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Less active Atlantic hurricane season foreseen by new model

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:33 PM GMT on June 20, 2007

A major new player in the seasonal Atlantic hurricane season forecast game is here--the UK Met Office, which issued its first Atlantic hurricane season forecast yesterday. The UK Met Office is the United Kingdom's version of our National Weather Service. Their 2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for ten named storms for the remainder of the season--12 for the entire season, when one includes Andrea and Barry. They make no forecasts for number of hurricanes or intense hurricanes, nor where the storms may strike. The UK Met Office forecast of ten storms for July through November is below the average of 12.4 for the active hurricane period that began in 1995, and well below the predictions of the other major seasonal forecast teams.

July-November 2007 Atlantic hurricane season forecasts (adjusted for the occurrence of Tropical Storms Andrea and Barry, where appropriate):

UK Met Office (June 19): 10 named storms.

Colorado State University (CSU) Phil Klotzbach/Dr. Bill Gray forecast (May 31): 16 named storms.

NOAA's forecast (May 22): 11-15 named storms.

Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) forecast (June 4): 14.7 named storms.

How reliable are the UK Met Office forecasts?
This is the first year that the UK Met Office has issued a forecast of hurricane season activity, so we don't have any previous years to evaluate their forecasts. The results of their experimental forecasts issued for the 1987-2002 seasons are scheduled to be published later this year in the peer-reviewed journal Geophysical Research Letters. The UK Met Office claims that their forecast out-performed the forecasts made for the 2005 and 2006 Atlantic hurricane season issued by the other major seasonal forecast groups. I have high hopes for the UK Met Office forecast, since it is based on a promising new method--running a dynamical seasonal prediction computer model of the global atmosphere-ocean system. The Dr. Bill Gray/CSU forecast is based on statistical patterns of hurricane activity observed from past years. These statistical techniques do not work very well when the atmosphere behaves in ways it has not behaved in the past. The UK Met Office forecast avoids this problem by using a global computer forecast model--the GloSea model (short for GLObal SEAsonal model). GloSea is based on the HadCM3 model--one of the leading climate models used to formulate the influential UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. GloSea subdivides the atmosphere into a 3-dimensional grid 3.75° in longitude, 2.5° in latitude (277.5 km), and 19 levels in the vertical. This atmospheric model is coupled to an ocean model of even higher resolution. The initial state of the atmosphere and ocean as of June 1, 2007 were fed into the model, and the mathematical equations governing the motions of the atmosphere and ocean were solved at each grid point every few minutes, progressing out in time until the end of November (yes, this takes a colossal amount of computer power!) It's well-known that slight errors in specifying the initial state of the atmosphere can cause large errors in the forecast. This "sensitivity to initial conditions" is taken into account by making many model runs, each with a slight variation in the starting conditions which reflect the uncertainty in the initial state. This generates an "ensemble" of forecasts and the final forecast is created by analyzing all the member forecasts of this ensemble. Forty ensemble members were generated for this year's UK Met Office forecast. The researchers counted how many tropical storms formed during the six months the model ran to arrive at their forecast of ten named storms for the remainder of this hurricane season. Of course, the exact timing and location of these ten storms are bound to differ from what the model predicts, since one cannot make accurate forecasts of this nature so far in advance.

The grid used by GloSea is fine enough to see hurricanes form, but is too coarse to properly handle important features of these storms. This lack of resolution results in the model not generating the right number of storms. This discrepancy is corrected by looking back at time for the years 1987-2002, and coming up with correction factors (i.e., "fudge" factors) that give a reasonable forecast. This year's GloSea forecast shows a cooling trend in the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) compared to what we've seen in recent years, and is a major reason why the UK Met Office forecast is so much lower than the other seasonal Atlantic forecasts. I believe that the GloSea model has high enough resolution to do as good a job as the other seasonal hurricane forecasts this year, but it's hard to make an informed judgment until their research results are published. The GloSea forecast is based on sound science, though, and does call into question whether or not the other seasonal forecasts are forecasting unrealistically high levels of hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year. I think that is probably the case, and a better forecast can be made by averaging together the four models into a consensus forecast. Consensus forecasts are difficult to beat, and the consensus of the CSU, NOAA, TSR, and UK Met Office forecasts yields a prediction of 13 more named storms this year, for a total of 15.

The future of seasonal hurricane forecasts
The future of seasonal hurricane forecasts using global dynamical computer models is bright. A group using the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECWMF) model is also experimenting with some promising techniques using that model. Models like the GloSea and ECMWF will only get better as increased computer power and better understanding of the atmosphere are incorporated, necessitating less use of "fudge" factors based on historical hurricane patterns. If human-caused climate change amplifies in coming decades, statistical seasonal hurricane forecasts like the CSU's may be limited in how much they can be improved, since the atmosphere may move into new patterns very unlike what we've seen in the past 100 years. It is my expectation that ten years from now, seasonal hurricane forecasts based on global computer models such as the UK Met Office's GloSea will regularly out-perform the statistical forecasts issued by CSU.

Bill Proenza to appear on Thursday's Barometer Bob show
Thursday night June 21, new NHC director Bill Proenza will be the guest on the Barometer Bob Show. You can listen at barometerbobshow.com, or dial in via their toll-free number 1-866-931-8437 (1-866-WE1THER). If you want to ask him a question, you can do so using their Storm Chat web page.

Tropical Outlook
A cold front pushing off the East Coast of the U.S. on Thursday could trigger formation of a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday over the Gulf Stream waters between Daytona Beach, Florida and Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Several of the computer models are forecasting that a weak low pressure system will form by Friday in this region. However, there will be a lot a wind shear close by, which may make any storm storm that does form subtropical or non-tropical. It is uncertain where such a storm might move, since steering currents will be weak. I'll have an update on this situation by Friday at the latest.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

without surface lows all these areas could go poof.
Pottery

Been dry here since the gulley washer last Friday night but I see some lightning coming up from the SE. I should have guessed it with tomorrow being the start of the weekend LOL
1003. Drakoen
heh i guess the keyword in that discussion in "Elsewhere". So i guess the system of the coast of FL has some potential. It still in that area of hostile upper level winds and needs to move into that pocket of favorable upper level winds.
That poof in the center of the GOM looks interesting. Shears not to strong, SST 85 ish.

I think its coming to see you JP.
hellsniper

Pls size your image
Poof is Right JF! Even the little circulation is getting sheared to death. Very elongated now and storms are pulling away from it.
yes what wind shear LOL
Yeah Kman. Here all the courses have greened up nicely. If you want a round this w/e you may have to come here. Looks like a nice w/e for us.
Poll for Everyone:
What % Chance do you give the SW Caribbean Wave of tropical development?


Also, with your % include your reasoning. Different point of views is key.
Well folks I'm outta here for tonight.
Hope the GHCC site is back up tomorrow so we can get some close ups.
Have a good one all
C U tomorrow
I second that kman...All hail the GHCC!

Night all
Fcast.

I'd say... 20%

Because...

Shear is reasonable. Water temps are adiquate. The atmosphere is moist. But... Not every blob can be a storm.
If these storms were drawing in air/fuel they would have a significant low form beneath them and surface winds that indicate that mechanism.
i say 40% because the same a hellsniper said but also its proximity o land
1016. DocBen
Looks to me like either of those blobs could blow up. Both over warm water; both seems to be moving toward more warm water. Both seem to be drifting away from land; Carib also N-ward and FL S-ward.
The above is a brilliant example of the difficulty in forecasting. Everyone sees it different. I love it..........
Ok, not quite off to bed yet...

I am a little surprised that the low off of Fla got cut off. I thought it would follow the train to the NE a little quicker then it will. The CMC actually has it headed back in the general direction of the OBX. I would think this are is the most likely area to develop over the next three to four days, but I would not give it much more then 30% at most. If the shear relaxes then all bets are off.
pottery, I have found that a consensus on here is a very accurate forecast. Although as you stated it often takes us a fair amount of time to get to a consensus...
ok i think we could see 95 and 96L on friday if they keep looking good
Agreed, SJ. It was'nt a criticism.
1026. Patrap
ISS and Shuttle to pass over New Orleans in 2 minutes again

Will try to get cam video
Well, it seems two areas are being monitered now...
the caribbean blob and the fl coast blob...

Florida Blob:
--invest--90%
--td--50%
--ts--40%
--cane--5%
Shear is relatively low...but some bad shear pockets is possible over the next few days...a lot of convection with this system which is a main ingredient for development....SST's are warm enough; especially as it approaches the warmer water...im expecting 95L early tomorrow i it holds together through the night...steering, a lot of possible ways it could go 1. back over fl, 2. south, 3. sw...it seems unknown, but a westish scenario seems possible...

Caribbean Blob:

--invest--85%
--td--60%
--ts--30%
--cane--5%

Very close proximity to land...which can, without a doubt, hinder any immediate development...shear is currently not a major issue but if it were to go north, shear may rip it apart...convection, though, appears to keep flaring and dissipating...the low itself is south of the mess of convection...im expecting 95L/96L on the Navy Site this weekend; if it holds together and shows more of a threat to develop it may be 95/96L tomorrow or Satuday...this may either go to the EPAC or might have a sort of NWward drift...a bit uncertain...

But out of both systems...Fl coast blob may be come depression and caribbean, at most, could become a tropical storm...
I give it 35% we'll have Chantal and Dean by the end of this weekend.

-Justin~
1028. Patrap
ISS
Thu Jun 21/10:15 PM
< 1

27
22 above NNW 27 above NNW
With the aforementioned blog by Dr. Masters, could this be the second year of shear as if may be slightly more active than last year? We shall see. But right now, the tropics have been a snoozer.
It's 50 minutes from Friday here already Taz. I'll give them - friday for the Florida one. Sat for the Carib one. If they last till then. My bet is on the Carib one for Sat, as a listed Trop. Depression.

Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 3:15 AM GMT on June 22, 2007.

wow a bit aggressive weatherblog


Well, you gotta be aggressive to make points on these blogs...LOL
1034. Inyo
my guess is 10% that either of them makes it beyond depression and only 30% that either even does that. it's june, shear is high, conditions aren't favorable. It may end up being an active hurricane season come August, but right now, there's just nothing there.

I also predict we will see a named storm in the E-pac before we see one in the Atlantic. This is going out on a limb so we'll see!
Yep, JP. Now keep an eye on the Carib one for Saturday,at around 20n80w, IMO.
It's not aggressive at all, and I know it's normal. I just don't investigate each thunderstorm over the waters..lol
According to our local meteorologist, he doesn't expect any development with the offshore Florida cloudiness.
Hey Pottery good evening. That coordinate is almost in my back yard. LOL
will you all stop saying wind shear is high win shear is not high at this time wind shear is vary low right now
1040. Jedkins
The low off the east coast of Florida has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical depression.
1042. Patrap
Still image of Orbiter as it passed over..ISS was ahead of it but out of frame.Image enlarged and contrast adjusted...

6
Well I hope that my prognosis is off then Caymanite ! But I've been looking at how the SAL affects things over the last 2 -3 years, and I think it will start drawing back Friday, pulling that system along with it a little east of north.
1045. Patrap
Thought I was in vid mode.Only got 4 stills.Bummer
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:27 AM GMT on June 22, 2007.

It's not aggressive at all, and I know it's normal. I just don't investigate each thunderstorm over the waters..lol
According to our local meteorologist, he doesn't expect any development with the offshore Florida cloudiness
.


I'm really not trying to investigate every thunderstorm saying they're gonna develop...I didn't predict Barry or Andrea actually to be named...the systems, to me seemed that something could develop...the information just seems interesting and I was making my own point of view on what they might do...

Well, anyways, I got a question... Does anybody think the caribbean blob will slide its way into the EPAC?...Or do you think the N/NW direction is more possible? (which I'm expecting)...but anymore thoughts..?
Will be monitoring it close Pottery2.Off to bed now,g'nite all.
JP,
Shear Rules!
JP try 30kt not 30 to 40kt




well good night
Weatherblog, see my post of a few mins ago.
ok jp
1057. Patrap
The replay of the BarometerBob show with the NHC directors interview. Link
dis. off fla looks to intensify gotta watch press. rainbow image shows a nice pit looks interesting little poof in gom still poofing
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
937 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...MSAS ANALYZED SFC LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING SOUTHWARD
OFF THE VOLUSIA COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS CONTINUE WELL OFFSHORE WITH A
SYMMETRIC GROWTH SPURT OF COLD TOPS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS
EAST OF THE SFC LOW POSITION. NOT EXPECTING THE PRESENT SFC LOW TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH INTO FRI WITH GRADUAL DISSIPATION EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY.

$$

JP

Hhmm~ Not one of the usual forecast writers.
1061. Patrap
GOM and CArb IR Loop Link
Well, there is evident wrapping in that Radar.. But I see no defined LLC.
1063. Jedkins
dangit why won't that friggen low just move into the gulf where there is lower shear and warmer water, become a ts, and just sit and spin throwing deep convection across Florida.

IF ONLY that would happen!
On this day in weather history...
1915 -- A hailstorm struck the Naval Academy at Annapolis, Maryland. The hailstones were pear-shaped and occasionally contained small pebbles. (Flora, Hailstorms of the United States, 1956)

1919 -- A tornado demolished half of Fergus Falls, Minnesota and hit the Oriental Limited train. Seven of its eleven coaches were ripped off the tracks, and the baggage car was torn completely from the train and thrown 30 feet. The tracks were pulled out of the ground.

1928 -- A farmer near Greensburg, Kansas reported looking up into a funnel cloud that had just recently been a tornado. The interior of the funnel had "rotating clouds and was brilliantly lighted with constant flashes of lightning, which zig-zagged from side to side".

2003 -- The United States' largest recorded hailstone fell on Aurora, Nebraska. Diameter was 7 inches, circumference was 18.75 inches.

2006 -- A macroburst damaging wind event occurred from western Indiana to northwest Ohio. Widespread damaging winds up to 85 mph felled numerous trees and damaged homes from Logansport to Lima with the towns of Miami...Marion...Van Buren...Liberty Center...Willshire and Lima hardest hit. 17 aircraft and two hangers at the Lima Airport were damaged or destroyed. In addition...4 tornadoes up to F1 intensity were confirmed over Van Wert and Allen county.

NWS
I housed a Hurricane Katrina evacuee at my house for months. He finally bailed on his New Orleans residence and moved to Costa Rica. He says they never get hurricanes there. Not true! Rarely do hurricanes strike Costa Rica, although Hurricane Cesr came ashore on 27 July 1996, killing 41 people and trashing the Pacific southwest in the nation's worst national disaster in a decade. Large-scale deforestation in the region contributed to massive flooding. This Central America system could affect Costa Rica.

Plus, he moved to Lake Arenal, on the flank of the volcano, Arenal... now very active. I think I would have taken my chances with the levees in New Orleans!
But right now, the tropics have been a snoozer.

...It's June. Not every season is 2005, not every June brings an Audrey.
Seems the caribbean distubance is dissipating...the scattered convection isn't even near the low...I think tomorrow will tell all...also for the Florida Coast blob also.
Theres an area of rotation near Tampa bay Its pulling dry air, but you can see it on the WV. The models did get that part right. The dry air in the E gulf seems to be dissipating.
I really don't see the florida blob developing. There's too much shear, and the convection is separated FAR from the low.

The caribbean blob is close to land, but it is under low shear, has upper level divergence, and has plenty of time.
Note that most of the convection is to the east, but it has a broad circulation. A significant flare up of convection could cause the center to relocate, especially if the main center drifts over land.

I say:
Florida blob: 10%.
Caribbean blob: 65%
Both: 0%

I also think that the Caribbean blob is the first shot we have at a hurricane this year, albeit a minimal one at best.
yeah this thing might relocate and plow into the gulf
...looks like some wrapping at 84W/16N. It'll be interesting to see the next QuikScat pass. I think we're on our way to 95L sometime later Friday.
Moonlightcowboy, is that for the Carribean disturbance or the one by Florida? And weatherblog: dissipating? I doubt it. The wind shear map on wunderground's main page shows shear of at least 30 knots over the system, so that is what is wrong with the system. That, and it is very close to land.
Up early today. Hope all is well with everyone. Seems to be some kind of circulation just to the north of Hond. moving NW WnW The IR2 will have to do until the vis. show.
hello,everyone
the carribbean blob should have the best change.
Maybe two,three weeks to soon to become something interesting.
But hey,at this time everything that reaches the GOM could become something.
SST high enough and shear low in GOM.
apocalyps, that's IF shear doesn't increase in the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions change. Here are my predictions for the Carribean blob:

Invest: 60%
Tropical Depression: 30%
Tropical Storm: 20%
Hurricane: 5%
Major Hurricane: 0.5%

Of course, these predictions will go up if the thing survives into the Gulf of Mexico and keeps what little convection it currently has.
Koritheman,true IF conditions stay the same in GOM.

TD 0%
TS 0%
HUR 0%

But my predictions are always wrong.
So if i am wrong again you will have something to watch soon.lol
As for the Florida Blob: The NAM and the GFS runs both seem to show it recurving into the lower Bahamas.

The BIG Atlantic GFS is more Ambiguous however - but shows something in the Bahamas.

NOGAPS may too at 120 hrs -perhaps going into mid gulf region.

I think the navy may pick it up today - if it stays together and develops a stronger surface low.





Main Circ center just SE of here? Also that other blob isn't too shabby?!.
Ok, goodmorning! The nhc said the fla blob was moving ssw yesterday and the carib blob was heading west. Should we send them a compass?
LOL

still watching
still waiting
Still missing the ghcc site!
1083. GetReal
Posted By: homegirl at 11:06 AM GMT on June 22, 2007.

Ok, goodmorning! The nhc said the fla blob was moving ssw yesterday and the carib blob was heading west. Should we send them a compass?


Homegirl that is by far, one of the most well put observations... I whole heartedly agree with that statement...
1084. Patrap
GOM IR Loop....Link
1085. IKE
The Caribbean blob looks like it had a hard night of partying...convection is considerably less...but it has a definite spin to it...must be ready to go dancing!

Pressures are slightly lower at the 2 buoys in the western Caribbean from 24 hours ago.

From everything I've read...looks like the "blob" will head into the GOM.
1086. nash28
Morning all. I see the Caribbean disturbance fizzled a bit overnight. Should refire again today.
1087. IKE
Mobile,Al. extended.......

"Long term (saturday through thursday)...while surface high pressure
ridge remains in place over the southeastern states through the
extended period...ridging aloft begins to break down on Saturday as
upper trough over the Southern Plains states drifts slowly eastward.
By the end of the weekend and through the middle part of next
week...a more unsettled weather pattern will return with upper trough
maintaining itself just to the west of the forecast area and abundant
lolvl moisture...associated with the tropical wave in the western
Caribbean...is advected northward across the Gulf and into the
southeastern states. Still looks like rain chances will start going
up into the chance category on Sunday night...then generally
continuing with chance probability of precipitation through Thursday with best chances over
the western half of the forecast area. Still above normal temperatures over the
weekend...but with more clouds and precipitation around during most of next
week look for slightly cooler temperatures that will be just below normal
levels. /12"
1088. Patrap
G morning.The GFSx has a solution..a lil more west into Sw LA. on the 26th.,..but weaker than yesterdays run..

Link
1089. Patrap
WAVEtrak split window...Link
yea in 4 days the Western Caribbean disturbance seems to go in. Perhaps that is what I was looking at.

Still though something gets close to Florida from the Bahamas region then too.
1091. Neurian
When everyone is looking at the model runs, are you selecting sea level pressures run or something else?
1093. Patrap
Hey StormW.The Friday arrives.
1096. Neurian
I've been using this site for a year or so I dont see what you mentioned as a choice. "Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields". What is the best site and selection to use when running models? Sorry to be difficult!
1097. nash28
Morning StormW, Pat.
1100. Neurian
Thank You StormW
neurian, you can find a bunch of great links on one page found here.

1102. nash28
Hoping the Caribbean disturbance can regain some life today.
1103. emagirl
good morning everyone.......so do we still think the "blob" is going to develop
Memorial service for fire fighters this morning.
♥ Thanks to all our first responders!
Morning All!

Ship 4 is on the east side of the Caribbean disturbance. Pressure is rising, probably in relation to the lack of convection but, winds are 24kts 60 degrees. ENE
1106. nash28
Pretty much a crapshoot for the Caribbean blob.
Posted By: emagirl at 12:36 PM GMT on June 22, 2007.
good morning everyone.......so do we still think the "blob" is going to develop


thankfully, no.
Streaming video of memorial service can be found here.
thankfully no...lol...funny...

the car blob looks sick this morning. But, the circulation involved with it did in fact go inland overnight...it has now re-emerged off the nothern coast...and in the last few frames you can see convection trying to refire right near it. I have a feeling that by the afternoon it will be looking pretty good again...thing now is..it is moving directly for the gulf...no more land...we will see.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

I probably wont be able to check in till late this evening as my sister is having her first child today...so Ill probly be with family most of the day. You guys have a good one and Ill catch you later.

Chris.
GR8 post, SJ! They get no pay and their jobs are thankless usually...time spent away from family, and obviously in dangerous situations, too. They deserve recognition and our support! -- And, with that I have to add God Bless our troops, too!

....and uuummmm, good TGIF morning all!!! IMVHO, still think we'll get 95L later today! Headed to the GOM!!!

SJ, what's your take on the Caribbean blob?
A lot of rain has fallen over the Quad Cities area last night.. Some places have gotten over 10" of rain.

wow
1112. FLBoy
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

EASTERLY WAVE
APPROACHES WITH BAHAMAS WED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE
TREASURE COAST IN THE AFTN...WILL RAISE PRECIP TO LOW-MID SCT RANGE
WITH ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO MOVE ONSHORE IN THE MORNING AND DEVELOP
ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WAVE AXIS
APPROACHES THE FL EAST COAST THU MORNING AND SHOULD SEE HIGHEST
SHOWER CHCS ACROSS SE SECTIONS AND ALONG THE COAST (WILL CONTINUE 40
PCT).


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

THE GFS IS SHOWING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL INCREASE THE POPS TO CHANCE
CATEGORY THEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
I do not see Carribean blob heading near Fla due to High in Gulf should track around right into Tex/LA
1116. Jedkins
Yep I figured that was off, even still, NWS says they have had 3 to 4 inches, and in the amount of time this fell in IOWA is really rough!


That area averages only about 20 inches of rain a year.


The weather is so weird this year, the pattern just will not go back to normal, its been way off course ever since 2007 started!
On the latest IR, it does in fact appear that convection is firing up on the southeast side of the "circulation". Now that it is over the warm Caribbean waters, it bares watching for possible tropical development.
Good morning all

Convection with the Caribbean disturbance is refiring just to the E of Roatan island. The Quikscat pass this morning does not show a surface low but there are a few wind barbs just off the N coast of Honduras that show a wind shift from SSE to ENE. Since there is a rotation that is quite evident in the sat images in the same area it could be that the rotation is all in the mid to upper levels or that the low was inland at the time of the pass and was just emerging at that time. It is possible that the barbs showing the wind shift were from the very N edge of a surface circulation that was emerging when the sat passed over. We will have to watch this area to see how things unfold throughout the day

1120. nash28
You're welcome StormW. Great analysis.
As far as future steering currents. It is too early to predict exactly where the blob will go. The high can be eroded somewhat by 48h. Could go anywhere from TX to S FL. Just my thoughts
Ahh HA!! Storm Spotter Report of 7" of Rain... So at least its somewhat right.

06/22/2007 0537 am

4 miles se of Blandinsville, McDonough County.

Heavy rain m6.73 inches, reported by trained spotter.

Storm total since last evening.
The carrib disturbance is starting to refire. Circ is now no longer inland. That area as well as the gulf have very low shear. Perfect place for it to go and reintensify. Funny how these 'blobs' like to follow tracks similarly to Wilma.
My Daughter lives in North English, Ia 7.2 inches in her rain gauge
Anyone have the inside scoop on how long the GHCC site will likely be down ?. We could sure use a few close ups of that area N of Honduras
DEATH to the BLOBS! (Unless they go out to sea)
Nothing unusual at the surface just to the NE of the spin off Honduras

ehh...what the heck. We are stressing ourselves out to bring life back into disturbances maybe just so they can become a cane. Its only June, plenty of possibilities happened. Its only gonna increase and increase. It will happen. And on that note... big one(s) will happen.
1130. nash28
Pressures seem to be holding steady.
The shear on this blob does seem like it is making it struggle a little. However, one thing i do notice is the flare up of convection near the true mid-level circulation right off the coast. I think this convection needs to be watched. If it flares up alot today, i feel this thing becomes an invest this weekend. Another scenario i see possibly playing out is that this thing moves more north and possibly slight north and east. Of course at that point this thing would have to contend with Cuba's high mountains. I predict Florida could see some tropical moisture from this system.
It's gonna fire as soon as the heating of the day starts to feed it. All it needs is some life. After that, it's in a pretty good environment thereafter. No land, just warm H2O. I don't think the shear forecast will be as high as predicted either.
1133. IKE
Posted By: whirlwind at 9:28 AM CDT on June 22, 2007.
ehh...what the heck. We are stressing ourselves out to bring life back into disturbances maybe just so they can become a cane. Its only June, plenty of possibilities happened. Its only gonna increase and increase. It will happen. And on that note... big one(s) will happen.


May there be no roofs damaged anywhere in the US this season.
1134. nash28
The key is it needs to maintain convection during the overnight hours. It did not do that last night.
We'll get 95L close to Isla Mujeres, maybe before then...no supporting data, sorry, just a hunch.

...and thanks, Ike for reminding Whirlwind and the board that we don't want ANY roofs damaged!!!
1136. IKE
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 9:39 AM CDT on June 22, 2007.
We'll get 95L close to Isla Mujeres, maybe before then...no supporting data, sorry, just a hunch.

...and thanks, Ike for reminding Whirlwind and the board that we don't want ANY roofs damaged!!!


You're welcome.
I highly doubt the NHC will call it an invest only because there was some flare up over the COC. I do believe if the blob can maintain itself for at least 6-10 hrs or so overnight then we will have 95L by tomrrow morning. If it can't do that then this blob is a dud.
1138. IKE
New Blog
1139. Jedkins
Posted By: weathersp at 2:08 PM GMT on June 22, 2007.

Ahh HA!! Storm Spotter Report of 7" of Rain... So at least its somewhat right.

06/22/2007 0537 am

4 miles se of Blandinsville, McDonough County.

Heavy rain m6.73 inches, reported by trained spotter.

Storm total since last evening.



Alrighty ya got me dangit lol.