WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Lesser Antilles disturbance; big money for hurricane research?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:53 PM GMT on October 28, 2006

A tropical wave (93L) moving through the Lesser Antilles Islands has not gotten better organized since yesterday. Winds from this morning's QuikSCAT satellite pass were in the 20-30 mph range. Wind shear is about 10 knots over the disturbance, and is forecast to remain below 15 knots over the eastern Caribbean over the next two days. This may allow some slow development of the system. The models are indicating that if the disturbance crosses Cuba and enters the Bahamas, it may have a chance to develop early next week as it recurves northeastward out to sea. The disturbance may bring heavy rains to the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba Sunday through Monday. I don't expect this system will become a tropical depression, but it is something we need to keep an eye on. This system is not a threat to the East Coast of Florida. My next update on this system will be Sunday evening.


Figure 1.Preliminary model tracks for tropical disurbance 93L.

The National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI)
There's big money proposed to fund new hurricane research. The National Science Board, in a report issued September 29, 2006, calls for an increase of $300 million per year in hurricane research funding. That's a whopping increase in funding, when one considers that the average annual spending on hurricane research has been only $20 million the past six years. So, what is the National Science Board, and this a reasonable proposal?

National Science Board
The 24 members of the National Science Board are appointed by the President of the United States, and make budget recommendations for the National Science Foundation (NSF). The NSF has an annual budget of about $5.6 billion (fiscal year 2006), and funds approximately 20 percent of all federally supported basic research conducted by America's colleges and universities. So, this is a very serious proposal by a group which has real power to influence the Federal budget.

Major recommendations of the report
The primary recommendation of the report is the formation of a National Hurricane Research Initiative (NHRI), which will "provide urgently needed hurricane science and engineering research and education". As justification for this effort, the report notes that that hurricane damage is increasing, with annual total losses (in constant 2006 dollars) averaging $1.3 billion from 1949-1989, $10.1 billion from 1990-1995, and $35.8 billion per year during the last 5 years. $168 billion in losses occurred in 2004 and 2005 alone. Over 50% of the population lives within 50 miles of the coast, and the value of infrastructure in the Gulf and Atlantic coast areas is over $3 trillion, with trillions more in investment likely in the next few decades as the U.S. population continues to expand. This incredible investment will be increasingly affected by hurricanes, and scientists "know relatively little about the most important aspects of hurricanes including their internal dynamics and interactions with the larger-scale atmosphere and ocean; methods for quantifying and conveying uncertainty and mitigating hurricane impacts; associated short and long term consequences on the natural and built environment; and the manner in which society responds before, during, and after landfall." The study notes that "billions of tax dollars have been provided for rescue, recovery, and rebuilding after hurricanes strike", but more money needs to be spent minimizing losses from hurricanes before they strike. In fact, had the NHRI been funded two years ago, much of the devastation wrought by Katrina could have been avoided. The program funds engineering studies to evaluate the structural integrity of the entire coastal infrastucture including levees, seawalls, drainage systems, bridges, water/sewage, power, and communications. The flaws in the New Orleans levees that led to over 80% of the city's flooding could have been found and fixed before Katrina hit had such a program been funded earlier.

The report has many excellent suggestions on how to make a coordinated research effort that will pay big dividends over the coming years by reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes. For example, the report seeks funding for research on improving evacuation planning, so that we can avoid a repeat of the debacle that occurred during the evacuation of Houston for Hurricane Rita. Over 100 people died in the evacuation effort. Research on improved disaster communications technologies is proposed, so that we avoid the situation that arose in Katrina where FEMA had no idea what was going on at the Convention Center.

My only gripe about the report is the inclusion of funding for research on human modification of hurricanes to reduce their intensity or alter their movement. I don't believe we should be messing with these great storms until we understand better how they work. In addition, given the sheer size and incredible energy that storms have, modification efforts will likely be an ineffectual waste of time and money. Finally, I don't think the legal system in this country will allow hurricane modification to occur without a lot of lawsuits being filed. I don't know too many hurricane scientists who are in favor of hurricane modification research, and suspect it is being funded for political reasons.

Is $300 million a reasonable request?
To do a thorough job of reducing our vulnerability to hurricanes, $300 million per year is a reasonable amount to spend. However, the U.S. faces a number of threats that also require large outlays of dollars, such as bioterrorism and earthquakes. The framers of the report realize that getting a $300 million per year project funded in a time of "increasingly small non-defense discretionary budgets" is difficult. To put this number in perspective, the annual amount spent in the U.S. on meteorology operations and supporting research is $3 billion. About $1 billion/year of this goes to run the National Weather Service, with weather satellites consuming another big chunk of the costs. But consider the amount being spent on defending the country against bioterrorism. The federal budget for bioterrorism emergency preparedness has ranged between $3 and $6 billion per year since 2002. The request for FY 2007 is $4.3 billion. That's over 200 times what we spend on hurricane research, and over ten times the $300 million being proposed. While others will disagree, I believe that the threat of catastrophe from hurricane strikes on the U.S. is much higher than that from bioterrorism. If we need to find funding for the NHRI, the bioterrorism budget can suffer a 7% cut. Another hurricane as strong as Hurricane Katrina is certain to hit a major populated area in the future, while a bioterrorism attack is not certain, and hopefully not even probable. There are wiser ways to spend our disaster preparedness dollars than what we are doing.

National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006
Sen. Mel Martinez, R-Fla., introduced the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006, a bi-partisan bill that adopts the recommendations of the report. The proposed legislation puts NOAA and the National Science Foundation in charge of coordinating the research initiative. Not surprisingly, the bill is being co-sponsored by Florida's other Senator, Sen. Nelson (D-FL), and Louisiana's two Senators, Sen. Vitter (R-LA), and Sen. Landrieu (D-LA). Apparently, the Senators from the states hard hit by the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005 felt that $300 million per year wasn't enough, and ask for $435 million in funding per year through 2017.

Some historical perspective
In 1898, the United States fought the Spanish-American War. With the U.S. Navy heavily committed to operations in the Caribbean during the height of hurricane season, Willis L. Moore, Chief of the Weather Bureau, saw the need set up an improved hurricane warning system. Moore took a long view through the history of naval warfare and discovered that more armadas had been destroyed by weather than by the enemy. He placed his findings before President McKinley, and proposed that the U.S. spend money to establish a new hurricane warning service, despite the fact that budgets were tight in a time of war. McKinley responded to Moore: "I am more afraid of a West Indian hurricane than the entire Spanish Navy. Get this [hurricane warning] service inaugurated at the earliest possible moment!"

The Spanish are no longer our enemies, but the threat of hurricanes remains and will worsen if we do nothing. I hope today's politicians will emulate President McKinley, and take the long view of history. In the words of the report's conclusion:

Can we as a Nation continue to remain vulnerable to hurricanes that are an inevitable part of our future, that have demonstrated the capacity to inflict catastrophic damage to our economy, and that kill hundreds of our citizens? The hurricane warning for our Nation has been issued and we must act vigorously and without delay.

I urge you to write your Senators to support S, 4005, the National Hurricane Research Initiative Act of 2006. The public is also invited to email their comments on the report to the National Science Foundation at NSBHSE@nsf.gov before Sunday, October 29, 2006. Those of you in Louisiana and Florida probably do not need to write your Senators--they are definitely on board on this one!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

For comparison:



180 mph, 895 mb
loosing the eyewall
oh god!!!!!!!!!! NVM i take back what i just said about cimaron not being a record
Note: i may lose power at any moment so if i dont answer to anyone thats why
Rand when it devlops to be more immpresive (Which should happen in a few hours) we'll talk about it
Tropical Atlantic Invest 93L:




Rand question does it have a LLC
OK NOW YOUR GOING TO GET IT IF YOU KEEP POSTING THOSE PIC OF THAT BUNCH OF CLOUDS
Just click on the "-" button.
OMG RAND STOP IT
????????????????????????????
The Admin says to follow the blog title.
You don't like it...take it to a personal blog.
IT ALSO SAYS refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather WHICH MEANS WE CAN POST ABOUT OTHER TROPICAL WEATHER OTHER THAN THE TITLE YOU GET IT YOU DUMMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
JTWC must still be working on the advisory.. its usually out before 900am UTC
Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
MY GOD YOU MUST HAVE NO LIFE IF YOU WANT TO FOLLOW A BUNCH OF THUNDERSTORMS AND NOT A CATEGORY FIVE SUPER TYPHOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
sorry i got a little carried away....
Completely Atlantic Basin related weather photo...my front yard this morning!




huh? what else will i get banned for?
Now what!?
Banned right quick if you keep off topic.
hmm wonder how long til Tropical Depression 06B is posted by JTWC

29/0830 UTC 15.1N 80.4E T2.5/2.5 98B

or does the intensity have to be greater than 2.5
*tear* Sorry I don't know what went over me. It's night and I can get off track easily and then if it's a fight in words then it follows what I just did. *tear*
cimaron

still no change
nvm lol right when i post it, it changes
Rand please stop playing head games. If the Admin doesn't like it, he will handle it.
Now do you see why were talking about Cimaron by looking at that map?
Wow so interesting another blob.
You got way to much hate for your own good boy!
cimaron

this is better
yup same

Typhoon "PAENG" has maintained its strength and continues to move closer to Isabela and threatens Northern Luzon.
oops lol too many
.X55=......................................................
still about 9 hours until landfall..
so it could still become stronger?
Come on Rand, I'd much rather talk about Cimaron then Mr. Boring Blob.
oops make that about 7 hours

It looks a lot stronger than 160mph.
i like pie
pumpkin pie is my favorite. whats everyone elses?
It will probably continue to intensify until landfall, unless an eyewall replacement cycle occurs, which does not appear imminent, unless that red band on the south/sountheastern side wraps around in time:

not good.....not good at all
Can anybody get a windfield frame on Cimaron. The eye is small but Cimaron is a huge typhoon.
Here's our little Carib friend.




Never eat pizza and cheerios on the same day or you'll be sick all night!
Satellite derived windfield:

lol

new blog lol "Random Pie Blog"
Link
Oh so now your friends with the blob Rand, tisk tisk, what a shame!
Decent windfield considering it's eyewall size.
Interesting how the historical clipper model slams this baby right up the pipe.




Pipe?... pipe!.... p...... pi! pi! PIE!
You look lonely there Rand, I'll talk blob with you!
Theres a big split in the end of those model runs, east, west, what should be believe?
Hurry get a stretcher!
Old man down!, old man down! Hurry get the oxygen!
WWPN20 KNES 280914
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 28 2006 0833Z
.
16.4N 123.1E T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.5N 126.0E 28/2033Z IRNIGHT
15.1N 126.9E 28/0833Z VIS/IRNIGHT
ADDL POSITIONS...16.4N 123.5E 29/0536Z AMSU 89
16.2N 123.5E 29/0539Z TRMM 85/37
.
REMARKS...VERY WARM EYE (28C) IS EMBEDDED MORE THAN .95 DEGREES
IN CMG! AND VERY CLOSE TO BEING EMBEDDED IN CDG...AND IT IS
SYMMETRIC AS I HAVE SEEN. STILL EYE NO WOULD BE 6.5. AND EYE ADJ
IS 1.0 FOR SURROUNDING RING OF CDG FOR A FINAL DT OF 7.5. VISIBLE
TECHNIQUE WOULD NOT SUPPORT 8.0 AS BANDING FEATURES ARE OBSCURED
IN THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF OF THE EYEWALL AS IT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
LAST 6HRS. MET IS UNREPRESENTATIVE 6.5 FORCING THE PT TO BE
7.0..BUT PERSONAL FEELING IS 8.0...DUE MAINLY TO THE EXTREME
WARMTH OF THE EYE TEMP. FT IS 7.5 BASED ON DT. SIDE NOTE: IF
ONE FOLLOWS THE FLOW TABLE FOR OBJECTIVE VALUES IN DVORAK
1984...AN AVERAGE SURROUNDING RING OF -80C LEADS TO AN EYE NO OF
6.8 AND AN EYE TEMP WARMER THAN 16C ADDS 1.2 FOR EYE ADJ.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/1600Z.

Still talking about T8.0 and being stronger than what the Dvorak method estimates (due to constraints)... T7.5 is 180 mph, 879 mb.
I'm baking hurricane pies!
Random Pie Blog right through that link lol no joke
Must be the tunnel effect.
carpal tunnel
Why do you call me cruel names like Wish Girl?
You can't say that. You never do credit me when I bring pertinent information to this blog.
Your doing this all wrong, your looking at this the wrong way Rand.
I'm telling you, flatout your wrong.
Posting historical tracks and high school book reports are not on-topic.
This is not your blog.
This is Doctor Master's blog. You are a guest here.
You must earn your place.
But you don't get it, that's not what I do. Most subjects you call interesting on your blob, I've already looked it over and dismissed it as fear mongering.
And so you have no place to earn! ya right sure!
All you ever do is post other peoples work. I rarely see anything in your own words, unless its an insult.
Your a guest to! You need to understand that.
You make the world look like an awful place on your blog, thats so not true!
No i'm stupid enough to fall for your hypocrisy. Theres millions of other people just like you in the world, your not unique Randy.
If your so good get a job with The National Hurricane, they need a few guinesses!
I do not care...nor do any of my friends here care what you have to say Wishgirl.
Here's a before and after photo shot of Cameron,LA ....Hurricane Rita was involved here.
This is why we are here.











I might go to college in Florida so you might be wrong about that last note.
I'm not, don't look at me!
I think you have more problems than me Randy!
there are all different tragedies one can have in their lives, you obviously didn't learn from yours.
You know I was thinking of being a lawyer. people tell me I like to argue, could you tell?

Goooooooood Night Randyboy!

Mike
Drain, LOL! look Link

As I said before, good night and good luck Rand my boy!
Our little invest.




631. IKE
Cimaron...161 mph winds...gusts to 195. Dang what a beast!

Morning all.
93L has gooten better organized and there is a vortex next it. I just woke up and i am surprised by the convection associated with it.
Good luck Nash....where the heck is WILSON!!!!!
I know that this is off topic but this is neat
Link
vortex next to. According to the Hurricane expert on the weather channel. He said this could be our next tropical depression conditions are marginal.
I think Wilson is moving westward still Rand:-)
Damn right he is. Just how this stuff works Nash!
Reading through some of the blog from last night, it looks like I missed an enlightening game of, "I know you are, but what am I"?
Yes, we probably will get a TD out of 93L, but not much more than that.
good morning all

my first post has now shown but here is the shear map. Still very conducive for development for about 2 days only
Link
I meant has NOT shown
well conditions are favorable i think we will get a weak tropical storm.
644. IKE
Posted By: nash28 at 7:10 AM CST on October 29, 2006.

Yes, we probably will get a TD out of 93L, but not much more than that.


I'll stick my neck out too....I agree, and it eventually gets pulled north or NE by the next cold front which clears the gulf states by next Thursday/Friday. South Florida and eastward appears a possible track.
It's possible.
The blow up this morning is typical for the Caribbean. Systems sprint through the E Caribbean and then slow beneath Hispaniola and start organising.The big high that was driving 93L W at a furious clip has been pushed E a bit by the front and 93L is now approaching the W edge of that high.A right turn will probably be in the offing soon
Nope....this is a photo of nothing. The "experts" here say the season is over.







steering winds

Link
000
WONT41 KNHC 291307
DSAAT
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
815 AM EST SUN OCT 29 2006

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE ARE
NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TODAY...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN

The wave has been moving too fast for development. Once it slows, we'll have development.
anyway I am out for the morning so will check back later this afternoon. Have a good one all
from the 8:05
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE EAST TO CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 69W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH CLEAR CYCLONIC CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID
CLOUD FIELD...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA.
SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE INCREASED A BIT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOW NOTED
FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 68W-74W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
WILLIS
653. IKE
kman...93L might go further west...from the Miami,Fl. morning discussion..."Discussion...
the southern extent of a deep layered (1000-500 mb) trough will
stall over the extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys through
Monday...as surface high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico moves
swiftly eastward into the extreme southeast United States and into
the western Atlantic Monday night."....

U may get some weather from it...sorry(crying face).
And it is moving West Skye.....very interesting.
Ike

could be. A lot will depend on how quickly the high builds back in behind yesterday's front that is already starting to lift out
a little more of the 8:05 covering all 3 areas of convection in the Caribbean this morning.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOW STATIONARY...CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH THE 29/0900 UTC PLACEMENT
BETWEEN CENTRAL CUBA AND BELIZE. AN ASSOCIATED CLUSTER OF
MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOVERING OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS
IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR...BETWEEN THE
PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDING S FROM THE EAST COAST AND
UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING THROUGH HONDURAS FROM ITS CENTER JUST
OFFSHORE SALSA BRAVA COSTA RICA. A SMALL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS ALSO ALIGNED FROM SE TO NW THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN...THAT
HAS ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS ON THE PVA SIDE OF THE AXIS JUST S OF
JAMAICA. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AREA ALSO LIKELY
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY. AN UPPER HIGH IS NEAR THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS THAT IS AFFECTING THE NRN CARIBBEAN. UPPER
DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND AN UPPER LOW JUST S OF THE
ABC ISLANDS IS HELPING TO SUPPORT THE CONVECTION NEAR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 69W. THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY
WHILE THE FRONT OVER THE NW PORTION GRADUALLY BECOMES
DIFFUSE.
bb later
Yes west...wweeesssssttttt, westy, west, west. lol

The shear is near nil in the Caribbean
morning all.....93L flaring up again????? kman hoping it swings north, drakoen confused, rand and wishcaster biting each other, a huge syetem dumping loads of moist on my head, what a wonderful morning. I think I'll sing a joyful ditty to the sounds of atmospheric bass drums.
Oh Lord, The Glorious Mornin Come,
Alleloooooya
Amen.............
West by God West.
Cimaron is about to make landfall in the phillippines.
Cimaron kickin 140kts, 898mb.

that's 161mph, he's cat 5 at landfall.....
"morning all.....93L flaring up again????? kman hoping it swings north, drakoen confused, rand and wishcaster biting each other, a huge syetem dumping loads of moist on my head, what a wonderful morning. I think I'll sing a joyful ditty to the sounds of atmospheric bass drums.
Oh Lord, The Glorious Mornin Come,
Alleloooooya
Amen............."
I am a little confused yesterday there was hardly ny convection with it, now it looks like it could become a TD. there is a vortex next to according to the hurricane expert on the weather channel. I think we might get a weak tropical storm out of this if this continues. Notice the cloud cloud top on the satellite imagery.

They aren't Randrewl, it's tropical weather. If you had been here last winter you would know that. Go ahead, - a cat 5 landfall that is happening right now.
WWPN20 KNES 280914
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 28 2006 0833Z
.
16.4N 123.1E T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.5N 126.0E 28/2033Z IRNIGHT
15.1N 126.9E 28/0833Z VIS/IRNIGHT
ADDL POSITIONS...16.4N 123.5E 29/0536Z AMSU 89
16.2N 123.5E 29/0539Z TRMM 85/37
.
REMARKS...VERY WARM EYE (28C) IS EMBEDDED MORE THAN .95 DEGREES
IN CMG! AND VERY CLOSE TO BEING EMBEDDED IN CDG...AND IT IS
SYMMETRIC AS I HAVE SEEN
. STILL EYE NO WOULD BE 6.5. AND EYE ADJ
IS 1.0 FOR SURROUNDING RING OF CDG FOR A FINAL DT OF 7.5. VISIBLE
TECHNIQUE WOULD NOT SUPPORT 8.0 AS BANDING FEATURES ARE OBSCURED
IN THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF OF THE EYEWALL AS IT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
LAST 6HRS. MET IS UNREPRESENTATIVE 6.5 FORCING THE PT TO BE
7.0..BUT PERSONAL FEELING IS 8.0...DUE MAINLY TO THE EXTREME
WARMTH OF THE EYE TEMP. FT IS 7.5 BASED ON DT. SIDE NOTE: IF
ONE FOLLOWS THE FLOW TABLE FOR OBJECTIVE VALUES IN DVORAK
1984...AN AVERAGE SURROUNDING RING OF -80C LEADS TO AN EYE NO OF
6.8 AND AN EYE TEMP WARMER THAN 16C ADDS 1.2 FOR EYE ADJ.

.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/1600Z.

6.8 + 1.2 = 8.0; T7.5 = 155 kts/180 mph, 879 mb; T8.0 = 170 kts/195 mph, 858 mb!
You guys are a hoot!
Morning to you nash. Like a bunch of owls.........
& that was a TS 3 days ago...a Max Mayfield nightmare.
thunder moving overhead me now, I may have to shut down soon.........
Landfall:



160 mph (JTWC)
180-195 mph (SSD bulletins)

JTWC possibly decided not to upgrade it to 155 kts or so because it was aready close to land at the time.
Stay safe Pottery.
673. IKE
Looks like 93L is headed for Jamaica right now.
In the phillippines Cimaron is known as Typhoon Paeng, here's the most recent article & a few highlights.

"I appeal to you not to venture out if there is no need for that. Let's follow the order of our officials and let us all pray," Arroyo said in a message broadcast over nationwide radio.

Paeng, the 16th weather disturbance to affect the country this year, could mess up travel plans and the observance by many of All Saints' Day on Wednesday, when millions troop to cemeteries to remember their dead.

Some travel days in advance to provinces to pay homage to their dead.
The Office of Civil Defense said disaster-response teams in provinces along the typhoon's path were on standby to evacuate or rescue people.

The only definition of paeng I could find is... [Radical] 057 [Strokes] 08 [Total Strokes] 11 [Unicode] 5F38 [Pinyin] peng4 peng1 [Korean] paeng [Japanese] hou byou [Definition](1) A strong, stiff, bow. A bow stretched to the full. To stretch (to the maximum). (2) To fill up, be filled; to fulfill. Full, substantial. (3) A bowstring. (4) Bow-shaped. (5) The sound of a bow. (6) The sound of a curtain fluttering in the wind. [Credit] acm
Here's the web cam from the capitol Manila, it is dark over there. The camera cut out briefly then came back on line. It's far enough south I thought it may make it through the storm but maybe not.
mornin all! :)



seems to have alot of bark, and little bite...... but I never say never!
maybe at 11:00 am EDT they will make it a TD
Good morning all....bbl
HCW~ enough with the spamming for your site under different handles. To shorten special tropical disterbance statement like that looks like subtropical depression & is even more misleading & confusing.
Yeah, I agree. I thought it was a subtropical depression...
Colostate has done more work on there site, fixing the problem when a storm crosses the dateline, also I don't see any more mention of not posting their models graphics.

3 of 4 say 93L will intensify significantly..

I swear that I see a low in there - it's displaced to the west and is exposed on the west side, with the convection to the northeast and southeast of it.

Does anybody else see this?
If you look for the low - using the RGB or visible loop is the best.
i see that too in the infrared imagery
No, I see that too, and that is because of its forward speed.
lol anyone have a good link besides the one on the site for infrared and satellite imagery on 93L please?
Link cat 5 165 mph gusts 195 MPH!!!!
On cimarron if anyone has any updates as to where exactly it made landfall I would appreciate it. I have family in the phillipines and have not been able to get in touch with them.
plywoodstatenative~ check out the article on it I posted earlier, it had the towns & areas in greatest danger.
Wow its windy in nyc
stormchaser - perhaps you didn't see this:

WWPN20 KNES 280914
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT VIS/IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 28 2006 0833Z
.
16.4N 123.1E T7.5/7.5/D2.5/24HRS CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...15.5N 126.0E 28/2033Z IRNIGHT
15.1N 126.9E 28/0833Z VIS/IRNIGHT
ADDL POSITIONS...16.4N 123.5E 29/0536Z AMSU 89
16.2N 123.5E 29/0539Z TRMM 85/37
.
REMARKS...VERY WARM EYE (28C) IS EMBEDDED MORE THAN .95 DEGREES
IN CMG! AND VERY CLOSE TO BEING EMBEDDED IN CDG...AND IT IS
SYMMETRIC AS I HAVE SEEN. STILL EYE NO WOULD BE 6.5. AND EYE ADJ
IS 1.0 FOR SURROUNDING RING OF CDG FOR A FINAL DT OF 7.5. VISIBLE
TECHNIQUE WOULD NOT SUPPORT 8.0 AS BANDING FEATURES ARE OBSCURED
IN THE CIRRUS BLOWOFF OF THE EYEWALL AS IT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
LAST 6HRS. MET IS UNREPRESENTATIVE 6.5 FORCING THE PT TO BE
7.0..BUT PERSONAL FEELING IS 8.0...DUE MAINLY TO THE EXTREME
WARMTH OF THE EYE TEMP. FT IS 7.5 BASED ON DT. SIDE NOTE: IF
ONE FOLLOWS THE FLOW TABLE FOR OBJECTIVE VALUES IN DVORAK
1984...AN AVERAGE SURROUNDING RING OF -80C LEADS TO AN EYE NO OF
6.8 AND AN EYE TEMP WARMER THAN 16C ADDS 1.2 FOR EYE ADJ.

.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NMI.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/1600Z.

See here for what T7.5 or T8.0 means.
Waves betweem 25-30 ft for tha landfall of Cimaron...according to Oceanweather.
Those isobars are to blame!

Click here to see...
695. ryang
chaser come to my blog.you said you were bored
What are the chances of somebody accurately measuring the pressure at landfall on their barometer? Then we would have an idea of how strong Cimaron was at landfall (it looked far worse than, say, Rita or Katrina at peak intensity; neither of the latter had near-30*C eye temps or such cold cloud tops).
Looks like convection is seperating:

698. ryang
lol
Lesser Antilles disturbance; big money for hurricane research?
Topics of this blog.
700. IKE
Looks like the center of 93L is around 14N, 72W. Convection seems to be around the center. Whats going into DR and Haiti isn't near the center. Appears to be moving WNW toward Jamaica.
IKE - I'd say about 16N, 73W, but the most likely solution is that there are multiple lows embedded in there, so we both could be right! LOL
702. IKE
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on October 29, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite and surface data indicate that the tropical wave over the
central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized. Upper level winds are
only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation...and
development...if any...should be slow to occur. Locally heavy
rains will continue over the Dominican Republic and Haiti today.
This activity should spread into Jamaica and eastern Cuba this
afternoon and tonight as the wave moved west-northwestward. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in
areas of mountainous terrain.

Katrina was 10 times the area of Cimaron..and cant be compared to Overall impact..since its a small core storm...
Not once this AM has anyone ..thought of the Phillipino People..All i hear are Lowest MB..and comparing the Storm to others...The Phillipines are being pummeled as we speak..and Im sad to say..the loss of Life..will reflect the same.
Manila still up & powered,,Link
Hopefully this shot will be Here at Sunrise,,,Link
707. IKE
Manila is about 100 miles from the center. They may have been spared.
708. ryang
right
The saving grace may be the Forward motion,,.it continues west at 12-14 mph..and will clear the Islands in about 6-8hrs...
710. ryang
lol
I know where Manila is ..Subic Bay not a No-Name to MArines..LOL..But its the only view we can get.
712. ryang
what islands
713. IKE
It's coming in near...Casiguran, Philippines. They last reported 3 1/2 hours ago with a pressure of 29.13 and SW winds. Obviously their getting hammered.
..Its 0 hour there for the Impact..They hunkered downed for sure.Now its in Gods Hands......we wait..to hear..come tommorrow.But Im afraid that the news..will be Grim...
715. ryang
lol
They down.3.5 hrs and in it now..Like LinkIke said..heres the last report..Note the Pressure!...MAn..they getting it now....
ryang..How bout putting a TACO in yer mouth ..chewing it well...then Swallowing...LOL now THATS funny..LMBO!
718. ryang
patrap com to my blog
WWPN20 KNES 291545
SATELLITE WEATHER BULLETIN
MTSAT IRNIGHT WEST PACIFIC OCEAN
.
OCTOBER 29 2006 1433Z
.
16.5N 121.8E OVERLAND CIMARON (22W)
.
PAST POSITIONS...16.2N 124.1E 29/0233Z VIS/IRDAY
15.5N 126.0E 28/1433Z IRNIGHT
.
REMARKS...SYSTEM IS NOW OVERLAND, BUT IT CONTINUED TO HAVE A VERY
WARM EYE OF 28C UP UNTIL LANDFALL. THIS SYSTEM WAS QUITE
IMPRESSIVE.
.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.
.
THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 29/2200Z.
THIS SYSTEM WAS QUITE IMPRESSIVE.

An understatement.
721. ryang
funny patrap
722. ryang
stl come to my blog
723. ryang
lol
Hard to Find Humor in a Cat-5 impact..I ll stay here thanks ryang..Your House is a trash bin of a Blog...My Breath is not to Be wasted on mindless babbling...
Plus .Im waiting on the Saints pre-game show...
726. ryang
anyone could use my blog to talk about anything
I was beginning to wonder why Ryang was laughing at all of this....
728. IKE
Saints have their hands full today.

Good luck to them.
730. ryang
OK patrap
Thanks Ike..but the Ravens fired their off co-ordinator..during the Bye week..and theres plenty of Dissent over that..for a 4 & 2 team,Plus we got them here in the DOme...and the Crowd had a bye here last week too,So Im xpecting plenty of MAsking Drunk fools raising the roof a Lil,,,LOL
733. ryang
93L should give kman a licking
5 min till..time to lite the Pit and Salt the Ravens I gutted & cleaned..Dash of BAMM! (medium) to taste..LOL
735. ryang
anyone see hurricaneking blog
736. ryang
patrap when is halloween
737. ryang
anyone helping me to get 1000 comments before taz
hmmmmm dr m said this

My next update on this system will be Sunday evening

lol NOT!
Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 11:30 am EST on October 29, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

Satellite and surface data indicate that the tropical wave over the
central Caribbean Sea remains disorganized. Upper level winds are
only marginally conducive for tropical cyclone formation...and
development...if any...should be slow to occur. Locally heavy
rains will continue over the Dominican Republic and Haiti today.
This activity should spread into Jamaica and eastern Cuba this
afternoon and tonight as the wave moved west-northwestward. These
rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides in
areas of mountainous terrain.


Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Monday.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Beven
Re: cimaron........ 160 knt, 33 ft wave height, its 1 oclock in the night........I am thinking of the people there with a lump in my throat......
Hello anybody here its been dead for 20 minutes:0)
oi there stormchaser. why are you having wind in NYC. whats up ??????
i am here. I am noticing an increase in colder cloud tops with 93L.
Its coming down by the bucketload on me at 11n 61w again, and there is lots of electricity going on too. If you miss me for a while I have shut down again.....
still here. lots of cold tops over me too. If 93L develops a decent low, do you think it will pull this cloudmass into it and do something spectacular??
What, has everyone gone out to lunch or wha............
i don't know about that although i think it could become a TD. Its running out of time though with its forward speed. (how do i upload images?)
because of a exiting low presure:0) i gotta go!!
well, bon apetit, I'm having a beer............
drakoen, posting images is the forte of Mr. patrap. You should address yourself to his esteemed personage, at his blogsite. I havent had the time to figure it out meself........
stormchaser had to go, because of A EXITING LOW PRESSURE. I cant imagine what that could be.........
but hopefully, and with the right movement, south maybe, he'll be fine in a while........
is there a ball game on that has snatched the attention of everyone?????Its raining in my heart here and misery loves company...
the thing is, if I leave this site, it will forthwith cease to exist. Everyone knows that for anything to exist, it has to be observed. So I will man the solitary bilgepump of life, while the elements swirl unceasing aout my head, ensuring that upon your return, burping with satiated good cheer,you may find that all is well. Except in Indonesia..........
but I must leave for a moment. My dear love needs help strengthening the stand of her cactus garden, and I am mr. muscle........
STL, that is a most interesting article. Who would have thought that? Its realy a very small world we live on, made more noticeable by the knowledge that things are so intricately entwined.
The 2:05 came out at 1:05...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. THIS WAVE REMAINS WELL
DEFINED WITH A LARGE ENVELOPE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CURVATURE NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID CLOUD FIELD...BETWEEN
HISPANIOLA AND SOUTH AMERICA. SHOWERS AND TSTMS REMAIN ACTIVE
WITHIN 240 NM E AND 180 NM W OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER THESE SHOWERS
ARE DISORGANIZED AND THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SFC CIRCULATION
AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE CARIBBEAN
TRIGGERED BY SEVERAL FEATURES. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE AREA IS IN
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 68W-74W...WHICH INCLUDES THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING TRIGGERED BY A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND LARGE SCALE RIDGING IN THE ATLC. FOR MORE DETAILS REFER TO
THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ALSO
EXISTS IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN WHERE THE TAIL END OF A WRN ATLC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STATIONARY FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO TO THE NRN
COAST OF HONDURAS. THIS PART OF THE BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO
BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND POSSIBLY BEING PUSHED SLIGHTLY W BY THE
EASTERLY TRADES E OF THE BOUNDARY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW...BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGHING
EXTENDING S FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST...IS PRODUCING CLUSTERS OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE SFC FRONT. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ALSO EXISTS IN THE SW CARIB S OF
14N W OF 74W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER
DIFFLUENT FLOW AS DESCRIBED ABOVE...AND LOW-LEVEL LIFT FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W AND THE ITCZ. SOME OF THESE TSTMS ARE
AFFECTING PARTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA LIKELY PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THE LAST AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS IN
THE SE CARIB S OF 12N E OF 65W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AND
ENHANCED BY UPPER DIFFLUENT AIR JUST SW OF THE STRONG ATLC RIDGE.

$$
CANGIALOSI
Excellent find MichaelSTL
That article on El Nio is really interesting. It emphasises to me the importance of not just focussing on what is happening in our basin (as Rand was trying to insist yesterday) but rather on trying to see and understand the entire picture.
Whoa. Its coming down hard again. 2.4" since midnight, and more coming for the next 12 hrs looks like. Ah, the sunny tropics.........
see the image at tropical floater I cant post it.
When is Jeff going to update his blog?
tropicfreak, he said sunday evening, which must be sometime soon.
How is it that Dr M. says that wind shear is minimal in the caribbean and the NHC says that conditions are only marginal for development?
Because when the NHC talks about "conditions" it comprises much more than just wind shear.

You have to factor in SST's, forward speed of the system, the interaction with land masses, etc....
I wonder
Is something going on in the gulf of honduras ??
The cloud field is starting to look suspicious, Roatan has winds out of the WNW when the rest of NW Caribbean is NNE AND Ramsdis has their storm watcher focused there

Link
NNE to the NW of the Caymans
Link
Whasupppppp Kman, what going down today in the tropics?
and NNE to the S of the Caymans
yet Roatan is WNW where the tail end of the front is sitting. Might be worth keeping an eye on
Link
Hi Wishcasterboy

More rain on the way here. keeping an eye on 93L ( looks like some spin trying to get going ) AND now I am watching the gulf of Honduras. The clouds are getting an interesting look to them just around the Roatan area on the tail end of the front
I wouldn't be surprised to see 94L pop up in the GOH in 12 hrs or so if what I suspect is going on there materialises
Could you get the best pic to display what your saying about 93L.

Mike
94L? tell me a little more.
Afternoon.all..any word from the Phillipines?...I cant find any
This is the nearest WU Site that went down as the Storm startLinked to come in ...
94L would be the next INVEST designation by the Navy site if they concluded that there was something brewing anywhere in the Atl basin that warranted keeping an eye on.
It is still too early to be calling for 94L but the tail end of a front is where we typically see development on Oct and Nov.
If convection builds overnight in the GOH it could be interesting tomorrow
Neither could I, It looks like Cimaron made landfall as a really strong cat. 5. Perhaps even sronger than is was said to be!
Well its something to look at, but I don't see much happening with it.
Going to be another brillant Sunset here near me..Link
That Camera is facing..WEST..LOLLink
Roatan now with a W wind which is strongly suggestive of a rotation to its N
Link
Well do I even need to day it.... Link
Wishcaster

Not much yet I agree but suspicious none the less
66 is a low dewpoint for that area. Could it be suggestive of dry air?

Mike
not according to the WV image
Link
It looks like quite a mess of weather down there! I find it kind of hard to separate one from the other.
I think there are two distinct areas of weather.
there is 93L moving W beneath Hispaniola and all the rest that you see in the NW Caribbean and in the GOH relates to the front that came through here yesterday
Hey gang how are things in the tropics ?
http://www.theage.com.au/news/World/Typhoon-Cimaron-hits-Philippines/2006/10/30/1162056890764.html

Link to story on Cimarron.

Link
Question Tropical Floater one is not on
93L but a Tropical wave thats very immpresive
could it become 94L? Is that the storm u guys
are talkn about?
ba back in a while
93L hasn't develope a circulation right?
Cybr

No
I was talking about the Gulf of Honduras N of Roatan island
bb in a while
Here is a quote from the story:

Typhoon Cimaron blasted roofs off homes as it made landfall in the northern Philippines, with officials saying it may be one of the most powerful storms to ever hit the country.

The president called for people to pray as hospitals and troops prepared for the worst.

Packing winds gusting up to 230 kph, Cimaron - named after a Philippine wild ox - roared across the impoverished mountainous area.

It is home to about 1.7 million people, including 250,000 in Ilagan, capital of Isabela province, where the storm came ashore.

"This is probably one of the strongest typhoons ever to hit the country," Health Secretary Francisco Duqueso told a news conference aired on Manila radio stations.

An interesting statistic about the Philippines . . .

About 20 typhoon and tropical storms lash the country each year.
What a monster!
798. amd
With super typhoon cimeron, i don't think i have ever seen that well organized of a storm at landfall, except for maybe andrew.

Hopefully the government of the Philipines (sp?) were able to evacuate as many people as possible from the affected area.

pressures in the central caribbean are low and falling in advance of 93L


Link
Kman,

I don't know if anything will eventuate with either of those spots. Neither area looks overly organized to me, and I can see what "conditions" might influence NHC to say no development likely.

However, this is the busiest I've seen the Caribbean in weeks. I also know that the area between Cayman and Central America is usually the area we can count on for formation this late in the season. So I wouldn't rule anything out . . . .
Nash..are you on?
Baha

It may be too late for 93L unless it almost comes to a stall and sits for a day or two.
I would not rule out the area to our SW though
Business is calling, good day to you all!

Mike
C U later Mike
I have a few things to do myself
Here comes the Sun..Link
That part about no deaths or missing wasn't right.
If i'm right I think there is an oil spill in the Philippeans too.
Sunset now..NOLA...Link
Pat, just checked out your page that was quite a very nice compliment thanks.
Hey crab ..nice to c ya..Thats a nice thing to say..You deserve It..all of ya..Link
Well Pat why do our Saints always do terrible after the by week?
I hijacked the Ports terminal Video Live feed..Now u can see the weather roll in LIVE..on this feed..Link it to Bookmarks..Link
Suns almost gone...Link
Beautiful sunset Patrap..

Even more beautiful is power still on in Manila, Phillippines & the sun is up...web cam
Thats some good news Skye..hope its more of the same to the North of Manila..but ..Im fearing the worst has happened..thats some poor area where it went in...any word?
Check this out Skye!..there up & reporting!...Link
Got my best wishes for our friends in the pacific they are getting a hard punch.
Yeah I fear for those folks...this was really neat from your link (I had checked it out earlier)
Im feeling better about it now..hopefully the loss of life will be minimal...
SAints got pounded..22- 35..by them Ravens...
Pat. I read today in the local paper that they are trying to get a complete official death toll on Katrina
The core was pretty small..and I believe the worst will be about a 30 mile swath..which looks to be North of that area of the link...
Yeah..my Cousin got added..after 14th Months..More like an Aunt to me..She was recovered Sunday the 4th Sept...toll now..1671..recovered Bay St. Louis...she was a retired PHD. Nurse...
I didnt even know she was at the House my Dad & Grandfather built..off of Hwy 90...She been there ..about 2 years...after retiring..Its the Home in my photo section..with me the Dog & Jr..standing next to theSliding glass door..outside..She was near Blossman Gas ..off the Hwy passed Lil Rays..
Sorry to hear that Pat. I often wonder how many more are not found or accounted for.
Still hard to picture this 6ft of water there..man o man....
I understand I had about 7.5 around me but it did not stay as long.
But ..sand.I tell ya..THose pics of the House...was taken in October..and we didnt Know she passed,caus everyone was still scattered around the country...I got the call from her son..My cousin Casey..the day she was to be buried,2 hours before the Funeral at St,Clare.The only reason he had my number...was because the Day in October..I left a demolition flyer with my new cell.He stopped by the House..saw the Flyer...and called me.Then 5 minutes later my Sister happened to see it in the Obits in SAn ANtonio!..Man..I freaked..Jumped in the Truck dressed for Demolition..and made it to the Funeral...On the Slab of Where St . Clares used to Be...Freaking Amazing Grace...
Dress is unimportant the care is what counts.
You know..Like in the footage you sent me..this water came in..Like Big time..and left as She passed.In the New Orleans area though..it was weird..During the day..we was in the water..and those days went fast...and at Night..You was out of the water..seeing some cat 2 damage ..and the scatttered cat 3 stuff.But in a spookie way..the water got to be..almost normal..Hell...it was normal after 6-8 days...until the Troops arrived en masse..We need a freaking publisher...
Thats were we were lucky it came and went but with you guys it came and stayed.
They recovered a great uncle of mine as well, though he had died years before. He had been a merchant marine, we figured he wanted to be sent back out to sea, so that's how his second burial went down.

Sorry about your cousin Patrap.
ANd the Damage in Waveland..like on Waveland Ave on the Beach side of the tracks....and down beach road.The firedog saloon..the antiques shops..the Bridge..all freaking gone...Thats was another time I lost it,,Babbling down 90..back to the other living Hades in color...
..Ive coined a new Hurricane Damage word...I call it" Slabatized"...when the structures wiped clean..and theres nothing left but the slab..and a few pipes..sticking out...
I was on the cell with Brian Adams the director there when their EOC started blowing apart and they headed into the safe room I lost contact at that time and it was 3 days before I could see if he was ok.
I sent a runner by chopper over there to locate him.
You know..thats a good chunk inland..and when it was kicking around 10am that morning here..I was thinking...about the Coast..specially round the Bay St, Louis area Pass Christian..and such..and while me and Nova listening to the wind ramp up..I was reminded of how it looked...after Camille when I was 9.And I started crunching some numbers..about the surge,,adding the land Elevations..and kinda keeping myself occupied..Then I said..well...There in it now too.Them clinging to each other ..and hanging on to the treess and Shrubs..Man..thats deep thought.
If one visits me..I will take them there.Walk them up from the Beach..showing them the normal sea level..Then take them right there..and say Now..Thats what a 28 ft storm surge does...,sobering for sho....
I remember all to well I was in Long Beach for Cammille Katrina had nothing compared to the winds she had and the surge there was bad as well but Katrina just was so big. I was 13 at that time and man that house shook all nite long.
Colts make Field Goal to take the lead...2 secs left.Another Manning Day.Giants win too..And they say nothing good comes outta New Orleans...LOL!
evening all,
Yeah..ws here in 69..and remeber dad looking and worry about that same Home in Bay St.Louis..His parents were still there then..Katrina was such a ..500 year event I tell most.The Indians have no record of one that scope.So ..Im going with a guy who did the core sample at the 17th St. Canal..He found evidence in a peat cypress layer..in the core samples..That shows a whopper around 1200 years ago here. So..were talking a very rare event now.
why no update from the doc as yet?
Doc probably watching Football..and getting to it now that the Colts game over....
Either that or hes Getting some late morning Phillipines reports and going over the stuff...
Well Pat one thing learned when you have 2/3ds the Gulf being pushed at you look for 30 foot plus elevation and hang on.lol
well looking at the IR what was convection appears to have fallen apart totally. There is still that blob of something off of the South American Coast, but other than that what was once 93L appears to have fallen apart. So other than the systems in the Pacific, there is no need to do an update on anything in the Atlantic. Also I think that what the models were thinking about in the Caribbean has died out due to the immense amount of dry air that came with that cold front.
speaking of Cimarron, any reports of damage or injury?
All interesting question. is there a chance that we had no real serious storms this year because of all the systems last year. Can a comparison be done of the temperatures in the ocean this year, comparable to what we saw last year. So basically the thinking of how bad of a year last year was, can anything be learned in comparison to how small of a year we had, and how active the Pacific region was?
This WUnderground site was out for the event..and now its up and heres the days data..Peak winds here south of Landfall...were 90mph....but im concernd about areas to the North of here...Link
I don't know why, but I don't think the good doctor will update before tomorrow a. m. .. . .

Pat,

I know we have been remarkably fortunate here in the last 80 years or so. The hurricanes of the late 20s and early 30s were really horrendous for the Bahamas. People were generally poorer then, and the storms were not forecast at all. People drowned, were washed out to sea, and practically starved to death afterwards because all their crops and food supplies had been destroyed. I have seen some photos of Nassau after the 1928 hurricane and there was very little left . . . People still talk about 4 storms here 80 years later: 1926, 1928, 1929, 1933.
Thats how far weve come..Sad to hear of those losses...back then.Theres still lots of Living storm Memory around. People never forget those events if youve seen them.Hopefully what we do here..may impact someones decision..to seek safety ..instead of tempting fate,...those in the past..never had our luxury.
plywood, I agree, things have fallen apart a bit with 93L, but the south Caribbean is all pretty complex right now. That blob at 11n 61w has been sitting over me here since sat morning, and does not seem to be going anywhere soon. 3" of rain since midnight last night on me, and more in some areas. Not good........
Ok nite all all have a good nite and safe tommorrow.
plywood, my own feeling is that the Atlantic storms this year were generally undone by Sahara Dust ( Read very dry air) that has been more prevalent this year than ever before. Also note that it would seem reasonable to assume that there will be more dust next year than this year.
Nite crab..im going bed..too.
The thing is, plywood, that we did have serious storms. They just never hit the mainland.

So what u really are asking is "Why are the steering currents and other weather conditions so different this year?"

I think definitely the building el nino influenced the peak of the ATL season. there is plenty documentation of el nino suppression of the ATL season. I don't know what else has been going on over the last 18 months to cause the steering currents to change from last year to this, but it's obvious that a change in the patterns took place.

Another interesting question; is there any climatalogical support for years where many storms made landfall being followed by years when few storms did?
Why would u assume more dust next year, pottery?
those "serious" storms only developed when they got far enough north to miss the dust. I'm not saying this is THE reason, but it certainly appears to be a factor.
Don't forget the ULLs . . . they were waiting out there like grist mills for the Twaves . . .
pottrey the Dust is soppost to weaken next year
but for some reason NHC says it wil bea an inactive year (Just like we had 12 last year) (or The 19 we had this year)
Sahara dust was first noted in the 1960 s by Jaque Cousteau, in the atlantic. He detirmined it was caused by (among other things) the damming of the Nile at Aswan, and the polution of the Mediteranean. This changed the biological balance of the Med. causing it to warm, causing a rainfall change over north Africa, causing a southward expansion of the Sahara. The column of hot air generated there is lifting dust into the high atmosphere and it is deposited downwind, which is the Atlantic as far as Florida. More later if you want it........
Just wondering when the winter weather blog will be up. No snow, but we are getting winter like wind on the coast of maine. Has been gusting 50k or more for the last 36 hours.
baha, why were there no ULL s in the south? Dust cant float about in moist.......
"philippine news""" target="_blank">Link
cybeteddy, the only thing that could reduce the dust next year is rain in the sahara. The people there and in the Sudan and such would love that, but it isnt likely.....
pottry because the EL NINO formed in the middle of the year and they last for 4 months
Its is likley EL NINO is about to peak and then
LA NINA will come in
Happend Last year but way later
sorry folks! workin on 2 things at once and became possessed lol
cybr, so you are saying that the only thing affecting the weather systems in the atlantic this year would be the temp of the sea in the pacific. I am saying that that the dry air coming out of africa has also played a huge role. Unfortunately, there has been very little research done to back up my argument, but the good news is that for the first time, recently, scientists are looking at the corelation of the dust/weather interaction. We shall see.........
also we have to accept that historical data goes out the window, if there are major changes to the geography of land , and changes to atmospheric chemistry. Do you agree?
872. ryang
hi pottery
873. ryang
raining in trinidad
its strange, but whenever I broach this subject, every body dissapears.
ryang my lad. how are you. there used to be a weather research program in barbados in the 60 s, run by McGill university. Called HARP which I think stood for High Altitude Research Proj. or some such thing. Your mission is to find out about it , and in particular the information that was made available on Sahara dust that they collected there. It was located near the airport.
There's a new blog...

Jeff Masters
ryang, ask Pilgrim. It was known as the HARP GUN, because part of the poject involved firing a huge WW11 cannon into the night sky with flourescent stuff trailing out, looked like arora borealis, and shook the whole island every time they fired it.