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Leslie near hurricane strength; Son of Isaac (90L) emerges in the Gulf

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:05 PM GMT on September 05, 2012

Tropical Storm Leslie is growing more organized and is approaching hurricane strength on its slow voyage northwards at 2 mph towards the island of Bermuda. Moderately high wind shear of 15 - 20 knots due to strong upper-level winds out of the northwest continues to keep most of Leslie's heavy thunderstorms pushed to the east side of the storm, but satellite loops show that Leslie now has an impressive blow-up of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops near its center. Leslie's slow forward speed means that the storm is staying over the cold water stirred up by the storm's winds, inhibiting intensification, but the waters underneath Leslie are warm to great depth, making this less of a factor than usual. According to the latest SHIPS model forecast, the shear is expected to fall steadily today, reaching the low category, 5 - 10 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Leslie is over warm ocean waters of 29 - 30°C, and the reduction in shear and warm waters should aid intensification, and potentially allow Leslie to be at Category 2 strength at its closest pass by Bermuda Saturday night and early Sunday morning, as indicated by the official NHC forecast. The latest 11 am EDT NHC wind probability forecast calls for a 48% chance that Leslie will be a Category 2 or stronger hurricane Sunday morning at 8 am EDT. Leslie is a huge storm, and tropical storm-force winds are expected to extend outward from its center 250 miles by Friday. Bermuda is likely to see a 42-hour period of tropical storm-force winds beginning Saturday morning near 2 am AST, and lasting until 8 pm AST Sunday night. The official NHC forecast shows Leslie nearly making a direct hit on Bermuda, and Leslie will be capable of bringing an extended period of hurricane-force winds lasting six or more hours to Bermuda Saturday night through Sunday morning, should a direct hit materialize. NHC is predicting that hurricane-force winds will extend outwards from the center of Leslie by 35 miles on Thursday night, and I expect this will increase to at least 60 miles by early Sunday morning, when Leslie will be making its closest pass by Bermuda.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Leslie. Heavy thunderstorms have built near the center of the storm, and Leslie is near hurricane strength.

Leslie's impact on Canada
Leslie will stay stuck in a weak steering current environment until a strong trough of low pressure approaches the U.S. East Coast on Saturday. The timing of this trough is such that Leslie will be pulled northwards and then north-northeastwards over the weekend. There are still significant differences among the models in the timing and speed of Leslie's track over the weekend, but we can now dismiss the threat of Leslie making a direct hit on New England. The storm is likely to make landfall in Nova Scotia or Newfoundland, though there are significant differences in the models' predictions of the timing of Leslie's arrival in Canada. The GFS model predicts an early Tuesday landfall in Newfoundland, but the ECMWF model is much faster and farther west, predicting a Monday afternoon landfall in Nova Scotia. Large swells from Leslie are pounding the entire Eastern Seaboard, and these waves will increase in size as Leslie grows in strength this week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into Leslie on Thursday afternoon.


Figure 2. Morning radar image of Invest 90L off the coast of the Florida Panhandle.

Son of Isaac: Invest 90L emerges in the Gulf of Mexico
During Tropical Depression Isaac's trek across the center of the U.S. during the Labor Day weekend, the storm was ripped in half. One portion of the storm moved over the Northeast U.S., bringing heavy rains there, and another portion sank southwards over Alabama. You can see this split by studying an animation of the vorticity at 850 mb (the amount of spin at low levels of the atmosphere, near 5,000 feet above sea level) from the University of Wisconsin. This remnant of Isaac, which still maintained some of Isaac's spin, brought heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches that caused flooding problems over portions of Alabama on Tuesday. The storm has now emerged over the Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Panhandle, and was designated Invest 90L this morning by NHC. In their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 90L a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning. According to NHC naming rules, "if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name". Since "the remnant" refers to the primary remnant, and 90L does not fit the definition of a "primary remnant", the storm will be given a new name should it develop into a tropical storm, according to information posted on the NHC Facebook page. Esau or Jacob--the names of the sons of the biblical Isaac--would be fitting names for 90L, but the next storm on the list of Atlantic storms is Nadine.

Long-range radar out of Mobile, Alabama shows a large area of heavy rainfall along the coast due to 90L. The echoes do show some spiral banding behavior, but there is only a slight evidence of rotation to the storm. Infrared satellite loops show that the thunderstorms associated with 90L are not that vigorous and do not have particularly cold cloud tops, and the area covered by the thunderstorms is relatively small. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the northern Gulf of Mexico, but is predicted to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Thursday afternoon. Ocean temperatures in the Gulf have been cooled down considerably by the passage of Hurricane Isaac last week, and are 28 - 28.5°C. This is still plenty warm enough to support formation of a tropical storm, and I expect 90L will increase in organization on Thursday and Friday as it moves slowly south or south-southwest. 90L could become a tropical depression as early as Thursday, though Friday is more likely. A hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate 90L on Thursday afternoon. A trough of low pressure and an associated surface cold front will move southeastwards over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, and this trough should be capable of pulling 90L to the northeast to a landfall along the Florida Panhandle or west coast of Florida on Sunday.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Michael.

Tropical Storm Michael in the Central Atlantic
Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week. Satellite loops show that this is a small tropical cyclone, far out over the open Atlantic, and none of the models show that Michael will threaten any land areas.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a new tropical wave due to move off the coast of Africa on Friday will develop into a tropical depression by the middle of next week. It's too early to tell if this system might threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. pottery
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at how that area is with plenty of convection and it has not emerged West Africa.


Yeah, that's a healthy looking one there.
Need to see if it will maintain it's convection over the water, as it comes off.

There is very little SAL. That should help it.
But a fair amount of dry air, which won't.....
1002. FMDawg
Quoting spathy:
This is a cruel joke!


I am directly under the y in Myers and not a drop.
And I am not kidding I pulled brown dry weeds today.
1003. FMDawg
Quoting spathy:
This is a cruel joke!


I am directly under the y in Myers and not a drop.
And I am not kidding I pulled brown dry weeds today.


It's been pouring at 75 & Daniels for the last hour.
Quoting captainktainer:
Leslie and Michael are about 2000 km apart. What do people think about the possibility that they'll get another 500 km closer and start a Fujiwhara effect, and potentially throw Leslie's course further south and west?


Michael is too small to be significant.
1005. Walshy
Quoting captainktainer:
Leslie and Michael are about 2000 km apart. What do people think about the possibility that they'll get another 500 km closer and start a Fujiwhara effect, and potentially throw Leslie's course further south and west?


Keep dreaming.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Look at how that area is with plenty of convection and it has not emerged West Africa.


Wow, looking good already. It should have a good environment for strengthening and this is the next long range threat.
Derived from NHC_ATCF data for HurricaneLeslie for 6Sept12amGMT
All times in GMT. BDA is Bermuda
The southernmost dot on the connected lines is Leslie's position starting its 6th day as a TropicalStorm
The southernmost dot on the longest line is where TS.Leslie's became HurricaneLeslie, and its most recently reported position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TS.Leslie's 2 most recent positions to it's closest approach to Bermuda
5Sept.12am: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 238miles(383kilometres)SWest of Bermuda
5Sept.06am: TS.Leslie had been for passage 88miles(141kilometres)WSWest of Bermuda
5Sept.12pm: TS.Leslie had been headed for passage 108miles(174kilometres)East of Bermuda
5Sept.06pm: H.Leslie had been headed for passage 290miles(467kilometres)ESE of Bermuda
6Sept.12am: H.Leslie was heading for passage 331miles(532kilometres)ESEast of Bermuda

Copy&paste 29.885n67.781w, 31.729n66.233w, 32.382n62.8w, 30.6278n60.166w, 32.281n64.887w-bda-32.368n64.647w, 24.8n62.5w-25.0n62.6w, 25.0n62.6w-25.1n62.7w, 25.1n62.7w-25.3n62.8w, 25.3n62.8w-25.6n62.8w, 25.6n62.8w-25.8n62.7w, 25.8n62.7w-26.1n62.5w, 25.8n62.7w-29.887n59.866w, 32.368n64.647w-29.887n59.866w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
Quoting captainktainer:
Leslie and Michael are about 2000 km apart. What do people think about the possibility that they'll get another 500 km closer and start a Fujiwhara effect, and potentially throw Leslie's course further south and west?

I doubt a Fujiwara effect would happen and I don't think they will get close enough to do so anyway.
I have to go to bed, good night. It will be interesting to see what Leslie and Michael look like in the morning.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Wow, looking good already. It should have a good environment for strengthening and this is the next long range threat.


Is timing once again for this potential development. If the ridge builds back after Leslie and Michael are gone,then it may pose a threat to the NE Caribbean but if the ridge doesn't build fast enough, then it goes on a sharp recurve mode.

Good night 97.
1011. Shluggo
looks like Leslie could be forming a giant eye, although this may take a couple of days.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Is timing once again for this potential development. If the ridge builds back after Leslie and Michael are gone,then it may pose a threat to the NE Caribbean but if the ridge doesn't build fast enough, then it goes on a sharp recurve mode.


Good night 97. Oh boy,I replied to my own post,things happen.
1013. bappit
Some definitions from the Glossary of NHC Terms that might be worth noting, not that these topics are currently an issue.

Present Movement:
The best estimate of the movement of the center of a tropical cyclone at a given time and given position. This estimate does not reflect the short-period, small scale oscillations of the cyclone center.

Relocated:
A term used in an advisory to indicate that a vector drawn from the preceding advisory position to the latest known position is not necessarily a reasonable representation of the cyclone's movement.

Edit: another definition to note.

Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind. Compare indirect hit, strike.


Indirect Hit:
Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.
Hypothetically, if something were to develop in the Gulf, which direction would be more likely from the conditions?
Quoting TampaBayfisher:
Hypothetically, if something were to develop in the Gulf, which direction would be more likely from the conditions?


A poleward path toward Florida. The only chance Louisiana has of getting hit again is for it to move farther south than anticipated.
Every year someone expects a Fujiwara. I remember in 2005 when people were asking if one could happen wih Wilma and Alpha, but Wilma just ripped the kid apart and ate him. Now, Michael is much better defined than Alpha ever was, and can last longer if he gets tangled up in Leslie's circulation, but she will still chip away until he dies if he gets close enough. She has a large and powerful circulation.

That being said, I mused at the possibility that if he gets close enough and is strong enough, he might just latch onto her like a clingfish and let her spin take him for a ride, but she might just hurl him somewhere cold and far away or something.

I also think that his rapid intensification was aided by Leslie's sheer size; she's the buffer that's been shielding him from nearly every hostile thing thrown at him by the environment, she's just a monster that eats everything haha.
1017. Grothar
Blob Alert #5

Quoting LostTomorrows:
she's just a monster that eats everything haha.




Middle monster.

(Now I have the inkling to play this game again. It was just that awesome.)
Thank you, KoritheMan. Is there a ridge to the west blocking it from going that way or is it just late enough for them to curve like Wilma?
has a single storm ever been in the gulf three times?
Quoting TampaBayfisher:
Thank you, KoritheMan. Is there a ridge to the west blocking it from going that way or is it just late enough for them to curve like Wilma?


A little of both. There is a ridge over Texas (what else is new, lol), but climatology doesn't favor a meandering westward moving system in September. Generally the troughs start to pick it up this time of year, especially in this location.

One thing to watch for in regards to a threat to the northern Gulf Coast is that this ridge advances a little eastward, which could cause it to keep moving southwestward longer than the models are indicating. This could happen with the shortwave over Oklahoma. However, water vapor imagery suggests a mostly zonal flow accompanying the trough, implying that it is weak in nature.
0z microwave pass over 90L:



Pitiful.
Quoting KoritheMan:


A poleward path toward Florida. The only chance Louisiana has of getting hit again is for it to move farther south than anticipated.

Any possibility that 90L could undergo rapid intensification like Humberto or Alicia?
Quoting lobdelse81:

Any possibility that 90L could undergo rapid intensification like Humberto or Alicia?


I'd say like 2%, lol.
1025. bappit
Conditions were perfect for Humberto. The Gulf has cooled off some, has shear issues and there is lots of dry air over here towards Texas.
Quoting spathy:
This is a cruel joke!


I am directly under the y in Myers and not a drop.
And I am not kidding I pulled brown dry weeds today.




Brown Weeds? I haven't seen those since May. Although it hasn't rained since the rain from Isaac, we've had at 12 inches a month around here for June, July, and August each, because of that the ground is still wet and, the ponds and ditches are still full to the brim and everything is bright green.
1027. bappit
Alicia didn't do the RI thing. It hung out there for a while (60 hours after becoming a tropical storm) and intensified steadily.
1028. Grothar


Undergoing rapid blobification.

Models a little more to Central Florida now

Quoting KoritheMan:


I'd say like 2%, lol.

Rapid blobification happening with 90L, lol.
Quoting Grothar:


Undergoing rapid blobification.

Models a little more to Central Florida now



Probably the next torrential rain maker for Central Florida. Probably gonna get several inches of rain around Tampa Bay before all is said and done. The Bucs home opener is going to be this Sunday, the pirate ship may capsize, lol.
1031. SLU
NHC advisory aside .... Michael is probably closing in on cat 3 strength by now ...

Looking at intensity here are a few of the issues Leslie has at the moment...

After struggling for several days, Leslie has finally managed to get convection over its center and expand outflow in all quadrants. Shear is still present, however, and the NHC has noted the storm is not perfectly stacked. Some dry air has also been ingested into the circulation as evident by the areas void of convection around the circulation. Slow forward motion had cooled sea surface temperatures as a result of mixing and upwelling. TPW and WV imagery also shows pretty dry air to the west of Leslie.

Check that water vapor loop and you can see the upper level outflow clouds evaporating to the west of Leslie (a result of convergent flow aloft, drying the atmosphere) as well as pockets void of convection over the circulation (a sign of less instability, likely a result of some dry air and upwelling)

Quoting LostTomorrows:
Every year someone expects a Fujiwara. I remember in 2005 when people were asking if one could happen wih Wilma and Alpha, but Wilma just ripped the kid apart and ate him. Now, Michael is much better defined than Alpha ever was, and can last longer if he gets tangled up in Leslie's circulation, but she will still chip away until he dies if he gets close enough. She has a large and powerful circulation.

That being said, I mused at the possibility that if he gets close enough and is strong enough, he might just latch onto her like a clingfish and let her spin take him for a ride, but she might just hurl him somewhere cold and far away or something.

I also think that his rapid intensification was aided by Leslie's sheer size; she's the buffer that's been shielding him from nearly every hostile thing thrown at him by the environment, she's just a monster that eats everything haha.
Fujiwaras and pinhole eyes...people love to point at the possibility of these events, though they rarely ever do occur.

And Leslie's massive outflow would destroy Michael if he got any closer. May even begin to shear the storm tomorrow.
1034. LBAR
Are there any ship or buoy reports in the Atlantic between Leslie and Michael? I have wonder what happens when the waves moving east from Leslie meet the waves moving west from Michael.
Quoting LBAR:
Are there any ship or buoy reports in the Atlantic between Leslie and Michael? I have wonder what happens when the waves moving east from Leslie meet the waves moving west from Michael.
They pass through each other...energy from one swell isn't significantly dissipated by the energy of another swell should their paths meet. At any given time a buoy is receiving swells from all different directions.
1036. LBAR
Quoting TomTaylor:
They pass each through each other...energy from one swell isn't significantly dissipated by the energy of another swell should their paths meet. At any given time a buoy is receiving swells from all different directions.


I was expecting a huge crescendo of waves when the 2 sets of propagating waves met.
1037. Grothar
Quoting Jedkins01:


Probably the next torrential rain maker for Central Florida. Probably gonna get several inches of rain around Tampa Bay before all is said and done. The Bucs home opener is going to be this Sunday, the pirate ship may capsize, lol.


You lol at that? :)
Quoting LBAR:


I was expecting a huge crescendo of waves when the 2 sets of propagating waves met.
Oh, yeah, if two waves met they would slosh together to produce a bigger wave. I'm not sure how well buoys account for this. I know wave models account for significant wave height for the dominant swell, but they don't account for waves coming from different directions and peaking. And I think buoys work similarly, accounting for the highest wave heights from a specific swell.

The thing in this case, however, is that Michael is so far away from Leslie that his waves will not meet Leslie's for a while.
1040. snowboy
Michael has to be at least Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3..
1041. sar2401
Quoting snowboy:
Michael has to be at least Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3..


Other than the fact he looks nice, what makes you think that?
HWRF 250mb Wind Streamline Intialization shows the incredibly convergent flow aloft to the west of Leslie. This is occurring as a result of SWerly flow between the ULL over the Bahamas and the ULAC over Haiti pushing air toward Leslie on the west side which creates convergence with Leslie's outflow. Furthermore, the ridge to the north of Leslie is bending the westerlies around the periphery of this feature causing it to converge with the SWerly flow produced by the ULL and ULAC as well as outflow from Leslie. The ULL over the Bahamas, ULAC over Haiti, and ridge to the north of Leslie have formed a trifecta to create strong upper convergence to the west and northwest of Leslie.

18z GFDL 250mb Wind Streamlines at 0hrs


1043. ededed
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.0W AT 06/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

That escalated quickly...
1044. sar2401
Quoting TomTaylor:
Oh, yeah, if two waves met they would slosh together to produce a bigger wave. I'm not sure how well buoys account for this. I know wave models account for significant wave height for the dominant swell, but they don't account for waves coming from different directions and peaking. And I think buoys work similarly, accounting for the highest wave heights from a specific swell.

The thing in this case, however, is that Michael is so far away from Leslie that his waves will not meet Leslie's for a while.


From my sailing days, they would be swells in the open ocean, rather than waves. As you said, they basically pass through each other. The larger swell just passed over the smaller swell with no real change in height. The only time I noticed two opposing swells is when they were actually hitting my hull. In that case, the larger and smaller swells kind of fought it out. Other than hitting something solid, like a hull or a shoreline, it was just what's called a "confused sea". Different swells coming from different directions. I was never able to pick out exactly what direction the swells were coming from if there were two different storms far away from each other.
1045. sar2401
Quoting ededed:
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.0W AT 06/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

That escalated quickly...


Wowsers! I withdraw my question, Snowboy. I guess a pretty face does mean something. :)
Ooooooh, special advisory! Go Michael! I want his autograph. He's Bad, and a Thriller to watch.

Leslie looks to be getting better organized again, she's moving ever so slightly more, which certainly helps.
TRMM of outer bands of Leslie. Click pic for quicktime movie.
Quoting snowboy:
Michael has to be at least Cat. 2 if not Cat. 3..


Nah, I'd say Category 2, about 85 kt. If you look closely, the eye is still a bit ragged and partially cloud filled.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Nah, I'd say Category 2, about 85 kt. If you look closely, the eye is still a bit ragged and partially cloud filled.


I was close. :P
DATE/TIME: 06/0415 UTC
LAT: 29.3N LON 42.1W
CLASSIFICATION: T5.0/5.0
STORM: MICHAEL -- Atlantic
& WOW TRMM caught the eye of MICHAEL. Click pic for Very Large quicktime movie..

Quoting KoritheMan:


Nah, I'd say Category 2, about 85 kt. If you look closely, the eye is still a bit ragged and partially cloud filled.

According to the NHC, at least, Michael is a Cat 2. Looks like some dynamite in that small package.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
100 AM AST THU SEP 06 2012

...MICHAEL RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 42.0W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.0 WEST. MICHAEL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE
NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MICHAEL
IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND
SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
1054. sar2401
Quoting TomTaylor:
Looking at intensity here are a few of the issues Leslie has at the moment...

After struggling for several days, Leslie has finally managed to get convection over its center and expand outflow in all quadrants. Shear is still present, however, and the NHC has noted the storm is not perfectly stacked. Some dry air has also been ingested into the circulation as evident by the areas void of convection around the circulation. Slow forward motion had cooled sea surface temperatures as a result of mixing and upwelling. TPW and WV imagery also shows pretty dry air to the west of Leslie.

Check that water vapor loop and you can see the upper level outflow clouds evaporating to the west of Leslie (a result of convergent flow aloft, drying the atmosphere) as well as pockets void of convection over the circulation (a sign of less instability, likely a result of some dry air and upwelling)



Good analysis. Leslie has never been able to fight off that shear and dry air to the west, and convection in the left quadrants has always been weak. Her huge size is what's managed to keep her alive long enough to get to a better environment. I'm sure glad she hasn't had the apparently perfect conditions that Michael has. Otherwise, she would be about a category 10 by now. :)
Check out the hot tower that was on 90L.. click pic, there is a lot of moisture there.
Quoting sar2401:


From my sailing days, they would be swells in the open ocean, rather than waves. As you said, they basically pass through each other. The larger swell just passed over the smaller swell with no real change in height. The only time I noticed two opposing swells is when they were actually hitting my hull. In that case, the larger and smaller swells kind of fought it out. Other than hitting something solid, like a hull or a shoreline, it was just what's called a "confused sea". Different swells coming from different directions. I was never able to pick out exactly what direction the swells were coming from if there were two different storms far away from each other.
Yeah makes sense. About the waves, I was assuming he was referring to what a buoy would feel if it were within the storm's circulation. Within the circulation, with the strong winds, you'd likely see large waves, though they wouldn't ever break, just sort of rise and fall.
1057. sar2401
I see everyone was right on top of that special advisory. If we only have one major this season, it will hopefully be Michael. He can spin around in the open ocen, not hurt anything, and it will satisfy the salivating masses here. :)
Quoting ededed:
HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.0W AT 06/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

That escalated quickly...
Wow. NHC not on the conservative side this time.

Eye has cleared out a bit more, and now the temperature contrast between the eyewall and eye is more significant, allowing dvorak estimates to jump.
1059. sar2401
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah makes sense. About the waves, I was assuming he was referring to what a buoy would feel if it were within the storm's circulation. Within the circulation, with the strong winds, you'd likely see large waves, though they wouldn't ever break, just sort of rise and fall.


Thankfully, I was never dumb enough to get tangled up in a really large storm, but I've been through some pretty good gales. If a bouy was in the wind field of one storm, so it produced wind driven waves, and the storm further away was only producing swells, the waves win every time. I don't think you'd even notice opposing swell until you were well out of the wind field.
Michael may very well be our 1 major of the season.
Wait... what?

Michael not only became a hurricane this evening, he's well on his way to being our first major?!!
Well that's a fine howdy do!

When Dr. Masters wrote, "Tropical Storm Michael has strengthened to 50 mph winds, and appears to have a favorable enough environment to become a hurricane later this week." he probably didn't think it'd be later this DAY. haha
1062. sar2401
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the hot tower that was on 90L.. click pic, there is a lot of moisture there.


For some reason, QT is not working for me. At any rate, being in the middle of what has become 90L, I don't need convincing of how much moisture it carried with it. :) I still don't understand the forcing mechanisms that caused that storm to be so intense over land, and I really don't understand what it's doing over water. Wherever this thing lands up, it going to be mighty wet, that I can say with certainty.
1063. tj175
Wow Michael went from Ragged looking last night around this time all the way to a Cat 2. Wow talk about rapid intensification. Satellite presentation looks awesome
Quoting sar2401:


Thankfully, I was never dumb enough to get tangled up in a really large storm, but I've been through some pretty good gales. If a bouy was in the wind field of one storm, so it produced wind driven waves, and the storm further away was only producing swells, the waves win every time. I don't think you'd even notice opposing swell until you were well out of the wind field.
Yeah you're right. The opposing swell would still be there though. It'd show up on the other side of the storm.
Quoting Skyepony:
Check out the hot tower that was on 90L.. click pic, there is a lot of moisture there.


We went from being dry as a bone here in the St. Louis area, to having dewpoints so high you practically need scuba gear to breathe outside after Isaac. I can believe wherever the rest of that storm went, it's gonna POUR.
90-L has a very small window of opportunity to
develop due to the approaching LW but we are
looking forward to cooler weather with the passage of
the Associated Cold front this weekend..Its not
often as a mariner we get Northerly winds and
drier air in Sept. Currently at 27.6 N and 91.9 W
we have WSW winds at 10 kts and 2 ft seas.
I see Isaac is back in the saddle again ...



Post 106. OracleDeAtlantis 7:23 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men.

1068. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 445 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...AND
ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 1045 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

1. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
1069. bappit
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:


We went from being dry as a bone here in the St. Louis area, to having dewpoints so high you practically need scuba gear to breathe outside after Isaac. I can believe wherever the rest of that storm went, it's gonna POUR.

30% humidity in Houston. Weenie cumulus overhead.

FIRE...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE...HOT FEW DAYS BEFORE THE FRONT GETS HERE AND EXPECT THE DEWPOINT TO MIX OUT QUICKLY IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS WITH RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 35 PERCENT BUT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH TIME.
Is 90L anyhow somehow from the remnants of Karen? LOL...couldn't resist. This is the oldest humor on the blog, but it gets old gracefully.

These are my real questions:

Now, the thought is that 90L will be Nadine if named, not Issac, correct?

Who thinks Leslie could go west? The models are spread. I go by the NHC line, but it could go west just as much as it could east. I heard that if a closed low formed off of Florida, Leslie would be pushed more northwest. Has that happened? It seemed like it has, with 90L. How I looked at climatology and half of the hurricanes went west and scraped the East Coast as strong systems.

Please let me know.
1071. bappit
Michael really putting on a show tonight ...

1074. sar2401
Quoting popartpete:
Is 90L anyhow somehow from the remnants of Karen? LOL...couldn't resist. This is the oldest humor on the blog, but it gets old gracefully.

These are my real questions:

Now, the thought is that 90L will be Nadine if named, not Issac, correct?

Who thinks Leslie could go west? The models are spread. I go by the NHC line, but it could go west just as much as it could east. I heard that if a closed low formed off of Florida, Leslie would be pushed more northwest. Has that happened? It seemed like it has, with 90L. How I looked at climatology and half of the hurricanes went west and scraped the East Coast as strong systems.

Please let me know.


A hurricane went west and scraped the East Coast? Your understanding of geography is a little deficient. 90L does not have a single model that shows it going west of LA before turning back east towards FL. 90L is drifting SW now because the steering currents are weak. A strong trough should be out in the Gulf by Saturday, thus the abrupt turn to the east, as the trough pushes it in that directon. The chances that 90L could continue on westerly path are as close to zero as you can get.

Edit: Never mind, I was totally confused with your mention of 90L and didn't read carefully enough. I think the chances of Leslie bumping along the east coast are also very low but not zero.
1075. VR46L
Quoting 954FtLCane:


awww..pretty green. It wants to be an Irish storm.


No thanks !!! LOL
1076. sar2401
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
I see Isaac is back in the saddle again ...



Post 106. OracleDeAtlantis 7:23 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

No offense to the science of meteorology, but a butterfly in China can be observed to fly circles around Dr. Gray and his team; and I hear the butterflies in China are choking on U.S.

For upon her wings are the eyes of the earth, seeing the unfolding of every birth.

From above the trees and beyond sky, to the state of confusion what it denies.

Never before found such a plight that befell them that are without sight.

Now see before you the industry of sin, and return by fury the fallacy of men.



Well, that's 5:28 minutes of my life I'm never getting back. Oracle, you are officially nominated for Most Bizarre Post of the Year. :)
good morning everybody! just did a double today and gotta be back at 10am.I see we have two HURRICANES! invest 90L. It surely seems like september is the month to remember!

1078. sar2401
This has to be some kind of record. Middle of hurricane season, Michael just had a major upgrade, Leslie still out there, and 90L doing whatever it's going to do...and we had 12 posts in the last hour, including mine. Must be an early night for everyone. See you all in the morning, when I expect everything in the Gulf and Atlantic to be up to at least cat 4. :)
well michael could be the first major this season. I think it can do it at 4am IMO
WOW!



Leslie
It appears 90L strengthened since I look hours ago. Going to check the maps out now to see if track changed at all.

On a side note....I can't believe I'm up at this time ;-(
Intensity models are not showing more than 50mph winds for 90L
1086. bappit
Quoting SpicyAngel1072:
It appears 90L strengthened since I look hours ago. Going to check the maps out now to see if track changed at all.

On a side note....I can't believe I'm up at this time ;-(

Get some sleep!
No track change either for 90L..... Coming right over northern central FL.

When is the shear supposed to drop to give this invest time to develop? What do you think are the chances and how strong?
What a season this is! :D
Quoting bappit:

Get some sleep!


I wish...woke up and can't get back to sleep
1090. LargoFl
Wow, Michael is a Category 2 hurricane!
I can't believe it!
ADT is already thinking Michael is a major:
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.6mb/102.0kt

Also ATCF is thinking 95 kt
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.4N LONCUR = 42.0W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 28.7N LONM12 = 42.9W DIRM12 = 49DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 27.8N LONM24 = 43.9W
WNDCUR = 95KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 968MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 40NM
1092. LargoFl
wouldnt be surprised cat 3 115mph at 5am for mike
1094. smuldy
Michael=major=outflow=trajectory change for Leslie/=Either storm being ripped to shreds by other+90L getting pulled NE in 3 days(probably)=most complicated synpotic setup I've ever seen for the Atlantic basin
Michael the first major storm of the season?
Quoting smuldy:
Michael=major=outflow=trajectory change for Leslie/=Either storm being ripped to shreds by other+90L getting pulled NE in 3 days(probably)=most complicated synpotic setup I've ever seen for the Atlantic basin


I know right??

Got rain for a couple days when Isaac came through....Got rain day before yesterday when his remnant passed us going back south....and now it is back in the gulf??? Michael turning into a monster...I know that the Weather is a spectator sport....but crazy stuff like this is why we LOVE it!!
Leslie still at 75 mph
MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE SEASON MICHAEL
MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE YEAR...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6
Location: 29.6 N 41.7 W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph


i got it right i knew it!
good morning major mike!

LESLIE CREEPING NORTHWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6
Location: 26.3 N 62.4 W
Moving: N at 1 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

hey NHC might as well say stationary! SMH!
Oh my, now I don't know whether to go to sleep finally. Michael is very interesting.
Good Morning MAJOR MIKE!
13-7-1 so far more to come!



Sunrise
7 Hurricanes with no majors..that record didn't last long thanks to Michael.."The Little Engine That Could"
After the cold front goes across the CONUS, It is my belief hurricane season is over for the CONUS!
oh.no.no..evil.monkey
Good morning, all. Another 94% humidity day, but the temps have gone from almost 90 degrees at 4:30 to ten degrees cooler. So Michael made it to a major, glad he is heading for land.
Quoting weathercat64:

Sunrise


Beautiful. It's funny because a lot us of thought Michael would amount to nothing, and I think the NHC was thinking the same when they started initiating advisories. Just goes to show...
WITH MICHAEL BECOMING THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE SEASON EARLIER
TODAY...IT MARKS THE THIRD EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE SEVENTH
HURRICANE IN A YEAR...ONLY BEHIND 1886 AND 1893.
A couple of nice-looking candidates, one emerging from Africa and the other moving across the continent:

Africa
The recent rapid intensification is clearly shown here.


And according to NHC estimates,
the storm has strengthened from 45 kt to 100 kt, 1005 mb to 965 mb in 24 hours (55 kt increase in 24 hrs) proving the RI.

Nobody thought Michael would rapidly intensify, including the NHC:
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

This shows how much more we have to do to understand the beauty of tropical cyclones.

By the way, rapid intensification means an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.
1111. flcanes
Quoting Bobbyweather:
The recent rapid intensification is clearly shown here.


And according to NHC estimates,
the storm has strengthened from 45 kt to 100 kt, 1005 mb to 965 mb in 24 hours (55 kt increase in 24 hrs) proving the RI.

Nobody thought Michael would rapidly intensify, including the NHC:
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

This shows how much more we have to do to understand the beauty of tropical cyclones.

By the way, rapid intensification means an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.

wow
Adding to my previous comment:
If this intensification continues, we will be looking at a Category 4 tomorrow. Michael strengthened from a 70 mph tropical storm to 115 mph major hurricane in just twelve hours, a 45 mph (40 kt) increase, so a minimal Category 5 is not out of the question, assuming it remains under favorable conditions.

But in my opinion, RI has to stop soon. If it doesn't, everybody will be saying CAT 5! CAT 5! by the end of the day.
records?...60s.first.photos.from.space..
13-7-1.


Defiantly wasn't expecting Michael to become a major hurricane.
Congratulation to Michael for becoming the first major of the year, actually having something NHC likes since they kept refusing to give it to Gordon or Kirk.
1116. WxLogic
Good Morning...
What a waste of a name... Totally inflating the seasonal totals.

1118. WxLogic
Thankfully Mike is not hitting Bermuda.
good job Michael haha :p
1120. WxLogic
For now northerly shear affecting 90L and keeping it in check.
If Michael manages to become a Category 5 hurricane by this afternoon, it will be one of the fastest storms to strengthen from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane.

WILMA : 60, 65, 75, 130, 150, 160 (peak)
FELIX : 60, 65, 85, 90, 115, 150 (peak)
Michael : 60, 65, 95, , ,
(wind speeds in kt)
1122. GetReal



700-850mb Steering Layer:



IMO 90L is looking better this morning despite battling some shearing conditions... It appears that 90L will be sticking around the central GOM for at least the next 36 hours...
Major Hurricane Michael the first major of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season:



Michael is my kind of storm. Beautiful structure, with a well developed eye and out in the middle of nowhere!
Good Morning everyone, I see Leslie is the same but Michael is now a cat3. That happened very fast, throws off my prediction. Now the count is 13/7/1.
I didnt't expect to wake up and see Michael as a MH.
The other day it was just a small thunderstorm that was TD13.
NHC thought Mike would have a peak of 40mph...
Look how great that forecast panned out :P
If this were to hold true Bermuda would be spared the absolute worst from Leslie:

Meanwhile back home showers and storms bumping up along the coast:

Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)
Quoting Bobbyweather:
The recent rapid intensification is clearly shown here.


And according to NHC estimates,
the storm has strengthened from 45 kt to 100 kt, 1005 mb to 965 mb in 24 hours (55 kt increase in 24 hrs) proving the RI.

Nobody thought Michael would rapidly intensify, including the NHC:
24H 06/0600Z 29.4N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

This shows how much more we have to do to understand the beauty of tropical cyclones.

By the way, rapid intensification means an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 kt in a 24-h period.
And people said Issac would go through RI...
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)


I'll take your word for it.
Good catch!
I think im just about out of the clear with leslie!
Everyone have a great Thursday.
Michael Michael motorcycle.....

wait....no one can tease you anymore.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Worth noting that Michael is the first completely non-tropically developing major hurricane since Hurricane Claudette in 1991 (ie, not developing from a tropical wave)


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...
1137. Thrawst
Told you guys that Michael is a BIG MAN!
Quoting forecaster1:


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...

No, ULL cutoff spawned him :)
Quoting forecaster1:


No, If you go back and look at the loop Mike popped off of a wave as it exited Africa...


Incorrect, Michael developed non-tropically.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Conditions at 41049 as of
1050 GMT on 09/06/2012:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 40.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 25.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.9 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 97 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.57 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.01 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.2 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 71.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 44.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 46.6 kts
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Incorrect, Michael developed non-tropically.

1. A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa
90L down to 40%.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Quoting forecaster1:


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa

It was still non-tropical, the first major to do so since 1991.
90L down to 40%
With Leslie and Michael displacing the A-B high, any disturbances trekking across the Atlantic in the deep tropics would have a hard time getting as far west as the eastern Caribbean before recurvature takes place. Next week might be a different story, but the Cape Verde season doesn't have much farther to go before it shuts down.
1148. icmoore
Good morning everyone. Whats up with the 2am models of 90L it looks like he wants to go to Cuba now :) Some beautiful clouds over the Gulf this morning.
MLB discussion

SUN-WED...FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MESSY IN THIS TIME FRAME. A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER WARM NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS IS BEING MONITORED
BY NHC FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A RECON PLANE MAY FLY
INTO IT LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEAR WATCHING CLOSELY GIVEN
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO LOCAL AREA IF IT DOES FORM INTO A TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA. HOWEVER...EVEN IF THIS
SYSTEM DOES NOT GET ORGANIZED THERE IS GOING TO BE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PRESSING INTO FLORIDA WITH A DEEP FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
IT...BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN TRENDS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS DECIDED TO RAMP POPS UP SOME
IN THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH
NUMEROUS/LIKELY CATEGORY. HEADING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
MODELS TRYING TO PUSH THE DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH AND DEVELOP ONSHORE
FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. STAY TUNED AS
MORE DETAILS OF THIS COMPLEX SCENARIO UNFOLDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS.
Quoting icmoore:
Good morning everyone. Whats up with the 2am models of 90L it looks like he wants to go to Cuba now :) Some beautiful clouds over the Gulf this morning.

Good morning, 90L might have a mind of its own.
A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29.5N88W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 55 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N 89.5W...ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

Looks like 90L wants to pull some moisture up from the Caribbean.
1152. icmoore
Quoting wxchaser97:

Good morning, 90L might have a mind of its own.


LOL I don't think you will get any argument from anybody about that!
All of our hurricanes (cat 2 or higher) have formed >25N, none below. Of 7 hurricanes, only one has been one in the caribbean
It's a good thing this isn't making landfall anywhere as those people would have problems. What a beautiful storm with the great eye and eyewall, the structure, and the awesomeness.
Quoting icmoore:


LOL I don't think you will get any argument from anybody about that!

Nope, its the son/daughter of Isaac so its supposed to have a mind of its own.
Micheal is a major?!!?? Whaaaaat?.
Quoting forecaster1:


Call it what you want the energy came off of Africa


The energy from Michael has no relations with Africa. It's a surface trough that interacted with an ULL that managed to hit perfect conditions to intensify. That's at least what the NHC thinks, and I'll agree with them. Even if it is related to a tropical wave, it is still not a fully tropical development as ULL are cold core, in that case it would be the first major hurricane of not 100% tropical origins to develop since Hurricane Rita in 2005 and my point still remains - it's rare to have major hurricanes develop from anything other than tropical waves.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal is a major?!!?? Whaaaaat?.

Yup, became a major this morning and he is a great storm.
I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!
Perfect eye.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!

Oh yeah you get up at like 4am or something like that. I was shocked when I got up to see Michael a major.
1161. LargoFl
ZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
555 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-061600 -
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
555 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCES AWAY FROM THE COAST AS WIND QUICKLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY STORMS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH BEST CHANCES
OVER THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COOL FRONT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES OVER THE WEEKEND.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE INCREASING TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Quoting wxchaser97:

Yup, became a major this morning and he is a great storm.
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.
Cannot say I'm surprised..

1164. LargoFl
ND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. THE 32N45W 30N48W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS LESS AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW...GIVEN ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT EXISTS AROUND
HURRICANE MICHAEL. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW REACHES TO 34N42W.

A NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 29.5N88W...ABOUT 50 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A
55 NM RADIUS OF 27.5N 89.5W...ABOUT 65 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN TIP OF LOUISIANA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

NONE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 15N30W...TO 12N40W AND 10N48W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N48W...TO 11N56W AND 11N61W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 15N
BETWEEN 15W AND 18W AND FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 15.5N24W IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 15.5N32W AND 14.5N39W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
3.5N TO 7.5N TO THE EAST OF 24W AND FROM 6N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 33N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 28N78W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST...THROUGH 22N79W IN
CUBA...TO 19N82W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...TO 16N85W NEAR THE COAST OF HONDURAS. A SEPARATE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES IN MEXICO NEAR
23N102W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM
FLORIDA TO THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N
TO 28N BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL FLORIDA...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 20N TO 25N BETWEEN 72W AND 81W FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!
Perfect eye.

I wouldn't say perfect. It's tilted a bit from the southwest to northeast.
1166. LargoFl
CAT_3...............MICHAEL BECOMES THE FIRST CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE OF THE 2012
HURRICANE SEASON. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL AT 06/0900 UTC
IS NEAR 29.6N 41.7W. MICHAEL IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 6 KNOTS.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 120 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT33 KNHC AND UNDER
AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT3. THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT23 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT3. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 13 NM FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 40W
AND 43W. THE 32N45W 30N48W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
FROM SIX HOURS AGO IS LESS AND LESS WELL-DEFINED NOW...GIVEN ITS
PROXIMITY TO THE LARGE-SCALE CIRCULATION THAT EXISTS AROUND
HURRICANE MICHAEL. THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH NOW REACHES TO 34N42W.
1167. icmoore
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.


From pathetic to perfect in only a few days...a lesson to be remembered there.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.

This will put to rest the global warming arguments now that storms are now getting suppressed and we won't see a major anymore because they think that the planet is warming.

Only now the global warming folks will be out today in full force saying global warming equals stronger storms.
Quoting TropicalBruce:
With Leslie and Michael displacing the A-B high, any disturbances trekking across the Atlantic in the deep tropics would have a hard time getting as far west as the eastern Caribbean before recurvature takes place. Next week might be a different story, but the Cape Verde season doesn't have much farther to go before it shuts down.

Wrong! Cape Verde season lasts till the end of September. Plenty of time that we still need to keep a lookout for storms from that region.
1170. yqt1001
Ugh another name wasted by the NHC. Come on guys, Michael is just another Jose.

Not that we wouldve known it wouldve beaten leslie to mh status 2 days ago...
This on the other hand, we have Leslie who still doesn't look the best.
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I wouldn't say perfect. It's tilted a bit from the southwest to northeast.


ok, then we'll just say perfectly circular. ;)
1173. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

I wouldn't say perfect. It's tilted a bit from the southwest to northeast.


You have a point but he looks lovely in the sat imagery.... anyways Michael in rainbow ...

1174. LargoFl
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
740 AM EDT THU SEP 6 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WESTERN CITY OF FREDERICKSBURG IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
SOUTHEASTERN CULPEPER COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...
NORTHERN SPOTSYLVANIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WESTERN STAFFORD COUNTY IN NORTHERN VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 830 AM EDT

* AT 735 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED 25 MILES WEST OF
MASSAPONAX...OR 15 MILES SOUTH OF CULPEPER...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MASSAPONAX...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS TO A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY
FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3839 7748 3816 7748 3819 7804 3834 7801
TIME...MOT...LOC 1140Z 269DEG 17KT 3826 7793

Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


ok, then we'll just say perfectly circular. ;)

Good enough for me. :)
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season has been quite interesting, for 13 storms, we had only 1 Major, and a bunch of General storms.

Turns out the 13th storm was not the unlucky one after all.
NHC is now down-playing 90L with 8am T.W.O.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR LATER TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SOUTHWARD AND STILL HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
1178. yqt1001
No doubt, it has been since Ophelia that we've had a storm this good looking in the ATL.



Took a long time for our first major though!
Quoting yqt1001:
Ugh another name wasted by the NHC. Come on guys, Michael is just another Jose.

Not that we wouldve known it wouldve beaten leslie to mh status 2 days ago...


So Michael is not a hurricane? Definitely not a wasted name. It is what it is and is a hurricane.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I can't even believe he pulled one on us!.Impressive storm and beautiful to.To believe people called him pathetic a few days ago.

Thats what these higher latitude storms have been doing.
Still he is a really good storm going out to sea.
1181. yqt1001
Quoting sporteguy03:


So Michael is not a hurricane? Definitely not a wasted name. It is what it is and is a hurricane.


Obvious sarcasm..should be obvious. :P

Just trying to get another poke in at the "Josecasters" for Michael.
1182. Michfan
At least Michael didn't make me regret having my name on the list this year.
Leslie is just ugly to look at...
I think this is a busted NHC track forecast.



No way Michael turns west, because it's pinned between the ridge and the trough, both of which are pushing it NE to E.




I seriously doubt Leslie makes it's timeline either, because it doesn't look like this trough is going to be enough to break it free from this pattern either.

Jammed in there nice and tight.



If it intensifies as expected:

1187. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Leslie is just ugly to look at...


All the lady storms this year have not impressed me

Ugly Leslie



and in rainbow

Quoting sporteguy03:


So Michael is not a hurricane? Definitely not a wasted name. It is what it is and is a hurricane.
Agree. Whether it's a land-falling storm or only affects maritime interest, if a tropical storm system meets the requirements of a hurricane, it is a hurricane.
Quoting VR46L:


All the lady storms this year have not impressed me

Ugly Leslie



and in rainbow

Just horrid.Good for Bermuda as they do not need a strong storm coming for them.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
Sportsguy03 you have your coffee yet. You completely missed the sarcasm Bud. I know you were up late last night watching the giants go down at home but now it's blogging time and time to get with it!
I missed the sarcasm as well. Pouring more coffee now!
Quoting VR46L:


All the lady storms this year have not impressed me

Ugly Leslie



and in rainbow


She sure is doing the walk of shame. It is the year of the man alright. And boy does that Michael look sexy in rainbow. Wow.
Got to go to school, have a great day everyone. I really wonder what I will come home to with Michael.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
I got back from swim practice and went to www.nhc.noaa.gov, put my cursor over michael and dropped a couple 4-letter words..

1 Major!!
Perfect eye.
lol rapid intensification tends to do this
I find quite strange that for the last 7 years now any storm that nears land within the Caribbean or United States has suffered greatly from dry air. I think the only land falling majors that we have had was Ivan at a CAT 4 in Cuba and then I think we have had a couple of storms that RI at the last minutes as they were making landfall into Mexico. I'll have to find the exact storms, but it certainly seems to be outside the normal distributions of what you would consider normal. Far outside it...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Micheal is a major?!!?? Whaaaaat?.


Totally!! I wasn't expecting that at all when i clicked on just now! LOL And son of Isaacs projected path, oh dear...What a mess...


Hey, well, if we don't get any other majors, maybe Michael will indeed be the Bad monster storm of the season, if just out of cat and wind speed :D Even if he is a wee lil' cutey LOL

okay i just woke up and im shocked to see michael as a major wow..i went to bed when it was minimal hurricane and i woke up watching the weather channel and i though i was dreaming when he said michael was a major hurricane!! this is why i love studying hurricanes there so unpredictable at times.
Quoting weatherh98:
lol rapid intensification tends to do this

Well obviously since its rapid intensification, the first major.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
I find quite strange that for the last 7 years now any storm that nears land within the Caribbean or United States has suffered greatly from dry air. I think the only land falling majors that we have had was Ivan at a CAT 4 in Cuba and then I think we have had a couple of storms that RI at the last minutes as they were making landfall into Mexico. I'll have to find the exact storms, but it certainly seems to be outside the normal distributions of what you would consider normal. Far outside it...


Isaac actually sifted dry air out but it wasnt a major

Wilma was the last... I think.... My memory sucks with Greek storms
Quoting wxchaser97:

Well obviously since its rapid intensification, the first major.


Go to school

Because I have to
1200. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

She sure is doing the walk of shame. It is the year of the man alright. And boy does that Michael look sexy in rainbow. Wow.


Dont ya know its my favourite form of sat imagery... Michael looks real hot in proper sat unenhanced and just really natural a real stud of a cane ....

Dr. Masters was right about Isaac tar-balls. Just don't know for certain if the source is the BP spill or the extent.

This excerpt was something, he didn't predict, and likely neither did anyone else: "...Hurricane Isaac washed ashore tens of thousands of dead "swamp rats" in the Gulf."

Tar Balls, Oily Pelicans Found in Isaac's Wake

Sorry if someone already posted this. Don't have time to read back through the blog this morning.
Storms approaching the USA naturally have dry air filtered into them unless they're cross Flordida from west to east or east to west. Coming towards the coast messes up the western quadrant of the storm. This is partially why Irene was a Cat 1 and not Cat 3.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Storms approaching the USA naturally have dry air filtered into them unless they're cross Flordida from west to east or east to west. Coming towards the coast messes up the western quadrant of the storm. This is partially why Irene was a Cat 1 and not Cat 3.

you scared me because i thought they were seeding these things with silver iodine. Phew.

Sarcasm flag obviously on for those who need a second cup of el cafe.
1204. VR46L
Quoting washingtonian115:
Just horrid.Good for Bermuda as they do not need a strong storm coming for them.


Yes very true ... still wonder when she will become extropical .... Kinda selfish of me but would not like her bearing down on me as a extrop storm
Quoting weatherh98:


Isaac actually sifted dry air out but it wasnt a major

Wilma was the last... I think.... My memory sucks with Greek storms


Isaac didn't shift out that dry air until after he pretty much made landfall. I Irene struggled with dry air, Alex struggled with dry air. Gustav managed to only stay at a CAT 2 after "core disruption" across the entire Gulf of Mexico. Even Katrina and Rita both managed to find ways to significantly weaken only when nearing land...
What's with the BLOB in the gulf?
Quoting Bobbyweather:
If Michael manages to become a Category 5 hurricane by this afternoon, it will be one of the fastest storms to strengthen from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane.

WILMA : 60, 65, 75, 130, 150, 160 (peak)
FELIX : 60, 65, 85, 90, 115, 150 (peak)
Michael : 60, 65, 95, , ,
(wind speeds in kt)


You can forget Cat 5, in spite of it's small size.

It does not have a favorable enough upper environment.

Plus, it looks like Michael actually peaked 2 or 3 hours ago.
Quoting tater5500:
What's with the BLOB in the gulf?

future Nadine maybe???
Quoting TomballTXPride:

future Nadine maybe???


Is it still on track to head to Florida?
1211. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

way to crap in the punch bowl on this lovely happy morning. haha. j/k. yeah forgot about our friends on the other side of the pond. Hopefully this thing poofs out after today.


LOL .... But that thing is going to be around for half the month I suspect
ATCF holding Michael at 100 knots:

AL, 13, 2012090612, , BEST, 0, 299N, 414W, 100, 964, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 10, 1015, 150, 10, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, MICHAEL, D,
Quoting VR46L:


LOL .... But that thing is going to be around for half the month I suspect

the way he is looking now probably. NHC has him crawling northward rather slow for that latitude. He ain't going away anytime soon that's for sure.

Quoting VR46L:


LOL .... But that thing is going to be around for half the month I suspect
Yeah.I predicted that Leslie will be around for three weeks.
If Micheal becomes a cat 5 at that altitude then I should expect a cat 6 or 7 in the MDR right?.
1216. VR46L
Same thing happened last September Both Katia and Maria were "fish" LOL
1217. GetReal


Quoting VR46L:
Same thing happened last September Both Katia and Maria were "fish" LOL

Yeah but nothing compared to my girl Julia. This one knew how to walk the red carpet.



Things starting to take shape in the West Africa area.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Things starting to take shape in the West Africa area.

Very interesting.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Very interesting.

train kept a rollin' all night long...
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Micheal becomes a cat 5 at that altitude then I should expect a cat 6 or 7 in the MDR right?.

minus the dry air and lack of vertical instability......yeah. lol
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Micheal becomes a cat 5 at that altitude then I should expect a cat 6 or 7 in the MDR right?.


Wash being a DOOMCASTER!! ;p haha Maybe someday though?! I always reckon would be WPac if ever one got that strong though
1224. kwgirl
Good morning. While watching GMA this morning I saw this blurb "Son of Isaac in GOM" with the blob circled and "Nadine?" next to it. Whoever wrote the headline needs to know it's a girl. LOL Everyone have a good day.
Shear coming back to Atlantic with trough

Quoting TomballTXPride:

Yeah but nothing compared to my girl Julia. This one knew how to walk the red carpet.




Julia sure was cooking, lol!!!
Quoting washingtonian115:
If Micheal becomes a cat 5 at that altitude then I should expect a cat 6 or 7 in the MDR right?.


Although it has not happened in the modern records, it must be possible.

Camille made landfall as a Category 5 at about 30.5N as a 165kts storm, which is 30kts above minimum for Cat 5.


As far as I can tell, Camille is the farthest north that an Atlantic storm has traveled as a cat 5 (in modern records,) and it did so easily, and would have gone a lot further if it hadn't run into land...
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Things starting to take shape in the West Africa area.


Further south too than its predecessors. We best keep an eye on this in case it decides to pull a Georges or Hugo.
1229. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Yeah but nothing compared to my girl Julia. This one knew how to walk the red carpet.





Now that is a prefect storm ...
1230. bassis
The other day everyone was ripping the designation of Michael that it was padding the numbers. I would be curious of what those thoughts are now after Michael has become a hurricane
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Things starting to take shape in the West Africa area.

This one could be trouble if it doesn't hitch a ride with a trough.
1232. SLU
This is almost as good as it gets. A "supercane" putting on a show in no man's land.

Quoting VR46L:


Now that is a prefect storm ...

And the most intense hurricane that far east in the Atlantic Basin. Julia got a gold medal for that. You can't give credit to GW for that one. that was all julia.
Quoting bassis:
The other day everyone was ripping the designation of Michael that it was padding the numbers. I would be curious of what those thoughts are now after Michael has become a hurricane

it would make no sense. YOu would think if such nonsense existed it would be the opposite since the NHC put out a below average can season this year. some ppl i tell ya...
Quoting SLU:
This is almost as good as it gets. A "supercane" putting on a show in no man's land.


small, compact, tight...the real mccoy.
Local Tampa Bay TV mets addressed 90L last night. Dennis Philip for one stated that he didn't think it would be come a td or ts, but def. a rainmaker for FL. Headed to FL this weekend. I think he said the word blob. So, there you have it.
Blog slowing way down this morning despite the fact there is a cat three in the atlantic lol. Hey largo, are you getting any of the storms moving off the gulf right now? Looks like I'll finally get some rain
This is Michael's intensity, as calculated by UW-CIMSS. That's about as vertical a rise as I've ever seen it produce. It's holding it steady at 107kts/123mph for now.

But SAB is showing a weaker storm that's in process of weakening further 06/1145 UTC 29.9N 41.3W T4.5/5.0 MICHAEL

Best guess is that the 11am advisory holds steady at 100kts.

1239. SLU
Quoting TomballTXPride:

small, compact, tight...the real mccoy.


for sure!
Meanwhile, here's Leslie over the same period. That's one mess of a storm.
Mike the Major





1244. MahFL
Quoting tater5500:
What's with the BLOB in the gulf?

Shear.
1247. Melagoo
Michael looks like Andrew little but full of energy ...

Quoting Melagoo:
Michael looks like Andrew little but full of energy ...


Hey harry andrew was full of lots of energy. ask the folks in homestead.
1249. GetReal
Station KIPN
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 28.085N 87.986W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 13:15:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (210) at 22.9 kt
Air Temperature: 78.8 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 8.7 nmi


Station 42363
Shell Oil
Location: 28.160N 89.22W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 13:15:00 UTC
Winds: NNE (20) at 23.3 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in
Air Temperature: 84.0 F
Dew Point: 72.0 F


Station KMIS
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 29.296N 88.842W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 13:15:00 UTC
Winds: E (80) at 8.9 kt
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 75.2 F
Visibility: 7.0 nmi


Station KGRY
Federal Aviation Administration
Location: 27.625N 90.441W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 13:20:00 UTC
Winds: NNW (330) at 8.0 kt gusting to 13.0 kt
Air Temperature: 84.2 F
Dew Point: 77.0 F
Visibility: 8.7 nmi


Offshore reporting stations ( the limited number reporting) indicate that there is likely a closed low level circulation with 90L... The highest winds reported were 23kts.
1250. GetReal
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Blog slowing way down this morning despite the fact there is a cat three in the atlantic lol. Hey largo, are you getting any of the storms moving off the gulf right now? Looks like I'll finally get some rain


School is in session...
Oh my..
Quoting washingtonian115:
Oh my..

mikey is bringing out the worst in some ppl wash.
icmoore i c u r hitting the ! button. Well done, Sir.
Quoting CloudGatherer:
Meanwhile, here's Leslie over the same period. That's one mess of a storm.


Station 41049
NDBC
Location: 27.500N 63W
Date: Thu, 06 Sep 2012 12:50:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (60°) at 42.7 kt gusting to 54.4 kt
Significant Wave Height: 27.2 ft

Dominant Wave Period: 11 sec
Mean Wave Direction: E (99°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.56 in and falling
Air Temperature: 76.8 F
Dew Point: 71.4 F
Water Temperature: 81.3 F


That's about 85 miles from the last Center fix.

1255. icmoore
Quoting TomballTXPride:
icmoore i c u r hitting the ! button. Well done, Sir.


Some things don't belong on this blog...you can drop the sir that would be my husband :)
Quoting bassis:
The other day everyone was ripping the designation of Michael that it was padding the numbers. I would be curious of what those thoughts are now after Michael has become a hurricane


I think people were saying it wasnt really worthy of being a storm yet, and the NHC was doing this thing just to pad the numbers, and they did things like Helene for that as well, but however offline their sentiments were, they didnt quite imply that this former TD would never be a storm, just that it wasnt quite one then and wasnt worthy of its name at that time.

(PS: I wasnt on their side in the argument, im just trying to point out some reasoning to make a fair argument)
Quoting icmoore:


Some things don't belong on this blog...you can drop the sir that would be my husband :)

Ok ma'am. keep it real okay. we like good clean fun on here. keep the rif raf on the other side of the tracks.
What developments can we expect from 90L?
Quoting CloudGatherer:
Meanwhile, here's Leslie over the same period. That's one mess of a storm.


Leslie might get downgraded to a Tropical Storm at this rate. Michael looks amazing, I would have thought that it would have been Leslie that would have the Category 3 on her at this point, and Michael the weakening TS a few days ago. Anyways, looks like we will have the possibility of another CV cyclone in a few days. The ECMWF, GFS, and UKMET are all showing a system by 5 days or so. Will have to watch for Nadine, as I am starting to doubt 90L will develop to anything more than a rainmaker for Florida.

Totals are up to 13-7-1, I'm still thinking we will see at least one more major hurricane, we've still got half a season to go. If not in September, then in October the possibility exists. I'm not so sure on a sudden season 'death' like in 2006, which had no storms after Isaac in late September. Insane activity for an El Nino year, who cares about whether they haven't hit the US or not besides Isaac, which was a bad storm, this hurricane season has been historic to me. Proof that the ENSO isn't the deciding factor for seasonal activity.
Well, looks like the conus has escaped another season without a strong storm impacting them. Just a couple of months left but highly doubt there is anything that could impact the U.S. the remainder of the season, the Atlantic is nothing but fish storms from here on out, the only place that could possibly get a storm would be the gulf states which is very slim.
Lots of spin, and stacked for the most part.



Yep


Its under 10-20kts of wind shear, and if it moves east it will hit 40kts.
Quoting RussianWinter:
What developments can we expect from 90L?


Its going to be a Category 6 Hurricane at FSU. :P

In all seriousness, i think we just need to wait and see if it can get to depression/very weak storm status before the impending trough in a day or 2 brings the proverbial "kitchen sink" of shear to 90L, either way, it will drift west, and will need to develop more before it turns back east with the trough and heads to FL.
Its a wait and see, follow organizational trends

Anyway guys, im back out.
1264. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Ok ma'am. keep it real okay. we like good clean fun on here. keep the rif raf on the other side of the tracks.



HAHA I didnt think humor was allowed .... what did I miss though?
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Ok ma'am. keep it real okay. we like good clean fun on here. keep the rif raf on the other side of the tracks.
or in a bunker
1266. Grothar
Looks like a new low wants to form closer to the convection. This would move the center quite a bit South before it starts its trek towards Florida.

Quoting mcluvincane:
Well, looks like the conus has escaped another season without a strong storm impacting them. Just a couple of months left but highly doubt there is anything that could impact the U.S. the remainder of the season, the Atlantic is nothing but fish storms from here on out, the only place that could possibly get a storm would be the gulf states which is very slim.


its possible for the US to get hit, it will have to be a very low rider though to escape the arctic "Trough Train"(2012 GeorgiaStormz)
Essentially it would have to be a caribbean storm and then get turned N/NE by a trough to hit the US especially the Eastern gulf coast/Florida, somewhat of a wilma type recurve.

Quoting mcluvincane:
Well, looks like the conus has escaped another season without a strong storm impacting them. Just a couple of months left but highly doubt there is anything that could impact the U.S. the remainder of the season, the Atlantic is nothing but fish storms from here on out, the only place that could possibly get a storm would be the gulf states which is very slim.


I would agree with you if storms were forming further east this year, but most of them have not got going until they have reached the islands, so what are you basing your reasoning on that the rest will season will be harmless?
1269. 7544
gulf blob looking a little better today but its really going further south than exspected imo looks like shear will lesssen soon has a window to form ?
Quoting mcluvincane:
Well, looks like the conus has escaped another season without a strong storm impacting them. Just a couple of months left but highly doubt there is anything that could impact the U.S. the remainder of the season, the Atlantic is nothing but fish storms from here on out, the only place that could possibly get a storm would be the gulf states which is very slim.


We are not even to the peak of the season and you are making bold predictions.

Anyway, it does not matter. Three storms have already impacted the US, and there are damages in the billions. This season has been far from a bust.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I would agree with you if storms were forming further east this year, but most of them have not got going until they have reached the islands, so what are you basing your reasoning on that the rest will season will be harmless?



The overall pattern, first of all, the east coast is pretty much out of the equation with the trough pattern which is normal this time of the year. The gulf might be open to a storm but like i said is very slim,
Quoting NOLALawyer:


We are not even to the peak of the season and you are making bold predictions.

Anyway, it does not matter. Three storms have already impacted the US, and there are damages in the billions. This season has been far from a bust.


Didn't say a bust there Sherlock. I said a strong storm, storms that have hit were not strong by no means
**We are not even to the peak of the season and you are making bold predictions.**

That's what I thought, along with "Way to make a Cat 6 hit Washington by way of Murphey's Law and hubris"!!

Quoting VR46L:



HAHA I didnt think humor was allowed .... what did I miss though?

whatever it was it was removed. lol
Quoting goosegirl1:
**We are not even to the peak of the season and you are making bold predictions.**

That's what I thought, along with "Way to make a Cat 6 hit Washington by way of Murphey's Law and hubris"!!


how's the doggie doing goose?
1276. GetReal
Quoting mcluvincane:



The overall pattern, first of all, the east coast is pretty much out of the equation with the trough pattern which is normal this time of the year. The gulf might be open to a storm but like i said is very slim,




I agree with your analysis about the east coast, with the current trough pattern in the clear. However, IMO, there is a better chance for a "home-grown" system in the GOM, or NW Caribbean that may cause concern in September and early October.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Didn't say a bust there Sherlock. I said a strong storm, storms that have hit were not strong by no means


Tell that to the people who were hit by Isaac.
Quoting GetReal:




I agree with your analysis about the east coast, with the current trough pattern in the clear. However, IMO, there is a better chance for a "home-grown" system in the GOM, or NW Caribbean that may cause concern in September and early October.


I would normally agree with you on the gulf as did leave that door open, but if something did form i don't think it would be all that strong. Shear and dry air have been active to this point and i dont really see any let up in those 2 factors
Where did harry potter go? Did I scare him off. Didn't mean too.
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a new low wants to form closer to the convection. This would move the center quite a bit South before it starts its trek towards Florida.



Good Eye Gro!

The CIMMS page support your thoughts, can 90L make it happen?
Quoting MNhockeymama:


Tell that to the people who were hit by Isaac.


I was there for Isaac, i don't think you are understanding me, I'm talking winds in strength Cat 3 or higher.
Quoting mcluvincane:


I was there for Isaac, i don't think you are understanding me, I'm talking winds in strength Cat 3 or higher.


Ok. :)
Quoting NOLALawyer:


We are not even to the peak of the season and you are making bold predictions.

Anyway, it does not matter. Three storms have already impacted the US, and there are damages in the billions. This season has been far from a bust.


Just ignore that guy, he is convinced still even after Isaac and Ike they have to be category 3 or higher to cause damage. Tell that to the people of Louisiana. Guy is either a troll, or seriously misinformed.
Quoting mcluvincane:
Well, looks like the conus has escaped another season without a strong storm impacting them. Just a couple of months left but highly doubt there is anything that could impact the U.S. the remainder of the season, the Atlantic is nothing but fish storms from here on out, the only place that could possibly get a storm would be the gulf states which is very slim.


You are pretty insensitive to say that with what just happened in Louisiana.
We can't forget about mikey!! we have our strong storm right here!!!

NO MAJOR OR
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER PRODUCER IS IN SIGHT APPROACHING THE REGION AT
LEAST FOR ANOTHER WEEK OR SO.


Considering this, 2012 is way different compared to 2010 and 2011. They have been saying the same for weeks. Looks like april here.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Just ignore that guy, he is convinced still even after Isaac and Ike they have to be category 3 or higher to cause damage. Tell that to the people of Louisiana. Guy is either a troll, or seriously misinformed.


Cyber I'm a female for one and definitely not a troll, i follow hurricanes for a living and been through more than you could imagine. You sir are out of line
Quoting mcluvincane:



The overall pattern, first of all, the east coast is pretty much out of the equation with the trough pattern which is normal this time of the year. The gulf might be open to a storm but like i said is very slim,


Trough patterns that help in August & September can turn around and bite you in the arse in October. Still most of September left ahead so a little premature IMO to declare the US safe for the rest of the month considering accurate forecasts go out 5 days...

Quoting mcluvincane:


Didn't say a bust there Sherlock. I said a strong storm, storms that have hit were not strong by no means


Oh, I'm sorry. I forgot we had someone here with a crystal ball. I will keep this comment in mind for the remainder of the season.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Things starting to take shape in the West Africa area.



More south than what the GFS/EURO are showing. I guess
Maybe I should have said major hurricanes hitting the conus. That should help with some of you novice bloggers
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Trough patterns that help in August & September can turn around and bite you in the arse in October. Still most of September left ahead so a little premature IMO to declare the US safe for the rest of the month considering accurate forecasts go out 5 days...



I think he is right... models only see fishes and drough
The forgotten community of Pearlington, MS...



1294. MahFL
Quoting TomballTXPride:
We can't forget about mikey!! we have our strong storm right here!!!



But Michael did not destroy NO, so it does not count, lol.
1295. will40
1291. mcluvincane 10:30 AM EDT on September 06, 2012


give it a break while you are still behind
1296. MahFL
Quoting mcluvincane:


Cyber I'm a female for one and definitely not a troll, i follow hurricanes for a living and been through more than you could imagine. You sir are out of line

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?
Quoting MahFL:

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?


I work with FEMA
Quoting MahFL:

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?


Insurance Adjustor
Fish it is already (nadine), fish it will stay forever

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensembl e/members/06ztropf216.html
Quoting MahFL:

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?


As do I ... I work assisting communities rebuild
2012 is a dry year. Look at the caribbean
1302. 7544
hmm 90l trying to get it together could it become a td by latter on today ?
1303. NEwxguy
The trough pattern is what makes the east coast up to us in New England the most vulnerable.We get hit here in new england in September more than any other month.Those troughs dig deeper in september and cause the systems to be pulled up the east coast,but its all about timing.When the TC gets to the islands and where the deep troughs are situated that determine if the US gets hit or out to sea.
Quoting CaribBoy:


I think he is right... models only see fishes and drough


If you consider those models beyond 5 days accurate then yes the statement is true.
...MICHAEL MAINTAINING CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE INTENSITY...
11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 6
Location: 30.1°N 41.3°W
Moving: NE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 115 mph


Mclluvin, I have been through a LOT too, so let's not bring up who's been in worse because I guatantee there people on here who had been through a lot and not gotten a single dime out of it. I may be out of line yes and I apologize but saying something like we haven't seen a strong storm is ridiculous. This is why we need a new scale, people focus too much on the category which are determined by winds. We need a point based scale that takes in account the maximum sustained winds, minimum pressure, winds, storm surge and amount of rainfall it produces. A category 1 with a 14 foot storm surge doesn't get anywhere near as much as attention a Cat 3 producing the same surge. Water is the killer, and Isaac, Irene, and Ike where all strong storms because of such.
Before the NHC posts it...Do you think they will cancel recon for 90L?
Quoting NEwxguy:
The trough pattern is what makes the east coast up to us in New England the most vulnerable.We get hit here in new england in September more than any other month.Those troughs dig deeper in september and cause the systems to be pulled up the east coast,but its all about timing.When the TC gets to the islands and where the deep troughs are situated that determine if the US gets hit or out to sea.

where jus been hiding bro??
1309. NEwxguy
Quoting TomballTXPride:

where jus been hiding bro??



lurking
Quoting NEwxguy:



lurking

Now that I do not like. Just do not like. Period.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Mclluvin, I have been through a LOT too, so let's not bring up who's been in worse because I guatantee there people on here who had been through a lot and gotten a single dime out of it. I may be out of line yes and I apologize but saying something like we haven't seen a strong storm is ridiculous. This is why we need a new scale, people focus too much on the category which re determined by winds. We need a point based scale that takes in account the maximum sustained winds, minimum pressure, winds, storm surge and amount of rainfall it produces. A category 1 with a 14 foot storm surge doesn't get anywhere near as much as attention a Cat 3 producing the same surge. Water is the killer, and Isaac, Irene, and Ike where all strong storms because of such.


Totally agree with your statement, I was simply just stating he conus hasn't been hit with a major in 7 years and still counting. Just a stat nothing more. I wasn't downgrading the storms that have it at all.
1313. Grothar
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Good Eye Gro!

The CIMMS page support your thoughts, can 90L make it happen?


It looks like it wants to move where there is less shear. I think they might have dropped it below 50% because it is in a higher shear environment. If it does drop further South and reforms into a depression, I think it would move more to Central Florida and back into the Atlantic.
1314. sar2401
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Before the NHC posts it...Do you think they will cancel recon for 90L?


Yes, I do. They are out of gas money and the credit card is maxed out. :)
1315. NEwxguy
Quoting TomballTXPride:

Now that I do not like. Just do not like. Period.


Safer that way my friend,avoiding the chaos in here, or should I say taking the path of least resistance.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051436
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.
1317. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Before the NHC posts it...Do you think they will cancel recon for 90L?


They will mos likely cancel it.
1318. 7544
t numbers up 1.0 might go
1319. sar2401
Quoting 7544:
hmm 90l trying to get it together could it become a td by latter on today ?


Wait a minute...didn't you say yesterday 90L was supposed to be a Code Red by this morning?
Quoting NEwxguy:


Safer that way my friend,avoiding the chaos in here, or should I say taking the path of least resistance.

I guess. I just miss her expertise brother. Tell her I said hey okay. And I picked Greenbay over the Pats in the superbowl. Sorry brother but it's just what I feel!
Quoting ecupirate:


Insurance Adjustor


High Voltage Lineman.
Here in PR is we are having a fairly dry  and hot Augusts - September.
Quoting CaribBoy:
2012 is a dry year. Look at the caribbean

this looks worse than Abrams in that purple potato sack dress that one day.

Based on this, I'd rate Leslie unofficially as an "10" on the HSI.



I'd rate Michael an 19 on HSI.



I ranked Isaac as a 20 at landfall.


1325. JasonRE
Is there any chance that Louisiana sees any of 90L? Lafayette here.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 051436
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1035 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-109


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM LESLIE
FLIGHT ONE --NASA872--
A. 07/0130Z
B. NASA872 0112A LESLIE SURVEILLANCE AV-6
C. 06/1900Z
D. 26.9N 63.3W
E. 07/0130Z TO 07/1130Z
F. 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
G. IP 30.1N 81.2W OUTFLOW LAYER AXIS CYCLONIC S TO N

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 71--
A. 06/1800Z D. 28.5N 87.8W
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
C. 06/1700Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:
A. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1200Z IF SUSPECT AREA DEVELOPS.
B. FIX OF TROPICAL STORM LESLIE AT 07/1800Z NEAR 26.6N 63.2W.

huh? which one is that?
1327. sar2401
Quoting StormJunkie:
The forgotten community of Pearlington, MS...





So true. If wasn't in Louisiana, you'd think, by just following the media, that nothing ever happened. MS is always just a "landmass". I'm glad to see the houses are still standing. I'll never forget Bay St. Louis after Katrina. :(
Quoting JasonRE:
Is there any chance that Louisiana sees any of 90L? Lafayette here.


Where were you? It already did yesterday morning. ;-)
Quoting MahFL:

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?


Hurricanes are big business. This place has members that are adjusters, contractors, attorneys and even FEMA employees.
1330. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

huh? which one is that?


Looks like they are going to fly on 90L.
1331. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:
this looks worse than Abrams in that purple potato sack dress that one day.



sure is a fugly mess!!

1332. MahFL
Quoting mcluvincane:


Cyber I'm a female for one and definitely not a troll, i follow hurricanes for a living and been through more than you could imagine. You sir are out of line


Ah you mean you've been through the aftermath of hurricanes.
Quoting sar2401:


Looks like they are going to fly on 90L.

yeah I know bit I am talking about that one going in Leslie which craft is that I don't remember hearing about it
Quoting VR46L:


sure is a fugly mess!!


actually looks prettier in that image as rainbow really shows her imperfections. But yeah still lots of work to do to look decent and hope it stays crappy for bermuda's sake.
oh.dont.forget.brothers.of.policians....they.do.goo d.too
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Hurricanes are big business. This place has members that are adjusters, contractors, attorneys and even FEMA employees.

Shills too. Can't forget those.
Quoting MahFL:

How do you make $ following hurricanes ?




Guy who follows storms and took the tree off my Dad's house after Ike.

Well, the image is not displaying but is in my photo album on WU. The guy has arm of tattoos with each storm he has chased and made money from.
1339. MahFL
I was wondering about how that person made $ from canes, not people in general lol. After Katrina the co I work for sold 1000's of generators and refridgerators.
hey guys we need a cat 5 out in the atlantic because we haven't had one since 07 that 5 year now
1341. MahFL
WXMOD will go nuts when he finds out a UAV is flying into Leslie, lol.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

yeah I know bit I am talking about that one going in Leslie which craft is that I don't remember hearing about it


I think this is it. Ryan RQ-4A Global Hawk flies as NASA 872. Its Air Force serial number is 00-2006. It was the sixth Global Hawk built by Ryan. Tropical Atlantic should link it with a pic once it's in the air.

Quoting MahFL:
WXMOD will go nuts when he finds out a UAV is flying into Leslie, lol.

ROFLMAO
1344. VR46L
Quoting TomballTXPride:

actually looks prettier in that image as rainbow really shows her imperfections. But yeah still lots of work to do to look decent and hope it stays crappy for bermuda's sake.


She looks like a bit like Isaac crossing around the keys ... a mess
That's yesterday's plan of the day though. They are running late with today's...
1346. roberie
Quoting Skyepony:


I think this is it. Ryan RQ-4A Global Hawk flies as NASA 872. Its Air Force serial number is 00-2006. It was the sixth Global Hawk built by Ryan. Tropical Atlantic should link it with a pic once it's in the air.



Yea that looks like it. Here is a link to the study they are doing with these long range planes.
Mikey likes it out there in the middle of nowhere. I do think we teased him a little to much about his size. So I dare not say to much about his location, he is an excitable young lad.
Quoting VR46L:


She looks like a bit like Isaac crossing around the keys ... a mess

yup exactly ...
Quoting Skyepony:


I think this is it. Ryan RQ-4A Global Hawk flies as NASA 872. Its Air Force serial number is 00-2006. It was the sixth Global Hawk built by Ryan. Tropical Atlantic should link it with a pic once it's in the air.


Note the altitude they are flying it at... 55k-65k. Isn't the G-IV's ceiling at 45k?
1350. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys we need a cat 5 out in the atlantic because we haven't had one since 07 that 5 year now


No, we dont need one....you just want one. :)
1351. VINNY04
Quoting Skyepony:


I think this is it. Ryan RQ-4A Global Hawk flies as NASA 872. Its Air Force serial number is 00-2006. It was the sixth Global Hawk built by Ryan. Tropical Atlantic should link it with a pic once it's in the air.

thats a nice craft! i think its ingenious to fly a UAV into storms.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys we need a cat 5 out in the atlantic because we haven't had one since 07 that 5 year now

Let me guess, you want it to go right over your house, too?

I would be perfectly fine to not have a cat 5 for another 5 years. I'm also sure that 99.999999999% of the western Atlantic coast would be happy with it, too.
Quoting NEwxguy:



lurking

Didn't recognize you without the Flying Elvis!
1354. sar2401
Quoting jeffs713:

Note the altitude they are flying it at... 55k-65k. Isn't the G-IV's ceiling at 45k?


Yep, the service ceiling is 45k, but it will do 50k if it has to. I've been wondering when the were going to fly the UAV. I think this really the future for HH aircraft.
1355. wpb
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_moni toring/enso_advisory/index.shtml
Quoting mcluvincane:


Cyber I'm a female for one and definitely not a troll, i follow hurricanes for a living and been through more than you could imagine. You sir are out of line
Your a female o_0?.
1357. 7544
90l now moving southward
Quoting jeffs713:

Let me guess, you want it to go right over your house, too?

I would be perfectly fine to not have a cat 5 for another 5 years. I'm also sure that 99.999999999% of the western Atlantic coast would be happy with it, too.
The one percent is JFV.
1359. VINNY04
Quoting sar2401:


Yep, the service ceiling is 45k, but it will do 50k if it has to. I've been wondering when the were going to fly the UAV. I think this really the future for HH aircraft.
it is because it will take out the possibility of people dying if a plane goes down.
1360. Grothar
Quoting washingtonian115:
The one percent is JFV.


That would be .000000001% :)
1361. LargoFl
Quoting GTcooliebai:
say GT..local met said my area got an inch of rain this morning, man it sure poured rain by me for awhile there..how about your area?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting roberie:


Yea that looks like it. Here is a link to the study they are doing with these long range planes.


Good link, thanks. I knew it was some high altitude microwave & such but that might help find some of the data.

Quoting jeffs713:

Note the altitude they are flying it at... 55k-65k. Isn't the G-IV's ceiling at 45k?


This is almost like a controlled satellite, but low enough your dropsondes don't burn up.
1364. sar2401
Quoting VINNY04:
it is because it will take out the possibility of people dying if a plane goes down.


That's one consideration, I'm sure, but the range, sensor capabilities, and higher ceiling are really selling points. The Global Hawk can put a Hellfire missile right down the chimney of a house anywhere from 500 to 50,000 feet, so looking into a hurricane should be relatively easy with the sensor package on those babies. :)
1365. VINNY04
Quoting sar2401:


That's one consideration, I'm sure, but the range, sensor capabilities, and higher ceiling are really selling points. The Global Hawk can put a Hellfire missile right down the chimney of a house anywhere from 500 to 50,000 feet, so looking into a hurricane should be relatively easy with the sensor package on those babies. :)
yah true. i didnt think about that. I love those drones!
1366. LargoFl
1367. GetReal



Link


I am not predicting 90L to do so, but it does appear to be still sinking south. If by some chance 90L does happen to get south of 24N, and is no more than a TD, it may not get whisked off towards the east with that trough.
Quoting MahFL:
I was wondering about how that person made $ from canes, not people in general lol. After Katrina the co I work for sold 1000's of generators and refridgerators.


One thing you regular bloggers should be proud of is the amount of education you give those of us who follow the hurricanes - I learn more here every year than I do anywhere else.

Re: making money following hurricanes, it is a hard thing to explain to people that one gets a little excited when the hurricanes start looking like they'll make landfall in the US - do not wish harm to anyone, but do look forward to weeks/months of really good work for my husband when he goes to help with the power restoration. We can't do a lot to help here in MN, so it feels like I'm sending help to the people affected; hubs calls and says, "Well, we just LIT UP A TOWN!" He also likes to help and really enjoys getting electricity back up for people who lose it during storms.
1369. VR46L
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys we need a cat 5 out in the atlantic because we haven't had one since 07 that 5 year now


Umm No thanks ...
1370. VINNY04
Quoting VR46L:


Umm No thanks ...
i second that! maybe a cat 1 or 2. but not more than that.
Quoting jeffs713:

Let me guess, you want it to go right over your house, too?

I would be perfectly fine to not have a cat 5 for another 5 years. I'm also sure that 99.999999999% of the western Atlantic coast would be happy with it, too.


best chance for a five would be latter half of the the peak
2nd week of october on
side winder moving ne ward
from the sw carb nw carb
cen boc in gom
Quoting Grothar:
Looks like a new low wants to form closer to the convection. This would move the center quite a bit South before it starts its trek towards Florida.

Yes. One can see the naked swirl north of the blob. The big blob may have hard time wrapping around the low, but you never know. In any event, the cold front is forecast to catch it and pull it towards central or north FL.. A lot of rain headed that way. If nothing forms in a day or so, the shear will guarantee nothing other than a rainmaker. Which by the way is fine with me. In fact, could even do without the rain as well.
1373. InPCola
Quoting MNhockeymama:


We can't do a lot to help here in MN, so it feels like I'm sending help to the people affected; hubs calls and says, "Well, we just LIT UP A TOWN!" He also likes to help and really enjoys getting electricity back up for people who lose it during storms.

Thank goodness there are people who enjoy doing it, I can't imagine where we'd be after a storm if all the power company workers were just in it for the money and took no personal satisfaction in the work. Tell him that we do appreciate it, and most people who haven't been through a big storm can't imagine how much we do. It's just so much easier to deal with everything else when you can have lights and AC vs. a hot and humid house for days to weeks after, oppressively dark both from the lack of power and from shutters if you put them up.

It's amazing how just having light that isn't coming from a candle or flashlight can cheer you after a storm. Even if it's also showing you the extent of the damage you've taken more clearly... :p
Michael tied with Gordon in pressure. 965mb.