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Lessons learned from the May 3, 1999 tornado

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:39 PM GMT on March 21, 2007

Storm Warning: The Story of a Killer Tornado, which I reviewed earlier this month, recounts the story of the May 3, 1999 monster F5 tornado that ripped through the southern suburbs of Oklahoma City. In addition to providing an exciting fast-paced narrative of the tornado's rampage, author Nancy Mathis also brings up a number of important lessons learned from this storm, which I detail below. With two strong spring storms capable of trigging tornado outbreaks expected to move through the Midwest U.S. Tuesday and Friday next week, everyone living in Tornado Alley would be wise to pay attention to these lessons learned!


A F-4 tornado rips through Kansas, May 8, 2003. Image credit: wunderphotographer Mike Theiss.

Reasons for the low death toll in the May 3, 1999 tornado
Considering that the May 3, 1999 tornado was the strongest ever measured (302 mph winds), hit a major metropolitan area, and destroyed or damaged over 11,000 buildings, the death toll of 38 was remarkably low. It's worth reviewing the major reasons for the low death toll:

1) National Weather Service Doppler radars. The NWS just completed installation of the new NEXRAD Doppler radars nation-wide in 1998. The NEXRAD radars increased tornado warning time from 5.3 to 9.5 minutes, and roughly doubled the percentage of tornadoes warned for from 30% to 60%. Warning times were as long as 39 minutes for the May 3, 1999 tornado. Mathis notes that the number of tornado deaths in the U.S. was cut in half, to roughly 80 per year, after the NEXRAD radars became operational. It took 20 years for the new radars to get procured, thanks to cost overruns and bureaucratic wrangling. Politicians, NOAA administrators, and private contractors involved during the procurement of the next generation of tornado detection equipment should seek to avoid a similar delay. The procurement process for the NEXRAD radars was a disaster that undoubtedly cost lives.

2) A great warning system. A coordinated warning effort by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, the local NWS office, local media, and Oklahoma local government personel worked brilliantly. The big money and training pumped into tornado preparedness paid big dividends.

3) A tornado-savvy population. Oklahomans are the most tornado-savvy people in the world. They took warnings seriously, and acted on them. A survey of those injured found that the vast majority knew of the warnings and the tornado, but just did not have a proper place for shelter.

4) Luck. The tornado leveled schools that had already dismissed classes for the day, and a shopping mall that had closed earlier. Had the tornado hit several hours earlier, or late at night when its movement could not have been shown on live TV, the death toll could have been as high as 600, according to a NOAA study.

Highway overpasses are the worst place to shelter from a tornado!
Three people died at overpasses during the May 3, 1999 tornado. The presence of the bridge acts to focus the wind, making it stronger under the bridge. Some drivers abandoned their cars on the Interstate under overpasses, blocking traffic and creating a traffic jam where people were trapped when the tornado swept over. If you're caught in your car on the road and choose to abandon the vehicle, pull off the road and seek shelter in a ditch, not under a highway overpass!

Poor home construction contributed to the deaths and injuries
Tornado fatalities were primarily from those in mobile homes, cars, and homes without shelters. The tornado revealed many homes where builders had failed (illegally) to build up to code. Enforcing existing codes and mandating stronger building codes would have reduced the death toll. This, of course, is not popular with the powerful building industry, since better construction costs more.

Tornado forecasting is still in a primitive stage
A day before the May 3 tornado outbreak, the Storm Prediction Center was only forecasting their lowest alert level for severe weather, a "Slight Risk". The computer models were highly scattered in their predictions, and made significant changes with each new run. Nothing about the outbreak was textbook. Most supercell thunderstorms that spawn tornadoes form along a warm or cold front (or a "dryline" where a sharp gradient of moisture is present). However, none of the first few supercells in the May 3 outbreak were near a front or dryline. The classic clash of warm moist Gulf air with cold, dry Canadian air that usually provides the lift needed for supercells was not present. Researchers have a huge amount of work to do before they understand what causes tornadoes like the May 3, 1999 storm.

I'll be back Friday with a new blog.

Jeff Masters

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks DR.Masters!

06Z GFS continues to show some type of maybe hybrid development.



Current Visible satellite of the area.



00Z CMC has 2 areas of development!



Indeed development this time of year is very rare but the GFS has been pretty persistant on some type of sub-tropical or hybrid system developing in this area and moving in a ENE fashion.
Goes to show.The outlook can change a lot faster than the models can predict.May 2nd 1999 the threat was low.May 3rd the Nation was stunned.ALways err on the side of caution.And stay on top of the current trends,instead of flying blissfully along in Model or analysis mode.Especially in the Spring active season.Things can go downhill in a hurry.Expoentially sometimes.
I think the key with this system is the persistence. There is no current spin, but the clouds have persisted in that general area. Now there are 2 models one of which are predictining 2 systems, the likelyness of that seems uneventful but that chance of having one systems seems like good bet. As we get closer to this event we will have a better read on the situation.
Interesting that even the NHC is forcasting development in the next 48-72 hours.With a ridge to its north it wont be going anywere fast.

With the new and improved tornado rating scale, I still hope that researchers continue to deploy Doppler radar and other such tools whenever they can, when they are researching tornadoes. Tornadoes such as the Moore F5, as well as the tornado whose wind record it broke (I think the old record had been ~280 mph), are really in a class by themselves. An EF5 tornado may have a low-end wind speed of 200 mph, but tornadoes like these show that the upper end is far above that. For the sake of research (and for severe weather geeks who salivate over big numbers, let's be honest :D), it would be a shame for these extreme tornadoes to be under-researched and these amazing data points never to be discovered.
Infrared view of area...


Waiting on the 12Z.
That development would just about have to be subtropical. Isn't shear in that area at killing levels? I'll be surprised if this develops. March and April systems are extremely rare.
Indeed very rare and shear is quite high across the area but a sub-tropical or hybrid type system could develope.We'll find if the GFS is full of it trying to develope something this time of year.Could be used as a wake up call that hurricane season is fast approaching.
GS...in your view...i'm seeing west
I agree about the season fast approaching. I will be astonished if there's not an early storm in June or possibly even late May. I doubt La Nina will be a factor until later in the summer, but we are in neutral conditions (just like 2005...) and the Atlantic basin is warm. As this blob shows, systems that would develop during the main season are already popping up. The ingredients are there, minus the shear.
Dropsonde iam leaning toward neutral conditions during the meat of the season.Those cool waters in the pacific continue to rise.Hopefully troffiness is present and kicks everything out to sea. Its all about trofs and ridges with tropical systems.
12Z coming out but it will be about an hour or so before the complete run comes out.
I cannot decide about the strength of the La Nina, or even if it'll "officially" develop. I am only holding off because the models are not in universal consensus that it will happen, and NOAA certainly wasn't predicting an El Nino for 2006 at this point last year (although I don't think we'll revert to El Nino again). The cool water continues to rise but it hasn't reached the surface yet; in fact the surface was cooler at the beginning of the month. However, it's a big pool of water and has the makings of a significant event. If it makes it to the surface intact, it's all about the timing at that point.

What concerns me the most is a 2005 setup: a marginal or hostile Atlantic, but a strong Bermuda high and a warm, low-shear Caribbean and Gulf that allow storms to blow up once they hit it. That part of the ocean never cooled properly. Dust and shear are all that kept storms from developing there last year, despite how Alberto made a valiant effort at it. People talk about the number of storms, well I'm concerned about the meteorological setup and where those storms occur.
Basically i forsee an active season number wise this time around with a weak nina to neutral conditions across the atlantic basin.Perdicting were the bermuda high will park itself this season this early in the game is just not possible but if i had to pick a season with similar tracks we might see iam going to go with 2004 with a strong ridge putting florida at an above average risk of seeing several landfalls.What kind of Steering currents might be in place this season?We could either see a troffiness sending everything out to sea as we saw in 06 or will a strong ridge send systems towards florida and the eastcoast.Alot of questions still yet to be answered and will likely remain that way for atleast for another 2-3 months.In my opinion numbers predicted arent really that important because even a quite season can be deadly as we have seen in several ocations with 1992 being a prime example.It only takes one to ruin lives and haveing 25 systems develope this season is not important as the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.Hopefully the 2007 hurricane season will once again spare our shores.


PS! Use this time wisely and create a hurricane plan for you and your family and know what would you do if your emergency management asked you to evacute and begin trying to get into the mode that in a few months we may once again be faced with the possiblity of a significant event in the united states.Overall my advise get your essentials and dont wait till june1 do it now.Adrian
Anyone seen the 12z NAM. IT looks very interesting with a low devloping and moveing west in the next 84 hrs.

12z NAM
hello whats going on? 90L?
Taz read up in the blog...
Still not to late to take a whack at my 2007 Hurricane Contest!

Hurricane Contest!


now what is that? loooking good too we could see are 1st name storm may be 90L where is this at?

lol
Taz I posted that a little up in the blog....Shear is quite high across this area and even if some type of sub-tropical or Hybrid development took place it would probably be sheared.
ok where is it at any way and where it going it looks good for some in be under so march shear
You can see the shear in the Floter 1 Visible animated imagery. The lower level clouds are being blown west and the upeer level clouds are being blown east.

Visible
it has a eye like a hurricane lol
12Z NAM..Weak in nature but interesting.



the models have been quite consistent about something in this area. Most have moved it ene. need to look at the low level stearing currents. shear will keep development to a minimum. hopefully it will move west and bring fl some much needed rain!!!
care full what you wish for
Interesting to note the NHC is forcasting development in the next 48-72 hours.With a ridge to its north it wont be going anywere fast.

i like to her what dr m has to say about it
At 114 hrs the GFS puts an area of low pressure of 1012mb about 500 miles NNE of Puerto Rico.
Indeed weathersp ive been waiting for the complete run to come out.Movement is off to the NE.


look like the season want to get a sooner start this year
TAZ this event is unlikely to happen but it should be served as a wake up call that hurricane season is approaching.
good day everyone.. does anyone have any ideas on how much hurricane activity we can expect for 2007? quiet like last year or busy like 2004 n 2005?
i think thing could get going has soon has may and has sooon has the wind shear lowers
H23...NAM's crappy for TCs.I don't even look at that for tropical forecasts.
Hank...probably closer to '04 than '05.13-16 named storms.
Pushes of to the NE on the 12Z GFS in a very weak state.


stormhank... Most of the pros that do this like Dr. Grey, TSR, ect, think it will be more active then 2006, but not like 2005. So in the middle I suppose.
poor FL
Thanks kris.. Ive read that the El Nino is dissapating.. so I was thinking that would probably increase number of storms for this season
I'm getting convinced we will see some sort of hybrid development.Last nigh's 00z CMC,GFS,NOGAPS,all were calling for a brief warm core system in the area.
El Nino is dissapating?????? huh????


for give me but El Nino is gone
Kris the 12Z GFS @ about 144 hours has some sort of development pushing of to the NE.Chances of this event occuring aren't that great.
Yes it is Taz.
Perdicting were the bermuda high will park itself this season this early in the game is just not possible but if i had to pick a season with similar tracks we might see iam going to go with 2004 with a strong ridge putting florida at an above average risk of seeing several landfalls.What kind of Steering currents might be in place this season?We could either see a troffiness sending everything out to sea as we saw in 06 or will a strong ridge send systems towards florida and the eastcoast.Alot of questions still yet to be answered and will likely remain that way for atleast for another 2-3 months.In my opinion numbers predicted arent really that important because even a quite season can be deadly as we have seen in several ocations with 1992 being a prime example.It only takes one to ruin lives and haveing 25 systems develope this season is not important as the ones that actually make landfall are the ones that have the greatest impact.Adrian
I've often been called weak in nature but interesting. It's TS Oreodog!
anyone have a reliable model page link? I had puter problems and lost all my model pages
stormhank...FSU Models Page. There are links to other great tropical pages there too.

Stormhank here is a link to my model page.

Adrian's Model Page
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Taz, plesae dont go making comments like that. You, like the rest of us, have no clue what will setup and making comments like 'poor FL' is in very bad taste.
Mind your bussiness Myles.His opinions,his right to post them.
Good I want that... Notice how 6 systems go within 200 miles of my house.

But we do not want a repeat of Ivan and Charlie.
tazzy-poo, no talk of blob-forming or pin-hole eyes til august!! xxooxx jo
i want a hurrican to talk about i want a hurricane to talk give me a hurricane to talk about

i had it of waiting is it may yet?
Excuse me, Kris. I live in FL, and his opinions, please forgive me for being mean, are based on nothing but him wanting to see somebody getting hit by a bunch of hurricanes.
yikes taz, get a dog that will give you something to talk about! jo
I know Myles.I shouldn't have been like that.
lighten up Hmyles, we have time to worry later (and yes, i DO live in Fl) jo
me want a hurricane to talk about any out there i had it of waiting
And I gotta agree,Taz likes seeing people get hit.
HSS...All I did was ask him not to say things like 'poor FL' and 'run for your lives'. I rarely tell Taz what to do, I can only remember one time in the past, but posting things like that serves no use except to scare people.
NO i dont
Guys many of us live in south florida and it indeed has been rough that pass couple of seasons.Myself ive lived in miami all my life 29 years and hurricanes are indeed a way of life down here but its important to keep in mind that we are all here to learn from each other and help one another during difficult times during tropical season.My best advise take advantage of this time now and be ready come june1.Adrian
Taz...you video tape the CNN coverage of storms.Of course you like seeing storms hit.
of course you don't taz, you are just interested in storms and weather like most of us that hang around here, anyone that knows you knows that, you are a kind and gentle guy jo
come on no it been a long long time from the last time we talk about a hurricane and was i wishing a hurricane on any one NO i was this saying that i this want a hurricane that is out to sea looking at the same maps evere is makeing me nuts and i cant take it any more
: weatherboykris hey can i help it ?
i hate this time of year
Taz -- it is spring. The flowers are in bloom, pretty girls are everywhere, the days are warming up. Go outside and smell the flowers and chase the girls -- the fresh air will do you some good.
for get it for get it for get it OK for get that i evere said any thing OK for get it for get it for get it i think you all this take thing way to hard on me when i was this kinding a round when i said poor FL OK i did not mean to say it OK get overe it YOU got it this get overe it
We have no idea what you just said. But you said it with authority.
sorry Taz.
wbk leave taz alone and don't put the rest of us in your boat ("no one understood...") jo
for get it for get it for get it OK for get that i evere said any thing OK for get it for get it for get it i think you all this take thing way to hard on me when i was this kinding a round when i said poor FL OK i did not mean to say it OK get overe it YOU got it this get overe it


this for get about that i said poor FL and thing like that you take thing way out the air lock
1


I love the talk of hurricanes in the morning, sounds like Doc Masters blog.
The Man Who Knew




Storm That Drowned a City homepage

"A slow-moving Category 3 hurricane or larger will flood the city. There will be between 17 and 20 feet of standing water, and New Orleans as we now know it will no longer exist."
Ivor van Heerden, October 29, 2004

For years, Ivor van Heerden, a hurricane expert at Louisiana State University, has seen it coming. Since 2001, he and colleagues have been generating computer models of how a major storm could inundate the region in and around New Orleans. And he and his team sought tenaciouslyat times desperatelyto have their warnings heeded by government officials.

In an interview with NOVA ten months before Katrina, van Heerden expressed some of his worst fears as well as his understanding that the federal government, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency in particular, were finally grasping the need to prepare for a calamity. But in interviews conducted in Katrina's wake, van Heerden's anger at the federal government's response is clear.

Following are excerpts from van Heerden's interviews, both pre- (this page) and post-Katrina (next page).

Before the Flood

Interview conducted October 29, 2004

NOVA: If this regionNew Orleans, the wetlands, and allwere a patient in the hospital, how would you describe them? At what stage are they?

VAN HEERDEN: Close to death.

NOVA: Really? Don't hold back.

VAN HEERDEN: (laughter) Thank you. Louisiana is a terminally ill patient requiring major surgery, a patient that if it was given a new heart and new lungs and a new liver would live. If it isn't, it's going to die. That's the equivalent.
An ominous scenario

NOVA: Walk me through the worst-case scenarioif a hurricane hits New Orleans.

VAN HEERDEN: If we look at the case of a slow-moving Category 3 passing west of the city, the floodwaters push into Lake Pontchartrain, and then they push through some highly industrialized areas. As they pass through these areas, they pick up a lot of chemicals. Remember, the flooding is occurring at the same time as a lot of wind damage, a lot of things breaking and coming apart. So these highly contaminated waters then flow into the city.

Within the city you have about 300,000 people who haven't left. There are about 57,000 families in New Orleans that don't own a motor vehicle. They can't get out. There are numerous homeless folk who can't get out. And then there's the disabled or bedridden. And those are the folk who have the least resources, the least ability to cope with what's going to happen.

While the flooding starts, these people are dealing with the winds pulling buildings apart, trees coming down, whatever. For the first five hours the water rises very slowly. But then it rises very, very rapidly. It rises higher than the average home's roof. So those 300,000 people, most of them, are going to have to leave their homes. They're going to end up hanging on to light poles, trees, trying to swim to high-rise buildings.

Were in essence going to have a refugee camp.

There is the potential for extremely high casualtiespeople not only killed by flying debris, drowning in the soup, but also just imagine, how do we rescue the survivors? Unlike a river flood, it doesn't come up and go down. The water stays. And it stays for months and months and months. How do you rescue all of these people? If there's 200,000 survivors, you get 20,000 out a day, that's 10 days. So how are they going to hang on? You know, this is one of the big nightmares: how do you rescue those survivors? What are they going to need?

They're going to need to be detoxified. And this is Louisianait's 100 degrees Fahrenheit, 100 percent humidity. Putrefaction and fermentation go on very, very rapidly. So those folk are going to be surrounded by the proverbial witches' brew of toxins.

In addition to the folk that have to be rescued, we've got about 700,000 residents who can't come home. They're going to have to be housed in tent cities. When you start pulling groups of people like this into close confinement, the potential of very serious diseases goes up dramatically.

So just imagine, you've got this super, super crowdinghighly, highly stressed folk. They don't have a home. They don't have a job. They don't see any future. They're living in tents. It's hot, humid Louisiana. And now you have the potential of disease.

These are some of the worst-case scenarios. We will have almost a million displaced persons that are going to be totally dependent on the state. We're in essence going to have a refugee camp. And it's going to require a massive operation to try and bring some normality into these people's lives.
Preparing for disaster

NOVA: Is this something that a state can handle? The State of Louisiana?

VAN HEERDEN: No, this is definitely something that requires the full resources of the U.S. government. We are fortunate that the federal government is starting to recognize that this is a serious problem. In July of this year [2004] we had an exercise called the Hurricane Pam exercise, where all the federal agencies got together with state agencies. We did a simulation of what would happen, and then these agencies got together and tried to decide how they would deal with a flooded New Orleans. So there is some recognition now, especially by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, that this is a catastrophe that's right on the horizon.

NOVA: How great is the risk of this happening?

VAN HEERDEN: If we look in the last eight years, we have had two near misses of New Orleans [Hurricane Georges in 1998 and Hurricane Ivan in 2004]. And as the wetlands fall apart, the potential of these hurricanes to do major destruction through storm surges rises and rises and rises. So every year that goes by, the probability of this killer storm occurring increases. Statistics right now would suggest maybe once every seven to eight years we're going to have a near miss.

NOVA: So if there's a chance of a big hurricane and this scenario playing out every seven or eight years, what's the solution? What could be done?

VAN HEERDEN: There are two very important mitigation activities that the federal government has to pursue today. Number one is our wetlands protect us from a surge. Our wetlands and barrier islands are our outer line of defense. We need to restore them. Now, that's in the longer term.

In the shorter term, we can start thinking about how can we reduce the amount of water that flows into Lake Pontchartrain and then floods the city? We need to be really innovative, think outside the box, and in addition we've got to change the way federal government does business. You can't give these sort of projects to the Corps of Engineers and have them mull over it for 20 years before it gets built. We need a group that's independent of the political system, that's well funded, has the right experts advising it, and then gets in and does it.

Every year that goes by, the probability of this killer storm occurring increases.

This is the United States of America. This is the most powerful country in the world. It has unbelievable resources. At, literally, the snap of the President's finger, we can spend $40 billion in Iraq. If we can start rebuilding their infrastructure immediately, we can do the same thing back home. At the snap of the President's finger, perhaps, we could spend the $16-20 billion that's needed to save New Orleans. All it takes is the will to do it.

NOVA: What do you think it takes to create that will? Does it take a catastrophe?

VAN HEERDEN: The unfortunate thing is, it does look like it's going to need a catastrophe in order to mobilize it.
NOVA story Linkie Dinkie..Link
I just read the march 20th outlook from TSR their sayin 17 named storms 9 hurricanes and 4 major .. looks like an active year ahead
Here's a good link to a NOAA study about tornadoes and overpasses. Good if you want to go in-depth on this particular topic.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/papers/overpass.html
Howdy Everyone! Must be about Hurricane Season, the bickering has starting up again!
cant take it no more... need F5 conditions over the entire Atlantic... weather too calm.. to peaceful.. too much shear.. too much sunshine and pretty girls... need blobs and 1000 degree SST.... whaaa whaaaa... cry... (pulling hair out) 300 mph winds 200 feet storm surge... (collapse in heap of desperation..)
Posted By: stormhank at 1:48 PM EDT on March 21, 2007.

I just read the march 20th outlook from TSR their sayin 17 named storms 9 hurricanes and 4 major .. looks like an active year ahead.

That update is old,the new update is april 5th.
for get it for get it for get it OK for get that i evere said any thing OK for get it for get it for get it i think you all this take thing way to hard on me when i was this kinding a round when i said poor FL OK i did not mean to say it OK get overe it YOU got it this get overe it


this for get about that i said poor FL and thing like that you take thing way out the air lock


i did not mean to say it ok
Taz, everything is cool, man.
huh? - no taz .. thats how i feel... but I live inland a good deal... guess thats bad...pretty insensitive of me.... Ok calm weather is nice too... less people get hurt..
dropped
whats this drop it ok
Florida indeed has experienced a couple of active landfalling seasons in 2004-2005 but its nothing compared to how bad times can get like for example the time period from 1941-1950 south florida was hit time after time from all directions,point being i think we have fairly lucky so far and hopefully 2007 wont bring any devastation in florida and any U.S. coastline.Adrian

King took a track similar to Ernesto.What different outcomes.
Hopefully none like a repeat of that '47 'cane... I dont like that path for N.O.
Thankgod for those mountians kris!

Look what Stacy put out at 5:00am that morning which gave me chills.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE COMPLICATED DUE TO POSSIBLE
LAND INTERACTIONS WITH CUBA. IF ERNESTO EMERGES SOONER AND A LITTLE
FARTHER NORTH OFF THE COAST OF CUBA...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE
MORE TIME TO STRENGTHEN OVER VERY WARM SSTS OF 86-88F AND IN A VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS
FORECASTING NEAR-ZERO VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...JUST AS ERNESTO IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA IN 48 HOURS. THESE
CONDITIONS WOULD FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ERNESTO BECOMING A
CATEGORY 2 OR EVEN A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA COAST.
Stacy hypes more than JB.BBL
The NHC is predictining a Cyclone huricane23???? The current structure of the system is ragged and you can see the shear, regardless of system's circular appearance.
Check out the path of this 1947 hurricane.... Why wasnt this one named it was a cat 5 out at sea for almost 30 hrs and it made landfall as a cat 4. Looks suppriseingly like andrew exept it was cat 5 just before it made landfall instead of Andrew hitting the US as a cat 5.



hello
last 1500 miles of that path looks a lot like Andrew
Side by Side comparason...
1947: Unnamed


1992: Andrew
would the may 3dr 1999 tornado be a EF5 has well
Man Hurricanes must love this track!

Great Miami Hurricane of 1926.

Left flagler street nearly under water.
Ah, Flagler Street...passed it twice earlier today...it has changed much since 1926...you can imagine what it looked like then...
Here are a few others...








wow hurricanes most love FL
That last one was the great lake ocachobie (Sry floridans can spell that LOL) hurricane right?
116. V26R
Hello
Spring is finally rearing its head up here in NYC Temps supposed to hit 60 tomorrow
maybe it will melt this damn Ice!
Been a while since I seen the low level clouds spinning around in the Atlantic. I am speaking of the area E of the Bahamas.
118. V26R
Pulse if its the same system I looked at, Its just an Upper Level Low trying to get its act together, but kind of impressive anyway!Link
Hurricanes that move like the 1947 create a greater storm surge because of the east to west movement focusing the surge into the Pontchartrain.

...If the 1947 cane had been as strong and as big as Katrina in the Gulf...!! what then??
Temps supposed to hit 60 tomorrow

60? I think that yesterday should have been the first day of summer... LOL...

Author Nancy Mathis was just on NPR news, along with mets from OK. Pushing to make more storm spotters & get people to get themselves a life saving NOAA radio.
Hello all. Anyone have a La Nina update i Could see?

Thanks
Patrick
peace
Skyepony updates ENSO every Monday in her blog. She always has the latest on La Nina.
I smell Hurricane fever..
Posted By: Trouper415 at 4:43 PM CST on March 21, 2007.

Hello all. Anyone have a La Nina update i Could see?


I do! Here is an anomoly chart. Click to make bigger.



A couple of loops.





CPC Discussion
Nothing spectacular on the 18Z GFS which shows a low developing east of the bahamas and moving rapidly NE and of note it also shows a low developing near panama.Very long range though.

Low near panama moves in N-NE fashion.


I do! Here is an anomoly chart. Click to make bigger.

It looks like the warming trend has reversed, it was probabbly just a normal fluctuation (the MJO causes variations in winds and therefore SSTs).
Oh. According to the commercial I just saw, global warming will be the main topic on Hannity & Colmes. I may tune in just to hear the latest on what global warming deniers say.
As long as neuteral conditions hold on I will be happy. ^_^. I will be not happy with a La Nina on are hands.
Could anyone tell me how to put a self-made JPEG animation on here?

Thank you.
Upload to photo sharing site like photobucket..and post .
,,heres an example
just right click and save the jpeg..and link here too.
Hi there Pat

How's the " off season " going ?.
We are well into our dry time of the year with no rain to speak of since last Nov.
Soon time for the waves again. Hard to believe we are near another season

kman

Just the same ol early, early hype kicking in Kman.Good to see yas..!
Heres a Great Link on the Storm here with THE man..Lotsa interactive stuff too Kman..Link
I have been off the blog since Nov as winter weather is not our bag in the tropics !

Kinda been lurking for a bit recently watching the " la nina " debate heat up with all the predictions for what it might bring.

In the NW Caribbean we have had very brisk dry wind for many weeks and a couple of homes were damaged last Sunday by winds that seemed to come out of nowhere. No rain or anything with it. odd really
138. ryang
Hey Kman!
Alright, thanks a lot Patrap. I use photobucket.
Thats a big debate here...but I concentrate on Impacts and after effects..I have a good article released recently for ya..Wait one.
nice link

ryang

you down in Barbados ?
143. ryang
No Kman,in Canada!
Canada !

My sons were in school in Toronto and there is no place colder than that in Feb except the N pole lol

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Corps caused disaster, report says
State inquiry finds decades of blunders
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
By Bob Marshall

Decades of incompetence and neglect by the Army Corps of Engineers allowed Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to devastate New Orleans, according to a long-awaited report being released today, the state's only official investigation into the causes of the disaster.

In a sweeping indictment of corps stewardship, the report alleges that agency supervisors ignored increases in the threat level for their project, knowingly built levees and floodwalls lower than congressionally mandated, failed to detect or ignored glaring errors during the review process, underestimated the impact of the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet on the city's defenses, and failed to properly maintain the system.

The report, conducted by Team Louisiana at the request of the Department of Transportation and Development, echoes many points made in other probes last year, including that of the Independent Levee Investigation Team, led by the University of California-Berkeley, and the interim report from the corps' own Independent Performance and Evaluation Team. But while those efforts focused largely on technical aspects of the structural failures, the LSU-based Team Louisiana sought to pinpoint the decisions that caused those failures.





"It's one thing to use modern, state-of-the-art computer modeling and determine what happened, and the other teams did a very good job of that," said Ivor van Heerden, a director of the LSU Hurricane Center who led Team Louisiana. "But the only way to really understand if mistakes were made was by relying entirely on using the (engineering) tools the corps would have used -- or should have used -- when they did their designs."

A spokesman for the corps' hurricane protection office in New Orleans said officials there have not yet seen the report and had no comment.

18-month effort

The 10-member investigative team, including seven Louisiana State University engineering and storm researchers and three private sector engineers, spent almost 18 months and $200,000 on the effort, including a $100,000 grant from its major backer, the state Department of Transportation and Development. Among the key findings:

-- By ignoring two increases in the severity of the Standard Project Hurricane -- the model storm the system was designed to thwart -- the corps knowingly failed its 1965 congressional charge to protect the city against "the most severe combination of meteorological conditions reasonably expected."

The original model was based on research through 1959. But the corps did nothing to strengthen the system in response to two increases in the projected strength of the model storm, in 1972 and 1979.

"The standard set by Congress in 1965 was very specific -- 'the most severe threat that could be expected,' " van Heerden said. "Our research shows very clearly that the standard was changed, but the corps just kept going about its business as if nothing happened." Katrina, a Category 3 storm when it made landfall, fell far short of the expectation of the most severe hurricane.

-- In 1985, the head of the project ordered his staff to ignore an official reduction in the elevation of the land they were building on, which meant the corps finished levees and floodwalls it knew were as much as 2 feet lower than claimed. That decision helped turn Katrina from an inconvenience into a catastrophe.

"Had the walls been built as high as called for, the floodwalls in the Lower 9th Ward would have been overtopped for 1.5 hours, but instead water poured over them for 4.5 hours," van Heerden said.






He said the extra three hours resulted in deep trenching on the protected side of the floodwalls, contributing to the collapse that sent a wall of water roaring through the neighborhood, killing more than 100 people and displacing an entire sector of the city.

Below-design walls and levees contributed to many of the more than 50 breaches the system sustained during Katrina, the researchers said.

More findings

-- Applying the corps' own design manuals in use at the time, Team Louisiana found instances where the agency missed glaring engineering mistakes by subcontractors, which led to breaches including those on the 17th Street and London Avenue canals.

In one instance, local firm Eustis Engineering botched a standard engineering formula in deciding that a thin layer of clay at the bottom of the London Avenue Canal could prevent water from seeping into highly porous sands below, the report said. During Katrina, water pushed through the clay, quickly traveling through the sand to the dry-land side of the sheet pilings, weakening the levee and leading to a catastrophic breach. Eustis Engineering has declined to comment in the past on the matter and could not be reached for comment Tuesday.

"Had the corps caught that error -- as it is supposed to -- and required the work to have been done properly, in all likelihood the design would have been changed, which could have prevented this failure," van Heerden said.

"We found several stances where (better) designs were originally proposed -- T-walls instead of I-walls -- and then changed for no apparent reason." -- The corps failed to maintain the parts of the system properly, including keeping pace with subsidence. Moreover, the agency ignored advances in engineering knowledge and technology that could have prevented the flood.

The system "was managed like a circa 1965 flood-control museum," the report reads, pointing out that the corps made no improvements to account for well-known changes in elevations, sea-level rise or even gaps left in the system.

Paul Kemp, who was part of Team Louisiana as an LSU storm modeler, said he was "struck by the fact that the corps showed no sense of mission on this project, even though it was involved with it for more than 40 years.





Instead, the agency showed "absolute adherence" to obsolete standards -- a 1959 model for the Standard Project Hurricane. And yet the corps seemed willing, Kemp said, to make other wholesale changes midstream, such as abandoning a proposal to install floodgates at the canals in the mid-1980s, which might have stopped the Katrina surge that broke through their walls.

"It looked like no one was really in charge," he said.

Calls for 8-29 panel

The report also calls for the state and Congress to hold "8-29 Commissions" for a full investigation of the disaster, passage of a "Katrina Recovery Bill" to ensure coastal restoration and flood protection are fully financed by the federal government, and more transparency on the part of federal and state authorities when discussing flood protection plans.

"Citizens of New Orleans were never told by those with both knowledge and responsibility just how vulnerable they were to flooding, or the public safety compromises made in designing and building structures," the report states
146. ryang
What a coincidence,i'm in Toronto as well!

You got that right....freezing cold!
Pat

It seems that all too often it takes a disaster and hand-wringing before " truth will out "
Many times no one is ever held accountable.

The hall mark of all great disasters is that with a little foresight and attention to detail most were capable of being averted.

I suppose the next big one will be a CAT 5 across some low lying over developed strip like Miami Beach/ Biscayne Bay.God forbid we ever see that
Flag the above comment (you can tell which one).
151. ryang
MP everything is good.

Bye everyone,Kman see you later,will you be on often???
Fine words kman..you wise owl to note that.
well guys I am out of here for now.
It was nice to say hi again after being absent for so long.
Won't be long now before we all get to play forecaster wannabe lmao

gnite all
Nitey to all.Cookies and Daily Show with a Lil Milk ..then snoozing invest!..LOL!
Goodnight guys...
156. 882MB
Goodmorning, Very rainy day here across south florida very beneficial rains!
We need rain too in Puerto Rico!!!
refill~ check the 00Z cmc (scroll right, click fwd)

I got sprinkles this morning:)
Good morning,

Dark clouds over my neighborhood this morning in south florida but things seem to be clearing up slowly.

Ryang, now you know Toronto is not that bad, I lived there for over 25 yrs, its only the wind and the dampness that make it feel like that. You really want to complain, check out our own Plapman..He lives in Manitoba and there it really gets cold...he he he
Here is a question that has been posed this morning, why is San Antonio not included in Tornado Alley...is it because of location, is there a geophysical reason for it not seeing many tornados but alas it does get bad T storms.... Hope you can help answer that one. Thanks guys
And here is the culprit of Frozencanuck' question since I was the one raising it. I live in San Antonio, Texas and this is my wild guess at why we are not part of it:

By logic, I would think that any ondulance in the otherwise flat terrain would create enough turbulance in the physics of a tornado to prevent most formation of them. My guess only.

BTW, Thank you Dr Master's. I have been looking frantically for the tornado pic in the WU archives without success.
New radar HD is absolutely incredible!Look forward on useing this season.Updates every six minutes.


I think the NWS Radars need a major upgrade (AKA) All new Radars. The WSR-88D Radar was built in 1988 thus the 88 in the name. Its been 20 years since they have had a upgrade and technology has improved so much.

BTW I bought the book I was very interested about Dr. Tetsuya Fujita early life.(After he moved to the US he renamed himself Theodore or Ted)
Interesting that the high of the eastcoast has pretty much been parked there all year long so far,might it be a sign of bad things to come?
I'm not quite ready to make my call but, I do agree with you 23.
Gom.ssts
The big Leander tornado just NW of Austin a few years ago struck terrain very similar to San Antonio. It could be SA's more southerly and westerly position, which puts it a bit out of the main conveyor belt of GOM moisture.

SA gets some big bad T-storms in part because of its geography -- it is located on the Balcones Escarpment, an area where the elevations rise several hundred feet in short order. This terrain feature helps cause an upslope effect (small compared to the Rockies), but when the GOM moisture spigot is only 120 -150 miles away as the crow flies, those dew points in the 70's can lead to some juicy atmospheric mixes.
Better Predictions for Hurricanes' Deadly Storm Surges

By Andrea Thompson
LiveScience Staff Writer
posted: 22 March 2007
02:01 pm ET



Furious winds that blow debris and topple trees tend to dominate images of hurricanes on the news, but the powerful walls of seawater these winds push ashore are often the most destructive part of the storms. Theyre also difficult to predict.


But new, more direct measurements of storm surges, detailed in the March 23 issue of Science, could help meteorologists improve forecasts and warnings and thereby reduce the damage wrought by hurricanes.


As a hurricane travels over the ocean, its strong winds push against the waters surface, causing it to pile up higher than the sea's ordinary level. As the hurricane makes landfall, the water is pushed onshore and can quickly wash many miles inland, destroying homes and businesses. This so-called storm surge accounts for the majority of hurricane deaths.


The storm surge from Hurricane Katrina was estimated to have reached heights of 24 to 28 feet along a 20-mile swath of the Gulf Coast and washed up to 12 miles inland, devastating the Mississippi coast.


Storm surge can build for hours as a hurricane approaches, but the bulk of it usually comes as a sudden rush of water that can quickly submerge low-lying coastal areas, washing away cars and trees and flooding buildings.


Storm surge predictions are usually made from estimates of surface wind speeds and turbulence under the hurricane, which tell how much drag (or the amount of push) the wind has on the waterthe more drag, the higher the surge.


But ocean spray and breaking waves can interfere with measurements, making the estimates of drag inaccurate.


Ivan improves measurements


As Hurricane Ivan moved over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico just before making landfall in September 2004, it passed over instruments sitting on the ocean floor belonging to a group of Naval Research Laboratory scientists. Amazingly, the moorings survived the hurricane and provided the scientists with valuable data from the ocean perspective of storm surge.


From measurements of the velocity of the ocean current directly under the hurricane, the scientists found that the energy transfer between wind and water reaches a maximum when a storms wind speeds reach about 72 mph (the speed around which a storm is just beginning to become a hurricane).


So for speeds less than 72 mph, the higher the wind speed, the more drag it created, but above 72 mph, the waves begin to break and cause the hurricane to lose its hold on the ocean surface.


A decreasing drag at high winds seems to be related to the sea spray, foam and bubbles from the breaking seas that would reduce the drag of the hurricane as it prowls over the ocean surface, said study team member William Teague. In effect, it would allow the hurricane to slip over the sea.


This smaller estimate of drag can be fed into computer models for more accurate predictions of storm surge, though other factors are also important for forecasts, Teague said. With more accurate forecasts, meteorologists can better warn coastal residents of the dangers they face from hurricanes, hopefully saving lives.



sounds very interesting!!!
Hey Hurricane23 how's it going. I havent been on in a long while. So any opinions on this years storm activity.
Bonedog? Hey aqua, we have another member of the dog family among us!
Northern GOM near shore SSTs..Link
ClearH2OFla check your mail!
SST potential..Link
60 hour GOM SST forecast animated model..Link
warming up there Pat -- be in the 80's in a month
Last loop looks like a seahorse in the EGOM
Recent Fla & Bahama MODIS image..Link
Looks Like Horsehead Nebula Odog for sure!..
Is nino trying to make a comback after a brief nina tendence?Its unlikely but anything is possible.


Adrian -- don't you need the deviation from normal, not the absolute?
actually..it's doing as the models predicted months ago.....many people chose to discount that though and go with we'd be in La Nina in days....
Just wanted to pass on this new info on the GFS model getting a new upgrade and will be in full service in may.

Ernesto in south florida...




More here on upgrade.
23~ The ESPI went positive 3 weeks ago signaling we'd see this breif reprise from the ENSO plumit. Since then it has gone more negative than any point so far in this ENSO cooling period. Further cooling in the next month would be no suprise to me.
187. Inyo
summer La Nina could actually help southern California out.. it won't increase rainfall but could lead to a cool, foggy summer, which would decrease fire danger.

we actually had a small bit of rain this week but some areas got a half inch, and one isolated mountain station almost an inch. A similar storm will pass by on Tuesday.. we'll see if it does anything.
Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:50 AM PDT on March 22, 2007.

Interesting that the high of the eastcoast has pretty much been parked there all year long so far,might it be a sign of bad things to come?


23 that is the Bermuda High that is parked right off the eastcoast it more W this year and it is stronger has well
Posted By: Tazmanian at 5:10 PM PDT on March 22, 2007.

Posted By: hurricane23 at 8:50 AM PDT on March 22, 2007.

Interesting that the high of the eastcoast has pretty much been parked there all year long so far,might it be a sign of bad things to come?


23 that is the Bermuda High that is parked right off the eastcoast it more W this year and it is stronger has well





ok her we go

ok the high you see that you been see park off the E coast is are Bermuda High i ues my paint to under line wish high is the Bermuda High the one you see in yes is the Bermuda High but the 1028mb high you see that i under line and i put NO is not the Bermuda High and has you can see the Bermuda High is march stronger and more W this year then it was last year i hop this helps

lol

this is bad news come later on
Taz the bermuda high sits over the Atlantic during summer time as you may know and acts as a block that hurricanes cannot penetrate, the size and location of this system can determine where hurricanes go. A normal bermuda high often leads to hurricanes moving up the east coast and out to sea. During 2004 and 2005 , the bermuda high expanded to the south and west, which steered hurricanes into the gulf of mexico rather than up the east coast or curving out to sea. Once in the Gulf,there's no way out but to make landfall somewere.
the bermuda high is park right off the E coast 23
Dr.Masters will write a blog on this sometime in early may.Hopefully it budges cause as i said before this could be a bad sign of things to come as patterns are begining to establish themselves.
i want may i want may
Did I remember correctly that the position of the "Bermuda High" corresponds to the phase of the NAO, or is that backward? It's hard to tell what it will do though. Talk about your "cone of uncertainty":

NAO
Tropical Depression Twelve-F
14.4S 174.7E - 30 knots 998 hPa

moving west-northwest at 2 knots.

Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3 FINAL
=================================
Low level circulation center is exposed and sheared more than 60 nm northwest of deep convection resulting in rapid disintegration.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/S0.0/24 HRS

The potential of TD 12F to develop into a tropical cyclone is downgraded to low.
Hey Hurricane 23 been a while i figure with the season fast approaching id hope back on. Any opinion on whats instore for us floridians
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 2:54 AM GMT on March 23, 2007.

Nice little low to the West of the Keys!


Where?
Maybe the trough to the east??? CMC has been building it nicely, sending it west into SFL with refreshing rains.

Times Picayune

Corps' employees among those making claims
By Sheila Grissett
East Jefferson bureau

The Army Corps of Engineers has faced some mighty challenges since Hurricane Katrina battered its levees, breached its floodwalls and bruised its reputation. While not as dramatic, the latest challenge is unique:

How to respond in the workplace to its employees who filed claims letting them sue the corps for Katrina damage?

The corps employs more than 1,200 people in southeast Louisiana, and Col. Richard Wagenaar, the district commander, estimates that 600 to 700 of them lost their homes or sustained significant property damage due to Katrina flooding. Its not yet known how many of the employees joined thousands of other people who recently filed Standard Form 95 asserting administrative claims for damage; the numbers are still being tallied.

But already corps lawyers and commanders are crafting a new set of regulations for those employees to follow at work even if it means a reassignment of duties until all legal issues are resolved.

The new rules are aimed at eliminating any potential conflict of interest that could result from a corps employee taking legal action alleging negligence in the corps design and construction of the federal hurricane protection system, Wagenaar said.
Conflicts of interest are generally an issue when an individuals personal interest and public duty are at odds, or when an outside observer perceives a conflict regardless whether it exists.

Cases at corps district headquarters on Leake Avenue will be decided individually, based primarily on the specifics of each corps employees normal duties, Wagenaar said.

For example, he said it is unlikely that a security guard or human resources supervisor, would face this dilemma because their duties dont directly involve creation or management of the flood defense system. It is far more likely, he said, that an engineer, a corps attorney or any number of high-level managers would have a hand in financing, designing, building, maintaining the system, or defending it in court.

In most cases, immediate supervisors will apply the new regulations to their staffs. If corps ethics lawyers decide that theres a signficant conflict of interest for senior management, Wagenaar himself will review those cases.

They might be temporarily reassigned, he said. We have very restrictive ethics rules.

In other cases, a corps spokeswoman said, the restrictions might call only for certain adjustments not an all-out job change. A budget analyst, for instance, might be required to leave meetings when the discussion turns to the subject of how to divvy limited money between hurricane protection projects.

Wagenaar said he thinks the new list of dos and donts represents a neutral position that will serve to protect both the ability of the corps to do its job and employees 1st Amendment rights to seek redress of grievances even from the very government agency that issues their paychecks.

We put out a general memo telling employees there was no prohibition against them filing a claim, he said. And now my Office of Counsel is working through a standard operating procedure that lays it all out so empoyees can understand potential restrictions.

The restrictions apply not only to the regular corps workforce in the New Orleans area but also to any contract employees brought in temporarily to help with the post-Katrina work load. We dont want to infringe on employees rights, but we also dont want to impact the districts ability to peform this mission, he said.

In a Feb. 27 in-house e-mail, corps employees were told that there is no prohibition against filing an SF-95 claim against the corps. But they were also told that the corps would need to determine whether filing the claim presents a conflict of interest for the employees position.

Wagenaar said he and others found nothing comparable in corps history to help them fashion the new guidelines. Like much else that has happened in metropolitan New Orleans as a result of Katrina, the need for such guidelines is unqiue.

Were bulding this from scratch, Wagenaar said. There is some precedent for filing (job discrimination) and sexual harassment claims.

But joining a class action lawsuit against the agency? Thats never been done before, he said. Were writing those rules right now.

Sheila Grissett can be reached at sgrissett@timespicayune.com or (504) 717-7700.

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$400 billion in claims agains corps, and that's only half those filed
By Sheila Grissett
East Jefferson bureau

Only halfway through the process, Army Corps of Engineers officials who are examining claim forms filed by tens of thousands of people over Hurricane Katrina flooding estimate the alleged damages have already passed the $400 billion mark.

The demands run the gamut, from damages for the loss of a pet to a $200 billion claim by the state of Louisiana the single largest to surface thus far. In some cases, claims were filed by residents whose property didnt flood but who seek compensation for mental or emotional stress created by multiple breaks in the federal hurricane protection system, corps officials said.

Col. Richard Wagenaar, commander of the corps New Orleans District, said his agency wont identify claimants by name to protect their privacy. But he confirmed that the $400 billion estimate so far doesnt include $78.1 billion of previously announced claims: $77 billion from the city of New Orleans, $655 million from Entergy and $460 million from the New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board.

We havent found any of those claims in the envelopes opened to date, but were probably only maybe 50 percent through them, Wagenaar said this week.

Representatives of the three entities have said they submitted the federal governments Standard Form 95, preserving their right to sue the corps.

A spokeswoman for Attorney General Charles Foti Jr. confirmed Thursday that he signed a state claim for $200 billion in damages that Louisiana officials say they suffered as a result of the corps alleged negligence in the building, design, etc. of the MR-GO and the levee system in general.

Fotis office said the claim is intended not only to provide the federal government notice of potential damage requests, which is required as part of the administrative claims process, but also to give the corps time to investigate the claim and consider settlement before litigation.
The filings of SF-95 began slowly after a Feb. 2 ruling by U.S. District Judge Stanwood Duval that the corps is not automatically immune from lawsuits involving its navigation projects.

Duvals decision breathed new life into a suit filed by WDSU television personality Norman Robinson and two couples who lived in the flooded Lower 9th Ward and St. Bernard Parish. They accuse the corps of negligently building and maintaining the Mississippi River-Gulf Outlet.

The ruling also raised the prospect that new suits would be filed, including a similar challenge involving the corps work on the 17th Street and London Avenue canals.

The trickle of SF-95s roared into a deluge with the approach of the March 1 filing deadline.

In a scene reminiscent of last-minute income tax filers who jam the post office on April 15, roads leading to the corps Leake Avenue district headquarters during the 48 hours preceding the deadline were clogged with drivers seeking to drop off their forms. To help move along the process, supervisors sent shifts of corps employees to stand alongside the streets and hold U.S. mail bins from the agencys mail room, fulfilling a requirement that the forms be treated and safeguarded as U.S. mail.

In some cases, motorists asked to borrow corps employees pens to fill out the two-page forms on the spot. Examining the forms these days, corps employees said they occasionally find one bearing only a signature, perhaps a testament to the haste with which documents were submitted. In one instance just before the filing deadline, a motorist thrust a blank form from a vehicle window, saying her attorney told her to be sure to get it filed before March 1, said a corps employee who asked not to be identified.

Wagenaar estimates it will take two to three more weeks to complete inspecting and tallying all the claims. He said the paperwork is enough to fill an 8-by-10-foot room.

Sheila Grissett can be reached at sgrissett@timespicayune.com or (504)717-7700.
205. V26R
That looks like a Boomer (Mesoscale)complex thats dieing out Sorry CB
GOES-12 Atlantic view..Low Cloud channel Link
GOM SST 60hr forecast model..Link
Patrap~ wow, if everyone gets to sue the corps for not protecting them, even though they do live below sea level in a place that is known to be sinking, eventually seems noone would want to be held responsible for keeping the water out. You sue them for all that money & where do they get funds to fix & maintain the leeves? What's the lawyer's cut? At some point the cost & risk starts not looking worth the effort.

Not to say the corps didn't screw up. I wish you'd been here before this storm hit. We reviewed the research & the plans, we knew what was gonna happen, it looked like leeve failer was emenent & was appauld the plans weren't put into action.

CB~ shear is way high
Thats the way it..New Orleans older than most the country .They screwed the pooch on protection.Plain and simple.Galveston and many others can see the same fate.Tampa included.Only the water wouldnt remain.Only New Orleans is Below sea level.The city Proper.aka The Vieux carre.Has never flooded.Ever.Since Iberville and Bienville first founded us.A long,long time ago
Best read the articles again Skye...one sues for damages incurred by their design that was below specs laid out by Congress in 1965,..The story much more involved than a urine test.LOL.One ..or Thousands cant return worrying if the same to occur..or worse.So the Corps has to bear this burden.Thats called liability by deceit.But hey,..its only people we talking about..its not like we Baghdad or something important...END rant..LOL!
My personal/family claim was filed for $118,045.78..for personal loss and damages.Feb18th...and reciepts the likes that God has never seen too.
I see the right to sue. I just think the whole thing is a shame & it looks more lose lose by the day.

Pace of rebuilding after Katrina slows
Remember those 16,000 plus Gulf coastal folks still in travel trailers from the 05 storms to keep their NOAA radios in working order and heed local Severe watches and warnings when given.These temp homes are susceptible to Severe Thunderstorm winds alone.Never stay in a trailer..seek shelter in the renovated home or as directed by local statements.
Thats the hard part Skye..you right on that 100%..
These links are not what I was looking for but it explains a little bit the complications of certain decisions.

Link

Link

I couldn't help to read about the law suit against the Corps of Engineers and this placed myself back in time when I was following Katrina before it landed in New Orleans. At the time and before the leeves broke, I read an article talking about the desperate call from the Corps of Engineers done repeatedley since many years before to pinpoint the leevies problems and how it would brake. I wish I could find it now. In that article, the prediction of what later happened was shocking. I don't work the Corps, neither I have any interested in defending them, but I do know how tied the hands of governmental engineering is, and very well. And this comment is not an insensitive view to the people that suffer so deeply during that time. I spent many days with my heart in pieces.