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Lesser Antilles wave a threat to become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:23 PM GMT on August 09, 2006

A tropical wave moving westward at 15-20 mph near 13N 57W, about 300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands, has made a significant comeback this morning after losing its spin and most of its heavy thunderstorm activity last night. The system has re-gained its spin, and a new blow-up of intense thunderstorms has developed over the circulation center. It remains to be seen if the storm can hang onto this thunderstorm activity; 10-20 knots of wind shear are still interfering, and this system has had a history of alternately looking organized, then disorganized, as the shear waxes and wanes. Strong upper-level westerly winds from an upper-level low pressure system to the north are responsible for this shear, and this low is expected to continue to bring significant amounts of shear over the system for the next two days. It is possible that the shear may weaken enough to allow a tropical depression to form in the next day or two, but it will be a struggle for this system to get organized. Pressures are falling at the two buoys about 100 miles to the north of the storm's center, though, and peak winds at 9am EDT at one of these buoys was a sustained 28 mph. We don't have a recent QuikSCAT satellite pass to judge the winds that way, unfortunately. There are the beginnings of some upper level outflow apparent on satellite imagery, but no real low-level spiral banding occurring yet.

The wind shear is greatest to the system's north, so the further south it stays, the more likely it is to develop. The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) of very dry air is 100-200 miles to the system's north, which is probably far enough away that it will not impact it over the next day or two.

Last night's GFDL model predicted that the wave will develop by Thursday into a weak tropical storm, which will move through the Caribbean Sea to a point south of Haiti on Saturday, where high wind shear will dissipate it. None of the other computer models develop the storm at all.

The wave should move through the Lesser Antilles Islands tonight and Thursday morning, bringing winds of 30-40 mph and heavy rain to Barbados, St. Lucia, Martinique, and surrounding islands. Puerto Rico may get socked on Friday with these conditions, and the Dominican Republic on Saturday. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the wave today at 2pm EDT today, and I'll have an update this afternoon on what they find.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for the mid-Atlantic tropical wave.

Elsewhere in the tropics
Clouds and showers stretching from the Bahamas through South Florida are associated with an upper level low pressure system. High wind shear, dry air, and cool air temperatures are expected to keep this area from developing. A broad non-tropical low pressure system located about 800 miles southwest of the Azores is drifting southward, and is not expected to develop over the next two days. Some of the computer models are forecasting that development is possible by Sunday or Monday, though.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

GUYS HERE IS A REAL CLOSE VIEW OFF 91L



It just looks like it is being sheared off to the east. That's why I asked this question earlier.
I dont know, if its a depression or not, but i wont say it looks like hell....Its looking its best all day.
so nash why do u say it looks like hell?
Will we have a TD by 2
what is your guesses
its kl
508. Daveg
Thanks jp....

Of course, here in Texas we could use the rain, so I probably wouldn't worry about it, even if it DID develop. =)
Hey, if I am wrong then I am wrong. I have no problem missing something here. Still learning and sometimes the visible presentation looks worse than it actually is.
I think it looks darn good! Better now on the visible than anything before.
Guys...its mostly a midlevel circulation....the 1000mb on the nrl site is by error...its 1010mb.....there is a tight weak ciculation at the lower levels..but not sure if there is any west wind......recon will finish up and tell us this soon.
Ok, my eyes are deceiving me. Thanks for the input.
If you look at the darker clouds in the satalite above you will see a strong rotation and an eye like feature
URNT11 KNHC 091731
97779 17304 40129 58200 03100 11029 25178 /0010
41010
RMK AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 07

1010mb, surface E at 10 knots
flight level ESE at 29 knots
TD at 5pm...is what i'm thinking...If it does not, just continue to watch until it dies.
you have td conditions now. whether they last is the question.
It is looking rough. Models are probably right on again. Those that say they can see circulation...Really? I'm missing it and I also can't seem to find the strengthening that is being noted on many of these posts.
SXXX50 KNHC 091733
AF302 01DDA INVEST HDOB 15 KNHC
1723 1254N 05836W 00310 5003 153 006 234 216 008 00316 0000000000
1723. 1254N 05835W 00308 5004 141 010 234 218 010 00313 0000000000
1724 1254N 05833W 00308 5005 141 010 230 224 011 00313 0000000000
1724. 1254N 05832W 00308 5006 129 009 232 218 010 00311 0000000000
1725 1253N 05830W 00308 5007 120 012 240 208 013 00311 0000000000
1725. 1253N 05829W 00307 5008 113 016 248 192 016 00309 0000000000
1726 1253N 05827W 00310 5009 110 016 244 192 016 00310 0000000000
1726. 1253N 05826W 00308 5009 109 015 240 198 016 00308 0000000000
1727 1253N 05824W 00310 5009 107 014 234 210 015 00310 0000000000
1727. 1253N 05823W 00307 5009 105 012 232 216 013 00307 0000000000
1728 1253N 05821W 00309 5010 114 014 234 212 015 00309 0000000000
1728. 1253N 05820W 00309 5010 113 014 234 214 015 00308 0000000000
1729 1253N 05818W 00309 5011 110 015 234 210 019 00307 0000000000
1729. 1253N 05817W 00307 5012 111 020 238 204 021 00304 0000000000
1730 1253N 05815W 00308 5014 111 025 242 192 027 00304 0000000000
1730. 1253N 05814W 00309 5015 110 029 250 172 029 00303 0000000000
1731 1253N 05813W 00307 5015 109 029 254 162 030 00302 0000000000
1731. 1253N 05811W 00310 5015 108 028 252 162 029 00305 0000000000
1732 1253N 05810W 00308 5014 104 026 248 168 026 00304 0000000000
1732. 1253N 05809W 00309 5013 097 024 248 166 025 00306 0000000000
thing is dying - and its about to encounter major dust soon

looks like another dead invest :-/

the winds is not the problem just the Closed Circulation "is their one" is the question
Nasty ass blow up of convection on the western side on 91L just in the last hr or so.
Fast-moving systems have difficulty closing a circulation, and are especially susceptible to wind shear. There are many examples of an impressive-looking disturbance moving at 25 MPH which falls apart 12 hours later.

It needs to slow down.
We will see if 91L decides to take its clothes off like chris did.
jp already said its not moving 25mph
By the way, go here for decoded recon reports (on the tropical page).
Apparently recon only found 10kt surface winds at best. That is not a TD. Or are they not done yet?
hurricane23 is just ripping those images off of peopel in Storm2K



link to thread here:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=87995&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=20
91L seem to have slowed down a bit since 10 or 11am..........
Slowed intensity wise or in speed 456?


looks to me the "COC" is due east of barbados???
look at the huge low coming off of africa.link
Their are not done and they are nearing the supposed circulation
Nice shot Thel!
No dust around here. Circulation clearly evident. weather conditions deteriorating. Difficult for anyone to say unless you are on the leading edge now.
tshizzle...I pointed that out several posts back...he chose to ignore it though...I let Windrunner on S2K know...he'll handle it.
Hurricane23 is just providing us with information, why the hell are you bitching about it and reporting it to someone on another post. My god grow up.
nash28 at 1:25 PM EDT on August 09, 2006.
My dogs farts put out higher gusts than that.


Perhaps you should consider changing his food.

Anyway, what's the status of the "tropical wave" that's supposed to hit south Florida today?
hazmat - i didnt see ur post, but yea definetly just gettin them from there

also, that S2K forum is ALOT freaking nicer looking/better functioning than this sloppy blog post deal. and seems to be less kids on there talking up storms that dont exist

i gotta start hanging out there more often =)
the low on my link is just becoming visible on the far east side of the map.
During reconnaissance of tropical system INVEST a maximum sustained wind speed of 33 mph at 1014 feet, and a maximum wind gust of 34 mph at 1007 feet, were found by the government plane.

Time (Z) Lat Lon Altitude Dir Speed Gust Temp Dewp
17:23:30 12.9 -58.58 1011 141 12 12 74 71
17:24:00 12.9 -58.55 1011 141 12 13 73 72
17:24:30 12.9 -58.53 1011 129 10 12 74 71
17:25:00 12.88 -58.5 1011 120 14 15 75 69
17:25:30 12.88 -58.48 1007 113 18 18 77 67
17:26:00 12.88 -58.45 1017 110 18 18 76 67
17:26:30 12.88 -58.43 1011 109 17 18 75 68
17:27:00 12.88 -58.4 1017 107 16 17 74 70
17:27:30 12.88 -58.38 1007 105 14 15 74 71
17:28:00 12.88 -58.35 1014 114 16 17 74 70
17:28:30 12.88 -58.33 1014 113 16 17 74 71
17:29:00 12.88 -58.3 1014 110 17 22 74 70
17:29:30 12.88 -58.28 1007 111 23 24 75 69
17:30:00 12.88 -58.25 1011 111 29 31 76 67
17:30:30 12.88 -58.23 1014 110 33 33 77 63
17:31:00 12.88 -58.21 1007 109 33 34 78 61
17:31:30 12.88 -58.18 1017 108 32 33 77 61
17:32:00 12.88 -58.16 1011 104 30 30 77 62
17:32:30 12.88 -58.15 1014 97 28 29 77 62
546. IKE
No sense in anyone jumping to any conclusions...the plane hasn't even made it to the aest side yet.
with your attitude tshitzle you'll get banned from there too
NaplesPatty...LOL...probably why he is here!
550. IKE
*east*

Some of these posts on here read like there made by kids or someone wanting a cat 10 to destroy planet earth.
how much longer until they are done and report if it is or isnt a td?
tshizzle let me ask you somethin. If you dont like it here then why do you bother even coming here to post?
well to tell you what i think i think he goes there and reposts stuff in here so he us just as guilty>>>>my 2cents
Guys need to relax until the plane make the full recon of the ENTIRE system. They've checked out the NW and SE quadrants and now they are getting close to the circulation...Let them get finished before jumping to any conclusions.
And by the way 23 is doing a fine job letting everyone know what is going on with the storm. Hell we all post pictures and comments all the time and we dont get childish and cry that we got it off of another site. Grow up and shut up unless you have something productive or informative to say.
Still holding to some convection....


Should edit my post and say i meant NW and SW quad of storm...=/
totally agreed Brandon.
there is a good sized low just entering the picture in africa. it looks pretty intense.
just my thought.link
Atually its from a suscribetion.....To many little kids on here.
I just watched Rich Johnson on TWC. For the second straight update he stated that the combination of an ULL and the wave can produce impressive convection, but no development is expected! What universe are they living in? They have the same info we do. Am I to believe they are not aware there is a recon in the system?
could be a TS by 5 i think!
To many little kids on here. LOL!!
Well said Ike about kids and cat 10's. And it does get old....and boring...and kind of sad. They obvioulsy haven't had to pick up their scattered stuff before.
Hi thelmores,

The COC would be further to the west near the higher cloud tops. What you're looking at is does look like it could be an eye type feature, but it's definitely not.

I don't care where it's from....keep working man!
tshizzle

23 you've been found out! hahahahahahha!

Oh the shame, the shame!
23: I am much appreciated by all the work you are doing for all of us. Just incase no one else tells you this, THANK YOU!!!!
the WEATHER CHANNEL just said no develoment is expected? i do not understand that at all. do they have any idea that the recon is in there?
573. IKE
I appreciate the updates from the recon too. I don't care who you get them from.

Well TWC at times can just go to Hell or something...I dunno sometimes they're informative and sometimes they're not.
i second that IKE
me too keep them coming
I'm just glad I'm one of the people that actually knows better. :)
579. IKE
TWC has become almost clueless.
rich johnson is a dumbass, and never takes anything seriouisly. He is optomistic even when disaster approaches( something like katrina even).
me and hurricane23 are different, im hurricaneMAN23 and hes just hurricane23
Some of guys are incredible on here...School starts soon so iam not worried about it.
585. IKE
Did they even mention the recon?

They use to have reports....like we're getting here.
Great job with the updates guys and gals. Thanks for the pics Hurricane23, Weather456, MichaelSTL and anyone else who posts them. Very helpful
It's like a standoff in here....

"It's got a chance!"
"No it doesn't!"
"Yes, it does you idiot!"
"No, that's NOT a closed off center!"

*headdesk*
School starts soon so iam not worried about it.

I can't wait!
590. IKE
Posted By: Randrewl at 1:03 PM CDT on August 09, 2006.
School starts soon so iam not worried about it.

I can't wait!


Amen...can't wait.
23, just ignore them....I think they are jealous of you.
This system is mainly a Midlevel Circulation that happens with interaction with a upper low.......example is just east of florida..people saw some turning...and it was cause be the upper low inthe gulf....this happens all the time....the convection looks nice...the turning looks nice...but its not all at the surface.....pressures are 1010mb...if this is a depression..its weak.... NOW BACK TO WORK!!!!
ey guys

can someone help me

cause java sucks and firefox doesnt work good with it i'm trying to save the pictures as images one every half hour but this is a hell of a job does someone has a automatic http downloader that saves the image in the specific folder but also renames it as number 2 so i can still see it as a loop

dont know if there is any software like this but if someone of u know it i appreciate it if u would tell me
lol @ Storm2K post now:

NOTE: These images are NOT to be used without the expressed permission of the creator, myself.
Permission is granted to use freely within the Storm2k.org domain.
Just to let everyone know, the Google Earth maps are mine and are intended for use on Storm2k.org and Midatlanticwx.org ONLY. I would prefer any use of the images here be in the form of a link to the Storm2k thread or Midatlanticwx.com page. Thank You!
WindRunner
What does "23" stand for? For both of you >.>
597. IKE
Posted By: scottsvb at 1:04 PM CDT on August 09, 2006.
This system is mainly a Midlevel Circulation that happens with interaction with a upper low.......example is just east of florida..people saw some turning...and it was cause be the upper low inthe gulf....this happens all the time....the convection looks nice...the turning looks nice...but its not all at the surface.....pressures are 1010mb...if this is a depression..its weak.... NOW BACK TO WORK!!!!


What ULL? There isn't one around 91L. NONE!
what does the 205 discussion say?
Cantore and Lyons art the only 2 I trust on TWC. They seem like genuine people. I have to say that Christina Abernathy has come a hell of a long way from when she first started. I swear I would turn the channel because her broadcasting was horrific, gotten better through the years.
lebron james for me
The weather channel does not give a flying f--- until a system is passed 60 and possibly looking to affect PR andmainlan USA. Brandon C well said. The hunters will verify the status of this TD. Living at 59 and 13.1 we alwys hear last minute.
keep up the good work hurricane23. I appreciate it very much, even if i am still in school and have no idea what im talking about. but still, i do enjoy the updates.
Link. Link. Link.
it hasn't come out yet hurricaneman23
Hi hurricaneman23,

No development is expected because 91L is moving into an area of higher sheer and slightly higher pressure. Cheers.
about the images 23 has been posting of google earth.....

from the storm2k site:
"NOTE: These images are NOT to be used without the expressed permission of the creator, myself.
Permission is granted to use freely within the Storm2k.org domain."

so if you want to "use" these images, get permission! ;)
someone please change TWC's diaper and give them some pull-up pants
IKE, what do you mean TWC almost clueless. They are totally clueless.
Just link them instead. Respect other sites.
check this out. its a good link.
LOL, TWC isn't clueless. IMHO, they're dead on with 91L.
My goodness....LOL!
tshizzle...thought that was funny myself...he said he'd look into & I guess he did.

Everybody here asked where & how he did the images...now you know. Nothing wrong with it but you must 1st get permission & most importantly give credit where credit is due.

Of course he's not the only one on here who engages in plagarism...give these people on S2K & CFHC credit for their forecasts & insights people. I realize to those on here who don't know any better they look at you as having all this knowledge & it boosts your egos that strangers in cyberworld think you are the all knowledgeable weather guru...those that know though realize the truth & will not hesitate to point it out.

As a matter of fact that's what I get paid...answer the inevitable question that will follow this post asking what business of it is mine. That's exactly what it is...my business.
hey guys
for what it's worth, it appears to me that there is a coc at the southern part of the convection, which is weaker than the convection in the NW quadrant that seems to be getting blown away(as usual lately)the milder convection at the south end appears to be withing the coc - just my 2 pennies
so all we have so far is 20knots????? wtf! LOL
at least give credit to the website you get it from!!
Barbados1, they don't really give a damn about PR either. All they say about us is "If you have plans for the Caribbean, you should check with your agent first or call the airlines as weather in there could get bad really soon". That's it. Of course, after the hurricane wipes us from the map, they'll come and collect a couple of pictures and video and show it, but that's about it.
Guys so far nothing yet from recon...They are having a hard time finding a closed circulation.
Unfortunately, some of the new guys on here think they are slick this year. That has been a rule on here with WU that you arent suppose post images that are copyrighted from another sight. That has been expressed several times by Aaron and Dr. Masters. I guess we dont listen.
i like your name, STSUCKS!
lol
Still no closed coc huh?? Damn.
yeah tornadodude...its the truth..he does!!
No nash nothing yet.
...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KT. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. A SURFACE
LOW HAS BEEN REPLACED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N55W DUE TO THIS
BURST ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SPIRALING CYCLONICALLY INTO
THE SYSTEM
Gulf all that tells me is that they still haven't finished Recon with the storm as you will see that it says a plane will be doing recon on the storm this afternoon which is what it said this morning.
i think that all the people who bash this site are jealous of us because ours is better.lol. just my 2 cents worth
nothing new really in the 205,
has the recon sent any new data?
when can we expect an update?
hopefully prior to 5:30....mmmmph!
...Special feature...
A strong tropical wave located about 195 miles east of the
Windward Islands is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated this
morning...and an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
reach the system this afternoon to determine if a tropical
depression or storm has formed. Regardless of tropical cyclone
development...the system will spread showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds to tropical storm force in squalls over
portions of the Lesser Antilles later today and tonight.
Numerous moderate/isolated strong convection is approaching the
Windward Islands from 11n to 16n between 56w and 61w. A surface
low has been replaced on the wave axis near 13n55w due to this
burst along with low cloud motions spiraling cyclonically into
the system.
OK - I think we all got the Special Feature bulletin now...
Let's not forget TWC's recent ad campaign that shows montages of their mets talking and walking on the beach about how they should be trusted more than local meterologists.
LOL...
Images may be used without copyright licenses when for educational purposes, only when using material that is not your own for profit are you infringing. Also, most of the maps have the site on them, which also puts you in the clear. Read up on intellectual property.
OOOOOOOOOOk and where did that come from?
raindancer,

I didn't. I need to see it one more time for good measure.
Thank you for the copyright information StoryOfThehurricane, although it was totally random.
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 2:13 PM EDT on August 09, 2006.
Unfortunately, some of the new guys on here think they are slick this year. That has been a rule on here with WU that you arent suppose post images that are copyrighted from another sight. That has been expressed several times by Aaron and Dr. Masters. I guess we dont listen.
you "MAY" be able to use images without violating any copyrights.... but common courtesy applies here..... if its not your own work, state that.....

many times over the last month, these google images have been posted with people asking "where did you get that?" that was the time to come clean..... not weeks later....

no big deal, just post a link, or at least give credit, where credit is due.....

Just saw Key Largo last night; Lauren Bacall stuck in a hotel during a hurricane with a bunch of hooligans! Those that post heavy profanity should be expelled immediately.
Posted By: thelmores at 6:05 PM GMT on August 09, 2006.
about the images 23 has been posting of google earth.....

from the storm2k site:
"NOTE: These images are NOT to be used without the expressed permission of the creator, myself.
Permission is granted to use freely within the Storm2k.org domain."

so if you want to "use" these images, get permission! ;)
see yall later. i gotta go
good point thelmores..hurricane23 was posting it like it was his own work..just like when they were talking about the planes being backwards he said my bad guys...like it was his work
what makes that random severweatherfreak?
any thing new with in the last 2hrs or so?
thelmore doesnt even own the rights to copyrighted material he is trying to pass off as his own, THAT is illegal
i don't want to slam 23..... just saying that common courtesy applies! ;)
Guys check out thiss close image of 91L...


Who gives a rat's ass about where it came from...if it helps us and is informative, just do it...quit whining and bickering about it like kids and stuff. 23 does GREAT work no matter where he gets it from. Stop bashing him and others that post pictures.
Hey 23 - Don't be effected by ignorance. There is no one here that has a C-130 Hurricane Hunter, satelite, buoys, or a ship to have exclusive info from. Of course you use shared info. By the way, I do believe you have posted links to everyone for the same info. Carry on.
"thelmore doesnt even own the rights to copyrighted material he is trying to pass off as his own, THAT is illegal"

dude, wtf are you talking about! LOL
cajunkid that is a good link as it shows the dry air moving away allowing the storm to develop more storms on the NW side. Looks as if the dry air is slowly moving away allowing the convection.
Random because it was the topic of conversation oh....about 20 minutes ago. Drop it already.
well thelmore, as long as those satellites taking the pictures in space don't belong to you, neither do the images
Wow yeah look at that...clearly a tightening spin in there. We just need to get some good convection to cover that center and we're talking rapid intensification.
Who gives a rat's ass about where it came from...if it helps us and is informative, just do it...quit whining and bickering about it like kids and stuff. 23 does GREAT work no matter where he gets it from. Stop bashing him and others that post pictures.

Well, it still is nice to properly credit someone! ;)
Posted By: quakeman55 at 1:30 PM CDT on August 09, 2006.
Who gives a rat's ass about where it came from...if it helps us and is informative, just do it...quit whining and bickering about it like kids and stuff. 23 does GREAT work no matter where he gets it from. Stop bashing him and others that post pictures.

well if he gets it from some place else..dont pass it off as your own work..give credit to the site you got it from!!
still no idea if its a depression huh?
hurricane23 is that a eye i see?
Hurricane23 is CHRISTY? Oh that's rich if true. Being banned from S2K for doing the SAME thing with Dr Masters work over there didn't teach you a lesson?
""thelmore doesnt even own the rights to copyrighted material he is trying to pass off as his own, THAT is illegal"

ok, let me put out my disclaimer.....
I HAVE NO WEATHER DEGREE....
ANY IMAGE I POST IS NOT MY IMAGE
ANY THOUGHT THAT I HAVE IS BORROWED
I OWN NOTHING!!!!

there..... that should cover it! LOL
Usually copyrighted images will have a copyright or something showing where they're from on the image itself.
as long as its used for educational purposes it is, if somebody had copyrighted images on a site that charged a fee or they took credit for it then it would be infringement
great graphics canjunkid, thanks
Oh Taz you know better than that; don't pretend like you don't. It's a "sucker hole."
MY GOD PEOPLE JUST FRIKIN DROP IT ALREADY. ITS DONE AND OVER WITH, SO JUST MOVE ON AND GET BACK TO THE REASON WE ARE ALL HERE. GROW UP
doesn't matter if they have the copyright symbol there or not, if it's been sent in to the copyright offices that's all they need to do.
Hurricane23 is CHRISTY? Oh that's rich if true. Being banned from S2K for doing the SAME thing with Dr Masters work over there didn't teach you a lesson?

I believe so. ;)
Goodness... Copyright 101? Blog Bashing 210? Or is this a tropical discussion board? At any rate, the visible loop has certainly gained a beautiful twist to it. Optical illusion? If not - the hurricane hunters are in the wrong place.

Link
Quake, this is WU stand also about images from other sites.
Posted By: hazmat at 6:30 PM GMT on August 09, 2006.
Hurricane23 is CHRISTY? Oh that's rich if true. Being banned from S2K for doing the SAME thing with Dr Masters work over there didn't teach you a lesson?

what are you talking about hazmat??
BrandonC, Thanks! There's alot of cool stuff at the LSU earthscan lab. Its just a little different than some of the other stuff at all the other regular sites.
im simply saying that posting an image on this board would never and will never be illegal
Just link the image thats all. Why is that so hard?
You said it right there SWF. Let's all just shut up about the images, keep doing what we're doing, and keep listening for 23's latest updates =]
Looks Impressive Taz.
Ok, other than copyright issues, what the hell is going on with 91L?
Posted By: quakeman55 at 11:36 AM PDT on August 09, 2006.
Oh Taz you know better than that; don't pretend like you don't. It's a "sucker hole."


how rude
Wind in Barbados now coming out of the NNE at about 10-15mph
True, its not illegal. But its WU that does not want these images posted on the site.
: hurricane23 i think we have a TS where are the recon
Wed Aug 09 2006
1812 GMT
Latitude 13.5 N
Longitude 59.3 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1017 feet (310 meters)
Flight level winds 170 degrees at 11 knots (12 mph)
Temperature 24 C Dewpoint 22 C
Surface Pressure 1011 millibars
Surface winds Unknown at 5 knots (5 mph)
Remarks: AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 10

Credit~ WUnderground
GROW UP!! dAAAAAAAAAAAAAA. COPYWRITE.................PICTURES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111one
your welcome boca
Thank you Skye:)
Great. The blog is going to hell in a handbasket. The usual suspects have returned today to put people down.

****Gloves are off****
Squam, you sound so upset.
Don't mean to bash you Taz...just trying to warn you b/c it's easy to make that assumption. The "sucker hole" is a Steve Lyons term btw.
"im simply saying that posting an image on this board would never and will never be illegal"

if you look back, i dont think you will see anybody on "THIS" board that said it was illegal....... i surely didnt say it was illegal..... i simply stated that common courtesy applies.....

ok, thats it for me on "imagegate" LOL
hurricane23, good picture. The convections looks like its trying to fire on the Se. If it does this might goto depression soon.
The only issue I have with it, is the fact that I'm not sure that this rotation is at the surface.

I see many people talking about MCS(or MCC as we use to call them). Yes technincally a organized blob equates with one. However, much of the literature that you will see is in reference to MCS in the Midlatitudes and those are different than those casued by tropical disturbances. The dynamics are different. Just a FYI(note some of it is in reference to the tropical ones, just make sure you have the right type).
is it WU or people with 56K?
Dont think so Taz...Nothing being reported close to that yet.
alright sorry i misinterpreted the argument, i only read the last of it
Canes, I love you
OK....STSUCKS; STORYOFTHEHURRICANE; THELMORES; HURRICANIC.....GET OVER YOUR DIFFERENCES OR GET OFF THIS BLOG!!!!!

Now back to the tropics....how's 91L coming along? Depression yet...sure seems like it should be already. When's the next update? I wonder what Dr. M would say about it now.
barbados where are you on the island?
Barbados, thank you thats very helpful. The east winds shifting to the NNE is a sign of rotaion(though you always have ne winds in fron of the wave, but the east winds were a deal killer)
Gee whiz...are we back to talking about weather yet???
I'm in the South West of the island.
STORM JUNKIES AND Drama Kings and Queens what does every one think of this current area of concern, some impressive satellite imagery last couple hours do we think it will turn more north west or stay south into the western carribean, and does any one think that non tropical low southwest of the azores has potential to develop on monday?
LET ME KNOW
721. AndyN
I hope we aren't arguing about copyright(not copy write) of pics, especially those of the US Gov't:
105. Subject matter of copyright: United States Government works35
Copyright protection under this title is not available for any work of the United States Government, but the United States Government is not precluded from receiving and holding copyrights transferred to it by assignment, bequest, or otherwise.

Have a good day all. Check back tonight after work.

Patrick
what do u do there for a living barbados? wow what i would give to live on an island and be able to make a living
Hurricane23?

Anyway, this thing appears to be organizing. I wont be surprised if it becomes a tropical depression. Then again, I wont be surprised if it goes poof.
reel, no this is no longer a weather blog, can you not see that? It has been hijacked by ridiculous people like me.
did i hear this is only producing 5 knots? Biggest storm ive ever seen with that calm of winds.
FLSilverSurfer, this sytem(#26) is close, but the rotation may not yet be on the surface and thats what the recon needs to see.
hurricane23, I have a strong feeling that the circulation is close to closed...maybe I'm wrong....
Hey 456-

In the latest infrared loop, it looks like 91 has turned a bit to the north...

Maybe we'll get some action, who knows...check it out and let me know what you think.

Cheers!
The obvious spinning of the clouds is the mid level center with no apparant surface circulation. If there is a surface circulation then it's probably to the NW in the blow up of convection.
I'm a Network Administrator for the largest Insurance company in the Caribbean.
Guys i don't believe it has a closed surface circulation yet.Recon is showing mostly E or ESE winds so far. I still see the low clouds ahead of the system moving from east to west. Barbados is also reporting east winds.
afternoon alli see we have some action going on and some drama in the area also> hos is everyone this wounderful afternoon????
just back from lunch hows 99L doing
STSucks, thats right because I have annointed myself the blog police. So weatherbrat would be a damn liar if they claimed such.
Here's thehightest surface winds I've seen so far...
Wed Aug 09 2006
1632 GMT
Latitude 14.7 N
Longitude 59.2 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 1017 feet (310 meters)
Flight level winds 70 degrees at 30 knots (34 mph)
Temperature 24 C Dewpoint 23 C
Surface Pressure 1013 millibars
Surface winds 80 at 20 knots (23 mph)
Remarks: AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 04
Whats up jp have not talk to you in awhile
OK...with all these posts about copyrights and images is there still an Invest?..goes to show you controversy will always take center stage.
O ya barbados? Well I'm the king of New Zealand. Top that one
Weather456 Did you see this Visible image i posted right under yours?


well it dos have a 1000mb and 40mph winds with it so i bet there a lower mb right now like 997 or 995mb with it now for get the tropical depression part its going to be are next name storm if the find any thing
amen STSUCKS, oh god people arguing let's sh*t our pants
That's not good news 23. It will be heading into the diurnal minimum shortly and that's not conducive for further intensification or even maintaining what it currently has.

Once again, being let down. Gonna leave the office now. Wouldn't be surprised to get home, fire up the laptop and see the convection crapped out. Hope I am wrong. I really want something to form. Talk to you guys in about an hour.
According to the 200 discussion the airplane hasnt even reached 97L yet.
That last one is an earlier than the 1st one I posted.

Crisis57 say 91L~ 50X's to yourself:)
hmmz cant wait to next picture
TXWEATHER. The conditions here are extremely symptamic of a system with circulation east north east of the island. Very heavy cloud cover visible to the north east with thunder storm cells and as Barbados has said there has been a change in the wind direction from east to north north east.
Taz: The pressure is not 100omb. That was an error on that website. Pressure is more like 1010mb, which would be a rise of 1mb from this morning.
thats great barbados. are you from the U.S.? or originally from there?
jp this blog will continue to be a circus until a hurricane forms this year!!
757. AndyN
Looks as if the circulation is closing or it is making transition.....Pretty evident signature on the pics:
Link
i know that feeling i left for about 3 hours and come back to copyright laws and what not being thrown around. i feel like i am in a dang court room and im the middle man. so whats your take on 99l there jp
without arguments/war America wouldn't even be a country today, disagreements are better solved with two opinions
we should right jp your predictions suck!!!! lol j/k
were u there cajun? doesnt look like much fun!
762. IKE
Pressure at Barbados as of about an hour ago...29.86 and falling...winds ESE.

Have the winds just shifted...to those who are on here from Barbados?
ST, as the ring leader of this circus I can tell you we'll be here through November
I am Barbadian.

I agree with barbados1. With the wind in the NNE the centre of circulation has not passed yet. A normal tropical wave cannot give us here a NNE wind. NE at the most.
Barbados would that be SAGICOR ?
New SHIPS....Link...Wow!
Anyone else notice that the models above all of this have changed since this morning??? All of them show the storm going more to the south then before and it has max winds in 120 hours at 94....Of course it is just a model and as we all know who knows how they'll turn out...
Link whats up with the sudden change in shape
Winds shifted within the last hour to NNE.
SAGICOR is correct
squam don't remind me..that jackass is probably sittin back laughing
IKE WE LIVE ON THE ISLAND. WHERE ARE YOU AND WHERE ARE YOU GETTING YOUR INFO????
wow is understatement.hows it going 03? i appreciate all your help.
recon is currently nw of barbados, heading N......

think they may have wasted gas money! LOL
Technically it is not ILLEGAL to post pictures from other sites. If a website puts pictures up online they are considered "public domain" and can be used by anyone. The majority of the pics I see on this blog are clearly tagged with a website the images/photos came from. SO - fair game. There are very few exceptions to this rule. Basically - if you post it online for the general public -- then anyone can use it (so long as it is not passed off as your own).
Barbados does Fosters ring a bell ?
777. IKE
Off of WU...Observed at: Grantley Adams, BR as of about an hour ago.
Fosters might ring a bell. Where are you from?
yeah, 23 i saw it...
Look at the new model runs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
without arguments/war America wouldn't even be a country today, disagreements are better solved with two opinions

Wow, history lessons now. But tell me, when America petitioned England for independence, if England would have granted it, would there have been a need for war? In other words, disagreements are better solved by cooperation
is there anybody that believes the "ships" model is believeable????

82knots???
785. IKE
I saw those computer model updates.
check grantley adams in the next hour an maybe you will get the live information we are getting now.
marker...
Posted By: stormsurge6 at 6:55 PM GMT on August 09, 2006.
Technically it is not ILLEGAL to post pictures from other sites. If a website puts pictures up online they are considered "public domain" and can be used by anyone. The majority of the pics I see on this blog are clearly tagged with a website the images/photos came from. SO - fair game. There are very few exceptions to this rule. Basically - if you post it online for the general public -- then anyone can use it (so long as it is not passed off as your own).


Not if it is copyrighted. This does not apply to NWS stuff (satellite, forecasts, etc) because things made by the U.S. government are in the public domain. Also see Plagiarism.
WONT41 KNHC 091857
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
can u post the link for model runs? please
Guys i think the spin were seeing is Basically aloft,also new model runs have shifted way south.
lol thats a good point, however, i cant imagine even Hitler giving up a country like America so easily.
I am still learning however 91L looks like it is getting sheared from the east...anyone?
URNT11 KNHC 091859
97779 18564 40140 60008 03100 11025 26179 /0010
40915
RMK AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 12

Surface: wind E at 15 knots; 1010mb
FL: wind ESE at 25 knots


I stole it...sue me
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
i don't trust the models no more this season has been as unpredictable as 91L's history has proven ill just play the wait and pray game
nolesjeff, Hell no, I got that from LSU's earth scan lab site.
lol youre going to jail ricderr, im reporting that to my local senator, shame on you
which platform was that?
RGB loop shows what seems to be an "eye" forming, but prob not. the early guidance reports indicate a possible clost to cat3 intensity forecast.
posting factual information that isn't even copyrightable, what a sin
805. Relix
Any chance this might turn NW or NNW? Cuz then I am leaving.. I have no interest if it isn't going even near PR like the last models predicted it would. Oh well.. guess Ill have to wait for another system for later.
this is really getting its act together
000
WONT41 KNHC 091857
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

No Td yet
Notice what this page says below the image:

This work is in the public domain because it is a work of the United States federal Government. This applies worldwide. See Copyright.
Note: This does not apply to works of U.S. state or local governments.


If it is from the NWS, NHC, NRL, etc, it is not copyrighted.
Guys, its MODELS. I have been reading this blog for a while now, and i noticed that every person on here at least said once, "dont trust the models". They only go by current information. I bet they may even shift further south, make a drastic turn norhtward, or even dissipate 91L at the next run. Calm down.
How can their not be a surface circulation if the visible is showing strong rotation
It dosn't say here's the Link
Dr. Masters said te best chance 91L had was heading west..... looks like that is what the models are now indicating......

but 82knots??? LOL
Barbados. Fosters is a good place to be.
your right weather456 key word is yet, but from the looks of it, this thing will form
so thats it. no td.
818. Relix
I just need to know if it COULD turn NW or NNW.
BTW, the long range SHIPS is useless. Just thought you guys would enjoy it:)
Wed Aug 09 2006
1856 GMT
Latitude 14.0 N
Longitude 60.0 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in and out of clouds
Flight altitude 1017 feet (310 meters)
Flight level winds 110 degrees at 25 knots (28 mph)
Temperature 26 C Dewpoint 17 C
Surface Pressure 1010 millibars
Surface winds 90 at 15 knots (17 mph)
Remarks: AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 12

There on the very SW side...I wonder if they're flying out.
Barbados1. Are you in Fosters?
I think the last post said that the circulation is aloft Thundercloud1221991
It could turn anywhere Relix, its not riding anything right now. We have to wait and see what will happen in about 3-4 days.
Guys i think the spin were seeing is Basically aloft this thing is racing at 30 mph....Developement will not happen unless it manages to slow because the lower half is racing along the low level ridge...and the mid level circ is lagging behind note the possible MLC that was left behind in vis imagery loops...If it manages to slow down and stack a little bit it may have some chance.
does that mean no td by 5pm?
for those that CONTINUE to "PIMP" their sites.....

"Posted By: WunderYakuza (Admin) at 3:55 PM GMT on August 08, 2006.
Some people have been spending a lot of time posting links to their own web sites over and over in this blog. This is spam. If the content of the comment itself does not give Wunderground users information in this blog or contribute to conversation in this blog, it is spam so please flag it.

Everyone has their own blogs on this site, in which we allow you to link to almost anything and write almost anything. That's the place for this kind of content, not here or in the other featured blogs where traffic is already quite high.

-Aaron"


Credit Colorado State University
(haha)

Im not buying this forecast
no TD yet i want my $ back lol well any way it look like we are looking at a cat 2 or 3 hurricane in a few day as it move in to the gulf
Guys i think the spin were seeing is Basically aloft this thing is racing at 30 mph....Developement will not happen unless it manages to slow because the lower half is racing along the low level ridge...and the mid level circ is lagging behind note the possible MLC that was left behind in vis imagery loops...If it manages to slow down and stack a little bit it may have some chance.
Actually Story.....i have a problem with anyone posting something created by another and not giving them credit. I thought hurricane23 was involved womehow with the hurricane hunters...i thought i remembered a conversation between him and randrewl and just figured he had information that was privvy to him and not the general public..but after 2 or 3 posts about it...seemed to me that it took on a life of its own
oops should have been more like far WNW side.
How in the damn stupid ass hell could it NOT have a closed surface circulation? I mean look at the visible! Clearly an excellent rotation going on there...no doubt.
jphurricane2006, is it going to ride a high? whats around the atmosphere that is going to steer it
Guys i think the spin were seeing is Basically aloft this thing is racing at 30 mph....Developement will not happen unless it manages to slow because the lower half is racing along the low level ridge...and the mid level circ is lagging behind note the possible MLC that was left behind in vis imagery loops...If it manages to slow down and stack a little bit it may have some chance.
Hurricane is now my registered trademark. I will accept all royalties either in beer or plywood. Thank you and carry on.
hurricane23- is your "submit" button stuck???? thanks for the same post
the models are only as good as the info put in. I'm not saying they don't put in good info, just that we don't know all the variables. So they can't possibly be totally accurate. They might hit it dead on or they might whiff. We wouldn't all be in here if they could nail it.
may have a chance? i thought it is almost sure to become a td by tonite or tomorrow?
thelmores; maybe you should send an email to everybody who posts their sites with that message in it if you don't want them posting their sites.
It'll slow down pretty soon here...they usually do.
843. IKE
Gulfscotsman...whether it's a TD/TS or not...the islands are still going to get some rough whether.

Calm down and take a shot of scotch.
There's clearly spiral banding going on around it...anyone have a radar link? Especially a moving radar?
"thelmores; maybe you should send an email to everybody who posts their sites with that message in it if you don't want them posting their sites."

MichaelSTL, i do exactly what the admin asked.... hit the spam button! ;)
Maybe they are not seeing the message.
Quakeman55. See moving radar link below.

Link
what the hell just happend to every single model? they were way north and now ??? way south.
"Maybe they are not seeing the message."

please sir.... i am not that nieve! LOL
SURPRISE?
newbie here just wondering if when it moves over the small islands does that ever trigger some thunderstorm activity during the day.
My prediction for this system is that :
Tropical Strom to night.
Huricane Cat tomorow morning and treath Haiti and Dominican Republic.
Make Land Fall a the south of haiti late friday or saturday morning as cat 2 ou 3.
Bad perspective......
Gulf - I think a little Shakespeare about this point would be good! It might reduce the tension...oh...I meant a little scotch - might lighten the mood.

They are models! They probably will turn way north again at 8 or 2. They change every time
tshizzle i agree with you like i have been saying all alnong nothing will develop in these hostile conditions...it was a waste of time to send a recon plane down there..StormTop
387
URNT11 KNHC 091859
97779 18564 40140 60008 03100 11025 26179 /0010
40915
RMK AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 12
;

25kts flight level

interpolator~ Yes that would be expected during the day, particulairly if the island got a good bit of sun on it before the storm showed up that day.
The Funniest Thing Ever


Since everyone is so hipped up about these new computer models, i say we take a little break and let 91L get its act together again. Watch that above and youll get a laugh out of it.
Will that convection stay going after it loses its heating just because it gets sucked into the storm
Tropical Disturbance 28 Continues to Organize
Updated: Wednesday, August 9th 2006 2:34pm CDT
Tropical Disturbance 28 continues to become better organized this afternoon about 100 miles east of Barbados near 13.3N/58.1W, moving west at 20-25 mph. Even though there is a well defined mid level cyclonic circulation evident on satellite, the latest reconnaissance reports indicate that it has not built done to the surface, so at least for the time being this will not be classified as a tropical depression. However, based on the latest trends, we do think this system could be declared a tropical depression later this afternoon or evening. Regardless if a depression does form later today or tonight, locally heavy rain and gusty winds up to 60-70 mph will be spreading across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands, mainly in between the islands of St. Vincent and Guadaloupe this afternoon through tomorrow morning. The mid level center will probably pass close to the Island of St Lucia around midnight tonight.

As for the track, steering patterns suggest that high pressure will remain to the north of this system for the next week. This should keep the disturbance tracking generally to the west or west-northwest through next weekend. Our forecast takes it into the eastern Caribbean Sea early tomorrow, then westward to near the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, possibly as early as Monday August 14th, and finally inland across southern Mexico during the middle of next week. Due to the strength of this high pressure area, any threat to the northern Gulf appears to be very low at this time. It does appear wind shear will be increasing across the Caribbean, so any short-termed organization that may occur over the next 24-48 hours may be short lived if the projected wind patterns remain over the Caribbean this weekend.

We will continue to track this weather system very closely in the upcoming days.

Meteorologist: Fred Schmude
60-70mph sound extremely high for just a tropical disturbance.
Pip- that was funny :)
863. KRL
Great update! Thanks!!

Loving these high pressure systems to keep these things out of Florida!
link to models please. i know where to get on nhc website after depression forms. thanks
robin..... look at the top of this blog in Dr. Masters post....... you can see model tracks there......
Robin here are a few model links


Link

Link

Link
so are we thinking TD at 5pm
By the way, did you hear that a new blog is up (half an hour ago)?
thanks so much.
StormTop, are you a gambling man???? i will put a hundred dollars that a hurricane will form in August! Want to take that bet ? we can use paypal LOL!!!
Does Barbados have a radar with a link?