program for those who want to help protect the coast from the oil. The courses start Monday. You need to pre-register with the following numbers:

Grand Isle - 985-787-3196

Jean Lafitte - 504-689-2208

Westwego - 504-341-3424
I'm go out on a limb:90L appears to have everything that would make it a classified TD1,however if 90L last year didn't get tagged,I seriously doubt they'll tag this years!!!!,IMO
1551. Motttt
What the hay are they doing to it now?? look at the cam.Link
1552. pottery
Quoting CaribBoy:
OH MY...... Look at those strong t-storms near Trinidad and Tobago, they've exploded!



Well I went to bed. But had to come back to check this rain out.
Coming down real heavy, and looks like it could do that for a couple hours!
No wind at all, just like a waterfall here.
1553. FIU2010
Quoting Patrap:
Oil spill cleanup important phone numbers and information

by WWLTV.com

wwltv.com

Posted on April 30, 2010 at 8:42 PM

Updated Monday, May 17 at 10:24 AM

Phone numbers for people needing to report information on the oil spill.

* Emergency Volunteers - 1-866-448-5816
* If you have a boat that can be used - 1-425-745-8017
* To report oiled birds - 1-866-557-1401
* Spill related damages - 1-800-440-0858
* For St. Bernard residents looking to have questions answered: 504-277-4911. Toll-free: 1-877-902-4911

Just watching the BP Live feed,,..hoping the Top Kill gets a chance to occur on time in the morning.

JP leaders have started their own training program for those who want to help protect the coast from the oil. The courses start Monday. You need to pre-register with the following numbers:

Grand Isle - 985-787-3196

Jean Lafitte - 504-689-2208

Westwego - 504-341-3424


dang patricio, do you work for them or something, LOL.
Quoting FIU2010:


what do you mean, keeper, do you think it'll survive and it will make it into the carib?
only if it stays the same it may cross over if it goes stronger it remains in epac
1555. GBlet
Anybody got a third eye? I could really use one, cuz here comes the storms!
Quoting pottery:

Well I went to bed. But had to come back to check this rain out.
Coming down real heavy, and looks like it could do that for a couple hours!
Np wind at all, just like a waterfall here.
wheelbarrel fulls you said it was buckets earlier i can sell ya a kayak cheap if ya need one
1558. FIU2010
ooohhhh so it needs to stay week in order for it to make it here?
1559. Levi32
1560. Motttt
Do you know what there doing?
1561. Patrap
100525-G-5809B-001 Commandant Change of Command

WASHINGTON - Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano presides as Adm. Robert J. Papp Jr., relieves Adm. Thad W. Allen as Coast Guard Commandant during the Coast Guard Commandant Change of Command ceremony at Ft. McNair, May 25, 2010. During the ceremony Papp became the 24th Commandant of the Coast Guard. U.S. Coast Guard video by Telfair H. Brown, Sr.
1562. Patrap
Quoting Motttt:
Do you know what there doing?


right now their Blowing Mud,or drill fluids thru the BOP preparing for the Top Kill in the Morning.
1563. Patrap


DeepwaterHorizonJIC — May 24, 2010 — Animated footage of the "top kill" procedure which BP will perform later this week at the Deepwater Horizon site in an effort to stop the leak. Find out more by visiting http://deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
1564. xcool



new NGPPP




1565. Motttt
So I guess it is a go for the top kill now?
charleston long range radar looks interesting this even'n......I'm think'n NEFL might get into some of 90L's stronger features tomorrow if that area stregthens could even see TD conditions along FL/GA coastline tomorrow,IMO
latest atl basin anim. image up too 1201 am
Quoting pottery:

Well I went to bed. But had to come back to check this rain out.
Coming down real heavy, and looks like it could do that for a couple hours!
No wind at all, just like a waterfall here.


It was raining really hard here last afternoon not as bad a week ago, which woke me up from a nap. It wasn't from thunder.
1569. DDR
Quoting pottery:

Well I went to bed. But had to come back to check this rain out.
Coming down real heavy, and looks like it could do that for a couple hours!
No wind at all, just like a waterfall here.

Yea man im having trouble sleeping as well,copious amounts of rainfall,bucket a drop.
1570. Patrap
DATE: May 25, 2010 19:34:35 CST


Update Regarding ROV Monitoring of ‘Top Kill’ Procedure

Key contact numbers

* Report oiled shoreline or request volunteer information: (866) 448-5816
* Submit alternative response technology, services or products: (281) 366-5511
* Submit your vessel for the Vessel of Opportunity Program: (281) 366-5511
* Submit a claim for damages: (800) 440-0858
* Report oiled wildlife: (866) 557-1401



Deepwater Horizon Incident
Joint Information Center

Phone: (985) 902-5231
(985) 902-5240

LONDON -- BP confirmed May 25, 2010 that following detailed discussion with the National Incident Commander, Admiral Thad Allen, it will continue to provide live video feeds from the seabed throughout the planned ‘top kill’ procedure – the attempt to stop the flow from the damaged MC252 well by pumping heavy drilling fluids into it.

Preparations for this procedure are continuing with the expectation that it could be activated on the morning of Wednesday May 26, 2010.

Throughout the extended top kill procedure – which may take up to two days to complete - very significant changes in the appearance of the flows at the seabed may be expected. These will not provide a reliable indicator of the overall progress, or success or failure, of the top kill operation as a whole. BP will report on the progress of the operation as appropriate and on its outcome when complete.



For information about the response effort, visit www.deepwaterhorizonresponse.com.
1571. Motttt
Thanks Pat.. I glad to se the web cam still up. and a new hole for what?
they have to see if the mud will stop the flow in order to put the top kill in place right? pat you on?
1574. xcool
new stuff come soon..
1575. Motttt
Quoting WaterWitch11:
they have to see if the mud will stop the flow in order to put the top kill in place right? pat you on?

Well it looks like something broke off. nope still got a hold of it
1576. Patrap
The BOP has to undergo a test procedure for pressure and other, they doing that now...then tomorrow Drilling Mud and Concrete will be pumped into the bop and well proper to try and stop the flow.

It may take up to 2 Days as well.
1577. Motttt
Is that part of the riser above the bop?
1578. FIU2010
Quoting xcool:
new stuff come soon..


yay, ^_^.
1579. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Yea man im having trouble sleeping as well,copious amounts of rainfall,bucket a drop.

58 mm in the past hour.
over 2"
The sat map is showing an intense circular blob right overhead!

That vid of the ROV's doing thier thing is incredible!!
Looking at that now
They are so dextrous man...
1581. FIU2010
damn pottery, do you ever sleep. top of the morning to ya, tim, what's new, sir?
My guess is we are seeing Mud being forced into the Pipe to be delivered into the BOP and your seeing Bubbles and being forced out from the air in the pipe above as they want no air pockets to enter into the main valve hole. Just a guess.
1584. DDR
Quoting pottery:

58 mm in the past hour.
over 2"
The sat map is showing an intense circular blob right overhead!

That vid of the ROV's doing thier thing is incredible!!
Looking at that now
They are so dextrous man...

We could see some serious flooding if this rain storm continues...Freak weather,I'm out.
1585. xcool
:0
1586. pottery
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I should have KNOWN you were behind this....
Turn it off, Keeper!
LOL
well your getting your rain you asked for it

should wring itself out in about 2 hrs or so
1588. pottery
OK I am out again.
Keep an eye on those ROV's Pat.
1589. Levi32
Quoting pottery:

I should have KNOWN you were behind this....
Turn it off, Keeper!
LOL


Weren't you begging for an island-size shower-head? Lol.
i am out as well
later too all that may be here
have a good morning
Quoting FIU2010:
damn pottery, do you ever sleep. top of the morning to ya, tim, what's new, sir?


The JFV crap is getting old. If your him, can you at least try to make it less obvious?
1592. xcool
lmao
1593. xcool
Hello everyone! hows everyone doing anyways we have 90E in the east pacific I bileve this will be the first named storm in the east pacific.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Hello everyone! hows everyone doing anyways we have 90E in the east pacific I bileve this will be the first named storm in the east pacific.


If the steering ends up transpiring as predicted (that is, from a landfall in southeast Mexico to a subsequent NE to ENE movement into the western Caribbean), I feel that 90E/Agatha will be a major rainmaker for southeast Mexico, potentially triggering flash floods and mudslides.
1596. scott39
Is 90E going to stay out of the GOM?
1597. xcool



GFS... FROM EPAC TO western Caribbean
Quoting scott39:
Is 90E going to stay out of the GOM?
Yes it will stay out because if and thats a if it crosses into the Caribbean the steering would take it Ne/ene motion to cuba and get ripped apart but lets not get ahead first we have to see what 90E does.
xcool you got mail.
Quoting scott39:
Is 90E going to stay out of the GOM?


All indications are that it will, yes.
1601. xcool
TampaSpin YEAH works
1602. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


All indications are that it will, yes.
The reason i ask is because the models earlier today had it more ENE and now they have backed off farther W and turning farther N.
Quoting scott39:
The reason i ask is because the models earlier today had it more ENE and now they have backed off farther W and turning farther N.


I think that's an unrealistic scenario, because I think the trough that will absorb 90L is strong enough, and extends far enough southward to keep 90E/Agatha out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, if the models persist in that prediction...
Quoting xcool:
TampaSpin YEAH works
3

Go to the blog area
1605. FIU2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


I think that's an unrealistic scenario, because I think the trough that will absorb 90L is strong enough, and extends far enough southward to keep 90E/Agatha out of the Gulf of Mexico.

Now, if the models persist in that prediction...



hmmmmm
1606. scott39
90E looks like its getting act together. IMO
1607. FIU2010
hi tim.
Quoting FIU2010:



hmmmmm
What are you thinking?
1609. scott39
When is the trough suppose to absorb 90E? How many days?
1610. FIU2010
about a distinctive possibility regarding 90E.
1611. xcool


so NGP AND CMC

Quoting FIU2010:
about a distinctive possibility regarding 90E.
What the possibility your thinking about?
Quoting scott39:
90E looks like its getting act together. IMO


Convection displaced to the west of the vorticity maximum, due to easterly shear induced by a developing anticyclone to the east:

Quoting scott39:
When is the trough suppose to absorb 90E? How many days?


Don't you mean 90L? 90E doesn't get absorbed for the foreseeable future.
1615. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Convection displaced to the west of the vorticity maximum, due to easterly shear induced by a developing anticyclone to the east:

Does that mean it is developing more or not?
Quoting FIU2010:
hi tim.


Hello Xcool and i are on my Website just playing with my Instant messenger.

TampaSpins Tropical Update
1617. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Don't you mean 90L? 90E doesn't get absorbed for the foreseeable future.
Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?
Quoting scott39:
Does that mean it is developing more or not?


It means it's still disorganized.

Remember, in order for a disturbance to intensify, it needs to have deep convection over or near its center. The current burst is displaced quite a bit away from the vorticity maximum.

90E appears to be a large, monsoon-like system, and those are notorious for only slow intensification.
Quoting scott39:
Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?


Yes, but being shot to the ENE isn't tantamount to being absorbed.
1620. FIU2010
i want to join you gusy, tim.
Quoting scott39:
Isnt the same trough that absorbs 90L going to pick up 90E and shoot it back ENE?
Yes it is
1622. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but being shot to the ENE isn't tantamount to being absorbed.
True,wrong choice of wording.
1623. xcool
mmm
1624. xcool
I JUSTING UPDATE MY BLOG GO SEEING ITTT
1625. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


It means it's still disorganized.

Remember, in order for a disturbance to intensify, it needs to have deep convection over or near its center. The current burst is displaced quite a bit away from the vorticity maximum.

90E appears to be a large, monsoon-like system, and those are notorious for only slow intensification.
It looks like on the current Satt, that there is a small burst of convection at the cordinates of the center.
1626. xcool
lmao
Alright its about that time see you in the morning!
1629. FIU2010
:). :(.
I saw that. It almost looks like a new center is trying to form around 31 N 77 W
1631. xcool



new
1632. FIU2010
Quoting xcool:



new


thanx.
1633. xcool
anytime.
1634. xcool
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I saw that. It almost looks like a new center is trying to form around 31 N 77 W


That right now is a mid level center from the convection that developed earlier. The other center is still moving nw just to the east of that center. It's gonna be interesting to see it there will be a reform under the mid level center or if they will some how spin to each other.
1636. FIU2010
nite, all.
1637. xcool
Looks like 90L is just looping around out there like most of the models predicted. It shouldn't be too long now and it will eject off to the NE. The gulf stream seems to be aiding some fuel on the W side of the center. I would think if the center relocated further W it could just bring more showers to the coast than expected...but it won't be making landfall.
I noticed on that last frame on that loop that weathersp posted it looks like almost a due S or maybe even a SSE movement. Looks like 90L is trying to burnout some 360's :)
Guys 90E is exploding right now and some of the newest models are showing this system moving into the Bay of Campeche. If this happens we could have a track toward the FL west coast or Mexico. The thinking is beoming this may end up being a Gulf storm not a Caribbean one.
One more image before I go out...

Note the 40kt ship report over the Mid-Level Center.

Quoting weathersp:
One more image before I go out...

Note the 40kt ship report over the Mid-Level Center.



90E is a monster right now as there is a low developing under that massive burst of convection and this doen not bode well for the gulf coast states if this system moves NNE into the Bay of Campeche.
90E could be interesting. I wouldn't be too worried until we actually have a TD with an LLC with GFDL runs.
Wow did the models get 90L wrong they thought it was moving back out to sea
1645. kingy
top kill activities have started, get your coffee and croissants and watch the webcam, if this fails she's gushing all summer daddio
1646. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 31N75W 1007 MB WILL MOVE E
TONIGHT AND THU PASSING NEAR BERMUDA FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.
Alex, Agatha, or Conson is forming this week We just don't know which one.
Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT WED MAY 26 2010

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD LOW PRES NEAR 31N75W 1007 MB WILL MOVE E
TONIGHT AND THU PASSING NEAR BERMUDA FRI. THE LOW WILL DRAG A
SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS THROUGH THE BAHAMAS WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.


Good Morning! Ike what are your thoughts on 90E as this looks to be a hard one to forecast but model trends seem want to move this into the Gulf. Also, do you think a new center formed last night?
1649. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning! Ike what are your thoughts on 90E as this looks to be a hard one to forecast but model trends seem want to move this into the Gulf. Also, do you think a new center formed last night?


Looks to be near 95W.
Two thoughts. First 90L looks like it is getting better but it isnt. It is just getting a tighter gradient on the west side and that convection is interaction with a trough. It is done.

90E is very interesting but once again I caution model use. The models are still trying to intialize on 90E so they will be jumpy at first. Also it is transition season so intensity may be off by a bit. Either way This one is going to be a good one to watch.
Good Morning,

The Gulf coast will be protected either way we put it. The subtropical jet stream isn't going anywhere, anytime soon - like about 2 weeks more. So shear will likely keep anything weak.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

The Gulf coast will be protected either way we put it. The subtropical jet stream isn't going anywhere, anytime soon - like about 2 weeks more. So shear will likely keep anything weak.


GFS is having a hard time trying to handle this system. I can tell you this I don't expect this to get into the Caribbean due to the center reforming last night.
Quoting Jeff9641:


GFS is having a hard time trying to handle this system. I can tell you this I don't expect this to get into the Caribbean due to the center reforming last night.


I see your point.
1657. MahFL
Are we sure the trough will pick 90L up in time, before it comes ashore ? It seems to be getting pretty close to land.
Quoting CycloneUK:


Add to the one near New Zealand earlier this month, these subtropical entities are popping up quite fast.
90E already look like TS?
Link

Link
1661. cg2916
90L is looking a lot better.
1662. IKE
1663. IKE
Not much left of 90L....

Morning All

90 is still kicking off the coast!

Frying Pan Tower
NDBC - Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy Observations
Station 41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy
May 26, 2010 6:50 am EDT
Location: 33.436N 77.743W
Wind Direction: NNE (20°)
Wind Speed: 25.3 knots
Wind Gust: 29.2 knots
Significant Wave Height: 9.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Average Period: 6.0 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (115°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.80 in (1009.0 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.00 in (-0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 69.8°F (21.0°C)
Dew Point: 67.6°F (19.8°C)
Water Temperature: 72.5°F (22.5°C)
Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry
I think the larger, stronger 90E will continue drifting WNW while a piece of energy from it will move into the Caribbean. I think that is what the models are predicting. Below is a picture depicting what I'm thinking:

Quoting BadHurricane:
90E already look like TS?
Link

Link
They still haven't found winds above 25 MPH but I do think that we will have TD 1-E in within 18 hours.
1669. IKE
CEO of BP on CNN....stop dodging the questions. You sound like every politician on the planet.
good job MiamiHurricanes09 but it seems that big blob to the NW in your pic it just that a blob not 90E look at what I posted # 1663 that is where 90E is and look at the date and time
1671. IKE
What I see in the east-PAC is near 12N and 96W.
Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ?
1673. MahFL
BP CEO yet to give green light to Top Kill attempt.
Quoting IKE:
CEO of BP on CNN....stop dodging the questions. You sound like every politician on the planet.

Morning Ike are they going to try and plug that puppy today?
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry


Way too early to start with the proverbial "I told you so" prediction five months out Nostradomus........Good Morning to the Rest of You.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good job MiamiHurricanes09 but it seems that big blob to the NW in your pic it just that a blob not 90E look at what I posted # 1663 that is where 90E is and look at the date and time
That's 90E. Post 1663, is 90L I'm not speaking about 90L.
1678. IKE
Quoting MahFL:
BP CEO yet to give green light to Top Kill attempt.


I noticed that too. They're so full of bull. They never should have drilled at 5,000 feet and were not prepared to deal with something like this at that depth.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Way too early to start with the proverbial "I told you so" prediction five months out Nostradomus........Good Morning to the Rest of You.
I agree,, GM
1680. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike are they going to try and plug that puppy today?


Not sure....they're not sure.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ?
Well I have been watching models with 90E and the GFS has been standing out to me. Take a look:

06z GFS 84 hours.
Quoting StormW:


No problem! How do you like your crow? LOL!!
LOL, I'm sure he/she will be eating a lot of that throughout the season.
BP sells oil and we buy the oil.
On a tropical note two points of interest...The E-pac side is really pulsing so we have to see whether all that energy will persist on that side, or, whether some will move up towards the Atlantic side per any model support. If the e-pac system generates a storm, then I think things will remain quiet on the SW Caribbean side until that area "gets out of the way" so to speak. As far as sheer levels, interesting to note that sheer is prohibitive in all of the MDR in the Atlantic basin, except, for the small pocket of 10 knots around 90L which is also showing some vorticity.....Not enough left there, I think, to form a storm but interesting to see convection fire up as it feeds off of the Gulf Stream right about now.........
1685. cg2916
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry


Shear will subside by mid-June. The dust changes, too.
1686. cg2916
So, 90L looks better, but its convection is still scattered.
MiamiHurricanes09 I am not talking about 90L I am talking about 90E
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
MiamiHurricanes09 I am not talking about 90L I am talking about 90E
Sorry I just have no clue what you wrote on post 1670.
1689. cg2916
I think 90E will be TD-1. It's monstrous, strong, and somewhat organized. I just think it'll take more like 24-36 hours, instead of 18. It might need to get its convection less scattered, and the NHC might be a bit conservative.
1690. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH

Good bye everyone. I will see you all later today.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is there any slight chance something could form from the blob south of Jamaica ?


upper diffluence

1693. DDR
good morning all
Unbelieveable rainfall in Trinidad since 10pm-now,close to 10 inches and its still pouring,got to be some records broken.
Look how the cold waters continue to expand in the equatorial Pacific.

1695. gator23
Quoting hurricanelover236:
Mark my words. At the end of the season im gonna b on here saying i told you. This hurricane season wont be much different than last year. Its gonna be very inactive due to high wind shear and dust that is not gonna subside The water temps are hot but all the other factors point to a quiet season. Sorry


What factors, The La Nina? the fact that SAL is lower that last year or the fact that wind shear is dropping?

Information Courtesy of Weather Underground
Graphic Courtesy of cyclonekid :))
1697. IKE
175 miles south of the GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC and moving NW...hard to see that getting into the Caribbean.....

1698. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 26 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH



Up to 50% now.
1699. cg2916
Quoting gator23:


What factors, The La Nina? the fact that SAL is lower that last yer or the fact that wind shear is dropping?


Owned...
1700. hercj
Atalntis coming home for the last time at 845am eastern. You folks in South Florida should get to see it as the approach to 13 is going to take it right over South fl.
1701. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC and moving NW...hard to see that getting into the Caribbean.....



It re-curves. I said the same thing with 90L on Saturday ("How can that possibly make it to NC?")
well it is the pic not what I wrote and it is post 1665
456, this is what NWS San Juan put out this morning about the big rain event expected.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
531 AM AST WED MAY 26 2010

...A VERY WET WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PUERTO RICO BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING...

A TONGUE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. THIS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS AND LOCAL ISLAND EFFECTS...WILL ACT TO ENHANCE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WHILE PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT BOTH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE FOCUS AT THIS TIME WILL BE MAINLY ON PUERTO RICO
BECAUSE OF THE PERSISTENT WET WEATHER EXPERIENCED OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS...AND THE FACT THAT THE SOILS ACROSS PUERTO RICO ARE
EXTREMELY SATURATED WITH SOME AREAS ALREADY HAVING EXPERIENCED RECENT
MUDSLIDES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN WHERE SOILS ARE ALREADY
SATURATED. DUE TO THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL COVERAGE OF THIS
EVENT...FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND URBAN AREAS IS EXPECTED...
ALONG WITH RISES IN MANY OF THE LARGER RIVERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO.

WHILE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...WILL PRECEDE THIS LARGER EVENT TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING.

WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE...WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF
2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THIS EVENT...WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS LOCALLY FAVORED AREAS. AT THIS TIME...THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION AS THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS EVENT.
1704. IKE
Quoting cg2916:


It re-curves. I said the same thing with 90L on Saturday ("How can that possibly make it to NC?")


And 90L didn't make it to NC.

I can't see this being much in the Caribbean. Looks like it's on it's way to being a TD then TS..on the Pacific side.

To get to the Caribbean where it's at + it's drifting NW....wouldn't be much left of it but rain.
90E cannot go NW for long...the steering flow over the next couple of days is in the opposite direction. It will retard the NW motion or force 90E ashore over SE Mexico.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
11N89W
HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW MEXICO. THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
20-25 KT SW INFLOW INTO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LOW. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED OFFSHORE WITHIN 150 NM
OF 12N95W AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75
NM OF COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

1703. Tropicsweatherpr 7:45 AM AST on May 26, 2010
456, this is what NWS San Juan put out this morning about the big rain event expected.


I did not read it but basically expect the same thing.
1708. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
...SPECIAL FEATURE...
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR
11N89W
HAS POOLED DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND SW MEXICO. THE 0244 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS
20-25 KT SW INFLOW INTO THIS BROAD CIRCULATION. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE OF
THE LOW. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT CONVECTION LIES ALONG THE COAST
BETWEEN THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND TEHUANTEPEC WITH NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ALSO NOTED OFFSHORE WITHIN 150 NM
OF 12N95W AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75
NM OF COAST BETWEEN 86W AND 96W. THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT
48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



Problem is....11N and 89W isn't ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
This is why the NW motion is short-lived. A shortwave will serve to pull 90E towards the N or NE (first image) and because of the position of the Pacific High, the system is blocked and cannot go west (maybe if it was shallower/weaker).




well IKE it seems that you can't read let me break it down for ya

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
(NOT THE COC OF INVEST 90-E) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
Quoting IKE:


Problem is....11N and 89W isn't ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
But they say "meanwhile" which leads me to believe it is separate from the surface circulation.
1712. gator23
Quoting cg2916:


Owned...


LOL! the difference between forecasts and a wild theory is facts.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well IKE it seems that you can't read let me break it down for ya

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
(NOT THE COC OF INVEST 90-E) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
No need to be insulting.
1714. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well IKE it seems that you can't read let me break it down for ya

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
(NOT THE COC OF INVEST 90-E) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS


Yes...I can read.

I doubt there's 2 systems. The one system is near 95 or 96W.
UK Met Office


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.05.2010

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 94.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.05.2010 12.4N 94.4W WEAK
00UTC 28.05.2010 13.0N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.05.2010 13.2N 95.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.05.2010 13.5N 94.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.05.2010 13.9N 92.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.05.2010 14.6N 89.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.05.2010 16.6N 87.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 31.05.2010 17.4N 86.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 31.05.2010 18.1N 85.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.06.2010 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well IKE it seems that you can't read let me break it down for ya

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CONTINUES SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT THE
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC.
(NOT THE COC OF INVEST 90-E) ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS


I have my doubts on this making to the Caribbean. As Weather456 said if it goes north into the gulf then it will get ripped apart.
Ok for being insulting I am just tring to get the point across hey IKE not saying that you can't read just saying that you are not paying attention to what they are saying
Also until we get some visible images we cannot make out the center. I have tried all techniques but there is too much dense overcast. The TPC center was wise to say convection, not the center, was consolidating south of the Gulf.
90L over the Gulf stream.

1720. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Ok for being insulting I am just tring to get the point across hey IKE not saying that you can't read just saying that you are not paying attention to what they are saying


(1)I read the new TWO.
(2)Locates an area of disturbed weather 175 south of the GOT in the east-PAC.
(3)That's near 95/96W.
(4)Latest TWO doesn't mention anything near 89/90W.

Maybe the discussion is outdated.
Morning everyone. Good news. President Obama told his staff, on day 37, to "plug the dam hole", so I'm sure something big will happen soon in the GOM...
The say if all else fails, go with numerical models for center fix so until visible images become available, this is the idea I'm going with:

Quoting Weather456:
Also until we get some visible images we cannot make out the center. I have tried all techniques but there is too much dense overcast. The TPC center was wise to say convection, not the center, was consolidating south of the Gulf.


Do you still think that 90E can cross into the Caribbean? Quite frankly im having my doubts.
1724. pottery
Good Morning
4.5 inches overnight and still coming down...
1725. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:


I have my doubts on this making to the Caribbean. As Weather456 said if it goes north into the gulf then it will get ripped apart.


I can see it giving rain to the western Caribbean. As far as an Atlantic TS or cane...I doubt it. But I could be wrong.

From what I've read on here the GOM is off limits...high shear.
EP, 90, 2010052612, , BEST, 0, 142N, 951W, 25, 1006, DB
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Do you still think that 90E can cross into the Caribbean? Quite frankly im having my doubts.


I pointed out that this morning.

Some of the models are showing that a piece of this energy will break off and head into the Northwestern Caribbean to become a depression there. While the models this morning are less enthusiastic of this scenario, it is feasible and conditions in the Northwest Caribbean in 4-7 days appear conducive.
Time is running out for 90L, it looks like dry air really got the best of it, you see it's trying to blow convection now tha it is in the Gulf Stream, but dry air has hampered anything deep from forming.
1729. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning
4.5 inches overnight and still coming down...

Hey pottery
close to 10 inches from 10pm-now,rainstorm easing up a bit,but this is rediculous.imagine this is just the start of the season....
1730. P451
12HR IR Loop ending 730AM ET

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Do you still think that 90E can cross into the Caribbean? Quite frankly im having my doubts.


Also a landfall in Mexico would lessen the chances. The most ideal point would of been that area where Alma made landfall back in 2008.

If for some reason it crossed the isthmus of Tehauntepec and into the BOC, its not gonna survive long with the SJS.

I don't see it moving NW for the long-term tho.

Lastly, we don't need the entire system crossing over, just a piece of energy and that remains to be seen.
hey jeff listen it is not going to the gulf it would go into the NW Caribbean I am not saying that I want it to come into the area but that is what I see happening
1733. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Hey pottery
close to 10 inches from 10pm-now,rainstorm easing up a bit,but this is rediculous.imagine this is just the start of the season....

10 INCHES ????
Any reports of floods between central and town? I have a meeting with the EMA at 10am!
1734. P451
Quoting reedzone:
Time is running out for 90L, it looks like dry air really got the best of it, you see it's trying to blow convection now tha it is in the Gulf Stream, but dry air has hampered anything deep from forming.


Not really sure why so much faith was put into the models which had it being anywhere from a strong TS to a Hurricane affecting the Carolinas.

Never looked good from the start. Seemed it's potential was a strong gale, possibly a hybrid, that some would argue should have been named.

Didn't even get halfway to that.

Yet it just illustrates that the season is here and when the conditions ripen we're going to get a lot of activity.
1735. pottery
I just heard that there is 4' of flooding in Caparo (again)
1736. IKE
After looking at a shear map of the GOM, by the GFS....90E would get ripped apart by high shear.
1737. DDR
Yes,between 10 and 2am had 6 inches alone.I'm out hopefully wasa lifts the banns.;aterz
Quoting pottery:
I just heard that there is 4' of flooding in Caparo (again)


No end in sight Pottery. Expect this all day.
1739. pottery
Quoting DDR:
Yes,between 10 and 2am had 6 inches alone.I'm out hopefully wasa lifts the banns.;aterz

I am sure they will.
I am out till later today...
1740. DDR
4 feet? thats bad but expected,caparo always floods.later pot
ok you win

EP, 90, 2010052612, , BEST, 0, 142N, 951W, 25, 1006, DB
1742. pottery
Quoting Jeff9641:


No end in sight Pottery. Expect this all day.

Yeah I see that.
Pottery, this rain event was not expected there right,in other words caught you by surprise?
1744. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Pottery, this rain event was not expected there right?

There is a tropical wave passing through.
we saw it coming, but not this heavily.
We are very close to seeing a rapidly developing system in the EPAC. Yes there are 2 lows and the western one maybe the more dominate one. We need more model data to accurately asses where this will go. If this crosses over Mexico then things could get interesting down the road.
1746. hercj
Atlantis 22 min out.
Quoting P451:


Not really sure why so much faith was put into the models which had it being anywhere from a strong TS to a Hurricane affecting the Carolinas.

Never looked good from the start. Seemed it's potential was a strong gale, possibly a hybrid, that some would argue should have been named.

Didn't even get halfway to that.

Yet it just illustrates that the season is here and when the conditions ripen we're going to get a lot of activity.


Wind shear was high, but lowered tremendously over the system, it was heading into the Gulf Stream, dry air was the only factor that would inhibit development. I'm giving 90L a few more hours, and so are few on here, it's not foolish, it's smart cause surprises can occur. 90L is already Subtropical according to the graphs and cyclone phase maps. Accu-METS yesterday in the video believed it deserved a name, but convection was too low. So I'm not giving up on it yet, 5-10 more hours.
1748. hercj
Atlantis is right over 90E
Good morning all

Interesting discussion as to how the evolution of the EPAC features will play out. I say features because it appears to me that what we have going on is two seperate areas of low pressure competing with each other in close proximity. The one furthest East, although smaller in aerial coverage, appears to be somewhat better organized.

That feature is slowly moving more to the NW while the larger complex is moving more to the WNW creating some separation between the two.

The models still develop a crossover feature in the Gulf of Honduras and the GFDL run of 90L shows this as well.

While it is true that mountainous terrain would prove a challenge for a transition from the EPAC to the W Caribbean it is not out of the realm of possibility. Shear would have to start falling off very soon though as values in the NW Caribbean are very high.
1750. IKE
90E....



Quoting Jeff9641:
We are very close to seeing a rapidly developing system in the EPAC. Yes there are 2 lows and the western one maybe the more dominate one. We need more model data to accurately asses where this will go. If this crosses over Mexico then things could get interesting down the road.
Sorry, this just doesn't look right. Assess. LOL
Remember 10am tomorrow, NOAA releases their hurricane outlook.

Im expecting a forecast of 14-18 from them.
The second most low is moving NW at about 5 mph with a expected turn NNW or N crossing Mexico and getting into the Bay of Campeche. Then 2 options (1)system goes to Mexico (2) system of some sort moves with the upper flow toward florida.
90E will more than likely become a depression today.
Quoting pottery:

There is a tropical wave passing through.
we saw it coming, but not this heavily.


Ok good. What this shows IMO is that when we see the sat images of weak waves,dont think it stays that way because the wave may get into a more favorable enviroment like interacting with an upper trough or getting into a pocket of less shear and do what you have seen there.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sorry, this just doesn't look right. Assess. LOL


LOL!!!
It is clear from this image that the smaller of the two features is the one that has the better vorticity signature. It is this feature that will be the genesis of the W Caribbean low IF it happens.

Quoting WinterAnalystwx13:
90E will become a depression today.


TS by tonight or tomorrow and hurricane by landfall.
satellite representation is impressive with this second low. This will cause for rapid intensification with this system.
1760. hercj
atlantis over fl
Quoting reedzone:


Wind shear was high, but lowered tremendously over the system, it was heading into the Gulf Stream, dry air was the only factor that would inhibit development. I'm giving 90L a few more hours, and so are few on here, it's not foolish, it's smart cause surprises can occur. 90L is already Subtropical according to the graphs and cyclone phase maps. Accu-METS yesterday in the video believed it deserved a name, but convection was too low. So I'm not giving up on it yet, 5-10 more hours.


This is one dog that never had its day.

Somebody wake up Atticus Finch and tell him to bring his gun. There's something out there that needs to be put out of its misery.
1762. IKE


INV/XX/90E
MARK
13.5N/95.6W
MOVEMENT NNW
Quoting CycloneOz:


This is one dog that never had its day.

Somebody wake up Atticus Finch and tell him to bring his gun. There's something out there that needs to be put out of its misery.


Hey OZ, look what we have in EPAC this morning. System is looking impressive. I am waiting eagerly for new model runs for the second low as this system will eventually lift north and get into the Southern Gulf.
Heard the sonic boom in WPB, FL.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Remember 10am tomorrow, NOAA releases their hurricane outlook.

Im expecting a forecast of 14-18 from them.
i bet it will be 19 to 21 + for there outlook
Quoting IKE:


I can see it giving rain to the western Caribbean. As far as an Atlantic TS or cane...I doubt it. But I could be wrong.

From what I've read on here the GOM is off limits...high shear.


All right. The Gulf is "really" closed this year. Off limits to tropical activity AND pleasure activities by humans.

The GOO has become a men's restroom, closed for use until the attendant has had time to clean it.

Let's just hope that a big, bad ass 'cane doesn't need to go in there to take a dump while this cleanup is going on!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i bet it will be 19 to 21 + for there outlook


I doubt they'll go that high.

Remember its NOAA, not Joe Bastardi.
1770. IKE
I give the GOM until July 1st and a named system will be in there some where.
1771. guygee
Two very loud sonic booms must mean the shuttle landed at KSC. Rattled the big window in front of my computer very hard, I'm surprised it didn't break. Scared the * out of me, the dog won't stop barking either.
Quoting CycloneOz:


All right. The Gulf is "really" closed this year. Off limits to tropical activity AND pleasure activities by humans.

The GOO has become a men's restroom, closed for use until the attendant has had time to clean it.

Let's just hope that a big, bad ass 'cane doesn't need to go in there to take a dump while this cleanup is going on!
Too bad a nice cane can't pick it up and dump it in BP's headquarters. I was watching it on CNN last night with Anderson Cooper and he was saying the BP big shots wouldn't answer his calls for an interview.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey OZ, look what we have in EPAC this morning. System is looking impressive. I am waiting eagerly for new model runs for the second low as this system will eventually lift north and get into the Southern Gulf.


Oh yeah, that EPAC system has my attention. If it should spin up as quickly as suggested that it can, it should be very impressive to see.

Then it's landfall...and exit.

One of the problems I'll never solve is foreign travel with the live webcam.

I can only use the webcam if I have an internet connection...which means I'd be limited to a hotel or some other foreign business with wireless internet.

My experience is that these foreign wireless connections don't have alot of power or range for my needs.
1774. IKE
What a scenic view of the landing. We can do all that well, but BP can't stop an oil leak.

Job well done Atlantis.....retired.
Quoting IKE:
What a scenic view of the landing. We can do all that well, but BP can't stop an oil leak.

Job well done Atlantis.....retired.


Yep...stick a fork in 'er. She's done.
1776. hercj
Atlantis home safely for the last time.




Ships Text it has backed off of rapid intensification.
I think you guys are going a bit wild on rapid intensification of 90-E
Quoting CycloneOz:


Oh yeah, that EPAC system has my attention. If it should spin up as quickly as suggested that it can, it should be very impressive to see.

Then it's landfall...and exit.

One of the problems I'll never solve is foreign travel with the live webcam.

I can only use the webcam if I have an internet connection...which means I'd be limited to a hotel or some other foreign business with wireless internet.

My experience is that these foreign wireless connections don't have alot of power or range for my needs.


Model intialization on this system later will be interesting I believe. I do agree shear is high in the gulf but if the system moves with the shear then this system could survive.
Quoting IKE:
What a scenic view of the landing. We can do all that well, but BP can't stop an oil leak.

Job well done Atlantis.....retired.


I can just see all the NASA shuttle refurbishers standing around outside of the hanger wondering "What do we do now?"
It appears to me that the two areas are getting a little further apart and the southern one seems to be a little closer to the coast.
epac reminds me of a song

you spin me right round baby right round like a record baby right round right round.

a little birdy is telling me that a possible T.C.F.A. coming soon to epac basin
Space shuttle Atlantis returns I am watching it live... I just landed like 5 min ago...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Model intialization on this system later will be interesting I believe. I do agree shear is high in the gulf but if the system moves with the shear then this system could survive.


Could survive in the Gulf? Those are some long odds this morning, ya think?

However...I am prepared to fly out to Ft. Lauderdale, FL if I need to do so.
738

WHXX01 KMIA 261235

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1235 UTC WED MAY 26 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP902010) 20100526 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100526 1200 100527 0000 100527 1200 100528 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 14.2N 95.1W 13.7N 96.3W 12.8N 97.3W 11.9N 98.0W

BAMD 14.2N 95.1W 14.7N 96.3W 15.1N 97.5W 15.3N 98.6W

BAMM 14.2N 95.1W 14.2N 96.5W 14.0N 97.9W 13.4N 99.2W

LBAR 14.2N 95.1W 15.1N 96.1W 16.2N 97.2W 17.3N 97.9W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 39KTS 45KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100528 1200 100529 1200 100530 1200 100531 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.4N 98.5W 10.8N 97.5W 10.6N 94.7W 11.0N 92.9W

BAMD 15.5N 99.6W 15.9N 100.9W 17.4N 100.8W 20.4N 98.8W

BAMM 12.9N 100.6W 12.6N 102.4W 12.5N 103.3W 12.6N 103.9W

LBAR 18.6N 97.9W 20.6N 94.5W 21.2N 87.0W 25.6N 76.8W

SHIP 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS

DSHP 51KTS 55KTS 55KTS 54KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 95.1W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 93.6W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 7KT

LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 92.3W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 160NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
sorry.. It just landed 5 min...LOL
1787. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:


I can just see all the NASA shuttle refurbishers standing around outside of the hanger wondering "What do we do now?"


I just thought about that.
My understanding is Atlantis will be prepared as the rescue shuttle for the next two launches, so not out to pasture quite yet.
1789. guygee
Re: 1774
Well said Ike. A sad day on the Space Coast.
I wish NASA had listened to its engineers and went with the Jupiter Direct proposal.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:




Ships Text it has backed off of rapid intensification.


Notice the BAM model moving this toward Florida, others may follow suit.
Quoting CycloneOz:


All right. The Gulf is "really" closed this year. Off limits to tropical activity AND pleasure activities by humans.

The GOO has become a men's restroom, closed for use until the attendant has had time to clean it.

Let's just hope that a big, bad ass 'cane doesn't need to go in there to take a dump while this cleanup is going on!



Articulately put, my friend.
Are you talking about 90E?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Notice the BAM model moving this toward Florida, others may follow suit.


BAMD yes, but that is 7 days out, a lot can change.
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
I can just see all the NASA shuttle refurbishers standing around outside of the hanger wondering "What do we do now?"


Colonize Mars and the Moon?


How old are you wadedaniel? Cause I'll probably be pushing up daisies when they get around to that kind of adventure.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Could survive in the Gulf? Those are some long odds this morning, ya think?

However...I am prepared to fly out to Ft. Lauderdale, FL if I need to do so.


Yes, but most May storms in the Gulf in May encounter high shear but do maintain TS strength as they tend to move with the upper flow.
1797. IKE
Memo to Kiran Chetry of CNN: You are pretty to look at as the sun comes up over Grand Isle,LA.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes, but most May storms in the Gulf in May encounter high shear but do maintain TS strength as they tend to move with the upper flow.


I've seen it before. But I'm a heavyweight contender. A TS is too lightweight for me to bother with this year.

When you're ready for a King Kong, like I am, wasting time on a PeeWee Herman seems a little pointless.
1799. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:


Notice the BAM model moving this toward Florida, others may follow suit.


The BAMMD measures what would happen if a TC were to form at the deeper layers of the atmoshpere. This should not be used for forecasting yet. Right now your best bet it to follow the GLOBAL models GFS, NAM, Canadian Model, or the European Model.
Met Service of Jamaica Website

May 26, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.

LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Trough across Jamaica.

Comment…
The Trough will linger in the vicinity of Jamaica until Thursday. Additionally, an Area of Low Pressure is expected to develop across the western Caribbean by the weekend.

TODAY'S FORECAST
This Morning… Isolated showers across sections of eastern parishes, Partly cloudy elsewhere.

This Afternoon… Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across sections of northern and southeastern parishes.

Tonight… Isolated showers will linger across sections of eastern parishes, Partly cloudy elsewhere.


3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Thurs & Fri… Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Sat… Periods of showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon.

Regionally… The Tropical Waves will continue to migrate across the southern Caribbean. Also, an Area of Low Pressure now north of the Bahamas will gradually weaken as it moves toward northeast.

rlb
OMG go to live feed now, they are doing something! I think a robot is working on something. It comes and goes but something is happening. its so exciting to watch this unfold!


Link
The GFS ensembles also bring this into Florida. For sure expect a change to widespread heavy rains across FL this weekend and next week.
Land interaction maybe an issue with this epac low. ECM has been going gang busters with this disturbance but yesterday's 12z run dropped it. Nothing on the 00z. LGEM has modest intensification and only brings it up to 46kts.
anyway I will wait for this evening or thursday morn to belive the models normaly it would take 24-48 hours for the models get it right and I think at that time they will recurve it into the far southern mexico or Guatemala
Actually, IKE and I first met during a TS...Erin it was...back in August 2007.

I went on WU and told everyone I was intercepting the system. IKE responded that I might be wasting my time doing that.

I responded back by laying into him, because the reason for my trip was to test the equipment I was beginning to collect to do what I do now so well!

I got banned for laying into IKE! (Remember that, my friend? :)



I was actually only 30 feet north of the center when that storm passed overhead. It was a great success for me and PensacolaDoug, as he was the one who put me there right on time for landfall.
Quoting gator23:


The BAMMD measures what would happen if a TC were to form at the deeper layers of the atmoshpere. This should not be used for forecasting yet. Right now your best bet it to follow the GLOBAL models GFS, NAM, Canadian Model, or the European Model.


BAMs can be used as a proxy for vertical shear, in this case with the wide spread of their tracks indicates significant shear from the SE.
1809. gator23
Quoting Jeff9641:
The GFS ensembles also bring this into Florida. For sure expect a change to widespread heavy rains across FL this weekend and next week.


Maybe. it is a bit to early to tell. While it is true that climatologically speaking that is the path it would go.
1810. gator23
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


BAMs can be used as a proxy for vertical shear, in this case with the wide spread of their tracks indicates significant shear from the SE.


I didnt know that. Interesting. Good point
IMO:90L's a TD as we speek!!!!,drifting wsw...
@ Pottery. Stay dry and send some rain for us in JA.
Quoting Jeff9641:
The GFS ensembles also bring this into Florida. For sure expect a change to widespread heavy rains across FL this weekend and next week.


Afternoon scattered thunderstorms through the weekenend but no real wide spread heavy rain potential across dade.
Quoting gator23:


I didnt know that. Interesting. Good point


Good source is to read through the model descriptions on the NHC site.
the models are in a mess now so I am not bothered to look at it again till the 18Z run today and tomrrow's run to get a better idea of that it is doing and how the models coresponeds to it
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
They must be doing something pretty big right now. Lots of mud just got stirred up.


Some of that is just prop wash stirring things up from some of the ROVs.....Looks like its "back to normal" right now......I'm waiting for big tube to come down and drop a ton of concrete....
90L now has banding features,wrapping into the COC....
1819. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:
Actually, IKE and I first met during a TS...Erin it was...back in August 2007.

I went on WU and told everyone I was intercepting the system. IKE responded that I might be wasting my time doing that.

I responded back by laying into him, because the reason for my trip was to test the equipment I was beginning to collect to do what I do now so well!

I got banned for laying into IKE! (Remember that, my friend? :)



I was actually only 30 feet north of the center when that storm passed overhead. It was a great success for me and PensacolaDoug, as he was the one who put me there right on time for landfall.


I think I remember it.
1820. gator23
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Good source is to read through the model descriptions on the NHC site.


Read it. I was half right. Thanks for the info.
Quoting stillwaiting:
90L now has banding features,wrapping into the COC....


I'am not to enthusiastic on this thing developing. Most recent runs from the ECM have dropped this low completly and the LGEM has modest intensification and only brings it up to 46kts.
Quoting hurricane23:


I'am not to enthusiastic on this thing developing. Most recent runs from the ECM have dropped this low completly and the LGEM has modest intensification and only brings it up to 46kts.


Are you referring to 90E?
JaX long range looks interesting,the LLC where convection formed is a smaller warm core surface feature rotating sw around the perifery of the ULL, its also over the GS,if it doesn't get tagged in the next 12hrs,it never will imo,if the surface feature continues on its current path it'll be coming very close to FL's east coast w/heavy rains and winds to 35mph,imo..
me talk'n 90L,not sure about adrian...
Quoting Weather456:


Are you referring to 90E?


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.


So you are saying you're not enthusiastic on it developing given the satellite presentations and conditions in the environment. But the ECM dropped it.


90e appears on coarse convective feedback shrinking in main zone but maintaining with v convective feedback from a feeder band that has dev to its se closer to coast heavy flooding rains are likly as system contines in its developement it appears a TD is forming in this region at this time
1831. pottery
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep epac disturbance. ECM has nothing.
just because you can't see it does not mean it ain't there
Quoting Weather456:


So you are saying you're not enthusiastic on it developing given the satellite presentations and conditions in the environment. But the ECM dropped it.


Yea just took a peak at the sat presentation and convection is trying to consolidate down there and upper conditions also appear somewhat favorable. All iam saying is land interaction maybe an issue with this low and could be the reason the euro dropped it. Not buying the ships intensity forecast at this point to hurricane. I'll go with the LGEM.
Quoting pottery:
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----


HPC plot shows you got 132mm!
Quoting hurricane23:


Yea just took a peak at the sat presentation and convection is trying to consolidate down there and upper conditions also appear somewhat favorable. All iam saying is land interaction maybe an issue with this low and could be the reason the euro dropped it. Not buying the ships intensity forecast at this point to hurricane. I'll go with the LGEM.


I'll have to agree you there. The LGEM is a relaible intensity guidance.

90e looking better and better in each frame....It will probably quiet things down for the NW Caribbean for the June start of the Atlantic season if it takes off and makes it into the first storm of the e-pac season.....
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


HPC plot shows you got 132mm!


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.
Quoting Weather456:


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.


Trinidad...


1841. pottery
Quoting Weather456:


132mm for Tobago.

Trinidad picked up 170mm.

I am in Central Trinidad.
Measured 133 mm at my location.
DDR, in North Trinidad, in the foothills of the North Range, says he got 255 mm !!! from 10 pm last night.
Quoting pottery:

I am in Central Trinidad.
Measured 133 mm at my location.
DDR, in North Trinidad, in the foothills of the North Range, says he got 255 mm !!! from 10 pm last night.


Yea, i expect the higher elevation would account for more rainfall.
So far May has been wetter than normal here. It rains like almost everyday now.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I'm not very good with the geography of the individual islands :( Also not sure if he is Trinidad or Tobago.


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.
Quoting pottery:
Well, I tried to get out of here, to go to the City.
But the Highway is at a standstill. Apparently there is water over the road in several areas.
More rain is coming----


I keep telling you to send it to Jamaica!!! Still waiting...

Stay safe and dry!!!
1846. pottery
Quoting kimoskee:


I keep telling you to send it to Jamaica!!! Still waiting...

Stay safe and dry!!!

Sorry for the delay.
I am working on it!
But talk to Keeperofthegate, he seems to have the 'ability' LOL
Taco's looking for help today on where he should position himself for chasing tornadoes.

He is currently in Amarillo.
1848. pottery
Quoting CycloneOz:


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.

Very true!
Quoting CycloneOz:


One of the joys I take away from participating in this blog is that it is a truly "international" forum.


Truly a mixing pot....
Quoting Weather456:
So far May has been wetter than normal here. It rains like almost everyday now.


What island you on?

So far we have Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, any more?
Quoting kimoskee:


What island you on?

So far we have Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, any more?


Saint Kitts
New Blog
Saint Kitts Photo Gallery - a special blog on September 19 2009.

1854. eddye
SO U PEOPLE THINK THIS COULD BE HEADING TO FLORIDA
Something I've noticed is how SAL has been lowering off the coast of Africa for the last 10 days or so. Now today it's almost completely gone. Once we get to Cape Verde season, and if this stays the same, watch out!

Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?
1857. BVI
Quoting kimoskee:
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?


Tortola, British Virgin Islands
1858. A4Guy
question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week.
Quoting kimoskee:
Cayman, Jamaica, Trinidad, St. Kitts, anymore?
There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more.
1860. MahFL
Shear is down to 10 Kts over 90L.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
There is also Bahamas, Barbados,Bermuda, Puerto Rico, Belize and I am sure there are more.


The power of the internet. Amazing!!!
Bermuda
Bahama
c'mon pretty Mama
Key Largo
Montego
Baby why don't we go...
Blogs quiet...
I guess all the singing ran them away...
Better stick with singing in the shower!!!
LOL
Have a great day. I'll check back later. Peace.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Could survive in the Gulf? Those are some long odds this morning, ya think?

However...I am prepared to fly out to Ft. Lauderdale, FL if I need to do so.


Hey Oz, I dont know if people are aware or not... the new international airport, Northwest fla airport just opened and they have all kinds of grand opening introductory deals on flights. Like you can fly from there to orlando, nashville and ohio somewhere one way for 49 bucks.
to tune of beverly hillbillies:

come and listen to a story bout a project called top kill

it all started from a tune known as drill baby drill

Quoting A4Guy:
question - wasn't NOAA going to release their forecase for the Atl season last week? Have not seen anything. Colo Satate should be next week.


All the NOAA officials were in Washington for the Oiled Gulf mess hearings so it has been rescheduled for tomorrow the 27th.