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Lesser Antilles Disturbance 97L Disorganized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:14 PM GMT on September 02, 2013

A tropical wave over the Lesser Antilles Islands (Invest 97L) is moving west to west-northwest at 10 mph, and is bringing sporadic heavy rain showers to the islands. Top sustained winds observed in the islands as of 10 am AST Monday were mostly below 15 mph. Heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased in organization since Sunday, and is spread out over a larger area, as seen on satellite loops. The thunderstorms are poorly organized, and there is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation. Martinique radar shows little evidence of rotation to the echoes, and no low-level spiral bands forming. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. An area of dry air from the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounds 97L and is interfering with development, though the atmosphere has moistened since Sunday. The 12Z Monday balloon sounding from Barbados in the southern Lesser Antilles showed less than 10 knots of wind shear and a moist atmosphere. Wind shear was in the moderate range and the atmosphere was drier in the northern Lesser Antilles at Guadeloupe.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Invest 97L.

Forecast for 97L
Wind shear is expected to be low for the next five days, and ocean temperatures will be warm, 28 - 29°C. The disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere and is moving into a moister environment, so dry air will be less of an impediment to development as the week progresses. A key factor keeping the disturbance from developing over the next two days is the fact that 97L is quite large, and is stretched out from east to west over a wide expanse. Large, elongated systems like 97L usually take several days to consolidate and spin up. Another factor that will likely retard development is the presence of strong surface trade winds over the Eastern Caribbean ahead of 97L, south of the Dominican Republic. These strong trade winds are a common feature of the Eastern Caribbean, and make the region something of a hurricane graveyard. As the surface wind flow to the west of 97L accelerates into this wind max, air will be sucked from aloft downward towards the surface, creating sinking air, interfering with the formation of thunderstorm updrafts.

The models have shifted markedly in their projected path for 97L, and now take the system more to the west-northwest, bringing it near or over Hispaniola on Wednesday. A track over the high mountains of that island would disrupt the circulation of 97L, forcing the storm to regroup on Thursday over the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. The best chance for development of 97L would appear to be on on Thursday, after it has finished its encounter with Hispaniola. This morning's 06Z run of the experimental GFDL ensemble--which produces 10 simulations with slightly varying initial conditions to create a plume of potential storm tracks--foresees that once 97L organizes into a tropical depression, it might take only two days for it to intensify into a hurricane to the north of Hispaniola. However, a number of storm tracks from the 00Z Monday GFS and ECMWF ensembles foresee a more westerly track for 97L over Eastern Cuba, which would further disrupt the storm. The wave will bring heavy rain showers to the Lesser Antilles islands on Monday and Tuesday, and this activity will likely spread to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Eastern Cuba on Tuesday and Wednesday. These rains will be capable of causing life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous regions in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba. Of our three reliable models for predicting genesis, the UKMET, GFS, and European models, only the UKMET model develops the disturbance, predicting it will become a tropical depression over the Southeast Bahamas on Thursday. There will be a strong trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast this weekend, which will be capable of turning 97L to the north before the storm can hit the U.S. In their 8 am EDT Monday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC left the 5-day odds of formation of 97L at 50%, and dropped the 2-day odds to 20%. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate 97L on Tuesday.

Have a great Labor Day, everyone!

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1494. WoodyFL:


Where do you see a northern component



Thanks Woody...thought I was losing my mind. Have to remember...This is an entertainment blog.
Quoting 1497. WoodyFL:
this is the 00z . it sure looks wsw to me





You're joking right? XD
1503. JLPR2
Quoting 1497. WoodyFL:
this is the 00z . it sure looks wsw to me





Dang, if that comes to past I will definitely need an umbrella this week. :\
Quoting 1497. WoodyFL:
this is the 00z . it sure looks wsw to me





Ouch!
Quoting 1496. wxgeek723:


Does anyone else hate how the media continues to refer to Sandy with the superstorm prefix...it was good for the media circus as the event unfolded but can't we just call it Hurricane Sandy?



Not that anyone pays any attention to surface maps anymore but this 96 hr. map shows 97l over Cuba.It still appears though it should move mostly west and pass underneath cuba.

EDIT: Sorry for the double post, the computer hung up for some reason.
1508. WoodyFL
Quoting 1502. CaribBoy:


You're joking right? XD


i was trying anyways.

i've been writing since this morning that it would move north or nw regardles of how strong it was and that it had really moved back east of the islands and the wave the east would influence it. i guess the posts got lost.
Quoting 1508. WoodyFL:


i was trying anyways.

i've been writing since this morning that it would move north or nw regardles of how strong it was and that it had really moved back east of the islands and the wave the east would influence it. i guess the posts got lost.


I forgot...where in Fla. do you live?
1510. WoodyFL
Quoting 1509. GeoffreyWPB:


I forgot...where in Fla. do you live?


Las Olas Isles. thats in ft lauderdale.
Quoting 1505. TropicalAnalystwx13:



K you got me.
Quoting 1508. WoodyFL:


i was trying anyways.

i've been writing since this morning that it would move north or nw regardles of how strong it was and that it had really moved back east of the islands and the wave the east would influence it. i guess the posts got lost.


Thought the same since yesterday when it began the erratic movement just east of the islands
1513. WoodyFL
Quoting 1503. JLPR2:


Dang, if that comes to past I will definitely need an umbrella this week. :\


you were in PR right? you guys already got a lot of rain this year already i think
Quoting 1510. WoodyFL:


Las Olas Isles. thats in ft lauderdale.


Like the maps you post. Hope you stick around.
1515. WoodyFL
Quoting 1512. CaribBoy:


Thought the same since yesterday when it began the erratic movement just east of the islands


im really no expert but this is one strange storm. i thought it was just me.
0300 UTC maps still show the COC being farther south than what the MEteo France radar seems to indicate...

EDit: looking at the CIMSS vorticity maps.
1517. WoodyFL
Quoting 1514. GeoffreyWPB:


Like the maps you post. Hope you stick around.


as you see i've been around a few years but i just as well lurk. I dont have much time. Just when i see something out there. and this year not much
Quoting 1489. Walshy:
Sandy's 'freaky' path may be less likely in future

Some scientists say fluctuations in the jet stream will make similar storms less likely to hit the U.S. in the future.

WASHINGTON (AP) — Man-made global warming may further lessen the likelihood of the freak atmospheric steering currents that last year shoved Superstorm Sandy due west into New Jersey, a new study says.

Link


What's this? What have I been saying for awhile now?
1519. Walshy
Quoting wxgeek723:


Does anyone else hate how the media continues to refer to Sandy with the superstorm prefix...it was good for the media circus as the event unfolded but can't we just call it Hurricane Sandy?


It wasn't just the media tho. In fact, Jim Cisco of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center coined the term "Frankenstorm". CNN then banned that name and most of the media went with Superstorm Sandy because it was embraced by climate change proponents as a term for the new type of storms caused by global warming.
Quoting 1499. RascalNag:
So what is going to bring 97L to the north? Steering winds and ridging seems to be set up to take it WSW.


It probably has something to do with that separate area of convection to the east pulling it around in its cyclonic flow. I haven't done enough (read: none) analysis on that secondary convective complex to determine if it's an extension of the parent tropical wave (97L) or not, but I did recall seeing a couple of model runs the other day showing two vorticity lobes heading in opposite directions; one northwest, the other west. I ignored it then, considering it an amusing triviality, but now it appears they might have actually been onto something more definite.

If it's actually the southern portion of the tropical wave, it may need to be monitored as a possible candidate for secondary tropical cyclone formation.

Anyways, I still submit that as the only plausible reason as to why the models want to immediately move it northwest. The synoptic pattern still doesn't favor what they say it does.
1521. FWBRuss
Quoting 1498. seer2012:


Not that anyone pays any attention to surface maps anymore but this 96 hr. map shows 97l over Cuba.It still appears though it should move mostly west and pass underneath cuba.
Seer, I grew up with surface charts aviating in the 70's. Been a long time! Your view shows limited over the AOI, what's you take? (Hoping someone can still read them, and blow dust off past) My AOI is northwest FL. I see an occluded front forming (and agrees with sucky weather noted) but...not enough zoom on tropics. Need help reading there.
Quoting 1519. Walshy:


It wasn't just the media tho. In fact, Jim Cisco of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center coined the term "Frankenstorm". CNN then banned that name and most of the media went with Superstorm Sandy because it was embraced by climate change proponents as a term for the new type of storms caused by global warming.


I'm of the opinion that unusual meteorological events do not rightfully count as "superstorms". The name is completely stupid.
For all you folks waiting to see a Hurricane and that includes myself, you might have to wait a while longer as I just looked at the current satt. loop and all I could see was a just a chaotic mess of garbage moving in ten different directions with no rhyme or reason what so ever. Consider it lucky if we get to ten names this season the way things are going with all this dry air around.
Hmm, and about that stuff to its East, satellite seems to show a quickly organizing circulation... vorticity maps also support this at all levels. Seems like we may indeed face two storms.
Quoting 1523. HurriHistory:
For all you folks waiting to see a Hurricane and that includes myself, you might have to wait a while longer as I just looked at the current satt. loop and all I could see was a just a chaotic mess of garbage moving in ten different directions with no rhyme or reason what so ever. Consider it lucky if we get to ten names this season the way things are going with all this dry air around.


I don't think the dry air alone tells the whole story. I can't immediately cite any alternative factors, but with an in-depth post-season analysis we'll probably at least be able to have some decent ideas.
Quoting 1522. KoritheMan:


I'm of the opinion that unusual meteorological events do not rightfully count as "superstorms". The name is completely stupid.


Better than what Fox News put up, "Monster Storm Sandy." LOLwut
Like I mention earlier, I wouldn't be surprise if the Boc system gets Gabrielle after all this madness with 97L!! Don't be shocked if that happens!!!
Quoting 1519. Walshy:


It wasn't just the media tho. In fact, Jim Cisco of the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center coined the term "Frankenstorm". CNN then banned that name and most of the media went with Superstorm Sandy because it was embraced by climate change proponents as a term for the new type of storms caused by global warming.


Oh I know the whole story lol I totally advocate the Frankenstorm moniker.
Quoting 1528. RGVtropicalWx13:
Like I mention earlier, I wouldn't be surprise if the Boc system gets Gabrielle after all this madness with 97L!! Don't be shocked if that happens!!!


Humberto sounds more fitting of a powerful hurricane anyway.
Quoting 1528. RGVtropicalWx13:
Like I mention earlier, I wouldn't be surprise if the Boc system gets Gabrielle after all this madness with 97L!! Don't be shocked if that happens!!!


Not at all.

In the wundermap there is a weather station in Dominica that is set in rapid scan with live updates. The predominant wind direction in that station is NNE -NE @ 34-38km/h

The center appears to be over o just east of Martinique.
Quoting 1530. KoritheMan:


Humberto sounds more fitting of a powerful hurricane anyway.

Agreed!
Quoting 1526. KoritheMan:


I don't think the dry air alone tells the whole story. I can't immediately cite any alternative factors, but with an in-depth post-season analysis we'll probably at least be able to have some decent ideas.
Im sure after all is said and done we will for sure understand why this season fell flat on it's face and was just a dreadful flop. But as for the present, the obvious factors are the dry air and the dust (SAL) with perhaps a little bit of wind shear thrown in for good measure.


Skip to 1:54.00, I was in that chase vehicle with the PSU Storm Chase team!
1536. Relix
I doubt 97L is gonna make it before PR or DR
Hey, Florida State alumbis or current students?

Your QB is a freak of nature and I like what I saw from him tonight. Your team should do well this season.

On topic: I'm not posting a new blog post because the storm will just do the other way whatever I write lol.
Quoting 1530. KoritheMan:


Humberto sounds more fitting of a powerful hurricane anyway.


Disagree. I think the sweet names make it more ominous...besides who is running from a storm named Humberto? I know I'm not :p
1539. FWBRuss
Quoting 1522. KoritheMan:


I'm of the opinion that unusual meteorological events do not rightfully count as "superstorms". The name is completely stupid.
Koritheman, I'm a lurker for many years, you come off here with a sly slant, butI respect your input! A little compasion would help, but none the less....you do speak wisdom that I wish I had. Thanks Man!
Quoting 1539. FWBRuss:
Koritheman, I'm a lurker for many years, you come off here with a sly slant, butI respect your input! A little compasion would help, but none the less....you do speak wisdom that I wish I had. Thanks Man!


I'll take that as a compliment. ;)
Definitely looks like the COC of 97L is right over Martinique right now; not sure what CIMSS is going for by putting the highest vorticity as far south as it is. AS of right now it looks like the LLC is trying to wrap itself in rain clouds, looks to be almost there based on the wundermap radar.
1542. JLPR2
Quoting 1513. WoodyFL:


you were in PR right? you guys already got a lot of rain this year already i think


Yes and Yes, there is a reason for the PR in my handle. :P

We had the wettest July on record and June came in third or fourth. August was a bit above normal and May was at least 3times the normal.

Yeah, it has rained... a lot.
What an inmense low area in 60hrs...

1544. Relix
Quoting 1542. JLPR2:


Yes and Yes, there is a reason for the PR in my handle. :P

We had the wettest July on record and June came in third or fourth. August was a bit above normal and May was at least 3times the normal.

Yeah, it has rained... a lot.


Tomorrow should be a fu day then. I doubt it will make it to TS status but lots of rain for sure.
1545. FWBRuss
Quoting 1540. KoritheMan:


I'll take that as a compliment. ;)
Taken appropriately! :))
1546. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm of the opinion that unusual meteorological events do not rightfully count as "superstorms". The name is completely stupid.


I feel that way with how the weather channel names winter storms. What's your opinion on that?
Quoting 1537. Bluestorm5:
Hey, Florida State alumbis or current students?

Your QB is a freak of nature and I like what I saw from him tonight. Your team should do well this season.

On topic: I'm not posting a new blog post because the storm will just do the other way whatever I write lol.

I was not impressed at all they run the west coast offense to many short passes and quick completions he doesn't have a good arm at all. The ball come out too slow for me!!
Quoting 1546. Walshy:


I feel that way with how the weather channel names winter storms. What's your opinion on that?


It's equally retarded.
Quoting 1521. FWBRuss:
Seer, I grew up with surface charts aviating in the 70's. Been a long time! Your view shows limited over the AOI, what's you take? (Hoping someone can still read them, and blow dust off past) My AOI is northwest FL. I see an occluded front forming (and agrees with sucky weather noted) but...not enough zoom on tropics. Need help reading there.

I haven't found the maps for the Carribean yet, still looking. Like you I have an aviation background(A&P mechanic). Worked on C-130's, Cessana 150 and 172, Piper Aztec and had some flight training time with the fbo I worked for.I also worked for Eastern airlines, Boeing 727's, DC-8's.
I unfortunately don't remember very much of how to read these maps with much expertise.(I am dealing with some memory loss stuff. Sometimes it's like a fog)I think though I give them a little more credence than some of the computer models that are being used.
just my opinion of radar and current conditions....i think were past west winds showing up in st. lucia...im looking for sw/ssw/s compared to where the coc seems to be just east or crossing over martinique. i have a feeling martinique will have a wind shift within the next 2 hours...

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Quoting 1548. KoritheMan:


It's equally retarded.

I don't agree.
1552. WoodyFL
I never understood why they called this one a super storm in 1993



Quoting 1551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't agree.


I do.
Quoting 1528. RGVtropicalWx13:
Like I mention earlier, I wouldn't be surprise if the Boc system gets Gabrielle after all this madness with 97L!! Don't be shocked if that happens!!!




LOL I don't see any thing comeing from the BOC there is other ULL in there right now and 97L is a big old mess of nothing don't be fooled but if any thing going too fourm overe the next 24 too 36hrs I think 98L would have the best shot out of are two other storms where tracking too get named 1st 97L and that BOC storm is going too need too do a lot of hard work be for they can get named
Quoting 1537. Bluestorm5:
Hey, Florida State alumbis or current students?

Your QB is a freak of nature and I like what I saw from him tonight. Your team should do well this season.

On topic: I'm not posting a new blog post because the storm will just do the other way whatever I write lol.


Dang straight - Go 'Noles!

G'evening folks - a whole lot of a mess throughout the Caribbean/GOM, how anyone can make sense out of it at the moment is beyond my understanding.
Drier air bubble almost here...

Quoting 1543. sunlinepr:
What an inmense low area in 60hrs...

Quoting 1544. Relix:


Tomorrow should be a fu day then. I doubt it will make it to TS status but lots of rain for sure.


I am in Hato Rey!
What do you guys think this system will do?
This system reminds me of Hortense.
1558. FWBRuss
Quoting 1545. FWBRuss:
Taken appropriately! :))
What's your thoughts on Yucatan energy being a player in the eastern GOM? Seems Carib moisture my pump enough energy to be a player. Western Gulf seems blocked, bbut my change 4-5 days out.
Quoting 1549. seer2012:

I haven't found the maps for the Carribean yet, still looking. Like you I have an aviation background(A&P mechanic). Worked on C-130's, Cessana 150 and 172, Piper Aztec and had some flight training time with the fbo I worked for.I also worked for Eastern airlines, Boeing 727's, DC-8's.
I unfortunately don't remember very much of how to read these maps with much expertise.(I am dealing with some memory loss stuff. Sometimes it's like a fog)I think though I give them a little more credence than some of the computer models that are being used.


Based in Miami?
Quoting 1547. Camille33:

I was not impressed at all they run the west coast offense to many short passes and quick completions he doesn't have a good arm at all. The ball come out too slow for me!!
Rather lot of short passes to move up the field than deep passes that work only half of times.
Quoting 1551. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't agree.


Yeah we recall your fervent battles with anyone who opposed the idea. "IT TRENDED ON TWITTER"


See not to restart the debate but I don't understand why winter storms would require a unique identifier. It was an idea I was latched onto in like the 6th grade, lol. Anyway I know everyone on WU is like "you can ignore the names if you really way to" but the problem is WU is one of my prime sources for weather info and well they kind of shoved the names down your throat.
Quoting 1557. HuracandelCaribe:


I am in Hato Rey!
What do you guys think this system will do?
This system reminds me of Hortense.


Here in Caguas, for the moment, seems we will have lots of rain for some days..... Models are inacurrate due to the fact that there is no development in any of those systems.... The data they rely on is based on past storms and hurricanes not Invests....
Quoting 1554. Tazmanian:




LOL I don't see any thing comeing from the BOC there is other ULL in there right now and 97L is a big old mess of nothing don't be fooled but if any thing going too fourm overe the next 24 too 36hrs I think 98L would have the best shot out of are two other storms where tracking too get named 1st 97L and that BOC storm is going too need too do a lot of hard work be for they can get named

What's the lol'ing about. Is the NHC joking at this no. NHC has it as a aoi. Probably will get tagged 99L tomorrow. Btw look where Fernand came from?? This is a sneaker.
Quoting 1556. sunlinepr:
Drier air bubble almost here...



outer layer of more moist air from 97l gonna beat it to you...lol
Quoting 1561. wxgeek723:


Yeah we recall your fervent battles with anyone who opposed the idea. "IT TRENDED ON TWITTER"


See not to restart the debate but I don't understand why winter storms would require a unique identifier. It was an idea I was latched onto in like the 6th grade, lol. Anyway I know everyone on WU is like "you can ignore the names if you really way to" but the problem is WU is one of my prime sources for weather info and well they kind of shoved the names down your throat.

K you got me.
Quoting 1537. Bluestorm5:
Hey, Florida State alumbis or current students?

Your QB is a freak of nature and I like what I saw from him tonight. Your team should do well this season.

On topic: I'm not posting a new blog post because the storm will just do the other way whatever I write lol.


Looks like a basin-jumper in the BOC. THAT is GOOD. Models showing something in the GOM, we all derived from the TWave up against the YUC, looks like it's gonna have some assist.
Quoting 1547. Camille33:

I was not impressed at all they run the west coast offense to many short passes and quick completions he doesn't have a good arm at all. The ball come out too slow for me!!


41-13 first game, you always have to shake off the rust
just my opinion of radar and current conditions....i think were past west winds showing up in st. lucia...im looking for sw/ssw/s compared to where the coc seems to be just east or crossing over martinique. i have a feeling martinique will have a wind shift within the next 2 hours...

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Quoting 1564. watchingnva:


outer layer of more moist air from 97l gonna beat it to you...lol


And it's going west...right?
Quoting 1565. TropicalAnalystwx13:

K you got me.


<3 u cods
Hey guys, I want to share with you what I think could be the track of Invest 97L or future Cyclonic System.

Quoting 1564. watchingnva:


outer layer of more moist air from 97l gonna beat it to you...lol


Depending if the ULL keeps strong and blows this new convection to the NE absorbing it....

Anyhow, looks like the only event that could put an end to all this mess it the front moving SE from Conus.... but it looks weak

Quoting 1559. daddyjames:


Based in Miami?

yes.Second job out of the Air force. The first one was Southern Air Transport, a CIA operation doing their stuff in central America.
1574. Walshy
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's equally retarded.


I think if the NWS did it and got the media to follow along with different criteria and timing it could have created the hype the weather channel was looking for. Good idea just the wrong executioner.
1575. FWBRuss
Quoting 1549. seer2012:

I haven't found the maps for the Carribean yet, still looking. Like you I have an aviation background(A&P mechanic). Worked on C-130's, Cessana 150 and 172, Piper Aztec and had some flight training time with the fbo I worked for.I also worked for Eastern airlines, Boeing 727's, DC-8's.
I unfortunately don't remember very much of how to read these maps with much expertise.(I am dealing with some memory loss stuff. Sometimes it's like a fog)I think though I give them a little more credence than some of the computer models that are being used.
LOL! I started an aviation career on Cessna 150's and 172's,went broke right as Embry Riddle excepted me. Shifted to electronics and became a premier Field Engineer at Eglin. My test site is 200' from the beach and I own 5 differet kinds of boats......always need weather input for job and pleasure!
Quoting 1552. WoodyFL:
I never understood why they called this one a super storm in 1993






Look at it...
TA13 - the other night you mentioned that the "M" at the ATCF data indicates medium. i understand that - does that not indicate that, at least for model purposes, the circulation is assumed to extend into the mid-levels of the atmosphere? Would that not be 400-500 mb?
Quoting 1573. seer2012:

yes.Second job out of the Air force. The first one was Southern Air Transport, a CIA operation doing their stuff in central America.


Dad worked down there - from '72 until they locked the doors.
Pretty sad - a good example of what hubris and personal vandettas can do to a company.

1579. Walshy
Quoting 1574. Walshy:


I think if the NWS did it and got the media to follow along with different criteria and timing it could have created the hype the weather channel was looking for. Good idea just the wrong executioner.


Why would the NWS want to do it - "executioner" is that a Freudian slip?

Edited: Whomever thought of it should be shot - originally added this to the wrong post ;D
Quoting 1574. Walshy:


I think if the NWS did it and got the media to follow along with different criteria and timing it could have created the hype the weather channel was looking for. Good idea just the wrong executioner.


Key difference here: I think TWC was just going for ratings. If the NWS did it, the agenda would be the opposite.
Quoting 1566. redwagon:


Looks like a basin-jumper in the BOC. THAT is GOOD. Models showing something in the GOM, we all derived from the TWave up against the YUC, looks like it's gonna have some assist.




The EPAC portion of that YUC Twave could spin up and head East! It's not without precedent.
Quoting 1569. GeoffreyWPB:


And it's going west...right?


i personally think 97ls weak circulation is currently moving wnw....with a slight nothern tick over due west...lol
Quoting 1573. seer2012:

yes.Second job out of the Air force. The first one was Southern Air Transport, a CIA operation doing their stuff in central America.


Would that be - ahem - what became known as the Iran-Contra affair? Among other things?
I will admit though, Saturn was a cool name for a storm.


Also known by Jersey Shore residents as Sandy Jr.
1587. Hangten
Quoting 1578. daddyjames:


Dad worked down there - from '72 until they locked the doors.
Pretty sad - a good example of what hubris and personal vandettas can do to a company.

Edit: Whomever thought of it should be shot.


I worked for Eastern in Miami. I was in Building 16 and 5A on the corner of Le Jeune and 36th street and also at the airport
Quoting 1577. daddyjames:
TA13 - the other night you mentioned that the "M" at the ATCF data indicates medium. i understand that - does that not indicate that, at least for model purposes, the circulation is assumed to extend into the mid-levels of the atmosphere? Would that not be 400-500 mb?

If TA13 can't answer - anyone else, please jump in.
The positive fact about naming Winter storms is that they can refer collected data to a named system.. They can create a knowledgebase and even create and polish winter forecasting models.... even calculate ACE values for winter storms and who knows if correlate winter season with hurricane season.... and that creates jobs for meteorologists....
Quoting 1585. daddyjames:


Would that be - ahem - what became known as the Iran-Contra affair? Among other things?
Yea,they had a C-130, a couple of ww2 bombers, B-25's I think. Twin engine planes.
1591. FWBRuss
Quoting 1581. KoritheMan:


Key difference here: I think TWC was just going for ratings. If the NWS did it, the agenda would be the opposite.
1558 question was for you. Sorry i linked wrong!
97L getting it's self together for now...

August 2013 - GOES EAST Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

1594. FWBRuss
Quoting 1590. seer2012:
Yea,they had a C-130, a couple of ww2 bombers, B-25's I think. Twin engine planes.
Mybe some ALQ-69's or 72's, and maybe why Costa Rica has a nice restaurant?
1595. JRRP

Quoting 1587. Hangten:


I worked for Eastern in Miami. I was in Building 16 and 5A on the corner of Le Jeune and 36th street and also at the airport


My dad worked out of both - I believe (it has been a while). He was in management - worked his way up from selling tickets in the 60's. Originally based in New York, but moved to Miami in '72.

One of the postions he held was advocating for new gates/routes - back when the airlines were regulated. Don't ask me what else he did. He did it all, including working as a mechanic at the end (sorry seer if you happened to be on the other side).
Quoting 1587. Hangten:


I worked for Eastern in Miami. I was in Building 16 and 5A on the corner of Le Jeune and 36th street and also at the airport

I believe that was the brake rebuild and hydraulic shop in that bldg.
Quoting 1589. sunlinepr:
The positive fact about naming Winter storms is that they can refer collected data to a named system.. They can create a knowledgebase and even create and polish winter forecasting models.... even calculate ACE values for winter storms and who knows if correlate winter season with hurricane season.... and that creates jobs for meteorologists....


They did that all before - I agree with Kori, all for ratings and drama.

"Winter Storm Zeus (with the appropriate music behind it) is so much more dramatic than "A storm with a low pressure center at 999 mb . . . "
Quoting 1595. JRRP:
No west winds...hmmm
1600. FWBRuss
Quoting 1596. daddyjames:


My dad worked out of both - I believe (it has been a while). He was in management - worked his way up from selling tickets in the 60's. Originally based in New York, but moved to Miami in '72.

One of the postions he held was advocating for new gates/routes - back when the airlines were regulated. Don't ask me what else he did. He did it all, including working as a mechanic at the end (sorry seer if you happened to be on the other side).
LOL! First of September and covered in blues..So was the turnpike from Stockridge to Boston..Rockabye Sweet Baby James!
Quoting 1600. FWBRuss:
LOL! First of September and covered in blues..So was the turnpike from Stockridge to Boston..Rockabye Sweet Baby James!


LOL - of course, a personal favorite of mine :D
1602. FWBRuss
Quoting 1601. daddyjames:


LOL - of course, a personal favorite of mine :D
I figured, LOL, just 3 miles behind us and 3000 miles to go. Sounds like tropics to me! ;o)
Quoting 1589. sunlinepr:
The positive fact about naming Winter storms is that they can refer collected data to a named system.. They can create a knowledgebase and even create and polish winter forecasting models.... even calculate ACE values for winter storms and who knows if correlate winter season with hurricane season.... and that creates jobs for meteorologists....


I'll take your word for it :) Growing up in New England where winter storms were regular occurrences, I wonder what the criteria would be? What storms get named? Nor'easters? Blizzards? Exclude the Alberta clippers? Some winters it's one event after another. Sure, there are 'stand out' events (major ice storms, blizzards, large snowfalls) - would these be named, and not the others??

Just wondering...
1604. Hangten
Quoting 1596. daddyjames:


My dad worked out of both - I believe (it has been a while). He was in management - worked his way up from selling tickets in the 60's. Originally based in New York, but moved to Miami in '72.

One of the postions he held was advocating for new gates/routes - back when the airlines were regulated. Don't ask me what else he did. He did it all, including working as a mechanic at the end (sorry seer if you happened to be on the other side).


Then I must have known him. I started in NY at 10 Rock (Rockefeller Plaza) and then Miami in 1972. I was in acquisitions but also worked in International finance. We were all under the CAB regulations at the time. The mechanics building was next to ours. I believe it was building 22. There was a group of us that developed the construction of Pittsburgh Airport and acquired the South American routes. Some memories
Well, we will see tomorow what 97L will do....

Meanwhile we have to prepare for what President Putin and his followers (sons) will do....

We better be careful with the sons of Putin....

........... ;)

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it would be nice if we were about 50 miles east and had data where its missing...of course i dont think theres west winds currently or if there is....the movement is counteracting them out...lol...maybe we will get lucky with the next pass...
Good evening, everyone! I hope you all had a lovely Labor Day.

I checked in this afternoon, and to my surprise saw 3 yellow circles. I see the Yucatan one has gone from 10 to 20%. Any thoughts on this?
1608. Hangten
Quoting 1597. seer2012:

I believe that was the brake rebuild and hydraulic shop in that bldg.


No Building 16 was the high rise executive building and 5A was the financial building. I worked in those the longest. The mechanics building was next door, which was building 22. Building 11 was the Computer Science building attached to building 16.
1609. FWBRuss
Quoting 1605. sunlinepr:
Well, we will see tomorow what 97L will do....

Meanwhile we have to prepare for what President Putin and his followers (sons) will do....

We better be careful with the sons of Putin....

Traduccion por favor.... ;)
The times they be a changin'. Good to note other weatherstorms in this world. Thanks!
and out of curiousity...i used to know but have forgotten...with the ascat maps...i know the top timestamp is when the map is released...but isnt the purple timestamp at the bottom when the actually swath was recorded...
1611. Walshy
Had the EURO been right with a deeper south-west turn after landfall I believe more people would have prefered superstorm over hurricane. It would have brought the snow off the mountains into the Piedmont areas of VA and NC.



Quoting 1604. Hangten:


Then I must have known him. I started in NY at 10 Rock (Rockefeller Plaza) and then Miami in 1972. I was in acquisitions but also worked in International finance. We were all under the CAB regulations at the time. The mechanics building was next to ours. I believe it was building 22. There was a group of us that developed the construction of Pittsburgh Airport and acquired the South American routes. Some memories


You may have! Like I said, he bounced around so much, as the industry changed and as the company was run into the ground that I would not know all of the positions he had. He does have the same first name as I do. Unfortunately, his memory is not doing so good these days, so he probably does not recall to much . . . :(

Getting old should be reserved for the young ;)
Quoting 1603. LAbonbon:


I'll take your word for it :) Growing up in New England where winter storms were regular occurrences, I wonder what the criteria would be? What storms get named? Nor'easters? Blizzards? Exclude the Alberta clippers? Some winters it's one event after another. Sure, there are 'stand out' events (major ice storms, blizzards, large snowfalls) - would these be named, and not the others??

Just wondering...


Could get complicated, just like now the Invest consideration in the Hurricane season creates a lot of discussion....

For me the positive fact is that you correlate or link data to a named event... and that gives you a measured reference that can be used for forecasting...

And the best is the jobs you create to justify it...
Quoting 1608. Hangten:


No Building 16 was the high rise executive building and 5A was the financial building. I worked in those the longest. The mechanics building was next door, which was building 22. Building 11 was the Computer Science building attached to building 16.
Drove by for a visit 2 yrs ago and didn't recognize a thing and all the memories of what it looked like are gone.
Quoting 1607. LAbonbon:
Good evening, everyone! I hope you all had a lovely Labor Day.

I checked in this afternoon, and to my surprise saw 3 yellow circles. I see the Yucatan one has gone from 10 to 20%. Any thoughts on this?


Have you seen the GOM - at the moment its anyone's bes t guess . . .Good evening, how are things in LA?
Quoting 1612. daddyjames:


You may have! Like I said, he bounced around so much, as the industry changed and as the company was run into the ground that I would not know all of the positions he had. He does have the same first name as I do. Unfortunately, his memory is not doing so good these days, so he probably does not recall to much . . . :(

Getting old should be reserved for the young ;)


I am in total agreement.Don't get old, it's not fun!
Will the NHC still say the THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT.

When it look like this....

Mid


Upper

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THIS WAS MY UNDERSTANDING, BUT I COULD BE WAY OFF...I DONT REMEMBER WHO YEARS AGO TOLD ME THIS...
Link

850mb vorticity

Link

700mb
Link
500 mb

Still rather elongated, but the strongest vorticities are rather well aligned.
Quoting 1614. seer2012:
Drove by for a visit 2 yrs ago and didn't recognize a thing and all the memories of what it looked like are gone.


Isn't that true for all of SoFL? Even for me, not one place exists anymore where I used to hang out - except for the beach.

Always reinventing, no sense of history.
Quoting 1595. JRRP:



Winds in Barbados are SSW.
1622. Hangten
Quoting 1612. daddyjames:


You may have! Like I said, he bounced around so much, as the industry changed and as the company was run into the ground that I would not know all of the positions he had. He does have the same first name as I do. Unfortunately, his memory is not doing so good these days, so he probably does not recall to much . . . :(

Getting old should be reserved for the young ;)


They were wonderful days. We traveled all over the world, and as you know we still get traveling benefits on most airlines and cruise lines. Not the same as it was, but good enough. I'm glad you're Dad is still with you.
1623. FWBRuss
Quoting 1612. daddyjames:


You may have! Like I said, he bounced around so much, as the industry changed and as the company was run into the ground that I would not know all of the positions he had. He does have the same first name as I do. Unfortunately, his memory is not doing so good these days, so he probably does not recall to much . . . :(

Getting old should be reserved for the young ;)
Glad to see "Daddy" as first name ;) it does bring character to a man. Seriously!, and kidding, since your father and you share the same name. I'm a Jr. LABonbon has a good point.
Quoting 1618. watchingnva:

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

THIS WAS MY UNDERSTANDING, BUT I COULD BE WAY OFF...I DONT REMEMBER WHO YEARS AGO TOLD ME THIS...


this logic that i was told makes sense, since the sat scans in passes, there would have to be time in between the passes...

so if this is true, then the swath closes to 97l is over 3 hours old then.
Quoting 1620. daddyjames:


Isn't that true for all of SoFL? Even for me, not one place exists anymore where I used to hang out - except for the beach.

Always reinventing, no sense of history.

True the area I grew up in near SW high school likewise totally changed. Very few things triggered and recollection. "They" ruined a perfectly good city.
Quoting 1622. Hangten:


They were wonderful days. We traveled all over the world, and as you know we still get traveling benefits on most airlines and cruise lines. Not the same as it was, but good enough. I'm glad you're Dad is still with you.


Thanks, yes I miss being able to walk into an airport and take a flight anywhere I wanted to, for what was only pocket change.

Wish i had been able to take advantage of it more often than I actually could. Of course, spent a few times sleeping overnight in the airport . . . and there was that one time, that the agent did not like my tie, so he determined that I was not getting onto any flight while he was on shift.
Quoting 1615. daddyjames:


Have you seen the GOM - at the moment its anyone's bes t guess . . .Good evening, how are things in LA?


Things in LA are lazy (today anyway), and a little too hot for my liking(80 at almost midnight).

Just took a look at the water vapor loop. Things do look different from when I last took a peek yesterday morning...

Looks like the focus is on the eastern carib.

How are things in OK?
1628. Hangten
Quoting 1614. seer2012:
Drove by for a visit 2 yrs ago and didn't recognize a thing and all the memories of what it looked like are gone.


I know, only one building is left standing. I can hardly look when we drive by. They were the happiest days of my life. It is where my wife and I met. Oddly enough, she worked in the meteorology department. We come on here not too often. I have asked her what is her opinion of this system and tells me she has no idea. So much for a meteorologist in the family.
Quoting 1623. FWBRuss:
Glad to see "Daddy" as first name ;) it does bring character to a man. Seriously!, and kidding, since your father and you share the same name. I'm a Jr. LABonbon has a good point.


I asked the little one - when much younger than now - what my name was.

She gave me a look as if i was totally off my rocker - sure that will only continue to happen with greater frequency - and said matter-of-factly "Daddyjames".

So, I have been daddyjames ever since. ;)

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radar has looked better and better, despite the lack of west/southwest wind observations... and go figure that st. lucias weather stations have apparently stopped reporting the last 2 hours...lol
1632. Hangten
Quoting 1626. daddyjames:


Thanks, yes I miss being able to walk into an airport and take a flight anywhere I wanted to, for what was only pocket change.

Wish i had been able to take advantage of it more often than I actually could. Of course, spent a few times sleeping overnight in the airport . . . and there was that one time, that the agent did not like my tie, so he determined that I was not getting onto any flight while he was on shift.


They were strict. We had to always wear suits or jackets and they had to match. I hated when they made us pay $12 for first class. lol
1633. FWBRuss
Quoting 1622. Hangten:


They were wonderful days. We traveled all over the world, and as you know we still get traveling benefits on most airlines and cruise lines. Not the same as it was, but good enough. I'm glad you're Dad is still with you.
Love the handle "Hangten"! Was a fight for a shirt in my day, and swim suits were "to die for". Legend was surf at Cocoa from tropical storms started the legendary sportsware?
Quoting 1627. LAbonbon:


Things in LA are lazy (today anyway), and a little too hot for my liking(80 at almost midnight).

Just took a look at the water vapor loop. Things do look different from when I last took a peek yesterday morning...

Looks like the focus is on the eastern carib.

How are things in OK?


Beautiful! The front came through earlier than expected yesterday, and capped the highs to only 90. Today was fantastically gorgeous, a perfect day to end the holiday weekend.

And yes, things are different. but as said earlier, "the GOM and Carib are nothing but a bunch of circles moving in ten different directions"

It has been quite interesting reading the NHC TWDATs the past few days.
Quoting 1623. FWBRuss:
Glad to see "Daddy" as first name ;) it does bring character to a man. Seriously!, and kidding, since your father and you share the same name. I'm a Jr. LABonbon has a good point.


While I like getting credit for things (who doesn't?), I think someone else may have made a good point ('cause I'm not sure what you're referring to...)
Quoting 1548. KoritheMan:


It's equally retarded.
I agree in naming winter storms but I am against Sandy being refered as anything else than a hurricane,she was a hurricane and then an extratropical storm in the NE no need to put frankenstorm or whatever else.
97L looks to be getting more rounder and convection is organizing.
Quoting 1632. Hangten:


They were strict. We had to always wear suits or jackets and they had to match. I hated when they made us pay $12 for first class. lol


LOL - it only we could do that now . . . did not realize how spoiled we were.
and with that...im out, we will see if 97l wants to do anything in the morning....night all...
1640. JLPR2


PR's radar should have a nice view of 97L late tomorrow into Wednesday.
My own tropical update video is up:

Link
Quoting 1640. JLPR2:


PR's radar should have a nice view of 97L late tomorrow into Wednesday.


Unfortunately . . . soggy for you guys this year.

It looks like 92L is trying to resurrect from the near-death experience!
1644. FWBRuss
Quoting 1630. daddyjames:


I asked the little one - when much younger than now - what my name was.

She gave me a look as if i was totally off my rocker - sure that will only continue to happen with greater frequency - and said matter-of-factly "Daddyjames".

So, I have been daddyjames ever since. ;)
As it should be! Mine are 28 and 25, happy father for the path I took. oldest is chemist for Coca Cola, astronomist, and bootlegger, and daughter gets married...two weeks, pushing a charter boat business in Destin. Push all extra rain west to Texas. 24" at my work location in July, hit 14" in August.
1645. Hangten
Quoting 1633. FWBRuss:
Love the handle "Hangten"! Was a fight for a shirt in my day, and swim suits were "to die for". Legend was surf at Cocoa from tropical storms started the legendary sportsware?


I always wanted to be a surfer ever since I saw the movie "Endless Summer" as a young boy. I think I spent more time in the water than the board.

I want to thank james and seer for a nice walk down memory lane. I believe it is the most I have ever written.

Keep a lookout for 97 because it looks mean. I guess I a not so timid now to write something.
Good night, all. I just stopped by to check in w/ the weather aficionados. Time to put this day to bed.
Quoting 1641. TWTracker99:
My own tropical update video is up:

Link


Good job - is that your computer in the background? If it is, you're overclocking it.
Quoting 1643. seer2012:

It looks like 92L is trying to resurrect from the near-death experience!




there is no 92L there is olny 97L and 98L
Quoting 1644. FWBRuss:
As it should be! Mine are 28 and 25, happy father for the path I took. oldest is chemist for Coca Cola, astronomist, and bootlegger, and daughter gets married...two weeks, pushing a charter boat business in Destin. Push all extra rain west to Texas. 24" at my work location in July, hit 14" in August.


And bootlegger? Interesting. I wish your daughter well! Hopefully the rain will not return.
1650. sar2401
Quoting seer2012:
Yea,they had a C-130, a couple of ww2 bombers, B-25's I think. Twin engine planes.

The twin engine aircraft were On Mark upgraded B-26K's, actually furnished by Air America, which was really the deep cover operation of the CIA. It was the shoot down by Nicaraguan forces of a C-123, nominally operated by SAT by really operated by Air America, that exposed Iran-Contra. The two Air America pilots were killed, but the SAT cargo handler survived, so SAT took the fall. The B-26's were flown mostly be ex-USAF and RAF pilots on missions against Nicaragua in support of the Contras. They were not armed but had special electronics and terrain following radar that allowed them to make low level supply drops at night and in bad weather. SAT was finally sold by the CIA as a legitimate airline in 1975 and, while SAT still did some covert work, its fleet of Lockheed L-100's (stretched version of the C-130) did excellent work in famine and disaster relief work in the the 80's and early 90's. Both SAT and Air America were killed off by Iran-Contra, and SAT went belly up in 1998 and its assets were bought by a new company called just Southern, while Air America was bought by Evergreen, a major operator of helicopters and fire fighting aircraft. I know something about both these airlines because I had "dealings" with them I can't discuss, but there's no doubt in my mind both new companies are still doing covert work for the US government.

Sorry for the diversion. You can now continue to discuss models that change drastically every 6 hours. :-)
Quoting 1647. daddyjames:


Good job - is that your computer in the background? If it is, you're overclocking it.


Yeah, I know. I have to fix that.
Quoting 1648. Tazmanian:




there is no 92L there is olny 97L and 98L


92L and 97L - they resemble one another so much, difficult to disern the two (because of the elongated vorticity). Posing the same difficulty in determining what may happen. Easy error to make.
Quoting 1648. Tazmanian:




there is no 92L there is olny 97L and 98L

See, I tried to tell I was getting foggy in my thinking,but you knew which system I was referring to so stop being such a perfectionistic nitpicker when a non-critical comment is made.
1654. FWBRuss
Quoting 1645. Hangten:


I always wanted to be a surfer ever since I saw the movie "Endless Summer" as a young boy. I think I spent more time in the water than the board.

I want to thank james and seer for a nice walk down memory lane. I believe it is the most I have ever written.

Keep a lookout for 97 because it looks mean. I guess I a not so timid now to write something.
Endless Summer came out when I was about 13. I surfed, but quickly switched to sail, Just completed near 30 years of semi- yacht racing, and why I focus on wind/wave models. The rest is to ensure my toys survive.
Quoting 1645. Hangten:


I always wanted to be a surfer ever since I saw the movie "Endless Summer" as a young boy. I think I spent more time in the water than the board.

I want to thank james and seer for a nice walk down memory lane. I believe it is the most I have ever written.

Keep a lookout for 97 because it looks mean. I guess I a not so timid now to write something.


Anytime. And don't be a stranger. With exceptions of a few of us, we're all amateurs here.
As I look at the wide view of the Atlantic, I see a much more organized, rounder invest out of 97L. We may see further development later today.
1657. FWBRuss
Quoting 1649. daddyjames:


And bootlegger? Interesting. I wish your daughter well! Hopefully the rain will not return.
Thanks on daughter! Bootlegging? Son dibbles on a bit of home manufacturing of beer, wines, and occasional moonshine, for family and friends.
Quoting 1653. seer2012:

See, I tried to tell I was getting foggy in my thinking,but you knew which system I was referring to so stop being such a perfectionistic nitpicker when a non-critical comment is made.




I think all of you need too get some sleep I thin none of you evere get any sleep a round here no wounder why some of you guys go nuts you guys are on here 24hrs a day



all of you guys this needs too long off for the night and get some march needed sleep
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH
1660. sar2401
Quoting daddyjames:


Beautiful! The front came through earlier than expected yesterday, and capped the highs to only 90. Today was fantastically gorgeous, a perfect day to end the holiday weekend.

And yes, things are different. but as said earlier, "the GOM and Carib are nothing but a bunch of circles moving in ten different directions"

It has been quite interesting reading the NHC TWDATs the past few days.

DJ, have you watched all the dry air getting sucked up into the blob behind 97L? It has almost completely cut it in half now. I think there's a lot more dry air, at least at the surface, than the WV loops are showing.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 PM PDT MON SEP 2 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD
FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH
Double post.
1663. sar2401
Quoting Civicane49:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

It makes your job so much easier when you can change a few words and then copy and paste the previous forecast. :-)
Quoting 1658. Tazmanian:




I think all of you need too get some sleep I thin none of you evere get any sleep a round here no wounder why some of you guys go nuts you guys are on here 24hrs a day



all of you guys this needs too long off for the night and get some march needed sleep

any new update on rim fire or is it extinguished!
Quoting 1658. Tazmanian:




I think all of you need too get some sleep I thin none of you evere get any sleep a round here no wounder why some of you guys go nuts you guys are on here 24hrs a day



all of you guys this needs too long off for the night and get some march needed sleep

agreed! It is 1 am here and I need to be up early.
1666. FWBRuss
Quoting 1658. Tazmanian:




I think all of you need too get some sleep I thin none of you evere get any sleep a round here no wounder why some of you guys go nuts you guys are on here 24hrs a day



all of you guys this needs too long off for the night and get some march needed sleep
good on ya Taz, off to bed! hsafe ride through the night! Russ, out a here!
1667. sar2401
Quoting seer2012:

See, I tried to tell I was getting foggy in my thinking,but you knew which system I was referring to so stop being such a perfectionistic nitpicker when a non-critical comment is made.

Good luck with that thought. :-) There are so many invests and near invests that you need a scorecard to keep them straight. For example, the one on the Yucatan is just an AOI while the one off Africa is an invest, even though the AOI has a higher chance of development. I really don't understand much any longer.
1668. FWBRuss
Quoting 1666. FWBRuss:
good on ya Taz, off to bed! hsafe ride through the night! Russ, out a here!
Supposed to read " Have a safe ride through the night" ;0)
1669. sar2401
Quoting seer2012:

agreed! It is 1 am here and I need to be up early.

Was Taz asleep while he was typing his post? Pot-->Kettle-->Black.
.
Quoting 1660. sar2401:

DJ, have you watched all the dry air getting sucked up into the blob behind 97L? It has almost completely cut it in half now. I think there's a lot more dry air, at least at the surface, than the WV loops are showing.


Sorry sar - had wandered off. Yeah, it has been pretty interesting watching today and yesterday, the total collapse of any storm activity in both the blobs. Dry air looks to have a huge problem.
Quoting 1658. Tazmanian:




I think all of you need too get some sleep I thin none of you evere get any sleep a round here no wounder why some of you guys go nuts you guys are on here 24hrs a day



all of you guys this needs too long off for the night and get some march needed sleep


Sleep? What's that?

Nah, I'm finishing up a school project, that's my reason and I'm sticking to it.
Quoting 1664. Camille33:

any new update on rim fire or is it extinguished!


Around 40% contained - more or less. Expected to be fighting the fire until mid-September. Now the 4th largest fire in CA history, I believe.
Good morning, weathergeeks! ;) I trust everyone got outside on Labor Day and enjoyed themselves away from the tropics. I surely did.

BTW, speaking of tropics, taking a few quick glances, doesn't look like much has changed, same song different verse. Nothing still looks to be ready to develop. A mess still. No convergence to speak of, still dry air, mid-level trying to tote the load. The tropics just don't work that way. I could go on and on, but it would be pointless. I've serious doubts we'll see either of these three systems develop. And, I'll leave it at that.

Back to the grind tomorrow(today). Hold the fort down, keep the gates closed. Have a good sleep, and a great week, everyone! :)
Quoting 1561. wxgeek723:


Yeah we recall your fervent battles with anyone who opposed the idea. "IT TRENDED ON TWITTER"


See not to restart the debate but I don't understand why winter storms would require a unique identifier. It was an idea I was latched onto in like the 6th grade, lol. Anyway I know everyone on WU is like "you can ignore the names if you really way to" but the problem is WU is one of my prime sources for weather info and well they kind of shoved the names down your throat.


I know these posters went to bed already, but I did make a blog post about this when it came out and I had some interesting visitors to my blog on that occasion.

TWC Naming Snowflakes
Quoting 1672. Astrometeor:


Sleep? What's that?

Nah, I'm finishing up a school project, that's my reason and I'm sticking to it.


A mystical fruit found in the jungles of the Philippines.

Looks like you caught me right on time :)
Quoting 1676. wxgeek723:


A mystical fruit found in the jungles of the Philippines.

Looks like you caught me right on time :)


Philippines? Wow, Taz must be a guru or something to have so much knowledge on this fruit.

Why are you still awake? It's like 2AM over where you are, lol.
From the 2am TWDAT:

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N60W EMBEDDED IN THE ATLC TUTT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 14N61W. THUS THE WAVE HAS BEEN HELD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 61W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW AS IT CONTINUES W REACHING ALONG 70W ON WED NIGHT.

And further along . . .

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

. . . A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N60W EMBEDDED IN THE ATLC TUTT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
14N61W. THUS THE WAVE HAS BEEN HELD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 61W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW AS IT CONTINUES W REACHING ALONG 70W ON WED NIGHT.


So, the tilt has begun, and nothing much is expected for 48 hours when it should finally be somewhere around PR.

On that note, i wish you well Astrometeor with the homework (procrastinating a bit?) ;)

I am off to bed. Will catch you later.
Quoting 1677. Astrometeor:


Philippines? Wow, Taz must be a guru or something to have so much knowledge on this fruit.

Why are you still awake? It's like 2AM over where you are, lol.


Haha still haven't quite started school yet so my sleeping pattern is not mediated.
Yeah, a bit. I get bored easily. It's just cutting and gluing.
Quoting 1680. Astrometeor:
Yeah, a bit. I get bored easily. It's just cutting and gluing.


Cutting an gluing? Is this an art project? Anyways - you have me hooked on the video you posted. And agree 100% with what you wrote.

The naming of storms began historically to distinguish them from one another - especially in terms of the military in the 40's.

Prior to that, storms were only "named" if they significantly impacted an area, and obviously could have different names depending upon the different locations impacted.

The whole winter storm naming thing is an absolute joke - and in all honesty, i would not be surprised if it eventually fades away. Stupid move on TWC's part.
.
03/0545 UTC 14.8N 61.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
1684. JLPR2
I'm not sure where 97L is located, satellite imagery and radar are inconclusive, though some southerly, SSW flow seems to be evident on the radar so the circulation is trying to make a comeback. But that's all I can conclude. Once we get visible back we should be able to find 97L's circulation, if any...



1685. TXCWC
Late checking models tonight - I see GFS (on this run) showing 2 canes and a possible 3rd at the same time in the longer range outlook
My bad. Didn't see that the T number classification was already posted.
A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED
WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS
BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N60W EMBEDDED IN THE ATLC TUTT. AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR
14N61W. THUS THE WAVE HAS BEEN HELD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 61W
AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW AS IT CONTINUES
W REACHING ALONG 70W ON WED NIGHT.

2 AM Tropical Weather Discussion
1688. TXCWC
Mid-Range outlook I see we have a rare case this season so far where all 3 top performing models last couple hurricane seasons are in agreement of time and location of possible storm development

GFS


EURO


FIM-9
Quoting 1681. daddyjames:


Cutting an gluing? Is this an art project? Anyways - you have me hooked on the video you posted. And agree 100% with what you wrote.

The naming of storms began historically to distinguish them from one another - especially in terms of the military in the 40's.

Prior to that, storms were only "named" if they significantly impacted an area, and obviously could have different names.

The whole winter storm naming thing is an absolute joke - and in all honesty, i would not be surprised if it eventually fades away. Stupid move on TWC's part.


Building a Cape Cod style home for Civil Engineering & Architecture: How-To-Build-Cape-Cod. Sorta like an art project.
Bust day for the Mid-Atlantic region. I thought it was going to be a little more active than it had turned out. Oh well. On the bright side, I get to have cool temps and sunny days for the rest of the week!

1691. TXCWC
Quoting 1684. JLPR2:
I'm not sure where 97L is located, satellite imagery and radar are inconclusive, though some southerly, SSW flow seems to be evident on the radar so the circulation is trying to make a comeback. But that's all I can conclude. Once we get visible back we should be able to find 97L's circulation, if any...












TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2013

"...A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS MOVING W IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N60W EMBEDDED IN THE ATLC TUTT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS REMAINED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 14N61W. THUS THE WAVE HAS BEEN HELD NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 61W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM NE TO SW AS IT CONTINUES W REACHING ALONG 70W ON WED NIGHT..."
Everything dying down on the Eastern side of the US finally. Good night WU.

1693. vis0
CREDIT: Colo St. (de floated the images, floating bugs my vision. (apology for very low quality pic).
INVEST 97L as it approached the Antilles. 201309-01;1415_201309-02;2145U
(click for re-sizable 800x600 popup of VID)

IMG host is ImageShack®
VID host is Vidmeup.
1694. GatorWX


Movement (lol):

1695. FOREX
Quoting 1615. daddyjames:


Have you seen the GOM - at the moment its anyone's bes t guess . . .Good evening, how are things in LA?


I don't see anything moving West towards the BOC, only the big blowup of convection which is not moving West.
1699. GatorWX


1700. GatorWX
1701. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Coffee is Perked ..............
1702. GatorWX
Morning Largo!






A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1703. LargoFl
alot of storms in the gulf friday..................
1704. barbamz


Good morning with TPW. Structure of 97L (and the wave behind) became much more defined (click to enlarge). Blob at Yucatan looks interesting too, though not much of a circulation yet. Have a nice day everybody!

1705. GatorWX
Still flow off the Gulf, which has limited rain here the last three days. It's rained everyday, but nothing like when they've come from the east.




Supposed to go do some snook fishing on the beach later. Here's to catching a delicious keeper!
1706. GatorWX
You too Barb. She got her Shengen visa today, so we're good to go now! :)
1707. LargoFl
wow next tuesday....per GFS...............
August 2013 - GOES EAST Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

NO HURRICANES IN AUGUST?
WATCH THIS ANYWAY! :)

1709. GatorWX
Quoting 1707. LargoFl:
wow next tuesday....per GFS...............


Doesn't look like it develops it, but tons of moisture by the looks of that.
1710. GatorWX
Quoting 1708. CycloneOz:
August 2013 - GOES EAST Infrared Hurricane Sector Animation

NO HURRICANES IN AUGUST?
WATCH THIS ANYWAY! :)



Cool, thanks Oz. Love these compilations!
1711. LargoFl
Quoting 1709. GatorWX:


Doesn't look like it develops it, but tons of moisture by the looks of that.
yes hopefully rains for texas
1712. LargoFl
1713. GatorWX
Quoting 1710. GatorWX:


Cool, thanks Oz. Love these compilations!


I wish the weather service would put these together.

A) They could do a much better job since they have the high resolution imagery of a much wider area than "the hurricane sector" they provide the public.

B) It is a pain in the butt to download each image separately! (I've been downloading these images for years, and there is still no batch function.) And if I do not get to them in time, the images are deleted from the server forever.

There are 48 images provided per day. Times 31 days...is 1488 images to download.

It takes about six seconds (if I am lucky) to download an image. That is quite a chunk of time.
1715. barbamz
The long and rich life of tropical clouds: Understanding environmental conditions that help tropical clouds flourish
Phs.org.,19 hours ago
Scientists at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory uncovered another clue as to how tropical clouds live long and prosper. Moisture from the middle layer of the atmosphere, both before and after the clouds begin forming, is the determining factor for the lifetime of these cloud systems. When the researchers compared clouds of equal lifetime that initiate over land and over water, those over land were more intense than those beginning over the ocean, especially during the early stages. Contrary to previous studies, they found that wind shear-the change in wind speed and direction-has no discernible effect on the lifetime of the tropical cloud systems.
Tropical cloud systems are the primary drivers of the global atmospheric circulation—a huge cycle of atmospheric energy and moisture transported around the Earth affecting both weather and climate. Some environmental conditions and interactions sustain tropical storm systems, others hurry their demise. Understanding how these clouds interact with their immediate environment and the processes that sustain them is fundamental to understanding the global climate system. These environmental tip-offs help scientists and planners better predict global atmospheric reactions to tropical systems and storms. This study presents a new method to identify these interactions and quantifies their impact on the lifetime of the cloud systems.
The researchers applied a cloud-tracking algorithm to tropical convective systems in a regional high-resolution weather prediction model simulation, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Then, the environmental conditions before and after those convective systems were initiated over ocean and land. The researchers followed the systems during their entire lifecycle and quantified the comparative roles of several mechanisms of convection-environment interaction on the longevity of convective systems. They found that the statistics of lifetime, maximum area and propagation speed of the simulated deep convection agree well with geostationary satellite observations. ...

Whole article see link above.

Congrats, Josh, to the successfull preparations for your Europe journey! Guess you two are already positively excited. Weather forecast for the next 14 days (*ehem*, cristal ball) in Barcelona is fair except the coming weekend with some thunderstorms.
1716. LargoFl
looks more north today...................
1717. GatorWX
Quoting 1714. CycloneOz:


I wish the weather service would put these together.

A) They could do a much better job since they have the high resolution imagery of a much wider area than "the hurricane sector" they provide the public.

B) It is a pain in the butt to download each image separately! (I've been downloading these images for years, and there is still no batch function.) And if I do not get to them in time, the images are deleted from the server forever.

There are 48 images provided per day. Times 31 days...is 1488 images to download.

It takes about six seconds (if I am lucky) to download an image. That is quite a chunk of time.


I can only imagine, lol. I love to look at them. Really gives you an understanding of the effects of upper patterns, etc. Plus they're just cool. Thanks for taking the time!
1718. GatorWX
Quoting 1716. LargoFl:
looks more north today...................


97?
1719. LargoFl
Quoting 1718. GatorWX:


97?
yes,my guess is navy is right..up thru haiti thurs friday
1720. LargoFl
no rain here yesterday..maybe this morning hopefully..
1721. barbamz
James Reynolds %u200F@typhoonfury 6h
Wow! RT @The_Japan_News: Video of yesterday's tornado in Koshigaya taken from a car that came too close for comfort: http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/stream/m_news/vn130903_1. htm %u2026

Link to the video
Yucatan system looking very interesting now. If current trends continue expect it to become 99L later this morning.
1723. LargoFl
Bams model is determined to take 97 to the gulf.......
1724. GatorWX
Looks to be moving due west, but map would indicate wnw, then perhaps a bend back depending, I suppose, on the influence of the ULL.




Also, strongest 850mb vort is still to the south.




...on up through 500mb still too.

1725. barbamz
The latest on TS Toraji.






Western Japan warned that tropical storm Toraji may bring more rainfall, flooding
Sep 03, 2013
Right after having tropical storm Kong-rey submerged towns in western Japan over the weekend, another storm comes this week threatening more floods as heavy rainfall is expected to drench the country. This week in southern Japan will be nothing but rain as Tropical Storm Toraji will enter the country after its formation north of Taiwan. ...

I have to leave, bye for now.
1726. GatorWX
Trough will be entering the picture soon too.

-24 hrs.



0 hrs.

1727. GatorWX
Lets hope it stays away from Fukushima!!
1728. LargoFl
well unless something changes, 97 wont be a USA problem..but things can change,it will still be around down there friday...
1729. LargoFl
97L..Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Tuesday, Sep. 3, 2013 0:00 Z

Location at the time:

38 statue miles (62 km) to the ENE (57°) from Castries, Saint Lucia.

Wind (1 min. avg.):

25 knots (~29 mph | 13 m/s | 46 km/h)

Pressure:

1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:

14.3N 60.5W
1730. GatorWX
Actually, now that I look at it again (still waking), wnw seems like the current motion, not west. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I said yesterday, I'm done speculating on this one, lol. So far, it hasn't done anything I thought it would do.
1731. GatorWX
Should have a nice view from San Juan, PR radar, which is bucket loads better than that Meteo France Antilles radar.
1732. Gearsts
Not looking well but wave behind has improve.
Wassup Oz?
I just back from San Antonio.
1734. LargoFl
1735. GatorWX
If you don't have a 2 hour loop, bookmark this one.

1736. Gearsts
Center is north of martinique.Link
Morning
things have not changed dramatically, with either 97L or98L. These disturbances are tracking along their way. That being said the area of concern to me is at 13N 35W where an insignificant area two days ago, has now become an AOI. THIS COULD BE THE AREA THAT COMES UP WITH THE 1ST ATLANTIC HURRICANE.
1738. Gearsts
Should move wnw
1739. GatorWX


If I had to guess, I'd actually say it's just west of St Lucia. Near 14n 62w.

A TROPICAL WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS IT IS MOVING
W IN PHASE WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 21N60W EMBEDDED IN
THE ATLC TUTT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION HAS
REMAINED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONE
CONTINUES TO SPIN NEAR 14N61W. THUS THE WAVE HAS BEEN HELD
NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 61W AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ORIENTED
FROM NE TO SW AS IT CONTINUES W REACHING ALONG 70W ON WED NIGHT
Quoting 1733. PensacolaDoug:
Wassup Oz?
I just back from San Antonio.


Hiya Doug. I moved into a big house that was close to my old apartment.

This neighborhood I live in is very nice. I am glad to still be a resident.

Pepe is almost an adult now. I make a meat gravy for him to put in with his dry dog food. He gulps his meals down since I have been doing that.

I stopped smoking. Cuenca, Ecuador is at an altitude of 8600 feet, and also...smoking was negatively affecting my love life.

I live with my girlfriend now. She works six days a week for 11 hours per day. I cook and take care of the house.

All things considered...I would have made a great wife for someone.
1741. GatorWX
Pretty sure everything is just rotating around a mean center giving false impressions. The energy up north is interesting as it has persisted awhile.
And you look good in a dress! Not as good as Presslord tho...

Congratz on the stopping smoking. It's about time.
1743. Gearsts
good morning alittle rain yesterday eve broke the heat e cen florida
1745. GatorWX
1746. GatorWX



76F, 97% RH, 75F DP, 30% Chance of Rain here. It's rained 13 days straight, lol. Has been light the last three however.
yesterday morning 97 poofed whats is store today?
1748. GatorWX
If anyone "knows" I'd love to hear. Been a tricky one to figure out. It didn't move for about 48 hours, essentially. That alone threw a lot of curveballs into forecasting it. At least there is movement now.
Quoting 1748. GatorWX:
If anyone "knows" I'd love to hear. Been a tricky one to figure out. It didn't move for about 48 hours, essentially. That alone threw a lot of curveballs into forecasting it. At least there is movement now.



That stall sure wasn't forecasted.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. 79 degrees already, heat index 84 and it's not even 5:30 in the morning. There's a 30% chance of rain, but...

Looks like with three circles, none will affect US, but Mexico needs to watch carefully. Not sure who else could be affected by any, brain's not fully awake here.

Diana Nyad was successful in her swim from Cuba to Florida at age 64. I don't think I'd make it half a mile. My hat's off to her.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, whole wheat pancakes with fruit sauce, banana fritters, steak, eggs and hashbrowns, Egg, Sausage & Cheese Breakfast Bow, thick slices fried honey ham, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
1751. GatorWX
Africa rapid scan ir satellite.

Nice satellite to view. 98L looks to be it for some time.
thought we'd see convection in the boc early this morning. that bombed too
1753. GatorWX
Quoting 1749. PensacolaDoug:



That stall sure wasn't forecasted.


No, and I keep saying, not something I've witnessed happen in that region in early September. Trades seemed to be nonexistent at that latitude. It was very odd.

Morning aislinnpaps! ....and everyone else! Hope y'all had a great Labor Day weekend!!!
1754. GatorWX
That's a heavy one today! :)
looking for the convection of the 2nd tropical wave to wrap into 97. that would be a sign of strengthning
Quoting 1751. GatorWX:
Africa rapid scan ir satellite.

Nice satellite to view. 98L looks to be it for some time.


That wave in Sudan does look impressive and so does 98L.
1757. GatorWX
1758. GatorWX
Note the motion presently.

00z Euro by 240 hours.


06z GFS by 240 hours.


Quoting 1751. GatorWX:
Africa rapid scan ir satellite.

Nice satellite to view. 98L looks to be it for some time.
What is "it"?
1761. GatorWX
Looks as if Ft Myers is in for a nice morning shower.

1762. GatorWX
Quoting 1760. interstatelover7165:
What is "it"?


Probably wont see much action off the coast for a few days after 98L.
Quoting 1755. islander101010:
looking for the convection of the 2nd tropical wave to wrap into 97. that would be a sign of strengthning


It looks like both waves are stating to merge.
1764. Torito
GFDL and HWRF both predict invest 97L to become a hurricane between the 6th and 8th of this month....


GFDL peaks at 87kts.
HWRF peaks at 102kts.
1765. Torito
97L



98L (sorry bout the last frame lighting up :P)

1766. Torito
97L



98L

The 06z Best Track for 97L and 98L are late but here they are.

97L:

AL, 97, 2013090306, , BEST, 0, 147N, 613W, 25, 1009, LO

98L:

AL, 98, 2013090306, , BEST, 0, 97N, 163W, 20, 1009, DB
1768. GatorWX
Good shot, there's your "center".

Click for full size image.




14.3n, 62.5w
1769. Torito
1770. WxLogic
Good Morning
1771. Torito
1772. GatorWX
blog should be going bananas because of whats sw of florida guess we are conditioned "it will go poof"


Morning all....Here is the GFS models at 5 days out...


We have a very strong Consensus of models taking 97L somewhere around Puerto Rico and then out to sea. Some models do eventually turn it into a hurricane while others hardly getting it to a Tropical Storm. The further North it moves the more hostile the Shear environment will likely become. Gotta say the MODELS performed outstanding with this system thus far to the disbelief of many. Hummmm....we may not get our first hurricane out 97L yet either.

1775. MahFL
Quoting 1773. islander101010:
blog should be going bananas because of whats sw of florida guess we are conditioned "it will go poof"


The only thing sw of FL is part of Cuba, right now.
You mean east of the Yucatan ?
Good morning all...

Quoting 1773. islander101010:
blog should be going bananas because of whats sw of florida guess we are conditioned "it will go poof"



It currently has NO MODEL support at all to develop! None of the models develop it at all. I looked at it close at few minutes ago and anything is possible in that area, but there is currently NO 850mb vorticity confined where the big blob is located (that can Change)and there is little convergence but LOTS of Divergence. Again, needs watched but it will likely die out during the day as it appears to be Divergence influenced BloB.
1778. GatorWX
P30L looks more interesting this morning.

NAM and GFS both put 97L just north of Haiti in 84 hours, then the GFS turns it north and out to sea.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.
1781. GatorWX
Quoting 1779. Sfloridacat5:
NAM and GFS both put 97L just north of Haiti in 84 hours, then the GFS turns it north and out to sea.



Seems as if that'll be the case.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...LOCATED A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO...IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF THE DAYS
WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT
...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
1784. IKE
Copy and paste on the TWO. I think I can see what is going to happen. 97L gets caught up in a trough/cold front...coming off of the lower 48....goes north and out to sea.

A system coming off Africa in a few days turns into possibly the first hurricane of the season, but is a fish storm. Heads into the north Atlantic with a weakness in the Atlantic high, created by 97L.

That should get us through next 10-12 days.

As far as the system...possibly....in the BOC....it heads for Mexico. Possibly gets to TD/TS strength, but runs out of water to intensify....as it heads to Mexico.
Good morning all a nice 77 degrees this morning here in Daytona Beach, the sun is out and hardly a cloud in the sky.

It was seem as though 97L is still on track to develop and after clearing Puerto Rico should turn more towards the north and possibly be of interest to Bermuda.

0z FIM-9 through 7 days:





Looks like the very least we get a tropical storm out of this, possibly even a hurricane.

Quoting 1784. IKE:
Copy and paste on the TWO. I think I can see what is going to happen. 97L gets caught up in a trough/cold front...coming off of the lower 48....goes north and out to sea.

A system coming off Africa in a few days turns into possibly the first hurricane of the season, but is a fish storm. Heads into the north Atlantic with a weakness in the Atlantic high, created by 97L.

That should get us through next 10-12 days.

As far as the system...possibly....in the BOC....it heads for Mexico. Possibly gets to TD/TS strength, but runs out of water to intensify....as it heads to Mexico.


Yep....that is about it...people are getting confused of the big blob and what is crossing into the BOC....Not really the same thing! Nice summary!
invest 97L RAIN AND T.STORMS WILL DIE OUT THIS MORNING!
1788. Relix
97L is tiring. It just does not get it together and I doubt it will while in the Antilles.
1789. GatorWX
Diana Nyad, good for her!!! She looked pretty stung up or something. Puffy! She did it though. Never give up on your dreams! 110 miles, 64 years old.
1791. LargoFl
Quoting 1788. Relix:
97L is tiring. It just does not get it together and I doubt it will while in the Antilles.
NO Model builds 97 till its on the other side of haiti etc..then most do at least to TS..we'll see...i dont like the Bams model which insists on taking 97 to the gulf in a week..
1792. IKE
Thanks TampaSpin.

Had over an inch of rain at my location yesterday.

Headed for an early morning doctor visit. Woohoo. Have a good morning bloggers :)
Quoting 1785. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning all a nice 77 degrees this morning here in Daytona Beach, the sun is out and hardly a cloud in the sky.

It was seem as though 97L is still on track to develop and after clearing Puerto Rico should turn more towards the north and possibly be of interest to Bermuda.

0z FIM-9 through 7 days:





Looks like the very least we get a tropical storm out of this, possibly even a hurricane.

Reminds me of ts Harvey of 2005 and hurricane Kyke of 2008.
Quoting 1792. IKE:
Thanks TampaSpin.

Had over an inch of rain at my location yesterday.

Headed for an early morning doctor visit. Woohoo. Have a good morning bloggers :)
Same to you Ike.
1795. LargoFl
IF 97 stays weak and moves along the islands and then moves along the underside of cuba..all bets are off..
From the Puerto Rico NWS Disco...

MAIN CONCERN IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE LESSER
ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY WEST NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE REGION AS EARLY AS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LATEST COMPUTER
MODELS INDICATED BEST MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS AGREE ON A VERY WET PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT THE TIMING OF FLOODING RAINS AND LOCATION OF THIS
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS NOT YET CLEAR.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS
EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
1797. LargoFl

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.
Good morning everyone! Things look a bit more active but nothing looks like it will threaten the U.S. anytime soon.
1799. GatorWX
It'll be interesting to see if 97 splits like the Euro was showing. Still very broad!

I'm done with this one, lol. Oy! At least it's finally progressing forward.

Thunderstorms approaching Downtown Orlando yesterday. I picked up 2.67" of rain over the Holiday weekend. Nearly 50" of rain now since April 1st. Crazy! By the way GT be safe in Daytona as an active afternoon is on tap as storms will favor the eastern side of the Penisula today.

maybe invest 99L SOON
The year of the BOC systems (81 hour NAM). Maybe S. Tx. get a few rain drops?
1803. GatorWX
Scott, since April 1st?
Quoting 1799. GatorWX:
It'll be interesting to see if 97 splits like the Euro was showing. Still very broad!

I'm done with this one, lol. Oy! At least it's finally progressing forward.

I SEE A PIN BACK O INVEST 97l to
Quoting 1799. GatorWX:
It'll be interesting to see if 97 splits like the Euro was showing. Still very broad!

I'm done with this one, lol. Oy! At least it's finally progressing west.



Yeah the Euro 2 runs in a row now takes 97L to FL. Intersting and could very well play out as 97L looks terrible.

1806. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Yeah the Euro 2 runs in a row now takes 97L to FL. Intersting and could very well play out as 97L looks terrible.



Agreed, my guess, a landfall near Wekiva Springs/Melbourne area?
Pft...
1808. vis0
CREDIT: NASA (i post filtered WV & EnhIR)
        & amp; nbsp;      STILL IMG @  201309-03;1015UTC

This worries me (Northern Yucatan Peninsula).
Why?

Has a slight northward direction (though its mostly in the vapor blob, not any rotation)

Still if it heads N or NW, mostly unwanted rain for (W. Cuba) Florida. i explain why northward moving storms have a better opportunity to become healthy, BE WARNED it involves something i created & state influences weather so read it w/a mountain of salt.
Quoting 1802. Sfloridacat5:
The year of the BOC systems (81 hour NAM). Maybe S. Tx. get a few rain drops?


Really I'm tired with the BOC
Quoting 1803. GatorWX:
Scott, since April 1st?


Yes.

April 8.76"
May 6.60"
June 16.20"
July 8.45"
August 8.60"
September .79"

Total 49.40"
Quoting 1803. GatorWX:
Scott, since April 1st?


Rains started much earlier across eastern FL than on the western side of the state.
good news invest 97L going out to sea or die out and invest 98L IS GOING OUT TO SEA TO..NO HURRICANES OR TROPICAL STORMS HITTING THE EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS!
1813. GatorWX
Quoting 1811. StormTrackerScott:


Rains started much earlier across eastern FL than on the western side of the state.


lol, I thought I read .50". Sounds more like it. I would estimate, no rain guage but look at storms totals on NEXRAD, about 35" or thereabouts here since late May. It's a wet summer for sure!
14.2 N, 62.8W.

There is a clearly visible LLC there. Moving West. Probably is what the CIMSS vort maps have been picking up.
1815. FOREX
Quoting 1812. hurricanes2018:
good news invest 97L going out to sea or die out and invest 98L IS GOING OUT TO SEA TO..NO HURRICANES OR TROPIVALK STORMS HITTTING THE EAST COAST FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS!


see post 1795
It'll be interesting to see if this gets tagged 99L today.
you know the season is slow when ppl are blobcasting
Impressive convection in the NW Caribbean.

Quoting 1814. RascalNag:
14.2 N, 62.8W.

There is a clearly visible LLC there. Moving West. Probably is what the CIMSS vort maps have been picking up.


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

Quoting 1818. serialteg:
you know the season is slow when ppl are blobcasting


That's all there are. Just blogs no storms to track and may be that way for several more days.
Why do I think GTstormchaserCaleb just guaranteed rain for my 10:13 tee time?
To add, I think the spin at 14.2N, 62.8 West is the real 97L. The area with the convection may be deceiving; just check the lower level winds map that CIMSS provides. There's little if anything of meaningful organization under the area in Leeward islands while you can see westerlies to the south of the aforementioned spin.
Quoting 1821. CaribBoy:


A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.



Because the NHC is infallible?
Just west of Dominica

Link
Quoting 1823. DaytonaBill:
Why do I think GTstormchaserCaleb just guareenteed rain for my 10:13 tee time?


LOL. No rain in Daytona until later on today. Tee time in great shape.
97L going to be a rain storm no hurricane or tropical storm for the next 48 hours.
Quoting 1826. RascalNag:


Because the NHC is infallible?


Absolutely ;-)
Quoting 1825. ncstorm:


Im not sure why the mods are continuing to let the blogger post..he/she should have been banned as they only post to attack you..its a form of bullying and shouldnt be tolerated here


I know I am getting sick of it already.
And this incredible season rocks on onto Sept. I am beginning to think this will be a cane free season. I know the model this that and they all seam to be ghost (this season)

I am starting to think that a model w/o a td to lock onto is useless. I know they are suppose to show storm formation but come on....how many storms has we seen in fantasy land this year?
1833. GatorWX
I kept saying early on the nw carib/GOM/Bahamas would be the place, but everyone was set on a strong cv season. I still just don't see anything happening out there and wouldn't be surprised to see 98L die out just as others have. We'll see. I'll go out on a limb and say I expect October may be what we've been waiting for if not towards the end of this month. Instability is usually greatest then and there will be an awful lot of heat if things don't get going before then.
My bet is that once the convection near Dominica gets away from the islands it will die out. More than likely it is only there because of enhanced convection due to air being forced upwards by the islands. Once it moves out, it will probably lose most if not all of its convection and we'll see that it never had a very good lower level structure. EVen the lower level cloud motion right now seems to show almost all easterly flow below it; maybe there's a kink, but no more. The area I mentioned is the real 97L in my opinion.
Quoting 1832. Autistic2:
And this incredible season rocks on onto Sept. I am beginning to think this will be a cane free season. I know the model this that and they all seam to be ghost (this season)

I am starting to think that a model w/o a td to lock onto is useless. I know they are suppose to show storm formation but come on....how many storms has we seen in fantasy land this year?


I guess if you ignore the ECMWF and GFS are both showing significant development occurring this week into next week you could make that claim.
Quoting 1833. GatorWX:
I kept saying early on the nw carib/GOM/Bahamas would be the place, but everyone was set on a strong cv season. I still just don't see anything happening out there and wouldn't be surprised to see 98L die out just as others have. We'll see. I'll go out on a limb and say I expect October may be what we've been waiting for if not towards the end of this month. Instability is usually greatest then and there will be an awful lot of heat if things don't get going before then.


Well said, agree
Just 8 more days to broke the record.. can`t wait hope the Euro and the Gfs are wrong showing that hurricane:) btw is that 98L the one they are showing becoming a hurricane?
Quoting 1837. allancalderini:
Just 8 more days to broke the record.. can`t wait hope the Euro and the Gfs are wrong showing that hurricane:) btw is that 98L the one they are showing becoming a hurricane?


Wave behind it. It'll be close but I think 2013 will just tie the record.
Quoting 1839. CybrTeddy:


Wave behind it. It'll be close but I think 2013 will just tie the record.
We might get 9 hurricanes still like 2001 what you think?
Quoting 1835. CybrTeddy:


I guess if you ignore the ECMWF and GFS are both showing significant development occurring this week into next week you could make that claim.


Odds of probability. Sooner or latter.....

No really, I understand what they are saying but they have ALL been 100% bust on predicting canes (not td,or ts)this year.
Wonder if recon will cancel today?
I would say yes
Quoting 1843. GeoffreyWPB:
Wonder if recon will cancel today?
Quoting 1843. GeoffreyWPB:
Wonder if recon will cancel today?


I would hope so, unless it is a science mission. Nothing to really check out.
Quoting 1840. SFLWeatherman:


Well that says alot. The vorticity and coc don't match. I think that is why the Euro is stuck on taking this to the NW Caribbean. It it can make there as the Euro says then we maybe in business.
1847. GatorWX
lol, troll spray. Where can I get a can of that?

Quoting 1816. CybrTeddy:
It'll be interesting to see if this gets tagged 99L today.


In a few weeks these systems will tend to lift north/northeast vs. westerly into the BOC. That might be when the season finally gets going or gets interesting.
1849. sabres
Amazing gradient in rainfall across east central FL. Here in Melbourne/Viera - I'm at just under 25" since 1 April which is actually much below normal. I'm also guessing the east side of Orlando (near MCO) is pretty similar.
Global Hawk mission is underway.

Link
CIMSS still sees nothing under the stuff by dominica, still on board with the westbound spin further to the SW.

I think we need to pay attention to this one as it moves into the Western Caribbean. IT might just be that the older models of something heading over there and over the Yucatan, through the strait or over Western Cuba might hold, but we'll have to see.

Anyway, I have my first classes today... I'll see how 97 is doing later.
1852. GatorWX
I'd pretty much toss any model that isn't tracking a well developed low or td. I think their results have been rather poor with cyclogenisis, no? If something is developed, I'd use them as guidance, but not before. That's just me though.



The MDR is running about 1.7deg Cel. above normal because IMO a lack of tropical Development. If we don't get some storms going....NEXT year could really be a firecracker ready to pop! The Gulf of Mexico is running to he NOrth below average and to the South above average!
Quoting 1850. Tropicsweatherpr:
Global Hawk mission is underway.

Link


3. REMARKS: THE NASA 871 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. NASA 871 TAKE-OFF: 03/1100Z
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1100Z, 03 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1500Z, 03 SEP; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
F. EP: 0600Z, 4 SEPT; 25.0 N, 68.0 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1100Z, 04 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES DEPLOYED: 0, NO SONDE SYSTEM
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF TD
CIRCULATION IN BOX BOUNDED BY 25.0N 68.0W
17.0N 68.0W, 14.0N 55.0W, 19.0N 52.0W
FOLLOWED BY BUTTERFLY WITHIN REGION OF
CONVECTION ~ 200 NM RADIUS FROM 18.0N 67.5W
4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- BACK TO BACK GH MISSIONS:
A. NA871 LANDING, 1100 Z, 04 SEP
B. NA872 TAKE OFF 1500Z, 04 SEP
Good Morning. Not used to seeing a lack of Atlantic storms a few days from the peak period but there are probably a few large scale factors in play (the stable air factor that has now affected two seasons in a row thus far) that might be related somehow in the big scheme of things. We saw a lack of forecasted majors materialize last year (fast trade winds) and we are seeing a suppressed ITCZ at this time in spite of what appears to be a favorable SAL environment at present.

Not exactly sure what is going on but it will be interesting to see, for obvious reasons, how the total numbers of storms and majors vs. tropical storms end up over the next four weeks.

It is exciting to see a big major hurricane spin up (stadium effect and all) in any given year but it still boils down to trajectory and the threat from one storm on a populated region.......If the current Atlantic blobs do form into storms and take a path out to sea, that it a good thing.

I would finally note that the E-Pac has been very active for several weeks now (including the current potential system) so some of that "inverse" relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic is probably a factor as well in terms of the current Atlantic suppression.
1856. GatorWX
As kman stated yesterday, there could be somewhat of a Fujiwara affect on 97L and P30L. P30L currently has a much more northerly component to its forward motion, not stating that that's why however.
1857. GatorWX
Yes it has.



Could be assisting with the sinking air over the Atlantic.
Quoting 1856. GatorWX:
As kman stated yesterday, there could be somewhat of a Fujiwara affect on 97L and P30L. P30L currently has a much more northerly component to its forward motion, not stating that that's why however.


We usually only see that on very strong systems....I guess 2 very shallow systems could I suppose.
I wouldn't be too hasty to RIP 97L. If you run the Rammb loop attached,there is some decent inflow to the west side of the dominant convection blobs. Zoom in on the loop & look to the west of Saint Martin & to the south, west of St Vincent/St Lucia. Even showing southwest to south winds with the green wind barb.I noticed this last night. While the overall view appears disorganized,surface obs show quite healthy features.Today will be interesting
Rammb 4 km floater
Link
Quoting 1820. StormTrackerScott:
Impressive convection in the NW Caribbean.

Scott, it looks like the Yucatan blob is moving more N than NW/W. Perhaps it will make it through the uprights!
I fully expect 99L off the Yucatan this morning or afternoon imo
Quoting 1849. sabres:
Amazing gradient in rainfall across east central FL. Here in Melbourne/Viera - I'm at just under 25" since 1 April which is actually much below normal. I'm also guessing the east side of Orlando (near MCO) is pretty similar.
This map that shows precipitation anomalies for Florida over the past 30 days, illustrates nicely how dry both the tip of the peninsula and parts of the middle East coast have been, and just how wet the panhandle and parts of the central West coast have been:

Good morning. I have a question. Why iz the mission scheduledto fly say depression 97L? Thanks for responses.
Good Morning!
7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Dexter howls (softly, since it's early) to a passing train.


Dexter & his buddy Marley spar between running around in circles at lightning speed (yesterday evening).


Hmmm, this could be habit-forming...


Wasn't she in 'Raiders of the Lost Ark'?

Yesterday's afternoon downpour gave us 1.21", the biggest single day since August 3rd.



What a strange little hurricane season! Is it dead? Is it just a late bloomer? Stay tuned to Dr. Jeff Masters Wunderblog, where you'll see it here first (right after Taz & Grothar).
Quoting 1855. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Not used to seeing a lack of Atlantic storms a few days from the peak period but there are probably a few large scale factors in play (the stable air factor that has now affected two seasons in a row thus far) that might be related somehow in the big scheme of things. We saw a lack of forecasted majors materialize last year (fast trade winds) and we are seeing a suppressed ITCZ at this time in spite of what appears to be a favorable SAL environment at present.

Not exactly sure what is going on but it will be interesting to see, for obvious reasons, how the total numbers of storms and majors vs. tropical storms end up over the next four weeks.

It is exciting to see a big major hurricane spin up (stadium effect and all) in any given year but it still boils down to trajectory and the threat from one storm on a populated region.......If the current Atlantic blobs do form into storms and take a path out to sea, that it a good thing.

I would finally note that the E-Pac has been very active for several weeks now (including the current potential system) so some of that "inverse" relationship between the E-Pac and Atlantic is probably a factor as well in terms of the current Atlantic suppression.



Good post....I posted in early August why we would only have an average season. WE rarely have an active Pacific and Atlantic at the same time. When the Pacific is quite then the Atlantic becomes alive. It is usually always like that. GREAT POST WANNABE
12z Best Track 97L.

AL, 97, 2013090312, , BEST, 0, 148N, 617W, 25, 1009, LO
Here is the nice snapshot of the current suppression of the Atlantic ITCZ during the peak of the season.

Per today's ITCZ Hovmoller, the Atlantic ITCZ is positioned around 5N; it would normally be positioned between 10 and 15N this time of the year:

Link
Very interesting setup over the GOM. GOM is quite moist, but you can see the front dropping down (dry air to the north).
nice spin with the tropical wave to it south!
Quoting 1849. sabres:
Amazing gradient in rainfall across east central FL. Here in Melbourne/Viera - I'm at just under 25" since 1 April which is actually much below normal. I'm also guessing the east side of Orlando (near MCO) is pretty similar.


37" at Orlando international which is just above normal.
Quoting 1847. GatorWX:
lol, troll spray. Where can I get a can of that?

That's for TrollTrackerScott use only.Nobody else can't get it
Quoting 1852. GatorWX:
I'd pretty much toss any model that isn't tracking a well developed low or td. I think their results have been rather poor with cyclogenisis, no? If something is developed, I'd use them as guidance, but not before. That's just me though.
I do not see invest 97L developed anytime soon.
Quoting 1862. Neapolitan:
This map that shows precipitation anomalies for Florida over the past 30 days, illustrates nicely how dry both the tip of the peninsula and parts of the middle East coast have been, and just how wet the panhandle and parts of the central West coast have been:



The month of August seemed Orlando was the dividing line verses no rain east and copious amounts of rain Orlando west and north.
1874. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I know I am getting sick of it already.


Sorry to hear you are sick bud! Summer stay with us for a while.

Is 97L considered a tropical depression at this point?
12z Best Track for 98L.

AL, 98, 2013090312, , BEST, 0, 100N, 165W, 20, 1009, DB
The main area the NHC was looking at was this area of Vorticity moving toward the Southern BOC! But, there sure is a spin starting much further North of the Vorticity trying to form possibly!




1879. GatorWX
180 day, interesting!

1880. LargoFl
LOOK WHAT IS HAPPERN TO INVEST 97L ITS GOT TWO SPINS TO IT!!
1882. LargoFl
The Local Weather Forecast for St Kitts and Nevis



Valid up to 8 am tomorrow Wednesday 4th September 2013.
Today's Temps
High 30°C
86°F
Low 23°C
73°F

Scattered showers

Synopsis: The axis of a slow moving tropical wave will continue to move over the Leewards during the next 24hrs and this will create an environment that will support the formation of showers

Wx: Today: Becoming increasingly cloudy with areas of light rain mixed with heavier downpours this afternoon which could become thundery at times

Tonight: Cloudy with areas of rain mixed with occasional showers. Isolated thunderstorm are possible this evening and overnight

Winds: E-ENE at 8-16kts becoming SE tonight and into tomorrow.

Seas: Moderate: Heights 1.2-1.8m or 4-6ft. Small craft operators should exercise caution.

Barometric Pressure: Below normal

Sunset today: 6:23 pm.

Sunrise tomorrow: 5:51 am.





Antigua and Barbuda Meteorological Services
Lenard Josiah-Forecaster


Forecast issued at 5:51 AM,GMT-04:00 on 03/09/2013

NOW U SEE TWO SPINS FROM INVEST 97L
Funny.....how this time of year One can put a yellow circle in the NW Caribbean for a 20% development possible over the next 5days and be rarely wrong! You know what I mean! HAVE a GREAT DAY EVERYONE!
No BEST TRACK for 97L?
Quoting 1881. hurricanes2018:
LOOK WHAT IS HAPPERN TO INVEST 97L ITS GOT TWO SPINS TO IT!!

I think what you are seeing is a Broad Area of Low Pressure.... With 2 different vortex.... The Main Low is close to the Islands with a wave just behind it....

Thats the was I see it anyway :o)

Taco :o)
1888. LargoFl
Quoting 1885. CaribBoy:
No BEST TRACK for 97L?


See post 1866.
Quoting 1884. TampaSpin:
Funny.....how this time of year One can put a yellow circle in the NW Caribbean for a 20% development possible over the next 5days and be rarely wrong! You know what I mean! HAVE a GREAT DAY EVERYONE!
its not right at all the next five days the storm will be on land.. I do not like this five days outlook at all.
Regarding the precipitation in my immediate area, 42.19" has fallen since April 1st. Though August I'm 12.97" above average YTD. Last year through August I was 19.78" above average. The coverage has been much more evenly distributed this year (5 consecutive months above normal), whereas last year it was all-or-nothing with only 3 months out of the entire year being above average.
1893. GatorWX
You too Tampa.
Quoting 1887. CaribBoy:
some rain today CB
1895. GatorWX
1892, looks like dreams really do come true! :)
97 another mess of a system struggling every step of the way
1897. LargoFl
97L has went Poof...no more low within the rain.................THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W AND IS MOVING NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W.

Quoting 1894. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some rain today CB


Yes :) But very little so far
1899. K8eCane
Quoting 1896. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
97 another mess of a system struggling every step of the way



its in dead mans land...hades....purgatory or whatever you want to call it
1900. GatorWX
Quoting 1897. LargoFl:
97L has went Poof...no more low within the rain.................THE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DISSIPATED AND THE WAVE AXIS HAS MOVED
SLIGHTLY WEST CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING.
ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 11N61W AND IS MOVING NEAR 5 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 59W-63W
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 58W-66W.



lol
Ft. Myers Beach looking north (storms firing up just off shore).
Quoting 1863. mrsalagranny:
Good morning. I have a question. Why iz the mission scheduledto fly say depression 97L? Thanks for responses.
maybe at the time of designating mission that's what they were expecting by now

just a guess really
1903. LargoFl
Stay safe down there,,remember yesterday Lightning killed one person and put several more in the hospital.......................................... ..........
...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

FLOODING...STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED LOCALES IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO SLOW THUNDERSTORM
MOVEMENT.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST LOCALES, BUT AROUND 105 DEGREES
ACROSS INLAND COLLIER COUNTY.
Quoting 1900. GatorWX:


lol
now its just a wave that's waving wunder if its hello or goodbye
watcT out for that tropical wave back of invest 97L I SAW A SPIN TO IT and t.storm and rain pick up with that tropical wave
fast trade winds and 15kts of shear killing 97L its just that type of year folks.
1908. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE INLAND FROM THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST DURING THE DAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING
STORMS TO FORM LATE IN THE DAY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA...
INLAND FROM THE COAST. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS NEAR 50 MPH.
A FEW STORMS WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL EAST SWELL WILL PRODUCE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFEGUARD.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE EAST OR NORTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A FEW STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY IMPACT THE INLAND LAKES AS
WELL AS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS.
1909. GatorWX
No idea at this point, : l

Love this! Everyone keeps talking about how much rain they have gotten, I have two maples in the back that are already losing their leaves because of how dry August was!
Quoting 1862. Neapolitan:
This map that shows precipitation anomalies for Florida over the past 30 days, illustrates nicely how dry both the tip of the peninsula and parts of the middle East coast have been, and just how wet the panhandle and parts of the central West coast have been:


1911. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING AND MOVE
INLAND THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.


tropical wave back of invest 97L
1913. GatorWX
Pressures are still fairly low in the region, so... idk.

Quoting 1909. GatorWX:
No idea at this point, : l



Looks like the wave east of 97L has a slight ML spin.
It needs a burst of deep convection over the center, that is far from happening
It shouldn't be too much longer before the Atlantic shuts down with regard to tropical activity capable of reaching the U.S. The troughs from the north will soon start to move further south and disrupt the summertime pattern of air currents in the tropics. The current invests are already moving very slowly, and any disturbances in the tropical Atlantic will probably cease the east-west propagation in a couple of weeks. It will then be up to the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean to spawn tropical activity.

97L could still possibly be a player somewhere down the line, but it may be the last of the Atlantic-spawned disturbances capable of reaching the U.S. this season.
So we have two waves out in the Atlantic which are forecast to curve out to sea as fast as they can. And then the other tropical wave near the Yucatan is going to take the worst possible track for it to intensify and stay away from as much ocean as possible as far south and west as it can into the BOC.

One word.

BORING!
Quoting 1916. TropicalBruce:
It shouldn't be too much longer before the Atlantic shuts down with regard to tropical activity capable of reaching the U.S. The troughs from the north will soon start to move further south and disrupt the summertime pattern of air currents in the tropics. The current invests are already moving very slowly, and any disturbances in the tropical Atlantic will probably cease the east-west propagation in a couple of weeks. It will then be up to the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean to spawn tropical activity.

97L could still possibly be a player somewhere down the line, but it may be the last of the Atlantic-spawned disturbances capable of reaching the U.S. this season.
97l going out to sea
Quoting 1917. opal92nwf:
So we have two waves out in the Atlantic which are forecast to curve out to sea as fast as they can. And then the other tropical wave near the Yucatan is going to take the most harmless track possible as far south and west as it can into the BOC.

One word.

BORING!


:( :( :(
1921. LargoFl
Rainfall totals for my county so far....................Rainfall This month 0.01 in. (0.3 mm) Rainfall To date this year 35.90 in. (911.9 mm)
Closeup view.

looks like 97l may be moving wnw now as the recurve begins
Quoting 1917. opal92nwf:
So we have two waves out in the Atlantic which are forecast to curve out to sea as fast as they can. And then the other tropical wave near the Yucatan is going to take the most harmless track possible as far south and west as it can into the BOC.

One word.

BORING!

Give it a few days.
Quoting 1916. TropicalBruce:
It shouldn't be too much longer before the Atlantic shuts down with regard to tropical activity capable of reaching the U.S. The troughs from the north will soon start to move further south and disrupt the summertime pattern of air currents in the tropics. The current invests are already moving very slowly, and any disturbances in the tropical Atlantic will probably cease the east-west propagation in a couple of weeks. It will then be up to the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean to spawn tropical activity.

97L could still possibly be a player somewhere down the line, but it may be the last of the Atlantic-spawned disturbances capable of reaching the U.S. this season.


I think we will see at least one more landfaller.
1927. LargoFl
ok so the atlantic storm season was a bust so far..now we keep a good eye on the gulf, which hasnt has a big storm in there yet to release all that heat in the water...
Quoting 1922. Tropicsweatherpr:
Closeup view.



This is somewhat pathetic
So as we face the reality that this year will be much below everyones expectations. Lets get some input as to why?
Sick when I see the wave behind 97L moving NORTH
Rain never lasts for long here BORING
Is there no end to the bad news? How are supposed to make a living at this?

Link

1934. ncstorm
.
A message from a new member who has to wait the 24 hours to sign on. They would appreciate any input...

. I noticed a low pressure area in the North Atlantic around 37N and 40W, that was going unnoticed on the blog. I was wondering if you could mention it on the blog, to see if anyone has any information on it? Could it possible become sub/fully tropical? Thanks so much!! :)
What a boring Atlantic Hurricane Season. Geez!! I feel bad for some of the hard core enthusiasts out there!!

GORGEOUS morning from the Woods. And have you SEEN the forecast for the rest of the week. OMG. Just splendid!! :)

Natalie
Forgot to add: Boring is a good thing. At least I think so. ;)

Natalie/PUFF
1938. hu2007
long time no hears from i see :) i think this 2013 season is going to be quiet than expected, the perfect example{97L who? ) :D
Quoting 1904. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
now its just a wave that's waving wunder if its hello or goodbye


aloha
Quoting 1923. chrisdscane:
looks like 97l may be moving wnw now as the recurve begins
yes!! I love storms go out to sea
OMG look at the blob of the Carolina coast. Maybe it'll become something. Maybe a cat5 into NYC. OH NO!!!!!!!!!!!

LMAO
Let's salivate and drool over the destructive possibility that the lone thunderstorm in the middle of the Atlantic can bring to the CONUS. OH NO!!!!!!!!
1943. Xandtar
Quoting 1906. GeoffreyWPB:


http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pa ck-public/MOSAIQUE/201309031345-Mosaique.gif


As a former resident of Dominica, I respectfully request that the Weather Underground change their map outline of Dominica from what is in Dr. Master's column to the one shown above, it looks like someone squashed the island on the Wunderground maps.

Thanks!
1944. LargoFl
Quoting 1941. SouthernIllinois:
OMG look at the blob of the Carolina coast. Maybe it'll become something. Maybe a cat5 into NYC. OH NO!!!!!!!!!!!

LMAO
gimme some of what your drinking this morning
1945. LargoFl
Quoting 1944. LargoFl:
gimme some of what your drinking this morning


What did you put in the blog coffee this morning?
1947. LargoFl
Quoting 1946. GeoffreyWPB:


What did you put in the blog coffee this morning?
gee, i must have made a strong pot huh lol...
1948. LargoFl
Quoting 1944. LargoFl:
gimme some of what your drinking this morning

Comin' right up Largo. It's hurricanes today!!!
I got that summertime, summertime sadness
I got that summertime, summertime sadness....


1951. centex
Looks like our next system will be BOC. I'm tired of looking at storm tracks for systems that may never develop..
1952. hu2007
i think that a popcorn thunderstorm can do wayyyyyyyy better than this storm wanabe 97L lol :D
Quoting 1952. hu2007:
i think that a popcorn thunderstorm can do wayyyyyyyy better than this storm wanabe 97L lol :D

Yep. ;)
1954. LargoFl
IF you look closely at these tracks, now some of the models take the blob that was 97..towards south florida...
1955. SLU
Hard to believe we're in a phase 1 MJO phase.

Quoting 1950. SouthernIllinois:
I got that summertime, summertime sadness
I got that summertime, summertime sadness....




I thought we discontinued that song for the season?!
1957. LargoFl
GFS at 192 hours..Look at the gulf..............
This will be a good study for years to come. Will the sea ice rebound in years to come or will it retreat during the summer months? I think the biggest question is what the ice does in the winter months. I have always said it is the ice that should be the main concern in this Global Warming debate, we may be even seeing the effects of it now in terms of hurricane season and projected storm paths.

NAM at 27 hours - 97l splits into 2 different lows
1960. LargoFl
Quoting 1959. Sfloridacat5:
NAM at 27 hours - 97l splits into 2 different lows
I thought the nhc said the low has gone away from 97?
NAM at 36 hours
Don't know what happened to the second low.
Quoting 1954. LargoFl:
IF you look closely at these tracks, now some of the models take the blob that was 97..towards south florida...


I'm looking closely.....and see a bunch of BS

1963. LargoFl
GFS at 204 hours..stormy gulf...............
Rim Fire near Yosemite National Park 70% contained

(CNN) -- The stubborn Rim Fire, one of the largest wildfire in California's history, is 70% contained, the U.S. Forest Service said Monday night.
With rain and cooler temperatures in the forecast, firefighters who have toiled tirelessly for days will likely make further gains in the coming days.
Still, officials don't expect full containment until October 20.
The Rim Fire started August 17 and swallowed more than 235,000 acres -- making it the fifth-largest wildfire in California history. It has cost the state more than $39 million to date.
California Rim Fire time lapse
Although the fire has consumed tens of thousands of acres inside Yosemite National Park, it has so far had little or no direct impact on Yosemite Valley, a popular spot for tourists and home to many of the park's iconic attractions, including the El Capitan rock formation.
Authorities don't know what started the Rim Fire -- although the fire chief in the town of Twain Harte said illegal marijuana growers could be the unintentional culprits.
"It might be some sort of illicit grove, marijuana grow-type thing." Todd McNeal told a meeting on August 23. The video of the meeting was posted on YouTube and picked up steam recently.
Calls to the Twain Harte fire department were not answered Monday night. But Mark Healey with the Rim Fire Information Line dismissed the suggestion, calling it "rumors."
The fire, he said, was still under investigation

Link
1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.



In other words, 97L may still have something up it's sleave.
Quoting 1956. RitaEvac:


I thought we discontinued that song for the season?!

Haha! Well we did at one point but after purposely blocking it out the past month or so, now I like it again. :) I know I know it sounds messed up but don't know got it in my head and like it now. Hope you are not sick of it!! Will understand if you are! We could retire it then officially. ;)
1967. LargoFl
getting mixed messages on 97 and the wave behind it.....................SYNOPSIS...A BROAD TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 62W WILL MOVE W REACHING
ALONG 72W ON THU...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES ALONG 77W
ON FRI...AND ALONG 81W ON SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS
55W THIS MORNING...ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON WED...THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON
THU AND FRI AND THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

1968. Torito
Quoting 1964. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Rim Fire near Yosemite National Park 70% contained

(CNN) -- The stubborn Rim Fire, one of the largest wildfire in California's history, is 70% contained, the U.S. Forest Service said Monday night.
With rain and cooler temperatures in the forecast, firefighters who have toiled tirelessly for days will likely make further gains in the coming days.
Still, officials don't expect full containment until October 20.
The Rim Fire started August 17 and swallowed more than 235,000 acres -- making it the fifth-largest wildfire in California history. It has cost the state more than $39 million to date.
California Rim Fire time lapse
Although the fire has consumed tens of thousands of acres inside Yosemite National Park, it has so far had little or no direct impact on Yosemite Valley, a popular spot for tourists and home to many of the park's iconic attractions, including the El Capitan rock formation.
Authorities don't know what started the Rim Fire -- although the fire chief in the town of Twain Harte said illegal marijuana growers could be the unintentional culprits.
"It might be some sort of illicit grove, marijuana grow-type thing." Todd McNeal told a meeting on August 23. The video of the meeting was posted on YouTube and picked up steam recently.
Calls to the Twain Harte fire department were not answered Monday night. But Mark Healey with the Rim Fire Information Line dismissed the suggestion, calling it "rumors."
The fire, he said, was still under investigation

Link



if you guys are going too post info on the RIM fire why not do it here has it is the most updated info


Link



its 75 contain has of this AM
1970. LargoFl
...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING, FOCUSED INTERIOR-GULF COAST...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON, FOCUSED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, WHERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME NUMEROUS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY WINDS.

FLOODING...STREET FLOODING AND FLOODING OF POORLY DRAINED LOCALES IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING DUE TO SLOW THUNDERSTORM
MOVEMENT.

WIND: GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES: MAXIMUM AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST LOCALES, BUT AROUND 105 DEGREES
ACROSS INLAND COLLIER COUNTY.
Quoting 1969. Tazmanian:



if you guys are going too post info on the RIM fire why not do it here has it is the most updated info


Link



its 75 contain has of this AM
Ok, thanks for that link Taz. Even better new.
1972. Torito
Quoting 1969. Tazmanian:



if you guys are going too post info on the RIM fire why not do it here has it is the most updated info


Link



its 75 contain has of this AM


thanks for that link, I lost it the other day when I cleared internet history and checked off favorites by accident...
1973. K8eCane
watch out over there in Bermuda if models verify
There will be lots of studies about this season and what has happened (or not happened) so far. I'm curious about what happened to the MJO that was coming in as the 3rd strongest impulse in 30 years. It was suppose to ignite the Atlantic which obviously didn't happen.
1975. LargoFl
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-031730-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT TO 20 NM-INDIAN RIVER-INLAND VOLUSIA-MARTIN-
NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-OKEECHOBEE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT TO 20 NM-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE-ST. LUCIE-VOLUSIA-
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT TO 20 NM-
925 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

.NOW...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND MOVE EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH
DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHTNING STORMS WILL
INITIALLY MOVE TOWARD LAKE COUNTY AND THE KISSIMMEE RIVER BETWEEN
NOON AND 2 PM AND THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY FROM NEAR VERO BEACH SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.

&&
1977. LargoFl
showers sure look like they are moving due west not wnw
1978. JRRP
1979. hu2007
Quoting 1951. centex:
Looks like our next system will be BOC. I'm tired of looking at storm tracks for systems that may never develop..
im exausted too see no hurricanes so far not a least once, maybe this season will end with 3 hurricane vs 9 hurricanes??? 10 storm vs 17 storms and 1 major vs 4 expected in general. factor for this quiet season is the above normal dry air from africa dust and stronger than usual sinking air aloft and now the final factor will be high shear from tutts and troughs from now in to the end for much of the atlantic and gulf, maybe october and november when the fronts start digging in to the west carribean is when development will kick in again
Quoting 1972. Torito:


thanks for that link, I lost it the other day when I cleared internet history and checked off favorites by accident...
Quoting 1972. Torito:


thanks for that link, I lost it the other day when I cleared internet history and checked off favorites by accident...




your welcome
1981. LargoFl
1982. Torito
Looks dry over there largo.

Link
1983. LargoFl
Quoting 1982. Torito:
Looks dry over there largo.

yes dry here..had 2 raindrops earlier
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1985. LargoFl
Quoting 1937. SouthernIllinois:
Forgot to add: Boring is a good thing. At least I think so. ;)

Natalie/PUFF


Yes boring is good! Good morning Natalie! Managed to make it out to Crab Island both Saturday and Sunday, the party on Sunday was crazy! Both days we had rain all around us but the skies stayed clear over Crab Island! Interesting how isolated the rain can be. While I was out their on the boat both days I picked up about an inch of rain at my house about 10 miles to the West! The pond that is my front yard lives on!
1987. GatorWX
Loud, big time storms moving through. Lots of thunder and lightning, near constant. No rain yet though.

Quoting 1951. centex:
Looks like our next system will be BOC. I'm tired of looking at storm tracks for systems that may never develop..


I give the blob at the Gap an 80% chance of going shrimp, or 'coma' by 5pm.
1989. vis0

Quoting 239. HurricaneAndre:
WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC WAKE UP ATLANTIC.
First one needs "Ruby slippers". Now wear them on Sept. 18/19 2013. As you face the center of the Tropical Atlantic say the words you posted.

*(assuming you're a guy)i recommend you go shopping now for the Rubies as it might be hard to get a size 11 ruby slipper. Then lets see if TUTT(o) will go down the yellow SAL road.
1990. vis0
Quoting 1440. FunnelVortex:


I think it will moisten the Carribean. Allowing for even more favorable conditions.

If i may steal "you" for a second,
maybe 2013 97L will turn into a " " ... (! - ) sarcasm flag)
1991. vis0

Quoting 1962. RitaEvac:


I'm looking closely.....and see a bunch of BS

i think you misspelled BeeS (looks like some hit the hive)