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Litte Change to--or Threat From--Atlantic Invests 92L, 93L, and 94L

By: Jeff Masters 3:56 PM GMT on September 10, 2016

An area of low pressure (Invest 92L) with a well-defined surface circulation was located a few hundred miles west of the Florida Keys on Saturday morning. Satellite images and long range radar out of Key West showed that 92L had a well-defined surface circulation center, but the center was completely exposed to view, with almost no heavy thunderstorms—the telltale sign of a storm struggling with dry air and high wind shear. The storm’s heaviest thunderstorms were being kept to the southeast side of the center of circulation by high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots, due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest. The disturbance was also battling plenty of dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite loops, and the 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed the humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was about 60%, which is marginal for tropical storm formation. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were a very warm 30°C (86°F), though.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of 92L.

Forecast for 92L
There is little model support for the development of 92L, with none of the 00Z Saturday operational versions of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models--predicting development. During the next five days, 92L should experience dry mid-level air with a relative humidity of 55 - 65%, and see moderately high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots, as the storm heads west at about 5 mph through the southern Gulf of Mexico, according to the 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model. These conditions are quite marginal for development. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC dropped their 2-day and 5-day development odds to 10%.

Tropical wave 93L just north of Puerto Rico little threat to develop
An area of low pressure (Invest 93L) located about 200 miles north of Puerto Rico on Saturday morning was headed west-northwest at about 15 mph. Satellite images show that 93L continues to have only a limited amount of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of a surface circulation center. The disturbance was battling plenty of dry air, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model showed the humidity at mid-levels of the atmosphere was about 45 - 50%, which is almost always is too dry to support tropical storm formation. Conditions were otherwise favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) a warm 29.5°C (85°F.)


Figure 2. Latest satellite image of 93L.

Forecast for 93L
There is very little model support for the development of 93L, with none of the 00Z Saturday operational versions of our three reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis--the GFS, UKMET and European models--predicting development. The 8 am EDT Saturday run of the SHIPS model predicted that 93L would find a moister surrounding atmosphere by Sunday, but that wind shear would increase to the moderate range. These conditions are quite marginal for development. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%. Invest 93L will continue moving west-northwest to northwest at about 15 mph through Sunday, then slow down to a forward speed of about 10 mph on Monday and Tuesday. This should put the storm near the coast of northern Florida by Tuesday.


Figure 3. Latest satellite image of 94L.

Tropical wave 94L in the central tropical Atlantic likely to develop
A large tropical wave located about 1000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands on Saturday morning (Invest 94L) was headed west-northwest at 10 mph. Satellite images showed that 94L remained well-organized, with a large circulation and an increasing amount of heavy thunderstorms. With wind shear expected to be in the low to moderate range through Monday, along with plenty of warm water and a moist atmosphere with 70% humidity at middle levels of the atmosphere, 94L is likely to develop into a tropical depression by Monday, as predicted by our top three models for hurricane genesis, the UKMET, GFS and European models. In their 8 am EDT Saturday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave this system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 70% and 90%, respectively. The long-range models are showing 94L will likely be a “fish storm”, and take a west-northwesterly then northwesterly track into the Central Atlantic to a location where few storms ever become a threat to the Lesser Antilles Islands or North America. The next name on the Atlantic list of storms is Ian.

Tropical Storm Meranti headed for Taiwan
In the Northwest Pacific, Tropical Storm Meranti is intensifying and is expected to become a major typhoon that will threaten Taiwan by Wednesday. We’ll have more on this storm in future posts.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks dok!
I have a question for you people.
What do you think of the NHC posting Tropical Storm Warning for something that wasn't a Tropical Storm (Hermine)?
I mean I don't really get it, everyone knows what a gale is in the Northeast (at least in New England), and most everyone knows a Storm Warning is worse. So basically I don't get the point, because I don't think people are more threatened by a TS than a gale.
Quoting 2. Methurricanes:

I have a question for you people.
What do you think of the NHC posting Tropical Storm Warning for something that wasn't a Tropical Storm (Hermine)?
I mean I don't really get it, everyone knows what a gale is in the Northeast (at least in New England), and most everyone knows a Storm Warning is worse. So basically I don't get the point, because I don't think people are more threatened by a TS than a gale.


It has to do with what happened with Sandy - it transitioned to an extratropical storm just before landfall. The NHC stopped issuing advisories on it, and received undeserved criticism for doing so - from those folks that don't know any better.

As the NHC explained, as long as it was going to pose a potential threat to the NE, and could impose tropical storm conditions, they would continue issuing advisories on the storm and issue warnings.

Seems as if the NHC is damned if it does, and damned if it doesn't.
looks like from what the models show 93l will start to get going when it reaches the bahamas there we may see a more better looking system stay tuned
Thanks DOC. The new update is only a little more information than last evening, except that 94L has a better chance of development than its two predecessors.
The Dr says 93L off the northern coast of Florida but models have been showing south to central Fl?
Quoting 4. 7544:

looks like from what the models show 93l will start to get going when it reaches the bahamas there we may see a more better looking system stay tuned
somehow i suspect that 94L may miss the trough which is forecast to make it a fish storm.
GFS thinks Ian will be a beautiful category 1/2 fishspinner hurricane that should rack up some ACE.
Fish storms.....SAL....Weak MJO......lack of instability.....ULL's....maybe after Katrina the gov't really is cloud seeding and preventing east coast Cat 5's....where's my empirical evidence ? I have none....just anothe conspiracy theory.....but what is going on with these weaker than usual seasons
Quoting 4. 7544:

looks like from what the models show 93l will start to get going when it reaches the bahamas there we may see a more better looking system stay tuned


Yeah... I think the probability of formation will rise later today. Conditions appear to be improving.
Quoting 6. hurricanewatcher61:

The Dr says 93L off the northern coast of Florida but models have been showing south to central Fl?


Good lord - seriously?

Edit: He did mention the specific run that showed that. Look at that particular run.
According to BAMM, the stronger 93L gets, the father south it will go.

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 4h4 hours ago
Tropical Atlantic will likely quiet down wrt activity second half of September as a suppressed phase of MJO moves in
2016 is the year of naked swirls.Besides Gaston nothing has been really impressive (Alex in January was impressive though).Hermine and Ernesto 2.0 only started to put on a show before landfall.Before people start yapping at the mouth no I'm not asking for category 4 and 5's or asking for destruction.Just a few decent spinners OTS would be really nice but that has been hard to come by these last few years.
Quoting 9. toddbizz:

Fish storms.....SAL....Weak MJO......lack of instability.....ULL's....maybe after Katrina the gov't really is cloud seeding and preventing east coast Cat 5's....where's my empirical evidence ? I have none....just anothe conspiracy theory.....but what is going on with these weaker than usual seasons


Nothing wrong with no one being significantly impacted by a land-falling hurricane . . . . sorry that you are disappointed that more people are not suffering a world of hurt.
At Hurricane season peak, beware of back-loaded storms
Link
18. 7544
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:




if u live in sf watch to see if there are any birds around grother said yesterday he hasnt seen any so if you dont see birds u might be in the target lol
Quoting 12. unknowncomic:

According to BAMM, the stronger 93L gets, the father south it will go.




Yes but how much stronger will it get? Likely not much at all.
Quoting 17. unknowncomic:

At Hurricane season peak, beware of back-loaded storms
Link


Very nice article, and consistent with what was indicated early on . . . . this would be a "homegrown" season that indicated a late fall setup for storms forming in the NW Caribbean/GOM. Let's just hope that fails to pan out as well . . . . for everyone's sake.
Quoting 18. 7544:



if u live in sf watch to see if there are any birds around grother said yesterday he hasnt seen any so if you dont see birds u might be in the target lol


Plenty of birds in my yard...

Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

2016 is the year of naked swirls.Besides Gaston nothing has been really impressive (Alex in January was impressive though).Hermine and Ernesto 2.0 only started to put on a show before landfall.Before people start yapping at the mouth no I'm not asking for category 4 and 5's or asking for destruction.Just a few decent spinners OTS would be really nice but that has been hard to come by these last few years.


The upper structure of the atmosphere is the key to any developing storms. A tropical system needs a lower level circulation but to properly close it's coc it needs all upper layers as well. What I have seen in many past years is the upper levels are constantly being misaligned by upper level lows that create wind shear or dry air. Until the upper levels of our atmosphere relax we will have naked swirls and weak systems.
Quoting 23. frank727:



The upper structure of the atmosphere is the key to any developing storms. A tropical system needs a lower level circulation but to properly close it's coc it needs all upper layers as well. What I have seen in many past years is the upper levels are constantly being misaligned by upper level lows that create wind shear or dry air. Until the upper levels of our atmosphere relax we will have naked swirls and weak systems.
Is this the new norm?
Quoting 24. unknowncomic:

Is this the new norm?

Well, that would take a decade or two to figure out . . .
Got some good heavy storms firing in Houston area from the north and some firing along galveston....whether 92L develops or not looks like a very wet week in store for upper Texas coast. I mentioned "squeeze play" yesterday saying we were gonna get moisture coming from both directions and possibly converging over the area to give us some heavy rain potential. Also that the mosquitoes are getting bigger and meaner. Lol
Quoting 24. unknowncomic:

Is this the new norm?


A upper level low can also aid in development. The surprise factor always exists and a storm can rapidly intensify and catch many complacent people off guard. This has been the new norm for many years on land and sea.
CMC model has 93 coming into east coast florida then traveling NorthWestward up across Florida then into the big bend/panhandle area...so far anyway,too early yet,but in My area I'm preparing for some heavy rains once again whew.
Quoting 28. frank727:



A upper level low can also aid in development. The surprise factor always exists and a storm can rapidly intensify and catch many complacent people off guard. This has been the new norm for many years on land and sea.
yes and That is what I myself am watching out for, this being the peak of season..but hopefully it will be just heavy rain with some wind.
Meranti is looking really well, probably the healthiest looking storm I have seen this year so far.




Quoting 14. washingtonian115:

2016 is the year of naked swirls.Besides Gaston nothing has been really impressive (Alex in January was impressive though).Hermine and Ernesto 2.0 only started to put on a show before landfall.Before people start yapping at the mouth no I'm not asking for category 4 and 5's or asking for destruction.Just a few decent spinners OTS would be really nice but that has been hard to come by these last few years.


Then look to 94L. Ian is likely going to be a nice OTS hurricane. So that would make 2 with the rest of the season to go.
Quoting 26. kallenjrtx:

Got some good heavy storms firing in Houston area from the north and some firing along galveston....whether 92L develops or not looks like a very wet week in store for upper Texas coast. I mentioned "squeeze play" yesterday saying we were gonna get moisture coming from both directions and possibly converging over the area to give us some heavy rain potential. Also that the mosquitoes are getting bigger and meaner. Lol



Wish I was in an area that was getting some of the rain. It has looked threatening on and off and even have heard thunder but no rain for me so far. Funny you mentioned mosquitoes as I havent see any this year? But I'm okay with that ...you can have them, lol
Greetings everyone! Hope you all are having a super splendid weekend so far. For the past week and a half I decided to take a break as I was feeling pretty burnt out from tracking 99L, which eventually became Hurricane Hermine. Check out my storm chasing video of Hurricane Hermine at Indian Rocks Beach, FL. where the winds gusted up to 78 mph. At about 2:10 in the video is when the peak wind gust occurred. The wind was trying to pull me away from the church in which I attend and I told myself no way am I going out in the middle of the street, especially in the event of debris being flung around. This was very fun and my favorite part was hearing her roar. It was wild and crazy and I would do it all over again if I had the opportunity. This was the strongest storm for us here along the west coast of FL. since the 2004-2005 seasons.

Hurricane Hermine - Indian Rocks Beach, FL. 9-1-16

By Mike Clay, Bay News 9 Chief Meteorologist
Last Updated: Tuesday, September 06, 2016
15
The final report is in on Hermine. In our area, the most extensive damage was from the storm surge along the Nature Coast.

Although, heavy rainfall caused more flooding and strong winds brought down trees and powerlines.

Here are final numbers from several locations.

Storm Surge
Cedar Key 6 feet
Clearwater Beach 3 feet
McKay Bay (Tampa Bay) 2.5 feet
St. Petersburg 2 feet
Port Manatee 2 feet

Peak Wind Gusts
Indian Shores 78 mph
Treasure Island 71 mph
St. Petersburg 63 mph
Clearwater Beach 62 mph
Cedar Key 60 mph
MacDill 55 mph
Cedar Key 54 mph
Sarasota/Bradenton 54 mph
Crystal River 53 mph
Brooksville 53 mph
Anna Maria 52 mph
Tampa 46 mph
St. Pete/Clearwater 47 mph
Lakeland 42 mph
Winter Haven 41 mph
Plant City 40 mph
Inverness 35 mph

Rainfall
Baskin (Pinellas) 20.11
Largo (Pinellas) 16.11
Gulfport (Pinellas) 14.30
Dunedin (Pinellas) 12.93
Lake Worrell (Pasco) 11.04
Seminole (Pinellas) 10.87
Belleaire (Pinellas) 10.58
Holiday (Pasco) 10.22
Clearwater (Pinellas) 10.03
Palmetto (Manatee) 9.82
Longboat Key (Manatee) 9.61
Ellenton (Manatee) 9.46
Sarasota/Bradenton (Manatee) 9.38
Port Richey (Pasco) 9.24
Tampa (Hillsborough) 6.83
Valrico (Hillsborough) 6.77
Sun City Center (Hillsborough) 6.55
Wesley Chapel (Pasco) 6.55
93L should not cause worries yet as it is ingesting a load of dry air. However, its small size would allow for it to intensify faster than a larger storm, if and when, the surrounding conditions improve.
Quoting 33. justmehouston:




Wish I was in an area that was getting some of the rain. It has looked threatening on and off and even have heard thunder but no rain for me so far. Funny you mentioned mosquitoes as I havent see any this year? But I'm okay with that ...you can have them, lol
luckily in sugar land area they have been good about spraying so they haven't been too crazy considering all the rain we have had this year.
Quoting 22. GeoffreyWPB:



Plenty of birds in my yard...





I think you're getting a little Tippi, Geoff.

Now I know where all our birds are. But I did see this, this morning.

Peak of the season and these are the cards dealt, oh well. Don't bore us 94L!
39. 7544
Quoting 37. Grothar:




I think you're getting a little Tippi, Geoff.

Now I know where all our birds are. But I did see this, this morning.




thats a good sign lol
Hey Caleb! Great video! Was wondering where ya been. I'm glad you're ok. And yes, that roar is a sound like no other. :)
Quoting 31. NoobDave:

Meranti is looking really well, probably the healthiest looking storm I have seen this year so far.







Very nice, cloud tops very cold. Should see some sinking air in the middle of that soon.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles has been moving slowly toward the
west-northwest. The circulation appears to be better defined today,
but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly
organized. Conditions are still very favorable for a tropical
depression to form by Sunday or Monday while this disturbance moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola remains disorganized. There are no signs of a
surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive
for significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf
of Mexico is devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are
not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken
further while it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.
Dry air and shear.......dry air and shear.

I thought the end of El Nino meant the end to the dry air and shear?
Quoting 16. Sfloridacat5:




I've been watching storms long enough to know when a 5 day looks like this, FL is safe from any storm.
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.

12 in a row without a major? Seriously? Tell that to the families of the crew of El Faro.
Re: 93L.......The air is pretty moist......the shear is pretty low.......the water is pretty warm......we are at the peak of hurricane season.......and yet, we have a circulation completely void of any shower activity completely exposed. WTH is going on here!!!!
9 ft. storm surge in Cedar Key from hurricane hermine. a lot of damage downtown and on dock street.
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over

You must leave sporting events at half-time i presume. :)
52. SLU
10/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.4W TOO WEAK ??? 94L
10/1145 UTC 13.1N 44.9W T1.0/1.5 94L
10/0545 UTC 12.7N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 94L
Fish :(
Quoting 52. SLU:

10/1745 UTC 13.5N 45.4W TOO WEAK ??? 94L
10/1145 UTC 13.1N 44.9W T1.0/1.5 94L
10/0545 UTC 12.7N 44.6W T1.5/1.5 94L


Hopefully being too weak will take it to the Lesser Antilles lol
MJO forecast is depressing.
56. SLU
Quoting 53. CaribBoy:

Fish :(


There's still lots of time to go but i'm disappointed (only from an entertainment value standpoint before people start yapping about me wanting a landfalling category 5 hurricane) that given the increase in moisture, low shear, cool-biased neutral ENSO, boiling hot SSTs and high AMO that the Atlantic still can't seem to get it up.

57. SLU
Quoting 54. CaribBoy:



Hopefully being too weak will take it to the Lesser Antilles lol


lol. highly unlikely.
that almost perpendicular track from 45W initialised by the models for 94L does not seem realistic. i am wondering if they were looking a stronger system. They system is moving so slow i would not be too surprise if it were to miss the trough that was to take it OTS
59. SLU
Quoting 58. stoormfury:

that almost perpendicular track from 45W initialised by the models for 94L does not seem realistic. i am wondering if they were looking a stronger system. They system is moving so slow i would not be too surprise if it were to miss the trough that was to take it OTS

Nahhh it's headed OTS. This system won't affect the islands. Nor will the next wave. :(
Quoting 58. stoormfury:

that almost perpendicular track from 45W initialised by the models for 94L does not seem realistic. i am wondering if they were looking a stronger system. They system is moving so slow i would not be too surprise if it were to miss the trough that was to take it OTS
Actually it appears to be moving due west, no signs of a WNW track, too weak to feel the ULL, I guess. ..I
Quoting 51. SPShaw:


You must leave sporting events at half-time i presume. :)


Lol...
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.


If the season is over then why do you bother to come on this site?
I have been thinking what if we have seen a reversal of the ocean currents in the Atlantic Basin, one in which has led to warm surface waters from the Gulf Stream traveling along the North Atlantic and towards Europe, meanwhile the colder deeper currents circulating down the coast of Africa and traveling along the MDR. Dry air, wind shear, and the SAL have always been a part of the Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. I know the seasons in the 70s and 80s were quiet and the 30s, 40s and 50s were active and the 00s, 10s, and 20s were quiet. I feel like this lends credit to the multi-decadel cycles we have seen. It wouldn't be at all a surprise to me if we have indeed enter a quiet cycle. I think by the year 2020 we will have known for sure. Now I'm not saying we won't get major hurricanes because even in the quiet seasons we do, but they probably won't be as prevalent as from 1995-2012.
Quoting 47. E46Pilot:



I've been watching storms long enough to know when a 5 day looks like this, FL is safe from any storm.


Given the number of invests/Naked Swirls have traversed the straights, I think there's a pretty good chance that the ridge builds further towards the west and directs 93L through the Straights or South Florida. It looks to me like the ridge is sliding to the West South West on Water Vapor Imagery, and the ULL to the NW of 92L is slowly moving towards the S and W. It also looks to me like the COC as well as 850mb, 700mb, and 500mb vorticity is southwest of the forecast track.
66. IDTH
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.

Help4u, more like Complain2u.
67. 92L
A season that began with so much promise has been destroyed by SAL, Shear, ULLs. Is there any hope of turning this thing around?
according to the models 94L should be moving wnw by now and seems to be still moving west..It remains weak i can remember couple early model runs showed the system having 2 separate lows..One went west the other north west
Quoting 67. 92L:

A season that began with so much promise has been destroyed by SAL, Shear, ULLs. Is there any hope of turning this thing around?


You do realize that to date the season is above average to date.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles has been moving slowly toward the
west-northwest. The circulation appears to be better defined today,
but the thunderstorm activity near the center remains poorly
organized. Conditions are still very favorable for a tropical
depression to form by Sunday or Monday while this disturbance moves
toward the west-northwest or northwest over the central Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Puerto Rico
and Hispaniola remains disorganized. There are no signs of a
surface circulation, and conditions are not expected to be conducive
for significant development of this system while it moves generally
west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

An area of low pressure located over the extreme southeastern Gulf
of Mexico is devoid of thunderstorm activity. Upper-level winds are
not favorable for development, and the low is forecast to weaken
further while it moves westward across the central Gulf of Mexico
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

$$
Forecaster Avila
Their username is 92L so that tells me that they are here to start trouble.Let's see if I can be amused for a bit before hitting the magical button.
Figured out how to get my rain ...
Go to the grocery store without an umbrella! Worked wonders
Really felt good too!
Loving the overcast, rumbly, wet day ...Peanut, not so much ..he's hiding
Quoting 57. SLU:



lol. highly unlikely.


So sad :(
74. SLU
At 1800 UTC, 10 September 2016, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL94) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 13.6°N and 45.6°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 9 kt at a bearing of 295 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.
75. SLU
OTS

76. SLU
Poor 93L. With dry air on both sides it may not survive.
80. LBAR
NHC has named worse-looking swirls than 92L. I wonder why they didn't name this one.
Quoting 80. LBAR:

NHC has named worse-looking swirls than 92L. I wonder why they didn't name this one.


Criteria maybe?
Quoting 79. unknowncomic:

Poor 93L. With dry air on both sides it may not survive.



Its going to overcome that dry air in the next few hours. Book it.
Starting to get that look... Thunderstorms are blossoming during D-Min..

Those are good news to life and property.

Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.
93L rapid increase in % this evening possibly? Engine shouldn't be able to get enough juice to overcome the dry conditions, but climate breaks the norms more and more now.
88. vis0
(posted at 0334EDT) Confu [insert] cute Confu kitten [insert] sez, when blob turns into confetti it confuses the over-concentrators. (in the AVN imagery 94L looks like the first time a kid tries to do scrambled eggs)  update, Hermine's soul i mentioned yesterday went instead to the ULL East of Florida. (imgbox host not linking at time of post)

92E/Orlene starting to break loose from the ITCZ south of Mexico.

CPac Invest #2 southwest of Hawaii looks particularly promising right now. The disturbance has plenty of deep convection over very warm SSTs, and is being enhanced by the pull aloft ahead of a large mid Pacific trough anchored over the Aleutians. The only limiting factor may be that it's still too attached to the ITCZ. If it does develop, it would be given the name Ulika.
93L owes its existence to the companion ULL.

Has anyone notice that squall line stretching from Detroit all the way down to Arkansas.
http://s22.postimg.org/y0blbbwo1/screenshot_48.png
courtesy trackthetropics.com
the graphic which is not showing is the number of days left in the Atlantic season 81D 9H and change
Race to formation: Which one will form first? 92E or 94L? Take your guesses!

I predict 92E.
Looks like the site is taking a dump on us again.....
Quoting 84. hydrus:

Starting to get that look... Thunderstorms are blossoming during D-Min..





how ever dos 93L have a surface low and is there any thing falling in the area it may be getting that look but if it dos not have a surface low or if any thing is not falling in the area then its this a open wave right now
I just took a look at the shear maps and I don't see how 93L will not develop or have a chance besides fighting off some mid level dry air. I think it has a good shot.
Quoting 93. hurricanewatcher61:

Has anyone notice that squall line stretching from Detroit all the way down to Arkansas.


It's now all the way down to Texas. Crazy.
Quoting 102. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I just took a look at the shear maps and I don't see how 93L will not develop or have a chance besides fighting off some mid level dry air. I think it has a good shot.


Not enough moisture available for tropical formation. Hopefully.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
450 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

An area of low pressure southwest of the Florida Keys continues to
move to the west southwest with a surface trough extending from
that to the northeast across the South Florida peninsula to east
central Florida. There is a plume of deep moisture extending
across Cuba northeast into South Florida. An upper level low east
of the Georgia coast continues to extend southward into the
Florida Straits.

Forecast for the remainder of the weekend...

The global model consensus regarding the area of low pressure
southwest of the Florida Keys is for gradual movement to the west
southwest into the central Gulf over the next couple of days. In
its wake deep moisture will continue to move northwest across the
region. The aforementioned upper level low could gradually weaken
the remainder of the weekend with a weak upper level ridge over
South Florida later on Sunday. For tonight widely dispersed
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast mainly across the
Atlantic waters and could impact the Atlantic metro areas from
time to time. By Sunday afternoon regional PWAT`s could be right
around two inches with mid-level temperatures basically
climatological, with scattered showers and thunderstorms forecast
with more coverage possible across the northwest interior in the
afternoon and evening hours.

Forecast for Monday through mid-week...

A weak surface trough and associated showers and thunderstorms
currently north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola is forecast to
continue to move to the west northwest the next couple of days.
Later on Monday it could be near the northwest Bahamas with deeper
tropical moisture increasing late Monday. The trough is forecast
to move into east central Florida by Tuesday with deep moisture
lingering possibly through mid-week. Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms, mainly afternoon/evening, are forecast across
the peninsula Monday through Wednesday with scattered activity
across the regional waters.
93L hits 50/70 by 2am update, tomorrow's going back to business as usual here. Is there a surface circulation with 93L? Just to the east of central convection, a spin is visible.
Quoting 64. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I have been thinking what if we have seen a reversal of the ocean currents in the Atlantic Basin, one in which has led to warm surface waters from the Gulf Stream traveling along the North Atlantic and towards Europe, meanwhile the colder deeper currents circulating down the coast of Africa and traveling along the MDR. Dry air, wind shear, and the SAL have always been a part of the Atlantic Hurricane Seasons. I know the seasons in the 70s and 80s were quiet and the 30s, 40s and 50s were active and the 00s, 10s, and 20s were quiet. I feel like this lends credit to the multi-decadel cycles we have seen. It wouldn't be at all a surprise to me if we have indeed enter a quiet cycle. I think by the year 2020 we will have known for sure. Now I'm not saying we won't get major hurricanes because even in the quiet seasons we do, but they probably won't be as prevalent as from 1995-2012.


What happened in the 60's?
AL, 93, 2016091018, , BEST, 0, 216N, 687W, 20, 1016, DB
Funktop satellite view shows the problem with 93L. No towering thunderstorms. Conditions are pulling the cord hard to start the engine, but it's out of gas. Group of towering thunderstorms forms, then it'll be a sign.
dont be fooled by the look of 93L




the low looks like its spin this off the coast of Hispaniola why clould top are getting sheared off too the N
Quoting 93. hurricanewatcher61:

Has anyone notice that squall line stretching from Detroit all the way down to Arkansas.


Derecho?

Quoting 107. DeepSeaRising:

93L hits 50/70 by 2am update, tomorrow's going back to business as usual here. Is there a surface circulation with 93L? Just to the east of central convection, a spin is visible and has new convection firing and growing quickly.

All I know is I do not trust any system sitting above Hispaniola.
fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me
If 94 does not form soon I think it will move more west than N/W.
Quoting 94. birdsrock2016:



Is he a troll?


Absolutely
Oh this will be fun, 80/90
No Derecho, would have to have winds of 75+ along it's path in many places. More typical of backward C formations.
Quoting 101. thetwilightzone:




how ever dos 93L have a surface low and is there any thing falling in the area it may be getting that look but if it dos not have a surface low or if any thing is not falling in the area then its this a open wave right now


You're right, at the moment no surface low, it's definitely still an open wave right now.

Quoting 97. PedleyCA:

http://s22.postimg.org/y0blbbwo1/screenshot_48.png
courtesy trackthetropics.com
the graphic which is not showing is the number of days left in the Atlantic season 81D 9H and change
I saved it and put it into jpeg and uploaded to PB. Tried both image button and typed code and didn't work for me either as a png.


LLC of 92L diving south to link up with the heavy convection over western Cuba!
First hot tower building over LLC with 93L. First sign of life.
Quoting 99. thetwilightzone:



are you a troll?
He reminds me of someone.
94L: can someone tell me what the NHC sees such that they state there is an 80% chance of cyclone dev over next 48 hrs?

To me it looks like it is on a crash course w/ very dry air...and if the predicted track comes to fruition then it runs into the heart of the dry air over the next 72 hours.

U r the astute weather peeps out there, would love the insight from anyone who knows :) thx!

still getting 90's.....

working now.... too funny
Quoting 122. stormpetrol:



LLC of 92L diving south to link up with the heavy convection over western Cuba!


The convection over Cuba appears to be unrelated to 92L and be from daytime heating. I would expect the convection over Cuba to die down in a few hours as the sun goes down.
Quoting 125. jimlovesweather:

94L: can someone tell me what the NHC sees such that they state there is an 80% chance of cyclone dev over next 48 hrs?

To me it looks like it is on a crash course w/ very dry air...and if the predicted track comes to fruition then it runs into the heart of the dry air over the next 72 hours.

U r the astute weather peeps out there, would love the insight from anyone who knows :) thx!


Only one center, closed, just waiting for strong convection over center. Big system, could split. Unlikely though. Very close to classification. LLC and spin are concentrated. Looks huge, but it's one system.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



What happened in the 60's?

JFK
MLK
LBJ
NAM

LUV
LIB
LSD
HAIR
Put a Cabo Verde naked spinner in the Gulf and where does it go? I'm thinking New Orleans. Wouldn't you?
92L is clearly feeding off of Cuban convection. 25 miles east of LLC storms have fired over open Gulf.
Quoting 111. thetwilightzone:

dont be fooled by the look of 93L




the low looks like its spin this off the coast of Hispaniola why clould top are getting sheared off too the N


Looking at the vis loop you can clearly see an outflow boundary late in the loop as thunderstorms suddenly collapse. Dry air is working a number on 93L.
Quoting 127. Sfloridacat5:



The convection over Cuba appears to be unrelated to 92L and be from daytime heating. I would expect the convection over Cuba to die down in a few hours as the sun goes down.


I know, nevertheless, the LLC from 92L is trying to tuck itself underneath it!

Link
it's almost to the G spot..I mean sweet spot...I mean, you know..that area....well you know what I mean.
Funktop showing a tower building over 93L, has developed over the last two hours and has steadily grown. Was zero red before and now a cooling cloud top as it grows.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



What happened in the 60's?



The Beatles.....
NHC may find themselves out to lunch on either 92/93L. Sneaker systems on display this season. Most will not, all it takes is one.
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.


I am so glad I'm at a point in my life where I don't feel the need to cheer for major hurricanes and the destruction they bring at landfall.

BTW you're wrong, there have been several major hurricanes in the past 12 years.
92L trying to pull in moisture from convection over Cuba. It's close to happening, some caught up in LLC spin. Big jog south. Can LLC pull in enough moisture to fire?
Quoting 110. DeepSeaRising:

Funktop satellite view shows the problem with 93L. No towering thunderstorms. Conditions are pulling the cord hard to start the engine, but it's out of gas. Group of towering thunderstorms forms, then it'll be a sign.


Speaking of signs. Look, at the sign post up ahead, you've just crossed over into...

Quoting 114. thetwilightzone:

fool me once shame on you fool me twice shame on me



DoodooDoodooDoodoo (theme music) ......
Quoting 138. weatherwatcher80:



I am so glad I'm at a point in my life where I don't feel the need to cheer for major hurricanes and the destruction they bring at landfall.

BTW you're wrong, there have been several major hurricanes in the past 12 years.
He's trolling.In the span of 12 years we had the 2004,2005,2008,2010,2011 and the 2012 seasons.The 2004 and 2005 seasons alone had 12 U.S hurricane landfalls including some infamous ones at that.Those seasons were by no means "duds".
Very narrow path for development, but it is Sept. 10
Quoting 140. Llamaluvr:



Speaking of signs. Look, at the sign post up ahead, you've just crossed over into...




We have, I believe, a LLC with a towering storm with cooling cloud tops. It's a first indication of. Nothing more. Little window for 93L, conditions towards Florida look unfavorable currently.
Quoting 129. Barefootontherocks:


JFK
MLK
LBJ
NAM

LUV
LIB
LSD
HAIR


Donna, Betsy, Camille...
Quoting 142. washingaway:

Very narrow path for development, but it is Sept. 10



That is one of the most unusual flow patterns over the Gulf that I have seen in a long time.
Can you see it? It's headed right for it.
Quoting 129. Barefootontherocks:


JFK
MLK
LBJ
NAM

LUV
LIB
LSD
HAIR
Quoting 136. KuCommando:




The Beatles.....

Let's not forget about Woodstock - one of the best open-air/mud concerts ever!
94L non impressive
Quoting 44. help4u:

Hurricane season is over another dud season 12 in a row without a major only interesting weather anymore is the huge winter storms and thankfully the tornado seasons have also been way below normal and fire season has been low compared to other years.So I guess quite weather weather can also be extreme to the quite side.
Quoting 94. birdsrock2016:



Is he a troll?


Yes, but one of the more sedate one's. So, we accept him/her for what he/she is. Gotta have the Yang to go with the Ying.
We have a staying LLC fire with 93L. Tower is not building. Moisture content is a big problem. Clearly a center is trying to establish. Tonight will tell a large part of the story.
Yes, some trolls don't live under the bridge; they just push the envelope as far as they can. Notice the trolls fighting tooth and nail to defame the truth of AGW? They are like dust. For the truth was never on their side. And we now see them no more. It was to give false information to mislead the masses, now it's; stay quiet and hope no one speaks on it. Except for accords that have zero teeth. Or has big business given up controlling all business, politicians, world banks, and world leaders?
94L is another replica of the huge waves that have come off the African coast and over hyped by the nhc and their reliable models. 94L looks anaemic and needs some form resuscitation.
Quoting 151. daddyjames:



Yes, but one of the more sedate one's. So, we accept him/her for what he/she is. Gotta have the Yang to go with the Ying.

Yeah, umm he was saying that we have not had a Major yet but umm Gaston
right now the NHC is this making a fool of them self out of 94L

94L is about too move in too vary high wind shear


Whether or not S. FL sees any tropical cyclones in the next week, I can't see how the area avoids torrential rainfall with all this activity around. Considering the ULL moving to the west southwest and the interplay between that entity and 93L, I can see rainfall averages approaching 4" area wide. Like a poster mentions below, this is a weird setup with all these ULLs and vorts crunched together. Kind of looks like a large blocking pattern from the central gulf to Puerto Rico.
Quoting 112. ChillinInTheKeys:



Derecho?


Sure looked like one on the Wilmington OH radar -- the straight line of storms stretched from North of Cleveland to just North of Louisville and about half of the line was pushing severe thunderstorms. Maybe they weren't quite severe enough, or enough of them, to call it a derecho.
We should take 92L and 93L and glue them together, so that we would have a complete storm to track.
I just saw the dumbest thing on the news. There is guy confined to wheel chair that works, but uses a service dog to pull him around the office. The company he works for said he can no longer bring the dog to work. Now there is a lawsuit. Here is the dumb part, during the whole story no one mentioned that guy in the wheelchair could easily be using a motorized wheelchair. Statement from the company doesn't mention it and the story seem to imply that the guy in the wheelchair couldn't get around without the dog. I kept waiting for someone to ask the guy in the wheelchair, why don't you get a motorized wheelchair? Never came up. Kept waiting for the company to say, here is a motorized wheelchair for you so you don't have to bring the dog. Am I missing something?
Quoting 124. Kenfa03:

He reminds me of someone.



i agreed yes he reminds me of JFV
Quoting 160. washingaway:

I just saw the dumbest thing on the news. There is guy confined to wheel chair that works, but uses a service dog to pull him around the office. The company he works for said he can no longer bring the dog to work. Now there is a lawsuit. Here is the dumb part, during the whole story no one mentioned that guy in the wheelchair could easily be using a motorized wheelchair. Statement from the company doesn't mention it and the story seem to imply that the guy in the wheelchair couldn't get around without the dog. I kept waiting for someone to ask the guy in the wheelchair, why don't you get a motorized wheelchair? Never came up. Kept waiting for the company to say, here is a motorized wheelchair for you so you don't have to bring the dog. Am I missing something?

Yes, you are missing something. Why does he need a service dog? Are his arms to weak to push himself around work? Who cleans up the dog poop at work when the dog has to go use the bathroom? What does he do at work if his arms are too weak to turn the wheels? If he is so crippled that he can't push himself in a wheel chair, how does he get in the wheel chair to get to work? How does he get to work to begin with? Does his dog pull him all the way there. Wouldn't that be animal cruelty!!!
Quoting 158. CaneFreeCR:

Sure looked like one on the Wilmington OH radar -- the straight line of storms stretched from North of Cleveland to just North of Louisville and about half of the line was pushing severe thunderstorms. Maybe they weren't quite severe enough, or enough of them, to call it a derecho.


A derecho is an extreme wind event. Causing tens in millions if not billions in damages. Is know by winds of over 75 mph throughout the MCS with winds often between 80-110 mph within MCV's. This is no derecho.
Quoting 108. daddyjames:



What happened in the 60's?

Donna,Cleo,Betsy and Camille off the top of my head. I was just a kid then but it seemed like every summer something was going on.
Quoting 162. DWOilfield:


Yes, you are missing something. Why does he need a service dog? Are his arms to weak to push himself around work? Who cleans up the dog poop at work when the dog has to go use the bathroom? What does he do at work if his arms are too weak to turn the wheels? If he is so crippled that he can't push himself in a wheel chair, how does he get in the wheel chair to get to work? How does he get to work to begin with? Does his dog pull him all the way there. Wouldn't that be animal cruelty!!!


Well I did not mean to plus that, but here - if you wish to read what (I think) was reported by washingaway.

Wheelchair-bound employee told he can't use service dog at work
Marshall Garber was employed at Kennedy Kriege
r

Marshall Garber has been dependent on a wheelchair since being paralyzed by a spinal cord injury six years ago.
. . . .
Last year, after an extensive search, Garber got a dog and trained it to pull his wheelchair.
It proved so helpful, Garber started using the dog at work at Kennedy Krieger -- the east Baltimore institution that specializes in spinal cord injury. At one time, Garber had been a patient.


All honesty, this sounds as if it was a more of a "personal" type of decision rather than a "personnel" type of decision . . . .
By the way, the guy in the wheel chair, according to the report, resigned from his job.
AL, 93, 2016091006, , BEST, 0, 204N, 661W, 20, 1014, DB
AL, 93, 2016091012, , BEST, 0, 210N, 675W, 20, 1015, DB
AL, 93, 2016091018, , BEST, 0, 216N, 687W, 20, 1016, DB
AL, 93, 2016091100, , BEST, 0, 219N, 698W, 20, 1016, DB

But for the grace of God go I. Thank God we're not in that situation of having a motorized or dog pulled wheelchair. At least he has a friend in a cruel world. Or whether we born in the concrete jungles of America, with no dad, mom ignorant and overwhelmed. Young child raised around gang banging, drug dealing, pimping, and violence. First five years are the informative years. And here, Gang is family. Had ANY of us been born here, we would be no different. Compassion, love, truth in understanding. Let's seek that. I speak on this with the authority of having lived and sought after such truths.
169. Ed22
Quoting 148. washingaway:

Can you see it? It's headed right for it.

if that trend continues it could be player in the Gulf.
Why is the Atlantic so hostile??
'Caine season done this year. No nina girl and burning dry air and wind. Peace for this.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
Tropical wave in the east Tropical Atlantic extends along
18W/19W from 9N-20N moving west near 10 kt over the past 12
hours. A weak 1012 mb low is just to the southwest of the wave,
embedded within the monsoon trough, near 10N21W. Wave coincides
with a 700 mb trough based on the global models and is embedded
within a surge of moisture as seen on the Total Precipitable
Water Imagery. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection are from 10N-14N east of 21W to inland over west
Africa.
LLC with 93L is just not flaring. No moisture. No more red on funktop. One hot tower has fizzled and DMAX better be spectacular or 93L may be cooked.
Quoting 148. washingaway:

Can you see it? It's headed right for it.


Could the circulation merge with clouds to the west?

Seems like a lot going on for nothing going on.
Quoting 171. ohzone:

'Caine season done this year. No nina girl and burning dry air and wind. Peace for this.

More floccinaucinihilipilification.
Quoting 169. Ed22:

if that trend continues it could be player in the Gulf.


If that trend continues, it'll be a breezy cloud-free day in the Yucatan.

Looks like 94L is starting to develop a CDO:



We should see TD10 or even TS Ian sometime tomorrow.

New convection has now fired within ten miles of center of 92L. Has been slowing pulling moisture from convection over Cuba for the last two plus hours.
Quoting 173. DeepSeaRising:

LLC with 93L is just not flaring. No moisture. No more red on funktop. One hot tower has fizzled and DMAX better be spectacular or 93L may be cooked.


there is no LLC with 93L - that is the problem.
Quoting 181. daddyjames:



there is no LLC with 93L - that is the problem.


A LLC has been apparent for awhile, just an area that is not conducive for rising air. JMO. A spin and convection associated has been apparent for some time. Storms are firing again, strongest in the last four hours. This could yet materialize. Strongest hot tower in the last six hours is flaring.
Quoting 156. thetwilightzone:

right now the NHC is this making a fool of them self out of 94L

94L is about too move in too vary high wind shear





Anticyclone's over it
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:



A LLC has been apparent for awhile, just an area that is not conducive for rising air. JMO. A spin and convection associated has been apparent for some time. Storms are firing again, strongest in the last four hours. This could yet materialize. Strongest hot tower in the last six hours is flaring.
Quoting 180. DeepSeaRising:

New convection has now fired within ten miles of center of 92L. Has been slowing pulling moisture from convection over Cuba for the last two plus hours.



stop with the over hyped on 92L please
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:



A LLC has been apparent for awhile, just an area that is not conducive for rising air. JMO. A spin and convection associated has been apparent for some time. Storms are firing again, strongest in the last four hours. This could yet materialize. Strongest hot tower in the last six hours is flaring.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 102325
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

...

An area of cloudiness and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola
remains disorganized. There are no signs of a surface circulation,
and conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant
development of this system while it moves generally west-
northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent

(abridged version)
I declare this Blobcon ( -2) pitiful


Quoting 183. Articuno:



Anticyclone's over it


Not quite - what you are showing is shear, not the upper air flow.



On the plus side, convection is starting to develop and wrap around the center. . .

Poor Taiwan sticks out there like a sore thumb and catches many of the big hammer strikes.
Soudelor last August, Nepartak this July, and now, possibly Meranti. It's no wonder most of the population stays away from the East coast of the island.
Convection from off of Cuba has been firing close to 92L. Which has jogged considerably south to be in align with this. 93L has had a persistent convection build over an area of circulation. Highest topped thunderstorms of the day are forming over this area. Not saying they are going to form, just giving an observation of conditions.
Quoting 186. Grothar:

I declare this Blobcon ( -2) pitiful





So, what is the demotion from being a blob to no longer being blob-worthy?
Quoting 170. Gearsts:

Why is the Atlantic so hostile??



whats see its SEP dry air higher wind shear dry has a done and strong cold front oh and yes ULL every where with ULL every where you get high wind shear

Blobcon -2?! Area is moistening, storms are firing, get ready for DMAX and re-numbering of blobcon.
August's AMO value was the 3rd highest on record, succeeded by only 1998 and 2010.

Coupled with below-average shear and above-average instability, it's clear that the Atlantic is sick. And the AMO is not the problem.

Quoting 192. DeepSeaRising:

Blobcon -2?! Area is moistening, storms are firing, get ready for DMAX and re-numbering of blobcon.


At least you are a glass-half-full (optimistic) kinda guy!
Quoting 171. ohzone:

'Caine season done this year. No nina girl and burning dry air and wind. Peace for this.
Don't give up so easily. Still plenty of time, and things change on a dime sometimes.
92L

Quoting 192. DeepSeaRising:

Blobcon -2?! Area is moistening, storms are firing, get ready for DMAX and re-numbering of blobcon.


I only do renumbering between naps.
Quoting 37. Grothar:




I think you're getting a little Tippi, Geoff.

Now I know where all our birds are. But I did see this, this morning.




gro - gotta question. how the heck did that cute little guy get the hat on?
Quoting 197. Grothar:



I only do renumbering between naps.


So on the hour, every hour?
200. vis0
i interrupt this blog for a bit of my weird statements::

If yer following my theory on "2WkAnoms" today you might see sudden shifts as we go from the first ~4 days of this "2WkAnom" into the 2nd grouping of ~4 days. This sudden shifts IF they occur should be more apparent as to the physical dimension within or near the ml-d's AOIs. Back to watch Star Treks 50 Ani.. shows, the Star Trek Pilot is being aired at 10PM EDT Saturday Sept 10th 20-16, out of 33.1 MeTV.

and now back to the regular world.
With the UTMOST respect, Observe nature.
Quoting 195. popartpete:

Don't give up so easily. Still plenty of time, and things change on a dime sometimes.



Under normal circumstances. It is clear that the conditions in the ATL are anywhere but normal.
Quoting 186. Grothar:

I declare this Blobcon ( -2) pitiful





I would call that Blobbegone.
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

August's AMO value was the 3rd highest on record, succeeded by only 1998 and 2010.

Coupled with below-average shear and above-average instability, it's clear that the Atlantic is sick. And the AMO is not the problem.




That's not quite true, vertical instability was well below average during most of August, in part due to a very big dust outbreak from the Sahara at the start of the month:

Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

August's AMO value was the 3rd highest on record, succeeded by only 1998 and 2010.

Coupled with below-average shear and above-average instability, it's clear that the Atlantic is sick. And the AMO is not the problem.




not too worry DOC taz is here too make the Atlantic better and Grothar can be my evil partner and too getter we will make the Atlantic better i will put on a dress and dance around and all them ULL will take one look at me and run way for good and there you have it no more shear and no more dry air


now too give the Atlantic the bill

the bill will coast will be $ 950 billion dollars
Quoting 196. Grothar:

92L




92L is getting scary! It may be a serious problem for SE Texans despite what NHC says!
We made it! - YAAAYYY!.......Everyone out of the car and carry something inside.
Quoting 203. Envoirment:



That's not quite true, vertical instability was well below average during most of August, in part due to a very big dust outbreak from the Sahara at the start of the month:



There's more to the Atlantic than south of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles. :)

Instability has been above average across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. It was average in the Caribbean until last month. We'll revise my statement to near average.
Circulation with 93L has been apparent at 500mbs currently located to the N of the DR. This area of circulation seems to have worked its ways down to 700 and 850mbs and looks as though it is close to aligning. Dry Air has been more of an issue then I originally thought, and I'm gonna withhold judgment on this system post-DMAX. I think this pattern that keeps playing out with Constant T-Waves traversing to the N of Hispaniola and Cuba and through the straights is pretty interesting.

93C erupting from the ITCZ south of Hawaii.
Quoting 186. Grothar:

I declare this Blobcon ( -2) pitiful



Not to worry. It will have a new thunderstorm for D-MAX.
211. beell
Quoting 187. daddyjames:

On the plus side, convection is starting to develop and wrap around the center. . .




94L is a big ole thing.
Quoting 211. beell:



94L is a big ole thing.


that's for sure - have a feeling that that upper portion (to the NE) is going to be flung off soon.
Quoting 207. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There's more to the Atlantic than south of 20N and east of the Lesser Antilles. :)

Instability has been above average across the Gulf of Mexico and off the East Coast. It was average in the Caribbean until last month. We'll revise my statement to near average.


Below average instability in the Caribbean for August:



Subtropics below average instability for August:



There's more to the Atlantic than the East Coast and GOM. :)

From my understanding, active seasons generate most of the activity and ACE in the subtropics/caribbean and tropical Atlantic like 1998 and 2010. So I think it's more than fair to say vertical instability was below average for most of August across a large part of the Atlantic.
214. beell
Quoting 212. daddyjames:



that's for sure - have a feeling that that upper portion (to the NE) is going to be flung off soon.


Maybe not. It may stay together, coalesce, and follow the path the models have laid out. The disturbance must obey...



TD 16E just declared southwest of Mexico.
Quoting 214. beell:



Maybe not. It may stay together, coalesce, and follow the path the models have laid out. The disturbance must obey...





I thought it was the other way around ;)
Quoting 205. pureet1948:



92L is getting scary! It may be a serious problem for SE Texans despite what NHC says!



Why is it getting scary?
218. beell
Quoting 216. daddyjames:



I thought it was the other way around ;)


i forgot the sarcasm thingy.
Quoting 162. DWOilfield:


Yes, you are missing something. Why does he need a service dog? Are his arms to weak to push himself around work? Who cleans up the dog poop at work when the dog has to go use the bathroom? What does he do at work if his arms are too weak to turn the wheels? If he is so crippled that he can't push himself in a wheel chair, how does he get in the wheel chair to get to work? How does he get to work to begin with? Does his dog pull him all the way there. Wouldn't that be animal cruelty!!!

No his arms work fine, he can even drive himself to work. The dude is perfectly capable to operate an electric motorized wheelchair. The point I was making is that no one brought that up.
Quoting 218. beell:



i forgot the sarcasm thingy.


LOL - lord knows we have learned this season that the disturbances don't have to obey anything the models show :D
I'm done with the Atlantic.

Hopefully the october forecast with above average rain in the MDR will materialize though.
222. beell



Jut to be clear-er the closed isohypse at or around 25N 57W in both anomaly charts are a mid-level representation of an ULL. 94L would be somewhere nearby. The small closed isohypse on the GFS may be 94L (a guess). Not the best upper-level conditions.
223. beell
Quoting 222. beell:




Jut to be clear-er the closed isohypse at or around 25N 57W in both anomaly charts are a mid-level representation of an ULL. 94L would be somewhere nearby. The small closed isohypse on the GFS may be 94L (a guess). Not the best upper-level conditions.




You mean that little swirl off to the left of 94L at this level? Maybe that is why the GFS has backed off to a strong tropical storm/cat 1 (maybe 2 eventually) hurricane in the latest runs. Looks as if 94L will be plagued like everything else, with maybe its size giving it an advantage.

Edit: helps if I put in the figure.
225. beell
Quoting 224. daddyjames:





You mean that little swirl off to the left of 94L at this level? Maybe that is why the GFS has backed off to a strong tropical storm/cat 1 (maybe 2 eventually) hurricane in the latest runs. Looks as if 94L will be plagued like everything else, with maybe its size giving it an advantage.

Edit: helps if I put in the figure.


Quoting 225. beell:






They pretty much line up. If not mistaken (I knew which one you were designating as 94L, I was referring to the ULL :P)

Addendum: But did learn a bit more of how to interpret the 500 mb anomaly diagram - as per usual, lesson appreciated.
227. beell
I think we are on the same page, dj.

Although some would look at your 200 mb chart and see a poleward outflow channel. I guess it could tip either way (shear/outflow)

Quoting 128. DeepSeaRising:



Only one center, closed, just waiting for strong convection over center. Big system, could split. Unlikely though. Very close to classification. LLC and spin are concentrated. Looks huge, but it's one system.



Deepsea: Thanks for that.

Yes, I read that it is close to classification but i don't see that it is close to classification. it is about to have a head on collision w/ a dry air mass. Maybe this will be another fighting Fiona but unlikely for the next 48 hrs. I realize the models say one thing but reality seems to dictate something else. We'll see what it looks like when we get up tomorrow.
Quoting 198. daddyjames:



gro - gotta question. how the heck did that cute little guy get the hat on?


It took me about an hour, but if you squeeze them hard enough, they stay still
Quoting 210. unknowncomic:

Not to worry. It will have a new thunderstorm for D-MAX.
Looking like we may have a rainy Sunday in the Bahamas....
Quoting 182. DeepSeaRising:



A LLC has been apparent for awhile, just an area that is not conducive for rising air. JMO. A spin and convection associated has been apparent for some time. Storms are firing again, strongest in the last four hours. This could yet materialize. Strongest hot tower in the last six hours is flaring.


No need for opinion, no low level circulation still, whether by opinion or not https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface /level/orthographic=-76.90,20.29,3000
Quoting 227. beell:

I think we are on the same page, dj.

Although some would look at your 200 mb chart and see a poleward outflow channel. I guess it could tip either way (shear/outflow)




Well, if you go by this, its not looking terribly promising



Although, how much weight can be placed on this? (Are there known biases in the GFS that exaggerates the amount of shear it forecasts in the future?]
Quoting 229. Grothar:



It took me about an hour, but if you squeeze them hard enough, they stay still


how many did you have to go through to find that out?
Quoting 197. Grothar:



I only do renumbering between naps.


You SO jest...you don't look like you need any naps sensai!
235. beell
Quoting 232. daddyjames:



Well, if you go by this, its not looking terribly promising



Although, how much weight can be placed on this? (Are there known biases in the GFS that exaggerates the amount of shear it forecasts in the future?


48 hrs is fairly dependable in the GFS. 120 hrs is starting to get shaky. With only anecdotal evidence to offer, it seems like the upper-level charts for the GFS have struggled this season.
Quoting 230. BahaHurican:

Looking like we may have a rainy Sunday in the Bahamas....
Quoting 230. BahaHurican:

Looking like we may have a rainy Sunday in the Bahamas....
And not much worse here on the East Coast of Florida Tuesday.
Quoting 188. SPShaw:

Poor Taiwan sticks out there like a sore thumb and catches many of the big hammer strikes.
Soudelor last August, Nepartak this July, and now, possibly Meranti. It's no wonder most of the population stays away from the East coast of the island.


Well yeah, but not as bad as the Philippines still!
Quoting 200. vis0:

i interrupt this blog for a bit of my weird statements::

If yer following my theory on "2WkAnoms" today you might see sudden shifts as we go from the first ~4 days of this "2WkAnom" into the 2nd grouping of ~4 days. This sudden shifts IF they occur should be more apparent as to the physical dimension within or near the ml-d's AOIs. Back to watch Star Treks 50 Ani.. shows, the Star Trek Pilot is being aired at 10PM EDT Saturday Sept 10th 20-16, out of 33.1 MeTV.

and now back to the regular world.
With the UTMOST respect, Observe nature.


It's ok Vis0, so many of us love your weird statements :) And if you mention Star Trek, surely add a few more ;)
Possible flareup east of invest. Will the Night Shift please monitor closely!! I expect full report in the AM.

Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

I'm done with the Atlantic.

Hopefully the october forecast with above average rain in the MDR will materialize though.

We need rain here too my friend, no hurricanes wanted, but a strong tropical wave or even a TS would be welcome , the heat is overwhelming !
For the love of god will you both please just *stop*, pureet1948 and CaribBoy. I've been on this blog since Katrina, posting on and off for nine years, and your constant near-hysteria and "whining", respectively, the past season or two, is becoming nearly unbearable. I mean, I could easily put you both on ignore, but a) I've never, ever put anyone on ignore over all these years, as even the least of us here can come up with a true concern or observational gem that no one else has parsed out yet; and b) because others quote you anyway, for some reason finding themselves helpless not to respond to your latest post(s), thus forcing the rest of us to see them, too, whether we want to or not.

If something's definitively heading for Houston, pureet, it will be a major concern for ALL of us here, and days and days out from such a dangerous event actually happening. And CaribBoy... I hope to god you get some major rain there, and soon, yes. But I also hope that for many areas of the Northern-Western Hemisphere.

But in the meantime, will you please just give it a rest. It seems like a third of each blog is filled with both your fears about some impending Allison or Ike disaster for Houston, or the concern that you'll be licking dew off the leaves in the Virgin Islands soon. I know both those things would be awful for many humans on this planet, but at least until it becomes rather totally apparent that such things are odd's-on happening, or about to happen, in your area(s), that you stick to things more based in current reality than they are in simply in fear and worry and the desire for attention.

Harsh from me, maybe... but I've been here for a long, long time, and I think that gives me the right to say what *I'm* feeling, too, about the blog and what appears to be your attempts to just say, "Hey, look at me!" :-(

Jo
Quoting 239. Grothar:

Possible flareup east of invest. Will the Night Shift please monitor closely!! I expect full report in the AM.



12:10am "My pizza was not cooked all the way but I ate it regardless as Invest 93L began to dissolve like my tums."
92L is done for good


the gulf of MX is closed for now


Quoting 201. LemieT:



Under normal circumstances. It is clear that the conditions in the ATL are anywhere but normal.
Whatever is making the Atlantic "sick" has also infected the east coast of Florida...It seems as if it just "can't" rain here. It's like it literally has to work to get a drop of rain from the atmosphere just like what is happening in the Atlantic. The only rain we have had was a very, very small amount from Colin and a bit more from Hermine all summer long which is very unusual here. I don't know what's causing it and I don't know if now, at the peak of hurricane season is a good time to wish for it but, I'll take a chance and wish it away
Quoting 193. TropicalAnalystwx13:

August's AMO value was the 3rd highest on record, succeeded by only 1998 and 2010.

Coupled with below-average shear and above-average instability, it's clear that the Atlantic is sick. And the AMO is not the problem.




And we question.. What was it about 2005 that made it off the charts hyperactive? Could it be favorable conditions like we have this year PLUS this..
"Moist Air
Hurricanes need moist air in the mid-troposphere (5 km or 3 mi altitude). Dry air interferes with the development of the large thunderstorm complexes needed to get a tropical storm going. The air over the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea has been moister than average this year(2005)."

The mid level dry air this past hurricane season has been abominable, running between 40-60%. Maybe the SAL has something to do with this?
Quoting 234. mitthbevnuruodo:



You SO jest...you don't look like you need any naps sensai!


Notice I didn't do a closeup. Watch92L tonight!
Quoting 246. Grothar:



Notice I didn't do a closeup. Watch92L tonight!


92L just hit the wall
Quoting 247. docrod:



92L just hit the wall


I don't know, doc. It looks like a good flareup tonight.
Quoting 241. flibinite:

... I mean, I could easily put you both on ignore, but a) I've never, ever put anyone on ignore over all these years, as even the least of us here can come up with a true concern or observational gem that no one else has parsed out yet
I don't see how refusing to use the exact tool you need to use - just because you don't want to use it - makes a whole lot of sense. With regard to your point (B), whenever I see those I've ignored quoted in the context of someone else's comments it almost always provides positive reinforcement that I was right to put them on my ignore list in the first place.

I think if you start using the ignore list your appeciation of all the really worthwhile information, insights, viewpoints and opinions posted here by so many valuable contributors will increase tremendously. For what it's worth, the two names you mentioned have been near the top of my ignore list for a long, long time. Never regretted it for an instant. You can always remove someone from the list if you change your mind. By not using it you're actively contributing to your own misery because the unfiltered signal-to-noise ratio here is unbearable at times and asking disruptive individuals to police themselves is a losing proposition. At least that's how I find it to be. Your mileage may vary.
Quoting 206. Kowaliga:

We made it! - YAAAYYY!.......Everyone out of the car and carry something inside.



That's right. The peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the tropics are one big mess of garbage. Full of wind shear and dry air with some African dust thrown in for good measure. All's clear, so lets break out the beer.
Quoting 380. GatorWX:

Preevyet.

Imo, should have Ian tomorrow and may be a fun one to watch as it's rounding the high.



92L and 93L should likely be dropped soon, unless conditions become more favorable. Doesn't look like dats gonna happen. 92L concerns me only because of a, still, healthy surface circulation. As long as it can hold on to that, it has a fighting chance, but that chance is increasingly slim, imo. Should soon have Ian though. Night all


From previous blog. I'm late to the scene. 10 and 10 sounds about right for 92 and 93. Still, I'd say watch 92. Doesn't look like conditions will warrent anything, but with a strong low level signature, it wouldn't take much time. Ok, night all
Quoting 164. lat25five:


Donna,Cleo,Betsy and Camille off the top of my head. I was just a kid then but it seemed like every summer something was going on.


And let's not forget Carla, Ethel, Hilda, Dora, Isbel, Alma, Inez, Beulah, and Gladys. All notable storms from the swinging 1960s, a very active decade for Hurricanes.
Quoting 243. thetwilightzone:

92L is done for good


the gulf of MX is closed for now





Anybody know the link for this graph?
Quoting 253. HurriHistory:



Anybody know the link for this graph?



Link



please book mark has i will not repet my self
Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:




Link



please book mark has i will not repet my self


Thank's a lot. I book marked it so you won't have to repeat yourself. Thanks a bunch a munch of Fredos, Corn Chips. ( a tv commercial slogan from the 1960s)
Quoting 254. thetwilightzone:




Link



please book mark has i will not repet my self


Please, bookmark, as I will not repeat myself.

Sorry :)
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK EAST TO WEST ORIENTED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THERE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BECOMING REINFORCED THROUGH MID WEEK BY ANOTHER RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF A DISSIPATING FRONT INLAND OVER
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAINLY
GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF BASIN
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN WESTWARD THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH FRESH SOUTHEAST TO EAST WINDS AS WELL AS SEAS
OF 3 TO 4 FT IN NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE LOW. DRY AIR IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LOW TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THEIR
FORECAST FOR THIS TROUGH...KEEPING IT NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF UNDER THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHWESTERN
GULF WILL EXIT THE BASIN TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAY CLIP THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUESDAY

From Marine Wx Discussion
I found a new rain gauge for you. Enjoy!



Quoting 221. CaribBoy:

I'm done with the Atlantic.

Hopefully the october forecast with above average rain in the MDR will materialize though.
We are standing by!





Quoting 239. Grothar:

Possible flareup east of invest. Will the Night Shift please monitor closely!! I expect full report in the AM.


Quoting 248. Grothar:



I don't know, doc. It looks like a good flareup tonight.


Good eve to you Gro; I'm up too late again for someone who rises and shines at 5am. It looked to me like that flare was due to an interaction with mid level mischief to it's north east in the regular infrared.

At any rate, let us both rest easy, the lion sleeps tonight. Difficult to believe nothing bad has hit the Keys since Wilma.
261. vis0
Quoting 186. Grothar:

I declare this Blobcon ( -2) pitiful
Quoting 202. Bucsboltsfan:



I would call that Blobbegone.
----Blobdroop, blobsklacker, blobdecay, blobebb or blobblah
262. vis0
Quoting 37. Grothar:




I think you're getting a little Tippi, Geoff.

Now I know where all our birds are. But I did see this, this morning.

 ImgLand.net image

same img Grothar uploaded i do this 1] saves img hosting viewing limits 2] raises odds img will stl be viewed 10 yrs from now.
Quoting 198. daddyjames:



gro - gotta question. how the heck did that cute little guy get the hat on?
Loses Freq Flier  Km if bird goes in first class...as to its hat? i'm trying to figure whats in the suitcase!
Quoting 252. HurriHistory:



And let's not forget Carla, Ethel, Hilda, Dora, Isbel, Alma, Inez, Beulah, and Gladys. All notable storms from the swinging 1960s, a very active decade for Hurricanes.
Thats because the Government, is controlling the weather now...
Quoting 250. HurriHistory:



That's right. The peak of the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season and the tropics are one big mess of garbage. Full of wind shear and dry air with some African dust thrown in for good measure. All's clear, so lets break out the beer .Get used to this every year now.......
266. vis0
o 700 UTC hour report on 92L a third flare-up since dusk yesterday. This latest flareup has 2 points a NE area "largest" and a SE flareup both close to the LLC.

next update from me at o 800 UTC, ovr-out
267. vis0
Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..




since its a slow AM i'l entertain this cmmnt.
1] Gov need not add chems non caring business are doing that for over 3 generations and now you notice?
2] leave? i hear there a great deal a a suitcase (w/ matching hat!) only used once by a little 'ol bird from the SE.
3] it ain't the gov controlling its a chubby 'ol nu yorican, taking up where Tesla left off.
Quoting 264. carla961:

Thats because the Government, is controlling the weather now...



If you are referring to the Canadian Government then I agree 100%.
Good luck on getting out of perhaps the messiest rabbit hole on the net.
270. vis0
image host

*(not shwng those inside predictions HQ)
271. vis0
courtesy of Colorado State University.
  • Alex (13Jan-15Jan, 75kts, 981mb)
  • Bonnie (27May-5Jun, 40kts, 1008mb)
  • Colin (5Jun-7Jun, 55kts, 996mb)
  • Danielle (20Jun-21Jun, 40kts, 1007mb)
  • Earl (2Aug-6Aug, 70kts, 979mb )
  • Fiona (17Aug-23Aug, 45kts, 1004mb)
  • Gaston (22Aug-3Sep, 105kts, 956mb)
  • Hermine (28Aug-3Sep, 70kts, 982mb)
272. vis0
CREDIT:: Colorado State
Product:: EXPERIMENTAL Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product
image host
What your saying sounds very odd, please provide proof the US government has the power to stop storm formation.

Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..






Go figure......................... :\
willy wonkie 2016 atlantic tropical season continues. second half is here.

Quoting 274. wilburo33:

What your saying sounds very odd, please provide proof the US government has the power to stop storm formation.



Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..  The way the government is you wont find out if they did until 10 years from now.



Quoting 278. pingon:




How come when I look at this I feel like I am watching the begining of a NASCAR race where they all start their engines?
Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..




Good thing we don't have any states that border the Pacific Ocean.

Carla, how do you explain the hurricane that just hit Florida?

How do you explain Sandy and Irene?

The people who are telling you this nonsense aren't credible. Don't believe everything you read on the internet.
Remembering September 11, 2001

There Are No Words - 15th Anniversary of 9/11

United States Air Force

Published on Sep 8, 2016

"There Are No Words" Dedicated to those who not only lost their lives that day, but those who have paid the ultimate sacrifice for freedom ever since. The United States Air Force Band's Celtic Aire presents a song by Kitty Donohoe, who gave us permission to use her beautiful tribute. The video shares the experience of a couple explaining the events of 9/11 to their children, during visits to all three memorials (Flight 93 Memorial, National 9/11 Pentagon Memorial, and National September 11 Memorial & Museum)

Quoting 277. victoria780:








Im sure this was meant to be presented as a theory rather than fact.
I'm just going to take a stab at the weather manipulation topic that keeps surfacing here recently. It would not shock me that they could still be attempting minor small scale experiments. The main issue I have with it not being larger that basically "could we possibly pump more rain out of storms in this given location over ten years" Is where on Earth would they get the money to do that. You are always having Presidents changing, seats of power changing ect, it would be much to difficult to keep it so set up, especially if you need other countries help. Then look at Japan with their early Earthquake Warning System. Yet, they keep getting blasted by Typhoons and floods recently. If a country were to advance to a point like that it would be them actually. (then someone comes up behind me with crooked eyes "but you forgot that this is clearly revenge for ww2 Obviously! I mean 2011 tsunami.") I turn to them and slam door. I just don't think anything more that cloud seeding is possible right now, even that is a stretch.
Quoting 260. docrod:



Good eve to you Gro; I'm up too late again for someone who rises and shines at 5am. It looked to me like that flare was due to an interaction with mid level mischief to it's north east in the regular infrared.

At any rate, let us both rest easy, the lion sleeps tonight. Difficult to believe nothing bad has hit the Keys since Wilma.
Nothing really bad has hit the Keys since Donna, Wilma had a little surge, but not 145mph winds, and large surge.
Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..

If this keeps up for another 10yrs or so, I might believe you, on some type of weather modification. It would be really nice, because I then could drop my windstorm coverage.
Finally some rain heading towards Eastern New England. Sure it might come with a 60-70mph wind gust or two but I will take this. For such a dry year there were already two storms in July that knocked down a total of three trees in my yard. Funny how that works. And yes I was outside for both of them dodging branches. -do as I say, not as I do in regards to severe wx-
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 286. NativeSun:

Nothing really bad has hit the Keys since Donna, Wilma had a little surge, but not 145mph winds, and large surge.

LOL!!! Sure, whatever you say.
Images from Wilma in Key West( I lived there at the time):





Peak season and there's shear everywhere and no tropical systems worth noting (maybe other than 94L)

Seems to be a theme
If nothing else, this season and the seasons recently past illustrate how extraordinary the conditions were in 2004 and 2005. I used to get fired up every time the water got to 80 degrees or above and there was even a little spin somewhere. It takes a lot more than that...
Quoting 285. George1938:

I'm just going to take a stab at the weather manipulation topic that keeps surfacing here recently. It would not shock me that they could still be attempting minor small scale experiments. The main issue I have with it not being larger that basically "could we possibly pump more rain out of storms in this given location over ten years" Is where on Earth would they get the money to do that. You are always having Presidents changing, seats of power changing ect, it would be much to difficult to keep it so set up, especially if you need other countries help. Then look at Japan with their early Earthquake Warning System. Yet, they keep getting blasted by Typhoons and floods recently. If a country were to advance to a point like that it would be them actually. (then someone comes up behind me with crooked eyes "but you forgot that this is clearly revenge for ww2 Obviously! I mean 2011 tsunami.") I turn to them and slam door. I just don't think anything more that cloud seeding is possible right now, even that is a stretch.


Here's the father of weather manipulation, Physicist David Keith, saying it's relatively cheap to implement.

https://www.ted.com/talks/david_keith_s_surprisin g_ideas_on_climate_change?language=en
Finally some rain here in Vermont! WOOOHOOOO!

0.19 inches according to my weather station. Not enough to make a dent in the pond, but good to finally get some moisture
93 looks decent on vis. the invest is further north than the last two 99 and 92
Quoting 274. wilburo33:

What your saying sounds very odd, please provide proof the US government has the power to stop storm formation.



Please take the time to go through all this before you snub your nose, my scientist friends.

http://dutchsinse.com/want-to-know-about-weather- modification-haarp-vlf-hf-and-chemtrails-want-to-p rove-it-to-a-non-believer-here-you-go/
Quoting 294. islander101010:

93 looks decent on vis. the invest is further north than the last two 99 and 92


297. SLU
Quoting 241. flibinite:

For the love of god will you both please just *stop*, pureet1948 and CaribBoy. I've been on this blog since Katrina, posting on and off for nine years, and your constant near-hysteria and "whining", respectively, the past season or two, is becoming nearly unbearable. I mean, I could easily put you both on ignore, but a) I've never, ever put anyone on ignore over all these years, as even the least of us here can come up with a true concern or observational gem that no one else has parsed out yet; and b) because others quote you anyway, for some reason finding themselves helpless not to respond to your latest post(s), thus forcing the rest of us to see them, too, whether we want to or not.

If something's definitively heading for Houston, pureet, it will be a major concern for ALL of us here, and days and days out from such a dangerous event actually happening. And CaribBoy... I hope to god you get some major rain there, and soon, yes. But I also hope that for many areas of the Northern-Western Hemisphere.

But in the meantime, will you please just give it a rest. It seems like a third of each blog is filled with both your fears about some impending Allison or Ike disaster for Houston, or the concern that you'll be licking dew off the leaves in the Virgin Islands soon. I know both those things would be awful for many humans on this planet, but at least until it becomes rather totally apparent that such things are odd's-on happening, or about to happen, in your area(s), that you stick to things more based in current reality than they are in simply in fear and worry and the desire for attention.

Harsh from me, maybe... but I've been here for a long, long time, and I think that gives me the right to say what *I'm* feeling, too, about the blog and what appears to be your attempts to just say, "Hey, look at me!" :-(

Jo


All CaribBoy wants is some rain. If you lived on a tiny island without a dam to store a trillion gallons of water for later use and depended on rainfall to full your underground cistern just to get an evening shower, then you'd probably understand his plight.
Quoting 293. VermontStorms:

Finally some rain here in Vermont! WOOOHOOOO!

0.19 inches according to my weather station. Not enough to make a dent in the pond, but good to finally get some moisture


LOL - are you becoming the NE version of CaribBoy? Just kidding, happy to hear that your received something!



ULL South of La. Coast and Upper High over Yucatan. Nice convergence in between. No home for 92-L.
300. SLU
Quoting 274. wilburo33:

What your saying sounds very odd, please provide proof the US government has the power to stop storm formation.


Quoting 280. islander44:



Good thing we don't have any states that border the Pacific Ocean.

Carla, how do you explain the hurricane that just hit Florida?

How do you explain Sandy and Irene?

The people who are telling you this nonsense aren't credible. Don't believe everything you read on the internet.
Quoting 285. George1938:

I'm just going to take a stab at the weather manipulation topic that keeps surfacing here recently. It would not shock me that they could still be attempting minor small scale experiments. The main issue I have with it not being larger that basically "could we possibly pump more rain out of storms in this given location over ten years" Is where on Earth would they get the money to do that. You are always having Presidents changing, seats of power changing ect, it would be much to difficult to keep it so set up, especially if you need other countries help. Then look at Japan with their early Earthquake Warning System. Yet, they keep getting blasted by Typhoons and floods recently. If a country were to advance to a point like that it would be them actually. (then someone comes up behind me with crooked eyes "but you forgot that this is clearly revenge for ww2 Obviously! I mean 2011 tsunami.") I turn to them and slam door. I just don't think anything more that cloud seeding is possible right now, even that is a stretch.


Looks as natural as night and day, doesn't it?







Quoting 292. LovetoaMuse:



Here's the father of weather manipulation, Physicist David Keith, saying it's relatively cheap to implement.

https://www.ted.com/talks/david_keith_s_surprisin g_ideas_on_climate_change?language=en


At least that idea is more reasonable and less crazy sounding honestly. It's just when people get to HAARP and other things like that I get turned off fairly fast.
27 90+ days in Rochester now, All time Record in 32 (1952), no way we are reaching that, we will probably settle for 4th ever, after 1949 and 1954, with 29.
303. SLU
Quoting 301. George1938:


At least that idea is more reasonable and less crazy sounding honestly. It's just when people get to HAARP and other things like that I get turned off fairly fast.


Not because it turns you off does it mean there isn't come credence to it. The capability of HAARP to heat up the ionosphere and modify the jet stream thus resulting in unusual weather patterns (eg polar vortex, drought, excessive rainfall, steering of hurricanes, etc) is well documented in the US military's own official documents which are deliberately kept out of the public domain. If you are willing to go a couple inches into the rabbit hole and do some research, you will find out a lot of things that will shock you. The days of the general public dismissing everything they find hard to believe as a "conspiracy theory" are over. It's now time to grab the bull by the horns.
Quoting 263. carla961:

I am now convinced the government has been spreading their chemicals in the atmosphere, enough to change the development of storms, and the climate in the area of North America. We will never see another Active Hurricane season in the Atlantic...Why does the Pacific, crank out storm after storm, every season ? This country is now officially Lost... When the Government starts controlling the weather, its time to leave... God is watching you As@ Ho@...Hope you enjoy the 160 degree hell temp, that you all will be experiencing very soon..




I'm pretty sure of that.
How explaining the storms that the US got? economical reasons. If the storms causes destructions, it will permit to create jobs (to rebuild)...
What kind of arms?chemtrails, HAARP. why Hurricane Hunters fly into the storms? not only to know the specificatio ns of the system...Sand dust machine in Africa, why not...
You can think this is non sense, but the Atlantic Ocean is not able to give us since years nice and powerfull storms like Pacific Ocean can do...
Dammit.......and I just washed my car.

Quoting 304. zicoille:



I'm pretty sure of that.
How explaining the storms that the US got? economical reasons. If the storms causes destructions, it will permit to create jobs (to rebuild)...
What kind of arms?chemtrails, HAARP. why Hurricane Hunters fly into the storms? not only to know the specificatio ns of the system...Sand dust machine in Africa, why not...
You can think this is non sense, but the Atlantic Ocean is not able to give us since years nice and powerfull storms like Pacific Ocean can do...



And on top of that the wx over St Barts is boring today. SAL always SAL :\
I am going to echo what many others here have stated.
It is amazing that people latch onto things that have no evidence of any kind to support it, when we have a pressing issue that will affect is affecting us globally and that we do know will is directly impact impacting the weather that we experience.

I await the day that my, yet unborn but certainly hoped for, grandchildren look up at me and say:

WTF? Why did you allow this to continue having an idea of the impacts it would potentially have?

I honestly have no idea how I will reply . . .

Edit: Fixed a few things.
Quoting 289. pingon:


LOL!!! Sure, whatever you say.
Images from Wilma in Key West( I lived there at the time):






We have a house in old town Key West, yes their was a small surge, but could you imagine if there was a surge twice that high with 145mph winds on top of that. All those homes and trees would be gone. Until you experience a major like Donna, or Andrew, you won't have a clue to what it is all about. My parents at the time, had a beautiful ocean front house on Wendly Key, in Islamorada, and when we came back to our house, their was nothing left of the house, except the concrete foundation and steps, also the rental cottages on the property were all gone except for the reinforced concrete walls. Landscape wise, only a few debarked tress were standing. So yes Wilma did some damage, but nothing like a direct hit by a major, and the keys has not been hit by a strong storm since Donna.
Quoting 296. GeoffreyWPB:





93L
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located
near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of
a surface circulation
, and conditions do not appear conducive for
significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

92L
3. A few showers and thunderstorms have re-formed near a weak area of
low pressure located over southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However,
upper-level winds will not be conducive for development of this
system while it moves generally westward across the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Quoting 305. E46Pilot:

Dammit.......and I just washed my car.




They have stopped updating on 93L. This was from last night. If convection continues, I'm sure they will begin updates again.
Quoting 303. SLU:



Not because it turns you off does it mean there isn't come credence to it. The capability of HAARP to heat up the ionosphere and modify the jet stream thus resulting in unusual weather patterns (eg polar vortex, drought, excessive rainfall, steering of hurricanes, etc) is well documented in the US military's own official documents which are deliberately kept out of the public domain. If you are willing to go a couple inches into the rabbit hole and do some research, you will find out a lot of things that will shock you. The days of the general public dismissing everything they find hard to believe as a "conspiracy theory" are over. It's now time to grab the bull by the horns.
Good morning Slu..I researched it a bit, and it is possible in my opinion.
Link

Good morning from St. Thomas

After a very stormy morning yesterday, the sky cleared up and made for a wonderful afternoon for myself and my grandson.

Since the weather is on the quiet side, I just wanted to share where one of my favorite places on earth is with the link above. This is where we go when I tell the blog I'm off to go camping or a day at the beach. If you ever arrive here, either by cruise ship or a vacation, be sure to message me so that I can tell you how to get there without spending max dollars!

Have a great day

Lindy
313. SLU
Quoting 311. hydrus:

Good morning Slu..I researched it a bit, and it is possible in my opinion.


Good morning hydrus

It is very possible indeed.
Quoting 307. daddyjames:

I am going to echo what many others here have stated.
It is amazing that people latch onto things that have no evidence of any kind to support it, when we have a pressing issue that will affect us globally and that we do know will directly impact the weather that we experience.

I await the day that my, yet unborn but certainly hoped for, grandchildren look up at me and say:

WTF? Why did you allow this to continue having an idea of the impacts it would potentially have?
I honestly have no idea how I will reply . . .
Good morning James...Remember, not all of us here on Earth are just standing idly by watching greed and reckless abandon pollute and damage the world. If you do have that discussion, please mention the folks who did their best to stop this from happening.:)
Quoting 312. LindyVirginIslander:

Link

Good morning from St. Thomas

After a very stormy morning yesterday, the sky cleared up and made for a wonderful afternoon for myself and my grandson.

Since the weather is on the quiet side, I just wanted to share where one of my favorite places on earth is with the link above. This is where we go when I tell the blog I'm off to go camping or a day at the beach. If you ever arrive here, either by cruise ship or a vacation, be sure to message me so that I can tell you how to get there without spending max dollars!

Have a great day

Lindy


Lindy,

Thanks for the tip, and if I am ever lucky enough to travel down there, I would definitely give you a heads up to find out about those local places that serve the best food, drinks, and those places that should be avoided (for one reason or another). thanks for the tip, it looks absolutely stunning.

hope that you and the grandbaby had a fantastic day at the beach.
Hydrus, I think you're going to enjoy this. Not only does it have a quote from the American Meteorological Society about
aerosol effects on microstructure and intensity of tropical cyclones, but it goes into details of the deep state.

http://mediapoetry.blogspot.com/2014/12/do-i-have -lilitu-on-u.html
Quoting 314. hydrus:

Good morning James...Remember, not all of us here on Earth are just standing idly by watching greed and reckless abandon pollute and damage the world. If you do have that discussion, please mention the folks who did their best to stop this from happening.:)


I'll try, but each generation has the ability to label the previous generations as they see fit . . . .
History will not be kind to us . . .
Quoting 311. hydrus:

Good morning Slu..I researched it a bit, and it is possible in my opinion.
Then if what you are saying is true, then we are all doomed. Is this the cause of man made global warming, which they are trying to blame on CO2? Are we smart enough to know the consequences of altering the weather? To this I say no, as we are pretty stupid as a race when it comes to a lot of things. Maybe the people in the Caribbean, who are lacking the rain they use to receive form tropical cyclones, would like to have a say on weather alterations, and I am sure if this theory you bring up is true, there are probably a lot of other countries who would like to have a say on this matter. Lets just hope we never try to manipulate the weather, as this will surely end in a catastrophic disaster.
Keeps pulsing on and off with convection..If that continues, it may moisten the region a bit..

Good morning/afternoon to all

I have a completely new understanding for fences in wake of recent flood events across the nation


Remember 9/11
I do know that after the 2004 2005 and 2008 hurricane seasons there was talk about possibly weakening/seeding hurricanes.Now as to whether there was any action taken,well I don't know.It could possibly be a phase the Atlantic is in but everything seems to to be in order except for the shear.We aren't even in in a el nino year yet most of the Atlantic is shut down right now.
They shut down HAARP 2 years ago.


yo,

00z EURO has a TS near Cape Verde in just 72 hours.
JTWC 1500Z update on Meranti:
"DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A TRACK THAT TAKES TY 16W NEAR SOUTHERN TAIWAN IN 60 TO 72 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. GIVEN THAT UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH AMPLE WARM WATER, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 125 KNOTS REACHED AROUND AND AFTER TAU 48, PRIOR TO LANDFALL IN TAIWAN."
Quoting 305. E46Pilot:

Dammit.......and I just washed my car.




No need to worry. Strong upper level winds will probably rip 93L to shreds within the next 24 to 36 hours. It's called wind shear my friends and it's all over the place. That's why we have not had a decent Hurricane threat since Wilma way back in 05. Talkin about Florida, of course.
Quoting 318. NativeSun:

Then if what you are saying is true, then we are all doomed. Is this the cause of man made global warming, which they are trying to blame on is caused by CO2? Are we smart enough to know the consequences of altering the weather? To this I say no, as we are pretty stupid as a race when it comes to a lot of things. Maybe the people in the Caribbean, who are lacking the rain they use to receive form tropical cyclones, would like to have a say on weather alterations, and I am sure if this theory you bring up is true, there are probably a lot of other countries who would like to have a say on this matter. Lets just hope we never try to manipulate the weather, as this will surely end in a catastrophic disaster.


Fixed something for you - can't stand by and let denial continue. Five more years and the climate will have "officially" shifted into - what may become known as - the "initial transition phase".
Quoting 205. pureet1948:



92L is getting scary! It may be a serious problem for SE Texans despite what NHC says!



You haven't heard?!?!?! A mandatory evacuation has been ordered specifically for your house. Get out now!!
A decent Hurricane threat ?
94L...some convection beginning to fire near the center.
Without AbbreviationsWith Abbreviations
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston Texas
657 am CDT sun Sep 11 2016

Aviation...
other than some brief periods of IFR ceilings north of the city
over the next couple of hours, VFR will prevail through the day.
Drier air working in from the north, behind a near stationary
front hugging the coast, will keep this afternoon's skies mainly
clear/few cu with a light north breeze. Closer to the coast, as
temperatures warm into the middle 80s, scattered showers may form
in the vicinity of this stalled boundary. Clear skies and near
calm winds will again increase the chance for lowered ceilings
Monday morning, most likely over more rural coastal hubs. 31

&&

Previous discussion... /issued /

Discussion...
per water vapor satellite imagery, a drying air mass is filtering into
southeast Texas from the north behind yesterday's cold front. Out over
the Gulf of Mexico along and ahead of the front, seeing early morning
scattered shower and thunderstorm development. Mid/upper level low
partly responsible for area rains the last couple of days is moving
from right over our area to just off to our east, and this feature
along with daytime heating could generate some daytime storms mainly
across parts of our far southeast counties and adjacent coastal waters.
A majority of southeast Texas will be rain free both today and tomorrow
as drier air and subsidence dominates the area. Moisture levels begin
to deepen on Tuesday and remain on the high side for the remainder of
the week and on into the weekend resulting in increasing mainly daytime
rain chances. 42

Marine...
a stalled cold front along the coast will maintain a northeast to
east breeze through the day. Widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms will likely develop through the afternoon in the
vicinity of this front. After a brief period of light onshore winds
early Monday, winds will back more east during the day Monday and
will generally remain easterly through Thursday. Lowering southern
Gulf pressure will tighten the easterly gradient, producing near
caution level easterlies late Monday and Tuesday nights. The long
duration easterly fetch will draw up a slightly higher swell through
mid week. Early work week average 1 to 2 foot seas will build to an
average 3 to 4 feet by Wednesday. 31

&&
Quoting 318. NativeSun:

Then if what you are saying is true, then we are all doomed. Is this the cause of man made global warming, which they are trying to blame on CO2? Are we smart enough to know the consequences of altering the weather? To this I say no, as we are pretty stupid as a race when it comes to a lot of things. Maybe the people in the Caribbean, who are lacking the rain they use to receive form tropical cyclones, would like to have a say on weather alterations, and I am sure if this theory you bring up is true, there are probably a lot of other countries who would like to have a say on this matter. Lets just hope we never try to manipulate the weather, as this will surely end in a catastrophic disaster.
I said it was possible, never used the word theory. If the government is altering the weather, they will not advertise it. Speaking of manipulation, almost every time you respond to one of my comments, you twist or add words. Try to at least stick close to what I said, rather than changing the tone of the comment.
Quoting 320. MaxWeather:

Good morning/afternoon to all

I have a completely new understanding for fences in wake of recent flood events across the nation


Remember 9/11
ACOE take notes.
Although the odds for development have slightly decreased, it appears 94L is finally firing convection near its center. We will see if that persists.

93L keeps firing convection, and is close to the Bahamas and the SE US. Something to keep an eye on!

92L is in the GOM. Will it fire up more convection?

We are only halfway through the hurricane season.

Quoting 322. Patrap:

They shut down HAARP 2 years ago.


yo,




or so they say . . . after all, they never admitted to what they were doing there in the first place [sarcasm flag flying at full force]
A Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters.


May it be a wunderful day for you,.....


Go Lions!

maybe all of the North Korea nuclear tests and war worldwide is causing massive wind shear in the mid and upper levels....


j/k

Quoting 335. Stormwatch247:

Although the odds for development have slightly decreased, it appears 94L is finally firing convection near its center. We will see if that persists.

93L keeps firing convection, and is close to the Bahamas and the SE US. Something to keep an eye on!

92L is in the GOM. Will it fire up more convection?

We are only halfway through the hurricane season.


with the current wind shear across the GoM 92L and 93L can fire up convection all they want, but they are just gonna sputter sputter....

try to start the evenrude, it may kick up a little water, but it's not going to turn over and run......
X-93L?

Not Weather Related, but remembering after 15 years.
Tropical wave over Africa near 20E is the one the one to watch. it has quite a robust spin and will come off at a low latitude.
We've done a wonderful job of warming the planet by burning fossil fuels 24/7/365.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 11 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A low pressure system located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands is producing a large area of cloudiness and showers, but
it currently has limited thunderstorm activity near the center of
circulation. However, a tropical depression is still likely to
form later today or on Monday before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. The low is expected to move
northwestward or north-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the
central Atlantic Ocean during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located
near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of
a surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for
significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

3. A few showers and thunderstorms have re-formed near a weak area of
low pressure located over southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However,
upper-level winds will not be conducive for development of this
system while it moves generally westward across the Gulf of Mexico
during the next few days at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

Forecaster Berg
Quoting 336. win1gamegiantsplease:




Orlene?
Quoting 328. daddyjames:



Fixed something for you - can't stand by and let denial continue. Five more years and the climate will have "officially" shifted into - what may become known as - the "initial transition phase".


Or in one year with a volcanic eruption.
Nevermind, win1. Here's Orlene. ( add: I founder.)
co2.earth

August 2016 CO2

402.24 ppm

August 2015

399.00 ppm

♨🚨🚧

Quoting 347. cajunkid:



Or in one year with a volcanic eruption.


Depends. Could put the brakes on things, temporarily of course, like Mt. Pinatubo did.

But if there were an eruption that put enough ash into the atmosphere to actually halt any continued warming, well that would significantly impact our ability to sufficiently feed ourselves for a while.
Quoting 350. daddyjames:



Depends. Could put the brakes on things, temporarily of course, like Mt. Pinatubo did.

But if there were an eruption that put enough ash into the atmosphere to actually halt any continued warming, well that would significantly impact our ability to sufficiently feed ourselves for a while.
yes sure would be a lot of crop failures etc
Quoting 328. daddyjames:



Fixed something for you - can't stand by and let denial continue. Five more years and the climate will have "officially" shifted into - what may become known as - the "initial transition phase".


“The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.”

― Albert Einstein
Quoting 298. daddyjames:



LOL - are you becoming the NE version of CaribBoy? Just kidding, happy to hear that your received something!


Oh, please, NO! LOL, but drought sucks, and getting a little relief is a wonderful thing.
Quoting 308. NativeSun:

We have a house in old town Key West, yes their was a small surge, but could you imagine if there was a surge twice that high with 145mph winds on top of that. All those homes and trees would be gone. Until you experience a major like Donna, or Andrew, you won't have a clue to what it is all about. My parents at the time, had a beautiful ocean front house on Wendly Key, in Islamorada, and when we came back to our house, their was nothing left of the house, except the concrete foundation and steps, also the rental cottages on the property were all gone except for the reinforced concrete walls. Landscape wise, only a few debarked tress were standing. So yes Wilma did some damage, but nothing like a direct hit by a major, and the keys has not been hit by a strong storm since Donna.
Thanks for posting this. Huge, the difference between Donna and Wilma.
Truth is an absolute, much is afoot; most are blissfully unaware and programmed to think just as they have been taught by the mass manipulation protocol that's been in place for a long time in the West. The powers that be are rushing to bring population control down before 2040 are known. We get to nine billion and it's unsustainable. It's unsustainable now. So find out what's really happening with Zika, Robert Gates talking seven country Middle East strategy ending with Iran, Panama Papers, research who owns mass media in America, who runs the World Banks, and seek the truth through diligent research. The truth is out there. It matters. We have been perfectly divided, and we will unite around a galvanizing event soon. Sheep can be led anywhere.
looks like 92L and 93L got droped and 94L is about too run in too 60 to 70kt of shear has it pulls N

Link


looks like the winter time shear zone has set up making thing harder for any thing too pop





hurricane season can some times shut down in SEP we have seen that be for in seasons like in 2009


i do not see any more named storms may be for the rest of SEP we will see how ever


Good Morning Folks; back from my week-long trip to Orlando and just noting the following point before coming back on tomorrow for my regular week participation. Hermine notwithstanding (which impacted me here directly in Tallahassee) it is truly remarkable to see the "struggling" nature of weak storms or waves entering the Caribbean and moving across towards the Greater Antilles, Florida, and the Gulf hampered by dry air and stacking issues that is now going into it's 10th year during the Atlantic seasons.

Seems like the strongest storms the past several seasons are the ones that move North of PR into the Central Atlantic or towards the US East Coast but nothing close to a major in the Caribbean region now for a very long time. Good news for all but a rather perplexing period to which I have no answer.

See Yall Tomorrow:






Quoting 334. Methurricanes:

ACOE take notes.
Quoting 320. MaxWeather:

Good morning/afternoon to all

I have a completely new understanding for fences in wake of recent flood events across the nation


Remember 9/11


The water is causing the wood to expand and it's doing a good job of holding back that water. We had a fence just like that in Oklahoma.
The only issue with those fences is they usually don't hold up very well to high winds.
Quoting 338. Patrap:

A Happy Birthday to Dr. Masters.


May it be a wunderful day for you,.....


Go Lions!


Yessir .. go Lions is right. That kool aid is always good this time of year. Drink up lol
Quoting 357. DeepSeaRising:

Truth is an absolute, much is afoot; most are blissfully unaware and programmed to think just as they have been taught by the mass manipulation protocol that's been in place for a long time in the West. The powers that be are rushing to bring population control down before 2040 are known. We get to nine billion and it's unsustainable. It's unsustainable now. So find out what's really happening with Zika, Robert Gates talking seven country Middle East strategy ending with Iran, Panama Papers, research who owns mass media in America, who runs the World Banks, and seek the truth through diligent research. The truth is out there. It matters. We have been perfectly divided, and we will unite around a galvanizing event soon. Sheep can be led anywhere.

Growth in population (2nd derivative of population relative to time) is declining in almost every country in the world including every single one of the 10 most populous countries in the world (yes, that includes India, Bangladesh, Pakistan). Actual population under current trends will peak at about 10 billion sometime around 2050 and then begin declining. These data are clearly understood by demographers and statisticians, despite your anti-intellectual harangue.

And, to add an editorial point, if you think the world has problems with an expanding population, wait until you see what happens with a shrinking one.
Quoting 341. GeoffreyWPB:

X-93L?





yes ex 93L is right all so ex 92L in the gulf and it wont be too long be for we start talking about ex 94L has it will run in too vary high shear
Quoting 362. LesBonsTemps:


Growth in population (2nd derivative of population relative to time) is declining in almost every country in the world including every single one of the 10 most populous countries in the world (yes, that includes India, Bangladesh, Pakistan). Actual population under current trends will peak at about 10 billion sometime around 2050 and then begin declining. These data are clearly understood by demographers and statisticians, despite your anti-intellectual harangue.

And, to add an editorial point, if you think the world has problems with an expanding population, wait until you see what happens with a shrinking one.


Interesting - could you provide some links?
Unless the current pattern of high windshear, dry air and African dust goes away, then we can probably say over and done, over and out, that's all she wrote, and close the door on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For it being the climatological peak of the hurricane season, things look quite pathetic out in the tropics.
Quoting 362. LesBonsTemps:


Growth in population (2nd derivative of population relative to time) is declining in almost every country in the world including every single one of the 10 most populous countries in the world (yes, that includes India, Bangladesh, Pakistan). Actual population under current trends will peak at about 10 billion sometime around 2050 and then begin declining. These data are clearly understood by demographers and statisticians, despite your anti-intellectual harangue.

And, to add an editorial point, if you think the world has problems with an expanding population, wait until you see what happens with a shrinking one.


The World's population is still growing at a rapid rate. Just today the World's population has increased 119,000 and climbing faster than you can count.
Link
Quoting 363. thetwilightzone:




yes ex 93L is right all so ex 92L in the gulf and it wont be too long be for we start talking about ex 94L has it will run in too vary high shear


Don't write 93L off too quickly, Twi. While there is significant shear along the Florida coast, the conditions currently over 93L are not that unfavorable. It still has a few days.

Shear tendency is expected to drop a little, which could aid in at least a depression forming.



That being said. :)
368. 7544
93 looks a little festive today will it hold on and surprise us hmm
93L is putting on a smile this morning.

I have to admit, I did see a demonstration of a weather machine that controlled wind.



Tropical Storm Orlene.
Quoting 303. SLU:



Not because it turns you off does it mean there isn't come credence to it. The capability of HAARP to heat up the ionosphere and modify the jet stream thus resulting in unusual weather patterns (eg polar vortex, drought, excessive rainfall, steering of hurricanes, etc) is well documented in the US military's own official documents which are deliberately kept out of the public domain. If you are willing to go a couple inches into the rabbit hole and do some research, you will find out a lot of things that will shock you. The days of the general public dismissing everything they find hard to believe as a "conspiracy theory" are over. It's now time to grab the bull by the horns.


The most beautiful things about conspiracy theorists is any evidence to dismiss your conspiracy is part of the conspiracy. After all, conspiracy is just an alternative explanation for an event, the difference between conspiracy and a valid explanation, however, is credibility. Conspiracists have none and deserve to be ridiculed. It undermines science, it devalues how knowledge is created, and causes society to mistrust experts in their field. Grab that bull all you want, your still just talking crap. This is also a great example of Dunning-Kruger.

374. 7544
Quoting 370. Grothar:

93L is putting on a smile this morning.




nice one gro are the birds still hidding lol
Quoting 364. daddyjames:



Interesting - could you provide some links?


Here's one for population growth

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW

The UN also agrees with the 10 billion by 2050 but says the actual decline won't take place until the end of the century at a total of about 11 billion, which I disagree with.

To continue with the editorial, even a cursory study of history shows that the greatest advancements and the greatest happiness take place during times of population growth, not decline.
Quoting 368. 7544:

93 looks a little festive today will it hold on and surprise us hmm


guys there is no 92L and 93L its they been drop its now called ex 92L and ex 93L
Quoting 366. Sfloridacat5:



The World's population is still growing at a rapid rate. Just today the World's population has increased 119,000 and climbing faster than you can count.
Link

I don't deny a fast growth rate. But the rate of growth is declining and is actually declining quite rapidly. We doubled twice in about 40 years, or about a quadrupling in 80 years. We will never even come close to doubling again.
93L....................
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located
near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of
a surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for
significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent
Quoting 373. Naga5000:



The most beautiful things about conspiracy theorists is any evidence to dismiss your conspiracy is part of the conspiracy. After all, conspiracy is just an alternative explanation for an event, the difference between conspiracy and a valid explanation, however, is credibility. Conspiracists have none and deserve to be ridiculed. It undermines science, it devalues how knowledge is created, and causes society to mistrust experts in their field. Grab that bull all you want, your still just talking crap. This is also a great example of Dunning-Kruger.




Whats your explanation for a "credible" liar? There are many.
Quoting 377. LesBonsTemps:


I don't deny a fast growth rate. But the rate of growth is declining and is actually declining quite rapidly. We doubled twice in bout 40 years, or about a quadrupling in 80 years. We will never even come even close to doubling again.
and no one is adding inside the death rate,the amount of deaths inside the war zones I'm guessing.
In regards to what I dropped earlier, every piece of information is easily verifiable. Check it, cross check it, seek it out. This is not conspiracy, this is known and verifiable conspiracy involving darkness in high places.
Quoting 379. K8eCane:



Whats your explanation for a "credible" liar? There are many.


No idea what you are talking about. Im talking scientific research versus conspiracy.
Quoting 374. 7544:



nice one gro are the birds still hidding lol


Not a one. As a matter of fact there haven't been any crickets as of late in Canaima either.
Quoting 378. LargoFl:

93L....................
2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased with a disturbance located
near the southeastern Bahamas. However, there are still no signs of
a surface circulation, and conditions do not appear conducive for
significant development of this disturbance while it moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Heavy rainfall is possible over
portions of the Bahamas today and on Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent




there is no 93L or 92L they been droped

see here the only thing thats up is 94L and that will be gone soon has well has it will be in 70kt of shear

Link
385. beell
Quoting 360. Sfloridacat5:



The water is causing the wood to expand and it's doing a good job of holding back that water. We had a fence just like that in Oklahoma.
The only issue with those fences is they usually don't hold up very well to high winds.


Or it is simply a difference in elevation...

Invest 93C southwest of Hawaii, being sheared/vented by a deep mid Pacific trough north of the islands, and Tropical Storm Orlene southwest of Mexico, possibly undergoing rapid intensification in an area of no wind shear and very warm SSTs.
Quoting 375. LesBonsTemps:



Here's one for populatioin growth

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW

The UN also agrees with the 10 billion by 2050 but says the actual delcine won't take place until the end of the century, which I disagree with.

To continue with the editorial, even a cursory study of history shows that the greatest advancements and the greatest happiness take place during times of population growth, not decline.


There-in lies a fallacy - that any amount growth is always good. Any decent population biologist knows otherwise.

Sustainable growth is good, unsustainable growth leads to a population crash. Then (if the crash does not lead to extinction) wild fluctuations in population size until the population finally stabilizes around that which can be sustained.

I think that the long-term projections that have been made to this point use certain assumptions that may not necessarily be valid over the next half century or so. We are entering a period of rapid change, how that ultimately effects things remains to be seen.

For example, the population estimates - to 2100 - for several countries and cities includes those that very well, based on other probabilistic forecasts, may not be in existence by the end of the century. Not saying these people will necessarily "disappear" but migration, and the negative impacts that will have, are not necessarily being accurately accounted for. Does one think Bangladeshi's will be welcomed with open arms in India - without some sort of potential conflict? Foolish to think not.
Quoting 379. K8eCane:



Whats your explanation for a "credible" liar? There are many.


Disillusonment.
Quoting 380. LargoFl:

and no one is adding inside the death rate,the amount of deaths inside the war zones I'm guessing.


The growth rate takes into account the death rate. The growth rate of population was 2.1% in 1965 and is about 1.2% today and declining (World Bank). If anything, longevity is probably peaking in the western world due to poor health behaviors.

The larger point is that population growth is a type of Ponzi scheme. As long as population is growing - or more specifically the productive part of the population aged about 20-60 - debt can be serviced. For example, China, which is in the sweet spot now, unlike Japan and the West, will soon be forced to import large quantities of cheaper labor because of its one-child policy.
Quoting 382. Naga5000:



No idea what you are talking about. Im talking scientific research versus conspiracy.


Me too
If you want to belive Nasa fake the moon landing, that HAARP was weather modification, vaccines cause autism, or any other conspiracies feel free to, but also realize you will be called the crank that you are. With all the available evidence at your fingertips by way of the internet it is you who dismissed the reasonable and verifiable information in favor of the weird websites and crackpots, not us. Ive spent quite some time in thia end of sociological research and there aint much to see besides science denial and undereducated individuals pretending they are experts relying on silly unverifiable conjectures.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 387. daddyjames:



There-in lies a fallacy - that any amount growth is always good. Any decent population biologist knows otherwise.

Sustainable growth is good, unsustainable growth leads to a population crash. Then (if the crash does not lead to extinction) wild fluctuations in population size until the population finally stabilizes around that which can be sustained.

I think that the long-term projections that have been made to this point use certain assumptions that may not necessarily be valid over the next half century or so. We are entering a period of rapid change, how that ultimately effects things remains to be seen.

For example, the population estimates - to 2100 - for several countries and cities includes those that very well, based on other probabilistic forecasts, may not be in existence by the end of the century. Not saying these people will necessarily "disappear" but migration, and the negative impacts that will have, are not necessarily be accurately accounted for. Does one think Bangladeshi's will be welcomed with open arms in India - without some sort of potential conflict? Foolish to think not.


You twist my points and accuse me of saying things I'm not saying and then add a bunch of non sequiturs that show you don't really have a grasp of the subject. But I'll admit it has only tertiary relationship to the blog (mainly in the realm of long-term climate change) and so I've said enough and will stop, but I know that time will prove me out.
Quoting 390. K8eCane:



Me too


Your question was a non sequitor.
396. 7544
Quoting 391. Grothar:




getting blobish in the bahamas today still might have a chance imo
Quoting 394. LesBonsTemps:


You twist my points and accuse me of saying things I'm not saying and then add a bunch of non sequiturs that show you don't really have a grasp of the subject. But I'll admit it has only tertiary relationship to the blog (mainly in the realm of long-term climate change) and so I've said enough and will stop, but I know that time will prove me out.


Actually LBT - i think we are in agreement - but for vastly different reasons.
I really want to have the heart set to write of 93L. For the most part I am. Then I came across THIS. It is a stacked system residing in low wind shear at the moment. Thankfully it does not have a lot of wiggle room around it. You can compare it to 92L on the left in the Gulf which is not total. I think they will up it to at least 10 or 20% at 2pm.
img src="Image and video hosting by TinyPic">
Quoting 395. Naga5000:



Your question was a non sequitor.


Sometimes we understand that which we choose to.
I am no conspiracy theorist. I am a prophet of God. Watch. We are perfectly divided. We have turned on each other like dogs set loose by their masters. There will be an event on US soil soon, will be carried out by ISIS. After election we will be galvanized to go back to Syria and Iraq. In Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and China financially backing Assad; we will find ourselves in a much larger war. Pentagon wages we win a war with Russia and China over 95% of the time. This is about bringing about NWO, agenda 21 of the UN is ready, World Bank and IMF are ready, and all the pieces are aligned on the chessboard. Faster and faster now, and the sheep walk in sleep. Are you not entertained?!
Quoting 320. MaxWeather:

Good morning/afternoon to all

I have a completely new understanding for fences in wake of recent flood events across the nation


Remember 9/11

Wonder which came first, the fence or the condos?
Quoting 400. DeepSeaRising:

I am no conspiracy theorist. I am a prophet of God. Watch. We are perfectly divided. We have turned on each other like dogs set loose by their masters. There will be an event on US soil soon, will be carried out by ISIS. After election we will be galvanized to go back to Syria and Iraq. In Syria, Russia, Iran, Hezbollah, and China financially backing Assad; we will find ourselves in a much larger war. Pentagon wages we win a war with Russia and China over 95% of the time. This is about bringing about NWO, agenda 21 of the UN is ready, World Bank and IMF are ready, and all the pieces are aligned on the chessboard. Faster and faster now, and the sheep walk in sleep. Are you not entertained?!
I don't sweat that one..I already know who is victorious.
Quoting 392. Naga5000:

If you want to belive Nasa fake the moon landing, that HAARP was weather modification, vaccines cause autism, or any other conspiracies feel free to, but also realize you will be called the crank that you are. With all the available evidence at your fingertips by way of the internet it is you who dismissed the reasonable and verifiable information in favor of the weird websites and crackpots, not us. Ive spent quite some time in thia end of sociological research and there aint much to see besides science denial and undereducated individuals pretending they are experts relying on silly unverifiable conjectures.
I wouldn't go so far as saying vaccines cause autism, but Pertussis vac was a culprit in seizures for one and suspected in other neuro problems in babies and toddlers, as shown in mid-1970s studies. I am not up on the current literature because I don't need to be. I do know sometime between 1982 and 1994 (not sure because I was not involved with Public Health during those years) the Fed decided vaccine providers must document informed consent from parents before vaccine is administered. Before that, no specific information or consent was given to or by a parent.

I know a little about HAARP because I once lived next door to Neil Davis, a writer-physicist and retired professor from UAF (University of Alaska, Fairbanks) who did early HAARP experiments and actually created an artificial (as in manmade) Aurora. No denying HAARP existed then. Where it went from there may be another story. I guess.
Quoting 403. Barefootontherocks:

I wouldn't go so far as saying vaccines cause autism, but Pertussis vac was a culprit in seizures for one and suspected in other neuro problems in babies and toddlers, as shown in mid-1970s studies. I am not up on the current literature because I don't need to be. I do know sometime between 1982 and 1994 (not sure because I was not involved with Public Health during those years) the Fed decided vaccine providers must document informed consent from parents before vaccine is administered. Before that, no specific information or consent was given to a parent.

I know a little about HAARP because I once lived next door to Neil Davis, a writer-physicist and retired professor from UAF (University of Alaska, Fairbanks) who did early HAARP experiments and actually created an artificial (as in manmade) Aurora. No denying HAARP existed then. Where it went from there may be another story. I guess.


On the subject of vaccines and autism, there's definitely two sides to the story. We just recently had a debate on the subject in one of my classes on educating students with disabilities.
Link

Another good resource is the book "Taking Sides, Clashing Views in Special Education" Vol 7

Controversies
Let%u2019s face it, controversy drives TV ratings and web traffic. No one is
interested in hearing about things that work as they should %u2013 and vaccines
are a good example. Vaccines have been a hot topic for the last
decade or so. Unfortunately, rare adverse events and theoretical concerns
tend to make more headlines than the remarkable success story
of vaccinations. These problems are then seized on by vaccine opponents
and spread online through the web like a, well, virus.
So, let%u2019s address this head on. Here are the controversies you might
hear about with vaccines:
I%u2019ve heard that the MMR vaccine might cause
autism. Is this true?
No. Parents also hear that vaccinations cause multiple sclerosis,
diabetes, asthma, and SIDS. None of these are caused by vaccination.

The government operates a safety monitoring system (VAERS, FDA,
CDC) %u2013 watching for any possible adverse effects from vaccines. No
one wants to increase autism rates.
One small case report of only eight patients in 1998 led a research
group to feel that the combination MMR vaccine might cause autism.
7
But don%u2019t try to find the article online because the journal that published
the article later retracted it when a former member of the research
lab revealed that the data reported in the study was fabricated! Twelve
years later, the lead author lost his license to practice medicine in
England and was accused of fraud. The whole thing was a hoax.
Before this came to light, several reputable scientists tried to replicate
the findings of this now discredited researcher. No one ever could %u2013
and now we know why!

Unfortunately, frightened parents chose to skip the MMR vaccine and
measles epidemics occurred both in England and the U.S. as a result
of these unfounded claims.
Bottom line: Don%u2019t base health decisions for your child on one research
study or what the media reports!
Talk to your child%u2019s doctor about any
vaccine safety concerns.
If the MMR vaccine doesn%u2019t cause autism,
why is the diagnosis made around the same time
as the vaccination?
One of the criteria used to make a diagnosis of autism is a language
delay. Because children do not have significant expressive language
under a year of age, doctors have to wait until 15 to 18 months to confirm
a language delay and make the diagnosis. That%u2019s about the same
time as the MMR vaccination, which leads some parents to wonder
about autism and vaccination.


Bottom line: Thimerosal will remain on blogs and anti-vaccine websites
forever, but the preservative does not remain in any of the required
childhood vaccines that YOUR baby will get.
404. Sfloridacat5
7:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2016

Thimerisol, different deal. A form of mercury that was used as a preservative in more than one vaccine. Was causing reactions, as was the horse serum used as a base for some immunizations.
Quoting 405. Barefootontherocks:

404. Sfloridacat5
7:17 PM GMT on September 11, 2016

Thimerisol, different deal. A form of mercury that was used as a preservative in more than one vaccine. Was causing reactions, as was the horse serum used as a base for some immunizations.


Never caused autism. Adverse reactions are not conspiracy.
As for HAARP, conspiracy theorists seem to be unaware of the other 5 ionspheroc research programs worldwide. And have yet to provide the mechanism of weather modification. Its okay though, the lack of understanding is a dead giveaway of cranks.