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Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:34 PM GMT on November 16, 2012

The colossal devastation and loss of life wrought by Hurricane Sandy makes the storm one of the greatest disasters in U.S. history. The storm and its aftermath have rightfully dominated the weather headlines this year, and Sandy will undoubtedly be remembered as the most notable global weather event of 2012. But shockingly, Sandy is probably not even the deadliest or most expensive weather disaster this year in the United States--Sandy's damages of perhaps $50 billion will likely be overshadowed by the huge costs of the great drought of 2012. While it will be several months before the costs of America's worst drought since 1954 are known, the 2012 drought is expected to cut America's GDP by 0.5 - 1 percentage points, said Deutsche Bank Securities this week. “If the U.S. were growing at 4 percent, it wouldn’t be as big an issue, but at 2 percent, it’s noticed,” said Joseph LaVorgna, the chief U.S. economist at Deutsche. Since the U.S. GDP is approximately $15 trillion, the drought of 2012 represents a $75 - $150 billion hit to the U.S. economy. This is in the same range as the estimate of $77 billion in costs for the drought, made by Purdue University economist Chris Hurt in August. While Sandy's death toll of 113 in the U.S. is the second highest death toll from a U.S. hurricane since 1972, it is likely to be exceeded by the death toll from the heat waves that accompanied this year's drought. The heat waves associated with the U.S. droughts of 1980 and 1988 had death tolls of 10,000 and 7,500 respectively, according to NOAA's National Climatic Data Center, and the heat wave associated with the $12 billion 2011 Texas drought killed 95 Americans. With July 2012 the hottest month in U.S. history, I expect the final heat death toll in the U.S. this year will be much higher than Sandy's death toll.


Figure 1. The top-ten list of most expensive U.S. weather-related disasters from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) is dominated by hurricanes and droughts. Three of the top five disasters are droughts. The numbers for Hurricane Sandy and the 2012 drought are preliminary numbers from media sources, and are not from NCDC.

Drought: civilization's greatest natural enemy
People fear storms, and spectacular and devastating storms like Hurricane Sandy and Hurricane Katrina have stirred more debate in the U.S. about taking action against climate change than any other weather event. But I argue that this attention is misplaced. Drought is our greatest enemy. Drought impacts the two things we need to live--food and water. The history of civilization is filled with tales of great storms that have killed thousands and caused untold suffering and destruction. But cities impacted by great storms inevitably recover and rebuild, often stronger than before. I expect that New York City, the coast of New Jersey, and other areas battered by Sandy will do likewise. But drought can crash civilizations. Drought experts Justin Sheffield and Eric Wood of Princeton, in their 2011 book, Drought, list more than ten civilizations and cultures that probably collapsed because of drought. Among them: The Mayans of 800 - 1000 AD. The Anasazi culture in the Southwest U.S. in the 11th - 12th centuries. The ancient Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. The Chinese Ming Dynasty of 1500 - 1730. When the rains stop and the soil dries up, cities die and civilizations collapse, as people abandon lands no longer able to supply them with the food and water they need to live.


Figure 2. Ruins of the Cliff Palace at Mesa Verde National Park in Colorado. Beginning in 1150 AD, North America experienced a 300-year drought called the Great Drought. This drought has often been cited as a primary cause of the collapse of the ancient Anasazi civilization in the Southwest U.S., and abandonment of places like the Cliff Palace.

The coming great droughts
We should not assume that the 21st century global civilization is immune from collapse due to drought. If we continue on our current path of ever-increasing emissions of carbon dioxide, the hotter planet that we will create will surely spawn droughts far more intense than any seen in recorded history, severely testing the ability of our highly interconnected global economy to cope. The coming great drought disasters will occur at a time when climate change is simultaneously creating record rainfall and flooding in areas that happen to be in the way of storms. Global warming puts more heat energy into the atmosphere. That means more more water will evaporate from the oceans to create heavier rains and make storms stronger, and there will be more heat energy to increase the intensity of heat waves and droughts. It all depends upon if you happen to lie on the prevailing storm track or not which extreme you'll experience. In the future, if you're not being cooked in a record drought, you're going to be washed away in a record flood. Just ask the residents of the Midwest. In 2011, residents of the Midwest endured the largest floods on record on their three great rivers--the Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio. In 2012, the same region endured their worst drought since 1954, and a top-ten warmest summer.

The nation's top scientific research group, the National Research Council, released an 18-month study on November 9, 2012, titled, "Climate and Social Stress: Implications for Security Analysis". They stated: “It is prudent to expect that over the course of a decade some climate events--including single events, conjunctions of events occurring simultaneously or in sequence in particular locations, and events affecting globally integrated systems that provide for human well-being--will produce consequences that exceed the capacity of the affected societies or global system to manage and that have global security implications serious enough to compel international response.” In other words, states will fail, millions will suffer famine, mass migrations and war will break out, and national and international agencies will be too overwhelmed to cope. We were very lucky that the 2012 U.S. drought did not occur the year following the great 2010 Russian drought. That drought drove up food prices to the highest levels since 1992, and helped trigger social unrest that led to the "Arab Spring" revolts that overthrew multiple governments. Severe droughts in back-to-back years in major world grain-producing areas could cause unprecedented global famine and unrest, and climate change is steadily increasing the odds of this happening.


Figure 3. Black Sunday: On April 14, 1935 a "Black Blizzard" hit Oklahoma and Texas with 60 mph winds, sweeping up topsoil loosened by the great Dust Bowl drought that began in the early 1930s.

Learning from the past: the great Dust Bowl of the 1930s

"The clouds appeared and went away, and in a while they did not try anymore."
- Nobel Prize-winning author John Steinbeck in his 1939 classic, The Grapes of Wrath, describing the weather in Oklahoma during the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s.

No disaster in American history caused more suffering than the legendary Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s, as year after year of desperately dry conditions across the Great Plains dried out farmlands, forcing 2.5 million people to leave their homes and seek a better life elsewhere. At its peak in July 1934, drought conditions covered an astonishing 80% of the contiguous U.S., making it our largest drought ever recorded. The true cost of the drought is impossible to calculate, but the amount of government assistance paid out was $13 billion in today's dollars. The heat waves that accompanied the drought killed at least 5,000 people, making it one of the deadliest disasters in U.S. history. Fortunately, a repeat of the dust storms and hardships of the 1930s Dust Bowl are much less likely now, because we learned from our mistakes. In a 2009 paper titled, Amplification of the North American "Dust Bowl" drought through human-induced land degradation, a team of scientists led by Benjamin Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory explained the situation that led up to the Dust Bowl:

During the 1920s, agriculture in the United States expanded into the central Great Plains. Much of the original, drought-resistant prairie grass was replaced with drought-sensitive wheat. With no drought plan and few erosion-control measures in place, this led to large-scale crop failures at the initiation of the drought, leaving fields devegetated and barren, exposing easily eroded soil to the winds. This was the source of the major dust storms and atmospheric dust loading of the period on a level unprecedented in the historical record.

Improved farming practices adopted after the great Dust Bowl allowed the Midwest to endure the great multi-year drought of 1951 - 1954 without the kind of damage the Dust Bowl caused. Those improved farming practices, in combination with the development of improved drought-resistant grains, have helped keep the damages from the 2012 drought down. But climate change has the potential to bring far more severe droughts to the U.S. than anything seen in American history. The great drought of 2012 is a harbinger of the future, and we have a significant challenge to meet if we are to continue feeding the world in the face of intensifying droughts during the coming decades. We need to stop the unsustainable pumping of our aquifers, move even more aggressively to develop improved drought-resistant grains, and practice better water conservation if we are to avoid future Dust Bowl-scale tragedies.



Renowned documentary film maker Ken Burns debuts his new film, "The Dust Bowl", on PBS this Sunday and Monday, November 18 and 19, 2012, from 8 - 10 pm EST. Catch the trailer at pbs.org. It promises to be a fascinating and highly relevant story, told by one of America's great story-tellers. PBS is also airing a show on Hurricane Sandy, Inside the Megastorm, on NOVA on Sunday night November 18, at 7 pm. I helped them out this week with fact checking and graphics for the show.

Jeff Masters
Burned Corn
Burned Corn
From the wind and static electricity. This was no till corn
Drought
Drought
Most of Texas has been under serious drought conditions for about a year and a half. Much of the state is under Extreme Drought conditions. The agricultural/ranching/rural areas of the county are most affected, as the drought has a direct and significant impact on the livelihood of those making their living in a way dependent on nature. The importance of rain to daily life is reflected in this sign at a church in rural George West, Texas, in Live Oak, County.

Drought Climate Change Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
Interesting 1017 mb closed-low to develop off SE coast. Focus moisture a la back-door cold front.
pic.twitter.com/tQP6qYRx

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
@RyanMaue Shape of coast might have something to do with feedback and development. Nice loop from PSU to watch http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_SE/anim8ir.htm l

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue
@BigJoeBastardi we need to name it immediately. C storm --> We will call it the Cee-Low. ® on that TWC
Quoting AussieStorm:

We are the land of extremes. I'm bracing for summer here in Sydney. Even though we are in a neutral phase the bush has dried out and any bush fire that breaks out due to lightning or arson will take hold quickly.


Since it is 'normal' then I assume you are always prepared for it...

Either way, stay safe.
15F - 29.64"- falling  (-9C - 100.4KPa)
Quoting Dakster:


Since it is 'normal' then I assume you are always prepared for it...

Either way, stay safe.
I'm prepared as much as I can. I have a big back pack with first aid pack, change of closes for the 4 of us, 4x 1 ltr bottles of water and a fire box with all our important documents with space for a full back up copy of my main pc which contains all our photo's all on an external HDD.
Quoting Dakster:
Gro - At least update to IE 6.0...


IE 2.4 was his UPGRADE. Before he upgraded to IE2.4 he was using Telnet 1.0. ... I was always amazed at how he post pictures using Telnet. I was afraid to ask.
Quoting ABlass:
15F - 29.64"- falling  (-9C - 100.4KPa)



I think you won the game :)
Quoting AussieStorm:


1 station reporting temperature -40C to -44C
UEEE: Jakutsk, Russia [-40C, -40.0F]

Past 3 Hours: 36C (96.8F) [YTEF:Telfer, Australia]
Past 24 Hours: 41C (105.8F) [YCIN:Curtin, Australia]

1 station reporting wind gusts 70kt or stronger
URKA: Anapa / Vitiazevo, Russia [175kt, 90m/s]

1 station reporting wind gusts 60-69kt
KSDM: San Diego, Brown Field Municipal Airport, CA, United States [61kt, 31m/s]

1 station reporting (sustained) wind chill of -50C to -59C
NZSP: Amundsen-Scott Stn, Antarctica [-53.3C, -63.9F]


Ty Aussie..It always amazes me that the extremes in temps this time of year are not as many KM/Miles apart as in July..Just my observation..
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Aaaand it's back...



Drought develops across Southeast Texas


Posted: Nov 16, 2012 8:32 PM CST Updated: Nov 17, 2012 5:24 AM CST
By Patrick Vaughn

Moderate Drought Conditions have returned to Southeast Texas according to the Drought Monitor. Moderate Drought classification is the second level of drought severity.

The current conditions have developed due to below-normal rainfall since September. October was very dry with 4.26 inches below normal. At this point, our area is about 5.60" below normal from September 1st through today. Since September 1st, we are down 41% of normal rainfall. Still, for the year, Southeast Texas has seen 118% more rain compared to last year's historic drought.

The three-month precipitation forecast from the Climate Prediction Center calls for the drought to persist.
Since No El Nino most of Texas will be in Severe to Extreme Drought again before you know it, it is beyond dry here, should be a Warm Thanksgiving for most of Texas and quite a few other states in the Western half of the USA.
Glad this is not Italy...

Forecasters derided for late warning

Brisbanites only knew a ferocious storm was upon them when they were being pounded by almost cyclonic winds and hail, with forecasters issuing a warning too late.

The Bureau of Meteorology's Facebook page has erupted with criticism over why locals weren't warned of a severe storm until five minutes after it hit the inner Brisbane city on Saturday morning.

It was the worst storm in 14 months.

Winds up to 90 kilometres per hour lashed the bayside, small hailstones fell all over the icty, four centimetres of rain was dumped on the CBD in just half an hour, and 10,000 lightning strikes tore through the sky.

Cars were submerged in the inner-city suburb of Bowen Hills and trees toppled over throughout the city.

The weather bureau said the storm only showed signs of severity when it approached Brisbane.

For a warning to be issued, a storm must meet certain rain, wind, hail and tornado criteria, and the storm on Saturday had only ticked a couple of those boxes, when it was too late.

"The short duration - from minutes, and often less than and hour - and very localised nature of thunderstorms make them very difficult to predict in nature," the bureau's Queensland regional director Rob Webb said.

"The bureau ... doesn't aim to issue warning for every thunderstorm but uses thresholds to ensure there isn't complacency in the community due to over-warning."

Locals are unforgiving and have taken to social media to take aim.

"BOM your letting those who trust you will inform them DOWN!!!," David Cook posted.

"Got caught with your pants down on that one hey BOM???," Jess Lyn posted.

Ipswich councillor Paul Tully also went public with his criticism, accusing the bureau of being asleep on the job and calling for an apology and an internal inquiry for its "monumental failure".

"They must have been enjoying a long morning tea or an early lunch not to realise the intensity of the approaching storm," he said.

About 2500 people in southeast Queensland are still without power.

Weak storms are forecast for Brisbane on Sunday and there is a risk they will become severe later in the day in Brisbane, on the Gold and Sunshine coasts and around Bundaberg.

Link
Reminds me of Tropical Storm Alberto from May of this year. And it may indeed become a tropical cyclone over the coming days.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SOUTHEAST QUEENSLAND
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the BRISBANE CITY, MORETON BAY and parts of the GOLD COAST CITY, LOGAN CITY, GYMPIE, IPSWICH CITY, SUNSHINE COAST, SOMERSET and REDLAND CITY Council Areas.
Issued at 1:03 pm Sunday, 18 November 2012.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 1:05 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Ipswich, the D'Aguilar Ranges and the area west of Toolara. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Dayboro, Toolara and Tin Can Bay by 1:35 pm and Beenleigh, Logan City, Strathpine, Redcliffe and Caboolture by 2:05 pm.
Damaging winds and large hailstones are likely.
Emergency Management Queensland advises that people should:
* Move your car under cover or away from trees.
* Secure loose outdoor items.
* Seek shelter, preferably indoors and never under trees.
* Avoid using the telephone during a thunderstorm.
* Beware of fallen trees and powerlines.
* For emergency assistance contact the SES on 132 500.
The next warning is due to be issued by 2:05 pm.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reminds me of Tropical Storm Alberto from May of this year. And it may indeed become a tropical cyclone over the coming days.



I don't want to do anymore reports. Stop being such a sadist.
43 F .. 30.45 steady ..
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't want to do anymore reports. Stop being such a sadist.

A sadist? That is the first time I have heard that before. We could get one more storm, but I think the season is over. Anyway, I want to get to winter already.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't want to do anymore reports. Stop being such a sadist.

Oh stop complaining...I'm doing them too.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh stop complaining...I'm doing them too.

That makes 3 of us doing them.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


IE 2.4 was his UPGRADE. Before he upgraded to IE2.4 he was using Telnet 1.0. ... I was always amazed at how he post pictures using Telnet. I was afraid to ask.


Cut and paste.
There are now 33 days until the 2012 Winter Soltice.
Vostok, Antarctica wunderreport

Temperature
-32 °F
Feels Like -32 °F
Quoting Patrap:
Vostok, Antarctica wunderreport

Temperature
-32 °F
Feels Like -32 °F

Spring!
Published on Nov 17, 2012 by NewsVideoHD

At least eight people were injured in Portugal on Friday when a tornado hit the south of the country.

Violent winds brought down power lines and caused severe flooding and major damage to homes and businesses across the Algarve.

Not liking this right now.



Dual-ling super-cells.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh stop complaining...I'm doing them too.


You better post them on DD like I do then.
Quoting wxchaser97:

A sadist? That is the first time I have heard that before. We could get one more storm, but I think the season is over. Anyway, I want to get to winter already.




then you say you want summer all ready with 120 heat
WIAT CBS42 ‏@CBS42
AP: Coast Guard: Divers find body near Gulf oil rig that caught fire; 2 workers were missing
Quoting KoritheMan:


You better post them on DD like I do then.

I'll just link to my blog on there.

I have to get caught up in my school work first though. I have a 99 in English II, a 95 in Public Speaking, a 93 in Sophomore Seminar, a 85 in Spanish 1, a 94 in US History, a 41 in Physical Science.

Have 30 odd assignments to do in that class...it's so freaking difficult.
Quoting Grothar:


Cut and paste.


Well, that explains why my monitor is always so dirty.



But how did you ..... never mind. Again, I am afraid to ask.
O2, CO2 levels last 550 million years. CO2 up to 20 times today's. @space2develop From "Out of Thin Air", by Peter Ward

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll just link to my blog on there.

I have to get caught up in my school work first though. I have a 99 in English II, a 95 in Public Speaking, a 93 in Sophomore Seminar, a 85 in Spanish 1, a 94 in US History, a 41 in Physical Science.

Have 30 odd assignments to do in that class...it's so freaking difficult.


Ah, physical science, my problem is I don't get any work, so no practice. Just barely passing my AP Physics class right now...and I am getting to fluid dynamics.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'll just link to my blog on there.

I have to get caught up in my school work first though. I have a 99 in English II, a 95 in Public Speaking, a 93 in Sophomore Seminar, a 85 in Spanish 1, a 94 in US History, a 41 in Physical Science.

Have 30 odd assignments to do in that class...it's so freaking difficult.

Oh quit complaining about physical science, that is all you seem to complain about. At least you don't have to do a homework assignment that is due in 50 minutes.
For anybody that is wondering, Hurricane Sandy's death toll is now up to 209 overall. The fatality count spiked to 131 in the United States, while 60 are being reported dead in Haiti; 15 are still missing. 11 deaths occurred in Cuba, along with 2 each in the Bahamas, Canada, and the Dominican Republic. The death toll in Jamaica remains at 1.
Quoting AussieStorm:
O2, CO2 levels last 550 million years. CO2 up to 20 times today's. @space2develop From "Out of Thin Air", by Peter Ward


Don't take the bait!
Quoting Tazmanian:




then you say you want summer all ready with 120 heat

Nah not really, I love the snow and cold.
Quoting bappit:

Don't take the bait!

It was retweeted by a very respected scientist here. Dr Karl Kruszelnicki is his name.
Totally off-topic...but since I know there are some from round there, just in case...not something I would even post, but for some reason felt compelled to (and the person I saw the link from posts them daily) So in case someone looking for a devoted pooch

Link



On topic...OMG that vid from the tornado in Portugal...don't think I'd have even recorded for that long and gone and hid!

And Aussie..man, I rememeber crazy storm in Colorado with lightening every 2 secs....no, multiple every sec!!....just crazy! Really hope doesn't start any fires though...ugh, remember those well from So Cal :s
Nothing too impressive yet.

Quoting wxchaser97:

Oh quit complaining about physical science, that is all you seem to complain about. At least you don't have to do a homework assignment that is due in 50 minutes.

Phew, finished with 30 minutes to spare. That is cutting it a little too close for comfort.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I don't want to do anymore reports. Stop being such a sadist.


Obv you copied the use of sadist from me. :)

Has anyone realized with Sandy obviously getting her name retired, we now have a wealth of possible replacement names? We've never had to retire an S storm before. The list of female names that start with S is endless. I can't even guess which one it would be.

As for Isaac...well it's not long before we have to call in crazy religious I names that sound like they should belong to dragons.
Quoting wxgeek723:


Obv you copied the use of sadist from me. :)

Has anyone realized with Sandy obviously getting her name retired, we now have a wealth of possible replacement names? We've never had to retire an S storm before. The list of female names that start with S is endless. I can't even guess which one it would be.

As for Isaac...well it's not long before we have to call in crazy religious I names that sound like they should belong to dragons.

I really liked the name Isaac on the hurricane list though, mostly because it is my name.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
5:30 AM IST November 18 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays at 16.0N 88.5E, or about 950 km east northeast of Chennai, 600 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km southeast of Paradip. The system is likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm and move slowly west northwestward during the next 6 hours and west/west southwestward towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coast during subsequent 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection seen over Bay of Bengal between 15.0N to 19.5N and 87.0E to 93.5E. Moderate to intense convection over rest Bay of Bengal north of 12.0N east of 86.5E and Arakan coast. Associated convection has increased gradually with respect to organization during past 12 hours. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Over southern Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50 - 80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less (< 50 kj/cm2) over southwestern Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu coast and northern Bay of Bengal. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 5. As per statistical and numerical weather prediction model predictions, it is expected to lie in phase 5 during next 3 days. The low level convergence and relative vorticity have increased during past six hrs. The maximum vorticity lies over southwest sector of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (15-25 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.1N 87.3E - 40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS: 15.2N 85.7E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.5N 84.5E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 13.4N 83.0E - 25 knots (Depression)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reminds me of Tropical Storm Alberto from May of this year. And it may indeed become a tropical cyclone over the coming days.



Does this potential developing system off the Carolinas have any relation to the nor'easter that Dr. Masters mentioned a couple of days ago? He mentioned the possibility of one affecting Massachusetts/Nova Scotia.
Waterspout off Southern NSW.
Link
Channel 7 Brisbane news story on Yesterdays storms.

Link
NSW HOMES DAMAGED BY WILD STORMS

The State Emergency Service (SES) says storms in northern New South Wales have destroyed at least one house and a dozen others have been severely damaged.

The village of Woodburn, south of Ballina, was hardest hit when the storm hit about 7pm AEDT last night.

The wild weather also caused .

In NSW, the SES has received at least 90 calls for help across the state's north.

It has been advised that power for about 2,000 properties could be out for up to 48 hours because major power lines have come down.

SES acting region controller Kaylene Jones says strong winds and hail wrought havoc.

"There are between 12 and 14 houses that we're aware of at this point in time that have substantial structural damage," she said.

"So that's either entire rooves have been taken off, some walls are blown out and damaged and so on.

"Those houses are quite uninhabitable. There is one house that's completely collapsed."
Quoting AussieStorm:
O2, CO2 levels last 550 million years. CO2 up to 20 times today's. @space2develop From "Out of Thin Air", by Peter Ward



Yep. CO2 and O2 levels have been different in the past. During that time, as the Sun ages, it has also very slowly, on a logarithmic scale, increased in luminosity. That doesn't matter on short timescales, as in ten million years, but it does matter over the long period of time represented by that graph. The Sun increases in luminosity by about 10% every billion years, so over that time it's increased by about 7% (due to the effects of logarithmic growth). That's a very substantial climate signal. Note that 65 million years ago, around the time of the dinosaurs, CO2 levels were around 4%. At that time, sea levels were hugely higher than today.

People calling upon that graph to question anthropogenic global warming should bear in mind that over *that* scale, changes in solar luminosity actually do matter, and that sea levels were much, much higher over most of those periods. Unless we want to return to those conditions, we need to restrain our emissions.

Quoting wxgeek723:


Obv you copied the use of sadist from me. :)
Don't underestimate my vernacular, kiddies.
It's been a long day. Lets hope once this one has gone out to see, that will be it and the clean-up can start.

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
11:30 AM IST November 18 2012
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over east central Bay of Bengal moved westward and now lays near 16.0N 88.0E, or about 900 km east northeast of Chennai, 550 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam, and 500 km southeast of Paradip. The system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm and move slowly westward during the next 12 hours and west southwestward towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts subsequent 72 hours.

According to satellite imagery, the vortex is over east central Bay of Bengal adjoining west central Bay of Bengal near 16.1N 88.2E. The Dvorak intensity of the system is T2.0. Cloud top temperature due to convection is -70C. Wind shear is of the order of 10-20 knots near the vortex and shear tendency is decreasing over the area. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection over Bay of Bengal near 14.5N to 19.5N and 85.5E to 93.0E. Moderate to intense convection over northeast Bay of Bengal.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots gusting up to 40 knots. The central pressure of the deep depression is 1002 hPa. The state of the sea is very rough to high around the center of the system.

Buoy located near 16.5N 88.0E reported 27 knot winds and a mean sea level pressure of 1005.4 hPa.

Considering the environmental features, the sea surface temperature is about 28-30C. Over southern Bay of Bengal. The ocean thermal energy is 50-80 kj/cm2 around the system center. It is less (< 50 kj/cm2) over southwestern Bay of Bengal off northern Tamil Nadu coast and northern Bay of Bengal. The Madden Julian Oscillation index currently lies over phase 6. The low level convergence has decreased and upper air divergence has increased during past six hrs. The maximum vorticity lies over southwest sector of the system. The vertical wind shear between 200 and 850 HPA levels is moderate (15-25 knots) around system center.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 16.0N 87.7E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
24 HRS: 15.1N 86.3E - 35 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS: 14.2N 84.0E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
72 HRS: 13.2N 82.0E - 25 knot (Depression)
good morning folks..cool here this morning..............
and for those travelling for Thanksgiving this week......
Quoting AussieStorm:
O2, CO2 levels last 550 million years. CO2 up to 20 times today's. @space2develop From "Out of Thin Air", by Peter Ward



stop and consider for a minute, the power of fire in an atmosphere that is 10% richer in oxygen than today.

Good morning gang!!

Good evening Aussie!!
Quoting indianrivguy:


stop and consider for a minute, the power of fire in an atmosphere that is 10% richer in oxygen than today.

Good morning gang!!

Good evening Aussie!!


You have evidence that atmospheric O2 is increasing?
Quoting indianrivguy:
Good evening Aussie!!

Good Evening. Been busy day here in Oz. Had a nice "little" waterspout.

Good morning. We now have the first official fatality from that oil rig explosion the other day, unfortunately.

Link
Quoting JupiterKen:


You have evidence that atmospheric O2 is increasing?
Atmospheric oxygen is decreasing due to the burning of fossil fuels:

Oxygen

Source
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. We now have the first official fatality from that oil rig explosion the other day, unfortunately.

Link

Have they found the other missing rig workers?
Quoting AussieStorm:

Have they found the other missing rig workers?

No, one worker remains missing, divers are still searching for him.
Another view of the Batemans Bay Waterspout.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. We now have the first official fatality from that oil rig explosion the other day, unfortunately.

Link
Yeah sad to say but these things do happen, prayers to his family
Any comments on this article that says Arctic will be ice free by 2016?

http://www.takepart.com/article/2012/09/20/ice-fr ee-north-pole-just-few-years-leading-scientist-say s?cmpid=tp-ad-outbrain-general

Link
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening. Been busy day here in Oz. Had a nice "little" waterspout.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening. Been busy day here in Oz. Had a nice "little" waterspout.



EEEK! How I would not like to see that coming towards me. Or like that one from Portugal...I'd not have been at the window watching!
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


EEEK! How I would not like to see that coming towards me. Or like that one from Portugal...I'd not have been at the window watching!


I would just stand there in Awe of it. Then would of started taking a video/photo's.

Brisbane today,






Very high pressure continuing to dominate the NE this morning, I've made it all the way to 30.70, and some stations a little further north are close to 30.80!

1 KM Visible Satellite for Carolinas



1 KM Visible Satellite for Florida


1 KM Visible Satellite for Southern Florida


30:64 and 77 RH in Western CT.
Brisbane today. Very wild.

CMC..30hrs. out


CMC..60hrs.out
Goodnight all.
bump
I finally got back on.
Quoting Tazmanian:
bump


I got back on first. LOL
Ok..here we go again..
Server down error that I recieved..

Internal Server Error
The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 Server at www.wunderground.com Port 80

Anyone else get that too..??Frustrating.. :(
Quoting Grothar:


I got back on first. LOL




you seen noting 1st
Quoting pcola57:
Ok..here we go again..
Server down error that I recieved..

Internal Server Error
The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 Server at www.wunderground.com Port 80

Anyone else get that too..??Frustrating.. :(



deal with it nothing we can do about it
Im in Wilmington NC. Surprised the weather channel hasnt named this winter low off my coast. Winds are around 20-35 with higher gusts.
Quoting Tazmanian:



deal with it nothing we can do about it


Don't start with me Taz..
I consider that a personal/trolling me insult...
These server errors are getting really annoying. Well we are now back so that's good.
589. txjac
Quoting pcola57:
Ok..here we go again..
Server down error that I recieved..

Internal Server Error
The server encountered an internal error or misconfiguration and was unable to complete your request.

Please contact the server administrator, support@wunderground.com and inform them of the time the error occurred, and anything you might have done that may have caused the error.

More information about this error may be available in the server error log.

Apache/1.3.42 Server at www.wunderground.com Port 80

Anyone else get that too..??Frustrating.. :(


I've gotten that error everytime I am on for the last few days. Usually have to wait and eventually it allows me back in
Quoting wxchaser97:
These server errors are getting really annoying. Well we are now back so that's good.

I agree, once in a while is no problem but WU needs to get its act together and take care of whatever keeps causing the problem.
Quoting wxchaser97:
These server errors are getting really annoying. Well we are now back so that's good.


Quoting MAweatherboy1:

I agree, once in a while is no problem but WU needs to get its act together and take care of whatever keeps causing the problem.


Quoting txjac:


I've gotten that error everytime I am on for the last few days. Usually have to wait and eventually it allows me back in


I'm Ok with an equipment upgrade if that's what's happening..
I just think it would be to Admin's benefit to post a statement on it..to keep us here in the loop..
Or if they are truly having difficulty with the servers that statement would be helpful too..JMO of course..
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?
RAMDIS has had a floater on this blob in the East Atlantic for two days now. Click pic for loop. It started firing from the surface for a moment & the gets blown out, leaving a quick moving outflow boundary.

Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)


how do you hide ads?
Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?


Paying member Nea..
And I agree that this would be a prime time to do maintenance..
Kinda would like to be informed though..being a paying member and all..

Handle: pcola57
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2013-09-08 14:18:24
Signed Up: 2009-08-13 15:29:17
Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?

*raises hand*

*puts hand down*

I'm a paying member and still have the error.
Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?

*doesn't raise hand because I'm a paid member*

Just for proof...
Handle: wxchaser97
Status: No-Ads Paid Membership
Expiration: 2013-11-12 14:38:35
Signed Up: 2012-03-15 20:17:56
598. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:


how do you hide ads?


Get a ad blocker extension for either Chrome , firefox or Opera ... You can pause it for this site ....
Quoting plutorising:


how do you hide ads?


I think you can be a non-paying member and get WU "add free" with some of the "pop-up blockers" pluto..
Quoting plutorising:


how do you hide ads?

Become a paid member or do it in ways that bypass the paying membership. It is best just to become a paying member though imo.
i've got a question. i have a particular interest in the coastal islands around the georgia/south carolina border, hunting island especially. it is washing away at a great rate, and most of the houses have fallen in over the past few years.

my question is where i can i look at coastal erosion reports for that area?

thanks all.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Become a paid member or do it in ways that bypass the paying membership. It is best just to become a paying member though imo.


thanks vr46l, pcola57 and wxchaser97

i don't see any ads and i'm not a paid member. i'm not sure why, tho, because i use only ghostery, and it blocks 11 sites. when i pause it and reload the page, it looks exactly the same, so those must be cookies or something?

i've never seen an ad on this blog.

is the server broken again?
......................GFS at 144 hours
Quoting pcola57:


I think you can be a non-paying member and get WU "add free" with some of the "pop-up blockers" pluto..
...Though you'd be in violation of the rules:
Quoting Weather Underground's Terms and Conditions of Use:

By using, accessing and/or viewing information on the Site, you (the Participant) agree to be bound by these Terms. If you violate these Terms, WUI has the right to terminate your use of the Site...

...In accepting the [No Charge] Subscription, you acknowledge that you will receive paid advertising...as it is the revenues from that advertsing that enables Weather Underground to provide the Weather Updates at no cost to you.
Quoting Neapolitan:
...Though you'd be in violation of the rules:


Very true Nea..I didn't/don't advocate it.. :)
608. txjac
Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?


Never thought it could be because of not being a paid member ...I used to be but I forgot about signing back up ...I will do so.

I however do not block ads so that isnt it
WU's paid membership is so inexpensive that I cannot imagine that trying to outwit the free membership's limitations is even worth the bother--but I guess some here have nothing better to do...
Slow weather day. I thought the science enthusiasts would appreciate this. From the smallest particle, to the unimaginably large. Its long but shows the shear size of things...Link
Cyclone 3B has completely fallen apart:

612. txjac
Your subscription is now good until November 19th 2013 12:41:49.


Thanks for the reminder Nea!
Not too many more TWO's left :(

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting Snowfire:
WU's paid membership is so inexpensive that I cannot imagine that trying to outwit the free membership's limitations is even worth the bother--but I guess some here have nothing better to do...


Im not paying $10 for it...however that isnt hte problem.
People who don't block ads still have issues.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Not too many more TWO's left :(

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
100 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
I think we could at least get get Valerie before December.
Slowly coming together.

Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake

So a 4.9 qauke is by no means massive but a pretty good quake. How strong would an earthqauke have to be on the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge to produce the tsunami that would really do the east coast in. Maps say around 6 hours later the wave would start hitting parts of the east coast. Also how shallow would it have to be.
Quoting allancalderini:
I think we could at least get get Valerie before December.
Any thoughts on that area in the SW Caribbean? There is also a 1010 low at 76w,11N....
620. vis0
EXCELLENT, why those whom know of your writings respect it 'cause you find tons of info "crunch it" (which takes TIME, our most valuable possession). Therm take more Time to write it in a manner that people whom know little or nothing  of the subject you write of , can still understand it and in a balanced manner
 
Now my (crazy) 22cents. NOT disagreeing  as to the monetary value that's on the dot correct. Though  when one takes in the long term, of course if storms repeated themselves more often,  then floods do more damage as to man made infrastructures, as imagine a "Sandy" occurring (just) 2 times a year ... OVER the same area  it would would pass any drought in damages.

 i think what man has to re-learn is nature's REACTIONARY micro-extremes.(What we knew as natives be it European or other continent's natives was lost with the industrial revolution and commercialism, making money is okay but don't forget the "unconditional love" contract with nature. She gives you the
 "ingredients" to invent, so we should make sure that new things we create do not harm her)   These micro-extremes occur when something is placed into nature and that something does not go with nature's flow.
 One example can be grouped under artificial pollutants. But i state the output is far worse than just warming (the present warming i believe is 2/3rds created by the Sun's/Galactic cycles**. If the problem in the LONG TERM was just one thing (warming) all man has to do is find out ways to balance the warming by causing nature to cool, BUT when we look back after 3 to 4 sun ":enclosed" cycles or ~ 128 later (we won't be around, not in our present body but these notes will, hopefully others will read). We will notice that sure man added ~1 to 1.25 Fahrenheit degree(s) but since the 1960s through Early 2000 years the Sun was in its natural ~2 degree warming cycle, so man's +1 degree caused the Climate to go over an amount that affects human life in a negative manner. Therefore i prefer calling this effect as being a result of Global Climate Schizo, as when its time for Earth to go into the Sun's cooling cycle, the +1 F, man added degree will not allow Earth to inhale naturally. Think of it as when one inhales then exhales, the inhales is the cooling breath the exhale is the warming breath and if one doesn't not inhale fully one lowers the "clean" energy fuel intake for one to be creative. Well these pollutants are not allowing Earth to breathe correctly (as if holding its breathe, if one does this one's brain can short out and one faints). Well the result as to a planet is Global Climate Schizo, which is worse than just warming cause its harder to predict and if one/man can't predict whats is next how can one solve it. Cutting this short as its NFL time & tinkering with the ml-d (ml-d a weather influencing device read my blog for more ,peace
Quoting Neapolitan:
A show of hands: how many of those complaining about (or just silently upset by) the temporary forum outages are a) non-paying members who b) violate the site's terms of use by hiding ads?

Yeah, that's what I thought... ;-)

It's a quiet Sunday morning in the U.S., with no severe weather brewing. What better time, then, to perform some maintenance and upgrades? It has to be done sometime, so better now than midweek or, say, when a hurricane is spinning toward a populated area. Right?
Nea, you can see my hand from 87 miles away as the crow flies J. P.? ... I have my hand up... How many fingers do you see??
Quoting txjac:


Never thought it could be because of not being a paid member ...I used to be but I forgot about signing back up ...I will do so.

I however do not block ads so that isnt it


I am a paid member and I also use AdBlock. I wouldn't know how to exempt this one site from AdBock if I were not a paid member.

I have been having problems with the Comments and the Chat sections.
Scientific American:

"Climate Change Faster Than Predicted"


Link
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake

So a 4.9 qauke is by no means massive but a pretty good quake. How strong would an earthqauke have to be on the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge to produce the tsunami that would really do the east coast in. Maps say around 6 hours later the wave would start hitting parts of the east coast. Also how shallow would it have to be.


Well, it's not just size though. I think it'd have to be very large, at least 7+, but likely also either on the right kind of fault (what are they called, strike/slip faults) that help bring the motion of water up...or cause a massive underwater avalanche that does the same. that's part why not all really big underwater quakes cause tsunami. shallower ones would certainly help too. if you look at the Indonesian or Japanese one, it's very rare to have the perfect ingredients for a massive and devestating one like those, despite loads of huge under seas quakes. Liklier would be a small tsunami, the kind that happen in many places fairly often...though obviously it 'could' happen like those 2 anywhere along the under sea plate boundaries. there was evidence of a massive one like that on the Washington state coast, that liekly happened about 300 years ago or something. One over in Borneo was it? about a decade ago. scary stuff though, especially one like the Indonesia one, where no one all the way over in India/Sri Lanka had any idea it was coming
Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake

So a 4.9 qauke is by no means massive but a pretty good quake. How strong would an earthqauke have to be on the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge to produce the tsunami that would really do the east coast in. Maps say around 6 hours later the wave would start hitting parts of the east coast. Also how shallow would it have to be.


Well I'm pretty sure those two plates are moving away fom each other, not towards each other.
Takes a while to load but alot of aerial imagery from Sandy.

Instructions: If you are unable to access your home, enter your address below and click locate. The map will zoom to the address entered and show any post-Sandy aerial imagery available.
FAST-GROWING
SUNSPOT:
Barely visible when the
weekend began, sunspot AR1619 has blossomed into
a large active region more than three times as wide
as Earth. Click
to play
a 24 hour movie recorded by NASA's Solar
and Heliospheric Observatory:
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Any thoughts on that area in the SW Caribbean? There is also a 1010 low at 76w,11N....
I don`t think is going to develop. but the Area near the Carolinas may become something this upcoming week.


NGC 6357: Cathedral to Massive Stars
Image Credit: NASA, ESA and Jesús Maíz Apellániz (IAA, Spain)

Explanation: How massive can a normal star be? Estimates made from distance, brightness and standard solar models had given one star in the open cluster Pismis 24 over 200 times the mass of our Sun, nearly making it the record holder. This star is the brightest object located just above the gas front in the above image. Close inspection of images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, however, have shown that Pismis 24-1 derives its brilliant luminosity not from a single star but from three at least. Component stars would still remain near 100 solar masses, making them among the more massive stars currently on record. Toward the bottom of the image, stars are still forming in the associated emission nebula NGC 6357. Appearing perhaps like a Gothic cathedral, energetic stars near the center appear to be breaking out and illuminating a spectacular cocoon.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Scientific American:

"Climate Change Faster Than Predicted"


Link

Good example of how a headline writer can distort what an article says. It would be more accurate to say:

"Study Indicates Climate Change Likely Faster Than Predicted"

Still looks like a significant finding, but the headline is annoying.
Near earth asteroid miss today..2012 VE77, Nov 18, miss distance 4.5 LD, Size 24 m.
To say sea ice has disappeared faster than modeled would be correct..

Documentary starting on BBC2 in 15 minutes - Sandy: Anatomy of a Superstorm, focusing mainly on the New York storm surge.

It'll very probably be on BBC iPlayer from tomorrow, which is the BBC's Internet site, where they show their TV progs.

You're not supposed to be able to access it from outside the UK, but maybe some of you tech savvy guys will find a way around that. I don't know if it can be done.
The abstract to a paper that Skye's link references: Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations.

"The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized."
Quoting Bielle:


I am a paid member and I also use AdBlock. I wouldn't know how to exempt this one site from AdBock if I were not a paid member.

I have been having problems with the Comments and the Chat sections.


Bielle I recommend contacting WU directly through your WU mail box..
You have to write a ticket (WU e-mail) with this:

"If you do not find the answer to your question in our Knowledge Base and do not want to submit a ticket, you can reach Tech Support directly at support@wunderground.com"

Make sure you can describe what the problems are in detail as if you do not, you will only get referred to the "Knoledge Base" page and in there I became lost quite easliy..
Link
Good Luck !!.. :)
Quoting Skyepony:
Near earth asteroid miss today..2012 VE77, Nov 18, miss distance 4.5 LD, Size 24 m.


One day, our luck wont hold.

Quoting Patrap:


One day, our luck wont hold.

Pat.........I agree, It is bound to happen... That would put your eye out kid.
Quoting Skyepony:
To say sea ice has disappeared faster than modeled would be correct..



The models were saying 2100 for summer disappearance of Arctic Ocean sea ice. BIG error.

The problem with the models is that many feedback processes are poorly understood. Most are positive, serving to enhance the warming. But because they're poorly understood, the modellers either don't incorporate them, or do so very conservatively.

In the past 10 years, average annual atmospheric CO2 increase has been 2.1 ppm, up from 1.5 ppm in the 90s. If that's a real trend, it's hugely significant, but I don't remember seeing any model predictions for it.
Quoting Skyepony:


NGC 6357: Cathedral to Massive Stars
Image Credit: NASA, ESA and Jesús Maíz Apellániz (IAA, Spain)

Explanation: How massive can a normal star be? Estimates made from distance, brightness and standard solar models had given one star in the open cluster Pismis 24 over 200 times the mass of our Sun, nearly making it the record holder. This star is the brightest object located just above the gas front in the above image. Close inspection of images taken with the Hubble Space Telescope, however, have shown that Pismis 24-1 derives its brilliant luminosity not from a single star but from three at least. Component stars would still remain near 100 solar masses, making them among the more massive stars currently on record. Toward the bottom of the image, stars are still forming in the associated emission nebula NGC 6357. Appearing perhaps like a Gothic cathedral, energetic stars near the center appear to be breaking out and illuminating a spectacular cocoon.


NASA pic of they day Skye ???..soooo cool..
I hope we can get the Hubble telescope to a position that will ,in whatever way it can,help mankind.. :)
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Pat.........I agree, It is bound to happen... That would put your eye out kid.



And destroy half of humanity as well...
Quoting Patrap:


One day, our luck wont hold.



We must prepare for that Pat as it is not a matter of if but when.. :)
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
208 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2012

NCC019-129-182200-
/O.NEW.KILM.FA.Y.0086.121118T1908Z-121118T2200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
208 PM EST SUN NOV 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

EASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA
NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 500 PM EST

* AT 203 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A
BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL BEING CHANNELED INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION.
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS A VERY SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ASHORE MAY ACT TO INTENSIFY THE RAINFALL RATES.

Quoting Jedkins01:



And destroy half of humanity as well...
Jedkins.It may be hundreds of years, thousands of years, millions of years.......But it will happen. Even if we have the ability to move an asteroid a few degrees off course, One that is the size of Texas we will have not too much of a chance.
Sounds like a tropical storm outside. Yard is flooded.
If you happen to be one of those people who have heard the legend of Florida having endless heat and humidity, look a little further and you'll find that's true for only about 4.5 months of the year. The other 7.5 is amazing weather, come to Florida now through April and you'll know why its a great place to live :)

And if you're like me and you love lots of thunderstorm action, the excitement of thunderstorms during late May through Early October is enough to help you bare through the uncomfortable steamy season! lol
Quoting pcola57:


We must prepare for that Pat as it is not a matter of if but when.. :)


True, but if the rock comes as a Big one,from above or below the ecliptic, well...there is nothing much we can do.

Save for prayer



Purdue unveils 'Impact: Earth!' asteroid impact effects calculator

Quoting Jedkins01:
If you happen to be one of those people who have heard the legend of Florida having endless heat and humidity, look a little further and you'll find that's true for only about 4.5 months of the year. The other 7.5 is amazing weather, come to Florida now through April and you'll know why its a great place to live :)

And if you're like me and you love lots of thunderstorm action, the excitement of thunderstorms during late May through Early October is enough to help you bare through the uncomfortable steamy season! lol
Jedkins....I absolutely love the Florida weather... I spent a few years in South Carolina.....Now that is hot.
Quoting Patrap:


True, but if the rock comes as a Big one,from above or below the ecliptic, well...there is nothing much we can do.

Save for prayer



Purdue unveils 'Impact: Earth!' asteroid impact effects calculator



Thanks for the article and video Pat..sobering..
Quoting Patrap:


True, but if the rock comes as a Big one,from above or below the ecliptic, well...there is nothing much we can do.

Save for prayer



Purdue unveils 'Impact: Earth!' asteroid impact effects calculator

I just hope I can see the final episode of "The Young and the Restless" Not that it matters, BUT, I have to know what happens with Paul and Christine.
co2now.org

391.03ppm


Atmospheric CO2 for October 2012

Quoting NJcat3cane:
Mid Atlantic Ridge Quake

So a 4.9 qauke is by no means massive but a pretty good quake. How strong would an earthqauke have to be on the Northern Mid Atlantic Ridge to produce the tsunami that would really do the east coast in. Maps say around 6 hours later the wave would start hitting parts of the east coast. Also how shallow would it have to be.


The type of faults that exist out there would make it nearly impossible to produce a dangerous Tsunami.

Not saying totally impossible, but it would need to be huge.

Generally, most faults can't produce a truly "epic" Tsunami like the boxing day or Japan events, until at least 8.0, and typically more likely 8.8 or so. Tsunami warnings on a 7.5 or less are usually ridiculous, unless there's unique topography involved or the chance of a secondary landslide driven Tsunami happening. You usually can't make 5 or 10ft Tsunami waves off a 7.5, and 1ft of water isn't going to make much different for most places on Earth.

So anyway, the faults out there would need to do something which I can't imagine what, like explode into a super-plume or some other ridiculous crap, before anything like Japan or the Boxing Day tsunami could happen. The probability of that happening in a given year is probably less than one in one billion. As far as I know, a geologic event of that magnitude has only happened like one known time since the Pre-Cambrian.

The reason for this is there is very little opportunity for stress to build up between the plates, so in order to produce a Tsunami you would need a totally different mechanism of energy release, and I'm not even convince a super-plume would do the trick, although a super-plume would be worse in the long term for other reasons.


I hope I've settled your mind.

The collapse of the mountain in the Canary Islands, er La Palma, I think, or whatever, is far more likely than an Atlantic super-plume.
sorry for being a wally, but if i were getting ads, where would they be? i'm not trying not to get them, just that this is the first i've heard of ads on this site.
anybody know where to get coastal erosion reports for hunting island, sc?
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
349 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

PRC013-065-182145-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0433.121118T1949Z-121118T2145Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
HATILLO PR-ARECIBO PR-
349 PM AST SUN NOV 18 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
HATILLO AND ARECIBO

* UNTIL 545 PM AST

* AT 344 PM AST...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THESE
MUNICIPALITIES. RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE ADVISORY AREA AND IT CONTINUED
TO RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF AT LEAST 1 INCH IS EXPECTED THROUGH
545 PM AST.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE ELEVATED LEVELS ON
SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS...
HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK
AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1850 6661 1834 6661 1833 6671 1836 6672
1834 6680 1850 6682 1850 6677 1848 6674
1850 6667

$$

BCS
657. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:
sorry for being a wally, but if i were getting ads, where would they be? i'm not trying not to get them, just that this is the first i've heard of ads on this site.


No problem they are underneath the navigation tabs and the bottam of the page

See Neapolitan some folk don't have ad block enabled :)
www.solarham.net

Updated image by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

The large prominence that I have been reporting on this afternoon appears to be in the process of lifting off the southeast limb. This could lead to a Coronal Mass Ejection.

UPDATE: The large prominence now appears to be in the process of lifting off the southeast limb.

Image by Scott Gauer - Pennsylvania, USA




Earth scale


Hubble, Spitzer Find Most Distant Galaxy Yet Seen

By combining the power of NASA's Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes and one of nature's own natural "zoom lenses" in space, astronomers have set a new record for finding the most distant galaxy seen in the universe.

The farthest galaxy appears as a diminutive blob that is only a tiny fraction of the size of our Milky Way galaxy. But it offers a peek back into a time when the universe was 3 percent of its present age of 13.7 billion years.

Quoting Neapolitan:
...Though you'd be in violation of the rules:


If you provide data from your weather station to the Weather Underground, you are a "free" member with no ads.
Quoting Patrap:

Hubble, Spitzer Find Most Distant Galaxy Yet Seen

By combining the power of NASA's Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes and one of nature's own natural "zoom lenses" in space, astronomers have set a new record for finding the most distant galaxy seen in the universe.

The farthest galaxy appears as a diminutive blob that is only a tiny fraction of the size of our Milky Way galaxy. But it offers a peek back into a time when the universe was 3 percent of its present age of 13.7 billion years.



This was an article on the Telegraph website, here in the UK. I contributed to the comments section as kenfine, denouncing 'Big Bang' theory, and offering my own theory for galactic redshifts.

Took a bit of a pasting from 'Big Bang' believers, as usual, but I think I held my own.

Link
Quoting VR46L:


No problem they are underneath the navigation tabs and the bottam of the page

See Neapolitan some folk don't have ad block enabled :)


nope, no ads on top or bottom of this page. i'd be totally willing to ignore any ads i was requested to view, if that would help the revenues on this site, but i can't find them to ignore them. firefox? ubuntu? would they be the reason? ghostery doesn't seem to block them, and i'm not using an ad blocker that i know of.
Quoting Patrap:

Hubble, Spitzer Find Most Distant Galaxy Yet Seen

By combining the power of NASA's Hubble and Spitzer space telescopes and one of nature's own natural "zoom lenses" in space, astronomers have set a new record for finding the most distant galaxy seen in the universe.

The farthest galaxy appears as a diminutive blob that is only a tiny fraction of the size of our Milky Way galaxy. But it offers a peek back into a time when the universe was 3 percent of its present age of 13.7 billion years.



Boy, time really flies. It seems like only yesterday.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
DEEP DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
23:30 PM IST November 18 2012
=================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary near 16.0N 87.5E, about 800 km east northeast of Chennai, 500 km east southeast of Visakhapatnam and 500 km south southeast of Paradip. The system would move slowly west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken gradually during next 48 hrs.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 15.8N 86.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
18 HRS: 15.4N 85.8E - 25 knots (Depression)
30 HRS: 14.7N 84.8E - Low Pressure Area
Wow, you people can argue over anything. With all the important issues facing us, why don't you argue over whether or not your eggs should be broken on the large, round end or the pointy end? Come on, it's a good issue. I know how some of you like to "break eggs".
667. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:


nope, no ads on top or bottom of this page. i'd be totally willing to ignore any ads i was requested to view, if that would help the revenues on this site, but i can't find them to ignore them. firefox? ubuntu? would they be the reason? ghostery doesn't seem to block them, and i'm not using an ad blocker that i know of.


I saw someone said its ad free if you upload your weather station. But I also know that McAfee and AVG anti virus sometimes, block the ads on here as they dont like some of the ads . And when that warning shows up, no harm to certain people , I aint risking my computer of getting viruses and leave the ads blocked but when that doesn't happen the ads are on view .
Took a bit of a pasting from 'Big Bang' believers, as usual, but I think I held my own.


A lot of scientists don't like to admit it, but almost nobody even within the scientific community actually believes the so-called Big Bang could be the real beginning of the universe.

In some cases they don't believe in it at all, in other cases they believe it happened, but do not accept it as the origin of the universe, but rather just some sort of "change of state".

But then they end up with a problem, which is that at some point, no matter what, big bang or no big bang, the laws of physics as we know them had to change at least one time to allow a change of state, but if the laws changed then "post-dictions" of the alleged Big Bang based on present day observations are not necessarily correct, and in fact more likely to be false than true.


I've even seen stuff on the SCIENCE channel where a scientist asks a room full of masters and phd level physicists, "How many here believe there was something "before" the Big Bang?" Half the scientists in the room raised their hand, and each of them had their own mathematical formula or theory they concocted to try to explain why the BB either could not have happened, or else if it did happen there was "something" before it.


So in reality, almost nobody who actually has a degree in physics "really" believes the textbook or encyclopedic theory of the Big Bang in every detail.


You'll find a lot of people on physics sites or just news sites who'll defend it with all their heart for no apparent reason, typically hard atheists or agnostics; perhaps because they feel threatened by the fact that their pet theory is obviously not correct, and certainly not in every detail.


The BB theory (actually a hypothesis,) does not solve any fundamental questions regarding reality, and then it leaves issues such as Membrane theory, which is unprovable and untestable.

The atheist doesn't believe in God because he can't "see" him, but he is ready to believe in strings and Membranes that he cannot see or test.



To be 100% honest no theory or faith ever answers the most fundamental question, which is "Why should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"

In fact, I've never even seen anyone attempt to answer that question in earnest, because there isn't even an apparent framework of logic that is conceivably self-consistent when approaching that question.
You can become a paid member for a measly 10 bucks and its add free and you get better radar and such..
Quoting Grothar:
Wow, you people can argue over anything. With all the important issues facing us, why don't you argue over whether or not your eggs should be broken on the large, round end or the pointy end? Come on, it's a good issue. I know how some of you like to "break eggs".


Can I argue with you over what to argue about?
Quoting Grothar:
Wow, you people can argue over anything. With all the important issues facing us, why don't you argue over whether or not your eggs should be broken on the large, round end or the pointy end? Come on, it's a good issue. I know how some of you like to "break eggs".

Why are you telling us what to do? Maybe we don't want to argue about eggs! Maybe we want to argue about bread!
Quoting Grothar:


Boy, time really flies. It seems like only yesterday.


Indeed, as we did lite the fuse for da Big Bang dint' we?

: )


Quoting RTSplayer:


A lot of scientists don't like to admit it, but almost nobody even within the scientific community actually believes the so-called Big Bang could be the real beginning of the universe.

In some cases they don't believe in it at all, in other cases they believe it happened, but do not accept it as the origin of the universe, but rather just some sort of "change of state".

But then they end up with a problem, which is that at some point, no matter what, big bang or no big bang, the laws of physics as we know them had to change at least one time to allow a change of state, but if the laws changed then "post-dictions" of the alleged Big Bang based on present day observations are not necessarily correct, and in fact more likely to be false than true.


I've even seen stuff on the SCIENCE channel where a scientist asks a room full of masters and phd level physicists, "How many here believe there was something "before" the Big Bang?" Half the scientists in the room raised their hand, and each of them had their own mathematical formula or theory they concocted to try to explain why the BB either could not have happened, or else if it did happen there was "something" before it.


So in reality, almost nobody who actually has a degree in physics "really" believes the textbook or encyclopedic theory of the Big Bang in every detail.


You'll find a lot of people on physics sites or just news sites who'll defend it with all their heart for no apparent reason, typically hard atheists or agnostics; perhaps because they feel threatened by the fact that their pet theory is obviously not correct, and certainly not in every detail.


The BB theory (actually a hypothesis,) does not solve any fundamental questions regarding reality, and then it leaves issues such as Membrane theory, which is unprovable and untestable.

The atheist doesn't believe in God because he can't "see" him, but he is ready to believe in strings and Membranes that he cannot see or test.



To be 100% honest no theory or faith ever answers the most fundamental question, which is "Why should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"

In fact, I've never even seen anyone attempt to answer that question in earnest, because there isn't even an apparent framework of logic that is conceivably self-consistent when approaching that question.



Holy Moses! I won't be able to sleep tonight.
Quoting VR46L:


I saw someone said its ad free if you upload your weather station. But I also know that McAfee and AVG anti virus sometimes, block the ads on here as they dont like some of the ads . And when that warning shows up, no harm to certain people , I aint risking my computer of getting viruses and leave the ads blocked but when that doesn't happen the ads are on view .

alas, no weather station to upload, no virus blockers either cuz i forgot to install them. and i still don't get ads.

tell me what ads i'm missing out on?
676. txjac
Quoting plutorising:

alas, no weather station to upload, no virus blockers either cuz i forgot to install them. and i still don't get ads.

tell me what ads i'm missing out on?


Insurance costs and T-shirts ...win a trip for four on mapquest
677. VR46L
Quoting plutorising:

alas, no weather station to upload, no virus blockers either cuz i forgot to install them. and i still don't get ads.

tell me what ads i'm missing out on?


Reading fantastic app and the snowman TM ... LOL
678. txjac
Quoting VR46L:


Reading fantastic app and the snowman TM ... LOL



LOL ...we dont even see the same ads!
679. VR46L
Quoting txjac:



LOL ...we dont even see the same ads!


Think mine are aimed at a european market ..But now I am seeing look 10-15 years younger..uk Usernet accounts ...Public Relations ...and cheap flights
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Jedkins....I absolutely love the Florida weather... I spent a few years in South Carolina.....Now that is hot.



I agree, our summers aren't really that terrible either. the reason why is it's raining half the time anyway here during the hottest time of year. It's more of humid, than smothering heat like you see in continental areas during the summer.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Holy Moses! I won't be able to sleep tonight.


Moses has nothing to do with it.
Quoting plutorising:
anybody know where to get coastal erosion reports for hunting island, sc?


Link from here..
I like "The Big Bang Theory" on TV--Penny is cute!
Another season over, another championship lost.

The weather today was great for yard work. I think I got all the fall yard work done for the year.
685. txjac
Quoting originalLT:
I like "The Big Bang Theory" on TV--Penny is cute!


Love the Big Bang ...too funny. Have all the DVD's too!
Quoting Patrap:
www.solarham.net

Updated image by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO).

The large prominence that I have been reporting on this afternoon appears to be in the process of lifting off the southeast limb. This could lead to a Coronal Mass Ejection.


CME leaving the Sun now likely in association with that prominence:

Quoting auburn:
You can become a paid member for a measly 10 bucks and its add free and you get better radar and such..
Why would I pay money when I can get around the hurdles for free? ;)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

CME leaving the Sun now likely in association with that prominence:



Yall realize this has been happening for about as long as the Sun and Earth have existed, and worrying about it doesn't really help anyone?

It's not like we can do anything if a big one comes this way, and no, there isn't enough preparation or redundancy to maintain continuity of our civilization if we were hit by something large enough to short out say, 90% of all circuitry on one side of the planet. yeah, we'd all be in the dark ages for several years or maybe a decade or two.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Yall realize this has been happening for about as long as the Sun and Earth have existed, and worrying about it doesn't really help anyone?

It's not like we can do anything if a big one comes this way, and no, there isn't enough preparation or redundancy to maintain continuity of our civilization if we were hit by something large enough to short out say, 90% of all circuitry on one side of the planet. yeah, we'd all be in the dark ages for several years or maybe a decade or two.

Not quite sure how posting an image of it is worrying about it...
Oh look...more very heavy rain coming. Winds have been gusting to 40 mph at times.

Quoting KoritheMan:
Why would I pay money when I can get around the hurdles for free? ;)


. . . because getting around it for free is a little, well, tacky?
Quoting Bielle:


. . . because getting around it for free is a little, well, tacky?


Perhaps it is. Perhaps I simply don't care. ;)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Perhaps it is. Perhaps I simply don't care. ;)

That's nothing new...
695. txjac
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

CME leaving the Sun now likely in association with that prominence:



That is amazing!
Evening everyone. We had absolutely fantastic wx here this weekend... even the rain was pretty cool. I'm trying to upload a couple of pics if possible.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


03B is really falling apart due to high shear.
we are having a strong low pressure here in eastern north carolina from global warming aka climate change
555 indianrivguy: Stop and consider for a minute, the power of fire in an atmosphere that is 10% richer in oxygen than today.
557 JupiterKen: You have evidence that atmospheric O2 is increasing?

Referring to AussieStorm's atmospheric chart of the ancient past -- specificly the CarboniferousEra -- and not to the near past/present/future.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why are you telling us what to do? Maybe we don't want to argue about eggs! Maybe we want to argue about bread!


I disagree. :)
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

CME leaving the Sun now likely in association with that prominence:

One quick question....Are we doomed?
How could the Faint Young Sun paradox be true?

For that matter, how could the Sun be 10% less bright a billion years ago, seeing as how Earth would need to be around 20C to 25C colder than present day global average temperatures (without even counting increased Albedo)? By the time you factor in increased albedo from the extra ice from the first 20 to 25C drop from the decreased solar inputs alone, then you should get a total drop of perhaps twice that much.

The equator should have been buried under glaciers and sea ice, and most of the oceans should have been frozen from top to bottom of the water column, even miles deep.
Quoting Grothar:


I disagree. :)


Disagreeing is disagreeable, and I don't think it should be allowed... :)
Quoting Bielle:


. . . because getting around it for free is a little, well, tacky?


No it's not.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


Disagreeing is disagreeable, and I don't think it should be allowed... :)


Let's disagree to disagree.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Let's disagree to disagree.

What if I wanted to agree?
Quoting RTSplayer:


A lot of scientists don't like to admit it, but almost nobody even within the scientific community actually believes the so-called Big Bang could be the real beginning of the universe.

In some cases they don't believe in it at all, in other cases they believe it happened, but do not accept it as the origin of the universe, but rather just some sort of "change of state".

But then they end up with a problem, which is that at some point, no matter what, big bang or no big bang, the laws of physics as we know them had to change at least one time to allow a change of state, but if the laws changed then "post-dictions" of the alleged Big Bang based on present day observations are not necessarily correct, and in fact more likely to be false than true.


I've even seen stuff on the SCIENCE channel where a scientist asks a room full of masters and phd level physicists, "How many here believe there was something "before" the Big Bang?" Half the scientists in the room raised their hand, and each of them had their own mathematical formula or theory they concocted to try to explain why the BB either could not have happened, or else if it did happen there was "something" before it.


So in reality, almost nobody who actually has a degree in physics "really" believes the textbook or encyclopedic theory of the Big Bang in every detail.


You'll find a lot of people on physics sites or just news sites who'll defend it with all their heart for no apparent reason, typically hard atheists or agnostics; perhaps because they feel threatened by the fact that their pet theory is obviously not correct, and certainly not in every detail.


The BB theory (actually a hypothesis,) does not solve any fundamental questions regarding reality, and then it leaves issues such as Membrane theory, which is unprovable and untestable.

The atheist doesn't believe in God because he can't "see" him, but he is ready to believe in strings and Membranes that he cannot see or test.



To be 100% honest no theory or faith ever answers the most fundamental question, which is "Why should anything exist at all? Why not nothing?"

In fact, I've never even seen anyone attempt to answer that question in earnest, because there isn't even an apparent framework of logic that is conceivably self-consistent when approaching that question.


I am def a science girl over a god girl. But I tell my daughter, big bang is still but a theory, as they just 'don't' know. And science, until something can be proven as total fact, is just a theory. And it is impossible to prove the big bang, as there was no one there. Ok,everything's expanding outward, but that certainly doesn't mean the universe was 'created' by a big bang. Saying just cause it annoys me that some take it as fact, when it is not still.

And as for eggs...I have never noticed if I favour the bigger or smaller side! Geesh, now gonna be fixated on it when I have eggs! And about eggs, did you all know, white chicken eggs don't seem to exist in the UK? Always brown. Probably a good thing, but have always thought it odd.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Let's disagree to disagree.



So you think we should disagree?
And I think we shouldn't disagree?

In that case I agree to disagree to disagree.
694. MAweatherboy1 12:26 AM GMT on November 19, 2012


pretty much not much to say about that cyclone anymore.. =P
In that case I agree to disagree to disagree.


Excellent.
I expected nothing less.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


No it's not.


You are entitled to your view. I doubt that Dr Masters would agree, but I can really only speak for myself -as can you.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


pretty much not much to say about that cyclone anymore.. =P

Yeah, it's kind of got the Jose look going on:

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



So you think we should disagree?
And I think we shouldn't disagree?

In that case I agree to disagree to disagree.



Ya'll giving me headache.


Walking Dead. T-minus 30 mins.
Long range GFS still looking outrageous?
Why is my plus button not working!!!
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why is my plus button not working!!!

It doesn't agree with you pressing the plus button on somebody's post.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Why is my plus button not working!!!

I just checked mine and mine is working.
722. vanwx
Quoting Skyepony:


Link from here..


Thanks for that. I had been wondering about how many feet of sea level rise would lead to the abandonment of Cape Hatteras, now I see they will just bring in diesel powered sand miners. At some point Hatteras will have to give up. When is that? One or two feet of sea level rise? Do banks still loan money on property there? I don't think Sandy is the last storm.
711) And as for eggs...I have never noticed if I favour the bigger or smaller side! Geesh, now gonna be fixated on it when I have eggs! And about eggs, did you all know, white chicken eggs don't seem to exist in the UK? Always brown. Probably a good thing, but have always thought it odd.

The colour of the egg shell is dependent on the breed of the hen. In general, white hens produce white eggs and brown hens brown eggs. Up until the early 1970s, white eggs were popular in the UK, but during the late 1970s the number of white eggs began to diminish as consumers expressed a preference for brown eggs. Since the 1980s the British industry has produced almost 100 per cent brown shelled eggs, although several other countries still produce white shelled eggs. There is no nutritional difference between white and brown shelled eggs.

Source: http://www.egginfo.co.uk/faqs#54
Was thinking the other day about pple who don't believe the world was created in seven days. I find it kind of interesting that as humans we expect God to have our limitations. So it seems to us it took millions of years to get the earth to where it is today. Who says God can't do it in 7 days? Who knows what God can or cannot do? By definition God is unknowable.

This is why I think it is, frankly, stupid to try to prove or disprove science via religion or religion vs. science. It's like trying to say an apple isn't a fruit because it doesn't have a bumpy rind, sectioned centre and high vitamin C content like an orange. They're not talking about the same thing at all, IMO... and are designed for different purposes, too.

So let's have science in the wx blog.... and religion in the politics blog... ;o)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was thinking the other day about pple who don't believe the world was created in seven days. I find it kind of interesting that as humans we expect God to have our limitations. So it seems to us it took millions of years to get the earth to where it is today. Who says God can't do it in 7 days? Who knows what God can or cannot do? By definition God is unknowable.

This is why I think it is, frankly, stupid to try to prove or disprove science via religion or religion vs. science. It's like trying to say an apple isn't a fruit because it doesn't have a bumpy rind, sectioned centre and high vitamin C content like an orange. They're not talking about the same thing at all, IMO... and are designed for different purposes, too.

So let's have science in the wx blog.... and religion in the politics blog... ;o)


The Hebrew word for 'day' as used in that passage does not mean seven literal days. Besides, to scientifically hold a worldview that the Earth was created in seven actual days, you'd have to throw out of a bunch of well-supported evidence saying otherwise.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It doesn't agree with you pressing the plus button on somebody's post.
You just broke the anti-plus ban somehow, so I plussed your post... lol

Oh, and for all you agreeable people out there, I disagree in principle...

my facebook just went down.

and now it's back up. never mind.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
9:00 AM FST November 19 2012
===================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1007 hPa) located near 10.5S 170.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multispectral infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge axis in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 750 HPA. Global models have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Potential for 02F to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:



So you think we should disagree?
And I think we shouldn't disagree?

In that case I agree to disagree to disagree.


Wouldn't it just be neater and cleaner to agree to neither agree nor disagree?

Quoting KoritheMan:


The Hebrew word for 'day' as used in that passage does not mean seven literal days. Besides, to scientifically hold a worldview that the Earth was created in seven actual days, you'd have to throw out of a bunch of well-supported evidence saying otherwise.
Exactly my point. I'm not sure where the science vs. religion got started [prolly rooted in anthropomorphic tales of years long past] but making them two parts of a dichotomy is illogical. Religion is mainly faith-based and introspective, while science is evidence-based and focused on seeking external or societal verification or information.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Wouldn't it just be neater and cleaner to agree to neither agree nor disagree?

That would be boring...
Quoting MontanaZephyr:


Wouldn't it just be neater and cleaner to agree to neither agree nor disagree?


But we would still have to agree to something, and I might want to disagree to agreeing about not agreeing or disagreeing.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Exactly my point. I'm not sure where the science vs. religion got started [prolly rooted in anthropomorphic tales of years long past] but making them two parts of a dichotomy is illogical. Religion is mainly faith-based and introspective, while science is evidence-based and focused on seeking external or societal verification or information.


?
Quoting Grothar:


?


Were you agreeing or disagreeing? :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What if I wanted to agree?

I disagree with you wanting to agree.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Exactly my point. I'm not sure where the science vs. religion got started [prolly rooted in anthropomorphic tales of years long past] but making them two parts of a dichotomy is illogical. Religion is mainly faith-based and introspective, while science is evidence-based and focused on seeking external or societal verification or information.

Religion is external, focused on seeking societal dominance and validation. Spirituality is something else altogether. Kierkegaard kicked this one around a lot.
737. vanwx
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


pretty much not much to say about that cyclone anymore.. =P


I suppose the cyclone has eaten it's temperature differential out of the sea. Thanks for the posts.
Quoting PedleyCA:
711) And as for eggs...I have never noticed if I favour the bigger or smaller side! Geesh, now gonna be fixated on it when I have eggs! And about eggs, did you all know, white chicken eggs don't seem to exist in the UK? Always brown. Probably a good thing, but have always thought it odd.

The colour of the egg shell is dependent on the breed of the hen. In general, white hens produce white eggs and brown hens brown eggs. Up until the early 1970s, white eggs were popular in the UK, but during the late 1970s the number of white eggs began to diminish as consumers expressed a preference for brown eggs. Since the 1980s the British industry has produced almost 100 per cent brown shelled eggs, although several other countries still produce white shelled eggs. There is no nutritional difference between white and brown shelled eggs.

Source: http://www.egginfo.co.uk/faqs#54


Haha! Awesome! When I was a kid, my aunt and uncle had chickens and always had fresh eggs in their fridge...brown only they were...and it weirded me out as only ever saw white ones prior...until moving to the UK, and there were no white ones! So had to get used to brown eggs. The only diff I ever noticed, was I do tend to feel less...umm, eggy afterwards when having free range eggs over cheap, barn eggs. And since all are brown here, has made no difference aside from the free-range or barn ones. A shame, as am poor these days so would prefer barn ones LOL (sorry any animal rights people...but survival comes first, much as I love all animals...well, except the poisonous ones :D )
The words verify and validate have some hair on them. Mary and Webster gives multiple definitions. I think these are the relevant ones.

verify--to establish the truth, accuracy, or reality of

validate--to recognize, establish, or illustrate the worthiness or legitimacy of [more at legitimacy I think]
Quoting bappit:

Religion is external, focused on seeking societal dominance and validation. Spirituality is something else altogether. Kierkegaard kicked this one around a lot.
OK... seeing your point on this. I guess I'm thinking spirituality more so than organized religion. So my point about talking religion in the politics blog actually makes sense...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Exactly my point. I'm not sure where the science vs. religion got started [prolly rooted in anthropomorphic tales of years long past] but making them two parts of a dichotomy is illogical. Religion is mainly faith-based and introspective, while science is evidence-based and focused on seeking external or societal verification or information.
Quoting bappit:
Religion is external, focused on seeking societal dominance and validation. Spirituality is something else altogether. Kierkegaard kicked this one around a lot.
Quoting bappit:
The words verify and validate have some hair on them. Mary and Webster gives multiple definitions. I think these are the relevant ones.

verify--to establish the truth, accuracy, or reality of

validate--to recognize, establish, or illustrate the worthiness or legitimacy of [more at legitimacy I think]

Science, religion and spirituality are really separate beasts--or are they just three heads of some one beast? Edit: no reason to stop with just three.
Quoting bappit:

Science, religion and spirituality are really separate beasts--or are they just three heads of some one beast? Edit: no reason to stop with just three.
This could get deep.... lol... no need to revisit all the stuff I don't remember from college philosophy class...

I'm still trying to figure out if disagreeing with disagreeing really means I agree...
Quoting bappit:

Science, religion and spirituality are really separate beasts--or are they just three heads of some one beast? Edit: no reason to stop with just three.


Science & Religion:

One answers the how and when, the other the why and who. Both try to answer the what. Sometimes one tries to answer what is best answered by the other, causing discrepancies :)
The flesh is weak. I see scientists pulled between science more as a spiritual endeavor and science as imitating religion.

Edit: not that religion does not ever imitate science.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This could get deep.... lol... no need to revisit all the stuff I don't remember from college philosophy class...

I'm still trying to figure out if disagreeing with disagreeing really means I agree...


I was thinking the same (first course philosophy was so long ago). Fortunately, my brain got twisted up a bit more recently when I took "Philosophy of Computation" while working on my doctorate (in computer science). First time I had a course that somehow mixed history, religion, programming, computer science/theory, and physics into 14 weeks of feeling quite dumb.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was thinking the other day about pple who don't believe the world was created in seven days. I find it kind of interesting that as humans we expect God to have our limitations. So it seems to us it took millions of years to get the earth to where it is today. Who says God can't do it in 7 days? Who knows what God can or cannot do? By definition God is unknowable.

This is why I think it is, frankly, stupid to try to prove or disprove science via religion or religion vs. science. It's like trying to say an apple isn't a fruit because it doesn't have a bumpy rind, sectioned centre and high vitamin C content like an orange. They're not talking about the same thing at all, IMO... and are designed for different purposes, too.

So let's have science in the wx blog.... and religion in the politics blog... ;o)


And chaos on the peace blog! ;)
Quoting bappit:

Science, religion and spirituality are really separate beasts--or are they just three heads of some one beast? Edit: no reason to stop with just three.
Yes.

LOL. Your edit reading my mind. The beast = Humanity.

Watching Ken Burns' Dust Bowl documentary on PBS. It is really great. Truly great.
Well, when it's all over and done I think that everyone can agree that disagreement is, in fact, a subtle for of agreement, but with plausible deniability
The Coast Guard rescued two people after their boat capsized near the North Carolina coast today.

The two were in a flat-bottomed skiff that capsized near Shallotte, N.C, a Coast Guard news release said. A citizen called Coast Guard Station Oak Island at 12:15 p.m., reporting the two were in the water and wearing life jackets.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


I was thinking the same (first course philosophy was so long ago). Fortunately, my brain got twisted up a bit more recently when I took "Philosophy of Computation" while working on my doctorate (in computer science). First time I had a course that somehow mixed history, religion, programming, computer science/theory, and physics into 14 weeks of feeling quite dumb.
My last philosophy class was philosophy of science, so I really feel u on this one... I think I had 2 days of feeling like I understood everything.... lol
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


I was thinking the same (first course philosophy was so long ago). Fortunately, my brain got twisted up a bit more recently when I took "Philosophy of Computation" while working on my doctorate (in computer science). First time I had a course that somehow mixed history, religion, programming, computer science/theory, and physics into 14 weeks of feeling quite dumb.


That is the purpose of philosophy; to make you feel dumb.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Exactly my point. I'm not sure where the science vs. religion got started [prolly rooted in anthropomorphic tales of years long past] but making them two parts of a dichotomy is illogical. Religion is mainly faith-based and introspective, while science is evidence-based and focused on seeking external or societal verification or information.


I'm not talking about making them dichotomous. I'm saying that faith does not trump actual evidence. For example, in regards to the question of god (namely whether one exists or not), no, science cannot answer that. It's in the realm of the metaphysical. In the case of the Earth being created in seven days, however, we have ample scientific evidence contradicting that. In the former case, faith is acceptable since we don't actually know. The latter would be tantamount to denying the existence of anthropogenic global warming, however.
Quoting RTLSNK:


Were you agreeing or disagreeing? :)


Just confused.




This was today, when I went for a walk. We've been having some marvelous weather since Sandy passed... lots of clear skies and clouds that look extra puffy and not terribly threatening...

This last one was from last week, IIRC...



As you can see, Sandy stripped the trees of their leaves. We had brown leaves and naked trees everywhere, just like the "typical" fall / autumn of points 10 degrees of the compass north of here. Now, we've accelerated through winter and are heading back to spring as the trees try to recover their leaves.
Quoting MontanaZephyr:
Well, when it's all over and done I think that everyone can agree that disagreement is, in fact, a subtle for of agreement, but with plausible deniability


Isn't "plausible deniability" a phrase from "Independence Day"?
Quoting Grothar:


Isn't "plausible deniability" a phrase from "Independence Day"?

Well it is on right now so I will know soon.
Quoting Patrap:


True, but if the rock comes as a Big one,from above or below the ecliptic, well...there is nothing much we can do.

Save for prayer



Purdue unveils 'Impact: Earth!' asteroid impact effects calculator



Correct. There is nothing to prepare for. There is no place where you'd be safe. Even the strongest nuclear bunker would be crushed like a styrofoam cup just from the seismic shock waves.
Hmmm, y'all say keep religion and science or weather separate. But when I read the comments here I can see that some put their faith in "science" and some in "weather" and some in God. So in a sense it is not separate.
Yeah, you naysayers to get on me. But really what do you rely on to float your boat?
I used to think the Bible was not real BUT I had not read it but relied on other's opinions "who did not read it either". Pick up this BOOK. Changed me. Weather is real, science is real but so is GOD if you but look.
Quoting goalexgo:
One quick question....Are we doomed?


No, we're not doomed. We may be in for some pretty auroras though. :)
Quoting BahaHurican:




This was today, when I went for a walk. We've been having some marvelous weather since Sandy passed... lots of clear skies and clouds that look extra puffy and not terribly threatening...

This last one was from last week, IIRC...



As you can see, Sandy stripped the trees of their leaves. We had brown leaves and naked trees everywhere, just like the "typical" fall / autumn of points 10 degrees of the compass north of here. Now, we've accelerated through winter and are heading back to spring as the trees try to recover their leaves.

I remember a news story after Katrina about plants flowering in the fall. They get stressed out bad by the storm.
Quoting mitthbevnuruodo:


I am def a science girl over a god girl. But I tell my daughter, big bang is still but a theory, as they just 'don't' know. And science, until something can be proven as total fact, is just a theory. And it is impossible to prove the big bang, as there was no one there. Ok,everything's expanding outward, but that certainly doesn't mean the universe was 'created' by a big bang. Saying just cause it annoys me that some take it as fact, when it is not still.

And as for eggs...I have never noticed if I favour the bigger or smaller side! Geesh, now gonna be fixated on it when I have eggs! And about eggs, did you all know, white chicken eggs don't seem to exist in the UK? Always brown. Probably a good thing, but have always thought it odd.


A theory is supported by facts, which is why it is called a theory.

Gravity is also a theory. Electromagnetism is a theory. So on and so forth. In science, any hypothetical construct supported by facts garnered from repeatable, verifiable, testing is a theory.

In other words, theories are not some casual assumption or opinion. They are well supported ideas backed by facts and data.

Now to clarify some things. There was no "before" the big bang. The physical laws of our universe, including time, did not exist in any recognizable form until the big bang occurred. Asking what came "before" the big bang doesn't make a lot of sense from a scientific standpoint since you're literally asking what came before time.

The same goes for something "outside" our universe. There is no outside, at least not in any way that makes sense to our physical laws. There is no boundary you can cross to get "outside", and even if such a mythical boundary existed you would be annihilated as soon as the physical laws governing our universe ceased to apply.

If you want to dive in depth into big bang theory (there is quite a lot of research on the subject, and a lot of requires some pretty heavy math to understand) I suggest you grab some graduate level texts on the subject, or grab some peer reviewed research on the topic.
This system is very close to a subtropical storm. Probably won't make it though. Shear coming from the west.
Quoting TheThinker:
Hmmm, y'all say keep religion and science or weather separate. But when I read the comments here I can see that some put their faith in "science" and some in "weather" and some in God. So in a sense it is not separate.
Yeah, you naysayers to get on me. But really what do you rely on to float your boat?
I used to think the Bible was not real BUT I had not read it but relied on other's opinions "who did not read it either". Pick up this BOOK. Changed me. Weather is real, science is real but so is GOD if you but look.


You don't put faith in science any more than you put faith in gravity. Science describes the events and observations of reality.

Religion, on the other hand, does not. It based on faith, not necessarily fact. Religions can become quite divorced from reality, and as they are faith based they have no testable means.

With science, it doesn't matter what you believe. The science is still there. You're religion may tell you the Earth is flat, or it's 6000 years old, or whatever, but faith does not trump reality. Sure, people can ignore reality and fact, even willfully so, but it doesn't change reality no matter how much they might wish it so.

I won't comment on the bible other than to say you and I have very different opinions.
766. beell
"In the beginning, there was nothing. Then God said, "Let there be light". And there was still nothing but you could see it."
~Groucho Marx
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
DEPRESSION BOB03-2012
5:30 AM IST November 19 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, The deep depression over west central Bay of Bengal moved southwestwards and weakened into a depression. Depression 03-2012 now lays near 15.5N 87.0E, about 750 km east northeast of Chennai, 470 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 550 km south southeast of Paradip.

The system would move west southwestwards towards southern Andhra Pradesh and northern Tamil Nadu coasts and weaken further during next 24 hrs.
768. Hugo5
that low off the coast of SC is worth watching, it may becoming subtropical if it stays in the Gulf Stream long enough.


(° ͜ʖ ͡°)
Quoting beell:
"In the beginning, there was nothing. Then God said, "Let there be light". And there was still nothing but you could see it."
~Groucho Marx


Worthy of a Facebook post.
Quoting Hugo5:
that low off the coast of SC is worth watching, it may becoming subtropical if it stays in the Gulf Stream long enough.
I don`t think that would be the problem the shear will probably kill it imo.
Quoting TheThinker:
Hmmm, y'all say keep religion and science or weather separate. But when I read the comments here I can see that some put their faith in "science" and some in "weather" and some in God. So in a sense it is not separate.
Yeah, you naysayers to get on me. But really what do you rely on to float your boat?
I used to think the Bible was not real BUT I had not read it but relied on other's opinions "who did not read it either". Pick up this BOOK. Changed me. Weather is real, science is real but so is GOD if you but look.
There are a couple important things that I have noticed over the years on this subject. Number one, whoever coined the term " separation of church and state, science or religion " must have not been able to read. On almost every building of national pride or political significance has " In God We Trust " or some other type of religious statement, and if its not a statement, a symbol will suffice. If there is no insignia to speak of, you bet there is at the very least a bible within the confines of the establishment. The separation of church and state in my opinion is miniscule at best. Not mention that every time there is an election, one must proclaim and stand on whatever his or her beliefs are. There was a time not long ago, and even today that if you do not have the same religious beliefs as the people around you, they would shun you or kill you...Religion is for the most part mans way of justifying his causes, no matter what the cost.jmo
one thing I have known all my life Religion and Science would never be friends.
Quoting allancalderini:
one thing I have known all my life Religion and Science would never be friends.
Maybe they will both join Facebook to break the ice before GW melts all of it.
Quoting hydrus:
Maybe they will both join Facebook to break the ice before GW melts all of it.
I assure you it will be GW melts all the ice than this two subject would never be friends. its like water and ice the two are liquids but they can`t stand each other.
QLD's weekend of severe thunderstorms
Rob Sharpe, Monday November 19, 2012 - 12:19 EDT
The clean up begins with warm and sunny conditions in southeastern Queensland after a series of severe thunderstorms ripped through the area over the weekend.

Severe thunderstorms almost became normality over the weekend with multiple supercells charging across Queensland's southeast. Thunderstorms brought hail as big as cricket balls, damaging wind gusts and heavy rain leading to flash flooding. Across the weekend there was a display of around 190000 lightning strikes in Queensland.

On Saturday morning the first severe thunderstorm of the weekend hit Brisbane with thousands of lightning strikes and heavy rain leading to flash flooding. But this was just a taste of what was to come.

Later on Saturday, hail larger than cricket balls fell near Pittsworth in the Darling Downs, while other storms dumped a total of 160mm of rain on Coffs Harbour in New South Wales. By the end of the day Brisbane city had recorded 63mm of rain, while Gatton gained 96mm, its heaviest day of rain in four years.

On Sunday, thunderstorms were a feature all day with storm after storm developing and heading to the coast. During the afternoon large hail was reported in Caboolture and Beerburrum and was as large as 9cm in diameter at Boonah. Some of the heaviest rain fell in Maroochydore with 11mm falling in only 10 minutes at 3:40pm.

Brisbane failed to escape the onslaught with large hail in western suburbs and heavy rain rates of 11mm in 10 minutes at Archerfield.

Damaging wind gusts were also prevalent with storms. Double Island Point gusted to 98km/h during the afternoon, while Cape Moreton gusted to 113km/h. This weather station also recorded a staggering 29mm in just 10 minutes.

Many people are taking today's warm and mostly sunny weather as a good opportunity to clean up after significant damage was done to many people's homes and businesses. The city is expected to reach a top of 31 degrees today while the mercury should reach 34 in the west. Temperatures will drop quickly during the late afternoon as a brisk southerly change arrives.

Showers and storms are a risk in the eastern districts this afternoon and evening, however thunderstorm activity is expected to be far less widespread than over the weekend. There is a risk of severe storms today, but the risk is lower and limited to coastal regions. Brisbane and further south is unlikely to gain further severe storms. The risk of storms leaves the southeast tomorrow.

- Weatherzone
Quoting allancalderini:
one thing I have known all my life Religion and Science would never be friends.

How many scientists go to church?
Astronomers spot oldest, furthest galaxy



Astronomers using a complex system of super telescopes have caught a glimpse of what is likely the most distant, and thus oldest, galaxy ever seen - some 13.3 billion light years from Earth.
The star cluster was observed in its infancy - as it looked when the Universe was just three percent of its present age, NASA and the European Space Agency announced.
"We see the newly discovered galaxy, named MACS0647-JD, as it was 420 million years after the Big Bang" that created the Universe 13.7 billion years ago, a statement said.
"Its light has travelled 13.3 billion years to reach Earth."
Advertisement
The astronomers, grouped under the joint American-European CLASH project, use the orbiting Hubble and Spitzer telescopes as well as employing massive galaxy clusters as cosmic magnifiers to find distant galaxies.
The process, known as gravitational lensing, allows astronomers to see galaxies that emit light with a brightness weaker than that of a candle on the Moon, thus undetectable directly by telescopes on Earth.
The newly discovered cluster is so small, less than 600 light years across, that scientists believe it may still be in the first stages of galaxy formation.
Our own Milky Way is 150,000 light years across.
"The estimated mass of this baby galaxy is roughly equal to 100 million or a billion suns, or 0.1 to 1.0 percent of our Milky Way's stars," the statement said.
In September, the CLASH scientists said they had spotted the Universe's oldest and furthest galaxy, using the same technique - the previous record-holding 13.2 billion light years away.
With gravitational lensing, theorised by Albert Einstein himself, astronomers use younger galaxies that lie closer to Earth to magnify older ones lurking in the distance by bending the light they emit.
"This latest discovery has outstripped even my expectations of what would be possible with the CLASH programme," said Rychard Bouwens of the Netherlands' Leiden University, co-author of the study to be published in the Astrophysical Journal in December.


Read more: Link
Flood maps help secure insurance win
Monday November 19, 2012 - 13:03 EDT
A retired Albury resident has had his home insurance premium reduced by more than 500 per cent after he demanded up-to-date flood risk information.

Barry Pitman says an insurance representative from St George told him the new premium for his home and contents insurance would be $6,400 compared to $1,200 the previous financial year.

Mr Pitman says the company reversed its decision after he received Albury City Council's latest flood study maps, proving he was not in a flood risk zone.

"The impact for me is that my insurance will come back to a very sensible, reasonable amount, equivalent to what I paid last year, including flood insurance," he said.

"For me it's going to be of the order of just a little over $1,200."


© ABC 2012

An up-to-date flood map can save you money and also save lives.
Record low rainfall & temps in NENW in October: BoM

The Bureau of Meteorology says last month proved to be one of the coldest and driest Octobers on record in the New England North West.

The dubious honour of record lowest October rainfall went to Gunnedah, where just 3.4mm was recorded for the month.

Gunnedah's previous driest October was in 1957, when 3.8mm fell.

Nowendoc recorded 16mm during the month, its driest October since 1988.

On the temperature front, the Bureau says Tenterfield had its lowest October minimum temperature of 5.8 degrees Celsius, a touch below the previous lowest minimum, of 5.9 degrees, recorded in 1944.

Barraba was lower still, at 5.4 degrees Celsius, a good half-a-degree below its previous coolest morning of 5.9 degrees Celsius, recorded in 1968.

Not to be outdone on the high side, Mungindi recorded one of the state's average warmest Octobers, averaging 31.2 degrees Celsius across the month.


- ABC
Long Beach residents describe 'giant twister' as water spout appears at Batemans Bay

ERIN Townsend was having lunch with friends on her Long Beach balcony yesterday when the temperature suddenly dropped and the sky turned black.

Then they saw the roaring water spout about 1km out to sea.

"We just saw this giant twister with all this water swirling around in it," Ms Townsend, 27, said.

"I've definitely not seen anything like it before."

As severe storms battered the south and northeast of the state over the weekend, a water spout appeared off Long Beach, at Batemans Bay on the south coast about 2pm yesterday - lasting about 15 minutes.

Ms Townsend's friend Michael Syne took photographs of the water spout as it moved from the middle of Long Beach around the headland before breaking up.

"We had been swimming just 10 minutes before that and all of a sudden it got really cold. In that 10 minutes, it became really windy and no one was out on the beach or swimming," she said.

Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Mick Logan didn't have specific details on the size of yesterday's spout but said they can reach speeds of up to 160km/h.

He said a southerly change coupled with a looming thunderstorm created the spout.

"They're more common coming in to winter than at this time of year ... and they're still pretty rare, which is what makes this one so impressive," he said.

The Weather Channel's chief meteorologist Dick Whitaker said thunderstorms and driving rains which lashed the south coast and parts of the north coast near the Queensland border were easing overnight and today.

One house was destroyed and about a dozen others severely damaged at Woodburn, south of Ballina, on Saturday night.

The SES said strong winds that brought down power lines left about 2000 homes without power, while emergency services were called out to 120 clean-up jobs yesterday.
Bureau of Meteorology chief says super storm 'just blew up on the city'

THE Weather Bureau's Queensland chief says Saturday's superstorm didn't meet warning parameters after complaints it failed to issue timely alert - but they'll review weekend decisions.

Regional director Rob Webb said because it was an unusual event that happened early in the morning and that they didn't think it was going to be a severe event.

"It just blew up on the city," he told The Courier-Mail after the press conference.

Mr Webb said as the storm was approaching it didn't meet the Bureau's parameters for issuing a storm warning.

"You aim to put out warnings ahead of the weather but it's not always possible. The forecaster made a call that this one would stay under the parameters and pass through".

Mr Webb denied staffing was an issue and that they had six staffers on both Saturday and Sunday.
South-east Queensland residents who complained the storm took them by surprise complained on social media about the lack of warning and Brisbane Lord Mayor Graham Quirk today joined the criticism and called for a review of the bureau.
Cr Quirk said the forecasting was either a feast or a famine with few warnings issued on Saturday while dozens were issued on Sunday.

Mr Webb told ABC breakfast radio this morning he had full confidence in the team but would be reviewing the weekend's forecast decisions to learn from them.

"We review those decisions so we can learn to make best decisions for the next one. What we don't want to do is reach for the warning trigger for every thunderstorm" he said.

"We focus more attention on the point when a storm gets to the point where it gets to the point where it causes damage."

"We will go back and look at those decisions we made and we won't just be moving on. We'll be watching it closely."

Mr Webb said the Bureau watches the weather every six minutes, and would have been weighing up whether to issue a message "as the community [was] prepared already".

"There is a lot of messaging out in the community that the weather would be bad; we don't want to warn for every thunderstorm that would lead to complete complacency in the community," he said.

He said that the message he wanted to get out was that, even without the warnings from BOM, thunderstorms can be very dangerous.

"Once we are forecasting thunderstorms, people should be aware that they can change in their structure fairly quickly and really need to be keeping an eye on the environment, as well keeping an eye on our website for warnings," he said.

The Courier-Mail reported this morning that the Federal Government was warned a year ago the Bureau was "at the limit of its human capacity" to provide an extreme weather forecasting and warning service.

But it has so far provided less than $5 million in this year's Budget to boost frontline staff numbers, which have fallen by almost 42 per cent in a decade, according to an Environment Department-commissioned review of the bureau.

It is not known if staffing levels were the reason the bureau failed to issue any specific warning about the freak storm that smashed into Brisbane's inner suburbs late morning on Saturday - but calls continued yesterday for a proper please-explain.

The front of Saturday's freak storm smashed into the inner northern suburbs about 10.30am. Twenty minutes later, the bureau issued its first specific storm warning.

By then the front of the storm had passed over the inner-western suburbs and the central business district and was almost at the coast.
The Courier-Mail yesterday contacted the bureau's Queensland regional director Rob Webb direct on his mobile phone, but he referred the inquiry to a spokeswoman - who first complained about having to work on the weekend - and then reissued a statement issued Saturday.

That statement said it was "difficult to predict in detail" what would happen with particular storm cells, and that the freak event had only started to show signs of severe storm characteristics as it approached the central business district.

It said: "The Bureau of Meteorology doesn't aim to issue warnings for every thunderstorm, but uses thresholds to ensure there isn't complacency in the community due to over-warning."

That threshold includes expected winds over 90km/h, hailstones bigger than 2cm, and very heavy rainfall.

Nevertheless, following the criticism of its lack of action on Saturday the bureau was in warning overdrive yesterday - issuing dozens of warnings throughout the day as storms rolled across the southeast.

Despite nobody from the bureau being willing to talk to The Courier-Mail yesterday, Dr Richard Wardle from the bureau managed to make himself available to speak on-camera to Channel 7 last night.

Dr Wardle said: "(On Saturday morning) we were tracking the system well out to the west and Darling Downs and it just - I won't use the word exploded - but it developed rapidly over a few minutes."

Ipswich city councillor Paul Tully accused the bureau of having been "asleep on the job" on Saturday morning. He had managed to warn of the storm on his Facebook page at 10.21am - nearly 30 minutes before the bureau's warning.
Other critics inundated the bureau's Facebook page on Saturday asking why there had been no warning until after the event. The bureau did not respond to their concerns.

Weatherwatch's Anthony Cornelius yesterday said it was "unfortunate" there had been no specific warning issued, and that he would have issued a warning when it hit Gatton, just before 10am." In my opinion there was definitely grounds for that storm to be warned," Mr Cornelius said.

Jeff Higgins from Higgins Storm Chasing said the bureau's strict adherence to its warning "threshold" made it difficult for residents to be alerted in time.

The bureau came under fire during last year's floods after it failed to issue a flood warning for the hardest-hit town of Grantham until 4.16pm, more than an hour after the disaster. A second top priority flash flood warning came at 5pm.

Mr Cornelius, a meteorologist, had predicted devastating flash flooding hours earlier and at the time questioned why the bureau had failed to make a similar prediction.

Video of the lightning over the weekend.
Moe, York, Kirwan, Tenant Creek Australia's hotspots for earthquakes

MOE in Victoria, York and Kirwan in Western Australia and Tenant Creek in the Northern Territory are the regions in Australia with the highest potential for earthquakes, according to a new Earthquake Hazard Map of Australia launched today.

Seismologists from Geoscience Australia developed the map by analysing the location of past earthquakes nationwide.

Since 1950 Australia has experienced 168 earthquakes above magnitude 5.0 and last year alone, 82 earthquakes were recorded at a magnitude 3.0 or above.

The Minister for Resources and Energy, Martin Ferguson, said the map estimates the likelihood of a particular area experiencing strong ground shaking from earthquakes and it is this, rather than the magnitude of an earthquake, that endangers people, buildings and infrastructure.

The new risk map is expected to impact Australian building standards.

''Although these maps do not enable us to predict earthquakes, they will allow engineers and planners to design and locate buildings and infrastructure so as to better protect our communities,'' Minister Ferguson said in launching the map.

He also expects the modelling and data, which have been made available to the public, will be used by emergency managers, researchers and the insurance industry.



Hazard map on Google earth.
aussiestorm, what an interesting map. any idea about the circular area around tennant creek in the northern territory? it's such a bullseye.
Human minds infinite; that Jedi understanding speak to must open.

Quoting Grothar:


That is the purpose of philosophy; to make you feel dumb.


There is a rather impressive Nor'easter with low-level and convection vortices on a 400 mile stretch of the great oceanic river, the Gulf Stream of America.



Meanwhile, I'm doing some research on the sand hills of Nebraska, which very nearly became remobilized during the great Dust Bowl of the 1930's era. Paleosol studies show that the dunes (yes, the sand hills are stabilized dunes!) were active during the Medieval Warm Period, when pre-Columbian Mesoamerica was hit by a series of great droughts that vastly declined the powers of the Maya, Aztec and Anasazi (Pueblo) empires. Projections suggest that droughts will hit the area hardest in the coming decades and that the sand hills will very likely reawaken, although the interdune wetlands (home to the sandhill crane and many mammals) should survive granted that the Ogallala (an ocean of perhaps late-Miocene age water recharged mainly by glaciers) remains in its present state. The rich sandy soils of Nebraska are great for ranching and farming, and on a clear night this is one of the best stargazing fields in North America. Out to the east and south, from Wisconsin to Ohio to Louisiana, Pleistocene-age loess deposits left behind by glaciers and carried by Aeolian forces (winds) to a depth of hundreds of feet are evidence of what a reawakened sand plain can do. Perhaps one day in the not-so-distant future we'll see clouds of not only grasshoppers from Nebraska to Ohio, but sands of various colors (black from South Dakota, white from Oklahoma) carried overhead all the way to the eastern coast.

One of many research papers covering the ancient dunes

Sandhills on YouTube

If you want to contribute to my research (my assignment is due in a week) or have any feedback to this short blog clipping or have suggestions for future personal blogs I could do, please send me a tip by WU direct mail.



I've never even been to the United States.
787. zzcat
Jeff,

I know it's a weather blog, but we still need to keep the facts straight. The official dates of China's Ming Dynasty: 1368-1644.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 02F
21:00 PM FST November 19 2012
==================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02F (1005 hPa) located at 10.4S 170.E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on multisatellite imagery and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection remains persistent in the past 12 hours. The system lies under an upper level ridge axis in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends from surface to 700 HPA. Global models have picked up the system and moves it southward with further intensification.

Potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-48 hours is LOW TO MODERATE.

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
336 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012

...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WITH LARGE WAVE RUN UP AND OCEAN
OVERWASH NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH MINOR FLOODING ADJACENT TO
SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...

.PROLONGED NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING OVER THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND OUTER BANKS NORTH OF
CAPE HATTERAS. VERY ROUGH SURF AND OCEAN OVERWASH WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS.

NCZ093>095-192100-
/O.CON.KMHX.CF.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121120T0000Z/
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
336 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND.

* COASTAL FLOODING...MINOR WITH WATER LEVELS AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL...MAY REACH 3 FEET IN A FEW SPOTS.

* TIMING...THROUGH MONDAY.

* IMPACTS...AREAS ADJACENT TO SOUND WILL SEE MINOR FLOODING WITH
SOME ROADS IMPACTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY INDICATES THAT ONSHORE WINDS AND TIDES
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE FLOODING OF LOW AREAS ALONG THE SHORE.

&&

$$
Good Morning Folks..7-day for the Tampa Bay area........
Mornin' Largo!
Morning Largo.

Currently 73 here, with high expected to reach 79.

It felt hotter yesterday... but it's supposed to be somewhat overcast today, so we'll see how Nassau fares.

Enjoy your day, everybody!
Good morning Largo, I have the whole week off....Yea!
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A theory is supported by facts, which is why it is called a theory.

Gravity is also a theory. Electromagnetism is a theory. So on and so forth. In science, any hypothetical construct supported by facts garnered from repeatable, verifiable, testing is a theory.

In other words, theories are not some casual assumption or opinion. They are well supported ideas backed by facts and data.

Now to clarify some things. There was no "before" the big bang. The physical laws of our universe, including time, did not exist in any recognizable form until the big bang occurred. Asking what came "before" the big bang doesn't make a lot of sense from a scientific standpoint since you're literally asking what came before time.

The same goes for something "outside" our universe. There is no outside, at least not in any way that makes sense to our physical laws. There is no boundary you can cross to get "outside", and even if such a mythical boundary existed you would be annihilated as soon as the physical laws governing our universe ceased to apply.

If you want to dive in depth into big bang theory (there is quite a lot of research on the subject, and a lot of requires some pretty heavy math to understand) I suggest you grab some graduate level texts on the subject, or grab some peer reviewed research on the topic.


LOL yes I know, it wasn't an idle comment and am quite aware of everything backing it, but, I am hardly alone in not being convinced of the Big Bang and don't like how some scientists won't even allow speculation otherwise or other theories that have had just as much mathematical grounding (sorry can't refer to all the cases offhand)
Quoting zzcat:
Jeff,

I know it's a weather blog, but we still need to keep the facts straight. The official dates of China's Ming Dynasty: 1368-1644.



Ming the Merciless?
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Good morning Largo, I have the whole week off....Yea!


Good morning PBW.

I'm jealous. I gotta work this week but I am off on Thanksgiving. Better than nothing!
WPB!!!:)
Beautimus holiday week for West Palm Beach...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

Morning, Geoffrey.

Morning, Cody (TW13)

Morning, Doug.

Morning, Jim (Neapolitan).

Morning, Xyrus.

Morning, Jason.
G'morning back. I'm out for now gotta go to work.

Ya'll play nice now!
Good morning everyone, lots and lots of fog outside this morning. There is a dense fog advisory in effect until 11am. Should get into the 50s today and the next few days. I am going to school now, bye. I have a 2-day week this week thanks to Thanksgiving.
Morning TXPride!
Quoting AussieStorm:
Brisbane superstorms November 17-18 2012 Gallery


These pictures are awesome! Nature at its most powerful. Interesting discussions this morning - science vs religion + philosophy.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Morning, Geoffrey.

Morning, Cody (TW13)

Morning, Doug.

Morning, Jim (Neapolitan).

Morning, Xyrus.

Morning, Jason.

Morning all.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Morning, Geoffrey.

Morning, Cody (TW13)

Morning, Doug.

Morning, Jim (Neapolitan).

Morning, Xyrus.

Morning, Jason.

Hey.
Quoting BahaHurican:
This could get deep.... lol... no need to revisit all the stuff I don't remember from college philosophy class...

I'm still trying to figure out if disagreeing with disagreeing really means I agree...


It's a bit of a play on words and a bit of a manipulation of the conversation.

The typical response is "let's agree to disagree," so I jokingly typed the opposite, and said to myself, "He'll probably say 'I agree'."
Quoting originalLT:
I like "The Big Bang Theory" on TV--Penny is cute!


Ha! Yes it is a great show, I hate most tv comedies, in fact I've found most comedies in general to be stupid and unoriginal, but I like that one!
Quoting TheThinker:
Hmmm, y'all say keep religion and science or weather separate. But when I read the comments here I can see that some put their faith in "science" and some in "weather" and some in God. So in a sense it is not separate.
Yeah, you naysayers to get on me. But really what do you rely on to float your boat?
I used to think the Bible was not real BUT I had not read it but relied on other's opinions "who did not read it either". Pick up this BOOK. Changed me. Weather is real, science is real but so is GOD if you but look.


Take it to the christian forums Godboy.
Quoting BahaHurican:
Was thinking the other day about pple who don't believe the world was created in seven days. I find it kind of interesting that as humans we expect God to have our limitations. So it seems to us it took millions of years to get the earth to where it is today. Who says God can't do it in 7 days? Who knows what God can or cannot do? By definition God is unknowable.

This is why I think it is, frankly, stupid to try to prove or disprove science via religion or religion vs. science. It's like trying to say an apple isn't a fruit because it doesn't have a bumpy rind, sectioned centre and high vitamin C content like an orange. They're not talking about the same thing at all, IMO... and are designed for different purposes, too.

So let's have science in the wx blog.... and religion in the politics blog... ;o)


I agree, the Bible is for man getting to know God, not a tool to attack science, I'm saddened that people use it for that... Scientific material was left to us to discover.
Did anyone watch the documentaries on discovery and history about Sandy? Which is better? I have both recorded... Choices choices choices!
Morning Tomball, TWAx, Jedkins, all.
Xyrus2000:

I find it silly that you still cling to this thing when even some of the people who developed it no longer agree with it or believe in it.


You group all "scientists" in one lot, which is clearly misleading or misinformed.

I just got finished mentioning, there's like entire teams of scientists and think tanks that don't accept this thing as given. There's lots of logical reasons NOT to accept it at face value.

If a change of state happened, at any time or no time at all, then "running the laws backwards" to post-dict the beginning is a fallacy.

This is the most obvious flaw with the BB theory, because it contradicts itself at a fundamental, logical level.

This is exactly why scientists don't actually believe the BB was the "real beginning" even if it did actually happened. by itself, the BB theory is a self contradiction. It is only consistent if you have reference to a more fundamental "pre-existing" reality, which the scientists on the program I mentioned understood.

It's why String "Theory" was invented, and it's also why oscillating universe "theories" were invented, among other things. The problem with all of this is there is no way to observe or test any of them, just as there is no way to actually observe or test the Big Bang, whether or not it actually happened.



"Outside the universe" depends on who's definition you are using.

If you are using the classical Greek term "Cosmos" in a Greek mindset then there is no outside the "Cosmos" but the "universe" is not everything that exists.

If you are using the Judaic concept of creation, then there most certainly is something outside the universe.


If you are using the contemporary definition of the "universe" in "cosmology" then there is in most cases, believed to be something outside the universe, and many scientists have devoted their entire careers to studying the proposed mathematics governing these realities. Main problem is there is no known, existing way to test these mathematics, certainly not as they apply to other realities or to the origins of our own reality, and there may be no conceivable way to test them.



Again, you confidently talk about what "scientists" or "science" believes, and yet anybody who watches the "science channel" knows that there is virtually no consensus on the BB, even among people who spend their entire careers studying the "theory." In many cases, they have completely opposite beliefs, and both of them have a mathematical formula they're convinced proves their point.

One guy thinks the universe is caused by the collision of two Branes.

Another thinks the universe is but one of an infinite number of bubbles that are constantly forming and popping in the multi-dimensional time of a more fundamental continuum.

Another thinks the universe is oscillating and somehow recycles itself.

Another scientist even pointed out the argument I made above, which is simply obvious, if any change of state at all ever happened then we can't actually post-dict the beginning.

It's really quite ridiculous that it's taught to everyone as some sort of "set in stone, known absolute" when there's almost nothing holding it together.

We can test gravity and the concept of an atom at least; we've made nuclear bombs, so while we may never have a 100% accurate model of an atom or even gravity itself, what we have is good enough that for technological purposes at this point it never fails.

On the other hand, for the BB you have nothing except the faulty assumption that space and time were always the same...but then use that faulty assumption to "post-dict" that they weren't always the same...and then you just ignore the self-contradiction.
Good morning guys, haven't visited in a while.
Good morning!
It's 57 degrees along Central Florida east coast at 9:30 this morning and supposed to reach a high of low 70s all week. Perfect weather for this time of year imo. I hope everyone has plans to have dinner with someone on Thanksgiving. Even if it's volunteering at your local soup kitchen!

Reading The New Yorker these past two weeks shows climate change realities in much current discourse.
Nice convection.

97P


Loop


Loop
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Morning, Geoffrey.

Morning, Cody (TW13)

Morning, Doug.

Morning, Jim (Neapolitan).

Morning, Xyrus.

Morning, Jason.



Neapolitan is Jim?
Never knew that...
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Good morning Largo, I have the whole week off....Yea!
Quoting PalmBeachWeather:
Good morning Largo, I have the whole week off....Yea!
Good Morning, yeah its going to be a beautiful week here in florida huh..oh and a whole week off huh!! enjoy!!..I have my daughter and her hubby and daughter coming down for thanksgiving for a week,havent seen them for awhile so It IS a great week alright...have a great one!!
Fantastic weather here along the gulf coast today and all week they say...................
DOC...please fix this blog, server went down several times this weekend and now if I want to quote someone we have to go all the way down to do so...please DOC..fix the blog ok..Thank you in advance
822. VR46L
Quoting RTSplayer:
Xyrus2000:

I find it silly that you still cling to this thing when even some of the people who developed it no longer agree with it or believe in it.


You group all "scientists" in one lot, which is clearly misleading or misinformed.

I just got finished mentioning, there's like entire teams of scientists and think tanks that don't accept this thing as given. There's lots of logical reasons NOT to accept it at face value.

If a change of state happened, at any time or no time at all, then "running the laws backwards" to post-dict the beginning is a fallacy.

This is the most obvious flaw with the BB theory, because it contradicts itself at a fundamental, logical level.

This is exactly why scientists don't actually believe the BB was the "real beginning" even if it did actually happened. by itself, the BB theory is a self contradiction. It is only consistent if you have reference to a more fundamental "pre-existing" reality, which the scientists on the program I mentioned understood.

It's why String "Theory" was invented, and it's also why oscillating universe "theories" were invented, among other things. The problem with all of this is there is no way to observe or test any of them, just as there is no way to actually observe or test the Big Bang, whether or not it actually happened.



"Outside the universe" depends on who's definition you are using.

If you are using the classical Greek term "Cosmos" in a Greek mindset then there is no outside the "Cosmos" but the "universe" is not everything that exists.

If you are using the Judaic concept of creation, then there most certainly is something outside the universe.


If you are using the contemporary definition of the "universe" in "cosmology" then there is in most cases, believed to be something outside the universe, and many scientists have devoted their entire careers to studying the proposed mathematics governing these realities. Main problem is there is no known, existing way to test these mathematics, certainly not as they apply to other realities or to the origins of our own reality, and there may be no conceivable way to test them.



Again, you confidently talk about what "scientists" or "science" believes, and yet anybody who watches the "science channel" knows that there is virtually no consensus on the BB, even among people who spend their entire careers studying the "theory." In many cases, they have completely opposite beliefs, and both of them have a mathematical formula they're convinced proves their point.

One guy thinks the universe is caused by the collision of two Branes.

Another thinks the universe is but one of an infinite number of bubbles that are constantly forming and popping in the multi-dimensional time of a more fundamental continuum.

Another thinks the universe is oscillating and somehow recycles itself.

Another scientist even pointed out the argument I made above, which is simply obvious, if any change of state at all ever happened then we can't actually post-dict the beginning.

It's really quite ridiculous that it's taught to everyone as some sort of "set in stone, known absolute" when there's almost nothing holding it together.

We can test gravity and the concept of an atom at least; we've made nuclear bombs, so while we may never have a 100% accurate model of an atom or even gravity itself, what we have is good enough that for technological purposes at this point it never fails.

On the other hand, for the BB you have nothing except the faulty assumption that space and time were always the same...but then use that faulty assumption to "post-dict" that they weren't always the same...and then you just ignore the self-contradiction.


Can I say , this is a great post in my honest opinion, Its a well thought out argument, and yes I do believe something had to have existed for a big bang to have happened . Which is why I believe in God . Ok . I appreciate, some faiths Reject scientific theory out right but The religion I follow has found a way of being able allow Science and Religion, to co exist in theory and practice . I don't actually mean to be involved in a religious can of worms as the take I have is probably offensive to some Christian and other faiths as well as atheists . But I figured you should know that there are maybe some people out there who have no issue and agree with what you wrote.
NWS Dodge City ‏@NWSDodgeCity
Guess how much snow will fall at the Dodge City airport this season & win a NOAA wx radio! Details at: http://ow.ly/fp1Ej #kswx #contest
Good Morning, Erin, Good Morning, John-Boy, Good Morning Jim-Bob
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay
The automated weather station at Tampa Executive Airport (Vandenburg or KVDF) has had some issues and is being checked on. #flwx
Quoting AussieStorm:
NWS Tampa Bay ‏@NWSTampaBay
The automated weather station at Tampa Executive Airport (Vandenburg or KVDF) has had some issues and is being checked on. #flwx
Thx for the Info aussie
I must also mention though, that I really challenge those who so frequently use science to criticize those with a biblical philosophy. Just as I can't use the Bible to go after climate change or the age of the earth, or the structure of atoms, the same goes for using science against God as the beginning. To do so puts one in a logical fallacy. I understand when people say they are agnostic, that is, they aren't sure if a god exists, but to say you KNOW God does not exist, I really challenge you not to be so hostile, because there isn't anyway for you to prove so.

While I cannot prove through theory that God exists, that goes for any theory regarding something coming before the Universe because that object exists outside the Universe, and is in essence "bigger" than us, I came to a conclusion God exists through rational analysis of existence, everything is "designed" with incredible complexity, upon which I don't see it happening on its own. I therefore found the biblical God, to my choice, because it makes the most rational sense than other religious forms to me in regards to human social behavior and historical tendencies of man. Furthermore, while many may mock me for saying this, I have experienced God powerfully, such that only lines up with a biblical perspective on God.

Some then may ask me why would I believe in the Bible if many of the writers said things which don't make sense when compared to scientific findings today? Well, look at it this why, if the Bible is true, and God is behind it, God isn't concerned with how scientifically accurate those writers were. They were ancient peoples who had only an archaic understanding of physics and biology, and like I said, that isn't the "goal" of God in the Bible.

There are also other reasons for why I stand where I do. However, I realize it is very offensive to some here, and so I want to keep peace with all as much as possible, if anyone has any questions about the conclusions I come to, you can always pop me a personal message, I'd be glad to hold some questions on philosophy and its relationship to science :)


I only mention all this, because I'm explaining what its like from the view of one who places trust in God but is also a very scientifically minded person who is going to school to be a scientist :)

Yes its a science blog of meteorology focus, but sometimes we do stray a bit off topic, I don't see a problem with that.
Every month we seem to have an issue that endangers the world, and now we have our november scare....Its like we take 2 steps forward and 1 step back towards a major conflict.....I remember when North Korea shooting a rocket was our big problem..
Quoting LargoFl:
Thx for the Info aussie

Your welcome
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Every month we seem to have an issue that endangers the world, and now we have our november scare....Its like we take 2 steps forward and 1 step back towards a major conflict.....I remember when North Korea shooting rockets was our big problem..


Eh?
Quoting Jedkins01:


Ha! Yes it is a great show, I hate most tv comedies, in fact I've found most comedies in general to be stupid and unoriginal, but I like that one!




pop in for a moment.

Sheldon Cooper is the best sitcom character on tv IMHO.
Quoting Grothar:
Good Morning, Erin, Good Morning, John-Boy, Good Morning Jim-Bob
Good morning Brad Pitt
"...

Grist.org's Philip Bump dug through NOAA's latest State of the Climate report and discovered this nugget, emphasis his:

The average temperature across land and ocean surfaces during October was 14.63°C (58.23°F). This is 0.63°C (1.13°F) above the 20th century average and ties with 2008 as the fifth warmest October on record. The record warmest October occurred in 2003 and the record coldest October occurred in 1912. This is the 332nd consecutive month with an above-average temperature. The last below-average month was February 1985. The last October with a below-average temperature was 1976....


Link
**We can test gravity and the concept of an atom at least; we've made nuclear bombs, so while we may never have a 100% accurate model of an atom or even gravity itself, what we have is good enough that for technological purposes at this point it never fails.

On the other hand, for the BB you have nothing except the faulty assumption that space and time were always the same...but then use that faulty assumption to "post-dict" that they weren't always the same...and then you just ignore the self-contradiction.**

We can test the Big Bang theory in a super collider. The observations fit the theory rather well, too. We can see evidence supporting the big bang all over the universe. Link

There will always be something new to discover. Look at how our BB theory was developed- Einstein improved on Newton, and a group of Dutch researchers improved on Einstein's new theory and caused him to release his theory of Special Relativity. Quantum mechanics builds on what we already know via Einstein and Newton and takes a whole new twist on the way the universe runs. There will always be a young, new upstart to come along and poke a hole in your favorite theory.

I will agree- I have never been comfortable with the fudge factor of dark matter. Maybe further research will point where all this "matter" and gone. Maybe it will point us in whole new direction. Maybe the next Einstein is already conducting research with CERN, and a breakthrough discovery will be anounced next week. Who can know? That's the beauty of science- we will never know everything about the universe.


Modified to fix the link!
Quoting Grothar:
Good Morning, Erin, Good Morning, John-Boy, Good Morning Jim-Bob


Good morning, ancient venerable One.
Quoting FunnelVortex:


Take it to the christian forums Godboy.





Godboy?



Uncool.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




pop in for a moment.

Sheldon Cooper is the best sitcom character on tv IMHO.

It it true the actor is gay.
Quoting RTSplayer:
I find it silly that you still cling to this thing when even some of the people who developed it no longer agree with it or believe in it... there's like entire teams of scientists and think tanks that don't accept this thing as given. There's lots of logical reasons NOT to accept it at face value.
The fact is, the BBT is accepted, supported and endorsed by virtually ever cosmologist and theoretical physicist alive today. No, consensus does not make fact, but it does mean it's disingenuous to claim the BB theory isn't widely accepted. And it's widely accepted because a) the extant evidence corroborates it and b) no competing theory yet devised has stood up to the rigorous scrutiny BBT has.
Quoting RTSplayer:
On the other hand, for the BB you have nothing except the faulty assumption that space and time were always the same.
Nothing? How about the cosmic microwave background? How about the fact that none of the oldest objects in the known universe appear to be older than about 13.9 billion years--the time cosmology tells us the BB occurred?

Anyway, science is the province of scientists practicing empirical research; religion on the other hand, is the province of priests practicing faith. IOW, it's not science's job or goal to "disprove" any of the many elaborate religious creation myths that our species has devised. All science is tasked with doing is finding the truth of the what, where, when, and how via the well-established scientific method. Creation mythologies developed and retold over the course of centuries can often be beautiful and even comforting to those in need. But science they most definitely are not--and no one should make the mistake of confusing the two.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I understand when people say they are agnostic, that is, they aren't sure if a god exists, but to say you KNOW God does not exist, I really challenge you not to be so hostile, because there isn't anyway for you to prove so.
I'm agnostic about god like I'm agnostic about the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy: no one has yet proven that they don't exist, either. ;-)
Yes, and very funny.
Quoting AussieStorm:

It it true the actor is gay.

Quoting fireflymom:
Yes, and very funny.


Agreed. His character is very funny. It's a very funny show. We are a series behind you guys.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Did anyone watch the documentaries on discovery and history about Sandy? Which is better? I have both recorded... Choices choices choices!
Saw both last night, Sandy and the follow on about the Dust Bowl. Sandy---fair, just sort of a timeline and some videos as events unfolded in and around the NY area. If you saw the news and got updates here, you got more than last nights program. The Dust Bowl story is pretty good. Up till now I never had a good insight as to how the situation developed before the huge dust storms occurred. As always, hindsight shows us how we ignore Mother Nature and we humans think we know it all. The Dust Bowl story is a good reminder that we are pawns on this planet, the forces of Nature will win eventually.
(edit: WRT cosmology):

https://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en&q=false%20a ut hority%20syndrome
All I know is I rather leave this earth believing in GOD than to be an aethist and find out after I die that I was wrong..won't be able rectify that wrong..

Have a great day everyone! I can't do the blog with all the negativity about religion..

I hope everyone has an enjoyable thanksgiving with family and friends!
Quoting Jedkins01:
I must also mention though, that I really challenge those who so frequently use science to criticize those with a biblical philosophy. Just as I can't use the Bible to go after climate change or the age of the earth, or the structure of atoms, the same goes for using science against God as the beginning. To do so puts one in a logical fallacy. I understand when people say they are agnostic, that is, they aren't sure if a god exists, but to say you KNOW God does not exist, I really challenge you not to be so hostile, because there isn't anyway for you to prove so.

While I cannot prove through theory that God exists, that goes for any theory regarding something coming before the Universe because that object exists outside the Universe, and is in essence "bigger" than us, I came to a conclusion God exists through rational analysis of existence, everything is "designed" with incredible complexity, upon which I don't see it happening on its own. I therefore found the biblical God, to my choice, because it makes the most rational sense than other religious forms to me in regards to human social behavior and historical tendencies of man. Furthermore, while many may mock me for saying this, I have experienced God powerfully, such that only lines up with a biblical perspective on God.

Some then may ask me why would I believe in the Bible if many of the writers said things which don't make sense when compared to scientific findings today? Well, look at it this why, if the Bible is true, and God is behind it, God isn't concerned with how scientifically accurate those writers were. They were ancient peoples who had only an archaic understanding of physics and biology, and like I said, that isn't the "goal" of God in the Bible.

There are also other reasons for why I stand where I do. However, I realize it is very offensive to some here, and so I want to keep peace with all as much as possible, if anyone has any questions about the conclusions I come to, you can always pop me a personal message, I'd be glad to hold some questions on philosophy and its relationship to science :)


I only mention all this, because I'm explaining what its like from the view of one who places trust in God but is also a very scientifically minded person who is going to school to be a scientist :)

Yes its a science blog of meteorology focus, but sometimes we do stray a bit off topic, I don't see a problem with that.


Well said. I couldn't agree more. Everyone is entitled to their beliefs and to share them as long as they are civil. Def can see that there are all kinds of beliefs and they do come out on this board. Thats for sure. With that said and in lighter news. My fantasy football team did horrible this week. Have a great Monday y'all.
Quoting slinkyredfoot:
where the hell is masters and his next post?
Are you swearing? Oh no
Quoting Neapolitan:
The fact is, the BBT is accepted, supported and endorsed by virtually ever cosmologist and theoretical physicist alive today. No, consensus does not make fact, but it does mean it's disingenuous to claim the BB theory isn't widely accepted. And it's widely accepted because a) the extant evidence corroborates it and b) no competing theory yet devised has stood up to the rigorous scrutiny BBT has.Nothing? How about the cosmic microwave background? How about the fact that none of the oldest objects in the known universe appear to be older than about 13.9 billion years--the time cosmology tells us the BB occurred?

Anyway, science is the province of scientists practicing empirical research; religion on the other hand, is the province of priests practicing faith. IOW, it's not science's job or goal to "disprove" any of the many elaborate religious creation myths that our species has devised. All science is tasked with doing is finding the truth of the what, where, when, and how via the well-established scientific method. Creation mythologies developed and retold over the course of centuries can often be beautiful and even comforting to those in need. But science they most definitely are not--and no one should make the mistake of confusing the two.I'm agnostic about god like I'm agnostic about the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy: no one has yet proven that they don't exist, either. ;-)
So please explain where my 50 cents came from when I lost a tooth big shot?
Quoting slinkyredfoot:
where the hell is masters and his next post?




he wil do it when he dam ready too
Quoting ncstorm:
All I know is I rather leave this earth believing in GOD than to be an aethist and find out after I die that I was wrong..won't be able rectify that wrong..

Have a great day everyone! I can't do the blog with all the negativity about religion..

I hope everyone has an enjoyable thanksgiving with family and friends!
I believe in God. I just do not believe who some people say " God " is or what happens after we die. People who try to interpret or superimpose there view of morality, or God and the rules on how to ascend to the pastures of heaven, are at the very least are self righteous and self centered. The Ten Commandments are a logical set of rules to live by in my opinion, and can be followed with relative ease. If God created the Universe or Universes and everything in them, then the last thing I want to do is obey some mortal humans interpretation on how to save my soul from eternal damnation.
Quoting Tazmanian:




he wil do it when he dam ready too
LOL...
Models are taking the low to Bermuda.

854. yoboi
Quoting Jedkins01:
I must also mention though, that I really challenge those who so frequently use science to criticize those with a biblical philosophy. Just as I can't use the Bible to go after climate change or the age of the earth, or the structure of atoms, the same goes for using science against God as the beginning. To do so puts one in a logical fallacy. I understand when people say they are agnostic, that is, they aren't sure if a god exists, but to say you KNOW God does not exist, I really challenge you not to be so hostile, because there isn't anyway for you to prove so.

While I cannot prove through theory that God exists, that goes for any theory regarding something coming before the Universe because that object exists outside the Universe, and is in essence "bigger" than us, I came to a conclusion God exists through rational analysis of existence, everything is "designed" with incredible complexity, upon which I don't see it happening on its own. I therefore found the biblical God, to my choice, because it makes the most rational sense than other religious forms to me in regards to human social behavior and historical tendencies of man. Furthermore, while many may mock me for saying this, I have experienced God powerfully, such that only lines up with a biblical perspective on God.

Some then may ask me why would I believe in the Bible if many of the writers said things which don't make sense when compared to scientific findings today? Well, look at it this why, if the Bible is true, and God is behind it, God isn't concerned with how scientifically accurate those writers were. They were ancient peoples who had only an archaic understanding of physics and biology, and like I said, that isn't the "goal" of God in the Bible.

There are also other reasons for why I stand where I do. However, I realize it is very offensive to some here, and so I want to keep peace with all as much as possible, if anyone has any questions about the conclusions I come to, you can always pop me a personal message, I'd be glad to hold some questions on philosophy and its relationship to science :)


I only mention all this, because I'm explaining what its like from the view of one who places trust in God but is also a very scientifically minded person who is going to school to be a scientist :)

Yes its a science blog of meteorology focus, but sometimes we do stray a bit off topic, I don't see a problem with that.



great post...
Anyway, science is the province of scientists practicing empirical research; religion on the other hand, is the province of priests practicing faith. IOW, it's not science's job or goal to "disprove" any of the many elaborate religious creation myths that our species has devised. All science is tasked with doing is finding the truth of the what, where, when, and how via the well-established scientific method. Creation mythologies developed and retold over the course of centuries can often be beautiful and even comforting to those in need. But science they most definitely are not--and no one should make the mistake of confusing the two.I'm agnostic about god like I'm agnostic about the Easter Bunny or the Tooth Fairy: no one has yet proven that they don't exist, either. ;-)


Wow guy.

You're so obsessed with defending yourself against "religion" that you go off on a tangent addressing something I never even said for two paragraphs, and then you want to mix up ontology with the tooth fairy.

Try to be a little less ridiculous if you want to be taken seriously.

The BB is self conflicted regardless of whatever else or whoever else is involved in the existence of our reality.

You opened your own post with a claim which is absolutely false.

The leading scientists absolutely do NOT have a consensus.

Even people who worked on aspects of the Standard Model of particle physics believe in God, for the same reason I do. It's obscenely profane, actually quite insane, to believe that the universe, and more particularly the life on Earth, exists by chance!
To me, the notion to a self aware organic life form(human being) that if he does not believe in a creator and speak highly of that creator may cause that very same organic life form to not benefit after its death and suffer some sort of punishment as well for it is plain and simple madness. we are what we are. we are simple. our techniques have refined themselves over the last ten thousand years or so. But we are still what we have always been. Religion does have one thing right. all humans are descended from a common mother. but this is true of all successful species mutations. we can know what we know. and thats all. slowly, we can continue to adapt hopefully without killing ourselves or even worse this planet. this earth and humans really are not all that special in the grand scheme of things. quite the opposite in fact. the physical "universe" is an infinite space. and our species may one day, very very far into the future, unlock the great mysteries that we so desperatly wish to understand and on that day become something special. but until then, humankind is still rather infantile socially. we murder and we judge and we exploit and we try to convey our superiority over one another and deny the things we still are. step back and look down upon the ancestors of that one mother. 7 billion selfish little bastards running around. humankind has just begun. many many thousand years from now we will be looked upon as barbaric.
love and cooperation is what gave humans an advantage and allowed them to do so well. weve gotten away from that ideal. we will become truly special when we unite once again. and when we do, that is the time we can truly take advantage of all ouknowledge and experience. we are nowhere near that yet. we exploit the erth and all forms of life including our own. to be human and a concious being is to be ashamed in this "modern" era. the future is bright though.
I always liked this;

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy"

WS

P.S. Horatio is not on the blog.
858. yoboi
i like in DR M blog we have a pic that says pray for rain......
Here is the 12z surface analysis that shows the developing low. The question is if it will turn subtropical or tropical.

Lastnight's OSCAT

Quoting Grothar:
I always liked this;

"There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio, than are dreamt of in your philosophy"

WS

P.S. Horatio is not on the blog.
We certainly have had some wonderful and enlightened beings exist on the Earth. The funny thing is many times it is the ones who feel they will never be enlightened actually are, and the people who claim to be are not...Makes things interesting to say the least.
East Coast Stuck With Gas Rationing Indefinitely
Quoting RTSplayer:


It's obscenely profane, actually quite insane, to believe that the universe, and more particularly the life on Earth, exists by chance!


I am insane then. :) Thanks for confirming my doubts.

In all seriousness, I strongly believe that life was created by chance on this earth, just like it probably has millions of times in other places in the universe. I also believe that the Big Bang wasn't a unique event or the beginning of creation, for that matter. I also don't believe in time, to me it's just an illusion.
As you have probably guessed by now, I don't believe in anything.
Anyway, I don't think religious individuals are insane, neither should you perceive people like me as insane. ;)
Wow so we go from politics to religion in a matter of a week....lol

The most pondering single question one can make with respect to religion. Use Occam's razor with respect to the big bang.

How can you have nothing before you have something? Some outside force would have to create that moment for it to exist. Even if everything is cyclical how does that something exist without never being created?

If its one thing we can deduce from what we know now it's that to create something you need an outside force or variable. You can not create with nothing. Therefor to me something or some outside or unknown force would have had to create the process to begin with, even if its cyclic. It has to have a starting point.
TX Outlook: We're going down ship

The global factors that produced the incredible 2011 drought remain in place and in many areas of the state, while the drought of 2011 was eased it was not ended with the past spring and summer wet weather and water supply lakes especially in west and central TX remain at dangerously low levels. The failure of ENSO warm conditions (El Nino) to fully develop and support weather pattern teleconnection changes into the southern plains thus far this fall are concerning. With the overall background pattern supportive of a dry southern plains climate and this not likely to change for the next several years, a continuation of the long term drought and increased severity of drought appears at least possible this winter into next spring. Expected above normal rainfall this winter and next spring looks less likely with the failure of El Nino development and in fact the current pattern of such little rainfall over the past 6 weeks is very similar to the fall of 2010 (or the start of the 2011 drought). Given already low lake storage levels and significantly low soil moisture values over much of the state, lack of winter rainfall in 2012-2013 will have significant impacts and there is potential for severe or even exceptional drought development by spring.



Additionally, with winter freezes upon the region and the curing of fine fuels, the threat for increased wildfire activity is likely without widespread wetting rainfall. KBDI values are already above 600 in several counties with values above 700 considered critical. Vegetation health already stressed from the 2011 drought will suffer if rainfall remains on the low side prior to the onset of warmer temperatures next spring. Critical fire weather days behind cold frontal passages will be increasing if widespread rains do not occur.



Lake Storage Conditions:

Lake Buchanan: -25.07 (43%)

Lake Conroe: -3.23 (85%)

Lake Houston: -.24 (97%)

Lake Livingston: -.62 (97%)
Lake Travis: -48.26 (40%)

Sam Rayburn: -4.41 (83%)

Lake Somerville: -2.21 (84%)

Lake Texana: -1.73 (90%)

Toledo Bend: -4.28 (84%)



Total state of Texas water storage supply is at 65.97% which is down from 68.10% a month ago and 77.68% 6 months ago
.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Xyrus2000:

I find it silly that you still cling to this thing when even some of the people who developed it no longer agree with it or believe in it. [etc]


Hmm.

I am a professional astronomer 'in training' and I can tell you that the overwhelming majority of astrophysicists 'believe' (I prefer to say we 'accept', because belief implies a lack of supporting evidence) the Big Bang theory, particularly the Lambda-CDM model of cosmology with a Hot Big Bang as its origin. The leading alternative was the Steady State theory, which was effectively discarded many decades ago. There is no other model for the universe's creation and evolution that even remotely agrees with observations.

The idea that the Big Bang started from nothing is an extremely common misconception. The Big Bang theory makes no such claim and in fact makes no claims about the nature of the exact moment of the event itself, let alone 'before' it. What it discusses is how the universe evolved since its formation, from the present day all the way back to less than a microsecond after the first instant (which is pretty dang impressive if you ask me). The reason we can't go back any further is because it would require an understanding of quantum gravity which we do not yet have. (Quantum Mechanics and General Relativity are by themselves extremely powerful theories, but they don't work well together). String Theory is one of the current lines of thought that may resolve the incompatibility of QM and GR, though I do not study String Theory specifically.

As for 'lack of evidence', I suggest you actually pick up an astronomy textbook or start reading some scholarly articles. Evidence for the Big Bang includes Hubble's Law, the Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation, the observed evolution of structure in the universe, and the observed abundance of elements in the universe. These are all explained beautifully by the Big Bang theory, and thus far no other theory can.

We do not like to say 'proof' in science, but if you must insist on 'proof' then the CMBR alone would probably be satisfactory. It is the remnant radiation field from the era of Recombination, when the primordial plasma had finally cooled and expanded enough to form the first atoms and the universe turned transparent. This happened about 300,000 years after the Big Bang, or when the universe was about 0.002% of its present age. Look up some studies of the WMAP mission data if you are interested in learning more.
Quoting RitaEvac:

Stay on topic, Rita.

Thanks!
Quoting hydrus:
We certainly have had some wonderful and enlightened beings exist on the Earth. The funny thing is many times it is the ones who feel they will never be enlightened actually are, and the people who claim to be are not...Makes things interesting to say the least.


They are so few, we can actually name them.
its simple really. the potential for what we know as the universe has always been there. and time itself is multi-dimensional. its either that or the belief that there was nothing and then something created it. the "potential" has always been there. and it always will.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Did anyone watch the documentaries on discovery and history about Sandy? Which is better? I have both recorded... Choices choices choices!


I watched them both, as well another documentary on Ch. 13 by NOVA. IMO, they were all excellent. Discovery had more home video footage. History had more personal accounts. I'd watch both.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting RitaEvac:
TX Outlook: We're going down ship

The global factors that produced the incredible 2011 drought remain in place and in many areas of the state, while the drought of 2011 was eased it was not ended with the past spring and summer wet weather and water supply lakes especially in west and central TX remain at dangerously low levels. The failure of ENSO warm conditions (El Nino) to fully develop and support weather pattern teleconnection changes into the southern plains thus far this fall are concerning. With the overall background pattern supportive of a dry southern plains climate and this not likely to change for the next several years, a continuation of the long term drought and increased severity of drought appears at least possible this winter into next spring. Expected above normal rainfall this winter and next spring looks less likely with the failure of El Nino development and in fact the current pattern of such little rainfall over the past 6 weeks is very similar to the fall of 2010 (or the start of the 2011 drought). Given already low lake storage levels and significantly low soil moisture values over much of the state, lack of winter rainfall in 2012-2013 will have significant impacts and there is potential for severe or even exceptional drought development by spring.



Additionally, with winter freezes upon the region and the curing of fine fuels, the threat for increased wildfire activity is likely without widespread wetting rainfall. KBDI values are already above 600 in several counties with values above 700 considered critical. Vegetation health already stressed from the 2011 drought will suffer if rainfall remains on the low side prior to the onset of warmer temperatures next spring. Critical fire weather days behind cold frontal passages will be increasing if widespread rains do not occur.



Lake Storage Conditions:

Lake Buchanan: -25.07 (43%)

Lake Conroe: -3.23 (85%)

Lake Houston: -.24 (97%)

Lake Livingston: -.62 (97%)
Lake Travis: -48.26 (40%)

Sam Rayburn: -4.41 (83%)

Lake Somerville: -2.21 (84%)

Lake Texana: -1.73 (90%)

Toledo Bend: -4.28 (84%)



Total state of Texas water storage supply is at 65.97% which is down from 68.10% a month ago and 77.68% 6 months ago
.
Maybe Texas will get some rain next tropical season? That is plan b without El Nino, Happy Thanksgiving early to all from bone dry southcentral Texas where we should be in 80s and humid most of this week.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Try to be a little less ridiculous if you want to be taken seriously.
Wow, guy. You're so obsessed with defending your superstitious beliefs that you go off on an ad hominem tangent. ;-)

The thing is, I believe in that which empirical science explains. That's my right. Others choose to jettison part or all of that science, and instead go with that which is based on nothing more than ancient superstition, legend, and myth. That's their right. But answer me this: which of those sides deserves to be "taken seriously"?
Quoting ILwthrfan:
Wow so we go from politics to religion in a matter of a week....lol

The most pondering single question one can make with respect to religion. Use Occam's razor with respect to the big bang.

How can you have nothing before you have something? Some outside force would have to create that moment for it to exist. Even if everything is cyclical how does that something exist without never being created?

If its one thing we can deduce from what we know now it's that to create something you need an outside force or variable. You can not create with nothing. Therefor to me something or some outside or unknown force would have had to create the process to begin with, even if its cyclic. It has to have a starting point.


Some scientist suggest that "nothing" needs to be redefined, in that nothing might be something. My definition would be that nothing is the absence of everything except the nothing.
876. VR46L
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, guy. You're so obsessed with defending your superstitious beliefs that you go off on an ad hominem tangent. ;-)

The thing is, I believe in that which empirical science explains. That's my right. Others choose to jettison part or all of that science, and instead go with that which is based on nothing more than ancient superstition, legend, and myth. That's their right. But answer me this: which of those sides deserves to be "taken seriously"?


Actually everyone has a right to their opinions and beliefs in my opinion ...