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Lesser Antilles tropical wave; big money for hurricane research?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:47 PM GMT on October 27, 2006

A tropical wave (93L) moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands has gotten better organized today. Wind shear has dropped to 5 knots over the disturbance, and some modest thunderstorm activity has built up. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots over the eastern Caribbean over the next two days, which may allow some slow development of the system. The track of the disturbance should take it near the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and the island of Hispaniola will probably get heavy rains from this system on Sunday and Monday. I don't expect this system will become a tropical depression, but it is something we need to keep an eye on. This system is not a threat to the East Coast of Florida.


Figure 1.Preliminary model tracks for tropical disurbance 93L.

World Series tonight a GO
Tonight's World Series game in St. Louis between the Tigers and the Cardinals should not suffer any rain delays. Game time temperature should be about 45 degrees, with a strong 15 mph wind blowing out to center field.

The National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI)
There's big money proposed to fund new hurricane research. The National Science Board, in a report issued September 29, 2006, calls for an increase of $300 million per year in hurricane research funding. That's a whopping increase in funding, when one considers that the average annual spending on hurricane research has been only $20 million the past six years. So, what is the National Science Board, and this a reasonable proposal?

National Science Board
The 24 members of the National Science Board are appointed by the President of the United States, and make budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF has an annual budget of about $5.6 billion (fiscal year 2006), and funds approximately 20 percent of all federally supported basic research conducted by America's colleges and universities. So, this is a very serious proposal by a group which has real power to influence the Federal budget.

Major recommendations of the report
The primary recommendation of the report is the formation of a National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI), which will "provide urgently needed hurricane science and engineering research and education". As justification for this effort, the report notes that that hurricane damage is increasing, with annual total losses (in constant 2006 dollars) averaging $1.3 billion from 1949-1989, $10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year during the last 5 years. $168 billion in losses occurred in 2004 and 2005 alone. Over 50% of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast, and the value of infrastructure in the Gulf and Atlantic coast areas is over $3 trillion, with trillions more in investment likely in the next few decades as the U.S. population continues to expand. This incredible investment will be increasingly affected by hurricanes, and scientists "know relatively little about the most important aspects of hurricanes including their internal dynamics and interactions with the larger-scale atmosphere and ocean; methods for quantifying and conveying uncertainty and mitigating hurricane impacts; associated short and long term consequences on the natural and built environment; and the manner in which society responds before, during, and after landfall." The study notes that "billions of tax dollars have been provided for rescue, recovery, and rebuilding after hurricanes strike", but more money needs to be spent minimizing losses from hurricanes before they strike. In fact, had the NHRI been funded two years ago, much of the devastation wrought by Katrina could have been avoided. The program funds engineering studies to evaluate the structural integrity of the entire coastal infrastucture including levees, seawalls, drainage systems, bridges, water/sewage, power, and communications. The flaws in the New Orleans levees that led to over 80% of the city's flooding could have been found and fixed before Katrina hit had such a program been funded earlier.

The report has many excellent suggestions on how to make a coordinated research effort that will pay big dividends over the coming years by reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes. For example, the report seeks funding for research on improving evacuation planning, so that we can avoid a repeat of the debacle that occurred during the evacuation of Houston for Hurricane Rita. Over 100 people died in the evacuation effort. Research on improved disaster communications technologies is proposed, so that we avoid the situation that arose in Katrina where FEMA had no idea what was going on at the Convention Center.

My only gripe about the report is the inclusion of funding for research on human modification of hurricanes to reduce their intensity or alter their movement. I don't believe we should be messing with these great storms until we understand better how they work. In addition, given the sheer size and incredible energy that storms have, modification efforts will likely be an ineffectual waste of time and money. Finally, I don't think the legal system in this country will allow hurricane modification to occur without a lot of lawsuits being filed. I don't know too many hurricane scientists who are in favor of hurricane modification research, and suspect it is being funded for political reasons.

Is $300 million a reasonable request?
To do a thorough job of reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes, $300 million per year is a reasonable amount to spend. However, the U.S. faces a number of threats that also require large outlays of dollars, such as bioterrorism and earthquakes. The framers of the report realize that getting a $300 million per year project funded in a time of "increasingly small non-defense discretionary budgets" is difficult. To put this number in perspective, the annual amount spent in the U.S. on meteorology operations and supporting research is $3 billion. About $1 billion/year of this goes to run the National Weather Service, with weather satellites consuming another big chunk of the costs. But consider the amount being spent on defending the country against bioterrorism. The federal budget for bioterrorism emergency preparedness has ranged between $3 and $6 billion per year since 2002. The request for FY 2007 is $4.3 billion. That's over 200 times what we spend on hurricane research, and over ten times the $300 million being proposed. While others will disagree, I believe that the threat of catastrophe from hurricane strikes on the U.S. is much higher than that from bioterrorism. If we need to find funding for the NHRI, the bioterrorism budget can suffer a 7% cut. Another hurricane as strong as Hurricane Katrina is certain to hit a major populated area in the future, while a bioterrorism attack is not certain, and hopefully not even probable. There are wiser ways to spend our disaster preparedness dollars than what we are doing.

National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006
Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., introduced the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006, a bi-partisan bill that adopts the recommendations of the report. The proposed legislation puts NOAA and the National Science Foundation in charge of coordinating the research initiative. Not surprisingly, the bill is being co-sponsored by Florida's other Senator, Sen. Nelson (D-FL), and Louisiana's two Senators, Sen. Vitter (R-LA), and Sen. Landrieu (D-LA). Apparently, the Senators from the states hard hit by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 felt that $300 million per year wasn't enough, and ask for $435 million in funding per year through 2017.

Some historical perspective
In 1898, the United States fought the Spanish-American War. With the U.S. Navy heavily committed to operations in the Caribbean during the height of hurricane season, Willis L. Moore, Chief of the Weather Bureau, saw the need set up an improved hurricane warning system. Moore took a long view through the history of naval warfare and discovered that more armadas had been destroyed by weather than by the enemy. He placed his findings before President McKinley, and proposed that the U.S. spend money to establish a new hurricane warning service, despite the fact that budgets were tight in a time of war. McKinley responded to Moore: "I am more afraid of a West Indian hurricane than the entire Spanish Navy. Get this [hurricane warning] service inaugurated at the earliest possible moment!"

The Spanish are no longer our enemies, but the threat of hurricanes remains and will worsen if we do nothing. I hope today's politicians will emulate President McKinley, and take the long view of history. In the words of the report's conclusion:

Can we as a Nation continue to remain vulnerable to hurricanes that are an inevitable part of our future, that have demonstrated the capacity to inflict catastrophic damage to our economy, and that kill hundreds of our citizens? The hurricane warning for our Nation has been issued and we must act vigorously and without delay.

I urge you to write your Senators to support S, 4005, the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006. The public is also invited to email their comments on the report to the National Science Foundation at NSBHSE@nsf.gov before Sunday, October 29, 2006. Those of you in Louisiana and Florida probably do not need to write your Senators--they are definitely on board on this one!

I'll likely update just the first few sentences of this blog this weekend. I'll post a new blog on Monday.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

dont for get to set your clock back 1hr be for gong to bed sat night this weekend
good post
Friday Friday ho ho Friday!!
dr m you have mail
Thanks for the update Doctor Masters!
Marvelous sir Masters!
ABNT20 KNHC 272102
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES NORTH OF BARBADOS AND
ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE IN THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED AND BECOME A
LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
Thank you for showing that politicians can make the right choices once in a while.
hey ryang

are your ears ringing ??

Link
Can anybody guess what infamous storm this was.

Link
This link shows the current picture of the monster east coast wind storm pegged for the East Coast. Possible wind gusts in excess of 100mph are possible in any severe weather threat this storm poses for eastern New England the Cape and Islands and Downeast Maine. Seas up to 20 feet are likley causing beach erosion and coastal flooding. Heavy rains in the order of 1 to 3" are likely. This storm is expected to phase with another disturbance and likely strengthen below 970mb froecasted by the GFS, and pressure rises are going to fast and high creating that high wind producing pressure gradient for Sunday. High Wind Warning in effect for the Cape and Islands, high wind watch for Sunday and warning for Saturday. I repeat those living on the Cape and Islands need to heed warnings and gusts in microbursts are possible reaching 100mph in separate thunderstorms.
Its windy windy windy here on anna maria Island. gonna be bad overnight. Just walked beach about 25-30 mph winds waves are raging.
thunderstorms could be tornadic during the over nite here on west coast fla
Wishcasterboy that is hurricane belle.
its gonna be a busy night. I got my beer and just sittin here waiting for all you guys to chime in, I know patrap is rite on with the warnings and watches he posts,I like that. I heard he was a little under weather,hope he be back if we need him! Hope your feelin better if u out there. : )
Adrian is correct; just right-click and look at properties (LOL):

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/f/f9/Hurricane_Belle.jpg/800px-Hurricane_Belle.jpg

PS: To make it hard, save the picture to your computer, rename it with a nonsensical name (like eywyefgeyf or something), and upload it to an image hosting service.
Humidity: 100%
Dew Point: 79 F / 26 C
Wind: 18 mph / 30 km/h from the South
Pressure: 29.86 in / 1011 hPa
Visibility: 0.1 miles / 0.1 kilometers
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Scattered Clouds 1200 ft / 365 m
Mostly Cloudy 1400 ft / 426 m
(Above Ground Level)

Winds are up, winds out of the south, pressure up to 1011 from 1009 tells me the center has passed Barbados.
Here are some models for invest 93L...The NHC expects atmospheric conditions to become somewhat more favorable for futher development.


Looks like an Ernesto
Hey Guys, how are you tonight? I am alittle worried right now! My daughters are on their way to Orlando tonight! Then they will be driving back to Tampa, around 3a.m.! Will they be in bad weather??? Thanks for any answers!!!
yes tampa is expecting severe storms
Ill write my Senators Dr. Masters - I love harassing them.

There some interesting surface winds in the storms off the panhandle. Some bad ones could come up tonight. Keep an eye out fla. folks.

Station SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL

Station 42036 - W. TAMPA 106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
worste expected midnite to 7-8 am est
I really am worried! How bad do you think it will be?
mermaidlaw there is a good chance you guys in tampa could see some nasty weather with the cold-front pushing towards the southeast.

Here it is on infrared imagery making its way towards the south.


according to local reports for tampa area stronge wind, frequent lightening, downpours and possibility of tornados
Severe weather is so common here that many ignore it or don't do anything until it gets very bad (but you should if there are tornadoes); in fact, my parents had no idea what was coming on July 19th until I alerted them... and the sirens went off.
car in garage, phone on charger, not goin anywhere here on anna maria Island
Storms should be approaching the Tampa coast about 3am. If they are leaving Orlando at that time it could be a long drive for them. Heaviest storms should be along the coast.
We dont have sirens in Florida - you just wake up unexpectedly dead.
Here we are coming up on Halloween and if those of us last year can remember it was a bittersweet time of year because of wilma. Now I look out to the Atlantic and see another wave with potential coming up, and wonder does mother nature have another trick up her sleeve for those of us in the South Eastern US and surrounding Islands. I know that there is no idea what this system is going to do and just some early track guidance models out, but doesn't it seem ironic that as we come upon another halloween that we have mother nature up to her old tricks again?
Thanks guys for the info!!! I can't stop them now, as they are already on the way! I think i will have a sleepless night!
right now its windy and cloudy here its warm and sticky out you can feel it comming. no rain or thunder yet here.
Dew Point: 62 F / 17 C

Thankfully it is nighttime and dew points are low and dropping inland so they sould avoid the severe storms. Normal Florida T-Storms.
Check out the graph from the Tyndall Buoy - Pretty respectable for a cold front.
Now I know this is high grade spam but I would really like to get your feedback on this issue. Is Wallmart really as bad as the media makes it seem?

You never want to find out what lower 100s and 80 dewpoints can result in if a storm hits that airmass and you are in its path.
Holey crap that is a huge thunder storm coming toword me in Plant City
hey hurricane what do you think of 93L?
I live in Hillsbourgh, FL in Plant City
in Tampa its raining lightly here
I will be up all nite 2 friend, if you want the updates. we be here for you. I dont post stuff, but i can give u the first hand info. lol
The severe page today..so Far...Link
Miamiweather right now invest 93L is under light shear and convection has been pretty persistant most of the day today.The NHC at 5:30pm indicated that conditions may become somewhat more favorable for futher development.Over all i think if development were to occur with disturbance it will be slow.

Check your mail when you get a chance.
Welcome back, Patrap. Hope you are feeling better.
ProgressivePulse you got mail....
hurricane, you think this is the last trick from mother nature this year?
Thank you sue, AND thank you all! I am a mother, and I worry!
hey floridians..jim Davis's empty chair just blew across my deck. lol
Bacon and eggs

hi everyone
The three stooges
plywoodstatenative its possible but i think the odds are against any significant development from this disturbance.If any development were to occur, and thats a big if, it will be slow.Check your email i sent you something.
In barbados it is overcast and raining with heavy thunderstorms
Nice timing suenommi. Was that retired Gen. James Davis's chair or another Jim Davis. There are quite a few by that name.
That's what I've been telling everybody!
got it the email. The question I have, I see the early track guidance models, but have not seen any run by the GFDL model yet any idea when that will come out. Also the FSU and a few other models were predicting something to come out of the caribbean this coming week, is this possibly or remotely what the models might be thinking along the line of?
23 you see that heavy convection over barbadod.IS that the center
23 that wes a nice picture of you at the hurricane center
hi goofoff
i think once the wave gets into the carribean sea dry air will choke off the thunderstorms
commercials are makin me laugh. but the point is its gettin windy windy...: )my resin chairs are commin inside.lol
lol
Common name. lol
suenommi where are you located
What about interaction with land masses?
ha ha.lol
Thanks ryang.Its very hard to pic out any kind of LLC with 93L its looking rather disorganized with convection widely scattered in nature.Also iam not sure there is indeed a LLC with 93L,it has a good spin to it but this may be at the mid-levels.If any development were to occur it will be slow.
what land mass
oh thanks 23
anna maria island
..Tuesday Invest...94L..Link
lol
If 93L heads very far north, I think our friend, Shear, will take care of it.
also have house in Buffalo ryang
..Gotcha!..LOL
Ann maria island.Never heard of that
Forcat track takes this baby over land. Doninican/Haiti
near longboat key off bradenton, Sarasota area its a beauty
Anna Maria is a city in Manatee County, Florida, United States.
oh suenommi
goofoff shear is low north of puerto rico
oh im sorry did you think i was wearing a coconut bra with the skipper and gilligan somewhere ?lol
It's 64 degrees under sunny skies and this is a nice day!
lol
Still no rain here or no thunder yet. can someone post a radar for tampa area? appreciate it
radar,Tampa,FLA...Link
Tampa radar:

Yah he's around and he brought a friend!


RIP
This is what I was referring to ---

Link
lol
thanks folks. lol on the boys from the isle
nothing near tampa
yet
hey floridians..jim Davis's empty chair just blew across my deck. lol
lol i love that commercial
Well I'd talky talky about this system if I wasn't so out of it.
rain for south florida tomorrow, looks like it will get heavy at times, good for us because were in a rain fall deficit, like almost everyone else in the US
Here's another view at the thunderstorm activity.


Good afternoon folks
Hi crab
Well I can see that the tropics are still playing around a bit.
Good evening, all you lovely folks. I'm in Jacksonville and the prognosis for my evening is going downhill.

I now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.
Goin to buff wed to look at damage on some properties there. declared disaster area on 24th. power restored 2 some as of 2 days ago from the 13th. and they are expecting high winds tonight could bring down more loose limbs and make more problems
Suenommi, Are you in the Mass. area?
This should look familiar to those who have experienced a hurricane:



Notice the dark blue (moving southwest).
Tropical Storm 22w looks quite impressive on infrared imagery.


Florida now /Buffalo 2 my sister lived in belchertown mass. are you in mass?
Tampa's worst hurricane

NHC seems quite interested in 93L as of the 8:05pm disscussion...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM
REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED. IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND TSTMS
HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS FROM
11N-16N BETWEEN 53W-61W. THE WRN EDGE OF THIS CONVECTION IS
MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIB ISLANDS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE NEAR THE SYSTEM FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
The same NHC that doesn't know how to classify a Cape Verde Huricane!
The latest satelite representation and QuikScats from today suggest it is still a wave. I am not sure what they are looking at.
i have a nervous feelin 2nite..does anyone else? I call it my impending doom feeling. I have had it all day, like my inner barometer is ready to freak. lol Its weather related.
You have nothing to fear.
117. 0741
when will this storm get to south fl my wife donot like to hear thunder at night?
It will likely die before it gets near Florida.
maybe its a planet thing..cyberteddy keeps us up 2 date on that, I find it interesting...yet "spooky wierd" thanks wish boy you have eased my fear...for now....
Why do they call me wishboy?
cause i was 2 lazy 2 type "caster" lol : )
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 7:54 PM CDT on October 27, 2006.

Why do they call me wishboy?

An abbreviation of your handle; almost everybody has an abbreviated form of their handle (or several forms) that others call them by.
Well you can call me Mike. If I could change my handle I would.
I think you can have Aaron change your handle.
Aaron?
This is what I could use right now


EMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also known as WunderYakuza (in the Featured Blogs).
looks like activity mostly north of tampa in Brooksville area right now. but its on its way.
Yakuza!
well its quiet in here..I guess i will resort 2 a date with Jim Cantore twc or whoever is on 2nite...check back in bit. I just exploded a hotdog in the microwave 2 lol...(i gotta put down the bottle before i get hurt)lol(kidding)sort of....lol
Those babies do "plump" when u cook em...Yum




Good Lord!!!!!!!!

Thanks, tacobell. You and I will probably see some of this.
These blump two
your a funny guy wishCASTERboy..lol I told u I had a bad feelin...I was almost killed by my microwave..lol see ya all in a bit.
you aint rite boy..i guess theres a full moon...over and out...lol
2 full moons...er, better make that 4...
I'm gonna find me a meal even if it does move!
Pleasant evening to all. Lots of weather all over the place it seems. I am expecting the south end of the caribbean system to drop loads of water on me later tonight. And now for the BAD NEWS.... I have chicken pox and anyone who reads this entry has it too.(its contagious) The realy bad part is they say I cant drink while I'm on the drugs............
pottery - Don't worry, I already had it a long time ago and you can't catch it a second time. Also, I have antivirus software (LOL).


WOW....... LOT OF RAIN!!!!!!!!!!
Also I just re-read Dr. Ms blog from ealier today. He says that the east coast of Florida is not under any threat from the caribbean system. Thats because its moving WEST and noboddy is alowed to say that. Except ME.......heheheheh
Nice one STL........
000
ABNT20 KNHC 280202
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI OCT 27 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE
MAIN WINDWARD ISLANDS CHAIN. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BLAKE
Is ryang here?????????
hey pottery

is 93L still cooking ??
hurrican23 whats your point?
hurricane23, g'nite to you. What are the steering forecasts for the system looking like in the next couple days???????
Even if this thing develops a bit... Cuba will not let it intensify that much

HardcoreWeather.com
pottery

steering winds say W
Link
Hi there kman. Yeh, looks like its cooking good right now. Trying to raise ryang, who was on earlier, but it seems we have to charge him with gross dereliction of duty. He wus supposed to keep us posted on this.........
Good eve pottery! I made this for you....


Do you like?
maybe a flash flood in Bdos got him do you think LOL
Hey kmanislander!The NHC seems to think that over all conditions are going to become more favorable for futher development of 93L.
Stormchaster, it looks terribly disorganized. I see no reason for people in the Carribean to fear it.
Hey kman, its ok, you can say it, take a deep breath and say it loud WWWWESSSSTTTTTTT heheheheheh
Westward is the norm for Atlantic hurricanes.
wishcasterboy/mike. Nice one. Looks to be stoneware, but I couldnt decide if it was a brown glaze or a burnished slip. Did you make??????
The W word eh ??

well we shall see. This has been such an odd yr that anything is possible
I hope it dies so everyone can find something else to preoccupy their time!
Wishcasterboy you right 93L is looking very ragged this evening but if the NHC is indicateing that upper-level winds are forcast to become a bit more favorable i think folks in these areas should keep taps on whats going on.
wishcaster

this may be the last topic of conversation until next June or beyond. A TD with a little rain won't hurt anyone
anna maria island update..lol big fat nuthin...just wind dont even hear thunder or see any lightening in the distance, wind is pickin up a bit more.
Ernesto looked very similar to 93L when it passed through the Lesser Antilles. Ernesto was a real flop storm though.
Here a view of 93L from Ramsdis....


wishcaster, yes it looks disorganised, but heavy rains do more damage in these small mountainous islands than just about everything else. We are scared of rain...
low shear ahead so stay tuned. Right now the system seems to be under NE shear for some reason. Any views on this ?
Link
WATCH is the word not FEAR. If you fear this thing, you are wasting your time.
Actually that would be SW shear Kman. You can see by the way the clouds are being blown off to the NE.
Do you have flood insurance Pottery?
im gonna check the warning page that patrap posted earlier, updates like every 2 min. last i saw talahassee and jacksonville on it
The last topic? LOL Here is what was going on in March (the anti-peak of hurricane season).
weatherguy

I thought NE because Navy has the center at 13.7 and there is little convection N of that position. So, to me that suggests NE shear pushing the convection off to the SW where the heavy convection is ??

what do you think
also the LLC has been repositioned at 13.7 from 14.1 suggesting a NE push to the system
Its SW. You can see the direction of the shear on the shear map you posted. The red arrows indicate direction of the shear.
Yes a NE push by the SW shear. But that really doesnt mean much because I still dont see a true center. That is just an estimate.
Every morning I look out my window and see this....


I'm used to the FEAR.
look at this from twc A tropical disturbance, about 100 miles east of the island of Martinique is in an enviroment where further development is possible. at the very least, parts of the Lesser Antilles will pick up locally heavy amounts of rain plus gusty winds on Saturday. This system will be monitored and a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft may fly into the area on Sunday if needed.
This is the other side of my house.

Wiscaster, I didnt say I was in fear of this particular system, but I do have an awful lot of respect for 5 inch of rain that falls in 2 hrs on a valley that has a narrow exit. I dont know if you have ever seen how quickly things get realy nasty especialy at night in those conditions. Also some of these small islands depend on bananas for their forieng exchange. A 30 mph wind blows a banana away. Its not a romantic notion I know, but its real......
weatherguy

There is certainlty no clearly defined LLC as yet so the repositioning of the center is probably as much a function of where the heaviest weather is as it is shear. All in all still a very ragged looking system. It would have to really consolidate overnight to get classified
Posted By: cyclonebuster at 2:49 AM GMT on
October 28, 2006.

But we all fail to realize how we are causing these storms to become stronger. We are already modifing them for the worse. The "TUNNELS" reverse that.I have already compleated the studies and determined the "TUNNELS" are the cure.




Cyclone once again I'm forced to say it! Mankind ant got nothin on this!

Yes it's bad, but no disaster.
floater is up
This world WILL become a hothouse one again, its just a matter of time.
Wishcaster, thats a sweet place it looks like. I dont understand the fear. Whats up??????
Wishcaster, thats a sweet place it looks like. I dont understand the fear. Whats up??????
Looks like maybe dry air is causing 93L some problems. Seems if shear doesn't get them, dry air does. Hope it stays that way.
But don't listen to CybrTeddy if he tells you were becoming like Venus, thats many billions of years away.
Unless that is mt st Helens in the back there, in which case your a braver man than me, Gunga Din...........
well I'm in for the night
lets see what tomorrow brings
LOL... seeing that graph makes me laugh; it is inaccurate (let me find a more accurate graph somewhere).
Thats not really were I live. I'm in the general area though. Heres a picture of my city!


Home sweat home.
Go ahead, find a better graph.
This does not go back as far, but is far more accurate:



Note: this shows the departure, not the exact temperature.
Where did you get that?
The other graph gives you a general idea of the times, its not 100% correct but good enough.
One of the theories is that following the ice ages, the periods of rapid warming produced some hurricanes much more powerful than anyone could imagine.
Here is a satellite photo of where I live (the red dot is my location):



From here (enter your address)
The Medieval Warm Period is not properly recorded. The climate then could have been as warm or warmer than it is now. Does anybody know that climatic event came after the Medieval Warm Period?
Wiscaster, I give up. I cant tell where that is. Colorado??? Its sure not the tropics. Nice place ????????
..As the morning went on around 9 am cst..the Fireman caught the 17th St. Canal..failing on Video at Cat-2 levels ..as they hunkered down At the Lake Marina TowerLink..2 miles from me..Aug 29th last year..During Katrina..
GoofOff,

Read my blog entry.
It's Vancouver Washington.

Mike
Here is another (past 1,000 years):



Future projections:

Nice!
Heres a picture of the volcano I lived next to



NOTE: One of the houses in the lower left corner is the house I used to live in.
Here is a close-up of where I live (you can also enter 63129 in the forecast search box and then zoom in on the radar, which shows almost the same location):

It's no longer active but is one of the deepest lakes in North America. In Summer we used to go down and swim in the lake.
Hello?
STL, my goodness. I feel obliged to invite you to come and cast your eyes on some tropical rainforest. I dont think I could deal with that location for long.........
Pottery whats life on the other side of the World.
Those pictures were taken in March though... it is not like there arn't any trees around (even after the storm in July, where some people lost all the trees in their yard).
I like that graph, we need more palm trees up here! lol
My hood before Katrina..with 17th St. Canal in view..Link
My Hood August 30th..day after Katrina..click to enlarge..Link
Buster you just struck a nerve, are you saying that we are still in that Little Ice Age, that we are doing all the warming for now. If this is true were in big trouble when this ice age ends!
How ya doing Pat
Hey Sandcrab
Whats up Mike
Hey crab..Im up piddling around..Hows you?
Heres a new one I found..U2 Green day ..a REDUX..Link
Just enjoying the learning from my fellow wounderbloggers.
Doing good Pat at the hospital most of the afternoon Mother having chest pains the Cath came out clear though so all is well.
Ice Age = Ice on the Earth's surface.
Its good wishcaster.Island life can get exciting sometimes, but generally I find it possible to go with the flow and enjoy it. The fishing is great, and I live on a hill looking out over plains of sugarcane and forest with a range of mountains that go up to 3000 ft. Its the last spur of the Andes and the sea on the north coast drops down deep and pretty. We are 10 miles from the mouth of the Orinoco River, which is huge,and its flood wraps around here bringing all manner of flotsam. Plants, animals, anacondas, monkeys, everything. Its good.........
Pat's got good taste in music.
Mike, nice photos of the area I liked living in that region beautiful country there. Just needed a bit more sunshine.lol
For maybe 10 more years... Link
geez crab..thats a lot to deal with .Glad the situ is good for her..
A lot of people can't stand the humidity. I can't say I like it but when we went to Hawaii I loved it there.
No problem Pat she is a veteran of eleven stints.lol
Pat did the email with the song make it to you?
Tell her I hope she recovers soon..me & Teresa will keep her in our prayers...too
Well I did not mind the humidity it was the many days that you never saw the sun.
It's not to bad, look at the forecast.... Link
Thanks Pat and thank your wife for me all is good though at this time she is 84 and still fussing so the fire is still there.lol
enjoyed that one from Napster for sure..thanx
I don't know what happend but we had a role of very humid days during this summer.
Mother in law will be 90 December..she born 1917..still drives ,cooks..lil ol lady from Palermo...
Pat, just a bit of blast from the past.lol
Yeh the humidity is not nice. My sister who lives in Arizona for the last 8 yrs was here the other day for a couple of weeks. She just melted into a molten blob. says never again in the rainy season.........
I understand Pat the first question she ask this afternoon was did ya fill up the car with gas? LOL
Italian's are notorious for living a long time!
Mike, rainy season? I thought that was year round there. lol I miss tubeing down Mt Ranier.lol
Nope it rarely rains during the summer. Blame it on Global Warming lol!
You would never want to come here during the summer, not with 100+ temperatures and 80 degree dewpoints (then the most severe thunderstorm on earth; it happened in 2004 and 2005 too, although not like this year).
Sorry had to re-boot this ol PC..Sounds like shes up and atum sandcrab
Italian? LOL McMullan from the clan of Mcmullan family of the hill country feirce in belief and strong in will. lol
I could swear though it gets more and more like California each year.
Oh yes Pat woke up wanted a cheesburger.lol
I was talking about Pat's mother.
I'll have to live a long time to see if this Global Warming thing gets really bad.
The games Sunday..another bird to cook..LOL..this time its Ravens..
A long time? It is already happening.
Ok all have a good nite been a long day to all a good nite.
Good night Sandcrab.
No I mean like the insane affects of Global Warming.
looks like some intense rains sucking into west florida, while the caribbean stuff looks to be tapering off. overhead me there is high cloud that still looks like rain later...
Nite sandcrab..get some rest
How can you see its night over there.
Mike, just to let you know I got your email and it was way off base I suggest that you do not pursue a career in physcology. I will no longer pursue the issue that has been at hand but I will just give you a note of insight. Beware of the words you use and the context in which they may be applied and further remember old is revelent to the time it represents. Knowledge does not mean wisdom and depiction of character are in the minds of those that exspress them. Otherwise have a good evening.
So Patrick, if you don't mind me asking, what kind of health problems are you having?
I'm out too guys. May the morning find you all in good cheer.
Many think that Earth will turn into Venus (LOL). It won't happen, even if CO2 rose to 5,000 ppm or something (the Earth would have to be closer to the sun in order for it to get that much hotter). Also, most temperature increase occurs at the poles, so while the global temperature does rise, it will actually become more uniform (one bad side would be hurricanes that could travel to the poles and probably more unless wind shear increases). Actually, probably more - the jetstream is fueled by temperature differences (bigger difference = stronger) and the area of 80+ water would increase.
Did you steal some of that info from my blog?
wishcaster, it is indeed 12.25 AM, but its a lovely night, and I can see the clouds and the moon has just about set.
Just a colonoscopy to remove polyps from my Colon...nothing to be alarmed about.They took out 4..benign.
Im fit as a Stratovarious fiddle..LOL
Let me ask you Michael, if the Pacific in my area got warm enough to support hurricanes, were would they go and how strong could they get?
this one more note

Sonora -- DON'T FORGET ... Daylight Saving Time for 2006 comes to an end this weekend.

Effective 2am Sunday, the majority of the United States reverts to Standard Time. So before you go to bed Saturday evening, turn your clocks BACK one hour. The bonus being an extra hour of sleep.

On August 8, 2005, President George W. Bush signed the Energy Policy Act of 2005. This Act changed the time change dates for Daylight Saving Time in the U.S. effective next year.

Beginning in 2007, DST will begin on the second Sunday of March (March 11) and end the first Sunday of November (November 4). The Secretary of Energy will report the impact of this change to Congress. Congress retains the right to revert the Daylight Saving Time back to the 2005 time schedule once the Department of Energy study is complete.

For the U.S. and its territories, Daylight Saving Time is NOT observed in Hawaii, American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and Arizona.

Many fire inspectors suggest the change from standard to daylight saving time and vice versa are the two best times of the year to check batteries in residential smoke alarms.

That's great to hear lol!
LOL

One myth is that Europe will end up freezing when/if the Gulf Stream collapses from too much fresh water from melting ice; this is not why Europe is warm compared to eastern Canada - it is actually for the same reason the West Coast is warmer than the East Coast at the same latitudes. Link
Here the procedure on tape..LOLLink
Thanks Dazman!
I know, that wasn't my question though.
Most hurricanes in the Pacific travel west; currently, they run into cold water and dissipate. As the poles warm, the extent of warm water will increase; it will probably be a long time before the NW Pacific coast saw temperatures in the 80s though (cold water flows south from the Arctic along the West Coast, which is the opposite of what happens in the Atlantic, with warm water flowing north up the East Coast). Assumming that the water did get warm enough, recurving storms could possibly make landfall that far north. The same thing would happen to Europe as well; if the water had been just a few degrees warmer, Gordon could have become the second tropical system to hit Spain (or even the first hurricane).
Ten years? You have to remember that water stores enourmous amounts of heat energy; this is why Atlantic SSTs peak in mid-September instead of the end of June when the longest days of the year occur. This is also just for the surface; subsurface waters will take even longer to warm up.
Thanks man, I wonder though, could there still be deposits from hurricanes that hit this area from 100s of millions of years ago?
This discussion belongs here..LOLLink
Cyclone nothing offensive but what you said about climate change and WWIII sounds a little extreme!
No it's important to hear everything.
We are learning here, well at least I am.
There is a good reason why subsurface waters are so cold (something like 40 degrees even in the tropics at the ocean floor): Cold water sinks and warm water rises, so mixing is limited; the cold water sinks at the poles, which is why it is so cold at the ocean bottoms. Here is a cross section of the Gulf:



The cold water eventually upwells, keeping surface waters cool where it occurs (forget about buster's tunnels).
go out side and see the world...you sit in here all day and get fat
Storm Surge Video..Extreme..Link
Chilly, those bottom waters are colder than the surface waters of the Oregon Coast during Winter!
Posted By: Samhain at 11:47 PM CDT on October 27, 2006.

go out side and see the world...you sit in here all day and get fat


I bet that is you? LOL!

I can't be on here all day anyway because I have stuff to do (which is why I am on during the evening, although I can sometimes get on in the morning for a short time).
Samhain, I run cross county, no way I'm getting fat anytime soon!
Tunnel vision...Link
turn on the weather channell and get a life
I know some others who seem to be on all day though... at least they post at anytime of the day or night.
I'll admit I do spend some time on this blog, but most of the time I'm gone its usually because I'm doing somethin important.
What do you want Sam, if nothing, stop insulting us!
you saved me from the big bad thunderstorm wishboy my hero
Well what kind of hurricane seasons can we expect within the next 50 years?
Ahh! He's better without that hair!
LOL!
President Bush today...Link
I have no idea; they could be more or less active. Some predictions say that El Nino could become permanent, which of course does not mean that we would no longer have to worry about storms (1992 had a stong El Nino). Note that El Nino mainly affects systems that develop in the deep tropics, below 20N or so, so if warm water extends further north, an increase in storms in the subtropical Atlantic is possible. In the Pacific, the same thing could happen, especially if El Nino conditions become more common or even continuous.
That's the best one yet Pat!
Pltttttttt!..LOL
Wow! I never though of that, El Nino could tip the scales!
Doe's a cold winter really have that much of an affect on hurricane seasons. The winter of 04-05 had that awful snowstorm that hit South Texas and Northen Mexico, and the hurricane season that year was the most active on record!
Cyclonebuster, that's a yes/no anwer for me!
From Dr. Masters:
El Nio and climate change
A trend to El Nio at this time of year is unusual; May or June are the typical months that El Nio starts to develop. While the Climate Prediction Center expects that this will be a weak El Nio, the unusual timing of this event puts us in relatively uncharted territory. Since 1950, only one El Nio has started in the Fall, the El Nio of 1968. This event was an average El Nio, with a peak SST warming in the East Pacific of 1.0 C. For comparison, the warming was 2.3-2.5 C in the record El Nio events of 1997-98 and 1982-83. The unusual timing of the 2006 El Nio event comes on the heels of the unusual timing of the La Nia event that ended in May. The 2006 La Nia started very late--no La Nia of similar magnitude had ever formed in the middle of winter, as this one did. One may legitimately ask if these events might be linked to human-caused climate change. I am concerned that this might be the case, but we don't have a long enough record of historical El Nio events to know. Up until 1975, La Nia events and El Nio events used to alternate fairly regularly with a period of 2-7 years. Between 1950 and 1976 there were seven El Nio events and seven La Nia events. Since 1976, El Nio events have been approximately twice as frequent as La Nia events, with ten El Nio events and only six La Nias. Some researchers have speculated that this is due to the effects of global warming causing a new "resonance" in the climate system. If so, this is one way in which global warming may end up causing a decrease in Atlantic hurricane activity over the coming decades, since the increased wind shear over the Atlantic during El Nio events greatly reduces the number and intensity of these storms.

Maybe in the Pacific, but not the Atlantic.
Goodnight...Link
SSTs are certainly not the only factor; look at this year. There have been more active seasons where the Atlantic was cooler. Also, while El Nino was made official in September, El Nino conditions have to persist for five months before an El Nino is declared:

Couldn't the infrequency of a well timed El Nino and La Nina just be some wobbles is the system as well?
Is that graph an El Nino forecast?
President Bush is a ass hole

and now bak to the weather
I think he's losing his mind, if he wasn't crazy in the first place!
you mean President Bush oh i hate him
Tazman are you from Tasmania?
Posted By: Wishcasterboy at 10:35 PM PDT on October 27, 2006.

Tazman are you from Tasmania?

nop
Oh well, were are you from?
I used to be really interested in politics. The last few years I've just kind of lost my interest.
i am from ca

lol
Well I'm going to go relax, maybe even get some sleep, Peace out.

Mike
California, I'm from Washington, short trip!
well he is
I don't like him either, but you need supporting points to your conclusion.
well talk later e mail me by WU e maill night
well mean of us dont like him this ask evere one her in the US and around the world
yes i think so tooo
you are right

well niht you 2
In this world, Today, you nead to think for yourself. That's the problem with Americans these days, they don't want to do they're own dam work! If you don't want to think for yourself, their are plenty of people who will be more than happy to think for you. Be warned this is at your own expense!
In other words, think outside the bun!
I can't tell you how many times I'll be siting in class and somes kids will ask me to do their work, why, because I'm the kid with the glasses! I should just do their projects blindfolded so they all get Fs! HA HA ha ha ha ha!!!!!!!!!!!!
I just want to be recognized for something, you know, I just want to do or make something people will remember me for.
lol
Well if they do get you to do their work and you do it and let them down they will whoop you lol . but on the other hand if you do their work they are smarter then you !!!!
No I've turned them down before, but that's not the point. The point I'm tring to make is I don't want to be like everybody else. I want to make a footprint on this Earth, to change it in a positive way!
They'll never learn if I do it for them! Thus it is my purpose to not help them.
I'm new to this blog, but watch it almost everyday. I am very interested in every aspect of the weather. So how is everyone?
I'm not sure if I want to be the "lets all get along guy", they tend to have a high mortality rate just look at Jesus, Gaundi, Lincoln, JFK, and Dr. King. That's not the way I want to go out!
Welcome Fliptill, I'm Mike its a pleasure to have you here.
I mentioned before that in my area there is a myth that we don't have storm issues due to the fact that we are a "safe harbor" any trueness to this?
Thanks Mike, nice to meet you as well.
Is everyone gone?
Link
What do we think of this? Rainmaker for the U.S. or just pushed away by the next front?
I'm sorry forgot to mention I'm in the Tampa area.
I'm back!
Tampa's worst hurricane

It could have been much your no safer than the rest of the East Coast.
So whats your name?
Flip?
See yall later!
SISSY'S..................
Contacting your senators

Contact your senators here. Write your own letters, though. :-)
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006


A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...ALONG
60W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 TO 15 KT. A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN
FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 55W-65W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.




Morning all,

Look at that cold front go!!! It's running across Florida like it's on speed! Forecasters are suggesting it will get here tonight or early tomorrow, but I think we will see the leading edge of this hit Nassau by mid-day at the rate it is going. I also see a collision in the making for this front and 93L. I see it has made it into the E. Caribbean. Now the abrupt turn across the Bahamas the BAMM was forecasting makes a bit more sense. That front looks a lot more vigourous than it did yesterday . . . . 93 doesn't look that hot.
Morning Baha....yeah the cold front is over me right now. Rain right now...not too heavy yet.
Hey, Rand,

Do u think that front will stay strong enough to turn 93L north before it reaches the western Caribbean?
381. IKE
Looks like that front isn't going much further east from where it's at around the Yucatan channnel. 93L may have a shot in the western Caribbean.
382. IKE
Per this mornings Key West discussion..."the cold front will become stationary
over the Bahamas and central Cuba...before possibly lifting closer
to our region. With the close proximity of the front and a deepening
northeast to east flow..."...

That deepening NE to E flow should keep 93L from getting pulled north for the time being.
Ike, have u looked at a loop? I don't think that front's going to stall before it is at least 1/2 way across Cuba . . .

Rand, it's already overcast and drizzly here. I have to go out this morning, but I don't know if I will go out as planned this evening. Open air cafes are not so great when it is raining . . .
Anyway, I'm out, guys. Hope it livens up in here today so I will have some reading . . . lol
385. IKE
1/2 way across Cuba isn't that much further east then the Yucatan channel, plus it is forecast to back up when the high moves in the Atlantic.
Yeah, IKE...this front is not that strong. It will be backing up.
Here's how it looks here this AM:




387. IKE
56.1 degrees here in the Florida panhandle...strong NW winds...mostly cloudy skies this morning. Heater on.

93L could be an issue if it can get to the western Carribean. The next front will come down next Tuesday or Wednesday and according to the NO morning discussion, could be stronger then models are forecasting. That front might draw 93L north the middle of next week.

Of course...that's assuming 93L survives.
388. IKE
Nice neighborhood U live in.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
542 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006


PLEASANT DAY IN STORE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MOST AREAS AS
DRY AIR FILTERS ACROSS AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE THE FRONT BACK
TO THE NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THE GFS LIFTING IT
BACK UP ACROSS THE STRAITS. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT MAKES
BEST SENSE CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK AS
EASTERLY FLOW AND FRONT INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS. TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE WEST. GFS DEPICTING A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO PRESENCE OF FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE..
.BUT DECIDED NOT TO BUY FULLY INTO IT AND BEST COURSE
IS TO WAIT FOR CONTINUITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.


morning all..front passed through with out much fan-fair here on anna maria Island, still 25 mph wind. Glad Sarasota clearin out for Blues fest at Ed Smith Stadium 2nite.(allman Bros. etc.) I hate it when my beer gets rained on, although my dancing looks better while I dodge lightening bolts...lol
Thanks IKE...Guess I'll be watching the Bahamas a little closer.
suenommi....Lucky you. The Allman's are one of my all time favorites!
seen them..well this will be 8 times...lol you gotta be "southbound baby" 2 see them 2nite!
Absolutely! I can't be there....so it's just not my Cross to Bear!
tid bit...greg allman lived on Anna Maria Island in the 70's..article in the islander last week. he is welcome 2 party at our house after the show. lol
I remember he lived around there. Dickie Betts used to live here at one time way back before they were the Allmans.
always a good show..I call it "the scooter trash extrordinair party-(slash) almost a dead show" lol good times.
slash) almost a dead show

That should be fun!
Morning Rand and everyone
Morning Crab.
well rand..."i'm no angel" so Its time 2 put a fresh coat of armor-all on my leather haulter 4 2nite. check the weather later..see ya..lol
A very good morning,to you randrewl. To everyone else too. You floridans are wet this morning, and I'm still waiting on it to rain here. All the weather seems to be sneaking past my north, Looks like this system could stick together for a while though so we shall see......
Morning Pottery.....I'm getting a little rain this morning. So most of 93L missed you?
Yeh drewl, some rumblings in the night to my north, but there is lots of moist in the itcz coming my way. A good w/e for sitting around watching my chicken pox take over my various surfaces!!!!!
Looks like you'll get wet soon enough. Sorry to hear about the pox.
Here's how it looks this morning Pottery.




Here's the spaghetti's:




Morning all. Got a pretty good soaking overnight here in Tampa.
Yes drewl, I saw that earlier. still a couple of hours away. and it may sneak north yet.........
Morning Nash....I'm getting it now.
hi nash,
Nothing too serious, but it made my dog a little nervous and she woke me up at 4am.
Morning everyone
Good morning Pottery. How are you?
Morning Gator:-)
Hi Randy...I will stay out of your blog today...sorry:(
Hi Nash...was in rough last night in Tampa?
Not really Gator. A couple of straight line wind gusts and some heavy rain, but no sirens or anything...
Morning Gator....my blog is open to all.
There are sirens in Tampa? Like for Tornado warnings?
Well actually Rand...I already posted, but I am going to delete it.....
good morning everyone. haven't had my coffee yet but had to check in first lol

It looks as if the low cenetr of 93L is near 13N 64W. To travel 4 degrees overnight is a pretty fast clip but not unusual for the E Caribbean. Typically these systems slow dramatically once reaching underneath Hispaniola.If that happens we could see some development
Nah Gator...leave it there.
gator, how is life in your swamp today???? all is well?
Morning Kman.
Hi Pottery (blushing)

Hopefully the swamp will get some real rain...but all is well after a good's night sleep!
Morning Kman. Yeah, we could see some slow development from this as the upper level winds appear to be favorable for this thing, which is very unlike what has been in the Carribbean all year long.
morning Rand. Lots of weather action everywhere.
That strong front is bearing down on the NW Caribbean right now. Could be rough weather here later today from it
429. IKE
Posted By: kmanislander at 7:59 AM CDT on October 28, 2006.

good morning everyone. haven't had my coffee yet but had to check in first lol

It looks as if the low cenetr of 93L is near 13N 64W. To travel 4 degrees overnight is a pretty fast clip but not unusual for the E Caribbean. Typically these systems slow dramatically once reaching underneath Hispaniola.If that happens we could see some development


I agree with your coordinates. It is moving along at a good clip. This one may have a shot at developing.
Yah kman. Wacth out , its coming yr way, ingore the spagetti........
Hi Nash

Good to hear from you again. Who would have thought we would be watching an Easterly wave in the Caribbean this late in the yr ?
Could be rough weather here later today from it

Looks like the worse part is the tail end over Western Cuba Kman. Watch out!
hey there pottery
sorry to hear you are a little under the weather ( pun intended ) LOL
Actually Kman, I am not surprised. I have been thinking before the year is out, we would reach "Joyce". Although this may not get named, I do believe a TD is not out of the question...
looks like it will be a close call here in a few hrs. The tail end does look very nasty
Link
Nash
I know what you mean. Several posters on here remarked back in Aug. that the latter part of the season may well be where one or two surprises would come from
hey all whats going on with the system in the boc woryy or not to worry
OK, guess it waxs a little too early to put away the hurricane shutters.

Florida Keys Fishing
kman, those strange people from Florida keep kidnapping your weather. But not this time, no siree, they just want something to look at up close, but this time they gonna haf to buy a plane ticket... anyway, seems they have enough of their own today for sure.....
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING SSW FROM THE GREAT LAKES...CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF. AS OF 28/0900 UTC...THE FRONT WAS
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR COASTAL YUCATAN NEAR
21N90W...TO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N95W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT IS NOTED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE
MEXICO...WITH MORE CONVECTIVE WEATHER FURTHER E IN THE WARM
SECTOR MOVING ACROSS THE SE GULF AND SE FLORIDA. THIS AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS CAUGHT UP AND
THUS THE TROF WAS LEFT OFF THE 0900 UTC MAP. STRONG NW/N WINDS
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KT ARE COMMON BEHIND THE FRONT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NW...AND SHOULD DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
GULF BY THIS AFTERNOON.
Nash...did you see this?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
542 AM EDT SAT OCT 28 2006


PLEASANT DAY IN STORE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 MOST AREAS AS
DRY AIR FILTERS ACROSS AREA AS HIGH PRES BUILDS. DRY WEATHER WILL
LIKELY NOT LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY AND BEGINS TO MOVE THE FRONT BACK
TO THE NORTH. MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE NAM
KEEPING THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THE GFS LIFTING IT
BACK UP ACROSS THE STRAITS. PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION AS IT MAKES
BEST SENSE CONSIDERING THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH MID WEEK AS
EASTERLY FLOW AND FRONT INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS. TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH NEXT MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE WEST. GFS DEPICTING A SFC
LOW DEVELOPING IN THE BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO
NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION DUE TO PRESENCE OF FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE...
BUT DECIDED NOT TO BUY FULLY INTO IT AND BEST COURSE
IS TO WAIT FOR CONTINUITY IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
pottery
you got that right. That front is very strong for this time of yr.
so watch you think i am just wondering nobody is really mentioning it i am in florida and i know this time of year this can be bad
PC...read the Gulf discussion I posted above for your information.
pcshell

I don't see anything in the boc. there is some convection over land but with all that cold air aloft my guess would be that the gulf is closed to tropical development for the rest of the yr
thank you randrewl
Yeah Rand, I have been seeing that in the last few GFS runs. It takes it NE out to sea.
Oh, and just in case no one mentioned this yet, the wave is moving WEST.

I had to throw that in:-)
Navy has repostioned the sat
center placed at 14.3N 63.5W and pressure of 1009
Link
Nash

W it is !
the wave is moving WEST.

Oh yes....I'm all over that West thing...LOL!
That's right my brother, west it is!

hi all. i just have to comment on the national hurricane research initiative act.
i have two questions for y'all to consider:

- just what technology will be used (in their theory) to
alter the path or magnitude of a hurricane? silver iodide won't cut that.
and

- once they id all the weak points in our coastal infrastructure, what will be done next? a program to strengthen them?

of course if you have your headlights on i'm suggesting something here. that would be... if there were technology to control weather like hurricanes and there were on record weak points in coastal infrastructure, that info in the hands of the wrong people coule make them massive amounts of money and cause untold destruction and loss of life. but alas, i do not wish to raise sand. it's more about awareness.

bb soon
coffee time
jackson88, as far as anyone controlling the weather, that is something I definitely would not lose any sleep over. If the funds are used to beef up the levees and improve structures in coastal areas as well as giving the NWS and other qualified groups the funds to attempt to find out what really lets the storms get cranked up and better methods of figuring out intensity, I am all in favor of it. They have improved quite a bit in regard to track, but many other things are still unknown.
here is why its West for 93L href="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm3.html" target="_blank">Link
sorry about that

Link
Yep. Steering currents definately taking this thing west for now. Not sure yet if it will be picked up by the next front, but we'll see.
The current front moving into the Western Carib is forecast to back up to the FL Straits early week. So 93L...if it gets that far...stands some chance across the Carib.
Nash

That front will likely erode the W edge of the ridge as it pushes to the SE
I would expect this to allow 93L to make a hard right turn before reaching the NW Caribbean but it all depends on timing and speed of 93L versus the front.
the models will be interesting to look when they are updated
i live in south florida it is raining here can anyone tell me will this end by 5:00pm est today?
please help
464. IKE
Should be east of south Florida by 5 pm EDST.
Lovely....

Just caught a preview of what's on tonight on AMC, and the movie that scared the toenails off of me is gonna be on like 87 times between now and Halloween.

Which, by the way, is my birthday.....
Well that explains things.....Nash is really a Goblin...LOL!
its also headed for Jamaica as well. Maybe it will slow down dramatically allowing for some organization.