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Little change to 90L; flow of oil southwards towards Loop Current shuts off

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:57 PM GMT on May 22, 2010

An extratropical low pressure system a few hundred miles northeast of the Bahamas (90L), has changed little over the past day. (For those of you who were wondering, a discussion of what an "Invest" is can be found in the Tropical Cyclone FAQ). This low has the potential to develop into the season's first depression or subtropical storm, and could be a threat to the Southeast U.S. coast by Tuesday or Wednesday. The SHIPS model predicts that shear will be in the high 30 - 40 knot range through Tuesday, though. The high shear combined with the large amount of dry air to 90L's west seen on water vapor satellite loops will greatly hamper transition of this system to a subtropical storm. This system is expected to move slowly north and then northwestward towards the Southeast U.S. coast over the next three days, and could bring 20 - 30 mph winds and heavy rain to the coast of North Carolina by Tuesday night. Most of the models indicate that Wednesday will be when 90L gets closest to the coast, with a position just off the North or South Carolina coast. All of the major models currently indicate that 90L will not make landfall, but will move slowly northeastward out to sea late next week as a trough of low pressure moving across the Eastern U.S. picks up the storm. While the storm will initially form in a region of high wind shear and be entirely extratropical, it will move into a region of lower wind shear in a gap between the polar jet stream to the north and the subtropical jet stream to its south by Wednesday. At that time, the low will be positioned near the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and will have the opportunity to develop a shallow warm core and transition to a subtropical storm. The counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will probably lead to offshore winds over the oil spill region Tuesday through Wednesday, keeping oil away from the coasts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but pushing oil southwards towards the Loop Current. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more detailed discussions of the potential development of 90L.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of 90L this afternoon.

Heavy rainfall threat for Haiti diminishes
Moisture is expected to increase across most of the Caribbean next week, leading to seasonally heavy rains across much of the region. A concentrated tropical disturbance capable of bringing dangerous flooding rains to Haiti is no longer being indicated, but the normal heavy rains that we can expect this time of year will likely begin affecting the island over the next several weeks.

Flow of oil southward towards the Loop Current shuts off
Light southeast to east winds are expected to blow over the northern Gulf of Mexico today through Monday, resulting in potential oiling of Louisiana shorelines from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward 150 miles, according to the latest trajectory forecasts from NOAA. These winds shut off the flow of oil southwards towards the Loop Current, as seen in the latest SAR satellite imagery (Figure 2). However, winds will shift to offshore out of the north or northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, due to counter-clockwise flow of air around the approaching 90L storm. This wind direction change should give some relief to the hard-hit Louisiana coast. If 90L becomes strong and lingers off the Southeast U.S. coast for several days, a significant amount of oil could get pumped into the Loop Current late next week.


Figure 2. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image of the oil spill taken at 8:53am EDT May 22, 2010, by the Canadian Radarsat-1 satellite, operated by MDA GeospatialServices of Richmond, Canada. The plume of oil being drawn south towards the Loop Current has been cut off. Image credit: Center for Southeastern Tropical Advanced Remote Sensing, University of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science. SAR images have a resolution of 8 - 50 meters, and can be taken through clouds and precipitation.

Oil threat to the Keys uncertain
Satellite imagery from today's pass of NASA's Terra satellite and the European Envisat satellite were inconclusive as to the presence of oil in the Loop Current. It is likely that the oil has dispersed significantly over the 500-mile course it has taken from the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. I expect some oil is close to completing the full loop of the Loop Current and is now headed east towards the Keys, as depicted in the "Uncertainty" area in the latest NOAA 72-hour offshore trajectory forecast. If this estimate is correct, the Keys could see oil as early as Wednesday. However, this is not a sure thing. As I discussed in my post Wednesday, the Loop Current is very unstable right now, and is ready to cut off into a giant clockwise-rotating eddy, an event that occurs every 6 - 11 months. This event could occur today or tomorrow, in which case the ribbon of southwestward-moving oil would turn due west and then north, eventually winding up back near the site of the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Roffer's Ocean Fishing Forecast Service has a nice discussion on the possibility of the Loop Current cutting off into a Loop Current Eddy, and they note in today's discussion that there appears to be a developing eastward flow of water directly from the Yucatan Peninsula to the Florida Keys. Keep in mind, though, that during the first month that a Loop Current Eddy forms, it exchanges a considerable amount of water with the Loop Current. Even if a Loop Current Eddy forms today, I still expect we will see some oil make the turn eastward and flow past the Florida Keys by Wednesday. My guess is that the oil will be too thin and scattered to cause significant problems in the Keys, but there is great uncertainty on this.

Oil spill resources
My post Wednesday with answers to some of the common questions I get about the spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA trajectory forecasts
Deepwater Horizon Unified Command web site
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Surface current forecasts from NOAA's HYCOM model
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

I'll be back with a new post Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Herbert's Box is back...hopefully, the same great people who were so kind last year, are still here. A novice weather geek, be patient with my questions (as always) and I'll be as cordial in my snarky responses.

You guys are good people.
2002. Drakoen
I see the NHC has released a special TWO on this non-tropical low. Not really surprising since it has been a special in the discussions.
Quoting Drakoen:
I see the NHC has released a special TWO on this non-tropical low. Not really surprising since it has been a special in the discussions.
You're still not expecting development huh Drak?
2004. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
I see the NHC has released a special TWO on this non-tropical low. Not really surprising since it has been a special in the discussions.


But significant because it is the first mention from them that there is a significant possibility for subtropical or tropical development of this system.
Quoting Levi32:


But significant because it is the first mention from them that there is a significant possibility for subtropical or tropical development of this system.
Correct.
Well this is the first Dr. Master's blog to get 2000+ comments since the last hurricane season---so I guess the season is here!
2007. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90L looks like a giant bird.
Quoting winter123:

Ok I get that last years 90L was not named because it would have caused panic about the upcoming season. But it was not named in post-season either!? Why?


I remember a huge pressure drop in association with that system on dauphin Island I believe...
2009. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


But significant because it is the first mention from them that there is a significant possibility for subtropical or tropical development of this system.


30% chance
I've been lurking for a year or so, and with the new developments in the tropics as of late, I'd like to ask: if a subtropical storm were to reach hurricane strength, what would its designation be? Would it be called a subtropical hurricane, just a hurricane, or something else completely different? Thanks for the answers in advance!
2011. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Well this is the first Dr. Master's blog to get 2000 comments since the last hurricane season---so I guess the season is here!


"Community Participation:

2388 comments and 42 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours."

This number was 600-700 in February, March, and April.
About the current 90L... I don't get how it's up to orange circle and people are saying it looks so nice. Being a satellite-caster I notice the deep convection is going further away from the COC all day and it looks like a weakening system to me.

Shortwave loop

and I also notice that all models initiate it moving north when it's been moving S or SE all day. I'm just confused.
Does anyone know when the University of Miami satellite loops will be enabled? This is the last link I have. Link
Quoting Ossqss:


Congrats on being 2000
Windsat from this evening gives a partial look at the competing circulation on the east edge of 90L.
2017. Levi32
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
E. Pac has so much heat content already it's ridiculous.

If at any time the atmospheric conditions become even remotely favorable over there, it's going to be like one of those sci-fi disaster movies.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html


That is normal for this time of year.
2018. Drakoen
Quoting winter123:
About the current 90L... I don't get how it's up to orange circle and people are saying it looks so nice. Being a satellite-caster I notice the deep convection is going further away from the COC all day and it looks like a weakening system to me.

Shortwave loop

and I also notice that all models initiate it moving north when it's been moving S or SE all day. I'm just confused.


The surface low is well removed from the convection
2019. Levi32
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Does anyone know when the University of Miami satellite loops will be enabled? This is the last link I have. Link


They've been down all winter so I don't know if they are coming back.
Quoting Levi32:


"Community Participation:

2388 comments and 42 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours."

This number was 600-700 in February, March, and April.
Where do you find those numbers?
2021. Drakoen
Quoting Skyepony:
Windsat from this evening gives a partial look at the competing circulation on the east edge of 90L.


Far away from the convection
2022. leo305
90L is looking like crap.. and to think it's night time, when a storm tends to develop greatly..
2024. Drakoen
Unfavorable flow aloft pumping in dry air into the system:

Quoting leo305:
90L is looking like crap.. and to think it's night time, when a storm tends to develop greatly..


NHC doesn't seem to think so now

90L looked way worse last night
2029. Levi32
Quoting winter123:
About the current 90L... I don't get how it's up to orange circle and people are saying it looks so nice. Being a satellite-caster I notice the deep convection is going further away from the COC all day and it looks like a weakening system to me.

Shortwave loop

and I also notice that all models initiate it moving north when it's been moving S or SE all day. I'm just confused.


The surface circulations keep getting tugged southwest by the low-level steering flow. A new one will likely form the north, which has happened twice already over the last 2 days. The NHC is recognizing the potential that we have been talking about on here for days, that once the surface low becomes vertically stacked under the upper low that is starting to cut-off near the eastern seaboard, tropical processes will have a chance to start taking over partial responsibility for sustaining the system, and subtropical development could then ensue. Right now it is behaving normally for an extratropical low, but you can see the convection trying to build next to the surface low whenever it reforms. This current swirl should continue to drift south and dissipate as a new one forms overnight.
90L gives me a headache, there could be convection trying to wrap around on the Southeast side but idk.
ASCAT just missed the main feature..
NAO has been going through an "Up-down" phase over the past month.

GFDL 18z

2034. Levi32
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
2017:

not quite. Someone showed a SST graphic earlier, and its about half a degree to a degree above the same date in 2005, and arguably over a wider area...You could tell because the graphic used increments of half degrees in it's colors.


SSTs are a bit above normal, but not horrifically so, and they aren't going to get any warmer as the La Nina starts invading the eastern pacific. That, along with the associated higher surface pressures, will keep the east Pacific season normal to below-normal this year.

Besides, the Atlantic is warmer.

and..........action,90L is begining to intensify,by tomorrow evening we should have alex,IMO
Quoting leo305:
90L is looking like crap.. and to think it's night time, when a storm tends to develop greatly..


CycloneOz impersonating tough guy Frank 'The Fixer' Acavano from the 1986 movie "Wise Guys."

*ahem...*cough*

"Can I kill 90L now, Mr. Castelo? Please? I'm ready to kill it."
A lot of models bring 90L close to Bermuda, how strong do you think 90L will be then?
Trying to look at that center that is moving south is pointless for 90L, because this system will develop a new circulation and will continue to do so until it find those conditions the models and now the NHC say will exist in about 48 hours

The models have verified very well
Quoting Hurricanes101:


NHC doesn't seem to think so now

90L looked way worse last night


No, I don't think it did.

Granted, I'm currently in the development crowd, but unless it does something to mitigate the dry air soon, 90L isn't going to develop.
2041. Dakster
Strong STS.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, I don't think it did.

Granted, I'm currently in the development crowd, but unless it does something to mitigate the dry air soon, 90L isn't going to develop.


That is the forecast of the models, that dry air will not be as much of a factor in a few days according to them
Quoting Patrap:






oil spill gulf of mexico 2010
Added by Matthew Hinton, The Times-Picayune on May 23, 2010 at 6:48 PM

MATTHEW HINTON / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A nesting pelican, left, in Barataria Bay is covered in brown oil from Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday May 23 2010.



pelican eggs
Added by Bob Marshall, The Times-Picayune on May 23, 2010 at 6:53 PM

BOB MARSHALL/THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil from the BP blowout in the Gulf of Mexico seeps into a brown pelican nesting area in Barataria Bay. Thousands of pelicans, along with some terns, roseate spoonbills and herons, are nesting on a series of small mangrove and grass islands on the eastern side of the bay. Oil absorbing booms were placed around the rookeries sometime after Wednesday, but oil still managed to soak about the first six inches of the shorelines and seep into the nesting areas through gaps in the booms. May 23, 2010.


a sign of things to come

we should all pull together and buy stock in PROCTER & GAMBLE....the company that owns DAWN

this is so bad and it hasn't even really "HIT" yet, this is so worse than Katrina, I know some of you can't believe that but it really is

....but ppl in Biloxi who can't take their boats out to make a living were asking how much a washed up oil covered boom on the beach goes for on Ebay..... it's a running joke

keep up the good work Pat!!!
Quoting Drakoen:


Far away from the convection


Not at all. The lower left of the WINDSAT 24N 58W is under the deepest convection well southeast of the naked swirl. Interesting too that is trying to get something going at the surface. It matches the competing vorticity that should eventually be absorbed into 90L.
2045. Drakoen
Models continue to show the low being south of the convection for another 24 hours.
Quoting Drakoen:
Models continue to show the low being south of the convection for another 24 hours.


That sounds about right, after that conditions should be more favorable
Good night all!
2048. Drakoen
Quoting Skyepony:


Not at all. The lower left of the WINDSAT 24N 58W is under the deepest convection well southeast of the naked swirl. Interesting too that is trying to get something going at the surface. It matches the competing vorticity that should eventually be absorbed into 90L.


Sorry read the wrong coordinates. I see what you are saying though
Eastern Pacific has been extremely quiet for quite some time now. Not one single disturbance since the season started. Signs of a La Nina possibly forming, correct?
2050. Levi32
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
A lot of models bring 90L close to Bermuda, how strong do you think 90L will be then?


Assuming it becomes a subtropical storm, it will likely be weakening as it approaches Bermuda, as the upper trough picking it up will cause upper-level conditions to be less than perfect, and SSTs as you go east of the Gulf Stream towards Bermuda start dropping off to below 23C, the threshold to support a subtropical system.

Quoting Dakster:
Strong STS.


Better than a strong STD...those can be nasty.
BREAKING NEWS FROM MY BUSINESS CAYMAN HURRICANE CENTER

THE NEW SURFACE MAP(00Z) ARE IN AND THIS IS WHAT IT SHOWS LOOK AT MAINLY AT BAHAMAS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN



Quoting AllStar17:
Eastern Pacific has been extremely quiet for quite some time now. Not one single disturbance since the season started. Signs of a La Nina possibly forming, correct?

Looks like La Nina to me according to the dailies.
00Z surface maps looks like they show that center moving south dissipating and a new one has formed
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


I dont think "possibly forming" is the right term.

Developed La Nina is better.



Yep. I hope that residents along the coast are prepared for the upcoming season. Not that the current 90L is an absolute harbinger of things to come....but with the conditions the way they are right now.....this could be a rough season.
2056. Dakster
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Better than a strong STD...those can be nasty.


yep and the effects are felt for years.
...and kidcayman?
New low is around 28N 70W
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Better than a strong STD...those can be nasty.


I lol'd.
Interesting.

Thanks levi :)
2063. Patrap


National Hurricane Preparedness Week

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster. Hurricane Preparedness Week during 2010 will be held May 23rd through May 29th.

The goal of this Hurricane Preparedness Web site is to inform the public about the hurricane hazards and provide knowledge which can be used to take ACTION. This information can be used to save lives at work, home, while on the road, or on the water.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Better than a strong STD...those can be nasty.


There it is, I have been waiting 2 days for someone to use that... I did't dare.
*Repost*
Current Position of 90L (8 pm)
For those interested. TXKF (Bermuda) 00z Sounding

Quoting AllStar17:


Very nice!

Photoshop?
there's no place like home
there's no place like home............

good evening everyone!
12 hour radar
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Very nice!

Photoshop?


No, actually I use PowerPoint and Google Earth.

Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Very nice!

Photoshop?


Seems like you like it.

I will continue to do those all season.
2072. xcool



Quoting weathersp:


There it is, I have been waiting 2 days for someone to use that... I did't dare.


You can always count on me!
Quoting AllStar17:


No, actually I use PowerPoint and Google Earth.



Wow. Impressive.

I would ask for a tutorial, but it would probably be too hard to explain. lol
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow. Impressive.

I would ask for a tutorial, but it would probably be too hard to explain. lol


Yeah it is. I've tried to explain it to some people, but I do not think they understand.
Another reason for the increased chance of development tonight

according to atcf, this system has the pressure AND the winds to already be a named storm

It just needs the organization
Quoting AllStar17:


Yeah it is. I've tried to explain it to some people, but I do not think they understand.

Yeah, I just stuck with Photoshop CS4. Much easier IMO.

I like your quality better though.
xcool...Don't you have a family? You seem to be on here way to long during a day?
2079. xcool
GeoffreyWPB yeahh. i just got home..
from john seach:

Sunday 23rd May 2010
Katla volcano, Iceland
In the past 48 hours 3 earthquakes occurred at Katla volcano, Iceland. The earthquakes may be due to ice movements within Mýrdalsjökull glacier or magma movement under the volcano. Scientists have been keeping a close watch on Katla volcano, due to the possibility of an eruption triggered by the activity at nearby Eyjafjallajokull. An eruption of Katla volcano has the potential to be more devastating than the current eruption of Eyjafjallajokull.
Funny how the GFS model for 90 draws a fish.

2082. Dakster
If EUrope thought that they were inconvenienced by the ash from 'E', just wait and see what happens if 'K' erupts...
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Wow. Impressive.

I would ask for a tutorial, but it would probably be too hard to explain. lol

These are some examples I still have from last year:




Quoting AllStar17:

These are some examples I still have from last year:






Wow you did that!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
BREAKING NEWS FROM MY BUSINESS CAYMAN HURRICANE CENTER

THE NEW SURFACE MAP(00Z) ARE IN AND THIS IS WHAT IT SHOWS LOOK AT MAINLY AT BAHAMAS AND THE SW CARIBBEAN





ok so alot of us bloggers are thankful for ur posts, you do a great job, but could you plz stop with the BREAKING NEWS crap?? what you posted is far from BREAKING NEWS

now if a system all of sudden hits cat 3,4 or 5, now that's BREAKING NEWS........and this goes for all of you who feel the NEED to post BREAKING NEWS at the start of ur posts before June 1st, heck can we all wait to post BREAKING NEWS before July 15?

it's going to be a long, long season, with many, many systems. Not to mention when a Gulf storm occurs, the oil spill issue that will effect our coast lines in such ways that it makes Katrina look like a mud puddle.....

Alot of ppl come here to find out what is going on or to get a heads up on a system before the media can report it

I am begging you....stop with the Breaking News stuff because all it is doing is breaking ppl down.

June 1st isnt even here yet and we really don't need any BREAKING NEWS crap on some Low that changes directions by every model run

But hey, keep up the good work on ur posts about 90L or the Low.......key word there is a LOW!!!
Quoting MrstormX:


Wow you did that!


Yes. And I will do the same for this year's season.
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


ok so alot of us bloggers are thankful for ur posts, you do a great job, but could you plz stop with the BREAKING NEWS crap?? what you posted is far from BREAKING NEWS

now if a system all of sudden hits cat 3,4 or 5, now that's BREAKING NEWS........and this goes for all of you who feel the NEED to post BREAKING NEWS at the start of ur posts before June 1st, heck can we all wait to post BREAKING NEWS before July 15?

it's going to be a long, long season, with many, many systems. Not to mention when a Gulf storm occurs, the oil spill issue that will effect our coast lines in such ways that it makes Katrina look like a mud puddle.....

Alot of ppl come here to find out what is going on or to get a heads up on a system before the media can report it

I am begging you....stop with the Breaking News stuff because all it is doing is breaking ppl down.

June 1st isnt even here yet and we really don't need any BREAKING NEWS crap on some Low that changes directions by every model run

But hey, keep up the good work on ur posts about 90L or the Low.......key word there is a LOW!!!


Agreed
Quoting gulfcoastdweller:


ok so alot of us bloggers are thankful for ur posts, you do a great job, but could you plz stop with the BREAKING NEWS crap?? what you posted is far from BREAKING NEWS

now if a system all of sudden hits cat 3,4 or 5, now that's BREAKING NEWS........and this goes for all of you who feel the NEED to post BREAKING NEWS at the start of ur posts before June 1st, heck can we all wait to post BREAKING NEWS before July 15?

it's going to be a long, long season, with many, many systems. Not to mention when a Gulf storm occurs, the oil spill issue that will effect our coast lines in such ways that it makes Katrina look like a mud puddle.....

Alot of ppl come here to find out what is going on or to get a heads up on a system before the media can report it

I am begging you....stop with the Breaking News stuff because all it is doing is breaking ppl down.

June 1st isnt even here yet and we really don't need any BREAKING NEWS crap on some Low that changes directions by every model run

But hey, keep up the good work on ur posts about 90L or the Low.......key word there is a LOW!!!


Agreed and the Caps are really annoying...
Quoting AllStar17:

These are some examples I still have from last year:






Honestly...those are better than most local news stations maps that I have seen.
AllStar17 those are very good!
Quoting AllStar17:


Yes. And I will do the same for this year's season.


Awesome.

Cant wait.
90L needs convection and this floater needs to be relocated more to the north.
Im out for the night.

G'night everyone.
Quoting AllStar17:


No, actually I use PowerPoint and Google Earth.



How actually did you manage to do this with such simple software?
RMKS/1. METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION AT 231200Z:
A TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS PRODUCING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN OPAREAS THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS TRACKS
NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFIES PRODUCING SUB-GALE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS
BY MID OUTLOOK PERIOD.
2. VACAPES OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 240000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, 3 TO 5 IN SHOWERS, 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): EASTERLY 10 TO 15 GUSTS 20, INCREASING 15
TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 24/18Z, BACKING EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30
BY 25/00Z. EXPECT GUSTS OF UP TO 40 KNOTS IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5, BUILDING 4 TO 6 BY 24/06Z,
FURTHER BUILDING 5 TO 7 BY 24/18Z, FINALLY BUILDING EASTERLY 7
TO 9 BY 25/00Z. EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT LESS COASTAL.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 72/63.
F. SST(F/C): COASTAL: 61/16. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 78/26.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30,
INCREASING 25 TO 30 GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z. SEAS: EASTERLY 7 TO 9,
BUILDING EAST-NORTHEAST 8 TO 11 BY 25/12Z, FURTHER BUILDING 10
TO 14 BY 25/18Z. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT LESS COASTAL.
3. CHERRY PT OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 240000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, 3 TO 5 IN SHOWERS, 1 TO 3 IN THUNDERSTORMS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): VARIABLE 5 TO 10, INCREASING EASTERLY 10
TO 15 GUSTS 20 BY 24/12Z, BACKING EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25
BY 25/00Z. EXPECT GUSTS 0F UP TO 35 KNOTS IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): SOUTHEAST 3 TO 5, BUILDING 4 TO 6 BY 24/12Z,
FURTHER BUILDING 5 TO 7 BY 24/18Z, FINALLY BUILDING EASTERLY 6 TO 8
BY 25/00Z. EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT LESS COASTAL.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 75/65.
F. SST (F/C): COASTAL: 63/17. VICINITY OF GULF STREAM: 73/23.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25,
BACKING NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING 25 TO 30
GUSTS 40 BY 25/12Z. SEAS: EASTERLY 6 TO 8, BUILDING 7 TO 9
BY 25/06Z, BECOMING EAST-NORTHEAST 9 TO 12 BY 25/12Z, BUILDING 10
TO 14 BY 26/00Z. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT LESS COASTAL.
4. CHARLESTON OPAREA 24 HOUR FORECAST COMMENCING 240000Z.
A. SKY, WEATHER: MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
B. VSBY (NM): 7, 3 TO 5 IN SHOWERS.
C. SURFACE WIND (KTS): VARIABLE 5 TO 10, INCREASING EASTERLY 10 TO 15
GUSTS 20 BY 24/18Z, BACKING EAST-NORTHEAST BY 25/00Z.
D. COMBINED SEAS (FT): EASTERLY 3 TO 5, BUILDING 5 TO 7 BY 24/18Z.
EXPECT SEAS 1 TO 3 FT LESS COASTAL.
E. MAX/MIN TEMPS (F): 77/69.
F. SST (F/C): 73/23.
G. OUTLOOK TO 48 HOURS: WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 GUSTS 20,
BACKING NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 GUSTS 25 BY 25/06Z, INCREASING
NORTH-NORTHEAST 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 BY 25/18Z, FURTHER INCREASING 25
TO 30 GUSTS 40 IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OPAREA BY 26/00Z. SEAS:
EASTERLY 5 TO 7, BUILDING 7 TO 9 BY 25/06Z, FURTHER BUILDING 8 TO 11
BY 25/12Z. EXPECT SEAS 2 TO 4 FT LESS COASTAL.
Quoting futuremet:


How actually did you manage to do this with such simple software?


By first using Google Earth for the image, then shapes/text boxes/etc. for the extra enhancements (top information/city names, etc.)
Quoting reedzone:
Something very interesting with 90L, it has a comma shape cloud, the center is well south of that, does anyone believe a low could form later around 27N 69W?



I think it's possible, makes sense because the convection is around that area. It also looks to me that the current center/swirl is starting to weaken, maybe it's just me..

I also see some beginning pops of storms forming south of the comma shaped convection. 90L is still not organized to be transitioned, but I'd thought I say what I feel is happening. I still think it has a very good chance at requiring Subtropical characteristics by tomorrow, maybe into Tuesday. The window is open.



Whoaa, I was right! A center was forming, it formed just one degrees off of where I saw it forming. Awesome! I expect a nice blow up by morning, I see the NHC is finally paying attention to this as well.
Quoting wadedanielsmith:
2082: Dakster:

How big was teh "E" eruption rated on the VEI?

As I understand it, the "K" volcano always erupts immediately after, and usually much worse.

From what I saw anyway, "E" looked to be maybe a VEI 4 or less even, but then again, that's just my guesstimate, and hard to judge just from some anecdotal videos.

For comparison, Mt. St. Helens flank collapse is VEI 5, and it's an exponential scale.


E is very small eruption mabye a VEI of 1 or 2. Katla when it does go is expected to be a 3 based on past eruptions.
2103. Patrap
Invest90
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



are joe bastardi's daily tropical updates open to non-subscribers again? I may start watching them if so. Many fond memories from back in 2003/4 when it was free. Link
2105. xcool



new gfs
2106. xcool


OOZ



Wasn't on earlier did anyone mention first code orange of the season by NHC,
if anyone missed it earler

I knew someone had to of had that covered just checking.
Blog clearly dying, I'm going myself as well. Probably will be on post-10pm (EST) as usual lately. For the first time in days I think 90L may have a chance. We'll see tomorrow.
wind shear is droping in the west caribbean and bahamas over invest 90L and our SW Caribbean AOI

2115. xcool
ouch droping wind shear
2116. Levi32
The 0z Canadian at 72 hours shows 90L intensifying as it stalls off the SE US coast as a warm-core low with a very tropical look to the precipitation pattern, showing a convective ring around a clear center. This is Subtropical Storm Alex on the CMC. The potential for this is very much there. We can't write off 90L yet. Everything is on schedule so far.

Surface:



Precipitation:


2117. xcool
Levi32 true..
2118. BDAwx
Bermuda Weather Service Forecast for the marine area
Monday evening
Seas Inside the reef: 3-5ft
Outside the reef: 12-17ft
Winds E 25-35 gusts 50 kts
2119. Levi32
For what it's worth, the 0z GFS has 90L stalling for 1-2 extra days off the SE US coast compared to its previous runs, having the trough take longer to finally pick up the system. This scenario could potentially give 90L more time to pick up tropical characteristics or strengthen if it already has them before that time.

I should point out that although the first shortwave rotating around the longwave trough may miss 90L, there is almost no way for 90L to be completely missed by the trough and get stuck, because the mean upper trough will be digging down south of the Canadian Maritimes in 6-7 days anyway, so 90L will almost certainly be picked up before the end of the week, no matter what.

Here's the 0z GFS....90L still hanging around at 108 hours:

2120. xcool


2122. xcool


I tried posting this a little earlier, but the blog got too active, and I never got an answer, so sorry if anyone has read this before. I'd like to ask: if a subtropical storm were to reach hurricane strength, what would its designation be? Would it be called a subtropical hurricane, just a hurricane, or something else completely different? Thanks for the answers in advance!
2124. Levi32
Quoting purplesuede:
I tried posting this a little earlier, but the blog got too active, and I never got an answer, so sorry if anyone has read this before. I'd like to ask: if a subtropical storm were to reach hurricane strength, what would its designation be? Would it be called a subtropical hurricane, just a hurricane, or something else completely different? Thanks for the answers in advance!


According to the NHC, "subtropical hurricanes" do not exist. Theoretically, it is impossible for a subtropical cyclone to generate hurricane-force winds without first becoming fully warm-core. The dynamics available to a subtropical storm are not strong enough to produce that kind of wind, and thus the NHC doesn't even use the term "subtropical hurricane". If a subtropical storm were to attain hurricane force winds, the NHC would likely consider it fully tropical and label it a regular hurricane.

However, a subtropical low can sometimes have hurricane-force winds on one side of it if there is a strong high nearby creating a strong pressure gradient between itself and the storm. We are currently seeing this take shape with 90L with 40mph sustained winds already on its north side. These winds may approach hurricane-force at some point. Strong winds generated in this way by a strong pressure gradient are called "gradient-induced winds". However, such winds are usually well-removed from the center of a subtropical storm, and in that situation the storm would probably not be named at all in the first place. This is again illustrated by Invest 90L, in that there are tropical storm-force winds associated with the system, but they are removed from the center due to its current extratropical nature, and thus 90L isn't named despite having such strong winds.
2125. Levi32
Goodnight all.
Quoting weathersp:
Very Interesting and very detailed write up about the factors for the
upcoming hurricane season, along with an experimental hurricane # prediction system
and a landfall threat chart based on month. (about a 15 minute read, and they nailed it last year).


Wouldn't it be much better if someone just gave you the location for where landfall would take place ... ?

Hurricane Ike was arguable the most widespread windstorm to ever strike North America, cutting a 200 mile wide swath from U.S. border to border.

Take for instance the following forecast, and published well in advance of Ike.

Ever heard the phrase ... "a little bird told me?"

There's "wishcasting," and then there's [something else ...]

From the thread [Discovery flies on eve of Atlantic hurricane season & Arthur forms - August 27, 2008 - Post 43]







2127. xcool



new ecwmf
Quoting xcool:



new ecwmf

Hmm... looks even more organized on the model, than before. Correct me if I'm wrong, though.

-Snowlover123 loves snow! It's just that simple!
2129. Dakster
xcool,

Not really fond of that new run... I bet people in the "Carolinas" are even less so...
2130. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
530 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE AT 27N70W 1007 MB WILL MOVE N NW TO
NEAR 30N72W TUE AND DRIFT W ALONG 31N WED...THEN MOVE E ALONG
31N THU AND FRI PASSING NEAR BERMUDA SAT. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A
TROUGH S ALONG 70W THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE LOW WILL DRAG A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE NW WATERS WED REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS FRI
NIGHT.
2132. IKE
90L looks more non-tropical to me then it did yesterday.

Maybe I'll change my opinion when the sun comes up over it.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Wouldn't it be much better if someone just gave you the location for where landfall would take place ... ?

Hurricane Ike was arguable the most widespread windstorm to ever strike North America, cutting a 200 mile wide swath from U.S. border to border.

Take for instance the following forecast, and published well in advance of Ike.

Ever heard the phrase ... "a little bird told me?"

There's "wishcasting," and then there's [something else ...]

From the thread [Discovery flies on eve of Atlantic hurricane season & Arthur forms - August 27, 2008 - Post 43]









So space shuttle launches form Hurricanes in the Atlantic? There where 2 last year in cane season.. 1 a few weeks before hand.. slow season..
2134. IKE
Bermuda...

Civil Air Terminal, BE (Airport)
Updated: 21 min 53 sec ago
Overcast
72 F
Overcast
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 64 F
Wind: 23 mph from the East
Pressure: 30.06 in (Falling)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 1700 ft
Mostly Cloudy 19000 ft
Overcast 30000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 10 ft


2135. P451
Good Morning. I see 90L is beginning to really take shape as per Weather456's forecasting.

36 Hours, WV Imagery, 90L

2136. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
257 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PUSH THE LOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
-- End Changed Discussion --

MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
NE-SE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY WITH A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT
ALONG THE COAST AS OFFSHORE LOW DRIFTS NW. SEAS ALREADY 5 FT AT
DIAMOND SHOALS EARLY THIS MORN SO WILL MOVE UP TIMING OF SCA TO
LATE MORN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WILL ALSO HOIST
SCA FOR NORTHERN MARINE ZONE AS HIGHER SEAS WORK NORTH THIS EVE.
WIND SPEEDS LIKELY NOT REACHING SCA CRITERIA UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK
TUES SO HOLDING OFF ON SCA FOR SOUNDS FOR NOW.

WINDS INCREASING TO SOLID SCA LATER TUE THRU WED AS SFC LOW
APPROACHES THE SE COAST. THIS LONG FETCH OF WINDS WILL RESULT IN
SEAS OFF THE OBX REACHING 9 TO 12 FEET LATE TUE INTO WED. THE LOW
WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION LATER WED AND THU AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE N AND CROSSES THE AREA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA FRI. SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME DOWN AND EXPECT SCA
TO LINGER INTO THU OR EVEN THU NIGHT OFF OBX. THESE LARGE WAVES
WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS BEGINNING
TODAY ALONG THE COAST.
-- End Changed Discussion --





Hey everyone been away for a while but I'll be back now because of the tropical season about to start. I've been conducting my own research and have been reviewing others. I really believe this will be an active season, although not like 2005. I'm calling 16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 majors.

I have a question for the experienced bloggers on here and it is: how strong is the high in the Atlantic forcasted to be? I know it's near impossible to see into the future but I'm curiouse as to what people are thinking. Will this be a fishy season, or a strong high steering everything toward the U.S season? Thanks in advance for any input! Have a great day
Quoting IKE:
90L looks more non-tropical to me then it did yesterday.

Maybe I'll change my opinion when the sun comes up over it.
It's actually taking shape as forecasted. I think 90L will be upgraded to red later today.
2140. P451
"I have seen glaciers in the Arctic, the Alps, Central Africa, Antarctica and the Himalayas -- and it's the same story everywhere," he said.

"Most glaciers are melting away. The glaciers in the Himalayas are not just ice. They are a lifeline -- they provide water to approximately two billion people."

British Man Braves Icy Waters to Become First to Swim Under Mt. Everest
2141. bcn
Nice loop:



according to ship measurements (QuickScat, where are you?) winds near 30 knots.

Regards.
2142. P451
Quoting IKE:
90L looks more non-tropical to me then it did yesterday.

Maybe I'll change my opinion when the sun comes up over it.


Very small chance we see Alex but I think a high chance there will be debate on here regarding whether or not it should be named in the coming days.

Seems to be just starting to wrap up around it's newest center. Let's see if it cuts off that dry air.

Regardless, if 90L were to become an STS, it was going to be a week long process, not an hours long process.

And in the end it's just showing that this season is primed to be a big one. The tropics have been quite active this May.
Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey everyone been away for a while but I'll be back now because of the tropical season about to start. I've been conducting my own research and have been reviewing others. I really believe this will be an active season, although not like 2005. I'm calling 16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, 4-5 majors.

I have a question for the experienced bloggers on here and it is: how strong is the high in the Atlantic forcasted to be? I know it's near impossible to see into the future but I'm curious as to what people are thinking. Will this be a fishy season, or a strong high steering everything toward the U.S season? Thanks in advance for any input! Have a great day
I'm not "experienced", but I can answer your question. The current NAO index has been like a roller coaster lately but is expected to stay relatively negative throughout the season. This intern weakens the A/B high and also weakens the Icelandic low. This is a kind of complicated subject so below I tried to show what the Bermuda/Azores high is expected to be like, in lets say September.



All of the S.E US should be on guard throughout the season, with Florida and the Gulf coast on the highest guard.
00z ECMWF stalls 90L along the Carolina coast for about 48 hours.

48 Hours:


96 Hours:


It's in that time that 90L is over the warm Gulf stream that the warm core transition should take place. Expect "Alex" to develop, as per models, within 72 hours.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0686
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0606 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN NEB AND WESTERN/CENTRAL SD TO SOUTHERN ND

CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE

VALID 241106Z - 241300Z

BASED ON OVERNIGHT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE/OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...THE 13Z
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL UPGRADE TO A CATEGORICAL MODERATE RISK
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEB...WESTERN AND CENTRAL SD...AND
SOUTHERN ND. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...TORNADOES...AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL METEOROLOGICAL
DISCUSSION...PLEASE CONSULT THE FORTHCOMING 13Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK. A
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK /PWO/ WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
Thank you miamihurricanes for your in depth view on things. My only question about your explanation is wouldn't a weaker A/B high allow storms to recurve out to sea? Thanks man
805 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010


...SPECIAL FEATURE...

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE WEST OF 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS ONE 1007 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO A SECOND 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N69W...AND CONTINUING TO HAITI
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTER TO DISSIPATE...AND FOR THE
NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD. GALE-FORCE WINDS
ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 28N72W TO 28N65W
TO 23N61W. SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 11 FT TO 19 FT. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

Quoting Funkadelic:
Thank you miamihurricanes for your in depth view on things. My only question about your explanation is wouldn't a weaker A/B high allow storms to recurve out to sea? Thanks man
One would think that but since it's already setting more to the south and west than usual you wouldn't get too many curving systems, although I'm pretty sure we will get some throughout the season.
90L trying to close off but the dry air is pretty much penetrating it. I have to go, have great day. I'll be checking in later today.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's actually taking shape as forecasted. I think 90L will be upgraded to red later today.


Yea... now it needs to rapidly deepen. Let's see how well it does that!
Quoting P451:
Good Morning. I see 90L is beginning to really take shape as per Weather456's forecasting.

36 Hours, WV Imagery, 90L



Very nicely formed. It looks like Andrea of '07 before it turned Subtropical.

What exactly was Weather456's forecast?
Sea surface temperature anomalies continue to decrease from what they were a few weeks ago. The sea surface temperature is not declining, just getting closer to climatology.


2155. WxLogic
Good Morning...
Quoting Weather456:
Good morning

Code orange for 90L; Bermuda to get rains, gusty winds and rough seas
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: INVEST AREA 90L SYNOPSIS MAY 24, 2010 ISSUED 7:30 A.M.
Both of you you did a wonderful blog. I have to go. Buh Bye!
The smell of oil is really strong this morning. That is a very sickening smell, yuk!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Sea surface temperature anomalies continue to decrease from what they were a few weeks ago. The sea surface temperature is not declining, just getting closer to climatology.




By the graphics of NAO,it turned slightly positive at times but the forecast is to return to negative and that will turn the anomalies warmer again.
2160. IKE
NHC needs to adjust the floater on 90L to the north about 100 miles.

Interested to see if they schedule a recon.
Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE: INVEST AREA 90L SYNOPSIS MAY 24, 2010 ISSUED 7:30 A.M.


Hey Storm, love your blogs I have learned so much from your expert analysis. As I was asking miamihurricanes earlier, what is your take on the High for the atlantic this year?
2162. IKE
High temperature here yesterday...96.1 °F

Forecast high today of 95.
Quoting StormW:


Well, we know how Mother Nature doesn't play by the "rules" sometimes. The high fluctuate in position of course, however, depending on how strong we get into La Nina, or even a neutral, with cold bias, the high is affected to where tracks indicate a greater threat for U.S. Landfalls. A fairly good La Nina can shift track further south and west, making the GOMEX Vulnerable. In fact, when I return, I'm gonna point something out.


Hmmm? Why doesn't that sound good? Lol. Good morning Storm. Everyone.
Quoting StormW:


Well, we know how Mother Nature doesn't play by the "rules" sometimes. The high fluctuate in position of course, however, depending on how strong we get into La Nina, or even a neutral, with cold bias, the high is affected to where tracks indicate a greater threat for U.S. Landfalls. A fairly good La Nina can shift track further south and west, making the GOMEX Vulnerable. In fact, when I return, I'm gonna point something out.


Sounds good boss, I look forward to what your going to point out! Gosh I wish you could replace my weatherman here in south Florida on WSVN.
Regarding 90L (from the 8 AM NHC Discussion):

DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 60W. SOME OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW EVEN REACHES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS ONE 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N70W TO A SECOND 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N69W...AND CONTINUING TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FOR THE SOUTHERN LOW CENTER TO DISSIPATE AND FOR THE NORTHERN LOW CENTER TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE 28N72W TO 28N65W TO 23N61W.

SEA HEIGHTS WILL RANGE FROM 11 FT TO 19 FT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. OTHER POSSIBLE SHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W.

Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?



A hurricane...had to say it
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?



Numerous tropical systems IMO.
Good Morning all. Storm that is a scary graphic. I can only hope the forecast is wrong.
Quoting IKE:
High temperature here yesterday...96.1 °F

Forecast high today of 95.

Morning Ike I had a high of 97.3 almost got some rain but it went poof.
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?





Oh no. That's what I was afraid of. I noticed the fluctuating NAO recently. And that reminded me of how timing is everything. 90L couldve been a lot worse with higher ssts and less shear, different steering. And there was also a pesky low in the Yucatan/BOC area for a few days. The SSTS were there but the shear did it in. In a later month that wouldve been scary. And the Caribbean looks like its ready to take advantage of any tropical conditions it can get. Gonna be a long summer for all of us.
2177. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike I had a high of 97.3 almost got some rain but it went poof.


There were afternoon storms here too...but, not at my house.

I noticed the buoys in the NE GOM now all near or above 80 degree water temps.

GOM is open for business.
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?





Wow that is alarming, but lets just hope a giant ice berg falling from the sky in august is the cause of the GOMEX cooling, and not a catagory 4-5 hurricane. I really should take advantage of the tax free hurricane week living in south FLA. Ahh I wonder why I left brooklyn NY six years ago. But thanks storm, I appreciate you informing me.
2179. P451
Would a seasonal forecast take into account the potential for tropical systems to cross the GOM and cause upwelling of cooler water?

If not then I would say the forecast could be looking at an early fall and early cold fronts reaching the Gulf causing the water to cool.

Good Morning Folks......Don't know the answer to Storm's morning quiz question.... :)
2181. P451
The EPac also cools as well as the Gulf in the same time frame image to image.

To me that would debunk any theory that the model is anticipating tropical activity and upwelling.



AL, 90, 2010052412, , BEST, 0, 270N, 700W, 35, 1005, LO
2183. P451
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
AL, 90, 2010052412, , BEST, 0, 270N, 700W, 35, 1005, LO




2181. P451 8:55 AM EDT on May 24, 2010

That may have been the "lifeline" clue; rapid cooling in Gomex somehow related to the rapidly cooling E-Pac side thus signalling a certain La Nina event during the season = extended H-season in the Atlantic Basin?
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?






I watched Bastardi's video yesterday and I have to say it caused a frog in my throat.
2186. pottery
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?




What !!??
StormW is being a DoomCaster?
Never thought I would see the day.
heheheheh
Good spotting Storm.
I guess it's a good thing my new pad has Hurricane glass and is on a Hospital grid.
2188. BDAwx
Quoting P451:
Would a seasonal forecast take into account the potential for tropical systems to cross the GOM and cause upwelling of cooler water?

If not then I would say the forecast could be looking at an early fall and early cold fronts reaching the Gulf causing the water to cool.



But the cold fronts would have to cool the northern gulf too.
2190. BDAwx
Quoting BDAwx:

Thats a live look northwards from the BWS HQ in St. Davids, near the airport. Behind the trees is a glimpse of St. Georges.
Good Morning to all.. Especially to sir Storm..
Quoting P451:
The EPac also cools as well as the Gulf in the same time frame image to image.

To me that would debunk any theory that the model is anticipating tropical activity and upwelling.





Why would that debunk the upwelling theory? I thought the cooler the Pacific got the better the conditions for the Atlantic hurricane season. Trying to understand. Hoping you're right. I could use an early fall. But I might could do without the freezes and snows from the last couple years. Finally killed my hibiscus. :(
2194. IKE
Buoy 41047 at 27.5N and 71.5W


Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 8.5 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 90 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.02 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 76.6 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 69.3 °F
2195. JamesSA
Quoting StormW:
Ok...I promised when I returned, I would point something out. The following graphics are the Ensemble means from the ECMWF Seasonal forecast.

The first shows projected means for JJA (June, July, August)

The second shows for ASO (Aug., Sep., Oct.)

Notice the warm GOMEX in the first, and cooling in the second graphic. Now, what do you suppose is gonna cause the GOMEX to cool like that?




Ok. Those forecasts are for SST ANOMALIES, not seas surface TEMPERATURES.

Isn't the second chart just forecasting that SST's in the Gulf will be normal for the time of year in the second half of the season? I don't see that normal SST's during the peak of the hurricane season necessarily portend catastrophe in themselves.
Ok Storm.........Enough already.......What is the Answer.......
Good Morning everyone~ Bandu is gone but we have a Laila reprise. It's close to the shore, probably won't develop much.. Nice microwave..


Fascinating SST anomaly graphic this morning. The whole tropical Atlantic is scary hot, yes, but the wave-like equatorial signal in the Pacific associated with La Nina is already present. We could be in La Nina mode very soon.

2199. IKE
ECMWF also had 90L making landfall along the Carolina coast as a significant system, which isn't going to happen...I hope.

I thought the theory was...don't believe models after so many hours?

Not doubting you StormW...just asking a question.
Quote: 2185. CyclonicVoyage

I watched Bastardi's video yesterday and I have to say it caused a frog in my throat.

Don't keep us in suspense- what did Bastardi 's video indicate?
Quoting Skyepony:
Good Morning everyone~ Bandu is gone but we have a Laila reprise. It's close to the shore, probably won't develop much.. Nice microwave..




About Bandu ,you see the remains crossing Africa and emerge as a strong wave?
Ok y'all. He was asked about where he thought the Bermuda high would be. The above normal ssts in the mdr would show a negative NAO. Lighter winds but more western set BH. Which in turn draws the tracks closer to the U.S. And those models could very well be showing upwelling in the GOM. And it's only his opinion. Like he was asked.
2205. IKE
Quoting StormW:


No problem Ike...the ECMWF is supposedly the most accurate...and based on steering layers forecast analysis...looks like this very well may stay offshore. That's why I always post, I will continue to monitor...as we have all seen that things DO change...Oh...BTW, it would be OK to doubt me...my forecasts aren't perfect!


No...I'm not doubting you or your forecast on 90L.

I was just talking about the ECMWF SST anomaly forecast for several months out.
2207. kingy
the oil webcam shows the oil is black and flowing real fast. A barrel every 2 seconds equates to 43,000 barrels a day, if that were the case it would be nearly 9 times the initial estimations.

respectfully,
Kingy
2208. JamesSA
Quoting StormW:


No..for ASO, I wouldn't expect anomalies to drop off that quick...what I'm eluding to is an increase in tropical activity in the Gulf.

Thanks. Should be an 'interesting' season!
2210. USSINS
Good morning, StormW and all.

Storm, when do you expect the strong westerly shear in the GOM to relax? Or the sTropical jet to move far enough northwards? TIA.
90l has not organized last night as I thought, due to dry air and some spurts of high shear. Although shear has lowered tremendesly over the systems yesterday from the shear is's been in. Graphs show that the system has warmed a bit and has become more symmetrical, I'm also seeing a new circulation tucked in the convection, south where the new bursts of convection are at, they finally moved the floater north.. Look near 28.8N 69.9W
Does anyone see what I'm seeing?


IF this is a new low forming, it could convince me that the system is trying to transition this morning.
Here for day one of the Governor's Hurricane Conference in Ft. Lauderdale. I'm pitching in at the Basic PIO class right now, but I'm going to be spending some serious time tomorrow interviewing Bill Read, Dr. Gray and many others...

The number of folks here this year is way down. Such a shame.
taco2me61 is the featured storm chaser this week at XtremeHurricanes.com (now transitioning to http://www.stormjunkie.com/xtreme)

He has a nice live webcam and is checked out on live webcam operations. He's out in the field today and hopes to be broadcasting live from Oklahoma this PM. He will update this blog to let you know when he is going live.

StormJunkie.com and XtremeHurricanes.com have joined forces just in time for hurricane season to begin.

Those of us chasing are now the XtremeStormJunkies team...and you'll see that the website has changed quite a bit since the weekend.

Now, you'll be able to refresh the "Severe Weather Webcam" page and bookmark it. There have been other important changes as well, but you'll see them as you go along.

So here we go! Just a few turns of the screw and we'll be firing on all cylinders towards what should be an active hurricane chase season.

Oz---
Morning all.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 241356
TWOAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
955 AM EDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 475 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF BERMUDA HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG WITH WINDS
TO GALE FORCE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND IT STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT... OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
ANOTHER STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
THIS EVENING.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS


2217. MahFL
How are we going to have an active season with all this damn shear ? The season is a bust I tell ya.
Quoting MahFL:
How are we going to have an active season with all this damn shear ? The season is a bust I tell ya.


Its May..... Seriously?
Quoting MahFL:
How are we going to have an active season with all this damn shear ? The season is a bust I tell ya.


You mean the season that hasn't started yet is already a bust? LOL.... :P
2220. P451
This is interesting. Very cold out west.

Same ol' joke, MahFL. And same ol' responses, guys.
2222. P451
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Why would that debunk the upwelling theory? I thought the cooler the Pacific got the better the conditions for the Atlantic hurricane season. Trying to understand. Hoping you're right. I could use an early fall. But I might could do without the freezes and snows from the last couple years. Finally killed my hibiscus. :(


I don't believe the model would take into account potential upwelling due to potential tropical activity. Sounds like guesswork.

If it were then what is cooling the EPac at an equal rate? The same theoretical GOM tropical activity?

Doesn't make sense.

===

#2184 is an interesting response.


So, Storm, what's the answer?

Shear will gradually start to lower, as it does every year in the MDR, in June and continue dropping into the heart of the season; particularly if El Nina conditions emerge which will considerably weaken the upper level westerlies.........Patience........Once the shear weakens, and it certainly will, all hell will probably break loose.
2224. P451
Quoting homelesswanderer:


But the cold fronts would have to cool the northern gulf too.


True. However we're dealing with anomalies and not temps. So generally the Gulf is just forecasted to come within climatology later in the season.

Maybe it's just warmer, earlier, and will eventually just reach it's climatological maximum without warming to unprecedented levels?

is anyone having trouble getting the BP live feed working. Its prompting for a login/password>?
Good morning,

So far, no outage...


May 21, 2010: Systems maintenance will be performed on the GOES East and GOES West satellite antenna coaxial cables Monday May 24, 2010. Please expect outages of these data streams that day.

2227. BDAwx
there's a little bit of a "banding" feature on Bermuda Radar about 100KM to the south of the islands. its a partially solid line around 6-7 pixels wide of higher reflectivity, and appears to be "rotating" east to west while the rest of the precipitation is moving south to north over top of this "band".

I don't think it says much for the organisation of this system because its a weak feature that ends with the edge of the rain. I would say that its an enhanced band of cumulus clouds that rotate into the storm's center.

Just thought I'd make a note of it. :)
Quoting StormW:


Good morning! Good to see you here again!


Glad to be back.. Nice to have an early start on the season.. Always nice to have something to track and discuss..
Quoting P451:


True. However we're dealing with anomalies and not temps. So generally the Gulf is just forecasted to come within climatology later in the season.

Maybe it's just warmer, earlier, and will eventually just reach it's climatological maximum without warming to unprecedented levels?



Oh ok. Thanks. That makes sense. I was looking at it as below normal. It was really hot in the gulf last year without it being bad. I could live with some shear for a while.
Quoting DentalPainDMD:
is anyone having trouble getting the BP live feed working. Its prompting for a login/password>?



working live feed

Working live feed
Quoting MahFL:
How are we going to have an active season with all this damn shear ? The season is a bust I tell ya.
the season may bust your head once it gets started blow down your house flood out your streets no power for weeks means no ac or ice for your hot busted head come back in nov to tell me how it worked out for ya
This week is National Safe Boating Week and National Hurricane Preparedness Week. Many NWS local forecast offices are issuing Public Information Statements on hurricanes.
These forecast offices have issued statements:
Charleston SC

Lake Charles LA

Raleigh NC

Birmingham AL

New York NY

Brownsville TX

Key West FL

Tampa Bay FL

Newport/Morehead City NC


You may need to click through "Previous Version" if the offices have issued additional Public Information Statements since this posting.

You can also just look at all Public Information Statements issued nationally, again clicking through "Previous Version" to view the various local forecast office statements.
Wow. The ECMWF is predicitng El Nina reflecting a far more aggressive season; will the June National Hurricane Center forcast show an increase in the number of named stroms based on this graphic information? Will Dr. William Gray's forecast also show an increase in the number of storms based on this data?


loop the floater in that location and you will see a center of circulation and then storms cover the center right then
2236. BDAwx
Quoting StormW:


Well, based on the same maps, with rainfall and pressure anomalies, I'm more to believe in the increase in activity in the GOMEX.





I find it interesting to see that while the Caribbean, Tropical Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and south-eastern US have below average pressures, that the southeastern US is excluded from the above average precipitation, except for the southern tip of Florida.

I would think that with lower pressures you would see more precipitation either with low pressure systems causing this lower pressure, or it being a weakness in a typical high pressure system directing storm systems, or just Gulf of Mexico moisture that way...
this is hurricane prep week ya all got 7 days

National Hurricane Survival Initiative
********************************************************
Before the Hurricane Season Begins
Develop a plan. Know your homes vulnerability to the threats above - surge, wind, and flooding. Check your supplies - water, batteries, food. For information on developing a Hurricane Supply kit, see our page on that topic. Know where you can evacuate to - friends, relatives, a hotel?

Know when to take action - Watch vs Warning
WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours.
WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours. Remember that there is no such thing as a "minor hurricane." Category 1 and 2 hurricanes still can do significant damage.

Prepare before a Watch or Warning is issued and be ready to evacuate when the Watch comes or earlier if so instructed.

An Approaching Storm
As a storm approaches, you should prepare your house and your yard. Some things to consider:

Turn down the temperature on your freezer and refrigerator as low as possible. This will buy you more time in the event of a power loss. 24 to 48 hours before will cool the food. Avoid opening them whenever possible.
If you are evacuating.
Before you evacuate, call at least one person out of state to let them know your plans.
Ensure that your Hurricane Emergency Kit is fully stocked.
Charge electronic devices, for example, computers, cell phones, rechargeable batteries, razors, and the like.
Make extra ice, bag it - this will be useful to use and to keep the freezer cold.
If you have a generator, do NOT run it inside or near the house. But make sure you have fuel to run it.
Make sure your car has fuel.
Pick up yard debris - furniture, tools, decorative items, branches - anything loose that could become a missile. We have placed furniture in the pool upon occasion.
Secure boats, trailers, campers, RVs, and the like in the safest place you can find. Tie them down, anchor them, or however you can best secure them. But, take into account that there may be a storm surge.
Secure all doors and windows with locks, and shutters if available. Plywood, properly secured, can be effective. Don't forget your garage doors.
Move items that may be damaged by water to higher areas of your home if you can not take them with you if evacuating. Move them away from windows in case they are broken.
Huge items must even be secured in big storms. An engine block was found 40 or 50 feet up in a pine tree in the Homestead (actually Redlands) area after Andrew. Don't think that something is too big to be moved by the wind.
Re-check tie-downs.
Bring cars, bikes, scooters and anything like that into your garage if possible.
Bring in grills or other cooking items.
Bring in hoses, trash cans, hot tub covers, wind-chimes, plants.
Caulk and fill bathtubs - extra water comes in handy for toilets and more..
It may sound strange, but do your laundry, dishes, and take a shower. Why? Because if you lose power, having as much clean as possible will make a big difference.
Check if your pool pump should be on or off.
Close and fasten gates so they don't swing.
Close chimney flues.
Close/latch inside doors and cabinets.


If you have time, help your neighbors. Debris in their yards can easily impact your home and yard.

During a storm.


Stay inside, away from windows
Be alert for tornadoes
Stay away from flood waters and storm surge. It can be deceptively strong.
Be aware of the eye. It may be calm, but winds can and will pick up quickly and could catch you outside.
Un-plug electronic devices that are not in use to avoid surge damage.

After a Storm

Know power safety - avoid downed lines
Know food safety - what is good and for how long.
Chain saw safety is critical
Generator safety is important too
Water treatment - whether water needs to be boiled or not.
Listen to local officials
Use flashlights instead of candles
Inspect your home for damage.
Stay off roads as much as possible
You may need to super-chlorinate your pool

********************************************************
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
this is hurricane prep week ya all got 7 days

National Hurricane Survival Initiative


Ya know, KOTG...I need one of these, too!

I guess it will up to me to develop it. :P

lol... :(

Oz---
Quoting DentalPainDMD:
is anyone having trouble getting the BP live feed working. Its prompting for a login/password>?


Nope i got it up working fine.......I was just watching for a mutant creature to swim by that has changed from the oil....:(
Quoting CycloneOz:


Ya know, KOTG...I need one of these, too!

I guess it will up to me to develop it. :P

lol... :(

Oz---
oz i will make you up one give me a minute will ya

2241. P451
Quoting StormW:


Well, based on the same maps, with rainfall and pressure anomalies, I'm more to believe in the increase in activity in the GOMEX.





I can see a correlation there, yes.

To some degree I am wondering that when you reach your maximum SSTs that you don't have the potential to be that far above normal overall.

It may be easier to be 4-5 degrees above climatology now - but when you're reaching your climatological maximum I don't think you have as much ability to maintain such high anomalies.

Such as maybe being 80F (5F above normal) in a given area today... cannot translate to being 5F above normal at the maximum (say, being 93F when climatology calls for 88F).

Hope this makes sense...poorly worded I know.
It appears 90L is in no worst shape or no better shape than Yesterday. If Shear drops some it might improve if shear increases it will deminish. Its wait and see! As long as it has the strong Divergence and Convergence it won't go away anytime soon until it gets kicked out in a couple of days by a trough.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
oz i will make you up one give me a minute will ya



Hey thanks! I could use a good laugh today after my busy weekend! Looking forward to shedding some tears soon! :D

Oz---
At this bouy there has been a 5mb fall in pressure the last 24hours.....

Conditions at 41048 as of
(9:50 am EDT)
1350 GMT on 05/24/2010

Currently:
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1014.7 mb


05 23 9:50am 1019.7 mb
2246. myway
Note to all. There has been a slight change to the "watch and warning" notifications this year. All watches and warnings will be posted 12 hours earlier than in the past.

Watches @ 48 hours
Warnings @ 36 hours

The change statement can be seen on the NHC website. Look @ Public information statements dated January 2, 2010.
Good morning/afternoon WU Family

NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG NEW BLOG
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
Wow. The ECMWF is predicitng El Nina reflecting a far more aggressive season; will the June National Hurricane Center forcast show an increase in the number of named stroms based on this graphic information? Will Dr. William Gray's forecast also show an increase in the number of storms based on this data?


La Nina years haven't been associated with a more active N. Atlantic hurricane season, compared to ENSO neutral years, since the mid 90s.
I'm thinkin 90L's done and we may have 91L in the next day or so under the ULL off the VA coastline.....
or even more feasable 90L becoming absorbed by the AOI off the VA/NC coastline...
This is from klfy.com

Earlier this week the president slapped a 6 month moratorium into place for all deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico. The order includes both drilling ships and deep water rigs that are used at the most extreme depths.

There are 33 deep water rigs currently drilling and the majority of them, 11, belong to Transocean the owner of the Deep Water Horizon. Diamond Offshore and Nobel each own 6 and Ensco owns the last two.
From Klfy.com, a local tv station in Lafayette....concerning the moratorium on offshore drilling (not good news)....

"All four are Texas companies located in Houston and stand to lose five million dollars for every day the moratorium continues.But, the collateral damage created by the moratorium is the real story.

Because hundreds of service companies and thousands of their employees are located here in Louisiana, their business and employees will bear the brunt of the shut down."

There are no figures available as to what that may cost in lost work and lost.