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Little change to 90L; new African tropical wave is worth watching

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:53 PM GMT on July 30, 2010

Invest 90L is a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic near 10N 33W with a very limited amount of heavy thunderstorm activity but a decent amount of spin. It does not have a well-defined surface circulation, and has shown little change in organization today. CIMMS wind-shear analyses show a low amount of wind shear (5 - 10 knots) over 90L, and sea surface temperatures are a record warm 29°C. The wave currently is in a moist environment and is not being affected by the dry Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to its northwest. The disturbance has moved far enough away from the Equator to leverage the Earth's spin to help it develop. The Saharan Air Layer with its dust and dry air lurks just to the north of 90L, but the SHIPS model predicts 90L will remain far enough from the dry air over the next five days so that it will not interfere with development.


Figure 1. Afternoon visible satellite image from 2pm EDT 7/30/10 of the relatively tiny 90L, and the large new tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday.

Forecast for 90L
One factor inhibiting development of 90L this week will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) The MJO currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased.

Perhaps the main factor interfering with 90L's development will be the presence of the large tropical wave to the east of 90L that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday. This new wave is large enough and close enough to 90L that it will probably begin to dominate regional weather patterns this weekend, stealing away 90L's inflow of low-level moist air. The new wave may also act to bring sinking air over 90L that will tend to suppress 90L's thunderstorm activity. It may turn out that the new wave will also steal some of 90L's spin, and end up being a threat to develop itself later on this weekend.

The latest 8am EDT (12Z) model runs for 90L show very little in the way of development of the storm. The predominant track forecast takes 90L into or just north of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands about 6 - 8 days from now. Looking at climatology based on research done by Dr. Bob Hart at Florida State University,, 90L has a 19% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by 2pm Sunday. NHC is putting these odds at 20%. Dr. Hart also has an experimental product showing that historically, about 30% of all tropical cyclones that develop at 90L's current position eventually hit land as a hurricane. Of course, 90L is not yet a tropical cyclone, and I think that the large tropical wave off the coast of Africa will kill 90L this weekend.

Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean, south of the Dominican Republic, is moving west at 15 - 20 mph with no signs of development. The wave is under a high 20 knots of wind shear, due to strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper level low centered north of Puerto Rico. This shear is expected to remain remain high through Saturday. By Sunday, when the wave will be approaching Nicaragua, the wave will be far enough away from the upper level low that shear should fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots. Some development is possible on Sunday, but the wave will have only about a 1-day window to develop before its westerly motion brings it inland over Nicaragua on Monday. NHC is giving this wave a 10% chance of developing into a tropical depression by 2pm Sunday.

Extreme cold records for 2010
In my post yesterday, I reported that fourteen countries had set their all-time hottest temperature record this year. I neglected to mention that one country has also set its coldest temperature in recorded history mark in 2010. Guinea had its coldest temperature in its history on January 9, 2010, when the mercury hit 1.4°C (34.5°F) at Mali-ville in the Labe region. Of the 229 countries with extreme coldest temperature records, 14 of these records have occurred in the past ten years (6% of all countries). There have been five times as many (74) extreme hottest temperature records in the past ten years (33% of all countries.) My source for extreme weather records is Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather.

New study finds huge drop in the plants that form the base of the oceanic food chain
A study published this week in the journal Nature documents that microscopic marine phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food chain, have declined by 40% globally since 1950. Joe Romm at climateprogress.org discusses the implications, using this headline:

Scientists may have found the most devastating impact yet of human-caused global warming — a 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 linked to the rise in ocean sea surface temperatures. If confirmed, it may represent the single most important finding of the year in climate science.

I plan to discuss this paper next week.

Next update
I'll have an update this weekend, probably by 8pm EDT Saturday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Cybrteddy how you been?
Hey FloridaHeat. Couple of words of advice.

First, as StormwatcherCI noted, this site/blog can be a good source of information, and can be educational, but you will also find a good number of wishcasters, hoping for something tropical to give them something to worry about. I'm sure I'll get flamed for that comment, but it's true.

Second, living in Florida, we get our share of bad weather, tropical or otherwise. I've seen summer squalls that have been just as damaging as a tropical storm, and are far more dangerous, as they happen with very little warning.

Third, the key is simply being prepared and paying attention. You don't need to panic about a storm that's 1,500 miles away, and may never form. You panic when it's 15 miles away and you haven't prepared. Keep an eye on the weather and check this (and other) hurricane sites for information. Trust me, there will be plenty of other people panicking on this board if there's a problem. ;-)

In short, relax and enjoy the Florida lifestyle. I think your new neighbor is just having some fun with you.
I'm thinking that ex90L and the twave to it's east won't really interact that much. They've kept fairly even spacing between each other for the past 24 hours.
1504. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:


I don't know about this one. There definitely seems to be a chance for development in the SW Caribbean. We'll see if the convection redevelops as it gets closer to that area.


It seems the NCEP models see an increase in moisture in the Western Caribbean. FWIW, the NAM has a cyclone down there
1505. bappit
Quoting Drakoen:
What is this? A little MJO upward motion with our AOI SW of the CV islands.


So the MJO does not rule. Or is the Atlantic basin now an MJO originator?
Quoting Drakoen:
What is this? A little MJO upward motion with our AOI SW of the CV islands.


Upward MJO is real evident over the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea regions. This will slowly progress eastward over the African continent and into the MDR next 7-10 days.

In other words, the lull will be coming to an abrupt end soon. Hopefully the MDR does not have a TC convention, because things may become rather ugly, real fast!!

Quoting Drakoen:


It seems the NCEP models see an increase in moisture in the Western Caribbean. FWIW, the NAM has a cyclone down there


Yup. I still think there is a chance for some development there.
1508. Drakoen
Quoting bappit:

So the MJO does not rule. Or is the Atlantic basin now an MJO originator?


I don't understand the question...
Quoting MrMarcus:
Hey FloridaHeat. Couple of words of advice.

First, as StormwatcherCI noted, this site/blog can be a good source of information, and can be educational, but you will also find a good number of wishcasters, hoping for something tropical to give them something to worry about. I'm sure I'll get flamed for that comment, but it's true.

Second, living in Florida, we get our share of bad weather, tropical or otherwise. I've seen summer squalls that have been just as damaging as a tropical storm, and are far more dangerous, as they happen with very little warning.

Third, the key is simply being prepared and paying attention. You don't need to panic about a storm that's 1,500 miles away, and may never form. You panic when it's 15 miles away and you haven't prepared. Keep an eye on the weather and check this (and other) hurricane sites for information. Trust me, there will be plenty of other people panicking on this board if there's a problem. ;-)

In short, relax and enjoy the Florida lifestyle. I think your new neighbor is just having some fun with you.


well put
12z NAM @ 48 hours:



and ice still melts
Quoting Drakoen:


Thanks Nrt


NAM is also three hour on that site.
Quoting bappit:

For life and death decisions do not rely on this blog. Go to www.nhc.noaa.gov.
Well, I do agree with you to a certain degree but I find that on here you get more up to date information whereas NHC does not update as often.
Quoting Drakoen:


Read post 1430


I think I understand... :)
Yeah not bad for a 3 flavored ice cream if I must say so myself #1467. Where did all the blobs go are we down to just one. I'm warning you people I smell some GW blogs coming up, get busy #1467.
1516. bappit
Quoting Drakoen:


I don't understand the question...

Where does the MJO come from?
good afternoon keeperofthegate :)
12Z GFS has 90L just off the Florida East coast on August 10th

wow going even further; 90L moves up the east coast and then another system develops behind it

at the end of the run so far, a 3rd system develops right by the CV Islands

so much for the GFS not showing anything lol
1519. Drakoen
GFS 12z takes 90L all the way to the Bahamas.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


and ice still melts


Ice @ the North Pole has to freeze @ lower temperatures, b/c it takes more energy to freeze salt water, so the real melting/freezing point of salt-ice is around 26 Degrees. Physics experiment from last year. :)
Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z GFS has 90L just off the Florida East coast on August 10th


Likely a slow-mover then. 10 days just to get to there.
Interesting that the GFS develops 90L now.
1523. bappit
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


and ice still melts

I could make a gif of a series of images to give some animation to that.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
12Z GFS has 90L just off the Florida East coast on August 10th

wow going even further; 90L moves up the east coast and then another system develops behind it

at the end of the run so far, a 3rd system develops right by the CV Islands

so much for the GFS not showing anything lol

So 90L has been re-classified?
1525. OneDrop
Hollywood, Redfish are one of my favorites. Just got done cleaning a huge amount of snapper from fishing last night. Where did you catch your redfish?
Quoting gordydunnot:
Yeah not bad for a 3 flavored ice cream if I must say so myself #1467. Where did all the blobs go are we down to just one. I'm warning you people I smell some GW blogs coming up, get busy #1467.


"Neapolitan" ain't just the goofy tri-colored ice cream; it's also what you call a resident of Naples...including Naples, Florida, where I live. (But thanks for the compliment.) :-)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Interesting that the GFS develops 90L now.


here is what was funny, I think IKE said earlier when 90L was deactivated that all the models were wrong; well it isnt like the system is just gone now that its not an invest and the models could still very well be right
1528. DDR
Someone keeps hiding your posts ho77ywood,lol.
In the meantime its been rainy now in North Trinidad for 3 days.
Quoting extreme236:
12z NAM @ 48 hours:



I'm not sure if I buy the NAM or not. Do you?
Quoting Snowlover123:

So 90L has been re-classified?


No, I do not believe so. I do think it should be though.

Quoting Orcasystems:
Anyone here from Gainesville?


Yes, been in Gainesville, FL since 1984.
Quoting texwarhawk:


You know those storm lines we get here in tornado alley with 60+ mph winds. Unless your close to the eye of a major its a lot like that only the storm line lasts a couple hrs. Can be frightning at night but during the day its amazing/intense. But then again I love the intensity of severe weather.




Ive lived in Florida for 14 years, yes they get worse tornados and hail back in the plains, but such things are so isolated in their range, that's irrelevant, everyone thinks their storms are bad till they come to central Florida. Our every day thunderstorm on the sea breeze is worse then all the hype over frontal thunderstorms that have all those dang watch boxes further north and an overload of warnings.

Half the time when we get severe weather, we don't even gt warnings here, much less giant watch box hype. When we do get severe weather warnings in central Florida, you better prepare for one bada** thunderstorm!
Interesting. GFS sends another CV storm in the same general direction after 90L.
1534. 10Speed
Quoting texwarhawk:


You know those storm lines we get here in tornado alley with 60+ mph winds. Unless your close to the eye of a major its a lot like that only the storm line lasts a couple hrs. Can be frightning at night but during the day its amazing/intense. But then again I love the intensity of severe weather.


A couple of hours is an understatement. You can be substantially away from the eye and still get pounded with much more than the 60+ mph wind you refer to for many hours. Been there and done that several times and have never been in the eye. It's not fun.
1535. Drakoen
Quoting bappit:

Where does the MJO come from?


The MJO is simply areas where convection is enhanced or suppressed. The MJO is governed by atmospheric circulations coupled with convection and is influenced by ENSO conditions.
Quoting Snowlover123:


I'm not sure if I buy the NAM or not. Do you?


Eh, I'm not sure yet. I'd like to see if convection has redeveloped by tomorrow morning. If it hasn't, then I'd say most likely not.
Quoting extreme236:
Interesting. GFS sends another CV storm in the same general direction after 90L.


It develops 4 systems

SW Caribbean, 90L and 2 waves behind 90L
Quoting AllStar17:


No, I do not believe so. I do think it should be though.



Nothing on the ATCF site yet. I imagine it will be reclassfied after the next TWO.
GFS basically showing 2 potent systems in its run and 2 weak ones

Oh well it's freezes my little brain just contemplating such things.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


It develops 4 systems

SW Caribbean, 90L and 2 waves behind 90L


If that were to verify, we'd have an average August's activity in just around two weeks time...and who knows what other systems could pop up.
Quoting OneDrop:
Hollywood, Redfish are one of my favorites. Just got done cleaning a huge amount of snapper from fishing last night. Where did you catch your redfish?


this little place called bunchy beach they built new little docks and its back country so with my powerpro I cast a country mile and just sat my pole down and then it was singing (love that sound) but yea it was my first time there and I saw 2 at least 40" snook I caught trout (too small) but it is def a great fishing spot!
Hey to all the nerds, ho77lywood is probably a dude pretending to be a girl lol, even if shes not, this a weather blog not an online dating service, keep the focus on weather, boys, shall we? lolol
1544. Drakoen
It looks like the GFS is seeing the "season"
Death Spiral of the oceans....
This doesn't look good,
Link
1546. SLU
Quoting DDR:
Someone keeps hiding your posts ho77ywood,lol.
In the meantime its been rainy now in North Trinidad for 3 days.


Is it raining in Port of Spain?

I'll be coming to take up residence in Trinidad from late August.
Quoting Boca:
Forecast for 90L
One factor inhibiting development of 90L this week will be the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO.) The MJO currently favors downward motion over the tropical Atlantic, which will act to decrease the chances of tropical storm formation. The Madden-Julian oscillation is a pattern of enhanced rainfall that travels along the Equator from west to east. The pattern has a wet phase with large-scale rising air and enhanced thunderstorm activity, followed by a dry phase with large-scale sinking air and suppressed thunderstorm activity. Each cycle lasts approximately 30 - 60 days. When the Madden-Julian oscillation is in its wet phase over a hurricane-prone region, the chances for tropical storm activity are greatly increased.

I am confused. Is it in the WET phase or the dry phase?

MJO DRY PHASE-is when air is subsiding, or sinking, in the atmosphere. This inhibits TC development. Warm air sinks, drying out, like an area of High Pressure. We are currently in this phase.

MJO WET PHASE-is where moist, warm tropical air rises due to the excessive heat. Rising air creates a general area of disturbed weather, creating lower pressures, rising air and development of TC in the MDR.

I am not a meteorologist, I have followed weather for 42 yrs. My strengths are winter storms and severe weather.

I would really be very concerned about the next MJO wet phase, which is scheduled to start on or around 8-8-10..
1548. bappit
Quoting Drakoen:


The MJO is simply areas where convection is enhanced or suppressed. The MJO is governed by atmospheric circulations coupled with convection and is influenced by ENSO conditions.

The MJO is a wave moving through the atmosphere. I guess it has to start somewhere or something triggers it.
:(
Quoting DDR:
Someone keeps hiding your posts ho77ywood,lol.
In the meantime its been rainy now in North Trinidad for 3 days.

:(
I think that sonn models will change to development of ex-90Lpossible reactivate/or pre-91L and tracks further west further into the caribbean
hello 77
Did he say keep the focus on boys.
1553. Drakoen
Quoting bappit:

The MJO is a wave moving through the atmosphere. I guess it has to start somewhere or something triggers it.


Yes it is an eastward propagating wave. Atmospheric circulations determine where the upward or downward phase is present. The upward motion will favor 200mb divergence aloft, while the downward motion will favor upper level convergence.
16 days, yikes for PR and DR if that were to verify



Quoting mfaria101:
Death Spiral of the oceans....
This doesn't look good,
Link


The strongest La Nina since never is coming on? Perfect time to make this... <_<
1557. Drakoen
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes it is an eastward propagating wave. Atmospheric circulations determine where the upward or downward phase is present. The upward motion will favor 200mb divergence aloft, while the downward motion will favor upper level convergence.


Sea-surface temperatures also help dictate where the MJO will be most concentrated.
Think there going to be 4-5 storms this August.. With 2-3 major hurricanes. and one of them striking the US as a major or a Cat 2
Quoting mfaria101:
Death Spiral of the oceans....
This doesn't look good,
Link


Pretty much what Dr. Masters wrote in the current blog topic:

"A study published this week in the Journal Nature documents that microscopic marine phytoplankton, which form the basis of the marine food chain, have declined by 40% globally since 1950...I plan to discuss this paper next week."
rumblin bumblin stumblin strugglin invests again. what's new this season....
I believe we could see several named storms this month IMO.
Quoting superweatherman:
Think there going to be 4-5 storms this August.. With 2-3 major hurricanes. and one of them striking the US as a major or a Cat 2

That is a definite possibility!!!
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did he say keep the focus on boys.



no, I said keep the focus on weather, boys. Haven't you been to school? its called correct usage of comma placement and grammar structure.
Quoting extreme236:
I believe we could see several named storms this month IMO.

I'll believe it when I see it. :P
1565. Drakoen
Also have to keep in mind that the MJO is variable, hence, why we can see a little upward motion with our AOI SW of the CV islands.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Did he say keep the focus on boys.


lmao I just saw this... too funny
Oh, thanks my bad. It wasn't even funny I guess.
Quoting superweatherman:
Think there going to be 4-5 storms this August.. With 2-3 major hurricanes. and one of them striking the US as a major or a Cat 2


I think you're way too low on total storms; I go with seven or eight for the month, with four or five of them hurricanes, including a pair of majors.
The thing about 2005's activity was that it was fairly evenly spread throughout the months of the hurricane season. August and September each had only 5 named storms in 2005.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Oh, thanks my bad. It wasn't even funny I guess.


rofl...back to weather...boys........
1571. bwt1982
Tropics are dead as usual! With 2010 being a bust year for the tropics and it being a very dry wet season here in Florida, starting to wonder whats going on with mother nature. LOL
Quoting Neapolitan:


I think you're way too low on total storms; I go with seven or eight for the month, with four or five of them hurricanes, including a pair of majors.


I think that you're mistaken...
Ya know what they say...77's alot better than that other number!
October was the most active month of the 2005 hurricane season in terms of number of named storms. 7 formed during the month.
I stick by my prediction of 18-21 named storms. I can see various paths to getting this number.

6 in August, 6 in September, 3 in October, and just 1 in November or post-season would reach 18.
1578. Drakoen
Quoting extreme236:
October was the most active month of the 2005 hurricane season in terms of number of named storms. 7 formed during the month.


Which is exactly why we can't rule out this season. We've already had two named storms and it looks like the months ahead will be very active. I may lower my season totals come August but it won't be by much.
I might be channeling my inner reedzone by going out on such a limb, but if the GFS verifies and we see 4 named storms in the first half of August, the second half in theory would be just as active or more active as it approaches the peak.
1581. Drakoen
1969. Notice the distinct (and somewhat familiar) lack of activity until the second week of August...then The Unleashing.

BOOM goes the dynamite...

Image source: Wikipedia - 1969 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Now, I'm not saying we're in for the same; I'm just highlighting one particular possibility.
Quoting extreme236:
The thing about 2005's activity was that it was fairly evenly spread throughout the months of the hurricane season. August and September each had only 5 named storms in 2005.


Exactly. 2005 didn't have super-bursts, but it did have endurance. 2005 started early, ended late, and never stopped in between. The record for most in a month is 8, which actually goes to September of.....2002! XP
1584. Zegama
Thanks for all the good scientific speculation everyone. I'll be back tonight to catch up. Have a good afternoon.
Quoting Snowlover123:


I think that you're mistaken...


Meteorology and climatology back up my opinion; what do you have? ;-)
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Exactly. 2005 didn't have super-bursts, but it did have endurance. 2005 started early, ended late, and never stopped in between. The record for most in a month is 8, which actually goes to September of.....2002! XP


That number was actually tied in 2007, but those storms were rather weak.
its ex invest 90L
1589. bwt1982
Quoting Neapolitan:


I think you're way too low on total storms; I go with seven or eight for the month, with four or five of them hurricanes, including a pair of majors.

LOL! your not talking about the Atlantic basin are you? 8 in August with the season being as dead as it is? LOL! enough wishcasting!
Quoting extreme236:
I stick by my prediction of 18-21 named storms. I can see various paths to getting this number.

6 in August, 6 in September, 3 in October, and just 1 in November or post-season would reach 18.

I'm also sticking by my prediction of 18-11-6 from back in May.
Quoting bwt1982:


LOL! your not talking about the Atlantic basin are you? 8 in August with the season being as dead as it is? LOL! enough wishcasting!


Seasons are usually always dead until this month, I don't know where you get your history from. Clearly things are going to become very active.
Quoting Hurricanes101:
16 days, yikes for PR and DR if that were to verify





That would be a utter disaster.
Quoting Drakoen:


The convection needs to consoladate. Right now, it's just disorganized convection, but it's convection nonetheless.
People can call me a wishcaster for having such a high number, but they can't give me any solid evidence as to why my number is unreasonable. All they can say is how it has been "dead" so far...which means nothing in terms of the rest of the activity for the season.
Quoting bwt1982:
LOL! your not talking about the Atlantic basin are you? 8 in August with the season being as dead as it is? LOL! enough wishcasting!


Stiock around, my child; you might just learn something.
Quoting extreme236:


That number was actually tied in 2007, but those storms were rather weak.

Except for Isadore and Lili, September 2002 was the same way. Here's the seasonal activity from 2007. I'd post 2002's as well, but I can't seem to find it anywhere.

1598. DDR
Quoting SLU:


Is it raining in Port of Spain?

I'll be coming to take up residence in Trinidad from late August.

Hi slu
Are you serious?
you might want tocome here to escape the cape verde season.I'm not sure im 13 kilometres east of Port-of-Spain.
i can see the blog header
on dec 1st 2010
"WORLDWIDE HURRICANES KILLED OFF BY G.W."
has a hurricane ever formed from 2 invests merging together?
Quoting Drakoen:


Which is exactly why we can't rule out this season. We've already had two named storms and it looks like the months ahead will be very active. I may lower my season totals come August but it won't be by much.


Exactly. I don't understand the thinking behind people who believe otherwise.
Quoting extreme236:
People can call me a wishcaster for having such a high number, but they can't give me any solid evidence as to why my number is unreasonable. All they can say is how it has been "dead" so far...which means nothing in terms of the rest of the activity for the season.
That's what I say!
Quoting extreme236:
I stick by my prediction of 18-21 named storms. I can see various paths to getting this number.

6 in August, 6 in September, 3 in October, and just 1 in November or post-season would reach 18.

I agree completely it only takes a few days to get going not months or weeks last August there was 4 named storms in two weeks at the end of August.
1604. Drakoen
The way it is looking on the models, I would be surprised if we do not get a tropical cyclone from ex-90L.
1606. bwt1982
Quoting Neapolitan:


Stiock around, my child; you might just learn something.


Oh I will stick around, but not sure what I will learn from predictions like that! LOL!
Doesn't look half-bad...
Quoting surfswells100:
has a hurricane ever formed from 2 invests merging together?


Yes, Florence in 2006.
1609. DDR
Quoting DDR:

Hi slu
Are you serious?
you might want tocome here to escape the cape verde season.I'm not sure im 13 kilometres east of Port-of-Spain.
Quoting sporteguy03:

I agree completely it only takes a few days to get going not months or weeks last August there was 4 named storms in two weeks at the end of August.


Exactly. Things can get active very quickly, and once they do, I doubt we'll have much of a break.
1613. Ossqss
Interesting read :)

Huge Hurricane Study Gears Up
Jul 30, 2010 10:26 AM ET


"A massive research project this summer may help reveal some of the storms' best-kept secrets. Researchers sponsored by three government agencies — NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF), will swarm the skies of the tropical Atlantic Ocean with specially outfitted planes in an effort to better understand how — and why — tropical cyclones form in the first place."
Quoting bwt1982:


LOL! your not talking about the Atlantic basin are you? 8 in August with the season being as dead as it is? LOL! enough wishcasting!


Can you tell me why you think the season will continue to be inactive?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can see the blog header
on dec 1st 2010
"WORLDWIDE HURRICANES KILLED OFF BY G.W.

At the moment, we're being affected by the SAL layer, too many TUTT Lows in the wrong places, not necessarily high wind shear, just the typical June & July inhibiting factors for development we see almost every ATL Hurricane Season.

Then the typical Aug/Sept pattern develops, I pray and hope things do NOT got insane, however, most likely, they will!!
1616. OneDrop
Quoting Jedkins01:
Hey to all the nerds, ho77lywood is probably a dude pretending to be a girl lol, even if shes not, this a weather blog not an online dating service, keep the focus on weather, boys, shall we? lolol
Wow, why so conflictive? And why attack someone with an insensitive comment like that? Weather and fishing go hand in hand!! BOYS? WOW!
ex-90L reminds me a lot of Hurricane Florence in 2006. Hopefully if it does develop it takes a similar path.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can see the blog header
on dec 1st 2010
"WORLDWIDE HURRICANES KILLED OFF BY G.W.


Or "Aerosoles choke Atlantic"
Quoting Bordonaro:

Then the typical Aug/Sept pattern develops, I pray and hope things do NOT got insane, however, most likely, they will!!


I want them 2 get active. This is boring. The "August/September pattern" that you mentioned, may last into October!
1620. xcool
by Crown Weather, the writer mentioned 12/13 storms between Aug. and Oct.
Quoting Bordonaro:

At the moment, we're being affected by the SAL layer, too many TUTT Lows in the wrong places, not necessarily high wind shear, just the typical June & July inhibiting factors for development we see almost every ATL Hurricane Season.

Then the typical Aug/Sept pattern develops, I pray and hope things do NOT got insane, however, most likely, they will!!


Incorrect. SAL's not bad, and TUTT has pretty much lifted off the N and died off.
1622. bwt1982
Quoting extreme236:


Seasons are usually always dead until this month, I don't know where you get your history from. Clearly things are going to become very active.


So you are allowed to over hype a season but I cant have my opionon? LOL
1623. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can see the blog header
on dec 1st 2010
"WORLDWIDE HURRICANES KILLED OFF BY G.W.


Speaking of GW....my hometown....accurate PWS....from what I know of it....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
99.0 °F

Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 1.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 4900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft
1624. BDAwx
idk if this has been posted or not but.



GFS shows a tropical low/storm in the gulf of mexico Hurricane going up the east coast a hurricane in the Atlantic a strong tropical wave emerging off of africa.:O.

pretty scary stuff - this is 12th August.
Quoting mfaria101:

That was pretty offensive, the fact that many young people, male or female, attractive or not, choose to get involved in serious discussions like SOME that take place on this blog, gives me some hope for the future. Hell my daughter looks to be about hollywoods age, I can only hope she is as interested and apparently intelligent in her interests as hollywood appears to be.
And seriously, calling her a dude is really uncalled for, I dont think destinjeff is a cartoon....


Thanks, I am almost 29 and all I was doing was answering a question... geez some people are so uptight in this blog!
Quoting extreme236:
People can call me a wishcaster for having such a high number, but they can't give me any solid evidence as to why my number is unreasonable. All they can say is how it has been "dead" so far...which means nothing in terms of the rest of the activity for the season.


Because they can't, and when they know all the evidence has contradicted there so called evidence they resort to name calling. There is no reason we shouldn't see at least 2007 style activity.
Quoting extreme236:
I stick by my prediction of 18-21 named storms. I can see various paths to getting this number.

6 in August, 6 in September, 3 in October, and just 1 in November or post-season would reach 18.


sounds reasonable. i averaged the totals of all the forecasts that dr. m posted about a month ago and it came out to 17, so i'm going with 17. that's my simple analysis - the average ;)
Quoting ho77yw00d:


Thanks, I am almost 29 and all I was doing was answering a question... geez some people are so uptight in this blog!


Its JFV paranoia. I think your who you say you are and I have no reason to contradict that fact.
Quoting IKE:


Speaking of GW....my hometown....accurate PWS....from what I know of it....

WZEP AM 1460 DeFuniak Springs, FL, DeFuniak Springs, Florida (PWS)
Updated: 2 sec ago
Partly Cloudy
99.0 °F

Partly Cloudy
Humidity: 50%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 1.0 mph Variable
Wind Gust: 6.0 mph
Pressure: 29.80 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 115 °F
Visibility: 9.0 miles
UV: 12 out of 16
Pollen: 4.00 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 4900 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 174 ft



Stay inside no time to mow the lawn today in Defuniak.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect. SAL's not bad, and TUTT has pretty much lifted off the N and died off.

Correct, however the current downward MJO is keeping TC development at bay, for the moment.

How long will this last?? O I am afraid that the "TC development is fixing to start hitting the fan"!!
Quoting BDAwx:
idk if this has been posted or not but.



GFS shows a tropical low/storm in the gulf of mexico Hurricane going up the east coast a hurricane in the Atlantic a strong tropical wave emerging off of africa.:O.

pretty scary stuff - this is 12th August.


Parade of storms.
Quoting mfaria101:

That was pretty offensive, the fact that many young people, male or female, attractive or not, choose to get involved in serious discussions like SOME that take place on this blog, gives me some hope for the future. Hell my daughter looks to be about hollywoods age, I can only hope she is as interested and apparently intelligent in her interests as hollywood appears to be.
And seriously, calling her a dude is really uncalled for, I dont think destinjeff is a cartoon....



Well boy, here's the deal, dudes have made fake profiles as girls on here before, so I was just calling out the possibility! lol

sheesh, get off my back a little lol.

I also just think its funny that guys on a weather blog flirt with girls they will never meet! It is quite the crackup you gotta admit!
Quoting OneDrop:
Wow, why so conflictive? And why attack someone with an insensitive comment like that? Weather and fishing go hand in hand!! BOYS? WOW!



lol nothing better to do I guess.... did you read the post about where I caught the red?
1635. bwt1982
Quoting sporteguy03:


Can you tell me why you think the season will continue to be inactive?

Nope, I never said inactive but I just dont think that we will see 8 named storms in Aug and cant see how people still think we will see more than 20 storms for 2010. But that is the nature of this blog to over hype things. Like last week with Bonnie and the predictions people had for her...LMAO
Quoting bwt1982:


So you are allowed to over hype a season but I cant have my opionon? LOL


Well obviously you're inserting your opinion by saying I am overhyping the season. You can have your opinion but please tell me why I am overhyping the season. Some evidence would be great.
Quoting Bordonaro:

Correct, however the current downward MJO is keeping TC development at bay, for the moment.

How long will this last?? O I am afraid that the "TC development is fixing to start hitting the fan"!!


Downward MJO's going away, the MDR is 2-4 mb below average for this time of year, plus with very high SST's the basin looks unaffected by downward MJO.



MJO so far has been following the UKMET's MJO prediction and takes it right back to octant 1 and 2 where the heat is favored.

So the gfs is verifying what I have been saying for the past 3 days 90l will come towards florida then the one after it follows it then we could have more in the gulf after or before. This is showing the upward mjo phase and the neg nao so that ridge will keep everything towards florida and the gulf this year. Correct if I'm wrong storm or mh09 but from what I learned from storm I could be correct oh and hollywood u r fine in here with us weather boys lol ;)
1639. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:



Stay inside no time to mow the lawn today in Defuniak.


I always do it early...7:30-8am. This is just brutal.

Marianna...which is 50 miles east of me...already at 100 at the airport....all-time record highs may be achieved today...

Marianna, Florida (Airport)
Updated: 27 min 15 sec ago
Clear
100 °F
Clear
Humidity: 39%
Dew Point: 71 °F
Wind: 6 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.83 in (Steady)
Heat Index: 109 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 13 out of 16
Pollen: 3.60 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 108 ft
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Except for Isadore and Lili, September 2002 was the same way. Here's the seasonal activity from 2007. I'd post 2002's as well, but I can't seem to find it anywhere.
2002
Storm: Dates: Max Winds: Min Pressure: Deaths: U.S. Landfall Category: Damage (millions US $):
Tropical Storm Arthur 07/14-07/19 60 992 0 No US Landfall 0
Tropical Storm Bertha 08/04-08/09 40 1008 0 TS 0
Tropical Storm Cristobal 08/05-08/08 50 999 0 No US Landfall 0
Tropical Storm Dolly 08/29-09/04 60 997 0 No US Landfall 0
Tropical Storm Edouard 09/01-09/06 65 1002 0 TS 0
Tropical Storm Fay 09/05-09/11 60 998 0 TS 5
Hurricane Gustav 09/08-09/15 100 960 0 TS 0.1
Tropical Storm Hanna 09/12-09/15 60 1001 3 TS 20
Hurricane Isidore 09/14-09/27 125 934 4 TS 330
Tropical Storm Josephine 09/17-09/19 60 1004 0 No US Landfall 0
Hurricane Kyle 09/20-10/12 85 980 4 TS 5
Hurricane Lili 09/21-10/04 145 940 12 1 860

Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video
Hey bud!
Quoting sporteguy03:


Can you tell me why you think the season will continue to be inactive?


to be honest 03 i had high expectations for this season
along with a lot of others
but something is not right
can not put my finger on it
but something is just not allowing systems to organize normally
every system struggle so far
except alex when making landfall
i am waitin to see if a more normal pattern
sets up for august
to confirm if season is to be
what has been expected
iam focusing on
the 15th to 20th
time frame in august
to see if i can see
what iam looking for
Nogaps strong Hurricane Mid Islands

Link
i only hope your still as confused as me
1645. Drakoen
It's very interesting how the GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree of the 500mb longwave pattern in the long range. The GFS shows a deeper and less progressive trough while the ECMWF shows a fast flat trough that is quickly taken over by a trough.
I'd say look out for the lightening latter Ike.
Quoting extreme236:
I might be channeling my inner reedzone by going out on such a limb, but if the GFS verifies and we see 4 named storms in the first half of August, the second half in theory would be just as active or more active as it approaches the peak.


Just as long as you don't get pissy and defensive every time someone questions you, I'm fine with it.
1649. IKE
Quoting bwt1982:


So you are allowed to over hype a season but I cant have my opionon? LOL


It's almost always been that way on here. I've seen a couple report someone for downplaying the season.
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video

Hello :)
Well bwt1982 I'm not going to report you for "downcasting"...I was just curious as to the reasoning behind not seeing the levels of activity I describe, besides "its been "dead" so far"
1652. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
It's very interesting how the GFS and ECMWF continue to disagree of the 500mb longwave pattern in the long range. The GFS shows a deeper and less progressive trough while the ECMWF shows a fast flat trough that is quickly taken over by a trough.


Indeed....another model war. The ECMWF looks to me to make more sense but we'll see how it plays out. I have a feeling that the pattern may be somewhat fragile in the SW Atlantic in 10 days.
Nevermind, I understand now.
Quoting ho77yw00d:


who was flirting? we were talking about fish... I am the one who started the fish conversation so... you tell me what guy was flirting and if you are so concerned with talking tropics then talk tropics I havent seen a post you wrote to do with anything weather related thus far!
i think maybe hes upset cause he really wants to flirt with you
people are touchy and jealous in here today I'm out! 90l won't do anything today.
I predict 5-8 named storms in August, consisting of 3-5 hurricanes, and 1-3 Majors.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


to be honest 03 i had high expectations for this season
along with a lot of others
but something is not right
can not put my finger on it
but something is just not allowing systems to organize normally
every system struggle so far
except alex when making landfall
i am waitin to see if a more normal pattern
sets up for august
to confirm if season is to be
what has been expected
iam focusing on
the 15th to 20th
time frame in august
to see if i can see
what iam looking for


Its all good Keep, I don't mind it if people post different viewpoints, just wondering what some think will keep the season from being active. I just know better living in Florida to not let my guard down in August, September, and October. It would be nice to get a front though.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Oh well I am off for awhile this blog is one or two post away from the dreaded you know what, sorry I can't mention it, you all would be wise not to even bring it up. Anybody seen Al Gore lately. Have a nice weekend get some sun. Adios Amigos.
Adios Amigo, No we haven't heard much about that distinguish gentlemen, other than all the charges against him about sexual misconduct failed. Otherwise I understand that he will continue helping with many of us on our struggles for keeping a greener and healthier emvironment on our planet.
Quoting IKE:


It's almost always been that way on here. I've seen a couple report someone for downplaying the season.


I don't it report either, it does not bother me that bloggers have different views, I would think they would have an interest in the tropics or weather still otherwise why blog here.
1660. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


I don't it report either, it does not bother me that bloggers have different views, I would think they would have an interest in the tropics or weather still otherwise why blog here.


Whatever happens, happens. I'm just glad my AC is working... 97.3 °F
Partly Cloudy
Quoting bwt1982:


Bonnie could have been a whole lot worse had that ULL not been with it the whole time.
1662. bwt1982
Quoting extreme236:
Well bwt1982 I'm not going to report you for "downcasting"...I was just curious as to the reasoning behind not seeing the levels of activity I describe, besides "its been "dead" so far"


Fair enough and I will not report you for wishcasting or over hyping the season either!
03 i would never suggest anyone let there guard down i know all to well things can turn around in a blink of an eye
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video


Thanks, good stuff!
Quoting bwt1982:


Fair enough and I will not report you for wishcasting or over hyping the season either!


Well, I'm seriously not wishcasting. It is incredibly plausible, it's pretty obvious there is a distinct chance...and I've yet to see a reason why there isn't.
1666. xcool
by Crown Weather, the writer mentioned 12/13 storms between Aug. and Oct.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i think maybe hes upset cause he really wants to flirt with you


lol oh well... maybe he was hoping I was a dude who knows
Good Afternoon.....I don't about the possibility of a very active early half to August, given the 100 year climatology pattern for late-Aug through September, but we may have the possibility of a few "rougue" storms in the the early half which could become very strong hurricanes because of all the heat out there. But the "clusters" of storms, which usually form from CV waves, will probably not start in earnest until September....Just my opinion.
Quoting bwt1982:


Fair enough and I will not report you for wishcasting or over hyping the season either!


I wouldn't call his prediction a wishcast or over hype...
Holy hell! It's 99 degrees with a heat index of 120. I'm going to get slapped hard by the power company this month. Yeesh.
Quoting sporteguy03:


I don't it report either, it does not bother me that bloggers have different views, I would think they would have an interest in the tropics or weather still otherwise why blog here.


I don't report either for downcasting.. shocking I know. I only report JFV and stormtop, they have thousands of alts.
Is there any vorticity left in ex-90l?
0z ECMWF 192Hr


12z GFS 102Hrs


bwt, could you explain your reasoning on why extreme's prediction is 'wishcasting'?
1675. hydrus
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I predict 5-8 named storms in August, consisting of 3-5 hurricanes, and 1-3 Majors.
If you prediction comes to fruition, it is my prediction that the U.S. will take a hit.
Quoting IKE:


It's almost always been that way on here. I've seen a couple report someone for downplaying the season.


Yup.
1677. Patrap
Lordy Miss Gordy.

Get out and away from here.

Some have Tropical-itis Dysfunctional Syndrome.

Sheesh,..trouble will come soon nuff.

Enjoy a Fresca maybe.
1678. NASA101
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hello :)


Great video! What's your background Levi? I have Doctorate in Astrophysics but have real interests in tropical weather!
Holy smokes! It looks like 90L is about to form into a tropical depression already.
The pouch-analysis is on break or the info will be delayed today and tomorrow, however they did post this:

Special note: 17Z 31 July: Possible new pouch invest PGI23L ~51W
Quoting hydrus:
If you prediction comes to fruition, it is my prediction that the U.S. will take a hit.


Or many...
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy smokes! It looks like 90L is about to form into a tropical depression already.


Probably not as 90L is still attached to the ITCZ.
1683. Ossqss
Hey Keeper, how is that weather station you put up doing? I am back in the market. Mine is on its last leg after 12 years (pressure has been at 1001 mb for a couple years now). Any recommendations would be appreciated :)
Quoting cirrocumulus:
Holy smokes! It looks like 90L is about to form into a tropical depression already.


Not really. Vorticity is extremely elongated, and convection is disorganized, although it does have a vigorous circulation, and a plethora of convection, it's associated with the ICTZ, and systems that come from the ICTZ usually develop slowly.
This season is over. The Saharan dust has clearly negatively interacted with a strong bilateral onus that has predebentured the GVS (Greenland Vertical Syndrome). Ira Geer spoke to this at Brockport University last year.

Lots of tropical meteorologists will be joining the ranks f the unemployed momentarily. See you all next year!!!
1686. NASA101
Quoting Levi32:
Good morning all.

Blog update.

Tropical Tidbit for Saturday, July 31st, with Video


Great video! What's your background Levi..just curious?
I have Doctorate in Astrophysics but have a real interest in tropical weather! :)
1687. Patrap
There is No 90L..its been de-activated.


Whatever and wherever something forms next in the Basin,,it will be 91L
Sup hollywood? Oh man now I'm flirting oh geez! Haha! Looks like aug will explode. Just in time when I get back from working the nascar race up in ny next week then I come back on that mon geez.
1689. bappit
More cool stuff.

The notion of bottom-up development (Halverson et al., 2007) is advanced as a counterpart to the more familiar “topdown” scenario advocated by Bister and Emanuel (1997) and Ritchie and Holland (1997), respectively; see also Ritchie et al. (2003). (This perspective was in vogue when M06 was written. The two scenarios are not mutually exclusive, as emphasized by Halverson et al.; see Glossary.) The top-down pathway begins with a recognition of the “top-heavy” nature of moist convective heating profiles in the presence of combined convective and stratiform precipitation processes. A top-heavy heating profile in a rotating environment necessarily leads to the conclusion that cyclonic vorticity is first concentrated in the middle troposphere by the induced vertical profile of convergence and must therefore find a way subsequently to burrow downward into the lower troposphere in order to provide the surface development needed for warmcore TC genesis. This pathway is inefficient (Tory and Montgomery, 2006) and invites a more direct route to genesis if one could be found, particularly in sectors where development is marginal to begin with. Observational findings of the top-down school were biased to the western Pacific warm pool, but in light of forecaster’s experience we are inclined to regard this pathway as largely irrelevant to the Atlantic and eastern Pacific sectors outside the ITCZ12. The genesis of depressions in this region of the world is almost always associated with a surface low along the wave (see Reasor et al., 2005, for a case study); examples of mid-level cyclonic vortices in developing tropical systems, without a corresponding cyclonic signature near the surface, are evidently rare.
Quoting Levi32:


Indeed....another model war. The ECMWF looks to me to make more sense but we'll see how it plays out. I have a feeling that the pattern may be somewhat fragile in the SW Atlantic in 10 days.


Levi, just curious, what program do you use to put your graphs on Youtube?
Quoting ho77yw00d:


Thanks, I am almost 29 and all I was doing was answering a question... geez some people are so uptight in this blog!

29? good genes I guess..Lol
My daughters 22 so I guess you can take that as a compliment
30% on 90L.
1693. Levi32
Quoting NASA101:


Great video! What's your background Levi..just curious?
I have Doctorate in Astrophysics but have a real interest in tropical weather! :)


Thank you :)

I am just a high school graduate who wants to get into Meteorology. I have no colors to display yet.
AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1695. Levi32
Quoting Snowlover123:


Levi, just curious, what program do you use to put your graphs on Youtube?


I screen cast using screencast-o-matic
Quoting CybrTeddy:
AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Can u post an img?
ORANGE ALERT
Quoting Levi32:


I screen cast using screencast-o-matic


Thank you. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i can see the blog header
on dec 1st 2010
"WORLDWIDE HURRICANES KILLED OFF BY G.W."


Ugh, don't go there, lol
1700. xcool
omg blog about go crazy
Another item of note for the upcoming season is the general position of the A-B high. It is close to "settling" in for the peak months and right now it seems to favor a bee-line from Africa to the Greater Antilles. That "higher" trajectory so to speak is also consistent with Cold Phase Enso conditions which increase the threat to the US East coast by about 16%. Everyone from the Greater Antilles to the Gulf/Florida and East Coast will at risk this year. It's just a matter of the steering currents and general position of the high/trof as each individual storm approaches over the next two months..........It's going to be a long and potentially destructive season this year but where the landfalls might occur will not be known until it actually unfolds.
Thats a mean looking train starting.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting ho77yw00d:


lol oh well... maybe he was hoping I was a dude who knows


Zing!...


Pat, ima take your advice on that fresca.
ORANGE ALERT!



A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
The ITCZ doesn't matter to 90L. It's well north now.
1708. A4Guy
code orange!
OR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS LESS LIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
1710. NASA101
Quoting Levi32:


Thank you :)

I am just a high school graduate who wants to get into Meteorology. I have no colors to display yet.


Only a high school graduate...hard to believe!? Well, I am learning some from your comments and videos! Keep it up!
Sounds like NHC just upgraded that area around 35W - 8N to 30%
Atlantic Floater 1
90L sill up on nhc.
They should reclassify 90L now that it's 'upgraded'.
But remember to pace ourselves.....There will be lots of code oranges in September........ :)
Why did they deactivate 90L?

Are they about to re-classify it as 91L?
Quoting extreme236:
The pouch-analysis is on break or the info will be delayed today and tomorrow, however they did post this:

Special note: 17Z 31 July: Possible new pouch invest PGI23L ~51W
Anti-cyclone has developed there IMO.
CybrTeddy: Did I call it or what? I beat NOAA by about ten minutes!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I like seeing fish storms, out to sea and not hurting nobody. Storms like Bill, Fred, ect. That way we can observe a Hurricane's beauty on satellite without having to worry about who's under it.

Reality is most of the time someone is under it.
Most make some kind of landfall. Even ones that go out to sea can catch boats out or at least disrupt them.
Quoting cirrocumulus:
The ITCZ doesn't matter to 90L. It's well north now.


90L is gone. The system would now be "91L" as 90L got absorbed by another, more potent wave.

It is also very far south, and if it were to go due west, hypothetically, it would impact with land.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


to be honest 03 i had high expectations for this season
along with a lot of others
but something is not right
can not put my finger on it
but something is just not allowing systems to organize normally
every system struggle so far
except alex when making landfall
i am waitin to see if a more normal pattern
sets up for august
to confirm if season is to be
what has been expected
iam focusing on
the 15th to 20th
time frame in august
to see if i can see
what iam looking for


Such poetry! Here's mine:

I also had high expectations,
Then watched as the season progressed.
I've viewed everybody's frustrations--
Especially the tropic-obsessed.

We've studied each blob in the ocean;
We've analyzed models like geeks;
We've worried at each little motion...
Complaining "No cyclone!" for weeks.

But then I remember: it's early!
To downcast, it's really too soon:
One mustn't get sullen and surly;
There've never been seven by June.

So listen: the atmosphere's humming;
The season is starting. Just wait.
I promise the storms are a-comin'
(Just pray they don't come to your state.)

;-)
1720. Levi32
Strange now they deactivated the invest and yet raised the chances of development.
Quoting mfaria101:

29? good genes I guess..Lol
My daughters 22 so I guess you can take that as a compliment


thanks :)
1722. NASA101
Quoting Levi32:
Strange now they deactivated the invest and yet raised the chances of development.


..Well I assume they'll designate this with Invest 91L...
90L is a lot stronger today. 91L is helping the development instead of the SAL.
Maybe we'll get two systems out of this area. One from ex-90L, another from the wave behind it.
TAFB Experimental Gridded Marine Forecast

Wind 8AM EDT Aug 6





Pressure


I see that our feature in the Atlantic has been upgraded to orange or a 30% chance. Satellite images suggest that this area is accompanied by an area of broad low pressure. Convection associated with it has also organized throughout the day. I would be surprised if this feature doesn't get designated 91L later today.
1727. Becca36
New Blog!!
NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting itrackstorms:
ORANGE ALERT!



A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Will 90L be re-activated? Or will they number it as 91L?
There is a huge surge of mositure associated with this wave which NHC probably factored in in going up to 30%.......As long as the dust travels in tandem with the wave, and it appears to out in front of it, dry air might not be an impediment in the short-term.
901L is farther north. The northeast component of the convection is where there is more of the spin referred by Masters.
1732. Patrap
Hey..expert tropical observers..


NEW Blog Posted..!

LOL

Maybe try the directory instead of digging a trench in ones f-5 key
1733. xcool
new blog
NEW BLOG!
Quoting donna1960ruled:
This season is over. The Saharan dust has clearly negatively interacted with a strong bilateral onus that has predebentured the GVS (Greenland Vertical Syndrome). Ira Geer spoke to this at Brockport University last year.

Lots of tropical meteorologists will be joining the ranks f the unemployed momentarily. See you all next year!!!


People like this make me laugh. POOF.


1.. A TROPICAL WAVE JUST WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS BEGINNING TO
INTERACT WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500
MILES TO ITS WEST. ALTHOUGH THIS ENTIRE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
REMAINS DISORGANIZED...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME
SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD...AND
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting FloridaHeat:
testing testingQuoting StormW:
The most likely place we may see this develop, is going to be closer to 35-40W.

Out until later this evening.
thanks storm
1738. bappit
I've reached page 5597 of "Tropical Cyclogenesis in Tropical Waves". (It starts on page 5587 of volume 9, 2009, of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.)

They start talking about shear and start sounding like (global warming, hack, coff) skeptics at an Wunderground Forecasters' convention. They note that:

It is widely appreciated, especially by forecasters, that strong vertical shear is inimical to genesis. This fact is thought to account for the reduction of Atlantic hurricanes in warm ENSO events, as the eastern Pacific “warm pool” forces upper-level westerlies over the Caribbean (Gray, 1984a, b; Goldenberg and Shapiro, 1996). Although reasons suggest themselves, none are entirely convincing.

Later on:

It is well-known that vertical shear can be detrimental to hurricane intensification; the strongest and most circularly symmetric storms have little environmental shear or shear tendency. It is precarious, however, to take whatever mechanisms are responsible for the effects of shear on hurricane-strength vortices and assign them to the pre-depression stage.

Also:

Forecasters’ experience notwithstanding, there is no reason to think that genesis is optimized in exactly zero vertical shear. If it were, the fact that easterly-wave amplitudes maximize near the altitude of AEJ maximum (~600 hPa) would be convenient to the marsupial paradigm because wave + mean vertical shear is zero at this altitude, by definition. We suspect that the role of vertical shear in the marsupial paradigm [and they would suggest in reality as well] is more subtle and may (in some cases) facilitate refraction of the waves, without affecting adversely their embedded deep convection.
1739. bappit
Cool stuff. On page 5608:

Meteorological charts displaying Earth-relative streamlines are a standard tool in the forecasting industry, but generally provide a misleading picture of actual flow kinematics, or Lagrangian displacement of air, in propagating tropical waves. These maps typically display an upright omega pattern in the lower troposphere straddling the wave’s trough axis. In fact the omega pattern is often upside-down in the translating frame, with separatrix orientation to the north. In other cases, the separatrix is oriented to the east or west (or both). To the extent that horizontal advection explains the topology of streamlines, and therefore indicates where air in the closed gyre has detached from, it is firmly established in our 55 cases that air at 600 hPa is not derived from or being exchanged (by resolvable motions) with distant points to the south. For the most part, this is also true at 850 hPa. Rather, it is coming from (or previously associated with) air to the east, north or west of the gyre center. This result is probably the most important take-home message for operational purposes and weather briefings.


WOW GUYS ORANGE ALERT 30% WOW WOW WOW Sorry about this I just came back from town
1741. bappit
I think we are alone wunder kid.